Can’t miss

DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
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Anyone remember Alexandre Daigle?

Daigle was a ‘sure thing’ future NHL offensive superstar when he was selected first overall by the Ottawa Senators at the 1993 NHL draft. He went on, of course, to become a spectacular bust, scoring only 129 goals in 616 NHL games with perhaps his most noteworthy career highlight occurring off the ice when he was thrown off a team flight for joking about an on-board bomb.

It’s easy to laugh at the Senators now and conclude that Daigle was an obvious poor selection, especially given that three of the remaining four picks rounding out the top five that year went on to become Hall of Famers. But the key word here is “obvious” and this is the mistake almost everyone makes, especially investors, when looking back at history. Most outcomes only seem obvious in hindsight.

  In 1993, there was nothing obvious about Daigle’s eventual failure. Daigle lit up the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, including scoring 137 points (with a league-leading 2.58 points per game) in his final full season. To put this in perspective, this year’s almost-certain #1 pick (the NHL draft goes next week) and the latest ‘sure thing’ prospect, Alexis Lafreniere, led the QMJHL this year with only 112 points (2.15 points per game). Daigle also played brilliantly amongst the best players in the world in his age group at the World Junior Championships, winning a gold medal the same year that he was drafted.

And, generally speaking, taking the most-hyped player in any draft year is a pretty safe bet. Consider the #1 draft picks from 2005 to 2015 (I exclude more recent #1s because they haven’t had enough time to prove themselves): the list includes eight probable Hall of Famers, including Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane and Connor McDavid. In other words, for many reasons, the Senators picking Daigle first overall was a reasonable decision.

But this is what’s at the core of hindsight bias: overlooking the sound rationale behind an ultimately mistaken decision and presuming that the better decision (in this case, selecting someone besides Daigle) was unambiguous. But looking back smugly after the fact and declaring that the eventual results were “obvious” can lead to poor and overconfident decisions in the future. Psychology Today sums up the cost of hindsight bias best:

You rewrite history, so to speak, and revise the probability in hindsight. Going forward, you use that new, higher probability to make future decisions. When, in fact, the probabilities haven’t changed at all. Hindsight bias can make you overconfident. Because you think you predicted past events, you’re inclined to think you can see future events coming. You bet too much on the outcome…and you make decisions, often poor ones, based on this faulty level of confidence.

Now, let’s bring this all back to investing. You might remember 2015? Seems like a simpler time compared to 2020, but if you recall it was a rough year for the Canadian equity market. The S&P/TSX Composite dropped more than 8% that year and significantly underperformed the S&P 500, which actually managed a modest gain. Starting in the spring of 2015, the TSX also had a short-lived, but still unpleasant, 15% correction.

A former client emailed me near the end of 2015 and stated that the correction in the S&P/TSX Composite “was pretty much announced” and that I should have easily anticipated it. I responded bluntly that corrections tend to be of short duration and we’ll never be able to dodge these pullbacks on a consistent basis. In short, I stated that we manage investments for the long term.

I also highlighted many of the sudden and unexpected events that caused the correction, including a slowdown in China growth, which took the WTI oil price down almost 40% in a span of only 52 days (and helped plunge Canada into a mild recession), confusing Fed interest-rate-policy guidance that roiled markets (recall that Janet Yellen was still learning the ropes back then) and two Bank of Canada rate cuts, the first of which not one analyst on the Street was forecasting. To make matters worse, this client was also arguing that I should have had most of his money in the S&P 500 at the start of the year—the index that, of course, performed better. In other words, he suggested that I should have put most of his eggs in one basket.

When you work in the investment industry long enough, you realize that nothing is “pretty much announced” and nothing is obvious. Commenters on this blog regularly imply that they’ve predicted past market shakeups long before they occurred, Covid-19 being a recent example. But, of course, no one (well, maybe Bill Gates) was predicting a global pandemic in 2019. A pandemic only seems foreseeable now because we’re currently living through one. But cue the hindsight bias: there’s suddenly no shortage of bold and confident predictions about what happens next with Covid-19.

More interesting still are all the investment firms that meet with me regularly to make sales pitches and claim that their firm saw the 2008-09 financial crisis coming and took steps to avoid it early. With all these correct predictions of the financial crisis it’s amazing that it occurred at all.

Investors need to recognize that forecasting is enormously complex and resist the urge to assume that what has already occurred was easily foreseen. It was not. And this is why every portfolio should be well diversified.

Now we’ll have to wait a year for the results, but through a simple exercise we can confirm not only the near impossibility of precise forecasting, but also help to diminish the ill effects of hindsight bias by relieving you of some of your investing overconfidence.

Okay, blog dogs, this is your challenge:

Let’s take three major indices: The STOXX Europe 600, the Nasdaq and the S&P/TSX Composite. For each, estimate their percentage gains over the next year. Secondly, rank them in order, best to worst. And finally, because these outcomes seem so “obvious”, assume that you will put all of your available funds into only the ONE index that you believe will do best. Write your forecasts into the comments like so (in whatever order you believe is correct):

1. Nasdaq: XX%
2. S&P/TSX Composite: XX%
3. STOXX Europe 600: XX%

You may feel confident at present with your forecasts; however, this confidence is unlikely to last.

A year from now it’s a virtual certainty that your percentage gain or loss estimates will be off wildly, it’ll be unlikely that you’ll have ranked all three indices correctly and also probable that you’ll have paid a price by concentrating your eggs in one basket. You may not even end up getting the overall direction of the three markets correct (e.g., the indices ended up declining when you were forecasting a gain).

But don’t take my word for it. We can all check back a year from now and see how you did. You can tell me then whether or not I was correct in my assertion that forecasting is incredibly difficult.

And, while we’re waiting out that year, let’s cheer for Alexis Lafreniere. I’ve seen him play–he’s an awesome talent. And I hope he has a better time of it in the NHL than Daigle did.

But if he ends up sucking, please, please don’t tell me that you knew it all along.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

109 comments ↓

#1 Prince Polo on 10.03.20 at 8:45 am

Doug – you didn’t mention whether you had any Alexandre Daigle hockey cards and their current “value”.

I admit my skills in rearview mirror investing are 20/20, and I’m a hindsight billionaire who frequently rubs elbows with Warren Buffett.

Ok – snap back to reality: reading a free blog and going 60/40.
1. Nasdaq: 15%
2. STOXX Europe 600: 10%
3. S&P/TSX Composite: 5%

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.03.20 at 9:00 am

For every highly touted prospect in Junior Hockey who makes it in the NHL, there are 10 who fizzle out.
Usually, the higher you move up in sports, the more the game gets mental.
Good example is Jake Virtanen of the Canucks.
His mental game never caught up with his skill and speed.
Human nature makes us focus on the successes rather than the failures.
Same holds true for the stock markets

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.03.20 at 9:00 am

1. Nasdaq -2% (Trump/Covid/ Recession)
2 S&P TSX -5% ( Trudeau/ Budget/ Taxes)
3 STOXX EU -15% (Brexit/ Boris/ Belarus)

Gee. Arent I a negative Nelly :)
2021 will be a gong show.

Guess I’ll put it in gold bars, under the beans and bullets….in the basement….

#4 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 10.03.20 at 9:02 am

Thank you, Doug, for proving yet again why

THE MAKE BELIEVES ROCK!!!

