Outlook season

DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
.

It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas.

Is it the stockings hung by the chimney with care, visions of sugar plums dancing in my head, cousin Eddie’s RV pulling up to the Griswold’s? No. It’s the market-outlook reports that are clogging my inbox.

Here’s a sample:

Click to enlarge

It won’t stop here, of course. The reports will continue to pour in for the next several weeks. It’s an investment-industry end-of-the-year tradition. And the outlooks are (as they always are) unwaveringly bullish.

But this annual tradition is a fair bit of bunk. First, the focus on outlook at this time of year is purely arbitrary. The outlook really shouldn’t matter more now than it does in, say, May or August. Secondly, these forecasts are so frequently wrong that they’re of limited value. Investment manager Barry Ritholtz sums up the usefulness of year-ahead market outlooks nicely:

These are counter-productive exercises for investors. First, they are little more than guesses. I mean that literally; there is no valid science to estimating stock prices, interest rates, inflation, bond yields, gold, bitcoin or whatever 12 months out.

Consider: How many strategists had “Global Pandemic, one million deaths, 34% market crash, but with huge gains in FAANMG stocks and a 12% annual S&P500 gain” in their 2020 Outlooks? None.

The future is both unknown and unknowable. Don’t blame Covid—wars, pandemics, natural disasters and other tail risk events are a feature, not a bug. The unprecedented occurs with alarming regularity. This is why the forecasters never stand a chance over the course of a year.

Heavy-hitter Morgan Stanley recently raised its S&P 500 target for next year to 3,900, roughly 6.5% upside from current levels. I haven’t read its report, but no doubt Morgan Stanley carefully weighed central bank policy, Biden’s economic policies, vaccine rollout, corporate profitability, and god knows what else, to come up with its tepid, middle-of-the-road 6.5% upside.

But let’s see if I could duplicate a similar, and probably equally accurate (or inaccurate), 2021 forecast with just a bit of quick back-of-the-envelope math. First, US equity markets usually trade higher. With remarkable consistency under many scenarios, markets trade higher more than 70% of the time (73.1% to be exact). And maybe I’ll tilt those probabilities even higher because it’s the first year of Biden’s presidential term (see largest column in chart below). So my first wager? The US market will move higher next year. So far, me and Morgan Stanley are on the same page.

Odds the market will rise in any given year

Source: MarketWatch; US market data going back to 1793

And finally, the determination of the gain’s magnitude. Looking long term, what’s the historical distribution of US equity-market returns? US equities over almost the past 200 years most frequently have returns that fall into a range of between 0 and 20% (the peak areas of the pyramid or bell curve below). So, historical likelihoods support my estimating within this range. And if I shade my next-year forecast a bit more conservatively towards the lower end of this range, I arrive at an identical 6.5% upside estimate. No hours of research, no carefully argued fundamental thesis and no expensive analyst team required.

Pyramid of US equity returns past 195 years

Source: Visual Capitalist

The problem, of course, is that annual returns with great frequency fall to the edges of the pyramid or bell curve. Almost 60% of the time they fall outside of the range that I mentioned above. More than a quarter of the time returns are flat-out negative and more than 13% of the time returns fall into a -10% to -50% range—a fairly significant probability of such a lousy outcome. But no Wall Street analyst ever frames their year-ahead outlook with a negative return prediction, and certainly not a forecast of a double-digit decline—at least no analyst who wants long-term job security.

But such declines happen. A lot. This is why you should always maintain a balanced and diversified portfolio: for the predictions that Wall Street analysts will never make—and for the disruptive market events and sharp declines that will nevertheless still occur despite the sunny forecasts.

I’ve quoted New York Times columnist Jeff Sommer before on this blog, and his past observations on forecasting are always relevant this time of year:

Since the start of 2000, The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has ended in negative territory in five calendar years (2000, 2001, 2002, 2008 and 2015) and has been virtually flat once (in 2011). But while a handful of individual forecasts have, from time to time, predicted mildly negative years for stocks, the Wall Street consensus in every single year since 2000 has predicted a rising market.

Consider the calamity of 2008. … The S.&P. 500 fell 38.5% in the course of those 12 months…the forecast for 2008 was unusually bullish, calling for a rise of 11.1 percent. Wall Street missed the mark by 49 percentage points that year.

So, perhaps the only truly useful prediction is George Carlin’s weather forecast: “Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning.”

But knowing the pointlessness of all of these end-of-year investment-industry forecasts, am I still going to carefully construct a detailed 2021 market-outlook report for my clients?

You’re damn right I am. You don’t mess with tradition.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

77 comments ↓

#1 Party on on 12.12.20 at 11:01 am

At the end of September, 2020 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $9.336 trillion. At the end of September, 2019 the total debt outstanding was $8.567 trillion. In the 1 year period from the end of September, 2019 to the end of September, 2020 it increased by $769 billion. This is an increase of 8.9%.

Update on the total (household, business, and all levels of government) debt numbers in Canada and the size of the Bank of Canada’s balance sheet

https://owecanada.blogspot.com/2020/12/update-on-total-household-business-and_11.html

#2 Prince Polo on 12.12.20 at 11:02 am

Thanks to the entire Turner Investment team for continuing the tradition of steady hand via free blog for all!

I recall you did a piece a while back on hobby investing and mentioned having a card or two of McDavid. Do you have any Gretzky cards? Yowza!!!
https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/wayne-gretzky-rookie-card-million-1.5837439

#3 UCC on 12.12.20 at 11:07 am

Doug—Do you have comparable Canada Data? A side by side comparison would be interesting.

