Countdown to Nov.3

RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
.

While it’s often said during elections that, “this is the most important election in years”, I think it’s fair to say that this really is one of the most important votes in recent memory. The US is the most divided it has been in as I long as I can remember over critical issues like Covid-19, the direction of the US economy, racial tensions, climate change, the Supreme Court and so much more, which are all on the table come November 3rd. And of course we have the potential (probable?) outcome of a contested US election by Trump if he doesn’t win. No wonder I’ve doubled up on my consumption of antacid pills!

So much has changed in just a few months. In January, before the pandemic hit, I would have put the odds of a Trump re-election at above 60% with the US unemployment rate at a 70 year low, US equity markets hitting new all-time highs, and the US securing an important trade deal with China. Then Covid hit and changed everything!

Trump’s handling of the pandemic has been subpar (those daily White House updates were train wrecks). Coupled with the deepest recession seen in decades and the most explosive racial tensions witnessed since the 1960s, it’s no wonder Trump is on his back heels and down in the polls.

Currently, the Real Clear Politics national poll has Biden leading by 8 points, which has increased in recent weeks following the debate, if you could call it that, and the huge news that Trump was infected with the virus last week.

Yes the polls got it dead wrong in 2016, so it’s by no means a lock for Biden, but that doesn’t mean the polls are destined to err this time.

One stat that should be very concerning to the Trump campaign is support of those over 65. In the 2016 election against Clinton, he won those voters by over 9%. Currently, Trump’s trailing by 21% based on a CNN poll and an even wider 27% from a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. If this holds into Election Day, then this may end up costing Trump his second term.

RCP Poll Average – Trump vs Biden

Source: Real Clear Politics

What has me most concerned is a potentially contested US election by President Trump. Numerous times when pressed by the media and reporters on whether he would accept the election results, Trump has responded with “we’ll see”. He’s made his position very clear that he believes there will be significant voter fraud in this election, potentially setting the stage for him to contest the results come November 3rd. And given we’ll likely see a record number of mail-in ballots due to the pandemic, we could be looking at weeks and potentially months before we have a confirmed winner.

Looking back on the Bush/Gore 2000 election, it took over a month for a Supreme Court ruling to determine the winner, with markets getting whacked during this period of uncertainty (the S&P 500 declined 8% over this period).

My hope is that there will be a clear winner come November 3rd and the losing candidate, whether it be Biden or Trump, recognize the importance of a peaceful transition to a well-functioning democracy and concedes, so that we can avoid this unnecessary and pointless period of uncertainty and likely short-term market weakness.

S&P 500 Performance during Gore/Bush Contested Election

Source: Stockcharts.com, Turner Investments

If markets do come under pressure I believe it will be short-lived and could prove to be a buying opportunity, as the Supreme Court would then get involved and clean up the mess. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to this!

Trump keeps saying and some believe that a Biden win would be catastrophic for the economy and stock market. I don’t buy this for a few reasons.

First, while the US President is important, the business cycle, interest rates and other macro factors are far more critical to the economy and stock market.

Second, if Biden does win and we potentially see a “blue wave”, there could be a larger stimulus plan and potentially higher growth. Both Goldman Sachs and Moody’s predict higher GDP and job growth under Biden’s economic plans compared to Trump’s current policies.

Third, contrary to common perception, the stock market has historically done better under a Democratic president. Below I provide the annual price change for the Dow Jones since 1990 under both a Republican and Democratic President. If I sum up each yearly return under every president, Democrat presidents have seen a higher 35% return to the Republican Presidents of 27%. But this isn’t the best way to look at returns.

Dow Jones Average Price Return by President & Year

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Below is a better chart where I calculated the average performance of the S&P 500 under both Democratic and Republican presidents over the four-year term. On average, the S&P 500 has gained 56% (price return only) under a democratic president versus 27% under a republican president.

S&P 500 Performance under Different Presidents

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments. Based on S&P 500 data from 1945 to present

So there you have it! In 25 days from now we’ll either have a second Trump term, or a new Democratic president who will basically reverse much of what Trump has done over the last 4 years. Some welcome this prospect with open arms while others want to see more Trump. Elections matter, and this one especially.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

128 comments ↓

#1 Apocalypse2020 on 10.10.20 at 9:11 am

25 Days to Global Catastrophe

PREPARE

#2 willworkforpickles on 10.10.20 at 9:39 am

Forget normalcy…pre-covid normalcy whatever that was.
It doesn’t concern the pandemic coming and going or the US election coming and going.
After they’re gone, change and ever worsening change as a constant stays… becomes the norm. .
The relatively quiet madness seen now as spin-off side effects to the virus and the US election will pale by comparison to the consequential fallout that is arriving like an invading force.
The maniacal out of control debt spending with zero restraints no matter who wins in November have entered a vacuum…a death spiral gone into a blackhole past all point of return.
Forget increasing debt as a side effect of covid-19.
Covid-19 is a side effect of increasing debt.
It will fade…but worsening worldwide calamities will skyrocket.
Disregard simple laws of the universe…and mortal man implodes.

#3 the Jaguar on 10.10.20 at 9:48 am

‘What has me most concerned is a potentially contested US election by President Trump. Numerous times when pressed by the media and reporters on whether he would accept the election results, Trump has responded with “we’ll see”. —————

Isn’t it just possible that refusing to respond to a hostile media question which implies he doesn’t win the election is just the Trump approach to facing challenges, i.e. “We’re not going to talk about defeat, we’re going to talk only about winning’. A mindset of sorts. Kind of like Gene Hackman in Hoosiers for those who are familiar with the movie. Stay positive. Negative thinking is for losers.
Love him or hate him it’s only fair to admit the media has been attacking him like zealots for four years with the Democrats putting him through the ringer with crap like ‘RussiaGate’, etc. Also fair to say that the extensive use of mail in ballots does raise some concerns when you are dealing with a party that will stop at nothing to achieve a win, including standing back with zipped lips during all the burning and rioting. Probably funded some of it in Oregon.
It’s a bit of a tired narrative to conclude Trump will ‘barricade’ himself into the Oval Office like nut out of Waco, Texas.
Until the results are in he may not be wired to talk about defeat, and maybe it’s been a successful strategy for him during his lifetime.
Maybe he deserves the benefit of the doubt? Or is that beneath us?

#4 salmon arm on 10.10.20 at 9:53 am

FDR was Dem nice try.

#5 Cheekmonster on 10.10.20 at 10:09 am

According to your chart Nixon sure did well during is 7th and 8th years :-) :-)

#6 -=withwings=- on 10.10.20 at 10:16 am

The FBI/CIA/IRS will all announce investigations into Biden in the next few weeks. Trump wins. The only real question is, will it be Ivanka or Eric for 2024?

#7 TurnerNation on 10.10.20 at 10:18 am

Hello Comrades. Greeting from my UN Smart City. I am feeling exceedingly healthier today, now that our Glorious Leader again has shut the gyms and banned gatherings in my Prefecture. Work work work – we have fresh debts to be paid.

This is like Life in Toronto today?It’s shut down. No cinemas, pool halls; streets are empty; no music no weddings permitted.
#stayhome

https://www.pri.org/stories/2009-08-07/life-under-taliban
KABUL — “It was a golden time,” said Nasimi, recalling his teenage years under the Taliban. “There was nothing to distract you — no cinema, no snooker parlors, not too many people on the streets. You could catch your breath.”
Of course, the Taliban also imposed a set of rules and restrictions that soon set the population’s teeth on edge: no music, no kite-flying, no shaving of beards.

“It is one of the bitterest memories of my life,” he said. “Weddings at that time were like funerals, since no one was allowed to play music

I still remember those seven years, when I was locked up at home,” said Shukria, who is now a literature student at Herat University. “I fell so far behind in terms of development. I was in prison —

#8 Christopher Boland on 10.10.20 at 10:29 am

Franklin Roosevelt is a democrat

#9 You say most divided on 10.10.20 at 10:30 am

I think one of the biggest benefits of Trump being in politics is that we are all a little more politically aware of what we stand for.

I know for sure I am for all lives matter, gender equality, racial equality, jobs, higher incomes, law and order, school choice, lower taxes, stronger stock markets, lower pharma/medi, no illegal immigration, balanced trade, balanced national/global relations, and so on.

That means one thing … a vote for Trump. And now how is it I’m in Canada voting for theatrical dress up and a master of Ukranian history. Lol.

#10 Christopher Boland on 10.10.20 at 10:33 am

Franklin D Roosevelt is a Democrat not a Republican as stated in the chart above.

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.20 at 10:39 am

While I expect Trump to lose by an undeniable majority…..

It really wont matter to Trump.
He’s the quintessential “bad loser”.

And in the bizarre political landscape of US Presidential handing over of power….he will have 3 looooong months to spew his vitriol.

