The illusion

Covid crushed rates. It could be the big story of our times.

On the weekend we talked about Marie, the 60ish income-less single who sold her only asset (a house) to finance her remaining decades. But since central bankers tanked the cost of money to fight the virus, saving’s a disaster. GICs are awful. High-interest accounts aren’t. There is no option but to onboard some risk in order to make money work.

But wait. These bankers have not just squished senior savers. They’ve also brought panic buying and more debt for young families. The bug which came ashore in March might have its enduring impact here. In real estate. Mortgages, bloated and unwise

The big news is we now have a major bank advertising five-year home loans for less than 2%. CIBC’s rate is 1.97%. Never before in Canadian history has this taken place (although sub-2 has been offered unofficially by the banks and smaller lenders for several weeks). It’s also interesting that this is just a skinny five basis points more than the cost of a variable rate mortgage (which would be foolish to take).

Okay, so banks are giving 0.85% returns on a five-year GIC, and offering five-year debt at 1.97%. We know what those deposit rates are doing to savers – impoverishing them. What are the cheap mortgage rates doing to borrowers? Yes, indebting them. Plus, inflating houses. Oh yeah, and totally distorting the housing market. Well done, CBs.

It’s all about demand. When it exceeds supply, prices rise. Demand can be manipulated. Normally when the economy tanks, jobs are erased and recession takes hold people lose confidence in their financial futures, hunker down and spend less. In other words, in bad times, real estate markets shudder to a halt.

Now imagine if you layered over this economic collapse a global panic, endlessly bad headlines, plus a scary virus that floats through the air and which has killed nine thousand Canadians in the last six months. Oh, and lockdowns. Quarantines. Eight million people on government benefits. Four million more forced to work from home. No school, either. Did I mention no travel, concerts, sports or conventions? Right. Plus masks. And social distancing.

Such things, in normal times, would lead to one result. Housing torpor. But these are not normal days. The CBs have seen to that. So they have taken demand from the future and pulled it forward to now. Hence a 1.97% mortgage at the Bank of Commerce.

It’s a trick, of course. By collapsing the cost of borrowed money, central banks are trying to create economic activity by coaxing people into borrowing gobs and buying stuff. Like $1 million houses in the vacuous, soulless suburbs. As you know, it’s working. Sales and prices in the last two months have been off the charts. In the midst of economic collapse, real estate values in the GTA (for example) have just surpassed those of 2017 – when governments thought things were so out of control that new rules were required.

The cheap Covid CB money has overwhelmed those safeguards. It has rendered impotent new restrictions imposed by CMHC. It’s made moot structural unemployment and the fact some industries (like oil and gas) may be forever wounded and starved of investment capital. But even as the head of the central bank, Tiff, warns, “We don’t expect the strong rebound we’ve seen to continue at the same pace in the months ahead,” the house-buying orgy continues as if the economic crisis is in the rear-view. But it’s not.

Even as he says that, the CBs are further depressing rates and inflaming desire. Five billion dollars is being spent buying up mortgage bonds in Canada. Every single week. That supresses yields, pushes mortgages lower and property prices higher. In a recession with grinding employment lenders should be cautious. Loans harder to land. Rates stiffer. Instead, it’s party on.

Well, what could possibly go wrong?

A second wave, more lockdowns and quarantines? Things are not looking too cool in Ontario over the last few days.

A long, tough, empty winter? Less than one in ten of those forced to WFH have returned to the office. Airline business is off 90%. The jobless rate may still be double digits in February.

Trump? The November 3rd election may not be decided on that day. Or in that month. Or this year. Anything seems possible given the polarization, the Covid effect on voting and the social rift in our major trading partner.

Augmenting debt at lower rates is a horrible long-term strategy. When the cost of money creeps higher (it will happen), loans aren’t decreased but asset values fall and payments swell. Pulling demand forward should make you wonder what the future will look like, when we get there.

Use cheap rates to reduce, consolidate and trash debt, not borrow more. It’s a trap.

154 comments ↓

#1 anonim on 09.14.20 at 2:43 pm

Maybe people are buying because they consider that they will not be evicted in case of no payment..just consider the tenants that, legally, can not be evicted.
So, how about them, “owners”?. Can be evicted by the banks? Especially when they will represent a % of population?
Not that I agree with them.
But, it might be a strategy. For some that are thinking as such. Mojority don’t. Nevertheless, they will be in the same scenario. Will they be evicted? I would say No.
So..why not to buy then?

#2 Classical Liberal Millennial on 09.14.20 at 2:51 pm

We just spent a significant amount on home renovations (still way cheaper than moving). This would be happening whether our HELOC was 2.95%, which it currently is, or 4.95%. So while we have added debt, it will be rolled into a sub 2% mortgage renewal soon enough.

#3 jal on 09.14.20 at 2:52 pm

“… in normal times, would lead to one result. Housing torpor. But these are not normal days. The CBs have seen to that.”

My experience of normal times is that the bank takes possession and put plywood over the windows then wait for the market to go back up. The banks don’t like to sell at a loss.

Junk comment. The last thing a lender wants is to take title to a property. – Garth

#4 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 09.14.20 at 2:55 pm

“Trump? The November 3rd election may not be decided on that day.” — Garth

Probably not.

No doubt those who understand what is happening have already decided to vote for President Donald J. Trump.

#5 Catalyst on 09.14.20 at 2:57 pm

Garth – the banks are giving mortgages out sub 2% with dividend yields north of 5%. Would it not be smart to lever up as much as possible given the banks haven’t cut their dividends in over 120 years? If rates rise, so do NIMs which should increase profitability at the banks so it seems like the primary risk is offset.

#6 KNOW IT ALL on 09.14.20 at 3:01 pm

A PONZI scheme is what you just explained…

And all orchestrated by the entity that governs our MONEY SUPPLY.

SHAME!

#7 Freedom First on 09.14.20 at 3:05 pm

It’s a trap. Yes. The rich always outnumbers the poor. And yet, even your neighbor might be rich.

Freedom First

#8 Doug t on 09.14.20 at 3:07 pm

Its a MAD MAD WORLD

We are in extraordinary times – the CB and PTB are trying to keep the world economy from completely unraveling- the 2008 crash never recovered and that deep wound is opening up and the infection is spreading faster than covid – buckle up 2021 is going HURT

#9 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 09.14.20 at 3:07 pm

Going back to good old corporate speak to describe the current conundrum:
Since the risk reward is very high in the stock market and nothing else seems to be moving the needle, it is time to put a stake in the ground ,go after the low hanging fruit and double down on the back to basics using proven historical returns in a context of a long term view so real estate it is.

#10 Leftover on 09.14.20 at 3:11 pm

Our CB has taken mortgage bonds onto its balance sheet and certainly knows that it’s going to have to write off a significant chunk of those assets when rates go up and the debtors bail. That’s what the US Fed did a decade ago when Freddie and Fanny got into trouble.

In the meantime we print money and test the FX market (so far so good). Maybe we really are richer than we think, but I don’t think so.

#11 baloney Sandwitch on 09.14.20 at 3:20 pm

“Use cheap rates to reduce, consolidate and trash debt, not borrow more. It’s a trap.”

I propose that you can use cheap rates to borrow and invest in solid dividend paying companies like the big 5 banks. Borrow from your Heloc at < 3% and get div at 5% + dividend tax credit. Deduct the Heloc interest. Basically you are getting a nice 3% net income stream with borrowed money. Get your paid up house working for you – no germy renters needed.

#12 Dolce Vita on 09.14.20 at 3:23 pm

And Canada, don’t forget Winter and H1N1 (the flu).

Last thing you want in your lungs is a smackdown between COVID-19 and H1N1.

Tried looking for info about this but in essence all I found was lots of theories and that no one knows what will happen.

FWIW.

————————–

Spare you from detailed bad news here in Europe. So bad that Spanish and French newspapers are in general ignoring surging cases (e.g., Paris masks mandatory outside, Eastern France bordering Italia all but in a lockdown). Mercifully, Italia and Germany new cases down, others up like the UK.

And in a day, that could all change (and for the worse) the way its been going here in Europe.

Lots of people getting sick, not good for the World economy.

DAMN that VIRUS.

#13 Franco on 09.14.20 at 3:34 pm

A second lock down would be very foolish and not advisable at this stage. We could be looking at a very preventable depression if we do another complete lock down, I do not believe that will happen. Good luck to us all.

#14 Dolce Vita on 09.14.20 at 3:38 pm

If you ask me why RE suburb homes sales surging it’s probably your usual Canadian obsession but also and JUST IN CASE:

Custer’s Last Stand

with the home structures guaranteed to Social Distance.

Now, if you could only put a mask on a bungalow kind of like this:

https://i.imgur.com/CK1vAYl.png

————————

Garth, it’s NOT JUST ON & PQ having a time of it with the DAMN VIRUS, latest transmissibility numbers for Canadian Provinces (Rt > 1 means its spreading):

https://i.imgur.com/YeWKiTo.png

@imgrund posts these numbers every few days on Twitter.

Selfless guy.

#15 Jeremy on 09.14.20 at 3:39 pm

The surge this past week in covid cases is alarming. It is no longer long term care homes. It’s younger people, at work and in schools, exactly the ones government was counting on to “re-open” everything.

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/2020/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en

(Look at the graph in the bottom of the news release. The rate has bottomed and is now heading straight up. If this was a stock, after March 14, you’d be jumping on board to enjoy the gains ahead. Except this will have no gains, just some deaths, many ill, and a newly collapsed economy. Not the kind of buying opportunity anyone wants)

Plus:

“Daily average of new coronavirus infections has doubled in 3-week stretch”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-case-numbers-rising-legislature-returns-1.5720931

Kids are supposed to be going back to schools this week, but many parents are scrambling last minute in Peel Region to go online instead. Too scared now.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/peel-school-board-delays-online-school-launch-after-thousands-switch-to-virtual-learning-1.5103058

This is looking undeniable.

Second Wave.

Can this result in anything except towards another total lockdown within the next 1-3 weeks?

Right as we prepare for a long fall/winter quarantining indoors.

Then what happens to the economy?

If you haven’t sold your property, I would suggest bail out right now, this week. If you still can.

How can this not get so much worse in the weeks ahead?

#16 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 09.14.20 at 3:42 pm

Don’t worry, its just money.

Money only has value because we give it power.

When the masses realize this is when you need to worry.

But most people are stupid, never really questioning anything and accepting things the way they are.

So don’t worry it will be okay.

#17 TurnerNation on 09.14.20 at 3:46 pm

Let’s test this theory – surpression fire they are utilizing in this WW3:

Then:
#95 TurnerNation on 08.06.20 at 1:19 pm
“Was this worth giving up your freedoms? And did you notice the most ‘cases’ seem to appear in the regions with highest Testo levels and freedom and strong culture? Australia, Italy, USA
What a way to suppress people.”

Now:


Quebec Premier threatens unnamed consequences if COVID infections go past 20 per 1 million people; when it does, he just moves the goalposts (montreal.ctvnews.ca)”

#18 Big English on 09.14.20 at 3:53 pm

Waited many years to finally see Garth quote Admiral Akbar “It’s a trap” (Return of the Jedi for those too old or too young) ….it was worth the wait.

#19 Dolce Vita on 09.14.20 at 3:58 pm

Last thing, saw on Cdn. News that some want borders opened with the US so some couples can see each other, you know, girlfriend in BC, boyfriend in WA.

