The end is nigh (not)

The American stock market sits near a record high. In the middle of a recession. And a pandemic. Which grows worse. With a crazy uncle dude as president.

How can this be? How can it last?

Nary a week passes on this pathetic site without some wuss predicting collapse. Mayhem. Apocalypse. A market crash and crumble. The virus didn’t do it (yet). So now the forecast is for social chaos and financial ruin following the November American election.

Given that this is October 19th, it’s a fine day to talk about being wiped out. Over the lifespan of this blog, lots has hit the fan. There was the 2008-9 credit crisis, which melted stocks. The 2011 US debt ceiling crisis. The 2015 oil crash crisis. The 2016 Trump election shock. And now the 2020 Covid collapse.

Along the way, every single time, people have panicked, sold into a storm, gone to cash, exaggerated current events and lost perspective. But as bad as things looked, nothing has compared (so far) with what happened on this day in 1987. Black Monday. Wall Street shed 22.6% of its value in a single trading session. Ouch. Compare that to the 12.9% drop that the virus caused one day last March, or the 12.8% plop that took place in October of 1929.

Now, I have a confession. I’ve made it before. I shall make it again. Caught in the middle of that disaster my perspective was also warped. At the time I was the business editor and daily columnist for a big Toronto newspaper. By mid-afternoon – when it was apparent to everyone that history was unfolding – the CBC sent a crew to my office to ask me what the hell was going on.

That interview still sits in the corp’s archives. And just look how sweet, innocent, wrinkle-free and hairy I was at the time…

What did I tell the reporter (and the audience)? That the consequences of the crash would be long-lived, leading maybe (but likely) to the collapse of an American bank or two, along with a sustained period of economic reversal. What should people do, she asked? Run, I said. Flee stocks, go invest in something safe that pays you interest. This could be bad. (By the way, five-year GICs were then yielding 9.4%, so not such a flawed idea.)

Once that interview was done and the trading day finished, I laid out pages for the paper’s morning edition that contained pictures of 1930s soup kitchen lineups on Toronto’s Yonge Street with thousands of unemployed, desperate people. It was a moment of naïve irresponsibility I regret still.

So what happened?

No big bank collapses. No depression. The next day the US Fed put out the tersest and most pointed statement ever. Thirty words that made all the difference: “The Federal Reserve, consistent with its responsibilities as the Nation’s central bank, affirmed today its readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system”. The bank bought up scads of assets, injected liquidity into the system and collapsed interest rates. Just like it’s done in 2020. The shorts were killed.

The market rebounded. By the end of the year the Dow was higher than in January. In twenty more months it was at a new record high. And with the crash came a slew of reforms, including market circuit-breakers (triggered in 2020) which would in future force investors into sober second thought in the midst of any meltdown.

There would be more crises. The 2000 dot-com, tech bloodletting was intense. Nine Eleven tested everyone. The Gulf War. And then the five end-of-world events that have occurred since this blog published its first bleating words.

Now, so much more.

Covid is getting worse thanks to Trump, the virus-deniers, anti-maskers, party-animal kiddos and a flawed, political, uncoordinated approach to public health. Europe is on the verge of a lockdown. The USA appears to be a few weeks from being officially out of control. If Biden wins, guess what? Yup. Dr. Fauci will rule.

Meanwhile there’s a whole generation of RobinHoodies flipping stocks every few minutes on their phones, pushing valuations higher, buying sexy companies and melting the markets up. Central banks? Ah, out of bullets.

In this world a market correction would not surprise. After all, the rally since the end of March has been spectacular. Historic. If you had gone shopping for equities on the afternoon of March 23rd, 2020, as in the final hours of October 19th, 1987, you’d be rolling in capital gains. But that would take courage as well as money.

Courage, by the way, comes from confidence. That flows from experience. And wrinkles sure help.

168 comments ↓

#1 Thomas on 10.19.20 at 1:02 pm

This time is different.

#2 MiddleoftheRoad on 10.19.20 at 1:25 pm

Trump just called Fauci an idiot, lol.

https://www.businessinsider.com/anthony-fauci-donald-trump-coronavirus-restrictions-election-2020-10

Plus, with all the press releases about Hunter Biden, I don’t see how President Trump would lose.

#3 WTF on 10.19.20 at 1:26 pm

30 yrs ago! Same Barber?

#4 The dude on 10.19.20 at 1:30 pm

That is one awesome computer you have in that picture. Oh and great hair

#5 Doug t on 10.19.20 at 1:35 pm

November and December are going to be an absolute sh*t show – get the popcorn ready

#6 FriedEggs on 10.19.20 at 1:37 pm

Meanwhile there’s a whole generation of RobinHoodies flipping stocks every few minutes on their phones, pushing valuations higher, buying sexy companies and melting the markets up. Central banks? Ah, out of bullets.

Sexy companies – no wonder we are pathetic. Our definition of sexy is now flipping stocks on the latest useless electronic gadget, as our spirits continue to decay. This is something to look forward to?

Everyone wants to look good, no one wants to be good.

#7 Tarot Card on 10.19.20 at 1:37 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
And thanks for answering my question, I am embarrassed I missed the true intention of the post yesterday!

It takes courage to admit your wrong and even more to list it here on the blog. To be honest I don’t think you were to far wrong in 1987. I read somewhere years ago that you are in fact correct, we were less than three minutes till total economic collapse in 1987. If Greenspan did not act when he did there would have been major consequences.

Well it’s all history and now.

And you are correct all through March April and May my friend and I stood by and watch the markets recover. Every night we would say nerves of steel.

Oh well hindsight. But this time I am ready for a major pull back!
Have a great day everyone!

#8 Decent Majority on 10.19.20 at 1:40 pm

The aftermath of the US election could be anti-climactic, although there’s not likely to be a quick fix for covid. But we will suffer more in Canada I think. Trudeau is tearing the country apart. The next move will be to criminalize Maritime fisherman for wanting fair treatment from the government and some curtailment of special interest privilege. Those fellows will soon come to realize they’ve been thrown into the big blue bin along with western grain farmers and energy workers, Newfoundland included. Sorry guys, you are not part of their brave new world.

#9 Drill Baby Drill on 10.19.20 at 1:44 pm

“And just look how sweet, innocent, wrinkle-free and hairy I was at the time…”
Is that a Mullet I see? Bwahahahaha

GreaterFool readers: carefully separating the wheat from the chaff, then obsessing over the chaff. – Garth

#10 dave on 10.19.20 at 1:45 pm

Mr. Beard of Knowledge – majority of people that read your blog want to purchase a home but at a discounted price. When is this going to happen….2 – 3 months or 2 to 3 years or Never?

#11 Drill Baby Drill on 10.19.20 at 1:47 pm

Regardless of who wins Nov 4 in the Excited States there is a real wildcard playing out. It is Biden’s son Hunter. This story is gaining legs

#12 S.Bby on 10.19.20 at 1:48 pm

Let’s not ignore the elephant in the room; the Federal Reserve with their market manipulations. Who can even guess on what the real value of the stock market should be any more? We have no way of knowing since price discovery has long gone out the window thanks to the Fed.

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.19.20 at 1:54 pm

Gee.
That photo could have been taken Saturday OR Sunday in front of the Vancouver Art Galley when the anti -mask looney contingent showed up to protest the “Illuminati World Order”…
My Gawd….these people vote.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/anti-mask-protesters-conspiracy-theorists-march-through-downtown-vancouver-1.5149905

#14 Anthony on 10.19.20 at 2:09 pm

So what you are saying is sell the B&D portfolio and buy a 3x short S&P 500?

#15 Broader mind on 10.19.20 at 2:10 pm

There is an angel on your left shoulder guiding you on your office bulletin board.

#16 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.20 at 2:21 pm

Predicting the future is tough.
That’s why I stay out of it.

#17 Faron on 10.19.20 at 2:35 pm

Trump’s fading hard. However, he blabbed on a campaign call a few minutes ago that there’s a “story” coming out in the WSJ that will harm Biden.

We’ll see. One evening a couple months ago Trump claimed he had huge news coming. The next day he pardoned Susan B. Anthony. Bigly.

It’s starting to feel like Trump fatigue is setting in in the US (for more than half the US and the rest of the world, Trump fatigue set in in 2012 or so). Hospitalizations rising, cases rising abruptly yet Trump is saying it’s no big deal. Gas lighting only works so long. People eventually catch on and see the gas lighter for who he is. Weak and inept. And then they go about their lives and make a sensible choice.

#18 SeeB on 10.19.20 at 2:38 pm

Still giving air to the conspiracy theorists here, I see.

Yeah, the spending is stupid and out of control, but “necessary?” from a lock-down perspective.

What would have prevented, or at least shortened these lock-down would have been simple guidelines for protections, but the conspiracy-theorists, Covid-denialists, and mask-refusers, have only managed to demonstrate the “necessity” of lock-downs.

We literally can’t trust these people to consider the needs of others in society to try and work as safely as is reasonable.

It wasn’t the open policy/herd immunity that saw Sweden do relatively well; it was the day-to-day empathy and consideration of their citizens working to protect each other as best they could given a crappy situation.

Way to selfishly shoot yourselves in the foot over and over again.

#19 Rick Stephens on 10.19.20 at 2:41 pm

MMT is more money trashed theory. You can put lipstick on a pig but it is still a pig. You can’t spend, borrow, tax your way to prosperity. It never works, will never works and did not work. Liberals, socialists, marxists, NDP, Green, Labour, Democrat party and and other left leaning ideologies can’t stand math because it always gets in the way like reality.

#20 Jim on 10.19.20 at 2:44 pm

Is Covid really “getting worse” if it spreads and establishes a measure of immunity against future corona virus strains? The 1968 pandemic (H3N2) which killed 1-4 million is now part of the yearly flu.

I find it amusing that there are people out there who think they can control the distribution of a .3 micron virus that runs asymptomatic in as high as 40% of the population. The virus will spread despite our best efforts.

#21 Howard on 10.19.20 at 2:53 pm

From your hairstyle and that olive-green monitor, I would’ve guessed 1977 rather than 87.

You were not yet born, right? – Garth

#22 Pete from St. Cesaire on 10.19.20 at 2:53 pm

Why is it that twice in the last 5 days you’ve linked to the ‘leaked document of doom’ when normally you despise ‘conspiracy theories’? I’m sure many readers (myself included) are figuring that in doing this, you, as a political insider, are letting the word out for those with eyes to see and ears to hear, that you’ve been advised that the ‘document’ is legitimate. Then to further this speculation you state today that you regret having been irresponsible years ago and strive to never put out misleading info.

I said it was crap. It is. But this is also the age of conspiracies. Be careful what you believe. – Garth

#23 Cliff on 10.19.20 at 2:57 pm

Hey Garth, today the national post reported 200,000 cases to date of covid in Canada. Would you divide that by 37 million and remark on the % that you get? How about deaths – 9714 I think divided by 37 million. I mean, what the heck….

#24 Dolce Vita on 10.19.20 at 3:00 pm

Oh look…

To the Libertarian lovers of VALHALLA, that mystical land that according to them has no ANYTHING when it comes to COVID (most of which have never been there nor read their news daily BUT have a mouth and like to shoot it off):

“The government wants to introduce pandemic laws (Sweden)”

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/eK8nmK/regeringen-vill-infora-pandemilag

Time to go search for a NEW GARDEN OF EDEN there Libertarians (N. Americans that THINK THEY know more about Sweden than the Swedes themselves do)…

—————————–

PS:

To all the aforementioned Clowns that think Sweden did NOTHING have a read, you know, by the Swedes:

“Seven months with coronavirus in Sweden”

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/50A281/sju-manader-med-coronavirus-i-sverige

Ya, the Swedish people are stupid and have a death wish during a pandemic and of course, according to self-appointed N. American Swedish Experts, do NOTHING to save their lives.

Makes a lot of sense, well to the Alt-Right it does.

And Sweden buys Italian ORANGES (’cause they’re not on steroids like the US and Australian ones are) not to mention anything they can get their hands on with “Made in Italy” on it…you should see them in Milano during Fashion Week…sometimes I think I’m in Stockholm then mercifully, I realize I’m not freezing my privates off and am gazing upon Il Duomo instead.

Grazie Il Bel Paese.

#25 Apocalypse2020 on 10.19.20 at 3:05 pm

“The USA appears to be a few weeks from being officially out of control.”