#4 Repurchase Disagreement on 12.12.20 at 11:10 am

There is absolutely nothing Canada can do to affect the temperature of the planet in any way whatsoever. That is the science.

Also, it is not science to conflate extreme weather events which happen regularly and are nothing new (but who’s reoccurrence is beyond the average attention span of non science oriented gullible people). It’s dishonest. The scientific data is clear that severe weather events are NOT Increasing.

We do, however, have the power to destroy our economy, and to make a lotmif ordinary and poor people’y lives worse.

#5 Camille on 12.12.20 at 11:45 am

Thank you for that, though it was a bit obscure and seems to have gone over my head. Summarizing, everyone averages (no tails) and is generally and always bullish. You will analyze, not to upset tradition, and be a bit more critical.
So, will you address Garth’s persistent belief in rising interest rates, despite a 40 year decline, the absence of inflation, and the Canadian central bank soon holding 50% of Cdn treasuries. And the corresponding belief in collapsing home values, despite the fact that they never go down. Inflation and interest rates would be enough.

I do however appreciate the opportunity to express my thoughts and get useful responses from time to time from Garth and yourself. So thank you.

#6 Axehead on 12.12.20 at 12:24 pm

“That there’s an RV, Clark. Don’t go gettin too jealous of it. We’ll be takin it with us when we leave next month,” cousin Eddie.

#7 KNOW IT ALL on 12.12.20 at 12:39 pm

HAVE a listen to the DOCTOR!!

The demise of REITs, the paradigm shift in the economy, declining US dollar (no surprise there), the EV revolution, and the 1st inning of the Commodity BULL cycle.

Now this man is a GENIUS!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQp_Hqi02NA

#8 C V on 12.12.20 at 12:52 pm

All these forecasts, experts, numbers, charts, graphs, years up, years down… none of it matters. All that matters is the intrinsic value of the USD. When printing goes wild where do you escape the lost value? Real estate? Stocks? Gold? Bitcoin? Rare art? Gambling on America or gambling on something else

#9 Keen Reader on 12.12.20 at 12:58 pm

The markets seem to grow artificially, with P/E ratios thru the roof. Once massive stimulus tapers off, what prevents a big downwards re-pricing? How can past markets even remotely offer insight for what lies ahead?

#10 Andrewski on 12.12.20 at 1:02 pm

Thanks Doug. Another of the many, many great Carlin quotes:

Don’t sweat the petty things and don’t pet the sweaty things.

#11 Doug Rowat on 12.12.20 at 1:26 pm

#2 Prince Polo on 12.12.20 at 11:02 am

I recall you did a piece a while back on hobby investing and mentioned having a card or two of McDavid. Do you have any Gretzky cards? Yowza!!!
https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/wayne-gretzky-rookie-card-million-1.5837439

—-

Yeah, I called the entire sportscard bull market. You come here for good advice, right?

Always listen to hobby nerds.

—Doug

#12 Brian Ripley on 12.12.20 at 2:25 pm

“there is no valid science to estimating stock prices, interest rates, inflation, bond yields, gold, bitcoin or whatever 12 months out.” Barry Ritholtz

My charts of Bitcoin, Gold and Housing as well as Price Momentum and the Millionaire Metric are up: http://www.chpc.biz/

Spike highs abound both in hard and soft assets (Bitcoin) but cash hedgers are bit more demure… example:

In the last 10 years, average SF detached house prices have gone up:
119% in Vancouver
118% in Toronto
but the TSX Real Estate index is only up 62%

And in Calgary, house prices are up only 18% in the last 10 years (a value proposition to some relative to employment earnings in Alberta that are the highest in the land by 8%)

Meanwhile the Millionaire Metric measuring house prices and cash valued in gold bullion shows that 10 years ago one needed 733 ozs of CAD Gold to be a millionaire. Now only 407 ozs are required or 45% less.

None of this should be treated as a “forecast” and exceptions are common in a 10 year trend (Calgary detached house prices) depending on inputs (crude oil prices & the USD).

But one trend that appears to remain in force is the fascinating study of the last 600 years of “real rates of return” by the Bank of England in January 2020 that concludes:

“By the late 2020s, global short term real rates will have reached permanently negative territory. By the second half of this century, global long-term real rates will have followed.” Bank of England

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/category/Interest%20Rates

“With regards to policy, very low real rates can be expected to become a permanent and protracted monetary policy problem – but my evidence still does not support those that see an eventual return to “normalized” levels however defined (for instance Eggertsson, Mehrotra, and Robbins 2017, who contemplate a “nadir” in global real rates in the 2020s): the long-term historical data suggests that, whatever the ultimate driver, or combination of drivers, the forces responsible have been indifferent to monetary or political regimes; they have kept exercising their pull on interest rate levels irrespective of the existence of central banks, (de jure) usury laws, or permanently higher public expenditures. They persisted in what amounted to early modern patrician plutocracies, as well as in modern democratic environments, in periods of low-level feudal Condottieri battles, and in those of professional, mechanized mass warfare.” Bank of England

Forget returning to normal, there appears to be no reason that one should rush into highly leveraged positions and lots of reasons to protect ones ability to generate positive cash flow.

#13 Faron on 12.12.20 at 3:33 pm

#4 Repurchase Disagreement on 12.12.20 at 11:10 am

Patently wrong. It’s a well established branch of statistical climatology called detection and attribution. The media often jumps the gun, but the science is well founded.

