Post-vax

All real estate is local. Never forget that. Maybe Courtney did.

“I’ve been reading your blog since the beginning,” she says, vainly hoping for clemency. “Now I need to know about buying a condo in Calgary.

I relocated here from Toronto 4 years ago.  I am 65 and retired early due to an illness so have been living off savings and now I have CPP and OAS.  I have over $1m invested and am renting a nice apartment downtown.

There is a glut of condos on the market here at crazy low prices.  Should I use some cash and buy a place, if I can get mortgage approval?  I’m sure that when times are better my rent will continue to increase.

Of course not. Calgary’s condo market is a disaster. The last time investors there made money on an apartment people were listening to The Pussycat Dolls and Stephen Harper was in charge. Or the other way round. A mess since – for the usual reasons. Too much supply and not enough demand.

Now AB is virus central with field hospitals on the way and a new US administration that hates oil. Outside of Newfoundland, Alberta has the highest unemployment rate in the country. In the last year condo sales dropped and prices flatlined.

In short, why would Courtney take half her million-dollar retirement nestegg, hopefully making 6% or so, and drop it into a condo which is appreciating by zero and may fade over the next few years? The costs of owning would be extreme – between $3,500 and $4,000 a month when taxes, monthly fees and the lost investing potential of her equity are added. Meanwhile the average listed rent for a 2-bedder in Cowtown is now just $1,350, a 6% drop from last year. And the vacancy rate – at about four per cent – is relatively huge, compared with places like Toronto or Vancouver.

In short, five hundred grand left invested could pay for Courtney’s digs more than twice over. Worse, she’d be immobilized, trapped in a quasi-illiquid investment should she need to move. So the bottom line is clear: condo renters in Calgary win. Owners lose.

Now, how about a place like Toronto?

Last month the Covid property storm started to abate. Sales were up year/year by a lot (24%) but they fell sharply (17%) from the month before. In fact, prices faded, too, with the average dipping by $13,000 to $955.600. The real story was a continued surge in demand for properties with dirt and a further shunning of condos. Overall the price of apartments is 3% lower than a year ago while detached homes have risen 15% across the GTA and 19% in soulless 905.

Not only are condos cheaper, they’re earning less. One-bedders in a good 416 location that were pulling in $2,500 a month a year ago are now being leased for $1,900 or less. That’s a 20% hit for owners, and comes atop the collapse in Airbnb, the shuttering of universities and the lockdown of restaurants and retail outlets where a lot of renters toil. Worse, the desperate mayor (who used to be a Conservative) is now promoting a Van-style vacancy tax which will further depress the apartment market. Meanwhile more than twenty thousand new units will come on stream in the next year, pushing unsold inventory higher even while the number of available resales pops. In the last twelve months, condo listings have already doubled.

But all real estate’s local, remember?

The GTA is Canada’s biggest market, by far. The virus has had a profound impact there. Price appreciation has been double in the ‘burbs compared to the city. Sales of detached properties in 905 have soared almost 34% versus 19% in 416. A new survey of Millennials shows they’re 300% more likely to buy a house in the next year than the rest of us. And what do they want, according to Properly?

Not surprisingly, millennials are dreaming of a detached home (45%), with a backyard (57%), more square footage (44%), closer proximity to green space (34%), and a better home office (28%).

Add in a puppy and a pony, and you understand these kids perfectly. The trouble is, however, affordability. The average price of a place in the suburbs is now $1.24 million – not far off from the $1.4 million city average. To swing this, even with cheapo mortgage rates, you need an income three times the average. And when the pandemic finally ends, opening the door for bond market yield hikes, home loans won’t be 1.6% any more.

In short, what you see now will not last. The vax will defeat the virus over the course of 2021-2. This weird thing called WFH will start to dissipate and then become the preserve of IT cowboys, freelance psychotherapists and TikTok stars. The downtown will fill again. Clubs, bars, arenas, theatres, galleries, convention centres and restaurants will open. Bosses will want to overlord their serfs once more. In the future, as in the past, people will wish to congregate and live where the action is, instead of watching for faint indications of life on their Mississauga cul-de-sac.

Just as people with insight, confidence and perspective bought unloved, dumped, cheap equities when the virus hit, so will woke investors understand some real estate can perform the same. The students will come. The new immigrants will arrive. The renters will be working again. The tourists will show up. And the Mills needing to get on the property ladder will buy. All this, as Covid moves into the rearview.

What did that Gretzky guy say? Oh yeah, skate where the puck is going.

Did he ever play in Alberta?

121 comments ↓

#1 KNOW IT ALL on 12.03.20 at 3:25 pm

The real question is….

“WHEN?”

#2 The West on 12.03.20 at 3:35 pm

So rather than adding in a puppy and a pony, what should the millenials do?

Dream smaller because the demands on the financial system entitled boomers have made render their income essentially obsolete?

The generational divide is astounding.

K shaped recovery it will be. Anyone lucky enough to be into the ponzi scheme early enough is going to make off like a bandit.

Those unfortunate enough to be born in the wrong time are perfectly (pooched).

#3 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 12.03.20 at 3:44 pm

An old Junior B cigar smoking coach once told me the most important thing to do on the ice kid is keep your head up and shoot the puck in the net not at the net.
Oh yeah and make sure the beer r cold for after the game.

#4 DillDoe on 12.03.20 at 3:47 pm

He did. Edmonton.

#5 CJohnC on 12.03.20 at 3:52 pm

Sounds like Courtney has been paying a little attention to the investing part of your blog but not at all to the real estate part.

#6 BlogDog123 on 12.03.20 at 3:53 pm

Buy a condo in AB? That’s crazy talk.

Will Justin Trudeau’s anti-energy policies cripple Alberta even further?

“Just watch me.” as his dad would say!

#7 theoryAndPractice on 12.03.20 at 3:55 pm

Gretzky..where the puck is going..-GT

The right idea is where the puck will be…

#8 baloney Sandwitch on 12.03.20 at 3:55 pm

So, Garth are you saying, Toronto condos are in the buy zone?

#9 Celine Godberson on 12.03.20 at 3:59 pm

Hi Garth, I also have been wondering if now would be a good time to buy a condo in Alberta. I don’t follow why in your example here why you assume 500K would be required to purchase. With the mortgage rates as low as they are would you not put a minimum down and in 5 years have a good amount of the principle paid off? I totally agree that the biggest risk is not being able to sell if you need to get out. I have been looking and see some 2bdroom concrete lowrise for less than 275K. I would appreciate any further clarification on this you might offer. Grettzky played for the Oilers. :)

#10 UtterlyConfusedCanadian on 12.03.20 at 4:01 pm

“…This weird thing called WFH will start to dissipate and then become the preserve of IT cowboys, freelance psychotherapists and TikTok stars….”

Dog, I hope so. You WFH fakes have been causing all sort of problems. My once quiet neighbourhood, is now filled with extraverts and their loud cars. These noisy types should be found only in the downtown core. Get back to the office and stay there until you can cloud code or “Tap In”….

#11 Mike in Calgary on 12.03.20 at 4:02 pm

I own a condo in Calgary. Great neighborhood just north of downtown but still within easy walking distance and close to all amenities. I bought in 2008 for $325K right before the financial meltdown. I’d be lucky today to get $275K. And that’s after a couple of cash calls for upgrades to the building.

These things don’t always end well.

#12 C V on 12.03.20 at 4:02 pm

What about detached 15-20min from downtown Calgary, Garth?

#13 Kevin BC on 12.03.20 at 4:08 pm

Yikes. Courtenay, have you not been reading Garth for the past few years, or even Sinan’s article yesterday? Keep the nest egg, as cash flow is king. $60K for life basically, every year. Rent and enjoy your life.

#14 Brian Ripley on 12.03.20 at 4:09 pm

“…quasi-illiquid investment…” Garth

My Vancouver housing charts are up:
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html

​In November 2020, Vancouver average prices of detached houses ticked up and are now 11% higher Y/Y and 119% over 10 years thanks to the FOMO 2.0 crowd.

Townhouses caught a bid but condos sold off.

Since January 2020, total residential inventory has increased 29% and total residential sales are up 95%.

Res-Listings down 40% from JUN 2012 high
Res-Sales down 41% from MAR 2016 high
Current Monthly Absorption Rate = 28%
Current Months of Inventory = 4

Vancouver SF Detached Price
Down 4.6% from MAY 2017 Peak
Up 119% in last 10 years

Vancouver Town House Price
Down 0.6% from MAY 2018 Peak
T-Houses are priced at 53% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.9 Townhouses

Vancouver Condo Price
Down 12.6% from JAN 2018 Peak
Condos are priced at 38% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 2. Condos

Oh yeah… according to Padmapper 1 bedroom rents in Vancouver are down 10% Y/Y and 2 bedrooms are down 15% Y/Y

(Toronto 1 bdrm down 14.9% Y/Y and 2 bdrms down 11.7% Y/Y)
http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html#Rentals

#15 zoey on 12.03.20 at 4:26 pm

The burbs are worse than covid. I hope more people exit downtown and go there.