53 YEARS OF CONSISTENTLY PREDICTABLE PERFORMANCE!

NO FIRST ROUND PICKS AMOUNTING TO ANYTHING!

AS RELIABLE AN INDICATOR AS THE TORONTHOLE MURDER RATE!

MAKE BELIEVES!

BLOW JAYS!

WRAPPEDHORES!

ARGGGGHHHHOES!

Toronthole is for WINNERS!

Gamble EVERYTHING on that sh… er, city!

#5 Catalyst on 10.03.20 at 9:07 am

The main lesson here that Daigle can teach us is, never trust the french. I extend this to my investments as well (see SNC)

#6 Catalyst on 10.03.20 at 9:29 am

My forecast for 10.03.2021

1. S&P/TSX Composite: 12% (gold, oil, banks all have decent chance to outperform)

2. Nasdaq: 5% (some of the air comes out of faang and holds the market down. equal weight outperforms)

3. STOXX Europe 600: 2% (europe always underperforms because they believe corporations should pay more. I agree with this philosophy from a societal standpoint but my capital is free to go where it is treated best)

#7 Reality is stark on 10.03.20 at 9:39 am

Ever the optimist I have seen Covid 19 as a major catalyst for a rocketing market.
Unprecedented unemployment is a red herring. The Suncor announcements aren’t real and no one needed those $150,000 a year jobs anyway.
Stagflation is just a word and it will not affect you.
So go out and purchase that overpriced house since buying high always pays off.
Our government has decided that reducing costs is bothersome and unnecessary. Actually they want to pay their staff more as revenues decline precipitously. We elect them for their brilliant decision making.
Taxes will eventually need to increase IMMENSELY. A good government doesn’t let it’s citizens know the increases are coming in order to buoy the current economy.
Private wages will need to fall substantially in order to remain globally competitive. Our dollar needs to correct another 20% to reflect the reality of our oil industry, auto industry and lack of competitiveness generally.
It really is best to ignore reality and pretend that everything is fine.
But it gets better from the social perspective. Our courts have determined that you no longer need to live together to pay spousal support and child support to someone even when those kids are not your biological children.
A government that is broke needs money. They don’t want people on social assistance if they can raid your bank account.
The government wants you to go out and invest every nickel you have to save the place.
Can you blame them?

#8 Mr Happy on 10.03.20 at 9:42 am

Ok, I’ll bite. Below are my predictions which I believe you will find the most accurate:

1. Nasdaq: Not a $%#&ing clue%
2. S&P/TSX Composite: Not a ^%$#@#ing clue%
3. STOXX Europe 600: Not a &%$#@ing clue%

But that was the point…. yes? Cheers

#9 Econ101 on 10.03.20 at 10:02 am

“We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know — and those who don’t know they don’t know.”
— John Kenneth Galbraith (economist)

Great article, Doug.

#10 Millennial 1%er on 10.03.20 at 10:06 am

I don’t know about major indexes, but what I do know is that Magic the Gathering black lotuses are going to increase 30% in value over 2021

#11 garyw. on 10.03.20 at 10:07 am

1. Nasdaq: -33%
2. S&P/TSX Composite: -42%
3. STOXX Europe 600: -51%

Gonna be a bloodbath, sorry.

#12 KNOW IT ALL on 10.03.20 at 10:12 am

1. Nasdaq: -40 %
2. S&P/TSX Composite: -35 %
3. STOXX Europe 600: +11 %

#13 Paul Renhymen on 10.03.20 at 10:20 am

Forecasting is not complex when it it comes to interest rates. The interest rates game is rigged to keep going down, down, down and by design from central banksters. They are not capitalists but socialists for decades now maybe communists in coming years.

#14 Tarot Card on 10.03.20 at 10:46 am

Thank you for the blog Garth and
Thank you Doug for your post.

Predictions are indeed difficult. Even in tarot cards the prediction is based on today decisions, if you make a different decision a week from now for example take a right turn instead of a left turn the timeline changes and thus the prediction changes.

And to be honest Garth you have been predicting a housing meltdown since this blog began. And I am not being disrespectful as you had all the correct facts too much debt, interest rates would eventually correct. But it just did not happen. Maybe soon?

And to make predictions you base decisions on your belief what will happen. And not what should happen.

Oil prices in one year?
Interest rates in one year ?
How will people spend their money? Travel? House repairs toys?
Government Debt? Stimulus or drag on the economy.

Since the stock market is forward looking we need to determine what will the market think one year from now?
Corporate profits are rising? The economy is finally better than a year ago. Virus either has a cure or everyone is doing fast tests. I believe fast test will be the answer before a cure.

Now ask yourself this do you know anyone who got the flu?

So as they say never bet against America. For me it’s Canada.

See you Oct 3, 2021

S&P/ TSX up 10 to 12 percent
Based on oil will be higher and interest rates while still low banks will be higher.

Nasdaq up 8 to 10 percent, there will be a correction first and then a continued march higher.

STOXX Europe 600 maybe 5 to 8 percent, Europe is a wild card. And may surprise us all.

On a personal note, I am predicting travel, and I am betting my money that we will see a surge in travel a year from now.
So I am locking in the deals now! for example Mexico fall 2021, $5,000 luxury resort for $2,000. Been there and paid that, amazing deal free cancellation and full refund. What’s not to like? I am not alone deal was 98 percent sold out in two days.

In conclusion, it will be one interesting ride!

Thanks for asking for my input, have a great weekend.

#15 Love_The_Cottage on 10.03.20 at 10:59 am

“there’s suddenly no shortage of bold and confident predictions about what happens next with Covid-19.”

Including your boss who stated just yesterday “We know global growth will spurt as the pandemic fades. We surmise by the end of next year American employment levels will be back to those of late-2019.”

I’ll put money up against that prediction. Recoveries take time even if we get a vaccine in 2021.

#16 joblo on 10.03.20 at 11:02 am

TSX insignificant?
Makes sense, Kanada is a joke.

#17 Flop... on 10.03.20 at 11:12 am

Robax, I’ve got a junior hockey story for you.

In September 2002 I went to Nova Scotia for a month to visit some old friends.

Soon made new friends.

They said do you want to go to a hockey game?

I said no, but went anyway.

There was a kid playing in goal for the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles that seemed a little bit more polished than the rest of the kids.

It was Marc Andre Fleury.

He went number one pick to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2003 entry draft.

3 Stanley Cups, I guess he did o.k.

Till this day, this is the only junior hockey game I have ever attended.

The other part of your post, I won’t touch.

I am an investment hack, with little puddles of money in both hemispheres.

I will stay in the market, no matter what happens, as I know I haven’t accumulated anywhere near enough to stay on the sidelines…

M46BC

#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.03.20 at 11:18 am

@#11 & #12

My goodness.
And here I thought my predictions were depressing…

#19 Mean Gene on 10.03.20 at 11:20 am

Hindsight is easier than foresight, lol.

#20 MF on 10.03.20 at 11:32 am

A name I haven’t heard in years!

I remember his Upper Deck hockey “top prospect” card was highly prized among all the 8 year olds trading on porches at the time.

MF

#21 Alberta Ed on 10.03.20 at 11:38 am

Too hard. I’ll go with a B&D portfolio managed by smart people.

