Never enough

Never doubt the inverse relationship between house prices and interest rates. As the cost of a five-year insured mortgage spiraled down to 1.5% last week, real estate went nuts. Bidding wars, blind auctions, bully bids, manipulative realtors and greedy sellers. What a combo.

A mortgage of $1 million (more common than you might think) at 1.59% carries for just over four grand a month. That’s the cost of a two-bedroom condo rental in the downtown core of Toronto. (Of course you also have to pay $60,000 in land transfer tax when you buy, plus property tax to own and commission to sell.) A year ago a good mortgage was 3.2%, and that seven-figure loan cost $800 more a month to shoulder.

A small example. Let’s take Toronto where a million isn’t what it used to be. In theory a couple with a household income of $300,000 and a hundred grand for a down payment would qualify for a mortgage of $1.23 million at 1.59%, buying them a house worth $1.32 million. Compare that with last year when a five-year home loan cost 3.2%. Then the max loan would be just over $1 million, securing a property selling for $1.119 million. (In reality CMHC insurance ends for properties over $1 million. Plus there is the stress test to pass.)

See what Covid did? The same people could borrow and spend $200,000 more. And many are. Low rates are pushing houses higher, increasing the capacity of buyers to carry debt. Evidence of this is everywhere, and spreading. The low rates central banks are using to rescue the economy are having the same effect as in 2009, when this device was equally triggered. That’s when Canada’s real estate roulette started.

By the way, when is the typical million-dollar mortgage paid off?

Never, of course. Most Canadians move every four years or less, so they’re basically renting the money. Mortgages this cheap and plentiful are allowing people to buy homes they don’t actually own with cash they’ll never repay, while financing real estate inflation. Every time the For Sale sign is spiked into the front lawn, a greater fool rolls up.

But wait. The virus has done a lot more than just depress the cost of borrowing. It’s actually created cash flow.

Stores were closed for months. Clubs, concerts, conventions, arenas, theaters shuttered. Nobody’s travelling to Cuba or taking planes across the country. WFH means no commuting. No gas, car repairs or a new ride. No new dress slacks, high heels, lunches out or hair appointments. A survey by MNP last month found people had an average $150 more a month in disposable income than in March. The proportion of households within $200 of financial insolvency each month dropped from about half to just 43%.

Yes, in Canada when only four in ten folks are one muffler repair away from ruin, it’s considered success. Kinda like how Chrystia will manage federal finances. So, mortgages at 1.5% will, of course, seriously augment debt and set families up for an interesting future when the virus is no longer around to distort reality.

In fact, MNP warns that as economic normality slowly returns, creditors will be pushing households even further into debt as loans are refinanced or extended. “It’s difficult to predict how many Canadians will require some form of debt-relief as a result of COVID, but it’s not too much of a leap to say it will likely be as unprecedented as the scope of the pandemic itself,” it says.

After all, we know what’s coming. CERB payments will transition into EI. Unemployment will stay elevated well into 2021. Mortgage deferrals will end. Credit card and LOC payment holidays will be over. Workplaces will start to reopen, and commuting resume. And there could be mayhem and economic disruption as the US election unfolds in early November.

CMHC appears to be sticking with its prediction that house prices could drop from these levels by 20% before the year is out. If it were to happen, every buyer today with less than a fifth down would be under water – owing more debt than they own in house.

One thing’s for sure. If you get a honking big loan for 1.5%, you won’t be renewing it for the same price five years hence. No matter what President Harris or PM Freeland do.

162 comments ↓

#1 Captain Uppa on 08.24.20 at 1:52 pm

Boomers have hit the biggest jackpot known to human civilization.

This is not a criticism, by the way.

#2 Econ 101 on 08.24.20 at 1:54 pm

Ahh yes, symbolism over credentials…

What a world, what a world!

How the mighty rise and fall. I wonder what our fore-people would say?

#3 akashic record on 08.24.20 at 1:55 pm

Who cares about interest rates, when President Harris or PM Freeland would abolish debt slavery?

#4 JB CONDO DEATH on 08.24.20 at 2:02 pm

#175 YouKnowWho on 08.24.20 at 8:32 am

#153 PastThePeak

——————————

I hear what you’re saying. Thing is, data quality is an issue. WHO has issued directives about cause of death assignment that potentially inflate numbers. Many who would have died within days or weeks anyway because of very poor health are now counted as Covid deaths if they caught it in last days of they lives (senior care homes/palliative care places for example). No other cause is attributed in the numbers. You have to keep that data bias in mind. Also, Covid deaths are counted so closely, it is a point to keep in mind. Example: annual flu, you’ll get all kinds of estimated data in official communication, because no one cares to count that closely or accurately. You’ll read things like 45-95k deaths or 70-150k. Etc. But Covid, 4763 <- precise count.

But the Covid death number, it could easily be argued is of questionable quality. Strangely, the flu has completely disappeared from the face of the earth it seems as well. Did you notice?

Let’s bring it back to real estate. With Covid, they are reporting total units sold but aren’t braking down detached (diabetes), semi (overweight), condo (pre-existing condition), commercial (age), etc. And when that detail is factored in, suddenly you realize that there is a usual element of nature’s M.O. present – weeding out the old and week. It lacks compassion, but then again nature isn’t all that compassionate. Just like we (humanity) aren’t all that compassionate to nature.

We have become detached from nature. We abuse her and take her for granted. We mess with her and her gifts. I’ve said this before, she deserves to get a few punches in on humanity. We’ve grown too soft to accept those rules of the game it seems.

#1 cause of death is living. Go live your day. Tomorrow really isn’t guaranteed. That’s Covid’s reminder.
…………………………………………………………….
Exactly why I would never let my parents move into a condo! They are older and retirees with existing health conditions.

#5 KNOW IT ALL on 08.24.20 at 2:07 pm

“President Harris or PM Freeland” ???

– What you talkin bout Willis?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJd1RktjYTU

#6 Dominoes Lining Up on 08.24.20 at 2:09 pm

What, not a word about the new Tory leader? Were you out partying until 1 AM or looking at a tv screen or something, Garth?

Seriously, though, there will be some economic wild cards soon, I think, that will cast harsh light on this new debt reality.

The Wexit movement appears ready to really take off, and this new guy will stoke those fires to strengthen his base; that is, right until his base splits away and the Conservatives end up being 2 or maybe 3 different parties.

Back to school and (hopefully) back to work for so many in the next few weeks means a big reality check for lots of people. I think things will start to sink in fast about what we will have lost. I am noticing already an apparent slowdown in the crazy summer real estate market in the GTA. Many more listings have been on the market now for over a month and unsold.

It has felt like an incredibly warm summer, one of the best ever.

Come November, this will start to feel like one of the worst winters ever in more ways than one.

#7 Dolce Vita on 08.24.20 at 2:09 pm

Well, apparently not only are Cdn buyers of RE in on the banks flush with cash to give out bonanza, Uncle Sam cashing in as well on Cdn bank gifthorses:

This week:

“TD Bank fined $122M by U.S. consumer regulator for pushy tactics selling overdraft service”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/td-bank-overdraft-fee-1.5695330

Last week:

“Scotiabank to pay $127M in fines for traders’ price fixing of precious metals”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/scotiabank-spoofing-fine-1.5692117

——————–

Any bets on which of the remaining Big 5 are next?

Nothing like Yankee Capitalism, Das Kapital style.

#8 Dolce Vita on 08.24.20 at 2:11 pm

“No matter what President Harris or PM Freeland do.”

THAT was good, yet it was.

#9 NSNG on 08.24.20 at 2:13 pm

If I were O’Toole’s advisors I’d tell him to stick to two messages from now on straight through the election.

1. We want to bring back your jobs by rebuilding a strong small business economy once again. We will make policy changes to support that.

2. We need to focus on getting our fiscal books back in order.

If the MSM tries to change the topic to the oil patch or to social issues, then just state that those are not the focus of the government. Then just repeat: We have plenty of work to do fixing the Liberal debacle regarding point one and two

I think many people would agree with them on those two points

#10 akashic record on 08.24.20 at 2:19 pm

No matter what President Harris or PM Freeland do.

2016 all over again: ‘Hillary, Rubio is the ticket’.

#11 LepreCon on 08.24.20 at 2:20 pm

Erin O’Toole?
Really?
Was there no lesson learned with Mr. Scheer?

Social conservatism remains to be a insipid hinderance to forming a government for the Cons in Canada… and with the Wexit Party gathering troops, get ready for 6 more years at least of Liberal governments.

Whether the knuckle-draggers on this blog like it or not, Cons need to move a little left to form government. This was not it. – Garth

#12 TurnerNation on 08.24.20 at 2:26 pm

#138 Ace Goodheart I’ve seen a dozen ‘Coming soon’ signs in Toronto core – Semis and SFH. Realtor lawn signs up with a Coming Soon placard. Not even waiting for the ink to dry.
Perhaps also to solicit bully offers?

#13 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.20 at 2:29 pm

RE: #1 Captain Uppa on 08.24.20 at 1:52 pm

Boomers have hit the biggest jackpot known to human civilization.

This is not a criticism, by the way.

///////////////////////////////////

Yup.

Unbelievable what has happened.

People who paid forty grand for their working class houses back in the 1970s are now cashing out for $2,000,000.00 or so.

Invested at 3%, that is $60,000 per year for life.

Invested in dividend producing securities, that is $750.00 per year paid in income tax (versus $14,156.00 if you earned the 60K per year by working).

This is a gift like no other.

Just when the Millennials thought they had been completely upended by the Boomer generation, here comes COVID.

The new Millennial reality: never, ever pay for your house.

Income taxes headed up.

A new consumption tax coming down the pipe.

Capital gains inclusion rate going up.

But are they going to touch dividends paid on the securities you bought after you sold your 40K house for $2,000,000.00 to a couple of millenial newly weds and their screaming toddler and insomniac 6 month old?

Heck, no.

Dividends are sacred.

The Baby Boomers might just be the most fortunate generation ever born in North America. They cannot lose.

#14 Avner on 08.24.20 at 2:36 pm

Something I find interesting that isn’t being discussed about the transition from CERB to EI is that CERB is funded directly out of federal coffers, whereas EI is funded by employers and employees… nice little bait and switch by the Liberals in my opinion. The fact that they’re adding more recipients to EI is also a coup d’etat as I’m not sure that self employed and “gig” employees actually contribute to EI. So now you can nail employers and employees with higher payroll taxes without a hit to the federal budget. Please correct me if I’m wrong.

#15 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.20 at 2:38 pm

#12 TurnerNation on 08.24.20 at 2:26 pm

#138 Ace Goodheart I’ve seen a dozen ‘Coming soon’ signs in Toronto core – Semis and SFH. Realtor lawn signs up with a Coming Soon placard. Not even waiting for the ink to dry.
Perhaps also to solicit bully offers?

//////////////////////////////////////

It’s gone nuts here.

You can’t even get into the houses anymore. If you want to purchase in one of Toronto’s popular ‘hoods, you need to find an Agent who has connections, to get you into your chosen house for a showing, and then get the down low on when they are having the auction (Sundays are a favorite for the auctions now for some reason).

