The exodus

Has the bug changed everything?

Yesterday my fancy portfolio-manager buddy Doug described the ‘grand experiment.’ Without a doubt, WFH is a thing. For many people, seems like the new normal. They won’t be going back to an office again, trapped in their guest bedrooms with Zoomed colleagues and kiddies battling for bandwidth.

Now in the sixth month of our Covid captivity, work-from-home, serious doubts about school reopenings, online shopping and mandatory masks have profoundly changed the way people think, and also some of the economic realities facing society. Look at this…

  • Despite millions on the dole and the worst recession since ever, real estate sales were insane last month as the cocooning continues. The most monthly sales ever. Up 49% in Toronto, almost as much in Van, 40% in Montreal and the Fraser Valley, nearly 30% in Ottawa, Burlington and raging in the 905.
  • But wait. Condo rental listings in the biggest city surged 80% in the last three months while the number of leases signed dropped 14%. Rental rates have fallen as much as 24%. Former Airbnb units are being listed for sale or long-term lease. New projects are streaming to market. It’s a mess.
  • Writes Toronto realtor Brynn Lackie: “In the midst of what appears to be a mass exodus to the suburbs, I have clients I would have described as die-hard Torontonians who exclusively drink Jimmy’s Coffee sending me listings they have flagged in Barrie, Burlington and Aurora.”
  • And because the bug killed the GDP, interest rates have been crushed. We’ve just hit a new milestone. Wow. Five-year insured mortgages for 1.59%, or half what they were going for less than two years ago. Even home loans not insured by CMHC are cheapo at under 2%. Variable rates are now 1.5%. In just a few months, all of these rates will be below the annual cost of living increase. That’s called free money.
  • Finally, CERB will end at the beginning of October and three or four million people will become EI folks. Officially unemployed. Plus the mortgage deferrals cease for a few hundred thousand families who have not made a payment since March.

As you can surmise, these are monumental developments. Home work. Suburban rush. Condo crush. Plus a buying binge in the midst of crisis. What are we to make of it all?

Well, real estate is on a sugar high at the moment. These crazy mortgage rates have buyers buzzing around, making offers on properties they (at best) have only FaceTimed, borrowing boodles, migrating to the boonies and assuming what’s just happened, thanks to Covid, will remain. Poor souls. Recency bias hits again.

In 2021 the virus will dissipate. Therapies, maybe a vaccine, will emerge. Trump will be gone. Corporate profits will return. Unemployment will slowly fade. The recession will linger for a few quarters before robust US growth moves north. Bond yields will slowly swell. Mortgages for 1.5% will suddenly become a memory. WFH will have been proven a productivity-murdering concept. Zoom refugees will crave getting back into the office. The clubs, conventions, concerts and games will start to come back. And a whole mess of people will wonder what they were smoking when they moved to Barrie or Kamloops, borrowed their brains out to do so at the top of the market and discovered what a pain in the butt lawns and pool chemicals can be.

As this pathetic blog spelled out some days ago, urbanity ain’t dead yet. Cities flourished for a reason. The virus reaction – suburban flight, pool lust and neighbours with camo quads – is kneejerk and myopic. In time parents will still crave good schools. People will want to commute on public transit, not in gridlock. Demand hoods will be in even greater demand. The downtown towers will be repopulated and the hip urban lifestyle even more desired after months of Netflix and walking your dog on a cul-de-sac of zombies.

In crisis there’s always opportunity. Some significant ones are coming. More on that soon.

223 comments ↓

#1 Mandatory home buying on 08.23.20 at 10:56 am

Other than housing prices being too high for your average Joe / Jill to afford, the home remains the very best option for most to save. People simply don’t have the discipline to save over and above a residence. Hell, some can’t even pay their mortgage; but at least the consequences are severe if they don’t.

Buying a home should be mandatory. And using it to fund your retirement the same. What’s the alternative? People wiss away every dollar they earn and land in retirement with nothing saved.

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.20 at 11:00 am

I cant wait to see the “reverse stampede” back into the cities.
After a nasty winter with many 3ft of snowstorms, power outages and no Skip the Dishes,….. beans and KD will be the diet de jour

Our intrepid youth will realize the horror of their ways and try to sell their homes….for a loss.

#3 dogwhistle on 08.23.20 at 11:07 am

Seems I’m the only one with nothing better to do on a Sunday morning than be fuuuuurssstt…

The big question is, will Justin transform Canada into France or even ‘better’ a Eastern European country pre 1989?

What are the odds of an election at the end of 2020 or early 2021?

And what are the odds that the plebs on cerb, beer and hockey think free money is a great idea?
(history can give us the answer)

At what stage those that ‘do’ stop ‘providing’ for those who ‘don’t’ or ‘won’t’ ?

#4 Gladiator on 08.23.20 at 11:08 am

Watched it again last night. One of the few movies I have watched many times. Some interesting words around politics and the senate that resonate with draining the modern self serving ill qualified swamp.

Garth for sure thinks Trump is gone. I can’t help but think that more jobs, balanced trade, school choice, higher incomes, lower taxes, lower drug prices, secure borders all make sense.

What’s the alternative, Chrystia giving us all Slovakian pesos she doesn’t have and making our kids pay for it?

#5 Opportunities on 08.23.20 at 11:13 am

Good morning from BC
Thank you for the post Garth
Yes so much fear right now people forget silver linings.
I have been reading many newsletters and blogs all saying the same thing lots of opportunities are coming. I even said it on this blog months ago, probably to early for the doom and gloom crowd.
We cannot predict the future but most reasonable people can see opportunities but do we have the courage to act?
Who is old to remember when Canada was called a banana republic and our dollar drop to 61 cents and everyone thought it was over, but we came back and we will come back from T2.
So Garth bless us with opportunities, banks? Reits? Renewables? Bring home all those manufacturing plants? Gold ha ha maybe a restaurant, and yes I feel for all the bankruptcies but there opportunities for those who can reinvent themselves!
Bad news for me my mortgage is renewed next June hopefully I can lock in in January at the super duper low rates.
Look forward to your thoughts.

#6 the Jaguar on 08.23.20 at 11:14 am

‘ neighbours with camo quads’. You really know how to instill fear in your readers, Garth. Add power washers and leaf blowers and I’ll be on my last good nerve.

I like this part: ‘In crisis there’s always opportunity.’, but not sure I’ll be able to hang back with the brutes much longer. May need to zip off to some place where the newspapers are all in a foreign language which I’ll pretend I can’t understand and feel the ocean swirling around between my toes.
1 (888) 937-8538 That’s WestJet’s phone number if anyone wants to come along.

#7 Edmonton Dave on 08.23.20 at 11:17 am

Another great post, except Trump won’t be gone, he will be in office until 2024. You really have to get over your “orange man bad” syndrome Garth.

#8 Trexx on 08.23.20 at 11:23 am

No shiny new looney for Doug

#9 Doug t on 08.23.20 at 11:24 am

Civil unrest worldwide will continue to grow
Wealth disparity will continue to grow
China and US tensions will continue to grow
AI invasion will continue to grow
The attack on your personal privacy will continue to grow

RATM

#10 mikey on 08.23.20 at 11:28 am

Garth has been mostly correct in his predictions…so good riddance that he said “Trump will be gone”!

#11 Prairieboy43 on 08.23.20 at 11:37 am

5 out of 6 ain’t bad. However, Trump will be around. Stamp it!
PB43

#12 TRUMP2020 on 08.23.20 at 11:37 am

TRUMP ain’t going nowhere!!!

There’s no other option.

#13 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.23.20 at 11:48 am

Brilliant post!
You only forgot to mention that Trudeau will survive the non confidence vote and call an election in spring and win a majority.

The confidence vote when Parliament resumes is a charade. Trudeau knows a new Con leader just one month into the job cannot risk an election. Pure politics. – Garth

#14 Mattl on 08.23.20 at 11:48 am

“WFH will have been proven a productivity-murdering concept”

This has not been my experience at all. Sample of around 1k employees, a large number of inside sales people that traditionally would never be considered for wfh, productivity has increased. We even moved a few thousand customer service people home and were able to stay within SLA’s. Stuff that wouldn’t have been considered possible. Necessity is the mother of invention and the corp world learned alot about lean and mean the past 5 months and that cat is not going back in the bag.

You are old school Garth, if you can’t see your employee you can’t trust they are working. Lots of companies have learned that isn’t the case and now that they have solved for the tech issues that come with WFH – company phone lines, laptops, video etc they will get hooked on the low expenses that come with it. I doubt I ever do 75 days on the road again, a good thing. WFH also opens up a whole world of talent for a hiring manager. If I can look outside of the GTA that opens up huge opportunities for me and prospective employees.

I’m sure some orgs are struggling with it but I’s expect hybrid models – reduced commercial space, shared hoteling stations, super flex schedules to become the norm.

Same goes for conferences and events, reduced sized events with video used to reach folks that can’t travel.

When human nature changes, so will the nature of work. And we are not even close. – Garth

#15 SoggyShorts on 08.23.20 at 11:53 am

What do Turner investments & blog Dogs think about rebalancing on a schedule vs range?

I’ve usually been able to keep things in line using my deposits, but retirement is looming around the corner and I’m considering a 5% rule instead of annual/quarterly rebalancing.

E.G.
A PF that is 80/20 would rebalance only when it gets to 85/15 or 75/25 rather than say every Dec 31.

Meanwhile, smaller adjustments would happen monthly as withdrawals would come from the upside, and that would also be the frequency of “checks” for whether a rebalance is in order.

#16 Joe on 08.23.20 at 11:59 am

I see tons of condos selling in Toronto On Zolo in a day with bidding wars.

#17 baloney Sandwitch on 08.23.20 at 12:00 pm

I think there are still opportunities in certain sectors like banks, metal & mining, REITs, retail, industrials etc. Opportunities are disappaiting fast as confidence returns. There should be a second wave scare in late fall, winter.

#18 Sam on 08.23.20 at 12:03 pm

Garth wasn’t it you saying no one wants to live in newmarket and prices coming down? GTA will always be less likely impacted from falling prices.

Pre-Covid was another world. It will return. – Garth

#19 the Jaguar on 08.23.20 at 12:05 pm

Heavens to Murgatroyd!
Did poster # 14 Mattl just refer to Garth as ‘old school’.
That’s like calling someone ‘old fashioned’!
The Barbarians are at the gate! Break out the heavy artillery! IHCTD9, fire up that tractor! Where is Captain Ross?

#20 Mattl on 08.23.20 at 12:05 pm

When human nature changes, so will the nature of work. And we are not even close. – Garth

What is natural about living in a 400sqft box and spending 8 hours a day in a cubicle?

What is natural is large orgs cutting the expense line. I think business learned much about the work environment the past 6 months and expect downward pressure on office space, work travel and work events expenses. Just makes no sense that companies that have closed offices and thrived would not adjust to a new normal. That new normal not being elimination of any of the above but reduction

It’s not the cubicle which makes people productive, but the interaction with others. WFH may seem inevitable. It isn’t. – Garth

#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.23.20 at 12:22 pm

Computer screens are a productivity killing machine, whether in the real office or in the home office.
Day trading on office computers is rampant, more so on home/office computers.
Most supervisors/managers have no clue what their underlings are doing.
So they really cannot judge whether productivity is going up or down.
There is a law (forgot the name) in organizational behaviour, that states that the time it takes to finish a task expands to the time allotted to complete it.
Workers will move back to where the work is.
Maybe hybrid home/work. Just hope over to the office for a meeting, or for some gossip.
Brave new World.
What the virus is teaching us is: don’t take anything for granted, tomorrow is always today.

#22 forgotmyusername on 08.23.20 at 12:27 pm

People who dislike President Trump are sure he’ll lose because ….Orange Man is so, so terribly…Bad!

Here’s the thing many cannot see from within that echo-chamber: one need not like Trump (at all) to prefer his policies.

The anti-Trumpers are sure Joe Biden is a better human being.

But that’s not the only question on the ballot. What about the Democratic 2020 party platform? Will a majority of Americans vote for that?
https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/

Kamala Harris may look like a great pick, but she campaigned so poorly that she had to leave the 2020 field early.

Does America really want Harris a heartbeat away from the presidency, under 77-year-old Joe Biden? Possibly not.

The best way I heard Trump explained back in 2016 went like this:

Trump supporters take Trump seriously, but not literally. (They ignore his crazy talk as silly showmanship. And just pay attention to his policy goals.)

Trump detractors take him literally, but not seriously. (He’s crazy! He’s uncouth! It’s obvious! No one will support him!!)

Polling for Trump verses Biden right now is said to be remarkably similar to Trump verses Clinton in 2016. And how did that turn out?

Like it or not, I would not be so quick to assume Trump will be a one-term president. It is going to be a real contest.

If I had to predict, I’d say Trump wins again. Regrettably, that would mean incredible unrest as the anti-Trump side will not accept that outcome peacefully.

#23 PBrasseur on 08.23.20 at 12:30 pm

If Trump goes so will the quick recovery. Raising taxes and crippling the fossil fuel industry, among other things, will take care of that.

#24 Bill on 08.23.20 at 12:43 pm

If you missed Micheal Campbell’s show sat. Please go listen to podcast.
We are POOCHED.
Ive stated over and over T2 scares the hell out of me and Ive sandbagged the hell out of our life.
Bye bye Kanada as you knew it….if you have earned stuff you will soon have to give it to those who did not…wish i was wrong..T2 hidden adgenda. Just talk to Castro his daddy. Oh hes dead…..

#25 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.23.20 at 12:43 pm

#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.23.20 at 12:22 pm

There is a law (forgot the name) in organizational behaviour, that states that the time it takes to finish a task expands to the time allotted to complete it.

—-

This is especially true about my wife. If we have 4 hours to get ready, she will take 4 hours, if we have 30 mins to get ready, it will take her 4 hours…

#26 Dolce Vita on 08.23.20 at 12:44 pm

Or, THE 2nd wave comes and wipes a good chunk of change of us out.

I like your thinking Garth. If history is our teacher, you will be vindicated.

All past epidemics of a grave nature bear witness to that.

Though 2021, I ‘dunno Garth, it seems too quick to me. Even with a vaccine (30 attempts at it Worldwide, hopefully 1 will stick) and therapies (big thumbs up on that thinking) take TIME.

See that’s the thing Garth TIME.

Current behaviours will take time to heal, reverse and unlikely to do so even after administering a vaccine to people (or therapies rendering a COVID-19 infection benign),

TIME…that’s the BIG unknown.

#27 SOMETHINGS UP! on 08.23.20 at 12:50 pm

“In crisis there’s always opportunity. Some significant ones are coming.”

I’M LISTENING!!!!

#28 n1tro on 08.23.20 at 12:52 pm

DELETED

#29 Don Guillermo on 08.23.20 at 12:55 pm

#6 the Jaguar on 08.23.20 at 11:14 am
‘ neighbours with camo quads’. You really know how to instill fear in your readers, Garth. Add power washers and leaf blowers and I’ll be on my last good nerve.

I like this part: ‘In crisis there’s always opportunity.’, but not sure I’ll be able to hang back with the brutes much longer. May need to zip off to some place where the newspapers are all in a foreign language which I’ll pretend I can’t understand and feel the ocean swirling around between my toes.
1 (888) 937-8538 That’s WestJet’s phone number if anyone wants to come along
******************************************
We have WJ booked for Nov. 4th but wouldn’t be surprised if these flights get cancelled as time gets closer. If so, we’ll find something through Dallas, Phoenix or even (heaven forbid) LA.

#30 Dolce Vita on 08.23.20 at 12:59 pm

Meanwhile Europe not doing well Garth.

This a map of Europe with new cases from 2 days ago, the most accurate so far as countries not reporting daily (Spain, France, Denmark, Sweden) or partial reporting (Germany):

https://i.imgur.com/wq23cuj.jpg

Italia as of a few minutes ago:

1,210 new cases.

For us, DEVASTATING.

Mind you a lot of those from Italians traveling outside of its borders, coming back infected…not heeding Gov Italia calls to not go to high contagion European countries.

For example, new cases in the Region of Lazio (Roma), 40% from returning Italian tourists that went abroad.

