First, Trump. Then Chrystia.
The world’s holding its virus-tinged breath awaiting November the 3rd and the outcome of the American election which has been as weird as expected. That crazy uncle is now being given a 12% chance of winning, while the boring old guy gets 87% odds (the latest from fivethirtyeight.com). But, who knows? 2016 was a surprise. And so far 2020 has been so predictable.
But after that’s out of the way, we’ll be dealing with the crew in Ottawa. Bloomberg reported Sunday that insiders are pointing to a Chrystia Freeland economic update/mini-budget and group hug in November. It will be the new finance minister’s first foray into, well, finances.
What to expect?
Way more spending, this time on a national pharmacare program, child care agenda, green initiatives and boodles for cities, where Covid has crashed revenues. With backing from the NDP, the Trudeau Libs are steaming ahead with the things contained in that Throne Speech (which you forgot about).
The current year’s deficit will increase to a level making the rest of Pierre Poilievre’s head melt. The shortfall for next year is already at $74 billion, and none of this new spending has even started. (The previous all-time high was Harper’s $56 billion at the height of the credit crisis. Seems quaint.)
In order to retain the Dippers in his pocket, Trudeau will likely embrace two of Singh’s demands: a return to CMHC-insured 30-year mortgages, so people can pickle themselves further in debt, and a doubling of the first-time homebuyer’s credit, so taxpayers pick up more of the closing costs on a house. The result of both of these measures? Yes, more upward pressure on prices. And more mortgage borrowing.
Here are two things to worry about:
First, our annual deficit (federal and provincial), as a share of the economy, will be the worst in the entire western world. More than Italy, Turkey. Argentina, Russia, India, America, Brazil…well, you get the picture. Nobody, anywhere, is spending money like our prime minister. So the inevitable consequences will be higher taxes, currency debasement, inflation and ultimately a sharper rise in interest rates. Mr. Bond Market is becoming aroused.
Second, mortgages are out of control. The massive deferrals of the last few months made the debt pile worse, and now this insane housing boom is pushing borrowing off the chart. Ten years ago outstanding mortgages equaled 59% of the economy. Now it’s 84%. The pointy-head analysts at UBS say Toronto is the worst bubble city in the world. With five-year mortgages at less than 2% and debt exploding higher, we’re massively at risk of any economic shock. Like another lockdown.
By the way, did you catch Benny Tal’s latest housing epistle? The CIBC economist is just shaking his head at what’s going on with residential real estate in the midst of the “worst ever” recession in Canada. It seems by pumping up prices in the teeth of economic chaos we’re making the wealth divide far worse. That’s because of who is buying properties.
The services-oriented nature of the current recession has led to a situation in which no less than 80% of jobs lost since February were in low-paying occupations, a notably higher share than in any other recession….we conclude that roughly 50% of the widely-quoted average home price inflation is due to a compositional factor in which activity in more expensive units (read: larger) is rising faster — adding to the overall average. In fact, we see this trend clearly in the rising share of ground-oriented units at the expense of high-rise units — a trend that makes sense given the nature of the crisis.
In other words, the virus nuked the jobs of blue-collar workers while millions of office workers just started their WFH episode. As rates tanked and at-home people suddenly craved more space, more nesting and bigger suburban backyards, real estate ignited. Detached properties outside the core went up. Condos went down. And the mortgages financing the action have blossomed. Historic levels of borrowing. All at rates which can only eventually go up, not down.
Being reasonable and non-hormonal, you might conclude this is unsustainable. You’re right. Canada cannot run these kinds of deficits without consequences. One of those will be upward pressure on the cost of money as the dollar devalues. And that will apply to more than $1.5 trillion in residential mortgages – even more of course, if we get 30-year amortizations back.
But wait. What if the government just forgives all the debts?
Remember that Internet conspiracy theory twaddle mentioned here last week about Ottawa locking us down again, building internment/isolation camps, then creating a debt jubilee in return for everyone handing over their property and assets? We told you to beware. That it would spread. And it has.
This was just published, down under: “Canadian politician leaks new Covid lockdown plan and ‘Great Reset’ dictatorship – Australia is part of it.”
I swear. 2021 cannot come soon enough.
152 comments ↓
But what us happening in the maritimes and the lobster fishermen?
That’s the funniest pic I have seen on this blog.
Saturday night live did a Canadian themed skit last night.
Probably the funniest one of the night.
CBC, Drake, Montreal, Celine Dion got raked.
Trudeau untouched…
M46BC
Click on 3rd link for full skit.
https://cultmtl.com/2020/10/watch-snl-saturday-night-live-spoofed-montreal-in-morning-show-sketch-bonjour-hi-last-night-drake-bowen-yang-kate-mckinnon-issa-rae-bagels-celine-dion/
Garth (or anyone else) – thoughts???
Debt (gov’t and personal) is out of control. This should lead to rising inflation/interest rates…but somebody please explain why we haven’t seen that in Japan over the last two decades? Do many old people keeping money in the bank keep rates low (supply/demand of money)??? Could it happen here?
Also, if we do get inflation and rising interest rates, what happens to stocks (or index etfs). The 70s had high rates and inflation and the US stock market did not move at ALL from 1964-1981 (huge losses in inflation adjusted terms). Resource stocks did a bit better though. If a repeat were to happen, wouldn’t that clobber all investments and a balanced and diversified portfolio would also be hit pretty hard (stocks and bonds hammered, perhaps rate-reset prefs rising a bit, but they are not a large enough component to offset losses???
Where to invest for saftey? Gold and R/E at all time highs. Raw Land? Toilet paper? Jelly beans?
But Garth, you have so much fodder for your blog withal going on!
how many have been moved over the central bank balance sheet ?
========
You Don’t Kill a Story by Killing a Journalist’
https://www.occrp.org/en/thedaphneproject/you-dont-kill-a-story-by-killing-a-journalist
golden passports update :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oj18cya_gvw&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=AlJazeeraEnglish
Two things to watch indeed.
1. Mr. Bond Market, as noted.
2. Mr. Central Bank ending its purchases of Canada Mortgage Bonds as of October 26th. No more bank off-loading of crappy mortgages to the government.
Cost of mortgages going up, availability of credit going down.
Yes, 2021 could be interesting.
Who voted for the T2 circus…… it’ll take a generation to recover from these idiots… they’ve gone so far left the NDP can barely keep up.
They’re gonna add at least a trillion to the debt….. in two years they will equal the debt since confederation..
T1 started. it…. T2 goosed it on steroids.
Why is the finance minster a journalist…. PM and finance minister with less than zero business experience.. there is no hope
behavioral modification
https://www.occrp.org/en/37-ccblog/ccblog/13225-governments-have-failed-to-learn-from-the-cambridge-analytica-scandal
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/militarys-covid-19-influence-campaign-sparks-investigation-development-of-new-rules-to-govern-information-operations
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/11329329/filing-history
Emic Consulting Limited,
Dr. Emma Briant is an Associate Researcher at Bard College. She submitted evidence to multiple investigations into disinformation and became central in exposing wrongdoing by SCL and Cambridge Analytica in 2018.
Those blue collar workers buy the same goods and services as everyone else right, its all one economy. No ones getting a free pass. The economy is in the ditch, low rates are just lipstick on a pig. Those companies with the WFH’ers well whats their revenue picture looking like ? The gov will have to turn off the spigot, rip the bandaid off or we’re all doomed.
Sounds like it could be time for that shiny metal to shine!!
“Remember that Internet conspiracy theory twaddle mentioned here last week about Ottawa locking us down again, building internment/isolation camps,……”
————-
Oh! Garth. You’re no fun. I have somewhere in a box,(I do, I do) a copy of the Vancouver Province newspaper from the 1980s with warnings of concentration camps being built in the north. I knew I should have framed it and stuck it on the wall.
Alright Canada is being sacrificed, but to who?
JT a puppet on a string.
Conspiracy theories are an easy mindset to fall into.
Having said that I can’t wait for 2022 or 2023.
Better days ahead.
Those people who still have something in the cupboard have got to ask themselves,
“What happens when the cupboards are empty and your loved ones are crying because they are miserable, hungry, and everyone is looking for someone to blame.”
How the heck does a country in the G7 get run this way?
The Libiots voted them in and will do so again.
When the name FREEland comes up. It is the LAND of where everything is FREE….Canada.
Free Pharmacare, Free Healthcare, Free money to spend. What’s not to like?
Don’t laugh, FREE always sounds good to the idiots who think some things are indeed FREE.
Garth, tell that to Todd C. Slater and some guy from Butler mortgage that interest rates are going up. They are both saying that these low interest rates are going to be here for 3 to 4 more years.
Also, a bunch of higher taxes from all level of governments will impact real estate as well as never before. I guess they don’t want to look at reality.
Welcome to Venezuela North.
