The runts

Would you live in 455 square feet? Or pay six hundred thousand bucks to do so?

Nah, didn’t think so. That’s less space than a decent garage. Thirteen hundred dollars for every 12 inches of it. Plus monthly fees, insurance premiums, utilities and property taxes.

But thousands of these micro-condos have been built over the past few years, eagerly gobbled up by investors, especially in DT Toronto. And why not? They turned into money machines. Eighty per cent financing at cheap rates. Big rents charged – $2,200 a month or more. Airbnb revenues of $150 a night possible. And annual price jumps of 5% or better, while the tenant paid down the principal. An endless supply of new Canadians oand students flooding into the city as renters. Ka-ching.

But that was BC. Now, after the pandemic hit, everything’s changed. Those little pads are wealth traps.

Airbnb is moribund and illegal. The students went back to mom’s. Immigration’s down 70%. The employment pool for renters – in restaurants, bars, hotels, or downtown offices – dried up. Fear of infection made elevators, lobbies, corridors and other common spaces scary. Rents began to fade, and are now plunging. People don’t want to live in a tiny pied-a-terre space when everything’s closed – the pool, the sauna and gym plus the downtown hot spots, clubs and concert venues.

It’s a perfect storm. Thousands of investors. Vacancy rates rising. Lease rates falling Competition for tenants. Negative monthly cash flow. And now, a tsunami of listings. In urban Toronto there’s been a 165% increase in micros for sale. Prices have started to fall – about $10,000 a week. The sales-to-listing ratio sucks. It’s a total buyer’s market. Make an offer and odds are you’ll get a deal. Or wait two months and get a better one.

Ahem. Remember how this blog told you to stop your daughter from buying a weensy one-bedder because she “wanted to get on the property ladder.” Well, she’s on it now. Going down.

More news worth knowing: The World Bank’s chief economist says the pandemic will morph into an economic crisis, “with very serious financial consequences.”

Howcum?

“This is a war,” she says. “During wars governments finance their war expenditures however they can and right now there are dire needs. The scenario we are in is not a sustainable one.”

That means central bankers, like the ones running the Bank of Canada, can’t just continually print F-150s full of money to truck over to politicians, like Justin Trudeau, to throw randomly at society for virus repair. The accumulation of debt is monumental and must be temporary. Stimulus programs, quantitative easing and massive bond-buying programs have got to cease. When they do, bond yields will rise, mortgages won’t be so cheap and incomes will drop. Yup, could be a financial crisis for the unemployed and the vulnerable, even with a vaccine.

Maybe the World Bank is full of it. Perhaps this is just common sense. It was inconceivable a year ago Ottawa could run a $200 billion deficit in just 12 months. But now it’s $350 billion. The more money that’s printed and spent the greater the odds all dollars become worth less, bringing inflation and higher prices even as the economy’s in a funk.

So what?

So don’t expect this little bug-induced real estate boomlet to have legs. It’s impossible. The conditions creating it were both unique and temporary. The rush to Hicksville is a myopic as the abandoning of the downtown core. The belief government has your back is misplaced.

The pandemic will pass. Normal will creep back. And many will be shocked it’s not different this time.

$     $     $

Posters to this pathetic blog’s steerage section routinely diss the Toronto equity market. So let me share a note from my suspender-snapping, Porsche-driving, hot bottom portfolio manager buddy Ryan. Of course, we’ll start with a chart:

Cheap & unloved in Toronto

Source: Turner Investments

“Just updated my valuation charts for the S&P 500 and TSX,” he says, “and boy the US markets are expensive and Canadian markets are cheap!

Note how both the S&P 500 and TSX both traded around 1.5-2x in 2009/10, but with the S&P 500 outperforming since then, it now trades at 3.5x while the TSX still trades at 1.5x. One day the TSX will start to outperform the S&P 500 in large part due to this huge valuation gap but we’re not there yet. Technology sector would need to start underperforming, China would need to see higher GDP growth, and commodities would need to break out. Until then we’ll stick with our overweight of US markets, but one day the TSX will have its moment.

He gets it, of course. Once again, pandemics are temporary. There will be therapies. Vaccines. Global growth will spurt higher. Commodity demand will take off. Prices inflate. And you’ll be so happy that you own the TSX.

102 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 10.16.20 at 2:34 pm

What’s really going on:

Months ago when I saw that Loblaws/Shoppers drugmart stores will begin the offering of in-store health care, that the the long lineups outside (now in the cold
weather) likely is training for us, to one day line up for needles.
This was back in the Compliance Phase of the rollout (March-Sept). Currently we are int the Normalization Stage. ON’s premier yesterday reminded us to follow the CV “Protocols”. Sure, the ones which are destroying our way of life and the Old System. Of course. There can be no other way.

What are our local billionaires up to with health care? Are we looking at another thinly veiled Public Private Partnership (the Globalists’ plan) forming here? The
New System is a Technocracy, which is why everything was moved online in the New System rollout in March. 5G is no mystery it’s for our global tax farmers to better
keep tabs on us.

Did they ban us from USA and its better (albeit paid) health care system with the borders closed? Medical tourism is harder now. Makes ya go hmmm.
Remember these guys are playing the long game.
We are a captive audience.

….
“The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that Loblaw will begin referring customers to health care providers in a new mobile app. The Globe’s Susan
Krashinsky Robertson writes that Loblaw’s new PC Health app is a partnership with digital health start-up League, in which Loblaw’s controlling shareholders, the
Weston family, have invested. The move is part of a larger strategy by Loblaw, which owns Shoppers Drug Mart, to expand beyond the retail pharmacy business and to provide more health care-related services to customers. Last month, Loblaw invested $75-million for a minority interest in Maple Corp., a Toronto-based start-up that provides on-line doctor services. The partnership with League follows its $62-million financing round in 2018, which was led partly by the Weston family, through their private holding company Wittington Investments. Wittington also participated in a follow-on financing with League in September, 2019, for an undisclosed amount. League helped to build the new app, which includes the option to chat live with registered nurses, dietitians and “care navigators” who can refer users to doctors and other services such as mental-health care, vision care and massage.
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved”

…………….

Get to know the New System plan, yep CV did that:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-private_partnerships_in_Canada

#2 KNOW IT ALL on 10.16.20 at 2:39 pm

I’m looking fo 10x….

Where do I go from here?

#3 Sunnyways on 10.16.20 at 2:42 pm

Death rate is still flat.
Like flat as a pancake.
Flatter then 15 days to flatten the curve.

Politicians doubling down on lock downs.

Trudeau exclaiming he won’t open the border until there is no more Covid spreading in America (so border is closed forever?).

There will be no freedom until a vaccine, but because it’s a coronavirus there will never be a vaccine.

Restrictions will not be lifted until we discover a cure for death.

There was no going back on this ever. As a politician you can’t destroy millions of peoples lives, entire societies even, and then just go “oh sorry, I guess that was a bit of an overreaction”.
No, there will be no apologies or return to normal.
They will and are doubling down.

New Normal Incorporated is here to stay.

With regards to virus mutations.
If you believe in the theory of evolution you can probably understand why viruses mutate to be less deadly and more contagious.
This is not new or radical. There are thousands of scientists and doctors screaming about this all over the world. But it goes against New Normal Incorporated’s official narrative so they are simply ignored.

The virus wants what we all want. The virus wants what the birds and the bees and you and me and the trees and every single organism in the galaxy wants:

Procreation.

That’s it.

If you are dead or laying in bed dying you are not spreading the virus.
If you are sick but healthy enough to get up and do stuff then you are likely to “tough it out” and go to work. Or go to the grocery store and squeeze avacadoes etc.
Therefor deadly mutations die (with the host) while less deadly mutations live on and spread (with the host(s)).
This is and has been happening every single day inside our bodies with the thousands upon thousands of viruses we are constantly being exposed to.