I sympathize BUT here is what can happen Canada with Int’l travel (American 26 yr old SUPER SPREADER female infects 33 others, 1 night, at a German après-ski hotspot in Garmisch-Partenkirchen):

https://www.express.de/news/panorama/corona-aktuell-who-warnt-vor-zunahme-todesfaelle-im-herbst-36167486

STAND YOUR GROUND Canada with Int’l travel, opening borders up esp. the USA.

————————-

PS:

Forgot to mention Garth that the “MARITIME BUBBLE” you reside in (RE: Rt chart) was green lighted by @imgrund based on cases/100K.

BUT with Rt values > 1 that will not last long.

Just a heads up My Liege.

#20 JB CONDO DEATH on 09.14.20 at 4:02 pm

#27 Linda on 09.13.20 at 4:33 pm

While it may be upsetting to move, as ‘Crowded’ said, Marie is more fortunate than many seniors. She had an asset to sell that due to Covid sold for over asking, which at her stage of life is a huge bonus.

Now if she does follow Garth’s advice & invest in a balanced & diversified portfolio that will give her much needed monthly income she is presumably set to enjoy her golden years. Don’t know her exact circumstances, but it rather sounds like she has only herself to rely upon. The main danger is if she decides to purchase another dwelling. Unless she finds a truly stellar deal that permits her to purchase while retaining a healthy chunk of her windfall to fund her retirement, purchasing RE is not the best move. Especially if it is a condo. As per many older ladies of my acquaintance, purchasing a condo was a decision they regretted. The issues relating to condo fees, special assessments, power mad condo boards etc. far outweighed any benefits. Not to mention that selling was an issue, with many losing money. Not a desirable outcome.
…………………………………………………………..
Stupid Old retirees and their freedom lifestyle condos, ha. Fees dummy, fees will eat you up, and the special assessments. Condo boards are a joke.

#21 YouKnowWho on 09.14.20 at 4:02 pm

#98 TurnerNation

Gotta tell you, I have a really hard time with the smell test on the whole thing.

If you apply what Garth has said about Real Estate, there are entirely too many parallels to this thing. Fear is a very effective motivator.

#22 dutch4505 on 09.14.20 at 4:04 pm

Crazy times on the USA side also. 30 year open note available in the USA for less than 3%. Check out Realtor.com Look for any center outside of a major city. The majority of listings show pending status. If price is below 300K the property is sold within hours. I am looking for a 2 acre parcel in upstate New York, but have decided to wait till 2021.

#23 Bill on 09.14.20 at 4:16 pm

This is so bloody true…..and sad…nothing ever changes on the motives of government. Quotes from a 100 years ago. “keep the populous alarmed” is my fav.

https://omny.fm/shows/money-talks-with-michael-campbell/changes-in-our-world-and-the-business-of-governmen

#24 Jeremy on 09.14.20 at 4:23 pm

“I’m very concerned at the moment that….this is the second wave…these numbers tell us what was going on 2-3 weeks ago…today may be actually much worse….”

“…will absolutely have to result in changes to our summer re-openings….”

“…by mid next year we may return to some degree of normality if there is a vaccine”

Infectious disease doctor Gerald Evans as heard on CBC Toronto radio just minutes ago.

https://deptmed.queensu.ca/people/evans

So this doc foresees spring levels of 600+ cases daily shortly, and possibly much worse.

SHTF, folks.

#25 Sean on 09.14.20 at 4:26 pm

If we see something like hyperinflation coming, don’t you want to take on as much debt as the banks want to give you for a house and leverage to the max? It feels like that’s the only thing that works now, saving was for suckers and we lost.

Hyperinflation is a complete myth. We’ll be lucky to hit 2% inflation in a year. – Garth

#26 Rainman on 09.14.20 at 4:29 pm

The way I see it is that inflation will come eventually and that will push house prices higher while owing the same amount of debt which in tomorrows money is less. Yes the debt doesn’t go away, but it is worth less.

Inflation will increase interest rates, which will hurt real estate values. Maybe you should try woodworking, or something. – Garth

#27 Dave on 09.14.20 at 4:30 pm

If there is a cold war with China and countries put heavily sanctions and cut trade….wouldn’t that lead to extreme inflation?

But there isn’t. So, no. – Garth

#28 Abc123 on 09.14.20 at 4:39 pm

Zero and negative rates are a lock in the coming few years .

Therefore , so are higher RE prices .

Buy now or regret it later .

The Bank of Canada has given no indication rates going negative and logic dictates they will rise with economic recovery. You are suffering from recency bias. – Garth

#29 Linda on 09.14.20 at 4:40 pm

Whether it was from CERB, savings, HELOC’s or put on the credit card, people all over have been having renovations or landscaping work done. The only real issue is actually sourcing supplies. The recently settled port strike in Montreal did not help in that regard.

Don’t know if all the activity has added to household debt or not. However it certainly has spruced up the local scenery in addition to pouring $ into the local economy, so not a total loss.

#30 Asterix1 on 09.14.20 at 4:49 pm

For this Canadian RE Ponzi scheme to continue, you need a few things to keep it going.

– MSM keeps accepting RE ad $, printing anything.
– People believing that RE stats are accurate.
– The gov’t believing RE stats are accurate.
– People trusting RE agents and bankers.
– People thinking low rates are a good thing.
– Foreign money laundered without problem.
– Locals buying condo’s as an “investment”.

Those will keep working (apart of the last). The big wild-card that will destroy the Ponzi scheme are…..

– Massive drop in immigration (already happened).
– Recession will continue for a while. Hampering new hires, less people coming.
– Debt levels not sustainable for average Joe.
– First time home buyers gone.

Sales mix has also changed which raised the Average prices, but its a trap. Truth on what is really happening on the ground will come out. Also remember, average or benchmark can go up (to record level), yet homes/condos prices are dropping all over the board.

#31 Millennial 1%er on 09.14.20 at 5:01 pm

The only thing dropping interest rates like this into the ditch is doing is hurting native first time homebuyers. Prices have skyrocketed past affordability all across Ontario. Most people my age have given up on getting a house and having children. The few that went to college for something that wasn’t the Bachelor Of Sociological Communication & Philosophy had to debtmaxx what they qualified for using DINK income. Who cares about being irresponsible when you know the Government & Bank of Canada will bail your ass out.

I said it before and I’ll say it again, thank god for TN status. Having the option to leave this unaffordable shithole and pay the greatest country in the world’s (USA) taxes instead. Blast for 10 years and then move back halifax & retire on 0.01% GIC returns.

#32 crossbordershopper on 09.14.20 at 5:02 pm

mortgage rates will be sub 1% early next year, as the 5 year GOC rates go to below .1%
Marie should simply clip her coupons in many parts of the world where she can live comfortably on $2K a month never to worry about anything till she passes and still have the nestegg given her income on house sale and govt pension cheques.
come to Canada if your sick or something or pick up your pills visit family and friends and then back to sunny south.
if houses are all over 1 million bucks in southern Ontario, why don’t people just sell and move south, what are they waiting for there generic pills? virus, please, I don’t understand how much can Marie spend? she has enough and so do 1 million other people.

#33 Sandro on 09.14.20 at 5:05 pm

Aren’t stocks and bonds a trap too given CBs have distorted them as well?

People don’t buy stocks with 20x leverage. – Garth

#34 Steve on 09.14.20 at 5:17 pm

Why are you pushing ‘fixed-rate’ mortgages?

You sound contradicting. If people are forced to sell, they are forced to break the fixed mortgage and pay a hefty penalty.

Variable-rate mortgages can be broken much easier, with penalties much lower.

Bad advice, IMHO.

If you plan on moving, get a VRM. If not, don’t. How hard is that? – Garth

#35 Gramps on 09.14.20 at 5:20 pm

Pigtails and a fur coat, they’d look like twins :)

#36 mansters on 09.14.20 at 5:22 pm

Rates are never gonna rise. They tried that and abruptly changed course in Dec ’18. They got up to 1.5ish % and everything started blowing up lol. Things are WAY worse now. If interest rates start rising ask yourself why. It will be an emergency panic response to hyperinflation. Higher rates will have no effect on loss of confidence. It will actually exacerbate it.

If rates do not rise, prepare for the slide into depression. – Garth

#37 Leftover on 09.14.20 at 5:30 pm

#31 Millennial 1%er

“…thank god for TN status”

Yup, worked for me 20 years ago. Just stay humble and enjoy the ride.

#38 S.Bby on 09.14.20 at 5:31 pm

We’ve been pulling demand from the future for 20 years now. In the real world, Real Estate would be 75% less expensive than it is now. If R/E fails in Canada we are done for.

#39 Jeremy on 09.14.20 at 5:46 pm

No illusion.

This is getting serious.

https://www.cp24.com/news/rise-in-hospitalizations-similar-to-early-days-of-pandemic-head-of-uhn-warns-1.5104090?cache=

“The head of the university Health Network is expressing concern about a rise in hospitalizations related to COVID-19 that he says is starting to remind him of “the early days” of the first wave of the virus.”

Ontario Hospital Association director is alarmed as well.

“It also comes with the Ontario Hospital Association warning that the province’s “hard-won progress is slipping away” when it comes to limiting the spread of the virus.

In a news release issued earlier on Monday, President and CEO Anthony Dale said that transmission of COVID-19 is clearly “accelerating” and that it is now everyone’s responsibility “to take steps immediately to halt this alarming trend.”

Dale said that while some people have likely been “lulled into a false sense of security by lower cases counts and the re-opening of the economy,” they must remember that COVID-19 is “still a very real threat” that could overwhelm hospitals once again.

“Without continued vigilance, today’s isolated outbreaks in Toronto, Peel, York and Ottawa could easily spread throughout communities right across Ontario,” he warns in the release. “If current trends continue to accelerate, economic restrictions may tighten once more, and the school year for our children will be in jeopardy.”

So –

Expect there will be some school closures by next week, possibly even this week.

More parents unable to go into work.

More retail about to shut down.

Outbreaks and more. That’s just for Ontario.

SHTF. Will it multiply? Probably.

And then…..Winter. People stuck indoors with each other. No vaccine.

The illusion of summer is officially over.

#40 kommykim on 09.14.20 at 5:49 pm

RE:#18 Big English on 09.14.20 at 3:53 pm
Waited many years to finally see Garth quote Admiral Akbar “It’s a trap” (Return of the Jedi for those too old or too young) ….it was worth the wait.

=======================================

Garth has used that phrase quite a few times already:

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/09/14/the-trap-5/
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/11/08/the-trap-6/
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/08/09/careful-what-you-wish-for-6/

etc…

#41 Barb on 09.14.20 at 5:49 pm

B.C. nightclubs and banquet halls shuttered again.
Bars ordered to stop serving booze at 10 p.m. unless food is available until 11 p.m.

The gov’t liquor store was REALLY busy this morning.

And a teacher on CBC radio this morning stated: “with all the smoke in B.C. from fires south of the border, maybe the kids should be home again.” This after kids being back in school, what, 2 days? Keep them in the schools, inside!

#42 Dirty Dan on 09.14.20 at 5:56 pm

> Trump? The November 3rd election may not be decided on that day. Or in that month. Or this year. Anything seems possible given the polarization, the Covid effect on voting and the social rift in our major trading partner.