#22 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 10.03.20 at 11:40 am

Congratulations, you’ve just reinvented Warren Buffett’s coin flippers thought experiment. A year from now we’ll have twenty or thirty insufferable blog dogs whose virtual portfolios will have outperformed your real one.

They’ll be overconfident (maybe) in their abilities, and the underperformers will think “gee, if I only study/read/try harder, I could outperform, too.”

#23 baloney Sandwitch on 10.03.20 at 11:48 am

Predictions for 2021

Trump is out. A huge wave of relief and optimism sweeps the US. The vaccine is widely available. Parties everywhere. Young people do it like bunnies, resulting in a baby boom. real estate and stock prices go to the moon. Repub’s and con’s and other right wing fools are buried for a generation.

#24 Doug Rowat on 10.03.20 at 11:51 am

#10 Millennial 1%er on 10.03.20 at 10:06 am

I don’t know about major indexes, but what I do know is that Magic the Gathering black lotuses are going to increase 30% in value over 2021

—-

You know my view of alternative investments. Keep it modest, but ain’t nothing wrong with it. Free mana for your portfolio.

—Doug

#25 Sail Away on 10.03.20 at 11:59 am

Sure, I’ll play.

First, let’s ignore the ‘catch ’em up kids’ Canadian and European indexes. The US runs this ship.

Here’s the reasoning: US hosts the biggest, most innovative, most tech savvy companies on the planet. Nobody is displacing SpaceX, Starlink, Tesla anytime soon and the ten top US companies are household names. And the US economy is running.

Here’s a test: Quick, name a cutting-edge company with dominant market share in Europe or Canada. 3…2…1… time’s up. Now try the US.

So… 100% NASDAQ Oct 2019 to Oct 2020 for me

Gain/loss predictions:

NASDAQ: better than STOXX or TSX
STOXX: worse than NASDAQ
TSX: worse than NASDAQ; probably worse than NASCAR

#26 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.03.20 at 12:07 pm

#17 Flop
Must be weird being in Canada and not being interested in Hockey.
When I came, I missed soccer. Then the Whitecaps had a fantastic run, and I also became a Canuck fan.
Bure was the first McDavid. Took the family to quite a few games. Too expensive now.
As the game became more and more European, I became more and more engaged.
My favorite sport now. Skill, Speed. Awesome.
BTW, Fleury was sidelined by a young kid in this year’s playoffs.
That’s life.
Enjoy it while it lasts. And then treasure the memories.

#27 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.03.20 at 12:15 pm

#22 justdeleteitifyoudontlikeit on 10.03.20 at 11:40 am
Congratulations, you’ve just reinvented Warren Buffett’s coin flippers thought experiment. A year from now we’ll have twenty or thirty insufferable blog dogs whose virtual portfolios will have outperformed your real one.

They’ll be overconfident (maybe) in their abilities, and the underperformers will think “gee, if I only study/read/try harder, I could outperform, too.”
—————-
There will be many under performers, but I still have to find someone who will admit they lost in the stock market racket. Same goes for RE investors.
Must be a Macho thing. Never let them see you sweat.

#28 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.03.20 at 12:18 pm

Day trading can lead to addiction just like gambling.
Br careful.

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.03.20 at 12:34 pm

23 Baloney sandwich
“…..Repub’s and con’s and other right wing fools are buried for a generation.”

++++

and then you woke up from your dream……..

#30 Bobby Gogo on 10.03.20 at 12:39 pm

Insanity just hit a new level of crazy in Vancouver. $1.8 million for a “Vancouver Special” built in the 70’s shows Ottawa the path of pain is narrowing and hell is paved with temporary interest rates. Just imagine, just imagine, if rates tick up one percent any time over the next ten years. It’s disaster in the making.

https://vancouversun.com/homes/buying-selling/sold-bought-six-bids-for-spacious-east-vancouver-house

OK. 1) TSX is the big winner, as the obvious is staring you in the face. RE is officially unaffordable and stocks are the only game in town going forward. Dividend stocks dominate the TSX . TSX… One Year – 20%

2) QQQ – Goes sideways at sub 1O%

3) EU… A continued basketcase likely falls 20% on increased political uncertainty after mobs of refugees flood in on the back of a “shared responsibility” immigration disaster.

#31 SOMETHINGS UP! on 10.03.20 at 12:49 pm

PHEW…….. TRUMP done infected the whole White House!!

Down-played Mother Nature’s Fury.

She always wins, and if we do win it’s only because she let us.

#32 Yukon Elvis on 10.03.20 at 12:53 pm

Nasdaq +- 5%
Sp/Tsx. +- 5%
Stx/Euro. idk

Housing. + 5-10%
Int. Rates. Same

#33 El presidente on 10.03.20 at 1:11 pm

So why is trump’s physician an osteopath who was obviousily very evasive – on well everything

#34 Keith on 10.03.20 at 1:11 pm

On Michael Campbell’s Moneytalks show this morning, economic forecaster Martin Armstrong was still predicting a Trump win in November. His track record on these kinds of predictions has some impressive calls going back over thirty years. Food for thought.

#35 Looking up on 10.03.20 at 1:15 pm

Why isn’t the S&P in the bet?

That’s where my money is.

#36 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.03.20 at 1:15 pm

Europe aka. Germany has been written off so often in the past.
I’ll continue to be contrarian as it has served me well in the past.
Europe will outperform Amerika.
Take that Sailo.
Tesla is going into the lion’s den.

#37 mike from mtl on 10.03.20 at 1:19 pm

Investors should always do their due diligence even if advised.

Honestly, apart from Canadians nobody cares about the TSX, most news sites quote SP500,Dow,FTSE,Stoxx,Topix,ASE – rarely the TSX. Some banks, crappy energy corps and a bunch of junk all based on digging up stuff, importing goods and selling houses to each other.

Now that’s a bit of a sneaky comparison, yes the Nasdaq is sort of overvalued (what isn’t?) due to being FAANG heavy. I’d argue the SP500 has value under the surface. Since yes the SP500 has the top 5 basally supporting the entire index, the rest is basically the same as TSX 20-50% on sale.

Thing is all those FED bux flying around work their way into the sp500, here in Canukistan BoC bux fly into houses and made in china junk.

#38 technical analysis? on 10.03.20 at 1:19 pm

John Bogle’s Model of forecasting future stock returns predicts 0-3% stock returns for the next decade.

#39 crossbordershopper on 10.03.20 at 1:33 pm

Doug your question is wrong, you have linear thinking problems like most.
the goal is to make money under almost any market condition, you do this by hedging your position against unknown factors that no one can forcast.
you simply don’t buy a upstart hockey player and hope for the best because either the fundamentals look good, or the chart looks good or the general condition of the market is favourable.
you make your bets but hedge against unforeseen circumstances.
I have yet to meet investment people who buy puts, I do, I don’t like loosing money,like anyone, so that’s why we hedge.
I don’t care where market goes, as long as I make money and don’t loose money.
this blind buy and hope strategy is outdated.