They call it evolution.

#4 Armpit on 10.16.20 at 2:42 pm

I envy the dog in the photo

#5 Pete from St. Cesaire on 10.16.20 at 2:46 pm

“This is a war,” she says. “During wars governments finance their war expenditures however they can and right now there are dire needs.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Yep, and everything is on the table; including taking everybody’s savings and assets, RRSP’s, TFSA’s, precious metals, etc.

Nice to see in yesterday’s comment section that the majority of people understand that, while possibly unlikely, that leaked document contains many truths. It would certainly be in keeping with ‘Modern Monetary Theory’. No one can accuse this comment section of being full of mama’s-basement-dwelling tinfoil-hat losers when probably 80% of the people here are highly educated, self-made millionaires.

#6 TurnerNation on 10.16.20 at 2:50 pm

Ontariowe, “Open for business” was the prem’s slogan last week. Today ordered 905 area small businesses closed. For our health Comrade
Reversed his statement makes sense now.


Relevant, from May 6th:

“#201 TurnerNation on 05.07.20 at 8:55 am
The new life in Kanada 2020:

– Wake up in your 350 squarefoot “Smart Condo”
– Eat your delivered breakfast ration and watch the State AM news update.
– You work at home at one of the banks, one of the few employers remaining.
– Your job there involves garnishing the wages of debtors. Initially you were apprehensive, one garnashee lives in your building even. But as time went on you become quite good at your job; achieving the most files handled per day. Your boss rewards you greatly.
– The corner of your PC screen has the live Covid numbers score. Win-Lost-Tied. You are pleased your Prefecture is keeping its numbers down.
– Evening is your delivered dinner; watching the State news PM update.
– Entertainment tonight is a virtual tour of a really cool place overseas your friend told you. So impressed were you that you made this place your new social media backdrop. It garnered many likes.
– You tend to your virtual anime dog – with its cheeky demeanor ; it has become so needy lately; you consider selling or trading it on the online market place for a more relaxing virtual pet.
– Next week you will vote online, for the Red party of course. They are the best choice as their actions resulted in very few new Covid cases this week.”

#7 Interstellar Old Yeller on 10.16.20 at 2:58 pm

Just noticed the IG photo, happy belated birthday,
Bandit! (Does he have a favourite PAW Patrol pup? :) )

#8 TurnerNation on 10.16.20 at 2:59 pm

Read the weblog just now.
What the…is the World Bank reading my posts? ;-)

““This is a war,” she says. “During wars governments finance their war expenditures however they can and right now there are dire needs. The scenario we are in is not a sustainable one.””


– FROM APRIL – and what has changed since then?:

#1 TurnerNation on 04.23.20 at 3:14 pm
*This might be the most important post I’ve made yet

People don’t realize it yet but our elite rulers have kicked off WW3.
– This is a Global battle, in every country; it will last many years.
– Government spending is at war-time intensity without check.

In only a few weeks the propaganda war has people convinced we all are walking Bio-weapons.
That’s right. Watch people leap out of your way. You could go off any any time!
We are so dangerous – as active healthy people – that our rulers order us 6 feet apart.
Our trusted law enforcement guards enforce this prison-like spacing and line-up.
– At 6 feet away a private conversation in public is not possible; speak loudly, no whisper. Smart devices.
– There is no news or science being provided, only misdirection and speculation.

– It is 24/7 war TV coverage, the score updates in real time: Win-Lost-Tie
– How many people do you know mowed down already by the economic hit? The stats are huge.
– How many friends and family have you lost, they defected over to the enemy’s camp?

– All non-wartime activities are cancelled, remember the ‘Cancel Culture’ effect from last year? This is it.

– Food rationing is a staple of wartime. They are closing ONLY the Meat plants. And limiting TFW.

LOOK around your neighbourhood. (No wonder they don’t want that) and see the blackened, darkened closed stores and businesses. All, economically bombed to shreds overnight.
What will become of all that land and property? I know, might mention it another day
..

#9 Penny Henny on 10.16.20 at 3:05 pm

Re covid-
I was speaking to my niece about three weeks ago. She is a ER nurse working in a Mississauga hospital equipped to take covid patients.
Of course the topic of covid came up, here are two things that surprised me
1. over the summer and into most of September they had no covid patients.
2. as an ER nurse she is tested every two weeks. Even if she tests positive she is expected to report to work unless she is also showing symptoms.

Obviously the hospital doesn’t feel that the threat of passing along the virus is there if someone is not showing symptoms.

#10 Dolce Vita on 10.16.20 at 3:07 pm

This is when you wish the Market Timers could actually time the markets, better, COVID-19 (as in when will it end).

I agree with your prognostications, all common sense and historical.

A lot of weeping and gnashing of financial teeth when the pandemic ends and that DAMN VIRUS finally dies off, good ridden.

When, when, oh when?

————————–

Europe VIRUS PORN (it’s getting crazier by the day, hour, here):

1. OFF WITH THEIR HEADS.

The French police raid ministers’ homes in a pandemic inquiry into the government’s handling of the pandemic.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54535358

2. RIIII-COVID-LAAA Yodelayheehoo

Swiss canton yodel concert super spreader event, 1238 infected, face masks not required – no dung Sherlock tough to yodel otherwise (I liked it that the Dutch were first to pick up on this)

https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/537918564/coronacrisis-in-zwitsers-kanton-na-jodelconcert

3. A SOCIAL DISTANCE, FOLDABLE ROSA STICKA (Pink Stick in Svenska for the curious) by Stockholm Environmental Administration Inspectors – a little tongue in cheek by Aftonbladet where they even threw in some Paris Match oval face cut outs in their photos, admonishments end of article, Sverige style:

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Ky326G/bilderna-avslojar-trangseln-inspektorer-slar-till-med-rosa-sticka

————————–

CANADA, compared to Europe you’re DOING FINE and have not quite lost your minds yet, well, save for the RE forest primeval purchases and DT ghost towns.

#11 Robert B on 10.16.20 at 3:14 pm

You can ask yourself how can the Central bank of Canada loan $450+ billion to Canada and Ontario?
Easy change the economy to a “Green economy” and we will lend it to you.

No other country would survive the currency devaluation. But we are not seeing this in Canada.

#12 Basil Exposition on 10.16.20 at 3:17 pm

USA beginning the third wave of Covid infections. More spread out and with a lower death rate as per the stats shown. Once again, the Dems will likely win the Presidency and get the keys to a wrecked car in the process. Any kind of return to 2019 normal will still be a long way off. As our much admired host has often stated. Never bet against America.

https://youtu.be/cGM4vlPeA_4

#13 espressobob on 10.16.20 at 3:23 pm

A global all cap by market cap is simply the benchmark many an investor amateur or pro are somehow trying to outperform? Don’t get that.

Not that I have anything against side bets, but…..

As a retail investor it makes sense to count the eggs, not the chickens that might hatch.

#14 Get Your Starter Marriage Out of the Way on 10.16.20 at 3:23 pm

YA GOTTA LOVE IDIOTS ESPECIALLY THE ONES THAT BORROWED FROM THEIR RETIREMENTS TO LEND TO THEIR KIDS AND NOW ALL ARE LOSING THEIR SHIRTS.
HA HA HA!

#15 EnnDeePea on 10.16.20 at 3:38 pm

Thought this was a money blog????

Ya, TSX is cheap – really depends on Oil. (prefer TSX 60 BTW)

#16 Dolce Vita on 10.16.20 at 3:43 pm

I was thinking about:

when, oh when will it be over

and looked at today’s chart of Europe and US Daily New cases:

https://i.imgur.com/cYxq4Eq.png

rough counted months (USA) it took:

7 months

to see the end of their 2nd Wave, and if 30000 new cases/day is the end. Bad boy Europe skipped the US 2nd Wave but now making up for being underachievers, EXPONENTIALLY.

