The place was packed.
“It’s been nuts,” Andrea said. “But we can hardly complain.” Our server went off to get drinks and the catch-of-the-day special as we sat at our table in the ‘patio’ in downtown Toronto. Actually this was an outdoor room, built on the sidewalk with thick plastic walls, an awning roof and heated with a row of dramatic propane furnaces, throwing flames a meter high topped by ceiling fans to keep the interior toasty. Not too hard, given the mild temps. But the 150 or so people being served seemed happy. Lots of wine. No masks. Except the staff.
This is what downtown, high-traffic eateries must do to survive the second wave. Big bucks for infrastructure. Big hopes the bread-&-butter interior dining rooms will open soon. But that was dashed this week. Toronto has locked down for another month. No inside eating. No gyms. No gatherings. Meanwhile the infections and deaths keep climbing – as they do in out-of-control America.
So, yeah, the dichotomy continues. Pain on Main Street. Gains on Bay Street. Odds are the real economy will see a tough winter, with rising jobless numbers. More reasons to doubt the FOMO that has propelled house prices and family debt to record levels.
On Monday an outfit which owns a bunch of high-end restaurants in Toronto, King Street Company, filed for creditor protection. More to come. The national business group CFIB says half of all the enterprises in Canada are seeing lower sales as the second wave washes over us. The forecast now is that one in seven of remaining small businesses – 225,000 of them – will not survive. As we know, this sector is responsible for sustaining more jobs than any other.
Downtown streets and sidewalks are sparse. Most pedestrians wear masks. The underground PATH is deserted. Many commercial landlords have decided the pandemic is an opportune time to renovate, reclad, repave, refinish or restore. So while the core is depopulated, it’s a cacophony of construction noise. Down the street from our patio the new Google building’s going up on King Street. To the south the striking new CIBC headquarters snakes skyward. The little guys are perishing, but the big guys are getting ready for Spring of 2021. A vaccine. Therapies. No more waves. Hope.
It’s a confused time, of course. Biden-Trump worries a lot of people. As we know, 45 is capable of anything in the next seventy-odd days. The Pfizer vax is huge news, but it will take months and months to get into people’s arms. When word came of a ‘cure’ the WFH stocks (Zoom, Amazon, Netflix, Peleton) were hammered. The Nasdaq fell as the Dow (value stocks) exploded. But that lasted just a day or two.
Bond yields, as mentioned yesterday, shot higher as prices fell and money roared back into equities. Bond returns are at the highest since pre-Covid. So markets are clearly looking beyond the winter, past the worsening wave and right over the US presidential turmoil to the promise of next year. And thereafter.
Here’s the view from veteran trader Ed Pennock:
Surely the market knew there would be a vaccine. However,90% efficacy, when flu vaccines typically are 40% to 60%, is outstanding. Investors were hiding in the “Work from Home” stocks. They’ve changed their mind somewhat. We think that going forward will see a Hybrid model occur. A company we know in Calgary is already there. If employees want they can work from home on Mondays and Fridays. Or any other 2 days. But most want Mondays and Fridays. Their CEO thinks that gives the company the best of both worlds.
The Vaccine will allow a return to some kind of Normal. Yet we are firmly heading into the “Digital Economy”. After the Pandemic subsides we will explode. Here comes the NEW “Roaring Twenties”.
Had coffee on a Yonge Street sidewalk bench with a colleague this morning. A senior investment company guy, and we yakked about those offices we once inhabited far, far above us in the shiny, empty bank towers. “I enjoy having 15,000 square feet to myself,” he mused. “But this will change.”
You bet. Normal will come back, but altered. Maybe that hybrid – a 60/40 approach to the office. Maybe a hotel model, with workers booking in for defined periods of time. Maybe in 2022 or 2023, we’ll party like it was 2019. The roaring Twenties. Coming. Be patient.
Meanwhile, get invested. And go spend some money in your hood. Big tip, too.
185 comments ↓
Question: Can the economy explode upwards IF debt levels are so high in Canada?
See any contridiction here, when Mr. T talks daily about worrying debt levels?
Please explain. Thank you.
Tell us more about Bond Prices…..we all just want to hear about INTEREST RATE HIKES!!!
It’s nice to see you are finally starting to come around on the 60/40 WFW/WFH hybrid model! I guess it is possible to teach an old dog, some new tricks.
Order takeout and leave a big tip. Don’t kid yourself, that ‘outdoor’ scenario sounds like an excellent way to spread the virus around.
Was Gartho @ Cactus club or O&B or Ki or nowhere so pedestrian ;)
Always following the subtext – so cheery as usual:
From Investment Executive paper:
“Toronto-based Equitable Bank has a new reverse mortgage product.
Reverse Mortgage Flex allows retirees to access up to 55% of their home equity as tax-free cash — an increase over the 40% limit offered by Equitable’s other reverse mortgage product.
“The current environment has made higher-density living options like retirement homes understandably less appealing,” Paul von Martels, vice-president of reverse mortgage lending at Equitable Bank, said in a statement. “The typical approach of selling one’s home to fund later-in-life needs is becoming an inferior option.”
— okay I do not use this website myself but it was linked.
Predictive programming…remember the goal is control over our movements, breeding and feeding. As a famer controls herd of animals. Love the New System! It’s the slave system. Get working Comrade, all fun places are closed up – for your health – early last call; we have new National debt to pay off, chop chop. The case numbers, Oh!
https://www.rt.com/uk/506395-covid-writsbands-government-advisors/
ehavior experts advising the British government have suggested that offering people with negative Covid-19 results wristbands would help encourage mass testing. But reaction shows not everyone would like to wear such a marker.
The unorthodox suggestion comes from the Behavioural Insights Team (BIT), a group of experts devising crafty plans on how to improve people’s compliance with government policies
A key part of the strategy would be a carrot and stick approach, according to the experts. The ‘stick’ part in Slovakia was a strict curfew introduced last month. The ‘carrot’ part came in the form of certificates issued to Slovaks who tested negative, which meant they were released from harsh restrictions.
In Britain, the public could be offered the chance “to get back some freedoms if they test negative,” the BIT said. And to facilitate monitoring, people free from Covid-19 could be given paper wristbands “for easier recognition on whether they can enter venues.”
Like myself and many have been saying for a while now. WFH isn’t going anywhere. Expect the hybrid situation your friend yakked about to become more and more prevalent.
Going back to exactly as it was with everyone in the offive all week? No chance.
Oh and agreed fully on eating out and tipping. Tip big if you can. The servers deserve it and depend on it.
MF
There will be no viable Covid vaccine in 2020 or 2021 and likely never.
Does anyone else feel the “cure” for Covid – massive lockdowns, job losses, bankruptcies, drug overdoses, depression, suicides, etc outweigh the costs?
I mean, can’t we focus our resources on the vulnerable (older and health compromised) and let the rest of society get on with our lives? Spend gobs of money for the care homes, offer free home delivery to vulnerable, etc…it’s better for everyone.
Adjusted for population sets, 99% of covid deaths occur in people over 65.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/#:~:text=The%20highest%20number%20of%20deaths,aged%20within%20this%20age%20group.
As Dale Carnegie said, “When dealing with people, let us remember we are not dealing with creatures of logic. We are dealing with creatures of emotion…”
“Had coffee on a Yonge Street sidewalk bench”
You left the Atlantic bubble ….. to travel to Toronto? Are you nuts?
History a good teacher.
Here comes the NEW “Roaring Twenties”.
-veteran trader Ed Pennock
Maybe in 2022 or 2023, we’ll party like it was 2019. The roaring Twenties. Coming. Be patient.
-Garth Turner
When the few pupils become the many.
Verisimilitude.
Nice. Thank you Pfizer* and the many more to come.
———————-
In fact 9 more to come and 27 others on their way.
From The Parisian, @the Parisian, today (in French, graphic easy to understand and last time I checked Français still 1 of the 2 official languages of Canada):
https://i.imgur.com/knhq4zP.png
*Minister of Public Services and Procurement Anita Anand said on Tuesday that on top of the 20 million doses of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine Canada has already purchased, it has an option to purchase an additional 56 million enough for 38M vaccinations.
Cutting it a little close there Canada (pop. 37.59M).
This “pandemic” is garbage…spewed from idiotic and diabolic govts, drunk with new found power…
Gartho, u are not smarter than thousands of epidemiologi sts and doctors that are saying that this is a NON event.
You are scared because u are old…sorry. met a 90 year old lady in the park with more spine and common sense…
GET REAL, STOP THIS AGITPROP..good for the Canadian lemmings…lol
If we’re doing history on a 100 year cycle (pandemic followed by roaring 20’s), should we be really worried about the 2030’s?
Patience is hard in the age of instant gratification.
You can’t dine indoors but you can dine inside, outside.
What a world.
KEEP OUT OF OUR STORES WITH YOUR DAMNED POPPIES!
Instead, please just bring your Whole Paycheck and go down Aisle 8.
We have another November 11 Remembrance Day special!
1 litre almond milk or 1 can organic chick peas
Only $32 each!
(*While supplies last)
I think Trump is a very dangerous man. He owes hundreds of millions, perhaps billions when all is really accounted for. He is the President , and has had access to highly classified military intelligence. Do you think he will put country ahead of himself if offered a financial lifeline by an opposing county ? Yah, me neither !
Garth you nailed it, once again.
Thanks
Happy Remembrance Day.
Thanks to all those who sacrificed for us, so that we can live in a nice country.
Garth,…you back in the big Smoke? Where did you sleep?
Garth, nothing exists in my office comparable to being able to take a washroom break coupled with a tummy rub for the dog. Sorry, but HR is simply not going to approve co-workers licking you. Sorry to read about your loss.
second wave of money from the gov. to the consumer to help the businesses survive.
This Pfizer VACCINE has NOT been approved yet.
COVID is about to DEATH Roll America.
Stay defensive, sit in CASH, ASTRONOMICAL returns are around the corner for those who know better.
RE:
“…20 million doses of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine Canada has already purchased…has an option to purchase…enough for 38M vaccinations.”
————-
Today I learned that Italia’s allocation of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine purchased by the European Union is:
27M doses
Oddly, EU MSM all happy and of course Deutschland’s Health Minister trying to get more than their fair share, what’s new?
NOT everyone happy in the European Union, ME.
So I sent this Tweet to PM Conte and Health Minister Speranza this morning in Italiano:
https://i.imgur.com/lIxgCNd.png
Basically it says:
“That’s all? 13.5M get vaccinated? Are you kidding me? We are 60.4M. The EU can’t count.”
Of course I had to pull the “shame card” out of the deck and told them Canada was getting 86M doses for a population of 37.6M.
Yes Math genii I know it’s 76M doses, hyperbole a good thing in this matter and, I was on a roll.
They do listen, esp. Minister Speranza whom I have yelled in the past on Twitter and low and behold, reporting changes with explanations the next day.
Who knew?
——————–
Much to be thankful for Canada, DON’T FORGET to THANK Gov Canada.
As for me, next on my Twitter Tirade list will be the European Commission responsible for not procuring enough for the EU. Going to stew on that one for a couple of days.
Going to wait for the normally not asleep at the wheel EU MSM to come to the realization of “Wait a minute…”
An effective vaccine is needed and maybe key to reopening economies and related vested interests esp ailing industries and a world waiting to move on. Let’s hope fast tracking doesn’t come at the cost to good scientific protocol for not just efficacy but safety prior to inoculating billions and serious negative effects are harder to track. Current studies focus on healthy younger trial participants not those with co-morbidities and prob mult medications (higher chance of interaction w/vaccine.) Any and all original studies and large (fully) independent reviews for new vaccines/treatments need to be publicly avail not thru filter of sponsored media. Objective public info is key esp if makers may be given more immunity. Im sure all will still act responsibly for safety. Balance must be found btw accelerating covid related drugs and min risk.
