Bears

“We’re scared,” Terry told me yesterday.  “Yeah, I know it’s emotional, but it’s real. Whaddya think we should do?”

The Toronto entertainment exec called me to share his family’s angst over the most tragic thing any household could ever consider. Leaving Toronto. Seriously. It’s tearing them up. Of course (like everything else) this is Covid-related. The bug hit, sent Terry and Jane into remote-working mode, shuttered the schools their three kids were attending and, incredibly, set the value of their mid-town house on fire.

Here’s the debate: should they sell, move down the 401 to London and start a new life on more secure footing, distant from the megalopolis?

Cough it up, I said. Tell me everything. Then you get an opinion.

So they’re mid-forties, three pre-teenagers with a family income just south of $160,000. No pensions, save the usual crappy insurance-company mutual fund-laden group RRSP. No non-registered account. And about four hundred thousand in bank mutuals across tax-free accounts, RRSPs and an RESP for the spawn. Monthly savings (with three expensive children) is zero. When the last one is finishing up uni, Terry and Jane will be wanting to retire. Income then will be inadequate, without selling the house.

That property, by the way, is now worth about $2 million, or double the value of a decade ago – and has raced higher over the last two months as the Virus Boom hit Toronto. Fueled by cheap money, pent-up demand and panic buying of detached homes that people can turn into germ-free bunkers, sales have exploded 40% with prices up by a fifth and the average detached now fetching $1.2 million.

Plan A, then, is do nothing. Be frugal. Pray the kids go to university via the subway, not in another province. Stay employed. Hope like hell the property market holds on to its value even when the FOMO ends, mortgage rates advance and economic reality sets in.

Plan B is London. That city (pop 450,000) is a mini-version of Toronto, but without gridlock, 75-storey condo towers, Drake or a silly basketball team. The average house costs less than $500,000, even after a 17% year/year price surge. I told Terry I’d lived there a couple of times, both instances in the historic, leafy north end which smells a lot like Rosedale or Shaughnessy. Houses that cost $3 million in mid-town Toronto go for about seven large.

The advice? Simple. No brainer.

Sell in TO for two mill. Buy for seven. Invest one point three in a balanced, diversified, well-managed portfolio earning six or seven percent over the next decade and end up by age 60 with at least three million. That should throw off close to $200,000 in annual income for Terry and his squeeze for the rest of their lives, while they live in a paid-off home and have several million dollars of liquid assets.

What possible reason can you dream up for not doing this? I asked.

His best two were: (a) it’s very scary leaving Toronto (there could be bears in London) and (b) my 13-year-old daughter will miss her friends.

After I recovered, we reviewed things.

Of course, staying put – taking no risk on the unknown – likely constitutes the greatest risk. Job loss (in a volatile industry) would be catastrophic for a family of five. It’d likely necessitate a house sale, hopefully when the market is still robust. A second wave and lockdown would change everything, trapping their equity and capping choices. Terry and Jane don’t have enough saved for retirement, lack good pensions and have big financial demands coming. Why not grab windfall capital gains now and put the money to work? Will their $2 million beater house become a $4 million mcmansion in another decade? Will middle-class incomes double or triple by then to support that price? Can mortgages get any cheaper? Or is this, logically, the apex? If so, why not grab on?

The trade: one inflated house in a big city for a better house in a smaller place, plus income and financial security for life. Duh. How is it even debatable?

But could the stock market plop over time along with residential real estate? Sure, although there’s never been a ten-year period since WW2 in which markets finished lower after a decade. Besides, a B&D portfolio contains no individual stocks, has global exposure, at least 40% safe assets, generates income whether equities rise or fall and – unlike a house – doesn’t have everything concentrated in one asset on one street in one city.

“Don’t be such a wuss,” I gently and compassionately counseled. “And tell your spoiled kid to get over it. Sheesh.”

He hung up. I may have to work on my technique.

164 comments ↓

#1 KNOW IT ALL on 09.03.20 at 3:39 pm

And the market slaughter begins……..

you were warned!!

Up 60% and down 4%, and you call it a slaughter? Glad you’re not an advisor. – Garth

#2 Sean J Ryan on 09.03.20 at 3:40 pm

One can’t help watch in wonder as the market has a significant increase one for for no apparent reason, and then an even more significant drop the next day for no apparent reason. What changed from yesterday to today? Is the smart money profit taking, and the sheep following along?

#3 Dustin on 09.03.20 at 3:41 pm

Who the hell hangs up on someone giving advice, jeez. Your technique is fine, look at all the people reading this blog.

#4 PBrasseur on 09.03.20 at 3:46 pm

S&P down 4%, seems like “M Market” finally realized the democrats are probably going to take over…

#5 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 09.03.20 at 3:47 pm

SOMETHING tells me a whole lotta equity imvestors are in for some pain.

GREED makes a fool out of the best of them.

#6 Looking up on 09.03.20 at 3:47 pm

For the love of God Garth, Stop making your blogs so funny.

I’m supposed to be working in my business and when I burst out laughing my partner (who happens to be my wife) gets suspicious that I may not actually be doing work.

#7 willworkforpickles on 09.03.20 at 3:48 pm

Many in the slowly shrinking pool of able home buyers have reasoned…They will not face another upcoming lockdown in their old places that were too small to share 24/7 with the rest of the family during the first wave.
A second go around is out of the question.
It’s really been a driving force with low interest rates acting as the clincher for the purchase and move to larger residences more conducive to living together round the clock the past couple of months.
Optimally speaking, the upwardly mobile conduct undertakings as large as this in warm weather months.
By mid September early October with cool weather setting in… (in South Central Ontario for instance) the buying and moving has or should slow down with the kids getting back to school…that is, and before the next outbreak and subsequent lockdown presumably comes.
With deferrals being phased out together with the uncertainty of looming economic and societal upheaval , Real Estate is edging into some powerful headwinds. Indebtedness and joblessness are at never before seen combined levels. Reality will take hold at some point.
It’s been said frantic frenzied buying and price explosion will come to an end, that it is unsustainable anyway… We’ll be coming to a crossroads.
That crossroads and change of direction is just up ahead.
The change of direction could be a switch from the mild fear level of FOMO (fear of missing out) as what’s been going on with recent buyers – to the extreme fear level of FOLE (fear of losing everything) that may come about for many with deferrals ending leaving them no choice but to sink or swim .
Such transitions in the past have led to fear/panic selling with no guarantees of getting out but with a great deal less than what’s owed… A perilous rocky road of tears to bankruptcy.

#8 Niagara Region on 09.03.20 at 3:50 pm

Re: kids taking the subway to university. I’ve read extensively on this topic: most Canadian undergraduates attend local universities, irrespective of the universities’ reputations. 66% of Canadian undergraduates under age 24 live with their parents. Exceptions: (1) those who live in remote areas, although their children usually then attend community colleges; and (2) affluent students whose parents can afford to send them to the most prestigious Canadian universities (e.g., McGill and Queens), to Oxbridge, or to the top-tier universities and colleges in the US. My overall point: unless living in a remote area, most Canadian parents do not have to worry about saving up for living expenses for their children to attend university. Tuition, however, is another matter: tuition has been steadily increasing as governmental funding for universities (especially in Ontario) has been steadily shrinking. [Ontario universities receive the lowest amount of governmental funding per capita of all the provinces and all the US states, with only one exception.]

#9 NoOneOfConsequence on 09.03.20 at 3:55 pm

You paint a very attractive picture to me!! I would love to be in a similar position, and take such sage advice!

#10 Linda on 09.03.20 at 3:56 pm

Holy doodle. Sell & run, Terry. Not to discount the importance of friends, but in a world where instant communication reigns (complete with face time) it isn’t like one can’t stay in touch.

Meanwhile you get to reap gains, potentially upgrade your living quarters/surroundings, have the opportunity to secure your financial future & ensure you never need rely on a diet of cat food & Kraft dinner because your pension income is the diddly of squat. You’ve won the lottery. Now go cash in that ticket before it expires.

#11 Cristian on 09.03.20 at 3:58 pm

“my 13-year-old daughter will miss her friends.”

That’s one of the worst things a parent can do for their child, especially in our days and time: not teach them the value of mobility, flexibility, adaptability, teach them to be able to make friends anywhere in the world and not get stuck to one place because that’s where they were born or grew up or their friends or family are.
And that’s also one of the reasons we’ll leave Canada and move to Europe, for them to see that there’s a lot more to this world than what they now know.

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.20 at 3:59 pm

Well, if Terry reads this blog…..

Sell.
Get out of TO.
Move to London.
Live large.
Your kids will find new friends.
No brainer.

#13 rah rah on 09.03.20 at 4:00 pm

Thanks Garth, I love to read at lunch and leave the computer with a chuckle.

#14 Dwight Botnen on 09.03.20 at 4:04 pm

Simple. Sell and get out of Toronto and Ontario and move to Victoria. Much better climate, much more affordable, much better universities and much less crowded and way more beautiful on the west coast. It’s a no brainer.

#15 CALEDONDAVE on 09.03.20 at 4:06 pm

Nah…you have to be a firm fatherly figure for them. You got right approach.

#16 Classical Liberal Millennial on 09.03.20 at 4:07 pm

Sounds like a lottery win. Getting out of Toronto is an added bonus. Cmon man. Sell! London is nice.

#17 45north on 09.03.20 at 4:08 pm

Of course, staying put – taking no risk on the unknown – likely constitutes the greatest risk. Job loss (in a volatile industry) would be catastrophic for a family of five. It’d likely necessitate a house sale, hopefully when the market is still robust.

that’s the key phrase “Job loss in a volatile industry”. Jerry has got to know that better than anyone. He also knows that he can get $2 million for his house. Today.

#18 The Woosh on 09.03.20 at 4:09 pm

I’m going to guess he stays in Toronto ‘cause, you know, those Londonian Bears. I hear they’re vicious!!! LMAO. Plus, they’d have to pay for all that bear repellent! Must be costly.

#19 Attrition on 09.03.20 at 4:09 pm

One factor possibly overlooked: the difference in the future value of both houses.

In twenty years, what’s the difference in property appreciation expected to be?

Likely, the gains and % gains will be higher on the Toronto dump.

It’s the same everywhere. I sold a rural acreage 10 years ago and bought in town. Today, the place in town is apprised for almost as much as the acreage despite costing half as much to purchase.

