Tell me why

Shortly, we’ll dissect Arnie. First, a few hungry little harbingers.

One. More evidence WFH is not a thing. Not an enduring one, anyway. Next Monday a third of Citi’s 17,500 New York employees will be at their desks on Wall Street. Bank of America managers are back on October 21st. JP Morgan began a staggered return last week. Odds are within six months most of NYC’s 350,000 finance workers will be ensconced in their ant farms, busy rebuilding the office culture, making boodles of bucks for their banker bosses.

In Canada? Well, we’re Canadians. Things take longer since we have to emote. But there’s no doubt the office towers will repopulate, that CIBC will want to move into its spanking new DT Toronto head office and the 30 km of underground commerce (where five thousand people work in stores, spas and eateries) will seed back to life.

Two. Unsold condos in Toronto are piling up faster than borrowed billions in Ottawa. Supply and demand have fallen out of whack. There are meaningful reasons for this. First, too many units are flooding MLS because of Covid fears (elevators), new completions, student and restaurant renters moving home into Mom’s basement, the silly ban on evictions and the collapse of tourism, travel and Airbnb. A mass of investors are dumping their condos, sick of negative cash flow. (As this pathetic blog told you already, this will be a temporary – and significant – buying opportunity if downtown ownership is your thing.)

But wait, demand’s also petering. It’s evident everywhere except in the media and lagging realtors stats. Look at this…

Three. September was a shocker in Vancouver, for example. Compared with August (the market peak) condo sales have fallen 51% while detached deals are off 46% from last month. Ditto for townhouse transactions – down by half.

A recent RBC report seems to have nailed it – all that pent-up virus demand from the spring, unleased in late summer, is done. It’s over. The greater fools blew their wads, borrowed massively, paid inflated prices, and are now done. The market’s momentum, the bank told us a few weeks ago, will dissipate in the autumn. No now it’s fall, and the bubble is leaking.

Badboy housing guru Dane Eitel says the same. “CERB is coming to its conclusion, the deferred mortgage program is ending, and evictions have returned, now let’s see where the market will head on its own volition. Hint, down she goes,” he says. Inventory is growing, and average detached prices will drop about two hundred thousand.

Well, it’s time for Arnie. How does all this fit into the desires of a Toronto renter dreaming of suburban dirt?

“Me and my wife are 31, and we just had our first child three months ago. We have a family income that’s upwards of 200K, and enough for a 10% down payment on a semi-detached in the suburbs.

“I’ve put off buying for about 18 months and I agree with all of your analysis, and I do believe Canadian economics and real estate are a ticking time bomb. However, the government seems intent to keep real estate prices high, even if it means they have to sink the entire country to do so. To hell with jobs, fiscal prudence, taxpayers, stocks, and everything else that’s productive, as long as homeowners can make a quick buck when they sell their houses.

“If I rent for another 3 years at $2500 a month, I’ll be $100,000 down the drain. I’m unable to believe that a house that costs $800,000 now will cost less than $650,000 in 3 years, as that’s the reduction that will be necessary for me to not make a purchase right now (I’m not building any equity on rent, but some equity will be built on ownership). Why exactly do you say that we still shouldn’t buy? Please let me know.”

First, Arnie, do what you want. Never use this blog as a reason or excuse for personal action. That’s just too convenient.

But we have to ask some questions. Like, why are you suddenly house horny, in the middle of pandemic, recession, economic uncertainty and real estate inflation? Is it because of FOMO, or the fact you have a baby? Not good enough. And with an income of $200,000, why do you and your wife have but $80,000 in liquid assets? Now with a baby and mat leave, won’t it be even harder to save and invest? Isn’t your greatest obligation the kid? If you can’t save much when renting at $2,500 a month, how can you build up an RESP, for example, when she’s not working and you take on the burden of a house? Have you thought this through, Arn, or was this note written at night by your hormones?

For example, do you know the cost of ownership? A semi selling for $800,000 in the burbs comes with $25,000 in land transfer tax (kiss that goodbye – ten months’ worth of rent) and closing costs. Mortgage payments, property tax, insurance and the lost gains on your down payment come to $4,290 a month – a 71% premium over rent. That’s almost $65,000 over three years, or closer to $75,000 if the monthly difference were invested in TFSAs and an RESP. This would double your liquid assets, while buying would reduce them to zero. All of your eggs would be in one place – half a house on some soulless cul-de-sac where it takes a lire of gas in the minivan to fetch a litre of milk from the distant superstore.

Have you thought of the risks, A? What if the virus gets worse, the economy stutters longer and you’re laid off? Or lose your job entirely? Perhaps your spouse will want another child, another 12 or 18 months of maternity leave on EI without salary. Maybe she will wish to stay home for a few years with the kids. What happens if interest rates rise modestly and your mortgage payments increase by half (or more) upon renewal? What about being called back to work in the city, facing a two-hour daily commute? And what do you do if the guy living in the other half of your house turns out to be Covid-positive? Or joins a gang of geriatric Harley riders that he invites over every weekend? Or smokes dope all day on the shared back deck? Or is merely a jerk?

The main question: should a couple with just eighty grand saved and a new family buy a $800,000 asset with $745,000 in revolving debt, putting all of their wealth in one asset with no reserves, contingency or backup? In a pandemic? How is that not gambling?

Sheesh, Arnie. You came, you read, you were prudent. Now stop thinking with your pants.

168 comments ↓

#1 Pogeyjet on 09.27.20 at 1:08 pm

Socks is sheltering in place in his basement today with his beloved jet printer spewing out fresh pogey for tomorrow. And did y’all know that pogey is Ukrainian for freeland.

Speaking of freeland (not her), the Nanaimo band just got given a whole whack more of it. In exchange they will no longer litigate over the log raft environmental hazard in the Nanaimo estuary. Lol. It’s either a hazard or it isn’t.

#2 Dogman01 on 09.27.20 at 1:15 pm

#109 not 1st on 09.27.20 at 10:35 am

The A2A Rail proposal will receive the “intruder’s welcome” by the Federal Liberal government as it goes against the agenda.
1. They do not want more ties between Western Canada and the USA
2. They want to destroy the O&G sector
3. They want Western Canada weak and beholden financially.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7361339/alberta-alaska-rail-trump-approval-a2a/

I hope I am wrong but I perceive it is about power and control and to hell with the prosperity of Canadians (especially non Liberal voting Western Canadians).
More and more people are perceiving this is what it is driving WEXIT talk.

#3 FreeBird on 09.27.20 at 1:16 pm

Early Sunday post. Thx. I think that dog smells steak!

Just saw this today. Not sure how viable or accurate but could get messy legally no?

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en_ca/article/ep435n/gig-economy-company-launches-uber-but-for-evicting-people

#4 Dogman01 on 09.27.20 at 1:17 pm

#93 Brenda Ovid on 09.27.20 at 1:21 am
Globalization is great at lowering your standard of living, which is why most Canadians are borrowing like crazy to maintain a standard of living which is no longer affordable with current wages.

——————————————————-
From 1994, describing the destruction of the standard of living in the West via Global Free Trade, adding an unlimited external source of labour outside of the current market to simply import into our established market, the parasite model of capitalism for the host society. Cui bono.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PQrz8F0dBI

Who benefits, just look at the massive wealth inequity trends over the last 30 years. (and decline of our of middle class society).

#5 KNOW IT ALL on 09.27.20 at 1:20 pm

The WEALTH of your un-emotional and un-biased advise is just staggering.

Although we hate to think of the thought we hope there is a successor you have chosen to guide us fools for decades to come.

#6 Millennial 1%er on 09.27.20 at 1:22 pm

Thanks for this article, Garth. A reminder to all of us to plan ahead and not be hasty. All fires burn out and give way to fertile ground to grow upon.

#7 John on 09.27.20 at 1:29 pm

Both kids and house are very expensive. An average kid will cost you over 1.6 million dollars over the lifetime. With inflation, it could be double. A house is much cheaper. Without a house and a kid, you could easily retire a few years earlier and travel the world. You could even move to a beach town with low cost of living and enjoy life.

#8 AGuyInVancouver on 09.27.20 at 1:33 pm

You forgot to mention two other things imploding condo sales: the disappearance of international students and a precipitous decline in immigration in 2020. Far be it from me to conclude two of the Liberals pet projects drive up housing costs for Canadians though…

Foreign students and new immigrants may rent condos. They don’t usually buy them. But keep that prejudice stoked. Looks good on you. – Garth

#9 Tripp on 09.27.20 at 1:47 pm

Garth, you are preaching to the wrong crowd. Most of them are either paralyzed by FOMO or elated by being millionaires on the paper.

The GoC and BoC should let the housing bubble pop, it’s been ripe for years. The indebted should be responsible for their debt, not the rest of us.

#10 Apocalypse2020 on 09.27.20 at 1:48 pm

40 Days to Global Catastrophe.

Do not buy any property unless it is rural with extra land and storage and at least 200km from major centres.

This will be huge.

PREPARE

#11 -=withwings=- on 09.27.20 at 1:50 pm

@ #2 dogman01

#109 not 1st on 09.27.20 at 10:35 am

The A2A Rail proposal will receive the “intruder’s welcome” by the Federal Liberal government as it goes against the agenda.
1. They do not want more ties between Western Canada and the USA
2. They want to destroy the O&G sector
3. They want Western Canada weak and beholden financially.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7361339/alberta-alaska-rail-trump-approval-a2a/

I hope I am wrong but I perceive it is about power and control and to hell with the prosperity of Canadians (especially non Liberal voting Western Canadians).
More and more people are perceiving this is what it is driving WEXIT talk.

=========
‘they’ aren’t that sophisticated. Funny how trudeau goes from incompetent junior sock man to the leader of a secret highly coordinated perfectly executed long running (generational!) conspiracy theory overnight. He’s either a genius with long term vision, or useless. Pick one and stick with it.

The reality is the ‘west’ is really Alberta and sorry to say no one else is really thinking about the 11% of Canada that is Alberta.

Also FYI: “they” don’t control the global price of oil.

#12 WTF on 09.27.20 at 1:53 pm

Well, I feel so much better after reading this unbiased observation, pumped by the RE industry and largest advert contributor to the local fish wrapper. Pathetic on so many levels.

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/op-ed/anne-mcmullin-housing-fundamentals-are-strong

#13 Flop... on 09.27.20 at 1:53 pm

Currently watching The Buffalo Bills play on t.v.

Scanning the advertising boards for the Turner Investments sign, after Garth spoke so lovingly about the city the other day…

M46BC

#14 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.27.20 at 1:56 pm

Hmmm, massive housing inventory and a looming economic slowdown….

With a Prime Minister hell bent on buying the next election with billions in cash give aways…..

What could possibly be the end result?

#15 TurnerNation on 09.27.20 at 2:14 pm

For years on here I’ve said that the high daycare costs served as de facto One Child Policy.
Here’s it comes officially. Remember there is NO news only predictive programming and here it is.
The world is run by Think tanks and NGOs and Foundations etc set up by the globalists.

Why don’t they go an destroy another culture, why always First World Countries? I’ll tell you. They told us that people overseas H8 our freedoms. As always flip their words 180 degrees, to make sense.
Now you know who really H8s our freedoms:

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/a-vancouver-bus-stop-ad-is-urging-parents-to-have-fewer-children-1.5120096

VANCOUVER — An ad at a downtown Vancouver bus stop is raising eyebrows, encouraging couples to restrict their family size to just one child in order to help curb the world’s population.

The U.S. group behind the ad calls itself World Population Balance, and it believes there are too many people on earth, leading to serious negative consequences for the planet.

“It’s really a sensitive subject. People are reluctant to talk about it. So I fully expect a range of reactions,” said Dave Gardner, executive director of World Population Balance.

#16 Flop... on 09.27.20 at 2:15 pm

Barbados wants out of the weakening Commonweatlh.

Australia has had rumblings of becoming a Republic ever since I can remember.

We had a referendum on the matter back in 1999 and voted no, if successful they would have been a Republic for 2 decades now, but the main thing I remember was the funky way the 2 key questions were framed.

I don’t recall voting, 1999 was perhaps ironically the year I left Australia to live in the U.K , short-term but never returned.

The most striking thing about that vote for me was the Yes/Leave vote was mainly in the urban cores and the rural, more independent types in my mind voted No.

I would have thought the opposite, but enough water has passed under the bridge for things to have changed.

CANZUK, the link between Canada,Australia and the U.K sounds o.k but I married a Fijian, so my version is CANZFUK.