Science/medical groups on vaccine:
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/10/27/2021189117
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4258
Vaccine info:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03166-8
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037
Study to be completed by Nov 2021
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461
My chart of PRICES in $CAD and $USD for Single Family Detached Houses in Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary with FX and Crude Oil Notations is up:
http://www.chpc.biz/canadian-housing-in-usd.html
In October 2020 a single family dwelling in the hot metros of Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto came in at 24% cheaper if purchased in USD as opposed to CAD.
They were 28% cheaper in February 2016 and at the March 2009 Pit of Gloom, prices were 21% cheaper in USD.
The USD/CAD ratio is again rising and has been in an uptrend since 4Q 2017 … a continuation could pop a few balloons.
No answer yesterday, giving it one more shot:
Anyone out there using the Larry Swedroe 5/25 Rule?
I’m curious about WHEN you implement it. Do you check at the end of each month or set an alert or what?
I’ve been edging 84/16 of my 80/20 and it could hit that 85% trigger if things go well for equities and voo hits ~340
Not scientific in any way, rumor mostly, but I heard Covid can be exorcised from indoor areas if the air transfer rate is 6 times an hour or more. So if you are going to be renovating talk to your HVAC person. Also, invest in HVAC companies, because they will do all right.
Just for the month of November, my net worth has grown $60,000. That’s 11 days. WTF!
B&D is 6.45% YTD.
Just over 7 weeks before 2020 draws to a close. Here is hoping 2021 will be a less ‘interesting’ year:)
One LAST ONE Garth.
Well as I said yesterday, Mother Nature down but not out.
Andrew Coyne today on Twitter about an Asteroid coming our way, as in collision:
https://i.imgur.com/yQpnIdc.png
What got me was the Cdn reaction, blasé to say the least and if anything, ya whatever the way its been going so far in 2020:
https://i.imgur.com/p202OIy.png
There is some very REAL comedic talent in Canada. Too funny.
——————-
So My Liege, I wouldn’t be breaking out the balloons, bubbly and party horns quite so fast.
Asteroid Apophis* may get “in the way” of that.
“Should auld acquaintance be forgot
And days of auld lang syne?”
May take on a whole new meaning.
—————
There you go Apocalypse 2020, grist for your mill.
—————
PS:
*Did I forget to mention that it may happen in the next FIFTY YEARS.
My bad.
What the. Divvy increase. They closed a number of locations this year; someone told me they know of an owner which laid off all staff and is working almost 80 hours a week to run the joint and pay bills.
“PIZZA PIZZA ROYALTY CORP. ANNOUNCES 10% DIVIDEND INCREASE AND THIRD QUARTER 2020 RESULTS
..
Working capital reserve increased $1.3 million during the quarter to $4.6 million at September 30, 2020
Payout ratio was 74%
November dividend increases 10%, or by $0.06 per share annually.
Royalty Pool sales decreased 9.4%, largely attributable to the temporary closure of non-traditional restaurants
Same store sales decreased 9.5%
Adjusted earnings per share decreased 10.4%
Restaurant network decreased by 5 locations; pipeline steadily building for 2021 growth
Paul Goddard, CEO, Pizza Pizza Limited said, “Since the pandemic began, Pizza Pizza Royalty Corp and Pizza Pizza Limited, the private operating company, adapted and innovated even faster than we normally do to boost both companies’ financial strength. Stronger order volumes – particularly in delivery, pick up and digital ordering – have enabled the Company to increase the shareholder dividend 10%, as the Company generated $1.3 million in surplus cash during the third quarter.””
I think the Pfizer announcement is suspect. It is interesting to note that this number comes from just interim results, before testing has been completed and has not been peer reviewed. A lot can change.
https://theconversation.com/90-efficacy-for-pfizers-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-is-striking-but-we-need-to-wait-for-the-full-data-149818
More importantly the announcement came the day the CEO was scheduled to sell 132,508 shares. So to make a premature announcement and get a nice bounce in the share price was convenient. He made $5.6 million.
BNT162B2 vaccine will need a gigantic new network of freezers.
Can we keep it cold enough to get it to enough people?
Sounds like a market hyperventilating to me.
Lest we Forget
“The Pfizer vax is huge news, but it will take months and months to get into people’s arms.” NOPE! They aint injectin me with nuttin!
Fine. All the reasonable people move one space ahead in line. – Garth
I agree, normal will come back. Get invested? Sure, if we are diversified (assuming readers know what that means). If we aren’t diversified though, do we really want to be invested buying stocks with the market at or near all time highs in an environment like this or in the commodity laden TSX before the numbers come out with a global recession?
As I said yesterday, a great deal can happen in between a discovery of a deposit, pool or proof of concept to a mine, O&G field, factory or vaccine. (and after, too) Sure, things will go to normal at some point. In time, whatever normal is. Is it going to happen tomorrow? Next week? Next month? At any time before the summer of next year? That’s a long, long time in the investment world.
What are we selling, hope for tomorrow because bonds showed signs of life? 4 to 6 months from now hope makes sense in stock markets but tomorrow? Yesterday according to Worldometer, the U.S. had 142,000 cases. Today and tomorrow it will be higher.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The UK, France, Italy and Germany have large sectors of their economy in lock down. Most of the smaller European nations are there or on their way, just look at the numbers. If we think the U.S. won’t follow soon, think again, hospitals will be soon overwhelmed and governors will be forced to act, its a matter of time, likely before years end.
Sure, bond markets are forward thinking, but stock markets can’t ignore earnings. Q1 and Q2 will be nothing short of economic disaster for both Europe and North America. I dare, I “double dare” someone to disagree. That being said, here’s some quick advice. Cash is a position. Wait. This market will turn on poor earnings and bankruptcies and all the rest that goes with it. When danger comes, so comes with it, it’s cousin “opportunity”.
Wait. Put your f position away and wait. When we see tears and hear crying, that’s when we invest. It’s difficult to time it, but shortly during or after Q1 earnings season seems right to me. Thoughts anyone? Diversified opinions are welcome, don’t be shy.
Fun fact.
Pfizer’s CEO just dumped 62% of his stock after the Covid vaccine announcement.
#26 conan said:
“Not scientific in any way, rumor mostly, but I heard Covid can be exorcised from indoor areas if the air transfer rate is 6 times an hour or more. So if you are going to be renovating talk to your HVAC person. Also, invest in HVAC companies, because they will do all right.”
Most tightly sealed houses run about 4 total air exchanges per day with an air to air heat exchanger. To be able to do 144 air exchanges per day you would need a huge exhaust fan and a giant air to air heat exchanger. Because the heat exchanger is nowhere near 100% efficient your heating and cooling bill would be astronomical.
I think it is a rumour or inside joke.
One LAST ONE, LAST ONE Garth.
I read a LOT of FRUSTRATION with restrictions etc. today in the Comments and mistrust of even the vaccine.
Understandable (veteran of COVID-19 Italia here, still standing).
The long and the short of it is Gov’s N. America and Europe asleep at the wheel this Summer and Fall. THEY KNEW a 2nd Wave coming.
Did not increase hospital bed and ICU capacity rather they handed BILLIONS, TRILLIONS in money away to their peoples and put them out of work or business.
Look I get Medical people worried what with this new cases chart for Canada, means hospital beds, ICus will fill up as the numbers are way worse than the 1st Wave:
https://i.imgur.com/SCicKJN.png
BUT, deaths very low for the number of new cases and vs. 1st Wave:
https://i.imgur.com/yuEiNB2.png
And, it’s NOT THE YOUNG dying, it’s mostly the elderly. Render them harmless, let the young drive the economy instead of sidelining them.
——————–
Having said that, that SHIP HAS SAILED people, TOO LATE. Irrevocable.
Gov’s BLEW IT. Now N. Americans and Europeans will have to live with their Gov’s incompetence. Don’t spend on healthcare, give the money away instead.
Human Nature.
The worst kind, FEAR.
When in FEAR, Rational thinking flies out the door AND it did.
The Wenzer hit a homer with his Nov.7th column “what’s up with divvy stocks?” . From closing on Friday the 6th to today the 11th : Enb. went from 35 to 39, BNS went from 56 to 61, CM went from 101 to 106, and TD went from 59 to 65. These blue chip div payers were forking out 8, 6, 6, and 5% divs respectively. I know cuz I bought them all early last week as part of the quarterly purchasing I do when my bank divs roll in. Good call Ryan. You should think about being an investment advisor.
#27 Stone on 11.11.20 at 5:30 pm
Just for the month of November, my net worth has grown $60,000. That’s 11 days. WTF!
B&D is 6.45% YTD.
———
I forgot: Rub tummy.
Hows that move to the burbs working for ya ? Less cases today in Toronto than in Peel. oops.
“Of the new cases logged on Wednesday, 468 are in Peel Region, 384 are in Toronto, 180 are in York Region, 63 are in Durham Region, and 62 are in Hamilton.”
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-breaks-another-covid-19-record-with-more-than-1-400-new-cases-1.5183959
S.Bby on 11.11.20 at 4:34 pm
There will be no viable Covid vaccine in 2020 or 2021 and likely never.
**********************************************
Unfortunately I have to agree with S.Bby, They are worried that the mutated virus in Denmark will be resistant to any vaccine. We are in big trouble here I fear.
Be safe.
#36 George S. on 11.11.20 at 5:45 pm
They are just finding out now that catching covid on a plane is almost impossible, unless you pick it up with your hands. The air refresh rate on planes is 20 times an hour.
“Fine. All the reasonable people move one space ahead in line.” – Garth
Garth,
I think one’s acceptance or rejection of the vaccine depends on their circumstances. Although you are buffed and chiselled, you are a little older than some, so your risks are a bit higher, so the risk/reward trade-off makes sense in your case.
I am middle-aged with no real health issues (thank God). The risk of Covid being deadly is quite low if I look at the hard data. I wouldn’t gamble on a rushed, unproven vaccine because the risk/reward equation does not work in my favour. If I were 25 years older, I would probably reach a different conclusion.
I don’t think the vaccine issue has to be another polarizing issue. Reasonable people can disagree, imo.
#31 CJohnC on 11.11.20 at 5:32 pm
Yep. Results on just 94 cases, half of them placebo meaning 43 of 47 exposed showed efficacy. That’s a small sample size like you say, not peer viewed with the CEO cashing in 62% of his holdings on the same day as the announcement. The market could very easily have bought into hype which Pfizer could easily explain away several months from now as “preliminary” and a “small sample size” if efficacy numbers drop (I think they will). The story itself is hyped, possibly even politically motivated.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/azar-says-pfizer-very-much-part-of-operation-warp-speed-after-it-distanced-itself-from-trump-program/ar-BB1aUsfE
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed#:~:text=Operation%20Warp%20Speed%20was%20introduced%20in%20early%20April,one%20of%20the%20vaccines%20is%20safe%20and%20effective.
If they do uncover systemic fraud at the counter level, then what? Who wants to live in a world where the entire game is rigged and we’re a bunch of puppets. After all, isn’t that part of the message here.
For anyone that watched the Tuesday election, it had every single sign of a fraudulent election. And there’s a reason China, Russia and Mexico aren’t congratulating Biden and it’s probably because they know something’s wrong.
There’s nothing I can do about the election, so just saying. I call Arizona. My name is Fox. Turn out the lights and blow a water pipe.
Garth, why did the Pfizer CEO sell a lot of his company’s stock right after reporting on the vaccine?
Fine. All the reasonable people move one space ahead in line. – *Garth
THAT was good.
———–
*Hey, let Natural Selection do its thing.
Stop interfering with Mother Nature and her wanting to prune (more like pluck) the human genome and abscission (gardening term).