Once you are part of the “chosen few” who get to bid on the house, you need a certified cheque for about 100K (some are now asking for more), an unconditional offer and a lot of stomach antacid pills.

You then bid until you become too afraid to bid any higher.

The sellers “play” with the buyers. The first round of bids is always refused. Sometimes they refuse the second round. They pick a handful of potential winners, and ask for even more money. Whomever wins the house is going to be scrambling to come up with the multiples of a million dollars required to close the deal.

I have not seen this ever in Toronto. This resembles what was happening in Vancouver just before the government stepped in and shut it down. It is a frantic no holds barred situation. People are nuts.

#16 Dolce Vita on 08.24.20 at 2:38 pm

Some off topic Virus Porn that did not escape the keen eye of the Italian MSM:

“Covid outbreak in a nudist resort in France: over 100 positives”

Use translate.

https://www.lastampa.it/esteri/2020/08/24/news/focolaio-di-covid-in-un-resort-per-nudisti-in-francia-oltre-100-positivi-1.39225978

———————————-

Of course other national MSM’s reported it as well:

1. Americans think they are buying eggs (NY Post)…

“Dozens of nudists test positive for COVID-19 at French colony”

2. The English, prim and proper as ever (The Guardian)…

“French naturist camp hit by ‘very worrying’ Covid-19 outbreak”

3. The French, coy & not beneath them to miss a marketing opportunity (France 24):

“Famous French nudist resort hard-hit by ‘worrying’ Covid-19 outbreak”

4. Canada

5. Australia, Trump plasma, oh and ya, the French (ABC News):

“Coronavirus update: WHO says efficacy of plasma therapy, touted by Donald Trump, still ‘inconclusive’, French nudists encouraged to cover up”

6. And the Italians, again (HuffPost Italia):

“Outbreak in a nudist resort in France: 100 positives”

#17 YouKnowWho on 08.24.20 at 2:49 pm

#4 JB CONDO DEATH on 08.24.20 at 2:02 pm

Exactly why I would never let my parents move into a condo! They are older and retirees with existing health conditions.

—————-

That’s what I’m talking about! If we want to truly protect the weak and the old, we need to focus our efforts on section of the population. If that means taking steps to ensure their safety so that they are not at risk, than that is wise.

However, I take significant exception with what is happening now. We are WITHOUT DOUBT sacrificing the young, the strong, the healthy for the old, the weak, the sick. And while I understand compassion, where is the compassion for the young, the strong, the healthy?

If the old, the weak, the sick can’t have fun then no one can?

We need to steal time, opportunity, jobs, family and home forming years, fun from the young to save an 85 year old on the last string?

The balance is clearly lost.

#18 This is the best advice for you on 08.24.20 at 2:51 pm

I keep buying, buying buying. While my empire grows every year, I keep getting richer, richer richer. If you can afford to buy, then buy – don’t rent. Get in where you can, even if it’s a condo or town. Don’t go crazy, just buy what you can comfortably afford and then watch your asset grow while it provides a roof over your head and maybe your friends head while you rent out the spare room to him for some extra $$ in your pocket. Fear is the enemy of progress. Just get out of your thoughts and do it.

#19 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 08.24.20 at 2:53 pm

There is no disputing the facts so clearly RE is poised to Wow short term and have a correction of sorts mid term. How big we will see though I doubt ” this time will be different ” long term (10 years out ) .
The biggest issue is that so far nobody (politicians) has come straight up to let us know what their plan is to grow the economic pie,as cutting taxes and creating more entry level jobs at minimum wage is not it. Not that we don’t need them but percentage wise I feel we have too many of those and not enough of the better paying kind ,just cruise Indeed and you’ll see.
The Tories will likely focus on things nobody truly cares about (ethics) when they(average Joe) can’t pay for monthly living. The average person gets it that most politicians are corrupt so they focus on what is best for them in these trying economic times.

#20 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.20 at 2:54 pm

RE: Whether the knuckle-draggers on this blog like it or not, Cons need to move a little left to form government. This was not it. – Garth

The Liberals have an historic opportunity to achieve a majority government.

I just don’t think they see it.

It is a bit of a stretch for them to notice.

It would involve a bunch of people doing something they have never done before.

On the one hand, you have the Conservatives, who have just elected another un-electable person as their leader (way to go on that one, what in the world was wrong with McKay?).

On the other hand, you have the Liberals, who continue to put their hopes in Mr. Fancy Socks, a person whose credibility is so completely shredded that you could not find another strip to tear off of it if you had an electron credibility microscope to look with.

All the while, the perfect leader is just sitting there, being used as a “yes” person for Trudeau. A cleaner up of toxic spills. A placeholder while they look for someone better.

What about Chrystia Freeland?

I would vote for her. I would choose her over any of the candidates that the Conservatives were running.

Why not put her in? Get rid of Trudeau?

Is it Canada’s continued antipathy to having a female as leader that stops anyone from seeing this golden opportunity for the Liberals to secure themselves another 5 year term with a majority mandate?

If not, what is it?

Why am I the only one who sees this?

Did you not read my last line? – Garth

#21 Paul on 08.24.20 at 3:17 pm

I saw what you did there. No matter what President Harris or PM Freeland do.lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=218iXiKhKlg

#22 BlogDog123 on 08.24.20 at 3:22 pm

Good ol’ cheap mortgages… Boom, Bust, Echo, so the Echo/Millennial generation needs that house just like Mom and Dad keep pushing them to buy “before it’s too late”…

Can’t see it working well for that 30-something couple up to their eyeballs in debt in 15 years, still with those onerous mortgage payments… At least they’ll be employed with the Boomers retired…

Prez Harris is certainly a possibility when Biden checks into Windy Pines retirement community.

#23 The West on 08.24.20 at 3:29 pm

#1 Captain Uppa

Boomers have hit the biggest jackpot known to human civilization.

This is not a criticism, by the way.
—————————————————————–

This is why democracies fail – who is the biggest voting block. There is an Engish bloke who talks about this in length from a presentation to Oxford last year. When the boomers were building their wealth they elected right wing, staunch conservative governments all across the western world. And now, as they age and they want the entitlements, they vote left as can be.

This is well worth the watch. This is why society is tilting with anger and frustration. What the boomers have done is not only self serving, its dangerous.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuXzvjBYW8A

#24 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.20 at 3:31 pm

Re: Did you not read my last line? – Garth

I did. That went over my head the first time, but now I am seeing it.

#25 S on 08.24.20 at 3:35 pm

#20 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.20 at 2:54 pm

Occasionally Ms. Freeland stands behind Mr. Trudeau as he delivers his speeches. Notice her mannerisms. She moves and nods her head as though she was the one delivering the lines. Under the mask she appears to be mouthing his lines. Quite a thing to see. No one else is this animated while the JT speaks. She might as well be the one writing his speeches or designing his government’s policy. She appears to be his most enthusiastic and unconditional supporter. And you think she is the best option for PM. I thought we needed change.

#26 Mattl on 08.24.20 at 3:41 pm

Our mortgage is low relative to income, so when we wanted to build a new deck we took out a HELOC with the idea we would pay it down over the next few years. Don’t love debt but he cost to finance at the time was low enough that we could live with it. Fast forward a year later, and this debt is at or around inflation. Free money. And the house it is attached to has grown in value substantially – double digit YOY.

We avoid debt but this one I’m leaving on the books. Why would I be in any rush to retire a mortgage under 2 and a HELOC under 3? Makes no sense to put money against that debt, much rather move money into my investment accounts.

But I can see how people have gotten themselves in debt trouble. And why welded aluminum full cabin boats sell for so much. Sure debt is bad, but debt that you easily service at 3x the rate is no bad at all.

#27 TurnerNation on 08.24.20 at 3:41 pm

Welp if ‘all wars are bankers wars’ as some here blithely mention, if we are in a global war/takedown (WW3) atm
— don your mask, shields, gloves and (spray) guns and aim toward your fellow man- – then good ground is being gained daily.
Open air debtors prisons.

#28 Damifino on 08.24.20 at 3:43 pm

#18 This is the best advice for you

I keep buying, buying buying. While my empire grows every year, I keep getting richer, richer richer.
——————————

But only when you do some selling, selling, selling…

#29 Yukon Elvis on 08.24.20 at 3:49 pm

No matter what President Harris or PM Freeland do.
………………………………

Bathtub,check. Scotch,check. Pills,check. Razor blade,check. Hurtin’ country music, check. I’m coming Elizabeth, I’m coming !

#30 the Jaguar on 08.24.20 at 4:01 pm

Thank goodness for Häagen-Dazs Dulce de Leche or I’m not sure I could have picked myself up off the canvas late last night while waiting for the votes to come in, the lesson being to never underestimate those wily French Canadians. At least O’Toole is from Montreal so the country can stop blaming the West for everything under the sun.

Speaking of wily people, this gem in today’s post is interesting:
“It’s difficult to predict how many Canadians will require some form of debt-relief as a result of COVID, but it’s not too much of a leap to say it will likely be as unprecedented as the scope of the pandemic itself,” .

Let’s assume for a moment that those same people approach their financial institution for a refinance, confident they have a little equity cushion to bargain with as collateral due to the market upswing. Maybe their existing mortgage is insured through CMHC, and they think they will just roll their debt into a brand new mortgage. Maybe not. Why would a Bank given up its insured first position, especially if the borrower has demonstrated poor financial management after the fact? Maybe it’s better from a risk perspective to help them out, but do by way of a second charge mortgage on the property for any new funds which would carry a significantly higher interest rate. Kind of a ‘We’ll help you out of your mess, but only on our terms’, scenario.

Gotta love those ancient warriors, always lookin’ out for their shareholders. They wrote the book on ‘wily’.
Amen.

#31 McSteve on 08.24.20 at 4:16 pm

Could we just have the Queen take over for a bit until we can find some new leaders?

#32 Blobby on 08.24.20 at 4:16 pm

Im 45.

I’ve been listening to ya since i was 30. And for most part I agree.

But yes – 5 years time people are going to be screwed. Doesnt stop prices/rents going up now.

#33 Linda on 08.24.20 at 4:22 pm

At last I get it – sort of. Still can’t quite wrap my head around the concept of taking on a mortgage of a million plus for a place to live in. However, the concept that the money is merely ‘rented’ & that the mortgagee has no intent to actually pay the sum owing does explain why anyone would borrow such a sum. Still doesn’t make it a smart thing to do – most households are bringing home a lot less than $300K per annum – but people obviously think it worth the risk. Especially if they can then recoup their ‘investment’ by selling the property to someone else at an even higher price. The true winners in this situation appear to be the bank/mortgage company & the government. The mortgagee gets to live in a house for a while. Seems to me it would be far less expensive to rent a house rather than buy. The whole loss of equity/paying someone else’s mortgage argument becomes moot if one is going to shell out $60K in land transfer taxes. May as well just pay it in rent & use any excess funds to build a nice liquid portfolio.

#34 looking up on 08.24.20 at 4:27 pm

#29 Yukon Elvis on 08.24.20 at 3:49 pm

Bathtub,check. Scotch,check. Pills,check. Razor blade,check. Hurtin’ country music, check. I’m coming Elizabeth, I’m coming !