Very true. America will be toast soon enough.

China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are gleefully rubbing their hands in anticipation.

They are smart. Do not be surprised if they take visible action even before election day. Their invisible activity is already in full force. Putin is in control of global military politics and knows it. Xi is in control of the global economy and knows it.

Treat the next 15 days as a final blessing, time to work out your best options for at least short term survival.

PREPARE

#26 Danger Dan on 10.19.20 at 3:06 pm

As mentioned here a while back, the Fed was signaling rate normalization prior to the pandemic.

Presumably that plan would continue after the pandemic winds down, but what about all this new stimulus spending occurring?

This could be the new excuse trotted out to justify continued low rates since the old argument is obviously toast in light of the fact that we’re somehow surviving pandemic lockdowns and mass unemployment.

#27 Dolce Vita on 10.19.20 at 3:11 pm

The themes of today’s Blog is:

Old age and treachery will overcome youth and skill.

-Anon, Time Immemorial

…though Google thinks it happened in one of their Gmail’s (you know…youth).

————————–

…like a fine wine My Liege.

#28 Linda on 10.19.20 at 3:21 pm

‘Know when to hold them’ is easy to say, not so easy to do when panic mode strikes. However, the B&D approach has certainly done as predicted. Losses due to Covid earlier this year are mostly recovered, despite some ructions along the way.

What if one ‘must’ withdraw from the market? I’m talking about those whose other sources of income have been tapped out & who need $ to keep on going. Well, here is hoping those folks have RRSP’s they can tap. Remember Garth’s advice, take out funds in years when your income is very small or nonexistent when you can, to minimize the tax hit.

#29 Alberta Ed on 10.19.20 at 3:21 pm

We’re not older, we’re vintage now.

#30 Faron on 10.19.20 at 3:24 pm

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.19.20 at 1:54 pm

Gee.
That photo could have been taken Saturday OR Sunday in front of the Vancouver Art Galley when the anti -mask looney contingent showed up to protest the “Illuminati World Order”…
My Gawd….these people vote.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/anti-mask-protesters-conspiracy-theorists-march-through-downtown-vancouver-1.5149905

Thanks, I’ve been scouring the internet for a photo of Sail Away. The beard probably provides some filtration.

Love me an anti establishment rally where the participants are drinking Starbucks frappucinos. Way to stick it to “the man”.

Luckily, those people probably vote for People’s Party candidates. Every nation needs a wacko fringe party or two to sponge up votes and help make folks feel they have “choices”. I’ll take a double tall icead late whip with a side of “don’t tread on me” plz.

#31 Doug t on 10.19.20 at 3:24 pm

The Fed is talking more and more about going to cashless society – once they do we are all pooched

#32 Handsome Ned on 10.19.20 at 3:28 pm

Garth you were 20 years ahead of everyone. You had the hipster look when todays hipsters were toddlers. Did you have skinny jeans and drink craft beer?

#33 forgotmyusername on 10.19.20 at 3:29 pm

Garth writes:
“Covid is getting worse thanks to Trump, the virus-deniers, anti-maskers, party-animal kiddos and a flawed, political, uncoordinated approach to public health. Europe is on the verge of a lockdown. ”

———–
Genuinely curious: How do the many who want the USA’s Covid outcome to be President Trumps fault explain that Covid is also a problem ….in places that are not lead by a Bad Orange Man?

Is Europe being on the verge of another lockdown also Trump’s fault? Quebec & Ontario having surges in cases, also Trump’s fault?

Maybe it’s a virus. Maybe Covid outcomes have less to do with disliking a head of state than other factors. Maybe we don’t know everything yet. Maybe what works, and what doesn’t, will only become clearer with time and 20-20 hindsight?

Yes, Garth lists multiple factors. But I think many readers only care about the ‘Trump caused all things bad’ framing.

I suppose my comment will draw fire as blind support for Trump. It is dead easy to make a long list of Trump flaws and mistakes.

But I grow weary of blind contempt toward Trump that is not even logical.

How about writing as fair & dispassionate observers, able to call balls and strikes as they happen?

People who insist on taking a political side and believe their side’s leaders are all great all the time, but the other side’s leaders suck, 100% of the time….well that sort of mind-set is the problem. Not the solution.

Moan all you wish for your boy, but Trump’s he-man, ‘blessing from God,’ maskless response to the virus has had consequences among those who blindly follow him. US = 5% of global population and 25% of Covid deaths. Something’s wrong. – Garth

#34 Faron on 10.19.20 at 3:32 pm

A couple months back, when the S&P passed 3400, someone here called a “top”. Garth asked why. And, here we are again, back around that level. So, you may have timed the market consolidation level, but did you sell? And if so, what are your plans to buy back in? Just curious.

Timing the markets is hard because you have to call the top and the bottom correctly, or with enough accuracy to offset spreads and fees and almost no one does that well. I’d love to hear the story.

#35 belly rubs on 10.19.20 at 3:33 pm

The survey on our property was filed in the 1860s. Not much has changed. The biggest shakeup happened 8.5 million years earlier when a lava flow went through. The glacial breakup 15,000 years ago also made a dent. 5 years ago, a local mill paid for the road to be paved. 4 years ago a forest fire went past about a km east. That was exciting. You can leave a piece of paper pinned to a fence post and it will still be there year after year. We live in a dry climate that hasn’t changed much in the last 150 years. I have some wood rounds over 300 years old and the rings show the odd incident, but growth has been regular. Maybe a little wetter this year. The news is interesting, but less relevant than it might be if we were entangled in society. Canada is a big place… a really big place. Some nights it’s so quiet you can hear a lone trucker moving freight on the highway 5kms west. I think most people live the life they choose and then try to involve others when life doesn’t work out the way they planned. They would need a 4×4, lots of gas, and a good reason to involve us. Thanks for keeping us informed about the state of the nation. Appreciated. No changes to our current plans at this time.

“Courage… couldn’t come at a worse time.”

#36 yvr_lurker on 10.19.20 at 3:59 pm

Very interesting post and comparison with 1989 (when a little country like Thailand triggered the sudden dip). However, I still do not see why the market is near record highs given the many industries that have been severely affected by this. The record stimulus injected, and the only game in town rationale, must be propping this up. However, the next time that we hear a “rationale” as we did about 5 years ago for a sudden severe dip in the market due to the potential debt default of Greece, we should all be skeptical. There are likely unseen hidden forces at work pulling the strings on the market to create good buying opportunities for those investors with priviliged information (like those titans of industry at the start of the pandemic who were given priviliged info on the likely severity of the pandemic). Is it a rigged system? Not completely, but there are forces for sure that are hidden to the average joe-blo investor.

#37 Ian from Oshawa on 10.19.20 at 4:01 pm

It’s incredible how many people have been put in the ground and STILL this thing is being denied. What is it going to take?

If I was a young child and there was a disease that would kill children, I know my parents would stay home to protect me. Should I do any less for them?

If people don’t want a second lockdown, follow the rules, keep infection from growing and it won’t be likely.

The selfish and callous narcissists of our society don’t realize they can have what they want, they just have to wear a mask, distance, and follow protocol. History will not be kind to those fools.

#38 El presidente superspreader tour on 10.19.20 at 4:01 pm

DELETED

#39 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 10.19.20 at 4:04 pm

“From your hairstyle and that olive-green monitor, I would’ve guessed 1977 rather than 87.”

It was a newspaper. Could’ve been ’97. That industry didn’t see any technology upgrades between ditching the Selectrics and putting up home pages on the World Wide Web. No sartorial or coiffure upgrades, either, I might add.

#40 espressobob on 10.19.20 at 4:05 pm

As a retail investor I’ve made loads of bad decisions in the past that proved quite costly. I never repeat them.

That’s the cost of growing.

#41 forgotmyusername on 10.19.20 at 4:10 pm

US = 5% of global population and 25% of Covid deaths. Something’s wrong. – Garth
————————
Yes, I agree. Something is wrong.

And I don’t know what that might be. I question if anyone really does know, at present.

It could be that some countries have worse results, but cannot, or will not, collect or report with accuracy.

It could be we are only half-way through the pandemic and the finally numbers will change, in terms of which countries did worst and best.

It could be that many countries are collecting Covid stats which count anyone who died WITH Covid (or Covid-like symptoms) in a manner that inflates that number, compared to a tally of anyone who died OF Covid.

I am not saying those things are true. Or that there’s some plot out there. (I don’t think it’s easy to tell who died with Covid verses dies of Covid.)

Right now Covid is sometimes like that Rorschach ink blot test. Some see over 200K deaths and just know those numbers are accurate and also “know” excatly who is to blame!

Me, I see a sad, tragic, difficult problem that we do not have all the answers for. And assigning blame, on a specific, individual and personal level, may be a projection.

No matter who was POTUS, no matter who wins in November, the actual response for Covid in the USA tends to happen at the state level.

Biden was correct when he most recently said, if elected, he could encourage masks but could not compel them.

When you go see which states had the best “results” in terms of cases & deaths, it’s a big spread. Which makes sense, as exposure, density and all sorts of variables differ.

The interpretation of those numbers tends to be political too. But a surprisingly good case can be made that Florida (for example) did way better than New York. Yet I don’t hear any criticism of Gov. Cuomo, from the left. He’s all good. Trump (who has less to do with this than Governors do) is all bad.

It’s unbalanced.

Trump on masks (April 3): “The C.D.C. is advising the use of nonmedical cloth face covering as an additional voluntary public health measure. So it’s voluntary. You don’t have to do it. They suggested for a period of time, but this is voluntary. I don’t think I’m going to be doing it.” Trump on Dr. Fauci (Oct 18): “he’s an idiot.” Draw your own conclusions about where many Americans are getting their news on the virus, and how they are behaving as a result. – Garth

#42 FriedEggs on 10.19.20 at 4:12 pm

‘Meet the new boss, same as the old boss’

-Won’t Get Fooled Again (The Who)

#43 Dolce Vita on 10.19.20 at 4:16 pm

Yes, cumulative Deaths the DAMN VIRUS is now the 4th largest killer in many countries this year (US, UK and even in Canada).

BUT NOW deaths are remarkably LOW and new cases for most countries (including Canada) are much HIGHER than they were during the 1st wave.

I read from ON people saying 1/2 the cases they do not know where they originated or came from.

And if you did, what would you do?

They should rename COVID-19 to:

WHAC-A-MOLE.

‘Cause when you shut it down here, it pops up there, shut it down there and it pops up elsewhere and so forth.

For example, Italia and others in Europe stating 80% of new cases origin is from HOME TRANSMISSION. So they say no more than 6 visiting your home that are not living there. Others say 5, some say 7. I mean you know, are they basing those numbers on the NATIONAL average HOME dining room seating capacity?

Some Science as they all proport.

—————————–

I think Govs in the G7 have to have an ADULT conversation with their citizens and explain that yes cases are high BUT deaths are remarkably low NOW, so, do we:

1. Lockdown or its Partial variant or restrict

OR

2. LEARN TO LIVE WITH IT?

True ICUs being overwhelmed but in just a few places at the moment in the developed World and that is with MUCH HIGHER new cases.

Maybe part of #2 above is to expand and keep ICU capacity (invest/maintain regardless).

If the developed World keeps doing what it is doing, it will take YEARS FOR ECONOMIES TO RECOVER, years. A lot of livelihoods at stake, yes and lives lost but now those lives lost are low by comparison to the 1st wave.

Deaths per Million, G7 (plus The Vatican, ’cause I can):

https://i.imgur.com/51enxXZ.png

Worst case is bad boy France at 10% or so 2nd Wave vs. 1st Wave deaths, the rest, well below that e.g., Canada at 4% currently of 1st Wave deaths.

FWIW.

#44 Alberta Nomad on 10.19.20 at 4:18 pm

I went shopping for individual stocks March 23rd – April 8th, doubled my family’s networth, sold slowly in June to lock in my gains and then went back to my lovely ETFs. Life is grand.

#45 3s on 10.19.20 at 4:20 pm

Your right, this is just the rich adjusting their belts. If it rains money all you have to do is stick out your hand.