Probably won’t catch on…

M46BC

#17 T-Rev on 09.27.20 at 2:16 pm

Blog dogs- I recall reading somewhere, either on GF or elsewhere, that CERB paid out $2.50 for every $1.00 in lost wages since the beginning of the pandemic. Was telling my Harley riding pals that over beers on our weekend ride and they called me on it. Can’t find where I read it now. Anyone else read this, and does anyone have a link to the source? I don’t want to lose the barroom debate.

#18 Andrewski on 09.27.20 at 2:18 pm

Arnie, heed Garth’s sage & free advice! And at the same time improve your financial literacy.

#19 NSNG on 09.27.20 at 2:23 pm

Are there any lawyers out there?

I’ve got a question.

And before the Karens get triggered, this is not a question about the mask debate or its morality, it is just a hypothetical question I have regarding corporate power and overreach.

Here in BC, we do not have a business mask mandate. The government has not ordered all citizens to wear masks in all businesses.

Both Walmart and the Loblaws group have made it mandatory for people to wear masks in their stores even though there is no mandatory mask mandate.

If you do not comply with their arbitrary rules, you will not be allowed into their stores.

Question. Can they be sued for discrimination?

#20 mj on 09.27.20 at 2:27 pm

if things aren’t getting better, and the government starts closing places again. The end of next month the bank of Canada will be speaking. They will have to use more tools, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they spend more backing mortgages to get rates even lower to keep up the housing market.

#21 TurnerNation on 09.27.20 at 2:29 pm

I suspect the winners in this will be the Public Sector Unions and maybe even Doctors
(whom I like). The Teachers unions are pretty much dictating childrens’ lives such that they can work little and get paid lots.

Not to slag doctors but who made these rules? Check out this Reddit post.
You go to a Walk in Clinic when you are SICK in order be be seen by a Doctor yes? Generally for bad flu like symptoms or cough/chest/breathing issues.

At this clinic if you are sick instead of being seen they telling you to Go home? What are the doctors doing, sitting around? I bet they bill the provincial health plan for that diagnosis. They did tell us on Day one of this global rollout, #Stayhome.

**As I said in March every system designed to protect us have been turned against us. Schools, Rental Tribunals, Courts, Medicine.** This is the brutal New System.

Reddit:
“Went to a walkin clinic recently. I had to fill out a “Covid form” which basically asked me the basics. Had I been out of the country, contacted someone who has been, etc the final question asked me to circle any of the symptoms I was feeling. If I had ANY of these, the form told me to immediately put on a mask, leave the building, and go home to self-isolate for 2 weeks.

These symptoms were:
Chills New/Worsening cough Shortness of breath
Sore Throat Difficulty swallowing Loss of taste/smell
Pink eye Headache Runny/Stuffy nose Nausea/Vomiting/diarrhea/abdominal pain
Muscle aches Unexplained fatigue
Falling more than usual

So if you have Pink Eye, and want to go get some help? PUT MASK ON AND LEAVE BUILDING IMMEDIATELY
Falling down more than usual? COVID, PUT MASK ON, LEAVE NOW Your head hurt? Better leave the place you came to for help.
Trouble breathing? Oh well, this is a walkin clinic, you can’t just walk in and expect help! Go home now!”

#22 TurnerNation on 09.27.20 at 2:35 pm

2nd wave of Bankruptcies is here. The global government is shutting down business. People cheer.
Last winter when you got sick where’s you get it from? Tell us, down the the metre and time of day?
The amazing science we have today! All that data…they won’t reveal. This is witchhunt, superstition.
Onto CERB you go! Two classes of people now.
Workers and CERBs

Condos anyone? To replace these closed locations? Why not.

Load link 2x and it will appear:

https://outline.com/EtHmnW

Toronto Public Health has ordered three restaurants on King Street West to close to protect the public from COVID-19. MARBL, King Taps and Casa Mezcal received orders on Friday night to close

Toronto Public Health (TPH) said a fourth establishment will also be forced to close once it is served with the order. It was not named in the release.

“These closure orders were undertaken based on Toronto Public Health investigations, including contact-tracing data, which has shown that each establishment has not taken the necessary steps to sufficiently protect both the public and employees from the spread of COVID-19,” the news release said.

#23 yvr_lurker on 09.27.20 at 2:36 pm

If I was Arnie I would wait for 2-3 years or so and try to save as much as possible, as I can’t imagine that house prices will inflate more when we are still going through all of the pandemic. Dealing with this will be long-term. Don’t hold your breath for a vaccine suddenly solving all of this.

However, no need to critical of 31 year olds only having 80K saved. Very likely with a 200K combined professional salary they had to get advanced training ringing up college debt to pay off in their 20s. The ones who are 31 years old with 500K saved (who you feature at times in your blog) are most surely the ones who started at 3rd base having inherited a bunch of $$ or other family-plan inter-generational transfers. No need to be critical of ones like Arnie who most likely started out with zero having to bunt their way to first base.

#24 TurnerNation on 09.27.20 at 2:41 pm

^ something for those laid off workers to do – after global government denied their capitalism:

https://streamable.com/ukai3k
Toronto Corona & Freedom Protest

#25 theoryAndPractice on 09.27.20 at 2:52 pm

This is the worst possible time to buy a house in this country , no matter what the current income or investments are. Why would you pay a prime for nothing. The idea should be to buy when houses are not loved anymore by the masses then go ahead and buy it. Same for financial assets.

#26 BillyBob on 09.27.20 at 2:58 pm

#11 -=withwings=- on 09.27.20 at 1:50 pm
@ #2 dogman01

#109 not 1st on 09.27.20 at 10:35 am

The A2A Rail proposal will receive the “intruder’s welcome” by the Federal Liberal government as it goes against the agenda.
1. They do not want more ties between Western Canada and the USA
2. They want to destroy the O&G sector
3. They want Western Canada weak and beholden financially.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7361339/alberta-alaska-rail-trump-approval-a2a/

I hope I am wrong but I perceive it is about power and control and to hell with the prosperity of Canadians (especially non Liberal voting Western Canadians).
More and more people are perceiving this is what it is driving WEXIT talk.

=========
‘they’ aren’t that sophisticated. Funny how trudeau goes from incompetent junior sock man to the leader of a secret highly coordinated perfectly executed long running (generational!) conspiracy theory overnight. He’s either a genius with long term vision, or useless. Pick one and stick with it.

The reality is the ‘west’ is really Alberta and sorry to say no one else is really thinking about the 11% of Canada that is Alberta.

Also FYI: “they” don’t control the global price of oil.

=================================================

It’s noted that you don’t make an attempt to actually directly refute the three very specific points made in the original post, which is sensible because they’re extremely accurate.

Ignorance and stupidity are just as deadly to success as wilful destruction. I do agree it can be hard to discern which camp this government falls into, but debating it is pointless when the end result is the same.

It also seems to escape you that the rest of Canada “not thinking of Alberta” is a driver of Wexit sentiment. Maybe it’s not the greatest idea to be so dismissive of the “11% of Canada” that has contributed so much more to the country’s wealth than the percentage of population would indicate? Unlike much of the rest of Canada, Albertans actually have a success gene and aren’t afraid to work or act on things. Even if a movement doesn’t achieve its ultimate stated goal it can exert much influence. Just ask the Bloc.

A neither an Albertan or Ontaronian, I’ve never quite understood the eagerness of “Central Canada” to alienate the Golden Goose of the country. Is it deliberate chauvinism or simple ignorance? Again, hard to tell. Quite happy to plunder the resource wealth for decades but then abandon/insult the source of it? Interesting strategy. Can’t quite see the value, myself.

But I’m sure selling houses to one another will work out just fine. So, yeah. Keep doing that.

#27 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.27.20 at 3:02 pm

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.27.20 at 12:20 pm
I heard of debit or credit card theft scam in the Lowerbrainland
Seems thieves will break into cars or homes and grab debit or Credit cards at night and then go to 24 hr retail stores/gas stations whatever and use the “tap” function to buy multiple “gift cards” for $50, $75 dollars.
90% of the time the cards are still ok to use because people dont know their cards have been stolen yet .

The gift cards are then considered as good as money and the stolen cards can be tossed without any risk of being caught.

Seems a store owner I have spoken to has reported this to the police to no avail……he has the same people coming into his store night after night buying “gift cards” using the “tap” function…… if the card is denied….no biggie, they just pull out another one to “tap”.
The theft is “under $100” so the cops cant be bothered.

Dont leave debit or credit cards in your vehicle.
————
Thanks for the heads up.
That’s no issue for Sailo, because he sleeps in his Tesla.

#28 Northshore guy on 09.27.20 at 3:09 pm

We went to a open house last week, on a week day. House was listed a bit below a million. I arrived early and saw the whole street packed with cars, everyone masked and queued up. I stayed for 2 hours and saw more than 50 groups go inside. And this was a week day!
I didn’t even bother to go to weekend open house.
The thing to note here is only one of them will get the house, rest 100s will keep showing up for anything under a million.
So my deduction is prices may fall for expensive houses but if you are targeting a million then there is too much competition if anything comes up at that price.
House under a million comes up only couple of times a year and flippers buy them and put it up for 1.5

#29 binky barnes on 09.27.20 at 3:11 pm

I slept like a baby last night (and I am no spring chicken).

Why? There can only be one answer: I know that King Justin (aka the Teflon Man) has both hands on the wheel, and that he is fully committed to Canadians. Nothing else matters to this man (er, I mean ‘person’) than the short and long term health of this country.

BB

#30 Stone on 09.27.20 at 3:13 pm

In Canada? Well, we’re Canadians. Things take longer since we have to emote.

———

If emoting allows us to avoid over 200,000 deaths versus our wonderful neighbour to the south, then emoting is a fantastic thing to be doing.

I hear from your last weekly call Ryan’s back in Scotia Tower 2 days a week. He must feel like a champion. You must be so proud.

#31 Stealth on 09.27.20 at 3:14 pm

Excellent post about “Arnie” and a really good lesson from Garth.

Lesson is: incorporate risk calculation in your decision making. This is similar to risk adjusted return calculation.

Where things look too good to be true, there is usually a risk premium hidden behind it. :)

Also, exactly the same calculation is done with kid #1,#2 ,#N, and even if you already own real estate.

Thanks Again.

#32 RE_Investor on 09.27.20 at 3:27 pm

If Arnie lives in Ontario and bought in the Erindale neighbourhood of Mississauga, close to the Erindale GO train station in early 2018 like I did, his semi house value would be up 37%. As a comparison, if I would have bought VBAL at $24.50 back then with the total amount of the house purchase, I would be up $60k, or 10%. Instead I collected total rents of $70k, or $45k after expenses. So net, its a $250k gain overall since 2018. The good thing about this location is the proximity to rapid transit. Only a 35 minute trip by GO train to downtown Toronto. Also such a nice area by the Credit Woodlands, great biking, hiking, and fishing. Also so close to the UofT Mississauga campus! I find this RE market in Erindale is still priced nicely for a young family. Also most homes there already have a finished basement apartment to help with the mortgage. Another plus, the Land Transfer TAX is half of what you would pay for a Toronto home.

Good Luck Arnie, but as Garth says, do what you want. Never use this blog as a reason or excuse for personal action. Just remember that in our financial times, all assets increase over the long term, so with your home purchase, you should be in for the long haul. You’ll be ok!

Nice brag. Hope you feel better about yourself. But irrelevant to this person. – Garth

#33 DON on 09.27.20 at 3:36 pm

I always always hated this term when it was thrown at me while growing up, partly cause it is true…”Wet behind the Ears”.

Arnie’s “I am unable to believe…” is based on recency thinking and no due diligence or reasearch.

Having kids is an eye opener…forget the expected milk runs, how about all the unexpected things that no one thinks about until they happen at the worst possible times. I love the utopia view of expecting couples or couples with newborns that sleep through the night. Nature has a way of balancing things out. I went into parent hood with eyes wide open and I still get constantly side swiped by the whirlwind around me. My only defense is to try to fill their minds with knowledge and logic to avert potential future mishaps from occuring.

Recency thinking with nasty black clouds on the economic horizon are a bad combination. But apparently not if you don’t know what you don’t know.

There is NO reason for Arnie to rush to buy a ticket on the Hindenburg even though ‘everyone else is doing it ‘.

At the moment there is no consensus on the state of affairs much less our immidiate or long term futures. We do know we are on the downward slide of a business cycle – smacked down by COVID. In my experience the mainstreet recovery takes a lot longer to come about. Have we even realized the bottom yet?

#34 Joseph R. on 09.27.20 at 3:40 pm

“Sheesh, Arnie. You came, you read, you were prudent. Now stop thinking with your pants.”

————————————————-
No need to even wear them here!
No shoes? No shirt? No pants? No problem!
You still get service here!

#35 Keith in Rio on 09.27.20 at 3:43 pm

Annie is not the one wearing the pants in the family.