——————————–

Hilarious!!

#35 I Hate Flying on 08.24.20 at 4:31 pm

“Nobody’s travelling to Cuba or taking planes across the country.”

Are you a betting man? I fly across the country routinely and the flights are generally full or darn close to it. Reduced flights for sure but many are traveling. Same goes for flights between YVR and LAX. It’s been very full in my recent experiences even with a closed border.

#36 Dee on 08.24.20 at 4:31 pm

No matter what President Harris and PM Freeland do.
hahahaha are you thinking like me Garth? Won’t be long before the liberals push Justin out and i think Biden won’t be long in office before Harris is given the reins

#37 Leichendiener on 08.24.20 at 4:44 pm

Blue Tory is more like ‘blew it’ Tory. So it is different this time for WFH! It’s called band width. Biden will hand it over to Harris in two years so she can have a ten year run (22nd Amendment). If the Green New Deal comes to pass, prepare for rolling blackouts.

The thing I fail to grasp abut current right-wingers is why you think in extremes. Of course the largest, most technologically-sophisticated economy in the world will never have engineered rolling blackouts. Do you believe in the Q pedophile conspiracy, too? – Garth

#38 Screwed Blued and Tatooed on 08.24.20 at 4:51 pm

So do the math. You bought your million dollar hovel. No one coming from asia, no one can get a mortgage, no has a job, government payments are running dry. FINISHED.

#39 Barb on 08.24.20 at 5:01 pm

Will O’Toole receive flack for how he handled the Veterans who returned from Afghanistan… back in 2015?
Or did that fall solely on Harper’s shoulders?

#40 ABK on 08.24.20 at 5:04 pm

Whether the knuckle-draggers on this blog like it or not, Cons need to move a little left to form government. This was not it. – Garth

Totally agree Garth. Just saying “Trudeau sucks” and trying to generate excitement over regressive social conservative policies is not going to get them elected.

The Cons desperately need some big ideas and a platform that is contemporary, energetic and forward looking!

Sadly, I suspect that Trudeau woke up this morning very happy that O’Toole won!

#41 bdwy sktrn on 08.24.20 at 5:06 pm

prepare for rolling blackouts.

The thing I fail to grasp abut current right-wingers is why you think in extremes. Of course the largest, most technologically-sophisticated economy in the world will never have engineered rolling blackouts

————–
didn’t california, the largest most tech-sophisticated state just go thru this…

“The California Independent System Operator (California ISO) said in a statement that the brief rolling blackouts throughout the state were caused by the failure of a power plant and the loss of wind power.”

green new deal insanity wants far, far, more wind, less thermal than there is today. ergo many, many more blackouts if the AOC tech luddites keep over riding the engineers.

The challenge in California is weather/climate and a crappy grid. It’s not policy-driven. – Garth

#42 Oracle of Ottawa on 08.24.20 at 5:14 pm

It’s been almost 10 years since I’ve been separated. My ex wondered why I wasn’t buying a house when we sold the marital home. I thought house prices were too expensive and due for a correction. Well I’m still waiting.

#43 Julian on 08.24.20 at 5:20 pm

“One thing’s for sure. If you get a honking big loan for 1.5%, you won’t be renewing it for the same price five years hence.”

Garth, I don’t know about such predictions. I mean we just seem to be in a new era of cheap money and a few years ago everyone would have sworn money could get no cheaper and yet here we are. Yes, it’s been due to the pandemic but it’s not as though rates were exactly high during the economic highs leading up to the US-Chona trade war sabre rattling or whatever the it was that caused the pre-Covid rate cuts. Full disclosure – I’m in the searching for 1st home camp.

It is impossible central banks will not try to increase base lending rates as economies reopen. If they do not up the cost of money, they will be out of bullets when the next downturn comes. Without CB firepower you might call than one a ‘depression’. – Garth

#44 Ronaldo on 08.24.20 at 5:21 pm

#25 S on 08.24.20 at 3:35 pm
#20 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.20 at 2:54 pm

Occasionally Ms. Freeland stands behind Mr. Trudeau as he delivers his speeches. Notice her mannerisms. She moves and nods her head as though she was the one delivering the lines. Under the mask she appears to be mouthing his lines. Quite a thing to see. No one else is this animated while the JT speaks. She might as well be the one writing his speeches or designing his government’s policy. She appears to be his most enthusiastic and unconditional supporter. And you think she is the best option for PM. I thought we needed change.
—————————————————————–
Didn’t you know she is a ventriloquist. lol

#45 crossbordershopper on 08.24.20 at 5:25 pm

wow, 300K a year and they are just another smuck going to work, living this ponzi scheme of real estate, debt and life. and what staying at home you can save a browny or two more a month, wow.
I guess unlike most people we pay cash for everything, maybe because no one would end us any money might be the reason, but more like we don’t do debt.

#46 Don Guillermo on 08.24.20 at 5:28 pm

The challenge in California is weather/climate and a crappy grid. It’s not policy-driven. – Garth

Apparently Forbes doesn’t agree with you either.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/08/15/why-californias-climate-policies-are-causing-electricity-black-outs/#7b9a7e9e1591

“The utility and California’s leaders had over the previous decade diverted billions meant for grid maintenance to renewables”

Forbes doesn’t say that, a columnist does. And, as stated, Cali has a crappy grid. – Garth

#47 DON on 08.24.20 at 5:34 pm

#33 Linda on 08.24.20 at 4:22 pm
At last I get it – sort of. Still can’t quite wrap my head around the concept of taking on a mortgage of a million plus for a place to live in. However, the concept that the money is merely ‘rented’ & that the mortgagee has no intent to actually pay the sum owing does explain why anyone would borrow such a sum. Still doesn’t make it a smart thing to do – most households are bringing home a lot less than $300K per annum – but people obviously think it worth the risk. Especially if they can then recoup their ‘investment’ by selling the property to someone else at an even higher price. The true winners in this situation appear to be the bank/mortgage company & the government. The mortgagee gets to live in a house for a while. Seems to me it would be far less expensive to rent a house rather than buy. The whole loss of equity/paying someone else’s mortgage argument becomes moot if one is going to shell out $60K in land transfer taxes. May as well just pay it in rent & use any excess funds to build a nice liquid portfolio.

****************

Not only that 25 to 30 yrs on the morthage…how much have interest rates changed in 30 yrs.

Then the music box stops and there are no longer any buyers at those prices as not enough people can qualify.

#48 DON on 08.24.20 at 5:38 pm

No matter what President Harris or PM Freeland do.

*************

Chumming the waters tonight? lol

Already got a few bites I see.

#49 dogwhistle on 08.24.20 at 5:40 pm

#9 NSNG on 08.24.20 at 2:13 pm
If I were O’Toole’s advisors I’d tell him to stick to two messages from now on straight through the election.

1. We want to bring back your jobs by rebuilding a strong small business economy once again. We will make policy changes to support that.

———————————————————

Spot on NSNG. And we know how much Trudeau hates
small businesses O’Toole Wan Kenobi is our only hope.

#defundtheCRA

#50 Lazy Law clerk on 08.24.20 at 5:47 pm

Unless you’re lucky like Garth, why would any one decide to settle down in Toronto and pay C$999,999 for a house? The divorce rates have skyrocketed in Toronto. I work as a law clerk and the claims for divorce are comical. Lots of homeless men this next year!

#51 Penny Henny on 08.24.20 at 5:52 pm

#20 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.20 at 2:54 pm

Why am I the only one who sees this?

Did you not read my last line? – Garth

/////////////////

Ace reminds me of how we used to describe my ex sister in law.
“She is not listening she is just waiting to talk”

#52 Paul Krugman on 08.24.20 at 5:55 pm

I guess by the end of the year we will know how credible CMHC talking head Evan is.

#53 D.A. Conner on 08.24.20 at 5:56 pm

Curious – where did you get this stat from? “Most Canadians move every four years or less”

#54 Don Guillermo on 08.24.20 at 5:58 pm

Forbes doesn’t say that, a columnist does. And, as stated, Cali has a crappy grid. – Garth

Correction noted:

Michael Shellenberger is a columnist who has contributed to The New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Scientific American, Forbes and other publications on a wide range of climate and energy topics.

Sorry, it seems to me that a crappy policy created a crappy grid.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/08/15/why-californias-climate-policies-are-causing-electricity-black-outs/#2e2d3dab1591

#55 Stinking Albatross on 08.24.20 at 5:58 pm

I won! I won! ! won again! The Conservative Party is all mine!

Soon, it will be all of Canada!

Social Conservatism rules!

Women, immigrants, go back to your seats, and don’t get up until I tell you to! Do as you are told!

The environment? Shut up and pump out more oil! Alberta’s already too cold in February so a few degrees of extra heat will be just fine!

Old Stock Canada is comin’ back!

Conservative voters are always right!

#56 Penny Henny on 08.24.20 at 6:01 pm

#42 Oracle of Ottawa on 08.24.20 at 5:14 pm
It’s been almost 10 years since I’ve been separated. My ex wondered why I wasn’t buying a house when we sold the marital home. I thought house prices were too expensive and due for a correction. Well I’m still waiting.
///////////////

your ex is one smart chick

#57 Brian Ripley on 08.24.20 at 6:03 pm

“The proportion of households within $200 of financial insolvency each month dropped from about half to just 43%…” MNP Survey – “Yes, in Canada when only four in ten folks are one muffler repair away from ruin…” Garth

43%… Yeah, my June 2020 blog post http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/household-net-worth shows that according to the PBO (Parliamentary Budget Office), the bottom 40% of Canadian households have less than $50,000 of net worth.

Today I updated my Canadian Household Debt, GDP, Foreign Direct Investment and Balance of Trade chart http://www.chpc.biz/household-debt.html and the over leveraged appear in different aspects of our economy of ‘more consumption and less production’.

Net Trade has crashed on the 2Q print (negative for th elast 8 out of 9 quarters).

Mortgage and household debt are at record levels on the 1Q print.

Foreign Direct Investment has been negative for over 20 years with $1.43 of investment capital leaving Canada for every $1.00 of foreign capital being invested in Canada (full year 2019).

Will we see tax and electoral reform other than rearranging the deckchairs in this upcoming election cycle? I’m not holding my breath. It’s time for a new generation to take over and here’s tip to any young person considering a political career… get a coalition together with a platform that includes replacing our centuries old tax system with a modern data driven micro tax on all transactions… see:
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00530144/file/A_flat_rate_FTTv3.pdf
and http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/apt

#58 Doug t on 08.24.20 at 6:04 pm

Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.

Dictators ride to and fro on tigers from which they dare not dismount. And the tigers are getting hungry.”

If you weren’t a liberal in your twenties you had no heart , if you aren’t a conservative by your forties you had no brain

Churchill

Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.”

#59 Pete from St. Cesaire on 08.24.20 at 6:06 pm

The thing I fail to grasp abut current right-wingers is why you think in extremes. Of course the largest, most technologically-sophisticated economy in the world will never have engineered rolling blackouts. Do you believe in the Q pedophile conspiracy, too? – Garth
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The way I remember it, ENRON imposed rolling blackouts on California 20 years ago.
Much of what “Q” talks about will come to pass but “Q” followers won’t ever understand that Q & Trump are the NWO. By the time this period of (planned) upheaval is over Trump will be lauded (by those whose voices still count) as the greatest man ever and the saviour of the free world.

