The hoodies

Airbnb lost $700 million in the first nine months of this year on revenues of $2.5 billion. In real life you’d drag it behind the barn and shoot it. Same with DoorDash, the meals-delivery guys who last year burned $667 million on sales of $885 million. What a disaster.

But this week when DoorDash stock became available to investors for the first time (it’s called an IPO – initial public offering), the kids swarmed it. Shares doubled for a while Wednesday and when the smoke cleared the company was worth about $40 billion.

As for Airbnb, the IPO was scheduled Thursday. And while Covid crushed it for a while with more and more cities starting to ban or restrict it, the betting is by the time trading starts (there was a delayed opening – too much demand) this thing will have exploded in market capitalization. More swarming. More FOMO. More frenzied buying of anything that’s (a) online and (b) new.

(Update: the stock price of Airbnb doubled from its opening, valuing the company at more than $100 billion. And it still makes no money.)

Look at Canada’s tech baby, Shopify. It provides hands-on eCommerce retail tools, and while it’s been operating for a while (I used it as the platform for iPad-based sales of pumpkin spice muffins and Rocky Road ice cream at the Belfountain General Store), its shares have absolutely bloated. Company assets are scant, yet at $170 billion it’s now worth more than two of the major banks – combined.

And while we’re talking about speculative investor frenzy and asset bloat, don’t forget Bitcoin. The crypto – backed by absolutely nothing – has again been flirting with the $20,00 mark, gyrating wildly in value. It’s not a viable currency. Not a reliable medium of exchange. It’s not even a storehouse of value. It cannot be loaned out or used in fractional banking. There is no regulator and its very existence is threatened by romping computing power. And yet it’s been swarmed.

“Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies,” says analyst Cam Hui, “are the latest digital equivalent of Beanie Babies or sports figure trading cards. It’s difficult to see how they can have value in the long run.”

And they won’t. CBs will one day have their own digital currencies, backed and regulated by governments. The private crypto years will end in tears.

But back to Airbnb, DoorDash, LightSpeed, Nuvei and other profitless, sexy, craved outfits arousing investors. What’s happening? Is the FOMO legit?

Maybe. Partly. Depends. The pandemic has poured gas on societal trends like online shopping, WFH, deurbanization plus the digitization of financial services and everything from buying cars to telemedicine. Quarantines, physical distancing, lockdowns and virus panic have changed many human activities in 2020. Outfits like DoorDash (it’s delivered over 550 million meals to people’s homes this year) and Shopify, powering online sales, have emerged as investment winners as a result.

Investors who use these services ain’t dumb. They can see this. They pile on.

Second, the virus has resulted in a huge, steaming pile of cash in society – as detailed here earlier this week. Millions of people are working from the spare bedroom, not spending money on gas, car maintenance, child care or pants. Costs have been slashed, incomes retained and the personal savings rate has doubled as a result. Then there’s Justin’s $250 billion in direct payments to individuals and companies. CIBC economists say this has resulted in $170 billion sloshing around in bank accounts. Or buying stock in DoorDash and Airbnb.

Besides, a lot of these WFHers are bored. Like seriously, eat-the-drywall bored. No bars, clubs or restaurants. No concerts or business trips. No commuting or concerts. No pro sports games. I mean, how long can you spending Zooming colleagues, walking the pooch, surfing Netflix or wandering around in your skivvies eating Cheetos?

This brings us to the age of Robinhood. It’s exciting.

Millions of moisters now have this app on their phones. It allows ‘investors’ (aka gamblers) to buy and sell securities fast, without cost. No commissions at all. So day traders can flip in and out of positions every few hours. Or minutes. Or seconds. And they do.

Says Wall Street/Bay Street vet Ed Pennock:

The Robin Hoodies are transforming markets. They are 20% of the volume. 25% on a busy day. They have new tricks which the old dogs aren’t paying attention to. Commissionless trades enable rapid turnover. They don’t trust many of the structured products. They want to buy and sell stocks. Particularly if they can bail for nothing. Robin Hoodies do their own research. They rely on each other. They use Seeking Alpha, Zacks’, Motley Fool, and others. They don’t use P/E’s, PSR’s or many standard tools. They don’t care for the analysts and their recommendations and target prices. They’re not fixated by “Bubbles and Peaks and Crashes”. They buy the dips. And if it works that’s good. If it doesn’t, then they bail. On to the next one.

Exactly. Massive momentum investing – people going with the flow. Riding the trend up. Jumping off when some genius on Twitter says to. And lots of them have made a bundle – after all, the Hoodies were materially responsible for propelling Tesla into space. Now DoorDash billions. More to come. What’s happening fully eclipses the dot-com mania which, two decades ago, did not end well.

More than $160 billion has been raised in the US this year in IPOs – amid the worst public health emergency and global recession in a century. A sizeable chunk came from clueless people who got a text telling them to press Send.

Be balanced. Be diversified. Be ready. This is real.

160 comments ↓

#1 Howard on 12.10.20 at 1:08 pm

Exactly. Massive momentum investing – people going with the flow. Riding the trend up. Jumping off when some genius on Twitter says to. And lots of them have made a bundle – after all, the Hoodies were materially responsible for propelling Tesla into space. Now DoorDash billions. More to come. What’s happening fully eclipses the dot-com mania which, two decades ago, did not end well.

——————————

I’m speechless.

In the 3+ years I’ve frequented this blog, this is the first time I have ever seen you utter anything even remotely bearish about any stock index.

Btw I think the Nasdaq goes to 16-18,000 before collapsing 2000-style. The money will then flow to commodities just as it did during the 2001-2008 bull run. That’s my thesis.

Extreme, as usual. But steady investors do not do tech IPOs. – Garth

#2 Leftover on 12.10.20 at 1:16 pm

Meanwhile, Amazon and Shopify just leased nearly 200,000 square feet of downtown Toronto office space.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-amazon-inks-deals-for-toronto-office-space-after-rival-shopifys/

That’s a lot of cubicles, occupied by people who aren’t working from home. So what’s old is new again, or do I have that backwards?

#3 fishman on 12.10.20 at 1:17 pm

We must be on the same wavelength, if on different oceans. Sitting outside in the cold & dark with my coffee this morning. A regular, who contracts handyman jobs for the condo rentals; repainting,drywall,minor plumbing kind of stuff sits down. Appropriately distanced. Hows work going I ask? Oh! I’m not doing that anymore. I’m making four times the money playing the stock market.

#4 Felix on 12.10.20 at 1:22 pm

If..only…dogawful mutts had as much value to contribute to this planet as gangstas in hoodies……

#5 Cheese on 12.10.20 at 1:25 pm

As a miserable minimum wager working in a hospital, I see no reason not to gamble every penny I have this way. At least that’s hope, instead of my daily grind that makes me want to die. Either strike it rich, or fail and be no worse off. I suspect that’s the logic behind the Robin Hood, at least for plebs like myself.

Just a counterpoint to all those in the comments that actually have the safety of a decent portfolio.

#6 mike from mtl on 12.10.20 at 1:30 pm

Thank dog for the S&P500 being choosy over antiquated things like actual profits… 1929 crash here we come.

How Telsa sneaked in by a technicality is a bit worrisome.

#7 Old Ron the Investor on 12.10.20 at 1:31 pm

Kids these days, they don’t value a dollar
Don’t like chewing, but they sure can swallow
Wasn’t that way in my younger day
There’s something wrong with kids these days.

Tom Rush

What did you say that app was again ?

#8 jess on 12.10.20 at 1:36 pm

Millions of pounds of investors’ pension savings have not been returned by a German property company that was promising to keep them safe, a BBC investigation has revealed.

Dolphin Trust, now known as German Property Group, promised high interest payments and investors’ original capital back, if they lent it money for up to five years.

But the firm has now collapsed owing an estimated £1bn to investors all over the world.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55077709

#9 Erik mtl on 12.10.20 at 1:43 pm

RE: “Bitcoin. The crypto – backed by absolutely nothing –”

But what is anything really backed by? Isn’t the money that we currently use ultimately backed by the confidence that other’s see it’s value and will accept it in exchange for goods or services?

But when CB’s just “print” massive and massive amounts of money, that confidence slowly gets reduced. And this is why Bitcoin is getting so popular.

Our currency is backed by the power to tax. I think you know how potent that is. – Garth

#10 Stan Brooks on 12.10.20 at 1:52 pm

The problem is that major currencies will not preserve values either when compared to other asset classes.

It is basically a coupon with expiration date, guaranteed to lose rapidly value.

How is that money when the value retaining part is almost completely missing for all practical intends and purposes?

Not a bitcoin fan, but the value is actually rising, not declining.

And the biggest question is how can we have accurate measure anything if the underlying measure – currency is not reliable/faulty? That applies to inflation/taxes/capital gains calculation etc.

Cheers,

#11 Overheardyou on 12.10.20 at 1:54 pm

Would the fact that it is stimulus funding being used versus buying on margin make a difference in the end result? After all, governments gave these gamblers the funds.

#12 Tua the Redeemer on 12.10.20 at 1:58 pm

Canada already has a digital currency, the Canadian Dollar. Far more of them exist digitally than physically and there’s a vast network in place allowing you to send them all over the globe. You can borrow in them and lend in them at trivial interest rates for terms going out 30 years. What more could you want?

#13 Mossom on 12.10.20 at 2:00 pm

Sorry, Garth, but you couldn’t be more wrong on Bitcoin. Here’s why:

“The crypto – backed by absolutely nothing – has again been flirting with the $20,00 mark, gyrating wildly in value.”

The crypto is backed by the code itself, which cannot be changed. Its whole existence is based around the fact that it doesn’t have to be “backed” by anything or anybody. That’s the whole point of the thing.

“It’s not a viable currency. Not a reliable medium of exchange. It’s not even a storehouse of value.”

I can understand the currency dig, but it very much is a reliable medium of exchange. It can be exchanged into any fiat currency for a fraction of the cost of most other payment methods. It requires no middleman, other than miners, to complete an exchange. As for the storehouse of value, it is much more of a store of value than cash as it cannot be inflated away by central bank printing. Same with bonds whose currency denomination is also subject to CB meddling.

“It cannot be loaned out or used in fractional banking.”

It can, in fact, be loaned out. Take a look at companies like Celsius, BlockFi, Nexo, and Crypto.com. Still early days, but the ability to generate yield on Bitcoin loans already exists. Once the traditional financial institutions finally get around to it, you’ll have plenty of opportunity to loan your Bitcoin in the near future.

“There is no regulator and its very existence is threatened by romping computing power.”