So practically speaking, the EARLIEST RELIEF from the DAMN VIRUS by:

MID-MAY 2021 ????

in 4 of the G7 World economies. Probably MUCH later.

Even with a vaccine, it will take a month of Sundays to vaccinate just over 1 BILLION people in Europe + USA.

——————-

Garth, I’m telling you WHEN is probably:

2022

and hopefully Canada does not bankrupt itself before then.

#17 Pete on 10.16.20 at 3:45 pm

Not sure if this made the Greaterfool news, from BNN. Canada is the fourth most indebted country in the world, with Libya #1, Aruba #2, and Maldives #3.

#18 EnnDeePea on 10.16.20 at 3:47 pm

Pfizer confirms possible November COVID vaccine application

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/pfizer-confirms-possible-november-covid-vaccine-application-1.1509144

#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.20 at 3:52 pm

@#201 Russ

I’m likin the “Wuhan Wait”

#20 Mattl on 10.16.20 at 3:56 pm

#9 Penny Henny on 10.16.20 at 3:05 pm
Re covid-
I was speaking to my niece about three weeks ago. She is a ER nurse working in a Mississauga hospital equipped to take covid patients.
Of course the topic of covid came up, here are two things that surprised me
1. over the summer and into most of September they had no covid patients.
2. as an ER nurse she is tested every two weeks. Even if she tests positive she is expected to report to work unless she is also showing symptoms.

Obviously the hospital doesn’t feel that the threat of passing along the virus is there if someone is not showing symptoms.

———————————————————

The hospitals out my way have been empty the past 8 months. I had a treatment in June and masks weren’t even required.

A Pandemic with empty hospitals and no one you know getting sick…..

#21 Red Hot Trudeau on 10.16.20 at 3:57 pm

Trudeau and The Red Hot Chilli Peppers have the same mantra “Give it away, give it away, give it away NOW!”

#22 Ustabe on 10.16.20 at 4:01 pm

@Turner Nation.

You are, so far, missing one major component.

M Mouth, do not touch.
E Eyes, do not touch
N Nose, do not touch.

However

W Wash your hands.
O Obey social distance.
M Mask up.
E Exercise.
N No crowding.

Hope this stunning revelation will add clarity to your findings.

#23 Stealth on 10.16.20 at 4:04 pm

Yes indeed, very happy with the tsx, and that is one lucky runt to :):):)

Thank you

#24 Leftover on 10.16.20 at 4:07 pm

Of course the World Bank’s chief economist is correct that what’s happening is temporary and unsustainable, despite what the fear mongering left (or is it right?) keep trying to tell us.

Somebody will blink and that somebody might be Germany. The trigger will be a spat with the European Central Bank when the German’s demand an end to QE. They like their currency to have value and they remember the Weimar Republic.

Germany is about the only member of the EU that can still go it alone. They thought about it over the past 10 years as Italy, Spain, Greece et al went from fiasco to fiasco.

Would it be pretty? Not on your life, but this is war after all, at least according to the World Bank.

#25 Tua the Redeemer on 10.16.20 at 4:31 pm

Over the last 50 years, the TSX has badly lagged SP500. Currently the spooz has a p/e of about 27 and the TSX is about 25. This tells us that the US companies are generating more than double the return on assets.

Now, the top 3 industries in the Sp500 are internet, software and computers which are all asset light businesses. Compare that to the TSX where the top 3 are banks, mining and transport and you can see why price to book doesn’t work as a comparison metric.

#26 Billy Buoy on 10.16.20 at 4:36 pm

Nice gams..mmmm

Currently The Usa spends $1 for every .10 cents in takes in.

Never feel bad about your debt..Go crazy…it’s gone too far. Enjoy the party while you can cause when it finally ends when the Central Bankers pull the plus it will be pitchfork and rope time.

Wahooooooo

#27 NSNG on 10.16.20 at 4:39 pm

#203 Diamond Dog on 10.16.20 at 2:51 pm

#191 Calgary Rip Off on 10.16.20 at 11:11 am

Btw, the results on these studies with Zinc and Vitamin D, if they were replicated in a drug trial, the company behind it would be the next Pfizer, Merck or Novartis, the numbers are that positive. Everyone is looking for that magical pill or shot presumably because $$$ is sexy.

===================================

It’s because, as one commentator put it, you can’t patent a vitamin.

#28 Howard on 10.16.20 at 4:39 pm

Negative rates are likely coming to Australia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lKNO_WQAEA

Deflation taking hold.

#29 Not Different This Time on 10.16.20 at 4:41 pm

“The pandemic will pass. Normal will creep back. And many will be shocked it’s not different this time.”

It is impossible that the 30% run up in every small town and suburb in every province will suddenly vaporize in a few months.

This pandemic will play out for another year at least as Canadians love the support they are getting – now CERB lite and a corporate wage subsidy. Polls show Canadians are happy to be locked down since they have more money rolling in then they ever have.

In the summer, it was wait till the mortgage deferral cliff at the end of September. Well, half way through October and there are bidding wars and unconditional offers on Hicksville houses – no mortgage deferral cliff.

Now its wait until January, and the true effects of the pandemic will be felt on housing. January will come and go and real estate will still be smoking hot because the feds have given financial support to every Canadian and their dog.

Prices are sticky on the way down in every real estate sector. This time will not be different as everyone likes to say. You need a significant correction to wipe out the 30% gains in the last few months, and if that happens, then its a crash – and even the most ardent bears only point to a correction and not a crash.

Prices will remain sticky for years because people are not going to abandon their recent Hicksville purchase, so there will be no material change to the markets even when the pandemic dissipates and people have to give up remote work.

Lets face it, renters in every part of the country – with the exception of bachelor condo renters in the GTA and Vancouver which is the only market segment experiencing softness – have been decimated by year over year real estate price appreciation for the past 20 years. And 2008 does not count, as the correction that took hold lasted half a year before the market resumed its upward trajectory. Renting, especially with a young family, has been a foolhardy exercise with extremely low vacancy rates and the inability to ever catch up to rising house appreciation.

This year will be no different – not now with the supposed mortgage deferral cliff materializing any day now; not January when people ‘hope’ things will change despite the confirmed trend and federal financial supports in place; and not in a year when everyone is still hunkered down in fear seeking out Hicksville for a quality of life.

Sorry, but real estate is the life blood of this country. When you have 25% of your GDP resting on the building and selling of homes, and it goes through the roof during a pandemic, it is an unstoppable investment.

#30 AM in MN on 10.16.20 at 4:46 pm

Many South American and African countries have shown that you don’t need to stop printing money. It can go on for 50 years.

Many of those currencies that got pegged after WWII, and then unpegged, are now at 5000:1 to the USD. They just take a couple zeros off and reprint new bills. Sometimes every 20 years or so.

If Canadians vote for it, they will get it.

#31 Jim Bobb on 10.16.20 at 4:49 pm

A warning to any foreign men who bring their families to Canada: I have 2 neighbours who are recent immigrants to Canada (one arriving here 5 years ago, the other 4 years ago). The first one started up his own auto repair shop, and his wife divorced him, threw him out of his own house, gets alimony from him (much more than he was actually paying to support his family in the first place), and now she is living with another younger ‘better looking’ man. I talk to his two sons and they both hate his mother. The other neighbour lives down the street a bit and it is pretty much the same story: the husband is ejected out of the house, and now the ex-wife’s life is much better, with a new car and a substantially increased standard of living due to almony that is flooding in to her, which is way more than she got when she was married.
The lady gets a lottery windfall in a divorce, so there is so much incentive to get divorced and no incentive to stay married. So the men who arrive here with families are seeing their familes totally destroyed.

