Alphabet soup

V, K or just Limp? What’s the economy doing? Where’s it going? When will this dogawful nightmare be over?

Apparently this all depends on you.

Rockstar bank economist Benny Tal told a private Toronto audience a few days ago that two-thirds of the economy is in a V-shaped recovery. Things were good for investors in February, in other words, then turned to crap, and now they’re great again. These are the folks taking advantage of cheap money to buy houses and vultch distressed properties.

Yes, this group also contains all the lucky souls with B&D portfolios. Stocks crashed in March as Covid came to town. They recovered fast when government and CB money spigots opened. Today markets are floating around record highs, looking forward to a vaccine and global recovery to power higher.

But another third of the economy is stuck in an L, limping badly, existing on CERB and other government pogey in a personal recession that could last for a year. Overwhelmingly they’re in low-paying occupations, which account for 80% of the jobs the bug ate. Restaurants, entertainment, hospitality, travel, admin support, property maintenance – all decimated.

And this brings us to the K (for Korona) reality – a K-shaped world in which people with assets, jobs and borrowing power are feeding off the virus, while others are just infected and falling. As this blog told you would happen when the mess started, the ‘rona has exacerbated our wealth divide. Financial portfolios have repelled the recession. Real estate values have inflated. Jeff Bezos, Zuck and all the Google, Netflix, TikTok dudes have added to their billions.

Wealthy people can access capital which these days is virtually free (1% mortgages, bond yields collapsed). They’ve been throwing a lot of that at the real estate market, responsible for jacking prices by 25-40% in less than a year in most markets.

Worse, they’re spreading it around. From Burlington to Halifax, Kamloops to Nanaimo, Barrie, Moncton and Guelph, secondary and tertiary housing markets are as nutso as the GTA or YVR (now bright orange again). The WFH, nesting, anti-germ phenom has removed one more option aspiring homebuyers had by making the boonies just as unaffordable as urban dirt.

Our central bank printed hundreds of billions and gave it to the government to hand out. Meanwhile it spent $5 billion a week buying up bonds, creating artificial demand to jack prices and suppress rates. The result was predictable. The price of assets – stocks, houses, bonds – has been swollen higher, enriching those who own them, while others sink.

That’s the K.

Listen to Pierre, a screwed Mill in Quebec City. “The people are going crazy,” he moans.

I am a 29 years old typical millenial and I would like to buy a house. We don’t buy to make money, but because we want a long-term place to live. However, I don’t think this will be possible with COVID19. I’m one of those lucky people that still have a job. WFH. I thought this would be a good moment during the crisis to buy as price should get lower… They are telling us that the economy is sick and that everyone is sick and that they don’t have money.

I don’t think this is true. We called to visit this house on Saturday, which is on the market since 3 days. The realtor told me, ‘we had 8 offers so if you don’t come visit in the next 2 minutes and push the price there is not a chance you get it.’

HOW IS IT EVEN POSSIBLE ??? 3 days in the market, 8 offers!!! We are in quebec city which basically has had no tourists since March, no restaurants, no gyms and people are capable of doing bid wars on a house?? I just can’t believe what they told me. I also can’t believe that people can buy houses that fast and go to bidding wars during the biggest crisis since 2008. Quebec is only about 700 000 souls…

I hope you have some good words for me so I can find the courage to continue to search for a house… How am I supposed to compete with this?

Pauvre Pierre. C’est dommage.

The best advice, whether it’s in Quebec or Kelowna or Kits, is to wait. Ditch the FOMO. People are insane, gorged out on cheap cash, swallowing Herculean dollops of debt, gambling that this world will reward the risk. But it’s unwise. The last eight months were not normal. Nor do they frame what’s coming.

Only a third or so of the 800,000 little beavs who stopped making home loan payments when the virus hit have resumed payments. That mortgage deferral cliff still looms. Some giant corporations (a certain airline comes to mind) are wobbling on brink of insolvency. The virus has roared back worse than in the Spring – globally. It’s entirely possible a President Biden might lock down the US economy for a spell in January if daily infections top 100,000 (now at 80,000). Central banks and deficit-addled governments will be called upon to push even more moolah into staggering societies going into 2021. Assets values will inflate further. Why would you want to compete in an environment like this?

Reality, of course, will return. It always does. Debts taken on when rates are low and emotions are high have a way of turning into regrets. When central banks remove punch bowl, it all changes. We get an S economy. Yes, full of suckers.

$     $     $

Speaking of letters, WFH is now part of the lexicon. But as blog dogess Carol warns, this work-from-home thing can have a nasty bite…

I work for a global chemical company. Just heard from one of my coworkers that the company is planning to move most of the WFH jobs to a shared service centre in Uruguay. If the work can be done from home why bother paying larger salaries. There are educated resources in countries that are paid a lot less. I made a trip down there in 2017 when we moved finance positions there. Lots of large corporations are doing this.

128 comments ↓

#1 BillyBob on 10.25.20 at 2:19 pm

“Some giant corporations (a certain airline comes to mind) are wobbling on brink of insolvency.”

Maple or teal? I honestly don’t know which one you’re hinting at.

#2 KNOW IT ALL on 10.25.20 at 2:21 pm

The CRASH in RE and Stock markets will be epic!

Tree’s don’t grow to the sky.

Cash-out, Cash-up, and be patient with your shopping list in-hand.

Unfortunately this is what the backbone of the current capitalist system is made up of – a bunch of greedy SUCKERS.

#3 Leftover on 10.25.20 at 2:25 pm

President Biden will also raise taxes and cut military spending, which he has ample room to do, and thereby lower the deficit to GDP ratio. He’ll look like a hero.

We don’t have that luxury in Canada. That means that the bond market will exact its revenge by pushing up interest rates on CAD debt.

It doesn’t have to move much to create a lot of distress for debtors, be they individuals or governments. 2021 could be a very difficult year.

#4 Flop... on 10.25.20 at 2:31 pm

I am weathering the current storm as best I can.

I am down two holidays and an elective surgery, so minus 3 on that side of the ledger.

On the plus side I have continued to work throughout and will make some extra bank, probably my personal best for a year.

A higher savings rate for the foreseeable future will probably help me down the road as I look to put some off the extra into unregistered investments.

Probably no upcoming Xmas holiday or Spring Break next year to look forward to until the quarantine is shorter than the actual holiday taken.

I am on the line waiting for some positive news.

Please hold.

This year will probably end up being a wash.

A wash your hands kind of year…

M46BC

#5 Bill on 10.25.20 at 2:43 pm

HOW IS IT EVEN POSSIBLE ??? 3 days in the market, 8 offers!!! We are in quebec city which basically has had no tourists since March, no restaurants, no gyms and people are capable of doing bid wars on a house??
——————————————————
I’d go out on a limb and say these guys are idiots.
Inspection anyone?! Guess that don’t matter when your likely making the biggest purchase of your life….
No wonder 1/2 or more of their country is up to their ass in non productive debt. That’s why there are the rich and the poor.

#6 espressobob on 10.25.20 at 2:46 pm

I guess it’s human nature to look for the worst in things. The definition of being a drama queen. Love this mindset. Tend to profit from it over and over again.

Some things never get old.

It’s good to be a contrarian.

#7 SoggyShorts on 10.25.20 at 2:47 pm

#45 Karlhungus on 10.24.20 at 10:23 pm
Ryan
Maybe you misunderstood, I’m not saying albertas economy affects anything. The US economy could be booming – what difference does that make to me as an Albertan if the Alberta economy is in the gutter.

*************************
It all depends on how diverse your portfolio is. If your cash flow, net worth & investments consist of just a job & home in AB, then obviously the S&P500 doesn’t impact you as much as the local economy.

However, once you expand, and have a balanced globally diversified portfolio, then local issues matter less and less.

#8 Pete on 10.25.20 at 2:59 pm

I want to believe what I read, but I just know everyone taking on huge debt will be saved by the government and eventually be miles ahead of diligent savers.

#9 Viking Vagabond on 10.25.20 at 3:01 pm

What is so special about Canada?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hsiDAwNtqQ

#10 We Deserve A Happy Ending on 10.25.20 at 3:07 pm

Join Reverend Payton’s music video:
“We Deserve A Happy Ending” . Watch a summary of the year 2020 (so far) come through the door

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7RopOgsh5c

#11 Faron on 10.25.20 at 3:08 pm

#2 KNOW IT ALL on 10.25.20 at 2:21 pm

Cash-out, Cash-up

Nope, stay invested, hedge where appropriate, weather the dips and absorb the steady rise.

Espressobob, how’s the StarLink working for you?

#12 akashic record on 10.25.20 at 3:09 pm

“But as blog dogess Carol warns, this work-from-home thing can have a nasty bite…”

Globalist leaders would never let that nasty thing happen to their domestic voters.

#13 the Jaguar on 10.25.20 at 3:17 pm

@#1 BillyBob on 10.25.20 at 2:19 pm

Maybe he means Porter or Sunwing. How big is a ‘giant corporation’? Gerry Schwarz and Onex own the Teal one. Oh dear. I shouldn’t have brought up Onex, which reminds me of Nigel Wright. Now I’ll start sobbing again over the way Nigel was treated…..

#14 Bill on 10.25.20 at 3:17 pm

Garth your bang on in my book.
The bugs wake will will be far reaching.

“Just heard from one of my coworkers that the company is planning to move most of the WFH jobs to a shared service centre in Uruguay.”

Like I said in prior blog. The biggest telecom firm in Canada shoveled 1,000s and 1,000s of jobs to the cheap seats in foreign countries long time ago. They work harder, rarely whine or take sick days..ect ect. win win for the corp.
You can thank VOIP, super duper fast fibre (cheaper comm) for that. More to come.
You need think outside the box. ie
If I was a restaurant owner going down I grab a food truck. Low overhead is the key there.

#15 FerrisWheel on 10.25.20 at 3:19 pm

#3 – It doesn’t have to move much to create a lot of distress for debtors, be they individuals or governments. 2021 could be a very difficult year.

I’ve heard this for years on this blog. Never happened and never will. Stop dreaming.

I am without home and in my mid 50s. Been waiting for over two decades for a correction. Not happening. As our CAD currency erodes in value, home prices will continue rising. Stop Dreaming!

At my age, I give up and will pay 1 million for a home I could’ve Bought at less than 200K in 1990s.

C’est la vie!

#16 mike from mtl on 10.25.20 at 3:23 pm

#5 Bill on 10.25.20 at 2:43 pm
HOW IS IT EVEN POSSIBLE ??? 3 days in the market, 8 offers!!! We are in quebec city which basically has had no tourists since March, no restaurants, no gyms and people are capable of doing bid wars on a house??
——————————————————
I’d go out on a limb and say these guys are idiots.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

I would have thought that too, but remember Quebec City is not only a tourist town, like sleepy Ottawa is a government town. Lots of folks there who are completely immune to the reality of the rest of us ‘private sector’ dummies.