#46 forgotmyusername on 10.19.20 at 4:31 pm

#43 Dolce Vita on 10.19.20 at 4:16 pm

……I think Govs in the G7 have to have an ADULT conversation with their citizens and explain that yes cases are high BUT deaths are remarkably low NOW, so, do we:

1. Lockdown or its Partial variant or restrict

OR

2. LEARN TO LIVE WITH IT?

—————————

Strongly agree with this summation!!

Cases are up. But… deaths are down.

Lockdowns are a choice, which also come with very serious costs, including contributing to other cause of death & lasting economic harm.

Learning to live with it (which could include returning to normal economic activity, with precautions, such as hand washing, masks, etc) also has real costs (including deaths) and significant benefits.

Both have risks and benefits.

I know which model I prefer!

#47 Stone on 10.19.20 at 4:36 pm

Garth, you look like a millennial in that picture. Just missing the man-bun.

Have you ever seen a moister wearing a tie? – Garth

#48 Faron on 10.19.20 at 4:37 pm

#35 belly rubs on 10.19.20 at 3:33 pm

Neither here nor there. But, IMHO, you need to give the glaciers more credit for the shape of your land and the quality (or lack thereof) of your soil. Sounds like you live in the Okanagan, and unless you live on top of a mountain, your land was probably under a km or two of ice and was dramatically resculpted within the past 100k years.

What’s more likely to cause catastrophic damage in the future? Well, probably nuclear war or some other human caused catastrophe. Naturally? Jury is still out on whether we’ll skip a glacial cycle or two due to anthro CO2 levels being too high for orbital forces to initiate glaciation. If we wont, then our present intergalcial will end within a few thousand years and the earth will tip back into glaciation and your house will be run over by a wall of ice within as little as 30,000 years. Bummer. I don’t think a mag 8 earthquake would cause too much harm where you live unlike here on the coast where the resulting tsunami will kill thousands within the next few hundred years. Climate change will be a pain, but not a catastrophe for Canada although it may provoke item 1, nuclear war and help kill everyone by that route. It’s not impossible for a major volcanic event to transpire that ether buries your valley in ash or lava or spews enough ash into the stratosphere to cause global nuclear winter-esque cooling. More severe pandemic? That would just get rid of the humans. Life will carry on.

Obviously, these aren’t things to lose sleep over. keep the brush down and the lawn watered during summer and you’ll be fine.

#49 Bruce Allen on 10.19.20 at 4:37 pm

Let’s not forget too that we’ve probably enjoyed the longest period of peace and prosperity following WWII that at any other point in history, a period of rapid growth and development which resulted in the industrial revolution that proved to be a time of great advancement/opportunity/wealth for the West. 75yrs after the fact, it may very well be that the party is winding down and we are in for the ride of our lives.

As this pandemic drags on, I’ve witnessed how 30+yr marriages were destroyed, suicides, substance abuse, addiction and mental health crises unlike anything I’ve ever seen. The toll this is taking on many communities right across the country is something you have to see to believe. Many people hurting, social outreach agencies and food banks are seeing record demand (even seniors are passing through the doors now), while my 45yr old disabled nephew is expected to survive on a $896/month that he receives from ODSP. His mom resides in long-term care (dementia), while his dad meanwhile is now 72yrs old and has heart disease. This poor bugger has no savings/investments, and will only receive a little more than $100k when the parents ‘check out’.

Yeah.

The path society is on right now is utterly unsustainable. Either a complete reset of our economic order is way overdue, or we, as a society, face complete and utter collapse and ruin. I akin what’s happening now to that of the old Roman Empire.

As for the U.S. election, no matter who wins on November 3rd, I expect to witness chaos/anarchy in all the major cities. Thank whatever Deity you believe in that you don’t live anywhere near a major metropolis in the days/weeks following.

I have this uncanny feeling that we haven’t seen anything yet.

As far as the Global Financial System goes: Good luck…

#50 45north on 10.19.20 at 4:41 pm

Drill Baby Drill

Regardless of who wins Nov 3 in the Excited States there is a real wildcard playing out. It is Biden’s son Hunter. This story is gaining legs

it sure is. You ain’t seen nothing yet.

New York Post reporters apparently refused to have their bylines put on that story, saying it felt too fake. Interesting. – Garth

#51 Dolce Vita on 10.19.20 at 4:43 pm

Forgot to mention in my prior tirade about

LEARN TO LIVE WITH IT

or the new normal besides ICU capacity is to continue protecting our most vulnerable (e.g., Elderly in Care Homes).

I remember in January, February searching for therapies etc. for COVID-19 (started tracking it in Jan. when China had 850 new cases or so, Italia had 3) and could not find anything.

The other day on YouTube watched UK’s Doc Campbell where he says low death rates with higher new cases in part due to well established protocols in ICU (trial and error, leads to learning and something that works).

The course of COVID-19 and General Approach to treatment:

https://i.imgur.com/MGlZJ3q.png

(from EVMS CRITICAL CARE COVID-19 MANAGEMENT PROTOCOL, Developed and updated by Paul Marik, MD, Chief of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Eastern Virginia Medical School, Norfolk, VA, September 28th, 2020)

—————————

Govs need to sit down with their citizenry and ask what they want to return matters to the NEW NORMAL (feel safe incl. most vulnerable and whatever else) so as not to obliterate their economies and go HOPELESSLY IN DEBT for decades to come.

#52 Faron on 10.19.20 at 4:53 pm

#41 forgotmyusername on 10.19.20 at 4:10 pm

“…Me, I see a sad, tragic, difficult problem that we do not have all the answers for. …”

Weak sauce bud. Falls in with the dumpster heap phrase “I hope I’m wrong” after stating some bizarro conspiracy theory. “The chinese are feeding babies to hunter Biden, but I hope I’m wrong about that.”

Your post basically says “this is hard, we don’t have all the answers, so we should do nothing to avoid inconvenience.” Just because it’s not a wildfire bearing down on your house doesn’t mean it should be ignored or that the consequences are not grave. And even then, it’s no wonder that the Proud Boys and MAGA crowd or Molalla, OR were the ones who refused to evacuate their homes because looters (AFAIK zero looting happened) despite twitter conspiracy nuts posting constantly.

I was reading a book of essays last night and one touched on the leanings toward nationalism and suggested that when education falters and people can’t think with a background of science or civics or really any critical framework, they fall back on simple notions because the issues are too complicated. Nationalism is a simple way of uniting people who find civics and society more difficult than identifying the people who look like me and speak my language. That tendency gets exploited by politicians. Failing to see the connections between measures taken to minimize COVID infection and the resulting death of illness reflects an inability to think through complex interactions in the world. It’s a weak bail out.

#53 jerry on 10.19.20 at 4:59 pm

If Biden gets sworn in on January 20th 2021…..

What does angry ole Trump do in the preceding couple of months?

#54 Dolce Vita on 10.19.20 at 5:02 pm

“Have you ever seen a moister wearing a tie? – Garth”

Thus, I rephrase:

“Old age and treachery will overcome Moisters* and skill.

-Anon, Time Immemorial

Still though, like a fine wine…My Liege.

————-

*Parent home basement dwellers, Pandemmials, etc. (you know who you are).

#55 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 10.19.20 at 5:02 pm

“Trump on Dr. Fauci (Oct 18): ‘he’s an idiot.’” – Garth

Without question, Doctor Donald J. Trump’s diagnosis of Tony F. is certainly correct. Dr. Trump’s inherent genius enables him to see through Incompetents, Frauds, Quacks, Witch Doctors, etc.

Some people might find it a bit surprising that Dr. Trump did not publicly articulate his expert diagnosis of Tony F. a lot sooner than he did. Of course, this delay can easily be attributed to Dr. Trump’s famously patient, gentle, kind, long-suffering nature.

Ultimately, though, for the good of his dearly beloved nation, Dr. Trump will have to say, “Tony, you’re fired!”

#56 Don Guillermo on 10.19.20 at 5:08 pm

#46 forgotmyusername on 10.19.20 at 4:31 pm
#43 Dolce Vita on 10.19.20 at 4:16 pm

……I think Govs in the G7 have to have an ADULT conversation with their citizens and explain that yes cases are high BUT deaths are remarkably low NOW, so, do we:

1. Lockdown or its Partial variant or restrict

OR

2. LEARN TO LIVE WITH IT?

—————————

Strongly agree with this summation!!

Cases are up. But… deaths are down.

Lockdowns are a choice, which also come with very serious costs, including contributing to other cause of death & lasting economic harm.

Learning to live with it (which could include returning to normal economic activity, with precautions, such as hand washing, masks, etc) also has real costs (including deaths) and significant benefits.

Both have risks and benefits.

I know which model I prefer!
******************************************

Listened to an interview this morning with Jason Kenney on Danielle Smith talk radio. The above comments seem to match his approach.

#57 Drew on 10.19.20 at 5:12 pm

Bring back the March discounts!

#58 BlogDog123 on 10.19.20 at 5:19 pm

GT, ignore the hair critiques, you look just fine!

I remember as a young’in Black Monday being a “world is ending event”, but it soon fizzled into faded memories.

#59 jal on 10.19.20 at 5:42 pm

1. Lockdown or its Partial variant or restrict

OR

2. LEARN TO LIVE WITH IT?”

—————————

Define “it”.

1. C19
2. Printing press
3. Crushing taxes
4. Debt forgiveness
5. Poverty
6. Gated exclusive communities
7. Long haul effects
8. A changed/different society

#60 KNOW IT ALL on 10.19.20 at 5:44 pm

And so we PREPARE for the next CRASH!

#61 Barb on 10.19.20 at 5:47 pm

It appears that you’re not aging as fast as the rest of us, Mr. T.

#62 GBiddy on 10.19.20 at 6:00 pm

Oi, Faron! You’re way off the mark, mate.

You’ve been gaslit by the purveyors of fear, the theme of course this time round is Covid.

And Trump fading? You’re mad, son. I get you may wish it were so, but a politician pulling in 10-15,000 people two or three times a day at political rallies, with thousands more lining the streets when he drives by, is not fading.

I think you need a dictionary. Perhaps the word you’re looking for is ascending or surging?

You trying to gaslight us, mate?

#63 mj on 10.19.20 at 6:01 pm

follow me for a minute. Trump said he will leave the states if he loses to Biden. Trump moves to Canada and becomes a Canadian citizen. Trump runs for Prime minister and wins. How does that sound?

#64 belly rubs on 10.19.20 at 6:02 pm

#48 Faron on 10.19.20 at 4:37 pm

I was pondering which contributions from society have most affected our (farm) lives in the last 50 years. The top three would be
– rechargeable batteries
– throttle body fuel injection
– this blog?

Yes, not losing sleep over any pending disasters… yet. We are at 3100 ft altitude. Apparently, the glacial melt carved out our valley in less than an hour, according to geologists, once the surface ice cracked and the torrent rolled through. We can see the layers of past lava flow on the canyon walls now exposed. When we bored our well, we went down into the earliest flow, about 10.5 mya. That water is smooth. 8.25 PH. You can really taste the difference. Prehistoric water from the Myocene. No filtration necessary.

#65 Duffy on 10.19.20 at 6:14 pm

It would be interesting to see how advanced humanity would be if we could download our collected wisdom at 70 years to our children and then they download to theirs and so on . . . . . it would eliminate sticking our tongues on frozen metal, hangovers, and voting for liberals.

#66 GBiddy on 10.19.20 at 6:15 pm

Oi, Faron! (2/2)

I just read what you wrote:
#48 Faron on 10.19.20 at 4:37 pm
#35 belly rubs on 10.19.20 at 3:33 pm

What’s more likely to cause catastrophic damage in the future? Well, probably nuclear war or some other human caused catastrophe. Naturally? Jury is still out on whether we’ll skip a glacial cycle or two due to anthro CO2 levels being too high for orbital forces to initiate glaciation. If we wont, then our present intergalcial will end within a few thousand years and the earth will tip back into glaciation and your house will be run over by a wall of ice within as little as 30,000 years

You surprise me. Few greenies, lefties, Neo-Marist types like yourself seem able or willing to go deeper-ish on the climate stuff.

This is a rarely spoken truth: we are in an unusual and prolonged gap between ice ages. We’re anywhere from 50,000-100,000 years overdue for another ice age, and yes all triggered by natural orbital cycles.

Linking this anomaly to higher levels of CO2 causes a conundrum. If greenies were right all along, and plant-food CO2 is causing warming AND therefore preventing another ice age, we should keep burning fossil fuels for as long as we possibly can.