HOPEFULLY, Ferragosto (month when all of Italia on vacation since Augustus) over in 1 maybe 2 weeks, then new cases should drop…if not, oh my.

MESSAGE CANADA:

Do not be in haste to open your borders to Int’l travel. If so, the Piper will be Paid.

#31 Bill on 08.23.20 at 1:03 pm

To Honest Realator… if their is such thing..lol
I bought my last piece and i was the realator inspector ect saved me about $150,000…and because its in BC the Prop trans tax was $40k..i got it down to $20k…what a scam.
So Those were balsy predictions. For anyone that makes predictions that far out is concerning. I certainly would not let you manage my properties..
We are careful an concervative always and have done very well in doing so. Making big speculations is not a good stratagy for long term as we have an idiot running the country making up Monetary policy on a weekly basis…you know…. taxing your prime. Well if you have a IQ larger than your shoe size you know the implications are far reacing.
No disrespect to you. Cheers

#32 Don Guillermo on 08.23.20 at 1:04 pm

#6 the Jaguar on 08.23.20 at 11:14 am

We have WJ booked for Nov. 4th but wouldn’t be surprised if these flights get cancelled as time gets closer. If so, we’ll find something through Dallas, Phoenix or even (heaven forbid) LA
****************************************

I’ll meet you at the Puerto Viejo pub for an “old fashion” pint at sunset.

https://www.tripadvisor.ca/Restaurant_Review-g150792-d1077962-Reviews-Puerto_Viejo_Restaurant-Mazatlan_Pacific_Coast.html

#33 GrumpyAuldScott on 08.23.20 at 1:08 pm

Penned from your basement safe room in Nova Scotia?
I get Barrie but what’s so bad about Kamloops?
“Predicting stuff is difficult, especially when its about the future.”

Actually in Toronto today. Man, hot. – Garth

#34 Bill on 08.23.20 at 1:11 pm

Honest RE
Please listen to Campbell…on RE
Hes bang on biggest threat to RE is Gov.
T2 is a nut job and newbe FM is a possible disaster for RE.
Thats why shes in…head bobs up and down not sideways..
T2 is a fool with a blown out credit card. Look out below…
And poeple bash Trump…lol. If yoi want to be wealthy turn off the tube..
Its a brain washing tool…if you dont know that you are a tool. Lol

#35 Toronto_CA on 08.23.20 at 1:11 pm

As I said yesterday, WFH and WFO (work from office) is a false dichotomy.
Why choose? Just come into the office when you need to, but continue the working from home that we have grown to love during the lockdowns.

I do think living in cities is a good thing for many people, but I would expect the premium commanded due to the lack of commute to work is going to erode as that commute goes from 5 days a week to 2 days a week.

Airbnb will be back, but owners without savings are forced to sell or list because right now there’s very little demand.

Sorry I was harsh on Doug yesterday!

#36 LANDLORD KING on 08.23.20 at 1:14 pm

trump is going no where,,,,if he loses he will take power

#37 Dolce Vita on 08.23.20 at 1:18 pm

For those of you mislead that somehow Sweden miraculous, thumbs its nose at COVID-19 carries on as if nothing has happened, has outperformed others, THINK AGAIN.

N. American MSM are in general liars mostly supported by the Trump literati denying COVID-19 is no biggie and looking for somebody (Sweden the example) of what they would like to do.

But these are LIES, at best SELECTIVE TRUTHS.

This from UK Doctor Campbell on what IS ACTUALLY BEING DONE IN SWEDEN, schools, etc. (and common knowledge to we Europeans):

https://youtu.be/RnkYr8KSYR8?list=PLXB8ayGD8KsPvvfkJn5Z89Z0AqK2GfTdI&t=1533

So you see, Sweden not that much different than Italia right now, more stringent in certain things than even we are.

Sweden miracle? Not really, they’re just like the rest of humans.

Go here (Europe CDC and not FOX, CNN, CBC, CTV, etc.) and listen to us Europeans and check out cases per 100K for Sweden:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

3X that of Italia, 1/3 more than the UK, 1/2 more than Germany. Better than hard hit France and Spain, much higher than their Nordic and Baltic neighbors (incl. Poland).

It is human nature to look for a light standard in times of trouble to guide us, give us hope, Sweden is not it…as much as the Trump COVID-19 no biggie bandwagon would have you believe and their brainwashed acolytes here in Canada.

Mother Nature, red tooth and claw…not suspended for the vagaries of humanity.

#38 Sail Away on 08.23.20 at 1:22 pm

#22 forgotmyusername on 08.23.20 at 12:27 pm

Here’s the thing many cannot see from within that echo-chamber: one need not like Trump (at all) to prefer his policies.

————–

Exactly. Trump has done exactly as he campaigned. People voted for that and I expect will do so again.

There is also a deep undercurrent of irritation with the constant juvenile baying of the opposition and media… and satisfaction as their predictions are repeatedly proven wrong and they fail to steamroll their agenda. Not to mention unease with the left/media general acceptance, even support, of clearly unlawful protests/riots/occupations.

I didn’t vote in the last election, but intend to vote absentee for Trump this time. For logical, not emotional, reasons.

My expectation is a near landslide for Trump although the Dems will get 97% of favourable media coverage in the leadup.

#39 the Jaguar on 08.23.20 at 1:33 pm

@#31 Don Guillermo on 08.23.20 at 1:04 pm

Guess it will depend on what people like BillyBob refer to as the ‘load’. Keep hope alive. Yo preferido la cerveza ‘Modelo Negra’.

There is always Cuba as well. I would bet the farm that the saturday WestJet flight to Varadero direct from Calgary to Varadero will go off without a hitch given the propensity of Albertans to say ‘Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead’. There will be restrictions on where on can go, but the beach is top ten. That flight also avoids Toronto connections.

#40 mike from mtl on 08.23.20 at 1:35 pm

Garth, very upbeat today.

Personally WFH full time sucks, I can see it being a part-time option and certain tasks can translate out of being the same room as the rest of corp. On top of that, zero vacation travel, events, and general public fun add to the stress. It’s not a long term solution for all white-collar workers – this is sort of working now because existing staff / teams already were successful.

Of course you can’t join a Webex to get your garbage collected or receive Amazon packages, physical work will never die.

The big unknown is how the one world government (might as well be) changes the focus in future. The precedent of sanctioned house arrest and denying freedom of movement now another powerful tool that I don’t think will be the last we endure.

#41 Sara on 08.23.20 at 1:35 pm

#37 Sail Away on 08.23.20 at 1:22 pm
I didn’t vote in the last election, but intend to vote absentee for Trump this time. For logical, not emotional, reasons.

Yeah, because any US citizen who votes for Biden is voting for “emotional reasons”. Whatever dude….

#42 Peter C on 08.23.20 at 1:36 pm

Trump will be around.

Canadians are still sleeping but Americans have had it with the crooked neoliberals and globalists.

Just watch.

#43 Sail Away on 08.23.20 at 1:36 pm

#35 LANDLORD KING on 08.23.20 at 1:14 pm

if [Trump] loses he will take power

————–

No, absolutely not. This is a ludicrous talking point.

The right does not support agitation or unlawfulness. The Constitution is sacrosanct.

#44 Bill on 08.23.20 at 1:37 pm

#35 LANDLORD KING
Turn off the tube and scocial media sest pools.
I actually know peeps that deal with him.
The bloody media represents the opposite of what he represents.
You prefer T2 with his commie plan?
My god help us no wonder scocitey has been in decine for decades.
Enjoy your body scanner at the airports now comming to you Walmart to scan for bugs. Or you prefer a tracking chip?
Trumpis aposed to these controls and thats a huge vote alone.
As a Cell tech for 30 years its easy to see how all tech can be used against you and it is…ask Edward..

#45 the Jaguar on 08.23.20 at 1:38 pm

@#37 Sail Away on 08.23.20 at 1:22 pm

I agree with you completely. The vote which will take him (Trump) over the top is actually the Hispanic vote.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch we will get our new Conservative leader here in Canada today. If Peter can nail the maritime vote we just might be able to send T2 packing…………..

#46 Bill on 08.23.20 at 1:39 pm

Sorry for all the typos …phone is smal hot tub is big…eyes are waning..

#47 Habitt on 08.23.20 at 1:48 pm

The polls are close enough to cast doubt. Don’t underestimate Trump. In this politically correct world beware the silent majority. Ask Hillary

#48 Damifino on 08.23.20 at 1:49 pm

#13 Ponzius Pilatus

You only forgot to mention that Trudeau will survive the non confidence vote and call an election in spring and win a majority.
———————————–

Partly right. T2 will survive the throne speech vote on Sep 23 and there will be an election in the spring.

But thanks to the fallout from the end of CERB (with EI as a much less desirable substitute), the end of mortgage deferrals and other Liberal scandals likely to emerge in the meantime, they will achieve only another minority.

That will crumble within a year. Then, having run out of usable Trudeaus, the Libs will turn leadership over to heir apparent Freeland.

The outcome of today’s Conservative leadership bid will determine what kind of fight she’ll have on her hands in the spring election of 2022.

#49 Bill on 08.23.20 at 1:52 pm

Garth why is T2 still in power???!!!!! Its an outrage. Bomb SNC Huawei scandal after scandal…i lost count.
I have called his office multiple emails and hes invisible…..no one answers for a reason….hiding in his massive cabin getting a $10mil reno on us….Castro 2.0
https://omny.fm/shows/money-talks-with-michael-campbell/the-government-prorogues-parliament-in-hopes-to-ho

#50 Conspiratard on 08.23.20 at 1:52 pm

So….Garth conveniently shows up in Toronto the same day as the Conservative leader selection.

While Russia has been interfering with Canada Post and the ballot count.

Coincidence? I think not.

I think not.

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE NEW CONSERVATIVE LEADER, MR. GARTH TURNER!

#51 Mattl on 08.23.20 at 1:53 pm

It’s not the cubicle which makes people productive, but the interaction with others. WFH may seem inevitable. It isn’t. – Garth

Well it is already here. Double digit growth in remote jobs the past decade. I’m not suggesting that offices or cities are going away, rather Covid is going to supercharge what was already happening.

Executives and certain levels of management will likely always need to work shared space. Teams will need to get real face time. Problem solving, crisis mgm’t, idea generation these things make sense face to face. I think that is where your perspective comes from.

Mine comes from office environments with multiple floors of people handling routine tasks that can be delivered from anywhere. Productivity is easily measured. These aren’t team environments, the only reason we stack these people in office is lack of trust. We have to see them to believe they are working. Thanks to tech we have perfect visibility into what they are doing at any time.

Offices are going anywhere but they will get smaller.

#52 Stone on 08.23.20 at 1:53 pm

It’s not the cubicle which makes people productive, but the interaction with others. WFH may seem inevitable. It isn’t. – Garth

———

Maybe TI is different (I don’t think it is though). People with their head down, wireless earbuds always on, a blank stare looking at a blank screen and not typing anything. The smell of fear permeating the whole floor that someone will call them out. When you do approach, these office workers pheromones go off with the chemical message “don’t notice me”, “don’t approach”, “nobody here” or better yet, they pick up the phone but it never rang. The best is when someone monopolizes a meeting room meant for a dozen only to find out afterwards they took the room just so they wouldn’t have to interact with anyone for half the day and sometimes, the whole day. Try to book a meeting with someone – their calendars are constantly full and when you actually see them at the time they blocked off, they’re just sitting at their desk doing nothing.

Come on Garth, the cube farms are the most mentally dysfunctional invention ever. I suspect those who came up with the concept were actually psychopaths. Actually, I don’t suspect. I’m 99.9% certain.

#53 Joseph R. on 08.23.20 at 1:56 pm

If I had to predict#22 forgotmyusername on 08.23.20 at 12:27 pm
I’d say Trump wins again. Regrettably, that would mean incredible unrest as the anti-Trump side will not accept that outcome peacefully
—————————

I would said it the Trumpers that won’t accept the results of the elections if Biden wins. The House is predicted to be a lost for Republican and the Senate is at play. They already believe all votes that are not Republican are a result of cheating.

They are pretty emotional about it. They are afraid of Biden and his running mate. That’s what reading comment sections leads me to conclude. Take it for what it’s worth.

#54 Dolce Vita on 08.23.20 at 2:03 pm

#37 Sail Away

I ‘dunno Sail Away on the Trump landslide, let alone a victory.

You vote your conscience and so you should.

But to me, HUMAN NATURE:

People talk with their hands on their hearts, BUT vote with their hands on their pocketbooks. Many an American pocketbook during the pandemic made lighter (or non-existent by job loss).

The other human nature maxim is for citizens to blame Government for their malaise.

Arguably, Trump has not done a good job with COVID-19, no, not by any stretch of the imagination (4.3% of the World’s population, 24.4% of the World’s COVID-19 cases, 21.9% of Worldwide COVID-19 deaths…not exactly a resounding endorsement let alone a success story).

If HUMAN NATURE can be relied upon, it will cost Trump his 2nd term as President…hand on pocketbook, blame for the malaise.

Why I believe the Dem strategy to go after Trump on his COVID-19 record a smart one.

There will be no magic vaccine before Nov. 2 unless, the Russian one actually works…imagine Trump prescribing a Russian vaccine that works to America before Nov. 2?

Snowballs hope in Hades.

#55 Bill on 08.23.20 at 2:04 pm

#36 Dolce Vita.
I know a good surgeon in the US says. “Bug no big deal just extremely poorly miss managage and understood…media manipulation fear mongering and controls costing mega BILLIONS $s”
Yup $2000 fines in BC for not social distancing…really!?
God help us we are now all children.
Stop listening to people in power…

#56 willworkforpickles on 08.23.20 at 2:13 pm

Avoid listening to what realtors… any realtor for that matter is saying now. Most don’t dig beneath the surface of what’s good for you (never did) but what’s good for them (worse now) and will spin any dark negative in a positive light.
Unemployment will remain very high throughout 2021 becoming one of C-19’s more prominent consequential fall-outs.
No matter who wins in November, social unrest that requires the smallest spark to ignite will prevail.
The fall-out from 2020’s government largesse hasn’t taken any effect yet.
Defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies haven’t yet started, they will play out in due time and lifecycle of their own.
The pandemic threatens to multiply the pain of 2020 in 21 with the potential rising for even greater fall-out to come.
A return to normalcy will not come about in 2021.

#57 Dirty Dan on 08.23.20 at 2:15 pm

DELETED

#58 Sara on 08.23.20 at 2:20 pm

#52 Joseph R. on 08.23.20 at 1:56 pm ” the Trumpers … won’t accept the results of the elections if Biden wins.
They are pretty emotional about it.”

But SailAway says the Trump voters (like him) are the logical ones and the Biden voters are the emotional ones.

#59 Don Guillermo on 08.23.20 at 2:21 pm

#48 Bill on 08.23.20 at 1:52 pm
Garth why is T2 still in power???!!!!! Its an outrage. Bomb SNC Huawei scandal after scandal…i lost count.
I have called his office multiple emails and hes invisible…..no one answers for a reason….hiding in his massive cabin getting a $10mil reno on us….Castro 2.0

***************************************
I believe this CBC interview with Scheer sums up why T2 survives. It was actually quite smart of Butts to buy off the MSM. It’s similar to when Castro finally figured out he needed to create the Granma after a visit to the Soviet Union and inspired by Pravda.

https://www.facebook.com/AndrewScheerMP/videos/234918121090630/

#60 the Jaguar on 08.23.20 at 2:30 pm

@#49 Conspiratard on 08.23.20 at 1:52 pm

It is an odd coincidence that Garth is in Toronto today. Now I am thinking about Dorothy’s comment ‘The Journey Continues…..”.
Maybe not party leader as he didn’t run, but maybe there to accept a job being offered from Peter MacKay the new leader of the party.
Oh god, I just love conspiracy theories. I had a feeling Garth was getting a little bored in sleepy Lunenburg…..

Note also that the Instagram photos on this blog have mysteriously disappeared. The blog must must be kept apart from ‘party matters’, and so detached like space module……..

#61 Learn2investkid.com on 08.23.20 at 2:31 pm

I think people are going overboard with people leaving cities to love to the burbs. Some people are moving to places like the Fraser Valley but it is so over hyped. Realtors are the worst. For them three people moving is a major trend. Whatever helps sales.

