After the deluge

This week BMO (which flogs mortgages) says this will be a boffo year for real estate.

Hard to argue that. Just look at inventory. Across the country there’s but a 2.5 month supply of houses for sale. In a bunch of major centres, just four weeks or less. This is historic. Listings have shrunk while demand has swelled. Sales and prices have belied the fact life sucks. So many people have been so willing to get so much in debt when things are so bad. History may show they were courageous, or just nuts. Let’s wait and see.

Meanwhile, what happens next?

We know the big trends so far…

  • Covid killed condos. Renters retreated as urban jobs vanished. Airbnb croaked and investors are bailing. Eviction bans and rent controls spanked landlords. And as elevators became mobile chambers of death, owners bolted.
  • So city rents have fallen, about 15% on average. Condo prices have dropped, and continue to do so. No bottom yet.
  • Nesting, WFH, that new puppy and the need to social distance from your spouse led to a big rush into detached housing. Anything with dirt and a door to the street has been an object of desire.
  • The virus also made sane people have delusional thoughts, like they’d never need to commute again. Hence the exodus to the burbs, the sticks, the hinterland and beyond. For example, sales/price increases in the vacuous wasteland of the 905 now routinely eclipse those of the urban 416. Porches have been beaten into Pacificas.
  • Household debt has plumped as mortgage rates hit bottom. Once again cheap money allowed average home prices to jump. Lost on many has been the fact emergency rates are with us because, ahem, we have an emergency.

So, here we are a few weeks from the dawn of 2021. The virus is ripping us a new one. But, thankfully, we’re a lot closer to herd immunization now that at least two vaccines have been proven effective and safe. (BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.)

What could the potential end of the pandemic mean for housing?

Assuming most people are jabbed by this time next year, we can make several assumptions. First, the economy will be far, far better. The virus damage will still be evident in many failed businesses, but the vax will have allowed investment to reappear amid increased confidence. Folks will be flying around in Max 737s. Going on cruises. Eating out. Watching games and concerts. And, yes, going to work.

Downtowns will rekindle and repopulate. We’ll remember why people want to live in close proximity to great restaurants, clubs, arenas, theatres, galleries and stores. Offices will reopen in stages. The giant buildings will adapt. Workers will be expected back on a rotational basis, if not full-time. WFH will go back to being a some-time reality, not the norm. Commuting will be a thing again.

Condo prices and rents will be higher in 2022 than they are now. Probably by a lot. The suburbs will retain their price increases, but lose their appeal to the masses. As the GDP expands and the impact of government over-borrowing is felt in the bond market, yields and mortgage rates will increase. The days of 1.5% loans will be gone, gone. Interest levels will not explode, but the price of a home loan could easily double. In the Roaring Twenties prediction comes to pass, we’ll be headed much higher.

The bottom line is that Covid made most housing less affordable. The vaccine to kill Covid will probably do the same. We will emerge from this with real estate even more of an acute symbol of the wealth divide in our society. That’s been bolstered by the reality of 2020 – wherein the bulk of job losses were among those in essential or lower-income jobs, while the white collar WFH bourgeoisie just went online, got a fat mortgage and moved to a ranch bung in Mississauga.

None of this is healthy for society. We become less diversified. More indebted. Less liquid. More immobile. The young are disenfranchised. Wealth is consolidated. And governments have a far better idea of where to go for the new tax revenue they so desperately need in a post-Covid world.

More on this, soon.

 

252 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 11.20.20 at 1:56 pm

2 comments/day is enough. Not much more to add these days. People slowly getting it, this winter is shaping up to be perhaps the final attack on our minds and way of life.
#172 Sky nailed it yesterday: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/11/19/duty/#comment-749823

— Manitoba orders non-essentials covered up to trigger fear and Kommunist Style rationing. 4 your health.
Let’s see the jails fill with the small business owners who dare sell you a ‘non essential’.
Nothing fun or frivolous allowed in the new system Comdrades.

“Manitoba Walmart – non essential goods are covered”
https://twitter.com/Patriotgirl2023/status/1329662696158060544

— Just Lockdown and Eat and Work. That will be this winter. Many will not survive. In fact it’s as if they are wishing us away….is this predictive programming? Wait I thought we were destroying society, business to SAVE Grandma’s life?

“Facing another retirement home lockdown, 90-year-old seeks medically assisted death” https://ctvnews.ca/health/facing-another-retirement-home-lockdown-90-year-old-seeks-medically-assisted-death-1.5197140?

— Dunno my UBI-o-meter just notched a new level

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/19/936329130/12-million-to-lose-jobless-benefits-the-day-after-christmas-unless-congress-acts
“Stettner says two important federal pandemic jobless relief programs have been a lifeline for people such as Anderson who have exhausted their state unemployment benefits or didn’t qualify.
But with Congress stuck in a months-long stalemate over another relief bill, these programs are set to expire.”

#2 Underwriting on 11.20.20 at 2:18 pm

What do we think? Hinterland keeps prices gains even as rates increase, demand lessens, and maybe a potential capital gains increase on property values?

#3 Flop... on 11.20.20 at 2:22 pm

One for old times sake, Garth.

Vancouver detached housing update.

Flop style.

Rough and ready.

I mentioned the other day how detached properties in my hood have been going roughly 20% over ask/assessment as people seemingly escape condos and leap onto the second rung of the detached ladder in Vancouver City proper.

People are paying a premium to get a turn-key residence, in a half-decent hood, while project properties and properties that need bulldozing are being all but shunned.

Here are some recent sales to relay that point.

One on the infamous Turner St. where other listings median asking price is 1.6 million, was asking 999k but could only muster 900k.

A place on Moss St that was asking 1.4 in 2019 went for a flat million, 400k less than original ask down the bottom because it needs work.

Another place on 41st avenue was asking 1.04 million sold for 860k.

This trend is continuing with developers largely sitting on their hands with a recent listing on Salsbury Drive for 819k, mainly for lot value, all this is happening in a city where the average property value, condos, townhouses and detached is 1.35 million.

There’s sweat equity to be earned in Vancouver, but the shift from condos to detached doesn’t seem to be involving too much sitting down with a screwdriver, mostly sitting down with a person at the bank.

Please Sir, can I have more…

M46BC

#4 mark on 11.20.20 at 2:35 pm

Last time I checked it was not against any law to not be vaccinated.
Show me your papers!!

#5 Party on Garth on 11.20.20 at 2:35 pm

LONDON — The coronavirus crisis pushed global debt levels to a new high of over $272 trillion in the third quarter, the Institute for International Finance said, as it warned of the “attack of the debt tsunami.”

Among advanced nations, debt surged above 432% of GDP in the third quarter — a 50 percentage points increase from 2019. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/19/coronavirus-drives-global-debt-to-a-new-record-high.html

#6 Lisa Campbelford on 11.20.20 at 2:41 pm

Our office in Aurora has decided to break the lease agreement. Everyone is WFH permanently. A medium sized company in financial sector.

My friend is at another medium sized company in IT, they had 3 offices, now 2 of them are permanently closed (Markham and Mississauga) the only one left is in DT Toronto.

My guess is that a lot of people will be able to relocate to Marmora permanently.

#7 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 11.20.20 at 2:45 pm

If you get a nice house it means you have won at life.

#8 KAC on 11.20.20 at 2:48 pm

As a long time Vancouver home owner I am dismayed at the socially corrosive effect of current real estate prices.

I would be happy to see prices slide substantially, however it does seem like a Catch-22 situation. Who should be hurt the most, recent buyers or those who are locked out of the market? What a sorry mess.

As humerous aside, my girlfriend has started calling herself my “Wife Elect” despite me insisting that I will not formerly decide on marriage until December 14th

I hear Biden wants a recount on his age. He turned 78 today. – Garth

#9 S.O on 11.20.20 at 2:50 pm

People buy mortgage payments not houses, so when the interest rates go up I have a feeling that the suburbs will have a price change.

#10 Catalyst on 11.20.20 at 2:54 pm

What a cliff hanger! One of my fav parts of this blog is the odd heads up on some new gov’t scheme you have insight into.

#11 Keith on 11.20.20 at 2:59 pm

@#3 Flop

Beware outliers: The property you cite on Turner Street was 32 x 66 feet, little more than half the standard 33 x 120 in Vancouver. The one on Salisbury was 33 x 50. On a per square foot basis, they went for a lot more money than an East Van tear down on a standard lot in those neighbourhoods.

The one on Salisbury street was a block from the Drive, a standard lot there would be 1.5 million all day long. The one on Turner street was in the heart of Hastings village, so at least 1.4 million for that neighbourhood for a standard size lot.

Vancouver land prices live and die on developable square footage. All of the east side is zoned duplex, most will allow a lane way house on a standard lot. Factor in location, lane access and whether or not they are on a corner and you can see how one house is being replaced by up to five units where the creme de la creme fear to tread.

The examples you cited have very limited developable square footage, yet still command a per square foot premium over a standard lot. East van SFH from 1.2 – 1.8 still hotter than a pistol … for now.

#12 willworkforpickles on 11.20.20 at 3:03 pm

A spike in-mortgage arrears, as its referred to after 90 days of non payment from the expiration of deferrals in October is coming in January 2021. A spike in housing stock listings pre-dating this is likely in December. Foreclosures could be many…very many in the Spring with good buying ops in the Summer.
The virus could mutate or other forms surfacing could pose new challenges for scientists if these vaccines have only limited effect because of these potential threats.
Not to intentionally rain on the Boffo nature of today’s subject matter – but…hmmm, that word…Boffo…Garth used that word a lot in the good times of the mid to late eighties as a Toronto Sun columnist.

#13 Linda on 11.20.20 at 3:08 pm

Here is what I’m wondering. If people are taking on epic debt to purchase RE ‘with dirt’, can they still be considered ‘rich’? After all, they presumably have borrowed $ & while interest rates are at epic lows there is still interest accumulating on that epic debt. Plus lots of folks have more than just mortgage debt. Credit cards are definitely not charging under 3% interest on outstanding balances.

So if housing prices do indeed go down at some point, seems quite possible that all those ‘rich’ RE owners are actually, um, not rich. Especially if they can’t sell that over priced asset they purchased for anything near what they paid for it. Or at all. Eek!

#14 Vik on 11.20.20 at 3:08 pm

More on this, soon – add ‘pay-by-the-mile’ road pricing scheme to the list of usual suspects. In the name of
electrification, road pricing might even be extended to
regular gas vehicles.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/16/road-pricing-could-offset-loss-of-fuel-duty-from-electric-cars

#15 Penny Henny on 11.20.20 at 3:20 pm

(BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.)

//////////////////

Nice day for a troll, isn’t it.

#16 Old Ron on 11.20.20 at 3:21 pm

Agree for the most part Garth.

I think a 15% pop in RE prices is possible as we get further into Q1 (speaking of the 416 here). Starting with single family dwellings, and then Condos joining the party by Q3. June is going to be like VE Day on Yonge St. I think even old Ron will join that party.

Possible glitches:

1) The price of Oil. WTI @ $60-70 is possible, when world consumption exceeds 100 mb/d once again. That means inflation, showing up by Q3. The traditional cures for inflation, higher rates, tightening monetary policy, are not great for real estate prices. But that is for the second half of the year.

I realize that talk of oil is so 20th Century, but spikes in oil have historically meant inflation and recession. In fact the Covid 19 recession is the only notable exception to this rule in some time.

Inflation will also be augmented by the hang over from massive Central bank stimulus, as well as record savings rates by individual Canadians. When Covid ends folks will be treating themselves. Too many loonies chasing too few goods and services is also inflationary.

#17 N on 11.20.20 at 3:22 pm

“Condo prices and rents will be higher in 2022 than they are now. Probably by a lot. The suburbs will retain their price increases, but lose their appeal to the masses.”

Don’t know where Condo renters will get the funds to pay for higher rents. Perhaps there will be substantial income increases in the year to come…..
Or renters might begin to share their condos/basements…..
Or renters might tap into their life savings and lines of credit to pay for their new rent…..

#18 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 11.20.20 at 3:23 pm

I agree that vaccination while not mandated by law will happen for everyone who wants to travel, get life insurance a.s.o so practically everyone but the most “individual rights and freedom dedicated activist individuals “.
As for real estate it is the usual trap : make the masses buy the most they can afford ( and there will be individuals overextended) with a short term outlook then tax them into oblivion.
Show them the carrot ( students and tourists will return, WFH is forever,same as your job) and they will follow.

#19 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.20.20 at 3:23 pm

I think there are many fans of Margaret Thatcher here.
The latest instalment (4) of “Crown” on Netflix is featuring her prominently.
Worth watching. Great acting.

#20 Sunshine on 11.20.20 at 3:28 pm

Hi Garth,
Would you consider doing a column about retiring during the pandemic? My big choice – leave or stay with Government of Alberta. I turn 55 at the end of January – so can take my commuted value (around $400,000) at 55 – or I can stay in the DB pension and work and hope I don’t get shown the door. I have more than $400,000 in TFSA and RRSPs, house is paid for ($450,000 ish). I would want work doing something else – but who knows what the economy will do. I know you always say take the money and run – but these are odd times and I need your sage advice. Thanks a million!

#21 The Woosh on 11.20.20 at 3:35 pm

No prediction on where stock portfolios are going? Both real estate and stock portfolios are going up in tandem. City centres are not going anywhere. Why would they? They’ve proven themselves to be the rat’s nests that they are…they had their time. We enjoyed our time living in Yorkville but we won’t be back. Vaccine or no vaccine, most regular people aren’t going back to that lifestyle.

#22 Flop... on 11.20.20 at 3:35 pm

Who ya gonna call?

Flopbusters!

More examples needed, I can see.

A recent sale on a 134ft deep block on 44th Ave ( 0.10 acres) could only muster 1.16m in a nieghbourhood where the median selling price is nearly 1.7 million.

Why?

Because it was boarded up.

Developers are proceeding cautiously.

Hipsters want turn-key.

What to do?

Pay a 20% premium to ward off the competition, as previously stated.

The one on Bushcombe will likely get the juices flowing too.

Asking 988k, livable. 33×100 lot

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/8138-buscombe-street

Also there is a over size 66 ft x 106 ft (0.16 acre) lot on Boundary Rd for 999k.

Someone trying to get their money back after paying 909k in early 2019.

Hang on, toasted sandwich is starting to smoulder…

M46BC

#23 Yukon Elvis on 11.20.20 at 3:38 pm

And governments have a far better idea of where to go for the new tax revenue they so desperately need in a post-Covid world.
…………………

Here is Argentina’s idea of where to go for the tax revenue:

Argentina’s lower house is expected to approve a bill to introduce a one-off capital levy on more than 9,000 of the country’s wealthiest citizens this morning.
The proposal, backed by President Alberto Fernández’s government, will see individuals with more than US$2.5 million in assets make an “Extraordinary Solidarity Payment,” paying a one-off levy. State coffers running low amid the coronavirus pandemic and officials are hoping the tax could rake in upwards of US$3 billion.
The so-called “wealth tax” or “millionaire’s tax” bill – which the opposition criticised as “confiscatory” – looks to have the necessary support to pass through the lower house. It will face a tougher time in the Senate, which will likely consider it before the end of the month, with the Frente de Todos coalition needing allies to support it.

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/lower-house-opens-debate-on-governments-wealth-tax-bill.phtml

#24 David Hawke on 11.20.20 at 3:41 pm

They`ll have to vaccinate my `cold dead body`!

#25 Rook on 11.20.20 at 3:45 pm

“BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.”

Genuinely curious what you mean by this Garth.

Do I not have the right to consent to a medical procedure? I’m not saying I won’t get it – got all my other jabs, as per government orders – I’m just saying consent means I get to say no.

You’re not honestly advocating we make covid vaccines government-mandated, by law, are you?

#26 Dogman01 on 11.20.20 at 3:46 pm

Inheritance not work, is main route to middle class home ownership.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/09/inheritance-work-middle-class-home-ownership-cost-of-housing-wages

Blizzare society we are creating, Have ad had nits based on birth lottery.

Pick your parents well.

#27 Captain Uppa on 11.20.20 at 3:47 pm

LOCKDOWN Partie Deux for Toronto and Peel.

“Do not panic buy” … I’m sure people will listen *rolls eyes*

#28 Comrade on 11.20.20 at 3:51 pm

I hear Biden wants a recount on his age. He turned 78 today. – Garth

Why would anyone at that age want a high stress job and all this drama? Same for Trump, he is not much younger either. beats me.

#29 Guelph Guru on 11.20.20 at 3:51 pm

“The suburbs will retain their price increases”

So real estate has turned out to be the safest asset. It went up when the economy was healthy. It went up in a recession. Will stay up when the rates rise.
Sounds like a perfect investment.
I guess all realtors are going to bookmark this post as a promo advertisement :)

#30 TurnerNation on 11.20.20 at 3:55 pm

The Business of sports:

It’s all lining up: CFL cancelled, Blue Jays and now Raptors banned from the country. Do not doubt this destruction of culture and the Old System.

“The Raptors will call Tampa home after federal government pitch strikes out”
https://www.thestar.com/sports/raptors/2020/11/20/the-raptors-have-been-shut-out-by-the-federal-government-and-need-a-temporary-home-in-the-us-fast.html?

………………
#47 TurnerNation on 09.24.20 at 2:22 pm
The business of sports and that zany prediction – one of many for the New System – from the late 60s that only Soccer would remain.

Recap:
– Toronto’s baseball team banned from the country.
– CFL football league was shut down
– NBA players already staged a work strike/stoppage

They’ve been driving fans away via use of propaganda – not sports. Watch this story – Hockey:

https://twitter.com/mikeinboston/status/1308909651
837280256

“”Sportsnet has confirmed Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final between the Stars and the Lightning drew an average audience of only 1.081 million on Saturday night. In Game 2, on Monday night, the audience shrank to 841,000.”