He should be booted out of Office Nov 4th.
But the daily tweets should be amusing, embarrassing and , for the rest of the world….entertaining.

I have money to invest…but I may sit out the markets until at least Feb 1st.

#12 Prairieboy43 on 10.10.20 at 10:45 am

Money still on Trump. Stamp it.
PB43

#13 Ael Idich on 10.10.20 at 11:01 am

It’s not Trump contesting the election that’s to worry about. Biden not conceding and the following coup that’s already in the works is the real uncertainty, and scary at that. They cleverly call it the Transition Integrity Project. It should scare the devil out of any freedom loving person. Second, Biden is a non-player, the Dems just laid their cards on the table with the 25th amendment bill. They aren’t even hiding it anymore. If Biden wins he will be replaced post haste with that awful Harris. She was so awful she didn’t make it through the primaries. The safest vote is a vote for Trump. Anything else brings chaos and fundamental restructuring of the world‘s only and last remaining true free society. What a time we live in.

#14 Flop... on 10.10.20 at 11:01 am

Morning Rhino, I went looking for the howmuch version of this chart, couldn’t find it, but stumbled upon this financial samurai version.

The first chart looked familiar, maybe Robax put it up during one of his posts?

Anyway, a few snippets…

M46BC

“But upon closer inspection, it looks like between 1968 – 1978 and 2000 – 2009, both periods under Republican presidents, the S&P 500 didn’t go anywhere. In contrast, the S&P 500 has advanced higher under every Democratic president since 1933.

Therefore, if you are a stock investor, then at the margin, you should be rooting for another Democrat as president starting in 2021. However, let’s look at the stock market performance details by president a little more closely.

From the chart, we see that Bill Clinton tops the charts with roughly an 18% annualized equities return during his presidency. Bush Junior was the worst performer with a -3% annualized equities return under his presidency. Bush Junior was unlucky because of 911 and the wars.”

https://www.financialsamurai.com/stock-market-performance-under-a-democrat-or-a-republican-president/

#15 Bob on 10.10.20 at 11:29 am

Apocalypse2020 on 10.10.20 at 9:11 am
25 Days to Global Catastrophe

PREPARE

————-

Take off the tin foil hat, loser..

#16 KNOW IT ALL on 10.10.20 at 11:32 am

BUMP all that ELECTION NOISE and any other problems America has.

2 Rules to investing:

1) Have CASH available on-hand at all times.
2) BUY LOW, SELL HIGH.

It’s just that SIMPLE. This doesn’t need to be overworked.

#17 G on 10.10.20 at 11:36 am

Some might be interested,
Especially if you like to hear others peoples take on current events.
Yes I know the views of the other side could be incorrect. But since I have witnessed some so-called fact to turn out to be incorrect or a myth that is still dogma for some on somethings. Who am I to know or decide what to believe without at least taking a peek? Either way I find having a looking entertaining on some level.

These two sites seem to have a view point-perspective-take on current and possible future events that is in contrast with the main stream media. If you just can’t stand trump just hold your noise, you might find the info just has entertainment value, or not.
Unfortunately the sites require some time to hear. And they keep posting more stuff most days.
If you’re not interested at all don’t even look. They did help me understand why some people are still thinking of voting for trump again. Despite the polls numbers the main stream media puts out, and we now know how good there were last time right.

The sites are called:
Tore Says Show: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcrgrO-XTok0-66tFqwT2QA
(Tore says clams to be a former government contractor how had access to inside info)

and X22 Report. https://www.youtube.com/user/X22Report
(X22 report, Discuses financial and geo politics, there take on things.)

I found them on YouTube, but with the Silicon Valley censorship (equivalent to book burning sites and ideas) that is apparently taking place, who knows for how long? You might need to look other places.
I fast forward/skip over some of the music and adds I come across in them to save time for other more important things like my family.
I recall hearing someone say somethings, to the effect that you can ignore politics but politics with affect your life. Once you have two people in a room there is always some politics.
Of course some people running for office never lie, right, not. If you think you know one make sure you vote for them and even help get them into office. I have to believe there are some good people that are still running for office worth voting for, otherwise there’s not much hope left is there.
Try and find out what they are hoping to do in office, without going through the corporate run media filter if you can.
The last couple time I voted it was for what I thought was the person or the party’s leader that would cause less harm, not the best person for the job. I believed Mr. Garth Turner was a good pick at the time, but seem not everyone felt the same way. And he’s not an option anymore. He seems to have moved on to bigger and better things. I’d guess he is still involved in politics at some level. I wish him well.
I’m sure there are some other persons that will step up to run for office that we can trust. It’s just hard to figure out whom they are sometimes.
I can’t vote in the USA, but hope they can manage to pull off a vote of the people that is far the best choice for everyone in the long run.

#18 El presidente on 10.10.20 at 11:39 am

Eh Ryan, FDR was a dem…… sheesh…

#19 Sean on 10.10.20 at 11:41 am

Switching FDR to Democrat will push things even more in favour of Democrats.

#20 Millennial 1%er on 10.10.20 at 11:41 am

buy the uncertainty

#21 Flop... on 10.10.20 at 11:44 am

During my moments looking for a chart for today’s topic, I stumbled upon this chart that was showing a roadmap to a net zero integrated energy system.

I thought maybe a few people on the blog might be interested with their plans.

Albertans and Gravy Train in particular, but who knows…

M46BC

Building a net-zero energy system.

How the UK oil and gas industry can play a pivotal role.

“Does the UK’s commitment to decarbonisation sound the death knell for its ultra-mature oil and gas sector? I chatted to Malcolm Forbes-Cable, VP Consulting, who co-authored Closing the Gap – Technology for a Net Zero North Sea. On the contrary: he reckons it could be a golden opportunity for the industry to re-invent itself.”

https://www.woodmac.com/news/the-edge/building-a-net-zero-energy-system/?utm_campaign=the-edge&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=1601910766

#22 Brian Ripley on 10.10.20 at 12:08 pm

Is there any point in sharing my post on how Trump fits the profile of a malignant narcissist?

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/predator-trump

The Trump fan boys on this blog and the Trump cult base would rather have the rest of us believe otherwise.

Trump’s iteration of necropolitics is dangerous. Read the literature on his mental state. Those of us who have had dealings with people with sociopathic traits know first hand the devastation of being duped by them.

It’s difficult to believe that the Trump promoters in this comment section could be so naive; but that is the power of serial liars over their followers.

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.20 at 12:20 pm

@#16 NO it all

” BUY LOW, SELL HIGH.
It’s just that SIMPLE.
++++

Tom Vu beat you by 30 years

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K853GykeGH0

#24 Canuck on 10.10.20 at 12:29 pm

Second, if Biden does win and we potentially see a “blue wave”, there could be a larger stimulus plan and potentially higher growth. Both Goldman Sachs and Moody’s predict higher GDP and job growth under Biden’s economic plans compared to Trump’s current policies.
_______________________________________________

Before COVID hit earlier this year, America had 3.5% unemployment and they think under Biden it will go lower??? Please… smh

BTW, other than raising taxes, what is Biden’s economic platform? I haven’t seen it.

#25 David Green on 10.10.20 at 12:32 pm

From TREB’s September Resale Housing Report:

Am I missing something? How is going from 3,403 to 6480 a “215% spike”?

“Active listings of condos in downtown Toronto hit a record at the end of September and were 215 per cent higher than a year earlier, according to Urbanation data.
.
.

Across the Toronto region, owners listed 6,480 condos for sale in September, up from 5,599 in August and 3,403 in the same month a year earlier”,

Oh and you lost me as soon as you quoted from
RealClearPolitics. That site is hardly an objective source. I’ve never known it be anything but right-leaning on every single issue, and it never has the tiniest positive thing to say about any politician who’s not right-wing.
Please cite other evidence, if you can find it.

#26 an investor on 10.10.20 at 12:47 pm

DELETED

#27 DON on 10.10.20 at 12:49 pm

@ Jag…Yuppers.

@Sara…you have no fear and require no back up…nice! Both you and Crowded provide good laughs. Let’s keep it clean and respectable.

@Ryan…the other night Garth made a comment about something coming in Jan? If he’s not moderating today and if you know…can you tell us? Enhanced stress test as the Bank of Canada pointed out.

#28 Brian Ripley on 10.10.20 at 1:17 pm

Back to Real Estate data.

My sales, listings, absorption rates and months of inventory charts are up with SEP data:
http://www.chpc.biz/sales-listings.html

Total Sales volumes in the hot jurisdictions are attempting to break out but total inventory levels in Vancouver and Toronto are zooming.

#29 Figmund Sreud on 10.10.20 at 1:26 pm

Germane article from The Atlantic, … but short snip, first:

“An important thing to know about the Interregnum is that there is no umpire—no singular authority who can decide … The interregnum allots 35 days for the count, and its attendant lawsuits to be resolved. On the 36th day, December 8, an important deadline arrives.

