Merry Vaxmas

Christmas Eve eve. We crave good news. So, here we go.

It’s got a few names. Like, ‘vaccine lift.’ And ‘game-changer.’ Of course there’s the standard, ‘pent-up demand.’ The always-welcomed, ‘unleashed torrent’. And my new fav, ‘permanent reopening.’

This is the current econo-lingo being used to describe where we are, where we’re going. So even as the country swoons into a series of maudlin Christmas days, snow, lockdowns, gray and red zones, Zoomy, boozy days, mutated pathogens and hockey deprivation, there is hope. Tons of it. All pandemics are temporary. They pass. You know this. And the 2020 version – say the economists – will soon start puddling away like disgusting moist little bat drool that it is.

Now why the optimism in the midst of a Second Wave that has Jason Kenney and Doug Ford sounding like socialists?

Well, the virus was always going to fade but the historic development of new vaccines has put everything on fast-forward. First Pfizer. Today Moderna, Then the Oxford serum. Millions then billions of doses being turned out, distributed and administered, creating herd immunity, lessening the instance and severity of disease, rescuing the health care system, allowing lockdowns to end, bolstering consumer confidence, reigniting human society, fluffing the GDP and, yes, unleashing that torrent of money governments have thrown around.

The result, according to the latest Bloomberg survey, is for annualized GDP growth of almost 5.5% in the last three quarters (nine months) of 2021. That’s yuge. A big hike over the 3.8% last forecast. It’s historically significant. Compare it (5.5%) to growth of just 2% in 2017, 3% in 2016 and 1% in 2017. In fact the last time we hit a number like this was back in 2007.

The vax is the flame. But the tinder is money.

There’s a big pile of it. Just look at the stories lately of cake-ladies and students who earned barely $5,000 in 2019 but were sent CERB cheques totalling $12,000 or $18,500 in 2020. The feds doled out more than $250 billion in direct cash transfers to individuals, which CIBC says has resulted in a $90 billion pile of money in savings accounts. In fact Bloomberg now estimates there is $103 billion sitting in Canadians’ personal chequing accounts – a 34% ballooning in a single year, and the most in three decades. Yikes.

Now in Canadians’ chequing accounts: $103 billion

When will the money-hoarding stop and the spending begin?

Not until the stores open again, of course. In locked-down Ontario that will happen around the end of January. Combined with this there needs to be a lot of vaxing on a wide-scale basis, plus some indication Covid infections have peaked and started to wane. Even now there are faint glimmers. NB’s premier says his province will be virus-free and open again in mere weeks. In NS there are but 35 souls out of a million population who are sick, with zero in hospital. Are these harbingers?

The economists add they’re sure the T2 gang will keep on spending as no government in history has done before. Your grandchildren may curse and blaspheme you, but in the meantime it’s a free-money-no-pants-fiesta. So combined with the mountain of personal savings and a central bank that crashed rates and is buying up $4 billion a week in government bonds to artificially suppress yields, this is a formula for growth.

Laurentian Bank economist Dominique Lapointe sums it nicely: “In the case of a permanent reopening starting toward the end of the second half of 2021, the elevated household savings rate could unleash major pent-up demand, especially on the services side of the economy.”

There it is: ‘permanent reopening.’

So what could go wrong to prevent this from happening?

Two things.

The vax might not work. Or you might not take it.

Then we send that dog to slime your face.

About the picture: Mochi ‘Mo’ Rickert is a female St Bernard from South Dakota with a tongue that is officially, vet-measured, 7.3 inches. That is the longest pink oral canine appendage in the world. “Mo is resilient, comical, loving and eternally grateful and loyal to us – her forever family,” say her owners.  “This once abused and neglected pup has taught us that it’s okay to be different. We are proud of her unique feature.”

130 comments ↓

#1 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 12.23.20 at 2:16 pm

Canadian oil stocks on the rise again today guys.

Get in before it’s too late.

#2 Mossy on 12.23.20 at 2:17 pm

So, the narrative is all over the place. A mere 9 months ago, Canadians carried the most personal debt in the OECD, then Canadians saved massively during the lockdown, but they (and not pesky foreign investors) were going crazy with home renovations and buying up real estate (with those same savings I assume). So, which is it? Is Canada a basket case or will the good times be back again?

#3 truefacts on 12.23.20 at 2:22 pm

Garth – thanks for the positive news – we all need that.

I hope the vaccine works for the benefit of those at risk, but shouldn’t this all end regardless of the outcome of the vax (based on history)?

The first case of the Spanish Flu was recorded March of 2018 and by the summer of 1919, the flu pandemic came to an end…

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic

So if it followed a similar trajectory, shouldn’t this be behind us by the fall of 2021 regardless? I admit I’m no expert, so open to correction, but looking for optimism at this point…

#4 KNOW IT ALL on 12.23.20 at 2:23 pm

Or this could happen….

Hollywood vets organizing maskless protests.

How screwed we are.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/23/entertainment/kirk-cameron-protests/index.html

#5 G on 12.23.20 at 2:29 pm

Additionally there’s that Russia’s Sputnik V. With 4 vax now available hopefully the world can see “normal” again (-wars) sooner than was first hoped back in Jan. My fingers are crossed. 2021 should be better for everyone, hopefully.

#6 Dolce Vita on 12.23.20 at 2:36 pm

Vax Populi.

———————

PS:

Grazie for using “maudlin”.

I just realized now how much I missed that word.

#7 Piano_Man87 on 12.23.20 at 2:39 pm

90 billion in additional savings =~ $2400 for each Canadian.

If that were enough to goose the economy, you’d think the US would’ve seen a huge bump from their $1200 USD stimulus cheques they got months ago.

Or, you could believe these economists. Their predictions are always so accurate…

The sum currently in chequing accounts equals $10,800 per household. To be accurate – Garth

#8 Niagara Region on 12.23.20 at 2:41 pm

Article on money laundering and real estate in wealthy nations:
https://www.brecorder.com/news/40043895
(Publisher in Business Recorder, Dec. 23, 2020)

#9 Joseph R. on 12.23.20 at 2:44 pm

#4 KNOW IT ALL on 12.23.20 at 2:23 pm
Or this could happen….

Hollywood vets organizing maskless protests.

How screwed we are.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/23/entertainment/kirk-cameron-protests/index.html

————————————————————

Kirk Cameron is the antithesis of a Hollywood star.
Kirk Cameron is a darling of the Conservative movement. Frequently invited to Fox News and other conservative outlets to spew his rants about the “War on Christmas”:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/christian-vote-election-trump-biden-kirk-cameron-religious-liberty

But I agree with you, Conservative Christians activists are dangerous to our efforts to contain the pandemic and therefore our society.

#10 Stone on 12.23.20 at 2:48 pm

When will the money-hoarding stop and the spending begin?

Not until the stores open again, of course. In locked-down Ontario that will happen around the end of January.

———

January of what year? Please. Indulge me.

#11 Dolce Vita on 12.23.20 at 2:51 pm

I ‘dunno Garth about 2021.

2020 was the year of Covid.

2021 the year of Vax.

In Italia, starting Dec. 27th and we are sitting on 1.8M doses of Prizer, our Vaccine Czar Domenico Arcuri reckons by October 2021, 70% of Italia vaccinated.

In Rome we have a vaccine plant that produces the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine to the tune of 450M doses/yr (it also churned all of the test vaccine for trials in various countries of the World).

I do not think Canada will do that much better so expect late Autumn for the 70% herd immunity number to be achieved (provided that is the number or it could be 50%, 60%, 80%…who knows AND most of the HERD wants to be vaccinated).

Then all that assumes vaccine efficacy is as advertised and who knows if it is true? I hope so.

Then HUMAN NATURE, the “gun shy” effect. The jab takes 31 days to give immunity so October herd will see there’s November 2020, some time?

Add a month for that “JE NE SAIS QUOIS” and you have it.

——————————

So My Liege, party balloons/hats, noise makers Jan. 1, 2022. The night before humanity will have good reason to get DUNG FACED.

Yes indeed.

#12 Bill on 12.23.20 at 2:54 pm

And Horgan’s on the free money handout plan.
The less well off one is the easier your bought off.
If there’s so much money in bank accounts then why?
What a world.

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.23.20 at 2:55 pm

CERB stimulus rebooting the economy in the Summer and Fall of 2021 may be welcomed by many jobless people but wont that goose inflation?

#14 Flop... on 12.23.20 at 2:56 pm

#7 Piano_Man87 on 12.23.20 at 2:39 pm
90 billion in additional savings =~ $2400 for each Canadian.

If that were enough to goose the economy, you’d think the US would’ve seen a huge bump from their $1200 USD stimulus cheques they got months ago.