#17 akashic record on 10.25.20 at 3:28 pm

DELETED

#18 espressobob on 10.25.20 at 3:29 pm

#10 Faron

Starlink? I’m a klutz when it comes to modern technology.

Must be fossilizing.

#19 Dolce Vita on 10.25.20 at 3:39 pm

With time on my hands nowadays in EXPONENTIAL new cases damn virus Europe I sometimes watch the “Weird History” Channel on YouTube (occasional sardonicism thrown in with examining historys stranger moments).

They just came out with this today:

“How the Worst Periods In History Got Better”

Matters have been a LOT worse is the message [than covid] and that GOOD things arise from calamity.

…funny thing they didn’t dwell on in the video is that that RECOVERY PERIODS seem to take at LEAST:

10 years to centuries.

Which makes for a rather long and or tall “V” or “K” and as for “LIMP”, below A solution.

————————–

More Europe VIRUS PORN:

First Köln’s Pascha brothel goes bust amid coronavirus crisis. Seems they can’t keep a good thing down for long in Deutschland:

“Police break up fetish party with 600 guests”

Kinky Deutschland and Die Welt.

I liked it that the start image of the video featured lots of hand sanitizer and as for the things hanging on the wall, I leave that up to your imagination (or common household implements as the case may be).

https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article218530854/Corona-Regeln-Polizei-loest-Fetischparty-mit-600-Gaesten-auf.html

————————–

PS:

Today was:

WORLD PASTA DAY (refuge food)

Oddly, not celebrated in Italia (every day can be a pasta day here) and an amazed Italia that the rest of the World celebrates this:

https://www.repubblica.it/sapori/2020/10/24/news/world_pasta_day_2020_si_celebra_il_cibo-rifugio-271744936/

Mangia, mangia…

#20 Bill on 10.25.20 at 3:40 pm

#2 KNOW IT ALL on 10.25.20 at 2:21 pm
——————————————–

Foolish move totally. No guarantees in that.
Never cash out as the majority are always left behind in most markets.
When things get squirrelly I squeeze some profit off. Last Feb I did cash up 90% on my port. but I have good indicators..Can’t share sorry. In March I backed the truck up.
Never be out of RE…..Just accumulate cash flow gigs in good locations = good debt.
I work from anywhere I want “WFA”

#21 zoey on 10.25.20 at 3:44 pm

Sure 80% of the jobs hit could be on the lower pay side…but the other 20%, like pilots, airline workers, small business owners that were doing well. These jobs and their contribution to the economy and GDP cannot be ignored. Of the jobs not hit, how well are their companies doing ? There’s huge downside potential, and now a second wave.

If you look at RE, the truth of whats happening in any given region is there on “some” sites, where as some other sites like Realtor.ca certainly does not want you to know of their handy work. If you search de-listed properties in the last 30-60 days you can see as plain as day which houses don’t sell but more importantly the ones that have been re-listed by agents with lower prices multiple times with a new MLS number. They seem to start with an opportunistic price and eventually languish for a month only to drop the price…and then again. Some I’m following are just not selling. So sure some houses may be bid up but don’t think its all houses, thats just not happening as the media would have us believe. Another 6 months to wait.

#22 akashic record on 10.25.20 at 3:50 pm

Joe Biden talk deleted.

Censorship always ends up pathetic. Never worked, never will.

Stick to the topic at hand. I am tired of you and your Trump obsession. – Garth

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.25.20 at 3:54 pm

Pierre.
Chill for a year and save more for a down payment.
Historic deficit spending by Justin will bring a reckoning in our economy.

Billybob….
Could Garth be referring to Westjet? Not huge by worldwide airline standards, but big for Canada…they seem to be “stalling” on takeoff.

Flop.
Save those pennies my Auzzi amigo. I talked to a friend last night who says the commercial painting biz is tanking huge. The paint supply companies are blowing out paint, supplies, tools etc. at bar-goon prices for contractors. How are drywallers and carpenters doing these days?

#24 Oracle of Ontario on 10.25.20 at 3:56 pm

I’m 37, a software engineer for a large company and at some point I’d like to buy a house. I make $110k/year salary and about $20k/year dividends off of my investments (mainly ETFs and US Stocks).

The feeling when my dividend payments arrive each month or quarter is glorious. The longer the Cdn housing market stays nonsensical the closer I am to saying eff it to a house and instead just loading up on investments and retiring early.

I have to believe that <1% of Canadians invest in anything.

#25 Bill on 10.25.20 at 4:15 pm

#15 mike from mtl on 10.25.20 at 3:23 pm

Indeed….public sector folk never miss a paycheck even after buried I think….
I’m lucky to have gotten to where I wanted to be by age 52.
Monday I’ll cut fire wood rather then going to the gym :-)
If it pours I sleep in and then finish up the drafting of my commercial leases.

Note to all:
I would never get in line for RE or chase a stock… I observe that more folks on that side of the, trade the greater chance its nearing its end in the move. These things are dangerous to you financial health.

#26 kww on 10.25.20 at 4:17 pm

Is it possible, if one loses a bidding war, to see the names, etc., of the winning party, or is this kept secret?
Are details such as an expiry on a listing available? It just seems that bidding wars are not on the up and up.

#27 Flop... on 10.25.20 at 4:31 pm

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.25.20 at 3:54 pm

“How are drywallers and carpenters doing these days?”

//////////////////////

Hey Crowdie, everyone I know is busy.

It was a bit touch and go in April/May if we were going to get shut down by the contractor, but things opened up during the summer and it’s been full steam ahead ever since.

I was in a hardware store a few months ago and a clerk said their sales were up 40%.

Whether that was y.o.y or what I don’t recall, but nonetheless they were thrilled how things were going.

I normally do detached residential but one contractor I have been helping out does high end condo renovations which I guess could be shutdown if they decide they don’t want any construction riff-raff in the building as the numbers ramp up.

I currently wear a mask in the underground parkade and the elevator, once in the unit its business as usual.

Like I have been saying all along, next year won’t necessarily be any better, so while there is work I will go.

The surgeons office cold called me at 3:30 on a Friday in the summer to see if I wanted surgery on short notice on the following Tuesday.

I stated I would need to inform my wife as she would have to look after me for a while, when I called back they had given the slot to someone else.

Saw the writing on the wall for the year and decided to hammer down and continue to work, if they don’t shut down the surgeries again I will do it and rest over the Xmas holidays as we won’t be going anywhere anyway because my wife’s employer being the city errs on the side of caution for everything.

I have had so much disruption in my life the last decade or so, I seem to be less affected by goings on this year than those around me.

I just get my bum out of bed each day and go for it the best I can…

M46BC

#28 Spectacle ( front row seats) on 10.25.20 at 4:35 pm

An observation of recent election resilts/outcome, the Canadian corruption party is now getting reality handed to them ! About time.

Canadians voted the socks – woke – child Out.

Please, let the legal and political uncestigation ( oops, meant investigation…) process begin. Story time Canada, just wait to we hear what has really been going on behind our backs.

#29 MF on 10.25.20 at 4:36 pm

Carol’s message carries no weight in 2020 and sounds like it is from 1990.

Outsourcing is nothing new. Are we supposed to be scared? Lol that ship has sailed. The end result has been Donald Trump and rising populism all over the world.

So since this is a 1990’s issue, the data is already in. Mixed results. Mostly failures and inferior services. Some bucks saved at the expense of everything else, including negative public perception. The flip side is the many corporations saying the heck with it and re shoring.

I think it was MattL who said it best a few days ago. If someone can’t work hard at home and produce that is their personal problem, not a WFH issue. They are probably not good in the office either.. If companies want good talent they need to offer flexibility. Young workers have been dealing with outsourcing their whole career are prepared to move on to where they are appreciated, if need be. As employer strategies change and adapt, so do worker’s strategies. This isn’t a one way street.

MF

#30 not 1st on 10.25.20 at 4:45 pm

V shaped recovery for Canada? Where?

GDP is cratered while US will be fully rebounded by Nov. 1 update.

Debt bubble becoming a debt bomb and a currency hanging by a thread. Similar countries with out GDP to debt ratio hold a BBB to a B credit rating. Ours is an illusion that will come to bad ending in about 6 months time.

Looks more like depression here to me.

Oh and to BC, my condolences.

#31 Brian Ripley on 10.25.20 at 4:45 pm

“I work for a global chemical company. Just heard from one of my coworkers that the company is planning to move most of the WFH jobs to a shared service centre in Uruguay. If the work can be done from home why bother paying larger salaries. There are educated resources in countries that are paid a lot less. I made a trip down there in 2017 when we moved finance positions there. Lots of large corporations are doing this. Carol via Garth”

WFH is not the only labour cost reduction measure that chemical production corporations are making. There is now the pairing of algorithms with “automated flow chemistry system(s)”

ie: CHEMputers

Scientists make digital breakthrough in chemistry that could revolutionize the drug industry
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/how-a-digital-breakthrough-could-revolutionize-drug-industry.html

“At the Cronin Lab at the University of Glasgow chemists developed software that translates a chemist’s words into recipes for molecules that a robot can understand.

Professor Lee Cronin, the lab’s principal investigator, has designed a robotic chemist called a “chemputer” that can produce chemicals from XDL programs (“a chemical description language, XDL tells the machine what to do, as HTML is to a browser”), including the drug remdesivir, a FDA-approved antiviral treatment for the coronavirus.

Cronin and his colleagues represent one of many groups rushing to bring chemistry into the digital age.”

The key for labour is to become more productive so that fewer of us are required to work to supply the the needs of our whole community (Infrasructure, Education and R&D).

On my Household Debt, GDP, Balance of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment chart page I keep a live chart from TradingEconomics on Canadian Industrial Production http://www.chpc.biz/household-debt.html

Since the 2000 crash, there have been increasing lower negative lows in production (2002, 2009 & 2020) in Canada. Our net trade has been negative for 22 out of the last 23 quarters.

It’s time to reinvigorate investing in Canada instead of offshore production which my Foreign Direct Investment plot demonstrates has been negative for over 20 years.

The more productive we get, the more we can take care of each other (UBI etc).

#32 wallflower on 10.25.20 at 4:51 pm

I hear Adele did SNL last night.
And did not sing.

#33 Gpr on 10.25.20 at 4:51 pm

If timing the market is bad for stocks, the same should apply to housing markets. What you said about waiting might apply to cities and towns where the housing activity is usually lull.

House price in always demand markets like GTA have proven quite sticky so far (for houses with dirt). Unless the buyer pool dries up, I doubt the prices will (be allowed) to come down anytime soon.

#34 Victoria on 10.25.20 at 4:57 pm

I am on a facebook group that is discussing the Victoria housing market. Many people seem to think it will never go down “because everyone wants to live here”. Now everyone can WFH so why doesn’t everyone pack up and move to Victoria. The downtown is decimated. Everything is shutting down. Homeless everywhere. Still everyone in the whole world now wants to move to Victoria.