#36 Freedom First on 09.27.20 at 3:43 pm

#26 BillyBob
#25 theoryAndPractice
#24 TurnerNation

Yes! I love your Posts!

Freedom First

#37 Stan Brooks on 09.27.20 at 3:50 pm

Monetary policy and quality of life/lifestyle are related:

https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

Just learned that friends/a couple/married for over 30 years, proud owners of 2 mil house in GTA recently got divorced.

I guess house does not buy you happiness.

Enjoy what is coming, sheeple.

Cheers,

#38 Sail Away on 09.27.20 at 3:57 pm

#27 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.27.20 at 3:02 pm
#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.27.20 at 12:20 pm

Re: credit/debit scams

————

Thanks for the heads up.

That’s no issue for Sailo, because he sleeps in his Tesla.

————

Correct, in most cases. I do have to be careful when leaving the Tesla to air the dogs on your front lawn, though, since the area is a little *ahem* seedy.

#39 Vanreal on 09.27.20 at 4:04 pm

Garth you forgot to mention that active listings are also way down in Vancouver. Detached are selling within 22 days for 99.8% of asking. Stats are from Zolo

GVREB says inventory up 6% August over July. Down 4% year/year. – Garth

#40 MaryEn on 09.27.20 at 4:05 pm

Garth, I highly appreciate (and share!) your opinion about RE market in Canada and stay on course to rent and invest. We are very satisfied with our choices.

But there is one mystery that we have challenge to figure out. Due to WFH , as a family of 3 who rent an app in Kitsilano (Vancouver), we are intensively looking for a bigger and nicer place to rent (probably townhouse). What we see around is a not a few empty townhouses and especially commercial units. They keep their prices despite the fact that they are empty for more then a year (commercials) or a few months (townhouses). When we sent them emails asking for a lower rent (for townhouse) they don’t even respond. The owners are usually agencies who’s core business is RE. So, NO money laundering or foreign investors here. The mystery is why these guys are sticking to high rent prices while losing their money? How can they afford it and what drives them to make such business decisions.

#41 MF on 09.27.20 at 4:12 pm

6 BillyBob on 09.27.20 at 2:58 pm

You are right. You are not from Alberta or Ontario so you can’t speak for any of us and have no idea what your talking about. Just some guy who failed in Canada chiming in.

I am from Ontario though, so I’ll tell you right now there is no attempt to “shut down” the oil and gas industry, no hatred of Alberta (the opposite actually-pride), and nothing else of the sort you mentioned.

The evidence bears this too. In 2013 Harper (the oil guy) won the GTA. The cons lost in 2016 because of Harper fatigue, and in 2019 because Scheer was a weak leader that didn’t resonate.

It’s that simple. The rest of what you wrote (Ontarians don’t work hard? Excuse me?) is drivel.

MF

#42 Not 1st on 09.27.20 at 4:13 pm

I don’t believe Arnie exists. This can’t be real. A real estate bubble accompanied by a pandemic and an overreaction by our govt coupled with a $500B deficit and you are looking at dumping your only free cash into an overpriced house.

Tell me this is a joke.

Correspondence reprinted here is 100% sadly authentic. – Garth

#43 MF on 09.27.20 at 4:14 pm

That’s 2011 election**

MF

#44 the Jaguar on 09.27.20 at 4:22 pm

@#26 BillyBob on 09.27.20 at 2:58 pm
#11 -=withwings=- on 09.27.20 at 1:50 pm
@ #2 dogman01

#109 not 1st on 09.27.20 at 10:35 am
_____________________________
My family first arrived in 1883. It was part of the Northwest Territories in those days. We became ‘Alberta’ in September of 1905. Fought hard and gained control of our crown land and resources in 1930. So we’re really kind of a ‘youngster’ in the whole scheme of things.
Not sure when the ‘resentment’ of Alberta began, but I always try to remind myself that this province has enjoyed great success due to the efforts of people from all over this country and other lands who came here and continue to arrive to build a better life for themselves and their families. Just ask the many Cape Bretoners, Newfoundlanders, those from the great exodus of 1970’s Quebec, or ring up Dharma Bum and ask him why his kid lives in Central Alberta. Turn over any rock and you’ll find a Saskatchewanite wearing a watermelon on his head while he cheers for the green team. Even the double-crossing, morally bankrupt from over the westerly mountain range come for the jobs. They make good carpenters as they grew up surrounded by all those damn forests. There are some good ones like Fishman.

There are always going to be those who talk about Alberta going somewhere. WEXIT or building a ‘firewall’, replacing the RCMP, taking up with the Yanks to the south. It ain’t ever going to happen. It’s just bluster and bull from the ‘brutes’, despite some of them having a few credentials. It would never have the support of the greater population.
I drove north to Calgary from the south country a few days ago and many of the farms and ranches proudly fly the flag of Alberta. Right beside it is a red and white one with a red maple leaf. Alberta will be staying put because we don’t raise quitters. We’re in a fight for sure. But it’s one for a return to economic prosperity and a bright future. Don’t count us out just yet.

People like BillyBob ‘get it’, and for this he is hereby deputized as an Albertan. I see him hanging out near Longview where there are a few cool airstrips.

Read the other day that there is a ‘hay’ shortage in Quebec. People wondering how to feed their horses, etc when the current supply runs out. Maybe time to saddle up the big rigs and help out a neighbour in need.

#45 NewWest on 09.27.20 at 4:22 pm

#21 TurnerNation on 09.27.20 at 2:29 pm

Reddit? Really, Reddit is one of your sources?

Sorry, you just lost what little credibility you had.

#46 Arnie is ... on 09.27.20 at 4:23 pm

hooped.

#47 SoggyShorts on 09.27.20 at 4:30 pm

#19 NSNG on 09.27.20 at 2:23 pm

Both Walmart and the Loblaws group have made it mandatory for people to wear masks in their stores even though there is no mandatory mask mandate.

If you do not comply with their arbitrary rules, you will not be allowed into their stores.

Question. Can they be sued for discrimination?
*************************
Nah, there’s a list of things that can’t be discriminated against, and having a dress code isn’t on it.

#48 Dolce Vita on 09.27.20 at 4:32 pm

The news from the Americans is good Garth (NYC finance workers) but you know it reads “tentatively” to me.

Garth they still have a lot of sick people in that country and a death rate that, if nothing else, is consistent (as in high though NYC so far doing much better last I checked), LOG, 7-Day Average:

https://i.imgur.com/aKcALJP.png

Eyeballing that chart, I say Europe converges with the US circa Day 350 or so unless the US comes down a bit and makes it Day 300.

Canada EMOTING to Day 500+.

———————-

That’s NYC Garth, selective for the US.

The rest of the US is not doing that well. Where there’s cases deaths follow (2 to 8 weeks later) LOG, 7-Day Average (Spain overwritten by France, Italia overwritten by Germany):

https://i.imgur.com/FhQCa5q.png

Here, Canada is not emoting that well at all.

Still, GOOD news ALWAYS BETTER than bad news (NYC).

#49 Papabear on 09.27.20 at 4:36 pm

Interesting article today, Garth, good points.

The “you only have 80k at 31?” bit was a bit upsetting, as someone else mentioned before – Not everyone can save six figures by 30. As a followup article this week, perhaps you can talk about prudent savings rates at different stages of ones life?

Thirty-one is halfway to retirement for most people. And 70% have no corporate pensions. – Garth

#50 WUL on 09.27.20 at 4:38 pm

A note of appreciation to you, Garth,

A red letter day in Fort Mac today. A round of golf in the waning days of the season. Some colour along the fairways including the gold of the Tamaracks. Laundry in the machine and a mid afternoon single malt.

Best of all, savouring your mellifluous and sound voice of reason.

A national treasure, Hon. G. Turner, M.P., P.C.

Thx,

WUL

#51 Joseph R. on 09.27.20 at 4:40 pm

#11 -=withwings=- on 09.27.20 at 1:50 pm
@ #2 dogman01

#109 not 1st on 09.27.20 at 10:35 am

The A2A Rail proposal will receive the “intruder’s welcome” by the Federal Liberal government as it goes against the agenda.
1. They do not want more ties between Western Canada and the USA
2. They want to destroy the O&G sector
3. They want Western Canada weak and beholden financially.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7361339/alberta-alaska-rail-trump-approval-a2a/

I hope I am wrong but I perceive it is about power and control and to hell with the prosperity of Canadians (especially non Liberal voting Western Canadians).
More and more people are perceiving this is what it is driving WEXIT talk.

=========
‘they’ aren’t that sophisticated. Funny how trudeau goes from incompetent junior sock man to the leader of a secret highly coordinated perfectly executed long running (generational!) conspiracy theory overnight. He’s either a genius with long term vision, or useless. Pick one and stick with it.

The reality is the ‘west’ is really Alberta and sorry to say no one else is really thinking about the 11% of Canada that is Alberta.

Also FYI: “they” don’t control the global price of oil.

—————————————————————–

The “Laurentian Elite” is conspiring against anyone born west of the First Meridian, that’s what the bought the Trans-Mountain Pipeline instead of leaving it to die at the hands of the Free Market.

They bought it, continue to built it so that they can cancel it before commissioning, of course.

You just need to repeat that a few times in your head and it will make sense!

You will be able to “feel” to new agenda, right inside of you!

#52 DON on 09.27.20 at 4:44 pm

@#26BilliBob

Unlike much of the rest of Canada, Albertans actually have a success gene and aren’t afraid to work or act on things. Even if a movement doesn’t achieve its ultimate stated goal it can exert much influence

*************

Umm from my experience there are hard working successful people in all of the Provinces and Territories of Canada. How about the logger, fisherman, doctors, nurses engineers and all the front line workers providind society with goods and services etc etc etc.

Downturns are a part of life…Alberta will rejuvinate in time.

#53 Asterix1 on 09.27.20 at 4:49 pm

Also important to note, is that too many “unfit” condos are flooding the market in Toronto.

Very Small units, bad/cheap construction, terrible layouts, subpar amenities etc…

Those will older units (bigger sizes) should be fine selling them. On the waterfront, even better.

#54 DON on 09.27.20 at 4:51 pm

If you do not comply with their arbitrary rules, you will not be allowed into their stores.

Question. Can they be sued for discrimination

************((***(

‘No Shirt no Shoes no Service’

Their business their ruled…you can always take your business elsewhere.

#55 Flop... on 09.27.20 at 4:55 pm

#40 MaryEn on 09.27.20 at 4:05 pm

Due to WFH , as a family of 3 who rent an app in Kitsilano (Vancouver), we are intensively looking for a bigger and nicer place to rent (probably townhouse).

////////////////////

Hey Mary, what is your budget and preferred areas?

I am just about to wrap up a major renovation on a unit in a complex mixed with condos and Townhomes in the Arbutus area.

The owner is moving into my unit next week but I looked online to see what the go was in that complex and there were other options with a big park and new Safeway nearby.

Not to much riff-raff there, except for a shonky Taswegian doing a renovation.

Been trying to keep the noise down, so I don’t wake up all the people on CERB…

M46BC

#56 The TRUMP Pandemic/Depression on 09.27.20 at 5:05 pm

“Isn’t your greatest obligation the kid?” Almost yes,,, maybe the whole family is the greatest obligation to parents,,, and so is a house for afamily… and the house or its equity will be the child’s inheritance…

Houses cost a lot and if family finances are tight, buying real estate means less for the child’s education. Besides, why would a kid care if you rented or owned a home? As for ‘inheritance’ people move every eight years on average. – Garth

#57 WUL on 09.27.20 at 5:05 pm

#19 NSNG on 09.27.20 at 2:23 pm

Are there any lawyers out there?

$$$$$$

Well, sorta. On short notice, I’m probably the best ya got.

more $$… more $$$… lots more later…
___________________

Both Walmart and the Loblaws group have made it mandatory for people to wear masks in their stores even though there is no mandatory mask mandate.

If you do not comply with their arbitrary rules, you will not be allowed into their stores.

Question. Can they be sued for discrimination?

property… property … property…
_________________________

Of course they can be sued. It costs $250 to file a lawsuit in the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta.

The stores are their property. They can make any rules they like. “Take your shoes off at the door!” “Don’t sit on the Louis Quatorze couch!” “Feet off the coffee table!”

And, more fundamentally, where’s the discrimination? Everyone receives the same treatment.

A gut cinch loser of a lawsuit after about 6 years duration, in my estimation.

You’re welcome. A modest Statement of Account to follow. Terms? 30 days.

#58 Pivo on 09.27.20 at 5:16 pm

Garth, to balance your WFH predictions, my Canadian employer (20,000 employees) is just wrapping up a remote / WFH policy that promotes WFH indefinitely.

