Pay up

Will all those who’ve made no mortgage payments since the spring get a further holiday?

Big debate happening, and it seems the answer increasingly is… no. Sorry.

The bug ain’t leaving anytime soon. Lots of big employers are keeping workers remote until 2021. That includes all the banks. Travel restrictions remain. Tourism, pro sports, conventions, concerts, normal airline operations – all kaput. One in five small business are teetering. Unemployment last month was still almost 11% nationally. More in Toronto and Vancouver, where the jobless rate is 11.6%.

Things will get better. Next year should be robust (Mr. Market thinks so). But between now and then the largesse has to stop. Lenders have gone without payments on $180 billion in residential mortgages, as well as billions more in personal loans and credit card debt.

The mortgage industry is fretting about this situation, in which almost 800,000 families opted to stop forking over their monthlies – 16% of all those with a home loan. Come next month and October, say  the Mortgage Professionals of Canada, “The general expectation is that these families will be forced to sell their homes, and that this influx of housing inventory to the market will create price softening as more housing options are made available to buyers.”

That’s what CMHC boss, the evil Evan Siddall, called the ‘deferral cliff.’ Because of that (and the ongoing virus) the federal agency has suggested the current housing boom will end, and prices could fall by 20%. As you know, that would carve $300,000 off the price of a slanty semi in Toronto or a moldy Vancouver Special.

The mortgage guys are asking the feds to sanction another six months of no payments, until jobs start reappearing and Covid is chased away by a vaccine. Other jurisdictions have done this – notably the UK and Australia – where the holiday has ben extended by an average of four months – but only when borrowers can prove financial hardship (which is never a good idea to tell your lender).

So far CMHC says no way. This is what it told credit unions a few weeks ago: “At this time, there are no plans to extend the deferral period.” In fact Siddall’s guys have come up with a ‘Default Management Playbook’ which lists various options open to lenders as they deal with homeowners who obviously can’t afford the real estate that they bought. “Further extensions,” CHMC says, “are not a viable option on a global basis.”

Private insurer Genworth says it’s expecting most of its no-pay, deferral clients to resume their obligations by next month. Homeowners who are still jobless and truly cannot pay may go into default. “As a result, the Company and its lenders have plans in place to increase loss mitigation activities to address the increase in reported delinquencies that is expected starting in the fourth quarter of this year.”

Those measures will include working with troubled homeowners individually to sort out a new payment scheme, possibly giving four more months of deferrals before the hammer comes down. Meanwhile the credit unions – also huge lenders for residential real estate, many of whom with staggering exposure to it – are floating the idea of increasing the amortization period of home loans by the number of months that payments were abandoned.

That would keep the monthly from being increased to make up the missed amounts, but that money would be capitalized – added to the principal outstanding, then spread over the extended amortization period. The result: more interest payable. More money owing at renewal period. More years to pay off the outstanding debt.

In short, there is now zero indication (unlike a few weeks ago) that blanket deferrals will be extended. Everybody is expected to start ponying up their payments in the next six or eight weeks. What you missed handing over you will still owe. Some lenders will increase monthly payments. Some will capitalize them. Some may extend the am. Some won’t.

And, yes, some people who should never have bought their properties will be forced to list and sell. How many of the 800,000 will that be? If it were 10%, the market would be flooded with listings and prices materially affected. If it’s 1%, meh, no biggie.

Some deferrers will have a harder time renewing their loans. Some will face an interest rate premium when they do so. This is uncharted territory since never before in our lifetimes have we faced a global pandemic, nor had a society so indebted, so exposed, and with so much of their net worth in a single, leveraged asset.

Will we learn a lesson?

Nah. Not a chance.

About the picture: From John in BC. “On a bench in Minoru Park, Richmond.” All dogs go to heaven.

180 comments ↓

#1 Bob Dog on 08.20.20 at 1:33 pm

This really brightened my day. Housing speculators learning that investing has risk.

GTA landlords struggle to evict man from 11 luxury homes he’s rented out as rooming houses

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/gta-landlords-struggle-to-evict-man-from-11-luxury-homes-he-s-rented-out-as-rooming-houses-1.5692637

Got go collect my CERB. I have no intentions of looking for work until I see a return of affordable housing. Back to work losers and remember that even voting for comrades Horgon will not help you. You will never own a home or raise a family. You were simply born too late.

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.20 at 1:55 pm

I know a 350 billion deficit is nothing to sneeze at and will inflict pain in the future for Canadians, big and small.
However, the situation down south does not look very rosy either.
The hospitals there are projecting combined losses of US 321 billion. That’s more than 400 billion loonies.
Hospital fees will go up substantially.
You still wanna move there?

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/12-hospitals-laying-off-workers-in-response-to-covid-19.html

#3 Looking up on 08.20.20 at 2:08 pm

In a June 15, 2020 statement, Rbc Economist Robert Hogue indicated that benchmark prices of homes in Canada are forecast to fall seven percent by the middle of 2021.

The day after the July sales report showing the highest number of homes sold in a month Robert Hogue did a 180.

“We see little that can stop the appreciation in property values near term,” RBC economist Robert Hogue wrote in a market update.“

Talk about recency biased analysis lol.

#4 Calgarian on 08.20.20 at 2:13 pm

I read this pathetic blog on and off for 10 years now. I see that predictions are the same, so are the results of the housing market. Greatest fools who believe this blog keep renting and house prices keep going up. Interestingly, still there are predictions of 20% price drop, which has not happened until now and does not look like will happen anytime soon. Meanwhile, believers of this blog have lost opportunity to build equity of hundreds of thousands of dollars at the very least. Keep believing greatest fools.

#5 Cheese on 08.20.20 at 2:20 pm

“You will never own a home or raise a family. You were simply born too late.”

I know that feel, and it hurts.

#6 yvr_lurker on 08.20.20 at 2:25 pm

“will we learn a lesson? Nah, not a chance”

————–
Indeed many people were at the razor’s edge of what they could afford, and did not plan for a pandemic which effectively derails entire industries.

However, will the G7 learn a lesson from this virus? Will we modify our view and introduce some social distancing from China and their live animal markets? Or will we just return to “normal”, putting in 100 overseas flights a day, and be sitting ducks for the next pandemic originating from China that has the death rate of SARS coupled to the infection rate of Covid19. Hopefully, the G7 countries will view the potential for this as very high and take some clear and bold steps to mitigate this. Can’t shut the world economy down every 5 years when the next virus emerges.

#7 Northshore guy on 08.20.20 at 2:29 pm

Wow I will be proven wrong if they don’t extend deferrals. Can’t be happier, they really need to even the playing field between buyers and sellers.
So brokers are making fun of Evan for sending out that letter last week to 100 lenders and then they have the audacity to beg him for extending the deferrals?
I hope Evan exposes the dark underbelly of this industry. They have had it good for too long

#8 Mattl on 08.20.20 at 2:30 pm

I’m of the belief that a large percentage of the deferrals are not required. I mean you can’t find a boat or RV out here, other toys are selling like hotcakes. Discretionary spending is UP.