I swear. 2021 cannot come soon enough.
I keep hearing how people will be glad when 2020 is over. Sorry to say though, it’s not the year, it will be the entire decade. Global communism is and has been being rolled out right before our eyes.
Today’s truth was a laughable ‘conspiracy theory’ not so long ago
TurnerNation has been spot on with his posts. I only wish they were fiction
“Canada cannot run these kinds of deficits without consequences. One of those will be upward pressure on the cost of money as the dollar devalues.”
A couple other consequences……GOLD and GUNS
https://theconversation.com/why-canadians-and-americans-are-buying-guns-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic-135409
I know better! However, desperate times spawn desperate hopes. So here is to hoping MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) works.
I can’t reveal my source but Garth it will be 35 year mortgages for everyone except 40 year mortgages for new first time home buyers only.
Also, I am hearing a one-time $2,000 housing grant for all for first time home buyers too. These are both Liberal and NDP policy idea.
I’m not worried. Debt is invisible. Everyone has it and nobody cares. Get your bling now. Everybody can see that. Never a better time to borrow. Never a worse time to save. Government bailouts guaranteed. Spock out.
Is our technocratic globalist Prime Minister sacrificing Canada to Mammon?
Can’t think of any other explanation.
4 truefacts on 10.18.20 at 2:54 pm
Rising inflation leading to rising interest rates is a threat but not certainty. Ditto with dollar devaluation.
Applying the logic of the 70’s to the 2020’s is fallacy and useless conjecture.
Economics is NOT a science with any laws at all. It’s just a guess work of potential possibilities. Nothing is guaranteed.
Ignore all the noise and pathetic fear mongering from this (or any) comments section. Good idea to ignore “experts” as well. No one knows anything. Stay invested. Listen to the boring balanced and diversified advice and you’ll be fine.
MF
OK. I might be a little off the wall, but so what if the wealth gap widens? And I’m not wealthy.
Garth, I thought you ,if anyone, was above fear mongering.
What fear did I monger? Seemed like a factual post. – Garth
Canada has failed us. Why bother buying a house when your pets are not safe?:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/our-neighbour-killed-our-dog-then-the-criminal-justice-system-failed-her-and-our-family-1.5765916
#19 SWL on 10.18.20 at 3:31 pm
It’s still a laughable conspiracy theory, like all the rest.
Anyone over 10 should realize that humans and the societies we create are imperfect and fluid. That is not the same as planned chaos. Learn the difference, learn about personal bias, stop spouting this trash, and grow up.
MF
“I swear. 2021 cannot come soon enough.”
I do sincerely hope some of you survive that long.
Under Three Weeks to Global Catastrophe.
PREPARE
Wouldn’t it then be a great idea to buy a ton of American bucks and buy back CDN ones later?
Australian interest rates are currently at 0.25%, same as Canada.
They are setting the stage to go to 0.10%, possibly in November.
Reserve Bank of Australia boss…
“When the pandemic was at its worst and there were severe restrictions on activity, we judged that there was little to be gained from further monetary easing,” he said.
“As the economy opens up, though, it is reasonable to expect that further monetary easing would get more traction than was the case earlier.”
Also from the article:
“The RBA has said an increase in the cash rate will not occur for at least the next two to three years or until inflation is within the bank’s target range of 2 to 3 per cent.”
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/economy/rba-governor-philip-lowe-says-board-considering-another-cash-rate-cut/news-story/c815df620937e222f25ee919e92107fb
Had a look at the international picture.
Who’s going up, who’s going down?
All down on this list recently, except Sweden coming back from the dark side, back to zero.
Turkey, up from 8.25% to 10.25%
https://www.global-rates.com/en/interest-rates/central-banks/central-banks.aspx
The overnight rate is causing decades of sleepless nights…
M46BC
Here’s to crazy uncle Joe
Music to my ears… read it and weep boomers….change is coming.
That chunk of the Berlin Wall in front of a Legion is very cool.
As for “The world’s holding its virus-tinged breath awaiting November the 3rd and the outcome of the American election”, well…..not everybody. Some already have their Champagne on ice, i.e. “Fartzy’s totally objective, unbiased predictions….Biden will crush the Orange Orangutan.”
At least he’s passionate about it. Hopefully it’s Moët & Chandon he has on ice.
We’ll see the result in a couple of weeks. I’m going to stick with Victor Davis Hanson’s viewpoint. Here’s a link to his latest podcast for those who are interested in another point of view:
https://www.nationalreview.com/podcasts/the-victor-davis-hanson-podcast/episode-37-muscular-politics-the-burisma-scandal-and-the-scandals-scandal/
For our own backyard, it pains me to even say his name, but Jagmeet Singh represents the lowest depth of misery for this country. He is all about concealment, self promotion, and pandering to his base. In no way is he about the interests of the nation. Rather than be coy about it I’ll just come out and say it. He is public enemy number one.
As for Chrystia Freeland, (she of the ample caboose and self congratulatory overtures), she may be more intelligent than our current Prime Minister, but she marches in lockstep with him nonetheless. An unproven entity worthy of skepticism.
What’s a body to do? Keep the US Marine slogan ‘ Improvise, Adapt, Overcome’ nearby, of course. Keep also your powder and finances dry. Practice self sufficiency in all things, eat a 100 mile diet whenever possible, guard your health with the vigilance of a border collie herding sheep. Stay optimistic despite the headlines. Above all, try to be brave.
Here is hoping 2021 will be less ‘interesting’ than 2020. Unfortunately at the moment the odds are against that outcome.
As for the conspiracy, not a big surprise it has spread. People WANT to believe that ‘the government’ will both oppress those that have while supporting those that don’t. A hefty chunk of the herd is well & truly panicked, which does not lead to clear thinking at the best of times which this unfortunately is not.
For those who haven’t panicked because they are not facing a loss of income the current crisis represents potential opportunities to profit. I see the wealth gap widening as this viral craziness continues. Sadly, those whose financial acumen is less than stellar are highly likely to be worse off before this is over, if for no other reason than the fact the government will have to tax everyone to pay for this party.
There are some issues with the “great reset” leaks that keep getting referred to here.
Take for example the case of the older couple. In their 70s, they have no debt, own their house mortgage free and have no need to apply to have their debt “cancelled” in exchange for signing over all their assets.
So according to the “leaked” information, these two would be locked up as a “medical risk”
But, they are in their 70s.
They will likely be first in line for any COVID vaccine.
They will want the vaccine. They will willingly be vaccinated and will be very thankful that a vaccine exists.
So how would these two get labelled a “medical risk”?
Clearly they are not.
There are holes in this supposed “great reset” leak big enough to drive a truck through.
Sounds like total caca to me.
Well… at least Pierre Poilievre’s head will melt.
Some posters, a significant majority it seems, need to go back to the comment section of this blog around the time of the Harper Cleansing Election. Re-read your predictions, compare and contrast how that all turned out.
Ditto with 2 years ago when marijuana was legalized…go and acquaint yourselves with the various outcomes “reliably” predicted and compare to how things actually are today.
Other than Garth, I’m probably one of a very few on here that has pay stubs from 2 provincial Progressive Conservative and 1 federal Progressive Conservative election. I recall Dief, I recall the Avro…
I recall 1984 when the McDonald Commission advocated de-funding the RCMP and moving the intelligence service over to CSIS.
I recall the Red Cross in Canada being de-funded and blood services moved to, well, Blood Services Canada.
In all cases, including the introduction of national Medicare, the hue and cry was that this will be the end of Canada.
I get it, change is often difficult and almost always a bit messy, but some of all of you all need to go for a long and thoughtful walk.
Only you can chose whether you are part of the ”
spend less than you earn” crowd or the “earn more than you spend” happy folks. Trust me, there is a large difference in outcomes.
2021?
You must be off your rocker dude.
This year is just a taste of whats to come.
The Covid Fallout is just unwinding.
2021 going to make 2020 seem like utopia.
Enjoy as much of 2020 as possible.
#37 – Yeah. I’m having trouble with this, too. Gen X and millennials don’t need to be so smug. They should keep in mind that they will be beneficiaries of their baby boomer parent/grandparent estates. They should be careful what they wish for. They just might get it.
I don’t have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It’s a depression. Everybody’s out of work, or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel’s worth, banks are going bust, shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter, punks are running wild in the street, and there’s nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there’s no end to it! We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat, and we sit watching our TVs while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that’s the way it’s supposed to be! We know things are bad — worse than bad. They’re crazy. It’s like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don’t go out anymore. We sit in the house, and slowly the world we are living in is getting smaller, and all we say is: ‘Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms. Let me have my toaster and my TV and my steel-belted radials and I won’t say anything. Just leave us alone.’ Well, I’m not gonna leave you alone. I want you to get MAD! I don’t want you to protest, I don’t want you to riot, I don’t want you to write to your congressman, because I wouldn’t know what to tell you to write. I don’t know what to do about the depression and the inflation and the Russians and the crime in the street. All I know is that first, you’ve got to get mad! [shouting] You’ve got to say: ‘I’m a human being, goddammit! My life has value!’ So, I want you to get up now. I want all of you to get up out of your chairs. I want you to get up right now and go to the window, open it, and stick your head out, and yell: I’M AS MAD AS HELL, AND I’M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE!
