Hang on

Three more sleeps till Chrystia rocks your world. On Monday the shiny new finance minister will give an update. Not a budget (like all the adult countries have received during the pandemic). Just a back-of-the-envelope kinda thing to keep tab of Justin’s spending (another $532 million on Friday for indigenous folks).

Remember the last deficit number? Right, $342 billion. The most ever by a margin of almost three hundred billion. (By the way, one billion is 1,000 times a million.) This blog asked its sketchy readers for estimates on what the latest shortfall would be, since there have been many, many spending announcements of late.

Over 300 of you responded. The reader who comes closest to the announced number on Monday will be granted a guest post here – and the freedom to embarrass yourself on the topic of your choosing. It will be an epic moment.

Meanwhile RBC is guesstimating the deficit will be $370 billion for the year. In 2021, even with the pandemic ending, the bank says Canada will almost double the worst-ever Conservative shortfall, with the Liberal red ink amounting to another $90 billion as more spending programs (child care, pharmacare, green infrastructure) click in. All this will push the accumulated national debt well over $1 trillion, becoming the momma of all problems down the road when interest rates snake higher. Yes, Millennials have no idea what lies ahead…

So, how do we afford this?

In the short term, the Bank of Canada prints the money, sends it to Trudeau and he spends it. This is backed by the issuance of government debt (bonds) which investors, mostly institutional, buy. The debt is considered ‘risk-free’ by financial markets, paying peanuts – currently just under half a per cent annually on five-year money. Over time this will change as the economy rebounds, inflation returns and investors demand more.

So the feds also need to raise more revenues to help cover spending. Promises made in the September Throne Speech alone (like looking after your kids and paying for your prescriptions) will cost between $19 billion and $44 billion a year. Extra. Forever. This stuff can’t happen without more taxes, since the bond-flogging thing will get extreme.

Warns the scary CD Howe Institute: “Taxpayers and policymakers should not underestimate the scale of tax increases needed if Ottawa increases spending as much as envisioned in the Speech from the Throne.” Its conclusion was that the only way to Hoover more billions from citizens without hurting the economy too much is through the GST. Yes, back up to 7%. So when added to the provincial sales tax, that means HST of 15% in Ontario and 17% in the Maritimes.

Meh. This would raise about $15 billion, not even enough to cover the latest Trudeau promises, let alone any Covid stuff (vaccinating everyone will cost $2 billion). So it’s likely there’ll be more changes coming in the Spring budget (not Monday’s update). A candidate for that is a higher capital gains inclusion rate.

Yeah, again. The anxiety over this ebbs and flows, but it looks increasingly like Mr. Socks will go postal on ‘the wealthy’ now that the virus has emboldened him to give silly speeches about a ‘great reset’ and a re-engineering of society. (Sheesh, we just want our shot…)

My pal, tax expert Jamie Golombek, points out that 90% of Canadians never report a capital gain. And of those who do, three-quarters of the total was declared by just 10% of that group, with incomes over a hundred grand. In fact 55% of all the taxable capital gains in Canada were reported by people earning in excess of $250,000. That’s only 160,000 folks – and they’re already in the 50%+ top tax bracket.

So, yup, this change would affect a relatively small number who already pay a disproportional amount, but it would affect them strongly. So it’s a good thing the tax system has little to do with fairness, and much more with punishment.

How would it work? Well, raising the inclusion rate to 75% (the direction we’re headed in) would mean three-quarters of a gain added to taxable income for a year, then subject to the marginal rate. Since the most affected people are in the 52% bracket, the capital gains tax goes up 50%.

So what, the masses cry? Should we shed tears for the 1%ers?

Nope. But higher taxes on the money people make from risking their capital means they may risk it less. That hurts expanding companies, new start-ups, financial markets, commercial real estate and ultimately pension funds, while it encourages investors to hang on to gains instead of selling assets and triggering tax. The move would also make it wise for people to focus on keeping assets inside RRSPs and especially TFSAs, where gains remain tax-free.

Well, whatever happens, something will happen. Current spending is unsustainable. Yet the prime minister wants to spend more. Since over 40% of voters pay no net tax with the burden heaped atop the shoulders of a few, you can smell what’s coming. Chrystia wrote a landmark book on rich people, “and the fall of everyone else.” In her world, there would be no powerful wealthy folks. Just powerful political ones. And she plans on succeeding Trudeau.

Gulp.

162 comments ↓

#1 Leonardo Palozzi on 11.27.20 at 2:23 pm

Bring back Harper!

#2 EAT THE RICH on 11.27.20 at 2:25 pm

Sounds like a tasty Christmas dinner recipe to me :)

#3 zoey on 11.27.20 at 2:28 pm

I wonder how long the Government and the BoC can keep the facade that stock markets and RE always go up ? With the jobs that are still being bled and will be bled next year we will move into stagflation if we haven’t already. If you look at the amount of stimulus thats been pumped in by the U.S( and Canada ) these economies should have rockets under them and they don’t. Without continued massive support the stock market and RE would really be in the toilet right now. Maybe its still coming.

#4 Alberta Ed on 11.27.20 at 2:29 pm

Feels like we’re ripe for an election.

#5 Flop... on 11.27.20 at 2:30 pm

Probably have to cough up two guest posts.

One for the preliminary number next week, and another one actual number when the dust settles off in the distance.

When I posted my original Moneyball number of 641B, there wasn’t many, if any, starting with a 6.

Later on I saw a lotto 649 bid and a couple in the early 6’s so my window is small.

On the small chance that I win, I said I would defer to someone that really wants to do it.

That person is Nonplused, on the proviso he doesn’t try to scare the poop out of the kids like Dolce did…

M46BC

#6 Former Navy Chief on 11.27.20 at 2:37 pm

Maybe I’m naïve, but I’ll ask the question anyways.

In previous times of great national turmoil such as wars, the government implemented various measures to raise funds, such as Victory Bonds.

Since this is surely a national emergency, would COVID Bonds be a viable option to raise funds without raising taxes above what they are now?

#7 Freedom First on 11.27.20 at 2:37 pm

Gulp.-Garth

Yep. That about sums it up.

Freedom First

#8 Brett in Calgary on 11.27.20 at 2:38 pm

Humans are exquisitely attuned to incentives. Incentivize the wrong thing and you reap what you sow.

#9 gimme stuff on 11.27.20 at 2:40 pm

They should just tax a gain in selling a house as a capital gain. Also need to cut some EI as it pays out for too long.

#10 RMTL on 11.27.20 at 2:40 pm

So sell in 2020 to trigger the gain and buy-back in 2021?

#11 Craig on 11.27.20 at 2:45 pm

This is why they tarred and feathered politicians in the past.

#12 604sam on 11.27.20 at 2:52 pm

Fourth post, maybe?

Hey Garth, how much can I day trade in my TFSA? How many transactions per week? I can’t find any concrete definitions from the CRA.

There is none. If you day trade you risk being hit for full tax on all gains. So, don’t. – Garth

#13 Overheardyou on 11.27.20 at 2:56 pm

Am I the only one saddened by the fact that so many hate on the wealthy? Do they not realize the amount of jobs and economic value this group provides?

I also find it sad that people attribute income to being wealthy. A guy making $150K but spends $200K is not wealthy. To be fair, we were never taught ‘how to budget’ in school.

#14 bdwy sktrn on 11.27.20 at 2:58 pm

harvester of many nations…

GMC Sierra AT4 6.2L double cab 4×4 – $950.00/mo.”

DozerDude i thought you liked to fix stuff/machines/cars etc.

just paid $2900 (one lifetime payment) for a beauty gmc yukon loaded and nice leather (a must for big dogs).
the seat heaters are so fast and so powerful its hard to believe. dont see how one could be more comfortable in any vehicle new or not. you damn near need an eng. degree to work out all of the seat adjustment controls.
no fancy computer screens – a phone mount is fine w me.

i did get to play with wrenches a bit for new brakes and rotors (gmc parts=great prices and options)a couple fuses but that was it.
plus lower insurance for a nonfinanced vehicle

84 nearly 1k payments for a shiny new one? i’ll keep 81 of them thanks.

#15 Daniel on 11.27.20 at 2:59 pm

What about taxing rich home owners instead?

#16 Cliff on 11.27.20 at 3:01 pm

Here’s a thought. How about the gov’t terminates ALL discretionary spending budgets. Let’s start with money sent to the UN and all their programs as well as every dime allocated to climate change programs. Concentrate on maintenance and social service programs only, using the money Mr. Spendthrift runs around the world throwing into the air for anyone to grab. Radical idea, right? Pay your bills first.

#17 A Borrower Bee on 11.27.20 at 3:03 pm

I wonder if increasing the capital gains inclusion rate will have the effect of just goosing the housing market even more for a number of years. That can’t be healthy.

We are raising our family in a condo but have money in non-registered accounts. Our peers have largely just bought houses and real estate is their investment. With shrewd maneuvering and some leverage, I managed to be up about 20% on the non-reg so far in 2020. But with the leverage on investments being much less than on a personal residence, their overall dollar growth is likely still more than mine, all tax-free. And they spent the summer playing with their dogs (which they can have as a result of the yards which they also have), while I spent it in front a spreadsheet calculating ACBs and incorporating the superficial loss rule. And the condo is worth about 1% less than we paid ten years ago, so it’s not like any money is coming in from owning it.

Will middle-class and upper middle-class folks even bother with a non-reg anymore? A yard and a golden retriever almost seems to be a better use of money.

Sigh…

#18 The West on 11.27.20 at 3:07 pm

The Laffer Curve!!

(we’re pooched)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve

#19 Faron on 11.27.20 at 3:07 pm

One thought: If tax forces people to trade less, mightn’t that be a good thing? Seems our current trading dynamic leads to goosing profit in the name of attracting fast money. If corps see that investors are in it for the long haul, maybe more capital will go to reinvesting in the business? Or just higher dividends. Yech.

For the record, I love receiving dividends but hate them in principle. Whenever a bank dings me a fee I just see it as supporting a share holder. Direct transfer of wealth, most likely upward.

#20 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 11.27.20 at 3:07 pm

The whole tax the rich is really a distraction. It is a rallying cry/banner. Ofcourse the true rich aren’t enough of them so a new definition of “rich” will actually emerge, say income over 60k yearly and assets over 1 mil. There you have it now you tax pretty much everyone who has money to spend. That is what the communists did in the past,a true and tried method of rallying the uneducated/ fearful masses behind a reasonable goal and move the bar in reality. I Remember the books and opinions contrary to the government banning ,the enemy of the state moniker towards people who did more/better then average,the list can go on. Don’t necessarily think it is part of a greater conspiracy, as the epression goes paraphrasing here: Don’t attribute to malice what can be explained by sheer incompetence.
Time for us as individuals to push more towards the middle,acknowledge that others having different opinions is fine and life is not fair,so some well do better than others and we should all have a chance to succeed that is up to us,not the government of the day.

#21 TurnerNation on 11.27.20 at 3:08 pm

The business of sports. Toronto’s ball game stadium, Skydome was built in 1989 with massive cost overruns borne by taxpayers, natch; then later on sold to a billionaire (Rogers) for pennies on the dollars. Learn how the real game is played lads.