So ya, they need to go back to no deferrals and let the Banks deal with it the way they always have. They can restructure, deffer, do whatever they need to do to mitigate losses.

#9 Don Guillermo on 08.20.20 at 2:45 pm

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.20 at 1:55 pm
I know a 350 billion deficit is nothing to sneeze at and will inflict pain in the future for Canadians, big and small.
However, the situation down south does not look very rosy either.
The hospitals there are projecting combined losses of US 321 billion. That’s more than 400 billion loonies.
Hospital fees will go up substantially.
You still wanna move there?

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/12-hospitals-laying-off-workers-in-response-to-covid-19.html
***************************************
Canada went into GFC with the strongest economic position of the G8 and came out the strongest. This time went in the weakest and are coming out the weakest. Why don’t we use that as our benchmark instead of always pointing at the orange man?

#10 Dave on 08.20.20 at 2:54 pm

Thank God, real estate prices have made life toooo hard on everyone.

#11 not 1st on 08.20.20 at 2:59 pm

EI fund drained again….

Was previously drained in the late 90s to pay down our out of control deficit. Now its just drained to pay people to not work, smoke dope and vote Justin forever.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/feds-to-replace-cerb-with-new-benefit-simplified-ei-program-1.1482686

#12 Dolce Vita on 08.20.20 at 3:02 pm

John in BC’s bench in Minoru Park, Richmond in good company.

Peggy Guggenheim a dog lover. List of her beloved dogs from Cappucino (1949) to Cellida (1979):

https://i.imgur.com/HrZgCO3.jpg

She is buried to the left of her dogs, humble grave at the Guggenheim Collection, Venezia.

Find the above in the courtyard (the Henry Moore mini blob on a pedestal will be to your back) look towards the coffee/souvenirs shop (to the left) and on your right a brick wall, walk around it to observe the above.

Travel Tip:

On the day of Regata Storica (Sept. 6, after Carnevale the next most important event to Veneziani, more than the Film Festival), buy a ticket at the Guggenheim and go to the terrazzo which is right on the Canal Grande and have a front row seat of the Regata, and of course see the Collection. Ticket info:

https://www.guggenheim-venice.it/en/visit/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwvvj5BRDkARIsAGD9vlLgyRyDa0Qvz3NYwFgbbF5f7PUN87MAdPIG93xIUzlR5tz1NkQaUEgaAlrLEALw_wcB

Will go again this year to see the Collection and the Regatta Storica, well worth it for a day (and the headstones)…well, if Mr. Virus doesn’t smite me or Venezia in the meantime (hopefully they will not cancel the Regata Storica).

#13 Dolce Vita on 08.20.20 at 3:09 pm

RE in Canada is an addiction/obsession, a way to easy street as most Cdns. see it as a “safe” investment.

You will not change their minds Garth with your logic and advice that turned out to be correct.

It will take a depression* and/or a mass cull* of the population before Cdns. treat RE like most other countries, where it’s a home and no more (e.g., Italia).

*2nd Wave.

#14 Bill on 08.20.20 at 3:22 pm

Kanada
What drove RE for years?
1) One of the safest countries in the world.
2) Most stable banking system.
3) Never ending decline in int rates (fuel to the fire was prior
crisis gotta keep buying bonds or POOF!)
4) Inflationary policy from your Gov.
5) Awesome place to launder your money…
6) Free Bees from gov for peeps that have never earned it.

How many more Garth?

#15 Bill on 08.20.20 at 3:28 pm

People Never learn read this book written in 1841….same old.
Follow the sheeple to be slaughterer….

https://www.ebay.ca/i/254645532361?chn=ps&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=706-89093-2056-0&mkcid=2&itemid=254645532361&targetid=883392539456&device=c&mktype=pla&googleloc=9001586&poi=&campaignid=9567696874&mkgroupid=96320244177&rlsatarget=pla-883392539456&abcId=1140226&merchantid=116370242&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIsoXyqruq6wIVrx6tBh098wwGEAQYAyABEgJgwPD_BwE

#16 JB CONDO DEATH on 08.20.20 at 3:36 pm

#9 Don Guillermo on 08.20.20 at 2:45 pm

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.20 at 1:55 pm
I know a 350 billion deficit is nothing to sneeze at and will inflict pain in the future for Canadians, big and small.
However, the situation down south does not look very rosy either.
The hospitals there are projecting combined losses of US 321 billion. That’s more than 400 billion loonies.
Hospital fees will go up substantially.
You still wanna move there?

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/12-hospitals-laying-off-workers-in-response-to-covid-19.html
***************************************
Canada went into GFC with the strongest economic position of the G8 and came out the strongest. This time went in the weakest and are coming out the weakest. Why don’t we use that as our benchmark instead of always pointing at the orange man?
…………………………………………………………….
Not the Orange Babys fault it is clearly on the shoulders of Mr Socks AKA JT, T2, Justin baby.

#17 Reade on 08.20.20 at 3:41 pm

Garth love the blog (MSU). I see cottage market is exploding right now. Wouldn’t you think this market would be the first to crash? I am assuming they aren’t being purchased for cash. What r your thoughts?

#18 DM in C on 08.20.20 at 3:42 pm

We lowballed a place in NW YYC this week — been sitting unloved for two months, nary an offer. They accepted. Bird in the hand and all that.

We got it for $30k off list and under assessment. Checked all the boxes. Just waiting for inspection.

Locking in mortgage at 1.73% Crazy low.

#19 Better off homeless than a homeowner on 08.20.20 at 3:42 pm

Wouldn’t we start seeing a flood of listings right now if there was a deferral cliff?

#20 looking up on 08.20.20 at 3:46 pm

#13 Dolce Vita on 08.20.20 at 3:09 pm
RE in Canada is an addiction/obsession, a way to easy street as most Cdns. see it as a “safe” investment.

You will not change their minds Garth with your logic and advice that turned out to be correct.

It will take a depression* and/or a mass cull* of the population before Cdns. treat RE like most other countries, where it’s a home and no more (e.g., Italia).

*2nd Wave.

———————————-

Not to sound disrespectful to you or Garth but how did “not buying real estate ” advice turn out to be correct?

Everybody who bought and held Canadian real estate for the last 20 years did phenomenal.

Not sure what you’re trying to say.

#21 SNOOP DOG on 08.20.20 at 3:47 pm

well looks l am going R.E. SHOPPING this fall.

Putting $$$$ to work.

#22 cto on 08.20.20 at 3:48 pm

Garth
Very important question…
Siddal seems to be resolute…good man,…
but is it just him and CMHC or is there some other federal bimbo with a bleeding heart for the realtors and debt pushers who can over rule him and force an extension of deferrals?

