Beane counting

DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
.

It looks like Billy Beane may be finished with the Oakland A’s.

Reports earlier this month suggest that Beane, famously credited with the low-cost, value-based Moneyball approach to Major League Baseball team-building, may be forced to resign from the A’s due to conflicting business interests with his investment firm, RedBall. If he does indeed resign, he’ll leave an impressive legacy.

Since Beane joined the A’s full-time as general manager in 1998, the A’s have won seven division titles, played in 13 postseason playoff series including wildcard games and produced the sixth most wins in baseball and did it all, as per the Moneyball method, at very low cost. The one criticism of Beane has always been the A’s lack of playoff success and World Series titles, but as Beane has bluntly put it: “My sh-t doesn’t work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f-cking luck.”

According to FiveThirtyEight, Beane’s teams actually should have had, statistically speaking, a bit more success in the playoffs than they did; however, his point is well taken. A large sample size is what truly reveals a strategy’s success. What happens in the short term is basically a coin toss. As Beane has also said, a full 162-game baseball season tends to eliminate randomness.

Naturally, the same holds true with investing. Short-term market timers are almost as likely to lose as to win on any given trading day while long-term investors have a much higher likelihood of profiting. Simply put, the long-term investor also largely eliminates randomness:

S&P 500: the shorter your holding period the more you rely on luck

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments. S&P 500 pricing data from January 1928 to present

Keep in mind also that the above table doesn’t include dividends, so when these are factored in, the likelihood of a long-term investor earning a profit rises even more. An S&P 500 investor with a 10-year time horizon, for example, should actually expect to profit more than 90% of the time.

Appropriately enough, given this week’s topic of Billy Beane and his low-cost Moneyball approach, the latest SPIVA Scorecard was also released this month and, once again, it proved overwhelmingly that paying more doesn’t necessarily mean better results.

SPIVA stands for S&P Indices Versus Active and its Scorecard measures the performance of actively managed funds against their relevant benchmark indices. What makes SPIVA great is that it corrects for survivorship bias, so if a fund closes due to poor performance, which happens constantly in our business, SPIVA makes sure that this performance is accounted for and not just quietly swept under the rug thus skewing the fund industry’s overall performance data. Here’s what the latest (released mid-October) SPIVA report had to say about Canadian mutual funds:

Although this volatile period offered ample opportunity for stock-pickers to shine, 88% of Canadian equity funds underperformed their benchmarks over the past year, in line with the 90% that did so over the past decade….

Canadian Equity funds were particularly notable for their level of underperformance. On an asset-weighted basis, Canadian Equity funds returned a dismal 7.9% below the S&P/TSX Composite over the past year, the worst relative performance of any fund category.

The story, of course, is much the same with US equity mutual funds, with the main cause of any mutual fund’s underperformance being its high cost. Whether you’re building a baseball team or building a portfolio, the one lesson we can learn from Billy Beane is to never overpay. And with mutual funds, generally speaking, that’s all investors are ever doing.

Stick with low-cost ETFs.

Smart investing’s no different than smart baseball: never pay more for a worse result.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

106 comments ↓

#1 IGV on 10.31.20 at 10:37 am

Cash is a position.

Rule#1

#2 Dharma Bum on 10.31.20 at 10:49 am

Hahahah – Mr. Bean!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wk2oRMHOyjE

#3 coastal zapper on 10.31.20 at 10:51 am

Ryan
What has the market done over history during US Presidential Elections?

#4 Linda on 10.31.20 at 10:54 am

‘Never pay more for a worse result’. Now all our government has to do is figure out how not to do just that. A heck of a load of new debt; restrictions on gatherings; rising cases despite shut downs etc. Was talking to a relative in Ontario. As per eyes on the ground there plenty of businesses are trying to hire but having little luck. The underlying cause is the virus – people saying they are afraid to go into work because they might catch it – but also the government assistance provided to those who qualify. People see little reason to work when they get more income on government assistance. So maybe the solution here is to increase the minimum wage so that they have a guarantee of receiving the same net income they get on CERB. Plus stop providing assistance to anyone who has been called back to work but is refusing to go on the grounds they fear catching the virus. Of course, that also means monitoring companies to ensure they are following health guidelines to prevent infections in their workforce. Whistleblower number should be provided to ensure companies do not try to skimp on the health requirements. Both would provide job opportunities to boot.

#5 David McDonald on 10.31.20 at 11:07 am

Thanks for the good advice. I think your analogy is apt. Just now however we are all thinking about the short term.

#6 Sail Away on 10.31.20 at 11:08 am

It is perfectly fine, prudent even, to bet against Canadian equities, but one should never bet against our hero Elon Musk:

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/316819-starlink-beta-speed-tests-put-traditional-satellite-internet-to-shame

#7 TurnerNation on 10.31.20 at 11:14 am

The future is happening right now. In my prefecture the cold weather has set in. Outside local merchants long lines appear; you see space must be limited because masks do not work. Oops Correction, everyone is wearing masks inside because they DO work, yet still we must limit space and have people outside, shivering in the cold getting sick. Makes sense in the context of a Thought Experiment. If you transgress these rules your local Block Captains will radio it in, dialing 311.

Seen elsewhere: you take a group of people scare them with something then re-enforce this fear daily with signs, wild eyes peering behind covered emotionless faces; blaring P.A. announcements; a culture of death in your face daily, numbers and all. Numb, the people accept it. Accept what?
This, Bill Gates’ quoted in 1997 – already today was laid out for us in this blurb. All events, culture is cancelled; That was the Old System.
https://imgur.com/W31qwBV

The goal is making day-to-day life so hard that people will be broken down, accept the new UN-government control, and flock online to the globalists’ companies.
Home food delivery. Ghost kitchens. All planned out. For your health Comrade.

#8 James on 10.31.20 at 11:23 am

#114 fishman

“In 2016 the only guy on here that was positive the Trumpster would win was the Smoking Man. All the rest of us Trump fan boys hedged our bets.”
——

Nope, completely wrong, fishman. I challenged my old rival the Emasculated Smoking Turd to put his money where his mouth was. Look it up. I told him to place a hard bet on Trump, and I would put mine on Hillary. If he won, I would disappear from this blog. If I won, he would go away forever.

#114 james on 11.07.16 at 9:40 pm

“Well, smoking idiot just said this:

“This confirms to me LANDSLIDE for TRUMP
You will all be shocked tomorrow”

So, my little emasculated turd cowering in Stephen Harper’s closet, why not put your money where your mouth is!?!

Trump wins, I stop posting here, never to return.

Hillary wins, you do likewise.

Ready to deal? My offer is extended until tomorrow before polls close.

Or are you just like those sniffling feminazi SJWs you hate, afraid to stand up for what you lie about believing in?

Opinions on that are hardening, you coward.

(Unlike your spine)”

Then I repeated….

#187 james on 11.08.16 at 8:34 am

“Well, good morning and happy election day, smoking idiot and all your fellow Trumpsuckers!

I hope you solved that technical glitch – some cowardly emasculated turd hacked your profile here and was running away from my modest challenge. (I knew that would be hard for you to solve, since you know nothing about coding computers, forex or writing, lol!)

So….once again, smokie, put up or shut up:

Trump wins, I go away and never post here again.

Clinton wins, you go away and never post here again.

Be a man, not a wussy.

Clock is ticking…….”

SM was way too much of an existential chicken to consider it. He totally “hedged” his bet like most cowards supporting Trump.

But I tried again, put my bet down for him in black and white one more time:

#17 james on 11.08.16 at 6:09 pm

“The polls are starting to close.

I will give smoking idiot a few more moments to man up:

Trump wins, and I will stop posting here forever.

Clinton wins, and smoking man stops posting here forever.

Deal or no deal?

Don’t wait for the translation from other Trumpsucker spinmeisters. It’s simple, smokie. Put your money where your mouth is. Stop fudging things like such an overschooled PR weasel. You are such a totally schooled, predictable little troll.

If no deal, it’s because you are a coward, a fraud, cowering in Stephen Harper’s closet.

Time’s almost up….”

His last cowardly response?