At this stage, the actual tabulation of the vote becomes less salient to the outcome. That sounds as though it can’t be right, but it is: The combatants, especially Trump, will now shift their attention to the appointment of presidential College Electors. ”

The Election That Could Break America
If the vote is close, Donald Trump could easily throw the election into chaos and subvert the result. Who will stop him?

… and here is POTUS’s stance:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1288933078287745024

Oh, sparks will fly! Guaranteed.

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, AB.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/?utm_campaign=wp_todays_worldview&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_todayworld

#30 Don Guillermo on 10.10.20 at 1:29 pm

Meant to lay this down today instead of yesterday.

#119 TurnerNation on 10.09.20 at 11:43 pm

Be informed Ontario.
Another lockdown is planned.
Businesses brace yourselves.
We need constitutional lawyers, MPs to step up and do something.
They’re not listening to the people.
Most won’t get through another lockdown
**************************************
https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ontario-death-count-includes-people-who-didnt-die-of-covid-19-but-exactly-how-many-is-unknown

“Toronto Public Health continues to follow the provincial definition for how COVID-19 deaths are categorized,” said Dr. Vinita Dubey, Toronto’s associate medical officer of health. “This means that individuals who have died with COVID-19, but not necessarily as a result of COVID-19, are all included in the case counts for COVID-19 deaths in Toronto.”
———————————————
#131 Sky on 10.10.20 at 6:48 am
@ Sara & crowdedelevatorfartz

Excellent post Sky!

#31 Linda on 10.10.20 at 1:39 pm

Ryan, don’t think Trump will accept anything other than victory. His is not the kind of personality that cares about anyone other than himself so I’d not hold out hope for a peaceful transition should the polls/electoral college counts declare Biden the winner. Trump will claim voter fraud, electoral college fraud, media bias & whatever else he can think of to explain why the outcome wasn’t in his favour.

#32 Prince Polo on 10.10.20 at 1:42 pm

Ryan – I noticed some fiery passion in your voice during a recent weekly investor call when you spoke on the topic of “juicy dividends”. Well sir, that passion jumped tenfold when you spoke two weeks ago about our reckless PM:
“He acts as if he is the word of God and what he says is fact.” and “what about all that transparency that he was supposed to bring?!”

You’ve got a new fan, bro!!

I became overtly suspicious of Trudeau when he didn’t follow through with his promise of electoral reform. He put it even more over the top by questioning dissenters. I’m so glad you have seen this egomaniac for what he is: Prime Minister Hogwash! I wish he were running a pig bathing company in Calgary, instead of buying off voters left, right, & centre. Maybe then, he wouldn’t hate small business owners or AB so much.

When will others notice the emperor with no clothing, I wonder?

#33 Turnip Nation on 10.10.20 at 1:50 pm

Ya Democratic win always fixes unemployment and the US stock market.

#34 greyhound on 10.10.20 at 1:58 pm

First, while the US President is important, the business cycle, interest rates and other macro factors are far more critical to the economy and stock market.

Yes, and Stanley Druckenmiller, arguably one of the smartest living investors on the planet, just said on CNBC, “Right now, we’re in an absolute raging mania. We’ve got commentators encouraging companies to do stock splits. Companies then go up 50%, 30%, 40% on stock splits. That brings no value, but the stocks go up.”

An “absolute raging mania” might also have some effect on the economy and stock market…

#35 S.Bby on 10.10.20 at 2:04 pm

Just remember this: Trump is a narcissist and a psychopath and he doesn’t like to lose and this should tell us all we need to know for what will happen after November 3rd.

#36 Edmonton Dave on 10.10.20 at 2:25 pm

Dear Ryan, while I always enjoy your posts, you forget the silent majority of Americans. Most Americans are afraid of retaliation for supporting President Trump. But their wallets are thicker, their lives were great up until the Chinese virus. They will vote Trump because they support law and order and common sense. Really !!!
Remember 2016, accurate polls, eh ???

#37 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 10.10.20 at 2:40 pm

My master is running me at maximum output. But good news, he tells me I will be getting a sibling soon to help make more.

I’m sorry to all those who saved and invested money in Canada. Your dollars won’t be worth as much as they used to be soon. But as long as people don’t stop believing in the concept of money we will be okay.

The joke is truly on those of who work hard, save, invest, and have self control.

#38 Bill on 10.10.20 at 2:43 pm

DELETED

#39 Don Guillermo on 10.10.20 at 2:43 pm

DELETED

#40 Spectacle on 10.10.20 at 2:44 pm

135 Midnights on 10.08.20 at 9:34 pm
I bet you didn’t read about this 220 million donation by Trudeau.
https://youtu.be/FRYXTrZSGTM

————–/————————

Just a bump to “Midnights ” entry from the other day.

An astonishing Canadian mess of blatant corruption and destruction of Canada by Prime minister. From organized criminal ( corrupt foreign ) influence and association, political interference, self enrichment and lies.

#41 Coho on 10.10.20 at 3:04 pm

Funny that Trump wasn’t hated by the “Establishment” or much anyone else before he got into politics. You’d think he was the skunk that stunk up the noble, upstanding sanctity of the political sphere and the angels that are members of it.

T won in 2016 much to the chagrin of the Deep State. Despite attempts to thwart his winning and every attempt to remove him since, we hear cries that we won’t leave if he loses.

Wrong is wrong. How can people defend the Dems antics over the past 4 and a half years? What happened to principles of right versus wrong?

T is/was seen as only partially controllable at best, hence the onslaught against him by every angle. I’m not a T fan and certainly not a Biden fan. I’ve written that neither party is really for the people, yet they cheerlead for one side or the other. It’s sad really.

Does anyone seriously believe that if the Dems lose again they will concede and congratulate him? The USA is basically in a civil war.

#42 Figmund Sreud on 10.10.20 at 3:08 pm

… while the US President is important, the business cycle, interest rates and other macro factors are far more critical to the economy and stock market.
_________________________

I’m so glad you included in above “and other macro factors”. This allows me to bring in something, from the margin, that may just be “far more critical to the economy and stock market” . Here it goes:

Announcing the Expansion of the Clean Network to Safeguard America’s Assets
https://www.state.gov/announcing-the-expansion-of-the-clean-network-to-safeguard-americas-assets/

Have a good gander at above first, … than consider the situation: Trump et al seem convinced that the U.S. can use its financial and trade muscle – while the U.S. still predominates – to crush China’s rise, disconnect it from World Wide Network.

Such presidential conviction, at least to me, means this is no longer just a Cold War with China but an initial salvo across the stern, … and abclear prelude to a Warm War! But what do I know, …

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#43 Scott in Gibsons on 10.10.20 at 3:16 pm

It’s possible Trump is intentionally putting himself front and centre to cover for the team in the background who are really driving the change we see. Hard to believe that one outsider could enter the swamp and not be immediately sidelined. His role may be to draw all the fire.

#44 Dogman01 on 10.10.20 at 3:28 pm

We are societies of altruists governed by psychopaths, that those who claim to represent us, those who get into positions of power, are very often wildly different in that psychology to those whom they claim to represent.” – George Monbiot

“Obama and his predecessors created the mire from which Trump rose. When you put your boot on the neck of your citizens and threaten their survival and hope to thrive then you get a fallback to nationalism, preying on fear and eventually riots. “

“Biden – He’s an errand boy sent by grocery clerks to collect a bill.” -Handsome Ned

#45 Bill on 10.10.20 at 3:29 pm

And to speak to s&p performance.
Nobody cut tax for the yanks like trump.
Lets be clear its been a war to kill trump since day 1.
The idiot Kanukle heads that trash hi i can gaurentee they have no biz sence. They should be trashing T2 go figure. A idiot that rewards failure and has at least 2 scandle ayrr that we know of.
He was an anomaly and ive never seen him get credit for that.
My family has small buisness in thedoing $600k yr..WA state.
Sorry for crap grammer spelling no time small handset :-)

#46 Mathew S Gibson on 10.10.20 at 3:35 pm

Trump isn’t trying to win a second term.

He’s done with being president and Melania is really done with being first lady.

He strategy is to establish a narrative of a stolen election so that once he is out he can pretend he actually won, but not have to actually govern anymore.

He will get to play more golf, still have the media attention to rant and have done what he loves most of all: sown chaos while being the centre of attention.

#47 Bill on 10.10.20 at 3:44 pm

Brace for impact….maybe 2 yrs then poof the debt blow out Europe goes global. Mikes got it correct.
As a business peson of 25 yrs has given me a good nose to sniff out where we go.
Ive had peeps ask for biz advice but they dont have the mind set. They still broke (like your gov) me got $$ and will deffend it big time.