#23 Ballingsford on 08.20.20 at 3:54 pm

I don’t see real estate coming down soon, even if 8,000 – 80,000 lose their homes after the deferrals. That’s nationally and the mortgage interest rates will be low for a while. Also, with rent getting so expensive it would make sense to buy in some instances.

#24 Thomas on 08.20.20 at 3:54 pm

TBH, I rather T2 goes all in to extend the deferral up to as long as he wants, so I can finally make up my mind to quit this country once and for all.

#25 willworkforpickles on 08.20.20 at 3:56 pm

The number according to CMHC is 20% or 160,000 mortgages estimated likely to default.
If government drips stays out of it and just let the RE market correct as it should, the recovery will come sooner rather than later or not at all and the rebound will be much stronger.

#26 Honest Realtor on 08.20.20 at 3:57 pm

You are correct Garth, that we certainly live in “interesting” times. But I respectfully must disagree with the negative outcomes you suggest, for these times are interesting in ways that will be very beneficial to investors.

There will soon be a large, ongoing influx of immigrant refugees to Canada, which will burst through previous low levels of newcomers. This will put sustained upward pressure on housing prices for decades.

“Canada will need newcomers after coronavirus pandemic, immigration minister says”

https://globalnews.ca/news/6949767/immigration-coronavirus-canada/

And just as exciting, Airbnb is coming back! This will be seen as preferable to hotels for many years as we get back to normal. More property investors will be happy to buy in order to rent out than you might have thought a few months ago.

Airbnb is already recovering from Covid, and now is about to list an IPO!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/airbnb-files-for-initial-public-offering-11597870063

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53844712

Valuation for the company ranges from $18-50 Billion already. Likely a huge opportunity ahead for investors.

Real estate will now likely have a short term plateau, and then an amazing decade ahead. Most Canadian property investors will at least triple their money by 2030.

Because I believe in a balanced approach, I am advising my clients now to scout out and grab good properties this year, and also to keep their eyes on Airbnb and have a large pool of capital to invest in the stock when available.

Another very big real estate Win-Win is ahead, for those who can see through all the distractions.

Realtor diversification = buy an Airbnb property and invest in Airbnb stock. – Garth

#27 Don Guillermo on 08.20.20 at 4:08 pm

#16 JB CONDO DEATH on 08.20.20 at 3:36 pm
#9 Don Guillermo on 08.20.20 at 2:45 pm

Canada went into GFC with the strongest economic position of the G8 and came out the strongest. This time went in the weakest and are coming out the weakest. Why don’t we use that as our benchmark instead of always pointing at the orange man?
…………………………………………………………….
Not the Orange Babys fault it is clearly on the shoulders of Mr Socks AKA JT, T2, Justin baby

****************************************
Exactamente! T2 pays CBC and friends plenty of cash to obsess over the orange man so we don’t have to.

#28 WTF on 08.20.20 at 4:14 pm

#4 Calgarian

So please, tell us how the Calgary RE market is doing these days, you know, compared to10 yrs ago?

Im guessing you aren’t a member of Mensa?

#29 FreeBird on 08.20.20 at 4:16 pm

Canadian rent report:

“Overall, 7 cities were on an upward trajectory last month, 7 downward, and 10 remained flat. While the 2 priciest cities in Canada experienced another month of declining prices…”

https://blog.padmapper.com/2020/08/13/august-2020-canadian-rent-report/

Search by city:
https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report

#30 Montana Bob on 08.20.20 at 4:17 pm

So, let’s put together everything:
1. Deferrals for (maybe) 4 more months.
2. Extension of amortization.
3. Extension of EI benefits.
4. Lowering interest rate, again.
All of the above cannot help too much people who are into large debt, lost the job and found another one, less paid (or did not find new job).
Another thing, a lot of people are doing fast renovations, basements and “improvements” on houses and apartments, because they want to put them up on sale. Obviously, they want to cash out and get rid of illiquid real estate, as they are getting ready for a long deflating of bubble.
Even if many of people are not forced to sell their houses, they will be stuck in them for a very long period of time.
So, sit back and relax. Time will tell.

#31 willworkforpickles on 08.20.20 at 4:20 pm

#17 “Garth love the blog (MSU). I see cottage market is exploding right now. Wouldn’t you think this market would be the first to crash? I am assuming they aren’t being purchased for cash. What r your thoughts?”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Seems the pandemic has forced many into premature unexpected early retirement…so what to do with all that spare time come unexpectedly in life?
Buy a cottage. With the pandemic a wave of buyers came all at once.
The buying won’t last and will taper off.

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 4:23 pm

@#4 CowTown Air
“Meanwhile, believers of this blog have lost opportunity to build equity of hundreds of thousands of dollars at the very least.”
+++
Lost?
Hardly.
I’ve gained hundreds of thousands in 10 years.
Enjoy the tax freedom of house sales while you still can.
Trudeau will soon be clamping down.
Viva Liberals Viva Venezuela!

#33 mike from mtl on 08.20.20 at 4:24 pm

#26 Honest Realtor on 08.20.20 at 3:57 pm

..And just as exciting, Airbnb is coming back! This will be seen as preferable to hotels for many years as we get back to normal.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Hope you’re being sarcastic, Airbnb is a menace even before all this, literally sharing the sheets with cheap wad travellers trying to save 50$ a night. Especially now I’d never consider a wannabe Hotelier of unknown cleaning regimen over a pro. Yes the pros can have issues too but I have recourse and options.

The wild west of Airbnb for cheap travel accommodation, condo specuvesting, concerts, sports, festivals and the like are done. Unless that changes fast they’re in deep trouble like the rest of the unfortunate tourism industry.

#34 willworkforpickles on 08.20.20 at 4:29 pm

#26 Honest Realtor

Don’t expect that wave of immigrants to come until mass unemployment and the economy issues are fixed.
2 to 3 years out.

#35 Prince Polo on 08.20.20 at 4:34 pm

Depression Week continues on Greaterfool. Will it be “Sunny Ways” from here on in, Sir Garth? I need something positive for the weekend! Thanks for all you do on this pathetic blog.

#36 Millennial 1%er on 08.20.20 at 4:39 pm

I can only get so excited. My optimism isn’t for the housing market to crash, but rather a larger inventory such that I won’t have to enter a bidding war with overleveraged dummies who are invoking the bank of mom & dad.

Maybe my Canadian Dream isn’t so far away, and I won’t have to go to the boonies and live near #COTTAGERS_STAY_THE_HELL_AWAY to be able to own some land.

#25 willworkforpickles on 08.20.20 at 3:56 pm
>If government drips stays out of it and just let the RE market correct as it should

That’s optimistic.

>The number according to CMHC is 20% or 160,000 mortgages estimated likely to default.

Could I get a source on the “20% likely to default figure”?

#37 Damifino on 08.20.20 at 4:40 pm

#20 looking

…how did “not buying real estate ” advice turn out to be correct? Everybody who bought and held Canadian real estate for the last 20 years did phenomenal.
——————————–

I admit, it happened for me. But not until I finally sold my RE properties (all two of them) and diversified.

