A few scant days before the US election and volatility’s spiked again. See the chart below – the VIX – which measures how many Tums, per trader, are popped on the world’s major stock exchanges, divided by quarts of gin consumed. It’s wicked accurate.
The VIX has spiked the most since mid-summer and will likely stretch higher in the next 72 hours. You know why. The virus is somewhat out of control in Europe and the States. Ninety thousand new cases in America yesterday. Wow. We may still hit a hundred grand by Tuesday, lousy news for a certain president who must remain nameless on this blog (lest we trigger the deplorables).
That vote looks astonishing. More ballots have been cast in Texas before election day, for example, than all the votes (in total) counted in 2016. The fact that 75 or 80 million people will have decided prior to November the 3rd is outrageously historic. But what does it mean? Good to the incumbent? Or the challenger? In any case, it’s got Mr. Market’s attention.
Will the second wave of the virus be as consequential for investors as the first? Recall that stocks plunged more than 30% in just a few weeks back in March before staging a massive comeback. Anyone who had the courage to go equity shopping on March 23rd soon looked like a genius. Could we be headed for that kind of correction again? If so, would it be as temporary?
October – always notoriously volatile – has delivered the worst showing since March. Investors worry about new infections, the fact squabbling US politicians have failed to deliver that new stimulus package, economic slowdown and the election. Actually the aftermath of the election – that’s the firecracker.
The virus hurts the presidency. Uncertainty reigns. Markets hate not knowing what’s next. Will there be a contested, disputed outcome next week? Trump (oops, sorry) has cancelled his election night party in his Washington hotel. Does that mean anything? He has trashed absentee and mail-in balloting. The betting now is that he may win a mirage victory Tuesday night – based on in-person votes – with that thrown into question as the advance polls and mailed votes are tallied and added. But, who knows? It’s all conjecture. And that’s the problem.
First, the nightmare scenario. Then what to do about it.
Says US economist Daniel Ahn: “If there is a constitutional crisis, we believe that the loss of political credibility and standing of the United States as a stable country could threaten its status as a safe haven with unfathomable consequences for the economy and for markets.” That crisis would come as the sitting president refuses to accept the results of the popular vote by alleging fraud, proven or not. A legal battle ensues. Perhaps it even goes to the Supreme Court. Or the floor of Congress.
Meanwhile there is no stimulus package and the year ends with a declining American economy as millions of consumers shut their depleted wallets. Should this happen, Bank of America strategists forecast that US stocks could slide 20%. Bond yields would tumble even lower. Bond prices would spike. The US dollar would be impacted. The Fed would probably go negative.
So what would benefit in this scenario?
Bond prices move in the opposite direction to rates, so investors with balanced portfolios would feel some love. Also with stocks in a post-election funk, lots of money would be looking for a safer place to land. More impetus for bonds to pop. And as the US dollar takes a hit, commodities priced in it would benefit. So cue the gold bugs.
Now, the most important points to remember are these: (a) the US election will get fixed. There will be a swearing-in on Wednesday January 20th. When the outcome is known, markets will restore. And, (b) the virus will fade. The pandemic will pass. The curve will go flat. A vaccine will come and therapies develop. The world will be a much brighter place six months hence. Plus (c) there will be a multi-trillion-dollar stimulus bill passed once the voting crisis (if it materializes) is over. Bank it.
This means if you have cash sitting around, deploy it. Monday, if you’re confident on a firm outcome on Tuesday. The week after, if you’re not. But if you’re invested now in a balanced and diversified portfolio, do nothing. The storm will come, blow down a bunch of trees and power poles, then pass. There’s no point trying to time both the sale and purchase of the same assets. Odds are you’ll get one of those wrong. So, relax. Watch the show.
Tums and gin, by the way, pretty damn awesome.
136 comments ↓
I get the sense that all this blither about a contested election is just that – blither. At the end of the day the worlds dramatic response to the virus is vastly more important than any of the political ‘conflict’ happening in America. If the orange man loses, then he can maintain his giant ego saying it was fraud. If he wins he carries on for for more years. It’s nothing more than ego protection.
oh garth, i hope it was all worth it. money, power, greed. when will humanity be able to finally with stand these temptations? maybe Garth has some insight into it he’d like to share? But that is how the game is played, you can’t play if you aren’t compromised one way or another.
“ The world will be a much brighter place six months hence.”
———————————————
What’s the contingency plan if it isn’t?
5 DAYS TO GLOBAL CATASTROPHE!
It does not matter whether Trump “wins” or “loses”.
The fractures are ready to start exploding.
“Actually the aftermath of the election – that’s the firecracker.”
Exactly. The ramping up of crises, spin-off events and breakdowns after Tuesday night will look worse than the first Covid-19 curve.
So is it…
“The storm will come, blow down a bunch of trees and power poles, then pass.”
Or, perhaps….
“The storm will come, blow down a bunch of trees and power poles, then we pass.”
Only those who have taken action already will be the ones to find out.
PREPARE
Trump (oops, sorry) That’s the name of your cow, right.
Central banks/negative rates. Increasing probability you can almost bank on.
The VIX has spiked the most since mid-summer and will likely stretch higher in the next 72 hours. You know why. The virus is somewhat out of control in Europe and the States. Ninety thousand new cases in America yesterday. Wow. We may still hit a hundred grand by Tuesday, lousy news for a certain president who must remain nameless on this blog (lest we trigger the deplorables).
———
I think they’re triggered no matter what.
Already get my credit ready for good quality assets at discount.
Wise words. Been shopping today, Will be next week and the following. Averaging in.
Sorry if I sound like TurnerNation, but this is seriously creepy!
Cadillac Fairview secretly installed facial recognition cameras inside the wayfinder maps in malls.
Exactly where people would be standing, staring at the map to try to see where to go.
Stealing the identities of over 5 million people for surveillance.
https://www.cp24.com/news/cadillac-fairview-collected-millions-of-images-of-shoppers-at-malls-across-canada-privacy-watchdog-1.5166220
Holy crap, this is awful.
On top of this, just think of all our police forces that have been using similar tech the last few years and claim now not to be.
Who can be trusted?
Add some St. Germain in to that drink Garth & you’ll have perfection.
I think Trump will win. Whether that is good or bad, who cares. I got dry powder ready for the fallout.
Yesterday #51 Guelph Guru -good call on the oil ETFs
OIH.US up 3.3% heavyweight large cap ETF.
Tums and gin, huh? I’ll trust you on that. Both at the same time or gin at the gains and tums on the losses?
Not sure when you hit send on this one, but the S&P bounced hard off a bottom at about 1/2 hour before closing and regained half of what it had lost today. Confer yesterday where the opposite closing action occurred.
Options markets are pricing in big daily moves in the markets, but no saying what the trend will be. FATMANG ate it hard today. Lots of gin, lots of Tums coming.
Yields up today though implying people selling bonds into the storm which is unusual, or a sign that it wasn’t much of a storm.
Yesterday and today in the fun $ commission free account, bought vix futures as they fell below $46. Limit sold them at $0.50 intervals up to $49. Didn’t make it to $49, so I still have a share as my “bet” on election craziness. Came out ahead today, but probably sweatshop wages given time spent thinking about it.
Garth, in your opinion, is it possible to return to the gold standard? Seems to me like the CB is a big problem in terms of funding things like wars or COVID relief at the whim of who ever is in charge. If they actually had to finance wars by raising taxes or issuing war bonds, would they be able to do half the things they wanted to do? Isn’t that reason enough to get rid of the CB?
Impossible. Never. Plus, it won’t happen. – Garth
It’s odd how this virus and the lockstep reaction to it is only destroying the fabric, psyche and economies of the FIRST World countries. How does it know.
Look around, all you see is all you gonna get.
We’re broke and soon to be reduced to 2nd world, tent cities; empty streets and storefronts just waiting for the looters err I mean scavengers looking to feed their families. That’s my city.
UN rule won’t be fun folks. We won WW2 but lost WW3, already.
Carbon taxes, energy audits on homes (TBD) no one will escape the New System.
Says US economist Daniel Ahn: “If there is a constitutional crisis, we believe that the loss of political credibility and standing of the United States as a stable country could threaten its status as a safe haven with unfathomable consequences for the economy and for markets.”
—————-
Anytime someone uses ‘unfathomable’ when making a prediction, they’re just saying ‘your guess is as good as mine’
So, since it’s open, my guess is a nothingburger. Remember the Brexit secession referendum? Nothingburger then, nothingburger now.
I am considering refinancing my mortgage and taking 100K equity to stuff all my 60/40 B&Ds. The interest rates are in the mid 1s.
Garth, what say you?
Talk to your advisor and understand the risk-reward balance. – Garth
Hey, someone stole my name.
Makes me wonder:
“Is there more than one TurnerNation too”?
Mmm, does that make me a conspiracy theorist?
#186 Sail Away on 10.30.20 at 2:35 pm
#178 Faron on 10.30.20 at 1:37 pm
#165 IHCTD9 on 10.30.20 at 11:03 am
W/re cartwheels, I’m not one to not try. Especially if I take Garth’s advice and get into the gin and tums.
Sincerely, scouring my brain, I don’t think you are behind that thinking. But, one never knows how one is influenced and what gets subconsciously absorbed. So, I’ll give you 10% ownership.