In the summer I flagged its closure and likely outcomes. Here is is. Yep CV did that! Score: Billionaires 1. Taxpayers 0.
LAND is the goal of this WW3: THIS is why the Blue Jays were banned from return to Canada. LAND. The CV story was just cover. They are playing us…

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition that the owner of the Toronto Blue Jays wants to demolish the Rogers Centre and construct a new stadium as part of a redevelopment. The Globe’s Andrew Willis writes that Rogers Communications and Brookfield Asset Management are working with city, provincial and federal government officials on a plan that would effectively cut the Rogers Centre in half. The partners would build a new, baseball-focused stadium on the foundations of the southern end of the current facility and adjacent parking lots. The northern portion of the 12.7-acre site would be turned into residential towers, office buildings, stores and public space. Rogers is also considering building a new stadium on a lakefront site if plans for the Rogers Centre fall through. The Rogers Centre, with its retractable roof, opened in 1989 as SkyDome and cost $570-million, with taxpayers picking up a significant portion of the cost. Rogers acquired the stadium in 2004 for $25-million. © 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

….. as expected since summertime. Once you see that Land is the game here:

#12 TurnerNation on 08.29.20 at 11:29 am
When will Toronto Blue Jays baseball team be coming back? More to the point why were they barred from the country? Was it to ‘keep us safe’ or..
Late last year — I believe — likely in Toronto Star a news article appeared. Said that their stadium the Rogers Centre (nee Skydome) was at the end of its lifespan. How convenient the stadium is empty now? If all wars are fought over LAND and we are in WW3 that stadium sits on a juicy plot no? Directly in front of it at 325 Front St is set to be torn down, into giant towers. I’m calling this the biggest asset grab since 2008. And 2001. The war to end all wars? That the Crown Bankers are using the Crown Virus to take back Crown Land.

#130 TurnerNation on 09.07.20 at 1:25 pm
They even kicked the Blue Jays out of the country. I don’t bet Skydome will reopen. As mentioned the land directly in front of it already is slated for the massive towers.

—————————–

As this is a Boomer weblog and I have parents of age: Welcome to the New System. Had enough of the oppression? They invite you to check out yourself….remember that all compassion has been removed in the New System. You have two choices: heartbreaking CV protocols; or see yourself out. Normalcy is not an option. It has been removed. The ways of the Old System are over.
Wouldn’t it make sense to let them live their lives freely and stay healthy? Oh this is not about health…surely you all know this.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/facing-another-retirement-home-lockdown-90-year-old-chooses-medically-assisted-death-1.5197140
Residents eat meals in their rooms, have activities and social gatherings cancelled, family visits curtailed or eliminated. Sometimes they are in isolation in their small rooms for days. These measures, aimed at saving lives, can sometimes be detrimental enough to the overall health of residents that they find themselves looking into other options.

#22 blogshark on 11.27.20 at 3:10 pm

TFSA will go bye bye soon enough

Nope. It is the most popular investment vehicle by accounts opened. – Garth

#23 hwy_str on 11.27.20 at 3:14 pm

“The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings. The inherent virtue of Socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.” – Winston Churchill

#24 blogshark on 11.27.20 at 3:15 pm

#18 blogshark on 11.27.20 at 3:10 pm

Nope. It is the most popular investment vehicle by accounts opened. – Garth

All the more reason PMs Trudeau, Freeland, and perhaps Carney in sequence will raid it.

#25 X on 11.27.20 at 3:15 pm

How much would the CRA bring in if they upped the cap gains rate? Would it really make that much of a dent in the debt?

#26 mike from mtl on 11.27.20 at 3:19 pm

Again with the threat of changing the inclusion rate, maybe yes but really that’d be more for optics rather than real cash grab. If implemented the CRA would probably collect the equivalent of lunch money, what’s the point?

Income taxes are already quite onerous. GST, maybe but that disproportionately affects the lower earners, not a good look. Corporate tax, well blood from a stone. Dividends and Cap gains, well a hundred million or so is not going to put even a dent. Housing is the last heavy piggy bank to break but politically a non-starter.

#27 Dolce Vita on 11.27.20 at 3:20 pm

#5 Flop…

“That person is Nonplused, on the proviso he doesn’t try to scare the poop out of the kids like Dolce did…”

Funny guy.

My Comments are evidence based. I mean what can I tell you Flop, another COVID-19 day on Planet Earth scares me too sometimes.

BTW, the Chinese just slapped +200% tariff on Australian wines.

Oz MSUPs to the PRC not working so far. Probably worried about kangaroo fertilizer getting into Oz vineyard “micro European climate soil” and those nasty Koala’s munching on the leaves thinking they are Eucalyptus and of course, imparting their unique bouquet and flavor to Oz wine.

Ya OK, I made that last paragraph up.

Had fun doing it.

————————–

The tariff is true. Could not believe the PRC would do that and for what reason? Yup, just another COVID-19 day on Planet Earth.

#28 BlogDog123 on 11.27.20 at 3:23 pm

Tax hikes that might not work:

– Gas tax, hidden excise tax on car fuels. Not popular…Does not affect WFH people much.
– Cigarette tax hike. More smuggling results. Fewer smokers nowadays.
– Alcohol tax hike. Small amounts for the treasury.
– Luxury item tax. Pisses off folks buying a camper/trailer, sports car, etc…

Taxes that might work but will piss off the electorate:

– GST to 7%
– OAS clawback at earlier than 70k or whatever the threshold currently is
– Change the lower tax bracket values from 15% to 17%, 20.5 to 23%, etc…
– Minimum tax (can’t let folks with large investment losses sneak away from taxman)

fed rates/brackets:
(now):
15% on the first $48,535 of taxable income, plus
20.5% on the next $48,534 of taxable income (on the portion of taxable income over 48,535 up to $97,069), plus
26% on the next $53,404 of taxable income (on the portion of taxable income over $97,069 up to $150,473), plus
29% on the next $63,895 of taxable income (on the portion of taxable income over 150,473 up to $214,368), plus
33% of taxable income over $214,368

#29 Dolce Vita on 11.27.20 at 3:36 pm

Instead, they should have a Toronto, Montréal and Atlantic Bubble (former) tax.

They voted Justin in.

They should have to pay for him.

Leave the other 2/3 of the country out of it (and gnarly expats with Capital Gains so far “can kicked down the road” thanks to an NR5, 1 year left).

N.B. big RED BLOBS:

https://i.imgur.com/QrmT4eS.png

———————-

Looking at that photo of yours Garth with Justin and Freeland, the 1st thing that came to mind was Justin thinking (if he is even capable of that):

“Please, please, please Mommy, let me buy that new Reset thingy, green whatever WWF Canada Gerry told me to buy, and the other stuff HRH King Singh told me to buy too…I want it all, all of it, now, now, now, maybe more.”

#30 FuddleDuddler on 11.27.20 at 3:36 pm

OAS Budget 2012 – 38 billion (more in 2020)
CPP Assets on hand 2020 – 397 Billion

These two government bodies alone represent some $450 Billion + in assets (YOUR MONEY). Add is GIS, Welfare and all the other government programs and things really add up.

So in 2021~2022, Universal Basic Income or “UBI” will be introduced.

CPP, OAS, welfare, GIS and all other programs will be closed down. The assets of these programs will be folded into government coffers “to pay for the UBI.

EVERYBODY will be entitled to UBI.

However if you earn more than a meager amount your UBI will be clawed back to NOTHING. As in ZERO.

Soooo….if you have a pension, or retirement savings delviering income (RRSP, RRIF etc.) you will earn too much $ to qualify for UBI.

And CPP and OAS will be gone.

Yup, all that money that you paid into CPP with every paycheck, the taxes you paid that should fund OAS…all will be confiscated so that the UBI can be put in place.

And most people won’t qualify for UBI because they saved for retirement and have too much income to qualify.

Boom! Goodbye CPP, OAS, GIS, etc.

To think all you boomers paid all that money in just so the new generation can take it!

ROTFLMAO

#31 Trimtab on 11.27.20 at 3:45 pm

Whatever comes down on Monday it will surely include the buzz words of “building back better”, great “reset” and a “re-imagining” of a kumbaya new world where everyone has a digital ID to prove they are covid/cootie free and a compliant little cog – as has been repeated by Biden and many a world leader. It’s seems this is all part of a global plan:
https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/harnessing-power-digital-id

#32 Dogman01 on 11.27.20 at 3:46 pm

Had an expert on radio last night speaking about why Canada has lost the capability to manufacture vaccine based on a formula.

https://globalnews.ca/calgary/program/charles-adler-tonight-newstalk770/

He made an interesting observation, that Canadian political priorities and decisions are made based on a Banker\Finance perspective vs a science technology perspective. Canada, in his opinion is quite old school in its approach to technology capability and innovation. One of the reasons he had to leave to pursue his field elsewhere.

You often need people with experience of a different place to contrast things to.

This may explain why our economy seems to be so focused on Real Estate to the detriment of other industries.

Seems quite dangerous to me to not have capability in medical or manufacturing, creating a dependency on others whom may not be there when you need them.

There is resilience in retaining multiple competencies.

#33 Leftover on 11.27.20 at 3:48 pm

If capital gains taxes need to be increased then they should be broadened, not deepened. Principal residences in other words.

That kills so many birds with one stone. It raises revenue, reduces one of the main incentives for (over) investing in real estate, and directs capital to productive areas of the economy.

Freeland understands this as well as anyone. Just going after “rich” people might feel good but it won’t raise enough cash. Taxing houses and raising the GST are the most effective ways to increase revenue and improve the economy.

#34 philanthropist on 11.27.20 at 3:59 pm

An increase in the capital gains tax will just mean I am forced to give more to charity. I have an income well above six figures but expect to receive a large refund on my quarterly income tax installments next year thanks to the charitable donation receipts I’ve received. I hold shares purchased a quarter century ago at an average price of $6.84 a share which are currently valued at over $41 each and thus too expensive to sell. So every year I calculate how many I have to give in order to pay my federal and provincial taxes. I realize that this is costing me something but it’s a price I’m happy to pay in order to have my money spent by local charities I can monitor rather than irresponsible Ottawa politicians.

#35 Tua the Redeemer on 11.27.20 at 4:03 pm

I’ll guess 375.2B if it’s not too late.

And will write as many words allowed as to why the deficit is completely sustainable at current levels. AKA an intro to MMT.

#36 JSS on 11.27.20 at 4:18 pm

I wonder if or when an announcement will be made in the future to tax capital gains on sales of principal residences.
Another avenue to bring in taxes from. Oops sorry just gave a bad idea…

#37 S.Bby on 11.27.20 at 4:21 pm

The only thing left to tax is residential real estate capital gains.

#38 Squire on 11.27.20 at 4:22 pm

I wouldn’t be surprised to see an increase in HST, capital gains and home sales tax or capital gains tax of some sort when selling a principal resides and of course secondary residence.
Remember, the Finance Minister is not a finance person but a socialist.

#39 Keith on 11.27.20 at 4:25 pm

The problem with tax reform is that it is misapplied, across the political spectrum. When it is done correctly, the limitations of the policy become abundantly clear.

My understanding of the tax cut philosophy, is that it was explained by Milton Friedman and the Chicago School of Economics. It was not just about tax cuts, it was about shrinking the size of government in the economy, with the belief that the private sector role should be as large as possible on the grounds of efficiency.

In my experience, right wing governments are quick on the trigger with the easy and popular part, the tax cuts but a majority seem to struggle with shrinking the size of government. Those of us of a certain age remember Mulroney’s attempt to de index Old Age Security in the eighties, then walking it back by calling senior benefits a “sacred trust.” Mulroney’s tax cuts failed, his smallest deficit was 32 billion (inflation adjusted) and economic growth was never high enough to finance them. He labored under a hangover from the Trudeau era, but even with dramatically falling interest rates and tax cuts, the economy didn’t grow anywhere near fast enough.