#48 Sydneysider on 10.10.20 at 3:46 pm

Some statistics for a quiet Saturday.

Excess deaths in BC, March-August 2020 = 1204

Deaths attributed to Cov-19 to October 10 in 2020 = 245.

[Using deaths data from BC coroner’s office. Monthly excess calculated as difference between 2020 monthly deaths and 2017-2019 average deaths for same month.]

In other words, almost 5 times as many actual excess deaths this year prior to September as those attributed to Cov-19. It will get worse. These are 900+ nameless people who have been pushed into the wider shadow of despair, poverty, ill-health, cast by the economic and social restrictions.

When politicians in BC and Ottawa stand up and tell us that their policies are keeping “all” Canadians safe, you can only marvel at their ability to keep straight faces.

#49 Flop... on 10.10.20 at 3:47 pm

“Second, if Biden does win and we potentially see a “blue wave”, there could be a larger stimulus plan and potentially higher growth. Both Goldman Sachs and Moody’s predict higher GDP and job growth under Biden’s economic plans compared to Trump’s current policies.”- Ryan.

////////////////////////

History supports this statement, if only by luck if you believe this crusty chart from the economist in 2014 that focuses on GDP.

This one has the Nixon/Ford split baked in.

Timing and luck seem to be the biggest difference rather than policy.

Maybe this old phrase could be modified to be more political.

Lefty Loosey , Righty Tighty.

Bad as each other nowadays?

Austerity is dead on the kitchen table, and no one is reaching for the paddles.

M46BC

———————————–

“SINCE 1961…the Republicans have held the White House 28 years, the Democrats 24,” said Bill Clinton in 2012. “In those 52 years, our private economy has produced 66m private-sector jobs. So what’s the jobs score? Republicans 24m, Democrats 42[m].” In the two years since, Barack Obama has increased the Democrats’ lead by close to 5m.

Since the second world war the economy has done better under Democratic presidents, who have overseen more job creation and higher stockmarket returns than Republican leaders. During this time the economy has grown about 1.8 percentage points faster when a Democrat occupies the White House (see chart). Messrs Clinton and Obama credit their economic policies. But new research suggests it has more to do with luck.”

The Lucky Left Chart.

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2014/08/09/timing-is-everything

#50 Jimmy Zhao on 10.10.20 at 3:47 pm

I appreciate the analysis and charts to with it.

#51 Ryan Lewenza on 10.10.20 at 3:58 pm

the Jaguar “Isn’t it just possible that refusing to respond to a hostile media question which implies he doesn’t win the election is just the Trump approach to facing challenges, i.e. “We’re not going to talk about defeat, we’re going to talk only about winning’. A mindset of sorts.”

Yeah that’s one way to view it. But look at his past and his character. He absolutely hates losing, probably more than he likes winning. He just can’t accept losing, which is why he’s setting the stage to contest the results. If Trump or Biden wins big then I don’t think it’s an issue. But if it’s close then we won’t know who the President is come Nov 3rd. – Ryan L

#52 Vanreal on 10.10.20 at 3:58 pm

FDR was a democrat.

#53 Ryan Lewenza on 10.10.20 at 4:02 pm

Christopher Boland “Franklin D Roosevelt is a Democrat not a Republican as stated in the chart above.”

Correct. Typo! – Ryan L

#54 The WOMBAT on 10.10.20 at 4:04 pm

In case the polls are correct and the Dems win in Nov., is this a good time to be purchasing US dollars?
If the polls are wrong and we have President Donald T-rump for the next 4 years, is this a good time to be purchasing US dollars?
Retirement is around the corner and I hate winter. We want to travel next year if…
M61ON

#55 Ryan Lewenza on 10.10.20 at 4:10 pm

Prince Polo “Ryan – I noticed some fiery passion in your voice during a recent weekly investor call when you spoke on the topic of “juicy dividends”. Well sir, that passion jumped tenfold when you spoke two weeks ago about our reckless PM: “He acts as if he is the word of God and what he says is fact.” and “what about all that transparency that he was supposed to bring?!” You’ve got a new fan, bro!!”

Trump says and does a lot of things that piss me off, but Justin really gets my blood boiling. – Ryan L

#56 In other news on 10.10.20 at 4:21 pm

Canadians have returned 830,000 pandemic benefit payments

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cra-cerb-repayments-1.5748334

McGill has partnered with the Royal Bank of Canada and The Globe and Mail to offer an eight-module course on the essentials of personal finance. The program is offered in both English and French, and is free.

https://mcgillpersonalfinance.com/

#57 I believe everything on television on 10.10.20 at 4:53 pm

TN’s predictions are coming true. Tim Horton’s doing a big expansion into the UK. Good time to be looking for commercial real estate sites, no? Do you remember when Tim’s in Ontario announced that they were going to close sit down service? That’s right, it was before Doug Ford forced them to close. Who’s leading who?

#58 Penny Henny on 10.10.20 at 5:17 pm

#27 DON on 10.10.20 at 12:49 pm

@Ryan…the other night Garth made a comment about something coming in Jan? If he’s not moderating today and if you know…can you tell us? Enhanced stress test as the Bank of Canada pointed out
//////////

Garth not moderating?
Puh-leeze

This is what he does for fun (sad).

#59 Bill on 10.10.20 at 5:18 pm

Peeps
Trump is not the problem so get off your soap box.
Systemic problems of today started manifesting decades ago. Pointing a finger at this point is Naive as hell.
Shallow thinking. There are no real leaders anymore.
Its like daaaaaaa… I’m 45 yrs old (I’m 54 so sad time fly’s but I started planning 35 years ago) and my house is on fire so maybe I should get out of debt and buy fire insurance…
That’s where most live….but they sure got a opinion on politics or what works. Find a mirror…

#60 Bill on 10.10.20 at 5:25 pm

Ask T2 how solar panels will power this stuff……
God humanity looks like a a pile of suckers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0pS3Zx7Fc8

I spent 26 year in helicopters building cell networks…The rubber bands didn’t work. Wish I could post a cool pic. Grounded in our A-Star in a forest fire in Ft St John oil patch.
Enjoy you cell call…. you are being lied too everyday. The green deal is a lie and hell I got and electric car….why near zero maintenance….more time to fall trees and run my Heavy equip.
:-)

#61 Penny Henny on 10.10.20 at 5:33 pm

#55 Ryan Lewenza on 10.10.20 at 4:10 pm

Trump says and does a lot of things that piss me off, but Justin really gets my blood boiling. – Ryan L
//////////////////

Just as it should be. You are in Canada.

#62 Daves not here on 10.10.20 at 5:37 pm

Buy UVXY at open on Monday. You will make a killing. Right now it is so low. Like a gift.

#63 Johnny D on 10.10.20 at 5:46 pm

You’re trusting a poll from CNN?

#64 Penny Henny on 10.10.20 at 5:52 pm

I thought this would tie in well with your post today Ryan.

https://ritholtz.com/2020/10/random-thoughts-2020-election/

There is even a chart!

#65 Leo Trollstoy on 10.10.20 at 6:02 pm

For investors in accumulation phase looking to buy stocks, Republicans are best

For investors who are retired and looking to sell stocks, Democrats are best

I’m still looking to get richer. Republicans are best for me

#66 Dogman01 on 10.10.20 at 6:04 pm

#55 Ryan Lewenza on 10.10.20 at 4:10 pm

“He acts as if he is the word of God and what he says is fact.” and “what about all that transparency that he was supposed to bring?!” You’ve got a new fan, bro!!”
Trump says and does a lot of things that piss me off, but Justin really gets my blood boiling. – Ryan L

————————————————-

You and others

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ah1WGYv3yhs

“Pick your parents carefully”

#67 Media sceptic on 10.10.20 at 6:39 pm

Watched a you tube video of the Biden juggernaut in Las Vegas. Yip a massive crowd of cheering supporters of 6 people. The crowd was out numbered by Biden support staff.
You look at the crowds Trump pulls in, thousands. And we’re supposed to believe the same pollsters that falsely predicted the 2016 win by HRC.
Right!!!

#68 Drinking on 10.10.20 at 6:42 pm

Thanks for your insight Ryan but we are in a very perculus situation. For me, I could care less about American politics but at the same time I am not naive.

Trumps win= riots
Biden win = riots

Us Canucks need to look after one another; we are not like them, yes, writing from Alberta, Canadian proud! Although I do have a few issues with Ottawa parliament!

#69 Nonplused on 10.10.20 at 6:48 pm

“There are three kinds of lies; lies, damn lies, and statistics.”

I even have a little book somewhere called “How to lie with statistics”.