Greaterfools, as a purely intellectual exercise… what would happen to the markets should there be a US military deployment in the western US states between late November and January 20th with minimal unrest to follow?

Are we talking dip and business as usual.

A complete market meltdown with no recovery for years?

Do European markets absorb all the money?

With the cancer excised will the US take off?

Does gold absorb all the value?

The convenient “corona virus” and the opportunity to ballot stuff mailboxes is the final game plan. A certain party will fail to concede. By injecting uncertainty they hope to stall until January 20th when the speaker of the house would take control. The winners will not let that happen, and rightfully so.

#43 Dogman01 on 09.14.20 at 6:03 pm

By 2040 Canadian middle class aspirations of the working class will be a memory, the working class will instead be worrying and struggling to maintain basic survival needs. Canada will look more like the rest of the world, closer to a social structure of Brazil with no social mobility and a permanent international mobile wealthy class. (this is Globalization)

UBI is simply faint hope to avoid the desperation, social unrest, crime and violence, resulting from an ever declining stand of living. Unfortunately our existing Political Parties are concerned with maintaining the structure which furthers this trend. For the declining middle class, RED Tie/BLUE Tie – will makes no difference in their decline.

The middle class is a short term post WWII aberration (undermining Communism), a large middle class is not a normal or natural structure of Human societies.

An old observation below but the trend just continues- accelerated with Covid crisis.
—————————————–
#205 Roland on 01.23.12 at 8:41 pm
“Most people in North America’s so-called “middle class” were never actually middle-class to begin with. They were merely a working class with unusually high wages, which enabled them to buy many of the things associated with the real middle class, e.g. higher education, foreign travel, private vehicles.
But as this unusually well-paid proletariat was exposed to post-Cold War global wage competition, their real wages fell.
Unfortunately, having convinced themselves that they were not working class, and having been constantly told by their political leaders that they were middle class, they tried to maintain that middle class status when they could no longer generate enough income to do so. How? They borrowed.
They went deep into debt rather than accept a visible decline in their social standing. Easy credit slowed their downfall, at the cost of making that downfall permanent.
The real story is declining real wages and loss of progressivity in the tax structure which took place after the end of the Cold War.”

#44 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 09.14.20 at 6:05 pm

Usually when the state control creeps more and more into citizens every day life, it starts off as necessary for the well-being of the populous. Later the state realizes it needs more and more control to afford the control over the people. Over the weekend, Montreal was out in the street protesting more than just the mask. Quebec is closer to their authoritarian past than the rest of Canada. French CBC or RDI showed the protest from Montreal.

#45 Dirty Dan on 09.14.20 at 6:08 pm

DELETED

#46 Dogman01 on 09.14.20 at 6:14 pm

“By collapsing the cost of borrowed money, central banks are trying to create economic activity by coaxing people into borrowing gobs and buying stuff.”

That trick may not work this time, Lower Interest only stimulates if you are willing to borrow…and maybe that ability is running low. I suspect they will need to use a UBI to shove money into the bottom so that those sidelined (possibly permanently ) can stimulate some demand. Trickle Down proved that the wealthy do not buy stuff and their investment does not create jobs anymore (well maybe overseas) it does goose the stock market with stock buybacks.

Injecting printed cash into the bottom (UBI) should have efficacy as the bottom will spend it fairly fast and often locally. High velocity of money from bottom up.

#47 Blacksheep on 09.14.20 at 6:18 pm

Rainman # 26,

“The way I see it is that inflation will come eventually and that will push house prices higher while owing the same amount of debt which in tomorrows money is less. Yes the debt doesn’t go away, but it is worth less.”

“Inflation will increase interest rates, which will hurt real estate values. Maybe you should try woodworking, or something. – Garth”
————————————
I think Rainman is reading this right.

How do the debt holders, pay of their huge mortgages?

They don’t ever, because the #’s are just too large.

Que the inflation that reduces the % of debt, to RE equity ratio, to a comfortable place. This “equity gain” (Really a loss of buying power requiring more $’s to acquire an inflated asset) can then be levered for further gains in other ventures. Rinse repeat.

As I’ve stated here a few times now, the system will simply alter the way they measure benchmark inflation #’s to hold the appearance of hitting the 2-3% target, while bailing out the debt holders at the cost of the savers.

Maybe no negative rates, but the system NEEDS inflation or we are in deep, deep shit….meaning ultra low rates until this significant inflation occurs.

#48 Keyboard Smasher on 09.14.20 at 6:33 pm

Hey! Let’s collapse your economy and implement communism for 0.024% of the population!

How do the masked lunatics get away with taking our society hostage?

#49 Isthistherealworld on 09.14.20 at 6:34 pm

Garth, it’s interesting to be told that real estate is on fire again and outpacing years we thought were the peak. Yet the tone in local media like the Times Colonist and The Province don’t seem to be reporting on it. They seem to be staying eerily silent in BC (or I’m just not reading the news often enough). Anyways, it’s a change in the tone of media reporting that I have noted in the last few weeks from what is was before of weekly graphs showing price increases year over year and the constant reminder that prices are going up, up, up…anyways, food for thought. Things here in BC are just eerie. Smoke from all the forest fires, everyone working at home, homeless camps taking over the downtown core, no tourists, many of our friends are in the restaurant business and are seriously losing their shirts…I’m scared for the winter and what’s to come for many of our peers.

#50 Comrade on 09.14.20 at 6:49 pm

#41 Barb on 09.14.20 at 5:49 pm

And a teacher on CBC radio this morning stated: “with all the smoke in B.C. from fires south of the border, maybe the kids should be home again.” This after kids being back in school, what, 2 days? Keep them in the schools, inside!

——

I know, we got an email from our daycare, saying that if VSB decides to close schools from smoke, they will close daycare too, and it can happen as of tomorrow. sigh! And my eldest had his first full day of school today, and they are already planning on closing schools due to smoke.
I guess helicopter parents are in the decision making positions now.

#51 Mike in Calgary on 09.14.20 at 6:54 pm

You forgot to mention the September 23rd gong show coming here with Trudeau & Friends and their “COVID opportunity”.

#52 willworkforpickles on 09.14.20 at 6:58 pm

Let me re-phrase…we are at the height of phase 6 in the 6 phase RE cycle – at the Peak.
Soon enough, phase 1 or the Early Downturn phase re-starts the cycle again.
Wait on phase 2 to buy if you have cash.

#53 dogwhistle on 09.14.20 at 6:58 pm

‘Five billion dollars is being spent buying up mortgage bonds in Canada.’

——————————————————

Garth do you have the figures on how much was spent on this compared to total spending on CERB?

Not being funny, curious about seeing the data. Thanks

#54 CL on 09.14.20 at 6:58 pm

banks and policy makers make statements about being concerned about personal debt levels in this insane doomed country but, yet, the money is coming from somewhere. Usually chartered banks. You know, the same banks that are worried about the economy and consumer debt levels but yet giving them more needles and drugs…err…I mean loans/mortgages/low rates…. to party with at the same time.

The market only exists because of CMHC. CMHC = moral hazard. You, the genuis homebuyer, pay for insurance FOR THE BANK so thy don’t have any risk. Why not lend lend lend?

The only way this will ever end is if people suffer. And, as is obvious, it won’t happen. It is just not going to.
So, Garth, you will still be writing the same things 10 years from now saying ” rates will rise”…..

Only savers could crash the market by withdrawing all cash savings. why not anyway? Why keep money in the bank that pays you nothing, charges you to keep your cash there, charges you to take it out but rewards debtors…people with no money……with low interest loans insured by CMHC (and, ultimately, the taxpayer) , and mortgage payment deferrals?

Everyone withdraw their cash immediately. It is called a bank run. That is a REAL protest that will have immediate tangible results. Sure, the banks will limit withdrawals because they need your cash even though they screw savers at every turn yet we take it. But, it will cause a change in mentality from them.

Banks are insured and savers forced to use the system, banks are backstopped by gov’t, is it any wonder why they have not cut dividends for 120 years?

#55 dogwhistle on 09.14.20 at 7:01 pm

#40 kommykim on 09.14.20 at 5:49 pm
“It’s a trap”

————————————————-

That’s what I told to a guy a few months ago in a bar.
He thought it was a she. It/they/them/whocares wasn’t.

#56 Nomad Capitalist on 09.14.20 at 7:16 pm

It is what it is. Let’s move on with
Life. Protect the old and sick. Typical Canada, over reacting. Our culture here is rotten to the bone. Stupid mentality. Lots of other countries have seem to have moved on. But no no not Canada.
No one is going to listen to another lock down.
We need to learn to live with it just like we do with all other diseases.
Onward people.

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.20 at 7:17 pm

@#26 Rainman
“Maybe you should try woodworking, or something. – Garth”

+++++

I think he’s good at counting toothpicks……

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaYwTxDfmHU

#58 No Debt on 09.14.20 at 7:18 pm

Proof that there is no shortage of fools. 30% over asking?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/hamilton-house-prices-explode-amid-covid-as-toronto-buyers-leave-commuting-worries-behind-1.5721251

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.20 at 7:20 pm

@#50 Comrade
“I guess helicopter parents are in the decision making positions now.”

+++++

Not to worry Trudeau has “Helicopter Money” coming soon…. Billions raining from the sky…… “Ahahahaha….we’re rich I tell you! Riiiiich! Ahahahahaha”

#60 Choking on the west coast on 09.14.20 at 7:32 pm

If I could see through the smoke, I’d leave a comment!

#61 Blacksheep on 09.14.20 at 8:11 pm

Jeremy # 39,

“This is getting serious.”
———————————–
5000 IU of Vitamin D daily and a mask when around others and you have nothing to worry about.

Lets stop promoting panic….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNji13yoW9g

#62 Nonplused on 09.14.20 at 8:12 pm

“Trump? The November 3rd election may not be decided on that day. Or in that month. Or this year. Anything seems possible given the polarization, the Covid effect on voting and the social rift in our major trading partner.”

He’s not helping matters much by saying if there is violence on Nov. 4th he’s going to crush it. That’s one of his biggest problems, when he has a thought he just says it. I mean he can, no matter what he’s still going to be president until Jan. 20, but I think it would be wiser to let the states handle it as they will. Unless he has some sort of “stable genius” plan to lure in votes from people who have had enough of the riots and are afraid they are going to get worse as Nov. 3 approaches.

Either way I predict pandemonium from Nov. 4th until the supreme court decides the election. If Trump wins Antifa and BLM and like minded people are going to go nuts. If Biden wins those same actors are going to try and seize control of the new administration’s agenda. Uncle Joe is not going to be able to stay moderate.

I fear for our neighbors to the south. There seems to be no good resolution to this election. And if the socialists win, well, every time it has been tried it has failed. Sooner or later you run out of other people’s money. Not to mention the untold millions of people who have died under socialist/communist oppression. And when the US sneezes, Canada gets the flu, so we are hooped too we just don’t know it yet.

———————————–

Some other random comments:

Most probably everyone has heard about the “Cuties” controversy on Netflix. Netflix has already dropped the film because of the backlash but what were they thinking????? Word is that they are now facing subscription cancellations in the 100’s of thousands per day so far. People are not impressed, and I don’t blame them. I only watched the trailer and I was deeply disturbed. I thought Honey Boo Boo was bad, and have always been disgusted by the whole child pageant thing, but this movie is a whole new level of depravity. But anyway my point is that this reinforces Garth’s view that individual stocks are dangerous. One fatal indiscretion by management and the company can be gone in a year. Whether Netflix can survive this remains to be seen. Many people feel they should not. Tesla is probably only a couple more autopilot crashes away from going away too. Same as Blackberry I suppose. They had the market so there was no reason for them to let Apple come in a steal it from them, but they fell asleep on the consumer side. People who weren’t going to use the device for work wanted bigger screens and more games. Blackberry said “naw, we have the business market and we’ll keep it”. RIP.