The employer? – Garth

#59 zee on 09.27.20 at 5:19 pm

Hey Garth

Your Land tranfer tax amount seems incorrect for the Burbs, double check that again

As for Pent up demand( its silly to think that these are only people who could not buy during the lockdown).

That would not explain the strong sales and this Sept here GTA will be another record.

Pent up demand is really all those people who could not get a mortgages for all the right reasons over the last 2plus years are now getting their mortgage approved because Banks are approving in desperation for Revenue. Banks have lowered their lending standards and this is what is happening.

And This demand will not go away anytime soon!

#60 SoggyShorts on 09.27.20 at 5:21 pm

#49 Papabear on 09.27.20 at 4:36 pm
Interesting article today, Garth, good points.

The “you only have 80k at 31?” bit was a bit upsetting, as someone else mentioned before – Not everyone can save six figures by 30. As a followup article this week, perhaps you can talk about prudent savings rates at different stages of ones life?
***************************
200,000 income, say 145K after tax and 30K in rent
That leaves nearly $10,000 per month for other expenses.
A savings rate of $5,000 per month for this couple seems reasonable to me.

I think 50% after tax&rent might be about right for a lot of couples. It allowed us to reach retirement in 10 years even with a late start at 30.

#61 SoggyShorts on 09.27.20 at 5:30 pm

#57 SoggyShorts on 09.27.20 at 5:21 pm
#49 Papabear on 09.27.20 at 4:36 pm

Part 2:

As a rough breakdown, our after tax was
15% rent
15% vacations/trips/entertainment
20% food/houshold stuff
50% savings

#62 Joseph R. on 09.27.20 at 5:50 pm

#54 DON on 09.27.20 at 4:51 pm
If you do not comply with their arbitrary rules, you will not be allowed into their stores.

Question. Can they be sued for discrimination

————————————————————

No. Skin Colour, sex, age, height, are all characteristic that you cannot change, as such, it can’t be discriminated against, except if it can be justified in a free and democratic society (think: Alcohol and tobacco sales).

The choice of wearing a mask or not, is BEHAVIOUR, not a part of your identity, of who you are. Businesses can indeed, discriminate and force you out on account of BEHAVIOUR.

#63 Toronto_CA on 09.27.20 at 5:51 pm

Despite my handle I’m living in London, UK now.

The latest push to get the City (of London) back to offices just got thrown in the garbage with all the large employers reverting back to WFH orders indefinitely due to the recent UK covid increases.

Ontario may behave differently, but I would bet not. And while WFH may have been a passing fad after 6 weeks, and maybe even 6 months, we are now looking at a year before people are being asked to come back in at all, never mind full time.

That’s a permanent shift to WFH on a more or less full time basis with part time days in the office.

During a massive transit strike back in 2015 or so where all services got suspended for a week, there was a 5% shift to WFH that was permanent noted in London from that one week.

Couple the 1 year of working remotely + tons and tons of white collar professionals buying in far flung suburbs, and you’re going to have a self fulfilling prophecy as all these people find reasons to validate their purchases. And these are not low level, non-managers moving out far. These are senior management who make decisions and sway the C suite.

On top of that, what was found at my firm when people went in during the brief “phase 1.0” that is now off the table, if you go in but your team doesn’t (phased to let 15-20% in at once) – it kind of ruins the purpose of going in as you spend all day on video meetings anyway and don’t really have much face to face contact.

Let’s see what happens.

#64 Lawless on 09.27.20 at 5:57 pm

Agree with previous posters with respect to legal action – don’t waste your time. It’s a loser. And seriously – what’s the big deal? Put on a flipping mask or go elsewhere.

Also, as a number of others on here have said having no assets by thirty is pretty typical of over-educated folks like us lawyers. Four year undergrad plus 3 years of law school plus a year of articling for mediocre pay brought me to age 27. Add in my MBA and I’d have been 29 had I done it all consecutively. Undergrad debt of $30k, law school debt of another $30k, and MBA debt of $80k all had to be dealt with along with saving, kids, etc. All sorted now at 38, but it took some doing – I was definitely in worse shape than this poster at 31 just by virtue of excessive education.

#65 Midnights on 09.27.20 at 6:04 pm

Dogman01

Your point is valid concerning Alberta. Martin Armstrong has written about this multiple times. Questions have come in from several Albertans like yourself pondering the same views.
And M.F., It’s called the green new deal.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/?s=Alberta

#66 Dosouth on 09.27.20 at 6:13 pm

#39 Vanreal on 09.27.20 at 4:04 pm
Garth you forgot to mention that active listings are also way down in Vancouver. Detached are selling within 22 days for 99.8% of asking. Stats are from Zolo……..
‐——–…………………

Realtors are relisting properties at an amazing rate getting new MLS numbers with lower prices cheating actual DOM-days on market lnumbers to look low. Changes in prive as well will find a buyer hence the 99% number. But not really the original price or DOM’s.

They are diddling with stats…..quelle surprise

#67 John on 09.27.20 at 6:19 pm

Garth, with all due respect, but let me give you some points that I believe Arnie thinks about too:
1. Why becoming house horny now? Because we’ve waited for an economic screwup for long enough to buy real estate. We were thinking “here comes high rates and house prices will fall” – didn’t happen. Or “here comes unenployment, now for sure the prices will fall” – didn’t happen. More than that the prices went up! Expecting a 200K fall in price (as said in the article), won’t bring them to the pre-pandemic levels. Hence the facts about the govt keeping the real estate high.
2. The people started to understand: “debt is the king”. The official inflation numbers are low, but everybody knows that’s bull… Real inflation is between 5 to 8% http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts Having 1M in debt and paying 1.8% on it, you automatically make ~4% by keeping debt. Give the facts that houses we’re going up most of the time, then having debt is the new way to make money.
3. But let’s say that the prices will eventually fall. Here’s Arnie saying that he can take up to 150k fall from 800k. Besides if he keeps the house he won’t lose money.
4. Looking at the amount of money printed, everybody understands that the assets will skyrocket. We saw this happening in the last decade even considering that the previous crash was mainly in the real estate! Where are the prices now?
5. Here’s an article to read, Stephen Roach – former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia believes the US dollar will crash… https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-dollar-crash-high-chance-double-dip-recession-roach-2020-9-1029618113

Conclusion: keeping everything in cash will burry you. Investing needs to be done very carefully, since you might end up paying too much in fees and/or not investing in the right assets and/or not have the stomach to look at your portfolio every day. And Canadian real estate looked rock-solid all these years + the government plays under its tune. This is the answer for A LOT of people as I see.

#68 Nonplused on 09.27.20 at 6:29 pm

#19 NSNG on 09.27.20 at 2:23 pm

“If you do not comply with their arbitrary rules, you will not be allowed into their stores.

Question. Can they be sued for discrimination?”

No more so than a restaurant can be sued for a “no shirt no shoes no service” policy. It’s their store, it is not public property, so you really don’t have “rights” there any more than you have a right to plant a garden on your neighbor’s lawn. They could only be sued for discrimination if they were applying the rules based of discriminating factors such as race or sexual preference.

Also many of these corporations are taking the view that if they don’t take every reasonable precaution and there is an outbreak traced back to their operations they will get their hinnies sued off. So they don’t want your business that bad. That is also part of the reason the schools that are open resemble high security prisons. No person who has been around kids before will believe that the kids are either willing or able to follow the rules with 100% efficacy but the school board has to be able to argue that they did their part.

#69 Trojan House on 09.27.20 at 6:30 pm

You wanna buy a house Arnie? Think about this – my $9000 roof job just went up another $7500 after the roofers removed the old shingles only to find out the plywood underneath is deteriorating badly. That’s $16,500 dropped in one week.

It’s called the joys of home ownership.

#70 april on 09.27.20 at 6:38 pm

#64 – Zolo, the real estate cartel.. you believe their numbers?

#71 Nonplused on 09.27.20 at 6:47 pm

#7 John on 09.27.20 at 1:29 pm

“Both kids and house are very expensive. An average kid will cost you over 1.6 million dollars over the lifetime.”

What kind of kids are you raising? They are very expensive no doubt but most estimates are $150-$200 thousand. And while there must be some theoretical level below which you cannot go when raising a child, like most things they cost what you are willing to pay. Private schools, piano lessons, vacations to Hawaii, putting the car seat in the back of a Jag, those things add up. But other kids share a room, wear hand-me-downs, maybe get to go to Scouts and eat Cheerios, ride around in a used minivan with a missing hubcap, and that’s it.

#72 You can't get there from here on 09.27.20 at 6:54 pm

As bad as the downturn in sales for “regular” condos is, it’s even worse for age-restricted condos. I am speaking anecdotally.

My father died in February, and my sister and I listed his condo for sale in late March (terrible timing with the onset of Covid, but so be it).

In almost 7 months now, there have been fewer than 10 showings. When we started, the price was $380,000, which our realtor thought was a reasonable price given the condition and sales of similar units (pre-Covid sales…..) The condo is 1350 sq. ft, and is in very good condition, although I suppose it could use new cupboards or flooring if one wasn’t happy with the existing carpet or cupboards. But there’s nothing actually wrong with them.

In any event, there are now 6 units for sale in the building (low-rise, 3 stories), when there used to be just two. And within a 6 block radius, there are 25 more age-restricted condos for sale. No one is buying these age-restricted condos.

We have lowered the price several times, and now sit at $300,000, a drop of some 20%. And still there are next to no showings.

Reasons our realtor has indicated it is not selling:

a) Age-restricted – you can’t live there unless you are 55 years old or older. Which right off the bat eliminates probably 80% of potential buyers. And the age 55+ group is probably the most wary about catching Covid, making a condo even less desirable for that age group.

b) No pets.

c) No rentals

d) And, since rentals are not allowed, that means no investors either.

So, we wait, as more and more listings crowd the field…

#73 S.Bby on 09.27.20 at 6:58 pm

After a brisk three months, the R/E market in Burnaby BC is slowing down for sure. Properties are staying on the market longer and there are more places for sale.

#74 Nonplused on 09.27.20 at 7:18 pm

#69 Trojan House on 09.27.20 at 6:30 pm
You wanna buy a house Arnie? Think about this – my $9000 roof job just went up another $7500 after the roofers removed the old shingles only to find out the plywood underneath is deteriorating badly. That’s $16,500 dropped in one week.

It’s called the joys of home ownership.

——————————–

Yup. Then the furnace goes every 20 years, hot water tanks last about 10, then the insurance company says no flood insurance unless you replace that PBE plumbing (the grey stuff), then a tree needs to be removed, then the fence rots away and the deck too, then you need new siding, the hits just keep coming.

PS I think metal shingles are the way to go if you can afford it. Before that it was tile but there are still issues with that, specifically sealing the caps.

#75 Ballingsford on 09.27.20 at 7:18 pm

Garth, agree the last few months of rutting season is over on Ottawa. What a pile of crap it’s been. Everything going for a hundred grand over asking. Everyone from Toronto and BC are selling and moving here and jacking the prices.
Sucks to be a millenial.

#76 Drinking on 09.27.20 at 7:24 pm

#67 John

Cash is King!! Good-luck with your theory!!

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.27.20 at 7:26 pm

#13 Flop… on 09.27.20 at 1:53 pm
Currently watching The Buffalo Bills play on t.v.

Scanning the advertising boards for the Turner Investments sign, after Garth spoke so lovingly about the city the other day…

M46BC
—————-
I don’t get what people find in American football.
Soooo slow. Baseball has less down time.
I’m told the Superbowl commercials are the cultural event of the year.
Please enlighten this Austrian country pumpkin.

#78 45north on 09.27.20 at 7:27 pm

Arnie I’ve put off buying for about 18 months and I agree with all of your analysis, and I do believe Canadian economics and real estate are a ticking time bomb. However, the government seems intent to keep real estate prices high, even if it means they have to sink the entire country to do so. To hell with jobs, fiscal prudence, taxpayers, stocks, and everything else that’s productive, as long as homeowners can make a quick buck when they sell their houses.

Arnie, there’s too much clutter. Let’s simplify “real estate is a ticking time bomb”.

“If I rent for another 3 years at $2500 a month, I’ll be $100,000 down the drain.

If you rent for another 3 years, it’ll cost you $100,000 to avoid a ticking time bomb. Another advantage is you can move to where the job is.