The champion deficit slayer was Paul Martin, taking out an 80 billion (inflation adjusted) deficit in two and half years. He raised taxes, and was assisted by the provinces with his cuts to transfer payments that did a lot of the heavy lifting in reining in spending. At the end, the federal government was 13% of GDP, the smallest size in the current era.

Out in Lotusland, Premier Gordon Campbell ran the experiment by the book. He came to power in 2001 in BC, and put in place a 25% cut in provincial income tax. He left spending on education and health care alone (65% of the budget) and took an axe to the rest of government. The mathematics were clear – the remaining ministries were cut 40% in order to make up the numbers.

Even with Campbell, it was cut taxes first, balance the budget later. The economy grew slower in the tax cut era than under the preceding NDP administration, but eventually the books were balanced. The minimum wage, welfare rate and disability welfare rate were frozen for a decade. Teachers salaries fell to among the worst in Canada. That austerity, combined with skyrocketing real estate prices was the final blow to the working middle class in BC. Today only a small elite can afford a house in Vancouver or Victoria.

One of Gordon Campbell’s ministers has written a book about the tax cut/shrink the government era. His current take – don’t cut taxes to solve the problems of today. The right wing calls out their own.

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-abbotts-tales-of-tumultuous-days-include-his-difficult-days-as-mla

Trump’s tax cuts failed as well – the 4% growth of the first year, fell to 2.1 in the last year before the pandemic. The trillion dollar deficit remained firmly in place, with a vague commitment to a balanced federal budget in 2028 with no plan get there.

Of course, the eat the rich taxation of the left is a hopeless pipe dream as well. I have to say I haven’t seen meaningful progress on tax loopholes in my lifetime. Corporations offshoring profits from North America is still a popular sport these days. Sadly, the popularity of taxing the rich comes from the 45% who pay no taxes at all, the consequence of so many jobs that used to pay a middle class wage or salary, with meaningful participation in the tax system having been off shored, eliminated or deskilled over time to the point where our working middle class will soon be no more.

In the long run, the loss of a massive middle class must be paid for. By the many, with a massive cut in lifestyle and economic security, and by the few, with rollbacks of tax cuts that were mostly political – not economic

#40 Dolce Vita on 11.27.20 at 4:29 pm

I choked when I saw this Central Bank Assets Growth chart from 2 months ago:

https://i.imgur.com/iYEOCNx.png

Today, I think I got a shot at winning the “guess how threadbare Canada is and is going to become” deficit number at $1 Quadrillion.

—————————

Garth, I still say you should have made the winning number ala The Price is Right. Justin watches the show and he always goes over the actual price, like, always.

Imagine that?

#41 pPrasseur on 11.27.20 at 4:31 pm

Raising consumer taxes is politically difficult but fiscally efficient and economicaly less damaging than taxing investment.

Raising marginal rate is politically easy but economicaly damaging and won’t bring much money in the system. They may do it anyway to justifu the above…

Raising cap gain taxes is economic suicide, the number of people may be small but they invest a lot of capital (and this would bring near zero fiscal gain), so I’d be very surprise to see this.

Politics is one thing but the situation is bad enough that governments need to make economicaly sound choices at this point, this is no time for games as this country could very well be bankrupt in a few years.

#42 Piano_Man87 on 11.27.20 at 4:35 pm

So we stuff animals in cages, often with many more other animals, as small as possible to reduce costs, and grow them as fast as possible, to be slaughtered for human consumption.

Then pandemics occur. The above is a perfect environment for viruses to evolve. Stressed out animals have hampered immune systems. Lots of hosts means lots of vectors for evolution. Often animals are kept in cages with their own excrement. The unsanitary conditions increase the chance of spread. This is how the Spanish Flu started. How swine flu, and bird flu started. HIV is thought to have come from people eating wild monkeys in Africa. Ebola, from wild bats.

Then, if we have a bad one, we have to spend insane amounts of money to keep our economy going during the pandemic. And pray to science that we can invent a viable vaccine.

And then we can blame our governments when they spend too much.

And never address the root of the problem.

There will be more pandemics, and they will be caused by the same problems. There is no reason why this won’t happen again.

Just another reason to eat a plant based diet. If eating steak is worth what’s happening to society right now, and will be worth it again and again, by all means enjoy your steak. Just realize that this is the cost of it.

#43 Dolce Vita on 11.27.20 at 4:38 pm

Maybe not refreshing here on my side of the Atlantic but not finding my Comment about:

The Austrian Village name change article.

I mean come on, THAT was good. DW, de Telegraaf, La Stampa, Welt and others ran it. Those are reputable outfits. Cheeky, true, but GOOD.

I liked the guilt trip, if dogs could talk, article too. That dog was adorable.

Clip the parts you didn’t like out (like Hecubus, Big Mac Dome, etc.).

-FWIW My Liege; otherwise, Mea Culpa.

#44 Flop... on 11.27.20 at 4:41 pm

#27 Dolce Vita on 11.27.20 at 3:20 pm
#5 Flop…

“That person is Nonplused, on the proviso he doesn’t try to scare the poop out of the kids like Dolce did…”

Funny guy.

My Comments are evidence based. I mean what can I tell you Flop, another COVID-19 day on Planet Earth scares me too sometimes.

////////////////////////////

Hey Dolce, haven’t checked today, but when I checked the Melbourne news yesterday, they hadn’t had a single case of COVID in 28 days and were declaring the virus gone.

Took them something like 170 days of restrictions to get there though.

They might be able to celebrate Xmas and summer after all.

I’m currently walking around in a mask in 5 degree weather, with nothing of substance to look forward to.

Lucky I’m not a jealous guy…

M46BC

#45 zoey on 11.27.20 at 4:56 pm

#42 Piano_Man87

Agree 1000% …And although North America has far more respect for most animals than where this pandemic started we are no angels in North America. We love our domestic animals and will spend thousands at the vet to give them a great life but we so easily accept whats at the supermarket for some reason. No questions asked.

#46 Mike in Vancouver on 11.27.20 at 4:59 pm

Wouldn’t increasing the inclusion rate reduce liquidity as more folks will just subscribe to the “buy low, sell never” philosophy… or at least try to wait it out until another government comes to power and lowers it again.

#47 Dolce Vita on 11.27.20 at 4:59 pm

#39 Keith

That was well written.

Pretty much my take as well on shrinking Gov & tax cuts. Friedman fan here too and of the Austrian School of Economics (esp. Hayek).

Only thing I’d add w.r.t. Martin, as much as I liked him back then, he ended up underfunding healthcare contributions to the Provinces (recall Mike Harris TV ads about that with the Ottawa vs. Ontario penny jars as analogy).

Canada may well end up paying the price for those healthcare funding cuts near 20 yrs ago.

#48 WTF on 11.27.20 at 5:00 pm

Well Its fortunate TREB is here to help. Slimy shysters.

TREB Memo Demands Halt On Displaying Data Over 2 Years Old
TRREB sent member brokers a reminder this week that included a restriction that was previously unclear. The board notes several restrictions, but the biggest one is how much sold data can be shown. The memo reads, “Only two (2) years of sold data can be displayed or accessed at any time on the VOW, Website, or App.”

The updated interpretation of the bureau ruling is going to have a big impact. Starting soon, brokerages will restrict sold data to just 2 years. Much of the innovation that allowed people to research on their own will disappear. Instead Toronto will return back to it’s agent-driven model, where individuals have to request details from agents. This coincidentally will also conceal readily available sold data from the 2017 detached frenzy.

Does this mean another 10 yr battle with these pricks VS Competition Board or does Zillow Data Mining make this latest affront to providing accurate consumer information
moot? OR does the govt grow a set and sanction the weasels who continue to try and fleece the unsuspecting public.

Just Wonderful…

#49 raisemyrent on 11.27.20 at 5:07 pm

Damn. I missed the game. 732? I wonder what I’d write about now lol
Had a talk with friend recently. Over whatsapp, of course. Déficit came up. No one worried. MMT. It’s not real money. The government can buy as many bonds from itself as it wants. No big deal. Taxes won’t go up because people won’t vote for those politicians. The rich can pay. Damn money laundering foreigners the government should not allow them.
Yes. All of that came up. From a group of university educated, west coast, upper middle class adults pushing 40.
Be scared.

#50 Stoph on 11.27.20 at 5:08 pm

I suspect that the phrase of ‘asking more from those who financially profited from the covid pandemic’ will be used when talking about how the government plans to raise revenues. This is in line with what Jag has suggested and is similar to the phrase of ‘asking those with the most to do a little bit more to help those in Canada with less’ that Justin used in the past.

#51 Dave on 11.27.20 at 5:13 pm

Why aren’t we taxing gains from real estate? This would not just affect the wealthy, like capital gains would.

#52 Gary C on 11.27.20 at 5:20 pm

#30 Fuddle Duddler: You forgot to mention that with UBI,
Deficits don’t matter, as central banks print until they run out of trees, ops, which is why we’re going to a digital currency, “to save the trees”
Cow Economic Theory: The government takes your two cows and gives you some milk= UBI

#53 Barb on 11.27.20 at 5:23 pm

“To be fair, we were never taught ‘how to budget’ in school.”
————————————–
An appropriate sign:
“Glad I learned about parallelograms in school. It’ll help so much during parallelogram season”.

#54 Northshore guy on 11.27.20 at 5:24 pm

The obvious way to get out of this mess is by taxing principal residence, the amount of money it will bring in will dwarf any other tax.
Also whoever implements it will be out of power for next 20 yrs, so not gonna happen

If they increase capital gains tax then they should also increase TFSA limit to make it fair. Not gonna happen either.

#55 SOMETHINGS UP! on 11.27.20 at 5:31 pm

AND HOW is this not a PONZI SCHEME??

#56 Camille on 11.27.20 at 5:31 pm

Thank you Garth for clarity. I’ve learned much about this govm’ts intentions today.

Its perhaps not unimportant to note that the govm’ts issue debt sold into the market, but I think the Fed buys it back from dealers. It goes on the Fed balance sheet. New money is created. Otherwise buyers would demand much higher rates. This gives suppressed rates (govm’ts with their debt, the economy, corps and the stock market can’t handle higher rates).

#57 Doug t on 11.27.20 at 5:33 pm

She’s scary in a Margaret Thatcher kinda way –

#58 Dolce Vita on 11.27.20 at 5:40 pm

#44 Flop…

Ya, ya, ya, Melbourne and its Valhalla Norse God Immortals, like BC and the (former) Atlantic Bubble.

Try that in Italia with 4% the land mass of Oz and 2.4X as many people.

And Italians don’t herd well esp. in knucklehead Lombardia and supporting cast members Piemonte, Emilia Romagna and Toscana. Rest of us in Italia towing the line.

It’s coming down now here as well and our Rt just hit 1 as of today, so relief in sight.

One thing you learn about Italia after being here for 6 years now, is she does not move fast for anybody, or anyone. You move at her pace or not at all.

PS:

AstraZeneca* (2B doses/year), some Pfizer and Moderna vaccine being manufactured in Italia as well along with other vaccines on Gov Canada’s procurement list (Italia Pharma largest now, just a bit ahead of Deutschland’s, in the EU).

So easy on Italia if I were you there Kanuckistan.

——————-

*Nothing wrong with it. Of course Brain Dead Cdn MSM and the US MSM** love Pfizer and Moderna at 7 to 10X the price of AstraZeneca, also, they love spending money on cryogenic/deep freezer transport and storage vs. a refrigerator for AstraZeneca.