Computing power has been increasing exponentially for decades. There is very little risk there. Secondly, the fact that is has no regulator makes it one of the few free markets remaining in the world. No CB’s to devalue it. No banks to jack up fees, crash your yields, or refuse withdrawals. Again – the fact that there is no regulator is its greatest asset.

You’d think someone who hates government intervention and MMT would see the value in Bitcoin as a global medium of exchange, and as a store of value that is deflationary by nature due to its innate code and the limited number of Bitcoins that can ever be produced.

Just because you haven’t taken the time to understand what Bitcoin really is does not mean you should dismiss it.

#14 Flop... on 12.10.20 at 2:06 pm

Just been helping my elderly Father-In-Law complete hie Empty Homes Tax exemption.

He doesn’t understand all the new rules, still trying to live like it’s 1985.

Went to the bank during the summer to pay a property tax instalment, that is only part one of the process.

Step two is to go online and claim senior Grant and the basic grant, but doesn’t know how to turn on a computer, so didn’t.

I only discovered this out a month or so ago.

The city sent him an extra bill for nearly $900.

I called the city to see exactly what could be done to fix the situation, applied for the two grants and they applied them and he was left with a 45 dollar penalty for failing to do so in time, maybe six months late.

He thinks the city is picking on him, but doesn’t realize the new rules actually keep his tax bill in check, and because nothing has changed in the status of the house, it is in his best interest to complete everything as soon as possible to avoid penalties.

It took me 2 minutes to complete the form.

58 minutes to explain to him that I had completed the form on his behalf, and he was good to go…

M46BC

#15 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 12.10.20 at 2:07 pm

“CBs will one day have their own digital currencies, backed and regulated by governments.”

And there lies the very problem.
We all know how responsible Governments are.

A CENTRALIZED DISASTER RUN BY A FEW UNQUALIFIED BABOONS.

But maybe you think differently of the Trudea-Freeland Gang.

Like the government going digital is somehow going to make anything better???

#16 Property Accountant on 12.10.20 at 2:09 pm

Canadian government pours so much money to the people, businesses and financial institutions that they shall send us all printing machines – Oh my, you need 50$ bill ? Hit PRINT.
I just applied for 6 CEBA interest free “Loans” 60K each, after repayment in 2 years of 40K each we will have $120,000 GIFT left from Justine & Christia in our books.
Did I mention other freebies like CERB, CEWS etc.?

In times like these, what do you think the value of money is? It used to be an interest rate charged by the bank.

No wonder people run to gold, bitcoin, tech stocks and real estate backed by 1% mortgages.

At least those things CANNOT be made out of thin air.

#17 Diamond Dog on 12.10.20 at 2:12 pm

Highly informative Garth, all very valid points and they all trend towards the trend itself.

However… the worm always turns. This isn’t 2000 all over again. What happens when this pandemic ends and things normalize? Hey? Hey? And they will. We’ve been saying this for some time now that all pandemics end (at least, in one way or another). What happens next as people realize they need to be closer to work? As interest rates jump? As stimulus comes and the free money ends? As bloated high flyers like Airbnb, even with a shinier future has nowhere to go but down because logic demands it? What happens when FOMO gets replaced by FOLE (Fear Of Losing Everything)?

Reality. “Oh. These stocks are losing money. Commodity values fall after all, who knew. Why didn’t I lock in my variable. I’ve been holed up so long, my wife hates me now and I need to declare bankruptcy because my stock picks crashed, I bought into a falling knife and they crashed too.”

Which brings me back to the opine of Scott Gottlieb. He mentioned earlier this week that he believes there will be a sharp drop off of reported cases some time in January due to a combination of herd immunity from infected and vaccines. Some time in Feb, pandemic numbers crater. Is he right?

Lets explore that. Worldometer says the U.S. has 47,891 cases per million pop which in lamen’s terms is 4.8% confirmed cases of sick and dead in the U.S. .

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Scott opines that models suggest 15 to 20% of the population is currently infected. Add another 20 million vaccines and this jumps by another 6%. Add a few more percentage points between now and Jan and we are around 30% herd immunity by Feb 1st, creating a marked decline in the daily numbers of this pandemic. Is he right?

I’m more reserved sticking with doublings of reported cases myself with nations with good overall testing (as France and the U.K. posit) and that the models Scott Gottlieb uses are well off (perhaps intentionally so to ease fears on the death rate), opining that U.S. herd immunity is currently at 10%. Add 6% from vaccines and growing by the end of Jan and another 12 million cases by Feb 1st (24 total) for oh, 8% and we get a back of the napkin total of 24% herd immunity. That would be enough even at 24% to noticeably slow down daily numbers of this pandemic but it will still grind away dropping off to 100 k dailies or less sometime in March.

As time marches on with more daily cases (slowing but still adding up) and vaccines, readers get the drift. Good news for Airbnb, DoorDash, LightSpeed, Nuvei and any others with no profits in a selloff? Nope, that cherry is done popped. Good news for investors? Not really, all investors get to look forward to is Q4 and Q1 macroeconomics off the rails. By Q1, enough people will be asking when they get poked, “how long will this vax last anyway?”, that they might even get an answer and that answer could be 3 years:

(For those who don’t have the time, go to 40:15)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxJO8MrlGcg

The vaccine will likely need to be reformulated every 2 or 3 years. – Scott Gottlieb

If it’s 3 years, its not just us that will need to line up for more pokes in 3 years time at the start of flu season, its all those people living in Trumpian states like South and North Dakota, running confirmed cases @ 10 to 11% (their true cases of infected could be easily 3x that, going by their lower testing per capita numbers and their charts dropping off as one might expect as one approaches 30+%. Have a look at what one might expect).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/south-dakota/

#18 Niagara Region on 12.10.20 at 2:12 pm

Great article “Foreign Ownership Registry a Game Changer in B.C. says real estate insiders” from Global and Mail:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/article-foreign-ownership-registry-a-game-changer-in-bc-say-real-estate/

#19 Niagara Region on 12.10.20 at 2:16 pm

Re: DoorDash and Uber. On California Prop 22, “Wave of Anti-Worker Laws Pushed by Big Tech”:
https://www.democracynow.org/2020/12/8/prop_22_uber_lyft_gig_workers

#20 earthboundmisfit on 12.10.20 at 2:20 pm

Don’t fret for Airbnb …. up 115% from IPO

#21 T-Rev on 12.10.20 at 2:24 pm

All my investments are in tax-sheltered accounts, so moving in and out a position (which I don’t really do a lot of except in extreme situations, like 2020 where I flipped my equity/fixed ratios twice this year) doesn’t trigger any sort of tax liability or reporting requirement.

These kids trading high volume- what’s the accounting liability they’re taking on? Or does Robinhood roll the hole thing up into an end of year report for them to make it simple? Because if you gotta pay your account a couple bucks to reconcile every trade at the end of the tax year, it’s not gonna be much fun come April. Just curious.

#22 looking up on 12.10.20 at 2:26 pm

Agree totally, watch out. Equity prices are way ahead of valuations especially the NASDAQ.

This bull market was already in the late stages of a classic cycle after a huge bull run. Even before this “pandemic rush” it was overvalued.

#23 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.10.20 at 2:26 pm

This can and will not end well.
Top ten post.
Should be mandatory reading in Grade 12.

#24 R on 12.10.20 at 2:26 pm

One third of the S&P 500 companies will be in harms way due to innovation in the next five years. Be on the right side of change. Passive investing worked for the last ten years due to MBAs running the companies, and grossing earnings per share with dept shares buy backs. 2020 to 2030 will be the decade of real innovations by real engineers.

#25 KNOW IT ALL on 12.10.20 at 2:26 pm

“What’s happening fully eclipses the dot-com mania which, two decades ago, did not end well.”

And this won’t end well either.
It’s going to TAKE DOWN the whole market with it.

ONLY those who have CASH on the side to jump in will benefit large from the opportunities.

Those with a B&D will just ride it through – nothing lost nothing gained. Only problem with that strategy is you have to stay in the markets for eternity.

#26 SunShowers on 12.10.20 at 2:30 pm

I just sold all my bitcoin (all 0.07 of them), at the 20k peak 2 days ago. Glad it got back to $20k again after I chickened out the first time a few years ago.

Not too bad considering I mined them myself. Free money!

#27 Doug t on 12.10.20 at 2:47 pm

The world has lost its mind – EVERYTHING is at the tip of your fingers, just click and instantaneously do ANYTHING, invest, up vote, like, down vote, rant, have sex, buy sh*t, go further in debt, order drugs etc – we are on a high tech speed train heading into the abyss without having an inkling about anything ffs

#28 Outrage on 12.10.20 at 2:48 pm

Millennials are a smart bunch. They ride up tsla,nio shop and amzn.They know its crazy to put your money in a 5 year gic.They swing and day trade and are not into a 4% or 5% return for the year. They get that in a couple of hours or the day. A few days or weeks swing trade get them 10% to 50% .This is the new normal.
Real estate to much money tied up but they buy for the long haul because certain parts of Canada go up year after year.No worries there.Mils got into Bitcoin under $500 so its still easy sailing for them. Some of these Mils should be financial advisors !

#29 Tommy on 12.10.20 at 3:00 pm

From online shopping to skyrocketing commercial property values, higher taxes and rents, UBC’s ‘city’ growth, gentrification and yes, the pandemic, many factors are at play.

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-the-hollowing-out-of-vancouvers-west-side-part-1

#30 Tommy on 12.10.20 at 3:08 pm

Leftover said: “That’s a lot of cubicles”

Cubicles are so 1990s. Most modern offices have taken to the open office concept. Cubicles take up precious real estate space and undermine micromanaging managers so they’ve been on the out for many years now.

#31 calgary rip off on 12.10.20 at 3:09 pm

Update on the virus:

People who succumb to the virus apparently stop producing appropriate antibodies after several weeks after the initial exposure. In those who survived vs. those who succumbed the difference is that a switch in appropriate antibodies is required, and that happens after several weeks, with those surviving making the appropriate immune response switching IgG antibodies, for example. The researchers documented this in the Cell journal today, however underlying reasons of why some individual’s immune systems responded correctly to covid infection and others did not is unclear. This evidence to the researchers reinforces the idea that a vaccine is needed as it is unclear at this point why there is bug in the immune response to covid in some individuals. Age, gender and ethnicity along with comorbidities were not examined in the current Cell journal article, just specific antibody responses to covid 19 across moderate vs. severe infection in survivors and non survivors.

#32 Philio on 12.10.20 at 3:25 pm

Hmmm the robin hoodies are just a symptom of what the market already is… The app just made it frictionless, thus we reached the apotheosis/zenith. But let’s be real, stock markets stopped being a true reflection of value a long time ago. When it’s algo’s pumping and dumping or folks in white shirts and lambos it’s ok, but when it’s kids with phones suddenly this is a worrying trend?

