Oh no.

Toronto, the burly premier said Friday, is staring down the barrel of another lockdown.

Remember that last one? House sales fell 62%. Showings evaporated. Listings crashed. The market just fell apart. Not only Toronto, but every major market in Canada. When Covid came, confidence left town.

Sit down. This time it could be worse. And it appears to be looming.

The virus is one frisky little pathogen. Combine that with pandemic fatigue and human nature, and the Second Wave may be far more consequential than the first. New cases are breaking records in most  provinces and cities, while this week US infections may hit 200,000 a day. The mainstream news is all-virus-all-the-time again. Emotions are high. Business closures are again imminent. And real estate’s in the crosshairs.

Why?

Because we went completely nuts following the first wave. Cheap mortgages, pent-up demand and a feeling we dodged a bullet, combined with WFH, nesting and a suburban rush led to galloping sales and exploding prices. As this pathetic blog spelled out, it was completely insane that we’d have a housing boom in the midst of a recession, record joblessness, economic disruption, historic deficits, political chaos and a global pandemic. But we did. Bad choices were made. Now some will regret that.

Lockdowns seem inevitable. Politicians are freaking. The real estate market will grind to a halt. This is taking place immediately after (a) record prices have been achieved, (b) family debt has been pushed to a new high, (c) huge numbers of condos have flooded the market after renters left and Airbnb choked, (d) more people will lose their incomes and businesses, (e) when we’re all emotionally exhausted and, of course, (f) when it’s almost winter. The weather sucks.

Here’s a harbinger. The eternal property-pumping Real Estate Investment Network (REIN) just published a report warning its army of specuvestor groupies to stand down and stand by. “All major real estate markets in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario have fallen further into the real estate slump phase driven mainly by the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic,” it says. Toronto, Vancouver and Ottawa are at the “beginning” of the slump while Calgary and Edmonton are in the thick of it.

“At first glance, it might look like the data is pointing towards a market boom because in many key cities, real estate values have been, and continue to, increase. But this is all smoke and no fire. This is a common misconception since characteristics of the boom and slump phases of the real estate cycle sometimes overlap and can be confusing to many if not most people.”

Meanwhile, after hitting a new record high for all types of properties (at $1,026,925) the Toronto market is starting to unwind. Fast. Deal numbers are falling. Open houses are already essentially banned. Showings will be next. If you want to buy  you’d better be prepared for the huge risks of doing so over Zoom or FaceTime.

After months of virus stress, a shortage of listings, FOMO, multiple offers, emotional buyers and that kneejerk flight from urbanity, the market’s fraying. “Real estate fatigue,” as one broker puts it. “It’s more difficult to put deals together because of the collective anxiety.”

Indeed. The first lockdown came with an immediate gush of government money and emergency actions by the Bank of Canada. Now we have an historic $340-billion federal deficit and interest rates that can hardly fall lower, with 1.5% mortgages. Infections are worse. Hospitalizations increasing. The news out of America hard to believe. And if all the coffee chops, hairdressers, gyms, retail outlets, dentists, offices, daycares and schools close again you can expect unemployment in a city like Toronto or Vancouver to soar.

Now, this is grim. It’s also realistic. Political leaders don’t want a big body count on their watch. And lockdowns may be the only way to squish this bug until the vax arrives in Q2 of 2021. Hopefully there will be another outcome. But…

Says Re/Max agent Meray Mansour: “The levels of anxiety are high. People are drinking a lot more. We don’t have the normal things that we do every day, like going to the gym or being with friends and family. There’s a lot more isolation. All that stuff affects us psychologically. And most people are not even aware of that. It’s kind of like this underlying factor… Sometimes when people are anxious, they make bad decisions.”

Sadly so. Soon to be realized.

207 comments ↓

#1 jal on 11.15.20 at 12:48 pm

T2 told the prov. Health, and education cannot count on getting infinite amount of money from the fed.

Geee!
Does that mean that I cannot get a $2,000.00 travel voucher. Does that mean the Fed. will give the money directly to the travel industry?

#2 Joe on 11.15.20 at 12:51 pm

I’ll believe it when I see it. Real estate is holding up strong in Canada. Roads and malls are packed in GTA. All this doom and gloom May come to fruition but I doubt it. Watch prices spike up again in spring/summer this time including condos.

#3 Dolce Vita on 11.15.20 at 1:03 pm

“Sadly so. Soon* to be realized.”

*already

———————-

“The mainstream news is all-virus-all-the-time again.”

It’s incredible to me to watch US and CDN news…it’s like basketballs full court press.

Italia’s MSM on the “frisky little pathogen” has been downright laconic by comparison.

Both Gov’s ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL this Summer. No added hospital capacity in beds or ICU’s.

Insane.

Threadbare Italia went from:

7,596 to 11,307 ICU beds

over Summer and Fall.

And the face saving Americans are using the term:

Mobile Morgues*

*a.k.a., Freezer Trucks

——————-

Too late. Too late.

Instead of raising the Healthcare bar so no “curve needs flattening” they gave $100’s of Billions to Cdns, $Trillions to Americans and put them out of work and business.

400,000 immigrants could have come to Canada, surely to God some of them are Healthcare personnel…but oh no, heaven forbid that idea. They’re all infected right?

Sounds like a plan to me…for self-immolation.

#4 Pandemic my derriere on 11.15.20 at 1:09 pm

Cases, cases, cases, cases, cases, cases, cases
!!!!

Deaths, deaths deaths, deaths????? Vere are they????

#5 Dolce Vita on 11.15.20 at 1:11 pm

“Toronto, Vancouver and Ottawa are at the “beginning” of the slump while Calgary and Edmonton are in the thick of it.”

Well Garth it takes for the memo to get out to everyone:

1. In the midst of a recession,
2. record joblessness, economic disruption,
3. historic deficits, political chaos and
4. a global pandemic.

And some, well they’re are just a little slow on the uptake. I mean, you know.

“…when people are anxious, they make bad decisions.”

No dung Sherlock yet, painfully correct.

———————–

When FEAR sets in rational thinking flies out the door.

Welcome to humanity.

Have a nice day.

#6 Barb on 11.15.20 at 1:12 pm

Emotionally exhausted.
Exactly.

And then we hear schools may close for a month versus the typical 2-week Christmas break.

#7 Damifino on 11.15.20 at 1:15 pm

I know a handful of folks for whom nothing has changed. For years they’ve been housebound on fixed incomes, interfacing with the world only via internet & TV. Until recently, I would not have said they were well adapted.

#8 belly rubs on 11.15.20 at 1:16 pm

If you are legit, yeah, things look wonky. But if you dabble, sell influence, or run under the radar, bdnz is brisk.

Berry Jack
Fill mason jars half full with berries.
Fill to 1″ headspace with boiled sugar water (5 cups per gallon)
Seal and wait until February.
Remove seals and freeze
Pour off alcohol which you then freeze and repeat.
Do not consume large quanities, contains good heart and nasty foreshots (esters, methyl)

#9 East Coast Life Style on 11.15.20 at 1:16 pm

No vax by Q2 2021, sorry Garth.

#10 Huh? on 11.15.20 at 1:23 pm

As this pathetic blog spelled out, it was completely insane that we’d have a housing boom in the midst of a recession, record joblessness, economic disruption, historic deficits, political chaos and a global pandemic. But we did. Bad choices were made. Now some will regret that.

————————————————

But stock markets at record highs also in the midst of all this, is totally rational?

Financial markets are more predictive than reactive. Surely you have learned that by now. – Garth

#11 KNOW IT ALL on 11.15.20 at 1:23 pm

TAKE COVER!!!

Spanish Flu – 2nd Wave – Monumental!!

https://images.app.goo.gl/RGq15m5Tvy6TJYbbA

#12 H on 11.15.20 at 1:27 pm

If recent history is an indicator- I should be buying four houses if we lock down… guaranteed profits!

#13 SOMETHINGS UP! on 11.15.20 at 1:37 pm

Takes a superior race to figure out this work/life balance thing.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1326616401726107649

#14 C V on 11.15.20 at 1:39 pm

If cases are SO much higher this wave than earlier this year, why are deaths lower? Have we really gotten that much better at treating covid patients? Or are we just testing more and we actually had higher case #’s earlier this year?

#15 BC Renovator on 11.15.20 at 1:53 pm

Garth, what do you think this means for Markets in the Short term? Thx

More volatility, but the direction remains. Markets are forward-looking, and this will all end. – Garth

#16 the Jaguar on 11.15.20 at 1:56 pm

Is that 10 Toronto Street in the second Instagram photo? Connie’s old pad? Mercy, I just felt a little wave of nostalgia wash over me, but thank dog it didn’t last long.

The most puzzling thing of all regarding this real estate state of affairs is why ordinary folks making wages that are in no way ‘stellar’ are so willing to take on such HUGE mortgages to squeeze themselves into very average homes. It reminds me of that old Dirksen line” Cautioning that federal spending had a way of getting out of control, Dirksen reportedly observed, “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.”
It’s kind of like that with money owed on real estate. A certain numbness has set in with debt. People have lost their minds….Mercy.

#17 Dolce Vita on 11.15.20 at 2:01 pm

JUST OUT, 4 h ago and I TOLD YOU SO (don’t get angry and not even, I’m just the opinionated, self-congratulating, rational messenger):

—————————————————————————-
“Covid-19: Normal life back next winter, says vaccine creator”
—————————————————————————-

Prof Ugur Sahin, cofounder of BioNTech as in the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine said this:

1. 90% oops…

“I’m very confident that transmission between people will be reduced by such a highly effective vaccine – maybe not 90% but maybe 50% – but we should not forget that even that could result in a dramatic reduction of the pandemic spread,” he said.

2. NOT an April Fools Joke…

“He said the goal was to deliver more than 300 million doses worldwide by next April, which could allow us to only start to make an impact”.

3. CODE for 2021 Autumn/Winter COVID-19 RELIEF…

“Summer will help us because the infection rate will go down in the summer and what is absolutely essential is that we get a high vaccination rate until or before autumn/winter next year.”

———————–

Kiss GOODBYE to GDP Recovery until late 2021 which is what I figured and that vaccinating Planet Earth will take some time even in Western Democracies and the G7.

Sorry Garth, you eternal OPTIMIST you, but the above is GOOD in that there is an END IN SIGHT, BAD that it is not SOON ENOUGH. Damn the DAMN VIRUS.

The very SAGE, ERUDITE looking Prof Ugur Sahin – add HONEST as well:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54949799

———————–

PS:

Prof. Sahin also talks about side effects in the BBC article. Apparently @sternde did some checking on their own:

“Like a bad hangover”: Test subjects report how they felt after the corona vaccination”

All I want to know is how bad a hangover are we talking about here?

Would that be an Oktoberfest hangover or Irish “pints in the round with 6 of my mates at Lunch” hangover?

https://www.stern.de/gesundheit/impfstoff-von-biontech-und-pfizer–probanden-berichten-von-corona-impfung-9491894.html

#18 MF on 11.15.20 at 2:08 pm

Yeah cases are going up, but this was long predicted and expected. We are already social distancing, washing hands, wearing masks, etc.

I don’t think there will be a widespread lockdown. The economy can’t handle it, and like the post mentioned, people are becoming stressed and exhausted.

I expect the more mini, targetted, local lockdowns to continue though.

Whereas no politician wants to be seen as the person to blame for covid running rampant, the flip side is no politician wants to be seen as the enemy of business, people’s livelihood, and their overall health either. This is not March. Things have changed. Even T2 mentioned that the benefits won’t be continuing unending.

Expect real estate to continue to go up throughout though. QE and continued zero interest rates, coupled with an uneven economic impact on the population basically ensure it. That is what we have seen so far and that will continue.

It’s what happens during recovery, when the stimulus ends that will be the real threat.

MF

#19 Tarot Card on 11.15.20 at 2:09 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
I have a question in regards to a post you made a while ago. It was about locking in capital Gains now before the rules change. And I agree with this strategy.
However I spent an hour this morning trying to find an answer to my question.

How soon after you sell a stock and trigger a capital gain can you repurchase the stock. Apart from the three day settlement rule. I cannot find anything that would impact CRA rules.
My strategy is to sell some ETFs and take the gain now. Then repurchase them after ? Days.

Thanks

Superficial loss rule = 30 days. – Garth

#20 Huh? on 11.15.20 at 2:19 pm

As this pathetic blog spelled out, it was completely insane that we’d have a housing boom in the midst of a recession, record joblessness, economic disruption, historic deficits, political chaos and a global pandemic. But we did. Bad choices were made. Now some will regret that.

————————————————

But stock markets at record highs also in the midst of all this, is totally rational?

Financial markets are more predictive than reactive. Surely you have learned that by now. – Garth

——————————————-

So why can’t real estate markets be “forward thinking” too?

Because the buyers are emotional basket cases. – Garth

#21 mike from mtl on 11.15.20 at 2:19 pm

#14 C V on 11.15.20 at 1:39 pm
If cases are SO much higher this wave than earlier this year, why are deaths lower? Have we really gotten that much better at treating covid patients? Or are we just testing more and we actually had higher case #’s earlier this year?
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Can’t speak for everywhere, but since the summer we’ve been ‘testing’ more than 3x the amount from the spring. Stands to reason the real number would have been far higher than is recorded. Unfortunately the old folks homes totally screwed up the first time around, letting the bug blow away so many and are no better today.

In addition quite a lot of the ‘deaths’ attributed in spring were “not epidemiologically tested” in other words a guess.

#22 Dave on 11.15.20 at 2:34 pm

Last lockdown ended and real estate boomed because of pent up demand.

Isn’t the exact same thing going to happen? Lockdown slow down and then boom….prices go up again?

(a) Mortgage rates are unlikely to fall further. (b) You should expect more economic damage with a longer recovery time. (c) The WFH/nesting phenom has already played out. It’s a gamble. – Garth

#23 Dolce Vita on 11.15.20 at 2:35 pm

ONE last salvo to all lovers of Sverige COVID-19 tactics (and don’t forget their foldable pink social distancing measurement stick and its efficacy).

LIKED by the ever so personable, down to earth and knowledgeable Dr. Abdu Sharkawy, CDN TV infectious disease personality and phenom, Tweeted by @Gab_H_R:

“[BIG red dot] SWEDEN Tegnell in May: “In the fall there will be a 2nd wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases is likely to be quite low.

… Finland will have a very low level of immunity. Will Finland have to do a complete lockdown again? ”

Autumn:

https://i.imgur.com/jMmKqxn.png

——————

A wonderful people the Swedes having been there many times from Malmö to Stockholm and north to Gällivare to see their Midnight sun but they have a COVID-19 stupid socialist re-engineering knucklehead Gov. in charge.

Sorry, but they do.

#24 D.D. Corkum on 11.15.20 at 2:37 pm

#12 C V on 11.15.20 at 1:39 pm

If cases are [higher] than earlier this year, why are deaths lower? […]

—-

A few possible explanations…

– More testing capacity

– More safety protocols for vulnerable groups

– More knowledge how to give care

– Delay from early symptoms until death

– The disease might be spreading amongst (on average) slightly younger populations than before

#25 Dave on 11.15.20 at 2:45 pm

So when are interest rates going up???

