Poochedness

Photo credit: whitevalhallawolves

More than 500,000 households, at latest count, still aren’t paying their mortgages. That’s about $140 billion in debt. Thus, over $300 million per month is being added to outstanding debt, as interest piles up. Oh, plus there’s another $100 billion in LOC and credit card debt that’s gone unserviced.

In total, three million Canadians took a Covid payment holiday. That’s 25% of all the households in the nation, or 16% of employment-aged citizens. The biggest deferrers were people aged 35 to 44.

Says the bankruptcy association: “There is a large proportion of Canadians who are already technically insolvent; they are unable to pay their bills and debt repayment obligations each month. Most who are in this position are using COVID-related financial support to make ends meet. But we know that many of these individuals will need debt relief when the temporary support ends.”

It’s starting to emerge that Covid came to town at a convenient time for a lot of folks, who were sinking into a state of poochedness all on their own. The shuttered offices, job losses, recession, lockdowns and quarantines led to (a) the temporary suspension of crippling debt payments and (b) a gush of federal money, from CERB to enhanced child pogey to wage subsidies.

“Delinquency rates held up relatively well and do not reflect the sharp rise in job losses thanks to the various support mechanisms,” says credit bureau Equifax. “One in five people utilizing deferred payments were already financially stressed prior to the start of the pandemic. Some of these consumers may find it harder to recover as support mechanisms start to reduce.”

Indeed. We now know household debt is going up again. In the last year 12 million households managed to add $55 billion to the pile, now sitting at just under $2 trillion. Most of that comes from mortgages – interest on all those deferred payments plus new borrowing thanks for the Virus Housing Boom.

As stated here a few times since FOMO arrived for the second time in five years, there are reasons the current real estate frenzy will not last and buying now is a really, really, really bad idea. We’re in a recession. The jobless rate is awful and will take years to drop to early-2020 levels. Debt is off the chart. Government spending is out of control. The virus is not over. There’s no cure. Some industries are in critical condition. People are panic buying, paying too much and making rash choices. The US election could end in a protracted crisis. Mortgage deferrals are ending. And people who should know – CMHC and the Bank of Canada (among them) are warning you about an unsustainable housing market.

We know what the immediate reasons for the feeding frenzy are. Pent-up demand (Covid stole the spring market). Remote work (people think this is forever and are rushing to bigger homes, further out). Insecurity and the need to nest (the virus makes everything scary). All of these are pandemic causes. And what folks forget is that pandemics are temporary. They pass. This one will, too. Making huge lifestyle decisions and snorfling massive debt based on a temporal event is, well, one definition of human fallibility.

Beyond the virus, this also accounts for the outburst of house horniness…

Interest rates have been in a long-term decline for the last thirty years. Central banks seriously whacked the cost of money to deal with the 2008 credit crisis, and again when oil prices collapsed in 2015. Now Covid has delivered another gut-punch to the economy, and the Bank of Canada has responded by crushing the cost of debt.

Some people – many of whom come to this blog to justify bad behaviour – think interest rates will never rise again. But if they don’t, when the next financial crapstorm hits, central bankers will be out of bullets. Any downturn would be deeper, longer and fatal for indebted homeowners.

Second, what if house prices have really only gone up over the past few years because the cost of money has gone down? This pandemic is a great example. House values have flared when the economy tanked, millions lost their jobs and millions more couldn’t even pay their mortgage or credit card monthlies. That made absolutely no sense – until you realize 1.5% home loans allow more debt. More debt brings real estate appreciation. Until the drugs run out.

So if rates stay in the ditch with mortgages bottoming at these levels and the economy in a long recession why would prices rise from here? And when the next slowdown (or worse) materializes there will be no more narcotics to dole out. The debt, however, will remain.

Is this a solid personal strategy?

147 comments ↓

#1 YouKnowWho - from PTO on 09.06.20 at 2:45 pm

TurnerNation, this one is for you!

Big tech companies want to help get you back in the office

They are offering services to track employees, arrange tests, and record results.

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/09/john-boyega-is-right-about-star-wars/

#2 Doug t on 09.06.20 at 2:46 pm

Garth I have to say thanks – been here awhile and especially since this pandemic hit I have reminded myself to follow your path – and so far so good – we are financially doing well, being very cautious and watching the storm and looking to better days

THANKS

#3 Millennial905er on 09.06.20 at 2:52 pm

Garth, you’re not making me feel secure in the Tangerine Balanced Growth Portfolio I just opened in my TFSA. I thought it was funny that it includes TD and Royal Bank. Am I pooched too with all these deferrals?

Actually with rates low and bonds giving little income more money is flowing into equities, banks included. You made a good choice. – Garth

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.20 at 2:54 pm

The Govt is between a rock ( recession) and a hard place ( low interest rates) with no where to go……

Almost worth it to see “Selfie” form the next govt and live with the disastrous economic results over the next 4 years while we all “go green” and rename all our Parks, Schools, Towns, Libraries to more acceptable, non binary, politically correct versions of their former selves.

History re-written as it were… because rewriting history and patting oneself on the back……. is vastly more important than ….the economy.

#5 Mark on 09.06.20 at 3:01 pm

Great argument.
Same one as been told for years and decades, yet the people who are supposed to be pooches, and how housing is supposed to grind slowly lower still has not happened.
Of course no one is listening?

#6 Dolce Vita on 09.06.20 at 3:01 pm

“….why would prices rise from here?”

My Liege, again:

1. FOMO Canadian RE culture inbred, pandemic be damned.
2. Felon* Cdn. Banks that lend to breathing and warm #1 at cut rates.
3. Gov Canada (CMHC) that lets #2 do, what they do, risk free.

*Scotiabank Fined $127 Million, TD Bank fined $122M by Uncle Sam.

Johnny Canuck & Cdn MSM** about Felon Cdn Banks:

see no evil, hear no evil, speak…

Like CERB, PM Daddy Warbucks $600 MM gravy train buys compliance.

—————————

Garth, you’re the only one that sees, speaks and hears of Cdn debt spiralling out of control be it Gov or Household.

Keep fighting the good fight but I’m afraid no one cares until the bottom drops out…AND IT WILL, when who knows? BUT IT WILL.

Again, history a good teacher…few pupils.

#7 Don Guillermo on 09.06.20 at 3:03 pm

Maybe this post would have been more appropriate for the great “Credit River” debate. I googled it and Wiki says:

“The origins of the English name come from the time when French fur traders supplied goods to the native people in advance (on credit) against furs which would be delivered the following spring. It was known as the Rivière au Crédit.”

Could be an opportunity for another of those terrible CBC’s award winning, tax payer funded TV series that nobody watches.

#8 yorkville renter on 09.06.20 at 3:03 pm

the only known is that everything coming is unknown… sanity left the building a L O N G time ago

#9 Ribeye Tacos with Spicy Pineapple Salsa on 09.06.20 at 3:07 pm

Why have interest rates been declining for 30 years? Given debt has increased through that decline, why would any Central Bank want, or even be able to, raise interest rate any appreciable amount?

#10 Ace Goodheart on 09.06.20 at 3:10 pm

I think we are headed into a big old nasty recession and that this reality is being covered over right now by ideology (the “woke” movement), government money printing and the “mass distraction” event of a “pandemic”

The pandemic might be a symptom of global recession, and not a cause. Instead of getting out and earning money, people were locked down, put in fear and had their economic lives destroyed, to be replaced with lots of freshly printed “free” money.

I know of many people right now who literally have no idea what they are going to do, when they have to start paying their mortgage again and their CERB runs out.

Many of these folks have purchased pre construction condos as “investments”, paying the down payment using equity from their houses (before the bank regulator banned that).

Ask anyone in Ottawa where Trudeau plans to get all the cash he is promising to spend.

It will all just be printed. He controls the printer somehow. If he needs more cash he just gets our central bank to create it, and loan it to his government.

No need to collect taxes. No need to have GDP. Just print more money.

Canada is not producing anything. Our tourist industry is dead. It is dangerous to be a tourist in Canada right now. People will verbally assault you. They will damage your car. You face possible arrest for violating difficult to understand emergency quarantine orders.

Our hotels and restaurants? Done like dinner.

Our oil and gas industries? In the process of being shut down by a “woke” prime minister.

Manufacturing? The USA has turned protectionist. They are the customer for most of our manufactured exports.

Banks? They hold a lot of very low interest, mostly un-repayable mortgage debt.

There is no economic engine here. There is just a “woke” PM who is printing money and who appears to be sliding dangerously left in his views.

Big old nasty recession on the way….

#11 willworkforpickles on 09.06.20 at 3:11 pm

The pandemic set the stage for pent up RE demand and explosive price growth that otherwise would not have come about prior to it’s existence.
Frenzied buying is driven by emotion out of check with reality. The frenzied buyer often comes to realize how when fools rush in it does carry some serious weight.
As with a sucker’s rally in the markets there is a cause and effect cycle to consider also with an explosion of buyers chasing a limited supply of properties at insane prices.
With the FOMO factor at play drawing all would be buyers out of the woodwork at the same time, a vacuum or empty space is eventually created. An empty space of diminished numbers of qualified buyers.
The empty gap space of diminished buyers created as a result of so many frenzied sales so soon and the kind of buyer that comes later to replace them is the reaction akin to an elastic band snapping back as if to back fill a widened gap.
Will there be anybody frenzy buying into 2021?
The buying frenzy of 2020 could very likely see the reverse in 2021 of motivated sellers turn panic sellers over the very real lack of buyers who maxed out in 2020 leaving a void to be filled but of and mainly of those with cash in their place who buy at discount prices for pennies on the dollar.
…..I’m not talking about real estate the last 10 – 12 years…I’m talking specifically about 2020/2021 here.

#12 Stone on 09.06.20 at 3:13 pm

What if the Bank of Canada rate went back up to (humour me) 10%?

I wonder how things would be like at that point.

#13 Drill Baby Drill on 09.06.20 at 3:19 pm

Don’t worry all of you millenial and woke Canadians. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is here to save us in Canada. Hey every other country is doing it so it must be ok.

#14 the Jaguar on 09.06.20 at 3:26 pm

That’s an interesting graph. My observation is that interest rates appeared to be ‘on the climb’ in the period immediately preceding the Category Five Hurricane named Covid 19 came ashore.
Can’t help but wonder what will happen when the worlds engines truly start up again. And those badass Russians are apparently getting good results from the Sputnik V vaccine, despite the jealous sneers of other countries. Then there is that old meme about ‘as oil goes, so goes GDP’. And with rig count down from 600 to 150 per Mr. Berman’s words, one never knows what can happen. Jeeps…I think I hear the sound of the Cavalry riding in………….