#16 ts on 12.03.20 at 4:28 pm

So what happened to the mortgage deferral cliff?

It still looms. – Garth

#17 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.03.20 at 4:32 pm

Garth, I sure hope you’re right…

I moved my wife and toddler the hell out of the GTA back in March, right before the cases started ramping up. We’ve been renting a recreational property out on Lake Huron ever since, and I can tell you that RE in this rural area has been on fire ever since! Sold signs everywhere. Everything getting snapped up in days.

I was planning to buy a rural property with a small acreage when things return to “normal” but properties have skyrocketed out here to the point that I can’t see prices returning to pre-pandemic levels any time soon.

But your article gives me hope. Lol

Oh and not so sure about Biden getting in as it looks like Georgia is about to be the first donino to fall, given today’s smoking gun evidence:

https://mobile.twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1334569329334083586

^ video of poll workers telling observers that they were done counting for the night, then after all the observers leave, they pull out 4 suitcases of ballots from underneath a table (approximately 24,000 ballots) and continue the count! All caught on tape. The # ballots in the suitcases are more than the margin of victory.

#18 45north on 12.03.20 at 4:34 pm

Finance Canada’s top bureaucrat announces departure a day after the government’s fall economic update

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/finance-canadas-top-bureaucrat-announces-departure-day-after-the-governments-fall-economic-update

Bill Morneau was the Minister of Finance. He wanted restraint but Trudeau said no. He said the crisis is an opportunity to remake society, expand the role of government, promoting social and climate justice. Unspoken is the cost. What’s the cost going to be? Who going to pay it?

and now the deputy minister of Finance has quit too

the Government of Canada looks like a movie

The Government of Canada
Produced and Directed by Justin Trudeau
Starring Justin Trudeau

#19 Camille on 12.03.20 at 4:35 pm

Thumbs up to CJohnC, so few words but so effective.
I cannot speak to Toronto, Garth did, but a condo today is not a good investment; unless you’re really rich and just want one (and condo buying was ok 30 years ago).
Why? You can rent for much less. And if you buy, half your neighbors will be renters anyway. Nothing wrong but wasn’t supposed to be like that. And then Airbnb…

#20 Joe Schmoe on 12.03.20 at 4:36 pm

I am not a doom and gloomer… I talk to my financial advisers a couple of times a year…more to pretend to pay attention than anything…even through all of this.

But as a guy born and raised in AB, I would say the good times are over…even after Covid/Trudeau are eradicated.

The high paying job circus is likely over, and RE will continue to drop.

Taking a position based on POTENTIAL upside is risky here.

Ick. I’m even thinking of moving to Ottawa…if you can’t beat them….

#21 Dolce Vita on 12.03.20 at 4:40 pm

RE:

“The vax will defeat the virus over the course of 2021-2.”

Attention KMart shoppers…aisle 2023? 4?

————————-

Well, HOT OFF THE PRESS ( Pfizer/Biontech being made in Belgium and Deutschland, Moderna in Cambridge, MA and Switzerland):

Pfizer/Biontech, Moderna total doses available in 2020 (÷ by 2 for people):

40 million doses for 2020

and for 2021:

5 to 10 million doses/week

do the 2021 “people” Math by yourselves.

Try the Planet Earth calculations for the heck of it.

-Hopefully AstraZeneca at 2 Billion doses/year comes to the rescue (the bulk of that Italia made also 1 other vaccine nowhere near ending in trials).

-Seems the World’s largest vaccine maker in India (1.5 Billion doses/year) will focus on its own people first – do you blame them?

Good summary of which vaccines are coming and about when (not a pretty picture):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

[Told you all so]

———————–

As I’ve been saying for at least a month now, naysayer me, don’t break out the party balloons, party hats and noisemakers anytime soon.

-S. L. Pathogen…in no hurry to be dispatched by humanity.

#22 Dogman01 on 12.03.20 at 4:42 pm

#117 jess on 12.03.20 at 12:38 pm
sunshower: 8 ways here:
https://www.taxfairness.ca/sites/default/files/resource/canadian_for_tax_fairness_-_billionaires_report_2020_final.pdf

————————————————-

Now really…..

“Wealth is highly unequally distributed across gender and racial lines. All Canada’s top 44 billionaires are male and the vast majority are white, while those most negatively affected by the pandemic are predominantly poor, female and/or from communities of colour.”

They could have retained credibility and made this a simple measurable number. Wealthiest and most in Poverty…..but they had to bring in Race and Gender.

Unbelievable how they cannot see this virtue signaling as racist, it did not have to be mentioned to make the wealth inequality argument. (there are poor white males I see them homeless all the time)

Instead they alienate people whom believe Wealth distribution is a real problem, eliminating poverty also very good, but whom will never support racist policy and ideas.

The new Left: they are the only ideology that divides, categorizes, and treats human beings differently based upon race, ethnicity, religion, and gender.

“Racism does not have a good track record. It’s been tried out for a long time and you’d think by now we’d want to put an end to it instead of putting it under new management.” ― Thomas Sowell

#23 We're not just going to let ... on 12.03.20 at 4:45 pm

Taranna catch up with us out west here …

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-empty-homes-tax

#24 Steve French on 12.03.20 at 4:48 pm

From Yesterday:

#92 Steve French on 12.03.20 at 1:30 am
Yo Garth:

Is 16 ETFs too much diversification for a portfolio of about $300K?

thanks,
Steve

———

#111 Stone on 12.03.20 at 11:12 am

Depends. What’s your return YTD (and longer term) and is it actually balanced and diversified? Then compare it to something like XBAL or XGRO and their YTD returns. If you’re consistently beating the all in one ETFs, all good. If not, rethink your strategy.

================

Hi Stone:

It is B&D, and my usual system was with a basket of 13 ETFs that produced an 8.5%+ avg. return over last 4 years. (pre-tax)

Now i have upped it to 16 ETFs adding in a bit more geographical and sector diversification, but am wondering if that’s actually likely to help me much or not.

cheers
Steve

#25 Linda on 12.03.20 at 4:49 pm

Courtney, if I were you I’d talk to friends/acquaintances who may have had experience with condo ownership. Most retired ladies I know have emphatically said it was a mistake to buy a condo. While the lure of owning is strong, the reality of ever increasing condo fees plus the threat of special assessments – not to mention the risk of buying into a dodgy building – far outweighed any benefits of ownership.

Hope you do have your nest egg invested in a balanced & diversified portfolio paying ultra low management fees & are not locked into a dead end GIC or some high cost fund offered by your bank. If you are in that situation, get the heck out as soon as you can.

#26 cramar on 12.03.20 at 4:49 pm

Massive Canadian bank profits! Who would have known? Umm…anyone who knows about investing.

Canadian banks are always profitable, and pay a decent dividend in this time of extremely low interest rates. Plus could be picked up for a massive discount back in March.

As the words of the song go…”When will they ever learn? When will they ever learn?”

#27 Damifino on 12.03.20 at 4:50 pm

#2 The West

Those unfortunate enough to be born in the wrong time are perfectly (pooched).
——————————

I said exactly that 47 years ago when I believed myself to be one of the unfortunates. I was 23. My father, a veteran of the Normandy invasion laughed in my face. I didn’t appreciate it much then. But now I do.

#28 TurnerNation on 12.03.20 at 4:55 pm

#33 Dolce Vita on 12.02.20 at 4:44 pm -“One thing your intrepid numbers article author forgot is this:
You don’t catch cancer, heart. dementia or stroke by not wearing a mask, hand sanitizing and distancing (i.e., preventable)”

– All the words you mention below are part of the new control system. Put it this way, ever in your life going to see family doctors, hospitals, ERs, clinics, walk in clinics did you see a doctor or nurse wearing a mask or ‘distancing’ while dealing with very sick patients on the front line? I never did.

https://www.jccf.ca/government-data-shows-lockdowns-more-deadly-than-covid-19/
…………….

Control control. Submit. We are living the new global order.

Breaking…NEW hospitals to be built, says polititcian!
Opps what was I thinking. This is region of Peel, a RED zone (Communist red zone)

(What I’ve heard: the goal of Communist rules was to humiliate. Line up apart, no talking, enter store under watching eye of security/armed police guard; enjoy your shopping experience! For you health Comrade
Soon, you will not be able to transact commerce without the Mark. We’re under global rule. Same rules, every country, it’s not going away anytime soon)

https://twitter.com/BonnieCrombie/status/1331755817629061121? @BonnieCrombie
Tomorrow at @regionofpeel
Council, I will be putting forward a motion to limit the in-person sale of non-essential items in big box stores. I believe this will create fairness for small retailers who have had to close their doors and move to online, curbside pickup and delivery.

………

Speaking of health, look at the size of these nanoparticle (I think) dust which latch inside your body then deliver their dose. A healthy dose of what. Brings new meaning to the saying Spike a drink:
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/11/25/theragripper-gi-tract-medicine-delivery/

#29 Another Anxious Calgarian on 12.03.20 at 4:56 pm

Thanks for the comments on Calgary. This blog saved me from major losses a few years back when I almost bought a townhouse in the suburban NW.