#79 John on 09.27.20 at 7:37 pm

#76 Drinking

My theory made my friends a 400-900k profit by getting as deep as they could in debt and flipping houses. While me working hard + saving and investing got me nowhere near their lowest 400k

#80 yvr_lurker on 09.27.20 at 7:44 pm

#68 “If you do not comply with their arbitrary rules, you will not be allowed into their stores.”
———————————

Indeed, perfectly reasonable as it is private property. However, when I see an increasing number of “Go Fund Me” pages to support local businesses, I can’t say that I would ever contribute to this. I asked one of these businesses about 3 years ago to contribute a 20.00 gift voucher for a silent auction for my kid’s local school (I was on the PAC). Owner shrugged his shoulders and told me that his policy was to decline all such requests. (all the while many families with local kids were going to his restaurant for years). Sorry for his situation now, but we are optimizing our situation at the moment by being as frugal as possible making dinners in and cutting way back on expenses; and that includes no “go fund me” support for the likes of him.

#81 Nonplused on 09.27.20 at 7:57 pm

#68 Nonplused on 09.27.20 at 6:29 pm
#19 NSNG on 09.27.20 at 2:23 pm
#27 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.27.20 at 3:02 pm
#115 crowdedelevatorfartz

——————————–

Staying ahead of the scammers and thieves is always a full time job. They need security guards everywhere.

For example many people find it offensive that when you leave the Costco you have to show your receipt and the staff person makes a fake cursory look at your cart and then draws a black line on the receipt. People protest that this is “an infringement” or “an insult”. But most people don’t understand what Costco is really doing. They aren’t magically confirming in 2 seconds what it took the cashier and the packer so 2 people 5 minutes to do. Nope. They are marking the receipt as having left the building.

Why? Because sneaky people will buy a 60 inch TV and then a couple of groceries to make it look innocent enough, then swing by again and load the cart the same way and try and take out another TV and jug of milk and some pickles (camouflage). If the receipt is marked, it is still valid for returns but you can’t use it to exit the store. Yes, people actually try that crap. They timestamp the receipts too but the big black streak leaves no doubt, the goods paid for have already left the store.

Of course I am sure that some thieves pay a cut to the staff to not have their receipts marked, but it is a never ending battle.

The “tap” problem is also real but as always the credit card companies do try and keep the losses to a minimum. For example, I found that you cannot use a credit card to buy gas twice in the same location on the same day even if you are using a pin. How did I find this out? I have a boat. (It’s old, and wasn’t a great decision but hey, live and learn. It has been fun.) So we would fill up the truck with regular gas, shut off the pump, then pull forward and try to fill the boat up with premium. That used to work fine but then one day it did no more. We phoned the credit card company thinking there must be a problem and they said “Nope. That is policy now. It is to limit theft.”

I remember I also had problems with my diesel 3500 for a while when oil prices (and thus fuel prices) were rising. My truck can take a fierce amount of fuel, which lasts along time if I am dead-heading but the tank is sized as if I might be towing (which I do). Suddenly the pump was shutting off at 3/4 of a tank, even though I had selected “fill”. At that time you could re-swipe the card to get the rest of the tank, but where we are now is a higher limit but no re-swiping. So if I want to fill my diesel truck and my jerry cans for the lawn mower and fill a propane tank for the bbq, I need 3 cards.

#82 Flop... on 09.27.20 at 8:00 pm

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.27.20 at 7:26 pm
#13 Flop… on 09.27.20 at 1:53 pm
Currently watching The Buffalo Bills play on t.v.

Scanning the advertising boards for the Turner Investments sign, after Garth spoke so lovingly about the city the other day…

M46BC
—————-
I don’t get what people find in American football.
Soooo slow. Baseball has less down time.
I’m told the Superbowl commercials are the cultural event of the year.
Please enlighten this Austrian country pumpkin.

////////////////////

Happy Days!

It’s The Ponz.

I know you didn’t ask but my joke regarding Buffalo was in reaction to this passage by Garth the other day.

“Sales in the region are up about 40% from last year and prices have risen 15%. Plus, if you move to Fort Erie, you get to see Buffalo across the river, with its picturesque red and blue flashing first responder lights and ever-present glow from smoldering buildings.”

American Football, yes can be slow and frustrating.

Let’s get serious though, so can soccer.

The best thing about American Football compared to Hockey, Baseball and Basketball is they only play 16 games and then the finals start, so every game matters.

My team is the Kansas City Chiefs,I finally chose a team to support in 2013. I used to watch Andy Reid dial up plays for the Philadelphia Eagles and liked the offensive attitude of raking up lots of points compared to my wife’s team The Seattle Seahawks.

He had one bad season and then got the job at Kansas, that sealed the deal for me.He looks like he could be working at The Shake Shack.

Let’s get off the sport horse and transfer onto the business and competition donkeys.

Super Bowl ads?

I think last year advertisers were paying something like 5 million for a 30 second spot.

Canada was blocked from getting them in real time, then allowed, now back to be blocked after Canadian companies complained last time I checked.

I will leave you with a statement I saw on a store sign in Vienna.

There are no kangaroos in Austria…

M46BC

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.27.20 at 8:01 pm

@#44 the jaguar
“Read the other day that there is a ‘hay’ shortage in Quebec. People wondering how to feed their horses, etc when the current supply runs out.”

++++
I lived in Albert in the early 80’s and totally agree with you and Billybob’s comments
Cando attitude and get the govt out of my way.

As for the hay.
Compress it into pellets and emulsify it in water and send it via an eastern pipeline………

#84 Steerage on 09.27.20 at 8:05 pm

#49 Papabear on 09.27.20 at 4:36 pm
Interesting article today, Garth, good points.

The “you only have 80k at 31?” bit was a bit upsetting, as someone else mentioned before – Not everyone can save six figures by 30. As a followup article this week, perhaps you can talk about prudent savings rates at different stages of ones life?

Thirty-one is halfway to retirement for most people. And 70% have no corporate pensions. – Garth

A bit more child labour and they’d be all set.

#85 Proud CERBian on 09.27.20 at 8:06 pm

My country did not come to an end tonight.

It will be here forever!

O CERBia, we stand on guard, for thee!

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.27.20 at 8:07 pm

@#50 WUL
“A red letter day in Fort Mac today. A round of golf in the waning days of the season. Some colour along the fairways including the gold of the Tamaracks.”

++++
Book a round of Golf for next weekend.
BC is getting 25 c sunny weather for most of this week coming up and I suspect it will move east……

#87 Vanreal on 09.27.20 at 8:08 pm

#39 Vanreal on 09.27.20 at 4:04 pm
Garth you forgot to mention that active listings are also way down in Vancouver. Detached are selling within 22 days for 99.8% of asking. Stats are from Zolo

GVREB says inventory up 6% August over July. Down 4% year/year. – Garth

The sales to active listing ratio is still 22.9 according to Zolo from data up to Sept 24. That is sellers territory

#88 Moses71 on 09.27.20 at 8:09 pm

Arnie can blow 1/2 the money for a better house in Calgary with practically nil land transfer tax. Gosh 6 years in a recessionary time here. No one’s kidding when they say economies are local. We need some momentum over here.
The prices won’t be crashing 18% here. We’ve been crashing for years

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.27.20 at 8:09 pm

@#70 april
“Zolo, the real estate cartel.. you believe their numbers?”

++++
Unfortunately more than I would believe CREA or VREA

#90 Nonplused on 09.27.20 at 8:15 pm

#72 You can’t get there from here on 09.27.20 at 6:54 pm

I am not sure why there are “age restricted” condos. Things normally price out, and the few “age restricted” condos I have been in all have swimming pools and hot tubs so the grandchildren will visit. There is a good portion of your condo fees right there. For a grandchild that comes by once a month. I mean, they have soccer practice. It’s not like their calendar is open.

#91 Ace Goodheart on 09.27.20 at 8:23 pm

Some interesting real estate happenings in the funky junction.

A Peugeot. Hydraulic suspension. Not driven in probsvky twenty years. Hiding under a tarp, put up along the upper walls of the house, to catch the falling debris from the disintegrating second floor. All of this encapsulated in forest like shrubbery that would make National Geographic want to organize a canopy tour.

Down the road, we have a slate roofed masterpiece. A massive, grand, old lady, left to quietly decay, while clinging vines devour her unique 1800’s orange brick work, her stained glass windows covered in coal dust that dates back to the second world war. Untouched for more than a human life span. What lies behind those rag covered windows?

Like flowers that bloom once every hundred years, thses massive old piles of prehistoric brick, located between Annette and John, are coming up for sale.

The opportunity of a lifetime beckons.

Many of these houses have never been sold before.

Their origins can be traced back to the murky Crown patent, where one night some never do well won a poker match and, with it, a five hundred dollar piece of land in the middle of the country.

Fifty years later, his kids hooked up with a local developer and built a house. In a style never to be seen again, for more than a hundred years.

And that house, passed down from uncle to cousin to grandma to aunt, thanks to Toronto’s ridiculous real estate price boom, is now on the market.

It is like Christmas for house junkies.

The open houses are like dying, going to heaven, and then going again.

Paradise found.

#92 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.27.20 at 8:27 pm

Sound financial advice from Neil Young for Arnie:
Tell me why.
Is it hard to make arrangements with yourself.
When you’re old enough to repay,
But young enough to sell.

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.27.20 at 8:33 pm

@#77 Ponzie’s Perturbed
“I don’t get what people find in American football.”

+++
True.
The stoppage in plays makes for an agonizing several hours.
I read somewhere that a football is actually in motion for about 17 minutes during 4 quarters of play.

I watch the highlight reels for the spectacular catches…that about it.

Baseball? ugh.
I used to love playing it as a kid but watching it on tv????
Shoot me now and I’ll load the gun.

#94 Winterpeg on 09.27.20 at 8:33 pm

Re: TN’s info about “World population balance”.
I am all in for this discussion. It’s about time. Overpopulation = Climate change along with a host of other problems.

#95 Burnaby Boy on 09.27.20 at 8:35 pm

The “news” today said that Point Roberts is a ghost town now thanks to the inflexible border closure. As if opening the border to the virus free peninsula would wipe out Canada! All very strange and indicative of poor management on both sides. IMHO

#96 Go Arnie on 09.27.20 at 8:37 pm

#42 Not 1st on 09.27.20 at 4:13 pm
I don’t believe Arnie exists. This can’t be real. A real estate bubble accompanied by a pandemic and an overreaction by our govt coupled with a $500B deficit and you are looking at dumping your only free cash into an overpriced house.

Tell me this is a joke.

Correspondence reprinted here is 100% sadly authentic. – Garth


he’s got the skills to make $200k at 31… good on him….

#97 Victor V on 09.27.20 at 8:39 pm

This millennial is desperate to move to Hamilton, but has been outbid seven times

https://financialpost.com/personal-finance/young-money/this-millennial-is-desperate-to-move-to-hamilton-but-has-been-outbid-seven-times

In the research she conducted before the pandemic, she saw multiple homes selling for around $400,000, but her most recent experience is making her think those prices are no longer realistic. Marilyn eyed a house with a $469,000 price tag and having failed before, she pushed all her chips into the middle of the table with a $505,000 bid. (She is only pre-approved for a $500,000 mortgage, so she would have to pay anything above that amount in cash to go along with her intended five per cent down payment).

What Marilyn didn’t know was that she was competing with other high rollers and one in particular put down a $579,000 bid to win the home. She might be desperate to make the birthplace of Tim Hortons her own, but she just can’t compete with those numbers.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone so anxious to move to Hamilton. She’s calling it her existential crisis. For Marilyn, it’s a bit more personal beyond the obvious cheaper real estate prices that are driving the millennial exodus from Toronto. Most of her family lives there now, including her mother. Her parents recently divorced and the split has left her mother without real estate to fall back on for retirement. That scenario terrifies her.

#98 Drinking on 09.27.20 at 9:20 pm

#88 Moses71

Well, if this goes through it could be a good start!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/proposed-railroad-between-alberta-and-alaska-gets-thumbs-up-from-trump-1.5122228

#99 SOMETHINGS UP! on 09.27.20 at 9:25 pm

TRUDEAU’S U.N. SPEECH…… !!!!

Why I’m so PROUD to be CANADIAN.

How the spoiled 1% just don’t get it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13ImxYuB4d4

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.27.20 at 9:28 pm

OH MY MY
A former President of BC Hydro ( Mark Elieson) has co signed a letter to NDP BC Premier John Horgan to stop the construction of the Massive Site C Dam that is way over budget…….

Why?

BC Hydro has admitted in emails that the ground under the dam is unstable and they dont know what to do about it……….
And they are going to be starting the diversion of the river very soon to fill in the river canyon……

I guess former BC Liberal Premier Christy Clark’s brag that she would “get the dam built to the point of no return….”

https://globalnews.ca/news/7362863/b-c-site-c-dam-risks-probed/

“Ahhh what the frack…..lets keep building . We’re already into it for $10 billion….. we cant stop now…..”