#40 Bucky on 10.03.20 at 1:44 pm

1. Nasdaq: 10%
2. S&P/TSX Composite: 5%
3. STOXX Europe 600: 5%

#41 eirk on 10.03.20 at 1:51 pm

1. S&P/TSX Composite: 9%
2. Nasdaq: 5%
3. STOXX Europe 600: 4%

#42 Regjeg on 10.03.20 at 2:00 pm

What are we using as the end date for the period of “over the next year”?

Assuming it’s September 30, 2021:

1. S&P/TSX Comp -8%
2. STOXX Europe 600 -13%
3. Nasdaq -18%

#43 Faron on 10.03.20 at 2:11 pm

RE update for/from Victoria:

Same exuberance as seen in other markets — massive sales, YoY price increases etc. However… Prices ticked down by a hair MoM despite rising sales to listings ratios. I’m also seeing a fair number of houses with 30+ days on market with 5% then 10% price drops. I’m guessing people are desperate to capitalize on the hotness of the market while it lasts. Still no flood of listings though.

Total return or asset price Doug? Currency hedged or not? Assuming the former and not hedged:

NASDAQ will almost certainly take it given that many of the big names are global companies and actually grow at the expense of the other regions, but the risk ratios don’t do it for me given price:sales or price:earnings ratios being as large as they are. Also, WFH tech stands to correct once COVID fears drop. The US dollar currently shows signs of continued weakening inversely correlated with equities, and man, that’s a drag.

European banking seems to be a disaster and the EU seems to enjoy imposing austerity to control deficit — almost a certainty in coming years — and that a strong headwind in the short tun. Region is probably safe from a crash, but likely little growth aside from the higher dividends on average while the asset prices stand still. The Euro is taking over as the reserve currency and will probably strengthen relative to the CAD, so money spent now in the region will see exchange appreciation.

TSX looks good to me. Anchored by Canadian banks from which the BoC is offloading MBS, so their exposure to that risk is lessened. XEG is printing lows near the COVID bottom when oil futures were selling for $20 a bbl and that seems way over sold to me. Even modest gains in the energy sector will very strongly buoy the index. There is zero austerity in the picture coming from Ottawa and that is stimulative in the short run as all of that spending dumps into the economy. TSX dividend is a solid 3% so even treading water throws back some cash.

NASDAQ: +15% +- 25% QQQ Friday close: $274.31 USD
STOXX 600: +7% +-10% EXSA Friday close: 35.835 EUR
TSX: +10% +- 15% ZCN Friday close: $21.77 CAD
CAD/USD: 1.3300
CAD/EUR: 1.5579

#44 espressobob on 10.03.20 at 2:13 pm

I keep things simple, learned a long time ago market, sector and commodity timing is futile.

Own VXC which is a global all cap ex Canada ETF along with another which tracks the TSX comp. Not complicated.

As a contrarian profit is taken occasionally on the way up and am ready to back up the truck on the downside. This has proven profitable over the years.

Those with large portfolios who wish to explore should probably consider professional management.

Just one man’s opinion.

#45 SoggyShorts on 10.03.20 at 2:19 pm

1. NasdaqS&P500: +10%
2. STOXX Europe 600: 7%
3. S&P/TSX CompositeS&P/TSX60 : 4%
*********************
My reasoning:
♦The top 500 companies in the world* are, as a group, going to outperform other groups of companies. That’s why they are in the top 500. They are also either global companies increasing diversification, or they sell to the highest consumers. Most importantly these winners more than others will continue to rig the game by being too big to fail and lobbying to change/keep laws in their favor.

♦I don’t pay attention to Europe at all and it’s a total mixed bag of countries so it gets a random +7% based on moving past covid (whatever that entails)

♦ I don’t believe Canada has any pro-business policies but the banks and some energy will come back, hopefully offsetting that.

*Yes, there are companies from other countries who would be included in a global 500, but the Chinese ones I’d be terrified to invest in and the euro index moves in the same direction as the US so I don’t think I’m missing anything long-term. Also, as Sail Away points out, I can’t even name a Euro corp that dominates any industry, so there’s that.

At the time of this post
1. 3,348.44 −32.36 (0.96%)
2. 362.69 +0.89 (0.25%)
3. 16,199.25 +14.71 (0.091%)
4. USD:CAD 1.331

My PF
XIU 13%
HTB 17%
VOO/ZSP 70%

Rebalancing to put HTB back to 20% using my final retirement deposit in late October and after that only if HTB hits 25% or 15%

#46 Faron on 10.03.20 at 2:22 pm

SA sez: So… 100% NASDAQ Oct 2019 to Oct 2020 for me

Gain/loss predictions:

If you can’t “predict” the 3 Oct, 2019 to 3 Oct, 2020 performance of the NASDAQ, lord help you.

Ponzie:

I hate macho crap because it does the world zero favors. I’m still down about 8% from the ATH. To be clear, I am saying that I have lost money in the stonk market. I take full responsibility for that loss.

#47 Balmuto on 10.03.20 at 2:27 pm

1). TSX: -5%
2). STOXX: -15%
3). NASDAQ: -25%

Second wave means a second correction. Tech’s in a bubble and will get hit the hardest. As Canadian stocks haven’t exactly been bubbly, energy stocks have already been decimated, and I see gold continuing to rally, I think TSX will outperform.

#48 Faron on 10.03.20 at 2:31 pm

#35 Looking up on 10.03.20 at 1:15 pm

Why isn’t the S&P in the bet?

Because the S&P is effectively actively managed, see also the recent Tesla rejection. I would have preferred the Russel 1000 as a simple cap weighted index of the top 1000 US companies. No muss, no fuss. Regardless, any of those can be considered broad market representatives and thus sensible choices for a B+D portfolio.

#49 Fragrant Cookie on 10.03.20 at 2:41 pm

Thoroughly enjoyed your post today, Doug. And what a fun bonus activity to guess the future!

1. Nasdaq: +12%
2. S&P/TSX Composite: +8%
3. STOXX Europe 600: +2%

Please tally our predictions and do an update post for us in Oct 2021!

#50 mick Mclean on 10.03.20 at 2:47 pm

Some very solid players from that 1993 draft but I could only find one Hall of Famer, that being Chris Pronger who was drafted 2nd.

#51 Mark on 10.03.20 at 2:48 pm

Refund.

#52 Dolce Vita on 10.03.20 at 2:52 pm

WAG (no science):

1. Nasdaq: 14%
2. S&P/TSX Composite: 12%
3. STOXX Europe 600: 9%

Go Europa, go!

#53 Stone on 10.03.20 at 2:52 pm

I’m interested in cashflow. Not silly index predictions. That’s what rebalancing on a B&D is for.

#54 Joseph R. on 10.03.20 at 2:56 pm

#34 Keith on 10.03.20 at 1:11 pm
On Michael Campbell’s Moneytalks show this morning, economic forecaster Martin Armstrong was still predicting a Trump win in November. His track record on these kinds of predictions has some impressive calls going back over thirty years. Food for thought.

—————————————————-

From Wikipedia:

Martin Arthur Armstrong (born November 1, 1949) is an American self-taught economic forecaster and convicted felon who spent 11 years in jail for cheating investors out of $700 million and hiding $15 million in assets from regulators.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

Posters who repeat the words of a convicted felon as if they are worthy of considerations are trolls.

Food for thoughts.