Or, you could believe these economists. Their predictions are always so accurate…

The sum currently in chequing accounts equals $10,800 per household. To be accurate – Garth

/////////////////////

Hey Billy Joel, I’ve put this up a couple of times but with the second round of stimulus seeing light at the end of the tunnel, I might as well go again.

The Federal Reserve tracked the first round and concluded 71 cents out of every dollar did not go directly back into the economy.

Americans, it appears, are in the defensive position.

Most of the money people kept as savings or as debt repayment.

Trump apparently wants the next batch to be $2000, I think.

The people over at CNN should probably get $5000 for all the trauma he has caused them the last 4 years…

M46BC

#15 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.23.20 at 2:59 pm

I’m hearing that Trudeau is alerting his troops to be on election alert, once this is over.
He may run on UBI.
2021 will be an interesting year, for sure.

#16 Dustin on 12.23.20 at 3:04 pm

Garth, you’ve mentioned scotch on here a couple times in passing. I know this isn’t a whiskey blog. The advice offered on here has changed my perspective entirely (MSU), but ever since the pandemic started I’ve been really expanding my horizons and budget for scotch. Can you please share what kind of Scotch a wealthy 1%’er like yourself drinks, so I can get myself a bottle for Christmas.

#17 cmccullo on 12.23.20 at 3:04 pm

Merry Christmas, Garth. The blog is fun reading, as always. I’m an essential caregiver for my aunt in LTC. I’ll be getting the shot as soon as I can. I’m sure most Canadians will step up. There are more than enough of us folks who care about others to make up for the lunatic fringe.

#18 Dolce Vita on 12.23.20 at 3:13 pm

#9 Joseph R.

You must be American:

“our efforts”?

Late November Leger poll says majority of Canadians want to be vaccinated including the wait and see if the early adopters start dropping like flies crowd (17% say no to the vaccine…tough talkers until their brethren start to die).

Worse they do not trust the Americans and other foreign devils:

“Seventy-eight per cent of those asked said they either strongly agree (48 per cent) or somewhat agree (30 per cent) that cross-border travel should be prevented to people that refuse to take the vaccine for the novel coronavirus.

In addition, 83 per cent agreed with barring people from the US and elsewhere from entering Canada without vaccination.”

—————————-

From the above numbers, even the wait and see fence sitters, will take the vaccine when you consider what they think about the UNVAXED.

As for the American numbers, you’re on your own.

#19 C V on 12.23.20 at 3:21 pm

Half the hospitalization are over 70 years old, if everyone over the age of 70 got the vaccine(if it works) our hospitals would be fine and we could open everything. I don’t see why it would be necessary for everyone to get vaccinated

Without herd immunity it will never leave us. Get the damn shot. – Garth

#20 Guelph Guru on 12.23.20 at 3:23 pm

The summer of 2021 would be the greatest party in the history of mankind.
Book your summer vacation now before inflation kicks in.
Time to buy CCL on dips.

#21 Bill on 12.23.20 at 3:24 pm

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.23.20 at 2:55 pm
CERB stimulus rebooting the economy in the Summer and Fall of 2021 may be welcomed by many jobless people but wont that goose inflation?
———————————–
The velocity of money is the key. Its got to get spent to push inflation.

#22 Joseph R. on 12.23.20 at 3:25 pm

#18 Dolce Vita on 12.23.20 at 3:13 pm
#9 Joseph R.

You must be American:

“our efforts”?

——————————————————–

No. I am not American. The pandemic requires a worldwide effort in order to eradicate it.

#23 Armpit on 12.23.20 at 3:33 pm

Nice one, Garth

“GDP growth of almost 5.5% in the last three quarters (nine months) of 2021. That’s yuge.”

Yuge = Trump enunciation of Huge https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEA33bAXyNM

Worse word of the year???
UNPRECEDENTED!

#24 Pivo on 12.23.20 at 3:36 pm

There is WFH opinion (hi Garth!) and then there’s evidence…which one do you believe?

https://nbloom.people.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj4746/f/wfh.pdf

A study of low-wage Chinese company call centre employees. Yeah, sounds legit. – Garth

#25 dgb on 12.23.20 at 3:43 pm

Garth just want to say thank you for this Blog of yours….I wish you and your Dorothy a Merry and Blessed Christmas…stay safe out there eh, the pandemic will come to pass …yes indeed !!!
f67bc

#26 Victoria on 12.23.20 at 3:44 pm

My daughter told me of 20 somethings posting what they bought with the CERB on instagram – Trudeau Bucks. I know a woman of a certain age that used her CERB money for Botox and fillers. LOL. This is just crazy.

#27 Phil on 12.23.20 at 3:47 pm

Half the hospitalization are over 70 years old, if everyone over the age of 70 got the vaccine(if it works) our hospitals would be fine and we could open everything. I don’t see why it would be necessary for everyone to get vaccinated

Without herd immunity it will never leave us. Get the damn shot. – Garth
————————————-
I don’t think virus’ ever really leave, they just fade …and wait.

#28 Doug t on 12.23.20 at 3:51 pm

#16 Dustin

Tomatin very nice

#29 George S on 12.23.20 at 3:56 pm

It would be interesting to hear from people that are actually working from home at full time jobs that require them to be paying attention to what they are doing all day long. My children and their spouses all work from home at jobs like that. They treat their workday just like when they go in to the office and have their workstations set up at home in separate home offices. Right now they only go in to work every now and then for a face to face meeting.

I suspect that if you are really serious about working at home you would need to get a nanny or a full time babysitter to take care of things around the house and the children because all you are saving is the commute (and possibly getting dressed). You still have to be “at work” for your 8 or whatever hours a day.

#30 Gregg in Victoria on 12.23.20 at 3:57 pm

It’s historically significant. Compare it (5.5%) to growth of just 2% in 2017, 3% in 2016 and 1% in 2017. In fact the last time we hit a number like this was back in 2007.

Just curious, what were Bloomberg’s predictions for the following year on December 23 of 2015 & 2016??

#31 Dolce Vita on 12.23.20 at 4:00 pm

#10 Stone

“January of what year? Please. Indulge me.”

2022 with a bunch of snake eye rolls:

-Vaccine efficacy as advertised.
-70% for herd immunity.
-Late Autumn herd immunity achieved.
-The Kanuckistan FREE RANGE herd does what is says in getting vaccinated.
-H501Y doesn’t mutate into something more deadly.
-H501Y stays the heck out of Canada (fat chance of that happening with 1500 or so UK flights since Sept, its UK birth month).

You can probably come up with a few more caveats on your own I’m sure.

Jan 1 2022 optimistic (and that’s for the Developed World).

——————-

Euro VIRUS PORN (UK traced more virulent H501Y’s birthplace to Kent, England, image purloined from #plagueIsland on Twitter):

https://i.imgur.com/Rqz51KA.png

I’d post the Queen Elizabeth Dec. 25th 3PM Christmas day opening remarks parody image of HRH but I don’t think My Liege would like it.

Hint above within the braces where to find the egregious image (one foul language word) and you just have to love the plucky Brits and that wonderful dry sense of humour they have.

Kick the dung out of H501Y fast Rule Britannia, like yesterday fast.

#32 Breaking News on 12.23.20 at 4:05 pm

DELETED

#33 Dolce Vita on 12.23.20 at 4:09 pm

#22 Joseph R.

True about the World effort but 83% of the Kanuckistan FREE RANGE herd disagree.

They think they can close the entire country to the UNVAXED including foreign devil America.

The other 17%, well…they’ll either die from Covid or cave in eventually.

#34 TurnerNation on 12.23.20 at 4:10 pm

Some say Small business is being targeted as they are least likely to be enforcing ‘The Mark’.
Global corporations only. Cashless shopping. All linked to your UBI and Social Credit score? Dunno.

– For the doomers some seasonal trends:

https://www.kflaphi.ca/aces-pandemic-tracker/
Disclaimer: This dashboard was developed by KFL&A Public Health. The application and use of this dashboard is the responsibility of the user. KFL&A Public Health assumes no liability resulting from any such application or use.

— Or how about this…in Q1 I said many times here ‘Every system designed to protect us has been turned against us’. Let’s see

https://www.diagnosticimaging.com/view/the-covid-19-results-are-in-lung-cancer-preventive-screenings-are-down-patient-outcomes-worse

The news may not be surprising, but a study published today verifies what many providers in the industry feared would happen during the pandemic – the drop in lung cancer screenings due to canceled or postponed services has led to worse patient outcomes.

Since the start of the pandemic, cross-sectional analyses have revealed a 46-percent plummet in new cancer diagnoses nationwide across six common forms of cancer, including lung cancer.