#101 MaryEn on 09.27.20 at 9:29 pm

@55

Hi Flop,
We are looking at the area around General Gordon school. The target price is up to 2.8K but we are willing to pay more if we really like it. If we decide to pay over 3K, than we would rather target the self-contained unit as ex. this one that I just saw on Craigslist https://vancouver.craigslist.org/van/apa/d/vancouver-4-bedroom-office-house-near/7204182750.html

#102 Father's Daughter/Long-Term Renters on 09.27.20 at 9:36 pm

The “rent money down the drain” argument down the drain is an annoying one, and as Garth explained, incorrect. My family pays a premium (a reasonable one for our income) to rent in a great neighbourhood. We can leave on two months notice if we feel like it, pay no property tax, don’t stress about what we could be updating/renovating, pay no repairs, can walk to get milk and a million other things, and are friends with the neighbours. As far as I can tell, baby loves it here too.

#103 SoggyShorts on 09.27.20 at 10:01 pm

#74 Nonplused on 09.27.20 at 7:18 pm
#69 Trojan House on 09.27.20 at 6:30 pm

I forget the whole list but my parents bought a place in Calgary 1992 for ~150K
Over 25 years they did
roof 2x,
all windows and doors,
deck,
fence,
furnace (2x?),
water heater,
paint inside 1x
paint outside 2x,
driveway and
remodeled the kitchen plus
both upstairs bathrooms.
———————-
Total was just over 150K

Current value… 400k I think, which is what? a 1% interest rate over 28 years?

That’s the joys of homeownership with the Alberta advantage.

#104 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.27.20 at 10:18 pm

#82 Flop
Yeah, soccer may be slow for the non initiated, but at least it’s over under 2 hours.
American sports reflect the American psyche:
Second place is for suckers.
Therefore, baseball, basketball and football go on until there is a winner.
No room for ties or compromises.
Kinda like their electoral system.
It’s a fricking Gong Show.
I’d be embarrassed to be an American now.

#105 Paul on 09.27.20 at 10:28 pm

#72 You can’t get there from here on 09.27.20 at 6:54 pm
————————————————————————————————
Not selling? It’s the money best and cheapest one in the building. SELLS.

#106 fishman on 09.27.20 at 10:36 pm

Jaguar, catch up if your gonna ride with the boyz. 1/There are two westerly mountain ranges between Alberta & B.C Coast. Between the two ranges are Alberta’s friends. On the other side of the last range are her enemies. 2/B.C. carpenters are back home. 3/ Just finished another (3rd)year of oil rig men on my crew. Nothing like a winter on an oil drilling rig in northern Alberta to make a top notch deep sea fisherman. I used to curse those rigs for taking my best guys with their big money. Not that they are Alberta angels. But they love me. I make them hot chocolate & tuck them into their bunks at nite.
4/I wouldn’t take for granted a steady eddy relationship with Canada. You know what they say? When money goes out the door, love goes out the window. Don’t trust the good guys. Their the ones that’ll steal your girl.

#107 Doug in London on 09.27.20 at 10:42 pm

So all those office buildings will be filling up again you say? Looks like a good time to scoop up those REIT ETFs while they are still on sale, if you haven’t done so already.

#108 meslippery on 09.27.20 at 10:53 pm

4 Dogman01 on 09.27.20 at 1:17 pm

#93 Brenda Ovid on 09.27.20 at 1:21 am
Globalization is great at lowering your standard of living, which is why most Canadians are borrowing like crazy to maintain a standard of living which is no longer affordable with current wages.

——————————————————-
From 1994, describing the destruction of the standard of living in the West via Global Free Trade, adding an unlimited external source of labour outside of the current market to simply import into our established market, the parasite model of capitalism for the host society. Cui bono.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PQrz8F0dBI

Who benefits, just look at the massive wealth inequity trends over the last 30 years. (and decline of our of middle class society).
————————
So when we made jeans and stoves and good wages doing so do you think the owners where poor???
No they are greedy and need more money at the workers expense. The people who allowed free trade well… That may be our down fall. Only time will tell.
But most towns maybe where you are want you to shop local…. How about working local employ Canadians…We can do fine without Globalization. We are the North.

#109 NSNG on 09.28.20 at 12:41 am

#54 DON on 09.27.20 at 4:51 pm

Their business their ruled…you can always take your business elsewhere.

==================================

Yes, I have already done this.

#110 NSNG on 09.28.20 at 1:29 am

#81 Nonplused on 09.27.20 at 7:57 pm

Gift cards should solve that. Because they are prepaid, you can fill multiple times. I do that with my work vehicle at Esso.

#111 Bob Bientland on 09.28.20 at 4:54 am

DELETED

#112 Captain Uppa on 09.28.20 at 7:17 am

What is most concerning right now is another lockdown, which I feel is imminent.

Hope you guys get CEWS.

#113 Steven Rowlandson on 09.28.20 at 7:19 am

“and average detached prices will drop about two hundred thousand.”

They need to drop to $50,000 plus or minus $20,000 and a limit of one per customer. A moratorium on price increases for a thousand years is in order also. The idea that real estate is an investment has to be expunged.

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.20 at 8:15 am

@#99 Somethings up

“TRUDEAU’S U.N. SPEECH…… !!!!

+++++

The only things that are going up is our national debt and our taxes.

But Trudeau does look heroic in the UN speech doesnt he……
Must have worked with his pr dept for weeks to get the gravitas “look” just right.

Nauseating.

#115 the Jaguar on 09.28.20 at 8:20 am

-#106 fishman on 09.27.20 at 10:36 pm

Who needs the Oracle of Omaha when you’ve got Fishman? Enough said.

#116 Captain Uppa on 09.28.20 at 8:34 am

China won’t let their RE market fall, fearing the loss of citizens’ mostly sole pile of wealth would lead to great civil unrest.

So yeah, too big to fail.

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-property-real-estate-boom-covid-pandemic-bubble-11594908517?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/s3gnPdWGKU

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.20 at 8:41 am

Hmmmm
Is China preparing for something?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-defence/china-holds-simultaneous-military-drills-in-four-seas-again-idUSKBN26J1KW

Next stop Taiwan?

#118 Sail Away on 09.28.20 at 8:47 am

#104 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.27.20 at 10:18 pm

American sports reflect the American psyche:
Second place is for suckers.
Therefore, baseball, basketball and football go on until there is a winner.
No room for ties or compromises.
Kinda like their electoral system.
It’s a fricking Gong Show.
I’d be embarrassed to be an American now.

—————-

You might not, because many of us Americans are immune to embarrassment. This phenomenon stems from a nationwide philosophy of tolerance and acceptance. Every time I travel in the US, I just feel… loved.

#119 Fortunefaded on 09.28.20 at 8:47 am

Come now Garth. 80k savings at 31 is decent enough. Generations nowadays are riddled with student debt, ridiculous wedding costs, higher costs of living etc by the time they hit 30. Heck my wife’s friends are early 30’s and they pale in comparison to our boy arbor.
You are doing well arnie baby, now follow garths advice on the whole subject of dropping your entire wad On a home.

#120 Penny Henny on 09.28.20 at 8:51 am

#57 WUL on 09.27.20 at 5:05 pm

Both Walmart and the Loblaws group have made it mandatory for people to wear masks in their stores even though there is no mandatory mask mandate.

If you do not comply with their arbitrary rules, you will not be allowed into their stores.

Question. Can they be sued for discrimination?

property… property … property…
_________________________

Of course they can be sued. It costs $250 to file a lawsuit in the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta.

The stores are their property. They can make any rules they like. “Take your shoes off at the door!” “Don’t sit on the Louis Quatorze couch!” “Feet off the coffee table!”

And, more fundamentally, where’s the discrimination? Everyone receives the same treatment.

A gut cinch loser of a lawsuit after about 6 years duration, in my estimation.

You’re welcome. A modest Statement of Account to follow. Terms? 30 days.
///////////////

What if the store policy was “No face coverings of ANY kind” (religious or otherwise)?
Cheque’s in the mail

#121 looking up on 09.28.20 at 9:09 am

#109 NSNG on 09.28.20 at 12:41 am
#54 DON on 09.27.20 at 4:51 pm

Their business their ruled…you can always take your business elsewhere.

==================================

Yes, I have already done this.

——————

Did you also stop driving cars because they make you wear a seatbelt?

#122 TurnerNation on 09.28.20 at 9:23 am

On Saturday BillyBob posted almost with glee, he was in a 100% mask compliance zone. And that it (Mandid) yet likely was being locked down anew.
Hmm what’s going on. This is not about something working/not working. Is it that Freedom Masks are worn in the hopes your freedoms are restored. Clearly this is not the case. Spain still must be in the Compliance stage. Breaking them down.

– Get ready for the CV Caste system. Imagine being at the airport ready for family vacation. A false positive comes in, you are dragged off to State Quarrantine Camp, wailing and screaming. Children seperated from parents, entire families locked into the Camp for two weeks – jobs, homes, bills fall to the wayside. Do you feel lucky punk?

People will simply not risk this to fly. This is what the goal is:
->to control our breeding, feeding and movements. <-Open air tax farm camp. Freedoms are long gone.
Your Rights of movement depends on an INACCURATE test as this says:

"The Financial Post reports in its Monday edition that European airlines are pinning hopes on preflight COVID-19 tests that deliver results as fast as pregnancy tests. A Reuters dispatch to the Post says that Germany's Lufthansa, at the mercy of government bailouts for survival, is in talks with Swiss drugmaker Roche over deploying so-called antigen tests, as the airline aims to make them available next month. Italian operator Alitalia, meanwhile, told Reuters that from last Wednesday it would add two flights from Milan to Rome, to the two it is already offering from Rome to Milan, exclusively for passengers with negative tests. The tests are administered by health authorities at the airports and included in ticket prices. If they prove popular and safe, these antigen-tested flights will be expanded to more domestic, and later international, routes, the airline said. Unlike laboratory-based molecular tests that have been the staple of health authorities in the pandemic, antigen tests do not require machines to process. Much like pregnancy tests, they can produce results in about 15 minutes. ****However the tests require an uncomfortable nasal swab and are not as accurate as the molecular, or PCR, tests.****

© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved."

#123 Dharma Bum on 09.28.20 at 9:24 am

#42 Not 1st

I don’t believe Arnie exists. This can’t be real.
——————————————————————–

Oh, Arnie exists alright. Read ’em and weep:

http://greatbutforgotten.blogspot.com/2008/10/arnie-tv.html

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0065274/fullcredits

#124 Vitali Kostevskii on 09.28.20 at 9:25 am

the deferred mortgage program is ending ————
simply not true just appied (first time ) and got differal for a 6 moth .

#125 TurnerNation on 09.28.20 at 9:41 am

I saw this just now. Listen to the Airline boss. Our way of life is being destroyed by those which H8.
Dialing us back to the stone age. In the 905 area code I see indoor washrooms closed, porta potties set up outside. Like Outhouses. And they want us on bikes and rickshaws, no more 1st World.

See the great wealth transfer effect; tax payers bailing out airlines too. Our elite rulers must be roaring with their laughter. Like 2008 GFC all over again. They got us again. Fool me once…
…….

The Financial Post reports in its Monday edition that air travel’s “precious role” in modern life is at risk because of the COVID-19 virus, according to Airbus’s boss. A London Daily Telegraph item inside the Post quotes Guillaume Faury, chief executive officer of the pan-European plane maker, warning that the longer borders remain closed and flights grounded, the greater the danger of long-term damage to society, the global economy — and even peace. “Aviation connects and unites people, cultures and businesses, providing the lifeline of international trade, supporting development, education and global economies,” he said in an open letter. “Air travel does not only broaden our intellectual horizons, it eases tensions by bringing us together to learn from and understand each other, helping us find answers to our shared problems. Aviation safeguards global peace and stability. It underpins the multilateralism, diplomacy and conflict resolution that many have taken for granted in the latter part of the 20th century.” The Telegraph notes that international travel bans to curb the spread of COVID-19 have wreaked havoc on the airline industry. (Many global airlines, Canadian ones not included, have received government bailouts.)
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

#126 Sail Away on 09.28.20 at 10:01 am

80k at 31 is perfectly fine. Heck, you’ve only been an adult for 13 years- you’ve still got another 40 or 50 to go.

I probably had less than that at 31… but had all kinds of life experiences, no debt, a fine partner and endless opportunity.

#127 NSNG on 09.28.20 at 10:14 am

#121 looking up on 09.28.20 at 9:09 am

Did you also stop driving cars because they make you wear a seatbelt?

===================================

Unlike masks, seatbelts actually save lives.

If you think masks are what is saving us then why is it that BC does not have a mandatory mask mandate and yet there have only been a handful of covid breakouts in all our BC businesses? It does not follow.