#81 Smoking Man on 11.08.16 at 8:48 pm

“I’m sitting her writing my gartho ass kissing letter for being wrong about tramp.

Then I look at the S&P getting crushed, USDCAD USDMXN going into orbit, I don’t have a bet at the moment.

And I’m not going to. Only way I’ll have bragging rights in the morning”

Sadly, the wavering fortitude of this now gone blog character in addressing things like his lack of conviction and inability to address addiction issues harmed him greatly in life. His oddly-admired-here ‘creativity’ was unoriginal, derivative and boring, filled with bigoted tropes of backwards thinking.

Lesson for all is perhaps to really put your neck on the line once in a while, take risks, accept responsibility. Don’t immerse yourselves in cigarettes, booze and gambling and pretend you can live a ‘real’ life by inventing boring, self-absorbed online characters. Get help when you need it, like he so obviously did.

If you read this and meet other people in your lives with these kinds of obvious problems, don’t applaud them. Get them help.

Peace to his family now.

#9 TurnerNation on 10.31.20 at 11:31 am

Case case cases. I don’t know anything about that. This is an investment weblog so follow the money.
I learned thus year that the best tool for public health is closing all small businesses. I feel so much better now.

https://www.mintpressnews.com/darpa-tech-diagnose-covid-19-implantable-biochip/271835/

“he POC (point-of-care) diagnostics market stands at about $18.8 billion globally, according to recent market trends, and is expected to grow by a third to $24.1 billion this year and projected to explode by 2024 to $46.7 billion. The main driver for these highly optimistic forecasts is the surge in healthcare technology demand brought on by the pandemic crisis, which is lining the pockets of big pharma and big tech, aided and abetted by the Defense Department’s various tentacles into the private sector, like DARPA or In-Q-Tel, where federal dollars are channeled into private enterprise through direct investment, stock purchasing, and grants, representing one of the clearest examples of how the military industrial complex works.

The “detection” of COVID-19 is among the most crowded segments of the POC diagnostics market and recent advances in the life sciences have made new technologies, such as mRNA-based vaccines and testing possible. The U.S. government, through the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), has been intimately involved in helping these technologies along, and in the case of mRNA, specifically, has made considerable investments in its development dating back to November 2019 in the case of one company developing an mRNA-based COVID-19 diagnostic tool.”

#10 Andrewski on 10.31.20 at 11:36 am

The explosion of young, financially illiterate online investors bares out your sage points Doug. Just look at the huge amount of money that has poured in to marijuana stocks, Bitcoin, etc.

#11 Classical Liberal Millennial on 10.31.20 at 11:44 am

We are a couple in early-mid 30s, both with DB pensions. What is a good ETF for us to sink some cash into for the next 20-25 years? I’m not risk-averse.

#12 Sail Away on 10.31.20 at 11:54 am

#8 James on 10.31.20 at 11:23 am

Re: Smoking Man

————-

Wow. Tone deaf bad taste doesn’t even start to describe your post.

Did you also write a gloating letter to Smokey’s widow and take a dump on his grave?

There’s a code. You’ve violated it.

#13 MF on 10.31.20 at 11:56 am

Ahh the Oakland A’s.

Growing up in the late 80’s and early 90’s as a huge Blue Jay fan in Toronto, the Oakland A’s of that era were aww inspiring and terrifying. They looked like huge supermen. They had incredible power with McGwire and Conseco, scary pitching with Dave Stewart, Eckersley on the mound, and they wore one of the best uniforms in baseball with this confident and elegant yellow/gold/green.

The team was so intimidating.

I remember one of the older kids at school had an A’s hat, and we all thought it was bada**.

The Jays were good, but when they played Oakland the confidence disappeared. I remember my dad telling me in the 1989 San Francisco Giants, who were also a great team, were scared of the A’s that year in the World Series. Probably true since they got easily swept in 4. Oakland didn’t even look like they were trying to be honest.

Anyhow, it’s interesting about Billy Beane’s A’s, and their inability to perform in the post season. That picture of Beane in the A’s uniform brings me back to childhood. Doug is correct about probabilities and noise in the markets as well. The election? Expect a clear winner (either way) on the 3rd and life to go on.

MF

#14 MF on 10.31.20 at 12:09 pm

Sail Away on 10.31.20 at 11:08 am

Prudent to bet against Canadian equities?

They are:

-undervalued versus most other indices.
-highly correlated with oil prices, which are artificially lower right now due to artificially depressed demand.

Do you expect the pandemic to last forever? For oil to be replaced as the main driver of the world economy? Probably not.

So my only guess is your statement should be more taken an emotional attack on some politician versus anything of logic. Yawn.

MF

#15 Waiting it out in Calgary on 10.31.20 at 1:24 pm

Thank you Doug for this solid advice.
Wish I was this enlightened 15 years when high cost mutual funds were sold to me.
Better late than never I guess!

#16 Stone on 10.31.20 at 1:34 pm

Strange that mutual funds are not banned. I guess they have strong lobby groups.

#17 BillyBob on 10.31.20 at 1:38 pm

#8 James on 10.31.20 at 11:23 am

“blah blah blah ugly rant against dead man etc”

==============================

But he was right about Trump, wasn’t he. You were wrong. You could have used a lot less words and effort looking up old posts to say that.

Smoking Man was a polarizing character, but never cruel.

You always come off as a hateful individual unworthy of carrying his shoes.

I miss his contributions greatly. Not a soul would say the same of yours. Sadly ironic that he’s the one gone.

#18 NSNG on 10.31.20 at 1:42 pm

It just clicked for me last night. What the politicians are really saying. The democrats have been wailing and crying about the now 6 to 3 ‘conservative’ supreme court.

They have gone so far as to threaten to pack the court by adding enough progressive judges to overcome this bias (though they got enough pushback that they are looking for other methods that serve the same purpose).

I was thinking about that and then it clicked. I thought the supreme court was to rule on subjects that were the best arguments from the constitution, the bill of rights, and all the other things that made all men be created equal in America.

Apparently, this is not the case. The SC is just another political organization that is ruled by the political biases of the leading party on the court. They have gone so far as admit it. They are not about law and the rights of mankind in the face of oppressors. It’s all about politics there too. That’s pretty sad.

#19 Marc Roger on 10.31.20 at 1:47 pm

Thanks, Doug.
Happy Halloween.

#20 Stan Brooks on 10.31.20 at 2:02 pm

Just watched the documentary ‘Inside job’ again.

Eye opening for the corruption in the financial industry/failure of regulators etc.

of course it does not apply to us/we are different/more prudent,…. etc BS.

Bhahahahahahahahhahahaha

Cheers, stupid.

#21 EnnDeePea on 10.31.20 at 2:04 pm

#8 James on 10.31.20 at 11:23 am

Sadly, the wavering fortitude of this now gone blog character in addressing things like his lack of conviction and inability to address addiction issues harmed him greatly in life. His oddly-admired-here ‘creativity’ was unoriginal, derivative and boring, filled with bigoted tropes of backwards thinking.
———–
10 years of smoking man on this blog in a nutshell.

#22 Dave on 10.31.20 at 2:08 pm

Real estate is booming again….no jobs…no travel….lock down.

Whats wrong with going into a recession…its a natural cycle. Better then the crap show we have now.

Global elite have been concerned of human population growth….needs to be trimmed down. The growth can’t be sustained. Plenty up the economy and deal with matters best you can

#23 TurnerNation on 10.31.20 at 2:17 pm

10th? Never forget this is what we are fighting for.
“There’s no replacement for displacement”.
Roller rockers, timing gears, lumpy idle.
Teach the Mills.
You new ring tone:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKkE1Cr8Lcw
Dodge Charger 426 Hemi Brutal Sound

…..
But what are the celebs selling us? Watch Top Gear’s James May tell us why he’s selling his old Ferrari.
He tells us it was meant to be enjoyed back then; that you cannot enjoy it the same way now.
Oh really. I wasn’t buying it. Smell test and all.
Wait for it…the kicker appears. He say the three cars in his home garage are all Electric. Bam there it is. He’s trying to re-educate our incorrect ways and erase history. He even says not to buy his car.

