Lockdowns

RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

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During the spring when Covid rates peaked I was concerned for another wave in the fall as economies were reopening leading to increased human interaction and transmission of the virus and the colder fall/winter months would usher in the always challenging flu season. This is certainly paying out with daily new Covid cases surging to over 150k in the US and roughly 5K in Canada.

While I was correct about a second wave, I was off the mark on the impact rising Covid rates would have on reopening measures. I believed that Canada and other global economies would basically try to power through the increase in Covid rates given: 1) the medical field is much better equipped to deal with the virus with a better understanding of Covid-19 and with new treatments (e.g., using steroids for people with severe cases); and 2) the economic toll of lockdowns is just too devastating on local economies.

Well, this view is being greatly challenged as governments around the world are starting to implement different lockdown measures. For example, the Ontario government just announced that it was locking down most businesses in the Toronto and Peel region, New York is closing down schools, the UK is under full lockdown for 30 days and much of Europe is re-instating different lockdown measures.

So the question is, will these lockdowns lead to another major economic downturn similar to what we saw in the second quarter and will this derail our thesis for a return to global growth in 2021 and the end of this terrible global recession?

Daily New Confirmed Covid-19 Cases (7-day rolling average)

Source: European CDC

In the near-term we are likely to see a hit to the global economy with economic activity slowing over the next few months as a result of the lockdowns. For example, job growth, manufacturing activity and retail sales could slow, which could lead to some short-term volatility in the markets. However, if this were to occur we would view this as a buying opportunity as we don’t believe these lockdowns will derail the economic recovery resulting in a ‘double-dip’ recession. Here’s why.

First, in March and April it was estimated that three billion people were locked away in their homes as the pandemic exploded. No one knew how bad it would get or the impact it would have on our hospitals so governments just shut everything down by implementing extremely strict measures. With this virus and pandemic now being nearly a year old we know a lot more now and for better or worse we’re adjusting to this new reality of living with a pandemic. So I believe economic activity might slow as a result of these lockdowns, but it’s unlikely to be as bad as what we saw in the second quarter where the US economy contracted by an incredible 32% Q/Q annualized. This is echoed by JP Morgan economists who just lowered their GDP growth expectations for Q1/21.

Second, any lockdowns measures that are implemented will be temporarily until government officials see an improvement in the data. So we’re probably looking at a few months rather than a prolonged and uncertain lockdown.

Third, and critically, vaccines are coming and will start to be rolled out in the coming months. So if we can just get through this challenging winter then come the spring we should be in much better shape.

This week we got incredible news that Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine is 95% effective, better than Pfizer’s initial projection of 90% for their vaccine (they updated their projection to 95% effectiveness this week upon completion of the phase 3 trial).

Specifically, Moderna’s phase 3 trial included 30,000 participants and an independent board examined the first 95 participants who got sick and ninety of them had received the placebo and only 5 were given the vaccine, which is how they derive the 94.5% effectiveness. Of the 95 who got sick, 11 experienced a severe case of the virus, none of which were vaccinated. Therefore the 5 vaccinated people who got sick only experienced mild symptoms. The read through of this is that the vaccine doesn’t just block the virus in most cases but also shields people who get sick from the worst outcome.

Similar to Pfizer’s vaccine, Moderna’s is an RNA vaccine so this now shows that RNA technology works well with these coronaviruses. Like Pfizer, Moderna will likely apply for emergency approval by the FDA within a few weeks and then they will start distributing in late Dec/Jan. First doses will go to people on the front lines (doctors, nurses, teachers etc.) and the elderly and we’re probably looking at Q2 of next year of a broader rollout of the vaccine.

The other big positives for Moderna’s vaccine are: 1) the vaccine can be stored in a freezer at -20 degrees versus Pfizer’s vaccine at -70 degrees; and 2) the vaccine can be stored in a refrigerator for 30 days compared to Pfizer’s at just five days. So this will help a lot in the distribution of the vaccine.

Overall, I see these recent vaccine announcements as a turning point in this historic pandemic and we’re getting much closer to being vaccinated and returning to normal, which I believe could come in the second half of 2021.

Finally, if I’m wrong about the economic impact of these lockdowns and wave two turns out to be far worse than I currently anticipate, we have the prospect of a new US president come January, which I believe will be the catalyst for another US stimulus package in the coming months.

How big of a stimulus package will depend on who wins the Georgia run-off Senate elections and therefore who has majority in the senate come January. If the Democrats pull out a win in the run-off elections then expect an even larger package given they will control all chambers of congress. January could prove to be an important month for US politics and the direction of the US economy in 2021.

I tend to be a ‘glass half full’ kind of guy and while I’m quite concerned about the increase in Covid cases and escalating lockdown measures, I remain steadfast in my belief that the global economy will emerge from this terrible global recession in 2021 and that the global equity markets will continue to climb a wall or worry.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.
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Moderator's Note

This blog is not a forum for anti-vaccine comments, nor will it host a debate on public health initiatives such as mask-wearing.  All submissions on these topics will be deleted.

113 comments ↓

#1 Keith in Rio on 11.21.20 at 1:15 pm

There are two distinct differences in what is being talked about here.

Main street economic recovery, and stock market performance, are TWO DISTINCT AND DIFFERENT things, one of which is utterly and totally divorced from reality.

Main street economic recovery will not occur in 2021 if the Democrats control both US houses. Stock market performance will be continued however, as the elites need to continue to be fed at the trough of entitlement. That is what the “deep state” is all about.

There is a move on worldwide from the communists again to try and control the citizenry using the pandemic as the ruse, a medical trojan horse so to speak. The virus is real, but the messages attached to it about implementing a “great reset” is not.

Main street needs to be crushed in order for them to be successful. The elites don’t care about us.

#2 Flop... on 11.21.20 at 1:19 pm

Rhino, Melbourne just come out of a fairly harsh lockdown, and I glanced a report that they don’t think they are going to let workers back into the downtown towers until 2023.

What do you see happening in Toronto…

M46BC

#3 Steerage on 11.21.20 at 1:19 pm

That was way too positive Ryan.. how dare you! :)

#4 Russ on 11.21.20 at 1:22 pm

From yesterday:
Flop… on 11.20.20 at 7:40 pm

Am currently taking 800IU of Vitamin D a day.
Also 60mg of Vitamin C, daily, is this enough to keep me safe from this thing that has plagued modern society?

Will it keep me safe from Real Estate Pumpers…

M46BC
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Hey Flop,

I see the comments were a little too distracted on Friday to address your question in a serious manner.

The wife & I have daily dose of supplements as:
Vitamin D3 – 3000 iu winter & 1500 iu summer
Vitamin C – 3000 mg
Zinc Glucomate – 50 mg twice (100 total) ~15 mg elemental Zc

In the portfolio the advisor has preferred shares @ 7% and I am at 17% preferred ETFs in the hobby account. The hobby account is 1/10 of the managed account so preferred weighted value is near 10%

I know you didn’t ask about prefs , just threw it in for discussion.

And you need to read up a bit on Zinc to understand all the supplemental offerings and relative elemental Zinc value (so you don’t go overboard on it. Not a problem with Vitamin C, if you don’t use it then you simply have expensive urine. :)

Cheers, Russ

#5 zoey on 11.21.20 at 1:22 pm

I hope your right !

#6 SomeDude on 11.21.20 at 1:22 pm

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#7 KNOW IT ALL on 11.21.20 at 1:30 pm

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#8 yvr_lurker on 11.21.20 at 1:50 pm

Very good post today and I think that this will be how it all plays out until the spring. Good objective description of the Moderna vaccine candidate, which I have been following intently, originating from Sarah Gilbert’s Oxford lab. For those who are skeptical, just take a few minutes and read the following (which summarizes how they were able to get this done much faster than one might have expected):

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-latest-results-covid-19-sarah-gilbert-interview-trial-a9695161.html

#9 Vit on 11.21.20 at 2:03 pm

Look at COT charts (Commitments Of Traders) , commercial are selling while other speculators are buying
. So producers dont see any higher prices and who knows the market better ..

#10 dogwhistle on 11.21.20 at 2:10 pm

December is going to be pretty bad for ‘main street’ retail
I’d love to see the spike in online purchases yesterday evening, I know I completed my Xmas shopping after dinner.

After that?

Spring will come, by summer there will be a lot of pent up demand and people will want to travel. Will it be USA or elsewhere, depends on how things go for them. I have many friends and colleagues down there and they are all looking forward to a return to normal.

Adapt or die. Back in 2011 I had to retrain, as an adult, not so easy. Many people will have had to adapt to change, get used to online tools etc. That’s a good thing.

I told friends in Europe that online grocery delivery only arrived in Canada a few weeks ago. They couldn’t believe it, it has existed there for 15 years.

So a lot of potential growth in Canada, yes you will need to learn competition (banks I’m looking at you) push more into high tech (shopify and many other brilliant AI companies doing great work)

The days of petrol are numbered (like it or not) except for certain chemicals and aviation fuel, although there is some interesting research in the pipeline.

Keep the spirits up, if you’re stuck at home make the ost of some online resources to learn new things, plenty of good mooc’s.

Don’t waste time on hating, learning useful stuff is better.

And please leave some booze (within reason) for your fellow Ontarian.

Peace

#11 TurnerNation on 11.21.20 at 2:13 pm

Linking some things – but hey we shut down the city for this. (The New System in March deemed us unacceptable as persons, humans, unless we submit to the new Global CV protocols.)

-Government raring to take over old folks homes.
(I have a parent nearing that stage).