RATM
If these changes for mortgages happen. I see another 15% increase to house prices circa April 2021….
Life’s too short to not laugh at it and us sometimes. For a much needed break from JT’s cures to all our ills (no side effects of course).
Making fun of self checkout:
https://youtu.be/qhAi_UtZx5o
And contractors
https://youtu.be/LHVjLEr8Mx8
That article is a good piece of creative writing, and I suggest that the authors have the skill to undertake writing a modern sequel to 1984. The pandemic seems to bring out the crazies on all sides (QAnon, new world order people, etc…). True, we are likely in for a tough time this winter in Canada, and there will be flare-ups, and constant reminders of the efforts we need to make in Canada to keep the lid on things, but we are in a far better position than the U.S. and some european countries. I don’t see any widescale long-term lockdowns across Canada.
i have posted ad nauseum how Canada is kaput.
to repeat; Canadians r the dumbest of the lot by a country mile
Trudeau will be re-elected…..reap what you sow
I haven’t benefited at all from CERB or CRB and I *really* don’t take kindly to the government proudly announcing more money being spent, presumably the lion’s share going to scammers and women, as is tradition in this corrupt postnational money laundering depot.
#28 Claude on 10.18.20 at 4:02 pm
——————————————–
How very very sad.
Hazel wrote an excellent piece on this story; I’m shocked and saddened at their family’s loss of Maybe.
Damn authorities…Hazel is absolutely correct in her comments about criminal acts becoming trivialized.
“I swear. 2021 cannot come soon enough.“
What makes you think it’ll be any better? Or different?
While I was reading the part about 30 year amortizations (or 35-40), I started hearing a distant wind picking up. It was the sound of air rushing in to fill the void where a gta renter once stood.
So what’s it going to be? 1.4 mil for the average gta sfd? 1.5? Do I hear 1.6? Between Covid, wfh, and now yet even more buying power fuelling the metro RE markets – I see an acceleration of folks just throwing up their hands and saying “the hell with it, I’m outta here!” That’s what you get when the government tries to help.
At some point, the RE ain’t worth it anymore. We’ve been past that point in Canadian Metros for a couple months now – we’re just filing down the last few in denial currently. After that comes fomo at getting a fast fleeting affordable place out in some hick podunk.
If Trudeau does it, it’ll turbocharge the already healthy exodus of youth out of places like the gta among non-immigrants.
I have to laugh though, if it wasn’t enough for Trudeau to cause my net tax remittances to crater to absurdly low levels, now it looks like his bird-brained policies may cause our humble back-water bunker complex to skyrocket in value too.
The only concern going forward would be a timely exit from the loonie, should Trudeau turn out to be as dumb as he probably is.
How about trusting your eyes. A guy who gets 15-20k per rally and does 3 of them a day or a guy who cant read a giant teleprompter to 10 people and then retreats to the basement. Cmon man.
Biden just called a 7 day lid on his campaign while Trump just went right into the heart of hostile liberal territory, California.
Take the vegas longs then invest it in the S&P on Nov 4, just like smoking man did in 2016.
from the leaked document:
“In exchange the individual would forfeit ownership of any and all property and assets forever…”
Forty-three years later, I still regret forfeiting my property’s mineral rights (for lack of an annual tax). I was young and broke, and had to choose between mineral rights and diapers.
Today I can afford most anything.
Except my property’s mineral rights.
Never give up anything, especially to government(s).
The real problem is the BOC bond purchase program, money printing in layman term. At what time can the BoC say, enough is enough and ask the govt to finance it’s ops by floating bonds in the international market? It would interesting to know what int rate the rest of the world is ready to accept for our bonds?
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-dog-stuck-in-tree-cat-firefighter-20191218-mkw2vzsevfg3nbnhlept2tisfm-story.html
Great picture – here’s another one!
Thanks as always Garth – (our voice of reason)
Hi Garth,
When do you think all this spending will start to devalue our dollar? Currently it’s doing pretty good compared to the start of this year.
Thanks,
Chris
I think there is a misconception about “normality”. There is expectation that things will get back to normal after covid. But what is normal? Perhaps what is normal is change because nothing stays the same forever. Perhaps the discussion should be which direction we are headed as a country and globally rather than predicting when things will revert back to “normal”.
Does it not seem to be the case that there is an authoritarian push in most if not all countries at this time? Well yes, one might answer but it is because of covid. Throughout history there is always an event or series of events that provide cover for power grabs and cause for war. One could argue that covid is the perfect cover to affect further transfer of power from the people to government.
There is always plausible reasons in the name of the common good behind unpopular policies. Governments won’t just come out and say they’re doing this or that just because they feel like it. They need to sell ruling elite dictates to their citizenry while the designers of draconian policies remain unseen and away from scrutiny and push back from the people. Governments are merely administrators of policy and not rulers of countries. People need to realize this in order to get a better understanding of the true mentality/forces behind seemingly inept and often inhumane policies, inequity, racial and political division, wars, and ongoing suffering in many parts of the world.
In a world becoming more Godless by the day, it is surprising why people dismiss out of hand the idea that their wealth and/or their rights and freedoms may be stripped from them some day. There must still be a lot of good faith and belief remaining that earthly powers have good things in store for us, the little people.
#4 – China. They own the USA’s debt, they birthed then beat COVID, they graduate more engineers in a year than Canada has in our entire country.
#39 Ustabe on 10.18.20 at 4:29 pm
Some posters, a significant majority it seems, need to go back to the comment section of this blog around the time of the Harper Cleansing Election. Re-read your predictions, compare and contrast how that all turned out.
Ditto with 2 years ago when marijuana was legalized…go and acquaint yourselves with the various outcomes “reliably” predicted and compare to how things actually are today
————
I remember thinking Trudeau would turn Canada into a SJW quagmire, and spend us into oblivion. I also recall thinking the MJ thing was doomed (at least in Ontario) because the proposed government run system would result in product costing 100’s of percent more than the street price. That’s pretty much how it turned out.
However, I also thought that if Trudeau got in, my net tax bill would go thru the roof. I was dead wrong on that one – it’s done the opposite.
Two out of three ain’t bad.
Reckless borrowing continues to be rewarded…..it is so disheartening to hear that prudent wallets get the shaft, yet again! When are these blasted debt chickens coming home to roost?
Almost forgot,(must be the bourbon), the possibility of buying opportunities over the next two or three years.
Why would that period of time be any different than any that came before?
It gets worse el Gartho. My far right leaning friends on FB are now trotting out a tender that was put out on the feds website for supplying federal quarantine camps as proof of what’s to come for the average citizen. To me it seems that the feds are going to ramp up bringing in refugees again, and can’t just throw a couple bucks in their pockets and have them run willy nilly in their host communities without quarantining first. Sadly seeds of conspiracy are finding much fertile ground as you have feared.
Does that mean I get to say this from now on in:
THREADBARE CANADA?
You know, when I talk about Canada to my relatives here in Italia their pupils dilate, they think of a land with unlimited resources, a Government that ISN’T CORRUPT and a place you can earn a living well above the World’s average.
They imagine open spaces farther than the eye can see and can stretch your legs out in and a modern bustling, rich country (3 Italia’s fit into 1 BC).
What do I tell my Italian relatives now?
I’ll wait until the mini-budget and until then:
Acqua morta in bocca.
#28 Claude on 10.18.20 at 4:02 pm
—–
Update your post, after you need to deal with saving a human life in this country. I’m here to read it.
Now we understand why Liberal MP’s are filibustering to delay the release of unredacted financial documents regarding the WE charity. A potential corruption scandal would dominate the headlines and distract from any budget statement no matter how much money Chrystia Freeland throws around. Thanks for the heads up Garth.
“I swear. 2021 cannot come soon enough.” — Garth
Stop swearing, Garth. The year 2021 will be even worse for Canada. See below.
A World Without Plastic Drinking Straws
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plan to ban plastic drinking straws in Canada is yet another example of his desire to cancel all the technological advancement that has been made by mankind throughout all of recorded human history.
Without plastic drinking straws, people will have to go back to lapping up their drinks with their tongues – the way dogs do. But think about it. How many people do you know who have tongues that are long enough to reach to the bottom of their cup? How will people be able to finish their drinks? In Justin Trudeau’s Cowardly New World without straws, a glass that is only half full might as well be empty. Such waste.