New System alert. Gas cars to be banned, bet on it. No more $1000 cars off Craigslist. Only the rich will get these 50-100k Electric cars and travel. #stayhome right?
Ontario killed off all electric car subsidies last year. Why?
Never forget they are playing the LONG Game. Incrementalism.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvpNY5Sv3l4
Yup, you’ve read that correctly, James has put his Ferrari up for sale. Listen as he explains why he has decided to let it go…

Ben FTI PTP
1 month ago (edited)
James: “I’m selling my car, here are the details” then proceeds to tell us why we shouldn’t buy it

#24 Joseph R. on 10.31.20 at 2:38 pm

#18 NSNG on 10.31.20 at 1:42 pm

Apparently, this is not the case. The SC is just another political organization that is ruled by the political biases of the leading party on the court. They have gone so far as admit it. They are not about law and the rights of mankind in the face of oppressors. It’s all about politics there too. That’s pretty sad.

———————————————————–

You have perfectly summed up Mitch McConnell’s attacks on the US Court system.

#25 Dogman01 on 10.31.20 at 2:47 pm

#3 SeeB on 10.29.20 at 3:27 pm

Well isn’t this a bit weird:

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/otoole-calls-for-better-conditions-for-workers-slams-outsourcing-to-china-in-speech

A Conservative leader defending Unions, slamming the business elite for the wholesale gutting of our industrial capacity.

He gets it, we are becoming a nation of Uber Drivers. (with the widespread poverty and precarity that entails)

Now the question is; can he be trusted or is this more Conservative sophism, like Trickle Down and “Free Trade” will somehow magically benefit the working masses of our country etc. .

Now I think not as we are approaching an economic crisis as we produce nothing and we are approaching a geo-political crises where we have provided a Hostile Power with our means of production and created dependency on them.

“when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”

——————————————————————————————————————-

It is unfortunate but I see no economic plan or model and therefore no credibility for the Left:

“it’s not enough to oppose a broken system. A coherent alternative has to be proposed. For Labour, the Democrats and the wider left, the central task should be to develop an economic Apollo programme, a conscious attempt to design a new system, tailored to the demands of the 21st century.” – George Monbiot

Maybe some on Left and Right can forget about the minor things and focus on the problem of mass prosperity. What I have learned is that the problems of the prosperous are much more desirable then the problems of the impoverished.

#26 Steerage on 10.31.20 at 2:52 pm

#8 James on 10.31.20 at 11:23 am
#114 fishman

“In 2016 the only guy on here that was positive the Trumpster would win was the Smoking Man. All the rest of us Trump fan boys hedged our bets.”
——

Nope, completely wrong, fishman. I challenged my old rival the Emasculated Smoking Turd to put his money where his mouth was. Look it up. I told him to place a hard bet on Trump, and I would put mine on Hillary. If he won, I would disappear from this blog. If I won, he would go away forever.


A clear victim of SM derangement syndrome….. geez dude….he smoked you… why didn’t you go away…

#27 Diamond Dog on 10.31.20 at 2:54 pm

#8 James on 10.31.20 at 11:23 am

If I may opine, I think you are overthinking it somewhat. Does a writer become the villain or hero of his own book? Of course not. SM decided to paint his canvass here.

Some would argue that its a fruitless waste of time. Others would argue that he fell short of what he was trying to accomplish. What one cannot dispute, was that SM was a character and that there was some good in the man behind it, warts and all. If you didn’t catch on to this, you weren’t paying attention.

#28 Stan Brooks on 10.31.20 at 3:00 pm

#22 Dave on 10.31.20 at 2:08 pm
Real estate is booming again….no jobs…no travel….lock down

Only in the land of the ultra-stupid and brain-frozen idiots.

It ain’t booming in Europe. So keep you GMO crap to yourself folks, please. It it is not needed here.

Cheers,

#29 Dolce Vita on 10.31.20 at 3:01 pm

#8 James

Better to have lived, than not lived at all.

Better damned for what you are, than what you are not.

…and, running around all day long worried about EVERYTHING none of which you can control (but think you can) does not make you better, more neurotic for sure, but not better.

For every SM [RIP] there is a Jim “Fixx” [RIP].

————————-

Agree on you Sample Size argument AND your conclusion overall BUT to be fair there is another branch of Statistics with its own theorem known as:

Bayesianism

that attempt to accommodate among other things for Jane Austen’s:

Pride and Prejudice (or bias)

Did she listen?

Naw. Like most. She did well. He did too, made it into the nonconformists cemetery [RIP].

———————-

DAMN the VIRUS, statistical outliers and heteroscedasticity and those that believe they can control them.

#30 FreeBird on 10.31.20 at 3:05 pm

“… much the same with US equity mutual funds…”
————

Im very curious about longterm net returns for a popular US based financial system/plan pushing 100% equity mostly US mutual fund portfolios w/higher fees for all ages. It has millions of devoted followers incl Cdn. I won’t name the plan because this about mutual fund fees/diversity and I’m sure Garth and team know about what I’m referring to.

#31 mike from mtl on 10.31.20 at 3:09 pm

#16 Stone on 10.31.20 at 1:34 pm
Strange that mutual funds are not banned. I guess they have strong lobby groups.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

In theory, there should be nothing wrong with them – just the vast majority are (poorly) actively managed, high fees, “advisor” kickbacks, can have obscured ‘front’ and ‘back’ loads, even restrictions to keep you locked in.

In other ways can be fantastic, the fact they’re capable of fractional units are perfect for small contributions or small accounts; some are zero transaction fee so extra bonus.

I wish I could be able to select which mutuals I am forced to ‘invest’ in by my employer’s group RSP – stuck with choices of crap and crap. Simply buy Vanguard 500 admiral and be so far ahead.

#32 Ed on 10.31.20 at 3:09 pm

I read posts, not poster names but that one doorknob needs a manners reminder Alberta style.

Anyway the race is getting tighter, hopefully the result can be determined on the 3rd.

I’d like KXL to get built so hopefully Trump wins not Kamela.

#33 Doug Rowat on 10.31.20 at 3:17 pm

#16 Stone on 10.31.20 at 1:34 pm

Strange that mutual funds are not banned. I guess they have strong lobby groups.

—-

The strongest.

I deliberately work at an independent firm that doesn’t issue them. Advisors at bank-owned firms aren’t so lucky. Navigating the conflict-of-interest quagmire must be exhausting.

—Doug

#34 Dogman01 on 10.31.20 at 3:20 pm

#11 Classical Liberal Millennial on 10.31.20 at 11:44 am

Look at HBAL.

#35 Victor V on 10.31.20 at 3:24 pm

#17 BillyBob on 10.31.20 at 1:38 pm

But he was right about Trump, wasn’t he. You were wrong. You could have used a lot less words and effort looking up old posts to say that.

Smoking Man was a polarizing character, but never cruel.

You always come off as a hateful individual unworthy of carrying his shoes.

I miss his contributions greatly. Not a soul would say the same of yours. Sadly ironic that he’s the one gone.

====
====

The light that burns twice as bright burns half as long…

#36 Sara on 10.31.20 at 3:29 pm

Speaking of “Smoking Man”, let his situation with respect to health insurance be a lesson to Canadians planning a move or travelling to the USA. Don’t do it unless you have travel/health insurance that covers you there. As an aside, I notice that the “go fund me” fundraiser Jim’s son set up to cover his medical bills is nowhere near its $300,000 goal.

#37 LP on 10.31.20 at 3:34 pm

#12 Sail Away on 10.31.20 at 11:54 am

I’m with you Mr Sail. I hope James goes away now and never comes back.

F73ON

#38 LP on 10.31.20 at 3:37 pm

#13 MF on 10.31.20 at 11:56 am

Though he may have looked “elegant” in his uniform, what I remember about Dennis Eckersley was an occasion on the mound against the Jays when it was revealed that he was cheating. When challenged by the ump he tried to drop an emery board to the ground without being seen. Didn’t work

#39 Diamond Dog on 10.31.20 at 3:39 pm

#17 BillyBob on 10.31.20 at 1:38 pm

Smoking Man was a polarizing character, but never cruel. – BB

Right you are. I tried to confront SM a few times early on because he was way over the top (racist, misogynistic, it was bad) but he wouldn’t engage. I knew then that this dude marched to the beat of a different drum and that the character he developed was not the man behind it. When the character becomes as large as life (or larger), one can say definitively that the writer was successful in his task.

