A time to reap

Get the Tums. It’s autumn.

Stock markets traditionally wobble in September. Then most of the seasonal lows have come in October. In fact, some of the most gut-wrenching moments in financial history have occurred that month. The good news, we always recover.

We will this time, too. But the ride ahead will be a bumpy one. Look at the convergence of factors.

  • In Canada we have epic public debt and a spend-happy federal minority government bent on remaking society, starting Wednesday. Public finances are shot for a generation. Oh boy.
  • Covid’s back. More than half the US states have rising cases. The UK may lockdown again. India, Brazil, Spain. All a mess.
  • Big milestone now. Two hundred thousand virus-related deaths in the States. Six months ago that would have been utterly, unbelievably, fantastically, radically inconceivable. Sunday night US networks were talking about 400,000 victims before we’re done.
  • The American economy is stalling out a bit because Congress can’t get its act together on more stimulus. That logjam will probably be broken, but there’s already $3 trillion in new debt. What a hole.
  • Tech’s too big.  Investors have pumped up the FAANG guys (and others) to the point where large-cap technology companies represent 44% of the entire S&P 500 capitalization. Tech valuations got ahead of themselves. As did Tesla. The RobinHood kids have been pouring gas on everything. Big pullback was inevitable.
  • No vaccine timetable yet. Normal isn’t coming back for a long time.
  • And the presidential election. The fight over replacing RBG. Worries that the outcome will not be known for weeks, maybe months. Court challenges, and the kind of uncertainty that markets hate.

Mix in trade disputes, international money laundering, the collapse of global travel and tourism plus hardened borders and a sudden drop in immigration, and you get this – wild days on the markets, especially as we head into the November 3rd balloting.

By the way, here’s some new polling, with odds for the Presidential winner averaged between PredictIt, FTX.com and Betfair. It looks like a Biden sweep. But wait. What if 5,000 pickup trucks with rebel flags arrive in Washington, circle the White House and form a Trump Freedom Guard?

That’s, ah, actually not a joke.

Should you worry?

First, markets are not rooting for Trump or Biden at the moment. Investors care more about stimulus – whether it comes from the Fed or from Congress. So far there’s been enough of it to ensure stocks soared from the depths of Covid despair (March 23rd) to record highs (August). Odds are this will continue for at least the next two years.

Second, Trump’s a known economic factor and Biden is a centrist. There are no radicals here. A Democratic win may in time see higher corporate taxes and more social spending, but it will not result in a socialist tsunami pushing America into depression. Historically markets have actually done better under Democrats than Republicans (68% advance per term vs 52%).

In short, history shows us markets are freaky before every US presidential contest, and rapidly absorb every outcome. How they respond if Covid lasts for years is another matter. As we pass the grim 200,000-dead-Americans milepost, this is clearly affecting investor sentiment.

Buy or sell?

Well, consider the reasonable outcome. President Biden in 2021. Trade war with China tamped down. The US assumes more of a global leadership role – rejoins the WHO, works towards climate change response, drops protectionist measures, stops playing footsy with dictators. A vaccine is finally sanctioned and inoculations begin. That takes two years (at least). Trade, travel, tourism and immigration start to creep back. Corporate profits rebound. Unemployment drops back to single-digit levels. GDP growth leaps ahead after the disaster called 2020. WFH is no longer a thing. Suburban house prices melt a little. In some places, a lot.

During all of this, interest rates stay depressed by central banks, governments continue to spend beyond their means, bond yields languish in the ditch, and equity markets remain the only game in town delivering sustained growth.

Conclusion: ignore it all. If you have a nicely-built portfolio, hands off till January. If, on the other hand, you’re a hopped-up day-trader with big Tesla options or 3x leveraged ETFs, you could try prayer. I hear that works. Sometimes. Ask Trump.

165 comments ↓

#1 Jimmy Zhao on 09.21.20 at 3:43 pm

Money laundering has gotten so big in BC that there is a name for it. ‘The Vancouver Model”

Giant industry in Metro Vancouver. Keeps the economy afloat and real estate prices high.

#2 C V on 09.21.20 at 3:46 pm

Correct me if I’m wrong but Dems=no keystone pipeline, so that is possibly something to worry about

#3 Yukon Elvis on 09.21.20 at 3:47 pm

By the way, here’s some new polling, with odds for the Presidential winner averaged between PredictIt, FTX.com and Betfair. It looks like a Biden sweep.
……………………….

I will bet u a bag of mice that Trump wins.

#4 Doc on 09.21.20 at 3:53 pm

“By the twitching of my thumb, something wicked this way comes”. I think it is time to come out of retirement and get a part time job; sounds like it might be best to stop taking funds from the nestegg. A job is likely the best strategy to reduce anxiety about the future and these strange markets . I keep expecting Rod Sterling to appear and tell me this is just an extended episode of The Twilight Zone.

#5 Fragrant Cookie on 09.21.20 at 3:54 pm

Reading your description of the “reasonable outcome” puts my mind at ease. If only just for a few minutes. How I wish I could just go to bed and wake up 2 years later when the world (hopefully) is restored back to normal (or sometime close to your description). But alas, I must stay awake, make a bunch of, probably life-altering, decisions despite all the uncertainties…and hope for the best.

#6 27leafs99 on 09.21.20 at 3:55 pm

A numbskull that’s campaigning out of his basement, who hasn’t accomplished anything is 47 years of politics except filling his pockets with taxpayer money and hasn’t issued a believable platform ever, is going to beat Trump?
Right Mr. Turner. Are you being sucked in by the 24hr, 365 hate machine?

#7 WestCoaster on 09.21.20 at 3:55 pm

Throw in BC gov, just announced a snap election.OCT 24TH.

Crazy times we are in

#8 Attrition on 09.21.20 at 3:57 pm


Well, consider the reasonable outcome. President Biden in 2021. Trade war with China tamped down. The US assumes more of a global leadership role – rejoins the WHO, works towards climate change response, drops protectionist measures, stops playing footsy with dictators. A vaccine is finally sanctioned and inoculations begin. That takes two years (at least). Trade, travel, tourism and immigration start to creep back. Corporate profits rebound. Unemployment drops back to single-digit levels. GDP growth leaps ahead after the disaster called 2020. WFH is no longer a thing. Suburban house prices melt a little. In some places, a lot.

Oooooorrrr…..

President Trump in 2021. Polls proved wrong yet again. Trade war with China ended when the corrupt Communist regime admits defeat. The US assumes more of a global leadership role by protecting it’s citizens from the lying, Communist-infiltrated WHO and UN, works towards climate change science based on science and not fear mongering to prove global warming caused by plant food is a complete lie, increases protectionist measures to bring jobs home, continues to play hardball with dictators as the Trump admin has done, and continues to bring peace to the middle east.

A vaccine is finally sanctioned and inoculations begin as they’ve been done in Russia since August (what, the entire world ignores Russia, with some of the greatest scientific and medical minds, already announced a vaccine?). That takes 6-12 months. Trade, travel, tourism and immigration start to creep back. Corporate profits rebound. Unemployment drops back to single-digit levels. GDP growth leaps ahead after the disaster called 2020. WFH is still a thing, but just so 2020. Suburban house prices melt a little. In some places, a lot. In other places, they continue upwards. Condos recover.

#9 Andrewski on 09.21.20 at 3:59 pm

Just read that BC has called for an election in October. What will that mean for Westcoaster’s?

Apparently there’s concern that RE prices are heading down.

https://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/shortterm-real-estate-prices-in-canada-to-be-flat-to-ten-percent-lower–lowestrates-ceo-333468.aspx?utm_source=GA&utm_medium=20200921&utm_campaign=WPCW-Newsletter-20200921&utm_content=708606F6-5BE0-481F-9A9A-EC7E25C236A1&tu=708606F6-5BE0-481F-9A9A-EC7E25C236A1

#10 Ace Goodheart on 09.21.20 at 3:59 pm

Comrade Horgan just called a snap election.

And so it begins….

#11 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.21.20 at 4:00 pm

Best bet – spend a few hours studying to earn your real estate license.

Become a SHYSTER!

Because real estate always goes up. You’ll make millions!

#12 TurnerNation on 09.21.20 at 4:04 pm

The future? Government towns with approved government businesses only? I think they call these UN Smart Cities.

Toronto downtown has been peppered by Penguin Pickup locations. Amzn and WMT deliveries among others. New. How’d they know.

https://www.penguinpickup.com/

They sold us hard on Ghost Kitchens and food delivery last year. How’d they know.

https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/industrial/amazon-1500-new-last-mile-warehouses-cities-suburbs-walmart-arms-race-105983?

Amazon To Build 1,500 New Last-Mile Warehouses In Arms Race With Walmart

Amazon could be looking to add comprehensive last-mile warehouse coverage to major markets on a heretofore unheard-of scale. Having largely recovered from the shipping delays precipitated by the outbreak of the coronavirus, Amazon is on a quest to open as many as 1,500 smaller-format distribution centers in urban and suburban markets, Bloomberg reports. Called “delivery stations,” these 200K SF facilities would be around a quarter of the average size of Amazon’s “fulfillment centers” that tend to be in more traditional industrial areas. Amazon’s real estate frenzy is already well underway, and it goes beyond distribution centers. In September alone, the company estimates it will open 100 new facilities, between warehouses, offices, data centers and retail concepts

#13 Rainman on 09.21.20 at 4:05 pm

Nice to be diversified in both the market and real estate. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

#14 Baba Novac on 09.21.20 at 4:06 pm

Thanks, Garth, for the voice of reason and calm!

#15 KNOW IT ALL on 09.21.20 at 4:06 pm

Read “The Intelligent Investor” by Benj Graham.

Price is what you pay – Value is what you get.

BUY low, SELL High.

#16 Catalyst on 09.21.20 at 4:07 pm

Was on a call with your bro Benny T. He is starting to sound like zero hedge. He called for $2400-$2500 gold range next year.

More shockingly, he divulged that the government has secretly been annointing 40+ yr amortizations where home owners squawk they can’t pay. Given them any amortization that makes the monthly work he says. Scary stuff. Hard to see how we can correct this housing madness with such accomodative rates & policies but wow ‘this won’t end well’ (TM GT).

#17 Recently Retired on 09.21.20 at 4:09 pm

What about those that just sold their house and have a new pile to invest.

Wait or jump now?

#18 Smoking Man's #1 fan on 09.21.20 at 4:11 pm

First!

#19 Suhail on 09.21.20 at 4:16 pm

Dog has a big ego!!

#20 Baba Novac on 09.21.20 at 4:19 pm

Also, Garth, I meant to ask you a week or so ago when you posted about the model portfolio’s safest component of the fixed allocation: bond ETFs (12% gov., 11% corp. i.g., 3% high-yield) currently pay 2.86% for yield. I suspect this also has some of the CAD-hedged global bond fund your Ferrari-driving/suspender-wearing managers favour(ed).

10-yr GICs pay about the same interest, are not liquid, but are guaranteed (i.e. CDIC).

I’ll stipulate that tax is not a factor (in a registered account). If liquidity is not needed , is the bonds’ potential to “shock absorb” SUFFICIENT to justify holding bonds as the safest part of the portfolio compared to a similar yielding GIC?