Yeehaw!

#67 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.19.20 at 6:18 pm

Dear Doctor Garth,

I know that you always espouse taking your CPP at the age of 60. I am 59 and just received my papers to do the same. I do understand what is presented in front of me.

However…..

I have a friend who claims that despite the figures you see presented to you he claims that your pension will be reduced to what essentially amounts to a 50/50 split with your wife’s entitlement at the time of your application…. even if one ‘s wife has only achieved the youthful age of 54 and thus can’t apply for CPP for at least 5 years.

Clarification would be appreciated.

Your CPP entitlement has nothing to do with your spouse. You earned it. – Garth

#68 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.19.20 at 6:20 pm

I forgot to mention that a 40 pounder of Crown Royal rides on the outcome of your advice.

I know it’s a lot of pressure but clarification is required.

#69 Nonplused on 10.19.20 at 6:41 pm

I don’t think the markets will crater after the election. If people were fearful they would be selling now. You know the phrase, “Panic early and avoid the rush!”

And whether Trump or Biden wins the federal reserve and the stimulus will stay the same. Biden is not going to “soak the rich” because he in fact is a Manchurian candidate from them. Look at all the money they are giving his campaign!

The riots will be short lived after the results are finally confirmed. They will serve no further political purpose until we approach 2024, when they will return.

I’m still predicting Trump wins. I don’t think Hunter Biden’s laptop will make much if any difference, because the people who are voting for uncle Joe are not voting for Joe but against Trump. And the people are voting for Trump won’t ever vote for Joe. The election really is “Trump vs. Trump”. Always has been. That is why Joe doesn’t bother to campaign or met the press so much. It wouldn’t move the needle. The best he could hope for is to avoid another gaff.

Trump on the other hand is campaigning like crazy. He is well aware that he needs clear victories that can survive any recount or court challenge in key swing states. He needs to keep his base highly motivated.

#70 TRON on 10.19.20 at 6:47 pm

Experience is a great thing to have when converted to wisdom. Past economic experience is valuable if the economic circumstances are the same as the past.

Today we have nothing resembling the past. In the 30’s people went hungry, today kids sit at home waiting for their $2k while playing video games. In the 80’s people didn’t own homes they could not afford.

2008 changed everything and lit a fuse on a time bomb. Where people put their money now has consequences that are unknown. Fundementals are upside down with a record stock market prices and record unemployment. When have we ever seen that? How about mortgage forgiveness because I don’t believe that was available for people in the 80’s when the banks were foreclosing.

The future is risky like never before. Deflation comes next followed by inflation? maybe. BOC keeps printing and we all live on UBI eventually? sure why not. Civil war in the US? it’s possible. China takes it’s place as the world leader and we sell them our resources and buy their products? That’s already started so the bible may be right.

While everybody is guessing I’ll keep buying gold/silver coins and stocks. If I’m wrong I’ll be ok with that and if I’m right I can point back to this post in a few years to say at least I got something right :)

#71 Stone on 10.19.20 at 6:49 pm

#47 Stone on 10.19.20 at 4:36 pm
Garth, you look like a millennial in that picture. Just missing the man-bun.

Have you ever seen a moister wearing a tie? – Garth

———

Yes. They explained to me it was part of their adulting…whatever the hell that means.

#72 Penny Henny on 10.19.20 at 6:49 pm

Hey Dolce Virus Wiener?
Where is your apology to Flopper?
Can you admit you were wrong?
I noticed by the time log of your comments and by the fact you are in EyeTalia that maybe you had been hitting the bottle. No worries though I’ve done the same except my spelling is usually atrocious.

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.20 at 6:55 pm

This news just in:
China’s Q3 2020 came in at +4.9%.
Covid related news:
China has almost no new cases. During the recent fall holidays, about 500 million Chinese were travelling freely throughout China.
My conclusion:
Strict lockdowns of hotspots, quick contract tracing and masks are working.

#74 Nonplused on 10.19.20 at 6:56 pm

#11 Drill Baby Drill on 10.19.20 at 1:47 pm

“Regardless of who wins Nov 4 in the Excited States there is a real wildcard playing out. It is Biden’s son Hunter. This story is gaining legs”

I don’t know about that. There isn’t much coming out so far that we didn’t know already, except maybe some unsubstantiated pedophilia accusations. I mean we already knew about Burisma and the coke. People are either voting for Trump or against him, nothing else matters. If Joe died they would just prop his body up until after Nov. 3rd like “Weekend at Bernie’s”.

Also last I checked Hunter Biden isn’t running for president and I don’t know that the president’s children are prohibited from gainful employment. Otherwise Trump would have some ‘splaining to do too. But it is politics of course so no fly that lands on your head goes undercapitalized.

#75 Stone on 10.19.20 at 6:56 pm

#60 KNOW IT ALL on 10.19.20 at 5:44 pm
And so we PREPARE for the next CRASH!

———

You mean, rebalance the B&D ETF portfolio? Watch capital and dividends grow thereafter?

Yawn…you’re boring.

#76 Penny Henny on 10.19.20 at 7:10 pm

#24 Dolce Vita on 10.19.20 at 3:00 pm
Oh look…

To the Libertarian lovers of VALHALLA, that mystical land that according to them has no ANYTHING when it comes to COVID (most of which have never been there nor read their news daily BUT have a mouth and like to shoot it off):

“The government wants to introduce pandemic laws (Sweden)”
///////////////

Sorry Dolce Virus but Sweden still has a lower deaths/million than Italy!
And still no shutdowns!
Are you enjoying the view from your apartment window?

#77 Penny Henny on 10.19.20 at 7:15 pm

#24 Dolce Vita on 10.19.20 at 3:00 pm
And Sweden buys Italian ORANGES (’cause they’re not on steroids like the US and Australian ones are) not to mention anything they can get their hands on with “Made in Italy” on it…you should see them in Milano during Fashion Week…sometimes I think I’m in Stockholm then mercifully, I realize I’m not freezing my privates off and am gazing upon Il Duomo instead.

Grazie Il Bel Paese.
////////////////

I feel sorry for any person that paid good money to go to university only to be lectured by “hair on fire ” Dolce Virus (also known as the sweet virus).

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.19.20 at 7:19 pm

@#73 Ponzie’s Promise
“Strict lockdowns of hotspots, quick contract tracing and masks are working.”

++++
OR

The Communist controlled media…….is lying?

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.19.20 at 7:22 pm

@#71 Stone
“They explained to me it was part of their adulting…whatever the hell that means.”

++++
Hah!
It’s what children say when they pretend to be mature.
I , on the other hand, never pretend I’m an adult.
Easier that way.

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.19.20 at 7:24 pm

@#76 Penile Envy
“Sorry Dolce Virus but Sweden still has a lower deaths/million than Italy!
And still no shutdowns!
Are you enjoying the view from your apartment window?”

++++
Seriously?
Thousands of Italians dead and your mocking him?
Chill out.

#81 Paul on 10.19.20 at 7:26 pm

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.20 at 6:55 pm
This news just in:
China’s Q3 2020 came in at +4.9%.
Covid related news:
China has almost no new cases. During the recent fall holidays, about 500 million Chinese were travelling freely throughout China.
My conclusion:
Strict lockdowns of hotspots, quick contract tracing and masks are working.
————————————————————————————————
China has almost no new cases? Say W.H.O.
No detention camps, no dead doctors, no dead scientists,
No freedom of the press, ah yes China.

#82 John on 10.19.20 at 7:28 pm

I looked at the Fed rates chart since 1987 and it was quite visible that the interest rate never got back up to the same level it was. That can mean only one thing: we are gradually moving into the negative interest rates territory. It looks like the FED tried to raise them back but then another crisis was hitting and they had to lower the rate even more. So it is kind of true that we will never be seeing 5% mortgages again. And I’d say not even 3.5% mortgages….

#83 Nonplused on 10.19.20 at 7:29 pm

#18 SeeB on 10.19.20 at 2:38 pm
Still giving air to the conspiracy theorists here, I see.

Yeah, the spending is stupid and out of control, but “necessary?” from a lock-down perspective.

What would have prevented, or at least shortened these lock-down would have been simple guidelines for protections, but the conspiracy-theorists, Covid-denialists, and mask-refusers, have only managed to demonstrate the “necessity” of lock-downs.

We literally can’t trust these people to consider the needs of others in society to try and work as safely as is reasonable.

———————–

I’m going to consider that to be the true conspiracy theory. In a free society, people can make their own choices. If they win a Darwin award, well too bad for them. And considering the needs of others is not a well documented human trait. You aren’t considering the need for people to work and earn a living, which for many is more pressing than a germ they will probably survive.

As I have recounted here before, attendance at my son’s school had dropped to 50% before the government closed them. Now that they are open with draconian mask mandates and other ridiculous rules that make algebra even more painful than it was before, attendance is still only 75%. The other 25% went online.

And the masks appeared at Costco well before the mandates.

So we could say “We literally can’t trust these people to consider the needs of others” or we could say “Meh. I’m not going to the bar. I’ll think I’ll DFH (drink from home) tonight.”

Somehow we have transitioned from a society that no longer takes responsibility for their own safety but instead wants to impose any measures on others. That “Cottagers Stay Away” person is a good example. Does she need to interact with any of them? No she probably does not. Yet she thinks they should abandon their properties for her sake.

If you are worried about covid, stay away from crowded places. Don’t tread on me. I am avoiding crowded places and wearing a mask all on my own.

Now, I am going to probably get a response from Garth here. Yes, all deaths are tragic, and it would have been nice if people had reacted better to the situation. But in a pandemic not all deaths can be avoided. But it should work like the airline industry or even car manufacturing. Possible safety measures are always compared to the cost vs. loss of life. You know how we could assure nobody ever died in a plane accident again? Ban air travel. Car accidents are a major cause of death, especially in the 18-30 crowd. Ban cars. Oops a subway car derailed and killed 20 people. Ban trains. It’s just not worth it and Joe Black shows up one day regardless.

#84 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.19.20 at 7:33 pm

Thank You Garth. The Crown tastes better when it’s free.

Now we need to have a frank discussion about fear. Someday.

#85 George on 10.19.20 at 7:38 pm

You can parot the market all day and night Garth-

Central bankers rule the world . Why is the market where’s it’s at ? Because of Powell

Of course this printing of money has no long-term consequences ? Or u choose to ignore , easier that way .

Fiscal conservatives lost , a long time ago .sorry

#86 will on 10.19.20 at 7:38 pm

A class act Garth. (the interview)

#87 Nonplused on 10.19.20 at 7:46 pm

#61 Barb on 10.19.20 at 5:47 pm

“It appears that you’re not aging as fast as the rest of us, Mr. T.”

Or he may have aged faster, and hid it behind that glorious beard. With wisdom comes wrinkles.

#88 IVoteIndependent on 10.19.20 at 7:57 pm

#18 SeeB
Sweden did not actually do very well at all:
https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

Now they are even starting to lock down:
https://time.com/5901352/sweden-local-lockdowns/

#89 Yikes ... on 10.19.20 at 7:58 pm

https://www.straight.com/news/vancouver-real-estate-record-500000-bonus-awaits-realtor-of-buyer-of-138-million-condo-in-tower

#90 Ace Goodheart on 10.19.20 at 8:09 pm

The message from this month’s economic news:

“No matter how bad things get, everything will be fine. Governments will just print more money, people will use the free money to buy stocks, and hey, if they run out of free government printed money, they can just borrow more. Interest rates are super low.”

Nothing could possibly go wrong.

#91 cristian on 10.19.20 at 8:23 pm

Hey Garth, today the national post reported 200,000 cases to date of covid in Canada. Would you divide that by 37 million and remark on the % that you get? How about deaths – 9714 I think divided by 37 million. I mean, what the heck….
****************************
0.0002621621%

Or, expressed another way, 9,714 grieving families. – Garth

#92 Nonplused on 10.19.20 at 8:25 pm

Uh oh more conspiracies. Word now is that Trump tower is a target. I hope Trump didn’t go cheap on the fire suppression when he built it.

#93 Hans on 10.19.20 at 8:27 pm

DELETED

#94 binky barnes on 10.19.20 at 8:30 pm

Will sleep like a baby tonight. Why you wonder? Because Mr. Justin Trudeau has his two manly hands on the wheel, expertly guiding this country through these difficult times. And there is nothing–absolutely nothing–more important to this person than the economic well-being of Canada. Nothing.