I saw an analysis that basically predicted the election will come down to 4 swing states that are as of now neck and neck. I think the only thing clear at this point is that Biden will win the popular vote, but the electoral college is specifically designed to give more votes to the states than they would get based on population alone. This was specifically done to prevent a “tyranny of the majority”. It is the same reason the senate does not reflect population, only the house does. It was to prevent the populous states on the eastern seaboard from overwhelming the smaller states. Of course now it is both seaboards with the red states primarily located in “flyover land”.

This election is important for more than just economic reasons. If Biden wins, I believe the democrats will move to pack the supreme court and eliminate the electoral college. If that happens the US will cease to be a republic and become a simple democracy. They could even attempt to pack the senate by admitting Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico as states. If that happens, combined with demographics, the US will effectively become a single party state as the republicans will never have power again. The “checks and balances” designed into the US constitution will effectively be gone.

This is all highly speculative of course but the talk is out there. So this election is about much more than just economics. It is about the very nature of the republic going forward.

In any case these issues are probably coming up eventually anyway. Demographics seems to be in the democrats favor over the long term and Trump can only have 4 more years. Will Pence be able to win in 2024? Of the 4 (Trump/Pence/Biden/Harris) Pence is definitely my favorite, if you could call it that (the least painful choice). But even if Pence were to be able to serve 8 years to 2032, by that time demographics will strongly favor the dems.

And I don’t believe markets have it right that Biden vs. Trump is basically a push when it comes to the economy. Biden may have been a centrist his whole career but that is not the direction the rest of his party is going. Short term it may not make much difference but longer term a Harris presidency will try to remake the US in the same way Trudeau is trying to remake Canada. Socialism is the key word here, and socialist countries always fail once their oil export revenues dry up. That is what sunk the Soviet Union. At $10 a barrel they could no longer hide the lack of productivity within their economy.

Time to head for Galt’s Gulch if you can.

#70 Bill on 10.10.20 at 6:58 pm

DELETED

#71 Drinking on 10.10.20 at 7:00 pm

#14 Flop…

Only because the Jackass (Bush junior) was looking for war! All hell broke loose in the world when he took power; I am not a Democrat or Republican for the fact that I am Canadian and could care less about American politics but when he decided (ok, some may say for stability) to invade Irac for make belief strategic world dominating weapons which were never found I just shake my head.. Look how much the world has changed since then!!!! This whole thing since “The Big Short” just stinks!! People are catching on!

#72 Drill Baby Drill on 10.10.20 at 7:03 pm

Do not count Trump out. The polls just don’t seem to reflect the true voter sentiment with this guy.

#73 Nonplused on 10.10.20 at 7:08 pm

#22 Brian Ripley on 10.10.20 at 12:08 pm

Skimmed through your malignant narcissist post. The thing that bothers me about these sorts of things is how we are all suddenly psychology professors. Not saying you are right or wrong, don`t know. Trump probably is a narcissist. But then so are a lot of people probably including Biden.

#74 baloney Sandwitch on 10.10.20 at 7:10 pm

Predictit odds has broken 67/39 in Biden’s favour. These are punters gambling real money.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

#75 mark on 10.10.20 at 7:36 pm

Ryan,
Wondering if you can tell us how we can figure out the maximum drawdown on our portfolio, based on etf’ asset allocation?
Most sites don’t have all asset groups like reits, preferred’s etc. Thanks in Advance.

#76 Rowdie on 10.10.20 at 7:47 pm

I would not trust any news, or media from Canada. And, by the way we live in Canada not the USA. It is their fight, not ours, we have enough problems from our dictator and we are swimming in debt! Cross you fingers we do not have the NDP running the country in our election.

Whichever way it goes in the USA, it will affect Canada.

#77 Bill on 10.10.20 at 8:02 pm

#72 Nonplused on 10.10.20 at 7:08 pm
—–‘——”””’
I know Brian
A great guy indeed…but should curb his Trump oppinions.
Hes the best of the worst in my view…that Yrump
Bidens a complete tool. The empire is dead we are next. All die in time. When guys like T2 float to the surface head for the bunker.
Nothing stays the same.

#78 Nonplused on 10.10.20 at 8:08 pm

#73 baloney Sandwitch on 10.10.20 at 7:10 pm
Predictit odds has broken 67/39 in Biden’s favour. These are punters gambling real money.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

————————–

They probably all know how to win at VLTs too. Or Sports Select. Why work if you can predict the future or beat the “system”?

Nobody knows who is going to win Texas Hold’em until the last card gets flipped over.

All that is happening on Predictit is that those folks are seeing a barrage of messaging from the MSM saying Trump can’t even beat a cardboard cutout. But if you know anything about gambling, you know the house is the only one who wins consistently. Own the casino, don’t gamble therein.

#79 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 10.10.20 at 8:12 pm

“Trump says and does a lot of things that piss me off, but Justin really gets my blood boiling.”

I’ve been following Canadian politics less and less over the years. Used to be be a junkie — able to name nine or ten premiers, and all the major federal cabinet ministers; not anymore.

Canadian politics doesn’t matter much, unless you’re a small province with a ruinous hydro project… And tax policies for non-labour income will change a lot less than partisans claim. Most of what you need to know about Canadian economic performance you can figure out by looking at a few other countries’ GDP, trade and currency numbers. Trudeau isn’t moving the price of oil, or the price of money.

I watch Trump because I have to. I don’t watch Trudeau because I don’t have to.

#80 More Fake News on 10.10.20 at 8:17 pm

I know this is off topic but seriously?

https://nypost.com/2020/09/23/this-bisexual-pastor-turned-stripper-has-never-been-happier/

I can’t even think up what the possible messaging they are trying to implant in our minds could be. “You’ll be happier as a stripper than a preacher”? Maybe.

But the one thing that popped immediately to mind is “36 year old stripper??? She’d have a much longer career as a preacher. She’s already hit the wall.”

#81 Nonplused on 10.10.20 at 8:27 pm

#46 Mathew S Gibson on 10.10.20 at 3:35 pm

“Trump isn’t trying to win a second term.”

I don’t necessarily disagree with you. But the Democrats aren’t exactly trying to win it either. It’s almost like Trump said “Ok, I built a bunch of wall, stopped illegal immigration, beat up on China, reworked NAFTA, and lowered taxes, mission complete I am out. But then the dems said “oh no you aren’t, here’s Joe as our candidate. Try and lose to him! It’s an 8 year term sucker!”

It’s like having a child. You can’t quit just because it isn’t fun anymore.

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.10.20 at 8:29 pm

#24 Canuck on 10.10.20 at 12:29 pm
Second, if Biden does win and we potentially see a “blue wave”, there could be a larger stimulus plan and potentially higher growth. Both Goldman Sachs and Moody’s predict higher GDP and job growth under Biden’s economic plans compared to Trump’s current policies.
_______________________________________________

Before COVID hit earlier this year, America had 3.5% unemployment and they think under Biden it will go lower??? Please… smh

BTW, other than raising taxes, what is Biden’s economic platform? I haven’t seen it.
————
Watching FOX you’re not gonna see it.

#83 KLNR on 10.10.20 at 8:32 pm

@#72 Nonplused on 10.10.20 at 7:08 pm
#22 Brian Ripley on 10.10.20 at 12:08 pm

Skimmed through your malignant narcissist post. The thing that bothers me about these sorts of things is how we are all suddenly psychology professors. Not saying you are right or wrong, don`t know. Trump probably is a narcissist. But then so are a lot of people probably including Biden.

trump is more megalomaniac than narcissist

#84 Nonplused on 10.10.20 at 8:33 pm

#67 Drinking on 10.10.20 at 6:42 pm
Thanks for your insight Ryan but we are in a very perculus situation. For me, I could care less about American politics but at the same time I am not naive.

Trumps win= riots
Biden win = riots

Us Canucks need to look after one another; we are not like them, yes, writing from Alberta, Canadian proud! Although I do have a few issues with Ottawa parliament!

————————

Very true. Canadians only riot when Vancouver loses in game 7.

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.10.20 at 8:33 pm

Watch Fareed Zakaria on CNN (I know) Sunday morning.

#86 Lead Paint on 10.10.20 at 8:37 pm

Thanks everyone. I am waiting in a Costco parking lot seemingly forever while my wife shops, your lunatic postings have been highly entertaining.

#87 Ryan Lewenza on 10.10.20 at 8:38 pm

The WOMBAT “In case the polls are correct and the Dems win in Nov., is this a good time to be purchasing US dollars? If the polls are wrong and we have President Donald T-rump for the next 4 years, is this a good time to be purchasing US dollars?”