“Had coffee on a Yonge Street sidewalk bench with a colleague this morning.”
You are back in Toronto?
#31 CJohnC – it was announced on a 9/11 (day/month), of course it is.
Wait wait, just a sec, the ‘science’ has changed!
“COVID-19 transmission on flights ‘extremely rare,’ Dr. Tam says
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5797065”
….
Look I would not go as far as to say there is is no CV as it’s a known entity. But it went from “shelter the old and vunerable and take precautions in our daily lives”, down to a full out, global (the First world/The West only), take down of rights, businesses. For our health of course.
I don’t believe 90% of what we’re being told on this CV.
It’s a bug. A nasty one to some. Behaves like any other bug and we did not shut down the entire WORLD previously.
…
If people wish to dig a layer deeper…I cannot vouch for this petulant blog but they link to known Govt and NGO and foundations and think tank presentations.
Children are the target. It explores the brain-computer connection planned. Heck even Musk’s Neurolink company proports this, our future.
Will this be the New System?:
https://wrenchinthegears.com/2020/09/22/blockchain-education-a-ticket-to-digital-serfdom/
You people that come here to this blog… whatever it is, you love our way of life, you love our milk and honey, at least you could pay a couple of bucks for a poppy…..
I’m talkin to you, Dharma Bum and Dolce Vita and jal and GrumpyPanda and anyone else who’s not Old Stock Canadian.
No poppy no respect, that’s what I say all you visor-wearing hot dogs!
And this just in. Our movements, breeding and feeding are to be control as animals on a farm.
Yep CV did this! Get ready this will be a multi year rollout, in to a Smart phone based blockchain stored COVI-PASS.
You shall not travel or transact commerce without the Mark.
https://nypost.com/2020/11/11/ticketmaster-to-require-negative-covid-19-test-vaccination/?
Wallet? Check. Water? Check. COVID-19 test?
The pre-concert checklist for music fans is about to get more complicated, as Ticketmaster is planning to check the coronavirus vaccination status of concert-goers prior to shows once a treatment is approved, Billboard reported Wednesday.
The ticketing giant plans to have customers use their cellphones to verify their inoculation or whether they’ve tested negative for the virus within a 24- to 72-hour window, according to the exclusive report.
I have followed you for at least 6 years. I have enjoyed reading your Blog. I am very disappointed today that you have not mentioned Remembrance Day today at all. It is MUCH more important than anything you have mentioned today.
Yet rents are not going down in Toronto.
Is Trudeau bringing in millions of people into the city of Toronto or what?
truefacts on 11.11.20 at 4:37 pm
Does anyone else feel the “cure” for Covid – massive lockdowns, job losses, bankruptcies, drug overdoses, depression, suicides, etc outweigh the costs?
I mean, can’t we focus our resources on the vulnerable (older and health compromised) and let the rest of society get on with our lives? Spend gobs of money for the care homes, offer free home delivery to vulnerable, etc…it’s better for everyone.
Adjusted for population sets, 99% of covid deaths occur in people over 65.
……
I agree with you. And I am one of the vulnerable. Isolate us, and let the economy roar.
#35 Diamond Dog
TRUE what you say esp. about the EU.
And the piss ant sized EU countries are in lockdown save Sweden but they are having problems now too with new cases (Malmö, Uppsala) and economically they did worse than Italia, France and Germany.
Having said all that DO NOT FORGET that Recessions are:
1/2 Economy
1/2 Psychology
A new rational leader of the West elected, vaccines to the rescue…
May well turn the psychology of it all in the correct direction.
We’ll see soon enough, well, as long as Asteroid Apophis doesn’t decide to travel at Warp Speed and nail us before then.
#7 S.Bby on 11.11.20 at 4:34 pm
There will be no viable Covid vaccine in 2020 or 2021 and likely never.
—————————————
I expect that at some point in the next month there will be another press release from Pfizer showing that a new round of testing found results inconsistent with the claim of 90% effectiveness. Pfizer’s stock will plummet and perhaps the CEO will buy back all the shares he just dumped in the past 3 days. It will also signal a new rotation back into the NASDAQ which will lead the bubble to a blowoff top sometime middle of next year.
Wait till this is rolled out in every airport – it says certified by Dept of Homeland security.
Remember when we were told of the ‘shoe b0mber’ on the plan and then overnight the nude body scanners appeared? Timing is everything.
Would a time come when these devices would be uninstalled? No. The A.I. is to run our world.
Humans cannot be trusted as they might show compassion. No in our open air prison kamp the computers will be 24/7 running our lives.
Zero compassion; and Zero effort required by our elite rulers. Just set it and forget it.
https://www.clearme.com/healthpass
Using the CLEAR app, your employees can both
enroll and complete their real-time health surveys and identity verification on their personal devices, minimizing contact.
Employees use real-time health surveys to
screen for possible symptoms – and alert you if they may be at risk.
The CLEAR kiosk takes touchless temperature and verifies identity at the same time –
it’s the perfect add-on to enhance safety and streamline operations.
Instead of using traditional ID documents, CLEAR uses biometrics – your eyes and face – to confirm it’s really you.
— Hey look this website has 2020 in it, like how’d they know this would be the year?
https://id2020.org/
Since 2016, ID2020 has advocated for ethical, privacy-protecting approaches to digital ID.
Moderna about to report their vaccine results in days….they’ve hit the trigger for case numbers… if similar results to Pfizer with similar mRNA approach… .lift off!
a few points ..
1) was thinking the tent is Harbour 60?
2) tons of construction sounds in my Bay street office
3) more is open today in the core vs June
4) coffee was at Dineen?
5) hybrid makes sense, best of both worlds
Hard to know what any ‘new roaring twenties’ might resemble, and while bums in seats at the office three days a week versus five might represent a ‘compromise’ between employers and the entitled pyjamas crowd, it’s doubtful office space can be leased on that basis. How does that configure with ‘getting bang for your buck’ from an employer perspective?
Warning lazy buggers: it’s unarmed combat out in the jungle of life, and there are no free rides or ziplines to success. When your personal preferences and business objectives are on the table we all know who holds Aces.
Reduced office attendance will mean reduced traffic for small shops, restaurants, public transit and the Rubs parked out on street corners looking to score a few loonies for the habit of their choice.
Diminished demand has consequences whether the reference point is oil and gas, store front retail and services or general ‘neighbourhood ambience’. I’m not a fan of this idea. So ‘limp’ and half baked’. Part-time everything. You can call it flexibility, but I witness the laptop crashes, communication issues and other suspect activity daily.
Let the masses huddle in their indebted suburban, cookie cutter, front drive cornflake box houses. Pull down the blinds occasionally to peek outside and satisfy yourselves the Boogeyman or Grim Reaper isn’t parked in the driveway.
I’m so grateful for total freedom, multiple life options and robust health and mental attitude.
Who ever said life should be easy? I wouldn’t want it any other way.
“go spend some money in your hood”
Yes, buy up as many houses as possible. Hard assets are going to the moon.
Bill Ackman Shorts Over $20BN In Credit To Hedge Next Crash.
After making a tidy $2.6 billion in profits on a massive (credit) hedge he placed amid stock market complacency ahead of its March collapse, you might want to pay attention to moves like this.
#45 Diamond Dog on 11.11.20 at 6:05 pm
#31 CJohnC on 11.11.20 at 5:32 pm
Yep. Results on just 94 cases, half of them placebo meaning 43 of 47 exposed showed efficacy.
…
That’s not what it means at all…. 90% means 8-9 were in the placebo arm… then 85-86 were in the vaccine arm….. that’s impressive…. yes more details needed…. but geez dude cheer up.. sometimes the glass is 90% full
Pompeo: ‘There will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration’ Nov. 11, 2020
Getting back to normal is wishful thinking, unfortunately. Covid is the catalyst for the “re-imaging” of earthly society.
The American election cannot/will not have a winner either way. Does anyone truly think there will be a smooth transition of power if B ultimately “wins”, or if election meddling/corruption is found/proven and T wins in the courts? If T wins, bad things will happen, and soon. If B wins, bad things will happen, and soon.
This is not politics as usual in the USA. It feels more like a fight to the death, the deep state on one side and whatever hidden force is sponsoring T. It feels like things are going from bad to worse very quickly. For those of us inclined, it wouldn’t hurt to pray.
#15 R on 11.11.20 at 4:57 pm
“I think Trump is a very dangerous man. He owes hundreds of millions, perhaps billions when all is really accounted for. He is the President , and has had access to highly classified military intelligence. Do you think he will put country ahead of himself if offered a financial lifeline by an opposing county ? Yah, me neither !”
All this has been looked into and yes Trump owes money all over town, 100’s of millions, but not to entities that would be considered hostile to US interests.
I guess it is kind of hard for people that aren’t familiar with corporate financing to understand that almost all businesses have debt outstanding. It is just how things are done to maximize return on capital. It would be considered imprudent by most business people not to leverage. If you want to build a $2 billion dollar skyscraper you don’t pay 100% cash.
It also raises some interesting political questions. If almost every single business person out there uses debt to finance their operations, does this mean based on TDS that no business persons are eligible for public office? That seems to be where the train of thought is going. But it also seems to imply that non-business people are immune to bribery. But I ask, “Who is more likely to be bribed, a rich guy or a poor guy?” Well, the answer is neither and both. The difference is you have to bring a lot more money in that suitcase to bribe a rich guy.
$50,000 a month was all it took for Berisma to put Hunter Biden in their back pocket. For Trump, that wouldn’t cover the monthly upkeep on his private jet.
You left the sanity and health security of Nova Scotia to come back to the big joke? The 41sicks.
Restaurants just lost Christmas. No parties, big groups, company celebrations through Christmas and New Year. Nearly every restaurant relies on Christmas revenue to get them through the slow months Jan-April. Trudeau’s aid will not help. Why borrow money if you are closed? There will be a lot of bankruptcies. The vaccine will be a while so many will be collecting EI plummeting recovery along with it. There will be a richer and poorer society because of it. That’s all,
“The roaring Twenties. Coming. Be patient.”
/////////////////////////////////////////////
Gotta go thru the dirty ’30s first!
But I do want to know what Ed Pennock has been smoking!
tcc
didn’t have a Remembrance service today here. RIP dad and all the others … we won’t forget.
Streaming live from the only platform left – personal website.
Facebook, Twitter takes down a widespread network of pages tied to Stephen Bannon.
Where us Hunter?
Google in Toronto? Wake me up when they build an office in Ottawa. Maybe I won’t have to leave this winter wasteland to get a gooder job
I see where Deutsche bank is suggesting a 5% tax on WFH people. Evidently because they are essentially getting an untaxed savings from office and commuting expenses. I’m sure our governments here are paying attention. Perhaps they could charge renters a 5% income surcharge for not paying property tax, or EV drivers for not paying fuel taxes. The possibilities are endless.
Well to summarize financial corrupt system from wall street helps you out.
Regards
Bob
#20 jal on 11.11.20 at 5:07 pm
“second wave of money from the gov. to the consumer to help the businesses survive.”
Unfortunately that is just a stop gap likely to have unintended consequences.
The real economy = labor + resources + energy. (I am including innovation under “labor”.) Money is just an accounting system. It isn’t real. So if we assume that covid didn’t really affect resources + energy, what we’ve got here is a lot of missing labor that cannot be recovered. We’ll never get it back no matter how much money they print. Therefore some businesses will fail.
Two analogies spring to mind:
We elected to have my son do online learning because we anticipated that the second wave would shut down the schools again mid-November (looks like I was a little early but his school now has a declared outbreak). But the turd didn’t keep up with his assignments and fell well behind. So I read him the riot act and moved his work station where we could see it. He’s been working 8 hour days since and he’s still not caught up.
Missed productivity cannot easily be recovered.