The racial tropes and the braggadocio, it’s like trying to put down Archie Bunker without catching onto the fact that AB is a fictional character (chuckles). Right? Then you start to figure it out. If its all an act or a front, what is the writer trying to really say? You build a character, platform or brand, now what do you do with it? Sometimes you have to wait for it.

Excesses of iniquities are bad? Trump will get elected? Yes, of course! Luck sometimes trumps brains and we are born into it? (getting a little deeper here, but perhaps) Maybe not the original intention of creation, but characters evolve over time and sooner or later, the creator has to give it some meaning when the shoe fits. It’s like fitting pieces in a puzzle. Some you will never use, other are hallmark. I can borrow from the work of others:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sq56mjiwFzg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvWoAkAoW9A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDdYu6HT1xk

Or I can do it myself.

#40 Doug Rowat on 10.31.20 at 3:49 pm

#31 mike from mtl on 10.31.20 at 3:09 pm
#16 Stone on 10.31.20 at 1:34 pm
Strange that mutual funds are not banned. I guess they have strong lobby groups.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

In theory, there should be nothing wrong with them – just the vast majority are (poorly) actively managed, high fees, “advisor” kickbacks, can have obscured ‘front’ and ‘back’ loads, even restrictions to keep you locked in.

—-

The argument from mutual fund companies is that the back-end loads are designed to keep retail investors invested during volatile markets.

It’s a thin argument that overlooks the investor’s loss of liquidity. Of course, the back-end load also helps ensure that the mutual fund manager gets paid.

The same mutual fund manager, btw, who will never, ever speak with the investor.

—Doug

#41 Axehead on 10.31.20 at 3:50 pm

Mr. Doug, that was smart advice. Hope T2 reads this blog. One word for Mutuals: MER. One word for ETFs: elegant.

#42 Dolce Vita on 10.31.20 at 3:52 pm

Well, as of 2015 h CET, UK going into lockdown as well (like 15 million of them in that state already wasn’t enough – link is LIVE it may not hold for long):

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-54762974

Well that makes 3 of the 4 G7 in Europe in lockdown.

That just leaves 1:

Italia.

With the DAMN VIRUS numbers she just posted today, I wonder how long she can resist lockdown:

New Cases 31758
Deaths 297
ICU 1843
Self Isolation 24531

Nearly 300,000 new cases and +3,000 deaths yesterday in Europe.

This is not going well people.

——————————————–

And in the HERE WE GO AGAIN department, 1700 h CET:

“An Orthodox priest shot dead in Lyon, an arrest”

Outside his church. Being investigated as a terrorist act per Le Figaro and Paris Match. The attacker was armed with a shotgun, reports Le Parisien and shot the priest twice.

A person was arrested this evening.

Latest by Le Figaro:

https://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/en-direct-lyon-un-pretre-orthodoxe-blesse-par-balles-l-auteur-en-fuite-20201031

#43 espressobob on 10.31.20 at 3:54 pm

I know a few investors that loose it every time there is some uncertainty going on. They go into sell mode in a state of fear. Oh well….

I’ve stuck by the basics and maintain core positions no matter what happens. Always load up when corrections look like the end of the world and take profit on the upside when the sky seems to be the limit.

Easy to do with ETFs and a spreadsheet and quite profitable over time.

Mutual funds are laughable and run by incompetent self professed experts who can’t even outperform an amateur tracking the major indices. Sad.

#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.31.20 at 3:54 pm

#36 Sara on 10.31.20 at 3:29 pm
Speaking of “Smoking Man”, let his situation with respect to health insurance be a lesson to Canadians planning a move or travelling to the USA. Don’t do it unless you have travel/health insurance that covers you there. As an aside, I notice that the “go fund me” fundraiser Jim’s son set up to cover his medical bills is nowhere near its $300,000 goal.
—————
Good advise.
Even if you have extra insurance, you may not be covered.
Read the small print. Many pre-existing conditions are not covered.
Even if Biden wins, I’m finished with the States. Not worth the hassle.
Seen most of the places that I wanted to see.
So I’m good.

#45 Love_The_Cottage on 10.31.20 at 4:04 pm

#31 mike from mtl on 10.31.20 at 3:09 pm
I wish I could be able to select which mutuals I am forced to ‘invest’ in by my employer’s group RSP – stuck with choices of crap and crap. Simply buy Vanguard 500 admiral and be so far ahead.
________
You could try educating whoever is in charge of the choice at your company, especially if you’re going to be there for a while.

#46 Ustabe on 10.31.20 at 4:08 pm

Smoking Man was a polarizing character, but never cruel.

You are so wrong on that statement that even if your last name was Wrong and you were the Mayor of a town called Wrongville this would stand as the most wrong one made.

Years ago one of my first posts on here was a rebut of SM’s vicious attack on a female poster. His post to her was far, far beyond an Internet persona. It was designed to hurt, was full of hate and literally had no bearing on what the woman had to say.

It is interesting to note that one of my comments to him was that he was no Hunter Thompson. From that point on his entire online persona here changed. He started cribbing Hunter’s thoughts on matter, he started attempting to write like he did, he also totally ignored me from that point on (and I him.)

mean, petty little drunk with significant issues…yet many here glorify him. Funny the folks some pick to be their heroes: Smoking Man, Trump, Kenny…etc.

#47 T-Rev on 10.31.20 at 4:49 pm

To paraphrase the Beane and Burton Malkiel, “it’s a effing random walk down Wall Street”.

But got bless the active managers, they make the market relatively efficient for the rest of us.

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.20 at 4:51 pm

With the potential volatility of the next few weeks in the markets I may wait a few weeks before dumping another quarterly installment in the old RRSP.

#49 FreeBird on 10.31.20 at 4:53 pm

#2 Dharma Bum on 10.31.20 at 10:49 am
Hahahah – Mr. Bean!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wk2oRMHOyjE
———————-
Brilliant comedian and amazing sports car collector. Best is he actually drives them and not kept as just status symbols. His views on free speech esp for comedians:

https://youtu.be/BiqDZlAZygU

#50 James on 10.31.20 at 5:00 pm

#46 Ustabe

“It is interesting to note that one of my comments to him was that he was no Hunter Thompson. From that point on his entire online persona here changed. He started cribbing Hunter’s thoughts on matter, he started attempting to write like he did, he also totally ignored me from that point on (and I him.)

mean, petty little drunk with significant issues…yet many here glorify him. Funny the folks some pick to be their heroes: Smoking Man, Trump, Kenny…etc.”

Yes, I remember that!

He was cluelessly ignorant about the legacy of writers like Hunter Thompson, so uneducated, but then tried to imitate and copy them, claim some allegiance to them, when he was told about them. How someone could be so obviously unoriginal yet still bigoted in truly hateful ways was just so shallow, so obvious to me. Skipped by most of his remarks here, but sad to see so many low IQ idolaters for him in the comments section here.

#51 mark on 10.31.20 at 5:00 pm

Sail Away on 10.31.20 at 11:54 am
#8 James on 10.31.20 at 11:23 am

Re: Smoking Man

————-

Wow. Tone deaf bad taste doesn’t even start to describe your post.

Did you also write a gloating letter to Smokey’s widow and take a dump on his grave?

There’s a code. You’ve violated it.

********************************************

Sail Away, just like your name, sail away no one misses you really!

#52 No Gratis Mid-day meal on 10.31.20 at 5:11 pm

I went long on Baseball cards 1990-2020
As a musician once said: “my album is a million seller”
Drum roll:
“I’ve got a million in my cellar”.
Works better when you say it!