#95 KNOW IT ALL on 10.19.20 at 8:32 pm

To: #75 Stone on 10.19.20 at 6:56 pm
#60 KNOW IT ALL on 10.19.20 at 5:44 pm
And so we PREPARE for the next CRASH!

———

You mean, rebalance the B&D ETF portfolio? Watch capital and dividends grow thereafter?

Yawn…you’re boring.

——-

and so is Warren Buffett. I’ll take his money over yours anyday.

#96 Faron on 10.19.20 at 8:36 pm

#66 GBiddy on 10.19.20 at 6:15 pm

Oi, Faron! (2/2)

I just read what you wrote:
#48 Faron on 10.19.20 at 4:37 pm
#35 belly rubs on 10.19.20 at 3:33 pm

Linking this anomaly to higher levels of CO2 causes a conundrum. If greenies were right all along, and plant-food CO2 is causing warming AND therefore preventing another ice age, we should keep burning fossil fuels for as long as we possibly can.

Yeehaw!

My background is in paleoclimatology 24kyr BP to present, so I know the vagaries of CO2, methane and orbital forcing as well as various feedbacks.

Unfortunately, CO2 is linked to climate change through physics and the only ones left arguing against that fact are people who are funded by oil companies or those who have egotistical/personal/spiritual investments in climate stasis. Yes, CO2 has good for plants. Yes, there have been times when CO2 levels have been much much higher than today (not in the last several million years though). And, yes, once CO2 concentration levels off and humans have had time to adapt, society will probably flourish again albeit slightly further away from present day coastlines. But, hey, Greenland will be ice-free. The pain is in the change. There’s a whole lot of social strife in the transition from 280 ppm CO2 to 2-3x that. And that matters to humans in the next few hundred years until equilibrium is reestablished.

It’s like the stonkmarket: no one really cares what the S&P level is, or what the Dow is at or how much of a rip-off Tesla stock is. The numbers are irrelevant except what you are referring them to. What matters is the change. Change (climate or otherwise) has crumpled various societies/nations/political regimes in the past and it may well do so again. Complex, interwoven human society and infrastructure doesn’t handle change well.

#97 fishman on 10.19.20 at 8:56 pm

The theme of todays blog may be old age & treachery overcomes youth & skill. However, in my old age & job skills, youth & no sleep overcomes old age & treachery.

#98 C V on 10.19.20 at 9:05 pm

US = 5% of global population and 25% of Covid deaths. Something’s wrong. – Garth

Garth if you think those stats are accurate and not due to high volumes of testing in USA and low volumes throughout many other areas of the world- you are a fool

They’re still dead. – Garth

#99 Ponies Pilatus on 10.19.20 at 9:05 pm

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.19.20 at 7:19 pm
@#73 Ponzie’s Promise
“Strict lockdowns of hotspots, quick contract tracing and masks are working.”

++++
OR

The Communist controlled media…….is lying?
————-
I get my China News from Fairchild TV and South China news based in HongKong.
And my partner has family in China.
Remove your ideological blinders.

#100 the Jaguar on 10.19.20 at 9:08 pm

I remember that October day very well. I was living in the GTA, learning a few lessons. But here we are in the increasingly dark days of autumn, winter approaching.
The mind turns to any possible exit or relief from it all.

After eight very long and tedious months enduring the daily dose of Covid news and it’s near or far threats to my existence on the planet, I confess I think only about escape. I can’t be alone in these thoughts.

So here, for your enjoyment and enlightenment blog dogs is the Covid “Dashboard” from that little country with an extraordinarily large heart. They’re holding their own despite the withering gaze of the most powerful country on the face of the earth. A true David and Goliath story.
11.34 million people. And they are waiting to welcome you back with open arms. The only thing to fear is fear itself, or so somebody once said.

https://covid19cubadata.github.io/#cuba

#101 Trojan House on 10.19.20 at 9:19 pm

#17 Faron on 10.19.20 at 2:35 pm

Cases may or may not be rising but look at the deaths. They are pretty much flat.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths

Even here in Canada, younger people are “catching it” but are fortunately not dying. This is good news, no?

#102 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.20 at 9:22 pm

#88 IVoteIndependent on 10.19.20 at 7:57 pm
#18 SeeB
Sweden did not actually do very well at all:
https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

Now they are even starting to lock down:
https://time.com/5901352/sweden-local-lockdowns/
————–
There are two opposite ways to deal with the virus:
Total lockdown of hotspots and contact tracing – (China) or let it rip (herd mentality oops immunity) – Trump.
Then there are lot of hybrids.
BC’s system of self-isolation and robust contact tracing so far has been successful.
Hope it holds.

#103 Chimingin on 10.19.20 at 9:24 pm

Covid blah blah aside, I’m really angry that Queen’s U dropped PM MacDonald’s name from their law building. What tf is happening in this country?

#104 Don't Buy Lobster! on 10.19.20 at 9:27 pm

DELETED

#105 april on 10.19.20 at 9:27 pm

#83 – their not trying to prevent all deaths… just trying to limit the spread of the virus so hospitals and the medical system don’t get overwhelmed

#106 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.20 at 9:54 pm

#92 Nonplused on 10.19.20 at 8:25 pm
Uh oh more conspiracies. Word now is that Trump tower is a target. I hope Trump didn’t go cheap on the fire suppression when he built it.
—————
No problem. He’s an expert in voter (suppression).
And he’s got the Proud Boys who can stand guard.

#107 Patrick on 10.19.20 at 10:08 pm

Consider the possibility (however remote) that society had self organized to maximize our collective immune response prior to the 2020 government meddling. I don’t think this is an outlandish concept. Examine a population growth chart over the past thousand years- improved hygiene, food availability, vaccines and literacy have maximized our survivability. 7.8B and counting.

Yet this year- we never seem to tire of sniping and tut-tutting the opposing tribe for (sometimes imaginary) bad behavior because a new ILI continues to spread. I don’t think I’ll ever understand that mentality.

Early on in the pandemic- who and where did the virus hit the hardest? The elderly. LTC centers. Those party animals had it coming I guess.

#108 Stone on 10.19.20 at 10:09 pm

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.19.20 at 7:22 pm
@#71 Stone
“They explained to me it was part of their adulting…whatever the hell that means.”

++++
Hah!
It’s what children say when they pretend to be mature.
I , on the other hand, never pretend I’m an adult.
Easier that way.

———

Agreed. I’ll go put on some rubber boots and go jump in a puddle. Adulting is overrated.

#109 Stone on 10.19.20 at 10:12 pm

#95 KNOW IT ALL on 10.19.20 at 8:32 pm
To: #75 Stone on 10.19.20 at 6:56 pm
#60 KNOW IT ALL on 10.19.20 at 5:44 pm
And so we PREPARE for the next CRASH!

———

You mean, rebalance the B&D ETF portfolio? Watch capital and dividends grow thereafter?

Yawn…you’re boring.

——-

and so is Warren Buffett. I’ll take his money over yours anyday.

———

How about going out and making your own money instead of coveting someone else’s. I’m not interested in his or yours. I’m happy with mine. I earned it and derive my satisfaction from that.

#110 TurnerNation on 10.19.20 at 10:30 pm

What’s really going on. Seen elsewhere. At 2:10 mark. Ontariowe’s regime leader talking about digital IDs – for health, birth cert and so on all stored in a ‘digital wallet’.
Wow CV did this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGnsd_V09GA

— Ooof our forum host said that!

#7 Millennial 1%er on 07.13.20 at 3:37 pm
It might be your nightmare when CBs take over crypto and ban all others. – Garth

—- Which brings me to my point, : lockstep global control mechanism. In this New System, rolled out that winter week in March, nobody will be given a free ride. No normalcy until you submit. Prison rules.

#84 TurnerNation on 09.14.20 at 9:46 pm
Blockchain – I came across this. What I’ve been noticing for months.
Real easy: as animals our feeding, breeding, movements to be controlled. This is a big tax farm we’re on.

You see , you never get your freedoms back in the same fashion. Ever. Sports stadiums too will remain closed until you submit more. This has been planned out for years, decades. Blockchain: the technology we use for absolutely nothing. But this. The new CV caste system.
The WE crew as usual:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/covid-19-passport-app-health-travel-covidpass-quarantine-event/
Rising COVID-19 infection rates pose a threat to global tourism.
A new app acts as a health passport for travellers who are virus-free.
Using blockchain technology, it provides an encrypted record of test results.
Its creators say it could allow healthy travellers to avoid quarantine.
The app could also allow sports and entertainment venues to reopen safely, as well as the global conference and exhibition industry.

#111 Canuck on 10.19.20 at 10:31 pm

Covid is getting worse thanks to Trump, the virus-deniers, anti-maskers, party-animal kiddos and a flawed, political, uncoordinated approach to public health.
_______________________________________________

Did you also blame the President, virus deniers, anti maskers, blah, blah, blah when 60 million Americans were infected with H1N1? I didn’t think so.
Yes, not as many died with H1N1 but no one knew what that number would be at the time.

#112 The Woosh on 10.19.20 at 10:32 pm

#63 mj on 10.19.20 at 6:01 pm
follow me for a minute. Trump said he will leave the states if he loses to Biden. Trump moves to Canada and becomes a Canadian citizen. Trump runs for Prime minister and wins. How does that sound?

——————————————————

Sure thing, that’s just what Canadians need! At the ripe old age of 85. He’s not like a fine wine that gets better with age…more like vinegar. I don’t like a lot of what JT has done lately but I’ll take him any day of the week over that old wind bag!!!

#113 TurnerNation on 10.19.20 at 10:39 pm

#105 april on 10.19.20 at 9:27 pm lol you said that in April and now our freedoms are even more gone.
See ya in a year’s time, well Sept 2021 apparently, when this part of rollout is ended when the telescreens focus in on something else. Our rights? Nowhere to be seen.

#114 Squire on 10.19.20 at 10:53 pm

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.20 at 6:55 pm
This news just in:
China’s Q3 2020 came in at +4.9%.
Covid related news:
China has almost no new cases. During the recent fall holidays, about 500 million Chinese were travelling freely throughout China.
My conclusion:
Strict lockdowns of hotspots, quick contract tracing and masks are working.

———————–
Haha… and you’re the expert on China and believe what you read. 1.4 billion people in China and no new cases. I’ve got a beautiful lot for sale a swamp area. Trust me, it’s a great lot.

#115 Squire on 10.19.20 at 10:59 pm

#103 Chimingin on 10.19.20 at 9:24 pm
Covid blah blah aside, I’m really angry that Queen’s U dropped PM MacDonald’s name from their law building. What tf is happening in this country?

——————————————–
Read up on Bolshevik Revolution – we can learn alot from that. However, don’t expect poorly educated Canadian voters to care. They would rather smoke their legalized cannabis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Revolution

#116 Elon Fanboy on 10.19.20 at 11:12 pm

10%.

Those were the mainstream polls predictions of Trump winning at this point in 2016.

Current situation, based on Vote by mail returns and early in person voting, checked against historical voting patterns and party registrations in the Primaries?

Trump is up 1-3 points in the key states of AZ, FL, NC, GA, MI, WI, MM, & PA.

Ignore the polls. If you want accurate daily reports follow these guys on Twitter. They’re Republicans but don’t sugar coat what they are seeing. @CottoGottfried, @LarrySchweikart, & @Peoples_Pundit.

Bizarrely yesterday Biden called a press lid until Thursday, ie. no appearance until the debate. Unprecedented this close to an election. Conjecture that he is hiding from questions about his son’s emails and personal involvements. Interesting to note that he has not flat out denied it.

#117 Elon Fanboy on 10.19.20 at 11:14 pm

US = 5% of global population and 25% of Covid deaths. Something’s wrong. – Garth

——-

I’m gonna hazard a guess that China was not entirely honest about their death toll.

#118 TomMac on 10.19.20 at 11:16 pm

Was a broker at RichGreen in October 1987. I remember my entire book, save for one guy who was 100% short, basically screaming at me to sell at the market. Only problem was there were no bids. By the end of that day a very large scotch was in order.