The most concerning impact of the pandemic-era screening drop, though, was the significant increase Van Haren’s team identified in patients with lung nodules that could be cancerous (Lungs-RADS 4). After screenings re-started, the detection rate for these nodules rose from 8 percent to 29 percent.

#35 ts on 12.23.20 at 4:11 pm

#9 Joseph R. on 12.23.20 at 2:44 pm

Kirk Cameron is absolutely right. He at least has the courage to stand by his convictions and stance on religious freedoms. As far as not wearing a mask, I believe many of the BLM protesters were not wearing masks and gathered in much larger groups for weeks, if not months. The real “danger” are people like you who
want to take away people’s religious freedoms.

Nobody has the ‘religious freedom’ to infect another person. Grow up. – Garth

#36 Howard on 12.23.20 at 4:12 pm

This is fascinating.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/12/20/breath-taking-spike-in-china-us-container-freight-rates-triggers-mad-possibly-illegal-scramble-for-empties-us-farmers-twist-in-the-wind/

Americans using their Covid bucks to order so much crap off Amazon that, for example :

…the Port of Los Angeles reported that imports of “loaded” containers for the four months of August, September, October, and November soared by 22% from the prior year, to 1.96 million TEU. This surge was the opposite of what happened during the Financial Crisis

#37 Howard on 12.23.20 at 4:21 pm

Kevin O’Leary said in an interview today that he slashed his exposure to commercial real estate from 31% down to 8%. He thinks WFH is a longterm trend and also sees manufacturers increasingly bypassing retail and selling direct to consumer.

#38 Kothar on 12.23.20 at 4:30 pm

What about the carbon tax scam? Just got my Enbridge gas statement. Used $22 in gas for month but charged $72 in user fees delivery fees and not one but two various taxes listed. And on top of all that they charge HST on all of it?! So you are paying hst on the carbon tax?! Why do you have to pay a tax on a tax never to see it again? Also why do you have to pay a tax on top of advisor fees??

#39 Dr V on 12.23.20 at 4:47 pm

16 Dustin

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6907891-stop-acting-rich

#40 UCC on 12.23.20 at 4:55 pm

Without herd immunity it will never leave us. Get the damn shot. – Garth

Even with herd immunity it will never leave us. This is slimy pathogen is here forever.

#41 Tron Light on 12.23.20 at 4:58 pm

“It is not known if the vaccine can prevent infection.” This is on the information being sent to people who will be vaccinated…

Anyway, I didn’t collect any of those CERB bucks so I didn’t benefit from increased savings. However, I didn’t lose my job either but it seems a little unfair for people to be collecting more than they were actually making only to go out after and buy motorcycles, etc…

#42 Freedom First on 12.23.20 at 4:59 pm

To Garth, Dorothy, and all your loved ones, I sincerely wish you a peaceful, joyous,
“Merry Christmas”, and a very “Happy New Year!”

Freedom First

#43 jess on 12.23.20 at 5:04 pm

…”Another new, potentially more infectious variant of the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19 has been found in Britain in cases linked to South Africa, British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said on Wednesday.
South Africa’s health department said last week that a new genetic mutation of the virus had been discovered and might be responsible for a recent surge in infections there.”
“Thanks to the impressive genomic capability of the South Africans, we’ve detected two cases of another new variant of coronavirus here in the UK,” Hancock told a media briefing. “Both are contacts of cases who have travelled from South Africa over the past few weeks.”
Britain is already trying to curb the spread of a mutated strain of the virus which is up to 70 per cent more transmissible, and further studies are being carried out on the new variant.
“This new variant is highly concerning, because it is yet more transmissible, and it appears to have mutated further than the new variant has been discovered in the UK,” he said.
Close contacts of those with the new variant and all those who have been in South Africa in the last fortnight, or were in close contact with someone who had, must quarantine, he said. Immediate restrictions were being imposed on travel from South Africa, he added.
Countries around the world have in recent days closed their borders to both Britain and South Africa following the identification of the new, fast-spreading variants of the coronavirus. “So the new variant in the UK, which we’ve identified, is very different to the variant in South Africa, it’s got different mutations,” said Susan Hopkins from Public Health England.
“Both of them look like they’re more transmissible. We have more evidence on the transmission for the UK variant because we’ve been studying that with great detail with academic partners. We’re still learning about the South African variant.”
She expressed confidence that the spread of the South Africa-linked variant would be controlled and said vaccines that have already been developed should be effective.

Canada wants to tax phantom foreign homebuyers to rein in red-hot property pricesfrom the 1940’s and current

-student loans vs auto loans
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/HIST/cc_hist_memo_levels.html

#44 just a dude on 12.23.20 at 5:04 pm

Garth, please keep these great, encouraging posts coming. Thank you.

Looking forward to getting that vax jab and doing my part to trash that beast of a virus. Until then, I shall remain grateful for all the good that abounds around us, support the local charities best I can and will continue to do what I can to support local small businesses.

I wish you, Dorothy, the entire team at Turner Investments and fellow readers a peaceful holiday season.

#45 Sydneysider on 12.23.20 at 5:09 pm

Data from the trials of the Oxford/AstraZenaca virus have been published in the Lancet:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext

If this were submitted to a physical science journal, it would be sent back for revision. You could drive a train through some of the holes in the methodology and discussion.

The unstated literal meaning of the data is that the lower the vaccine dose, the greater the efficacy (halving the first dose increased efficacy by one third) (sic).

More probably, the authors have not got the statistics under control. By my estimate, the efficacy estimates could be out by 15%, just based on the (Poisson) statistics of random events. This would explain most if not all of the dose-related effects in terms of statistical fluctuations in the small number of infected people (<1% of those vaccinated in the trial). We will have to wait for more data to really pin down the efficacy. Their model is not well-specified (not a single equation in the paper), and since they withhold even the anonymised raw data, it is clear that they don't want others to check their modelling.

The efficacy estimates refer to healthy adults, most of whom were from Brazil or South Africa, developing countries where prior exposure to coraviruses might be different from the typical Canadian.

The vaccine is clearly safe, after observations on thousands of people. More people reacted to the placebo than to the vaccine.

#46 Coho on 12.23.20 at 5:27 pm

Will the vaccines deliver us from Covid, or is it more accurate that Covid has delivered the vaccines?

Since the start, there has been clamouring for vaccines while at the same time treatments suppressed and ridiculed as quackery. Why? Seems like vaccines have been shoe horned into the equation. And already there is back peddling as to their effectiveness. Prediction: Lockdowns of varying degrees will be permanent despite vaccines.

Touted by many as a miracle from God, Covid vaccines have given people hope for a return to the way things were. Perhaps we are truly blessed since it appears that multiple pharmas have produced their own version of a “miracle vaccine” and at the same time, no less. Okay…..

Since it is Christmastime, for those of us inclined, let us honour Jesus Christ and remember what He stood for. He was/is, the ultimate contrarian. He spoke the Truth which infuriated the established powers at the time. He was anti-establishment and was crucified for it. The same force/mentality that put Him to death continues to rule the material world. There is only room for state approved contrarianism these days all because of Covid.

Will the vaccines deliver us from Covid and the emerging police state in the Western World? Time will tell. If Covid really came from a bat in a wet market and the ruling elite frantically rolled out vaccines in order to save humanity–then yes. If the new normal and global inoculation is by design, and proven treatments have been blunted in favour of vaccines, then what are the vaccines really for? Perhaps we better start praying like never before.

#47 calgaryPhantom on 12.23.20 at 5:29 pm

I’m afraid that the pent-up demand won’t come soon.
We talk a lot about recency bias over here, and this would affect people for a much longer time. Most people will be reluctant to spend wildly fearing the resurgence of the virus and would keep some sort of safety net.

With huge govt debts, lowest interest rates and possibly no inflation for a while, deflation is a very likely scenario.

#48 Reality cheque on 12.23.20 at 5:39 pm

Garth, love your optimism ..but.. will vaccines work on the new mutant strains…AND.. you really think all will be ok with our Health Care and Hospitals?.. did you forget Hallway Medicine in our hospitals… BEFORE Covid?

#49 earthboundmisfit on 12.23.20 at 5:48 pm

Mcallan 18

#50 Flop... on 12.23.20 at 5:50 pm

In a normal year, I’d be getting on a plane today or tomorrow and spending quality time with the wife in the sun.

Got the rug ripped out from underneath me by the government just before Spring Break, had a little bit more time to accept this one.

Still sucks the big one.

Growing up in Australia, in a truly dysfunctional family, this song always comes to mind this time of year…

M46BC

How To Make Gravy….Paul Kelly.

