Reality

As the first shots of vax enter the longing arms of a virus-weary nation, there is hope. By next summer the herd may be dosed enough for life to seem normal. Let’s hope. This has been a dark time, although we always knew the pandemic would be temporary.

But what about the residue?

There’s some evidence the economic and financial damage of Covid could be, well, permanent. For example, the national debt will have doubled by the time this is over, and stand at an incredible $1.4 trillion. In a country where the entire economy’s only $2 trillion in size, that is daunting. Besides, family debt now exceeds $2 trillion – so add that in. (The household debt ratio just soared to 170% of income.) And did I mention the provinces? No? Well, they owe another $700 billion – half of it Ontario alone.

None of this is going away, or being paid down. In fact the feds have plans to spend another $100 billion on re-engineering the economy (whatever that means) in the immediate post-Covid years. That scares the Parliament Budget Officer, who this week said: ““Our labor market projections currently suggest that the size and timing of the planned fiscal stimulus may be mis-calibrated.” Atta boy, Yves Giroux.

But, I hear the rabble cry, all this spending was needed to shield us from the slimy little pathogen, so we could Zoom, Netflix and buy groceries.

Indeed. Mr. Socks doled out more than $250 billion in CERB and other payments. The results are interesting:

  • The personal savings rate went from 7% to 28% in mid-2020.
  • Personal bankruptcies across Canada plunged
  • Food bank usage fell noticeably
  • The real estate market caught fire with leaping sales and prices
  • Sales of quads, bikes, hot tubs and home reno materials soared
  • Personal and business cash savings exploded, says CIBC, to $170 billion

And while the feds were papering over the virus, banks deferred mortgages, credit card companies waived payments and a whole lot of people in low-wage jobs found they had more money in Trudeau largesse than had been in their paycheques, pre-bug.

But what now?

Troubles, maybe. The second wave has hit and it’s worse than the first. Toronto’s locked down. Alberta and the flat provinces are a mess. Cases are rising and Christmas is cancelled. Meanwhile there seems to be a little sober second thought going on in Ottawa after realizing more than 800,000 people who got CERB money may not have deserved it.

Alex and thousands more received this letter in the last few days:

He has no intention of paying anything back, since he didn’t cash the cheques (apparently he had no direct deposit). Alex just wanted to frame them, which he did. All $12,000 worth. In his bathroom.

Who cares about the accumulated debt or our $383 billion deficit this year? Angus Reid found only 23% of people are fussed by it. Nik Nanos last month discovered a scant 11% think the economy’s a top priority. This is why the T2 gang wouldn’t mind an election any time soon. Politicians who dole out money tend to be popular.

Of course, the dopamines won’t be swimming through our veins forever. Never before has this thinly-populated nation faced such a level of indebtedness. And no, kids, we don’t just owe the money to ourselves. If not for historically-ridiculous interest rates, what’s just happened in 2020 would be economically devastating. The cost of servicing such an alpine of debt would suck off a serious amount of government revenues.

But rates will stay this low forever, right? Many believe that. And they err.

As the virus fades, economies expand and GDP reflates, inflation and higher rates will materialize. There will be a giant economic stimulus bill soon in the States. Vaccines are starting to roll out globally. The Biden guys will spend up a storm. Central bank bond-buying will end in a while (already being tapered back), allowing yields to rise. Global growth will resume in the next two years, commodity prices will swell and investors will be demanding a premium for owning oceans of debt.

As mortgage broker/blogger Rob McLister warns:

By the time COVID case counts start heading in the right direction and enough people are vaccinated, both of which should happen by spring-ish or summer, say analysts, the market could start pricing in Bank of Canada policy tightening. That will be a signal to investors to take yields higher (i.e., sell bonds). Higher yields mean higher fixed mortgage rates.

He also points out that while this damn Second Wave is brutal, bond yields have not been dropping as they did during the first viral assault. “When bad news doesn’t hammer yields, it often suggests the market is gearing up to run in the other direction.” Exactly. Everybody in the financial world knows where this is headed. You should know it, too.

So pay back your CERB by the end of the month or be prepared for CRA grief. Lock in your mortgage rate, too. Maybe there are a few more basis points yet to save, but we all know a year from now these deals will be so gone. And make sure you have a nice pile of rate reset preferreds (or a good pref ETF) in your portfolio, constituting half the fixed-income component. They pay close to 5% for just sitting there, and will jump in capital value as rates back up.

Oh yeah, be careful who you vote for. Nothing’s free, and reality bites.

155 comments ↓

#1 Prussian blue on 12.11.20 at 2:01 pm

Thank you for the blog and advise.
Picking your brain and any readers out there: any suggestions for preferred ETF?

#2 Catalyst on 12.11.20 at 2:22 pm

Canada is toast. T2 released his new carbon tax regime and will soak you at the pumps for 37cents a litre by 2030. Luckily, we will be giving tax breaks to the upper middle class to buy their $80k electric truck. Why is everything they touch so messed up, just get out of the way and let the free market optimize. Companies are going green due to customer demands why force the issue with broken policies???

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ottawa-hike-federal-carbon-tax-172503196.html

#3 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.11.20 at 2:24 pm

Be careful who you vote for.
————-
By the time the next election comes along, the economy will be roaring and everything will be forgotten.
You may be looking at more of JT, unless the Cons find a guy who can turn on young voters.
This is not over by a long shot.
Keep masking up and stay safe.

#4 Alex on 12.11.20 at 2:29 pm

@#2

Wow, 2021 almost and people still mad at the Carbon Tax? Grow up! What is your perfect suggestion instead of it? Do you even know the concept? You will get most of that money back, the aim is at reducing carbon emissions by inciting better behaviour.
Litterally, what is wrong with that?

#5 yvr_lurker on 12.11.20 at 2:35 pm

Once again only blaming the unwarranted CERB payments that flowed to some indviduals; narry a single word on the excess CEW payments paid to certain businesses that have done very well during the pandemic

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/cews-wage-subsidy-jobs-covid-1.5834790

These companies have herd immunity from any critique.

The quiz question last week was to estimate the size of the size of the federal defecit. Another key question, is what percentage of this 381 Billion defecit was over the top and not needed for legitimate support of businesses and citizens during the pandemic? 10% too much, 50% too much?

#6 Bguy1 on 12.11.20 at 2:39 pm

Re: CERB repayment for self employment: amend your 2019 return to make your net business or net professional income $5,000. Yoi do not have to deduct your expenses.

Note: may not be able to do this is if you have already received the CRA letter, it worth a try.

Second note: Amending the return upward will likely result in a small amount of CPP being owed, maybe some income taxes, possibly your spouse may end up re-assessed as well if they claimed you as an dependent. May also reduce your monthly CCB if you have kids.
However a few hundred or one thousand is better than 14k

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 2:40 pm

@#2 Catalyst
“T2 released his new carbon tax regime and will soak you at the pumps for 37cents a litre by 2030. ”

++++

I would expect nothing else from the “spend then tax” Liberals.

Prepare for the tax wave Millennials, or be drowned by it…….

#8 Catalyst on 12.11.20 at 2:50 pm

@#4 – “Grow up! Do you even know the concept? You will get most of that money back, the aim is at reducing carbon emissions by inciting better behaviour.”

Lol, listen to yourself. You are inciting better behaviour by giving the money back you took? Not much of a disincentive.

#9 Diamond Dog on 12.11.20 at 2:54 pm

Well said Garth. Angus Reid found only 23% were fussed? That means the percentage of financial illiteracy is only 77%! We’ve got our work cut out for us. :/

So lets see… $1.4 trillion in fed debt, presumably where we’ll be by the end of next year, $750 billion in provincial debt by the end of next year, municipalities must owe at least $300 billion now, more like $ 350 by the end of next year, that’s 2.5 trillion worth of intergovernmental public debt for a 2 trillion dollar economy. By the end of 2021 wait, that’s 120 to 125% public debt to GDP am I missing anything?

That can’t be right, is that right? We had a currency crisis in the 90’s at a 100%. What’s going on in the Liberal party, is everyone high? They legalized it, fair question. They can’t be traitors, they are Liberals but do they know what they’ve done? Have they got even a small semblance of a clue?

#10 Middleagedmania on 12.11.20 at 2:54 pm

40 years old with 350k cash in the bank and 750k in retirement funds. We have been renting for last two years. Garth should I buy a house now or wait?

#11 Alex on 12.11.20 at 2:54 pm

@ Catalyst

‘Not much disincentive”

Exactly! So why are you whining? The free market has utterly failed the climate, why would you even think it is fine and dandy?

Man, boomers!

#12 Friedman’s Ghost on 12.11.20 at 2:57 pm

There’s no such thing as a free lunch…

I believe a recent guest blog writer had that as a nickname. I wonder why?!

#13 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 12.11.20 at 2:57 pm

All debt is not equal.From the 2 trillion of consumer debt 1.7 is mortgage debt. While an eye popping number the argument could be made that not all of it is really debt as people need to live somewhere.
If we look at it as an investment holding by a bank ( which really it is, as you don’t own the place until you pay) true debt would be Mortgage amount – Assessed Equity – Average Rental. With bankruptcy rates being insignificant this is a defensible argument.
The issue that I see as others called it out is the lack of economic diversification and the focus on service jobs during this new industrial revolution. And ofcourse our past governments either spending like drunken sailors( liberal) or throwing the needy under the bus while hoping ( instead of planning) for O&G rebound ( conservatives).
Say what you want about the US and China but at least they both have long term national visions that are not UN friendly and investing heavily in their own vision.

#14 Keith on 12.11.20 at 3:06 pm

Trudeau is clearly gearing up for a spring election, bought and paid for by checkbook governance. I have accused him and the NDP of checkbook campaigning in the last election, now we have the execution (cough) of that reality. When the dust settles, very few Canadians or their workplaces will be left off the gravy train. Out here in B.C., most families will soon have their own $1000 share of 1.7 billion in perceived free money, compliments of their children and grandchildrens upcoming tax burden.

Despite the views of the steerage section of this blog, O’Toole is in tough. An early election call leaves him with not a hill to climb, but a mountain. Nearly 100% of blog dogs were concerned about the deficit, and the debt before the pandemic. Now we know how out of step the nation is, at 23%. The mind boggles, but this bodes well for Trudeau and not for any other party. The window of opportunity for the Liberals is apparent and small – recent free money, and their feel good version of a green compassionate economy.