I was questioning my assumption and received wisdom that Latin Americans in the US are like AOC or Sotomayor and that a left-wing Latin-x vote would eventually give the majority to democrats. I saw this kind of thinking as a blind spot. Ultimately, I think enough are put off by Trump’s personality and anti-immigrant status to not vote for him even if they could support a more moderate GOP candidate. But, I could see, and have heard good analysis, that someone like Rubio in FL could do much to sweep Latinos into the GOP through pro-immigrant and pro-small business policy. That would be an upset to democrats who are banking on demographics to give them a lock on gobernment.
Putin must chuckling to himself about the American election gong show. Run by a certain person with the fake face tan.
Any comments or posts about the Canadian economy (or lack thereof) coming up?
One thing I knew in life was that small dogs owned by women disliked me.
My mother’s faith in me was unshakable though I did fail her, sometimes. My sister sent me letters she had written and there were very reveling – truly a classy women. For that, I will always remember her and carry her legacy forward – my wife did not care for her but she loved my father.
I turned out to be almost like him – quick to laugh and tell stories despite the hardship. We did have a tendency to fight with one another but at the end of the day I did want he wanted and with backbone – not without complaints. He had a tough love for me and gave me the courage to go on. For that I will not forget either.
Lets do the time warp again – I always liked the tap dancer and her ‘tude.
Here’s the thing:
People crave drama. Just as humans have evolved a bodily need for all minerals in general circulation, we also have a need for the drama that comes with trauma. We evolve to require the things that sustain life. Great risk/great reward is baked into our psyche. If it’s not there, we’ll create it. Road rage, wars, insane overreactions, etc.
Animals that profit from unrest are greatly attracted to it. Deer and most prey animals run away as fast as they can with no curiosity. Cats, dogs, bears run toward it. And so do we.
We can’t eliminate our innate need for the dramatic. Everyone thrills over a train crash.
Turtles are different. They have not evolved to profit from trauma. Therefore, turtles don’t provoke drama. Fellow turtle death doesn’t bother them- in fact, they will calmly munch their erstwhile fellow.
What we can do is recognize fabricated drama and noodle out the opportunity.
Garth, I’m not sure why we should think the virus situation will be any better in 6 months. A vaccine is no sure thing. Therapies for treatment, sure. But we’ll still be “flattening the curve” with restrictions on movement, socializing, and conducting business. Count on it.
And even if there is an approved vaccine it will take months or longer to roll out billions of it across the planet. Not to mention the public health battle that will commence to why we should take it (I will, but you just know that a significant portion of the population will not).
This isn’t going to end anytime soon. This IS the new normal.
DELETED
No ammo along with weekly grocery and toilet paper shop. Walmart pulled guns/ammo pre election. No doubt opinions divided so I linked two sources.
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/walmart-pulls-guns-ammo-displays-in-u-s-stores-citing-civil-unrest-11604002136
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/walmart-pulls-guns-ammo-displays-in-us-stores-citing-civil-unrest.amp
Cancelled party blamed on Washington, D.C.’s mayor…
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-election-2020-trump-hotel-20201030-jlz6f4fe75cblhgngpknmxpuhu-story.html%3foutputType=amp
#23 westcdn – it’s posts like yours that turn me off the comments section. For real. These are the posts that should be deleted.
The blither about a contested election is what sealed the deal on Donald’s exit from politics. There are millions of infrequent voters voting this time. They are all going to deny Donald his close election blither, and the subsequent chaos, that Trump is promising.
The masses voting against a foreseeable problem. Donald drafted his own political demise.
Trump tower celebration cancelled for security reasons. Antifa has been deployed. Stores across the country being boarded up already.
If you can navigate the twitter verse you can see them organizing for an Election Day surge in DC and try to overrun the WH.
Give it a rest. Trump just blamed the cancellation on the DC mayor and the illegality of large gatherings. You are contributing nothing of value to this blog. Go away. – Garth
#17 Sail Away on 10.30.20 at 4:39 pm
Remember the Brexit secession referendum? Nothingburger then, nothingburger now.
—
Thanks Nigel,
Tell that to the GBP or the FTSE.
FTSE100: June 23rd, 2016 to Jan 2020 highs: + 25%
IEV (europe ETF): June 23st to Jan 2020 highs: +32%
GBP lost 1/6th its value during the brexit campaign and following months.
Continued deep thoughts:
The human species has never been more secure since we are globally capable of feeding, sheltering, producing and distributing enough for the entire human population to live comfortably.
And money’s a fabrication. It has to be: the earth is a closed system. It’s not like money came from somewhere else.
Research on mountain goats in a herd show that they average an interpersonal tiff about every 30 minutes. When skinned out, all mountain goats have dozens to hundreds of healed skin punctures. They’re just acting like goats.
We’re just acting like humans. Always squabbling, always will. We need it.
#25 Classical Liberal Millennial on 10.30.20 at 4:58 pm
—————
I and many others I know will consider taking it based on right to informed consent and enough good quality well designed studies independently funded showing reasonable efficacy and safety are published. There’s also justified concerns over maker’s possible legal immunity from damages (hopefully not the case in recent Brazil trial). I respect the right of others to choose otherwise.
“…the U.S. election will get fixed”
There are more than a few conspiracy theorists who claim it already is ‘fixed’. You’ll see them marching in the streets in a week or two.
Bobby Orr is endorsing the stable genius who sits maskless behind the resolute desk in the Oval Office where he meets with kings, queens, prime ministers, despots and tinpot dictators.
Tums and gin, is that anything like mentos and coke?
While the last couple of paragraphs are undoubtedly true; it’s the period from Nov.2, 2020 and Jan. 20, 2021 that are the bigger concern. The revenge taking could make the last four years pale. CVS has boarded up at least some stores and their reason is the pending election. Walmart has removed firearms and ammo from the sales floor, same reason and fear of unrest following the outcome. Most of the fools dressed up like they are going into battle are way more talk than action but there is some portion that are as stark raving mad as the lunatic that has been egging them on the last few years. Even he is likely more talk than action but he is still dangerous and even a peaceful turnover of power still makes me wonder what someone with limited sense, less brains and a boatload of debt might do with knowledge acquired that is available to so few might do with it as those debts to god knows who come due. After all he’s already bragged to people he shouldn’t about things he shouldn’t just to prop up his own delicate ego. That is what I’d assume because the people he shot his mouth of to already were well aware he would know this stuff. If I ran an incoming administration I’d have handcuffs or a straitjacket ready for about 12.10 PM Jan. 20, 2021.
VIX or not, it was a good day for GDP and not just for Canada.
Canada July to August 2020
+1.2%
Canada has almost FULLY recovered to its prior GDP peak ($ X1000):
Feb 2020 = 1,995,120
August 2020 = 1,904,249
-4.55%
-3.8% vs. Aug 2019
————-
European Union Q2 to Q3 2020
+12.7%
G3/7 (Bad Boy UK no longer in the EU):
France 18.2%
Deutschland 8.2%
Italia 16.1%
-3.9% vs Q3 2019
————-
Both foresee lower numbers, especially in Europe, due to increased restrictions – grazie DAMN VIRUS.
Still, up ALWAYS better than down. Indeed, it was GOOD DAY.
Celebrate our wins whenever we can in these uncertain times.
Interesting times. We’ve got agent orange whipping up his base of uneducated white male voters, the only demographic he’s leading in btw but is it enough? Are there enough uneducated white male voters to win him a second term?
Uneducated white voters make up 41% of the gen pop. Close to half are females and uneducated females are dead even. According to a CNN poll, uneducated white males support Trump by a whopping 68% to 30% for Biden. If they all voted, 68% of 20% of the gen pop (66 mil) is 45 million. Doesn’t sound like much, but 129 million people cast a vote in the 2016 presidential election with Trump winning by 63 million votes.
So, Trump’s rally’s may look foolish in not expanding the tent and pandering to his “base”, but what Trump is doing is trying to turn out the vote from his true believers. It’s always been about turnout. Turn out and trend wise for Republicans, voter suppression and gerrymandering down ballot. USPS has been systemically slowed down by the Trump administration to keep votes from being sorted. We could see upwards of 3 million mail in votes not counted this year because they didn’t get to the ballot box by election day or in some states 1 to 3 days after and Dem are known to vote early. We could also see militias intimidating voters this year as a new wrinkle with legal open carry firearms in some states on the 3rd, as well as the usual voter suppression tactics we’ve seen in the past in the southern states.
On the sane side, educated voters, women, seniors and minorities are looking for blood. Having witnessed 4 years of overt needless conflict coupled with highly unusual amounts of corruption, immorality and government failure, Trump opposition is energized. They aren’t looking to vote a party in, but vote a party out in the same way we do things here in Canada and they are motivated.
Is this bump in early voting going to lead to one of the highest voter turnouts for any election in the modern age? Will the Biden factor be a factor once more? (he’s lost but one election since 1974, lost running in a presidential primary in 2016 and made up for it. Biden’s history is nothing but winning and he’s old as dirt) Will traditional Republican voters be switching and vote blue? Or, conversely, will it be the uneducated male white voter that sets the course for America and by proxy, the world over the next 4 years (or more)…
Y’know, the untaught, unschooled, ill-educated, untutored, untrained, unread, unscholarly, illiterate, unlettered, ignorant, ill-informed, uninformed, lowbrow, uncouth, unsophisticated, uncultivated, uncultured, unaccomplished, unenlightened, philistine, benighted, backward, vulgar, simple, rude, dullard, handicapped, slow, dim, thick, special, challenged crowd.