#15 Toronto_CA on 09.06.20 at 3:30 pm

I know you keep on drumming that people working remotely most days of the work week is going away – and time will tell on that, Mr Turner.

But don’t you think some of this will become self-fulfilling prophecy in that those who move out of the city into houses further away will dictate to their employers that they won’t come in more than 1-3 days a week to the office?

Especially the longer working from home goes on, I don’t think we can say it is going away with as much certainty as is told here. But as I said, time will tell.

Excellent post, as always.

#16 Generation Screwed on 09.06.20 at 3:32 pm

Hey another $100B/yr in deficit spending will cure all…

#17 Northshore guy on 09.06.20 at 3:33 pm

FOMO is driving people crazy.
But if all these buyers are getting their loans after passing the stress test then they should be able to handle higher interest rates when they renew 5 yrs later.
We could afford to service million dollar mortgage but we are only approved for 800k. So the stress test is doing its job.

Actually the threat I articulated in this post is not rising rates but ones that do not increase. – Garth

#18 FreeBird on 09.06.20 at 3:56 pm

#1 YouKnowWho – from PTO on 09.06.20 at 2:45 pm
TurnerNation, this one is for you!

Big tech companies want to help get you back in the office

They are offering services to track employees, arrange tests, and record results.

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/09/john-boyega-is-right-about-star-wars/
————————-
Was seen as crazy theory by some (still) but concept in use by various industries using diff forms of tech incl human microchip implants for few yrs now. Fairly easy now to contact trace using wearable/implantable chip to certify vaccine w/ID and or virus status. Due to controversy over accuracy of tests will companies offering to track make third part independent verification for accuracy of tests avail along w/actual lab results avail to employees? In Ontario we have a right to access copies of our lab/test results and reports. Has that been quietly changed? Try to get copies of your Covid test results. We still have a right to inform consent. For now?

https://medium.com/pcmag-access/the-quantified-employee-how-companies-use-tech-to-track-workers-f182afdfe233

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.sciencetimes.com/amp/articles/11643/20170405/employees-implanted-microchip-swedish-company-turning-humans-cyborgs.htm

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/states-are-cracking-down-on-companies-microchipping-their-employees-how-common-is-it-and-why-does-it-happen-2020-02-03

Contact tracing in Australia:
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/17/covid-safe-app-australia-covidsafe-contact-tracing-australian-government-covid19-tracking-problems-working

#19 yvr_lurker on 09.06.20 at 4:01 pm

All true. Many are pooched when it comes time to start paying again. However, isn’t a bit flippant to say
“When Covid came to town….”.

More accurately, it should be “As a result of the neglect by China at shutting down their live animal markets after the SARS episode in 2003, and despite many scientific studies detailing the dangers of pathogens lurking therein, the increased globalization of our world with hundreds of flights a day linking every corner of our globe, has allowed Covid to readily visit almost every town on our planet.”

Long-winded yes, but a significantly more accurate statement.

#20 Apocalypse2020 on 09.06.20 at 4:02 pm

60 days to Global Catastrophe.

PREPARE

#21 KNOW IT ALL on 09.06.20 at 4:05 pm

So why then don’t they have mandatory personal finance courses in grade school and high school?

Thats where this starts – I see this all the time. Guys and gals making 6 figures turning wrenches but never had to take one class in personal finance.

They end up in major debt cuz thats what their taught to do, just follow the crowd.

And the sad part is thats the way employers want it too. They dont want their best employees to quit because they figured out financial freedom.

As long as major industries are running the secondary school systems then the rich will get richer and everyone else will pay for it.

Thats a SYSTEMIC issue in our society that needs to be dealt with and if not then prepare for more of the same.

#22 FreeBird on 09.06.20 at 4:21 pm

It’s not bad enough a 20 yr old kid’s loss of thousands on Robin Hood app wasn’t tragic enough or a wake up call for the call for the industry but I just saw an on YT for revenue/profit accelerator classes (trading) using what looks like a 10 yr old girl beside a lemon aid type stand wearing a Hawaiian rainbow coloured lei talking about how she ‘used to make her money‘ using the stand until she found (person X). I won’t help them by naming them here. It’s disturbing and to me gone too far.

#23 BlorgDorg on 09.06.20 at 4:25 pm

I’ve long argued that real estate became unhinged around 2001 when rates crossed about 5% in response to the dot com bubble bursting. Prior to that, the common belief was that about 6% was a “neutral” rate for borrowing (and investment returns).

Real estate will only normalize when the next crisis (or maybe this one, just delayed) hits and the only option is more BoC liquidity, igniting inflation and pushing rates back up. My money is still on this happening later this year or early 2021.

Can you even imagine what would happen if everyone’s mortgage was 5-6%? Interesting times, to say the least.

#24 Leftover on 09.06.20 at 4:34 pm

What many people have missed is the CAD rally since March. The USD/CAD rate March 20 was 1.45, today it’s 1.30, roughly a 10% change. That gives our Central Bank and Mr. Trudeau a lot of headroom, at least for now. Rates can stay low as long as the Fed keeps printing money.

But will the Fed keep the presses running? Honestly, I think they are more likely to do so with Trump than Biden, because Biden will raise taxes and cut military spending. We don’t have that luxury.

Come November 4th, things may change. While Trudeau is fond of saying, “we’ve got your back”, the bond market doesn’t and will act decisively. As Garth says, the central bank will be out of bullets.

#25 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.20 at 4:52 pm

@#20 Apocalypse 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020…

“60 days to Global Catastrophe.”

+++
Poxy!

Bored posting as Turner Nation?

#26 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.06.20 at 4:58 pm

#12 Stone on 09.06.20 at 3:13 pm
What if the Bank of Canada rate went back up to (humour me) 10%?

I wonder how things would be like at that point.
——————————————————————
If rates went to 10%? The lights would go out well before they hit 10%…

#27 Camille on 09.06.20 at 4:59 pm

I’ve learned rates were comparably low in the 1930s. But they could stay low a long time, or not. Garth’s investment approach (60/40 with preferreds in the fixed income side, and short duration corporate bonds) has performed well. Short duration corporates bonds performed well in the covid drawdown (low interest rate exposure and generally high BBB quality). Of course the overall maximum drawdown must have been dizzying, but if you think that’s the way it is, then so be it. Garth knows more than I, except my risk tolerance.
I bought preferreds based on this blog, and they were my biggest losers. I’m considering topping up my REITs, because my international stock and other dividends have gone down some. I can correct this by topping up my REITs (to 5% portfolio on stock side), as was recommended on this blog, part of rebalancing I expect.
But REITs are to date, still the worst performing asset in this recovery.
Garth, should I top it up?

REITs have been sold off beyond reason. Seems like an opportunity. – Garth

#28 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.06.20 at 5:06 pm

#24 Leftover on 09.06.20 at 4:34 pm
What many people have missed is the CAD rally since March. The USD/CAD rate March 20 was 1.45, today it’s 1.30, roughly a 10% change. That gives our Central Bank and Mr. Trudeau a lot of headroom, at least for now. Rates can stay low as long as the Fed keeps printing money.

But will the Fed keep the presses running? Honestly, I think they are more likely to do so with Trump than Biden, because Biden will raise taxes and cut military spending. We don’t have that luxury.
—————————————————————–

Why would the Fed, printer of the world’s reserve currency stop printing? Do you think Wall Street and all the billionaires who have benefitted from all this money printing would allow Biden to change course? Not a snowflake chance in hell…

#29 David on 09.06.20 at 5:09 pm

All those who deferred their mortgage payments or collected CERB may find their personal credit rating permanently impacted. To learn if you are affected simply complete and mail in this free credit rating report request: https://www.transunion.ca/resources/transunion-ca/doc/personal/Consumer_Disclosure_Request_Form_en.pdf

#30 In Garth, Not God We Trust on 09.06.20 at 5:13 pm

So if rates stay in the ditch with mortgages bottoming at these levels and the economy in a long recession why would prices rise from here? And when the next slowdown (or worse) materializes there will be no more narcotics to dole out. The debt, however, will remain. Is this a solid personal strategy?
—————————————————————

Future generations will look back and realize that a prophet was crying out in the financial wilderness of Canada and that prophet was the bearded mystic sage of Lunenberg, all knowing, all wise oracle from the east, denouncer of corrupt politicians, straight shooting parliamentarian in a swamp of swindlers, former Minister of National Revenues, NYTimes best selling author, soon to be recipient of the Order of Canada, faithful, loving and dedicated husband of 49 years, tea leaf reading financial prognosticator without equal, Harley riding badass, Canada’s greatest canine lover and last but not least, all round jolly good fellow.

You still can’t borrow the tug. – Garth

#31 Brian Ripley on 09.06.20 at 5:17 pm

My Employment chart for Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Montreal and their Provinces is up:
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html#Rate

Notice that before Covid 19 arrived in Canada at the beginning of 2020, the Bank of Canada’s policy preoccupation of targeting inflation at 2% succeeded in getting employment rates to approximately where they were 10 years ago and since the March 2009 crash and after 11.4 years of ZIRP & NIRP, inflation targeting and increasing corporate bailouts have offered little relief for labour sector payrolls.

Our new Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem said on June 22, 2020 “Our main concern is to avoid a persistent drop in inflation by helping Canadians get back to work.” The argument is that low rates of interest will stimulate the corporate markets to invest in production, hire more labour units and as wages rise produce more consumption GDP which Canada relies on for an “economy”.

Well it did not take a global pandemic to spoil that trickle-down plan. What did happen was that Canada joined the upper ranks of global unaffordable housing (Demographia), and irrational exuberant bubbles in “paper” assets as the corporate and private sectors inflated the fixed income and equity markets leaving the consumer to leverage itself and forgo savings in order to maintain lifestyle.

Beat the wealth gap, get an education and work from home.

#32 PBrasseur on 09.06.20 at 5:19 pm

The only way a central bank can be out of bullets is when markets lose confidence in the currency and people are pulling out. Until then they can drop money from an helicopter if they want to.

The reference was to rate reductions, not asset purchases. It rates have scraped bottom, house prices have peaked. I am sure you can grasp that. – Garth

#33 Re-Cowtown on 09.06.20 at 5:36 pm

Listings are piling up in Calgary. Houses are being re-listed and relisted and relisted, each time claiming “Newly Listed!” Price reductions are more common than positive COVID tests.

Looks like Calgarians are the only ones in Canada that can do math. The Stampede for the exits has begun.

Trudeau comes out with his new budget in 17 days. Anyone want to bet that it’ll try to stamp out the remaining fleeting embers of Oilpatch to cling to satisfy the NDP and cling to power.