O’Toole is in the corner of being the wet blanket – the uninspiring (to most) message of fiscal sanity, the tired message of tax cuts and deregulation that younger voters won’t buy.

The Liberals move adroitly around the center of the Canadian political spectrum, dictated by the polls. Moving to the right or the left trying to capture the magic 38% of the vote. The voters have spoken via the polls. Watch your assets.

#15 Steve Crotty on 12.11.20 at 3:06 pm

Is TSE:ZPR a good preffered share ETF?

#16 Andrewski on 12.11.20 at 3:08 pm

CERB for those who need it & genuinely qualified, good, otherwise, shame, shame, shame.

#17 flop... on 12.11.20 at 3:14 pm

yesterday Garth cited this laughable quote with consulting Doug Rowat “… or sports figure trading cards. It’s difficult to see how they can have value in the long run.”

today’s news: https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/gretzky-rookie-card-sells-for-more-than-1-million-at-auction-170121994.html

#18 enough people are vaccinated on 12.11.20 at 3:15 pm

funny

What will be the acceptable threshold by the government? In number of dead of course

#19 greyhound on 12.11.20 at 3:17 pm

Just saw this comment on the current Robinhood phenomenon…
|||
“Option manipulation is never ending and nimble
traders are making money forcing individual stock moves with concentrated, leveraged call buying. The degree of credit leverage exerted far surpasses the
leverage seen during the 1928-29 period. This time around, it’s not just traditional margin accounts but also incredible possibilities with assorted option ‘plays’. With a credit card and a lap top or i-phone, a 20-something can ‘control’ the price of TSLA, with all his buddies plugged into a flash mob buying gobs of assorted call options, thus forcing the ‘other side’ to keep buying the underlying stock. Trend chasing always lasts … until it suddenly stops.”
|||
Instead of toilet paper, maybe folks should be stocking up on popcorn to witness the coming fireworks…

#20 Dolce Vita on 12.11.20 at 3:20 pm

Good to read My Liege that there are still Canadians of some stature willing to say NO to the morally bankrupt. Time for them to make amends and payback the money.

800,000. Mind you 8.90M unique applications as of Oct. 4 so 9% gamed the system. If the numbers did not change, then of the $250B expect about $25B to be paid back, tops?

That $25B what a bad year deficit used to be. For the first time ever I’m rooting for the CRA.

Yup, just another COVID-19 day on Planet Earth.

https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/ei/claims-report.html

[Nicely said Garth, indeed]

#21 Overheardyou on 12.11.20 at 3:33 pm

I really wonder why Basic Economics is not a mandatory course in the education curriculum.

#22 mike from mtl on 12.11.20 at 3:37 pm

..And make sure you have a nice pile of rate reset preferreds (or a good pref ETF) in your portfolio, constituting half the fixed-income component…
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Oh no, don’t get sucked into that malarkey again, remember 2015-2016?? Rates going up right, oil bust and prefs sold off hard. Fed/BoC then started to raise more bullets, to only drop to .25 in the span of 12 months, Repo madness and the ‘rona.

We’re going to be at 0.1,0.0 or -0.25 easily for years.

#23 Inequity on 12.11.20 at 3:39 pm

#8 Catalyst

maybe the carbon tax will restart the economy… think of all the jobs that will be created to keep track of everone who paid the carbon tax so that they can then take a little off the top and pay it back. Its green…. and its part of the great reset. :P

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 3:47 pm

Hmmm

71,000,000 infected worldwide.
301,000 now dead in the US…increasing by 2-3000 per day possibly 500,000 dead by Inauguration Day?

Maybe when the people that were cheering Trump on at his rally’s start seeing their friends and family dropping like flies….they’ll finally clue in.

#25 Jimmy Zhao on 12.11.20 at 3:48 pm

Members of Parliament, their staff and families have access to a private testing clinic for COVID-19.

You can bet that MP’s and families will get ‘front of the line’ access to the vaccine.

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 3:49 pm

@#21 Over Heard
“I really wonder why Basic Economics is not a mandatory course in the education curriculum.”
++++
At least it should be mandatory at Prime Minister’s pre-school.

#27 Dolce Vita on 12.11.20 at 3:51 pm

The telling graphic about vaccinations from CTV National News 2 nights ago (procurement delivery promises, Health Canada data, etc.):

https://i.imgur.com/smk8tmD.png

Graphic sheds light on the “when” will it be OVER?

No one knows what the exact number is for COVID-19 vaccine herd immunity. Medical people say 60-70%, maybe as low as 50% or as high as 80%.

The TRUTH is they don’t know and are using herd immunity numbers from other disease vaccinations from the past.

Even at 50% you are looking at:

3rd week of May?

Recall Pfizer process = 31 days (jab 1 + 15d + jab 2 + 10d).

Late “Spring-ish”.

————————-

If it’s 70%, as most Medical people like to use as an average for herd immunity, well that happens in:

1st week of July (Optimist – beginning of the month dates from CTV graphic above)

Plotted it as so, eyeball on your own or better DIY, use a Scatter Plot NOT line plot…no worries about the missing data points (could have fudged them in, too lazy and not necessary):

https://i.imgur.com/bKmKEzZ.png

————————-

Now 70% herd immunity on CANADA DAY…I’m ALL in on that.

Now if that could only happen in the APPROVAL LAGGARD Children Born out of Wedlock European Union Gov, THAT would also be double the nice.

#28 Flop... on 12.11.20 at 3:55 pm

#17 flop… on 12.11.20 at 3:14
yesterday Garth cited this laughable quote with consulting Doug Rowat “… or sports figure trading cards. It’s difficult to see how they can have value in the long run.”

today’s news: https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/gretzky-rookie-card-sells-for-more-than-1-million-at-auction-170121994.html

///////////////////////

Great….Fake flop is back!

I saw you post yesterday, and today you came back for seconds.

Who do you want me to send around your house to give you a lecture as your punishment for not being able to choose your own name?

Option one…Crowdie giving you a lecture on teachers and public servants.

Option two…Dolce Vita giving you a lecture on COVID.

Option three… MF giving you s lecture on why Toronto is the best city on the planet…

M46BC

#29 Dolce Vita on 12.11.20 at 3:57 pm

PS:

On the WHEN chart, I’m assuming when CTV says “vaccinated” they mean done like dinner, all 31d complete.

If not, make it Aug. 1 (Optimist) for 70% herd immunity.

Handy chart, use it to figure out “WHEN” as humanity learns more about COVID-19 herd immunity AND

if the procurement people (vaccine side) were telling Canada the truth.

Good luck with both of those Canada.

#30 TurnerNation on 12.11.20 at 4:06 pm

Not much to post about these days. Sit back, and await.
Slowly the globalists play their hand and wind down the economy and small business.
In order for the UBI in Q1 natch.

Science or the New World Order. You decide. For your health Comrade!
………
“York Region and Windsor-Essex will both be placed under lockdown on Monday” – Ontario

#31 Steven Rowlandson on 12.11.20 at 4:08 pm

Each and every Canadian could pay double or triple taxes and it would make no difference to the level of debt except the debt might get bigger due to government spending and borrowing.
The very concept of frugality and fiscal responsibility is unknown to Canadian governments.

#32 Linda on 12.11.20 at 4:18 pm

Pay back CERB received ‘in error’ by December 31st of this year? Good luck with that. News article I read suggested CRA will not charge late penalties for any such overpayment. I suppose that if someone spent the lot & can’t pay it back that the CRA could arrange to recover the funds via a garnishee on future earnings or by redirecting any income tax refunds owing to the repayment of CERB. Or have the recipient set up an automated payment just like they can with any other loan.

#33 Guelph Guru on 12.11.20 at 4:24 pm

A great blog post. A big thanks for sharing your glimpses of the road ahead. Very much appreciate it.
Your logic makes sense and unless Mr. Trump starts a nuclear war (very low probability), we are steadily marching towards higher rates (high probability).
Inflation is the only way to absorb the pile of debt and raising rates is the only option to avoid hyperinflation.

#34 Diamond Dog on 12.11.20 at 4:27 pm

Liberals, juste un tas de gosses stupides sac de merde. We’re vulnerable to any kind of shock now, baked in if we keep on the path we’re on. A trade war, military war, even a modest jump in rates, a commodity crash, climate change rolling the dice with unprecedented drought and forest fires, another pandemic, bond market disruption, wth did we do!

Got to have a break from that. MedCram came out with a 55 minute video on Vitamin D and it’s effects with Covid19 studies and trials (40 or 50, I lost count), its high information and it all points to one thing. Take it!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha2mLz-Xdpg

It’s the best video hands down on Vitamin D trials pre and post Covid19 connecting all the dots we know so far. It would not surprise me if MedCram further connected the dots with Zinc, Zinc Ionophores and Vitamin C (explaining the endothelial weirdness of this disease), these guys are sharp.

An explanation of who MedCram is, in case anyone is interested:

https://medicaljustice.com/medcram-covid-19-dr-roger-seheult/

#35 calgary rip off on 12.11.20 at 4:30 pm

Im not so sure.

Research shows an inappropriate switch of antibodies in response to covid infection followed by a decline thereafter of antibody production. Additionally, there is often T cell fatigue and nutrient depletion shown in some studies. Today two vaccines showed ineffective in some elderly that received the vaccine, why this happened is unclear. Additionally in Queensland a vaccine has been pulled after recipients showed false positives for HIV, a spike protein had been used to manufacture this vaccine(zerohedge).

There are multiple factors in immunity. I hope Im wrong in saying that by the time this is over in several years many businesses will be gone.

Couple with possible vaccine ineffectiveness or allergic reactions many will elect to take no vaccine. Although I want the vaccine Im very hesitant as the data is very very general and doesn’t answer very specific questions as to risk long term as there is no data yet. And it is unclear whether unknown risks are justified vs. real covid. So many unanswered questions. While experts have developed the vaccines, there are many unclear questions yet answered. I think I will get the vaccine, although I prefer the adenovirus version over the mRNA. Why? Proven technology. Im ok suffering with bad side effects if it proves efficacious. And whats great about Canada in not mandatory vaccination. Some would argue that vaccines will be mandatory for travel. I don’t need to travel.