It gets even worse, of course. What about all of Canada’s many alcoholics? While I never hang out with alcoholics, I have once observed a drunk throwing up on the sidewalk outside a small-town hotel. This sort of qualifies me to write as an expert about them. If you have ever — just out of curiosity — peeked inside a liquor store, you might have noticed that the bottles are all fairly tall and all have very small necks on them. Nobody but a contortionist could possibly fit his tongue down the neck of any of those bottles. Thus, we can safely assume that plastic straws must have played an important role in the drinking lives of Canada’s alcoholics, from beer guzzlers, to winos, to liquor addicts. Now, with Justin Trudeau’s anti-straw nonsense, how are they supposed to be able to drink all their daily medicines that they need for their illness? Are they expected to spill their drinks and then lick them up? As anyone can plainly see, Justin Trudeau’s ideas are just getting more ridiculous all the time.
Worst of all, you can be absolutely certain that Justin Trudeau did not even think about any of these potential problems before he decided to ban plastic drinking straws in Canada. He is going to set Canada back all the way to the Pre-Straw Age, when people were uncouth and slobbered around like the barbarians that they really were. Clearly, he wants to outlaw all forms of civilized behavior and any attempts at gracious living. Justin Trudeau has done a lot of very bad things to Canada, but this is truly the last straw.
My wife has been house horny for long time (as an investment) I managed to fight her off for couple of years, I said, this cycle is nearing its end, lets wait for a recession, buyers market and we’ll pull the trigger then. Well, we got the recession/global depression and prices are exploding higher.
I hate to say it, but I should’ve listned to her.
I just don’t understand what is happening, I have no clue
Well, look at the bright side Garth.
If the Liberal/NDP social and economic re-engineering experiment blows UP IN THEIR FACES (actually OUR faces since we will foot the bill) the consequences will be:
No Liberal or NDP MP’s will ever be elected until a generation comes along with no memory, whatsoever.
It will be their demise.
Like Patton:
Liberal/NDP guts, Taxpayer blood.
————————
PS on the TRUMP 12% probability, recall that was:
11% more than he got last time.
So ya, it ain’t over until the robust peoplekind sings.
————————
PS PS:
There were some good one-liners today Garth, THANKS for that (where laughter turned into fear, anger as I read into the Blog).
I have absolutely no problem with spending on Pharmacare. It should have been done 50 years ago.
As a healthcare professional I have witnessed patients skip their doses or cut their pills in half as they cannot afford medications.
When they get to us they are a wreck and cost the system much, much more than you would expect. If have no problem with GST popping to 8% to enact this type of program.
Erin O’Toole put his foot in his mouth.
Decided to sit next to Kenney with no mask on.
His explanation: He just had COVID, so he can’t give it to anyone for four months, as he passed his isolation period and his understanding is, once you’ve had it, and you’ve completed your isolation, you are immune for four months.
In normal times, this would be a perfectly reasonable statement. Probably no one would notice.
However, these are not normal times.
At the moment, you are not allowed to talk about COVID. Talking about COVID is the equivalent of going to a party at Hogworts and mentioning “he who shall not be named”.
If someone talks to you about COVID, your off the shelf response should be to act frightened, tell them you are very scared, and then run and hide somewhere, while covering yourself with hand sanitizer and wearing a face mask.
O’Toole just set himself up to look like an anti-masker.
Right now, there are three types of people who are the most hated in society:
1. Anti maskers
2. Pedophiles
3. People who think that Star Trek is a documentary.
The anti maskers have made it to the top of the list. If you had three people in your home, one was a convicted pedophile out on parole, the other murdered his mother back in 1982, and the third is a known anti masker, the one you could not get anyone to be around, would be the anti masker.
Erin, what have you done?
Watch as T2 and the Jagger go out and burn another one down up on the roof of parliament, and then come back in with more ridiculous and expensive social programs to help bankrupt us with.
And no one will say a thing.
Because now Erin has made himself look like an anti-masker.
Nah Work Sunday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZgArhMHR1c
“But wait. What if the government just forgives all the debts?”
How could they do that? In most cases they are not the lender. And what debts would they forgive? Mortgages? What about all those poor sods who worked for 30 years to pay off their mortgages? Car loans? I’d better get down to the dealership before word of this gets out. Credit cards? Costco here I come and I’m gonna need to rent one of those box vans. Heck I may as well buy it on credit while I’m picking up a few new cars.
Some people truly live in the twilight zone. The sorts of things talked about here only occur during armed communist revolutions. Things look bad, but not that bad. I don’t like Trudeau one little bit but I doubt he is a Robespierre or Lenin.
And what is the government going to do with all the assets after they seize them? Houses and businesses are not money and the government already gets a pretty good cut of the revenues through taxes. In that way we are already more of a socialist country than not. Socialism is not a yes or no thing, it is more of a sliding scale based on the level of government involvement in the economy. It can be measured by the effective tax rate. In Canada the tax rate is probably already as high as it can go without killing the golden goose, so the socialist utopia is already here we just didn’t notice it creeping in over the years.
The “from each according to their ability” part is already here. The second part of the phase, “to each according to their needs” is already mostly here too in the form of government healthcare, education, welfare, child benefits, etc. I guess UBI will finish it up and we will be a fully socialist country, but I don’t expect a violent communist revolution complete with gulags and asset seizures.
#32 Flop…
“All down on this list recently, except Sweden coming back from the dark side, back to zero.”
Ah NO, they’re NOT:
“We expect real GDP to decline by 3.8% in 2020 (Sweden)”
-The Economist
https://country.eiu.com/sweden
Oddly, Threadbare Italia forecast slight POSITIVE, about 1%.
-The Economist
https://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1540073537&Country=Italy&topic=Economy&subtopic=Long-term+outlook&subsubtopic=Summary
————————–
Where do you get your info from the US no mask, no social distancing, no personal hygiene, no lockdown, Alt-Right?
Butts-o-nomics running rampant in the Big Tent Liberals whose tent enthusiastically embraces the lunatic far Left.
Apparently the McGuinty/Wynnne/Butts financial debacle in Ontariowe was just the opening act.
We are so f#cked due to idiot political “leaders”
America has a lunatic
We have an idiot
Dog help us.
#32 Flop…
PS: On Sweden…
In THEIR OWN WORDS, use Google Translate as usual:
https://www.aftonbladet.se/minekonomi/a/2GLxda/historisk-bnp-krasch-i-coronakrisen
That was the latest from them (August) and, they are still in the throws of making a new forecast.
Do you and your sources(s) know something Gov Sweden doesn’t know????
So we are renewing our mortgage – variable rate quoted as prime -.9 or 4 year fixed at 1.64 (5 year fixed is 1.8).
We’ve always done variable but seems like in this case fixed makes more sense, given everything. Thoughts?
Dolce Vita, once again you’re posting garbage and I can’t not call you out on it.
Sweden’s GDP decline this year is not known, nor is any countries because we’re in October still.
But yes, down 3.8% sounds plausible. This source predicts down 5.3%. Sounds even more plausible.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102546/coronavirus-european-gdp-growth/
Italy on the other hand, is not forecast for a slight positive by whatever you linked in 2020. I think I read that link as saying the average growth between 2020 and 2030 is under 1% annualized. Unless I’ve missed something, but why would you ever think that anyone is saying Italy is positive for 2020? Do you have a brain at all? I wonder.
On the same source above that has Sweden down 5.3%, Italy is predicted to be the worst hit European economy with GDP decline forecast at 11.2%. That sounds about right to me. Italy and Spain got clobbered and lost a year of tourism revenues which are big drivers. Especially for Spain.
Postiive 1% GDP growth for Italy?!!! How could you even type that? What am I missing? You’re not stupid, are you?
Its disappointing to see the Liberal goverment continue to elevate the real-estate industry which offers nothing of value to the world.
#72 Dolce Vita on 10.18.20 at 7:12 pm
#32 Flop…
“All down on this list recently, except Sweden coming back from the dark side, back to zero.”
Ah NO, they’re NOT:
“We expect real GDP to decline by 3.8% in 2020 (Sweden)”
-The Economist
https://country.eiu.com/sweden
Oddly, Threadbare Italia forecast slight POSITIVE, about 1%.
-The Economist
https://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1540073537&Country=Italy&topic=Economy&subtopic=Long-term+outlook&subsubtopic=Summary
————————–
Where do you get your info from the US no mask, no social distancing, no personal hygiene, no lockdown, Alt-Right?
//////////////////////
Not sure what is happening in your world.
On 19th of December 2019, Sweden raised their interest rate from minus 0.25 back to zero.
I even put a link with a chart up on it with all the dates and rates.
Can I offer you an Australian orange?
It’ll make you feel better…
M46BC
#45 yvr_lurker
I don’t see any widescale long-term lockdowns across Canada.