We won’t have long to wait!
How about that virus. 548,500 cases reported in the world yesterday. The world is in recession, no doubt about it. This pandemic will end, but it won’t be this winter. What to do about that, here’s something to think about:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6rRtTzMsBo
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201012/Zinc-deficiency-linked-to-poor-COVID-19-outcomes.aspx
Despite arguing against Brexit not being a thing, I also think this election will blow over without more than a week or two of strife and most of that will be in the form of political/legal wrangling. One or two days/nights of demonstrations and then the ballots will be counted and the winner will be clear enough to stop the squabble.
People are hyper focused on this event as an impenetrable singularity from which only badness ensues. This might mean there are opportunities if you can envision the positive outcome that people aren’t seeing or are discounting. I think that’s what Sail Away was saying at the end of #24.
Doesn’t mean I’m not anxious as hell though!
#38 Diamond Dog on 10.30.20 at 5:43 pm
Interesting times. We’ve got agent orange whipping up his base of uneducated white male voters, the only demographic he’s leading in btw but is it enough? Are there enough uneducated white male voters to win him a second term?
—————–
For crying out loud, buddy. We get it: you’re voting for Trump. Sheesh.
Prepare for a Democrat sweep.
It’s getting bad in Europe Garth and fellow Commenters, table of the sad numbers:
https://i.imgur.com/gp4zVeW.png
Charts showing Exponential growth in Daily Cases* and Deaths:
https://i.imgur.com/nMCLsKh.png
https://i.imgur.com/VEBRIi8.png
Without a vaccine/life giving therapies in early 2021, economic activity is probably going get WORSE before it gets better in the EU – IN PART why the VIX not so happy today even with good GDP news.
*Sep 28, 2020 Chancellor Merkel warned of 19200 daily new cases by Christmas in Deutschland. She was in general dismissed as fear mongering (1192 new cases that day). Today Deutschland recorded:
19367 daily new cases.
Deutschers freaking out and do you blame them? “Soft lockdown” for them starts Monday. I read their restrictions, pretty much a full lockdown for all intents and purposes. AND Merkel reports they are have problems with “Test and Trace”.
If Deutschland having problems, the rest of Europe is screwed (incl. SWEDEN that posted 3396 new cases yesterday or if “Kanada” were Sverige it would have had 10862 new cases…it had 2956 instead).
—————–
For the record charts showing Daily Cases for Canada (I’d say Exponential) and Deaths (trend up, still LOW vs. 1st Wave, 17% of May 7 peak):
https://i.imgur.com/qzjSZla.png
https://i.imgur.com/QV2sNkL.png
#35 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.30.20 at 5:25 pm
“Bobby Orr is endorsing the stable genius who sits maskless behind the resolute desk in the Oval Office where he meets with kings, queens, prime ministers, despots and tinpot dictators.” You left out Jack Nicklaus and Brett Favre! :(
#40 Sail Away on 10.30.20 at 5:48 pm
“For crying out loud, buddy. We get it: you’re voting for Trump. Sheesh.” Did you like DD’s characterization of you, ‘not 1st’ and ‘Nonplused’? I thought it was spot-on! :P
Just read the yesterday’s posting. Lol. Didn’t I say multiple times that the govt won’t let RE go down because it’s 18% of GDP? Now we see this in action. RE is vital for Canadian economy. It cannot be left to fall.
If your young & tough, read, write & speak good english, can be randomly tested without pissing hot & live in B.C. Its gonna be good. Of course if family is mentoring & setting up the schools & training & shortcuts then the future is fantastic. Like Sail Away is trying to hint ” a good soldier heads towards the sound of guns; not away”.
#40 Sail Away on 10.30.20 at 5:48 pm
#38 Diamond Dog on 10.30.20 at 5:43 pm
Interesting times. We’ve got agent orange whipping up his base of uneducated white male voters, the only demographic he’s leading in btw but is it enough? Are there enough uneducated white male voters to win him a second term?
—————–
For crying out loud, buddy. We get it: you’re voting for Trump. Sheesh
—
Haha!
This is WW3. Troops deployed in USA. As in WW2 all First World countries are involved.
This war, we are the enemy. It’s as if Iraq and Afghanistan were practice for taking over cities, people.
Bag ’em and tag ’em right?
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2020/10/pa-gov-orders-hundreds-of-national-guard-troops-to-activate-in-philly/
As I pointed out months ago:
…….
#96 TurnerNation on 08.15.20 at 10:37 am
No fun in the new system. We are at war you know.
They will never let us forget it.
As with soldiers staff are issued masks, gloves and weapons (spray guns). To be used on the enemy: us! We are all diseased. Into the camp de-lousing showers we go.
….
Also that Distancing is a COMBAT term they gave us. Could it be any clearer? WW3. Our downtowns have been economically bom’d to bits. All activities cancelled. Wartime blank cheque government spending.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distancing
Distancing is the appropriate selection of distance between oneself and a combatant throughout an encounter. Distancing is significant in an altercation as it determines both attack and defence options for all parties involved.[1] Timing and tactics are also important elements of combat which are often used in conjunction with distancing by experienced martial artists.[2]
Distancing is an important concept in all combative sports and arts. It applies to both un-armed and armed combat.
‘Watch the show’.
That’s what Tore says, on the ‘Tore Says show’.
(If interested I’m sure you can find her on your own. I found her on YouTube.)
She also covered in her 0ct 29 show amongst other things, what
‘Tucker Carlson’ from Fox News show covered about the other nameless guy and his family. (I’m not sure why more mass media isn’t covering it?)
Turkey-France-NATO and other thing are mentioned.
Is Tore a bit of a time traveler? She says she was a former government contractor with access to all communications. ‘The swamp’ come up too.
Tore could just be full of it of course.
Tums and Gin sound good at times like this. Especially with the big concern and rightly so, the virus on the loose.
Because what do I know, nothing.
I have my popcorn ready, to watch the show.
Yes an excellent points to be reminded of:
“Now, the most important points to remember are these: (a) the US election will get fixed. There will be a swearing-in on Wednesday January 20th. When the outcome is known, markets will restore. And, (b) the virus will fade. The pandemic will pass. The curve will go flat. A vaccine will come and therapies develop. The world will be a much brighter place six months hence. Plus (c) there will be a multi-trillion-dollar stimulus bill passed once the voting crisis (if it materializes) is over. Bank it.”
Found this gem on the BCBID today:
—————–
ITQ-006331
Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy
2020/10/30
2020/11/09 14:00
Supply & Delivery of 7.62 X 51mm Ammunition (Kamloops)
—————–
huh?! what’s their strategy with 93,000 rounds of ammunition. I have so many questions, so little answers about this. lol
if the feds in the states go negative, then I think Canada would follow.
I think things will be worse in the next 3-6 month if the government cancels Christmas. So many places will close down, because they rely on the holiday season.
something to think about
#14 Faron on 10.30.20 at 4:31 pm
Tums and gin, huh? I’ll trust you on that. Both at the same time or gin at the gains and tums on the losses?
Not sure when you hit send on this one, but the S&P bounced hard off a bottom at about 1/2 hour before closing and regained half of what it had lost today. Confer yesterday where the opposite closing action occurred.
Options markets are pricing in big daily moves in the markets, but no saying what the trend will be. FATMANG ate it hard today. Lots of gin, lots of Tums coming.
Yields up today though implying people selling bonds into the storm which is unusual, or a sign that it wasn’t much of a storm.
Yesterday and today in the fun $ commission free account, bought vix futures as they fell below $46. Limit sold them at $0.50 intervals up to $49. Didn’t make it to $49, so I still have a share as my “bet” on election craziness. Came out ahead today, but probably sweatshop wages given time spent thinking about it.
/////////
Hello Faron
You are seemingly very confident on which the way the markets will turn.
Good luck!
#159 Do we have all the facts on 10.30.20 at 9:38 am
#170 Paul B on 10.30.20 at 12:36 pm
#175 Ace Goodheart on 10.30.20 at 12:58 pm
#176 Sail Away on 10.30.20 at 1:01 pm
Dear intrepid data explorers,
Given #159s description of “the data”, please explain to me the objective facts that are the excess deaths numbers for Canada (and every other nation that has had COVID deaths) that show a number of deaths and the timing of those deaths exactly tracing the deaths coded as COVID-19 related. They completely dismantle your coding argument and unless you can explain them with some other mechanism of death, you have to work those into your framework. Otherwise, you fail at being objective which implies subjectivity arising either from fear, ignorance or malice. At least one of those things is an emotion, the other two arise from emotion.
If you can’t work those numbers into your framework then you must cease with your coding argument because it lacks merit or foundation within the full scope of the data at hand. If your coding argument fails, then you are left with an argument that older people with pre-existing conditions should not count or be somehow given less weight. This is sticky territory. Ignoring or minimizing the deaths of anyone of any age in a way that may lead to further damage, especially when the number of deaths is a large percentage of the population is tantamount to a war crime and a violation of international law which forbids geriatricide and many other forms of negligent killing. Are you openly copping to such acts?
I don’t think you are. I think you have erred in your logic and would appreciate it if you try harder. There are simpler ways of working the data into a factual framework here and they avoid the distasteful wander into sacrificing our elders, isolating them, or otherwise wilfully ignoring the peril that they and we all face due to SARS-CoV-2.