Also, an update from Costco here in Calgary where masks are mandatory indoors. Well, they don’t work if they are wrapped around your chin or don’t cover your nose. I saw enough idiots wearing them like this to conclude wave 2 is all but a certainty. As previously reported results from the schools that are open are not encouraging either. And now they are trying to open up things like indoor soccer and Scouts, so kids from different schools are going to be mixing. I predict wave 2 is going to be much worse than wave 1 because it is starting from a much higher number of existing cases. Wave 1 started with just a few cases and went exponential. Wave 2 will start from a much higher number of cases and will also go exponential. I don’t know if it will happen here, but if I were me I would prepare for an Australia type total lockdown lasting more than 2 weeks. Walk, don’t run, down to the co-op (or Costco) and if you need one can (or flat) of soup buy 2. The second lockdown will be much worse than the first one. You might not be permitted to leave your home.

Oh and guess what? The government is already contact tracing your phone, at least in the US. The technique started some years ago for investigating serious crimes. Basically run a database search to find out which phones were in the area at the time of the crime and track down their owners. There you have it, your suspects and witnesses. Covid is giving the government the excuse they need to make such techniques far more widespread. So if you intend to do something you shouldn’t, leave your phone at home. If you are meeting your mistress, definitely do not bring your phone. You can’t even speed without Google knowing about it. I am sure automated speeding tickets based on your GPS data aren’t that far off. And you thought speed cameras were bad. At least you know where they are. Imagine if every single mile you drive gets reported back to the ticket agency. The technology is already there, all that remains is the will to use it.

#63 neo on 09.14.20 at 8:13 pm

#15 Jeremy on 09.14.20 at 3:39 pm
The surge this past week in covid cases is alarming. It is no longer long term care homes. It’s younger people, at work and in schools, exactly the ones government was counting on to “re-open” everything.

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/2020/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en

(Look at the graph in the bottom of the news release. The rate has bottomed and is now heading straight up. If this was a stock, after March 14, you’d be jumping on board to enjoy the gains ahead. Except this will have no gains, just some deaths, many ill, and a newly collapsed economy. Not the kind of buying opportunity anyone wants)

Plus:

“Daily average of new coronavirus infections has doubled in 3-week stretch”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-case-numbers-rising-legislature-returns-1.5720931

Kids are supposed to be going back to schools this week, but many parents are scrambling last minute in Peel Region to go online instead. Too scared now.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/peel-school-board-delays-online-school-launch-after-thousands-switch-to-virtual-learning-1.5103058

This is looking undeniable.

Second Wave.

Can this result in anything except towards another total lockdown within the next 1-3 weeks?

Right as we prepare for a long fall/winter quarantining indoors.

Then what happens to the economy?

If you haven’t sold your property, I would suggest bail out right now, this week. If you still can.

How can this not get so much worse in the weeks ahead?

*******************************************(

Switch to decaf and settle down.

#64 YouKnowWho on 09.14.20 at 8:13 pm

Well, here is a thought that I haven’t heard expressed. Well said Garth. So what changed that it was crazy then and it’s normal now during a pandemic no less.

In the midst of economic collapse, real estate values in the GTA (for example) have just surpassed those of 2017 – when governments thought things were so out of control that new rules were required.

#65 Chimingin on 09.14.20 at 8:14 pm

Jeremy. Please calm down. Stop listening to unions, at least. If I didn’t know better I would think you were a flunky from public health. I know, I used to work there. Still in recovery from it, years later.

#66 Neo on 09.14.20 at 8:21 pm

If rates do not rise, prepare for the slide into depression. – Garth

Garth,

Rates have risen once since 2008 and abruptly went even lower than 2008. There is nothing to prepare for. We are already in it. CB policy is the only thing propping up this nonsense.

#67 Blacksheep on 09.14.20 at 8:22 pm

Cl # 54,

“Only savers could crash the market by withdrawing all cash savings.”
—————————-
Pssst……

The chartered banks don’t need your cash to make loans, the new funds (deposits) are created out of thin air, based on the mortgagors signature.
————————-
Quotes from the 2014 BoE pdf:

“This article explains how the majority of money in the modern economy is created by commercial
banks making loans.”

“Money creation in practice differs from some popular misconceptions — banks do not act simply
as intermediaries, lending out deposits that savers place with them, and nor do they ‘multiply up’
central bank money to create new loans and deposits.”

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf la=en&hash=9A8788FD44A62D8BB927123544205CE476E01654

#68 Keyboard Smasher on 09.14.20 at 8:39 pm

>Trump? The November 3rd election may not be decided on that day. Or in that month. Or this year.

I believe you are close to the truth.

It is probable that the socialist, anarchists and Democrat Party forces will win in November. How? Simple. The Democrats have a master plan to win by cheating their way to victory through unsolicited mail-in ballots. These are quite different from absentee ballots for which there are well established procedures for verifying identities. In the mail-in ballots now pushed by the Dems’ operations centers vast numbers of unsolicited and fully active ballots are and will be sent to every possible addressee. So far, a lot of dead people have been included in the mailings as well as dead pets. These unguided missiles can be gathered up in ballot harvesting operations and voted to provide the desired result. People are surprised that Trump said that maybe his supporters should vote early and often?

Since the states are constitutionally in control of federal elections, I don’t see a way to stop the mail-in ballot chicanery.

#69 Ms. Fool on 09.14.20 at 8:50 pm

@ #58 the Jaguar on 09.13.20 at 7:37 pm

Where could you possible be going? Seriously. I have a busy life but I’m addicted to this blog (who doesn’t?) and I read it everyday. The quick-witted comments of some regulars are part of the experience and very much appreciated. I miss some of the smart blog dogs who stopped posting and suddenly disappeared for whatever reason. I think this is perhaps a small reflection of what is happening in this country and in the world: the voice of reason and dissent is going silent. It seems the trolls, ignorance and hate are winning the battle. If nobody stands up for what is right and do/say the right thing, society will go down the drain.

Thank you Garth for not giving up on us, yet, and for being a leading light during all these years.

F36QC

#70 Comrade on 09.14.20 at 8:57 pm

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.20 at 7:20 pm

@#50 Comrade
“I guess helicopter parents are in the decision making positions now.”

+++++

Not to worry Trudeau has “Helicopter Money” coming soon…. Billions raining from the sky.

——
I wish this was a joke, but it is real that cannot be more real.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7330923/coronavirus-affordable-housing/

UBI and free housing for all! Am I too naive to think that someone actually has to work?! or work is so last century.

#71 cto on 09.14.20 at 9:03 pm

its a trap???
Gees Garth. How long are you going to keep saying this.?
They have manipulated the entire system to reward debters and speculators…and they will not stop…
Rates at 0, and money printing to 2030…
Change cpi as needed …

#72 BC Renovator on 09.14.20 at 9:05 pm

Where are all the chirpers now that were saying foreigners drove up the price of housing and caused all the fomo! Not a chance. It was your average YVR/YYZ Canuck.

Not sure if prices will ever really correct, Canadians are obsessed with Real Estate

#73 SoggyShorts on 09.14.20 at 9:06 pm

#127 Ronaldo on 09.14.20 at 7:29 pm
#115 SoggyShorts

When I worked minimum wage 20 years ago (~$5) I bought a $1,000 used car after 3 years and had 3 room mates.
—————————————————————-
I believe the minimum wage back then was around 8.75 in Canada. What province were you working in then?
*******************************
I remember getting that sweet sweet raise in ’98 :-)
I think I was still at min wage in early ’99 too, but I don’t remember getting that extra two bits.

Alberta 1-Sep-05 $7.00
Alberta 1-Oct-99 $5.90
Alberta 1-Apr-99 $5.65
Alberta 1-Oct-98 $5.40
Alberta 1-Apr-92 $5.00
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/390ee890-59bb-4f34-a37c-9732781ef8a0

#74 Grasshopper on 09.14.20 at 9:10 pm

Is the price of Real Estate going up?

Or is it just the value of the Canadian Dollar going down?

#75 Ace Goodheart on 09.14.20 at 9:17 pm

Sixth week. 1.95 million. Still sitting.

The usual Bloor West two + walk in hall closet/ bedroom house with a small back yard, no front yard and some dodgy, home made Reno’s.

This one has the added bonus of an extra 8 feet of frontage, purposed as a single car drive way with….the Holy Grail….the Bloor West winning lottery ticket…a garage!!!!

And no sale.

You can bet your great uncle’s ash urn that a hundred million people want to buy this house.

Maybe a hundred billion.

98% of the world’s population would say “OK” to living here, if the price was right.

But it isn’t.

Folks have hit a high price cap. Just a hair under 1.8 million.

Anything over that, you are breathing rare air. Mount Everest stuff. No one up there with you. You have the place all to yourself.

Like going to an auction for a piece of Kooky Byrnes memorabilia.

You will be the only one there (Oh Kooky man, kooky man, lend me your comb!).

In other news, I found ten dollars at the local Walmart.

At first I was quite happy. A tenner. That is something. Not a twenty, but still.

Then I start thinking, what can you actually buy with this?

Turns out, not much.

They say they need to lower interest rates to nothing to create inflation.

I say, Viola Desmond says different.

That tenner is worthless. Hardly worth stopping to pick it up off the ground

#76 TurnerNation on 09.14.20 at 9:23 pm

I’ve found shocking footage of young people having fun. We must put a stop to this! No fun allowed in the New System.

Christie Pits Party September 10th 2020 Toronto Canada
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fkZT2OYN70

#77 zoey on 09.14.20 at 9:24 pm

Its a trap. The BoC has kept rates low for 10years , inflating housing for 10years, The BoC is irresponsible…
I would love to see housing crash finally.

#78 Steven Rowlandson on 09.14.20 at 9:26 pm

“Use cheap rates to reduce, consolidate and trash debt, not borrow more. It’s a trap.”

Exactly what government should have done but didn’t.
Except when Paul Martin had some say in the matter.
Perhaps our politicians in federal and provincial capitals think government borrowing is just another form of taxation of those silly enough to buy bonds who think they won’t be holding the bag when the debt gets too big to pay down or pay interest on. This will not end well at all the way things are going.

#79 MF on 09.14.20 at 9:28 pm

1 Millennial 1%er on 09.14.20 at 5:01

I enjoy your posts but you have to understand the US has the same problems plus.

Taxes are far from the whole story for any country.

MF

#80 binky barnes on 09.14.20 at 9:41 pm

King Justin, the Teflon Man, has it all figured out my friends. The country is in capable hands.

#81 Stan Brooks on 09.14.20 at 9:43 pm

Repeating a lie over and over does not make it a truth.

We must be truly desperate to repeat lie after lie after lie.

We are one of the least indebted government in the world? Sure. As we count federal debt only conveniently ‘forgetting’ about provincial and municipal debt. This is becoming a pattern among the ‘economists’ and the professional lairs/bs-ers in government.