#35 Bill on 10.25.20 at 4:59 pm

Off topic but I believe that the biggest crisis of our time is clueless our
gov on just about everything….Finance to climate.
The climate change agenda is a tool being used against us. T2 is either fully aware and a traitor or a complete fool. The most dangerous phrase period. “We are the government and we are here to help”
This is worth reviewing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y564PsKvNZs

#36 MF on 10.25.20 at 5:00 pm

#29 not 1st on 10.25.20 at 4:45 pm

Currency hanging by a thread?

Lol against who? The us with their 24 trillion dollar debt? The UK with whatever trillion?

The tons of countries actively trying to debase their currency and prop up exports to the west?

Yeah no. I’ve heard this little threat on this blog so many times it feels like ground hog day.

When the economies of the world open up, and oil consumption increases, it’s highly likely the dollar will increase in value, actually.

Your attacks in Canada feel like a veiled attack on an individual political party more than anything else. Economics aren’t anywhere near a predictable science. No one knows what the future holds. Economics can only look backwards and study after effects. Anyone saying otherwise is delusional.

MF

#37 Coho on 10.25.20 at 5:02 pm

It appears those that have been able to invest and did it wisely are faring well. At least we’re all not going down in one fell swoop. However, as the saying goes, “First they came for the____, and no one spoke up because they were not____”. “Then they came for the____….” and so forth. The Ruling Elite want it all. It’s a small club, and if you aren’t worth billions, you’re likely not in it and therefore won’t be left alone.

There’s more to Covid than it being just another passing event. Sacrificing the global economy is not something the Ruling Elite would do out of concern for public safety. Any half-awake person probably realizes this. It feels like an investment by the RE to achieve an end goal. There are many predictions as to what it might be.
Mask wearing and social distancing will eventually give way to vaccines and God knows what form of restrictions will remain in place for the foreseeable future.

Doesn’t it feel like a situation eventuating to that being of a carrot and stick, the carrot being the vaccine and the stick being the restrictions and often heavy handed enforcement of them? We’re trading away freedoms for perceived safety when in fact civil rights and freedoms are the foundation of our security.

#38 Petulant on 10.25.20 at 5:06 pm

The cheap money is THE problem. Anybody at this time in history who is borrowing (interest rates, or not) is already in trouble. “Cheap money” is fantastic as long as there is consumer appetite to prop up a future.

It’s not “K” shaped. Its an “L” because main street is already pooched. The only people who are getting ahead are the ones that own the economy. They don’t play in it, they own it.

Can’t say it enough – for the vast majority, Neo-Feudalism has arrived. Nothing is real – even the money trough you invest with. It’s not real. It’s printed money against my, and my children’s, future.

Keep printing that money, print print print print….print, print, print…nothing is real. It’s all ordained by God, and his divine right for the establishment class to rule.

There is no more standard to judge wealth, besides who you are born to and what you stand to inherit.

There is blood on the horizon…mark this post, the world is going to get ugly.

#39 Don't Believe The Hype on 10.25.20 at 5:08 pm

What Carol warns here about offshoring certain office jobs to lower cost economies is what keeps me up at night. I have a staff of 14 under me whose jobs (including mine) can easily be transferred to a cheaper jurisdiction… Ug!

#40 conan on 10.25.20 at 5:10 pm

This is much worse than 2008. Our problems today are 2008 X ten + pre 1929 market conditions + Covid 19.
We need an entirely new way to deal with debt or we are ducked. It is not going to come from taxes. We need to get creative and innovative , or it is good night Irene.

#41 FreeBird on 10.25.20 at 5:10 pm

Carol prob won’t be last to email Garth as new realities of WFH (remotely) the media, this blog and readers here have commented on for months play out incl pay cuts. Global competition for more jobs will prob also be accelerated. Many if not most WFH jobs will be seen by employers (esp larger ones) as able to be done remotely from anywhere and justify casting wider/global hiring nets. This incl new students/schools worldwide competing for same jobs. Consultants face the same trend. My other half has an overseas client and uses subs who WFH to help. I’m sure other readers here do similar or know those who do. Time zones get worked around all the time. Its been a reality for a long time.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.bnnbloomberg.ca/salaries-could-drop-if-work-from-home-becomes-permanent-experts-1.1453965.amp.html

Eventually your biggest competition will be a robot…no matter the job. AI now completing it’s own coding:

https://youtu.be/Te5rOTcE4J4

#42 MF on 10.25.20 at 5:16 pm

#13 Bill on 10.25.20 at 3:17 pm

“They work harder”? “Don’t take sick days?”

-Yeah and not a source was seen for miles for this assertion.

Oh right it’s this poster. There are never any sources. My mistake. Just the usual internet memes rehashed into emotional outbursts packaged as facts.

Yawn.

Soon someone else will chime in in the comments with more memes around Venezuela, socialism, millennials, globalists, Sweden and all the rest of these terms everyone is tired of.

MF

#43 Toronto_CA on 10.25.20 at 5:17 pm

Outsourcing? Time zones, currency risks, communication problems, high turnover, IT issues, increasing costs = we shouldn’t be afraid of Bangalore, Manilla, or Montevideo (apparently! that’s a new one).

But people could see jobs shift to outside of Toronto/Montreal/Calgary/Van and into lower cost of living areas across Canada (hello Moncton service centre! bilingual AND cheap!) due to Covid-19 and WFH for a year. That’s certainly possible.

If a company’s best response to the coronavirus right now is to try a new offshore service center in South America?

Good luck with all that. My experience with setting up Accenture to provide transactional work in India is that the small successes were had by having their consultants come shadow our staff for a few months to take the knowledge back with them for training. Covid means shadowing is impossible. “Here train your replacement, thanks.” Good fun.

The management in my old firm who pushed for outsourcing to India got fired/left and eventually we moved the roles to Atlantic Canada. When the big Canadian banks tried to do this the media kicked off HUGE ten years ago and they had to backtrack from the horrible PR.

In London UK where I am now, the service centers for the City financial services are largely in low-cost Leeds and Belfast. Not overseas. Low cost areas exist in every modern country. And in that, I agree, opportunities to not pay alpha city wages exist.

As MF says above, personally I think the outsourcing fear is largely overblown and a relic from 20 years ago. It just doesn’t work as well in practice as it does in the sales pitch. Time will tell, maybe covid has changed that too, but I doubt it.

#44 Bill on 10.25.20 at 5:18 pm

Sorry on the flip flop on my prior words….dang handset I’ve got an old cheapo cause I’m cheapo.

Just a thought we are likely in a inflationary depression.
Somethings flourish while other go the way of the Dodo.
Stocks can rise nicely in this environment, being selective of course….IMHO

#45 Ministry of Truth on 10.25.20 at 5:18 pm

#9 Viking Vagabond on 10.25.20 at 3:01 pm

if you don’t know yet this is the order of importance in this geography :
– undefined types
– kids
– women
– dogs
– cats
– men

#46 espressobob on 10.25.20 at 5:35 pm

Oh right, the black swan event like the great depression is going to wipe out all your wealth. This is most amusing.

Society will continue to consume regardless of any threat.

It’s unfortunate many don’t study investing as a subject.

Seriously?

#47 millmech on 10.25.20 at 5:41 pm

#28 MF
So you do not think that these outsourcing companies are not learning from past mistakes?
Most good companies evolve and when they find the system that works for their customers it becomes a paradigm shift. All the sudden the business model pops up everywhere and becomes the new way to do business, just like how WFH has happened(did you see that coming last year or the year before?)
Remember how they used to say that about the Japanese products when they started to compete with North American industries. You remember the term “Jap Crap”, guess who now sets industries standards, the Japanese and they look down at our substandard products that we produce. To think that your job is safe, you could be very mistaken, a common Canadian trait!

#48 TurnerNation on 10.25.20 at 5:42 pm

–Because all of this is to kill local business and send them toward the globalist companies, like Amazon or Walmart or big firms in the EU. They’ll home deliver anything. This is not about public health it’s about squishing the old system flat:
…………………………………………………………
#68 NoName on 10.25.20 at 10:22 am
And just when i tought that it cant get any funnier, this…

No toster oven for you!

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/welsh-people-blocked-buying-non-essential-items-due-lockdown

#49 Stone on 10.25.20 at 5:54 pm

#40 FreeBird on 10.25.20 at 5:10 pm
Carol prob won’t be last to email Garth as new realities of WFH (remotely) the media, this blog and readers here have commented on for months play out incl pay cuts. Global competition for more jobs will prob also be accelerated. Many if not most WFH jobs will be seen by employers (esp larger ones) as able to be done remotely from anywhere and justify casting wider/global hiring nets. This incl new students/schools worldwide competing for same jobs. Consultants face the same trend. My other half has an overseas client and uses subs who WFH to help. I’m sure other readers here do similar or know those who do. Time zones get worked around all the time. Its been a reality for a long time.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.bnnbloomberg.ca/salaries-could-drop-if-work-from-home-becomes-permanent-experts-1.1453965.amp.html

Eventually your biggest competition will be a robot…no matter the job. AI now completing it’s own coding:

https://youtu.be/Te5rOTcE4J4

———

My job is early retirement. Please let me know how AI will compete against me on that? Will it by chance find me a job? Lol

#50 Nonplused on 10.25.20 at 6:15 pm

“I work for a global chemical company. Just heard from one of my coworkers that the company is planning to move most of the WFH jobs to a shared service centre in Uruguay. If the work can be done from home why bother paying larger salaries. There are educated resources in countries that are paid a lot less. I made a trip down there in 2017 when we moved finance positions there. Lots of large corporations are doing this.”

——————————-

This trend is not new. The war on the office has been going on since the PC came to town. My guess is that any jobs that get offshored because of covid were going to get offshored in the not too distant future anyway.

But my experience with offshoring is that it is usually more hassle than it is worth and the supposed savings never materialize as planned. You get what you pay for.

But it does make some sense for global corporations to look at wages in various countries. Chances are they have operations there already, so they aren’t really “outsourcing”. They are just moving functions to the centers where they are most cost effective.

————————————

More covid news. Apparently sleepy little ski towns all across North America that don’t usually pack up until mid November are already full to the brim. The stores and restaurants are all packed, and the streets busy. Hotels are charging peak season rates. How to explain? Seems like those with the money to do so have decided it is better to ride covid and the riots out in a more inviting environment.

————————————–

I think I went over the wealth gap enough yesterday so to summarize, when you exclude the top 1% like Gates and Bezos, whose new covid billions are mostly a wonder of mark to market fantasy, the wealth gap is more a reflection of age than any other single factor. Older people have had a lifetime of working to save, invest, and pay down debts. Yes, covid has kicked the young in the teeth, but there is no reason to assume post covid they won’t have the same opportunities their parents did. But they want to be born on the finish line.

For the young, buying a house was always hard. A new car was always out of reach. Getting an education was always hard. Getting a promotion was always hard. Getting wealthy always involved risk and sacrifice. But 45 years is a long time if you have a plan and you stick to it. You can do it.

So to the young out there that think the solution to their plight is more government taxation aimed primarily at your parents and grandparents, remember those laws will still be on the books when you get there.