Even a one-liner stinging rebuke would be appreciated… :)

#21 Learn2investkid.com on 09.21.20 at 4:20 pm

“ Tech’s too big. Investors have pumped up the FAANG guys (and others) to the point where large-cap technology companies represent 44% of the entire S&P 500 capitalization.”

Garth, did you include companies such as Tesla, Oracle, Salesforce and Nvidia to arrive at 44%? Everything I have read states that Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Microsoft make up about 30% of the S&P 500 index.

#22 Steve Chapman on 09.21.20 at 4:22 pm

Everyone believes that retail investors (the Robin Hooders) are driving stock prices and that simply isn’t true. All the money that’s out there in the capital markets is 75/25 institutional/retail at BEST. Also most retail investors have a huge chunk of their cash in mutual funds or index funds. Yes there are some folks swinging around 10k-100k on stocks like tesla but that amounts to a rounding error in the grand scheme of things. At best the algo’s are picking up on retail money and driving fomo so they can bet against retail investors.

Think of it like this. If I’m the best hedge fund in the world and you put 6 other top hedge funds at my poker table we can’t actually take money from each other using skill. We’re too equally matched. There’s an element of luck and luck will account for most of the gains vs skill. However you bring in dumb/retail money now there’s some very easy money to be made. In a zero sum game like investing the smart money is there to take dumb money. Two Sigma, DE Shaw and Renaissance can keep the market afloat for days on their own regardless of what’s happening in the real world. That’s 3 algo funds. Now imagine what 10 can do, or 100 can do, or 1000.

Buying and holding doesn’t move stocks, only trading does and retail investors can’t trade anywhere near as fast as the algo’s are (thousands upon thousands of trades per second).
This is an unpopular opinion but I’ve been around a long time and seen a lot.

Tesla will have its day, OR it will grow into its evaluation. Either way it amounts to a long period of time with sub optimal gains.
When a valuation of a company has the next 10-20 years of growth priced in and at a level that requires flawless manufacturing excellence with no possible set backs what usually happens? Think weed stocks or 2001 tech stocks. Eventually the music will stop and retail will be left holding the bag.

#23 Inequity on 09.21.20 at 4:25 pm

#1 C V

Keystone is good for the US… bad for Canada and Canadian Jobs.
It does is add another big pipeline to get Canadian crude to the US (at below market prices)… and they ship it right to the gulf coast creating more US jobs in refining.

We are still better to refine it here in Canada and ship it to markets that are willing to pay market prices.

Its a mystery why any Canadian Politician would support cutting Canadian Jobs AND getting paid below market price for our resources.

#24 Dolce Vita on 09.21.20 at 4:27 pm

“The UK may lockdown again”

Garth they’re in partial lockdown of 12 million people tomorrow all over the UK. Their cases are soaring and confusion with that:

ONS today: 6000 new case/day (data 7-10 days old, their StatCan)

Their Zoe contact, cases app: 11,876

“Official” Gov UK = 3389

It’s gone nuts there. Do not know why?

————————-

Spain partially locking down more bits and pieces today and that would be Madrid which has some parts with > 600 cases/100K !

Funny thing, today the Madrid cops trying to figure out where the “imaginary” Madrid neighborhood lines are on a map to enforce the lockdown areas (as in the Best Laid Plans of Mice and Men).

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-09-20/no-es-solo-madrid-el-coronavirus-golpea-las-areas-metropolitanas-en-la-segunda-ola.html

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-09-21/confusion-el-primer-dia-de-restricciones-en-madrid-esto-me-sirve-para-pasar.html?ssm=TW_CM

————————-

…and then there is France, with half the country in a Red Zone:

“Une zone de circulation active du virus se caractérise principalement par un taux d’incidence supérieur à 50 pour 100 000 habitants et une dynamique épidémique défavorable.”

https://solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/soins-et-maladies/maladies/maladies-infectieuses/coronavirus/etat-des-lieux-et-actualites/article/indicateurs-de-l-activite-epidemique

————————-

Damn that virus and the effect it is having on major World economies.

PS: Italia cases down the past few days, 1350 today and Deutschland Rt dropped from 1.21 to a shade over 1.0…not all bad news from Europe.

#25 UBI Please on 09.21.20 at 4:29 pm

Or just wait for UBI to start and don’t worry about anything. Simple.

#26 AGuyInVancouver on 09.21.20 at 4:31 pm

#6 27leafs99 on 09.21.20 at 3:55 pm
A numbskull that’s campaigning out of his basement, who hasn’t accomplished anything is 47 years of politics except filling his pockets with taxpayer money and hasn’t issued a believable platform ever, is going to beat Trump?
Right Mr. Turner. Are you being sucked in by the 24hr, 365 hate machine?
_ _ _

Please, call us when you get a grip on reality.

#27 Stealth on 09.21.20 at 4:35 pm

Garth, in your polling screenshot Why is Harris listed separately from Biden?
Is it because Biden will handoff presidency to Harris after the win?

Not my poll. Presumably she was the first choice of some respondents. – Garth

#28 Oracle of Ottawa on 09.21.20 at 4:41 pm

I’ve seen this sell off happen almost by schedule every September. It seems like the big players (Morgan Stanley et al) come back from Summer correct the markets and buy low to show how well they performed by the end of the year. Buy now, collect dividends and repeat next September and you’ll do just fine.

#29 TurnerNation on 09.21.20 at 4:42 pm

^ oh PP is owned by the REIT – SRU.UN. Big box takeover. Dovetailing the small business shut down.

Smart Centres. UN Smart City. Perfect fit.
How’d they kn…nevermind.

http://www.penguinpickup.com

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SmartCentres
The fundamental success principle of SmartCentres is to lead retail trends by truly understanding how consumers behave. Through creating cobranded Penguin Pickup with Walmart at a lot of the SmartCentres locations, it has become the leader of merging Bricks & Mortar and e-commerce. The success of this business model is fuelling future growth for the corporation.

#30 Dolce Vita on 09.21.20 at 4:45 pm

And again, not all bad news in Europe…

Who knew you could ACTUALLY vote for LESS GOVERNMENT?

Well Italia just did that in their referendum over the past 2 days:

“Reduce the number of MPs in the Parliament, from 630 to 400 in the Chamber of Deputies and from 315 to 200 in the Senate.”

Si = 68.1%
No = 31.9%

as of 1634 h CET today from RAI tg1.

The Italian people tired of that annoying suckling sound coming from their hind teet. Did something about it. Nice.

#31 DON on 09.21.20 at 4:45 pm

On the weekend there was a shooting. The alleged money laundering in Vancouver was shot at a restaurant and scene of a past shooting. Someone wanted to shut him up…he survived the shooting…his friend didn’t. Money laundering and the fallout into the public.

#32 Moses71 on 09.21.20 at 4:46 pm

Re: #1-“Vancouver Model”
That’s funny because I read Alberta had more money laundering vs BC. Yet Calgary & Edmonton prices are in the ditch.
Go figure..

Money laundering = high house prices = myth. – Garth

#33 Inequity on 09.21.20 at 4:50 pm

#25 UBI Please

Only the lazy think it is good to turn Canada into a welfare state.

#34 Oakville Rocks! on 09.21.20 at 4:54 pm

@#8 Pravda and Russian trolls approve this comment…

common sense and reality not so much.

Russia has just now entered stage 3 clinical trials of their vaccine Sputnik V. Very few people in Russia have received this vaccine and very few doses have been distributed.

Sputnik V like the vaccines currently on trial from Moderna and Pfizer requires that they be kept at a temperature of -80C right up until the time they are injected. This is not normal and it will be a logistical and production nightmare that everyone is working to solve. Dry ice and specialty medical freezers will be in demand and their lack of availability will impact the distribution of these vaccines.

(reference: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/19/world/europe/russia-coronavirus-vaccine.html)

Most vaccines simply require refrigeration and in fact freezing can mean the destruction of a vaccine.

Vaccines currently in development from Astra Zeneca and Jannsen require already familiar handling procedures and temperature.

Just because Putin says something is so, does not make it true. Sort of like his number one fanboy Trump.

#35 Danger Dan on 09.21.20 at 4:54 pm

I would like to refute the suggestion Biden is a centrist politician. As far as I can tell, all of his social policies are borrowed verbatim from Bernie Sanders. He also seems about as senile now as G.W. was by the end of his second term.

How can this possibly be a democracy when people are expected to vote for an obvious puppet figureheading a party that is being funded largely by technocrats like Soros and Bezos and an assorted coterie of Wall Street hedge fund magnates who have made millions by ensuring the common man gets screwed over by regulatory capture created by their lobbying?

This is all a sick joke. Who wants to invest in an economy run by antisocial psychopaths? I wouldn’t shake hands with these people let alone give them custody of my money.

Please tell us that was sarcasm. Nobody can believe all that in three sentences. – Garth

#36 Re-Cowtown on 09.21.20 at 4:54 pm

#10 Ace Goodheart on 09.21.20 at 3:59 pm
Comrade Horgan just called a snap election.

And so it begins….

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Thank Dog.

The last few years in BC have been Alberta’s waking nightmare as the NDP turned cartwheels to suck up to the Greens. I can’t stand Horgan, but anything is better than what Horgan was forced to do to appease his Green dog collar pullers.

#37 akashic record on 09.21.20 at 4:54 pm

What if 5,000 pickup trucks with rebel flags arrive in Washington, circle the White House and form a Trump Freedom Guard?
That’s, ah, actually not a joke.

Source?

You just read it. Like Fox News, but without the babes. – Garth

#38 Aldous Huxley on 09.21.20 at 4:56 pm

And if Trump wins, then what????

Four more years of inexistent “”pandemic”‘??

Second wave is a joke, pure political posturing at this moment, as this British paper quoting Oxford scientists is mentioning!! The best part testing people for Covid when in fact they have a common flu…looool

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8751389/Oxford-scientists-circuit-break-need-cycle-bad-data-bad-science.html

#39 mike from mtl on 09.21.20 at 4:56 pm

Dunno, from memory 2017 election, despite all the requisite media hoopla was nothing special for the markets.

Now this whole virus thing IS a problem. There is no ‘second wave’, it’s the same one, just different targets. We have a casedemic now, right but that is not really translating into serious hospitalisations or worse. The lockdowns the first time around didn’t stop anyway. A second time will result in a full blown depression no joke. No-one will trust future anymore and so goes round and round.

Heaven help the SMB that need public interaction – put the keys in the mailbox and call it quits.

#40 Scott in Gibsons on 09.21.20 at 4:59 pm

Trump will win unless the Dems can produce enough mail in ballots in the days and weeks following the election. Expect 110% voter turnout for this one……

#41 Comrade on 09.21.20 at 5:02 pm

Just when I thought that government had my best interest in mind and COVID was health issue only, not political one. PM Horgan announces snap elections in BC, this October.

#42 AM in MN on 09.21.20 at 5:04 pm

Trump takes MN, WI, PA, NH, NC, FL….

Without PA there is no path for Biden.

Amy Barret gets on the court, and life goes on for those who enjoy constitutional protections for rule of law and private property rights.

The left freakout over SCOTUS causes many Catholic women in the above states to revolt…and vote Trump.

The biggest risk to the markets of a Biden win will be the Fed having to print another $2T to bail out the blue states and their govt. employee pension funds. Welcome to Argentina.