There is ‘demand’ for government debt?
Of course, through ‘mandated’ investment for your pension fund as it is ‘safe’ and through ‘purchases’ from BoC/the main/the only ‘source of government financing’ as of lately.

And that ‘demand for debt’ keeps interest rates low?
This giant lie along with the lie about ‘the core inflation’
is the biggest problem as it becomes more and more difficult to maintain. With cost of living going up in double digits you can’t have zero rates. Period.

Desperate attempts to make a broken economy look sound and a bust look like an economic boom.

We can’t hide the ‘chronic productivity deficit’ and we are not addressing the root cause for it – the ‘connected’ profit extraction oligopolies in every sector` – retail, telecom, banking, insurance etc.

The projection of low rates for a very long time combined with aggressive money printing is the cherry on the cake.

And as the ‘economy is on fire’ the ‘balanced budget’ is ‘many years out’ apparently.

Load on lubricant folks.

Cheers,

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.20 at 9:44 pm

Schools and daycares closing again because of smoke.
Freeland send the bills to Trump.
Having the States as a neighbor is becoming a pain in the butt.

#83 Jerry Stapleton on 09.14.20 at 9:45 pm

It has been a trap for at least 20 years now. I will explain. Here it is, 7% to 8% 5 year mortgages rates back in 2000 and now 1.65% to 2.30% 5 year mortgage rates.

What happened when all world with coordinated central banks crashed the bond market yields and interest rates from mortgages to GIC’s, savings accounts etc., house prices have been pushed up artificially by 300% to 350% at the very least in most markets, some up 400%.

Look at the real estate prices versus interest rates, it is almost a perfect see saw relationship, 1.65% to 2.20%*3.00 or 3.50 times is 4.95%, 5.77% to 6.6%, 7.70%. Many Canadians, Americans, Australians, Brits etc. worldwide citizens just gulped down the kool aid of lower to lower to ultra low interest rates and high debt levels.

The ultimate payback is coming through socialism. It is called the new green steal and Liberal Trudeau, Freeland are going to destroy Canada and all our lives. Remember all the so called conspiracy nuts, tin foil hats made fun of decades ago. Remember, it could never happen. Never say never.

#84 TurnerNation on 09.14.20 at 9:46 pm

Blockchain – I came across this. What I’ve been noticing for months.
Real easy: as animals our feeding, breeding, movements to be controlled. This is a big tax farm we’re on.

You see , you never get your freedoms back in the same fashion. Ever. Sports stadiums too will remain closed until you submit more. This has been planned out for years, decades. Blockchain: the technology we use for absolutely nothing. But this. The new CV caste system.
The WE crew as usual:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/covid-19-passport-app-health-travel-covidpass-quarantine-event/
Rising COVID-19 infection rates pose a threat to global tourism.
A new app acts as a health passport for travellers who are virus-free.
Using blockchain technology, it provides an encrypted record of test results.
Its creators say it could allow healthy travellers to avoid quarantine.
The app could also allow sports and entertainment venues to reopen safely, as well as the global conference and exhibition industry.

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.20 at 9:52 pm

Schools and daycares are closing again because of the smoke?
Freeland should send the bills to Trump.
Having a neighbor like the States is becoming a pain in the butt.

#86 Stan Brooks on 09.14.20 at 10:05 pm

More lies, served with ‘confidence and expertise’, building ‘trust’ in the uber stupid sheeple:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-inflation-doesnt-feel-low-080000165.html

For BoC ‘rents are failing in the last 5 years’.
Housing is not a consumer good but ‘investment’ hence only interest payments count in CPI.

Food is of course getting more and more expensive which is impossible to hide even with all the substitution and ‘package management’ tricks.

There are a few cherries on the cake in this web of lies here:

1. The statement that inflation is ‘good’ and lack of inflation ‘bad’.

2. That the pored ‘suffer less’. That is right folks, the poorest are the happiest so expect more from the same policies.

3. The ‘perception’ of inflation is actually causing inflation. Not the ultra stupid monetary and debt policies. Why then does not BoC acknowledge inflation in it’s attempts to ‘boost it’ but rather openly lies about lack of such?

The expectation that perception and public opinion management will work in these conditions is rather pathetic but hey, this is what is left now that the ponzi debt scheme is quickly unraveling and all the ‘wealth’ quickly disapperaing.

Cheers,

#87 Stan Brooks on 09.14.20 at 10:10 pm

the link to the lies about the debt:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-chiefs-said-warn-trudeau-153547558.html

#88 Ace Goodheart on 09.14.20 at 10:18 pm

I think T2 is out.

Practical realities.

Those pesky little bugs in your ear.

Telling you that you can’t actually do what you are planning to do.

T2’s kryptonite is the green energy industry.

The folks who promise us a fresh, new, clean future of zero carbon energy. A wonderful new power source, to meet the world’s energy needs.

Problem is, they are lying.

The sun is not as hot as it used to be. Back when the dinosaurs ruled this planet, and tropical forests grew on Antartica, we used to get a lot more sunlight.

All that sunlight is stored in fossil fuels. We have used it to create a global population boom. Billions of people who could never have been supported by our sun’s diminished energy, all living thanks to the wonders of modern hydro carbon extraction.

Turn off that tap, and 1/2 or more of the world’s current population has to die.

T2’s plan is windmills, solar cells and biomass.

Canada is already mostly deforested so the greens are a bit late for the biomass bus. Not many trees left to cut down and burn.

Wind and solar both rely on sunlight. There is no way T2 is going to power Canada on wind and solar.

But look at Norway. All electric!

Yeah. But where do they get the electricity?

Fossil fuels.

He is done. A dreamer.

He hasn’t got the answer.

We are not going to power our homes and charge our electric cars on wind and solar.

And there are just not enough trees left to burn.

The Emperor has no clothes.

#89 Dirty Dan on 09.14.20 at 10:18 pm

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.20 at 9:52 pm
Schools and daycares are closing again because of the smoke?
Freeland should send the bills to Trump.

Why? So Trump can forward them to the state governors to control their puppets? Why not just send the bills direct?

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/09/man-arrested-arson-washington-state-caught-highway-setting-fire-lighter/

#90 Midnights on 09.14.20 at 10:31 pm

It’s all about the data CDC.
https://youtu.be/ElN5nlGUAi8

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.20 at 10:36 pm

#68 Keyboard Smasher on 09.14.20 at 8:39 pm
>Trump? The November 3rd election may not be decided on that day. Or in that month. Or this year.

I believe you are close to the truth.

It is probable that the socialist, anarchists and Democrat Party forces will win in November. How? Simple. The Democrats have a master plan to win by cheating their way to victory through unsolicited mail-in ballots. These are quite different from absentee ballots for which there are well established procedures for verifying identities. In the mail-in ballots now pushed by the Dems’ operations centers vast numbers of unsolicited and fully active ballots are and will be sent to every possible addressee. So far, a lot of dead people have been included in the mailings as well as dead pets. These unguided missiles can be gathered up in ballot harvesting operations and voted to provide the desired result. People are surprised that Trump said that maybe his supporters should vote early and often?

Since the states are constitutionally in control of federal elections, I don’t see a way to stop the mail-in ballot chicanery.
—————-
Keyboard Smasher.
You must be smashing your head violently against the keyboard.
Probably suffering from concussions.
Nothing else can explain the nonsense that you’re posting.

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.20 at 10:39 pm

@#70 Comrade
“Am I too naive to think that someone actually has to work?! or work is so last century.”

++++

i’d say only Millennial Surrealist or our Prime Minister can answer that……..

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.20 at 10:44 pm

@#85 Ponzie preamble
“Schools and daycares are closing again because of the smoke?
Freeland should send the bills to Trump.”

++++

Ahahahaha.
Yeah right.
Good luck with that.
I believe Chrystia’s “Trade agreement” lasted about as long as it took the Americans to slap us with Aluminum sanctions……

But the Trudeau govt is going to huff and puff their indignation tomorrow

#94 Ronaldo on 09.14.20 at 10:51 pm

“I’m not going to take this anymore”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwMVMbmQBug

#95 Dr V on 09.15.20 at 12:41 am

84 TN

“….you never get your freedoms back in the same fashion. Ever. Sports stadiums too will remain closed…”

*****************************************

Hey TN check out this college football game at Kansas state. The crazies do a good job of social distancing in the end zone……yeah not so good around mid-field.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uqT7ZS3UU4&ab_channel=VictorsValiant

#96 Slap yo Mama on 09.15.20 at 12:45 am

One group forgotten in this are the richly paid civil servants whose salaries haven’t skipped a beat during the pandemic even though they stay at home and are on full pay and benefits to do no work, nothing, nada. They can continue to buy and buy and buy without a concern or care.

The very wealthy and coddled socially superior among us include the unpopular benefits to large families receiving ‘relocation benefits’ plus generous per child benefits, when many in this group have six to ten children.

If you were receiving ten thousand plus plus plus $500 p/m kiddie dough with absolute guarantee that you’ll never be cut off, wouldn’t you be first in line to glutton down on a new house or two, or three?

Special interest groups living off government largesse for political purposes form a very large percentage of the population now, more than 20%. The rest of us are here as sheep to be sheared. After all, if the population grows 400,000 ++++ every year and the majority of those need government support to make it to the voting booth, who’s going to pay for them to live, where? They don’t have enough hotel rooms in the country to follow the math to a sadly obvious conclusion. Houses are being bought by persons with no income other than government support.

Unlike the USA where conglomerates like Marriot Homes and Blackwood Investors, there are no such entities in Canada buying up houses as investment or rental stock. Quite the opposite. Canadian landlords in the USA are evicting tenants as fast as they can. If you don’t understand why, it’s simple, tax filing.

https://www.dailynews.com/2020/09/14/eviction-filings-by-big-landlords-surged-after-trump-issued-ban/

#97 Nonplused on 09.15.20 at 1:03 am

#73 SoggyShorts on 09.14.20 at 9:06 pm
#127 Ronaldo on 09.14.20 at 7:29 pm
#115 SoggyShorts

When I worked minimum wage 20 years ago (~$5) I bought a $1,000 used car after 3 years and had 3 room mates.
—————————————————————-
I believe the minimum wage back then was around 8.75 in Canada. What province were you working in then?
*******************************
I remember getting that sweet sweet raise in ’98 :-)
I think I was still at min wage in early ’99 too, but I don’t remember getting that extra two bits.

Alberta 1-Sep-05 $7.00
Alberta 1-Oct-99 $5.90
Alberta 1-Apr-99 $5.65
Alberta 1-Oct-98 $5.40
Alberta 1-Apr-92 $5.00
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/390ee890-59bb-4f34-a37c-9732781ef8a0

—————————-

The thing is that in 1992 it wasn’t hard to find a job that paid more than minimum wage. In 1984 at the age of 16 I landed a job paying $10/hr in a lumber yard because I could a) swing a hammer (they were building out a new bay and lumber yard and the owner liked to stack stuff), b) cut customer requests straight and without burning on a table saw, c) tell fir from oak, and d) drive the forklift. I also learned many other tricks like how to roll arborite so it’ll fit in a trunk but I didn’t come into the job with those skills. Oh I also got to clean all the tar off the boss’s wife’s Porsche after she drove it through a construction zone. Oh well 10 bucks is 10 bucks.

Many of my adult coworkers were supporting their families working at said lumber yard. Today I think a much larger percent of the population is working at minimum wage than did back then.