Think before you run, I’d say.

#20 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 09.03.20 at 4:10 pm

Terry and Jane, don’t listen to Garth, just….

STAY IN TORONTHOLE!!!

WITHIN 150 YEARS THE MAKE BELIEVES MIGHT MAKE THE SEMI-FINALS!!! JUST THINK OF THE PARTIES!!!

And if you need cash soon, just triple down on life insurance – the ONLY investment Toronturds need!

“In past week, more than 20 shootings in Toronto – CTV News”

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1748983

Just walk outside more, go to the bank and the bakery more often, AT LEAST ONE OF YOU WILL GET MURDERED VERY SOON – THINK OF THE MOOLAH!!!!

You can leave behind MILLIONS for your kids!

SLANTY SEMIS AND MAKE BELIEVE SEASON TICKETS FOREVER!!!

WINNING!

#21 Shirl Clarts on 09.03.20 at 4:13 pm

I agree they should sell.

But they won’t end up with 1.3 Million transferred to investments. What about the transaction costs of buying a new home, selling the current one? There goes at least 100K. Bye, money.

And don’t they have a mortgage to cancel out, or port? Or was the house inherited? No way they don’t have a mortgage with 3 kids in their mid forties, I don’t care what income they have.

No mortgage. Owned 15 years. – Garth

#22 Penny Henny on 09.03.20 at 4:22 pm

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#23 Jeff on 09.03.20 at 4:22 pm

$160,000 a year but they save nothing? Why? Three teenagers? Is that supposed to be the reason? Why would three teens be so expensive?

How much is left on their mortgage?

$400,000 across TFSA, RRSP, and RESP? If getting 6 or 7% is standard can’t they just let it ride and end up with $1.6 million in twenty years? (Assuming no new contributions)

Lots of problems for people with no problems. Lol.

#24 Mr Happy on 09.03.20 at 4:22 pm

Can’t fix stupid Garth, I went with a Plan B back in 2016 and never looked back. Comfortably retired now until not hit the 60 year old mark yet. Man, that is a no brainer…..

#25 the Jaguar on 09.03.20 at 4:25 pm

RE: ‘The trade: one inflated house in a big city for a better house in a smaller place, plus income and financial security for life. Duh. How is it even debatable?’

Well said. Or as I often say to my friends when an opportunity that seems too good to be true lands on their plate..”Start the car…”.
(courtesy IKEA).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcG3x-ohuYI

London as a relocation destination gets a more lukewarm response. Must be other more desirable locales.. Kitchener/Waterloo? My Ontario geography fails me after so many years away, but there must be other character towns.
The 13 year old daughter can make new friends and should be encouraged to do so. I am tempted to develop this issue, but based on the ‘return to school’ exchanges on yesterdays post will just zip my lips.

What a handsome boy in today’s blog photo. A beautiful orange fur coat that shows pride of ownership.

#26 Abolitionist on 09.03.20 at 4:28 pm

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#27 Brian Ripley on 09.03.20 at 4:28 pm

My Toronto Housing Chart is up with the August data:
http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html

In August 2020 Toronto total residential housing sales after zooming M/M in July are now only 15% below the June 2016 high. The higher highs and lower lows could be a serious mixed message moving into 4Q 2020.

​Residential inventory moved up to 27% below the May 2013 high and produced a 65% absorption rate as buyers continued pushing Detached prices up towards the 2017 highs and producing a new average price high for Townhouses.

​I assume that buyer’s balance sheets are cash flow pandemic proof.

Res-Listings down 27% from MAY 2013 high
Res-Sales down 15% from JUN 2016 high

Current Monthly Absorption Rate = 65%
Current Months of Inventory = 2

Toronto SF Detached Price
Down 3.4% from MAR 2017 Peak
Up 131% in last 10 years

Toronto Town-House Price
NEW PEAK PRICE AUG 2020
T-Houses are priced at 63% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.6 Townhouses

Toronto Condo Price
Down 5.5% from FEB 2020 Peak
Condos are priced at 54% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.9 Condos

#28 blogshark on 09.03.20 at 4:30 pm

#1 KNOW IT ALL on 09.03.20 at 3:39 pm

Bring on the slaughter I just put a combined 30K cash available in my accounts for re-balancing and topping up!!!

woo-hoooooooooooo as we ride down splash mountain to historic buying opportunities.

#29 pacific on 09.03.20 at 4:31 pm

We made a move from Edmonton to Salt Spring Island a few years ago. 13 is a the best age for a kid to move. They would be going to a new school regardless.

Middle School can be a nightmare for girls. Fresh start new friends, all good.

#30 Penny Henny on 09.03.20 at 4:33 pm

#22 Penny Henny on 09.03.20 at 4:22 pm
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///////////

Did you at least get a laugh out of it?

#31 Ardy on 09.03.20 at 4:36 pm

Welcome to London…..the Forest City.

World class university, college and healthcare.

Top notch retailers, sports, trails,surrounded by farms.

And for $700K….you can buy a real nice home.

If you feel the need to go to TO……it is 2 hours away.

Nice, quiet, safe city with mostly nice people.

Come on down……

#32 UtterlyConfusedCanadian on 09.03.20 at 4:39 pm

Garth, Why didn’t you suggest they rent a house instead? 700K B&D portfolio should pay rent for life and they could continue to be mobile as the kids start to leave …..

#33 Armpit on 09.03.20 at 4:40 pm

If he is going to sell… do it soon. Within six months, it may be a buyers market.

#34 Bobs Uruncle on 09.03.20 at 4:41 pm

Hey #8 Niagara Region,

Your theory is not quite correct considering the University of Toronto is consistently ranked the best university in the country and the only Canadian university to be ranked in the global top 25. All other Canadian universities are a distance second and below.

#35 Garth Turner Jr. on 09.03.20 at 4:44 pm

Wife had WFH before COVID. I’m a Physical Therapist. We are making the leap from Ottawa. Looking at Kelowna, Victoria, London, and Kingston for affordability, quality of life, and weather. Thoughts?

#36 Hannah on 09.03.20 at 4:46 pm

I understand Terry’s daughter’s angst. I moved from London to the GTA at age 13 too (in the ‘90s). It’s a hard age to move but within a couple of months I was well settled and don’t think the move had any long-term negative effects on me! My parents made the move because oh a stronger job market in TO in their fields. The move was easier for my younger siblings.

In short, your daughter will be fine and with technology available today she’ll have no trouble keeping in touch with old friends, and a 2 hour dive means visits are possible. I found the kids in London to be much more down-to-earth and that the school system was ahead. No idea if this is still true but both would be positive for your daughter.

Go for it, Terry!

#37 FreeBird on 09.03.20 at 4:47 pm

Terry and Jane can use extra investment funds from selling to give daughter a nice trip to Europe when she’s 18. That should make up for any damage to her social life. But also agree with #10 Linda tech makes it easy to stay in touch. T/weens second language no? FGS they text each other in the same room. She’ll be fine. Future free trip to Italy or France just when hormones are driving mom and dad crazy. Win win.

#38 Joe on 09.03.20 at 4:56 pm

That’s a good real life story, Garth. And since you are offering compassionate and realistic advice, i thought i might try you out on my situation. My wife and i bought a duplex in montréal half and half with my mother in law, who unfortunately died this Sring. The succession is still working its way through the wheels of the fnancial and legal systems, which seem to grind very slowly. Let’s hope at least they grind extremly fine.

Still not through the process yet so we cannot sell this summer, even if we wanted to.

My wife likes the area and so is inclined to buy the other half. That amounts to about $500,000.

We are retired and about your age. We have enough money so that it is not onnerous to buy. We even may be able to make money by getting a low rate mortgage and keep our money invested. We could pay cSh if we wanted to but it doesn’t seem to make sense with low interest rates.

But, the big problem is that if we bought it we would have to become landlords and rent one apartment out. My neighbours who do this say it is not a big problem. But…. also i see other houses in the neighbourhood getting the foundations re Done. Doing lots of work on the old place doesn’t look too appealing, either. Any compassionate and wise advice on this situation?
Joe

Don’t do it. – Garth

#39 Drew on 09.03.20 at 4:57 pm

Oh my god Toronto people are the worst. Outside of Toronto is scary as hell so you all should probably just stay.

-Signed, someone not from Toronto, living in Toronto, that hates it, and wants to get the hell out.

#40 Dominoes Lining Up on 09.03.20 at 4:58 pm

33 Armpit said “If he is going to sell… do it soon. Within six months, it may be a buyers market.”

Similarly, I have a feeling that changes in markets, weather, school, politics and more will have us looking back within weeks at this crazy summer RE bubble in disbelief.

I think for Terry and Jane they may have missed the boat. A month too late IMHO.

If not, I’d say list by this weekend to have the best shot at it, a last chance for the 2020 bubble and finding a Greater Fool.

#41 SpeedWeasel on 09.03.20 at 4:58 pm

I have never understood the appeal of Toronto. Sure, it’s nice to visit downtown to see a show or visit a gallery, but beyond the core it’s just a vast flat suburb. There’s no ski hills or nice lakes without driving for several hours, plus it doesn’t get cold enough to pursue winter sports. They call themselves Canadian and yet they don’t know how to ski, skate, or paddle a canoe.

(P.S… Leafs suck!)

#42 A J on 09.03.20 at 4:59 pm

The ones who should be really scared are the ones who don’t have this much income and investments. This just proves no matter how much money you have, you’ll still whine.

#43 KS on 09.03.20 at 5:00 pm

$400K saved but no monthly savings…how?

#44 cramar on 09.03.20 at 5:02 pm

1) If Terry doesn’t view this current situation as the best opportunity of his life to sell the Toronto home and move to London for financial security, then he will regret this for the rest of his life.

2) Just found out the hard way that LUMBER is the NEW TOILET PAPER! Went to buy some pressure-treated 2x4s and some places are out of stock and say they cannot get any. One place with some stock has jacked up their price way over last year. Forget it!

People who are cocooning at home must all be building fences to keep out the virus.