#32 avocado on 10.16.20 at 4:51 pm

What’s to say all that tsx book value isn’t goodwill?

#33 Stone on 10.16.20 at 4:52 pm

#4 Armpit on 10.16.20 at 2:42 pm
I envy the dog in the photo

———

Careful! You do realize that’s Crowdie’s sister.

#34 FreeBird on 10.16.20 at 4:56 pm

ECB and World Bank fast track digital currency:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/pandemic-has-accelerated-adoption-of-digital-currency-ecb-president/amp

https://www.ledgerinsights.com/european-central-bank-ecb-digital-euro-consultation-cbdc-currency/

https://www.coindesk.com/imf-world-bank-g7-countries-to-create-central-bank-digital-currency-rules?amp=1
——————————

BIG dog carriers. That’s a workout.

https://www.thesun.ie/living/1133573/new-york-commuters-are-carrying-dogs-of-all-shapes-and-sizes-in-handbags-after-clampdown-means-pets-must-be-carried/

#35 Sunnyways on 10.16.20 at 4:58 pm

#17 Pete on 10.16.20 at 3:45 pm
Not sure if this made the Greaterfool news, from BNN. Canada is the fourth most indebted country in the world, with Libya #1, Aruba #2, and Maldives #3.

———————————

Be great if you could provide a link. I looked around BNN and google but couldn’t find anything specific to that.

I’m assuming this is debt per capita and not debt as % of GDP?

#36 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 10.16.20 at 5:06 pm

The two points in the graph where the TSX and S&P are at the same level are in 2008 when oil prices peaked and gold surged and again in 2011 when gold prices peaked and oil rebounded.

The next commodity cycle should start around the year 2030 and peak around 2040. That will be the time to overweight the TSX, or hold resource ETFs.

Until then, I expect gold to lose its luster and oil to stabilize. Investors will consider Canadian banks to be guilty by association, so they will underperform until 2030. Canada still has a resource based economy.

#37 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 10.16.20 at 5:18 pm

“Germany is about the only member of the EU that can still go it alone. They thought about it over the past 10 years as Italy, Spain, Greece et al went from fiasco to fiasco.”

So the EU dissolves, and France, Italy, and Spain each get a currency down 15% from current levels, while Germany’s rises 10-15%. That changes the terms of trade quite a bit for Europe’s four big manufacturing economies.

Many people underestimate the huge tailwind Germany’s exports get from sharing a currency with the rest of the EU… And the headwind for other EU members.

I hope this isn’t too technical or factual to pass Garth’s chicken quarantine…

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.20 at 5:26 pm

@#33 Stoned
“Careful! You do realize that’s Crowdie’s sister.”

++++

Just when I thought we were making some progress….

#39 RyYYZ on 10.16.20 at 5:30 pm

Just to continue on yesterday’s topic:

I wish I was as certain about what the right approach to handling COVID is as some of the posters here are.

I think, like many, I’m not sure what to think. Yes, the media are hyping it for views. Yes, some politicians are using it as an excuse to do things they have wanted to do (never let a crisis go to waste, right?). But to jump from that to some big conspiracy or lie, or that the dangers are all made up, seems a little extreme to me.

There’s room for reasonable discussion about the right approach. But I’m not an expert on infectious diseases, or the medical field in general, so I’m forced to defer to people who should, and who appear to, know what they’re talking about. And that’s not a random collection of posters on a financial blog, or tinfoil-hat websites, or questionable “news” sources.

#40 RyYYZ on 10.16.20 at 5:35 pm

#3 Sunnyways on 10.16.20 at 2:42 pm
Death rate is still flat.
Like flat as a pancake.
Flatter then 15 days to flatten the curve.
==============================
Is it? I’m looking at the daily new deaths chart for Canada, and I see a definite up-trend. 7-day moving average has gone up to 20 or so, from low single digits a few weeks ago. Not especially alarming numbers (so far), but not “flat”.

#41 Howard on 10.16.20 at 5:48 pm

Bachelor condo at Bay & Dundas on offer for $1399/month. A 10-year roll back in rent. And it’s still sitting.

https://housesigma.com/web/en/map?listing_days=0&sold_days=90&de_list_days=90&house_type=%5B%22all%22%5D&list_type=%5B2%5D&listing_price=%5B0,1000000%5D&rent_price=%5B1000,1500%5D&bedroom_range=%5B%220%22%5D&bathroom_min=0&garage_min=0&basement=%5B%5D&max_maintenance_fee=0&school_condition=%7B%22elementary%22%3A1,%22secondary%22%3A1,%22public%22%3A1,%22catholic%22%3A1,%22match_score%22%3A0%7D&show_school=0&show_comparision=1&square_footage=%5B0,4000%5D&front_feet=%5B0,100%5D&open_house_date=0&description=&zoom=16&center=%7B%22lat%22%3A43.65624487895722,%22lng%22%3A-79.38083410263063%7D

#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.16.20 at 6:19 pm

#37 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 10.16.20 at 5:18 pm
“Germany is about the only member of the EU that can still go it alone. They thought about it over the past 10 years as Italy, Spain, Greece et al went from fiasco to fiasco.”

So the EU dissolves, and France, Italy, and Spain each get a currency down 15% from current levels, while Germany’s rises 10-15%. That changes the terms of trade quite a bit for Europe’s four big manufacturing economies.

Many people underestimate the huge tailwind Germany’s exports get from sharing a currency with the rest of the EU… And the headwind for other EU members.

I hope this isn’t too technical or factual to pass Garth’s chicken quarantine…
——————
Even before the EU expanded from its original six, Germany always had a strong currency.
The “Made in Germany” brand insured that their exports sailed along nicely.
I remember in the 80s when we visited relatives in Communist Hungary, we lived like kings when converted our DMs to Forint on the black market.
The fact is that Germany is the glue that holds the EU together.
Question mark is what will happen when Merkel steps down in spring 2021.
The successor may not be so EU friendly.

#43 GrumpyPanda on 10.16.20 at 6:36 pm

#31. You reminded me of an old neighbour from Latin America . He got an M.A. In economics there. During the Civil War he was exempted from military service. He admitted much of his competition was killed off so he got a smoking hot wife. Then moved here and struggled. Was repairing appliances then, renting a basement apt. She left for a guy providing a better standard of living.

#44 Neo on 10.16.20 at 6:38 pm

Hey Garth,

Just because something is relatively cheap like the TSX doesn’t mean it’s a good buy. The US consumer deleveraged post 2008 and the CDN consumer did the exact opposite.

Now government spending is out of control and we have no industry other than flipping houses to one another with a spend happy leader bankrupting the country.

The flatline for a decade on that graph is appropriate.

#45 Pete from St. Cesaire on 10.16.20 at 6:38 pm

#30 AM in MN on 10.16.20 at 4:46 pm
Many South American and African countries have shown that you don’t need to stop printing money. It can go on for 50 years.
Many of those currencies that got pegged after WWII, and then unpegged, are now at 5000:1 to the USD. They just take a couple zeros off and reprint new bills. Sometimes every 20 years or so.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Yep, but they can’t buy any foreign goods with their currency. So it only works for domestic production.

#46 Nonplused on 10.16.20 at 6:39 pm

As a sort of follow on to yesterday’s topic of covid inspired conspiracy mongering, today seems to have marked the official start of the annual halloween panic. Church of Satan, pagans, witches, demons, all sorts of nasty creatures are sneaking out of the imagination to corrupt our children on this most evil night (that probably won’t happen anyway).

Now I will admit there are self professed witches, but I don’t believe for a minute that any of it works except as a form of hypnosis. Church of Satan? They’re atheistic hedonists. It’s all symbolic. Makes sense to me because I don’t think any right minded (if you can call it that) person who believes in Satan could avoid also believing in God in which case following Satan would seem like a very bad idea.