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/mortgage-rates-could-be-heading-higher-for-first-time-in-pandemic

#26 Lefty on 11.15.20 at 2:50 pm

*yawn* – the last Friday the 13th lockdown, we were all scared of the unknown.

With vaccines likely rolling out by Christmas (even the Russian one seems to work), we all know it’s going to be over.. sooner and faster than most people think.

#27 Captain Uppa on 11.15.20 at 2:54 pm

The mall near me in York Region was rammed this afternoon. Food court was full. People lined up around the Apple store and past the Old Navy for a masked picture with Santa (kids distanced in front of the fat jolly guy).

Makes no sense.

Why was I there? To quickly return something, thinking that it would be quick in/quick out.

#28 Sail Away on 11.15.20 at 2:55 pm

Well, if it comes, it comes. The first Corvid made summer and fall very relaxing with almost 2 full months of bird hunting… and also good market bargains.

If markets tank again? Buy, baby, buy!

#29 Sail Away on 11.15.20 at 3:04 pm

#19 Tarot Card on 11.15.20 at 2:09 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
I have a question in regards to a post you made a while ago. It was about locking in capital Gains now before the rules change. And I agree with this strategy.
However I spent an hour this morning trying to find an answer to my question.

How soon after you sell a stock and trigger a capital gain can you repurchase the stock. Apart from the three day settlement rule. I cannot find anything that would impact CRA rules.
My strategy is to sell some ETFs and take the gain now. Then repurchase them after ? Days.

Thanks

“Superficial loss rule = 30 days. – Garth”

—————-

Really? For gains? Never knew that.

Gains are counted and taxable when booked. Buy again when you want. Sell for a loss and repurchase, but only after 30 days, as stated. – Garth

#30 Dee on 11.15.20 at 3:06 pm

Garth Nine months have gone by and we now are finally getting some rapid testing kits. Why does it take so long to accomplish that here? There are countries that are doing quite well right now but what about this country? There were countries that actually did something like FORCE people to wear masks and they did mass testing and did proper quick contact tracing and built field hospitals. If we are way behind say in contact tracing could we not have used all the unemployed to do it? People that travel here have to wait 14 days in isolation and yet many come from places that have way lower rates of covid. Maybe it should be th opposite and we should have to actually pay them to even want to come here? While other countries have gotten rapid tests so their airlines can survive, in Canada we place demands on our industry that they should HAVE to fly to ALL destinations and also give money back to travellers while the companies lose over 10 million a day and in 9 months what has the government given them to survive? Garth Most of my friends no longer watch the news because they’re sick of it all. In my humble opinion we as a society have done our part but maybe what we need are people in charge who do theirs? Shutdown, open up, shutdown, open up, rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat and yet we expect different results? Go figure?

#31 kp on 11.15.20 at 3:06 pm

Seems to me that this recent lockdown campaign is all based on fear mongering and has little data back-up. Ditto for the spring lockdown. The clowns that predicted 3-5% death rates in the general population should be held accountable for their faulty work and the fools that made policy decisions based on this faulty work should be fired.

It’s so silly how people think that we can possibly control a virus using dumb things suck as lockdowns and masks. My filthy mask isn’t protecting neither me nor anyone around me.

It’s really disheartening to see grown adults push for lockdowns and masking of the general population. Why don’t we punch ourselves in the face while we’re at it.

For anyone that likes to look at the data Ontario has released a limited version of the numbers.

https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data

The big scare is that more people are testing positive. Yes it’s true but they are also testing 4X more than in the spring. If we tested the same as spring time new infections would be showing about half of the numbers in spring.

A lot of news coming in that the tests are funky town as well. Elon Musk tested positive on 2 and negative on 2. Also how in the world is ‘the flu’ down 98% this year hahaha I’m lmao. This lie is one for the books. We will look back at this huge lie and deception in a few years with disbelief.

Taking bets that this flue decrease is because the ‘scientists’ or our super high tech faulty tests are saying that you’re sick (flu or whatever you may have) it’s all going in the covid column. Covid tunnel vision… you got a pee you got covid.. You got a poop… must be covid hahaha

I say no more lockdowns and no more masks. For everyone that is too chicken to live in the real world you are welcome to hide out in your cave. No one is summoning you out… stay hunkered down as long as you want :) For the rest of us let’s get on with it.

#32 Faron on 11.15.20 at 3:07 pm

#1 Smart Alec on 11.15.20 at 12:37 pm

Even worse …. our Costco will finally be making masks mandatory tomorrow … after 8 months. Can you believe it? What is the world coming to?

I will be asking for my membership fee back … online … of course. Too dangerous to go there in person, you know

So you will forgo saving hundreds a month in grocery bills so you dont have to wear a mask for an hour a week? Your cost benefit analysis is skewed bud.

#33 45north on 11.15.20 at 3:11 pm

Meanwhile, after hitting a new record high for all types of properties (at $1,026,925) the Toronto market is starting to unwind. Fast.

“the Toronto market is starting to unwind” and I’m guessing that means the GTA and outlying places like Georgetown, Barrie and Durham. Ottawa too.

Sometimes when people are anxious, they make bad decisions.”
Sadly so. Soon to be realized.

And the problem is social isolation. Everybody’s socially isolated because of Covid anyway. On top of that, what are you going to do if you’ve just bought a house you cannot afford?

I guess this is the test. God help us.

#34 Diamond Dog on 11.15.20 at 3:15 pm

:(

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/15/coronavirus-numbers-cases-deaths-us-ip-king-vpx.cnn

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctJFO6esLGc

#35 Sheesh on 11.15.20 at 3:18 pm

#30 kp on 11.15.20 at 3:06 pm
I say no more lockdowns and no more masks. For everyone that is too chicken to live in the real world you are welcome to hide out in your cave. No one is summoning you out… stay hunkered down as long as you want :) For the rest of us let’s get on with it.
…..
Are you saying that because things are going so well in the States with that approach?

#36 MF on 11.15.20 at 3:22 pm

#27 Captain Uppa on 11.15.20 at 2:54 pm

Vaughan Mills?

It makes complete sense. There is not much else to do.

I go there fairly often. You’ll notice everyone has a mask, washes their hands, and tries to distance as best as they can. To me it shows if people follow the rules, life can go on fairly well.

MF

#37 kp on 11.15.20 at 3:24 pm

#30 kp on 11.15.20 at 3:06 pm
I say no more lockdowns and no more masks. For everyone that is too chicken to live in the real world you are welcome to hide out in your cave. No one is summoning you out… stay hunkered down as long as you want :) For the rest of us let’s get on with it.
…..
Are you saying that because things are going so well in the States with that approach?

….

Sheesh stay at home :) US deaths are down from the spring.. look at the numbers. Stop watching cnn.

#38 Oracle of Ottawa on 11.15.20 at 3:25 pm

Okay. I think I know how this goes now.

Everything is going to shit. The earth is going to open up. Meteorites are going to fall from the sky.

However, if you have a balanced portfolio then everything is just hunky dory.

Ignorant. – Garth

#39 Bezengy on 11.15.20 at 3:32 pm

St. Catharines will decide this week if they’ll implement AirBnb rental restrictions similar to Toronto. It’s getting harder and harder to make a buck on real estate.

#40 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 11.15.20 at 3:50 pm

Unfortunately what we are seeing are the consequences of an economy with a major part being service oriented ( tourism ,warehousing, housing) . The only government plan seems to be to bring in more immigrants to make up for lack of real value added revenue generating industries. Ofcourse we need immigration in Canada but we also need to ensure we have a vision as to where we want to be and where will the GDP come from.
If we are to grow up we need a real ” No Canadian left behind” plan which is pragmatic and not ideological driven. We must go back to the rule of common sense.
The current so called Real Estate “reset” is needed as to clear the current generation of specuvastors and long term unfortunately teach a big portion of buyers that system inertia is real , and choosing to buy in the bunnies hoping you can find a greater fool at some point in the future is well a ” fool’s errand”. Jobs will go back to the cities either to corporate inertia,governments desire to control or globalist agenda; one way or the other hope that all of those buying hours away from the city centres are ready for a weekends only place and rent a closet to live in during the weekdays close to where the jobs are.

#41 TurnerNation on 11.15.20 at 3:50 pm

Send Ace’s post to everyone you know.
The governments of the world, in tandem have taken away the Means of Production for many.
There’s a word for that system (“New System”) on the tip of my tongue.
This one:

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/11/14/slice-dice/#comment-748384

#42 Ace Goodheart on 11.15.20 at 3:57 pm

Here is an interesting situation:

It is now illegal to leave the UK:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902029/Holidays-abroad-outlawed-strict-new-winter-lockdown-rules.html

This means that you can’t actually get on an airplane and get out of the country. That is illegal.

Meanwhile, if you are able to somehow escape from the prison island that is now the UK, perhaps on a modified boat made out of an old car, or as a stowaway on a freighter ship, and you do manage to make it all the way to Africa, you will be greeted with this situation:

https://www.visitmorocco.com/en

That’s right. Morocco is open. And warm, sunny, full of exciting things to do.

So for all you history buffs out there, this is a new low for the UK.

For the first time in recorded history, if a person wants to live as a free, independent, rights bearing human being, they have to first escape OUT of the UK, breaking the law against exiting the UK in the process, and then manage to get themselves to Africa, where they will then be able to live as free people again.

What a weird world we live in!

#43 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 11.15.20 at 4:00 pm

#39 Bezengy on 11.15.20 at 3:32 pm
St. Catharines will decide this week if they’ll implement AirBnb rental restrictions similar to Toronto. It’s getting harder and harder to make a buck on real estate.
===================
Good,AirBnB is plague and should be eradicated in its current form. It is unacceptable as a homeowner who just wants to live peacefully in a place to find themselves in a hotel. If we want AirBnB then legislate areas ( buildings,subdivisions) dedicated to it and then you at least know when you buy in the vicinity. Same goes for rental places, as a homeowner I really don’t want to have a tons of rentals next to me. Again hopefully the current market will dissuade some hobbyist landlords ,unfortunately human nature will be that others will rise to take their place driven by HGTV and ofcourse the lack of governments to build rental stock.

#44 Faron on 11.15.20 at 4:03 pm

#28 Sail Away on 11.15.20 at 2:55 pm

Well, if it comes, it comes. The first Corvid made summer and fall very relaxing with almost 2 full months of bird hunting… and also good market bargains.

If markets tank again? Buy, baby, buy!

They are set up for a 10% discount in the near future.

#45 dosouth on 11.15.20 at 4:05 pm

“You can hide but you cannot run.”

Feel free to use my quote. All these lockdowns, small groups, no groups, clubs, no clubs, mask, no mask, 8 ply masks and on and on. Yes I get it, science is evolving….so is guessing game.

You made a very good point, “The mainstream news is all-virus-all-the-time again.”

This virus was designed to up-end and it is doing just that. Vaccine or no vaccine hiding regardless where or how, isn’t going to end well…..either.

#46 belly rubs on 11.15.20 at 4:06 pm

I was curious if you would let that fly, kudos. It’s just a recipe for prison wine. Seemed apt.
#8 belly rubs on 11.15.20 at 1:16 pm
Typo: the comma after ‘quantities’ should be after ‘consume’.

Just to soothe some angst, Canadians are resilient and generally a hoot in recessions. We innovate some crazy shortcuts. Good times if you enjoy simple pleasures.

#47 Dolce Vita on 11.15.20 at 4:10 pm

#26 Lefty

I hope you are correct.

Though, one vaccine creator disagrees with your timing.

Read my Comment #17 Dolce Vita.

#48 Ace Goodheart on 11.15.20 at 4:12 pm

Re: #17 Dolce Vita on 11.15.20 at 2:01 pm

Covid vaccine: Neither myself nor my children will ever be injected with this.

Look at the fatal COVID cases in Canada. Over 80% are LTCH residents. That means octogenarians or above.

If you take away that 80%, you are left with a virus that is much, much, much less deadly to the general population than influenza is.

It doesn’t even register on the scale.

To date, 10,947 people in Canada are thought to have died of COVID (allowing for the weird registration requirements where if someone had COVID, and then got hit by a bus, their death was registered to COVID because they were COVID positive when they died, no matter the actual cause of death).

If you take 80% of 10,947 that is 8757.6 people. Subtract, and you get a whopping 2189.4 deaths of people who were not LTCH residents.

Of those 2189.4 deaths, how many were improperly ascribed to COVID due to the “death by any cause while testing positive for COVID, is counted as a death from COVID” problem?

How many had pre-existing conditions that made them more susceptible?

How many were children under 18? (answer, none to date).

You are injecting your child with an experimental vaccine, that has reportedly very strong side effects, to protect them from what? A cold?

No thanks.

#49 S.O on 11.15.20 at 4:13 pm

The infection rates may be up in the US but the deaths have stayed the same, which means the virus is not as deadly as they say. Take care of yourself and don’t panic, it will all be okay.

#50 millmech on 11.15.20 at 4:16 pm

/www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/11/08/how-long-are-you-contagious-with-covid-19-asymptomatic-woman-sheds-coronavirus-for-70-days/?sh=565c87cc32c6
So much for self isolating for 14 days, you could test positive, self isolate for 14 days and head out and spread it around for another 8 weeks. You could even go in and get tested and have a false negative.

nationalpost.com/news/world/elon-musk-tests-positive-for-covid-19-and-negative

#51 Camille on 11.15.20 at 4:17 pm

As always, thank you for your thoughts Garth. A balanced, diversified portfolio has served me well until now, and through the pandemic so far. I considered shorting the S&P several times this year (expected cost 3% of what is hedged). On the one time I did I lost some when I closed the position. I rebalanced marginally mid year, and in September, and that’s all. I’m currently down about 3% year to date ex-dividends and interest, and even if dividends and interest are included (maximum drawdown -19%). Its Garth, and like people – advisors that drive non-institutional investors to stay invested, avoid making mistakes.
If like I you wonder what is really happening, check out Jeffrey Gundlach’s presentation (all charts) on the current status of markets and life. You may be surprised to discover an economy which on the whole is functioning, despite areas of serious distress, and pain and suffering by some underserving hard working people. That’s the way it is.

Jeffrey Gundlach CIEBA presentation 10-20-20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuUnZFrR3K0

#52 Tulips on 11.15.20 at 4:18 pm

#29 Sail Away on 11.15.20 at 3:04 pm
——————————————–
Correct me if I’m wrong, but superficial loss rule is for losses only. Realizing a capital gain and buying the same capital property again just pulls forward the payment of taxes. Gov’t doesn’t mind that. If the inclusion rate increases, you win. If it doesn’t, you lose opportunity cost on the early taxes paid. Again, correct me if I’m wrong.

Yes, a superficial loss = a loss. – Garth

#53 Tulips on 11.15.20 at 4:21 pm

I agree with the headwinds coming against housing with the second wave, but there’s always more fuel to add to the fire. Watch for 40-year amortization to return at the first sniff of trouble. Housing is the Canadian economy, must keep it up at all costs.

#54 Northshore guy on 11.15.20 at 4:27 pm

Garth, you may be right about this for Toronto but I disagree for lower brainland.