Ignore the “market does well under Dems” mantra. Under Clinton it had an R house that controlled spending and brought in welfare reform, adding 14M people to the workforce. Under Obama the measurement starts from a low point, caused by Bush and his cronies pushing home ownership on people who shouldn’t have owned homes, a one-off circumstance.

#43 yvr_lurker on 09.21.20 at 5:13 pm

In my view, this NDP cohort has provided the best Gov’t and leadership that BC has had since I have been of voting age. Investigating origins of money laundering and following to a very large extent the platform they had put forth. Perfectly worthy of a second term.

#44 Dolce Vita on 09.21.20 at 5:13 pm

UK levity Virus Porn from my favorite The Daily Star (where its 10p cheaper than The Sun and a lot more fun) – and ya, Boris went on a grouse hunt with 28 of his mates violating the “6 Mate Rule”:

https://i.imgur.com/CUGIeNc.png

Inglesi…

#45 R on 09.21.20 at 5:14 pm

Battery Day tomorrow. This will looked back upon as the day the Paradigm shifted.

#46 TheDood on 09.21.20 at 5:17 pm

#6 27leafs99 on 09.21.20 at 3:55 pm
A numbskull that’s campaigning out of his basement, who hasn’t accomplished anything is 47 years of politics except filling his pockets with taxpayer money and hasn’t issued a believable platform ever, is going to beat Trump?
Right Mr. Turner. Are you being sucked in by the 24hr, 365 hate machine?
————————————————————

Trump has already handed the election to his counterpart. It doesn’t matter who is running against him.

#47 Brian Ripley on 09.21.20 at 5:21 pm

Regarding my Post yesterday (#48 Brian Ripley on 09.20.20 at 3:51 pm) on the subject of Tax Reform and my suggestion that an automated micro tax on all financial transactions should replace our current excessively complicated system involving massive administrative detail.

#111 Nonplused on 09.20.20 at 7:35 pm #48 Brian Ripley
Normally you are so smart about things. An APT would simply shut down the TSE. We are at peak tax.

Thanks for note Nonplused. I wish I could claim to be smart, but I don’t remember anytime I have thought of myself as such.

“An APT would simply shut down the TSE.” Why?

Land transfer taxes, and all the hidden taxes that are involved in the production and service sectors of housing construction, maintenance and sale have not shut down the real estate industry. Realtors are very busy even with a pandemic at our doorstep.

“We are at peak tax.” Maybe, but I doubt it.

But that is my point. An automated micro-tax on all financial transactions would reduce the amount that we individuals would pay because an APT would spread out the burden of revenue that our governments have to raise to supply the social contract we expect from them.

The equities and fixed income markets which generate large scale financial transactions should definitely be taxed.

I suspect hardly anyone has actually read on considered my post on the APT in full… here it is:
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/tech-talent-and-real-estate
and
http://www.chpc.biz/uploads/9/7/9/5/9795010/taxation_for_the_21st_century.pdf

Let me see if I can make this more palatable:

Feige’s study of the U.S. economic data of late 1990’s and early 2000’s showed that to generate a revenue neutral tax would be less than 2% per transaction (split 50/50 between the two sides of the transaction). So let’s say in Canada we would need 4% (split 50/50)

Your income is $100,000/yr
Your expenses are $80,000/yr
You Invest $20,000/yr

Your total annual tax on income would be $2,000 (2%)
Your total annual tax on expenses would be $1,600 (2%)
Your Investment purchase would be $400 (2%)

Total Tax = $3,600 (2%) on $200,000 of transaction activity
Your net income would be $20,000 less $3,600 (2%) = $16,400

$16,400 (or 16.4%/yr) is the Return on Investment of your time and labour to produce $100,000 in income.

And no tax forms to file… the transaction tx would happen right at the source and be credited to government accounts.

Your Investment portfolio would include now a book value of $20,000 less $400 2% tax (ie: $19,600 net book value).

If your investment portfolio remains at the same book value by the end of the year then yes it is down to net $19,600 (or 2% loss = trading costs).

But individuals don’t invest to lose capital. And the counsel of Garth and his team is to balance a portfolio and don’t day trade.

To break even on that initial $20,000 portfolio investment one would have to see it’s value rise to +/-$20,409 or 2.05% above the original $20,000 investment.

I think that calculation is correct but maybe I wrong. I’m not sure if the 2% tax on the seller of the stock or bond is taxed on book value ($19,600) or 2% on the receipt of the sale ($20,392). I suggest it would be the buyer of your stock sale that pays 3% on $20,392 and you the seller would pay 2% on the $16,600 value of the stock sold.

In any event, in Canada the middle 40% of Canadian households have less than $100,000 in net worth: http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/household-net-worth

I have tried to figure out what Canada would need in the way to arrive at a revenue neutral micro-tax but I cannot get all the required info from StatCan.

Someone smarter than me should take up the challenge.

#48 paracho on 09.21.20 at 5:22 pm

The vaccine for mumps took 4 plus years from inception to a vaccine . This was and us a world record .
Covid 19 came out of nowhere . It is not fully understood. Easy to make statements that are based on theory and wishes .
Fact is : from the above statistic, it will take a while , lots of hard work , misses , trials and errors before a vaccine is found . It it dies happen in under 4 something years . It would be a new world record .

#49 cramar on 09.21.20 at 5:27 pm

Just catching up on weekend posts. Yesterday’s post quoted some dimwit named Alex.

“I consider anyone who buys a home to be an investor, since I believe the main reason someone chooses to buy a home over renting one is the prospect of untaxed land value and property value (if they do good renos) appreciation.”

You can consider anything you want, but it doesn’t make it true. I bought my first home circa 1975. The current one eight years ago, for the same reason. FOR A PLACE TO LIVE! Got that? Doing so as an investment was not on the radar screen in 1975, nor 2012. The fact that a house appreciates is a bonus. But if it didn’t, I’d still want my house. Why? Freedom! Because renting someone else’s property is not my style. I want to modify, change, improve, and otherwise convert my living quarters and property into something that reflects what I want and who I am. Because it is my dwelling. I cannot do this if someone else owns it!

So what you believe might reflect the millennial generation, but it certainly does not reflect the boomers. I’ve never known a boomer who owns their house because it will appreciate. They all bought them as a place to live.

#50 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 09.21.20 at 5:28 pm

I can’t believe you’re dissing my alll time favourite “play money ” leveraged allocation ( BRZU,YINN, INDL,DVYL ). How else can we get the adrenaline pumping now that the Cosmo LV is closed to us Canadians ?

#51 Linda on 09.21.20 at 5:29 pm

‘Covid is back’. Did it ever actually depart?

A Trump Freedom Guard? Not a joke? So is the motive here to preserve freedom for Americans or is it to try to keep Trump out of jail should he lose the election? Or to keep Biden out of the WH if he wins? Only in America…..

As for markets, could be the wildlife who hibernate have the right idea. Maybe come spring we can emerge & the nightmare will be over:)

#52 The West on 09.21.20 at 5:35 pm

It’s comical that these boards still argue over The Rock or Stone Cold Steve Austin.

Trump will win again. He is the entertainment factor in all of this, the emotional release of a defeated people. While America is burning down in cultural and social collapse (this has been a predictable end since the earyl 80s) Trump is the entertainment that keeps you going.

Watercooler conversation (watch out, that thing has COVID for sure!) but….oh, ya….society has been shut down…

The joke’s on us. Pick your favorite reality TV star. It makes zero difference.

#53 akashic record on 09.21.20 at 5:44 pm

#37 akashic record on 09.21.20 at 4:54 pm

What if 5,000 pickup trucks with rebel flags arrive in Washington, circle the White House and form a Trump Freedom Guard?
That’s, ah, actually not a joke.

Source?

You just read it. Like Fox News, but without the babes. – Garth

Ah… they could declare sanctuary USA with peaceful protest, raising the rebel Stars and Stripes flag.

What’s wrong with babes?

#54 SoggyShorts on 09.21.20 at 5:44 pm

239 The Woosh on 09.21.20 at 3:02 pm
#221 Linda on 09.21.20 at 11:04 am
#140 ‘Soggy’ – Agreed. If more taxation is applied, the simple solution as proposed in your post would be best. I like the concept that period of ownership would reduce the tax hit.

—————————————————

So, if I hold my stocks for a certain amount of time I’ll pay less capital gains. Bahahahahahaha! Oh, that was rich!
**********
“Whoosh” is a good name as the discussion seems to have go e over your head.
Capital gains on housing should be different than on stocks because the motivation is different.

We tax capital gains on stocks at 50% to encourage investment.
We should tax capital gains on a house at 100% the first year to DIScourage flippers, and then less than 100% after x years to not be punitive.

#55 Piano_Man87 on 09.21.20 at 5:45 pm

I have to say, Trump’s 3rd term is probably going to be his best.

#56 The real Kip (Ret) on 09.21.20 at 5:48 pm

Yea, looks like Jay Powell and Munchkin are gonna have to roll back the trillion dollar stimulus cheques. That’s gotta hurt. How are they going to reflate markets now?

#57 Steven Nicolle on 09.21.20 at 5:58 pm

As this virus lingers people are going to start to rebel against doing the minimum like wearing mask. As this virus infiltrates into the population more people who are carriers but do not have symptoms will spread this like crazy. Telling people if they do not have symptoms but think they may have been in a questionable environment not to bother to get tested is a mistake. This tells me we really do not have testing capacity to handle what is coming. The second wave is going to be huge. The first wave was nothing because we shut down everything. Not this time. In Canada we will have many more infected and deaths coming. A vaccine may not even be effective or available for a few years anyway.

#58 Kim Jong T2 on 09.21.20 at 6:05 pm

DELETED

#59 lifeisgood on 09.21.20 at 6:05 pm

Trump will win with a bigger margin then 2016, IMO.
Polls are as good as they were in 2016 (HRClinton, 95% chance of winning, lol) !
My 2 cents .

#60 Shawn on 09.21.20 at 6:06 pm

Today seemed like the “stay at home” theme is alive and well. Perhaps ready to accelerate? Oh oh.

That’s bad news for the TSX, emerging markets, Europe and cyclicals in general.

#61 Long-Time Lurker on 09.21.20 at 6:09 pm

>…and to think I came here to relax. Ah, well.

The deadly viruses that vanished without trace
By Zaria Gorvett
20th September 2020

Scientists are only just starting to unravel why some viruses disappear, while others can linger and cause disease for centuries…

…Secondly, certain virus strains, like the types of Covid-19 – of which there are already at least six – might amass enough mutations that are harmful to themselves so that they disappear altogether. In India, there’s already evidence that this could be happening naturally. The virus is mutating at a staggering pace, and it’s been suggested that it might be heading for an evolutionary cliff all on its own….

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200918-why-some-deadly-viruses-vanish-and-go-extinct

#62 Long-Time Lurker on 09.21.20 at 6:14 pm

>Research suggests that Covid-19 (Wuhan-400) attacks the body’s immune system (like HIV/AIDS). Therefore, it is imperative that early treatment with an anti-viral (Louie Gohmert’s) protocol be administered before the body’s immune system gets shut down and serious conditions occur. Yes, I wrote that myself.