#119 Uncle Charlie on 10.20.20 at 12:11 am

#96 Faron

Since you’re the resident expert on climatology here, what is your take on this information below? (Not an attack, just honestly would like to know why you believe this info to be incorrect):

https://electroverse.net/earths-temperature-plunged-in-march/

https://electroverse.net/greenlands-smb-gained-6-gigatons-yesterday-nh-snow-mass-above-norm/

https://electroverse.net/great-falls-smashes-snowfall-record/

https://electroverse.net/were-out-of-corn/

#120 Tccontrarian on 10.20.20 at 12:34 am

After reading Garth’s post and the comments above, I conclude that:
A. Garth believes the Covid numbers (even though ‘case’s are meaningless, and many deaths attributed to Covid19 are questionable)
B. The increased numbers of deaths from other causes (suicides, cancer, diabetes, etc), don’t really count as much.
C. Some here are not ok with these discrepancies, myself included.
D. The World Economic Forum has been explicit in stating their intentions: A Global Reset.

Ps. Just reading Ray Dalio’s book, Principles, and his experience of October 1987 – Bridgewater actually made a killing by being short the markets!

#121 Faron on 10.20.20 at 12:34 am

#101 Trojan House on 10.19.20 at 9:19 pm

#17 Faron on 10.19.20 at 2:35 pm

This is good news, no?

Anyone not dying of COVID at the hands of irresponsible Trumpian spreaders is good news.

There are three rejoinders to your view regarding flat death rates.

1) How good are young people at keeping their germs to themselves? Yeah… 20 somethings get it, 45 somethings get it, 70 somethings get it in a chain of infection. That’s why the whole “why don’t we just isolate the elderly” argument fails. You can’t isolate people. Ask anyone who has an ageing parent or grandparent or who is one and they will tell you that months of not seeing loved ones is pure hell.

2) cases -> hospitalizations -> deaths all with a couple weeks lag in between each due to infection timelines and reporting delays. What follow are local minima.
— Cases bottomed Sept 13th the US
— Hospitalizations bottomed Sept 24th
— Deaths bottomed last week and are just starting to tick up again. Watch that space.

3) It’s still 740 unnecessary deaths PER DAY in the US! The equivalent of 4 or 5 737s crashing each and every day for weeks now. In Canada, to put a very fine point on it, roughly one junior hockey team bus crash each and every day. Each of those lives, even if elderly, even if they may have passed within years, had potential and brought light to numerous people. Pull your head out. Three 737 maxes went down over the course of a year and it rightly completely wrecked a major corp and put airlines on their heels. Three total. There’s nothing inordinate about seeing 700+ of your countrymen dying each day of a disease we know how to minimize and thinking, maybe, there’s a problem.

Oh, and nonplused, if you read this, if 16 people died a day in massive bus accidents in Canada, you damn well bet there would be some banning, inquiries and etc.

#122 C V on 10.20.20 at 12:58 am

Hey Garth, today the national post reported 200,000 cases to date of covid in Canada. Would you divide that by 37 million and remark on the % that you get? How about deaths – 9714 I think divided by 37 million. I mean, what the heck….
****************************
0.0002621621%

Or, expressed another way, 9,714 grieving families. – Garth

————————————————————–

yes, most of which would have grieved in a short period of time because most of the deaths are people in their very late years. It is important to remember those who have experienced loss, but also important to look at the big picture and the cascade of impact dealt by deficits, lockdowns, elderly unable to visit family etc… Suggesting that the numbers are somehow of less importance or shouldn’t be recognized because people died is silly

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.20 at 1:14 am

@#99 Ponies Prancing
“I get my China News from Fairchild TV and South China news based in HongKong.
And my partner has family in China.
Remove your ideological blinders.”

++++

Ahh yes.
The Hong Kong “media” that have been kidnapped and released, “arrested” and released….
Methinks the rest of the media in HK are wondering….”who’s next?”

The arrogance of the Chinese Communist party is only surpassed by their propaganda.
They think tossing billions of dollars and contracts all over the world to build the “Road and Belt Initiative” would engender the masses to love them……

Well the US has spent Trillions of $$$$$ over decades to woo the masses into the embrace of democracy……and all it took was 4 years of an obnoxious President to burn those bridges…..

Unfortunately Chinese citizens actually believe the “Wolf Warrior” movies series ( China’s version of Top Gun 30 years after the fact) are real….and jingoistically cheer on the chinese “hero” as he whips American ass.

As I have drearily predicted over the past two years…..
WWIII will start in Taiwan or the South China Sea in less than 5 years.

#124 DON on 10.20.20 at 1:19 am

I like the blog picture. Has to be the early 80s?

Just found out my neighbour past away the other day. Solid elderly gent…good old stock…been a pleasure knowing him.

Your are right Garth one death leaves a void.

People need to do their human duty to keep others safe as evey death matters to someone COVID or no COVID.

#125 John Caine on 10.20.20 at 2:10 am

Leftists ” Elites” are using Covid as an “opportunity” to kill off your way of life and install another. Think it’s time foil Hat talk? Listen to them in thier own words as they post apocalyptic rhetoric and hate. What is it about? Replacement populations living off the fat of a dead civilization until true climate change can be sanctified. You say ” that’s crazy”, but listen as the ” leaders” plot to steal your assets, rip your children out of your arms and subvert you to a ” new religion” .

And hey, don’t get mad at me if theses crazies offend you. It’s them plotting, not me.

https://www.facebook.com/57886636727/posts/10157744128726728/

#126 David Vaine on 10.20.20 at 5:21 am

https://www.facebook.com/57886636727/posts/10157744128726728/

“Covid is an opportunity” Where did you hear that? Did Trudeau day it? Yes, but he’s regurgitating what the leftist elite have been saying for months. The elites want to take away your freedoms and impose a draconian NWO . Think I’m making this up? Listen to them !!

#127 maxx on 10.20.20 at 7:39 am

@ #19

Agree. Either MMT needs an overdue name tweak, or it’s only what its acronym states: a theory.

We’re all guinea pigs in this indiscriminate money-spraying experiment.

Conclusion to follow. Problem is, the longer this theory runs rampant on the global economy, the less immunity said economy has to withstand further shock – and the shocks all seem to be huge and spaced increasingly closer together.

Far too much cash sloshing around for too many fools to borrow and waste. As long as the status quo of this methodology persists, the global economy will be dragging its miserable heels along the path of inequality, and that is not good, as we’re witnessing. The bulk of people are not happy.

#128 Simon on 10.20.20 at 7:43 am

Situational ethics, eh? Garth I notice you remain silent on the story unfolding in Indian country in Nova Scotia right now. You were quick to call First Nations folks in the west terrorists for defending their homes and way of life but you stand silently by watching terrorism in real time perpetrated by Lobster fishers. While the RCMP mounted a military response against first nations in the west they stand idle as white fishers engage in terrorist activity. Yes I know it would be bad for your business in Nova Scotia to speak up, much easier to lob a grenade from a safe distance. As an indigenous person living near Saulnierville who reads your post from time to time for financial reasons even though you choose often to delve into twisted social comment you need to be called out for your hypocrisy. You will delete this post as you usually do but not before having read it so as you said to me at the time “they are terrorists suck it up”.

Maybe you noticed, not a lobster blog. – Garth

#129 the Jaguar on 10.20.20 at 8:27 am

Be sure to catch page A13 in today’s National Post where Rex Murphy and another columnist trash Twitter and Facebook for suppressing the New York Post story that Canadian media also suppressed. Never think you are living in a democracy……here is a ‘snippet’:

“”Most of us already knew Twitter could be pretty disgusting. Knew already of its vulgarity, its meanness, and its Twitter mobs who swarm- attack and cancel individuals and companies.

Now we also know it is false. False to its “ideals” of open communication, non-bias, neutrality.

It has demonstrated hostility to the flow of information in the greatest election in the world. That’s beyond disgusting. It is an insult to democracy, and the people of that democracy.

It is arrogant, it is wrong, and it should be made to answer for its despicable behaviour.

TWITTER IS NOT THE COMMUNIST CHINESE GOVERNMENT.”””

Amen.

The NYT reported that Post reporters refused to have their bylines published on the Biden ‘laptop’ story because it seemed fake. Do you have a comment on that? – Garth

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.20 at 8:28 am

@#128 Simple Simon
” As an indigenous person living near Saulnierville who reads your post from time to time for financial reasons even though you choose often to delve into twisted social comment you need to be called out for your hypocrisy.

++++
Ah yes.
Hoist the “racism” petard….because its so easy to say and takes hours to defend.

Perhaps you should read the Halifax Examiners excellent 3 day series on the reasons behind the native fishing industry?

https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/troubled-waters/

The Coles Notes version?
“Marginal Fishery” to sustain family vs “Commercial Fishery” to get rich.

The govt bureaucrats, the politicians, the courts. the DFO are all the first people to blame…..not the frustrated fishermen watching their livelihood, their businesses, their future being squandered in the name of “political correctness”….

Trudeau has dug himself into quite the political outhouse.
It will be interesting to see how he gets out without covering himself in dung from the previous hole…….

#131 Love_The_Cottage on 10.20.20 at 8:31 am

Airbnb poised for growth and profitability:

https://www.profgalloway.com/airbnballer

#132 the Jaguar on 10.20.20 at 9:12 am

‘The NYT reported that Post reporters refused to have their bylines published on the Biden ‘laptop’ story because it seemed fake. Do you have a comment on that? – Garth’

The New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC are all anti-Trump, so I am not surprised ‘some reporters’ have been ‘dug up’ to voice their ‘indignation’. It’s an attempt to discredit the story. The Wall Street Journal is a more trusted newspaper, so will be interesting to see what they publish about it. Story aside, it doesn’t excuse the attempts of major media to suppress it, and Jack Dorsey of Twitter admitted as much. “Straight blocking of URLs was wrong, and we updated our policy and enforcement to fix.”. Hard to also forget the tape of Joe Biden bragging about having the Ukrainian Prosecutor fired. That story has also been largely suppressed by major media outlets. It’s George Orwell’s 1984 unfolding.
I’ll just be popping the popcorn in two weeks, glued to the election results.

Failing to re-report a story that many journalists have doubts about in terms of its veracity is not suppression. It’s common sense. The lead writer on the Post story declined to have his byline associated with it. Seems relevant. I did not take you for a Trump apologist. Interesting. – Garth

#133 the Jaguar on 10.20.20 at 9:16 am

Can’t resist also adding this comment from the resignation letter of Bari Weiss, formerly of the New York Times. She pulled the plug a few months ago….

‘ Instead, a new consensus has emerged in the press, but perhaps especially at this paper: that truth isn’t a process of collective discovery, but an orthodoxy already known to an enlightened few whose job is to inform everyone else.

Twitter is not on the masthead of The New York Times. But Twitter has become its ultimate editor. ‘

Says a lot.

#134 NSNG on 10.20.20 at 9:27 am

I’m thinking Garth looked like that when he was twelve too… :D

#135 Dharma Bum on 10.20.20 at 9:47 am

Interesting economic and financial information today.

However…

let’s get back to the most SERIOUS issue facing the poverty stricken, jobless, bankrupt, downtrodden, destitute, hungry, disoriented, sick, shiftless, disheartened, hopeless, stressed and confused populace:

What is going to be done about the extreme and serious tragedy of cancelling Halloween trick-or-treating this year???

I mean, it is serious and dire enough to take up the time of a press conference yesterday with Doug Ford, his ministers, and the horrible…I mean honourable John Tory.

Jeeez.

#136 TurnerNation on 10.20.20 at 9:47 am

It’s going to be a cold winter Comrades. For your health we must stop the spread of Capitalism. Closing small businesses keeps us healthy, there is no other way. For the Great Reset we must do this.
The State owns your health; you are helpless toward better health. Only the State can keep you healthy via removal of rights and freedoms and business.
Time to hit the small and rural areas too. Close those family businnesses.

Did you ever think you’d see a time when the enemy has completely infiltrated us from within? Many refuse to believe it. Many more will go along with it – mortgages to pay. Simple.

“OTTAWA — With COVID-19 cases rising in eastern Ontario, the region’s top doctor warns Alexandria, Cornwall, Casselman, Hawkesbury, Clarence-Rockland and other areas of eastern Ontario could roll back to a modified Stage 2.

There were 86 new cases of COVID-19 in the Eastern Ontario Health Unit region over the last seven days. The high was 23 new cases on Thursday.”