#60 TurnerNation on 08.24.20 at 6:06 pm

Toronto is turning into Vancouver circa 2016. We have seen this before.
Standing in a parking lot behind a street of downtown semis…yes they are indeed slanting! Great work for the underpinners.
A “Toronto Special” let’s call it, a Slanty Semi (SS) soon to be 1.5m+

#61 Habitt on 08.24.20 at 6:09 pm

Again with TO. What’s happening elsewhere? Chrystia will do what? We will see. Read greater fool years ago still waiting for it’s predictions to come true. Love the blog. You can fool some people all the time, some people some of the time but you can’t fool all the the people all of the time. You can be right all of the time…. thanks for what you do sir.

#62 Bill on 08.24.20 at 6:20 pm

#28 Damifino
——————
Accumulation of RE is second to none but location maters. Selling gets you know where but paying capital gains.
As long as they print print tangibles do very well.
I have $300,000 yr rental income.
So sell and put it in the bank…bad call.
Every year I see steel, insulation, drywall ect go up 4-7% and I smile. Building products rarely go down and my commercial rent goes up 2.5% annually. win win
Unless we go into a depression….that changes the pic.
But having no debt gives me fire power to weather serious storms.

#63 akashic record on 08.24.20 at 6:23 pm

Do you believe in the Q pedophile conspiracy, too? – Garth

Knowing the proven facts how the nobody Epstein evaded justice for decades, how he checked out – is there any good reason, not to entertain the possibility?

Maybe this comment section should shutter until after November 3rd. It will not become a platform for Q poison or anyone who does not reject it. – Garth

#64 Renting but looking to buy on 08.24.20 at 6:25 pm

Today while talking to mortgage advisor in bank, they brought up HRLC – Home Ready Line of Credit. I could not figure out why I needed one, when I was there to get a mortgage to buy first home. Why think about second one if even not in the first one or a yacht. Would love to hear thoughts on HRLC.

#65 Bdwy on 08.24.20 at 6:39 pm

Forbes doesn’t say that, a columnist does. And, as stated, Cali has a crappy grid. – Garth
…….
A grid creates no energy, only moves it around. How does the best grid ever keep the lights on when there is no wind or sun?
(My modern mono crystalline panels drop to below 5% of max when a bit of cloud rolls in.) Until we have grid scale storage renewables need 100% backup, don’t they?

Plus we soon need to add dozens of new nuke plants for all those teslas to be delivered in the next 20 years.

Green new deal = american economic cancer imo.

#66 FreeBird on 08.24.20 at 6:46 pm

Yet another JT team related sketchy situation? Maybe none issue but optics aren’t good. I don’t follow much of MSM so maybe Im one of last to hear.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/katie-telfords-husband-pressed-trudeau-government-to-make-changes-to-wage-subsidy-law-to-benefit-his-employer-sources/wcm/ca90f170-8212-4e25-b2e4-3f568d820306/

#67 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.20 at 6:56 pm

RE: #51 Penny Henny on 08.24.20 at 5:52 pm

Ace reminds me of how we used to describe my ex sister in law.
“She is not listening she is just waiting to talk”

/////////////////////////////////

Point taken.

Although in this case the issue was not properly reading the blog post, before posting a comment.

#68 NoName on 08.24.20 at 6:59 pm

#65 Bdwy on 08.24.20 at 6:39 pm

… Plus we soon need to add dozens of new nuke plants for all those tesla…

___

I don’t think tesla will be a problem… I was looking at the table mid month in Norway they sold only 3 cars out of 2800 electric cars sold.

Germany car sales this year, tesla competition is launching their electric and plugin hybrids, car landscape in 2025 will be interesting.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/23/11-ev-market-share-in-germany-let-the-disruption-begin/amp/

#69 [email protected] on 08.24.20 at 6:59 pm

#64 Renting but looking to buy on 08.24.20 at 6:25 pm
Today while talking to mortgage advisor in bank, they brought up HRLC – Home Ready Line of Credit. I could not figure out why I needed one, when I was there to get a mortgage to buy first home. Why think about second one if even not in the first one or a yacht. Would love to hear thoughts.
————————————————————
The answer is very simple. We want you to borrow, borrow and then borrow some more. You always wanted that yacht didn’t you? Now you can have it with a low rate HRLC!

#70 akashic record on 08.24.20 at 7:02 pm

DELETED

#71 Stan Brooks Psychiatrist on 08.24.20 at 7:05 pm

#50 Lazy Law clerk on 08.24.20 at 5:47 pm
Unless you’re lucky like Garth, why would any one decide to settle down in Toronto and pay C$999,999 for a house?
—————————————————————-

What can you buy for $999K in Toronto???

#72 MF on 08.24.20 at 7:19 pm


It is impossible central banks will not try to increase base lending rates as economies reopen. If they do not up the cost of money, they will be out of bullets when the next downturn comes. Without CB firepower you might call that one a ‘depression’. – Garth”

-Looks like they are already out of bullets. It took rates 12 years to rise a teenie weenie bit, but 30 seconds to crash back to zero. They look like they are painted into a corner of their own making.

I know I sound like that weird millennial realist (or was it blessed Canadian millennial?) poster but it looks like as long as boomers are in charge of the central banks, rates will be low to “protect” asset prices at nosebleed levels. Someone else (everyone who is younger than 50) will have to deal with it later so who cares seems to be their (flawed) logic.

I get regular reminders from my economic subscriptions where people can ask questions. Any time a young person asks how to become wealthy some idiot (but not all) mentions real estate…but conveniently ignores how interest rates have been surpressed for 30 years to puff up the crap that these older generations accumulated. Total different ball game coming in the next thirty years. Low interest rates are like holding your breath under water. Eventually you have to come up for air. I feel bad for whichever central bankers has to face the music.

MF

A CB-Boomer conspiracy theory. Sounds like you have WFH syndrome. – Garth

#73 Km on 08.24.20 at 7:22 pm

don’t worry there will be some form of government debt relief for all the greater fools. The bubble will never be allowed to pop.

#74 Nonplused on 08.24.20 at 7:24 pm

“No matter what President Harris or PM Freeland do.”

Terrifying. But all to possible. But why not? 2020 has come with every other natural and man made disaster one could think of. Thank Dog the liquor stores are still open.

#75 the Jaguar on 08.24.20 at 7:28 pm

HOLY CRAP! Even Felix got deleted last night!
# 218 post.

Not sure what you said Felix, but if it had anything to do with WFH, be advised you are not allowed to go back to the office. Check out what happens when you leave your cat and it misses you………..WFH for Felix forever.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cx14ohE6nHs

#76 In Garth, Not God We Trust on 08.24.20 at 7:31 pm

#50 Lazy Law clerk on 08.24.20 at 5:47 pm
“Unless you’re lucky like Garth…”
——————————————————————
Luck?? You think the bearded mystic oracle, lone voice of reason in the financial wasteland of Canada, former Minister of National Revenues, scrupulous politician in a swamp of swindlers, NYT best selling author, near future recipient of the Order of Canada, devoted husband of 49 years, best friend to canines throughout the land, award winning financial blogger, denouncer of the real estate cartel, long suffering moderator of whacko blog dogs, tea leaf reading financial prognosticator without equal, Harley riding badass, sage of Lunenberg, denouncer of corrupt politicians and lastly but not leastly, an all round jolly good fellow, has not done any of the above because of luck!

#77 MF on 08.24.20 at 7:31 pm

62 Bill on 08.24.20 at 6:20 pm

Annnd then you woke up.

No one who is successful believes the bs conspiracy theory garbage you seem to agree with. No point. Those who are successful are the elites themselves, set the rules themselves, and don’t sit online and complain. They get creative an adapt.

I haven’t heard any solutions from you ever. Just a list of complaints wrapped in a flowery coat of online memes created by 14 year olds in other countries targeted to gullible westerners to take as truth.

MF

#78 MF on 08.24.20 at 7:33 pm

A CB-Boomer conspiracy theory. Sounds like you have WFH syndrome. – Garth

I wish! Waking up later. No ttc. No need for deodorant or showers. Full beard. Hair a mess. Underwear. Sounds like a utopia to me.

MF

#79 Kool Aid on 08.24.20 at 7:46 pm

Is this a market mirage? Can rates ever really normalize in our lifetime?

These are the lowest real interest rates in history.

All time highs across virtually all assets, this is madness, surging indebtedness will not mask the major insolvency & looming bankruptcy wave, not to mention that this RE market feels seriously toppy here. Debt noose, no thank you… who ever is currently buying better have a superb long term plan.

Happy go lucky 1%ers are also fearful, all this talk of multiple new sources of taxation is burdensome.

Aggressive taxation only stokes the fire of change, not the kind that creates solutions either… more like the kind that identifies advantaged tax structures and jurisdictions, the highly skilled can work anywhere. I can only image the Federal policy directives that await us.

Nobody told me there’d be days like these
Nobody told me there’d be days like these
Nobody told me there’d be days like these
Strange days indeed, most peculiar mama

#80 Flop... on 08.24.20 at 7:47 pm

I’ve got 2 options.

Go to Canadian Tire and buy a cheap dingy and start paddling or just sit tight.

If I paddled 10 kilometres a day it would take me over two and a half years just to see things are just as messed up in Australia, and then return.

Might as well just sit still.

The major banks in Australia are giving mortgages to people on Australia’s version of CERB.

Maybe I’ll stop in Fiji on the way down to see if they’ve lost the plot too…

M46BC

#81 willworkforpickles on 08.24.20 at 7:48 pm

Harris & Freeland
Garth…A Prophet for a day.

#82 Guelph Guru on 08.24.20 at 7:50 pm

If the low rates of 2009 started the housing market roulette, then the 2020 low rates should trigger the next upside run. Right?
The assumption here is that low rates are used to borrow capital to increase productivity. Start factories to make better things which others would buy from us. Thus increasing our buying power.
We have made a joke of this, by gorging debt without increasing an ounce of our productivity. So when the bills come due there is no choice but bankruptcy. Unfortunately our socialist structure makes the entire country liable.
What is the way out of this? inflation I guess. But how much can we sustain?

#83 Nonplused on 08.24.20 at 7:54 pm

#13 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.20 at 2:29 pm

“The Baby Boomers might just be the most fortunate generation ever born in North America. They cannot lose.”

I dunno I think it is a pretty good time for anyone to be alive in North America. Unless of course the only metric one considers is the price of a house in downtown Toronto.

But somebody is obviously buying these outrageously expensive houses, so somebody has the money to do so. And like all things market, house prices respond to supply and demand. The simple fact is there aren’t enough houses in downtown Toronto for everyone to have one, so the people that have the cash get them and everyone else has to move further away or up a condo tower. There is nothing anybody can do about it.

When the boomers start to retire and move out to the ‘burbs, downtown houses will still be worth more than ones further away because the laws of supply and demand will not go away, and unless Freeland finishes off the economy for good there will be rich millennials in due course as well.