#55 Farrapona on 10.03.20 at 3:11 pm

NASDAQ 8
TSX 4
Euro 3

Take it to the bank

#56 Flop... on 10.03.20 at 3:18 pm

Pilatus on 10.03.20 at 12:07 pm
#17 Flop
Must be weird being in Canada and not being interested in Hockey.

/////////////////////

Mr Ponz, I am liking the subtle nature of your trolling this week.

Not as much sledgehammer as your buddy Scurvy.

How did you manage to deduce that I don’t like hockey because I’ve only been to one junior hockey game?

Earlier in the week, I put up a visualization, if and that’s a big if , you take the tech stocks out of the U.S then they have comparable size companies in the remaining economic segments.

This was done to show that Europe is not a total economic wasteland.

You thought I was bashing Europe and complained.

Let’s get back to sport since it was Robax’s topic of the day, he might of mentioned the markets but it’s Saturday so I try and avoid it.

I am. Philadelphia Flyers fan, I enjoy their offensive style of play and now that they have a young stud goalie, they will hopefully enjoy a period of sustained success.

In recent visits to the U.S I went to a NBA game in Houston and witnessed James Harden put up something like 60 points.

Also when I visited New Orleans just before that I went to an NFL featuring the Saints and the Panthers.

I am probably one of the few guys on this blog that has actually been paid to play sport, albeit only a couple of hundred bucks a game a couple of decades ago.

I might seem like beer and lotto money now, probably could get 500 nowadays, but at the time I was in my early 20’s and used the money to buy gas and groceries.

This second stream of income from sport allowed me to focus my wage on paying off my small mortgage in around a two year time frame.

Was probably mortgage free by 23 but then got bitten by the travel bug…

M46BC

#57 Damifino on 10.03.20 at 3:36 pm

#14 Tarot Card

And to be honest Garth you have been predicting a housing meltdown since this blog began.
——————————–

Untrue.

You’ve misconstrued the blog’s essential message. Garth has always said that if you must have a house, and if you can afford a house, then buy a house.

The blog has always tried to clarify the real meaning of ‘afford’ as it relates to residential property and the possible negative consequences of excess financial risk.

In short, it has always sought to educate about the folly of a single, over-leveraged asset strategy.

#58 Penny Henny on 10.03.20 at 3:40 pm

#6 Catalyst on 10.03.20 at 9:29 am
My forecast for 10.03.2021

1. S&P/TSX Composite: 12% (gold, oil, banks all have decent chance to outperform)
//////////////

I like your thinking.

#59 David Sheffield on 10.03.20 at 4:28 pm

Just invest in the new gold:
Amazon
Apple
MSFT
FB
All will be up 20% in the next year.

#60 Doug Rowat on 10.03.20 at 4:54 pm

#39 crossbordershopper

Doug your question is wrong, you have linear thinking problems like most.
the goal is to make money under almost any market condition…
…you make your bets but hedge against unforeseen circumstances…
…I have yet to meet investment people who buy puts

—-

Technically, most short-term bonds make money under any market condition. This is where you can chime in and brag about the superior returns of your doesn’t-ever-lose-money-but-my-returns-are-also-completely-unverifiable options strategy.

And you’ve never (never?) met an investment person who buys puts? Such investors aren’t unicorns.

Do you also think you’re the only person in your neighbourhood using, say, high-speed Internet?

—Doug

#61 TRUMP IS OUR JESUS! on 10.03.20 at 5:02 pm

Trump is dying. Information is being withheld.

#62 Doug Rowat on 10.03.20 at 5:17 pm

#50 mick Mclean on 10.03.20 at 2:47 pm

Some very solid players from that 1993 draft but I could only find one Hall of Famer, that being Chris Pronger who was drafted 2nd.

—-

I stand corrected, but technically we’re both wrong. Kariya did round out the top five and joined Pronger in the Hall. I got my Niedermayers mixed up. Rob was definitely no Scott.

—Doug

#63 Stan Brooks on 10.03.20 at 5:19 pm

The only sector worth considering in TSX is the mining sector.

US stock market’s returns will be based on fed’s actions and the technology companies as well as the health sector.

Europe is traditionally underpriced but has much more self sustainable and solid economy with traditionally good returns. Canadians understand nothing from the EU markets as they are not exposed to it. Stick with what you know.

For me the choice has been exactly the above:

Long the mining sector of TSX, Europe and Dow. Long term. Short term I don’t really care, at all. Scheisse currencies will depreciate and the only way to preserve wealth will be in solid sectors and solid economies with solid inflation hedges.

Canada’s housing market and financial sector valuations are a lottery win at the moment as they are severely overpriced when compared to the underlying economy/or the lack of such.

Leverage of a leverage of a leverage that is not sustainable.

Cheers,

#64 tsirrus on 10.03.20 at 5:20 pm

For shits and giggles
1. Nasdaq: 19% (everyone thinks tech is done and out of steam. I’m a contrarian by blood)
2. STOXX Europe 600: 9% (I don’t recall Europe outperforming)
3. S&P/TSX Composite: 7% (oil dragging us down)

I hope I even remember writing this prediction in a year…

#65 VicPaul on 10.03.20 at 5:27 pm

DELETED

#66 SoggyShorts on 10.03.20 at 5:32 pm

#47 Balmuto on 10.03.20 at 2:27 pm
3). NASDAQ: -25%
Second wave means a second correction. Tech’s in a bubble and will get hit the hardest.
———————————-
#59 David Sheffield on 10.03.20 at 4:28 pm
Just invest in the new gold:
Amazon
Apple
MSFT
FB
All will be up 20% in the next year.

*******************************
Really interesting to see so many opposite predictions.
The great thing about it is some blog dog is actually going to be right.
As for you two, I don’t see why a second wave hurts tech more than anything else. I mean didn’t they do great during the first wave? I’m with Dave.

#67 Stan Brooks on 10.03.20 at 5:41 pm

Investing some more funds in the organic farm while collapsing some Canadian investments.

Living well and worry and debt free on 10 % of net income is fantastic. Even better is getting far away from the idiotic and greedy small-dick-provincial elite that rules this place.

Going to expensive restaurants at will has always been part of the lifestyle but the piece of mind earned with the move away from GTA is priceless.

Won’t return to GTA even if they pay me to. Life is too short. Too many idiots in that place. Lifestyle and weather not worth the sacrifice. Looking forward to the end of the virus for some extended European tour, also definitely doing the A1 in California.

Enjoy the winter and the quarantine, folks.

Cheers,

#68 conan on 10.03.20 at 6:02 pm

STOXX Europe 600: Negative 4
S&P/TSX Composite: Negative 7
Nasdaq: Negative 22

#69 conan on 10.03.20 at 6:10 pm

Is it Jan 2021 to Dec 31 2021?
Today till October 2021?

#70 the Jaguar on 10.03.20 at 6:25 pm

Oh dear. As soon as I saw the hockey reference I knew the fans of the game would feel compelled to ‘weigh in’.

Not my game, but if I had to pick an interesting player it would be Ovechkin. Because he’s a ‘bad ass Russian’ and makes no secret of his love for his country. Can’t see him ‘taking a knee’ for anybody but Mother Russia.

He’s a bit of a ‘throwback’, and so am I. Or maybe I’m the anti-christ. I forget which day of the week it is and what hat I am supposed to be wearing.