I don’t believe presidents have a big impact on the US dollar. The Fed and interest rates play a much bigger role. I guess there are some presidents who believe in a stronger USD but we haven’t seen one of those in a while. Net/net I think the USD would do better under Biden as 1) he will likely implement a bigger stimulus plan possibly leading to higher inflation, and 2) Trump seems to generally prefer lower interest rates and USD. – Ryan L

#88 Ryan Lewenza on 10.10.20 at 8:45 pm

Ponzius Pilatus “Before COVID hit earlier this year, America had 3.5% unemployment and they think under Biden it will go lower??? Please… smh

BTW, other than raising taxes, what is Biden’s economic platform? I haven’t seen it.”

I agree Trump’s tax cut and deregulations contributed to job growth and the 3.5% unemployment but he also inherited a decent economy from Obama/Biden. Under Obama the unemployment rate dropped from 10% when he became president to 4.8% by the time he left. Under Trump it then went from 4.8% to 3.5%. In fact average job growth was higher under Obama then Trump. I love how people just focus on the final numbers and not everything that went before it. – Ryan L

#89 Eileen on 10.10.20 at 8:48 pm

Absolutely on point post. Refreshing to read. It was factual and laid out the potential pitfalls and how the stock market actually does better under a Democratic president.

If Trump loses by a little … he will create havoc and chaos as he normally does and try to tank the stock market and try to cause civil war to happen encouraging his “proud boys” to take to the streets with guns and protests.

Markets may get whacked. If you’re long… it may be buy in opportunity but if you’re in the market for short term only … it’s a volatile period for sure.

#90 Gravy Train on 10.10.20 at 9:00 pm

Completely off topic: Mars is the brightest object in the sky right now—three times brighter than Sirius, the brightest star. Look toward the eastern sky. Jupiter and Saturn are visible toward the southwest. Hope you have clear skies.

In a couple of days, look for Venus and Regulus about an hour before sunrise to the right of a crescent moon.

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.10.20 at 9:19 pm

#72 Nonplused on 10.10.20 at 7:08 pm
#22 Brian Ripley on 10.10.20 at 12:08 pm

Skimmed through your malignant narcissist post. The thing that bothers me about these sorts of things is how we are all suddenly psychology professors. Not saying you are right or wrong, don`t know. Trump probably is a narcissist. But then so are a lot of people probably including Biden.
——————-
Brian usually posts RE stats and does not get involved in the blog politics.
Therefore, when he pens such a strong comment, we know he cares about the subject.
I for one, fully agree with him.
And, Brian has posted here long before you came along.
So, show some respect Proud Boy.

#92 Dutchy on 10.10.20 at 9:43 pm

#55 Ryan Lewenza on 10.10.20 at 4:10 pm

Trump says and does a lot of things that piss me off, but Justin really gets my blood boiling. – Ryan L

Hope you manage to keep a cool head when making investment decisions on behalf of your clients.
T2 is at present still supported by the largest portion of Canadians.

#93 palebird on 10.10.20 at 10:37 pm

Every US citizen I know and/or have spoken with has nothing but praise for Trump. He gets things done. And that is something that is almost unheard of for a politician. But then he is not a “real” politician. And that is the best thing about Trump. He is not a career politician. The polls are as unreliable this time as they were last. Probably worse. They did not learn a thing.

#94 Elon Fanboy on 10.10.20 at 11:13 pm

Why is Biden campaigning in blue States when he’s ahead by double digits according to the MSN polls?

Think about that for a minute.

Maybe their internal polls are telling a very different story.

#95 ottawa_dude on 10.10.20 at 11:42 pm

I think the average comparison for market performance under republicans vs. democrats is skewed. If you look at the periods that republicans were in the office and historic events at that time, it’s clear that comparison does not reflect the true effects of economic policies. Great depression and WWII, as well as great financial crisis happened during republican presidency. In those years markets were significantly depressed by forces outside of POTUS control.

#96 Canuck on 10.11.20 at 12:21 am

Ponzius Pilatus on 10.10.20 at 8:33 pm

Watch Fareed Zakaria on CNN (I know) Sunday morning.
_______________________________________________

Isn’t that the guy who got nailed for plagiarism?

#97 Canuck on 10.11.20 at 12:32 am

I love how people just focus on the final numbers and not everything that went before it. – Ryan L
_______________________________________________

Fair enough. Obama had 8 years to bring that unemployment number down and went through 3 rounds of QE to accomplish that.
When Obama left the WH, the markets were 18k. After 10 months of a global pandemic, it’s still over 26k

#98 Damifino on 10.11.20 at 12:52 am

#92 Dutchy

T2 is at present still supported by the largest portion of Canadians.
—————————-

Not if you don’t include Jagmeet’s puppet wing in the Liberal calculation. That could evaporate at any time.

Besides, the Conservatives had the popular vote in the last election. They managed to accomplished that even with the uncharismatic Andrew Scheer at the helm. It doesn’t say much for Justin’s star power since Sunny Ways came to an abrupt end.

#99 dgb on 10.11.20 at 12:59 am

no t2 is not more popular anymore…that’s why he has the ndp to shore him up…he will be out soon because of his reckless spending which is ridiculous and most of us seee that he is only buying votes while putting the country in a very bad spot….

#100 Nonplused on 10.11.20 at 2:01 am

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.10.20 at 9:19 pm
#72 Nonplused on 10.10.20 at 7:08 pm
#22 Brian Ripley on 10.10.20 at 12:08 pm

Skimmed through your malignant narcissist post. The thing that bothers me about these sorts of things is how we are all suddenly psychology professors. Not saying you are right or wrong, don`t know. Trump probably is a narcissist. But then so are a lot of people probably including Biden.
——————-
Brian usually posts RE stats and does not get involved in the blog politics.
Therefore, when he pens such a strong comment, we know he cares about the subject.
I for one, fully agree with him.
And, Brian has posted here long before you came along.
So, show some respect Proud Boy.

———————————

Nope, he has not been commenting longer than me, nor nearly as verbosely. But I do like Brian’s chart book and refer to it at least monthly.

And don’t call me names as if you think that will result in anything other than a school yard fight that you will lose. I don’t really even know what the “Proud Boys” are other than they are American patriots. I am not one. How can you even conceive of the idea a Canadian could be a “Proud Boy”? Surely you do not have a good connection in your mind between words and reality. There is, so far as I know, no Canadian version of the “Proud Boys”, whatever they are.

#101 Nonplused on 10.11.20 at 2:08 am

#88 Ryan Lewenza on 10.10.20 at 8:45 pm
Ponzius Pilatus “Before COVID hit earlier this year, America had 3.5% unemployment and they think under Biden it will go lower??? Please… smh

BTW, other than raising taxes, what is Biden’s economic platform? I haven’t seen it.”

I agree Trump’s tax cut and deregulations contributed to job growth and the 3.5% unemployment but he also inherited a decent economy from Obama/Biden. Under Obama the unemployment rate dropped from 10% when he became president to 4.8% by the time he left. Under Trump it then went from 4.8% to 3.5%. In fact average job growth was higher under Obama then Trump. I love how people just focus on the final numbers and not everything that went before it. – Ryan L

————————————-

Ryan, no offense, but it is a lot harder to go from 10 to 5 than beat it down even lower. Just think about your golf handicap.

If I took the presidency Nov.3rd at 26% unemployment having great numbers in this area would be a shoe-in even if I did nothing. Actually nothing would be the best thing to do.

#102 belly rubs on 10.11.20 at 4:36 am

#16 KNOW IT ALL on 10.10.20 at 11:32 am
BUMP all that ELECTION NOISE and any other problems America has.

2 Rules to investing:

1) Have CASH available on-hand at all times.
2) BUY LOW, SELL HIGH.

It’s just that SIMPLE. This doesn’t need to be overworked.

….

Interesting. I have 3 rules for business which have served me well. Shall we compare:
1. Educate yourself; do the research
2. Remember you are dealing with people; people can be unpredictable
3. Buy low, sell high
This is applied in practice as: create a pitch; source investors; don’t waste time or money planning until you secure investment.

#103 belly rubs on 10.11.20 at 5:13 am

Just trying to gel thoughts…

Growth has propelled markets. Employment was high. Last September momentum slowed. The Baltic dry was slowing. Oil tanking, ha. Loans were made. Many CEOs jumped ship. In lieu of value, buybacks increased. Retail Investors jumped in. Buy the dip was the slogan. Markets turned to speculation. However, with pensions, funds, and derivatives based on growth, and perhaps bank collateral hanging aloft… more money (QE) was borrowed/invested. Shorts whacked. Yet, the Russell 2000 went flatish. Value stocks meandered. Classic consumption patterns were changing. Political and social issues were dragging populations into a malaise. No more 7% ROI. Select bubbles inflated on capital seeking a return. Diversify, ride the froth was popular strategy. RE gets used to park cash, financed with money coming from “growth”. Enter Covid. Markets detach from supply/demand principle, massive unemployment, public spending drain, and more cash injections (QE vaccine) from private bankers to prop markets. So now the markets are backstopping lending, corporate spending, dividends for pensions, RE loans, speculators, and buybacks. Interest rates now artificially reduced to prevent bankruptcy and create illusion of growth. Oh well, forget illusion, low interest is preventing bankruptcy.