Don’t be a toddler for whom when something can’t be seen it must not exist.

#14 Dolce Vita on 12.12.20 at 3:43 pm

I like your charts. Solace for investors.

You used “Covid” only 2 times (2 by others)…nice.

Came across this today, as if you don’t have enough on your 2021 crystal ball plate, NOT about Covid but the vaccines [Biggest risks to global financial markets 2021 by Deutsche Bank]:

https://i.imgur.com/MCM1cI9.png

Top 3 all about the vaccines. Mind you a cooked list where you select the top three. Still, markets worry about vaccine efficacy.

Hope all the vaccines have been cracked up to be is true. I have my doubts about their efficacy claims but NOT a vaccine expert here and firmly in the hope springs eternal camp where WILL GLADLY TAKE THE JAB when it is my turn (if and when the bloody EU Medicine people get off their fanny and approve a vaccine, 0 approvals to date…LAGGARDS).

Again, nice charts in the Blog…informative. Booking marking it.

#15 Paul on 12.12.20 at 3:55 pm

This post deserves careful reading (a few times). Well done – thanks Doug!

#16 Linda on 12.12.20 at 4:22 pm

Today’s pup is looking very debonair & stylish:)

Doug, I do agree that predicting the future is a crapshoot. Whether is is just wishful thinking or unbridled optimism, I think the 2021 markets are poised to continue an upward trajectory. Here is hoping we all of us have a healthy & prosperous 2021.

#17 Felix on 12.12.20 at 4:46 pm

Just imagine if dogawful mutts took the place of reindeer.

They would be so busy sniffing each other’s butts that Santa’s sleigh would stall and crash, cancelling Christmas for everyone around the world.

Think of the children. Get a cat.

#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.12.20 at 5:08 pm

Interesting post Doug. I liked the graphs.
It’ll be interesting to see the fallout in 2021 from Covid, Brexit, Trump, China and , of course, the markets……

#19 Jake on 12.12.20 at 5:15 pm

FAANMG is a stretch for an acronym. Might as well go all the way then with FAANMGS since Shopify leads the pack.

https://tinyurl.com/y27359hd

#20 Drinking on 12.12.20 at 5:37 pm

#17 Felix

Yeah, sorta like a cat jumping on one’s chest and sticking their butt in your face, hey, if you are into that, all to you, I’ll pass!!

So Doug, If I understand (not as smart as Felix, ha) you are projecting more of a K up/down swing in 2021, correct me if I am wrong, thanks!

#21 espressobob on 12.12.20 at 5:53 pm

Forecasting the future as an investor is somewhat impossible. Up, down and sideways and always a mystery. Unforeseen events send many to the exits while a few of us take advantage of a good thing.

The long term trend over time is obviously upward.

Patience and strategy usually win over emotional reactions many tend to do.

Good post Doug. Not sure where it’s going…

#22 Drinking on 12.12.20 at 5:54 pm

#4 Alex

From yesterday’s posting. Since the author in today’s posting mentioned George Carlin; this one if for you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB0aFPXr4n4

#23 Barb on 12.12.20 at 6:02 pm

It’s the 3-year neg run of 2000/1/2 that are of most concern, especially to older investors who worry about a repeat.

#24 short horses on 12.12.20 at 6:36 pm

Thanks for the column, Doug. I always enjoy your forays into markets and charts.

I read something in the Globe & Mail yesterday that was touting real estate (REITs), finance (US banks), and oil & gas as the sectors to target right now. This seems to be about mean reversion since these sectors have continued to struggle since the March lows. Are you forecasting any advantageous sector tilts for 2021 or should we just stay balanced with total market ETFs?

#25 ALL FOR WHAT??? on 12.12.20 at 6:53 pm

To: #22 Drinking on 12.12.20 at 5:54 pm

HAHA…. you got it!

All that fuss and debate we waste our precious time with about money, politics, economies and all for what?

Making all these plans for future generations as if our species is somehow guaranteed a place in the universe.

Just like so many species have become extinct so will ours.

POOF just like that ….. with not a trace to be found.

#26 mmehan on 12.12.20 at 6:54 pm

How does Robin Hood make money if no one pays commissions?

There has to be a cost to running that business somewhere? Thanks.

#27 crossbordershopper on 12.12.20 at 7:00 pm

buying put protection will cover you on the downside. no one ever talks about it or does it. we insure everything else in life without giving it some issues i dont know why people just let there money evaporate and watch it go down. drawdawns are the biggest issues for long term growth, i have seen many people overconcentrate there life, investments, business even education all to blow up. with no insurance.
your money should be protected. its worth the 3% a year to cover black swan events, and even lousy markets or flat markets, because when they move up your there fully entacted to take advantage of it. instead of trying to make up for lost ground. look at all the people i know that have oil and gas stocks, wow, there done forever, and people still hold them, ya that crescent point penny dividend will go a long way in your retirement.

#28 Doug Rowat on 12.12.20 at 7:01 pm

#24 short horses on 12.12.20 at 6:36 pm

Thanks for the column, Doug. I always enjoy your forays into markets and charts.

I read something in the Globe & Mail yesterday that was touting real estate (REITs), finance (US banks), and oil & gas as the sectors to target right now. This seems to be about mean reversion since these sectors have continued to struggle since the March lows. Are you forecasting any advantageous sector tilts for 2021 or should we just stay balanced with total market ETFs?