#98 TRON on 09.15.20 at 2:08 am

It makes sense to buy a home somewhere in the US where you want to live. 30 year mortgage at these current rates is the bargain of the century. In Canada potentially risky for a number of reasons. First, cost of everything is going up everywhere because fiat currency is devaluing. Your renewal in 5 years may not be so cheap. If you want to make great returns buy gold royalty stocks, wait 3-5 years and buy that dream home for much less.

#99 TRON on 09.15.20 at 2:11 am

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.20 at 9:52 pm

Of course Trump started all those fires between tweets. He sure is an easy button for all things that hurt feelings.

#100 april on 09.15.20 at 2:36 am

#58 – sometimes the price is listed below average to get a bidding war… realtor tricks to fool the gullible public.

#101 april on 09.15.20 at 2:56 am

#58 – right on! … but was the home priced low to start a bidding war? realtor tricks… then brag that it sold for over asking.

#102 David on 09.15.20 at 3:24 am

I rent in a high end area of Vancouver , Kerrisdale . Last year there were never any “For Rent” signs, now there are “For Rent” signs in medium and high end locations, in quantity. What happened to the renters, did they decide to go out and buy? or have they had to move to cheaper rental locations due to loss of income?

#103 maxx on 09.15.20 at 6:32 am

WFH devotees don’t seem to get that non-electronic face time is where most critical intel is traded and many career futures decided. That’s happening right now.

WFH is great if you’re content with getting what you get, but the inevitable trend has begun:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/sep/15/uk-redundancies-unemployment-wages-furlough-covid-19-ocado-oil-stock-markets-business-live?page=with:block-5f6060ff8f089bbb2677ea4d#block-5f6060ff8f089bbb2677ea4d

Even Canada can’t cover the exposed personal debt come the inevitable job losses, despite what TPTB foam at the mouth about on MSM. Corporations are in agony and will do whatever is necessary to survive.

Given the debt levels in this country, all stops should be pulled to preserve income to pay it off.

Many debt snorflers have a casino mentality and a complete blind spot to the horrors of being old and poor.

#104 Justin S on 09.15.20 at 7:00 am

What does that ‘Toronto_CA’ poster and others have to say about this? Looks like Garth was right – not at all sustainable. I agreed with him all along. I feel bad for those who fled to the boonies to WFH ‘permanently’ LOL

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-14/at-jpmorgan-productivity-falls-for-younger-employees-at-home

#105 Armpit on 09.15.20 at 7:05 am

Inflation will increase interest rates, which will hurt real estate values. Maybe you should try woodworking, or something. – Garth
——————–

This time, it’s different my friend. I sense interest rates will remain low while Inflation will be up – to encourage spending today as prices will be higher tomorrow.

You sense wrong.- Garth

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.20 at 7:55 am

@#102 David
“……..Vancouver , Kerrisdale . Last year there were never any “For Rent” signs, now there are “For Rent” signs in medium and high end locations, in quantity.”

++++++

I’m noticing “For Sale” signs on newer used cars parked in nice residential neighborhoods all over the Lower Brainland.
Its started.
Give it 6 months…. the nauseating reality of seized assets, bankruptcy, etc will start to dawn on the Greaterfools….
Panic time….or an election…..either way.
Not good.

#107 Captain Uppa on 09.15.20 at 8:44 am

I am thinking about taking 100K out of my home at a five or ten year rate. If I do 5, it’s an extra $40 a week which is easily serviceable. I’d take that 100K and put it into my B&D 60/40.

I can’t see how I can go wrong.

#108 Phylis on 09.15.20 at 8:52 am

I’m missing where the velocity of money is created. Lower rates, houses more expensive. Carrying cost are lower, more income to spend. Inflation occurs. Rates go up. Less income to spend. Nullified. Seems to be what happened the last time interest rates momentarily tried to rise. Are we just stuck in a multi year cycle? Can monetary policy split to set rates for Realestate independently from other investment purposes?

#109 Ace Goodheart on 09.15.20 at 8:59 am

Based on readily available info online I was able to calculate the risk of getting a hard case of COVID if you:

A) practice mandatory masking and;

B) take 2000 ui of vitamin D per day.

Your percentage chance is really, really low.

Thinking I might just not get vaccinated with a mostly untested, rushed into production vaccine and just keep doing what I am doing. 2000 ui of vitamin D per day. Mask on whenever outdoors.

#110 robert james on 09.15.20 at 9:02 am

U.S. BIKER RALLY MAY HAVE LED TO 260,000 NEW COVID-19 CASES: STUDY https://www.iheartradio.ca/610cktb/news/u-s-biker-rally-may-have-led-to-260-000-new-covid-19-cases-study-1.13438805 Some people are too ******* stupid to live… As long these idiots stay on their side of the 49th so be it..

#111 MF on 09.15.20 at 9:12 am

Slap yo Mama on 09.15.20 at 12:45

What a joke of a post.

Any proof/stats that government workers form 20% of the population? Any proof they are buying houses (I thought it was foreigners)? Any proof new Canadians don’t work their butt off to able to afford a home? Any proof all new Canadians are on government support?

You know what, I don’t think you actually know a single new Canadian. I think you made all that up (seriously).

MF

#112 Kirk S on 09.15.20 at 9:22 am

Barring a meteorite crash , systems don’t erase themselves overnight, even with pandemics. Also, of course seismic events like this cannot result in a sustained “normal “, no matter how hard the CBs and Gov. are trying to perpetuate it. Guaranteed many are going to lose their shirt over the next several years,and those few that can afford to sit back and wait for opportunities will profit. But, yes, the interest rates will rise and we are not entering into some fairy land of negative interest. The world economy doesn’t work that way, although many in present Government seem hell bent on convincing the public otherwise.

#113 Q2 Duplex Drive on 09.15.20 at 9:28 am

Spot on, Garth. Well said.

#114 YouKnowWho on 09.15.20 at 9:32 am

#62 Nonplused

Also, an update from Costco here in Calgary where masks are mandatory indoors. Well, they don’t work if they are wrapped around your chin or don’t cover your nose.

—————–

I CANNOT believe I’m reading this from you Nonplused.

Garth, forgive me, but there needs to be logic to the whole thing about masks, so I have to talk about it.

Nonplused, the discussion of MASK or NO-MASK is a vivid one, and as usual the issue is being turned into black and white issues, when agreement can be found in the middle grey area. That middle ground is MASK but with NOSE EXPOSED.

Science is firmly with this approach as well, and it is the perfect compromise. Why?

– Message around masks from scientific community has been full of deception from the start.
-They told us at the start “NO NEED FOR MASKS.”
-Then they said “Yeah, protect yourself with masks, ignoring the clear peer-reviewed science showing that masks like public wears offer at best protection within margin of error of all research conducted on masks. Even the best N95 masks are still 5% ineffective in the end, right?
– Now the message is “MASKS TO PROTECT OTHERS.”

I can live with that last one. We spit when we talk and it is understood that any cold/flu/CV transmission happens often via this method or spittle.

If you look at any slo-mo videos of a sneeze or a cough you will notice the entire explosive force exits via the mouth – so it makes sense to cover the mouth to stop those droplets.

However, I want to breathe! I need to breathe! Guess what? You do too!

And these masks are a HUGE reduction in your lungs ability to move air in and out. And your body starts doing all kinds of weird stuff when oxygen levels are reduced – even by 5 or 10%. Dizziness, light headedness, weakness, irritability, etc. etc. You can’t just ignore issues related to not getting enough oxygen into your body. We’re talking about breathing here!

So, for sake of proper oxygen intake quantity exposing the nose for air-intake is a perfect compromise.

If a person is going to refuse to wear a mask, I think we can agree that it is better they wear one and uncover the nose than have none at all in this push for mask compliance to protect others.

The individual gets the air they want and deserve.
They are protecting others against the spittle they exhale.

WIN-WIN

Also, there will not be a confrontation, and they won’t have to talk to you about the reasons why they don’t want to wear a mask, thus opening their lips and talking moistly at you. Right there – another win.

SO, don’t get all worked up over exposed noses. It is a logical and scientifically supported compromise.

#115 Captain Uppa on 09.15.20 at 9:36 am

Well, looks like JP Morgan wants people back to the office.

Point for “against WFH”.

Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-14/at-jpmorgan-productivity-falls-for-younger-employees-at-home

#116 TurnerNation on 09.15.20 at 9:39 am

War on small business continues. These “Policy” think-tanks and NGOs pretty must run the show, pull the strings. Why not we have no sitting Federal democracy anyway.

https://huddle.today/halifax-chamber-ceo-says-businesses-cant-afford-15-minimum-wage/

“Sullivan was responding to the recent report published by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, which claims a living wage in Halifax is now $21.80 per hour. In Saint John, the living wage is $19.55. The report called on more businesses to start paying employees a living wage and called on governments to increase the minimum wage to $15 an hour over the next two years.”

***
Our elite rulers can and will order small business closed again. Greatest asset grab since 2008. Known since March/April – hey guys still clapping at 7pm or only wearing your Freedom Masks (in the hopes your freedoms are restored?)

—-
“#65 TurnerNation on 04.14.20 at 5:05 pm
….
– Small business owners – employers – are systematically being wiped out.
Day by day. The weeks go on. Our elite rulers never will speak of our release.
No the RED numbers on the tell-Lie-vision always go up, validating our confinement. No one is dying of anything else.
– Healthy people are considered sick and must be avoided”

#117 Abc123 on 09.15.20 at 10:26 am

Abc123 on 09.14.20 at 4:39 pm
Zero and negative rates are a lock in the coming few years .

Therefore , so are higher RE prices .

Buy now or regret it later .

The Bank of Canada has given no indication rates going negative and logic dictates they will rise with economic recovery. You are suffering from recency bias. – Garth
———

Real estate is the goose that keeps laying the proverbial golden egg for Canada . The BOC , whether they admit it or not publicly , will not kill it under any circumstances. That means low interest rates , negative or not for longer that you and I will stay above land ( pun intended)

My ‘regency bias ‘ affliction now arguably 25 years plus and running ,has kept me on the correct side of the trade .

Rates will rise with economic recovery in 2022 or 2023. There is no alternative. – Garth

#118 TurnerNation on 09.15.20 at 10:33 am

The focus is on children, distorting and training them into the New System. Chaos, closed schools, parents scrambling. We must be kept off balance until more of the New System is rolled out. Think dependence upon the state: free money, housing and drugs.

As some have noted, how many Amazon and Walmart warehouses and distribution centers have been closed due to “Case numbers”?? Haha as if. Never ever. They are playing us so hard. The show must go on. This will last into 2021.

#119 YouKnowWho on 09.15.20 at 10:36 am

#110 robert james on 09.15.20 at 9:02 am
U.S. BIKER RALLY MAY HAVE LED TO 260,000 NEW COVID-19 CASES: STUDY https://www.iheartradio.ca/610cktb/news/u-s-biker-rally-may-have-led-to-260-000-new-covid-19-cases-study-1.13438805 Some people are too ******* stupid to live… As long these idiots stay on their side of the 49th so be it..

————————-

robert james, I’m vent…here comes, are you ready?

You know how a BMW aligns you with yuppies and the better off apparently…because marketing says so?

Harleys align you with a low IQ level. PERIOD!