The second analogy: Imagine a Scout troop goes camping, but none of them are willing to set up the tents and chop firewood. They are all waiting for someone from “the government” to do it. How will that camping trip work out?
#53
I agree, I hope it’s not part of the cancel culture.
#24 Brian Ripley on 11.11.20 at 5:22 pm
Calgary is a “hot market”? Not for years.
RE: #58 TurnerNation on 11.11.20 at 6:35 pm
Wait till this is rolled out in every airport – it says certified by Dept of Homeland security.
/////////////////////////////////////////////
Still trying to figure out why you are against this stuff.
Us first worldies are being treated like pampered children as per usual. And we are roundly complaining about it.
Global pandemic? No prob. Your government has pre purchased a vaccine.
Try that in some third world hell hole. Vaccine? Yeah right. Human life has the same value as toilet paper. Use it up, throw it away.
Global travel ID system using biometrics? Finally. I have been asking for this for decades. Passports are just totally ridiculous. No matter what you do to them, they are still faked.
I lived in S.E. Asia for almost four years. I repeatedly visited Bangkok, Thailand. You could purchase a Canadian passport on the street there, with your picture and all the security features. Or a British one if that was your preference.
Try faking an iris scan.
I have had my bank accounts and credit cards hacked so many times. They never get anything (I don’t hold cash, and the hackers can’t easily sell the stuff I do hold, without me knowing about it).
I finally said to my big blue bank (which has the best bio metric security available) why in the world don’t you use it?
They do a voice scan whenever I call them. But when the hackers call, even though they provide the wrong address, and their voice scan doesn’t match, the folks at big blue just let them in anyway. I put them on orders. If the voice does not match, you are to hang up the phone.
What happened? No more hacks. It has been years since the last one (folks from Montreal hacked my credit card by calling big blue and faking my address, big blue noted the voice scan didn’t match, but let them in anyway – they bought $5K worth of perfume and sent it to a Montreal rotten borough).
Now that a person who calls up my bank, has to have their voice matched to mine, by my direct order to the bank’s legal department, the hacks have stopped.
Biometrics are unbeatable. You can’t fake them.
I long for the day when all I need is an iris scan to cross a border. Passports, Nexus cards, enhanced driver’s licenses, all a load of garbage. Flotsam. Excess baggage. Redundant junk technology, already been faked and hacked around the world. Worthless junk.
Give me an iris scan. My ticket to the world.
#47 Gary McBrate on 11.11.20 at 6:06 pm
Garth, why did the Pfizer CEO sell a lot of his company’s stock right after reporting on the vaccine?
———
Buy low, sell high.
Duh!
I know a municipality that employees 1,000s of office staff, last year introduced new work space policies which included – 56″ max. high walls. They spent large $ and retrofitted the work stations so workers can see each other while sitting down and no privacy as someone walked by.
Regardless of beliefs on the issue, this of course is not very ‘Covid friendly’ considering establishments are installing $2,000 slabs of plexiglass between tables.
Why tip when I am jobless? Give me my job back at Air Canada and I will tip, but till then, adios!
@ #8 truefacts on 11.11.20 at 4:37 pm
The problem with the vulnerable is that they still mingle with all of us – parents, grandparents, the disabled and frail of health, etc. There’s just no way to isolate a
portion of the population unless you confine them in a prison-like environment. No matter how posh and modern the amenities are, its still a “prison” of sorts if you are confined to X #’s of square footage and that’s it.
I, for one, wish it were that easy; I’m covid-fatigued !
#1… Buoy
The majority of people are not in debt over their heads.
Lots are, but not the majority.
Big money is bigger than ever soon…
#8 truefacts on 11.11.20 at 4:37 pm
Does anyone else feel the “cure” for Covid – massive lockdowns, job losses, bankruptcies, drug overdoses, depression, suicides, etc outweigh the costs?
I mean, can’t we focus our resources on the vulnerable (older and health compromised) and let the rest of society get on with our lives? Spend gobs of money for the care homes, offer free home delivery to vulnerable, etc…it’s better for everyone.
Adjusted for population sets, 99% of covid deaths occur in people over 65.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/#:~:text=The%20highest%20number%20of%20deaths,aged%20within%20this%20age%20group.
As Dale Carnegie said, “When dealing with people, let us remember we are not dealing with creatures of logic. We are dealing with creatures of emotion…”
_________
I’m sure it’s close – but I don’t think we will know what the correct response should have been for years.
I hear your proposed solution to the issue often. My question for you is what makes your solution more tenable and why has it not been adopted? Do you not believe that the option has been seriously considered and the costs and benefits weighed?
Frankly, I don’t understand enough about epidemiology and pandemics to assess the cost-benefit tradeoff and how close it might be at this time.
I’ll defer to the method that brought me to the dance and that has increased life expectancy dramatically over the last 100 years. Mark me down for supporting public health officials and a scientific-based approach. Let the chips fall where they may.
So I have been doing a little more research into what Benford’s law is and whether it can be used to analyse election data. Turns out there are forensic accountants doing that already, so yes.
So understanding why Benford’s law works is not easy, but my attempt at a simple explanation would be that natural numbers in nature are logarithmic, not base 10. Think Richter scale or whatever that hardness scale or even decibels for sound. Or hurricanes. One more in nature is double. Our decimal system is an artifact of the fact that we have 10 fingers, it is not how nature counts. Nature counts more like standard form where every number is X x 10 ^ Y. Only it would use e not 10.
Oh that didn’t turn out to be simple at all. But anyway the reason Benford’s law is useful is that in a natural distribution numbers are not represented as 1,2,3…9, but log(1), log(2), log(3)….log(9).
They can even use it to detect stock market anomalies!
Anyway that hardly explains it but Wikipedia has a page on this stuff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law
—————————–
Trump’s team has told us that there was a lot of fraud this election and he’s sending in the forensic accountants. He’s probably right, but there is probably some level of fraud every election. The question is can they find enough to move the needle? Benford’s law analysis suggests “hell yes”, and so do some other analyses, but time will tell. It’s going to be “count every vote” vs. “count every legal vote” until Dec. 10th.
If there is widespread fraud, which is not proven at this point, I think the mistakes the fraudsters made was not understanding that there are tools to detect it and assuming the Trump campaign wouldn’t be able to finance a forensic audit and recounts.
Anyway we shall see. December 10th isn’t that far away. And I think the exercise is worth it because if nothing else Trump will confirm the election on his own dime. Better I think to clear up any doubts.
25 Hi soggy. I found this link good for explaining some different scenarios
https://www.moneysense.ca/columns/how-often-should-you-rebalance/
I contribute both regularly and when I have “extra” money. I found the regular contributions really balance themselves so They are not too far out of whack. When I put in a lump sum, I either spread it around to maintain the balance, or purchase a particular investment that is missing or under-represented.
When retired, I like the idea of withdrawing funds when things get out of whack. Just watch the taxes. If you don’t need the absolute 5% ($50k on $1M) I might take out some and rebalance the rest with what’s in the tax sheltered accounts.
#36 Howard on 11.11.20 at 5:42 pm
Fun fact.
Pfizer’s CEO just dumped 62% of his stock after the Covid vaccine announcement.
—
They did state that they will be giving the vaccine away, so that will take a lot of resources and probably drop the stock price.
Regarding tips: yep, I tip 20% on take out now for vendors I want to see survive (local joints, never chains). I also use interac or otherwise try to reduce their transaction costs. Little bits go a long way.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/11/trumps-election-challenge-looks-like-scam-line-his-pockets/
#75 Nonplused
“second wave of money from the gov. to the consumer to help the businesses survive.”
———
“Unfortunately that is just a stop gap likely to have unintended consequences.”
———-
There will be businesses for sale. You know, the old system of survival. Capitalism in action.
example
If you want to put your thumb on the scale and help the airline etc. industry to survive, then give a travel voucher to retired senior who receive less income than XXX.
Giving directly money to Air Canada, etc. will not get me on a plane. ( I got to spend my money on other things due to covid)
@#65 Coho on 11.11.20 at 7:00 pm
Getting back to normal is wishful thinking, unfortunately. Covid is the catalyst for the “re-imaging” of earthly society.
The American election cannot/will not have a winner either way. Does anyone truly think there will be a smooth transition of power if B ultimately “wins”, or if election meddling/corruption is found/proven and T wins in the courts? If T wins, bad things will happen, and soon. If B wins, bad things will happen, and soon.
This is not politics as usual in the USA. It feels more like a fight to the death, the deep state on one side and whatever hidden force is sponsoring T. It feels like things are going from bad to worse very quickly. For those of us inclined, it wouldn’t hurt to pray.
–
meh, theres no conspiracy here.
Just a sore loser.
#36 SeeB on 11.10.20 at 5:36 pm
#68 Nonplused on 11.09.20 at 7:12 pm
Well, your “feeling” that people took little steps to “stop Hitler” is just that. A feeling, with no solid proof of systemic issues. Stop with the “I’m not saying, just saying” routine. It’s the same as saying it’s true. If you don’t believe something 100%, don’t go broadcasting around like it “could” be fact. It’s not “asking questions”, it’s just spreading insinuations.
You’re too much man… What about how many times Trump has taken to the airwaves to widely call the election a “Fraud”, even before ballots were cast.? You know that fascist thing where strong men ask their followers to not trust the outcome of elections? That part doesn’t bother you, but “weird maths” does? What about making false accusations in affidavits?
—
Just carrying this forward because SeeB nailed it here.
REMEMBRANCE DAY!!!
“PIZZA PIZZA ROYALTY CORP. ANNOUNCES 10% DIVIDEND INCREASE AND THIRD QUARTER 2020 RESULTS”
Huh, imagine that. It’s not pizza for damn sure, I’m not even sure it’s food but still that happens.
#27 Stone on 11.11.20 at 5:30 pm
Just for the month of November, my net worth has grown $60,000. That’s 11 days. WTF!
B&D is 6.45% YTD
_____________________________________
Wow! That’s horrible. You must be devestated. My condolences. Don’t despair. We all make mistakes.
Perhaps you’ve got some duds in your portfolio that you need to part with. I remember that happened to me once, but that was during the last recession. Took me forever to get over it though.
Please tell me you don’t have preferred shares in your portfolio.
Experienced investors wait patiently for the moment. Wether its a buying opportunity or picking fruit.
Not much to figure out.
Timing markets is like predicting the weather during a growing season. Just ask a farmer.
Welcome back to Toronto Garth. How beautiful have these past few days been, eh? I’ve been on a few bumpin’ patios myself.
That new CIBC building is hella impressive – it’s getting a twin tower a few floors higher. Those are going to be absolute stunners in the skyline.
Some massive condos also going up (1 Bloor West and 1 Yonge). Exciting time to be in Toronto, and seeing the transition of the skyline over the next 5, 10, 15 years.
A frog goes into a bank and approaches the cashier. He sees her name is Patty Whack.
“Good morning, Miss Whack, I’d like to apply for a loan to take a holiday. I’m looking for £30,000.”
Patty looks at the frog in disbelief and asks his name. The frog says “It’s Kermit Jagger. And yes, my dad is Mick Jagger. The loan should be OK – I know the manager here.”
Patty explains that he will need to secure the loan with some collateral.
Kermit replies, “No problem…I have this…” and produces a tiny porcelain elephant, about an inch tall, bright pink and perfectly formed.
Very confused, Patty explains that she’ll have to consult with the bank manager and disappears into a back office.
She finds the manager and says, “There’s a frog called Kermit Jagger out there who claims to know you and wants to borrow £30,000, and he wants to use this as collateral.”
She holds up the tiny pink elephant. “I mean, what in the world is this?”
The bank manager looks back at her and says, “It’s a knick-knack, Patty Whack. Give the frog a loan. His old man’s a Rolling Stone.”