#45 Niagara Region on 09.03.20 at 5:06 pm

Re: #34 Bobs Uruncle

Of course I realize that the U of T is the only Canadian university ranked in the first tier globally by university ranking systems (e.g., Quacquarelli Symonds). However, even top-notch Canadian undergraduates do not typically move to Toronto to attend the U of T. In Canada, it is rare for undergraduates to cross provincial boundaries to attend universities. [See, for example, publicly available articles by Marc Frenette, who works for Stats Canada.] An important exception: the children of the wealthy, even if they live in Toronto, do not typically attend the U of T but commonly attend high-ranking universities and colleges in the US or, less commonly, Britain but sometimes in Canada (McGill and Queens). Wealthy students choosing McGill and Queens over U of T is about social capital and homophily [choosing people like oneself], even though the U of T is ranked higher than McGill and Queens [source: Jayne Baker].

#46 KNOW IT ALL on 09.03.20 at 5:11 pm

GARTH…

I said “BEGINS”

#47 Garth's Son Drake on 09.03.20 at 5:12 pm

I won’t be offended if they leave TO.

Should they sell, move down the 401 to London and start a new life on more secure footing, distant from the megalopolis?

Absolutely yes.

This is similar to the play in BC where lower mainlanders are cashing out and moving to Kelowna, BC. London, ON and Kelowna, BC are similar within this context.

And this is why both places will continue to thrive and move up in price.

#48 EVER READY on 09.03.20 at 5:18 pm

Forget real estate. Rent a suite in a beautiful home in a beautiful neighborhood and forget about the stress of ownership and upkeep etc. Beat the Realturds at their own game. Check out and cash in and forever live like a king. Never pay another real estate commission in your life again.

#49 Dirty Dan on 09.03.20 at 5:19 pm

#36 Hannah on 09.03.20 at 4:46 pm
I understand Terry’s daughter’s angst.
In short, your daughter will be fine and with technology available today she’ll have no trouble keeping in touch with old friends, and a 2 hour dive means visits are possible. I found the kids in London to be much more down-to-earth and that the school system was ahead.

Maybe she’s a brainwashed BLM/Antifa activist and the new kids may not be into burning down and rioting in their neighborhood?

Did you ever think about her marginalization?

Hope you enjoyed your last post. – Garth

#50 I just dont get it on 09.03.20 at 5:20 pm

How is it possible that people like this actually exist? How could anybody say no to 1.3million and have a house in Toronto instead? Even at 4% that is over 50,000 a year. 80,000 if you rent. I don’t believe we will see in the coming generations this combination of utter foolishness and sheer dumb ignorant luck.

#51 Reminds me of the feller ... on 09.03.20 at 5:26 pm

that has a gas station for sale in Anahim Lake BC. Less than a one horse town but some great people that I’ve come to know. Has a set price on a sign outside his station but every so often puts up a “special only today sign with a lower price.” Still for sale I understand. Maybe one day …

#52 BlogDog123 on 09.03.20 at 5:37 pm

The person’s main job was “Entertainment Exec”, so not sure if the same job can be had in a smaller city. But able to work remotely, but for how long will that last in the “Entertainment” biz.

But with a paid for house, all that extra cash, they can find something that pays less, perhaps..

I know some people living at their cottage on a lake, doing the same job remotely and no plans to go back to the office…

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.20 at 5:43 pm

@#35 Garth Jr.
Victoria 1st.
Halifax 2nd.

#54 espressobob on 09.03.20 at 5:45 pm

Smart investors take some profit off the table when the opportunity to do so presents itself. Others don’t for some reason.

What’s in your wallet?

#55 Re: Garth Turner Jr. on 09.03.20 at 5:46 pm

Easy answer: Kelowna, BC

But you better hurry up as prices are exploding now that everyone is figuring out the next best place in Canada outside of Vancouver (even better in my opinion as an ex Vancouverite).

Second UBC campus to the massive one already in place being built in a downtown high rise complex that will have connecting sky towers to 3 new towers, 40+ new shiny towers in the development works, lakeside living, beaches galore, new suburbs all over within 5 minute drive to anywhere.

The best part is the rail trail. Connects one from downtown beach all the way to Vernon, BC, connecting you with every major point in town.

I got an electric bike for this rail trail system – no traffic, just fresh air and lake views.

With ride share and the rail trail system you no longer need to own a car in Kelowna.

Take a drive and check out the amazing houses on Dilworth Mtn. It is like living on an exclusive hill in the middle of Stanley Park where the rift raft does not come up, yet with all of the awesome amenities with 5 minutes (like the city of Vancouver that surrounds Stanley Park and the city of Kelowna that surround Dilworth Mtn.)..including that rail trail connecting literally 2 minutes away.

Wilden and Mckinley Beach are two other areas to be moving forward.

Can’t recommend any other areas (even though there are a lot of great ones).

Avoid West Kelowna unless you like boil water advisories, power outages and bottle neck traffic on the bridge due to everyone driving to where they really want to be, which is in Kelowna.

Let’s not forget the state of the art health care expansion and facilities that is overtaking Vancouver as all of the new top doctor specialists (younger not already established in Vancouver) are moving to Kelowna to live like a king that otherwise would only afford them a beat up old house without beach front or lake views if trying to make it in Vancouver.

#56 Jason on 09.03.20 at 5:52 pm

I don’t think people living in Toronto, Vancouver, and Victoria realize how lucky they are (assuming they bought 5+ years ago). You won the housing lottery. Cash out and go live the easy life somewhere else. Those of us in AB would love for this “hard” choice to be a problem.

#57 Toronto_CA on 09.03.20 at 5:57 pm

I was so invested in the story until $2m house.
No brainer, and these people will be fine either way.

But Garth’s right, they should sell and invest in a B&D Portfolio. $200k a year sounds pretty good at 60 to me.

#58 Prairieboy43 on 09.03.20 at 6:00 pm

Dog looks like has FOMD. Fear of missing dinner.

#59 Nonplused on 09.03.20 at 6:01 pm

Well, I like the advice but it is very hard to pry people out of Toronto. Be interesting to see in a few months if they actually list. I’m going to take the under.

Realistically though, they aren’t totally pooched, but they will have to sell at some point. If say they hold on for another 10 years, sure they will miss some substantial B&D returns, but my guess is the ratio of the two housing options will still be roughly the same and will have gone up by some amount. If capital gains on primary residences don’t become a thing (I don’t think they will it would be political suicide) then they may not finish that far behind. But things remain difficult to predict, especially the future.

And I’d be more afraid of cougars than bears in London. But I’d rather take my chances with the wildlife than live in the concrete jungle anyday.

One other advantage to moving to London: The kids will be more likely to voluntarily move out one day.

#60 Mattl on 09.03.20 at 6:02 pm

(b) my 13-year-old daughter will miss her friends.

————————————————————-

This is actually a really big consideration. Leaving your network as you are about to go into high school is pretty tough on a kid. Financially this is a no brainier, but don’t be surprised if the kid has issues making friends at the new school and resents dad for having to move because he couldn’t save.

I personally wouldn’t pull a kid out of school at that age, and if I had to, because I couldn’t get by on 160K a year, that would be pretty embarrassing.

And sure house might be worth less in 4 years, conversely it might sell for much more. I mean 2/4/6/8/10/12/14 years ago the obvious play was also to sell the house but we know how that played out.

#61 boons or bust on 09.03.20 at 6:02 pm

We moved from urban to the outskirt burbs for better schools and safer environment. We have bears go through the yard all the time (surrounded by blueberry farms) and the animals just stick to their own business. The deer do more damage. The kids grew up with great opportunities and we banked the lower living expenses (two acres of garden.) The kids also learned the full circle of life with a world filled with pets, wildlife and a neighbourhood they could explore. They are now grown, confident, and highly skilled. We saved enough that we started buying rural land and leasing it for farming. Imagine going from a downtown office to plow? It can be done. I wouldn’t go back except to visit. This summer I set up a horse trough with a water heater out in a meadow. Outdoor bathing is the best.

#62 Shirl Clarts on 09.03.20 at 6:04 pm

#29 pacific on 09.03.20 at 4:31 pm
We made a move from Edmonton to Salt Spring Island a few years ago. 13 is a the best age for a kid to move. They would be going to a new school regardless.

Middle School can be a nightmare for girls. Fresh start new friends, all good.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Wow! Most can’t transition their jobs to that remote part of the world. Well done, guys!

But friends wouldn’t be the only adjustment. From suburbia and malls to nature and isolation.

My parents used to say “go outside, the fresh air is good for you.”

Old friends will envy her new moderate climate. Facetime in the winter will be fun.

Randy Bachman is from Salt Spring Island.

#63 Francois Bleau on 09.03.20 at 6:06 pm

I agree, but Montreal could be even better, 4-500k house, almost free university.

#64 Shirl Clarts on 09.03.20 at 6:08 pm

#52 Shirl Clarts on 09.03.20 at 6:04 pm

Correction. Bachman is from Winnipeg, but later moved to Salt Spring Island. Ask around if he’s still there!

#65 jess on 09.03.20 at 6:09 pm

Waterloo fraudster named ‘Con’
…”He explained that this opportunity was very lucrative and not available to the general public.”

https://www.therecord.com/news/waterloo-region/2020/09/03/waterloo-man-named-con-pleads-guilty-to-fraud.html

#66 Ballingsford on 09.03.20 at 6:12 pm

OMG, even the cute pup in the picture looks like he’s concerned about Terry too. Careful with this Garth, this seems like Terry is setting you up for a ‘Just for Laughs’ gag.

#67 Captain Uppa on 09.03.20 at 6:12 pm

While I totally think Terry should move to London, it’s easy for us to judge him looking in from the outside.

I hope whatever he chooses works out for him and his family.

If my line of work continues to shed en masse (aircraft manufacturing), I may be in a similar situation to have to leave the GTA.

#68 Shirl Clarts on 09.03.20 at 6:18 pm

#21 Shirl Clarts on 09.03.20 at 4:13 pm
I agree they should sell.

But they won’t end up with 1.3 Million transferred to investments. What about the transaction costs of buying a new home, selling the current one? There goes at least 100K. Bye, money.

And don’t they have a mortgage to cancel out, or port? Or was the house inherited? No way they don’t have a mortgage with 3 kids in their mid forties, I don’t care what income they have.

No mortgage. Owned 15 years. – Garth

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Ok, fair. They stayed put. These people are smart. Selling is still the best advice, but only if they do it once!

I’d recommend renting for a year to try it out first. Just in case they are not happy there. Put the full 2M into the B&D portfolio.

Staring at all those zeros will ease the stigma of being a 2nd class renter.