Researchers discover how COVID-19 may trigger fatal levels of lung inflammation
by Boston University School of Medicine

…According to the researchers, the inflammatory signals initiated by the infected pneumocytes attract an army of immune cells into lung tissue laden with infected and already dead and dying cells. “Our data confirms that SARS-CoV-2 blocks cells from activating one of the anti-viral branches of the immune system early on after infection has set in. The signal the cells would typically send out, a tiny protein called interferon that they exude under threat of disease, are instead delayed for several days, giving SARS-CoV-2 plenty of time to spread and kill cells, triggering a buildup of dead cell debris and other inflammation,” added Kotton….

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-covid-trigger-fatal-lung-inflammation.html

#63 the Jaguar on 09.21.20 at 6:18 pm

“In about a week we’re going to learn a whole lot more of Vice President Biden’s unfitness for office, “said Wisconsin Republican Ron Johnson as he prepares to complete his Senate investigation into Joe Biden and the Ukraine.
“What our investigations are uncovering, I think, will reveal that this is not somebody that we should be electing president of the United States.”

Here’s the video of Biden bragging about getting the lawyer sacked who was investigating his son’s activities in Ukraine for those who may have missed it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXA–dj2-CY

Oh boy. And that’s without the John Durham Report which is supposed to have more names than Xaviera Hollander’s ‘Little Black Book’. Mercy.

Oh well. He’s not my President and it’s not my horse race, but it sure is mesmerizing. Hard to take polls or any North American media seriously. They’re so busy covering their Woke asses they forget all about ‘getting the news story’. If I was so inclined to bet on such a horse race I would have to put my money on ‘Dirty Harry’. After all the burning, looting, shooting, and other fun activities down south during this past ‘Summer of Love’, those Yanks are going to sell their souls for a tough lawman with a Smith and Wesson Model 29. Speaking of Woke, can you still say stuff like this, Garth? (‘Like Fox News, but without the babes. – Garth’)
Maybe check with Dorothy. Don’t consult Fishman.

#64 Joseph R. on 09.21.20 at 6:26 pm

#35 Danger Dan on 09.21.20 at 4:54 pm

Please tell us that was sarcasm. Nobody can believe all that in three sentences. – Garth

———————————————————-

Unfortunately Garth, people who post comments, such as the one you are commenting on, are serious about it. When confronted with it, they MAY state is was all a joke. However, there is no fouling anyone else: they were serious when they wrote it.

There is a term for that behaviour:

Schrodinger’s Douchebag

“One who makes downright offensive statements, particularly sexist, racist or otherwise bigoted ones, then decides whether they were “just joking” or dead serious based on whether other people in the group approve or not.”

#65 Ace Goodheart on 09.21.20 at 6:28 pm

So it looks like this winter won’t be such a drag after all:

https://www.gocuba.ca/news-view/cuba-covid-19-update/

Now if they could just fix the ridiculous 14 day quarantine requirement in Canada. I mean, just give a test at the airport, and re-test in two days. That catches everyone anyway.

We are so backwards here.

Cuba, here I come!

#66 islander on 09.21.20 at 6:32 pm

Worried about your health while voting in BC? – sign up to vote by mail. No excuses! Stay in and vote.

https://elections.bc.ca/voting/how-to-vote-by-mail/

#67 Do we have all the facts on 09.21.20 at 6:34 pm

#16 Catalyst

The GOC tried 40 year amortization, zero down payments, and interest only for the first ten years in 2006 with less than desirable results. The mortgage rates were 7.0% back then so the impact on monthly debt service costs were more significant.

Since 2006 the GOC has reverted to a maximum amortization period of 25 years for insured mortgages and has increased several factors in their stress tests to assure that citizens do not assume unreasonable amounts of long term debt. It is doubtful that any responsible government would revert to such a flawed idea as 40 year amortization.

Siphoning thousands of dollars of added interest out of the economy over an additional 15 years is a very very bad idea.

#68 Harris for Prezident on 09.21.20 at 6:37 pm

maybe tell some of the people here to wear a mask so we can get the over and done with.

#69 Long-Time Lurker on 09.21.20 at 6:43 pm

I forgot to add Zinc to the Louie Gohmert treatment protocol.

#70 FreeBird on 09.21.20 at 7:06 pm

Hopefully any new vaccine won’t be released unless/until a few large, well designed, independent third party studies have been done to show both efficacy and safety and made avail to public for informed consent (we still have that.) Past flu vaccines have been lacking.

Cochrane group reviews on past flu vaccines and new standards for review:

https://www.cochrane.org/news/featured-review-three-updated-cochrane-reviews-assessing-effectiveness-influenza-vaccines

#71 Flop... on 09.21.20 at 7:18 pm

Yesterday’s post by Garth cost me $20 bucks, as I bet Mrs Flop he was going to do a post about John Turner.

I’ll find a way to embed the 20 bucks into her TFSA management fee, that she has me handle, so she can keep up with the Kardashians.

This howmuch post touches on one thing the Gaffer of this blog has been yammering on about, how cities drive the economy and will come back.

I guess if there’s a surprise in the list for me, maybe number 10 Atlanta.

It’s on my travel list.

Just gonna wait for my special sunglasses to arrive in the mail that will block out the CNN logo…

M46BC

Visualizing the Richest Cities in the US.

“It’s no secret the US economy is powered by cities. The coronavirus forced several major metro areas into lockdowns, halting all nonessential in-person activities and sending unemployment to historic highs. With many states now reconsidering lockdowns, we thought it would be time to measure just how important American cities are to the national GDP.”

Top 10 Richest Cities in the US – GDP by Metro Area

1. New York: $1.77T
2. Los Angeles: $1.05T
3. Chicago: $689B
4. San Francisco: $549B
5. Washington, DC: $541B
6. Dallas: $513B
7. Houston: $479B
8. Boston: $464B
9. Philadelphia: $444B
10. Atlanta: $397B

https://howmuch.net/articles/richest-cities-in-the-us

#72 FreeBird on 09.21.20 at 7:20 pm

For a break from political theatrics and virus craziness a good series for dog (and cat) lovers.

Noel Fitzpatrick Super Vet. If you’re aware of UK’s celeb gardener Monty Don whose golden he saved from a broken back. Incredible what he does. Get kleenex out. Episode all about bionics:

https://youtu.be/VOAUdNGW5Wk

#73 willworkforpickles on 09.21.20 at 7:24 pm

A long list of if’s, but only if’s as alluded to by our author.
I believe some items on that list of only come what may conditions may unfold and others will not come to pass.
The upcoming toxic US election outcome devolving into a war is pretty much a given.
Biden may not withstand the pressure health-wise (I’m willing to bet he won’t)… over a long drawn out process to determine a winner at about a 50/50 chance of defeating Trump, with Kamala Harris becoming US president if he does.
Many many if’s.
Uncertainty filled with if’s are/will be a Trump legacy as i said here 4 years ago before he was elected….The only thing certain with Trump is uncertainty.

#74 Nonplused on 09.21.20 at 7:33 pm

“By the way, here’s some new polling, with odds for the Presidential winner averaged between PredictIt, FTX.com and Betfair. It looks like a Biden sweep. But wait. What if 5,000 pickup trucks with rebel flags arrive in Washington, circle the White House and form a Trump Freedom Guard?

That’s, ah, actually not a joke.”

If Biden wins in the end, there is no mechanism by which Trump can stay president. Any argument to the contrary is just fake news.

As for polls…. Well they had Hillary by a landslide going in to 2016 too. But this is 2020 so anything can happen.

As for Biden being a centrist, it doesn’t really matter. He is just a Manchurian candidate. He can’t even remember where he is half the time. He won’t be making any policies, just signing them.

The thing to watch this coming weekend will be who Trump nominates to the supreme court, which he can and will do. He’s president until Jan. 20th whether he wins a second term or not, so it is one of his constitutionally mandated responsibilities. Whether his nomination passes the senate before Nov. 3 or Jan. 20 or at all is another question.

And there is nothing in the constitution that says court positions can’t be filled in the last year of a president’s term. Plenty of presidents have or have tried to do it before, including Obama (although his nomination did not pass the senate). So all this stuff about Trump not being able to put forth a candidate this close to an election is more fake news. But it is not clear he will get it through the senate even though the Republicans have a majority there.

And there will be close to nothing Pelosi et. al. will be able to do about it, because the house doesn’t have a say in such manners. She’ll probably try another impeachment but I don’t know what the charge will be. “The president is hereby impeached for fulfilling his constitutionally delegated duties but we didn’t like him doing that at this time.” Trump is probably right though, if she tries it the Republicans will win all three branches.

So don’t count Trump out just yet. He didn’t win last time so much as Hillary lost and the Dems look set for a big repeat.

I thought you were above such mindless ad hominem statements like this: “He can’t even remember where he is half the time.“ Apparently I was wrong. – Garth

#75 not 1st on 09.21.20 at 7:49 pm

The amish just had a rally for Trump complete with horses and buggies.

How many campaign stops has Biden made not counting his basement?

Those polls are MSM fantasy.

I know it’s tough for Trumpers, but try to rise above just trashing other people. You are dragging this blog down, which is an achievement. – Garth

#76 Nonplused on 09.21.20 at 7:53 pm

#23 Inequity on 09.21.20 at 4:25 pm
#1 C V

Keystone is good for the US… bad for Canada and Canadian Jobs.
It does is add another big pipeline to get Canadian crude to the US (at below market prices)… and they ship it right to the gulf coast creating more US jobs in refining.

We are still better to refine it here in Canada and ship it to markets that are willing to pay market prices.

Its a mystery why any Canadian Politician would support cutting Canadian Jobs AND getting paid below market price for our resources.

———————————-

Umm, the reason Canadian crude trades below WTI is because there are not enough pipelines. Also factoring in is that bitumen isn’t worth as much as lighter grades because it has to be upgraded to get the good stuff out. But there are upgraders here.

And refining it here is not the way any oil market works anywhere. You put the refineries close to the market. Some product pipelines like Trans Mountain make sense but generally they are small diameter and relatively short. Otherwise you’d think the Saudis would be thinking to build their own refineries too, but they don’t. Well, they do, but for their own internal market.

Sometimes things are the way they are for reasons.

#77 not 1st on 09.21.20 at 7:54 pm

#66 islander on 09.21.20 at 6:32 pm
—–

Are you for real out there? Kids are in school, walmart and costco open, liquor, pot stores all selling and you wont visit a polling station in person to exercise your god given right?

You deserve another 4 yrs of comrade Horgan.

#78 Nonplused on 09.21.20 at 8:07 pm

“I thought you were above such mindless ad hominem statements like this: “He can’t even remember where he is half the time.“ Apparently I was wrong. – Garth”

Apparently. Anyway I am not the only one who has noticed that Biden is struggling. This can happen as one ages and is not his fault, we have all watched it happen to our loved ones. And he is on video forgetting where he was. And putting a “million” behind covid deaths where a “thousand” belongs. He’s a gaff machine. I don’t mean anything “ad-hominem” against the man, he has a long career of service, but sometimes it is best to retire. I think Trump is too old to be president too, but at least he still has his wits about him, for now. Whether that will be the case as we approach 2024 is anyone’s guess.

In a sane world, both Trump and Biden would just retire.