With less than 1% of the population under 70 suffering from covid or its consequences, I will not support a business that pushes the lie. If they are lying to us about covid, what else are they lying to us about?

Secondly, this has nothing to do with protecting us. These mandatory mask rules are about these corporations sucking up to the globalist cabal in order to be first in line when market share is handed out. If and/or when everything goes south, it will be remembered who toed the party line and who ‘rebelled’. The suck ups will be the ones who are given all the power.

This all assumes they achieve their intended goals. That is a huge gamble on their part. Until then, I won’t be supporting corporations who push the lie (get woke, go broke). It is a terrible message to send the kids. Lying should never be rewarded.

#128 David Hawke on 09.28.20 at 10:29 am

“Me and my wife—-”

For some reason, that third grade gramatical faux-pas has always irked me to the point where anyone making it lacks the common sense to act on any advice proffered! Just sayin’.

#129 I believe everything on television on 09.28.20 at 10:40 am

This One Covid Lie Will Bring Down The British Government

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06yja21V7xg

#130 IHCTD9 on 09.28.20 at 11:31 am

Arnie, is there employment for you and the wife in a location with a better income to RE ratio? Might be worthwhile to look into it. You might make less, but you might have more at the end of the month.

The larger GTA incomes are totally cancelled out in most cases where home ownership is desired – and then some. Semi’s in the burbs for 800K? uh – pass.

I’m sure Ms. IH and I could kick semis to the curb, and go right to a brand new 550K sfd – yet still have similar amounts left over at the end of the month than you would buying at 800K, even though we make significantly less than you.

On top of that, lifestyle difference would be massive, nice home on an acre, relaxing <30 min. drive to and from work, listen to frogs and crickets at night instead of traffic and first responders.

#131 looking up on 09.28.20 at 11:35 am

NSNG

#121 looking up on 09.28.20 at 9:09 am

Did you also stop driving cars because they make you wear a seatbelt?

===================================

Unlike masks, seatbelts actually save lives.

If you think masks are what is saving us then why is it that BC does not have a mandatory mask mandate and yet there have only been a handful of covid breakouts in all our BC businesses? It does not follow.

With less than 1% of the population under 70 suffering from covid or its consequences, I will not support a business that pushes the lie. If they are lying to us about covid, what else are they lying to us about?

Secondly, this has nothing to do with protecting us. These mandatory mask rules are about these corporations sucking up to the globalist cabal in order to be first in line when market share is handed out. If and/or when everything goes south, it will be remembered who toed the party line and who ‘rebelled’. The suck ups will be the ones who are given all the power.

This all assumes they achieve their intended goals. That is a huge gamble on their part. Until then, I won’t be supporting corporations who push the lie (get woke, go broke). It is a terrible message to send the kids. Lying should never be rewarded.

———-

Then why have surgeons and nurses been wearing masks for eons?

You are overthinking all this. Just wear the damn mask. And if you choose not to then just stay indoors and order everything from Amazon and Grocery gateway.

Easy.

#132 Stone on 09.28.20 at 11:40 am

#119 Fortunefaded on 09.28.20 at 8:47 am
Come now Garth. 80k savings at 31 is decent enough. Generations nowadays are riddled with student debt, ridiculous wedding costs, higher costs of living etc by the time they hit 30. Heck my wife’s friends are early 30’s and they pale in comparison to our boy arbor.
You are doing well arnie baby, now follow garths advice on the whole subject of dropping your entire wad On a home.

———

Nope, $80k for two people at 31 making $200k is pathetic.

When I was that age 14 years ago, I was making about $60k a year and had already built up close to $200k in tangible/marketable net worth. This was also before house prices shot up so real estate outside of my downpayment and mortgage payments doesn’t even figure in inflating that $200k.

Priorities.

It’s obvious that theirs are based on wants and instant gratification. Just look at Arnie’s comment about throwing away money renting. Zero perspective or life strategy.

#133 looking up on 09.28.20 at 11:47 am

Now in other news…

My buddy is trying to unload his house in Etobicoke. He’s highly leveraged and is struggling since his tenants all bailed. Started at 200 000 over asking where he bought in 2017. No offers very little traffic. He is now asking where he bought in 2017. Again no offers very little traffic.

He’s fearful that’s he’s missed the FOMO buying wave.

Is this the beginning of the long awaited correction?

#134 Ronaldo on 09.28.20 at 11:47 am

#126 Sail Away on 09.28.20 at 10:01 am
80k at 31 is perfectly fine. Heck, you’ve only been an adult for 13 years- you’ve still got another 40 or 50 to go.

I probably had less than that at 31… but had all kinds of life experiences, no debt, a fine partner and endless opportunity.
—————————————————————–
$80,000 is not what it used to be but I do know that when I was 31 you could buy a very nice above average home with it. But that was 43 years ago and the home that I built myself cost me about $80,000 to build back then but was valued at well over $100,000 at the time. What can you get with $80,000 today? A truck with nutz.

#135 IHCTD9 on 09.28.20 at 11:54 am

#128 David Hawke on 09.28.20 at 10:29 am
“Me and my wife—-”

For some reason, that third grade gramatical faux-pas has always irked me….
___

I don’t crap on folks due to grammar/spelling for the most part – but this one also seems to grate on me more than any other for some reason.

#136 Lambchop on 09.28.20 at 12:00 pm

#129 I believe everything on television on 09.28.20 at 10:40 am
This One Covid Lie Will Bring Down The British Government

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06yja21V7xg

_________________

Hahahaha ridiculous.
Has there ever existed in history any medical event surrounded by so much controversy, conflicting information and distrust?

If confusion is the goal, then mission accomplished.

How could this only affect the British government?

#137 LP on 09.28.20 at 12:10 pm

#135 IHCTD9 on 09.28.20 at 11:54 am
#128 David Hawke on 09.28.20 at 10:29 am
“Me and my wife—-”

For some reason, that third grade gramatical faux-pas has always irked me….
___

I don’t crap on folks due to grammar/spelling for the most part – but this one also seems to grate on me more than any other for some reason.
*******************
My candidate for worst are those who use injuries for wounds. For some reason news readers on television cannot seem to hear the difference.

Our language is rapidly being overtaken by the “prollys” and “ya knows” and other horrible usages. I wish that would stop.

#138 not 1st on 09.28.20 at 12:11 pm

#131 looking up on 09.28.20 at 11:35 am

You are overthinking all this. Just wear the damn mask. And if you choose not to then just stay indoors and order everything from Amazon and Grocery gateway.

Easy.

—-

Doctors and nurses only wear masks in the operating theatre.

I have been through dozens of medi clinics, emerg rooms, ICUs, cancer wards and my own doctors office where he sees 100 patients a day and not once did they ever wear masks in the decades I have been alive. Neither have my dentists or my optometrist. Didnt even wear them when my kids were taken to the baby wards with dozens of other kids after birth.

But keep telling yourself they are for your own good.

#139 Catalyst on 09.28.20 at 12:13 pm

To Arnie:

I use a super secret calculator for evaluating real estate investment. And everything relies on the inputs of which you are guessing (interest rates, tax increases, rent increases, maintenance cost, utilities) so it’s directional not science.

My #1 rule is everyone should be at least neutral housing in Canada given its preferential treatment and it being your primary tool to gain access to credit. Lenders in Canada hate cash flow lending and don’t understand it, all they understand is collateral. So buy the house.

Some numbers to consider, if you assume $800k purchase, with $80k down and 2% mortgage rate, 400/m tax, 150/m utilities you have total cost of $3765. The delta from renting is -$1,265/mo. But you pay down principal at $1854/m so you net $588/m assuming house prices stay the same. Speculating they go up or down is your call and will influence your decision.

If you are wring and they go up 2%/yr you can add another $80k loss for not buying. Garth will point out the opportunity cost of saving/investing but I think this washes out the potential price gain so I discount it since portfolios aren’t guaranteed to go up either.

Short answer, buy the damn house then build some investments as your careers and income grows. Get neutral housing.

#140 LP on 09.28.20 at 12:15 pm

And for another thing, those of us who use “for some reason” too much. I just re-read my previous post in reply to two others. Each of us three used “for some reason” in our contribution. Cheez-Louise!!

#141 Tater on 09.28.20 at 12:25 pm

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.27.20 at 7:26 pm
#13 Flop… on 09.27.20 at 1:53 pm
Currently watching The Buffalo Bills play on t.v.

Scanning the advertising boards for the Turner Investments sign, after Garth spoke so lovingly about the city the other day…

M46BC
—————-
I don’t get what people find in American football.
Soooo slow. Baseball has less down time.
I’m told the Superbowl commercials are the cultural event of the year.
Please enlighten this Austrian country pumpkin.
—————————————————————-
American football is probably the most complex and strategic team sport played today. A well coached team, with a good strategy can beat a team with better athletes. Conversely, a standout performance from one individual can ruin a weeks worth of careful game planning and match up making.

The stop in action every 10 seconds gives a chance to analyze the previous play, evaluate what was or wasn’t successful, spot tendencies that may be exploited later and on and on.

Oh, and there is a robust and liquid gambling market on top of it all. What more could you want from your entertainment??

#142 mike from mtl on 09.28.20 at 12:26 pm

#136 Lambchop on 09.28.20 at 12:00 pm

How could this only affect the British government?
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

No they’re not the only ones, QC is also the same playbook. Like magic case numbers are up everywhere, despite a slight uptick in hospital stays, not really ICU and deaths have been flat 0~1 for months. NYC is exactly the same story. The media’s been on about another shutdown and at this point I’d not be surprised.

But the bigger question is why? That won’t fix anything, unless we do house arrest CCP style, it’s just a hammer on everyone and won’t change the fact everyone will ‘catch’ it.

#143 Love_The_Cottage on 09.28.20 at 12:36 pm

Dow up 480 right now. I just did my quarterly look at the numbers and rebalanced which resulted in selling some SPY.

#144 Nelson Armstrong on 09.28.20 at 12:43 pm

I think you nailed it with Arnie. I read your posts and enjoy them…most of the time…like when I agree with them (no surprise there). Making $200K a year and you can’t save more than 80K! Good grief. My wife and I are retired and put more than that in our TFSA and our income is greatly less than half of theirs. We have no pension plan income, our retirement savings, CPP, and OAP fund our retirement. In fairness, we don’t have a mortgage and own our own home. It’s not lavish but it’s comfortable. We took many cruises in our younger years and probably pissed away over $150K on them but we have no regrets. Still we saved.

Arnie needs to take a close look at their lifestyle and sit down with a good money manager and see what they are capable of doing with their financial resources.

Keep up the good work Garth. I like a person who tells it like it is without gilding the lily.

#145 TurnerNation on 09.28.20 at 12:59 pm

#131 looking up what a hoot, going to grocery store is same-same as open heart surgery ? Surgeons wear masks as they are CUTTING OPEN your largest organ, your skin, and cutting into your guts, exposing blood, raw flesh, and exposing it to who knows what.

I passed a small restaurant with many signs, one say Quarantine Zone. Have people lost their minds, am I really going to stop and eat in a freaking make-shift internment camp?

Good new folks you never will get “cases” in the large corporate chains – like Earls, Moxies or Cactus club or The Keg. No.
You ONLY get cases in the small independent places…aka fodder of the condo developers:
https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/

#146 TurnerNation on 09.28.20 at 1:00 pm

#131 looking up what a rip, going to grocery store is same-same as open heart surgery ? Surgeons wear masks as they are CUTTING OPEN your largest organ, your skin, and cutting into your guts, exposing blood, raw flesh, and exposing it to who knows what.

I passed a small restaurant with many signs, one say Quarantine Zone. Have people lost their minds, am I really going to stop and eat in a freaking make-shift internment camp?

Good new folks you never will get “cases” in the large corporate chains – like Earls, Moxies or Cactus club or The Keg. No.
You ONLY get cases in the small independent places…aka fodder of the condo developers:
https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/

#147 mnpr on 09.28.20 at 1:02 pm

#11 -=withwings=- on 09.27.20 at 1:50 pm

“The reality is the ‘west’ is really Alberta and sorry to say no one else is really thinking about the 11% of Canada that is Alberta.”
————————————————————-
And therein lies the problem. Alberta is a proud region of Canada with a strong and independent mindset, with specific goals and aspirations separate from recognized and welcome obligations to the ROC. But when your goals and aspirations are continually thwarted by a controlling entity (the long-standing power structures in central Canada), who, in your words, doesn’t care at all, then if you have any integrity at all you need to take action. I don’t know if wexit is the answer… possibly working toward greater economic integration with the USA would help, such as this A2A announcement, without leaving Canada. There certainly is much risk involved with wexit. But ask yourself if you would rather continue to live in your controlling parent’s basement and continue to have your basic needs met, without any risk…. or whether it is better to strike out on your own, accepting the risks involved, but willing to take on the challenge with the possibility of tremendous personal growth, and, at least, the satisfaction that you are standing on your own two feet.