As for being an investment advisor, there is no in-between. You’re either a hero or a bum. Unless you have that ‘untouchable gem’ quality that Garth has cultivated. I’m guessing even Dorothy can’t stay mad at him for very long.

#71 Sail Away on 10.03.20 at 6:44 pm

#46 Faron on 10.03.20 at 2:22 pm

SA sez: So… 100% NASDAQ Oct 2019 to Oct 2020 for me

Gain/loss predictions:

If you can’t “predict” the 3 Oct, 2019 to 3 Oct, 2020 performance of the NASDAQ, lord help you.

—————

So… it looks like I already won. Big time.

Alright, alright: I’ll extend it for another year.

#72 SoggyShorts on 10.03.20 at 6:58 pm

#67 Stan Brooks on 10.03.20 at 5:41 pm

Living well and worry and debt free on 10 % of net income is fantastic.

***************************
This sounds a little bit… exaggerated?
I’m in touch with a lot of the FIRE community, and no one claims a 90% savings rate.

If I’m wrong, great! Please help us poor plebs learn though and share some details.

#73 tccontrarian on 10.03.20 at 7:05 pm

1. Nasdaq: XX%

I’m only going to predict this one, as it is the most obvious ‘bet’:

— By Oct.1 2021, MINUS 30% from recent highs.

tcc

#74 Jack Mackie on 10.03.20 at 7:09 pm

My prediction is a steady decline of good, responsible, prudent people and the rest are welfare, government paid losers will continue to grow as the socialism gets more and more into communism. This will bring more younger people dying sooner and depopulation continues fast.

In 20 years, you will see a lower overall total world population instead of it being higher. I’m glad I am an old person.

#75 Nonplused on 10.03.20 at 7:33 pm

I did my forecast using the RAND() function in Excel modified to give numbers between -18% and +32% for a “dartboard” forecast:

1. Nasdaq: 23%
2. S&P/TSX Composite: -2%
3. STOXX Europe 600: -13%

Of course you get a new forecast every time you press F9 so it could also be:

1. Nasdaq: 28%
2. S&P/TSX Composite: 17%
3. STOXX Europe 600: 2%

But it isn’t fair to keep pressing F9 until you get one you like or it isn’t random so we should use the first one.

The formula I used was =(0.64-RAND())/2. You can adjust whether the formula has an upward bias by making the 0.64 larger or smaller (0.64/2 puts an average 7% upward bias on the formula based on historical performance. For a balanced formula with an equal weighting to up and down you would use 0.5. You can also adjust the range but then the formula becomes more complicated because if you adjust the /2 then you also have to adjust the 0.64 so that you maintain the 7% upward bias.)

——————————-

More random predictions:

ACB will not be confirmed before the election because Pelosi has already announced that she is going to play the covid card (can’t really have hearings or vote if everyone is sick). And of course if Biden wins she will never be confirmed. Odds of a confirmation: Low.

The election is going to look exactly like the last one, with Biden winning the popular vote but Trump winning the electoral college. All that has changed in the last 4 years is that a bunch of old people died and a bunch of young people turned 18, which is in Biden’s favor for the popular vote but only in the states he was going to win anyway. (For those of you who think the electoral college should be abolished, understand it was a compromise to prevent the populous states on the eastern seaboard at that time from overwhelming the newly joined states. Those states, with the exception of the west coast states which have now become populous, are never going to agree to changes to the electoral college. Montana and Utah are more than well aware of what happens to Alberta and Saskatchewan every single time with a popular vote system.)

Nobody who voted for Trump last time is going to vote for Biden this time. Nobody who voted for Hillary last time is going to vote for Trump this time. And I don’t really believe the “undecideds” matter much. They probably don’t vote anyway, undecided as they are. So it’s going to come down to the 18-22 cohort who are voting for the first time. And for the most part they will vote as their parents did.

Back to predicting: If Trump wins there will be riots on a scale not previously imagined. And it is caused by social media. Them pesky algorithms are not designed to provide a “fair and balanced” view coming into your feed. They are designed to maximize the length of time you stay connected and thus the number of adds you see. Thus, if you watch a “flat earth society” video, what comes up in the recommendations? More flat earth videos. If you watch SciManDan debunking flat earth, what comes up? More SciManDan. And yes they watch what you type in the comments too. Express hatred for Trump? You’ll get all the Biden adds. These algorithms are what are driving society into 2 completely different versions of reality, all because they are trying to maximize profits and they now have the tools to show you what you already believe, to the extent that you see and hear nothing else. Thus, through the magic of AI, we have been split into 2 separate groups that cannot agree on anything, not even the facts. All the while Facebook and Google keep printing the money.

#76 Nonplused on 10.03.20 at 7:47 pm

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.03.20 at 9:00 am
For every highly touted prospect in Junior Hockey who makes it in the NHL, there are 10 who fizzle out.
Usually, the higher you move up in sports, the more the game gets mental.
Good example is Jake Virtanen of the Canucks.
His mental game never caught up with his skill and speed.
Human nature makes us focus on the successes rather than the failures.
Same holds true for the stock markets

—————————————

One out of every 10,000 kids who plays hockey plays even a single game in the NHL. Most of those who do play sit on the 4th line and don’t last a second season. Professional sports is the biggest scam going, mostly to keep the up to $100,000 per each of those 10,000 kids in equipment and renting ice.

I don’t know what the difference is between a Wayne Gretzky and a Alexandre Daigle. I think some of it is genetics. Some of it is game time. Some of it is effort. Some of it is being in the right place at the right time. Would Wayne be the best player today? Don’t know. One thing I know for sure is that having played hockey, there is a big difference in skill level between the best player on the team and the worst (me). But you can still knock your opponent off his feet if he’s getting cheeky. The game was designed by kids crashing into each other on ice because they can’t really stop or stear, and that is still how it is pretty much played.

#77 Nonplused on 10.03.20 at 8:01 pm

#61 TRUMP IS OUR JESUS! on 10.03.20 at 5:02 pm
Trump is dying. Information is being withheld.

———————————-

Oh cheese and crackers. How do you of all people know that? Did you see something on Facebook?

Conversations would go a lot better if people would learn to stop making stuff up. If he dies, we will be able to agree on the fact. Until then stop speculating.

#78 Flop... on 10.03.20 at 8:45 pm

Public announcement on this American Politics blog.

Saturday Night Live is back on tonight.

In the ads they showed Jim Carrey getting in to his Joe Biden attire, and Maya Rudolph getting ready to play Kamala Harris.

Who knows if they might pull a few punches and change a few intended jokes with the hospitalization of The President the last day or so?

They might just take the ring off the finger so it doesn’t sting as much…

M46BC

#79 WAKEUP on 10.03.20 at 8:47 pm

Nasdaq -36%
S&P/TSX comp -30%
Cock a doodle do

#80 Adam on 10.03.20 at 8:48 pm

NASDAQ +17%
Rates in the ditch, stimulus flowing, exceptional resilience, no antitrust appetite, where else would the money flow?

S&P/TSX +6%
Tech does all the heavy lifting.

Euro +4%
Kept aloft by good pandemic management, but no big winners.

#81 Rexx Rock on 10.03.20 at 9:17 pm

I feel sorry for Ontario and Quebec.The smart ones will leave for Mexico to escape the quarantine and a long cold winter.