Thinking about doing the same now but very worried about this province’s future. Bad idea?

#30 active on 12.03.20 at 4:59 pm

$1M invested, collecting CPP/OAS, renting in Calgary, and what’s on the mind of a 65 year old?…buying a condo? LMAO…

#31 Palpha on 12.03.20 at 4:59 pm

Hyperinflation to come? I have a balanced portfolio and can comfortably retire on the income from that. Have had about 6.2% returns for years. This year 4.2% return. I own real estate through my investments but sold my house 2 years ago. Renting a brand new ridiculously cheap condo in great location. But T2 spending has me worried about hyperinflation. Is that a reason to consider buy a house again?

No. Hyperinflation is an impossibility in Canada. – Garth

#32 Paddy on 12.03.20 at 5:03 pm

I bought a bunch of VCE back in March….30% off seemed like a good deal….some friends of mine bought a cottage…we shall see how this all plays out.

#33 Up She Goes on 12.03.20 at 5:09 pm

Prices are only going up for the next several years.

The much vaunted mortgage deferral cliff with 700,000 deferrals is a nothing burger. It was supposed to happen in the fall – and pure silence on this front. The 8 million Canadians on CERB have transitioned just fine and are not selling their homes – no mass unemployment. The low-income service workers that lost their jobs temporarily have more money through CERB and CRB now than they did working. Canadians have a positive savings rate now because of the government largess. Low interest rates are here for years. The feds goosed the market with increased buyer incentives all the while preaching housing affordability. All the people buying dirt in the burbs and small towns will not have to go back to work in the office because they are high income individuals. There is no fiscal restraint on the horizon for years to come – the inevitable 2021 election will secure a Liberal majority for four more years.

The government has told everyone they will not leave anyone behind – and the sheer scope of government support for everyone has demonstrated that.

In short, there is zero chance of any softening or any correction of a bull market that has run unchecked since 2003 – nearly 20 years. That is the same time it takes to pay down a mortgage….

Renters, and those on the sidelines, have lost any hope of owning a house without extreme debt – as Canadians have shown themselves willing to gorge on debt even amidst a pandemic to own some dirt..

Real estate is only going up folks. The house that was too expensive last fall, with be 10% higher this Spring….

#34 P.Ooched on 12.03.20 at 5:13 pm

|| This weird thing called WFH will start to dissipate and then become the preserve of IT cowboys, freelance psychotherapists and TikTok stars.

Pretty sure if this blogging gig doesn’t work out for you – you would make a killing doing standup comedy :)

#35 Dolce Vita on 12.03.20 at 5:14 pm

Remember this VACCINE distressing headline from the other day (asked the bloody French* to post it online for free, no answer of yet, Le Parisien):

“Covid-19 : vacciné mais contagieux, est-ce possible ?

La Haute autorité de santé estime que les vaccins sont efficaces contre les formes graves du coronavirus, mais a un doute sur leur capacité à empêcher toute contagion.”

Well now add a peer reviewed UK medical journal full of polite doubts to the list:

“Pfizer and Moderna’s “95% effective” vaccines—let’s be cautious and first see the full data”

British Medical Journal

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/11/26/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-lets-be-cautious-and-first-see-the-full-data/

And, for the Love of God…don’t Google what “grade 3 fatigue” is, don’t do it…you will thank me (in 10% of Moderna vaccine recipients).

Today UK’s Doc Campbell, go to guy for verifiable data, starting to say this about Pfizer and Moderna RNA vaccines:

“100% effective for the WORST of Covid cases…”

Starting to sound like a familiar refrain to me (Recall France La Haute autorité de santé: “les vaccins sont efficaces contre les formes graves du coronavirus…”).

——————————

Despite what rational thinking says about vaccine logistics, quantities, when and above all efficacy…hope still springs eternal.

———

*Not you Québec, you’re the ONLY place in ALL of N. America where you can get a decent meal…à l’exception de Poutine (no one is perfect).

#36 joblo on 12.03.20 at 5:15 pm

said it b4,
Calgary is the new Detroit!

#37 TurnerNation on 12.03.20 at 5:16 pm

Oh boy here’s Blog Dog Poloz repeating the new global agenda. CV did that? This message is all you will be hearing in the next 10 years. The Old System and way of life is gone.

Let me translate his words in my opinion.
– All the first world countries must be taxed and brought to their knees such that we #stayhome, no travel, and equally are broke – equality!
Energy and living costs will skyrocket – just google for ‘energy poverty’ a new, government-imposed thing.

https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/research-and-markets/which-forces-could-cause-economic-upheaval/

“These forces — an aging population, growing indebtedness, technological progress, rising inequality and climate — are “forces of nature, and their interaction can give rise to sudden, earthquake-like eruptions of economic and financial volatility,” said Poloz, in a virtual keynote address at Franklin Templeton’s 2021 Investment Outlook on Tuesday. ”

……….

I’ve posted many times I suspect the closed Sport Stadiums will be re-opened as needle centres.
Long lines, people receiving their baptism inside. Saved.
Today I read an article that in UK they will used the closed stores/shops for such a purpose.
Hey it’s for our health! Freedom is long gone. you have no right to be healthy in the New System; no free ride for anybody. And people are rejoicing over it. No wonder our elites roar with laughter at us. The globe has been enslaved.

………..

Just for fun, seen elsewhere; it’s all right there. Our telescreens. Why we were given 24/7 CV programming.
Not my quote:

“”Media = Medium
Channels = Channeling
Forecast= fortune telling
Broadcasting = Spreading seeds of their agenda
Remote control = controlling you remotely
Television = telling you by visual program
Programming = programming you to think a certain way”

….

Late, breaking news,

RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust has reduced its monthly distribution to unitholders from 12 cents per unit to eight cents per unit, or from $1.44 to 96 cents on an annualized basis.

#38 AGuyInVancouver on 12.03.20 at 5:21 pm

Who in their right mind retires to Calgary?

#39 Dolce Vita on 12.03.20 at 5:41 pm

Final vaccine missive.

You may all think I have an unusual and dour [dirge] interest about DAMN VIRUS vaccines.

Recall:

I too am a human being that would like to enjoy his retirement without being stricken by an invisible S. L. Pathogen just like the next person.

My interest is primarily financial in that when it is vanquished, Planet Earth can get bet back to generating wealth without that great enemy FEAR (and continuing to fund my retirement and that of peers).

FWIW

——————–

Forgot about the Commie Vaccines (Sputnik, China)…if their vaccines actually worked, would they not be “chest thumping, heralding” their excellent vaccines and the Commie way they came from like Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca have been doing in the West?

Yet, all I read from them is nothing, nada, I hear only crickets – Lorem Ipsum so far from them (and I subscribe to Commie dailies where you would expect the Commie vaccines triumph meme to be announced).

#40 Bezengy on 12.03.20 at 5:44 pm

Sure have noticed a lot of Alberta license plates on hwy 11 heading east lately. Hope Mom has the basement cleaned out.

#41 Stan Brooks on 12.03.20 at 5:44 pm

You need no hyperinflation to be destroyed by inflation.

With incomes stagnant and jobs disappearing, houses in Mississauga and Vaughan have increased 6-8 times in price in the last 2 decades.

It is all artificial, of course, as there is no economy to support those valuations, but indicative of the mission impossible that life has become in this place.

1.4-1.5 millions for a house, 2-3 millions to retire, kids, etc. With no decent jobs around and ever higher taxes and fees.

And what do you get in return? A cardboard house and some GMO crap to fill the tummy.

The good new?

You will need TRIPPLE that in 10 years, just wait for the real inflation to show up, result of idiotic monetary policies.

Enjoy responsibly folks.

Cheers,

#42 Diversified in Oakville (Now Mississauga) on 12.03.20 at 5:49 pm

#28 Damifino

Yours response is the best one I have EVER read on this blog; and unfortunately I read most of them.

We all see the older generation as the privileged ones. I did as well. We all make our own choices and need to stop blaming others for those choices.

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.03.20 at 5:50 pm

#40 Dolce
Forgot about the Commie Vaccines (Sputnik, China)…if their vaccines actually worked, would they not be “chest thumping, heralding” their excellent vaccines and the Commie way they came from like Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca have been doing in the West?

Yet, all I read from them is nothing, nada, I hear only crickets – Lorem Ipsum so far from them (and I subscribe to Commie dailies where you would expect the Commie vaccines triumph meme to be announced).———-
You’re still living in the Cold War times.
Time to move on.

#44 Dave on 12.03.20 at 5:51 pm

Why buy anything in Calgary when it the province is run by a nut job who is refusing to diversify away from oil and gas–an industry in decline, and cutting funding for special needs and education to give tax breaks for oil and gas companies?

#45 Dolce Vita on 12.03.20 at 6:06 pm

Correction on all HOOPLA yesterday night about UK approval of the Pfizer vaccine as seen on Cdn* and US* MSM.

Just ’cause they approved it does BNOT mean they’re going to get MORE first.