The National Post reports in its Friday edition that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and union officials are calling on the federal government to put a stop to its role in for-profit long-term care homes, where deadly COVID-19 outbreaks are worsening. A Canadian Press dispatch to the Post says that Mr. Singh and two unions say the government must transform Revera from a for-profit corporation into a publicly managed entity.
…”We are losing people we care for because profits are taking priority over people,” Mr. Singh said Thursday at an emotional rally on Parliament Hill alongside families of nursing-home residents who died this year. He called for-profit residences the site of “the worst conditions.” A union leader called treatment of residents in private seniors’ homes a “national crisis.” © 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

— People 60 and older make up 96% of COVID-19 deaths in Ontario.
https://www.cambridgetimes.ca/news-story/10272220-people-60-and-older-make-up-96-of-covid-19-deaths-in-ontario-here-s-why-one-advocate-calls-it-ageism-in-action-/

— Zerohedge an emotional source but anyone can look up the Google Trends mentioned. In March I said this is WW3 and it is a war for our minds.

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/panic-attack-and-night-terror-searches-erupt-across-us-amid-pandemic
States and cities are reimposing strict social distancing measures, along with the increasing threat of lockdowns early next year if a Biden presidency is seen.

The virus pandemic and strict social distancing rules have already fueled a mental health crisis among Americans.

#12 RyYYZ on 11.21.20 at 2:16 pm

“This blog is not a forum for anti-vaccine comments, nor will it host a debate on public health initiatives such as mask-wearing. All submissions on these topics will be deleted.”
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Cool with me.

#13 Felix on 11.21.20 at 2:22 pm

Very instructive photo in today’s post, Ryan. Well done.

Locking your dogawful mutts outside for the coming winter will protect you from the horrendous germs they carry, and allow evolution to take its course in an efficient manner.

And, bonus, if dog owners instead enter lockdown with a cat inside their premises their own IQs will increase by 20-30% in a matter of months. This smartening will help protect their families against future risks.

#14 Faron on 11.21.20 at 2:35 pm

I’m pretty hopeful about the economy overall but it will be hard to look past what is about to unfold in the US. Deaths there in the next couple of weeks are likely to be pretty horrific.

But, once that wave is passed and a steadier hand is at the helm, the economy that has remained fairly robust with all the stimulus being passed around will reignite. I’m hopeful of that but I could paint an equally dour picture to the downside.

Once past the final wave, we’ll see strong growth and eventually the small businesses that got smoked in the past year will be reborn (I don’t mean to understate all of the pain that that reformation will entail as some many businesses fold and others start anew).

I’m really looking forward to an end to the pandemic, or if that can never happen, a mechanism for normalcy. This period of social isolation has been hard on the mental health of myself, friends and family. And we are relatively comfortable. There’s a lot of suffering right now. Be kind to each other not the least our host, Garth.

#15 Dolce Vita on 11.21.20 at 2:37 pm

Overall I concur Ryan about your take on the economy but there are a lot of caveats which I am sure you are aware of do not wish to alarm (some dependent upon quashing S. L. Pathogen).

1. Vaccine Efficacy
Incidents you wrote about (the 95 and 5) are measured “1,000 person years”. For example, they will track 1000 of their test subjects for 1 year or 2000 for 1/2 a year and so forth. Why they have 1,000’s of test subjects to compress the period of those 1,000 person year.

-Thus excellent numbers calculated by a method that gives little comfort (the compression of time)…you know, time heals all…not much time here it seems to me.

-The Pfizer partner that came up with the vaccine says basically probably NOT 90% but even if 50% will still be helpful at achieving herd immunity.

2. Vaccine Production, Logistics
It seems nobody interested with “Devil in the Details”. Already the World’s largest vaccine manufacturer in India (Pfizer contract) says 2024 for Planet Earth to be vaccinated. Since the vaccine is a “two-fer” 14B doses needed. Also a Swiss vaccine manufacturer (Moderna contract) says pretty much the same without naming a year.

-100’s of millions of doses purchased by World Gov’s, all beating their chests in victory, without a whimper about WHEN? When as in a schedule of millions per month.

-Procurement Canada bought low temp freezers today in the news, of course, no mention of HOW many, WHEN they will arrive and WHERE they are to be stationed (I blame FAST ASLEEP Cdn MSM for not asking those relevant questions that the procurement people ought to know…let alone HOW MUCH? which of course they did not ask).

-If the Pfizer partner is correct about his 50% efficacy “guesstimate” then make this many doses for Planet Earth:

28 Billion.

This assumes if Pfizer’s “two-fer” does not work then maybe Moderna’s “two-fer” will work?

3. Agree with your HOPE AND GLORY of seeing the backside of Trump. Recessions are:

1/2 Economy
1/2 Psychology

…halfway there to seeing a shortened recession.

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The other 1/2 well that is up to medicine’s claims they can dispatch S. L. Pathogen.

We’ll see since at the moment the DAMN VIRUS in no mood to let go any time soon.

PS:

Made the EXACT same chart from Our World in Data for some “nervous Canadian nellies” on Twitter trying to prove the point that Canada doing much better comparatively speaking to others.

For fun, try Canada vs. Europe (Linear, 7-Day rolling average, new confirmed COVID-19 cases)

where Canada’s line is NEAR indistinguishable from the X-Axis.

#16 Prince Polo on 11.21.20 at 2:40 pm

Three cheers for science!!!

#17 Doug t on 11.21.20 at 2:46 pm

My glass is empty

#18 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 11.21.20 at 2:50 pm

TFSAs are todays to topic.

The wife and I celebrated earlier this month. No, not our anniversary, not a birthday, and certainly not negative test results. On Nov 9th, we celebrated topping up both our TFSAs. In both our cases we had been accumulating contribution room starting in 2009, and all the while had been focusing on other aspects of life.

In late 2014 the last and final(!) kid came along. At the same time we realized how spendie we actually were. Amongst other things, we decided to re-focus: budgeting, planning, etc. and with that came our realization of the gift of what is the TFSA.

Life took hold. Kids. Diapers. Fevers. Kindergarten. Relocation (twice). But with good budgeting, planning and guidance we began contributing to both TFSAs in late 2015. Plugging away, even taking the money from the swear-jar, bonuses, tax refunds, etc., it took us about 4 years each to top up all contribution room accumulated over of the years.

On January 1st, 2021 we’ll each contribute about half of the available room for 2021, finishing it off with biweekly contributions and any tax refunds.

Don’t worry, both TFSAs hold growthy ETFs, and the kids RESP are also doing quite well.

@Garth – thank you.

#19 Dolce Vita on 11.21.20 at 2:55 pm

Prior Comment:

For fun, try Canada vs. Europe (Linear, 7-Day rolling average, new confirmed COVID-19 cases) where Canada’s line is NEAR indistinguishable from the X-Axis.

Save you all time, here it is:

https://i.imgur.com/cbKpJpg.png

Then again, an APPLES TO APPLES comparison (naughty Ryan), this time “per million”…”Kanada” still smelling like roses vs. Europa:

https://i.imgur.com/tQ2Cab4.png

and yet again roses when comparing Deaths (per million again):

https://i.imgur.com/GrpZ3Q0.png

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Why all the charts? Simple.

1/2 psychology.

Cdn MSM all the way up to Courtesan Justin and King Singh, in essence, frightening Canadians witless with their DEATH AND DAMNATION claims WHEN in fact Canada doing pretty good, stumbling all of the way in my view, but the above results speak for themselves.

Foolish Royal Canadian Court – since no Parliament etc. (drop the Constitutional from Constitutional Monarchy).

There will be death and damnation alright, of the livelihoods and future prospects of the GOOD people of Canada.

#20 Loonie Doctor on 11.21.20 at 2:57 pm

#20 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 11.21.20 at 2:50 pm

Congrats on the TFSAs and RESPs.
-LD

#21 Lead Paint on 11.21.20 at 3:09 pm

Great post Ryan!

“ I tend to be a ‘glass half full’ kind of guy”

Well I guess there aren’t too many doomer finical advisers.

p.s. my spellcheck wanted to change ‘doomer’ to ‘cooler, how cool would that have been?

#22 Oakville Rocks! on 11.21.20 at 3:17 pm

Great Saturday post as always. Thanks Ryan.

#23 Tripp on 11.21.20 at 3:24 pm

I have family and friends in E and W Europe, keep contact with them and read the European media. The message is mixed, and the results are varying greatly from country to country, or within the same country, or even the same metropolitan areas. Some countries implemented a much stricter lockdown than anywhere in N America, and are still not able to contain the spread. Obviously what has been tried previously is either not working or has limited or results, on both sides of the Atlantic.

The question is what we need to do, both now and in the near future?
What works and what doesn’t?
What are the next steps, and what are they based on?
What will be economic consequences of these lockdowns, and for how long?
Do average age, geography, wealth, race, ethnicity, culture, religion and other indicators play a role? To what extent?
How come less developed nations have way less contamination, in spite of inadequate healthcare? Why?
Is there anything that we can all do, apart from mask wearing, distancing and hand washing? What exactly?
Is there a cohesive and coherent worldwide approach on all of the above, and who is drafting the guidelines?

#24 Stealth on 11.21.20 at 3:27 pm

Thank you for your post, it is tough to find positive oriented financial thoughts. I am also very optimistic for the next two years and can feel it in my bones somehow.

One point for you to consider please, everyone is talking equities, stocks, dow etc, no one is mentioning fixed income side or it’s vision now or say next 2 years as if it was forbidden. It would be good to hear your team’s thoughts.

Much appreciated.

#25 Dave on 11.21.20 at 3:30 pm

What is the impact on real estate in Canada….3 months and 6 months from now?????