“Hello Dan, it’s Joe here, I hope you’re keeping well
It’s the 21st of December, and now they’re ringing the last bells
If I get good behaviour, I’ll be out of here by July
Won’t you kiss my kids on Christmas Day, please don’t let ’em cry for me.

I guess the brothers are driving down from Queensland and Stella’s flying in from the coast
They say it’s gonna be a hundred degrees, even more maybe, but that won’t stop the roast
Who’s gonna make the gravy now? I bet it won’t taste the same

Just add flour, salt, a little red wine
And don’t forget a dollop of tomato sauce for sweetness and that extra tang
And give my love to Angus and to Frank and Dolly,
Tell ’em all I’m sorry I screwed up this time
And look after Rita, I’ll be thinking of her early Christmas morning

When I’m standing in line
I hear Mary’s got a new boyfriend, I hope he can hold his own
Do you remember the last one? What was his name again?
(Just a little too much cologne)

And Roger, you know I’m even gonna miss Roger
‘Cause there’s sure as hell no one in here I want to fight
Oh praise the Baby Jesus, have a Merry Christmas,
I’m really gonna miss it, all the treasure and the trash
And later in the evening, I can just imagine,
You’ll put on Junior Murvin and push the tables back
And you’ll dance with Rita, I know you really like her,
Just don’t hold her too close, oh brother please don’t stab me in the back

I didn’t mean to say that, it’s just my mind it plays up,
Multiplies each matter, turns imagination into fact
You know I love her badly, she’s the one to save me,
I’m gonna make some gravy, I’m gonna taste the fat
Tell her that I’m sorry, yeah I love her badly, tell ’em all I’m sorry,
And kiss the sleepy children for me
You know one of these days, I’ll be making gravy,
I’ll be making plenty, I’m gonna pay ’em all back”

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iYqIF2XkqKU

#51 Joseph R. on 12.23.20 at 6:00 pm

#35 ts on 12.23.20 at 4:11 pm
#9 Joseph R. on 12.23.20 at 2:44 pm

The real “danger” are people like you who
want to take away people’s religious freedoms

————————————————————-
False accusation.
I am against taking anyone’s religious freedoms. Christians can pray and have displays of their faith on their property. They can’t, however, use religion as an excuse to liberate themselves from their responsibility as citizens of a free country.

#52 Ustabe on 12.23.20 at 6:19 pm

@ #46 Coho

I’m fairly certain your post has given me cancer.

Never mind the toddler level knowledge of the how and why of the Covid vaccines, you expect me to start praying to a God that allows his people to suffer the ravages of this pandemic.

Let me point out that the Pope has stated that the vaccines are OK for the faithful to take despite fetal tissue being a component. How convenient.

The Covid vaccines are not a miracle from God. They are the product of decades of scientifically rigourous research, sped up by money thrown at it and and time constraints being lifted. Some of those scientists believe in a god, I’m sure, while some probably do not.

#53 cuke and tomato picker on 12.23.20 at 6:30 pm

We are very thankful to to live in Canada because hockey is our game. I go back to 1955 when the Penticton Vees
beat the Russians 5 nothing. Our juniors are playing them now. We have the juniors now and the NHL Jan.13th . Sit
back relax and stay safe and enjoy.

#54 KLNR on 12.23.20 at 6:33 pm

@#9 Joseph R. on 12.23.20 at 2:44 pm
#4 KNOW IT ALL on 12.23.20 at 2:23 pm
Or this could happen….

Hollywood vets organizing maskless protests.

How screwed we are.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/23/entertainment/kirk-cameron-protests/index.html

————————————————————

Kirk Cameron is the antithesis of a Hollywood star.
Kirk Cameron is a darling of the Conservative movement. Frequently invited to Fox News and other conservative outlets to spew his rants about the “War on Christmas”:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/christian-vote-election-trump-biden-kirk-cameron-religious-liberty

But I agree with you, Conservative Christians activists are dangerous to our efforts to contain the pandemic and therefore our society.

kirk cameron makes baby jesus cry.
shame on him and people like him.

#55 the Jaguar on 12.23.20 at 6:42 pm

It’s armageddon on Calgary residential streets this afternoon. So much snow. All kinds of vehicles getting stuck. I helped push two out with my herculean Jaguar muscular arms. People rushing around frantically for all the last minute staples to get through the next 48 hours. . Piece of advice for anyone thinking of starting their own business: go for the ‘vices’. Like haircuts they’re in demand in good times and bad. My neighbourhood wine, beer and spirits store is a gold mine. They can’t keep the shelves stocked! Those Albertans. They work hard, but they like to play hard, too. Mercy.

Speaking armageddon and weather…..this is a good clip:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-TfZslHKoo

#56 TheTruthHurts on 12.23.20 at 6:42 pm

DELETED

#57 zoey on 12.23.20 at 6:46 pm

If that CERB $$ mostly went to people that needed it as in a retail worker or retaurant server , they still need to get their job back or they’re not spending anything. How many retail / restaurant jobs are toast and not coming back ? There will be no massive spend by these people until they are back on their feet. I also don’t believe economists, polititians, real-estate agents( goes without saying ) or the BOC.

For everyone else that collected CERB and didn’t need it, well Justin has your number and you will be paying it back.

#58 Nonplused on 12.23.20 at 7:02 pm

I predict 2021 is going to be an average year. Worse than 2020 but better than 2022.

On the positive side will be the vaccine but it will probably be summer before it is fully rolled out, so we will start 2021 in lockdown. Businesses that survived until now will start failing. Landlords who haven’t been getting paid will go bankrupt. Homeowners who haven’t been making payments will get a notice. Folks who used WFH as an excuse to not work from home will receive a layoff notice.

But 2022 is when the real fireworks will hit the fan as we will have to reckon with all this financial insanity eventually. Inflation will rise as people discover there are fewer places to spend all that money they have been saving. Interest rates will rise in response and also in response to the continued fiscal largess of the governments. (Sooner or later the bond market is going to tell the Fed to go pound sand.) Stocks, gold, and commodities all higher as people look for something other than bonds to invest in. The dollar will deflate in purchasing power. Evictions and foreclosures will resume. Cries for the government to “do something” will grow but I don’t know what’s left for them to do. Talk of “The Great Reset” will grow. Many countries will default on their debt either outright in the case of US denominated debt or through currency debasement.

But come 2023 most of that should be cleared up. Unless something nasty occurs like president Harris starting a war with Iran.

#59 Kurt on 12.23.20 at 7:04 pm

#3 truefacts

You need to look at the prevalence of immunity, not elapsed time.

In 1918, the virus was allowed to spread unimpeded. Immunity developed quickly, though the virus evolved quickly enough to produce 3 distinct “waves” in the single year. Lots of people died, very fast, (18 million, or about 1% of the world) but a population that had moderate, mid-term immunity was left behind, resulting in natural herd immunity and collapse of the pandemic. The virus is still with us (look up “swine flu”), but thanks to combined human/virus evolution, it is an existential threat only to a small portion of the population who we try to protect with vaccination.

We have managed to avoid COVID infection for a large portion of the population; they have no immunity, so the moment we relax contact restrictions, the pandemic resumes. Globally, there have been 78 million documented cases; undocumented will be somewhere between the same again and ten times that (I’m participating in a serological study to determine actual prevalence so we can narrow that range down a bit.) That means that something between 1 and 10% of the population has natural immunity (which may not be as robust as vaccine-mediated immunity). The pandemic will not be over until total immunity (natural plus vaccine mediated) reaches 50-70%.

#60 CJohnC on 12.23.20 at 7:18 pm

#9 Joseph R. on 12.23.20 at 2:44
#35 ts on 12.23.20 at 4:11 pm

I always find it interesting that the most unchristian people espousing the most unchristian ideas are Conservative Christians such as this guy.

If Jesus was a Christian he would be ashamed.

#61 Old man too on 12.23.20 at 7:18 pm

#16 Dustin:
Glenlivet XXV
Will set you back about four and a quarter.
So good you won’t want to share.

#62 Nonplused on 12.23.20 at 7:21 pm

#29 George S on 12.23.20 at 3:56 pm
It would be interesting to hear from people that are actually working from home at full time jobs that require them to be paying attention to what they are doing all day long. My children and their spouses all work from home at jobs like that. They treat their workday just like when they go in to the office and have their workstations set up at home in separate home offices. Right now they only go in to work every now and then for a face to face meeting.

I suspect that if you are really serious about working at home you would need to get a nanny or a full time babysitter to take care of things around the house and the children because all you are saving is the commute (and possibly getting dressed). You still have to be “at work” for your 8 or whatever hours a day.