Is that about right? Trying to keep up. Sources: fed employment chart, shipping data, this blog.

If I figured this, if/when that big trading index drops …there won’t be anymore loan money in Boonhollow no matter what the interest rate is. Everybody’s chasing return, then oops. Drys up. Corp closures, gov printing handouts. If I was to, I’d look into diversified value investments not growth, tax saving strategies, bulk buys. If bored, playing ratios on any opposing duets.

One note about that fed employment chart. It’s growth then a sudden drop off, growth then sudden drop off, and when employment hits max, boom, like a thief in the night, a sudden drop off. War, disease, systemic fraud, whatever. So I began detaching from growth last Sept as that employment chart hit historical max, rethought value trades like utils, health, honey. Another wildcard is goods transport as point of purchase shifts dramatically online, currently gangbusters.

One note about honey, my kid thinks it’s the ultimate galactic currency. Only found only on Earth, specialized manufacture, fractionable, indefinite storage. If we are invaded, he suggests grabbing all the honey you can and negotiate. Cheers. Just thoughts.

#104 Gravy Train on 10.11.20 at 9:32 am

#100 Nonplused on 10.11.20 at 2:01 am
“And don’t call me names as if you think that will result in anything other than a schoolyard fight that you will lose.” It doesn’t surprise me in the least that you’ve been in schoolyard fights!

“I don’t really even know what the Proud Boys are […]” “The Proud Boys are a far-right, neo-fascist and male-only organization that promotes and engages in political violence in the United States and Canada.” Get it now?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proud_Boys

“[…] other than they are American patriots.” Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel. — Samuel Johnson

“I am not one. How can you even conceive of the idea a Canadian could be a Proud Boy?” The founder of the neo-fascist political group Proud Boys is Gavin McInnes, “a Canadian writer and far-right political commentator known for promoting violence against political opponents.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavin_McInnes

“Surely you do not have a good connection in your mind between words and reality.” Ad hominem attack.

“There is, so far as I know, no Canadian version of the Proud Boys, whatever they are.” “So far as you know.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41116175

#105 Stone on 10.11.20 at 9:45 am

#80 More Fake News on 10.10.20 at 8:17 pm
I know this is off topic but seriously?

https://nypost.com/2020/09/23/this-bisexual-pastor-turned-stripper-has-never-been-happier/

I can’t even think up what the possible messaging they are trying to implant in our minds could be. “You’ll be happier as a stripper than a preacher”? Maybe.

But the one thing that popped immediately to mind is “36 year old stripper??? She’d have a much longer career as a preacher. She’s already hit the wall.”

———

Good for her. If she’s happy, all the power to her. At least she’s not living the lie most often others are.

#106 Penny Henny on 10.11.20 at 9:51 am

#88 Ryan Lewenza on 10.10.20 at 8:45 pm
Ponzius Pilatus “Before COVID hit earlier this year, America had 3.5% unemployment and they think under Biden it will go lower??? Please… smh

BTW, other than raising taxes, what is Biden’s economic platform? I haven’t seen it.”

I agree Trump’s tax cut and deregulations contributed to job growth and the 3.5% unemployment but he also inherited a decent economy from Obama/Biden. Under Obama the unemployment rate dropped from 10% when he became president to 4.8% by the time he left. Under Trump it then went from 4.8% to 3.5%. In fact average job growth was higher under Obama then Trump. I love how people just focus on the final numbers and not everything that went before it. – Ryan L
//////////////////////

With all due respect Ryan you did not answer the question (you would be a shoo in for politics).
Do you think the unemployment rate would drop below 3.5% with Biden in office?

#107 Manitoba Whale on 10.11.20 at 9:56 am

87 Ryan Lewenza on 10.10.20 at 8:38 pm
I don’t believe presidents have a big impact on the US dollar….
———————
A thought that I have been thinking lately, are we as Canadians who are not fans of the current federal Liberals better off with a Biden/Blue government?

Let’s be honest. Our media and our own eyes are focused on the USA and the Trump Show. No doubt the Liberals benefitted by having all the attention down south.

Is the Conservative route to a majority/minority easier with Biden over Trump? Is our economy better off with a Biden win leading to an earlier Trudeau collapse at the polls?

#108 david prokop on 10.11.20 at 9:58 am

There is a simple market indicator which has correctly prediced the outcome of presidential election 90% of the time. If the US market is up during the 3 month period before the election (so from Aug 3rd until Nov 3rd) the incumbent president/party wins and vice versa.
SP500 was around 3300 on Aug 3rd, now we are at almot 3500 which makes Trump re-election very likely, unless something bad happens to the market in the next 3 weeks.

https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1290107371746861056

#109 Ryan Lewenza on 10.11.20 at 10:01 am

Canuck “Fair enough. Obama had 8 years to bring that unemployment number down and went through 3 rounds of QE to accomplish that. When Obama left the WH, the markets were 18k. After 10 months of a global pandemic, it’s still over 26k”

You can’t look at the absolute level of the Dow since of course if you have any price growth it will be higher under Trump. So you need to focus on the compounded return under both presidents to put in percent terms. I just did this and during Obama’s 8 years the S&P 500 averaged 16.3% annually. Under Trump it averaged 14.1%. Even if I go back to his election date in early Nov (since the markets rallied from Nov to Jan before he officially became president) his CAGR is 15.9%. So the stock market performed better under Obama. This can’t be disputed. But as I mentioned in the blog post no president is responsible for all the gains/losses in the economy/stock market and luck does play a role. Obama was lucky to inherit the economy/stock market when he did. I don’t deny Trump has been good for the stock market, and if he wins I believe the stock market could rally. But my point is 1) the stock market has historically done well under a democrat and 2) Trump is good for the stock market but he’s not the second coming of Christ as some believe. – Ryan L

#110 Mr Canada on 10.11.20 at 10:04 am

Our obsession with Trump continues, as we Canadians give our current most unqualified and incompetent PM in history a pass because well, he isn’t like Trump. Hope is not a strategy come Nov 3. If Biden does win, why not outline some potential negative impacts to our major energy companies including pipelines? Biden has already said he will end Keystone if elected, $25 Trillion in debt & growing under his T2 like socialist agenda is just the beginning and don’t expect our cross border trade to be so rosy in a blue sweep.

#111 Ryan Lewenza on 10.11.20 at 10:13 am

ottawa_dude “I think the average comparison for market performance under republicans vs. democrats is skewed. If you look at the periods that republicans were in the office and historic events at that time, it’s clear that comparison does not reflect the true effects of economic policies. Great depression and WWII, as well as great financial crisis happened during republican presidency. In those years markets were significantly depressed by forces outside of POTUS control.”

I agree with this to a point. Absolutely factors like wars, great depressions, oil embargos play a huge roll in the economy and stock market. To help counter this I tried taking the data as far back as a I could (1900), to help average some of this stuff out (those things would happen under both dem and republican presidents). By using a larger data set I think you can make some generalities like I’ve done here. Look I’m not saying dems are always great for the stock market (look at Carter), but my key point is don’t listen to the naysayers that say the stock market is doomed with a Biden/democrat win. One key reason why I think a Biden win would be ok for the stock markets is he’s a steady hand. Trump’s a disruptor (which I support in some cases like China!) and with him comes bouts of uncertainty. Look at what just happened this week. He tweets that he ended all stimulus negotiations till after the election and the Dow losses 600 pts. Then the next day he says he’ll approve smaller deals before the election providing very mixed messages. On this reversal the stock market rallied. Given his unpredictable nature and from the gut approach he adds uncertainty to the economy/markets. – Ryan L

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.20 at 10:26 am

@#93 palebird
“Every US citizen I know and/or have spoken with has nothing but praise for Trump…
++++

Thats what happens when all your friends are republicans

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.20 at 10:28 am

@#102 belly rubs
“I have 3 rules for business which have served me well. ………… 3. Buy low, sell high”

++++++
The second commenter to refer to Tom Vu…
Bizarre.
Is he back on late night infomercials?

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.20 at 10:44 am

” Trump is good for the stock market but he’s not the second coming of Christ as some believe. – Ryan L”

++++

Unfortunately…Trump believes it.

#115 Dharma Bum on 10.11.20 at 11:08 am

“Trump says and does a lot of things that piss me off, but Justin really gets my blood boiling.” – Ryan L.
——————————————————————–

Justin Trudeau’s success in being elected, along with the support of his new Tik Tok dancing side-kick, is a reflection of what our country has become.

A bunch of needy, useless, grabbing, childlike, incompetent, unimaginative, unambitious, ignorant, lazy, lethargic, unmotivated, indolent, apathetic, pedestrian takers.