#26 paulo on 11.21.20 at 4:01 pm

My gut feeling is that voters in GA will put the Republicans in the penalty box in response to Trumps Antics my bet is that the Democrats will control both houses Viva la mother of all stimulus packages in Q1

#27 Linda on 11.21.20 at 4:30 pm

Have to say I’m disheartened by the increased infections & further pandemic related restrictions. I agree that it will have a deleterious effect upon the economy. I actually was in a couple of shops the other night. The dollar store was busy, lots of folks picking up decorations/wrapping/craft supplies for the holiday season. The other stores were less busy in my opinion than in previous years. Yes, folks were shopping but my impression was the usual frenzy was missing. Good for those shopping – parking was easy to find – but not so great for the bricks & mortar retailers.

My partner & I were talking about the vaccine & when we might expect to be able to get it. Canada has over 37 million people. That is one heck of a lot of injections. Plus one must presume that in order for non-essential travel to resume that proof of vaccination will be required. Frankly I’m wondering whether we will be able to even get a vaccination in 2021, since we do not fall into any of the health, essential worker or most vulnerable categories. Don’t mind waiting my turn, just realizing it isn’t going to happen any time soon.

#28 Penny Henny on 11.21.20 at 4:31 pm

How is Ryan supposed to get to 100 comments if his post doesn’t get published until 1 pm?
Doug is this your doing?

#29 HUNGRY BEAR on 11.21.20 at 4:38 pm

There’s only one way to get rid of Covid.

“LOCKDOWNS”

The world leaders are going to have to come to an agreement to keep the essential services going and fund it then worry about the debt later.

Hopes of administering a Vaccine to every man, woman, and child in every corner of the earth is a bit of a stretch.

#30 George on 11.21.20 at 4:42 pm

Overall I concur Ryan about your take on the economy but there are a lot of caveats which I am sure you are aware of do not wish to alarm (some dependent upon quashing S. L. Pathogen).

…………

Dolce, you sure do put a lot into posting here and this little bug seems to consume you

— do you work in public health? do you have a science background?

cheers

#31 Sydneysider on 11.21.20 at 4:48 pm

I too wonder whether we are in for a double dip. I would be very sorry to see this happen after a month of excellent investment returns.

Politicians will always act in their own interests, so policy will reflect the mood of the population, which for now supports or tolerates restrictions on normal life.

But if the govt does not provide more cash, the mood will turn in a matter of months. Young people in Canada may not be inclined to confrontation, but they will rebel in their own way. If the govt cracks down on that, parents will also turn. Canada is probably heading for a period of political instability and economic decline.

Most of my money is in the USA, which will not tolerate diminishment of its economic power relative to China. I see that as a safe bet, even under Biden.

#32 George on 11.21.20 at 4:48 pm

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#33 Penny Henny on 11.21.20 at 4:50 pm

Ok, speaking of lockdowns. This past week I purchased some LED christmas lights. 70 lights on a string and I bought 4. Each string of lights is rated at 4.8 watts. From my last hydro bill my electricity costs are about 19.8 cents per kilowatt hour (flat rate including all fees and rebates)
So someone please check my math-
4.8 watts x 4 strings x 18 hours per day x 19.8 cents =
6.84 cents per day. Sounds too cheap doesn’t it?
Now you may be asking what in dogs name does this have to do with lockdowns.
It just to keep your mind active so you don’t go crazy like me.
And it helps Ryan hit the century mark in comments.

#34 Flop... on 11.21.20 at 4:56 pm

Been trying to support small business.

I live 10 blocks from a No Frills Supermarket.

Haven’t been in there since late March.

I have been in small grocers, bakeries and fruit stands that I used to walk by.

Probably spent an extra 500 bucks on stuff trying to show them some support.

Not too bad.

Sorta cancelled out by not eating at restaurants as much, done take-away, haven’t put my backside in a restaurant seat since the Spring either.

Some of that down to some of them only having certain services.

Someone else will have to save them.

Lucky to be surrounded by so many eateries, as I would guess 30% are already shut and could easily see it passing 50% closure rate.

Couple of fruit stands have failed, but we always knew we were spoiled have 11 places to pick up fresh fruit and unfortunately green vegetables in a nine block stretch…

M46BC

#35 binky barnes on 11.21.20 at 5:13 pm

Any opinion on the short term future of the CDN buck, Ryan?

BB

#36 Job#1 on 11.21.20 at 5:22 pm

Thank you Ryan for that (sort of) upbeat prognostication. I am heartened that you think your forecast is among the possible scenarios about to unfold. But, I have a nagging feeling about the devastation of small businesses. Not being a compulsive researcher, my understanding is based on older numbers, and is currently that small business comprises approx. 60% of Canadian GDP , and perhaps as much as 70% in the USA. (I won’t be offended if my numbers are wrong and am corrected).
I have heard various estimates of the percentage of small businesses expected to succumb to lockdowns as ranging from 30-60%. Surely this represents a very large chunk of economic activity, the loss of which will have some proportional impact on our lives and standard of living. I know your focus is on financial markets, and mine is Main Street, but, is it possible that when stimulus and gov. support are withdrawn, we may be looking at something less rosy than what you have described?

#37 KAC on 11.21.20 at 5:28 pm

I’m a great believer in vaccinations which I am sure helped me avoid serious bouts of flu for decades.

The fact that two seperate pharmaceutical companies produced two different vaccines with nearly identical efficacy and were both able to release those results mere days after the US election is remarkable.

Let us hope these brilliant researchers can now be persuaded to turn their attention to AIDS and the common cold. What a boon that could be for all mankind.
(Sorry, I meant personkind)

#38 Eco Capitalist on 11.21.20 at 5:31 pm

What happened to the deferral cliff? Before the pandemic, real estate was over priced by about 100K around here. Now that the city folk are buying here, we’re pushing 250K over priced. I’d really like to see some normalcy in this market!

As to lockdowns, I think they’re going soft lock down (regional) until after Christmas, then they’ll do a hard lock down (as in everybody) in January when we have no reason to go out anyway.

#39 TurnerNation on 11.21.20 at 5:55 pm

What’s really going on. The (former) First World countries’ economies shut down in lock-step fashion this winter.
Small business gone, indebted (CEBA and the like).
As for us wage slaves? Called this many times years ago: you can call it UBI, CERB or whatever, but a new CV Caste system means a Maximum Wage that is here.

#82 TurnerNation on 07.04.17 at 10:28 pm
Our elites already have telegraphed the future to us.
Take everything they say and flip it 180 deg to make sense.
$15 minimum wage? That’s Maximum Wage to you.
Taxation will assure it so.

#175 TurnerNation on 12.26.17 at 8:26 am
What has been my prediction for this new $15 min wage in Ontariowe? Take everything our elites say and flip it 180 deg to make sense: $15 will be the MAXIMUM wage under globalism.

#166 TurnerNation on 09.11.17 at 8:04 am
Turn NewSpeak on its head: minimum wage = maximum wage.

#119 TurnerNation on 07.18.17 at 8:22 pm
A maximum wage of $15 net of taxes, carbon taxes and money stolen to overseas and never again seen

This year:
#132 TurnerNation on 05.18.20 at 6:45 pm
The bartender I talked to late year making 120k mainly cash fulltime and with part time freelance work at events + tips. They had their means of production taken away. $2000 month is their Maximum wage now. Welcome to the new global order.

#40 Ryan Lewenza on 11.21.20 at 6:01 pm

Job#1 “ Thank you Ryan for that (sort of) upbeat prognostication. I am heartened that you think your forecast is among the possible scenarios about to unfold. But, I have a nagging feeling about the devastation of small businesses. Not being a compulsive researcher, my understanding is based on older numbers, and is currently that small business comprises approx. 60% of Canadian GDP , and perhaps as much as 70% in the USA. (I won’t be offended if my numbers are wrong and am corrected)”

I’m also very concerned about small businesses. They are the backbone of local economies. They just need to hold on another quarter or two when I believe things will look a lot better with the rollout of the vaccines. I plan on covering this in a future blog post. – Ryan L

#41 SWL on 11.21.20 at 6:01 pm

#37 binky barnes

Any opinion on the short term future of the CDN buck, Ryan?

BB

——————

Haha binky you should have an idea where things are heading with the magic money machine in Ottawa. What could possibly go wrong?

Thanks again Garth for all that you do with moderating the comments section. I know we don’t always agree, but I do respect your stand on freedom of speech and a knowledgable and informed public

Scott

#42 Ryan Lewenza on 11.21.20 at 6:05 pm

Stealth “ Thank you for your post, it is tough to find positive oriented financial thoughts. I am also very optimistic for the next two years and can feel it in my bones somehow.

One point for you to consider please, everyone is talking equities, stocks, dow etc, no one is mentioning fixed income side or it’s vision now or say next 2 years as if it was forbidden. It would be good to hear your team’s thoughts. Much appreciated.”

Great suggestion. I’ll try to cover this over the next month. – Ryan L

#43 Turnipnation on 11.21.20 at 6:07 pm

#41 TurnerNation on 11.21.20 at 5:55 pm

Ok that’s bending the 2/day rules… there are five reposts embedded in there!!!

#44 Diversified in Oakville (Now Mississauga) on 11.21.20 at 6:11 pm

Well done on the post today!

I have been looking for some sort of market direction, to take a little off the table and have about 20% of my portfolio in cash for a buying opportunity. Your post speaks to this in an excellent manner.

Extremely well done to install the Moderator’s Note!!

Now if you can just permanently delete Turner Nation, all will be well with the world.

Be well all, and stay safe.

#45 Stan Brooks on 11.21.20 at 6:20 pm

#38 Job#1 on 11.21.20 at 5:22 pm

Prepare for the worst, while hoping for the best.
Hope itself is not a viable survival strategy. Paranoia is/but is hard to sell.