American dollars … South Central Ontario RE …even with the exchange rate where it sits, the price of high end real estate in prime Ontario locations is far out of line. I came to Toronto with family when i was 15 in 1972. I moved back to the US in 1989 to my old neighborhood and bought 2 rental houses, then another and another. At one time I owned 8 rental houses with multiple units in each. A vast portion of my life dedicated to urban struggle maintaining a roof over the heads of the poor and semi poor along with various other businesses i owned and operated. A rough and tumble 30 years to put it mildly with 2 rentals just south of the M-102 in the D… the others just north of the line (Eight Mile) across both sides east and west Woodward Ave. I’m still kickin to tell about it at any rate. Stories of a landlord that would raise the hairs on the back of the necks of most people anywhere in the world let alone most Americans today. There isn’t anything – messed up that is – under the sun that i haven’t seen and many times over in some cases in those 30 years. The wife almost left at least a half dozen times but i maintained those incomes and kept them coming nonetheless and by the use of bare knuckle force often enough.
A year before I came to Canada was the first time i heard the line…
“what i though was heaven turned out to be hell’
It took returning home 17 years later to live it first hand.
And so, not that kids today want to go into professional land-lording or the like but it isn’t and wasn’t the easiest occupation if your going to make any money at it with entry level rental units.
When i left Toronto in 89 i left with the intention of coming back. I recently sold the last of my rental units but waiting – patiently – for the right deal/price (high end) i think will quite possibly be the toughest challenge i may ever face.
It’s a confused time, of course. Biden-Trump worries a lot of people. As we know, 45 is capable of anything in the next seventy-odd days.
——————————————————-
The show has just started. Many days to build the suspense then the real show will begin.
IF I am right you will need a big bowl of popcorn as this show goes on until Inauguration.
In the end many of the swamp may be Vanquished, MSM will look like fools, Big Tech will be begging for forgiveness and 45 will be around for a 2nd Term.
It should be quite the show. It will start after PA or GA gets flipped back RED… IMO.
P.S. Why all the COVID Talk today? Don’t you know everyone is partying in the streets down south and COVID is gone now that Biden won.
Hey, Mr. T, don’t risk your health by going to Toronto.
Stay safe at home.
In memory of my Father, who served in the liberation of Holland. September 1944 to April 1945.
#85 Nonplused on 11.11.20 at 7:58 pm
Anyway we shall see. December 10th isn’t that far away. And I think the exercise is worth it because if nothing else Trump will confirm the election on his own dime. Better I think to clear up any doubts.
——-
You remind me of an old fashioned bean counter, who always insisted on balancing everything even if it was only for a penny.
He used to say: well. It’s out only a penny. But, what if it is over by 10,000, and under by 9,999.99.
And on he went wasting tons of company resources on the hunt for the elusive penny.
————
128 days till spring….
https://days.to/spring/2021
We can do this.
Roaring 20-es?
Hardly. Maybe for the rich.
People can’t retire.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-forces-canadians-to-adjust-their-retirement-views-163930600.html
They will spend less as many jobs are gone.
The trend that will be enforced by the newly elected president south is to cut emissions and accordingly consumption of energy.
The big one is the outsourcing of jobs and automation which will fast and irreversibly eliminate jobs.
Plus we are at peak debt and people talk about the big reset/the big monetary and economic reset is the topic of the Davos summit.
It involves less consumption, green energy and sustainable living which in all possible flavors means reduced standard of living.
It is an official international policy to which our dear leader, the great money printer adheres strongly.
There is also equalization trend between developed and developing counters with the middle class rising in the developing and disappearing in the developed countries.
So the expectations of a new ‘roaring 20-es’ and revitalization of big cities will likely not happen.
What could GTA offer you except jobs in the past?
Now these are gone with little prospect of recovery.
WFH is here to stay. If not for jobs people would never float to the crowdy noisy places with almost nothing to do except work, basically a cheap labour camp.
Cheers,
#56 Dolce Vita on 11.11.20 at 6:22 pm
Agreed. One can never forget the power of media persuasion in the backdrop of “trillions in stimulus” and “meaningful government action” but the fact remains, it’s still an ongoing pandemic with a vaccine that won’t be available until flu season passes. Market media and investors simply cannot avoid the realities that are upon us right now, another 142k of daily cases for the U.S. on wednesday.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Take the state of Ohio as an example. The Republican gov there just announced that if these numbers continue to climb, hospitals will become overwhelmed and the state will have to shut down bars and restaurants and gyms etc. :
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4922751/ohio-governor-dewine-warns-pandemic-entered-dangerous-phase#
The state of Illinois reported twice the numbers as Ohio per similar state population:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/illinois-urges-residents-to-work-remotely-and-stay-home-for-3-weeks/ar-BB1aVhA1
Illinois is in a recent tier 1 shutdown (restaurants, bars) in effect in Illinois but some restaurants and bars are still operating rural (stubborn Republicans or individuals of convenience not taking it seriously) with no laws enforced to shut them down meaning these numbers will likely continue to climb forcing governors to close down more business and/or enforce mandatory masks etc. . Predictable a month ago? It was. Where is the U.S. a month from now? Experiencing shut downs.
Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho, Iowa, Colorado, its blowing up in lots of the more rural, smaller populated states now and some of these states have been politicized with Republican Trump cultured entitlement speak. It’s a dark time for the U.S. right now. There’s so much virus denial and misinformation, its a mess and its all in the backdrop of an economy that wants to look past this pandemic or pretend or fake that it doesn’t really exist, but can’t. Not without reality soon to remind us why and its really about hospitals.
When hospitals get overwhelmed, it forces governors to react, the economic damage is real and widespread and there’s not much else to say unless, of course, you live in an alt universe. Cybin Inc. may have an answer for that with their magic mushroom micro dosing therapy! Don’t laugh, (but one can still chuckle) they raised $10.4 mil in an IPO with a plan to dose the nuthouses): :)
https://www.qualitystocks.com/clients/cybin-inc/
I’m going to raise a glass and toast all those Veterans, that have made it possible to live in a great country. Times are tough, now, and are likely to get more difficult, but think back to many Fathers, and Grandfathers, who lived with War, and made it to better times… I am trying to use my time wisely and we will round, this corner, as well, to better days,… great to order in a meal or two a week, to help the folks, most negatively affected by this lousy virus..
#63 Steerage on 11.11.20 at 6:52 pm
Sorry, in an unrealized recession, fresh out of cheer here!
No reasonable person will take vaccine that is not well tested (at lest two years). According to you half of the people are not reasonable, oh I forgot half voted Trump :)
#87 Faron on 11.11.20 at 8:05 pm
Regarding tips: yep, I tip 20% on take out now for vendors I want to see survive (local joints, never chains). I also use interac or otherwise try to reduce their transaction costs. Little bits go a long way.
If you can afford take out/delivery/dine in, then yes you should be able to afford a tip. That’s trickle down in action, eh?
remember tho, when you buy delivery/takeout/dine in a significant portion of your dollar goes to labour and replacement food. However when you buy a gift certificate 100% of the money is available to the restaurateur to deploy as she finds need.
What we have been doing since almost day one is 1) carrying cash sufficient to cover any tips needed and 2) paying for our meal via Interac and also buying a gift certificate in an equal amount. We regularly go to 3 different locally owned and operated joints. But even the irregular higher end places would get the same practice.
I doubt we will ever use any of the gift certificates for the intended purpose but they make awesome paper girl, lawn guy, window cleaner tips. With Christmas coming up the higher dollar value ones will be nice gifts for some as well. I gave the garden lady enough of them from one joint that she will be able to take her entire staff (4)and their partners out for a Christmas dinner at no cost to her. wonder how our garden beds will look next year?
#93 Vexatious Litigator I’m told that the cheese on pizzas – and in all major franchised restaurants – is mainly SOY filler. There is a tiny % of cheese in it . Apparently comes in bricks from Sysco, Gordon et al.
That’s nachos w/soy in reality.
Prepare?? Global:
https://app.fing.com/internet/outages
#82 John in Mtl
I get elderly/vulnerable mingle, but right now, they still have to take precautions because many Covid carriers are asymptomatic…so society loses with lockdowns but the vulnerable are still vulnerable…seems like a lose-lose.
#84 Paul
“My question for you is what makes your solution more tenable and why has it not been adopted? Do you not believe that the option has been seriously considered and the costs and benefits weighed?”
To be honest, I have reservations with the “experts”. At first, we were told masks were of no use, now we have extreme mask enforcement. I was in surgury before Covid, Doctors wore masks. How could they be so clueless??? Also, they offer advice like if you have sex, wear a mask. Does anyone in the real world actually believe this advice will be followed??? The only solution is lockdown, then reopen a bit, then another lockdown…rinse and repeat ad nauseum.
I think the “health experts” are really only weighing the risk of Covid. They don’t factor in job losses or bankruptcies because that is not their focus. If they open too quickly or make a mistake and people get Covid, they are accountable. If they lock everything down, people lose jobs/businesses and this leads to other problems, they are not accountable because it’s not their fault. Sort of like how schools ban games like tag because it’s too “dangerous”. If a kid gets hurt on school grounds, the school board is responsible. But if they limit the kids to no “dangerous” play, and the kids sit around and get fat and die early, they are not at fault for that – so they are only looking at one side of the equation, imo.
Regarding the Pfizer vaccine. It is very common for interim analysis of studies to show more extreme results than “the truth”. This is due to low event rates. As a study progresses, the benefit (or harm) randomly oscillates around “the truth” and those oscillations tighten up as the sample size gets larger and more events are accrued. So, I am always suspect of huge magnitude of benefit in an interim analysis, especially when it is unexpected. In this case 90% efficacy which is way more than was hoped for. I suspect the final analysis will still show benefit, but not so large. Would love to be wrong, but have seen this repeatedly in critically appraising medical literature.
-LD
Anyway we shall see. December 10th isn’t that far away. And I think the exercise is worth it because if nothing else Trump will confirm the election on his own dime. Better I think to clear up any doubts.
______
I would say, that to any reasonable observer, this election is over. My understanding is that paying for vote recounts not mandated by law are very expensive. Challenging the election results is a lost cause.
You are overthinking this by citing Benford’s law. Occam’s Razor would be the better approach.
Trudeau is getting his revenge against Alberta for slighting him. If you doubted he and Gerald Butts could kill off Canada’s energy behemoth , doubt no More. The bodies are piling up. Obama killed KXL “ for appearances sake” as he stated leaving office. What a gloat Trudeau must be having over his sumptuous feast as Albertsons starve this winter.
https://financialpost.com/news/mental-degradation-a-fresh-wave-of-layoffs-is-pushing-albertans-to-the-edge-and-in-danger-of-losing-their-homes
Good luck getting back to the east coast garth, tell them your coming from NWT
#86 Dr V on 11.11.20 at 7:59 pm
25 Hi soggy. I found this link good for explaining some different scenarios
https://www.moneysense.ca/columns/how-often-should-you-rebalance/
Thanks Doc, I’ve been googling like mad and nothing seems to answer my question. Your link does contain the phrase
“this method requires you to monitor your holdings more closely”
which to me implies that if I’m going to use the 5/25 rule I should just set up a notification and do the rebalancing the day I get that notice rather than checking monthly.
I’ve never actually had to rebalance before since I just used deposits to do so. Retired 2 weeks ago though so there won’t be much of that anymore.
In preparation for this answer, I’ve been looking around for a notification system and all I can find is several that tell you when a stock price hits a number, not when a portfolio hits a certain weighting.
Perhaps a googlesheets script… I’ll keep looking.
Here comes the science! 10-10-10.
I love science. So sciencey. Go ahead, spin your own confinement.
My take is that all (former) first world countries must be shut down this year to pave the way to UBI in Q1.