They are still in the EU and subject to the orders placed and rationing by the EC, no more, no less, pound of flesh stuff despite what FAST TALKING, SLEIGHT OF HAND, BORIS says.

Still, good to read the UK wants to be that Canary in the Coal Mine for the rest of us.

If I were the good people of the UK I would be a bit gunshy on early vaccinations based on UK Gov performance to date:

Herd immunity, late to the table on restrictions, confusing restrictions and their stats worse than Italia that got hit first in the West way before the UK and Gov UK chose not to learn from them (fast asleep, SMUG), they did finally when too late.

At least the Germans followed Italia 2 weeks later, the French 1 month later (’cause they’re French) and the Spanish never to protect tourism and finally, as the bodies started to pile up, did what Italia did…too late, too late, but like the French MUCH, MUCH better now (good for España).

*The NBC guy did a reasonable job (Richard Engel) unlike CTV Fangurl Lisa LaFlamme “the World’s envy” about the UK announcement…witless as usual (at least Paul Workman in London had brains and common sense not to comment).

FWIW

#46 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 12.03.20 at 6:08 pm

***Clarification for Toronturds and GTAHoles:

“Gretzky” refers to a very talented hockey player who did not constantly under-perform, was not hampered by incompetent management leadership, and was part of a successful franchise that has actually won multiple Stanley Cups in the lifetime of both you and your parents. He played for a city that is livable and civil and did not have a crazy glass-wall condo fetish nor an explosive murder rate and general hostility towards all humanity including children. He would be considered a “loser” in Toronthole, where his restaurant was just closed in order to build…..more glass-wall condos.

#47 Faron on 12.03.20 at 6:16 pm

#25 Steve French on 12.03.20 at 4:48 pm

I’d think of it this way: if you have 16 positions that implies that you know the ins and outs of those sectors/regions/asset classes well enough to be able to optimize all 16. Unless this is a retirement project for you or something that you want to spend all of your spare time doing, it’s probably not worth it and it’s probably also not going to work out any better for you.

Furthermore, the more positions you hold the more trading commissions you will have to pay when you rebalance. And, your rebalancing calculations will be all the more complex.

You also have to be honest with yourself, are you outperforming a similarly weighted generic portfolio? After commissions and all else? Honestly? I ask because I played with this for myself and I always had an excuse why my returns weren’t as good as a balanced ETF and that I wouldn’t make the mistake next time. Yeah, right. Compare with either one of the asset allocation ETFs that Stone mentioned or a combination of a few ETFs to make your own. There are tools online to backtest portfolios. My discount brokerage, Q-trade, has a portfolio analyzer that details returns as well as risk and income metrics to help you really see how your choices have performed in the past.

That brings me to another issue. Returns aren’t everything and returns over four years don’t mean much at all. I’m sure a two ETF port that was 60% NASDAQ and 40% bonds would have done quite well in the last four years and probably beat your port. This does not mean that is a sensible choice. Look at the portfolio more holistically than just returns.

#48 Dolce Vita on 12.03.20 at 6:29 pm

#29 TurnerNation

Quisque amat conspiratio.

That includes me.

Keep Commenting…you’re bound to get one correct eventually.

#49 Drinking on 12.03.20 at 6:40 pm

I live in Calgary and I approve Garth’s message. Now is not the time. Things will turn around, probably in a couple of years. Stay safe everyone!!

#50 Linda on 12.03.20 at 6:48 pm

#45 ‘Dave’ – not to mention said nutter effectively declaring a ‘war on doctors’ in addition to delisting services during a pandemic via his Minister of Health. Take a bow, O Minister of Health who just happens to co-own a private business with his spouse which will offer – wait for it – said delisted services. Move along now folks, nothing dodgy to see here.

#51 Stone on 12.03.20 at 6:53 pm

#25 Steve French on 12.03.20 at 4:48 pm
From Yesterday:

#92 Steve French on 12.03.20 at 1:30 am
Yo Garth:

Is 16 ETFs too much diversification for a portfolio of about $300K?

thanks,
Steve

———

#111 Stone on 12.03.20 at 11:12 am

Depends. What’s your return YTD (and longer term) and is it actually balanced and diversified? Then compare it to something like XBAL or XGRO and their YTD returns. If you’re consistently beating the all in one ETFs, all good. If not, rethink your strategy.

================

Hi Stone:

It is B&D, and my usual system was with a basket of 13 ETFs that produced an 8.5%+ avg. return over last 4 years. (pre-tax)

Now i have upped it to 16 ETFs adding in a bit more geographical and sector diversification, but am wondering if that’s actually likely to help me much or not.

cheers
Steve

———

Read this. Right off of the Turner Investments website. I found it very useful and enlightening.

https://www.investmentexecutive.com/newspaper_/strategies/a-balancing-act/

#52 Dolce Vita on 12.03.20 at 6:55 pm

#44 Ponzius Pilatus

Just a thought, subscribe to the Commie dailies as I do (Twitter, web sites), read them say for a year, then come back, weigh in and not before.

#53 Catalyst on 12.03.20 at 6:56 pm

I confuse easily – did you just tell her not\ to buy a cheap condo and indicate to us to buy cheap condos in TO (where the puck will be) or did I lose the plot.

You missed the ‘all real estate is local’ part. Pay attention. – Garth

#54 Don't Be Idiots on 12.03.20 at 7:02 pm

Prices go up and prices go down. Everybody that bought into money laundered real estate over the past 20 years are in for a rude awakening. Soon no one will be at the table to buy as prices fall buyers walk and wait and wait..

#55 Dolce Vita on 12.03.20 at 7:18 pm

#44 Ponzius Pilatus

Not to belabour the point, but follow these on Twitter, as I do:

China Xinhua News
@XHNews

China Daily
@ChinaDaily

China News 中国新闻网
@Echinanews

And for a dissenting voice, unless they get beat up by the Proletariat in Hong Kong streets (you love the double speak to protect the journalists):

SCMP News
@SCMPNews

President of Russia
@KremlinRussia_E [a.k.a., Vlad the Impaler]

and for that Laconic, 2 word headline Euro Flavour:

il manifesto
@ilmanifesto

—————-

Ya, 1 year…get back to me.

#56 Nonplused on 12.03.20 at 7:18 pm

“What did that Gretzky guy say? Oh yeah, skate where the puck is going.

Did he ever play in Alberta?”

———————————–

He could have also said “skate where the money is”. It was inevitable that after expansion all the marquee players were heading to the states, and it remains the case to this day. The Canadian teams mostly still exists to give the big US teams someone to play. But it is unlikely they will ever bring home the cup again. They don’t generate enough TV revenue to finance it. Well except for Toronto, but they don’t seem to care. As long as the stadium is sold out all is well for them.

So what is the economic lesson to be learn from a country that is in constant contention in world competition (where we get our players back from the US) but can’t win the championship in the sport we invented because it can’t afford its’ own best players? Well, the “brain drain” is nothing new, and it is very real. One of the reasons the US economy is so successful is because it attracts the best and brightest from around the world, China, India, Russia, and yes even Canada. Heck I even worked there for a while. I recently had a zoom reunion with folks from my university class and of the 14 or so people that logged in 2 were unemployed and 3 were living and working in the states. And who doesn’t have friends, relatives, and former coworkers that have made the move? It is where the jobs are. And where are the Americans who moved to Canada? Well there are some but it strikes me the “trade” goes mosty one way.

The Canadian economy consists mostly of sending oil, gas, wood, other raw materials, and electricity to the US, with Toronto acting as the banking hub for those sectors. This isn’t where the puck is going. Many of the larger corporations involved in Canada’s core economic activities are based in the US. Even Encana, which at one point was Canada’s most valuable company, has hightailed it out of here and changed its’ name to sound like a nasal spray. They left behind all the heavy crude nobody wants but they took all the office equipment. Heck we can’t even build skidoos without government subsidies anymore, and we invented those too.

So how is this actionable? For most of us it isn’t. If you have a nice government job no worries. But if you have kids, advise them to get a good quality STEM education or learn to code if they can (that fits in the “T” I think), paid for in large part by the Canadian government, and then be mobile. Silicon Valley is always going to want their engineers in Silicon Valley. Texas oil giants will always want their analytics departments in Houston. The New York bankers will always want their quants and traders in New York.

I discovered a very interesting thing about the US mentality when working down there. They are very accepting of foreigners, they are a nation of immigrants after all, and if you have ever worked on the floor of an US office before you would not detect the rampant racism they are so often accused of. The average color is “brown”. But they definitely look at you oddly if you haven’t moved there and got at least a green card after a year. They want you to become one of them. They want you to buy a house. They want you to put down roots. They want your son to join their son’s little-league team. They want you to pay your taxes and spend your money among them. In short they want to absorb you. And why wouldn’t they? It’s what happened to most of them at some point in the family history. They literally cannot understand it and verge on being offended if you don’t become one of them.

So tell your children to be mobile and maybe take them on vacation in the US. Canada is never going to be a tech hub because California will continue to be where the money for that goes. We will never be a “green energy” powerhouse because the sun doesn’t shine here for 5 months of the year and you can put a windmill anywhere. If oil truly is on the way out Alberta will depopulate. Much of the interior of BC as well.