Nothing wrong with AstraZeneca vaccine, just investigating 1/2 dose improvement on efficacy:

https://www.today.it/attualita/vaccino-astrazeneca-problemi.html
[use Incognito Window, Corriere della Sera can be dicks when they want to be on viewing certain articles]

**And, heaven forbid Cdn and US MSM would mention that Biontech (Pfizer) co-owner and vaccine developer thinks 90% efficacy unlikely, for sure 50%:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54949799

#59 East Coast Life Style on 11.27.20 at 5:43 pm

Taxes, debt and war.

Smokey tried to warn you people.

But you were more concerned with
moral superiority and grammar than the
message.

We’re all in this together.

#60 baloney Sandwitch on 11.27.20 at 5:44 pm

The real money maker would be a capital gains tax on principal residential real estate. Maybe set a $1 million cutoff. GTA & Van real estate would crater. Inheritance tax would be popular with the millennials as boomers move on.

#61 gogo on 11.27.20 at 5:45 pm

We proved that the USA can do fine without a president, Toronto without a mayor and Canada without a finance minister.

#62 another albertan on 11.27.20 at 5:46 pm

#42 Piano Man & #45 zoey
Thank you for your recent posts. Climate change & plant-based diet: Simple concepts supported by sound science that, if ignored, will have profound, complex, negative ramifications for our descendants.

#63 Tarot Card on 11.27.20 at 5:49 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth,
To 604 Sam day trading,
There are three little rules to apply to day trading in your RRSP and TFSA,
The reason I looked it up was I was buying and selling during the crisis and my broker said oh by the way don’t do more than 15 trades a year in your TFSA as CRA may look at the account.
I did not believe him, so I looked up and found three little rules to bite your. ….Butt.
CRA frowns on speculators avoiding taxes inside registered shelters.
There are several court cases on CRA enforcing the rules so be informed.
Garth is right do not do allot of trades and if the tax man or person comes a knocking it might just be be labeled as income.

#64 East Coast Life Style on 11.27.20 at 5:52 pm

The root of the issue is having a debt based system
in the first place.

#65 Brian Ripley on 11.27.20 at 5:53 pm

​The Automated Payment Transaction Tax (APT)
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/apt

The foundations of the APT tax proposal—a small, uniform tax on all economic transactions—involve simplification, base broadening, reductions in marginal tax rates, the elimination of tax and information returns and the automatic collection of tax revenues at the payment source. The APT approach would extend the tax base from income, consumption and wealth to ALL transactions. (Wikipedia)

Read the 41 page PDF study by the authors you will find that the model would reduce the U.S. tax rate on all transactions to less than 1% on each side of all financial transactions and that the tax collected would be revenue neutral based on U.S. economic data of the late 1990s, early naughts.

Adopting this model would free us from the carrot and stick approach to taxation and we could stop making bets and start making productive investments.

#66 jess on 11.27.20 at 5:54 pm

2020-11-25
MEDIA RELEASE: Time to tax extreme wealth as Canada’s billionaires grow $53B richer in pandemic

Canada’s top billionaires grew their wealth by more than $50 billion between April and October of this year, our report found
Read more…
2020-11-20
MEDIA RELEASE: Over C$560 billion in revenues lost to tax havens each year, according to global study

OTTAWA – Countries around the world are losing over C$560 billion in revenues annually to international corporate tax dodging and private tax evasion

https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/2020/11/23/leons-received-almost-30-million-in-government-handouts-now-its-posting-record-profits-and-boosting-the-amount-it-pays-to-shareholders.html

AX HAVENS
Global tax system ‘programmed to fail,’ says new report on revenue losses

The Tax Justice Network provides country-by-country estimates of losses due to tax abuse and tax evasion by wealthy corporations and individuals.
By Will Fitzgibbon
Image: Photo by Jason Leung on Unsplash
November 20, 2020
================

Lloyds Banking Group has frozen about 8,000 bank accounts registered offshore after asking the customers for three years to prove their identities. … Customers who have failed to respond to Lloyds’ attempts to contact them could find their accounts frozen, the group said.Jun 24, 2019
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-24/lloyds-bank-tightens-money-laundering-controls-in-jersey

#67 Sydneysider on 11.27.20 at 5:59 pm

As pointed about by the Wall Street Journal some months ago, the best way to increase tax revenue from capital gains is to lower the inclusion rate.

If the govt announced announced a 2-year period at 35% say, I’m sure many would rush to cash out. Especially at this point in time, when many are sitting on large gains from the last few months.

#68 Flop... on 11.27.20 at 6:05 pm

Forget millionaires, billionaires are where it’s at when a government has this insatiable an appetite to spend.

We need to sort out the spending problem before we look for new revenue sources.

The problem with this the last time I checked into it earlier this year, was that Canada only had 44 billionaires at the time.

They are probably in concentrated areas, but even so that’s less than 3.5 billionaires for each province and territory.

Also they don’t last forever, I worked for one, he died…

M46BC

#69 Bill on 11.27.20 at 6:17 pm

The rich have the resources to emancipate from overtaxed jurisdictions some countries in Europe tried this and failed (France).
#39 Keith well done.
Govs have little interest in shrinking, only expanding and reaching for more power.
Trudeau is mindbogglingly ignorant and has zero restraint. Reward failure and punish the successful. Great recipe for a revolution?

#70 Arcticfox on 11.27.20 at 6:20 pm

All this printing by Ottawa but yet $C/US keeps heading north! This could embolden!

#71 Arcticfox on 11.27.20 at 6:22 pm

$Cad/Us

#72 CJohnC on 11.27.20 at 6:27 pm

Of course the real best answer is to forget the income tax act, forget the capital gains inclusion rate or new taxes on residential real estate capital gains.
The real answer is to replace it all with a simple financial transaction tax that applies to 100% of all financial transactions. Collected right at the processor of the financial transactions. No escapes

This has been outlined by Brian Ridley on this blog a number of times. Unfortunately I do not have the link explains it that he usually supplies.

(If you are around today, Mr Ridley, possibly you could post the link. )

And that could stand in for T2’s Great Reset instead of all the other nonsense he has planned

#73 Gramps on 11.27.20 at 6:37 pm

My daughter just sold her house last month.
Lived in it for 4 years, rented it for the next 6 years.
Made roughly $100,000. How is the capital gain calculated?

#74 Yukon Elvis on 11.27.20 at 6:51 pm

#69 Bill on 11.27.20 at 6:17 pm

Trudeau is mindbogglingly ignorant and has zero restraint. Reward failure and punish the successful. Great recipe for a revolution?
………………………….

Not a chance…67% of us vote left for drugs , money, and free stuff. The lefties will get re-elected until we blow up. No revolution here.

#75 Old Ron the Realtor on 11.27.20 at 6:51 pm

I do not know one Real Estate spec (investor) who paid a dime of tax on non owner occupied residential housing.

Maybe it’s time to simply take the gross difference on the purchase and sale price, forget the bogus and highly inflated expenses, and tax it as income in the year of the sale.

Billions are slipping through un taxed.

#76 Penny Henny on 11.27.20 at 6:59 pm

#129 bdwy sktrn on 11.27.20 at 2:23 pm
—————–
got an older katana750 (a slightly tamed gixxer?) after my xr650l got swiped.

///////////

My buddy had an 81 or 82 Katana. BEST looking bike EVER!!!

If you don’t know it google it.

Second place, 84 Honda Nighthawk 750 Sport

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.27.20 at 7:01 pm

Hmmmm.
“Someone” ( CIA or Shin Bet?) assassinated the top Iranian nuclear bomb scientist today.

https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-nuclear-scientist/killing-of-suspected-iranian-nuclear-mastermind-risks-confrontation-as-trump-exits-idUSKBN2871OE

One wonders if Trump is trying to stay in office by starting another low level war or just kicking the hornets nest on the way out the door……

#78 IHCTD9 on 11.27.20 at 7:02 pm

#14 bdwy sktrn on 11.27.20 at 2:58 pm
harvester of many nations…

GMC Sierra AT4 6.2L double cab 4×4 – $950.00/mo.”

DozerDude i thought you liked to fix stuff/machines/cars etc.

just paid $2900 (one lifetime payment) for a beauty gmc yukon loaded and nice leather (a must for big dogs).
the seat heaters are so fast and so powerful its hard to believe. dont see how one could be more comfortable in any vehicle new or not. you damn near need an eng. degree to work out all of the seat adjustment controls.
no fancy computer screens – a phone mount is fine w me.

i did get to play with wrenches a bit for new brakes and rotors (gmc parts=great prices and options)a couple fuses but that was it.
plus lower insurance for a nonfinanced vehicle

84 nearly 1k payments for a shiny new one? i’ll keep 81 of them thanks.
——

I do like fixing stuff, my Sierra 2500HD turned 17 this year :). I do like that damn AT4 though, young guy at work bought a brand spanking new one last year for 70k. What a sweet truck! Financed for 7 years at 3.99% (not so sweet).

I just figured Selena would be all “engineered-out” at the end of the day, and not in the mood to wrench on a beater for another 2-3 hours, so I included a damn fine truck into the measly 55k living costs she would enjoy out here in the sticks.

#79 Nonplused on 11.27.20 at 7:04 pm

“Well, whatever happens, something will happen.”

Profound.

“In her world, there would be no powerful wealthy folks. Just powerful political ones. And she plans on succeeding Trudeau.”

That is the main difference between a socialist dictatorship and a capitalist democracy. There are still people with country palaces, private jets and access to yachts, but they hold public office rather than run corporations or performing open-heart surgeries.

Eliminating or “punishing” the rich always seems like a moral imperative to socialists. But everywhere it has been tried it has resulted in economic collapse. It turns out the “rich” are a necessary evil. Their capital deployment or special skill sets lift us all up out of the mud even if they lift themselves higher than others.

Heart surgeons really are different and harder to come by than plumbers. “Learn to code” is about the stupidest phrase there is because most people cannot do it with any level of proficiency, so people who can make more money than people who can’t. The Pareto distribution can’t be avoided. Otherwise all the aspiring musicians out there would have recording contracts and sold out stadiums. All the little Tim-Bits hockey players would go on to win a Stanley cup. But it just doesn’t work that way. Not in nature, and not in humans either.

The Pareto principle states that for many outcomes roughly 80% of consequences come from 20% of the causes (the “vital few”). Other names for this principle are the 80/20 rule, the law of the vital few, or the principle of factor sparsity. It can also be applied recursively in many cases indicating that within the 20%, there is another 80/20 split, and so on. We already see it more or less played out in income distribution and tax reimbursements but it can just as easily be applied to hockey players. Or people will often apply it to work tasks (20% of the effort produces 80% of the results). In the animal kingdom, 20% of the males are responsible for 80% of the offspring (that number is not exact and species dependant but you get the idea).

The only way in economics to achieve socialism is to financially destroy the top 20% in favor of the bottom 80%. But then you end up with something like 20% less economic activity and you still find out that another 80/20 distribution exists in that new reality, which must be further destroyed, and so on. Eventually the economy collapses as productivity is driven down to the lowest common denominator. Why study and work hard if you don’t get paid for it? A heart surgeon must invest years of hard work with little pay before they start to see some payback so darn right they are going to expect to be able to afford a golf membership at some point.

The ultra-rich like Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett, etc. are examples of the Pareto principle or 80/20 applied recursively until there are no more splits to be made. So is Sidney Crosby. So is, unbelievably, Adele.

Bill Gates did not found Microsoft on his own, and I doubt there is a single line of code he or his cofounders wrote still to be found in any Microsoft product, but let’s face it he and his cofounders changed the world. So yes, they are all rich. Live with it. Or “learn to code”.

