Missing the mark

Less than six weeks left in this miserable year. And it will end in a funk. Virus. Lockdowns. Crappy Christmas. Too much Zoom. Not enough hugs. Darkness. Winter.

Ellen wrote me yesterday. “I can’t take it,” she said. “Give me one compelling reason why I should not sell everything, go to cash or dump my savings in some low-rate GIC. At least I will still have my money next year, Mr. Broker Man.”

See what fear does to people? No wonder so many financial commentators truck in it. Fear sells. It’s the strongest emotion and motivator. If you’re in the business of flogging gold, annuities, newsletters or paid research, scaring the poop out of people is good for business. Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, David Rosenberg, Martin Armstrong, Nouriel Roubini. The merchants of doom are all over the financial press these days. Leading Ellen stray.

How have the warnings panned out?

Not so good. An advisor in NYC who goes by the moniker of ‘The Reformed Broker’ has a nice twist:

Talking people out of investing for their future because of this or that macro concern will always be a long-term loser, even if there are moments along the way where it looks temporarily smart. Everyone understands that there are potential drawdowns and negative developments that could occur. It doesn’t take talent to continuously harp on them. Smart people allocate assets, take appropriate risks and accept the uncertainty that comes along with the territory – they don’t twitch like squirrels every time someone snaps a twig in the forest.

By the way, here’s a little summary for you of how the financial terrorists have done over the last few years. If you followed their advice, eschewed growth assets like stocks or equity ETFs and hid only in the safety of risk-free bonds, here’s the scorecard:

Click to enlarge. Source: The Reformed Broker

As you can see, following any one of these guys would have cost you. Big. For most people the greatest risk remains running out of money, not losing it. They need growth. Listening to the growls of the bears is a failed strategy now, as it has been in the past. Remember history. Black Monday. Nine Eleven. Y2K. 20% mortgages. The credit crisis. Dot-com crash. Wars. Recessions. And now, again, disease. It is flattery to believe you live in a time of unique risk, or are special for the daunting challenges you face. You don’t, and you’re not. Get over it.

How to invest? In a balanced fashion, with about forty per cent of a portfolio in fixed income or safer assets. Nothing has changed. Put about half of that into a combo of government, corporate and provincial bonds with 15% in preferreds pumping out a 5% dividend and destined to rise with rates, and the remainder in high-yield cash. The rest of the portfolio should be growth assets, roughly a third Canadian, a third US and a third international with a small (5%) REIT component. The more you have to invest, the more complexity can be built in – adding a health care ETF, for example, plus small cap exposure. And don’t forget to hedge against the loonie with a quarter in US-denominated assets.

Be diversified. ETFs are best. Mutual funds cost too much, lack liquidity and can surprise you with taxable distributions. Individual stocks increase volatility and risk, and should be avoided unless you have a seven-figure nestegg, large enough to achieve diversification. Exchange-traded funds are cheap, efficient and liquid. Just don’t buy too many. No moderate portfolio should have more than 15 or 16 positions.

Be tax smart. Understand how to use RRSPs for tax-shifting. Always stuff your TFSAs. Take the free RESP money. Income-split with a spousal retirement plan or a spousal loan. Consider tapping into home equity to diversify and get a tax-deductible borrowing.

When to invest? When you have the money. Timing the market is impossible. 2020 should have taught you that. It sure made the bears look like fools and charlatans.

What not to do? Never chase returns or faddish investments. Never pursue the hot tip your BIL gave you. Don’t expect to retire happy on your company group RRSP or CPP/OAS. Unless you love KD. Don’t buy an annuity when rates are this low. Be wary of insurance floggers, since most people need only a simple, cheap term plan. Never sign up for an educational savings gig with one of the baby vultures. Never seek investment advice from [email protected] Avoid silver, gold and crypto. Don’t let the virus or the nihilists win.

And don’t be Ellen.

144 comments ↓

#1 Lee on 11.25.20 at 2:28 pm

Maybe first.

I do not see why you can’t have more than 15 or 16 ETFs? I don’t see the risk in that.

#2 TurnerNation on 11.25.20 at 2:34 pm

– Watch your food supply. The clear plan seems to be: lock down EVERY major city, prison-style in this country for Christmas. The #s on the telesceens will support this.
Alberta has limited grocery stores to only 25% capacity I heard? Say I thought masks worked?
As mentioned yesterday New Mexico USA is closing even the essential food stores. Forced shortages and rationing.

My local groceteria has an armed police officer guarding its front door. Many desperate and broke people this winter. And to enforce the new global religious CV laws. You line up in the cold, 6-6-6 feet apart. No talking! Armed men watch over you.

— This was already debunked but how many chess moves away are we from troops on our streets handing out food packages? Maybe 3-5 moves. Cull animals – for CV. Shut down grocery stores – for CV. Ban shipments – for CV. Don’t kids yourself they are not playing around this time. Today most every area in N.A. is getting their Emergency Alert System tested – your phone might have gone off. Why?

Slow bans:
“Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf announced Monday new COVID-19 safety measures that include halting alcohol sales the day before Thanksgiving.

— Why are the restaurants being closed by the global government? You still believe that this global shutdown is a hoax? Some people say this is why. A take over the food supply. Must happen by 2030 – says the UN (those attention seekers!). View all this through the intersectional lens of the UN taking over our Feeding, Breeding and Movements:

https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-consumption-production/
Goal 12 Targets
12.3 By 2030, halve per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer levels and reduce food losses along production and supply chains, including post-harvest losses
12.1 Implement the 10-year framework of programmes on sustainable consumption and production, all countries taking action, with developed countries taking the lead, taking into account the development and capabilities of developing countries

#3 Roial1 on 11.25.20 at 2:49 pm

Just read about the lack of a vaccine production facillity in Canada.

The Conservatives are blaming Trudeau for it (production) not existing.

BUT IT was SOLD OUT by MULRONEY and your government In the rush to PRIVATIZE. Comment Garth????

#4 Flop... on 11.25.20 at 2:53 pm

#111 Buy? Curious? on 11.25.20 at 2:25 am

Blah, blah, ugly rant about Smoking Man.

////////////////////////

Pretty loathe to get into this but it has been going on for a couple of months now with various people.

What are you guys trying to get out of this exchange?

Calling a dead guy a loser and whatever else serves what purpose?

Before I go any further, Smoking Man and I were not on the same page on a lot of things.

If someone brings up that Smoking Man was a good prognosticator and someone wants to dispute that, fair enough, I guess.

But to try and run the guy into the ground for no particular reason seems mucho dumbo to me.

I do a couple of tribute posts about Boom early each September, it lets me reflect on our friendship and reminds me of the lessons he was trying to teach me.

Added bonus, if his family checks in, they get to see I kept my promise to never forget him and he was important to someone he spent a chunk of his spare time on, when he could of being doing something with his family instead.

Smoking Man died in the middle of September, make no mistake, more than a few posters will give him a shoutout, next year, and it’s a fair bet that one of his kids check in on this blog perhaps a few days after the anniversary, as some kind of connection to something cherished but lost.

We’re a family on here, we don’t all get on, but find a way to contribute something useful.

Let it go….he can’t hurt you anymore…

M46BC

#5 TurnerNation on 11.25.20 at 2:57 pm

— Dolce Vita got a job for you. Can you translate this? Bunk or Bucko?

https://twitter.com/robinmonotti/status/1331500903564775426?
ITALY: CONFIRMED BY ITALIAN HEALTH SERVICE: False positives to Covid19 test as diagnosis are 95%. Legal cases started against testing under charges of fraud to procure public funding, false alarm, ideological false, and manslaughter.

— As someone with parent of nursing home age soon, I can only conclude, this almost seems perpetual or…worse.
In the end we are just pension liabilities. All in all we’re just another brick in the wall.
Screen shot of CTV news, from another website the number suggest fewer than ~200 people died OUTSIDE the of care homes?? What to make of this

https://tinyurl.com/y3ws3x6g

— Heads up the science just changed! So Scienc-y.

“ The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is considering shortening the current coronavirus quarantine timeline from 14 days to between just seven and 10, according to an exclusive Wall Street Journal report. The agency reportedly hopes the change will inspire more people to comply with the guidelines.”

#6 Dolce Vita on 11.25.20 at 3:03 pm

“As you can see, following any one of these guys would have cost you. Big.”

Well Garth, that describes Gov Canada perfectly with its vaccine “purchases”.

All purchases so far are from FOR PROFIT companies. For example, Pfizer at €20/dose and Moderna at €30/dose. Pfizer needs near cryogenic transport and storage and Moderna freezer temperatures for both. Oxford/Astrazeneca* declare their vaccine AT COST for the duration of the pandemic, €3/dose and needs refrigerator transport and storage.

Ya, you READ THAT CORRECTLY…paying 7X to 10X more for vaccines.

Here, so far is what Gov Canada will be buying (scroll down to Quick Facts – which oddly, are at the end of their news and not at the top…must be a Procurement thing)?

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-services-procurement/news/2020/09/government-of-canada-signs-new-agreements-to-secure-additional-vaccine-candidate-and-treatment-for-covid-19.html

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Add to that, Gov Canada has NO CLUE when the vaccines will arrive. Like I said the other day Gov Canada will probably stumble on the vaccine as it did on PPEs etc. Speaking about the latter, scroll to the table showing how those procurements have been going to date:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-vaccine-rapid-tests-1.5774309

Yes I know, probably many of the items delivered on an as-needed basis though, it does not look good in chart form to me overall.

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*Most of their vaccine will be produced in Italia (2 Billion doses/yr), some in the US (Baltimore Bayview, $87 million worth) and they are open to other manufacturing in countries Worldwide (none announced yet other that Italia and the US):

https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/astrazeneca-taps-catalent-for-covid-19-vaccine-finishing-packaging-at-italian-plant

The EU will buy 300 million doses of their vaccine + option for 100 million more doses.

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PS:

1.7 million Italians to be vaccinated, vaccine on hand, prepped and ready to go in January 2021. Italia has had a “Vaccine Czar” for some time to procure and prepare.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/italy-s-virus-czar-wants-vaccine-makers-to-deal-with-delivery-plan-1.1524640

BUT YOU KNOW, 1 step back, 2 steps forward, horseshoes up their derrière Gov Canada will probably find a way…though at present…IT ISN’T LOOKING GOOD for early 2021 vaccinations in Kanuckistan.

#7 mike from mtl on 11.25.20 at 3:08 pm

..And don’t forget to hedge against the loonie with a quarter in US-denominated assets…
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

What’s the rationale there?

Anything TSX listed for outside Canada exchanges are just wrapped US cross listed – so is inherently US$ e.g. VFV=VOO,VEE=VWO from a currency point of view that is basically the same as the original US$ it’s not like the ETF is in direct Euros for example.

Yes it’s always wise to never hedge on CA$ and in certain containers US stocks make sense to hold. But TFSA for example not really, brokerages ding 1.5% forex so back and forth is not cost efficient, withholding taxes still apply, and most Canadian brokerages the CA and US sides have to ‘settle’ before cash transfers, usually 2 business days.

As well between the accounts there’s contribution limits, cap gains taxes, etc so not so simple to rebalance across different accounts. I treat each individually, and top up only with ‘new’ cash.