#69 Paul on 09.03.20 at 6:20 pm

Viewed a few homes a little out of my area well actually a lot. It is just north of the 401 on the 35/115 getting updates all afternoon so far 32 offers and counting. When this blows the pain will be epic!

#70 Habitt on 09.03.20 at 6:22 pm

Great. Another blog about an average family. Lol

#71 Nonplused on 09.03.20 at 6:24 pm

#8 Niagara Region on 09.03.20 at 3:50 pm
Re: kids taking the subway to university. I’ve read extensively on this topic: most Canadian undergraduates attend local universities, irrespective of the universities’ reputations.

—————————

This is true but the Canadian University landscape is a pretty level playing field, i.e. there aren’t really any “bad” universities. It doesn’t much matter if you get your engineering degree from the University of Saskatchewan or McGill. The funding structure of US universities is what drives the perceived nature of the “Ivy League” and the rest. It’s pay to play down there. Tuition can be $50,000 a year, whereas I don’t know if Canadian universities go much over $5,000 a year. And I think the education you receive is probably nearly as good. Even our “Arts” universities like Emily Carr are pretty well respected.

#72 Bezengy on 09.03.20 at 6:31 pm

Dear Terry,
Sell and move to Timmins. A nice place goes for about $200k which means you and the wifey can retire a lot sooner than even moving to London. The people are friendly and we don’t worry about those random drive by shootings and such other inconveniences that you guys have to deal with.
Signed Goldtown recruitment volunteer.

PS….and don’t let the title “Bears” scare you, you keep your distance and they’ll probably keep theirs.

#73 London on 09.03.20 at 6:32 pm

Londoner here. Rents are skyrocketing in London, Chatham, Guelph and even in Justin Bieber’s home town.
You are gonna make house prices here go higher because of your greedy business acumen. Please don’t bring Toronto to the 519 area.

#74 Nonplused on 09.03.20 at 6:33 pm

#23 Jeff on 09.03.20 at 4:22 pm
$160,000 a year but they save nothing? Why? Three teenagers? Is that supposed to be the reason? Why would three teens be so expensive?

————————–

I’m gonna wager a guess you haven’t raised kids yet. Just insuring them on an old jalopy so they can learn to drive is north of $2,000 a year. Soccer is $1,000 a year, Dog forbid they play hockey, piano lessons are even more than hockey and you need a piano, there are band fees and instrument rentals, clothes, they are constant eating machines, and if you have something like a skiing addiction they will too. And they can’t really do without a cellphone and a laptop anymore these days.
It’s nothing but money.

#75 steve on 09.03.20 at 6:33 pm

————————————–

I agree they should sell.

But they won’t end up with 1.3 Million transferred to investments. What about the transaction costs of buying a new home, selling the current one? There goes at least 100K. Bye, money.

And don’t they have a mortgage to cancel out, or port? Or was the house inherited? No way they don’t have a mortgage with 3 kids in their mid forties, I don’t care what income they have.

No mortgage. Owned 15 years. – Garth

—————————————————–

So they had enough financial knowledge and strength to payoff a Toronto mortgage…by age 30.

But then forgot how to manage money, and now need to sell their home to fund a retirement.

Strange.

They bought 15 years ago, and I have no idea when the loan was paid. Probably recently. But, so what? – Garth

#76 Roial 1 on 09.03.20 at 6:34 pm

35 Garth Turner Jr. on 09.03.20 at 4:44 pm

Please DON’T look at Vancouver Island. I am trying to keep it off of the retirement radar as my daughter is planning to move here for her retirement and I don’t want her to have TOOO much competition.
People from Ontario don’t like it anyway. To quiet. LOL’

#77 David Portnoy on 09.03.20 at 6:51 pm

Sell, put the 1.3 Million (or whatever the net winds up being) in XPF. Rent for a while using the proceeds from XPF to pay your living expenses. Then, when the condo crash (or SFD crash) has run its course, sell some of the XPF, pay for the place with cash and call it a day.

re: posts 1,4,5 and 29: This plop has to have been the worst kept secret of all time. VIX and VXN have been sounding the alarms for almost two weeks now. Much of the drop was due to the overinflated FATMANG’s. (SPY down 3.5% while RSP down 2.3%). The advance/decline ratio on the NYSE was a healthy .24 meaning this wasn’t a secular, fear-based plunge (CF June 9 where ADR was .03). We’ll see what tomorrow brings. It seems likely that there will be a rotation into value/beaten down names in the near future once tech has lost some lustre. The economy aint great, but it keeps surprising to the positive. And, there’s a vaccine in the wings for whose unveiling you want to be holding equities and definitely NOT WFH tech.

If you hold big tech names and can still book a profit, might be a good time to do so and rotate into a value or low vol oriented ETF. XMW, VVL. Canadian stuff like XMV or CDZ look like they might be good choices.

#78 cuke and tomato picker on 09.03.20 at 6:51 pm

Everybody should just stay where they are and be happy you live in Canada the best country in the world.

#79 Marvin on 09.03.20 at 6:53 pm

I’m surprised a middle of the road option wasn’t offered, sell and rent in Toronto for 5 yrs kid finishes high school.

#80 Editrix on 09.03.20 at 6:54 pm

Terry will be an idiot if he doesn’t cash out immediately. Not sure what part of the Entertainment biz he’s in, but unless it’s animation or video games, his job might not be around if COVID lasts a couple of years. He should protect himself and his family.

#81 Nonplused on 09.03.20 at 6:56 pm

#76 Roial 1 on 09.03.20 at 6:34 pm
35 Garth Turner Jr. on 09.03.20 at 4:44 pm

Please DON’T look at Vancouver Island. I am trying to keep it off of the retirement radar as my daughter is planning to move here for her retirement and I don’t want her to have TOOO much competition.
People from Ontario don’t like it anyway. To quiet. LOL’

———————–

Riding the ferry is fun a couple of times but after a while it becomes just another expensive waste of time. Don’t move to the island until you have sold your RV and bought a mobility scooter instead. Preferably one with a roof.

#82 Barb on 09.03.20 at 6:56 pm

Terry and wife and kids can buy my 15 acres in Okanagan.
Come on over!

#83 The West on 09.03.20 at 7:01 pm

“It’s the bears! Even when I thought it was the immigants, I knew it was the bears!”

– Mo Sizlack

#84 cramar on 09.03.20 at 7:04 pm

KNOW IT ALL on 09.03.20 at 3:39 pm

And the market slaughter begins……..
you were warned!!

Up 60% and down 4%, and you call it a slaughter? Glad you’re not an advisor. – Garth

—-

And a great advisor such as yourself knows that a 5-month rally is not corrected in 1 day!

The E*Trade baby knows that. – Garth

#85 Nonplused on 09.03.20 at 7:21 pm

#45 Niagara Region on 09.03.20 at 5:06 pm

It is better to get good marks at the second ranked university than bad marks at the first, so it is still up to the student.

#86 will on 09.03.20 at 7:25 pm

Yeah that one was easy. Sell the house high, buy another low and invest the rest non-registered. But Who or What is Drake? Nevermind I’ll Google it…

#87 Garth Turner Jr. on 09.03.20 at 7:29 pm

@ 55 “Kelowna, BC”

Thanks for the thoughtful post. We’ve also heard good things just outside Kelowna (Lake Country, Peachland, Summerland) for more affordable options.

FYI – we are 30 and 28 with two little monsters (3 and 1 years) so also thinking about school zones etc.

#88 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 09.03.20 at 7:30 pm

London has low crime and lots of churches and many various houses of worship. Of course, Western has its perks and London is low key and worth a look. Toronto people will be impressed because London is so off the radar but only two hours away.

#89 KoniJr on 09.03.20 at 7:35 pm

Great advice, if I was in his position I would have rented in London, cashed out, taken a breather from real estate and invested that 2M in a B & D portfolio with you.

#90 Nonplused on 09.03.20 at 7:44 pm

#149 Don Guillermo on 09.03.20 at 12:36 am

#115 Nonplused on 09.02.20 at 8:11 pm

**************************************

Wow, I actually thought you were one of the smarter posters on here. Then I saw this ” Well, no actually. My son is 14 so we left the decision to him … ” Yikes!

———————————-

It’s not life or death, he’ll be online and supervised 6 hours a day, and he can rejoin classes for the second semester if things aren’t working out or if covid mysteriously goes away after Nov. 3.

So, I’ve read a lot of parenting advice, on the internet mind you so it’s probably all crap, but an overlying theme seems to be “let your kids fail”. No helicopter parenting. Nothing breeds success like failure. No “participation trophies”. So he being 14, almost old enough to drive by himself, I want him to consider and experience the outcomes of his decisions. And not be able to blame me.

This story is going a bit far but when I was a young man, say about 12, I wanted to take guitar lessons. Well, you had to have a guitar, which I did not, so I got accordion lessons instead because my parents could rent one. I hated carrying that thing on the bus. I quit. I never did get my guitar lessons.

Folks, kids are a lot like dogs at the dog park. Yes, you need to establish boundaries, but let them play as they wish.

And anyway I don’t know what the big deal is, he had two approved and facilitated by the school board choices and he chose one. It’s not like he is skipping school. It’s not like he’s joined a gang and is selling drugs in the school parking lot. No 4:20 for him, at least this semester.

#91 Keith in Rio on 09.03.20 at 8:13 pm

And to think I moved to a different country and learned another language.

Torontonians are a bunch of gerls.

Give me Terry’s email address and I’ll send him some pics of the beach in December. You see, I’ve been to London as well. A couple of million and you’re still gonna live in Soviet Kanuckustan ?

You’ve got to be kidding me.

#92 Chester in the summer on 09.03.20 at 8:32 pm

No pensions, save the usual crappy insurance-company mutual fund-laden group RRSP. No non-registered account. Matched by silly employer

Nailed it….

#93 Don Guillermo on 09.03.20 at 8:33 pm

#90 Nonplused on 09.03.20 at 7:44 pm
#149 Don Guillermo on 09.03.20 at 12:36 am

#115 Nonplused on 09.02.20 at 8:11 pm

**************************************

Wow, I actually thought you were one of the smarter posters on here. Then I saw this ” Well, no actually. My son is 14 so we left the decision to him … ” Yikes!

———————————-

It’s not life or death, he’ll be online and supervised 6 hours a day, and he can rejoin classes for the second semester if things aren’t working out or if covid mysteriously goes away after Nov. 3.