The goal of affordable housing for everyone might be achievable but not if they all want to live on the same block. No economic system is going to change that. Capital gains taxes on houses are not going to change that. Higher income taxes are not going to change that. Raising the HST isn’t going to change that. Even raising interest rates isn’t going to change that. The rich will still have the nicest cars, the prettiest wives, and the most expensive houses.

#84 Dave Paulson on 08.24.20 at 8:01 pm

Garth, wouldn’t it be cheaper just paying higher interest rates to people on their savings investments then all this money printing, handouts, out of control spending.

A 60% increase in the national Canada debt in 1 year or less. Even at 5% to 6% interest rates, that almost 10-12 years simple interest accumulated. They did it in 1 year or less and by what you were saying a possible $2 trillion Canada national debt, it could easily be a 285% increase or 20-25 years of accumulated interest.

I remember the cutting of taxes by Conservative governments and Liberals, NDP complaining that all these tax cuts would increase government debts, deficits for years, decades but now all the so called low interest rates saved by governments is gone in one shot. It is sickening and these lies, thievery going on is going to make Canada a second possible third world country.

Most Canadians are so clueless and ignorant and don’t want to believe the facts, truth and failure of the backwards ways of freebies. They will be partially responsible for being paid off and destroying our still but slowly slipping away great country.

Socialism, communists, marxists are not your friends, they are quite the opposite. Don’t get fooled, suckered in the allure of free money, free benefits, handouts etc. Look at history and around the world, it never ends well, in fact it is an epic disaster. These policies and economics of these left, socialists, communists, marxists are ruinous in nature and designed to failed big.

#85 Cto on 08.24.20 at 8:06 pm

Garth
Interest rates increasing ?
At this point, it doesn’t seem like rates will increase in a lifetime…with housing too big to fail, and gigantic gov debt, and of course wimpy central banks.
They’ve already tried,…and failed…
Rates have been dropping for 20 years, cant stop it now.
They will pick and choose their items for cpi and switch it up when they have to substantiat another negative adjustment. This is what CBs do and do real good!!!

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.24.20 at 8:06 pm

@#78 sMurF
“I wish! Waking up later. No ttc. No need for deodorant or showers. Full beard. Hair a mess. Underwear. Sounds like a utopia to me.”

++++

You forgot “free” money.
Trudeau will be more than willing to oblige.

And you cant blame his $350 BILLION (so far) deficit on Boomers.
Its the CERBians and their legal ganja that will tax you to death……….

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.24.20 at 8:10 pm

@#79 Floppie
“If I paddled 10 kilometres a day it would take me over two and a half years just to see things are just as messed up in Australia, and then return.”
+++++

I think Patrick Watson tried kayaking across the Pacific in 1981 to protest the Whale Hunt…..he made it to Seattle……
A dinghy would be a tad less stream lined than a kayak

I just wanna know……
Why would you want to paddle back to Shitz Creek?

#88 Lenient on 08.24.20 at 8:12 pm

Got info from one of the big 5 that for straight up renewals, people will not have to be re-qualified using present income, current credit, or ability to meet the stress test. Even deferrals during this pandemic will not matter. So, even if people wouldn’t qualify now because family income has been halved, or a second mortgage has been taken out elsewhere, or more credit debt has been racked up, the bank will still offer a renewal! Seems pretty unbelievable that current income and credit wouldn’t factor into renewing, especially at this volatile time. And those deferrals? Pfft.

#89 Dogman01 on 08.24.20 at 8:18 pm

Chrysta Freeland TED Talk 2013

https://www.ted.com/talks/chrystia_freeland_the_rise_of_the_new_global_super_rich?utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare

Lot’s of good points, little I disagree with. Recognizing and acknowledging the collapsing middle class since at least the 1990’s…
The middle class Frog being boiled slowly over the last 30 years.

Technology, Crony capitalism and that Giant Sucking sounds of jobs moving away from the high cost Western World due to Global Free Trade (Thanks Ross Perot).

On a long enough timeline this trend will not end well for our society. We will look more like a Brazil or China than a middle class western democracy.

#90 mike from mtl on 08.24.20 at 8:21 pm

Same story with the Americans, rock bottom mortgage rates, RE goes ballistic. No they are not any more ‘prudent’ since their correction, difference is we’ve had going on 30 years straight up gains.

Depression level economy but who cares, just buya da house!

No, Interest rates will not be sticking +2% within our lifetimes. Japanada! Too bad we couldn’t get their awesome infrastructure with the deal.

#91 Shawn on 08.24.20 at 8:32 pm

House prices have already gone up >25% since the CMHC first said they would fall 20%.

Factually incorrect. – Garth

#92 Phylis on 08.24.20 at 8:32 pm

Time for a new idea. Add a review quiz to the end of each post. 100% correct answers unlocks access to the comments section. Show some effort, gain a voice. Think about the post, earn entry.
Kinda like captcha but garthitized.
(Unfortunately, more work on the front end, some savings on the back)

#93 fishman on 08.24.20 at 8:35 pm

Whatever California did or is doing wrong, keep doing it. B.C. is making a fortune supplying them with electricity on demand. Its all legit. Not like when Enron was running their scam.
What do I think of the Cons new guy? Dunno, does he appeal to the kids? Looks like he’s got no hair. Not a good start.

#94 Nonplused on 08.24.20 at 8:36 pm

Hmmm lots of talk about California’s energy grid today. Slightly off topic but I’ll bite because I was there for the 2000 energy crisis. (Well, not there physically but in that market.)

So 2000 was a policy mistake, Enron merely took total advantage of it. SoCal and PG&E were forced to sell most of their power generation and buy the power from the new owners on the spot market in the name of deregulation. But on the other hand legislation was passed fixing the price they could charge their customers. This meant that the new owners (Ernon, Reliant, others) could drive wholesale prices sky high with well timed “maintenance issues” but PG&E and Socal could not pass the costs along to retail customers encouraging conservation. It was the biggest short squeeze in history at least to that point. They also squeezed the gas side by encouraging Socal and PG&E not to fill their storage using swaps and forwards, but when the time came there wasn’t enough pipe to deliver the gas they needed from out of state, so gas prices went to the moon too. What Enron, Reliant, et. al. did was criminal, but had it not been for the regulations it never could have happened.

Then we get to the current reliance on “green” (wind, solar) energy which is by law I think 33%. Sound great except that the wind doesn’t blow every day and the sun never shines at night. There is no way to meet peak demand without some sort of backup generation when that much of your power comes from intermittent sources. So this was also a regulatory induced crisis.

It also highlights the folly of going green given the current lack of battery storage options. All the power the grid gets from green energy must be backed up with some sort of fossil fuel generation on standby. That’s a lot of capital because you have to build everything twice.

Hopefully much will be learned from the California experience, but I doubt it.

#95 willworkforpickles on 08.24.20 at 8:37 pm

Ace Goodheart…the frenzied fools you speak of will become fewer and fewer in about 2 maybe 3 months, bought and sold with every frenzied sale they put themselves into. The reckless buying/spending you are seeing isn’t widespread or the norm. It is FOMO gone wild in various locales – pockets of frenzied focus… mainly among those who believe they can trade monthly rent for a house and a mortgage and still come out on top.
Do they have an idea yet that ship has sailed?
At the insane prices they pay, they will but soon.
As unsustainable as this temporary trend will prove to be, you are right about the lucky boomers who have and will cash in… but for a little while longer and only of the ones who do sell now I might add.

#96 Ronaldo on 08.24.20 at 8:41 pm

#71 Stan Brooks Psychiatrist on 08.24.20 at 7:05 pm
#50 Lazy Law clerk on 08.24.20 at 5:47 pm
Unless you’re lucky like Garth, why would any one decide to settle down in Toronto and pay C$999,999 for a house?
—————————————————————-

What can you buy for $999K in Toronto???
———————————————
This:

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2020/07/tiny-toronto-house-listed-1-million/

#97 CL on 08.24.20 at 8:45 pm

You should just stop writing about Canadian real estate. If pandemic doesn’t correct people’s poor *choices*….nothing will. the government is all about rewarding bad behavior. All debtors will be saved in perpetuity.

#98 WWG1WGA on 08.24.20 at 8:46 pm

DELETED

#99 truefacts on 08.24.20 at 8:49 pm

Garth – from a previous post where I mentioned that Peter Mackay was NOT a shoe-in…

Your reply:

“I’m nobody’s fan, but PM is the frontrunner and EOT is a socon…” – Garth

Well, I think it’s obvious that conservatives did not want a liberal lite candidate, so growth from Mackay after his shaky first ballot was telling. When the Star endorses you, that’s pretty much a kiss of death in conservative circles…

Thoughts Garth?

Trudeau majority. – Garth

#100 Flop... on 08.24.20 at 8:50 pm

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.24.20 at 8:10 pm
@#79 Floppie
“If I paddled 10 kilometres a day it would take me over two and a half years just to see things are just as messed up in Australia, and then return.”
+++++

I think Patrick Watson tried kayaking across the Pacific in 1981 to protest the Whale Hunt…..he made it to Seattle……
A dinghy would be a tad less stream lined than a kayak.

///////////////

I would cheat.

Paddle out 10 km and then hitch a ride on the mythical Pacific Plastic Gyre, hop off when I get snagged on The Great Barrier Reef.

No Erin O’Toole slogans?

Conservatives.

Don’t be a fool, vote O’Toole.

Liberals.

O’Toole, Oh No..

NDP.

Erin O’Toole? He couldn’t be as unforgettable as Andrew Scheer.Could he?

Greens.

Can we put a solar panel on his head…

M46BC

#101 truefacts on 08.24.20 at 9:09 pm

#98 “Trudeau majority.” – Garth

I hope not. If the election is soon and bucks are still flowing and the masses are still cowering, perhaps trudeau wins it. If it’s a year from now when the bill comes due and people have forgotten about Covid, I don’t know… I mean Churchill lost shortly after WW2!

I know you might have personal animosity towards Harper because of how things unfolded, but you have to admit, he was not a Liberal in disguise, and he racked up 3 election victories before defeat. Just saying.
(I hope mentioning Harper does not make this message automatically delete).
Perhaps you can run again where you are now – although Dorothy might say no!

Politics is mathematics. Harper won because of a strong Jack Layton. – Garth

#102 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.24.20 at 9:19 pm

Just watching the Republican National Convention.
No surprises.
Trump, God and Country. In that order.

#103 Steven Rowlandson on 08.24.20 at 9:39 pm

More often than not you will get the answer ,” it is never enough”, when it is asked how much is enough for rents and home prices. Land lords, realtors and home owners don’t really recognize any limits to their greed. They think their customers are made of money.
This is part of the reason why the western world and its founding people are going down the tubes.
Instead of doing or investing in something productive they find it easier to indulge in usury and price gouging.

#104 SoggyShorts on 08.24.20 at 9:49 pm

#207 Tater on 08.24.20 at 12:24 pm
#15 SoggyShorts on 08.23.20 at 11:53 am
You can load your ETFs in this tool and see how it worked out historically: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation
…the etf version: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

**********************
Thanks!

#105 Felix on 08.24.20 at 9:49 pm

#75 the Jaguar

HOLY CRAP! Even Felix got deleted last night!
# 218 post.