#31 baloney Sandwitch on 11.20.20 at 4:03 pm

Great column. We are still in the deluge, not after. Toronto is going into lockdown. Small Businesses will fall like flies in a blizzard. The government is doing its best, but there is a limit to everything. The only thing left is to tax the fortunate and property owners or we will be facing a breakdown of society. Socialism is better than civil war.

#32 Leftover on 11.20.20 at 4:04 pm

“governments have a far better idea of where to go for the new tax revenue they so desperately need”

That’s where the money (wealth) is, a la Willie Sutton

Will Trudeau make the next election about taxing capital gains on principal residences? Not likely, but that’s what he’ll do if he wins. And about time too.

#33 Northshore guy on 11.20.20 at 4:04 pm

Never thought I will see you saying real estate will go up Garth. But I guess that’s the reality.

And whatever happened to deferral cliff?

Anyways, an update from our old street, a house that sat unloved at 1.8m in 2019 was recently sold for 2.5m in a bidding war. They had new roof this summer and did professional gardening. So I guess that justifies 700k.

Oh and yes they had deferred their mortgage while both husband and wife were employed at a well known tech giant.

I think not buying what we can thinking it will be irresponsible was the real insanity.

#34 Tim Tuti on 11.20.20 at 4:08 pm

Leftover, it is about time we get rid of public sector pensions with a 75% pension tax on your LIRA, LRIF, LIF and other transfers and other pension values. This is about time.

#35 Abolitionist on 11.20.20 at 4:09 pm

Forced vaccination is a violation of the Geneva Convention, Nuremberg Code, and Universal Declaration on Bioethics and Human Rights:

https://en.unesco.org/themes/ethics-science-and-technology/bioethics-and-human-rights

Article 6 – Consent

1. Any preventive, diagnostic and therapeutic medical intervention is only to be carried out with the prior, free and informed consent of the person concerned, based on adequate information. The consent should, where appropriate, be express and may be withdrawn by the person concerned at any time and for any reason without disadvantage or prejudice.

2. Scientific research should only be carried out with the prior, free, express and informed consent of the person concerned. The information should be adequate, provided in a comprehensible form and should include modalities for withdrawal of consent. Consent may be withdrawn by the person concerned at any time and for any reason without any disadvantage or prejudice. Exceptions to this principle should be made only in accordance with ethical and legal standards adopted by States, consistent with the principles and provisions set out in this Declaration, in particular in Article 27, and international human rights law.

3. In appropriate cases of research carried out on a group of persons or a community, additional agreement of the legal representatives of the group or community concerned may be sought. In no case should a collective community agreement or the consent of a community leader or other authority substitute for an individual’s informed consent.

#36 Phylis on 11.20.20 at 4:11 pm

Well, covid has put a dent in revenues, so we can expect more tax to pay not only for the past but new environmental activities. Reducing fuel consumption via ev’s will be good for the environment but bad for revenues, something will have to be done to makeup that difference too. Hmm, what to tax, what to tax? So many options. 1. Carbon tax goes up, done deal. 2. Electricity taxes must be increased. 3. Tax people for exhaling, just gotta convert the masks to meters. Problem solved.

#37 Jack Quinny on 11.20.20 at 4:12 pm

We need a 7% minimum mortgage rates, a 9% minimum annual mortgage payments on all properties from principal residences to other real estate properties. It is about time to weed out the real estate, debt junkies.

#38 Hookshott on 11.20.20 at 4:14 pm

#25 Rook on 11.20.20 at 3:45 pm
“BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.”

Genuinely curious what you mean by this Garth.

Do I not have the right to consent to a medical procedure? I’m not saying I won’t get it – got all my other jabs, as per government orders – I’m just saying consent means I get to say no.

You’re not honestly advocating we make covid vaccines government-mandated, by law, are you?
………
It will be like masks are in many places now….if you want to go in, you will have to wear a mask. If you want your kids to attend school in person, they will have to be vaccinated. If you want to get on an airplane, you will have to be vaccinated….etc

#39 Doug t on 11.20.20 at 4:15 pm

The next 5 months are going to be epic – keep your powder dry

#40 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 11.20.20 at 4:18 pm

“(BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.)”

Or WHAT???

They can’t even get 250 million Americans to wear masks or social distance. State Governors won’t even mandate it.

2nd Amendent is a powerful tool.

#41 willworkforpickles on 11.20.20 at 4:19 pm

Don’t give the government any ideas about making getting vaccinated the law to be booosted every 90 days at $30 a pop just to twist another $4 billion yearly from the pockets of Canadians.

#42 Keith on 11.20.20 at 4:22 pm

@22 Flop Killarney, South Vancouver and Boundary Road are cheaper than the Drive or Hastings Village, Main Street, Fraser Street Renfrew, Renfrew Heights, Mount Pleasant, Strathcona (before the tents moved in). Location Location Location matters, you pay more for downtown proximity.

#43 Tulips on 11.20.20 at 4:29 pm

The suburbs will retain their price increases, but lose their appeal to the masses.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This statement sounds too self contradicting. If the suburbs hold their prices they must be holding their appeal, otherwise nobody would be buying at those prices.

#44 Jordan on 11.20.20 at 4:32 pm

In regards to vaccinations, the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms states:

“Everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of the person and the right not to be deprived thereof except in accordance with the principles of fundamental justice.”

A mandatory vaccine policy goes against our Freedoms and Rights. It’s repulsing to see you openly opposed to the Freedoms and Rights guaranteed to each Canadian.

Covid vax will, in essence, be mandatory since society will demand it. You’ll never get an insurance policy, for example, while being susceptible to infection. Or travel. Think about it. Nobody will want to take the risk. So why not get jabbed? – Garth

#45 Calgary rip off on 11.20.20 at 4:32 pm

Houses for sale in Hidden Valley Calgary NW actually are selling for less. A house for sale now will be less than the listing price in 2011. There are numerous houses for sale and because my wife cant stand the traffic and kitchen where I live she is always looking. There are many ejections going on in the community likely due to the Covid forced government transition(looking at some data the Pangolin covid strain is very similar to Covid 19 except covid 19 has some PRAA sequences which only couldve emerged from a lab, according to JFK jr some Wuhan scientists got angry when Trump fired them in 9/2019 and released said virus so they could secure new employment thru vaccine work). This transition is being forced on small business owners. The entire mess could be helped with also recommending vitamin D3 and C by Dr. Tam.

Vaccines: Yes when they are shown safe and effective. Minimal data. Do I want one? Yes, once there is enough data to show they are safe. I will let my coworkers I work with go first. High ranking doctors I work with at this point are hesitant for said vaccines.

#46 Bk on 11.20.20 at 4:32 pm

Guess I should buy a house before it’s too late. My guess is higher interest rates will bring higher house prices. Cause that’s they way things go these days.. fml

#47 dr talc on 11.20.20 at 4:33 pm

#35 Abolitionist on 11.20.20 at 4:09 pm
Forced vaccination is a violation of the Geneva Convention, Nuremberg Code, and Universal Declaration on Bioethics and Human Rights

and the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms- thank-you T1, ha ha

#48 Stan Brooks on 11.20.20 at 4:35 pm

GDP will rise again, big cities will be revitalized, endless prosperity all around and rates will somehow increase…, sure.

Ah, and land will be flowing with milk and honey.

We forgot Amen at the end.

Cheers,

#49 kc on 11.20.20 at 4:41 pm

I find it so funny that a vaccination can be “found” so easily for a nano virus that will affect .1 % of the population, however they have spent 40 years trying to “cure” cancer and who knows how many BILLIONS of dollars in that industry, and all to no avail….

at this rate of “cures” and vaccinations, we all should live to 100 years old as no one will ever die from natural causes any more. they will just “find” a cure for old age.

so much PROPAGANDA …..

and yes i am killing you granny by not wearing a mask of suppression

#50 I'm Alright Jack on 11.20.20 at 4:41 pm

I believe that, despite all the deaths and economic ruin, Covid has actually done us a huge favour and there is a big silver lining. The technology for developing a brand new type of vaccine (using mRNA) has been developed – the vaccines have been developed in absolutely record breaking time.

If all goes well, this should allow biotech companies to develop similar vaccines for even deadlier viruses in the future (Covid is highy transmittable, but not that deadly – the next one (and there certainly will be a next one) could be much more deadly).

So look at the positives with this. SARS didn’t cause enough of a problem to allow full development of the new biotechnologies. Covid did. And that’s a good thing in a time where our existing antibiotics and antiviral drugs are running out if steam.

Often it is the times of strife (like war) where we humans develop world-changing technologies. I see this as one of those times and, in the end, mankind (personkind?) may be better off for it.

(I am not downplaying the horrendous loss of lives, or the economic devastation that this virus has caused – but just sayin’. There – I feel better now and will toast life with a nice Irish whiskey)

#51 bdwy sktrn on 11.20.20 at 4:43 pm

East van SFH from 1.2 – 1.8 still hotter than a pistol … for now.
——————-
you are a bit behind. those were summer prices. unless you are talking lot value only.

here off the drive…just sold for 2.1m, single story, no suite, 33’lot , renovated oldtimer. been trying for 2 years at 2m. couldnt get it till now.

a story about that house… back in the day i did some handyman work helping out the elderly lady who lived there, alone except for a dog and several cats, all of whom used the inside of the house as a toilet. the stench was overpowering. got a nice reno about 5 yrs ago, but i’m still scared to go in there!

flop is exactly right about a BIG premium for anything in move in condition. dumps are unloved, but the developers still going full speed on duplexes (1.5-6/side)around here.

buy a dump for x, apply lipstick (spray everything white!), sell it for x+400k.

#52 bdwy sktrn on 11.20.20 at 4:53 pm

one other point ….

last week i was looking at the long list of taxes , fees and charges the govt. graciously accepts from us.

i felt like i was not giving enough.

thankfully, in the past 7 days , 3 brand new remedies for this pickle have been announced!

NEW TAX – for parking in front of your house in van.
NEW TAX – for driving into downtown van
NEW TAX – for owing a boat anywhere in canada

i have a feeling this is a tip of the iceberg thing.

maybe it’s time to pull the pin on the 604.

#53 Brian Ripley on 11.20.20 at 4:54 pm

“Across the country there’s but a 2.5 month supply of houses for sale. Garth

Yeah, on my Months of Inventory charts for the 6 biggest cities (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal) I use TOTAL listings and residential sales

http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html

… and Ottawa is currently the worst place to transact if you are a purchaser

#54 Andrewski on 11.20.20 at 4:55 pm

Speaking of deluge, here’s a true story (from the Sacramento Bee) about being all wet:

An alleged Ponzi-schemer, who faces charges relating to a $35 million fraud, attempted to escape the clutches of the law by fleeing in an underwater “sea scooter”.

Matthew Piercey, of Pala Cedro, California, has been charged with wire and mail fraud, money laundering and witness tampering. He is accused of raising the money through self-created investment companies Family Wealth Legacy and Zolla, using false and misleading statements about trading algorithms, liquidity of investments and the success of the companies’ trading strategies.

Piercey also allegedly tampered with several witnesses by discouraging them from responding to subpoenas related to the investigation.

According to a report in the Sacramento Bee, when FBI agents tried to arrest him on Monday, he fled in a pickup truck, going off-road twice, only to abandon the car and dive into a “frigid” Lake Shasta with an underwater “sea scooter”.

The “sea scooter”, a Yamaha 350Li submersible device, has a speed of around 4 miles per hour. Piercey stayed under water for 25 minutes until he resurfacing and was led away in handcuffs. A separate report, in The New York Times, said agents were waiting with dry clothes provided by his wife.

Authorities have also separately charged Kenneth Winton, of Oroville, California, with conspiracy to commit wire fraud. Piercey allegedly first recruited Winton as an investor, then had him assist with recruiting investor funds, and eventually gave Winton managing responsibilities at Zolla.

The pair stand accused of paying back investors around $8.8 million in Ponzi-like payments but of using the rest of the money for business as well as personal expenses, including two residential properties and a houseboat.

Reports said Piercey faces a maximum statutory penalty of 20 years as well as a fine of up to $250,000 or twice the gross gain or loss, whichever is greater, for each wire fraud and mail fraud count, and a further 20 years and a fine of up to $250,000 for each witness tampering count as well as an additional 20 years and a fine of up to $500,000 or twice the value of the property involved, whichever is greater, for each money laundering count.

Winton, meanwhile, faces a maximum statutory penalty of 20 years in prison as well as a fine of up to $250,000 or twice the gross gain or loss, whichever is greater.

#55 Dolce Vita on 11.20.20 at 4:55 pm

I hate to burst everyone’s VACCINE CURE HUMANITY meme but there is this one small SNAG:

PRODUCTION CAPACITY.

This from the World’s Largest Vaccine Manufacturer out of India:

“Not enough Covid vaccine for all until 2024, says biggest producer”

https://www.ft.com/content/a832d5d7-4a7f-42cc-850d-8757f19c3b6b

———-

US GAO has its doubts as well:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/11/gao-highlights-covid-vaccine-supply-chain-drug-transparency-issues

———-

1st video is some vacuous talking head stating the obvious; rather, watch the 2nd video of Swiss drugmaker Lonza’s Chairman Albert Baehny talking about the “big challenges” facing drugmakers like his when it comes to scaling up production.

“Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine maker identifies ‘big challenges’ to mass production”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/what-are-the-big-challenges-to-mass-producing-a-coronavirus-vaccine.html#close

———————

Not so fast on the party balloons, noise makers and Old Lang Syne for ME. My death is being prematurely reported.

Regards and in no rush to be eradicated,

S. L. Pathogen

PS:

I have still have much work to do, like maybe mutate, rendering your efforts to exterminate me a moot issue.

XOXO [ibid]

#56 Gasbag Boomer on 11.20.20 at 4:57 pm

Porches or Porsches?

#57 Tron Light on 11.20.20 at 5:03 pm

“(BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.)”

Whatever happened to ‘my body, my choice?’

#58 BlogDog123 on 11.20.20 at 5:09 pm

For those not getting their COVID vaccination, there’ll be various government ‘incentives’ (carrot or stick as needed) to prod you to get something needed to help society. Such as ‘you’re last in line for any government benefits or tax refund’. That’ll prod people in the right direction if I was the benevolent dictator of the vax/gov’t rules.

What ever happened to that NY religious sect that all got measles because they wouldn’t vaccinate?? Any consequences?

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/9/18068036/measles-new-york-orthodox-jewish-community-vaccines

#59 Handsome Ned on 11.20.20 at 5:09 pm

#26 Dogman01

Inheritance net worth, is a main route to middle class home ownership.

Most of the boomers parents have long since passed. Many of my boomer friends have complained that they have inherited sweet blank all. Some came from large families diluting the haul.

However the generation now in their late seventies and eighties are starting to pass. This generation did very well indeed, no depression, too young for ww2 and started work in boom times. I started full time work in the mid seventies at a unionized blue collar job. The veteran workers all owned real estate in Vancouver and nearby suburbs. Some owned multiple houses. Imagine a guy working a GM assembly line in Oshawa full time from 1960 to 2000. Probably worth over a million with a nice pension to boot.

A workmate 15 years my senior passed away 2 years ago. As a widower he sold his tear down Richmond house to a Chinese buyer for a million and died soon after. I would not be surprised if his only son entered the real estate market.

#60 Regjeg on 11.20.20 at 5:11 pm

Tax cap gains on sales of principal residences in cases when, for example:
1) the property was purchased within the preceding 24 months, and
2) the cap gain is >25%, and
3) the gain is exclusively a result of price escalation in the local RE market (i.e., is a windfall), and not due to improvements made to the property by the owner/seller.

Exempt from cap gains tax all sales where the seller has occupied the property as their principal residence for the preceding 10 or more years.

#61 Terry on 11.20.20 at 5:17 pm

Toronto going into a LOCK-DOWN for a minimum of 28 days starting Monday. Sucks to be a Torontonian these days. Get out of the cities when you can. Shared communal tightly packed in living sustainable communities are death traps now. Get your place in the sticks as fast as you can. Freedom, nature, fresh well water, gardens, forests, bonfires, friendly neighbors, no crime, no vagrants, no homelessness, no safe injection sites, NO MASKS, no lock-downs…………Life is good here.

#62 SoggyShorts on 11.20.20 at 5:18 pm

#58 Tron Light on 11.20.20 at 5:03 pm
“(BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.)”

Whatever happened to ‘my body, my choice?’
*******************
Despite how it seemed in my graduating class, pregnancy is not in fact contagious.

No shirt, No shoes, No shot, No service.
Wanna travel? Buy a boat.

#63 Abolitionist on 11.20.20 at 5:19 pm

What’s Luciferase?

What’s transfection?

What’s hydrogel?

What’s messenger RNA?

What’s a quantum dot tattoo?

#64 Rico on 11.20.20 at 5:22 pm

Absolutely it’ll be your choice to not get vaccinated.
Just like it’s your choice to only stay inside your house for the rest of your life. Enjoy.

#65 Dolce Vita on 11.20.20 at 5:22 pm

Thinking what you said yesterday about the next 2 months that there will be a lot of ups and downs in the market.

The way 2020 has gone, The Lost Year, no surprises there Garth.

I expect a lot more doom and gloom as people find out in the 1st half of 2021 they cannot have their miracle cure on queue like Amazon.

I think we will be lucky to see a return to “normal” in late Q3 or more likely Q4.

—————-

On Moderna doing well on the market, heck, I’d be investing in Dry Ice manufacturers/logistic firms since their vaccine needs -70 deg C storage and transport.

Devil in the Details as always.