Please…

Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered. Especially those with phones. – Garth

#33 Diamond Dog on 12.10.20 at 3:30 pm

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices

If investors invested in an S/P mutual that spread the risk evenly throughout the 500 listed large caps or ETF’s (when they existed), the S/P was a dog with fleas if one invested in the mid 90’s and sold in 2009/10. Since 09′, the S/P has risen 360%. Will it continue to do so, rising another 360% in this coming decade? Unlikely. There are too many forces combining against this. We are seeing debt bubbles, real estate bubbles, public debt bubbles, bonds are in a big bubble, I do not envy those in the higher powers that be.

It’s not just the bubbles this coming decade is inheriting and have to try to grow our way out of (which I suspect will be quite painful), its the unforeseen events that happen like this 2020’s pandemic. We haven’t seen the worst, for example, of climate change. Most view climate change as a slow burn, a problem that is for someone else’s lifetime. It is not. This blog may not be around to see the end of the coming decade but the 2020’s will be marked by fundamental changes to our climate that most will still not see coming.

It’s not just climate change, its what is driving it. It’s the lack of government regulations that pave the way for overpopulation the world over and the disregard we have for regulations in general that weren’t initially designed to protect corporate America, but us, the people, remember? The political arena has developed such a total disregard for regulations that are supposed to protect the environment in all aspects from air and water to the food supply that there is a price to the propaganda we swallow. It’s the price of environmental degradation now baring the full brunt of our waste and greed.

I’m sorry to caste shade on blind optimism and growth, but we hare hitting our limits not just with what we can borrow which, in case readers haven’t noticed are kept in check by currency valuations of which all nations throughout the world globally compete (money is not as free as we think), but with human populations and the environmental support it takes to keep us alive. We are hitting our limits (in some respects, we’ve overshot), there is momentum to these forces of change and the financial environments will be more than challenging going forward. What I’m saying is, it’s going to be harder to make money going forward if that’s your Shtick.

#34 Trail Runner on 12.10.20 at 3:31 pm

“The Tortoise and the Hare (Robinhood) “, meanwhile Prefs appreciate 10-15% with juicy tax advantaged dividends as bond yields nudge up slowly and eventually win the “race”

#35 Guelph Guru on 12.10.20 at 3:32 pm

The stock market is a place to raise capital to finance projects which would increase productivity and create wealth. It has now become a giant world wide casino.
It can still be used to find excellent investments to effectively deploy your capital.
Technology is good. It has provided us with excellent tools. It’s now so easy to buy Brk.B and get Warren to work for you. The kids will learn the hard way.
Value and sound economics will prevail as usual.

#36 Jeremy on 12.10.20 at 3:36 pm

This is taking me back to 1999/2000 in many ways.

Watching Shopify stock testing the $1400 range repeatedly since the summer reminds me of tech stocks in late ’99 early 2000 testing their peaks. Just before crashing. People buying/selling the marginal lows and peaks of Shopify right now are in for some bad news I think when it goes back below $1000 soon.

#37 CJohnC on 12.10.20 at 3:51 pm

The Robinhooders like to gamble for sure.

Retail involvement in the derivatives market is at a record high and on Tuesday alone, the volume of bullish bets on stocks popular with Robinhood traders — such as Tesla, Pfizer and Palantir — each eclipsed total call volumes on the S&P 500 Index. as per Bloomberg news

#38 Bezengy on 12.10.20 at 3:52 pm

Talked to one of those WFHer’s today as I’m trying to transfer funds out of a LIRA account at one of the big five. Without getting into too much detail I get the feeling that if she was at the office things would have gone much smoother and a lot faster for both of us. Called at 8:00 am sharp and had to wait for an hour to speak to someone. Five bucks says she was still in her pajamas.

#39 Phylis on 12.10.20 at 3:53 pm

Did we forgot tanstaafl already? Front running will mint new bagholders. Tech wreck two is underway.

#40 WTF on 12.10.20 at 3:53 pm

Think Bre-x remember when it was the darling? Then Not so much.

https://coolinterestingstuff.com/bre-x-the-6-billion-gold-fraud

#41 bucket55 on 12.10.20 at 3:54 pm

Robinhood makes it’s money selling data to Hedge Funds so I understand. Tracking phones is where the moneys at, Google and FitBit will know when and where you pee among other things I am sure you probably are not aware of.

#42 Dolce Vita on 12.10.20 at 4:00 pm

#17 Diamond Dog

First, I like what you say.

Second, Scott needs to know immunity after 31 days of the first jab.

Third, the USA is not the World.

Fourth, no one knows what the herd immunity number is, 50%, 60%, 70% of the population, or more?

Fifth, Canada’s “guesstimate” at vaccination (CTV National News last night) – no comment, numbers self-explanatory:

https://i.imgur.com/smk8tmD.png

Scott is an Optimist, the World needs more like him.

——————————

PS:

Canada made headlines in Europe today by approving Pfizer’s vaccine. And low and behold our Major-General Dany Fortin on France 24 hailed as:

“…a war-hardened commander put in charge of coordinating distribution.”

Française CRUSHING on Québécois, nice.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20201209-canada-approves-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-1

#43 calgaryPhantom on 12.10.20 at 4:00 pm

The writing is on the wall….
80% in cash as of end of November and plan to go 100% cash by year end. This will end badly. Will wake up to feast in few months

That is extreme and unwise. Stop being emotional – Garth

#44 yvr_lurker on 12.10.20 at 4:01 pm

It would sure be interesting to find out how much of the taxpayers $$ through the CEW program has gone to support businesses that are doing very well during the pandemic

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/cews-wage-subsidy-jobs-covid-1.5834790

and who have not used it to support furloughed workers. Seems rather easy to game the system.

On this blog, the implication that I am getting is that the majority of the financial largesse that the Gov’t has thrown out has gone to individuals (and not companies) who did not need the CERB and other support….

#45 S.O on 12.10.20 at 4:12 pm

One of the issues I have with bitcoin and crypto people is their cult like mentality. They cant handle criticism, and the fact that if the industry was regulated some of them would have ended up in jail for their shady behaviour ..

#46 Dolce Vita on 12.10.20 at 4:19 pm

Europa Virus Porn Stress Relief

TIP if you get into an argument with your other half being caged at home thanks to COVID, what an Italian did and oddly, reported by the Dutch (welcome to Europa), use Google Translate:

https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/1351660766/italiaan-loopt-450-km-om-af-te-koelen-na-ruzie-met-zijn-vrouw

…almost made it to Schweiz, almost.

#47 kommykim on 12.10.20 at 4:21 pm

RE: “the Hoodies were materially responsible for propelling Tesla into space.”

Not to mention Elon Musk who propelled an actual Tesla into space just because he could…

#48 Randy on 12.10.20 at 4:26 pm

The reason bitcoin jumped is because Paypal recently offered their U.S. users a crypto trading option. But it’s utter lunacy. Once you ‘buy’ the bitcoin, you cannot withdraw it to your own wallet. You cannot send it as payment to anyone. The only thing you can do with it is to….wait for it….sell it.

So do you really ‘own’ any bitcoin with this scheme? No. You just see a number on a website. It’s a fantasy. Now, Paypal ought to be buying/selling bitcoin on the backend with some sort of daily settlement action so as to cover all their user’s holdings, right? Are they? Who knows? Are they running a fractional reserve system? Have they NOT claimed to be running a fractional reserve system? And if they are indeed holding bitcoin on your behalf, isn’t the fact that you can’t request it just a tiny bit suspicious? I mean, back in the day, at least you could ask your brokerage firm for paper certificates for the stocks you own. This is craziness.

#49 Penny Henny on 12.10.20 at 4:35 pm

Doordash market cap is now at 70 BILLION!
Doordash is currently worth more than all the NHL teams combined.
Much more!

https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2020/12/09/forbes-ranks-rangers-as-most-valuable-nhl-franchise-five-at-1-billion/#:~:text=By%20the%20Forbes'%202020%20list,%24800M%2C%20according%20to%20Forbes.

#50 CF SOLDIER on 12.10.20 at 4:44 pm

WOW Mr. Turner, that hurt so much. I have to say this is the only time I’ve ever thought I was smarter than you. You are the my mentor! it hurts so much that you can’t see the benefits to Bitcoin, please research more.

Hurt and learn, soldier. – Garth

#51 Dolce Vita on 12.10.20 at 4:44 pm

Garth, do no female dog slap me for this but the age old question for Economists has been:

What is money?

Milton Friedman tried to answer that with his paper:

“The Island Of Stone Money”

https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/friedman_images/Collections/2016c21/Stanford_02_01_1991.pdf

He concluded that:

“…how important “myth,” unquestioned belief, is in monetary matters. Our own money, the money we have grown up with, the system under which it is controlled, these appear real and rational to us”.

It’s in the “real” and “rational”. And the likening of that to the Gold Standard.

The Island and its money (Anthropologist “weighs” in):

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/02/15/131934618/the-island-of-stone-money?t=1607636103799

#52 Thomas on 12.10.20 at 4:52 pm

It all goes back to the (subjective) understanding of a human created concept: money.

For some, it is a medium of exchange
For others, it is something of value.

Invest only in what you understand: if software and encryption is not your thing, don’t go into Bitcoin

Being neither a reliable medium or exchange nor a proven storehouse of value, Bitcoin is only a speculative commodity. Pretending otherwise is, well, pretending – Garth

#53 Penny Henny on 12.10.20 at 4:59 pm

would you rather have 100 shares of doordash or 1 bitcoin, they are currently about equal in price.
Even though I have no interest in either I think having the bitcoin would be a wiser choice.

#54 HUNGRY BEAR on 12.10.20 at 5:09 pm

To #44 calgaryPhantom

NOTHING WRONG with being in ALL CASH.
Even Warren Buffett dissolved his entire portfolio in the early 70’s because the markets had nothing to offer.

You’ll be the one laughing when we get another March correction (and we will, we always do) and you pull out that Money Bazooka and unload.

Why follow a diversified B&D strategy when you get just get in, get out and be done with it.

————————————————————–
#44 calgaryPhantom on 12.10.20 at 4:00 pm
The writing is on the wall….
80% in cash as of end of November and plan to go 100% cash by year end. This will end badly. Will wake up to feast in few months

That is extreme and unwise. Stop being emotional – Garth

#55 BlogDog123 on 12.10.20 at 5:20 pm

Well, we all remember what happened to “PETS.COM” with their mascot, super bowl commercials and zero profits…

Frothy valuations bouyed from the ‘smart guys’ clicking ‘buy’ did not work out well in 1999-2001.