Personally I do like this:

TFSA = All CA TSX
Non-Reg = All CA TSX
RSP = All US NYSE

#8 Jr. on 11.25.20 at 3:16 pm

Can anyone help me locate the spreadsheet/calculator (or similar) that was in this particular GF blog: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/03/11/swan-song/

I’m familiar with Garth’s rent vs own ratio and the rule of 90 when it comes to real estate but I recall that spreadsheet was useful for discussions about renting vs owning.

Thanks!

#9 Slim on 11.25.20 at 3:17 pm

Folks, just do as Garth says. Kapeesh?

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/11/today-marked-yet-another-stock-market-record-you-should-ignore/

#10 Keen Reader on 11.25.20 at 3:24 pm

Garth, a bit of “told-you-so” resonates from your posts, lately. Also hard to reconcile not timing the markets vs previously telling us of missed opportunities to buy, while extolling the virtues of a B&D portfolio when the DOW is at all-times high. Valuations have broken from common sense, while ETFs hinder price discovery. While I agree that being all-in is crazy, be it cash, equities/growth ETFS, BTC or PMs, isn’t a little caution called for, at this stage? Thanks

The Dow/S&P account for about 8% of a balanced and diversified portfolio. Don’t let the tail wag the dog. Besides, the US economy (and markets) are expected to see very strong growth in the next couple of years of post-virus recovery. Why would this be a time of extra caution? – Garth

#11 kc on 11.25.20 at 3:24 pm

TURNER NATION …

ITALY: CONFIRMED BY ITALIAN HEALTH SERVICE: False positives to Covid19 test as diagnosis are 95%. Legal cases started against testing under charges of fraud to procure public funding, false alarm, ideological false, and manslaughter.

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

As I said on yesterdays post….

Look into what magnification they use with the PCR test to find a “case” of covid….

Usualy they HIT IT @ 40 x where it will show the smallest of a micro in your system, and this is asymptomatic to the point of NILL. then do they call it a case?

here are 2 links if garth lets them through.

cheers

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2020/11/23/pandemic-is-over-former-pfizer-chief-science-officer-says-second-wave-faked-on-false-positive-covid-tests/

https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/11/pcr-test-result

#12 Ben Olson on 11.25.20 at 3:26 pm

First time comment here, ( btw thanks Garth for all you do ) . Although I know that Turnernation is a troll with very little to add to any online conversation I had to refute his observation that food is in short supply… I work for a major Canadian food supplier and we are absolutely booming with stuffed 53′ tractor trailers leaving the dock every day. Shortage? Hardly.

#13 SoggyShorts on 11.25.20 at 3:27 pm

#1 Lee on 11.25.20 at 2:28 pm

I do not see why you can’t have more than 15 or 16 ETFs? I don’t see the risk in that.

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Even with low fees, more than 16 would mean a lot of rebalancing expenses.

Also, there really only are just over a dozen ETFs out there that don’t overlap, or unless you start getting super-specific in which case you get closer and closer to stock picking.

#14 Dolce Vita on 11.25.20 at 3:29 pm

If you will let me Garth an Homage and 1 Euro COVID-19 Porn.

1st:

Eterno Riposo Diego Maradona that passed away today at age 60. Not one of the numerous European dailies that I perused missed on making that headline news today. Commie “Il Manifesto” Laconic as usual with their 2 word headlines:

https://i.imgur.com/55NztQg.jpg

All the other dailies with superlatives a mile long in their headlines, then again, he deserves that.

2nd (slow day @Bild in Deutschland other than their Diego headline):

“Zombie mink” scares Denmark
(Carcasses Come Back To The Earth’s Surface After A Corona Mutation)

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/news/ausland/news-ausland/nach-corona-mutation-zombie-nerze-erschrecken-daenemark-74133878,view=conversionToLogin.bild.html

…why I love Bild. Cheeky Deutschers.

#15 truefacts on 11.25.20 at 3:29 pm

Simple financial plan (for established people with some assets)…

Family Home fully paid off
NO DEBT (no car leases, mortages, locs,CC debt, etc)
Enough cash in the bank to live for a year based on current spending

Then:

5% of portfolio in fixed-reset preferreds
5% of portfolio in high quality reits
Remainder of porfolio in 25-30 high quality multi-national stocks (50% Canadian with foreign operations and 50% US blue chip mega caps with global operations) with no weighting over 5% of portfolio.

Dividends roll in regularly and increase over time – sit and do nothing else. The US giants have operations spanning the globe, so you have exposure to virtually all global markets.

* Add a high tech etf (perhaps 5-7% of portfolio) to gain exposure there as it’s hard to choose the winners and losers, but it’s an area that will be rewarding if you buy in cheap enough (ie. not now)

* Stock up on toilet paper before there is another run and shortages happen!

#16 Chris Parley on 11.25.20 at 3:29 pm

Garth, if you let me post this, gold is not a topic I know you don’t like to discuss. What was wrong with us buying our $375 to $425 Canadian dollars a troy ounce maple leaf gold coins. We bought 250 each, 500 total for me and my wife with our net RRSP’s cashed over 2 years to minimize income taxes keeping it maximum 30% tax rates. They are now worth at least $2,200 Canadian a troy ounce each. They did pretty good, 3.5 times our GIC’s average of 4% simple after compound 6.22% a year all we did is buy and hold them for 22 years.

We are always very conservative only having GIC’s, term deposits, Ontario Savings Bonds, savings accounts. We saved this to have a minimum 25 years of living expenses+ 3% annual inflation adjustments yearly. We are both retired now in our late 60’s with CPP, OAS, $2,875 a month which covers all our living costs, property taxes, utilities etc. with $350 a month left over. No debts at all for 30 years now, modest GTA home paid off completely.

So take your profits – Garth

#17 Thomas on 11.25.20 at 3:33 pm

Stay invested = sitting duck

Successful investors know when to take profits/sell.

As the old adage says: SELL HIGH.

It does not say: buy low and stay invested….

The market hit dozens of new highs in 2019. Did you sell each time then? – Garth

#18 Steerage on 11.25.20 at 3:40 pm

#16 Chris Parley on 11.25.20 at 3:29 pm

Garth, if you let me post this, gold is not a topic I know you don’t like to discuss. What was wrong with us buying our $375 to $425 Canadian dollars a troy ounce maple leaf gold coins. We bought 250 each, 500 total for me and my wife with our net RRSP’s cashed over 2 years to minimize income taxes keeping it maximum 30% tax rates. They are now worth at least $2,200 Canadian a troy ounce each. They did pretty good, 3.5 times our GIC’s average of 4% simple after compound 6.22% a year all we did is buy and hold them for 22 years.

We are always very conservative only having GIC’s, term deposits, Ontario Savings Bonds, savings accounts. We saved this to have a minimum 25 years of living expenses+ 3% annual inflation adjustments yearly. We are both retired now in our late 60’s with CPP, OAS, $2,875 a month which covers all our living costs, property taxes, utilities etc. with $350 a month left over. No debts at all for 30 years now, modest GTA home paid off completely.

So take your profits – Garth

….
So…… you have a million bucks in solid gold coins buried in your yard… so your address is…?? !! and you will of course declare your taxes!

#19 JacqueShellacque on 11.25.20 at 3:50 pm

You’re being too hard on Ellen, Garth. Perhaps deep down she understands path dependence, that thing our ancestors knew about before suspender snapping types started using spreadsheets and computers. It’s not what the investments have done that matters, but what they might do, and the order in which they may do them. The overvaluation is historic and staying away for the time being is not likely to be more harmful than getting caught when this inevitably gets corrected.

History does not support that myth. Gaining days missed far outpower losing days avoided. – Garth

#20 Mandy Bates on 11.25.20 at 3:50 pm

I keep reading about these pandemic financial related surveys like the one from Manulife. They say those under 40 and lower income are under greater financial strain.

All my brothers and sisters, total 4 of us are all 34 to 36 and lived in a household to always keep our eye on the money ball so to speak. We don’t have high paying jobs, full time yes but $36,000 to $41,000 a year and 3 of us have at least 1or 2 kids.

Yet, we managed to all save, have anywhere from $125,000 to $175,000 in our 12 years or so of our full time working lives, raising families, some of our spouses being out of work for a year or two. If we don’t have that much or most of it in RRSP’s, TFSA’s, GIC’s, savings accounts, ETF’S, mutual funds, investments etc. we have it in our home equity.

We talk on a regular basis and we see alot of people making alot of bad financial decisions, financial moves costing them tens of thousands just because they are not better informed, don’t use a specialized professional like an accountant, lawyer, mortgage broker, investment, financial advisor etc.

I don’t know why people are lazy or just don’t care about their personal, family finances. It makes no sense to me.

#21 Soldier on 11.25.20 at 3:51 pm

Hey Garth, another great post, the word crypto stuck out to me. You see no merrit in bitcoin eh? As a Canadian Forces pilot I love it when I see bitcoin ATMs around the world, and can withdrawl some local currency, my debit and credit cards rip me off so much when i travel. And with the 21 million limit, and all the money printing, still nothing eh? You can’t support it? It’s going crazy, I respect Michael Saylor almost as much as I respect you. And he just got in! Can we have a bitcoin post? lol

#22 SoggyShorts on 11.25.20 at 3:54 pm

#7 mike from mtl on 11.25.20 at 3:08 pm

Personally, I do like this:

TFSA = All CA TSX
Non-Reg = All CA TSX
RSP = All US NYSE

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Same here, I have our RRSPs in USD and all in VOO.
No foreign withholding tax and obviously we use NG to move CAD to USD to avoid brokerage fees.

TFSAs are all XIU

Non-reg hold ZSP & HTB

For us, that conveniently makes our PF ~30% USD which is close enough to GT’s 25% recommendation.

Rebalancing is also super simple since we can do it all in our joint non-reg with at most 2 transactions.

It was a toss-up for what to put in the TFSA but ultimately we went with the maple stuff since instead of getting the Canadian dividend tax credit we just avoid any taxes on it altogether.
Everything else in the PF is basically cap gains, and we can pull out $50K of that each year without paying any taxes.

#23 Andrewski on 11.25.20 at 3:59 pm

Both my parent’s lived in to their 90’s & due to my Dad’s financial literacy & conservative lifestyle, yet wanting for nothing, they never ran out of money. Maybe surviving WW2 & being sent to Siberia until the war ended helped set their minds to live within their means & appreciate everything they worked hard for.

#24 Dolce Vita on 11.25.20 at 4:01 pm

Delete this Garth if you don’t want it going thru.

#5 TurnerNation

— Dolce Vita got a job for you. Can you translate this? Bunk or Bucko?

————————–

Gee thanks. Everyone’s Admin Assistant here save you My Liege.

About the Twitter sources.

1. The “Tweeter” is an architect & film producer into New Agey movies. Not much more to say there.

2. The “Expert”, Stefano Scoglio, #1 quotes and relies upon for “street cred” (newspaper photo and article in 1 of the VOLUMINOUS Tweets) is a Naturopathic New Age kind of guy. Google his name and you will see what I mean.