There should be a law against throwing provinces under the bus when you don’t have a certain number of MP’s in those provinces. Trudeau’s best play is to actively screw Alberta. Just leaving us alone won’t work. To get NDP support he must be seen to clearly damage Alberta.

Tyranny in absentia.

#34 Freedom First on 09.06.20 at 5:41 pm

I wonder if there is any chance that the debtors prisons, that were run in the past, becoming part of a profitable financial solution to solve the debt crisis of todays world?

#35 Camille on 09.06.20 at 5:48 pm

Thank you Garth, sans prejudice think I will do that this month.

#36 jal on 09.06.20 at 5:49 pm

Alberta need more mfg jobs that oil could provide.

#37 AntMan on 09.06.20 at 5:52 pm

Ribeye Tacos with Spicy Pineapple Salsa on 09.06.20 at 3:07 pm

Why have interest rates been declining for 30 years? Given debt has increased through that decline, why would any Central Bank want, or even be able to, raise interest rate any appreciable amount?

—————————————————–

In fact, real rates have been declining for centuries:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018

Mortgages in Canada were 22% during my lifetime. – Garth

#38 AB on 09.06.20 at 6:04 pm

#33 Cowtown
This country has made Alberta their whipping boy. It is an absolute disgrace. Willful destruction of a provinces economy. Kicking us when we are down. Dare to mention this and are accused of being a whiner. Sad day to be a Canadian. Thanks a heap Trudeau voters.

#39 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.06.20 at 6:04 pm

23 BlorgDorg on 09.06.20 at 4:25 pm
I’ve long argued that real estate became unhinged around 2001 when rates crossed about 5% in response to the dot com bubble bursting. Prior to that, the common belief was that about 6% was a “neutral” rate for borrowing (and investment returns).

Real estate will only normalize when the next crisis (or maybe this one, just delayed) hits and the only option is more BoC liquidity, igniting inflation and pushing rates back up. My money is still on this happening later this year or early 2021.

Can you even imagine what would happen if everyone’s mortgage was 5-6%? Interesting times, to say the least.
————————————————————–
The times, they are deflationary mon ami. Japan has been battling deflation for 30 years and has printed more money than any other advanced nation. High levels of debt are deflationary. Low rates are here to stay for some time…

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/japan-s-long-deflation-battle-is-warning-for-post-virus-world-1.1442539

#40 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.06.20 at 6:11 pm

21 KNOW IT ALL on 09.06.20 at 4:05 pm
So why then don’t they have mandatory personal finance courses in grade school and high school?

Thats where this starts – I see this all the time. Guys and gals making 6 figures turning wrenches but never had to take one class in personal finance.
—————————————————————–

Well then how do you explain immigrants who came to this great land, without even a high school education, let alone high school finance courses, and went on to save and do well?

#41 Nonplused on 09.06.20 at 6:34 pm

“The US election will end in a protracted crisis.”

There I fixed it for you.

The thing that hasn’t been getting much attention is which way the house and the senate swing. I think at this point most people are ignoring it and assuming they will follow the president. That’s probably a good bet even if there is mail in voter fraud because I assume most people who vote red vote red all down the ballot and people who stuff votes for blue stuff them all down the ballot too.

I see it as unlikely, but perhaps the best outcome is Hiden wins but the Republicans take congress. That way no more Orange Man Bad and they can stop rioting, but the communist agenda won’t get anywhere.

I wonder if in retrospect the Golem of Greatness shouldn’t have retired citing unspecified health concerns and let Pence run? Surely that must have come up as a possibility. The GOP must have considered that option and decided they had to rely on the same voters that got Trump in the first time to do it again. You know, the basket of deplorables.

Or maybe the strategists are really really crafty and decided the riots and defund the police will work out in the GOP’s favor as aghast normal people turn red. Na, that’s too smart.

Anyway grab the popcorn on Nov.3 and set up 2 TV’s, one for Fox and one for CNN. Bring your iPod too so you can play Angry Birds while it’s slow.

#42 Nonplused on 09.06.20 at 6:47 pm

#13 Drill Baby Drill on 09.06.20 at 3:19 pm
Don’t worry all of you millenial and woke Canadians. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is here to save us in Canada. Hey every other country is doing it so it must be ok.

————————-

Even with the sort of MMT hybrid they are using, inflation can only rise so far before they have to raise rates. In a true MMT environment they wouldn’t “borrow” money into existence, they would just print it, but in theory even that printing is limited by inflation. It goes beyond my understanding but I wonder if they can’t actually create more money by “borrowing” it into existence, because then it is backed by some sort of bond, whereas if they just printed it I think people would get sick of it pretty quickly. “Borrowed” money has to go home in the form of interest and principle eventually, whereas printed money becomes cumulative. It just stays “out there”.

#43 Nonplused on 09.06.20 at 7:01 pm

#33 Re-Cowtown on 09.06.20 at 5:36 pm

There should be a law against throwing provinces under the bus when you don’t have a certain number of MP’s in those provinces. Trudeau’s best play is to actively screw Alberta. Just leaving us alone won’t work. To get NDP support he must be seen to clearly damage Alberta.

—————————-

It’s not just Alberta, it’s everyone from Manitoba to the coastal mountains in BC. But Trudeau and his handlers are smart enough to know the elections are decided in Quebec and Ontario. That is why the US senate is based on two senators from each state, regardless of population, to try and provide some balance to the “mob rule”. The electoral college is more complicated but was also designed to tamp down the mob. However California still ended up with 55 votes, which I don’t think the founding fathers anticipated.

#44 Beetman on 09.06.20 at 7:02 pm

If socks spends like the media is warning us about, there will be poverty coming that people can not even imagine. That will be the Justice for voting in that numb skull.

#45 Drinking on 09.06.20 at 7:04 pm

The PBO seems to think that we cannot sustain this debt for another year perhaps stretching it at two. I just do not see a good outcome to all this and T2 wants to add to it in an enormous way!

https://globalnews.ca/news/7316777/yves-giroux-federal-deficit-spending/

#46 devore on 09.06.20 at 7:16 pm

#19 yvr_lurker

More accurately, it should be “As a result of the neglect by China at shutting down their live animal markets after the SARS episode in 2003, and despite many scientific studies detailing the dangers of pathogens lurking therein, the increased globalization of our world with hundreds of flights a day linking every corner of our globe, has allowed Covid to readily visit almost every town on our planet.”

Long-winded yes, but a significantly more accurate statement.

And? What difference does it make?

#47 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.06.20 at 7:17 pm

#40 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.06.20 at 6:11 pm
21 KNOW IT ALL on 09.06.20 at 4:05 pm
So why then don’t they have mandatory personal finance courses in grade school and high school?

Thats where this starts – I see this all the time. Guys and gals making 6 figures turning wrenches but never had to take one class in personal finance.
—————————————————————–

Well then how do you explain immigrants who came to this great land, without even a high school education, let alone high school finance courses, and went on to save and do well?

——-

Well if it isn’t good ol’ drunkle Al… Pretending again… Immigrating to Canada isn’t as simple as you think.. usually you come across on a student visa or a work visa, then you need to apply for permanent residency with a letter from your employer, then after 1500 hours of work (in Canada – not just living here) you can apply for citizenship after testing. Our immigrants/immigration are/is some of the best in the world.

How do I know? First generation Canadian, and have 3 employees going through the process currently…

MF would need to tell us how a someone without high school could immigrate here… I believe he works in immigration…

#48 George S on 09.06.20 at 7:19 pm

The biggest mistake people make when predicting the future is to assume that things are not going to change. For example: basing future performance on past performance orextrapolating graphs out into the future.

(remember “it’s different this time” until it wasn’t)

Like you I have seen 23.5% floating rate mortgages, and 17.5% per year 5 year term deposits. Our first house was bought with a 14% fixed rate private mortgage from a relative who gave us a good deal. Those rates came up suddenly as a way to try and control inflation. At that time wages were going up 10 to 12% every year. Prices were rising like crazy.
Without raising interest rates as an option, a government might be tempted to “let ‘er rip” and see what happens, an interesting experiment but probably disastrous to say the least.

#49 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.06.20 at 7:23 pm

#37 AntMan on 09.06.20 at 5:52 pm
Ribeye Tacos with Spicy Pineapple Salsa on 09.06.20 at 3:07 pm

Why have interest rates been declining for 30 years? Given debt has increased through that decline, why would any Central Bank want, or even be able to, raise interest rate any appreciable amount?

—————————————————–
Mortgages in Canada were 22% during my lifetime. – Garth
—————————————————————
And no, Mr.Turner did not use his credit card to finance his home…

#50 David Suzuki on 09.06.20 at 7:26 pm

#43 Nonplused on 09.06.20 at 7:01 pm
#33 Re-Cowtown on 09.06.20 at 5:36 pm

There should be a law against throwing provinces under the bus when you don’t have a certain number of MP’s in those provinces.
—————————————————————-
There should also be a law for throwing humanity under a bus…you know, this little threat to organized human life called global warming…

#51 AntMan on 09.06.20 at 7:28 pm

Ribeye Tacos with Spicy Pineapple Salsa on 09.06.20 at 3:07 pm

Why have interest rates been declining for 30 years? Given debt has increased through that decline, why would any Central Bank want, or even be able to, raise interest rate any appreciable amount?

—————————————————–

In fact, real rates have been declining for centuries:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018

Mortgages in Canada were 22% during my lifetime. – Garth
———————————————————–

Whilst not quite as venerable as our host, I am no callow youth. In the early eighties I borrowed as much as I could in student loans and used the money to buy Canada savings bonds at 19%. Two years later I graduated, cashed in the lot and was debt free (no interest on student loans until graduation). Ten years later my first mortgage was 9.7% – I thought the bank must have made an error giving credit at less than 10%. The rest is a return to the mean.

#52 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.06.20 at 7:30 pm

#46 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.06.20 at 7:17 pm
#40 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.06.20 at 6:11 pm
21 KNOW IT ALL on 09.06.20 at 4:05 pm
So why then don’t they have mandatory personal finance courses in grade school and high school?

Thats where this starts – I see this all the time. Guys and gals making 6 figures turning wrenches but never had to take one class in personal finance.
—————————————————————–

Well then how do you explain immigrants who came to this great land, without even a high school education, let alone high school finance courses, and went on to save and do well?

——-

You know what Al, after re-reading my post, I apologize for the little bit of name calling there. You mentioned you’ve been mortgage free for 30, so I believe you’re my senior.. and I apologize for being disrespectful.

My comment about immigration is correct though.