So, I’ve read a lot of parenting advice, on the internet mind you so it’s probably all crap, but an overlying theme seems to be “let your kids fail”. No helicopter parenting. Nothing breeds success like failure. No “participation trophies”. So he being 14, almost old enough to drive by himself, I want him to consider and experience the outcomes of his decisions. And not be able to blame me.

This story is going a bit far but when I was a young man, say about 12, I wanted to take guitar lessons. Well, you had to have a guitar, which I did not, so I got accordion lessons instead because my parents could rent one. I hated carrying that thing on the bus. I quit. I never did get my guitar lessons.

Folks, kids are a lot like dogs at the dog park. Yes, you need to establish boundaries, but let them play as they wish.

And anyway I don’t know what the big deal is, he had two approved and facilitated by the school board choices and he chose one. It’s not like he is skipping school. It’s not like he’s joined a gang and is selling drugs in the school parking lot. No 4:20 for him, at least this semester.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

As expected, good response and most likely a successful approach. Cheers

#94 Bonobo on 09.03.20 at 8:38 pm

DELETED

#95 kommykim on 09.03.20 at 8:49 pm

Here’s an article the dogs will enjoy. This guy was renting condos and houses and then running Airbnbs out of them. He is now suing the owners for losses after his Airbnb business collapsed, due to incompetence and bylaw infractions!
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/airbnb-host-vancouver-lawsuits-failed-listings-1.5710174

#96 Don Guillermo on 09.03.20 at 8:54 pm

#202 steve on 09.03.20 at 6:25 pm
———————————–

#142 PastThePeak on 09.02.20 at 11:45 pm
If a job can be done 100% remotely from the 905 instead of the 416…then it can be done 100% remotely from India, or any other nation that with a labour cost a fraction of Canada’s.

Be careful what you advocate for…
___________________

My experience with outsourcing to Bangalore is mixed at best; and I’ve done this at quite a few large multi-nationals (Aon for one).

The service levels are constantly fluctuating, staff turnover is a major problem, costs rise, and obviously there are issues with language and time zones when working with a foreign country on the other side of the planet.

I don’t think outsourcing to India (or the Phillipines) is the risk to white collar jobs in Toronto that you think it is. HOWEVER – I would easily see jobs moving to rural Canada. Moncton has bilingual, time-zone appropriate Canadian employees eager to work. TD bank moved a whole section of financial reporting there recently.

————————————————-

This is very accurate. Our company works very closely with AON.

Our India outsourcing is going bad, very bad.

Our business moved to Eastern Canada is going very well.

If we could do it again (we cannot, we are under contract) we would not have outsourced anything to India

****************************************

My experience with outsourcing detail engineering to India was very positive. This was some years ago and we were engineering an NGL pipeline from Shedgum to Yanbu in Saudi Arabia (KSA). A decision was made to bring one of the key Mumbai engineers into the Calgary office for a couple of years. He became the main interface to the Mumbai office and kept his work well on track. The Calgary company was very happy and increased their Mumbai office scope on future projects.

#97 MF on 09.03.20 at 8:54 pm

steve on 09.03.20 at 6:33 pm

A house 15 years ago was half the price (often less) than it is now.

Interest rates and debt levels were normal and central banks weren’t spending billions of dollars manipulating the interest rates of bonds downward to “keep the party going so someone else can deal with it later”.

This guy’s a great example of how much of a failed strategy this has all been. The only way he gets ahead is if he moves to some smaller town and tears his family away from their friends and life here in the gta. If he moves within the gta he just spends more buying someone else’s overvalued house. Of course he’s confused. All these homeowners should be.

MF

#98 Lake Country on 09.03.20 at 8:55 pm

Great post Garth and we couldn’t agree more. We moved out of the 416 a couple of years ago to a mid-size city and it has been totally positive in every respect for us!
We loved growing up and starting our careers in the “big smoke” but those days are long gone and the city is no longer the TO we used to love!

#99 Grizzled Dink on 09.03.20 at 9:12 pm

You can call him a wuss and he won’t deny it, but it was the comment about the kid that killed the call. That generation of parents spoil their kids rotten and then rant about how they are out of control, but then lose their shit when other ppl point it out, lol.

#100 Drinking on 09.03.20 at 9:12 pm

400k saved, a house worth 2 million, 3 pre teenage kids that can easily adjust to a move in which millions have done and he hung up on you with free advice…

Goes to show you the mindset of today’s society!

I did need a good laugh after this challenging week, thanks!

#101 How? on 09.03.20 at 9:16 pm

How did they pay off a million dollar home in 15 years and save an additional $400k with a family income of $160 by their mid 40s? Massive inheritance? Lottery win?

Probably because it did not cost that much 15 years ago, nor did they have kids when they bought. How is that a big stretch over a decade and a half, unless you spend all you earn? – Garth

#102 tccontrarian on 09.03.20 at 9:35 pm

What possible reason can you dream up for not doing this? I asked.

His best two were: (a) it’s very scary leaving Toronto (there could be bears in London) and (b) my 13-year-old daughter will miss her friends.

After I recovered, we reviewed things.
———————————————————-

I read this 5 minutes ago and I still haven’t recovered! Hilarious how people think (or don’t think, actually).

If I were in similar situation, I’d list tomorrow, sell by end of next week (first reasonable bid), and move by end of October.

Talking of ‘bears’ – he’s about to discover that the bears that lurk in markets (financial and/or RE), can be more scary than the ones that lurk in the woods.

Mostly cash and short now, with only a few juniors in gold (<5%). The bear has been poked and is about to devour most portfolios. I'm gonna enjoy the next few months methinks…

tcc

#103 Nonplused on 09.03.20 at 9:45 pm

#99 How? on 09.03.20 at 9:16 pm
How did they pay off a million dollar home in 15 years and save an additional $400k with a family income of $160 by their mid 40s? Massive inheritance? Lottery win?

Probably because it did not cost that much 15 years ago, nor did they have kids when they bought. How is that a big stretch over a decade and a half, unless you spend all you earn? – Garth

———————————

They probably didn’t make $160,000 the whole time and so maybe they inherited some money. So what? My secret was stock options. No point being sour when someone has some good luck or plays it well.

#104 DON on 09.03.20 at 9:52 pm

@ The Jag

I get your point, come the autumn flu season. But fear seems to be stronger than logic. And then there’s the human nature dimension.

#105 SoggyShorts on 09.03.20 at 9:55 pm

income = under 160K
or
2.4m invested = ~160K?

If it wasn’t for the kids they’d be done. Cash out and struggle to spend half that on a beach somewhere.

Even with the kids, the London option is decent.

#106 Nonplused on 09.03.20 at 10:03 pm

#91 Don Guillermo on 09.03.20 at 8:33 pm

As expected, good response and most likely a successful approach. Cheers

———————————–

Well we’ll see. PS he’s failed his learner’s license 3 times so far but that don’t mean I give him any help unless he asks except make sure he has the study materials, and from now on he has to pay to take it again. The carrot is there though, the day he passes he will get to drive home. Well the slow parts anyway. And he’s plenty embarrassed about it because his sisters passed in 2 and 1 trys respectively. You cannot believe how embarrassed he is that both his sisters beat him at the learner’s test. I say well that is what happens if you get cocky and don’t study. You won’t be driving home. And from now on you pay for it.

#107 Niagara Region on 09.03.20 at 10:03 pm

#71 Nonplussed
This is true but the Canadian University landscape is a pretty level playing field, i.e. there aren’t really any “bad” universities. It doesn’t much matter if you get your engineering degree from the University of Saskatchewan or McGill.
___________________________
In many fields, it matters fiercely to a person’s employment opportunities at which Canadian university a person earned degrees. I am not promoting going to highly ranked schools. I am saying, though, that there is a firmly entrenched (often invisible) prestige system regarding the institutional pedigree of the schools that a person attends, and such affiliations have profound consequences on a person’s career–even in a university system like the Canadian one, where most universities are public.

#108 Vanreal on 09.03.20 at 10:06 pm

What happens when his company tells him to get his ass back to the office. Is he going to commute from London. Also if he can telecommute then why London why doesn’t he move somewhere decent like Victoria. Still cheaper than Toronto but a way better climate than London. I lived in London for a couple of years and you have to like snow! Way more of the white plague than Toronto.

#109 How? on 09.03.20 at 10:17 pm

Let’s say the house cost them $750 15 years ago. Let’s say they show saved 25% by the time they were 30. That leaves a $560k mortgage to pay off in 15 years. That would cost them roughly $800k given interest rates at that time.

So, they amassed 400k by mid 40s in mutual funds while also paying off 1 million dollars for a home.

If that isn’t a stretch for you Garth, why do you make it out to be so hard to afford homes? A family income of 160 isn’t that uncommon.

To answer your question, my family income is slightly less than 160, we live frugally (much more so than the vast majority) and with 2 young kids, we are only able to save $15k a year. No trips, no nice cars, town house, no fancy phones, same age,similar income, and only 300k saved with a paid off house that originally cost 250 15 years ago.

Can’t imagine how they did it.

#110 Robbie on 09.03.20 at 10:55 pm

Careful Garth, some people do not react well to hearing the unvarnished truth. Poor sensitive souls. As an ex-teacher, I can assure him that his daughter will make new friends. Kids should not be making decisions for adults.

#111 yorkville renter on 09.03.20 at 10:59 pm

Geeze… but, they’d have to live in London Ontario where there’s far less to do and WAY more snow than T.O.

I’m surprised the “Sell the house and Rent in Toronto” wasn’t provided as an option…

#112 jacetheace on 09.03.20 at 11:10 pm

If they are lucky,T & J will be eating dog food in retirement years!

#113 the Jaguar on 09.03.20 at 11:24 pm

@#104 DON on 09.03.20 at 9:52 pm
@ The Jag

I get your point, come the autumn flu season. But fear seems to be stronger than logic. And then there’s the human nature dimension. ++++

Gotcha, but wouldn’t that imply that the ‘fear factor’ would align with the masks, sanitizing, social distancing, and hand washing? Just one more protective factor (?). Not good for the economy as the fear factor keeps people out of airplanes, restaurants, concert and sports venues, but the more people hunker down at home with Netflix, the less germs are being spread. My observation is that six months in to this crisis we know a great deal more about what we need to focus on. McDonalds is serving up Canadian beef again, the seniors homes issue is also under control, so if we are having significant ‘outbreaks’ let’s have an honest discussion about where and why. Density is clearly the issue whether in cities, homes, religious gatherings, or other gatherings. We also need to get serious about the analysis of the numbers. Example: As at August 31:
Alberta:13,902 cases, 239 deaths, 44 in hospital 8 in ICU.

BC: 5790 cases, 208 deaths, 28 in hospital, 10 in ICU.

Tests performed: Alberta – 767,296 BC 366,635

We out tested you by more than half, which has to account for a good portion of the number of cases discovered. What is really revealing and requires more analysis is where the case counts are highest, i.e. neighbourhoods with higher density households, i.e. east of the Deerfoot in Calgary, and North Van, Surrey, and Abbotsford in lower mainland. If health authorities want to be taken seriously they have to address cause and effect. There is just too much at stake given we cannot afford any further lockdowns. Some businesses are at the end of their rope. It’s now up to all of us to use everything we have learned to get back to full safety levels.

#114 Left GTA on 09.03.20 at 11:29 pm

We did this last year. Left the Gta with 2 teenagers and moved to the kitchener/waterloo area. The 20 years in Gta we also worked hard and paid down our mortgage we were almost mortgage free when we moved and had some money in rrsps and resp a small manulife rrsp match and my pension. Now we are mortgage free and most of our assets are in our rrsp’s and tfsa’s. It feels great best decision ever. I only work part time now and hubby is retired from his high pressure Software job. Who knows maybe he will get a hobby job. He is a lot less stressed with time on his hands and money in the bank. The kids love it here. Also we downsized our stupid big house where everyone sat in their own rooms on their computers etc and moved into a modest bungalow with better use of space. We spend much more time together as a family. Also have 2 dogs now and we go out walking with the kids all the time. Great way to talk and really hear your kids. Teenagers need their parents attention, its hard to pay attention when you are working too much because you are stressed to pay a mortgage, have a crappy gta commute. We gave our kids much more freedom this past year as well as let them fail at things which is part of growing up. When you spend real time with them you are not arguing or lecturing. You are discussing and listening. When this is happening you don’t have to helicopter parent as you know your kids well and trust them. It has been a fantastic year and I wish we did it a long time ago.

#115 Left GTA on 09.03.20 at 11:57 pm

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/22299018/23-west-cove-cambridge

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/22310016/31-chalet-crescent-london#view=neighbourhood

I found you a couple of houses Terry and Jane.

#116 pacific on 09.04.20 at 12:17 am

RE: Keith in Rio

I remember you from that old Alberta Blog. I wonder what happened to Squidly77?

#117 NSNG on 09.04.20 at 12:35 am

He doesn’t have to worry about bears in London. They’re all roaming the Nasdaq today.

In case anyone was wondering what the correction was about today, apparently, the whales are playing wag the dog in the options market:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/speculation-emerges-over-identity-mystery-marketwide-call-buyer

#118 Victor V on 09.04.20 at 1:41 am

Canadian consumer debt climbs as mortgage balances weigh: Study

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canadian-consumer-debt-climbs-as-mortgage-balances-weigh-study-1.1488937

#119 Mike in Van on 09.04.20 at 1:43 am

$500,000? What’s the London equivalent to Vancouver?

#120 Mio on 09.04.20 at 4:42 am

I still do not understand the obsession with paying for your offspring’s uni — make them pay for it themselves. And also, uni is not for everyone.

But hopefully this family sees the light anyway and moves away from Toronto.

#121 Manuel Scarola on 09.04.20 at 5:22 am

The market us setting up for a move higher this is a bullish pullback imo nothing goes up in a straight line

#122 BillyBob on 09.04.20 at 5:39 am

#91 Keith in Rio on 09.03.20 at 8:13 pm
And to think I moved to a different country and learned another language.

Torontonians are a bunch of gerls.

Give me Terry’s email address and I’ll send him some pics of the beach in December. You see, I’ve been to London as well. A couple of million and you’re still gonna live in Soviet Kanuckustan ?

You’ve got to be kidding me.

====================================================

If you think Portugese is tough, try Mandarin or Czech. Ugh. Google translate and pantomime go a long way hahah!

Rio is insane, loved it. Sure, has the rep for the crime but I never found it an issue if you were half-smart about it. Kind of like, um, anywhere. Totally misunderstood by those who’ve never been to places they’ll only ever “visit” on Facebook.

Good luck convincing anyone to think outside the box, it’s just not there anymore. We have officially abandoned critical thought when you have to PERSUADE someone to harvest a couple million cause the catch is…AN INTERPROVINCIAL MOVE!

OOOOOoooooooohhh….

Seriously just how small ARE most people’s comfort zones now? The MF’s of the world are taking over and it’s not a good look.

#123 BillyBob on 09.04.20 at 6:11 am

Should have been “IN-PROVINCE” move, although moving between provinces is hardly earth-shattering either…leaving the world’s largest sub-sovereign debt behind could actually be viewed as an improvement…

#124 Wrk.dover on 09.04.20 at 6:48 am

At 13 years old. Hmm, what would Greta do? Breath Toronto air or move to London, given the chance?

Asking for myself I guess, no else cares about that issue!

Air, take it for granted!

#125 Tater on 09.04.20 at 7:44 am

There is another option, sell the house and rent. $2mio should throw off $140k per year. In midtown you can likely rent an equivalent house for $4500 a month. Each year you can max the RRSPs from your existing funds, use the refund to load the TFSA, AND pay your rent fully, and at 7% return (even with rent growing 2% a year) in 20 years you’ve got 7mio in liquid assets, or so.

This to me is the middle path. Doesn’t require uprooting the whole family, but puts them in a far better situation.

#126 Mr Canada on 09.04.20 at 7:54 am

Of course he should move out of the city, encouraged by all the bloggers commenting who also live in Toronto who have no desire to move either… lol

#127 Joseph T.O on 09.04.20 at 8:09 am

We have lots of friends who couldn’t hack it in the big smoke, and had to move to a suburban hellscape with their tail between their legs. It happens, but I always feel bad going to visit them in the soulless suburbs. Such a depressing landscape of cookie cutter homes and big box stores.

For the wife and I, we’re mid 30s, doing quite well in our careers, and making tons of $$ here in Toronto. There is no chance we would be as successful living in Peterborough, London, Windsor, Hamilton, or any other sad-sack city in Ontario – regardless of housing cost. The jobs just ain’t there.

Plus, Toronto is consistently ranked one of the top cities in the world to live. Who would want to leave!? With a family cottage a 2 hr drive north, it’s easy enough to get out of the city for some nature when needed.

I always find it funny the ppl touting the great lifestyle away from Toronto. Let’s be honest – it’s human nature to justify your choices, even if you’re miserable and they were piss-poor choices.

#128 MF on 09.04.20 at 8:15 am

122 BillyBob on 09.04.20 at 5:39

Maybe the MF’s of the world don’t have to move because they are happy and successful where they are?

Did you ever think about that?

Not everyone is a failure who had to flee and start over somewhere fresh because they made stupid mistakes. Some of us actually were smart.

MF

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.20 at 8:53 am

@#127 MF
“Maybe the MF’s of the world don’t have to move because they are happy and successful where they are?
“””

Justifying your “happiness” sounds rather….. sad.

#130 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.04.20 at 8:56 am

#120 Mio on 09.04.20 at 4:42 am
I still do not understand the obsession with paying for your offspring’s uni — make them pay for it themselves. And also, uni is not for everyone.

But hopefully this family sees the light anyway and moves away from Toronto.

—-

If you can do it, it will be a nice boon to the kid to start out their adult life without a massive amount of debt. You’ll be paying for it one way or another anyways. Might as well use compound growth and tax free gains to make it easier on yourself.

RESPs don’t need to be used for University. They also don’t need to be used when they’re 17/18 yo either. RESPs can be used for any post-secondary education, up to the age of 30 I believe.

I understand the thought process in some respects of making kids pay their own way. Grow hair on their chests and all, but most of them just take on a 80g of debt and then whine about it for the rest of their lives (as we’re seeing). I had to work at a manufacturing plant to put myself through school, pay for my own meals, car and an apartment. It was good life experience, but I don’t wish it on my kids… I’d much rather them just focus on school.

#131 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.04.20 at 9:04 am

#125 Tater on 09.04.20 at 7:44 am
There is another option, sell the house and rent. $2mio should throw off $140k per year. In midtown you can likely rent an equivalent house for $4500 a month. Each year you can max the RRSPs from your existing funds, use the refund to load the TFSA, AND pay your rent fully, and at 7% return (even with rent growing 2% a year) in 20 years you’ve got 7mio in liquid assets, or so.

This to me is the middle path. Doesn’t require uprooting the whole family, but puts them in a far better situation.

——-

You’re a pain in the butt Tater, but you’re not wrong here.

#132 Dharma Bum on 09.04.20 at 9:14 am

Toronto is like the Hotel California in the Twilight Zone.

It has a weird zombifying effect on people.

“You can check out any time you like…but you can never leave!”

It’s a mind trap.

#133 Toronto_CA on 09.04.20 at 9:15 am

#125 Tater on 09.04.20 at 7:44 am

But renting is for poor people! good luck getting the wife on board with renting after being a homeowner for decades and having it pay off so well. (Logically, you are completely right though – just RE is never logical)

#134 NoName on 09.04.20 at 9:21 am

little bit comic relief from tok tok anybody home investors.

…put a dollar in, 92c back, dude
https://twitter.com/TikTokInvestors/status/1300983547797417985

chill out my child, and free shares dude…

https://twitter.com/TikTokInvestors/status/1300945200211202053

https://twitter.com/TikTokInvestors/status/1299504846987571201

#135 Dharma Bum on 09.04.20 at 9:33 am

Crowdy Fartz – from yesterday’s post on WFH:

Stories about goofing off and effing the dee on WFH are myriad.

Back in the day, I was a salesman with a home office and “on the road”, around the time that “mobile phones” were fairly new. You know – the ones that were hard wired into your car console and had a handset/receiver you clamped into a holder. If you weren’t in the car – you couldn’t answer calls. (although pagers were still a thing.)

When questioned sometimes as to why it took so long to call back, it was because “I was visiting a customer”.