The story was debunked already by an Italian Fact Checking site (that I subscribe to – use Chrome, right click, Translate to English and “Tamponi” in the headline is not “Tampons”, well it can be but in this context it means “swabs”, as in test swabs):

https://facta.news/storie/2020/11/06/perche-la-teoria-di-stefano-scoglio-sui-tamponi-che-gonfiano-i-positivi-e-sbagliata/

—————–

Conspiracy theorists is what I read but who knows?

“Quisque amat conspiratio”.

#25 Rick Delaney on 11.25.20 at 4:07 pm

Garth, regarding Chris Parley there, I don’t know the future but I bet gold prices are going higher in the next decade. I think he does not want to cash in just yet.

I would not be surprised of $3,100 gold in 3 to 5 years and $4,200 gold in 7 to 8 years. This is in Canadian dollars per ounce not US dollars. It is just my opinion and years at looking at gold prices but many out there are probably look at this too.

PMs are not an appropriate asset for most people to own. They pay no interest or dividends, are volatile, unpredictable, cost money to store and constitute an emotional gamble. Better to have exposure to gold producers through a Canadian equity ETF. – Garth

#26 greyhound on 11.25.20 at 4:23 pm

If inflation is around the bend, a 60/40 portfolio may profit by becoming a 50/30 with 20% in commodities.

#27 Brian Ripley on 11.25.20 at 4:24 pm

My “Real” (nominal rate less CPI) 10yr Bank of Canada Bond yield chart http://www.chpc.biz/real-10yr-rate.html

… suggests the Risk Trade has ended if the TSX gold plot down from the recent high is a meaningful indicator. And the TSX Real Estate plot on the same chart is struggling to remain above the May 2020 crash low. And of course, the TSX Energy plot continues to carve out new lows after 12 years of relentless selling.

The FX traders appear to have a different set of ideas and are buying $CAD and selling $USD for the second trading week in a row and yet WTIC has been in rally mode since the beginning of November.

On the covid front, a huge spreader event is happening via cross border travellers: http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/public-exposures-flights-tables-Current.pdf

The top half of the 10 page PDF shows the domestic flights in Canada with the seating rows that have reported Covid cases and the bottom half of the PDF shows the international flights in and out of Canada (with affected seat rows).

#28 Ian on 11.25.20 at 4:32 pm

Hi Garth,

I noticed your comment on RESP’s. Wondering if you had an opinion on maxing out the contribution ($50K lifetime) or just contributing enough to get the maximum grant each year ($7,200). My first was born in June, we contributed $10K to her RESP this year, got the maximum grant of $500. Thinking is that $10K today is worth far more with 18 years of compounding, plus this rally we will have coming out of COVID. Plus, we can afford to do it being at home this year. Year 2, $9K, and then each following year contribute just enough to get the maximum grant, i.e. $2,500 for $500 Trudeau Dollars. Or should we hold back on year 2 and just contribute enough for the grant. The table below of my plan. Not advocating that a child should get a free education paid by parents. Just a realist and having paid for our own, its too expensive a burden with student loans. I have 18 years to figure out not having an entitled daughter, but for now, any thoughts in a future post?

Also, the following is invested all in ETF’s mix of growth income funds,etc. She’s doing well already!
Age $Contribution $Grant
1 10,000 500
2 9,000 500
3 2,500 500
4 2,500 500
5 2,500 500
6 2,500 500
7 2,500 500
8 2,500 500
9 2,500 500
10 2,500 500
11 2,500 500
12 2,500 500
13 2,500 500
14 2,500 500
15 1,000 200 END OF CONTRIBUTIONS
16 0 0
17 0 0
18 0 0

#29 Squire on 11.25.20 at 4:33 pm

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-did-trudeaus-first-wave-spend-leave-the-cupboard-bare-for-the-second

No more cookies in the cookie jar. I only have crumbs to give and may don’t even have crumbs left. Long winter ahead “Darkness. Winter.” as Garth mentioned.

#30 Faron on 11.25.20 at 4:36 pm

Thanks for the excellent column again today Garth. I’m seeking advice on my roboadvisor. Wealthsimple, currently has me with about 2/3 exposure to USD denominated funds (held in an RRSP). Basically, everything that’s not made up of Canadian equities and a small bond holding is in USD. This bugs me given that a 25% to 30% target is preferred. I asked and they replied that it’s done for the lower fees and increased liquidity of those larger ETFs. CAD has strengthened throughout this recovery versus the USD so I’m seeing less apparent portfolio growth.

To ice the cake, they have 2.5% allocated toward gold claiming that it’s a better instrument than the inflation protected bonds they formerly held (via QTIP). That also bugs me. Bigly. Why keep a volatile, trendy, bubbly precious metal in the fixed income portion of a portfolio? They made the change in September and since then GLDM has lost 6% while QTIP is down 0.35% but yields ~1% annually. Sure, gold could rally, but this seems to defeat the purpose of the fixed income portion of a port…

Is this enough of a reason to look for another robot or for me to take the reins (bad idea given that I’m my worst enemy when things start to look bad)? If I bail now, I will realize the losses, but USD looks pretty wobbly to me lately.

Thanks in advance to you or anyone who has advice.

#31 CJohnC on 11.25.20 at 4:36 pm

Flop… on 11.25.20 at 2:53 pm
#111 Buy? Curious? on 11.25.20 at 2:25 am

Blah, blah, ugly rant about Smoking Man.
*********
I have agree with Flop…I don’t understand the need of fragile egos to continually try to throw shade on a dead man.
You may think he hurt you in some way, and that you are special……as Garth might say…..he didn’t and your not. Get over it

#32 Drinking on 11.25.20 at 4:39 pm

Great blog today Garth although cash on the side and I do like my silver (used in everyday electrical and other products) I certainly can see a big upswing once we can have some sort of control over this virus, and most importantly prepare for others that are coming. We blew a gasket on this one let us hope never to do that again.

Here is probably the funniest story I have read in a long time. I think they needed more dynamite, make sure to watch the video! We all need a good laugh!

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/covid-19-trial-volunteer-jonathan-salk-on-vaccine-patents-toy-story-turns-25-d-d-tackles-racism-and-more-1.5809626/50-years-ago-oregon-state-officials-blew-up-a-whale-and-led-a-news-reporter-to-infamy-1.5809633

#33 Eco Capitalist on 11.25.20 at 4:41 pm

I loved KD as a kid. As an adult I prefer Annie’s (uses real cheese, not cheese product). Pricey though, so this necessitated better retirement planning. :-)

#34 Faron on 11.25.20 at 4:46 pm

#19 JacqueShellacque on 11.25.20 at 3:50 pm

…more harmful than getting caught when this inevitably gets corrected…

History does not support that myth. Gaining days missed far outpower losing days avoided. – Garth

Sorry to pile on here, but in my testing the waters of timing markets (only for a year or so now though) I’ve found that even if you call the drop correctly, it’s equally hard to call the time to buy back in. You are basically raising the difficulty to the second power making it very likely that you will get things wrong.

Very crudely, if you have a 50:50 chance on the sell and 50:50 on the buy back in, you have a 1 in 4 chance of getting the correct combo. This means, cruder yet, that the downside has to outweigh the upside by a factor of four. Sure, drops can be steep, but look at what the markets have done in November! Gonzo.

If you are okay with lower overall returns, consider researching the use of cheap hedges. You will see a continual bleed from your portfolio, but when things turn sour you could do well. But, again, you need to know when to sell those hedges…

#35 Howard on 11.25.20 at 4:46 pm

History does not support that myth. Gaining days missed far outpower losing days avoided. – Garth

——————————-

What if the 60/40 portfolio goes back to how it performed prior to 1981?

That was the most useless thing you have ever posted. – Garth

#36 Dutchy on 11.25.20 at 4:59 pm

[email protected] Not good.
Is TNM(an)@TB OK ???

Joking of course.

#37 Prince Polo on 11.25.20 at 5:30 pm

Glad you found the material useful! Although, I have a confession to make: I watch The Reformed Broker dude from time to time on CNBC. What is my penance for such a blatant violation of the greaterfool cardinal rules? Please don’t say comments moderator for a month…

#38 SoggyShorts on 11.25.20 at 5:32 pm

#30 Faron on 11.25.20 at 4:36 pm
Thanks for the excellent column again today Garth. I’m seeking advice on my roboadvisor.

********************
I’m surprised you’re still with a robo. Why not an all in-one ETF?

It should be fairly simple to supplement one with an RRSP that is all USD and holds just VOO.
This reduces your maple exposure (which is too high in VBAL) avoids the foreign withholding taxes and gives you the USD exposure you want.
If you like Reits & Prefs (I don’t) just add those manually too, either in your TFSA or non-reg.

I’m much happier after reducing to my very simple 4 ETF portfolio, and any minor inefficiencies are covered by having a weighted expense ratio of 0.09%

#39 Matsebula on 11.25.20 at 5:34 pm

Just read ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street’ and do what it says. Invest and stay invested.

#40 Ayn Rand fan on 11.25.20 at 5:35 pm

Thanks for what you do Garth.

We discussed my family’s finances about 8 years ago and I took most of your advice and happy to report that hubby retired last week and I will be joining him in May. We are young enough to embark/continue with hobby-like jobs which will keep up engaged and provide the extra funding for extravagant trips. We travelled 5 times in 2019 and anxious to travel next year.

RRSPs outperformed; as did RESPs and kids are done university and launched (well daughter applied to law school for September). House paid off last year and savings have grown nicely since (since there was no travel).

My number one goal is to focus on our health. Well mostly my health as I am a long term Type 1 diabetic.

There is light at the end of the tunnel and if the foundation is built properly, it all comes together as planned.

#41 dogwhistle on 11.25.20 at 5:36 pm

Our very own drama queen, sorry drama teacher had 8 months to do something about it….

But it’s priorities:

save the banks/mortgages

Something something WE charity

Help Morneau book a dinner table in Paris for his future job at the OECD.

Questions?

PS: I’m starting to believe that Turnernation is Garth’s other personality when he runs out of Crown Royal ;-)

#42 dogwhistle on 11.25.20 at 5:37 pm

#5 TurnerNation on 11.25.20 at 2:57 pm
— Dolce Vita got a job for you. Can you translate this? Bunk or Bucko?

————————————-

Avengers Assemble! lol

#43 Freedom First on 11.25.20 at 5:39 pm

#4 Flop

Flop, I still read all of your posts. Though I may not always agree with everything you write, I really do enjoy, respect, and understand where you are coming from and the way you handle yourself. You are a class act. Sincerely.

Freedom First

#44 dogwhistle on 11.25.20 at 5:40 pm

#6 Dolce Vita on 11.25.20 at 3:03 pm

—————————–

We get it Foza Italia and all that. lol

in mean time do you know what the letter I is in the well known acronym PIGS from the 2008 recession?

P for Portugal

I for ???

G for Greece

S for Spain

Basically the list of free spending fiscal basketcases. lol

#45 Piano_Man87 on 11.25.20 at 5:41 pm

While I generally follow your advice, Garth, with a 60/40 ETF portfolio with healthy diversification, and only annual rebalancing/investing, I find some of the posts on macro risks to be suffering from your own personal recency bias.