————————————

Many companies require child care for children under a certain age or they won’t allow it. It worked ok for us because there is a before and after care right next door that we were originally using for WFW so when my wife went WFH and I jetted off to the US we just kept using it until our kid hit the magic age.

But yes WFHers should be aware that they may still require childcare.

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.23.20 at 7:21 pm

Just when I thought my Christmas diet and drinking was getting a bit unhealthy…….

https://www.indiatoday.in/trending-news/story/mcdonald-s-sells-spam-burger-stuffed-with-mayo-and-oreo-cookie-crumbs-in-china-1751929-2020-12-22

I feel better now.

#64 yorkville renter on 12.23.20 at 7:25 pm

anyone have insight into how the Roaring 20s came to be? Was it a similar story to today? Or did something else spark all that growth?

#65 Damifino on 12.23.20 at 7:32 pm

John Horgan’s $500 was received in my bank account today. Half went straight to the BC Food Bank and the other half to the Union Gospel Mission (a bastion of good work in Vancouver’s downtown east side).

If you think it’s money you don’t need then you could do something similar. That’s what John would expect.

#66 cuke and tomato picker on 12.23.20 at 7:34 pm

Number 55 I was driving around Sidney B.C. and I noticed
some Alberta plates I guess they are enjoying our Hawaii of Canada.

#67 Doug t on 12.23.20 at 7:34 pm

#53 cuke

I hate hockey

#68 cramar on 12.23.20 at 7:36 pm

As evidence that the pandemic has increaed the wealth divide in the U.S., the demand for luxury homes has far outpaced that for regular housing. On TV news they attribute this to the rising stock market making the wealthy richer.

https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/u-s-luxury-sales-continue-to-surge-as-year-closes-out-222280

#69 Doug t on 12.23.20 at 7:37 pm

Apparently word has it that the “real” pent up demand is for SEX – tinder is gonna EXPLODE

#70 Coho on 12.23.20 at 7:40 pm

Ustable, I was being facetious about the vaccine being a miracle from God. Jesus, the Divine and spirituality have little to do with organized religions and their leaders. This indeed is a contrarian statement.

#71 Nonplused on 12.23.20 at 7:42 pm

“Nobody has the ‘religious freedom’ to infect another person. Grow up. – Garth”

While I agree with that statement, that is not how religious thinking works. The number of atrocities committed in the name of religion through the millennia makes one sad to be a human.

And where are the Muslims and the Jews on all of this? They are the ones who follow all of the health based dietary commandments in the bible so I assume that if they are ok with the jab Christians should be too. (Health based in that in 700 BC Kosher was a good idea because pork and shellfish were killing people. Even today we have similar “laws”. “Thou shalt cook pork thoroughly. Thou shalt not serve it rare.” and “Thou shalt not eat a mussel that has not opened in the pot.”)

#72 Cassandra on 12.23.20 at 7:51 pm

Pfff shut up Cassandra. The Greeks aren’t going to invade Troy. They don’t even have a functioning biological warfare program.

#73 alf on 12.23.20 at 8:13 pm

#46 Coho on 12.23.20 at 5:27 pm

Beautiful post.

#74 Nonplused on 12.23.20 at 8:19 pm

#38 Kothar on 12.23.20 at 4:30 pm
What about the carbon tax scam? Just got my Enbridge gas statement. Used $22 in gas for month but charged $72 in user fees delivery fees and not one but two various taxes listed. And on top of all that they charge HST on all of it?! So you are paying hst on the carbon tax?! Why do you have to pay a tax on a tax never to see it again? Also why do you have to pay a tax on top of advisor fees??

——————————

I’m seeing the same thing here in Alberta. “User fees” as you called them (really the charge for transportation through the pipeline network) were separated from fuel charges years ago because the fuel charges were meant to be a “flow through” cost with only a fixed fee associated for running the gas supply department and related financing costs. So we could see the fuel charges separate from the pipeline costs years ago. But now we have this “carbon tax”, and in Alberta it is currently more than the fuel charge. And then yes there is GST on top of that. And the utility also pays all kinds of property and income taxes. And so do all of its’ employees.

It’s a tax on a tax on a tax. And now with carbon taxes, it’s a tax on a tax on a tax on a tax. Tax^4 if you will.

But they will get no more money. Every tax dollar that they suck up in one place means less spending and less taxes in another. There are only so many dollars.

———————————–

Ack! I feel another rant coming on.

So first, the premise is that money isn’t real, it is math. We agree to use it as an accounting system to exchange real goods and services. A dollar is no more real than the number 1 printed on a piece of paper. What is a “1”? Well it is nothing but an idea unless there is “1” thing you are talking about. None of these words are real things either but that is a different conversation.

So then all real wealth is derived from labor and raw materials. Real capital is nothing more than accumulated labor. (For example if you build a storefront that is an investment of labor, but now that you are renting it out it is a return on capital.)

So this is the crux of the tax problem. They aren’t taking your money so much as they are taking your labor. That is less labor left for you to exchange for other things. You can only work so many hours in a day. Some of those hours of labor must be put towards food, shelter, transportation, and work clothes.

So the long and the short of it is that there is no way for governments to raise taxes beyond a certain point without impoverishing labor. Labor is everything over the long run and it is finite. Sure, it works ok if the taxes you pay are building hospitals and roads, because otherwise you would have to build them yourselves, but UBI? That means I am working my arse off to give someone else food and shelter who is not working. Incentive theory would indicate in that environment that more and more people will chose not to work and thus the real driver of economic activity, labor, will go down, and the economy with it.

And then you get a real slippery slope. As more people chose not to work, more UBI will be required, which means higher taxes, which means less incentive to work.

Socialism always fails because of the incentive problem. It is based on the idea that we should all share the chicken dinner. But sooner or later nobody is raising chickens.

If the government plans to pay people who are unemployed, fine, but at least have them build bike paths or campgrounds or something. You can’t pay them to play Fortnight.

#75 Faron on 12.23.20 at 8:20 pm

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.23.20 at 7:21 pm

Just when I thought my Christmas diet and drinking was getting a bit unhealthy…….

https://www.indiatoday.in/trending-news/story/mcdonald-s-sells-spam-burger-stuffed-with-mayo-and-oreo-cookie-crumbs-in-china-1751929-2020-12-22

I feel better now

Should up your elevator game.

#76 Health Care Worker on 12.23.20 at 8:30 pm

Received the first dose of COVID vaccine last week. (I work on COVID outbreak units).

My PPE, hand hygiene, cleaning equipment after patient/resident/client and changing my scrubs/clothing has worked so far but am looking forward to an eventual return to normalcy.

Side effects experienced:

tiredness on day 1, sore arm for two days, and periodic chills for about three days.

I am thankful for the vaccine.

Stay safe everyone.

#77 Steerage science on 12.23.20 at 8:30 pm

#46 Coho on 12.23.20 at 5:27 pm
Will the vaccines deliver us from Covid, or is it more accurate that Covid has delivered the vaccines?

Since the start, there has been clamouring for vaccines while at the same time treatments suppressed and ridiculed as quackery. Why? Seems like vaccines have been shoe horned into the equation. And already there is back peddling as to their effectiveness. Prediction: Lockdowns of varying degrees will be permanent despite vaccines.

Touted by many as a miracle from God,

…..

It’s called science….. nobel prize worthy quite likley for the mRNA ones….evolved monkey brains winning the evolutionary game

#78 Paul B on 12.23.20 at 8:38 pm

DELETED

#79 Do we have all the facts on 12.23.20 at 8:47 pm

I always thought GDP measured products and productivity.

Silly me!!

Under the new paradigm borrowing a billion dollars makes you a billionaire.

The world I once knew has changed to the point that I have lost interest in trying to understand it.

Thank god I am more than halfway down the exit ramp.

Who knows where this insanity might end!

#80 Stephen Harper on 12.23.20 at 8:55 pm

You’re Fired!

No , wait another day chalked full of pardons.

Get in line Garth, maybe at least be put back on the XMas card list…

#81 Howard on 12.23.20 at 9:02 pm

#64 yorkville renter on 12.23.20 at 7:25 pm
anyone have insight into how the Roaring 20s came to be? Was it a similar story to today? Or did something else spark all that growth?

———————————-

Began with a massive deflationary bust in 1920. Was actually called a depression at the time, but has since been forgotten and overshadowed by *the* Depression of the 1930s.

Following the bust, personal credit became widespread among households for the first time, and women began speculating in stocks (on margin) and real estate alongside the men. In many ways it wasn’t much different from the easy money bubble we find ourselves in today. It all worked fine until the music stopped. Real estate peaked in 1926 and equities, as we all know, in 1929.