Harleys make absolutely NO SENSE. I’m going to generalize here, but with this net of generalization I’m going to capture the vast majority of Harley owners whom I have encountered on the road riding bikes. Don’t get me wrong, they are jolly folks. But they are stuck in a typewriter world that doesn’t exist anymore. I understand RETRO, don’t get me wrong, but Harleys to me is like the rebellion of the Mennonites. Move forward already Harley Owners – would you?

They are for rebells without a clue. They appreciate motorcycle technology from a century ago and their inability to recognize improvements to motorcycles show ignorance and refusal to move forward. Like insisting to owning a Model T Ford in today’s world. They make incredible amount of inconsiderate noise without any reason. Any true motorcycle rider will tell you that he beauty of the motorcycle is in the performance. The unity between man and machine. The engagement and feedback from the road. The attention and skill required to operate it well. Harleys are called hogs for a reason – they are heavy and sluggish. They are slow off the line and basically any Harley can be dropped off the line by a Corvette – what’s the point? They handle terribly and are a danger to the rider if they tip or crash because of the weight. However, this Harley fat weight is a “saving grace” for owners of Harley’s you see, because it slows everything down so that the slow sluggish individual, usually not at all fit as you have seen on the road yourself, and quite often belly equipped and overweight rider can just about handle the machine with the slow handling, slow shifts, slow inputs required to move it forward. Associated with drug culture, as if there is anything cool about substance abuse (Humans are so damn backwards!). They don’t lean the Harleys into turns either so to avoid scaring themselves. Harley riders ride in a straight line, because that’s all they can do. The go slow into turns and a 30 degree lean is the limit of their ability, usually less to avoid pooping pants. Pay attention on the road and you’ll see it yourself.

To summarize:
What did you expect from these Harley owners robert james? Did you expect anything else?

By owning a Harley you already illustrated poor decision making process. You chose an outdated, inefficient machine that as optimal feature is really good at converting gasoline to noise and little else. You probably bought it for the appearance of a rebel, when really you can’t ride well, therefore you can’t ride a real motorcycle of any ability and you’re not a rebel at all. Your poor evaluation and decision making on motorcycle hardware choice is clearly an indication that you’re likely to make poor decisions overall. You are a following not an independent thinker. You want to fit in with some scene of tough guys by posing like a look-a-like. You actually think handle bar tassels on your motorcycle make you look tough – just like the tassels on the little girl’s pink bicycle she got for her 3rd birthday make her look bad to the bone.

I am highly suspect of anyone who rides a Harley and usually will find that just about any decision that Harley owning individual makes is one that runs counter to logic. Just like I wouldn’t trust a man with a ponytail, I do not trust decisions of a Harley owner. And if you encounter a guy with a ponytail riding a Harley…RUN in the other direction immediately!

Ponytail, Harley, Handlebar Tassels? JACKPOT!

#120 Dharma Bum on 09.15.20 at 11:03 am

To prevent the “second wave” of COVID19, immediately round up and lock down the current offenders.

Those idiots that are having large gatherings like weddings, worship sessions, love-ins, parties, clubfests, protests, and similar events that bring large groups into close proximity are the ones causing the virus to proliferate.

Fine them, and stick them into mandatory quarantine with monitored ankle bracelets for 3 months. They can have friends or relatives drop food packages at their doorsteps.

These are the fools that are spiking the number of cases.

Lock ’em up!

Also, Costco should extend “seniors hour” from the first hour of opening, to NOON every day. I don’t like getting out of bed before 10 am.

And LCBO needs to get back to 7 days a week with extended hours. It’s an essential service, *hic*.

#121 DownToFinance on 09.15.20 at 11:06 am

Garth, JPow came out and said recently the Fed may let inflation run above 2% before hiking interest rates for the next little while. Do you see the BOC following suit?

#122 Real Men Drive Kias and Wear Man Buns, They Don't Ride Harleys on 09.15.20 at 11:12 am

#119 YouKnowWho

NAILED IT!

I find these days that the average Harley rider I see is about 65, white-haired, overweight, unemployable, with an intelligence quotient below average and likely a Trump supporter.

What a great brand to identify with………er, not.

#123 Don Guillermo on 09.15.20 at 11:17 am

#89 Dirty Dan on 09.14.20 at 10:18 pm
#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.20 at 9:52 pm
Schools and daycares are closing again because of the smoke?
Freeland should send the bills to Trump.

Why? So Trump can forward them to the state governors to control their puppets? Why not just send the bills direct?

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/09/man-arrested-arson-washington-state-caught-highway-setting-fire-lighter/

********************************************
“the claim that California’s fires are caused by climate change is misleading. Translated into policy, it would steer the state to the worst way to prevent future fires.
Californian fires are slowly coming back to their prehistoric state because of the enormous excess fuel load. Putting up solar panels and using biofuels will be costly but do virtually nothing to fix this problem. Even if the ­entire United States were to cut all its emissions tomorrow and for the rest of the century — an ­incredibly fanciful and enormously expensive assumption — temperatures would still climb, just 0.3°F less.
The main reason we are now seeing more and bigger fires is because a century of fire suppression has left what researchers call a “fire deficit” — all the fuel that should have burnt but didn’t. It is now waiting to burn even hotter and fiercer.
To fix its wildfire problem, California politicians should focus on the unpopular but effective solution of prescribed burns.”

Bjorn Lomborg

#124 Opee on 09.15.20 at 11:49 am

Government spending. The majority of Canadians are not against billions spent. It’s the transparancy of those dollars, where are they going? so show them line by line! annually! How many new industries starts-ups were supported, how many industries/factories sent abroad because the lack of support, were given support to return and or start over once again in Canada! Other than the auto sector. How many private educational institutions were given a hand up ensuring competition is well and alive across the country in the educational realm. The C party has so many opportunities this time around to make a difference. Wouldn’t a new quarterback, a team leader with a new team be refreshing? A chance to see new plays succeeding, so all Canadians will benefit. Ontario and Quebec are mid-field, let’s get both ends of the country to score and win a great game, for everyone who is contributing. The Next federal election will be a chance to vote what is best for your country.

#125 Slap Yo Mama on 09.15.20 at 11:53 am

#111 MF

Stop it, you’re embarrassing yourself. 20% is just the unionized civil service. Add in the sleazy constituency population weaponized immigration tactics Trudeau’s using to manipulate your elections and steal your democracy, and the number of new Canadians receiving welfare subsidies from government sources alone , and paying zero income tax, take the numbers you deny into an unsustainable section of the nosebleed seats. The question is, who will pay for what amounts to cynical Liberal politics.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-402-x/2011000/chap/gov-gouv/gov-gouv-eng.htm

#126 Stan Brooks on 09.15.20 at 12:00 pm

Rates can not go up, there is no economy to support it.
My bet is that rates will even go negative nominally while the inflation of real stuff aka ‘the cost of living’ increases in double digits yearly.
For a decade or two.

Bankers and government will simply lie about inflation as they have been doing for quite some time.

What bugs me is the difficulty with which the naive and stupid sheeple is struggling to comprehend the end game.
What we perceive as ‘wealth’ currently is an illusion due to monetary policies and current valuations at a point in time that is not sustainable.

A house means nothing, absolutely nothing in a place with no economy and no jobs.

An organic farm in southern Italy or France, even eastern Europe that can be had for a very small percentage of current house or condo valuations in GTA is a darn lottery win.

It won’t last long.

Cheers,

#127 Bill on 09.15.20 at 12:06 pm

For the clueless blaming Trump for the fires.
You obviously have no idea what is really going on.
Maybe stop watching the MM..your IQ will go up.
If gangs like Antifa, BLM or who ever are willing burn buildings, riot and kill people. Why not start fires?
Trump starting fires?…..ridiculous.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/09/12/four-arrested-for-arson-on-the-west-coast-one-a-regular-attendee-of-anti-cop-rallies-in-seattle/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

#128 Rates on 09.15.20 at 12:11 pm

Rates will rise with economic recovery in 2022 or 2023. There is no alternative. – Garth

————————————————————

I really want this to happen but during a 10 year bull market with less than half the government debt, the markets coughed up a lung when they hit a measly 2% in the USA while zero or negative elsewhere. How can they possibly raise them now? We need 6 and 7 percent mortgages (even higher to be frank) for anything to make sense again…NOT even close to happening probably ever without complete economic collapse. Absolutely plausible that they will go negative next year according to my very good friends, 1 an executive at Royal Bank and the other a big wig at TD. Speaking to both of them just this past weekend and they recommended variable rates without hesitation.

CB’s need to be taken to the wood shed. Absolutely destroyed the world’s economies and tried to fix them by pouring more nitro on the fire.

#129 Gonkman on 09.15.20 at 12:18 pm

Cases…Cases..Cases… Who Cares.

Are our hospitals overloaded? Ontario has 50ish people TOTAL in hospitcal with COVID… 32,000 Beds Available.

Now no one should ever die but life sucks… Disease, Accidents and life happens. It sucks that over 9,000 Canadians have died.

But please LOOK at the numbers. They screwed up by not protecting our Seniors. End of Story. If this virus is so deadly then why have only 291 people under ago 60 died in over 6 months? Shouldn’t it be 10,000+???

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html <– Figure 4 Select Deceased

Age distribution of COVID-19 cases deceased in Canada as of September 14, 2020, 7 pm EDT

Age group (years) Number
80+ 6,439 (71.3%)
70-79 1,641 (18.2%)
60-69 656 (7.3%)
50-59 214 (2.4%)
40-49 51 (0.6%)
30-39 15 (0.2%)
20-29 10 (0.1%)
0-19 1 (0.0%)

291 Canadians under the age of 60 have died since this started. Those are working age adults (If you use Garth's take your CPP at 60) rule.

So they shutdown the economy for this. They screwed up and didn't protect Seniors in LTC homes which led to probably over 7,000+ of the deaths.

Locking down again will just cause even more death and misery from other causes.
If you are healthy and scared to go out and function and if you are under 60 you are a sucker. The % of deaths under 60 are less than 1%.

I also believe I read that the person under 19 was a teen who had severe underlying conditions. Tragic… but Life Happens.

#130 Bill on 09.15.20 at 12:23 pm

We are or I should say T2 is doing the same. The socialist agenda is full speed ahead.
Listen to Michigan Republican Congressman Bill Huizenga.
A voice of reason.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/democrats-trying-to-hand-imf-3-trillion-for-globalist-agenda/

#131 Jane Parker on 09.15.20 at 12:37 pm

Abc123, I guess a home equity tax also known as a capital gains tax on primary residences is not going to kill the golden goose. Also, a rise in the capital gains inclusion rate from 50% to 75% raising top marginal income tax rates to 37%-38% combined federally, provincially.

Finally, a 5% or higher federal sales tax or land transfer tax, selling tax is another tax the Canadian real estate housing golden goose is another one the Trudeau, Freeland Federal Liberals are rubbing their hands and smirking.

By the way today reported, Canadian big Banks, lenders are warning Trudeau, Freeland Federal Liberals about high federal, government debt levels does not give them a carte blanche to rack up endless national debt.

Abc 123, Federal Liberals, Trudeau, Freeland are going to be a financial and economic disaster for Canada. Canadian real estate, housing is screwed. The Corona virus is just being used as an excuse for this all and the same high debt, high tax, out of control, never seen before borrowing binge and waste in the Canadian government would of happened by 2025 with them anyways without a corona virus.