—-

Currently, the only 2 sectors we break out specifically are REITs and biotech. We also have a small-cap ETF, which effectively gives us an overweight in tech. So there’s my two cents on sectors.

But yes, always hedge your sector-specific outlooks by wrapping these wagers within a diversified portfolio.

—Doug

#29 Mask this! on 12.12.20 at 7:13 pm

Published in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine….

Here are the different mask types with filtration efficacy.

Consumer-grade facemasks:

2-layer woven nylon mask, ear loops, w/o aluminum nose bridge: 44.7%
2-layer woven nylon mask, ear loops, w/ aluminum nose bridge: 56.7%
2-layer woven nylon mask, ear loops, w/ nose bridge, 1 non-woven insert: 74.4%
2-later woven nylon mask, ear loops, w/ nose bridge, washed, no insert: 79%
Cotton bandana – folded Surgeon General style: 50%
Cotton bandana – folded “Bandit” style: 49 %
Single-layer woven polyester gaiter/neck cover (balaclava bandana): 37.8%
Single-layer woven polyester/nylon mask with ties: 39.7%
Non-woven polypropylene mask with fixed ear loops: 28.6%
Three-layer woven cotton mask with ear loops: 26.5%

Medical facemasks and modifications:

3M 9210 NIOSH-approved N95 Respirator: 98%
Surgical mask with ties: 71.4%
Procedure mask with ear loops: 38.5%
Procedure mask with ear loops + “loops tied and corners tucked in”: 60.3%
Procedure mask with ear loops + “Ear Guard”: 61.7%
Procedure mask with ear loops + “23mm claw hair clip”: 64.8%
Procedure mask with ear loops + “Fix-the Mask (3 rubber bands)”: 78.2%
Procedure mask with ear loops + “nylon hosiery sleeve”: 80.2%

Pretty well sums things up why we are in the mess we are in. Not to mention situation exacerbated by the fact that most maskers fail to follow social distancing guidelines since, after all… they are wearing a procedure mask with ear loops.

Head down to your local Costco if you choose to believe otherwise.

#30 Doug Rowat on 12.12.20 at 7:40 pm

#23 Barb on 12.12.20 at 6:02 pm

It’s the 3-year neg run of 2000/1/2 that are of most concern, especially to older investors who worry about a repeat.

—-

The Government of Canada 10-year bond yields 0.71%. That should be far more concerning to older investors.

—Doug

#31 espressobob on 12.12.20 at 7:57 pm

#27 cross-border protection

Put options are expensive and market timing devices that can expire as worthless.

Get a grip.

#32 Prince Polo on 12.12.20 at 8:13 pm

#11 Doug Rowat on 12.12.20 at 1:26 pm
Yeah, I called the entire sportscard bull market. You come here for good advice, right?

Always listen to hobby nerds.

—Doug

========================
As our resident expert, do you:
A) buy sets when they are released (thereby going for luck of the draw)
B) shop for specific cards that you want to add to your collection
C) combination of both?

#33 kc on 12.12.20 at 8:14 pm

29 Mask this! on 12.12.20 at 7:13 pm

In BC we now have the mask Nazi’s with the mandatory cover your face crap….

Walked into the bank friday morning, toque on top pulled low, and a bandanna style face rag…

said to the lady behind the counter… “last year this time if i walked in here with just my eyes showing i would be arrested….”

she knows who i am as i have been dealing there 10 plus years….. nodded at me….. then we got into a discussion about who i am killing by not wearing a mask…. I just shake my head… if you think you are more healthy than I am with your mask on , more power to you…. Live and let live.

next time i will pull my world war 2 gas mask off my wall and wear that… I am sure it will freak out some people.

cheers

#34 Repurchase Disagreement on 12.12.20 at 8:32 pm

#13 Garon

Thanks for assuming I’m a knuckle dragger rather than an actual scientist.

Here is a nice lay-friendly summary you may be able to grapple with:

https://environmentalprogress.org/big-news/2020/6/29/on-behalf-of-environmentalists-i-apologize-for-the-climate-scare

Yes, CO2 has a very minor effect, but the science has been twisted, corrupted, and turned into a religion and a political cudgel. Truth is Canada (nor any other country) cannot change the temperature of the planet, nor weather, regardless of coercive public policy.

#35 willworkforpickles on 12.12.20 at 8:32 pm

A resumption of full economic activity to resume in 2021 according to some analysts is entirely misleading by ignoring the collateral damage that follows with it.
One in particular and a sizeable detail in disregarding the collateral damage done over the previous year with its impact on the overall economy.
The collateral damage in the multitude of permanent small business closures from A to Z. The collateral damage in the loss of jobs that will not be coming back.
But a return to full economic activity they say.
An entirely misleading reality omitting the gritty details they prefer not to mention.
Full economic activity but at a drastically reduced rate of production than prior to 2020 and now with what’s becoming massive systemic unemployment that will take years to fix they selectively leave out.
Analysts (many with an agenda) tend to see the future through rose colored glasses while subtly leaving the dark clouds out of the picture even when giving their worst case projections.

#36 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 12.12.20 at 8:33 pm

My 2021 forecast, I will make more money and inject it with no accountability, impunity, or common sense into this country.