#36 looking up on 12.11.20 at 4:31 pm

Any recommendations for a good Pref ETF?

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 4:31 pm

@#25 Jay Zee

“You can bet that MP’s and families will get ‘front of the line’ access to the vaccine.”

++++

God forbid we have to run the country without the latest batch…..The budget might be balanced and China’s Embassy in Ottawa sent packing

#38 espressobob on 12.11.20 at 4:35 pm

ZPR CPD, and XPF are major players in the world of preffered equity. Rate resets and perpetuals maybe a few floaters.

Admittedly this one tough area of investing.

While my position in them was from profit taken through rebalancing I rolled them over earlier this year into common stock indices. Along with cash it worked out just fine. Quite profitable.

The process has started over again lately due to upside Mr market provided. ZPR and CPD are looking good.

Nothing is sacred in my portfolio.

#39 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 12.11.20 at 4:38 pm

Gee, I have to admit when I saw Fraud as the title for yesterdays post it was in reference to the 174,384 absentee ballots in Wane County Michigan without a trace to a registered voter. Oh well, It does not really matter.

Trump lost. Suck it up. – Garth

#40 Dolce Vita on 12.11.20 at 4:39 pm

Canada VIRUS PORN…for once and finally.

1. Cdn National News Networks all abuzz about the “30 secret” Cdn locations where the Pfizer vaccine will be shipped to and distributed from.

-forgetting that the Cdn Military in charge of distribution, wise to Cdn insurrection, burning of distribution centers, etc. will probably have tanks, armed soldiers standing outside, machine gun nests, snipers atop adjacent buildings, khaki colored helicopters circling above with rocket pods on them, etc. ad nauseum…nearby. Not to mention UPS vans with an entourage 1/2 km ahead and behind.

——————–

Ya, “secret”.

2. Or if our Cdn Military very good at disguises, then on 1 of the National Networks a story about a Dry Ice business start-up doing “brisk” business as of late.

-Blue large rectangular, tallish containers, frost on the outside, delivery trucks…follow one of them to one of the “secret” locations (a.k.a., shooting our poor well meaning Military in the proverbial foot courtesy a National News network).

You have to love the deer in headlights well meaning Cdn MSM. Like kids in a candy shop for the 1st time, wide eyed and in anticipation.

——————–

Sorry Garth, but I could not resist.

#41 AGuyInVancouver on 12.11.20 at 4:45 pm

Why did Alex bother to apply and waste the government’s time if he had no intention of cashing the cheques?

#42 Unpreferred shares on 12.11.20 at 4:50 pm

#1 Prussian blue on 12.11.20 at 2:01 pm
Thank you for the blog and advise.
Picking your brain and any readers out there: any suggestions for preferred ETF?
________________________________________

Well, that would depend on how quickly you would like to lose your money?
Painstakingly slowly over several years … or faster than the rate of inflation?
The choice is yours … make the right one!
Now slap yourself for asking such a silly question … then do some research!

P.S. Don’t publish them? … then I will. It’s probably better coming from you anyway!

#43 Jake on 12.11.20 at 4:53 pm

#36 looking up
Any recommendations for a good Pref ETF?

CPD and XPF were steals back in the Spring but almost back to normal now. Every few years/decade a golden opportunity presents itself, just buy the good stuff in the storm and hold.

#44 OK, Doomer on 12.11.20 at 4:54 pm

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 3:47 pm
Hmmm

71,000,000 infected worldwide.
301,000 now dead in the US…increasing by 2-3000 per day possibly 500,000 dead by Inauguration Day?

Maybe when the people that were cheering Trump on at his rally’s start seeing their friends and family dropping like flies….they’ll finally clue in.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Pathetic LoserThink. All you’re doing is assuming that someone else would have done something different and better at the time. Destructive, evil and divisive thinking. Is that the kind of person you really want to be?

If you were in charge, I’m deaths would have been in the tens of millions.

See? I can play that game too. The difference is that I don’t really mean it. I hope you really don’t either.

#45 looking up on 12.11.20 at 4:57 pm

#38 espressobob on 12.11.20 at 4:35 pm
ZPR CPD, and XPF are major players in the world of preffered equity. Rate resets and perpetuals maybe a few floaters.

Admittedly this one tough area of investing.

While my position in them was from profit taken through rebalancing I rolled them over earlier this year into common stock indices. Along with cash it worked out just fine. Quite profitable.

The process has started over again lately due to upside Mr market provided. ZPR and CPD are looking good.

Nothing is sacred in my portfolio.

——–

Funny recommending preferred etf’s for the fixed income portion of a portfolio. They seem pretty volatile during a downturn.

#46 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.11.20 at 5:01 pm

#9 Diamond Dog on 12.11.20 at 2:54 pm
Well said Garth. Angus Reid found only 23% were fussed? That means the percentage of financial illiteracy is only 77%! We’ve got our work cut out for us. :/
———
Jumping to conclusions, much.
70 percent of Canadians say the virus is their main concern, right now.
That means the percentage of Canadians who have no empathy is only 30%.

#47 Drunk citizen on 12.11.20 at 5:10 pm

In a way you are right, Garth, in another way your view seems naive to me.
You are saying the economy will be back and that will cause rates to go up. The government can always create another market scare or arrange for some sort of crisis just to push rates back to zero. It seems to me the only thing that can stop this is stagflation, it will put the people in charge in a situation where a crisis is already there and the rates can’t be pushed lower because people can no longer afford their food and are ready to pick up the pitchforks.
What am I missing?

#48 Dolce Vita on 12.11.20 at 5:11 pm

#28 Flop…

Option 4 [read Option 2]

…and I will gladly do it for the Real Flop.

Add some “in the know” kangaroo, koala, Tasmanian Devil prose to your Comments and/or bitch about RE with your usual facts and verificable public domain numbers…so we’ll know it’s you.

Still read your stuff Flop. Over and out, buonasera d’Italia.

#49 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.11.20 at 5:13 pm

Swedens ICU usage is 99%.
The poster boy of just “letting it rip” is paying a heavy price.
We won’t have an economy until this thing is beaten.

#50 espressobob on 12.11.20 at 5:14 pm

#45 looking up

Think of bonds and prefs being interest rate sensitive. With current interest rate levels one has to wonder which particular area of fixed income one should invest with the most likely possibility of upside?

Would an investor go with long bonds and perpetuals right about now?

As rates rise, bonds fall. Be wary. – Garth

#51 Adam Smith on 12.11.20 at 5:17 pm

@ #2 Catalyst

“Why is everything they touch so messed up, just get out of the way and let the free market optimize.”

Carbon is literally the best example of where the market cannot optimize if there is no carbon tax. The whole point of a carbon tax is to stop it from being an externality inflicted on others without recourse.

#52 Doug t on 12.11.20 at 5:27 pm

2020 has been a zinger for sure – what worries me is what the next 5 years will bring – T2 and gang are dragging this country into the abyss – the U.S. and China are starting to worry me as China wants to oust the yanks as the #1 global superpower – the wealth gap between the haves and have-nots grows ever larger – AI is looking more and more ominous as it seeps into the fabric of society – just hope the mother ship arrives in time to save us from ourselves

#53 Peter Courtney on 12.11.20 at 5:28 pm

Hi Garth, be careful who you vote for? Just who do you suggest I vote for? It seems your mo is to diss evert political party. I have yet to hear just who the hell you support. It seems like you dislike every party.

#54 Sara on 12.11.20 at 5:30 pm

Regarding preferred ETFs, the only one I have is DXP in which I am currently a bit over-weighted because I bought in when the price was highish (though didn’t realize that at the time) and then tried to make up for it by buying more when it was low. When it hits $20 I will break even. Almost there.

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 5:31 pm

@#44 OK Doomer
“See? I can play that game too. The difference is that I don’t really mean it. I hope you really don’t either.”
+++
“mean it?”
Nah, I just dont bury my head in the sand.

Apparently statistical facts are too much for you?

Fact:
Trump denigrated Covid concerns and warnings at every opportunity.

Fact:
He encouraged people to go maskless at his rallys.

Fact:
Covid is EXPLODING in the US.

Fact :
301,000 dead.

Fact 2-3,000 dying every day in the US.

Fact:
At these current levels at LEAST 500,000 in the USA will be dead by Jan 20th

Fact:
Attending rally’s without masks increased infection rates.

Fact:
Republican Rallys were super spreader sites.

Sometimes the truth hurts.
Sometimes it even kills.

#56 KG on 12.11.20 at 5:32 pm

Would it not make sense to allow small retailers to sell non-essentials and big box to only sell essentials? This way the people could be spread out instead of everyone crowding big box stores.

#57 looking up on 12.11.20 at 5:35 pm

#43 Jake on 12.11.20 at 4:53 pm
#36 looking up
Any recommendations for a good Pref ETF?

CPD and XPF were steals back in the Spring but almost back to normal now. Every few years/decade a golden opportunity presents itself, just buy the good stuff in the storm and hold.

——-

Every thing was a bargain back in the spring and I loaded up on equity ETF’s and some REITS.

Forgive my ignorance as I don’t know much about preferred Share ETF’s, but what’s the advantage of buying those as opposed to REITS or equity ETF’s? They don’t seem to provide any additional protection in a downturn.

Is it because the yield is higher? But then again REITS have a great yield.

#58 KG on 12.11.20 at 5:36 pm

Getting back to normal?

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/this-is-why-you-will-still-need-to-wear-a-mask-after-being-vaccinated-1.5222206

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 5:44 pm

Doomer,
Perhaps you should look at the title of todays blog title….

Reality.

Trump rallys super spreaders.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/31/coronavirus-trump-campaign-rallies-led-to-30000-cases-stanford-researchers-say.html

Death tolls reach 3000 per day

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa/u-s-readies-vaccine-rollout-with-deaths-rising-by-3000-per-day-idUSKBN28L1NH

Oct 23 prediction Half a Million deaths in the US by Feb 1st

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/23/coronavirus-half-a-million-deaths-study-forecasts

When Trump is forced to step down as President and the legions of Lawyers can finally go after him……
Just wait for the Class Action lawsuit of 500,000 dead Americans….
Bankruptcy is too good for that family of grifters.