After a couple of years, the early version of the “take anywhere” cell phones came out, and were issued to all the sales guys.

That was when I realized that I could keep in touch with my customers from a chairlift between ski runs in BC.

I took several jaunts from the GTA to Vancouver and skied Whistler, Silverstar, Big White, and even scooted across the border a few times to Mt. Baker in Washington.

WFH was a great gig back in the day.

Of course, in those days, they couldn’t track you with GPS like they can today!

In my most recent corporate job, before I went full BUM, my last shameful task was to facilitate the hardwiring of GPS gizmos into all the delivery trucks and salespersons’
company vehicles so we could track them and monitor their whereabouts 24/7.

It became my job to spy and pry and interrogate and report.

I felt like I was in the KGB.

WFH and outside sales jobs are not the freedom panacea that they used to be.

Peeler joints are gonna lose biz for sure.

Day drinking is getting harder.

Glad I got out while the gittin’ wuz good.

#136 Dharma Bum on 09.04.20 at 9:43 am

On the subject of getting out of Toronto, I was fortunate that a couple of my kids were able to find work in their respective fields in other cities (one in eastern Ontario, and one in Alberta).

Housing costs are 40% and 30% of Toronto’s costs.

They both bought houses and still have a proper amount left over to invest regularly, and live nicely.

For a young person today, being stuck in Toronto because that’s where they need to work is nothing short of a curse. A debt hole they’re unlikely to dig themselves out of.

If you can, GET OUT!

#137 the Jaguar on 09.04.20 at 9:59 am

Interesting read about how airlines are responding to profitability challenges by carrying more cargo………

https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/09/621884/passenger-flights-forbidden-airliners-are-ferrying-seafood-gadgets

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.20 at 10:02 am

@#134 Dharma Bum

ahhh yesss the GPS trackers in the company vehicles.
Two examples I saw were
a) A large multinational Air Conditioning company put them in their repair vans and almost 50% of the mechanics walked. The most experienced mechanics…. the ones you want to keep. The company was scrambling for new staff to hire.

b) A small electrical company installed GPS in their 6 vans and after 2 months fired 3/4’s of their electricians because the guys were doing side jobs with the company vehicles after work.

GPS works great if you dont mind big brother tracking you.
On a side note one of the vans full of material and tools was stolen and the cops tracked it down and caught the guys.
A rare occurrence in the Lower Brain land.

#139 tbone on 09.04.20 at 10:27 am

I was in sales when we all got cell phones in the 90`s .
One of the guys was late for a sales meeting and the manager checked and said he was in the still in the east end of the city .
Figured out how to turn off the tracking on the cell phones and we were never challenged on it .
Must of been a privacy issue .

I remember the service guys were pissed when the gps was installed in their vans .

#140 TurnerNation on 09.04.20 at 10:43 am

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz what about dog collars for staff? See link below.

Submit to the New System. Four our health.
People comment ‘when Covid goes away’.
It won’t be. Until the finances and culture of 1st World countries is destroyed. Not to mention the Certificate of Vax ID (COV-ID)- all must get to travel, transact commerce. All planned out.
In the meantime there’s this:

Control over our food, movements and breeding.

The wearable (it says around wrist or neck!) electronic tracking collar is deployed in Canada, by a Canadian company, for worker slaves. (But all those prisoners were released – no ankle monitors for them, they are free.)
CV did this Sumbit to the New Slave System, pictures are here. Employees would be best to all call in sick the day the tracking collars are deployed…that would be fun.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200903005314/en/
Facedrive Health developed industry-specific TraceSCAN wearable technology to slow the spread of COVID-19 at the workplace through wristbands, wearable tags worn around the neck or pods that can be kept in the pocket

#141 Stoph on 09.04.20 at 10:43 am

#109 How? on 09.03.20 at 10:17 pm

To answer your question, my family income is slightly less than 160, we live frugally (much more so than the vast majority) and with 2 young kids, we are only able to save $15k a year. No trips, no nice cars, town house, no fancy phones, same age,similar income, and only 300k saved with a paid off house that originally cost 250 15 years ago.

—————————————————————–

You live frugally on $160k and only save $15k with a paid off home?

I’m sure blog dogs here would be more than helpful and give you advice on where to find savings if you share your budget.

BTW: a $560k mortgage amortized over 15 years at 3.5% is $4k/month – doable for a professional couple.

#142 Kevin on 09.04.20 at 10:49 am

Yep sell everything and move. London, Victoria, take the money and move west.
Any thoughts about going out east are bad. Weather is terrible, people are unfriendly, cost of living is insanely high.
Especially stay away from Lunenburg. Its a horrible place.

#143 Foder Munschen on 09.04.20 at 10:52 am

Budget misdirection hides a darker evil working inside the Liberal Party ideologues. Who escalates a war against family values by attacking children? Evil evil evil. Yes, this blog doesn’t like politics. But shouldn’t every adult take the line and protect those who can’t defend themselves?

https://thenationaltelegraph.com/interviews/psychotherapist-says-liberal-government-is-pushing-transgender-ideology-on-children

#144 BillyBob on 09.04.20 at 11:04 am

#127 MF on 09.04.20 at 8:15 am
122 BillyBob on 09.04.20 at 5:39

Maybe the MF’s of the world don’t have to move because they are happy and successful where they are?

============================================

Good grief, you don’t even sound like you believe it yourself, and you want the rest of us to?

You do realize you’re doing exactly what I said: making more stupid sweeping generalizations. In this case about people who choose to leave their homeland and try somewhere else that may offer better opportunities for their circumstances. Or are all the new immigrants you (rightfully) laud also failures? Big logical disconnect there.

But hey you must be glad your ancestors were such “failures” they “fled” for the new world in Canada so you could be so “happy and successful” there lol.

I just didn’t realize those traits had been redefined as constantly complaining about not being able to afford to buy a house in Toronto and envying those who did.

#145 Mattl on 09.04.20 at 11:04 am

#119 Mike in Van on 09.04.20 at 1:43 am
$500,000? What’s the London equivalent to Vancouver?

—————————————————————–

Kelowna. You could, at least a few months ago, get a starter home for under 600K.

A home near us just sold for 800K – 1acre, nice updated home, water view, 1 minute stroll to one of the better beaches on the lake.

Prices have really spiked but for the price of a shack in Burnaby you can get on the water. For the price of a basement walk out in Maple Ridge you can get walk to water / winery, acreage, view.

Great airport here as well, daily directs to TO and some US routes, pre Covid anyways. World class golf, great fishing, wine country, emerging foodie scene. Really great spot, we sure don’t miss the Fraser Valley.

#146 DON on 09.04.20 at 11:21 am

If you are WFH on a computer. It can track you.

#147 Tater on 09.04.20 at 11:26 am

#132 Toronto_CA on 09.04.20 at 9:15 am
#125 Tater on 09.04.20 at 7:44 am

But renting is for poor people! good luck getting the wife on board with renting after being a homeowner for decades and having it pay off so well. (Logically, you are completely right though – just RE is never logical)
————————————————————

I should start a consulting business to help reluctant spouses to see the light.

#148 Leo Trollstoy on 09.04.20 at 11:41 am

This is the saddest story of 2020

My tiny violin broke in half

#149 JBA on 09.04.20 at 11:44 am

“teach them to be able to make friends anywhere in the world and not get stuck to one place because that’s where they were born or grew up or their friends or family are.”

I’ve met these types of people–they seldom have any serious friends, just superficial relationships that would qualify as acquaintances in my book.

#150 MF on 09.04.20 at 12:30 pm

143 BillyBob on 09.04.20 at 11:04 a

My ancestors, like many of ours, left Europe because it was ravaged by war, poverty, tribalism, and violence.

Canada is where the fled to because it did, and still does, represent the opposite of all that: peace, opportunity, freedom.

Someone failing in Canada and having to leave is a personal issue not a societal one, much like working hard and succeeding is a personal issue too. If you fail here and succeed somewhere else it doesn’t mean that other place is better it means you failed in Canada. Other than those who have health issues beyond their control, the only people who I see struggle are those who made bad choices.

Don’t blame others for your bad choices.

PS on house prices: a function of central bank policy and nothing else. Of course I’m upset. Many people are. Not at Toronto, but at the bad policy that created this issue.

MF

#151 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.20 at 12:42 pm

@#150 MF
“My ancestors, like many of ours, left Europe because it was ravaged by war, poverty, tribalism, and violence.”

++++
Well, I guess you can be thankful they didnt immigrate to the US.

Thats exactly what is happening there in 2020.

See!
I found a silver lining in your sows ear…..

No need to thank me.

#152 IHCTD9 on 09.04.20 at 12:49 pm

Terry needs to keep in mind that PR CG taxes are almost surely in the works, maybe also an inclusion rate pop. These would knock RE values down in and of themselves, on top of carpet bombing profits for sellers.

Then there is Trudeau who is not slowing down with the tsunami of spending. How long before inflation rises from the dead?

It’s totally possible in 5 years if the Libs keep the floodgates open that inflation will rise enough to get the BoC moving on a series of increases which would then immediately start eroding home values from the top down.

The entire Western world seems to be setting up to hold rates and taxes down and simultaneously spend thru a fire-hose. Translation, they want inflation come hell or high water. This is new Terry, be careful.

#153 Generation Infinitely Screwed on 09.04.20 at 12:51 pm

Hey another $100 billion per year.. and this is a permanent addition…..

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-liberals-bold-and-ambitious-reimagining-of-canada-could-result-in-100b-spending-blitz/wcm/e0d21c4f-8064-4d71-a4a9-0fd3e6a78384/

#154 Ace Goodheart on 09.04.20 at 12:58 pm

So Erin O’Toole has started to talk.

His words to me sound like the equivalent of fresh, cool air entering a room full of smoke, haze, stink and heat.

On the one side, you have the Liberals, who have degenerated into “woke” movement supporting idealists, advocating long term basic incomes, central control, an economic shift that would be destructive to many of Canada’s core industries, while promoting untested and unproven “green” energy projects, many of which seem to be more dream than reality.

We also have interesting information coming out to the effect that a lot of what Trudeau has been doing, such as trying to label Canadian police forces as “systemically racist” is actually a script. He is following “woke” ideology. He is conducting a labeling process based on an idealogical belief system, the “woke” movement.