#82 Paul on 10.03.20 at 9:17 pm

#76 Nonplused on 10.03.20 at 7:33 pm

More random predictions:

ACB will not be confirmed before the election because Pelosi has already announced that she is going to play the covid card (can’t really have hearings or vote if everyone is sick). And of course if Biden wins she will never be confirmed. Odds of a confirmation: Low.

___

I would take that bet. Regardless of the results of the election, she will be confirmed before January 20th.

____

The election is going to look exactly like the last one, with Biden winning the popular vote but Trump winning the electoral college. All that has changed in the last 4 years is that a bunch of old people died and a bunch of young people turned 18, which is in Biden’s favor for the popular vote but only in the states he was going to win anyway. (For those of you who think the electoral college should be abolished, understand it was a compromise to prevent the populous states on the eastern seaboard at that time from overwhelming the newly joined states. Those states, with the exception of the west coast states which have now become populous, are never going to agree to changes to the electoral college. Montana and Utah are more than well aware of what happens to Alberta and Saskatchewan every single time with a popular vote system.)

_____

He will lose the popular vote. That is easy money. Whether he wins the Electoral College will depend on how the battleground states go. I don’t like his chances. Few Montana and Utah voters are aware of the political grievances of Alberta and Saskatchewan as far as I am aware.

____

Nobody who voted for Trump last time is going to vote for Biden this time. Nobody who voted for Hillary last time is going to vote for Trump this time. And I don’t really believe the “undecideds” matter much. They probably don’t vote anyway, undecided as they are. So it’s going to come down to the 18-22 cohort who are voting for the first time. And for the most part they will vote as their parents did.

____

Some will. I voted for Trudeau. Once. The “undecideds” will determine the outcome in the battleground states.

_____

Back to predicting: If Trump wins there will be riots on a scale not previously imagined. And it is caused by social media. Them pesky algorithms are not designed to provide a “fair and balanced” view coming into your feed. They are designed to maximize the length of time you stay connected and thus the number of adds you see. Thus, if you watch a “flat earth society” video, what comes up in the recommendations? More flat earth videos. If you watch SciManDan debunking flat earth, what comes up? More SciManDan. And yes they watch what you type in the comments too. Express hatred for Trump? You’ll get all the Biden adds. These algorithms are what are driving society into 2 completely different versions of reality, all because they are trying to maximize profits and they now have the tools to show you what you already believe, to the extent that you see and hear nothing else. Thus, through the magic of AI, we have been split into 2 separate groups that cannot agree on anything, not even the facts. All the while Facebook and Google keep printing the money.

– I think the US will pull through (this time) without major social unrest after the election.

– Regarding, social media, yes that is all true, and personally, I have found my quality of life better without it.

I enjoy reading your posts Nonplussed.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.03.20 at 9:50 pm

Many years ago, in late December, reporters at the New York Post asked the floor traders at the New York Stock exchange how they predicted the next year would turn out in the markets….they wanted their fave picks…..

Then the reporters went back to their news office and had a local animal trainer who owned a chimp called Bobo ( apologies to Bonobos…who is not a chimp)…any way.
The reporters had Bobo the Chimp toss darts at a board with stocks pinned to it.
The result?
Bobo the Chimp out performed the floor traders year after year……..

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/

#84 RIP Donald J Trump on 10.03.20 at 10:04 pm

June 1946 – October 2020

He’ll be dead within days. My pick:

October 12

#85 Steve French on 10.03.20 at 10:07 pm

I have to say that this comments section has been pretty much all downhill since ole Smoking Man went off to the big Schlong Branch in the sky.

Where’s the wit, the intelligence, the incisive social commentary?

Smokey was a good blog dawg, and a good man.

He was one of us.

He was a man who loved scotch…and ciggies, and as a gambler he explored the tables from Casino Niagara, to Casino Rama…

He died, like so many young men of his generation, he died before his time. In your wisdom, Lord, you took him, as you took so many bright flowering young men at Khe Sanh, at Langdok, at Hill 364. These young men gave their lives. And so would Smokey. Smokey who loved being the Greater Fool.

And so, Dimitiros Mita Stojsin (The Man, The Myth, The Legend), in accordance with what we think your dying wishes might well have been, we commit your final mortal remains to the bosom of the muddy Humber River, which you loved so well.

Good night, sweet prince.

#86 The other Doug, in London on 10.03.20 at 10:13 pm

Years ago some smart person said that predictions are always difficult, but especially when they are of the future. So I won’t make any predictions about the Nasdaq, S&P/TSX Composite, or STOXX Europe 600. However I will make some other predictions.

More than once Garth has said once a tested, proven vaccine is found the markets will take off like a thermonuclear explosion. That makes sense to me, the only caveat is that when the word gets out that it will take time to get enough people vaccinated to get enough herd immunity to snuff the virus out, the markets will drop some then climb up again more slowly. When that first announcement is made it may be a good time to sell off some equities or a least sell some covered call options.

Anyone who’s been paying attention can see that pipelines, oil companies, and REITs are on sale now. When the virus is largely snuffed out there will be pent up demand for travel. When suddenly a lot of planes are in the air again, more road trips occur, and cruise ships are sailing again there could be temporary shortages of refined fuels and possibly even of crude oil. That will be the time to cash in some of the oil companies and pipelines. Similarly REITs will come back again.

To get from where we are now to what what I’ve mentioned above will take PATIENCE. As I said in a previous comment, park your ass in the comfy cozy chair, relax, and when out in public remember that all important social distancing and wearing masks indoors. Better days ahead.

#87 Stan Brooks on 10.03.20 at 10:57 pm

#72 SoggyShorts on 10.03.20 at 6:58 pm

Find a place with lower cost of living and lower taxes.
Preferably with much better weather and access to health care and other services. A place with real growth perspective.

Run your own business that is location independent.

Buy or build an organic farm.

Invest. You need passive income.

High standard is not measured by high taxes, insane small business and labour competition, high cost of living and eating crap, difficult access to services which is precisely the life in GTA for example, but exactly in the opposite.

The luxury of having a piece of mind to take a few years off from the rat race at will?

Cheers,

#88 North shore on 10.03.20 at 11:17 pm

1. Nasdaq: 12%
2. S&P/TSX Composite: 7%
3. STOXX Europe 600: 3%

#89 Ronaldo on 10.04.20 at 12:05 am

#84 RIP Donald J Trump on 10.03.20 at 10:04 pm
June 1946 – October 2020

He’ll be dead within days. My pick:

October 12
====================================
That’s pathetic. Why was this even posted?

#90 dogwhistle on 10.04.20 at 12:11 am

#25 Sail Away on 10.03.20 at 11:59 am

“Quick, name a cutting-edge company with dominant market share in Europe”

———————————————

You might not have heard in B.C of companies like:

HSBC

Barclays

EDF

Ericsson

Danone

PSA (owning soon FCA, Fiat Chrysler)

BNP Paribas

Airbus

Do stop embarrassing yourself and do acquire a passport.

#91 WISEGUY on 10.04.20 at 12:34 am

1. STOXX Europe 600: -8%
2. S&P/TSX Composite: -17%
3. Nasdaq: -20%

Don’t get your hopes up on a vaccine being widely distributed in late 2020…I work in this field.