————————–
Canada as of today, note how positivity rate on the increase among other things:
https://i.imgur.com/TGBn9cG.png
Same positivity rate as 1st Wave Peak with way MORE new cases and I’d say the TREND is:
EXPONENTIAL.
But, keep telling yourself that. Someone has to be an optimist.
I’m afraid I’m not one after looking at that chart.
from the CDC;
99.997% survival rate 19 & under.
99.98% survival rate, 20-49 yo.
…………
time will show the gross overeaction we have made. Man could NEVER save everyone from all the little bugs. This time would be different?
damage is done. Too late, now its about saving politcal arses…spinning
There is indeed a greater divide between home owners and renters..
Can this housing surge overpower the pandemic and 15% unemployment
https://economics.cibccm.com/economicsweb/cds?ID=11610&TYPE=EC_PDF
Great post Garth
David Pylyp
Toronto
Garth, some people are renting entire homes for $4500 right now in the 416, and some are renting for $3500 in the 905. What do you recommend people do right now if ownership or co-ownership makes better sense than renting where a mortgage of $1,000,000 @ 1.64% 5 year variable, 25 year amortization translates into a monthly payment of $4065.48? If that million dollar home has gained 8-10% ROI over let’ say the last 10 years, and surely hyper inflation in the short term makes those homes year over year increase more than 8-10%, then what are we to make of the foreseeable losses in equity incurred on the whole sum of owning versus paying rent? And we are assuming the taxes and land transfer taxes are financed as well.
10%
Those were Trump’s chances of being elected at this point in 2016.
The current early vote by mail (vbm) returns, voter registration in the primaries and historical early voting patterns allow us to build a pretty good picture of where we are now in key states. Generally Dems vbm and Reps vote in person. Hence typically you see many states surge for Dems in early voting, with Rep’s catching up once in person voting starts.
Also Biden’s election manager has now said twice the 2 candidates are a lot closer than the polls are showing, and are neck and neck in some key states.
Based on current vbm returns and forecast Rep’s votes to come, Trump will take Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, Minnesota, & Texas. Wisconsin Is trending towards Rep’s ,Pennsylvania is still wide open. Another key State North Carolina is trending to the Dems, but in person voting has just started so that may change.
Bizarrely Biden has called a press lid until Thursday! I.e. no public appearances until the next debate. Very unusual this close to election day. Conjecture is that he hiding from having to abswer anything about Hunter Biden email scandal the NYPost kicked off this week.
This whole PARTIAL, TARGETED LOCKDOWN business is NOT WORKING.
And it will end up BANKRUPTING World economies with HALF MEASURES.
Blame the Italians and the Germans where that WAS working until recently. The rest of Europe and CANADA following their lead, NOT working now either in Italia and Deutschland (both in kanipshit mode about the surging cases).
Latest new cases from Europe:
https://i.imgur.com/Qgq6fRh.png
And above chart a day or so behind the latest numbers, for example yesterday’s toll rounded a bit AND ALL countries (4 of the G7) above their 1st Wave Peaks:
FR 32,500
UK 16,000
IT 11,000
GE 8,000
———————————
Either we accept MANY infections with LOW death rates AND GO ON LIVING (each person free to take their own precautions) or to STOP the DAMN VIRUS a FULL lockdown will be necessary. HALF MEASURES are clearly not working (Brits and French at it for weeks now).
Europe deaths:
https://i.imgur.com/qQFpujn.png
Yes, COVID is 3X more contagious than the flu, most countries 4th largest killer at present (way more than the flu, traffic accidents, shark attacks etc.) but now, VERY LOW deaths vs. the 1st Wave.
https://i.imgur.com/Wiix1QI.png
———————————
Govs have to ask the PEOPLE what they can live with, ALL of them and NO LONGER decide for them.
Otherwise economic recovery in 2021 with HORSESHOES up our collective derrières.
Trudeau is the jinx. He is the symbol of everything wrong. He is surrounded by incompetence. Has Canada ever had these kinds of Cabinet Ministers? And you know what, as long as a majority of the population keep getting their “free stuff” and suffer no discomfort for it, they will ignore his colossal mistakes and absence of morality. Nothing gets better until he is hobbled, whatever year.
Health Canada does not have a clue..
7 to 10 days AFTER returning to Canada, they send out notices asking how your isolation is going when NO ONE TOLD YOU AT THE BORDER TO ISOLATE. NO ONE.
Blow your money, run up your debts…the government is 1000% clueless.
The article from the Canadian Report is very believable and it would take a whistle blower to leak this type of information.
MARTIN ARMSTRONG has been warning about this for several years, and Trudeau fits into the IMF Globalist agenda, along with Mark Carney.
This government will sell out Canada to the IMF.
You scare me. – Garth
#76 Toronto_CA on 10.18.20 at 7:29 pm
Dolce Vita, once again you’re posting garbage and I can’t not call you out on it.
Postiive 1% GDP growth for Italy?!!! How could you even type that? What am I missing? You’re not stupid
////////////////////
Hey TCA, just drop it.
Not worth it.
I was giving an update on global interest rates.
Dolce saw the word Sweden mentioned and then lost the plot.
I know when people mention COVID cases in Sweden he goes after people but I was talking about interest rates.
Not sure why he then bagged myself and the United Stars as well, but he’ll probably get it if he goes back and reads my post at 32 and clicks on the provided international interest rates link.
Maybe the grappa is typing…
M46BC
Here’s the link I provided earlier.
It’s not GDP forecasts.
It’s not COVID cases.
Just boring old international interest rates…
https://www.global-rates.com/en/interest-rates/central-banks/central-banks.aspx
2020 was just a warm-up for the next 5 years. With people fighting not wearing masks and a vaccine at best will probably be 50% effective before this pandemic ends it will just continue to infect. Probably a million Americans will die. Lockdowns will not help. The numbers will not go down back to 200 here in Ontario. Maybe a sunny day in August then they will go up again. We will be wearing mask for 4-5 years. I will be watching 28 days from now if they reopen indoor dining. If they do not and keep them closed there will be an economic tsunami of bankruptcies.
#78 Flop…
STILL WAITING for YOUR SOURCES????
Apparently, The Economist and Gov Sweden (in Svenska quoted by Sweden’s largest daily) forecasts not good enough for you.
Do you have a tough time admitting your were wrong?
You certainly read as such.
And no thanks to the Oz oranges, try those from Sicilia and Calabria and you will never eat you Oz or the “selectively bred” US oranges ever again.
Then again, I am Italian and what do we know about good food when we have internationally renowned Australian cuisine to look forward to instead?
Lucky us.
#75 We are throwing in the towel and going 5 yr 1.79 Nov 1 25 year am…free money
RE: #4 truefacts on 10.18.20 at 2:54 pm
The 70s had high rates and inflation and the US stock market did not move at ALL from 1964-1981 (huge losses in inflation adjusted terms)
=======================================
What you are forgetting is that in that time period there were lots of market gyrations where someone with a 60/40 balanced portfolio would be rebalancing and making gains. Yea, fools with 100% equity portfolios would be crushed, but those with a balanced portfolio would have made gains.
my poor italian friend. If u think Canada is in trouble– have a close look at Italy
KAPUT
All the good socialists here love Joe Biden.
He has decided that our dirty oil is no good. Whether he is properly informed on the subject is of little consequence. Our oil sounds dirty to him and that is all the science he needs. Getting heavy oil from Venezuela is more politically appealing to Joe than “dirty” Canadian crude.
This is how socialists make decisions.
This will have dire consequences for you and your standard of living. “Head in the sand” Canadians really don’t care if their dollar hits 40 cents. They want their fearless leaders to borrow like drunken sailors.
One day you will run out of other people’s money.
I’m sure the budget will balance itself as we throw caution to the wind.
It was all a big joke when the first Trudeau went on a debt binge and now his son gets to play the joke on his flock. It will end the same way. Stagflation.
Canada has become the land of compensation.
Those representing the patriarchy are held responsible for everything. Every one else has no accountability for any of their actions since they are all victims.
This will not end well.
#61
These are not quarantine camps ala Comrade Jacinta in NZ where civil rights were blown to pieces. They would be places for essential / medical workers to stay and not put their immediate families at risk should they need to self quarantine. Sure beats sleeping in the garage I am sure.
Junior and ilk are a menace for sure, but not that bad at present.
I’m beginning to think that Turner Nation might be the whistleblower. Am I right TN?
#90 Dolce Vita on 10.18.20 at 8:21 pm
#78 Flop…
STILL WAITING for YOUR SOURCES????
Apparently, The Economist and Gov Sweden (in Svenska quoted by Sweden’s largest daily) forecasts not good enough for you.
Do you have a tough time admitting your were wrong?
You certainly read as such.