#53 Ronaldo on 10.31.20 at 5:13 pm

#16 Stone on 10.31.20 at 1:34 pm
Strange that mutual funds are not banned. I guess they have strong lobby groups.
——————————————————————
Strange that people keep knocking mutual funds when they are for many people very suitable. My own balanced fund with an MER of .88 (includes advsor commission) is up 6.7% YTD. Has been in the 1st quartile for 7 of last 10 years. Has averaged 7.4% net of fees over past 10 years. It was down 16.5% at the low on March 23rd. Has regained 26.6% from that point. Just buy and fogetaboutit. Let the managers of the fund do the rebalancing. That’s what they are paid for. Gives you more time to hike, ski, play tennis and many other things without having to be concerned with the day to day and month to month gyrations.

#54 Ronaldo on 10.31.20 at 5:21 pm

#21 EnnDeePea on 10.31.20 at 2:04 pm
#8 James on 10.31.20 at 11:23 am

Sadly, the wavering fortitude of this now gone blog character in addressing things like his lack of conviction and inability to address addiction issues harmed him greatly in life. His oddly-admired-here ‘creativity’ was unoriginal, derivative and boring, filled with bigoted tropes of backwards thinking.
———–
10 years of smoking man on this blog in a nutshell.
—————————————————————-
Smoking Man was a very likeable person unlike some others on this blog. He was a very street smart individual and I looked forward to his posts. He said it like it was. RIP Smoky.

#55 Penny Henny on 10.31.20 at 5:22 pm

I’ve always admired Bobby Orr. Anytime I saw him on TV I would say what a nice guy, my wife feels exactly as I do. Being 55 years old I don’t remember seeing him play too much but you would have to have you head in the sand to not know who he was.
Overall I would describe him as a down to earth all around nice guy and a great Canadian. Someone who I would love to have a beer with.
Anywho, I read that he took out a full page ad in a New Hampshire newspaper to express his support for the Orange guy. Fair enough, it’s his money so his choice.
I then make my way over to the CBC website to see what the consensus view is of his actions.
What I saw just blew me away! The most ‘liked’ comments were along the lines of “I used to adore Bobby Orr but now I hate him”.
I then read a columnist in the Toronto Star go on a rant saying
“Let’s be clear. If you support a politician who abuses women, who cheats on his taxes, who accuses his African-American predecessor of not being an American, who dismisses the expert advice of scientists in the face of a global pandemic that has killed more than 229,000 Americans, who humiliates military heroes, who despises people from “shithole” countries and supports those who espouse Nazi-like ideals, you also embrace those ideals yourself.”

I then think to myself WOW!
If this is how people react just because you support one candidate over the other then I am so not surprised if people lied to pollsters and told them ‘I’m voting Biden’.

This is why Orange guy is a shoo in.

PS. Bobby Orr is not going to be getting many more endorsement gigs.

#56 No Gratis Mid-day meal on 10.31.20 at 5:26 pm

#23 TurnerNation
10th? Never forget this is what we are fighting for.
“There’s no replacement for displacement”.
Roller rockers, timing gears, lumpy idle.
————————————————-
And hanging dice..
Wouldn’t suit an e-car thinks I.

#57 Ronaldo on 10.31.20 at 5:36 pm

#43 ExpressoBob

Mutual funds are laughable and run by incompetent self professed experts who can’t even outperform an amateur tracking the major indices. Sad.
——————————————————————
Totally false statement. Not all mutual fund companies are created equal. I will put up my portfolio against any other DIY etf investor. I would agree than there are some mutual fund companies which I will not name that I would not touch with a 20 foot pole.

#58 No Gratis Mid-day meal on 10.31.20 at 5:43 pm

Re Smoking Man:
There are good reasons not to speak ill of the dead:
They cannot defend or explain themselves.
As death is assured for all of us, we (you), will soon be as them.

#59 MF on 10.31.20 at 5:46 pm

38 LP on 10.31.20 at 3:37 pm

Wow I never heard about that story. But Alomar’s home run in game 4 of the 1992 ALCS (the end of Oakland’s reign) against Eckersley is also a fond memory :)

In 1989 though, he was the dangerous closer with a gnarly moustache no one could touch. That gold/yellow brimmed hat, the yellow/green stirrup socks, the submarine style pitching. Pretty awesome.

Can baseball bring back the stirrup socks please? Whose dumb idea was it to get rid of them?

MF

#60 espressobob on 10.31.20 at 5:48 pm

#48 crowdedelavatorfartz

Feeding your RRSP is for tax reduction purposes for those in a higher bracket. Tax shifting has merit also.

A contribution doesn’t necessarily mean it has to be invested in equity right away. For the long haul, anytime is a good time to enter the market. Is this going anywhere?

#61 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 10.31.20 at 5:59 pm

“Smoking Man was a polarizing character, but never cruel. […] Right you are. I tried to confront SM a few times early on because he was way over the top (racist, misogynistic, it was bad) “

Speaking as a generally oblivious, entitled white male, the character sounds like an arsehole. Any comparisons to Norman Lear’s Archie Bunker character are so far misguided as to be laughable — Lear’s genius was to paint Bunker as an obvious/oblivious anachronism, in a milieu of other, more sympathetic characters… Trying the same jokes 45 years later without the twist or any other characters is copropaleontology.

#62 jess on 10.31.20 at 6:29 pm

…never pay more for a worse result”

“joint investigation by ABC’s 4Corners program and the Sydney Morning Herald revealed allegations of damning financial and claims mismanagement, with CEO John Nagle announcing –
– alleged mishandling of icare’s workers’ compensation scheme that saw injured workers go without proper care.
– icare is paying hundreds of millions of dollars to medical practitioners for services that are unnecessary or cost more than they should,
– a caesarean anaesthetic for a man.Aug 17, 2020
– a claim was made twice for the removal of the same tumour. Other inappropriate expenses included X-rays, ultrasounds, CT scans and MRIs conducted on the same body part on the same day.
– one injured worker who had 78 MRIs valued at $57,000 over two months.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/systemic-failures-costing-icare-billions-of-dollars-20200816-p55m6h.html

…” spin and slick marketing culture that buries bad news, crushes whistleblowers and tolerates compliance breaches such as undeclared trips paid for by vendors to Las Vegas, Nevada, and Dallas, Texas, and contracts awarded without tenders to mates and family…. it had underpaid 52,000 workers up to $80 million.Against this backdrop senior executives were the highest paid in any government body in NSW, with the top seven receiving an average $660,000, as well as bonuses.

gravy train for insurance and consultants —unjust wrong and immoral
Workers compensation under fire: shoddy and “unethical practices” exposed | Four Corners
•Jul 27, 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxIvKogrE2Q
Icare whistleblower speaks out on culture of corruption at workers’ compensation insurance agency
By Adele Ferguson and Chris Gillett
https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/au/news/breaking-news/whats-the-verdict-on-the-icare-scandal-229769.aspx
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-27/four-corners-workers-compensation-investigation/12477902
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/scandal-ridden-icare-faces-blowtorch-of-nsw-auditor-general-20200816-p55m5e

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.31.20 at 6:51 pm

Penny Henny
Better front load your posts.
I’m with CEF on the bet.
Does not happen too often.

#64 HUNGRY BEAR on 10.31.20 at 7:09 pm

FRANCE/GERMANY/IRELAND/WINNIPEG LOL

…all on LOCKDOWN!!!

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/johnson-extends-pay-support-gives-202321518.html

This has ONLY begun.

#65 Drinking on 10.31.20 at 7:11 pm

Smoking Man is smiling; probably laughing at the pathetics who are mocking him! Even in his grave he is still managing to get a reaction of posters that have no respect for others then themselves! You truly are disturbed! I feel for you, “NOT”! Careful, Karma is a B*tch!

Good Job Smokie; R.I.P!

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.20 at 7:19 pm

@#60 Espressobob
” For the long haul, anytime is a good time to enter the market. Is this going anywhere?”

+++

Its definitely long term. I’m not pulling the pin for a while yet.
Balanced and diversified.
I just think the next few weeks will be full of downturn chaos.