#53 Limerick Larry on 09.06.20 at 7:30 pm

#44 Beetman on 09.06.20 at 7:02 pm
If socks spends like the media is warning us about, there will be poverty coming that people can not even imagine. That will be the Justice for voting in that numb skull.
————————————————————–

There once was a man named socks,
Who some thought was a bit of a crock,
Deficit spending was his mantra,
So you could borrow for an Elantra,
While the country was deeply in hock.

#54 Don Guillermo on 09.06.20 at 7:43 pm

DELETED

#55 Mark the Carney, Carney on 09.06.20 at 7:45 pm

#42 Nonplused on 09.06.20 at 6:47 pm
#13 Drill Baby Drill on 09.06.20 at 3:19 pm
Don’t worry all of you millenial and woke Canadians. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is here to save us in Canada. Hey every other country is doing it so it must be ok.

————————-

Even with the sort of MMT hybrid they are using, inflation can only rise so far before they have to raise rates. In a true MMT environment they wouldn’t “borrow” money into existence, they would just print it, but in theory even that printing is limited by inflation. It goes beyond my understanding but I wonder if they can’t actually create more money by “borrowing” it into existence, because then it is backed by some sort of bond, whereas if they just printed it I think people would get sick of it pretty quickly. “Borrowed” money has to go home in the form of interest and principle eventually, whereas printed money becomes cumulative. It just stays “out there”.
—————————————————————-

Ever heard of open market operations? The government tells the BOC to buy its bonds. The BOC buys the bonds with a click of a mouse. The BOC now has an asset in the form of the government bonds it purchased and a liability in the form of the deposit the government has made at the BOC with its bonds. The government now has this deposit as an asset with the BOC and a liability in the fact it owes this money to the BOC. The best part? The BOC is owned by the government so it owes the money to itself! It is all explained here:

https://lop.parl.ca/sites/PublicWebsite/default/en_CA/ResearchPublications/201551E

#56 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.06.20 at 7:50 pm

52 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.06.20 at 7:30 pm
#46 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.06.20 at 7:17 pm
#40 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.06.20 at 6:11 pm
21 KNOW IT ALL on 09.06.20 at 4:05 pm
So why then don’t they have mandatory personal finance courses in grade school and high school?

Thats where this starts – I see this all the time. Guys and gals making 6 figures turning wrenches but never had to take one class in personal finance.
—————————————————————–

Well then how do you explain immigrants who came to this great land, without even a high school education, let alone high school finance courses, and went on to save and do well?

——-

You know what Al, after re-reading my post, I apologize for the little bit of name calling there. You mentioned you’ve been mortgage free for 30, so I believe you’re my senior.. and I apologize for being disrespectful.
————————————————————

You are forgiven! Your parents reared you well in having respect for your elders! I was brought up the same way. Nice to see that in the younger generation. You made some good points as well. Keep up the good work!

#57 Northshore guy on 09.06.20 at 7:52 pm

This country has made Alberta their whipping boy. It is an absolute disgrace. Willful destruction of a provinces economy. Kicking us when we are down. Dare to mention this and are accused of being a whiner. Sad day to be a Canadian. Thanks a heap Trudeau voters.
———————————————–
I lived in Alberta for 5 yrs. I was working 60hrs a week just to keep my job. Almost every other weekend I was working. If we didn’t we would lose our jobs. Many did.
I was living in Vancouver before and lost my mind and moved there for cheap real estate. But after 5 yrs of hardship I realized it just wasn’t worth it. Better to move back and get good income. Sure I can’t afford to buy a detached here but at least I don’t have to work overtime and jobs are much more secure.
If the system isn’t changing then best to get out of it. At least in Canada there are lots of opportunities.

#58 In Garth, Not God We Trust on 09.06.20 at 7:56 pm

#51 AntMan on 09.06.20 at 7:28 pm

Whilst not quite as venerable as our host…
—————————————————————

I should hope so! You are lucky you are not being zapped by a lightning bolt for such an audacious comparison! A bit more reverence per favor for the all knowing, all wise, mystic sage of Lunenberg. Sheesh!!

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.20 at 8:02 pm

@#53 Limerick larry
Ok I’ll bite.

“There once was a man named socks,
Who some thought was a bit of a crock,
Deficit spending was his mantra,
So you could borrow for an Elantra,
While the country was deeply in hock..

There once was a Leader named Justin.
The budget was rumoured to be bustin’.
A pandemic spread forth
From the South to the North.
Faster than the economy was in the dustbin.

#60 Mark the Carney, Carney on 09.06.20 at 8:04 pm

#48 George S on 09.06.20 at 7:19 pm

Like you I have seen 23.5% floating rate mortgages, and 17.5% per year 5 year term deposits. Our first house was bought with a 14% fixed rate private mortgage from a relative who gave us a good deal. Those rates came up suddenly as a way to try and control inflation. At that time wages were going up 10 to 12% every year. Prices were rising like crazy.
Without raising interest rates as an option, a government might be tempted to “let ‘er rip” and see what happens, an interesting experiment but probably disastrous to say the least.

————————————————————–

Are wages going up 10-12% a year now? Therein lies part of the inflation problem. Second question. Why has Japan printed more money than any other industrialized country in the past 30 years and is battling deflation and not inflation?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-abenomics-anaysis/japans-battle-with-pandemic-may-mark-end-of-abes-fiscal-experiment-idUSKCN21S0J8

#61 johnnywalker on 09.06.20 at 8:05 pm

Well Garth interest rates cant really go up again can they? Think about all the debt the governments just added..there is no way they can allow interest rates back up..even 3 percent would detonate everything. So we will be Japan for god knows how long..rates can always go lower..they are negative in some areas which everyone thought was impossible.
We can thank the central banksters for their brilliance in creating a monstrous bubble by printing ginormous amounts of money out of thin air and bailing out all the momo stock market geniuses out there. Everyone believes they are infallible..well this is the last time they can pull their parlor tricks..7 trillion and counting now for the Fed..dont think they can push that much higher.
I told you Garth a couple years ago that the system wouldnt be able to handle higher interest rates and you mocked me and others. Isnt it obvious now? How can interest rates go up..too much debt man..

#62 Don Guillermo on 09.06.20 at 8:08 pm

#54 Don Guillermo on 09.06.20 at 7:43 pm
DELETED

*************************************

Pretty much the same way CBC reported the video pre 2015 election

#63 n1tro on 09.06.20 at 8:17 pm

I feel like a chump. I pay my mortgage weekly.

#64 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.06.20 at 8:22 pm

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.20 at 2:54 pm
The Govt is between a rock ( recession) and a hard place ( low interest rates) with no where to go……

Almost worth it to see “Selfie” form the next govt and live with the disastrous economic results over the next 4 years while we all “go green” and rename all our Parks, Schools, Towns, Libraries to more acceptable, non binary, politically correct versions of their former selves.

History re-written as it were… because rewriting history and patting oneself on the back……. is vastly more important than ….the economy.
—————-
CEW,
It’s you yourself who’s guilty of re-writing history!
Didn’t you claim that JT is driving his father’s vintage Porsche convertible.
It turns out it is a Mercedes, as pointed by a blog dog well versed in Canadian history.
Remember, when in a glass house……….

#65 Limerick Larry on 09.06.20 at 8:28 pm

There was only one voice of reason,
In a land filled with political treason,
This lone voice he did warn,
Of the impending debt storm,
Even though is was not fashionable or in season.

#66 Yuus bin Haad on 09.06.20 at 8:33 pm

I told Eddie that there’s no cure and he said, “you mean there AIN’T no cure …”

#67 Mark the Carney, Carney on 09.06.20 at 8:34 pm

#61 johnnywalker on 09.06.20 at 8:05 pm

“I told you Garth a couple years ago that the system wouldnt be able to handle higher interest rates and you mocked me and others.”
—————————————————————-

First of all, the honourable Mr. Turner, does not mock anyone. Second, who said interest rates are going up? You raise interest rates when inflation is a problem not deflation. If you don’t want to be struck dead by a bolt of lightning, I suggest you apologize to the venerable host of this blog.

#68 Debtslavecreator on 09.06.20 at 8:35 pm

The bond market will force the rates up eventually
Credit risk is starting to rise
And that’s before the risk that China sells treasury bonds in the next 6 months as it’s been telegraphing and Trump could very well just cancel chinas T bonds

The RE market is a complete joke

In 12-18 months prices can easily drop 20-30%

Caveat emptor

#69 Limerick Larry on 09.06.20 at 8:36 pm

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.20 at 8:02 pm
@#53 Limerick larry
Ok I’ll bite.

“There once was a man named socks,
Who some thought was a bit of a crock,
Deficit spending was his mantra,
So you could borrow for an Elantra,
While the country was deeply in hock..

There once was a Leader named Justin.
The budget was rumoured to be bustin’.
A pandemic spread forth
From the South to the North.
Faster than the economy was in the dustbin
————————————————————–

Bravo Fartzy!! You are a natural!! Love it. Well done senor.

#70 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.06.20 at 8:37 pm

#55 Mark the Carney, Carney on 09.06.20 at 7:45 pm
#42 Nonplused on 09.06.20 at 6:47 pm
#13 Drill Baby Drill on 09.06.20 at 3:19 pm
Don’t worry all of you millenial and woke Canadians. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is here to save us in Canada. Hey every other country is doing it so it must be ok.

————————-

Even with the sort of MMT hybrid they are using, inflation can only rise so far before they have to raise rates. In a true MMT environment they wouldn’t “borrow” money into existence, they would just print it, but in theory even that printing is limited by inflation. It goes beyond my understanding but I wonder if they can’t actually create more money by “borrowing” it into existence, because then it is backed by some sort of bond, whereas if they just printed it I think people would get sick of it pretty quickly. “Borrowed” money has to go home in the form of interest and principle eventually, whereas printed money becomes cumulative. It just stays “out there”.
—————————————————————-

Ever heard of open market operations? The government tells the BOC to buy its bonds. The BOC buys the bonds with a click of a mouse. The BOC now has an asset in the form of the government bonds it purchased and a liability in the form of the deposit the government has made at the BOC with its bonds. The government now has this deposit as an asset with the BOC and a liability in the fact it owes this money to the BOC. The best part? The BOC is owned by the government so it owes the money to itself! It is all explained here:

https://lop.parl.ca/sites/PublicWebsite/default/en_CA/ResearchPublications/201551E
——————–
Thank you, Mr. Carney for straightening out Mr. Nonplused.
While you’re at it, could you also explain to him the difference between efficiency and effectiveness.
He just does not get it.

#71 Billy Buoy on 09.06.20 at 8:43 pm

D.L.M.

DEBTOR’S LIFES MATTER.

Coming soon to a area like yours.

#72 Goofy Gord on 09.06.20 at 8:45 pm

So if rates stay in the ditch with mortgages bottoming at these levels and the economy in a long recession why would prices rise from here? And when the next slowdown (or worse) materializes there will be no more narcotics to dole out. The debt, however, will remain.
Is this a solid personal strategy?
——————————————————————-
A. No it is not.
B. Yes it is a sound strategy.
C. This is a trick question.
D. I’ll let you know after I borrow $2 million at 1.5%

#73 Stoph on 09.06.20 at 8:51 pm

#21 KNOW IT ALL on 09.06.20 at 4:05 pm
So why then don’t they have mandatory personal finance courses in grade school and high school?

—————————————————————-

I’d say that the curriculum should include personal finance, investment basics, as well as negotiation skills as they are key to doing well financially.

#74 AB on 09.06.20 at 8:52 pm

#50 DS
Drop the ideology. Families losing their livelihoods are humanity.

#75 yvr_lurker on 09.06.20 at 9:02 pm

#46
And? What difference does it make?
———————-
Not much now. However, if the G7 does not learn critical lessons to greatly lessen the chance of it happening again (as it will if the live animal markets continue unhindered and unmonitored), then we are utter fools. Can’t have a world economy where one more OOPS, sends another ball of fire in the form of a pathogen spreading across the world shutting everything down and exposing all those who were highly leveraged and only thinking “locally” about their jobs and lives. Did families sit at the dinner table planning on what to do if a pandemic hits and their entire industries shut down? Don’t think so.

G7 needs to take a collective strong stance against China, and once this is all over we need to not forget the root causes of it and to “minimize” the risk of a repeat Covid25.

#76 AM in MN on 09.06.20 at 9:07 pm

#10 Ace Goodheart on 09.06.20 at 3:10 pm
I think we are headed into a big old nasty recession…

———————————————-

The points you make in your post are not necessarily wrong, but you do leave out some upsides.

Look at the price of lumber and exports. The industry can’t keep up with the export demand.

Canada has one of the most efficient construction industries in the world, and everyone in that business is booked out for the next year and can’t find enough workers.

When the borders re-open there will be a flood of money from outside again, mostly into the real estate markets. Canada is essentially selling its relatively stable political and legal system as a commodity.

I’m no lefty, but I try and be objective as to what value is gained by having a fairly well paid and non-bribe taking civil service and police/court system. Given how rare this is around the world, it has significant value to those who immigrate or invest. Thus it becomes a commodity which is sold for real money.

The BoC can (and will) print the money the libs want to spend. No one will go without and there is no political will for cutting off poor people.

This printed money is essentially a wealth tax on the asset base of the nation. It leads to a transfer of wealth from wage slaves to asset owners who know how to leverage the free loans. This eventually causes social unrest.

But, when the printed money is used to purchase govt. debt, and the funds are then transferred to individuals directly (CERB) or used for govt. services, it robs from the asset owners and transfers to the peasants.

This gig can go on for a long time, especially if everyone else is doing it.

Registered assets can also be taxed directly, so it is a fool’s paradise to think that the house you “own” isn’t a huge tax liability when the govt. needs it, like to make bond payments.

The state is not a private company, and the accounting rules of such don’t apply.

The problem will only come when the global markets don’t want to buy any more low interest debt, like in the ’90’s. The difference this time is that there’s a lot of money and people around the world that would come and bring money if the road is open. Remember, the top 1% of 7B people is still 70M people!

#77 zoey on 09.06.20 at 9:08 pm

The BoC is out of bullets now. They should of been raising rates for the last 5 years so they could drop them in a crisis to say 2.5-3% …oops. Now they may let inflation run without raising rates until when ? BoC are the main reason for the debt, their policy, they were the enabler. If zero rates don’t get things moving what else do they have ? Irresponsible at their finest.

#78 The Donald Fakaroo on 09.06.20 at 9:15 pm

The reference was to rate reductions, not asset purchases. It rates have scraped bottom, house prices have peaked. I am sure you can grasp that. – Garth

Don’t agree… if immigration is allowed to make up losses during the covid years, and rates remain low then demand for housing does not subside but continues… “Over 10,000 U.S. residents immigrated north in 2019 through Canada’s Express Entry visa system. This represents a huge increase from the 600 U.S. residents who immigrated through Express Entry in 2015.” and that’s just the States,,, other English speaking countries too want in… Canada remains the draw whether viewed thru economics, global warming, fresh water or whatever you can think of… Canadian RE is a good investment where GTA RE is a great investment. Buy your homes and stay long,, grow your families and stay strong… and should they rise by even just 5% a year, that is massive over time on your million $ investments…

Dream on. – Garth

#79 X on 09.06.20 at 9:33 pm

Not that I expect anything to occur. But I feel like some are unknowingly being led to slaughter. So many families are just scrapping by, I don’t know how some will shoulder higher rates.

On one hand businesses need these lower rates, on the other some individuals have signed up for a lifetime of debt.

#80 YouKnowWho - from PTO on 09.06.20 at 9:33 pm

Counted 78 vacant/for lease ground level locations on Queen West between University and Ossington only on a slow roll through.

Brutal.

Never seen that much empty retail level real estate. And soon the patios close.

Doesn’t have a good smell to it.

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.20 at 9:35 pm

@#64 Ponzie Preamble
“It turns out it is a Mercedes, as pointed by a blog dog well versed in Canadian history.”
++++

Ponzie ponzie ponzie.
Thou doth crow like rooster happily standing in its own dung.

If you check the comments I admitted my erroneous mistake.
I mistook daddy’s vintage Merecedes for a vintage porsche…. apparently I dont drive in those circles.

Once again. No surprise.
You’re sadly behind the times

#82 Billy Buoy on 09.06.20 at 9:41 pm

D.L.M.

Debtor’s Lives Matter.

Coming to your area soon.

#83 I believe everything on television on 09.06.20 at 9:42 pm

I started with shortage of toilet paper. (no shortage of Plexiglas) but it looks like it started in 2018 and will end in maybe four years

https://nationalfile.com/world-bank-document-lists-covid-19-program-ending-in-march-2025/

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.20 at 9:45 pm

Re Limerick Larry

Canada’s leader spends the Budget til bust.
While the economy begins to rust.
His dad’s Mercedes burns gas
Greta says she’s aghast.
The Greens demand he smashes it to dust.

This is getting painful. – Garth

#85 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.06.20 at 10:07 pm

#46 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.06.20 at 7:17 pm
——————————————————————–

You do realize I stated immigrants who came as in the remote past tense not the current immigrants who are obviously educated. I can assure you that the vast majority of immigrants who came after WW2, when my parents for instance came over, did not have a high school education. So my question still stands. How did they know how to manage their finances with so little education?

#86 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.20 at 10:22 pm

#56 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.06.20 at 7:50 pm
52 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.06.20 at 7:30 pm
#46 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.06.20 at 7:17 pm
#40 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.06.20 at 6:11 pm

—————
what the heck!?! c’mon guys this is the internet, rational, civil debate with an open mind, wtf is wrong with you guys?

garth can you crack down on this please.

#87 Oakville to Burlington on 09.06.20 at 10:36 pm

At $400 000 less than the original asking price in February 2020 the only FOMO I had was not get the 1.79% (free money) from the bank! Last house purchase was in 2008 when we were able to purchase a 2 year old home for less then the builder was charging. There were some great deals to be had during times of “crisis” if you know where to look and are will to take some risk and act fast !!

#88 Ace Goodheart on 09.06.20 at 11:03 pm

#76 AM in MN:

Softwood is a fool’s game.

Only green energy billionaires believe it actually just “grows back” (it doesn’t, left untouched it just becomes deforested desert). We can only cut down all the trees once, then if we plant them all back, in 40 years we will have more.

The USA loves slapping tariffs on Canadian soft wood. It’s a boom bust system.

Honest police and judicial system? Really? A country whose Prime Minister fires the attorney general so as to save the butt of a well connected company? A country where perjury is OK, as long as you have the power to prorouge parliament?

Justice is bought here, just like everywhere else.

Things are rotten, corrupt and crooked at the top. It only seems fine to those who are used to it.

Do you know why Canada was an attractive place for non residents to park money in real estate?

I do.

I spent years living in South East Asia. It is really hard to launder money there. The banks and the government are basically the same people.

Canada is viewed as a money laundering paradise. So many rules. Such bureaucracy. In China, what takes six months and multiple court dates to do in Canada, takes a phone call. Done the same day.

While our bureaucracy is spinning its wheels, the money has come and gone. All that is left is a big mortgage and someone’s kid who is enrolled at University, never goes to class and owns 20 multi million dollar properties with an income consisting of part time work at Starbucks.

Want to hide money from the North American tax man? Tax haven countries are your friend.

Want to launder some cash? Canada beckons.

No, I think we are done here. Big recession coming. Our corrupt little Petro state isn’t going to breeze through this one like it did in 2008.

The chickens have come home to roost.

#89 fishman on 09.06.20 at 11:35 pm

Lil potato has made his bed
MMT has taken over his head
He’ll only be brought to heel
When bond vigilantes make him squeal
Till then its full speed ahead

#90 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 09.06.20 at 11:43 pm

“The US election could end in a protracted crisis.” — Garth

If all the “Peaceful Riots,” “Peaceful Looting,” and “Peaceful Arson” continue in the USA, a Canadian hockey game could break out down there.

#91 Gulf Breeze on 09.07.20 at 2:27 am

There once was a blogger named Turner,
who wanted limericks on the back burner,
“Let’s stick to our knitting,
of subjects more fitting…
like the plight of the unemployed earner!”

#92 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.07.20 at 3:25 am

Candice Bergen is Erin O’Toole’s sidekick.
Lorens of Arabia and Murphy Brown could be the winning ticket.
But isn’t Erin a female name? Would be tuff to swallow for some hardcore con voters, would it not?
https://theprovince.com/opinion/kurl-lessons-for-erin-otoole-canadians-care-about-the-deficit-but-they-care-about-covid-impact-more/wcm/570fcbde-e0fb-4590-9235-7952e08cd4c3/

#93 Nonplused on 09.07.20 at 3:31 am

#50 David Suzuki on 09.06.20 at 7:26 pm
#43 Nonplused on 09.06.20 at 7:01 pm
#33 Re-Cowtown on 09.06.20 at 5:36 pm

There should be a law against throwing provinces under the bus when you don’t have a certain number of MP’s in those provinces.
—————————————————————-
There should also be a law for throwing humanity under a bus…you know, this little threat to organized human life called global warming…

———————————————

Well David Suzuki, I am opposed to people taking well known names as handles when they aren’t them. I am also not sure we know anymore about this “global warming” than we know about covid. Both could be a thing. But if the reaction to the short term covid is an indication of what the long term reaction to global warming is going to be then holy crap. Get used to “NWFH”.