If there is another lockdown, sales/listings fall and interest rate remain below 2% then expect a hot spring market due to pentup demand.

As I have said before, people here will pickle themselves in debt no matter the price as long as they can afford the monthly.

If rates go to 3% then yes prices may stall.

#55 NANCY LAZAR on 11.15.20 at 4:32 pm

If anyone still believes corunka V is not an average Flu resulting in the average annual amount of deaths globally, your a fool. The test itself is faulty and allows for a large amount of false positives. There is a global agenda abrew. Turn off your TVs, and stop being Low IQ.

#56 paulo on 11.15.20 at 4:32 pm

#39 Bezengy

Air B&BS type operations should be banned except for permitting single
room short term stay hosting within a individuals primary residence. this ghost hotel / tax evasion scam is a major contributor to the problems we are facing in the real estate industry.

#57 Diamond Dog on 11.15.20 at 4:36 pm

#31 kp on 11.15.20 at 3:06 pm

The clowns that predicted 3-5% death rates in the general population should be held accountable for their faulty work and the fools that made policy decisions based on this faulty work should be fired. It’s so silly how people think that we can possibly control a virus using dumb things suck as lockdowns and masks. – kp

Since you called me a clown…

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

You see the death rate on the above rate at 3%, do you see it? Do you see the percentage of deaths in the closed cases on the link below, do you see it?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

People are dying from this, not to mention this pandemic just spent 6 months through the northern hemisphere (where most people live) during the spring, summer and early fall months were the initial viral loads of infection are at their lowest. I’ll repeat since you are obviously not all that aware, informed, mannered (and as a consequence somewhat dim), during the summer when large flocks of the population is outdoors and sunlight is at it’s max, initial viral loads of infection are at their lowest. Now, with winter at our doorstep herding everyone indoors from the cold, short days of winter, all of that has changed. People are going to get much higher viral loads of infection with this airborne virus (with less of that sunshine vitamin D I might add) and as they do, they will get sicker and deader. We can expect this percentage to go up in time as it takes time for the dead to hit the system.

The only thing that can reduce the initial viral load of infection is masks which is apparently a big challenge for some. No small surprise there, the mentally challenged complain of challenges all the time, its the one thing they get right.

#58 Dolce Vita on 11.15.20 at 4:42 pm

#24 D.D. Corkum

Good ideas save the last one:

https://i.imgur.com/LVulBh0.png

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html

———————–

Now what boggles my mind (and I’m all for wearing masks etc.) is this from the above figure:

Deaths of Working Age Canadians from COVID-19, Ages 20 to 65 (assume 1/2 the 60-69 cohort is still working):

741

From the Labour Force Survey, Oct. 2021, labour force size:

20,370,300

Which means this many working age Canadians died due to COVID-19:

0.003638%

Render the elderly harmless, you know, rapid test everyday care personnel entering an LTC facility. Have on call workers if too many test positive. For live at home Seniors do what they do in Italia where the Civil Protection Agency brings them groceries and drugs, checks up on them, etc.

If not enough people in Canada to do the above, then I suspect 400,000 immigrants that have been said no too, may contain more than a few ‘000 that are qualified healthcare professionals.

As for the young, let them go back to work, for the Love of God.

And, too late, increase hospital and ICU beds so if the young go back to work, they know if they get sick they will be taken care of promptly and not have to suffer at home in self-isolation or even die at home BETTER Rapid Test them for peace of mind.

1st Wave give World Govs a pass nobody knew until Italia began to report the severity of COVID-19.

2nd Wave and the time after the 1st Wave, asleep at the wheel Gov’s Canada:

EPIC FAIL.

HOW TO WRECK an ECONOMY and THE LIVES OF the GOOD PEOPLE of Canada.

And so far, ALL of them responsible where there was an election got re-elected.

That is what FEAR does to a person.

-FWIW

#59 willworkforpickles on 11.15.20 at 4:45 pm

One couple like many others bought a house in N Toronto for $1.5 million. Locked in 5 years just under the 2% mortgage rate paying approx. $3k monthly.
They will pay off 100k a year with difficulty making ends meet along the way leaving $1 million left owing in 5 years. They will renew then likely 3 times above today’s rate (6%) with their monthly payments doubled to approx. $6k monthly. Not being able to maintain at that level they will be forced to sell competing with hundreds or even thousands of panicked sellers in the same boat.
In times of quickly deflating prices, it would be a miracle to sell and get as much as a $1million.
This scenario doesn’t factor a national rate hike in the next year or so that would put rates that high but factors change of external magnitude in the next several years.
Change of this magnitude:
A shift from the U.S. dollar as leading World Reserve Currency. A shift that is happening and change that will come.
China, and other emerging powers like Russia, have been making agreements to move away from the U.S. dollar in international trade over the past few years. The supremacy of the U.S. dollar is not nearly as solid as most Americans believe it to be.
With the U.S. economy fading, the U.S. dollar won’t continue to function as the primary reserve currency of the world. Rapid change is taking place most Americans aren’t aware of.

This is a list with 10 reasons why the dollars status as the World Reserve Currency is nearing its end.
#1: China And Japan use own currencies in bilateral trade.
#2: The BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa to use own currencies when trading with each other.
#3: China and Russia use own currencies in bilateral trade.
#4: Chinese currency use grows in Africa with China as their biggest trading partner.
#5: China and United Arab Emirates to use own currencies in bilateral trade.
#6: India uses Gold to buy oil from Iran.
#7: Saudi Arabia likely to abandon use of Petrodollar in dealings with China.
#8: The United Nations continues to push for a new World Reserve Currency.
#9: The IMF is pushing for a New World Reserve Currency.
#10: Most of the World hates the United States.

The end of the dollars reserve status will greatly diminish America’s standard of living.
Expect massive inflation, high interest rates on mortgages and other assets. Substantial increases in the cost of food, clothing, gas and a much harder time financing the national debt will follow.

The global financial system is centered on the United States. This shift in its entirety will not happen overnight, but changes are happening and are ongoing. Under the right conditions, a shift in momentum may become a landslide that comes with quick unsuspecting force…forcing change on the people of North America.

The bond market differences between Canada and the US nonetheless equate to interest rate parity. In 5 years time…(expect) don’t be surprised if rates rise considerably in lock step with US rates.

#60 Dolce Vita on 11.15.20 at 4:50 pm

Last diatribe Comment…

Labour Force Survey, Oct. 2021*

*2020

——————

I’ve got 2021 branded in my brain since that’s when we will begin to see the end of the DAMN VIRUS. Mea, numerically challenged, Culpa.

#61 cuke and tomato picker on 11.15.20 at 4:56 pm

Just relax everything will be fine. Enjoy your family and grand children. Watch a Christmas movie. Take a break.
We had a perfect day for mulching leaves on south Vancouver Island even enjoyed the sun at 9 degrees.
Children on bikes and scooters. Lawn mowers going.
People walking and talking while 6m apart. A cheerful day we will soon be getting ready for Christmas.

#62 Ace Goodheart on 11.15.20 at 4:58 pm

Re: #58 Dolce Vita on 11.15.20 at 4:42 pm

The scary thing is we are about to ask our doctors to basically break the hippocratic oath:

We are asking them to inject children, whom we know suffer almost no effects from COVID, with an experimental vaccine, that could harm them or cause them to have serious side effects.

There is almost no research as to how the COVID vaccine effects kids. All of the participants in the trials have been adults.

We are asking the doctors to do this, NOT for the benefit of the kids.

We know they don’t need this vaccine. It will not help them at all. It could harm them. We have done no research.

We are asking that doctors vaccinate children from COVID in order to help OTHER PEOPLE.

Old people. People over 80. Grandparents.

For the first time in recorded history, a sector of our society, namely our children, is going to be deliberately harmed, in order to protect another sector of our society, namely the elderly.

This is sick.

Explain ‘deliberately harmed.’ – Garth

#63 JPICKETT on 11.15.20 at 5:09 pm

Back in the early 1960’s my parents took us kids down to Detroit to visit relatives. The city was bustling with a vibrant black culture with Motown sound evolving. 3 or 4 years later the chant was Burn Baby, Burn. Why? A massive job loss and a departure of white people. Now we have Torontonians fleeing in droves not only to the suburbs but well beyond. Will Toronto The Great end up like Detroit? Stay tuned.

#64 kp on 11.15.20 at 5:10 pm

to ‘Diamond Dog’
#31 kp on 11.15.20 at 3:06 pm

Since you called me a clown…

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
.

I do not see a 3% general population death rate. I see a 0.0166% death rate. Come on son… do the math. 7.8 billion divided by 1.3M deaths.

See it’s precisely our great math education that gets us in trouble. A 3% general population death rate would be insanely scary and that’s what the PHDs were calling for… but the same way they can’t model the s&p they cannot model a virus.

Easy solutions… diamond dog…. put on a mask and stay at home. Wave to your neighbor through the window. Let the rest of us get on with it.

#65 jess on 11.15.20 at 5:16 pm

And to of those deniers anti mask /vax freedom believers, (who seem to put their faith in the ramblings of felon -roger stone) are soon going to learn what rationing health care is about!

#66 pk on 11.15.20 at 5:18 pm

Ace Goodheart I completely agree. This is insanity. We are sending school ages kids to isolation rooms if the have any symptoms. Come that’s a bit ridiculous. They are kids. Kids are sick all the time. Anyone you have ever taught knows that kids are walking, talking snot producing machines.

Diamond Doug there is no 3% general population death rate. Do the math. 7.8 billion people. 1.3M have died. 0.01666% death rate. Learn math and don’t trust everything you read on the news including JHU. Their initial reporting and wording was so irresponsible especially coming out of a university.

#67 Learn2investkid.com on 11.15.20 at 5:18 pm

Tough for many people out there. Can’t rely on salaried/ small business/rental income alone. Dividends from our ETF’s and stocks keep coming in. Many companies have actually increased them. Put money to work during March/April lows so solid blue chip stocks are up big time. 38% gain on CPD ETF. Thanks Garth!

#68 jess on 11.15.20 at 5:19 pm

And to of those deniers anti mask /vax freedom believers, (who seem to put their faith in the ramblings of felon -roger stone) are soon going to learn what rationing health care is about!

#69 Drinking on 11.15.20 at 5:19 pm

I tried to post this before but it crashed on me; timed out for whatever reason or maybe it is a sign! :)

In the investment front there this little story that nobody or very little tuned into; the largest trade deal signed by the Asia Pacific nations; this should make things interesting.

https://nationalpost.com/news/economy/asia-pacific-nations-sign-the-worlds-biggest-trade-deal-encompassing-almost-third-of-global-gdp/wcm/0fcbc4c8-c222-47e0-9ea8-b71c3edacae4

On the opposite, check out the top ten countries who have the most bankruptcies.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/insolvency-bankruptcy-covid-1.5798319

#70 Linda on 11.15.20 at 5:27 pm

It is true people are weary of the virus & the fallout from trying to contain it. Noticed a lot of people putting effort into holiday decor in our neck of the woods – I think they just want to celebrate hope & try to brighten things up a little. Also, despite colder weather lots of people are still getting outside for some daily exercise. Since the virus isn’t going away any time soon, best to count one’s blessings. As said in Monty Python, ‘I’m not dead yet’:)

#71 Penny Henny on 11.15.20 at 5:27 pm

#32 Faron on 11.15.20 at 3:07 pm
#1 Smart Alec on 11.15.20 at 12:37 pm

Even worse …. our Costco will finally be making masks mandatory tomorrow … after 8 months. Can you believe it? What is the world coming to?

I will be asking for my membership fee back … online … of course. Too dangerous to go there in person, you know

So you will forgo saving hundreds a month in grocery bills so you dont have to wear a mask for an hour a week? Your cost benefit analysis is skewed bud.

////////////////////////

Faron sometimes you sound so smart and then you say stuff like the above.
Saving hundreds per month on groceries, do tell.

#72 Tarot card on 11.15.20 at 5:31 pm

Thanks for answering my question Garth.
To Dee
To be honest I have been totally disappointed in our collective governments in Canada.
Rapids tests are recommended by Dr. tam they are used widely in the US

And yet no deployment in Canada ? Why?
I challenge any premier to go on record and explain why rapid testing does not work?

The easiest solution everyone does rapid testing every day. If you test positive stay home, simple.
And the government of Canada tracking app should be mandatory for all Canadians, get over it, your phone tracks you within 2 feet everywhere on the planet.
App is secure no personal information you are assigned a number.
Easy solutions but no one can explain why simplicity is not the answer.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/rapid-tests-slow-to-be-used-1.5802415

#73 Dolce Vita on 11.15.20 at 5:34 pm

#62 Ace Goodheart

I mean, you know, in Italia you arrive at Fiumicino Airport they will Rapid Test you in UNDER 30 MINUTES. That whole process includes standing in line, getting tested and lounging around waiting for your test results.

To my knowledge, the’ve been doing that for almost 2 months now.

Canada, with $100’s of billion tossed over to displaced workers and businesses can’t get enough RAPID TESTS for its people?

I mean here is one of them from Italia, results in 2-10 minutes:

https://www.menarinidiagnostics.it/en-us/Home/Laboratory-Products/COVID-19/COVID-19-IgG-IgM-Rapid-Test-Cassette/Features

Here is another home test kit, results in 10 minutes:

https://primahometest.com/it/covid-19_test_sierologico

Price in Italia for similar test kits, 12 month shelf life:

€30 + sales tax (about CDN $47)

And here you can buy them without a prescription:

https://www.panorama.it/news/salute/abbiamo-comprato-test-rapido-sierologico-covid-19

(the above has a tutorial video by a purchaser)

————————–

CERB money to Oct. 4 before it got changed to something else:

$81.64B

=$81.64B/$47 per kit

= 1,737,021,277 Rapid Test Kits

=46 kits for every man, woman, child, “other” in Canada (37.59M population).

Why I said Gov’s Canada with all the cash they spent:

EPIC FAIL.

—————-

Again, FWIW.

#74 fishman on 11.15.20 at 5:35 pm

Faron, your first clue is the nom de plume ; after that your on your own. Remember, serious replies to people like that only encourages them.

#75 Dolce Vita on 11.15.20 at 5:36 pm

#62 Ace Goodheart

I mean, you know, in Italia you arrive at Fiumicino Airport they will Rapid Test you in UNDER 30 MINUTES. That whole process includes standing in line, getting tested and lounging around waiting for your test results.

To my knowledge, the’ve been doing that for almost 2 months now.

Canada, with $100’s of billion tossed over to displaced workers and businesses can’t get enough RAPID TESTS for its people?

I mean here is one of them from Italia, results in 2-10 minutes:

https://www.menarinidiagnostics.it/en-us/Home/Laboratory-Products/COVID-19/COVID-19-IgG-IgM-Rapid-Test-Cassette/Features

Here is another home test kit, results in 10 minutes:

https://primahometest.com/it/covid-19_test_sierologico

Price in Italia for similar test kits, 12 month shelf life:

€30 + sales tax (about CDN $47)

And here you can buy them without a prescription:

https://www.panorama.it/news/salute/abbiamo-comprato-test-rapido-sierologico-covid-19

(the above has a tutorial video by a purchaser)

————————–

CERB money to Oct. 4 before it got changed to something else:

$81.64B

=$81.64B/$47 per kit

= 1,737,021,277 Rapid Test Kits

=46 kits for every man, woman, child, “other” in Canada (37.59M population).