I’m 33. Assuming I live to 82 (average life expectancy for a male in Canada), it will be 2069 when I die.

The “radical” environmentalists have pointed out that we have about until 2030 to get emissions down or positive feedback loops will doom the planet. Maybe to 2050 to be carbon zero. Who knows, maybe they will be wrong. Maybe 99% of the scientists are wrong. (lol) If the temperature gets hot enough, organized human life is threatened. Hundreds of millions of climate refugees. Climate disasters causing food prices to spike due to droughts and floods. Loss of biodiversity. The ability to maintain a stable society weakens. Investors do not want to sink money into uncertainty. None of this is at all controversial.
The long term effects of climate change on society are beginning to be felt, and every year they will get worse and worse. Yet capitalism rages on as it needs to, in order to provide us with immense prosperity. Within my lifetime, I will know if we are going to be okay, or if we have no choice but to “chop down every last tree to feed the furnace,” so to speak.

Eventually, if we stay on this path, we will one day realize we are toast – probably in my life time, but not in yours (how convenient?). What do you think is going to happen to capital markets when we realize we crossed the Rubicon? Don’t you think at that point a different life strategy will become required? And it won’t rely on putting savings in ETF’s?

#46 Dave on 11.25.20 at 5:45 pm

GT, or shall I say G&T. I too was like Ellen until I started to drink the Greaterfool Cool Aid too. On the worst days I would read the blog (You should publish earlier so fewer people would hit the sell button) and get a sense of calm and not being so alone in my angst. Today I hit $946,717.15 if I count my wifes accounts (89% cash) must be related to Ellen we are at the magic Million and change. Not bad for a unilingual high school graduate with a penchant for single malts. Thanks, and here’s to a “double” in the coming years. Hell I might even be able to afford to pay you a visit, if they ever open the bubble.

All the best,

#47 dogwhistle on 11.25.20 at 5:46 pm

#30 Faron on 11.25.20 at 4:36 pm

——————————

I use wealthsimple too for my RRSP, returns at 7.3% which is pretty good with the mess of the last few months.

Here’s the list of ETF’s:

EEMV

IEFA

VTI (16.8% performance!!!)

ACWV

XIC

In a balanced portfolio risk level 4.

#48 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 11.25.20 at 5:50 pm

The reason stock are rising is investors think Georgia will send at least one Republican to the Senate. It is most likely that the run off elections on January 5 will elect a least one Republican Senator giving them the crucial 51 seats necessary to continue to control the Senate.

This means no “Green New Deal”, and more importantly for Wall Street no increase in corporate taxes at least for the next two years.

Basically Wall Street is happy because Trumps Corporate Tax Cuts and much of his all of the above energy policy will remain thanks to a probable Republican controlled Senate.

Of coarse in the unlikely event the Republicans lose control of the Senate all bets are off. The Democrats only need 50 seats to control the Senate assuming Kamala Harris becomes Vice President because she gets the tie breaking vote.

Over the next few weeks I will have a big case of “Georgia On My Mind”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIp9TwSEgFg

It has nothing to do with Georgia. – Garth

#49 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.25.20 at 6:02 pm

First people were complaining that Trudeau was overreacting in his response to the virus “hoax”.
Now they are complaining that he’s not doing enough to secure the vaccine supply.
Make up your minds.

#50 ronh on 11.25.20 at 6:02 pm

PSA: https://financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/bmos-brian-belski-an-unprecedented-10-year-bull-market-is-coming

#51 KNOW IT ALL on 11.25.20 at 6:03 pm

Impeaching the Governor for locking down the state in the name of public safety. Just imagine.

USA is toast.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/michigan-county-board-whitmer-impeachment

#52 East Coast Life Style on 11.25.20 at 6:09 pm

To Buy? Curious?

We in the comment section eagerly await
a thorough description of any of your late night
back alley brawls.

C’mon man!

#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.25.20 at 6:09 pm

#12 Ben Olson on 11.25.20 at 3:26 pm
First time comment here, ( btw thanks Garth for all you do ) . Although I know that Turnernation is a troll with very little to add to any online conversation I had to refute his observation that food is in short supply… I work for a major Canadian food supplier and we are absolutely booming with stuffed 53′ tractor trailers leaving the dock every day. Shortage? Hardly.
————-
Thanks for your report from the frontline.
We need more posts like this to confront the conspiracy theorists.

#54 C V on 11.25.20 at 6:17 pm

Wonderful post today Garth. Thank you for the smack down of all these doom and gloomers. If the world “collapses” we will have worse problems then our portfolios.

#55 Nonplused on 11.25.20 at 6:19 pm

Turns out I was wrong and TPTB are a little smarter than I thought.

Schools in Alberta for grades 7-12 will close on Monday. Learning will transfer to online. (This was a mess last time they tried it, it takes a while to set up a good online curriculum. This puts the kids who went online all semester in the lead I think.) K-6 will, strangely, still be in school.

This makes sense to me. If you can’t have more than 10 people at a once in a lifetime event like your own funeral, how does it make sense to stuff 35 kids in a classroom every day? So the only part I am still not sure about is why they aren’t closing K-6. Those are the germiest of the germy kids.

#56 Calgary Rip Off on 11.25.20 at 6:24 pm

I think my microsoft shares have 4x since 2000 when I bought them. Maybe I will sell them in 20 years.

Doesnt make sense to sell because of panic.

I put a bunch of money in the yearly RRSP. Wife manages the tax free savings accounts.

Im happy Kenney didnt shut businesses down completely as he shouldnt. Although I work in health care, small businesses provide needed services. Keep them open!

Instead Kenney and Hinshaw should be advocating Vitamin C and D3 for everyone in addition to all the hand washing and face masks. This only makes sense.

One of the biomed techs in his mid sixties that I work with told me he doesnt take vitamin D3. I showed him studies on the Vitamin D3 hammer and the recent study for frail elderly in south France helped survive by D3. I told him he should start with 2000 iu D3 daily. If he gets sick use the D3 Hammer as physicians call it, and 500-1500 mg vitamin C when well. If sick with Covid, I told him 2 grams Vitamin C every 1-2 hours until he is totally saturated and gets the runs. Better the runs on the toilet than permanent heart, lung, or stroke risks. I hope Kenney and Hinshaw would advocate such therapies but they dont likely due to legal BS on advising vitamins.

The nice thing about Vitamin D3 and C is they are very cheap to buy at Walmart or practically anywhere and have side effects that can be managed by moderating dose. Too much anxiety from high D3 intake? Reduce it a little and add magnesium through foods such as oats and spinach. Got the runs from Vitamin C? Reduce the dose by 500 mg. No runs? Increase the vitamin C dose. As some would say on this blog, “prepare”.

By being healthy, sound investment decision making is easier.

#57 Maybe they think ... on 11.25.20 at 6:28 pm

#20 Mandy Bates on 11.25.20 at 3:50 pm
don’t use a specialized professional like an accountant, lawyer, mortgage broker, investment, financial advisor etc.
I don’t know why people are lazy or just don’t care about their personal, family finances. It makes no sense to me.
———————————————————–
It’s good value for money or … as a friend says “hire your weaknesses” Sometimes it is well worth it.

#58 Faron on 11.25.20 at 6:29 pm

#38 SoggyShorts on 11.25.20 at 5:32 pm

I haven’t learmed enough self control to not bail when the going gets rough. I made mistakes in March that put me back a few percent… Joining finances with the SO, so may try again and give her the keys. Amd the “fun” account helps me scratch the itch.

#47 dogwhistle on 11.25.20 at 5:46 pm

Huh, no GLDM? i have a higher risk level. Maybe that’s why?

Equities I have:
IEFA
VTI
EEMV
XIC
ACWV
VUS

And for fixed:

ZFL
GLDM
XSH

Thanks guys!

#59 zoey on 11.25.20 at 6:36 pm

Amen … listen to Garth.

p.s And never listen to self serving real estate agents.

#60 Ancient Ron on 11.25.20 at 6:36 pm

@ Peter the separatist from Calgary

Don’t think so Peter. The Market mover yesterday was Janet Yellen being nominated as Treasury Sec. She is Dovish on Interest rates and Pro QE. So the Fed and Administration are already on the same page. It was not the state of Georgia.

Rest easy Old Joe is no Socialist. Look at his cabinet. Centre to Centre right. If he catches a few breaks like an effective end to this Pandemic, the USA economy could go gang busters. And who knows that might get “Alberta Select” back north of $50 USD a barrel someday, which the Alberta oil patch desperately needs.

And don’t separate.

#61 CJohnC on 11.25.20 at 6:36 pm

#8 Jr. on 11.25.20 at 3:16 pm
Can anyone help me locate the spreadsheet/calculator (or similar) that was in this particular GF blog: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/03/11/swan-song/
*********

Jr. I worry about you. You gave yourself the answer. Click the link you quote , go to the last paragraph of the blog and click where it says “You can play with Etienne’s calculator by going here.”

The link still works.

#62 Paul Summerville on 11.25.20 at 6:44 pm

Garth, To be fair to Rosenberg he did go long gold in the summer of 2019. Paul

#63 zoey on 11.25.20 at 6:49 pm

#17 Thomas

“Stay invested = sitting duck”

…………………………………………….

I agree if you hold individual stocks. “I’m a long investor and not selling” has caused me big losses. Imagine actually believing a companies management ! How naive was I. Learned my lesson, now only ETF’s. I don’t even need to look at them and they pay quarterly or monthly. Its a no brainer.

#64 Dolce Vita on 11.25.20 at 7:07 pm

#44 dogwhistle

See Figure 1:

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/blogs/canadas-spending-and-deficits-higher-than-comparable-countries-during-pandemic#:~:text=Among%20this%20group%2C%20Canada%20has,(see%20first%20chart%20below).&text=Furthermore%2C%20Canada%20ranks%20higher%20than,a%20similar%20economy%20to%20Canada.

Italia posted +16.1% GDP in Qtr 2 to Qtr 3. Look up Canada’s on your own. Or, here you go:

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/gdp-growth

———————————-

And what does P-I-G-S have to do with vaccine costs, Gov Canada COVID-19 procurement performance so far?

Rebut the sources would be a better tact than with some unrelated, scratching my head argument. And even an argument using a term become famous in 2009 which if I recall correctly the PIGS were not the only ones in a pickle during this minor economic event:

The Great Recession.

#65 JacqueShellacque on 11.25.20 at 7:07 pm

#34 Faron

“Sorry to pile on here, but in my testing the waters of timing markets (only for a year or so now though) I’ve found that even if you call the drop correctly, it’s equally hard to call the time to buy back in. You are basically raising the difficulty to the second power making it very likely that you will get things wrong.”