Gretzky made most of his fortune after he left Alberta. Your kids might too. Make sure they are open to that possibility. Also make sure they know that financial success in life is highly correlated to educational achievement. The “C” students in engineering are the ones who go on to drive BMW’s along with the doctors and lawyers. Even a trade gives you a good pay bump and increased opportunities. You don’t need UBI if you are a decent plumber and enjoy the work.

#57 Flop... on 12.03.20 at 7:20 pm

CNN, Dolce Vita and TurnerNation walk into a bar…

M46BC

#58 Tyler Durden on 12.03.20 at 7:20 pm

Garth, do you think downtown TO condo market is at a low, or still approaching it and a couple months away? Would you hazard a guess?

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.03.20 at 7:23 pm

I went over on the 7am (the first) sailing to Victoria this am….
Two car lanes were full on the upper car deck ( 25% )
Two truck lanes were full on the lower truck deck (50%)

As asked some of the guys in Victoria about it……thats the way its been for 2 weeks…..

I came back on the 1pm sailing …even fewer vehicles….

Oh and BC Ferries “awarded” a gift ticket to a lucky car in the line-up on the 1pm sailing.
Big announcement over the PA system. They picked the car and the license plate.
The winner could get a refund or a rain cheque for another sailing.

I have been travelling back and forth to the island for 10 years and have never ever seen that happen.

This BC economy is getting ass kicked.

#60 crossbordershopper on 12.03.20 at 7:54 pm

i am very surprised at what my wayne gretzky rookie cards are now worth, i got 9 of them, i dont have them rated but they look really really good, square corners, very clean and crisp. they go for like $3000 a pop usd. i remember picking them up for luck 100 bucks each back in the day.
gretzky. who would know.

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.03.20 at 7:55 pm

@#37 joblo
“said it b4,
Calgary is the new Detroit!”

+++++

OK…since it is Calgary……
Just remember…… Bulls Lives Matter

#62 Steven Nicolle on 12.03.20 at 7:58 pm

I will be calling up my oncologist to see if I am able to take this vaccine. With my cancer autoimmune disease and reading this elevated the immune system and side effects on some I will be interested in finding out what happens to the LTC residents when they get it. Apparently immunocompromised were not included in the trials. Hmmmm….

#63 Nonplused on 12.03.20 at 8:07 pm

#2 The West on 12.03.20 at 3:35 pm
So rather than adding in a puppy and a pony, what should the millenials do?

Dream smaller because the demands on the financial system entitled boomers have made render their income essentially obsolete?

The generational divide is astounding.

K shaped recovery it will be. Anyone lucky enough to be into the ponzi scheme early enough is going to make off like a bandit.

Those unfortunate enough to be born in the wrong time are perfectly (pooched).

———————————-

For Dog sakes folks there is no “generational divide”. When my grandfathers (both of them) arrived here from Holland after WWII with wives and kids in tow they were both broke and had nothing. And they had to live through the war and Nazi occupancy. My father started out broke and had nothing. He had to work in Fort Mac driving back on the weekends, leaving my mom all alone in a basement suite with 2 kids. I started out living in a room in my Grandmother’s basement while I went to school because my dad had to move away again. Nobody had it easy. Kids these days expect to be born on the finish line, with all the fine things their parents had to work for given to them.

Sure, a house in Calgary costing $500,000 seems like a stretch these days. But that same house at $200,000 in 1995 seemed like a stretch too. Starting wages, at least in my line of work, have doubled since then, and interest rates have collapsed.

And folks, don’t worry about Garth’s rising interest rates. Sign up for that 5 year and hopefully you can manage the rise with a reamortization. And if not, well you were one divorce or job loss away from bankruptcy anyway. My dad went bankrupt once and he bounced back. It isn’t the worst thing that can happen to you.

I think I understand the problem the kids have thinking about things a bit. When I first got divorced (which wiped me out, don’t worry about the housing market so much if your wife is unpredictable), I would take the kids camping on the weekends and in the summer for our vacation. I bought a used tent trailer for $5,000. My 10 year old Jeep could pull it if it was running. I don’t know if they remember those days but they were fun. But they do remember that I now have a diesel puller, fifth, and a boat. They look at what I accomplished over 30 years of working and ask themselves “How come I don’t have a boat?” “Well you are still in school sunshine, if you land that teaching job you might be able to afford a used boat at about the same age I did. I never bought a new one.”

PS, I could have bought a new boat, or several, but why spend that kind of money on something that only floats a few weeks a year?

#64 DON on 12.03.20 at 8:15 pm

Dolce

I haven’t heard very much about the vaccines in China and Russia either and had a similiar thought.

#65 Keith on 12.03.20 at 8:17 pm

81% think home ownership is a good investment. The dream is not dead yet.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/pattie-lovett-reid-bank-of-mom-and-dad-still-open-despite-pandemic-1.1530981

#66 Nonplused on 12.03.20 at 8:19 pm

PS, Garth, I just decided I do want to win a contest an post a guest blog.

My subject will be “The Wealth Gap”.

I will show using statistics that excluding innovators like Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, and OM (old money which probably came from previous innovators), wealth tends to increase with age and education. Older folks who have topped up their RRSP’s and paid off their houses tend to be your clients, kids just getting out of high school not so much.

The war on the “wealthy” is a war on your future self, unless you have given up all hope.

In retrospect, no guest post needed I just said it all but didn’t have to provide graphs.

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.03.20 at 8:26 pm

@#94 Billybob
“It’s not the $1.50 at Timmies. It’s the $4.50 at Starbucks. It’s that plus the cell phone plan that’s more than needed. Same with the internet. The vehicle that’s far more than needed or can can be afforded. Then the second one cause the student beater wasn’t good enough for someone at the ripe old age of 25. The streaming services that can’t be done without. The clothing that has to be of a certain quality. The laptop that just had to be replaced. The education loans to which no thought was given whatsoever as to the possible ROI. On and on and on. And they are actually on the more responsible end of the spectrum in their cohort. But somehow according to you it’s all the fault of Boomers and offshoring and evil corps and whomever else.

Meanwhile, I’m 20 years older than them and live far more modestly than they do now, let alone than I did 20 years ago. Sorry, can’t blame that all on everyone else.

In short, it’s about values, not a specific dollar amount. If you think that previous generations didn’t struggle with lack of jobs and money you’re delusional. I’m just glad that as a Gen X’er I didn’t have access to the credit that folks can now bury themselves in. In my early working days I tracked every cent (I still do) because I had to. If I had $20 left with 3 days until the next payday, that was it, that’s what I was feeding myself with. Figure it out, or go hungry. Now you just order $35 sushi on UberEats and blame being broke on “the wages”. Ok.

Yeah yeah I know, six feet of snow walking uphill each way to school and all that. But the life skills from always being close to the edge financially in the beginning served me well when eventually the money came, and come it did. Make the money first, then the lifestyle. The order is important. That’s got nothing to do with a coffee a day.

You can complain all you want about sweatshop workers and the lack of wage increases and so on but it won’t change a thing. Maybe it’s time you stop complaining about things you can’t change, and instead adapt to reality? There’s a whole world of opportunity.

But, much like my own beloved family, advice from anyone born BEFORE 1981 will no doubt be completely ignored. Far easier to protest against the unfairness of life.”

++++

Brilliant!
I was distracted and didnt see your comment until now.

My apologies for posting it AGAIN to anyone with the attention span of a gnat that cant read through it.

In a nutshell,
Boomers, Gen X’ers whatever……. didnt have the CREDIT available to them that the kids today do….

Its not the Boomers fault people.
You’re allowing yourselves to be sucked into the credit vortex…..

Look in the mirror…. Wants vs Needs.

#68 Beetman on 12.03.20 at 8:39 pm

No. Hyperinflation is an impossibility in Canada. – Garth
They also said the titantic was unsinkable.

You do not know what hyperinflation is. – Garth

#69 cristian on 12.03.20 at 9:00 pm

Every 10-15 year there is a massive crisis … wealth transfer .. previous one was 2008-2010 financial crisis .. look back at indices .. individual stocks .. I remember buying Teck at 4$ … went to $60 …this is the other one .. who had the courage and the cash is smiling and waiting for the end of this …. tons of wealth has been moved .. now I do ETF’s .. Good luck everybody .. stay healthy and keep some liquidity …

#70 Drinking on 12.03.20 at 9:07 pm

#57 Nonplused

A lot of great inputs, greatly enjoyed what you had to say until you said “oil is on is way out” yep, I agree, maybe in 50 yrs, until then, it is going nowhere. No current technology can displace it especially in extreme weather!
Everything that you and all of us enjoy today is all because of oil and gas. I stand by my prediction that Alberta will be back stronger then ever in a couple of years. Hang on tight or lose your shirts!!

#71 FriedEggs on 12.03.20 at 9:11 pm

Speaking of #99, Brantford real estate is booming.

And I wonder how much a lot is going for at 1492 Landback Lane in Caledonia?