#51 Tim123 on 10.25.20 at 6:27 pm

I am no longer surprised at the poor money management habits of people so the boom in Real Estate around the world does not surprise me. I agree that it is a market of haves and have nots. On a personal level, I have never done better. This pandemic has been excellent for the stock markets and traders are doing great. At the start of the pandemic, I never thought it would be the best thing to happen to the markets since the Trump election. I would wait to buy Real Estate for those people who thought a global pandemic would bring real estate prices down. It might still happen as governments pump less stimulus into the economy

#52 John on 10.25.20 at 6:28 pm

What do you expect since houses were going up all these years? And every single week we talk here how “just wait a little and you’ll see what a disaster is coming in the Real Estate market!” and that never happens. I remember saying to my friends in 2015 how houses were overpiced and prices don’t make sense and how I was looking like a fool even in the pandemic. So no, everythinh happens, happens for a reason. The people are smarter than we think here on this blog. We are the greater fools for not getting into real estate.

#53 looking up on 10.25.20 at 6:33 pm

BillyBob on 10.25.20 at 2:19 pm
“Some giant corporations (a certain airline comes to mind) are wobbling on brink of insolvency.”

Maple or teal? I honestly don’t know which one you’re hinting at.

————

Air Canada, West Jet and Transat will be fine. Sunwing may go back to their former business model of being just a tour operator. Porter probably won’t make it.

#54 Nonplused on 10.25.20 at 6:34 pm

#30 Brian Ripley on 10.25.20 at 4:45 pm

“The more productive we get, the more we can take care of each other (UBI etc).”

UBI is not necessary because people are incredibly creative in coming up with new ways to spend money. I have neighbors who never mow their lawn or shovel their snow because they would rather go golfing. Well, nice to be that guy but it means jobs in the yard maintenance business and at the golf club. And they eat out a lot too.

As society becomes more productive, it generally leads to more jobs in the leisure and entertainment
industries. Is that a bad thing? Does it lead to “wealth inequality”? Perhaps. But I went ziplining with my son a few years back and I thought the guides had the best job in the world. They get paid to zipline every single day of the season. Cost me $149 X 2 for a single ride down the course but hey YOLO.

But as I understand the economics of UBI, it will now be much harder for the zipline operator to hire employees and he will also pay higher taxes, so next time it will cost me $249 X 2. I’ll pass.

#55 Reality is stark on 10.25.20 at 6:49 pm

What is all the fuss about?
So they shut the economy down again. Who cares?
You can print money into perpetuity. If people aren’t working it’s no big deal. As long as they aren’t working in the USA we are no worse off than them (cogent MF style logic).
Distortions in the economy are of no concern. I don’t see how a $300,000 gift from your parents makes it any easier to buy a $900,000 home in Hamilton than the next couple trying to buy a house. So your income hasn’t increased in 10 years. What does that have to do with anything?
The whole thing is fear mongering. So corporations aren’t making money. You really think they’ll turn to outsourcing service jobs to reduce salaries?
Why would they try that trick? It might not work.
You are drunk if you can’t see that things are about to get much worse.
This country has a structural cost problem and we continue to vote in political parties that have no desire to be accountable to taxpayers.
Our dollar was equivalent to a US dollar not that long ago. What happened?

#56 Apocalypse2020 on 10.25.20 at 7:02 pm

10 DAYS TO GLOBAL CATASTROPHE!

PREPARE

#57 FriedEggs on 10.25.20 at 7:22 pm

I wonder how much rent will be at the isolation camps.
Great thing about men working WFH is we don’t have calluses and we are nice and soft.

Maybe Billionaire Guo will be able to shed more light on the darkness.

#58 FreeBird on 10.25.20 at 7:26 pm

#48 Stone on 10.25.20 at 5:54 pm
My job is early retirement. Please let me know how AI will compete against me on that? Will it by chance find me a job? Lol
————-
You outsmarted the trend so maybe you don’t need AI to find you one. Unless it was a forced retirement and I hope it wasn’t. Many aspects of AI concern me and this is one but it is reality.

#59 DON on 10.25.20 at 7:34 pm

#42 Toronto_CA on 10.25.20 at 5:17 pm

…In London UK where I am now, the service centers for the City financial services are largely in low-cost Leeds and Belfast. Not overseas. Low cost areas exist in every modern country. And in that, I agree, opportunities to not pay alpha city wages exist.

As MF says above, personally I think the outsourcing fear is largely overblown and a relic from 20 years ago. It just doesn’t work as well in practice as it does in the sales pitch. Time will tell, maybe covid has changed that too, but I doubt it.

*************

Outsourcing swung two far on the pendulum. Too many contractual changes in the way off tweeking daily operational funtions.

#60 cto on 10.25.20 at 7:37 pm

Airlines can go bust, larg corps can leave Canada, retailers can die slow death and entertainment and eateries fade into the dust, but … real estate is too big to fail. Canada cornered itself into housing as a replacement for everything that existed before. Housing and debt were the only thing floating the economy over the last 10 + years.
The things they will do to protect this sector will blow your mind!!!! Just watch it happen…Many who don’t own, are sadly on the wronge side of this equation…
Its too big to fail!!!

#61 DON on 10.25.20 at 7:50 pm

@MF

When jobs are sparse the employer is in the driving seat. Ask the boomers about The 80’s and the Gen X in the 90’s. The affects of this big recession still accumulating. Yikes! seems to be the global catch phrase. If construction slows down in the New Year we will have a problem…unless the infrastructure spending occurs right away…like shovels in the ground. Economic momentum is fleeting at the moment…the dominoes are seemingly lining up. At one point the consequences arrive even if they were predicted a decade ago.

#62 Two-thirds on 10.25.20 at 8:35 pm

Meh. Cheap rates blow asset bubbles, e-v-e-r-y-t-i-m-e and we are now as close to the zero-boundary as we have ever been. QE in Canada does not even raise an eyebrow and the BOC governor admitting that negative rates are not out of the question brings a yawn from all.

The ones that should really worry are the savers, financial-asset-heavy, or responsible citizens that live prudently. As stated with atomic-clock accuracy in this blog, the highly-indebted, financially-clueless are pooched, but they outnumber the responsible ones 9 to 1, and they get to vote so…

What do you expect will happen, when the 90% cry for help, seeing the 10% getting richer, the former’s questionable financial decisions non-withstanding?

“Fairness”, “equality” “social justice”, etc. for the 90%, at the expense of the rest. Until we are all the same. By new and ever more progressive and fair laws.

How can it be otherwise? Liberals gone 3-sigma left of the NDP, voters demanding a nanny state, and an economy dependent on consumption of foreign-produced goods, real-estate and low-value services. What ACTUAL wealth is produced in Canada now? FDI is gone, its resource economy, gutted; exports, negative, so debt is Canada’s new wealth, no other options are left.

How does this end with those with $ and assets keeping them untouched by others?? Whether by taxation or inflation, they will pay. Canada’s government is borrowing on the wealthy and poor’s behalf, remember? At the highest rate of any G7 country, with NO consequence.

(The loonie is actually up against the greenback!!!)

So, enjoy it while it lasts, y’all. Remember you can’t take it with you and soon, you might not even be able to take it, period.

Pooched. Equally. We are all in this together, remember?

Oh, Canada!

#63 NoOneOfConsequence on 10.25.20 at 8:41 pm

So today was cleaning up and found a receipt for some silver maples I bought in Nov. 2018. I paid $24.35 each.
The same dealer is buying them back for $33.85 each.

I’m no math genius, but isn’t this a theoretical return of 39% over 2 years? (Sell – buy)/buy

Does it stand to reason that they will continue to increase in value given the unprecedented stimulus thus far, and more to come?

Not trying to hump precious metals, more curious about how this stimulus affects hard, physical assets.

Also wondering if maybe I should sell them (10) and walk away with almost an extra hundred bucks now?

#64 robert james on 10.25.20 at 8:43 pm

Biden tweet from exactly one year ago warns US is ‘not prepared’ for a pandemic.. https://news.yahoo.com/biden-tweet-exac … 55917.html .. One of the problems with having an idiot as the POTUS as we are seeing now in the US..

#65 Nonplused on 10.25.20 at 8:56 pm

From yesterday:

#49 Phylis on 10.24.20 at 11:07 pm
#35 Nonplused on 10.24.20 at 7:24 p
Please add toxic batteries to your list.

Yes well obviously if it ever came to that. Right now we keep the old fossil fuel plants on standby, except in California where they just brown out. This is going to get very expensive because having plants on standby is not cheap.

#66 Nonplused on 10.25.20 at 9:02 pm

#51 Faron on 10.25.20 at 1:41 am from yesterday

That rant was complete garbage. Young people have always worked at minimum wage whether that wage was set by government or in the market.

And mark to market is just that. Anybody who has worked on a trading floor before can tell you what happens when a 95% confidence interval wasn’t enough. It isn’t money until you settle.

#67 Nonplused on 10.25.20 at 9:05 pm

#83 Faron on 10.25.20 at 1:45 pm

Germany is having the same problem California is. Only they have France’s nuclear to bail them out when the sun isn’t shining. Also very expensive electricity.

#68 Barb on 10.25.20 at 9:20 pm

“…This country has a structural cost problem and we continue to vote in political parties that have no desire to be accountable to taxpayers.”

————————————–

Likely the reason why I didn’t check who won the BC election until just before noon today.
Here we go again…the second time (since the 90s) that the NDP’s in for a second term.

Short memories, folks?

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.25.20 at 9:26 pm

@#27 Flop
“I just get my bum out of bed each day and go for it the best I can…”

++++

Good to see you’re still busy.

I’m hearing and seeing lots of big govt projects cancelled.
Airport Expansion, BC Ferries new ships, etc.
AND they are stuck with the multi billion dollar boondoggle Site C probably until the next election in 4 years.

I guess we’ll see how much marmalade the newly re-elected NDP has to spread on voter toast…

#70 TurnerNation on 10.25.20 at 9:28 pm

If hospitals are overwhelmed why is government throwing every public and private resource into building/expanding new ones, especially in light of an population that’s fast aging.
Instead they push testing , testing, testing and those numbers are solely used to destroy people’s psyche’s; and the economy; and freedoms.
This should be clear to all but the most brainwashed. Turn off your tee-vee; they do not care about your health at all

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.25.20 at 9:32 pm

#5 Bill on 10.25.20 at 2:43 pm
HOW IS IT EVEN POSSIBLE ??? 3 days in the market, 8 offers!!! We are in quebec city which basically has had no tourists since March, no restaurants, no gyms and people are capable of doing bid wars on a house??
——————–
First Rule of house hunting:
Don’t trust the realtors!

#72 the Jaguar on 10.25.20 at 9:39 pm

#53 looking up on 10.25.20 at 6:33 pm
BillyBob on 10.25.20 at 2:19 pm
“Some giant corporations (a certain airline comes to mind) are wobbling on brink of insolvency.”

Maple or teal? I honestly don’t know which one you’re hinting at.