Been saying this for a few weeks…and we see more and more shut downs. What more do you want?
…….
Albany, N.Y. – Gov. Andrew Cuomo says New York is taking actions to address rises in COVID-19 cases, and the new rules impact bars, restaurants, gyms and private gatherings.
During a conference call Wednesday, the governor said SLA-licensed establishments must close at 10 p.m. Curbside food pickup can continue past 10 p.m.
Gyms will also be required to close at 10 p.m.
Following suit with neighboring states, Cuomo said private gatherings such as parties will be capped at 10 people.
#96 aka416
And that is what makes Toronto a sh*thole
#112 truefacts on 11.11.20 at 9:45 p
#84 Paul
“My question for you is what makes your solution more tenable and why has it not been adopted? Do you not believe that the option has been seriously considered and the costs and benefits weighed?”
______
To be honest, I have reservations with the “experts”. At first, we were told masks were of no use, now we have extreme mask enforcement. I was in surgury before Covid, Doctors wore masks. How could they be so clueless??? Also, they offer advice like if you have sex, wear a mask. Does anyone in the real world actually believe this advice will be followed??? The only solution is lockdown, then reopen a bit, then another lockdown…rinse and repeat ad nauseum.
I think the “health experts” are really only weighing the risk of Covid. They don’t factor in job losses or bankruptcies because that is not their focus. If they open too quickly or make a mistake and people get Covid, they are accountable. If they lock everything down, people lose jobs/businesses and this leads to other problems, they are not accountable because it’s not their fault. Sort of like how schools ban games like tag because it’s too “dangerous”. If a kid gets hurt on school grounds, the school board is responsible. But if they limit the kids to no “dangerous” play, and the kids sit around and get fat and die early, they are not at fault for that – so they are only looking at one side of the equation, imo.
_____
I appreciate your response. I have serious reservations about “experts” as well. Mostly in Universities and what is happening there with regards to academic freedom.
Regarding masks, I live in Vancouver and never understood folks that wore masks pre-pandemic. Basically, I thought they were paranoid and anti-social.
I’ve since come to understand that it was behaviour that resulted from prior viral outbreaks in Asia, but that it was also public service to keep other people from getting sick. All that to say, you change your approach based on the evidence.
A fair point on the primary concern of public health – but elected officials make the final call. I don’t think it is an easy decision. In BC, the government direction (until two days ago) was to have provincial government workers return to the office to support failing local businesses. That plan has been shelved in the immediate term but I don’t think they are not considering the economic and social collateral.
Regarding, school playgrounds and the associated risk, well, I agree 100% with your point there.
#78 Ace goodlord
You sound like my brothers-in-law – completely nuts
That should read:
I have serious reservations about SOME “experts” as well.
CDC now says masks protect wearers from Covid-19
By Lauren Mascarenhas, CNN
November 11, 2020
Wearing a mask can help protect you, not just those around you, from coronavirus transmission, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in new guidance Tuesday. The statement was an update to previous guidance suggesting the main benefit of mask wearing was to help prevent infected people from spreading the virus to others.
Cloth masks act as “source control” to block virus particles exhaled by the wearer and provide “filtration for personal protection” by blocking incoming infectious droplets from others, the CDC said in its new guidance.
The new guidance cites a number of studies showing that masks reduce the risk of transmitting or catching the virus by more than 70% in various instances. One study revealed mutual mask-use helped prevent two infected hair stylists from transmitting the virus to 67 clients who were later interviewed. Another followed infected people who spent more than 10 hours on flights without infecting other passengers when masks were used.
In several scenarios, when officials told people to wear masks, infections and deaths fell significantly, the CDC pointed out.
“Adopting universal masking policies can help avert future lockdowns, especially if combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, hand hygiene, and adequate ventilation,” the CDC said.
The agency cited an economic analysis that found a 15% increase in universal masking could prevent losses of up to $1 trillion….
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-now-says-masks-protect-wearers-from-covid-19/ar-BB1aTmeM?c=6581148263726041717&mkt=en-gb
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#46 Whatif — “For anyone that watched the Tuesday election, it had every single sign of a fraudulent election.”
So who do you trust to fix COVID and fix the economy? The party that can easily fix an election, or the party that can’t, and can’t prove the other guys did it, even though they had the advantage of incumbency, they thought the other guys were going to do it, and they had volunteers watching the whole thing? It’s a no-brainer.
N.B. DJT needs YOUR money, TODAY, to STOP THIS FRAUD (and pay off some old campaign debts, and for sundry corporate purposes which are, frankly, none of your damn business). But DJT can only STOP THIS FRAUD if you donate more than $8,000. Less than that, it goes to his hairdresser. So dig deep, patriots, unless you want the Dirty Dems to get away with STEALING this election.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-election-trump-fundraising-insigh/donations-under-8k-to-trump-election-defense-instead-go-to-president-rnc-idUKKBN27R30B
#106 Robert Ash on 11.11.20 at 9:35 pm
I’m going to raise a glass and toast all those Veterans, that have made it possible to live in a great country. Times are tough, now, and are likely to get more difficult, but think back to many Fathers, and Grandfathers, who lived with War, and made it to better times…
—————-
Thanks- much appreciated!
Us vets aren’t getting much recognition this year as the world has moved on…
“Had coffee on a Yonge Street sidewalk bench with a colleague this morning.”
You are back in Toronto?
No, it was a really long bench.
So the WEF just put this out:
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_NES_Resetting_FOW_Agenda_2020.pdf
They are an organization that should be closely watched as being nefarious.
#120 Paul.
Thx for replying. Maybe BC has been different? I haven’t followed it.
In Ontario we’ve had lockdowns then reopenings, then more lockdowns (a lot of it backed up by little factual evidence of transmission). It’s been really hard for small operators trying to comply, only to be handed ridiculous bylaw infraction tickets even though the rules are vague and ever-changing. Many will never reopen.
The media keeps announcing case counts daily (over 1,000 per day!!!) without ever mentioning that this might have resulted in 2 or 3 deaths out of a population of 14 million. The deaths are disproportionately in long-term care homes in people with underlying health issues. Focus resources there to protect them and let’s get on with life.
We can’t simply continually lock down – it’s not working…
#111 TurnerNation
Dude, your losing it. Q and A to the nth degree. Nasty mindset.
Relax a little.
#94 Laughing hyena on 11.11.20 at 8:31 pm
#27 Stone on 11.11.20 at 5:30 pm
Just for the month of November, my net worth has grown $60,000. That’s 11 days. WTF!
B&D is 6.45% YTD
_____________________________________
Wow! That’s horrible. You must be devestated. My condolences. Don’t despair. We all make mistakes.
Perhaps you’ve got some duds in your portfolio that you need to part with. I remember that happened to me once, but that was during the last recession. Took me forever to get over it though.
Please tell me you don’t have preferred shares in your portfolio.
———
Actually, unless Garth says my current returns on my B&D are sub-standard or out of whack, I’m not concerned. Since he didn’t say that, I’m assuming I’m good.
And to answer your question, I do have preferreds. I didn’t have them before when they were going down but I picked them up at $7.25 through ZPR when I rebalanced my portfolio at the end of March. They’re now at $9.33. That’s a 29% return not including the dividend.
Rub tummy.
Oh, I see we’re observing Remembrance Day (or, in Ontario, Remembrance Week, apparently).
Well, here’s to my grandfather. Translator, eastern front, WWII, German army.
Did I not say this is all about global control over our Movements, Breeding and Feeding?
Who is this guy. Anyone who still thinks this all is about our health…welcome to the long-planned new global order. Rolled out that one day in March.
https://twitter.com/_Klaus_Schwab/status/1325393475270041601
Klaus Schwab
@_Klaus_Schwab
Engineer, Economist. Chairman and founder of the World Economic Forum
#OwnNothingBeHappy #BuildBackBetter
Nov 8
Due to mandatory social restrictions, single people are finding it more difficult than ever to meet each other.
As the global population is currently not #sustainable and birth rates need to fall, this can be viewed as a very positive outcome of the #Covid_19 pandemic
^is it a parody account or sublime truth ? Does it matter at this stage? It’s happening.
#110 TurnerNation on 11.11.20 at 9:39 pm
#93 Vexatious Litigator I’m told that the cheese on pizzas – and in all major franchised restaurants – is mainly SOY filler. There is a tiny % of cheese in it . Apparently comes in bricks from Sysco, Gordon et al.
That’s nachos w/soy in reality.
———-
Yeah, looks like plastic, tastes like plastic.
The minute the “cheese” gets cold, it reverts to its natural brick state.
#126 Sail Away on 11.11.20 at 10:55 pm
#106 Robert Ash on 11.11.20 at 9:35 pm
I’m going to raise a glass and toast all those Veterans, that have made it possible to live in a great country. Times are tough, now, and are likely to get more difficult, but think back to many Fathers, and Grandfathers, who lived with War, and made it to better times…
—————-
Thanks- much appreciated!
Us vets aren’t getting much recognition this year as the world has moved on…
——————
Thanks Sailo,
For your service in WWII.
Did not know you are that old.
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See elsewhere…what must be stored at -80c?
google search: how to freeze DNA.
Umm what is in that. For our health Comrade?
” DNA material used in a short time frame may be stored at -20C. DNA stored long term should be in ultra-low freezers, typically at or below -80C which should prevent the degradation of nucleic acids in the DNA.”
…
Now you know why they had us mail in our DNA, why Iceland’s ‘CV testing’ firm is a genetics company.
23 & Me
Ancestry .com
We are the product on this earth:
“Earlier this week, Blackstone announced it was paying $4.7 billion to acquire Ancestry.com, a pioneer in pop genetics that was launched in the 1990s to help people find out more about their family heritage. Ancestry’s customers get an at-home DNA kit that they send back to the company.Aug 7, 2020
Private equity wants to own your DNA – CBS News”
Is Martin Armstrong, economic forecaster, for real?
I was in the city last week and although I do not have an office in those big city towers I’ve been there …certainly not renting space but delivering documents for my employer. I have no idea the money wrapped up in Real Estate there but no one is there right now…Im staying in the country…not far from Belfountain and counting my blessings…
interesti g tweet about freezerx and transport of Ebola vaccine in-80c containers…
https://twitter.com/amymaxmen/status/1326715250268385285
As the contagion increases, I expect lockdowns similar to March/April if healthcare systems become overwhelmed, which is entirely in the realm of possibilities. A loss of jobs/income/mobility will naturally follow leading to a loss of confidence. To me, this is deflationary and I can’t see how the market prices that in – specifically the US market where all eyes have been trained to look to for forward guidance. My best guess is extremely unstable times ahead for all markets so I plan to ride this wave out until a mass vaccination plan can be implemented – between now and then I believe the US Fed and CB’s of the western world will begin to print like there is no tomorrow which will present a lot of new opportunities to make money if you have money. Now is when it gets interesting. And patience is key.
#114 Paul on 11.11.20 at 9:47 pm
Anyway we shall see. December 10th isn’t that far away. And I think the exercise is worth it because if nothing else Trump will confirm the election on his own dime. Better I think to clear up any doubts.
______
I would say, that to any reasonable observer, this election is over. My understanding is that paying for vote recounts not mandated by law are very expensive. Challenging the election results is a lost cause.
You are overthinking this by citing Benford’s law. Occam’s Razor would be the better approach.
—————————
There is a little fraud in everything. People are only naturally honest among their own small family and tribe.
You are correct that paying for vote recounts is very expensive, which is why Trump is having “Stop The Steal” rallies to raise money.
Applying Occam’s Razor to a Benford analysis results in some mental contortions. If, for example, a data series does not conform to to Benford’s law, Occam’s razor could be just as easily used to say “obviously there was data manipulation (fraud)” as it could be used to say “oh well we have explanations for all these anomalies”.