Not sure what you said Felix, but if it had anything to do with WFH, be advised you are not allowed to go back to the office. Check out what happens when you leave your cat and it misses you………..WFH for Felix forever.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cx14ohE6nHs

()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()

I am sure I did not say anything dogawful. It may have been just a mild allergic reaction to high feline IQ. Common among dog lovers.

#106 Re elect NO ONE on 08.24.20 at 9:53 pm

No Erin O’Toole slogans?

O’Toole and dye?

I expect the NDP will prop up the corrupt Liberals= no election anytime soon

#107 Lee on 08.24.20 at 9:53 pm

Trump wins election big. So does Trudeau.

#108 AM in MN on 08.24.20 at 10:05 pm

The thing I fail to grasp abut current right-wingers is why you think in extremes. Of course the largest, most technologically-sophisticated economy in the world will never have engineered rolling blackouts. Do you believe in the Q pedophile conspiracy, too? – Garth

——————————————————-

What is the difference between an “engineered rolling blackout” and blackouts that were predicted by engineers doing very basic math but having their voices go unheard because they don’t drink the kool-aid?

I’ve been in many conferences where the green kool-aid is drunk and they very much believe that first you shut down the functioning power plants, and then when crisis strikes, people will be motivated enough to pay for more solar, wind and batteries.

The market is moving towards these batteries anyway, it’s past what the government needs to push. The big end users are doing the pushing and the market is responding.

California has more than 1500MW @ 4hr or so of battery systems under construction now and will be on-line by next summer. That’s enough to bridge the gap they just had. I’m happy to sell equipment to them, there’s a lot of money being spent.

I work with engineers in these systems all day long, the future is going that way, it’s just a matter of cost.

I remember seeing a clip of some woman waving her hydro bill at Jr. in a town hall and moaning about the cost, asking him not to add another carbon tax. Not sure if she was listening in 2009 when the Green Energy Act was passed, but the stated goal was to double energy costs so people would use less.

If people don’t want to use natural gas and have cheap power, so be it.

As a social conservative and right winger, what bothers me is that with 1 in 8 children having the government as their daddy, bad things will happen, especially when the government hits a debt wall. Then the social breakdown really kicks into gear. Like watching a slow motion car crash.

People won’t be in a mood to do much about it as long as the money is free…

Harper never pushed anything in this area, felt he couldn’t if he wanted to stay in power when the people want govt. as their daddy!

#109 truefacts on 08.24.20 at 10:06 pm

Last comment and I’ll shut up for the day (promise)…
Your comment #100:

“Politics is mathematics. Harper won because of a strong Jack Layton.” – Garth

Layton was more devastating to the Bloc – the whole “Orange Crush” basically stopped at the Ottawa River.

What do the stats say?
Trudeau won in 2015 with 39.47% of vote.
Harper won in 2011 with 39.62% of vote.

A CONSERVATIVE got a good share of the popular vote without being Liberal lite (slightly more than the Libs got in the next election).
I understand the winds of change in politics is hard to predict, but why couldn’t 39% of people vote for O’toole (and hand him the government).

What would make him so repugnant to voters when they did support Harper?

#110 Tyberius on 08.24.20 at 10:17 pm

Never Enough?

Went to Costco on Saturday (Langley BC) and I have to say there’s now a >90% compliance on masking. My wife both felt it was probably <80% about a month ago.

It was interesting as we crossed paths with other unmasked shoppers and on few occassions we ended up acknowledging each other – like Harley riders when they encounter other HD riders on the road.

Then we looked in the refrigerated area for sheep's milk – but there was none available. Puzzling, as there seemed to be a lot of sheep around!

What do people/Garth think about Leslyn Lewis? No experience in politics – but then again, neither did Trump!

#111 Stan Brooks Psychiatrist on 08.24.20 at 10:23 pm

#95 Ronaldo on 08.24.20 at 8:41 pm
#71 Stan Brooks Psychiatrist on 08.24.20 at 7:05 pm
#50 Lazy Law clerk on 08.24.20 at 5:47 pm
Unless you’re lucky like Garth, why would any one decide to settle down in Toronto and pay C$999,999 for a house?
—————————————————————-

What can you buy for $999K in Toronto???
———————————————
This:

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2020/07/tiny-toronto-house-listed-1-million/
————————————————————-
Au contraire mon ami, that little garden shed masquerading as a house sold for $800k over asking…so the question still remains, what can you buy for a paltry $999k in Toronto?

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/this-tiny-toronto-house-just-sold-for-800k-over-asking-.

#112 Stan Brooks on 08.24.20 at 10:35 pm

#50 Lazy Law clerk on 08.24.20 at 5:47 pm

Unless you’re lucky like Garth, why would any one decide to settle down in Toronto and pay C$999,999 for a house?

A sane person won’t.

The broken jobless poor schmucks living there can’t afford it so they need ‘help’ manifested in credit orgy and mad money printing that destroys the value of money.

4 k for a condo in downtown Toronto?

That is pretty much New York prices with the exception that prices there are actually declining and it is full of rich people, not credit junkies.

With half of that, even less you can live in beautiful sunny places in Spain, Italy and France, places with much better health care, quality of food and weather.

Work remotely with far better quality of life, no commute, maybe even buy an organic farm or have a real vineyard, not the pathetic look-alikes in the Niagara region.

Went to Greece recently. Great, clean sea, beautiful coast and beaches, cheap prices, absolutely amazing fish and food, fantastic weather.

I like it that way. So stay where you are credit junkies and mental basket cases, enjoy the great GTA. We don’t need you here.

Cheers,

#113 dogwhistle on 08.24.20 at 10:36 pm

#76 In Garth, Not God We Trust on 08.24.20 at 7:31 pm

Luck?? You think the bearded mystic oracle, lone voice of reason in the financial wasteland of Canada, former Minister of National Revenues, scrupulous politician in a swamp of swindlers, NYT best selling author, near future recipient of the Order of Canada, devoted husband of 49 years, best friend to canines throughout the land, award winning financial blogger, denouncer of the real estate cartel, long suffering moderator of whacko blog dogs, tea leaf reading financial prognosticator without equal, Harley riding badass, sage of Lunenberg, denouncer of corrupt politicians and lastly but not leastly, an all round jolly good fellow, has not done any of the above because of luck!

——————————————————————

All that boot licking will still not get you invited to the next lobster fest. Only repenting realtors are invited.

#114 Stealth on 08.24.20 at 10:44 pm

Agreed with the outcome of Harris and Freeland it is nearly inevitable.
What opportunities will come abound from that?

Thank you.

#115 PastThePeak on 08.24.20 at 10:50 pm

#84 Cto on 08.24.20 at 8:06 pm
Garth
Interest rates increasing ?
At this point, it doesn’t seem like rates will increase in a lifetime…with housing too big to fail, and gigantic gov debt, and of course wimpy central banks.
They’ve already tried,…and failed…
Rates have been dropping for 20 years, cant stop it now.
They will pick and choose their items for cpi and switch it up when they have to substantiat another negative adjustment. This is what CBs do and do real good!!!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You are under the mistaken assumption that CB’s have no limitations to controlling the yield on all debt maturities, no matter how much the debt levels increase. It would be fatal to assume that the 0% rates of today will last forever…let alone 5+ years.

#116 mathman on 08.24.20 at 10:53 pm

Like everything in life now – the sticker price is irrelevant, the only thing that matters is the monthly payment. It is beyond me how anyone takes on a $1 Mil mtg. Yes, the cost of money is cheap, surely some of these folks must have kids and other expenses. $300k gross household income is not what it used to be and frankly with that amount of debt, a few kids and cars – they are likely in the red each month.

When rates move the other direction, they will end up paying twice the value of the home in interest costs over the 30+ years they carry the debt. Folks that make these types of choices are also likely refinancing every few years and perpetually praying and extending as they say.

Buy 75% of what you can afford, bank the rest and life well. Never pay a premium for anything with a steering wheel.

Math

#117 Canuck on 08.24.20 at 10:55 pm

Did you not read my last line? – Garth
_______________________________________________

Freeland has already touted a green energy policy. Like Trudeau, she has no use for western Canadian energy and you think she’s the right fit. That’s why you don’t understand, accept or respect the growing numbers in WEXIT. People tend to mock what they don’t understand.

#118 meslippery on 08.24.20 at 10:59 pm

Erin O’Toole?
Really?
Was there no lesson learned with Mr. Scheer?

Social conservatism remains to be a insipid hinderance to forming a government for the Cons in Canada… and with the Wexit Party gathering troops, get ready for 6 more years at least of Liberal governments.

Whether the knuckle-draggers on this blog like it or not, Cons need to move a little left to form government. This was not it. – Garth
—————–
T2 is here cause the rich made good jobs go away vote for his free money and live the good life.
Someone let the good jobs leave must have been the law makers. shop and work local the hell with globalization.

#119 DrC on 08.24.20 at 11:09 pm

The only way to equalize the distribution of wealth is to increase inflation and set taxes on wealth. Let’s be honest, the real inflation is not 2-3%. So you will never see houses for cheap again. Ever. Garth, you say that they have to increase the price of money for the next downturn. Giving away money worked fine this time! What makes you think it won’t be the same next time? Also consider the negative rates. It is a pprobability and this probability gets higher every year. Remember how making a 100k from selling your house was like “woooow” 7 years ago? Now making around 300k is “meh”. Here’s your inflation and value of money.

#120 Don Guillermo on 08.24.20 at 11:34 pm

#93 Nonplused on 08.24.20 at 8:36 pm
Hmmm lots of talk about California’s energy grid today. Slightly off topic but I’ll bite because I was there for the 2000 energy crisis. (Well, not there physically but in that market.)

So 2000 was a policy mistake, Enron merely took total advantage of it. SoCal and PG&E were forced to sell most of their power generation and buy the power from the new owners on the spot market in the name of deregulation. But on the other hand legislation was passed fixing the price they could charge their customers. This meant that the new owners (Ernon, Reliant, others) could drive wholesale prices sky high with well timed “maintenance issues” but PG&E and Socal could not pass the costs along to retail customers encouraging conservation. It was the biggest short squeeze in history at least to that point. They also squeezed the gas side by encouraging Socal and PG&E not to fill their storage using swaps and forwards, but when the time came there wasn’t enough pipe to deliver the gas they needed from out of state, so gas prices went to the moon too. What Enron, Reliant, et. al. did was criminal, but had it not been for the regulations it never could have happened.

Then we get to the current reliance on “green” (wind, solar) energy which is by law I think 33%. Sound great except that the wind doesn’t blow every day and the sun never shines at night. There is no way to meet peak demand without some sort of backup generation when that much of your power comes from intermittent sources. So this was also a regulatory induced crisis.

It also highlights the folly of going green given the current lack of battery storage options. All the power the grid gets from green energy must be backed up with some sort of fossil fuel generation on standby. That’s a lot of capital because you have to build everything twice.

Hopefully much will be learned from the California experience, but I doubt it.
*************************************

Well said. Coles notes: bad policy!