————

Air Canada, West Jet and Transat will be fine. Sunwing may go back to their former business model of being just a tour operator. Porter probably won’t make it.

__________

Porter’s route map shows a significant number of destinations within ” the bubble” deemed a necessity by those four participating provinces. I guess the decision to bolt the doors and windows to outsiders ( even if they are fellow Canadians) has consequences. I wouldn’t want to see a brave little enterprise go down anymore than a legacy enterprise. I hope they can all hang on till the Calvalry rides in.

Makes me feel proud Alberta is conducting the pilot to test international travellers on airport arrival in Calgary with negative tests subject to a two day quarantine versus 14 days with follow up in 5 or 6 days. We can’t let fear straightjacket this industry….
Make that Calgary, not Alberta. Those hosers up in Edmonton would never have come up with such a courageous move. Checkmate.

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.25.20 at 9:46 pm

#30 not 1st on 10.25.20 at 4:45 pm
V shaped recovery for Canada? Where?

GDP is cratered while US will be fully rebounded by Nov. 1 update.

Debt bubble becoming a debt bomb and a currency hanging by a thread. Similar countries with out GDP to debt ratio hold a BBB to a B credit rating. Ours is an illusion that will come to bad ending in about 6 months time.

Looks more like depression here to me.

Oh and to BC, my condolences.
————–
Thank you.
Canada’s most popular premier just aced it.
What’s not to love?

#74 Garth's Son Drake on 10.25.20 at 9:48 pm

I keep my ear to the street and I am now turning from BULLISH to BEARISH.

This is in real time.

I am not saying the stock market is going to drop rapidly like in March but I see little upside until something significant to squash this virus happens ASAP. And it ain’t happening anytime soon.

Further: Garth, you have been telling people to wait since 2010.

The lessons I have learned is you act and act fast. Execution on anything is paramount if you want to compete. Why would you wait until assets inflate further? You like buying the top? You won’t see last year prices ever again.

Checked out condos lately? – Garth

#75 dr talc on 10.25.20 at 9:58 pm

TurnerNation may have been understating things, you wont believe London:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dd2-VY6roL0&feature=youtu.be

#76 Joe on 10.25.20 at 9:58 pm

Apparently prices for Toronto condos are sky rocketing again.

#77 Sucks being you on 10.25.20 at 10:07 pm

Je me souviens, Pierre…. Je me souviens.

#78 dogwhistle on 10.25.20 at 10:13 pm

#9 Viking Vagabond on 10.25.20 at 3:01 pm
What is so special about Canada?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hsiDAwNtqQ

——————————————

Just what this blog was missing, incel propaganda…

#79 akashic record on 10.25.20 at 10:34 pm

#22 akashic record on 10.25.20 at 3:50 pm

Joe Biden talk deleted.

Censorship always ends up pathetic. Never worked, never will.

Stick to the topic at hand. I am tired of you and your Trump obsession. – Garth

Wasn’t President Biden a topic?

I comment once in a blue moon, can’t even remember when was the last time I mentioned the T word. I am interested though in all things of Biden. Maybe more than you seem to be.

#80 Gogo on 10.25.20 at 10:45 pm

Working from home has nothing to do with outsourcingAsk the big banks :). It started before covid. It only accelerated this year. To fight this reality looks like fighting the personal computer back in the days. Not that I like it, but this is the reality.

#81 TurnerNation on 10.25.20 at 11:02 pm

#75 dr talc my UN Smart City is getting like that as the globalists again ordered businesses shut. For our health.
It will continue. Spain extended their ‘state of emergency’ until May 2021 as did Ontario. UBI coming in Q1 that’s the plan.

Toronto protests.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFnm7oQPDYhXA-JnXmCszdQ/videos

#82 Jane24 on 10.25.20 at 11:12 pm

Here in Britain we think it is amazing that houses went up 5% in the last 12 months rather than their usual 2%! Second personal amazement is that with all the Covid free money sloshing around and no-one spending money on holidays it is impossible to get a trade in or order any improvements to your house. I want new front windows for the cooler weather. First chap quoted Feb delivery and the second chap quoted next May delivery. Went with the first chap without seeing the actual quote. I just want new windows. Prices be dammed.

Very very strange times.

#83 westcdn on 10.25.20 at 11:14 pm

I face challenges because of my attitude.
I don’t know what the outcome will be. The rules have changed. I look and will be persistent.

The cv19 is starting to worry me. It is infectious although less lethal for now. The more “cases” does bother me as it will lead to more deaths. I say toughen up although I could be be dead wrong – give me freedom or death.

I have been building cash. I still like preferred but the like is disappearing. The pop in CHR was welcome but I want to see the offer. Gold prices are a funny animal -sell at 1925 and buy at 1900.

I am still an Albertan separatist.

#84 Employment on 10.25.20 at 11:21 pm

While the offshoring of jobs has had mixed results, one cannot refute the argument that those sectors in which automation and process control played a significant role in the successful running of a business also lend themselves well to automation. Steel mills are an example of this as are most types of manufacturing including cars.

One of the factors that plays well to automation is something that is an important part of the sort of analysis done through business process engineering. If a process is routine in nature, highly structured, has certain clearly established logical paths, and has a collection of knowledge that can be applied to conduct a process then automation can be used to good effect.

IBM’s Watson, an AI suite, has been used in medical diagnositics for some time and the range of applications is expanding. In my experience, during the last five to seven years I was working, I was involved in several projects where what was essentially an AI application was trundled out, unboxed, fired up, and its training began.

Essential to the effective implementation were well-defined processes, logic, a knowledge base to support decisions, and of course a team of handlers that included the people doing the work before automation was begun. A small team of boffins was usually scurrying around whenever there was a hiccup but over time, the application became accurate, predictable, and the former workers were either re-assigned, let go, or in a few cases were retained. Needless to say, what I saw in these instances made me very thankful I pursued financial independence.

For anyone whose job is WFH, if that job can be put into the mold of a well-defined process then there exists the possibility that it can be automated. I believe there is considerable overlap between the effort to successfully offshore and to set up an AI application. The same sort of thinking that the offshore workers need training and should have an optimized process is very close to what would be needed to implement an AI application. In my opinion, using past as prologue, an offshoring effort could well be a precursor to full scale automation.

If there is anyone here that does not think that the strategic thinking that goes into planning and implementing AI has not been rejigged (or is about to be) to take into account the effects of COVID-19 on businesses, I suggest you reconsider your outlook or begin in earnest to look for that quantum portal that will allow you to escape to an alternate universe.

#85 Morrey on 10.25.20 at 11:36 pm

#19 Dolce Vita

Cibo Rifugio

World Pasta Day 2020, the world celebrates! Including Italy or as you like to say “Italia”

Cibo Rifugio means a go-to meal one that is easy to prepare and that gives instant sustenance.

#86 Ronaldo on 10.26.20 at 12:37 am

A beautiful song sung by Ralph McTell. Very appropriate for these times. Makes one think how fortunate many of us are and how many others are hurting badly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiWomXklfv8

#87 Faron on 10.26.20 at 12:59 am

#66 Nonplused on 10.25.20 at 9:02 pm

#51 Faron on 10.25.20 at 1:41 am from yesterday

My rant said nothing about young people. I see people of all ages working entry level service positions that are the only jobs available to them. Globalization has put the market for labour into the global realm and has sucked wages lower on an inflation adjusted basis as has increased automation and other efficiencies. Open your eyes and look at some data that’s not from the Fraser Institute. There is ZERO argument in the US and to a lesser extent here in Canada that wealth/wage/worth inequality hasn’t increased in the last 40 years. Most generously you are naive, but I fear you are actually ignorant or, worse, willfully blind

Regarding your mark-to-market notion that you are using to claim wealth inequality is not a thing for god-knows-what reason. Here’s a link for you:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/050614/introduction-dark-pools.asp

Even if any large holder of stock wanted to sell a large block on the open markets, they wouldn’t tank the stock other than the SEC filing indicating lack of confidence in the corp. These people have brains and would bleed the shares onto the market in such a way that they got a decent price as long as there was sufficient liquidity in the marketplace. Sure, these people may not have all of their net worth in liquid assets, but cry me a river. If they need liquidity, they can easily use their ample credit. Read Garth’s post today for cripes sake.

#88 Faron on 10.26.20 at 1:15 am

#67 Nonplused on 10.25.20 at 9:05 pm

#83 Faron on 10.25.20 at 1:45 pm

Germany is having the same problem California is.

Oh, is that the problem where their economy is highly modern and absolutely crushing it while they also take on the challenges of climate change and at least address social issues like adults? Ha. Dang, if it weren’t for them utility bills, they would be the strongest economies in the world. Oh, wait, they already are…

Germany buying power from France uses this modern thing called a grid. If Trudeau wasn’t such a sell-out he would have used the money for the pipeline on improving the electrical grid in this country. As it is, BC sells its excess power to California in summer because it can’t sell it to other Canadian markets. Makes BC hydro happy, but wouldn’t that power better serve Canada?

Don’t worry, Alberta will have another oil boom. When it happens, your province and this country had better channel as much of that money into transitioning off of oil as they possibly can. Nuclear, renewables, whatever. Oil is best used as feedstocks for materials and it will always have a place there. But straight burning it is going to be the horse drawn carriage of our or the next generation. Within my lifetime country fairs will toodle out an old internal combustion engine car to amaze the kiddos.

#89 fishman on 10.26.20 at 1:17 am

not 1st, You mean congratulations not condolences. B.C. populists switch votes between populists on the right & the left. Reformers & Dippers. Skip the mushy middle. I prefer the right ones, but sometimes you gotta dance with the uglier one if your gonna practice for the dance off.
Horgan’s raised poor. Luckily a mentor showed up just when he was starting to get a little sideways as a young man.Worked in the pulp mills. Started out as a shop steward/activist in the powerful industrial pulp &paper & IWA unions when they rocked. The Dippers made the transition to public sector union dominance. Dropped the guaranteed vote representation from the trade unions at their leadership conventions. At first Horgan couldn’t make the cut with the woke SJW’s from BCTF & BCGEU. Too hot tempered; they drove him crazy. He’s matured. He’s a Chretien: underplays his strengths & will. Don’t worry your little eastern hearts out about poor old socialist B. C. We’l be fine. We’ll be holding down 1st. spot as most expensive, most desired province in Canada. Even after a couple terms on the good ship Dipper with Comrade Horgan at the helm we’ll still be the richest.

#90 sean on 10.26.20 at 1:55 am

There’s way too much debt that cannot be serviced. Including government debt, of course. Interest rates cannot rise. Forget about private debt. Governments cannot service debt at normal interest rates. End of story.

I am conservative with my savings but I don’t necessarily believe excessive house debt will be a problem for the debtors. We just need enough of it (and I think we’re past that point) to become a country level problem that government must solve. And because there’s also something called elections, MMT and BNI are practical choices.

Can’t service your house loan? Mortgage converts to a loan for life, government guarantees the remainder to the bank, you get BNI, the rest goes to the government, problem solved. Sort of. This has a reasonable chance of success for people buying RE they can’t afford. People have invested into this bubble for a decade and those who have exited or will exit in next few months are set for life. The rest of us are the fools. For now.