Why I said Gov’s Canada with all the cash they spent:

EPIC FAIL.

—————-

Again, FWIW.

#76 Vancouverite on 11.15.20 at 5:48 pm

DELETED

#77 kp on 11.15.20 at 5:59 pm

Ace Goodheart I completely agree. This is insanity. We are sending school ages kids to isolation rooms if the have any symptoms. Come on that’s a bit ridiculous. They are kids. Kids are sick all the time. Anyone you have ever taught knows that kids are walking, talking snot producing machines.

Diamond Doug there is no 3% general population death rate. Do the math. 7.8 billion people. 1.3M have died. 0.01666% death rate. the media was reporting 3-5% death rate in the spring and telling us that 70% of us would get the virus. lies and lies.

#78 Doug t on 11.15.20 at 6:08 pm

#61 cute

Do you take Valium?

#79 FriedEggs on 11.15.20 at 6:11 pm

Without the mask – their would be no visual representation that ‘something was wrong’ in the world.

And as for the vaccine, im allergic to aborted fetal tissue, does terrible things for my digestion. Plus, I dont think J.C. would recommend or approve.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WI-38

#80 Dutchy on 11.15.20 at 6:17 pm

Interesting alternative perspective on home ownership (from down south)

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/09/inheritance-work-middle-class-home-ownership-cost-of-housing-wages

Now or never….still many opportunities in Canada !!

(Unless you have lots of capital to play the markets with)

#81 Tron Light on 11.15.20 at 6:18 pm

Look at the charts of who is being “infected.” It is mostly the 20-29 crowd. Then look at the charts of who is dying. It is mostly the 70+ crowd. Still to this day, those most at risk, the elderly in LTC homes, are still the majority of people who are passing away from the virus. You would have thought that after the first hit in March and April where the elderly were hit the hardest, the politicians and public health officials, knowing that there was going to be a second wave, would have done more to protect those people. Yet, they have failed once again and on top of that, their only answer is to close up businesses that probably those in LTC homes would never frequent anyway.

Today’s CBC story about the latest in Ontario said that 80 deaths occurred in LTC homes over the last week, with 7 occurring in a Scarborough LTC home. Manitoba reported 10 deaths – 7 of them in LTC homes.

This is the real tragedy of Covid which could have been mitigated with strengthening measures in LTC homes but nothing was done in the summer months to do it. And then everyday people are being blamed if granny dies when it has nothing to do with somebody who may not wear a mask or who may have a family gathering.

Politicians and public health officials should be held accountable for the failure to protect the elderly in LTC homes but nothing will happen except they’ll lock down the whole province, as if that makes any difference.

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.20 at 6:24 pm

While the world’s most powerful man is hiding in his bunker, the Chinese just forged a huge Free Trade agreement with Japan, Korea and 12 other countries.
2.5 Million people, 1/3 of global GDP.
That’s what happens when you go America First.
With whom is Canada gonna trade?
Trump pissed everyone off.
Time to reduce your bets on America?

#83 Nonplused on 11.15.20 at 6:30 pm

Calgary won’t be too badly affected by a second lockdown because it didn’t really open back up. The oil price situation meant there weren’t any jobs to go back to anyway.

I suspect some people are ready to start feeling the pain. The amount of money I’ve had to spend on new appliances, furnace, water heater, and other maintenance in the last year has been staggering but at least my wife is still working (she was WFH for years before covid) and I had some money set aside because you can sort of see that stuff coming. But I think there are a lot of people raiding their RRSP’s and HELOC’s.

The road ahead is going to be a long one for Calgary. Even once the covid goes away we need to see the world economy rebound such that oil prices rise maybe to the $60 range before there will be any serious hiring. That could take years.

And no, the green economy isn’t the answer. We’ve got lots of sun and wind but can’t realistically export much electricity. We’re too far away from anything, except maybe BC but they are awash in hydro. It makes far more sense for California to build their own windmills with the money than build a transmission line to Alberta. Plus there is a lot of “line loss” when you try and transport electricity that far. This is why they usually put the power plants as close to the cities as they can. Sometimes in them. Calgary has 2 new cogens that may as well be in the city limits.

Canada will never realize Trudeau’s dream of exporting green energy to the US. They will cover Arizona and Nevada in solar panels first. There just isn’t any economics in building transmission lines all the way to a place that only gets 8 hours of sun for 5 months of the year to get your solar power.

So my point is don’t by real estate in Alberta if you are expecting to see appreciation in the next 5 years. It won’t happen. And if Biden goes ahead with his carbon neutral plans (which won’t be achieved, but hey they say it is good to have goals) it could go on a lot longer than that. A declining energy sector means a declining Alberta. Tell your kids to learn to code and move to the US.

#84 Brian Ripley on 11.15.20 at 6:40 pm

My UNEMPLOYED and EMPLOYED in Canada Including Quebec, Montreal, Ontario, Toronto, Alberta, Calgary, British Columbia, Vancouver charts and tables are up with OCT data:

http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html#Rate

Trickle down economics continues to widen the wealth gap (see my June 20, 2020 post on “Household Networth”; the table illustrates that only 20% of Canadian households have over $1,000,000 in net worth according to Parliamentary Budget Office in June of 2020.

Our new Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem said on June 22, 2020 “Our main concern is to avoid a persistent drop in inflation by helping Canadians get back to work.” The argument is that low rates of interest will stimulate the corporate markets to invest in production, hire more labour units and as wages rise produce more consumption GDP which Canada relies on for an “economy”.

Well it did not take a global pandemic to spoil that trickle-down plan. What did happen was that Canada joined the upper ranks of global unaffordable housing (Demographia), and irrational exuberant bubbles in “paper” assets as the corporate and private sectors inflated the fixed income and equity markets leaving the consumer to leverage itself and forgo savings in order to maintain lifestyle.

#85 suburban coyote and pup on 11.15.20 at 6:41 pm

Ace Goodheart #48 and #62. Best comments of the day. RN front line for 25 years chiming in here….be very careful and do your own research and due diligance before blindly accepting this hastily manufactored and aggressively promoted vaccine ….for your own good Comrade.

Onf55

#86 suburban coyote and pup on 11.15.20 at 6:42 pm

Ace Goodheart #48 and #62. Best comments of the day. RN front line for 25 years chiming in here….be very careful and do your own research and due diligance before blindly accepting this hastily manufactored and aggressively promoted vaccine ….for your own good Comrade.

Onf55

#87 suburban coyote and pup on 11.15.20 at 6:42 pm

Ace Goodheart #48 and #62. Best comments of the day. RN front line for 25 years chiming in here….be very careful and do your own research and due diligance before blindly accepting this hastily manufactored and aggressively promoted vaccine ….for your own good Comrade.

Onf55

#88 yorkville renter on 11.15.20 at 6:53 pm

But, Trump said no one would talk about Covid after the election – that it would just disappear… was he lying, or are left wing mobs getting infected to make Trump look bad?

#89 Ace Goodheart on 11.15.20 at 6:55 pm

“Explain ‘deliberately harmed.’ – Garth”

– the vaccine has side effects.

We know that.

Side effects are “deliberate harm”. We do not know how bad the side effects will be for children. But we know they will be harmed. We are doing that on purpose.

With medicine, there is harm and reward. Chemotherapy is quite harmful. But if you have cancer, it can also save your life.

Vaccines that children get when they are babies, have side effects. But they also protect from deadly child hood illnesses.

Surgery damages your body. But it can save your life.

With a COVID vaccine, there is no positive effect, whatsoever, for the child being injected. It does them no good.

But we know it causes them harm. How much harm is debatable. We know it will harm them.

So we are actually prepared to hurt little kids, in order to help older people.

This, is sick. Quite disgusting…

#90 Terry on 11.15.20 at 6:58 pm

…………..so how did wearing masks work out for y’all……….new infections are soaring to new heights. Told ya so! Masks don’t work. Keep up the crappy work Canada, your country is being destroyed from within.

#91 Phylis on 11.15.20 at 7:03 pm

Can I have a superficial sale to my significant other?

#92 Head Chef specializing in Lame duck l'ronge on 11.15.20 at 7:04 pm

Maybe that’s why those four astronauts are going to the space station tonight. They don’t want to stay for things to get worse.

Little know fact: Since Bob & Doug took the dragon the first time they programed it so in order to launch the astronauts have to sing Cooo, loo, coo, coo, coo, coo, coo, coooo!
Cooo, loo, coo, coo, coo, coo, coo, coooo!

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.20 at 7:09 pm

Sailo,
Wake up. You’re missing the blast off of Spacex.

#94 Wrk.dover on 11.15.20 at 7:13 pm

#65 pk on 11.15.20 at 5:18 pm
Ace Goodheart I completely agree. This is insanity. We are sending school ages kids to isolation rooms if the have any symptoms. Come that’s a bit ridiculous. They are kids. Kids are sick all the time. Anyone you have ever taught knows that kids are walking, talking snot producing machines.

Diamond Doug there is no 3% general population death rate. Do the math. 7.8 billion people. 1.3M have died. 0.01666% death rate. Learn math and don’t trust everything you read on the news including JHU. Their initial reporting and wording was so irresponsible especially coming out of a university.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

7.8 billion cases now?

#95 Ace Goodheart on 11.15.20 at 7:15 pm

Re: #65 pk on 11.15.20 at 5:18 pm

Ace Goodheart I completely agree. This is insanity. We are sending school ages kids to isolation rooms if the have any symptoms. Come that’s a bit ridiculous. They are kids. Kids are sick all the time. Anyone you have ever taught knows that kids are walking, talking snot producing machines.

//////////////////////////////////////////

It’s absolutely nuts.

I am told “we need to vaccinate your kid”. I ask “why?”

The answer: to protect old people.

What?

An invasive medical procedure, putting something into my kid’s arm, to protect someone else?

My society has gone nuts.

Medicine is to help the individual. A doctor’s highest calling is to her/his patient. They are to only act so as to help the patient. They cannot harm the patient.

Now they are supposed to use an experimental vaccine on our children, to protect old people, from kids?

I am completely disgusted with my society. We are a bunch of cowards. 100 years ago, we would have laid our lives down to save our children.

Now we put our children at risk to save our wrinkly old butts?

Disgusting.

#96 Big Reset coming on 11.15.20 at 7:19 pm

Garth, will you advise your readers how to save some of their property and wealth from the oncoming great reset led by Justin Trudeau?

#97 CJohnC on 11.15.20 at 7:20 pm

#42 Ace Goodheart on 11.15.20 at 3:57 pm
Really Ace, that Mail Online article is old news first published on Nov 1 updated on Nov 5 and then run again today to keep it sensationalized. If you read the UK government rules, you will find that everything except pubs, restaurants and saying you are going on “vacation “ is excepted. It also currently is only on place until Dec 2nd.

Air Canada still runs a full complement of daily flights to LHR and they wouldn’t be doing that if there were no passengers. (Actually they would just to maintain their landing slots, but that’s another story)

#98 Shirl Clarts on 11.15.20 at 7:23 pm

Yup. its going to get alot worse before it gets better. the fatigue comment is spot on. we could have also fixed the phoenix.

The one thing this virus is highlighting is how bad our health care system really is. imagine the health cae investments we could have made with 300 billion.

I think the vaccine will be rolled out by our military reserves in mall parking lots the moment it becomes available. There will be a mad push to get as many people pricked asap!

oh, and the “stand down and stand by” line gave me a good chuckle. Garth, you are totally dialled in. You would be a fun person to get drunk with.

#99 Chief Pilot Antifa Air great deals on soup see our website on 11.15.20 at 7:24 pm

62 Ace Goodheart on 11.15.20 at 4:58 pm

Good God the youngest to die from covid was a baby, several children of other ages have also. It’s true that children so far seem to fare better with it but not always as with those kids I mentioned.

The vaccines, especially the mnra versions, stimulate your own immune system to fight it. That’s really more conspiracy theory acceptance than any kind of critical thinking. Like the rest of the antivax nonsense, based on falsities and nonsense. Don’t vaccinate for measles, what’s the worst that could happen other than your kid could die from measles. Why vaccinate for polio or so many of these other diseases except that you prevent the misery they cause and when enough are vaccinated it protects the population. They had a head start on this research because of sars. The clinical trials are to find out the safety and efficacy.

#100 Ken on 11.15.20 at 7:24 pm

There must be some blame for Trump causing COVID in Canada, what else could it be? It’s not Canadas fault. On the plus side, the BIDEN vaccine will save everyone, and if there is a lockdown, we Canadians are ensured ( and expect) more government support for everyone. Any worry about real estate is overblown in my opinion.

#101 the Jaguar on 11.15.20 at 7:35 pm

“Says Re/Max agent Meray Mansour: “The levels of anxiety are high. People are drinking a lot more. We don’t have the normal things that we do every day, like going to the gym or being with friends and family. There’s a lot more isolation. All that stuff affects us psychologically. And most people are not even aware of that. It’s kind of like this underlying factor… Sometimes when people are anxious, they make bad decisions.”

There was an ‘episode’ in my hood in Calgary yesterday that reinforces the above statement. Police vehicles on the scene, etc. Some poor soul that unravelled. I admit I saw it coming.

Was reading about the famous Lindbergh kidnapping case in 1932 earlier today. Apparently kidnapping and car jacking were all the rage during the Big Depression. Who knew? Could it happen again?

If this slippery Covid slope continues, which seems likely, peeps are advised to keep a watchful eye out on all that is precious. Talking about your dogs and cats. Felix…are you listening?

If anybody grabs Fishman and throws him in the trunk of a 1961 Black Lincoln Continental, Jaguar might have to recall the Smith & Wesson Model 29 to active duty. Shoot the tires out. Go ahead, make my day.

#102 Dogman01 on 11.15.20 at 7:37 pm

Because the buyers are emotional basket cases. – Garth

Garth, any idea how much of the equity market in NA is professionally managed vs individual retail investor?

Real Estate is 90% retail buyer I would suspect…so emotion driven.

#103 Long-Time Lurker on 11.15.20 at 7:50 pm

>Garth, I just saw these Twitter videos out of China, today. It looks like that very dangerous strain of Wuhan-400 is still circulating in Red China. These are the kind of videos I saw back in February. This is why I didn’t report them back then. It would have created a panic. You should very well delete these.