I have no doubt in my mind that there was fraud in this election. But there is fraud in every election and indeed in pretty much everything. The question is, was it material? We will see.
The US has a method written into their constitution as to how these things are settled, and it doesn’t have anything to do with Fox News or CNN. Never did. It doesn’t have anything to do with Benford’s Law or Occam’s Razor either. It has to do with counting verified ballots and passing the results up through the state legislatures and then the electoral college. It includes provisions for recounts and forensic audits (paid for by the challenger unless it is close).
Anyone calling this election prior to Pennsylvania being sorted out is jumping the gun. Even the Chinese seem to have at least that much understanding of US law.
That said I still think it will be Biden who wins, but we are going to have to wait until December to find out.
PS one of the easiest ways to spot a fraudulent election is extremely high voter turnout. Voter turnout doesn’t change that much on its own. People are sick, away on business or vacation, don’t care, what have you. The fact that Biden got the largest number of votes in history, more than Obama, more than Hillary, and more than an incumbent Trump who was rallying the troops because of potential fraud, is a red flag right there.
#136 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.11.20 at 11:44 pm
#126 Sail Away on 11.11.20 at 10:55 pm
#106 Robert Ash on 11.11.20 at 9:35 pm
I’m going to raise a glass and toast all those Veterans, that have made it possible to live in a great country. Times are tough, now, and are likely to get more difficult, but think back to many Fathers, and Grandfathers, who lived with War, and made it to better times…
———
Thanks- much appreciated!
Us vets aren’t getting much recognition this year as the world has moved on…
———-
Thanks Sailo,
For your service in WWII.
Did not know you are that old.
———-
War is war, pal. Mine was the Gulf.
Yours?
In terms of affordable housing: http://www.chpc.biz/demographia.html
…Calgary ranks 26/50 (1 is most affordable)
In terms of Absorption rates:
http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html
… Calgary is a buyers market (compared to Ottawa)
…especially with Albertans whose annual employment earnings are $63,132 and are:
5% above Ontario
9% above the national Canadian average
11% above BC and
15% above Quebec (no typo)
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html
…and their single family detached market has been reliable for the last 6 years:
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html
Giddy up.
Back to Benford’s Law, I thought of another good example of how base 10 counting systems are not found in nature except among goat herders. Yes, your friendly computer.
Binary mathematics is sort of exponential. Numbers (and it is all numbers even this text) are not stored 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8. They are stored 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128. The missing numbers are filled in through addition. For example there is no “3” in a computer there is only 1,2. There is no “5” there is only 1,0,4. There is no “7” there is only 1,2,4. There is no “33” there is only 1,0,0,0,0,32. Of course in computereze that would be 10000100 but hey.
Kind of mind boggling when you first think about it. Our computers don’t even use base 10. Base 10 is for monkeys.
It also explains why a 64 bit computer can handle so much more data than a 32 bit computer can. Roughly speaking for simplicity, a 32 bit computer can handle 2^32 memory locations (because they have to be integers for reasons let’s not go into). So roughly 4.29×10^9 locations, or (not sure about this bit) 4 gigabytes. A 64 bit computer can handle 1.89×10^19 memory locations, which I don’t think such a computer has ever been built and I don’t think we have a name for such a thing. Surely going to 64 bit was unnecessary but it is easier to build 2-32 bit things than arrange a whole new architecture.
Nature is exponential. Even the parts of it we build. If you see something linear, it was man made.
(PS I know from experience any program running in 32 bits cannot exceed 4 gigabytes or it will crash, and usually without explanation. I also know it is not easy to just move over to the 64 bit version of Excel because the 32 bit version still commonly in use cannot open any of the 64 bit files. But if you could and had the hardware, the 64 bit version of Excel would all but eliminate the need for most databases.)
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On the one hand:
Look, Democrats literally believe Trump is Hitler. Of course they’d do anything to steal this election.
On the other hand:
Look, there’s no way this many Democrats voted. High turnout is evidence of FRAUD!
Same person posted both of these, folks. Cognitive dissonance. Know the signs.
Having grown up in Toronto, I sometimes reminisce about the things I loved about it.
However, whenever I drive down to the city, I immediately understand why I left. It hits me like a ton of bricks (traffic, homelessness, people EVERYWHERE, etc.)
I am not here to join the asinine burb/rural vs. city debate, other than to say a big city is not for me. It gives me anxiety just being in Toronto.
Cities have been one of man’s greatest inventions, no denying that. But it’s not for everyone.
It will be interesting to see how and if cities rebound. New York is in dire straights at the moment, not unlike the 1970s. How will they stabilize their finances this time?
Trump, Biden. Does not matter at my level. To ensure a good use of savings, it’s a good idea to buy a dollar when Mr. market is offering it for 50cents.
Yes. Normal will return. When? Starting March and beyond according to this conspiracy theory.
Enjoy:
Conspiracy theory heard. No proof available.
The pandemic was systematically used by the Democrats to split the Trump base. Apparently it worked. The pandemic will stay in news till Mr. Biden in sworn in and then the media will systematically focus on other news. The pandemic will fade into oblivion. The masses have short memories.
#142 Dan in Vancouver
Deflation, High unemployment and out of control spending don’t mix.
Expect inflation first then stagflation later when they open the floodgates of unprecedented generous support to the masses of unproductive and rising numbers of unemployed.
Oh, you’ll get a form of deflation eventually, but that along with runaway inflation combined as unemployment levels rise…stagflation not total deflation … the cost of essentials steadily inflate and non life supporting assets begin to deflate in value when they raise rates to cool down inflation.
One can sit back and take in the smooth talk from the BoC and then more and more with each passing month until we get there.
No worries though just as long as…JT’s here…he’s there…he’s everywhere. Isn’t that wonderful.
‘Should Pfizer’s vaccine continue to gain momentum and hit the markets, Laird expects bond yields will rapidly recover, giving lenders the ability to hike mortgage rates alongside them. In a post-pandemic world, where inflation is on the table, a much faster and more powerful escalation could occur.’
—-
from today’s National Post
#51 Don Cherry
I’m talkin to you, Dharma Bum and Dolce Vita and jal and GrumpyPanda and anyone else who’s not Old Stock Canadian.
——————————————————————–
I’m in my 60s, white, and born in Canada, man.
In other words, I’m a visible minority.
It’s interesting watching every crazy progressive get their Wish List to Uncle Joe. He won’t be able to say no to anybody.
Does everyone have popcorn ready to watch the Portland-ization of America?
Glad I’m in Canada. Joe will make his marks on America….Karl Marx.
#97 Sail Away on 11.11.20 at 8:39 pm
The bank manager looks back at her and says, “It’s a knick-knack, Patty Whack. Give the frog a loan. His old man’s a Rolling Stone.”
//////////////////
That reminds me of the joke about the 12″ pianist.
#146 Nonplused on 11.12.20 at 2:04 am
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Um digital “computers” don’t count in the sense we do, in the most fundamental sense, they’re base2. They have zero sense of negative/positive integers, exponents, fractions and so on, their creator (us) devised clever routines to work around that. There’s subtle but real gotchas and inaccuracies ‘counting’ depending on what you’re doing.
Humans have use/used all sorts of arbitrary bases, 10,12,15,20, whatever works for us.
Most microcode, lower than assembly, tends to use base16 hex pairs regardless of if it’s higher level program is 32-bit or 64-bit signed integers. Because of how powers of 2 work, base2 can be extrapolated to higher bases easily. Of course right at the transistor level, all base2.
#51 Don Cherry
I’m talkin to you, Dharma Bum and Dolce Vita and jal and GrumpyPanda and anyone else who’s not Old Stock Canadian.
—–
You are not “Old Stock”.
That’s a Quebec expression that was used by the separatists.
The US uses other names to separate and classify who is the better group.
I think that there is a nomenclature that is used by the original residents of the east coast, …. the Acadians.
153 Dharma Bum on 11.12.20 at 9:05 am
#51 Don Cherry
I’m talkin to you, Dharma Bum and Dolce Vita and jal and GrumpyPanda and anyone else who’s not Old Stock Canadian.
——————————————————————–
I’m in my 60s, white, and born in Canada, man.
In other words, I’m a visible minority
—————-
Just put on a mask, and no one can tell.
Which is worse the lockdown financially or the deaths from exposure to Covid 19?
Perhaps if authorities were consistent in advising that the entire population be taking moderate Vitamin D3 and C daily, say 4000-8000 D3 units and 1-2 grams C all these deaths would not occur. There are data that D3 lessens mortality from Covid 19. The data for vitamin C is more general however C is a known antiviral. Using such information would help businesses as there would be more room for error in that if people were to get Covid they would be less likely to die. People sometimes laugh and say they are just vitamins. At moderate doses Vitamin D3 and C also enhance health so these people are losing out of these health benefits in addition to lessening Covid 19 mortality risks.
The Pfizer mRNA vaccine has many unanswered questions: What are the long term side effects? How long does immunity last if it actually does provide Covid immunity? What are the short term side effects? Interestingly in a phase 1 trial the side effects were slightly different in comparing 25 mcg vs 50 and 100 mcgs. So does that equate with efficacy? Is the code written by Pfizer correct and if so, will the body interpret the mRCA code correctly and not trigger an autoimmune reaction which will last for who knows how long? Many many unanswered questions. Personally the adenovirus vaccine, Sputnik is one of them is known to possibly trigger a fever, but the technology is different. It will interesting to see which vaccine is chosen and if it is the mRNA how will the -80 storage and short shelf life parameters be maintained? Im not touching an mRNA vaccine until I see more data long term and see how others react. Autoimmune issues are no joke. Right now Sputnik seems a better choice than the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines.
What is available right now for anyone who can shop in a store is vitamin D3 and C. England authorities have just last week advocated that the general public start taking vitamins. About time. Theresa Tam MD’s response in Canada has been pathetic as to how the general public should protect itself.
Re question regarding re-balancing using Larry Swedro approach
Try here…Canadian Portfolio Manager
https://www.canadianportfoliomanagerblog.com/calculators/
#73 Handsome Ned on 11.11.20 at 7:18 pm
I see where Deutsche bank is suggesting a 5% tax on WFH people. Evidently because they are essentially getting an untaxed savings from office and commuting expenses. I’m sure our governments here are paying attention. Perhaps they could charge renters a 5% income surcharge for not paying property tax, or EV drivers for not paying fuel taxes. The possibilities are endless.
—————————————————————–
Yup, I came across that article as well.
https://financialpost.com/executive/careers/remote-workers-should-be-taxed-for-privilege-of-working-at-home-says-deutsche
Dining in enclosed tents is fine, but dining inside a restaurant is too dangerous so prohibited … because science. Wake up sheeple, you’re being played.
#78 Ace Goodheart
———
I guess you missed 1984?
Pretty scary you are indeed.
#104 Stan Brooks on 11.11.20 at 9:26 pm
“The big one is the outsourcing of jobs and automation which will fast and irreversibly eliminate jobs.
It involves less consumption, green energy and sustainable living which in all possible flavors means reduced standard of living.
It is an official international policy to which our dear leader, the great money printer adheres strongly.
There is also equalization trend between developed and developing counters with the middle class rising in the developing and disappearing in the developed countries.
So the expectations of a new ‘roaring 20-es’ and revitalization of big cities will likely not happen.”
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Stan – you missed part of the plan.
Yes they will turn 7 Billion into a powerless lower middle class grey goo on the human farm.
But the other 800 Million, they are promised to be the new Aristocracy. With full travel rights and miraculous medical enhancements placing themselves permanently above the herd (the end of history for them).
How else did they get the powerful to buy into this plan.
So for the 800 Million it will be the roaring 20’s again. Likely you are in the top % of Wealth Holders, so simply hold on your ascendency is near.