#91 Charles McCheese on 10.26.20 at 2:51 am

DELETED

#92 Mark on 10.26.20 at 2:57 am

Crystal Hanlan Tell that to all the dead kids who were POISONED by vaccines. And those who are disabled for life. Despite the intent, poison is poison. For the record, I am not saying all vaccines are bad and certainly not discounting the benefit for SOME illnesses, but we are grossly over vaccinated and no, they are not “safe”. If they were safe, vaccine companies would not demand exemption from liability. Vaccines are big business and doctors are not even trained on them. Look no further than an a vaccine insert to get a clear picture. You seriously can’t be this naive.

_—_———-_——_———-+——————————-

Feel for ya.

#93 Wayne on 10.26.20 at 3:18 am

Utter cobblers

The virus has roared back worse than in the Sprin…..if daily infections top 100,000 “

The PCR test that will “detect” The virus in water Or fruit if you use a CT value high enough. Anything over a CT of about 20 (1million X magnified) cannot detect a live virus. Most countries using CT of 34 – 45. Ct of 35 is 2 to power 35. = 35billion X concentrated.
Go and calculate a 45Ct ( used in the uk!!!!!)

This is nothing but a data fiasco pandemic.

https://fee.org/articles/john-ioannidis-warned-covid-19-could-be-a-once-in-a-century-data-fiasco-he-was-right/

Do some research before continuing the fear mongering “fake news”

#94 Georgia Fenda on 10.26.20 at 5:03 am

Domino’s are falling. Canada will fall. We’re broke, international lending is capped. Only 100% taxation and confiscation is Trudeaus solution. Mass round ups, detention camps next? It’s front page news but the population is in denial.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/26/africa-could-be-about-to-see-its-first-post-covid-default-.html

#95 maxx on 10.26.20 at 6:20 am

@ #12

It’s not up to government.

At any rate, it’s employees number quite a few investors and care about performance.

Wait for it…

#96 Diamond Dog on 10.26.20 at 6:41 am

“Restaurants, entertainment, hospitality, travel, admin support, property maintenance – all decimated.” – Garth

Yup. You can almost hear it. “Well, I’m not in any of those sectors so I’ll be fine.” Your neighbors, aren’t fine, how can you be fine? Geez, were economically interconnected here. We aren’t just talking high unemployment but low consumer spending, growing bankruptcies and mortgage defaults and winter is coming.

“Now winter is truly coming. We must protect ourselves. Look after one another” – Ned Stark :)

Btw, what happens south of the line will create more than ripples in Canada. It’s looking like there won’t be a vaccine to roll out to the masses until April and we don’t know how effective it will be (I’m guessing in the 60’s, we’ll know more in December), how long it will last or what percentage of the population will be vaccinated.

Trump’s plan is herd immunity (there is no plan other than wait for drugs and vaccines to save us) while nations like China, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Thailand are for all practicality, virus free. Developed nations like Japan have less than 100,000 cases and the leader of the richest nation of the world instead chooses herd immunity as a plan, with close to 9 million cases confirmed. Just to run by some numbers, the U.S. is averaging 70,000 cases a week now, growing by 10,000 a week. The daily average will be 100,000 a week in 3 weeks time. We could see 150,000+ cases a day in the U.S. by NY. Trump won’t be gone from office until late January, we might not see a daily U.S. peak until February.

Republicans under rudderless leadership, have given up trying to control this pandemic since the beginning, so plan is to do nothing but downplay the seriousness and talk down any efforts to deal with it because the WH handling of this has been nothing but a colossal failure. Discredit media (because the news is bad), downplay the virus or any plan against it, because to try to actually do something is to admit failure, the truth is that damning. Its an epic example of how lies trying to hide lies lead to complete and total policy failure. There’s no reset, no plan to roll out here, just more lies. “we’re rounding the corner.” “Media won’t be talking about it after the election, it will just go away”.

Meanwhile, the Fed is forced to borrow trillions to bail out wall street sure to weaken the dollar and emergency rates have juiced a housing bubble. Ditto here in Canada, what a mess.

To add insult to injury, Trump’s base of supporters are basically uneducated, low informed and dare I say it, none too bright. Y’know, simple. Dullard. Stunted. Easily led and boy does it show:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/22/us/politics/trump-voters-demographics.html

Republicans… voter suppression, brainwashing dumb people, it works for them. Save yourselves, America. Cast your votes accordingly. We simply can’t have dumb people deciding the course of history or this shit show lives on. (In Canada too, unfortunately)

#97 Captain Uppa on 10.26.20 at 8:03 am

This rush to RE, well, ongoing rush, is a worldwide trend. While balanced would be the appropriate approach, it’s not feasible for most. And guess what, a home will always trump anything else.

You can throw out all the numbers you want (implicit rent, taxes, maintenance, etc.), a home will always be the asset of choice.

Resistance is futile.

#98 Captain Uppa on 10.26.20 at 8:05 am

Further, do not forget that big buyers (companies) are being up RE, not just the Smith family. This is very prevalent in the United States and I feel it’s spread to around the world.

#99 Jake on 10.26.20 at 8:22 am

Pauvre, listen to Garth.

I had FOMO in 1987. In order to buy a pre-build I had to bring a certified cheque just to get into the trailer for 10 minutes to pick a lot and put a dot on it.

A few years later the market crashed. Luckily I had a “builder’s rate” special of 11 3/4%. We managed to stick through the downturn. We sold 10 years later and after fees we just broken even.

Listen to Garth.

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.26.20 at 8:28 am

@#73 Ponzie’s Political Pal

“Canada’s most popular premier just aced it.”

++++

Horgan ran against a man who had less voter empathy than the cardboard posters his volunteers hammered into lawns…..
The Covid distancing regs made for , media safe, no surprises “public” speeches in empty halls or TV studios.
A politicians dream.
I expect Trudeau will pull out all the Liberal tricks ( other than $380 Billion dollar cash giveaways) to force an election sooner rather than later now that he’s seen Horgie-porgie’s majority…

Especially when his bureaucrats are warning of an approaching economic storm.

#101 David Hawke on 10.26.20 at 9:44 am

Methinks Garth s referring to Air Canuckistan aka Air Crappy as the one on shaky legs.

That leaves Canuckistan with only a shakey weekly train tying the country together as the foreign owed Grey Dog stopped bus service a couple years ago.

Oh well, no big deal as Canada is screwed with the current PM a disaster and sadly, the only truly Conservative party stands no chance of forming the next government!

#102 Dharma Bum on 10.26.20 at 10:07 am

DELETED

#103 Do we have all the facts on 10.26.20 at 10:10 am

Canada has a universal health care system that in theory provides citizen of all ages with access to a basic level of health care.

In 1972 the basic standard for the accommodation of citizens requiring long term health care in an approved facility was four residents per room. In 1998 the basic standard was revised to a maximum of two residents per room.

In 2020 there were 627 long term care facilities in Ontario providing accommodation for approximately 77,000 residents. Of this total 14,550 residents were accommodated at the minimum standard of 4 residents per one room.

Curiously 82.3% of all long term care residents living 4 to a room were located in one of the 360 facilities operated on a for profit basis. This is a statistic that requires immediate resolution.

Considering that 1,990 of the 3043 deaths (65.4%) attributed to the Covid 19 virus in Ontario this year were residents of a long term care facility it would seem very important to determine what percentage of the 1,990 deaths were accommodated at the minimum standard of 4 to a room and what percentage were accommodated in a for profit facility.

The Government of Canada has committed over $350 billion to mitigate the impact of the Covid 19 virus and it would seem prudent to determine why 65.4% of all deaths attributed to the Covid 19 virus in Ontario involved 1/2 of 1.0% of the total population that currently reside
in a long term care facility.

Given what we know about the Covid 19 virus and the very expensive measures being taken to prevent additional mortality I respectfully request that some unbiased group determine what percentage of the 1,990 residents of a long term care facility whose death was attributed to the Covid 19 virus were living 4 to a room under a standard developed in 1972 and replaced for all facilities constructed after 1998.

Our fear of the Covid 19 virus requires some measure of context to assure that appropriate preventative measures are implemented. Waiting for a vaccine should not be allowed to overshadow more responsible actions.

#104 Dharma Bum on 10.26.20 at 10:15 am

#100 Jake

A few years later the market crashed. Luckily I had a “builder’s rate” special of 11 3/4%. We managed to stick through the downturn. We sold 10 years later and after fees we just broken even.
——————————————————————–

Shoulda hung on.

I bought the same way at the same time (just my life circumstances timing). I remember that crash. What did it matter, though? I was living in the house raising a very young family. Still in the same house today. Long paid off. Just a place to live.

If I sell now, or wait for another peak, it’s all gravy at 5 times what I paid. Or not. Doesn’t even matter.

Time heals all wounds.

#105 Tua the Redeemer on 10.26.20 at 10:42 am

Re offshoring, the closer you are to the client the safer you are. It’s easy to offshore call centres as anyone calling into one doesn’t have a close relationship with anyone who works there. This also means it’s easier to offshore roles that are cost centres. Tech development, accounting and finance etc are all easy to move.

And yep, after 10 years a new management team comes in and realizes it doesn’t work. But they don’t call you to give you your job back and the old management was getting paid off of the reduced costs for a decade.

To be “safe” in a big Corp, you’d better own some client relationships and produce.

#106 BillyBob on 10.26.20 at 10:52 am

#72 the Jaguar on 10.25.20 at 9:39 pm
#53 looking up on 10.25.20 at 6:33 pm
BillyBob on 10.25.20 at 2:19 pm
“Some giant corporations (a certain airline comes to mind) are wobbling on brink of insolvency.”

Maple or teal? I honestly don’t know which one you’re hinting at.

————

Air Canada, West Jet and Transat will be fine. Sunwing may go back to their former business model of being just a tour operator. Porter probably won’t make it.

__________

Porter’s route map shows a significant number of destinations within ” the bubble” deemed a necessity by those four participating provinces. I guess the decision to bolt the doors and windows to outsiders ( even if they are fellow Canadians) has consequences. I wouldn’t want to see a brave little enterprise go down anymore than a legacy enterprise. I hope they can all hang on till the Calvalry rides in.

Makes me feel proud Alberta is conducting the pilot to test international travellers on airport arrival in Calgary with negative tests subject to a two day quarantine versus 14 days with follow up in 5 or 6 days. We can’t let fear straightjacket this industry….
Make that Calgary, not Alberta. Those hosers up in Edmonton would never have come up with such a courageous move. Checkmate.

================================

Hmm. Was just speaking with an industry colleague and apparently there’s an internal correspondence circulating at WestJet with some pretty stark language about the dire consequences if certain quarterly metrics aren’t met. As in, existential consequences.

So as much as I’d like Team Teal to be the last one standing if one must fail, I’m not sure that it’s AC Garth is referring to.