#60 Faron on 12.11.20 at 5:48 pm

#19 greyhound on 12.11.20 at 3:17 pm

That’s the gamma squeeze!

If you think the options mania will end in tears, you can always take those entertainment/popcorn bux and buy some cheapo long dated puts… Shoot, why stop there? Sell calls to generate the bux for the put buying. What could possibly go wrong?

#61 Flop... on 12.11.20 at 5:59 pm

Have I got a real estate post in me?

I did one a couple of weeks agog do straight away a pumper was on me.

You know what the main problem is with pumpers on forums?

It’s never enough.

You say the market in your area is up 15%, they say it’s up 20%, most of the time providing no evidence.

Just be realistic.

Last time I said there is no love at the bottom of the market for detached property in Vancouver proper.

There has been an uptick in interest and therefore prices in the move-in 1.3-1.5 range, most likely because of condo owners with some equity built up making the switch.

Have seen no evidence of people selling turn key condos and getting in bidding wars for anything around the same price as, say, their two bedroom condo, straight switch, just haven’t seen it.

Last time I did a real estate post I mentioned a place on Buscombe St, it has since sold, let’s examine what happened.

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2517885/8138-BUSCOMBE-STREET-Vancouver-BC/[email protected]

They wanted 999k for a while, when the market spoke they listened, took 10k off just to show they were for real.

New listing price 988k, 12 days later they accepted a bid for 950k.

This wasn’t even a dump, totally livable but the condo move-over people are going to swap their view for some East Vancouver beater money pit.

This is at the bottom rung on the detached ladder in Vancouver proper.

Does that sound like a hot market?

No, what is happening in Vancouver real estate is simply a re-arrangement of the furniture…

M46BC

#62 GRG on 12.11.20 at 6:04 pm

We are putting a lot on these rapidly developed vaccines.

One of the risks we are not hearing anything about is what happens if this virulent little bug sticks around for a while longer because the vaccines prove less effective, too many have unacceptable side effects/reactions, or something similar.

At this point that’s a possibility that none of us want to contemplate. But an additional 6 or 12 months of COVID 19, beyond current expectations, would blow the budgets and wipe out even more of what’s left of our economy. I don’t see a Plan B being articulated.

#63 Diamond Dog on 12.11.20 at 6:09 pm

#29 Dolce Vita on 12.11.20 at 3:57 pm

Hey DV, did you read my #111 from yesterday by chance? So readers follow, Scott Gottlieb said on Monday that there is drift (antigenic drift) meaning the vaccine will need to be updated every 2 to 3 years. By update, one could extrapolate that the vaccine itself is only good for 2 to 3 years. Regardless of whether it didn’t come out in a formal news release or how one interprets it, there is drift and drift means the vaccine’s effectiveness will fade over time (to be determined).

If there is efficacy fade and drift suggests there will be, and “if” the vaccine is only good for 2 to 3 years, then the best time to get a vaccine would be in the fall just before flu season to give you reasonable protection that would last for 30 months. That protection will fade something like a straight line that drops from going sideways after a few months, looking something like 75 to 45% efficacy after 2 years and 38% coming out of the end of the third flu season.

Point is, it will likely matter the time of year one gets vaccinated. This is all conjecture at this juncture, but it gives us something to put in our pipes to smoke until the FDA/market indicates something more conclusive.

#64 binky barnes on 12.11.20 at 6:09 pm

Don’t worry everybody, the big man (Mr. Justin Trudeau) has this all worked out. Nothing is more important to him than the economic well-being of this country. Nothing.

BB

#65 Kato on 12.11.20 at 6:13 pm

#53 Peter Courtney on 12.11.20 at 5:28 pm
Hi Garth, be careful who you vote for? Just who do you suggest I vote for? It seems your mo is to diss evert political party. I have yet to hear just who the hell you support. It seems like you dislike every party.
____________________

With all respect to our mustachioed host, the problem with political parties is that they are full of politicians.

#66 espressobob on 12.11.20 at 6:25 pm

The days of GICs or any government bonds paying a decent yield are long gone.

The safe stuff in my portfolio remains in cash along with a small position in prefs.

As a contrarian I’ve come to realize the importance of having loads of ammunition when opportunity calls and is the best weapon at my disposal.

Best to go for the jugular.

#67 Diamond Dog on 12.11.20 at 6:26 pm

#51 Adam Smith on 12.11.20 at 5:17 pm

Well said. That being said, the way the money is being spent is doing nothing to change the behavior of the general public with spending outside of making conventional energy more expensive compared to green energy that still hasn’t arrived yet. That money being collected from a carbon tax, one would think, would be wiser spent right back into the energy sector in technology reducing it’s oil refining carbon foot print to zero emissions, no easy feat considering to do so you would have to either capture C02 out of refinery stacks directly or use an alternative heat source from natural gas.

Which ever way Canada chooses (give the tax collected back to the people, give it to the oil industry earmarked toward refining to zero emissions or don’t collect and/or give it to anyone), we need results and they won’t come without some kind of plan toward zero emissions in the way oil and gas is produced, refined and consumed.

#68 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.11.20 at 6:27 pm

#25 Jimmy Zhao on 12.11.20 at 3:48 pm

Members of Parliament, their staff and families have access to a private testing clinic for COVID-19.

You can bet that MP’s and families will get ‘front of the line’ access to the vaccine.

—————–

They may have access, but will they take it?

I heard Justim Trudeau’s brother on the radio yesterday saying he’s not taking the vaccine. Host called him an anti-vaxxer to which he retorted something along the lines of “I’m anti-stupid-decision”. He went on to say that “fear is an illusion but danger (of the vaccine) is real”, while lamenting that it’s assinine to vaccinate the entire planet with an experimental vaccine with no long term data of side effects.

That’s Justin Trudeau’s own brother. I was shocked.

#69 zoey on 12.11.20 at 6:27 pm

Laughing at U.S markets. They tank if their expected stimulus bill stalled , like crying babaies. The markets are like an addict in need of a fix, ya thats healthy.

#70 Sara on 12.11.20 at 6:29 pm

@CEF

It is interesting to watch your change of thought process from someone at the beginning of the pandemic who laughed it all off, writing dumb comments about licking and coughing everywhere, to where you are now. Good for you for coming around to reality.

#71 joelson on 12.11.20 at 6:31 pm

Garth.
A guy walks up to and say’s “I got a 12k dollar cheque hanging out my bathroom wall, what sector do I gamble it on for for the first Q of 2021”

Shoot it from the hips garth

#72 Faron on 12.11.20 at 6:38 pm

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 5:31 pm

@#44 OK Doomer

Best part about your list fartzy is that the Trumpettes really seem to take pride in their personal responsibility… Maybe YOLO MAGA is more important…

#73 Nonplused on 12.11.20 at 6:43 pm

“In fact the feds have plans to spend another $100 billion on re-engineering the economy (whatever that means) in the immediate post-Covid years.”

As an engineer myself, I protest the use of the word “engineering” when referring to the economy (or politics). “Engineering” belongs to the group of studies known as the “hard sciences”, whereas economics and politics is more like a bunch of clowns seeing how many of them can fit in Volkswagen Beetle.

#74 Garth's Son Drake on 12.11.20 at 6:46 pm

Garth, it is not just CERB, which I saw on CTV showing how recipients have been told to pay back in full by month end. It is like getting a massive HELOC and having the the hook pulled as a demand loan.

But now I am getting feedback that the recover benefits tightening up and they are asking for things like what your business is and a explanation on operations. I mean it goes to show you that everyone and their dog on these benefits. The gov has to have some sense how dire this is.

So, first the feds throw money into a Tornado and are now tracking down the money after the most desperate people have taken it and used it to basically stay afloat? Watch this recovery go sideways starting right now. Like a light switch going off on the spending taps.

The whole market is the FED. Watch what happens when this money goes away. People don’t realize how close to the edge Canadians are and eventually the collapse on main street will catch up to equities and be expedited as the gov tries to rein in spending.

#75 theoryAndPractice on 12.11.20 at 6:49 pm

#34 Diamond Dog on 12.11.20 at 4:27 pm

Thanks for the link !

#76 Peter Schiff on 12.11.20 at 6:49 pm

How do you know that Trump lost?

#77 Faron on 12.11.20 at 6:52 pm

In millennial speak, 2020 be like:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1337444215215841283

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 6:52 pm

@#61 Flop is BACK!
“This wasn’t even a dump, totally livable but the condo move-over people are going to swap their view for some East Vancouver beater money pit.”
++++

The scary version?
People are willing to pay over 1 million dollars for a beater money pit ….
The market is still too high and the only thing that will bring reality back is higher interest rates, defaults, rising unemployment, punitive vacant taxe, punative property taxes, etc etc etc.

#79 Nonplused on 12.11.20 at 6:55 pm

#4 Alex on 12.11.20 at 2:29 pm
@#2

Wow, 2021 almost and people still mad at the Carbon Tax? Grow up! What is your perfect suggestion instead of it? Do you even know the concept? You will get most of that money back, the aim is at reducing carbon emissions by inciting better behaviour.
Litterally, what is wrong with that?

————————–

In one of the most spread out countries in the world, what, besides gasoline, are we expected to use to get around? Electric cars sound cool but they don’t work when it is -40. And lithium mining is worse than oil spills for the environment. Plus nobody’s figured out how to charge all the planned electric cars just yet. Gotta get the electricity from somewhere so don’t mothball those coal plants just yet.

Anyway it is just a tax. It isn’t designed to save the environment or change behavior because energy is essential to everything in the economy, so the gasoline will be burned because otherwise the groceries can’t get to the grocery store. It’s just a tax for the sake of a tax. It might cause a few people to buy smaller cars but I think they were working pretty hard on efficiency already.

#80 Peter Schiff on 12.11.20 at 6:56 pm

Whoops. I guess it really is over.

Supreme Court Tosses Texas Bid To Overturn Election.

The Supreme Court on Friday tossed a last-minute bid by the state of Texas to overturn the 2020 election by challenging the results of four battleground states.

A little behind on the news today. That pretty much erases all doubts about incoming Biden being new president.