Which leads to

https://outline.com/KkACjT
Majority of gun fatalities in Ontario are suicides by older men in rural areas, new study finds
The research, released Monday in the Canadian Medical Association Journal, looks at firearm-related injuries and deaths in the province between April 2002 and the end of 2016. Of 2,700 fatalities in that period, 68 per cent were due to self-harm — and most were middle-aged or older men living in rural Ontario across all income levels.

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.20 at 10:00 am

@#133 The jag
“Bari Weiss, formerly of the New York Times. She pulled the plug a few months ago….”

+++

Bari Weiss’s resignation was due to the pervasive political correctness infesting The New York Times.( and most other left leaning publications)
Many of her co workers keep their mouths shut and their heads down to save their jobs.

The Times, The Post, etc etc etc ultimately answer to their shareholders to (gasp) make a profit.
Otherwise the venerable broadsheets would be gone.

Put another way, they, like Fox News, know their audience and pander to them.

Propaganda, both left and right is not dead.

#138 the jaguar on 10.20.20 at 10:22 am

I am not a Trump apologist. But I do think Biden unworthy of the job.

#139 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.20.20 at 10:53 am

#115 Squire on 10.19.20 at 10:59 pm
#103 Chimingin on 10.19.20 at 9:24 pm
Covid blah blah aside, I’m really angry that Queen’s U dropped PM MacDonald’s name from their law building. What tf is happening in this country?

——————————————–
Read up on Bolshevik Revolution – we can learn alot from that. However, don’t expect poorly educated Canadian voters to care. They would rather smoke their legalized cannabis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Revolution
————————
The Cold War is over.
You can come out of your bunker.

#140 RyYYZ on 10.20.20 at 10:57 am

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.20 at 6:55 pm
This news just in:
China’s Q3 2020 came in at +4.9%.
Covid related news:
China has almost no new cases. During the recent fall holidays, about 500 million Chinese were travelling freely throughout China.
My conclusion:
Strict lockdowns of hotspots, quick contract tracing and masks are working.
===================================

Unfortunately, quick, decisive focused actions like this seem to be something our leaders and institutions are incapable of. 7 months in and we still don’t have effective quarantine and monitoring of people (re-)entering the country. If you’re lucky they might tell you to self-isolate for 14 days, and someone might call and follow up after a few days.

I’m not saying that I admire or that we should emulate the Chinese system, but clearly they at least have competent people making some of these decisions, and aren’t letting an excessive deference to personal freedoms keep them from doing what needs to be done. We could certainly do more, and better, without infringing on anyone’s actual rights (as opposed to people’s fantasy right to do whatever the f#[email protected] they want and screw everyone else).

#141 Don Guillermo on 10.20.20 at 11:02 am

#112 The Woosh on 10.19.20 at 10:32 pm
#63 mj on 10.19.20 at 6:01 pm
follow me for a minute. Trump said he will leave the states if he loses to Biden. Trump moves to Canada and becomes a Canadian citizen. Trump runs for Prime minister and wins. How does that sound?

——————————————————

Sure thing, that’s just what Canadians need! At the ripe old age of 85. He’s not like a fine wine that gets better with age…more like vinegar. I don’t like a lot of what JT has done lately but I’ll take him any day of the week over that old wind bag!!!
****************************************

… and this gives our State broadcaster the smile of success.

#142 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.20.20 at 11:16 am

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.20 at 10:00 am
@#133 The jag
“Bari Weiss, formerly of the New York Times. She pulled the plug a few months ago….”

+++

Bari Weiss’s resignation was due to the pervasive political correctness infesting The New York Times.( and most other left leaning publications)
Many of her co workers keep their mouths shut and their heads down to save their jobs.

The Times, The Post, etc etc etc ultimately answer to their shareholders to (gasp) make a profit.
Otherwise the venerable broadsheets would be gone.

Put another way, they, like Fox News, know their audience and pander to them.

Propaganda, both left and right is not dea
———————
Did you just arrive on this planet?
News outlets all over the world have always pandered to their audiences.
That’s why I don’t read the National Post.

#143 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.20.20 at 11:25 am

138 the jaguar on 10.20.20 at 10:22 am
I am not a Trump apologist. But I do think Biden unworthy of the job.
—————
The Jag seems like a smart and informed poster.
Would be interesting to see where he really stands.

#144 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 10.20.20 at 11:48 am

I think if the Trump campaign really wanted traction on the HUNTER Biden emails, they should have been released earlier. Bannon was already bragging about possessing them back in September.

Releasing sketchy emails through Giuliani, of all people, two weeks before the election and expecting media across the spectrum to write daily stories about their attempts to authenticate or verify the emails? Yeah, most media outlets aren’t going to fall for that again after the events in the waning days of the 2016 campaign.

On the other hand, if you can whip the right wing into a froth about every other media outlet giving it minimal coverage, and the big internet media networks “suppressing” it, then I guess you’ve got a story. Giuliani is too senescent and unself-aware to come up with something like this, but Bannon and Stone have still got the chops.

I didn’t think I’d see the day where conservative commentators would essentially call for Commissars to be installed at Facebook and Twitter — issuing edicts about what couldn’t be published and what MUST be published, but here we are. The unthinking base laps it up and amplifies it. The President calls a reporter a criminal, on camera, for not covering it to his satisfaction.

P.S. If you don’t like how BIG MEDIA is covering a story, you can, for a small charge on your credit card, start up your own media company, with instant worldwide distribution, and cover any story you want, any way you like (excluding libel or hate speech). The government won’t knock down your door, it won’t “suppress” you, and it won’t throw you in jail for an unpopular opinion. It’s never been easier!

#145 Joe on 10.20.20 at 11:55 am

What’s the point of having a public blog if you delete comments that are strictly constructive criticism that have a view that doesn’t align with yours? Not sure why my comment got deleted. I wasn’t disrespectful in my post. If this is a blog for limited followers of you then I’ll stop visiting. Just let me know.

No delete took place. – Garth

#146 Squire on 10.20.20 at 12:15 pm

#133 the Jaguar on 10.20.20 at 9:16 am
Can’t resist also adding this comment from the resignation letter of Bari Weiss, formerly of the New York Times. She pulled the plug a few months ago….

‘ Instead, a new consensus has emerged in the press, but perhaps especially at this paper: that truth isn’t a process of collective discovery, but an orthodoxy already known to an enlightened few whose job is to inform everyone else.

Twitter is not on the masthead of The New York Times. But Twitter has become its ultimate editor. ‘

Says a lot.
================================
It sure does…..
https://www.bariweiss.com/resignation-letter

#147 Alex on 10.20.20 at 12:17 pm

“ Covid is getting worse thanks to Trump”. What do you base this conclusion on? Is it maybe that the number of PCR+ people is on the rise, which can also be due to inactive virus, or any other bacterial and viral infection? Not denying the presence of it but denying the numbers based purely on such pcr tests. Sources for my claims: CDC, WHO
CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) PCR Diagnostic Panel (July 13, 2020)
https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download
Page 2:
“Positive results are indicative of active infection with 2019-nCoV but do not rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected may not be the definite cause of disease. Laboratories within the United States and its territories are required to report all positive results to the appropriate public health authorities”.
Page 38
• “Detection of viral RNA may not indicate the presence of infectious virus or that 2019-nCoV is the causative agent for clinical symptoms”.
• “This test cannot rule out diseases caused by other bacterial or viral pathogens”.
Page 39
“Since no quantified virus isolates of the 2019-nCoV are currently available…”

WHO (October 5, 2020) – infection fatality rate (IFR)
“Our current best estimates tell us that about ten percent of the global population may have been infected by this virus.”
Source (click on the link, then click “Session 1” and skip to 1:01:33 to hear the exact quote):
https://www.who.int/news-room/events/detail/2020/10/05/default-calendar/executive-board-special-session-on-the-covid19-response
The global population is roughly 7.8 billion people, if 10% have been infected that is 780 million cases. The global death toll currently attributed to Sars-Cov-2 infections is 1,061,539.
That’s an infection fatality rate (IFR) of roughly 0.14%. Right in line with seasonal flu and the predictions of many experts from all around the world.
0.14% is over 24 times LOWER than the WHO’s “provisional figure” of 3.4% back in March. This figure was used in the models which were used to justify lockdowns and other draconian policies.
In fact, given the over-reporting of alleged Covid deaths, the IFR is likely even lower than 0.14%.

Bulletin of the World Health Organization (Published Oct 14, 2020) – Infection fatality rate of COVID-19
The end of conclusion (Page 1): “The inferred infection fatality rates tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic”.
https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

#148 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.20 at 12:20 pm

@#142 Ponzie’s Planet
“Did you just arrive on this planet?”
+++

Yes.
I was on yours for a fact finding mission but decided Planet Earth was far more enjoyable.

#149 Diamond Dog on 10.20.20 at 12:21 pm

Ah, the humbled wisdom that comes with experience and good will. I love this blog. Wuff!

#150 Tanya Dash on 10.20.20 at 12:22 pm

Hey TurnerNation, one step closer for everyone forced to get the chip implanted in our body or where ever else they decide. Digital ID’s means we are all prisoners in the world prison, just like corona virus lock downs.

I would not be surprised if this post is not allowed.

#151 SoggyShorts on 10.20.20 at 12:25 pm

#116 Elon Fanboy on 10.19.20 at 11:12 pm
Bizarrely yesterday Biden called a press lid until Thursday, ie. no appearance until the debate. Unprecedented this close to an election. Conjecture that he is hiding from questions about his son’s emails and personal involvements. Interesting to note that he has not flat out denied it.
******************
Interesting that you think he hasn’t.
I strongly recommend that you watch the NetFlix Docu-drama
“The Social Dilemma” and see just how you’re being sucked down the rabbit hole.

I read your post and my first thought was
“That does seem odd- quite unlikely in fact” so I did a google search for
“Does Biden deny” and got all of Tara Reid stuff
changed it to
“Does Biden deny hunter”

And there it was, the first result:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/14/joe-biden-denies-meeting-burisma-official-purported-hunter-biden/

Second result
“we have reviewed Joe Biden’s official schedules from the time and no meeting, as alleged by the New York Post, ever took place.”
https://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/andrew-bates/

My guess based on your posts is that you tend to search
“Biden campaign won’t deny emails” and surprise, you get articles that match your search. That’s how google&twitter&facebook all work, they give you the results you want. If I had searched
“Biden campaign won’t deny allegations” I might have found the same as you.

The echo chambers that each of us inhabits are reducing our abilities to think clearly.
It’s really really important to stop and think before diving down the rabbit hole of misinformation on the internet.
The simple rule is: if it seems surprising (like someone running for POTUS not denying a scandal) then it probably isn’t true. We’re still capable of sniffing out bullshit if we want. I mean really think about this one:
There are only 2 possibilities
1.He didn’t do it
2.He did do it
If #1 he’d deny it. If #2, he’d probably still deny it with just 2 weeks to go before the election, wouldn’t he?

Look at Trump’s $750 tax bills.
There are only 2 possibilities
1.He didn’t do it
2.He did do it
If #1 he’d deny it. If #2, he’d probably still deny it with just 2 weeks to go before the election, wouldn’t he?

But if you google just right, you can get any answer you want, especially once you develop a pattern of bad search habits.
“Trump’s tax leaks are fake news by Qanon”
will get different results than
“Proof that Trump committed Tax Fraud”

#152 forgotmyusername on 10.20.20 at 12:38 pm

Failing to re-report a story that many journalists have doubts about in terms of its veracity is not suppression. It’s common sense. The lead writer on the Post story declined to have his byline associated with it. Seems relevant. I did not take you for a Trump apologist. Interesting. – Garth

————

To hell with Trump, and Biden. I mean it! From my perspective, one is an anomaly, the other a pawn. Blips in the pantheon of current events.

The bigger problem is how tribalism is ripping America apart and how tribalism has gutted the fourth estate. (Don’t worry Canada. You’re next.)

For anyone with eyes to see, the lines have been drawn. One MUST report in support of their side’s anointed one and tear down the opponent. By any means necessary.

“Your side” will rip you to shreds, if you dare to stray. You will become a pariah. Personally shunned, professionally damaged, if not destroyed. It works. No one wants to die that horrible death.