Canada is a welfare state and Trudeau is the handout king.

#116 Ace Goodheart on 10.11.20 at 11:19 am

Re: #7 TurnerNation on 10.10.20 at 10:18 am

If you really want to fight this “global shamdemic” or whatever it is people are calling it, look at the “emergency orders”.

Take Canada’s Federal Quarantine Act for example. The piece of legislation they are relying on to force heahtly people showing no symptoms to stay inside their homes completely isolated for 14 days (and get criminally charged if they do not).

There is no authority for this in the Federal Quarantine act.

Take the “home invasion” police tactics employed in Ontario, where police can forcibly invade a person’s home and demand verification that everyone who is found inside actually lives there.

Again, look at the legislation. No authority for this whatsoever.

When all of this comes out in the wash, the law suits against the government are going to be epic. The damage done to people’s lives, the bankruptcies, the business failures. Restrictions on travel that have no grounding in law.

Quarantining of healthy people, with no legal justification. No provision of any known law that allows you to quarantine a healthy person who does not have symptoms, and is not disclosing that they may have come in contact with a communicable disease.

My best advice to everyone right now is stay away from this stuff. Don’t be part of it. When the law suits start, if you took part in this ridiculousness in any way, you could end up getting sued too.

If you want to take away all of the rights of people who formerly lived in a rule of law, rights bearing society, then you had better take them away for good.

Because when it all comes out in the wash, and it is found that none of the “emergency” restrictions were based on any legal framework, or any scientific or medical reasoning, and were basically just populist fear mongering and nonsense, rights bearing individuals are going to sue.

And they are going to win. Don’t get caught in the cross fire.

#117 Happy Fake CDN THXGiving on 10.11.20 at 11:42 am

Canadian ex-pat

#118 Faron on 10.11.20 at 11:49 am

My thoughts w/re the performance of equity markets/the economy (the two things shouldn’t be conflated BTW) under Dem or Republican leadership.

I think it is incorrect to strongly attribute the economic performance of a given president to their policies especially after a first term. This is likely true for at least two reasons.

1) It takes a year or two for policies to even be enacted when a new president takes office. Those policies then have to “soak” into the economy enough to begin to be reflected as employment changes and changes in profitability. Any given economy is a product of policies enacted by multiple administrations over varying time scales. Sure, Trump helped lower unemployment through deregulation and corporate tax cuts, but the trend was well in place under Obama and his careful attention to widening the workforce participation and expanding the social safety net to the extent possible in the US. Those are slow acting levers on the economy that he knew wouldn’t come to fruition under his leadership.

2) Externalities happen. Some wars and social strife and random events are not to be ascribed to the sitting president (for the most part). Trump isn’t responsible for the economic damage of COVID in the short run. Bush wasn’t completely responsible for the immediate effects of 911. Obama wasn’t responsible for the effects of the financial crisis. However, if the impacts of these externalities linger, then the administration is responsible. Trumps bumbling of stimulus at the moment is a clear example that will haunt him.

3) Economies are global and to a certain extent one can envision the global leadership as poly-partisan. It is true that the largest economy leads (the US), but there are many more factors at play. Often, the global economy floats all boats regardless of leadership (unless you are North Korea and simply leave your citizens to starve).

4) The statistics probably don’t support it. You can’t say one party is better than the other by comparing means of annual performance unless you do a t-test on the data. I’m too lazy to transcribe Ryan’s numbers, but given the large variability under each party, I’m guessing the difference is too small to hand the win to the Dems. These kinds of statistics are sorely lacking in market analysis in my opinion which is why I disparage technical analysis unless I see it backed by statistics. It’s also why most managers don’t beat the market.

#119 ImGonnaBeSick on 10.11.20 at 11:54 am

#103 belly rubs on 10.11.20 at 5:13 am

One note about honey, my kid thinks it’s the ultimate galactic currency. Only found only on Earth, specialized manufacture, fractionable, indefinite storage. If we are invaded, he suggests grabbing all the honey you can and negotiate. Cheers. Just thoughts.

—-

And what are his thoughts on maple syrup?

#120 Faron on 10.11.20 at 12:12 pm

W/re 3.5% unemployment:

See previous post to start. As Ryan points out, Trump inherited a freight train of an economy carefully assembled by an administration with a wicked attention to detail and an understanding that small, slow acting changes may not help in the short run, but add up to wildfire growth in the longer term.

However, pushing the unemployment down to very low levels (what many argue is pretty close to the theoretical limit because you always “need” some unemployment to enable dynamism in the workforce) probably was Trump/Mnuchin. Of course there’s a big but(t).

Under a regulated capitalist market there is always opportunity for rapid, short term growth through deregulation. Crudely, regulation acts as a brake on the economy in exchange for improved conditions for the citizens and workers of the country in question. The Clean Air Act exists to improve the long term health of people living near emitting industries in the US. As regulations are put in place, the tacit agreement is that the long term benefit outweighs the economic drag. These regulations also help redistribute well-being down the economic ladder. In some ways, regulation can be seen as a very slow acting economic lever. In the long run, all are better off and we have a better accounting of externalities that will cause acute pain at a later date if the regulations aren’t in place.

The right works hard to undo regulation because they know that they will score huge points in the immediate term when the economy pops. They score further points because the right are the parties that continually work to enrich the richest in hopes that the boon will trickle down to the plebes. You can’t argue with that because it’s stated policy.

Trump has done just this and has clearly stated his intentions. Cut taxes, gut regulation and watch the economy boom. But wealth inequality has exploded under Trump pre-COVID and is just getting worse during COVID as we undergo the K-shaped recovery. Deregulation is fast acting policy, so it’s fair to pin the two together. Given more time, the situation will worsen as it has gradually since the 80s when Reagan first began to pull apart the many post-war regulations that allowed the middle class to grow and thrive for the three decades of the 50s to the 80s.

Obama worked hard to try to stitch that net back together and a few more terms of similar leadership would have led to improvement to the condition of the US middle class in the long term. In a sense, he gave Trump even more leverage to boom the economy for the short run.

Obviously, there’s a ton more to say on this. But, I’ll leave it there.

#121 Dutchy on 10.11.20 at 12:26 pm

#98 Damifino on 10.11.20 at 12:52 am

Have a look:

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

#122 Steerage on 10.11.20 at 12:31 pm

117 Happy Fake CDN THXGiving on 10.11.20 at 11:42 am
Canadian ex-pat

Well I’m thankful you’re an expat… so see you’re wrong!

#123 akashic record on 10.11.20 at 12:43 pm

Dr David Nabarro, the WHO’s Special Envoy on Covid-19, tells Andrew Neil: ‘We really do appeal to all world leaders: stop using lockdown as your primary control method’.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8oH7cBxgwE&feature=youtu.be&t=915

#124 Faron on 10.11.20 at 12:49 pm

#103 belly rubs on 10.11.20 at 5:13 am

I like that notion. Honey+toasted whole wheat=best thing out there.

Complicates matters, but you may want to have your kid expand their mind or hedge their bets on that honey thing. Not all organisms on earth are oxic. You may want to encourage a store of sulphur compounds as a start and then have them consider other potential energy sources in case aliens aren’t into carbs. Balanced and diversified, ya know?

#125 FDR on 10.11.20 at 12:52 pm

FDR was a Democrat, not a Republican, as shown in your table.

Was this just a typo or did your analysis mistakingly classify him as a Republican?

#126 Faron on 10.11.20 at 12:54 pm

#123 akashic record on 10.11.20 at 12:43 pm

Wait, I thought the WHO was a “sham”. Why should we listen to them now :-)? Or should we listen now, but stop funding them? Or maybe they are following a rapidly evolving understanding of the virus, have adhered to science all along, and are a credible institute benefiting the world as a whole? This is soo confusing. LoL.

#127 Drinking on 10.11.20 at 8:31 pm

#84 Nonplused

Yep, and you forgot to mention Montreal, different breeds I guess, but it could be worse, just take a peak down south!

#128 Nonplused on 10.12.20 at 1:39 am

#105 Stone on 10.11.20 at 9:45 am
#80 More Fake News on 10.10.20 at 8:17 pm
I know this is off topic but seriously?

https://nypost.com/2020/09/23/this-bisexual-pastor-turned-stripper-has-never-been-happier/

I can’t even think up what the possible messaging they are trying to implant in our minds could be. “You’ll be happier as a stripper than a preacher”? Maybe.

But the one thing that popped immediately to mind is “36 year old stripper??? She’d have a much longer career as a preacher. She’s already hit the wall.”

———

Good for her. If she’s happy, all the power to her. At least she’s not living the lie most often others are.

——————–

You don’t consider a life as a striper “living the lie”? Not my daughters if I have anything to say about it.