#56 UCC on 12.10.20 at 5:30 pm

#30 Tommy on 12.10.20 at 3:08 pm
Leftover said: “That’s a lot of cubicles”

Cubicles are so 1990s. Most modern offices have taken to the open office concept. Cubicles take up precious real estate space and undermine micromanaging managers so they’ve been on the out for many years now.
—————————

Open office concept is so 1920’s. Can’t hear myself think in that environment. Worst still private conversations are hard to have and you waste time looking for meeting space.

Done it all; cubicles, open concept, closed office. Its a closed office or WFH. Nothing else works…if your trying to work.

#57 David Pylyp on 12.10.20 at 5:31 pm

Just trying to make my way in the world and Invest a little in the markets;
Reading Voraciously, watching P/E Ratios, Adjusted my greed for dividends and refocused on Growth Long Term.

Oil Stocks Like Shell BP Enbridge should be a SAFE Buy… But they are not.

Companies like Tesla turn no profit and are P/E to the moon! The Battery stocks sound good but….

And Yes Now all the coffee chatter is the markets ….

UP UP UP

David Pylyp
Toronto

#58 Faron on 12.10.20 at 5:41 pm

Even more egregious are the names that are outright frauds and still catching bids:

Nikola’s founder was forced out due to fraudulent practice and the stock nearly doubled from there to end of November when news came out that GM was dropping their partnership. This is a company with no sales and no product.

Facebook (which is profitable) was subject to an anti trust suit by 48 states and the US feds yet its stock dropped a mere 1/4 percent today.

Tesla is up 50% in the past month on… um…. uh…. a P/E of 1200? On filing to sell more shares and dilute the price? Meanwhile more than a few suspect some lite book cooking therein.

When QE stops or rates rise or both, this whole thing is going to collapse. Bubbliest names the hardest.

I find Air Canada interesting. It’s stock is on a tear and is back to where it was in Jan, 2019 when the country was open and the economy was cooking right along. What value are the forward looking markets seeing that it should be priced any higher?

#59 espressobob on 12.10.20 at 5:44 pm

IPO I believe is an acronym for ‘ Its probably overpriced’ .

As for commodity plays, well, good luck with that as well.

#60 Cheese on 12.10.20 at 5:56 pm

#56 BlogDog123

THIS TIME, WILL BE DIFFERENT!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMOMTtAMBI

#61 Stratovarious on 12.10.20 at 6:01 pm

I remember an e-Trade commercial from the Dot.Com era where a secretary finished her day at work and drove off in her Lamborghini, earned of course from stock trades. It marked the top of the market. Perhaps RobinHood, DoorDash, etc represent the excess of this cycle and we are near the top.

As suggested by Howard (comment #1), when you grow cautious, we all should listen, since you have correctly played this cycle.

#62 Long-Time Lurker on 12.10.20 at 6:17 pm

>The previous “next big thing.”

Canopy Growth To Close More Marijuana Production Facilities, Cut Jobs In Canada
CONTRIBUTOR
RTTNews.com RTTNews
PUBLISHED
DEC 10, 2020 1:01AM EST

(RTTNews) – Canadian cannabis company Canopy Growth Corp. said Wednesday it is closing more production facilities in Canada, including its entire outdoor cannabis cultivation operations in the country, as part of efforts to streamline its operations and improve margins. The closure of these facilities will impact about 220 employees.

Canopy Growth will cease operations at St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador; Fredericton in New Brunswick; Edmonton in Alberta; and Bowmanville in Ontario. The company will also cease operations at its outdoor cannabis grow operations in Saskatchewan….

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/canopy-growth-to-close-more-marijuana-production-facilities-cut-jobs-in-canada-2020-12-10

#63 Catalyst on 12.10.20 at 6:18 pm

Let’s be real, its not the kiddos who are pumping an ipo premarket from 68 to 160 before the thing is even available to the public. I don’t claim to know who is doing it but I’m guessing its some internet or IPO etfs owned by big money that need to buy at any price. These IPOs are offering small float to make the mania to get a slice even greater. Where is the SEC???? Oh yeah, when it comes to ESG investing, no one cares about ‘S’ and doubly don’t care about ‘G’.

Let me give you and your ferrari driving homies an inside track to the herd mentality – go to reddit. It is where the unwashed trade hot stock tips, diamond hands advice (never sell), and anti-boomer stock picks/memes.

#64 I’m stupid on 12.10.20 at 6:25 pm

The market reminds me of a time when I did a focus group for the OLG. Basically I was given $250 to gamble with at woodbine casino. If I won I got to keep the $250 plus whatever I won, so no risk with free money. Once I finished gambling I’d have to go talk about my experience and was given another $250. Naturally I played the highest value slot machine to try to maximize my winnings.

Everyone is a wash with free money so that’s exactly what’s going on. Everyone is trying to maximize winnings. Once the taps get turned off the markets will do what they always do. Bulls make money, bears make money but pigs get slaughtered. We’re going to see a massive slaughtering soon.

#65 flop on 12.10.20 at 6:36 pm

“… or sports figure trading cards. It’s difficult to see how they can have value in the long run.” — have you consulted with Doug Rowat about that?

#66 nan on 12.10.20 at 6:40 pm

Our currency is backed by the power to tax. I think you know how potent that is. – Garth

The power to tax is backed by the willingness of people to provide goods and services for a sovereign currency collected as tax revenue. If the currency is losing value every day, so is an arms length market participants willingness to accept that currency in exchange for goods and services.

There is no absolute power in the power to tax without faith the tax revenue can be used to buy things later.

I am not necessarily pro bitcoin but generally, everyone needs to get rid of cash as soon as they can and hold stock in companies that make things people want and desirable real estate – their value is backed by the self interest of consumers – the most powerful and immutable force on earth.

#67 Tron Light on 12.10.20 at 6:41 pm

Fundamentals don’t matter anymore. People are in it to get rich quick – both the investor and the owner(s) of the business. It epitomizes the world we live in today – instant gratification.

Take Tesla and Netflix. Tesla being “profitable” is a misnomer. Check out their free cash flow. They have none. Neither does Netflix. They are basically broke and in debt up to their eyeballs but they are trendy companies for the millennials to invest in. AirBnB, DoorDash, Uber all the same thing.

The financialization of the economy will be its downfall. Nobody produces anything anymore. As someone else said, raising money was something that companies did to aid production, R & D, etc. Not anymore. As I said, IPOs are there to make the owners rich.

Although I do think Shopify has something to of value to offer but $170 billion???

#68 Nonplused on 12.10.20 at 6:49 pm

Well, the so-called “technical analysis” business (where you forecast stock prices by drawing lines on a chart) has been around for a long time, and it’s basically the same thing. Only now the kids can’t even be bothered with a pencil and a ruler, they just follow chat groups. It is almost as if they think that if they all work together they can push the snowball back up the mountain and it will stay there.

Of course all this activity gets folks like Bernie Sanders in a stich because he figures he should be able to somehow tax all these paper profits. But as I have said a hundred times before, shares are not money until they are sold. Doesn’t anybody remember Bre-X? Doug Casey and his subscribers made a fortune off of Bre-X but that is because once he decided it was to good to be true he issued a “sell” recommendation. You haven’t actually made any money until you do that part. Until then it is all just fancy numbers in your head or on a spreadsheet. How does that phrase go? “Nobody ever went broke selling at a profit.”

But it does boggle the mind how a company that is losing money hand over fist can double on the first day of trading. I guess that means investors (sic) think the business model will be enormously successful in the future, the next Facebook maybe. But it does raise a serious question: How did the investment bankers get the IPO price so wrong? Why did they not sell at double the price? It is in the company’s best interest (and the bankers’ too) to maximize the revenue from the IPO to fund all the various things. You don’t go placing an IPO at 50% off like a clearance sale.

Musk seems to have gotten the hang of things because as Tesla stock has been skyrocketing he has been selling into it. Who needs to turn a profit if billions can be made just by creating and selling more shares? They used to call that a Ponzi scheme but today it is known as “smart finance”.

#69 Linda on 12.10.20 at 6:56 pm

I can see why DoorDash was popular – lots of folks using it these days – but am very surprised that AirBnb is doing so well given current circumstances.

While I agree that the point & click investors are taking on a high level of risk, presumably at least some of them will end up ahead even as others get burned. I also think that 2021 has the potential to provide some very nice growth for those of us with B&D portfolios.

#70 binky barnes on 12.10.20 at 6:57 pm

Today my order of 1,000 glossy 8x10s of Mr. Justin Trudeau arrived at my door. I plan on travelling to our nation’s capital and staking out the PM. He must be used to signing important things, so surely he can plow through a stack of important photos in an afternoon.

They will be worth a small fortune on the open market. A much better bet than the investments espoused in today’s chat.

BB

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.10.20 at 6:57 pm

Door Dash booming during a pandemic.
When the vaccines are all distributed and everyone can go out to eat…….
Door Crash?

#72 theoryAndPractice on 12.10.20 at 7:06 pm

Be balanced. Be diversified. Be ready. This is real. -GT

I’m ready to leave.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjRI2h7gE90

#73 Balmuto on 12.10.20 at 7:09 pm

Bitcoin is not a store of value. Not yet anyways. Too volatile to make that claim.

It is a speculative asset. But that speculation is neither irrational nor unfounded.

Bitcoin is a serious potential competitor to government-controlled and issued fiat currencies. It’s a new form of fiat; decentralized and for the digital age.

No one can say what a Bitcoin is really worth, but it’s reasonable to assume given its limited supply that if it even gets to a 5% share of global transactions it could be worth many times what it is today.

It sees nowhere near that amount of usage today, of course. But widespread adoption could come more rapidly than most people expect. Disruption happens quickly in the digital age.

A couple of interesting recent developments: PayPal now accepts Bitcoin as a funding source for purchases, and Visa now offers a Bitcoin Rewards card. There are many other companies that now have Bitcoin reward programs or accept Bitcoin. Where was Bitcoin ten years ago – not just in terms of price, but in terms of adoption? Where will it be in another ten years?

#74 Nonplused on 12.10.20 at 7:11 pm

“Our currency is backed by the power to tax. I think you know how potent that is. – Garth”

I’m not sure I totally agree with that. Government bonds are backed by the power to tax, but I think the currency is backed by assets held by the central bank. Much of that is government bonds, so it is a bit of a positive feedback loop wherein both statements can be true at the same time. But yet the US Federal Reserve has stubbornly refused to divest its’ gold reserves, even though it is a tiny portion of their overall assets. All that gold piled up in a basement vault when we could all be blinged out like Mr. T. Why is gold still considered an asset by banks? They should just sell it all.

