America update

RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
.

Some of you may be wondering how the heck have the markets recovered so strongly and the S&P 500 recently making a new all-time high, when the US/global economy is still mired in the worst economic downturn in decades. Well the answer is actually quite simple – the unprecedented government stimulus that has been injected into the system and that the US/global economy looks to have bottomed and is slowly turning around.

I’ve been very fortunate over my career to have worked with and been mentored by a number of brilliant and experienced investment professionals. One of those was our old Chief US Investment Strategist out of St Petersburg, FL, Jeff Sault, who not only is an interesting and entertaining guy (I did a road show with him across Canada and boy do I have some good stories from that trip!), but is also a market genius and someone I learned a lot from.

One particular piece of market wisdom was, “Ryan, markets don’t care whether the economy is good or bad, they care whether things are getting better or worse”. Meaning it’s not about the actual number (i.e., the US unemployment rate is at 10%), it’s whether the unemployment rate is moving from 10% to 9%. In the business we call this “second derivative” change and as I’ll cover today, the US economy is rebounding, which in part explains why the markets have recovered so strongly in recent months.

As Covid-19 worsened and morphed into a global pandemic, the global economy was brought to its knees as governments around the world enforced unprecedented lockdown measures to help contain the breakout. As a consequence millions of people lost their jobs, whole industries have been rocked and we’re stuck in the deepest economic downturn in many decades. But, the worst looks to be behind us.

In recent months we’ve seen a sharp rebound in major components of the US economy. For example, the US housing market is roaring back with housing starts rising by 22% M/M in July, housing sentiment among builders is at the highest level in years, and new home sales up 14% M/M in the latest report.

Manufacturing is also on the mend with the ISM manufacturing index jumping to 54.2 in July, now indicating expansion in the US manufacturing sector. Some of this is being driven by the US auto sector, which saw monthly production surge from just 1,800 units in April to over 140,000 in June.

While important areas like the travel and leisure industry continue to feel a lot of pain, other key areas like housing, manufacturing and retail sales are showing real strength, suggesting to us, the worst may be behind us.

US Housing and Manufacturing Are Surging Back

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

All of this is then being reflected in the GDP data. In the second quarter we saw the US economy contract by an unprecedented 33% Q/Q annualized. To put this print into context, my data goes back to 1950 and the next worse quarterly GDP figure was -10% in Q1 of 1958. This number is borderline apocalyptic and illustrates just how much the US economy has been impacted by this pandemic.

But I believe that Q2 may represent the low in this downturn, and see the US economy returning to growth in the third quarter. Currently consensus estimates point to a 20% rebound in Q3 and 6% growth for Q4.

The recovery is not going to be perfect and there will be setbacks along the way, but based on what I’m seeing in the current economic data, and my expectations going forward, I believe we’ve hit the low in this economic downturn.

US Economy Is Expected to Return to Growth in Q3

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

While I’m optimistic for a return to growth in the coming quarters there remain a number challenges to the global economy that could imperil the recovery. As I’ve been telling clients in our market updates I see three key risks to our outlook:

First, and stating the obvious is the next phase of this virus. As the global economy reopens and we begin interacting more closely and freguently with eachother, it’s only logical that we could see a ramp up of infection rates. The virus is no less contagious today and with us heading into the flu season, this fall/winter could prove to be a difficult time. If we were to see a massive increase in Covid infection rates and deaths, this could cause government officials to slowdown reopening measures, hampering the recovery and our call for a return to growth. Our base case view is we just work through the increases in rates, as the economic toll is just too grave.

Second are all the bankrupties that are likey to occur. J Crew, Chesapeake Energy, and Hertz to name just a few that have filed for Chapter 7 and many more are expected to do the same in the months ahead. Edward Altman, an expert on corporate bankruptcy, sees bankrucptices from this downturn eclipsing that seen durign the financial crsis. And it is estimated that 30-50% of all restuarants and bars could go under as a result of this pandemic. That will mean a lot of lost jobs and income for millions of people.

Lastly, I believe more government assistance is likely needed in the US as the employment insurance $600 top-up has expired and many Americans have already blow through their one-time $1,200 government payment.

Below is a chart of US personal income, which includes all the wages and salaries, investment income and government benefits that Americans receive in total. Note the dip, then surge in income as the US government dolled out billions of financial assistance for millions who were let go from their jobs. Without this, consumer spending would have collapsed and the US economy would have been even harder hit than the -33% contraction. Now much of this assistance has rolled off as the two parties were unable to reach an agreement on a second stimulus plan. Without another round of support this could signficantly weigh on consumer spending and the recovery in the coming quarters.

While there are clear risks to the economy and markets, as there always is, I see more pluses than minuses and see the US economy slowly recovering in the coming quarters.

US Income Has Been Supported by Government Assistance

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

108 comments ↓

#1 akashic record on 08.29.20 at 9:03 am

Totalitarian regimes had brainwashing at companies, like this.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sandia-labs-goes-nuclear-employee-who-sparked-internal-revolt-over-critical-race-theory

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.29.20 at 9:12 am

While I like the idea that the US economy(and the markets) is rebounding.
My pessimistic , nagging inner voice tells me its all due to govt stimulus cheques….and not much more.
And when the govt music stops, we’ll realize all the chairs are wobbly , creaky,and too frail to sit on without collapsing….
Time and Trump’s exodus….will tell

#3 Economist on 08.29.20 at 9:42 am

USA has an actual economy, Canada doesn’t.

#4 The TRUMP Pandemic/Depression on 08.29.20 at 9:44 am

me thinks the “liberate Michigan, liberate Virginian and so on along with the now open-the-schools will bring the US even closer to out-of-control virus of which all jobs depend… the US is by no means past anything that looks like any form of control after all chaos is trump’s only tool… and damn doesn’t he use it well

#5 mycomicshop on 08.29.20 at 10:10 am

lol.. hilarious… with the FED buying everything, things are getting better. lol. wow. can’t wait to start getting paid to stay home with printed money. great economy. no inflation. stocks going up. no problems. US Debt to GDP over 130% not including state and local governments, not including social security and healthcare obligations… lol. let’s print some more.

oh, wait, things are getting better…

#6 willworkforpickles on 08.29.20 at 10:29 am

I posted a message here in the last week of March of that first massive round of stimulus in how it would mainly reignite the beaten down market. Didn’t seem to matter to anyone then…not Garth or anyone posting on this MB seemed interested until about a month past the historic decline where the bulk of that announced infusion would or actually find its way to.
Took a while for that one to grab hold of some attention.

#7 Re: Economist #3 on 08.29.20 at 10:50 am

USA …

Made in America. Jobs. Lower taxes. Balanced trade. Secure borders. Energy independence.

Vs Canada …

Transgender bathrooms. Cat doors for the governor general. Surrendering on the USMCA. Multi colored socks. Kayaking in Victoria.

#8 Armpit on 08.29.20 at 10:56 am

This Covid has awaken many baby boomers on the cusp of Retirement to do just that. Of course, only if they are financially ready / and prepared to do so. If not, they will die working.

In a matter of time, there will be more jobs available.

#9 YouKnowWho on 08.29.20 at 11:04 am

Of course economies are rebounding. They were shut down and closed for months.