Nothing is ‘made’ until selling. Before that, you pay large carrying costs and take unnecessary risk. Why?

If you’d put all your money into a single stock and it quadrupled in 6 years would you hang on to it or take profit and crystallize your exceptionally good fortune.

A rational person would thank their lucky stars and snatch that money right off the table. Why should a house be treated differently? Because one lives within?

It’s entirely possible to be a diversified investor right from the get-go with real estate (perhaps in the form of REIT’s) as just one of a dozen market sectors you should be exposed to. The wealthy understand this. It’s how they get that way. It’s why they stay that way.

#38 Bob in Hamilton on 08.20.20 at 4:41 pm

#24 Thomas on 08.20.20 at 3:54 pm
TBH, I rather T2 goes all in to extend the deferral up to as long as he wants, so I can finally make up my mind to quit this country once and for all.

Yes….but where do you go in this crazy world? So far, Canada has been a relatively quiet and safe place to live. Agreed that the country we grew up in is long gone but the choices out there are very limited….even if you do have a few bucks.

#39 SoggyShorts on 08.20.20 at 4:41 pm

#4 Calgarian on 08.20.20 at 2:13 pm

I read this pathetic blog on and off for 10 years now. I see that predictions are the same, so are the results of the housing market. Greatest fools who believe this blog keep renting and house prices keep going up.

***********************
You’re saying this from Calgary? Where prices have gone up an average of zero the last decade?

#40 baloney Sandwitch on 08.20.20 at 4:47 pm

I frankly cannot understand the logic of buying a rental property when you can buy REITs for 50 cents on the dollar and let the professionals take care of all the hassles of collecting the rent and unplugging the toilet. For example H&R Reit, one of the biggest reit in canada is going for 7% cap rate, 6.5% dividend and is 50% of tangible book value.

#41 Dolce Vita on 08.20.20 at 4:51 pm

#20 looking up

Chart for Toronto RE Avg. Home Price corrected for inflation, $ 2018:

https://i.imgur.com/dux4775.png

Stopped in 2019 as prices started to arrest then down. Numbers from RE Board. Financial returns below table by me, easily calculable (with projections using Trendline analysis).

1969 to 2018 Avg. Toronto Home Price Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR):

2.9%

Same period S&P 500 CAGR:

8.9%

Toronto one of the “hottest” markets around in Canada.

S&P 500 did not require you to also spend money on maintenance, hydro, city taxes…the list goes on.

You would have done MUCH better indexing the S&P 500.

#42 vancouver help on 08.20.20 at 4:52 pm

Is it just me or is anybody else wondering what a good country to move too, I here Thailand is nice and the monsoon season is like Vancouver winter.

#43 AM in MN on 08.20.20 at 4:54 pm

There is functionally no unemployment in Van & the Lower Mainland. There are people who wish they had their old tourism or service sector job back, but they aren’t in enough pain to accept other employment like construction or the vast support industries of it.

Perhaps they would if it came down to losing their house?

#44 Bill Grable on 08.20.20 at 4:55 pm

A 20% plop…and I believe that’s just the start – here in Vancouver. This town is a mess. The building continues – 600 sq foot boxes for ridiculous amounts – pre-build. For Sale signs are sprouting like the horns on Trumps head. Insane, to the max.
I know a number of long term residents who have moved and will never come back. The common complaint is the ridiculous cost of living, horrible traffic and a spreading cancer of homeless camps – and I guess that has convinced many, that this town is not the place to be.
The sales of homes in the Interior of BC are are on fire….and here it’s crickets.
Vancouver is DONE.

#45 Tater on 08.20.20 at 4:59 pm

#35 baloney Sandwitch on 08.20.20 at 4:47 pm
I frankly cannot understand the logic of buying a rental property when you can buy REITs for 50 cents on the dollar and let the professionals take care of all the hassles of collecting the rent and unplugging the toilet. For example H&R Reit, one of the biggest reit in canada is going for 7% cap rate, 6.5% dividend and is 50% of tangible book value.
—————————————————————

The counter-argument there (not that I agree) is that WFH will reduce the amount of office space needed by corps which will lead to oversupply and lower rents and building values.

Better comparison for those who want to own a rental home, would be one of the residential REITS.

#46 tbone on 08.20.20 at 5:00 pm

I get a chuckle every time i see somebody bragging about collecting cerb . Are they seriously happy to not having a higher paying job.

#47 Brian Ripley on 08.20.20 at 5:03 pm

Lots of big employers are keeping workers remote until 2021. Garth

Not only is this being re-examined by large corporations:
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/real-estate-repurposing

But also by civic administrations:
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/gasping-for-airbnb

These are global ideas in the “developed” world.

#48 Victorian on 08.20.20 at 5:08 pm

RE: CALGARIAN ditto for Victorian..I was one of the greatest fools who read and followed this blog untill purchasing in 2012. Thank god I did.

I read this pathetic blog on and off for 10 years now. I see that predictions are the same, so are the results of the housing market. Greatest fools who believe this blog keep renting and house prices keep going up. Interestingly, still there are predictions of 20% price drop, which has not happened until now and does not look like will happen anytime soon. Meanwhile, believers of this blog have lost opportunity to build equity of hundreds of thousands of dollars at the very least. Keep believing greatest fools.

#49 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 08.20.20 at 5:11 pm

Bill Grable on 08.20.20 at 4:55 pm
For Sale signs are sprouting like the horns on Trumps head. Insane, to the max.
============
I would kindly ask where are you seeing that? I am west of Oak st. and driving around I see the odd for sale sign here and there but nowhere to the extent you imply.
I drove the other day into Richmond and Downtown and not seeing much different. Yes presales signs for sure however nothing new in a large amount.
And since we are talking anecdotes on the other side of the river ( Surrey ,Langley, Abby) presales are selling in minutes and everything under 10 years and under 1.2 mil is selling pretty fast.
My job takes me across all of GVA so I would be more than happy to validate the perception that there is a huge influx of ” For sale” signs.

#50 Honest Realtor on 08.20.20 at 5:11 pm

In a nutshell, I would say the following:

Invest your $1-2 million (whether mortgaged/loaned or self-financed) now in a balanced mix of real estate and Airbnb shares.

In 10 years, you’ll probably have 4-8X the original sum, depending on how soon you buy into Airbnb.

A standard balanced and diversified investment portfolio, well-managed by people like Garth’s reputable firm, will probably go up 3X the original sum.

Both are good returns, compared to buying GICs.

But which looks better to you?

#51 Sara on 08.20.20 at 5:11 pm

# 46 Tbone: ” I get a chuckle every time i see somebody bragging about collecting cerb . Are they seriously happy to not having a higher paying job.”

Honestly I think many who post similarly are employed, not collecting CERB at all. Perhaps they do it to make their point by making you laugh.