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.24.20 at 11:34 pm

“Trudeau Majority”
++++

God help us all.

#122 Opee on 08.24.20 at 11:45 pm

Garth, re leadership. So Peter Mackay wins first ballot and looses on the next two, why? are they afraid of a swamp? Now we have someone who is the shadow of the previous leader. A very Big mistake, can you explain why the C voters seem to shoot themselves in the foot, do they not want to lead this country? Mackay has qualities like; leadership, majorportfolio experience, smarts,aggressive, a winning attitude and a personality that will resonate with many voters. The voting system should change is my thought with the C party. It’s like kids who change their minds from their first decision!

#123 Glide Path on 08.25.20 at 12:15 am

DELETED

#124 willworkforpickles on 08.25.20 at 12:26 am

#95 Ronaldo
Ronaldo…thanx for sharing…what a palace.

#125 AisA on 08.25.20 at 12:57 am

The job of actual centrists is not to chase the ever-moving left to the left, the job of actual centrists is to stand still so the extremists on both sides look as silly as they deserve. If CMHC says 20 they mean 40, bank on it. Trump is a perfect example of a consummate centrist berated by the left for being extreme right when the reality he is the center from just 20 years ago. Progressives can never progress enough.

#126 NSNG on 08.25.20 at 1:30 am

Whether the knuckle-draggers on this blog like it or not, Cons need to move a little left to form government. This was not it. – Garth

===============================

With all due respect, aren’t four left wing parties enough for this country?

#127 Nonplused on 08.25.20 at 2:01 am

#78 MF on 08.24.20 at 7:33 pm
A CB-Boomer conspiracy theory. Sounds like you have WFH syndrome. – Garth

I wish! Waking up later. No ttc. No need for deodorant or showers. Full beard. Hair a mess. Underwear. Sounds like a utopia to me.

MF

———————————

Ok but understand if you have a full beard face masks are near useless. I spent 2 summers “Scott Packed” up (those air tanks and masks the fire fighters use) and no facial hair was allowed, except a moustache because the Scott Pack mask covered from chin to forehead. So if you have ever wondered why fire fighters often sport a moustache but never a beard, now you know. Beards can make them dead.

#128 Arcticfox on 08.25.20 at 6:51 am

Remember I thought we’d soon hear symmetrical or average inflation targeting measures ahead.. This will be an interesting needle to thread. Will yield curve control(ycc), which recent fed minutes downplayed, have to be made official policy next. Rates can’t be allowed to move up too rapidly as just too much debt at every level of society.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/24/powell-set-to-deliver-profoundly-consequential-speech-changing-how-the-fed-views-inflation.html?__twitter_impression=true

#129 BillyBob on 08.25.20 at 7:00 am

#126 Nonplused on 08.25.20 at 2:01 am
#78 MF on 08.24.20 at 7:33 pm
A CB-Boomer conspiracy theory. Sounds like you have WFH syndrome. – Garth

I wish! Waking up later. No ttc. No need for deodorant or showers. Full beard. Hair a mess. Underwear. Sounds like a utopia to me.

MF

———————————

Ok but understand if you have a full beard face masks are near useless. I spent 2 summers “Scott Packed” up (those air tanks and masks the fire fighters use) and no facial hair was allowed, except a moustache because the Scott Pack mask covered from chin to forehead. So if you have ever wondered why fire fighters often sport a moustache but never a beard, now you know. Beards can make them dead.

=================================================

Same reason for most military personnel especially fighter pilots who wear masks continuously. Also for airline pilots who may need to don them quickly in a decompression.

I can think of at least a few people who I’m sure are grateful MF loves WFH so much.

His co-workers.

#130 NoName on 08.25.20 at 7:16 am

@ Nonplused

The rich will still have the nicest cars, the prettiest wives, and the most expensive houses.

___

Cars and houses maybe, but wifes Iam not so sure about it. It takes just one time with silicon doll before you get full aprishiation for real woman, that works cooks, clean and don’t complain without prenap…

#131 Opee on 08.25.20 at 7:30 am

Last comment on the C’s voting for a new leader. First vote; Mackay wins, then voting disappears and they go to points! Points!since when do we elect (do canadians vote by points), no, and now an otoole. Good luck.

#132 Do we have all the facts on 08.25.20 at 8:29 am

The current environment surrounding the housing market across Canada reminds me of the time that car dealers stimulated sales by reducing interest rates on financing to zero. Somehow customers viewed zero interest as getting access to money for nothing.

I think in the back of most customers minds they realized that the dealer had increased the extrinsic value of their purchase to cover the cost providing free credit but an additional $4,000 spread over 84 months increased monthly payments by less than $50.00/month so where do I sign.

In the case of housing a $1,000,000 mortgage at 3.0% costs the same as a $1,100,000 mortgage at 2.0% and the same as a $1,250,000 mortgage at 1.0% and the same as $1,400,0O0 repaid over 25 years without any interest charges.

My point is that extrinsic values are not based on logic or reasonable thought but on emotion and the feeling that you are getting a bargain. Once you reach the bottom, the increase in property values previously driven by a reduction in interest rates disappears.

The consistent message in this blog is that devoting as much as 35% of your gross income to a single asset in the hope that it will continue to increase in value by 5/6% per year is not prudent. At some point, and that point it getting closer every day, the extrinsic value of housing will begin to move towards an intrinsic value determined by the income of potential buyers. The toolbox is empty and average house prices will adjust to satisfy a market without government driven incentives.

It has been a great ride for many home owners but even the most optimistic cheerleaders must acknowledge that the ride is coming to an end. Like musical chairs or tulips in Holland there is always a danger of being stuck when the music stops.

Et monuit qui emit

#133 willworkforpickles on 08.25.20 at 8:50 am

“A mortgage of $1 million (more common than you might think) at 1.59% carries for just over four grand a month.”

Forever QE will sooner rather than later hit the interest rate wall. Taxation and inflation won’t prove to be the economic saviors.
In 5 years that monthly payment will be north of 10k.
Unemployment? likely still off the scales.
Right now US jobless figures are more than twice as high as the highest figures recorded in 2009 and still climbing. With support payments ended and drastic cuts to support rejected,…where do the unemployed have to turn to but the streets takin it to the street.
…I said it here a couple of days ago, social unrest is only a tiny spark away from ever increasing disorder south of the border.
Rioters, looters, pyromaniacs aside from the needy unemployed masses are not bent on cause but their own greed and lust for mayhem.
The George Floyd cause and concern demonstrations were and are the perfect cover for anarchists who could care less about any cause.
In two and a half weeks the charges in the George Floyd case likely will be dismissed and dropped where all hell threatens to break lose. This regardless of light shed on the resist arrest by George Floyd enabling him to ingest the fentanyl he had hidden on him in a lethal dose that asphyxiated him and caused his death.
Point being, it merely takes a small spark now to ignite mass peril and maniacal pursuit in this perpetually dying/dividing nation, and nothing and no one is going to fix it or the economy here or north of the border.

#134 Stan Brooks Psychiatrist on 08.25.20 at 9:06 am

#118 DrC on 08.24.20 at 11:09 pm
The only way to equalize the distribution of wealth is to increase inflation and set taxes on wealth. Let’s be honest, the real inflation is not 2-3%.
—————————————————————–

Oh great….We just got Stanley nice and calm and now you spoil everything by posting that inflation is not the official 2-3%. Stanley is frothing and babbling away and pointing to infthelation charts on the rubber wall in his room. Expect to hear from him soon, he has starting typing on his keyboard…

#135 TurnerNation on 08.25.20 at 9:17 am

Don’t forget the war raging globally. Here it comes. I knew they are keeping Sport stadiums closed for a reason.

Our global elites flexed their muscles, shut down the planet and our rights. Keep wearing your Freedom Mask in the hope they are returned. But don’t hold your breath

Blockchain…that thing we use for absolutely nothing. But why? We are the blockchain. Our DNA is being collected (just get your swab, or mail it into them avec a fee). Blockchain = CELL BLOCK CHAIN.
Always our travel rights. But not without the Mark – the A.I. will determine your movements, globally:

[emphasis in original:]

LOOP INSIGHTS AND KABN NORTH AMERICA PARTNER TO LAUNCH AI DRIVEN MERCHANT AND CONSUMER REWARDS PROGRAMS, SECURED BY BIOMETRICS AND BLOCKCHAIN

TOGETHER, THE COMPANIES WILL CREATE A VERIFIED DIGITAL ID CHECK-IN SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE VENUES
As the world goes more digital and more “check-ins” are required for contact tracing purposes, KABN NA can also enhance Loop’s contact tracing check-in solution with its proprietary blockchain technology. The global blockchain market size is expected to grow from USD 3.0 billion in 2020 to USD 39.7 billion by 2025 , at an impressive Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 67.3% during 2020-2025 (source: http://www.marketsandmarkets.com ).

KABN NA’s Liquid Avatar program increases the security within Loop’s services. Customer information and identities are protected by blockchain technology- the highest level of protection. This identity verification enhancement for Loop comes at a great time. It accelerates conversations with large scale business development opportunities, such as schools, stadiums, and governments that are reopening and seek fast and secure contact tracing check-in platforms.

#136 Dharma Bum on 08.25.20 at 9:23 am

Canadians are so unadventurous.

Torontonians, especially. What is it about Taranna that people cling to? (I’m not a die-hard Toronto hater – I was born here and live here – but due to the timing of my birth, I am unaffected by the cost of living mayhem here).

I simply don’t understand why young people can’t pick up and get outta Dodge to homestead (so to speak) out in Saskatchewan, or something, where they can live in a house for 25% of the cost of a Toronto house, and figure out a simpler way of life.

Toronto is like some sort of evil magnet. It just keeps getting fuller, bigger, more congested, unfriendlier, filthier, more generic, more boring, more sprawling, more crime infested, more homelessness, smoggier, and definitely way more expensive. Yet the masses flock here like flies to dung.

Who wins?

Boomers that bought their homes here 40 years ago.

Kids: why are you so attracted to this place? It’ll eat you up financially. Trust me, the “excitement” of urbanity fades, long after the unpayable mortgage remains.

#137 Dharma Bum on 08.25.20 at 9:30 am

#128 Billy Bob

So if you have ever wondered why fire fighters often sport a moustache but never a beard, now you know.
——————————————————————–

Really?

An all along I thought that it was so they could look like 70’s porn stars when posing for those stupid firefighter calendars!

#138 MF on 08.25.20 at 9:36 am

Canuck on 08.24.20 at 10:55 pm

People can’t understand something that has no logic.

MF

#139 TurnerNation on 08.25.20 at 9:40 am

Here’s more – a bracelet for workers that vibrates when you are not maintaining ‘social distancing’ (the greatest weapon ever unleashed to destroy economy, society.)
This is full on prison, we lost WW3, and likely WW2 – it just staved this off for a few decades under the illusion of ‘democracy’
These prison rules are not going away, we are still in Phase 1 of the rollout globally, the Compliance Stage.

Enough offences and you will get locked down by your smart phone and employer, I am sure.
All done via A.I. – see humans would refuse orders. They cannot risk that:

“Facedrive Inc.’s health services division, Facedrive Health, shall be conducting a first-stage implementation starting this week for its flagship COVID-19 contact tracing app, TraceSCAN, with Riverside Natural Foods.