And no thanks to the Oz oranges, try those from Sicilia and Calabria and you will never eat you Oz or the “selectively bred” US oranges ever again.
Then again, I am Italian and what do we know about good food when we have internationally renowned Australian cuisine to look forward to instead?
Lucky us.
/////////////////
Coming here, calling Garth “My Liege” and then taking a dump on the rest of us daily is doing no one any good.
I have corrected you multiple times that my post was about international interest rates and yet you continue to double down and pretend you’re right.
Not going to bother anymore.
Love visiting Italy, lived on the border for a while.
Honeymooned there, even.
But this is not why you choose to attack people who say anything kind about other countries in the world.
I enjoy visiting Europe.
I enjoy visiting The U.S.
Just because you choose to live somewhere else doesn’t mean that you have to justify it by crapping on other nations or regions.
All regions in the world have different kinds of challenges, I don’t want to live only looking at the negative side of things.
Before COVID come along I used to enjoy reading your posts…
M46BC
No one is lining the streets for Sleepy joe…..
Two stops a day on the superspreader tour….
El presidente in a landslide!
https://twitter.com/kayleighmcenany/status/1317929348674940929?s=19
@#69 Ace goodheart
“If someone talks to you about COVID, your off the shelf response should be to act frightened, tell them you are very scared, and then run and hide somewhere, while covering yourself with hand sanitizer and wearing a face mask.’
+++++
Was waiting for the elevator today, neighbor joined me in the lobby…and we waited,and we waited, aaaannnddd we waited.
I was worried the uncrowded lobby was going to get the “gift”
The doors opened. Two people on the elevator. Two person max covid rules.
Screw that.
I put on my mask and got on. My neighbor was horrified, ” But the rules! You can’t DO that!”
” I’m not waiting another 4 minutes for a fricken elevator with 2 people on it”
The doors closed.
One guy glared at me.
I “gifted” the elevator.
No one opened their mouths.
Works every time…….
#92 kommykim
I am not trying to be difficult and was really just seeing if anyone else has an idea of what might traspire, but I’m not so sure that rebalancing would have saved you.
I mean we have to agree that interest rates went up from very low levels to a peak in the early 80s, so that would have hammered bond values (a mirror opposite to what we’ve had for almost 40 years where yields dropped and bond values soared). Stocks were also pretty crappy…are you sure you would have made money by simply rebalancing? I find that hard to believe, but I suppose it’s possible. I can’t see how investors would have finished ahead when factoring in inflation though (which was quite high)….
FEAR is the new currency- and the world is gorging at the trough
RATM
#39 Ustabe on 10.18.20 at 4:29 pm
Only you can chose whether you are part of the ”
spend less than you earn” crowd or the “earn more than you spend” happy folks. Trust me, there is a large difference in outcomes.
____________________________
I get that this is a RE, Finance, and sometimes Virus blog, and not some Coupon Clipping, Re-Use-Your-Dryer-Lint blog.
But. If you’re at the point that it seems necessary to deliver pizzas, wash dishes, and cut the neighbors’ lawns, you likely are going to want to cut some spending too (or at least prioritize it better).
Acting like your expenses are all fixed and your income can be whatever you want is disingenuous.
Of course, you’re right that most people are able to hustle some extra cash and it’s a good, positive feeling to do so (I work 2 jobs; one full time, one casual).
But “spend less” and “earn more” are not necessarily different mindsets, and certainly not opposing ones.
Polls are are wrong again!…………same script being played as 2016………and remember how that turned out!
Trump will win again with an even LARGER electoral college landslide win. Globalism fails! Paper investments fail! Housing wins because at the end of the day when investment wealth vanishes with the next market crash the housing structure and the land it sits on still exists! Housing and land are substantial and they will always be there to see, touch, feel and keep you busy working on when your investment wealth fades away.
Hang onto and monetize to safety all the cash you have made up to this point. You are going to need it going forward.
Get ready for the next decade of famine.
My family are mostly Trump voters. They are quiet about it, because people get fired or ostracized for being Trump supporters, or the social media mob descends on them. So they quietly vote. I don’t know if there are many like them, but it would seem likely. I have heard it said that being a conservative in 2020 is like being gay in 1950. Some truth there!
Cairns news would have less credibility than the rebel.
The government will do what ever it takes to keep the real estate party going. What’s next after 30 year mortgages? 40 years, 50 years, why not 100!?
Most people retiring are doing so while still paying down a mortgage.
Every new government will constantly kick the real estate hangover down the road by just extending the length of a mortgage and sell it to the masses as a compassionate ‘affordability’ plan.
No govermemt wants the correction to happen under their watch! This things grown to big to kill!
#22 Tony Santos on 10.18.20 at 3:47 pm
I can’t reveal my source but Garth it will be 35 year mortgages for everyone except 40 year mortgages for new first time home buyers only.
Also, I am hearing a one-time $2,000 housing grant for all for first time home buyers too. These are both Liberal and NDP policy idea.
—————————————————————–
Grants for 1st time homebuyers are nothing new. I got a $1000 grant back in Dec. 69 when I purchased my 1st brand new home. The grant represented 4.8% of the price. Today, on a million dollar home that would be $48,000. $2000? Chump change.
Listen, we’ve all heard the drivel that rates are going up around the corner, to never stick.
Short term when rates even get a whiff of tightening, the everything bubble sells off, there’s no hiding, stocks sell off regardless of whatever metrics, preferreds go to crap, Au tanks, RE sales dry up and even ‘safe’ bonds are the last sink to sell. Thank dog the CB have our backs and buy up all the used bicycles to keep the lie alive.
RE (or anything else) will not be on sale anytime soon that is pretty much a given. 30+ Am, grants, RE is TBTF. Even condos are not at all even under stress, should be plainly obvious but they’re still building and prices are not really accrative – let alone affordable.
@farts
If you ever write book about elevator endeavors, can you title it Agony And The Bliss.
Ill by too copys, but you cant leave your signature on any of them. OK!?
#22 Tony Santos on 10.18.20 at 3:47 pm
I can’t reveal my source but Garth it will be 35 year mortgages for everyone except 40 year mortgages for new first time home buyers only.
Also, I am hearing a one-time $2,000 housing grant for all for first time home buyers too. These are both Liberal and NDP policy idea.
—————————————————————-
Heck, in 1980 when mortgage rates were in the 15% range the BC Gov was offering 1st time home owners who had their homes built or built it themselves a maximum 10% mortgage as they would pay the difference between what the bank was charging and the 10%. Problem was that those who needed the grant the most were those who had no money and couldn’t get a mortgage anyway. Those who benefited were those people who planned to build anyway and had the money. My boss was one of them. The idea was to stimulate the housing industry and get the tradespeople back to work. That was a tough recession as I recall. I was fortunate to have a good job and not one of the 33% of the public service who got laid off.
RE: #101 truefacts on 10.18.20 at 9:38 pm
#92 kommykim
I am not trying to be difficult and was really just seeing if anyone else has an idea of what might traspire, but I’m not so sure that rebalancing would have saved you.
I mean we have to agree that interest rates went up from very low levels to a peak in the early 80s, so that would have hammered bond values (a mirror opposite to what we’ve had for almost 40 years where yields dropped and bond values soared). Stocks were also pretty crappy…are you sure you would have made money by simply rebalancing? I find that hard to believe, but I suppose it’s possible. I can’t see how investors would have finished ahead when factoring in inflation though (which was quite high)….
================================================
Yea, it’s hard to say exactly how well an investor would have done. But while interest rates did rise from 1964-1981, it wasn’t a steady climb but one with some quite steep dips as well. 1970 had a rate of 7.75% that dropped to 4.5% in late 1971. Same with 1976 at 9.25% which dropped to 7.25% in mid 1977. Then 1980 saw 15.42% which dropped to 10.2% in the same year before spiking to max of 20.78% in August 1981… So those bond values would have fluctuated like crazy also and most of the time in an inverse relationship to stocks.
This would have made rebalancing even more lucrative because you’d be selling your bonds high while buying stocks low and vice versa. Garth has talked about this ad nauseam.
I wasn’t much of an investor in those days being only in my teens, though my dad did convince me to buy a Canada savings bond that payed 20% in the 1st year and then 15% for the next 3 or so. Maybe someone older can enlighten us?
In conclusion, while rebalancing may not have “saved you” from being hit by inflation, it would have been better than holding 100% equities or 100% bonds leading up to 1981.
In your wildest imaginations you cannot fathom what is coming. Negative interest rates, yield curve control, 40 year plus amortizations, dual ownership where the government owns part of the house equity (don’t we already have that), money printing to infinity, central bank digital currencies… it will blow our minds what’s coming. Normal is gone.
Garth.
What are your thoughts about the US/Canada borders. Any ideas when they will reopen?
What about the airlines? How will they survive this COVID?