And somehow I feel we have already far surpassed my darkest predictions from a few years ago (I am not a negative person, just realist), no doubt thanks to the virus that transported us 10-15 years into the future with no time machine to come back.

Chiming in to help Ryan achieve the bonus number of comments.

Cheers,

#46 Paul on 11.21.20 at 6:35 pm

#13 RyYYZ on 11.21.20 at 2:16 pm
“This blog is not a forum for anti-vaccine comments, nor will it host a debate on public health initiatives such as mask-wearing. All submissions on these topics will be deleted.”
=====================================

Cool with me.
————————————————————————————————
What about positive vaccine comments?

#47 Sara on 11.21.20 at 6:51 pm

This article should be read by the “what’s the big deal, mortality rate is only 1%?” crowd, in order to understand that despite a low mortality rate, COVID-19 is a significant health threat to societies.

https://www.boredpanda.com/1-percent-mortality-coronavirus-franklin-veaux/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic

#48 cuke and tomato picker on 11.21.20 at 6:53 pm

I hope you are correct but talking to some people in
business things are slowing down and like my wife’s
hairdresser says people are realizing they can go longer between haircuts and less coloring.

#49 Nonplused on 11.21.20 at 7:00 pm

“This blog is not a forum for anti-vaccine comments, nor will it host a debate on public health initiatives such as mask-wearing. All submissions on these topics will be deleted.”

Well, that will certainly reduce the comment count!

I’m not sure it is fair to plot Canada vs. US infection rates on the same scale as the US is 10 times bigger than Canada. But even adjusting for that it does appear that they have a 2 to 3 times higher infection rate, which is not good. But these things spread exponentially until you get to about 50% of the population so our numbers could change rapidly. I wouldn’t go bragging about Canada’s response just yet.

Looking at the US curve, it would be interesting to see the lockdowns and mask recommendations plotted as well. Clearly the curve can be exponential as is the case recently, say from September on, but something must explain the up and down nature of the curve that deviated from a smoother exponential curve before that. Did the masks and social distancing work? It appears so. But these measures were never billed as being fool proof, they were only supposed to slow things down, which it appears they did.

Relief will come in the form of a vaccine and herd immunity. Some people will say 95% is not 100% and they’d be right, and they’d probably be the same people who say 50% is not 95% in the case of masks. But if you are going to play Russian roulette, wouldn’t you want the least possible number of bullets in the gun? In this case I’d rather the gun be 50% or 75% (compounding effects of masks lead to higher success than just one mask) or 95% empty than 100% full.

Anyway you can’t fix stupid, so I say leave the anti-vaxers to themselves. I can see why you wouldn’t want them on the blog though.

Oh I suppose this comment might not make it through either, as I am not sure comments in support of masks and the potential vaccine are gone too with a blanket ban on the subject. I will submit and find out!

To me it just makes sense. Nothing in life works 100% but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do whatever helps.

Anyway I would still recommend that 2 is the new 1 when stocking your pantry. The vaccine isn’t here yet and it could be an interesting winter. I don’t think it would be prudent to just let the curve go exponential based on some expected release date for the vaccine so while I agree with Ryan’s forecast of what will happen I am going to err on the side of caution as to when it will happen. Predicting things is very difficult, especially the future. Or the other platitude is you can forecast what will happen, or when, but never both.

#50 meslippery on 11.21.20 at 7:04 pm

#35 Penny Henny
Ok, speaking of lockdowns. This past week I purchased some LED christmas lights. 70 lights on a string and I bought 4. Each string of lights is rated at 4.8 watts. From my last hydro bill my electricity costs are about 19.8 cents per kilowatt hour (flat rate including all fees and rebates)
So someone please check my math-
4.8 watts x 4 strings x 18 hours per day x 19.8 cents =
6.84 cents per day. Sounds too cheap doesn’t it?
Now you may be asking what in dogs name does this have to do with lockdowns.
It just to keep your mind active so you don’t go crazy like me.
And it helps Ryan hit the century mark in comments.
—————-
$6.84 per day x 31 days =$212.04 Wow sounds crazy for a few LED lamps

#51 Thoughts on 11.21.20 at 7:24 pm

We are witnessing decisions being taken and policies beineing made, anywhere from never seen debt levels which will never be paid back, to environmental and social policies which will affect everyone not just for the next 5, 10, 20 years, but for multiple generations.
…then think of how and who is making these decisions – a man and a group of people who got 30-31% of the popular vote in this country, and that is 30% of the 70% of the eligible voters that shows up. So, every day, we are seeing people who received 30% * 70% = 21% approval of the entire voting public and yet, with a “mandate of 21%” they are making such consequential decisions that it should be an affront to everyone living in a democracy.

Down south they are being governed by someone who got maybe 48, maybe 49, 50% of the popular vote. We are being governed by a group who barely got a fifth of the eligible vote, just something to think about the state of our democracy, regardless of whether you agree with the policies.

#52 Nonplused on 11.21.20 at 7:27 pm

#30 Penny Henny on 11.21.20 at 4:31 pm
How is Ryan supposed to get to 100 comments if his post doesn’t get published until 1 pm?
Doug is this your doing?

———————-

People read Greater Fool at 1 pm? It’s happy hour reading for me. And I am in the west so I don’t get to it until about 6 pm eastern.

Anyway the reason Doug and Ryan tend to score lower comment totals is because a) it’s Saturday, b) they talk about markets not houses, and 3) they don’t have Garth’s flair for controversy.

For example on point number 3) Ryan did not mention Trump, Trudeau, F150’s, Harleys, WFH, TP, Biden, the electoral college, dogs, Dog, marital relations, millennials, boomers, or houses even once. If Garth is the kid poking the hornet’s’ nest with a stick, Doug and Ryan are the kids watching from a safe distance with their laces tied tight.

#53 SW on 11.21.20 at 7:38 pm

Excellent post.
Our job right now, all of us, is to stay well for the medium term until vaccines are available.
Wei all know what to do to keep our families, friends and communities safe.
Don’t be the last Tommy to die before Armistice.

#54 Nonplused on 11.21.20 at 7:44 pm

#35 Penny Henny on 11.21.20 at 4:50 pm

So someone please check my math-
4.8 watts x 4 strings x 18 hours per day x 19.8 cents =
6.84 cents per day. Sounds too cheap doesn’t it?

Math looks good except you hid the /1000 to go from watts to kilowatts. LED lights are crazy efficient. And why the heck are your lights on for 18 hours a day?

—————-

And it helps Ryan hit the century mark in comments.

I’m doing my part. Go Ryan!

#55 dogwhistle on 11.21.20 at 7:51 pm

#41 TurnerNation on 11.21.20 at 5:55 pm

#119 TurnerNation on 07.18.17 at 8:22 pm
A maximum wage of $15 net of taxes, carbon taxes and money stolen to overseas and never again seen

—————————————

ahhhh, so cute. Would you prefer living on $40 a month in Bangladesh and die at approx 50 yo max?

I don’t do wage, I do dividends AKA taking risks.

PS: As you’re still around (every court needs a jester)
could you tell me what you’re smoking?

#56 dogwhistle on 11.21.20 at 7:57 pm

#25 Tripp on 11.21.20 at 3:24 pm

You make good points.

I know that for example, France doesn’t allow ethnic data. So they can’t officially say if BAME people catch it more than the others. Because “egalite” and all that.

UK does collect data but went into the wall at high speed in one way, yet in the other financed the Oxford Astra Zeneca project both vaccine and antibodies (being tested now for those who have now or deficient immune systems).

Medical teams have learned a lot since last winter, and saved a lot of people, it seems like the health systems are being overrun with little to no spare capacity for other emergencies.

Same in Ontario, from what I understand.

It’s going to be a tough winter…

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.21.20 at 8:03 pm

#50 cuke and tomato picker on 11.21.20 at 6:53 pm
I hope you are correct but talking to some people in
business things are slowing down and like my wife’s
hairdresser says people are realizing they can go longer between haircuts and less coloring.
—————
Almost everyone is affected by the virus in some shape or another.
And almost everyone agrees that this will be over at some point.
History has shown that businesses which, during a downturn, reorganize and prepare for the coming upturn, will be far ahead of the pack.

#58 Flop... on 11.21.20 at 8:08 pm

#4 Russ on 11.21.20 at 1:22 pm
Hey Flop,

I see the comments were a little too distracted on Friday to address your question in a serious manner.

The wife & I have daily dose of supplements as:
Vitamin D3 – 3000 iu winter & 1500 iu summer
Vitamin C – 3000 mg

Zinc Glucomate – 50 mg twice (100 total) ~15 mg elemental Zc

///////////////////////////

Hey Russco, I looked at my original numbers and they looked really low to yours, but I only included the amount in a multivitamin I take which of overlaps on certain vitamins.

Here are my current easily readable amounts from capsules/tablets.

Vitamin C 560mg
Vitamin D 1800IU
Zinc 7.5 mg a day.

Still quite low compared to you.

Coming home from work in a dusty environment I often have sore throat and after getting sick of all the other flavours I stumbled across these immunity teas from Tetley

Tastes good, supposedly 20% of daily recommended zinc intake in each cup.

Has lemon and echinacea in it.

https://www.tetley.ca/en/our-range/caffeine-free/tetley-super-herbal-tea-immune-lemon-echinacea-zinc

This is another one I have in the cupboard with zinc and vitamin D, but tastes different because it has peppermint and ginger in it.

https://www.tetley.ca/en/our-range/herbal/tetley-super-herbal-tea-immune-plus-peppermint-ginger-zinc-vitamin-d

I drink them for the flavours, not for health enhancement but someone might like to give them a try in this time.

Always remember, I’m a construction worker, not a quack…

M46BC

#59 Kevin on 11.21.20 at 8:12 pm

Thanks Ryan, great post, whole heartedly agree.