No form of magic, psychic powers, ghosts, contacting the dead, aliens, or any of that has ever been proven. Not one single case. Even Dog is pretty hard to find although there is a reasonable case to be made that existence requires a first cause. For most people (including myself) the idea that literally unimaginable amounts of matter and energy suddenly exploded into existence where before there was nothing all on its own is a hard thing to get one’s mind around. Why is there something instead of nothing?

Anyway let the kids collect their candy (if anyone will answer the door this year). The festival is more a way of exorcising the demons in our own minds than anything else.

#47 KDog on 10.16.20 at 6:51 pm

That is because …

Canada’s exchange is Full of Gold/Silver/Copper….commodities/hard assets.

Late 60’s/Early 70’s like period incoming. General equities will be flat over the decade… not going anywhere.

Good luck…you better get on te same team/page as Buffet, Druckenmiller, Jim Rogers, Singer, Zell, Tudor Jones, etc etc etc #GOLD and Silver Garthy boy.

#48 Kurt on 10.16.20 at 6:52 pm

“Thirteen hundred dollars for every 12 inches of it”

NO NO NO NO NO there are 144 square inches in a square foot that’s $9 a square inch OMG that’s fn insane!

#49 Dougie on 10.16.20 at 6:52 pm

Comments from the steerage (bilge?) section are even worse than usual today.

#50 Catalyst on 10.16.20 at 6:55 pm

Let’s get real here for a second, the TSX and S&P are in no way comparable due to industry weightings. Also, using price to book is a poor measure because tech companies which dominate the S&P have much higher price to books due to their higher margins. TSX is heavy banks and energy which has gotten slaughtered by book value, even in the US. No one should look at that chart and say its cheap.

#51 Karlhungus on 10.16.20 at 7:00 pm

Ill be happy to own the TSX when there is a conservative government in power

#52 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 10.16.20 at 7:00 pm

Don’t even think of coming up north this weekend. Only selfish inbred southern hillbillies would threaten to compromise our healthcare system that way.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#53 Nonplused on 10.16.20 at 7:05 pm

#5 Pete from St. Cesaire on 10.16.20 at 2:46 pm
“This is a war,” she says. “During wars governments finance their war expenditures however they can and right now there are dire needs.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Yep, and everything is on the table; including taking everybody’s savings and assets, RRSP’s, TFSA’s, precious metals, etc.

————————————

Not very likely as the bankers and billionaires who fund the politicians political campaigns aren’t going to like that idea very much. You won’t see something like that unless we’ve already degenerated into a military dictatorship. If that happens you’ll be more worried about staying out of the gulag than your portfolio.

Anyway seizing all assets is not going to get the government anywhere, because assets are not money. They can’t spend it until they sell it. But sell to whom? The value of all those shares and bonds will be pretty much zero once seized. They are better off to continue taxing and printing money. Through the tax system they are already a silent partner in your income from whatever source derived whether labor, dividend and interest income, or capital gains. Property taxes already make them part owner of your house and other real estate. It would be far easier to just raise taxes, although I think we are already about as close to “peak tax” as we can get. There isn’t anything that isn’t taxed already, except maybe the air.

(Although maybe carbon taxes represent an “air tax”, hadn’t thought of that until now. Are they going to put a tax on Soda Stream canisters? That is CO2. What about breathing? You are emitting CO2 as you read this. Methane too probably, especially fartz. And what about ants? Ants, collectively, emit a lot of CO2. Are they going to tax the ants?)

#54 Elon fanboy on 10.16.20 at 7:14 pm

Lol….Biden has brought Obama in to campaign for him in PA….where he was apparently up 7 pts….internal polls must be really bad…

Waiting for Springsteen and Bon Jovi to be dragged out. That worked really well for Hillary.

#55 Don Guillermo on 10.16.20 at 7:14 pm

#40 RyYYZ on 10.16.20 at 5:35 pm
#3 Sunnyways on 10.16.20 at 2:42 pm
Death rate is still flat.
Like flat as a pancake.
Flatter then 15 days to flatten the curve.
==============================
Is it? I’m looking at the daily new deaths chart for Canada, and I see a definite up-trend. 7-day moving average has gone up to 20 or so, from low single digits a few weeks ago. Not especially alarming numbers (so far), but not “flat”
**************************************
Interesting comparing Swedens covid charts

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

to Ontarios covid charts. Similar populations 10M vs 13M.

https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data

Both death rates have been very flat since late July. Ontario had a two day anomaly spike in early October.

#56 Frank Dimmitri on 10.16.20 at 7:15 pm

Garth, wait until the Bank of Canad gets it’s digital currency. You will then see the real problems.

#57 TurnerNation on 10.16.20 at 7:21 pm

The war on small business and restaurants is out in the open now. Not even hiding it.
Of all the times to support them when their inside business just now was shut down by our UN-backed rulers, the local rag funded by who knows who are driving the knives:
https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2020/10/toronto-amy-coney-barrett-senate/
“Toronto restaurant owner Ivana Raca has come under criticism after posting in support of controversial U.S. Supreme Court judge Amy Coney ”

– Why they hate restaurants: Imagine a medium sized Dollar store. Say 10,000 square feet.
You might have 2-3 people on cash and 2 stocking shelves at any given time. FIVE people total

Now divide that same space into four 2000 square foot restaurants/bars. Each with 2-4 staff. That’s 8-16 people. Double-triple the employment to tipple.
2x, 3x jobs multiplier.

…….

Weekend joke, remember this people ate it up. How do you like it now. (Flip their words 180 deg.)

“President George W. Bush
White House News Release, September 20, 2001:
Americans are asking, why do they hate us? They hate what we see right here in this chamber — a democratically elected government. Their leaders are self-appointed. They hate our freedoms — our freedom of religion, our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote and assemble and disagree with each other”

#58 Nonplused on 10.16.20 at 7:23 pm

PS #5 Pete

I should add that bank “bail ins” are not the same thing as an asset seizure. All that happens in a bank “bail in” is that you find out you were an unsecured creditor to a failed business.

#59 Bill Grable on 10.16.20 at 7:38 pm

Mr. Turner – here in the very densely populated West End of Vancouver – it is quickly becoming a forest of “For Rent” signs – in numbers I have never seen. (*30 years in this area).
The prices of rent are slow to drop.
They want $2800 for a 650 sq box – on the street where I live….heh, you can’t eat the view…..so, that sign has been up for going on 3 months.

Our building is a high rise populated with owners from all over the world…and many tenants have been unable to return to Canada, to their place here. It is DEAD.

That speaks volumes about who owns what, in this town.

One last anecdote: I was at the Tailor today and asked how business was. Big pause…..”I have been a Tailor for 45 years and I have never seen it like this”. ( GULP).

Sir, this is getting ugly – and I won’t even talk about what my American Family members are going through.

Thank you for all the work on this blog.

#60 S.Bby on 10.16.20 at 7:39 pm

Before the TSX goes anywhere, we need to get our own economic house in order. That means cut the deficits, have proper fiscal responsibility by all levels of government, and reduce our debt loads. Stop threatening investors with cap gains reductions and increasing dividend tax rates. Also stop the war on oil.

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.20 at 7:53 pm

@#42 Ponzie Penance

“I remember in the 80s when we visited relatives in Communist Hungary, we lived like kings when converted our DMs to Forint on the black market.”

+++
I’m shocked! SHOCKED!
Do you have any other criminal activities you wish to confess?

#62 GrumpyPanda on 10.16.20 at 8:09 pm

Re: This is a war. During the 2016 election campaign there were people that genuinely believed Donald Trump was going to start a nuclear war. He better hurry, time’s almost up.