Now that Australian and Italian are in passionate debater over interest rates, here is interesting chart about when ikea, ericsson and few from h&m sad i had enough of this its vacation time…
You can click disagree on a link and it will steel work.
https://imgur.com/a/XgmT9Xw
The finger pointing has begun:
The Chinese Lockdown-And-Mask Model Failed. Now Its Proponents Need Scapegoats
Lockdown culture needs patsies to take the fall for why it didn’t work. Like every leftist social and economic experiment, its defenders are left to argue that it was never properly tried. If only it weren’t for Trump, and for the dissenters, for the Chassidic Jews in Brooklyn, for Christian weddings in San Francisco and Maine, for gyms, bars, and beaches, it would have worked.
Yet the simple truth is that the China Model hasn’t worked in any country that isn’t China.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/chinese-lockdown-and-mask-model-failed-now-its-proponents-need-scapegoats
I apologise, I read you were saying the conspiracy could be an actual real option. Then I reread it.
The Happy American, my prediction for the 2020 US election is 290 Republican seats and 248 for Democrat seats. The Republicans will keep control of the Senate.
#46 George i have posted ad nauseum how Canada is kaput.
something you will keep muttering right to your grave.
Get ready for the next decade of famine.
Wow, so many blog dogs with a certainity of the future!
scary
Whether or not we will end up with the “great reset” is irrelevant.
The issue is it is NOT a conspiracy theory. It is FACT.
it’s written all over their World Economic Forum website and is the policy of every major politician of every party, except T in the western world.
“
Sky News host Rowan Dean says people cannot be surprised when the same “authoritarian elitists” who impose lockdowns in order to reach ‘COVID normal,’ enforce the same drastic restrictions to reduce carbon dioxide. Mr Dean pointed to the ‘Great Reset’ a “quasi-fascist version of the Green New Deal” which is supported by the IMF, the World Economic Forum, and the UN and aims to “by their own admission” use the tools of COVID suppression and adapt them to the “so-called crisis of climate change”.
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6202103436001
Garth, I am not sure where you get your UBS information, but according to UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2020, it is in fact Munich that is at the highest bubble risk – by far. Toronto is high on the list, but not nearly as bad. For comparison: RE in Toronto costs on average 28 annual rents, in Munich the multiplier is 38! (Despite the fact that transaction costs are also MUCH higher in Munich.) Seriously, some of the stories I read here a mild compared to what I see at home. 800k to buy a house that would rent for 2500? Here, I wouldn’t think twice about it. These go for > 1.4M here easily.
Hmmmm
Republicans are beginning to see the writing on the wall even if Trump refuses to…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-republicans/trump-slams-republican-critic-who-warned-of-november-bloodbath-idUSKBN2720PJ
One wonders if Trump will even show up to make a speech in January’s Inauguration…to the boo’s of tens of thousands yelling , ” You are the biggest Loser!”
Toronto Condos may be the Canary in the coal mine. They are in the early stages of a significant correction. Like I said here a few months ago wait then wait some more before you buy a condo in the big smoke.
Unfortunately, condos are about the only thing we manufacture anymore, and thousands of folks work on them every day. Imagine how many people will be employed if the 95 floor/2500 Unit condo @ # 1 Yonge St gets built or not.
So it is politically important to keep the party going. And it would not be a surprise if CMHC brought back the 30 year Amortization . It cuts about $200 a month off a $400k mortgage payment.
We have a bit of a perfect storm brewing. No demand for short term rentals(airbnb)for at least a year. Renters who make it all possible are getting hurt the most in the economic crash. Offshore money has dried up, in part do to CPC restrictions. Immigration which supplied up to 100,000 new renters a year has ground to a halt. All of those market drivers can return, just not yet.
I guess this is how the govt will balance its budget
https://theprovince.com/news/local-news/b-c-government-wants-cash-found-in-stolen-safe-forfeited/wcm/817cc446-6a3d-4c3d-a3b6-a14a1320d691
I heard from a guy on the street CV-19 was planted by aliens, his dog told him apparently, overheard two aliens. Goal is to weaken the world and swoop in with a vaccine to save humanity. In exchange for vaccine, they put in their chosen human leaders, strong dictator types , to ensure effective distribution. And 5% of all GDP. I think the guy used to do computer repairs in Delaware or Maryland, somewhere down there.
I see our Forum Host posted on Bandit’s Insta-gram
https://www.instagram.com/p/CGduNKeHRGw/
The Berlin wall was taken down on 9th, November 1989.
That date is a 9/11.
What happened after that 9/11? Iraq Invasion #1 the next year.
– What happened after the next 9/11 in 2001, another Iraq invasion.
Our globalists got their plan down.
‘Voting’ – Heads they win, tails we lose.
Victoria Real Estate downtown will become worthless very soon. It seems all the drug addicts from across Canada have come here to ‘winter” Why not free hot breakfast lunch and dinner. Free designer clothes, free tents, free winter coats. Oh AND DID I MENTION FREE DRUGS AND NEEDLES. Friday I drove downtown, stopped at a stoplight at Cook and Johnson and a man was standing on the corner, almost next to my car and stuck a needle into his arm and shot up. So we have no tourists anymore and locals won’t even go downtown because they are afraid of getting stabbed. I think downtown will become a ghost town very soon. Almost is now.
@#126 Ordinary Dog
“I heard from a guy on the street CV-19 was planted by aliens, his dog told him apparently,……I think the guy used to do computer repairs in Delaware or Maryland, somewhere down there.”
+++++
The Son of Sam is out ?
Trudeau will likely embrace two of Singh’s demands: a return to CMHC-insured 30-year mortgages, so people can pickle themselves further in debt, and a doubling of the first-time homebuyer’s credit, so taxpayers pick up more of the closing costs on a house. – Garth
——————————————————————–
GUESS WHO predicted this years ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHpHkcS3vtk
@#1 Casey at Bat
“But what us happening in the maritimes and the lobster fishermen?”
+++
The Halifax Examiner has an excellent 3 piece series on the what’s and why’s of the Lobster protests.
https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/troubled-waters/
Essentially.
1. A Court case allowed a native “moderate livelihood” fishery.
2. The politicians have never allowed DFO to stop the ensuing native commercial fishery.
3. The other lobster fisherman are watching DFO allow out of season commercial fishing.
4. Politicians wring their politically correct hands and promise everyone ….everything…….
5. The result of zero rules? Boats and buildings burn.
DELETED
#84 Dolce Vita on 10.18.20 at 8:06 pm
This whole PARTIAL, TARGETED LOCKDOWN business is NOT WORKING.
And it will end up BANKRUPTING World economies with HALF MEASURES.
———————————
Either we accept MANY infections with LOW death rates AND GO ON LIVING (each person free to take their own precautions) or to STOP the DAMN VIRUS a FULL lockdown will be necessary. HALF MEASURES are clearly not working (Brits and French at it for weeks now).
xxx
Govs have to ask the PEOPLE what they can live with, ALL of them and NO LONGER decide for them.
?????????????????
So what you are saying is follow Sweden’s lead.
Finally you are starting to get it.
Thanks for the blog Garth
So the reason you published this link to Canadian Government taking all our assets is why?
Information? Worst case scenario?
So can I assume because you published this you have now moved all your clients money out of Canada and I don’t mean foreign stocks held in Canadian accounts I mean literally moved out of Canada?
If not then I ask the purpose of this post?
I understand the dire warning of Debt. I do not understand the second part about governments forgive all debts in exchange for all our assets.
As (clearly) stated, it was a warning about disinformation, extremism and online insanity. Forewarned is forearmed. – Garth
The $4B purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline looks like pretty small potatoes now. Ho hum.
The soft lockdown of Kanada continues. “Lockdown Lite”.
– Border closed – to keeps us in – while they also destroy US from the inside.
– Major airlines pulled out of dozens of markets/cities.
– No Greyhound bus.
– VIA rail routes curtailed.
– The Least Coast has been isolated, now they unleash the civil war (lobster burnings and so on)
– Can we just cancel Nov 11th already and put up the UN flag ? Appears that my grandparents had their time wasted.
– But any talk of more lockdowns and martial law is crazy talk! The Corps are enforcing it.
Remember, you are free to leave at any time.
But ensure your Certificate of Vax ID (COV-ID). Papers pleeze. We have a new Caste system
You see what they did there. Risking infection rates? Or rising ‘cases’ whereby people retain their health. Science.
– Send these guys a message and hit the fast food (blech) drive throughs?:
https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2020/10/restaurants-southern-ontario-banning-people-from-toronto/
Other establishments already battered by the pandemic are taking a similar approach in the face of rising infection rates near their communities.
The Ale House in Cobourg and Romby’s Tavern and Smokehouse in St. Catharines all announced they were limiting indoor service to locals.