No magic wand with the vaccines thanks to production capacities and supply chains.

It’s going to be a long grind well into 2021 before the vaccines can do their job PROVIDED enough get vaccinated to achieve HERD IMMUNITY and as of yet, nobody knows what that % of the population is, just guesses so far.

Insult to accident, enough have convinced themselves to not get vaccinated. You can’t win for losing and yup, just another COVID-19 day on Planet Earth.

#66 Prairie skeptic on 11.20.20 at 5:23 pm

(BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.)

Seems an odd thing to say. You don’t have to be vaccinated against anything else. Would you like to expand?

#67 45north on 11.20.20 at 5:24 pm

Folks will be flying around in Max 737s.

a man I know, knows a lot about the Max 737. When he says it’s okay, it’s okay. How could Boeing get itself so lost?

#68 Terry on 11.20.20 at 5:24 pm

“(BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.)”

As an aside, you cannot be forced to get vaccinated. It cannot be made mandatory. You have the right to refuse getting vaccinated.

#69 Camille on 11.20.20 at 5:27 pm

Garth, you’re hitting all the bases lately (modest opinion).
Today, I read UK to not allow new petrol cars after 2030 (hybrid till 2035). Then on BNN Canada journalist uses slogan “Build Back Better”. Thought it was Biden’s slogan, he uses it and others; I check and see its Canadian also. David Suzuki says this along with “De-Globalize, De-Industrialize, and De-Mechanize”.
Whoah, what’s happening, I didn’t get those emails. No wonder there’s a fight.
Please help us navigate truth from fiction. Book soon? I mean next week?

#70 Keith on 11.20.20 at 5:31 pm

@#52 bdwy sktrn

From a Facebook bear market group, nine recent sales. All over asking. All over 2020 assessed value. 7/9 over 2019 assessed value. Structure values range from 24k to 215k. Couple of outlier locations, but mostly decent. As I said, hotter than a pistol.

Move in ready homes in East Vancouver are probably three in twenty listings. The vast majority of listings are tear downs, been that way for years. A place sold by Gladstone high school in the spring, 29 years old, structure valued at $175,000. Torn down, replaced by a duplex and a laneway house. Move in ready is rare, redevelopment potential is in the pitch for almost all listings. SFH in Vancouver being torn down by the day, the money is in the dirt.

EAST VANCOUVER
2662 E 8th
Listed $1,388,000 Sold $1,545,000
3582 E Pender
Listed $1,238,000 Sold $1,320,000
5757 Lanark
Listed $1,378,000 Sold $1,422,000
1660 Kamloops
Listed $1,168,000 Sold $1,222,000
850 E 23rd
Listed $1,379,000 Sold $1,450,000
2677 Cambridge
Listed $1,299,000 Sold $1,450,000
1907 E 40th
Listed $1,279,000 Sold $1,425,000
3828 Nootka
Listed $1,499,000 Sold $1,551,000
4490 Perry
Listed $1,249,000 Sold $1,351,200

#71 Gpr on 11.20.20 at 5:31 pm

What wealth divide are you talking about? If you are referring to people in professions that might be impacted by COVID..I was chatting with a can driver on my way to Pearson last year. He advised me to buy a home right away when I told him I have been working in Toronto for 8 years but have been renting all along. He apparently has 4 properties around Toronto that he has rented out. COVID is not the only thing that’s causing wealth divide.. it’s policies that allow for rampant speculation, lax shadow lenders and a casino mentality..

#72 John Foster on 11.20.20 at 5:42 pm

What happens if the vaccine is safe and effective, but not long-lasting? It’s going to take a year to get us all vaccinated. What if a booster is required every 6 months? Even once a year and it becomes pretty unworkable in world-wide terms or even developed nations terms.

#73 OK, Doomer on 11.20.20 at 5:43 pm

My kids suggested that I watch the “South Park” Pandemic Special episode.

I got the feeling it was a documentary…….

#74 Tom on 11.20.20 at 5:44 pm

Since you’re feeling your inner Ms Cleo today can you also predict the Winning lotto max numbers tonight?

#75 Tripp on 11.20.20 at 5:46 pm

Nine months and over $300B after the first wave, we are asked to “continue the fight against covid” by continuing to follow exactly the same methods that obviously did not work in the first place.

#76 Shirl Clarts on 11.20.20 at 5:46 pm

#32 Leftover on 11.20.20 at 4:04 pm
“governments have a far better idea of where to go for the new tax revenue they so desperately need”

That’s where the money (wealth) is, a la Willie Sutton

Will Trudeau make the next election about taxing capital gains on principal residences? Not likely, but that’s what he’ll do if he wins. And about time too.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Of course he wouldn’t add that agenda to his platform. With >70% home ownership rate, no one would vote for that. I agree with you that it’s probably his next play, if re-elected.

But I disagree with it being “about time”. You obviously do not own your principal residence, but probably have a DB pension? I get it. we all want the outcome to suite our needs (or failings). Be careful what you wish for. If you lack both home ownership and DB pension, I’m afraid you are going to be working until the end. Or a very sad retirement.

#77 Earth to Justin the Tone Deaf on 11.20.20 at 5:53 pm

There should be a law requiring people in government who mandate lockdowns to give up their paycheques for the length of the lockdown.

We’d find out in a hurry if the lockdowns are a smart idea or not.

Justin can you hear me????!!!

#78 Steve French on 11.20.20 at 5:55 pm

Laughing at the blog dogs who look at Australia’s success in stopping Covid in its tracks and then claim there is no way that Canada could follow that approach because of vague references to geography.

(from yesterday)

“Australia is a continent. Ontario is a Province. We have very porous borders.”

– Yes, and Australia closed its inter-state borders and stopped most international arrivals.

“Australia can shut down entry just by not letting anyone get off of a boat or an airplane.”

– so Canada can’t do the same?

“There is a reason why Toronto is full of COVID cases. They come in by air.”

– yes, so stop inter-provincial travel.

Australia is currently in summer.

– Melbourne was in winter when that city was under lockdown

“South Australia has banned outdoor exercise and dog-walking for six days starting Thursday…”

– the dogs will get over it!

Seriously… the solutions are there. It’s not easy– quite painful in fact. But it’s very possible to get close to eradicating Covid.

The alternative is just to keep swinging back and forth between temporary lockdowns until a vaccine appears. More deaths, more economic damage.

Down here in Aussie land we are moving on.

Good luck Canada!

#79 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.20.20 at 5:59 pm

Covid vax will, in essence, be mandatory since society will demand it. You’ll never get an insurance policy, for example, while being susceptible to infection. Or travel. Think about it. Nobody will want to take the risk. So why not get jabbed? – Garth

I’m all for safe vaccines, but unless you’re advocating some Nazi style ship, the free market will accomodate the 50% of those who don’t want to “get jabbed”.

Lefties are too funny.

It’s all about risk, not ideology. – Garth

#80 Drinking on 11.20.20 at 6:01 pm

Like Dolce Vita mentioned; it will realistically take 3 to 4 yrs to vaccinate who choose to, by that time we could have Covid 23 or we will all be immune to it. Prayers to those who have perished and strength to those who are fighting this effing Virus! Stay safe!

#81 John in Mtl on 11.20.20 at 6:09 pm

#45 Jordan on 11.20.20 at 4:32 pm

“In regards to vaccinations, the Canadian Charter…”

So why not get jabbed? – Garth

It’s truly unbelievable that we even have to argue the dangers of being coerced to receive a rushed to production vaccine with BRAND NEW technology that has NEVER been tested for long term safety, created by notorious companies that are indemnified from liability.

Good. I get mine sooner. – Garth

#82 Monica George on 11.20.20 at 6:18 pm

Garth

You and your readers remind me of the nattering of people in boxcars on their way to Auschwitz.

Monica

Incredibly insensitive and ignorant comment. Go away. Do not return. – Garth

#83 Overheardyou on 11.20.20 at 6:19 pm

If the Government goes after indebted home owners at a time when interest rates could be rising, could it have a negative impact on home prices and the consumer economy?

Also, I guess the deferral cliff is moot?

#84 crossbordershopper on 11.20.20 at 6:33 pm

i think your expectation of a quick vaccine is not going to materialize. it takes time, they can come up with something, they say is 95% good, i dought that since I know Moderna fairly well, they are a development stage company, they have no factory no experience of manufacturing anything and you think when they promise 500 million to a billion little viles. sure, of course. on time. i just live in the real world, that things take time a longer time than expected and unaware consequences of those delays.
poor people are poorer with the virus(low paying jobs gone) and rich people make more via stocks and real estate so really virus this virus that its all same in the end, just a different story same end.
so if your parents give you a tone via death, good dont sqander it. i met some people who pissed theres away. and now there poor, i didnt know to laugh or cry for them. both actually.

#85 Teddy Freddy on 11.20.20 at 6:33 pm

Let them try and force vaccinate me. I’ve got a gun…….

Another day that I hate this blog. – Garth

#86 S.Bby on 11.20.20 at 6:38 pm

I’ll never fly in a 737 Max and as for getting injected with an unproven vaccine… well, you get the drift.

#87 Long-Time Lurker on 11.20.20 at 6:38 pm

NOVEMBER 20, 2020

COVID-19 reinfection unlikely for at least six months, study finds

By Kate Kelland

LONDON (Reuters) – People who’ve had COVID-19 are highly unlikely to contract it again for at least six months after their first infection, according to a British study of healthcare workers on the frontline of fight against the coronavirus pandemic.

The findings should offer some reassurance for the more than 51 million people worldwide who have been infected with the pandemic disease, researchers at the University of Oxford said.

“This is really good news, because we can be confident that, at least in the short term, most people who get COVID-19 won’t get it again,” said David Eyre, a professor at Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Population Health, who co-led the study.

Isolated cases of re-infection with COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, had raised concerns that immunity might be short-lived and that recovered patients may swiftly fall sick again.

But the results of this study, carried out in a cohort of UK healthcare workers – who are among those at highest risk of contracting COVID-19 – suggest cases of reinfection are likely to remain extremely rare.

“Being infected with COVID-19 does offer protection against re-infection for most people for at least six months,” Eyre said. “We found no new symptomatic infections in any of the participants who had tested positive for antibodies.”….

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-reinfection-idUSKBN28015L

#88 Mandria on 11.20.20 at 6:39 pm

Rents won’t be higher in 2022. Airbnb is gone, there’s massive condo supply coming into occupancy, and the tenant pool was financially devastated by covid. A transaction takes two parties and there is simply no ability to pay more without significant wage gains. Besides, why would someone come back to a low wage job in the city with cost of living so out of control, the people that left won’t be back for more of the same punishment. Either barriers to entry and cost of living will drop or they’ll stay gone.

#89 Long-Time Lurker on 11.20.20 at 6:40 pm

Scientist behind Japan’s successful Covid model now battles new surge as winter sets in

Hitoshi Oshitani’s ‘Three C’s’ approach — avoiding closed spaces, crowded places and close contact situations — had helped Japan avoid thousands of deaths without lockdown.

LISA DU
20 November, 2020 1:25 pm IST

Having mocked him at first for his theories on how the coronavirus spread, the world came to recognize the effectiveness of Japanese scientist Hitoshi Oshitani’s “Three C’s” approach to the pandemic: avoiding closed spaces, crowded places and close contact situations where the virus thrives.

It’s a strategy that’s helped Japan avoid thousands of deaths without a lockdown — but one that’s now being challenged with infections rapidly escalating as cold weather sets in. Oshitani fears the nation may not be ready.

“People’s concern is decreasing,” Oshitani, a virologist and infectious disease specialist, said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “We may see a sudden increase in severe cases and deaths.”

Oshitani has become a global ambassador of the “Japan Model” thanks to his prescient insight into how the virus was transmitted. While most public health experts focused on hand-washing and surface transmission, and other countries debated over wearing masks, as early as March Oshitani concentrated on tracking down clusters of infections and ensuring people avoid the Three C’s.

As a result, the virus toll in Japan has been a fraction of that in the U.S. and many European countries, even as life largely returned to normal. Japan has recorded around 124,000 cases in total and the country, which has the oldest population in the world, has faced fewer than 2,000 deaths….

https://theprint.in/world/scientist-behind-japans-successful-covid-model-now-battles-new-surge-as-winter-sets-in/548416/

#90 Love_The_Cottage on 11.20.20 at 6:47 pm

BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on
___________
Now we see why you allow all the trolls to post comments. We bow to the king of trolls.

Just a fact. Might as well accept it. – Garth

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.20.20 at 6:50 pm

#183 Tommy on 11.20.20 at 11:52 am
Just reading Garth’s snarky responses to his blig dog’s comments, shows me that the question asked on here a few days ago bears repeating: Is Garth Turner even a conservative?

If being a conservative means believing Trump won, Covid’s a hoax, mask-wearing is stupid, Trudeau will reset the world and the vax is poison, ah, no. – Garth
————-
Conservative, fascist, socialist, communist.
All relative.
I consider myself center left, my kids call me an old fashioned conservative.
They voted green.

#92 Arthur on 11.20.20 at 6:50 pm

“The bottom line is that Covid made most housing less affordable. The vaccine to kill Covid will probably do the same. We will emerge from this with real estate even more of an acute symbol of the wealth divide in our society. That’s been bolstered by the reality of 2020 – wherein the bulk of job losses were among those in essential or lower-income jobs, while the white collar WFH bourgeoisie just went online, got a fat mortgage and moved to a ranch bung in Mississauga.

None of this is healthy for society. We become less diversified. More indebted. Less liquid. More immobile. The young are disenfranchised. Wealth is consolidated. And governments have a far better idea of where to go for the new tax revenue they so desperately need in a post-Covid world.

More on this, soon.”

Garth, your left leanings are showing! Your coming off more like a SJW every day .

#93 zoey on 11.20.20 at 6:51 pm

I don’t agree that you think home prices will just stay where they are as demand falls in the burbs…So rising interests rates, still very high unemployment and even greater indebtedness don’t mean diddly now all of a sudden ? Doubtful.

Same 3 detached houses near me downtown T.O still on the market….~6weeks. Absorbtion rate still lower than 30 for all properties which is a buyers market…

#94 Oleg on 11.20.20 at 6:56 pm

Hi Garth,

I think you said central banks can buy assets to synthetically keep bond rates low. Can they do this? Or is there a limit? Please explain to us proles.

#95 Shirl Clarts on 11.20.20 at 6:59 pm

#82 S.Bby on 11.20.20 at 6:38 pm
I’ll never fly in a 737 Max and as for getting injected with an unproven vaccine… well, you get the drift.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I trust the vaccine. Remember that everyone that works in a Hospital, worldwide, will be getting the dose first. I trust they have weighed the consequences of that, if something goes wrong.

But I will be staying away from the Max 8 for at least 18 months after its return to Canada. They’ll need to build a track record.

Never forget that not one, BUT TWO of these poorly designed aircraft crashed in the exact same way – a computer override (failed AI in a sense) took away the cockpit from the pilots. And they’re going to “patch” the software? Why not just remove it. The engine stall warning bell and light should be enough to get the pilots attention. I’d rather planes only crashed due to pilot error… like the old days.

#96 mark on 11.20.20 at 7:02 pm

Their is a big difference of force vaccination and mandating covid vaccination.
I can see this challenge in court.

We are not forcing a vaccination but if you don’t have your PAPERS you don’t get a driver’s license, EI benefits, yada yada yada…… See it coming.

#97 joblo on 11.20.20 at 7:03 pm

“Assuming most people are jabbed by this time next year, we can make several assumptions.”

Assuming the Calgary flames get to jump the cue again?

http://www.calgaryherald.com/health/Calgary+Flames+private+H1N1+shots+while+senior+citizens+homes+were+denied+inquiry+told/7819320/story.html

#98 Doug t on 11.20.20 at 7:06 pm

#86 Freddy

You going to shoot yourself instead of the shot? Dude that’s overkill

#99 Doug t on 11.20.20 at 7:08 pm

#83 Monica

Garth ban Monica please

#100 JPM on 11.20.20 at 7:08 pm

JPM calling for negative GDP growth in Q1 2021.

Here comes the double dip.

#101 David Pylyp on 11.20.20 at 7:09 pm

I am hearing from the great white north that some cottage properties; Parry Sound to Peterborough, are fetching 30 % over asking with firm offers.

No asking about built without permits, built to code, winterized summer boathouses/ garages as lofts…
So many missing questions… but a Lottery winning for Sellers.

Condo Sales in Toronto are headed for the second lockdown, No showings Just Matterport and Facetime.

Life favours the prepared.

David Pylyp
Toronto

#102 Nonplused on 11.20.20 at 7:10 pm

” (BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.)”

I don’t know that they will make the vaccine mandatory, but they don’t have to. If prudent people get it voluntarily in large enough numbers, say 60-70% of the population, that will pretty much stop the virus due to the much lower number of transmission paths. That combined with natural immunity that people who have already had it or survive it in the future should put this thing behind us.

Alberta new cases and deaths continue to climb so that is alarming. Things look similar across the country.
Turns out we in Canada were a little premature to celebrate our superior handling of the virus.

Trump gambled on a speedy vaccine development over preventative measures. He lost. It probably cost him the election. But the vaccine appears to be on the way.

I’ll probably get the jab voluntarily once I am convinced it actually works. It’s no different than all the jabs nearly everyone gets when they are a kid. Or a flu shot. I got all the jabs there were at the time when I was a kid and those programs are why we don’t have things like polio running wild in the population anymore. That is a good thing.