And you are right to be proud of YYC for doing the smart thing and bringing in testing for travellers. I’ll be looking for connections through there and nowhere else when I visit. Not that I need an excuse to avoid Pearson *shudder*.

Have to laugh at MF still thinking that CAD is a currency on the same level as USD/GBP. The only thing protecting CAD from collapse is the other two debasing themselves just as fast, but watch out when it stops.

Unlike USD/GBP there’s not much behind CAD anymore. Used to be resources but that’s gone now.

#107 TurnerNation on 10.26.20 at 10:58 am

#104 Do we have all the facts – you know how it works, in this age of Science, Technology and A.I. the best tools of public health are shutting down of small business and martial law.
Hey nobody said global economic resets will come easily.
ON govt today is already blaming people’s Thanksgivings for the ‘case numbers’. Proof? They h8 our freedoms.
The Old System and family must be brought in line to the new CV protocols and religion. This is a global thang.

#108 Damifino on 10.26.20 at 11:06 am

#89 Faron

Oil is best used as feedstocks for materials and it will always have a place there. But straight burning it is going to be the horse drawn carriage of our or the next generation. Within my lifetime country fairs will toodle out an old internal combustion engine car to amaze the kiddos.
—————————————–

It will be a very long time indeed. You’re probably 35 years younger than myself and I don’t think even you’ll have to worry much about it.

Fossil fuels are still the only viable source of ‘industrial heat’. You know, what China, America and Japan use to forge metal into products that run the modern world. For example, many of the essential components of automobiles, electric or otherwise.

It’s Cheap, Abundant and Reliable energy that solar panels and windmills could not possibly replace. Not even close. Thanks to the ongoing criminalization of nuclear power, hydrocarbon energy will be with us for a very long time to come.

You speak of the demise internal combustion engine. Originally, we had external combustion engines. Trains burned coal to make steam to power their engines. Then human ingenuity allowed us to burn liquid fossil fuels internally thus directly creating mechanical energy.

I invite you to start thinking of electric vehicles as having ‘remote combustion’ engines. When you see a Tesla on the road you can rest assured a fossil fuel is burning somewhere to make that possible.

Don’t confuse the ‘relocation’ of combustion with the outright ‘removal’ of combustion. It’s a big mistake.

Out of sight out of mind? No way.

#109 Mattl on 10.26.20 at 12:06 pm

#100 Jake on 10.26.20 at 8:22 am
Pauvre, listen to Garth.

I had FOMO in 1987. In order to buy a pre-build I had to bring a certified cheque just to get into the trailer for 10 minutes to pick a lot and put a dot on it.

A few years later the market crashed. Luckily I had a “builder’s rate” special of 11 3/4%. We managed to stick through the downturn. We sold 10 years later and after fees we just broken even.

Listen to Garth.

—————————————————————

What’s wrong with living in a house for ten years and then selling the house for what you paid after fee’s? That sounds like an affordable place to raise a family for a decade.

Remember, any that sits out for 10 years, in most markets, will pay 25-40K a year in rent. Breaking even is a decent result.

#110 Old Ron on 10.26.20 at 12:21 pm

# 105 Dharma Bum

“It all ends in tears anyway”
– J. Kerouac, The Dharma Bums

The problem is we are dealing with house valuations that are priced to perfection. All time low rates, accommodative lenders, friendly B of C, helpful demographic and immigration trends, hundreds of Billions in free money in our pockets. It is unrealistic to suppose that these supports are infinite. We are top heavy, and like a sailboat, we are fully capable of turning turtle.

#111 IHCTD9 on 10.26.20 at 12:41 pm

#105 Dharma Bum on 10.26.20 at 10:15 am
#100 Jake

A few years later the market crashed. Luckily I had a “builder’s rate” special of 11 3/4%. We managed to stick through the downturn. We sold 10 years later and after fees we just broken even.
——————————————————————–

Shoulda hung on.

I bought the same way at the same time (just my life circumstances timing). I remember that crash. What did it matter, though? I was living in the house raising a very young family. Still in the same house today. Long paid off. Just a place to live.

If I sell now, or wait for another peak, it’s all gravy at 5 times what I paid. Or not. Doesn’t even matter.

Time heals all wounds.
____

This is the only way a house really makes sense. Family, and long term – a place to live.

We bought at a time just as house values were starting to stabilize, and rates were not far off from taking the plunge. Total fluke here as well. After all the appreciation and cheap rates, it may very well all go into the $hitter anyway via a RE bust right when we decide to sell.

I agree – who cares? It was a place to hang my hat for decades, and to raise our kids. It was also affordable enough to have allowed a decent nest egg to be built. It has done everything I could have ever asked of it.

When we leave, the next owners could well be the 8th generation to raise a brood in this house – I’ll have left it to them in much better condition than it was when we took ownership of it.

Call it a thanks for a job well done.

#112 looking up on 10.26.20 at 12:54 pm

#111 Old Ron on 10.26.20 at 12:21 pm
# 105 Dharma Bum

“It all ends in tears anyway”
– J. Kerouac, The Dharma Bums

The problem is we are dealing with house valuations that are priced to perfection. All time low rates, accommodative lenders, friendly B of C, helpful demographic and immigration trends, hundreds of Billions in free money in our pockets. It is unrealistic to suppose that these supports are infinite. We are top heavy, and like a sailboat, we are fully capable of turning turtle.

——-

Ron, where do you see the Canadian housing market going?

#113 TurnerNation on 10.26.20 at 1:04 pm

He’s the new Normal in the Former Kanadian Union
(FK-U)
Incrementalism toward UBI. What to do when the global government shuts down your business?

“SCOTIABANK READY TO ACCEPT APPLICATIONS FOR EXPANDED CEBA PROGRAM

Bank of Nova Scotia is ready to accept applications for the next phase of the Canada emergency business account (CEBA), with expanded criteria that enables eligible businesses who did not previously have a business banking account to now apply for the program.

“Scotiabank applauds the federal government for extending a hand up to more small businesses across Canada with the expanded eligibility of the Canada Emergency Business Account (CEBA),” said Dan Rees, Group Head, Canadian Banking, Scotiabank. “As the largest sector for employment in the country, it is critically important to Canadians and to our economy that small businesses continue to be supported. CEBA has given many business owners that peace of mind, providing them with liquidity and optionality as they navigate the unprecedented challenges presented by COVID-19.””

#114 IHCTD9 on 10.26.20 at 1:12 pm

#113 looking up on 10.26.20 at 12:54 pm
#111 Old Ron on 10.26.20 at 12:21 pm
# 105 Dharma Bum

“It all ends in tears anyway”
– J. Kerouac, The Dharma Bums

The problem is we are dealing with house valuations that are priced to perfection. All time low rates, accommodative lenders, friendly B of C, helpful demographic and immigration trends, hundreds of Billions in free money in our pockets. It is unrealistic to suppose that these supports are infinite. We are top heavy, and like a sailboat, we are fully capable of turning turtle.

——-

Ron, where do you see the Canadian housing market going?
___

I think Ron is saying all the gas is in the bag already.

#115 Millennial 1%er on 10.26.20 at 1:22 pm

inb4 housing market doesn’t go down

#116 MF on 10.26.20 at 1:28 pm

#107 BillyBob on 10.26.20 at 10:52

“ Have to laugh at MF still thinking that CAD is a currency on the same level as USD/GBP. The only thing protecting CAD from collapse is the other two debasing themselves just as fast, but watch out when it stops.

Unlike USD/GBP there’s not much behind CAD anymore. Used to be resources but that’s gone no”

-Actually, I believe it’s been Doug on many weekend posts detailing exactly what I said. He’s a portfolio manager, watches the markets closely, is paid to make calls, and is part of Garth’s team.

You are a pilot who had to leave Canada because things weren’t working out.

Who would you believe?

MF

#117 Bill on 10.26.20 at 1:43 pm

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.25.20 at 9:32 pm
#5 Bill on 10.25.20 at 2:43 pm
——————–
First Rule of house hunting:
Don’t trust the realtors!
———–
Amen to that….your side agent not required.
Last commercial prop i bought in the mills I negotiated my side and told the other side thay they can cut $37k from the commision.
They did…and totally doable on residential RE you just have to know the market and how to negotiate a bit. A notary can pen the deal. (Not doable in these stupid markets)
Realators are working for themselves. They want thier commis.

#118 Old Ron on 10.26.20 at 2:02 pm

# 113 Looking Up

I itemized a number of market drivers. The most important is the cost of money. All G7 central banks are buying bonds at an unprecedented clip to keep the yields down. So I would watch the longer end of the yield.curve. Mortgage rates can climb independently of the B of C rate if bond yield rise, and rates have a far bigger impact on the market than any thing else including the economic fundamentals.

Ultimately, it comes down to the individual. A principal residence is a lot more than an investment. It’s the place you live, maybe raise a family, and make memories. As long as you can afford it, and you are buying a home and not just a mortgage, then proceed with due diligence.

#119 Bill on 10.26.20 at 2:20 pm

#42 MF on 10.25.20 at 5:16 pm
#13 Bill on 10.25.20 at 3:17 pm
“They work harder”? “Don’t take sick days?”
-Yeah and not a source was seen for miles for this assertion.
————————————–
I don’t need to supply sources I am the source.
I started with BC Tell 1989 now Telus was an employee then contractor for 13 years.
Back then barely a brown guy around. Now a days I can barily pronounce their names.
In BC, Buildings full of engineers to operators and piles of other employes ect
Fast forward today, most are gone….our engineered docs are coming from India.
Sales, tech services, payroll, consultants, and procurement all sourced out of the Philippines or maybe a few in Central America. Funny thing the MF my wife immigrated from Philippines 35 years ago. I’ve been there 3 times spent 6 months there…Some of here relations work for Telus there.
As a field tech in BC for the cell side of the biz I’ve worked side by with many Philippines. Recent immigrated guys I know which were engineers there are only recognized as basic techs here….
They never complain rarely ever take a sick day, never on their phone for personal crap at work and always on time… Their work is impeccable and as for the local guys we hire you get the opposite most the time… I have to ream them out to get off the phone and move their ass in general. Don’t want to paint them all with the same brush but the odds are……
FACT MF companies like West Tower prefer these Flip dude worker over you know what….
Get my drift.

#120 Faron on 10.26.20 at 2:27 pm

#109 Damifino on 10.26.20 at 11:06 am

I agree with you on a few things. One is that nuclear is on the must-have list of technologies to patch over the demand gap that will arise if carbon intensive energy is ditched on the sooner end. Yes, there are some industrial processes that will always be carbon intensive such as smelting and industrial heat is a large demand (looks like roughly 20% of energy use in the US based on EIA numbers). You are mistaken to confuse the challenges inherent in how things are with an inability to circumvent those challenges. If industrial heat is impossible to replace (highly doubtful) then CO2 emitting fuels are best used there and carbon capture will have to cover that slice.