#80 willworkforpickles on 11.27.20 at 7:05 pm

Inflation will rise quickly in 2021 with much more government spending. Much restrained growth from structural unemployment compounding it is expected. Higher taxes will contribute as well to the stagflation that’s coming. Conditions for stagflation to occur as seen in the 1970’s were thought to be in the past and left in the past.
The pandemic and the extreme measures (mostly unnecessary) used to battle it have resurrected those conditions.
The Fed’s Paul Volcker ended the stagflation of the 70’s by raising the rate to 20% in 1980. It took a recession, the 1980-1982 recession to finally end the fallout of stagflation.
The fallout of 2020 extremes lays just ahead in 2021 and beyond.
Imagine having to renew your $million/s dollar mortgages at 20 percent or even 10 percent 5 years from now.
Did i mention how stagflation has a tendency to cut home equities in half or even more….hmmm, picture a vastly overpriced $2million dollar home purchased in 2020 with a mortgage rate of 1.5% locked in for 5 years.
Easy to do…as many have done in this unprecedented year.
Now picture the equity of that home ravaged from stagflation over those next 5 years and your property purchased for $2 million reduced in value to under $1million about renewal time at a vastly higher interest rate of 10 percent or beyond.
——————————————————————————————
NO!…it can’t happen…that just can’t happen. it just can’t, no, not to me it can… it’s different this time. Been saying that for ten years or longer now. We love that line. It’s our fave saying of all time…All Time.
————————————————————————————-

Now forget all that … whatever that was…
…that’s over.

#81 Nonplused on 11.27.20 at 7:13 pm

#72 CJohnC on 11.27.20 at 6:27 pm
Of course the real best answer is to forget the income tax act, forget the capital gains inclusion rate or new taxes on residential real estate capital gains.
The real answer is to replace it all with a simple financial transaction tax that applies to 100% of all financial transactions. Collected right at the processor of the financial transactions. No escapes

———————————-

There is no means of fine tuning the tax system that can create more money. The amount of money in the system at any given time is fixed. The central bank can create more money when deemed necessary but this does not create economic activity without inflation so they have to be careful how they do it.

Even a child understands that if you put 10 marbles in a can you can’t get 11 out no matter how much you shake it up. There is no 11th marble.

#82 MF on 11.27.20 at 7:14 pm

Time to get rid of the capital gains exemption on residential real estate.

MF

#83 Phylis on 11.27.20 at 7:21 pm

Cap and trade seems to be the flavour of the day. How about cap and tax on principle residents. A little tax free to get/keep you hooked, then pay with your soul beyond a lifetime limit. Remember the prior lifetime cap on caps anyone?

#84 IHCTD9 on 11.27.20 at 7:22 pm

There are no tax measures sufficient to deal with T2’s spending that won’t get him and his band of merry peoplekind turfed from power.

GST hikes are easily sidestepped. Some will be proactive about it (ask me for details), others will do it because they have to. CGT hikes will amount to diddly. A CGT on PR’s is coming, but that will be a revenue stream that shrinks every year, all the while affecting many other other revenue streams for all three levels of government negatively on top.

JT has basically %$#@*& the entire country for a generation, but it won’t be him that gets mud on his face. The fallout will hit fever pitch years from now when T2 is working at the UN.

We’ve got 19 million workers in Canada, and by the time Trudeau is done, the combined provincial and federal debt will probably be 2 Trillion, that’s over a hundred grand for every worker in Canada – and that’s assuming all of them pay full taxes which is far from the case.

#85 Freddie on 11.27.20 at 7:26 pm

What about a tax on the Bank of Canada. The more it prints, creates new money, the higher the interest rate it must pay. No free lunch anymore.

Every 10 billion increase in new money created 1% point increase, 100 billion means 10% annual interest rate, 1 trillion means 100% annual interest rate. All this tax money goes to Canadian taxpayers only. If you do not pay income tax you get nothing.

#86 Nonplused on 11.27.20 at 7:27 pm

#5 Flop… on 11.27.20 at 2:30 pm

“On the small chance that I win, I said I would defer to someone that really wants to do it.

That person is Nonplused, on the proviso he doesn’t try to scare the poop out of the kids like Dolce did…”

——————————-

I intentionally did not give a prediction for 3 reasons:

1) Out of respect for Garth. He wouldn’t want that.

2) Predicting a Trudeau deficit in these times is like trying to predict the effect of cow farts on the environment 20 years from now with no historical data.

and c) Anybody who wants to read my comments already knows where to find them. It’s about 4 or 5 people I figure. That may be high. Let’s say 4 people who want to read them, a whole bunch of people who scroll past, and 4 people who definitely don’t want to read them but do so anyway so they can call me an idiot or a liar.

#87 Calgary Rip Off on 11.27.20 at 7:31 pm

#42 Piano Man:

Look at some molecular stats on Covid 19. It doesnt look like any of the other bat covids except the pangolin, except Covid 19 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TB9WLxs0cA

If wet markets were to blame, why have there not been more infections sooner?

Im thinking Fauci’s Wuhan lab got pissed when Trump cut their pay and released said virus to create vaccine work. That is a stretch, however everything seems weird. The constant focus on the virus in the media. The lack of appropriate response. The hysteria. Its all whacked.

#88 I'd like to offer ... on 11.27.20 at 7:33 pm

my sincere condolences to whomever wins Garth’s prize in advance …

#89 MF on 11.27.20 at 7:35 pm

#74 Yukon Elvis on 11.27.20 at 6:51 pm

“Not a chance…67% of us vote left for drugs , money, and free stuff. The lefties will get re-elected until we blow up. No revolution here.”

-Meh, our main popular political parties (Liberals and Conseravatives) are mostly centrist. They shift slightly leftward or rightward here and there but compared to real leftist or right wing parties around the world they don’t compare. We just like to complain

MF

#90 IHCTD9 on 11.27.20 at 7:39 pm

#74 Yukon Elvis on 11.27.20 at 6:51 pm

Not a chance…67% of us vote left for drugs , money, and free stuff. The lefties will get re-elected until we blow up. No revolution here.
— ——-

Yep, that’s it in a nutshell. Glad I am past the middle mark enroute to retirement. Might be doing that via USD if we keep electing nimrods like Trudeau.

It’s time to face the facts, Canadians have become some of the most bird brained people on earth. Self preservation time. I’ve been at it for a while already. The bill will fall to the millennials, immigrants, and the “rich” of all demographics.

#91 willworkforpickles on 11.27.20 at 7:41 pm

If by chance no one wins the guest column spot being offered…I for one, among others here, would also like to see Nonplussed get the blog access for the day.
Anybody else?

#92 Nonplused on 11.27.20 at 7:42 pm

#15 Daniel on 11.27.20 at 2:59 pm
“What about taxing rich home owners instead?”

Do you own a house? I get taxed every year for the privilege of owning it. And it is not chump-change. I’m pretty sure everyone else who owns property does too.

And this is another reason capital gains taxes on primary residences will never fly in Canada. It would be just another tax on a tax on a tax. And we don’t have mortgage interest deductions here.

#93 DON on 11.27.20 at 7:43 pm

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.27.20 at 7:01 pm
Hmmmm.
“Someone” ( CIA or Shin Bet?) assassinated the top Iranian nuclear bomb scientist today.

https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-nuclear-scientist/killing-of-suspected-iranian-nuclear-mastermind-risks-confrontation-as-trump-exits-idUSKBN2871OE

One wonders if Trump is trying to stay in office by starting another low level war or just kicking the hornets nest on the way out the

**********

I had the same thought…that recent secret meeting between Irsael and Saudi Arabia.

#94 Drill Baby Drill on 11.27.20 at 7:43 pm

Trudeau just gave Afghanistan today $267 MM of our hard earned borrowed dollars. This urine poor excuse of a PM has to go.

#95 IHCTD9 on 11.27.20 at 7:45 pm

#72 CJohnC on 11.27.20 at 6:27 pm
Of course the real best answer is to forget the income tax act, forget the capital gains inclusion rate or new taxes on residential real estate capital gains.
The real answer is to replace it all with a simple financial transaction tax that applies to 100% of all financial transactions. Collected right at the processor of the financial transactions. No escapes

This has been outlined by Brian Ridley on this blog a number of times. Unfortunately I do not have the link explains it that he usually supplies.

(If you are around today, Mr Ridley, possibly you could post the link. )

And that could stand in for T2’s Great Reset instead of all the other nonsense he has planned
—-

Not going to work until cash money goes away. If all taxation was based on financial transactions, why wouldn’t folks just go cash, suffer the losses of inflation, and be way ahead of the game?

#96 espressobob on 11.27.20 at 7:58 pm

Investing in a TFSA is a no brainer.

#97 Nonplused on 11.27.20 at 7:59 pm

#42 Piano_Man87 on 11.27.20 at 4:35 pm

“Just another reason to eat a plant based diet. If eating steak is worth what’s happening to society right now, and will be worth it again and again, by all means enjoy your steak. Just realize that this is the cost of it.”

———————————-

So you are saying cows caused covid? I thought it was wild bats? Anyway round here the cows spend all but the last bit of their lives wandering around fields. The fields aren’t good for anything else. And if you get rid of the cows you just get deer and elk.

#98 Drinking on 11.27.20 at 8:05 pm

This goes to show you on how ridiculous politics have become.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/pmo-sends-readout-of-trudeau-scolding-otoole-over-covid-misinformation-in-phone-call-but-the-call-hadnt-happened

#99 TriniGirl on 11.27.20 at 8:08 pm

Why won’t they tax capital gains on principle residences? They’ve got the data from the municipalities and provinces via the LLT?

Canada the only jurisdiction in the Western to my knowledge that does not tax capital grains accreted on property. And not surprisingly, the market has been spiraling out of control.

They should go back and tax ALL RE deals dating back to the year 2002.

#100 Dave Stockbrin on 11.27.20 at 8:09 pm

What about the fact that rent is not taxed like other goods, services. It is tax free and is actually used in low income tax credits, tax reductions like here in Ontario.

A $2,000 a month residential rental should pay currently $260 a month HST/GST. If we see a 15% HST/GST, it is $300 a month for a $2,000 monthly rental.

They should also cancel, get rid the hundreds, thousands of dollars tax credits for renters claiming their tax credits, tax reductions in Ontario, other provinces, Canada.

Renters that hate their landlords need to contribute too to Canada’s social safety net which really gets a hole bigger and bigger we go more socialist, left, liberal, NDP, Green party etc.

#101 Nonplused on 11.27.20 at 8:13 pm

#66 jess on 11.27.20 at 5:54 pm
2020-11-25
MEDIA RELEASE: Time to tax extreme wealth as Canada’s billionaires grow $53B richer in pandemic

———————————–

This is more proof that most people do not read my comments.

Wealth is not money. It is a mark to market fantasy until sold, and then it becomes someone else’s mark to market fantasy. The polite term is “notional”, but that in essence means “if I could sell at the last settle I would have this much money”. Nope, not until you sell.

I worked in risk management for years. Yes, M2M is calculated every day and reported as expected profit/loss (P&L). But there is another number reported everyday called “Value at Risk” (VAR) or sometimes “Cashflow at Risk” (the difference is based on the holding period). VAR looks at (based on a bunch of statistical bullcrap) what the position might do in a worst case scenario. Things that looked like millions in profits can turn into millions in losses in short order and it is the same position on the books.

Wealth is not money. Neither is M2M. VAR is always out there. And sooner or later it will get you so make sure you have enough money in the bank to post margin.