And I love the conspiracy theory that the covid jab will come with a microchip or tattoo or some other means of population tracking. If “they” were going to do that, why aren’t “they” chipping our kids already? “They” could get everyone chipped that way eventually. But therein lies the other problem with “chipping”. These chips don’t last forever, any more so than a washing machine. Plus they already have a much better way of tracking people that we all sign up for voluntarily: smartphones. The phone company and Google always knows where you are, who you are talking to, and increasingly what you spend your money on. No chip required. My wife even pays for stuff with her phone!

I was shocked but not shocked the first time I logged into the Goggly thing that tracks your location and see them accurately tracking me all across North America from one side to the other. They don’t need chips.

Your smartphone knows when you are sleeping, it knows when you’re awake, it know if you’ve been bad or good, so be good for goodness sake!

#103 Scott Portier on 11.20.20 at 7:12 pm

Look how stupid people in BC are. They think that their $1,000 for a family grant, $500 single person grant is a big break. Do you know how many years you were and are paying higher sales taxes, carbon taxes and many other taxes.

You already got ripped off and are still getting ripped off. People are really dumbed down now.

#104 akashic record on 11.20.20 at 7:16 pm

“(BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.)”

Or else?

Gestapo, Auschwitz, tattoo, “Vaccine Macht Frei”?

You are now banned. – Garth

#105 SoggyShorts on 11.20.20 at 7:16 pm

We are so screwed.

“I’m not anti-vax, but I’m not going first”
“Same here”
“Same here”
“Same here” “Same here” “Same here” “Same here” “Same here” “Same here” “Same here”

“So…uh…I guess we just do lockdowns forever?”

I just really hope this means I can get one super soon and then get a stamp or something in my passport that’ll let me travel to a more sane destination.

#106 Hanna Bishop on 11.20.20 at 7:17 pm

Let’s really tax foundations, charities, international organizations like NGO’s. Trudeau, Freeland, Clinton and others should pay up big time.

#107 jal on 11.20.20 at 7:22 pm

Is Van. still planning a 12% municipal tax increase?

#108 IMALWAYSRIGHT on 11.20.20 at 7:24 pm

Knowing that the vaccine must be stored at extremely cold temperatures, Canada is looking at using Dicky Dee for distribution.

#109 Drinking on 11.20.20 at 7:26 pm

#104 Scott Portier

Yep, but the WEST COASTERS will find a way to blame Alberta,or maybe they are moving on the Sask and Man now, eventually they will blame N.F. get ready Garth. :)

#110 Only BC? on 11.20.20 at 7:27 pm

#104 Scott Portier on 11.20.20 at 7:12 pm
Look how stupid people in BC are. They think that their $1,000 for a family grant, $500 single person grant is a big break.
———————————————–
Wasn’t it all areas of Canada that thought the TFSA limit should be lowered. And got it.

#111 Colin on 11.20.20 at 7:28 pm

… As residents of Canada’s major cities flee for the suburban “outskirts” and rural regions, it will be interesting to observe the impact of the “urban exodus” on those cities and their fiscal viability.

At some point, I suspect those responsible for managing cities may have to reconsider their ridiculous covid health policies and restrictions. Failing this, they can permanently kiss their most affluent (and mobile) tax base goodbye .. and subsidize the remaining “wards of welfare”. Have fun with that scenario!

#112 Vancouver in the Rearview on 11.20.20 at 7:28 pm

Garth, so suburbs are maintaining their prices? Prices go up in depression, recession, good news? How does it feel to know that your thesis has been wrong for so many years?

There is no troubled future of real estate. It’s going to keep going up. Why? Because the economy is dedicated to doing so. There is no moral hazard anymore, there are bailouts for the mob no matter the cost, whether it’s directly through cash giveaways, or through lower interest rates. Vancouver and Toronto prices are evidence that there is no connection to what people earn anymore, it’s all about debt and no one cares. So why should I? There is no bringing normality back to these markets and trying to play by normal rules no longer apply in the casino that will never end.

#113 Nonplused on 11.20.20 at 7:29 pm

#8 KAC on 11.20.20 at 2:48 pm

“As humerous aside, my girlfriend has started calling herself my “Wife Elect” despite me insisting that I will not formerly decide on marriage until December 14th”

The Babylon Bee beat you to that punchline by some 9 days.

https://babylonbee.com/news/girlfriend-keeps-referring-to-herself-as-wife-elect-despite-no-official-word-from-boyfriend

#114 Hermen Sappier on 11.20.20 at 7:30 pm

They always talk about tax fairness then they have to put income taxes on lottery, gambling winnings, welfare, social assistance, WSIB, worker’s compensations benefits, federal supplement pensions, certain federal pensions, disability benefits like ODSB and others and many other medical, health, dental, pharmacare benefits etc.

Tax all current tax free government subsidies, government benefits, government payouts no matter what they are for and who they are for.

#115 Ustabe on 11.20.20 at 7:30 pm

Interviewer: I see there is a four year gap in your resume. Did you work in the Trump administration?

Applicant: No sir! I was in prison! Honest.

#116 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 11.20.20 at 7:33 pm

#50 kc on 11.20.20 at 4:41 pm
I find it so funny that a vaccination can be “found” so easily for a nano virus that will affect .1 % of the population, however they have spent 40 years trying to “cure” cancer and who knows how many BILLIONS of dollars in that industry, and all to no avail….

//////////

Cancer is not one disease, it’s 100s of different ones, with different causes. There have been many successful treatments developed in the last 40 years.

The feature that cancers share is uncontrolled cellular proliferation. Growth, run amok, if you will.

Is there a parallel with uncontrolled stock market growth? Are we seeing market cancer in it’s embryonic phase?

#117 Eco Capitalist on 11.20.20 at 7:37 pm

All of you volunteering to get jabbed first please, go ahead; we need all the data we can get. I plan on waiting until there’s a few years worth, thanks.

#118 Chris on 11.20.20 at 7:37 pm

Mark it is time to give them a needle for them. Wait until next election time.

#119 cuke and tomato picker on 11.20.20 at 7:40 pm

Scott Portier the people in BC are living the charmed life.

#120 Flop... on 11.20.20 at 7:40 pm

Am currently taking 800IU of Vitamin D a day.

Also 60mg of Vitamin C, daily, is this enough to keep me safe from this thing that has plagued modern society?

I don’t want to turn into a Zombie.

Not talking about COVID.

Will it keep me safe from Real Estate Pumpers…

M46BC

#121 Freedom First on 11.20.20 at 7:41 pm

Times change. In the 1960’s they said “a million ain’t what it used to be”, then 1990’s it was a billion. 2020’s it’s a trillion. Next? When?

Freedom First

#122 Nonplused on 11.20.20 at 7:41 pm

#20 Sunshine on 11.20.20 at 3:28 pm
Hi Garth,
Would you consider doing a column about retiring during the pandemic? My big choice – leave or stay with Government of Alberta. I turn 55 at the end of January – so can take my commuted value (around $400,000) at 55 – or I can stay in the DB pension and work and hope I don’t get shown the door. I have more than $400,000 in TFSA and RRSPs, house is paid for ($450,000 ish). I would want work doing something else – but who knows what the economy will do. I know you always say take the money and run – but these are odd times and I need your sage advice. Thanks a million!

—————————-

Garth didn’t reply so I will. $800,000 in liquid assets is pretty skinny for retirement at 55. Keep working until you can get early CPP. If you get laid off, well, $hit happens. But you’ll probably get a package. Commute at that time.

#123 OK, Doomer on 11.20.20 at 7:43 pm

#91 Love_The_Cottage on 11.20.20 at 6:47 pm
BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on
___________
Now we see why you allow all the trolls to post comments. We bow to the king of trolls.

Just a fact. Might as well accept it. – Garth

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

It’s not the vaccine shot that bothers me.

It’s the new cucumber sized Alexa suppository that Trudeau will mandate to go along with it that concerns me.

But Google-vernment tracking you and listening in on all your conversations is only to keep you safe, right?

How else are they supposed to re-program us?

#124 Coho on 11.20.20 at 7:48 pm

It is evident that an increasing number of people have lost trust in the authorities and it is understandable. I wrote long ago that financials/real estate, would go to the back burner and replaced by concern/focus on basic rights and freedoms.

Although, this is primarily a financial blog, Covid and reaction to it has seeped into every facet of life, and our host has been gracious enough to allow the discussion he has.

I understand your frustration, Garth, that the blog comments are increasingly outside of the vein of real estate and financials. The world has changed. These are confusing, uncertain and unprecedented times. People are consumed with worry and trying to make sense of it all. It is not easy for anyone these days.

Some are resenting the criticism of our politicians, but it is quite well known that their hands are often tied toeing the Party line. Some perhaps still try to do the right thing, and others not so much because they are in it for themselves. In any case it appears that service to Party comes first which may be at odds at what is best for the people. Garth posted his frustration about this a few weeks back.

People it seems, have split into two main groups, those whose main fear is getting sick with Covid, and those fearing the loss of their freedoms. And there remains the ever present matter of earning a living and funding retirement amid the turmoil. Not easy for the people, emotionally, socially, psychologically, spiritually or financially.

#125 Nonplused on 11.20.20 at 7:48 pm

#28 Comrade on 11.20.20 at 3:51 pm
I hear Biden wants a recount on his age. He turned 78 today. – Garth

Why would anyone at that age want a high stress job and all this drama? Same for Trump, he is not much younger either. beats me.

————

Beats me too but it looks like Trump will be retiring.

#126 Darren Holton on 11.20.20 at 7:49 pm

I think a 100% HST/GST tax and a 100% annual Canadian existence tax is the best idea. This way we all know they have reached all their stolen money quota.

When they have stolen all the money they can give everything free to everyone they like. Like I said, FREE, forever regretting ever entrusting. So is crap is free and it has crappy value literally like government promises, government entitlements, government benefits, government policies, government.

#127 KNOW IT ALL on 11.20.20 at 7:50 pm

” (BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.)”

So how do you enforce 7 Billion people to take a vaccine?

I have cops, nurses, and military personal in my own family who won’t even take it themselves and neither will I if it means I have to stay in my house for eternity.

Do you remember what nearly happened to the Governor of Michigan when she tried to impose mandatory restrictions in the state? (Cross-Hairs)

The logistics and complexity of trying to vax an entire globe is utterly incomprehensible.

These drugs have been pushed through the system and now your going to volunteer to be the guinea pig?

After a year or 2 when you start to go blind and your nervous system and heart start to disintegrate you will have been so happy you drank the kool-aid.

Don’t be the “Greatest” Fool!!!

#128 The Nutty Epidemiologists - Covid party deserters on 11.20.20 at 7:50 pm

DELETED

#129 Hookshott on 11.20.20 at 7:55 pm

#69 Terry on 11.20.20 at 5:24 pm
“(BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.)”

As an aside, you cannot be forced to get vaccinated. It cannot be made mandatory. You have the right to refuse getting vaccinated.
……
Again, it will be required to do a lot of things like going in many stores, taking a plane, booking a hotel etc. You can refuse to be vaccinated but you may find your life is even more boring than it is now!

#130 Rina Abdulja on 11.20.20 at 8:00 pm

Look how old Obama got. Did you see him on TV. All his hair is white. He is relevant as much as Joe Biden’s speaking skills yesterday he could not hold a few words and his back up Kamala Harris had to answer for him.

The Biden Harris duo, the best the left can ever get. The lost and old America’s best losers.

#131 Hookshott on 11.20.20 at 8:04 pm

#80 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.20.20 at 5:59 pm
Covid vax will, in essence, be mandatory since society will demand it. You’ll never get an insurance policy, for example, while being susceptible to infection. Or travel. Think about it. Nobody will want to take the risk. So why not get jabbed? – Garth

I’m all for safe vaccines, but unless you’re advocating some Nazi style ship, the free market will accomodate the 50% of those who don’t want to “get jabbed”.

Lefties are too funny.

It’s all about risk, not ideology. – Garth
………..
Unlikely to be 50% who don’t want it…and also unlikely there will be many businesses accommodating the small % not vaccinated…but you can hope!

#132 FriedEggs on 11.20.20 at 8:05 pm

I cant get vaccinated – i’m allergic to ‘Aborted fetal tissue’

Fact, no conspiracy –

‘WI-38 is a diploid human cell line composed of fibroblasts derived from lung tissue of a 3-month-gestation aborted female fetus.[1][2] ‘

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WI-38

It does terrible things for my digestion.

Plus, its not J.C. approved.

#133 SWL on 11.20.20 at 8:09 pm

Roll up your sleeve and papers please

What’s old is new again

#134 NutterTation on 11.20.20 at 8:10 pm

Fellow nutters PREPARE

There is an ongoing attack on our way of life, people in the comments of this blog are trying to silence the truth!

You can’t handle the truth ‘dogwhistle’ you are a CSIS operative on behalf of the 5 eyes trying to silence a new Canadian neo con, I know what you’re trying to do. not fair I say!

Here is the not fake news I’ve found today:

-Elmo of Sesame street is going to be transgender and spread the vote for the new green deal!

howdumbcanyoube.ca/elmo-trans-votes-fornewgreendeal.html

– Beers in Ontario are going to go up in price by 3 bucks a can, all that to pay for the quote / unquote pandemic!

-Have you notice the 401 Toronto in 2? You know why? if you don’t clear the snow in winter we’re stuck! But fear not we can escape by ice skating across lake Ontario to the free land of USA!

-The communists have infected Don Trump the second!
I have it from good sources (some guy on twitter) that they are going to try and infect daddies ‘bit on the side’ aka Ivanka!

Do I have too much time on my hands? I do not.
My wife has left and my children hate me but I will still fight for the freedom of my fellow basement keyboard warrior and I WILL care when people make fun of me!!!!

#135 tccontrarian on 11.20.20 at 8:10 pm

I stopped reading at:

“(BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.)”

So, you are OK with this Garth?

Or are you a Moderna shareholder and all you see is $$$’s?

What happened to freedom of choice?

I’m not a violent person, but if this becomes ‘law’ …
let’s just say that there’s an uglier side to me.

tcc

You turn out to be just the man I suspected. – Garth

#136 Erin Possa on 11.20.20 at 8:12 pm

I think the best tax, spend, borrow policy would be that everyone who works for the government should live on $800 US a day like in Africa until the Corona virus is over.

This way they have to prove they are not profiting from this big virus mess. Also, any assets, bank accounts, investments, any money property, anything of value they can try to beat the rules will be all frozen and can’t be touched. If they do try or get anything from these and other valuables, property, money etc. they should lose all of it and can’t work, do anything in Canada for 50 years.

#137 kc on 11.20.20 at 8:13 pm

103 Nonplused on 11.20.20 at 7:10 pm

For some of us (me) i wont get a “jab” because of a health reason…. I don’t trust a uushed to market un proven “cure”… nothing to do with the other crap… just I value my decision to a health options. back in the 70’s there was a speedy vaccine made for a cure all… guess what happened? the cure crippled people. and you get NO recourse….

I will take my chances thanks. I have a good immune system… i ate dirt when i was a child….. and I don’t “sanitize” my hands every 5 minutes either….

cheers

#138 I’m not a doc on 11.20.20 at 8:13 pm

How can these mad scientists whip up a vaccine that is 95%+ effective in less then a year? The flu vaccine has been around since the 30’s – 40’s and was only 29% effective last year. Does that mean no more flu since covid is the baddest of the baddest.

“According to the CDC’s estimates for the 2018-19 season, vaccinating only half of all Americans prevented 4.4 million cases of the flu, 58,000 hospitalizations, and 3,500 deaths. That was in a year that the vaccine was only 29% effective.”

The anti-vax sentiment here is beyond credulity. You folks are immoral and irresponsible. – Garth

#139 MF on 11.20.20 at 8:13 pm

58 Coho on 11.19.20 at 6:47 pm

Sorry, but you could not be more wrong. It was wise to limit that particular poster to 2 comments.

The reason is simple. When you see his name show up, you know exactly what the theme of the content, angle, and tone it will take before even reading it.

There are many solid posters on here (some examples: Nonplused, AceGoodHeart, dharma, looney dr etc.). What makes them good is they a) read the post of the day and comment accordingly b) give their analysis of the topic c) even though there are some biases, and I often disagree with what is said, their posts largely give some sort of new insight on the topic d) often there are tidbits of value and advice within the posts.

The poster you mention offers zero of any of the above points. It’s a negative message, with zero validity, zero takeaways, loads of bias, and nothing but throwaway negativity every single time.

Those that listen to that type of poster are simply looking for a confirmation of their own biases/fears/insecurities. The pandemic has provided the perfect backstop, which is why that poster has been spammimg this place since February when it all started.

Garth was right to try and steer the ship a few days ago (i am a few posts behind and have been catching up).

MF

#140 Ace Goodheart on 11.20.20 at 8:15 pm

Re: never being able to travel or get insurance without a COVID vaccine:

This is incorrect.

You can easily get travel insurance right now that covers COVID.

You can also travel.

Many countries don’t even require a COVID test.

Never confuse what is happening inside Canada’s borders for what is happening outside Canada’s borders.

Forced vaccination, like any forced medical procedure, is against international law, and always will be.

It also violates Canada’s charter and this has been confirmed by our Supreme Court.

#141 espressobob on 11.20.20 at 8:15 pm

After reading some of the comments lately I’ve come to realize that there are in fact worse things than covid.

#142 Kelly Bedford on 11.20.20 at 8:28 pm

Trudeau’s net zero should also be for the national debt. We should have no national. net $0 national debt by 2050. This whole climate change promises is just like the Kyoto Accord, dead in the water and just to make mass confusion.

#143 Terry on 11.20.20 at 8:30 pm

DELETED

#144 Phylis on 11.20.20 at 8:36 pm

#106 SoggyShorts on 11.20.20 at 7:16 pm
We are so screwed.

“I’m not anti-vax, but I’m not going first”
“Same here”
“Same here”
“Same here” “Same here” “Same here” “Same here” “Same here” “Same here” “Same here”

“So…uh…I guess we just do lockdowns forever?”