Re: moderator’s note, FINALLY! Thank you, let’s keep this comment section clean and useful, and NOT a source for disinformation and propaganda.

“This blog is not a forum for anti-vaccine comments, nor will it host a debate on public health initiatives such as mask-wearing. All submissions on these topics will be deleted.

#60 Kurt on 11.21.20 at 8:16 pm

“This blog is not a forum for anti-vaccine comments, nor will it host a debate on public health initiatives such as mask-wearing. All submissions on these topics will be deleted.”

Thankyou Thankyou Thankyou!

#61 Keen Reader on 11.21.20 at 8:22 pm

Discussing “Cases” bugs me, as they don’t differentiate between requiring medical attention vs asymptotic carriers vs false positives vs more testing. Basing public policies and making financial decisions based on “cases” is risky, IMHO. I appreciate the positive tone but I will keep some cash outside my B&D portfolio, waiting for inevitable buying opportunities in the turbulent months ahead. I fess up being slightly behind due to this cash position, but enjoy better peace of mind.

The “novel” mRNA vaccine technology indeed looks very promising and should bring new medical possibilities beyond COVID. Meanwhile, we only see press releases on these new vaccines, no hard data readily available yet. As much as I look forward to travelling again, it seems early to pull my sleeve up at this point. Good questions and solid evidence make for good science; asking questions should not make one an “anti-vaxxer”. No dogma, it’s just the usual conflict between individual and community interests. For now, I gladly let others get in line first, will see how things develop, then decide. Good luck to all, and go Ryan go!!

#62 FriedEggs on 11.21.20 at 8:34 pm

‘One of the prominent features of the disintegration we’ve been witnessing is the cancelation of all rational debate. This nihilistic approach asserts that an idea is worthless if the person advancing the idea has a “personal flaw.”

Aside from the puerile fallacy of attacking the person and failing to examine the idea, the whole campaign is mindless, because every person can be criticized for having a flaw. Therefore, no idea under the sun is worth considering or putting into practice.’

-Jon Rappoport Nov18/20

#63 mark on 11.21.20 at 8:54 pm

Remember 1955, good, go for your jab then.

#64 Nonplused on 11.21.20 at 9:03 pm

#52 meslippery on 11.21.20 at 7:04 pm

Penny forgot to show the watt/hour to kilowatt/hour conversion in her work. It is 6.84 cents, not dollars. Although why she has them on for 18 hours a day is still not clear. I suppose it is cheaper than getting a timer.

Although once the Green New Deal is in effect it could very well be dollars.

I like Christmas lights and have way more of them than Penny does, mostly because it adds some cheer to the dreariest time of the year, but mine shut off at midnight. Nobody is around to see them after that anyway. I only run them all night from Christmas eve until New Year’s day.

But anyway it is a family and neighborhood thing. Part of a festival if you will. Our Chinese neighbors/friends 3 doors down have already asked when we are putting them up. They certainly aren’t Christian, but everybody enjoys turning the dark days of winter into a sort of festival. My son, who is also not a Christian so far as I can tell, also loves putting up the lights. He be climbing around in the trees while my wife feeds him light strings while I run power cords. We might put them up tomorrow.

You know the whole season kind of goes on its own. My son is also in Scouts. If you want to meet Nonplused, make a note here and maybe I will tell you when we will be selling Christmas trees at the local Canadian Tire. Well, we don’t do the selling, CT does that, but we will help you pick out a nice one and load it on your vehicle. Masks on of course this year. Or maybe support your local Scout troop wherever you are and buy your tree at CT. The Scouts can’t sell popcorn or collect bottles door to door this year so if you support the program buy a tree at CT. You might get to meet Nonplused! Only on the weekends though.

The code pass will be “Garth has done so much for Canadians”. If I hear that I will introduce myself.

#65 D.D. Corkum on 11.21.20 at 9:06 pm

#63 Keen Reader on 11.21.20 at 8:22 pm

“Cases […] don’t differentiate between requiring medical attention vs asymptotic carriers vs false positives vs more testing.”

—-

Many clinical trials, especially by stage 3, are called “double blind” meaning neither the volunteer nor their doctors know if the individual received the real thing or a placebo.

Thus, the two samples are about as equal in their behaviour as practical. So the meaning of ‘cases’ should also be nearly identical between the two samples.

To be clear, I’m not disagreeing that ‘cases’ can mean different things to different individuals. But averaged across entire populations/samples, the double-blind design should average things out so the statistics are comparing apples-to-apples.

#66 Ustabe on 11.21.20 at 9:27 pm

This is why we need up vote/down vote buttons. This should be at the top. Sara, good enough to post twice:

#49 Sara on 11.21.20 at 6:51 pm

This article should be read by the “what’s the big deal, mortality rate is only 1%?” crowd, in order to understand that despite a low mortality rate, COVID-19 is a significant health threat to societies.

https://www.boredpanda.com/1-percent-mortality-coronavirus-franklin-veaux/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.21.20 at 9:28 pm

#56 Nonplused on 11.21.20 at 7:44 pm
#35 Penny Henny on 11.21.20 at 4:50 pm

So someone please check my math-
4.8 watts x 4 strings x 18 hours per day x 19.8 cents =
6.84 cents per day. Sounds too cheap doesn’t it?

Math looks good except you hid the /1000 to go from watts to kilowatts. LED lights are crazy efficient. And why the heck are your lights on for 18 hours a day?

—————-

And it helps Ryan hit the century mark in comments.

I’m doing my part. Go Ryan!
—————-
Ryan,
Watch out, this guy is after your weekend job.

#68 joblo on 11.21.20 at 9:30 pm

Can’t wait, when the restaurants reopen,
“Waiter, I’ll have the bat soup”

#69 Keith in Rio on 11.21.20 at 9:40 pm

Wifey and I were walking thru the two largest malls here in Calgary today. Both display the following characteristics……

1-The remaining merchants are downsizing their retail “footprint” dramatically.

2-Store staff are almost non-existent ecxc ept for the one who wants your cash.

3-There are lots of empty papered over locations for lease. Easily 25% or more depending on the specific mall.

4-There are also lots of new one off “mom and pop” retail stores opening up as well. I personally like this trend, as I purposely avoid patronizing any corporate chains at all costs, unless I have no choice whatsoever.

Why did I mention this ? Landlords loath mom and pop stores, but they need the monthly “vig” to cover their carrying costs, so they drop their “perceived” better standards accordingly.

5-There were literally no people there at 400 PM on a Saturday afternoon. Entire mall corridors were empty, and what few people who were there, like us, didn’t seem to have bags in their hands. Maybe they were getting some exercise indoors which is why we went there.

#70 Masks are for Goalies! on 11.21.20 at 9:42 pm

Sadly it would appear that we may have 60-70% of retail restaurants and small walk-in personal care operations out of business by December 31 at this pace.

Hard to imagine what that will do to our economy. Will those losses ever be recovered?

#71 Ordinary Blog Dog on 11.21.20 at 9:58 pm

Well – different tone on here tonight. Some may be disappointed their favorite topics are out of bounds.

Ryan, I have often wondered why there is not an emphasis in messaging (outside this blog) which encourages saving and investing – rather than the spend as you earn and buy a house behaviors we see now. Surely there would be a large number to willingly promote this – like financial advisors and wealth managers. I thought people would evolve to this over time, but is does not seem to be happening, I thought COVID would make people vow to become more financially independent on the other side of this mess.

#72 Russ on 11.21.20 at 9:58 pm

Hey Russco, I looked at my original numbers and they looked really low to yours, but I only included the amount in a multivitamin I take which of overlaps on certain vitamins.

Here are my current easily readable amounts from capsules/tablets.

Vitamin C 560mg
Vitamin D 1800IU
Zinc 7.5 mg a day.

Still quite low compared to you.

Coming home from work in a dusty environment I often have sore throat and after getting sick of all the other flavours I stumbled across these immunity teas from Tetley

Tastes good, supposedly 20% of daily recommended zinc intake in each cup.

Has lemon and echinacea in it.

https://www.tetley.ca/en/our-range/caffeine-free/tetley-super-herbal-tea-immune-lemon-echinacea-zinc

This is another one I have in the cupboard with zinc and vitamin D, but tastes different because it has peppermint and ginger in it.

https://www.tetley.ca/en/our-range/herbal/tetley-super-herbal-tea-immune-plus-peppermint-ginger-zinc-vitamin-d

I drink them for the flavours, not for health enhancement but someone might like to give them a try in this time.

Always remember, I’m a construction worker, not a quack…

M46BC
==========================================

Hey Flop,

The missus & I prefer natural or non-pharmaceutical remedies vs prescription too.
The Tetley tea sounds good but I deal with a scratchy throat after work with a nice India Pale Ale at cellar temperature (approx 50 F).

I am industrial worker with planning, supervision and production responsibilities, so a bit o’ stress at times. Often these days I really miss not ‘being on the tools’.

Here are some fun facts:
Vitamin C, humans utilize this while under stress. Humans are the only mammal that does not produce its own vitamin C. Search for Dr. Linus Pauling research works.
You can increase the dose in the morning or the day before a high-stress day or adopt my strategy of “a little more than required”.
If you have a ghetto blaster rocking all day and no one rides your ass (might as well pull the hair too then) your dosage is just fine.