#148 Looking up on 09.28.20 at 1:08 pm

#138 not 1st on 09.28.20 at 12:11 pm
#131 looking up on 09.28.20 at 11:35 am

You are overthinking all this. Just wear the damn mask. And if you choose not to then just stay indoors and order everything from Amazon and Grocery gateway.

Easy.

—-

Doctors and nurses only wear masks in the operating theatre.

I have been through dozens of medi clinics, emerg rooms, ICUs, cancer wards and my own doctors office where he sees 100 patients a day and not once did they ever wear masks in the decades I have been alive. Neither have my dentists or my optometrist. Didnt even wear them when my kids were taken to the baby wards with dozens of other kids after birth.

But keep telling yourself they are for your own good.

————-

Oh Brother…..

Let me tell ya, natural selection at work.

#149 KLNR on 09.28.20 at 1:16 pm

@#135 IHCTD9 on 09.28.20 at 11:54 am
#128 David Hawke on 09.28.20 at 10:29 am
“Me and my wife—-”

For some reason, that third grade gramatical faux-pas has always irked me….
___

I don’t crap on folks due to grammar/spelling for the most part – but this one also seems to grate on me more than any other for some reason.

i’d throw lose vs loose in there.
crazy how many folks don’t know the difference.

#150 NSNG on 09.28.20 at 1:16 pm

#131 looking up on 09.28.20 at 11:35 am

Then why have surgeons and nurses been wearing masks for eons?

==================================

Of course! We all need operating room sterility for a virus that can barely harm anyone under 70.

Absurd!

Go take your vitamin D

#151 Lorne on 09.28.20 at 1:28 pm

#138 not 1st on 09.28.20 at 12:11 pm
#131 looking up on 09.28.20 at 11:35 am

You are overthinking all this. Just wear the damn mask. And if you choose not to then just stay indoors and order everything from Amazon and Grocery gateway.

Easy.

—-

Doctors and nurses only wear masks in the operating theatre.

I have been through dozens of medi clinics, emerg rooms, ICUs, cancer wards and my own doctors office where he sees 100 patients a day and not once did they ever wear masks in the decades I have been alive. Neither have my dentists or my optometrist. Didnt even wear them when my kids were taken to the baby wards with dozens of other kids after birth.

But keep telling yourself they are for your own good.
…….

Bottom line: if you wear a mask and it turns out to be unnecessary, who has been hurt? You and everyone you have been around is still well. However, if you do not wear a mask because you do not believe in it being useful, and it turns out you are wrong, who has been harmed? Probably many people you have been in contact with including your family members. Is it really a good idea to take that chance or is is better to be as protective as possible?

#152 IHCTD9 on 09.28.20 at 1:37 pm

#134 Ronaldo on 09.28.20 at 11:47 am
#126 Sail Away on 09.28.20 at 10:01 am
80k at 31 is perfectly fine. Heck, you’ve only been an adult for 13 years- you’ve still got another 40 or 50 to go.

I probably had less than that at 31… but had all kinds of life experiences, no debt, a fine partner and endless opportunity.
—————————————————————–
$80,000 is not what it used to be but I do know that when I was 31 you could buy a very nice above average home with it. But that was 43 years ago and the home that I built myself cost me about $80,000 to build back then but was valued at well over $100,000 at the time. What can you get with $80,000 today? A truck with nutz
___

Young guy in the shop (20 something), bought a brand new GMC Sierra AT4 4 door with the 6.2. Sweet. Mouth wateringly handsome. Ridiculously nice. Jaw dropping vehicle. A truck to die for…

…uh, where was I?

Ah, yes – 71,000.00, plus tax = 80,230, plus financing = 87,570.00. You can go way up from there with 2500’s/3500’s diesels, Denali trim – 6 figures before tax and financing.

So yeah, 80K is truck money these days, not quite enough even…

#153 Sail away on 09.28.20 at 1:38 pm

#137 LP on 09.28.20 at 12:10 pm
#135 IHCTD9 on 09.28.20 at 11:54 am
#128 David Hawke on 09.28.20 at 10:29 am

“Me and my wife—-”

For some reason, that third grade gramatical faux-pas has always irked me….

———–

I don’t crap on folks due to grammar/spelling for the most part – but this one also seems to grate on me more than any other for some reason.

———–

My candidate for worst are those who use injuries for wounds. For some reason news readers on television cannot seem to hear the difference.

Our language is rapidly being overtaken by the “prollys” and “ya knows” and other horrible usages. I wish that would stop.

———–

On the other hand, many educated people also use ‘My wife and I’ incorrectly.

As in…

Question: ‘Who’s there’
Grammatically incorrect: ‘My wife and I’

Grammatically correct: ‘My wife and me’, or ‘Me and my wife’

#154 AGuyInVancouver on 09.28.20 at 1:41 pm

#19 NSNG on 09.27.20 at 2:23 pm
Are there any lawyers out there?

I’ve got a question.

And before the Karens get triggered, this is not a question about the mask debate or its morality, it is just a hypothetical question I have regarding corporate power and overreach.

Here in BC, we do not have a business mask mandate. The government has not ordered all citizens to wear masks in all businesses.

Both Walmart and the Loblaws group have made it mandatory for people to wear masks in their stores even though there is no mandatory mask mandate.

If you do not comply with their arbitrary rules, you will not be allowed into their stores.

Question. Can they be sued for discrimination?
_ _ _

Just man up and put on the mask.

Or get all your groceries etc delivered.

#155 Steerage on 09.28.20 at 1:45 pm

Eh gad……. $650k to swear in a ceremonial puppet………

Who voted for the T2 clown show.. are you happy now!.. they’re gonna hit 2 trillion when they’re done…

https://nationalpost.com/news/local-news/julie-payettes-swearing-in-ceremony-blew-past-its-pre-approved-budget-documents-show

#156 Petulant on 09.28.20 at 2:23 pm

You are spot on again, sir!

The “bubble” has been leaking for decades. At some point the general public is going to find out that “credit card” wealth is actually quite the opposite. We’ve been living beyond our means since the early 90s.

What happened in 2008 is a sideshow compared to what is coming.

#157 Penny Henny on 09.28.20 at 2:43 pm

#125 TurnerNation on 09.28.20 at 9:41 am
“Aviation connects and unites people, cultures and businesses, providing the lifeline of international trade, supporting development, education and global economies,” he said in an open letter. “Air travel does not only broaden our intellectual horizons, it eases tensions by bringing us together to learn from and understand each other, helping us find answers to our shared problems. Aviation safeguards global peace and stability. It underpins the multilateralism, diplomacy and conflict resolution that many have taken for granted in the latter part of the 20th century.”

///////////////

we should all strive to be as good as aviation.

#158 Bill on 09.28.20 at 2:45 pm

Its only the begining of the end. We have corupt leaders everywhere.
Good f#####g bye middle class…and that is the plan. Oh no Im wrong there is no plan… just doing what takes to dbe a dictator in disguise.

https://omny.fm/shows/money-talks-with-michael-campbell/quote-of-the-week-goofy-award-1

#159 Ronaldo on 09.28.20 at 3:04 pm

DELETED

#160 TalkingPie on 09.28.20 at 3:27 pm

The moment I hear the phrase, “throwing money away on rent,” I know I’m dealing with someone who’s underinformed and hasn’t thought things through. And that’s before we get to the paragraph where our buddy displays his abysmal math skills.

If you don’t like throwing away money on rent, you’re really going to hate throwing it away on land transfer taxes, municipal taxes, school taxes, mortgage interest (even at 2%, we’re talking $14,000 in the first year alone on an $800k townhouse), house insurance, CMHC insurance (if you’re a commoner who can’t manage 20% down), and myriad maintenance costs, both planned and unforeseen. You’re also giving up the opportunity cost of putting down your $80k.

Owning my own home is great in a number of ways, but I didn’t go into it thinking it would reduce the amount of money I “throw away,” and it hasn’t disappointed. I also bought in an area where far less money bought far more house.

If you can only scrape together $80k on a $200k salary while renting before kids, there’s a high likelihood you’re going to get in over your head owning a house while caring for a baby.

#161 David Hawke on 09.28.20 at 3:49 pm

#152Sail away

¡¡¡WRONG!!!

#162 Lorne on 09.28.20 at 4:17 pm

Two possibilities for you:
1) a)you choose not to wear a mask and it turns out that you are correct and masks do not help protect others so there is no more spread than would normally occur.
b) you choose not to wear a mask and it turns out that your are incorrect and masks do help contain the virus and some of your friends and family contact the virus

2)a) you wear a mask and it turns out that they are effective in containing the spread and none of your family or friends contacted Covid from you.
b) you wear a mask and it turns out they are not effective in containing the spread.

What are the negatives to wearing a mask?

#163 Sail Away on 09.28.20 at 4:28 pm

#161 David Hawke on 09.28.20 at 3:49 pm
#152Sail away

¡¡¡WRONG!!!

——–

Oh?

Please elucidate.

Feel free to use all caps and exclamation points as long as your rebuttal is cogent, concise and accurate.

#164 El Presidente on 09.28.20 at 5:14 pm

#162 Lorne on 09.28.20 at 4:17 pm

Two possibilities for you:
1) a)you choose not to wear a mask and it turns out that you are correct and masks do not help protect others so there is no more spread than would normally occur.
b) you choose not to wear a mask and it turns out that your are incorrect and masks do help contain the virus and some of your friends and family contact the virus

2)a) you wear a mask and it turns out that they are effective in containing the spread and none of your family or friends contacted Covid from you.
b) you wear a mask and it turns out they are not effective in containing the spread.

What are the negatives to wearing a mask.


It has been conclusively proven to cause shrinkage in deplorables…..

#165 Sail Away on 09.28.20 at 6:28 pm

#162 Lorne on 09.28.20 at 4:17 pm

Re: mask vs no mask

————-

Lorne:

Two possibilities for you:

1a) you choose to ignore religion and it turns out that you are correct and fade into oblivion at death

1b) you choose to ignore religion and it turns out you are wrong, so end up in perpetual, unending flaming agony in HELL

2a) you practice religion and it’s successful, so you end up with an eternally blissful heavenly reward

2b) you practice religion but it is of no use whatsoever and you still end up in hell

What are the negatives to practicing religion?

#166 Tom Jones on 09.28.20 at 7:51 pm

Along the same vain of many of the comments re: net worth by age. What’s general consensus on appropriate net worth by the ages? Say 30, 40, 50 ?

#167 Dmitry on 09.29.20 at 2:53 am

Hello dear Garth! Thank you for continuing to be brave with your opinions trying to predict the future. To help you keep your compass calibrated let me remind you how you mocked my disagreement with your statement that “millions will not die” earlier this year. According to stats we are half way there, one million dead already. I am pretty sure another million will clock in before this is over. I am not a panicking dude, I just had more time in February to research the subject in depth because I did not spend all my time writing and moderating comments. You also showcased my earlier comment as example of how people are out of their mind. Let’s give it another 6 months and see where the stats are. Anyway, my point was that governments had a choice- either let millions die or ruin the economy. Obviously economy was chosen as the victim. And public finances. And citizen rights and freedoms. And instead of isolating the vulnerable this destructive course continues. That is what my point was about- “millions will not die” either has to be false or has to bear unusually high price on society. And it turns out that we are paying that price, while millions will still die on global scale. Anyway, thanks again, I will definitely miss you when you stop doing what you are doing. Please keep going.

Don’t be too smug yet. On March 3rd you write on this blog: “400 million infected. That number is 13 weeks away should the current trend hold. And that is without taking China into account. So unless this thing has seasonality and summer temperatures dramatically slow the spread, in absence of serious containment efforts worldwide we are looking at “millions” by early June.” Well, it’s almost October and there have been 33.5 million infections globally (not 400 million+) and, sadly, one million fatalities. Everyone should dial back the fear rhetoric. Why don’t you lead by example? – Garth

#168 Fabio on 09.29.20 at 8:45 am

Don’t be too smug yet. On March 3rd you write on this blog: “400 million infected. That number is 13 weeks away should the current trend hold. And that is without taking China into account. So unless this thing has seasonality and summer temperatures dramatically slow the spread, in absence of serious containment efforts worldwide we are looking at “millions” by early June.” Well, it’s almost October and there have been 33.5 million infections globally (not 400 million+) and, sadly, one million fatalities. Everyone should dial back the fear rhetoric. Why don’t you lead by example? – Garth

Covid trends

https://youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac