The leap

So here’s where we are.

Interest rates can hardly fall further. Mortgages are 1.5%. It doesn’t get any cheaper. This suggests we hit peak house (above 2017 pricing) last month during the Virus Boom. With no room for rates to fall there is little reason for real estate to inflate.

Second, the economy’s about to become a lot more critical. CERB is ending. Employers expect millions to return to the office, shop or factory floor. Child care expenses, commuting costs, new slacks and haircuts are back in the household budget. (If you think WFH was a permanent thing, you’ll be surprised what the next 18 months bring.)

Third, that exodus to the suburbs will probably end up being a career-killer for many. In any case, it wildly inflated non-urban prices, brought urban rents and condo values down and was the answer to boonie-dwellers’ prayers.

Fourth, there’s a ton of volatility on the way. Second wave – hope not. US electoral paralysis – almost certain. Trudeau/Chrystia spending orgy and political consequences – bet on it. Vaccine – its arrival will be explosive. America – closer to a civil war than at any time in memory. Inflation – a certainty after the world spent $20 trillion fighting a bug.

Fifth, real estate listings could take a turn higher as the deferrals end. In fact, all kinds of mayhem might result, since the number of people missing their payments over the last few month has been seriously under-reported. According to Equifax 1.2 million blew off one or more payments between March and July. There are 8.24 million homeowners in Canada and 44% don’t have a mortgage. Of the 4.7 million with a home loan, therefore, 25% stopped making payments. This is not only massive, it’s more than double the rate in the US – where folks currently carry far less debt.

Mortgage broker rockstar Rob McLister recently estimated 61,000 forced sales could occur as the deferrals shudder to a halt over the next few weeks. But the housing risk could be greater. According to the Equifax analysis (and, yes, they are recording all these deferrals) 600,000 people were still not making payments last month. These borrowers had mortgages 25% larger than the average, lower credit scores and greater leverage. Duh.

“If mass payment forbearance ends as expected next quarter and we do get 60,000+ forced liquidations,” says McLister, “say goodbye to record-high home prices for a while.”

But the deferral cliff is just one reason experts like CHMC are sticking to their forecast of a 20% decline in prices over the months to come. Or more. The list of uncertainties has seldom been as lengthy as it is now. Big job losses. Recession. US electoral crisis. A pandemic. Record debt. Spend-and-tax politicians. At-risk industries. Winter.

Do sane people leverage up and move away from their jobs in days such as these?

Only if they think it’s different this time. (It isn’t.)

149 comments ↓

#1 mj on 09.07.20 at 3:54 pm

it will be interesting to hear what the bank of Canada says this week

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.20 at 4:01 pm

winter…….. in three months……..

#3 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 09.07.20 at 4:04 pm

With all this going on
one can certainly say
Dogs are great
beer iz good
people are crazy

#4 Armpit on 09.07.20 at 4:05 pm

How can these homes be properly appraised to their real value? I wonder if house appraisals for uninsured mortgages are the same as insured mortgages.

Methinks not….

#5 Toronto_CA on 09.07.20 at 4:10 pm

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/07/time-face-facts-office-dead/

Coronavirus has proved a sudden and drastic change of circumstances for millions. Many will be wary of packing into trains and crowded offices for health reasons, not only Covid but the realisation the pandemic has brought of how pervasive are germs and droplets and the people who spread them. Others who wilted in cramped flats during lockdown have sought an airier life in the countryside, out of reach of a daily commute. More are simply relishing the extra time with their families.

And you don’t have to have kids to appreciate the hour or so gifted by not getting on a train every day. For businesses too, the genie is out of the bottle. Why spend millions on office space if your workers are happy to absorb the cost by doing their job just as efficiently from their dining room table? Sure, they miss the interaction and collaboration with colleagues, but increasingly employers are realising this can be maintained by having staff come in only a couple of days a week – or even a month – with all the savings in terms of physical infrastructure.

But the point isn’t that home working is preferable, it’s that it’s inevitable, and even the most altruistic isn’t going to go back to work simply because other people still have to, or because not doing so risks something as theoretical as “the city centre”.

#6 Moonshine on 09.07.20 at 4:11 pm

But the deferral cliff is just one reason experts like CHMC are sticking to their forecast of a 20% decline in prices over the months to come. Or more. The list of uncertainties has seldom been as lengthy as it is now. Big job losses. Recession. US electoral crisis. A pandemic. Record debt. Spend-and-tax politicians. At-risk industries. Winter.

Winter, the last nail in the coffin…

#7 the Jaguar on 09.07.20 at 4:16 pm

‘ new slacks’… Goodness, I was momentarily transported back to the 1960’s reading that. Nearly fell over on my ‘tookus’.
It will be interesting to see how many properties are ‘liquidated’ by owners versus their lending institution. Hopefully those in that unfortunate position realize taking charge of ones own problems is always the intelligent way out.
Nice border collie pic. Intelligence, intensity and determination all evident in the eyes. One occasionally observes this in the human race as well.

#8 KNOW IT ALL on 09.07.20 at 4:17 pm

VOLATILITY means you need CASH to benefit from the OPPORTUNITIES unfolding……

Stay in CASH and wait for the CRASH!!!

No Brainer investments are just around the corner.

#9 YouKnowWho - from PTO on 09.07.20 at 4:22 pm

On 09.06.20,
Limerick Larry, crowdedelevatorfartz and fishman

True poets go light
Haiku is how you battle
Or Greater Fool be

Man walks dog in park
Dog poops man scoops up warm treat
Who serves the master?

Ms. Pac Man gobbles
More debt solution to debt
Fill your emptiness

1st Wave, New Order
Depeche Mode, Smiths, Police
The Cure for next Wave

YouKnowWho is a Haiku King!

#10 Andrewski on 09.07.20 at 4:25 pm

Dissuaded friends from putting in an offer on a home. Their real estate agent, a “friend”, had them wound up that “prices were just skyrocketing and they had to buy before they were priced out of the market“. Yikes!

#11 Limerick Larry on 09.07.20 at 4:44 pm

#9 YouKnowWho – from PTO on 09.07.20 at 4:22 pm
On 09.06.20,
Limerick Larry, crowdedelevatorfartz and fishman

True poets go light
Haiku is how you battle
Or Greater Fool be

Man walks dog in park
Dog poops man scoops up warm treat
Who serves the master?

Ms. Pac Man gobbles
More debt solution to debt
Fill your emptiness

1st Wave, New Order
Depeche Mode, Smiths, Police
The Cure for next Wave

YouKnowWho is a Haiku King!
—————————————————————-

All hail the King! Bravo! This one is for the climate deniers…(I promise I am done with this one Garth, humour me please…:)

They claim climate change is not real,
Just Ottawa’s way of keeping the West under their heel,
So start up the rigs,
And for oil we shall dig,
While future generations get thrown under the wheel.

#12 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.07.20 at 4:47 pm

#10 Andrewski on 09.07.20 at 4:25 pm
Dissuaded friends from putting in an offer on a home. Their real estate agent, a “friend”, had them wound up that “prices were just skyrocketing and they had to buy before they were priced out of the market“. Yikes!
——————————————————————
Your friends owe you a nice dinner for helping them avoid financial ruin…

#13 Nonno Nicola on 09.07.20 at 4:50 pm

#3 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 09.07.20 at 4:04 pm
With all this going on
one can certainly say
Dogs are great
beer iz good
people are crazy
————————————————————–

I’ll drink some good vino to that!

#14 Steven Nicolle on 09.07.20 at 4:51 pm

There will be a second wave. No maybe about that. Going to be rough.

#15 Millennial 1%er on 09.07.20 at 4:52 pm

Thanks for the blog posts as usual Garth. Not seeing any evidence of people not being capable of servicing their debt in Ottawa.. yet.

As a first time homebuyer, I’ve been priced out of what I would be able to obtain a year ago this summer (singles). And I make good money. If this upward momentum continues I’ll be priced out of towns as well. How do I compete with greater fools who take out maximum leverage? By debt maxxing too? The debt is tempting because it’s basically free money. But going half a million dollars in debt and having only a home sandwich to my name? That’s kinda… nuts

I’ve been a remote tech worker for over a year, before the pandemic. Most likely, I’ll buy a modest home in a small town in Ontario. I’ll even have enough money leftover for a lifetime supply of monster ultra and a john deer lawn tractor (with a beer holder of course).

#16 Brian Ripley on 09.07.20 at 4:56 pm

If house pricing has peaked it is showing up in Montreal and Ottawa … again.

Here is my 6 biggest cities in Canada chart: http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

It remains interesting to note that the average of the summed prices of Vancouver + Calgary + Toronto condos is 23% higher than a median priced Montreal SFD.

Ex-Calgary it was 55% higher.

In FEB 2018 the metrics were 73% and 106% higher respectively!

IN THE LAST 10 YEARS SF Detached Prices are up:​
106% in Vancouver
24% in Calgary
131% in Toronto

WHILE Employment Earnings are up:
35% in British Columbia
20% in Alberta
31% in Ontario​​

Calgary appears to be a value proposition.

Vancouver appears to be on the cusp of a trend change and Toronto prices look like they have room to run some more.

The selling season is over; 4Q will be interesting.

#17 MF on 09.07.20 at 5:00 pm

Working from home is here to stay. 9/11 changed air travel forever. Covid will change work forever. People will return to work in the future, yes, but it will be a blend of working from home and going into the office. It won’t be as it was.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/office-workers-home-covid-19-1.5711334

As for house prices, they are just related to interest rates and nothing else. They will collapse when interest rates rise. Hopefully that will be soon, since the economic distortions are only getting worse and worse. Low interest rates are like holding your breath underwater. Eventually you have to come up for air.

US election: I think it will be Trump again. The well meaning peaceful protests look to have been hijacked by radicals. 24/7 programming of rioters on television in Portland is what many Americans are, unfortunately, being exposed to constantly. Biden is also uninspiring. There won’t be any civil war, just a repeat of the last four years with mostly hyperbole, and some legit criticism, leveled at Trump. It will pass as usual though. This isn’t 1860.

MF

#18 DON on 09.07.20 at 5:05 pm

“The Leap”

On the edge of a cliff, on a foggy day…in the middle of the pouring raaaainn. There is no turning back as the bear comes down the path.

A leap of faith into the abyss.

Hopefully there is a invisible walkway to the other side…you just have to find it in time. Did i mention the bear.

#19 BlogDog123 on 09.07.20 at 5:09 pm

re: #11 Limerick Larry

And for oil we shall dig,
While future generations get thrown under the wheel.

—-

You’re making the assumption that climate changer saviours like Trudeau & Liberal “plans” will most-certainly yield results that will save the planet.

We have examples like Ontariowe’s green energy act that promised green jobs and ‘save the planet’ rhetoric, but just transferred ratepayers’ higher bills to companies and individuals who gobbled up the lucrative feed-in-tariffs. Add more provincial fiddling and debt-shifting to hide the true problem of “we paid too much for wind/solar”. A disaster of epic proportions. Advised to Ontario by the guy advising Trudeau, Gerald “oops, sorry” Butts.

Trudeau will hobble the oil, gas and mining industries, kill jobs and their tax revenues for decades. Rather than “pay for his spending now” with revenue he does not have, his spending madness and piling on of national debt will mean “future generations get thrown under the wheel.”

#20 WTF on 09.07.20 at 5:15 pm

to those itching to buy
surely you must be high
to consider these prices
And think your realtor is the nicest
the end must surely be nigh

The balanced portfolio for sure
will keep your finance pure
Ignore the naysayer who gambles
their words are nothing but rambles
Truly, a 60/40 is the cure

Sorry, couldn’t help myself…….

#21 Andrewski on 09.07.20 at 5:18 pm

Re: #12 Uncle Al Sinclair. Great idea, thanks. My buddy is a proficient griller, so some thick cut steaks, Chicago rare, are in order!

#22 JoinEm on 09.07.20 at 5:33 pm

I think Trudeau will really ramp up the carbon taxes. He can package it into his new green deal. But, it will really just go to the general tax revenue pool. I’m due for a new vehicle — I think I’ll get a hybrid.

#23 Dolce Vita on 09.07.20 at 5:35 pm

“Trudeau/Chrystia spending orgy and political consequences – bet on it.”

Some quasi-spin on that from Perrin Beatty including CTV on Twitter as a response to a CTV-Nanos Poll about deficit, Liberals ability to rebuild economy.

CTV article called “Canadians concerned about deficit, split on feds’ ability to rebuild economy: Nanos survey”

About the deficit:

are concerned (47 per cent)
somewhat concerned (30 per cent)
=77%

The SPIN on Rebuilding the economy (CTV says a split):

either confident (11 per cent)
or somewhat confident (38 per cent) the government has such a plan,
with 47 per cent responding that they are either somewhat not confident (22 per cent) or not confident (25 per cent).

Basically, 11% are confident, 47% NOT confident AND 38% live on PLANET CLAIRE, pink air and all.

38% are in essence DIVINING, TRUSTING there is a plan, where there is none so far. NADA. NOT A WORD. NOT A PAGE. NOT EVEN A SOCK.

But they’re in the know, you know.

Maybe Cdns. are a gullible as you imply at times Garth. Yup.

———————–

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canadians-concerned-about-deficit-split-on-feds-ability-to-rebuild-economy-nanos-survey-1.5094909

#24 Long-Time Lurker on 09.07.20 at 5:40 pm

“Second wave – hope not.”

>See graph below.

CRITICAL POINT France becomes Europe’s coronavirus hotspot as it records highest EVER daily case figure
Henry Holloway
Sep 5 2020, 12:08 ETUpdated: Sep 6 2020, 3:09 ET

FRANCE has become Europe’s new coronavirus hotspot as it recorded its highest ever number of daily cases

The country’s count hit a new high with nearly 9,000 yesterday – almost double that of Europe’s second worst daily rate in Spain….

https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/VP-GRAPH-FRANCE-COVID-19-DAILY-CASES-5-SEP-2.jpg?w=620

https://www.the-sun.com/news/1426073/france-europe-covid-hotspot-icu-two-weeks/

#25 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 09.07.20 at 5:41 pm

You may have forgotten homelessness and drug addiction. We here in Victoria are afraid to go downtown. We don’t want to get stabbed or stuck with a used needle. Our Mayor has positioned all our homeless who are mostly from elsewhere into Beacon Hill Park, the Rubicon of Victoria. Tourists are now saying, “Don’t go to Victoria, it’s not safe. We are really in a depression and it’s going to get worse.

#26 Joe on 09.07.20 at 5:46 pm

Disinflation is necessary in order to let new generation to inherit the assets from the retiring one. Unfortunately, the society misunderstands the necessity and the government keeps fleecing the younger generation, using the proceeds to keep asset prices artificially high and thus unavailable to those who need them the most and can make the best use of them.

#27 Jake on 09.07.20 at 5:51 pm

“Mortgages are 1.5%. It doesn’t get any cheaper.”

If we crash and burn again would the FED/BoC go with negative rates? Hope not, but they have no bullets left right now.

Negative rates wold not mean lower mortgages. – Garth

#28 Jay Huhman on 09.07.20 at 6:04 pm

“America – closer to a civil war than at any time in memory.” Come on Garth, we both remember 1968.

#29 Pete from St. Cesaire on 09.07.20 at 6:05 pm

#27 Jake on 09.07.20 at 5:51 pm
“Mortgages are 1.5%. It doesn’t get any cheaper.”
If we crash and burn again would the FED/BoC go with negative rates? Hope not, but they have no bullets left right now.

Negative rates wold not mean lower mortgages. – Garth
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Just watch, the BoC will come up with a “We’ll match your down-payment” scheme to keep the bubble going.

#30 Victor V on 09.07.20 at 6:08 pm

“Inflation – a certainty after the world spent $20 trillion fighting a bug.”

I am anything but a gold bug, but won’t this be bullish for precious metals?

#31 Ronaldo on 09.07.20 at 6:17 pm

#11 Limerick Larry on 09.07.20 at 4:44 pm
#9 YouKnowWho – from PTO on 09.07.20 at 4:22 pm
On 09.06.20,
Limerick Larry, crowdedelevatorfartz and fishman

True poets go light
Haiku is how you battle
Or Greater Fool be

Man walks dog in park
Dog poops man scoops up warm treat
Who serves the master?

Ms. Pac Man gobbles
More debt solution to debt
Fill your emptiness

1st Wave, New Order
Depeche Mode, Smiths, Police
The Cure for next Wave

YouKnowWho is a Haiku King!
—————————————————————-

All hail the King! Bravo! This one is for the climate deniers…(I promise I am done with this one Garth, humour me please…:)

They claim climate change is not real,
Just Ottawa’s way of keeping the West under their heel,
So start up the rigs,
And for oil we shall dig,
While future generations get thrown under the wheel.
—————————————————————–
To hell with Corona,
To the burbs with Iona,
We’ll grow some potatoes,
And corn and tomatoes,
It’s all solar for now,
We may get a cow,
Our own butter we’ll make,
The potatoes we’ll bake,
And some beets we will grow,
To Toronto we’ll go,
To buy staples and stuff,
And that’s quite enough,
Goodbye to you all,
We look forward to fall,
This is the best of all blogs,
But it’s going to the dogs.
I think I’ll stop here,
It’s time for a beer.

Anonymous

#32 Dolce Vita on 09.07.20 at 6:18 pm

#24 Long-Time Lurker

America FINALLY wakes up that Europe has a dung load of new cases.

France, are you kidding me a hotspot (Silver Medal only)?

Try Spain – base chart by La Repubblica and I just type the new case numbers in…from this past Friday:

https://i.imgur.com/uLZWNY6.jpg

The green arrow “0” new cases country, that’s Kosovo, yeah Kosovo!

It’s been like this for weeks. Low deaths so far, BUT even that is starting to creep up.

As of today, France down to about 7000 new cases. Spain had 7341 on Saturday according to El Pais.

The UK zoomed to 3000 on Saturday, up 1000 in a day.

Of major population Europe countries only Germany and Italia (1100 today) holding the line or lowering new cases…the rest a mess.

E.g., use population ratios vs. Canada: The Netherlands 744 would be 1600 in Canada; Switzerland’s 405 would be 1800 in Canada; Ukraine’s 2769 would be 2500 in Canada

AND MIRACLE COUNTRY “Canada can learn from”, Mother Nature’s Natural Selection Love Child:

Sweden’s 256 would be 940 in Canada.

OTHER former American LOVE CHILDS “We can learn from”:

Norway’s 111 would be 767 in Canada, Austria’s 357 would be 1515 in Canada.

——————–

If nothing else good to read the Americani are waking up (availed themselves for a moment from throwing Molotov Peaceful Protest Cocktails) meanwhile back in Canada and its Cdn. MSM:

Hear no evil, speak no evil, see…

#33 Victor Maitland on 09.07.20 at 6:30 pm

Both Equifax and TransUnion have come out with detailed reports providing very specific stats on mortgage deferrals. That should put to bed any argument that deferrals are not reported to credit agencies. Every single deferral has been diligently reported from the start, and can be viewed on any credit check, whether through Equifax, TransUnion, or your FICO score (the one only lenders are allowed to see).

#34 Dolce Vita on 09.07.20 at 6:37 pm

BTW, thanks:

#24 Long-Time Lurker

for being on the ball and not on the bus.

——————————

Canada, keep your borders closed. Keep fining You’alls trying to spread their contagion to Canadian soil.

Italia as you know fully open since June 3rd, fully including Int’l travel. Well that has a cost and this chart in Italian basically say:

https://i.imgur.com/7Fm6zoh.jpg

About 20% of the cases in Italia are from foreigners visiting here. So our 1100 today new cases, about 200 of those are from foreign visitors.

——————————

La Regata Storica in Venezia on Sunday was wonderful, as usual and so was the Guggenheim. Lots of Italians from all over (met a couple from Naples that came up to see it) AND MANY French and German tourists that kept a VERY LOW PROFILE and observed all of our distancing, mask decrees etc., ’cause (esp. the French) knew we were WATCHING THEM (no worries about the Deutschers, as dutiful as ever).

And we were.

Nice to see them though I have to say and they were spending money. Trains full coming into Santa Lucia train station…a good thing.

A nice semblance for A DAY of what was before that DAMN VIRUS came to town.

#35 Dogman01 on 09.07.20 at 6:38 pm

For Turner Nation

“Sometimes your freedom is not taken away at gunpoint, but instead it is done one piece of paper at a time, one seemingly meaningless rule at a time, one small silencing at a time. Never allow the government – or anyone else – to tell you what you can or cannot believe or what you can and cannot say or what your conscience tells you to have to do or not do.”
~ Armando Valladares

#36 Nonplused on 09.07.20 at 6:43 pm

I think work from home will continue but not at its current level. Some form of hybrid will form where perhaps people work 2 days in the office and 3 at home in in shifts. Other jobs won’t lend themselves to that so there will be some people in the office 5 days a week. A few jobs have proven to not require a presence in the office at all. “Assigned space” was already on the way out in favor of a “hotelling” model and that will continue. I just don’t think there is any way corporations are not going to take away from this experience that they can operate with much less office space than they did previously. Every dollar saved means lower prices and higher profits. Turning back those profits makes about as much sense as pulling the robots out of the factories.

Certain jobs simply cannot be done from home. For example if you are a car salesman you have to be in person. But others can quite well. My wife has been working from home for 4 years and she has been in the office maybe once a month. Her job is national so the people she deals with are all across the country. Heck her supervisor isn’t even in the same city. When she is here my wife does go downtown to meet her but that is fairly infrequent.

Financial advisors will of course go back to the office because they need a space to meet with clients. Over the phone is nice but face to face time is expected by all those rich clients who expect personal service.

So WFH is here to stay but not at these levels. I think it is a good thing because parking is too damn expensive and the roads are too busy.

#37 The Woosh on 09.07.20 at 7:03 pm

#27 Jake on 09.07.20 at 5:51 pm
“Mortgages are 1.5%. It doesn’t get any cheaper.”

If we crash and burn again would the FED/BoC go with negative rates? Hope not, but they have no bullets left right now.

Negative rates wold not mean lower mortgages. – Garth

——————————————

In France, you can lock in at about 1.35% for 20 years. It’s under 1% for shorter terms (under 10 years). They’re more or less at negative rates. If France can get to that level, there’s always a chance our mortgage rates could still go lower if the BoC decides it needs to ease rates further. You never know what could happen until it does.

#38 James on 09.07.20 at 7:04 pm

20% seems conservative for sure.

#39 Drinking on 09.07.20 at 7:04 pm

#11 Limerick Larry

Do people like you even understand the costs involved from switching from fossil fuels to alternatives while another poster stated floating in you oil based kayak?

Ryan had a good article a while back regarding this issue; read it: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/08/page/9/

#40 Infrared on 09.07.20 at 7:09 pm

#25 CHERRY BLOSSOM
We just returned from west coast vacation.
Victoria felt save and nice, but we accidentally walked into Carrall and Hasting intersection in Vancouver…9pm..felt like zombie apocalypses movie…so scary.

#41 Grunt on 09.07.20 at 7:11 pm

I see a green commute-free future where many people’s home-office are owned/mortgaged and surveillanced by the workplace.

#42 Captain Uppa on 09.07.20 at 7:14 pm

Only if they think it’s different this time. (It isn’t.)

————————————-

And when is it ever different? Eventually change occurs, sometimes suddenly … and sometimes not.

I think you are wrong on WFH. At the very least, it will be a part-time mainstay.

#43 YouKnowWho - from PTO on 09.07.20 at 7:29 pm

Garth,

Can inflation be driven with taxation, under some green guise (for example) to increase consumer energy costs and through tariffs under some retaliatory US (or China) did it to us, so we’re doing it back” kind of a thing?

You know…drive cost increases via bullshirt?

#44 Haiku Haiku on 09.07.20 at 7:40 pm

@#9 YouKnowWho – from PTO on 09.07.20 at 4:22 pm

Last stanza has only 6 syllables in the 2nd line. Haiku fail. :)

#45 Limerick Larry on 09.07.20 at 7:45 pm

#31 Ronaldo on 09.07.20 at 6:17 pm

—————————————————————–
To hell with Corona,
To the burbs with Iona,
We’ll grow some potatoes,
And corn and tomatoes,
It’s all solar for now,
We may get a cow,
Our own butter we’ll make,
The potatoes we’ll bake,
And some beets we will grow,
To Toronto we’ll go,
To buy staples and stuff,
And that’s quite enough,
Goodbye to you all,
We look forward to fall,
This is the best of all blogs,
But it’s going to the dogs.
I think I’ll stop here,
It’s time for a beer.
—————————————————————

I love it! Well done mon ami! I’ve unleashed some creativity among the blog dogs…

#46 -=withwings=- on 09.07.20 at 7:49 pm

Working from home is here to stay.

maybe…

9/11 changed air travel forever.

For a year or so, then it was not only back to usual, but a huge boom in cheap travel spurned massive growth!

People fleeing Ottawa for 1hr drives they can do once a week if needed…


Your friends owe you a nice dinner for helping them avoid financial ruin…

Lol, we heard a lot of that in GTA ten years ago. Anyone ‘crazy’ who bought back then is set for life. Prices aren’t going to crash as long as CMHC is backing the mortgages. Up, and only Up we go.

#47 Limerick Larry on 09.07.20 at 7:50 pm

#39 Drinking on 09.07.20 at 7:04 pm
#11 Limerick Larry

Do people like you even understand the costs involved from switching from fossil fuels to alternatives while another poster stated floating in you oil based kayak?

Ryan had a good article a while back regarding this issue; read it: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/08/page/9/
—————————————————————-

I read Ryan’s blog on the subject. I understand the difficulty in transition but I also understand that the deniers are delusional. If 95% of climate scientists are saying it’s the real deal, the deniers are imperiling organized human life on the planet…

#48 Asterix1 on 09.07.20 at 7:50 pm

Prices are not skyrocketing. The average is up. Yes. It means nothing. Why? Less condos sold, more expensive homes sold, the sales mix changed, average up.

On the ground, prices are not going up like RE mob wants you to believe.

Average should never be used when trying to understand what is happening in a market. It’s the most basic and flawed measuring stick.

#49 baloney Sandwitch on 09.07.20 at 7:52 pm

OK, got is about houses. What about stocks? Curl up and hunker down? Diversified, balanced portfolio and all that funda?

#50 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.07.20 at 7:52 pm

#21 Andrewski on 09.07.20 at 5:18 pm
Re: #12 Uncle Al Sinclair. Great idea, thanks. My buddy is a proficient griller, so some thick cut steaks, Chicago rare, are in order!
—————————————————————–

You are welcome sir! That sounds like one delicious meal. Enjoy!

#51 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.07.20 at 7:59 pm

#46 -=withwings=- on 09.07.20 at 7:49 pm

Your friends owe you a nice dinner for helping them avoid financial ruin…

Lol, we heard a lot of that in GTA ten years ago. Anyone ‘crazy’ who bought back then is set for life. Prices aren’t going to crash as long as CMHC is backing the mortgages. Up, and only Up we go.
—————————————————————-

We are not talking the same starting point. Prices have doubled in the past 10 years in Toronto. We are reaching a breaking point. I can’t see prices doubling in the next ten years. If that happens, we Torontonians won’t know what do with our money. I am a home owner, mortgage free by the way…

#52 Cici on 09.07.20 at 8:00 pm

#9 YouKnowWho – from PTO

Hey, you just listed all my favourite bands from the senior high school years (New Order, Smiths, Police, Depeche Mode, The Cure).

Must admit, have been reliving the 80s and 90s through YouTube videos since the pandemic started. Just feels right!

#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.07.20 at 8:03 pm

According to a latest Angus Reid poll, only 23% of adult Canadians worry about the deficit.
The majority worries more about Covid 19.
So, the liberal government’s priorities are in line with those of the majority of the voters.
That’s tells me that democracy is fine and working in our beautiful country.
https://theprovince.com/opinion/kurl-lessons-for-erin-otoole-canadians-care-about-the-deficit-but-they-care-about-covid-impact-more/wcm/570fcbde-e0fb-4590-9235-7952e08cd4c3/

#54 DON on 09.07.20 at 8:10 pm

42 Captain Uppa on 09.07.20 at 7:14 pm
Only if they think it’s different this time. (It isn’t.)

————————————-

And when is it ever different? Eventually change occurs, sometimes suddenly … and sometimes not.

***************
With respect to human nature…it is never different.

#55 YouKnowWho - from PTO on 09.07.20 at 8:16 pm

#44 Haiku Haiku on 09.07.20 at 7:40 pm
@#9 YouKnowWho – from PTO on 09.07.20 at 4:22 pm

Last stanza has only 6 syllables in the 2nd line. Haiku fail. :)

———

Depeche Mode, Smiths, Police?

dé-pê-che…yes?

3, 1, 1, 2.

#56 MF on 09.07.20 at 8:17 pm

46 -=withwings=- on 09.07.20

Air travel is more than just cost. There is the whole security element.

Do you think security stayed the same after 9/11?

MF

#57 MF on 09.07.20 at 8:20 pm

#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.07.20 at

Isn’t it the opposite? This poll shows only 10% of Canadians are not worried:

(Credit to Dolce Vita for posting this above)

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/canadians-concerned-about-deficit-split-on-feds-ability-to-rebuild-economy-nanos-survey-1.5094909

MF

#58 YouNowWho - from PTO on 09.07.20 at 8:31 pm

#52 Cici

1st Wave, New Order
Depeche Mode, Smiths, Police
The Cure for next Wave

Gotta tell you, I’m quite fond of this haiku I put together. It’s got the first wave, the ever feared second wave, the new order we’re living, the fast fashion we’re wearing in quarantine, keeping up with the Joneses…or Smiths with all this piled up debt, it’s got the all important Police who headline news daily, and The Cure that everyone seeks.

Who would have thunk it that the 80s would be so on the money with 2020!

Saw Police, Depeche Mode a few times, and I did see The Cure live at Molson (at the time) Ampitheatre, which through combination of Molson and The Cure made all who attended immune to Corona!

But seriously, how valuable are those live concert memories – in the mosh pit at 100 level? That’s not happening again! …for a long time.

#59 jal on 09.07.20 at 8:53 pm

The future is bringing a lot of jubilee:
that means not pay off your loans,
that means bankruptcies,
that means new people living under the bridge.

#60 45north on 09.07.20 at 8:57 pm

The Leap

the leap from no consequences to consequences

here’s what I wrote last week

so we’ve been shutdown for six months, as far as I can see there have been no consequences. My wife and I have not gone hungry. None of our family has suffered. I don’t know of anybody who has. Of course, this has been deliberate government policy and rightly so. However, there are going to be consequences, it’s just we don’t know what they will be.

today’s blog gives us a clue

Of the 4.7 million with a home loan, therefore, 25% stopped making payments. This is not only massive, it’s more than double the rate in the US – where folks currently carry far less debt.

consequence is that 25% have seriously impaired credit which means they won’t be looking for a new house. And they won’t be spending as much.

According to the Equifax analysis 600,000 people were still not making payments last month. These borrowers had mortgages 25% larger than the average, lower credit scores and greater leverage.

consequence is that they will be selling without buying (Ross Kay says in a real estate market, every seller is also a buyer – not anymore). And house prices will decline.

So the consequences are deflationary – less money to spend, less money being spent.

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.20 at 9:20 pm

@#53 Ponzie Plot
“According to a latest Angus Reid poll, only 23% of adult Canadians worry about the deficit.
The majority worries more about Covid 19.
So, the liberal government’s priorities are in line with those of the majority of the voters.”

+++++

Which only proves that 77% of Canadians polled are financial illiterates and the Liberal cash machine is cranked up to buy their vote………

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.07.20 at 9:28 pm

#57 MF on 09.07.20 at 8:20 pm
#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.07.20 at

Isn’t it the opposite? This poll shows only 10% of Canadians are not worried:

(Credit to Dolce Vita for posting this above)

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/canadians-concerned-about-deficit-split-on-feds-ability-to-rebuild-economy-nanos-survey-1.5094909

MF
————
Did you read the article?
Mine is an Angus Reid poll.
Gold standard.

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.20 at 9:34 pm

Sept 7 today.

BC Teachers will g back to work Tuesday Sept 8 to “prepare” for school opening Thursday Sept 10th.

They are still complaining about the Covid guidelines in schools .

5 months govt officials have had to figure this out….. 5 months…….to …..work…..out…a….plan….and still we have bickering, sniping, and zero co-operation.

I fully expect the BC Teachers Federation to push their years long demands of “Smaller Class Sizes ( more teachers needed naturally) and shamelessly use the pandemic to try and ram it through.

Newsflash teachers.
There’s no money in the Govt budgets…….
But I still expect a province wide walk out within 2 weeks of school starting ( linking the “walkout day” with a ‘Professional Development Day” sometime in late Sept., because after 5 months, God only knows they need MORE days off)

Here’s an idea.
Privatize all schools.
Use on line teaching. ( Ratio one teacher : 50 students)
Suspend any teachers (with no govt benefits)that refuse to work.

#64 sheesh on 09.07.20 at 9:35 pm

#55 YouKnowWho – from PTO on 09.07.20 at 8:16 pm
#44 Haiku Haiku on 09.07.20 at 7:40 pm
@#9 YouKnowWho – from PTO on 09.07.20 at 4:22 pm

Last stanza has only 6 syllables in the 2nd line. Haiku fail. :)

———

Depeche Mode, Smiths, Police?

dé-pê-che…yes?

Sorry, no. De-peche. 2.

#65 MF on 09.07.20 at 9:46 pm

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.07.20 at 9:28 pm

Yup I read it.

It said the obvious. People are more focused on the day to day survival than the deficit right now. Unemployed people aren’t going to worry about deficits when they are worried about eating. However, the article also said that a large number of people are worried, despite all that. That will change the economy reopens further rand more people are back to work.

Taking other evidence into account, like the article Dolce posted, it’s clear this is an issue worrying many Canadians.

MF

#66 What if? on 09.07.20 at 9:48 pm

Not taking into consideration property taxes, insurance and maintenance. A 25 yr amortization on a mortgage.

What amount of lending does a monthly payment of $3400 support at 2% ($800,000) and at 13.5% ($290,000).

What if?

#67 Mb on 09.07.20 at 9:51 pm

Sure Cherry Blossom…please go put your aluminum hat back on.

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.20 at 9:53 pm

canary in the Coal Mine?

RIP Vancouver Aquarium 1956 – 2020

https://globalnews.ca/news/7307821/vancouver-aquarium-closing/

The first of many institutions to close this Fall and Winter….. reducing govt tax collection….reducing govt money for other institutions……like schools, hospitals, police, etc etc etc…..

Pay your debts and save your money people….it could get very fugly.

#69 yvr_lurker on 09.07.20 at 9:56 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz

Here’s an idea.
Privatize all schools.
Use on line teaching. ( Ratio one teacher : 50 students)
Suspend any teachers (with no govt benefits)that refuse to work.

——————————

Then, over the next five year, increase the number of guards in the prison systems and the number of public health care support people (social workers, street workers) dealing with addictions. Continue importing highly skilled tech workers from overseas to fill the void. Good plan that is. I recommend sticking to topics you know something about.

#70 TurnerNation on 09.07.20 at 9:57 pm

From an Ontario twitter account I trust. They said they had a private message chat with an un-named Canadian news reporter. Who told them “This is a year long exercise. Things will slowly get back to normal”.

Hmm. But why. To roll out the global new green deal/Marxism is my guess. Must run, I’ve got to go and help smash the cis-gendered capitalist patriarchy! TTYL

Ps. ~5 years ago I heard someone who dealt with this stuff (predictive programming, the new global order coming etc) break it down that they’d make things so bad in the world that we’d then happily and eventually return to our jobs and lives, albeit mush more heavily taxed and controlled/fewer freedoms. Where they correct? What say you my fellow Lumpenproletariats?

#71 Shawn on 09.07.20 at 10:02 pm

Canada is the new Europe. Get ready for a 15% HST – minimum.

#72 Shawn on 09.07.20 at 10:03 pm

$CAD to 60 cents over the next 3 years?

#73 workaholic on 09.07.20 at 10:04 pm

#63 Did you ever TEACH?

#74 WhackoNation on 09.07.20 at 10:07 pm

#70 TurnerNation on 09.07.20 at 9:57 pm

From an Ontario twitter account I trust. They said they had a private message chat with an un-named Canadian news reporter. Who told them “This is a year long exercise. Things will slowly get back to normal”.

Hmm. But why. To roll out the global new green deal/Marxism is my guess. Must run, I’ve got to go and help smash the cis-gendered capitalist patriarchy! TTYL

Ps. ~5 years ago I heard someone who dealt with this stuff (predictive programming, the new global order coming etc) break it down that they’d make things so bad in the world that we’d then happily and eventually return to our jobs and lives, albeit mush more heavily taxed and controlled/fewer freedoms. Where they correct? What say you my fellow Lumpenproletariats?
……

Great insider info …… you’re on top of things tiger….Is that the same dude who said they would take over by only allowing us to watch soccer….?? Thank the heavens you’re on top on this….

#75 Limerick Larry on 09.07.20 at 10:13 pm

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.20 at 9:20 pm

Which only proves that 77% of Canadians polled are financial illiterates and the Liberal cash machine is cranked up to buy their vote………
—————————————————————

Twas once a man named Fartz,
Who felt Canadians were lacking in smarts,
In anger he did post,
With permission of the host,
That all this debt was ripping Canada apart.

#76 Dutchy on 09.07.20 at 10:20 pm

So over 99% of homeowners are still hanging in there or even doing very well (The clear title ones)

At today’s (ridiculous) prices that is amazing.

And our banks continue to pay around 4% dividends.
Go figure….

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.20 at 10:21 pm

@ #69 yvr Lurker
“I recommend sticking to topics you know something about.”

+++

Dont you have some classes to prepare for?
5 months is never enough.

#78 YouKnowWho - from PTO on 09.07.20 at 10:26 pm

#64 sheesh

——–

So I have a free syllable? I can throw “Clash” into this one, bonus!

REVISION

1st Wave, New Order
Depeche Mode, Smiths, Police, Clash
The Cure for Next Wave

#79 Lorne on 09.07.20 at 11:06 pm

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.20 at 9:34 pm
Sept 7 today.

BC Teachers will g back to work Tuesday Sept 8 to “prepare” for school opening Thursday Sept 10th.

They are still complaining about the Covid guidelines in schools .

5 months govt officials have had to figure this out….. 5 months…….to …..work…..out…a….plan….and still we have bickering, sniping, and zero co-operation.

I fully expect the BC Teachers Federation to push their years long demands of “Smaller Class Sizes ( more teachers needed naturally) and shamelessly use the pandemic to try and ram it through.

Newsflash teachers.
There’s no money in the Govt budgets…….
But I still expect a province wide walk out within 2 weeks of school starting ( linking the “walkout day” with a ‘Professional Development Day” sometime in late Sept., because after 5 months, God only knows they need MORE days off)

Here’s an idea.
Privatize all schools.
Use on line teaching. ( Ratio one teacher : 50 students)
Suspend any teachers (with no govt benefits)that refuse to work.
………..

Newsflash crowdedelevatorfartz: we are in a pandemic! Nobody (even you) has all the answers. What we thought we knew 5 months ago has changed. A “second wave” …nobody really knows. Do schools or teachers know for sure, how things will evolve…certainly not. Should we all still remain cautious….certainly will not hurt. You may even wish to begin to wear a mask as, I assume, you do not believe the epidemiologists either. Make a contribution to avoiding having this pandemic become even worse.
Teacher’s walk out in a couple of weeks…unlikely. Changes being made in the system as we move along and see how things are going…..likely.

#80 Ronaldo on 09.07.20 at 11:10 pm

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.20 at 9:34 pm

I will second that.

#81 GRG on 09.07.20 at 11:39 pm

#11 Limerick Larry

All hail the King! Bravo! This one is for the climate deniers…(I promise I am done with this one Garth, humour me please…:)

They claim climate change is not real,
Just Ottawa’s way of keeping the West under their heel,
So start up the rigs,
And for oil we shall dig,
While future generations get thrown under the wheel.
******************************************

Everybody knows if the oil was in Quebec there would have been no NEP in 1980, and we wouldn’t be having the current debate either. Instead Ottawa would be handing out money to SNC Lavalin to build the pipelines.

I just hope T2 has to stick around as long as T1 did. It would be appropriate for him to have to clean up the economic train wreck.

#82 mike from mtl on 09.07.20 at 11:42 pm

Please, there is no ‘second wave’, this is not 1918 and not the same as H1N1. If anything the first round was kept at bay using basic to drastic measures – so propagation delays. Either now or later the populace will be exposed to it. Difference is today we have global government(s) too invested to stop or admit overreaction.

‘Case’ counts and all that are basically meaningless without negative outcomes – like serious hospitalisations and of course deaths, obviously we would like to avoid that. Of that, around the earth by all counts have been tapering off – which is sort of suspicious given the southern hemisphere is in wintertime.

Even here in ‘hard hit’ QC – which I wish would stop being parroted, we do twice the daily tests from a few months ago (10k vs 20k), and have nowhere near the same grim results – to boot no lockdowns!

#83 Attrition on 09.07.20 at 11:50 pm

Oh boy…

First of all, ya, second wave. It’s called winter cold and flu season. Every year…after year…after year. Yawn.

Sadly, so many people are drifting around in a cloud of fear and high anxiety. It’s madness, actual madness. It can be clinically diagnosed, this fear of a virus that is mostly harmless to the vast majority of those it sickens.

We are such a cowardly, fearful lot, we canucks. Russian and Japanese schoolchildren have more stoicism and bravery in their baby toes that we have in our nation. Pains me to say it, but baby lambs have more balls than we canucks.

Any idea how many viruses you can carry and spread symptomatically pretty much all your life? Hundreds.

Before now, before this virus event, asymptomatic people were simply called healthy. Think about that for a few seconds, at least.

As for rates etc., well Garth .5% would be a long way from 1.5% wouldn’t you agree? Rates can go lower and might, so there’s plenty of room to move. Shave 1% of rates in a few months and see what happens to house prices. You know the answer.

I’m not sure why all we’ve been hearing for a long long time is “rates just can’t go any lower”. They still have a long way to go my friend.

As for the US election, it’s naive to think that any amount of protests could ever derail or significantly threaten the political union of the United States.

Folks may remember the Vietnam War, or have seen some documentaries, just maybe? Thousands of dead every month, massive civil unrest and protests in almost every US city for years; an election, a hated president etc.

Again, yawn.

To suggest civil war over policing shooting or otherwise ending men resisting arrest? Even if the force used was excessive in every instance, even if the perps/victims share the same racial profile, you have to be joking.

The US feds could easily put down every protest they wanted to at any time. The local police could. The national guard, well, let’s not go there but they sure could. The militias could.

If there was more courage in the world, people would look beyond the surface reasons for the protests and see who and what is really behind them.

Protests take a lot of coordination and a lot of planning to be effective. Very smart agitators, with very clear political allegiances. The French have words for those agents who provoke…nothing new here folks.

The truth is that the Trump admin is being extremely gentle and patient. I’m not sure why more people don’t realize this. The feds could roll in and quickly quell any amount of protest. But they’re not. It may serve Trump, it may serve the dems, but that’s not the point: it is theatre, not danger, not a threat.

As for the election, it’s irresponsible to suggest that either side wouldn’t cede victory. It’s been floated by both sides I know, but it’s unrealistic and impossible.

There might be a delay if it’s a close election, but that what’s the courts are for. Wouldn’t be the first time; hardly the end of the union.

Now as for Greater Canuckistan, well, we have no union, no shared vision or cause, no overarching national identity other than deby slavery. We are post national whether we want it or not.

In the scheme of things, this leaves us with exactly what we deserve: an inconsequential nation of inconsequential people.

And yet we sneer collectively at our southern neighbours who know what it means to fight for their beliefs, for their freedoms, their democracy…

#84 GRG on 09.07.20 at 11:56 pm

#47 Limerick Larry

I read Ryan’s blog on the subject. I understand the difficulty in transition but I also understand that the deniers are delusional. If 95% of climate scientists are saying it’s the real deal, the deniers are imperiling organized human life on the planet…
*******************************************

The biggest deniers are those of you who continue to use it. For your air/road/sea transportation, for your food supply, for your light and your heat, for your clothing, for mining and processing the metals in your EVs, for your cheap trinkets from China, and for all the one-time disposable plastic to protect you from the perils of unseen little bugs.

When you stop using it the oil industry will stop producing it.

Simple. Really.
Get started.

#85 Nonplused on 09.08.20 at 12:47 am

#43 YouKnowWho – from PTO on 09.07.20 at 7:29 pm
Garth,

Can inflation be driven with taxation, under some green guise (for example) to increase consumer energy costs and through tariffs under some retaliatory US (or China) did it to us, so we’re doing it back” kind of a thing?

You know…drive cost increases via bullshirt?

—————————-

I’m not sure taxation can drive inflation all that much, because when you take money away from people through taxation they have less to spend in other areas. It could drive inflation in the areas where the government spends the money, but it would be offset in areas where they took the money.

The real driver of inflation is when the printing press runs faster than the economy, so I would worry more about all the government borrowing particularly from their own central banks, which I think is more inflationary than from the open markets.

Here is a blast from the past by Milton Friedman that explains it if you have a 14 minute attention span:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ4TTNeSUdQ

Synopsis:

– Anything can be used as money. Weird things have.
– The US experienced inflation during the California gold rush because gold was being dug up too fast and it was also money at the time.
– In Virginia they used tobacco as money and that led to runaway inflation as farmers turned their fields to that product. Eventually farmers started burning each-others crops.
– During the civil war both sides experience high inflation but when the North captured the confederate printing presses, inflation stopped in the south for two weeks until the confederates could set up new presses.
– In the 70’s the US experienced near crippling inflation, until Volker stopped it with high rates and a slowing of the presses.
– Inflation increases taxes, not the other way around, through “bracket creep”.
– Unions seldom cause inflation because their demands seldom keep up with inflation and bracket creep. (You could probably extend that to minimum wages as well.)

Looking at what was considered “crippling inflation” in the 70’s, I think we are in for tough times ahead, as I think we are headed well north of 2% possibly to the 4-5% range. After a few years of that the CB’s will want to tame it back down but if wages don’t keep up the higher interest rates required to get it back down to 2% will seem punishing to the over indebted.

So here is what 2025 might look like:
– Your cost of living is 20% higher.
– Interest rates are 2-3% higher.
– If you got a raise, more of you income was in your marginal tax bracket.
– Long and short your standard of living is going down.

#86 jane24 on 09.08.20 at 12:56 am

I usually agree with Garth that recent events and procedures do not dictate permanent trends but on WFH, he is wrong. Pandora’s box has been opened. WFH was slowly happening anyway due to the costs of prime office space but Covid 19 has super charged the evolving trend. Cities will evolve into something other than the beating heart of the nation. If London England, the second financial centre of the world after NYC is happy working from home then small Canadian cities will be too.

I know a LOT of folk in my life and no-one has gone back to the city full-time. Their new deals are either WFH or hybrids where they go in a few days per week or month. Employees are happy not to be on the tube every day with strangers breathing on them. Employers are happy not to have to renew expensive city office leases. Cities are greener. Unless you own a Star Bucks franchise or city office space, what’s not to like.

#87 Abolitionist on 09.08.20 at 12:58 am

DELETED

#88 Nonplused on 09.08.20 at 1:19 am

#46 -=withwings=- on 09.07.20 at 7:49 pm
Working from home is here to stay.

maybe…

9/11 changed air travel forever.

For a year or so, then it was not only back to usual, but a huge boom in cheap travel spurned massive growth!

——————————

I don’t think it went “back to usual”. We got the TSA, huge lineups, full body scanners, pat downs, and all kinds of other restrictions. All that stuff costs money so travel costs were higher than they would have been otherwise.

I tried to bring a novelty lighter I had bought in New York home and was told I would have to FedEx it. Don’t try and fly with novelty lighters. It went in the trash.

Also one day my boss and I were flying home with 2 of our female coworkers. Strangely they put both the females in the body scanners but not us. Supposedly it was random.

Anyway I don’t ever remember having to strip to my skivvies before 9-11. Is it better now? I don’t know. Maybe the security is worth it and it took 9-11 to make that clear. But if so, what does that imply for WFH?

Also I think the change to keeping the cockpit door locked during flight made us a lot safer than body scanners looking for box knives. And now they have a new problem. When security is really backed up, the lineup itself is a better target than a single airplane.

#89 WAKEUP on 09.08.20 at 1:21 am

I think that a second round of Covid will eventually appear in Canada and it will continue to fuel a suburbia exodus.
There’s still loads of money out there in baby boomer RE.

#90 Nonplused on 09.08.20 at 1:39 am

#47 Limerick Larry on 09.07.20 at 7:50 pm

I read Ryan’s blog on the subject. I understand the difficulty in transition but I also understand that the deniers are delusional. If 95% of climate scientists are saying it’s the real deal, the deniers are imperiling organized human life on the planet…

——————————-

The “95% of climate scientists” thing is a hoax. First, science is not done by consensus. When Louis Pasteur first proposed that doctors wash their hands between patients he was ridiculed by his contemporaries. He turned out to be right. The list is long. The consensus is usually wrong.

Anyway the hoax is not that 95% of climate scientist believe in climate change, they do, although they don’t all agree it’s such a big deal or that CO2 is the main driver. The hoax is that we have to make massive changes to society or we are all going to die. “12 years left!” Sorry, the fossil fuel age will end due to the resources being exhausted before the planet turns into a fireball. That is the real issue because other than maybe small nuclear we don’t have an alternative besides die-off.

I am not much of a Micheal Moore fan politically but some of his documentaries are worth watching. This one is. He is only presenting it but he wouldn’t do so unless he thought it was up to snuff:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE

#91 Elon Fanboy on 09.08.20 at 1:57 am

#52 Cici….” Must admit, have been reliving the 80s and 90s through YouTube videos since the pandemic started. Just feels right!”

So done with this year. Wish I could go live back in the 80’s, best decade ever. Something about that decade that will never be recreated.

This video popped up in my Youtube feed recently…I’ve watched it a million times, sometimes with a tear in my eye.

Amazingly well done.

https://youtu.be/Z0eflYLkI4A

#92 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.08.20 at 2:00 am

#65 MF on 09.07.20 at 9:46 pm
#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.07.20 at 9:28 pm

Yup I read it.

It said the obvious. People are more focused on the day to day survival than the deficit right now. Unemployed people aren’t going to worry about deficits when they are worried about eating. However, the article also said that a large number of people are worried, despite all that. That will change the economy reopens further rand more people are back to work.

Taking other evidence into account, like the article Dolce posted, it’s clear this is an issue worrying many Canadians.

MF
———————–
All right. So you see what the problem is.
So, what should Trudeau do?

#93 Jackson Faly on 09.08.20 at 3:42 am

DELETED

#94 Mio on 09.08.20 at 3:49 am

” … Mortgages are 1.5%. It doesn’t get any cheaper… ”

Well, still a long way to zero. And with the death of aversion to debt and lack of personal financial literacy, who knows where prices will go. Crazy days.

#95 Olivier on 09.08.20 at 4:26 am

My brother is presently buying a house in France (w are french, he is closing in December). Bank interest rate is 0.60% on a 15 years fixed mortgage. Only thing holding him from taking a longer amortization period is that insurance is mandated by banks no matter of the downpayment percentage on the transaction.

#96 Howard on 09.08.20 at 5:36 am

Third, that exodus to the suburbs will probably end up being a career-killer for many. In any case, it wildly inflated non-urban prices, brought urban rents and condo values down and was the answer to boonie-dwellers’ prayers.

——————————-

What is your definition of “suburb” here?

Someone who moved from Yonge & Bloor to Richmond Hill has killed his career? This sounds like downtown condo realtor propaganda, to be honest.

#97 Howard on 09.08.20 at 5:52 am

#42 Captain Uppa on 09.07.20 at 7:14 pm
Only if they think it’s different this time. (It isn’t.)

————————————-

And when is it ever different? Eventually change occurs, sometimes suddenly … and sometimes not.

I think you are wrong on WFH. At the very least, it will be a part-time mainstay.

—————————————

Garth seems to have taken an all-or-nothing view on WFH, which I don’t really understand. Not many people will WFH every day, permanently, but the shift to 1-2 days in office, 3-4 days at home, is well underway. That’s the arrangement I currently have, and I work for a massive, old, stodgy multinational that’s quite resistant to change. Smaller, more nimble companies will be even more likely to shift. This opens up vastly more housing options since areas too far to commute 5 days a week become feasible if the commute is only 1-2 days.

#98 Kevin on 09.08.20 at 6:25 am

Just nuts. People are not thinking about anything other than C19. If you try to tell an average person anything about the economy, they just say I can’t even think about that right now. Just keep the restrictions in place and wear your mask even while having a bowel movement.

#99 JustinS on 09.08.20 at 7:11 am

Fully agree with Garth re: WFH and disagree with most of you on the topic. Recency bias in full effect.

FYI: many offices in Toronto currently have to adhere to maximum group sizes allowed by public health, and as a result can not yet open to any large number of employees. This will all change. Let’s see how things look in a year or two.

#100 Dale Silverhawk on 09.08.20 at 7:34 am

Freedie Mac, Fannie Mae is currently delaying a 0.50% new refi fee on mortgages more than $125,000 as lenders will be directly charged for this.

The 30 year mortgage jumped from 2.92% to 3.14% until backing down as the new refinance mortgage fee was delayed from September-1-2020 to December-1-2020. You guess it right, it is because of the corona virus.

As lenders will pass this on sooner and it looks like at 22 basis points per year that will cost alot over 30 year mortgages. This is about $100 a month so based on a $800,000 mortgage or $36,000 total extra new refinance fee over the life of the 30 year mortgage. See how they do it debt junkies.

I would not be surprised if we see much higher CMHC mortgage insurance rates going up and other fees going up and corona virus be blamed for it.

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.08.20 at 8:08 am

@#91 Ponzie Prattle

“All right. So you see what the problem is.
So, what should Trudeau do?”

+++

Resign obviously.

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.08.20 at 8:14 am

@#73 workerbee
“#63 Did you ever TEACH?”
+++

Every day.
And without the benefit of a teachers aid.
Now back to your preparation for the school “year”..
Apparently 5 months is not quite enough.
When is the next “professional development” day?
Sept 20? Sept 30?
Its usually a Friday or a Monday to make that extra long weekend even sweeter…..

#103 Do we have all the facts on 09.08.20 at 8:22 am

As of September 7, 2020 a total of 5,842,000 Canadians have been tested for the Covid 19 virus. This represents an increase of 2,000,000 tests since July 2020 when the infection rate was reported at 2.6 % of the population tested.

As of September 7, 2020 a total of 132,142 Canadians, or 2.2%, tested positive for presence of the Covid 19 virus.

What our governments and our media are refusing to report is that the infection rate for the 2,000,000 Canadians tested since July 2020 was only 1.6%. Based on this clear trend the testing of 100% of the Canadian population would result in an infection rate well below 2.0% and mortality rate well below 1/10 of 1.0%.

If the 7,200 deaths associated with a long term care facility are excluded the mortality rate from Covid 19 in Canada through September 7, 2020 would be less than 3/100 of 1.0% of those tested.

The Covid 19 curve has not only been flattened it has been crushed and the fear that a return to a life without masks and social distancing will result in a substantial increase in mortality rates seems overly pessimistic.

The rate of infection from a Covid 19 may increase but the world did not spend $20 trillion to avoid people getting sick for a few days. Even the CDC finally had to admit that the risk of death from Covid 19 for individuals with healthy immune systems was extremely low.

Other than a zero infection rate, a zero mortality rate or a magic vaccine what is necessary for a return to normal life. We seem to be basing current policies on a series of hypothetical scenarios and ignoring actual facts.

Time for a more positive approach to our future!

#104 Neo on 09.08.20 at 8:32 am

Hi Garth,

“Interest rates can hardly fall further. Mortgages are 1.5%.”

The interesting thing here is you can only get that rate if you put 5% to 19% down. If you put 20% or more down the rate jumps to 2.4-2.5%.

That sounds counterintuitive until you consider the banks isn’t taking any risk below 20%. The taxpayer is so the banks don’t care. Herein, lies the problem with this ponzi scheme.

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.08.20 at 8:33 am

@#84 jane24

“If London England, the second financial centre of the world after NYC…”

++++

Not for much longer now that BREXIT is winding its way through the political and finacial morass that is the EU.
And China has its way with the former colonies (HK comes to mind) under their jackboot.
No , sadly , London is on the wane.

But you must also be commended.
You didnt brag about the multiple houses or how fabulously rich you are.
Have you considered buying in Zermatt instead of Brittany?
Just a quick bicycle ride across the border from Italy and you would be closer to your hoard.

#106 Mark the Carney, Carney on 09.08.20 at 8:37 am

#84 Nonplused on 09.08.20 at 12:47 am

The real driver of inflation is when the printing press runs faster than the economy, so I would worry more about all the government borrowing particularly from their own central banks, which I think is more inflationary than from the open markets.
—————————————————————

Please explain why the BOJ’s massive money printing in the past 30 years has not caused inflation but has a country battling deflation…

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.08.20 at 8:40 am

@ jane24

A bit more light reading to review London’s waning status as the financial centre of your universe.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-frost/brexit-poker-begins-uk-ramps-up-no-deal-preparations-idUSKBN25Y235

#108 YouKnowWho - from the toilet on 09.08.20 at 8:50 am

Let’s go back to 1st grade with some poetry.

Roses are Red
Violets are Blue
Let us die eyeballs deep in debt
Cool with you?

Joey and Samantha
Sitting in a tree
Keeping
Inflation
Soaring
Splendidly
In debt
Note
Ginormously

#109 Big Raul on 09.08.20 at 8:56 am

Buffet goes back to basics. Commodities and things that go “ouch” when they fall on your Foot.

Buffett Gives Commodities A Bullish Blessing

I miss the VSE. Strippers, Pizza…. The Marble Arch….and millions of dollars. When commodities fly, the money makes tech look like kiddies in diapers. Get ready to get greasy.

#110 Tater on 09.08.20 at 9:03 am

#17 MF on 09.07.20 at 5:00 pm
Low interest rates are like holding your breath underwater. Eventually you have to come up for air.
———————————————————–

Unless you’re Japan, I guess.

#111 Dharma Bum on 09.08.20 at 9:07 am

Why should there be a second wave?

Haven’t you heard? A cloth on your kisser and standing 6 feet away from the “other” is the solution to the problem.

Stand on your mark, and do not move until the newly empowered security guard motions you to do so.

Add a little spritz of “sanitizing” gel on your hands, and you’re good to go.

THAT, my friends, is the cure for COVID.

Second wave….pshawwwwww!

Silly peoples.

#112 BillyBob on 09.08.20 at 9:12 am

#88 Nonplused on 09.08.20 at 1:19 am
#46 -=withwings=- on 09.07.20 at 7:49 pm
Working from home is here to stay.

maybe…

9/11 changed air travel forever.

For a year or so, then it was not only back to usual, but a huge boom in cheap travel spurned massive growth!

——————————

I don’t think it went “back to usual”. We got the TSA, huge lineups, full body scanners, pat downs, and all kinds of other restrictions. All that stuff costs money so travel costs were higher than they would have been otherwise.

===============================================

Yet, worldwide air travel continued to grow massively post-9/11, setting new records every year since right up until Covid-19.

I still remember the many, many people who after 9/11 declared with the kind of faux wisdom I’m hearing now, “everyone will be too afraid to ever fly again”.

Not quite.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/564717/airline-industry-passenger-traffic-globally/

And judging from the crazy crowds I see for the few flights that ARE operating, there’s a lot of pent-up demand. Sure, it’s a different crisis, different cause, certainly a longer timeline for recovery, but there will be another generation just itching to experience more of the world than they can on their Zoom calls. It’s innate.

Unless you’re too afraid to leave the GTA bubble, of course. But that sort of fearfulness and stubbornly narrow worldview predated Covid-19 anyway.

#113 TurnerNation on 09.08.20 at 9:17 am

#74 WhackoNation haha no but the guy making the New System leak/info in late 60’s that soccer would be only permitted sport might be on to something. And that college football would be harder to dismantle. Really all they must do is give us more Case #’s then close the colleges in USA and go online schooling only to meet that goal.

6 months in and:
– CFL football league is cancelled.
– Toronto Blue Jays baseball team banned from the country.
– NBA played staged a work stoppage.

— speaking of games if you see latest quote from UN-controlled Dr. T.T. you see they are just gaming us now. Total mockery as they pull the strings. Killing time until the new green deal drops this year. Harvest season is here: you assets.
Only a few useful idiots are supporting the New System

#114 neo on 09.08.20 at 9:23 am

#14 Steven Nicolle on 09.07.20 at 4:51 pm
There will be a second wave. No maybe about that. Going to be rough.

Sure, second wave of new cases….not hospitalizations with people on ventilators and deaths.

What we are seeing recently is the virus being more contagious and less deadly. That’s what happens with viruses in later stages to survive. You can’t survive killing the host.

It’s only going to be “rough” because of the overreaction to new cases and the damage already done previously.

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.08.20 at 9:28 am

@#85 nonplused
“– Anything can be used as money. Weird things have.”

+++

I always admired the polynesians that hacked coins that weighed up to a ton out of rock , loaded them on a tippy skiffs, sailed hundreds of miles across open ocean, possibly drowning in the process, to make a deposit to their local chief…..

Now THATS money.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/02/15/131934618/the-island-of-stone-money

#116 evelyn on 09.08.20 at 9:43 am

For the last 20 years, I have seen so many times conditions for the real estate price to go down in Toronto and nothing happen. I lost hope. I think RE in Toronto is inmune to any pandemic, unemployment numbers, earthquakes, interest rates, political events etc.

#117 Captain Uppa on 09.08.20 at 9:55 am

Well, the hits keep coming. Big firms sub-leasing core office space. Another shot across the bow for those who think WFH is a fad.

Link: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-large-companies-begin-to-sublease-office-space-in-toronto/

The issue may not be that WFH is replacing office employment, bot rather than companies are preparing to ‘rightsize’ their workforces. First to go, or be diminished, are those the overlords don’t see everyday. Careful what you wish for. – Garth

#118 Ace Goodheart on 09.08.20 at 9:59 am

A different perspective on COVID:

Drmalcolmkendrick.org

If Dr. Kendrick is right, they inflated the numbers by 10x when doing the modeling, the WHO deliberately exaggerated the case count and death count, they are inter changing the words “case” and “infection” in order to make things look worse than they really are, and this is all due to “saving face”.

We do know that the UK inflates its COVID death numbers by counting any death of a person, as a death from COVID, if at any time in the past, that person was infected with COVID (ie if they tested positive, not if they were actually sick).

As Dr. Kendrick points out, in the UK, you could test positive for COVID, not get sick, and then six months later get hit by a bus, and your death would be attributed to “death from COVID”.

COVID-19: the biggest scam ever? You decide I guess.

They are soon going to give us a choice: let them inject us with something and we can have our freedoms back, or refuse the injection and get locked down permanently.

I really want to know: what is in that needle?

#119 YouKnowWho - from PTO on 09.08.20 at 10:00 am

#85 Nonplused

——–

No doubt about it, fully agreed, and thank you for the details and info points to boot.

My thinking was more along the lines of the inflation number that is reported. If we do dip into deflation, perhaps they can pad that number with these taxes on energy or tariffs on certain goods so that we stay on the positive side of the zero, stop prices from dropping too much.

On the other hand, it has been pointed out a number of times that the reported inflation number is under reported by a significant factor already vs. reality, so my question about them fudging the inflation numbers for their benefit was rather childish in the first place perhaps.

After all, we live in a world of fudge. OMG…is it Vanilla Fudge world that we live in?

This JUST happened in my brain!

Set me free, why don’t you debt
Get out’my life, why don’t you debt
You really must want me
You just keep me borrowin’ on
You really must need me
You just keep me borrowin’ on

…not quite the chart hit, is it now? But these are words of truth, because what would happen to the world when the consumer can’t borrow no-mo?

OK, enjoy the real version then.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cft60HYb7Fs

#120 TurnerNation on 09.08.20 at 10:13 am

In Soviet Kanada we pretend to work and they pretend to pay us. Phantom airports and employees.
This Crown Virus/WW3 is the biggest wealth transfer since 2008, since Sept 11. Man our global rulers are good.
Always a crisis.

“Daniel-Robert Gooch, president of the Ottawa-based lobby group, said he is hoping the government will provide enough help to cover a “big chunk” of the almost $3-billion airports will need to borrow through the end of next year to cover expenses and keep workers employed. The Liberal government has been reluctant to make any moves that could be seen as bailing out specific companies or industries, even in troubled sectors like air travel. Instead, the government has launched a series of less-targeted lending and subsidy programs for business. The alternatives, said Mr. Gooch, include fare increases to the potential closure of smaller airports.
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved”

#121 YouKnowWho - from PTO on 09.08.20 at 10:33 am

Wrong names on first version, here is revision. So obvious, shame on me for missing it on first pass.

Justin and Chrystia
Sitting in a tree
Keeping
Inflation
Soaring
Splendidly
In debt
Note
Ginormously

#122 YouKnowWho - from PTO on 09.08.20 at 10:36 am

#85 Nonplused

—————

WAIT A MINUTE!

Isn’t inflation in the first place a method of price fixing?

Isn’t price fixing absolutely illegal?

#123 Trish on 09.08.20 at 10:55 am

The blog dogs are waxing poetic
Attention to metre’s pathetic
With thoughts all in verse
The logic’s much worse
I’m surprised Garth is so copacetic!

Does verse on a dog blog become…..doggerel? ;)

#124 Captain Uppa on 09.08.20 at 10:57 am

The issue may not be that WFH is replacing office employment, bot rather than companies are preparing to ‘rightsize’ their workforces. First to go, or be diminished, are those the overlords don’t see everyday. Careful what you wish for. – Garth

——————————————

It’s possible. But what difference does it make to sit at home all day on the computer or at work? That’s wasted money by the company on RE among other costs. If productivity is not there from a WFH employee, then they get let go – the same if they were unproductive in the office.

Also, I do not wish for or against it, I am just interested in the situation and what effects it can have.

#125 Mark Schnarr on 09.08.20 at 11:06 am

Cases heading back up!
Rain falling!
Temperature dropping!
Schools returning! Teachers whining!
CERB will have to come back!

#126 the Jaguar on 09.08.20 at 11:17 am

@#112 BillyBob on 09.08.20 at 9:12 am
#88 Nonplused on 09.08.20 at 1:19 am
#46 -=withwings=- on 09.07.20 at 7:49 pm

Interesting article in the Post this morning about possible cabin changes on airplanes to make passengers feel more safe, excerpt below.

‘Headrest canopies and fabric barriers between seats could start appearing in airplane cabins as the embattled industry tries to ward off the coronavirus.’

Wonder how they will handle those annoying passengers who seem to pop up and form a line in the isle immediately after the seat belt light goes off to use the washrooms. Maybe they should have a recording or video in the pre-boarding area that advises passengers to use the airport facilities before boarding the plane, not to drink beer in the airport pubs 300 minutes prior to boarding, and take your damn jackets off before you board the plane. Boarding aircraft has become increasingly like a circus because so many people are utterly clueless. Every flight attendant should be issued a riding crop.

#127 the Jaguar on 09.08.20 at 11:18 am

ooops. of course that was meant to read 30 minutes prior….

#128 Dogman01 on 09.08.20 at 11:19 am

#90 Nonplused on 09.08.20 at 1:39 am

RE Michael Moore, Planet of the Humans:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE

————————————————————
The environmentalists are upset and an attempt was made to ban this documentary because at heart Micheal Moore is still an environmentalist but he is exposing the “movement”.
His two conclusions I took form this:

1. Private for profit interests have taken over the environmental movement and solutions proposed are being touted for industry profit and personal gain not efficacy. ( a typical shyster religion where the prophets will make profits)

2. Human Over Population is the foundational problem and no green energy solution or combination can support current population, the Green Movement knows most people will not support solutions to the overpopulation core issue.

3. The Environmental movement has been hijacked by snake oil salesman, solutions are a scam and will not solve the problem, but for most supporters it simply acts as a religion allowing them a virtue pass and excuse to not think. “Whatever your causes, it’s a lost cause without population control.”

Canada’s leaders virtue signal their devotion with domestic Supply Destruction, as Demand destruction will never occur in any meaningful way. The green New Deal will be graft for Liberal connected crony’s and a huge long term white elephant for Canada.