Vitamin D3, this is a well known immune system helping… research goes years & years back but I first learned of it on this blog by one of the wise guys.
Investigations lead me to Dr. John Campbell and the wife & I adopted higher daily doses. I can say that since taking Vit D3 since March 2020 neither of has had Covid19 symptoms. Proof! :)

Doc John Campbell:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk

Zinc was also recommended by the wise guy, above. It is also a well standing known anti-viral aid. But it is a little more slippery.
You can have too much but fortunately most of the stuff easily available is pretty lame in the elemental zinc stature.
Some info here: 7:1, label vs elemental for gluconate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk

Cheers, R

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.21.20 at 10:39 pm

#71
Total opposite here in Vancouver.
If it were not for all the masks, you would not think there is a pandemic.

#74 cuke and tomato picker on 11.21.20 at 10:53 pm

Looks like The Bay is gone.

#75 Ace Goodheart on 11.21.20 at 10:57 pm

DELETED

#76 Cowtown Cowboy on 11.21.20 at 11:36 pm

Growing up I seldom if ever got the flu, had a bad case during my undergrad, soaked sheets, etc., I never bothered getting the shot as I felt immune…I might have had h1n1 as the timing lined up, whatever it was, it was nasty. I get the shot now even though I wasn’t close to dying..but I sure felt like I wanted to. I’m not concerned about this virus but I’m sure I’ll take the shot, just won’t be the first in line

#77 Long-Time Lurker on 11.21.20 at 11:53 pm

#60 Flop… on 11.21.20 at 8:08 pm
#4 Russ on 11.21.20 at 1:22 pm
Hey Flop,

Hey Russco, I looked at my original numbers and they looked really low to yours, but I only included the amount in a multivitamin I take which of overlaps on certain vitamins.

Flop, Russ is giving you good advice. I think your Vitamin C & D dosages are sufficient as a preventative measure and that you can increase them if you ever start to feel sick. The teas also sound beneficial.

Back in March I read that a hospital in New York City was administering Vitamin C to Covid patients as they found they had low levels of Vitamin C. Later on, I read that British hospitals found that the patients who were more ill with Covid had lower levels of Vitamin D.

My sister, who works in a hospital, said that a local company was giving this free to healthcare workers back in March. Based on what I’ve read (all year) it should be effective.

Herbaland Immune Plus Gummies for Adults
Vitamin C: 210mg. Vitamin D3: 15 mcg, (600IU). Zinc: 9mg.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/new-york-hospitals-treating-coronavirus-patients-with-vitamin-c/

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-vitamin-d-deficiency-covid-healthcare.html

I don’t read all of the comments now — just whatever my passing mood feels like.

#78 Long-Time Lurker on 11.21.20 at 11:55 pm

UK leader to end England’s national lockdown on Dec. 2
BY DANICA KIRKA, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Posted Nov 21, 2020 2:30 pm PST Last Updated Nov 21, 2020 at 2:32 pm PST

LONDON — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to end an England-wide lockdown as scheduled on Dec. 2 and to announce a return to regional restrictions as statistics show coronavirus infections have stabilized.

Johnson’s office said late Saturday that the government plans to return to using a three-tiered system of localized restrictions in England, with areas facing different measures based on the severity of their outbreaks. More communities are expected to be placed in the two highest virus alert categories, Johnson’s office said in a statement.

The government put England under a four-week lockdown that started Nov. 5. The Cabinet is scheduled to discuss the plans Sunday, and the prime minister is aiming to give Parliament the details on Monday, according to the statement.

Johnson’s office also confirmed plans to begin a nationwide COVID-19 vaccination program next month, assuming regulators approve a vaccine against the virus. The government also will increase mass testing in an effort to suppress the virus until vaccines can be rolled out….

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/11/21/uk-leader-to-end-englands-national-lockdown-on-dec-2/

#79 Diamond Dog on 11.22.20 at 12:08 am

So the question is, will these lock downs lead to another major economic downturn similar to what we saw in the second quarter and will this derail our thesis for a return to global growth in 2021 and the end of this terrible global recession? – Ryan

Historically, it can be easily argued that we are, removed from the exuberant optimism of the 90’s of which we may not see 2000 market bubble valuations repeat in our lifetimes, once again in near record territory at least according to a Shiller chart:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Is it justified? Clearly, governments and CB’s have manipulated the market place. The markets aren’t running normally and likely won’t for some time to come. Can government and coordinated media interference keep these valuations near these levels? Market confidence isn’t coming from earnings, but from speculation of the how big the government bailout is going to be, and when. This is a big problem for short term investors (some longers too). Once that bailout is announced and finalized, what will keep this gasbag going? Earnings? With quarterlies during shutdowns? At least Q2 away and that’s being optimistic. Pent up demand should make at least Q3 positive but can it be sustained through Q4 2021? I believe the level of bankruptcies will decide the tone.

Hope for a return to 2019 levels could be years away from fruition now. Hope is there yes, but the level of bankruptcies in airlines, restaurants, bars, entertainment, parts of the service industry, tourism, trade, oil, even health care has suffered as elective surgery’s have been put off because of Covid19 and electives are where the money is. Vaccines simply can’t paper over the damage being done to consumer spending right now. How long can the market run on hope?

I don’t envy the position money managers are in. Valuations aren’t currently justified by fundamentals. For the most part, the entire marketplace has been manipulated by CB’s and bailouts and the prospects of more bailouts. At some point, valuations have to give way to fundamentals and I think it will take years for fundamentals to catch up to where things were before the pandemic. Problem is, market indexes are already there. Can the government continue on it’s course of interference? in the short term yes, more as a defense but after the short term, it can’t (too much fiscal risk). So, managers are stuck. Buy low, sell high right? I don’t see what can take this market higher, I only see risk.

Just my opinion here, not speaking for anyone else but I see a market sell off beginning maybe around Christmas, early next year gaining momentum that will trigger the U.S. bailout package rollout. (I think its what the Senate is waiting on now, a selloff, makes sense) If this year is any indication, it comes with the DOW in the low, mid 20’s maybe. I don’t think senate elections out of Georgia will change much even if the Dems win, its bi-partisan sentiment behind closed doors. Once more stimulus comes out, it’s anyone’s guess as to where the market goes, it could fall farther, depends on the level of shutdowns in Feb/March. I think the market will continue to sell off but that’s just me. I’ve been a bear on this site for ages and I’ve been wrong before, but this is what I see now.

#80 mousey on 11.22.20 at 12:56 am

A lot of “sympathy” for small business, but this amounts to precious little on the cold hard streets of reality. Honestly, if I hear one more bureaucrat say small businesses just need to “hold on” I think….well, there is no polite way to say what I think. Just do what you can to support the local deli, bakery, pizza joint and book store.

#81 Buy by bye on 11.22.20 at 3:27 am

Usually a vaccine approval involves a minimum of 40,000 and takes two to three years. This is the first time in history the will to “wish away” a pandemic has been acceptable scientific dogma. The 95% result is a subjective result. To date , science has had little success dealing directly with respiratory virus. So there. I’m going to continue to think this will a process rather than an event. I’m conducting my investment strategy accordingly. Neither Yahoo, Democrats or TDS media makes my investment decisions. Stick the signal, ignore the noise.

OK? March 23 / 20 was dreamland for investors, but few, including myself picked the perfect bottom. However, solid companies, that pay well covered dividends are paying off. At this point stock prices don’t matter, company fundamentals do. Good example REITs , most have been collected 80++ rents but have been hit harder than that, the upside of many is juicy. Who cares if the stock price is misunderstood by ‘managers’. If the truth be told, many money managers aren’t really that competent.

I found a Canadian bank trading 60% below pre-Covid values, fundamentals, fantastic. So, if you think that science will will the Covid game, then two years of buying what’s on sale while collecting sweet dividends should be a no brainer. If not, you might be brain damaged.

#82 Phylis on 11.22.20 at 7:05 am

#56 Nonplused on 11.21.20 at 7:44 pm
#35 Penny Henny on 11.21.20 at 4:50 pm

So someone please check my math-
4.8 watts x 4 strings x 18 hours per day x 19.8 cents =
6.84 cents per day. Sounds too cheap doesn’t it?

Math looks good except you hid the /1000 to go from watts to kilowatts. LED lights are crazy efficient. And why the heck are your lights on for 18 hours a day?

——-
You could add the cost of running your crazy setting timer. Let’s say it uses 5watts.

#83 Sky on 11.22.20 at 7:37 am

“This blog is not a forum for anti-vaccine comments, nor will it host a debate on public health initiatives such as mask-wearing. All submissions on these topics will be deleted.”

*********************************************
Freedom to express a difference of opinion just about anywhere today has been reduced to the following — ” You can say what you want to say… as long as what you say is exactly what *I* want you to say.”

This is not an enlightened attitude. And because peoples’ minds are closed, this will consequently lead to much, much more than just minds being closed. And this will be done by force.

That said — I agree with Garth’s decision. Not that it matters. It’s his blog. Fair enough. And from a purely selfish point of view – the whole damn thing was giving me a headache. Skull cramps.

What can anybody possibly say at this point that will sway opinions? Both sides are entrenched. 50/50 like the Democrats & Republicans. I’ll just scroll past any vaccine posts from now on because they’re becoming tedious. As boring as the mask posts.

So, I read Garth’s blog for his economic analysis. And for his writing style, of course. Now the forum — Mostly for entertainment… but the boots-on-the-ground reports from all over Canada and other parts of the world are becoming increasingly important to me. As are the links ( especially TurnerNation’s) since TV ‘news’ has been completely banned in our house. Other than CNBC. They’ll be next. Way too much propaganda now.

But nobody can ignore the news COMPLETELY anymore. The price can be too costly (more on that later). And turning off the news doesn’t shut off the COVID narrative anyway because it’s infiltrated the dramas, sit-coms, quiz shows & comedy. And the commercials. God, spare me those commercials. Next time I see Tam’s face I swear I will have another heart arrhythmia. She owes me a new remote too. The mute’s shot.