Earlier this week, gym chains L.A. Fitness and GoodLife Fitness asked their clients not to travel from Toronto and Peel Region to work out at open facilities nearby.
GoodLife took the measure of freezing GoodLife members’ accounts in hot-zone regions on Oct. 10, preventing them from booking workouts in other areas.
#134 Penny Henny on 10.19.20 at 10:14 am
#84 Dolce Vita on 10.18.20 at 8:06 pm
This whole PARTIAL, TARGETED LOCKDOWN business is NOT WORKING.
And it will end up BANKRUPTING World economies with HALF MEASURES.
———————————
Either we accept MANY infections with LOW death rates AND GO ON LIVING (each person free to take their own precautions) or to STOP the DAMN VIRUS a FULL lockdown will be necessary. HALF MEASURES are clearly not working (Brits and French at it for weeks now).
xxx
Govs have to ask the PEOPLE what they can live with, ALL of them and NO LONGER decide for them.
?????????????????
So what you are saying is follow Sweden’s lead.
Finally you are starting to get it.
===================
You sure about that?
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/it-s-been-so-so-surreal-critics-sweden-s-lax-pandemic-policies-face-fierce-backlash
@#126 Finally someone who gets it and knows what is really happening. TurnerNation is clueless as to the real plan and who is really pulling the levers.
Very soon we will all see when the Aliens arrive and solve all of our problems, Covid included.
The visionary Rod Serling foretold of this plan in 1962. There is video somewhere, if you can find it that outlines the master plan To Serve Man.
Beware.
#127 TurnerNation on 10.19.20 at 9:04 am
The Berlin wall was taken down on 9th, November 1989. That date is a 9/11. What happened after that 9/11? Iraq Invasion #1 the next year.
– What happened after the next 9/11 in 2001, another Iraq invasion.
Our globalists got their plan down.
TN, I’ve enjoyed your posts. Really have. Entertaining. Sadly, a few folks were starting to think you knew something.
But…
EITHER:
9/11 = Sept 11th
(and)
11/9 = November 9th
OR:
11/9 = 11th day of Sept
(and)
9/11 = 9th day of November
It can’t be both.
And in case numerologists are lurking here, 911 and 119 are not the same number.
Numerical symbolism, yes, the Globalists would use it to…what, leave clues?
“Hey, let’s do all this bad stuff on dates with similar numbers in them, that will really confuse people!” said no Globalist schemer, anywhere, ever.
TN, you’ve exposed yourself.
@#139 Oakvile Rocks”
++++
“To Serve Man.”
++++
ITS A COOKBOOK!
#105 The Quiet American referred 1950 being a dangerous time for Gay people, it was also a dangerous time to be pro socialist as you could be blacklisted as the screenwriter Dalton Trumbo and many others were. We’ve come full circle now as a pro Trump conservative like the great American actor James Woods has effectively been blacklisted by the Hollywood establishment.
#112 Komykim…
“So those bond values would have fluctuated like crazy also and most of the time in an inverse relationship to stocks.”
This is the big doubt that I have. Buffett has said that interest rates are like gravity for financial assets. If rates go up, we all know that bond prices go down. But for investors buying stocks like BCE, the banks, pipelines, etc (for yield), if interest rates go up, then these stocks go DOWN (just like bonds). Other stocks would also decline, but not as much. I mean the inverse has happened so far – BOTH stocks and bonds have increased in value because of lower rates, so wouldn’t both go down with increasing rates? The only offset that I could see are rate reset preferreds. With what bonds pay now, it’s better to simply keep cash instead. Longer term, asset light businesses do better with inflation as their products can increase in price with little additional investment in property/plant/equipment.
RE: Currency devaluation: Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar continues to creep up towards the 80 cent US mark.
And Toronto detached houses hit ridiculous new price highs every day.
What is going on?
Our currency should be crashing. It is not.
Who is buying these two million dollar houses?
Nothing makes sense anymore.
I know that if CDN hits 80 cents US, I will be buying more US dollars.
And when I watch as a house that we thought was haunted, that has no heat, that has burst pipes, that cannot be lived in, goes in a bidding war to a young couple who bid 1.6 million and “win” this dump, and then go on to borrow on the “equity” so as to park a bin out front and begin gutting the interior, I have to ask, what in the world is going on here?
Are we all just too optimistic? Who takes on that much debt, in a 15% unemployment environment?
#124 Old Ron on 10.19.20 at 7:04 am
We have a bit of a perfect storm brewing. No demand for short term rentals(airbnb)for at least a year. Renters who make it all possible are getting hurt the most in the economic crash. Offshore money has dried up, in part do to CPC restrictions. Immigration which supplied up to 100,000 new renters a year has ground to a halt. All of those market drivers can return, just not yet.
///////////////////
Great points Ron!
#138 Sara on 10.19.20 at 10:50 am
#134 Penny Henny on 10.19.20 at 10:14 am
#84 Dolce Vita on 10.18.20 at 8:06 pm
This whole PARTIAL, TARGETED LOCKDOWN business is NOT WORKING.
And it will end up BANKRUPTING World economies with HALF MEASURES.
———————————
Either we accept MANY infections with LOW death rates AND GO ON LIVING (each person free to take their own precautions) or to STOP the DAMN VIRUS a FULL lockdown will be necessary. HALF MEASURES are clearly not working (Brits and French at it for weeks now).
xxx
Govs have to ask the PEOPLE what they can live with, ALL of them and NO LONGER decide for them.
?????????????????
So what you are saying is follow Sweden’s lead.
Finally you are starting to get it.
===================
You sure about that?
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/it-s-been-so-so-surreal-critics-sweden-s-lax-pandemic-policies-face-fierce-backlash
/////////////////
Like many other countries the situations in Long Term Care homes was handled poorly. For other examples of this look at New York State, Quebec and Ontario.
But as far as the rest of their approach is concerned I feel theirs was the best approach. Compare to Italy with skyrocketing rates and new lockdowns.
So to answer your question, Yes I’m sure.
#140 GBiddy on 10.19.20 at 11:13 am
#127 TurnerNation on 10.19.20 at 9:04 am
The Berlin wall was taken down on 9th, November 1989. That date is a 9/11. What happened after that 9/11? Iraq Invasion #1 the next year.
– What happened after the next 9/11 in 2001, another Iraq invasion.
Our globalists got their plan down.
TN, I’ve enjoyed your posts. Really have. Entertaining. Sadly, a few folks were starting to think you knew something.
But…
EITHER:
9/11 = Sept 11th
(and)
11/9 = November 9th
OR:
11/9 = 11th day of Sept
(and)
9/11 = 9th day of November
It can’t be both.
And in case numerologists are lurking here, 911 and 119 are not the same number.
Numerical symbolism, yes, the Globalists would use it to…what, leave clues?
“Hey, let’s do all this bad stuff on dates with similar numbers in them, that will really confuse people!” said no Globalist schemer, anywhere, ever.
TN, you’ve exposed yourself.
*****************************************
A good friend tragically lost his life (Merv P) in the Bali blasts 18 years ago. He was working in Djakarta and went to Bali for the weekend to participate in a rugby tournament. It literally took months to identify him using dental records.
The date was deliberately selected to make a statement. 10/12/2002
Hmmm, I see my post was deleted, guess only communist posts are allowed while the views of the only true Conservative politician are banned! :(
Don’t come here to peddle a political party. – Garth
Can $ drops
US $ drops
All other world currencies drop,…leaving all things “=”…
Cpi stays the same as do rates, but now 30yr mortgages and more $ assistance from gov. ..Maybe 40 year next year!
This all = much bigger mortgages with bigger house prices..
The options are limitless for central banks and politicos to push housing until there is 0 personal savings left.
That could be another 5-10 years.
It will continue Garth, ….debt means nothing, as its just renting money now….
#52
Barb that is some of the best advice I have ever read on this blog or any blog pertaining to government. “Never give up anything to the government.”
Also as Ronnie Reagan once said “Government is not the solution, they are the problem.“
On negative rates; Never say never. Direct quote from agent Tiff Macklem
Add it to the other pile of things that can never happen.
I am all in on the Trudeau put. Most assets are in the US exchange in USD denominated but I retain a chunk holding ZSP. Gonna watch the S&P rocket while the loonie burns in a BBB credit downgrade in the spring.
“Being reasonable and non-hormonal, you might conclude this is unsustainable. You’re right. Canada cannot run these kinds of deficits without consequences. ”
Why not Garth? Seriously… The gov (read taxpayer) will bail out the banks on any mortgage losses, so there is essentially no risk. Our currently continues to be devalued until we are paying 100,000 pesos for a loaf of bread of 50,000 canadian pesos for a big mac. It will be a liberal paradise.
Make fun of the crazy uncle all you like, I cannot wait for my US green card to come and be rid of this quazi communist nation.