I was talking to guy with a moving truck and the actual trend he is seeing is people being evicted or moving because they haven’t paid rent in the past 3+ months. The other issue is many landlords are refusing to rent out their places until COVID-19 is resolved. They don’t want to deal with renters who can’t pay. It will be interesting to see what happens to these people in Sept/Oct. The working poor are really taking it on the chin.

Donate to your local food bank or an elementary school in your city that runs a breakfast or lunch program.

#62 Dolce Vita on 08.23.20 at 2:33 pm

#54 Bill

Then who will you listen to Bill?

There are no hoaxes here, if anything your surgeon buddy should know that reported cases are 1/10th of actual cases. 85% have mild to very mild symptoms, 15% actually get sick to very sick and overall, 3.5% of all reported cases, well, they die.

QUID PRO QUO, please Comment with your Surgeon friends numbers here so as to be credible and recall this statistically:

you need a sample of minimum 35

So, get your Surgeon buddy to Comment + 34 of his/her like minded buddies on the “hoax” otherwise if not, then:

what you and buddy say is statistically IRRELEVANT.

#63 Habitt on 08.23.20 at 2:39 pm

#44 Jaguar To win In the Maritimes Peter would need to outspend JT.

#64 Dolce Vita on 08.23.20 at 2:44 pm

#54 Bill

PS:

As for BC fines, come to Italia, they are only €308.

A bargain to act irresponsibly towards others and be so self-entitled that you will collapse into your own personal Black Hole Event Horizon of HEDONISM.

Though, be grateful you live in BC and not AB:

“Kentucky man faces $750K fine for breaking quarantine rules in Alberta Rockies”

https://globalnews.ca/news/7289586/kentucky-man-750000-fine-canadian-quarantine-rules/

Though I do think here they’ve gotten a bit carried away I would say, so some sympathy for your fines gripe…indeed.

#65 Bill on 08.23.20 at 2:47 pm

DELETED

#66 Leftover on 08.23.20 at 2:49 pm

Agreed that there could be a boomerang back to the city once things settle down in a year, but by then interest rates could be spiking so unless people are willing to sell their house in the suburbs and let the buyer assume the 2020 mortgage, things could get complicated.

As for Trump, well, while I’d like to see the back of that guy I’ve spend too much time with American deplorables to think it’s a slam dunk. There are more of them than the New York Times is willing to admit.

Finally, on the virus, read this (Lionel Shriver makes Margaret Atwood look like a sissy):

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/never-has-a-virus-been-so-oversold

#67 Bill on 08.23.20 at 2:54 pm

Oh raise some cash on your holdings in the market. Nothing wrong taking profit…. We had a huge run now is the time to be prudent….We could have a retrenchment. If you dont believable me I can drop a piece in Feb saying RAISE CASH we are heading for max trouble.
I love this country we have no leadership…
Garth what the hell we going to do?
You are a rock…..You saved my family cause I wasn’t venting on them just here….I’m a big pic person and sometimes an idiot but been V successful. I have no money problems just short of time.

#68 Job#1 on 08.23.20 at 3:00 pm

#36 Dolce Vita

What is it with you and Sweden? Your gleeful descriptions of how “badly” they’re doing is disconcerting. 181 cases and zero deaths yesterday. It’e over, very few left to infect. Can’t say the same for many countries that implemented lockdown.

#69 Bill on 08.23.20 at 3:07 pm

#61 Dolce Vita
———————-
Never said it was hoax. Its a real bug..Live with it…dont fear-monger me.
I’ve got multiple sources. Not the tube. FBook is one of the most infested cesspools for miss info.
Buddy in Victoria BC is an Emerg RN. The place is dead and hes getting extra pay for showing up and doing nothing.
1 case on Van island ZERO on the Sun Shine coast.
But fake body counts daily…
Everyone being pushed around like its the Ebola Africa…If that shows Ill take cover….
The economy crushed debt FLYING…
But stay home stay safe…..

#70 DON on 08.23.20 at 3:21 pm

@Dolce

Trump already blamed the lack of viable vaccine on the deep state. He is putting all his counter measures into play. He will also use the virus flare upd in other countries to counter some of the heat he is facing for not reacting sooner.

The man is seemingly unique to run against, as he has no limits to his duck and cover tactics. He casts doubts and has the platform to do so. Next comes a comment about the stalement in Congress over the mainstreet stimulus package.

Just looking at it from a non partisan viewpoint. I do not admire Trump at all, but if you play his game expect to be hadicapped to some degree by your own morals.

Expect to hear ‘deep state’ a lot more in Trump’s rhetoric along with all the other stuff. Biden’s son in the Ukraine…maybe even Clinton/Epstein etc. He will sling mud and see what sticks.

#71 Linda on 08.23.20 at 3:25 pm

Was out & about today. Maybe it was just one of those days, but noticed there were far fewer people than one might expect given it is still summer, the weekend & was mid-day. Walmart had shoppers, but plenty of open parking near the front doors. Most people seemed to be purchasing groceries. The aisles for other goods were virtually empty of shoppers. The nearby Lowe’s had a ‘clearance’ sale; 90% off all items marked with a yellow sticker. Store virtually empty & I was asked by 3 separate sales associates if I needed help with anything . This is not normal to say the least. Even though the signs said clearance, I got the impression that the store was actually closing. Hit two different dollar stores, both had less than a dozen shoppers. Normally at this time of year the shops would be packed with back to school/autumn projects/summer clearance sales shoppers. Is this the ‘new normal’ or am I just imagining things?

#72 Northshore guy on 08.23.20 at 3:31 pm

3 of my colleagues bought detached homes as far away as Chilliwack. Last week we were told offices are being redesigned to accommodate social distancing with 7 feet high walled private cubicles. They are also looking to double the floor space in another tower next year. Initially only half of the employees will return to work next year and other half when new office is ready.
Those 3 colleagues are now thinking to sell!!
That being said, prices have gone through the roof in north Vancouver for condos and townhouses. Detached are selling like there is no tomorrow.
West Vancouver just had few big ticket purchases north of 10 million.
It doesn’t make sense, people are buying everywhere, the exodus has simply made everything expensive.

#73 BlawgDawg on 08.23.20 at 3:38 pm

#1 Mandatory home buying on 08.23.20 at 10:56 am

Other than housing prices being too high for your average Joe / Jill to afford, the home remains the very best option for most to save.

——————————————————————

Watch your back, Joe. Jack ain’t gonna be too happy!

#74 P.Ooched on 08.23.20 at 3:52 pm

#19 the Jaguar on 08.23.20 at 12:05 pm

“old school”

Anything that is from an earlier era and looked upon with high regard or respect. Can be used to refer to music, clothing, language, or anything really.

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=old+school

#75 IHCTD9 on 08.23.20 at 3:59 pm

I think it’d be tough, after living in a real house with a real yard – to move back into a 600sf downtown condo. That meaning there would have to be something even worse afoot to make them want to do it.

Traffic is bad yes, public transport is jam-packed with germy strangers, but the work commute is seemingly the only thing that could possibly drive a suburban sfd owner back downtown.

So the question then – is the commute really that bad?

#76 NSNG on 08.23.20 at 4:09 pm

Voters tend to vote for what they are familiar with even if they are scandal-ridden. Even up in Canada, we had voters keep parties in power for an extra term when they should have reasonably been trashed in the previous term. The recent liberal parties in both BC and Ontario both come to mind in that regard. Voters hate change and unpredictability and will suffer in order to avoid it

For that reason, I think the US election is leaning towards incumbency for Trump.

For all his warts, he is the devil voters know

He’ll probably be stuck with gridlock too. They will give him power but they won’t give it to him absolutely.

Four more years of the same. The only change is that Nancy might be turfed as house leader by her own party

#77 Steven Nicolle on 08.23.20 at 4:11 pm

I think what will happen is this and I am not being pessimistic. Just a realist. We will still be wearing masks through 2021. It will not be till late 2021 we get a vaccine that will prove effective. Trudeau put that 37 billion dollar EI etc. Plan out there that with NDP vote will pass. Then as a kicker in the throne speech he is going to announce Liberal all green or nothing plan with child care, LTC homes plan to upgrade as some of the key features. Then the NDP will vote for it and that will pass. He will throw a biscuit to oil and gas sector too. He will continue governing because not many who are struggling will care about the deficit. Then in 2022 UBI will be introduced because he knows how the CERB has already brought spending to pre pandemic levels. When the UBI is brought in businesses will have to pay and charge more but that’s okay cause inflation is around that time. People making more no one left behind and that’s his plan, I think but obviously like everyone else has it’s just a thought on what will play out.

#78 Don Guillermo on 08.23.20 at 4:19 pm

#38 the Jaguar on 08.23.20 at 1:33 pm
@#31 Don Guillermo on 08.23.20 at 1:04 pm

Guess it will depend on what people like BillyBob refer to as the ‘load’. Keep hope alive. Yo preferido la cerveza ‘Modelo Negra’.

There is always Cuba as well. I would bet the farm that the saturday WestJet flight to Varadero direct from Calgary to Varadero will go off without a hitch given the propensity of Albertans to say ‘Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead’. There will be restrictions on where on can go, but the beach is top ten. That flight also avoids Toronto connections
******************************************

Direct flights and avoiding Pearson is best if possible. Travelling is a necessity. Cuba is fun and interesting. Puerto Viejo serves up beers in frosty mugs – Modelo Negras tambien.

“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow mindedness, and many people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime.” Mark Twain

#79 SG on 08.23.20 at 4:20 pm

Just like the “Roaring 20’s” after the Spanish Flu we can expect the roaring 2020’s

#80 Barb on 08.23.20 at 4:24 pm

#68 Bill

“…Buddy in Victoria BC is an Emerg RN. The place is dead and hes getting extra pay for showing up and doing nothing.”

———————————–

Same here in Vernon BC

#81 Sail Away on 08.23.20 at 4:25 pm

#53 Dolce Vita on 08.23.20 at 2:03 pm
#37 Sail Away

Arguably, Trump has not done a good job with COVID-19, no, not by any stretch of the imagination (4.3% of the World’s population, 24.4% of the World’s COVID-19 cases, 21.9% of Worldwide COVID-19 deaths…not exactly a resounding endorsement let alone a success story).

——————

Most people who are alive don’t care in the slightest.

It’s a non-issue.

What a callous statement, when hundreds of thousands have died. Time you took a break from this blog. Bye. – Garth

#82 Opportunities 2 on 08.23.20 at 4:31 pm

Well does anyone ever think positive?
Everyone think outside the box or should I say nose swab

announced yesterday a spit test for COVID.
I have said from the beginning of this virus a vaccine is not the only answer, fast tests that people can do in their own home is the answer!

Think about it … if everyone did a daily 100 percent reliable spit test and self quarantined when positive, guess what the virus will be gone in two weeks four weeks max.

Anyway a game changer anyone else thinking positive today and thinks wow like me?

Happy Sunday
If you remember one thing today there is always one thing positive in your life today focus on that.
Cheers

#83 WDL on 08.23.20 at 4:32 pm

“Trump will be gone”……Yeah right! I’ll bet you an ounce of silver on that….OOOPS Garth has no silver. :) Garth, Trump will be gone in 2024.

#84 fishman on 08.23.20 at 4:39 pm

I wouldn’t be so worried about where you work. Might want to concentrate on having work. My circle is mostly entrenepeurs. We’re tightening the circle. Hardening positions. Even if back to profit making their cutting. Repair & maintain. No big capital expenditures. Working the books hard. Paper jam in tax land. My accountant says its a good time to be aggressive. I repeat, aggressive, not offside.

#85 Bill on 08.23.20 at 4:42 pm

#79 Barb
————–
DELETED

Now that over 800,000 people have died of Covid, 180,000 of them just to the south of us, we will no longer be calling the virus a ‘hoax’, a ‘scam’ or anything else that mocks, belittles and renders meaningless these victims’ lives nor the hole their passing leaves behind for millions of family members. Got it? – Garth

#86 Trumpoholics - just sad..... on 08.23.20 at 4:56 pm

https://twitter.com/JimCarrey/status/1297624675120365568?s=19

#87 Yuus bin Haad on 08.23.20 at 5:00 pm

Trump will be gone … or not – I don’t really have a say in that. I do, however, have a say in whether Trudeau stays … or goes.

#88 Bill on 08.23.20 at 5:01 pm

#80 Sail Away
————————–
Its a real deal……You spit on the victims of this bug.
I call it bogus bug only BECAUSE the economic shutdown has long term ramifications FOREVER….and there is no thought from our crazy gov on logical management of this issue. Its like a canon rolling around on your deck…..No solution’s just grey. Its being used as leverage….T2
BTW I spent my life on sailboats. Lived in the Caribbean when I was a kid on 110 footer….
Sailed our 42 ft from BC to the sea of Cortez then to Hawaii the back to BC. 2 years.
Garths right your a bit annoying….

#89 Job#1 on 08.23.20 at 5:16 pm

#81 Opportunities 2

If the tests work, that is good news. People can discover if they’re positive BEFORE they start to shed the virus, and quarantine as required. The current testing regimen is of no help in this regard, due to the days/weeks needed to obtain the result.
One can hope that the manufacturer(s) don’t face undue regulatory approval headwinds.
You nailed it. This could be a game changer.

#90 Job#1 on 08.23.20 at 5:18 pm

Oops. Opportunities 2 now occupies comment #82.

#91 IHCTD9 on 08.23.20 at 5:34 pm

#82 Opportunities 2 on 08.23.20 at 4:31 pm

Happy Sunday
If you remember one thing today there is always one thing positive in your life today focus on that.
Cheers
——

Sure they do, but this is the Internet homie. It’s real, and it’s where the things you not dare say to folks in real life get deposited!

Positive for the day: after walking 50km+ per week for the last couple months, I finally succeeded in dropping 2 lbs last week. ‘Doh!

#92 Bill on 08.23.20 at 5:38 pm

#84 Bill on 08.23.20 at 4:42 pm
#79 Barb
————–
DELETED

Now that over 800,000 people have died of Covid, 180,000 of them just to the south of us, we will no longer be calling the virus a ‘hoax’, a ‘scam’ or anything else that mocks, belittles and renders meaningless these victims’ lives nor the hole their passing leaves behind for millions of family members. Got it? – Garth
——————————————————————-
Garth
Said it was an economic HOAX poorly managed. Bug is real.
Wash your hands don’t live in fear….
Why am I paying for my commercial tenants rent? I didn’t save for a rainy day to have the gov tell me that I now have to pay for others that didn’t. I didn’t make the bug….
Seriously I get it Garth..
are you up on CECRA? I’m sure u are.
I’m suppose to dig into my pocket because people over borrow and cant make obligations in a hickup…My properties are going to subsidies them?….Not happening. $3000 rent is now $730 for tenant. Gov = taxpayer….pays $1460. I eat the rest? My mortgage taxes ect no break. 25% loss doesn’t run a building.

Can you provide the 800k number that PROVE it 100% covid? Other preconditions?
Quebec has 20 fold deaths because old folks homes cause their filthy. That’s was avoidable
There’s huge subsidies in the US Hospitals if it is labeled covid.
Just like Obama Care. Dig deep and there it is…. major kick backs to line Hospitals pockets.
Who do you believe?
How many are dieing from civil unrest and the long term ramifications of a lock down?
T2 lies daily to save his Butt…Thats our leader…

#93 Looking up on 08.23.20 at 5:41 pm

#85 Bill on 08.23.20 at 4:42 pm
#79 Barb
————–
DELETED

Now that over 800,000 people have died of Covid, 180,000 of them just to the south of us, we will no longer be calling the virus a ‘hoax’, a ‘scam’ or anything else that mocks, belittles and renders meaningless these victims’ lives nor the hole their passing leaves behind for millions of family members. Got it? – Garth

—————

Well said Garth. One of my neighbours passed away from Covid. Perhaps Bill can go console his widow and 16 year old daughter by telling them that Covid is just a hoax.