#37 Santa on 12.12.20 at 8:46 pm

Here’s a stocking stuffer for the blog dogs: Canada’s Trudeau Promises $170 / Ton Carbon Tax by 2030
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/12/12/canadas-trudeau-promises-massive-carbon-tax-rise/

#38 Nonplused on 12.12.20 at 8:50 pm

#13 Faron on 12.12.20 at 3:33 pm
#4 Repurchase Disagreement on 12.12.20 at 11:10 am

Patently wrong. It’s a well established branch of statistical climatology called detection and attribution. The media often jumps the gun, but the science is well founded.

Don’t be a toddler for whom when something can’t be seen it must not exist.

———————————–

You speak very confidently about that which cannot be seen. When I was young my pastor did so as well.

The statistics indicate that the chances that Biden won without fraud are les than 0.02%, and those are simple calculations, yet many don’t believe it because they prefer the current outcome and can’t see it. But yet we are to believe even more convoluted math that indicates CO2 (plant food) is causing the end of life on the planet?

Let’s face it folks, the end of society as we know it is not that far away, whether it be global warming, peak oil, or the “green new deal”. Either way it is last one out shut off the lights and dig your own grave because nobody else will.

#39 Dr V on 12.12.20 at 8:59 pm

Doug – post numbers are lagging. Here are three suggestions to increase comments

1) re-instate Sail Away
2) state belief in a conspiracy (Turner Nation will respond) and
3) start an argument with Faron

This comment counts as ‘one’. Good luck!

#40 Dwayne on 12.12.20 at 9:12 pm

“It’s tough to make Predictions, especially about the future” – Yogi Berra

#41 Phylis on 12.12.20 at 9:13 pm

#26 mmehan on 12.12.20 at 6:54 pm If you are getting something for free then they must be selling you. They are selling the data you generate.

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.12.20 at 9:29 pm

@#36 T2’s Magic Money Machine

“My 2021 forecast, I will make more money and inject it with no accountability, impunity, or common sense into this country.”

++++++
hahahaha

Now if only that same machine could make a magical animal……..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BZDZyRaGa8

#43 Santa on 12.12.20 at 9:29 pm

And no more coal left in stockings. It’s too expensive.
You better be good.

#44 Steerage on 12.12.20 at 9:30 pm

#39 Dr V on 12.12.20 at 8:59 pm

Doug – post numbers are lagging. Here are three suggestions to increase comments

1) re-instate Sail Away
2) state belief in a conspiracy (Turner Nation will respond) and
3) start an argument with Faron

This comment counts as ‘one’. Good luck!
……..

The anit-vaxxers and trumpoholics have been vanquished…peace in our time.

#45 Lorne on 12.12.20 at 10:32 pm

#33 kc on 12.12.20 at 8:14 pm
29 Mask this! on 12.12.20 at 7:13 pm

In BC we now have the mask Nazi’s with the mandatory cover your face crap….

Walked into the bank friday morning, toque on top pulled low, and a bandanna style face rag…

said to the lady behind the counter… “last year this time if i walked in here with just my eyes showing i would be arrested….”

she knows who i am as i have been dealing there 10 plus years….. nodded at me….. then we got into a discussion about who i am killing by not wearing a mask…. I just shake my head… if you think you are more healthy than I am with your mask on , more power to you…. Live and let live.

next time i will pull my world war 2 gas mask off my wall and wear that… I am sure it will freak out some people.
………..
Masks: might help, won’t hurt. Show some respect for your fellow citizens by wearing one and perhaps protect them from you (as they are doing for you).

#46 Greet Steongbold on 12.12.20 at 10:40 pm

DELETED

#47 Uncle Charlie on 12.12.20 at 11:20 pm

#39 Dr V

Doug – post numbers are lagging. Here are three suggestions to increase comments

1) re-instate Sail Away
2) state belief in a conspiracy (Turner Nation will respond) and
3) start an argument with Faron

——————–

Lol! Actually, I think someone has an argument going with Faron. That should bring up the totals by tomorrow morning.

(No offence intended Faron, I actually like a lot of your posts. It’s just slim pickings on here tonight. Everyone must be Xmas shopping). :)

#48 Sean on 12.12.20 at 11:35 pm

@Party On:

> At the end of September, 2020 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $9.336 trillion.

And as many have been saying for the US, EU and Japan, their debt can be serviced at a 3%. The moment interest rates start to go up, everything collapses. The same applies to Canada.

Real interest rates won’t be allowed to go up. High inflation is more likely than real interest rates.

Since 2008 people who borrowed at low interest and bought into the everything bubble have done well, but one day this strategy will no longer work and those caught swimming naked will be wiped out. I’d rather stick with close to 0% returns.

(I’m still trying to make up my mind on the issue of what goes more on my nerves: Dolce Vita’s blog-in-blog that no one cares about (but all have to scroll past it) or Apocalypse’s spam with shamelessly wrong predictions.)

#49 Keith on 12.12.20 at 11:43 pm

@#38 Nonplused

Face it. If Trump and his team couldn’t out – defraud the Democrats, a bunch of lazy socialists, he deserves to lose.

#50 Gary C on 12.12.20 at 11:56 pm

Carbon Tax: Will they tax the air that we inhale next?
Clean Fuel Act, EV Tax breaks, but it will cost you more to charge the auto.

Who is really controlling this guy, and Freeland, a finance minister with no accounting degree.
This guarantees more business will move to the Red States, as California is demonstrating.