#67 Dr V on 10.31.20 at 7:19 pm

53 Ronaldo – agreed on the MFs. Start with the basic indexes, then add some balanced income fund(s) and a little special equity. Watch the fees as they will be higher for the more specialized funds. Make sure the fund is strongly mandated and aligns with your investment objectives.

While you can do it yourself, I suggest an advisor once you have a certain dollar figure, are within 10 years of retirement, or have a large non-registered account.

A weakness I see is the liquidity as the units are redeemed with cash which the fund must raise or have on hand. The other is the imbedded fee which cannot be tax deducted. That fee should be easy enough to track and document, so we should lobby to allow a deduction for it.

Regarding SM, I scrolled. I didn’t get him.

#68 espressobob on 10.31.20 at 7:26 pm

#57 Ronaldo

My portfolio tracks a global all cap by market cap. I’m the benchmark 95% of mutual fund managers will underperform in the short term give or take. The balance of outperformers will do so consitantaly over long periods of time? Doubtful but possible.

The real problem with mutual funds is knowing in advance which of those will do so?

I’m not one for a crapshoot.

#69 Uncle Charlie on 10.31.20 at 7:26 pm

#57 Ronaldo

Just out of curiosity, which company are you using for your Mutual Funds? I’ve never seen any with fees of less than 2%. I used to own some years ago in an RRSP but had to sell them when I fell on some hard times. They weren’t producing results anyway. I think they were Sun Life or something like that.

I think the Tangerine index funds are considered mutual funds also, even though they’re really just index funds. They have an MER of 1.07, which is still pretty high. I don’t think they’ve performed very well post COVID though.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.20 at 7:57 pm

@#63 Ponzie’s Political Prediction

“I’m with CEF on the bet.
Does not happen too often.”

++++
Ladies and Gentlemen…. a “Blue Moon” ( the second full moon in a calander month) is rare.
A Blue Moon on Oct 31st hasnt happened since 1944.
And now….
Rareare than a flawless, blue diamond…… Ponzie agrees with CrowdieFartz……

Civilization, as we know it, has shifted to a whole new plane of existence…..

Fartpocalypse2020

#71 westcdn on 10.31.20 at 8:01 pm

I like to think I have great ideals but they are who have better. Yet I stand. Luck is funny and hope it lands on my doorstep.

I don’t like fires into my face but I will carry on as taught to by my parents.

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.20 at 8:06 pm

@#70 Smarting Alec
“Neither of you have made any worthwhile contributions to the comment section, so nobody on this blog would miss you.”
++++

Do detect a bit of animosity in that statement?

I do believe my only contribution is that…… I have lowered the bar for any and all to “take the jump” and comment.

If someone named CrowdedElevatorFartz is willing to stand up and be “heard”……… I might suggest even an unimaginative pseudonym named SmartAlec might feel they’re brave enough to toss a comment into the blog inferno.
But I could be wrong……
We’ll see.

#73 broader mind on 10.31.20 at 8:23 pm

Hey Doug , your probability of a profit chart starts to go south the moment you add inflation to the picture. Put in terms against the value of a home in Toronto and likely stay profitless forever. Such is the new free money policy. Existing wealth is made worthless.

#74 Diamond Dog on 10.31.20 at 8:26 pm

#61 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 10.31.20 at 5:59 pm

Oh, he was much worse than Archie Bunker and not as funny but the point is, SM was a fictional character! No one, I repeat, NO ONE could spell as bad as that. I actually took him seriously at first and felt dumb for it later, because SM was fiction. And to read this from James, I won’t be the only one feeling foolish later unless I’m simply too dense to catch on.

“How someone could be so obviously unoriginal yet still bigoted in truly hateful ways was just so shallow, so obvious to me. Skipped by most of his remarks here, but sad to see so many low IQ idolaters for him in the comments section here.”

#75 espressobob on 10.31.20 at 8:30 pm

Mutual funds are a dinosaur from way back. Costly, ineffectual, and tax nightmare in a non registered account. Most of Us don’t have the time to study investing along with tax laws etc. Not a fun subject for study.

This is why I suggest to most, professional management with a fee based advisor might prove advantageous for most.

No brainer. There are better things to learn.

#76 tbone on 10.31.20 at 8:34 pm

I will have to agree with Ronaldo with respect to mutual funds. I have two favourite companies .
One of them consistently beats the benchmark year after year so its not luck. And the MER is reasonable. I keep a portion of my portfolio in them along with blue chip stocks and etf`s .

#77 Dr V on 10.31.20 at 8:36 pm

Uncle C

“I think the Tangerine index funds are considered mutual funds also, even though they’re really just index funds”

You can have index mutual funds. CIBC has had them for years and many (most?) other providers have them
now.

Check fundlibrary.com. Browse the fund database, choose “mutual” then “canadian equity” and even a provider if you like. By clicking on the fund you can also find the fees including the trailer paid to your advisor.
RBC cdn index is 0.66%. You can also search ETFs.

https://www.fundlibrary.com/MutualFunds/Search

#78 Stan Brooks on 10.31.20 at 8:54 pm

#33 Doug Rowat on 10.31.20 at 3:17 pm

The strongest.

I deliberately work at an independent firm that doesn’t issue them. Advisors at bank-owned firms aren’t so lucky. Navigating the conflict-of-interest quagmire must be exhausting.

Avoiding conflict of interest? I smell sarcasm.

Some of them are mostly selling mutual funds from the same or affiliated financial institutions, they are basically sales agents for that institution on salary or commission paid by the institution. Some fund manager assembled a fund that he/she manages and that is sold to you at 2-3 % yearly ‘management’ fee. Most proceeds going to the institution profits.

Hard to have fiduciary duty to you (as they are employed and commissioned by the institution), it is similar as a sellers real estate agent when you are the buyer. Do you trust him/her? They (the ‘advisors’) are I think only responsible to officially outline the risks for the different type of investments but can they practically represent your best interest and give you an independent advice?

Some gap not fully covered by ‘regulators’/the same who allowed the credit orgy and never said a word about the lenders bailout in 2009 except to praise their ‘prudence’ and making sure the gamblers assess are covered by the taxpayers/mortgage ‘insurance’.

Disclaimer here: While the big investment firms in US were selling toxic CDOs to their clients they were officially betting against/shorting it without the obligation for disclosing that to the clients just before the big financial crisis of 2007-2008, I am sure we are different and the mortgages issued by the lenders here but ensured by the taxpayer are always of the highest quality even for the most subprime borrowers as we are different, we did not have the crisis, are most prudent etc. In fact there are no subprime borrowers by definition here, even those with zero or 5 % down-payments at the time.

So now the big boys at the central banks have to step in and keep interest rates at zero as well as print unlimited amount of ‘money’ for like forever, in order to keep the whole system afloat killing savers and retirees in the process while demanding confidence and ‘warning’ against alarmism and while ‘carefully watching and monitoring the markets’ in order to ensure inflation hits 2,3,4 % (read double that), all that information is in the open out there.

If the economy is strong let’s stop the money printing to at least limit it in time and raise the rates back to 4,5, 8 % to match the real increase in the cost of living.

BTW capital markets and mortgage lending are the top performers amongst lending and financial institutions.

Cheers,

#79 Faron on 10.31.20 at 8:59 pm

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.20 at 7:19 pm

@#60 Espressobob
” For the long haul, anytime is a good time to enter the market. Is this going anywhere?”

+++

Its definitely long term. I’m not pulling the pin for a while yet.
Balanced and diversified.
I just think the next few weeks will be full of downturn chaos.

I think the point is that you could dump the dollars in your RRSP to get the funds off your taxable income now and keep as cash or buy a cash-like etf (HSAV or CMR) until you want to join the market. But, by waiting you could miss a big bounce if either candidate sweeps cleanly. Trump may deliver the bigger bounce because stimulus would follow quicker simply owing to a non-transition of power.

Good luck

#80 Faron on 10.31.20 at 9:04 pm

#70 Smart Alec on 10.31.20 at 7:49 pm

#61 Penny Henny on 10.30.20 at 7:08 pm
#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.30.20 at 5:50 pm

Alec Trebek, you are not one to talk. CEF can be hilarious, Penny more subtly so. They both have uniqie points of view and world experience. You have expressed none nor has your doppelganger Idiocy. Just pointless, humourless, hard trolling. Get a life.