What kind of a rebound will this be…I’m not sure we know yet. We’re about to find out before the year is out.

#10 Nottawa Housing Bust on 08.29.20 at 11:18 am

Ryan,

Great post. Excellent explanation regarding what markets indicate, vs what is happening. A couple of points missing here:

1. If Economy is recovering so well, why are Interest rates at historical lows? Should we see inflation?
2. The S&P is only advancing based on a few tech stocks. Most stocks are flat or down for the year and have been trailing off for some time now.
3. If you were to take away the trillions spent by US Gov in last 6 months, I think the story plays out differently. Another example of things are not rosy.
4. The US is literally heading to a civil war on a weekly basis. Protests are ongoing and becoming more violent.

These are just a few observations from a comment in Canada. And doesn’t even begin to discuss the fact Canadian Bank profits are results of lowered loan loss provisions and not any real growth or profit in markets.

Something smells fishy with the whole state of things.

#11 quick question on 08.29.20 at 11:18 am

quick question Ryan,

what happens when the FED stops printing trillions to support the stock market? and to buy US debt, since nobody else will… because, i’ll bet, when that happens, stocks crater.

what happens if they don’t stop? and in a few months, their balance sheet is at $10T, and next year, $15%, and the year after that, $25T?

or are governments on the verge of cutting back spending and balancing their budgets, along with massively raising taxes both personal and corporate to pay back the debt?

#12 TurnerNation on 08.29.20 at 11:29 am

When will Toronto Blue Jays baseball team be coming back? More to the point why were they barred from the country? Was it to ‘keep us safe’ or..
Late last year — I believe — likely in Toronto Star a news article appeared. Said that their stadium the Rogers Centre (nee Skydome) was at the end of its lifespan.

How convenient the stadium is empty now?
If all wars are fought over LAND and we are in WW3 that stadium sits on a juicy plot no?
Directly in front of it at 325 Front St is set to be torn down, into giant towers.

I’m calling this the biggest asset grab since 2008. And 2001. The war to end all wars?
That the Crown Bankers are using the Crown Virus to take back Crown Land.

The spoils will be divided. Now do your part and Stay Apart divided and let them utterly pillage us.
Wear your Freedom Mask in the hope your freedoms will be restored. Not until you submit further. Likely a CV religion Caste-system is coming. Those with the mark and those without. Always we must be divided. This is war.

#13 Dr V on 08.29.20 at 11:42 am

“In the business we call this ‘second derivative’
change”

Looks like a first derivative to me. Graph number of unemployed vs total workforce. Slope (first derivative) is positive when number of unemployed increases.

Second derivative is change of slope of first derivative. Zero value of first derivative indicates either maximum unemployment (second derivative is negative) or minimum unemployment ( second derivative is positive).

The second derivative can be positive and it could mean either “things are getting better more quickly” or “things are getting worse but not as quickly” but it doesn’t necessarily tell us how good or bad things are
to start with.

#14 Tarot Card on 08.29.20 at 11:43 am

Good post Ryan
Thanks again Garth for this blog

Yes the future
I like disagreeing for some positive discussion
Shall we begin?
On point one
Virus will return
I agree we will have this virus a long time, but think about it all the new cases in BC are related to bars or outbreaks at chicken Plants and then related families.
Not community spreads per se

Think of all the travelling this summer we did not see large outbreaks? Ask yourselves why?

The key to this virus and economic recovery is a rapid test that is easy to self administer and results in minutes. A vaccine is not the answer.

Another interesting statistic I saw, because, we are whiping down suffices like grocery carts, all other illnesses are dropping. So there will not be a second wave as we are very aware and very clean.

Second point while I agree bankruptcies are disturbing especially to small businesses I believe this will create restructuring in industries that will create new opportunities for those who are willing to invest.
If an airline went bankrupt there will be lots of cheap aeroplanes for a new airline to purchase, same goes for cruise ships.
The future is bright for those with vision.

Third point
Government stimulus
The government was totally wrong in giving free money
I agree one month until we figured out the right choices.

Imagine we hired 10,000 Mexicans to pick fruit. Canadians should have demanded CERB receiver go out in the fields and work!

Next,
then we should have given everyone a job building our decaying infrastructure. Give everyone a shovel.
Meaningful work for money instead of millions of people sitting at home buying from Amazon.

Have a great weekend!

#15 MF on 08.29.20 at 11:47 am

Re: Economist #3 on 08.29.20 at 10
Economist on 08.29.20 at 9:42

Haha. Trans bathrooms?

Guess these two clowns haven’t been paying attention.

The left in the US makes our own NDP blush.

The recent riots and protests are a result of the volatile mix of 1) growing inequality 2) violent culture 3) a huge drift towards radicalism on all sides down south. 4) leftover wounds from slavery.

Conrad Black’s article in the National Post a few months ago said it all. The United States has a culture that allows the most ambitious, smart, and usually egotistical/maniacal to succeed immensely, while those who are not up to snuff get pulverized into powder, and
more and more people are getting pulverized.

Trans bathrooms? Lol who cares.

MF

#16 Gino on 08.29.20 at 11:52 am

Ryan, I am confused. You mentioned the markets are slowly getting better but we still need stimulus? Does that not indicate it’s getting worse or stagnate? Also, you mentioned we hit a bottom but is it a false bottom? The CB around the world injected trillions of stimulus as you mentioned without it we may not have hit bottom yet – so it’s a false bottom as a result (a manufactured one even).

Thanks

#17 KNOW IT ALL on 08.29.20 at 11:53 am

STAY IN CASH!

…..AND WAIT FOR THE CRASH!

This one’s going to be EPIC!!

#18 Dr V on 08.29.20 at 12:06 pm

2 Fartz – I took some US off the table to pay for some expenses. Better than drawing wage from corporate and paying full marginal rate. Apparently the bulk of
the US index improvement was due to tech. Rest of
economy was slow.

6 pickles – I chased the market down with larger purchases but prepared for a 40+% melt that never materialized. Also never got the “dead cat bounce”.
Still did OK so took a few gains as per above. You never know when it’s truly the bottom.

#19 Steve on 08.29.20 at 12:10 pm

One time trade.

All from Albertamerica can leave. All across Canada, anyone who wants to move to the USA – no paperwork, no green card. Just a one time deal.

Anyone who is tired of the Trump Dump can immigrate to Canada. Essentially a trade. Doesn’t have to be one for one. Just a single time, open window.

Both countries would be better off. The actual numbers would likely be surprising.

#20 Quintilian on 08.29.20 at 12:13 pm

Canada has some real challenges.
Some regional economies rely heavily on natural resources which requires real demand that can’t be created by the Central Bank printing more money.

Some of the provincial economies are addicted to cheap credit, money laundering, and the housing bubble that has resulted from it.

When the consumer debt binge ends, the hangover begins.

Long term, it will be good, we may just go back to building a stronger more stable and sustainable economy.

But then again, the real economy and the stock exchange are two different things.

#21 Dogman01 on 08.29.20 at 12:33 pm

Hi I just wanted to repeat these point laid out so simply and concise:

#136 James on 08.27.20 at 11:40 pm
– The whole point of what they are doing is to inflate away the debt.
– When inflation picks up, they will only do token interest rate hikes to make it look like they are trying to curb it. In reality, inflation will come extremely hard and purchasing power down.
– Going to really suck for the average working person as they won’t be getting pay raises even close to matching what the inflation will be.
– Yet again, standard of living will go down.
– House prices and the stock market will stay high as the best places for purchasing power preservation.
———————————————————-

The standard of living has been dropping for the past three decades, that trend will continue.
– off shoring of good jobs
– Technology eliminating good jobs
– Mass immigration to preserve the “reserve army of labour”
– Wage stagnation due to abundant labour, Inflation and more competition for the remaining “good jobs”
This lowing of the standard of living creates a much more dependent, fragile and compliant population.
Cui Bono

#22 Beta Dog on 08.29.20 at 12:37 pm

Felt like I needed to build something useful to help save the world during these tumultuous times and provide us with insight into our future wealth. Lots of inputs to play with once in the app. I’ve just launched it, so don’t bite too hard if it breaks. Lol.

https://www.imfingo.com

#23 Wrk.dover on 08.29.20 at 1:09 pm

It’s pile on Ryan day!

#24 TurnerNation on 08.29.20 at 1:30 pm

The state of retail: seen on an open high street shop door. “Please wait here for an Aritzia heath & safety advisor before entering the store”.
Laugh or cry? Corps enforcement of the new system.
Be helpless. Dependent. CERB.
The global government shut down your store and way of life. Only the New System may provide for you. But you must submit to the new CV religion and rituals and protocols. Master them.
School children will be taught this hard this fall. Schools turned into prison medical wards.

Every leader is 100% on board and supporting the New System. Have you heard them complain or stand up for you?

#25 Don Guillermo on 08.29.20 at 1:41 pm

#19 Steve on 08.29.20 at 12:10 pm
One time trade.

All from Albertamerica can leave. All across Canada, anyone who wants to move to the USA – no paperwork, no green card. Just a one time deal.

Anyone who is tired of the Trump Dump can immigrate to Canada. Essentially a trade. Doesn’t have to be one for one. Just a single time, open window.

Both countries would be better off. The actual numbers would likely be surprising
****************************************

Your Alberta hate makes you sound like a sad pathetic little man.

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.29.20 at 1:45 pm

@#24 TurnerNation
““Please wait here for an Aritzia heath & safety advisor before entering the store”.”

++++

Well.
Look on the bright side.
It cuts down on the shoplifting.

#27 Steerage Calculus on 08.29.20 at 1:47 pm

#13 Dr V on 08.29.20 at 11:42 am

“In the business we call this ‘second derivative’
change”

Looks like a first derivative to me. Graph number of unemployed vs total workforce. Slope (first derivative) is positive when number of unemployed increases.

Second derivative is change of slope of first derivative. Zero value of first derivative indicates either maximum unemployment (second derivative is negative) or minimum unemployment ( second derivative is positive).

The second derivative can be positive and it could mean either “things are getting better more quickly” or “things are getting worse but not as quickly” but it doesn’t necessarily tell us how good or bad things are
to start with.

Yup.. Ryan must have been asleep that day in class!

second derivative tells you is it stable or unstable!

#28 MF on 08.29.20 at 1:49 pm

#21 Dogman01 on 08.29.20 at 12:33

There is no mass immigration bud. Immigration has held steady for, like you said, decades.

At my workplace, a large chunk of our customers are new and recent immigrants.

Meaning,

That expanding labour pool you tried to paint as a negative is also the same pool that provides for a growing customer base for businesses.

MF

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.29.20 at 1:50 pm

Just when I thought the CBC was totally irrelevant ….

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1600428611842

#30 Scott in Gibsons on 08.29.20 at 1:52 pm

DELETED

#31 Sara on 08.29.20 at 2:02 pm

So I guess moving to low volatility ETFs was a mistake.

#32 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.29.20 at 2:02 pm

I can’t wait to read the comments of the Millennials’ children and grandchildren when they take the reigns and get to complain about how the Millenials had it so easy. Ultra low interest rates, instant millionaires from housing, WFH, government stimulus out the wazoo…

It will make for a fun daily read.

#33 Truth Teller on 08.29.20 at 2:02 pm

So CERB has just been renamed EI?

Still nobody needs to work, they just lie and say theY “looked” for work.

#34 Unstable Genius on 08.29.20 at 2:07 pm

The orange dude is a perfect example of a negative second derivative – unstable!

#35 Dogman01 on 08.29.20 at 2:26 pm

#28 MF on 08.29.20 at 1:49 pm

Mass immigration a as well as TFW maintains an oversupply of labour and helps keep wages low.

Simple supply and demand in a labour market ..bud.

Yes more customers, an argument can be made regarding stagnating Canadian population growth.

If Immigration (not refugees) was tied to domestic unemployment rate it might be more palatable.

For now it seem to be a method to keep domestic labour at low cost and hence low pay and hence lower standard of living.

#36 dr talc on 08.29.20 at 2:38 pm

TN said-
Directly in front of it at 325 Front St is set to be torn down, into giant towers.

I’m calling this the biggest asset grab since 2008. And 2001. The war to end all wars?
That the Crown Bankers are using the Crown Virus to take back Crown Land.


A dome stadium where all activities are prohibited.
In Communitarian lingo I think they call it an opportunity zone. But not for the little guy.
Small business gets ordered out of business to make way for more opportunity zones. Note to Ontario businesses: you got the shaft, but well connected condo developers get the gold mine. When Doug Ford says “I’ve got your back”, he has a knife

#37 Ryan Lewenza on 08.29.20 at 2:40 pm

Nottawa Housing Bust “ Ryan, Great post. Excellent explanation regarding what markets indicate, vs what is happening. A couple of points missing here:

1. If Economy is recovering so well, why are Interest rates at historical lows? Should we see inflation?
2. The S&P is only advancing based on a few tech stocks. Most stocks are flat or down for the year and have been trailing off for some time now.
3. If you were to take away the trillions spent by US Gov in last 6 months, I think the story plays out differently. Another example of things are not rosy.
4. The US is literally heading to a civil war on a weekly basis. Protests are ongoing and becoming more violent.“

On question 1, rates remain at record lows due to Fed Funds Rate at just 0.25% and Fed is aggressively buying longer term Treasuries. Not much inflation at present but it will come. On point 2, yes the S&P 500 is being driven by a handful of tech stocks. But as recovery picks up this will widen out with banks, cyclicals and other stocks moving higher. Agree on point 3. If no stimulus no new all time highs. But they are adding stimulus and stocks are reacting so that’s what I care about. On point 4, I’m worried too about the civil unrest. The November election will be key to where this goes post election. – Ryan L

#38 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 08.29.20 at 2:40 pm

Thank all Dogs that the CPC, with a little help from the Qanon Detective Agency, have uncovered Freeland’s evil plot to sacrifice Canada on the altar of the NWO.

This dingbat was formerly the Minister for Nat Rev, and Associate Minister of Defence.

O’Toole has his work cut out for him, carting this kind loony baggage into a possible election.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KerryLynneFindl/status/1299721248948121601

#39 Ryan Lewenza on 08.29.20 at 2:45 pm

Sara “ So I guess moving to low volatility ETFs was a mistake.”

Not necessarily. Low vol ETFs have a lot of interest sensitive stocks. I see rates remaining low so this is good for interest sensitives and low vol ETFs. Also we remain in a highly volatile environment. Low vol helps us hedge against this. So we still have one low vol ETF but we have been adding to some higher risk positions given our outlook for a recovery. It’s all about balance and diversification. – Ryan L

#40 Bill on 08.29.20 at 2:48 pm

#34 Unstable Genius

You need to remove Genius from your handle.
So just who do you think should TRY to run the country?
Do you have a clue of all the others backgrounds?
I do and they are either evil or clueless or both. Socialism is the plan.
The US of A will blow up or shale I say is blowing up.
The plan was to divide the people…so far so good.
Destabilize and concur. This is not anything new if one knows his history. There’s a bigger plan in play. The media is absolutely Bunk. That’s why some are rich and some are poor. Sheep are easily manipulated.
We better pray that they don’t blow up because if they do….I know what happens here in Kanada.
Trudeau is already implementing his new commie design.
EI ” oh I looked for a job”….here’s your cheque.
NO QUESTIONS ASKED
That’s how you get reelected.
Ill mention something on Central bank inflation target. THEY DONT GIVE A RATS right now for various reasons I don’t have time to state.
IM AGAINST SOCIALISM IN A HUGE WAY. T2 is a dick.
I’m going to hook up the RV and fill it full of booze and wieners.
Retired at 50 with millions and I’m bloody proud of it..

#41 DON on 08.29.20 at 2:49 pm

Banks are resuming their pre-covid layoffs.

Now more Boeing layoffs.

Now MGM and CocaCola is laying off employees.

I’m and with crowded…my inner sense is that the pain is still to come.

Banks are worried about souring loans ans condumer loans are problematic.

All this is built on peak household and consumer. debt.

Lots of used toys coming on the market soon. Gotta wonder how many people have been tapping into household equity and for what exactly.

#42 Ryan Lewenza on 08.29.20 at 2:55 pm

Gino “Ryan, I am confused. You mentioned the markets are slowly getting better but we still need stimulus? Does that not indicate it’s getting worse or stagnate? Also, you mentioned we hit a bottom but is it a false bottom? The CB around the world injected trillions of stimulus as you mentioned without it we may not have hit bottom yet – so it’s a false bottom as a result (a manufactured one even).
Thanks“

Yes things are getting better but we’re far from good. Just like 2008/09 crisis, we saw numerous rounds of stimulus/QE to fully revive the economy until it was strong enough to stand on its own without the stimulus. In the US I see the need for another round of fiscal stimulus as the labour market needs more time to heal and add back workers. So the patient is recovering but still needs attention/medicine. Regarding a “false bottom”, I can’t debate counterfactual arguments. The CBs did inject trillions of stimulus, which helped turn around economy and markets. I would rather make money for my clients than debate the philosophical merits of central bank stimulus. – Ryan L

#43 Brian Ripley on 08.29.20 at 2:56 pm

EMPLOYMENT Chart in Canada since 1976

http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html#Profile

Older part time workers in Canada, 45 and older, both men and women, want work. That trend accelerated for men after the equities crash of 2000 and for women after the 2008 housing crash.

When balance sheets approach a negative state, additional income becomes a major household requirement and in 2019, household debt, both by loans and mortgages grew to record levels.

DEBT Chart: http://www.chpc.biz/household-debt.html

This current rush to bid up real estate values in hot markets reminds me of the late 1970’s early 80’s except that in this current time period, older workers have to take on part time work to keep their households afloat.

#44 Damifino on 08.29.20 at 2:56 pm

#14 Tarot Card

Give everyone a shovel.
——————————-

Bill Vanderzalm was Premier of British Columbia from 1986 to 1991. He said this (Wikipedia):

“If people are truly in need, they can expect and will be treated fairly and compassionately. If people are elderly we will treat them with respect and when in need reward them for their lifelong contributions. If people are handicapped they will be treated generously, hopefully even more so than in the past. But if someone is able to work and refuses to do so, they had best pick up a shovel or I’ll give them a shovel.”

Only four words from the above quote remain stuck in the minds of older British Columbians: “Pick up a shovel”. Still, even with his words taken out of context, I confess to a present day kinship with the former premiere, although I also admit, I detested the man when I was young and actually did a lot of shoveling.

Of course, that was a lifetime ago. A time when one man acting alone might accomplish something with a spade. Today hydrocarbon fueled machines move in ten seconds what a laborer with wheelbarrow once could in a day.

And this all says nothing of women. Specifically, the lazy ones. Should they also be picking up a shovel, or does the phrase apply to only half the potential work force?

It’s a tired idea. A cliche we cling to as the world moves away from grunt work that once constituted respectable employment only to leave in its wake a vacuum of redundancy for the unskilled.

“Pick up your shovel” loses most of its clout when everyone has already picked up a smart phone with which they do little that is ‘smart’ while being lulled into a belief they are, at least, great ‘communicators’.

Perhaps “Pick up your math” is a more appropriate call. Or “Pick up your vocational skills in those areas where ongoing demand exists”. Admittedly, not very catchy but now much more appropriate.

#45 Ryan Lewenza on 08.29.20 at 3:01 pm

quick question “ quick question Ryan, what happens when the FED stops printing trillions to support the stock market? and to buy US debt, since nobody else will… because, i’ll bet, when that happens, stocks crater.“

When Fed announces end to bond buying program equity markets will drop. No different then when they go from cutting rates to hiking rates. But the US economy should then be strong enough to stand on its own two feet, and equities will then stabilize and move higher as corporate profits improve. This is exactly what we saw in the last downturn and recovery. – Ryan L

#46 Dr V on 08.29.20 at 3:03 pm

31 Sara – if you invest index you capture the good and the bad and all the volatility. I think the lo-vol serves as a nice complement to the “dumb growth” of the index. Both did well so I took gains from each. My lo-vol is about half US half international and outperformed my intl index fund.

#47 Ronaldo on 08.29.20 at 3:05 pm

#33 Truth Teller on 08.29.20 at 2:02 pm
So CERB has just been renamed EI?

Still nobody needs to work, they just lie and say theY “looked” for work.
————————————————————
As they ‘lie’ on a beach in Hawaii.

#48 IGV on 08.29.20 at 3:05 pm

I always love reading “the market does not care about the economy”

That is typically the absolute top. “Different this time”. When the market is being reverse engineered to suite the reading.

P/E, market breadth, market valuations, saturation of a few companies. All tossed out the window. Why? Because all the metrics up to now would say sell as fast as you can.

Makes me more an more confident shorting the market. Appreciate the post Ryan.

#49 Camille on 08.29.20 at 3:17 pm

Thank you Ryan for this excellent informative post. I hope you are correct and the risks are finally mitigated, like the recent hurricane scare! You provide a view on how the future may unfold, and provide charts to support your analysis, but humbly I subconsciously review it, and given so many moving interconnected parts in the economy, reflectivity, convexivity, policy responses, etc., I wonder what it all means?
Then I read again and see you are addressing how the US stock market can be doing well given a morose real (current) US GDP.

My question is (and I know you’ve had similar queries before), why the focus on the US (but you only mentioned S&P once)? Are you implying if the US rises, the so goes Canada?

#50 Barb on 08.29.20 at 3:30 pm

Our daughter in Kelowna recently saw a U-Haul.
With Florida plates.

#51 Cesar Chavez on 08.29.20 at 3:46 pm

#14 Tarot Card on 08.29.20 at 11:43 am

“Imagine we hired 10,000 Mexicans to pick fruit. Canadians should have demanded CERB receiver go out in the fields and work!”
—————————————————————–
Whaaaat??? You want the CERBians to do physical labour? You cruel monster you…

#52 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 08.29.20 at 3:57 pm

Our daughter in Kelowna recently saw a U-Haul.
With Florida plates.

/////////

U-haul routinely license and insure their vehicles in low-cost states, regardless of where the vehicles operate.

#53 Joseph R. on 08.29.20 at 4:00 pm

#40 Bill on 08.29.20 at 2:48 pm

“The plan was to divide the people…so far so good.
Destabilize and concur. This is not anything new if one knows his history”

That’s the Trump Administration in a nutshell. It’s slogan highlights it well: America is BAD in the present form and we choose to go back to some “lost paradise”.

#54 MF on 08.29.20 at 4:49 pm

#35 Dogman01 on 08.29.20 at 2:26 pm

Again, like I said earlier, there is no “mass” immigration.

Don’t agree?

Here is a chart of immigrant numbers coming to Canada for over a hundred years:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-630-x/11-630-x2016006-eng.htm

-You can see the highest “mass” immigration we’ve ever had actually was around 1910, and that current immigration levels are similar to what they were in the early 1900’s, the 1950’s and the 1970’s.

-The TFW program is more often than not a pathway into permanent residency. Most of the TFW programs have people come to Canada, work jobs that most Canadians don’t want, and then allow them to apply to stay for good.

Here’s the GDP of Canada over time:

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/gdp

-Clearly historical/current immigration levels aren’t slowing the growth of the country. They are adding to it.

The standard of living argument is a result of other factors (globalization, technology) than anything else.

Going to work at the local factory with no education is an outdated model from a bygone era that isn’t coming back. Allowing young entrepreneurs with knowledge of technology into our country is what we need. Actually, this is what has been happening in Toronto over the last 10 years. It’s slowly become an international attraction for sought after young tech talent, as an example.

The positives of immigration are there. You just have to look.

MF

#55 Bent outta shape on 08.29.20 at 5:30 pm

Ryan … what are your thoughts on the price of assets held by REITs, lets say multi-unit residentials, for example.

Obviously, the lower cost of borrowing means refinancing can shave considerable expenses for those operating the properties plus it means potential suitors can afford more product for their money. Additionally, I would expect that vacancy rates should trend downwards moderately as a result of additional families needing to secure accommodations if they lose their home. Of course these are other factors to consider to the contrary.

Please show your work….

#56 Phillip Huggan on 08.29.20 at 5:31 pm

I think we need improved nanotechnologies pertaining to endocytosis of pathogens such as Covid, as well as for iron particles. London has found Covid breaks vessel strings that prevent platelets from clumping. I don’t think we have good enough enforcement of good researcher numbers, to now attempt to genetically engineer new strings on us mid-disease. I do think we should use nanotechnology and weaker biomimetics to make novel phagocytes or otherwise “poison” containers, that can be safely streamed out without causing bladder disease. I also think we need to use MPI to pick good leaders and come together for good decisions. Iron oxide is toxic, so it needs to be a more fragile magnet and/or we need a better way of eliminating from our bodies. The easy system is to select health advisors who do well in wild disease simulations. The next pandemic might have an initial r0 of 8 and be 20% lethal, unless we consume synthetic endocytosis particles beforehand. Synthetic biology and/or gene therapy on the other hand might produce disease effects that can’t be engulfed as a cure.

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.29.20 at 5:57 pm

#25 Don Guillermo on 08.29.20 at 1:41 pm
#19 Steve on 08.29.20 at 12:10 pm
One time trade.

All from Albertamerica can leave. All across Canada, anyone who wants to move to the USA – no paperwork, no green card. Just a one time deal.

Anyone who is tired of the Trump Dump can immigrate to Canada. Essentially a trade. Doesn’t have to be one for one. Just a single time, open window.

Both countries would be better off. The actual numbers would likely be surprising
****************************************

Your Alberta hate makes you sound like a sad pathetic little man.
——————–
Canada’s population would probably double.
Americans coming to Canada, tired of the violence and expensive health care system in the States.

#58 Midnights on 08.29.20 at 6:12 pm

Holy socialism.
https://www.680news.com/2020/08/28/ford-government-to-freeze-increases-for-rent-controlled-units-in-2021/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

#59 TurnerNation on 08.29.20 at 6:14 pm

What would Nonna Nicola say in this times?? Buy, Sell or Uppa?

The state of things:
Our elites are not letting up. Lockdowns into 2022 as more the New System is rolled out. Just ask Un Free Land what’s coming. The new chosen executrix. Off with their weds:
Of course you get CV while at weddings. Always the fun stuff. The homeless and drug addict shelters in my area tick along just fine in total squalor and filth. New drug addict centres are planned for crowded residential areas all over Toronto.
But if you sing dance, wed well.. See they exceeded the state’s super-scientific limit of 50 people by 15..and paid the price.
I saw someone today wearing an “OBEY” sweatshirt along with a mask. If they only knew.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/514284-number-of-coronavirus-cases-linked-to-maine-wedding-rises-to-123

–Remember, any tech they show us is already decades old and perfected on humans. This is just a stage show, a feel-good for the fans. I’ve been posting about Musk’s front company, Neuralink:
Headline:
“Elon Musk unveils pig with computer chip in brain”
“Tesla and SpaceX founder Elon Musk on Friday showcased pigs with computer chips in their brains during his unveiling of Neuralink, an upcoming technology aiming to bring symbiosis between artificial intelligence and the human brain.”

#60 TurnerNation on 08.29.20 at 6:23 pm

Question for Big Pharma, for the past 100 years globally we’ve (the general population) rallied to raise funds toward a “cure for cancer”.
Trillions of dollars probably by now. Untold billions each year. 100 years. In every country worldwide. Where’d it go to? So where is it?
People ask asking how they can some up with a magic CV cure so fast now. With their own funds. Not a penny from us.

Sigh, another year of me sponsoring friends in their ride for the cure (I do it because I like them and support their genuine efforts. Not a single one of us is untouched by cancer in our families), A cure in my lifetime? YAWN I don’t think so. 100 years later we got squat I ain’t waiting around. Fool me once.

#61 Tarot card on 08.29.20 at 6:48 pm

Damifino, Thanks for posting
Yes you are correct
Now thinking outside the box even if it takes 100 people a day to move what an excavator can do in an hour, are we still better off not putting people to work rather than sit at home?
I am old school and hard work means hard work.
I don’t have the answers but for my simple mind paying people to sit at home is dumb.
I never collected EI in my 40 years of working. Never collected welfare.
Another generation and another time.
What boggles my mind is employers begging people to work and people sticking up their noses why should I work.
Hence give them all a shovel.

I challenge anyone getting CERB to give a better response.

#62 Joshua Carriere, CMT on 08.29.20 at 6:57 pm

My pal Leon Tuey has mentioned Jeff Sault’s work. Now that you mention it as well I’ll have to take a close look.

#63 Do we have all the facts on 08.29.20 at 7:02 pm

While socialism has been held up as something to fear by many contributors to this blog the actions of Central banks over the past eight months fused our Keynesian market based economies with social democracy to create a form of market based socialism.

When Central banks use monetary policies to keep private companies from failing it may not be social ownership but it certainly represents social intervention with the objective of social justice.

As you pointed out a pure capitalist or free market system would have resulted in considerable hardship for millions of employees. I am sure that all employees exposed to the risk of unemployment would have voted for some form of social intervention by their governments.

#64 tccontrarian on 08.29.20 at 7:05 pm

“The recovery is not going to be perfect and there will be setbacks along the way, but based on what I’m seeing in the current economic data, and my expectations going forward, ……

…I believe we’ve hit the low in this economic downturn.”

/ / / / / / /

Apple has the Market Cap of the entire TSX I heard yesterday. Growth vs Value stock ratio at most extreme levels ever, and unemployment at historic highs.
About 30% of restaurants won’t make it to December with the distancing regulations, so more layoffs, etc etc

I think we’re at 2-3rd inning of the economic downturn and the CB keeping interest rates at zero is a testament of this reality. The thing is, they won’t be able to lower them any lower on the next sign of a slowing economy – which is likely to happen as soon the CERB and ‘free’ monnies thrown at … everyone and everything.

And you actually think we’ve hit ‘the low’ ????

We’ll just have to wait and see.

tcc

#65 Nonplused on 08.29.20 at 7:15 pm

It remains a mystery why personal income went up so much during the pandemic. Perhaps the government gave away a little more money than they needed to?

And yet people still aren’t paying the rent or mortgage. You give an inch they take a mile.

#66 Nonplused on 08.29.20 at 7:22 pm

#15 MF on 08.29.20 at 11:47 am

“Conrad Black’s article in the National Post a few months ago said it all. The United States has a culture that allows the most ambitious, smart, and usually egotistical/maniacal to succeed immensely, while those who are not up to snuff get pulverized into powder, and
more and more people are getting pulverized.”

—————–

Success is a system not a result. If you aren’t succeeding chances are there is something wrong with the system you are using. I am not saying your system needs to produce Jeff Bezos style wealth, that takes more than a little luck, but if you can’t even become a plumber or a teacher then you are doing it wrong.

#67 Ah Steerage on 08.29.20 at 7:30 pm

#44 Damifino on 08.29.20 at 2:56 pm

#14 Tarot Card

Give everyone a shovel.
——————————-

Bill Vanderzalm was Premier of British Columbia from 1986 to 1991. He said this (Wikipedia):…

Vander Zalm was hilarious… and he’s a CHEMTRAIL dude… what’s not to love

#68 Nonplused on 08.29.20 at 7:33 pm

#17 KNOW IT ALL on 08.29.20 at 11:53 am
STAY IN CASH!

…..AND WAIT FOR THE CRASH!

This one’s going to be EPIC!!

————————-

How do you know it won’t be the cash that crashes? This could be the real signal we are getting from the stock market and gold as well. Garth says no hyperinflation, and I tend to agree and hope he is right, but if Powell intends to make up for what he sees as a decade of below target inflation in the next few years the returns on cash are not going to be very good. Instead, what one should do is “buy all the things” which is what I believe we are seeing, both in the markets and at the RV dealership. Car sales are way off but that is because nobody is driving anywhere anymore. They should bounce back eventually but I think not for a while.

#69 Drinking on 08.29.20 at 7:40 pm

In all the years that I have been reading the greater fool and comments; todays are by far the best. I am reassured that so many are questioning what is really going on out there.

#70 Nonplused on 08.29.20 at 7:49 pm

#50 Barb on 08.29.20 at 3:30 pm
“Our daughter in Kelowna recently saw a U-Haul.
With Florida plates.”

Means nothing unless the tow vehicle (assuming it wasn’t a van) had Florida plates. U-Haul does not return their inventory to point of origin unless stocks get out of balance. Instead, if I rent a trailer to move from Calgary to Edmonton, the trailer stays in Edmonton and gets rented out in Edmonton until someone wants to move from Edmonton to Calgary. Then it finally goes home. So you can’t tell much from U-Haul plates. They can end up anywhere.

#71 CJohnC on 08.29.20 at 7:53 pm

#22 Beta Dog. Not to rain on your parade but your imfingo website does not seem to list any information about your organization. A well put together website but no information about who you or your group are, what are your credentials and affiliations.
Doesn’t inspire confidence

#72 Stone on 08.29.20 at 8:06 pm

#55 Bent outta shape on 08.29.20 at 5:30 pm
Ryan … what are your thoughts on the price of assets held by REITs, lets say multi-unit residentials, for example.

Please show your work….

———

I think Ryan’s giving you the finger right now. And that’s being nice.

Please show your work….

I can’t stop laughing. So rude! I think he has better things to do than to cater to your silly whims.

#73 TurnerNation on 08.29.20 at 8:44 pm

#69 Drinking don’t encourage us please ;).

Is this wrong?: when I see someone pull down their mask in public I seriously feel a strong urge to point and exclaim: “Madam/Sir!! The Corona virus is everywhere. In your hair. On your shoes. It doesn’t rest”
By any logic…
Totally sobar here.

Maybe they will decree all pets shorn bare…to prevent the curve. Or flatten the spread? I forget.

#74 Sergei Satoshi on 08.29.20 at 8:51 pm

The stock market will pump until the election. Not because the economy is getting better but because the fed is directly purchasing stocks. ANY economist that is honest would know this- buy physical silver, buy BITCOIN and RESEARCH AND BUY $chainlink. Then sit back for 1 year until the US dollar collapse get your dual Dominican passport and Retire. Not joking. Heard it here first- I was yelling at my friends to buy $link at $1.80 – 1 listened:)

#75 NoName on 08.29.20 at 8:59 pm

#70 Nonplused on 08.29.20 at 7:49 pm
#50 Barb on 08.29.20 at 3:30 pm
“Our daughter in Kelowna recently saw a U-Haul.
With Florida plates.”

All uhaul trucks have arizona plates, no florida. i rent a trailer few times a yaer from them but for life of me i am not sure what plate is on a trailers…

#76 Gary C on 08.29.20 at 9:27 pm

The Fed bailed out the stock markets, and threw some crumbs to Joe Sixpack as cover.bought corporate bonds so companies could continue to buy back their own stock.
This market is Fed driven, and they have to keep doing it
Or we get a total collapse.

I just keep moving up my stops on stocks Etfs, as this bubble will eventually burst, “when” no one knows.
The result of unlimited money creation will be a severe
erosion of purchasing power, and the debasement of all fiat currencies, your money will become worthless, as the stock market rises.

#77 45north on 08.29.20 at 9:47 pm

One particular piece of market wisdom was, “Ryan, markets don’t care whether the economy is good or bad, they care whether things are getting better or worse”.

okay, markets don’t care whether the economy is good or bad but I do. Here’s Hilliard MacBeth. He sites a Bank of Canada study done in May 2019. In it, the adverse scenario has a decline in GDP of -8.2%, duration of 7 quarters of negative growth, an increase of unemployment of 6.4%, peak unemployment rate of 12.6% and a house price correction of -40.9. Except for the house price correction, we’re already there.

https://www.howestreet.com/2020/08/the-worst-case-scenario-arrives/

Hilliard comes to the conclusion Canadian banks are unprepared in their provisions for the size of losses that appear in an average recession, much less the more severe one contemplated by the BOC.

But there’s something else. The author of the study, Charles Gaa has the house price correction at -40.9%. Right now in Ottawa, I’d say it was more like +20%. What is going on? It feels like the government has pumped so much money into the economy that everyone is fooled. Stores are still open, buses are running, people are paying their rent. I’ve got my own conclusion. The banks are not waiting for Hilliard MacBeth to tell them they’re unprepared. They’re going to crack down hard in September.

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.29.20 at 10:35 pm

@#75 No Name.
“All uhaul trucks have arizona plates, no florida. ”

++++

I beg to disagree.
Depending on what side of Canada you reside.
East or west.
Eastern Canuckda sees a few of Florida Uhaul plates
Western Canuckda sees Arizona plates.
Cheap “fleet insurance” states and a International insurance agreement between Canada and the US on Rental insurance reciprocity .
While Arizona is predominant in U Haul plates because the U Haul headquarters is in Arizona and they build them there……
A Florida plate in western Canada merely means an eastern Canadian has “gone west”…….OR a Floridian has moved to Kelowna ……For the snow……..?????????

#79 Ronaldo on 08.29.20 at 11:22 pm

#74 Sergei Satoshi on 08.29.20 at 8:51 pm
The stock market will pump until the election. Not because the economy is getting better but because the fed is directly purchasing stocks. ANY economist that is honest would know this- buy physical silver, buy BITCOIN and RESEARCH AND BUY $chainlink. Then sit back for 1 year until the US dollar collapse get your dual Dominican passport and Retire. Not joking. Heard it here first- I was yelling at my friends to buy $link at $1.80 – 1 listened:)
————————————————————
In addition to physical silver, load up on the silver miners which is where the leverage will reside. Already since March bottom many of the producers have tripled or greater. And don’t forget copper, the next one to move along with some other base metals.

#80 Dirty Dan on 08.29.20 at 11:44 pm

#1 akashic record on 08.29.20 at 9:03 am
Totalitarian regimes had brainwashing at companies, like this.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sandia-labs-goes-nuclear-employee-who-sparked-internal-revolt-over-critical-race-theory

Having worked for a Canadian top 100 company (not a Canadian division of a US company, but a Canadian company), this is not exclusive to the US. They have had the same regular “diversity” training seminars. They even encourage people to take tests to expose “sub-conscious” racism and “sub-conscious” sexism.

It reminded me of Scientology.

#81 Nonplused on 08.29.20 at 11:45 pm

#73 TurnerNation on 08.29.20 at 8:44 pm

“By any logic…
Totally sobar here.”

I think not.

#82 Nonplused on 08.29.20 at 11:50 pm

Hey Ryan, I think I have figured out why you and Doug don’t get as many comments as Garth does.

Of course number one is he hogs all the prime time slots. But also he makes more snarky responses to comments, which the 2 of you fail to do. There is nothing like getting a snarky response or even a delete to let you know that Garth is reading. I’m trying to avoid deletes though because I think the moderated forum is worth while and even if I don’t agree with a particular delete, I can say it a better way.

#83 Don Guillermo on 08.30.20 at 12:21 am

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.29.20 at 5:57 pm
#25 Don Guillermo on 08.29.20 at 1:41 pm
#19 Steve on 08.29.20 at 12:10 pm
One time trade.

All from Albertamerica can leave. All across Canada, anyone who wants to move to the USA – no paperwork, no green card. Just a one time deal.

Anyone who is tired of the Trump Dump can immigrate to Canada. Essentially a trade. Doesn’t have to be one for one. Just a single time, open window.

Both countries would be better off. The actual numbers would likely be surprising
****************************************

Your Alberta hate makes you sound like a sad pathetic little man.
——————–
Canada’s population would probably double.
Americans coming to Canada, tired of the violence and expensive health care system in the States

*******************************************

Your point regarding Alberta hate?

Remember all those Americanos that screamed they were moving to Canada when Trump was elected? Didn’t happen and will never happen. Keep watching those Mercer CBC clips to keep you distracted.

#84 Carnage on all fronts on 08.30.20 at 7:16 am

DELETED

#85 David Hawke on 08.30.20 at 9:03 am

A bit of free advice Ryan, if you want to be taken seriously use a photo of moral person to accompany your article!

At least you brought out the best in TurnerNation’s commentary so it wasn’t a complete loss, eh!

#86 Sara on 08.30.20 at 9:15 am

#82 Nonplussed “There is nothing like getting a snarky response or even a delete to let you know that Garth is reading.”

As SailedAway knows, a SUSPENDED is even better!

#87 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.30.20 at 9:17 am

Nice Millenials… All that whining really worked out well for you.

“Actually, Melbourn is underplaying the severity of the tax difference in just 10 years. According to the Generation Screwed calculator, a person born in 1990 will pay a tax bill of $706,099. Someone born in 2000 will pay $1,661,504, a 235-per-cent increase.”

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/corbella-generation-screwed-is-worried-for-the-future

#88 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.30.20 at 9:22 am

#82 Nonplused on 08.29.20 at 11:50 pm
Hey Ryan, I think I have figured out why you and Doug don’t get as many comments as Garth does.

Of course number one is he hogs all the prime time slots. But also he makes more snarky responses to comments, which the 2 of you fail to do. There is nothing like getting a snarky response or even a delete to let you know that Garth is reading. I’m trying to avoid deletes though because I think the moderated forum is worth while and even if I don’t agree with a particular delete, I can say it a better way

—–

I would say those snarky remarks are well deserved and there are a group on here that had way too many participation ribbons in their lives. They need to be tuned up a bit and reminded that they are not nearly as smart as they think they are. As for the deleted, I feel probably 3/4s of the internet should be deleted.

#89 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.30.20 at 9:31 am

#85 David Hawke on 08.30.20 at 9:03 am
A bit of free advice Ryan, if you want to be taken seriously use a photo of moral person to accompany your article!

At least you brought out the best in TurnerNation’s commentary so it wasn’t a complete loss, eh!

—-

David Hawke, if you want to be taken seriously, find something else to focus on. Would you have preferred Xi?

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.30.20 at 9:37 am

@#80 Dirty Dan
“They have had the same regular “diversity” training seminars. They even encourage people to take tests to expose “sub-conscious” racism and “sub-conscious” sexism.