#52 Bill on 08.20.20 at 5:11 pm

#35 baloney
———————
HR.UN
Makes sense if you didn’t buy before the corona crunch. but I have to question the quality of assets as being down 50%…still..
I will have to look.
My Reit that is managed VCC ALT INCOME Fund is down only 6% and that’s going through the mess. Yes smaller DIV but has much lower volatility. I’m don’t put more than a few 100K in these. Their always subject to management quality. I’ve got A LOT of $$ in my properties and yes its hard work but I would never put millions into what is still essentially paper. I like my dirt and all but one tenant. lol
As Garth said some of each is wise…..
Visions Capital guys are fantastic outperforming as they can hedge.

#53 FreeBird on 08.20.20 at 5:18 pm

“This is not rocket science, folks. When you pay people more to sit at home than to go back to work, they sit at home. When you don’t, if they are offered a job, they go back to work.”

-Stephen Stanley, chief economist, Amherst Pierpont Securities

Came across this (not a follower). Maybe first part is the point and not job creation? Just asking. We are still allowed to do that?

#54 the Jaguar on 08.20.20 at 5:19 pm

Dumb move to grant four more months of deferrals as a measure to assist troubled homeowners. That means the grim reaper returns at the end of January after they’ve racked up the usual horrendous christmas credit card debt, the possibility of secondary liens on the property registered by other parties owed including CRA, and if a sell order is the only exit the market is softer and values are lower. It’s now six months after lockdown and deferral offers, etc. Time to man up and make the appropriate decisions for yourself and your family and it may include the sale of assets.
Ditto extending the amortization by six months. What good is a small payment adjustment when the real problem is inability to make any payment whatsoever? Mercy.

Jaguar wrote to the Premier of Alberta yesterday, beginning with thanking him for his hard work on behalf of the province and Albertans. I haven’t made up my mind yet about Jason Kenney, but he works his ass off and defends this province like a junkyard dog.

I wrote to tell him that with the students going back to school in a couple of weeks the time had come to dial back a little of the coddling and compassion surrounding Covid and deliver a sterner message to everybody, especially parents. (who will hand wring and screech when the first cases inevitably emerge).
After eight months window on the virus we know the usual suspects are: age, underlying health conditions, city density and household density. Province needs to send a loud and clear message to everyone in those risk groups to take personal responsibility for themselves and their households, i.e if you have a multi-generational household send grandma and grandpa to the basement for cover if kids in the household are going back to school.
The ‘Nanny State’ needs to end. We don’t have the resources to chase after teenagers who won’t follow health policy directives and we cannot afford another lockdown. We’re already operating on ‘fumes’. Blow the hatches.
I got a nice response, but we’ll see what happens. I don’t mind lending my riding crop to Deena Hinshaw if she needs a confidence boost.

#55 Looking up on 08.20.20 at 5:21 pm

#41 Dolce Vita on 08.20.20 at 4:51 pm

—————————-

You’re not making a fair comparison because you’re comparing an investment to a non investment. If you compared the s&p to a Toronto rental property for example, The rental property return would have been much much higher even after carrying costs etc.

#56 Bezengy on 08.20.20 at 5:24 pm

Like the man says investors, your investment is secured by real estate. They sure didn’t get the money for this pos from a bank. This is criminal.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/mobile/this-tiny-toronto-house-just-sold-for-800k-over-asking-1.5072243

#57 Dolce Vita on 08.20.20 at 5:26 pm

Signore Bug not going away quietly in Europe either Garth.

Large countries worse incl. Italia though 1/2 of Italia’s new cases* are “Foreigners”. Rt Italia today = 0.91. Should drop more as the Ferragosto holiday season ends in about 2 weeks time.

New cases map Europe Aug 20, 8 AM CET:

https://i.imgur.com/wq23cuj.jpg

For the “Sweedophiles” 192 new cases a good day for them, more like yesterdays 751 the norm for them.

————————–

*What happens when you open up completely and to Intn’t Travel Canada, have a care.

#58 Canada on 08.20.20 at 5:28 pm

been posting awile now had Canada is pretty much done. Those around me, laugh

here ya go;

https://globalnews.ca/news/7288941/cerb-ei-benefits-coronavirus/

who’s laughing now?….RIP Canada

#59 Northshore guy on 08.20.20 at 5:43 pm

#14
In BC you can defer your property taxes till you drop dead at 0.7% interest rate. You qualify for this at age 55.

Lot of people tell us if you cant afford it then get the hell out. But if home owners can’t afford to pay property tax then no problems, keep your taxes, no need to sell. Gotta keep the inventory low to keep this gasbag inflated.

They have 70% of votes remember.

#60 Dolce Vita on 08.20.20 at 5:50 pm

Honest to God Garth, if this doesn’t want to make you punch your head, nothing else will (2 h ago):

“Ottawa will move CERB recipients to modified EI in $37B program”

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2020/08/20/ottawa-will-move-cerb-recipients-to-modified-ei-in-37b-program.html

If there were any doubt about Freeland, the above ought to settle that issue.

Duck and Cover you 0.1%’ers, ’cause you’re gonna be payin’ for that.

Other news on Twitter a couple hours ago, EI people reckon 2-3 million will transfer from CERB when it ends in a couple of weeks.

Bad Math?

CERB “Total Unique Applicants” = 8.58 million ($68.46B paid out so far)
EI transfer = 2-3 million (add $37B)

But I thought all of those 8.58 million were in need of cash? What about the 5.6 to 6.6 million, what happened to them (COVID didn’t kill them).

#61 Piano_Man87 on 08.20.20 at 5:52 pm

Wow did we screw this up. We should’ve ended the CERB earlier (to incentivize going back to work), and then people would have money to pay their mortgage. Ending both at roughly the same time is just weird.

#62 Calgarian on 08.20.20 at 5:53 pm

#28 WTF and #39 SoggyShorts

Guys, are you serious? One being from somewhere does not mean he/she invests all his money there. So, if there is one thing from this pathetic blog it is this: Diversify!!! So right.

Besides, even in Calgary assets went up unless your timing was really really bad.

My suggestion is, buy a house. You pay 5-7% of the value of that house in rent every year and your rent will go up as RE prices do. Most people in this country do not make 5% annual profit on their cash through investments and even if they do they have to pay tax on that 5%, which leaves 3% anyway so why not make 5-7% just by not paying rent? Sure RE may go down, however that is a possibility for all investment tools and all commodities.

If you decide not to buy and keep renting, then give me a call, I have couple of nice condos becoming available soon;)

#63 Victorian on 08.20.20 at 5:55 pm

Moderate this ….

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 5:58 pm

My my my.
Prez-i-dent Trump hasnt received any endorsements from THESE Republicans.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN25G2C5

And I quote, “He’s a malignant narcissist. He’s a liar. He’s a despicable human being and the worst president in American history – it’s not even close,”

I have said it before and I will say it again,
Trump. Absolutely the worst President at the worst time in modern US history.