I can’t argue this point, except to say I was referring less about strategies like ‘market timing’ and more about how someone like Ellen that Garth referenced isn’t as irrational as one might think for not wanting to be in now. Obviously only the very lucky would succeed at selling at the top and buying at the bottom. I’m not myself interested in strategizing in that way per se, only in avoiding the really bad. The middling stuff like the alleged ‘8% per year’ of a B&D doesn’t turn my crank so much, especially knowing that the implosion of an overvalued market would really mean that ‘8% per year’ isn’t really 8% per year. Your point on hedges hits the nail on the head, and I think makes people like Garth’s Ellen not as unreasonable as they sound – schlubs with no interest in money other than not losing it (again, not an irrational mindset) can’t do this, at least not in a way that wouldn’t cost them more than it would be worth. It’s simply wrong to only look at the gains that might (!) happen without not only accounting for the losses, but when these losses might occur and in what order the gains and losses might come. How old is Ellen, for example? There’s a huge difference between 25 and 55 when it comes to the time horizon that’s available, and that would have a huge bearing on whether we shouldn’t be Ellens, or whether Ellen shouldn’t be an Ellen.

#66 crossbordershopper on 11.25.20 at 7:15 pm

the first time i tried KD i was like 19 first year in university. some girl, i honestly cant remember her name, she was dutch is all i remember, well some other things but thats another story. She wanted to impress me invited me over for dinner. I thought it was some English version of Italian food I was used to every day of my life. I found it too creamy, over compromise the cheese. It was an attempt but ok. Ever since then, I really didnt mind having some on occassion, it was plastic food sure, just like Little Cesear’s , its hot and ready not exaclty good and tasty. but cheap and so is KD, cheap.
Ive had 8 dollar buffet in Florida, better than some 80 dollar meals at restaurants in Canada.
If you are a good cook, or even a half decent one, you can cook very nutritious food, with a small budget. Do you know what Tiffin Service is, its east indian food, delveried to your door all over the Toronto area. every day of the week for like 200 bucks. a month. food is expensive if you make it expensive. there is nothing wrong with Naan, or biriyani, veg or chicken, etc, in terms of Italian food, i love tuna with oil with linguini very inexpensive, good for you, and tasty. I think people should learn to cook with onions, garlic, potatoes etc, basics, foundation and go up the food channel from there.
so when people say, hey you dont want to eat KD when you get old, the old story of Sobeys comes to mind. Frank Sobey was in NS in 1980, dying of cancer and his son came over and saw his dad eat a hard boiled egg, asked why you eating that, he said thats all he could eat. so even with hundreds of grocery stores, in the end simply eating food that agrees is a big deal regardless of money.

#67 mountain guy on 11.25.20 at 7:18 pm

#45 Piano_Man87
Thank you! Damn good questions. I share your concerns, not for myself as an old guy, but for my decendants, nieces & nephews, in Canada and abroad, and their friends, their concerns, their futures.

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.25.20 at 7:19 pm

Garth.
I agree with today blog topic about not panicking, staying the course, thinking long term, and portfolio diversification.

Its how I’ve always viewed the market.

However. No disrespect.

Trust is the biggest issue with neophyte investors ( and a lot of experienced investors).
When people are trusting someone with their entire retirement savings….
You cant legislate “Trust”. (Or what’s in the best interest of the client for that matter.)
Lets face it.
The money management industry wouldn’t exist if other people with money weren’t either too lazy (me) or too ignorant (me) to bother doing it ourselves.

The Economist last week had an excellent multi page special article on the investment management industry and they were none too impressed with the high fees, unrealistic promises made to clients and lack of regulation to punish the financial management dregs.

I’m glad I’m now a Raymond James client with low fees, excellent service and a balanced and diversified portfolio.

My previous financial “advisor” was a lazy, salesman, huckster with a legitimate advisors’ license that he has held for decades…. that “financial advisor” cost me tens ( if not hundreds) of thousands in potential earnings and more work years added on before retirement.

The industry needs an enema or at least rules with teeth.
I wont hold my breath.

Canada doesn’t keep murderers in jail very long so a shyster fleecing clients, with a good lawyer, would be hard pressed to spend a day in jail after years of Court battles.

#69 Graeme on 11.25.20 at 7:21 pm

I agree with most… I like how your 40% is “safe” rather than just “bonds”. I don’t see how bonds in the traditional 60/40 is going to help when rates are this low? Past 2 years I’ve made a killing loaded up on silver and gold–mostly in the form of mining stocks. Miners are just tied to metals prices only even more volatile. I’d suggest a bullion ETF before anything heavy on mining shares. Crypto guys are laughing now too. You can say this is gambling but it’s only gambling on more central bank juice… which is kindof like gambling the sun will rise tomorrow. Any anti-dollar bet that’s even half baked is going to pay in the 2020s. Just my thoughts.

#70 Drill Baby Drill on 11.25.20 at 7:25 pm

Hey all of you blog mutts that had an odd notion that Canada is a first world country should rethink that notion. Canada cannot produce a covid vaccine but must rely on true first world countries for this supply. We are mostly dependent on the USA for fresh food most of the year now we have to be dependent on the Europeans and the USA for covid relief.

#71 "NUTS" on 11.25.20 at 7:32 pm

Curious, you have everyone you mentioned on the data chart, except Martin Armstrong.

#72 Ronaldo on 11.25.20 at 7:33 pm

RBC just a bit off 1 dollar from it’s all time high and up 37% from the March low. You’ve gotta like those banks.
Balanced Fund up 12.05% ytd. Something to say about not panicking and staying invested as is constantly being harped about on this blog.

#73 KG on 11.25.20 at 7:35 pm

It is interesting these days you are trashing so many known names and theories.

#74 Alphonse Kehaulic on 11.25.20 at 7:40 pm

28 days lockdown. Symbolism. Two 8s = 88 = double infinity. In other words: Endless, in perpetuity, no timeouts for your lockdowns. Put it to you this way: From now on there will never be a time of no lockdowns.

28 Days Later was a movie about a pandemic. Just a coincidence I’m sure.

UBI is also symbolic. You bee. Hive mind. Drones.

‘Christmas is cancelled, motherfletchers. Suck it up. And flatten that curve. Just 28 more days because lockdowns, masks and distancing have been working so well already and we’re almost there, hell, we’ve almost won this war. Double Promise this time!’

6uild 6ack 6etter boys and girls.

#75 truefacts on 11.25.20 at 7:40 pm

@#45 Piano_Man87…

I’m going to sound like a condescending jerk here, but it’s not my intent…

I think you worry a bit too much for a young guy. They have been predicting the end of the world for as long as people have existed. Garth nailed it the idea that “fear sells”. They predicted we would run out of oil, now the world is awash in the stuff. There would be total nuclear war during the Cold War – never happened. In the 1980s, it was predicted that Japan would take over the world, now they’re in decline. In fact in schools they used to teach that global cooling was a big problem and we were all going to be covered in a mountain of ice.

Mark Twain said it best, “I have been through some terrible things in my life, some of which actually happened.”

You have no control if the world is going to heat up – but ask yourself if the world keeps getting hotter because of human activity, why Vikings settled Greenland from the 1200s-1600s until they were cut off from Europe due to the “mini ice age”. How correct are the scientists? Science evolves and former “scientific facts” become the butt of jokes.

There’s is always something to worry about…but life is better if you choose not to.

#76 GreatestFool on 11.25.20 at 7:42 pm

#45 Piano_Man87

You’re not supposed to butt-chug the Kool-Aid

#77 Blessed_Canadian_Millenial on 11.25.20 at 7:42 pm

I use a simple 3-fund portfolio:
VXC – 50%
VCN – 25%
VAB – 25%

That’s it.

It has served me well over the last six years since I started investing.

#78 willworkforpickles on 11.25.20 at 7:45 pm

Quote from the comment section:
“As you can see, following any one of these guys would have cost you. Big.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Any one of those guys would have been correct over the last ten years at any given time if it hadn’t been for the “its different this time movement” with regard to RE and the markets.
It’s different this time culminating in QE/low rates prior to and then the pandemic borne CARES & CERB with deferral support along with lease and rental moratoriums for the pandemic affected unemployed.
In the old days prior to the great recession before governments went deep in debt like now devaluing the currency in doing so, recessions in the past cleared out the deadwood and reset the economy to a healthy standard giving the common man a future to strive for. The future bodes ill for many years to come as a result of government recklessness via reset through stagflation that’s coming.
Stagflation that’s coming when Fed stimulus reaches its limits and stock prices won’t continue to support the profits their underlying companies generate. When interest rates begin to rise taking the wind out of the sails of the RE market.
Financial markets and RE have been spurred on by Fed stimulus and do not currently reflect the real economy.
The real economy of late with its high unemployment is accelerating beyond the pandemic related loss of jobs from the lower demand as a result of it.
Massive government spending (separate from Fed stimulus) to support the unemployed is becoming inflationary as the reduction of the supply of goods are costing more and so reflects on the real and hurting economy.
The Fed is coming to a crossroads over stimulus spending and the divide its creating between the markets and the real economy. Under the circumstances of such, the conditions are prime for a reset via a long hard road through stagflation.

#79 Paul B on 11.25.20 at 7:49 pm

Wow! That was a pretty amazing blog post. Highest density of good investment advice I have ever seen in the fewest words. Thank you, Garth.

#80 Sydneysider on 11.25.20 at 7:49 pm

“BC Public Safety Minister @mikefarnworthbc on GlobalBC tonight with a message for anti-maskers: “Grow up, shut up and mask up.”

How different the tone is now that the BC election is over. The masks come off.

#81 Uncle Charlie on 11.25.20 at 7:52 pm

My TFSA index fund is 25% CAD bonds, 25% CAD equities, 25% US equities and 25 Int’l equities. I have very little money because I started late, so I wanted to be a bit more agressive. Is a 75/25 balance like this a smart choice at 55?

#82 Ronaldo on 11.25.20 at 7:59 pm

#2 Turner Nation

Today most every area in N.A. is getting their Emergency Alert System tested – your phone might have gone off. Why?
—————————————————————-
Funny you should mention that. My wife just told me a few minutes ago after returning downtown that she almost got into an accident as she was turning right onto the hiway when an alarm went off in the car and a voice came on advising of an emergency and the screen flashing and cell phone blaring away. Her first response was to pull over as this had never happened before and she did not know what was going on. I wonder if anyone else had this experience lately.

#83 jal on 11.25.20 at 8:01 pm

Greed and the printing press are working together to make some people’s savings grow more than inflation.

#84 Stratovarious on 11.25.20 at 8:11 pm

This week, the Wilshire Total Index Market Cap to GDP (US) ratio hit the highest level in history: >179%. As noted by Sven Henrich (yep, another one of those negative dudes), this is the “largest ever disconnect of markets from the actual economy.” But I am sure this is no reason for concern.

#85 Guelph Guru on 11.25.20 at 8:29 pm

Great advice Garth.

I’m currently adding Prefs. The 5 yr bond price has started to move up. A great point to add Prefs.
ZPR is my guy.
REITs are still attractive. Have been adding ZRE for some time now. Though not as attracitve as sub 20 though.
Small caps have run amock right now. A correction is due shortly me thinks.
For Canada have added quite a bit of ZEO from 23 to 30.
Have sold long term bonds and moved to PSB for now.

Happy investing.

#86 Honest Realtor on 11.25.20 at 8:34 pm

“Talking people out of investing for their future because of this or that macro concern will always be a long-term loser, even if there are moments along the way where it looks temporarily smart.”

Great quote!