#94 Mississauga Mel on 08.23.20 at 5:48 pm

#75 IHCTD9 on 08.23.20 at 3:59 pm

#75 IHCTD9 on 08.23.20 at 3:59 pm
I think it’d be tough, after living in a real house with a real yard – to move back into a 600sf downtown condo. That meaning there would have to be something even worse afoot to make them want to do it.

Traffic is bad yes, public transport is jam-packed with germy strangers, but the work commute is seemingly the only thing that could possibly drive a suburban sfd owner back downtown.

So the question then – is the commute really that bad?
————————————————————–

The commute is bad if you drive downtown Toronto but you can live off the Go line going west to Hamilton and enjoy the downtown commute on the spacious Go train. 20 minutes to Union Station from Port Credit for example with only a couple of stops. SFD owners are not selling out in the burbs to move to a 600 sq ft condo. The millenials and Gen Xers are the ones who want these condos not SFDs, SFDs are selling their homes and moving to the hinterland and pocketing $1 million plus capital gains free.

#95 Walt Whitman on 08.23.20 at 5:56 pm

#77 Steven Nicolle on 08.23.20 at 4:11 pm
I think what will happen is this and I am not being pessimistic. Just a realist. We will still be wearing masks through 2021. It will not be till late 2021 we get a vaccine that will prove effective..
—————————————————————

You can bet that Mr.Trump will be claiming all kinds of virus cure break throughs like he did today at 5.30 pm as election day looms…

#96 dutch4505 on 08.23.20 at 5:56 pm

Agreed with every word except for four words. “Trump will be gone” If you had the opportunity to drive around USA instead of watching CNN you would agree.

#97 Leftover on 08.23.20 at 6:07 pm

#84 fishman

Yes, my accountant said the same thing. CRA in a state of high befuddlement, unlikely to act on anything but the simplest issues if at all. In fact, can’t even get a return call.

#98 DON on 08.23.20 at 6:11 pm

@ Steven Nicolle

Plausible for sure.

#99 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 08.23.20 at 6:13 pm

Yeah, this “hoax” crapola is the anti-intellectual’s argument that justifies their contempt for government workers, CERB collectors, anxious parents, and anyone else who fails to meet their ideological purity standards.

Much like the GOP, this blog is being over-run by Trump/Qanon loons.

#100 Drinking on 08.23.20 at 6:14 pm

Obviously, all these buyers believe that prices will rise in the future, easily rentable, but, if interest rises in the next few years as you predicted I just do not see a great outcome when all these mortgages come up for renewal.

One almost needs a loan nowadays just to buy groceries; in my region it is absurd, cauliflower is cheap but try buying tomatoes or any fresh produce, it is insane, that is if it is not recalled due to salmonella!!!
This world is nuts!

#101 akashic record on 08.23.20 at 6:30 pm

#81

Too hot in TO.

#102 Nonplused on 08.23.20 at 6:33 pm

I think everybody is getting ahead of themselves. For example my son is supposed to go back to school in a couple of weeks. Here are some of the measures:

– assigned doors
– mandatory face masks
– one way hallways
– no lockers
– limited movement
– hand sanitizer
– assigned seating on bus
– no sports
– no wind instruments
– no sharing equipment
– no water fountains
– no choir or band trips
– parents must be available to pick up their student if they sneeze

It sounds dreadful. Who would want to send their kids to someplace like that? I mean an hour every couple of weeks to go to Costco I can see but subjecting kids to that? My son has opted for the online option.

Most everyone I know that works downtown has by now been told to clear out all their things. When people do return to the office in December to January there will no longer be assigned workspaces and the desks are going to be sanitized nightly. Also there will be limits on how many people can be in the office at a time. What sort of craziness is that?

I think this thing is going to go on for a while. Hope reigns eternal for a quick return to “normal”, but I don’t think so. We will probably get that dreaded second wave, probably from the schools, so by say January everything will be closed down again. And this time the hospitals might very well be full. But even if that doesn’t happen it’s going to take years to sort out the financial mess that has occured.

And then we have Nov. 3rd. No matter who wins (it will probably be Trump) the results will be contested and riots and looting will ensue. There will be covid and protests at the polling stations and the media has already set it up so no one will believe the results of mail in ballots, which might take weeks to count.

What a mess. Eventually everything will get sorted out but I’m planning to be hunkered down until this time next year.

#103 AM in MN on 08.23.20 at 6:38 pm

Trump wins by a large enough margin to quell the moaners.

Takes MN and R’s flip the MN Senate seat as well… get over it.

The cities are the Dem power base and they are war zones right now. Hard to organize door to door with the urban machines. For instance, they need +450,000 in Philly to take PA. Last time it was +400,000 and Hillary lost. It will be worse this time. Same for Detroit (MI) and Milwaukee (WI), the machines can’t drive the numbers, party because of the chaos and partly because the blacks don’t love Biden (or Harris!).

Suburbs are booming right now, check out the price of lumber in the last 3 months! Why would they vote to destroy themselves? Lots of guilt ridden white liberals who don’t care about money because they have lot’s of it, but not enough to overcome those who fear the future under socialism an cultural marxism.

All markets are unique, and the cities will come back. Van never crashed because it’s one of the few cities in the world where more people who live in downtown condos commute out to the suburbs for work than who live there for work. Ocean and parks have a lot to do with it.

Conventions and trade shows will come back. In complicated businesses, people need to meet face to face to get an understanding of each other. It is much more efficient.

I’ve WFH since ’03, but self employed with lot’s of travel…at least back in the day. It takes motivation, similar to that required to start your own business. Perhaps that becomes the real takeaway?

#104 Bill on 08.23.20 at 6:46 pm

#93 Looking up
———————–
The abuses on the financial system IS THE HOAX.
Didn’t need to be…Not talking about deaths or a fake bug.
My neighbors got 2 moths to live…cancer…we are sad and on high alert. Wait a few years you might understand the big pic.
Go for it run and hide…T2 sells fear. I’ve got 70 tenants and 700 people in my phone. Don’t know anyone with CV. Oh and my neighbor is WCB.
Wait till the hangover rolls out…….Its not the black plague. I deal with this according. I don’t push it like the tube…My god

#105 YouKnowWho on 08.23.20 at 6:46 pm

The confidence vote when Parliament resumes is a charade. Trudeau knows a new Con leader just one month into the job cannot risk an election. Pure politics. – Garth

Garth, it’s 2020, not a year for predictions. Everything is on the cards still. Expect an exciting finish. We only have 2 periods behind us. Plenty of hockey still left.

Ever watch motor racing? 24hrs of Le Mans. 2016. 3 minutes to go. See what happened on YouTube, because it must be seen not told about. In a 24 hour race. I fully expect that in 2020. Sure, don’t bet on it, but expect it.

Today I saw a MotoGP rider jump off his motorcycle at 215km/hr because his front brake failed at over 300km/hr. You know, in case you think you’ve seen everything. I’ve been watching motor racing for a long long time, and that’s a first for me. Again, don’t think we’ve seen it all and know it all.

Where am I going with this? There are so many predictions made right now, it’s just too damn many. It’s like throwing many against the wall to see what will stick. Some will be right, and I’m sure we’ll talk about how right they were. Some will not be, and we’ll choose to not talk about those.

It’s easy to predict city return for you. Not like huge masses are really leaving, just the scared soft ones. Let them. Opens up lanes on Gardiner and seats on subway. Plus, not like you’re in the city anymore. Sure you left for the fresh air and seafood, but still, you’re not here. To be honest it seems like you have not been a city guy for quite some time Garth. Niagara on the Lake is not a city. And you know what…you’re doing what nature intended…dispersing. But you still have a condo in Toronto, right? I’m betting you do. In a small unit count building of course, not one of these 800-1000 monstrosities. Or did Scotiabank convert office space to living space already?

#106 JacqueShellacque on 08.23.20 at 6:46 pm

Reports of The Orange One’s electoral demise are premature, just like they were last time. The last week will tell the tale. When I saw Obama making a speech in Michigan less then 48 hours before polls opened there in 2016, it signalled they knew they were in deep kaka. As far as I know it’s entirely unprecedented for a sitting president not eligible for re-election to campaign on behalf of his party’s nominee. Garth has himself written about another episode – the infamous ‘does this look like the face of a PM’ Conservative ads in ’93. Until then polls and predictions for the election are worthless. For our part, it’s not a surprise to me that T2 would take aim at a fall election, I suspected that’s what he’d want all along. Sadly, I believe he’ll get it and his majority too, possibly even before Americans vote in November.

#107 Nonplused on 08.23.20 at 6:48 pm

“When human nature changes, so will the nature of work. And we are not even close. – Garth”

It seems to me the nature of work has changed dramatically in the last 150 years. Heck when I started my first job only the managers had computers, everyone else had to book computer time in the “lab”. Now most of the kids bring their own device to school.

Of course some jobs cannot be done from home. Construction for example. Or appliance repair. Or lawn maintenance. Or driving for Uber. But accounting?

#108 Long-Time Lurker on 08.23.20 at 6:54 pm

DELETED

#109 Trojan House on 08.23.20 at 6:58 pm

DELETED

#110 YouKnowWho on 08.23.20 at 6:59 pm

DELETED

#111 Steven Nicolle on 08.23.20 at 7:02 pm

# 77 oh for sure Trump will be right there with anything for a vaccine before Nov 3rd. Maybe go back to the bleach. Try it what have you got to lose?

# 98 Yes he could be planning an end run with Freeland. Morneau did not want anything to do with it. Freeland likes the idea 100%. The Liberals should just change their name to Social Democrats like many in Europe of the same ilk are called. Isn’t Merkel’s party called that? Not sure.

#112 the Jaguar on 08.23.20 at 7:08 pm

Not sure what the ‘delays’ are in the Conservative Leadership announcements, but it doesn’t inspire confidence or stir voter interest when planned announcements don’t come off as previously advised on time. If you want young people to take an interest be organized and look highly efficient, especially when one of the networks has been advertising a Star Trek movie all week to begin in about one hour. Just saying…
Rosemary Barton of the CBC is the best journalist we have in Canada, but she looks tortured. ( and who did her makeup? The blush is too dark on her cheeks). Oh well….

#113 Nonplused on 08.23.20 at 7:19 pm

#36 LANDLORD KING on 08.23.20 at 1:14 pm
trump is going no where,,,,if he loses he will take power

———————

How is he going to do that? Even if Trump barricades himself in the oval office if Joe wins he is the president come Jan. 20. I think we can chalk this up to TDS along with many of the other Trump conspiracy theories.

Here is a partial list of ways to diagnose TDS:

– the “fine people” hoax
– Russian collusion / Russian asset
– the “kids in cages” hoax
– the “forced to drink from the toilet” hoax
– “He won’t leave” syndrome
– the tax return hoax
– the USPS hoax
– “He’s Hitler” syndrome
– the impeachment hoax
– the “popular vote” hoax

The list goes on but these are some of the main symptoms. If you find yourself believing in 2 or more of the above you need to immediately turn off CNN and seek professional help. There is a propaganda war going on in the US ever since Trump was elected the likes of which we have not seen since Nazi Germany (it would make Goebbels blush), and it ain’t Trump doing it, however distasteful and unlikable of a person he may be. But the one thing we can know for certain is that if the non-candidate Biden wins, then truly the television has subjected humanity to its will and the war is over.

Enough Trump. People can legitimately hold disparate views to yours and this does not mean they are deranged or brainwashed. You are better than this. – Garth

#114 Looking up on 08.23.20 at 7:20 pm

#103 Bill on 08.23.20 at 6:46 pm
#93 Looking up
———————–
The abuses on the financial system IS THE HOAX.
Didn’t need to be…Not talking about deaths or a fake bug.
My neighbors got 2 moths to live…cancer…we are sad and on high alert. Wait a few years you might understand the big pic.
Go for it run and hide…T2 sells fear. I’ve got 70 tenants and 700 people in my phone. Don’t know anyone with CV. Oh and my neighbor is WCB.
Wait till the hangover rolls out…….Its not the black plague. I deal with this according. I don’t push it like the tube…My god

—————

Cancer isn’t contagious.

#115 Westcdn on 08.23.20 at 7:41 pm

I haven’t my new neighbor’s choice of home – he could have bought a Mansion further out. My brief conversations with him lead me to believe he is not out to impress although he has nice toys inside the house. The place was rebuilt to his tastes. I like him. Keeps things simple and can afford what he wants that keep him serene. Obviously he treats his house as a home, not a trophy.

I wonder why cv19 is being treated as the black death. It can be if you are over 65, poor health and male. In my mind it describes most of our elites. Can lock downs be in place to protect their ample butts (there is that name again)? God knows these people love to be pampered by plebs. Why should they endanger themselves by being services by sickly plebs? Just a theory.

I should be toe the line lest I hear the words – “Release the hounds”. Not many elites impress me. They are focused like Macedonian phalanxes and Alexander the Great won battles with them until they refused to go further.

Woe to you if the opposition get behind you like the Romans did. Alexander died under questionable circumstances. In the last years of his life he adopted a Persian lifestyle which offended Greeks. Even Gods die.

I didn’t vote for Harper because I thought he was arrogant and dictatorial. I didn’t vote for T2 either and he has turned out worse. I am wondering if he is the son of Castro. I have a lot to learn about the politics of power. It resides in Central Canada and their gullibility.

#116 Tripp on 08.23.20 at 7:41 pm

#3 dogwhistle on 08.23.20 at 11:07 am

“ The big question is, will Justin transform Canada into France or even ‘better’ a Eastern European country pre 1989?”

I lived the first 21 years of my life in an Eastern European country, under a communist regime. Economically we will never be like them in that era, it is just not possible. On another hand (and I am convinced many of the former EE blog dogs would agree), I am more careful what I say today in Canada then back then. A tweet, a complain or a rumour can change one’s life drastically.

#117 Nonplused on 08.23.20 at 7:51 pm

“Enough Trump. People can legitimately hold disparate views to yours and this does not mean they are deranged or brainwashed. You are better than this. – Garth”

Sorry. I don’t mean to disparage people who are opposed to Trump either because of his policies or personality, my comments were directed more at the MSM and the various click bait they use. “He won’t leave”, for example, is an impossible position to believe, but it is on CNN all the time. The US political system has many faults, but it is probably one of if not the most resilient to takeover by a dictator ever created. That was the angle I was trying to go from. And I am not saying everyone has to like Trump. I don’t think anyone should like the MSM though…..

#118 april on 08.23.20 at 7:51 pm

#72 – Who do you think your kidding? My Realty Check, shows almost all red down arrows for Nr Van and almost all in the negative for West Van.

#119 Rock on 08.23.20 at 7:51 pm

Wrong! Trump 2020! He is all that stands between complete collapse. Stick to talking about housing- not the lies of global warming, vaccines will save us and you very limited knowledge of the history of fiat banking and the global banking cabal that has been working since 1913 to enslave us.

#120 april on 08.23.20 at 7:52 pm

#75 – Yes and for more reasons than driving and sitting in heavy traffic. Think about it.

#121 Ballingsford on 08.23.20 at 7:52 pm

All things aside with the new cons leader, who the hell in their right mind would want to step into this economic disaster and try to figure a way out. Pretty well impossible.

Trudeau shouldnt be able to just be able to lose an election and walk away from it.

That’s a problem. If we make errors in life, it follows us to the end.

#122 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.23.20 at 8:02 pm

#107 Nonplused on 08.23.20 at 6:48 pm
“When human nature changes, so will the nature of work. And we are not even close. – Garth”

It seems to me the nature of work has changed dramatically in the last 150 years. Heck when I started my first job only the managers had computers, everyone else had to book computer time in the “lab”. Now most of the kids bring their own device to school.

Of course some jobs cannot be done from home. Construction for example. Or appliance repair. Or lawn maintenance. Or driving for Uber. But accounting?
——————
Remember when we installed our first ATM/ABM machine at our bank branch in 1983.
Everyone predicted goodbye teller positions and brick and mortar.
After the novelty wore off and people realized line ups were the same, customers started lining up at [email protected] again.
Executives realized that the machines were not good at up-selling expensive products.
And customers, especially the older one, liked the human touch.
Also, culture is important in a diverse community.
Asians like brick and mortar. And like to make appointments with their money.
Canada’s first all virtual bank, Citizens Bank, closed its doors around 2010.
What I’m saying is, don’t discount human behavior.
Sometimes its better to consult with sociologists than economists.