Here is Erin on the Liberal “green revolution”:

“I have more experience in the green economy than anyone in that Liberal caucus. I care about it. But we don’t put all of our chips in it,” he said. “With the Trudeau government, it is all about rhetoric and ideology and not about a practical approach.”

Doesn’t that just hit you like a fresh summer breeze on a muggy day? The guy actually understands what he is talking about.

It looks like the Liberals, and particularly Trudeau, are about to get torn down.

Some really interesting political debate is coming down the pipe. Erin is surprising me.

#155 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.20 at 1:08 pm

@#153 Screwed to Infinity

Yep.
And as much as the Millennials want to blame it on Boomers…… aint our fault this time.

Trudeau is going to blow the doors off all previous accumulated debt for the last 50 years in 2 years if he is re-elected.

Another 50 years of punitive tax increases may pay the interest on $2 or $3 trillion of “money for nuthin”….

Spend and tax…. the Liberal mantra for the next 50 years.

#156 jess on 09.04.20 at 1:09 pm

dec 2019: do these individuals have names?

…”According to court documents, HSBC Switzerland admits that between 2000 and 2010 it conspired with its employees, third-party and wholly owned fiduciaries, and U.S. clients to: 1) defraud the United States with respect to taxes; 2) commit tax evasion; and 3) file false federal tax returns. In 2002, the bank had approximately 720 undeclared U.S. client relationships, with an aggregate value of more than $800 million. When the bank’s undeclared assets under management reached their peak in 2007, HSBC Switzerland held approximately $1.26 billion in undeclared assets for U.S. clients.

According to the terms of the DPA, HSBC Switzerland will cooperate fully with the Tax Division and the IRS. The DPA also requires HSBC Switzerland to affirmatively disclose information it may later uncover regarding U.S.-related accounts, as well as to disclose information consistent with the department’s Swiss Bank Program relating to accounts closed between Jan. 1, 2009 and Dec. 31, 2017. Under the DPA, prosecution against the bank for conspiracy will be deferred for an initial period of three years to allow HSBC Switzerland to demonstrate good conduct. The agreement provides no protection for any individuals….(doj)

=============

Indian taxpayers appear a step closer to reaping millions of dollars their fellow citizens have stashed illicitly in secrecy jurisdictions, following a recent landmark ruling against the elderly beneficiary of an undeclared Swiss bank account.

Based on her declared taxable income of less than $4,000 in 2006, the powerful Income Tax Appellate Tribunal (ITAT) noted it would have taken Renu Tikamdas Tharani about 11,500 years to earn the $39.7 million held in the HSBC account in Geneva at the time.

Tharani, who is now in her late 80s and appears to be a U.S. resident, is among the Indian citizens whose names have been linked to Swiss Leaks, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists-led investigation published in 2015, which exposed how the Swiss private banking arm of HSBC profited from doing business with tax dodgers and criminals around the world.

#157 Don Guillermo on 09.04.20 at 1:15 pm

#154 Ace Goodheart on 09.04.20 at 12:58 pm
So Erin O’Toole has started to talk.

His words to me sound like the equivalent of fresh, cool air entering a room full of smoke, haze, stink and heat.

On the one side, you have the Liberals, who have degenerated into “woke” movement supporting idealists, advocating long term basic incomes, central control, an economic shift that would be destructive to many of Canada’s core industries, while promoting untested and unproven “green” energy projects, many of which seem to be more dream than reality.

We also have interesting information coming out to the effect that a lot of what Trudeau has been doing, such as trying to label Canadian police forces as “systemically racist” is actually a script. He is following “woke” ideology. He is conducting a labeling process based on an idealogical belief system, the “woke” movement.

Here is Erin on the Liberal “green revolution”:

“I have more experience in the green economy than anyone in that Liberal caucus. I care about it. But we don’t put all of our chips in it,” he said. “With the Trudeau government, it is all about rhetoric and ideology and not about a practical approach.”

Doesn’t that just hit you like a fresh summer breeze on a muggy day? The guy actually understands what he is talking about.

It looks like the Liberals, and particularly Trudeau, are about to get torn down.

Some really interesting political debate is coming down the pipe. Erin is surprising me
******************************************
I feel the same Ace. Originally like Garth, I believed MacKay was the only chance the Cons had going against T2. The more I hear the more I believe Erin was the right choice.

#158 Shirl Clarts on 09.04.20 at 1:22 pm

#141 Stoph on 09.04.20 at 10:43 am

BTW: a $560k mortgage amortized over 15 years at 3.5% is $4k/month – doable for a professional couple.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Hey Sugarcoat,
Sure, but 5 year fixed rates in 2005 were 5.99%, so maybe they got around 5%.

And they make 160K in 2020. They were probably only making half that in 2005.
And you didn’t consider taxes, insurance, maintenance, utilities.

They had help, in a big way… somehow.

Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-210-x/2010000/t098-eng.htm

#159 DON on 09.04.20 at 1:23 pm

#113 the Jaguar on 09.03.20 at 11:24 pm
@#104 DON on 09.03.20 at 9:52 pm
@ The Jag

I get your point, come the autumn flu season. But fear seems to be stronger than logic. And then there’s the human nature dimension. ++++

Gotcha, but wouldn’t that imply that the ‘fear factor’ would align with the masks, sanitizing, social distancing, and hand washing? Just one more protective factor (?). Not good for the economy as the fear factor keeps people out of airplanes, restaurants, concert and sports venues, but the more people hunker down at home with Netflix, the less germs are being spread. My observation is that six months in to this crisis we know a great deal more about what we need to focus on. McDonalds is serving up Canadian beef again, the seniors homes issue is also under control, so if we are having significant ‘outbreaks’ let’s have an honest discussion about where and why. Density is clearly the issue whether in cities, homes, religious gatherings, or other gatherings. We also need to get serious about the analysis of the numbers. Example: As at August 31:
Alberta:13,902 cases, 239 deaths, 44 in hospital 8 in ICU.

BC: 5790 cases, 208 deaths, 28 in hospital, 10 in ICU.

Tests performed: Alberta – 767,296 BC 366,635

We out tested you by more than half, which has to account for a good portion of the number of cases discovered. What is really revealing and requires more analysis is where the case counts are highest, i.e. neighbourhoods with higher density households, i.e. east of the Deerfoot in Calgary, and North Van, Surrey, and Abbotsford in lower mainland. If health authorities want to be taken seriously they have to address cause and effect. There is just too much at stake given we cannot afford any further lockdowns. Some businesses are at the end of their rope. It’s now up to all of us to use everything we have learned to get back to full safety levels.

***********
Sound and reasonable logic.

You are right we do need to get things going. The economy was already wavering a year ago. The pendemic kicked it off the cliff.

I don’t think the irrational fear has left the building yet, going into the mouldy coastal autumn in BC. Just read some reasearch about mouldy conditions and COVID spreading. Will be tough to differentiate between the yearly bastard flu and the new virus. I agree no lock down just take the appropriate precautions.

I am leaving the door open to human nature over reacting.

For me, I am desperately trying to train the dogs to keep the kids 2 meters away from me this flu season. I think they are on strike cause they do it for my wife.

Have a good day….hopefully soon you will be able to take those trips.

#160 Re elect NO ONE on 09.04.20 at 1:34 pm

The arrogance T2 and Freeland makes me think they are untouchable. Or the NDP has already been bought.

Count the lies:
“To [the] question about decarbonization as part of our economic plan going forward: Of course, it has to be part of it,” Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Parliament Hill shortly after she was sworn in as Bill Morneau’s replacement. “I think all Canadians understand that the restart of our economy needs to be green. It also needs to be equitable. It needs to be inclusive. And we need to focus very much on jobs and growth.”

#161 the Jaguar on 09.04.20 at 1:50 pm

#157 Don Guillermo on 09.04.20 at 1:15 pm

I thought MacKay was a ‘shoo in’ for the leadership because as Garth has hinted, he was the most ‘centrist’ of the candidates, which was needed for a win against the Liberals.

But as we see south of our borders, people are seriously ticked off at woke sentiments, defund police sentiment, and let us not forget our own form of ‘peaceful protests’ last year when national rail lines were blocked.
Given the daily headlines south of the border and here in our own country the ‘voting public’ just might be ready for an approach to some problems that is a little right of center. Look no further than Jason Luan’s recent stance here in Alberta refusing to pay for drugs for addicts. Alberta will spend its money on rehabilitation instead.
They are still looking for the 1.6 million that went missing in Lethbridge. Things are not always as they seem, and ‘Objects in the rear view mirror are closer than they appear.’

Interesting, but not the reason O’Toole won. Of the four candidates, three were socons, and O’Toole consolidated those votes. Do not mistake this as being representative of mainstream small-c conservative thought. The path to electoral victory does not lean to the right in Canada. You shall see. MacKay had a far better chance of winning government. Politics is mathematics. – Garth

#162 Damifino on 09.04.20 at 6:36 pm

It’s hard to overstate how colossally misguided is the Liberal green fantasy. Sadly, there’s nothing I can do but watch as our country’s fabulous potential is squandered on ill conceived, punishingly expensive half baked plans to raise unicorns and harvest fairy dust.

I now know how helpless some of the folks in the Weimar Republic must have felt as they watched rationality shrinking in the rear view mirror.

Of course, I’ll still vote for my conservative candidate in Vancouver Center, then I’ll watch as do-nothing Hedy Fry takes the seat for the tenth time.

On the bright side, The Liberals will probably consume the NDP, effectively concentrating the wide-eyed gullibles in a single echo chamber.

That will slightly improve the political landscape.

#163 SJF in 312 on 09.05.20 at 12:48 am

As a long time reader, I miss the comments of BOOM!
Rest easy Roy.

M58IL

#164 Mary on 09.05.20 at 11:18 am

The friendship connection is very real! Especially if the child has a personality that finds it hard to make friends or struggles in general with friendships. From my experience I wish I hadn’t put ‘cheaper bigger house & more cash flow’ ahead of the things that truly makes us happy & that’s ‘relationships’ My daughter has suffered terribly since our move I wish I I could go back in time. Everyone said she’s ‘so outgoing and friendly she’ll have no problem making new friends’ Unfortunately she was never able to replace the ‘soul mate’ of a friend that she left behind & had known since preschool. My advice is know the personality of your kids and if they have serious ties to really close friends no amount of money in the world can take the pain away of seeing your child lonely and depressed