It reminded me of Scientology.”
+++

The new age, politically correct, Human Resources brainwashing dept.

The new religion.

Its infested all levels of govt. everywhere.
Soon to be coming to a private sector company near you.

Communist China will eat us for breakfast.

#91 Ryan Lewenza on 08.30.20 at 10:18 am

Bent outta shape “ Ryan … what are your thoughts on the price of assets held by REITs, lets say multi-unit residentials, for example.

Obviously, the lower cost of borrowing means refinancing can shave considerable expenses for those operating the properties plus it means potential suitors can afford more product for their money. Additionally, I would expect that vacancy rates should trend downwards moderately as a result of additional families needing to secure accommodations if they lose their home. Of course these are other factors to consider to the contrary.

Please show your work”

I think the REITs look attractive and wrote a blog post on them. And I show the work! Also I had a great conversation with a real estate PM who told me the private markets for commercial RE are on fire right now and 96% of tenants are paying the rent. So I responded that either the publicly traded REITs have it right and private markets have it wrong or vice versa. He agreed. I believe the public REITs are wrong and therefore they will recover nicely as the economy recovers. – Ryan L

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/04/25/reits-are-on-sale/

#92 YouKnowWho on 08.30.20 at 10:27 am

#60 TurnerNation

How many times do I have to tell you about this TN. Joe Rogan with Bret Weinstein. #1494. Go to last 45 minutes for the meat of the discussion on this point.

He made a discovery that explains why quite likely all the drug development and cancer research is flawed and why many of not most of our meds damage our tissues and have so many deadly side effects. This is simply enraging and the whole world should be concerned about this development with these lab mice.

Meanwhile, no one seems to care. WE ARE TRULY INSANE!

#93 cristian on 08.30.20 at 10:28 am

#17 KNOW IT ALL on 08.29.20 at 11:53 am
STAY IN CASH!

…..AND WAIT FOR THE CRASH!

This one’s going to be EPIC!!
*********************
The crash happened in spring .. where have you been ,, now we are laughing all the way to the bank

#94 YouKnowWho on 08.30.20 at 10:37 am

#61 Tarot card

Give them a shovel and you take away a job from the guy already being paid to handle the shovel.

Tell them to clean highways? People are paid to do this now.

Tell them to clean streets? There are people paid to clean streets right now.

Tell them to pick up garbage? We already pay people to do this.

See the issue? If there were jobs unmanned, private sector would man them. Seems only farming jobs are available, but the season is over.

What are you gonna do? Put soft untrained people on a construction site? Only so many positions for the STOP/SLOW sign holders.

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.30.20 at 10:41 am

@#87 Im gonna be sick
“According to the Generation Screwed calculator, a person born in 1990 will pay a tax bill of $706,099. Someone born in 2000 will pay $1,661,504, a 235-per-cent increase.”

++++

And the kids actually think that Trudeau wont raise their taxes even higher.
Cute if it wasnt so sad.

#96 Re elect NO ONE on 08.30.20 at 10:46 am

we are toast:

https://www.globalresearch.ca/carney-freeland-green-reset-shapes-canada-new-normal/5721843

#97 joblo on 08.30.20 at 10:49 am

Kanada exists becuz its next to USA.
Without USA what would you have?
Fur trading, Grain growing for the Queen?

#98 Dharma Bum on 08.30.20 at 10:50 am

It’s not that I’m overly thrilled about being Canadian, necessarily.

I’m just happy to not be American.

The best part about living in Canada is that you can easily participate in the upside of the American equity markets, visit and enjoy their spectacular geographical and climactic regions once in a while, and shop in the glory of their consumer product diversity and abundance from time to time.

Then you get to return to the relative serenity and peaceful boredom of good old Canada and its deluded pseudo leader to relax, see a doctor for free if you need to, have some poutine, and safely watch the crazies across the border on Fox and Twitter.

#99 YouKnowWho on 08.30.20 at 10:52 am

#68 Nonplused

Cars? RV? What else are people buying? Maybe technology?

All rapidly depreciating items. RV…I keep thinking about it, but it just seems like a giant box to drag all your sh…tuff with you on a vacation. Plus the fuel waste. I like to travel light. Maybe a van? Would an econoline be creepy?

#100 Keith in Rio on 08.30.20 at 11:08 am

Looks like someone visited the Louvre and the Museum of Anitquities in Cairo recently.

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/employee-benefits/ohio-pension-fund-adds-gold-allocation-to-hedge-risk-inflation

#101 SmallCapSteve on 08.30.20 at 11:38 am

The change in unemployment rate is a first derivative.

The second derivative would be if it is accelerating or decelerating.

For example, lets say unemployment goes from 25% to 17% to 15% to 14%.

In this case, we can see an unemployment rate that is decreasing (first derivative), but decelerating (second derivative).

And yes, markets tend to go wacky when we see growth in the increase (acceleration) or growth in the decrease rate (also acceleration).

(Not trying to be condescending, I enjoy this blog, don’t always agree, but always a great read!)

#102 KNOW IT ALL on 08.30.20 at 12:00 pm

#17 KNOW IT ALL on 08.29.20 at 11:53 am
STAY IN CASH!

…..AND WAIT FOR THE CRASH!

This one’s going to be EPIC!!
*********************
The crash happened in spring .. where have you been ,, now we are laughing all the way to the bank

*********************************

Markets have recovered…….to being overvauled!

The tech bubble will explode with dire consequences.

I laughed all the way to the bank also……after I SOLD.

Wins or losses “on paper” mean boo-hoo unless you materialize them.

The GREED meter is upbeat these days, hope it’s worth it to you when it swings the other way and takes the markets with it.

#103 SOMETHINGS UP! on 08.30.20 at 12:04 pm

“I see more pluses than minuses”

So do I, but the magnitude of the minuses are greater than the pluses.

#104 Ronaldo on 08.30.20 at 2:19 pm

#99 YouKnowWho on 08.30.20 at 10:52 am
#68 Nonplused

Cars? RV? What else are people buying? Maybe technology?

All rapidly depreciating items. RV…I keep thinking about it, but it just seems like a giant box to drag all your sh…tuff with you on a vacation. Plus the fuel waste. I like to travel light. Maybe a van? Would an econoline be creepy?
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I think my son said it best. “It’s like pulling your motel room behind the car”. Cheaper to just rent the room.

#105 dogwhistle on 08.30.20 at 2:59 pm

“bankrucptices from this downturn eclipsing that seen durign the financial crsis. And it is estimated that 30-50% of all restaurants”

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This reads like an ad for Grammarly, even worse than the prose ‘sail away” comes up with

#106 Sydneysider on 08.30.20 at 4:27 pm

Peter the Great declared that all projects should be devised carefully, lest they ravage the treasury. Those who devised projects carelessly should be whipped, to teach the progeny a lesson.

As we know, in Canada the parent was not whipped, and the progeny did not learn the lesson.

#107 David Hawke on 08.30.20 at 5:25 pm

#89 ImGonnaBeSick

Rattled your chain, EH! :)

#108 Tony on 08.30.20 at 11:20 pm

I see the U.S. dollar falling off a cliff in 2021 something that would have already happened this year had it not been a presidential election year.