You guys who are still working don’t know how lucky you are. Try living in cold, dark Canada during these times while retired. They’ve shut down all the action & entertainment in our world & have added draconian new restrictions on access to our own families.

So how about some sorely needed OT entertainment ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ on this forum? Is anyone up for a petty squabble? BTW- Elevator Fartz – Why are you in exile? Didn’t you win the bet? Biden won.

#84 Gravy Train on 11.22.20 at 7:50 am

“A Zoom Thanksgiving is a lot better than an ICU Christmas.” — Former CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden

#85 George S on 11.22.20 at 8:12 am

#84 Phylis said:
“You could add the cost of running your crazy setting timer. Let’s say it uses 5watts.”

I was scrolling down to comment on Penny Henny’s post but you did it for me.

However you thought of something that I didn’t.

By having the lights on a timer, likely a mechanical one run with a small electric gear motor you would be using more electricity than you save by trying to save the electricity.

It is similar to recycling. You have to look very carefully at the energy balance of recycling and decide what your priorities are. If you priority is reducing greenhouse gas emissions then you have to look very carefully at the emissions produced from the instant that the item to be recycled is discarded to the time when it is delivered to the end user in its new form and compare it to a non-recycled item.

#86 Cheekmonster on 11.22.20 at 8:25 am

The markets respond well to gridlock. if the Democrats take the Senate there will likely be a bigger stimulus but there were also be many other changes especially to tax code. Overall the market will not react well to them winning the Senate. Gridlock is best for the next two years until mid terms.

#87 Ace Goodheart on 11.22.20 at 8:43 am

DELETED

#88 Diamond Dog on 11.22.20 at 8:53 am

I suppose I should push back somewhat on the “Moderator’s note”, if I may. A discussion on the science of what plagues our modern age isn’t the problem, its the tone of the discussion. In certain contexts, we’ve lost our civility and we’ve grown “intolerable” to a message we don’t agree with.

Lets get right to it. The U.S. in how it’s handled this pandemic which has obviously devastated economies the world over, just by total cases per million pop, cases per capita, is at 37,429 cases per million or 3.74% tested positive (real number is likely double) and is within the 10 ten highest nations per capita in the world. Only Belgium (4.8%), Czechia (4.6%), Qatar (4.9%), Armenia (4.2%), Bahrain (4.9%), Montenegro (4.9%) Luxembourg (4.8%), French Polynesia (4.6%) and Andorra (8.0%) have higher positive cases per capita. Thing is, if we added these other nations gen pops up, we would have maybe 10% of the U.S. population. Per capita where it counts, the U.S. has the highest infection rate in the world.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

We could try to explain this away with science. The U.S. tests more (but do they?). International air flights are higher per capita out of the U.S. than anywhere in the G7, maybe G20 and more seeded early on but the greater explanation is, their government ignored the science and politicized this pandemic. The Trump administration ignored its responsibilities and played gutter politics with a pandemic and the economic consequences have been devastating. It’s the elephant in the room of any economics blog, lets not tippy toe around it.

When I say gutter, its politics 101. When you fail, you minimize or outright lie away from the failure. Where you think you succeed or your base thinks you succeed, you exaggerate your accomplishments and all the while, you attack anyone that attacks you, painting them with the same brush you’ve been labelled with. Your opponents are just as corrupt, worse than you and its better to go with the devil you know. (how many times did we witness Trump self projecting btw) It’s the distortion of reality, it’s gutter politics, we’ve seen it play out at the highest levels for years in the U.S. with it’s volume at its highest during this election cycle and its an obvious epic fail playbook with something like a pandemic.

When you play gutter politics with a pandemic, people die. Want to war on science where most of it isn’t even up for debate, people will die. We have to face certain uncomfortable truths, one of them being that Trump was someone who wasn’t mentally fit for the job. (gutter politics = narcissism, vice versa) As a leader, to set this kind of example and path for others to follow, its not difficult to understand why forums have had a much higher than usual volume of comments that are abusive and full of conflict. This is what North Americans have had to endure from the highest office of the land and until leadership changes (it really is top down), we will continue to experience a much higher level of noise oozing poor mental health and we’ll have to deal with that. We can try censorship and delete messaging we don’t like while we are at it (a slippery slope) but sometimes its just best to call it out for what it is. Failed leadership. Failed leadership that begs for us all to become more psychologically aware so we don’t have to go through this again.

Now, its up to the Biden administration to provide new choices and a different path. Gone hopefully, is the wasted energy on deflect and blame, replacing those wasted efforts with energy poured into solutions that meet the challenges of our time. This pandemic is not the world’s greatest challenge. It may seem this way in the moment, but as our rightful leaders point out, these moments will pass.

The greatest challenge is still climate change. If we continue to play gutter politics with this challenge, the true existential threat never mind economic threat, its over. Whether we succeed or fail, we’ll have to live and die with the consequences of our choices. “Uneasy is the head that wears the crown”.

I’m going to assume readers understand the significance of an Arctic ocean without summer ice and see what the charts are saying. This is the volume of Arctic sea ice on Nov 20th of 2014:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/2014/ictn2014112012_2014112200_563_arcticictn.001.gif

Here is where we are now:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2020112012_2020112200_930_arcticictn.001.gif

Not that changing the minds of those reading these words will make much difference, I get that but important choices we can still make. For one, we can make our peace with God.

#89 David Hawke on 11.22.20 at 8:56 am

There’s something weird about this “pandemic” which seems to be hitting mainly so-called first world countries while hardly bothering those with emerging economies.

An example is Thailand with only 50 deaths as of a couple of days ago, strange, eh!

#90 NoName on 11.22.20 at 8:59 am

For flop and russ and other vitamins pushers. I recommend ceterumsliver makes you young again.

https://youtu.be/uVciAzCVDN8

#91 MF on 11.22.20 at 9:04 am

#43 SWL on 11.21.20 at 6:01 pm

These comments so steeped in irrational fear are hilarious.

The dollar has been gaining on the USD for months. Has anyone noticed? Doesn’t mean it will continue forever but in a world where currencies are compared to each other, and everyone is doing the same thing, what would trigger a sell off?

(This is where someone mentions Venezuela or Zimbabwe).

If anything expect the opposite as the demand for oil is set to explode in the future, and we could see some inflation and interest rate hikes -bullish for the cad.

MF

#92 Dharma Bum on 11.22.20 at 9:36 am

In the long run, the markets go up.
Invest today, reap the benefits in the future.
Delay gratification.
Don’t be overly indulgent.
Covid, and other events, will temporarily muddy the waters, but society will ultimately prevail.
Those that are patient, disciplined, and stay the course will be fine over time.
Those that are overly reactive to short term events will be sorry.

#93 Sara on 11.22.20 at 9:47 am

#90 Diamond Dog ” The greatest challenge is still climate change. If we continue to play gutter politics with this challenge, the true existential threat never mind economic threat, its over. Whether we succeed or fail, we’ll have to live and die with the consequences of our choices.”

Indeed. I hope I am wrong, but I think we will F it up.

#94 Alphonse Berger on 11.22.20 at 9:48 am

Snowbirds giving Trudeau “the finger”. Canadians flood into the US because no one respects Trudeau, particularly as he still allows flights from hot zones to pour into Canada without health checks. Maybe by spring the numbers of Canadian dead will indeed hit 20 thousand a week and the snowbirds move proves to be the smart move. The older generation once again shows Trudeau they won’t die on their knees.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/snowbirds-canada-u-s-border-drive-winter-travel-covid-19-1.5810104?fbclid=IwAR3EBX1w3cl_Ks-4itqoNRIdrudWSlR8hvTJc3lxdExOuqLfCahzBEaTDi0

Nobody ‘pours into Canada without health checks.’ There is universal screening and a mandatory 14-day quarantine period. – Garth

#95 Penny Henny on 11.22.20 at 9:53 am

#70 joblo on 11.21.20 at 9:30 pm
Can’t wait, when the restaurants reopen,
“Waiter, I’ll have the bat soup”
////////////

One of the best lines ever from Norm at ‘Cheers’
– turtle soup and make it snappy

#96 Ryan Lewenza on 11.22.20 at 10:11 am

Dharma Bum “In the long run, the markets go up.
Invest today, reap the benefits in the future.
Delay gratification.
Don’t be overly indulgent.
Covid, and other events, will temporarily muddy the waters, but society will ultimately prevail.
Those that are patient, disciplined, and stay the course will be fine over time.
Those that are overly reactive to short term events will be sorry.”

I couldn’t have said it any better! Bang on! – Ryan L

#97 Penny Henny on 11.22.20 at 10:16 am

#87 George S on 11.22.20 at 8:12 am
#84 Phylis said:
“You could add the cost of running your crazy setting timer. Let’s say it uses 5watts.”

I was scrolling down to comment on Penny Henny’s post but you did it for me.

However you thought of something that I didn’t.

By having the lights on a timer, likely a mechanical one run with a small electric gear motor you would be using more electricity than you save by trying to save the electricity.
///////////

I put the lights on at 4 pm or so and don’t turn them off till the next morning. The plug is outside and it is not switched, so if I were to do it late at night I would most likely be waking up my wife who is most likely asleep.
The other benefit of having them on all night is the lights are all situated on a small tree which is between where I park my two vehicles so it also acts as a deterrent to any theft etc because it is well lit up.

#98 Ryan Lewenza on 11.22.20 at 10:17 am

Cheekmonster “The markets respond well to gridlock. if the Democrats take the Senate there will likely be a bigger stimulus but there were also be many other changes especially to tax code. Overall the market will not react well to them winning the Senate. Gridlock is best for the next two years until mid terms.”