#82 Howard on 12.23.20 at 9:11 pm

#57 zoey on 12.23.20 at 6:46 pm

For everyone else that collected CERB and didn’t need it, well Justin has your number and you will be paying it back.

———————————-

Ha ha ha.

On no they won’t. Justin has already made it clear that the CRA shouldn’t be too hard on the little CERB thieves, which basically amounts to no consequences. He will be calling an election next year and the folks sitting at home collecting CERB are his base (particularly those who are collecting it in bad faith).

I believe you may be confused about which country you are in. Canada is not a place where financial trickery is ever punished.

#83 Tommy on 12.23.20 at 9:11 pm

@29 George S.

Many WFHers live in suburban big box homes with multigenerational households. They already have live-in childcare from grandparents. They work in a room of the house that is now a dedicated office. It makes no difference whether they work from home or go into the office, the childcare arrangements they always had in place before COVID-19 are still working as normal.

People now spend less time stuck in bridge traffic and more time with their families so I think it’s great. It’s needed (transportation infrastructure will never keep up with demand if we go back to the old way). WFH is here to stay IMO.

#84 Paul B on 12.23.20 at 9:33 pm

#78 DELETED

Garth, A little surprised it got deleted, but your blog, your rules. I will respect that.

We are done here with anti-vaccine bleating. – Garth

#85 morrey on 12.23.20 at 9:37 pm

I am stumped:
“Bloomberg now estimates there is $103 billion sitting in Canadians’ personal checking accounts”

“Household debt ratio rises to 176.9%, Statistics Canada says

Ratio is inching back toward the all time high it hit in late 2017”

so which is it? Are we Cash Rich or in Debt?

Merry Christmas and a Happier New Year

#86 Frank N Beans on 12.23.20 at 9:54 pm

#29 George S.,

Yes, I am a WFH’er. absolutely need daycare 8:30am to 5:30pm. Most days are jammed with meetings from 9am to 4:30 pm with intermittent time to catch up on briefings and make edits to intel sent up the chain. In the early COV months of having to balance caring for a toddler and holding down a serious WFH job, I nearly had a nervous breakdown. When my daycare opened up again in June I was beside myself in joy. It would be impossible to effectively function in my WFH job without childcare, I am as productive, if not more, at my job working from home. My house is no cleaner than it was when I commuted. My days and my mind is fully expended on focusing. I know that not all employees are being utilized to this degree (first hand, I can attest, as a manager I see some of my team rise to the occasion), while other members of my team are the same useless tits they were before WFH commenced. If I could fire them, I would, but I’m in a unionized environment.
I have, like this blog proclaims, saved a ton working from home, but I still spend a whack ton on daycare and sometimes I contemplate getting a cleaning person to help make my house feel better, being that I am in it 22 hours of the day many days. My money is spent on brick and mortar and renovations of said brick and mortar, so again this blog has my number.
If we were to get to a situation of having daycares closed again for any real duration of time, I will lose my mind.

#87 DON on 12.23.20 at 10:00 pm

#82 Howard on 12.23.20 at 9:11 pm
#57 zoey on 12.23.20 at 6:46 pm

For everyone else that collected CERB and didn’t need it, well Justin has your number and you will be paying it back.

———————————-

Ha ha ha.

On no they won’t. Justin has already made it clear that the CRA shouldn’t be too hard on the little CERB thieves, which basically amounts to no consequences. He will be calling an election next year and the folks sitting at home collecting CERB are his base (particularly those who are collecting it in bad faith).

I believe you may be confused about which country you are in. Canada is not a place where financial trickery is ever punished.

************************

Trudeau said they would work with you to find a suitable payment plan…not to worry they is no need to pay anything by December 31.

Besides he can always put off the collectors in the name of covid’ hold an election, gain a majority and then resume collections.

#88 Jo on 12.23.20 at 10:03 pm

Health care worker #76
Thank you for sharing your vaccine experience, I appreciate your post, I have been very curious about side effects. Yes, let’s hope for some form of normalcy to life again soon, Good luck to you, and thank you for being brave enough to stand on the front lines.

#89 Kat on 12.23.20 at 10:04 pm

Being a Christian means following certain moral standards, one of the most important is love your neighbor as yourself. Pretty sure that encompasses not getting others sick with a disease that may kill them by meeting together at church. Plenty of religions doing zoom gatherings with great success.

#90 WiseGuy on 12.23.20 at 10:20 pm

Let’s discuss the 28 day lockdown about to unfold in Ontario. If anyone believes that it will only last 28 days, they are extremely naive.

We are at record cases in Ontario and we already know that there are enough Covid deniers that will continue to gather during Christmas and New Years, so let’s do the simple Covid math.

a) X-Mas – families continue to gather
b) 5 days later – average for first sign of symptoms
c)2 days later – the minimum amount of time to get an answer to a Covid test.
d) Other family members are now being infected by Covid
e) 5 days later – family members start experiencing symptoms
f) 2 days later – time to receive answer to Covid test
g) patients are asked to isolate for 14 days.

That above is the best case scenario, but now 28 days have passed and cases have continued to rise with Christmas and New Years gatherings, so the Ontario Government will extend the lockdown another 14 days and then again after that another 14 days.

This takes us to the end of February, where slowly our over 65+ patients start to get immunized, but this will take at least 2 months. The general population in Canada isn’t expected to be offered a vaccine until June or July.

But as mentioned above, this lockdown easily lasts 2 months and you know what, I’m OK with it!

#91 Mike on 12.23.20 at 10:53 pm

DELETED

#92 Logistics 411 on 12.23.20 at 10:54 pm

…the Port of Los Angeles reported that imports of “loaded” containers for the four months of August, September, October, and November soared by 22% from the prior year, to 1.96 million TEU. This surge was the opposite of what happened during the Financial Crisis

This is simply the result of significantly reduced air traffic, and therefore air cargo capacity as fewer commercial planes fly and make their cargo capacity available for shipments. Much more has to go by container/sea, including good portion of parcel mail that used to fly on planes for example.

What you should look at is combined air and ground/sea cargo totals. I wonder if air cargo capacity reductions would offset this 22%?

#93 truefacts on 12.23.20 at 11:32 pm

#71 Nonplused…
“The number of atrocities committed in the name of religion through the millennia makes one sad to be a human.”

The data shows more people have been killed through atheistic ideologies than through religious conflicts. If you read the Encyclopedia of Wars, the authors document 1,763 wars that are recorded from 8,000 BC to 2,000 AD. It turns out about 3.8% were based on Islam, 3.2% based on all other religions combined, and a whopping 93% recorded as “government wars” (non-religious in nature).

https://apholt.com/2018/12/26/counting-religious-wars-in-the-encyclopedia-of-wars/

So a more accurate assessment/statement would be…

“The number of atrocities committed in the name of GOVERNMENT/nations through the millennia makes one sad to be a human.”

#94 Pete from St. Cesaire on 12.23.20 at 11:34 pm

There it is: ‘permanent reopening.’
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I’d only believe that if in retrospect.
Remember “2 weeks to flatten the curve”?

#95 Garth's Son Drake on 12.24.20 at 12:03 am

Garth, light at the end of the tunnel isn’t good news for the markets.

Having the Fed spend big and stimulate is what markets like.

2021 = The Hangover. I think I have to send you are reminder.

Watch what happens after March 31, 2021 is stimulus ends or plateaus.

#96 NSNG on 12.24.20 at 12:32 am

I can’t believe it. Putting money into my RRSP lowered my net income and actually allowed me to qualify for the full Horganbucks benefit. I actually get some of my one money back!

I think this is the first time in my life saving instead of spending (apart from being its own inherent benefit) has paid off! Maybe the world is changing.

It just goes to show a broken squirrel really can find a blind clock with nuts in it twice a day.

#97 Sail Away on 12.24.20 at 12:35 am

Vaccine? Sure, if it’s easy and doesn’t require much time or effort. Although I’m absolutely ambivalent either way, if taking the vax gets people to… just… shut… up… then ok. When someone introduces Covid to a conversation, it means all productive discussion is done.

Regarding investments: Moderna and Pfizer will probably have better than average returns for the next year or so, and Tesla is poised for total world domination as previously and exhaustively predicted. Nano One in Richmond is on a tear with their cathode tech.

#98 Lead Paint on 12.24.20 at 12:44 am

#74 Nonplused on 12.23.20 at 8:19 pm

Good rant! Too many people forget the basics, or never understood them in the first place. We as a country need leaders who will find ways to increase the value/volume of goods and services we generate, and how to share them more fairly. Otherwise we’re just playing number games that will lead to a poorer standard of living for all.

The other problem with UBI is that once enough people go on it they will vote for politicians that promise them ever higher payments. Already we have 25% of the workforce in government who presumably vote for parties that will protect and increase their pay, power and pension. Another 25% voting for more UBI will capsize this small ship called the Canadian Economy.