#51 Bankish on 12.13.20 at 12:01 am

Doug

This is one of the best articles I have read in a long time, but figuratively speaking now that you have led the horses to water how do you get them to drink?
It is obvious to some that you should invest in good companies and stay invested over time no matter what is happening to the economy as a whole. As a retiree I have a blue chip dividend portfolio and I only trade sideways to acquire maybe a higher dividend or reduce risk and the money stays in the stocks.
I hope people believe what you are saying and I can tell you from my own experience that my dividends are up 30% in 4.5 years and even in this softer market the portfolio is up 15%.That’s even with me spending all the dividends and a little bit more every year.(We like to travel)
Good luck to all and have a Merry Christmas

#52 Shelley Merven on 12.13.20 at 12:13 am

Wow!! CRA really screws the pooch on payment pay backs. They state nothing about eligibility on the application page of CERB and provide no link to “Q&A page they state contains pertinent information detailing eligibility. Without a link or explanation how is anyone going to know which one of trillions of net pages contain the CRA weasel words?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-cerb-benefits-payback-1.5838395

I read the applications page in wonderment thinking there must be some qualifier or means testing, there is not. The application page shows no requirement to test qualification.

This is a total scandal of monstrous proportion. The Trudeau government has deceived hundreds of thousands of people into applying for a phony loan scam. Either a Party or a Lawyer must take form action against the government agents on behalf of the misled and misled.

People entered into a contract. The contract was the application page. Now the CRA is trying to add on an addendum stating a new criteria. No !!! In no way at no time in history can you unilaterally bridge new terms into a contract without bilateral consent. Get a judge on this, now !!

Read the article !!!

#53 Ustabe on 12.13.20 at 1:07 am

#33 kc on 12.12.20 at 8:14 pm

Tell me, kc, do you wear your seat belt while driving?

#54 VanoMano on 12.13.20 at 2:52 am

#26 @mmehan
As far as I understand, and I could be wrong. They sell trade order data to high frequency trading firms who then front run the trade and make a small spread based on your limit price or market price order

#55 ain't nothing for free on 12.13.20 at 7:39 am

@54 VanoMano

you’re basically right but it’s a little more complicated than that…

Market makers pay for order flow. Robinhood however allows and pushes the ability to buy FRACTIONAL shares. the only way you can do this is via market orders. they bundle all the market orders together. you can’t do that if they are limit orders. Robinhood does monster volume on market orders.

it’s not just Robinhood. TD Ameritrade, ETrade, Schwab all do the same thing.

Interactive Brokers is the only large firm that DOES NOT sell their order flow.

here’s a good link that explains it all

https://www.warriortrading.com/payment-for-order-flow/#:~:text=Payment%20for%20order%20flow%20is,in%20your%20TD%20Ameritrade%20account

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.13.20 at 9:06 am

@#47 Uncle Charlie
“Actually, I think someone has an argument going with Faron.”

++++

Did someone tell Faron the sky was blue again?

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.13.20 at 9:21 am

@#52 Shelly Maven
“This is a total scandal of monstrous proportion.”

++++

The only thing monstrous was our elected officials thinking that anyone that earned $5000 (net OR Gross) in 2019 was eligible for $13,000.00 in CERB handouts.

The amount of students, part timers, scofflaws, etc that flocked to that cash fandango was disgusting.

It was way to soon and way too much money.

EI claimants had their EI claims shifted automatically over to CERB, retirees, etc, way way too many people received cash they didnt ask for or didnt really need.
And what did we see?
Sales of big boy toys through the roof.
Back in the Spring and Summer
Try and get a big screen tv, a quad-runner, etc etc etc OR the smarter people just banked it…..knowing that the CRA NEVER forgets.
Think these people are the only unfortunates that have to pay it all back?
Pffft.
Its just the first wave of screeching, wailing voters that will be hounded by CRA for either the return of the full amount of payment or the taxes owed…..
None of which the voters will have.
Just remember CERBians…….it was Trudeau that created this budget deficit taxation disaster.

And we’re ALL going to pay for it.

:)

Time for my first cup of the day.

#58 Dharma Bum on 12.13.20 at 9:29 am

#17 Felix

They would be so busy sniffing each other’s butts that Santa’s sleigh would stall and crash, cancelling Christmas for everyone around the world.
——————————————————————–

Exactly what the know-nothing politician geniuses at every level, federal, state, provincial, regional, and municipal have been doing. Running around in circles, sniffing each other’s butts, and cancelling Christmas.

After all, they are a bunch of dogs.

#59 Dharma Bum on 12.13.20 at 9:39 am

#40 Dwayne

“It’s tough to make Predictions, especially about the future” – Yogi Berra
——————————————————————–

“And then I’ll call pup tentacle
I’ll ask him how’s his chin
I’ll find out
How the future is
‘Cause that’s where he’s been”

~ Frank Zappa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IglQbP-M7_w

#60 Toronto_CA on 12.13.20 at 10:50 am

I don’t think of unneeded CERB as fraud and terrible as much as it is akin to stimulus cheques sent to the lowest earners to help keep demand going during an unprecedented economic shock (a demand shock at that).

There’s worse things in the world than low earning self employed people being given money to spend on goods and services.

Like giving that money to extremely wealthy individuals or corporations who have seen no discernable hit to revenues and profits (or worse, have seen an increase in both) since the virus came to town.

Just my 2 cents. I am one of those weird fiscal conservatives who likes the idea of UBI (while wiping away all the redundant programs and bureaucracy aimed at doing the same thing at super high cost to both personal dignity and taxpayer coffers).