#102 Kato on 11.27.20 at 8:15 pm

#42 Piano_Man87 on 11.27.20 at 4:35 pm
So we stuff animals in cages, often with many more other animals, as small as possible to reduce costs, and grow them as fast as possible, to be slaughtered for human consumption.
……………………..
There will be more pandemics, and they will be caused by the same problems. There is no reason why this won’t happen again.

Just another reason to eat a plant based diet. If eating steak is worth what’s happening to society right now, and will be worth it again and again, by all means enjoy your steak. Just realize that this is the cost of it.

_________________________

I haven’t had a steak in a few years and I mostly eat plant-based. Pandemic happened anyway. If my goal was preventing a global pandemic, I may as well have eaten steaks every day for all the difference it made.

I do understand your point, and even agree with the sentiment, but what I do doesn’t amount to a hill of beans, even if that’s what I mainly eat.

#103 Flop... on 11.27.20 at 8:16 pm

#122 BillyBob on 11.26.20 at 4:31 am
#43 Freedom First on 11.25.20 at 5:39 pm
#4 Flop

Flop, I still read all of your posts. Though I may not always agree with everything you write, I really do enjoy, respect, and understand where you are coming from and the way you handle yourself. You are a class act. Sincerely.

Freedom First

================================

Couldn’t say it any better than that FF.

A firm second on what he said, Flop.

//////////////////////////////

Been meaning to thank you gentleman for your kind words the other day.

I guess the thing that matters the most, is that when I first came on the blog I didn’t always get on with you guys, and I regret some of the comments I made to you both.

Lets just say, I realize I have a distinct sense of humour.

Not asking everyone to laugh at every joke or agree with every stance I take.

I envision being here for the duration of this blog’s life, because it is information served up in such a way that keeps a blue collar bum like myself interested, comment section included.

Also glad I didn’t have to die before someone wrote something nice about me on here.

Overall, I think it took a while for some people on the blog to realize I am a few Lego pieces short of a complete castle…

M46BC

#104 Nonplused on 11.27.20 at 8:22 pm

#78 IHCTD9 on 11.27.20 at 7:02 pm

“I do like fixing stuff, my Sierra 2500HD turned 17 this year :). I do like that damn AT4 though, young guy at work bought a brand spanking new one last year for 70k. What a sweet truck! Financed for 7 years at 3.99% (not so sweet).

I just figured Selena would be all “engineered-out” at the end of the day, and not in the mood to wrench on a beater for another 2-3 hours, so I included a damn fine truck into the measly 55k living costs she would enjoy out here in the sticks.”

———————————

If people stopped buying new cars eventually we would run out of old ones. But yes new ones are just too darn expensive. If you have a good old car best to run it until the wheels fall off.

With an average wage of $50,000 a year by old time standards a new truck should cost $25,000. Good luck with that.

#105 WUL on 11.27.20 at 8:23 pm

Get rid of capital gains exemption on principal residences? Lots of clamour for this.

Tax this. Tax that.

Tax anything as long as it is my ox that is not the one being gored. That’s what I hear.

Tax the words used in lengthy comments here in steerage. Threshold at 50 words, then $20 per.

I’m going online to send an instalment of $420 right now to CRA for this one.

#106 Chris Scotts on 11.27.20 at 8:31 pm

I like the person’s idea about renters paying new taxes. There are alot of renters in Canada too. Since homeowners pay most of the taxes, property taxes, land transfer taxes, GST/HST on everything house related from repairs to maintenance, lawyer fees, closing costs, real estate commissions etc., income taxes on rental income, capital gains on properties that are rentals, etc. etc.

We should have a new tax for renters that are not homeowners, a moving or transfer tax, it should be a minimum of your last month’s rent. Very simple, if you pay $1,500 a month or $2,500 a month every time you move or transfer your address, you should pay the renter’s transfer tax, moving tax and GST/HST on top of that. Just like they do with gasoline, taxes on taxes.

Another great tax for renters to pay is an annual a month 10% rental registration tax, so you pay $225 month tax for a $2,250 a month rental unit or rental.

Another great tax for renters is a rental parking tax, just pay 5% a month for your rent so $100 a month for a $2,000 monthly rental.

Wait, there is more, renters, if you live in Toronto, you are special, monthly each of another rental transfer, moving tax, rental registration tax, rental parking tax. Renters, you do want to contribute to Canada’s social programs and socialism. You can pay your fair share too.

#107 Nonplused on 11.27.20 at 8:33 pm

Hmm my comment explaining to Flop at #5 why I did not enter the contest does not seem to have appeared but didn’t get a delete. Maybe I forgot to hit “submit”.

At the risk of a duplicate submission the reasons are:

1) I don’t think Garth would be happy giving me the forum and anyway I don’t want to soil his blog (other than in the comments, which only the steerage reads).

2) Guessing a budget deficit in the Trudeau – Covid era is like guessing the impact of cow farts on the environment.

c) Anyone who cares already knows where to find me and call me an idiot or a liar.

#108 Nonplused on 11.27.20 at 8:36 pm

Oh damn now it is up at #86. I have to be less trigger happy and wait for the moderation magic.

#109 Mr Canada on 11.27.20 at 8:36 pm

We’re pooched…

#110 Tanya Simpson on 11.27.20 at 8:43 pm

One more tax about the guy on renters, since most renters get to use the legal aid system free to them at billions of dollars cost a year to Canadian taxpayers,landlords a $1,500 a year renter’s legal aid rental tax plus GST,HST which goes up by $100 a year+GST, HST.

It is all about getting services right. I hear it all the time with the liberals, NDP, Greens. Contribute renters.

#111 Gary Longworth on 11.27.20 at 8:55 pm

I think a tax that would make sense due to the current environment we are in today is a government worker’s tax, government retiree tax. Since most government jobs pay more, pay higher or benefits in general and their jobs are more secure, an annual maximum $10,000 government worker’s tax, retiree tax.

Anyone’s total government pay under $50,000 per year pays $5,000 annually, anyone over $50,000 pays $10,000 annually this tax. They are a higher, protected, special class worker, retiree in Canada so should contribute to the tough times we live in today.

#112 KLNR on 11.27.20 at 8:58 pm

@#76 Penny Henny on 11.27.20 at 6:59 pm
#129 bdwy sktrn on 11.27.20 at 2:23 pm
—————–
got an older katana750 (a slightly tamed gixxer?) after my xr650l got swiped.

///////////

My buddy had an 81 or 82 Katana. BEST looking bike EVER!!!

If you don’t know it google it.

Second place, 84 Honda Nighthawk 750 Sport
—————

I’d go with 2000 ducati 996/748 as best looking sport bike ever. followed closely by the BMW s1000rr

#113 45north on 11.27.20 at 9:17 pm

Nope. But higher taxes on the money people make from risking their capital means they may risk it less. That hurts expanding companies, new start-ups, financial markets, commercial real estate and ultimately pension funds, while it encourages investors to hang on to gains instead of selling assets and triggering tax. The move would also make it wise for people to focus on keeping assets inside RRSPs and especially TFSAs, where gains remain tax-free.

Managing risk is important but we’re adding structure to make us less able to manage it. As you say a higher capital gains inclusion rate will reduce the risks we as a society will take. One example is developing manufacturing facilities for vaccines. Okay now that its evident that we’re behind a good part of the world in getting the vaccine, it’s evident manufacturing facilities are important. Très importants. But a year ago who was saying we need them? Not Justin Trudeau. Not Chrystia Freeland. In the meantime, these two clowns congratulate themselves on their foresight.

#114 Flop... on 11.27.20 at 9:20 pm

Billybob, forgot to mention, you articulated the other day about the 737 max.

You might enjoy watching this.

ABC is doing a 2 hour special tonight.

Maybe someone will post in a YouTube in a few days.

Falling from the sky…

M46BC

https://abcnews.go.com/2020/video/falling-sky-2020-event-special-airs-friday-98c-74326861

#115 IVoteIndependent on 11.27.20 at 9:38 pm

#6 Former Navy Chief -would you buy one?

#116 BC Renovator on 11.27.20 at 10:11 pm

#100 Dave Stockbrin on 11.27.20 at 8:09 pm
What about the fact that rent is not taxed like other goods, services. It is tax free and is actually used in low income tax credits, tax reductions like here in Ontario.

A $2,000 a month residential rental should pay currently $260 a month HST/GST. If we see a 15% HST/GST, it is $300 a month for a $2,000 monthly rental.

They should also cancel, get rid the hundreds, thousands of dollars tax credits for renters claiming their tax credits, tax reductions in Ontario, other provinces, Canada.

Renters that hate their landlords need to contribute too to Canada’s social safety net which really gets a hole bigger and bigger we go more socialist, left, liberal, NDP, Green party etc.

_______________

LOl What!? Thats has to be the dumbest suggestion to date on the Blog. And that’s coming from a Renter/Landlord.
If what you suggest comes to fruition, then Homeowners should pay tax on their Mortgage payment? After all, we are All paying for a Roof over our heads with After Tax Income! Holy F

#117 willworkforpickles on 11.27.20 at 10:14 pm

107 Nonplused
“2) Guessing a budget deficit in the Trudeau – Covid era is like guessing the impact of cow farts on the environment.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………..

That works…but first you need to count the cows.

#118 SWL on 11.27.20 at 10:16 pm

#76 Penny Henny

81 or 82 Katana. BEST looking bike EVER!!!

————–

Well now I’ve heard it all

Never would I have guessed I would hear such high praise for an ol can-of-tuna. Maybe I’m too young to really appreciate the 1982 version. I always thought they were just a starter bike for people who didn’t really know how to ride or what they were buying

Hey Justin, how about we tax trust funds retroactively 48 years

#119 Adamson BBQ on 11.27.20 at 10:31 pm

Money talks. Adamson BBQ legal defense donations up to $210k in under 3 days.

https://gf.me/u/y98fi8

#120 Dr V on 11.27.20 at 10:58 pm

19 Faron

“For the record, I love receiving dividends but hate them in principle. Whenever a bank dings me a fee I just see it as supporting a share holder. Direct transfer of wealth, most likely upward.”

Well you could say that about a lot of businesses. How do you feel about car dealers?

Lots of choices here for you. Why not join a CU where
you get the dividend and can easily attend AGMs and maybe even know a board member? Or choose a company which has a lower percentage of earnings paid out as a dividend? Or take a larger dividend and donate it to a worthy cause of your own choosing?

#121 IHCTD9 on 11.27.20 at 11:00 pm

#104 Nonplused on 11.27.20 at 8:22 pm

If people stopped buying new cars eventually we would run out of old ones. But yes new ones are just too darn expensive. If you have a good old car best to run it until the wheels fall off.

With an average wage of $50,000 a year by old time standards a new truck should cost $25,000. Good luck with that.
— –

Every day, I drive by at least 3-4 trucks that are 90-100k machines. These things are in demand like nothing I’ve ever seen before. I hear used Canadian trucks are being bought up and shipped down to the USA. Right now, a 1-2 year old used truck is not even worth buying because the price is so high, when you take into consideration the financing costs (not as good as the dealer offers), it pretty much costs the same as new.

The old trucks were a lot cheaper for sure, but look at the difference with the new ones. The top end RAMs have an interior that rivals an S class MB, takes 5 passengers in comfort, hauls 10x as much, tows 20x as much, air ride suspension, whisper quiet, 400+ hp, and 20 mpg on the highway. Aluminum bodies that never rust, 500 hp twin turbo v6’s, 3Litre diesels that get 30+ mpg, single cab, double cab, quad cab, super cab, short box, long box, you name it. Today’s trucks do it all any way you want it done, and that’s why there are almost zero cars made by US manufacturers any more – no one wants ‘em.