#63 Nonplused on 10.16.20 at 8:18 pm

So, back to US politics, I think I have decided to place my bets on Trump winning. Why? Because the MSM and the left has started to act like a hornet’s nest that just got hit by a stick. They must know they are losing. Last night they asked Trump to condeem Qanon. Trump responded he didn’t know who that was. Why would he? It’s some small internet conspiracy on Reddit. He’s got to worry about what ISIS is doing and Iran and North Korea and other real things. And they are asking about Qanon? Nobody’s heard of them, although I bet they are going to get a lot more hits now. I mean they may as well have asked him to disavow PewDiePie. Why would the president of the United States know about Qanon? Is that the most important thing the CIA thinks he needs to be briefed on? Or is he supposed to know everything on the web? Is he commenting here? Does he even read Greater Fool? The Dems are acting as if they know they are losing.

#64 cristian on 10.16.20 at 8:30 pm

***********************
#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.16.20 at 6:19 pm
#37 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 10.16.20 at 5:18 pm
“Germany is about the only member of the EU that can still go it alone. They thought about it over the past 10 years as Italy, Spain, Greece et al went from fiasco to fiasco.”

So the EU dissolves, and France, Italy, and Spain each get a currency down 15% from current levels, while Germany’s rises 10-15%. That changes the terms of trade quite a bit for Europe’s four big manufacturing economies.

Many people underestimate the huge tailwind Germany’s exports get from sharing a currency with the rest of the EU… And the headwind for other EU members.

I hope this isn’t too technical or factual to pass Garth’s chicken quarantine…
——————
Even before the EU expanded from its original six, Germany always had a strong currency.
The “Made in Germany” brand insured that their exports sailed along nicely.
I remember in the 80s when we visited relatives in Communist Hungary, we lived like kings when converted our DMs to Forint on the black market.
The fact is that Germany is the glue that holds the EU together.
Question mark is what will happen when Merkel steps down in spring 2021.
The successor may not be so EU friendly.
****************************************
In the 80’s you lived like kings in Hungary because of USA and their Marshall plan .. anybody from Western Europe would live like a king in vacation in the Eastern block .. Germany was still nothing in the 80’s .. now they took over EU again and EU countries are blind again .. they BK’d all the small countries from the south ..easy .. same currency

#65 WEXIT on 10.16.20 at 8:30 pm

Thanks for the chart for TSX, S & P. I am waiting for the day, with glee.

#66 Gio B on 10.16.20 at 8:44 pm

hahaha … eventually your scenario for TSX will be correct. The question is when! How much longer do you think you’ll be alive ?

#67 cristian on 10.16.20 at 8:46 pm

***********************
#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.16.20 at 6:19 pm

****************************************
In the 80’s you lived like kings in Hungary because of USA and their Marshall plan .. anybody from Western Europe would live like a king in vacation in the Eastern block .. Germany was still nothing in the 80’s .. now they took over EU again and EU countries are blind again .. they BK’d all the small countries from the south ..easy .. same currency
*****************
What is wrong with this if is not to much to ask ?

#68 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.16.20 at 8:46 pm

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.20 at 7:53 pm
@#42 Ponzie Penance

“I remember in the 80s when we visited relatives in Communist Hungary, we lived like kings when converted our DMs to Forint on the black market.”

+++
I’m shocked! SHOCKED!
Do you have any other criminal activities you wish to confess?
—————-
We had our relatives who got it changed for us.
One was even a police officer. It was not like most Westerners think it was. Too many Holywood movies.
Hungary was pretty relaxed. They called it Gulash Communism. They even allowed some private businesses.
East Germany, Czechoslovakia and Bulgaria was pretty strict.

#69 Drill Baby Drill on 10.16.20 at 8:48 pm

There is a reason the TSX is lower than the DOW. Canada as it currently is being run is a very poor place to invest. The current government is trying it’s damndest to destroy this countries number 1 export money maker o & g thru bill 69 as well as the mining industries. Only when this is turned around will Canada be a good investment. And no giving Ford and Chrysler borrowed money to invest in EV manufacturing without a clear market is fool hardy.

#70 Terry on 10.16.20 at 9:04 pm

“The rush to Hicksville is as myopic as the abandoning of the downtown core.”

“Normal will creep back. And many will be shocked it’s not different this time.”

It is different this time…………it’s called a Depression and it will last for the next 7 to ten years. The virus is NOT the problem. The economic destruction from the worlds reaction to it is what will be our undoing. It’s happening already, slowly at first……then all of a sudden! Prepare accordingly.

#71 the Jaguar on 10.16.20 at 9:23 pm

What gem. “One last anecdote: I was at the Tailor today …..”. Bless Bill Grable for his authenticity and style. The guy visits ‘a tailor’. A classic gentleman. He’s like Sinatra.

Meanwhile those who wish to inherit the earth and all its spoils loll about the landscape in their Lululemon yoga pants and think they are the cats meow.
Mercy.

#72 Linda on 10.16.20 at 9:27 pm

Could you see yourself living in 455 square feet? Actually I can. I’d purchase a modular home from Wheelhaus – the Wedge model is a mere 400 square feet – buy a serviced lot, put the model on a proper foundation & would likely end up costing far less than $600K. For instance, Wheelhaus has a 1000 square foot model (2 bedrooms; 2 baths) for $267K. That is in US dollars, so would be about $352K CAD. Brampton has a lakefront lot going for $180K CAD ($179,900 & I rounded up). Yes, there would be transportation costs, utility hookup, the cost of a foundation to put the unit on & so forth but I’d estimate I’d spend no more than $600K CAD altogether. Obviously if I were buying a serviced lot where the cost of land is less than the pricey GTA region I’d not be spending anywhere near as much.

#73 Apocalypse2020 on 10.16.20 at 10:15 pm

#69 Terry

“It’s happening already, slowly at first……then all of a sudden! Prepare accordingly.”

Very true.

20 days to Global Catastrophe.

PREPARE

#74 Highland Valley Copper on 10.16.20 at 10:17 pm

Hi Garth, I nearly choked on a piece of gum after reading your first sentence. The wife and I just looked today at a 1 bed condo in bosa sky in new west today. 560 sq ft for 529k. Holy copper!! Wow I could never live with my wife in it. I will stay in Logan lake and Hang at the black bull pub more often or head to poops aka Kamloops for a half ass meal. Staying at the fairmont. Cheaper then buying in new west I have decided. My portfolio is better off with the 529k lots of hotel nites will be paid by the dividends. Thanks for all your wisdom all the boys on my crew at highland valley copper read your blog daily and we discuss it. Thanks Ernie, Barf, john, David, Uncle Tom, barts, oaky and harvy

#75 IHCTD9 on 10.16.20 at 10:46 pm

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.16.20 at 8:46 pm
#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.20 at 7:53 pm
@#42 Ponzie Penance

“I remember in the 80s when we visited relatives in Communist Hungary, we lived like kings when converted our DMs to Forint on the black market.”

+++
I’m shocked! SHOCKED!
Do you have any other criminal activities you wish to confess?
—————-
We had our relatives who got it changed for us.
One was even a police officer. It was not like most Westerners think it was. Too many Holywood movies.
Hungary was pretty relaxed. They called it Gulash Communism. They even allowed some private businesses.
East Germany, Czechoslovakia and Bulgaria was pretty strict.
— —

I worked with a guy from Hungary in an engineering office years ago. The guy would hear me make a call and ask “how are you?”. He could not understand how I could ask a guy I didn’t know how he was doing. Guy was pretty cool otherwise. On that team, there was a Russian Woman as well. Both these two would be laughing at the songs on the radio all day – I recall the eye rolling whenever a “crash test dummies” song came on – they just hated the guys voice. They both struggled huge with hardware abbreviations fw, lw, shcs, fhcs, hhcs, etc… Those were entertaining days, they must have been pretty new to Canada.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.20 at 10:47 pm

@#67 Ponzie Pious
“We had our relatives who got it changed for us.
One was even a police officer….”