That is why “many journalists have doubts” when any threat to their sides’ chosen narrative crops up.

Real journalists get excited when they smell a story. Real journalists roam dark alleys to uncover facts. Real journalist run any story they can verify and let the chips fall where they may.

Trump gets asked about everything he’s ever done, said or thought. Everything.

Case in point: Trump’s tax returns were fair game earlier this month, and there’s no way those were obtained legally. So if that is fair game (and it is!) why is there so much pearl-clutching about the providence of Hunter Biden’s laptops?

Isn’t it ….interesting that Hunter Biden, or his father, could easily assert: Those were not Hunter’s laptops. The emails are false. These allegations are untrue. Joe Biden has never profited from Hunter Biden’s connections. And yet, they have not made those easy, EASY statements. Instead we get legal-speak about how inappropriate meetings have not been found on Joe Biden’s official schedule (!)

How curious it all is! Any real reporter, editor or publisher should be drooling over a story that ripe with possibilities.

But no. Instead candidate Joe Biden gets to hide, for days at a time, with a few hardball questions like what his favorite flavour of ice cream may be. (I am not making that up.)

Smoking gun? Or smear campaign? How about some reporting to find out?

Just do it evenly for both sides. Same rules, same heat.

Why is that too much to ask?

Why does wanting that make me some bad person, of suspect values?

Of course the timing of these bombshells is convenient. Of course the public is being played. But both sides pull these stunts. Why pretend only one side does?!

The real scandal is the disgraceful decline of honest reporting, something that harms everyone.

And, no, Mr. Turner. You’re not going to see, or understand, the severity of that problem if you only consume outrageously biased coverage from the likes of the NYT, WaPo, CNN or MSNBC. Oh, and why stop there? NPR and CBC are on that side too.

News silos exist. See who got coverage of the controversial NY Post story, and who did not:

https://ground.news/article/da841f8b-3bdf-4a1b-b836-6af6e915ec66/emails-reveal-how-hunter-biden-tried-to-cash-in-big-on-behalf-of-family-with-chinese-firm

Most readers of this blog would not respect someone who only watched FOX. That would be perfectly reasonable!!

What many have failed to grasp is that the aforementioned outlets now practice FOX-style journalism while pretending that they stand with the facts and that democracy dies in darkness.

And many, many readers of this blog do not know, or do not care, that social media was just weaponized to try quash the NY Post story. Twitter disgraced itself. And only “the right” seems to care.

Why? Who gave Jack Dorsey that power? How else will that power be wielded?

If you think it was fine to control information because “Trump bad”, will you feel the same way if that level of power is ever turned against your preferred candidate, or party?

My gosh! Dismissing real issues under a snide swipe about being a Trump apologist? It’s amazing. Trump is so incredibly distracting that the bigger damage to democracy becomes…invisible, whilst happening in plain sight.

Tribalism and the destruction of objectivity are bigger issues than who wins the next election.

Actually I couldn’t care less about Hunter Biden, nor do most Americans. He’s not running for anything and this will have zero impact on the election. I read the Post story, and fear for anyone who believed it. As for the Jaguar, she is a brilliant poster. But she has a blind spot. Not alone. – Garth

#153 Sorina Romanov on 10.20.20 at 12:45 pm

April, what they are sacred of showing how crappy our universal, socialist healthcare system really is. Like everything government touches it turns to crap.

Moved to Canada many years now, I am originally from Romania lived during the communist years in the 1970’s, early 1980’s and remember just to get a little food in long line ups was such a disaster. When governments get too much involved like now, it always ends up in disaster.

#154 Love_The_Cottage on 10.20.20 at 12:49 pm

#150 SoggyShorts on 10.20.20 at 12:25 pm
#116 Elon Fanboy on 10.19.20 at 11:12 pm

I strongly recommend that you watch the NetFlix Docu-drama
“The Social Dilemma” and see just how you’re being sucked down the rabbit hole.
___________
The one thing that struck me from that show what that if you start typing “Climate Change is” google will fill in the rest with different answers depending on your history AND your location. Confirmation bias for sure.

#155 mike from mtl on 10.20.20 at 12:54 pm

#140 RyYYZ on 10.20.20 at 10:57 am

Unfortunately, quick, decisive focused actions like this seem to be something our leaders and institutions are incapable of. 7 months in and we still don’t have effective quarantine and monitoring of people (re-)entering the country. If you’re lucky they might tell you to self-isolate for 14 days, and someone might call and follow up after a few days.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Not sure where you’re getting that feeling from. Recently my employer had a senior executive move back to Canada and the mandatory 14 day self-quarantine.

They were on him calling twice a day checking in and making it perfectly clear not answering CBSA means 700k+ fine or 6 months jail.

#156 Barb on 10.20.20 at 12:55 pm

“Trump moves to Canada and becomes a Canadian citizen.”
—————————–

Bite your tongue!

#157 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 10.20.20 at 1:21 pm

How well the press investigates some emails would be very important if there were more than 37 undecided voters left in all America, and especially if any of them lived in swing states. But alas.

What I have seen is some people admitting on Twitter that they voted for a third party candidate.

#158 Elon fanboy on 10.20.20 at 1:34 pm

#151 Soggyshorts…” “Biden campaign won’t deny allegations” I might have found the same as you.”

I said has Biden denied the allegations, not his campaign.

Someone needs to directly ask Biden a very simple question.

Are those his son’s emails or not?

If they are then they appear to show Biden family financial networks taking payments and payoffs from foreign governments to influence U.S. policy.

Do you mean like foreign officials paying to stay in Trump properties while he’s in office? I think this thread needs to end. Too stupid. – Garth

#159 Faron on 10.20.20 at 1:51 pm

#119 Uncle Charlie on 10.20.20 at 12:11 am

just honestly would like to know why you believe this info to be incorrect

I’m first going to ask that you acknowledge that this is an impossible task. If I point out how and why the information under those links is wrong, you will accuse me of bias or being a tool of the MSM or of being part of a research framework that has an agenda. None of those things are true. If I agree with what’s stated, you’ll likely take it to mean that human driven climate change is a hoax. My initial take of the website is that it’s heavily invested in somehow proving that solar activity is driving climate variability and change. The radiative forcing from solar variability (different from long-term orbital variations) is far outstripped by that associated with greenhouse gasses. Yes, the little ice age was associated with a minimum in solar activity as well as an abundance of volcanic activity. These same things will have a small effect on our climate into the future, but they are a ball peen to the sledge hammer of CO2, methane and water vapour feedbacks.

I’m willing to leap in regardless, but I ask you to keep an open mind and believe me when I tell you that I understand this stuff very well.

1) https://electroverse.net/earths-temperature-plunged-in-march/

This is a “so what” kind of event. Look at the data. There are frequent fluctuations of the same size likely due to weather and sampling error. That is why the data are presented with a 13 month running mean. What you see is an overall warming trend and fluctuations every several years that correspond with El Nino or La Nina conditions. After the March plunge, the temperature record stabilizes. No big deal.

https://electroverse.net/greenlands-smb-gained-6-gigatons-yesterday-nh-snow-mass-above-norm/

Again, a “so what” event. The ice sheet is in a state of negative mass balance and will likely continue to be. Climate change brings us potential for increased precipitation amounts in both events and seasonal or annual average and those will lead to larger snowfalls when temperatures are cold enough.

https://electroverse.net/great-falls-smashes-snowfall-record/

This one is similar to the greenland snowfall. There’s nothing in a changing climate that prevents records on the cold side from occurring. They are less likely, but still happen. This winter in particular will be interesting as we enter a cool ENSO phase so western North America will likely have a cold snowy one.

https://electroverse.net/were-out-of-corn/

I’m not going to bother with this one. It’s almost certain that a dig into the weather data associated with planting and harvesting will bear out the so-called MSM story that it was a bad year for growing corn and that increased demand for canned foods were the culprit.

#160 Doug t on 10.20.20 at 1:52 pm

148 fartz

and that one went out of the park – HIGH FIVE

#161 Faron on 10.20.20 at 2:13 pm

#151 SoggyShorts on 10.20.20 at 12:25 pm

This is a great post. I’d also encourage people to listen to the podcast “The Rabbit Hole” which is about this same phenomenon and ends with a description of the rise of QAnon and how people find community there. The series even gets PewDiePie to sit down to discuss his experiences with the MSM’s mishandling of some of his work. It’s NYT, but give it a chance.

Ultimately, I think the issue here has less to do with politics and more to do with the alienating effects of social media and our modern lives with the social isolation arising because of COVID restrictions amplifying the whole thing and the usual frenzy of an interminable US election cycle is further icing on the cake. Trump is popular among his supporters because he gives them a strong and extremely simple to comprehend message to gather and rally around and that helps people feel good even if that message is pretty gross by broader standards.

#162 TurnerNation on 10.20.20 at 2:15 pm

Oil’s making a moonshot here.

#163 kommykim on 10.20.20 at 2:27 pm

RE: #91 cristian on 10.19.20 at 8:23 pm
Hey Garth, today the national post reported 200,000 cases to date of covid in Canada. Would you divide that by 37 million and remark on the % that you get? How about deaths – 9714 I think divided by 37 million. I mean, what the heck….
****************************
0.0002621621%

Or, expressed another way, 9,714 grieving families. – Garth

=======================================

Or if cristian had done the math done correctly for percentages…
0.02621621% death rate.

#164 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.20 at 2:46 pm

127 overdose deaths in BC in Sept…… much higher than Covid and the news media all but ignore it.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7408134/september-2020-drug-overdose-numbers/

#165 KNOW IT ALL on 10.20.20 at 2:51 pm

To: #109 Stone on 10.19.20 at 10:12 pm
#95 KNOW IT ALL on 10.19.20 at 8:32 pm
To: #75 Stone on 10.19.20 at 6:56 pm
#60 KNOW IT ALL on 10.19.20 at 5:44 pm
And so we PREPARE for the next CRASH!

———

You mean, rebalance the B&D ETF portfolio? Watch capital and dividends grow thereafter?

Yawn…you’re boring.

——-

and so is Warren Buffett. I’ll take his money over yours anyday.

———

How about going out and making your own money instead of coveting someone else’s. I’m not interested in his or yours. I’m happy with mine. I earned it and derive my satisfaction from that.

———-

Nobody asked for you opinion….mind your business.

#166 Faron on 10.20.20 at 2:55 pm

#164 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.20 at 2:46 pm

Actually, it was all over the CBC and I think even a few US outlets picked it up, or at least the continent wide horrible state of the opiate crisis.

I know you hate the doobies, but do you support safe injection sites and legalized and regulated supply? If not, why not? What are your solutions to this crisis aside from crowing about it?

#167 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 10.20.20 at 3:06 pm

#161 Faron on 10.20.20 at 2:13 pm
#151 SoggyShorts on 10.20.20 at 12:25 pm

This is a great post. I’d also encourage people to listen to the podcast “The Rabbit Hole” which is about this same phenomenon and ends with a description of the rise of QAnon and how people find community there. The series even gets PewDiePie to sit down to discuss his experiences with the MSM’s mishandling of some of his work. It’s NYT, but give it a chance.

Ultimately, I think the issue here has less to do with politics and more to do with the alienating effects of social media and our modern lives with the social isolation arising because of COVID restrictions amplifying the whole thing and the usual frenzy of an interminable US election cycle is further icing on the cake. Trump is popular among his supporters because he gives them a strong and extremely simple to comprehend message to gather and rally around and that helps people feel good even if that message is pretty gross by broader standards.

/////////

I’m gay and a centre-lefty, as are many of the people I follow on Twitter. Many Americans, especially left-leaning women, are voting for Trump because of the Dems adoption of Critical Race theory, gender ID theory, and queer theory. These regressive theories have achieved institutional capture of schools, government services, sporting orgs, etc.

Do you put your pronouns in your email signature and Twitter bio? If not, you’re a bigot and transphobe. That’s where the left is going, and why they’re bleeding out centrist support. The right wing’s stubborn denial of AGW is no more ludricous than the left wing notions that men can magically become women, or that all white people are inherently racist.

The new left is a totalitarian nightmare, and will eventually precipitate a hard right swing, but only after they’ve managed to cancel and consume their former supporters.

#168 dutch4505 on 10.20.20 at 9:41 pm

When there is blood on the streets….this is the time to buy.