And this is exactly why I disagree with the real estate doomsayers who always say this sector will only go down.

Anyone who piled their savings into smartly located real estate since 2000 has done wonderfully well in Canada.

And there is no sign, and no real threat, of this not continuing for the next 20 years.

#87 Rural Rick on 11.25.20 at 8:40 pm

Once again thanks for the great advice. Regarding the comments section there should be a surcharge for drivel. Some of these clowns write more column inches than you do. Who knew the blog dogs would mutate like this.

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.25.20 at 8:46 pm

@#82 Ronaldo
” I wonder if anyone else had this experience lately.”
++++
Yep.
Emegency Warning Message on my phone at 2pm in Vancouver today.

One never knows what a desperate grifter like Trump will do in the waning months of his doomed Presidency…..

Iran?
North Korea?
China?

What’s an escalating military skirmish between enemys……. to get the publics attention off the real story……..

Only Apocalypse2020…2021….. knows for sure.

#89 cramar on 11.25.20 at 8:55 pm

News I found interesting in the past day or so.

Yesterday, due to the peak in Tesla stock, Elon Musk briefly became the second richest man in the world. His net worth increased $100 Billion this year! Article said he makes 2 million times that of the average American household.

(https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/elon-musk-leapfrogs-over-bill-gates-become-second-richest-man-n1248791)

Same day, it was announced that likely 50 million Americans will be suffering food shortages, and 1 in 4 children now at risk of missing meals.

(https://nonprofitquarterly.org/major-expansions-in-food-insecurity-promise-a-hard-winter-for-children/)

Come January without eviction/rent/mortgage help, 5.8 million Americans say they are at risk of eviction or foreclosure.

(https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/millions-of-americans-expect-to-lose-their-homes-as-covid-rages-1.1526758)

Conclusion: The divide between rich and poor is accelerating.

———-

Two states with some of the worst per capita COVID rates are North & South Dakota. ND has half the population and twice the infection rate as Manitoba.

Dakotans eschew wearing masks.

“South Dakota’s governor Kristi Noem, meanwhile, has maintained that widely praised public health measures like distancing and mask mandates don’t work….”

(https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/north-dakota-covid-death-rate-cases-b1727143.html)

Meanwhile, Australia in the last 24 hours had 6 new cases and 95 active cases TOTAL for the WHOLE country! Why do they have a handle on it? Two reasons:

1) 6 cases, but 52,000 tests in last 24 hours! They take testing and contact tracing seriously.

2) When the case rate started to rise in the past, they locked down everything quickly. And the population took wearing masks seriously.

Conclusion: Lock everything down, and do a reset, and everyone wear masks. Short term pain for long-term gain. But only works if you have all the population on board. Hats off to Australians!

#90 Ustabe on 11.25.20 at 8:56 pm

#87 Rural Rick on 11.25.20 at 8:40 pm

Once again thanks for the great advice. Regarding the comments section there should be a surcharge for drivel. Some of these clowns write more column inches than you do. Who knew the blog dogs would mutate like this.

Most of them are out on the main floor of the casino, thinking they are in one of the private, high roller rooms.

What they don’t understand is all the fun is out on the main floor, the private rooms are pretty grim.

#91 Ustabe on 11.25.20 at 9:07 pm

with all this talk about KD…

Chop up three green onions, half a red pepper and sautee in a bit of oil drained from the two small cans of oil packed tuna you opened. Sprinkle in a pinch or two of oregano, a shake of crushed red pepper and some grinds of pepper.

Now add in that tuna, breaking it apart but not mashing it. Add one can of drained baby clams. Stir and toss in a couple of cloves of mashed garlic. Let sizzle for a bit.

Now dump in a jar of President’s Choice Three Cheese Alfredo Sauce. Put all that on a low simmer.

Boil up a couple of handfuls of small shell pasta (Orecchiette if your market has it) and drain. Fill pasta plate with shells, top with the Ears of Charlie Twofish Sauce you just made.

Eat like you are in a fancy restaurant, with just a bit more cost than KD but without the shame.

Although most here seem to have no shame.

#92 SoggyShorts on 11.25.20 at 9:19 pm

#69 Graeme on 11.25.20 at 7:21 pm
I agree with most… I like how your 40% is “safe” rather than just “bonds”. I don’t see how bonds in the traditional 60/40 is going to help when rates are this low?
**************************
HTB.TO is 7-10y US treasury bonds which is my “Safe” stuff.

Very nice inverse to S&P 500, which IMO is the most important factor in a portfolio split. Lower volatility is nice, but having something that you can buy low&sell high is how you capitalize on the real big swings instead of just crapping your pants.

If you rebalanced a ZSP:HTB portfolio back to original weightings at any time between March 01 And August 01 this year you’d be better off than sitting tight all year.

E.G.
♦80/20 that hasn’t been touched since January 1 is up 11.7%

♦80/20 that rebalanced March 23 is up 15.1% and be sitting at 84/16

♦80/20 set to rebalance when it hits either 85/15 or 75/25 would have rebalanced March 12 and then the other way on August 26. Up 13.5% and sitting at 81/19

#93 Ray Skunk on 11.25.20 at 9:20 pm

#28 – Ian

A couple of years ago when my first was born, I put together a spreadsheet with different scenarios and crunched this out.

Three scenarios:
1) Super-front-load to maximize compounding (your approach)

2) Moderate-front-load

3) Equal contributions throughout

I determined 2) was the best approach, you’d end up with a slightly lower final total, but it was a small sacrifice for flexibility with my overall portfolio and cashflow.

Bottom line:
$5k for each of the first 3 years, then $2500 a year thereafter until max limit reached.

#94 TRON on 11.25.20 at 9:24 pm

In sales when the competition is selling against you trying to show how you are wrong and they are right we know they Fear us. When you are making your point by saying the other guy is wrong and that’s why you are right it is a sign of weakness.

We are in unchartered waters where up is down and down is up. We’ve been here many times before but each time it looked different. We do know markets do not go up forever. There’s not enough stimulus to keep this pig fed and it’s soon to be slaughtered… likely in the Spring.

#95 Millennial 1%er on 11.25.20 at 9:39 pm

I love how simple a good diversified investment plan is. Find an ETF with a cool name. Buy it. Forget about it. Doom and gloom? Whatever man, Mr. Baby With Grimes came out with a new lithium powered turn tire.

Doesn’t hurt to have a little doom and gloom though. The crypto portion of my portfolio is killing it.

#96 Dr V on 11.25.20 at 10:09 pm

Anybody else notice a pattern with posts like Chris
Parley 16?

They seem to appear every couple of days?

They blog with their full proper name?

They state things very concisely, detailed, matter-of-
fact. A bit of a humble brag?

They only invest in the simplest things? GICs. savings bonds? Gold coins from the mint??

They live crazy cheap?

They all sound the same…..like they’re written by the same person……

#97 Lorne on 11.25.20 at 10:10 pm

#55 Nonplused on 11.25.20 at 6:19 pm
Turns out I was wrong and TPTB are a little smarter than I thought.

Schools in Alberta for grades 7-12 will close on Monday. Learning will transfer to online. (This was a mess last time they tried it, it takes a while to set up a good online curriculum. This puts the kids who went online all semester in the lead I think.) K-6 will, strangely, still be in school.

This makes sense to me. If you can’t have more than 10 people at a once in a lifetime event like your own funeral, how does it make sense to stuff 35 kids in a classroom every day? So the only part I am still not sure about is why they aren’t closing K-6. Those are the germiest of the germy kids.
…….
Only in effect for 3 weeks in December (till Dec. 18) and then they are adding 1 week to winter break and then ALL students are BACK IN CLASS on January 11…at least that is the plan right now.

#98 kc on 11.25.20 at 10:11 pm

80 Sydneysider on 11.25.20 at 7:49 pm

“BC Public Safety Minister @mikefarnworthbc on GlobalBC tonight with a message for anti-maskers: “Grow up, shut up and mask up.”
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Welcome to British Columunism …. take what we say or else…. Don’t forget to report your neighbour so we can fine everone to help pay these lost taxes….

cheers and battan down the hatches this is going to be a rough ride coming….

#99 mick McClean on 11.25.20 at 10:19 pm

Dogwhistle and others have listed some rather pricy etf’s which I’m sure perform very well and pay a dividend. Would it not be better to buy lower priced etfs such as ZWU at $12.45 or ZMI for $16 for example, you would get a lot more shares, hence more monthly dividends and look forward to growth also?

#100 Garth's Son Drake on 11.25.20 at 10:23 pm

Garth, profit taking time just in time for Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Are you able to do a poll on what the order count year to date is for peoples Amazon account?

I am hitting over 400 on the year.

#101 IHCTD9 on 11.25.20 at 10:24 pm

Today’s blog is bang on point. This past July, I calculated where we’d need to be in July 2021 to have acheived a 5% gain inclusive of our regular monthly deposits, and our occasional lump sum deposits. This past July was not long ago, and I still remember thinking that there was only a slim chance of us hitting the number the calculator spit out. CV-19 was definitely looking like it was going to kick our @sses in 2020.

Things were still prettiy gloomy in July, and the portfolio performance was not much better than sideways. The US election loomed, and no vaccine as of yet. September back to school and flu season was soon to be on our doorstep. There wasn’t much of a silver lining to behold. Oh well, 2019 was great, here’s looking to a better 2021.

Who would have guessed all this could be undone in one month? Biden, 3 vaccines, JY in da house, optimism flickering again, horns up. I hope a lot of young peeps are reading this blog. The excellent advice here by Mr T, combined with the TFSA could produce scores of 7 figure portfolios with not a dime in tax payable – if the ball gets rolling soon enough.

#102 Jo on 11.25.20 at 10:25 pm

Awesome recipe Ustabe, will try it tomorrow. Thank you.

#103 what the on 11.25.20 at 10:42 pm

#91 Ustabe

That’s a $25 dish… hardly comparable to KD.
Two cans of tuna AND a can of baby clams? Have you been to Safeway lately? I wish I could afford to eat as well as you

#104 Tyberius on 11.25.20 at 10:42 pm

I take my investment advice from [email protected] You know she got there on merit – and not her ‘other talents’!

On gold?
Well, we know it’s going to $5,000+ this decade, but it’s so volatile an asset it can impoverish participants (newbies).
Perma-bulls AND perma-bears are dangerous because it’s never time to buy (or sell)! Or always time to buy (or sell)!

Gotta have better guidance than that in order to survive and perhaps prosper. Right now I’m >50% cash and been selling hand over fist.
Can never have too much cash in a panic Momma told me (and we say that in March!)

Can’t see the economies recovering that fast as the pandemic will have lasting effects. Too many out of work and in increasing debt. Something gotta give…

#105 William R Drury on 11.25.20 at 10:45 pm

BANNED

#106 SWL on 11.25.20 at 10:48 pm

#74 Alphonse Kehaulic – Sadly you’ve pretty much nailed it, but sadly you’ll likely become the butt of some jokes here to make people feel better about the situation, or simply dismissed as crazy talk

The further society drifts from the truth the more it will hate those who speak it

Pretty much everything that is and has been happening is hidden in plane site. I understand why people don’t want to notice or heed any warning. It’s a lot to take in

It saddens me when people like Piano Man 87 show genuine concern for their future then someone like 75 truefacts says, don’t worry kick your feet up and relax science is usually wrong blah, blah, blah. Or how about the 76 GreatestFool making a funny.