+++++
Years ago
I was swilling at a bluegrass festival in the San Juan Islands. It was a weekend event.
The festival ended and a bunch of us pied into a bus to head back to Canada.
We pulled into the border crossing (Sumas) where there was a “Duty Free” shop for we booze/tobacco and whatever hungry canucks to make our last purchases before crossing back into the nanny state.
One gal purchased US vodka and poured it into empty Canadian vodka bottles, she then pour whiskey in canadian ginger ale bottles…. W…T..F…?
We crossed into Canada and the customs agents boarded , looked at a few things ( 1980’s was an easier decade) and walked off.

The gal was smugly ( smuggle-y?) clutching her ill gotten booze when I sat beside her on the bus and asked, “What do you do for a living?”
“I work for Canada Customs” …… and then she showed me her badge.

We both laughed.

#77 Alphonse Kehaulic on 10.16.20 at 10:55 pm

“This is a war,” she says. “During wars governments finance their war expenditures however they can and right now there are dire needs…”

I wonder if she’s saying something other than what we think she’s saying? Speaking in code so to speak.
That this is a war – on me and you and our kids – and the dire needs are the things to be done quickly by govts to get us into the next phase of this plan?
If masks work then why distancing, why lockdowns? If they don’t then why forced to wear em?

#78 South surrey socialist on 10.16.20 at 10:55 pm

DELETED

#79 BradVAN on 10.16.20 at 10:59 pm

I have not been here in a while, what a mistake. I have learned more reading comments (#3 Sunnyways last post should be mandatory reading in every school) in the past 10 minutes then in the past 6 months watching traditional media. It frankly gives me hope that we are all not yet doomed.

#80 Stan Brooks on 10.16.20 at 11:16 pm

Most of TSX is overblown financials. At peak credit and peak profits. Overpriced by a lot.

Some is services that are not going up any time soon with the public at peak debt. Where the demand will come from?

Manufacturing is long gone, outsourced.

Housing is at peak and it drives a lot of other sectors due to peak ‘wealth’ effect.

The rest are commodities hardly hit by the virus and the green agenda of the liberals who are apparently here to stay for a very long time.

Australians market is the same even with China’s huge consumption.

Some tech won’t make a difference, they are probably overpriced at this points and very few.

My assessment is of peak economy at this point due to the above factors with little positive outlook, specially with these rulers and their policies.

Capital outflows are a fact.

Markets are forward looking.

The only way for the market here to move in nominal terms is due to currency inflation. The best performing market in nominal terms in 2019 was Venezuela.

Our stock market in terms of total valuations far outstrips the real economy.

If you look for value, go Europe.

If you look for future growth, look SEA and EM.

If you look strategically, look US.

Argentina was relatively rich country a few decades ago, has commodities and their market is going nowhere.

Oil is not recovering any time soon even with the excessive money printing as demand is gone for a very long time. Plus we have the drive to electric vehicles.
If demand somehow recovers which will be in cheap extraction oil.

Cheers,

#81 Prairieboy43 on 10.16.20 at 11:17 pm

2020 US election defining moment. Momentum shift. Pelosi cracked on CNN, Amy Comey Barrett notepad. Trump Wins.
Stamp it!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/amy-coney-barrett-judge-s-blank-notepad-goes-viral-sen-whitehouse-s-presentation-elicits-memes/ar-BB19ZpRm

#82 Stan Brooks on 10.16.20 at 11:23 pm

PM mining could be the only shining star but is very small part of TSX. So I hold it and that’s it.

In the other sectors I see no value in short to mid term.

Cheers,

#83 Yitzhak Rabin on 10.17.20 at 12:06 am

Lost in this is the broader point and history of each round of so-called “stimulus” being necessarily larger than the previous one.

Each injection of counterfeit credit since 2008 has made governments, financial and real estate markets more dependent on interventions than they were before. Simultaneously, they have diminishing returns.

The classic drug addict setup.

The late stages of our phony fiat monetary system necessitate interest rates sinking into a black hole in an attempt to prop-up and continue to inflate asset prices.

Perhaps you forgot last summer when the US Federal Reserve claimed that shrinking their balance sheet by $50 billion/month was going to be like “watching paint dry”.

By September, overnight repo market rates spiked to 10% and we have another QE by autumn. All pre-pandemic.

The pandemic itself accelerated the problems we would have faced anyway over multiple years. It was one of the worst catalysts possible.

Removing or even slowing down the monetary heroin and fiscal cocaine stimulus simply ensures mass bankruptcy, re-adjustment (downard) or asset prices, and if permitted, large spikes in government bond and private sector borrwing interest rates.

Continuing the current policies on the other hand ensures confetti money and high or hyperinflation already seen in the weakest countries like Venezuela and Zimbabwe.

Prices will correct to fair market value (downward) as measured in gold.

Observe the TSX priced in gold since 2000:
https://pricedingold.com/toronto-stock-exchange/

#84 Kat on 10.17.20 at 12:23 am

Well Jimm Bob two sides to all stories. Maybe they were always ass husbands and they finally moved to a country that allowed the women to dump them finally. Plenty of immigrants from countries that still believe wives are owned. I know of a couple myself and the women are much better off doing it here where as in their home country they would have been shamed or worse for divorcing.

#85 jane24 on 10.17.20 at 12:39 am

Could you see yourself living in 455 square feet? Actually I can. I’d purchase a modular home from Wheelhaus – the Wedge model is a mere 400 square feet – buy a serviced lot, put the model on a proper foundation & would likely end up costing far less than $600K. For instance, Wheelhaus has a 1000 square foot model (2 bedrooms; 2 baths) for $267K. That is in US dollars, so would be about $352K CAD. Brampton has a lakefront lot going for $180K CAD ($179,900 & I rounded up). Yes, there would be transportation costs, utility hookup, the cost of a foundation to put the unit on & so forth but I’d estimate I’d spend no more than $600K CAD altogether. Obviously if I were buying a serviced lot where the cost of land is less than the pricey GTA region I’d not be spending anywhere near as much.

_____________________________________

I admire your ingenuity but a trailer home in Brampton for $600,000 signifies all that is wrong with Canada. That is crazy money for what is in effect glam camping. We live in an expensive part of Britain on the south coast and for the same money I am planning on selling a three bed bungalow on a double lot next year.

I plan on using that $600,000 Cdn to buy a retirement home in either Brittany, France or Puglia, Italy as we have EU passports as well as British and Canadian ones. For that same $600,000 I will get a great five bed with pool on 5000 to 10,000 m2 of land. I would not spend this kind of money on a trailer in Brampton. I know Brampton, my parents lived there.

Canada, my home and native land, has truly lost its way when it comes to RE. No wonder all my nieces and nephews are renting or still home with their parents. At this kind of money they can’t even buy a starter home and start to build their adult lives.

#86 mousey on 10.17.20 at 1:01 am

Re: The Pic
I had those shoes. Pretty much felt like a movie star wearing them. These days, going for the Spanish loafers. Never had the purse dog, not judging, but did have some diva cats and no way would they ever get trussed up in any harness thingy. Cats don’t roll that way.

#87 Good to Go on 10.17.20 at 1:06 am

Trudeau-borrow-spend-globalist pissaway-massive debt-o-nomics is the definition of hyper hybrid stag-hyper inflation on K Curve in the making. Trudeaus coddled voters will suck the test while the majority will lose everything. You voted for this? Good luck. Trudeaus Green Bond issue failed. No buyers. Who’s buying dollars to exchange for shuttered energy or non existent resource products? Ergo no dollar exchange. There’s no floor for the dollar with industry shuttered. Trudeau/BOC is faking stability. Down she goes while country falls apart.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4379397-hyperinflation-is?utm_source=news.google.com&utm_medium=referral

#88 G on 10.17.20 at 1:42 am

DELETED

#89 Woke Brigade on 10.17.20 at 2:18 am

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#90 Shooting Mad on 10.17.20 at 5:09 am

BTW….Re: TSX. There are 50 companies in the TSX that outperform. The rest aren’t worth owning. Buy the best, leave the rest. Buying an index is a mugs game.

#91 KLNR on 10.17.20 at 8:22 am

@#62 Nonplused on 10.16.20 at 8:18 pm
So, back to US politics, I think I have decided to place my bets on Trump winning. Why?

wishful thinking.

#92 Penny Henny on 10.17.20 at 9:32 am

#48 Kurt on 10.16.20 at 6:52 pm
“Thirteen hundred dollars for every 12 inches of it”

NO NO NO NO NO there are 144 square inches in a square foot that’s $9 a square inch OMG that’s fn insane!
///////////////

your thinking is so 2 dimensional.
try thinking in 3 dimensions. let’s say the ceilings are 9 feet high, that equates to 108 inches.
so $9/ sq inch is $9.00/ 108 cubic inch
the bargain price of only $0.083 per cubic inch :)

#93 jess on 10.17.20 at 10:09 am

Today’s indictment reflects the Department of Justice’s commitment to finding and prosecuting the costliest and most sophisticated tax crimes in the United States,” said Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General of the Tax Division Richard E. Zuckerman.

“Complexity will not hide crime from law enforcement,” said U.S. Attorney Anderson. “Sophistication is not a defense to federal criminal charges. We will not hesitate to prosecute the smartest guys in the room.”

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/ceo-multibillion-dollar-software-company-indicted-decades-long-tax-evasion-and-wire-fraud

Texas tech mogul Robert T. Brockman has been charged in a $2 billion tax evasion case, the largest ever tax charge in the United States, law enforcement officials said.
A federal grand jury returned an indictment alleging that Brockman, the CEO of software company Reynolds & Reynolds, engaged in tax evasion, wire fraud, money laundering and other crimes as part of a nearly 20-year scheme to conceal around $2 billion in income from the Internal Revenue Service and defraud investors in his software firm’s debt securities, federal authorities said in a release.

Department of Justice
Office of Public Affairs

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Thursday, October 15, 2020
CEO of Multibillion-dollar Software Company Indicted for Decades-long Tax Evasion and Wire Fraud Schemes
Allegedly Used Secret Swiss and Bermudian Bank Accounts in Scheme to Conceal Approximately Two Billion Dollars of Capital Gains Income
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/ceo-multibillion-dollar-software-company-indicted-decades-long-tax-evasion-and-wire-fraud

#94 Dharma Bum on 10.17.20 at 11:06 am

If a tree falls in the forest and there’s nobody there to hear it, does it make a sound?

If the mainstream media ceaselessly blathers on about the number of new cases of corona virus, but you decide to never listen to the idiotic drivel emanating from your radio, computer, or television, does any of it really even exist?

Go on with your lives.

Tune out the noise.

Fear is the game.

Don’t buy it.

#95 Dharma Bum on 10.17.20 at 11:10 am

#84 jane24

Brampton has a lakefront lot going for $180K CAD.
——————————————————————–

That’s because Brampton is the cesspool of the GTA.

#96 GrumpyAuldScott on 10.17.20 at 11:12 am

Math!?
“Thirteen hundred dollars for every 12 inches of it”
600,000/455=1300 (give or take) per square ft
But, 1 sq ft – 144 square inches.
So 12 square inches would be more like $110.
Still pricey though.

#97 Diamond Dog on 10.17.20 at 11:20 am

#81 Stan Brooks on 10.16.20 at 11:23 pm

You mean the entire mining sector, not just PM’s right and it’s such a big chunk of the TSX. I mean… just extrapolate:

https://mining.tsx.com/

#98 Linda on 10.17.20 at 11:30 am

#84 ‘Jane’ – I agree with your point that prices here in Canada are insane, at least in the GTA/YVR regions. The truly sad thing is that putative $600K for a SFH on lakefront living really is a bargain in the area described.

As for the Wheelhaus modular homes, they are not the same as trailer living, though they are transported to the site where they will be placed on flat bed trailers:) These are proper, winterized, fully finished units. Very well designed, so there is little to no wasted space.

Best of luck in your search for your retirement abode in sunny climes. Couple of things to think about. The pool sounds great, but what is the water security of the location you plan to live in? I’ve seen lots of properties for sale in Spain, whose water security is very poor. Many of the RE photos showed a pool, but that pool was empty because the cost to keep it filled was staggering. Also supremely wasteful in a region where many wells/aquifiers have gone dry or been depleted to crisis levels.

As for living in smaller quarters, depends on what you want as you age I guess. Myself, I’m thinking retirement should be more than cleaning a big house all day long. Have a few neighbours who are looking to downsize as the children left home & their age makes keeping the big house up a real challenge. Bigger is not always better!

#99 45north on 10.17.20 at 11:43 am

Nonplused

So, back to US politics, I think I have decided to place my bets on Trump winning. Why? Because the MSM and the left has started to act like a hornet’s nest that just got hit by a stick. They must know they are losing. Last night they asked Trump to condem Qanon. Trump responded he didn’t know who that was. Why would he? It’s some small internet conspiracy on Reddit. He’s got to worry about what ISIS is doing and Iran and North Korea and other real things. And they are asking about Qanon? Nobody’s heard of them, although I bet they are going to get a lot more hits now. I mean they may as well have asked him to disavow PewDiePie. Why would the president of the United States know about Qanon? Is that the most important thing the CIA thinks he needs to be briefed on? Or is he supposed to know everything on the web? Is he commenting here? Does he even read Greater Fool? The Dems are acting as if they know they are losing.

they sure are

will Biden get any electoral votes?

Joe Biden has made it très difficult for Democrats running for Congress
especially for Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff and Jerry Nadler

#100 rmccam on 10.17.20 at 2:18 pm

Re: #17 Pete on 10.16.20 at 3:45 pm

Not sure if this made the Greaterfool news, from BNN. Canada is the fourth most indebted country in the world, with Libya #1, Aruba #2, and Maldives #3.

————————————————————

Just so we’re not spreading misinformation here: We’re not forth most indebted country, we have the forth highest projected deficit. Still sad but it’s not the same thing.

“Canadian government budget shortfalls — including provinces — will end 2020 at near 20 per cent of GDP, from near balance before the crisis, according to the International Monetary Fund. That represents the fourth highest projected deficit in the world, after Libya, Aruba and the Maldives.”

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bank-of-canada-becoming-atm-for-trudeau-conservatives-caution-1.1508520

#101 zoey on 10.17.20 at 7:40 pm

yup Garth … bang on.

#102 Cici on 10.18.20 at 10:34 am

Anyone who believes the utter nonsense Sunnyways is spewing should go back to grade school.

This person quite obviously has no clue about this virus or any other virus in general, and is obviously not a medical or scientific expert. In fact, I can tell by reading his post that he hasn’t even taken and passed grade 12 biology.

Wishful thinking and facts are two very different realities. Readers beware of bad advice and the dissemination of 100% BS.

Really Sunny… you think deadly virus mutations simply die in their hosts and those who aren’t sick (yet) can keep working and everything will be just fine? Just keep believing that pandemics are the “creation” of governments who want go broke for the pleasure of getting to “control you” (as if you’re that special… they’d rather stay in power and not give a crap about having to save you from yourself).

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