Respectfully and emotionally yours,
Faron
The 2500HD was dragging mud flaps on the way home today. Loaded to the bed rails with ammo and AR-15’s, more freeze dried food, first aid supplies, flame throwers, potable water, Mylar bags, high powered flashlights, antibiotics, and fire starter. I don’t how much more I can pack into the bunker, but I think I’m ready for next Tuesday.
One thing I knew in life was that small dogs owned by women disliked me.
My mother’s faith in me was unshakable though I did fail her, sometimes. My sister sent me letters she had written and there were very reveling – truly a classy women. For that, I will always remember her and carry her legacy forward – my wife did not care for her but she loved my father.
I turned out to be almost like him – quick to laugh and tell stories despite the hardship. We did have a tendency to fight with one another but at the end of the day I did want he wanted and with backbone – not without complaints. He had a tough love for me and gave me the courage to go on. For that I will not forget either.
Lets do the time warp again – I always liked the tap dancer and her ‘tude.
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I hear ya brother. Keith and I had the same sort of relationship. Mom (Shirley) was always on us to ‘cool it’. We played our music, sang the songs , and all that. But at the end of the day Reuben and Laurie knew where the kibble was kept. That is the truth my man, the truth.
I don’t expect the rest of you do get this, but my main man westcdn will/does. We keep it real. The dream is the end game my friend, let’s never lose sight of that.
#23 westcdn on 10.30.20 at 4:57 pm
David Parquette please keep posting.
That goes double for you Turnernation.
Comparatively, Canada doing well compared to most countries when it comes to the DAMN VIRUS.
All hope is not lost.
I mean look at the Cases/100K population chart from the ECDC:
https://i.imgur.com/QEwSvIC.png
Ya, HOLY DUNG…starting to look like a chocolate bar*.
This from @imgrund on Twitter, right hand side cases/100K population NOT chocolate bar colors vs. the above map:
https://i.imgur.com/VMkr3aR.png
Hazard to say, the ATLANTIC BUBBLE would qualify for that Mediterranean Blue on the ECDC map (PEI for sure, sorry NS, NFLD & Labrador, no can do). Even worst case MN & PQ would be “beigey” on their map.
And yes almost all Cdn Provincial Rt values > 1 means its spreading, no dung Sherlock, but get in line Canada it’s the same in Europe if that’s any consolation.
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*Expect new color bars from the ECDC so everyone does not look so bad.
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You’re still doing well Canada vs. the rest. And GDP went up, not down.
Reasons to be GRATEFUL.
#31 Faron on 10.30.20 at 5:16 pm
#17 Sail Away on 10.30.20 at 4:39 pm
Remember the Brexit secession referendum? Nothingburger then, nothingburger now.
—
Thanks Nigel,
Tell that to the GBP or the FTSE.
FTSE100: June 23rd, 2016 to Jan 2020 highs: + 25%
IEV (europe ETF): June 23st to Jan 2020 highs: +32%
GBP lost 1/6th its value during the brexit campaign and following months.
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Short term pain long term gain.
They want control of THEIR country, more power to them.
Agreed, if feds go negative, Canada most likely to follow suit.
#1 C V on 10.30.20 at 3:59 pm
I get the sense that all this blither about a contested election is just that – blither.
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I’ve been fretting over this for weeks now. I think I’ll subscribe to your newsletter instead. Thanks for the reality check.
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#8 Dennis on 10.30.20 at 4:09 pm
Already get my credit ready for good quality assets at discount.
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Wow. Where did you get your credit card?? If there is a 1%-2% interest rate credit card out there, then we all need to know!!
#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.30.20 at 5:50 pm
Prepare for a Democrat sweep.
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How much would you like to wager?
You right, I don’t comment for two months.
You wrong, you don’t comment for one month.
Balls, have you got them?
#10 James
————————
I’ve known about this for more than a year. Whenever I use one of the find your way screens, I cover the camera with my thumb. It’s very easy to spot if your looking for it.
#4 Apocalypse2020
I’m with you :)
Sitting here watching the world burn.
Everyone in France is now basically on house arrest. Allowed out for an hour a day, for exercise. Don’t go more than a kilometer from your house. Rest of Europe appears likely to follow.
And it is not even November yet.
Wait till the snow flies.
USA is about to have an election which might result in civil war.
Far fetched? Tell that to the dudes gathering in parks carrying AR-15s they bought at Walmart. If the USA wants to avoid serious social unrest, stop selling civilians military weaponry. They are better armed than most police forces.
Meanwhile in polite Canada, we have nothing. Despite Trudeau’s best efforts to paint us all as “settlers” and “systemic racists” we all get along anyway. I have many indigenous friends. They don’t want me to leave.
Most of the people I know are not white. We all get along.
Social distancing has become easy. Mask wearing as simple as putting on your underwear in the morning (and as normal).
Our curve seems to be flattening. The East coast is still mostly virus free.
The best country in the world? Probably. By accident of birth, I happened to be born into this wonderful society.
Re #7 by Stone
lousy news for a certain president who must remain nameless on this blog (lest we trigger the deplorables).
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I think they’re triggered no matter what.
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I agree. I’ve been monitoring this all year. The Republican right…the deplorables…have largely held back on retaliation on the Antifa/BLM protests, violence and looting. Yes, there have been a few skirmishes here and there but not to any great degree. That all changes after the election. The right is very well armed, their blood pressure is high after standing by all year, and they are anticipating their time to retaliate. Garth, I wouldn’t doubt for a second that you will delete this post and I suppose that’s fine as it’s your blog. However, I think it’s important for people to realize just how bad things could very likely get in the next few weeks. I really believe that martial law is not out of the question at all.
“There have been a few skirmishes here and there but not to any great degree.” Probably news to the families of the two dudes rifleboy murdered. – Garth
Using postal voting allows the potential for fraud. Will fraud happen – I don’t know, but why use a system that undermines the faith people have in the system?
Going to a poling station, marking your “X” and dropping it in a ballot box seems safer.
It’s a pandemic. Did you hear about it? In any case there is no evidence of mail ballot fraud, says the FBI. Sounds legit. – Garth
#37 Life of Pleasure
The injection of trillions of borrowed dollars in various economies around the world is bound to have an impact on GDP.
Productivity is the key to success not heaping mountains of debt on future generations.
We definitely need better indicators of economic health.
“It’s a pandemic. Did you hear about it? In any case there is no evidence of mail ballot fraud, says the FBI. Sounds legit.” – Garth
Costco, Walmart, Lowes, … everywhere packed. Do you get out or has the guy yelling at you while walking the dog forced you indoors?
What’s the risk difference between stores and a polling station with little arrows and stickers all over the place to herd the voters?
I have no clue what security steps they’ve taken, but if it appears secure, then I think that would deflate the argument for voter fraud. If it seems there is potential for fraud, whatever side loses will create problems…I just don’t want a sh!tshow unfolding down south – in the most powerful nation on earth.
Tanqueray and a hot early spring day, while chironamid fishing on an interior lake in BC. Oh yeah … don’t need the tums … just some ice.
@#61 Penile Envy
“You right, I don’t comment for two months.
You wrong, you don’t comment for one month.
Balls, have you got them?”
++++
Sure.
I agree to those terms.
Democrats take the Presidency and the Senate
I win. See you in Jan.
I lose. See you in Dec.
@ #65, CalgaryCarGuy:
https://www.king5.com/article/news/investigations/analysis-of-seattle-protester-arrests/281-908cad06-29be-408a-9093-3f45941bc039?
Of 95 cases obtained from public records requests and through court filings, KING 5 found:
48% of suspects are white
18% of suspects are black
28% of cases race was undetermined or not listed
32% of suspects listed Seattle as hometown
Almost 50% are white. Almost 70% are from out of town.
sure doesn’t sound like BLM to me, sounds like white fellas from out of town drove in to cause a ruckus. I hope they are proud or their boogaloo ways.
If you bother to read the linked article you will find a large percentage of arrested participants have had their charges and bail conditions waived. I’ll bet that the make up of that contingent is the direct opposite of the stat above…
And humour is the best medicine.
At the risk of inflaming the Trump-ites on this page, here is my latest post “THE DONALD HAS SCORED REDUX”
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/the-donald-has-scored-redux
Re
“There have been a few skirmishes here and there but not to any great degree.” Probably news to the families of the two dudes rifleboy murdered. – Garth
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Garth, the intense division in the U.S. right now is (in my opinion) as extreme as it has been since their civil war in the 1860’s. It’s hard to believe that Americans have let politics divide them to this degree but it appears to be so. They are no longer thinking as ‘Americans’ in one cohesive unit. They are very much split on angry political lines. I fear for them, I really do. Now is not the time to be contemplating a trip or a winter in the U.S.A.. I don’t want to sound like some of the other extreme posters on your blog. I’m just calling it the way I see it and it is looking very bad no matter who wins the election. I guess we’ll see in a few days. I hope I’m wrong.
#38 diamond Dog
Y’know, the untaught, unschooled, ill-educated, untutored, untrained, unread, unscholarly, illiterate, unlettered, ignorant, ill-informed, uninformed, lowbrow, uncouth, unsophisticated, uncultivated, uncultured, unaccomplished, unenlightened, philistine, benighted, backward, vulgar, simple, rude, dullard, handicapped, slow, dim, thick, special, challenged crowd.