#65 Steerage on 08.20.20 at 5:59 pm

And another 40B… and he hasn’t gone big yet!

#66 Jake on 08.20.20 at 6:02 pm

Garth, is this deferral cliff a double edged sword for banks? While some will start paying back, others could default exposing banks to risk of default?

#67 willworkforpickles on 08.20.20 at 6:03 pm

#36 Millenial 1%er
“Could I get a source on the “20% likely to default figure”?”
………………………………………………………………………………………………
It comes from CMHC’s Evan Siddell …his estimate 20% of deferrals in arrears by September…If deferrals are not extended and mortgages continue to remain unpaid, its a no brainer what comes next regardless of all the silly rebuttals opposing Siddall on the issue.
A default still isn’t the absolute end of the line…there are many ways to still save a mortgage before total loss of control.

#68 Not 1st on 08.20.20 at 6:06 pm

35 baloney Sandwitch on 08.20.20

Ever try to ask the bank for a loan to buy REITs?

Bank won’t even lend money to buy their own stock but they will use your deposits to do so.

#69 Sail Away on 08.20.20 at 6:08 pm

Well, one thing to be said for owning a high octane bird dog pup is that it keeps a guy in shape. If the pup doesn’t get out for an hour or more of hard off-leash running… every… single… day, we just have to accept a maniac. For the next year or so, anyway.

Three weeks to bird season, whe he (the pup) will reach Nirvana. And the rest of the pack and me too, of course. Simple minds, simple pleasures. Can’t wait for tipi life- long days, wood stove, flyfishing, no deadlines, no responsibility, endless walks through endless canyons, happy happy dogs.

#70 Ronaldo on 08.20.20 at 6:10 pm

#4 Calgarian on 08.20.20 at 2:13 pm
I read this pathetic blog on and off for 10 years now. I see that predictions are the same, so are the results of the housing market. Greatest fools who believe this blog keep renting and house prices keep going up. Interestingly, still there are predictions of 20% price drop, which has not happened until now and does not look like will happen anytime soon. Meanwhile, believers of this blog have lost opportunity to build equity of hundreds of thousands of dollars at the very least. Keep believing greatest fools.
—————————————————————–
Looking at the charts below for real estate in central Alberta, it has done basically nothing. No big drop, no big gain. Where home owners have gained though over those years is the huge savings in interest because of the low interest rates. My son as an example is currently paying 1.25% on a just renewed 5 year variable prime minus 1.2. Paying less in interest monthly than he would for condo fees and living in a nice comfortable home, large lot and detached garage. Laughing all the way to the bank. I suspect that prices in Calgary have not done much better either over the past 10 years.

https://www.homescope.ca/a-look-at-average-sale-price-in-central-alberta-over-the-last-10-years/

#71 Pete from St. Cesaire on 08.20.20 at 6:10 pm

#53 FreeBird on 08.20.20 at 5:18 pm
“This is not rocket science, folks. When you pay people more to sit at home than to go back to work, they sit at home. When you don’t, if they are offered a job, they go back to work.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There is another factor at play here. Who wants to go to work if they’re required to wear those damn face masks (shields, goggles, etc) all day, and those rules apply mostly to those who earn only minimum wage? No-one who’s opposed to mandatory masking will want to return to work.

#72 Not 1st on 08.20.20 at 6:11 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 5:58 pm

Ever been on a farm before crowded? Go see what happens when you try to pull the hogs out of the trough. Sounds just like those fake repubs.

#73 willworkforpickles on 08.20.20 at 6:12 pm

Having to pay a mortgage without an income anymore is a devastating nightmare I don’t wish on anyone.
Their numbers could soon prove greater than we thought on this blog.

#74 Leftover on 08.20.20 at 6:13 pm

Deferrals, capitalizing missed payments, lengthened amortization, etc, etc. It’s pretty clear that lenders will be having meaningful conversations with about 800,000 borrowers in a month or two, and the message in many cases will be, “We recommend you sell that house”.

In the meantime we have more CERB. It’s getting some unwanted attention lately as people are starting to figure out that the cost ($65 billion so far) is 150% of the incomes lost ($44 billion).

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/services/publications/economic-fiscal-snapshot.html

Pay up indeed.

#75 War Room Pandemic on 08.20.20 at 6:13 pm

Episode #10,342,442 coming to you from behind bars today. The CCP is running the FBI, but we will get to that in just a bit.

CERB in Canada is getting extended. Then 3 new streams of EI for the next year – those coming off CERB, gig workers and people having to care for someone.

This is textbook UBI.

We’re eating cake for the next year in Canada. Bullish home renos.

#76 Sail Away on 08.20.20 at 6:15 pm

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 5:58 pm

And I quote, “He’s a malignant narcissist. He’s a liar. He’s a despicable human being and the worst president in American history – it’s not even close,”

I have said it before and I will say it again,
Trump. Absolutely the worst President at the worst time in modern US history.

—————

Believe nothing that you hear and only half of what you see.

I think Trump’s doing a decent job. And I’m by no means in the minority, regardless of media messages.

#77 SoggyShorts on 08.20.20 at 6:20 pm

#50 Calgarian on 08.20.20 at 5:53 pm
#28 WTF and #39 SoggyShorts

Guys, are you serious? One being from somewhere does not mean he/she invests all his money there. So, if there is one thing from this pathetic blog it is this: Diversify!!! So right.

Besides, even in Calgary assets went up unless your timing was really really bad.

My suggestion is, buy a house. You pay 5-7% of the value of that house in rent every year.
*****************
1. Of the literally infinate choices of names you chose “Calgarian” and then (ignorantly) stated that buying a home is better than renting- it’s perfectly fair to point out that Calgary might have been the worst place to buy a house.

2. You say diversify, but then you justify buying a house because you don’t have to pay rent.
Ummm.. how ya gonna do those together? How many places do you think people live in simultaneously?

3. While you might pay 5% of a house’s value in rent, you do not pay any mortgage interest, repairs/maintenance, taxes, or realtor commissions.
Once those are factored in the REAL math of buying vs renting+investing the difference almost always* points to renting as the VERY clear winner.

4. A huge potential cost of ownership that is rarely mentioned: Mobility. I moved from Calgary to Edmonton almost 10 years ago for an opportunity that turned into a greater than 100% raise a couple of years later. I would never have made taken the risk and made the move if I had owned a home in cow-town.

*Notable exceptions are a slim 9 year span in GTA/GVA, but remember: 70% of canucks don’t live in either one.

#78 SoggyShorts on 08.20.20 at 6:27 pm

#71 Pete from St. Cesaire on 08.20.20 at 6:10 pm
#53 FreeBird on 08.20.20 at 5:18 pm
“This is not rocket science, folks. When you pay people more to sit at home than to go back to work, they sit at home. When you don’t, if they are offered a job, they go back to work.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There is another factor at play here. Who wants to go to work if they’re required to wear those damn face masks (shields, goggles, etc) all day, and those rules apply mostly to those who earn only minimum wage? No-one who’s opposed to mandatory masking will want to return to work.