I just really hope this means I can get one super soon and then get a stamp or something in my passport that’ll let me travel to a more sane destination.

——————-
I too will not be eligible to be first in line.
How about some real transparency of reactions just as testing, cases and deaths have been reported? Seems reasonable, no?

#145 Steerage on 11.20.20 at 8:38 pm

#133 FriedEggs on 11.20.20 at 8:05 pm
I cant get vaccinated – i’m allergic to ‘Aborted fetal tissue’

Fact, no conspiracy –

‘WI-38 is a diploid human cell line composed of fibroblasts derived from lung tissue of a 3-month-gestation aborted female fetus.[1][2] ‘

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WI-38

It does terrible things for my digestion.

Plus, its not J.C. approved.


FRIED BRAINS….what a pile of stupid idiocy….

The blog commentary has turned into a gong show of whack jobs…. anti-vaxxer wing nuts…trumper clown show knuckle draggers…. go start your own damn blog and bugger off from what used to be an enjoyable read… the orange dude has oozed into everything…Giuliani is spewing so much crap it’s literally oozing from him….

#146 Gregory Hampton on 11.20.20 at 8:41 pm

Garth, what about a $10,000 annual environment climate tax for every Canadian and get it done. This way the Bank of Canada can stop talking about climate change and do it’s real job of putting it’s Bank of Canada interest rate back to July-2007 levels of 4.5%. Leave it there until 2025 at the very least.

This way we can see a 7.5%+ annual mortgage payment ratio and a $300,000 drop on $1,000,000+ houses in GTA, Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria etc. Get it done.

#147 willworkforpickles on 11.20.20 at 8:46 pm

#140 Ace Goodheart
I discredit conspiracy theories as they come out of the woodwork, even make satirical fun of them.
You are absolutely correct in that vaccine enforcement on all peoples is charter violation and won’t become law contrary to my satirical earlier post. A fee imposed for those getting the vax (unlike reg. flu shots) with quarterly boosters wouldn’t be a stretch though with this government in control.

#148 TriniGirl on 11.20.20 at 8:46 pm

Why would anyone need a vaccine against a disease that doesn’t kill 99.7% of people that it infects?

It will be optional for the old and weak.

Then why do you think lockdowns and community spread would end? Sheesh. The loonies are taking over. – Garth

#149 P.Ooched on 11.20.20 at 8:55 pm

|| Folks will be flying around in Max 737s. Going on cruises. Eating out. Watching games and concerts. And, yes, going to work.

All due respect – because I do love reading when you gaze into your crystal ball and share those “visions” with us, however …

those rose colored economic glasses that you are wearing today are totally obscuring your view of the sh*t storm that is about to unfold between – now and whenever – “herd immunization” or whatever “the cure” ultimately turns out to be that puts that nasty lil bug back in it’s rightful place.

My crystal ball says that – a year from now – ] sports arenas won’t be packed full of spectators paying big bucks to watch Austin chase a puck or Kyle shoot hoops, ] big city rents wont be any higher then what they are now and and there ] will still be a glut of condos on the TO market, ] dirt will still be RE gold, ] some sanity will return to markets that are further afield – AFTER ] our long dark cold covid winter that lays ahead. There will still be ‘scads more’ people WFH ing then there were pre c19 and more companies that will either adapt to that reality or wish that they had.

So, if I look ahead a little further into 2022, maybe even 2023 – I can buy into some of your ‘the great return to downtown lifestyle’ visions, but in the meantime maybe you should check and see if you still have any warranty left on your crystal ball b/c it looks like the calibration is a bit off.

FWIW – I truly hope that you are 100% correct in your observations and your timelines and that I am 100% wrong.

#150 neo on 11.20.20 at 9:04 pm

Garth,

You know full well there is ZERO percent chance the whole planet get vaccinated in 2021.

Use Pfizer as an example. Their most optimistic projection is 1 billion doses for the entire 2021 year. Problem is each person needs two doses so that’s only 500 million people. That amounts to 6% of the global population. Not too mention it has to be stored at 80 below celcius so expect a certain percentage to spoil.

Moreover, this isn’t a cure. We have no idea how long this immunity lasts. It could be months…And then what?

Between supply constraints and elderly and first responders being first in line it could be years before it gets to the healthy portion of the population that have a 99% recovery rate.

Yet, you’re definitively saying it will be made mandatory or insurance companies will shun you come Spring 2021 and beyond when it won’t even be readily available to general the population. Nonsense.

#151 Northshore guy on 11.20.20 at 9:06 pm

Garth,

I feel for you, but the He who must not be named supporters and the anti vaxxers are a completely brainwashed bunch, nothing you say will change their mind. The quality of comments is going down sadly.

I unfortunately know a few like these in my friend circle, they stopped reading normal media long time ago and only read conspiracy websites.

Hard to argue with someone who doesn’t believe in facts.

#152 NDee on 11.20.20 at 9:09 pm

The economy has already tanked. Thank god for the real estate keeping us alive.

#153 tccontrarian on 11.20.20 at 9:15 pm

BANNED

#154 Outrage on 11.20.20 at 9:18 pm

I’m here in Puerto Vallarta relaxing for the winter.If you can can get out of Slavelandia for the winter do so. Its sad so many people will take the vaccine ,remember vaccines take years to develop and research. Drink the the kool aid or mean take the vaccine. If you can get a 2nd passport or residence and leave Kanada.Look at Demark, they will not be treated like sheeple and the take the vaccine.

#155 Captain Uppa on 11.20.20 at 9:18 pm

Yeesh.

I will totally understand if you want to close this blog down.

#156 yvr_lurker on 11.20.20 at 9:20 pm

Sorry, I am not an anti-vaxer. My friend/colleague at work is a good friend of the principal investigator Prof. Sarah Gilbert from the Oxford research lab that lead the group who formulated the vaccine candidate based on the novel messenger RNA approach (this is the AstraZenica vaccine for which the data for Phase III trials are still being analyzed). My friend attests 100% to the skill and ethics of Sara’s lab. If this vaccine does meet with final approval by the regulatory bodies I am willing to put my trust in this vaccine and just take it. It will allow us to live with some sense of normality and get back to our family back-packing vacations in remote locals). The Oxford website is

https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Area/coronavirus-research/vaccine

for those who are willing to read it unfiltered by political agendas and other BS. The reason why we have potentially reputable vaccine candidates at this stage is due to scientific advances from the huge number of research labs together with the considerable funding needed to RAPIDLY but carefully put forth all the needed trials.

I don’t believe much of anything that comes out of Russia with their overly-rushed “vaccine” that they essentially tried on a super-small collection of random people before approving it. My skeptisism to what they say is due to my reading of the Cancer Ward by Solzhenitsyn when I was in college years ago.

#157 Bezengy on 11.20.20 at 9:20 pm

I spent a lot of time fund raising in my time with Rotary, with the intention of trying to eradicate polio. It meant a lot to me as I personally knew victims of this devastating disease. It was a very simple and effective vaccine a person could swallow in two seconds and they were done, no more polio. Unfortunately we had a lot of trouble trying to convince the third world countries of the benefits as they were convinced we were trying to sterilize them, etc. Bloody idiots, all of them. It was polio for %$£@ sakes. What’s with people?

#158 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.20.20 at 9:21 pm

#86 Teddy Freddy on 11.20.20 at 6:33 pm
Let them try and force vaccinate me. I’ve got a gun…….

Another day that I hate this blog. – Garth
—————-
I hear they gonna use tranquilizer guns.
Watch your back.

#159 Drinking on 11.20.20 at 9:21 pm

I have had the TB,Polio,Hep,Measle,Mumps and god knows what else shots there was out there at my adolescent, even tried the flu shot once which I will never do again, that one just did not agree with me.

Had the measles, mumps, never caught the rest which is all part of many, many, many years of testing on millions of people and animals. I am absolutely not anti vaccine but like most very suspicious (although technology has greatly improved) that a miraculous cure could all of a sudden appear in 6 months?? Yet, like many mentioned, no cure for flu or cold or pneumonia.
Covid, a classic case of a cold and pneumonia with a little extra gene help by whom???

When I know it is safe Garth after many are injected, you can have my dose and let us all know how it affects you then I will have no problem getting that injected in me but I will wait and see what transpires in the first 100 million that get injected.

I will keep up with my Vit D, C, Zinc regiment and of course exercising and a few good shots of whisky and a few beers to get me through this.

#160 John in Mtl on 11.20.20 at 9:23 pm

The anti-vax sentiment here is beyond credulity. You folks are immoral and irresponsible. – Garth

Dear Garth,

While there are certainly a few anti-vaxers here among us, please don’t put everybody who has a doubt about covid vaccines in the same bag.

Surely you know about “risk assessment”, and this is why some of us will wait a long while before getting a jab of any rushed-to-market, short-tested vaccine; with the companies making them absolved of all liabilities should anything nefarious eventually happen to those who were inoculated.

Either way its a gamble – risk taking an experimental vaccine or risk getting the bug. If the vaccine(s) prove to be safe a few years out, then I’ll gladly take it. In the meantime, I’ll take my calculated risks.

It’s all about you. Thanks for explaining. – Garth

#161 HUNGRY BEAR on 11.20.20 at 9:23 pm

When this whole COVID thing is over we gonna party like its:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rblt2EtFfC4

Until then Toronto and Peel you on:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSzv3K3Keyg

#162 truefacts on 11.20.20 at 9:31 pm

I don’t get this whole vaccine debate…

If you’re scared of getting Covid and you trust the vaccine, get it. If it works, it should PROTECT you (isn’t that what a vaccine is supposed to do).

If you’re protected, who gives a crap if others get it or not?

Why do some extremists want to make this mandatory?

For the same reason measles had to be eradicated. Or polio. Remember? – Garth

#163 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.20.20 at 9:53 pm

#123 Nonplused on 11.20.20 at 7:41 pm
#20 Sunshine on 11.20.20 at 3:28 pm
Hi Garth,
Would you consider doing a column about retiring during the pandemic? My big choice – leave or stay with Government of Alberta. I turn 55 at the end of January – so can take my commuted value (around $400,000) at 55 – or I can stay in the DB pension and work and hope I don’t get shown the door. I have more than $400,000 in TFSA and RRSPs, house is paid for ($450,000 ish). I would want work doing something else – but who knows what the economy will do. I know you always say take the money and run – but these are odd times and I need your sage advice. Thanks a million!

—————————-

Garth didn’t reply so I will. $800,000 in liquid assets is pretty skinny for retirement at 55. Keep working until you can get early CPP. If you get laid off, well, $hit happens. But you’ll probably get a package. Commute at that time.
——————-
Nonpluss,
Are you applying for position of a weekend blogger?
Would be fun if Garth would let you once, to see what you got.

#164 truefacts on 11.20.20 at 9:54 pm

For the same reason measles had to be eradicated. Or polio. Remember? – Garth

Sorry – please explain. IF the vaccine works, why would you get polio or measles if you are vaccinated and others are not? IF the vaccine WORKS, vaccinated people should be safe, no? If a disease is truly serious, seems like Darwinian processes would run their course…

I got the polio, measles, others, etc vaccine so I don’t worry about getting them – I should be protected. I never get the flu shot because I don’t worry about it and haven’t died yet. Never got the chicken pox vaccine – still alive…

Do some research on herd immunity. Then try posting. This is embarrassing. – Garth

#165 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.20.20 at 9:59 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5NmhtqGg04

#166 dogwhistle on 11.20.20 at 10:03 pm

Whoooaaa

The amount of anti-vaxxers on this blog is getting frightening.

If you don’t believe in science just make sure your surgeon doesn’t wash his hands before your next operation. Cuz, can’t see the germs so they don’t exist right?

Don’t want a vaccine and end up on a ventilator?
Here’s the bill from the hospital.

Why the hell should others who already have been stuck in lockdowns, are suffering yet another recession have to pay for stone age cretins???

Maybe, I dunno, you could show some gratitude to the scientists who have worked non-stop?

Like many here I’m really starting to get turned off by the Trump-anti-science lunatics on this blog…

#167 willworkforpickles on 11.20.20 at 10:04 pm

Many are saying they want to wait and see if any adverse effects surface from the vaccines before getting a shot.
This is where the phase 4 segment of clinical studies comes into play and initial groups of vaccinated subjects prove a drugs/vaccinations safety level within the population.
2 years of this clinical trial phase for a vaccination of this scope is a reasonable timeline to gain or lose this trust among the masses.

#168 Prairie Skeptic on 11.20.20 at 10:10 pm

Measles is a dangerous infectious disease. It has not been eradicated. There are outbreaks all the time. You do not have to be vaccinated against it. To my knowledge it does not impact insurability, attendance at public school, or travel. It’s interesting to me that people think Covid vaccine should be mandatory when other vaccines aren’t.

#169 KNOW IT ALL on 11.20.20 at 10:10 pm

Whats all the FUSS over taking the VACCINE?

It’s been pushed through the regulatory system lighting quick. Whats the worse that could happen folks?

After all….. the TRUMP administration is behind the whole thing bullying oops I mean bribing oops I mean encouraging pharma and regulators to keep dancing with no sleep until they come up with something.

But ignore the election thingy, that couldnt influence a Trump to act out of integrity.

You know #45, that guy that Garth just adores.

It must be safe and effective after all those years of trials and reports on side effects and results.

#170 kc on 11.20.20 at 10:29 pm

Does history repeat or rhyme?

I am not against vaccinations. I feel people who are anti vaxers are nuts… IE polio and the majors. However, this flu stuff is not a worthy cause as I can see it. here is what history should be a precaution. written in the Smithsonian.

Pay your nickle and take your chances ….

cheers

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/long-shadow-1976-swine-flu-vaccine-fiasco-180961994/

#171 Gonkman on 11.20.20 at 10:30 pm

Wow… MSM is working well I see.

Soo much COVID/Vax talk. We won’t even see the Vax until March or later anyway because Health Canada hasn’t even looked at it.

“Nothing will be distributed in Canada until Health Canada is absolutely certain that the safety of Canadians is being properly covered and taken care of,” Trudeau said.

Which will be some say Past March 2021 at the earliest.

No one will be talking about Corona soon enough anyway.

Once Sydney Powell or Trump via DOJ releases what really happened in the election people will be asking and/or talking about that for a while.

All the MSM media on Corona will die down. It’s being hyped because they don’t want people talking about the election results.

I can’t wait for it to drop. I already have a good idea (guestimate) what is coming. Some will be shocked others will be outraged. The world won’t believe it.

Hopefully within the next 2 weeks…

Get your popcorn ready. Its going to be a hell of show and a bumpy ride.

#172 P.Ooched on 11.20.20 at 10:31 pm

#66 Dolce Vita on 11.20.20 at 5:22 pm

|| On Moderna doing well on the market, heck, I’d be investing in Dry Ice manufacturers/logistic firms since their vaccine needs -70 deg C storage and transport.

I believe that its the Phizer(PFE) vax that needs the super duper refrigeration(-70C) for transport/storage etc

while the Moderna(MRNA) vax has a competitive advantage in that the refrigeration it requires(-20c) is more inline with normal refrigeration/freezer capabilities

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/17/935563377/why-does-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-need-to-be-kept-colder-than-antarctica

#173 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 11.20.20 at 10:31 pm

Start shining your 6000 loonies, and if you shine 143 per day they’ll all be ready for January 1st. No surprises here (2/3 down the page):

https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/frequently-asked-questions-individuals/adjustment-personal-income-tax-benefit-amounts.html

#174 Stoph on 11.20.20 at 10:32 pm

The anti-vaxers seem to only evaluate covid’s severity according to it’s fatality rate – ignoring hospitalization rates and it’s long term effects.

The long term effects of covid aren’t known either, though some of the more common long term effects include shortness of breath, joint and chest pain; other effects include fog brain, and heart palpitations. There are other more rare and more nasty effects as well. You can find them listed on CDC website.

So yes, I’d rather take my ‘chances’ with a vaccine that’s been rigorously tested over a relatively short-term (less than a year) rather than some new virus.

#175 R on 11.20.20 at 10:34 pm

While a ranting Trump is throwing checker pieces around the room , the Chinese are playing chess. A new comprehensive trade agreement has been signed that includes 14 Asian countries including Australia and New Zealand. If this was chess, China would be a queen in the game. The world is moving on with or without the US. It is time for mature strategy , not childish antics.

#176 willworkforpickles on 11.20.20 at 10:49 pm

#164 PP
…..”Nonpluss,
Are you applying for position of a weekend blogger?
Would be fun if Garth would let you once, to see what you got.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Now that’s funny, hilarious even but a fantastic idea anyway. Make it a once a week thing…gives our author a little break. Various posters could throw their hat in the ring and Garth could choose and announce who the blogger on a certain day the following week will be. Try it anyway for awhile…see how it turns out. Maybe…or not.

#177 John in Mtl on 11.20.20 at 10:51 pm

#161 John in Mtl on 11.20.20 at 9:23 pm

It’s all about you. Thanks for explaining. – Garth

Aw come on Garth, it’s not just about me; lots of people here (and elsewhere) prefer to wait for proof of medium/long-term safety of these vaccines.

Thanks for taking the time to reply to my previous comments.

#178 Two-thirds on 11.20.20 at 10:53 pm

“And governments have a far better idea of where to go for the new tax revenue they so desperately need in a post-Covid world.”

Very true. All those billions sitting in financial portfolios, held by the 10% will be irresistible to the 90%, which will vote for those who promise “equality” through taxation of the “rich.”

House poor people are, well, poor. A giant mortgage does not grant ownership, or is wealth, when ultimately the house belongs to the bank…

So who will be taxed to pay for equality in the end?