But oh yes – the cost. I guess that’s why GMAC offers 0-2.5% over 84 months – they have to.

I think 1k/mo. is the limit, if they can’t wiggle the financing to stay under a grand per month, they might actually have to start thinking about the price.

#122 millmech on 11.27.20 at 11:29 pm

#30
You need to understand Return Of Capital, all that money that you believe will disqualify us for UBI will not. Investing 20k/yr for 30 years in a non registered account will give me a nest egg of 600k that will be returned to me with no tax consequence. The return on that money will be taxed but only if I draw it down, why do that when I can get 100k tax free for my first six years plus max UBI of 2k+/mth. After 6yrs when capital is all used up every other year take out big draw downs of investment returns, so one year no UBI. Next year super poor, qualify for max govt benefits and get two years of subsidized meds to take me through high income years.

#123 Handsome Ned on 11.27.20 at 11:33 pm

#42 Piano_man87

I agree with you when it comes to chickens and pork, but not beef. Here out west cattle spend their lives frolicing in the fields and pastures. The most sustainable food of all is wild game. The government should be encouraging hunting and firearm ownership.No shortage of deer, moose and gamebirds. A good start would be gun clubs in schools like we used to have to teach safe handling. There were no school shootings back then, when every family owned a firearm or two.

#124 TurnerNation on 11.27.20 at 11:44 pm

Would it be fair to say Kanada is on a collision course?
I know the Reset was debunked but…the very first week of the shut down, when the New System was launched I compared notes with an established businessman friend, older than I . We had the same inkling that at once our money had become funny money. That everything we’d worked for was naught. He felt it. The impact across his business and clients. We’re one year into this almost the the Old System is further torn down. That the New System was one of a banking reset.

No more small business in the Communist RED zones. No cultural events, no gatherings, no holidays, no travel; oppressive law enforcement. But those conspiracy theorists how DARE they spew their garbage. This is all normal what’s happening. Totally normal.

Each day we move closer and closer, it is clear…to what?

Of course it begins with the children in this brutal New System. They must not be allowed In less than a year, this? In one more years time, what? This is not letting up. To the contrary.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-students-at-certain-schools-in-hot-spots-to-receive-asymptomatic-covid-19-tests-1.5205300

#125 David Davidoff on 11.28.20 at 12:06 am

Garth, you can be sure that there are zero “institutional buyers” for Canadian (Trudeau) Debt, zero minus zero.

BOC pushes a button in a Caribbean bank, Trudeau withdraws, shell game and awful lie to tell. There hasn’t been a single transaction on record for at least three years.

There is zero demand for $C. They’re cooking the books. Y+ou have all the smart people in speed dial. You can be looking at the truth way faster than it took Vivienne Krause to pull all the tax records on the American donations into Trudeaus ‘ Hate Harper Campaign.’

FOI this.

#126 joblo on 11.28.20 at 12:19 am

https://nypost.com/2020/11/25/justin-trudeau-pranked-by-russians-posing-as-greta-thunberg/

Justin Trudeau dreams of a world without soldiers.

Whatta a leader.

#127 NoName on 11.28.20 at 12:23 am

flop

here are germans talking same year ago

https://mirror.us.oneandone.net/projects/media.ccc.de/congress/2019/h264-hd/36c3-10961-eng-deu-fra-Boeing_737MAX_Automated_Crashes_hd.mp4

#128 Al on 11.28.20 at 12:29 am

Maybe she’ll address the off shoring manoeuvres in a way bahama/chateau Bill never would. That’ll free up a decent chunk long term. It is difficult to pull of without intl cooperation however. One can always hope.

#129 dgb on 11.28.20 at 12:35 am

just a quick comment on the ‘renters to pay additional taxes’ people….I rent…my LL charges me every cent that he must pay in property tax and fees with tax…so I pay those tax already!!..I rent because I cannot afford to buy…How much more do you think that a renter can pay??? you honestly have no idea what you are speaking about…most of this country cannot afford more taxes…CUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING RE: WORKERS AND GIVE AWAYS….they are spending us into oblivion and you want to give them more …they will only spend more and to hell with the deficits..it is about buying votes to keep them there until they are financially set for life !! what a sad country we are becoming ….

#130 Jane24 on 11.28.20 at 12:44 am

That is quite amazing Garth that only 160,000 out of a population of 37 million make more than $250,000 a year. If you take out the RE agents, who is left? Very easy for these people to move away from Canada and they should go somewhere that appreciates and encourages them. No wonder my Canadian relatives never seem to have any money!

#131 Longterm on 11.28.20 at 12:58 am

#42 Piano_Man87 on 11.27.20 at 4:35 pm

Yep, that’s a big part of it.

The other part is the ecosystem destruction, which reduces habitat for millions of non-human species while bringing many species, and the viruses they naturally carry, into every closer and more frequent contact with humans either directly or via an intermediary animal that humans consume [pigs, chickens, and wild game].

It’s the perfect cocktail: ever more humans in dense cities, fewer wild areas, more exposure to ‘exotic’ animals and the viruses they carry, bigger and more intense concentrated animal factories and wild meat markets that facilitate mutation and the jump to humans, and then a high speed globalized transport system to wing them around the world.

We’ve made this mess and SARS-CoV-2 is likely just the beginning as the human population swells and we mow down rainforests for palm oil plantations and heat up the planet causing all manner of potential non-linear ecosystem effects.

And yet people want to get ‘back to normal’.

Woe is us.

#132 BCWally on 11.28.20 at 12:58 am

I got to believe house sales won’t be exempt from capital gains more so than investing. This blog has said it a few times that this is where the money is as most Canadians don’t invest.
WHY? Because you can’t move the house to the British Virgin Islands to sell it there. Might be time for a new Raymond James office there. I hear its beautiful.

#133 NSNG on 11.28.20 at 1:11 am

You really should allow people to submit guest columns. Then you can move up to senior editor on those days. It will save you having to churn out columns every day.

I think great storytelling would be a welcome relief too. Let the blog’s budding creative writers have some space.

#134 Dog Breath on 11.28.20 at 1:28 am

“…Mr. Socks will go postal on ‘the wealthy’ now that the virus has emboldened him to give silly speeches about a ‘great reset’ and a re-engineering of society.”
————————————————————–
So little Justin is going to reset and re-engineer society is he. Most Canadians wouldn’t trust this little weasel to reset an alarm clock!

#135 Gulf Breeze on 11.28.20 at 1:46 am

Am very happy to forfeit all of my OAS, CPP. I don’t need it. We are in an economic crisis. The fact that it doesn’t look or feel like one is due to the deflation fighting aspects of stimulus.

This was supposed to be the long term effect of technology and automation…and it is. The virus is just kick starting it.

If my income goes away somehow, ubi will be there for me, plus I have saved plenty of cash. I will get by and so will many of you whiners.

This ain’t your daddy’s economy. Grow up. Realize that everybody is going to have to make sacrifices. Focus on those who are just starting out in life. They’re making the greatest sacrifices of all.

Okay Boomer? LOL. I am a boomer!

#136 protea on 11.28.20 at 2:17 am

Going after the billionaires I wish the government good luck for example Lawrence Stroll who actually does not have a high a profile in Canada but is better known in Montreal where Canada has the F.1 . race each year and where he was born and his dad started the clothing business etc. Also owns the Ferrari dealership in Montreal and a race track in the Laurentians.. He is ranked in the top 40 wealthest Canadians almost 3 billion dollars.

As he has the financial clout his son Lance Stroll has a ride as a driver in F1. The father Lawrence Does not reside in Canada definitely for tax reasons and I would do the same if I had the $$$$$. . Recently bought a share of Aston Martin ? How many others live outside Canada I imagine if the Govt goes after the richest folks many others would relocate I remember around 20 yrs ago when many Doctors moved to the USA.

Career
Stroll invested in bringing Pierre Cardin fashionwear and Ralph Lauren clothing to Canada. Along with Hong Kong investor Silas Chou, Stroll invested in clothing designer Tommy Hilfiger and Michael Kors, and the pair largely contributed to the multiple brands global prevalence today.[6][1] In the 2000s, Chou and Stroll invested in Asprey & Garrard.[1]

#137 fishman on 11.28.20 at 4:50 am

Get with it peoplekind & learn “lil potato” speak. Its breathless, dramatic, anagram speak. As in: Uh Canada will have uh a great uh Reset. Which means we’ll plant billions of Trees. Trees for carbon offsets & free paper money.

#138 BillyBob on 11.28.20 at 5:00 am

#91 willworkforpickles on 11.27.20 at 7:41 pm
If by chance no one wins the guest column spot being offered…I for one, among others here, would also like to see Nonplussed get the blog access for the day.
Anybody else?

=================================

Absolutely. Thought the same when I saw Flop suggest it. Although now I see he isn’t interested, which is of course the strongest indicator he should do it.

C’mon Nonplused, step up, yer blog dogs need you.

As far as taxes: lots of room to grow the GST rate. VAT in the EU is usually 20+%. If Canadians want European-style socialism how do they expect to not pay the same taxes? That loving embrace of the gubmint doesn’t come cheap, y’know.

But the cap gains on real estate is the blindingly obvious candidate. Where’s that “a dollar is a dollar” weirdo when we need him?

Will check out the TV doc Flop, thanks.

#139 Diamond Dog on 11.28.20 at 7:10 am

(Sheesh, we just want our shot…) – Garth

Yeah…. been thinking about that.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/healthy-living/2018-2019-influenza-flu-vaccine-coverage-survey-results.html

The percentage of Canadians taking voluntary flu shots is 42% in 2018-2019, an increase of 38 and 36% the previous 2 years. “Among high-risk groups, coverage for seniors 65 years of age and older (70%) and adults aged 18-64 years with a chronic medical condition (CMC) (43%) remained below the national coverage goals of 80%. Four in ten respondents believed that the flu vaccine does not protect them against the flu (41%) and about the same proportion believed they might get the flu from the vaccine (43%).”

This 42% vaccination rate doesn’t include the 0 to 17 year age group, roughly some 20% of the Canadian population. Factor this in, and the total population participation rate is 33.5%. Factor in the efficacy of the vaccine (say 80%) and herd immunity drops to 27%.

Now… having said all that, Covid19 is more serious than the flu and participation rates should be higher in Canada but by much? Maybe 42% participation of all ages if messaging doesn’t change (33.6% @ 80% efficacy). In the states, considering the drop off in vaccine participation with no health care coverage and how heavily politicized Covid19 became, we may only see 33 to 35% vaccine rates across all age groups, (35 x 80% efficacy = 28% herd immunity).

Vaccine participation rates could go higher if the private sector stepped in. Say, dentists don’t do teeth unless those having done dental work can prove they’ve had their shots. Doctors could demand the same as well as lawyers (confined space entry, safety issues). In reality, all indoor professionals could take a stand with this, including financial planners, even retailers (I doubt retailers would go along with that, but I’m spitballing here).

I’m not saying indoor professionals should draw this line, but it should be at least well discussed in the gen pop with the full risks this virus poses, its risks well communicated to the global general public in order for voluntary vaccination participation rates to be a success. When I read 4 in 10 do not see vaccinations as working or will make them sick, the main takeaway is a fundamental communication breakdown. Covid19 has been heavily politicized with a good deal of misinformation floating around in an ugly election cycle. All that has to end.

Just to repeat, we need 60 to 75% herd immunity to put this virus to rest at least, within borders. Roughly 8% of the U.S. population has already been infected (has herd immunity). Their population pyramid is younger, some 24.8% of the gen pop is aged 19 or less, so it tilts vaccine participation rates lower with all ages.