***********************
Meh. I don’t enjoy wearing a hard hat, but that doesn’t stop me from working. Sometimes it’s 30 degrees out and I’m in a wide open field with no one but myself and the contractor and I have to wear the hard hat because that’s their policy. Suck it up.

#79 WifeOfTrumpAdmirer on 08.20.20 at 6:30 pm

#64 CEF, My significant other (I was young and lacking in self esteem) thinks Trump is awesome which has spawned many futile debates/arguments between us. Since I’ve decided not to divorce at this stage of the game — shared lives, family and cheaper to keep him as Garth has eluded to on this blog many times — I am learning how not to discuss certain issues. Rather I come here to get my frustrations out. Sigh….

#80 Ronaldo on 08.20.20 at 6:30 pm

#48 Victorian on 08.20.20 at 5:08 pm
RE: CALGARIAN ditto for Victorian..I was one of the greatest fools who read and followed this blog untill purchasing in 2012. Thank god I did.
—————————————————————–
If you don’t mind my asking, where did you buy?

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.20 at 6:46 pm

I’m not known for being a big fan of the American Dream. It’s a slogan, perpetuated by Holywood.
Having said that, I love Blues, Jazz & Country which originated there.
I just came across a documentary on Netflix about Keith Richards, jeah that guy!
Recommend it highly. Most of all of is are prejudiced against the guy, but watch it to the end and you’ll be surprised.
Fantastic clips with the Greats of Blues, many of whom are all but forgotten.
Quote by Richards “The best America has ever given to the World are the Blues and Jazz”.
I would say, the best thing they gave to the World is democracy and leadership.
People say: Never bet against America.
The next 6 months will show if this is still true.

#82 westcoaster on 08.20.20 at 6:46 pm

I don’t get it how well the stock market and real estate is doing despite all this reported bad news.

I can’t imagine how well everything will do when all settles down. Garth always says that the stock market prices in the fear so really the stock market and RE can only keep going up because the fear is already priced in.

I could have paid for a Tesla if I just had not listened to Garth and invested $10,000 in TSLA back when it was just under $400/share.

#83 Sail Away on 08.20.20 at 6:51 pm

#79 WifeOfTrumpAdmirer on 08.20.20 at 6:30 pm

#64 CEF, My significant other (I was young and lacking in self esteem) thinks Trump is awesome which has spawned many futile debates/arguments between us.

Since I’ve decided not to divorce at this stage of the game — shared lives, family and cheaper to keep him as Garth has eluded to on this blog many times — I am learning how not to discuss certain issues. Rather I come here to get my frustrations out. Sigh….

————-

Man, I’m glad I got a good wife. Although… she thinks Trump is terrible while I think he’s doing just fine.

Sometimes we happily debate politics if we don’t have important things to discuss. Neither of us has any need to change the other’s opinion and wouldn’t dream of letting something as insignificant as different perspective affect our relationship.

#84 Nonplused on 08.20.20 at 6:54 pm

“This is uncharted territory since never before in our lifetimes have we faced a global pandemic, nor had a society so indebted, so exposed, and with so much of their net worth in a single, leveraged asset.”

I don’t know about that. The pandemic part that is. But it is certainly the most amount of debt at all levels and the first time we shut everything down.

I guess the part to be resolved is whether covid was nothing more than a pin to a bubble in search of popping. The debt levels were unsustainable. The question I am asking is if it wasn’t covid, would it have just been something else at a later date? And if so, what does that mean for the prospects of a recovery?

Another question; If so many people are 1 paycheck away from not paying the bills, why were the airlines not already in trouble? Who was buying all those all-inclusive vacations in Mexico and with what money? Now that they have had a taste of insolvency, will the first thing they do when they do get a job back is book a trip? How much of the previous economy was frivolous and thus not likely to rebound?

And what happens when the deferrals and eviction moratoriums end? If “Keep your rent” still hasn’t found a job where does he go when the locks finally get changed? And if there is a mass of listings when the deferrals end, who is going to buy these houses?

There is reason, I think, to conclude “turning the economy back on” isn’t going to be like turning on a light. It’ll be like planting a new crop and waiting for it to grow. No “V” shaped recovery, more like a “lost decade”. So even though we will probably return to growth and there will be some sort of a snapback getting back to where we were may take some years. Sort of like imagine a 30% decline (past tense) and then 5% growth, but off the lows, so it is 6 years before the damage is completely undone. But of course if we get some sort of green energy mandate it could take a lot longer than that.

—————————————-

I’m interested to see how back to school goes. I’ve read the so-called plans they have in place for my son’s school and I predict a colossal failure. It’s one thing to get everyone to wear a mask and social distance in Costco because you are only there an hour and it isn’t very busy compared to the panic or even pre-covid. It’s going to be quite another to pack the kids on the bus and into classrooms and expect them to wear a mask faithfully for 7 or more hours (counting the bus ride), not touch each other, and not share pencils. Plus how much fun is it going to be going to school in a situation that resembles a chemical war zone? I don’t think it is going to work until they can go back to “business as usual”.

#85 Bill on 08.20.20 at 6:58 pm

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz
———————————–
If you look into the other prezs historys…I mean the real history not the crap on the News. I spent a ton of time in the states and the news is a disaster….and then some. And then I see CBC (T2s bought offs) just repeating what their they say. CNN has been bust so many times for manipulation statements..
Trumps doing a great job. He ain’t no socialist unlike our fool.

#86 Anonymous on 08.20.20 at 6:58 pm

Yesterday we discussed the new direction the government might take in regards to narrowing the economic gap.

Not specifically mentioned, but on everyone’s mind, is a UBI.

Garth, what would you expect to be the effect of introducing a UBI in the next throne speech on real-estate values? The timing of the throne speech is awfully close to the deferral cliff.

Even a very modest UBI of 500$/month per adult means that a family that lost one job can probably keep paying their mortgage. Not to mention that it will increase the carrying ability by a good 50% (for a 2,000$ monthly) for anyone who still has their income. How would that effect real estate values?

I am pretty sure the recipient of a UBI will not be putting it into ETFs or furthering their education, but will plough it right into real-estate, because this is what we do here. And if the income supporting this borrowing comes partly from the government this is the mother or all guarantee to the lender, so no reason for the banks not to dish out the money…

#87 not 1st on 08.20.20 at 7:05 pm

#79 WifeOfTrumpAdmirer on 08.20.20 at 6:30 pm

Sorry to hear politics is a point of contention for your family, but if you look past Trumps warts and the blaring MSM megaphone, you will see what he is trying to do. We don’t support him because we want someone pure. Vote for the pope if you like. If you want useless platitudes shoved in your face we have Justin and Obama for that.