Brave new world indeed…

#179 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.20.20 at 11:00 pm

Too many wannabe Faucis here.
Stick with what you know and don’t embarras yourselves.
My partner and I have taken the regular flu jab for the last 5 years. No side effects whatever.
Because my partner has diabetes, my children have taken the flu shot as a precaution this year.
I also took a shingles shot, and a hepatitis shot, shingles don’t kill you but the pain can be excrutiating and can last quite a while.
Most people know someone who had it.
So I’m loaded up to the gills with vaccines.

#180 Fortune faded on 11.20.20 at 11:02 pm

Garth my man, are you trolling your loyal readers this evening?
Two comments you made seem to be triggering your fan base, and rightly so. No way should you expect or suggest us blog dogs will be hopping on a Boeing max or getting injected with a rushed out vaccine next year.
I’m not anti Vaxer but come on, no way this goes off without a hitch.

#181 akashic record on 11.20.20 at 11:05 pm

BANNED

#182 truefacts on 11.20.20 at 11:08 pm

Do some research on herd immunity. Then try posting. This is embarrassing. – Garth

Yes, I’m familiar with the idea of herd immunity. But again, if the vaccine works, those getting it should be immune, so no worries for them.

If you’re afraid of Covid, get the jab – but don’t force others to. Do we really want to go down the path of governments forcing people to do things “for their own good?” How does that usually turn out?

#183 Sara on 11.20.20 at 11:14 pm

Previous blog post picture is really sad. :(

#184 mark on 11.20.20 at 11:25 pm

And let’s not forget the tainted polio vaccine in 1955.
It killed, paralyzed, maimed, many children.
Sh$t happens.

#185 Ustabe on 11.20.20 at 11:27 pm

Like many here I’m really starting to get turned off by the Trump-anti-science lunatics on this blog…

Me too…the willful lack of understanding the basics of how science and scientific research works is astounding. As is the lack of empathy.

Up a ways is someone talking about having a gun. When that type of scrot appears, its pretty much over unless swift and ruthless moderation soon follows.

#186 Paul on 11.20.20 at 11:46 pm

86 Teddy Freddy on 11.20.20 at 6:33 pm
Let them try and force vaccinate me. I’ve got a gun…….

Another day that I hate this blog. – Garth
————————————————————————————-
It won’t be forced, it will be corwertion No jab no ,travel job, services,
and shall I say it no C E R B or Employment Ins, guns just make it worse

#187 Upenuff on 11.20.20 at 11:51 pm

so here is the grind…… the majority of us have followed all protocol to minimize the dreaded corona! And yet, even amongst us here, we have bloggers enjoying life, global travelling and enjoying life like nothing bad ever invaded our lives. My only thought to those world travellers is are you rolling the dice or do you have fantastic medical coverage that will save your ass if the dreaded virus enters your body? Or are you remortgaging the house just so you can enjoy better weather and life?

#188 Sara on 11.21.20 at 12:06 am

Interesting article for those of us trying to decode the thinking of Trump followers. Put simply, they are driven by emotion (fear in particular), not logic — which Trump takes advantage of in order to promote his personal agendas.

“Another surprise victory is unlikely to happen again if this election is looked at from the same perspective of neuroscience that I used to account for the surprising outcome in 2016. Briefly, that article explained how our brain provides two different mechanisms of decision-making; one is conscious and deliberative, and the other is automatic, driven by emotion and especially by fear. Trump’s strategy does not target the neural circuitry of reason in the cerebral cortex; it provokes the limbic system. In the 2016 election, undecided voters were influenced by the brain’s fear-driven impulses—more simply, gut instinct—once they arrived inside the voting booth, even though they were unable to explain their decision to pre-election pollsters in a carefully reasoned manner….

In 2020, Trump continues to use the same strategy of appealing to the brain’s threat-detection circuitry and emotion-based decision process to attract votes and vilify opponents.

“Biden wants to surrender our country to the violent left-wing mob…. If Biden wins, very simple, China wins. If Biden wins, the mob wins. If Biden wins, the rioters, anarchists, arsonists and flag-burners, they win,” Trump declared at his Wisconsin campaign rally on September 17, 2020, offering new alleged threats to our nation as his 2016 bogeymen of rapist immigrants and foreign terrorists have lost potency. ”

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/neuroscience-and-psychology-suggest-no-surprise-victory-for-trump-this-time/

#189 Two-thirds on 11.21.20 at 12:19 am

Sadly, covid is now one more thing that is dividing us. All of us, quite successfully.

Worse, it seems that raising questions about the vaccine(s) and whether they can be made mandatory under current law, now gets people labelled an anti-vaxer on this blog!

Garth, it is clear and undeniable that the concept of mass-vaccination is driven by the desire to save lives and to emerge from this nightmare. We all want that.

But, as with all things, there are risks and trade-offs to this approach, and it should be okay in a democratic society to encourage debate on these issues, without labeling dissenters and lumping them with “deplorables” and other prejudicial characterizations.

There are legitimate concerns about taking vaccines and therapies that are new and developed at a historically-unprecedented pace. There are even more legitimate concerns about enforcing or “motivating” people to take them, that should be allowed to be discussed in a democratic society. Silencing the criticisms of vaccination lends weight to their conspiracy theories and gives legitimacy to those who oppose what can be justifiably said to be a troubling societal issue in a democratic, open society.

Do we want to see Canada become a place where people are shamed, silenced, or denigrated for questioning the course of action that our leaders and nation propose to take? Or worse, a place where ordinary services and charter freedoms are conditional upon getting jabbed??

If Taiwan, Japan, and New Zealand can manage with relative success without mass compulsory vaccination schemes, why can’t we even consider or debate the alternatives?

The world is divided enough as it is, to now be minced further by vaccination that may or may not be the whole and sole answer to the problem.

Health and safety, but at what cost? How much is too much to ask of citizenry?

Hope we can focus the dialogue on this without references to deplorables in F-150s and other cancel-culture staples.

#190 David Greene on 11.21.20 at 12:19 am

It’s been said above, but I will add my voice. Just because someone doesn’t want to take a vaccine developed in 7 months and that probably won’t be nearly adequately tested, distributed under emergency measures (zero liability for the manufacturer) does NOT make that person a Trumpist or an anti-vaxxer. All people draw boundaries somewhere. You’re drawing strawman arguments here and not even good ones.

And your comment is ignorant if you think that’s how science works. Your comment suggests you don’ have even a rudimentary understanding of the scientific process.

#167 dogwhistle on 11.20.20 at 10:03 pm

Whoooaaa

The amount of anti-vaxxers on this blog is getting frightening.

If you don’t believe in science just make sure your surgeon doesn’t wash his hands before your next operation. Cuz, can’t see the germs so they don’t exist right?

Don’t want a vaccine and end up on a ventilator?
Here’s the bill from the hospital.

Why the hell should others who already have been stuck in lockdowns, are suffering yet another recession have to pay for stone age cretins???

Maybe, I dunno, you could show some gratitude to the scientists who have worked non-stop?

Like many here I’m really starting to get turned off by the Trump-anti-science lunatics on this blog…

#191 tested for how long? on 11.21.20 at 12:31 am

“two vaccines have been proven effective and safe.”

“Safe” said the tobacco companies and “effective” said the DDT salesman.

#192 FriedEggs on 11.21.20 at 12:34 am

Steerage – Ad Hominen

‘Typically this term refers to a rhetorical strategy where the speaker attacks the character, motive, or some other attribute of the person making an argument rather than attacking the substance of the argument itself. This avoids genuine debate by creating a diversion to some irrelevant but often highly charged issue.’

Take care and God Bless!

#193 Nonplused on 11.21.20 at 12:34 am

#164 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.20.20 at 9:53 pm

Nonpluss,
Are you applying for position of a weekend blogger?
Would be fun if Garth would let you once, to see what you got.

——————-

I would love to weekend blog for Garth. I’d have to clean my act up a bit. But I think Brian will get the job first.

#194 millmech on 11.21.20 at 1:09 am

Garth,
I think what we are seeing tonight on the blog is an example of what happens when there is poor leadership in our country.
People would be more willing to get vaccinated, self isolate, wear masks etc, but we need that leadership from the top and it is not coming from them.
We are told to not travel and to stay home, yet our leaders do not do this.
We are told to self isolate when from returning from abroad, but they do not.
We are told to avoid large gatherings for the safety of our families but when it is politically expedient our leaders do not do this.
Now our leadership is telling us we must get vaccinated for the good of the people with a new vaccine, but will they?
We just do not seem to have any Canadian “values” to rally around anymore, you know like when we were respected worldwide as peace keepers and we could project “soft power” to have a presence and persuasion on the world stage.
We(They) have lost our way.

#195 Diamond Dog on 11.21.20 at 1:12 am

Do some research on herd immunity. Then try posting. This is embarrassing. – Garth

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

Yep. Took me 15 seconds to do a search and a few minutes of my life to read. Interesting stuff, actually.
Protection to those without immunity, evolutionary pressure of the virus to mutate through antigenic drift as has been stated, eradication of disease through herd immunity, Serotype replacement, we don’t have to worry about this with Covid19, just one Serotype out there right now and in it’s infancy, its best to get herd immunity as quick as possible before the numbers game favors the virus, its ludicrous to drag it out.

If the mutated strain out of Denmark would have begun circulating in the gen pop, assuming it had a different Serotype, this would have been a big problem (we may not have been able to irradicate Covid19 and it would have become more lethal) but this mutant strain looks to be contained. The world dodged a bullet over that one, maybe “thee bullet”. Covid19 and other beta coronavirus’s have has demonstrated itself to promote AGE or Antibody Dependent Enhancement. We do not want to have a second Serotype of Covid19 floating around, believe you me:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement

We won’t irradicate this virus without herd immunity, without vaccines. With a long enough lasting vaccine, herd immunity can be reached globally and this virus is no more, just like small pox and the measles etc. . That’s the best case scenario and it won’t come without a vaccine.

How do you get it into the thick dense skulls of anti vaxxers though? You could try the obvious truths, like the reason why small pox is gone from the human race is because of vaccines, small pox only killed, scientists believe, a half a trillion people over the centuries. The measles was highly infectious, only killing 30% of those infected, do we really want to normalize that all over again?

How do you tell anti-vaxxers it’s wise to have herd immunity to get rid of it? “Oh, my freedoms are violated, it should be up to choice, I hate needles, my DNA will be changed”. What’s worse, needles a few times over a lifetime, or mass death? Do we really need to shame anti vaxxers with put downs and comments of obvious dullard intellect brought upon by ignorance born awareness, it seems to be the only language that anti-vaxxers in general, understand! It’s observed here that antivaxxers, void of critical thinking, suffer from being socially stunted as well, am I wrong?

Is this why Trump followers buy in big to Trump’s crazy uncle 3rd rate stand up comic routine heavy on braggadocio and ugly put downs, is that why, because they, like Trump, are socially stunted? The only language they get or understand seemingly is narcissistic tropes? What, because someone like Trump says the virus survival rate is 99.7%, we’re supposed to believe it? Doctors are faking Covid19 death certificates for $ 2 grand a pop, we’re supposed to believe that too?

C’mon, people. It doesn’t have to be this hard. Took me 15 seconds to search and a few minutes to read herd immunity, could it be so hard. Repent from the ignorance of the ignorant, or face the lash of the whip of truth for we all end up sooner or later at a Y in the road, the road of choice, the symbolized letter of Pythagoras, the Samian letter, as Pythagoras so used as an emblem of the path of virtue or vice.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upsilon

#196 conan on 11.21.20 at 1:37 am

Taxing easy wealth seems like a no brainer to me. Boost the taxes on large chunks of cash earned with out effort or thought. That could be certain real estate transactions , some passive income scenarios, inheritances etc. I doubt Canada could do it alone, it would have to be a multi-lateral tax treaty.

#197 SoggyShorts on 11.21.20 at 1:58 am

#141 Ace Goodheart on 11.20.20 at 8:15 pm

Forced vaccination, like any forced medical procedure, is against international law, and always will be.

**********************
No one will hold you down and jab you, but restricting you from all sorts of things like schools, hospitals, airports, etc. is well within a government’s power.

#198 SoggyShorts on 11.21.20 at 2:04 am

#165 truefacts on 11.20.20 at 9:54 pm
For the same reason measles had to be eradicated. Or polio. Remember? – Garth

Sorry – please explain.

************************
1. Vaccines aren’t 100% effective
2. Some people can’t get them for medical reasons

So, we need as many people as possible to get it in order to protect everyone.
If we do it enough, then it’s gone forever like smallpox and no one ever has to get the shot again.

take 2 minutes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BUCi5Tuzms&feature=emb_logo&ab_channel=OxfordVaccineGroup

#199 SoggyShorts on 11.21.20 at 2:04 am

#139 I’m not a doc on 11.20.20 at 8:13 pm
How can these mad scientists whip up a vaccine that is 95%+ effective in less then a year?

***************
Try reading about it. Much of the groundwork has been done over the past 10 years.

#200 SoggyShorts on 11.21.20 at 2:07 am

#168 willworkforpickles on 11.20.20 at 10:04 pm
2 years of this clinical trial phase for a vaccination of this scope is a reasonable timeline to gain or lose this trust among the masses.
************************
2 more years of lock-downs?

#201 Corvette Chibers on 11.21.20 at 4:29 am

DELETED

#202 Alex on 11.21.20 at 5:02 am

BTW, if you think you’ll avoid being vaccinated, dream on.
Are they trying to re-write immunology books?! You get immunity (
1. after successfully battling the infection
2. after vaccine
3. T-cells cross immunity (after getting over a similar infection in the past)
Good luck with enforcing the ones that belong to group #1 and PLEASE, educate yourself and listen to the Canadian Dr. Hodkinson, who is in the business of selling COVID tests

#203 BillyBob on 11.21.20 at 5:25 am

#96 Shirl Clarts on 11.20.20 at 6:59 pm
#82 S.Bby on 11.20.20 at 6:38 pm
I’ll never fly in a 737 Max and as for getting injected with an unproven vaccine… well, you get the drift.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I trust the vaccine. Remember that everyone that works in a Hospital, worldwide, will be getting the dose first. I trust they have weighed the consequences of that, if something goes wrong.

But I will be staying away from the Max 8 for at least 18 months after its return to Canada. They’ll need to build a track record.

Never forget that not one, BUT TWO of these poorly designed aircraft crashed in the exact same way – a computer override (failed AI in a sense) took away the cockpit from the pilots. And they’re going to “patch” the software? Why not just remove it. The engine stall warning bell and light should be enough to get the pilots attention. I’d rather planes only crashed due to pilot error… like the old days.

================================

Nope. Almost all wrong. B737Max crashes were due to a criminally fault-intolerant system that, when it faulted, the current generation of pilots simply couldn’t cope with. The aircraft had flown for more than two years before the crashes – it was not an automatic death sentence. Things had to line up a certain way, and what is supposed to be the last line of defence – the pilots – were not up to the task when the time came. Yes, MCAS erroneously “took away” control from the pilots, but it did not take away their means of regaining it. They were simply incapable of identifying what that means was (removal of power to the stab trim). So they flew it into the ground in broad daylight after they had allowed their airspeed to increase to a point where it was aerodynamically impossible to overcome the malfunctioning system no matter what they did, sealing their own fate. Meanwhile reading checklists that didn’t properly match the confusing indications they were presented with. They completely failed to monitor the other basic elements of the flight over which they still DID have control, like thrust and speed.

Sorry, but that IS a very large component of pilot error, as much as most simplistic reporting wants to place all blame on the “Boeing Evil Corp”. Not every problem will fit neatly into a procedure to follow. When the checklists fail you, there has to be solid airmanship to fall back on. The fact that a system failed spectacularly to operate as expected is not an excuse in the moment.

Just as in all segments of society now, there is no longer an emphasis on basic practical skills, problem-solving, or critical thinking. Everything is by rote and reliance on technology. Hey, there’s an app for that. So when the tech fails, it’s far more likely to be an unrecoverable disaster now. When the internet router won’t revive with a simple reset it’s a minor annoyance. When it’s a critical system like MCAS, people die. It’s all part of the same phenomena.

Of course the design had to be grounded and MCAS thoroughly redesigned. Boeing deserves every bit of their 20 billion loss. But make no mistake, the redesign is so that it can accommodate the absolute lowest common denominator of pilot, and that bar as in all segments of society, is much lower than it ever has been.

If it isn’t obvious, I’d much rather see an increase in the resilience of professional aviators than trying to add endless layers of insulation against ever-lowering standards, that’s just me. But then I’d also like to see people a little more questioning of the tsunami of bulsh$t they eagerly lap up, and that ship sailed long ago. The masses want cheap, not quality. Goes for any product, service, or even idea these days.

People who say they’ll “never fly on a Max” are logically challenged. No doubt the same folks who jump into markets at the peak and bail at the bottom. It’ll be the safest machine in the skies. It’s the next “Max” you need to worry about, not the last one.

#204 BillyBob on 11.21.20 at 5:40 am

I’m guessing most of the rugged anti-vaxxer libertarian crowd don’t get out much. Certain vaccines such as for yellow fever have been for years legally required for travel to various places with proof of vaccination required to be shown prior to entry.

Don’t want the yellow fever vaccine? Totally your decision, but you won’t be able to enter the countries that require it.

Just sayin’, your protests are a little late. And lame.

#205 Sky on 11.21.20 at 7:10 am

Avoiding the vaccine isn’t any kind of dream for me. It’s my own inescapable reality. Anything beyond dinosaur drugs like Advil, sulfa or penicillin has a devastating effect on my body. A flu shot 20 years ago knocked me on my butt for 3 months with severe fatigue, myalgias and fevers so high I was hallucinating.