#94 Nonplused on 09.07.20 at 3:43 am

#70 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.06.20 at 8:37 pm
#55 Mark the Carney, Carney on 09.06.20 at 7:45 pm
#42 Nonplused on 09.06.20 at 6:47 pm
#13 Drill Baby Drill on 09.06.20 at 3:19 pm

Thank you, Mr. Carney for straightening out Mr. Nonplused.
While you’re at it, could you also explain to him the difference between efficiency and effectiveness.
He just does not get it.

————————————-

Oh could you just give it up? Even Harley’s are more efficient now than they used to be, but they still can’t go faster than the speed limit without getting a ticket.

There is no such thing as “effectiveness” that does not involve “efficiency”. Just ask McDonald’s. Or Subway. Or Toyota. Or anybody that is selling something. The price must be as low as it can while everybody profits, or it won’t sell.

#95 Nonplused on 09.07.20 at 3:46 am

#76 AM in MN on 09.06.20 at 9:07 pm
#10 Ace Goodheart on 09.06.20 at 3:10 pm
I think we are headed into a big old nasty recession…

———————————————-

The points you make in your post are not necessarily wrong, but you do leave out some upsides.

Look at the price of lumber and exports. The industry can’t keep up with the export demand.

———————————-

Well, in the US every year they board up for hurricanes. that is not new. But this year they also have to board up everything.

#96 Under the radar on 09.07.20 at 6:07 am

My last weekend at the cottage in Innisfil after 21 years . Things sure have changed . Subdivisions everywhere, particle board 30 footers wedged into farmers fields in the middle of nothing . Cheap money fuelling it all . Lost souls tied to huge debt to for a patch of grass and a crappy old boat next to a neighbor who runs garage sales every weekend .

#97 NSNG on 09.07.20 at 6:18 am

But they all have government jobs! It is a known law of the universe that the government cannot layoff or fire people even if they go broke. And governments, especially below the federal level cannot go broke! These violate all physical laws.

#98 David Suzuki on 09.07.20 at 7:04 am

#93 Nonplused on 09.07.20 at 3:31 am

———————————————

… I am also not sure we know anymore about this “global warming” than we know about covid. Both could be a thing.
—————————————————————-
Not sure? Really? Guess you know more than 95% of active climate researchers who state that global warming if caused by human activity. You need to straighten these benighted scientists out.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus-intermediate.htm

#99 Limerick Larry on 09.07.20 at 7:07 am

#91 Gulf Breeze on 09.07.20 at 2:27 am
There once was a blogger named Turner,
who wanted limericks on the back burner,
“Let’s stick to our knitting,
of subjects more fitting…
like the plight of the unemployed earner!”
—————————————————————-

That is a funny limerick! Well done! All the closet limerickers have come out!

#100 Uncle Al Sinclair on 09.07.20 at 7:09 am

#90 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 09.06.20 at 11:43 pm
“The US election could end in a protracted crisis.” — Garth

If all the “Peaceful Riots,” “Peaceful Looting,” and “Peaceful Arson” continue in the USA, a Canadian hockey game could break out down there.
—————————————————————-

Nice variation of “I went to a boxing match and a hockey game broke out.” Very clever!

#101 Limerick Larry on 09.07.20 at 7:13 am

#89 fishman on 09.06.20 at 11:35 pm
Lil potato has made his bed
MMT has taken over his head
He’ll only be brought to heel
When bond vigilantes make him squeal
Till then its full speed ahead
_________________________________________

What a talented bunch of limerick writers we have! Well done! Btw, did you know that potato in Mandarin is pronounced Tudou? I am not kidding.

https://www.google.com/search?q=how+do+you+pronounce+potato+in+mandarin&rlz=1C1JZAP_enCA879CA879&oq=how+do+you+pronounce+potato+in+mandarin&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.10521j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

#102 Phylis on 09.07.20 at 7:17 am

#94 Nonplused on 09.07.20 at 3:43 am
#70 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.06.20 at 8:37 pm
#55 Mark the Carney, Carney on 09.06.20 at 7:45 pm
#42 Nonplused on 09.06.20 at 6:47 pm
#13 Drill Baby Drill on 09.06.20 at 3:19 pm

Thank you, Mr. Carney for straightening out Mr. Nonplused.
While you’re at it, could you also explain to him the difference between efficiency and effectiveness.
He just does not get it.

————————————-

Oh could you just give it up? Even Harley’s are more efficient now than they used to be, but they still can’t go faster than the speed limit without getting a ticket.

There is no such thing as “effectiveness” that does not involve “efficiency”. Just ask McDonald’s. Or Subway. Or Toyota. Or anybody that is selling something. The price must be as low as it can while everybody profits, or it won’t sell.
——————————-
Is the school open yet? Which is better the effective widget or the efficient widget?

#103 Nonno Nicola on 09.07.20 at 7:19 am

#88 Ace Goodheart on 09.06.20 at 11:03 pm

Canada is viewed as a money laundering paradise. So many rules. Such bureaucracy. In China, what takes six months and multiple court dates to do in Canada, takes a phone call. Done the same day.
————————————————————–
The above is not a reason Canada is viewed as good spot to launder money. In fact, Canada’s bureaucracy is minimal compared to many countries. I had a business buddy who was shocked that he could set up his company in Ontario in one day while it took 6 months to set up a company in Italy. One day/6 months. Doesn’t sound like a lot of bureaucracy to me.

#104 Joe on 09.07.20 at 7:51 am

Why would the rates bottom here? They can still go to -1%, then -2%, … They will only stop when people now voting for irresponsible politicians will start getting hurt by rising cost of living and pick up the pitchforks to protest against the policies they are supporting today. Some provinces may chose to go their own way by then and life in Canada may start feeling more like its. Venezuela.

Negative rates are not retail rates. You will never be paid to borrow money. – Garth

#105 Shawn on 09.07.20 at 7:54 am

The TSX has also declined more than 20% on 3 separate occasions since 2008. Not only have returns been very poor but volatility has been elevated.

There is absolutely no reason to buy this index.

Of course there is. As the global economy reopens and expands, commodity prices are likely to rise, making the TSX a good place to put some cash. Investing by looking in the rear-view mirror is an amateur mistake. – Garth

#106 Shawn on 09.07.20 at 7:56 am

The TSX is mostly littered with old economy businesses that don’t innovate, irritate their customers and/or pollute the environment.

This is a recipe for poorer returns going forward.

#107 Shawn on 09.07.20 at 8:18 am

EVERYONE is anticipating that commodity prices rise as the “economy reopens”. I think the outcome will be different. We’ll see. Buy the S&P500. That’s all you need. It’s the new economy global index. Adding the TSX, emerging markets and Europe is unnecessary deworsification. It will only hurt returns.

Stop giving investment advice. You’re obviously bad at it. Hopefully nobody pays you for this… – Garth

#108 Do we have all the facts on 09.07.20 at 8:38 am

Suppose you were offered the opportunity to purchase an asset that was “guaranteed” to appreciate by a minimum of 5% per year. You know like Bernie did!

Then suppose that this appreciating asset could be purchased for as little as 5% down and a loan for the balance at 1.5% per annum to be repaid over 25 years.

Then suppose that you could live in this appreciating asset and cover 100% of the total cost of debt service and operating costs with the gains realized from annual appreciation.

Sound too good to be true? Of course it does and yet tens of thousands of Canadians have bought one of these magical assets in the firm belief that appreciation will occur no matter how high the purchase price becomes. In fact many believe that the higher the purchase price the greater the amount of annual appreciation. Yikes!!

If the asset being offered for purchase was anything but a house most investors would look for evidence to support the claim of “Guaranteed” appreciation. In the case of housing however there is no need for hard evidence of future appreciation. One only has to look at what has happened in the past to feel confident about the future.

Talk about a true “Confidence” game that our supposedly rational governments started and now seem unable to stop. I think deep down inside most Canadians realize that the game of ‘musical chairs’ will eventually run out of ‘greater fools’ but the lure of easy money until the game finally ends is just too strong to resist.

Housing has become viewed as a lottery ticket where every ticket purchased with borrowed money is a sure winner. What is my house worth today? What can we buy with all that money we made?

If only reality was really that simple.

#109 Just Spend on 09.07.20 at 9:47 am

The government will be there to save you no matter what financial decisions you make. Spend whatever you want there are no negative consequences and it keeps the economy going!

#110 baloney Sandwitch on 09.07.20 at 9:56 am

Totally get your point about low interest rate and house prices. As interest falls all risky assets levitate (anti-gravity you know). Same is true for stocks as well. Especially growth stocks, like tech and FANGM’s. There is value in beaten down deep value equity. Strangely enough like beer stocks. I was buying BUD & TAP last week. In these trying time we need more beer, not more boat anchors.

#111 Dharma Bum on 09.07.20 at 10:00 am

#44 Beetman

That will be the Justice for voting in that numb skull.
——————————————————————–

Numbskull, eh?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yqJAAJ9yZQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Vm22iatO-I

Nyuk nyuk nyuk.

#112 Dharma Bum on 09.07.20 at 10:09 am

#106 Shawn

The TSX is mostly littered with old economy businesses that don’t innovate, irritate their customers and/or pollute the environment.
——————————————————————–

Those are the businesses that produce things, provide jobs, pay wages, and generally make the world go ’round.

You can’t WFH if you’re mining, building pipelines, assembling vehicles, drilling for oil, or providing power.

#113 Lefty on 09.07.20 at 10:13 am

#50 David Suzuki on 09.06.20 at 7:26 pm

There should also be a law for throwing humanity under a bus…you know, this little threat to organized human life called global warming…
————————————————

There should be a law against having 5 kids and at the same time claiming to care about global warming..

#114 Re elect no one on 09.07.20 at 10:30 am

Wanna bet beepers make a comeback?

These phones are sold out

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/PinePhone

#115 Cto on 09.07.20 at 10:45 am

in Canada
The government has gone all in on housing. Now it too big to fail. These policies have lasted for 20 years.
Nothing would surprise me now, the staeps that BOC and government would take to push more debt and housing.
It doesn’t matter to them if they tank the rest of the economy in the process. They have proven to the masses that it pays off in spades to take on large debt

#116 millmech on 09.07.20 at 10:46 am

#98 David Suzuki
How do you explain buying ocean front property on Quadra Island after preaching about rising ocean levels?

thtps://insideclimatenews.org/news/11092015/climate-change’s-worst-case-scenario-200-feet-sea-level-rise-antarctica-ice-sheet-melt

Your property, according to your ilk is going to be underwater and I am not speaking in financial terms. The only reason one so educated as yourself buys such a place is you want front row seats to the big show maybe?