#132 cto on 09.15.20 at 12:47 pm

Garth
Regarding post #117 Abc123
“Real estate is the goose that keeps laying the proverbial golden egg for Canada . The BOC , whether they admit it or not publicly , will not kill it under any circumstances.”

12 years ago i would not have agreed with this guy. However over such a lengthy amount of time, these entities clearly have an agenda, seemingly distorting debt into the new currency.

Don’t you think that if inflation rises, they will just re-jig their CPI to reflect the items they want? i’v heard CPI includes 30% for shelter???
If this is true, clearly it should be 60% for shelter. that would substantially change their CPI at current levels.

I, and most westerners have lost trust in government, but now central banks as well…Clearly they must have an agenda, and in this country, it’s pro-housing,…. forever…at any cost…

#133 Craig Paulson on 09.15.20 at 12:50 pm

Don’t forget about Liberal, NDP provincial, municipal governments keep on adding year after year new levies, property taxes, garbage, water, utility, user fess etc. much higher than the 1.5%-2% inflation lie by statscan, BOC. They are in the 5% to 10% range for years now.

It is hundreds to thousands a year in increases so easily in Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Montreal, Quebec City, Ottawa etc. were most Canadian population lives.

Don’t be surprised higher land transfer taxes in Toronto and other governments. Add more H.S.T., higher electricity and utility costs, bills, carbon taxes, green taxes regulation etc. etc.

It will cost in the next 10 years at least an extra $20,000 a year or $30,000 more annual income just to keep a house in Canada. Good luck debt and real estate junkies.

#134 Wrk.dover on 09.15.20 at 1:02 pm

#119 YouKnowWho on 09.15.20 at 10:36 am

——-

Yes, YouKnowWho, you do know what!

Theodore Tugboat syndrome. (look at me ride everybody)

Harleys do make great school scribbler cover doodle art though!

#135 Don Guillermo on 09.15.20 at 1:19 pm

#120 Dharma Bum on 09.15.20 at 11:03 am
To prevent the “second wave” of COVID19, immediately round up and lock down the current offenders.

Those idiots that are having large gatherings like weddings, worship sessions, love-ins, parties, clubfests, protests, and similar events that bring large groups into close proximity are the ones causing the virus to proliferate.

Fine them, and stick them into mandatory quarantine with monitored ankle bracelets for 3 months. They can have friends or relatives drop food packages at their doorsteps.

These are the fools that are spiking the number of cases.

Lock ’em up!

Also, Costco should extend “seniors hour” from the first hour of opening, to NOON every day. I don’t like getting out of bed before 10 am.

And LCBO needs to get back to 7 days a week with extended hours. It’s an essential service, *hic*

*************************************
Here are two graphs from Ontario. One showing Covid cases from mid March until yesterday and one showing Covid deaths from mid March until yesterday.

“If you look at the top graph the sky is falling and masks, social distance, lockdowns, school closures and “stay at home” all make a lot of sense. If you look at the bottom graph, COVID is over.”

https://jaycurrie.wordpress.com/2020/09/14/case-counts-and-lockdowns/

#136 Shirl Clarts on 09.15.20 at 1:37 pm

#135 Don Guillermo on 09.15.20 at 1:19 pm

Yeah, yeah, we get it. You don’t like left. Get going, you’re late for your QAnon rally.

#137 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 09.15.20 at 1:43 pm

#122 Real Men Drive Kias and Wear Man Buns, They Don’t Ride Harleys on 09.15.20 at 11:12 am
#119 YouKnowWho

NAILED IT!

I find these days that the average Harley rider I see is about 65, white-haired, overweight, unemployable, with an intelligence quotient below average and likely a Trump supporter.

What a great brand to identify with………er, not.

/////////

Groups of them always remind me of a hopelessly amateur, geriatric Village People tribute band.

#138 Hookshott on 09.15.20 at 2:01 pm

#127 Bill on 09.15.20 at 12:06 pm
For the clueless blaming Trump for the fires.
You obviously have no idea what is really going on.
Maybe stop watching the MM..your IQ will go up.
If gangs like Antifa, BLM or who ever are willing burn buildings, riot and kill people. Why not start fires?
Trump starting fires?…..ridiculous.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/09/12/four-arrested-for-arson-on-the-west-coast-one-a-regular-attendee-of-anti-cop-rallies-in-seattle/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
……
So Breitbart is your source for “fake news”?

#139 Jeremy on 09.15.20 at 2:02 pm

#135 Don Guillermo on 09.15.20 at 1:19 pm

Here are two graphs from Ontario. One showing Covid cases from mid March until yesterday and one showing Covid deaths from mid March until yesterday.

“If you look at the top graph the sky is falling and masks, social distance, lockdowns, school closures and “stay at home” all make a lot of sense. If you look at the bottom graph, COVID is over.”

https://jaycurrie.wordpress.com/2020/09/14/case-counts-and-lockdowns/

__________

Donny Boy, your reading ability and scientific literacy are low. Shirl said it best – “Yeah, yeah, we get it. You don’t like left. Get going, you’re late for your QAnon rally.”

Look CAREFULLY at the graphs. Then READ the author’s post and his previous posts (which he apparently ignored himself, lol, typically Trumpian loon)

Compare this with other reputable sources.

The death count does NOT rise the instant the case count increases. There is a lag, which has been up to several weeks so far this year.

The balance of probability is that we will see that later this month, based on past experience.

If not, that’s great short-term news, and a scientific mystery to explore.

But certainly there is no reason right now to think we are not heading into a serious second wave based upon case increases.

The national increases reported today are very sobering.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hospitalizations-steady-covid-19-increase-canada-1.5724107

#140 Don Guillermo on 09.15.20 at 2:11 pm

#136 Shirl Clarts on 09.15.20 at 1:37 pm
#135 Don Guillermo on 09.15.20 at 1:19 pm

Yeah, yeah, we get it. You don’t like left. Get going, you’re late for your QAnon rally
*******************************************
I don’t like the “silly left” Shirly. What do you have against data? Doesn’t line up your tender little narratives?

#141 YouKnowWho on 09.15.20 at 2:18 pm

#134 Wrk.dover on 09.15.20 at 1:02 pm

Harleys do make great school scribbler cover doodle art though!

——-

OK, I’ll give you this as another positive feature of Harleys – fun to doodle!

Forgive all the missed words and autocorrections and type-os in the long post. I should have read it over. But you got the gist of it.

#142 YouKnowWho on 09.15.20 at 2:25 pm

#122 Real Men Drive Kias and Wear Man Buns, They Don’t Ride Harleys

———-

Maybe Harley’s real purpose is not to be a motorcycle at all, but a giant prostate massager in disguise as a motorcycle?

#143 Barb on 09.15.20 at 2:33 pm

Now Canada Post is suspending deliveries in areas of BC affected by smoke.

Oh for heaven’s sake, posties…

#144 YouKnowWho on 09.15.20 at 2:41 pm

I found some Harley data out there.

Hope you’re ready for this one. I’m still wiping tears from my eyes after reading this one. Are you sitting down? No really, are you ready for this? Seriously, take a deep breath…ready….ok, no going back now…ready?

“IHS Automotive data says Harley-Davidson still has a 60.2% share of women riders.”

HA HA HA!! Harley Davidson is a girl’s preferred motorcycle brand! That explains the tassels! HA HA HA. OMG! HILARIOUS!
With all the vibration – at least I can understand THAT.

COME ON, how funny is that?

Avg age of rider is 47 years old. HUGE drops in young riders last decade – so there is hope. The young people are looking at the product and are saying “I don’t want my Dad’s heavy, sluggish, slow motorcycle!” Love it! Harley owners are down to only 2% of the under 18 riders, from 8%. 18-24 down to 6% from 16%.

Here is a paradox – 70%+ of Harley owners have post secondary eduction! And yet somehow they don’t give proper thought to what silliness they are buying!

Funny, middle aged dudes buy performance cars, yet when they buy motorcycles they buy slow, overweight, over chromed, overpriced ancient technology…hunk of metal!?

#145 jess on 09.15.20 at 2:49 pm

Trump Says QAnon Movement Likes Him ‘Very Much’

The FBI labelled QAnon a national security threat in 2019, following incidents of violence perpetrated by followers of the theory.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-science/covid-19-often-goes-undiagnosed-in-hospital-workers-virus-may-impair-heart-functions-idUSKBN25R2LK

*** Misinformation floating around online about the science around masks has compounded this issue.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7142266/coronavirus-mask-myths-debunked/

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Europe’s highest court on Tuesday gave its backing to the European Union’s net neutrality rules which require telecoms operators to treat all Internet traffic equally, dealing a blow to the telecoms industry which wants a less restrictive regime.

#146 Bill on 09.15.20 at 2:57 pm

And T2 as he works on taxing your prime Res. cause der bwoke. It never ends.
https://financialpost.com/opinion/jack-m-mintz-make-no-mistake-housing-is-far-from-tax-free/wcm/ac5598a2-d198-4369-8b12-54c7a5a00f15/

#147 Don Guillermo on 09.15.20 at 2:59 pm

#143 Barb on 09.15.20 at 2:33 pm
Now Canada Post is suspending deliveries in areas of BC affected by smoke.

Oh for heaven’s sake, posties…
***********************************
Yikes! How will those folks get their pizza menus and A&W coupons?

#148 jess on 09.15.20 at 3:01 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-11/qanon-website-shuts-down-after-n-j-man-identified-as-operator

the difference between mis/ disinformation

is intent.
Misinformation is false or inaccurate information in a general sense, shared regardless of an intent to mislead.
disinformation is false information that is intentionally shared to mislead.

some indicators are headlines and stories that do any of these things:

Provoke an intense emotional reaction
Seem too good to be true or too bad to be true
Vilify another group

#149 NSNG on 09.15.20 at 3:29 pm

I was surprised to learn that one of the reasons Harleys are so loud is so that drivers are aware of them. Driving a bike is close to deadly at the best of times (I was almost put in the hospital on the back of one as a teenager).

The loud noise from the hogs make it hard for drivers to miss.

#150 robert james on 09.15.20 at 4:01 pm

#119 YouKnowWho on 09.15.20 at 10:36 am My friend from England now living in Canada refers to the Harley crowd as posers.. LOL He has raced in The Isle on Man TT several times in the 70s.. so that is his idea of bikers which I agree with.. If you ever want to see real bikers watch one of the races on You Tube,,, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjOgKIhpI5s&ab_channel=Blinz007MotorcycleTV

#151 april on 09.15.20 at 4:08 pm

#49 – Read Eitel Insights – real estate analysts.

#152 Norman Kennedy on 09.15.20 at 5:05 pm

You said “Five billion dollars is being spent buying up mortgage bonds in Canada. Every single week. ”
FACT CHECK: Between March 17th and September 10th the BOC purchased $7,324,500,000 worth of Canada Mortgage Bonds. That works out to $305 million per week.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/markets/market-operations-liquidity-provision/market-operations-programs-and-facilities/canada-mortgage-bond-purchase-pr ogram/#results

#153 Alex Brothers on 09.16.20 at 10:26 am

Banks now never want people to won their own houses without a huge mortgage. It’s basically a way for big bank to own all the real estate and charge everyone rent (interest), which is a great business model. There will be no motivation to move interest rates higher by federal reserves based on this debt. It will kill the average middle class. Low interest rates are the only thing holding this debt for banks and propping up real estate prices.

#154 stellamonkey on 09.17.20 at 9:32 pm

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