Jennifer Zeng 曾錚
@jenniferatntd
At #Liaoyuan City, #Jilin Province, #China, on Nov 14. Seeing someone fall to the ground(I won’t say what’s wrong with him, you draw your own conclusion), the onlookers laughed out loud.
11月14日,吉林遼源市,有人倒地不起,旁觀者笑出了聲。
視頻來源:
@tw_tomy_
8.1K views
0:01 / 0:20
9:05 AM · Nov 15, 2020·Twitter Web App

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1328021294374334464

Jennifer Zeng 曾錚
@jenniferatntd
Here you go again. In #Chongqing City, #China, today. People get used to it and are not alarmed at all. Official media say there was an “imported” #COVID19 #CCPVirus case yesterday.
11月15日,重庆又見隨地倒。官媒說昨天有一 #中共病毒 “輸入”案例。大家都習慣了。
視頻來源:
@tw_tomy_
8:49 AM · Nov 15, 2020·Twitter Web App

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1328017377045458944

#104 Steve French on 11.15.20 at 7:59 pm

WWSMD

What Would Smoking Man Do…

#105 Steve French on 11.15.20 at 8:01 pm

The Jaguar might like these Jaguar Skills

Jaguar Skills – Nervous 90’s Hip Hop Revisited Mini-Mix

Featuring Black Moon, KRS-One, Smif-N-Wessun, Funkmaster Flex, and Mad Lion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KyBYGzBQhhc

#106 Pandemic my derriere on 11.15.20 at 8:04 pm

#88 Terry

You are absolutely right we are watching the destruction of the West by the diabolical and congenital CRETINISM of its own “leaders”…more like idiot puppets on a string being played by the Chinese..

#107 Faron on 11.15.20 at 8:13 pm

#70 Penny Henny on 11.15.20 at 5:27 pm

#32 Faron on 11.15.20 at 3:07 pm
#1 Smart Alec on 11.15.20 at 12:37 pm

So you will forgo saving hundreds a month in grocery bills so you dont have to wear a mask for an hour a week? Your cost benefit analysis is skewed bud.

////////////////////////

Faron sometimes you sound so smart and then you say stuff like the above.
Saving hundreds per month on groceries, do tell.

Hi Penny

I don’t shop at Costco, but I hear they have good deals,. Maybe not a couple hundred a month, but certainly there are some savings if people are willing to contend with epic lines?

Maybe a bit overwrought, but that’s what happens when I write on my phone while sitting on the porcelain throne. And forget to forward slash the closing HTML tags…

#108 Sail Away on 11.15.20 at 8:15 pm

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.20 at 7:09 pm

Sailo,
Wake up. You’re missing the blast off of Spacex.

————–

And once again… it was magnificent.

Elon the Awesome.

#109 Faron on 11.15.20 at 8:34 pm

#55 NANCY LAZAR on 11.15.20 at 4:32 pm

If anyone still believes corunka V is not an average Flu resulting in the average annual amount of deaths globally, your a fool…stop being Low IQ.

I guess it takes one to know one NANCE. Excess death data make it clear that COVID is killing many more than flu does. Still waiting for one of you COVID minimizing, elderly-under-the-bus-throwing, mask-fearing geniuses to explain why very high excess deaths ave been and continue to be concurrent with COVID outbreaks. Have at ‘er NANCE, Ace, Long time lurker, Do we have all the facts, n1tro (I bet that or some variant is your online banking password BTW) etc.

#110 zoey on 11.15.20 at 8:39 pm

Every area is different I know but in my area of Toronto there are 4 perfectly fine homes that have been sitting for sale about 6 weeks now. According to House Sigma the absorbtion rate for all of Toronto, all property types is sitting at just 11% half way through November. Does that sound like people are tripping over themselves to buy to you ? At least not in my area they are not.

#111 Faron on 11.15.20 at 8:42 pm

#82 Nonplused on 11.15.20 at 6:30 pm

Plus there is a lot of “line loss” when you try and transport electricity that far.

Uh, BCHydro makes good money selling power to California.

High tension lines have very low loss. A few percent over hundreds of miles. Better performance in cold conditions (i.e. Canada).

http://insideenergy.org/2015/11/06/lost-in-transmission-how-much-electricity-disappears-between-a-power-plant-and-your-plug/

With a well connected grid like the US’s, slewing power around is trivial and comes with little penalty. It’s a shame that Trudeau is building you an oil pipeline when they should be building out the grid.

#112 S.Bby on 11.15.20 at 8:45 pm

“the vax arrives in Q2 of 2021”

No it won’t.

#113 Neo on 11.15.20 at 8:45 pm

Covid context…

The epicenter of the first wave was New York. They peaked at 10,000 cases a day and 1,000 deaths.

What about the second wave?

5,000 cases a day and 28 deaths.

The focus on cases is dumdfounding. Much like Ontario and Quebec. New York butchered the LTC situation and allowed 30,000 people to die in the 1st wave. That never should have happened. Especially since that isn’t happening now.

#114 Apocalypse2020 on 11.15.20 at 8:49 pm

Total catastrophe lies ahead.

PREPARE

#115 Neo on 11.15.20 at 8:56 pm

At #93 Ace Goodheart

To your point. In Ontario last time I checked I believe the number was 12 people under 40 has died of Covid. Or had Covid at the time of death to put it more accurately. Even if you extend it to people under 50 it’s 40 deaths.

Under 50 the recovery rate is 99.95% yet people are being told it’s necessary to take this vaccine to save your life and others?

The sad thing is vaccines in general are only 10-30% effective with seniors and 50 to 60% for the general population. That 90% Pfizer is throwing out there is a bold face lie. Particularly ones with health issues to begin with who are prone to complications. So even the segment of the population that needs it the most are being given false hope here.

#116 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 11.15.20 at 8:57 pm

My inner curmudgin is outed by the Covid releasing the power of “no spending during the traditional Christmas fiesta”. No anxiety, maybe I can buy that special ETF. There is nothing more supportive for your finances like staying away from people and stores to bolster your finances and your health. I have found my inner Bill Murray.

#117 Terry on 11.15.20 at 8:58 pm

As an aside…………..Trump has a HUGE surprise coming very shortly for the Demoncrats.

Stay tuned………….and after the fact…………I told ya so also!

#118 Hamish42 on 11.15.20 at 9:12 pm

Be sceptical of what you read- several UK papers reported that travel out of the country was banned, but when the legislation was published it has no mention of travel in it. So you can leave the UK quite easily, in fact I just have. There is a 14 day quarantine when you get back but it is lightly enforced. There is a push to persuade people not to travel, it has nothing to do with the virus, the UK now has plenty of that, no need to import a few more cases.

#119 FreeBird on 11.15.20 at 9:25 pm

Let’s hope all new viral vaccines are better tested then current flu vaccines for not just efficacy but safety based on large study reviews incl Cochran (new studies may be ongoing). Phase III trials usually take 3 yrs. Realistically most know no drug comes clean. It’s cost (neg effects) vs benefit. MDs/pharmacists have told me the same. Before taking any drug incl vaccines I like to see good independent studies showing net benefit but respect the rights of those who choose diff incl close friends.

Research debate on accelerating vaccine trials:

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4258

#120 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.20 at 9:32 pm

#106 Sail Away on 11.15.20 at 8:15 pm
#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.20 at 7:09 pm

Sailo,
Wake up. You’re missing the blast off of Spacex.

————–

And once again… it was magnificent.

Elon the Awesome.
—————-
NASA did not allow him close.
They have a strict Covid protocol.
Can you imagine the Americans sending the first Covid virus into space.
The cosmonauts in the Space Station would go bonkers.
Can you beat somebody senseless in zero gravity?

#121 truefacts on 11.15.20 at 9:39 pm

And the government is being sued because of lockdowns:

https://www.todayville.com/looking-behind-the-smoke-and-mirrors/

Will constitutional laywer Rocco Galati win???

#122 dr talc on 11.15.20 at 9:41 pm

Costco’s policy is essentially the same except they are eliminating medical exemptions. Where I live, Etobicoke, they have over 99% mask compliance. This change in policy is non compliant with the local bylaws and the Ontario Human Rights code.

#123 Ace Goodheart on 11.15.20 at 9:43 pm

Re: #97 Chief Pilot Antifa Air great deals on soup see our website on 11.15.20 at 7:24 pm

One person under the age of 20 has died of COVID in Canada to date.

Is that worth injecting your child with an experimental vaccine?

Ask your doctor, the answer will be: Well, COVID doesn’t really affect children. But they need to be vaccinated, because they can be carriers, and they can come in contact with older people, such as grandparents.

It is not for the kids….

#124 Pete from St. Cesaire on 11.15.20 at 9:43 pm

#78 FriedEggs on 11.15.20 at 6:11 pm
Without the mask – their would be no visual representation that ‘something was wrong’ in the world.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
That’s exactly right. That’s why you’re now hearing stories saying “No, you can’t wear your scarf instead of a mask this winter”, after telling people for months that a scarf, bandanna, etc etc is adequate as a makeshift face-covering. Many people wear their scarf over their mouth full-time in the winter when out in public and you wouldn’t want them to suddenly forget about the ‘danger’. They need to make sure that the people continue believing in the ‘pandemic’ until the desired goals of the NWO are met.

#125 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.20 at 9:44 pm

#113 Neo on 11.15.20 at 8:56 pm
At #93 Ace Goodheart

To your point. In Ontario last time I checked I believe the number was 12 people under 40 has died of Covid. Or had Covid at the time of death to put it more accurately. Even if you extend it to people under 50 it’s 40 deaths.

Under 50 the recovery rate is 99.95% yet people are being told it’s necessary to take this vaccine to save your life and others?

The sad thing is vaccines in general are only 10-30% effective with seniors and 50 to 60% for the general population. That 90% Pfizer is throwing out there is a bold face lie. Particularly ones with health issues to begin with who are prone to complications. So even the segment of the population that needs it the most are being given false hope here.
———-
I don’t really care what you think about the efficacy of the vaccine.
I will get my shot, once Fauci gives the go ahead.
Apparently, people like you think FOX is too liberal now.
Where are you getting your info from now?

#126 Nonplused on 11.15.20 at 9:58 pm

#109 Faron on 11.15.20 at 8:42 pm
#82 Nonplused on 11.15.20 at 6:30 pm

Plus there is a lot of “line loss” when you try and transport electricity that far.

Uh, BCHydro makes good money selling power to California.

———————————

BCHydro gets its power to California through offsets. The power actually gets consumed much closer to home, Seattle and such. Electrons don’t go where they are told any more so than gas molecules.

Could we offset electrons from Alberta all the way to California? Maybe. But why would they be interested when they can make their own electrons more cost effectively?

#127 Apocalypse2020 on 11.15.20 at 9:58 pm

#115 Terry

As an aside…………..Trump has a HUGE surprise coming very shortly for the Demoncrats.

Stay tuned………….and after the fact…………I told ya so also!

_______________________________________

Correct.

And more than one surprise is coming.

All will be HUGE.

PREPARE

#128 Maskless on 11.15.20 at 10:00 pm

Now our political “leaders” have to make the most difficult choice:

Play along with the US-driven charade that the Bat flu is a real pandemic, yet somehow fails to kill 99.7% of the people that it infects, OR risk a consumer debt crisis which will demolish trillions of dollars of residential household debt and most Canadians’ livelihoods.

#129 Sail Away on 11.15.20 at 10:09 pm

#105 Faron on 11.15.20 at 8:13 pm

I don’t shop at Costco, but I hear they have good deals,. Maybe not a couple hundred a month, but certainly there are some savings if people are willing to contend with epic lines?

————

Faron, there are three fantastic reasons you should shop at Costco:

1. I hold shares of COST, and each purchase of yours puts $ in my poxcket. Purchased Dec 2018 for 204- update your dbag portfolio!

2. The quality and value of goods is excellent. I just spent $2,500 there yesterday buying chocolates, cookies and crackers for company xmas baskets. Great belgian chocolates, Stroopwaffles and rainforest crackers!

3. Berkshire has a $1.3B stake and has owned it for 20 years. When uncle Warren is that invested, smart investors pay attention!

#130 Room 101 on 11.15.20 at 10:14 pm

How easily the rights of CITIZENS are trampled. Fools , y’all thing you’ve got rights? Nope its a big lie :

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-couple-denied-entry-to-visit-family-1.5797023

#131 Sail Away on 11.15.20 at 10:19 pm

#118 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.20 at 9:32 pm
#106 Sail Away on 11.15.20 at 8:15 pm
#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.20 at 7:09 pm

NASA did not allow him close.
They have a strict Covid protocol.
Can you imagine the Americans sending the first Covid virus into space.
The cosmonauts in the Space Station would go bonkers.

————-

I applied for NASA’s 2017 astronaut candidate call, but for some reason didn’t make the cut. Here’s my rejection email, dated 2017-06-15:

“Dear Sail Away,

Thank you for applying for the Astronaut Candidate Program.

NASA received a record-breaking number of applications (over 18,000) for this round of astronaut candidate selections. This extremely large number of applicants made the selection process a very difficult one. Last week, NASA selected 12 individuals from among the thousands of aspiring astronauts with the potential to make a contribution to the nation’s space program.

The news release introducing the 2017 class of Astronaut Candidates can be viewed at http://www.nasa.gov/2017astronauts. NASA has been selecting a new class of astronauts approximately every four years. Information about future selection efforts will be posted to our Web site, http://www.nasa.gov/astronauts, as it becomes available.

We appreciate the opportunity to consider you for the Astronaut Candidate Program, as well as your interest in the work that we do here at NASA. We hope you continue to be a space enthusiast and perhaps even help us spread your enthusiasm to others. Below are some resources on ways to follow along with or even get involved in NASA’s continuing exploration efforts.

Sincerely,

Anne E. Roemer
Manager, Astronaut Selection Office”

…and now, at 48, I might be getting too old. Oh, what could’ve been. Would’ve had to take a huge pay cut, though.

#132 Steerage on 11.15.20 at 10:20 pm

#93 Ace Goodheart on 11.15.20 at 7:15 pm

Re: #65 pk on 11.15.20 at 5:18 pm

Ace Goodheart I completely agree. This is insanity. We are sending school ages kids to isolation rooms if the have any symptoms. Come that’s a bit ridiculous. They are kids. Kids are sick all the time. Anyone you have ever taught knows that kids are walking, talking snot producing machines.

//////////////////////////////////////////

It’s absolutely nuts.

I am told “we need to vaccinate your kid”. I ask “why?”

The answer: to protect old people.

What?

An invasive medical procedure, putting something into my kid’s arm, to protect someone else?

My society has gone nuts.

Medicine is to help the individual. A doctor’s highest calling is to her/his patient. They are to only act so as to help the patient. They cannot harm the patient.

Now they are supposed to use an experimental vaccine on our children, to protect old people, from kids?

I am completely disgusted with my society. We are a bunch of cowards. 100 years ago, we would have laid our lives down to save our children.

Now we put our children at risk to save our wrinkly old butts?

Disgusting
…..

Thanks for shortening the line me and my family. Much appreciated.

#133 cuke and tomato picker on 11.15.20 at 10:32 pm

I just watched 60 Minutes and they had Barak Obama on 60 Minutes and he said what we have in the White House now is “truth decay” – he is still THE MASTER.

#134 Jasmine Wang on 11.15.20 at 10:34 pm

Mansour is right. Misery has set into Canada . The joyless media has a lot to do with it. Peoples expectations of Trudeau are so low that hopelessness is setting in like a gangrene.

We need a Churchill, not more social experiments imported from the Cold Case files of EU dogma. What do we get out of Ottawa? Chasing farmers instead on ethnic hand gun war? More drug addiction deaths met with impotence. No National Covid Plan? Huge debt and deficits that even fervent Liberals are admitting is a huge problem.