I seldom here about these prophets making pontifications from the State of Colorado which would make sense to be there to avoid the oceanic apocalypse.
How does one even get insurance with the coming sea level surge, would this not make most of the coastal cities up to 200 feet above sea level uninsurable. The insurance companies have access to the same information as all these scientist and they are surely not writing policies on a losing bet.

#117 joblo on 09.07.20 at 10:51 am

Happy Labore day Chinadians!

#118 millmech on 09.07.20 at 11:10 am

Mr. Turner you are correct about the pandemic losing its potency now, soon social distancing will be a thing of the past. I eagerly await the science that they have used to come to these new standards to be presented for peer review.
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/keeping-1-metre-distance-acceptable-in-some-circumstances-dr-bonnie-henry-says-1.5091962

#119 MF on 09.07.20 at 11:11 am

WFH:

It’s guaranteed remote work will become more and more common. The idea that everyone will be back in the office 5 days a week like nothing happened is false. Expect a blend of at home and at the office, with more and more tilting towards at home as time goes on and technology improves. This pandemic proved productivity remains high (and is even elevated) with people happier at home.

“Some people – many of whom come to this blog to justify bad behaviour – think interest rates will never rise again. But if they don’t, when the next financial crapstorm hits, central bankers will be out of bullets. Any downturn would be deeper, longer and fatal for indebted homeowners.”

-They already seem out of bullets. That’s why it took 12 years for interest rates to rise 1% and one day for them to fall back to .25%. We also can’t forget the endless QE bond buying programs the artificially are manipulating prevailing interest rates downward.

What will happen when those two factors are removed? We saw that in late 2018, when bond buying programs began to wane, allowing prevailing interest rates to slowly rise to what they naturally would be (probably the normal 5% but deadly to the everything bubble I’d say). Both the stock market and real estate market began to wobble and couldn’t take it. It was so bad we had the president (some temporary elected politician) begging the Fed to reduce the overnight rate again, which the fed irresponsibly listened to.

This is why the FED came out and said they are going to allow inflation to run. That’s because they are terrified of rising rates again, and they have no other option but to try and stoke inflation to “inflate away” all the debt people have accumulated because of their own policies.

Will rates rise from this point. Yes. They have to maintain some “cushion”, or at least make it look they are. But they will do everything they can to suppress rates for as long as they can (until some other guy has to deal with the problem later on).

MF

#120 MF on 09.07.20 at 11:20 am

#103 Nonno Nicola on 09.07.20 at 7:19 am

Bingo. Ace is way off with this one. The “bloated bureaucracy” angle is just a false internet meme repackaged and presented as truth.

MF

#121 Sanga on 09.07.20 at 11:22 am

In Ottawa there has been a 20% increase in house prices over the last year. Mind boggling. I get that the price of resales are driven by supply snd demand, and of course the Realtors multiple offer shenanigans. What I don’t get is new home builders who must be making an absolute killing as they ride the price appreciation and fill their backlog for the next year to 18 months. Isn’t it in their best interest to keep the market pricing fair, and keeping their industry healthy for years to come? Don’t the see the downside over the longer term? I mean seriously, the cost to build a 1,300 square foot townhouse with carpet, is not more than $175k in Ottawa…yet they are selling them for close to $500k. The same places sold for $289k 18 months ago.

#122 Dr V on 09.07.20 at 11:26 am

88 Ace

“Only green energy billionaires believe it actually
just “grows back” (it doesn’t, left untouched it just becomes deforested desert). ”

——————————————————

Good morning Ace. I can assure you, on central VI, left untouched after harvesting, it grows back.

#123 Joe on 09.07.20 at 12:15 pm

Negative rates will never be available to retail? What if the banks don’t need to hold to the mortgage? What if they create a negative rate mortgage, securitize it and then turn around and sell to the government for a profit?

#124 Don Guillermo on 09.07.20 at 12:24 pm

#113 Lefty on 09.07.20 at 10:13 am
#50 David Suzuki on 09.06.20 at 7:26 pm

There should also be a law for throwing humanity under a bus…you know, this little threat to organized human life called global warming…
————————————————

There should be a law against having 5 kids and at the same time claiming to care about global warming.

*************************************

And the multiple properties that he owns. At one time it was said to have been 5 including a beach front on Quadra Island and something else in Australian. Maybe he planted a few trees as offsets. I briefly met one his 5 children once who lived in Dawson City. Seemed like a decent guy. Most of those northern communities are powered by diesel but not sure about Dawson. It’d be tough staying warm up there using wind and solar.

Interesting article when David S told Vivian Krause to eff off multiple times when she was looking for an interview.

https://fairquestions.typepad.com/rethink_campaigns/my-unexpected-encounter-with-david-suzuki-1.html

#125 Dr V on 09.07.20 at 12:27 pm

103 nonno 120 MF

It’s a big jump from creating a “company” to actually having it do something.

I work with bureaucracy every day. In many ways I am
actually part of it. Costs to my clients have doubled or tripled in the last decade or so, not because I make that much more, but because the hours required for the work has increased so much due to the various rules and regs.

Not saying the rules or regs are necessarily bad, it’s just that in many cases they are overblown.

Every time the government or pseudo-govt makes a rule, or invokes a policy, they have to hire people to
administer it. These people hate it when I try to
streamline anything by eliminating the BS or offer an alternative solution that addresses an issue.

#126 mnpr on 09.07.20 at 12:33 pm

“Some people – many of whom come to this blog to justify bad behaviour – think interest rates will never rise again. But if they don’t, when the next financial crapstorm hits, central bankers will be out of bullets. Any downturn would be deeper, longer and fatal for indebted homeowners.”

This (the continuously increasing levels of private and public debt) has all gone on for too long. Chicken Littles (of which I have been one) have been calling for an end to the insanity, for a very difficult period of reckoning, of major debt reduction and of getting things back closer to an even keel, for it seems forever now. I am rapidly losing faith in what I thought was my fair understanding of how our economic system works. I just don’t know anymore. As for Central Banker “bullets”, sure, reducing interest rates is no longer available while they are rock-bottom… but isn’t just printing money another available bullet that can be used instead? Prevent bankruptcies and insolvencies my mailing out free cash to keep the party going? Regardless of adverse consequences such as inflation or currency debasement? I have become so disillusioned at the lack of self-control of too many people and am quite worried about what lays ahead.

#127 Looking up on 09.07.20 at 12:48 pm

115 Cto on 09.07.20 at 10:45 am
in Canada
The government has gone all in on housing. Now it too big to fail. These policies have lasted for 20 years.
Nothing would surprise me now, the staeps that BOC and government would take to push more debt and housing.
It doesn’t matter to them if they tank the rest of the economy in the process. They have proven to the masses that it pays off in spades to take on large debt

——————-

Almost always unrealistic housing prices will indeed tank the economy ie people pay too much for housing then can’t go to movies, restaurants, cut back on retail goods etc. Eventually then housing corrects as well.

Interestingly enough REIT’s continue to be depressed but REITs typically don’t contain a lot of single detached, semis, townhomes. The only sector of real estate that exhibiting this insane behaviour is Residential which makes no sense fundamentally.

So this is either unbridled speculation in the residential market or “this time it’s different.”

#128 David Suzuki on 09.07.20 at 12:49 pm

#116 millmech on 09.07.20 at 10:46 am

How does one even get insurance with the coming sea level surge, would this not make most of the coastal cities up to 200 feet above sea level uninsurable. The insurance companies have access to the same information as all these scientist and they are surely not writing policies on a losing bet.
—————————————————————-

Flooding is an Act of God and not covered by insurance. Who is making the losing bet now?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/act-god.asp

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.20 at 12:53 pm

@#125 Dr. V
“Costs to my clients have doubled or tripled in the last decade or so, not because I make that much more, but because the hours required for the work has increased so much due to the various rules and regs.”

++++

Thats a Bingo!

I regularly quote on jobs that are for the govt or the private sector.
I know the govt jobs will require endless reams of pointless paperwork as opposed to the private sector jobs that require a simple phone call.

So I typically charge 30% to 50% more to do a govt job.
I have dubbed it the “Stupid Tax” because invariably the govt people I am forced to lead by the hand and explain every stage of the job that they have hired me for are too stupid to realize how stupid they actually are.

If the govt really wanted to save some money they could eradicate 50-75% of their staffers and no one….
no…..one …………would notice.

#130 TurnerNation on 09.07.20 at 1:25 pm

The goal of 2020 is CHAOS. Everything must change in the New System. Renters and mortgagees cease their payments. Private property right to be ended: Landlords own taxes and squatters, Air B&Bers decimated.
Yet free UN government money – and financing – for all.

FM radio blares regular ads for “practicing Distancing”. This is the new Global Religion along with its sanitizing protocols. Every 20 minutes ya filthy animal.
“Distancing” they are not letting up on into 2021. We must be kept apart (but together) while the new green deal is dropped later this year. Especially with school children, softening them up for the Marxist programming; No extra cirricular events for them; that was old-system stuff comrade.
Distancing is the ultimate social and economic weapon; 2nd Wave of bankruptcies coming. For years on here I said “First world countries get economically bom’d; 2nd and 3rd world ones get real b0mbs”.
Why’s I say that so often, I never expected it this fast?

No longer may you attend a fall fair, an opera or theatre; or even a sports game. Just work this Labour day, Comrade. The old way of decadence, ended.
What about the land? Underneath all those places of fun. Soon to be condos? The goal of war, and of this WW3, is land.
They even kicked the Blue Jays out of the country. I don’t bey Skydome will reopen. As mentioned the land directly in front of it already is slated for the massive towers.

ALL media has been turned against us. I heard to assume every ‘story’ of 2020 is fake. Why not, makes more sense.

#131 TurnerNation on 09.07.20 at 1:34 pm

This economic war is for the LAND. Countless places including live music and culturally iconic places already are gone, 6 months into WW3. The Orbit room (Founded by a Rush band member). Crocodile Rock. So many places.
The old culture must come down.

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2020/09/sneaky-dees-closing-condo/

“The iconic Sneaky Dee’s could be no more as a new condo development proposal was submitted to the city on Friday.”