TraceSCAN is an innovative COVID19 contact tracing app featuring advanced Bluetooth enabled wearable technology that complements and extends the reach of COVID Alert, the contact tracing mobile app recently endorsed by the province of Ontario.

TraceSCAN is an innovative technology combining an AI-enabled mobile application along with wearables devices built on the nRF52 Bluetooth chipset that’s being used by the world’s leading wearable manufacturers. The TraceSCAN wearable device keeps track of all other devices that it comes in contact with and categorizes these contacts into low, medium and high risk groups based on the proximity and duration of the contact. The device also vibrates when two people are not maintaining social distancing. Each device can operate for 3 days with one full charge and Facedrive is currently working towards increasing this duration to 7 days. Facedrive envisions that post pandemic, these devices will be adaptable to accommodate other sensors to serve as a complete health tracking device solution.”

#140 Tom John on 08.25.20 at 10:06 am

willworkforpickles, I guess they want to be like poverty sticken South Africa despite high in gold reserves and they like 10%-11%+ savings, bond rates.

#141 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 08.25.20 at 10:13 am

“Toronto is like some sort of evil magnet. It just keeps getting fuller, bigger, more congested, unfriendlier, filthier, more generic, more boring, more sprawling, more crime infested, more homelessness, smoggier, and definitely way more expensive. ” (135 Dharma Bum)

BUT THE MAKE BELIEVES ARE UNBEATEN IN TWO WEEKS!

TORONTHOLE IS NUMBER 1 – WINNING!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pipTwjwrQYQ

#142 David Hawke on 08.25.20 at 10:25 am

OMG how silly can the Cons be electing O`Toole as leader!

That leaves only Max and his Peoples Party of Canada as a realistic opposition to Trudeau, of course that will never happen leaving Garth’s prediction of president Harris and PM Freeland spot-on!

#143 Bdwy on 08.25.20 at 10:34 am

Top could here, just unlaoded my stocks amd went short on the market.

Sp3400

The economy will reopen fully in 2021 with corporate profits restored. What top? – Garth

#144 just say no on 08.25.20 at 10:36 am

interest rates mean nothing…in this one province alone-
Did you know? So far in 2020, B.C. lottery players have claimed more than $62 million in winnings from just Lotto Max. off to buy realestate! Also other lotto game winnings too! Buy now before the lotto winners get it all……hourly wage earners will never catch up. (the truth)

#145 JB CONDO DEATH on 08.25.20 at 11:02 am

#140 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 08.25.20 at 10:13 am

“Toronto is like some sort of evil magnet. It just keeps getting fuller, bigger, more congested, unfriendlier, filthier, more generic, more boring, more sprawling, more crime infested, more homelessness, smoggier, and definitely way more expensive. ” (135 Dharma Bum)

BUT THE MAKE BELIEVES ARE UNBEATEN IN TWO WEEKS!

TORONTHOLE IS NUMBER 1 – WINNING!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pipTwjwrQYQ
…………………………………………………………………
So can I take it that you don’t like Toronto?
Not quite sure with your direction above there on which way you would swing.
So how is life in your part of the woods?

#146 Ronaldo on 08.25.20 at 11:05 am

#110 Stan Brooks Psychiatrist on 08.24.20 at 10:23 pm
#95 Ronaldo on 08.24.20 at 8:41 pm
#71 Stan Brooks Psychiatrist on 08.24.20 at 7:05 pm
#50 Lazy Law clerk on 08.24.20 at 5:47 pm
Unless you’re lucky like Garth, why would any one decide to settle down in Toronto and pay C$999,999 for a house?
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What can you buy for $999K in Toronto???
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This:

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2020/07/tiny-toronto-house-listed-1-million/
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Au contraire mon ami, that little garden shed masquerading as a house sold for $800k over asking…so the question still remains, what can you buy for a paltry $999k in Toronto?

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/this-tiny-toronto-house-just-sold-for-800k-over-asking-.
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Whoa. That tells me that people in Toronto are in dire need of a psychiatrist. Still a good supply of greater fools there it seems. Your practice must be doing very well at the moment.

#147 Ronaldo on 08.25.20 at 11:20 am

#123 willworkforpickles on 08.25.20 at 12:26 am
#95 Ronaldo
Ronaldo…thanx for sharing…what a palace.
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You’re welcome but Stan’s psychiatrist says it went for 800 grand over asking. No shortage of greater fools it seems. The virus must have affected people’s brains.

#148 Deplorable Dude on 08.25.20 at 11:24 am

DELETED

#149 the Jaguar on 08.25.20 at 11:31 am

@#119 Don Guillermo on 08.24.20 at 11:34 pm
I’m becoming as fond of Don Guillermo as I am of BillyBob. Go figure.

You might enjoy this excellent opinion piece by Victor Davis Hanson on the state of California ( fires, energy woes, etc).

Love this line:
‘Last week, I asked an elderly patient at the allergy clinic whether, in the 108-degree heat, he preferred to stay outside to breathe smoke and haze, or stay inside his uncooled apartment. He gave a novel answer: He didn’t care about the power outages since he couldn’t pay the exorbitant electricity charges anyway to turn on his air conditioner. And he added that, in California these days, you can’t tell whether mask wearers are fighting the virus, the smoke, or the police.’

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/08/california-apocalypto/#slide-1

#150 Investx on 08.25.20 at 11:37 am

“It is impossible central banks will not try to increase base lending rates as economies reopen. If they do not up the cost of money, they will be out of bullets when the next downturn comes. Without CB firepower you might call that one a ‘depression’. – Garth”

Central banks were barely able to increase rates since the GFC. In fact, the Fed reversed course in 2019 and began cutting interest rates. The markets and the economy couldn’t handle the slowly rising rates.

Come back and tell me about it in three years. – Garth

#151 Damifino on 08.25.20 at 11:40 am

Trudeau majority. – Garth
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Wouldn’t that spell the end of any chance of Freeland had at the PM’s chair? And wouldn’t Trudeau also be obliged to seek a more qualified finance minister, if he could?

#152 NSNG on 08.25.20 at 11:45 am

Due to the nature of the way liberal governments run their finances, sooner or later, everyone becomes a fiscal conservative. Just look at Ontario

Instead of trying to be the fifth clown getting into a three clown car (and they are terrible with the clown make-up. They don’t do blackface well at all), conservatives should be building up their party with the expectation that the liberals will run that car into the ditch. They are so adept at it.

The other parties won’t build an alternative to fiscal disaster. That should be the con’s job. It has been happening forever in this country. The cons should abandon social conservatism altogether except for some law and order toughness. Let the private sector and churches take care of that area. Otherwise, they should be totally focused on what they supposedly do best. Running a tight fiscal machine that builds jobs and businesses and brings those areas back to health.

Canadians are like a bunch of people dancing at the top of a cliff economically. Instead of trying to build fences at the top like the other parties to keep people ‘safe’, the Cons should go to the bottom of the cliff and build hospitals…for when people eventually show up (with a few fences stuck to them). Maybe a few morgues too

#153 Deplorable Dude on 08.25.20 at 11:47 am

#148 Deleted.

Really…..Why?

Because I couldn’t care less why you are a Trump supporter. Nor does anyone else care. Go away. – Garth

#154 Why Trump will win again - and I am not a Trump supporter on 08.25.20 at 12:43 pm

https://blog.usejournal.com/why-trump-is-likely-to-win-again-23e56ccff95b

Trump will not be defeated by educating voters, by exposing his many foibles and inadequacies. Highlighting what’s wrong with him is futile; his supporters didn’t elect him because they mistook him for a competent administrator or a decent man. They’re angry, not stupid. Trump is an agent of disruption — indeed, of revenge. Unfortunately, the coronavirus pandemic has positioned him as a tragic force-multiplier on a scale that few could have predicted, and the result is verging on catastrophic.

No one bears greater responsibility for the lack of empathy toward Old-Economy workers that led to Donald Trump’s victory than big-name Tech darlings and the New Democrats who coddled them, then openly ridiculed their own voter base: the people Hillary foolishly nicknamed “Deplorables;” that is, the millions of disappointed Obama voters who would happily have voted blue if they’d had confidence that the party would respect them, welcome them, and acknowledge their needs. But the New Economy is a gated community, shut firmly to them, whose most strenuous boosters have been the Clinton, Bush, and Obama Administrations. Old-school, working-class Democrats are unwelcome in the party they built. No one wants them tracking mud through the salon.

#155 Captain Uppa on 08.25.20 at 12:49 pm

WFH is temporary? I don’t think so.

REI selling massive BRAND NEW headquarters in favour of remote working.

Link: https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/13/business/rei-sell-campus-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

Recency bias. One example does not a trend make. People will be back to work in the future as they were in the past – Garth

#156 Stone on 08.25.20 at 1:05 pm

In theory a couple with a household income of $300,000 and a hundred grand for a down payment would qualify for a mortgage of $1.23 million at 1.59%, buying them a house worth $1.32 million.

———

Because every household at minimum makes $300k a year.

This is where my head explodes.

Average household income in Toronto: $110,000. In Leaside: $249,000. Lawrence Park: $344,000. Moore Park: $285,000. Rosedale: $423,000. Please don a helmet first. – Garth

#157 Bill on 08.25.20 at 1:11 pm

#139 TurnerNation

Your depressing me because you likely bang on..
Big techs all for it..

#158 JB CONDO DEATH on 08.25.20 at 1:40 pm

#153 Deplorable Dude on 08.25.20 at 11:47 am

#148 Deleted.

Really…..Why?

Because I couldn’t care less why you are a Trump supporter. Nor does anyone else care. Go away. – Garth
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You sure it wasn’t Smoky in disguise. A Trump supporter through and through!

#159 Captain Uppa on 08.25.20 at 1:41 pm

Recency bias. One example does not a trend make. People will be back to work in the future as they were in the past – Garth

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Could be recency bias for sure, however there are more examples and indeed a trend.

– Shopify
– Twitter
– Facebook
– Redfin
– CDN banks?

Granted those are a lot of tech companies, but they tend to be the ones with the big office spaces.

#160 Bill on 08.25.20 at 1:52 pm

DELETED

#161 NSNG on 08.25.20 at 2:18 pm

The end of the world has arrived when Garth’s posts and Turner Nation’s posts are indistinguishable :D

#162 tccontrarian on 08.25.20 at 9:03 pm

#153 Deplorable Dude on 08.25.20 at 11:47 am

#148 Deleted.

Really…..Why?

Because I couldn’t care less why you are a Trump supporter. Nor does anyone else care. Go away. – Garth
—————

I, for one, care to know why anyone supports Trump, or JT, or Bernie Sanders, or AOC etc.

How does this violate the ‘rules’ you’ve posted here previously? Unless the goal-posts have shifted…

Yeah, I know – your blog your rules, I agree. But don’t change the rules based on hating the Orange Guy. It’s beneath you, IMO

tcc

Comments about any leader that have zero to do with the blog topic and are designed to be divisive will be deleted at my pleasure. This site will not be polluted. Live with it. – Garth