#72 Outrage on 12.03.20 at 9:18 pm

Yes, real estate is local. GTA, LM and Victoria. All home owners are very happy with there sfh investment and will retire very happy. Its funny,one realtor told me the meaning of life in Victoria is to own a house. He told me
as you get older your house will make you rich and retirement so much better. The pride of home ownership
is for many is success or failure for not buying a house.

#73 DON on 12.03.20 at 9:23 pm

As Crowded stated


In a nutshell,
Boomers, Gen X’ers whatever……. didnt have the CREDIT available to them that the kids today do….

Its not the Boomers fault people.
You’re allowing yourselves to be sucked into the credit vortex….

************

Credit was a lot tighter. Prepaid credit cards were credit cards with training wheels. If only people studied the nuances of history rather than assume what it was like back when (enter date).

You had to have a full time job for at least 5 yrs before a bank would touch you without using your parents. But this is the new temporary normal we live in. Easy credit and huge debt levels makes sense that it should continue on forever…their is a rude awakening on the horizon.

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.03.20 at 9:24 pm

#53 Dolce Vita on 12.03.20 at 6:55 pm
#44 Ponzius Pilatus

Just a thought, subscribe to the Commie dailies as I do (Twitter, web sites), read them say for a year, then come back, weigh in and not before.
———
How’s your fascist buddy Matteo Salvini doing?

#75 Jason M on 12.03.20 at 9:27 pm

Good post Garth. I totally agree with you the one in Calgary. Prices in many neighbourhoods are still correcting & you can rent for only a few hundred more than condo fees, taxes insurance etc. Have a friend who has a gorgeous 2 bedroom suite with two huge panoramic view balconies they bought in 2012 in Calgary for $300,000. Comparables in their building have gone this summer for $245,000, and currently one is listed for $230,000. That’s $70,000 less than they paid over 8 years ago! There are currently over 2500 listings for rent in Calgary on kijiji. https://www.kijiji.ca/b-apartments-condos/calgary/c37l1700199

#76 C V on 12.03.20 at 9:40 pm

#64 Nonpulsed

——————————-

I am a young person in Calgary, and will likely stay. I just wanted to say thank you for the reminder to be patient and the lesson that obstacles will come and they will be overcome. This year has been a whirlwind but I have my health and youth and a great partner. I think very much the same. I know young people buying new trucks and vehicles and have blown through so much cash in their younger years, when you can buy an old SUV and slap some big tires on and go to the Rockies for almost the same amount of fun-maybe more even.

#77 MF on 12.03.20 at 9:48 pm

68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.03.20 at 8

I read BillyBob’s anecdotal post and thought..it’s an anecdotal post. Period. Another simplification and gross generalization about millions and millions of people.

There are a lot of completely destitute boomers out there, but there are a lot of wealthy ones too. Personality, choices, luck, all determine one’s level of success. Anyone with a teeny bit of people skills can see that. Crying about boomers is just as cringeworthy, by the way.

Now, there are vague similarities between individuals in generations, but to paint everyone in that generation as the same can only be explained as an expression of personal bias and lack of exposure (i guess). Throwaway material.

So Fartz, if you think this all sounds like the incorrect, over simplifications you make repeatedly on here about other groups in society, you are correct.

Lol millennials can’t afford 1.4 million dollar houses because the buy $4 coffees. Kindergarten teachers making 50k/year are bankrupting the world.

Unbelievable.

MF

#78 Dr V on 12.03.20 at 9:56 pm

67 nonplused

“The war on the “wealthy” is a war on your future self,
unless you have given up all hope.”

Well said, though quite obvious to many on this blog.

I like this one: “everyone who is old has been young, but not a single young person has been old”. Also obvious, but rule number one of exams is “state the obvious.

Now regarding the Calgary condo. Cant recall a single poster saying to buy. Makes me think it is the bottom as everyone seems to be “forward looking” at gloom and doom. She is retired, so I don’t see why she would have to relocate in a hurry, has over $1M invested, rates at all time lows. So might just be more of a personal choice. Lots of product, be picky and
grind ’em.

#79 Coastal Mavin on 12.03.20 at 9:57 pm

DELETED

#80 Stone on 12.03.20 at 9:59 pm

#66 Keith on 12.03.20 at 8:17 pm
81% think home ownership is a good investment. The dream is not dead yet.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/pattie-lovett-reid-bank-of-mom-and-dad-still-open-despite-pandemic-1.1530981

———

Well, that fits the premise that most people are dumb and dumber.

#81 Barb on 12.03.20 at 10:14 pm

“Oh and BC Ferries “awarded” a gift ticket to a lucky car in the line-up on the 1pm sailing.
Big announcement over the PA system. They picked the car and the license plate.
The winner could get a refund or a rain cheque for another sailing.
I have been travelling back and forth to the island for 10 years and have never ever seen that happen.
This BC economy is getting ass kicked.”
———————————
A gift ticket?
The BC NDP have such a soft spot for their beloved Ferries.

#82 Doug t on 12.03.20 at 10:15 pm

All this talk about the young spending everything on STUFF – I’m 57 and when I was in my twenties and working at GM in St. Catharines I blew it ALL – Camaro, firebird,corvette and many many nights at the Press Box in Niagara Falls New York and many other establishments lol – I didn’t save a dime, I was YOUNG and living life with no worries and it was GREAT – sure I changed later in my thirties as I had to but boy those were golden times when your young – enjoy your youth, don’t get all tied up in the stress of “oh I’ve got to put x amount of my cheque into rrsp’s or something” – LIVE – the rest will happen or it won’t

#83 uncle dave on 12.03.20 at 10:16 pm

will the people who have paid 100k+on top of the asking price on a 500K home and gotten themselves involved in bidding wars for houses in the outer suburbs look like they were right or wrong to do so in the coming year/years or will the FOMO come back to bite them?

#84 Terry on 12.03.20 at 10:32 pm

DELETED

#85 Cowtown Cowboy on 12.03.20 at 10:37 pm

45 Dave on 12.03.20 at 5:51 pm
Why buy anything in Calgary when it the province is run by a nut job who is refusing to diversify away from oil and gas–an industry in decline, and cutting funding for special needs and education to give tax breaks for oil and gas companies?

Love it or leave it ya commie pinko puke

#86 red falcon on 12.03.20 at 10:57 pm

When you were born should not factor in investing. Every age, be it boomer, Xgen, Ygen, Millenial…. it all has it’s own benefits to take advantage of.
In the Millenial case, it’s very simple, maximize that TFSA and investments to have maximum income. In this day and age, Cash is King but ever increasing income makes you the emperor under the sun lol.

To have people buy houses without a strong financial foundation is like putting the cart before the horse. Sure you’ll get some there, but it’ll take alot longer than before… get your horse and cart in the right order, and so everything else will follow.

So simple this idea, but Sheeple don’t listen, they dumbz, they sufferz, and they deserve what’s coming to them. So maybe Trudeau, our god fearing shepherd, will guide his dumbz flock over the debt edge, and all will despair.

#87 red falcon on 12.03.20 at 10:58 pm

When you were born should not factor in investing. Every age, be it boomer, Xgen, Ygen, Millenial…. it all has it’s own benefits to take advantage of.
In the Millenial case, it’s very simple, maximize that TFSA and investments to have maximum income. In this day and age, Cash is King but ever increasing income makes you the emperor under the sun lol.

To have people buy houses without a strong financial foundation is like putting the cart before the horse. Sure you’ll get some there, but it’ll take alot longer than before… get your horse and cart in the right order, and so everything else will follow.

So simple this idea, but Sheeple don’t listen, they dumbz, they sufferz, and they deserve what’s coming to them. So maybe Trudeau, our god fearing shepherd, will guide his dumbz flock over the debt edge, and all will despair.

#88 Cowtown Cowboy on 12.03.20 at 11:00 pm

Lots of hating on Cowtown tonight…

You can’t get a new build in my neck of the woods for under 1.2Mil for about 2700 sq/f

New condos down the street are about $600k to start..all real estate is local, even within cities…you might get a bargain in COVID city(NE)

#89 steve on 12.03.20 at 11:01 pm

Nonplused, what line of work has had the starting salary double since 1995?

#90 red falcon on 12.03.20 at 11:03 pm

When it comes to financial wrong doings like this Sheeple lady and her ilk, this slang always comes to mind:

Financial lessons in Life will be repeated until they are learned, or until they go broke.

#91 macroman on 12.03.20 at 11:20 pm

Courtney should move to Courtney and get a life.

You city slickers are missing out. But please stay there…

#92 macroman on 12.03.20 at 11:23 pm

DELETED

#93 Nonplused on 12.04.20 at 12:01 am

#71 Drinking on 12.03.20 at 9:07 pm
#57 Nonplused

A lot of great inputs, greatly enjoyed what you had to say until you said “oil is on is way out” yep, I agree, maybe in 50 yrs, until then, it is going nowhere.

—————————-

I said “If oil truly is on the way out”. I don’t believe it either. But it will remain volatile.