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.31.20 at 9:05 pm

#67 Dr. V.
Regarding SM. I scrolled. I didn’t get him.
—————-
I’m not sure if you’ve read Under the Volcano by Malcolm Lowry.
Brilliant.
We reviewed it in our book club.
Most did not get it.

#82 NoName on 10.31.20 at 9:36 pm

Tonight, Halloween, Blue Moon and Micro Moon funny thing more kids came this year than last. I was dispencing candies in safety west with deluxe garbage picker. Kids found quite funny.

Now that iam on Halloween topic, at this point is only university of virginia and arizona are only one left that are steel.

Sruding konchnes and paranormal. cant wait until they find out about quantum mechanics.

Vampire desise is actualy real, aparently low himoglobin makes gums to recide and make your teeth like you have fangs.

Aparently spanish inquisition liked to burned peole with prophirija, guess they looked bit to pale and tooth were to pointy for their taste.

Apparently haviy rabies make you beehave like vampir.

Boo Hoo

#83 millmech on 10.31.20 at 9:42 pm

#64 HUNGRY BEAR
Nope, no real lockdown, those of privilege get a pass all the time, just like all the our “leaders” leading by example, when this happens it is no wonder people say forget it and do not bother following government mandated protocol. One rule for me another for thee. Machine technicians visiting at our facility also do not self isolate.
I went in for a Covid test because of contact tracing and after my test I was told to go back to work by the health nurse as I had no symptoms. My work disagreed and was told by the Coastal Health that 10-14 days are just “guidelines”. I tested negative and my work paid me to stay home until my results came back. Just phone Coastal Health and try to pin them down on their own “protocols”.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hezRtUD5YJQ

#84 Sail Away on 10.31.20 at 9:57 pm

#81 Faron on 10.31.20 at 9:04 pm
#70 Smart Alec on 10.31.20 at 7:49 pm

#61 Penny Henny on 10.30.20 at 7:08 pm
#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.30.20 at 5:50 pm

Alec Trebek, you are not one to talk. CEF can be hilarious, Penny more subtly so. They both have uniqie points of view and world experience. You have expressed none nor has your doppelganger Idiocy. Just pointless, humourless, hard trolling. Get a life.

————–

Wow! And I agree with Faron!

Blue moon indeed. More like an alternate universe. Is this the Twilight Zone?

#85 broader mind on 10.31.20 at 10:10 pm

#79 Stan Brooks. I believe we are sailing in the same sailboat. My wealth seemed great a few years ago, now not so much. Screwed dinosaur saver.

#86 Doug Rowat on 10.31.20 at 10:12 pm

#74 broader mind on 10.31.20 at 8:23 pm

Hey Doug , your probability of a profit chart starts to go south the moment you add inflation to the picture.

—-

The dividend yield of the S&P 500 is about equal to the inflation rate, and I excluded dividends in the probability table. But, more importantly, the long-term dividend % increase for the S&P 500 is almost 6% annually. In other words, US equity investors are more than keeping pace with inflation.

—Doug

#87 Freedom First on 10.31.20 at 10:29 pm

It is difficult times we are living in, but I still try to live by the “Golden Rule”. However, that does not mean I am weak, in any way!

Freedom First

P.S.- Also, I do believe Smoking Man sent a message from above, for today: “DELETED”

#88 Ronaldo on 10.31.20 at 10:58 pm

#78 Dr V

Thanks for the link. Here is one that has been a favorite for many years. https://www.fundlibrary.com/MutualFunds/Detail/phillips-hager-north-balanced-fund-series-d/1473

No front end load, no back end load, no charge to switch between funds. Highly recommend for beginners. Only require $500 to start. Your assigned representative is available anytime by phone or in person to discuss any concerns, all included in the mer.

#89 Charles Bright on 11.01.20 at 1:28 am

DELETED

#90 fishman on 11.01.20 at 2:05 am

Spooky Halloween. Ranting derision of the dead on the one nite a year when the ghosts & goblins rule. If I ever meet this James guy in person the hair on the back of my neck will be coming to attention. No good angels over this guy .

#91 Prince Polo on 11.01.20 at 7:11 am

My favourite scene from Moneyball:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5KQDjrVHc8

#92 Bezengy on 11.01.20 at 7:22 am

Stepped off the ice after officiating a few games yesterday. My fellow ref tells me he’s deferred his mortgage payments. Why? Could it be Covid related? Nope. Needed the cash to start a hockey card collection. Tells me he’s doubled his money so far. I told him I know where he could find a financial advisor that he has something in common with. What’s the 5 year outlook on Conner’s rookie card anyway?

#93 Do we have all the facts on 11.01.20 at 7:45 am

I would be interested to know the extent to which the rapid growth of exchange traded funds in Canada has contributed to increases in value of the assets held within the funds.

In 2015 380 ETF’s in Canada had $87.6 billion in assets under management.

By September 2020 766 ETF’s in Canada held $244 billion in assets under management. An increase of $156.4 billion in just five years. This is not an insignificant shift.

In September 2020 ETF’s represented 12% of all investment capital within Canada and this share seems to be growing every year.

To the layman there would appear to be a “self fulfilling”
relationship between expansion of ETF’s as an investment choice and the value of assets held within a growing number of funds.

With the collapse of interest rates offered through fixed income vehicles investors are shifting their attention to equities generally and ETF’s specifically. As the number and size of ETF’s increases every year billions of dollars of equities are purchased to support the funds. As long as the volume of assets purchased by the expanding ETF market continues to grow the value of the underlying assets within the funds continues to increase.

In theory the value of equities being offered through various stock markets should be based on the economic health of each company. With expansion of the ETF market the value of assets held within each index could become driven by increased investment volumes not on economic fundamentals of the underlying assets.

History has illustrated that whenever the focus of investors is shifted away from economic fundamentals and towards attractive rates of return on investment the potential for a bubble emerges.

Does the current focus on ETF’s have the potential to become a bubble if the influx of new investment capital into these funds was to drastically decline.?

#94 Penny Henny on 11.01.20 at 9:18 am

#8 James on 10.31.20 at 11:23 am
-long rant about being more of a man than Smokie

///////////////

James even though Smokie hasn’t commented here for about a year he still OWNS you.
Figure that one out.

#95 David Hawke on 11.01.20 at 9:31 am

#12 Sail Away on 10.31.20 at 11:54 am
#8 James on 10.31.20 at 11:23 am

Re: Smoking Man

————-

Wow. Tone deaf bad taste doesn’t even start to describe your post.

Did you also write a gloating letter to Smokey’s widow and take a dump on his grave?

There’s a code. You’ve violated it.

I disagree as James is spot-on with his description of the ridiculous random rantings of the drunken dude. I only read the odd one from time to time as they were so stupid.

#96 Doug Rowat on 11.01.20 at 9:57 am

#94 Do we have all the facts on 11.01.20 at 7:45 am

As the number and size of ETF’s increases every year billions of dollars of equities are purchased to support the funds.

Does the current focus on ETF’s have the potential to become a bubble if the influx of new investment capital into these funds was to drastically decline.?

—-

No. The investment world still needs active management. Poorly performing companies need to be punished just as strongly performing companies need to be rewarded.

ETFs are simply forcing mutual funds to lower their costs (or morph themselves into ETF structures with active management overlays). Either way, costs go down, which is positive for investors.

Generally speaking, it’s not the structure of the product that will create the bubble, but the sentiment towards the underlying securities. But this is the way it’s always been.

—Doug

#97 Dharma Bum on 11.01.20 at 10:02 am

Not all mutual funds are created equal.

Most cost way too much. Outrageous fees.

Way back in the olden days (late eighties) us middle class peons didn’t have that much to choose from, investment wise. Mutual funds were a way to get into the market in a diversified way without having to pick individual stocks.