I fully understand where electricity comes from. Despite being from BC, I know that most electricity is not at all green especially in North America. This is why EVs come with an MPGe and those numbers are usually about double to triple what an internal combustion car gets. When combustion is centralized you get way better efficiency and that’s a massive first step. It’s also helpful because it allows development of in-situ carbon capture (although that’s a long ways off).

Cheap, Abundant and Reliable. Solar and wind are well on their way to providing electricity at a similar cost to coal/gas. In some markets they are already competitive. If the external costs of each were taken into account then coal/gas lose. By burning fossil fuels you are basically crapping the global bed to get “cheap” energy now. Abundant. Sure. There’s enough coal kicking around for hundreds of years of consumption and to bring us to a state where mammals can no longer survive in the subtropics without AC. Fine for us, but a pity for all the critters. Renewable energy is also abundant. And as I said above, reliability can be ensured with nuclear in the mix or through development of energy storage.

I’m 43 and fairly pragmatic. I drive a gs powered car, but it’s the most efficient one I was willing to afford. When discussing renewable energy, there’s a lot of throwing up of hands that the task is too hard. It is. But, some of that reluctance to change is driven by a false sense of ability to change and the rest by a false sense of the actual costs of doing nothing. Those costs are getting harder and harder to ignore. Twenty years from now, doing nothing is going to look extremely stupid. If you don’t think so, ask insurance companies how they feel. They are in an economic position where ignoring external risk is very bad business. There’s no ideology there, just raw capitalism. They are all working hard to quantify risk and none of those businesses are ignoring the problem. That should tell you something.

#121 BillyBob on 10.26.20 at 2:34 pm

#117 MF on 10.26.20 at 1:28 pm
#107 BillyBob on 10.26.20 at 10:52

“ Have to laugh at MF still thinking that CAD is a currency on the same level as USD/GBP. The only thing protecting CAD from collapse is the other two debasing themselves just as fast, but watch out when it stops.

Unlike USD/GBP there’s not much behind CAD anymore. Used to be resources but that’s gone no”

-Actually, I believe it’s been Doug on many weekend posts detailing exactly what I said. He’s a portfolio manager, watches the markets closely, is paid to make calls, and is part of Garth’s team.

You are a pilot who had to leave Canada because things weren’t working out.

Who would you believe?

MF

================================

If you think I care what you believe, you have completely misread everything I have ever written.

I have a great deal of respect for Doug’s professional expertise, but his is only one of many. I won’t waste both of our time by trotting out my own “experts” who can make rather compelling arguments for the precariousness of the financial path Canada is on.

But if you’re as brave as you are opinionated, place all your bets on CAD and shut the hell up.

Oh, right. I forgot. You missed the boat on both RE and financial markets, finding opinions easier to spout than act on.

Carry on.

#122 Faron on 10.26.20 at 2:36 pm

Don’t worry everyone, we can ignore COVID now. We have these:

https://www.vyzrtech.com/

Who needs a vaccine?!

#123 Looking up on 10.26.20 at 2:36 pm

#119 Old Ron on 10.26.20 at 2:02 pm
# 113 Looking Up

I itemized a number of market drivers. The most important is the cost of money. All G7 central banks are buying bonds at an unprecedented clip to keep the yields down. So I would watch the longer end of the yield.curve. Mortgage rates can climb independently of the B of C rate if bond yield rise, and rates have a far bigger impact on the market than any thing else including the economic fundamentals.

Ultimately, it comes down to the individual. A principal residence is a lot more than an investment. It’s the place you live, maybe raise a family, and make memories. As long as you can afford it, and you are buying a home and not just a mortgage, then proceed with due diligence.

———

Actually my principle residence is in Toronto and paid off. I have a couple of rental properties outside of TO but was hoping to pick up a few in TO but the rents are too low to justify the prices.

I know it’s very difficult to predict market direction just like to hear different opinions

#124 Diamond Dog on 10.26.20 at 2:40 pm

#109 Damifino on 10.26.20 at 11:06 am

I have to disagree with you. At best, hydrocarbons are a transition fuel. At worst, C02 pollution will lead to the end of the world as we know it. You are saying its not possible to transition away from fossil fuels. The science is saying that it is. Somewhere in between solution and doubt, its up to us to use that science, scale it up and mass produce it to the point of zero emissions first at refineries and plants, and finally with all other forms of transportation but that’s only a part of it.

Biden said on the last debate that his administration was aiming for zero emissions at refineries by 2035 and full zero emissions by 2050. Is it possible?

Is it possible to keep value for hydrocarbons that come from the ground in a post zero emissions world? Of course! Plastics have an excellent future downstream in a zero emissions world, as do composites, synthetic rubbers, fiberglass etc., the sky is the limit. Just look at this article for example:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/new-enzyme-cocktail-can-break-plastic-down-within-hours-scientists/ar-BB1a7Y7f?li=AAggNb9&ocid=ACERDHP17

The first thing in my mind, knowing that a third of oil consumption downstream is plastics when I read this along with environmental containment and recycling, is we aren’t going to have to leave it in the ground, at least what we’ve already developed, hydrocarbons will always have value. Zero emissions is not the end of the oil industry, at least not downstream.

But upstream, can we make refineries that are zero emissions? It remains to be seen, but I think so, yes.

There are basically one of two ways to do it, capture C02 emissions right at the refinery for all burned hydrocarbons (mainly nat gas emissions) through the use of direct air capture. The tech if interested on how to do it is laid out here:

https://carbonengineering.com/

Or, generate heat with a heat source that doesn’t come from hydro carbons. Are we there yet? No, not yet but we could be. We have tech now that is applicable but we haven’t tried it more than any other reason, because the use of natural gas is cheaper (and more convenient) than any other source of heat we can use (until of course, its scaled up and mass produced to be competitive and like catalytic converters, government has to force industry to do it and industry does what else, pass it on to the consumer). It’s still a question of economics, but it shouldn’t be, not at all, not considering what is at stake.

Our global financial system, proud as we might be to be the beneficiary of it’s accomplishments, has one gigantic flaw. There is no accounting for the environmental degradation from human profit. It’s never been priced in and because of it, it gives everyone a false sense of security. It’s the number one flaw of this “beast of the earth”. It’s a hopelessly flawed system because it has no environmental account to it’s actions and because of it, its a house of cards, a hand that feeds us that can disappear overnight because sustainability is not built into the system. If one reads this paragraph and understands what I’m saying, fear and sobriety would be an appropriate response.

My largest fear is, at least for the world as we know it, is that we don’t have the time. 15 years ago, I thought that Arctic ocean ice free summers would be the environmental canary in the coal mine that would bring enough worry and danger to spark humanity into the rapid technological changes we are seeing now. I remember conversations back in 06′ on this blog about the first things to watch for (Wildfires decimating the west coast, sound familiar? An Arctic ocean ice free within 5 years of these events) What I see now is not a canary in the coalmine, but a tipping point of no return. The rapid tech changes we are on the cusp of (EV’s and hybrids, solar, wind, storage, hydrogen fuel cells) and make no mistake, solar for most locations between 50 degrees N and S of the equator is cheaper capital expense wise to build than big power coal, gas or oil and will only get cheaper. New coal, gas and oil plant builds aren’t in the world’s future as they can no longer economically compete. Don’t believe me, look it up. There are still big power storage issues, but it’s coming. But… will it come in time? We are slow in rolling this out and our Arctic global cooling system (ice) is getting awfully thin.

Really, the key question is, assuming we scale up the tech in time to avoid environmental disaster from climate change, can this world with the 7.7 billion people matched with the consumer habits we have, avoid all of the other forms of environmental degradation we are responsible for? Not without rapid change in everything we do including how we educate, especially what we value and how we think. When I see examples like this below, it not hard to believe we have a hill too steep to climb. These systemic challenges take time to solve and time is not a luxury we have:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Emo_pQgwfkk

Even if humanity somehow manages to avoid climate change, there are so many other environmental issues and these same threats are coming from the same source… our flawed global economy cranking out profits that don’t take environmental degradation into account!

#125 Bill on 10.26.20 at 3:59 pm

Cheap, Abundant and Reliable. Solar and wind are well on their way to providing electricity at a similar cost to coal/gas.
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And store the energy where? On rainy cloudy days? Nuke plant everywhere? Heating your home at 30 below?

Im a tech and worked on battery systems for decades. I’ve been In 1000 cell site. Not one can run reliably on solar period…maybe in Arizona? When it snows 10 ft in the Coquihalla good luck, you need rock solid hydro and a $100k diesel gen set for backup. Winter, the most important time to have cell service when peeps are hitting the ditch.
And with the new HSPA or LTE network its only using 20% the energy the legacy equipment did.
What the biggest energy draw in the sites? Heat and AC building management. Many of the sites have no road access. Helicopters is the only way to build and maintain sites. We may have a 1500lb payload and 2 hr return flight. You need Jet A-1 and that’s the only way to get from A to B in these conditions.
There tons of these examples…People that pooh pooh fossil fuels are absolutely clueless.
I’m on my 2nd electric car and love it. I’ve had zero maintenance bills in 6 years.
I payed zero road tax so far and electricity cost is approx 1.2 cents per km. Cost of shipowner is embarrassing! They wont save the planet that’s hog wash.
Posted prior and I think to the point….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqppRC37OgI

#126 Jake on 10.26.20 at 4:54 pm

#100 Jake

A few years later the market crashed. Luckily I had a “builder’s rate” special of 11 3/4%. We managed to stick through the downturn. We sold 10 years later and after fees we just broken even.
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#105 Dharma Bum
Shoulda hung on.

I bought the same way at the same time (just my life circumstances timing). I remember that crash. What did it matter, though? I was living in the house raising a very young family. Still in the same house today. Long paid off. Just a place to live.

If I sell now, or wait for another peak, it’s all gravy at 5 times what I paid. Or not. Doesn’t even matter.

Time heals all wounds.

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I did hang on, I sold and moved into another house that I bought in 1995, which I still live in today. What does it matter? Well, I probably could have come out better had I invested and waited to buy after the peak.

Hindsight is 20/20, but point Garth is making and I’m supporting is, don’t buy into FOMO. You will come out richer in the end.

#127 Tron on 10.26.20 at 7:59 pm

I think the US presidential race if too close to call. Personally I think Trump wins. However if Biden wins he won’t govern. He is most of the time coherent but the job requires you to be full-time.

We are too tied into the US economy not to suffer what ever they do over the next 5 years.

BTW the green deal can never work. Have a look at the amount and variety of metals to convert to solar and wind will be needed. We simply don’t have it and it will take years and years to mine and then it still won’t be enough. Environmentalists should be protesting bill 69 if they want to go green so miners can get to work on their new green deal. Or maybe they already know this and understand it woun’t ever happen but sure gets those votes.

#128 Bill on 10.27.20 at 1:16 am

#3 Leftover
President Biden will also raise taxes and cut military spending, which he has ample room to do, and thereby lower the deficit to GDP ratio. He’ll look like a hero.
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Your kiddiing right?
All governments are completely broke.
There no digging out from a black hole.

https://thetrendletter.com/2020/09/26/the-elephant-in-the-room/