#99 Keeper of Traken on 12.24.20 at 2:06 am

But I thought giving tax cuts for the rich was supposed to trickle down to the peasants?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-16/fifty-years-of-tax-cuts-for-rich-didn-t-trickle-down-study-says

#100 Nonplused on 12.24.20 at 2:24 am

#55 the Jaguar on 12.23.20 at 6:42 pm
It’s armageddon on Calgary residential streets this afternoon. So much snow. All kinds of vehicles getting stuck.

—————————–

My cul-de-sac is plowed as of sometime this morning. They have even moved the big piles of snow they leave in front of the driveways on the first pass to get the busses through. Lots of snow but a snow storm is at best a couple days disruption. It was nothing compared to the flood of 2013. With covid, it hardly made any difference to me because I wasn’t going anywhere anyways. Did have to get the snow thrower out though and can honestly say that is the most snow I have ever thrown.

(Note how I did not say “blown” since I am sure that would have set Farts and Faron into fits of hysterical laughter.)

#101 Nonplused on 12.24.20 at 3:02 am

#69 Doug t on 12.23.20 at 7:37 pm
Apparently word has it that the “real” pent up demand is for SEX – tinder is gonna EXPLODE

—————————–

I think at this point most people who know what sex they are are totally tired of the other sexes, all 5+ of them, and would rather buy a motorcycle.

#102 Diamond Dog on 12.24.20 at 3:14 am

#48 Reality cheque on 12.23.20 at 5:39 pm

“Garth, love your optimism ..but.. will vaccines work on the new mutant strains…AND.. you really think all will be ok with our Health Care and Hospitals?.. did you forget Hallway Medicine in our hospitals… BEFORE Covid?” – Rc

These aren’t “new mutant strains”, but a variation of the same old strain. If or when the day comes where we have an actual second strain defined by having it’s own separate Serotype, that would be cause for worry but a variant of the same old strain is not. Even if it proves to be more contagious, such as the variant coming out of the UK. Why? The old strain is quite contagious all on its own.

I’ll use North Dakota as an example, since ND has the highest percentage of confirmed Covid19 cases in the USA and at the same time, is in the bottom 10 states in testing. (South Dakota works too):

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/north-dakota/

North Dakota is a state that currently has 11.9% confirmed cases in the gen pop, arguably with inferior testing and had no government restrictions whatsoever into early December. Epidemiologists believe the Dakotas are anywhere from 30 to 60% infected depending on which models you believe or have a bias for. (I think it’s in the mid 30%’s presently and base it on their daily confirmed cases chart coupled with their lower levels of testing).

North Dakota dailies peaked somewhere around the 21st of November (before they issued a mandatory mask mandate in early December) which would be consistent with flu case numbers hitting resistance around 30%. Airborne viral epidemics peak around 30% herd immunity and by 36% herd immunity range is where we really start to see a significant drop in spread. One would think that Covid19 numbers would see similar. Of course, I’m just looking at it from the lens of a non existent government response while comparing charts with other viral epidemics but people can still make choices of their own and alter the numbers, especially when a government is derelict of duty:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/nutrition/pharmacists-see-increase-in-sales-of-vitamins-c-d-and-zinc-amid-pandemic/ar-BB1bk7He

Anyway, if these numbers are in the ball park, what it means is that the old strain left unchecked spread itself quite nicely before a mutation variant become selectively dominant. It means, more to the point, that a peak in North Dakota would have happened sooner with this new variant and would have put more pressure on health care systems, but probably not by all that much.

#103 under the radar on 12.24.20 at 5:08 am

#61 – I think the 21 is better and is my go to.
The Glenmorangie Signet is to me, the greatest current production scotch of the modern era and at 340.00 a bargain if you can find it.

#104 westcdn on 12.24.20 at 6:10 am

“What does not kill me makes me stronger” – Nietzsche

Simplistic but speaks to spirit. Yeah, I know things aren’t fair and there are lousy people. I say I am a contrarian because I believe in balance. I will defend the minority for the right of them being heard.

I am just a human male with honor. I have no respect for cheaters. There are better things than padding your butts (there is that name again). I realize it is important to feel valued but let’s get on with it and slay the virus dragon which send some many into fear (I have my issues with germophobics)

Tomorrow, there will be a new hill to fight on per media.
Just my attitude but prove to me you are worth defending. Most do not realize how thin the shield of responsible government is.

After small potatoes and his budgets will balance themselves should realize there will be a reckoning that budget deficits matter. Unfortunately lil potatoes is with the tide of big government and his regime deficit spending.

I really just think lil potatoes wants to exist in the UN and will put Alberta on the alter to achieve that end neverminded monetizing budget deficits til the cows come home. Guess what I think?

A lower standard of living for the plebs is coming unless you are public “servant” – could not resist. At least you will have real estate that has wealth tax written all over it – can you say utility/user taxes/fees.

I thought gold was in for a sharp downturn but it looks like a new $1875 to $1900 has taken. I am game to go if the flush happens. Equities(common) look good for 2021 but I still buy preferreds. A few have been redeemed to my surprise. I think when it comes to Cdn banks, buy the common but I find them expensive . I am a small fish so take me with salt and hot sauce.

I had to laugh when Flop said, “Don’t show Doug Ford an empty fridge”.

#105 maxx on 12.24.20 at 6:49 am

#6 Dolce Vita on 12.23.20 at 2:36 pm

Vax Populi.

Excellent!

#106 Kevin on 12.24.20 at 7:03 am

Isn’t antivaxing just a voluntary culling of the stupid gene

#107 sierts on 12.24.20 at 7:23 am

found this:

https://youtu.be/t2h1Zh1v_MY

and thought it fitting for this blog.

Merry Christmas, folks!

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.24.20 at 7:51 am

@#66 Cuke picker
“I was driving around Sidney B.C. and I noticed
some Alberta plates ….”

+++ They are everywhere in the Lower Brainland.
Mostly work trucks.
I suspect the Tradesmen willing to move from Alberta’s prolonged recession were smart enough to keep their Alberta address current (even if they are living and working here) so they dont have to pay BC’s exorbitant govt car insurance.
$600/year private insurance vs $2000/year govt insurance is a good incentive to lie about your residence status….

#109 Love_The_Cottage on 12.24.20 at 8:01 am

#29 George S on 12.23.20 at 3:56 pm
I suspect that if you are really serious about working at home you would need to get a nanny or a full time babysitter to take care of things around the house and the children…
_______
Depending on the age of your children. I have coworkers with older children and they block off their calendars from say 3:15-4 to pick up the kids from school / make sure they got home ok but they are then available from 4-5:30 and usually catch up on email in the evening.
___________
#86 Frank N Beans on 12.23.20 at 9:54 pm
…as a manager I see some of my team rise to the occasion, while other members of my team are the same useless tits they were before WFH commenced…

Exactly. Location has nothing to do with it. I managed a team with employees across the country. It was my job to tell who was contributing regardless of which office they were in. WFH makes no difference to that.

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.24.20 at 8:10 am

@#86 Frank’s Beans
“Most days are jammed with meetings from 9am to 4:30 pm with intermittent time to catch up on briefings and make edits …………
………..I can attest, as a manager I see some of my team rise to the occasion), while other members of my team are the same useless tits they were before WFH commenced. If I could fire them, I would, but I’m in a unionized environment……..

+++++++++++
Managing Govt Workers?
My sympathies. Its like herding insolent cats.

I too work as a manager in a union environment for the private sector. Yin meets yang.
Less time in meetings and more time one on one with staff…works wonders.
Especially if you give them brutally Frank job reviews.
I do have the power to lay them off if they refuse to change ( ie show up on time, get jobs done in a timely fashion, etc.)
I also determine bonus payouts based on the company’s annual profit, the employee’s work ethic, seniority, etc.
The hard workers are compensated very very well, the slackers….get nothing.
Its amazing how a month or two( or three or four) of extra salary incentivized the sloths, the slackers, the whiners.

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.24.20 at 8:17 am

@#103 Radar
“The Glenmorangie Signet is to me, the greatest current production scotch of the modern era and at 340.00 a bargain if you can find it.”
++++

The aged Scotches are definitely a smoother, refined taste sensation.
I have a few very nice bottles in the $250 -$450 range

Best bang for the buck?

The Macallan
15 years old.
$90 bucks a quart.
Smooth, tasty, reasonably priced.