Dynamic Dividend Fund was one that, seems to me, was OK. The MER wasn’t so bad, compared to a lot of others, and the fund performed relatively well. I still own it in an RRSP.

http://idata.fundata.com/MutualFunds/FundSnapshot.aspx?Language=EN&FID=11210

There are a handful of others that perform well too, and have reasonable MERs.

Today, amateur passive investors have a lot more choice. Essentially, they can achieve the long term performance that the market provides without the high fees.

There are some arguments to be made for Mutual Funds insofar as people who have zero inclination to open a self managed investment account, or do not have enough money to allow for a fee based financial advisor. In such cases, Mutual Funds provide a way to start investing without having to pay trading fees, commissions, etc.

After a few years, once enough time has passed to avoid the cost of redemption, these neophyte investors can transition into ETFs and other types of broader based equity and fixed income instruments.

If one looks hard enough, there are some lower cost MER mutuals out there that have done extremely well and continue to do so. They still may be suitable for those with limited capital that want to get started investing.

After a while, they can switch into ETFs, REITs, Bonds, Private Equity, Credit/Debt, etc., and eventually qualify for F class funds and advisor fees of less than 1%.

It takes time, discipline, consistency, and patience.

People have to start somewhere, and although mutual funds are costly, it’s a way for some to get into the market.

#98 JacqueShellacque on 11.01.20 at 10:02 am

Hi Doug,

In both investing and baseball, is it luck, or an entirely different distribution?

“My sh-t doesn’t work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f-cking luck.”

Because I think the argument can be turned around: the ‘regular’ is random and normally distributed, but what you really want is performance (or protection) at the tails of the distribution, when the standard Beanecounting or 60/40 approaches break down. In most MLB playoff series, it comes down to a late-inning at-bat or 2 usually somewhere between Game 3 and Game 5. You want those 2 or 3 players that you can rely on in those scenarios, not an entire team-building approach. Similarly in investing, the big drops lower the amount that exists to earn any later gains. So if I’m hiring a baseball GM, I’m not interested in Beane, and in building a portfolio I want to know how to protect it from the big loss.

#99 Penny Henny on 11.01.20 at 11:01 am

here Doug, you’re now past 100 comments

#100 Dr V on 11.01.20 at 11:07 am

98 dharma = yawn, sorry, was up late last night…..

Let’s see if that fund passes Dr V’s sniff test

https://www.fundlibrary.com/MutualFunds/Detail/dynamic-dividend-fund-series-a/558

Mandate. To provide dividend income, mainly canadian.
Sounds good. Also has significant US holdings. Also a plus if you only have this one fund for dividend income.

Fee. 1.59% MER for active management incl. advisor’s
fee. Sounds reasonable, but no way to recoup it, so it is
a measureable drag on returns. Also a FE/BE option but my advisor does not charge me loads.

Rating. Looks excellent.

My question for you would be why hold in an RRSP?

#101 Reximus on 11.01.20 at 11:53 am

wow, something huge is happening in the US…it’s now possible that 50% of the *entire population* will vote in this election

Early and mail voting in Texas urban districts like Dallas Houston Austin etc have already surpassed 120% of the vote totals of 2016, rural districts have not followed that trend so far

#102 Ronaldo on 11.01.20 at 11:57 am

#98 Dharma Bum on 11.01.20 at 10:02 am

Spot on Dharma.

#103 the Jaguar on 11.01.20 at 12:16 pm

HEADS UP! Bill Morneau is the featured guest on Rosemary Barton Live in 45 minutes. CBC.
Please trash your old boss, Bill…..please, please pretty please……..

#104 Ronaldo on 11.01.20 at 12:45 pm

#102 Reximus on 11.01.20 at 11:53 am
wow, something huge is happening in the US…it’s now possible that 50% of the *entire population* will vote in this election

Early and mail voting in Texas urban districts like Dallas Houston Austin etc have already surpassed 120% of the vote totals of 2016, rural districts have not followed that trend so far
——————————————————————
Could be they may just want their oil jobs protected.

#105 Diamond Dog on 11.01.20 at 2:01 pm

#96 David Hawke on 11.01.20 at 9:31 am

Why oh why am I going to take 15 (ok, 45) to explain this again…

Smoking man was a character of fiction. OK? FICTION! His character exists only in the mind of a writer and while I’m certain its true that the writer’s signature is written all over SM (y’know, self projection), the fact remains that SM as an actual person doesn’t exist.

The tells were obvious. SM’s spelling was so bad, it was in every way intentional, you couldn’t come up with spelling like this unintentionally, like, ever. SM’s character weaknesses were all grossly exaggerated from the addictions, racial tropes and misogyny to his insecurities and prejudices. And yet, there was, on occasion, insights given by SM’s character that had sobriety and clarity and the points given in this state was one of a person on the outside looking in, the point of view of the author/creator himself, describing the mindset of the typical uneducated (rich/poor) white male and it’s appeal to Trump.

Why did SM get that Trump would win in 2016? Because he understood Trump’s base (uneducated white male voter), the size of this base and what triggers this base. SM understood it because the writer behind the character understood it. Do readers follow?

Now… I have no idea why any writer amateur or otherwise would go to the trouble of developing a fictional character like this in a site like this specifically online. Maybe you start something and you get addicted to the action/reaction of it, too much time on your hands, lonely perhaps, you think you are good at it, I don’t know. Certainly, most here on this sight have to admit, using a moniker instead of our real name gives us certain liberties and allows us to say things that we would normally never say person to person. If we were to use our real names, take my word for it, our “behavior” would be quite different for obvious reasons, because our names would be on the line. If there’s a person here that thinks anonymity doesn’t change how we/they interact here or anywhere else online, think again, it does. With Smoking Man, it was on steroids.

Was it helpful? You tell me. We are in the age of Trump, with a president that mirrors in at times, the worst of SM. It forces one to ask, if they are paying attention, how much of an act DJT really is. Imagine for a moment, someone playing a character to manipulate and trigger a specific demographic to win the WH, the largest demographic of them all, the uneducated poor white males of the USA. (welcome to Steven Bannon’s world) Who would you get to play that role… someone from TV or Hollywood, someone who is known to be rich and successful (at least through TV) who possesses humor and can play the fool. How much of DJT is an act for effect, to garner votes, and how much of DJT is real?

In Jame’s defense, real or fake, it doesn’t matter, it’s a turnoff, its offensive and the guy’s got to go. (until you resurrect SM from the dead just to dump on him that is, something akin to a guy screaming at the silver screen in a movie theater with some warped belief that the actor without a pulse will hear and react. Keeping one’s composure, not James best day)

Like so, for Trump. One of Trump’s latest lies is closing his rallies with “Doctors are faking Covid fatalities because they make a quick 2 grand with each case.” This is the height of obscenity, to suggest that Doctors are faking Covid deaths for 2K a pop. It’s not just untrue and slurs a profession at a time when its most challenged, it hugely downplays the seriousness of a pandemic. This is a blatant abuse of power and behavior that will cost lives.

I don’t care how real or fake that is, Trump’s got to go and if anyone thinks the higher ups in the Republican party and their donors don’t know it, guess what, they do (donor numbers show it in spades). The question is, can either party stop him. Trump has the support of the uneducated white male vote by a margin of more than 2 to 1. How do you hack into the mindset of the uneducated white male vote, a demographic that doesn’t possess critical thinking to change that? We know the prevents for the future, you educate, you teach (and you breed them out) but at this juncture this late in the game? Would the man behind SM, if he was alive today, would he have insights for that?

Or, is base still base and you get back to the basics by telling the truth, call out lies, lay out plans and hope there’s enough critical thinkers voting that tame their own flaws and it sticks because their names are on the line. Electing Trump once, a nation can make excuses for that. Elect him twice? That becomes USA’s identity, they can’t run from that. The cost to trade and reputation never mind direct costs associated with woefully ignorant leadership such as how to handle a pandemic, the U.S. simply won’t be what it once was with Trump in power for a second term. There isn’t anything we can do about it here in Canada, but we shouldn’t be blind to these realities should they come to pass.

#106 Imagine on 11.02.20 at 1:08 am

#8 James re Smoking Man

Imagine writing that screed and thinking you are the good guy.