#81 GrumpyPanda on 12.11.20 at 6:59 pm

People didn’t like seat belts when introduced. Uncomfortable and optional. Extra $$. Some worried about getting trapped in burning vehicles. Others thought weren’t very manly and unneeded because they were careful drivers. Pro racers and pilots loved them. Strange. Same thing with doctors and masks.

#82 Sydneysider on 12.11.20 at 7:00 pm

There is a golden thread that connects, through time and space, mediocre high school science teaching to Canada’s technological response to the pandemic. The inability to produce a local vaccine stands out.

That is my insight, just after looking at some notes provided by my daughter’s science teacher. I also see that there will be less, not more, money in the kitty for science teaching in future.

#83 Nonplused on 12.11.20 at 7:04 pm

#21 Overheardyou on 12.11.20 at 3:33 pm
“I really wonder why Basic Economics is not a mandatory course in the education curriculum.”

—————————

Because it is all voodoo. Also they wouldn’t be able to agree on what to teach. How does that phrase go; “Ask 3 economists a question and you’ll get 4 opinions”.

Or the other pertinent phrase; “The first rule of economics is that there is no such thing as a free lunch. The first rule of politics is to ignore the first rule of economics.”

#84 Blof Witzer The Stitatation Closet on 12.11.20 at 7:09 pm

You didn’t even mention his announcement today to barge ahead with this carbon tax raising it to $170 a ton. Great idea, let’s raise the cost of everything, which it will. Decimate whatever has been left barely hanging on and destroy any thought of being competitive at anything with any other country. Five times as arrogant as his father and not even one quarter as smart.

How many doses of vaccine did they contract for about four times the population or something like that? Do the contracts say we pay as long as they are cleared by regulatory bodies? We have no idea how bad it could get because so much has been kept secret. What we do know is cause for serious concern though.

#85 45north on 12.11.20 at 7:11 pm

Alex

Wow, 2021 almost and people still mad at the Carbon Tax? Grow up! What is your perfect suggestion instead of it? Do you even know the concept? You will get most of that money back, the aim is at reducing carbon emissions by inciting better behaviour.
Litterally, what is wrong with that?

you will get most of that money back. If you file your income tax. There’s a class of people that don’t.

On March 9, I attended a City of Ottawa presentation on climate change. I left convinced that the goals were unrealistic, impossible. The next day, the answer presented itself! Shutdown the schools and lay off all kinds of people. We dramatically reduced our emissions. So as far as climate change, what have we achieved? Are we half way there? Not even close.

Increased carbon dioxide is having an effect on climate. Of course it is but what if energy from the sun is decreasing? 22,000 years ago Canada was covered by glaciers. All of it except for a bit of the Yukon. It could be that increased carbon dioxide balances the decrease in solar radiation. Nobody knows. Even if it exactly balances, there is still is going to be climate change. Northern regions would warm up – which they are. And Canada would not be covered in glaciers – which it isn’t.

We have to have a more realistic goal. Something we can actually do. Like keep CO2 emissions where they are.

#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.11.20 at 7:14 pm

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 3:49 pm
@#21 Over Heard
“I really wonder why Basic Economics is not a mandatory course in the education curriculum.”
++++
At least it should be mandatory at Prime Minister’s pre-school.
————
I’m all in favor of teaching the dismal science in schools.
Providing that they don’t just teach -Adam Smith’s and Milton Friedman’s versions that you obviously fancy.
Behavioral Economics is what I’d suggest.

#87 Camille on 12.11.20 at 7:15 pm

Thank you for the most excellent post. Increasing interest rates to combat inflation (when it comes) will definitely be required. Hopefully it will not push the economy into a recession (if we are not in one). I’ve also noticed a definite rise in rates lately, hopefully it will reverse the 40 year decline in rates. But who knows for sure right (mortgage brokers and analysts – no disrespect, are entitled to their opinion).

I’m hearing a lot that the optimum AA is 25% cash (short term corporates can go here as long as they don’t default), 25% gold (REIT, bitcoin, EM debt can go here, and you only need 1/4 of that – gold and bitcoin are risky stuff and don’t pay shite), 25% treasury bonds + utilities, TIPS here too but they’re obviously candidates for the gold column – could be useful if things go wrong and cutting rates from 50 to 0 basis points doesn’t do the trick, and 25% stocks (put a portion of your preferred shares in the cash column – they’re obligated to pay).

#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.11.20 at 7:18 pm

Some people look at the debt clock.
I look at the death clock.
Different priorities, I guess.

#89 DON on 12.11.20 at 7:22 pm

‘We both stand silently still
In the empty of the downtown core
Although we disagree on ideology
We watch them kick the can so far

Was it something I said or the virus did
Though I tried not to hurt you
Though I tried to bring reason to you
But I guess that’s why they say

Every rose has its thorn
Just like every, dole$ has a tax for you
Just like every, Gen sings a sad sad song
Every virus has its cost’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-pEep3tnFs

#90 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 12.11.20 at 7:30 pm

The reality and scope of fiscal problems are hitting the City of London, ON with a 3.5% hike in property tax for 2021; combined with the added increase spending of $700 annual food bill per family; and the Trudeau Carbon Tax Hike all combined will fuel a cranky tone in the Wonderland of Southwestern Ontario.

#91 TurnerNation on 12.11.20 at 7:31 pm

UBI anyone? This has been described as the economic 9/11 going on. ‘How late how long’
Of course it’s on an 11th…today.

Alphonse Kehaulic nailed it. All those ’28 days’ – he said were, 2, and infinity symbol (8). “To Infinity”. Indeed.
..
NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo again targets hospitality industry, bans indoor dining in New York City indefinitely. There is no reopening timeline.
1:51 PM · Dec 11, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

——
I am begging those with non-essential beards and moustaches to shave them off. Do you part to Prevent the Spread!!! ;-)

#92 MF on 12.11.20 at 7:33 pm

#28 Flop… on 12.11.20 at 3:55 pm

“Option three… MF giving you s lecture on why Toronto is the best city on the planet…”

-I prefer the term “educating” but lecturing works too!

MF

#93 David Pylyp on 12.11.20 at 7:41 pm

national debt will have doubled by the time this is over, and stand at an incredible $1.4 trillion. In a country where the entire economy’s only $2 trillion in size, that is daunting. Besides, family debt now exceeds $2 trillion – so add that in. (The household debt ratio just soared to 170% of income.) And did I mention the provinces? No? Well, they owe another $700 billion – half of it Ontario alone.

Be careful who you vote for….. nothing is free

The sadness of our debt overwhelms me.

David Pylyp
Toronto

#94 Ustabe on 12.11.20 at 7:42 pm

#41 AGuyInVancouver on 12.11.20 at 4:45 pm

Why did Alex bother to apply and waste the government’s time if he had no intention of cashing the cheques?

Sticking it to the Liberals I suppose?

Just another reason on a long list of why the CPC will not be forming a federal government anytime soon.

People, I suspect that Garth and I are two of very few folks on this blog who have pay stubs from any version of the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada and I also suspect both he and I will tell you that stunts don’t get you elected. You have to do the work, the heavy lifting, the boots on the ground, non-glamorous stuff.

Like maybe someone tell the Thumb Man it was Harper who invited the Chinese Army to train with ours. Blaming (or trying to blame) the current Liberals is a stunt.

Allow me to repeat, stunts don’t get you elected.

#95 baloney Sandwitch on 12.11.20 at 7:50 pm

Debt & Taxes. I guess the Canadian government over-reacted to the virus, while some countries like the US & Brazil underreaacted. I think I estimated the cost of saving one life, $28 million. Is it worth it? I think we overpaid. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YAuoNg7z-tCdTKbCuRF533vQx5ZVR4Y7KVzNLxvVRtg/edit#gid=0

#96 Flop... on 12.11.20 at 7:52 pm

Vancouver real estate is very slowly snowballing downhill.

The decapitation of the snowman happened in the summer of 2016.

Just because realtors stick a carrot, a couple of buttons, and a friendly face on it, to try and slow it down doesn’t change the situation…

M46BC

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 7:53 pm

#@70 sara
“It is interesting to watch your change of thought process from someone at the beginning of the pandemic who laughed it all off, writing dumb comments about licking and coughing everywhere, to where you are now. ‘

“””””
Really?
I must be getting alzheimers.

Please provide some examples of my “devil may care” braggadocio.
I’m too lazy to go back and look.

#98 Roial1 on 12.11.20 at 8:01 pm

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 2:40 pm

@#2 Catalyst
“T2 released his new carbon tax regime and will soak you at the pumps for 37cents a litre by 2030. ”

++++

I would expect nothing else from the “spend then tax” Liberals.

Prepare for the tax wave Millennial’s, or be drowned by it…….
———————————————————

You know, Frankly I don’t give-a-damn about gas tax. It may add some to our cost of living, BUT!
It will beat the hell out of EXTINCTION.
That’s what WILL happen to ALL of our decedents if we do not stop using gasoline.

Okay all you deniers FIELD DAY!

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 8:02 pm

@#86 Ponzie Profits
“Behavioral Economics is what I’d suggest.”

+++++
BLECH!

My god Most economists are so “out there” even other economists usually take 25 years to understand their mathematical theorems.
And Nobel prizes are 40 years down the road……

And you want to toss icky, smelly, real life behavioral problems into the mathematical mix?
Good luck.
Behavioral Science?
Fascinating.
The book “Blink” by Malcom Gladwell has some great examples of human behavior explained or at least studied and theorized upon…

#100 Thomas on 12.11.20 at 8:08 pm

I only buy distressed assets.
This week is the US Dollar.

No, I don’t beleive the US will come out with a huge stimulus bill. In spite of the doom and gloom, their democracy still works, beter than Canada’s, anyway.

#101 Sara on 12.11.20 at 8:10 pm

CEF, Doesn’t surprise me that you deny writing them. I would be embarrassed as well.

#102 Sara on 12.11.20 at 8:17 pm

#80 Peter Schiff on 12.11.20 at 6:56 pm
Whoops. I guess it really is over.

Supreme Court Tosses Texas Bid To Overturn Election.

The Supreme Court on Friday tossed a last-minute bid by the state of Texas to overturn the 2020 election by challenging the results of four battleground states.