And debt never makes anyone happy, yet Trudeau piles on more of it, as if he wants more misery. There’s no positivity in Canada. It’s a morose unemployed lump from coast to coast to coast. Children’s lives have been altered irrevocably because Dad and Mom can’t afford hockey gear or tutus anymore due to Trudeau killing the middle class jobs of a million energy and mining workers. And now, Christmas is cancelled. You’d think the government would try to rally. You’d think that standing up and facing the fight to lift Canadians spirits would be Trudeaus plan.

But no, he’s no Churchill or the guy in Singapore, fighting back in the face of adversity. What does Trudeau announce instead, that he’ll join another EU push to reset your life into something George Orwell warned us against the last time totalitarianism raised its ugly head.

Piling misery upon misery is no strategy. Poor Justin, he blew his political capital in an early hair tossing splat and now Canadians weep when they see him appear opposed to feeling emboldened and strong. Weak leadership is killing the country. Bring the guy from Singapore over. We need help, right now.

#135 Ronaldo on 11.15.20 at 10:34 pm

#24 D.D. Corkum

– The disease might be spreading amongst (on average) slightly younger populations than before
——————————————————————-
So the virus can tell how old we are? So it can target certain age groups? Smart virus.

#136 Faron on 11.15.20 at 10:51 pm

#127 Sail Away on 11.15.20 at 10:09 pm

#105 Faron on 11.15.20 at 8:13 pm

I don’t shop there because the time it would take me to get there and back plus the stress of crowd battles isn’t offset by the savings. Same reason I don’t shop at Superstore. Leaves me more minutes to fizzle my neurons here.

But your reasons are all valid and your purchasing of stroopwaffles improves my perceptions of your character.

Favourite trail running memory to-date:

Approaching mile 80 of a hundred miler as the day begins to break in a snow filled vale in the Wasatch of Utah. No one around but me and my pacer and the fresh and falling snow makes everything silent. My pacer and I break out a couple stroopwaffles and toast the moment and sip starbucks iced via then carry on. Just 20 more miles of ankle to shin deep mud and cow shit to go…

#137 Ronaldo on 11.15.20 at 10:53 pm

#61 cuke and tomato picker on 11.15.20 at 4:56 pm
Just relax everything will be fine. Enjoy your family and grand children. Watch a Christmas movie. Take a break.
We had a perfect day for mulching leaves on south Vancouver Island even enjoyed the sun at 9 degrees.
Children on bikes and scooters. Lawn mowers going.
People walking and talking while 6m apart. A cheerful day we will soon be getting ready for Christmas.
—————————————————————
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, everyone will want to move here.

#138 Faron on 11.15.20 at 11:15 pm

#124 Nonplused on 11.15.20 at 9:58 pm

#109 Faron on 11.15.20 at 8:42 pm
#82 Nonplused on 11.15.20 at 6:30 pm

BCHydro gets its power to California through offsets. The power actually gets consumed much closer to home, Seattle and such. Electrons don’t go where they are told any more so than gas molecules.

Could we offset electrons from Alberta all the way to California? Maybe. But why would they be interested when they can make their own electrons more cost effectively?

Electrons don’t move anywhere in AC circuitry aside from Brownian motion. That’s precisely why it’s so efficient and precisely why BC can sell electricity to California by dumping it on the grid. That’s why Alberta could sell power to anywhere in Canada if there was a sufficient grid and a need. The idea that power generated close to source is cheaper than power generated elsewhere isn’t entirely correct because, as noted previously, it’s really cheap to transmit high Voltage AC.

Electricity gets traded on markets (recall ENRON) and if California’s demand is high enough it WILL pay for the power if it can be provided. During peak summer demand, California can’t make enough power at any cost to meet its needs and it must import power or perform rolling brownouts.

I was inspired by this discussion to read about Alberta power distribution and, in fact, your province does already export power to BC, Sask and Montana. They use a market model unique to Canada. Adding more wind or solar into the mix would be a no brainer.

And, yes, electrons can be told where to go within useful tolerances. Your old CRT is a good example. Likewise a gas can be directed by establishing pressure gradients along elongated cylinders called gas pipelines…

#139 Ronaldo on 11.15.20 at 11:31 pm

#72 Dolce Vita

CERB money to Oct. 4 before it got changed to something else:

$81.64B

=$81.64B/$47 per kit

= 1,737,021,277 Rapid Test Kits

=46 kits for every man, woman, child, “other” in Canada (37.59M population).

Why I said Gov’s Canada with all the cash they spent:

EPIC FAIL.

—————-

Again, FWIW.
————————————————————–
For that amount you could build 800 hospitals or you could hire 81,000 nurses for a year at 100000 each.

#140 Ronaldo on 11.15.20 at 11:43 pm

#82 Nonpulsed

The Trouble With Wind Farms

https://www.wind-watch.org/news/2020/01/02/the-trouble-with-wind-farms/

#141 A J on 11.16.20 at 12:00 am

We’re facing down the barrel of a second lockdown, and what did people do after the first? Went on a spending spree for real estate, boats, trailers, etc. instead of hunkering down and building an emergency fund. Remember the lady who bought her kids dirt bikes thanks to the CERB? At this point if these reckless spenders lose their shirt, they’ve been given enough warnings and hand outs. Time for them to learn the hard way.

#142 Freedom First on 11.16.20 at 12:38 am

Garth, your laying of pearls of wisdom freely to the masses with such wit and stamina proves you have abs of steel.
I would like to thank the blog dawgs who contribute richly to this amazing blog.
I do believe we are living through times which will cause the pre-covid times to be referred to as “the good old days”.
And I sincerely feel empathy for all the people going through all of the countless stressors surfacing this year.
More than at any time in my life I am also grateful to be me.

Freedom First

#143 Elon Fanboy on 11.16.20 at 12:49 am

#42 Ace Goodheart “ It is now illegal to leave the UK:”

Same for Australians. Apparently under their laws freedom of movement can be suspended for national health reasons. I.e. a Pandemic

#144 Shirl Clarts on 11.16.20 at 1:31 am

#115 Terry on 11.15.20 at 8:58 pm
As an aside…………..Trump has a HUGE surprise coming very shortly for the Demoncrats.

Stay tuned………….and after the fact…………I told ya so also!
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I know. he’s putting concrete in the toilets on jan 20th.

#145 Diamond Dog on 11.16.20 at 1:33 am

#97 Chief Pilot Antifa Air great deals on soup see our website on 11.15.20 at 7:24 pm

#121 Ace Goodheart on 11.15.20 at 9:43 pm

Hope you both don’t mind if I wade in here. Looking at Covid19 deaths by age charts through Nov 12th in the USA:

https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/covid-19-deaths-by-age/

81 fatalities occurred out of roughly 240,000 at the ages of 14. If the fatality rate of the vaccines themselves were 1 in a million, the population of kids aged 0 to 14 is around 10% or 33 million meaning 33 kids would die but its not the initial safety of a vaccine we need to be worried about (although its still an obvious concern coupled with organ damage), its the long term safety of the vaccine itself and to understand the risks, we need to be familiar with the terms Antibody Dependent Enhancement and Original Antigenic Sin:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement

Both terms were mentioned in this percipient blog 8 months ago with the same theories suggested in the link above. Taken from the link, “ADE can occur during the development of a primary or secondary viral infection, as well as after vaccination with a subsequent virus challenge.[1][6] It has been observed mainly with positive-strand RNA viruses (Covid19 is a +strand RNA virus).”

The link above has been re-written since I’ve last read it (enwiki often updates) and it’s been vastly technically improved with references. S-proteins, Epitopes, Conformations, Glycosylation, some of this stuff is over our heads but really, it comes down to whether or not there is a risk of Original Antigenic Sin and from the new information contained in the above link, it appears as though there is. Original Antigenic Sin is best described in the link below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin#/media/File:Original_Antigenic_Sin.jpg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin

How do I best dumb it down… the immune system that has antibodies from an old strain encounters a new strain and instead of making a mirror match of the antigens from the new strain, keeps making antigens from the old strain. The white blood cells then look for old strain antigens and miss the new one’s, allowing the new virus strain to replicate unchecked. In this way, you’ve got a super bug virus on your hands. Do readers follow that?

An example of original antigenic sin is with early vaccines created for the Dengue virus:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengue_virus

Taken from the link above, “Developing a vaccine against the disease is challenging. With four different serotypes (distinct strains) of the virus that can cause the disease, the vaccine must immunize against all four types to be effective.[3] Vaccination against only one serotype could possibly lead to severe dengue hemorrhagic shock when infected with another serotype due to antibody-dependent enhancement. When infected with dengue virus, the immune system produces cross-reactive antibodies that provide immunity to that particular serotype. However, these antibodies are incapable of neutralizing other serotypes upon reinfection and actually increase viral replication. When macrophages consume the ‘neutralized’ virus, the virus is able to replicate within the macrophage, causing disease. These cross-reactive, ineffective antibodies ease access of virus into macrophages, which induces more severe disease (dengue hemorrhagic fever, dengue shock syndrome). A common problem faced in dengue-endemic regions is when mothers become infected with dengue; after giving birth, offspring carry the immunity from their mother and are susceptible to hemorrhagic fever if infected with any of the other three serotypes.”

In typical loquacity, what I’m trying to say is, the potential long term risk of new vaccines will come from potential new strains and whether or not there is the presence of ADE leading to Original Antigenic Sin. There is no way of knowing whether or not these new vaccines being developed will promote Original Antigenic Sin with any future new strains of Covid19. I’m sure researchers are looking for it with the new Covid19 strain out of Denmark right now to see if it exists.

If the FDA doesn’t catch this risk or feels too pressured to wait, it would lead to a colossal fail of epic proportions, likely the worst in vaccine history but to be fair, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the higher ups at the CDC, FDA, WHO and NGO’s and vaccine researchers know all of these risks. Only corruption and gross human error would turn a blind eye to such risks and I can’t see that happening with so much at stake.

What I can say right now is, time is on our side. Vaccines will be further studied for another 5 months and children really won’t need to be vaccinated until the start of school in early September of next year for the new flu season.

I say with those aged 0 to 14, we wait. We wait until long term vaccine safety is more conclusive. Certainly, there is no hurry to immunize children until at least the beginning of next year’s school season. By this time, we’ll know the initial safety of vaccinating hundreds of millions of adults. Even if it’s safe to vaccinate initially, with fatality rates so low in children, it could be wise to wait some more until we know definitively whether or not there is the presence of Original Antigenic Sin from new vaccines in reaction to future new strains of Covid19 in the global population (unfortunately, I think there will be).

#146 Ael Idich on 11.16.20 at 1:38 am

#129
Do not despair. You are indeed an astronaut. On the great ship Canada, drifting away into oblivion. You are all unwilling participants on this one way mission, with the greatest space cadet of all at the helm.

“And I think it’s gonna be a long long time…”
“Burning on fumes out here alone”

Good luck, we are going to need a lot of it.

#147 april on 11.16.20 at 2:15 am

#87 – so much disinformation for ediots to believe.

#148 Nonplused on 11.16.20 at 2:26 am

#120 dr talc on 11.15.20 at 9:41 pm
Costco’s policy is essentially the same except they are eliminating medical exemptions. Where I live, Etobicoke, they have over 99% mask compliance. This change in policy is non compliant with the local bylaws and the Ontario Human Rights code.

————————

It’s basically a dress code. Costco isn’t going to let you in without a shirt or shoes either. You have a constitutional right to shop somewhere else. They have a liability problem, which they are entitled to address. They have analysist getting paid over $150,000 a year to figure out how much they could lose in lawsuits if there is an outbreak traced back to one of their stores and they didn’t take all precautions. They don’t want your business that bad.

#149 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 11.16.20 at 3:23 am

IF you’ve got a friend who’s a furloughed commercial pilot, paying to burn fuel to keep his type rating up. AND IF you’re planning on not getting the vaccine, or publicly counselling others not to. THEN you should punch your friend in the mouth next time you see him, tell him he’ll never work as a commercial pilot again — because of people like you — and that he should find a new vocation tout suite. It’s the polite thing to do.

#150 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 11.16.20 at 3:55 am

“Trump has a HUGE surprise coming very shortly”

It already happened. His hair went from orange to white. And nobody noticed.

But let’s talk about election fraud. The ideal time for team Trump to release evidence of same is right now. There’s no benefit to waiting, as every day hundreds of thousands more people conclude that Biden won, legit. Courts will be less willing to interfere as the deadline for state certification approaches. National TV is the IDEAL forum to release evidence of election fraud, so if you’re watching a good ol’ gal saying she won’t reveal anything there and then, her hole cards are 2-7 off.

I know some of you have watched a few lawyer shows on the teevee, which stressed the element of surprise, but this isn’t that.

#151 Howard on 11.16.20 at 4:19 am

Rentals.ca rent report for November.

https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report

Toronto (old city) 1-bedroom rents down 17.3% YoY.

Large North York units holding up well.

I think we may be close to the bottom of this rental crash. Tenants seeking a deal should do so this winter.

#152 Gerald Aberwell on 11.16.20 at 4:28 am

#62 Definition of ” deliberately harmed”.

Here’s a quote from a District Nurse regarding fore – knowledge of harm as she told me directly. I’ll give it to you verbatim.

Some context: I was was informed by my son’s elementary school that a district wide vaccination was to take place. I dutifully attending, child in tow, as did many parents.

When it was our turn , I asked the nurse “Are there any side effects with the mercury preserved vaccines? She was grumpy, but people usually respond to me because I’m good looking, physically authoritative and wore a three thousand dollar suit that day.

She said, and I quote, “We’ll see some side effects in one out of every thousand “.

Now, I’m a numbers guy, I know those odds aren’t good. I didn’t come prepared with an internet education. I got it straight from the horses mouth. I took my kid out of line and found a safe alternative.

I know all about mass vaccination benefit globally, got it. But, the government knows there will be “deliberate harm” , and are prepared to handle the consequences. Every health scientist will tell you there’s no absolute safety but the efficacy of vaccines globally is inarguable. When it came to my kid, one in a thousand wasn’t safe enough.

#153 Howard on 11.16.20 at 5:12 am

#62 Ace Goodheart on 11.15.20 at 4:58 pm

For the first time in recorded history, a sector of our society, namely our children, is going to be deliberately harmed, in order to protect another sector of our society, namely the elderly.

This is sick.

————————————

Well come on. We need to emulate the Boomers who were always so respectful and admiring of elder generations in their day… /sarc.

Quite the “last act” of the Boomers, I have to say. Demanding that children be injected with a hastily-developed serum of which the longterm results are unknown.

#154 Sky on 11.16.20 at 5:20 am

@ Dolce Vita #17

“Like a bad hangover”: Test subjects report how they felt after the corona vaccination”

All I want to know is how bad a hangover are we talking about here?”

*********************************

Yes, I’m sure that’s something we’d all like to know. The UK govt is anticipating the Mother of All Hangovers — although they like to call these hangovers ‘adverse drug reactions’ (ADRs).

In October the UK awarded an AI software contract to the London branch of Genpact to monitor and process the expected flood of adverse reactions.

** MHRA in the link refers to “medicines-and-healthcare-products-regulatory-agency.”(There’s a hyperlink to this govt site in the link below).