#61 the Jaguar on 12.13.20 at 11:14 am

@#38 Nonplused on 12.12.20 at 8:50 pm

”Because sometimes in poker it’s smarter to lose with a winning hand so you can win later with a losing hand. And politicians can never quite believe that – because they want the power now.” Jack Weil, professional poker player.

I’ll get punted by Garth for posting this, but it’s for you NonPlused. And just ignore the little Troll who repeatedly makes vicious personal attacks instead of sticking to the issue at hand. He’s done it repeatedly to other posters. Psychological issues.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/12/epic-army-navy-crowd-erupts-chants-usa-usa-president-trump-steps-football-field-game-video/

#62 Linda on 12.13.20 at 11:32 am

#33 ‘kc’ – more likely folks will compliment you on your unique mask & ask where you got it!

#63 Russ on 12.13.20 at 11:54 am

Shelley Merven on 12.13.20 at 12:13 am

Wow!! CRA really screws the pooch on payment pay backs…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-cerb-benefits-payback-1.5838395

… The Trudeau government has deceived hundreds of thousands of people …

=========================================

It does seem like such a sad story but the Grinch comes by at Christmas Time each year.

The CRA just needs to get it’s work done. And all Canadians need to buck up now and pay their fair share.
Stop the whining and take out a HELOC to get it done. Rates are cheap enough.

And we can’t go back to WE Charity or corporations or Africa and other poor nations to recapture the largess Trudeau dished out in the Pandemic Euphoria, so CRA is stuck with sticking it to the average Canadian.

Move along, nothing to see here. Move along and wear the mask so we cannot see your shame.

Cheers, R

#64 TurnerNation on 12.13.20 at 12:18 pm

What else is there to say. 2020: the year people were locked in their homes, small business orders closed as world-wide Communism is introduced.
Call it timing – for Agenda 21(2021) into Agenda 2030.
(That’s ten more years of daily changes being pushed fyi)

Anyone who had even a shred of exposure to these things is mildly unsurprised at today’s events.

What’s coming. Does it matter? Use your imagination. Check the books of History. This isn’t about your health. In fact Ontariowe is passing an Assisted-death bill.
“You are free to leave at any time. No really you are”

At any rate: Control over our Feeding, Breeding and Movements/Travel.

‘They’ll stone you just like they said they would; everybody must get stoned.’

#65 Dr V on 12.13.20 at 12:25 pm

60 TCA – I don’t consider UBI as leftist if it is administered as you suggest. I am willing to examine it and consider it carefully.

But CERB was meant as income replacement from work lost due to a government order. What difference does it make if the 60 yr old restaurant manager with considerable savings lost their job as opposed to the 19 yr old server? They both lost income.

My personal experience was that I kept working, took a
hit to my wage (half for two pay periods) then resumed course full speed ahead, or close enough that it made little if any difference. No CERB for me.

My wife however, checked with her clients, who were basically shutting down for an undetermined time, collected CERB for 2 months, then the backlog was enough she returned to work as before and has carried on since. CERB will be added to her taxable income.

Now during this time, we bought investments on the downside, and have probably made 30% on a six figure
total of purchases. I then removed $12k from the portfolio to pay some taxes. As the gain is prorated over the entire fund or holding, only a portion of
the withdrawal is recognized as a gain so tax will be
almost negligible (you would know this)

And of course, UBI being ‘universal’ would be collected
by you, me, Garth, Sydney Crosby and Jimmy Pattison.

#66 kc on 12.13.20 at 12:27 pm

#45 Lorne on 12.12.20 at 10:32 pm

Masks: might help, won’t hurt. Show some respect for your fellow citizens by wearing one and perhaps protect them from you (as they are doing for you).

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Hey, you want to wear a mask it is your privilege to do so. you want to lather your hands in chemicals, go ahead. you want to force your beliefs on me, it is my rights to question you. I will not tell you to not wear a mask, rag, or cheese cloth if that is what you want to do.

I will take responsibility for my own well being. Being forced by governments and possible fines for not following a rule/law/mandate that is not proven to help any more than being a placebo, great do what makes you feel safe.

I feel safe not wearing one. live and let live.

——-

#53 Ustabe on 12.13.20 at 1:07 am

#33 kc on 12.12.20 at 8:14 pm

Tell me, kc, do you wear your seat belt while driving?

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

True story, mid 80’s I was in a roll over accident, if I was wearing a seat belt then, I would have broken my neck as I would have been sitting upside down on impact. Luckily without a belt I was able to reach under the seat and pull my body tight to the seat and reduce impact.

It is law to wear them as to what is safe and not safe… and this question really has nothing to do with a virus that you can not control.

Question for you 2…. if you got a test and it says positive for covid, would you rather lick the petri dish at 20 CT or 40 CT? and at which result would you ask for a second test to know if you are sick or how sick you are?

Know what you talk about before you take a knife to a gun fight.

#67 Sara on 12.13.20 at 12:32 pm

#61 Jaguar
“And just ignore the little Troll who repeatedly makes vicious personal attacks instead of sticking to the issue at hand. He’s done it repeatedly to other posters. Psychological issues.”

SailAway is back?

#68 Sara on 12.13.20 at 12:38 pm

#38 Nonplussed

“The statistics indicate that the chances that Biden won without fraud are les than 0.02%, and those are simple calculations, yet many don’t believe it because they prefer the current outcome and can’t see it.”

Of course you would fall for that. LOL.

“But yet we are to believe even more convoluted math that indicates CO2 (plant food) is causing the end of life on the planet?”