The U.S. doesn’t have full health care coverage which directly impacts voluntary vaccine participation. Crunch these numbers with the politicization of this virus and what is necessary to reverse it, the U.S. data on vaccine participation rates with flu shots is weak, it’s an uphill battle there.

We may not see herd immunity above 40% when participation rates (40%), efficacy rates (80%) 40 x .8 = 32%, those aged 0 to 18 don’t receive the shot (21.7%), when all of it is factored in. How do we get from say, 25% + 8% = 33% to 65%+? With more people getting sick and dead in the future, that’s how. It won’t come in the numbers to overwhelm hospitals next winter (one can hope), but it will be a drag on economics. People are still going to get sick and not show up for work. We are likely going to see 200,000 or more die every year from this post vaccine for at least the next 3 years or so. There’s a macro economic price to pay in all of this that can’t be papered over. Unless we see a major effort to up a voluntary vaccine rates much higher than the numbers we’ve seen with influenza, I fear that we can forget about economies revisiting 2019 levels for several years to come.

#140 Diamond Dog on 11.28.20 at 7:41 am

About tax increases, yeah… at least we have TSFA’s. I don’t see taxed gains increasing to 75% in one year, likely it will be phased in over 2 years. The GST is going up too, most likely, revenue has to come in from somewhere.

Garth, you make a point on taxed cap gains pulling back the appetite for risk. This would have a more adverse effect on small/mid caps I would think than anything. Not much mention on taxed dividends though. Presumably big money takes its usual course in large caps.

I also believe its time for a new federal government. The Libs have had their moments in the sun, time to pass the torch. I’m not big on wooden, stiff, Republican Lite Canadian first O’toole but if he can keep his mouth shut and quit campaigning as though he’s running as a governor of just another U.S. state (his PR people should be fired), the levels of debt and spending by the Libs require a change. It was Trudeau’s to lose and I think he lost it.

The health of any democracy is dependent on the good health of at least 2 or more political parties. At some point, all political parties burn out, end up stale, conditioned by their environment, in scandal, lose key personnel, cling onto old ideas that become outdated, it happens to them all. When any party borrow more than they take in tax revenue, the scenario begs for the opposition party to form a government and look at the books to see where it went and stop the haemorrhaging.

#141 George on 11.28.20 at 8:34 am

want to know how clueless Ontario public health has become?

shut down Toronto and Peel and yet leave other open. Where do you think the residents of said regions will go to holiday shop? Yup, was in Burlington yesterday, was a buzz. Best wishes Burlington :)

ya cant hide from the bug. And this obsession with positive cases tell us what exactly ? virology 101.

Canada is a mess .

#142 Apocalypse2020 on 11.28.20 at 8:46 am

Iran’s supreme leader vows revenge

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/28/middleeast/iran-mohsen-fakhrizadeh-nuclear-scientists-killed-intl/index.html

Within days, this will link Israel, NK, China, Russia and the USA.

Get the picture?

PREPARE

#143 westcdn on 11.28.20 at 8:47 am

The 1st link is Justin defending his vast public debt expansion because of low interest rates. What he does not address (hides) who is buying this debt. I know pension funds and foreigners are big buyers but there is a 3rd large player.

Cue the 2nd link where Tiff Macklem (BoC) explains his buying of Canadian bonds is merely to keep interest rates low (hiding).

https://youtu.be/ce1wK3DvOTY

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-26/macklem-defends-canada-bond-purchases-from-political-attacks

I fear these two fearless leaders are pursuing a Modern Monetary Theory policy and will soon be joined by Chrystia. It reminds me of the Justin/Bill/Stephen show – different fleas, same dog.

My concern with Canadian MMT policies lies with our need to import life goods in exchange for our resources. This trade lifted our standard of living and no, it was not auto manufacturing which depends on government subsidies and/or access to the US market – ala Bombardier.

Unfortunately, we run a large trade deficit. This will not go away without a reduction to our standard of living. In the longer run, no one will want our stinking Loonie so a devaluation is in order and the BoC wont/cant raise interest rates to defend it.

It means inflation down the road despite “good” governance unless a lot of things that could happen between now and then.

#144 Paul on 11.28.20 at 8:54 am

#119 Adamson BBQ on 11.27.20 at 10:31 pm
Money talks. Adamson BBQ legal defense donations up to $210k in under 3 days.

https://gf.me/u/y98fi8
———————————————————————————————
The best part almost 5,000 contributors wonder who they will be voting against next election? People are getting pissed when they speak with their wallets they speak with their ballots.

#145 Penny Henny on 11.28.20 at 8:54 am

And she plans on succeeding Trudeau.
///////////

I’m well aware of the saying ‘careful what you wish for’ but I wish I never heard his um voice um again.

#146 Paperboy on 11.28.20 at 9:03 am

$666B…how appropriate.

#147 Apocalypse2020 on 11.28.20 at 9:09 am

The impending disaster with Iran will be Trump’s perfect excuse to prorogue the transition to a new president, in order to ‘rescue’ Israel.

The Saudis and Russians will jump aboard fast. And a dozen other countries are waiting for just such a global distraction to pursue their own military interests.

Add to this the total economic and social unravelling about to overtake the USA thanks to COVID19 exploding in the days ahead. Expected to hit 300,000 new cases daily within 2 weeks.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html

And Trump tweets Friday:

“Biden can only enter the White House as President if he can prove that his ridiculous “80,000,000 votes” were not fraudulently or illegally obtained. When you see what happened in Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia & Milwaukee, massive voter fraud, he’s got a big unsolvable problem!”

Those who are prescient will be fleeing major centres before Christmas. The rest may simply not survive.

PREPARE

#148 Apocalypse2020 on 11.28.20 at 9:24 am

Disaster lies ahead.

“US is ’rounding the corner into a calamity,’ expert says, with Covid-19 deaths projected to double soon”

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/28/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html

The first million US cases took 98 days.

The latest million cases happened in the last 6 days.

Do you need a calculator to figure this out?

PREPARE

#149 Looking up on 11.28.20 at 9:27 am

#142 Apocalypse2020 on 11.28.20 at 8:46 am
Iran’s supreme leader vows revenge

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/28/middleeast/iran-mohsen-fakhrizadeh-nuclear-scientists-killed-intl/index.html

Within days, this will link Israel, NK, China, Russia and the USA.

Get the picture?

PREPARE

———-

So on Jan 1, 2021, after none of your dire predictions come to fruition, are you going to change your handle to Apocalypse 2021?

Just wondering.

#150 the Jaguar on 11.28.20 at 9:36 am

Garth Turner! You are not alone in the wilderness!!!
Read this excerpt from an excellent article in today’s National Post, written by lawyer Howard Levitt:

‘When you shine a light on guarded secrets, defensive rage invariably emerges. I have never received such vitriolic, often obscenity- laden responses in 28 years of writing for the Financial Post and The Star before that, as I did for my recent column, discussing employees spending time on whatever they fancied while purportedly ‘working’ from home.

The self- righteous virtue signalling from the ‘ remote- work’ lobby was staggering. They have reason to be defensive and there are many of them. A Robert Half survey found that 85 per cent of employees performing remote work hope to continue that arrangement when the pandemic ends. Some are undoubtedly working harder than ever, taking advantage of their saved commutes. Others are not. They prefer the lifestyle and the fact that they can spend a portion of their day doing anything but working, with management being none the wiser. They fear the day they will be recalled to the office.

History dictates that likelihood. We have had many previous experiences with large- scale remote work. In almost every case, despite companies’ real estate savings, it has failed and employees were recalled to their offices. IBM Corp., Aetna Inc., Best Buy Co., The Bank of America Corp., Yahoo!, AT&T Inc. and Reddit Inc. have all tried it.’

#151 re.,Apocalypse2020 on 11.28.20 at 9:37 am

why r you giving this idiot a platform?

kindly advise

Comic relief. – Garth

#152 Gerhardt Calendar on 11.28.20 at 9:42 am

DELETED

#153 Dharma Bum on 11.28.20 at 9:43 am

In that photo, she really looks like Hayzoos Chrystia. I mean, with her hands in that position, the scraggly hair, and that dopey far off look on her face.

Chrystia the Saviour!

#154 the Jaguar on 11.28.20 at 9:46 am

ooops. Here is the link to Levitt’s article

https://www.pressreader.com/canada/national-post-latest-edition/20201128/page/3

#155 Penny Henny on 11.28.20 at 10:00 am

#91 willworkforpickles on 11.27.20 at 7:41 pm
If by chance no one wins the guest column spot being offered…I for one, among others here, would also like to see Nonplussed get the blog access for the day.
//////////////

How could it even be possible for no one to win when then rules state who ever is closest wins?

#156 Dharma Bum on 11.28.20 at 10:13 am

#102 Kato

I haven’t had a steak in a few years and I mostly eat plant-based.
——————————————————————–

That is a seriously misguided approach to nutrition.

Most plants are toxic. That’s how they survive. It prevents animals from consuming them. Plants will make you sick.

Organically raised, antibiotic free animals are what should be mostly consumed by humans to sustain long term health.

https://chriskresser.com/all-about-the-carnivore-diet-with-dr-paul-saladino/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsPSJ-dXqks

Humans evolved to eat animals. Human health thrives on a balanced diet that includes healthy meat with saturated fat.

#157 willworkforpickles on 11.28.20 at 10:15 am

#155 Penny Henny
“How could it even be possible for no one to win when
then rules state who ever is closest wins?”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
….Was looking at it from if the numbers were to be delayed.

#158 Phylis on 11.28.20 at 11:02 am

WFH is an awesome management opportunity to prepare for the next restructuring event. If you don’t know who the slackers are in your organization, then guess who’s on the list.

#159 Tyberius on 11.28.20 at 6:54 pm

Well, whatever happens, something will happen. Current spending is unsustainable. Yet the prime minister wants to spend more. Since over 40% of voters pay no net tax with the burden heaped atop the shoulders of a few, you can smell what’s coming. Chrystia wrote a landmark book on rich people, “and the fall of everyone else.”

In her world, there would be no powerful wealthy folks.

Just powerful political ones.

And she plans on succeeding Trudeau.
—————————————————————–

Scary indeed!

#160 Tony Cardia on 11.28.20 at 6:54 pm

Let me get his straight gulf breeze, someone that buys a house for their family or themselves is not buying a place to live, shelter for them. So why don’t you think HST/GST on rent paid is a bad idea. It is because you don’t want to pay for social programs, Trudeau’s Liberals wasteful spending, debts, deficits.

Why do homeowners, homebuyers have to pay for it all. You are Canadian too, use services, healthcare, etc. Pay up too or stop telling us homeowners, homebuyers who paid most of all the taxes already from land transfer taxes, property taxes, HST/GST on almost everything related to my house, real estate commissions, utilities, closing costs, lawyer fees, repairs, maintenance etc.

#161 crossbordershopper on 11.28.20 at 9:49 pm

wow im so happy i have no capital gains then i would really be worried. I guess i will get free pills and free child care, and free health care, and free money from uncle Justin forever,
i can relax now. the converter on my tv needs a new battery. maybe justin has a program for that.

#162 good2all on 11.30.20 at 10:51 am

I always have this question in my mind, with so much debt, government and individuals, a higher interests rate is almost certain to trigger a recession (or even worse), at what circumstance CB will have to pull the trigger? inflation? I feel everything is more expensive these days, but the published inflation number is still very low… so low rate will be with us for a very long time???