A little behind on the news today. That pretty much erases all doubts about incoming Biden being new president.

===================

Was there ever really any doubt? It was great to hear confirmation tonight that the lawsuit is going nowhere, like all the rest (save one inconsequential one). I’ll try hard to bite my tongue and not bring it up to my one relative who was all excited last weekend when he heard about the BIG GAME CHANGING lawsuit. LOL. No doubt he is drowning his sorrows while watching NEWSMAX.

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 8:22 pm

@#88 Ponzie’s Plot
“Some people look at the debt clock.
I look at the death clock.
Different priorities, I guess.”
++++
Priorities?
Nah.
Yer just morbid.

#104 the Jaguar on 12.11.20 at 8:24 pm

@#143 IHCTD9 on 12.11.20 at 10:05 am

To respond to your query, in fact he did. A perfect specimen in all respects. But let me tell you how it works. I’m talking about charisma. It’s all about the projection of competence and confidence. His attentiveness to his uniform and the way his attention was focused on his flight gear. He safeguarded those flight bags as if the Tiffany Diamond was inside one of them. The natural modesty he conveyed, and especially his very serious demeanor.
This is a type of Kryptonite. It’s irresistible.

Anyway, to stay on topic I hope their are repercussions for those who took CERB money fraudulently. Sock it to them, CRA. With my full blessing.

#105 the Jaguar on 12.11.20 at 8:25 pm

that was meant to be “there are” repercussions..etc. Damn I need to proof read!

#106 Drill Baby Drill on 12.11.20 at 8:28 pm

Hey how did this dog blog get my wedding photo?

#107 Long-Time Lurker on 12.11.20 at 8:31 pm

Zoolander 3. Script Update.

Location: Looking out the window of the Prime Minister’s Office at the heavy snowfall.

Prime Minister Zoolander: “We’re progressively increasing the carbon tax till 2031.”

Chrystia Peron: “Why? To pay for our half-a-trillion dollar deficit? Did Karl tell you to? Why do you listen to that egghead?”

Zoolander: “Everyone knows why. Carbon is bad for the planet.”

Peron: “But plants are made of carbon and animals that eat plants are also made of carbon. Humans breathe out carbon dioxide with every breath.”

Zoolander: “The science is clear. The scientists agree that carbon dioxide is warming the planet.”

Peron: “I, for one, would like a warmer winter in Canada.” She looks out the window at the barely visible frozen landscape.

Zoolander: “No, no, no! The polar icecaps will melt and all the coastal areas will be flooded! Global warming to suicidal levels is unstoppable unless we act now! Geeta told me!”

Peron: “But the cold, uninhabitable polar lands will become more inhabitable and more people can live there.”

Zoolander: “Clearly, carbon is evil and we must eliminate it. Carbon’s a sin. That’s the new religion.”

Peron: “Clearly based on science?”

Zoolander: “Yes. Politicized scientific dogma says so.”

#108 Where's My Money Going Greedeau? on 12.11.20 at 8:36 pm

So the Feds/RCMP are running scared of the Cullen Commission….some dirt in those “clean” quarters?

B.C. money-laundering commissioner rebukes Ottawa for failing to provide important records

https://globalnews.ca/news/7514425/cullen-commission-interim-report-money-laundering/

Former BC Liberal minister and RCMP caused ‘tsunami’ of casino money laundering, inquiry hears

https://globalnews.ca/news/7493127/fred-pinnock-recordings-tsunami-cullen-commission/

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 8:40 pm

Bwahahahaha

The man’s megalomania knows no bounds…

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/trump-files-motion-to-appear-in-person-to-support-texas-bid-to-undo-election-loss-at-supreme-court

Only HE can convince the Supreme Court he won…..

What an embarrassment…..but Grifters will say and do anything to stay out of jail…….

#110 Nonplused on 12.11.20 at 8:50 pm

“Trump lost. Suck it up. – Garth”

Still before SCOTUS. The Texas case will be interesting because they are arguing their constitutional rights were violated. But regardless Biden will be president on Jan. 20th. The next election will be run different though, no late night ballot spikes.

Not any more. – Garth

#111 Paul on 12.11.20 at 8:52 pm

#53 Peter Courtney on 12.11.20 at 5:28 pm
Hi Garth, be careful who you vote for? Just who do you suggest I vote for? It seems your mo is to diss evert political party. I have yet to hear just who the hell you support. It seems like you dislike every party.
____________________

With all respect to our mustachioed host, the problem with political parties is that they are full of politicians.

_________

Mr. Keto,

Can you suggest a better alternative?

#112 Chris Hampton on 12.11.20 at 9:02 pm

I don’t know why nobody is talking about what happened to Riocan REIT last week. It cut it’s monthly distribution payout from 12 cents to 8 cents per unit.

My uncle was shocked they cut that much. He thought if a cut was coming max 10% to 12% cut. Now, his 15,000 units used to get $1,800 a month now being cut to $1,200 a month.

Well, to add insult to injury, he paid $26.75 per unit about a year ago and now it is $17.36 per unit closing price today. He is down more than 35% or $140,838 in just less than 1 year. It has recovered from about $14.50 per unit low earlier this year 2020 but is still way down in price.

It is in 80% in RRSP, 20% in TFSA, 30% in non-registered money. It is a good thing he has another $1,125,000 in several 10 year OSB’s, bank, credit union 5, 7, 10 year 2.85%, 3.35%, 3.75%, 3.5%, 2.70% GIC’s bought in 2018, 2019, 2020 CDIC, DICO covered and his CPP, OAS which is $1,560 a month and small LIRA $5,125 annual payments too.

It looks like REIT’s are not that stable as shown it was recommended as possible replacement for GIC’s, savings bonds, fixed income investments to him but this REIT income distribution just dropped from 5.39% to 3.59%. It will be cut for sure again looking at the way things are going.

He also lost 35.10% of his capital, investment which is a big drop in less than 1 year. I guess he has to learn a lesson for this one. It could of been worse if he put moire in that. He should not of put more than 10% in one REIT I guess.

#113 Paul on 12.11.20 at 9:06 pm

109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 8:40 pm
Bwahahahaha

The man’s megalomania knows no bounds…

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/trump-files-motion-to-appear-in-person-to-support-texas-bid-to-undo-election-loss-at-supreme-court

Only HE can convince the Supreme Court he won…..

What an embarrassment…..but Grifters will say and do anything to stay out of jail…….

__________

Well, this was settled an hour or so ago with a contemptuous statement of the validity of the Texas Attorney General’s challenge. A 7-2 win on a Conservative Court is a win for democracy.

#114 Moses71 on 12.11.20 at 9:10 pm

Yay Alberta Health Services contacted the home I manage asking for staff/resident numbers so they can send us vaccines pronto. It’s called progress. Love how quick we’re moving on this. And spending Xmas with my older “friends”, as they call me, as Xmas is cancelled so I’m in this with them.
Lights at the end of the tunnel.
And the Millennials may look forward to a long life of a tax they may as well “Covid Tax”? Just call it what it is

#115 Chris Hampton on 12.11.20 at 9:10 pm

Sorry, made a mistake, 30% is not in non-registered money. My uncle never owned a REIT in non-registered money. The 30% was what was recommended to him but he put the lesser 26% at the time of all his total investments.

#116 Nonplused on 12.11.20 at 9:13 pm

#51 Adam Smith on 12.11.20 at 5:17 pm
@ #2 Catalyst

“Why is everything they touch so messed up, just get out of the way and let the free market optimize.”

Carbon is literally the best example of where the market cannot optimize if there is no carbon tax. The whole point of a carbon tax is to stop it from being an externality inflicted on others without recourse.

—————————————

So, you use no carbon? Me thinks you do.

Carbon is one of those things that is ubiquitous and we are all equally guilty. It is also one of these things that we cannot do much about in the short term. Therefore it is just a tax. They could raise the HST and it would have the same affect.

#117 mike from mtl on 12.11.20 at 9:17 pm

#98 Roial1 on 12.11.20 at 8:01 pm
..You know, Frankly I don’t give-a-damn about gas tax. It may add some to our cost of living, BUT!
It will beat the hell out of EXTINCTION.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Hope you’re being sarcastic, ‘carbon’ tax is not going to reduce 1g of emissions. Granted us and the Americans are wasteful and lazy but all considered, the worst offenders (China,India,etc) don’t give a fig or our virtue tax. Let’s face it, we’re all just going to consume and burn until there’s none left.

Real pollution in the first world has been outsourced starting in the 1970s.

Thing is optics: taxes need to go up, sales tax=bad, carbon tax=hey it’s going somewhere – even though it’s not.

#118 El Presidente no more on 12.11.20 at 9:18 pm

Let me tell ya… man oh man do I love losing n losing n losing…. I’m the bestest loser there ever was, believe me!

#119 Sara on 12.11.20 at 9:20 pm

@CEF #109 You’re late to the party. The lawsuit is done.
============
@All
Looking for a good laugh? Have half a brain at least and want to feel smarter?
Check out https://twitter.com/parlertakes

#120 Nonplused on 12.11.20 at 9:27 pm

#110 Nonplused on 12.11.20 at 8:50 pm
“Trump lost. Suck it up. – Garth”

Still before SCOTUS. The Texas case will be interesting because they are arguing their constitutional rights were violated. But regardless Biden will be president on Jan. 20th. The next election will be run different though, no late night ballot spikes.

Not any more. – Garth

——————————-

One of the soccer teams I coached lost a gold medal game because the goon on the other team pushed our goalie into the net before the game winning shot was taken, which our goalie saved but he was in the net. The goal stood and the game was decided. 75 million people think that something similar happened in the US elections as well. Never the less the results will stand because there is no instant replay.

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.11.20 at 9:31 pm

#82 Sydneysider on 12.11.20 at 7:00 pm
There is a golden thread that connects, through time and space, mediocre high school science teaching to Canada’s technological response to the pandemic. The inability to produce a local vaccine stands out.
———-
Yep
My thoughts, too.
Almost none of the most critical medications are made in Canada.
At the beginning of the pandemic, the drug stores were giving people only 30 days instead of the usual 90.
I’ve done some research. Most of our pills are coming from China and India.
Not a good situation, for sure.