#123 Bob in Hamilton on 08.23.20 at 8:02 pm

I’m not too fond of the Trumpster myself….and I think he will lose in November as many of his supporters will stay home as he has been mostly hot air these past 4 years.

However, the Democratic party alternative is frightening….hello President Biden.

#124 Drill Baby Drill on 08.23.20 at 8:03 pm

Garth I agree with your assessment on the future of interest rates in Canada. However I do have a nagging thought about international currency traders deciding to pick on the Loonie. These traders have done this in the past what is to stop them in the near future especially considering the enormous borrowing taking place in Ottawa?

#125 MF on 08.23.20 at 8:07 pm

“ In crisis there’s always opportunity. Some significant ones are coming. More on that soon”

-Why does Garth have to have the greatest cliffhangers ?

MF

#126 april on 08.23.20 at 8:08 pm

…for all you folks who believe the virus is a hoax, or overblown, not one of you asks the question, why would this be happening. Explain please…

#127 Nonplused on 08.23.20 at 8:16 pm

#115 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.23.20 at 8:02 pm

Well, there is truth in what you are saying, but I estimate my person to person interaction with the banks is down by 90% since 1983. Heck I don’t even mail anything to the CRA anymore. Pay any taxes owing online. The bank still sends me all kinds of T5’s in the mail but when I load up TurboTax they are all already there, so I don’t know why they aren’t just sending me an email.

I go to the bank when I need to transact in US dollars. That’s about it. And even that is on the decline. And once it really pissed me off because I went to a branch that I don’t usually frequent and the manager refused the check, even though it would be clear if she looked at the computer I had done this multiple times before and it was all legit. I was working for a US company and US companies for the most part do not know there is such a thing as a Canadian dollar. You work in the US, you get paid in USD.

#128 CEW9 on 08.23.20 at 8:19 pm

#58 Sara on 08.23.20 at 2:20 pm

#52 Joseph R. on 08.23.20 at 1:56 pm ” the Trumpers … won’t accept the results of the elections if Biden wins.
They are pretty emotional about it.”

But SailAway says the Trump voters (like him) are the logical ones and the Biden voters are the emotional ones.

________________________________________

People on one side of the political spectrum are not really different than people on the other side… there will always be “emotional” voters and “rational” voters on both sides.

I just wish everyone wasn’t so darn sure their opinions were the absolute and final truth on everything. All of us make mistakes, all of us have biased opinions, and every. single. one of us has been, and is, wrong about something.

A little humility would sure make this country run a lot better.

#129 Lorne on 08.23.20 at 8:22 pm

I am surprised and disappointed by all the “Trumpsters” on this blog. Hope to hear from you all on Nov. 4!

#130 Bill on 08.23.20 at 8:23 pm

Yuck, why would anyone want to live in Toronto

#131 Robert on 08.23.20 at 8:32 pm

The recession is probably already over. 2 quarters of negative gdp. The problem is that the drop in gdp was so large it will take years of positive quarters to go back to pre 2020 levels of output plus not to mention psychological aspect. That’s if we continually have positive quarters. We are in a depression. This event was already brewing before covid hit. Covid just accelerated the process. How is it that after a decade of record low interest rates, massive stimulus, and we experienced such low levels of inflation? Houses and financial assets are not part of that equation. The only thing that got inflated is real estate and financial assets. We were so good before covid that we had the highest debt to gdp? Just don’t look down i guess.

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.20 at 8:32 pm

@#122 Prehensile Ponzie
“Remember when we installed our first ATM/ABM machine at our bank branch in 1983.”

++++

1983?
Good God.

1977 in newfie Scotia
I remember my sister piling us into the family car to take us to the one bank machine in Halifax that was newly opened at the branch she worked at.
Only bank employees were given cards to “beta test” it before the rubes(customers) were allowed to use it.

You could withdraw money…..that was it.
No depositing, no bill payments, no account transfers, no other bank cards were accepted……..

It just gave cash and no overdraft.

It took about another two years before it was rolled out to the other busy branches in Hfx.

#133 the Jaguar on 08.23.20 at 8:39 pm

I am feeling real despair. Still talking ‘Trump talk’ while an opportunity for the Conservatives to look like leadership material is being blown before our eyes. How did this happen? There was all the time in the world to get it together, test drive methods, materials, and outcomes and now this public embarrassment on national television. The Liberal Party will have a field day with this. We’ve been roasting them daily on their ‘incompetence’ and now have to eat crow because nobody thought to test drive stupid bloody envelopes.
We really are a northern version of a Banana Republic. This grassroots vote business is bullsh_t!
And why the hell does the party allow the subject of abortion to keep being brought up in any form whatsoever? Don’t allow any candidate (Sloan) to run with that issue identified on their platform regardless of their personal opinion. CBC can’t leave it alone! It’s like flying the Confederate Flag. People hear it and it poisons everything the Conservatives really stand for because the left media jumps all over it. I am angry, because without a real opposition our country is going down the drain. Looks what has happened in the past 6 months.
We are lost.

#134 Nonplused on 08.23.20 at 8:42 pm

#117 Nonplused on 08.23.20 at 7:51 pm

Ya commenting on my own comment. Consider it a PS.

Trudeau survived black face. You know because a lot of people in Ontario and Quebec like his policies. So we don’t do the Ad Hominem attacks over some university age party. I still don’t like Trudeau one little bit but not because of black face, I couldn’t care less about that he was in costume, but don’t policies matter? Oh I think policies matter. I’d vote for Garth, but not because of his beard. Couldn’t really care less about that.

#135 Do we have all the facts on 08.23.20 at 8:42 pm

#84 Fishman

My thoughts exactly. The general theme on this blog is that high unemployment will be temporary and may fall below 5.0% in 2021.

In recent years self employment and so called ‘gig’ employment has inflated job creation numbers and stats related to CERB certainly exposed serious weaknesses
in the Canadian labour force.

The loss of permanent positions in the retail, hospitality, travel and construction sectors of our economy have yet to be accurately measured. In addition it seems probable that all levels of government will be forced into austerity and a reduction in the size of their payroll until the GDP expands by more than 3.0% for five years.

Optimism alone will not pay the bills and history has proven that periods of austerity never results in a significant increase in the Canadian labour force.

The domino effect of high unemployment is very difficult to slow down or reverse. Even more difficult when the destination for 75% of our exports is desperately facing a similar employment crisis.

#136 Don Guillermo on 08.23.20 at 8:50 pm

Are the Edmonton Oilers 50/50 team running the Conservative leadership race?

#137 crossbordershopper on 08.23.20 at 8:55 pm

rates are going to near zero, and will stay there effectively for ever,
the largest debtor in the world are federal govt, they will crush our economy with trillions in debt, rates cant be more than 1%.
we will be running huge deficits forever, and rates will be zero effectively.
taxes will go up and job opportunity will be lower for most canadians.
inflation rates are lies anyone can see that who has been out of their house in the past 6 months.
inflation replaces interest rates, we all become poorer, this is the end results, yes the nominal price is higher, and inflation offsets it.
its going to be bad for a lot of people moving forward, old, poor, un healthy, etc. brace yourself for a bumpy road ahead.

#138 Ace Goodheart on 08.23.20 at 9:07 pm

It is wild in Toronto right now. I have never seen it like this. Not in 2017. Not during any major price run up.

It used to be, you could get into the house with a little bit of pushing, and you could easily find out the night they were having the auction.

Now, you can’t. The realtors won’t even talk to you. If you are lucky enough to be one of the select few who get invited to the auction, you get to bid on the house. But it is hard to even get to that point.

If you don’t have an agent, forget it. Not happening. They literally will not talk to you.

If you do have an agent, it is hard.

This is the worst I have ever seen it in Toronto. For someone who is trying to purchase a SFH, detached, in Toronto right now, I wish you all the luck in the world.

You are going to need it.

#139 YouKnowWho on 08.23.20 at 9:13 pm

#126 april on 08.23.20 at 8:08 pm
…for all you folks who believe the virus is a hoax, or overblown, not one of you asks the question, why would this be happening. Explain please…

———-

This was covered here. Reality if this this is that even though we have a leading theory, no one knows 100% an answer to your question.

It could be nature taking humanity and our ways down a notch. Not only are we disruptive to nature, we’re lazy, overweight, smoke, drink, eat sugar, take recreational drugs – or prescribed ones as they’re just as bad in many cases. And so the herd is larger, older and lesser health than ever before sitting by a screen – and nature cometh to collect dues.

Or it could be one of the many things that makes others declare you a conspiracy theorist. But reality is, they are all possibilities today.

Information is lacking significantly.

Scientists are sounding like politicians. They’ve said plenty of crazy and self serving stuff.

I could tell many things, or you can listen to Joe Rogan podcast with Bret Weinstein #1494 I think. Who am I after all? They really cover this incredibly well, including very curious things about this virus. You want to twist your brain to how messed up the system is, that episode is a good start. And if that information about the lab mice doesn’t blow your mind and make you question the entire medical science community, I don’t know what I can say.

Forgive the need to delete Garth! 800k is just 1.28% of 64m crude though. I stand by my math. :-)

DYK 5k people die chocking on food each year? Chocking, just like Covid goes hard after the seniors too. So chew slowly people!

#140 Millennial Realist on 08.23.20 at 9:13 pm

Paleo Conservative incompetence on full display today.

These nitwits are 3 hours late just managing their own internal puny election, and expect to be able to manage a country? Good grief.

Their supporters are mostly Boomers across the country who just don’t get the changes that we need to make to embrace a new world. Most of them still want to outlaw abortions and have anti-immigrant registries.

It’s okay though – this convention is meaningless. Just focus on what will come from Ottawa starting September 23. That is Canada.

Big changes coming in weeks.

So, Paleo Boomer Cons:

Be part of the change.

Or be run over by it.

#141 Kamloops on 08.23.20 at 9:30 pm

DELETED

#142 N on 08.23.20 at 9:32 pm

An interesting article…
With so many looking for ideas to avert a housing bubble – this idea could be visited in Canada too.
Not sure how Bank Shareholders would react to this…

Such an arrangement of banks having an equity stake in properties of their customers is not a new concept.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/how-to-hold-back-a-flood-of-mortgage-defaults-when-loan-holiday-is-over-20200820-p55ns0

#143 Ace Goodheart on 08.23.20 at 9:35 pm

RE: #1 Mandatory home buying on 08.23.20 at 10:56 am

There is some wild price appreciation going on in the SFH detached housing market in Toronto right now.

Things are approaching what was happening in Vancouver, with “contract flipping” and houses increasing in value by hundreds of thousands of dollars overnight.

I have lived in Toronto for most of my life and I have never seen it like this. It’s a feeding frenzy. It is like what would happen if you starved a tank full of sharks for six months and then threw in some live bait.

It is all SFH’s and semis.

Condos, it is crickets. Nothing. If you want to buy a condo, just go and buy one. Offer a few hundred thousand below list price. You’ll probably get it. Offer conditional. Doesn’t matter. People are desperate to sell their condos for some reason.

Our friends are trying to off load a pre-sale condo they bought a few years back (they lined up for hours in January). They are just trying to get out. They will lose money on the sale, but they don’t care. Just trying to get rid of the contract to anyone who will buy it from them. They remind me of folks I knew who were willing to pay someone to purchase their time share.

Alongside this completely dead, rotting condo market there is this frantic, no holds barred SFH detached house market where you have to “know” someone to get “invited” to the “offer night” auction (where you will bid with about 40 other people on one house, that will go for a record setting price).

It’s scary to watch this. We own our house outright (no mortgage) and once a week we have a look at zoocasa (bungol got shut down) to see how much more it is worth. It goes up by about 100K per week. I am not kidding (we are in Bloor West, but still, 100K per week?).

Last week it went up by 350K. In one week! (the house a few doors down from us, listed at the “market price” for the street ($1,500,000.00) sold for $1,850,000.00 in an auction in which the entire street was blocked off in both directions for parking for Agents and their clients.

This is absolutely nuts. I have not seen this in my lifetime. The price appreciation is just spectacular.

#144 Spectacle on 08.23.20 at 9:38 pm

#39 the Jaguar on 08.23.20 at 1:33 pm
@#31 Don Guillermo on 08.23.20 at 1:04 pm

Guess it will depend on what people like BillyBob refer to as the ‘load’. Keep hope alive.

There is always Cuba as well. I would bet the farm that the saturday WestJet flight…..
————-

Cuba just endured a Masive, Serious re lockdown. ( don’t even think of defying lockdown rules ; nay nay nay!)
Opening up, it turns out, had created stupid pandemic growth.

#145 Bill on 08.23.20 at 9:44 pm

#114 Looking up
Cancer isn’t contagious.
——————————–
Hello.
If you have MYELOMA and get CV its a death sentence.
WE were so careful and hopeful….and Just got the news.
She wont get through 2 months….
It was a covid issue that didn’t allow her to go to her fathers funeral in Van as well. An Amazing highly decorated war vet that flew a Hurricane with 3000HP at 18 years old to help beat the Germans. SAD
SO YES if you are high risk be vigilant….as hell.
The bugs buggered many things.

#146 chester in summer on 08.23.20 at 9:56 pm

the plutocrats…

a game changer,

#147 Billy Buoy on 08.23.20 at 9:59 pm

Robust Growth only if your buddies at the central bank for the 1000000000000000000000000000000 time add more stimulus.

Ever hear of diminishing returns on stimulus money that can’t be borrowed as everyone is up to their ass in debt?

#148 Looking up on 08.23.20 at 10:09 pm

#145 Bill on 08.23.20 at 9:44 pm
#114 Looking up
Cancer isn’t contagious.
——————————–
Hello.
If you have MYELOMA and get CV its a death sentence.
WE were so careful and hopeful….and Just got the news.
She wont get through 2 months….
It was a covid issue that didn’t allow her to go to her fathers funeral in Van as well. An Amazing highly decorated war vet that flew a Hurricane with 3000HP at 18 years old to help beat the Germans. SAD
SO YES if you are high risk be vigilant….as hell.
The bugs buggered many things.

—————-

Bill, no disrespect intended. To be honest I’m kind of lost as to what direction our conversation went.

#149 Millennial Realist on 08.23.20 at 10:15 pm

OMG, now the party of Scheer stupidity is an extra hour late in coming up with results!

(Even the Jaguar said it nicely, from his Con perspective.)

What utter incompetence is at the core of the entire Conservative movement. Now it is just much clearer to see.

Mulroney racked up the debt. Harris impoverished Ontario and sold off assets to give tax breaks to the rich. Harper created a ridiculous housing bubble that will one day crash our whole economy. Decades of Albertan Con leaders screwed up the Heritage Fund and set that province up for poverty.

And now these Paleo Con idiots who can’t even manage a little paperwork want to take us back to the 1880s and treat women like slaves, annihilate the environment to please deluded westerners and extend their last-gasp oil economy, while driving a wedge through the heart of Canada.

There is no future with Conservatives. The PR disaster they are gifting to the Liberals tonight will guarantee they won’t be in power again for years.

Most Canadians will happily take Chrystia, Justin, with the support of Jag, any day, over this incompetent cluster****.

Be part of the change, Paleo Boomer Cons.

Or be run over by it.

(And the change is right on your tail starting tonight – you are about to be crushed if you don’t change yourselves. Hear the engine behind you?)

What a party, a movement, of complete dinosaurs!

#150 Boomer Bill on 08.23.20 at 10:16 pm

#143 Ace Goodheart

I hear yah Ace. A home sold off Bloor and Islington, decrepit bungalow for $1.35 million. 1.5% rates are wreaking havoc. Boomers selling out and moving to the hinterland are winning the lottery.

#151 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.23.20 at 10:17 pm

#127 Nonplus
that’s actualy what’s happening too much on this blog.
Posters are extrapolating their own experiences to the rest of the world.
What works for you, does not necessarily work for other people.
I don’t go to the bank too often but when I go there are always lineups.
I always find that complaints are much faster solved via person to person then over the phone.
I could give many more examples, but I’m already over my quota.

#152 Al on 08.23.20 at 10:24 pm

Trump will have to taken out of the White House in handcuffs as he will refuse to concede defeat and leave.

#153 PastThePeak on 08.23.20 at 10:49 pm

Part of the reason that some dismiss the current virus is the view that the “flu” kills just about the same number each year. But there is no counting of flu deaths annually (it is just modelling) – and the cause of death category is combined into “flu and pneumonia” (flu is estimated at maybe 10% of those).

But there was a somewhat recent flu event that was tracked much more closely (with lots of tests and counting) – the H1N1 flu of 2009. So how does COVID-19 compare to that?

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010 (so a full 1 year), CDC estimated there were 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

This compares with an estimated 180,000 deaths currently in the US, over a period of 6 months. So in half the time, the number of deaths is almost 15x, for what was considered a very bad flu season.

FWIW, I don’t consider lockdowns anywhere close to the best policy solution. But that is no reason to avoid reality, and understand how this time is different than a “bad flu”.

#154 Sara on 08.23.20 at 10:50 pm

#53 Dolce Vita on 08.23.20 at 2:03 pm
“Arguably, Trump has not done a good job with COVID-19, no, not by any stretch of the imagination (4.3% of the World’s population, 24.4% of the World’s COVID-19 cases, 21.9% of Worldwide COVID-19 deaths…not exactly a resounding endorsement let alone a success story).”
——————————
#81 Sail Away on 08.23.20 at 4:25 pm
“Most people who are alive don’t care in the slightest.
It’s a non-issue.”
—————————–
What a callous statement, when hundreds of thousands have died. Time you took a break from this blog. Bye. – Garth
—————————–

Oh thank dog! He’s finally been told to sail away.

#155 Ronaldo on 08.23.20 at 11:07 pm

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.20 at 8:32 pm
@#122 Prehensile Ponzie
“Remember when we installed our first ATM/ABM machine at our bank branch in 1983.”

++++

1983?
Good God.

1977 in newfie Scotia
I remember my sister piling us into the family car to take us to the one bank machine in Halifax that was newly opened at the branch she worked at.
Only bank employees were given cards to “beta test” it before the rubes(customers) were allowed to use it.

You could withdraw money…..that was it.
No depositing, no bill payments, no account transfers, no other bank cards were accepted……..

It just gave cash and no overdraft.
——————————————————————
#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.20 at 8:32 pm
@#122 Prehensile Ponzie
“Remember when we installed our first ATM/ABM machine at our bank branch in 1983.”

++++

1983?
Good God.

1977 in newfie Scotia
I remember my sister piling us into the family car to take us to the one bank machine in Halifax that was newly opened at the branch she worked at.
Only bank employees were given cards to “beta test” it before the rubes(customers) were allowed to use it.

You could withdraw money…..that was it.
No depositing, no bill payments, no account transfers, no other bank cards were accepted……..

It just gave cash and no overdraft.
—————————————————————
Anyone remember the ChargeX card.

https://newsroom.td.com/featured-news/happy-birthday-chargex-the-credit-card-turns-50

This is the first charge card that I remember receiving in the mail. Didn’t really know what it was for at the time so just put it in my wallet. About a year later 1969 wife and I went on a vacation to the prairies and on return trip had car troubles which pretty much cleaned out what cash we had alloted for our holiday. So here we are in Loydminster with maybe 20 bucks in our pocket and heading back to Vancouver wondering how we are going to do it without having parents wire us the money.

We get into Edmonton and car still not operating well so we headed down to railway station as we had heard of Cargo Rail where you could load your car on the train and take the coach. When we got to the ticket counter I noticed a sign on the counter with ChargeX on it and asked the clerk what that was as I had a card in my wallet. He told me that they could accept the card as payment for the car and ourselves to get to Vancouver.
That was definatley a life saver for us and our first experience with a credit card. Anyone else remember this one.

In 71 or 72 I believe it was the Royal Bank that came up with a card that you could use to get cash from an ATM machine. The first machine was at a bank on Kingsway and there was another in New Westminster. So that was my first experience with an ATM. They were located outside the bank on the outside wall. As I recall, it was linked to your bank account.

#156 Millennial Realist on 08.23.20 at 11:13 pm

A revealing evening. Soon to be morning.

Consider how the Conservatives utterly bungled tonight’s once in a decade opportunity to promote themselves. And if the race is close, a total disaster lies ahead. (Kind of exactly what Conservative Team Trump
is actually planning to do!)

Now compare that to how quickly, effectively and compassionately the Liberals rolled out CERB, CEWS and CECRA. Those programs are greatly appreciated by Canadians. (The only holdbacks have been caused by Conservatives, such as right wing commercial landlords who don’t want to take part in CECRA because they are selfish, hateful and greedy) Those programs have saved Canada from an immediate depression, and there will be even more help after September 23. (Even Doug Ford says Justin has been “great”, Cons)

Seriously, with the complex and changing world we have to deal with now, why would you put a Conservative in charge of any kind of project?

Walking your dog maybe? Too complicated. Perhaps Conservative party people could qualify to walk around the neighbourhood with their campaign envelopes and use them to pick up doggie poop, though.

Why would anyone vote for them after tonight?

#157 Ronaldo on 08.23.20 at 11:16 pm

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.20 at 8:32 pm

I was pretty close on my dates when the first ATMs came to be. Here is the link. 52 years ago now.

https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2019/11/29/this-day-in-history-today-canada-history-dec-1-1969-cash-and-convenience-finally-meet/

#158 Janice Lark on 08.23.20 at 11:37 pm

DELETED

#159 Surrey for 900K? on 08.23.20 at 11:47 pm

The house next door went on the market late last week. It’s listed for 900K in Surrey. We knew something was up, because they cut the lawn for the first time this year.

The Open House on Friday evening caused a traffic jam in the neighbourhood as there weren’t enough places to park.

A steady stream of viewers have been through the home all weekend. They are masked up, but the whole family is present. No SOLD sign yet…

#160 Overheard on 08.24.20 at 12:00 am

Two Ontarians were walking the fine streets of Toronto when one asked the other “So have we reached the full socialist utopia yet?” The other replied “Oh hell no things are going to get a lot worse.”

(Yes I know it’s an old Regan Joke.)

#161 RT2020 on 08.24.20 at 12:05 am

You really seem to be pushing an agenda with this one Gartho. But you’re on the wrong side of history.

Work from home was already quickly growing before Covid. It’s not all or nothing though (think 2-3 days a week). Flexible work is the future, and it results in a happier more productive workforce.

It absolutely will impact commercial office real estate and suburbanization. No ‘exodus’ however, unless the massive civil unrest spreads up here from American Cities.

#162 SoggyShorts on 08.24.20 at 12:25 am

#113 Nonplused on 08.23.20 at 7:19 pm

– the “popular vote” hoax
– the tax return hoax

*******************
What are those?
Did Trump win the popular vote and release his tax returns?

I dunno, maybe I do have TDS… but I’d also say if someone uses the word hoax more than twice a week and doesn’t believe that Trump is guilty of anything then maybe the MAGA hat is a little tight and pulled down over their eyes.

#163 the Jaguar on 08.24.20 at 1:03 am

Almost 11:00 pm in the great province of Alberta. Star Trek movie over, and the first ballot finally in on Conservative Leadership race. MacKay ain’t gonna make it according to the numbers. All the pundits scratching their heads about why O’Toole did so well in Quebec, but Chantal Herbert nailed earlier on this evening when she said ‘ when the Conservatives do well in Quebec it’s because they win the french voters over’. The french have those tendencies. They vote with their hearts. They don’t give a crap about ‘appearances’, which is why they were willing to stand up and give the finger to the rest of Canada on the issue of wearing religious symbols in public offices and wouldn’t be shamed about it. The only identity politics that will work there involve coming down on the side of french Canada. Trump could get elected there because they won’t be scolded by the rest of the country.
One has to feel very happy about how well Leslyn Lewis did. She comes across as very sincere. If O’Toole is smart he will make her an offer she can’t refuse. Vice President equivalent. They might prove unbeatable.

#164 VicPaul on 08.24.20 at 1:21 am

#22 forgotmyusername on 08.23.20 at 12:27 pm
People who dislike President Trump are sure he’ll lose because ….Orange Man is so, so terribly…Bad!

Here’s the thing many cannot see from within that echo-chamber: one need not like Trump (at all) to prefer his policies.

The anti-Trumpers are sure Joe Biden is a better human being.

But that’s not the only question on the ballot. What about the Democratic 2020 party platform? Will a majority of Americans vote for that?
https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/

Kamala Harris may look like a great pick, but she campaigned so poorly that she had to leave the 2020 field early.

Does America really want Harris a heartbeat away from the presidency, under 77-year-old Joe Biden? Possibly not.

The best way I heard Trump explained back in 2016 went like this:

Trump supporters take Trump seriously, but not literally. (They ignore his crazy talk as silly showmanship. And just pay attention to his policy goals.)

Trump detractors take him literally, but not seriously. (He’s crazy! He’s uncouth! It’s obvious! No one will support him!!) …

*********

As well articulated as I’ve heard – thanks for sharing your lucid, dispassionate explanation. It may even help some of the real off-the-deep-end TDS souls.

M56BC

#165 Future Freedom from Dictators and Tyrants on 08.24.20 at 1:22 am

First on this blog to congratulate PM O’Toole come to save Canada from the Liberal dupes and their Globalist masters.

#166 Steerage millennial on 08.24.20 at 1:39 am

Way to go cons… going for the millenial youth vote with a new leader younger than T2!!!

#167 Jane24 on 08.24.20 at 3:28 am

My 30 something kids here in London England are not at all keen to go back on public transportation, packed in like sardines. They are delighted to be working from from home and have a better work/life balance. Their babies are all delighted too. Their own employers, global tech and a major architectural firm, will be moving in 2021 to a blended system of 2 days in and 3 days at home. I think that for office workers this will be the new norm so the cities will come back partly but never as they were. They will never be the center of the universe again to so many people. Life is too short.

But Garth is right in that unemployment will be structural and will get worse. Covid 19 has given a massive shot up the bum to AI which will take so many jobs. I don’t see unemployment below 10% again in my lifetime. If you add in the folk doing part-time who would prefer full-time and the people who are under-employed, doing jobs that are over-qualified for, more like 20% unemployment. THIS is what will bring housing down in a few years.

#168 BillyBob on 08.24.20 at 5:14 am

#125 MF on 08.23.20 at 8:07 pm
“ In crisis there’s always opportunity. Some significant ones are coming. More on that soon”

-Why does Garth have to have the greatest cliffhangers ?

MF

================================================

And why aren’t you telling him how useless his opinions on WFH are, given their alignment with my own? Not quite as tough with the host, hmm? lol

#169 Frustrated Kiwi on 08.24.20 at 5:31 am

I agree. I was surprised how quickly working remotely died here in NZ when we went to Level 1 (virus eliminated from community) and will likely again once this current cluster gets mopped up.

#170 maxx on 08.24.20 at 7:36 am

“The downtown towers will be repopulated and the hip urban lifestyle even more desired after months of Netflix and walking your dog on a cul-de-sac of zombies.”

Already happening.

Something’s stirring in some urban parts. Neighbour in the same type of unit as ours just sold for nearly double what we paid – two years ago.

So much for the dreaded “condos are petri dishes” device…..I just don’t buy it. Never did.

People want into a place with zero Airbnb, no smoking, no pot, no combustibles whatsoever. If you need your THC, you can stuff it……in your brownies. Residents don’t want to smell nor hear you. When buildings get it right: People. Want. In. We’ve sampled some of the others and found the newest ones are veneered cardboard quality (granite and stainless with your corn flakes?) People will want proximity to everything, best walk scores, lock and leave, quality and space. We have nearly 1800 sf in one of the best managed buildings. Anywhere.

I think I’ll pass on the zombie burbs. Been there, done that, hated it. Never again. Boring doesn’t begin to cover it. Mind numbing.

#171 Do we have all the facts on 08.24.20 at 8:16 am

When did coming into contact with a virus become linked with the possibility of death?

Human beings have been dealing with viral and bacterial infections for thousands of years without seeing the need to shutdown major sectors of their economies and forcing millions of healthy ncitizens to rely on billions of dollars in government handouts.

Prior to late 2019 politicians and health authorities around the world were fully aware that all viral and bacterial infections posed a risk of death to citizens with compromised immune systems, including the majority of citizens over 65 years of age.

In spite of this knowledge they continued to group hundreds of thousands of their most vulnerable citizens four to a room in institutions with a very basic level of health care. Of more concern is the fact that our governments decided to leave them in overcrowded environments after a viral infection was identified. Remember of 80% of the 9,100 deaths being attributed to the Covid 19 in Canada were residents of a long term care facility.

Surely a government that can generate $350 billion to mitigate the impact of Covid 19 on citizens with healthy immune systems and an extremely low risk of death could have afforded the implementation of measures to protect all citizens with compromised immune systems.

I would like to know just how much our governments have dedicated to improving the accommodation and health care of Canadian citizens with compromised immune systems in 2020. The continuation of subsidies to healthy Canadians forced out of the labour force will do nothing to protect vulnerable citizens from the impact of viral or bacterial infections in the future.

There is a level of hypocrisy in Canada that seems to be increasing as the actual facts about Covid 19 emerge. The Covid 19 virus becomes lethal when individuals with weakened immune systems remain exposed to the virus for prolonged periods. Density of accommodation is a major contributor to mortality related to viral or bacterial infections. The obvious solution is to isolate the most vulnerable at the first sign of infection not leave them to suffer within a crowded institution. The mainstream media has been virtually silent on this issue.

The truth about Covid 19 has been hidden by a blanket of hysteria and this hysteria has deflected criticism away from the implementation of measures that are necessary to reduce the impact of viral infections in the future.

A detailed examination of all facts related to the Covid 19 virus is essential to assure that appropriate measures are implemented to protect all Canadian citizens in the future.

#172 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.24.20 at 8:27 am

Of the 4 candidates O’Toole would have been my pick. Let’s see where he goes with this.

Pandering to the left is useless. Be in the centre right and you’ll have a chance.

#173 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.24.20 at 8:29 am

@#140 Millennial Surrealist
“Be part of the change.
Or be run over by it.”

++++

Well if “change” is a Half Trillion $$$$ Debt in 18 months ……….

You will be run over by it.
Enjoy higher taxes….forever.
Thank Trudeau.
bwahahahahahaha

#174 Neo on 08.24.20 at 8:30 am

I am not quite sure why we have to deal in extremes here with Covid. Any time you question what has happened it automatically goes to a denier or a hoax. It’s neither. The fact is early in the pandemic we allowed seniors at end of life to die from this even with the population locked down. That’s why 60-80% of deaths in North America were in old folks homes. That is the take away here. We knew they were the most vulnerable and we allowed them to die anyway through historical neglect and neglect within the lockdowns.

To illustrate this point look at what has happened in the US with rising cases but considerably lower death rates because the infections rates are skewing far younger than earlier in the crises.

Florida, Texas and California which are all larger population wise now have far more cases but a fraction of the deaths.

California 670,055 cases 12,152 deaths
Texas 604,303 cases 11,812 deaths
Florida 800,571 cases 10,333 deaths

New York 460,460 cases 32,967 deaths

Those three states basically have the total deaths of New York. New York deaths per 1 million is 1,695 and those three states is 308 to 481.

Cuomo sending seniors with Covid back to homes was a crime. It caused their numbers to be exponentially larger than they had to be.

The same has occurred in Canada with respect to the virus not being contained in homes. The death rate has plunged even though the cases have piled up because Quebec and Ontario are doing a better job of protecting old folks homes.

It would never have turned into a pandemic in the first place if the majority of the people getting it were under 40 like has been the case this summer. It only became that when seniors were stricken with it early on.

…and we all know old people are less valuable. Good logic. – Garth

#175 YouKnowWho on 08.24.20 at 8:32 am

#153 PastThePeak

——————————

I hear what you’re saying. Thing is, data quality is an issue. WHO has issued directives about cause of death assignment that potentially inflate numbers. Many who would have died within days or weeks anyway because of very poor health are now counted as Covid deaths if they caught it in last days of they lives (senior care homes/palliative care places for example). No other cause is attributed in the numbers. You have to keep that data bias in mind. Also, Covid deaths are counted so closely, it is a point to keep in mind. Example: annual flu, you’ll get all kinds of estimated data in official communication, because no one cares to count that closely or accurately. You’ll read things like 45-95k deaths or 70-150k. Etc. But Covid, 4763 <- precise count.

But the Covid death number, it could easily be argued is of questionable quality. Strangely, the flu has completely disappeared from the face of the earth it seems as well. Did you notice?

Let’s bring it back to real estate. With Covid, they are reporting total units sold but aren’t braking down detached (diabetes), semi (overweight), condo (pre-existing condition), commercial (age), etc. And when that detail is factored in, suddenly you realize that there is a usual element of nature’s M.O. present – weeding out the old and week. It lacks compassion, but then again nature isn’t all that compassionate. Just like we (humanity) aren’t all that compassionate to nature.

We have become detached from nature. We abuse her and take her for granted. We mess with her and her gifts. I’ve said this before, she deserves to get a few punches in on humanity. We’ve grown too soft to accept those rules of the game it seems.

#1 cause of death is living. Go live your day. Tomorrow really isn’t guaranteed. That’s Covid’s reminder.

#176 Captain Uppa on 08.24.20 at 8:35 am

#18 Sam on 08.23.20 at 12:03 pm
Garth wasn’t it you saying no one wants to live in newmarket and prices coming down? GTA will always be less likely impacted from falling prices.

———————————————————

That’s an asinine comment. Why can’t people just lay roots where they want to lay roots? Why is Toronto or other major city cores always considered some kind of gold standard for living?

I was born and raised in Toronto and I like it, but given my stage of life, absolutely abhor going there now. However, I would not say to someone who does reside there “you live in a place no one wants to be in”.

This argument of what town or city is better, large or small, far or near, is like nails on a chalkboard to me.

Grow up everyone. It’s ignorant and dismissive.

#177 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.24.20 at 8:39 am

@#156 Millenial Reality Check
“Now compare that to how quickly, effectively and compassionately the Liberals rolled out CERB, CEWS and CECRA.”

+++++

Ahahahahha.

Its pretty easy to look “quick and effective” when you’re shovelling BILLIONS of tax dollars off the back of a dumptruck to anyone with their hands out.

I cant wait to see Trudeau and O’Toole in a debate.
A lawyer vs a school teacher.
Facts vs Ummm, errrr, ahhhhh.

Just glad Peter MacKay’s leadership bid finally, finally has been put to rest.

#178 Extremely self aware on 08.24.20 at 8:41 am

DELETED

#179 Extremely self aware on 08.24.20 at 8:43 am

DELETED

#180 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.24.20 at 8:43 am

@#143 Ace
“This is absolutely nuts. I have not seen this in my lifetime. The price appreciation is just spectacular.”

++++

Now ….does that sound like a balloon that is about to burst?

Here comes Fall…….

#181 Dharma Bum on 08.24.20 at 8:47 am

#52 Stone

I suspect those who came up with the concept were actually psychopaths. Actually, I don’t suspect. I’m 99.9% certain.
——————————————————————–

You are correct:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/our-humanity-naturally/201103/why-corporations-are-psychotic

Oh, and for those worrying about a “second wave”, don’t.

It’s like “The Second Coming”…ain’t happening.

Sorry, not sorry.

#182 Toronto_CA on 08.24.20 at 8:56 am

#169 Frustrated Kiwi on 08.24.20 at 5:31 am
I agree. I was surprised how quickly working remotely died here in NZ when we went to Level 1 (virus eliminated from community) and will likely again once this current cluster gets mopped up.
____________

That’s very interesting. I’m in London UK at the moment, and firm after firm is popping up in the papers about moving away from 9-5 M-F office hours as a rule. Our lockdowns are technically over, but no professional services offices have reopened with anywhere close to 100% so far. My firm is at 5% for now, moving to 20% in mid-September. No real target dates for the next phase, but it isn’t expected until 2021 to be even at 50%.

I think everyone is approaching with a wait and see attitude, with fear of a second wave this winter driving the risk and facilities teams.

I have a senior manager starting in December, so I will want to onboard them in person at least 3 days a week for the month.

#183 Dharma Bum on 08.24.20 at 9:04 am

Trump will likely win again because, for the Dems, this election is about trying to get him to lose, not trying to get Biden to win.

Nobody actually wants Biden as a president. They just don’t want Trump.

However, the people that need to actually get out and vote, to tip the balance, won’t.

Too many so-called “democrats” are actually unregistered, unmotivated, elderly, uneducated, poor, disabled, or not inclined to make the effort it takes to participate in the election. Many of the would-be democrat supporters are also victims of blatant voter suppression.

The deck is stacked in favour of the Trumpster, and the GOP will use that imbalance to their full advantage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSmamGdoGX4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBjrLJf7JZE

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/07/poll-prri-voter-suppression/565355/

#184 JB CONDO DEATH on 08.24.20 at 9:18 am

#143 Ace Goodheart on 08.23.20 at 9:35 pm

RE: #1 Mandatory home buying on 08.23.20 at 10:56 am
There is some wild price appreciation going on in the SFH detached housing market in Toronto right now.

Things are approaching what was happening in Vancouver, with “contract flipping” and houses increasing in value by hundreds of thousands of dollars overnight.

I have lived in Toronto for most of my life and I have never seen it like this. It’s a feeding frenzy. It is like what would happen if you starved a tank full of sharks for six months and then threw in some live bait.

It is all SFH’s and semis.

Condos, it is crickets. Nothing. If you want to buy a condo, just go and buy one. Offer a few hundred thousand below list price. You’ll probably get it. Offer conditional. Doesn’t matter. People are desperate to sell their condos for some reason.

Our friends are trying to off load a pre-sale condo they bought a few years back (they lined up for hours in January). They are just trying to get out. They will lose money on the sale, but they don’t care. Just trying to get rid of the contract to anyone who will buy it from them. They remind me of folks I knew who were willing to pay someone to purchase their time share.

Alongside this completely dead, rotting condo market there is this frantic, no holds barred SFH detached house market where you have to “know” someone to get “invited” to the “offer night” auction (where you will bid with about 40 other people on one house, that will go for a record setting price).

It’s scary to watch this. We own our house outright (no mortgage) and once a week we have a look at zoocasa (bungol got shut down) to see how much more it is worth. It goes up by about 100K per week. I am not kidding (we are in Bloor West, but still, 100K per week?).

Last week it went up by 350K. In one week! (the house a few doors down from us, listed at the “market price” for the street ($1,500,000.00) sold for $1,850,000.00 in an auction in which the entire street was blocked off in both directions for parking for Agents and their clients.
………………………………………………………………
The CONDO market is a dead cat and it wont bounce for at least five years imho. People are deathly afraid of what this pandemic and the next virus will bring to congested high density living where every day you will pass and touch tens if not hundreds of people in close proximity. Cough, cough, sniff, sniff aaachoo. Sorry my fellow lift patrons. We have some older retirees in the family that have concrete coffins in the sky and they have listed them. They are going to the outer burbs for a one floor bungalow type of linked home. Freehold and fresh air where they can walk out the front door and not have to pass another person. Two of them have preexisting lung conditions and can not take another wave of high-rise isolation and the potential rise of catching a deadly virus. The one wife literally has had to see a doctor for help with the severe depression. Surprisingly the traffic is heavy but no offers of an consequence yet. Investors are cherry picking.
The $hit show is playing out as we talk.
Further to Aces scribe yes we have has the same folly out here in the lower east end near the Beach.

#185 Patty on 08.24.20 at 9:20 am

Unfortunately I have a hunch that the election of a new leader as someone yet again pandering to ‘social conservative’ values will mark the end of what used to be the PC party in my youth. I just don’t get what this party is about. The dog-whistling and hypocrisy is writ large, regardless of Erin’s talking about how inclusive he is and how “everyone” has a home in the Conservative party. In reality, that’s just not the truth inside the party since 2003.

The Liberals are probably waking up in a very good mood today.

Looks like “Sunny ways” for them.

#186 JB CONDO DEATH on 08.24.20 at 9:22 am

#177 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.24.20 at 8:39 am

@#156 Millenial Reality Check
“Now compare that to how quickly, effectively and compassionately the Liberals rolled out CERB, CEWS and CECRA.”

+++++

Ahahahahha.

Its pretty easy to look “quick and effective” when you’re shovelling BILLIONS of tax dollars off the back of a dumptruck to anyone with their hands out.

I cant wait to see Trudeau and O’Toole in a debate.
A lawyer vs a school teacher.
Facts vs Ummm, errrr, ahhhhh.

Just glad Peter MacKay’s leadership bid finally, finally has been put to rest.
…………………………………………………………………
Do you think Mr Socks will have to say to O’Toole “I wont debate you but lets box it out?” If O’Toole says nope we debate then Trudeau will probably cry. Lawyer vs Teach ha, not a debate a slaughter. I smell blood.

#187 David Hawke on 08.24.20 at 9:26 am

#165 Future Freedom from Dictators and Tyrants on 08.24.20 at 1:22 am
First on this blog to congratulate PM O’Toole come to save Canada from the Liberal dupes and their Globalist masters.

Delusion has NO bounds, EH!

#188 TurnerNation on 08.24.20 at 9:27 am

#122 BillyBob nailed the topic I’d planned to write.

“As someone else commented, sitting at home glued to one’s screen will absolutely have negative consequences. Already has. My Gen Z nieces are almost incapable of a conversation face to face in person anymore (great at making TikTok vids though). Zero attention span”
….
And that is, anyone coming up age in past 10 years has never known freedom; never will. That device in their hand is new slave owner. The global techno state is full in control. Fall school sounds like h-ll. The New System cancelled all decadent culture, it was purged by the commies. Re-education underway. Same old same old.
No school bands, dance recitals, plays; school trips; and so on. No CNE or PNE. Canada’s Wonderland is closed (too dangerous!). But why? Some say the goal is making life here to bad, unbearable that it drives them into VR goggles or similar. The world our elites have built for them.
Again nothing new: Tune in, turn on and Drop out.

Their ‘smart’ (it sure is) phone runs their live. Dozens of cross-platform algos conspire to drive their behavior.
Their phone controls every step: Stand here on your mark; Scan this QR code; line up here. Daily propaganda updates overwhelm. This is classic psychological control. In the old days they’d toss you into a jail cell, yell at you and release you once a confession was signed.
Today it’s ‘click I agree’ to install this app.
Also much of the videos and content is pure CGI. Fiction. The tech is that good.

Just wear. Your. Freedom Mask. Or for the boomers:

“Sign, sign, everywhere a sign
Blockin’ out the scenery, breakin’ my mind
Do this, don’t do that, can’t you read the sign?
Now, hey you, mister, can’t you read?
You’ve got to have a shirt and tie to get a seat
You can’t even watch, no you can’t eat
You ain’t supposed to be here”

************

Bonus, What’s really going on. The goal is CHAOS. The ‘distancing’ (greatest social and economic weapon ever released, a silent one) is being unleashed on fall school.
Beyond the scope of this blog we are living a mass, a new religion. The illusion of sickness. Wear. Your. Mask. Stand on your mark. Do not ask why. Obey.
Just Do It® (Nike taught us well.)
If you can handle it…this is what we are living:
………
“Chaos magic grew out of the desire to strip away all of these extraneous elements, leaving behind only the techniques for effecting change; hence the emphasis is on actually doing things”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_magic

#189 Bezengy on 08.24.20 at 9:41 am

#143 Ace on Bloor West

What an easy job it will be to double tax revenue in Toronto. Most of these houses like the one below pay a paltry $6000 per year when they should actually be paying double that according to Toronto’s property tax calculator. John Tory should quit asking Ford for more cash and just send in the MPAC team ASAP.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/22224349/293-armadale-ave-toronto-runnymede-bloor-west-village

#190 Penny Henny on 08.24.20 at 9:42 am

Boy oh boy lots of ‘DELETED’s today.
See what coming back to Toronto does to you.

#191 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.24.20 at 9:47 am

Well, I see the fart catchers at the CBC are working overtime to promote Chrystia Freeland immediately after the Conservative Party election….
Nothing like a little hoopla to divert attention away from the Cons.
Pathetic.

Comparing Freeland to Sir Arthur Currie( Vimy Ridge), The Duke Of Wellington( Waterloo), etc etc etc….

My God what an embarrassment the CBC has become.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/chrystia-freeland-may-already-have-plans-to-repair-the-canadian-economy-don-pittis-1.5695558

#192 Penny Henny on 08.24.20 at 9:48 am

It is officially ragweed season in southern Ontario.
All you allergy sufferers better stay home.
You don’t want to be sneezing in public, who knows what might happen to you.

#193 Joe on 08.24.20 at 9:51 am

I took your advice with Gold, but applied it to a different metal – Lead. With gyms in the state that they are, home workout equipment is essentially sold out (or backordered) across most online shopping sites.

I had purchased a significant amount of weights and dumbells in the early 2000s (used) for about 50 cents a pound. I had 1000 pounds, so it cost me $500. Last week I sold it all for $3,300.

While I was still using it, I’m good with bodyweight exercises until the gyms re-open and the marketplace is flooded with plates and dumbells for pennies on the dollar.

#194 The Joke Is On You on 08.24.20 at 9:55 am

Canada is a large country. People are coerced by inscrupulous realturds into paying top dollar for old shitboxes that no has spent a dime on maintenance in decades. Just walk away and rent. Prices always come down. Just walk away and rent.

#195 YouKnowWho on 08.24.20 at 10:02 am

#188 TurnerNation

————

Sebastian Vettel – the 4x Formula 1 World Champion is constantly dogged for not being on social media. He spoke about it recently.

“I’m not big on apps, so I don’t have lots of apps on phone,” he says. “I don’t do social media and also don’t do the social media apps, so I am not following other people.

“I never tried it and I think it’s a good thing because a lot of people tell me they can’t get away from it. I have never tried it so I’m not missing it. I’ve seen how it works with other people roughly and as far as I can tell, it’s done in a way that obviously you’re addicted. So yeah. Not for me.”

“A lot of the stuff is designed to actually steal your time to get you hooked. It annoys me, so I’m not a fan of that. Ultimately there is no solution, there is only yourself, and your behaviour with the tools you have and the funny thing is that a lot of the stuff is designed to make life simpler and give you more time, but it actually does the opposite, it makes it complicated.

“I use the stuff, and I think some of the stuff is great, but sometimes I wish it didn’t exist so there wouldn’t be the temptation. So I think it’s a fine line. It allows us to do a lot of stuff, so generally it’s progressive and happy to go forward – I don’t think we should go back to only pen and paper but I just think as a side effect, it speeds up life in areas where it shouldn’t and that’s not good for us, for the bigger picture, for our stress and our health.”

“Also, these days, the hardware in the iPad or computer changes so often and while I’m very organised in life, with that stuff, I’m not so organised. So I don’t have folders to keep for the next generation of computer/platform, and so a lot of the stuff gets lost. But if I write it down, I’m not going to chuck the notebooks away, I still have notebooks from 2007 and so on. They are useless now, but they are still there. They are all stacked up in a bookshelf.”

“How many times does your phone ring in a day? Almost never. And it’s supposed to be a phone and now it’s doing everything else,” he says. “What I mean is, if it’s an emergency, you get hold of people, but nowadays we treat everything as if it is an emergency, but we actually don’t act the same way about it. People send an email and they want a reply straight away, but it’s not important. Not all the emails are important.”

Vettel is no genius, but clearly a smart cookie. A good student of common sense and calculated. He makes a decision and sticks to it. However, his approach is in the vast minority. What does that say TurnerNation?

When the majority of humanity is weak, lazy and addicted to screens, how easy are we to pick off for a little virus?

I mentioned this again – but Wall-E – how spot on was that movie about humanity? See for yourself. This was 2008. I think we’ve arrived to this Wall-E reality, right? When obesity owns the population, and diabetes annual growth is in line with Garth’s annual portfolio returns…well, welcome to tomorrow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-kdRdzxdZQ

#196 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.20 at 10:20 am

RE: #150 Boomer Bill on 08.23.20 at 10:16 pm

#143 Ace Goodheart

I hear yah Ace. A home sold off Bloor and Islington, decrepit bungalow for $1.35 million. 1.5% rates are wreaking havoc. Boomers selling out and moving to the hinterland are winning the lottery.