Did you miss last months Illuminati Newsletter?
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Canada is finished with Mr. Trudeau Liberals budgets balance themselves. Even Chretien is trying to save him.
I would not be surprised if Trudeau is here for another 4 years we see a 2.5 to 3 trillion dollars national Canada debt. We will see if you let me post this.
Yowsers look at this. I’ve been saying it’s going to be a long cold winter here in Kanada Comrade.
Look at these people forced to line up outside in frigid weather in order to buy food. In Winnipeg.
Say has this ever happened in history…food lines in the cold. This time the corporations are enforcing this.
Once you get who really h8s our freedoms….it all makes sense. For your health!
https://twitter.com/FredFredderson1/status/1326311982534946816
#Communism continues in #Winnipeg.
@BrianPallister
tells us he wants us safe and healthy, yet to buy groceries we are forced to freeze our asses off in November. Winnipeg gets to -40c in the winter, what will we do then? How is this humane? Twisted and torturous. #EndTheLockdown
“Maybe in 2022 or 2023, we’ll party like it was 2019. The roaring Twenties. Coming. Be patient.”
Garth all glory is fleeting. Remember what happened at the end of the roaring twenties…..
On the other hand my mutual fund that I bought shares in on the 2nd at $17.78 is as of yesterday $18.57. 79 cents gained in 8 trading days. I’m interested in finding out what the criteria for share splits is and how frequently they happen. Do you think my advisor at the TD could tell me?
#143 “There is a little fraud in everything.”
In some cases the fraud is more than a little.
Depending on the fraudster of course.
President Bonespur wins the kewpie doll. Here is cataloged Just 4 years of a remarkable 74 years of complete and utter BS.
Lock Him Up!
https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/the-complete-listing-so-far-atrocities-1-978
RE: #163 Bill on 11.12.20 at 12:16 pm
#78 Ace Goodheart
———
I guess you missed 1984?
Pretty scary you are indeed.
///////////////////////////////////////////
I wonder what the difference is?
Making me memorize a hundred passwords for a hundred different things I need to get into from time to time.
Making me carry an ID package that is so large it doesn’t fit in my wallet.
Or making me get an iris scan, and all of that stuff becomes a bad memory?
Why are people so scared of this?
We are never going to get “back to the wild” where we can wander free, cross international borders like flocks of birds in the winter, access common resources like a Toronto racoon accesses people’s backyard garbage bins.
We are always going to be heavily controlled. The more people there are, the more control there will be.
So why not simplify it?
RE: #167 TurnerNation on 11.12.20 at 1:33 pm
Yeah the folks from the Peg got social distance lines.
Have fun with that.
I tried them once and said to hell with that nonsense.
You can order everything online. Now I don’t even go out. I can order groceries to my door. Beer. Wine. Anything and everything, arrives in delivery vans. They even ring the bell.
People complain about this.
“I want to go and bump elbows with a bunch of people I don’t know, in a Costco, in January, wearing winter clothing that makes me sweat as I push my way down the aisles.”
People need the socialization? When was the last time you actually talked to someone in a Costco, unless you were arguing with them about who was next in line?
Herd animal shopping trips are for the birds. That is how they get their seed. They dump it all in one place and the whole flock comes and pecks away.
I like the more civilized method. Deliver it to my home.
You can go and peck with the flock. I get my stuff personalized delivered.
Power out some turkey took out a pole good thing I started the woody last night and on Genset.
So always have a plan!
Anywho in my view on RE these guys are second to none so if you have REITs or just looking for 2 bits on housing and trends.
Like Garth says stay invested (add when we have meltdowns) and on RE if your not over leverage and can manage expenses at higher int rates just chill and enjoy the ride.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nw8HI1_ekKc&feature=youtu.be
speaks for itself:
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/save-capitalism-tax-boomers-new-report-suggests?__vfz=medium%3Dconversations_top_pages
welcome back to the big smoke, Mr T
Biden adviser: US lockdown of four-to-six weeks could drive down Covid-19 numbers
but Mitch says no to the stimulus?
…”if the government covered lost wages and small business losses, a member of President-elect Biden’s transition coronavirus advisory board has said.Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, suggested the idea in an interview with Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.
Osterholm said that the personal savings rate in the US had increased, and there was “a big pool of money out there” which could be borrowed at historic low interest rates by the federal government.
“We could pay for a package right now to cover all of the wages, lost wages for individuals workers, for losses to small companies to medium-sized companies,” Osterholm said. “For cities, states, county governments, we can do all of that.”
Mostly gas stations, general stores in town, a hardware store. The Restaurant around here delivers. Took them about 4 hours reaction time to change stategies and jack prices, half a dozen picnic tables out back and they didn’t miss a beaten egg. The human species needs to parlez, mingle. I have no idea how govs will deal with a year or two of rolling lockdowns without the social structure collapsing to any degree. Imagine being 16 years old in this.
I recall reading about the breakdown of civilizations in some archeological text. One of the common causes was apathy. People got so turned around, they just walked away. This happens over generations, not in 2021. I think governments forget we are mammals. That 16yo kid is just supposed get a job and buy a $2.8 mill shack in 15 years, according to charts.
If I was 16, I would get a license, print cards/set up ecomm, and run a fetch service. Run it smart with good branding and franchise in 18 mos. Heck, I’d pony up 10k for some grad that had scruples and moxy. I could sit at a picnic table and watch my investment cutting people off in traffic.
@ Ace Goodheart:
My thoughts are to just jam a chip into every newborn at some predetermined start date. Chip is loaded with a million dollars. But chippers get no welfare, no EI, no CPP, OAS, no anything.
Over time the non-chippers move away and/or pass away, each wave of that lessening the use of existing entitlements. As more and more chippers move into the workforce you will have entrepreneurial types, sit at home types, all types but they all need to buy food, clothing, shelter.
The arts will blossom, the creative types will no longer need to enslave themselves to exist. Sporty types will be able to concentrate on training (that along with removal of any dope testing will make stupendous Olympics, no?)
at a certain point there will be a few pensioners left to clear up but in a generation we will mostly be chippers.
Immigrants will have a formula whereby they can buy their way into the plan or go it on their own.
Just as the chippers rise so too does all the infrastructure and population of welfare, EI, government pensions, etc, decline.
Traffic fines, non criminal bylaw fines, etc all handled via chip. Socially irresponsible, your chip is degraded, deactivated or even blown up…depending.
No more shop lifting…walk into a store and walk out…the chip knows. No more deadbeat dads, the chip knows but also no more mom’s spending the child support on breast implants, the chip knows and its the child’s chip that receives the dough. No more uncollected speeding fines, chip.
Chip, chip, chip!
Community Reinvestment Act.
On May 20, 2020, the OCC finalized a rule substantially revising the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), altering how OCC regulated banks would be assessed for compliance with the law.23 The Fed and FDIC did not sign on to the OCC’s final rule, which was criticized by a wide range of stakeholders.24 In September, the Fed advanced its own notice of proposed rule making on modifications to the CRA utilizing a different approach,25 which has generated some initial positive feedback from community and civil rights groups, as well as banking trades.26
Volcker Rule.
Following a October 2019 rulemaking where prudential regulators, along with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Future Trading Commission (CFTC),modified the compliance requirements for the Volcker Rule’s proprietary trading ban,27 these regulators finalized a second rule in June 2020 modifying the Volcker Rule’s sponsorship restrictions.28 Governor Brainard opposed the rule on the grounds that it “would open the door for firms to invest in a broad set of venture capital funds without limit…(and) to invest without limit in credit funds.”29
Swap Margin Rule. The Dodd-Frank Act
required most swaps to be cleared, with margin required. Margin is also required for uncleared swaps involving financial institutions whose primary regulator included one of the three banking regulators. Initial margin is the amount of margin posted when the swap is entered into, while variation margin is changes in the amount of margin posted over time to reflect changes in the underlying swap’s value. In June 2020, these regulators issued a final rule modifying the 2015 swap margin rule, exempting uncleared swaps with inter-affiliates from initial margin requirements, while keeping variation margin requirements.30 Fed Governor Brainard argued that the rule would significantly weaken a key capital requirement for the largest banks.31
Bank Partnerships and Fintech Charters.
At a recent hearing, the Committee’s Task Force on Financial Technology examined regulatory developments relating to various fintech charters in the banking sector, including for Industrial Loan Companies (ILCs) and OCC’s proposed fintech and payment charters.32 The Task Force also examined rent-a-bank schemes that may be advanced through bank partnerships as part of several rulemakings by the FDIC and OCC. Subsequently, the OCC finalized a rule to clarify when banks are the “true lender” in relation to third parties they may partner with, however consumer groups criticized the rule, arguing it will allow predatory lenders to evade state usury limits
https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hhrg-116-ba00-20201112-sd002.pdf
https://www.fdic.gov/news/speeches/spoct2020c.html
#175 jess on 11.12.20 at 3:43 pm
I don’t think the majority of states will have much choice but to shut down at least some parts of the economy and mandate masks as hospitals become overwhelmed. When hospitals become too busy to handle emergency or serious non elective surgery’s like cancer, we can double the case fatality rate numbers from Covid from the spillover effect onto other forms of illness and disease. Governors regardless of what politics they belong to or what they previously believed, they have to protect their citizens if they are at all interested in doing their jobs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI32IZq0l_c
#159 Calgary rip off on 11.12.20 at 10:59 am
Don’t forget Zinc! A Zinc deficiency will also crater immune system response and humanity is believed to be globally 25% deficient.
You may be unaware, Scotland and Ireland are now giving anyone testing positive with Covid, Vitamin D. We’ll know kind of results Vitamin D will have within weeks and once the world knows, “may” act accordingly and yes, Theresa Tam MD’s response in Canada has been slow. She’s following the Trump regime politicized lead of the CDC (and WHO) and in so doing, the CDC has only recently announced that this virus is airborne what, 2 weeks ago? That masks now protect you instead of others only just last week? Not a peep on deficiencies that impact immune systems, she could have led but chose to follow leaving room for obvious criticism.
#167 TurnerNation on 11.12.20 at 1:33 pm
RE:
Look at these people forced to line up outside in frigid weather in order to buy food. In Winnipeg.
———————————————
I still can’t figure why the hell anyone would want to live there!??! OMG
Still its ridiculous I get it. Make our stupid guy T2 lineup….
There ya go Garth
“Look for rising rates from 2021 to 2024, and likely in the years beyond”
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/post_el_nino_cooling_means_a_bottom_soon_for_bond_yields/
Re#177
You didn’t read the book of Revelations did you?
#170 Ace Goodheart
I cherish my freedom to move freely and choose.
Somethings are handy from this outcome but they have been corralling us in with hi tech for years where you are recorded, watched and manipulated. Your trapped into a system you can’t get out of. I’m setup where I can grow or shoot food, heat my house and live off of very little coin and I’m in the 1% in Canada. One EMF pulse you can’t run your toaster soon to be a smart one and certainly get your idiotic Skip the Dishses.
I don’t like to rely on anyone ironically the systems set you up for complete control. After 25years of working in hi tech I use as little as possible..
TurnerNation this ones for you.
If anyone is interested head over to Martin Armstrong’s site and read whats going to happen to YOU…
A vote for Biden the socialist party is a vote for no future.
Tumpster haters you will regret…
I’m getting more ammo and a compound bow.
Meant EMP…
Modern society is dead…
Hey Garth! Long time reade,r first time commentator. First off sorry to hear about Bandit I know that must have been extremely hard for you. Love the blog it has helped me create a 6 figure portfolio in under 5 years. I walked by you having coffee on my way to work (I’m at the gym Ryan Lewenza trains at) and thought to say hi but didn’t want to interrupt or scare ya! The place has great coffee by the way great choice!