#79 Drinking on 09.21.20 at 8:11 pm

My take on this is just to put Trump stickers on rioters vehicles and watch them battle the hell out of one another! Just bring out the popcorn and enjoy yourselves during this winter; it could not possibly (well maybe) get any crazier then what we have been through in the past year!! :)

#80 Big Mie on 09.21.20 at 8:15 pm

DELETED

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.21.20 at 8:17 pm

@#30 Dolce
“Who knew you could ACTUALLY vote for LESS GOVERNMENT?

Well Italia just did that in their referendum over the past 2 days:

“Reduce the number of MPs in the Parliament, from 630 to 400 in the Chamber of Deputies and from 315 to 200 in the Senate.”

++++

At this very moment ….
I am very jealous of the Italian people.
Fewer politicians.
Well done.

#82 Vanreal on 09.21.20 at 8:18 pm

Let’s hope BC boots the NDP out of office. If they get a majority then communism here we come!

#83 Dog Breath on 09.21.20 at 8:26 pm

DELETED

#84 Flop... on 09.21.20 at 8:36 pm

Hard to see the NDP losing the next election in B.C.

I’ve stated on here before that I believe the B.C Liberals made a massive mistake by allowing Andrew Wilkinson to take charge of the party after the last election.

The dude was born in Australia, that should have been strike one.

He alienated a portion of the province when he referred to renting as a “whacky time of life” in a place where many will rent for life.

I thought former Minister of Transportation, Todd Stone, might have been a better bet.

I might stay out of it this time and let my fellow citizens decide.

I voted NDP last time, as a vote against corruption, as I felt like the province had become too dirty and needed a power wash.

I think Uncle Crowdie did a similar thing, but then he took it too far and voted for Trudeau as well.

Talk about getting carried away…

M46BC

#85 Mr Canada on 09.21.20 at 8:46 pm

As the sole person in the office pool that predicted a Trump win at 300 electoral college votes in 2016 (and was roundly mocked prior to his win), this race will be tighter but Trump will prevail similar to a Bush Jr win in 2000…why? Because his quiet yet reliable base in the swing states will actually show up and vote, plus a couple unexpected blue states fed up with the democrats will flip to his side to offset any other losses for the eventual win.

#86 Catalyst on 09.21.20 at 9:00 pm

@#67 ‘It is doubtful that any responsible government would revert to such a flawed idea as 40 year amortization.’

I’m just reporting that it is indeed happening(per benny), but not being reported because they don’t want people to know.

#87 A J on 09.21.20 at 9:03 pm

#6 27leafs99

People have good reason to hate the guy. There’s literally a million reasons to not vote for him. The only thing that will save him are people who are scared out of their wits that ANTIFA are going to commandeer their house for socialist housing and open the border to anyone who has a pulse. It’s nonsensical. Much like your inability to understand why people hate Trumps guts.

#88 Hulk Horgan on 09.21.20 at 9:08 pm

Surprise – snap election for BC.

BC: don’t worry about our spiking COVY numbers province wide.

Get out and vote. Don’t let a little deadly virus spoil the fun.

School outbreaks happening in real time. Wait for the school shutdowns.

#89 SoggyShorts on 09.21.20 at 9:08 pm

#48 paracho on 09.21.20 at 5:22 pm
The vaccine for mumps took 4 plus years from inception to a vaccine . This was and us a world record .
Covid 19 came out of nowhere . It is not fully understood. Easy to make statements that are based on theory and wishes .
Fact is : from the above statistic, it will take a while , lots of hard work , misses , trials and errors before a vaccine is found . It it dies happen in under 4 something years . It would be a new world record .

*************************
Surely we’ve advanced enough in 70 years that we can beat an old record like that?

#90 Westcdn on 09.21.20 at 9:09 pm

Ouch, I got hurt today. Will I give up – in your dreams. Life is what it is, so bring it on. I get smarter taking on risk, nothing like losing to learn.

#91 stoffygirl on 09.21.20 at 9:14 pm

A little off-subject, but a company on Facebook is saying they know how to convert RRSP (RRIF) pyts into TFSA accounts
whereby eliminating the tax liability. Has anyone heard of this?

Scam. – Garth

#92 45north on 09.21.20 at 9:27 pm

Second, Trump’s a known economic factor and Biden is a centrist. There are no radicals here.

Biden is a trojan horse for the radical left.

Well, consider the reasonable outcome. President Biden in 2021. Trade war with China tamped down. The US assumes more of a global leadership role – rejoins the WHO, works towards climate change response, drops protectionist measures, stops playing footsy with dictators. A vaccine is finally sanctioned and inoculations begin. That takes two years (at least). Trade, travel, tourism and immigration start to creep back. Corporate profits rebound. Unemployment drops back to single-digit levels. GDP growth leaps ahead after the disaster called 2020. WFH is no longer a thing. Suburban house prices melt a little. In some places, a lot.

“The reasonable outcome” ignores destiny. I’m a boomer. Before I was born, the Second World War was the great war of destiny. As I grew up there was the cold war. John Fitzgerald Kennedy, Martin Luther King. The cold war was destiny. JFK and MLK were men of destiny. Candace Owens says the problem with millennials is peace. I would say the problem is they see destiny but are searching for their place in it. In the nineteenth century, the Napoleonic Wars and the American Civil War were wars of destiny. The American Civil War was the greatest achievement of mankind – never before had an entrenched system of slavery been abolished. The title of William Strauss’ book “The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us about America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny” says it all. Destiny trumps reasonableness (pardon the pun).

Conclusion: ignore it all. If you have a nicely-built portfolio, hands off till January. If, on the other hand, you’re a hopped-up day-trader with big Tesla options or 3x leveraged ETFs, you could try prayer. I hear that works.

yeah it does

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4ga_M5Zdn4

#93 Doug t on 09.21.20 at 9:28 pm

Sadly both Trump and Biden suck (not much different here) they suck in different ways but still both are losers – I honestly wonder if the States will be able to avoid a race war at some point no matter who is in power – it is so toxic at all levels that I wonder if there is any peaceful way out of this

#94 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.21.20 at 9:32 pm

#65 Ace Goodheart on 09.21.20 at 6:28 pm
So it looks like this winter won’t be such a drag after all:

https://www.gocuba.ca/news-view/cuba-covid-19-update/

Now if they could just fix the ridiculous 14 day quarantine requirement in Canada. I mean, just give a test at the airport, and re-test in two days. That catches everyone anyway.

We are so backwards here.

Cuba, here I come!
————–
I thought you hate communists.

#95 Flop... on 09.21.20 at 9:40 pm

Replace the word Jobseeker with the word CERB and you can see what entitlement games were going on in Australia.

Fair suck of the savaloy…

M46BC

“More than 3000 millionaires claiming JobSeeker as new rules due to come into effect.

Millionaires have been claiming the dole during the COVID-19 pandemic but are set to be kicked off JobSeeker this week under a tough new asset test.

The bizarre situation is the result of the decision to suspend the assets test six months ago as thousands of Australians were forced onto the dole queue.

But the act of generosity also allowed thousands of millionaires with substantial cash and assets to legally claim the $1115 fortnightly payment.

New figures obtained by news.com.au reveal that a stunning 3,600 millionaires did just that, rushing to claim unemployment benefits after the asset test was waived.”

#96 cramar on 09.21.20 at 9:45 pm

This reinforces what I said last week that the post-election market is likely to be one of total uncertainty (unless Biden wins easily by a landslide). Since the markets hate uncertainty, you figure out what the market reaction will be post Nov. 3.

Investors fear US election won’t be decided for weeks — or even months

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/21/investing/stock-market-election-outcome/index.html

#97 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.21.20 at 9:45 pm

#74 nonplussed
I thought you were above such mindless ad hominem statements like this: “He can’t even remember where he is half the time.“ Apparently I was wrong. – Garth
—————
Does not surprise me.
Wolf in sheep’s clothes.
Watched a Biden speech today. Sharp as a whistle.
Even Trump now admits that the debates won’t be a cake walk.

#98 Stone on 09.21.20 at 9:53 pm

#54 SoggyShorts on 09.21.20 at 5:44 pm
239 The Woosh on 09.21.20 at 3:02 pm
#221 Linda on 09.21.20 at 11:04 am
#140 ‘Soggy’ – Agreed. If more taxation is applied, the simple solution as proposed in your post would be best. I like the concept that period of ownership would reduce the tax hit.

—————————————————

So, if I hold my stocks for a certain amount of time I’ll pay less capital gains. Bahahahahahaha! Oh, that was rich!
**********
“Whoosh” is a good name as the discussion seems to have go e over your head.
Capital gains on housing should be different than on stocks because the motivation is different.

We tax capital gains on stocks at 50% to encourage investment.
We should tax capital gains on a house at 100% the first year to DIScourage flippers, and then less than 100% after x years to not be punitive.

———

Considering how so many crow about the big bucks they’re making on real estate, it’s apparent people are only motivated by one thing (and nothing else) when it comes to real estate.

Profit!

Tax real estate like any other investments. Period!

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.21.20 at 9:55 pm

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.21.20 at 8:17 pm
@#30 Dolce
“Who knew you could ACTUALLY vote for LESS GOVERNMENT?

Well Italia just did that in their referendum over the past 2 days:

“Reduce the number of MPs in the Parliament, from 630 to 400 in the Chamber of Deputies and from 315 to 200 in the Senate.”

++++

At this very moment ….
I am very jealous of the Italian people.
Fewer politicians.
Well done.
—————
Yeah, fewer politicians.
But still too many political parties.
Nothing gets ever done.
Just like Israel.

#100 TurnerNation on 09.21.20 at 10:02 pm

Going to be an interesting winter for small business.
We’re 6 months in and still every facet of our lives is being rules by the telescreens. Would you expect them to let up on this control mechanism? One person tests ‘positive’ for something and entire place decided to close for 2 weeks:

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2020/09/caribbean-restaurant-toronto-closes-covid-19/

— Ontario further tightened freedom of
assembly rules. 6 months in. Yet people wear Freedom Masks 24/7 in the hopes their freedoms restore. Ain’t happening.

–MARCH 24 I wrote. And what has changed since?:

#15 TurnerNation on 03.24.20 at 4:57 pm
“Walk or drive around your city or town. It looks like an Economic BOMB has been dropped. Darkness, papered up windows; empty parking spots.
And it was just that. A co-ordinated global attack.
The best comment I’ve read, elsewhere, was that every single action going forward will be toward a new global order. Every one. Keep this in mind at all times.

They have the entire globe under lock and key, or face fines and jail. All over the [mess] that they ourselves created. Large media conglomorates have us on the run, fighting each other in the aisles, shaming in public”

#225 TurnerNation on 03.18.20 at 2:14 pm
A global take down. Airlines will be nationalized, Universal income, Govt will provide housing.
Middle class was a grand experiment, coming to an end.
imo.

^ Yep March. 6 months ago.

#101 meslippery on 09.21.20 at 10:03 pm

#27

Garth, in your polling screenshot Why is Harris listed separately from Biden?
Is it because Biden will handoff presidency to Harris after the win?

Not my poll. Presumably she was the first choice of some respondents. – Garth
————–
Yeah I was thinking can we(they)vote for her?
My opinion that’s the best option. She’s young enough to be maybe able make it to Christmas unlike the other geriatric candidates not be against age but come on the other two should just retire.

#102 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.21.20 at 10:06 pm

#78 nonplussed
In a sane world, both Trump and Biden would just retire.
—————-
And half the Senate and Supreme Court, too.