#122 Frank Sapier on 12.11.20 at 9:32 pm

Chris Hampton, I know what you mean. I rad several articles in the past about how people with GIC’s, savings bonds, term deposits, higher yield savings accounts, government bonds should buy more higher yielding fixed income and income producing and related real estate investments. This is due to the long decade plus of pushing down interest rates by the central banks.

They recommended high yield or junk bonds, REIT’s, certain types of mortgage funds, higher yield corporate bonds and some income trusts year back. All longer term too 10 to 15 years plus. This is to replace GIC’s, term deposits, savings bonds etc. which are usually maximum 5 year maturities.

TD just had an article recently about this about why people with low interest guaranteed investments should buy these other higher yield not guaranteed fixed income, real estate investments. As we have seen this year it can end and usually does to big drops 20%+. Is it worth it to get an extra 1.75% to 3.00% possible rate, yield a year and lose 10% to 30% or more in a year or two.

#123 SOS on 12.11.20 at 9:59 pm

#70 Sara

CEF jumped on the bandwagon. It’s a survival mechanism.

#124 SOS on 12.11.20 at 10:00 pm

#70 Sara

CEF jumped on the bandwagon. It’s a survival mechanism.

#125 Capt. Serious on 12.11.20 at 10:27 pm

I don’t think we can talk about Canada’s debt without talking about all the other G20 countries, which are also borrowing massively. It’s all relative.

#126 Reality is stark on 12.11.20 at 10:47 pm

Eventually you run out of other people’s money. That is when the socialist love affair ends.
Not that much different from a relationship. Once your money is gone they are gone.
The country props up the real estate market with artificially low rates. The people borrow against the appreciating asset to finance a lifestyle they can’t afford. The pandemic has accelerated precarious employment. The housing market normalizes and the ATM is gone.
They leave immediately as there is no more cash machine.
The early mantra was “let’s share everything” and now it’s “where is your resourcefulness”?
Mediocrity and no accountability. Borrowing your way to prosperity doesn’t work.

#127 willworkforpickles on 12.11.20 at 11:04 pm

The talk about in the US of a modicum of fiscal restraint lately won’t compel bond holders of US debt the likes of China, Russia, Japan and a slew of others from slowly selling US dollars even if some such fiscal restraint were to slow it’s devaluation.
If the stock market were to crash foreign bond holders would buy gold as it drops with US dollars furthering the dollar’s selloff regardless of the perceived temporary boost afforded to bonds/bondholders in this economic climate and before a reversal with renewed US stimulus would come.
Nothing will stop the slow shift away from the dollar and its ultimate upending as the worlds primary reserve currency.

#128 TKwOods on 12.11.20 at 11:09 pm

Back in the early 70’s my mom worked for a big manufacturing company making appliances in Napanee…Emerson …shipped good well made appliances all over the world…free trade landed with a thud in our little town…remember a button someone in made made Free trade? .. .its not free but for folks like my Mom it virtually was for the hot shots who ran the joint…

#129 46and2 on 12.11.20 at 11:19 pm

I am pretty sure that a good portion of the pandemic money sent out by this government will be treated the same as the bailout of the CIBC. Garth…any idea on the size of that sum that “vanished”?

#130 Frosty the Snowperson on 12.11.20 at 11:51 pm

#96 Flop… on 12.11.20 at 7:52 pm

Vancouver real estate is very slowly snowballing downhill.

The decapitation of the snowman happened in the summer of 2016.

Just because realtors stick a carrot, a couple of buttons, and a friendly face on it, to try and slow it down doesn’t change the situation…

M46BC

___________

That wasn’t real estate prices that caused the snowman to lose his head.
That was global warming and that’s why T2 brought in the carbon tax!

#131 Volkswagen Beagle on 12.12.20 at 12:21 am

#73 Nonplused on 12.11.20 at 6:43 pm

“In fact the feds have plans to spend another $100 billion on re-engineering the economy (whatever that means) in the immediate post-Covid years.”

As an engineer myself, I protest the use of the word “engineering” when referring to the economy (or politics). “Engineering” belongs to the group of studies known as the “hard sciences”, whereas economics and politics is more like a bunch of clowns seeing how many of them can fit in Volkswagen Beetle.

_________________

What about the clowns that hang the Volkswagen Beetle from a bridge or a building? What kind of engineers are those ones?

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.macleans.ca/general/i-prank-therefore-i-am/&ved=2ahUKEwigsrPn2MftAhURpZ4KHbmhB14QFjACegQIBBAI&usg=AOvVaw15cpfsGe4HdHzVtBoqekgv

#132 Damifino on 12.12.20 at 1:07 am

External Combustion:
Burn coal, make steam, drive pistons, move machinery.

Internal Combustion:
Burn refined oil directly, drive pistons, move machinery.

Remote Combustion:
Burn coal & natural gas, make steam, spin turbos, generate electricity, transport it long distances, charge batteries, spin magnetic motors, move machinery.

What is the common thread above? Hint: all involve the USA, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Canada. Canada could easily step out. The rest would welcome that.

BTW, solar and wind are not players. They will dine with the Liberals at the kid’s table in 2030.

#133 crossbordershopper on 12.12.20 at 2:41 am

not a big pref fan, the long term chart of zpd and cpd are that they are flat over the long run, like 5 years plus.
since management fees take 10% of the yield(.45 of the 4.5%) is high if you look at it that way.
there is no upside they are all fixed dollar value. par pricing. the yield varies, so floating resets etc are fine, but why take credit risk with the individual issuer(not much of concern because most are banks and insurance and utilities) but interest rate risk. (volatility).is definitely there.
all that for a 4.5% annual yield, yes you get a tax credit, but its been watered down over the last 30 years and will continue to be moving forward.
i dont see the attraction on almost any front.

#134 Faron on 12.12.20 at 3:31 am

#110 Nonplused on 12.11.20 at 8:50 pm

“Trump lost. Suck it up. – Garth”

Still before SCOTUS. The next election will be run different though, no late night ballot spikes

More garbage from you nonplussed. The supreme court threw out two of the sham cases this week with one sentence rejections. One sentence! From the most considered body arguably on this planet.

Oh, no late night ballot spikes? Cool, we’ll just let the counting go on for days and days. And we’ll make sure to announce 5 million votes one… by… one to make your sensitive brains able to follow the action.

And your Benfords law argument is a farce debunked by real mathematicians. You know, professionals, not suburban pundits like yourself.

KEEP YOUR LANE — appliances and boats and MS Windows ‘n stuff. Good boy.

#135 Diamond Dog on 12.12.20 at 5:27 am

#46 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.11.20 at 5:01 pm

Oh, I think most of us can multi task empathy dude.

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.12.20 at 6:01 am

@#101 Sara

Couldnt find anything eh?
I thought so.
:)

#137 Under the radar on 12.12.20 at 6:13 am

Higher rates? Sure so what , most are stress tested to between 4and 5 % . If and when mortgage rates leap higher with inflation then maybe …… a bad storm, until then sunny days for the indebted masses.

#138 earthboundmisfit on 12.12.20 at 6:31 am

I don’t think Ill ever comprehend why people think pref. shares belong on the FI side of the equation. They certainly didn’t provide any cushion against the volatility of last spring. Suggesting “loading up” now strikes me as “market timing” and “chasing yield”, both of which can be recipes for a good fleecing. Think I’ll just stay KISS-ing with XBAL, ZBAL, or VBAL.

#139 maxx on 12.12.20 at 8:30 am

#2 Catalyst on 12.11.20 at 2:22 pm

“Canada is toast. T2 released his new carbon tax regime and will soak you at the pumps for 37cents a litre by 2030.”….

Yes indeed – and suffer those who bought out in the ‘burbs and sticks during COVID-19. This mentality is hilarious. Every time a significant event occurs, so many think that it is a complete game changer, that previous rules no longer apply and they put all of their chips on red or black.

Stupid is as stupid does.

#140 willworkforpickles on 12.12.20 at 9:00 am

Allow me to re-context a line from my previous post to make it more decipherable.
If the stock market were to crash, foreign bond holders would buy gold as it drops (with US dollars) furthering the dollar’s selloff regardless of the perceived temporary boost afforded to bonds/bondholders in this economic climate and before a reversal with renewed US stimulus would come.

#141 willworkforpickles on 12.12.20 at 9:04 am

…and that should read…
If the stock market were to crash, foreign bond holders would buy gold as it drops with the market (and with US dollars) furthering the dollar’s selloff regardless of the perceived temporary boost afforded to bonds/bondholders in this economic climate and before a reversal with renewed US stimulus would come.

#142 Shane Bliss on 12.12.20 at 9:04 am

#57 Looking up.

Prefs fell in line with the BOC artificially dragging down rates. A double whammy . However yields were beefy and constant. Normally the negative correlation works. As rates go up , prefs should increase in price with yields falling. CPR might be 20/30% undervalued. Plus the yield and you’ve got a juicy capital gain. The floor is in as rates won’t go negative now. Good luck. But, caveat, Trudeau could step in and leave another freakonomics mess at any time. Be diversified.

#143 Squire on 12.12.20 at 9:24 am

#76 Peter Schiff on 12.11.20 at 6:49 pm

How do you know that Trump lost?
—————————————–
Because CNN says so – they know everything ;)

SCOTUS just said so. How could you have been so gullible? – Garth

#144 the Jaguar on 12.12.20 at 9:28 am

Q & A in Howard Levitt’s column in today’s National Post. I like his response to these two questions:

Q: Even though I work in an essential-service office, we have the capability to work from home. Does my employer have an obligation to let us work from home as there really is no reason to be in the office?

A: No, it is entirely up to the employer whether they call you back to the workplace. Productivity is irrelevant to that right.

Q: Why is my place of employment demanding I work in an office when I am fully capable of working remotely? A: The employer has every right to require employees to return to work when they have been sent home for the pandemic. It’s of no consequence that the employee prefers to work from home (many do) and it similarly would be of no consequence even if the employee could prove that they can work more productively from home.