#75 Faron on 12.10.20 at 7:11 pm

Read a good quip today

“…People don’t fear the market going down anymore. They fear underperforming.” It’s a crash if you aren’t pulling in several 50% gaining trades a quarter.

Also interesting and notable is that the robinhooders are trading call options without a clue. These call squeezes are driving the rapid gains that get followed by precipitous drops.

Finally, in an interview of Atul Gawande (author of The Emperor of Maladies and member of Biden’s COVID task force) it was stressed that normalcy is still a long ways off. Be prepared for a possible market plop between now and end of ’21. Don’t sell, but be prepared for volatility. VIX aint done by a long shot. It seems the market is pretty caught up with itself and looking a bit too far forward.

#76 JR on 12.10.20 at 7:14 pm

Like most, this blog is referencing Bitcoin as a failure and never gonna work out. Garth you talk about Central Bank Crypto currencies, but are missing the point. Those will be mined (Pow) or have Staking (Pos) but be centralized and censorable.
Any real crypto will be immutable, and censorship resistant. Besides this one thing, Decentralized Finance (DEFI) is the next big thing. Just look at UniSwap, an exchange that pushes more volume than some stock markets.
Better get up to speed and onboard, or be left behind.

#77 Faron on 12.10.20 at 7:16 pm

Sorry, wrong author attribution there.

#78 The Dog Ate Your Lunch on 12.10.20 at 7:18 pm

Bricks and Mortar Are Crumbling Down.
Cities will have no one left in them.
Society is reorganizing itself around the computer screen and cell phone. If you have those you have the world at your finger tips.

#79 Nonplused on 12.10.20 at 7:23 pm

#14 Flop… on 12.10.20 at 2:06 pm

The various penalties are getting insane. CRA once issued me a $1000 fine because I did not send myself a T4, even though I reported all the transactions and paid all the taxes. I stay on top of that stuff more now, including having to once a year declare that no, I do not owe any HST, or face fines.

#80 Bill on 12.10.20 at 7:29 pm

Good one Garth! These fools are going to get a hard lesson. Their usually all in at the top as they can’t help themselves. We are a heard animal.
I’m a contrarian and buy smashed markets/stocks.
Agreed crypto is crap. Wouldn’t touch it with a barge poll. The stock market needed is on GREED and the opposite of March meltdown. High cash pos. is OK with me…
I sold US stocks that I had for maybe a month at 25 to 125% returns. Here’s some prudent advice.

“Remember that we were screaming “SELL!” in January, “BUY” mid-March, and now we’re sounding the alarm again. Each time totally counter to what seemed to be going on. We’d love to be holding quality stocks longer, within sane markets, but we’re not going to complain about such mass short-term gains … rather we’ll book them as we’ve done all year.”
YUP

Who voted for this idiot? I would like to have a talk.
Hes doing things you can’t believe. Its traitorous activity.
We could be CCP state soon and that’s not even a stretch.
Its way worse then this article but I didn’t want to post it. You can certainly search it but it may scare you. The heads of our military didn’t want to train the CCP army T2 Made them.. Scary stuff.

#81 Yuus bin Haad on 12.10.20 at 7:29 pm

#65 flop

yes, and I still haven’t heard back about the Carl Brewer ’64-65 Topps that I offered up

#82 westcdn on 12.10.20 at 7:35 pm

I haven’t seen a comment from Sail Away in quite a while. I figure three possibilities.

His dogs killed him.

His wife got mad at him.

The powers that be told him to shut up.

My money is on three.

You win. – Garth

#83 Bella Horrida on 12.10.20 at 7:41 pm

There is no regulator and its very existence is threatened by romping computing power.

I’m sure the FATF, Fed and others would be interested to learn that. While you are right about CBDCs, it’s unlikely these will ever fully replace crypto. It’s also unlikely that crypto will remain unregulated for very much longer – please see recent reports from these bodies. Arguably that will diminish crypto’s attractions but many analysts still see “pure” crypto being used in 1-5% of global transactions in 5-10 years’ time (marginal, yes – but still there). The attraction is transaction speed & use in wallets for crossborder. Cheers and keep up the good work.

#84 Bill on 12.10.20 at 7:42 pm

#78 Nonplused on 12.10.20 at 7:23 pm

A bunch of crooks and incompetent A holes.
My Accountant missed getting a T5 for $5000 to CRA.
5 months later they assessed a $2500 penalty….
I wrote to them and they wrote back and accused me of intentionally of not paying. I was pissed, after paying $100,000+++ in taxes every year religiously. My accountant called then to say we have paid mega in GST from my 2 business’s and always on time…Nope to bad so sad.
I gott’m back big time and they will never know…I despise them.
Screw me once…..you will get it back 4 fold..lol

#85 Bill on 12.10.20 at 7:44 pm

Missed the article on the T2 move

No, I deleted it. – Garth

#86 Barb on 12.10.20 at 7:46 pm

“…Beanie Babies”

and Chia Pets.

#87 Pete from St. Cesaire on 12.10.20 at 7:50 pm

Our currency is backed by the power to tax. I think you know how potent that is. – Garth
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
That’s like someone saying “my tulip bulbs are valuable because I can force you to acquire more of them”. Remember, Zimbabwe had the power not only to tax but to confiscate property without compensation.

#88 C V on 12.10.20 at 7:57 pm

The comments on robin hoodies is priceless Garth, I like it. I do think something like that breeds volatility like never before. Especially with some freshly printed money flowing about. But who will mop up all those profits as the nooby traders get wrecked? Institutions of course.

Btw… bitcoin is in no way threatened by computer power. Anyone who believes that just spend 5 minutes on google

#89 Stone on 12.10.20 at 8:01 pm

Be balanced. Be diversified. Be ready. This is real.

———

Check. Check. Check. And check. 11.28% YTD. Good times.

#90 TurnerNation on 12.10.20 at 8:02 pm

#125 DON on 12.09.20 at 10:41 pm
I read his bio but it was a while ago and from the 80s.

Jimmy: An Autobiography
by Jimmy Pattison | Oct 1 1987

…..

So…all of Kanada has to be shut down by Christmastime.
Troops on the streets by Jan?
Some people believe this all is about our health.

#91 Pete from St. Cesaire on 12.10.20 at 8:03 pm

All stock market investing is gambling. There’s no skill involved on the part of the investor; unless they’re skilled at getting solid information that others don’t have and that’s called insider trading. Even trying to evaluate trends and make predictions is little more than “counting cards”.
For the past decade the hyperinflation (due to QE# 1-4 etc) has been hidden inside the super-inflated stock markets (and, especially in Canada, the housing bubble).

#92 Dreymont on 12.10.20 at 8:03 pm

Love your content Garth but you couldn’t be more wrong about Bitcoin. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoin in the world, a fixed supply. Central banks print money like its nothing. Multiple institutions are buying it up, including Paypal, which has caused the run up this time.

#93 The Limited Sage on 12.10.20 at 8:06 pm

Early thirty-something here.

One of the group chats I’m in with friend’s focuses on “Investing”, and I’ve noticed a lot more daily chatter in it lately. Make no mistake, Wealth Simple Trade is Canada’s equivalent to Robinhood.

Guys who never cared for “investing” are suddenly opening up TFSAs and buying Venture stocks like they’re holiday chocolates… NUMI, WELL, DOC; you name it it’s bought. Meanwhile, others are chasing day one momentum in DASH and ABNB without even knowing what Norbert’s Gambit is.

This is the modern day shoe shiner.

#94 TurnerNation on 12.10.20 at 8:08 pm

WFH? Hold up. Maybe this pathetic weblog is on to something.

…..
The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that Amazon has signed new leases in central Toronto just months after e-commerce rival Shopify quietly expanded its own postpandemic floor space in the city, even as major corporate tenants retreat amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The Globe’s Josh O’Kane and Rachelle Younglai write that the Seattle e-commerce giant has taken another 100,000 square feet in two buildings in the south part of Toronto’s financial district. … Amazon confirmed Wednesday it is taking new space in office buildings in which it already has leases. It comes after Shopify, whose chief executive officer recently declared the end of “office centricity,” agreed to lease more space at its new building in Toronto. In June, Shopify exercised its option to take another 90,000 square feet of space at the Well, a huge new development, bringing its total to 340,000 square feet.

The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that Dream Office REIT is betting on the future of downtown Toronto. The Globe’s Alex Bozikovic writes that Dream has applied to build a 310-metre office and residential complex at 212 King St. W., on the edge of the financial district. The tower would be among the tallest buildings in the city. Designed by SHoP Architects of New York, the 79-storey tower would include 660,000 square feet of office space and 588 residential rental units. The base would include 10,000 square feet of retail and restaurant space in portions of three heritage-protected loft buildings. The owner of one building, privately held Humbold Properties, is partnering with Dream on the project. Despite the project emerging amid COVID-19, Dream chief executive officer Michael Cooper is confident that Toronto’s core will rebound and remain attractive for living and working after the pandemic. Dream’s assets are already heavily concentrated in downtown Toronto. …
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

#95 Linda on 12.10.20 at 8:09 pm

#75 ‘Faron’ – so can we take it the markets will end up like RE – overpriced with FOMO investors bidding stocks up to insane valuations regardless of actual worth? Will we soon be bombarded with posts by would be investors bemoaning the fact they are ‘priced out of the market’?

#96 Sara on 12.10.20 at 8:10 pm

#82 westcdn on 12.10.20 at 7:35 pm
I haven’t seen a comment from Sail Away in quite a while. I figure three possibilities.

His dogs killed him.

His wife got mad at him.

The powers that be told him to shut up.

My money is on three.

You win. – Garth

==========================

Actually, we all win. :)

#97 short horses on 12.10.20 at 8:13 pm

It’s not just that Robinhood users can buy & sell for nothing — other US trading platforms have dropped fees as well. It’s that the Robinhood trading interface is gamified.

Until recently (I think this changed after some young traders killed themselves), Robinhood users traded based on whatever was most popular — because this was just about the only “research” available on the platform — and options contracts were as easy as trading stocks. WealthSimple Trade is Canada’s closest equivalent but there are at least some limits.

Ultimately, gamification and no-fee trading of fractional shares will allow a lot young Canadians to experience what could only be felt in casinos.

#98 the Jaguar on 12.10.20 at 8:16 pm

After the giant wave of schadenfreude washed over me reading the first paragraph detailing the $700 million Airbnb loss I wondered if I should feel contrition. After all, these are just peeps trying to make a buck. That lasted as long as a fart in a hurricane as I came to my senses and recalled all the misery short term rentals have created for neighbours who have the bad luck to be in close proximity to them. I refer primarily to the condo variety, not the loving cottages for rent in places like England. (wink!). Besides, contrition never was my strong suit. (wink!).