I am not alone here. Genetics vary. Many can tolerate the newer drugs while many cannot. Drugs/vaccines are NOT a one-size-fits-all solution.

My husband was crippled for 2 years after only 5 doses of a commonly prescribed fluoroquinolone antibiotic. This drug comes with a black box warning (USA 2008, Canada 2017). Too late for my husband. But the sports’ doctors at the Mayo Clinic were aware of the dangers all along because they banned it for use on the athletes they treated.

And our own veterinarian never used it either for the animals. He knew. The sad irony here is that my husband never needed ANY kind of antibiotic in the first place. This was a misdiagnosis. And it cost him a couple years of agonizing hell.

My sweet, but naive and bored, mother volunteered herself for a drug trial. That drug was Vioxx — which was later pulled from the market. But not before it killed 10s of thousands with heart attacks and strokes. Thank God my mother was luckier than that. All she suffered was a life-changing stroke. And she remains a fan of big pharma. Go figure.

So… I no longer have any interest in playing Russian roulette by offering myself up as collateral damage for the next pharma experiment. Others have their own reasons, I’m sure.

Calling people like us ” immoral and irresponsible” will no doubt become the prevailing sentiment once the MSM gets thru with us. I’m already hearing the clamor for mandatory vaccination on CNBC.

I think this forum is pretty balanced in that polls are showing a 50/50 split between pro & anti vaccination. And while the elites are pointing their fingers at the little people for stirring up vaccine caution on Twitter, Facebook or forums like this — they can point those fingers right back at themselves.

Because, how many people were turned off simply because Bill Gates was anointed as the early face of the vaccine rollout? A college dropout with NO medical degree. Red flag right there!

Initially it won’t be the govt making mandatory vax laws. These govt cowards will just continue to hide behind their zoom screens and play innocent. They’ll leave it up to the big corporations to do the imposing first. Only then will govt get in on the action.

Forced vaccination with a rushed vaccine is the red line in the sand for me. As it will be for millions & millions of others. Resistance to this will be huge. The govt knows this. And they deserve the blame for it. Because they have rightfully lost the peoples’ trust!

#206 maxx on 11.21.20 at 7:31 am

@ #4

“Show me your papers” is correct. Want to travel? Show me your papers, etc.

Only thing is, there is no way I’m accepting the Trojan horse version that “installs” itself into my DNA. I’ll take the old fashioned, nearly defunct version, thank you very much.

#207 Habitt on 11.21.20 at 8:04 am

Thanks again for your blog and perspective Garth. Don’t always agree with you or my wife. Utmost respect for you. Remember no good deed goes unpunished.

#208 George on 11.21.20 at 8:37 am

Dear Garth,

While there are certainly a few anti-vaxers here among us, please don’t put everybody who has a doubt about covid vaccines in the same bag.

Surely you know about “risk assessment”, and this is why some of us will wait a long while before getting a jab of any rushed-to-market, short-tested vaccine; with the companies making them absolved of all liabilities should anything nefarious eventually happen to those who were inoculated.

Either way its a gamble – risk taking an experimental vaccine or risk getting the bug. If the vaccine(s) prove to be safe a few years out, then I’ll gladly take it. In the meantime, I’ll take my calculated risks.

……………………

totally agree. Anybody that works in pharm/biotech knows this is rushed, very dangerous . Complete panic has set-in, both in public health and govt.

they r shutting down Toronto again, need i say more?

#209 neo on 11.21.20 at 9:02 am

For the same reason measles had to be eradicated. Or polio. Remember? – Garth

Garth,

Polio and measles were eradicated because the vaccines provided “sterilizing immunity” which by definition eradicates the the virus itself from existence.

These Pfizer and Moderna vaccines at best would offer “protective immunity” which means the virus would still exist. Asymptomatic carriers would still exist but the negative outcomes of seniors and the high risk individuals dying would be greatly reduced. Even then they have no idea how long this protection would last and would only apply to a particular strand and not a necessarily a mutated one.

None of what Pfizer and Moderna have done has been peer reviewed or put under scrutiny so you have no idea if they actually are going to do in real terms what they are saying. There is a lot of information missing from the press release and we have only been given small morsels of information.

It’s the equivalent of you as a custodian of people’s wealth basing investment decisions on a press release of a company. You wouldn’t do that. You would have Doug and Ryan “peer review” it and go over it with a fine tooth comb before you invested people’s hard earned money as part of an overall portfolio.

I am not sure why there can’t be nuance to this discussion and it has to be so binary and you are either “All in this together” or you are an anti-vaxxer that has to be pinned down and vaccinated at all cost.

#210 David Hawke on 11.21.20 at 9:31 am

#155 Outrage on 11.20.20 at 9:18 pm
I’m here in Puerto Vallarta relaxing for the winter.If you can can get out of Slavelandia for the winter do so. Its sad so many people will take the vaccine ,remember vaccines take years to develop and research. Drink the the kool aid or mean take the vaccine. If you can get a 2nd passport or residence and leave Kanada.Look at Demark, they will not be treated like sheeple and the take the vaccine.

Good advice, I retired to the tropics a decade ago have never regretted it for a minute.

Most here who refuse to be injected with the vaccine are NOT anti-vaxxers, merely against UNTESTED ones which enrich BigPharma and the quactors riding their coattails.

#211 Sky on 11.21.20 at 9:35 am

@ Abolitionist # 35

Thanks for bringing the Nuremberg Code up. This is one of the reasons forced vaccinations probably won’t be implemented via govt laws. They’ll come by way of corporations as a requirement to work etc.

The Nuremberg trials addressed the war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during WW2.

Some of the Nazis who were involved with the Holocaust were indeed executed or imprisoned. Although the Angel of Death, the infamous Dr. Mengele, escaped to South America. This much is common knowledge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josef_Mengele

But how many know about the abominable biological and chemical warfare ‘medical’ experiments inflicted on POWs and Chinese civilians by Japanese Unit 731 & Surgeon General Shiro Ishii ?

“Estimates of those killed by Unit 731 and its related programs range up to half a million people.”

The Soviet Russians wanted these mass murderers and torturers held to account and punished at Nuremberg. But… and here comes the most vile & disgusting thing imaginable… the United States granted them immunity.

“… General Douglas MacArthur, who was the Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers responsible for rebuilding Japan during the Allied occupations…secretly granted immunity to the physicians of Unit 731, including their leader, in exchange for providing America, but not the other wartime allies, with their research on biological warfare and data from human experimentation.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731

#212 DON on 11.21.20 at 9:38 am

https://nationalpost.com/health/not-going-to-end-the-pandemic-why-those-hopeful-vaccine-trial-results-are-not-all-that-they-seem

#213 willworkforpickles on 11.21.20 at 9:41 am

#201 SoggyShorts
“2 more years of lock-downs?”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….

The phase 4 segment of a clinical trial is all that more an important phase with vaccines than a new drug targeted for a specific disease or condition that is not widespread and spreading throughout the masses. Post Approval Research and Monitoring is also what it is aptly referred to. When a new treatment is approved by the FDA, learning more about the treatment’s longer term effects reasonably takes time for long-term side effects to appear. 2 years to get a handle on it isn’t an unreasonable timeline. I spent 15 years researching bio-tech (not viral related) and there have been some horrendous mistakes made by the FDA where post-approval research and monitoring activity saved many from adverse even deadly long term effects of an approved substance that was withdrawn.
Many will receive the vax initially. It could take 2 years before enough quantity of the vax is available to vaccinate whole populations at any rate. Those who do get the vax early will fulfill the protocol of a phase 4 study in the interim while the skeptical wait it out for those results.
As for 2 more years of lockdowns? Who can say? Society is going to have to adapt to whatever this way comes.

#214 Penny Henny on 11.21.20 at 9:57 am

#82 John in Mtl on 11.20.20 at 6:09 pm
#45 Jordan on 11.20.20 at 4:32 pm

“In regards to vaccinations, the Canadian Charter…”

So why not get jabbed? – Garth

It’s truly unbelievable that we even have to argue the dangers of being coerced to receive a rushed to production vaccine with BRAND NEW technology that has NEVER been tested for long term safety, created by notorious companies that are indemnified from liability.

Good. I get mine sooner. – Garth

////////////////

Good for you Garth, you are older and thus more susceptible to the virus.

Nothing to do with age. Everything to do with social responsibility. Overall, this blog disgusts me. – Garth

#215 Cto on 11.21.20 at 9:57 am

“governments have a far better idea of where to go for the new tax revenue they so desperately need in a post-Covid world.”

Yup, they know where to go. The place that will not be political death…balanced financial portfolios!!! Where there is real Cash that can be easily extracted.

You don’t think they will touch housing Garth???
That sector is shielded in platinum!

Financial investment returns are already taxed. Windfall real estate gains are not. Tick tock. – Garth

#216 R on 11.21.20 at 10:03 am

#189 Sara on 11.21.20 at 12:06 am
Interesting article for those of us trying to decode the thinking of Trump followers.
Simple : White Christian Republican

#217 The Nutty Epidemiologists - Covid party deserters on 11.21.20 at 10:06 am

Garth, plEase vaccinate yourself 20 times. The world has to get rid of your generation as soon as possible for the society to thrive. Covid or Ebola doesn’t really matter..
When looking at the way you parrot the idiocy and daily cretinism of world governments I shudder when thinking of what this motley cabal of autocratic gerontocrats and satanic billionaires has done to society in the last 20 years.

I don’t need you to post this, just read it and understand what u really are, conformism, groupthink, cheap govt propaganda,…not one iota of free and clear thinking..

Older Boomers have destroyed everything

Is there a reason, in providing a free blog of advice and an open forum, that I should be confronted with this? What in our world has made people think they can be abusive, hurtful and dismissive of everyone they disagree with? Today’s comments have taken us closer than ever to the demise of this site. And to a place of sad reflection in my heart. – Garth

#218 Ace Goodheart on 11.21.20 at 10:10 am

RE: #198 SoggyShorts on 11.21.20 at 1:58 am

#141 Ace Goodheart on 11.20.20 at 8:15 pm

Forced vaccination, like any forced medical procedure, is against international law, and always will be.

**********************
No one will hold you down and jab you, but restricting you from all sorts of things like schools, hospitals, airports, etc. is well within a government’s power.

/////////////////////////////////////////////

That is unlikely.

The airports I fly out of don’t have a lot of restrictions (I am a pilot myself).

Haven’t been to a school in a long time and not thinking about going back.

Hospitals? The only time I have been in one, was during the births of my children. Other than that, never had any use for them.

Doctors? Same. Waste of time. Invent illnesses for you, and then keep calling you back. It’s the “fee for service” model. You have to be sick all the time, or they can’t bill.

Take some time out of Canada. We are being told the USA is a death trap. Go there. You will see. No COVID tests, no quarantine.

Once you get out of Canada this whole “COVID-mania” just disappears (with the exception of Western Europe, where it continues to rage).

Even Australia has mostly opened up again. And no one there has been vaccinated.

We are half way through the second wave. Just hold onto your hats. It will get worse before it gets better. By spring 2021 this will be over.

Then if you all still want to get vaccinated in the fall of 2021, go ahead. More power to you.

You won’t need it by then. But if it makes you feel better….

#219 Ace Goodheart on 11.21.20 at 10:32 am

Re:

Re: #183 truefacts on 11.20.20 at 11:08 pm

“If you’re afraid of Covid, get the jab – but don’t force others to. Do we really want to go down the path of governments forcing people to do things “for their own good?” How does that usually turn out?”

/////////////////////////////////////////////

The vaccines are an incredibly difficult topic.

They were rushed into production, they are being used on an “emergency” basis, the companies that produce them have all secured themselves complete legal immunity should anything go wrong (you can’t sue if the vaccine hurts you).

They use a brand new technology to target an RNA virus.

This is the first time in history that a vaccine has been released that targets an RNA virus. All other vaccines target DNA viruses.

There is no long term study on their effects. We simply don’t know what they will do to your body 5 years from now. No one knows. Maybe they will do nothing. Maybe they will cause harm. There is no research.

On the other side of things, we need to establish herd immunity, which means 80% vaccination rate.

On top of that, the specter of mandatory, forced medical treatment is rearing its ugly head.

We are told, during a pandemic, there should not be a choice. If your government decides to inject you with something, you line up and get your shot. No argument. The government knows best.

I draw the line at mandatory medical treatment.

Up to the point where people are forced to take a vaccine, I am OK with it all. At the point where people are being forced, that is where it falls apart for me.

I am not going to make a lot of friends with that principle, but a person needs to have principles and to stand by them. Otherwise, you are just a leaf in the wind really.

I do not believe in mandatory medical treatment. It violates international law. It is unconstitutional. And it is a slippery slope, which is difficult to come back from once embarked on.

Medical treatment is always based on informed consent. No consent, no treatment.

That is the principle I rely on.

As I said, I am not going to make a lot of friends by saying that, but if you are not a man of your principles, what are you?

I think the government should advertise, should make every effort to get people vaccinated. They should try their best to get up to 80%.

But they should not cross that thin red line of mandatory medical treatment. That is a line you do not cross, ever.

If society values public health over all else, it’s an easy line to traverse. – Garth

#220 I’m not a doc on 11.21.20 at 10:34 am

Great blog Garth and thanks for your labelled comments. I am a risk adverse investor for the most part.

+++++++++++++

How can these mad scientists whip up a vaccine that is 95%+ effective in less then a year? The flu vaccine has been around since the 30’s – 40’s and was only 29% effective last year. Does that mean no more flu since covid is the baddest of the baddest.

“According to the CDC’s estimates for the 2018-19 season, vaccinating only half of all Americans prevented 4.4 million cases of the flu, 58,000 hospitalizations, and 3,500 deaths. That was in a year that the vaccine was only 29% effective.”

The anti-vax sentiment here is beyond credulity. You folks are immoral and irresponsible. – Garth

#221 Cto on 11.21.20 at 10:38 am

“Financial investment returns are already taxed. Windfall real estate gains are not. Tick tock. – Garth”

One thing I’ve leaned from living in this country…take what makes sense, and expect the opposite, especially when it comes to real estate!
Expect the housing market to be completely untouched… no cap gains tax, not a chance…

That is an unrealistic position. Prudent people will not keep all their net worth in a single asset. – Garth

#222 Gregory Danesh on 11.21.20 at 10:50 am

Garth, the bottomline is nobody that is in charge from banks to governments to pharmaceutical companies to anyone one else with lots of power and authority do not want to take responsibility but just take the money, profits, power, control. It is so corrupt.

#223 Doug in London on 11.21.20 at 10:59 am

Mandatory vaccination? I don’t entirely agree with this idea. If someone doesn’t have the basic kindergarten level common sense to see the merits of vaccination, fine. That makes more available for those who, like myself, will get vaccinated as soon as it’s available. If someone refuses and dies, that helps out the natural selection process Mr. Darwin figured out in the nineteenth century.

#224 Ace Goodheart on 11.21.20 at 11:08 am

If society values public health over all else, it’s an easy line to traverse. – Garth

If society values public health over all else, it is a line you never cross, and a door you never open.

The problem with doors, is once you open them, you cannot control who goes through.

Forcing medical treatment on unwilling people is a precedent. Once done, it can be done again and again.

You can say “just this once” but that is not how societies work. Doors once open, are very hard to close and you cannot control who goes through them after they are open.

Informed consent to medical treatment is a fundamental principle of a free, democratic society.

“Establishing herd immunity” to a virus that causes nothing more than a cold in 99.7% of people who get it, is not anywhere near enough of a ground to throw that principle away.

I don’t know of a situation where it could be thrown away. I don’t think there is one.

It is just so fundamental for me. Informed consent to medical treatment.

As I said, I won’t make a lot of friends with that principle right now.

But when fear is ruling the masses, and the masses throw away their principles and go with what fear is telling them to do, principled people are remembered by history as those who stood up to the madness, and who in the end were right.

It is always that way.

Children in the 1950s experienced vaccinations carried out in schools without express parental consent. As a consequence, diseases such as measles, mumps and chicken pox became virtually unknown by the children of the next generation. In the Fifties the US experienced 500,000 annual cases of measles alone, with a 2.6% fatality rate among kids. Universal vaccination ended it. This is public health. It overrides your myopic, selfish fears. – Garth

#225 Steerage on 11.21.20 at 11:17 am

220 Ace Goodheart on 11.21.20 at 10:32 am
Re:

Re: #183 truefacts on 11.20.20 at 11:08 pm

“If you’re afraid of Covid, get the jab – but don’t force others to. Do we really want to go down the path of governments forcing people to do things “for their own good?” How does that usually turn out?”

/////////////////////////////////////////////

The vaccines are an incredibly difficult topic.

They were rushed into production, they are being used on an “emergency” basis, the companies that produce them have all secured themselves complete legal immunity should anything go wrong (you can’t sue if the vaccine hurts you).

They use a brand new technology to target an RNA virus.

This is the first time in history that a vaccine has been released that targets an RNA virus. All other vaccines target DNA viruses.

….
Totally false… which shows you are scientifically illiterate spewing nonsense

https://www.americanscientist.org/article/viruses-and-vaccines-a-basic-flowchart-of-viral-families

#226 Jake McGreggor on 11.21.20 at 11:18 am

The government and central banks lie about inflation every month and that is the biggest tax of all on everyone. Does anyone really believe 0.70% annual inflation in Canada. Do not think so.

Like the other day with the covidmedia, it is not real news anymore and then they sneak in a food prices are rising story but then they say inflation is 0.70% a year. What a joke the media has become. Enjoy your covidtmas and your covidtmas tree.