Agree with this. Historically a split government with Democrat president has seen the best stock returns. My comment on the US election outcome and the size of the stimulus speaks more to the shorter term and market impact. Meaning, if the Dems have all 3 chambers of congress then we’re looking at a larger stimulus package and potentially higher stock prices in the shorter term. – Ryan L

#99 Penny Henny on 11.22.20 at 10:21 am

This blog is not a forum for anti-vaccine comments, nor will it host a debate on public health initiatives such as mask-wearing. All submissions on these topics will be deleted.=GT
///////////////////

are we still allowed to deny climate change.

And that makes 100.

#100 NoName on 11.22.20 at 10:36 am

#93 MF on 11.22.20 at 9:04 am
#43 SWL on 11.21.20 at 6:01 pm

These comments so steeped in irrational fear are hilarious.

The dollar has been gaining on the USD for months. Has anyone noticed? Doesn’t mean it will continue forever but in a world where currencies are compared to each other, and everyone is doing the same thing, what would trigger a sell off?

(This is where someone mentions Venezuela or Zimbabwe).

If anything expect the opposite as the demand for oil is set to explode in the future, and we could see some inflation and interest rate hikes -bullish for the cad.

MF

You are reading that chart wrong, its not that cad is up its that us is down. Ever since march cad “gained” on usd, but never recovered any ground on euro, and its around same levels as it was in march.
And same applys to usd agains euro just difference is that usd lagged two months and started its descent in may against euro and other important curencies.

https://imgur.com/a/lIQXt9P

#101 DON on 11.22.20 at 10:56 am

The least i can do today is to punt Ryan over the 100 comments mark.

#102 kc on 11.22.20 at 11:04 am

96 Alphonse Berger on 11.22.20 at 9:48 am

“Canadian dead will indeed hit 20 thousand a week”

100% pure fear mongering and based on nothing more than over hyped algorithms … Change the station, I am in the twilight zone

#103 Doug in London on 11.22.20 at 11:26 am

We’re not anywhere near being over this crisis yet, so if there’s another pull back in stocks I’ll treat it as a buying opportunity. The governor responds to a drop in speed by giving the engine more fuel/air mixture to produce more power.
Anti vaccine comments? Bah, humbug! As soon as it’s available here in the Forest City I’ll go for it. If it’s available somewhere nearby like Sarnia, I’ll be on that 402 highway so fast I’ll be breaking windows with the sonic boom.

#104 Phylis on 11.22.20 at 11:38 am

Are we there yet? Go Ryan go!

#105 Phylis on 11.22.20 at 11:43 am

#99 Penny Henny on 11.22.20 at 10:16 am
#87 George S on 11.22.20 at 8:12 am
#84 Phylis said:
“You could add the cost of running your crazy setting timer. Let’s say it uses 5watts.”

I was scrolling down to comment on Penny Henny’s post but you did it for me.

However you thought of something that I didn’t.

By having the lights on a timer, likely a mechanical one run with a small electric gear motor you would be using more electricity than you save by trying to save the electricity.
///////////

I put the lights on at 4 pm or so and don’t turn them off till the next morning. The plug is outside and it is not switched, so if I were to do it late at night I would most likely be waking up my wife who is most likely asleep.
The other benefit of having them on all night is the lights are all situated on a small tree which is between where I park my two vehicles so it also acts as a deterrent to any theft etc because it is well lit up.

——
Well now, a timer with a dusk/dawn setting will have a long payback.

Snowin’ across southern Ontario at the moment, maybe that will float a few more comments as 100 is in the rearview mirror.

#106 espressobob on 11.22.20 at 11:49 am

Corrections are a contrarians best friend especially the one earlier this year.

What to do with all that profit?

It’s rough being an oddball.

#107 MF on 11.22.20 at 11:55 am

#102 NoName on 11.22.20 at 10:36 am

I am not reading anything wrong. I said exactly as you said, in that the cad has gained versus the usd. It is a currency pair. So it is relative to one another.

My response to the statement by the other poster still stands too. The cad won’t collapse or be worth nothing, which is what was implied. We won’t become Venezuela and Zimbabwe either. Whenever the economy opens up the cad will spike, and so will the usd. Every other “important currency” has worse problems to worry about than north america.

MF

#108 millmech on 11.22.20 at 12:32 pm

#96
Garth
We have techs come to our plant after arrival, do the modifications/changes and are gone the next day.

#109 CalgaryCarGuy on 11.22.20 at 12:48 pm

Re #11 dogwhistle
The days of petrol are numbered (like it or not) except for certain chemicals and aviation fuel
——————————————————————
Yeah, right! Get a grip. There is no friggin way I’m going to freeze to death in an electric car in a Canadian winter, period. I can see a place for them in mild weather conditions as a commuter vehicle for short to moderate distances but that’s about it. As a second car. Think about it people. In our cold northern climate with short days of sunlight in the winter we use EVERY electrical device on a vehicle already without relying on electricity for heat as well. Coming up in the next month or so you will be stuck in a traffic jam at -20 or colder. When you are comfy in your ICE vehicle it’s not that big a deal to wait it out. In an EV your time will be very limited. I worked in the car repair business for over 40 years. People like to be HOT in their vehicles in cold temperatures. Not just luke-warm or warm–HOT. Most people have their heater temp control set to max heat all the time. It’s human nature. Good luck with your EV. If they stop making ICE vehicles it will just make the old ones worth more.

#110 Lorne on 11.22.20 at 1:05 pm

#53 Thoughts on 11.21.20 at 7:24 pm
We are witnessing decisions being taken and policies beineing made, anywhere from never seen debt levels which will never be paid back, to environmental and social policies which will affect everyone not just for the next 5, 10, 20 years, but for multiple generations.
…then think of how and who is making these decisions – a man and a group of people who got 30-31% of the popular vote in this country, and that is 30% of the 70% of the eligible voters that shows up. So, every day, we are seeing people who received 30% * 70% = 21% approval of the entire voting public and yet, with a “mandate of 21%” they are making such consequential decisions that it should be an affront to everyone living in a democracy.

Down south they are being governed by someone who got maybe 48, maybe 49, 50% of the popular vote. We are being governed by a group who barely got a fifth of the eligible vote, just something to think about the state of our democracy, regardless of whether you agree with the policies.
……..
This is what you get in a country like Canada that has more than 2 parties and uses First Past the Post. I assume this would give you pause to support Proportional Representation. Otherwise, please stop complaining about %….that is the system in place right now…even though back in 2015, Trudeau promised us that that election would be that last one utilizing this system that is only fair if there are only 2 parties.

#111 Diamond Dog on 11.22.20 at 1:48 pm

#95 Sara on 11.22.20 at 9:47 am

I fear we already have. It doesn’t make our choices any less important from here on, choices are a reflection of our evolution, of who we are. Our evolution of soul is more important than the result. It had better be, as we’re living in a canvass that has been painted over and over again in this world, the bones of extinction are everywhere if only we dig for the truth. In this context of success and failure, what’s the saying, “life is not a zero sum game. When we recognize that our motive and effort is more important than the result, it is then that we know that we’ve grown.” – DD

But I digress, I fear there’s too much momentum forcing the warming Arctic we are seeing now. I fear the transition to EV’s and big green power are coming too late and its not just the tech side (still don’t have commercial big power storage yet), global populations are simply too high to be environmentally sustainable at least, in our current practices of consumption.

Governments the world over have encouraged population overshoots because its good economics. The problem is, the world’s economic systems have never factored in the environmental costs to so called endless growth. This should have been done decades ago, but the world’s largest economy (the U.S.) was plainly built on oil. (part of it is from ignorance, part of it is by design) It’s a flawed world economic system as a result, because humanity hasn’t learned to factor in environmental degradation within the economics of consumption, even at this late stage. As a consequence, the message of sustained global economic security is simply false.

In short, there’s too many of us, we’re inefficient, wasteful, often poorly led and misdirected, unaware, uneducated, gullible… governments for decades have failed to regulate polluters and reign in greed, encouraged wasteful consumption, turned a blind eye to environmental degradation and all the while, populations continue to grow because population growth for a time papers over economic problems.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that the seeds of our own destruction have been sown for decades now, at least 50 years or more and the momentum behind 50+ years worth of disastrous government choices are coming home to roost.

Sorry readers, not a glass half full kind of guy today but one can smile because? Life is not a zero sum game. :)

#112 Bdwy on 11.22.20 at 6:15 pm

D dog. “forcing the warming Arctic we are seeing now”

There is twice as much ice cover in the Antarctic as the Artcic. They are up up up over previous years and above the 1980-2020 band. Considering BOTH poles we seem relatively in balance.

Resume panic at your discretion.

Oh and the last few weeks were boffo for arctic ice formation. At this rate it will catch up to typical conditoons soon.

#113 Doug in London on 11.23.20 at 10:30 am

@espressobob, post #108:
Yes, being an oddball (contrarian, that is) has its ups and downs. On the upside, You can do well at investing, making profits while most people complain about how much money they lost, real or imagined. On the downside, you find a lot of people don’t understand you and see you as being, as you said, an oddball. I believe that a lot of people don’t see the opportunities we oddball types see, and lose out. In response they will vote in some populist like Trump with who says he will right all the “wrongs” of society.

@CalgaryCarGuy, post #111:
For the most part you’re right, but don’t completely dismiss electric cars as useless in winter weather. I recently saw a Youtube video of someone with a Tesla car on a cold -30 degree day in Saskatoon who used a phone app to turn on the electric interior heater so it was comfortable inside, got in, and drove off. No worrying about if the damn thing will start, away he went. The main drawback is the much shorter cruising range. That’s fine for around the city, but not much good for a trip from Calgary to Saskatoon, or Timmins (where I have lived) to North Bay at -30 degrees.