Snippets :

“The MHRA urgently seeks an Artificial Intelligence (AI) software tool to process the expected high volume of Covid-19 vaccine Adverse Drug Reaction (ADRs) and ensure that no details from the ADRs’ reaction text are missed.”

“For reasons of extreme urgency under Regulation 32(2)(c) related to the release of a Covid-19 vaccine MHRA have accelerated the sourcing and implementation of a vaccine specific AI tool.”

“Strictly necessary — it is not possible to retrofit the MHRA’s legacy systems to handle the volume of ADRs that will be generated by a Covid-19 vaccine. Therefore, if the MHRA does not implement the AI tool, it will be unable to process these ADRs effectively. This will hinder its ability to rapidly identify any potential safety issues with the Covid-19 vaccine and represents a direct threat to patient life and public health.”

https://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED%3ANOTICE%3A506291-2020%3ATEXT%3AEN%3AHTML

#155 Phylis on 11.16.20 at 6:36 am

#124 Nonplused on 11.15.20 at 9:58 pm
#109 Faron on 11.15.20 at 8:42 pm
#82 Nonplused on 11.15.20 at 6:30 pm

Plus there is a lot of “line loss” when you try and transport electricity that far.

Uh, BCHydro makes good money selling power to California.

———————————

BCHydro gets its power to California through offsets. The power actually gets consumed much closer to home, Seattle and such. Electrons don’t go where they are told any more so than gas molecules.

Could we offset electrons from Alberta all the way to California? Maybe. But why would they be interested when they can make their own electrons more cost effectively?

Xoxoxo

Ah, the great illusion. You are paying for the same electrons over and over again.

#156 Gerald Rooney on 11.16.20 at 7:07 am

I humbly suggested Trudeau be more ‘Churchillian’, in that I see today as Canada’s darkest hour, but that idyll was rejected. I’m now convinced Canada could use a true progressive, a Margaret Thatcher. Canada is devoid of leadership, IMHO, we’re desperate.

#157 neo on 11.16.20 at 7:30 am

#123 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.20 at 9:44 pm
#113 Neo on 11.15.20 at 8:56 pm
At #93 Ace Goodheart

To your point. In Ontario last time I checked I believe the number was 12 people under 40 has died of Covid. Or had Covid at the time of death to put it more accurately. Even if you extend it to people under 50 it’s 40 deaths.

Under 50 the recovery rate is 99.95% yet people are being told it’s necessary to take this vaccine to save your life and others?

The sad thing is vaccines in general are only 10-30% effective with seniors and 50 to 60% for the general population. That 90% Pfizer is throwing out there is a bold face lie. Particularly ones with health issues to begin with who are prone to complications. So even the segment of the population that needs it the most are being given false hope here.
———-
I don’t really care what you think about the efficacy of the vaccine.
I will get my shot, once Fauci gives the go ahead.
Apparently, people like you think FOX is too liberal now.
Where are you getting your info from now?

********************************************

Dude. I’ve never watched Fox News in my life. Don’t be an ignorant fool and suggest anyone that disagrees with you is listening to Fox news.

Go ahead and take the vaccine. It’s your choice…just don’t make it mandatory because whether you choose to accept this or not this is a never before used vaccine that has been rushed to market.

The real question is where are YOU getting your information from. Fauci himself said a Covid-19 vaccine is likely to be 50-60% effective and won’t be a sterile vaccine like the chicken pox or measles shot so it will require never ending needles and in Fauci’s words “You must never abandon the public health approach”. So he never wants us to return to normal life.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fauci-vaccine/fauci-warns-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-only-partially-effective-public-health-measures-still-needed-idUSKCN2532YX

Bud, you don’t even know what he actually is saying yet you are out here criticizing others opinions. How about you come up with your own conclusions by educating yourself like I have.

#158 Sky on 11.16.20 at 7:46 am

Vaccine or drug side effects are not *side* effects. Like a side of fries or a side of coleslaw. They are DIRECT effects of said vaccine/drug.

But we love our euphemisms, don’t we? Despite most of them being nothing other than fraud. Verbal con jobs.

When you die you’ve only departed, lost your battle or passed away. In excruciating pain, your doctor will ask you if you’re experiencing discomfort.

A lockdown is now a firebreak (Wales), circuit breaker (UK), rollback (Texas), or a dimmer switch (from one of the docs in Biden’s Covid task force).

Go against the prevailing political narrative and your outright censorship will be labelled as violation of community standards or violation of terms of service.

Debt creation is termed quantitative easing or stimulus.

The deliberate and systematic destruction of our economy and a decent standard of living goes by the name of the Great Reset/Green New Deal and Build it Back Better. Riiight. As if we’ll see any ACTUAL building in this wreckage of a western civilization.

Lies are bad enough. But you can easily spot and fight most lies. Euphemisms, on the other hand, are extremely insidious and much more dangerous. Euphemisms are the trained Judas goats calmly leading you to slaughter.

#159 Habitt on 11.16.20 at 8:30 am

Thank you Garth and all the dogs. I enjoy reading you all daily. Keep it up please. A good dose of reality works wonders.

#160 TurnerNation on 11.16.20 at 8:38 am

It’s been said that the world was taken over using only two terms: Asymptomatic, and Mandatory.
The Global CV protocols are Mandatory…because you might be Asymptomatic. Got it?
We’re one year into to this rollout and every local government is telling you the same thing: No more Old System, do not celebrate any tradition, holiday or religious event. They are specific with this
Stayhome and follow your CV protocols. You no longer have an immune system; no only the rules which change daily will give you health.

#161 Penny Henny on 11.16.20 at 8:46 am

This Christmas give Granny the gift of life. Don’t visit her!

#162 Diamond Dog on 11.16.20 at 8:47 am

Found myself intellectually stimulated in a number of directions from searches yesterday with Antibody Dependent Enhancement and vaccinating children. Lets get children vaccines out of the way.

Pfizer’s phase III trial didn’t use children. It’s unlikely that any vaccine trials in phase III have and as a consequence, there will be no vaccines for children in the spring. Vaccines will be rolled out to higher risk groups of adults, news releases have made this information known and it should be noted that efficacy is expected to drop as one gets older. We shouldn’t have our hopes up for 90% efficacy among the elderly.

Pfizer does have a phase I trial started for children however, and the explanation, although technical, is worth an explanation as to why but just to finish, logic suggests that since fatality rates are so low with children, there is no need to vaccinate children, only higher risk adults initially and then lower risk adults to curb the spread. Even with low risk adults though, just read on, its worth the read.

I didn’t expect the wealth of information on ADE to be made public so soon with Enwiki, but there is a need for the general public to know it. I encourage readers to read the link below as ADE could become a hot topic down the road should a new strain with a different Serotype emerge, at least with those who have enough background to understand it and it’s information is concerning since Beta Corona Virus’s like Covid19 have shown to promote ADE with the wealth of information in the link provided below (not good news):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement

Simplified, (if that’s possible) any vaccine that promotes ADE leads to Original Antigenic Sin which works like this. Say a new mutant strain such as the one out of Denmark potentially for example comes along with a different Serotype (Serotype is surface proteins that white blood cells use to identify antigens/pathogens) than it’s older strain and as a consequence reinfects the host. The immune system response mistakenly produces antibodies for the old strain instead of the new strain and as a result, you get no action against the new strain. The virus then replicates for a period without interruption making you far sicker and deader with much higher viral loads than the virus otherwise would have made you.

In some contexts, a benign strain like what we see in the younger gen pop now suddenly becomes a virus on steroids to anyone who possesses antibodies of the old strain. This is the greatest long term threat vaccines can potentially pose to human health with Covid19 in a nutshell, it’s the risk of their antibodies promoting ADE. (Also for this reason, why I don’t trust Russia’s Sputnik vaccine)

Once again, a new strain with a different Serotype needs to emerge for ADE to be a problem (outside of ADE promoted in the disease itself, entirely different conversation), but assuming a new strain with a different Serotype did occur, ADE can occur not just from antibodies from vaccines, but from antibodies within the immune system from past infections. In other words, the greater danger to the general public outside of high risk groups may not be from the initial infection but from reinfection, at least, until another vaccine is developed.

I don’t want to sound alarmist here, but if a new mutated strain with a different Serotype from the current strain that’s circulating right now emerged, the consequences could be much more dire to the global population than the pandemic we are witnessing right now. Perhaps this is why China and other Asian nations went through such lengths to root it out of their populations, because they better understood the long term risks.

Like I said earlier, CDA, WHO, FDA, vaccine researchers, they know all of this too, I’m not re-inventing the wheel. With the stakes at play here, I’m quite confident they’ll get it right. Plus, a mutated strain with a different Serotype in existence remains to be seen (although it could happen, OC43 is an example of a Beta Corona Virus precedent, same genus, 29 strains).

The question is though, what if it did happen? A new mutant strain with a different Serotype? That’s why Pfizer is working on a vaccine for kids, so that they have some kind of proven platform in case it did happen. If a new strain with a separate Serotype emerged, it resets everything. If a mutated strain with a separate Serotype can’t be regionally contained and goes global, vaccine manufacturers would be the world’s hope… until ‘Rona 3.0 and 4.0 and so on.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serotype

Just a side note, China announced early on 2 strains of ‘Rona circulating through the world because of different genetic markers but both strains share the same Serotype. In this sense, there is really only 1 strain out there meaning there is no chance for re-infection once you’ve had Covid19 once or have been inoculated (for how long, still to be determined) and that’s the good news. The bad news is that there is a precedent that as at least one genus of Beta Corona virus come’s up against herd immunity, its mutated into strains with new Serotypes to keep the pandemic alive. We may have to get used to the idea of this bug being around for a while. Best thing to do is just don’t catch it and if you do and a new strain arrives with higher stakes, get used to the idea of a vaccine, it might just save your life.

#163 Gonkman on 11.16.20 at 8:58 am

#115 Terry on 11.15.20 at 8:58 pm
As an aside…………..Trump has a HUGE surprise coming very shortly for the Demoncrats.

Stay tuned………….and after the fact…………I told ya so also!

*****************************************

I said it a few days ago.. MSM isn’t covering it but they will be soon enough I believe.

ABC/NBC/CBS/CNN will be wall to wall back pedaling soon enough.

I hope they did get the Server(s) in Germany.

Release the Kraken!

Drain the Swamp, make the MSM look like the fools they are and Big Tech kiss Section 230 goodbye.

I hope they Burn it all down.

#164 Apocalypse2020 on 11.16.20 at 9:01 am

Oh no.

Oh yes.

Civil war is on the way. Plus global conflicts. Plus a rampaging new wave of Covid.

“America’s largest militia says it will refuse to recognise Biden as president and ‘resist’ his administration”

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/america-largest-militia-says-refuse-192813396.html

And this is just one militia group, comprised of current and former police and military staff. There are many others quietly loading their weapons right now.

PREPARE

#165 David Hawke on 11.16.20 at 9:05 am

#49 Ace Goodheart

Spot-on!

There’s so much false information being spewed by BigPharmas bought and paid for quactors, the media, etc that the truth about this NATO/WHO generated “fake pandemic” will never come out!

#166 Sky on 11.16.20 at 9:09 am

Moderna vaccine this AM – 94.5% efficacy

The Vaccine Wars — East vs West:

Just in the last couple weeks, results reported in the following order:

Pfizer (West) — 90% efficacy

Russia (East) — 92% efficacy

Moderna (West) — 94.5% efficacy

East – Your turn. China, can we hear from you please? 96% ? ?

After nearly 20 years there is STILL no vaccine for SARS-CoV-1. But only a few months in, the results for a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine are simply amazing. Spectacular.

#167 David Hawke on 11.16.20 at 9:12 am

#161 TurnerNation

Nailed it once again, the world is governed by FOOLS!

#168 Squire on 11.16.20 at 9:23 am

Something to think about….

Dr. Fauci
THEN:
https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-doesnt-regret-advising-against-masks-early-in-pandemic-2020-7

Dr. Tam
NOW:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/23/health/fauci-covid-mask-mandate-bn/index.html

THEN:
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1717905987907

NOW:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/three-layer-mask-tam-1.5787946

It’s ridiculous the advice given to us. Many Asian countries were wearing mask immediately after covid-19 started. Some even prior to that for various reasons. Top medical officials back in March in South Korea were 100% certain it made a difference.
I’m actually appalled at the Doctors here and their advice. But Dr. Fauci is a hero and Trump is a villain. Just saying…. what is the real agenda here ??? ask yourself that.

#169 Dharma Bum on 11.16.20 at 9:38 am

#28 Captain Uppa

Why was I there? To quickly return something, thinking that it would be quick in/quick out.
——————————————————————–

No time for the ol’ in/out luv…just came to read the meter!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89GSUhzT3Ow

#170 TurnerNation on 11.16.20 at 9:46 am

This is why they sold us so hard on Ghost Kitchens last year. There is no longer news only Predictive Programming.
Welcome to our open air UN Tax slave camp.
The communists took away your means of production.

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that the COVID-19’s second wave is shattering the restaurant business. A triple-bylined item led by Josh O’Kane says that Main Street or Bay Street, major chain or mom-and-pop: Restaurants and bars fed and entertained people. However, gathering is now dangerous, and this fall’s combination of restrictions, lockdowns and jurisdictionally staggered government relief programs has left the hospitality sector at the edge of destruction. Many restaurateurs are on the cusp of giving up. Some already have. Thousands of entrepreneurs and more than a million Canadians who work in the hospitality sector — many of them young or from vulnerable segments of the population — have watched their livelihoods disappear. The sector’s collapse is worsened by the state of federal assistance programs, restaurateurs say, as a delayed rent relief program and reduced wage subsidies threaten establishments and workers alike. “Without the government realizing how dire it is, and with lockdowns continuing to persist, you could see up to 90 per cent of the industry not come back if this drags into next year,” says Andrew Oliver, an organizer of the Save Hospitality lobby group.
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

#171 Squire on 11.16.20 at 9:48 am

#60 willworkforpickles on 11.15.20 at 4:45 pm

——————————————————-
If you want to bet against America, go ahead. I won’t.

#172 Squire on 11.16.20 at 9:59 am

DELETED

#173 Howard on 11.16.20 at 10:02 am

I have a niece and nephew under 5. I’m concerned for them. How do I convince my siblings not to have them injected with that poison without coming across as an anti-vaxxer zealot? There’s virtually no discussion in the media on the potential consequences of rushing this to market.