#227 dogwhistle on 11.21.20 at 11:21 am

“Is there a reason, in providing a free blog of advice and an open forum, that I should be confronted with this? What in our world has made people think they can be abusive, hurtful and dismissive of everyone they disagree with? Today’s comments have taken us closer than ever to the demise of this site. And to a place of sad reflection in my heart. – Garth”

See my final comment, which I posted earlier. as you’ll probably read this privately. You have no obligation to leave the comment section on, the site is your private property.

The change in tone over the last few years from people is horrific, and g*d knows I haven’t always agreed with you but the people on here, it’s going too far. if I wanted to read abuse I’d go on parler or storefront or whatever it is called nowadays….

#228 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.21.20 at 11:24 am

At the risk of breaking my 30 day hiatus.
I may not get to ever comment again if this blog shuts down for good.

The creators of the internet thought that it would be full of new ideas, cooperation and harmony.

Instead it has eventually morphed into a bigoted, intolerant cesspool of hate , fear, ignorance and lies.

As much as I like a good argument I fear its time to shut down the comments section here and just post the daily topic.

A lot less incendiary than reading the daily paranoia spewed out by the easily swayed, bleating masses of angry, ignorant fools demanding their views must be heard and accepted…

#229 DON on 11.21.20 at 11:26 am

Up Early in BC. Couldn’t sleep not sure why but not tired.

Anyways the early morning banter seems to display an ncreasing anxiety as the virus months continue. Very understandable and as time goes on the combined variables will affect a larger pool of the population.

I believe in social responsibility and protecting the vulnerable amongst us. I just got my flu shot…with my oldest son in the room with me. My son grabbed my arm before he got his shot and that gesture reinforced my responsibility to him. The doctor thanked us for our civic duty and that made me think. We do not usually’ get the shot, but we may have vulnerable people in our household so we did. The risk was calculated based on years of knowledge. Pretty easy decision but convincing the kids was another matter. Yes the seasonal flu is not the same and all that jazz. Just taking some preventative measures that may or may not work.

The rest of the time we as a family wear masks when needed, social distance, stay within our bubbles and wash our hands. Now, I am not delusional that any of this can or will help but I will do my part…because in the end what I am currently being asked to do is no big deal. It’s a pain in the ass when I forget my mask and can’t go into a store then again I save more money.

There is also a social responsibility to develop safe vaccines and to provide people with hope based on fact. The wait and see approach needs to be applied to a lot of things. We should be focussing on what matters the most…peoples’ well being. Arguing about this pendemic is a big waste of time but perhaps it is a release of frustration.

As for Trump…he may not be in his current position had he cared for the people and not tried to belittle the pendemic. But remembering back in time a lot of people did not take the pendemic seriously from day one. Most changed their tunes as things got worse but Trump didn’t.

Where do we go from here…

We stop the panic and work to protect those who are most vulnerable…and we wait for a vaccinne and while we are waiting we follow measures that will protect others and we enjoy our lives.

Remember all the disbelief way way back in july/august with respect to a second wave. At the same time i haven’t seen an explosion in the death rate from a risk perspective.

#230 vit on 11.21.20 at 11:49 am

Just need your honest opinion would it wise to sell my house in mississauga , go to rent for a year and spend 1 million on buying 2 condos in Toronto .

#231 DON on 11.21.20 at 11:52 am

I should add to my previous post….we should be preventing all deaths with respect to COVID.

As Crowded suggested maybe it is time to shut down the comments for a bit…it pains me to say this as debate is invaluable. But part of me also thinks why let the nutbars and extremists win?

Time to unleash the hounds and remember the benefits this blog has provided us all.

Thank you Garth…you are my kind of conservative.

#232 Slim on 11.21.20 at 11:55 am

‘We’re not even at the peak yet’: doctor warns of pandemic burnout as second wave grows.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/pandemic-covid-coronavirus-icu-alberta-1.5809999

Then there are those people acting like teenagers with their “don’t tell me what to do attitude”.

Real consequences affecting real people.

Unbelievable!

#233 Sky on 11.21.20 at 12:02 pm

“Is there a reason, in providing a free blog of advice and an open forum, that I should be confronted with this? What in our world has made people think they can be abusive, hurtful and dismissive of everyone they disagree with? Today’s comments have taken us closer than ever to the demise of this site. And to a place of sad reflection in my heart. – Garth”

******************************************

The flip side of that = That post is representative of the type of abuse that those of us on the cautious side of the vaccine spectrum endure. But we get it from own families. Not an anonymous poster we can avoid. I’ve been in your place of sad reflection for many months already.

Caution & fear & abuse arise from a lack of honest information & all the propaganda we’re being fed. Bat soup and pangolins? Come on. If they can’t give us better info than this… is it any wonder people are suspicious of a miracle vaccine?

Where are the TV debates among boots-on-the-ground doctors and epidemiologists? A podcast with Gates and comedian Trevor Noah is a poor substitute.

Why do we have endless commercials with Tam telling us ” We’ve come too far to stop now?” But not WORD ONE about mask disposal which by all accounts should be a biohazard.

If I showed you the emails which one of our nieces shared, you would consider the abuse leveled at you a love letter in comparison. The abuse came from her 2 brothers. Her crime? She had visited with their mother this summer.

Her husband is a firefighter in Surrey. Was going for his chief exam but off now with PTSD because he couldn’t take the drug overdoses anymore. Said what they’re showing on the media is NOTHING compared to what’s actually going on since COVID restrictions.

This type of thing is going on all over this country. The media hides it. The govt hides it. There are HUGE costs in terms of lives lost and destroyed that have nothing to do with contracting the virus and everything to do with the utter disaster of a response to it.

And unless these state organs themselves become socially responsible by treating us like adults – by giving us some REAL information – instead of mushrooms to be cultivated in the dark…things will only worsen.

Without herd immunity the things you despair over will continue, multiple and be endless. Give your head a shake. You are showing selfishness. – Garth

#234 Robert Ash on 11.21.20 at 12:11 pm

I feel with current emergency type of living, many people are frustrated, and scared, and know their previous independent lives are being constrained. Social Media, in my opinion, simply amplifies, and re circulates, a lot of the negative concerns… Maybe the topics, on this Blog, should be limited to Financial issues, and not medical. Frankly only Health professionals, really have expert opinions, so maybe it is best to avoid, these discussions, and leave them for the Facebooks, and Twitters of the world…
There is no doubt however that Garth’s Blog, does provide many great ideas, and insights into the future. Also maybe the steerage section, should pause prior to pontificating, and ask, do I have a clue about my comments, or is this just re used commentary.

#235 Ace Goodheart on 11.21.20 at 12:23 pm

Children in the 1950s experienced vaccinations carried out in schools without express parental consent. As a consequence, diseases such as measles, mumps and chicken pox became virtually unknown by the children of the next generation. In the Fifties the US experienced 500,000 annual cases of measles alone, with a 2.6% fatality rate among kids. Universal vaccination ended it. This is public health. It overrides your myopic, selfish fears. – Garth

Children in the 50’s were required to be vaccinated in order to attend school. They were excluded from school if their parents would not permit vaccination.

No adult in Canada has ever been subjected to forced, mandatory vaccination, in our countries’ entire history.

No adult in Canada has ever been subjected to forced, mandatory medical treatment, without the ability to contest that treatment, before a review board, which is known as the consent and capacity board.

If they are found capable of giving informed consent, then they are free to decline the treatment.

The last time forced medical treatment of adults was carried out in the Western world, it was during the Third Reich in Hitler’s Germany.

The 1945 Nuremberg declaration outlawed it, and it was subsequently outlawed in international law.

You have a new vaccine, that has been tested for less than a year.

The people who make the vaccine, have said “the only way we will allow this to be injected into people, is if we are given complete legal immunity. No one can sue us if something goes wrong”.

They have been given their immunity. You cannot sue if the vaccine hurts you.

We then have people saying “make it mandatory”.

I am really surprised that more people cannot see what this does.

You are forced to undergo medical treatment, without the benefit of a review board, without your informed consent, and without the ability to refuse.

Your legal rights to sue those who created the medical treatment, and those who forced you to undergo it, are taken away.

Those doing this to us, say “it is for public health. Think of others before yourself”

Are you kidding me?

Everyone has gone nuts. It is hard being the only sane person in the room.

You just can’t take away all of a person’s rights like that.

I will fight that until my death if I have to.

Selfish, fearful man. Good luck. – Garth

#236 Oakville Rocks! on 11.21.20 at 12:33 pm

@229 This is news!

If CEF (#1) thinks the comments should be turned off.. probably the comments should be turned off.

I do wonder about Garth’s mental health having to read all that gets posted and the “stuff” that does not make the cut. I couldn’t do it – Garth must have the patience of a saint.

My dog acts as a great buffer from the world’s nonsense. It is impossible to not feel better / hopeful when walking or spending time with dogs.

I hope you are doing okay Garth.

#237 Leftover on 11.21.20 at 12:35 pm

#77 Shirl Clarts

“Leftover…..You obviously do not own your principal residence, but probably have a DB pension?”

I do indeed own my house, and a business, and a pretty decent B&D portfolio. No pension. Retirement very secure nevertheless.

The reason I want to see houses taxed is because they suck the life out of our economy and have ruined our kids’ futures.

Read this:

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/01/16/housing-is-at-the-root-of-many-of-the-rich-worlds-problems

#238 Sky on 11.21.20 at 1:04 pm

Well, Garth, I am sorry to have to tell you this but this whole thing is going to boil over unless the govt addresses the concerns of those who think the vaccines will be made mandatory.

And we need some real answers with irrefutable scientific proof. Not propaganda from pharma with their horrible track record of deceptions. And certainly not the censorship of first rate physicians who dispute the narrative.

Trump was elected because for far too long the legitimate concerns of his voters were neglected or mocked at. And look at that sorry outcome. This will be worse.

People here are on the verge of cracking up. And they’re already rising up all over Europe. There’s a pervasive sense of impending doom. Some are afraid of COVID. Others are experiencing pre traumatic stress disorder because nobody knows what the govt’s next move will be. Can I still operate my business? Will they force a vaccine?

There’s a very real possibility of violence here that can be directly attributed to the abject failure of leadership by the western govts and their unelected health bureaucrats.

#239 Pylot Project on 11.21.20 at 1:18 pm

This is how far we’ve come in nine months. From politely saying “gesundheit” to somebody who sneezes, to now, screaming and pointing like Donald Sutherland at the end of Invasion of the Body Snatchers.

Condo tower elevators are “mobile chambers of death”. Thanks Garth for my chuckle of the day. That’s a good one.

It’s a shame this comment section might shut down due to unprotected text. There are some genuinely good nuggets of information in here that actually manage to stay on point. But I get it Garth… what’s your time worth, having to monitor other people’s children?

#240 Diamond Dog on 11.21.20 at 1:29 pm

Is there a reason, in providing a free blog of advice and an open forum, that I should be confronted with this? What in our world has made people think they can be abusive, hurtful and dismissive of everyone they disagree with? – Garth

Some folks suffer from poor mental health and the numbers are growing. Poor mental health is often socially learned (some is caused by brain damage, some is a mix of physical damage, chemical imbalances, some is entirely socially learned). If we look at comprehensive list of mental disorders below, we’ll get some idea of just how widespread mental illnesses truly are:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mental_disorders

Concerning the comment you reflected upon, personality disorders number between 9 and 10% of the gen pop and every one of these disorders are socially learned at some level, often entirely socially learned. Political parties are fueling their development more these days with social media support to validate disinformation, a hallmark of poor mental health. We are seeing some of it playing out on a more grand scale with anti vaxxers, although it’s not as hard core, there are degrees of it, political leaders with personality disorders normalizing their behavior in politics:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EK4VRmG3yM

No need to bring up the words of the lost individual in question other than to say that such a comment reeks of discrimination, in this case ageism and materialism supported by typical false or deluded beliefs supporting a false sense of superior/inferior (trademark of all forms of discrimination). If left unchecked (some might say already there), a personality disorder is formed from learned social behavior. We can take our pick at the litter from there:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personality_disorder

Paranoid, Antisocial, Histrionic, Narcissistic, Sadistic, Self defeating, these personality disorders would be where a comment like that fits. With enough comment volume, it wouldn’t be so difficult to narrow it down to one or two. In short, the individual behind the comment is not well.

#241 Job#1 on 11.21.20 at 1:39 pm

Dear Sky,
Loved your piece the other day about a bad dream and the helpful shrink…

Having also been a victim of a prescribed drug that changed my body, my health and my life, I too have had my confidence in the medical establishment eroded.

To preserve whatever peace remains on this comments section, I will now self-censor and say no more.

#242 westcdn on 11.21.20 at 1:45 pm

One story my mother told me though my parents hid things from me and big time. I got really sick about 2 years old. Doctors did house calls in the days. I was in a coma with a bad fever. He thought I was going to die soon and he no idea what I was suffering.

My mother called my father to get home from camp because I was not long for the world. He booked a flight immediately.

Then my fever broke and I was running around when he arrived.

I have been trying to figure where to go. People tell me how smart they are. Actually fighting against the herd works for me.

I am looking for opportunities where people lose courage. May work for me or not.

#243 jal on 11.21.20 at 1:45 pm

[b]What I found on the web[/b]

1. Reinfections
What is the number of reinfection for the USA

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/more-people-are-getting-covid-19-twice-suggesting-immunity-wanes-quickly-some
More people are getting COVID-19 twice, suggesting immunity wanes quickly in some
By Jop de VriezeNov. 18, 2020

the number of genetically proven reinfections is orders of magnitude lower than that of suspected reinfections. The Netherlands alone has 50 such cases, Brazil 95, Sweden 150, Mexico 285, and Qatar at least 243.
That’s “bad news for those who still believe in herd immunity through natural infections,” she adds, and a worrisome sign for vaccines.

2. Kinds of tests for covid

https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/covid-19-test-types
3 Types of COVID-19 Tests, and Which One Is the Most Accurate
Confused about coronavirus testing? This guide lays it all out.
By Allison Duncan October 07, 2020

3. kinds of covid19 vaccines in development
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/pros-and-cons-different-covid-vaccine-technologies-explained-169291
by Suresh Mahalingam Adam Taylor
Each vaccine aims to use a slightly different approach to prepare your immune system to recognize and fight SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

However, we can group these technologies into five main types. Some technology is tried and trusted. Some technology has never before been used in a commercial vaccine for humans.
1. DNA/RNA-based
2. Virus vectors
3. Inactivated
4. Live-attenuated virus
5. Protein subunit
(too much info to cut & copy)
https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
The World Health Organization lists about 180 COVID-19 vaccines being developed around the world.
file:///C:/Users/owner/Downloads/novel-coronavirus-landscape-covid-19-(7).pdf

#244 Steven Rowlandson on 11.21.20 at 6:01 pm

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#245 Steven Rowlandson on 11.21.20 at 6:25 pm

It looks like Canadians don’t like communism by the front door from government or the back door via the private sector. Okay Canadians you can get off your knees and breath the sweet air of freedom… Your soldiers and God bought you that right long ago.

#246 Steven Rowlandson on 11.21.20 at 6:43 pm

RE#220

“On the other side of things, we need to establish herd immunity, which means 80% vaccination rate.”

Actually it means exposure and survival rate. Low level exposure to a pathogen will trigger the creation of antibodies and some people are just better able to resist disease due to genetics and other health factors that have an impact on the immune system like gut health, diet getting enough vitamins and minerals.

#247 kc on 11.21.20 at 11:25 pm

#239 Sky on 11.21.20 at 1:04 pm

nicely stated…. Fear of the unknown is what is at the root of all the harm coming our way. the government can’t lock down a free population at will and expect 100% happy people. It can be felt in stores that people are in very pissy moods and near snapping points.

Forcing agendas like mandatory masks and stuff just amplifies the situation. Masks are useless for the better part, but now mandated to placebo the scared into a false sense of security.

Humans are social creatures, and eliminating that basic need from their lives just adds to the trauma. Governments now are running scared from their own hype and propaganda to try and keep the masses tranquil.

I for one know that I am at my other half’s throat and we are fighting way more than ever from all this added stress. adding mandatory mask wearing to it just adds more crap to it.

Saving grace is we are not in any debts and holding bank. As now we don’t shop as much as it is too much hassle and whats the use. sorry for any store owners in today’s environments.

cheers

#248 Ingrid on 11.21.20 at 11:54 pm

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#249 Gary Loh on 11.22.20 at 12:01 am

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#250 Neo on 11.22.20 at 7:14 am

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#251 Prince Polo on 11.22.20 at 9:40 am

#206 Sky on 11.21.20 at 7:10 am
Avoiding the vaccine isn’t any kind of dream for me. It’s my own inescapable reality. Anything beyond dinosaur drugs like Advil, sulfa or penicillin has a devastating effect on my body. A flu shot 20 years ago knocked me on my butt for 3 months with severe fatigue, myalgias and fevers so high I was hallucinating.

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This seems to be one of the few (perhaps only?) reasoned explanations posted here for individual choice to avoid a vaccine.

However, all the others screaming, “but muh freedoms” or “i don’t wanna be micro-chip’d” really need to get a grip on reality. Part of living in society means accepting trade-offs to allow mingling with the same species!

How is that so hard to understand?

#252 Prince Polo on 11.22.20 at 9:55 am

Is there a reason, in providing a free blog of advice and an open forum, that I should be confronted with this? What in our world has made people think they can be abusive, hurtful and dismissive of everyone they disagree with? Today’s comments have taken us closer than ever to the demise of this site. And to a place of sad reflection in my heart. – Garth

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Time for the anonymous posters to grow up. Garth – may you please link comments to Facebook or LinkedIn profiles? I wonder how many would be so blatantly rude when their real names are attached to it? Not many, I’d bet. Perhaps a paywall for the truly demented, where all proceeds raised go to funding vaccine research?