…………………………………
This is YOU!
Brother In Law sold his home at Speedy Creek, Saskatchewan (Swift Current). Never had it listed. He was with a realtor looking at an acreage, and the conversation Changed after she (realtor), asked him about his place. She called back next week with offer, Sold unseen to retired couple from BC. Crazy….now needs to move ASAP.
PB43
#24 Sail Away on 10.30.20 at 4:57 pm
Here’s the thing:
People crave drama. Just as humans have evolved a bodily need for all minerals in general circulation, we also have a need for the drama that comes with trauma…
What we can do is recognize fabricated drama and noodle out the opportunity.
*********
Thanks for the astute and interesting comment on chaos (manufactured or otherwise) and opportunity. Well written with an interesting secondary story – and not in a Grammarly kind of way.
M56BC
#50 Comrade on 10.30.20 at 6:32 pm
Found this gem on the BCBID today:
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ITQ-006331
Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy
2020/10/30
2020/11/09 14:00
Supply & Delivery of 7.62 X 51mm Ammunition (Kamloops)
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huh?! what’s their strategy with 93,000 rounds of ammunition. I have so many questions, so little answers about this. lol
…
I checked it out, yep it’s legit. That’s 186 boxes, not enough for a coup, but enough to stock conservation officers thru murder wasp season. .308 practice loads, tells me these folks take a few tries before they get on target. Oh, well, that’s government.
I like your positive attitude GT. I tend to agree. Next summer should look a lot better for the reasons you outlined.
#23 westcdn on 10.30.20 at 4:57 pm
One thing I knew in life was that small dogs owned by women disliked me.
My mother’s faith in me was unshakable though I did fail her, sometimes. My sister sent me letters she had written and there were very reveling – truly a classy women. For that, I will always remember her and carry her legacy forward – my wife did not care for her but she loved my father.
I turned out to be almost like him – quick to laugh and tell stories despite the hardship. We did have a tendency to fight with one another but at the end of the day I did want he wanted and with backbone – not without complaints. He had a tough love for me and gave me the courage to go on. For that I will not forget either.
Lets do the time warp again – I always liked the tap dancer and her ‘tude.
…
Yer posts are great dude… keep at er.. refresingly orginal
Americans love an underdog. I guess you just have to get your head around who fits the bill in that regard.
There’s a lot of ‘wilful blindness’ happening on both sides of the aisle from where I sit in the cheap seats.
But here’s a real horse race for you. With an underdog who won the hearts of millions. To set the scene……
“People were hanging from the rafters in the grandstand. Thousands more were outside the track, hanging from trees, standing on rooftops. All of America was holding its breath for this race.” At post time, Seabiscuit was 2–1, while War Admiral was 1-to-4 and the favorite. Said Laura Hillenbrand “Horse racing was in its heyday, and Seabiscuit was an enormous cult hero. He was the number one newsmaker in 1938, a star with the kind of magnitude you don’t see today. He was the horse from the other side of the tracks who became a champion.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVT2MPNCqgM
Don’t worry about your stock portfolios just yet. Between now and American Thanksgiving the ‘hatches will be blown’. Then economic reality will set in and everyone will realize what’s at stake. It will be like that last scene in On the Waterfront where the whistle is blown and all the longshoreman go back to work.
What a fun time to be alive
Nope., not waiting until Monday, scooped up quality assets today. Typically when everyone expect something to happen, the exact opposite occurs. Orange octopus takes it on Tuesday.
The beauty of socialized medicine is that it doesn’t cost anything.
When the oil revenue runs out you just print money and the hospital carries on as if no one is the wiser.
Also anything that is not lethal to you can and will be rationed. You need knee surgery, too bad so sad. That is what makes our system special. You may have paid a couple hundred thousand into the system but with no likelihood of being well serviced when you get to the institution. As a matter of fact you’ll be asked why you are there if you are not on death’s door.
The folks who don’t work have all the time in the world to bog the system down, unfortunately leaving little time to allocate to you. That’s the fair part of the system according to the socialists.
So keep up the rhetoric regarding the apocalyptic Keystone pipeline.
Hopefully Joe will do the right thing and refine crude from friendly places like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.
Maybe he can cozy up to the CCP while he’s at it. Stealing intellectual property is another one of those soft crimes that steals jobs but does not prevent the government from it’s main preoccupation which is to print money.
You should be furious that the price to fill your tank should fall by 50% when the barrel price falls by half. You’ll be lucky to see a 15% savings.
Why is that?
Hate to say it but a Trump win…why?
1. People who love Trump will vote for him and say nothing to pollsters.
2. People that hate Trump will vote Biden.
3. Trump gets the vote from anyone different that the two above as : Biden is senile and won’t last more than 6 months, You know Trump is an idiot but you know what your getting, Trump is a weasel and America loves con men, Trump is an A1 Bullshit artist.
Trump 2nd term named after a week fight….read it and weep, I am.
Noticed this posted by Bill yesterday.
Our travel rights…not even a year into this rollout.
Electric cars have not the range for 1/2 day drive out of town trips – charging stations are few.
Busses and railway services is almost cancelled; ditto airlines.
Remember, you are free to leave at any time!
Day 1 of the rollout they told is #stayhome.
Training us. Welcome to the global UN agenda folks, stay in your Smart City.
https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/10/28/proposed-tolls-vancouver/
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As I said look around. What you see is all there will be. No more infrastructure no more perks. Parks will be filled more with addicts and bums.
Only millions for ‘the homeless’ (aka The Poverty Industry – google this) and climate change will be handed out. But you still must pay more carbon taxes, energy audits (TBD).
Travel will become impossibly expensive.
Our global elites must be roaring with laughter from their mega yachts. They got us penned in like cattle. CV did that?
https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/vancouver-news/vancouvers-climate-emergency-plan-to-cost-500-million-2830582
I enjoy gin and these days, as George gammon says it’s stiff drink time…..everyone should take the time to watch his videos covers lots of macro, and has great guests. People, I am not sure how I can say this but you are buying horse dung fed to you from the media and government officials. I’m on the left coast, islander, very near Vancouver, lots of us came down with a really bad cold in March/April, lots of asians flying back and forth to China, we should have been hard hit, yet we have some of the lowest rates, hospitals empty…..why….because it’s the flu people, not because we social distanced or wear masks, well not until about 3 weeks ago.There are 0 empirical random control trials (unbiased)that show either does anything to stop a virus, what you hear from the media and our government is nonsense. You only need one viron to infect you, easily moves through cloth or surgical masks as they are many times smaller than the smallest space on masks, but if you read the insert on your mask it clearly states this. The mask is a symbol of your submission to the new world order, you have been indoctrinated into the cult.You live in veritable sea of bacteria, viruses, spores, microorganisms including dust mites but you can’t see them so you believe this garbage fed to you by the corporate controlled media, and the corporate lap dogs in our government. There are 800 million viruses per square meter per day, raining down on you travelling on dust particles and sea spray around the globe.In an arbitration case (2015)between sault marie hospital and the Ontario nurses association in a mask or vaccinate order by the employer, the arbitrator ruled in favour of the nurses, they do not have to wear a mask if the choose not to get the flu because the science shows masks do not stop viruses. Dr Fauci said so himself in April.The people who are dying of CV19 are frail and elederly who are at risk every year from rhinoviruses, flu , cold, because they are the end of their life. No where in the world has the number of deaths exceeded the expected number of deaths , in fact they are lower in many places, probably because we shutdown the economy. The PCR test used to detect the virus can detect very small fragments of rna present but it does not detect virulence, so you might have had cv months ago and still test positive.it is not intended by the manufacturer to test for CV19, go ask for an insert. Many argue if you have cold symptoms and test positive it does not mean you are a case…..a case is someone who is hospitalized as trouble breathing, currently very low numbers, rate of change of deaths are low, almost constant. Cases are merely a reflection of a panicked public having a cough and getting a test, as more tests occur, the infection fatality rate decreases….this is a casedemic, the most diabolical payouts conceived in history to achieve the Greta reset. Turner nation has it right……..you better stand up for your constitutional rights of assembly, person, privacy or you will lose them. They are the ones who funded hitler, had him on time magazine, many political leaders thought what he was doing with the Jews was good, it was a divide and conquer strategy.they are playing us, using our love for our fellow human to turn against us “anti-masker” vs masker, black vs white, antifavs proud boys, white nationalists vs BLM, poor vs rich(not the .001 percent)today the non masker is the jew of 1930s Germany and soon it will be those who refuse to take a vaccine yet to be shown safe and effective. CIMA recommends to boost your immune system with vit d3 4000iu ,500-1000mg vit. C 1-3 times per day , zinc 20mg per day. Oh and tell everyone to not take the test unless they need to go to hospital, and we will soon see this psyop scamdemic come to an end, unfortunately I fear it is harder to convince you that you have been fooled, than to fool you. Please remember those who can convince you of absurdities can make you commit atrocities. social distance that….ok now it’s stiff drink time, of local craft gin.btw if you do not want to live in the dystopian future turner nation drones on about, do not use amazon, google, YouTube,Facebook, apple, Twitter….find small social media alternatives like minds or bitchute…and above all shop local, save and invest as Garth directs he is the man…love to all.
#70 crowdedelevatorfartz
Democrats winning the Senate will be tight but your odds are favourable. Good bet and good luck. If you win, enjoy the outcome and the rewards. If you lose, keep your word, and enjoy your time off.