#103 TurnerNation on 09.21.20 at 10:15 pm

#24 Dolce Vita analyse his data sets (link at bottom).

So far in 2020 (3 months remain) Ontario total deaths below 2019 levels? Dunno – time for the stataticians on this weblog to prove it.

https://i.imgur.com/L7YQDd1.png

#104 Exculpatory on 09.21.20 at 10:15 pm

#6 27leafs99 on 09.21.20 at 3:55 pm
A numbskull that’s campaigning out of his basement, who hasn’t accomplished anything is 47 years of politics except filling his pockets with taxpayer money and hasn’t issued a believable platform ever, is going to beat Trump?
Right Mr. Turner. Are you being sucked in by the 24hr, 365 hate machine?

_______________
NEVER underestimate how stupid, gullible and impressionable people can be!

#105 Sunnyways on 09.21.20 at 10:22 pm

DELETED

#106 Doug in London on 09.21.20 at 10:38 pm

Well look on the bright side. After going way up in April, stocks and equity ETFs could go on sale again. It could be another year when Black Friday and Boxing Day sales come early.

#107 I believe everything on television on 09.21.20 at 10:38 pm

The people on television who ‘flip’ are actually renovating, and it’s already taxed as a business activity.

#108 Millennial 1%er on 09.21.20 at 11:13 pm

I close my eyes and buy VGRO and some cryptocurrency that I may or may not lose in a boating accident at some point.

#109 kc on 09.21.20 at 11:21 pm

93 Doug t on 09.21.20 at 9:28 pm

– I honestly wonder if the States will be able to avoid a race war at some point no matter who is in power – it is so toxic at all levels that I wonder if there is any peaceful way out of this

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

What makes you have this conclusion? Mainstream news clips? or boots on the ground?

Just spent over a week in some pretty black areas and never felt threatened there.

#110 Nonplused on 09.21.20 at 11:21 pm

#98 Stone on 09.21.20 at 9:53 pm

Considering how so many crow about the big bucks they’re making on real estate, it’s apparent people are only motivated by one thing (and nothing else) when it comes to real estate.

Profit!

Tax real estate like any other investments. Period!

—————————-

Except for your primary residence, it already is.

#111 WackedBC on 09.21.20 at 11:55 pm

So, I was thinking that now is time to live large and by the time retirement comes in 10 years, UBI will be in full force.. wouldn’t that be something. Knowing I went without for 45 years and didn’t need to do that. Only question now is a motor home or a boat?

#112 Debt and Assets on 09.22.20 at 12:11 am

what kind of fresh Hell is this?

WASHINGTON—A resurgent stock market and fiscal stimulus propelled the net worth of U.S. households to the highest level ever in the second quarter, despite a record drop in the previous three months caused by an economic shock from the pandemic.

The net worth of American households and nonprofit organizations jumped 6.8% in the second quarter from the first, to $118.96 trillion. That is about $380 billion more than at the end of 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic wiped out more than $7 trillion of household wealth.

#113 ArcticOutback on 09.22.20 at 7:04 am

‘229 IHCTD9 on 09.21.20 at 12:29 pm
#220 Ace Goodheart on 09.21.20 at 10:49 am
#94 IHCTD9 on 09.20.20 at 6:33 pm

Yep, just enough, for long enough; to make home flipping a no win situation. No more, no less.

///////////////////////////////////////

The government has to crush the whole house flipping, live-and reno, then sell business, into a pulp.
___

Well a good solid CG tax on PR’s is a good way to inhale the potential profit out of these ventures, just need a carefully chosen time limit. Like maybe 5 years. Tax say, 50-75% CG on top of income and I doubt many would want to risk a flip – even in the GTA/GVRD. Meanwhile those using their homes to raise a family typically aren’t moving out in 5 years so they’d be exempt 95% of the time.

Folks might be a little more cautious about when and where they buy too. I realize some legit owners will get burned if forced to move before the time limit – there’s going to be some collateral damage no matter what you do.

There’s a guy reno’ing a house down the road right now. Bought this summer from elderly couple, it’s still 70’s inside. It’ll be on the market next spring for 150K or more than what he has into it.

I hate to say it – but I hope he blows his brains out on it. I’d rather see a young family in there with the homeowner fixing things up over the years.’

This is so true. Many Contractors and home builders constantly move, doing flips and new builds while they pay hardly any income taxes. Yet they have brand new vehicles and go on expensive trips. This needs to end.

#114 YouKnowWho on 09.22.20 at 7:33 am

#1 Jimmy Zhao

————————-
Jimmy, you’re crazy. It’s not happening. It’s made up. Lies. Laundering? No way.

Oh…what’s this…

“Hong Kong shares of HSBC and Standard Chartered weakened a further 2%, after leaked reports showed they were among global lenders that have transferred more than $2 trillion in suspect funds over nearly two decades.”

Hmmm…..

#115 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 09.22.20 at 7:43 am

T2 about to drop the mic today.

Lets see who this CHUMP wants to steal from now.

I am sure it starts with those who DON’T want to work.

#116 MF on 09.22.20 at 8:01 am

“More than half of Canadians now think the deficit is too big”

https://globalnews.ca/news/7348429/federal-deficit-throne-speech-ipsos/

MF

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.22.20 at 8:13 am

@#99 Ponzie Pouting
“Yeah, fewer politicians.
But still too many political parties.
Nothing gets ever done…”

+++

Now now Ponzie. Dont be such a Negative Nelly.
The ink is barely dry on the referndum and you expect results. Lets give our paisanos a chance.

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.22.20 at 8:22 am

@#84 Floppie
“I think Uncle Crowdie did a similar thing, but then he took it too far and voted for Trudeau as well.”
++++

Tis true. A moment of loathing for Harper. It wont happen again.
As for Wilkinson as head of the BC Libs….
Bizarre to say the least. He must of had a lot of favors owed to get chosen leader.
The man has the popularity of a fart in a mosque.
However, I know which way the wind blows so……
I’ll hold my nose and vote for the BC libs.
No sense giving the NDP a massive majority.

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.22.20 at 8:39 am

@#116 MF

“More than 55% of Canadians think the deficit is too big…”

++++++
Hopefully some of those Canucks will vote in the next election……

#120 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.22.20 at 8:59 am

#113 ArcticOutback on 09.22.20 at 7:04 am
‘229 IHCTD9 on 09.21.20 at 12:29 pm
#220 Ace Goodheart on 09.21.20 at 10:49 am
#94 IHCTD9 on 09.20.20 at 6:33 pm

Yep, just enough, for long enough; to make home flipping a no win situation. No more, no less.

///////////////////////////////////////

The government has to crush the whole house flipping, live-and reno, then sell business, into a pulp.
___

Well a good solid CG tax on PR’s is a good way to inhale the potential profit out of these ventures, just need a carefully chosen time limit. Like maybe 5 years. Tax say, 50-75% CG on top of income and I doubt many would want to risk a flip – even in the GTA/GVRD. Meanwhile those using their homes to raise a family typically aren’t moving out in 5 years so they’d be exempt 95% of the time.

Folks might be a little more cautious about when and where they buy too. I realize some legit owners will get burned if forced to move before the time limit – there’s going to be some collateral damage no matter what you do.

There’s a guy reno’ing a house down the road right now. Bought this summer from elderly couple, it’s still 70’s inside. It’ll be on the market next spring for 150K or more than what he has into it.

I hate to say it – but I hope he blows his brains out on it. I’d rather see a young family in there with the homeowner fixing things up over the years.’

This is so true. Many Contractors and home builders constantly move, doing flips and new builds while they pay hardly any income taxes. Yet they have brand new vehicles and go on expensive trips. This needs to end…

—–

Or, you could hire a crew, learn a skill, and start doing it yourself. Don’t assume this is unearned money… It’s just valued more than what you’re doing (maybe)… Don’t be jealous or envious of those that are working harder or smarter than yourself…

#121 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.22.20 at 9:02 am

One caveat to the the above.. if they illegally evading taxes, that’s a different story, but you shouldn’t just speculate that they are.

#122 Sunnyways on 09.22.20 at 9:39 am

# 105

Wow my post was pretty equal is its criticisms of both candidates. That’s some heavy censorship Garth.

If all you have to contribute to this blog is slogging public figures, just leave. – Garth

#123 Do we have all the facts on 09.22.20 at 9:40 am

This might be a good time to compare how the Canadian housing market was projected to perform prior to the Covid 19 virus and how it actually performed after a range of measures were implemented to stimulate sales in 2020.

In 2018 a total of 458,475 homes were sold across Canada.

In 2019 a total of 486,800 homes were sold across Canada, an increase of 6.2% from 2018.

In January 2020 the CREA projected that 529,900 homes would be sold across Canada in 2020, an increase of 8.85% from home sales in 2019.

During the first eight months of 2019 a total of 337,615 homes were sold across Canada, an average of 42,260 sales per month.

During the first eight months of 2020 a total of 318,450 homes were sold across Canada, an average of 39,805 sales per month.

Prior to Covid 19 the CREA had projected that 353,000 homes would be sold in the first eight months of 2020, an average of 44,100 sales per month.

It would appear that 34,550 fewer home sales occurred in the first eight months of 2020 than were projected by the CREA prior to Covid 19.

Just think what might have occurred if mortgage rates had not followed reductions in the overnight interest rate to historic lows.

Clearly high unemployment has affected home sales across Canada and it is only a matter of time until a downward adjustment in average home prices must occur.

One final observation is that promising to keep interest rates at current levels through 2022 indicates that higher than normal unemployment might be with us for longer than originally predicted.

#124 not 1st on 09.22.20 at 9:46 am

So let me get this straight, we have to get off oil a resource that has contributed $600B to confederation and is almost 25% of federal transfers for a few provinces (cough Quebec, NB) and throw some cash at electric vehicles which will never be made in Canada other than some individual parts.

And now buy up hotels to stick low income people in probably with a UBI and a safe injection site in the lobby. Maybe the room service will stay too.

How on earth is this progress?

If you unleashed that oil industry and all our resources you might just bring disadvantaged groups out of poverty and give them some hope.

What a disasterous set of policies being developed by people who dont have a clue how to run an economy.

#125 Dharma Bum on 09.22.20 at 9:53 am

#113 ArcticOutback

Many Contractors and home builders constantly move, doing flips and new builds while they pay hardly any income taxes. Yet they have brand new vehicles and go on expensive trips. This needs to end.
——————————————————————-

Why?

Jealousy is a disease.

Those that are innovative, intelligent, and successful get dragged down and reduced to the lowest common denominator by the dimwitted.

#126 neo on 09.22.20 at 10:01 am

#24 Dolce Vita on 09.21.20 at 4:27 pm
“The UK may lockdown again”

Garth they’re in partial lockdown of 12 million people tomorrow all over the UK. Their cases are soaring and confusion with that:

ONS today: 6000 new case/day (data 7-10 days old, their StatCan)

Their Zoe contact, cases app: 11,876

“Official” Gov UK = 3389

It’s gone nuts there. Do not know why?

————————-

Spain partially locking down more bits and pieces today and that would be Madrid which has some parts with > 600 cases/100K !

Funny thing, today the Madrid cops trying to figure out where the “imaginary” Madrid neighborhood lines are on a map to enforce the lockdown areas (as in the Best Laid Plans of Mice and Men).