I would never consider ordering food from any door to door food delivery service unless it was a pizza, and that would be highly scrutinized. Learn to cook, people. Whole foods, quality meals and nutrition for your body , “your temple.” I don’t mind a little online shopping for some items, but Jaguars like to ‘paw’ possible acquisitions for quality and authenticity. We’re creatures of a tactile persuasion. Felix can explain it to you.

I’m musing over Fishman’s comment as he enjoyed his morning coffee outdoors ( I’m giving that personal attribute 3 thumbs up, by the way)..”Hows work going I ask? Oh! I’m not doing that anymore. I’m making four times the money playing the stock market.”
Isn’t that more or less what the stripper said about how many rental properties she owned in the movie “The Big Short”?
What a crashing bore. Imagine,…spending your entire waking moments on your cell phone. It’s like Gollum with “The Precious”. With all the Spyware on phones and other devices these days it must be quite the tangled web of privacy invasion and whatnot.

As Jodie Foster remarked in her acceptance speech at the Golden Globes way back in 2013… “Privacy. Some day, in the future, people will look back and remember how beautiful it once was.” Makes one want to rush out and buy a Pine Phone. Mercy.

#99 Stan Brooks on 12.10.20 at 8:19 pm

The first thing I heard when I got in the business, not from my mentor, was bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. I’m here to tell you I was a pig. And I strongly believe the only way to make long-term returns in our business that are superior is by being a pig.”

Stanley Druckenmiller

#100 Oracle of Ottawa on 12.10.20 at 8:32 pm

Irrational exuberance once again. This sure brings me back to the year 2000. And we know what happened to 99% of those dot coms.

#101 Doghouse Dweller on 12.10.20 at 8:44 pm

#74 Nonplused
Why is gold still considered an asset by banks?
———————————————————
Because when you transact beyond your boarders, all the other bankers are not interested in pieces of paper/plastic with pictures of dead politicians.
They want tangible assets and shiny rocks are at the top of their list.
It`s been that way since Babylon and wishfull MMT thinking will not change that fact.

#102 Faron on 12.10.20 at 8:53 pm

#95 Linda on 12.10.20 at 8:09 pm

#75 ‘Faron’ – so can we take it the markets will end up like RE – overpriced with FOMO investors bidding stocks up to insane valuations regardless of actual worth? Will we soon be bombarded with posts by would be investors bemoaning the fact they are ‘priced out of the market’?

First, I am an amateur, so you shouldn’t listen to me. Second, I’ll assume that wasn’t a jab.

But, w/re 1, I think many individual stocks are there. These things are boiling. They swell rapidly then pop and go back down as another blooms. Indexes +- but the S&P 500 is really heavy in a few names. I still think value, equal weight or low vol broad ETFs will be good to have if the rats start jumping off the sinking ship. I think Garth and co. have people in low vol ETFs among other cushions.

w/re 2. Nope. Fractional shares. Or ETFs holding growthy names. Better yet, fractional shares of ETFs that trade commission free. You could invest $100 and be B+D. That’s the potential upside to the new wave of discount brokerages.

#103 Axehead on 12.10.20 at 8:58 pm

This is what happens when people are given free money. They have no respect for it, thus it is easily gambled away without remorse of loss.

#104 willworkforpickles on 12.10.20 at 9:10 pm

There is this endemic naivety among most people in NA assuming the so called powers that be will remedy – even solve the worsening debt fiasco that is far out of control and beyond any possible chance of a fix.
NA societal ills and evils can only and will worsen as our countries disintegrate from within over the next ten or so years.
The onerous belief that we can inflate our way out of debt is merely a justification for not ever fixing the problem before it all gets far beyond too late to do so.
As NA falls apart and steadily weakens, our real enemies will grow stronger and will continue hence forth…with foreign military invasion ending the eventually greatly weakened US and Canadian diminished sovereignty by force.
Governments and our society will stumble along getting worse with every passing year.
The 20% affluent members of NA who remain aloof and mostly unaware of the other 80% who exist a hair away from financial crisis will soon enough be writing a different tune.
It’s all too well known this government can’t fix any problems but will only continue to make things worse.
It’s a no-brainer the next one won’t fare much better in the mess that’s ahead.
So why do all the rose colored glasses wearers assume things can only get better with such extreme ineptitude, corruption and lies prevailing.
As individuals we can but soldier on helping ourselves and those around us.

#105 Dog Breath on 12.10.20 at 9:19 pm

It is said that Joseph Kennedy (JFK father) said that he knew it was time to get out of the stock market back in 1929 when shoeshine boys (remember them) started to give him stock tips. I guess that the teenagers on Robinhood would be comparable today. Time to get out!!

#106 Phylis on 12.10.20 at 9:29 pm

The nice thing about crypto is that there are so many of them to choose from and if interested, any one can create their own.

#107 Trudi Woods on 12.10.20 at 9:30 pm

When my lawyer account and you tell me the same thing.. think I’ll stay with the pack of educated financial folks…many thanks to all 3..

#108 willworkforpickles on 12.10.20 at 9:40 pm

Forget what the banks did in 2008/2009 … Forget what they did in 2000…But do remember what they did in 1980 when they jacked interest rates 10% to near 20% …measures taken to end stagflation then.
How will they deal with stagflation coming in the 2020’s.

#109 Phylis on 12.10.20 at 9:46 pm

#92 Dreymont on 12.10.20 at 8:03 pm And how many satoshis is that? Don’t forget the branching either.

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.10.20 at 9:50 pm

@#92 Sara
“Actually, we all win. :)”

++++

Now now Sara.
Gloating isnt very lady like.

I miss Sail Away’s intelligent replys….always good for a laugh..

#111 Diamond Dog on 12.10.20 at 10:25 pm

#42 Dolce Vita on 12.10.20 at 4:00 pm

First, I like what you say. – DV

Thanks!

Second, Scott needs to know immunity after 31 days of the first jab. – DV

There will be a delay for full efficacy… I’m hearing its in the low 50%’s until the 2nd booster shot but it’s difficult to say. I highly doubt that that full efficacy is 90+% as non peer viewed, low participation number interim results suggest with both Pfizer and Moderna, especially with skin color only 2/3rd’s represented in their trials and regional information not publicly reported from what I’ve seen (coastal fishing areas would steer results in their favor). Included were trial ages down to 14 years old (younger would be more likely to remain asymptomatic to exposure also slanting numbers in favor the vaccine) and excluded were immune compromised participants (would likely be just under 2% of the gen pop, the most vulnerable demographic to catch Covid19). In short, efficacy won’t be what Pfizer & Moderna says it is, best guess is still somewhere in the 70’s, thinking low 70’s more than high.

Third, the USA is not the World. – DV

Yup. But if you were bringing a nation to a Covid19 ugly nation contest, the U.S. would win the prize. :D

Fourth, no one knows what the herd immunity number is, 50%, 60%, 70% of the population, or more? – DV

Yeah, but one can use flu numbers to give us some semblance of an idea of what we need to control the spread to the point where confirmed cases drop significantly enough to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed or even better, resume full services easing restrictions to our economy and way of life. There is strong evidence to suggest we’ll get there with herd immunity @ +30%. As herd immunity gets from 30+ to 35%, its spread drops off quite quickly, at least with the flu. This is where Scott is getting his assumption from and I think its a fairly good comparison to make for expectations. Vaccinating front liners and high risk groups is also a big deal, reducing spread.

Fifth, Canada’s “guesstimate” at vaccination (CTV National News last night) – no comment, numbers self-explanatory: -DV https://i.imgur.com/smk8tmD.png

Voluntary adult vaccines, I’m hoping for and expecting the participation rate to be around 50% in Canada by the end of next year, less in the U.S. . We’re more used to the idea here in Canada, 36% participation rate with flu shots in 2017, upped to 38.5% in 2018 and 42% last year. There was a 70% participation rate with seniors last year.

The incentive to get Covid shots are higher for the elderly and middle aged, but not so much for the young. This can change though with incentives to take the shot. If, for example, a dentist or doctor won’t see you unless you get vaxxed, or any other kind of professional, participation rates will go up. There is nothing unethical with, say, a professional working in enclosed spaces requesting proof of vaccination before an appointment is made. It could be where this is going, we’d like to see high numbers voluntarily but there is no shame in helping it along. I’m certain provincial governments are looking at this now.

We’re creatures of habit, you get most people into the habit of a vaccine when needed and it becomes much less of a big deal in the future. Even so, 50% participation with 70 to 75% efficacy is enough to return the economy to some kind of normalcy but if the vaccine lasted effectively enough for 2.5 years or 3 seasons between shots, vaccine participation could reach high 60’s or higher by 2021-22 flu season effectively keeping Covid19 in the media as an afterthought. That would be nice.

Scott is an Optimist, the World needs more like him. – DV

Yes, I like him for several reasons. Scott is high information and sensitive to the messaging, an excellent communicator which is what his role requires. There’s also a humanitarian component to Scott, some of the conclusions he’s made, he’s thought it through on several levels. Cheers DV.

#112 Uncle Charlie on 12.10.20 at 10:35 pm

I think we set a record. No comments yet on COVID. :)

Re: Bitcoin – I nearly bought one BTC when it was under $1,000 but decided not to for some reason. Maybe not a great decision but at that time it seemed really hard to sell BTC here in Canada. It didn’t seem very liquid, to say the least. That’s probably changed but I missed the boat on that opportunity. Having said that, it’s too volatile for my liking anyway.

As far as digital currency is concerned, isn’t all money these days pretty much digital currency? Cashless is coming very soon anyway, and at that point all currency will be 100% digital.

#113 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.10.20 at 10:36 pm

#79 Nonplused on 12.10.20 at 7:23 pm
#14 Flop… on 12.10.20 at 2:06 pm

The various penalties are getting insane. CRA once issued me a $1000 fine because I did not send myself a T4, even though I reported all the transactions and paid all the taxes. I stay on top of that stuff more now, including having to once a year declare that no, I do not owe any HST, or face fines.
————
In my days I did income tax and accounting work for some engineers
I always was amazed that the people we trust with building our bridges, have problems filling out a simple tax return.
Or maybe they were just stubborn like Nonplussed.
My advise is always: Never mess with the CRA.
Once you’re on their radar, they are hanging on your ass like a pit bull.

#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.10.20 at 10:47 pm

#85 Bill on 12.10.20 at 7:44 pm
Missed the article on the T2 move

No, I deleted it. – Garth
————–
Garth,
You are in a generous mood today.