See above quote

Anyways, what we have coming most of us don’t deserve, but humanity has proven time and time again that our biggest threat is likely each other. At least I know I have made my peace and know where I stand with it all

Cue MF, the self appointed Ministry of Truth to set the record straight

#107 S.Bby on 11.25.20 at 10:48 pm

Trump is not the kind of guy to go away quietly. We have not heard the last of Trump.

#108 PastThePeak on 11.25.20 at 10:58 pm

#15 truefacts on 11.25.20 at 3:29 pm
Simple financial plan (for established people with some assets)…

Family Home fully paid off
NO DEBT (no car leases, mortages, locs,CC debt, etc)
Enough cash in the bank to live for a year based on current spending

Then:

5% of portfolio in fixed-reset preferreds
5% of portfolio in high quality reits
Remainder of porfolio in 25-30 high quality multi-national stocks (50% Canadian with foreign operations and 50% US blue chip mega caps with global operations) with no weighting over 5% of portfolio.

Dividends roll in regularly and increase over time – sit and do nothing else. The US giants have operations spanning the globe, so you have exposure to virtually all global markets.

* Add a high tech etf (perhaps 5-7% of portfolio) to gain exposure there as it’s hard to choose the winners and losers, but it’s an area that will be rewarding if you buy in cheap enough (ie. not now)

* Stock up on toilet paper before there is another run and shortages happen!
++++++++++++++++++++++++

You sound almost like me. Only difference is I have some physical PMs & PM mining stocks, and some of my multi-nationals are global (not only US). Looking to add tech and focused EM ETFs.

#109 baloney Sandwitch on 11.25.20 at 11:15 pm

Great chart of the performance of the doomsday prophets. They sound so sexy and wise in the midst of bear market panic but melt like Dracula in the sunlight of recovery.
Another thing to add is the power of proper tax planning. I have found many great nuggets in your blog over the years. Don’t fight the Fed (or BoC) is also very true.

#110 Karlhungus on 11.25.20 at 11:18 pm

100% equities for me. Yee haw. Maximum growth

#111 IHCTD9 on 11.25.20 at 11:18 pm

#91 Ustabe on 11.25.20 at 9:07 pm

with all this talk about KD…

Chop up three green onions…
——-

Ah, it’s been a while since we’ve seen a tasty recipe from Mr. Ustabe! Reading that makes my mouth water :).

I’ll offer an easy (but tasty) one in exchange:

Get yourself a loaf of Brioche bread, toast to your preference. While toasting, prepare 1 slice of Montreal smoked meat, 2 slices of honey ham, and 5 strips of Havarti cheese off regular block. When the toast pops, apply a liberal amount of real unsalted butter to both slices, and add the said meats and cheese. Slice corner to corner. Have glass of your favourite mixed spirit on hand to wash down!

#112 SpicNspan on 11.26.20 at 12:06 am

#62 Paul Summerville on 11.25.20 at 6:44 pm

Garth, To be fair to Rosenberg he did go long gold in the summer of 2019. Paul
________________________

Put another way… Even a blind man can hit a bullseye occasionally!
What is your point?

#113 Shaking Crombie on 11.26.20 at 12:14 am

Heads up on ” the deficit “. Trial balloons are in the air, getting you ready for “the big one”. Some if the dogs who bet that Trudeau would bust a world record closer to a trillion might be surprisingly close. Welfare dependant money will flood the nation, but who will pay? Is this why Trudeau wants a Great Reset! Is the real plan to bury the crazy spending with vote buying?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-deficit-on-the-rise-as-liberals-plan-sector-specific-support-in-fall/

#114 Newbie Question on 11.26.20 at 12:16 am

What is high yield cash? How is that different just cash? How do you invest in it? Sorry for the newbie question. Thanks in advance for someone from the internet who can field this one.

#115 Karlhungus on 11.26.20 at 12:17 am

Wow reading some of the comments here it’s like people have no idea how the stock market works. “It’s high now , why would you buy?” You people realize the market is at an all-time high most of the time right ?

#116 SoggyShorts on 11.26.20 at 12:18 am

#94 TRON on 11.25.20 at 9:24 pm
In sales when the competition is selling against you trying to show how you are wrong and they are right we know they Fear us. When you are making your point by saying the other guy is wrong and that’s why you are right it is a sign of weakness.
************************
Am I the only one who thought that they were having a stroke trying to read this?

#117 Buy? Curious? on 11.26.20 at 12:33 am

Garth, don’t roll your eyes. I promise this will be the last time I comment on this but let me say this, I’m saddened at the response I got from about SM. We all know his views, banned from everywhere for his incoherent rants (Bless you, Garth for giving literary shelter to short, bald, pigmentally challenged, on the tail-end of an arrogant age cohort of men), but people talking about him like he was this gentle soul? C’mon. I guess the reason why I’m sad is that I have to realise that there are some people who will follow anyone. I guess if you live in a lower caste (yes Canadians, you have a class system like everywhere else, deal with it), you’ll look up to anyone, even if it’s on this metaphorical soap box of a blog. (No disrespect, Mr Turner)

Anyone upset with me, convert your lobster traps into tiki torches and take a walk.

#118 Longterm on 11.26.20 at 1:14 am

#45 Piano_Man87 on 11.25.20 at 5:41 pm

You hit the nail on the head.

I’ve been thinking about this for years. So far my thinking and actions go something like this. We are trapped in the destructive growth system driving us to the ecological and climate catastrophe edge – the science is overwhelmingly clear on this – and we haven’t and aren’t likely going to take the drastic steps necessary to stop from going over a cliff. So climate chaos, ecological collapse and with it economic and social collapse is pretty much baked in at this point.

So for now use the system that we are trapped in while it functions and invest and build up financial capital until the system starts to crack – hard to judge the exit point though. Soon – i.e. now – buy land in a non-brittle climatic zone and start planting perennial food producers [nut trees etc – see the book Restoration Agriculture by Mark Sheperd] and setting up other local food systems. Build / set-up resilient water systems, low energy, super insulted passive housing. Learn skills and collect tools and build an analogue library of books around food, farming, land management and community building etc. Lastly, get stuck into building a resilient community, with support systems, local economy [because collapse is where we are headed], decentralized democratic and cooperative local organizations etc. It’s all about building food security and resilience, low input shelter and living, and strong, democratic community with diverse skills and and ethos of mutual aid. It might not be enough but it’s the best combination I can think of. Google Deep Adaptation for some more ideas resources and people to network with.

#119 Morrey on 11.26.20 at 1:14 am

#91
“Now dump in a jar of President’s Choice Three Cheese Alfredo Sauce. ”

Fuggedaboutit! Never mix cheese with fish/seafood you mangiacake.

Use some white wine as the sauce simmers, and top with some parsley when serving.

#120 Nonplused on 11.26.20 at 1:26 am

#70 Drill Baby Drill on 11.25.20 at 7:25 pm
Hey all of you blog mutts that had an odd notion that Canada is a first world country should rethink that notion. Canada cannot produce a covid vaccine but must rely on true first world countries for this supply. We are mostly dependent on the USA for fresh food most of the year now we have to be dependent on the Europeans and the USA for covid relief.

———————————-

It does not make sense for Canada, population somewhere around 36 million, to try and be good at everything. If all of Canada was a US state it would only be medium size. Do all US states have the ability to produce vaccines? No they don’t. Not on mass anyway.

We don’t produce computer chips or fighter planes either. Nobody complains about that. Our last attempt at fighter planes almost got us the Avro Arrow but unit costs were outrageous and we still depended on US built missiles and radar.

Blackberry was the last hurrah for Canadian tech and they didn’t build anything here or design the chips they used. We don’t even build our own windmills or solar panels. We assemble them after they arrive from Germany or China.

I am no fan of Trudeau, but this is one thing I am not going to bust him on.

#121 Nonplused on 11.26.20 at 1:42 am

#89 cramar on 11.25.20 at 8:55 pm
News I found interesting in the past day or so.

Yesterday, due to the peak in Tesla stock, Elon Musk briefly became the second richest man in the world. His net worth increased $100 Billion this year! Article said he makes 2 million times that of the average American household.

—————————-

Stocks are not money. And don’t worry they will get him when he sells or dies. Patience my friend, patience.

It would be a really good idea if we stopped calculating net worth based on what the Robin Hood traders last bid and instead did a net present value based on oh I don’t know, something around 6% return. It would be seen that Musk is actually negative by billions of dollars. The fools are thinking that he is actually going to make money sending people to die on Mars. Or that electric cars might actually work out, and if they do he’ll beat GM and BMW. That the Tesla pickup will be better than what the coming electric F150 looks like and costs.

Tesla is a bubble. You can’t tax bubbles, because the money immediately goes back to the ether from which it came from.

Think Bre-X. It isn’t money until you sell it.

#122 BillyBob on 11.26.20 at 4:31 am

#43 Freedom First on 11.25.20 at 5:39 pm
#4 Flop

Flop, I still read all of your posts. Though I may not always agree with everything you write, I really do enjoy, respect, and understand where you are coming from and the way you handle yourself. You are a class act. Sincerely.

Freedom First

================================

Couldn’t say it any better than that FF.

A firm second on what he said, Flop.

#123 BillyBob on 11.26.20 at 4:45 am

#21 Soldier on 11.25.20 at 3:51 pm
Hey Garth, another great post, the word crypto stuck out to me. You see no merrit in bitcoin eh? As a Canadian Forces pilot I love it when I see bitcoin ATMs around the world, and can withdrawl some local currency, my debit and credit cards rip me off so much when i travel. And with the 21 million limit, and all the money printing, still nothing eh? You can’t support it? It’s going crazy, I respect Michael Saylor almost as much as I respect you. And he just got in! Can we have a bitcoin post? lol

=================================

There are plenty of great fintech products that link to one’s traditional accounts (or replace them entirely) and give spot currency rates with no fees (Revolut) or extremely minimal ones (Transferwise) to name only a couple. No need to get “ripped off”. Admittedly Canada’s protectionist banking cabal has limited the options somewhat.

Still no reason to hassle with bitcoin for foreign currency exchange at the consumer level with cheaper, easier, more available, and less volatile options.

#124 Lord jim on 11.26.20 at 5:08 am

I just follow Jim Cramer. Sure he’s not as loud or as exciting as Garth but he’s doubled my money… and he’s free.

#125 Damifino on 11.26.20 at 8:14 am

#118 Longterm

We are trapped in the destructive growth system driving us to the ecological and climate catastrophe edge – the science is overwhelmingly clear on this – and we haven’t and aren’t likely going to take the drastic steps necessary to stop from going over a cliff. So climate chaos, ecological collapse and with it economic and social collapse is pretty much baked in at this point.
————————————-

Complete poppycock!

Humankind is flourishing beyond anything a 19th century mind could have conceived. Climate related deaths are drastically down thanks largely to our mastery of hydrocarbon energy.