#145 Gravy Train on 12.12.20 at 10:02 am

#116 Nonplused on 12.11.20 at 9:13 pm
“So, you use no carbon? [Methinks] you do.” I produce less than half the carbon you do because I use solar panels! :P

“Carbon is one of those things that is ubiquitous and we are all equally guilty.” No, we’re not! As stated, I use solar panels, so I literally produce less than half the carbon you produce. Get it now? No? I give up! :P

“It is also one of these things that we cannot do much about in the short term.” Wrong again. If each Canadian put solar panels on their roof, there’d be close to a halving of the current carbon output. See the law of large numbers.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

“Therefore it is just a tax.” No, it’s a disincentive to pollute. Quit spreading disinformation. “[Your] application for injunctive relief […] referred to the Court is denied.” :P

“They could raise the HST and it would have the same [effect].” Wrong again. As any economist will tell you, human behaviour can be modified through incentives. Taxes on ‘bads’ and subsidies for ‘goods’ are used by governments to reallocate resources in society for the benefit of its members. :P

#146 maxx on 12.12.20 at 10:22 am

One possible answer is in Garth’s post:

“Indeed. Mr. Socks doled out more than $250 billion in CERB and other payments. The results are interesting:”……..

“Personal and business cash savings exploded, says CIBC, to $170 billion”…….

#147 Yuus bin Haad on 12.12.20 at 10:45 am

Alex might be encouraged to visit cra.ca and read the fine print re the CERB – in fact, it’s big and bold right on the landing page. Oh, and when the sheriff knocks, do not resist.

#148 Kato on 12.12.20 at 10:53 am

#111 Paul on 12.11.20 at 8:52 pm
#53 Peter Courtney on 12.11.20 at 5:28 pm
Hi Garth, be careful who you vote for? Just who do you suggest I vote for? It seems your mo is to diss evert political party. I have yet to hear just who the hell you support. It seems like you dislike every party.
____________________

With all respect to our mustachioed host, the problem with political parties is that they are full of politicians.

_________

Mr. Keto,

Can you suggest a better alternative?
__________

Nope. Peter was asking why (he says) Garth seems to speak out against every political party. With no intent to speak for him, I offered a reason why someone could take issue with a political party besides the one across the aisle.

Trust a politician to act like a politician and you are less likely to be disappointed (and might be pleasantly surprised once in a while).

#149 Dharma Bum on 12.12.20 at 11:23 am

Lockdowns are BOGUS.

The areas that have been locked down are the areas where the cases are increasing.

What is a “lockdown”anyway?

Toronto is supposedly “Locked Down”. Yet, when I drive from one area of the city to another (to get to a specific Costco that has the particular supplies I require to obtain for my daughter’s business), the roads are PACKED with vehicles same as any time a year ago, two years ago, or whenever. When I get to the store, there’s no line up to get in, but the place is busy as hell. Crowded aisles, long checkout lines. Back on the road, there are construction crews on every second intersection. Parking lots along the way are full of cars.
If this is a “lockdown”, then, OK, I guess so. Whatever they say. Seems pretty much like business as usual.
Lockdowns only hurt small independent businesses and eat-in restaurants. Lockdowns inadvertently kill those business owners. Sweeping, broad based regional and city-wide lockdowns are ridiculously ineffective against the virus and are seriously harmful to small businesses and others trying to survive. In the meantime, nobody is locking themselves down. The downtown core may be empty, but the rest of the city is humming – firing on all cylinders – despite the so called “lockdown”.
Besides, the COVID numbers have been increasing in the very regions where the lockdowns were meant to decrease them.
Politicians know exactly where the spike in cases are occurring, but it’s not politically collect to publicly identify those specific sectors and areas, nor would they use effective targeted measures to restrict the lockdowns to those areas. So they favour politics and optics instead of practical measures by “locking down” entire giant geographic regions (but not really – just restaurants, bars, nail salons, hairdressers, and small stores) – which means “business as usual”.
Don’t worry, Christmas isn’t really cancelled. The government shills keep saying it is, but we all know that nobody is really staying home alone, and everybody is getting together, like nothing’s going on. Despite the official “lock down”.
On Monday, York Region is going into “lock down”.
York region is a massive geographical area that includes (among other municipalities) large “cities” like Markham, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Vaughan, and Newmarket.
The case number reached a “high” of 185 as of Dec. 12th.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-reports-1-873-new-covid-19-cases-17-more-deaths-and-record-number-of-tests-processed-1.5228685

There are 1.2 million people in York Region. So, for .015% of the population getting Covid in a day (spread amongst about 8 municipalities dispersed over 1762 square kilometers), they are shutting it down.

They are testing about 65,000 people a day. So, about 2.8% are testing positive Ontario wide. Almost all of cases are subsequently being resolved.

“Locally, there are 522 new cases in Toronto, 436 in Peel, 185 in York Region and 109 in Hamilton. There are 1,918 more resolved cases,” Health Minister Christine Elliott tweeted.

So why do they keep broadening the area of lockdowns?

Politics.

What a pathetic joke.

I guarantee you, on Monday morning, the roads and 90% of the stores are still buzzing, but restaurant owners, hair stylists, small biz and retailers, etc., are having their livelihoods stolen by Doug Ford and his merry band of ignoramuses.

#150 FriedEggs on 12.12.20 at 11:59 am

If it was really that bad – no one would be allowed to go out anywhere period.

The mask is the only visual the masses can see that gives the appearance something is wrong.

Now, please let me go get my 6″ deep ‘cranium scrape’ thru my nose to see if i have Covid – yet they are worried about droplets.

#151 kc on 12.12.20 at 12:57 pm

#14 Keith on 12.11.20 at 3:06 pm

Out here in B.C., most families will soon have their own $1000 share of 1.7 billion in perceived free

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

I am not taking the money… you can have mine if you want…..

#149 Dharma Bum on 12.12.20 at 11:23 am

They are testing about 65,000 people a day. So, about 2.8% are testing positive Ontario wide. Almost all of cases are subsequently being resolved.

“Locally, there are 522 new cases in Toronto, 436 in Peel, 185 in York Region and 109 in Hamilton. There are 1,918 more resolved cases,” Health Minister Christine Elliott tweeted.

So why do they keep broadening the area of lockdowns?

Politics.

What a pathetic joke.e money,

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Wrong question to ask…. what you want to know is the PCR test CT numbers….

this is the stuff they are keeping quiet… how many of these “cases” are not infectious and the “positive” guy is actually asymptomatic and never a threat to anyone… but because he is tested positive @ 36-40 ct it is called a case….

Tell us the truth if you want our trust.
Pure BS, sorry

you can have my vaccine too…..

#152 Cici on 12.12.20 at 4:06 pm

“The personal savings rate went from 7% to 28% in mid-2020.”

_____________________________________________

Seems unbelieveable eh? Here’s but one case that explains why: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/p-e-woman-asked-repay-215320648.html

She made less than $5,000 net in 2019 but is now sobbing and crying that she has to give back the $18,500 she was given after applying for CERB when she didn’t actually meet the qualification criteria.

But hey, she says she “researched and researched” to ensure that she qualified, yet somehow wasn’t able to differentiate between “net” and “gross” income when completing her application. And now we’re alll supposed to feel bad that she’s not going to “have Christmas this year!”

But, even if she had made the $5,000 in net income, why should she have qualified for $18,500? Especially when her husband was still working and had his income?

Worse still, this means that any household in which both partners earned only $5,000 each net last year would have been eligible to receive at least $37,000 this year in benefits, thus tripling their annual household earnings.

That doesn’t seem fair or logical to me. I can see them receiving an amount based on their earnings for the previous year with a stipulation that proof of earnings would have to be provided at a later date in order to keep the benefit amount, but why should they receive in excess of what they previously earned?

So certain individuals, parties and groups could blame and diabolize the WFH crowd who never stopped producing and never collected a red cent in COVID benefits? And much more important, what about the full-time workers (healthcare, parcel delivery, big-box and restaurant staff) who are out there risking their lives every single day so the rest of us have access to food, medication, healthcare and other goods and services?

Neither of these groups’ earnings tripled when COVID hit; they stayed the same or similar to the previous year. Like it’s the fault of full-time frontline workers or the WFH crowd that certain people chose careers yielding $5,000 net per year? Is it really fair to throw money at people earning next to nothing, then ask the average worker to make up that difference on their behalf? Apparently yes, let the full-time, salaried workers pay for everyone else’s cake!

It appears that social engineering is already in full force?

#153 Trudi Woods on 12.12.20 at 10:17 pm

Here in wee Erin most businesses are keeping their collective heads above water…South of here?…not so much …Town council is totally tone deaf…never mind the fed stuff. Provincial…Doug seemed be everyone’s favourite brother in law…not now…

#154 Prince Polo on 12.13.20 at 8:55 am

#28 Flop… on 12.11.20 at 3:55 pm
#17 flop… on 12.11.20 at 3:14

///////////////////////

Great….Fake flop is back!

I saw you post yesterday, and today you came back for seconds.

Who do you want me to send around your house to give you a lecture as your punishment for not being able to choose your own name?

Option one…Crowdie giving you a lecture on teachers and public servants.

Option two…Dolce Vita giving you a lecture on COVID.

Option three… MF giving you s lecture on why Toronto is the best city on the planet…

M46BC

=================================
Everybody who is anybody on this blog knows that the #17 post was not long-winded enough to be the real Flop! OK – I kid, man. I hope you can take the joke. Happy Sunday y’all.

#155 Prince Polo on 12.13.20 at 9:34 am

#120 Nonplused on 12.11.20 at 9:27 pm
#110 Nonplused on 12.11.20 at 8:50 pm
“Trump lost. Suck it up. – Garth”

Still before SCOTUS. The Texas case will be interesting because they are arguing their constitutional rights were violated. But regardless Biden will be president on Jan. 20th. The next election will be run different though, no late night ballot spikes.

Not any more. – Garth

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One of the soccer teams I coached lost a gold medal game because the goon on the other team pushed our goalie into the net before the game winning shot was taken, which our goalie saved but he was in the net. The goal stood and the game was decided. 75 million people think that something similar happened in the US elections as well. Never the less the results will stand because there is no instant replay.

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That would imply that all of the Trump voters believe the election was stolen? If that’s the case, can we simply change the name of the Republican party to the Party of Illogicality? Surely, SOME *if not most* of the 75M voters are mentally capable of accepting a Democratic victory?