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-09-20/no-es-solo-madrid-el-coronavirus-golpea-las-areas-metropolitanas-en-la-segunda-ola.html

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-09-21/confusion-el-primer-dia-de-restricciones-en-madrid-esto-me-sirve-para-pasar.html?ssm=TW_CM

————————-

…and then there is France, with half the country in a Red Zone:

“Une zone de circulation active du virus se caractérise principalement par un taux d’incidence supérieur à 50 pour 100 000 habitants et une dynamique épidémique défavorable.”

https://solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/soins-et-maladies/maladies/maladies-infectieuses/coronavirus/etat-des-lieux-et-actualites/article/indicateurs-de-l-activite-epidemique

————————-

Damn that virus and the effect it is having on major World economies.

PS: Italia cases down the past few days, 1350 today and Deutschland Rt dropped from 1.21 to a shade over 1.0…not all bad news from Europe.

********************************************

Oh ya….How’s Sweden doing….

#127 Sean on 09.22.20 at 10:06 am

All this fear mongering on deficits.

Inflation was 0.1 the last couple months in Canada.

People should read The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton

We need to change the way we talk about the levers that we hold and how policy can be added to make things better for all of us.

Don’t have to agree with all MMT but at least understand that the way we speak about a deficit isn’t what we like to claim.

#128 Stone on 09.22.20 at 10:07 am

#110 Nonplused on 09.21.20 at 11:21 pm
#98 Stone on 09.21.20 at 9:53 pm

Considering how so many crow about the big bucks they’re making on real estate, it’s apparent people are only motivated by one thing (and nothing else) when it comes to real estate.

Profit!

Tax real estate like any other investments. Period!

—————————-

Except for your primary residence, it already is.

———

Any issues extrapolating?

#129 Peter Shire on 09.22.20 at 10:19 am

This is my retirement income decision in such a low rate environment. I took all my RRSP’s and TFSA’s rolled into a Vanguard Retirement Income ETF which targets a 4% annual retirement income. It only has a 0.29% annual fee.

This income is paid monthly so I will start to get $2,850 plus my C.P.P. $855, OAS $613 next and every month. My net remaining in my savings accounts after income taxes and living expenses is $2,000 a month. It leaves me with a good monthly financial cushion for making future TFSA contributions and other investments, savings.

#130 jess on 09.22.20 at 10:27 am

co operation

Following the Wall Street Market takedown in May 2019

Tuesday, September 22, 2020
International Law Enforcement Operation Targeting Opioid Traffickers on the Darknet Results in over 170 Arrests Worldwide and the Seizure of Weapons, Drugs and over $6.5 Million
Darknet Narcotics Vendors Selling to Tens of Thousands of U.S. Residents Charged

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/international-law-enforcement-operation-targeting-opioid-traffickers-darknet-results-over-170

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/08/03/the-cold-war-bunker-that-became-home-to-a-dark-web-empire

#131 Mattl on 09.22.20 at 10:33 am

#125 Dharma Bum on 09.22.20 at 9:53 am
#113 ArcticOutback

Many Contractors and home builders constantly move, doing flips and new builds while they pay hardly any income taxes. Yet they have brand new vehicles and go on expensive trips. This needs to end.
——————————————————————-

Why?

Jealousy is a disease.

Those that are innovative, intelligent, and successful get dragged down and reduced to the lowest common denominator by the dimwitted.

————————————————————–

Exactly. In that reno / flip scenario the flipper paid transfer tax, will buy supplies that are taxed at purchase, will pay realtor fee’s to sell, and if not their primary residence will pay cap gains taxes. And will probably work every weekend for 8 months for the privilege of netting 40-60K after tax. And will also take the risk that comes with this kind of play – if the market turns, this could easily turn into a loss.

I can think of a lot easier ways to make 50K, and if it is so easy, I suggest the blog dogs that are full of jealousy load up on debt by buying a home to flip, and get out there and swing a hammer for 4 hours every day after work. There is no barrier to entry to rather then complain, join the easy money train. But that would require hard work, effort, and risk taking.

#132 MF on 09.22.20 at 10:52 am

26 neo on 09.22.20 at 10:01 am

Not great. Worse than comparative Scandinavian countries that locked down, like Norway, but better than Western European countries like the UK and France.

Why? Swedes listened to their government’s advice on social distancing, masks, etc.

That’s how Sweden is doing.

MF

#133 Doug t on 09.22.20 at 11:03 am

#111 wacked

Yeah I’m starting to feel the same way

#134 Richie Stephenson on 09.22.20 at 11:05 am

Sean, inflation at 0.1% for a month for couple of months in Canada. People still believe these lies.

Look at your rent or property taxes,home, condo, property prices, water, electricity, phone, home heating bills, gasoline prices, home insurance, car insurance, food prices, healthcare medical costs, extra, higher taxes, fees etc. from governments over the last 5, 10, 15, 20 years.

They are all at least costing anywhere from 100% to 400% more. Inflation is not 1.5% to 2.0% a year the Bank of Canada, statscan says it is. It is all lies.

#135 Dogman01 on 09.22.20 at 11:11 am

Wow – a vision for an industrial strategy for Canada articulated by the UNIFOR boss.

How come our elected leaders have not articulated a long term job and industrial strategy?

Selling each other houses is not a strategy.

#136 Howard on 09.22.20 at 11:11 am

#131 Mattl on 09.22.20 at 10:33 am

People who invest in securities are taking risks too but they don’t get any exemption.

Hard work? So what? Wage earners in Canada work hard and pay eye-watering income taxes. Hard work is not a reason to grant privileged tax status to some people over others.

There is no moral justification to give one group of citizens (homeowners) a freebie for which an equivalent is unavailable to another group (renters).

And as you well know, governments in Canada exist to prop up the housing market, so how much risk are these people actually taking?

#137 PBrasseur on 09.22.20 at 11:28 am

Biden endorsed the Green New Nightmare, what’s so moderate about that?

#138 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.22.20 at 11:37 am

#127 Sean on 09.22.20 at 10:06 am
All this fear mongering on deficits.

Inflation was 0.1 the last couple months in Canada.

People should read The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton

We need to change the way we talk about the levers that we hold and how policy can be added to make things better for all of us.

Don’t have to agree with all MMT but at least understand that the way we speak about a deficit isn’t what we like to claim.

——

We get it Sean, but what we are thinking is that the MMT gang is grossly overestimating people’s ability of reacting appropriately to chaotic systems… It’s very hard to forget how to spend when you do it so freely… Best systems are laissez faire which allow for failures and successes. To think we will properly micromanage economic systems has got to be peak hubris…

Safety nets to catch people if they fall, not safety blankets to smother us all…

#139 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.22.20 at 11:43 am

#133 Howard on 09.22.20 at 11:11 am
#131 Mattl on 09.22.20 at 10:33 am

People who invest in securities are taking risks too but they don’t get any exemption.

Hard work? So what? Wage earners in Canada work hard and pay eye-watering income taxes. Hard work is not a reason to grant privileged tax status to some people over others.

There is no moral justification to give one group of citizens (homeowners) a freebie for which an equivalent is unavailable to another group (renters).

And as you well know, governments in Canada exist to prop up the housing market, so how much risk are these people actually taking?

—-

If you feel it’s essentially risk free, why are you not taking advantage of it? What could possibly be holding you back?

#140 MF on 09.22.20 at 11:47 am

38 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.22

“ Safety nets to catch people if they fall, not safety blankets to smother us all”

-An insightful and on the “money” knockout comment.

ImGonnaBeSick 1 Sean 0.

MF

#141 KLNR on 09.22.20 at 12:07 pm

@#131 Mattl on 09.22.20 at 10:33 am
#125 Dharma Bum on 09.22.20 at 9:53 am
#113 ArcticOutback

Many Contractors and home builders constantly move, doing flips and new builds while they pay hardly any income taxes. Yet they have brand new vehicles and go on expensive trips. This needs to end.
——————————————————————-

Why?

Jealousy is a disease.

Those that are innovative, intelligent, and successful get dragged down and reduced to the lowest common denominator by the dimwitted.

————————————————————–

Exactly. In that reno / flip scenario the flipper paid transfer tax, will buy supplies that are taxed at purchase, will pay realtor fee’s to sell, and if not their primary residence will pay cap gains taxes. And will probably work every weekend for 8 months for the privilege of netting 40-60K after tax. And will also take the risk that comes with this kind of play – if the market turns, this could easily turn into a loss.

I can think of a lot easier ways to make 50K, and if it is so easy, I suggest the blog dogs that are full of jealousy load up on debt by buying a home to flip, and get out there and swing a hammer for 4 hours every day after work. There is no barrier to entry to rather then complain, join the easy money train. But that would require hard work, effort, and risk taking.

Bingo.
As a veteran house flipper it does come easy for me,
but it wasn’t always this way.
Won’t be any expensive trips this year unfortunately.

#142 Slim on 09.22.20 at 12:09 pm

Trump reminds me of that big kid at the back of the class who failed a couple of grades.

#143 Stoph on 09.22.20 at 12:16 pm

#136 Howard on 09.22.20 at 11:11 am
#131 Mattl on 09.22.20 at 10:33 am

People who invest in securities are taking risks too but they don’t get any exemption.

Hard work? So what? Wage earners in Canada work hard and pay eye-watering income taxes. Hard work is not a reason to grant privileged tax status to some people over others.

There is no moral justification to give one group of citizens (homeowners) a freebie for which an equivalent is unavailable to another group (renters).

And as you well know, governments in Canada exist to prop up the housing market, so how much risk are these people actually taking?

—————————————————————-

Are you in favor of legislating that everyone be paid the same amount for their labour? Sounds like this is only fair according to your reasoning. After all, not everyone can afford to get post secondary education to become a doctor so doing this is only fair as it levels the playing field.

#144 SoggyShorts on 09.22.20 at 12:31 pm

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.22.20 at 8:39 am
@#116 MF
“More than 55% of Canadians think the deficit is too big…”
++++++
Hopefully some of those Canucks will vote in the next election……

*********************************
I always scare myself by looking at the flip side of these ipsos surveys:

45% of people: https://images.app.goo.gl/mLrV7PDAQjsHYkjA8

#145 Stoph on 09.22.20 at 12:37 pm

The best reason I can think of as to why primary residences should be exempt from capital gains is that it avoids penalizing homeowners for moving. If the market went up, then their new house is going to cost more, so they won’t be any better off provided that both houses are of similar value.

As for people renovating their primary residences and moving every couple of years, their activity could be classified as work, so it there is a good case to be made that this should be taxed.

As has already been mentioned, flippers and investors are already taxed.

#146 Chris Townson on 09.22.20 at 12:48 pm

Slim, Justin Trudeau reminds me of the kid that would taddle taie on other kids because he was sneaky, conniving and sniveling.

#147 Barb on 09.22.20 at 12:56 pm

If you want to vote by mail in B.C., here’s the form:

https://eregister.electionsbc.gov.bc.ca/ovr/welcome.aspx#

Great idea.

#148 mike from mtl on 09.22.20 at 1:03 pm

#129 Peter Shire on 09.22.20 at 10:19 am
This is my retirement income decision in such a low rate environment. I took all my RRSP’s and TFSA’s rolled into a Vanguard Retirement Income ETF which targets a 4% annual retirement income. It only has a 0.29% annual fee.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Outside of mutuals I haven’t heard of this one before, and I think you’re talking about canadian listed VRIF which is brand new.