#94 Nonplused on 12.04.20 at 12:06 am

#77 C V on 12.03.20 at 9:40 pm

I know young people buying new trucks and vehicles and have blown through so much cash in their younger years, when you can buy an old SUV and slap some big tires on and go to the Rockies for almost the same amount of fun-maybe more even.

———————————-

I miss my 1999 Jeep Cherokee. Didn’t have traction control or fancy buttons to tell it what kind of dirt you were on, but it never let me down. Sadly my daughter spun it out on some black ice. Her and her passenger were uninjured but you don’t need too many bumps on an old car before insurance won’t fix it. It was still running though, not sure why she had it towed.

The great thing about running such an old SUV was that I could actually afford to insure my daughter on it. Plus I didn’t care if she backed into something.

#95 Diamond Dog on 12.04.20 at 12:50 am

#65 DON on 12.03.20 at 8:15 pm

Russia is pushing Sputnik. Media in North America has been drowning Sputnik’s PR out with Moderna and Pfizer but its not for Sputnik’s lack of trying. What I don’t like about Sputnik isn’t just the lame “11 participant non peer viewed” trials announced 2 weeks ago claiming 92% efficacy. Same as Moderna, sound familiar? Pfizer wouldn’t release their trial parameters and why should they, too soon right? There’s nothing compelling them to “at this time” but if they don’t release participant demographics of their trials to shareholders at some point before they roll out their vaccine to the masses…

Meanwhile, we’re all supposed to believe that Pfizer being the top lobby Pharmaceutical donor to Republican politicians and bullying their way to the front of the line with legal political bribes is somehow supposed to conflate for folks that their science is the best. Then why not disclose demographics of their trial participants if Pfizer is so confident? Inquiring minds already know, its all about money. Access, “we got the best or we’ll find out after we all get paid”. Greed and self interests, it gets heavy, just makes one want to tune out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0G383538qzQ

The problem with Sputnik is their platform is based on S proteins (open another window, scroll down)

https://sputnikvaccine.com/about-vaccine/

The problem with genetic coding S protein platforms is, some S proteins promote ADE.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement

Now, to be fair, I’m sure Sputnik is not going to use S proteins that promote ADE at least, knowingly. Unfortunately though, virus’s have been known to mutate increasing the likelihood of using different S proteins to reinfect than the vaccine antibodies were intended for and if the mutation is successful in using S proteins that promote ADE, that could spell bad news for those inoculated with Sputnik’s vaccine (and any other vaccine using genetic coding S protein platforms). The information is there as to why, read it for yourselves.

#96 Steve French on 12.04.20 at 1:08 am

#48 Faron #52 Stone:

Interesting.

Influ-Lewenza’s model B&D portfolio from Sep. 2019 includes 16 separate ETFs– which is the same number as the one I have going.

– Steve

#97 Peter Kook on 12.04.20 at 1:32 am

This is why Vancouver is so affordable for Canadians:

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-offshore-investor-of-45-million-in-vancouver-housing-claims-fraud

The two “investors” fraud each other, otherwise it would never become known. Meanwhile, police is busy catching bike panhandlers

#98 Buy? Curious? on 12.04.20 at 2:33 am

Garth, as much as I love reading your literary art work, the Elvis Stojko of Blogs, if you will, it amazes me how inadequate the education system is! What were they teaching back in the 80’s and 90’s, oh, that’s right, nothing. I mean, the question that you post as an example must also freak out during eclipses and believe in UFO’s. “People, just do your thing. Embrace the flow!” That’s my free, vague advice. Also do 100 push ups every morning. It keeps the haters behind their keyboards (right, east coast lifestyle loser?)

#99 BillyBob on 12.04.20 at 4:28 am

#78 MF on 12.03.20 at 9:48 pm
68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.03.20 at 8

I read BillyBob’s anecdotal post and thought..it’s an anecdotal post. Period. Another simplification and gross generalization about millions and millions of people.

There are a lot of completely destitute boomers out there, but there are a lot of wealthy ones too. Personality, choices, luck, all determine one’s level of success. Anyone with a teeny bit of people skills can see that. Crying about boomers is just as cringeworthy, by the way.

Now, there are vague similarities between individuals in generations, but to paint everyone in that generation as the same can only be explained as an expression of personal bias and lack of exposure (i guess). Throwaway material.

So Fartz, if you think this all sounds like the incorrect, over simplifications you make repeatedly on here about other groups in society, you are correct.

Lol millennials can’t afford 1.4 million dollar houses because the buy $4 coffees. Kindergarten teachers making 50k/year are bankrupting the world.

Unbelievable.

MF

=============================

An anecdote to illustrate a problem that goes far beyond your (as usual) cherry-picked bits such as $4 coffees. Are you saying there aren’t millions and millions of people with questionable debt? Or that it’s not their fault, they all had no choice? The amounts are completely not the point, refusing to own one’s personal choices is the fatal problem.

Of course the shallow, foolish attitudes and values I described aren’t limited to Millennials, they cross all generations. Although I don’t remember my grandparents expressing much entitlement. They just worked and got on with it. Other than your standard lame counter of “generalizing”, what exactly do you bring to the discussion?

But hey, you do you, seems to be working well. I’m sure it must be fun constantly feeling helpless and victimized by “1.4 million dollar houses” you’ll never afford.

#100 Under the radar on 12.04.20 at 4:55 am

My builder client who I finance , sold a full Reno this week for 3m . On the market for a Few days full list . Gorgeous work , pure eye candy, added a floor 16.5 x129 semi. In the heart of the 416 core. Location is everything and smart people know a hollowed out core is temporary. My detached garage in Mono is bigger.

#101 Cheekm on 12.04.20 at 6:31 am

The VAX has never defeated the FLU so why do you think it will stop the VID?

#102 old dog on 12.04.20 at 8:01 am

#32 Palpha on 12.03.20 at 4:59 pm
____________________________________

hyperinflation is not likely. people throw that word around and just have no clue what it means. if you’re worried about hyperinflation, a house is the last thing you want to own.

get a hold of Constantino Bresciani-Turroni’s book (free pdf here https://mises.org/library/economics-inflation-study-currency-depreciation-post-war-germany)

inflation is coming. that’s for sure. but nothing remotely like hyperinflation

#103 Dharma Bum on 12.04.20 at 9:36 am

#31 Active

$1M invested, collecting CPP/OAS, renting in Calgary, and what’s on the mind of a 65 year old?…buying a condo? LMAO…
——————————————————————–

Seriously.

Has this lady ever read one of Garth’s posts?

If so, her reading comprehension is non existent, or she is hopelessly dense.

The message has always been clear, unambiguous, and consistent.

Some people are incorrigible.

#104 NSNG on 12.04.20 at 9:39 am

I think we are pretty close to the bottom of our RE depravity. On Como Lake Road in Coquitlam, B.C., a church has put itself up for sale.

The sign actually says “for redevelopment”.

Oh my!

Getting that rezoned could be hell.

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.20 at 9:45 am

@#78 MF

Not to worry MF
I may generalize but the finance companies know where their bread is buttered…

https://www.payl8r.com/

Just buy it now…..dont worry about the price…..you can pay later.

#106 Dr V on 12.04.20 at 10:13 am

103 old dog – can you briefly explain why owning a house during hyperinflation is not a good idea?

#107 Classical Liberal Millennial on 12.04.20 at 11:17 am

HSBC with 0.99% variable rates announced today. Houses are only going up.

#108 IHCTD9 on 12.04.20 at 11:38 am

YAMAHA just came out with a sweet new UTV. The Wolverine RMAX 1000, in three trim levels. GPS, fully adjustable shocks, 30″ tires, 14″F, 16″R of suspension travel and 14″ of ground clearance, 108 HP.

These things used to be cheap little buggies to buzz down the trail with and do a little work on a couple acres. Now they are head on competition for a trophy truck. Some have hard cabs, heat and A/C now too.

That RMAX is ONE SWEET MACHINE – but the middle of the line is 27 grand. Apparently CanAm’s top of the line turbo 4 seater is 40 grand (cough!).

Alas, the dealership showroom floor is empty, even their used inventory is pretty much sold out. I likely won’t even be able to lay my eyes on one of these sweet 1000’s in real life for months – they’re sold before they even arrive.

#109 G on 12.04.20 at 11:49 am

Hi #1, re: When

Maybe sooner than you might think, hopefully.
I just saw this from today, see link.

COVID Moonshot Effort Generates “Elite” Antivirals

The open-science initiative produced four promising compounds that kill coronavirus. Now, they’re prepping those drugs for human trials.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/artificial-intelligence/medical-ai/covid-moonshot-generates-elite-antivirals

#110 Faron on 12.04.20 at 11:55 am

#97 Steve French on 12.04.20 at 1:08 am

#48 Faron #52 Stone

Of course Lewenza does, it’s his JOB! A pro can and does track numerous assets and asset classes. An amateur should not. Of course, it doesn’t stop me from trying and probably wont you. Pride is an emotion and hubris never ends well in the stonk market…

#111 Huh? on 12.04.20 at 12:09 pm

Let me see if I have this correct:

Canadian real estate

Positive growth, economy and immigration prices up
4% mortgages prices up
2% mortgages prices up
Stress test implemented prices up
Foreign buyers rampant prices up
Foreign buyer tax prices up
Financial devastation and halted immigration prices up
6% unemployment prices up
12% unemployment prices up
Condo glut prices up
Worldwide pandemic and lockdowns prices up

Stock markets in the last 6 months:

Real data and news could be better than expected, good, bad, neutral, catastrophic,dire…prices up

OK then.

#112 Ael Idich on 12.04.20 at 12:24 pm

#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.03.20 at 9:24 pm
#53 Dolce Vita on 12.03.20 at 6:55 pm
#44 Ponzius Pilatus

Just a thought, subscribe to the Commie dailies as I do (Twitter, web sites), read them say for a year, then come back, weigh in and not before.
———
How’s your fascist buddy Matteo Salvini doing?

Oh please, Salvini‘s got nothing on Socks and his cabal in the fascism department. Haha, the 5Star and Liberals just announced their Christmas lockdown plans… an absurdity only seasoned lefty fascists come up with. And yet, to keep this blog friendly, houses are much nicer and more affordable Italy. Have a great weekend!

#113 KLNR on 12.04.20 at 12:26 pm

@
@#94 Billybob
“It’s not the $1.50 at Timmies. It’s the $4.50 at Starbucks. It’s that plus the cell phone plan that’s more than needed. Same with the internet. The vehicle that’s far more than needed or can can be afforded. Then the second one cause the student beater wasn’t good enough for someone at the ripe old age of 25. The streaming services that can’t be done without. The clothing that has to be of a certain quality. The laptop that just had to be replaced. The education loans to which no thought was given whatsoever as to the possible ROI. On and on and on. And they are actually on the more responsible end of the spectrum in their cohort. But somehow according to you it’s all the fault of Boomers and offshoring and evil corps and whomever else.

Meanwhile, I’m 20 years older than them and live far more modestly than they do now, let alone than I did 20 years ago. Sorry, can’t blame that all on everyone else.

In short, it’s about values, not a specific dollar amount. If you think that previous generations didn’t struggle with lack of jobs and money you’re delusional. I’m just glad that as a Gen X’er I didn’t have access to the credit that folks can now bury themselves in. In my early working days I tracked every cent (I still do) because I had to. If I had $20 left with 3 days until the next payday, that was it, that’s what I was feeding myself with. Figure it out, or go hungry. Now you just order $35 sushi on UberEats and blame being broke on “the wages”. Ok.

Yeah yeah I know, six feet of snow walking uphill each way to school and all that. But the life skills from always being close to the edge financially in the beginning served me well when eventually the money came, and come it did. Make the money first, then the lifestyle. The order is important. That’s got nothing to do with a coffee a day.

You can complain all you want about sweatshop workers and the lack of wage increases and so on but it won’t change a thing. Maybe it’s time you stop complaining about things you can’t change, and instead adapt to reality? There’s a whole world of opportunity.

But, much like my own beloved family, advice from anyone born BEFORE 1981 will no doubt be completely ignored. Far easier to protest against the unfairness of life.”

++++

Brilliant!
I was distracted and didnt see your comment until now.

My apologies for posting it AGAIN to anyone with the attention span of a gnat that cant read through it.

In a nutshell,
Boomers, Gen X’ers whatever……. didnt have the CREDIT available to them that the kids today do….

Its not the Boomers fault people.
You’re allowing yourselves to be sucked into the credit vortex…..

Look in the mirror…. Wants vs Needs.

in short, folks need to man up (can I still say that?)
and stop blaming everyone else for their shortcomings.
Applies to all generations.

#114 JB CONDO DEATH on 12.04.20 at 12:41 pm

#26 Linda on 12.03.20 at 4:49 pm

Courtney, if I were you I’d talk to friends/acquaintances who may have had experience with condo ownership. Most retired ladies I know have emphatically said it was a mistake to buy a condo. While the lure of owning is strong, the reality of ever increasing condo fees plus the threat of special assessments – not to mention the risk of buying into a dodgy building – far outweighed any benefits of ownership.

Hope you do have your nest egg invested in a balanced & diversified portfolio paying ultra low management fees & are not locked into a dead end GIC or some high cost fund offered by your bank. If you are in that situation, get the heck out as soon as you can.
……………………………………………………………
Most of these old mouldies have not freaking idea of how much they will be hosed with condo fees, assessments and insurance costs. The COL will crush them. If they do not have a significant bundle invested in a well diversified portfolio they will be eating cat food. Then again old ladies like cats. I hope the cat doesn’t mind going on a permanent diet. Most of these dumb people end up eventually selling and going back to the ground in a smaller town.

#115 IHCTD9 on 12.04.20 at 12:43 pm

#78 MF on 12.03.20 at 9:48 pm

Lol millennials can’t afford 1.4 million dollar houses because the buy $4 coffees.
___

The real reason you hear some Mils complaining about house prices, is because said complainers live where houses cost 1.4 million.

Drill down deeper, and you find said complainers don’t want to move where houses don’t cost 1.4 million because restaurants, bars, concerts etc. The excuses never fail to sound a little like cake eating.

The answer will remain the same, but said Mils don’t want to hear it. But, I’ll say it again just for kicks. Move to where the local job market supports the lifestyle you want to live, or don’t – but then please, for the love of all that is Holy, shut your pie holes about house prices in the area where you freely chose to live.

#116 calgary rip off on 12.04.20 at 12:46 pm

Good thinking Garth. If a person doesn’t have a solid job(what job is truly solid) then buying a mortgage is definitely risky if you are retired. In addition to being literally stuck, maintenance costs, condo fees(yuck), what about if your neighbours suck? Due to the lame zoning in Calgary most neighbours are too close. If they are retards and screw up and their house goes on fire, yours does too. Every day I thank God for protecting me on the roads in Calgary, protecting me when exercising, thanking for having a job and good health, and all the unforeseen worries that I have. Most of the people aren’t too bright in Calgary. The antimaskers. The people who own a $200K but due to the market that same house is “worth” $500K. Calgary is a mess and likely will be a continual mess as other than clean air and heavily calcified water and oftentimes cool temperatures the environment is hostile. Frankly it is terrifying to live here.

Good on you to offer advice to protect this retiree. Unless you have $120K in solid income and have a patient nature, don’t come to Calgary. Its overpriced with retard drivers. Next year if the mayor has his way residential speed limits will drop to 30 km/hr.

People who live here will argue of how much everything is worth. No. All that is grown is hay much of the year and there are too many alcoholics. If things are so wonderful why do people drink so much?

#117 Mattl on 12.04.20 at 1:14 pm

#76 Jason M on 12.03.20 at 9:27 pm
Good post Garth. I totally agree with you the one in Calgary. Prices in many neighbourhoods are still correcting & you can rent for only a few hundred more than condo fees, taxes insurance etc. Have a friend who has a gorgeous 2 bedroom suite with two huge panoramic view balconies they bought in 2012 in Calgary for $300,000. Comparables in their building have gone this summer for $245,000, and currently one is listed for $230,000. That’s $70,000 less than they paid over 8 years ago! There are currently over 2500 listings for rent in Calgary on kijiji. https://www.kijiji.ca/b-apartments-condos/calgary/c37l1700199

————————————————————

Unless he has to sell, I don’t see why the fact other units are selling for less matters. By your accounts he is living in a beautiful place, with carrying costs around $1500. 8 years later, he probably has a mortgage around what the other units are selling for. 8 years more, and he will never make another mortgage payment (unless he moves up).

Sure, he won’t make money, but what would his experience have been as a renter? 1 maybe 2 moves? 100k+ in rent? Seriously, how is what you described – living in a great place, with money borrowed at inflation – a hardship. Why does a property have to appreciate in value for a purchase to make sense? If rent isn’t wasted money, then property depreciation isn’t necessarily either.

And who knows what will happen in the future. I’d probably buy another unit. Calgary is clearly at / near bottom, don’t be surprised if the picture looks much different 8 years from now.

#118 Shankara on 12.04.20 at 2:08 pm

Hey Garth,

I found the perfect Christmas gift for you.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/02/entertainment/drake-candle/index.html

He recommends listening some of his stuff while , in order to get the full effect.

enjoy.

#119 DON on 12.04.20 at 4:53 pm

@DiamondDog

Cheers!

Thanks for the links.

#120 Keyser Soze on 12.04.20 at 11:54 pm

This is not helping. More fuel to the fire: https://www.ratespy.com/sub-1-mortgage-rates-come-to-canada-120317070

#121 Diamond Dog on 12.05.20 at 1:10 am

Looks like I need to correct myself, Pfizer has reported demographics on Nov 30th and as expected, they are short on numbers representing color. Blacks are demographically make up 10% of trial participants in the U.S. while blacks make up 14.7% of the gen pop, while Latino’s make up 13% of U.S. trial participants, short of representing 18% of the U.S. population. :

https://www.pfizer.com/science/coronavirus/vaccine