#115 Linda on 12.10.20 at 10:52 pm

#102 ‘Faron’ – definitely not a jab! Your comment just spurred the thought that it might be worth my while to review some history re: previous market crashes or popped bubbles, investor behavior prior to same.

Thanks for the reminder regarding fractional shares. Had forgotten those are now a thing. Really when one thinks about it, the parallels between RE & the market really do exist. Fractional shares could be regarded as the equivalent of a condo. More than enough reason not to buy one as far as I’m concerned!

#116 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.10.20 at 10:53 pm

#95 Linda on 12.10.20 at 8:09 pm
#75 ‘Faron’ – so can we take it the markets will end up like RE – overpriced with FOMO investors bidding stocks up to insane valuations regardless of actual worth? Will we soon be bombarded with posts by would be investors bemoaning the fact they are ‘priced out of the market’?
————-
Owning stocks is not a necessity.
A roof over your head is.

#117 Doghouse Dweller on 12.10.20 at 11:04 pm

#76 JR
What do you do when your mined (Pow) Staking (Pos) immutable, and censorship resistant crypto dies on one of those cheap thumb
drives or SDcards ? Do you have to store it on cloud 9 with your password ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tp1MRAUw4Uk

#118 Pandemic my derriere on 12.10.20 at 11:14 pm

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/raymond-j-de-souza-ottawas-secret-plan-to-host-chinese-military-while-ignoring-the-two-michaels-makes-for-chilling-reading

Is this the six or seven major scandal the liberals and Trudeau are in the middle of?? This one is bordering TREASON actually.

When in a decade from now the Canadian sheeple will be “slaves” to the CCP, Garth will remember this post.

Let’s see Garth, do u call yourself a Canadian, what does it even mean these days??

I am an immigrant and I believed in this country a long time ago but now I see it sold down the river by its rotten elites that I despise profoundly.

I don’t care if u post this or not, but if u don’t u will be a tiny Chinese agent of influence..QED

#119 millmech on 12.11.20 at 12:00 am

#58 Faron
Why would you buy Air Canada now, double from its March lows, should be selling now, not buying, NIO about a year ago was about $2.50 share, 30k at that time is worth more than 500k now.
As for Tesla cooking the books can you provide a link please, if true I will be buying 100k in Puts on it.
Bought a little company last month on TSXV, for literally pennies and have watched it consistently surge up double digits since then. They are even now acquiring their competitors now and will be even more profitable long term , up almost 3k every week for the last 3 weeks, not bad for a 3k investment.

#120 Bob Dog on 12.11.20 at 12:38 am

It’s interesting how the previous minister of finance sees all sorts of problems that the current minister of finance is blind to.

Looks like the big G is realizing just how corrupt and evil his own government is.

The funny thing about the current left vs right insanity in both USA and Canada is that voting and elections are meaningless. The world is controlled by central bankers and corporations.

The day of the guillotines will come . It’s just a matter of time.

#121 Nonplused on 12.11.20 at 12:47 am

#101 Doghouse Dweller on 12.10.20 at 8:44 pm
#74 Nonplused
Why is gold still considered an asset by banks?
———————————————————
Because when you transact beyond your boarders, all the other bankers are not interested in pieces of paper/plastic with pictures of dead politicians.
They want tangible assets and shiny rocks are at the top of their list.
It`s been that way since Babylon and wishfull MMT thinking will not change that fact.

——————————

Sorry Doghouse, the question was somewhat rhetorical.

All paper assets need a physical backing of some sort, and taxes aren’t enough unless they can take your income or your physical assets. But then they have to sell them. But to whom??

#122 ALL FOR WHAT??? on 12.11.20 at 1:01 am

BITCOIN, crypto, and blockchain is beyond Turner Investments’ intellectual comprehension.

But I guess the BILLIONAIRES such as Stan D, Paul T Jones, Paypal, Microstrategy, etc got it wrong.

And fake fiat currency is backed up by what??? A failed governments promise……

https://amp.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8nwpo9/i_made_an_infographic_there_are_152_fiat/

We can bring back the horse and buggy and vinyl records too since your on a roll.

#123 Dave on 12.11.20 at 1:36 am

It’s popular to lament about stock market being overvalued or undervalued but Garth knows that EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis) received Nobel price for a reason and it postulates that, generally speaking, effective markets (and our markets can be assumed effective) are priced correctly.
https://www.ft.com/content/78175d1e-34c7-11e3-8148-00144feab7de

#124 calgaryPhantom on 12.11.20 at 2:49 am

The writing is on the wall….
80% in cash as of end of November and plan to go 100% cash by year end. This will end badly. Will wake up to feast in few months

That is extreme and unwise. Stop being emotional – Garth

————————————————————————————————-

Maybe extreme but definitely not emotional, rather calculated. Been invested throughout, during all hickups (2014,2018 and 2020) thnx partly to your repetitive blog posts around this topic.

Too much future seems to be priced in by the markets and I would rather be wrong selling into a rally than the other way round.

#125 Janice Poole on 12.11.20 at 5:29 am

DELETED

#126 BillyBob on 12.11.20 at 6:59 am

#146 Dharma Bum on 12.10.20 at 9:16 am
#139 Billy Bob

I am not a pilot, I am a former pilot.
——————————————————————–

Billy Bob got out while the gittin’ was still good.

Pilots used to have it pretty good. They were even well respected by the public for their skill and training. One could be proud to be a pilot.

Today, they’re treated like Ralph Kramden. Underpaid and under respected.

I’m happy to hear that Billy Bob is now leading the Dharma Bum life. Enjoy!

Timing is everything.

==============================

Thanks DB. In the interests of full disclosure, my “former” status wasn’t by choice, it was by Covid-19. And if the right opportunity presents, I would consider returning to the field, because I actually enjoyed flying big planes around the world. As I tell folks, I’m too young to retire, too old to start over in a job requiring actual work! :-)

But I am also enjoying the fruits of many years of hard graft, saving and investing via Garth’s principles, and taking it easy on the sidelines. The “FU” money was banked years ago. Of course I didn’t know there would be a global pandemic shutting down 90% of international traffic, but I always knew I’d need it.

I am still proud to be a pilot, professionally or not I’ll never stop flying. Forget the politics and the tech, the sensation of flight is just too enjoyable to ever give up. Heading out to the sig other’s parents home outside Prague this weekend, and if the weather’s nice enough will go sightseeing in a Zlin operating from a grass strip.

“Timing is everything”.

I would respectfully submit, that far more important than timing, is attitude. Can’t control the former, but the latter is completely up to one’s choices.

#127 Andrew on 12.11.20 at 7:15 am

Your bitcoin posts are always the best lol I can’t wait for the capitulation post. Health and wealth to all, onwards!

#128 "The Fed" on 12.11.20 at 7:35 am

There are no investors left in the market – there is only Fed. And market is no more – centrally planned economy in which big five will not survice without inflated national currency and a ‘forward guidance’, aka insider trading. Centrally planned economy is not our strength, and China knows this game much, much better than we do.

And all the roads jam up with credit
And there’s nothing you can do
It’s all just bits of paper
Flying away from you…

https://youtu.be/iUekxY01XOc

#129 George on 12.11.20 at 7:51 am

My son sent me these introductory podcasts on BitCoin. I must say I have been highly skeptical, but after listening I concede these are some highly intelligent folks. Regardless of the efficacy of the protocol I will be interested in monitoring the space.

https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/

#130 Phylis on 12.11.20 at 7:57 am

Bitcoin is truly a game. There is plenty of money in it. It is a global game. Pay to own a piece of a public ledger. The ledger has no value other that the rules it contains as to its security. If you agree that that is valuable, let the games begin. Beware, a new ledger can be created at any time.

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 8:22 am

@#116 Pandemic

“I am an immigrant and I believed in this country a long time ago but now I see it sold down the river by its rotten elites that I despise profoundly”

+++

Sad but true enough.
The Trudeau Liberals care nothing about what the grubby taxpayers want.
They are busy, so busy reshaping Canada in their politically correct, gender equality, green, (and ultimately) bankrupt image.

Once the last item of value has been sold off or put in hock and the country is truly, irreplaceably bankrupt…..then , their work is done.

Time for Pierre Poliviere once again to hammer the libs in Parliament over another scandal?

Since the Conservatives “Leader” seems invisible to all?

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 8:25 am

@#124 Billy Bob

“that far more important than timing, is attitude. Can’t control the former, but the latter is completely up to one’s choices.”

+++++

As a pilot you could also swap “attitude” for “altitude” and that statement would still be correct.

#133 Andrew on 12.11.20 at 8:29 am

#130 Phylis

I can create a social media network called Bookface tomorrow, it doesn’t mean anyone is going to join it.

Perhaps wise to do some deeper learning on network effects. All the best

#134 Love_The_Cottage on 12.11.20 at 8:32 am

#129 George on 12.11.20 at 7:51 am
My son sent me these introductory podcasts on BitCoin. I must say I have been highly skeptical, but after listening I concede these are some highly intelligent folks.
__________
Bernie Madoff is highly intelligent too.

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 8:36 am

Yoo Hoo!
Jane24.

You might want to hold off buying that house in Northern France…..until the economy tanks.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/12/11/brexit-sends-ripples-of-uncertainty-down-frances-coast/

#136 the Jaguar on 12.11.20 at 8:41 am

Good article by Terence Corcoran in this morning’s post. Timely given expected announcements today from the Feds….
Excerpts”

….Shell’s CEO, Ben van Beurden, has already publicly pointed to the reality that fossil fuels will be a major part of the company’s business and the world’s energy needs for decades to come.
Why do so many allegedly market- driven profit- seeking executives ritually sign on to the ESG movement? A Wall Street Journal commentary this week by an economist at Texas Tech University argues that the profit motive “keeps corporate leaders honest.” He wonders why prominent executives sign on to the Great Reset. “Some people within the organizations may simply prefer that firms take politically correct stances and don’t consider the cost. Others may think it looks good in a press release and will never go anywhere.”
One of the full- time celebrity intellectuals most CEOs would fear to cross is Mark Carney, former central bank governor and now a roving UN powercrat whose new life mission is to replace the freedom-based and market-driven Adam Smith and Milton Friedman global economic model.
That kind of slick economic argument no doubt scares off business executives……..

#137 theoryAndPractice on 12.11.20 at 8:41 am

#46 Dolce Vita on 12.10.20 at 4:19 pm

He could have achieved same result with 450m walk in Canada :).

#138 Pillboy on 12.11.20 at 8:57 am

I agree that people FOMO’ing on stocks will end badly, especially for those who don’t size their plays and don’t do homework. This is especially true for those who get advice from you tubers and stock forums, and then engage in derivatives play off those bets. r/WallstreetBets if you want a taste of it.