The reality is that fossil fuels are going to continue to increase in use in the world. So all Canada’s doing by destroying its own industry is giving those production barrels and that opportunity to countries that don’t have the ethical system, and that don’t have the human rights system and that don’t have even the production efficiency of Canada. Canadians blocking Canadian energy to instead use Saudi Energy is NUTS.

#129 TurnerNation on 09.08.20 at 11:42 am

Welp a good reminder you get Cases only doing fun stuff. Like Weddings. And it must be front page news. Let this be a lesson. Comply or else.
Never cases at boring government offices, at Big Box stores or in homeless shelters.
https://www.cp24.com/mobile/news/covid-19-case-count-linked-to-gta-wedding-climbs-to-23-1.5095105

^ This will continue until the New Green Deals are released in Canada, USA.

#130 yvr_lurker on 09.08.20 at 11:43 am

#77 Dont you have some classes to prepare for?
5 months is never enough.

————
Am all set to go on various online platforms, and spent months practicing how to deliver it effectively. Now just run along now and focus on your 30% top ups on your quotes for work to our Gov’t.

#131 Ubul on 09.08.20 at 12:07 pm

First to go, or be diminished, are those the overlords don’t see everyday. Careful what you wish for. – Garth

The most opportunistic overlords I know demanded everyone back to the office ASAP, full time, with 25% wage cut, while they have been hiding “in isolation” ever since the news of “pandemic” hit the wire, months ago.

#132 Howard on 09.08.20 at 12:28 pm

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.08.20 at 8:33 am
@#84 jane24

“If London England, the second financial centre of the world after NYC…”

++++

Not for much longer now that BREXIT is winding its way through the political and finacial morass that is the EU.
And China has its way with the former colonies (HK comes to mind) under their jackboot.
No , sadly , London is on the wane.

But you must also be commended.
You didnt brag about the multiple houses or how fabulously rich you are.

————————

LOL.

Whenever I see Jane’s name as I scroll the steerage section, I wonder how many lines in it will be before she mentions her vacation home in Italy.

#133 Mattl on 09.08.20 at 12:38 pm

#124 Captain Uppa on 09.08.20 at 10:57 am
The issue may not be that WFH is replacing office employment, bot rather than companies are preparing to ‘rightsize’ their workforces. First to go, or be diminished, are those the overlords don’t see everyday. Careful what you wish for. – Garth

——————————————

It’s possible. But what difference does it make to sit at home all day on the computer or at work? That’s wasted money by the company on RE among other costs. If productivity is not there from a WFH employee, then they get let go – the same if they were unproductive in the office.

Also, I do not wish for or against it, I am just interested in the situation and what effects it can have.

———————————————————-

I agree with you. But there are still some dinosaur management types that have to see the employee sitting in a cubicle to believe they are working.

For the rest of us, productivity is very easily managed remotely. I see my employees by video every day. And our CRM allows me to “see” what they are doing in real time. Our experience has been in increase in productivity over the past 5 months. So I am moving my last few based office folks to t2200 status.

My colleagues are doing the same. FWIW we are a fortune 500 and have been closing office space and moving people home the past decade. This event has solidified for us that WFH as a model works.

I hope competitors move their employees back into office, will create a larger pool of talent that is now hooked on WHF = more talent for me.

#134 Handsome Ned on 09.08.20 at 1:03 pm

#126 Jaguar re: flight attendants with riding crops.

I knew a guy who was part of a delegation visiting the former USSR. They were delayed boarding an Aeroflot flight and a woman delegate complained loudly to a stewardess. She pulled out a truncheon from her dress and split open the womans forehead.

#135 the Jaguar on 09.08.20 at 1:25 pm

@#134 Handsome Ned on 09.08.20 at 1:03 pm

I knew a guy who was part of a delegation visiting the former USSR. They were delayed boarding an Aeroflot flight and a woman delegate complained loudly to a stewardess. She pulled out a truncheon from her dress and split open the womans forehead.+++

Sounds like she had it coming.

#136 Looking up on 09.08.20 at 1:41 pm

#134 Handsome Ned on 09.08.20 at 1:03 pm
#126 Jaguar re: flight attendants with riding crops.

I knew a guy who was part of a delegation visiting the former USSR. They were delayed boarding an Aeroflot flight and a woman delegate complained loudly to a stewardess. She pulled out a truncheon from her dress and split open the womans forehead.

————————

That story screams urban myth.

#137 Barb on 09.08.20 at 1:51 pm

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.20 at 9:34 pm

————————————————
Agree with your every word!

#138 Handsome Ned on 09.08.20 at 2:53 pm

#136 Looking up

I’ve been to Russia, the women there are fierce. You do not want to mess with “bubushkas”. Try not giving exact change to an elderly female bus conductor.

#139 Vstrom Rider on 09.08.20 at 3:47 pm

How do you get a 1.5% mortgage? Or is that VRM only? I’m being offered 1.89% 5 yr fixed. Should I take it or look for something better?

If you’re stressing over a 49 basis-point difference, you need to go for a ride. – Garth

#140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.08.20 at 3:55 pm

Forest fire smoke is unbelievable in the Lower Brain Land today.
Apparently from Washington State.
Its like standing next to a campfire….. all day.

#141 conan on 09.08.20 at 4:00 pm

I think Trump loses badly. He might decide to not put his own money into his reelection , and leave early. Get Pence to pardon him, and then he only has to deal with the NY charges etc , and keep most of his money.

I can see him leaving early and collapsing his business empire. I can not imagine anything worse than a commercial real estate empire with a serious amount of debt that needs to be financed.
Trump is pooched

#142 maxx on 09.08.20 at 4:06 pm

@ #5

Results aren’t in yet. Not by a long shot.

The last thing ANY economy needs is to mainline the lazy gene. Work from home is a joke. I’m certain that some are honest and put in a good day’s effort, however, I’m sick of hearing stuff like: “just did my shopping on office time”, “had a great time in the pool”, nudge, nudge.

Anyone who is convinced that this is the way of the future does not own a business, is clueless or is one of the lemmings who ran screaming to the burbs to buy a crappy dump at over asking.

I wouldn’t trust the average Canucklehead with a WFH arrangement. It can’t even manage its finances for dog’s sake.

#143 RyYYZ on 09.08.20 at 4:21 pm

Speaking of this subject, saw a story on the National last night (via YouTube), about a couple who were planning a purchase of a condo in Toronto, but with WFH they had switched to buying a suburban home instead.

I think people may be a little hasty thinking that everything has changed permanently, after all of 6 months. I’m cool with WFH, from my existing home. Or going to the office. I chose my workplace based partially on being able to live with the commute. I’d rather slit my wrists than go back to spending 3+ hours a day commuting. BTDT, wore out a car in 5 years, narrowly escaped a couple major accidents, narrowly escaped death in the last one. 3 hours a day on the highways around here is suicidal.

#144 RyYYZ on 09.08.20 at 4:29 pm

#142 maxx on 09.08.20 at 4:06 pm

Results aren’t in yet. Not by a long shot.

The last thing ANY economy needs is to mainline the lazy gene. Work from home is a joke. I’m certain that some are honest and put in a good day’s effort, however, I’m sick of hearing stuff like: “just did my shopping on office time”, “had a great time in the pool”, nudge, nudge.
===================================
Pretty poor manager who doesn’t know what his people are doing, only if they are at their desks or not. What makes you think such people were productive before WFH?

#145 Reality is stark on 09.08.20 at 5:44 pm

Stagflation folks.
You can bet your house on it.
I am never wrong.

#146 maxx on 09.08.20 at 5:53 pm

@ #144 RyYYZ

Managers are not omniscient, most especially when staff are at home. Duh.

I guarantee that many of the “W”FH shoppers and pool-siders are even less productive now. Far less.

#147 Squire on 09.08.20 at 6:12 pm

#144 RyYYZ on 09.08.20 at 4:29 pm
——————————————-
#142 maxx on 09.08.20 at 4:06 pm

Results aren’t in yet. Not by a long shot.

The last thing ANY economy needs is to mainline the lazy gene. Work from home is a joke. I’m certain that some are honest and put in a good day’s effort, however, I’m sick of hearing stuff like: “just did my shopping on office time”, “had a great time in the pool”, nudge, nudge.
===================================
Pretty poor manager who doesn’t know what his people are doing, only if they are at their desks or not. What makes you think such people were productive before WFH?
——————————————
#144 RyYYZ on 09.08.20 at 4:29 pm
——————————————

I agree with RyYYZ. Some managers are just garbage. If you’re a good manager, most employees respect that and go the extra to be team players. The employees that don’t can be weeded out fairly quick. I worked from home often prior to covid and found I was often alot more productive at home. It’s quite annoying to be distracted by coworker chit chat and needy coworkers who can’t even figure out how a damn printer works. It’s 2020… get with it. In my experience, a mix of home and office work well and accomplishes the “collaboration” and other catchy corp words they love using. Not all businesses benefits from WFH but alot do. Interesting times. I would worry more about China than WFH. Just saying…. take a good look at what MSM fails to report. A little bit of effort reveals alot.
RE: Real estate and FOMO, sometimes doing nothing is best. Sock boys plans Sep 23rd will reveal a clear path. Butts pulling strings, look at Ontario during McGuinty Gov years. That will open your eyes to failed green initiatives and what to expect from Sock boy (Butts)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/ontario-disaster-architects-1.3884108

#148 maxx on 09.08.20 at 8:17 pm

@ #147

Most “garbage” managers were weeded out long ago. No one can survive today’s economy by producing crap results for very long at all. Sorry.

Furthermore, I think you’re both using a teensy weensy little metric to substantiate your agendas, just because it, really, really works for you.

It may be 2020, but results are what counts….to any manager worth their salt, and most jobs are nowhere near suited to family, pet, ‘phone, shopping, friends or other interruptions.

#149 Think Botanicals on 09.11.20 at 1:27 pm

The unemployment rate is growing, and this is evidenced by the deteriorating quality of the labor market. The crisis is everywhere and it will affect every one of us! Sanity should prevail, but not yet = ///