When a vaccine gets FDA approval, the first people that will receive it will be your healthcare workers, immunocompromised, and elderly. I think the best case scenario would be for this vaccine to be in the USA in January or February, BEST CASE. If that happens, it will take months just to immunize those patients.

Remember that the technology used for all the leading vaccine candidates means that this vaccine needs to be transported at -80 Celsius temperatures. For the USA, think of the logistics alone of transporting 300 million doses X 2 across the country as this will be a 2 dose vaccine.

For the rest of population, an approved vaccine will not be available until late summer 2020 and then it will take probably 6 months to immunized everyone who is willing to take this vaccine.

This is the other problem. What percentage of the population will take this COVID vaccine. I’ll tell you the answer to this question….NOT ENOUGH to reach herd immunity, which means, this virus will be with us a lot longer than everyone thinks. It will certainly be with us well into 2022.

The economy is going to take a huge hit next year as everything the government has done to pay people not to work and subsidize business is only kicking the can down the road. We will feel the brunt of it all in 2021.

Scary times ahead for investors if you ask me. I hate to say it and Garth will ban me, but stick to cash!

#92 NSNG on 10.04.20 at 12:46 am

1. S&P/TSX Comp 5%
2. STOXX Europe 600 5%
3. Nasdaq 20%

Why? Because they broke the off button on the money printer.

#93 Nonplused on 10.04.20 at 1:16 am

#82 Paul on 10.03.20 at 9:17 pm

I enjoy reading your posts Nonplussed.

Your response was also civil, worthy of thought.

But it is Nonplused with only one “s” because I couldn’t get the proper spelling on some other platforms that do lock out handles to verified email accounts. Disqus, Zero Hedge, etc. That is me. On Greater Fool anybody can use any handle even if it was previously used by somebody else. We’ve had some well documented spoofing before. I haven’t been spoofed that I know of but I know other people have. Did smoking man really say all the crazy things he did? It is hard to tell. Instead it comes back to us to consider whether a new comment is consistent with the older comments.

Even though we all know Smoking Man has passed on (RIP you crazy), I could right now post as Smoking Man and the only reason Garth would delete it if he caught it is because he knows. There is no second identification like a password.

#94 Nonplused on 10.04.20 at 2:35 am

#84 RIP Donald J Trump on 10.03.20 at 10:04 pm
June 1946 – October 2020

He’ll be dead within days. My pick:

October 12

————————-

You suck in every way. Good luck with your driving accident tomorrow.

#95 Phylis on 10.04.20 at 7:52 am

#91 WISEGUY on 10.04.20 at 12:34 am They maybe you could shed some light on this? Why two parts for some vaccines? I can only guess that part one is more of a test to see if you have a reaction before you are given part two.

#96 Oracle of Ottawa on 10.04.20 at 8:26 am

Hope I’m not too late. But here goes…
Nasdaq 15% – the FANNG stocks will do well again with the second wave
Stoxx Europe 10% – they’re just starting to get their act together
S&P/TSX 5% – Oil prices will remain low well into 2021

#97 Sail Away on 10.04.20 at 9:27 am

#90 dogwhistle on 10.04.20 at 12:11 am
#25 Sail Away on 10.03.20 at 11:59 am

“Quick, name a cutting-edge company with dominant market share in Europe”

————–

You might not have heard in B.C of companies like:

HSBC

Barclays

EDF

Ericsson

Danone

PSA (owning soon FCA, Fiat Chrysler)

BNP Paribas

Airbus

Do stop embarrassing yourself and do acquire a passport.

————–

Sorry, not ringing a bell. Let me look them up on my Blackberry.

#98 Ashanti Moore on 10.04.20 at 9:55 am

DELETED

#99 Coastalzapper on 10.04.20 at 9:59 am

I will add another

S&P 500 +11%
Nasdaq +8%
S&P/TSX. +6%
STOXX. +4.5%

Back at the beginning of Covid I wrote the pack leader about playing golf with CERB collectors. The comment section was filled with people who couldn’t believe we were out of our houses playing golf with other humans. Curious how those people have managed to survive Covid so far.

Thanks for writing a balanced (sometimes waited too much towards housing) and diversified Blog.

#100 Stone on 10.04.20 at 10:13 am

#94 Nonplused on 10.04.20 at 2:35 am
#84 RIP Donald J Trump on 10.03.20 at 10:04 pm
June 1946 – October 2020

He’ll be dead within days. My pick:

October 12

————————-

You suck in every way. Good luck with your driving accident tomorrow.

———

Irony? You really are a sad fanboy.

#101 Stone on 10.04.20 at 10:18 am

#84 RIP Donald J Trump on 10.03.20 at 10:04 pm
June 1946 – October 2020

He’ll be dead within days. My pick:

October 12

———

November 3. Now that would be ironic.

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.04.20 at 11:00 am

@#101 Stone

November 3. Now that would be ironic.”

++++

Well if re-elected…..he would go down as the shortest serving President in history…….

President Pence……. how’s that for a Las Vegas bookies nightmare……

“It is what it is.”

#103 Dharma Bum on 10.04.20 at 11:09 am

Forget about growth.
Invest for a consistent income stream.
Cash for life.
Growth is a given, over time.
Year over year, in the short run, who cares?
The markets will all be higher in 10 years.
In the mean time, let your investments churn out the cash.
Live for free.

#104 Tommy on 10.04.20 at 11:15 am

I just read Steve French’s comment on Smoking Man and I had to chime in. I don’t like to speak ill of the dead, but Smoking Man had it coming. He really was an obnoxious and vile commenter and he was the poster child of baby boomer privilege. He never did anything noble in his life, at least according to his own drunken ramblings on this blog. There are loads of witty commenters who see through BS in this country. They just generally don’t come to this blog for fear that Garth will report us to the RCMP for discussing the tragedy of foreign ownership in Vancouver. Smoking Man had nothing on me but he just timed his birth right. Probably timed his death right too because this world is getting very difficult, especially for white men over 40.

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.04.20 at 11:34 am

#$104 Tommyboy
” He really was an obnoxious and vile commenter …”

+++++
Speaking ill of the dead….

Go take a long long look in the mirror…..

#106 dogwhistle on 10.04.20 at 2:08 pm

#97 Sail Away on 10.04.20 at 9:27 am

Sorry, not ringing a bell. Let me look them up on my
Blackberry.

———————————–

Even Chrysler?

You must be a Kremlin troll

#107 James on 10.04.20 at 3:53 pm

#104 Tommy

Hard to disagree with you. While we can all sincerely express our condolences to a family suffering a loss, this commenter was highly unoriginal, derivative and believed in nonsensical conspiracy theories as well as held too many obnoxiously bigoted points of view for many of us to even bother reading his diatribes.

That’s not to say I do not wish his family well in these times.

#108 Tom on 10.04.20 at 4:11 pm

Ryan,

I won’t bother with predictions. The problem with predicting returns is not that people can’t do it based on the available data, but that too many variables are constantly changing – this makes their forecasts’ stability measurable usually in just days, if not hours. But it doesn’t stop them from trying anyways..

#109 Sunny on 10.04.20 at 4:38 pm

1. Nasdaq +8% (Eggs in this basket)
2. S&P/TSX. +6%
3. S&P 500 +5%