#112 Ross on 12.24.20 at 8:47 am

In case of permanent reopening starting end of second half of 2021.
If vax works and people take it, pent up demand is unleashed.
There isnt enough vax supply till the fall of 2021 in Canada regardless.
We are locked up till 2022 according to those calculations.
I know math is hard but what am I missing.
I know, season 2 of THE PANDEMIC.
In the mean time, keep getting PCR tested to keep the cases numbers up or maybe just jack up the cycles from 30 to 40 you know till we get our minds right.
The branch Covidians , they love it.
Myself, I am just not that into it.
PEACE

#113 Player24 on 12.24.20 at 9:07 am

Thanks for being positive..easier to write negative news so appreciate the post. I agree with you and wish you Merry Christmas

#114 LP on 12.24.20 at 9:38 am

#60 CJohnC on 12.23.20 at 7:18 pm
#9 Joseph R. on 12.23.20 at 2:44
#35 ts on 12.23.20 at 4:11 pm

If Jesus was a Christian he would be ashamed.
********************

He was a Jew.

#115 Dharma Bum on 12.24.20 at 9:45 am

#35 ts

The real “danger” are people like you who
want to take away people’s religious freedoms.
——————————————————————–
Religious Freedom.

Now THAT’s an oxymaroooooon!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxGgnI6kCrs

#116 millmech on 12.24.20 at 10:15 am

#108 CEF
One of the pipefitters we have working with us for the last year has Alberta insurance, slid into and rear ended multiple vehicles Monday night on his way home from work, that little bit of cost savings will probably wipe him out financially.

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.24.20 at 10:30 am

@#116 millmech
“One of the pipefitters we have working with us for the last year has Alberta insurance, slid into and rear ended multiple vehicles Monday night on his way home from work, that little bit of cost savings will probably wipe him out financially.”

++++

I didnt say it was right.
I just understand why they do it.

When I moved here from out of Province 40 years ago.
My car was ticked with a warning after being parked outside my house for only two weeks for “Out of Province “plates.

I had another week to get BC plates or it would be ticketed and towed.

The unbelievable amount of Alberta work trucks driving around the Lower Brainland is a visible indication of the scofflaws trying any way to avoid the overpriced, punitive, exorbitant monopolistic govt car insurance BC residents are forced to pay.

Car insurance that could easily be offered by the private sector rather than the bloated, inefficient, bureaucratic octopus we have today.

#118 Howard on 12.24.20 at 10:53 am

#99 Keeper of Traken on 12.24.20 at 2:06 am
But I thought giving tax cuts for the rich was supposed to trickle down to the peasants?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-16/fifty-years-of-tax-cuts-for-rich-didn-t-trickle-down-study-says

————————————-

https://imgur.com/gallery/olQxJ

#119 Howard on 12.24.20 at 11:11 am

#92 Logistics 411 on 12.23.20 at 10:54 pm
…the Port of Los Angeles reported that imports of “loaded” containers for the four months of August, September, October, and November soared by 22% from the prior year, to 1.96 million TEU. This surge was the opposite of what happened during the Financial Crisis

This is simply the result of significantly reduced air traffic, and therefore air cargo capacity as fewer commercial planes fly and make their cargo capacity available for shipments. Much more has to go by container/sea, including good portion of parcel mail that used to fly on planes for example.

What you should look at is combined air and ground/sea cargo totals. I wonder if air cargo capacity reductions would offset this 22%?

———————————-

Good point. This Accenture link corroborates your suspicions. Passenger plane belly cargo tanked but partially offset by increased import via freighter aircraft:

https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insights/travel/coronavirus-air-cargo-capacity

However it appears that maritime transport accounts for the vast majority of imports. The 22% increase in imports via ship vastly offsets the decline via passenger planes:

https://unctad.org/webflyer/review-maritime-transport-2018

Around 80 per cent of global trade by volume and over 70 per cent of global trade by value are carried by sea and are handled by ports worldwide.

#120 Rick Janko on 12.24.20 at 11:13 am

103 billion that is all. That money in today’s inflated, devalued money is not that much. It will not do much if very little to help the Canadian economy.

#121 willworkforpickles on 12.24.20 at 11:15 am

Runaway government debt creation combined with creeping socialism in the past year will not lead to a healthy economy. High unemployment levels will stay that way for a long time and production levels will continue to drop.
It is certain that a surge in consumer buying will come by the summer if the virus begins to wane. The money saved by many from generous support payments will find its way into the system then. The overwhelming demand on existing supply will send prices skyrocketing.
Over the summer to early fall, the free flowing cash and spending will slow down…way down as it eventually runs low, but the inflationary high prices will remain and hard assets will start to depreciate in the economic scenario to come.
Higher interest rates to slow inflation can be expected compounding the pain and worry for the better part of the population (80%) with the least money in their pockets.
The stagflation to come of this will stay around for a long time…and longer than many in this indebted society can hold out for.
The measures used to put stagflation out of its misery 40 years ago created an altogether new misery. Measures that this particular time around would and if implemented again, will massively devastate the much indebted.
But it did end the stagflation of the time back then.

#122 Frank Dalhousel on 12.24.20 at 11:21 am

I would not take what Bloomberg news and their sources seriously as the opposite of tax cuts and cutting government waste, government bureaucracy by socializing everything that Bloomberg is in favor of is a much worse, disastrous outcome, result.

If you think giving free money, free stuff, subsidizing, corporate and more welfare to anything, anyone, any businesses, government, government agencies and much higher taxes is going to save the economy, good luck, it is a colossal failure over and over throughout history.

#123 Jesse on 12.24.20 at 11:23 am

#20 Guelph Guru on 12.23.20 at 3:23 pm
The summer of 2021 would be the greatest party in the history of mankind.
Book your summer vacation now before inflation kicks in.
Time to buy CCL on dips.
******************

I have a feeling air travel is going to be a luxury for the wealthy jet-set crowd like in the 60s and 70s when this is over…

And T2’s punitive carbon taxes may make a trip to the mountains a pricey weekend for the average family… these lockdowns may end up morphing into the normal way of life if inflation sky-rockets thanks to rampant money printing.

#124 WTF on 12.24.20 at 11:33 am

12 Year Old Glen Garrioch $75

Merry Covid Christmas GT! Thank you for continuing to educate, advise, chastise and amuse.

Gonna be tropical weather in tony Lunenburg tomorrow.

#125 Flop... on 12.24.20 at 11:37 am

#104 westcdn on 12.24.20 at 6:10 am

I had to laugh when Flop said, “Don’t show Doug Ford an empty fridge.”

////////////////////////////////////////////

That’s cool, I saw him on the news a couple of weeks ago being shown inside of a fridge and not being particularly impressed, as you would probably expect, not much to see, and decided to do a joke about it.

I’m in between, but probably closer to being called Tubby, rather than Twiggy…

M46BC

———————————————

#60 Flop… on 12.16.20 at 7:40 pm

You guys in Ontario must have noticed how Doug Ford looks ruefully when someone opens up a fridge door to show him where the vaccine is going to be stored and it is empty.

The guy gets traumatized.

Never show Doug Ford an empty refrigerator…

M46BC

#126 IHCTD9 on 12.24.20 at 11:42 am

#116 millmech on 12.24.20 at 10:15 am
#108 CEF
One of the pipefitters we have working with us for the last year has Alberta insurance, slid into and rear ended multiple vehicles Monday night on his way home from work, that little bit of cost savings will probably wipe him out financially.
—- – ——

He rear ended multiple vehicles on the way home? You mean like multiple unique and consecutive rear ending events on one trip?

#127 Albertaguy (digging out) in AB on 12.24.20 at 12:10 pm

• ★Merry★* 。 • ˚ ˚ ˛ 。 • ˚ ˚ ˛
˚ • •。★Christmas★ ° °。。* 。 °。。* 。°。
。* 。 °。。* 。 °。。* 。°。°。。* 。 °。。* 。°。
° ˛˚˛ * _Π_____*。*˚ ˚ ˛ °。。* 。 °。 。°。
•˛•˚ */______/~\。˚ ˚ ˛ ˚ ˛ •* 。 °。。*
˛ • ˚ | 田田 |門| ˚ °。˚ ˛ •* 。 °。。*。*
♪♫•*¨* And a Happy New Year !! ♪♫•*¨*。*

Somebody is snowed in with too much time on their hands… – Garth

#128 Camille on 12.24.20 at 2:22 pm

Merry Christmas to Garth and all. Our lives are based on hope, so lets hope for the best!

#129 DON on 12.24.20 at 3:10 pm

Merry Christmas Everyone!

Thank you for blog Garth and Dorothy.

Stay safe blog dogs and enjoy the little things over this holiday season.

#130 John on 12.25.20 at 9:26 pm

Bank accounts also grow when there is nowhere to spend it.

It’s not just govt money that’s accumulating.