So let me get this straight, you believe one dude’s flawed application of statistics, yet don’t believe a whole body of scientific evidence that man-made climate change is a thing.

Give your head a shake man.

#69 Phylis on 12.13.20 at 12:40 pm

#48 Sean on 12.12.20 at 11:35 pm I’m glad you are enjoying the TN posts.
Just helping out the comment count.

#70 kc on 12.13.20 at 12:44 pm

62 Linda on 12.13.20 at 11:32 am

#33 ‘kc’ – more likely folks will compliment you on your unique mask & ask where you got it!

XXXXX

Some peoples’ grandparents kept their war supplies.

#71 UmiouiuS on 12.13.20 at 12:47 pm

Wowza ..!! This week’s Financial Post ‘Family Finance’:

https://financialpost.com/personal-finance/family-finance/this-couple-made-a-fortune-in-apple-shares-now-they-have-to-turn-it-into-a-stable-retirement

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.13.20 at 12:55 pm

Hmmmm.
Another day.
Another pro Trump protest.
Shoulder to shoulder.
Shouting….mask-less….
They…. just…. dont… get… it.

https://www.citynews1130.com/video/2020/12/12/trump-supporters-protest-election-results-in-washington/

Covid infections going up again among Republican’s just in time for Christmas?

#73 Sara on 12.13.20 at 1:06 pm

#66 kc on 12.13.20 at 12:27 pm
#45 Lorne on 12.12.20 at 10:32 pm

Masks: might help, won’t hurt. Show some respect for your fellow citizens by wearing one and perhaps protect them from you (as they are doing for you).

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Hey, you want to wear a mask it is your privilege to do so. you want to lather your hands in chemicals, go ahead. you want to force your beliefs on me, it is my rights to question you. I will not tell you to not wear a mask, rag, or cheese cloth if that is what you want to do.

I will take responsibility for my own well being. Being forced by governments and possible fines for not following a rule/law/mandate that is not proven to help any more than being a placebo, great do what makes you feel safe.

I feel safe not wearing one. live and let live.

——————————————-

Fine. Live how you like. But stay the heck away from the rest of us. We are perfectly happy to let you live your life ostracized from the rest of society.

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.13.20 at 1:10 pm

Another nail in the coffin of that bloated govt bureaucracy know as the CBC?

https://www.canadaland.com/the-president-of-the-cbc-lives-in-brooklyn/

Its good to know that the public still “has trust in CBC journalists…”

That would be the 300,000 Canadians that actually tune into the CBC?

$1 billion dollars per year for 300,000 viewers in a country of 38,000,000 people.

I’m just glad to know Catherine Tate is rakeing in her $400,000 -$460,000 salary as she “Zoom’s” in from her Brooklyn Brownstone in her jammies.

The CBC.
More taxpayer dollars urinated against a wall.

#75 Lorne on 12.13.20 at 1:18 pm

#66 kc on 12.13.20 at 12:27 pm
#45 Lorne on 12.12.20 at 10:32 pm

Masks: might help, won’t hurt. Show some respect for your fellow citizens by wearing one and perhaps protect them from you (as they are doing for you).

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Hey, you want to wear a mask it is your privilege to do so. you want to lather your hands in chemicals, go ahead. you want to force your beliefs on me, it is my rights to question you. I will not tell you to not wear a mask, rag, or cheese cloth if that is what you want to do.

I will take responsibility for my own well being. Being forced by governments and possible fines for not following a rule/law/mandate that is not proven to help any more than being a placebo, great do what makes you feel safe.

I feel safe not wearing one. live and let live.

——-

#53 Ustabe on 12.13.20 at 1:07 am

#33 kc on 12.12.20 at 8:14 pm

Tell me, kc, do you wear your seat belt while driving?

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

True story, mid 80’s I was in a roll over accident, if I was wearing a seat belt then, I would have broken my neck as I would have been sitting upside down on impact. Luckily without a belt I was able to reach under the seat and pull my body tight to the seat and reduce impact.

It is law to wear them as to what is safe and not safe… and this question really has nothing to do with a virus that you can not control.

Question for you 2…. if you got a test and it says positive for covid, would you rather lick the petri dish at 20 CT or 40 CT? and at which result would you ask for a second test to know if you are sick or how sick you are?

Know what you talk about before you take a knife to a gun fight.
……….
Well, sad to see you have no concern about your fellow citizens….I will continue to have some concern for you…in many ways. Nowhere did I say I want to wear a mask….it is a sign of caring for others. Wearing a mask to protect you from much of my potential virus spreading aerosols is just one way.
Although I wasn’t involved in the conversation re seatbelts, I can tell you that I am able to respond to you today because I was wearing one when I fell asleep and drove off a highway and down a 20 foot bank. Surprisingly I was resting upside down in the car and was able to release myself and crawl through the broken window. The RCMP officer assured me that I was alive due to the seatbelt. I do not recommend trying this out to find out…..just like masks: might help, won’t hurt….wear both of them.

Your other comments do not warrant a response.

#76 baloney Sandwitch on 12.13.20 at 4:07 pm

You will note that the chart is not a bell curve. Its skews towards bullishness.

#77 Drinking on 12.13.20 at 5:25 pm

#25 ALL FOR WHAT???

Yes I agree, if anything this virus has taught us that most are good but there is that certain percentage that spoil it for the rest; unfortunately they get the most attention!

Stay safe and live life!!