#53 Faron
The Covid deaths are not all additive.
Comparing Statscan figures from February to July 2020 vs February -July 2019, the total deaths in Canada increased by 3765 while the Covid deaths registered at 8795.
Apparently deaths due to diseases of the heart went down by 4225 and malignant neoplasms (cancers) went down by 4595. These two categories have been trending upwards over the last decade, so it is likely that this decrease was just mistakenly reflected in the increase in Covid deaths.
Maybe it is inconsiderate and not empathetic of me to point out the figures, but isn’t it worse to be an ostrich and stick your head in the sand by being okay with public policy that is rooted in flimsy data models.
It will be interesting to see the political repercussions when people realize that certain politicians have wreaked enormous damage on our society and economy unnecessarily. Trust will be further eroded between those who govern and the governed. Unfortunately, I am skeptical that positive change will come out of this. I fear that certain groups who are now cheerleaders of the lockdowns and loss of liberties, will simply turn around, cry out about betrayal of trust, and use this to further damage our society and economy.
Sail away, you are back! where have you been? were you banned from commenting? I missed the Drama.
Comment #3 contingency plan: wait 6 more months.
As alpha blog dog, the honorable Mr. GT wrote; in the long term, things (covid and election) will blow over and life will be back to normal (or semi normal) and economy will continue to grow.
#74 Calling YOU out on 10.30.20 at 8:00 pm
Geez, trying to trigger forever Trumpers into some kind of entertaining response and all I get is I’m Trump university educated. :/ Tough crowd. No action, crickets.
@#86 Paul
” If you lose, keep your word, and enjoy your time off.”
+++
If I lose I still win.
The “anti Crowdie” posters who loathe Trump will have to live with Trump as Prez for the next 4 years and …. as Arnie sed…
“I’ll be back”…..in a month.
I have absolutely no idea what events will unfold over the next week or two. One thing I’m sure of is that Warren Buffet sees lower stock prices as a buying opportunity, and you should also.
# 87. Paul B
The moment I learned that the WHO created UO7.1 Covid 19 as a new classification to be used on death certificates around the world I became concerned.
After April 20 2020 the UO7.1 Covid 19 code was to be recorded as the primary cause of death if it was suspected that the Covid 19 virus contributed to the death of individuals seriously ill from preexisting diseases. This directive to health authorities around the world by the WHO meant that many deaths of individuals who were terminally ill from heart disease, cancer, diabetes or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease became reported as deaths from the Covid 19 virus.
This WHO directive resulted in a serious overreaction to a virus that presented a minimum risk of death to individuals with healthy immune systems.
The measures necessary to protect our most vulnerable citizens from infection could have been implemented at a fraction of the costs incurred by crippling the Canadian and World economies.
It is time for actuaries around the world to assess the actual risk of mortality associated with the Covid 19 virus before irreparable harm is done.
The Cullen Commission into Money Laundering in BC Casino’s latest tidbits.
When asked about a gambling patron who walked into a BC casino with $469,000 in $20 bills…..and bought casino chips….which they played ONE ROUND of cards and then tried to cash out 99% of their funds to receive a casino cheque….
The patron was told he would be refunded in cash, and it would all be in $20 bills…the patron took his chips and went to his hotel room.
This was the one way the Lottery enforcement officers tried to discourage suspected money laundering.
One other gambling client cashed $1.8 MILLION dollars over several days and when questioned by Officers….the Casino management complained that they were “intimidating” their valued customers…ie “Back off the high rollers”…
Essentially the Gaming/Laundering investigators were stymied by their own bosses, the casinos, the govt of the day, etc etc etc. because the money just kept flowing into ….”The Vancouver Model”
Oh when oh when will former Liberal Gaming Minister “Rich” Coleman be testifying?
I’ll bet Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Franklin, Henry, Paine and the other founding fathers of a great nation never thought it would come to this; but the constitution they wrote will prevail. There will be someone in the oval office in January and life will carry on.
#83 Billy Buoy on 10.30.20 at 9:00 pm
Hate to say it but a Trump win…why?
1. People who love Trump will vote for him and say nothing to pollsters.
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The new conspiracy theory circulating in the alt-media is that Trump supporters won’t answer poll questions because they are unconvinced the pollster is legitimate and might be some sort of antifa target acquisition effort. Even Michael Moore is out there saying the polls are wrong, and the last thing he wants is for Trump to win.
Nov. 3rd will be interesting indeed. I’ve got my popcorn, butter, and seasoning all stocked up and ready to go.
In other news Walmart pulled all its’ guns and ammo from store shelves in anticipation of riots on Nov 3rd and 4th, but has since recounted and put them back on display in areas they deem to be unlikely to be hit by riots. So in red states. That is where they did most of their sales anyway. But many other businesses are boarding up like a hurricane is coming. What a world.
Target has announced that several of the stores they operate that got looted will be permanently closed. The unstated reason for this is the same one many of the single proprietor businesses that were torched will never reopen: Insurance rates just went way up.
This descent into anarchy is going to have wide ranging implications.
I say Nov. 3rd 2020 is going to be Nov. 3rd 2016 all over again. Nobody who didn’t vote for Hillary is going to vote for Biden.
“sitting president refuses to accept the results of the popular vote” That’s rich. And (too) often repeated by the proggy comentators. It was high ranking Democrats who first came out to advise Biden not to concede on Nov 3 “in any case”. They know why. And who will declare the winner of such an irregular election in your opinion.. CNN? Sure it will go to courts and why not, how does that represent a loss of credibility? If anything it was the repeated attempts through the last four years to unseat a legitimate president that did the damage. Plus all the attempts to change the rules and the gross interference of the media. My guess is, it’s the last time this circus gets played in front of the world and the president will no longer be elected through direct vote, but will be named by the Congress instead.
#10 James if you can’t beat em then join em.
On the back end most agencies and many businesses use Palantir. PLTR.US
A globalists stock -it’s partly how they are controlling us. But you are free to leave at any time. Any time!
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/30/tech/palantir-ipo/index.html
Palantir, the controversial data company, makes its Wall Street debut
#66 truefacts on 10.30.20 at 7:29 pm
Using postal voting allows the potential for fraud. Will fraud happen – I don’t know, but why use a system that undermines the faith people have in the system?
Going to a poling station, marking your “X” and dropping it in a ballot box seems safer.
It’s a pandemic. Did you hear about it? In any case there is no evidence of mail ballot fraud, says the FBI. Sounds legit. – Garth
——————
Also, not so sure if in person voting is safer.
In Michigan you are allowed to take firearms into the polling station.
#32 sail
“And money’s a fabrication. It has to be: the earth is a closed system. It’s not like money came from somewhere else.”
I agree… a $10 bill is really only worth the paper it’s printed on if we didn’t all agree that the value is ten dollars.
The USA hit 101,461 confirmed cases today, first nation to hit 100,000. America first. Winner winner chicken dinner, just in time for the election. 988 dead only today, but that will soon change. 2 weeks ago, 60,000 daily’s were more normal and viral loads of infection were lower than now going and going into flu season. That’s all rear view mirror, now.
December is shaping up to be a gruesome month for fatalities, what, with the higher viral loads of infection and the numbers coming. Hospitals should become overrun soon in some states now and governors will be forced to act. What an epic fail.
#58 Penny Henny on 10.30.20 at 6:59 pm
#31 Faron on 10.30.20 at 5:16 pm
#17 Sail Away on 10.30.20 at 4:39 pm
Remember the Brexit secession referendum? Nothingburger then, nothingburger now.
—
Thanks Nigel,
Tell that to the GBP or the FTSE.
FTSE100: June 23rd, 2016 to Jan 2020 highs: + 25%
IEV (europe ETF): June 23st to Jan 2020 highs: +32%
GBP lost 1/6th its value during the brexit campaign and following months.
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Short term pain long term gain.
They want control of THEIR country, more power to them.
————–
Only time will tell.
Cadbury will probably come home from Poland.
Sweet deal.
#16 TurnerNation on 10.30.20 at 4:37 pm
It’s odd how this virus and the lockstep reaction to it is only destroying the fabric, psyche and economies of the FIRST World countries. How does it know….
That ‘First world country’ is a nostalgic memory from a past long gone. Former relatively rich countries in South America have already walked that path, check Argentina and see where we are going.
It is unification of standard of living worldwide with a few safe islands and unfortunately we are not one of them.
#15 goldbug on 10.30.20 at 4:32 pm
No official gold standard for sure. That would limit the ability of the thieves to apply inflation tax on your labour. Also not enough gold at current prices to implement it.
Unofficially: absolutely. In different shapes or forms but retaining the purchasing power of your savings is left up to you at times when pseudo authorities fail.
It might not be primarily gold, but diversified investment in productive assets for sure.
You can recognize fraud generally when fraudsters keep insisting on their qualifications and demand for trust. Like ‘Trust me, there is no inflation’. Sure. We will see for how long that go on but I guarantee with a higher degree of certainty that we will witness extended period of even higher inflation and skyrocketing cost of living with this mad money printing with no economic activity except consumption behind it.
The very fact that the press prepares us with articles like why not be alarmed by the exploding BoC balance sheet is a proof of the problem, with the ‘be vigilant’ joke following it. Repeating mentioning of the ‘threat of deflation’ at times when cost of living goes through the roof. Insistence that inflation is good. Repeating 4 % ‘inflation’ target/meaning the artificial CPI joke with rates stuck at zero or even negative. Hell, why not?