According to their specs it is currently listed as 68% bond funds, 32% common index.

#149 Howard on 09.22.20 at 1:11 pm

#143 Stoph on 09.22.20 at 12:16 pm

Are you in favor of legislating that everyone be paid the same amount for their labour? Sounds like this is only fair according to your reasoning. After all, not everyone can afford to get post secondary education to become a doctor so doing this is only fair as it levels the playing field.

—————————–

I haven’t the foggiest idea how you interpreted my comment that way. I really don’t know what you’re talking about.

The question is whether one class of citizens gets a massive freebie while another class doesn’t, based on their housing situation (owner or renter).

#150 Sean on 09.22.20 at 1:16 pm

#134 Richie Stephenson on 09.22.20 at 11:05 am
Sean, inflation at 0.1% for a month for couple of months in Canada. People still believe these lies.

What exactly are they gaining by lying about inflation? Do you think they want to show 0.1% inflation? There is a reason it’s a full basket of goods. Many industries are suffering BIG right now.

#138 ImGonnaBeSick

What do you propose? Lock up spending and let a massive part of the population suffer because you’re fine?

If inflation flies let’s talk about reduced spending, but right now money is not moving in this country. Spending today will set us up for a BETTER tomorrow not worse as a lot of you claim.

#151 Howard on 09.22.20 at 1:18 pm

#139 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.22.20 at 11:43 am
#133 Howard on 09.22.20 at 11:11 am
#131 Mattl on 09.22.20 at 10:33 am

People who invest in securities are taking risks too but they don’t get any exemption.

Hard work? So what? Wage earners in Canada work hard and pay eye-watering income taxes. Hard work is not a reason to grant privileged tax status to some people over others.

There is no moral justification to give one group of citizens (homeowners) a freebie for which an equivalent is unavailable to another group (renters).

And as you well know, governments in Canada exist to prop up the housing market, so how much risk are these people actually taking?

—-

If you feel it’s essentially risk free, why are you not taking advantage of it? What could possibly be holding you back?

——————————

Because I’m busy earning an income doing actual productive work and thus far I’ve focused on financial markets for extra gain. Learning to swing trade took an awful lot of time and effort too. So I don’t have time to parasitize the housing market abusing the PR exemption through flipping. Why should my investment choice (renter + financial markets) be penalized but yours (all-in housing, I assume) shouldn’t, especially given the government propping up the housing market essentially making it risk free?

#152 JB on 09.22.20 at 1:19 pm

#8 Attrition on 09.21.20 at 3:57 pm

Well, consider the reasonable outcome. President Biden in 2021. Trade war with China tamped down. The US assumes more of a global leadership role – rejoins the WHO, works towards climate change response, drops protectionist measures, stops playing footsy with dictators. A vaccine is finally sanctioned and inoculations begin. That takes two years (at least). Trade, travel, tourism and immigration start to creep back. Corporate profits rebound. Unemployment drops back to single-digit levels. GDP growth leaps ahead after the disaster called 2020. WFH is no longer a thing. Suburban house prices melt a little. In some places, a lot.

Oooooorrrr…..

President Trump in 2021. Polls proved wrong yet again. Trade war with China ended when the corrupt Communist regime admits defeat. The US assumes more of a global leadership role by protecting it’s citizens from the lying, Communist-infiltrated WHO and UN, works towards climate change science based on science and not fear mongering to prove global warming caused by plant food is a complete lie, increases protectionist measures to bring jobs home, continues to play hardball with dictators as the Trump admin has done, and continues to bring peace to the middle east.

A vaccine is finally sanctioned and inoculations begin as they’ve been done in Russia since August (what, the entire world ignores Russia, with some of the greatest scientific and medical minds, already announced a vaccine?). That takes 6-12 months. Trade, travel, tourism and immigration start to creep back. Corporate profits rebound. Unemployment drops back to single-digit levels. GDP growth leaps ahead after the disaster called 2020. WFH is still a thing, but just so 2020. Suburban house prices melt a little. In some places, a lot. In other places, they continue upwards. Condos recover.
……………………………………………………………………
What pill did you take?
Trump with over 200,000 deaths on this hands.
this guy couldn’t manage a mini-mart gas bar.

#153 TurnerNation on 09.22.20 at 1:20 pm

Here it comes folks. UN agenda on plan
Everything happening now is cover for the real plan.
Remember they do not care about our health at all.
1b in 6 months! They got tight timelines for this global rollout

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/liberals-pledge-1-billion-for-cities-to-buy-motels-hotels-for-rapid-housing-program

#154 Barb on 09.22.20 at 1:35 pm

#134 Richie Stephenson
“Look at your rent or property taxes,home, condo, property prices, water, electricity, phone, home heating bills, gasoline prices, home insurance, car insurance, food prices, healthcare medical costs, extra, higher taxes, fees etc. from governments over the last 5, 10, 15, 20 years.

They are all at least costing anywhere from 100% to 400% more. Inflation is not 1.5% to 2.0% a year the Bank of Canada, statscan says it is.”
—————————————————

Did a double take at how much my water costs have increased in 20 years! from ~$700 pre-meter to ~$8,000.

That’s an increase of 1042.86 per cent!
Holy Hannah!

#155 Don Guillermo on 09.22.20 at 1:40 pm

Mexico has a capital gains tax on primary residences. If you are a resident and sell your home owning it for less than three years the tax can be upwards of 35%. If you sell after three years no taxes. If you sell property in Mexico holding a tourist visa capital gains taxes apply regardless of how long you’ve owned it. Seems reasonable to me.

#156 El Presidente on 09.22.20 at 1:45 pm

#142 Slim on 09.22.20 at 12:09 pm

Trump reminds me of that big kid at the back of the class who failed a couple of grades.
….

And then went on to rule the world….

#157 Wrk.dover on 09.22.20 at 1:50 pm

#129 Peter Shire on 09.22.20 at 10:19 am

I will start to get $2,850 plus my C.P.P. $855, OAS $613 next and every month. My net remaining in my savings accounts after income taxes and living expenses is $2,000 a month.

————————————————

With wiggle room for inflation not eating my lunch.

Good long term plan. Similar numbers are working for me. Paid for everything makes it happen.

#158 Penny Henny on 09.22.20 at 2:17 pm

#154 Barb on 09.22.20 at 1:35 pm

Did a double take at how much my water costs have increased in 20 years! from ~$700 pre-meter to ~$8,000.

That’s an increase of 1042.86 per cent!
Holy Hannah!

/////////////// My Dog!
you are paying $8,000/yr for water.
do you own a cash wash?
Where do you live?
My water and sewage charges are $1000/yr

#159 Stoph on 09.22.20 at 2:28 pm

#149 Howard on 09.22.20 at 1:11 pm
#143 Stoph on 09.22.20 at 12:16 pm

Are you in favor of legislating that everyone be paid the same amount for their labour? Sounds like this is only fair according to your reasoning. After all, not everyone can afford to get post secondary education to become a doctor so doing this is only fair as it levels the playing field.

—————————–

I haven’t the foggiest idea how you interpreted my comment that way. I really don’t know what you’re talking about.

The question is whether one class of citizens gets a massive freebie while another class doesn’t, based on their housing situation (owner or renter).

—————————————————————–

Good to know that you don’t think that all labour should be compensated equally.

Your argument rests on the idea of one class of people getting an unfair financial break that unavailable to another class. I would disagree and say that a person’s housing situation is their choice (renter or owner) that’s available to everyone, though limited by their financial situation – just like many other things in life such as people’s career choice.

If we’re going to ‘level the playing field’ when it comes to owning vs. renting a home, why stop there? Why not ‘level the playing field’ to all other aspects of life including people pay? If we seek to make everything ‘fair’ for everyone, we’ll eventually get to this point.

I suppose the question to be answered is ‘How far is it appropriate/fair for government to make things ‘fair’?’

#160 Sunnyways on 09.22.20 at 4:23 pm

#122

Haha OK that’s rich. There are tons of comments on here everyday slogging a certain “public figure”.

So “slogging” Biden is strictly forbidden, even when slogging Trump in similar fashion. Got it.

No comment questioning the cognitive functioning of any leader will be published, Live with it. – Garth

#161 Jack Manning on 09.22.20 at 6:32 pm

Sean, are you kidding me. They have alot to gain by lying about inflation numbers. They save billions a year on C.P.P., OAS, government pensions in C.P.I. adjusted.

Also, they saved hundreds of billions over the last say 20 years on much lower interest costs on their government bonds, T-bills etc.

Justin Trudeau and Freeland Federal Liberals now have a real excuse of very low historical interest rates to rack up the government debt Canada’s to trillions more. Hey, we can now only pay $10 interest per year on $1,000 of money borrowed compared to instead of paying $50-$60 interest per year on $1,000 borrowed just 20 years ago and $80 to $100 of interest per year on $1,000 borrowed just 25 to 26 years ago.

The biggest financial manipulation in history is inflation numbers being reported way understated than they really are and interest rates pushed down for years way down not compensating for real inflation numbers. This is why they do this.

#162 Victor on 09.22.20 at 11:26 pm

Biden wins means china will continue spy and steal technologies from the western world. Is that what we want?

#163 Ravi Sanjahan on 09.23.20 at 6:18 am

Sean, you are way off on this one. Jack Manning you are so right. You did miss something very important that impacts everyone. They also use much lower real inflation figures, C.P.I. to save billions a year on not adjusting personal amounts, non-refundable tax credits, taxable and non-taxable income thresholds, other tax credits and benefits like GST, HST credit, child tax benefit etc. etc.

Under the Jean Chretien, Paul Martin liberals federally they did not adjust for any inflation for at least 8 years because they mandated it through legislation, parliament that any inflation under 3% would not be added to anything in the tax system. This is what they call bracket creep where your income taxes go up every year without actually increasing income tax rates but just losing to inflation.

Basically it is not inflation adjusted or doe not reflected the true inflation rates but only C.P.I. or other manipulated inflation figures by whatever government agency etc.

#164 Sean on 09.23.20 at 10:53 am

Inflation is where it is today because we are in a GLOBAL PANDEMIC; not some made up Trudeau conspiracy to spend money. And frankly it’s not YOUR money. You aren’t worth X because of your hard work. Stop looking at government debt like you look at your own finances.

Canada is one of THE best places in the world to live. This is setting us up to be a world leader, not some poor sap holding crushing imaginary debt we will all be left holding the bag on. Canadian currency will be in demand coming out of this thing.

#165 Westcdn on 09.23.20 at 11:26 am

I like this quote –

“I would worry less about the gods and more about the fury of a patient man.”

I am still looking for investments. BTW, I do appreciate eye candy but won’t touch.

I bought a new desktop online because I wanted an upgrade – bastards didn’t deliver the pictured video card since I like to run multiple monitors. I can’t prove it so now I wait for the card from another supplier. Good news, I did well although Kijiji probably could have been better but trust is a major consideration with me and there wasn’t enough money on the table to override my thinking.

Video was integrated with my older computer – will salvage the dvd and maybe some memory chips. The hard drive sounds to be toast – could be the cpu fan – I will try to swap that out later.