Less than zero

The virus news sucks. Ontario started shutting down again late Friday. Real estate open houses are kaput. Quebec’s a mess. Cases continue to pile up in the States, Europe and Asia. Two pharmas just suspended vaccine trials. Trump’s claim for a cure by election day is just more of his hot air.

Your odds of contracting it are slim. Of dying, even less. But the chances of being more impacted by Covid than, say two months ago, are probably 90%. When the snow flies, even moreso. Governments and the politicians in them are not ready to trust you yet.

Consequences?

WFH will be with us until the spring. An airline may go bankrupt. The federal deficit will be insane. Chrystia’s gonna tax you more. And some people think banks will soon start paying you to borrow money.

That was a topic here a few days ago. Negative rates. Recently some media reports suggested the Bank of Canada was considering this. So we should noodle it for the next three minutes.

First, negative rates do not mean you get paid to take a mortgage and be deliriously happy. Instead it’s when the central bank drops its benchmark rate to less than zero and provides the commercial banks with oodles of money, hoping they will lend it out. And why would they do that? Because the news is bad. Worse than bad. A disaster.

Central banks adopt negative rates, which are drastic, when they fear the economy’s about to slide into a deflationary spiral. Deflation’s way worse than inflation. When it hits, spending stops as prices steadily fall, GDP shrinks, unemployment worsens, corporate profits fizzle, companies fail and real estate takes it on the chin. Just Google the 1930s and see what deflation did to the price of a house in Toronto, Montreal or Winnipeg.

So negative rates are a last-gasp monetary tool to thwart this. The whole idea is to make saving so unattractive that people (and companies) spend everything and borrow lots. Negative rates first appeared following the 2008 credit crisis and more recently in Europe, where economies have been struggling. If they ever come to Canada, the last thing you want is to have the bulk of your net worth in a house. Deflation makes debts harder to pay, not easier, as incomes and opportunities wither.

But what about Canada in 2020? Where’s this talk of negative rates coming from?

From this dumb comment by our new central banker Tiff Macklem: “We are not actively discussing negative interest rates at this point, but it’s in our toolkit and never say never.” His last four words were a mistake. He surely wishes he could take them back.

Negative rates would mean the Bank of Canada rate drops by another quarter or half-point. That would reduce the banks’ prime by a similar amount and drop five-year mortgages to about 1%. Bank profits would be clobbered. Markets would run red. Sparrows would fall. And it would only happen if the virus flared out of control, ICUs were overrun and a complete economic lockdown were to occur – guaranteeing recovery would take many years, not a few months.

Consequences would pile up. Savers would make absolutely nothing on hundreds of billions in high-interest accounts. GICs would renew at zero. Fools would borrow excessively and asset bubbles grow, before collapsing. Banks, squeezed as never before, might eventually halt lending since they’d be taking risk without gain. Cascading prices would be lethal to small business and big corps alike.

Trust me. You do not want negative rates. Nor deflation. And the good news it this: ain’t gonna happen. Not in this lifetime.

In fact, you should expect the opposite.

The year of Covid has brought unprecedented government and central bank spending. That $350 billion deficit T2 created is because of fiscal stimulus like never before – all those CERB cheques, payroll subsidies, rent assistance and enhanced social benefits have cascaded into the economy to replace money the virus stole. Meanwhile CB rate drops have helped unleash a weird real estate boom and explosion in mortgage debt. Our Bank of Canada is also gobbling up $5 billion a week in securities, pumping all of that cash back into the system. Never. Happened. Before.

Inflation has started to rip, and all this spending assures much more to come. Public debt levels have exploded higher. The Libs in Ottawa are actually doubling Canada’s total obligation. Eventually the combination of debt, extreme deficits, government borrowing, inflation and economic recovery will trigger the bond market. A sell-off there will jack rates in short order – with neither the BoC nor Mr. Socks able to do anything about it.

In short, no negative rates. In fact one major US bank is calling for a full 1% jump in 2022. Most other analysts see rates sliding higher in 2023 and beyond. Those who argue “the government won’t allow it because everyone is in debt” have some surprises coming.

Conclusion: be careful what you wish for. Lock in at today’s absurd levels. And hope the guy running our central bank shuts the hell up.

 

175 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 10.13.20 at 3:29 pm

So Ontariowe shuts down small business for 28 days in Toronto, Ottawa.

What was that about there being no news only Predictive Programming?
This new world order rollout has tight timelines doesn’t it.
……………
SCIENCE Oct 12, 2020, 6:59 AM

COVID-19 can survive on phone screens for 28 days in the dark, study suggests
The research from Australia’s national science agency suggests that COVID-19 can remain infectious for 28 days on a phone screen, if kept in the dark.

#2 Doug t on 10.13.20 at 3:33 pm

Hmmm – but never say never ?

#3 LJ on 10.13.20 at 3:34 pm

When the cheap credit party ends – watch out.

#4 n1tro on 10.13.20 at 3:35 pm

Just let me know when the debt jubilee happens. Thanks!

#5 Love_The_Cottage on 10.13.20 at 3:35 pm

Dropbox make WFH permanent:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/13/dropbox-latest-san-francisco-tech-company-making-remote-work-permanent.html

#6 Nat on 10.13.20 at 3:38 pm

Any word on if they are going to nix TFSA allowance for 2021?

Of course not. – Garth

#7 Faron on 10.13.20 at 3:41 pm

On the RE front. I put my foot down and nixed a buy. My partner was very crestfallen, I feel relieved but also disappointed and like a let down. We were facing an “all in” offer on a house with a small suite and resulting mortgage payment of about 40% of income. That would leave us with much less opportunity to rebuild asset diversity.

I’m an analyst and modeller by trade and so reading the unbiased analysis and models of professionals (who aren’t in the mortgage selling industry) all pointing at house price stagnation at best, there’s no reason to buy now when we can save for another year, put down much more, maybe find something more in line with our budget, have a clearer picture of a pandemic free future. Etc.

But she’s pissed.

Alas.

#8 Captain Uppa on 10.13.20 at 3:43 pm

Oh man, oh man. I am in full rutting mode for a possible 10 year mortgage re-finance in early 2021. I know most will think I’m crazy if I do it.

#9 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 10.13.20 at 3:52 pm

Just fill in the blanks:

“I don’t trust the currency, so I’m going to sell all my fixed income starting _____ and use the proceeds to buy _____.”

If you can’t fill in the blanks, interest rates aren’t going up.

#10 Anthony on 10.13.20 at 3:52 pm

I was expecting the defferal cliff to arrive this month with a rush of listings, since it is 6th month from when deferrals were allowed.

If borrowers cannot not pay and payments resume, presumably they would be listing it now rather than waiting for the bank to foreclose.

While there are ton of condo listings, listings of detached in the 416 have not increased…

Will prices of detached remain at their current levels, supported by cheap debt and additional government interventions?

#11 DAN on 10.13.20 at 3:52 pm

Well Garth I’m officially terrified. The CRA emailed my gf today and said she’d receive 41 weeks of 500 bucks, ridiculous! She’s already gotten 14K that were putting in my RRSP (the high earner).

We have taken her out of the workforce. She is healthy and 26, now she is chosing to get her realtor license instead of working, this government literally took her out of the workforce. How are we not screwed?

#12 Linda on 10.13.20 at 3:55 pm

Karma looks appropriately stern & ready to punish those who deserve it:)

2021 isn’t even here yet & sounds like it will be a repeat of the less than joyful 2020. Here is hoping that a safe, viable vaccine will be readily available to the masses soon.

Deflation. Seems like the world in general has been flirting with it since 2008. Crazy times we live in, where a predicted one percent increase in inflation is cause for rejoicing.

#13 James on 10.13.20 at 4:07 pm

#7 Faron

Celibacy ain’t so bad. Just ask Freedom First.

#14 YouKnowWho (Live from Suspension) on 10.13.20 at 4:07 pm

#1 TurnerNation

Come on TurnerNation, don’t fall for the fear blitz. It wasn’t in mucus and it was under ideal lab conditions. They probably put it in some virus friendly substance, and we already know it was ideal temperature and humidity.

So much detail missing from that study Australia put out to scare people.

You forgot this? When the Canadian scientist called Bullshirt in all those surface contamination studies and it was confirmed he was right to do so?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/canada/article-the-risk-of-catching-covid-19-from-contaminated-surfaces-objects-is/

Some studies used 1 million to 10 million infectious virus particles for each sample. That would be the equivalent of collecting droplets from 10,000 to 100,000 infected people and applying them to one small area, Dr. Goldman said.

“It’s absurd,” he said, noting he doesn’t dispute the quality of this research. Rather, “it just has nothing to do with the real world.”

You want fear? Be afraid of cloth/cotton masks! A peer reviewed randomized controlled trial with over 1600 health care workers concluded: Wearing cloth masks resulted in significantly higher rates of infection, the authors found. They also noted that in their test, the cloth masks were only 3 percent effective at blocking particles.

Mask study link:
https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/5/4/e006577.full.pdf

#15 jal on 10.13.20 at 4:08 pm

Just let me know when the debt jubilee happens. Thanks!
—–
Let me know too. It won’t be for me. I don’t have any debts

#16 James on 10.13.20 at 4:10 pm

#7 Faron

Celibacy ain’t so bad. Just ask Freedom First.

You can hang with him here in the comments section with all the…er..,’spare time’ you’ll have now that you’re not buying real estate with your wife.

Have a Zen experience :)

#17 HowDeepThe Pain? on 10.13.20 at 4:11 pm

I get a kick out of the Debt Jubileers…

Yeah that’s going to be effective…the next day after the debt has been wiped out all the knuckleheads will have maxed out their Lines, Helocs, Mortgages by noon.

#18 Overheardyou on 10.13.20 at 4:13 pm

#18 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 10.09.20 at 3:13 pm
#26 ImGonnaBeSick on 10.09.20 at 3:30 pm
#92 Sara on 10.09.20 at 9:01 pm
————–
Thank you for your replies!

#19 Pete from St. Cesaire on 10.13.20 at 4:13 pm

From this dumb comment by our new central banker Tiff Macklem: “We are not actively discussing negative interest rates at this point, but it’s in our toolkit and never say never.” His last four words were a mistake. He surely wishes he could take them back.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
That wasn’t a dumb comment nor a mistake. That’s the same damage-limiting ploy used when the government intends to drastically raise taxes, for example. They let the bad news ‘leak’ out unofficially beforehand so that when the announcement is finally made people have been expecting it and the outrage is lessened.
I take this comment to mean that negative interest rates are a certainty.

#20 $5 on 10.13.20 at 4:13 pm

With $5 you are not wealthy of more than 1/2 the Canadians but it is more wealth than ~3 billion peoples.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/10/07/covid-19-to-add-as-many-as-150-million-extreme-poor-by-2021

#21 Prairieboy43 on 10.13.20 at 4:18 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-bc-civil-servants-ordered-back-to-the-office/
————————————————————————————————
#5 Love_The_Cottage on 10.13.20 at 3:35 pm
Dropbox make WFH permanent:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/13/dropbox-latest-san-francisco-tech-company-making-remote-work-permanent.html
————————————————————————————————
So what it going to be heads/tails?

PB43

#22 Mr opportunity on 10.13.20 at 4:19 pm

Screw this! I’m moving to Kamloops!

#23 Oilberta on 10.13.20 at 4:24 pm

Land of the blue eyed sheiks… guess not!

“Four in ten Albertans say they are $200 or less away from being insolvent at month end. Almost half of Albertans – 46 per cent – say they are worried about their current level of debt. That number is down slightly from June, when it reached a three-year high of 48 per cent.”

#24 Basil Exposition on 10.13.20 at 4:25 pm

Second part of Vaccine update by US Geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan.

https://youtu.be/BEq-xI8Fonk

#25 Brian Ripley on 10.13.20 at 4:30 pm

My 4 interest rate charts are up now with Sept data:
http://www.chpc.biz/

1) Real long rates (30yrs) are at the top of the long term downtrend channel. The overlaid plot of the TSX Real Estate Index is about to test nearby support.

2) The real 10yr rate is slightly positive but since 2011 it has spent most of the time in a negative state and the last print is down M/M and only a few beeps away from the NIRP zone.

3) On the spread chart, the real bank rate is 0.4%

4) On the yield curve chart, the 10yr less 2yr rate after being inverted for 8 consecutive months ending FEB 2011 is positive at only 32 beeps (0.32%). In MAY through JUL 2007 the 10-2yr spread was only negative for 3 consecutive months and quickly rose but the TSX Real Estate Index was already heading down into the 2009 pit of gloom.

This time around, the TSX RE Index has plunged into 2007 support but on the September data, it is looking like support will not hold.

Living through the early 1980’s and having to renew a 1st mortgage at 18% and being in a position of having to sell my residence at that time because of the renewal rate, I’m conflicted now about the direction of mortgage rates.

This study:
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/suprasecular-decline
“Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G [real wealth returns (R) and broader real growth (G)], and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311–2018” by Paul Schmelzing, January 2020. Bank of England Staff working Paper No. 845…

…suggests that we have entered a low rate era.

Inflation as measured by total CPI remains in a long term downtrend as does the fossil fuel sector.

#26 Stonerberta on 10.13.20 at 4:32 pm

Screw this… let’s get stoned!!

“The AGLC has approved 527 stores, nearly half the total in Canada and there are no plans to limit their number.”

https://calgaryherald.com/cannabis/cannabis-business/province-lifts-limits-on-cannabis-store-ownership

#27 The Woosh on 10.13.20 at 4:35 pm

#11 DAN on 10.13.20 at 3:52 pm

She is healthy and 26, now she is chosing to get her realtor license instead of “working“

————————————————

This was rich!!! Become a realtor instead of working. That more or less sums it up. Excellent work ethic…that’ll get us out of the hole.

The equivalent to become a full stack developer for the low cost of $51!

#28 Petulant on 10.13.20 at 4:36 pm

So, essentially, we are going to continue to reward irresponsibility and Ottawa’s Palace of Versaille to continue spending well beyond its means….why?

Once again in this clown world – we continue to reward crony capitalism. The air we breathe is corrupt to the core.

Gawd….World War 3 cannot come soon enough

#29 TurnerNation on 10.13.20 at 4:37 pm

Somebody’s Optimistic. This hit the wire:
(Distancing, the greatest tool for economic and
small-space business destruction ever invented)
…….

Keg to increase monthly distribution to five cents/unit
The Keg Royalties Income Fund will increase the monthly distribution per unit of the fund, beginning with the October, 2020, distribution. Monthly distributions will be increased from their current level of 3.5 cents per unit to five cents per unit.
“At this point, the outlook remains uncertain and unpredictable for The Keg’s sales levels going forward. We have been relatively satisfied with our performance since restaurants have reopened starting in late May through to the beginning of July. Despite substantially limited capacity due to COVID-related mandates involving physical distancing and hours of operation, our guests have been very supportive of The Keg,” said David Aisenstat, CEO of The Keg.

#30 Dolce Vita on 10.13.20 at 4:38 pm

“Your odds of contracting it are slim. Of dying, even less.”
-My Liege

2017 DEATH by CAUSE data below, could not find anything more recent. DO glance math, ranking by yourselves.

————————

Damn Virus deaths in Canada to date = 9,645.

Number of deaths by cause, Canada, 2017:

https://i.imgur.com/Wiix1QI.png

—————–

Damn Virus deaths in the USA to date = 220,551.

Number of deaths by cause, USA, 2017:

https://i.imgur.com/SySksRk.png

—————–

Damn Virus deaths in the UK to date = 43,108.

Number of deaths by cause, UK, 2017:

https://i.imgur.com/6ywbAJ8.png

—————————————————

The sad thing is that the DAMN VIRUS isn’t done with us yet. Luckily it’s slow to mutate. Lord knows humanity has given it more than a shot at mutating into something WORSE (or more benign).

PS:

For the Road Traffic deaths conspiracy theorists (Canada, UK about 2,000’ish and the Americans about 44,000’ish, all per year):

https://i.imgur.com/k2GZY2K.png

—————–

PS, PS:

NO death data for Karma biting bystanders BUT I did fine SHARK ATTACKS per year (queue Jaws theme song):

https://i.imgur.com/ONhUEUy.png

It would appear that the sharks knew in advance what was coming to the USA AND BAILED from its waters (Trump elected and COVID).

#31 The Woosh on 10.13.20 at 4:43 pm

#18 Pete from St. Cesaire on 10.13.20 at 4:13 pm
From this dumb comment by our new central banker Tiff Macklem: “We are not actively discussing negative interest rates at this point, but it’s in our toolkit and never say never.” His last four words were a mistake. He surely wishes he could take them back.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
That wasn’t a dumb comment nor a mistake. That’s the same damage-limiting ploy used when the government intends to drastically raise taxes, for example. They let the bad news ‘leak’ out unofficially beforehand so that when the announcement is finally made people have been expecting it and the outrage is lessened.
I take this comment to mean that negative interest rates are a certainty.

——————————————

Agreed. Statements made by the CB are always prepared in advance and well calculated. This was no mistake.

#32 akashic record on 10.13.20 at 4:43 pm

Our lifetime is so relative that it is meaningless.

Probably best for the world that vaccines, developed in panic won’t be unleashed on mankind.

#33 Ken M. on 10.13.20 at 4:45 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 10.13.20 at 3:29 pm
So Ontariowe shuts down small business for 28 days in Toronto, Ottawa.

What was that about there being no news only Predictive Programming?
This new world order rollout has tight timelines doesn’t it.
……………
SCIENCE Oct 12, 2020, 6:59 AM

COVID-19 can survive on phone screens for 28 days in the dark, study suggests
The research from Australia’s national science agency suggests that COVID-19 can remain infectious for 28 days on a phone screen, if kept in the dark.
———————-

Well if you use your phone it will emit light.

#34 Editrix on 10.13.20 at 4:46 pm

So, the neighbours at the cottage had 9 cars this weekend. The Toronto neighbours drove both their kids home from their universities for Thanksgiving. Unless some serious shaming starts happening and the authorities crack down, amateur hockey, curling, probably skiing and other winter activities won’t be happening and will make for the bleakest winter of our lives.

#35 Tulips on 10.13.20 at 4:48 pm

Fools would borrow excessively and asset bubbles grow, before collapsing.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As these asset bubbles grow, the fools net worth will rocket higher and home ownership will be taken farther out of reach of the wise on the sidelines. And the collapse will only shave off a small fraction of the bubble growth, like it did after the rate induced bubble growth in 2010 or 2016. The fools will come out ahead once again. Who are the real fools?

#36 Dolce Vita on 10.13.20 at 4:52 pm

Everything you say about INFLATION will come I agree with. And on deflation as well (if it comes time to get the short legged table, white linen and Seppuku knife set out).

BUT the ONE CONSTANT so far with the DAMN VIRUS is this:

NOTHING ha been constant, let alone predictable.

Well, the Economist Academia I am sure ready to publish a bevy of:

“Unintended Consequences” proof paper.

I mean reading:

#11 DAN

comment is proof of CERB Unintended Consequences.

——————–

Regardless My Liege keep making sense of it all as you did today. Many appreciative as am I.

#37 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 10.13.20 at 4:55 pm

Editrix (33) just nailed it!

“So, the neighbours at the cottage had 9 cars this weekend. The Toronto neighbours drove both their kids home from their universities for Thanksgiving. Unless some serious shaming starts happening and the authorities crack down, amateur hockey, curling, probably skiing and other winter activities won’t be happening and will make for the bleakest winter of our lives.”

STAY AWAY YOU SELFISH INBRED SOUTHERN HILLBILLIES!

WE DON’T NEED YOU PUTTING OUR HEALTH AT RISK!

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#38 Jake on 10.13.20 at 4:56 pm

“Trump’s claim for a cure by election day is just more of his hot air.”

That hot air says Regeneron is the cure and now he’s ready to kiss everyone (ugh) at his latest, mostly un-masked rally.

20 days and counting… couldn’t come faster!

#39 Brett in Calgary on 10.13.20 at 4:56 pm

I could be dumb, but “Just Google the 1930s and see what deflation did to the price of a house in Toronto, Montreal or Winnipeg” is surprisingly hard to find. Most graphics I have found are 1960 onwards…

A link?

#40 Gio B on 10.13.20 at 4:59 pm

Most of your comments over the past have suggested to avoid real estate right now, but if inflation is really coming as you suggest, is this not a good time to lock low rates for 20 yrs and await inflation — real assets will rise – houses, gold, etc. what am I missing (?)

#41 Pandemic my derriere on 10.13.20 at 5:02 pm

DELETED

#42 Howard on 10.13.20 at 5:11 pm

“Deflation’s way worse than inflation.”

———————————

Not if you’re debt-free :)

Bring on the deflationary bust!

#43 dave on 10.13.20 at 5:13 pm

Inflation and economic recovery will trigger the bond market…WHEN??? A couple of months or years?

#44 dogwhistle on 10.13.20 at 5:15 pm

Well, Bank of England is thinking about it:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54506853

Tasty negative rates anybody? lol

#45 Doug t on 10.13.20 at 5:22 pm

I think the modern capitalism model that has been functioning for way too long is officially breaking down – the CB’s and TPTB have used up all the “tools” in their fool kit and we are witnessing its demise- what replaces it is going to be a nightmare for many

RATM

#46 don on 10.13.20 at 5:24 pm

Bring on deflation. Create some lessons that will last a couple of generations

#47 Graeme on 10.13.20 at 5:28 pm

“Not in this lifetime” … hmm, yours or mine? :P

If Trump can be immune and immortal, I am eternal. – Garth

#48 Tarot card on 10.13.20 at 5:28 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
The problem with the English language is the real meaning of a spoken word.
central banker Tiff Macklem: “We are not actively discussing negative interest rates at this point, but it’s in our toolkit and never say never.

So far we’ve had a few interpretations the first part seems easy we are not discussing negative rates.
Okay that is straight forward.
But then again of the bank is not discussing it why bring it up in conversation.
Now comes the word “but”
It’s in our tool kit.
Still all good and straight forward.
Now comes the last part which has everyone going in every direction.

And never say never.
Hmmmm translated…..
Never say never it’s in our tool kit.

So let’s put it in context
I have a plumbers wrench in my tool kit and I have never used it, but if needed I will use it. Why do I have a wrench I will never use. Well never say never.

So same thing for bank rates..
Why have negative rates in your tool box, if we will never use them,
Never say never.
Have a great day.

#49 Howard on 10.13.20 at 5:29 pm

Mortgage rates have probably bottomed but the BoC targeted rate for banks may well go negative.

I’m coming around to the deflationist view of espoused by Brent Johnson, Jeff Snider, Steven Van Metre, and other macro experts I follow. Most in the deflationist camp tend to agree that the deflationary spiral will eventually transition to high inflation (not HYPERinflation for dog’s sake, this isn’t Zimbabwe).

The stock market certainly has further to run before deflation takes hold though. I’ve read credible estimates of 4,500 on the S&P for a blow-off top target. Based on current price action it seems more than doable.

#50 Get Your Starter Marriage Out of the Way on 10.13.20 at 5:30 pm

So what if she wants to buy?
Give her her half and move on.
Don’t pass up a great future with no debts.

#51 Dolce Vita on 10.13.20 at 5:33 pm

“If Trump can be immune and immortal, I am eternal. – Garth”

You are My Liege.

(my MSUP for the week)

THAT was good.

#52 Steven Nicolle on 10.13.20 at 5:34 pm

From a couple of reliable sources I learned something about the virus today. The news you hear of it is old news today. This virus takes on different looks. This is making a vaccine when they come up with one hardly effective. Immunity is a very big long shot. We will be wearing mask even with a vaccine for at least 5 years but basically Covid is here to stay. People can test asymptomatic 9 times then get symptoms the 10th time and die. Closing restaurants or anything is futile. They will just reopen and spread the virus. J&J , Astra-Zeneca a month ago have had to stop phase 3. We will see what happens down the line. But this virus is not the flu, swine flu, or SARS. It is much bigger. Maybe they know but not telling us.

#53 Dolce Vita on 10.13.20 at 5:37 pm

#36 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!

Careful, you know the saying:

“The squeaky wheel gets greased first.”

#54 jess tree on 10.13.20 at 5:42 pm

Dying in a Leadership Vacuum
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2029812?query=recirc_mostViewed_railB_article

8hours to vote in georgia
cable cut in virginia led to failure of registation
florida registration fail
The judge says it best :
The judge noted in a blistering opinion that Florida, home to NASA space launch facilities, has chronic election issues.

==============
..”This new crisis of coverage has at least two causes. The first is our continued reliance on employer-sponsored insurance to cover approximately half of Americans against the cost of illness. The second is failure to vigorously implement current law. By design, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) helps persons who lose employer-sponsored insurance by making subsidies available for the purchase of individual insurance in the ACA marketplaces, by expanding Medicaid eligibility, and by requiring that private insurance cover preexisting conditions and a basic package of benefits. However, although states with their own marketplaces have alerted the recently unemployed to their potential eligibility for subsidized plans,7 the federal government has not engaged in a parallel effort. It has neither educated the newly unemployed about their immediate eligibility outside of open enrollment periods for subsidized insurance in the federally run ACA marketplaces nor opened special enrollment periods for those wishing to enroll even if they did not previously have coverage. Furthermore, 14 states have chosen not to expand Medicaid.

“Providers’ vulnerability to these demand fluctuations raises a fundamental question about the way we currently pay for health care in the United States. Providers operate as businesses that charge for services in a predominantly fee-for-service marketplace. When the market for well-paid services collapses, so do health care providers.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2021088?query=recirc_inIssue_bottom_article

“Florida has failed to figure out how to run an election properly — a task simpler than rocket science,” Judge Mark E. Walker wrote.

#55 Howard on 10.13.20 at 5:47 pm

Is anyone in Canada actually experience food inflation? I’m speaking of groceries, not restaurants.

Here in Europe where I live I’ve seen almost none, and I monitor my grocery bills pretty closely. The only thing that’s gone up appreciably in price is oranges. Used to be around 3.50€ for a sack of 8, now it’s usually over 5€. Other than that, prices haven’t budged aside from normal minimal price fluctuation in produce (which means down as often as up).

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.20 at 5:52 pm

@#43 dogwhistle
“Well, Bank of England is thinking about it:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54506853

Tasty negative rates anybody? lol

“””

Limeyland has more to worry about then deflation…

They have Brexit and Jane24 as a dual citizen…….

#57 cto on 10.13.20 at 5:53 pm

Right Garth,…but up is down and everything is backwards because of Central bank logic and measures.
Over the past 12 years or so central bankers have proven to be a bizarre bunch,…well will their fictitious data like the inflation rate…common!…
History has provided the evidence that he may drop rates whether the real economy needs it or not…Just because…
These guys never have shown the guts to raise rates when you would think clear evidence says they should and Tiff appears, so far, more of a candy man than the last two candy men. He’ll just re-jig the already re-jigged data…

#58 jess on 10.13.20 at 5:58 pm

Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.20 at 5:59 pm

Has the Public Sector employee “culling” begun?

https://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCAKBN26Y2PK

#60 S.Bby on 10.13.20 at 6:19 pm

“… it’s in our toolkit and never say never.”

A Freudian slip. Negative rates will happen and Tiff knows they will.

You’d best hope not. – Garth

#61 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 10.13.20 at 6:19 pm

“If Trump can be immune and immortal, I am eternal.” – Garth

Thanks for the information, Garth. Believe it or not, I was not previously aware that President Trump was immortal. I thought it was just his legacy that will be immortal. This bodes well for Trump 2020, Trump 2024, Trump 2028, Trump 2032, etc.

#62 mj on 10.13.20 at 6:22 pm

things are getting worse, not better. The BOC will have to do more. What the more is, nobody knows. They can go zero, or spend more to bring down mortgage rates. If it’s not this month, maybe December

#63 Northshore guy on 10.13.20 at 6:28 pm

That was indeed an irresponsible comment by Tiff.

I sure as hell hope he doesn’t really cut rates like his predecessor did in 2015/16 (and doubled prices in lower mainland)

Garth, do we have an opposition sort of thing like we have in politics for these central bankers?

#64 Bill Grable on 10.13.20 at 6:28 pm

Check out this insanity. (Teeny house) – this is just insane.

It was built on half the size of a standard city lot in Vancouver.

A standard property has a frontage of 33 feet and a depth of 122 feet.

The home at 3945 West 19th Avenue sits on a lot with a frontage of 16.5 feet.

The living area of the two-bedroom, two-bath house measures 993 square feet.

Sutton Group-West Coast Realty listed the home on September 24 for $1,495,000.

It sold after six days on September 30 over the asking price.

A buyer picked up the home for $1,585,000.

Real-estate information site fisherly.com tracked the sale.

The property includes a studio at the back of the lot, which is used as office and storage area.

https://www.straight.com/news/vancouver-real-estate-thin-house-built-on-half-size-of-standard-city-lot-sells-over-asking-for

#65 binky barnes on 10.13.20 at 6:28 pm

Inflation. Deflation. Stagnation. Contemplation. Does not matter my friends. We have our top person–Mr. Justin Trudeau–on it. And believe me when I tell you that there is absolutely nothing more important to this person than the economic prosperity of this country. Nothing.

BB

#66 KNOW IT ALL on 10.13.20 at 6:29 pm

“ain’t gonna happen. Not in this lifetime.”

You sure about that?

Silver (the 2nd most utilized commodity behind oil and Crypto (the adoption of centralized currency) will explode in value….

Mark my words!!

Fiat currency is becoming more worthless by the day with every stimulus and CERB cheque issued.

#67 meslippery on 10.13.20 at 6:33 pm

#54 Howard
Is anyone in Canada actually experience food inflation? I’m speaking of groceries, not restaurants.

Here in Europe where I live I’ve seen almost none, and I monitor my grocery bills pretty closely. The only thing that’s gone up appreciably in price is oranges. Used to be around 3.50€ for a sack of 8, now it’s usually over 5€. Other than that, prices haven’t budged aside from normal minimal price fluctuation in produce (which means down as often as up).
—————
Package size smaller, price for said package higher.
Seems like it may soon be time to mortage a paid off house at 1% locked in for 10 years and invest the money.

#68 Albertastrophe on 10.13.20 at 6:36 pm

Alberta is cutting 11,000 healthcare jobs.

In the middle of a pandemic.

When the bough breaks, the cradle will fall….

This is gonna get ugly here.

#69 TurnerNation on 10.13.20 at 6:53 pm

Appears clear what is the likely plan, why Toronto and Ottawa are targeted so.
I suspect the Skydome/Rogers Centre will remain closed until next summer, when it becomes a mass needle center.
Why else did they ban the Blue Jay’s return. Too much money at stake otherwise.

Ottawa: as you eat dinner in groups of 6-6-6 then stand 6-6-6 feet apart gaze on their logo. Also 6-6-6 on the left
A fitting seat of power.
https://ottawa.ca/en

#70 Nonplused on 10.13.20 at 6:55 pm

I agree, no deflation. Any determined central bank in charge of a currency that is not linked to a commodity or reserve currency can print their way to inflation if they really want to. The question is does that fix anything, or merely mask the problems?

The problem I have with all this money printing is that money is not wealth, it is a measure of wealth. Making the inch smaller does not make the ruler longer. Therefore printing money cannot take the place of the actual production of goods and services. So until we get back to doing that, I think all the stimulus is doing is papering things over temporarily. We will never get back the lost production so we will not be as “rich” in the future as we would have been had there not been shutdowns. But we will get inflation. Maybe a lot of it. That probably isn’t a good thing. All this talk of $15 minimum wages and folks will end up right back where they started from with $4 slurpees.

I think this thing is going to take a long time to sort out. Shutting down the economy is not something that happens every day, or even in several generations, so we really don’t know what is going to happen as a result.

Also I don’t know what all of this is going to do to psychology. Just as the great depression and WWII turned my grandfather’s generation into a bunch of savers and hoarders, this could change this generation. Maybe people won’t buy a new smartphone every 2 years. Maybe they won’t go on fly-away vacations. Maybe they’ll drive their cars a few years longer than it takes to pay for them. Maybe they won’t be going on cruises. Maybe they will have a couple of weeks worth of food in the pantry. Maybe they won’t dine out 3 times a week. Maybe the days of the $60,000 pickup truck are over. Who knows, probably not. That was probably the point of the stimulus; to prevent behavioral changes and a great 30’s style debt reckoning. Let’s hope it worked without setting something even worse in motion.

#71 Better late than never on 10.13.20 at 6:56 pm

“In fact one major US bank is calling for a full 1% jump in 2022”

Garth,
If someone was planning to take lump sum from DB in two years, should that person consider taking it sooner?

I would. – Garth

#72 jal on 10.13.20 at 6:58 pm

Alberta is cutting 11,000 healthcare jobs.

It looks like the bosses are moving the bottom to the fed UI system to save money.

#73 Stan Brooks on 10.13.20 at 7:06 pm

Yes, deflation is ‘very bad’ for savers and retirees whose savings are subject to bank fees, no returns whatsoever and with already miserable pensions indexed by 1 % yearly,
while inflation of food and stuff that matters increases and more and more people go hungry in this ‘G7, rich’ country of ours:


https://thestarphoenix.com/opinion/columnists/charlebois-canadas-food-insecurity-problem-is-on-the-rise

Statistics Canada has confirmed what most of us knew already: Canada is becoming a hungrier place.

According to a survey conducted by the federal agency in May, almost one in seven Canadians (14.6 per cent) indicated they lived in a household where there was food insecurity in the past month.

Official food inflation of 4 + % means real numbers north of 10 % for veggies and meat.

Much more of it to come.

As for the incompetents at BoC, they made it clear that they are looking to stimulate further inflation, so every time you go hungry (for the increasing percentile of the plebs), you know whom to thank for that.

Did I say stock on lubricant? You are about to experience one in a lifetime memorable sensation thanks to our skilled bankers and politicians.

And the beauty of it that is that any return on savings, if any, is subject to taxation as when you get 0.1 %, soon to be even less, nominal ‘gains’ with inflation target 3 % + (read 10 % + on necessities) so when you lose all that purchasing power the whole thing is somehow considered taxable ‘gain’.

How the increasingly broken, still working part of the populace considered ‘the middle class’ by some miraculous statistic tricks, can handle the coming tax increase is beyond me, but I personally know doctors who gave up and started shrinking their practice and working hours, moved away from the country, or gave up their profession for an administrative job in the healthcare that pays less but has higher benefits.

And most importantly: none of them can practically retire, all with solid number of years of practice.

Talking about doctors here. As for the rest, as I stated, the only hope is winning from the Lotto.

Cheers,

#74 Re-Cowtown on 10.13.20 at 7:11 pm

Just talked with a friend of mine about CERB-ians. He was getting his roof re-singled and spent three weeks with the shingles piled on the roof.

The roofing company couldn’t find anyone to do the work; their usual crews were all happy to stay home, smoke weed and watch cartoons. CERB was destroying his roofing business.

And other contractors can’t find people to rebuild after the massive storm that went through Calgary like a buzz saw this spring.

Just what the drama teacher ordered. Government largesse out-competing the private sector. Guess how this ends.

#75 Nonplused on 10.13.20 at 7:19 pm

#9 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 10.13.20 at 3:52 pm
Just fill in the blanks:

“I don’t trust the currency, so I’m going to sell all my fixed income starting _____ and use the proceeds to buy _____.”

If you can’t fill in the blanks, interest rates aren’t going up.

———————————–

“Now” and “booze”.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.20 at 7:21 pm

@#54 Howard
” The only thing that’s gone up appreciably in price is oranges. Used to be around 3.50€ for a sack of 8, now it’s usually over 5€. ”
+++
Funny you should mention oranges.
I purchased 4 large oranges last week at Safeway.
I was in a hurry and didnt check the price.
4 large oranges… $8.00.
Then I noticed they were from Australia?????
Apparently shipping from California is too expensive?
Anywho.
Two of the four were like me… hard and impressive looking on the outside…..rotten inside…
$8 bucks to learn to never ever buy Auzzie oranges again.

#77 Stan Brooks on 10.13.20 at 7:24 pm

#69 Nonplused on 10.13.20 at 6:55 pm

Absolutely agree.

My humble prediction for the escalating inflationary depression that we are evidently experiencing for some time is more of the same for a decade or two, with increasing even faster cost of living (as the high real number of 8-10 % inflation on essentials is not enough) with very low or even negative nominal growth, all this exacerbated due to the virus.

End ever escalating monetization as there is no other way to support consumption based economy that is overblown 2-3 times due to debt even at the current poor levels of growth and ‘standard of living’, peak credit and no savings.

Cheers,

#78 JJ on 10.13.20 at 7:25 pm

The Bank of Canada should just shred the bonds it buys. Cancel the debt – regulate the economy.

#79 Linda on 10.13.20 at 7:28 pm

#22 ‘Oil’ – many Albertan vehicles used to sport a bumper sticker that read ‘Lord, please send another boom. I promise not to pi** it all away this time’. Most did NOT keep that promise. So no big surprise that so many are concerned about $. The UCP got in by promising ‘jobs, jobs, jobs’. Instead it has been ‘cuts, cuts, cuts’ with a side of ‘debts and deficits’. Only to the lower income strata though. O&G firms were handed literal billions, even as they said they couldn’t afford to pay more for health care.

#80 Nonplused on 10.13.20 at 7:29 pm

#28 TurnerNation on 10.13.20 at 4:37 pm

“Somebody’s Optimistic. This hit the wire:
(Distancing, the greatest tool for economic and
small-space business destruction ever invented)”

————————

I love the Keg. But aren’t most of them franchises? Franchises aren’t really the same thing as big business, more of a hybrid. Part big business, part local proprietor. Subways are the same, as are many (but not all) McDonald’s. Even 7-11. Many of these big brand stores are being run by some person in the community who has a lot at stake.

#81 Nonplused on 10.13.20 at 7:34 pm

#49 Get Your Starter Marriage Out of the Way on 10.13.20 at 5:30 pm
So what if she wants to buy?
Give her her half and move on.
Don’t pass up a great future with no debts.

——————————-

It’s half now or half later plus spousal support.

#82 Nathaniel Smith on 10.13.20 at 7:36 pm

Good time to load up on rate reset preferreds!!

#83 willworkforpickles on 10.13.20 at 7:45 pm

Talk of negative interest rates…covid-19 surviving 28 days on plastic bills…precursor’s to a cashless society ahead.

#84 meslippery on 10.13.20 at 7:47 pm

#73 Re-Cowtown

Just what the drama teacher ordered. Government largesse out-competing the private sector. Guess how this ends.
—————–
Private sector being out-competed by $500.00 per week.
26k a year.

#85 Stan Brooks on 10.13.20 at 7:48 pm

#66 meslippery on 10.13.20 at 6:33 pm
#54 Howard
Is anyone in Canada actually experience food inflation? I’m speaking of groceries, not restaurants.

Europe has food inflation as well but it is much lower as it produces everything it needs and exports a lot,
plus the population contrary to what you are told has much less debt and much higher savings rate – 14 % vs 2 % for Canada for quite some time, despite the taxes, i.e. cost of living is much cheaper. Plus agriculture is heavily subsidized by a very solid economy.

Education is free.

Much better healthcare.

Actual ability to retire for solid percentile of the population.

Reality that probably only 3-5 % of Canadians can afford.

Watch for the over stretched health care system that we have as at some point it could start to give up even if we somehow quickly beat the virus.

#73 Re-Cowtown on 10.13.20 at 7:11 pm

Precisely, the only way to incentivize work is to pay more with demand driven primarily by money printing.
Venezuela was a magnet for immigrants 20 years ago until it started on exactly the same ideological path. We know where that ended, don’t we.

Shrinking packages has long been part of the policy, I will keep giving that example with the roast chicken dinner of a popular food franchise that doubled from 4.99 to 8.99 with the content of a plate shrinking by 30 % (not to mention the food quality) in less than 8 years.

Keep believing that ‘the inflation’ is 1-2 % folks, that is very important plan of the recovery plan as how otherwise would the incompetents throw their idiotic ideas of negative interest rates, if they honestly measure the inflation of necessities as it is?

Cheers,

#86 Dog Breath on 10.13.20 at 7:48 pm

#31 akashic record

Probably best for the world that vaccines, developed in panic won’t be unleashed on mankind.
—————————————————————
Oh, don’t worry the drug companies are completely exempt from any legal liability if the screw up with the vaccine. Ain’t crony capitalism grand. Makes you want to be first in line!

https://www.rt.com/news/496801-pharma-not-accountable-vaccine-effect/

#87 Stan Brooks on 10.13.20 at 7:50 pm

Sorry, typo:

I will keep giving that example with the roast chicken dinner of a popular food franchise that doubled from 4.49 to 8.99 with the content of a plate shrinking by 30 % (not to mention the food quality) in less than 8 years.

#88 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.13.20 at 7:57 pm

Censoring stats and facts again?

Just tired of you trivializing the deaths of others. You disgust me. – Garth

#89 Garth's Son Drake on 10.13.20 at 8:02 pm

Hey Garth, I head Poloz talking on BNN today.

He said quote “low rates are going to be around for a generation or more.”

He also said we learned from the 2008 crisis and acted quicker, more preemptive.

I have to agree.

Negative posted rates – maybe not – but technically we already have negative real rates if you do the math.

And we are going to be lower for a lot longer than people think. Re: more tools in the Central Bank toolkit on standby.

Yes rates will stay low. But a 2% mortgage going to 4% would be devastating for many. Do the math. – Garth

#90 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.13.20 at 8:05 pm

DELETED

#91 This is gonna be a problem on 10.13.20 at 8:06 pm

Phase III trials at JJ and others going sideways….this is gonna be a problem.

Case counts exploding higher…this is gonna be a problem.

Australian CDC just released this virus can live on surfaces for up to 28 days..my gawd!

Listen: you see where all this is heading. I be closing the spending taps for the winter and hiding out because the real outbreak is underway.

It might be a good idea to get the flu shot this year because getting the flu and covid is pretty much a death sentence and very possible this year. Best to hide out.

#92 Stan Brooks on 10.13.20 at 8:09 pm

It seems the ‘tools’ in the central bankers toolkit increasingly closely match the size of their balls, i.e. you need a microscope to see it and now even that is somehow turning negative?

For T2 we know he does not have any. And yet he has 80 % + approval rating… So had Chavez at the time.

Remind me again, why exactly do we need the central banker, to ‘watch’ at the markets and spew nonsense about inflation while doing practically nothing of use?

Cheers,

#93 Billy Buoy on 10.13.20 at 8:10 pm

F the GOV’T

I travelled to the USA 12 times over the past 6 months for work and only on the first two trips was even asked about Covid Symptoms and not directed to self isolate.

I return OCT 8 after a 3 hour visit and am asked the usual questions: Citizenship, purpose of being in USA, anything to declare and was released.

4 days later receive phone calls and an email saying to isolate.

Typical government, the right hand has no idea what the left hand does AND I’m in deep shit if not complying. But as I asked the screeners..”Who do I listen to? You Public Health or the Border which gives direction upon entry?

Totally clueless. Take what you can from these idiots….CERB, etc….What a joke and I’m afraid 7 months into this mess, it’s only gotten more confusing.

#94 Steven K on 10.13.20 at 8:13 pm

DELETED

#95 Comrade on 10.13.20 at 8:17 pm

At the end of the day, who knows. I wouldn’t dismiss negative rates. Trying to apply logic in today’s political climate is futile. By all accounts real estate should have already started showing signs of slowing down, even with pent up demand. But instead it had two record breaking months. Reno, furniture and appliance stores have their record sales, and can’t meet the demand. Not something you would expect to see with these unemployment levels from people who are $200 away from bankruptcy every month as per previous polls.
Time will tell, but we may not run out of fools any time soon.

#96 Faron on 10.13.20 at 8:28 pm

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.20 at 7:21 pm

Apparently shipping from California is too expensive?

Most supermarket oranges are ripe in local winter CEF. If the pandemic ever ends, take a road trip down I-5 into the central valley and find someone selling bags of tree ripe orange. Your mind will be blown if you haven’t tried one already.

Tropical oranges are terrible.

#97 El Presidente Superspreader Tour on 10.13.20 at 8:30 pm

I’m immune!!… I could kiss you all………spreading my love far and wide!

Donald J. [email protected]

1h
Getting ready to land in Johnstown, Pennsylvania. Big crowd. See you soon!!!

#98 yay on 10.13.20 at 8:34 pm

no debts, no assets. future, come get me bro!

#99 Drinking on 10.13.20 at 8:43 pm

Be smart about your finances; no time to buy things one does not need,stay safe dawgs and oh I guess felines! :)

#100 Phylis on 10.13.20 at 8:44 pm

Reset dates to look for in the resets, 2,3,4 or 5 and are they priced to reflect that already? I love a good sale.

#101 TurnerNation on 10.13.20 at 8:46 pm

Oops might have a dupe post.
I got the Smoking Man warning:

You are posting comments too quickly. Slow down.

« Back

#102 Chief Pilot Antifa Air great deals on soup see our website on 10.13.20 at 9:01 pm

Nuhuh, Donald says vaccine before Nov. 3 and Eric said his dad already invented it. Eric can’t keep a secret. Also Justin said I’m getting a unicorn with big powerfull wings and a comfortable saddle and a ’59 Les Paul, a real one not one of those reissues.

#103 the Jaguar on 10.13.20 at 9:10 pm

‘In short, no negative rates. In fact one major US bank is calling for a full 1% jump in 2022. Most other analysts see rates sliding higher in 2023 and beyond.’ –Garth

Reading that reminds me of that great line from the film ‘Heat’ where the character Neil McCauley ( played by Robert De Niro) says:
‘Don’t let yourself get attached to anything you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you feel the heat around the corner.’
It’s a little extreme, but I see it as representative thinking of how wise it is not to let yourself get caught up in a web of living beyond your means, beholden to other people’s unreasonable expectations, but most importantly maintaining flexibility, a very important quality in life. Flexibility is important if you need to move fast to avoid a train derailment. It’s hard for people to be flexible when their up to their eyeballs in debt and the interest rate creek is rising. I believe that the major US Bank Garth references is on the right track, and dog help the foolish that cast aside common sense for a piece of overpriced dirt in some hood in the GTA, GVA, or other area of current madness.

@#121 Don Guillermo on 10.13.20 at 12:00 pm. Yes PV is the big draw for many in the West, and increasingly Bucerías and Rincon de Guayabitos. Now that Thanksgiving is over I think airline bookings south will pick up provided the flights are non stop to the destination. No one will want to go through Pearson. The ‘red eye’ to catch the sun destination flight out of Pearson will be unappetizing for more than the usual reasons. I have my escape all planned out. A slight delay while I await word on whether I can bypass the bureaucracy to enter the ‘Forbidden City’. Calling in all my markers as I can only handle one week at the beach. Hope you keep us posted from Mexico, amigo.

#104 Al on 10.13.20 at 9:19 pm

Garth, you should consider stagflation as well as inflation and deflation. We’ve been seeing job losses combined with increasing prices recently, and it could get more extreme.

#105 Ballingsford on 10.13.20 at 9:26 pm

When do you think all of this will end. It’s not sustainable!

#106 Ballingsford on 10.13.20 at 9:34 pm

Editrix (33) just nailed it!

“So, the neighbours at the cottage had 9 cars this weekend. The Toronto neighbours drove both their kids home from their universities for Thanksgiving. Unless some serious shaming starts happening and the authorities crack down, amateur hockey, curling, probably skiing and other winter activities won’t be happening and will make for the bleakest winter of our lives.”

STAY AWAY YOU SELFISH INBRED SOUTHERN HILLBILLIES!

WE DON’T NEED YOU PUTTING OUR HEALTH AT RISK!

Just.

Stay.

Home.
*******

Get off the pogey and go jump in a lake.

#107 Stone on 10.13.20 at 9:42 pm

#79 Nonplused on 10.13.20 at 7:29 pm
#28 TurnerNation on 10.13.20 at 4:37 pm

“Somebody’s Optimistic. This hit the wire:
(Distancing, the greatest tool for economic and
small-space business destruction ever invented)”

————————

I love the Keg. But aren’t most of them franchises? Franchises aren’t really the same thing as big business, more of a hybrid. Part big business, part local proprietor. Subways are the same, as are many (but not all) McDonald’s. Even 7-11. Many of these big brand stores are being run by some person in the community who has a lot at stake.

———

Of course. Pass on the risks to the little guy and enjoy the profits at the top of the house. If one of the franchisees fails, take back the franchise and find a new fool. Very intelligent thinking.

#108 not so fast on 10.13.20 at 9:56 pm

When one is on EI you must keep track of what you do daily. One of the questions is are you willing and ready to work? EI isn’t a cake walk. At any given time they will haul you in to see your job search diary. They know what they’re doing. I believe Dan stated 41 weeks. Good Luck trying to collect for that term. Try 8 weeks and she’ll get a call. You must account for what you do DAILY.

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.20 at 10:46 pm

@#95 Faron
“Your mind will be blown if you haven’t tried one already.”

++++
Yeah, I was fooled by the size and color of those oranges…then the cost hit me between the eyes…thats when I looked at the label to see where they were from.
Australia? WTF?
My snow bird parents used to own and winter in Florida.
I visited several times and was always amazed at the orange juice during harvest time.
Gas stations, Malls, restaurants, ……everywhere had orange juice machines with sacks of oranges next to them.
Best, cheapest orange juice I’ve ever drank.
I was in Ft Myer’s in Jan 1986 on my parents back porch watching the space shuttle launch….. when the Challenger exploded…. My mom ( who had witnessed many shuttle launches said, ” I’ve never seen it do that before…” …. and then my dad came out and told us the news reported the shuttle had exploded……)
Other neighbors had seen so many shuttle launches they were still mowing their lawns as we stared at each other in shock………..
But that’s another anecdote…..

#110 T-Rev on 10.13.20 at 10:53 pm

Have five year, “big bank” money available for 1.8ish%, down from current 2.half-ish%. Enough of a diff to make it worth pulling out early, as after paying penalty I’d be even sometime around solstice next summer, then locked in at ultra lows until 2025 (also, 2025?!? I can’t believe my immediate timeline extends to the quarter point of the century…absurd…anyway…JFC). In the process, the wife and I looked at each other and said “wait…what are we doing? We’re closing in on 40….further ahead than anyone we personally know, and we hate our lives. Not even sure we know ourselves or each other anymore”

I’ve missed 80% of dinners and a lot of “presence” time with my kids, who are half grown. Even when I am there, I’m half occupied by the phone buzzing in my pocket. Never really a break. So, before we locked into another 5-er with IRD penalties, we decided we’re going to get out. Rental property hits the market later this week. The Big House, sometime between now and spring. We’re looking for more land and a small shack closer to family, back out in farming territory on the flat bits. Going to spend what time we have left with our kids and our parents, riding horses, feeding cows, baling hay, and working regular human jobs. Had my first job at 12, left home at 16 because I landed a sweet gig working nights in the city paying double minimum wage and thought I had it made…finished high school on my own, then Uni, then climbed the ladder relentlessly… Never said no… Spent 20+ years trying to get away from where I came from, trying in vain to prove I was somehow better or more than that. Should’ve stayed on the farm, should’ve listened to my old man. As this blog is fond of saying, the one thing money can’t buy is time. Well, time and health. Good thing I didn’t get rid of my boots and faded jeans…

Hamlet, Act I, Scene III…Polonius nails it. Sometimes it takes a couple decades before you realize what it means though.

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.13.20 at 11:22 pm

#106

Of course. Pass on the risks to the little guy and enjoy the profits at the top of the house. If one of the franchisees fails, take back the franchise and find a new fool. Very intelligent thinking.
——————
One of the parents on my son’s hockey team is a Boston Pizza franchisee.
Says he’s doing ok. But not a gold mine.
Jim Trevelling, the owner of Boston Pizza, is worth 700 million.
Not shabby for a former Mountie.

#112 morrey on 10.13.20 at 11:29 pm

“I don’t trust the currency, so I’m going to sell all my fixed income starting _____ and use the proceeds to buy _____.”

If you can’t fill in the blanks, interest rates aren’t going up.

faulty logic. emabrassing so.

#113 Spectacle on 10.13.20 at 11:33 pm

Re:
#95 Faron on 10.13.20 at 8:28 pm
#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.20 at 7:21 pm

Apparently shipping from California is too expensive?

Most supermarket oranges are ripe in local winter CEF. If the pandemic ever ends, take a road trip down I-5 into the central valley and find someone selling bags of tree ripe orange. Your mind will be blown if you haven’t tried one already.

Tropical oranges are terrible.
——————————
Reminds me of living in Hollywood Hills mansion for a year. I asked tennants down the hillside, what those yellow oranges i had tried in the backyard were.
Answer, eat all you want, by the way they are lemons! Yum, yes tree ripe lemons.

And yes, I am finding shopping price increase everywhere. I need some fresh new places, as it isn’t fun anymore trying to get wonderful produce.

#114 the Jaguar on 10.13.20 at 11:42 pm

Follow up to weekend Blog Post of Ryan Lewenza.
FOR RYAN’S EARS ONLY. No need for any other mutts to partake in this analysis as the race draws down to its close on November 3rd………….
Not trying to insight another slugfest, but here is an interesting point of view Mr. Lewenza:

https://ricochet.com/podcast/ricochet-podcast/house-of-deplorables-victor-davis-hanson-makes-his-final-case-for-trump/

#115 Mike from Buffalo on 10.13.20 at 11:49 pm

#9 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 10.13.20 at 3:52 pm
Just fill in the blanks:

“I don’t trust the currency, so I’m going to sell all my fixed income starting _____ and use the proceeds to buy _____.”

If you can’t fill in the blanks, interest rates aren’t going up.

———————————

“tomorrow” and “USD”

#116 Victor V on 10.13.20 at 11:57 pm

Poloz ‘not really’ worried about Canada’s housing markets

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/poloz-not-really-worried-about-canada-s-housing-markets-1.1507619

#117 islander on 10.14.20 at 12:21 am

#38 Brett in Calgary

https://www.erudit.org/fr/revues/uhr/1986-v15-n1-uhr0856/1018891ar.pdf

This article, written in 1986, is very enlightening regarding wages/ rents/ average mortgages etc. during 1935 in Canada.

This paper examines the development and implementation of the Dominion Housing Act (DHA) in June 1935.
Starting with the DHA, Canadian housing policy has a long history of focusing more on “market welfare” than on “social welfare” approaches to housing problems.

Regarding wages/ rents/ average mortgages see above link:

See page 9/22 (article p. 26) for annual salaries of workers (in 1935)

See page 19/22 (journal article p. 36) TABLE 3 CONSTRUCTION AND LENDING ACTIVITY UNDER THE 1935 DOMINION HOUSING ACT, 1935-1838

“On loans for single family houses of less than $3,000 the government assumed 80% of the risk, on loans between $3,000 and $3,500, 75% of the risk and on loans between $3,500 and $4,000, 70% of the risk. For loans in smaller communities the government agreed to reimburse lending companies for part of the administrative, travelling and inspection expenses.” 17/22 (journal article p. 34)

“The average loan per housing unit was $4,000, a relatively high cost house for the 1930s requiring a down payment of $800. This was well beyond the finances of many urban households. It meant that most of the recipients of DHA loans were white collar workers.” 18/22 ( journal article page 35)

#118 NSNG on 10.14.20 at 12:27 am

Deflation is horrible for debtors but for those of us who save our money and are debt free it is a pretty good thing.

Case in point, during the GFC in ’08 I walked into Walmart (when I was still walking into Walmart, I haven’t done that since they implemented their mandatory mask policy). $20 cheap jeans were going for $10. I couldn’t believe my eyes. I bought ten pair when I normally would have bought one. So, instead of making $12 profit on one pair, they made $2 profit on 10.

I walked up to the counter and the clerk looks at me and says, “Are these on special or something?” Uhhh, yeah.

At the same time, my then boss went out and renewed his entire fleet of semis because the dealership offered him a deal and they were getting desperate. That was something like ten trucks. So yes, for those of us who have been prudent, when deflation forces deals to surface, we will sponge them up.

Deflation doesn’t suck for everyone.

#119 Jackie Cohen on 10.14.20 at 12:51 am

Negative rates are great if you are a civil servant with golden guarantees of employment, perks, security and diamond studded pensions, even if you don’t have to show up, work from home with work to do, and can borrow based on the above to your hearts content because the risk in lending to people with guaranteed income is zero.

I Way over 20% are now government payroll, civil service, crown corps and “ special projects” , let’s not forget the permanent welfare of “ training projects”, ‘ relocation allowances and small business start up loans to have “ special people” occupy farm land in coveted ridings Liberals would love to control as soon as new numbers allow. In other words, MMT is working !!!

The Trudeau Liberals are creating money and they buy back the bonds they issue, give it to the banks who take the spearhead at no risk and voila, you buy an election with votes that are now addicted to cheap debt and can’t afford life otherwise. What do you call that ? Oh yeah, perverse debt slavery and the most obvious annihilation of democracy ever .

Under Trudeaus MMT Canada can never go broke as long as he can print without consequence. Inevitably the dollar will crash and the already zero foreign investment in Canada will crater. Taxes will was hit that inevitable wall at 100% and then Trudeau will demand more. Think it’s impossible? “ Just watch me”?

#120 Jack Cohen on 10.14.20 at 1:22 am

Sorry couldn’t resist a second post.

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-is-close-to-its-policy-limits-former-chief-says

Poloz….zzzzzzz. Giant guffawww insert here. Poloz has a big idea to “ grow the economy” ( yeah we know, it’s vomit) by building a daycare industry ! Mr. Poloz, recycling money isn’t industry. You have to create capital, not just tax more creatively.

Might I remind Mr Poloz of the trillion dollar revenue generating mining and energy industries Trudeau has shut down. These industries used to spin out hundreds of billions every year. Now instead Trudeau has to borrow the pretense of an economy. Quebec already has a daycare, where will the rest come from now that zero transfer payments come from the west? Me Poloz says “ we’re at the limit”. May I say Mr Poloz. “No shit”.

#121 Robert Ash on 10.14.20 at 1:52 am

Is currency Devaluation a form of deflation…

#122 Howard on 10.14.20 at 3:27 am

Atlantic bubble to include Cuban resort?

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/travel-agency-wants-to-expand-covid-19-atlantic-bubble-to-include-cuban-resort

#123 under the radar on 10.14.20 at 5:41 am

I was in a high end leather furniture store the other day and saw big purchases in a span of three hours. 15k for a couch or two was a routine sale. Owner told me he has 350 orders to fill before year end. His orders are no doubt fueled by red hot real estate which is tied to near zero rates. In my world prices are rising , not falling.

#124 Alphonse Kehaulic on 10.14.20 at 5:55 am

Tiffinator’s just reading from the script. He answers to a higher power than you and me. And like Turner Nation says, you have to invert everything these most favored ones say 180 degrees (18 = three 6s) to find something closer to the truth.

Remember: How many BIG businesses – not ma and pa shops – are failing?

As for 28 days, two 8s is Double Infinity. In other words lads and lasses: Lockdown will be much MUCH longer than the broadcast 28 days.

Enjoy!

#125 Armpit on 10.14.20 at 7:10 am

There will be inflation to encourage spending, and low interest rates to encourage borrowing. End of Story.

#126 Sky on 10.14.20 at 7:43 am

Negative rates— Trump touts neg rates. Pre-pandemic when USA economy is going great guns, Trump says USA is at a competitive disadvantage to countries using them. Calls negative rates a “gift.” Race to the bottom IMO.

Vaccine trial halts/pauses:

AstraZeneca—Adverse reaction = transverse myelitis. Truly a horrifying side effect (destruction of spinal cord nerves) with only a 30% chance of good to full recovery after 2 years.

J & J—Watched the interview with their CFO on Squawk yesterday. Joe Kernen tried fishing for info on the side effect which paused the trial but CFO refused to bite. Said he still didn’t know if the pause involved the placebo group or the ones who got the vaccine. This abysmal data management does NOT inspire confidence.

Eli Lilly—This trial pause was not vaccine related. It’s an antibody therapeutic in conjunction with Remdesivir. Along the same lines of the experimental treatments Trump himself took and which he claims saved him (Regeneron plus Remdesivir).

Vaccines take many years to develop and bring to market. Safety is PARAMOUNT. Throwing money at vaccine development doesn’t in any way mitigate the TIME factor necessary to ensure safety. Trump’s Operation Warp Speed is looking like just another race to the bottom.

#127 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.20 at 8:18 am

@#122 radar
“15k for a couch or two was a routine sale. Owner told me he has 350 orders to fill before year end.”

++++
One wonders how many of those “purchases” were financed with no payments until Jan 2022…..for houses mortgaged to the max……

#128 BillyBob on 10.14.20 at 8:35 am

Inflation: good for the portfolio. Check.

Deflation: good for acquiring hard assets. Check.

Costs: Absolute minimal. No debt. No rent. No mortgage.

So bring on the future, whatever it may hold. I intend to enjoy the wait for the new normal. Don’t really care how long it takes.

Just wish Amazon Deutschland would hurry up and deliver the smart radiator thermostats and boiler controls I ordered yesterday on Prime day. Was going to get them anyway and they were 45% off, love it! Need something to tinker with and I love working with German-made stuff.

Also the apartment has a flue to the fully maintained chimney, so looking to install a free-standing fireplace in the livingroom, can’t decide between gas or wood. Gas: line runs in fairly close proximity already so install shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive, convenient, instant. Wood: amazing ambience, simpler/cheaper and far more traditional but then have to store and replenish it…come on, I know there are some stove experts around! Lookin’ at you IHCTD9! Seems like something Jag would know about as well? Gotta get the place fixed up for when you visit! :-)

Only advice I’d received so far is to buy a local Czech-made brand rather than from elsewhere, as sometimes the cheaper Polish or Italian brands disappear and then are hard to get parts for.

Oh yeah, right, inflation, maybe deflation, maybe both, world ending, virus all that etc blah blah…

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.20 at 8:40 am

@#125 Sky
“Vaccines take many years to develop and bring to market. Safety is PARAMOUNT. Throwing money at vaccine development doesn’t in any way mitigate the TIME factor necessary to ensure safety. ”

++++

Total agreement.
The politicians are also ignoring the fact that between 20( Canada) and 40%( Britain) of the population will refuse the vaccine if offered…… so much for eradication.

The rush to produce a “miracle” vaccine (placebo?) has me wondering if I’ll bother.

#130 Love_The_Cottage on 10.14.20 at 8:44 am

#36 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!
___________
Thanks for the reminder, I need to book a place in Muskoka for a couple of weeks for the Christmas break.

Let’s see airbnb, vrbo, cottagesincanada… so many choices!

#131 TurnerNation on 10.14.20 at 8:59 am

*What’s really going on with the Alberta health care layoffs?
If you read it says Outsourcing.
This is the Globalist’s plan: Public-Private partnerships.
Their long game. Translation: handing out juicy contracts to friends of The Party.
This is the game is played lads. Learn it.

This is all SET UP – such that governments can play broke then offload services.

The Globalists are playing the long game. Meanwhile you are distracted by the numbers on the telescreen. The shutdowns of the Old System will continue until this is rolled our. March 2021 at minimum.
This why the are saying all in lock-step Build Back Better.
Greatest wealth transfer ever.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-private_partnerships_in_Canada

#132 TurnerNation on 10.14.20 at 9:20 am

My post last night didn’t go through but I bet Porter airlines will go BK (they own not lease their planes. Fixed costs). The bankers would not help them, their IPO got cancelled.
Guess which regional airline flies the same type of plane and could Swoop in and take their landing and airport slots and route coverage? Westjet’s Encore regional airline. Score.

‘Crown bankers using the Crown virus to take back Crown land’. Airport spots.

But Air Canada is going full steam ahead buying Air Transat. The bankers love them they’ve been re-financing like crazy.
It’s a small club and Porter ain’t in it.
The game lads. Learn how it’s played.

#133 Catalyst on 10.14.20 at 9:21 am

Apparently Poloz has joined the ranks of the deplorable commenters. He said yesterday that interest rates will stay low for a generation. The only way he can claim that is if he knows the governments and banks will do ‘whatever it takes’ to suppress the curve.

‘Low’ is relative to history. It does not mean current rates will hold. They won’t. – Garth

#134 TurnerNation on 10.14.20 at 9:22 am

The Game, part 3. The other day a blog dog mentioned this.
All those SMALL businesses being closed in the UK?
What of the Land they are on, what will become?
Ahem – this WW3 is over land. Small business ceding, big corps breeding.
……
“The Financial Post reports in its Saturday edition that fast-food chain Tim Hortons is planning a big expansion in the United Kingdom, creating about 2,000 jobs. A Daily Telegraph of London item inside the Post says that Tims will open drive-through outlets in every major city and town over the next two years. Tim Hortons first launched in the U.K. in 2017 with a branch in Glasgow, followed by Belfast, Manchester and the Midlands. It now has 23 sites including seven drive-throughs.
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

#135 Penny Henny on 10.14.20 at 9:25 am

#107 not so fast on 10.13.20 at 9:56 pm
When one is on EI you must keep track of what you do daily. One of the questions is are you willing and ready to work? EI isn’t a cake walk. At any given time they will haul you in to see your job search diary. They know what they’re doing. I believe Dan stated 41 weeks. Good Luck trying to collect for that term. Try 8 weeks and she’ll get a call. You must account for what you do DAILY.
/////////////

Yes you will have to answer on your report that you were looking and able to work for every day you are claiming EI. The rest of your statement is fantasy.

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.20 at 9:30 am

@#127 Billybob

If the gas line is close and convenient. Go with gas.
I’ve installed my own gas fireplace and furnace. Self contained units. Almost as easy as installing a fridge..
You don’t have to worry about, finding wood, storing wood, getting wood to the fireplace, starting the fire, opening the flue, smokey wet wood, and cleaning the mess later.

If you were living in the country…. another story altogether but burning wood…in the city….. pain in the arse.
Gas.
Click click click…. Woosh.
Sit back and enjoy.

That being said.
With all the EU/Russian sanctions about to ratchet up…. will there BE any gas?

#137 Penny Henny on 10.14.20 at 9:41 am

#127 BillyBob on 10.14.20 at 8:35 am

Also the apartment has a flue to the fully maintained chimney, so looking to install a free-standing fireplace in the livingroom, can’t decide between gas or wood.

/////////////

In a house it would depend on your preference, but in apartment there is no question. Gas.

#138 YVR Expat on 10.14.20 at 9:41 am

#36 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 10.13.20 at 4:55 pm
Editrix (33) just nailed it!

“So, the neighbours at the cottage had 9 cars this weekend. The Toronto neighbours drove both their kids home from their universities for Thanksgiving. Unless some serious shaming starts happening and the authorities crack down, amateur hockey, curling, probably skiing and other winter activities won’t be happening and will make for the bleakest winter of our lives.”

STAY AWAY YOU SELFISH INBRED SOUTHERN HILLBILLIES!

WE DON’T NEED YOU PUTTING OUR HEALTH AT RISK!

Just.

Stay.

Home.

*********************

I can’t wait to head up to Blue Mountain this winter. The city will be depressing, nothing to do, can’t even go to the gym. At least we have cottage country. Apres beers anyone?

#139 Sky on 10.14.20 at 9:43 am

@ crowdedelevatorfartz #128

“The politicians are also ignoring the fact that between 20( Canada) and 40%( Britain) of the population will refuse the vaccine if offered…… so much for eradication.”

**********************************

Higher than 20% for Canada now, fartz.

” …new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds fewer than half of Canadians (39%) say they’d seek to be vaccinated as soon as one was widely available. Just as many say they’d be willing to take a vaccine, but would want to wait first (38%), …”

http://angusreid.org/covid19-vaccine-october/

Also, the moderator in last week’s USA VP debate stated that ½ of Americans do not trust the Trump vaccine rollout.

#140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.20 at 9:43 am

@#130 Turner Nation
“The Globalists are playing the long game. Meanwhile you are distracted by the numbers on the telescreen. The shutdowns of the Old System will continue until this is rolled our. March 2021 at minimum.
This why the are saying all in lock-step Build Back Better.
Greatest wealth transfer ever.”
+++

While I dont disagree.
One cant help but wonder if Govt actuaries have shoved the endlessly rising govt employee pension DEBT numbers in front of an endless parade of politicians demanding something be done before the entire govt employee pension DEBT house of cards comes crashing down around them.

#141 TurnerNation on 10.14.20 at 9:49 am

#121 Howard that sounds like a Public-Private partnership no? Government bubble/Berlin Wall (so scientific!) and a Private resort.
Cuba…where we all are anyway headed.(UBI. They pretend to pay us we pretend to work.)
Our rights will only come back a bit and only once more the New System is rolled. Early 2021 a bit then into 2022.
What of the new E-Currency, developed by Bank of Canada. 2023 is my guess. This is all about public health Comrade!!

#142 YVR Expat on 10.14.20 at 9:54 am

#78 Linda on 10.13.20 at 7:28 pm
#22 ‘Oil’ O&G firms were handed literal billions, even as they said they couldn’t afford to pay more for health care.

*********************

O&G firms weren’t ‘handed literal billions’, they took out out loans like every other business, with the expectation that they would pay it back (and believe me, they will). Unlike the millions of Canadians taking $2k/month from daddy government…. who is paying for all that again?

#143 Captain Uppa on 10.14.20 at 9:58 am

“A recent Leger Marketing survey conducted for ReMax found that one-third of Canadians polled in July said they no longer want to live in large urban areas and instead would opt for rural and suburban communities. The survey also says 44 per cent of Canadians want a home with more space for personal amenities, such as a pool, balcony or a large yard. Another survey of Ontario residents conducted by Nanos for the Ontario Real Estate Association found about three out of five who were actively in the market for real estate agreed or somewhat agreed that living in a rural area or suburbs is more appealing to them now than it was prior to the pandemic.”

I think the underlying factors were always there pre-pandemic. Covid just gave people the final push. This will only accelerate, even after life returns to “normal”.

Source: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/article-the-lure-of-small-town-life-becoming-more-appealing-amid-the-pandemic/

#144 BillyBob on 10.14.20 at 10:11 am

#136 Penny Henny on 10.14.20 at 9:41 am
#127 BillyBob on 10.14.20 at 8:35 am

In a house it would depend on your preference, but in apartment there is no question. Gas.

================================

Agree with you, in N. American apartment. Quite a bit different in Europe, where a large value is placed on tradition and yes, often over convenience. Imagine that, right?

And initially agreed with CEF as well: no-brainer on gas. But on seeing some of the tech on both the latest wood-burning (ie 3-stage burning with electric circulation that can raise the temperature and combustion efficiency to pretty astounding levels) and possible fuel (compressed recycled waste wood that burns up to 30 hrs), and then combining that with the local resale value being better the more “traditional” things are kept, I’ve actually come a fair ways around from gas to wood. Throw in the irreplaceable authenticity of burning wood, visually, aurally, and olfactorily, and the decision gets even harder. It’s not like it’s going to be the principal source of heat, or used every day. More like an extremely cosy supplement in the fall/winter months. Me sitting around reading all day while the partner works hahah!

Should point out that we do have ample storage space for wood: the storage lockers in the basement are actually converted from the original coal bunkers so they are plenty big. And unlimited free wood supply from partner’s grandmother’s rural property (which is a sliver of what was taken by the communists and then “given back”, another story). Falling, splitting, transport still a pain, of course.

Will ponder further, thanks for the opinions.

#145 willworkforpickles on 10.14.20 at 10:12 am

Much talk about Trump and what he calls cured by the combination of treatments he’s been given.
It could be a viable combo of experimental treatments in that his infection has been driven into remission.
As for a cure…little chance of that.
The combo of treatments he was given likely sent the virus into dormancy deep within the safety zones of the nervous system where natural immune function doesn’t reach as with similar viruses than having destroyed it.
He may very well need the same treatment again with any flare up later.
The risk factor there could be in a viral mutation before re-surfacing rendering the concoction just used on him ineffective.
Will the virus go away?
Will the virus not go away?
Will the virus eventually wane but flare again and again?
I believe it will be #3

#146 BillyBob on 10.14.20 at 10:19 am

Meanwhile, in the “Atlantic Bubble”…enjoy your low Covid rates, but realize that isolating yourself may be more than temporary…

In aviation we constantly measure safety metrics by the “unintended consequences” of new procedures, technology, or regulations. Everything has a price.

https://financialpost.com/transportation/airlines/obliterated-by-atlantic-bubble-westjets-suspends-service-to-four-eastern-canada-cities

Layoffs in Fredericton, Moncton, Sydney, and Charlottetown. Whether physical or economic, no one escapes the pain.

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.20 at 10:35 am

@#145 Billybob.

Quick question.
Do the air traffic controllers in China speak English to International flights AND do they speak English to domestic flights?

#148 Damifino on 10.14.20 at 10:41 am

#107 not so fast

When one is on EI you must keep track of what you do daily. One of the questions is are you willing and ready to work? EI isn’t a cake walk.
———————————-

Good to know things haven’t changed. I was on EI for two short months in 1978. (They called it ‘UI’ then).

I was hounded off by a pit bull of a case worker. He threw my resume back at me saying it was full of crap. (He was right). He told me to rewrite it, reduce it to two pages and present it to him the next day. I did so.

The dude was serious. He said I’d need to report to him on the progress of my job search weekly. He wanted a record of kept every place I’d applied, who my contacts were and how many times I’d made follow up calls. Names, dates and times. He’d check them at random.

I grabbed the first minimum wage job I could find (grunt work in a dog food factory) so I wouldn’t have to sit in front of his desk and take any more abuse.

Looking back I now see the wisdom of it all.

#149 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.14.20 at 10:59 am

#127 BillyBob on 10.14.20 at 8:35 am
Inflation: good for the portfolio. Check.

Deflation: good for acquiring hard assets. Check.

Costs: Absolute minimal. No debt. No rent. No mortgage.

So bring on the future, whatever it may hold. I intend to enjoy the wait for the new normal. Don’t really care how long it takes.

Just wish Amazon Deutschland would hurry up and deliver the smart radiator thermostats and boiler controls I ordered yesterday on Prime day. Was going to get them anyway and they were 45% off, love it! Need something to tinker with and I love working with German-made stuff.

Also the apartment has a flue to the fully maintained chimney, so looking to install a free-standing fireplace in the livingroom, can’t decide between gas or wood. Gas: line runs in fairly close proximity already so install shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive, convenient, instant. Wood: amazing ambience, simpler/cheaper and far more traditional but then have to store and replenish it…come on, I know there are some stove experts around! Lookin’ at you IHCTD9! Seems like something Jag would know about as well? Gotta get the place fixed up for when you visit! :-)
—————
Better check with your insurance guy.
There’s no way you gonna get fire insurance with that contraption installed .

#150 BillyBob on 10.14.20 at 11:02 am

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.20 at 10:35 am
@#145 Billybob.

Quick question.
Do the air traffic controllers in China speak English to International flights AND do they speak English to domestic flights?

===================================

English to foreigners, Mandarin to Chinese crews. But that’s the same as many places in the world where the controllers speak the local language to the local pilots and English to everyone else. Montreal Centre will speak French or English depending on what language you first call them in. It’s not great for maintaining situational awareness by listening in and building a mental picture of the traffic situation, I have to admit. But it is permitted under ICAO.

China is kind of a weird place to fly, altitudes are all in metres, as opposed to feet everywhere else in the world. Even the Russians have adopted feet now for enroute altitudes. But to give the Chinese credit, when I first started flying there in about 2007 the “English” and ATC procedures in general were atrocious. It can still be pretty crazy, but it’s WAY better than it used to be.

#151 Dharma Bum on 10.14.20 at 11:06 am

#57 Jess

Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp
——————————————————————–

SPACs are a another good option for diversified investors. They can be held through funds as part of a balanced and diversified portfolio that contains alternative investments, including arbitrage and structured credit strategies.

2021 should be a good year for SPACs. Could be some sweet deals happening out there during volatile times.

And if not? Well, then you get your money back.

Worth a try. Not worse than a crappy GIC or HISA.

#152 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.14.20 at 11:09 am

#140 TurnerNation on 10.14.20 at 9:49 am
#121 Howard that sounds like a Public-Private partnership no? Government bubble/Berlin Wall (so scientific!) and a Private resort.
Cuba…where we all are anyway headed.(UBI. They pretend to pay us we pretend to work.)
Our rights will only come back a bit and only once more the New System is rolled. Early 2021 a bit then into 2022.
What of the new E-Currency, developed by Bank of Canada. 2023 is my guess. This is all about public health Comrade!!
—————–
Agree.
What’s the rush to go to Cuba?
Wait a few years and then we’re Cuba anyway.

#153 Proud Cottager on 10.14.20 at 11:24 am

#36 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 10.13.20 at 4:55 pm

STAY AWAY YOU SELFISH INBRED SOUTHERN HILLBILLIES!

————————————————————-

I truly hope the irony of a northern resident referring to southern residents as ‘hillbillies’ isn’t lost on anyone here.

#154 willworkforpickles on 10.14.20 at 11:37 am

#137 YVR Expat re:#36 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!
“I can’t wait to head up to Blue Mountain this winter. The city will be depressing, nothing to do, can’t even go to the gym. At least we have cottage country.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….

I have a friend up in the Muskoka’s owns a cottage 2 doors down…happens to be from Tennessee.
He has cousins from east Kentucky (real hillbillies) never been out of the hollers in their lives…definitely could liven up the sleepy Muskoka’s inviting the clan up for a visit with their banjo’s and fiddles.
Tells me, they’re not all a bunch of ignorant inbred redneck jackasses, just most of them.
You know… dress em up…still can’t take em anywhere… that kind…but sure can play banjo and fiddle like no tomorrow.
They’d blow Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! guy off the pond.
He’s likely spending too many Sunday’s afternoons sitting with his tea totaler friends sipping tea and watching tiny talent timmie play his accordion.
Then listening to the old biddies commenting… isn’t he a nice boy.
Gets a little old after 50 some odd years.
Angry cottager guy could use a change of pace.

#155 Guelph Guru on 10.14.20 at 11:40 am

Things are getting ridiculous with this money printing orgy and -ve rates. Anyways need advice:
My daughters(students at uni) argue that the govt will pay them more if they quit their part time jobs. All their friends have received more than 10k from the govt. We have told them that CERB and the govt benefits are for those who cannot work and have difficulty getting food or surviving.
Are we the idiots to advice our daughters not to take govt benefits and stay put in the work force?
The choice is 1000s of $s without working or the min wage working at retail stores. Advice needed.

#156 NSNG on 10.14.20 at 11:41 am

In the debates last night Horgan, in his excuse for calling the election a year before necessary, said that covid could be with us next winter and beyond. Is there something he knows that he is not telling us?

I stated before that he wants to have a four-year mandate in order to implement whatever is coming down the pike.

In other news, I wonder about street cleaning this winter. Will governments be so eager to clean the streets? Would this be another method of control and lockdown? How hard will it be to get around with the streets piled high with snow? Maybe just stay home then. Sounds like a plan. But what of all those ‘essential’ workers?

#157 Tommy on 10.14.20 at 12:03 pm

@ Guelph Guru #154:

Tell your daughter to take the money and run. There is no reward for doing the right thing in today’s world, only punishment and pain. The objective is to make as much money as possible in as short a time span as possible. She would be a fool to say no to free money from the government and instead work for minimum wage,which barely covers one’s commuting costs. There is no reward for being an economic martyr and doing honest work. Garth Turner himself told me that one doesn’t get ahead by engaging in hard work in this world. He said that when I talked about working in a gas station since I was 16 and getting frost bite on my hands from the propane gas. Take the free money and run! Working for minimum wage is no way to get ahead!

#158 Tommy on 10.14.20 at 12:09 pm

@ Damifino #147: You were unemployed in 1978 and you got out of that situation by rewriting your resume to bring it under 2 pages. What a quaint touching memory from an out-of-touch baby boomer. If only things were that simple today. Totally clueless about 21st century reality.

#159 Government pensions on 10.14.20 at 12:14 pm

To Penny

So you think government pensions plans are gold plated?
Why because everyone says so?
Let’s put things in prospective.
First, all defined pensions plans that exist when the CPP was created in 1963/4 were combined.
In other words my CPP is part of my government pension.
So I made 110,000 when I retired, my pension after 35 years is 70,000 oh wait you say see big bucks, however, 58,000 is government and 12,000 is CPP. Combined pensions
So it’s not as gold plated as you think.
And I talked to many friends all in the same work as me all made over 150,000 a year. And they bought big houses and toys. When I said to them save for retirement they all laughed at me, oh your so lucky to have a pension plan.
But if you invested your money in an RRSP for 35 years you would have far more monthly income than me plus you get CPP. Plus when you die it’s transferable to your spouse at 100 percent and then passes to your children 100 percent. My pension is reduced by half when I die and ends with my spouse.
So don’t cry poor me when every Canadian has the chance to save money and build wealth.
But as Garth has said so many times Canadians are one paycheck from insolvency.

In the end you make a choice in life I work for the government for lower wages and a solid pension, or I work in the private sector and live within my means and save for retirement.
Or go into politics now there’s a great pension what is it after 2 or 3 terms you get full pension.
Now many of you have not been on this blog very long, Garth gets a political pension, but as he posted many many years ago he donates it to charity.
Amazing guy!

#160 Penny Henny on 10.14.20 at 12:36 pm

#143 BillyBob on 10.14.20 at 10:11 am

Will ponder further, thanks for the opinions.

/////////////////

While all the benefits you mention of wood are true with gas you’ll find because of the convenience you’ll be using it so much more.
As an example maybe you just want it on to take the chill out of the room.

#161 IHCTD9 on 10.14.20 at 12:43 pm

#127 BillyBob on 10.14.20 at 8:35 am

Also the apartment has a flue to the fully maintained chimney, so looking to install a free-standing fireplace in the livingroom, can’t decide between gas or wood. Gas: line runs in fairly close proximity already so install shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive, convenient, instant. Wood: amazing ambience, simpler/cheaper and far more traditional but then have to store and replenish it…come on, I know there are some stove experts around! Lookin’ at you IHCTD9!
____

Well under 40 years old: Wood
Well over 40 years old: Gas

Or, you could try a Pellet stove, it’s the best of both worlds – or as close as you can get. They also make more “flame” than any other stove I’ve seen. The window glass is all fire when I’ve got ours cranked up, lights up the entire downstairs. All that light will sunburn you if you pass out in front of it. Best thing is it will run all day while you are gone, and all night while you sleep. Never a cold house in the am or after work. Lots of maintenance and cleaning though.

FWIW – I am planning on an eventual exit from the pellet stove (this is season #16 with the Harman) – and it’ll be a propane stove replacing it (for secondary heating). Vermont Castings has some very nice free standing NG/LPG stoves.

#162 Penny Henny on 10.14.20 at 12:47 pm

#158 Government pensions on 10.14.20 at 12:14 pm
To Penny

long rant about pensions…

what did I say?

#163 BillyBob on 10.14.20 at 1:00 pm

#160 IHCTD9 on 10.14.20 at 12:43 pm
#127 BillyBob on 10.14.20 at 8:35 am

Also the apartment has a flue to the fully maintained chimney, so looking to install a free-standing fireplace in the livingroom, can’t decide between gas or wood. Gas: line runs in fairly close proximity already so install shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive, convenient, instant. Wood: amazing ambience, simpler/cheaper and far more traditional but then have to store and replenish it…come on, I know there are some stove experts around! Lookin’ at you IHCTD9!
____

Well under 40 years old: Wood
Well over 40 years old: Gas

===============================

Referring to the building, the stove, or the user? :-)

#164 Damifino on 10.14.20 at 1:28 pm

#157 Tommy

I’m glad to hear you were moved by one of my old-timey reminiscences, even though you missed the gist of it. No worry, there’s plenty more where that came from.

Here’s another one. An able bodied young buddy of mine (around 1968) went down to pick up his welfare check one day and they told him he’d been suspended because berry picking season had begun.

The bus was leaving every morning at 6:30 AM just down the street. Strawberries were paid at 50 cents a flat. But the flats better be full or they’ll make three out of four. The poor kid.

BTW, the farms up the Fraser Valley and in the Okanagan couldn’t get nearly enough pickers this year.

#165 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.20 at 1:32 pm

@#158 Govt pensions
“I work for the government for lower wages and a solid pension”
++++

While I agree the average private sector canuck has squandered years of retirement investing…….

You seriously believe you work for “lower pay” in the public sector?
Those days are long gone my coddled amigo.

Dont believe me?

Go work in the private sector and see how your pay, benefits , sick leave, etc. compares to the surly, half a day govt sloths that infest every level of govt.

Sorry.
Aint buyin what you’re sellin’

#166 IHCTD9 on 10.14.20 at 1:45 pm

#162 BillyBob on 10.14.20 at 1:00 pm
#160 IHCTD9 on 10.14.20 at 12:43 pm
#127 BillyBob on 10.14.20 at 8:35 am

Also the apartment has a flue to the fully maintained chimney, so looking to install a free-standing fireplace in the livingroom, can’t decide between gas or wood. Gas: line runs in fairly close proximity already so install shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive, convenient, instant. Wood: amazing ambience, simpler/cheaper and far more traditional but then have to store and replenish it…come on, I know there are some stove experts around! Lookin’ at you IHCTD9!
____

Well under 40 years old: Wood
Well over 40 years old: Gas

===============================

Referring to the building, the stove, or the user? :-)
___

User! Haha

#167 Felix on 10.14.20 at 2:00 pm

Less than zero…?

Yes, that is an accurate valuation of two dogs.

#168 It's all harpo's fault on 10.14.20 at 2:11 pm

Yeah ok T2….

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-trudeau-blames-cuts-under-harper-for-public-health-agencys-ills/

#169 Guelph Guru on 10.14.20 at 2:24 pm

#156 Tommy

Tx.

#170 Brett in Calgary on 10.14.20 at 2:32 pm

#116 islander on 10.14.20 at 12:21 am
#38 Brett in Calgary
============
Thanks Islander!

#171 Lambchop on 10.14.20 at 2:45 pm

#154 Guelph Guru on 10.14.20 at 11:40 am
Things are getting ridiculous with this money printing orgy and -ve rates. Anyways need advice:
My daughters(students at uni) argue that the govt will pay them more if they quit their part time jobs. All their friends have received more than 10k from the govt. We have told them that CERB and the govt benefits are for those who cannot work and have difficulty getting food or surviving.
Are we the idiots to advice our daughters not to take govt benefits and stay put in the work force?
The choice is 1000s of $s without working or the min wage working at retail stores. Advice needed.

_________

Welfare trap and potential moral hazard. Not worth it. Most people who receive anything for “free” end up with a feeling of obligation on some level. Do you really want your children to feel obligated to vote for Trudeau?

Why would anyone add to our insane debt levels, unless it was absolutely necessary? Do your daughters understand who will be repaying the money that’s being handed out willy-nilly?

Just my $0.02

#172 Love_The_Cottage on 10.14.20 at 2:52 pm

I feel for restaurant owners, that is a tough business at the best of times. However some places that were able to transition to take out / delivery are actually doing better than before.

I’m getting an awning for the backyard, they are booking next spring now. Says business is triple a normal year. Parts of the economy are booming.

#173 Linda on 10.14.20 at 10:01 pm

#141 ‘YVR’ – indeed there have been loans, which may or may not be paid back. Hard for a bankrupt company to pay back anything to anyone. However, aside from the loans – $100 million towards the orphan well program for example – there have been subsidies from tax relief, royalty holidays & other breaks given to the O&G industry to the tune of at least $1.6 billion per year over a 3 year period (2016-2019). Then there is the $1.5 billion equity investment (which is taxpayer money) in Keystone XL, plus an additional $6 billion in loan guarantees, also funded by the taxpayer. For a pipeline project that Biden has proclaimed he will cancel should he become POTUS. So if the line isn’t being built, what exactly is the outcome of that $6 billion loan guarantee? What is the likelihood that the $1.5 billion equity investment does not come back to Alberta government coffers? Add in the cancellation of the oil by rail project, which also cost the Alberta government quite a pile of change.

About those orphan well ‘loans’ – the well is orphaned because the O&G company responsible either went bankrupt or abandoned the well. Good luck in getting that ‘loan’ paid back.

#174 Randy Zalenski on 10.14.20 at 11:29 pm

So I guess my 4.36% to 5.05% interest rates, long term government bonds 27 years to 29 years maturities were a good buy first from my RRSP’s then RRIF’s and later TFSA’s back in the 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 years from my CIPF protected investment dealer.

They did seem low at that time as I remember my parents talking about 8.5% to 9% interest rates when they came from Poland to Canada back in 1993, 1994.

#175 David Zimmer on 10.14.20 at 11:55 pm

Tommy, you are what is wrong with now modern societies and economies. You really think what money you get from government and from anyone else is free. You are truly brainwashed.

I have worked not much more than minimum wage, 15% to 20% maximum for 42 years, I have worked part-time as a 16 years old and full-time+ for decades, 60 to 70 hours a week. We have pride in ourselves and our family. I know many people that want a hand up not a handout. You don’t know history of long term government handouts and how that destroys countries, economies, societies.

I managed to get married, my wife works full time still after 36 years not making much more than me, 25% maximum more than minimum wage, $17.45 an hour today. We raised 2 kids fully grown now very successful in their own lives. We have a modest house in Hamilton, $450,000 worth maximum, we have $720,000 in RRSP’s, $85,000 in TFSA’s, a $45,000 reserve account and DRIP’s worth $110,000 in non-registered money.

We made sure all our extra saved money year in and year out first went to RRSP’s, usually 10% to 12% took the RRSP tax refund reinvested that in RRSP’s too if that was full went to non-registered later TFSA’s when they first came out in 2009.

We have no debts. Our family’s conscience is clean and we can leave this earth tomorrow that we have not stolen anything and we have contributed and paid in to Canada way more than we ever received. The problem is people think that everything today should be free and let others, suckers pay for it. What happens when all the suckers are gone, you become the sucker. Just wait it will be here sooner than you think if we keep going like this in Canada.