//////////////////////////////////////////

It’s nuts. I think what has happened is you have two things working here:

1. People want out of their condos. At any cost apparently. Everyone wants a house now.

2. Low interest rates have made it possible for people to pay more for houses. So you now have this “Grey area” of price appreciation, where people are realizing they can borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars more than they used to be able to.

The result is that when you price a house in a leafy Toronto neighbourhood, and you figure you know what the market price is, you are figuring wrong.

The market does not appear to have a “top” right now. I looked at the rate hub site and you can get a 5 year mortgage for a little over 1.5%. Every week, the interest rate goes down.

So people are finding that their “hard price ceilings” are disappearing, and they can borrow way more than they thought they could.

The result: Ridiculous price appreciation in Toronto SFH neighbourhoods.

By the end of the summer, if this continues, every single house on our street will be worth north of $2,000,000.00

That is two million Canadian dollars, for small, post WW1 houses, all built around 1926 or so, with three bedrooms, either one or two bathrooms, a main floor layout that involves small, cramped rooms with a “bearing wall” running down the middle (if you want to remove the wall, you need a structural engineer, as the wall holds up the house).

Most of these houses have partially or fully unfinished basements.

These are not two million dollar houses.

This is just nuts. I have never seen this before. 2017’s price appreciation had limits. This does not seem to. Unbelievable what people will do, when you take off the cap on their ability to borrow money.

#197 Captain Uppa on 08.24.20 at 10:26 am

#196 Ace Goodheart

“That is two million Canadian dollars, for small, post WW1 houses, all built around 1926 or so, with three bedrooms, either one or two bathrooms, a main floor layout that involves small, cramped rooms with a “bearing wall” running down the middle (if you want to remove the wall, you need a structural engineer, as the wall holds up the house).”
————————————–

Those homes are often built much stronger than the new homes today.

#198 Prairieboy43 on 08.24.20 at 11:03 am

O’Toole need some flashy “Blonde”, hair piece. I suggest the Fabio look.

#199 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.20 at 11:09 am

RE: #189 Bezengy on 08.24.20 at 9:41 am

#143 Ace on Bloor West

What an easy job it will be to double tax revenue in Toronto. Most of these houses like the one below pay a paltry $6000 per year when they should actually be paying double that according to Toronto’s property tax calculator. John Tory should quit asking Ford for more cash and just send in the MPAC team ASAP.

/////////////////////////////////////////

Low interest rates have skewed the fundamentals.

There is no way that people buying these houses, will ever own them. They will always have a mortgage.

They are going to have to re-think the way they tax property in Ontario. Maybe levy the tax on the equity in the house rather than on the MPAC value.

Interest rates are allowing people to purchase houses using basically mostly borrowed money, that they will never be able to repay.

You have people with after tax incomes of less than 100K carrying million, five hundred thousand dollar + mortgages. If they pay, say, 25K per year in principal payments (that is being very generous, most pay less than that per year on the principal outstanding) it will take them 60 years to pay for these houses.

They will all be dead by then. These people are in their 40s and 50s mostly. People just don’t live that long.

#200 Steerage on 08.24.20 at 11:26 am

The cons decided to go after the gen Z vote……

#201 Ronaldo on 08.24.20 at 11:32 am

#152 Al on 08.23.20 at 10:24 pm
Trump will have to taken out of the White House in handcuffs as he will refuse to concede defeat and leave.
——————————————————————
Too much CNN maybe?

#202 Ronaldo on 08.24.20 at 11:42 am

#171 Do we have all the facts on 08.24.20 at 8:16 am

Very well said. Can’t agree more.

#203 Ronaldo on 08.24.20 at 11:53 am

#180 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.24.20 at 8:43 am
@#143 Ace
“This is absolutely nuts. I have not seen this in my lifetime. The price appreciation is just spectacular.”

++++

Now ….does that sound like a balloon that is about to burst?

Here comes Fall…….
—————————————————————-
That bubble must be made of pretty thick material. We’ve been waiting for this bubble to burst for a very long time now. Maybe the pin needs sharpening.

#204 Figures dont lie, but liars do figure on 08.24.20 at 11:57 am

Lockdown was justified by death projections
WHO changed the definition of pandemic: previously said large number of deaths, presently no death requirements
WHO denied the change, but the wayback machine proves they are lying
Now the job is counting: take any region’s total # of deaths from ALL CAUSES in March 2020, compare it to March 2019, adjust for population changes, look for significant change.

#205 Lone Star on 08.24.20 at 12:11 pm

I’m not sure we can draw conclusions, because we don’t know who the buyers are. Perhaps all these purchases in the boonies are being made using city homes as leverage and collateral. In which case, prices in the boonies are driven up for as long as rates stay low and/or at least the next five years until mortgage renewal. If the owners decide to go back to the city, they offload the property for a surplus (because by then the economy will be back, the GDP will be higher and increased immigration will be supporting sales)?

The banks must be banking on that scenario, and as long as the same one is playing out in the States, it can probably be supported: https://thehill.com/policy/finance/513096-home-sales-rise-25-percent-in-july-as-housing-market-booms-amid-pandemic.

That said, there is a huge element of risk involved. I suppose how long we print depends mostly on what our neighbours (or should I say neighbors) are doing?

#206 Penny Henny on 08.24.20 at 12:20 pm

…and we all know old people are less valuable. Good logic. – Garth
///////////////

I think the point being made was that we should have had less lockdown and do a better job of protecting those who were vulnerable

#207 Tater on 08.24.20 at 12:24 pm

#15 SoggyShorts on 08.23.20 at 11:53 am
What do Turner investments & blog Dogs think about rebalancing on a schedule vs range?

I’ve usually been able to keep things in line using my deposits, but retirement is looming around the corner and I’m considering a 5% rule instead of annual/quarterly rebalancing.

E.G.
A PF that is 80/20 would rebalance only when it gets to 85/15 or 75/25 rather than say every Dec 31.

Meanwhile, smaller adjustments would happen monthly as withdrawals would come from the upside, and that would also be the frequency of “checks” for whether a rebalance is in order.
—————————————————————

In theory the % rule should allow you to capture more volatility. In practice, since 2003 it likely wouldn’t have made a difference. I looked at an 80/20 SPY and TLT as a proxy, band based re-balance had a CAGR of 9.9% from 2003 and annual re-balance was at 10.04%

You can load your ETFs in this tool and see how it worked out historically: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation

#208 SeeB on 08.24.20 at 12:25 pm

#128 CEW9 on 08.23.20 at 8:19 pm

People on one side of the political spectrum are not really different than people on the other side… there will always be “emotional” voters and “rational” voters on both sides.

I just wish everyone wasn’t so darn sure their opinions were the absolute and final truth on everything. All of us make mistakes, all of us have biased opinions, and every. single. one of us has been, and is, wrong about something.

A little humility would sure make this country run a lot better.

________________________________________

Great post. We are literally have a political and social system held hostage by anti-vaxxers, flat-earthers, bullion-lickers, climate-deniers, opinioners-as-soothesayers, evidence-ignorers, hyper-partisans, etc…

So many people so sure they are absolutely correct without a doubt, and remain diametrically opposed to every bit of evidence to the contrary of their beliefs.

The real fun ones are those who style themselves as “free-thinkers” yet get all their information from a couple of youtube channels hawking health products and other snake-oil. Say ANYTHING to question their beliefs, and you get bombarded with aggressive waves of denial, whattaboutism, strawmanning and ad-hominem.

Thanks Zuck et al.

#209 Tater on 08.24.20 at 12:28 pm

Whoops, last post had the wrong link, you want the etf version: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

#210 Looking up on 08.24.20 at 1:01 pm

#199 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.20 at 11:09 am

Low interest rates have skewed the fundamentals.

There is no way that people buying these houses, will ever own them. They will always have a mortgage.

They are going to have to re-think the way they tax property in Ontario. Maybe levy the tax on the equity in the house rather than on the MPAC value.

Interest rates are allowing people to purchase houses using basically mostly borrowed money, that they will never be able to repay.

You have people with after tax incomes of less than 100K carrying million, five hundred thousand dollar + mortgages. If they pay, say, 25K per year in principal payments (that is being very generous, most pay less than that per year on the principal outstanding) it will take them 60 years to pay for these houses.

They will all be dead by then. These people are in their 40s and 50s mostly. People just don’t live that long.

————————-

I believe you’re absolutely right Ace. This isn’t Chinese money or big investor money, this is us (Canadians) A wild speculative irrational frenzy.

The funny thing is that you could have gotten a 2.8 percent mortgage 8 months ago. So a 2 percent mortgage that you can get now makes you lose all sense of reality?
Even some comments from economists are hilarious. “People couldn’t go on holidays because of Covid so they used that money to buy a house instead”
Yeah ok you saved 5000 dollars from your trip so you decided to buy a 1.5 million dollar house with it. Other stupid, ridiculous rationalizations abound.

#211 Don Guillermo on 08.24.20 at 1:20 pm

#156 Millennial Realist on 08.23.20 at 11:13 pm
A revealing evening. Soon to be morning.

Consider how the Conservatives utterly bungled tonight’s once in a decade opportunity to promote themselves. And if the race is close, a total disaster lies ahead.

*******************************************
Quote from Kelly McParland

“It wasn’t the Conservatives fault that COVID-19 forced a reconfigured and much-delayed virtual replacement race be whipped up out of nowhere, but perhaps its decision to resort to snail mail and taped-up ballots says something about the difference between Tories and their chief rivals. In the same situation, Liberals would have borrowed a billion dollars, phoned up the Kielburgers and asked them to invent a new means of counting ballots, operated by paid “volunteers.”

Pretty much sums it up. Disaster? Trudeau’s Liberals creating disaster after disaster since 2015.

#212 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.20 at 1:24 pm

RE: #206 Penny Henny on 08.24.20 at 12:20 pm

…and we all know old people are less valuable. Good logic. – Garth
///////////////

I think the point being made was that we should have had less lockdown and do a better job of protecting those who were vulnerable

//////////////////////////////////////

There is a lot to be said for this, in Canada.

In Ontario, more than 1/2 of the COVID deaths were from people residing in long term care homes.

While we locked down society, we seem to have forgotten about the LTCH population.

We had healthy, young folks sitting at home, while in the long term care homes, COVID ravaged unchecked.

Someone forgot that in Ontario, most of our old folks live in facilities where they share things like kitchens, hallways, elevators, where one support staff member circulates throughout the building, having contact with every senior citizen in the facility.

It is dangerous to one’s health right now to question the logic of the “lock downs” as people get very upset when you do that.

The argument is usually “but what if that healthy young person goes home and infects their grandmother (who lives at at LTCH)?” What then?

It seems we forgot that the close living quarters, virus infection vectors and the arrangement of our LTCHs in Ontario meant that, even if we did lock down, all it would take to infect an entire population of seniors, would be one slip up. One person. One delivery of one item. And the whole residence ends up sick.

More attention should probably have been paid to that, and less to locking down everyone and closing everything.

#213 Barb on 08.24.20 at 1:24 pm

I was neither “79 Barb” nor deleted!

#214 Bill on 08.24.20 at 2:02 pm

#188 TurnerNation on 08.24.20 at 9:27 am
#122 BillyBob nailed the topic I’d planned to write.
——————————-
Well put on both sides.
Yes I said the tube and all the SM is absolute crap. Guaranteed to keep you poor and dumbed down. Its working as planned.
Most are up to their butt in debt…its the marketing.
People that hate Trump are clueless to the trends and events.occurring globally. Its not about Trump…..get a clue….
OH Its ok T2 will keep giving free bees…No money no problem.

#215 Tater on 08.24.20 at 2:06 pm

#199 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.20 at 11:09 am

Low interest rates have skewed the fundamentals.

There is no way that people buying these houses, will ever own them. They will always have a mortgage.

They are going to have to re-think the way they tax property in Ontario. Maybe levy the tax on the equity in the house rather than on the MPAC value.

Interest rates are allowing people to purchase houses using basically mostly borrowed money, that they will never be able to repay.

You have people with after tax incomes of less than 100K carrying million, five hundred thousand dollar + mortgages. If they pay, say, 25K per year in principal payments (that is being very generous, most pay less than that per year on the principal outstanding) it will take them 60 years to pay for these houses.

They will all be dead by then. These people are in their 40s and 50s mostly. People just don’t live that long.

—————————————————————-

No, there aren’t people out there with 200k incomes getting 1.5mio mortgages. That’s the whole idea of the stress test. Making people qualify for a mortgage at 4.8% even if their actual rate is 1.5%.

As for the idea that they will never pay them off, or that they are only paying down 25k per year in principle, that’s just not true. On a 25 year amortization, at 2.5%, you pay off 44k of principal in the first year. And that’s the lowest amount you’ll ever pay off in a year!

I get that this market is weird and incredibly frothy, but a combo of FOMO and large amounts of equity gains on existing homes is driving this, not people getting 7 or 8 times their income in mortgages.

#216 TurnerNation on 08.24.20 at 2:10 pm

#102 Nonplused that’s it. Adults won’t be much affected. The odd Costco trip. WFH is fine.
Note the Bay Street traders have returned I have been told on several accounts from people I know. (But The 54th, who knows. )

Children…are being punished in the New System. Gotta get them young.
From the get go I called it out as being a very sinister global plan. Maybe we’ll get it once our assets become confiscated via taxation or whatever
The good news is I went by a very large mid-town park in Toronto and the playgrounds and basketball courts were full of youngsters having fun.
Is the long game pushing kids in front of a screen for learning/programming? And our e global rulers are playing a very long game. Incrementalism. One punishing step at a time.

#217 Bdwy on 08.24.20 at 2:19 pm

Off topic post here but as this is secondarily a canine blog (take a hike Felix) with many experienced hound handmaids maybe somone can help.

im having a big problem with an otherwise perfect 4 yo border collie . Smart and obedient like you have never seen, maybe too smart. (Day one at 8 weeks old she came with perfect recall and rarely needs a command as she seems to mostly read my mind and responds instantly) She is thinking herself into a state of fear all the time. No bad behavious just fear, panting , coming close for cuddles(normally she hates.cuddles).

A couple years ago a bad exp with haloween fireworks and since then is fearful of loud bangs, but now she hears things a mile away ,almost imperceptible , and gets scared. Weekends and vacations are at a remote ,mostly silent, wilderness location, she is getting it there too, in fact i think its getting worse.

Go for a walk? All is forgotten. Get home and sit still? The panic is back fast. Fine w people dogs cars etc. Loud music or chainsaw etc no prob. When it’s quiet enough to hear things in the distance is the problem.

Vet here gave usless natural remedies. Did zip. Tried cbd , did zip. Vet in mexixo gave us horse tranquilizers, they worked but she was near comatose. One hallween a friend had some atavan it worked too but knocked her out also.

Has gotten to the point where it’s almost constant unless she is otherwise occupied. Need help, any ideas blogdogs???

#218 Felix on 08.24.20 at 2:42 pm

DELETED

#219 Bill on 08.24.20 at 2:45 pm

Lets get kids back to school. Its critical….
Like I said the numbers are highly skewed…..
HQC is 65 years old made from bark…..originally.

https://banned.video/watch?id=5f400edfdf77c4044ef0973f

#220 Sail Away on 08.24.20 at 3:56 pm

SUSPENDED

#221 Bill on 08.24.20 at 4:12 pm

On the political gong show…
Ill take Max…no wonder you bailed Garth….that gog is rat infested.
I personally believe Max is trying do do right.
You wouldnt know it but its the fastest growing party compaired to Greens NDP in their inception..
People are fed up with lies and outright theft…

Bernier is unelectable. – Garth

#222 Tony on 08.24.20 at 5:05 pm

Re: #12 TRUMP2020 on 08.23.20 at 11:37 am

This guy has never been wrong yet and for the sake of humanity I pray he’s right this November.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mp_Uuz9k7Os

#223 condopoor on 08.25.20 at 2:12 pm

In crisis there’s always opportunity. Some significant ones are coming.

Super interested to hear your thoughts around this subject, Garth.