#132 MF on 09.07.20 at 1:43 pm

#125 Dr V on 09.07.20 at 12:27 pm

“ Not saying the rules or regs are necessarily bad, it’s just that in many cases they are overblown”

This is your key point. History has shown unfettered industry becomes ripe for corruption and exploitation. The regulations are needed.

Here in Canada, luckily, everyone more or less agrees on the need for regulation. We simply disagree slightly on the absolute amount needed. Complaining that everything is overblown “bureaucracy” is hyperbole, especially if you compare ourselves with other countries, which is the point the other poster made.

crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.20 at 12

Personal Anecdote as usual.

MF

#133 Gravy Train on 09.07.20 at 1:46 pm

#102 Phylis on 09.07.20 at 7:17 am
“Is the school open yet? Which is better: the effective widget or the efficient widget?” Phylis, you are proof positive that I made the right decision not to become a teacher! :P

#134 TurnerNation on 09.07.20 at 1:47 pm

More on the Tent cities strategically placed all over Toronto parks, just like that.
May 31st I wrote the below post. Why was a downtown hotel with a lit ‘parking full sign’ then, when the city was shut-down? I called shennanigans.
From another site I saw that the media/entertainment site that rhymes with Pebble, posted something. (They are the WWE of websites, somehow their reporters always get into grappling matches).
Nevertheless in July they claimed the tent-protestors at City hall went home to lux hotels, like this one across the road. We are being played on so many levels:

“#11 TurnerNation on 05.31.20 at 1:39 pm
A curious thing in Toronto last night.
Pretty sure I saw Sheraton Hotel with a Parking Lot Full sign lit up.
How could this be. Toronto is shut down. No open restaurant. No inside events. No tourists.
Streets are deserted at night.
Who could these parkers be? The streets were full in the daytime with [email protected] protesters which appeared out of nowhere. Were they bussed and driven in for this spectacle, organized agitators?
Blog dogs keep an eye on Toronto downtown hotels and parking lots.”

#135 willworkforpickles on 09.07.20 at 2:03 pm

#119 MF
Those renewing their mortgages in the next couple of years, those looking to buy and those who’ve just bought want none of what you are are saying. Many dismiss any possibility of a rate increase and eagerly believe any word from any source negating one.
Any source will do as long as its what they want to hear. …No Interest Rate Increase…they could hear it from a stranger who just heard it from the squeegee kid who just washed his windshield and its all good. Selective reasoning which is no reasoning at all to believe only what they want to believe is ruling their thinking.
But it won’t change reality as you, myself and others have pointed out.
Mortgage rate forecasts are still only educated guesses and at best…they are as accurate as a weather forecast. The further into the future a prediction, the less precise it is.
Believing a long term forecast from the Fed or BoC as a main source of information lacks good sense.
Forces beyond their control that gather like a brewing storm make it so with any projection beyond any given quarter to the next.
The unlikelihood of a rate increase in 2021 is the unlikelihood with the storms that are brewing.

#136 Re-Cowtown on 09.07.20 at 2:34 pm

#50 David Suzuki on 09.06.20 at 7:26 pm
#43 Nonplused on 09.06.20 at 7:01 pm
#33 Re-Cowtown on 09.06.20 at 5:36 pm

There should be a law against throwing provinces under the bus when you don’t have a certain number of MP’s in those provinces.
—————————————————————-
There should also be a law for throwing humanity under a bus…you know, this little threat to organized human life called global warming…
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The Global Warming issue is so complicated that it is impossible for anyone, layman or scientist alike, to have a cogent grasp of the science or it’s social implications. All we can try to do is look at costs vs. benefits.

And looking at only the eco-cost of a course of action is a narrow and child’s view of the universe. The adult view looks at the benefits as well.

Please think about that the next time you take your plastic kayak out for a paddle. Oil and gas provides an abundance of taken-for-granted and unacknowledged wealth of health benefits and healthy options to our society as well. You’re Welcome!

#137 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 09.07.20 at 2:36 pm

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.20 at 12:53 pm

Thats a Bingo!

I regularly quote on jobs that are for the govt or the private sector.
I know the govt jobs will require endless reams of pointless paperwork as opposed to the private sector jobs that require a simple phone call.

So I typically charge 30% to 50% more to do a govt job.
I have dubbed it the “Stupid Tax” because invariably the govt people I am forced to lead by the hand and explain every stage of the job that they have hired me for are too stupid to realize how stupid they actually are.

If the govt really wanted to save some money they could eradicate 50-75% of their staffers and no one….
no…..one …………would notice.

////////

Hahahaha! Oblivious guy, who complains incessantly that government pays too much for everything, goes blathering on about how he always charges more for government contracts because ‘ideology’.

#138 Re-Cowtown on 09.07.20 at 2:39 pm

#50 David Suzuki on 09.06.20 at 7:26 pm
#43 Nonplused on 09.06.20 at 7:01 pm
#33 Re-Cowtown on 09.06.20 at 5:36 pm

There should be a law against throwing provinces under the bus when you don’t have a certain number of MP’s in those provinces.
—————————————————————-
There should also be a law for throwing humanity under a bus…you know, this little threat to organized human life called global warming…
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The Global Warming issue is so complicated that it is impossible for anyone, layman or scientist alike, to have a cogent grasp of the science or it’s social implications. All we can try to do is look at costs vs. benefits.

And looking at only the eco-cost of a course of action is the narrowest and most child-like view possible as it ignores any and all benefits. The adult view incorporates looking not only at costs, but benefits as well.

Please think about that the next time you take your plastic kayak out for a paddle. Oil and gas provides an abundance of taken-for-granted and unacknowledged wealth of health benefits and healthy options to our society as well. You’re Welcome!

#139 Dr V on 09.07.20 at 3:09 pm

132 MF – from the various projects I work on, I estimate that the applications submitted are 80-90% “correct” and from a purely technical and regulatory standpoint are 100% correct as neither myself or the consultants I work with will provide false information.

Where the process beaks down are the minor subjective issues which could proceed in numerous different ways and may be a bit of a crap shoot as not all future conditions can be predicted or controlled. Even then, some additional study can provide more certainty, leaving only a tiny fraction of the issues unresolved. This “small stuff” can require as much work as the first 98% leading to significant cost overruns and unnecessary delays while oft times providing no end benefit.

#140 Gulf Breeze on 09.07.20 at 3:11 pm

I looked at a global environmental equity fund last month, saw it had done well in the last year and put 1/3 of my cash into it. This was after reading about a year ago that CPP was investing in solar, wind, etc…

I expect that Alberta will be a focal point for these industries.

#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.20 at 3:15 pm

@MF and Masks

“Personal Anecdote as usual”

+++
Yep.
The real world.
Until you actually have a business where you either make a profit or…… go bankrupt …..you have only theories and zippy one liners to regurgitate from a Professor’s class.

Either way. It doesnt amount to a hill of beans.
I am forced to charge more for govt contracts because they require more of my time than an identical job in the private sector.
Sloth, stupidity and zero accountability for going over budget seem to be the key reason 99% of govt run contracts fail to come in “on time” and “on budget”.
The Pipeline expansion, the Site C Dam, Bridges, Highways, Rapid Transit…….on and on and on the incompetence goes…..and no one is fired…… no they usually pat themselves on the back and get promoted for doing something that would get them fired in the private sector.
Not my fault I have to cover my ass three ways to Sunday on a govt contract.
I blame it entirely on govt waste and inefficiency.
Enjoy paying higher taxes under the Trudeau regime.
Because I will enjoy making profits.

:)

#142 Dr V on 09.07.20 at 3:39 pm

129 Fartz

“I have dubbed it the “Stupid Tax” because invariably the govt people I am forced to lead by the hand and explain every stage of the job that they have hired me for are too stupid to realize how stupid they actually are.”
————————————————————

The great irony for me Fartz is who do you think these people call when they have a “problem” they cant find a solution to?

#143 Capt. Serious on 09.07.20 at 3:57 pm

This is why the FED came out and said they are going to allow inflation to run. That’s because they are terrified of rising rates again, and they have no other option but to try and stoke inflation to “inflate away” all the debt people have accumulated because of their own policies.

I tend to agree with this. I think they’re going to allow inflation to run a bit in the hopes inflated incomes (both at the national level and personal level) can manage the debt load. They’ll slowly creep up the central bank rate for the next crisis, but they’ll be very cautious raising rates.

#144 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 09.07.20 at 3:59 pm

#116 millmech on 09.07.20 at 10:46 am

How does one even get insurance with the coming sea level surge, would this not make most of the coastal cities up to 200 feet above sea level uninsurable. The insurance companies have access to the same information as all these scientist and they are surely not writing policies on a losing bet.
—————————————————————-

Flooding is an Act of God and not covered by insurance. Who is making the losing bet now?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/act-god.asp

—————————————————————

I lived in Richmond BC when the Kyoto Accord was signed.
It declared Richmond and areas like it would be completly underwater by the year 2013.
Everyone was very scared. The parents of multiple friends of mine panicked and sold their homes and fled for higher ground.
The sea level hasn’t gone up a single millimetre in Richmond since the Kyoto Accord was signed.

Yes the insurance companies do have access to all the data the scientists are spewing out but they are not stupid. They know most of it is overblown BS designed to satisfy a narrative (humans bad) and, most importantly, secure grant money.

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.20 at 4:11 pm

@#142 Dr. V
“who do you think these people call when they have a “problem” they cant find a solution to?”
+++

Yep.
Manys a time I have had senior staff call me to ask questions regarding the simplest of tasks and how they should proceed.
One was a P.Eng. and asked if we could do a six day job in two days……( I think he thought if we put three times more people on the task it would get done in a third of the time…my cost….of course.)
“Errrrr, not unless I suspend the Laws of Physics”.

Or the manager that called and said, ” Your quote is too high you have to lower it”
“No, my quote is my quote and you dont have to accept it. You can go to our competition.”
To which he replied, “No one else quoted………”

Gee, I guess it isnt just me that realizes govt contracts are a pain in the arse even when you’re making money all the way to the bank…………..

#146 maxx on 09.07.20 at 4:17 pm

@ #40

School of life…because many immigrants are accustomed to having to making ends meet and know the value of money. They know what it means to be without and how to stretch it as required. Anything left over is respected and often gets saved or invested.

They despise debt.

New Canadians, for the most part, are far more savvy than second gen, etc. are with money.

We need to get that perspective back. Schools are not to be wholly responsible – parents play the pivotal role.

#147 gc on 09.07.20 at 6:22 pm

With all the money governments have spent, it’s not in their best interest for rates to rise.
Or then a bigger portion of the budget would go to debt servicing.
I would think central banks would engage in further yield curve control if the market pushed for higher rates.