I however disagree with your thesis that Tesla was caused by hoodies. It’s been clear as day from the very beginning that there was a coordinated attack on it. Even if you look at it today, it’s absolute financial suicide to listen to analysts without doing due diligence. JP Morgan analyst downgrades the stock, yet their investment arm INCREASED their holding many times over based on the 13-F filings. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both upgrade the stock, and then the following week a stock offering occurs.

Some time ago I gave the advice when fossil fuel assets were depressed, that instead of adding those to a B&D portfolio, it was better to dedicate a portion of the portfolio to seemingly riskier plays. For years I’ve been following Tesla, telling those around me of exciting developments and what it meant. Very few actually followed my advice or even engaged in a discussion about the merits of it as an investment. That’s too bad, because all the B&D investors will now be buying in when S&P 500 inclusion takes place next Friday, at a price point well over 15x of my entry price.

Everything with FOMO is essentially because of this one stock, hence all the EV plays with QuantumScape, NIO, LI, XPENG, Workhorse, Lordstown. Everyone thinks all EVs are the same, all Lithium Ion batteries are the same, but it’s not. Very few will dig into the nitty gritty. It will be very ugly when a correction takes place, because it’ll carry into all the other FOMO names.

#139 FriedEggs on 12.11.20 at 8:58 am

The countries that rule the world just happen to have the biggest gold reserves. With our 0.000 tonnes – Canada has zero saved for a rainy day.

3,000+ years of relevance just doesnt go away

#140 the Jaguar on 12.11.20 at 9:01 am

#146 Dharma Bum on 12.10.20 at 9:16 am
#139 Billy Bob

Dharma Bum, have you gone a little Meshuggah on us?

Air Canada Flight 143 is but one amazing feat of airmanship by many who fly us safely around the world. Some of those pilots are quite fetching as well. Not long ago I boarded the UP Express shuttle to Pearson Airport in Toronto and next to me was the most handsome young pilot I have ever seen. In his crisp uniform I watched as he cast watchful glances over his flight bags. I cast watchful glances over him, thinking ‘Oh my, here is Captain Ross. Wonder if he believes in love at first sight?’ I couldn’t detect his airline from any insignia, but it wasn’t either of our two domestic carriers.

#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 9:29 am

More good economic news from Jane24’s Jolly Old Blighty.

Well lets see how popular British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in 12 months.

Political dithering with massive economic fallouts.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu/no-deal-on-brexit-trade-very-very-likely-british-pm-johnson-says-idUSKBN28L0NR

#142 mick McClean on 12.11.20 at 9:57 am

The CEO where I work moved all staff out of cubicles and into a huge late 1800s factory floor in Liberty Village. Staff were assigned a spot on a long table with a handy 8 ft or so between. Only very senior peeps and HR people got an office. The rationale was to create an energetic “buzz” and it worked! Hard to emulate that energy WFH. In the last couple of days I’ve learned a lot about Robin Hood, Bre-x (what a story glad I didn’t get in) plus Shopify, Bitcoin and watched that great “Push” documentary. Thanks again for hosting this blog Garth.

#143 IHCTD9 on 12.11.20 at 10:05 am

#140 the Jaguar on 12.11.20 at 9:01 am
#146 Dharma Bum on 12.10.20 at 9:16 am
#139 Billy Bob

Dharma Bum, have you gone a little Meshuggah on us?

Air Canada Flight 143 is but one amazing feat of airmanship by many who fly us safely around the world. Some of those pilots are quite fetching as well. Not long ago I boarded the UP Express shuttle to Pearson Airport in Toronto and next to me was the most handsome young pilot I have ever seen. In his crisp uniform I watched as he cast watchful glances over his flight bags. I cast watchful glances over him, thinking ‘Oh my, here is Captain Ross. Wonder if he believes in love at first sight?’ I couldn’t detect his airline from any insignia, but it wasn’t either of our two domestic carriers.
___

Don’t tell me – he had a nice “caboose” right?

#144 Millennial 1%er on 12.11.20 at 10:08 am

>crypto is useless

Really? Have you ever tried to buy LSD with your credit card?

#145 IHCTD9 on 12.11.20 at 10:14 am

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.10.20 at 9:50 pm
@#92 Sara
“Actually, we all win. :)”

++++

Now now Sara.
Gloating isnt very lady like.

I miss Sail Away’s intelligent replys….always good for a laugh..
___

Me too. Good stories as well, hunting, fishing, foraging…

SA if you’re reading this – stop *&%$#@* around out there in the bush, and get back on here!

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.20 at 10:20 am

My my my.
News media all over the world are picking up the story about Trudeau and the Chinese Army.

Israel, India, England, etc etc etc.
Tsk, Tsk. Tsk.
Our Canadian reputation suffers because of Trudeau’s foreign policy dalliances, kow towing to a Communist Dictatorship.

No wonder the two Michaels are still rotting in a Chinese prison ( two years today!) with a rank amateur like Trudeau negotiating their release.
One wonders how quickly China would react if we actually ( horrors) detained Meng in a jail instead of her posh Shaunessy Mansion??

Poor Trudeau.
No one understands how hard he works at creating new scandals on a monthly basis.

Perhaps now the Liberal voters of Atlantic Canada, Quebec and Ontario will finally realize what an absolute group of amateurs we currently have running country?

#147 Sara on 12.11.20 at 10:48 am

#145 IHCTD9 on 12.11.20 at 10:14 am
#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.10.20 at 9:50 pm
@#92 Sara
“Actually, we all win. :)”

++++

Now now Sara.
Gloating isnt very lady like.

I miss Sail Away…
___

Me too.

=============================

Me three! Sort of. At the risk of not appearing “ladylike”, I must admit I got a rush beating him at his own game. $h!+ disturbers have that effect on me.

#148 Doghouse Dweller on 12.11.20 at 10:55 am

121 Nonplused
Sorry Doghouse, the question was somewhat rhetorical.
———————————————————-
Yes I thought it might be. Agreed, the power to tax an unemployed debt
saturated population is not worth much in currency terms.
Our mayor here in Bread and Circus Niagara Falls is experiencing what happens when your entire tax base evaporates. I imagine they will be
coming for our property soon. They were tax gouging even before the crisis.

#149 KLNR on 12.11.20 at 11:01 am

@#96 Sara on 12.10.20 at 8:10 pm
#82 westcdn on 12.10.20 at 7:35 pm
I haven’t seen a comment from Sail Away in quite a while. I figure three possibilities.

His dogs killed him.

His wife got mad at him.

The powers that be told him to shut up.

My money is on three.

You win. – Garth

thx Garth, we all appreciate it.

#150 Doug in London on 12.11.20 at 11:07 am

I think I’ll stick to the old fashioned bore you to tears strategy of buying stocks or ETFs that are on sale like REITs, pipelines, and oil companies were in October. After buying, I’ll patiently wait, let the dividends roll in, and maybe sell some off if the price goes way up and buy something else that’s on sale.

#151 Tommy on 12.11.20 at 11:32 am

@Crowdedelevatorfartz

Pierre Poilievre if the de facto leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. O’Toole is a tool who is getting zero traction. He thinks he is getting traction with the new walkaway-from-the-left populist conservative types like me just because he talked tough on China. Yeah, that’s easy to do in 2020. He had nothing critical to say about China before.

I got a bad vibe from O’Toole as soon as he started cozying up to unions. O’Toole is right to focus on class politics, in my opinion, but he shouldn’t be doing it through unions. Unions are utterly corrupt and the new younger walk-away-from-the-left populist conservative types really really don’t like unions because they’ve screwed so many of us over. What is O’Toole thinking? Unions are a REGRESSIVE force for Canada’s working class today.

#152 Linda on 12.11.20 at 11:33 am

#116 ‘Ponzius’ – it is true a roof over one’s head is a necessity but owning a house isn’t, as hordes of renters can attest. Despite all the RE hype, not everyone wants to own.

#153 Victor V on 12.11.20 at 12:00 pm

Household debt ratio rises to 170.7 per cent, StatCan says

https://www.thestar.com/business/2020/12/11/household-debt-ratio-rises-to-1707-per-cent-statcan-says.html

#154 Wrk.dover on 12.11.20 at 12:01 pm

Generalized, Garths post reads that Trudeau squandered a pair of Airbnb servers and a pair of pair Doordash servers, plus the HST equivalent to have bought those “companies” at the corner store instead of through an IPO.

And because of that, each Canadian has another 40 Grand of debt?

Finance is getting harder to grasp, because the frat boys make up the rules as they headfake along.

#155 Wrk.dover on 12.11.20 at 12:05 pm

…Probably should have said “squandered the equivalent of” for the dim.

#156 Wrk.dover on 12.11.20 at 12:09 pm

OMG! Those IPO’s were in US$ too!

#157 vic Hood on 12.11.20 at 12:09 pm

bitcoin schmitcoin, I’ve got tulip bulbs, trust me, we can do a deal.

#158 Faron on 12.11.20 at 12:33 pm

Mr. Market wasnt quite as well vaxxed as all had hoped it seems.

VIX ramping more today than on the bigger move Weds. Fear is pulsing. Interesting tension between fear now and vast expanses of optimism just a few months ahead.

Jobs came in horrible yesterday while consumer confidence came in strong today. Shrug.

#159 Sara on 12.11.20 at 12:34 pm

#149 KLNR on 12.11.20 at 11:01 am
@#96 Sara on 12.10.20 at 8:10 pm
#82 westcdn on 12.10.20 at 7:35 pm
I haven’t seen a comment from Sail Away in quite a while. I figure three possibilities.

His dogs killed him.

His wife got mad at him.

The powers that be told him to shut up.

My money is on three.

You win. – Garth

thx Garth, we all appreciate it.
=====================

Not quite. Apparently there are at least two fanboys who miss him.

#160 David Greene on 12.11.20 at 6:18 pm

Oh, please. Do you really think sovereign governments will allow any competition to their fiat currencies? History clearly shows not.

A government could simply outlaw Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency in a second if they felt uptake of their own digital currency was compromised by the competition.

Cryptos are already banned in some countries. Can’t remember which ones.

#76 JR on 12.10.20 at 7:14 pm

Like most, this blog is referencing Bitcoin as a failure and never gonna work out. Garth you talk about Central Bank Crypto currencies, but are missing the point. Those will be mined (Pow) or have Staking (Pos) but be centralized and censorable.
Any real crypto will be immutable, and censorship resistant. Besides this one thing, Decentralized Finance (DEFI) is the next big thing. Just look at UniSwap, an exchange that pushes more volume than some stock markets.
Better get up to speed and onboard, or be left behind.