It seems the sheeple takes it well, why not keep doing it?
Keep in mind: The average Joe is just useless labour at times of automation and outsourcing. What matters is the capital/read Marx.
Inflation will be most likely most notable in life essentials and necessities, including food.
The herd will pay for it as it always had.
The idea that artificially hyper-inflated housing market will somehow maintain the illusion of ‘recovering’ economy and the wealth effect from the past is just that, an illusion. But when there is nothing else left, you have to lie, that is the logic of the rulers.
You can put the trust in the currency that it deserves – 1/100 of a brick in moldy old shack or 1/10 000th of a square meter /1000 of a square foot in cold, noisy condo with ever increasing maintenance and property taxes.
The virus is real, just used as an excuse for the great theft.
Cheers,
#73 CalgaryCarGuy on 10.30.20 at 7:59 pm
Re
“There have been a few skirmishes here and there but not to any great degree.” Probably news to the families of the two dudes rifleboy murdered. – Garth
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Garth, the intense division in the U.S. right now is (in my opinion) as extreme as it has been since their civil war in the 1860’s. It’s hard to believe that Americans have let politics divide them to this degree but it appears to be so. They are no longer thinking as ‘Americans’ in one cohesive unit. They are very much split on angry political lines. I fear for them, I really do. Now is not the time to be contemplating a trip or a winter in the U.S.A.. I don’t want to sound like some of the other extreme posters on your blog. I’m just calling it the way I see it and it is looking very bad no matter who wins the election. I guess we’ll see in a few days. I hope I’m wrong.
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Ya I don’t know. I mean there are some streets in the US you just don’t walk down after dark, but that has always been the case. And the political divide does seem larger than ever if you follow the MSM or Twitter. But these are ad-revenue based organizations and they will generally post anything they think will get clicks and eyeballs, true or not. And then there are a bunch of university aged kids who think a riot is more fun than quarantine. But I don’t know if things are really as bad as they say they are for 80% of the population. I mean it can’t be worse than the divide between Ottawa and Alberta.
Trump is the lightning rod, not the storm.
And the winner of the longest paragraph contest is (drum roll)
#85 Spirited
#77 belly rubs on 10.30.20 at 8:24 pm
#50 Comrade on 10.30.20 at 6:32 pm
Found this gem on the BCBID today:
ITQ-006331
Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy
2020/10/30
2020/11/09 14:00
Supply & Delivery of 7.62 X 51mm Ammunition (Kamloops)
huh?! what’s their strategy with 93,000 rounds of ammunition. I have so many questions, so little answers about this. lol
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I checked it out, yep it’s legit. That’s 186 boxes, not enough for a coup, but enough to stock conservation officers thru murder wasp season. .308 practice loads, tells me these folks take a few tries before they get on target. Oh, well, that’s government.
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Here’s the link:
https://www.bcbid.gov.bc.ca/open.dll/showDisplayDocument?sessionID=1335956212&disID=46098843&docType=Tender&dis_version_nos=0&doc_search_by=Tend&docTypeQual=Itq
This is indeed interesting, for the following reasons:
1. A 7.62x51mm round is a NATO military round used specifically for military weapons. As bellyrub notes, it is a .308 caliber; however, there are some very important differences in casing thickness, head space, and ballistics between a sporting .308 and the 7.62. You would only order 7.62x51mm NATO ammo for a military rifle.
2. Although the ITQ calls them practice loads, there is nothing ‘practice’ about the specs which are lead, 149 grain, full metal jacket. That’s a combat killing round. Use it for practice, sure, but that’s just semantics. During my service, I could put a dozen of these in a pie plate at 800 meters with an M24. It’s a damn fine round.
3. Military weapons that use this round are the M1A, M14 and M24 sniper rifle (and M60 machine guns, but those would be belted, which these are not). All US weapons, all now banned for recreational use in Canada. Is the climate change branch now going to carry full automatic assault rifles and sniper rifles? Weird.
4. Kamloops is listed as the destination but delivery is to Victoria.
5. Why are military rounds to be supplied through a public bid? Weird again.
I’m going to “deploy” my month end cash dividend payments as I do every month as I have done every month without regard to what ‘play’ the Democrat ‘Resistance Theater’ will put on for the run to or the conclusion of the “Riot Theater” we’ve been entertained with the past four years.
We know it’s all political theater because from the onset we saw that the “antifa actors” were being hired online and on laundromat bulletin boards offering “radicals” to ‘ act up’ for $15’ bucks an hour. Uniforms included, some training, bus lunches and all the looted crap you could carry away. That’s public information, so we know the fake rage was preplanned theater, never public.
We know BLM was organized in the Obama WH. It’s been funded by a international riot impresario who set up a foundation for this. George Soros had the resistance going 18 minutes after a Trump took the oath of office. Again, all public information. Planned anarchy, not rage, fake rage, abetted by a fake media.
The globalists had a plan. It was overturned it ended by a vast majority of free individuals voting their conscience. If you have become emotionally involved, or think you know something, it’s likely you’ve been affected by the largest and most expensive brainwash propaganda campaign in history. You though WW3 was going to be a missles and machine thing. You’ve been duped. WW3 has unfolded over the last 4 years viciously as the leftist globalist forces fought nasty battles in countries you couldn’t find on a map prior to the battle for control of world spending. Yes folks, sadly it’s all been a leftist attack on control of who gets the money.
Climate Change propaganda, native rights, pipelines, black lives, sustainable wealth transfer, all weapons of war. Them against you. Trudeau is a commander, because he got voted in, not because he’s leading anything. But Canada’s political capital is a front for the globalist putsch from behind.
This is not an election, this is a war, make no doubts about it. There are people out there who want to control you to enrich themselves. Fortunately there is still a numerical advantage of persons who recognize freedom as the superior method of social benefit. God help us is the creeping left gains anymore ground.
#35. Thanks for sharing. IMO Orr was the greatest hockey player EVER. Such a thrill to watch a player with natural talent. Bobby Clark once said, “Orr is to good for the NHL.”
I think my odds to win a presidential bet of fine bottle of pinot noir have just been boosted.
Would you mind if I asked you a financial question in the M&A sphere? I just read the thing pasted below and it provoked a thought I’ve had may times in the last few years.
“Dunkin’ Brands, operator of both Dunkin’ Donuts and Baskin-Robbins, agreed on Friday to be taken private for nearly $11.3 billion, including debt, by Inspire Brands, a restaurant platform sponsored by private equity firm Roark Capital.”
So my question is, has the goal become to pay as much as possible for any acquisition and then brag about it?
Hmm… watching Scott Adams podcast from today and he just went of on a very unusual profanity laced rant. Taking out the swear words here is his point:
By calling Trump a “Nazi” in Biden’s most recent ad, Biden has admitted defeat, and really pissed off a lot of people. Scott’s logic: You can’t separate what you call the candidate from what you call that candidate’s supporters. This is far worse than Hillary calling Trump supporters a “basket of deplorables”. Biden just called 47% of the American population “Nazis”. How would you like to be called a “Nazi”? It is almost as if Biden is campaigning for Trump.
The “Nazis” will be out in full force on Nov. 3rd. Well done Biden. I never thought you were seriously trying to win.
The initial market reaction to the pandemic – a huge sell-off – was rational, and correct. Since then we’ve had a market that has been goosed by money printing and stimulus – but this won’t last.
Equity valuations are stretched, and the underlying economy is weak. I think it will take at least two years before we see all-time highs again.
Also pertinent to today’s post. A copy of a tweet from an American doctor who tweets often on the topic. 12.34 AM 31/10/2020
as I type this. Frightening.
“Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
·
1h
SOBERING: U.S. reports over 100,000 coronavirus cases in 24 hours for the first time ever. Smashes all time record. Not sure what time that was I took it from a retweet.
We have basically lost this battle. Not sure if Christmas is even saveable unless we do something drastic fast!
#COVID19”
#52 Penny Henny on 10.30.20 at 6:42 pm
#14 Faron on 10.30.20 at 4:31 pm
Hello Faron
You are seemingly very confident on which the way the markets will turn.
Good luck
—
Hi Penny.
Zero confidence. I started self directed investing in Jan 19. After suboptimal performance through April and May due to my own errors, I put those funds into a robo advosor B+D so I can’t monkey with them.
I put $1000 into a comission free trading account at end of August to see if I can beat the market. I’m good at countering losses, but bad at capturing upside. So far I’m ahead while S&P is down. But I’ll probably be too pessimistic on the upside when that happens. So, we’ll see.
#77 belly rubs on 10.30.20 at 8:24 pm
#50 Comrade on 10.30.20 at 6:32 pm
Found this gem on the BCBID today:
—————–
ITQ-006331
Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy
2020/10/30
2020/11/09 14:00
Supply & Delivery of 7.62 X 51mm Ammunition (Kamloops)
—————–
huh?! what’s their strategy with 93,000 rounds of ammunition. I have so many questions, so little answers about this. lol
…
Avalanche control you doofs. Jayeeeeeze.