This is not an anti-vax blog. Stop it. – Garth

#174 Dharma Bum on 11.16.20 at 10:04 am

Lockdowns don’t work. If they did, then we’d be fine by now. Lockdowns are the lazy wait out for self serving politicians to make it look like they are doing something, They’re only protecting their own arses in case something really bad happens. Then they can say, well we tried. We did our best to save you all. It’s not our fault. Remember that at election time. The truth is that they haven’t a clue what they’re doing. Just fumbling around in the dark. They also worry about political correctness, so they’re very careful about singling out areas and groups where the spread of the virus is especially rampant. They can’t call them out, so broad, ineffective brushstrokes are applied.
Besides, why is everyone still so freaked out about the virus? Is it the evil mind warping influence of the filthy cesspool that is social media that has distorted everyone’s perception of reality? I think maybe it is. That, plus the incessant parroting of the false narrative by the gutless mainstream media. Have we all turned into gullible zombies? I think yes. Most of us, anyway. Independent, rational thinking is so rare these days. Reality indicates one thing, but Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, CBC, CTV, 680 News, CNN, FOX, CNBC, ABC, NBC, CBS say something else. If it’s on the air or the internet, it must be true, even though my personal experience is something totally different. Defer to the narrative, or be run over. That’s the message. Social media is the true culprit, I think. It has wormed its way into the brains of the particularly naive, gullible, ignorant, paranoid, stupid, insecure, narcissistic, self consumed, easily distracted, non-critical thinkers of our sorry society. These people seem to believe the swill of disinformation that they are unknowingly force fed daily, hourly, by the minute, and by the second. As long as they get “likes”, life is good. Stay locked down. WFH. Be afraid. Don’t argue. Oh look! I was just tagged in a photo. Yay!

#175 Sail Away on 11.16.20 at 10:05 am

#105 Faron on 11.15.20 at 8:13 pm

…your purchasing of stroopwaffles improves my perceptions of your character.

—————

“When you understand someone… truly understand someone… you can’t help but love them. Therefore… anyone in your life… ANYONE… who you feel less than love for… you have misunderstood.”

Mike Dooley

#176 the Jaguar on 11.16.20 at 10:17 am

‘….#132 Sail Away on 11.15.20 at 10:19 pm…….

‘…and now, at 48, I might be getting too old. Oh, what could’ve been. Would’ve had to take a huge pay cut, though.’

I coulda’ been a contender. I could’ve been somebody”, laments Terry to his brother, “Instead of a bum, which is what I am – let’s face it.”‘

#177 the Jaguar on 11.16.20 at 10:24 am

@#106 Steve French on 11.15.20 at 8:01 pm

Ah, no. My thinking is more in line with Jamil Jivani’s when it comes to the subject of hip hop.
Got a little James Brown on right now. ‘How do you Stop, before it’s too late’, live performance.

#178 Sail Away on 11.16.20 at 10:44 am

#165 the Jaguar on 11.16.20 at 10:17 am
‘….#132 Sail Away on 11.15.20 at 10:19 pm…….

‘…and now, at 48, I might be getting too old. Oh, what could’ve been. Would’ve had to take a huge pay cut, though.’

————-

I coulda’ been a contender. I could’ve been somebody”, laments Terry to his brother, “Instead of a bum, which is what I am – let’s face it.”‘

————-

Sigh…

Forever unrequited

#179 X on 11.16.20 at 11:00 am

Yes, another full lockdown would decrease the positive tests, but at what cost? Willing to bet 50% of all remaining restaurants close with another lockdown without financial help. Why close the local chiropractor office if there have been no reported covid cases as a result of getting chiro care?

No doubts another lockdown would show who really wants to sell and who is just testing the market. Price reductions would occur to sell. However I do find most asking prices a little ambitious, imo. A dose of reality would benefit the real estate market.

#180 Faron on 11.16.20 at 11:17 am

#176 Sail Away on 11.16.20 at 10:05 am

#105 Faron on 11.15.20 at 8:13 pm

…your purchasing of stroopwaffles improves my perceptions of your character.

—————

“When you understand someone… truly understand someone… you can’t help but love them. Therefore… anyone in your life… ANYONE… who you feel less than love for… you have misunderstood.”

Mike Dooley

Agreed. Yet, if one refuses to be vulnerable out of some kind of fear one prevents others from that true understanding. Thus, true and full love will never be felt until our guards are lowered. Doing so in a world of slings and arrows is a monumental task that few ever achieve, and if they do, rarely with any permanence.

#181 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.16.20 at 11:24 am

Why is everyone so workd up over kids getting vaccinated ?
First they gonna give it to the health care workers, than the elderly and people with health conditions.
Then the rest of the adults.
And then there may no longer be a need to vaccinate the kids.
Go find another conspiracy.

#182 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.16.20 at 11:30 am

#181 Faron on 11.16.20 at 11:17 am
#176 Sail Away on 11.16.20 at 10:05 am

#105 Faron on 11.15.20 at 8:13 pm

…your purchasing of stroopwaffles improves my perceptions of your character.

—————

“When you understand someone… truly understand someone… you can’t help but love them. Therefore… anyone in your life… ANYONE… who you feel less than love for… you have misunderstood.”

Mike Dooley

Agreed. Yet, if one refuses to be vulnerable out of some kind of fear one prevents others from that true understanding. Thus, true and full love will never be felt until our guards are lowered. Doing so in a world of slings and arrows is a monumental task that few ever achieve, and if they do, rarely with any permanen
———————-
I just like to keep it simple:
If you can’t be with the one you love, love the one you’re with.

#183 Love_The_Cottage on 11.16.20 at 11:33 am

Garth, you obviously have a strong belief in free speech, but at what point does this blog turn into a joke taken over by the lunatic fringe? Hint: It’s nearly there.

#184 The West on 11.16.20 at 11:33 am

It’s a good thing the Canadian Establishment has done all they can do to beat the public into depraved submission. Living is bad for us, we get it.

Can you imagine what an informed citizenry with an imagination and understanding of history would do with this mind virus?

My goodness….there’d be carnage in the streets……..

#185 TurnerNation on 11.16.20 at 11:33 am

How long until banks ask for a DNA test or at least a picture of your arm or something. To help assess your future employment prospects. For lending.
To our globalist rulers are are like prized animals, to be ranked and sorted according to our plumage.
The New System. They wasted no time:

“The Financial Post reports in its Saturday, Nov. 14, edition that the Bank of Canada is commencing a diversity push that will see it significantly increase the representation of women and visible minorities in senior management over the next decade. A Bloomberg dispatch to the Post reports that in a notice to staff this month, the Ottawa-based central bank unveiled plans to double the number of senior officers who are visible minorities by 2030, and to raise the number of women in those roles by 45 per cent over the same period. Louise Egan, a spokesman at the bank, confirmed the contents of the notice. Governor Tiff Macklem and the executive council are “committed to the ideal that a more diverse and inclusive Bank of Canada is crucial to reflect the society we serve, and that it strengthens us as an organization. They have made clear that our senior leadership team needs to reflect that diversity,” Ms. Egan said in an e-mail. The move would bring the number of visible minority senior officers to 14 from 7, and number of female senior officers to 32 from 22.
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

#186 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 11.16.20 at 11:40 am

Swedish Experiemnt update:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/sweden-uses-unprecedented-covid-restrictions-as-cases-soar-1.1523062.amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

#187 Ronaldo on 11.16.20 at 11:42 am

#181 Faron

Agreed. Yet, if one refuses to be vulnerable out of some kind of fear one prevents others from that true understanding. Thus, true and full love will never be felt until our guards are lowered. Doing so in a world of slings and arrows is a monumental task that few ever achieve, and if they do, rarely with any permanence.
—————————————————————–
Hamlet could not have said it any better.

#188 Steerage on 11.16.20 at 11:48 am

Right on cue… the anti-vaxxers invade the blog. Thanks for making the line shorter. Much appreciated.

#189 TurnerNation on 11.16.20 at 12:04 pm

Oof. Dragon Brett Wilson fighting back.

https://twitter.com/WBrettWilson/status/1327843743022546944

#190 TurnerNation on 11.16.20 at 12:18 pm

Remember this reset is mainly over our travel rights.
The UN plan.
In -20 how long will batteries last? No more ski trips within QC? How many charging stations?

DAILY changes for the next 10 years as this long-planned global plan is rolled out. Just watch them.
Ps. buy Magna stock they are involved in the electric biz now.

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/goodbye-gas-guzzlers-ban-on-sale-of-gas-vehicles-in-quebec-by-2035-expected-to-be-announced-monday-1.5189566
MONTREAL — Gasoline-powered vehicles could be off Quebec’s roads within 15 years, as the provincial government is anticipated to announce an ambitious new environmental plan this week

#191 East Coast Life Style on 11.16.20 at 12:28 pm

I’m seeing a lot of appeal to authority and not enough appeal to reason.

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2020/11/pfizers-unprecedented-vaccine-experiment.html

Being skeptical will soon be branded as “un-patriotic” and “irresponsible”.

If you were born in 1984, make an effort to understand the novel “1984”, odds are your teachers didn’t understand it either.

Better get used to the taste of cheap gin.

#192 Gonkman on 11.16.20 at 12:49 pm

Ottawa is still losing older folks in the LTC which is tragic but the General Population hasn’t seen any increase in weeks.

359 Total Deaths
313 Deaths in LTC
0-29 Deaths = 0
30-39 Deaths = 1
40-49 Deaths = 1
50-59 Deaths = 9
60-69 Deaths = 31
70+ = 317

What will a lockdown do for Ottawa?

#193 JB CONDO DEATH on 11.16.20 at 1:13 pm

#105 Steve French on 11.15.20 at 7:59 pm

WWSMD

What Would Smoking Man Do…
…………………………………………………………..
Not really sure WWSMD as he had no skin in the game!
He was a renter in Cali. God rest his soul he no longer has the need for a humble abode here on this earth.
My money says that he would however be pushing some conspiracy theory about what has just transpired south of us.

#194 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 11.16.20 at 1:16 pm

“Garth, you obviously have a strong belief in free speech, but at what point does this blog turn into a joke taken over by the lunatic fringe?”

FIVE YEARS AGO, AT LEAST.

#195 willworkforpickles on 11.16.20 at 1:28 pm

#172 Squire
#60 willworkforpickles on 11.15.20 at 4:45 pm

——————————————————-
If you want to bet against America, go ahead. I won’t.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Neither would I bet against America anytime soon.
Qn the other hand it will be a much different story years from now. Clear indicators to project the dollars downfall exist now. Approximate timing as to when cannot be projected accurately, but that time will come.

#196 jal on 11.16.20 at 1:33 pm

Fear of another lockdown seems to be more prevalent than the fear of covid19.

Fear by employers of becoming an employee and not making enough income to continue their lifestyle seem to be greater than joining the homeless.

#197 Claire on 11.16.20 at 2:12 pm

#63 Ace Goodhart

Actually, children may not end up getting vaccinated at all. The NHS (UK) has determined the following order of priority for vaccineswhen they are finally available:

1. People living and working in care homes
2. Then those over 80, then over 75, over 70, over 65 and over 60
3. Then adults, but not children, with a health condition that puts them at greater risk
4. Then people aged over 55, and finally, those over 50

The National Health Services there has NO PLAN to vaccinate kids, or even health care workers early on.

Will be interesting to see how Canada prioritizes distribution but I bet children would be some of the last to receive it (if at all).

#198 Bill on 11.16.20 at 2:18 pm

#191 TurnerNation on 11.16.20 at 12:18 pm
Remember this reset is mainly over our travel rights.
The UN plan.
In -20 how long will batteries last? No more ski trips within QC? How many charging stations?
DAILY changes for the next 10 years as this long-planned global plan is rolled out. Just watch them.
Ps. buy Magna stock they are involved in the electric biz now.
———————————–
Drove to Van and back from sunshine coast in our EV Friday.
I juiced up at superstore Grandview.
Theres a lineup. Thinking what a joke as EVs make up 1%… The powers that be think their going to jam everyone into an EV. I can tell you as a Tech its impossable.
In BC have pennies from heavey called rain so we have an advatage with hydro electric.
But we need 6 more Site C dams to power a massive gride we dont have and would cost so much your eletricity bill would tripple.
High rises with 100s of condos…I guess they can all share a car cause every parking spot aint getting a charger…
I guess if you stay at home for ever that could work.
We have retards in power……EOS
It wont work Trudeau. Idiot.

#199 Dan in Vancouver on 11.16.20 at 2:18 pm

We have to realize that the real threat of overwhelming the healthcare system has serious economic and social consequences. Further lockdowns will inevitably lead to economic uncertainty which translates to a loss of jobs. Banks will have no choice but to tighten lending standards which means a reduced demand for goods and services. The economy is about jobs and consumption, and the western world’s collective inability to implement stringent measures and guidelines to deal decisively with SARS-CoV-2 until mass vaccinations become readily available means that lockdowns of varying degrees will be mandated via political edicts. So to maintain consumer confidence, policy makers have adopted the only measures they know – mass stimulus programs and maintaining interest rates historically low to try to keep deflationary forces from metastasizing. It’s my opinion that a deflationary spiral will be precipitated through these policies since the likelihood of raising interest rates seems unlikely for the foreseeable future. We had better hope that efficacious mass vaccination becomes available sooner rather than later. But like any thesis, my opinion could be wrong and I sincerely hope it is.

#200 David Pylyp on 11.16.20 at 2:24 pm

The only remaining axiom now is;

Where there is a Will …
There is a relative…

David Pylyp
Toronto

#201 Bill on 11.16.20 at 2:53 pm

DELETED

#202 Calgary Rip Off on 11.16.20 at 3:35 pm

#165 Apocolypse:

“Prepare” I love it. How?

Is the real world a movie? I think so. On so many levels there are assumptions guiding decision making. Small decisions, big decisions, everything is affected.

First, John F. Kennedy think Faucis Wuhan lab that was shut down by Trump instigated a virus release when Trump fired the workers last September. Or was it in fact the wet market? Who knows? Someone made decisions and now everything is FUBAR.

Second, the mRCA vaccines were first. No risk of reverse transcription, supposedly due to Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Do the vaccines induce the right kind of antibodies for real virus? No data. Does the mRNA degrade appropriately? Does the mRNA trigger vast interferon response and cytokine storm? No data. Next, the adenovirus vaccine doesn’t work in individuals exposed to certain biological viruses. And lastly the last are more standard type vaccines. No long term data for any of them. What decisions will be made? Who knows?

So how does one “prepare”? Maybe for some prayer. For others drinking. Others sex. Still others get stoned. Or maybe none of the above.

Does one prepare by panic?

I think I will be happy with what I have now. That’s my preparation dude.

#203 Michael in-north-york on 11.16.20 at 4:32 pm

#167 Sky on 11.16.20 at 9:09 am

After nearly 20 years there is STILL no vaccine for SARS-CoV-1. But only a few months in, the results for a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine are simply amazing. Spectacular.

Yeah, but the latter got a lot more funding and a lot more research. More funding doesn’t make us smarter, but the sheer scale of efforts often makes the difference.

#204 The Wet One on 11.16.20 at 4:49 pm

What kind of coffee do you chop Garth?
I’m curious.
;-)

#205 Vitali on 11.16.20 at 4:49 pm

All it means great spring market and higher prices. We are in a hyperinflation and record low interest time , price of hard assets goes up . Feel sorry if you did not buy any real estate . in 2008 market froze for a year and went creasy after ….

#206 Ronaldo on 11.16.20 at 4:59 pm

#197 Claire

How effective are vacines in the elderly. Maybe not so good. I for one will not be running to get the shot and I am over 74.

https://theconversation.com/why-vaccines-are-less-effective-in-the-elderly-and-what-it-means-for-covid-19-141971

#207 Doug in overpriced London, PI 16 on 11.17.20 at 10:11 am

Yes, the subject of real estate again. Myself, I’m glad that last month I scooped up more XRE, as well as some REI.UN while it was still on sale.