It’s allowed us to feed and protect masses of people from the random tragedies mother nature would visit upon us as she goes about her utterly indifferent ways.

The state of medicine, education, transportation, food production, art and most other purely human endeavors is now at previously undreamed of levels of utility and sophistication.

Science is not ‘overwhelming clear’ on anything. That is its normal state. It stands each day on the doorstep of infinite human potential and always will. So far, it’s what has raised us above subjugation to heartless physics.

It will continue to do if can we remain free from vacuous, self-serving political leanings that would steer us back toward unenlightened times.

#126 FriedEggs on 11.26.20 at 8:37 am

Powell released the Kraken last night.

Lets see what happens.

#127 Tua the Redeemer on 11.26.20 at 8:45 am

Let’s not give Josh Brown too much credit. While he invests client assets in a portfolio of ETFs he still goes on television to talk individual stocks. Given that he’s spent no time actually researching, it’s financial malpractice.

He’s just another slimey broker trying to drum up business.

If he publicly analyzes stocks but does not purchase them for clients, how does this bolster his business? Why does it make him slimy that he’s on TV giving you free information? Did you expect unbiased equity recommendations from Jesus? – Garth

#128 Gravy Train on 11.26.20 at 9:44 am

#124 Damifino on 11.26.20 at 8:14 am
“[…] So far, [science is] what has raised us above subjugation to heartless physics.[…]” Do you mean such heartless physics as the photoelectric effect which is exploited by solar panels when converting light into electricity? :P

#129 Dharma Bum on 11.26.20 at 9:53 am

Garth,
Have you considered the idea of having your own podcast?
You would be a natural for one.
I believe that you would excel in the long form conversation format.
Right now, the only really good long form extended conversation form of podcast that covers myriad topics in depth with the opportunity for unbiased debate and discourse is The Joe Rogan Experience. It has evolved over time to become the only truth in media. No opinions are cast in stone. It’s fluid, and opinions change as new evidence is revealed. No partisan political agenda. (The only constant is that obesity is bad for you.)

Your podcast could explore a wide variety of topics, including, but over and above financial issues, and have great guests on, including your trophy wife Porsche driving suspender wearing super-handsome associates, politicians, bankers, dog owners, dog breeders, cat lovers, economists, truckers, wing-nuts, early retirement people, Adele, Drake, [email protected], paranoid schizophrenics, doomers, pumpers, dippers, alt-rights, lefty crazies, real estate champions, Brad Lamb, mortgage specialists, Dorothy, Canadian comics, and an endless array of interesting folks that both share and dispute your views to provide hours of healthy and fascinating illuminating discourse.
I can be your first guest.
Between reading your blog, listening to or watching your podcast and listening to or watching Joe Rogan’s podcast, my days would be jammed from 9-5. Add in a work out, shower, and an all meat carnivore diet dinner, and Bob’s yer uncle.
Go for it Garth. You are a born podcast star!
Canada needs you!

#130 truefacts on 11.26.20 at 9:54 am

#106 SWL

I’m trying to make 2 points, but perhaps I didn’t do a very good job, so let me try to explain…

1. Science is often wrong – not always, but often. Doomers have predicted bad things for eons. For example, Paul Ehrlich and the Club of Rome predicted worldwide starvation. It made sense, there was a finite amount of land and populations were growing very quickly. They failed to account for the “green revolution” and how yeilds per acre of production would explode. The overpopulation problem is also correcting as the two population giants (China and India) have sub-replacement and about replacement fertility rates – and this has really played out across the globe with the exceptions of Sub-Sahara Africa and a few outliers (Pakistan, Afghanistan,…).

2. People have wrung their hands and stressed over global problems for eons, but all that hand-wringing has accomplished zero. So Piano-Man was worried and was thinking of altering his investment strategy because of that worry – similar to Ellen in Garth’s article. Does that course of action really make sense????

#131 Derek Foster on 11.26.20 at 10:03 am

@ #108 Past the Peak…

I wouldn’t be opposed to international stocks, but have found the US to be sufficient hunting grounds. I mean if Buffett can stay mostly in the US, and he’s dealing with a bit more $$$ than me, I should be okay…With international, I like UK stocks as there is no witholding taxes.

With PMs – hate mining stocks as long-term holds – bad economics. I bought a bit of the streamers (Wheaton, Franco), but the price moved up before I could build a meaningful position, so I sold out (I know, not sensical, but becomes and accounting nightmare with piddley positions)…

#132 truefacts on 11.26.20 at 10:04 am

@ #108 Past the Peak…

I wouldn’t be opposed to international stocks, but have found the US to be sufficient hunting grounds. I mean if Buffett can stay mostly in the US, and he’s dealing with a bit more $$$ than me, I should be okay…With international, I like UK stocks as there is no witholding taxes.

With PMs – hate mining stocks as long-term holds – bad economics. I bought a bit of the streamers (Wheaton, Franco), but the price moved up before I could build a meaningful position, so I sold out (I know, not sensical, but becomes and accounting nightmare with piddley positions)…

#133 David Davidoff on 11.26.20 at 10:21 am

Great Reset!! That’s nothing compared to the confiscation of private property being enforced by the City of Vancouver

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/dan-fumano-vancouver-triples-vacancy-tax-even-as-many-condos-flooded-rental-market

I’ve been calling out to no avail for several years on this very blog that confiscation would become a weapon of socialists, communists and liberals. I’ve been deleted and banned, but so what ? I’ve been right all along.

And what else have I warned against? Kids I’m no Nostradamus but I firmly believe that the Trudeau Long Form Census is designed to count the number of bedrooms and available sq ft in your existing home To force you to take in squatters.

They will first move strangers into your “spare rooms”, referring to second bedrooms as “ decadent space”. Next you living room will be partitioned for even more of Trudeaus endless “Great Reset”.

It’s already happening, but you sit there like stunned goats disbelieving that a dictatorship has formed and is stripping you of your freedom.

Your home is low hanging fruit. No one is standing in the way. Next will be your investment funds, but there’ll be a fight of a decade or longer because it’s a battle between the Globalist Lackeys and the institutions who stand to lose it all in the end.

Trudeau said “ You’ll own nothing”. That’s exactly where this is going.

#134 Tua the Redeemer on 11.26.20 at 10:22 am

126 Tua the Redeemer on 11.26.20 at 8:45 am
Let’s not give Josh Brown too much credit. While he invests client assets in a portfolio of ETFs he still goes on television to talk individual stocks. Given that he’s spent no time actually researching, it’s financial malpractice.

He’s just another slimey broker trying to drum up business.

If he publicly analyzes stocks but does not purchase them for clients, how does this bolster his business? Why does it make him slimy that he’s on TV giving you free information? Did you expect unbiased equity recommendations from Jesus? – Garth
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Being on TV drives business to his firm.

It makes him slimey because he has so little faith in his analysis he won’t risk his clients money on them. The fact that he won’t risk actual money, means he knows the recommendations aren’t particularly solid. So why give unresearched opinions on tv at all? To put it another way, if BNN asked you to come on to discuss individual stocks, I expect you’d decline and tell them that that analysis is not what you do. That’s honorable.

And the screen name is a Tua Tagaviola/Miami Dolphins joke.

#135 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.26.20 at 10:58 am

#125 FriedEggs on 11.26.20 at 8:37 am
Powell released the Kraken last night.

Lets see what happens.
———————-
Kraken is a potent black rum.
She’s gonna wake up with a huge hangover.

#136 Tommy on 11.26.20 at 11:03 am

@David Davidoff #132

When I argued that foreign ownership of Vancouver real estate should be banned, it was quite common for homeowners to cite private property rights as the reason that policy would be wrong. You can’t restrict to whom I can sell my home because that’s a violation of my private property rights, they would say.

Now we have homeowners once again crying about private property rights, but this time it’s in opposition to a vacancy tax. Homeowners could have supported restricting foreign ownership of Vancouver real estate but they chose not to. So here we are.

David Davidoff is right that government confiscation of real estate is in the cards. Because Vancouver will remain Canadian one way or another. We need to take our city and country back from the globalists.

I fully support government confiscation of privately owned real estate, when said real estate has owners overseas that allow properties to sit vacant and underused. Vancouver is supposed to be a functioning city. Not a safety deposit box for international real estate barrens.

#137 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.26.20 at 11:26 am

#132,135
The empty home tax is doing what it is supposed to do
https://www.richmond-news.com/vacancy-taxes-put-more-rental-condos-in-metro-vancouver-market-cmhc-study-1.24245612

#138 Tyberius on 11.26.20 at 11:55 am

Well, I did a little googling on Net worth of these people and this is what I found:

David Levy – $95.6 Million
Carl Icahn – $18 Billion
George Soros- $8.3 Billion (recently donated $32 Billion to Open Society Foundations)
John Hussman- $1 M
Peter Schiff- $80 Million
Marc Faber- $1.7 Million
Jeff Gundlach- $2.2 Billion
Nouriel Roubini- $500K

I don’t know, but it seems to me that most of these individuals have done well for themselves!
And I mean, really, really well!!

How can anyone knock them (all except Nouriel Roubini)?

Just don’t take their advice. – Garth

#139 jal on 11.26.20 at 12:00 pm

” …. real estate has owners overseas that allow properties to sit vacant and underused.”

Not just in Vancouver.
Everywhere.
There are only a few elites and enablers that have accumulated sufficient wealth to be owners of multiple properties and to pay maintenance, and municipal taxes etc.
When have municipalities refused to take money and then did not have to supply any services

#140 espressobob on 11.26.20 at 2:54 pm

Ellen is prey to a predator. It’s not safe being a DIY investor.

Funny though, since she’s not alone.

Experience trains hard. Buy and hold along with contrarians know this mindset…

#141 broader mind on 11.27.20 at 11:09 am

Tiff,tiff,tiff. To paraphrase Mr. Mak – I am owned by the many real estate boards. Let me be clear I want lower rates for a long time. Every homeowner can be a billionaire at the expense of all savers. Debt snorflers rewarded. Turn your home into a bank machine and get spending. On the train or left behind. BOC not well.

#142 DON on 11.27.20 at 11:52 am

Uk deficit $379 Billion pounds.

‘we can’t sustain this spending’ Sunak

The UK is cutting foreign aid by two percent’ citing the worst recession of 300 years as justification to focus that money on the domestic economy.

#143 Bryan on 11.27.20 at 11:53 am

Hey Garth,

Would appreciate some words of wisdom on pre-approvals which you have been recommending lately along with brokers, vs credit unions vs banks. So far when I look into pre approvals with brokers, they don’t want to give one and keep telling me checking my credit score too often will work against me. Would greatly appreciate some info on how to handle this.

#144 Prince Polo on 11.27.20 at 12:04 pm

The Dow/S&P account for about 8% of a balanced and diversified portfolio. Don’t let the tail wag the dog. Besides, the US economy (and markets) are expected to see very strong growth in the next couple of years of post-virus recovery. Why would this be a time of extra caution? – Garth

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That would imply more than just a slight tilt to small caps. Surely, the remaining 12% US equity holdings contain more S&P/DJIA that is not counted in the 8% figure? I hope I’m not eating crow for dinner tonight……