Diamond Dog; We’re passed the name calling stage. Getting down to the short strokes. In 2016 the only guy on here that was positive the Trumpster would win was the Smoking Man. All the rest of us Trump fan boys hedged our bets. SM said the deciding factor would be wives who told pollsters they were for Clinton but voted with the husband. If for no other reason than to quieten the old man down so he wouldn’t grab a heartski. In 2020 theres a massive amount of kids voting. Like never before. Who has the most kids,wokesters or deplorables? Will they vote with their parents? Are they like their Trumpster voting mothers who tell little fibs to nosy reporters & pollsters? The kids are going to decide this horse race. As it should be. Its their world now.
The game has changed.
It’s no longer what the markets will do, it’s what the Fed will do.
My money is on continued interference.
Nov. 3 is setting up like a hockey rematch after a dirty shot took out the star player in the previous game.
The media is hyping it(that’s always good for ratings [you notice how polls always draw closer as the event approaches? It wouldn’t be ratings, would it?]) like the event of the century.
The game starts, bruiser one has a fight with bruiser two. No bench clearing brawls. No return cheap shots. No putting anyone in the hospital. A normal game is played and most tune out before the second period ends.
That should be the results from the polls.
On the streets it will probably be a different story.
@#38 Diamond Dog on 10.30.20 at 5:43 pm
Your summation of this all being a battle of turnouts – uneducated white males vs all-others i.e. sane educated Americans is without depth and really offers nothing.
I can only speak for myself and those I know.
The fact I have a college education and have voted Democrat in every election I’ve had the chance means nothing with regard the very real impasse I see my country at right now.
Our choices don’t seem to make much difference looking back. Both parties run together in a lockstep dance, and it’s easy to see the illusion of choice every few years as not making a great deal of difference. So, each election I cast my vote to the party that seems to be looking after the working class, the little guy, the disaffected.
There is no question this election, and it is so obviously Trump. And the more I see comments like yours, full of exaggerations alluding to Trump being the one apparently breaking all convention, trying to steal the election etc, and the fact he just doesn’t play ball like every other politician; I just feel like distancing myself more and more from the supposedly sane progressive left.
I saw Clinton’s impeachment attempt by the Republicans of that time as a weak and mean spirited attempt to derail a popular president. But watching the last 4 years of garbage and one-sided opinion just makes that pale. The collective drive by media, intelligence agencies, big tech, and your vaunted educated Americans has been a compete waste of time and energy.
And if he goes, so does the last bit of resistance to a massive framework of control, surveillance, censorship and of course war.
Yes by all means, count me in with the uneducated white voter.
More advance polling votes in Texas, than in 2016 total? Does anyone honestly for a second believe this means anything but a trump sweep? Oil state, gun wielding, borderline separationists? Texans are not voting Biden, IMHO.
33% receiving ‘collection calls’ in the US. With Canada unemployment double thiers you have to wonder where Trudeaus heading with his new unlimited debt anchor?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/30/why-your-next-text-or-dm-may-soon-be-from-a-debt-collector.html
Biden is toast.
uh oh…even Trump-friendly Rasmussen has flipped to Biden +3, from Trump +4 two weeks ago. Apparently the already-voted respondents are now entering their polling numbers
No wonder he hasnt been welcome on Fox this year
@#105 Sail Away
” Kamloops is listed as the destination but delivery is to Victoria.”
++++++
Training and or practice…?
http://www.army-armee.forces.gc.ca/en/rocky-mountain-rangers/index.page
I was back East a few years ago and went to a Mall.
When leaving I drove out the wrong way and had to pull a U-turn at the end of the street.
There was a lone building there surrounded by high chain link, razor wire and a guard in a van inside the perimeter. I noticed cameras everywhere. No signs on the building. Weird.
I googled the address when i got back home.
Seems it was a military Armory. Bullets, guns, etc,
In a commercial Mall setting….. close to the main Highway on the outskirts of the city.
I asked several people familiar with the area about it and they mentioned there was a gun range in the woods a few miles away.
#73 Mr Happy on 10.28.20 at 7:15 pm
Garth, I have been religiously following your stay 60/40 balanced and stay calm. I am still calm but …… I know I cannot time the market but would love an idea of when to pull the buy trigger….. before or after the US election?
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“This means if you have cash sitting around, deploy it. Monday, if you’re confident on a firm outcome on Tuesday. The week after, if you’re not.”
THANK YOU GARTH!!
@#121 Reximus
Judging by the historic numbers of pre election voters and mail in ballots for the 2020 US election AND the extremely divisive nature of the candidates.
I think a lot of people that dont normally vote are doing so this year.
I also think that a lot of Republicans are holding their noses and ( to avoid family, friends and business conflicts) quietly voting Democrat for the first time in their lives.
A Democrat sweep.
Vote 2020…there are millions this time around who won’t bother and won’t stand the line at designated voter precincts. End of story.
RIP James Bond!
Looks like Goldfinger’s chances just improved on Nov 3rd.
Re: ammo mystery
My military-connected buddy said the Rangers now carry 7.62×51 Tikka bolt actions, so the 19,000 rounds could be for them.
Canada military has a single-source munitions supplier, though. For what possible reason would the gov’t be requesting public quotes for munitions? At very least, there would be chain of custody concerns. Still weird.
“Apparently deaths due to diseases of the heart went down by 4225 and malignant neoplasms (cancers) went down by 4595. These two categories have been trending upwards over the last decade, so it is likely that this decrease was just mistakenly reflected in the increase in Covid deaths.”
Traffic fatalities in the city of Toronto are down 41% year to date versus the same period last year. Extrapolated countrywide, that’s about 750 fewer deaths for the year. Influenza deaths will be down this year, as will drownings.
The number of people willing to publicly opine that they’re better informed than their nations’ top epidemiologists is a continual source of amazement to me.
It’s true that the volatility is a result of temporary uncertainty. I don’t really get why, exactly.
Once the election’s over, at least the country will settle down, to the extent that it can “settle”. Either way, though, the markets will stabilize. At worst, they’ll stay the course. At best – if the Democrats win – the markets will do better (as they have historically).
The biggest mystery to me, given how desperate the Dems are to remove the super narcissist, is how could Biden be the best that they could come up with? Really?
#128 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit
A decrease in traffic deaths is to be expected when you shut down an economy and people work from home. A decrease in deaths due to cancer, heart attacks, and respiratory diseases is unexpected…..so I missed your point, unless it was to say that you don’t think there is room for any second opinions when looking at data that doesn’t fit the official narrative. BTW, there are plenty of epidemiologists that have also pointed out that the policies and models are flawed for Covid and have provoked an over-reaction.
#127 Sail Away on 10.31.20 at 10:14 am How about they are trolling for weird suppliers?
Victorian skiing is not in the sights.
My mistake taking 51mm as the diameter.
But you guys are still insane. If something nefarious was under way would it be on BC bid? Why dont you just contact the section that put out the rfp?
This place is bat sht crazy.
Re: #90 IHCTD9 on 10.29.20 at 7:34 pm
#24 Ace Goodheart on 10.29.20 at 3:47 pm
#188 IHC TD9-
Re: access through the glove box- that is exactly how I did it. The glove box hinges can be popped out at each side with a little tab and the box swings down, giving you this large opening to work in.
I still couldn’t see what I was doing directly but I could prop an old round bathroom mirror in there and it was as clear as day.
Two little torx screws and a locator pin. Job done in less than 10 min
– ———
Sweet! I see a flashlight and mirror in my future. It’ll for sure take more than 10 minutes in my case, but I think an hour might do it. Beats the heck out of a 4 figure repair bill.
Ps – thank-you for getting my handle correct!
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Just for fun I disassembled the little black actuator box to try to diagnose the failure.
Turns it it is a pretty interesting design. It is a three gear reduction set, with two double gears (input and intermediate) and one final gear (to drive the input shaft on the recirculated air box).
The gears are set up in an “L” shape, with the centre drive gear taking its input on the top, and transferring it to the final drive on the bottom.
The design is weird, and I think it is flawed as the centre gear sits at the base of the “L” pattern, meaning it has uneven load applied to its shaft basically all of the time.
When I applied pressure to the centre gear shaft the source of the failure became clear. The shaft pivot bearing (a plastic hole in the actuator box) is worn out on the side that gets all the load.
I think these things are going to be an ongoing premature failure problem where ever they have been used. You are not supposed to have a gear shaft that gets all its load from one side. Of course, the bearing is going to wear out (especially when it is made of soft plastic).
I can see a lot of $1150.00 repair bills in everyone’s future here.
I wonder if these things are designed on purpose to fail, or if this is just some stupid design that no one thought out.
As a kid designing go carts, we even knew that you don’t put uneven load on your shaft bearings.
This is really quite epic. I suppose they put these things in lots of vehicles.
He(or she) did it again…stole my name!
Be advised as I am a victim of identity theft, I am not responsible for anything somebody called “Phil”…”Real Phil”…or “Back-fill” for that matter, says, from now on!
Is that you TurnerNation?…I’ll bet it is!
#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.30.20 at 10:44 pm
The Cullen Commission into Money Laundering in BC Casino’s latest tidbits.
~~~
Oh when oh when will former Liberal Gaming Minister “Rich” Coleman be testifying?
________________
Dream on! Coleman is almost as teflon-coated as Trudeau! I would love to see him and Christie be forced to testify though.
“the VIX – which measures how many Tums, per trader, are popped on the world’s major stock exchanges, divided by quarts of gin consumed.”
I spit out my coffee laughing — bravo!