We support trump because he is here to do one job – destroy globalism and the institutions behind it and repatriate GDP. That’s it.

That single policy enacted by the eggheads 30 yrs ago did more damage to lives than anything trump can do. The economy was steamrolling it before the corona virus came along.

#88 TurnerNation on 08.20.20 at 7:12 pm

You guys seeing this in your own cities? Look how fast the New System is being rolled out.

ALL media & polls today serves as predictive programming. The deck is stacked. There is no real news given us. You must figure it out yourselves.
Once again watch your travel rights…always the main target. Food, secondarily.

The Future: Basically crammed and warehoused into tiny boxes alongside violent drug addicts with fewer police. Life on the tax slave farm:

– The post-pandemic future: Toronto’s main streets will become European-style pedestrian hubs torontolife.com
– Feds provide $500K to launch 2 safer supply programs in Toronto amid opioid overdose crisis cp24.com
-The post-pandemic future: Modular housing can end homelessness torontolife.com
– Why we should turn city lands and golf courses into massive urban farms torontolife.com
– This Toronto Crisis Team Has Handled Mental Health Calls Without Cops for 30 Years vice.com
– Midtown residents have legitimate concerns about safety near shelters, councillor says cbc.ca
– Toronto headed toward surpassing last year’s record number of shootings blogto.com

By the way you never get your freedoms back exactly. You must submit to the New Sytem at all times, esp. kids:

– If approved, saliva-based COVID-19 tests could be helpful as kids return to school, Toronto’s associate medical officer of health says cp24.com

#89 TypoHater on 08.20.20 at 7:15 pm

Ooops. That should have been ‘alluded’ not ‘eluded’

#90 Nonplused on 08.20.20 at 7:15 pm

#5 Cheese on 08.20.20 at 2:20 pm
“You will never own a home or raise a family. You were simply born too late.”

I know that feel, and it hurts.

——————————

Having done both, I suggest you could also chose see it as a blessing. How does that old song go, “freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose”? In retrospect I might have opted for freedom but I didn’t really think about things, I just did what was expected of me by family, church and state. It worked out ok, but I often wonder what life would have been like if I didn’t have to mow the lawn every weekend and all the other things. Don’t get me wrong, my kids turned out great, but once the baby arrives you get about 4 hours a week to yourself if that. Plus there is a lot of heartache especially when the lawyers get involved. And guess what happens to the house? Chances are it gets sold because neither spouse can afford to keep it. 38% chance of that happening. If you stay single the odds are 0%.

But the grass is always greener on the other side, I suppose.

#91 Howard on 08.20.20 at 7:18 pm

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/this-tiny-toronto-house-just-sold-for-800k-over-asking-1.5072243

The little shack sold for $1.8 million land value.

#92 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 08.20.20 at 7:20 pm

#83 Sail Away on 08.20.20 at 6:51 pm
#79 WifeOfTrumpAdmirer on 08.20.20 at 6:30 pm

#64 CEF, My significant other (I was young and lacking in self esteem) thinks Trump is awesome which has spawned many futile debates/arguments between us.

Since I’ve decided not to divorce at this stage of the game — shared lives, family and cheaper to keep him as Garth has eluded to on this blog many times — I am learning how not to discuss certain issues. Rather I come here to get my frustrations out. Sigh….

————-

Man, I’m glad I got a good wife. Although… she thinks Trump is terrible while I think he’s doing just fine.

Sometimes we happily debate politics if we don’t have important things to discuss. Neither of us has any need to change the other’s opinion and wouldn’t dream of letting something as insignificant as different perspective affect our relationship.

//////////////

Or your wife just explained to you, and everyone else, why she keeps you around.

#93 Blogshark on 08.20.20 at 7:20 pm

And onward to 300 parliament seats justin! Karen has her boy and dammit he’s gonna play in the big league.

#94 jal on 08.20.20 at 7:28 pm

“Duck and Cover you 0.1%’ers, ’cause you’re gonna be payin’ for that.”
—-
Hehehe
and pray tell me which 0.1%’ers is making you pay.
Yuno that it wasnt an iliterate blue collar worker.
Don’t get mad at those with less than yu.
They are doing the same as the 0.1%’ers and taking advantage of the helicopter money.

#95 Nonplused on 08.20.20 at 7:30 pm

#10 Dave on 08.20.20 at 2:54 pm
Thank God, real estate prices have made life toooo hard on everyone.

—————————

Real estate has always been major expensive. I don’t know where this new trend has come from that the young folks figure they were just handing out houses 30 or 60 years ago. Sure, the houses were cheaper, but you got paid a lot less too.

My grandfather only ever owned one house and it took him his whole career to pay it off. My father’s first house was very modest and he built it himself. It was still all he could do to afford it and he drove very used cars. (Things got better for him later on.) I started out living in my grandmother’s basement suite while I went to school. Then I rented for years. My first house was a 900 sqft post war building (but it had a nice lot and a garage).

Kids these days expect to be born on the finish line.

Life is like a tree. It starts out small, but it grows. Not so fast you can notice it, but it is relentless.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 7:31 pm

@#72 Definitely Not 1st
“Ever been on a farm before crowded? ”
+++++

Uhhhh, yep.
Grandparents owned a dairy farm and I was their indentured slave every summer from June 30th to Aug 31.
After the chores were done I was either lent out to other relatives that needed free labor to cut pulp or whatever crappy job they didnt want to do.
From 10 to 16 when I finally got my own paying job and didnt have to go to work on the farm.
Didnt have to deal with too any pigs, thank god, the stench from the sty was enough.

As for those squealing Republican hogs you refer to.
All have excellent Republican credentials from many previous administrations.

Trump is a cancer and he doesn’t care who or what he destroys….just so long as he gets to brag about it like a 6 year old in the school yard.

His “schtik” is getting worn out and tiresome.
How’s that Wall coming?
Built yet?

#97 Paul on 08.20.20 at 7:40 pm

17 Reade on 08.20.20 at 3:41 pm
Garth love the blog (MSU). I see cottage market is exploding right now. Wouldn’t you think this market would be the first to crash? I am assuming they aren’t being purchased for cash. What r your thoughts?
———————————————————————————————-
Double trouble, a lot leverage the house for the down payment on the second property. Plus some collateralize both properties and risk loosing both.

#98 WifeOfTrumpAdmirer on 08.20.20 at 7:45 pm

#83 SailAway: ” Man, I’m glad I got a good wife. Although… she thinks Trump is terrible while I think he’s doing just fine.

Sometimes we happily debate politics if we don’t have important things to discuss. Neither of us has any need to change the other’s opinion and wouldn’t dream of letting something as insignificant as different perspective affect our relationship.”

Happy for you.

For me and my spouse, the disagreement regarding Trump is not just about an “insignificant different perspective” but is reflective of different values and ways of thinking, something that can be challenging to reconcile in a marriage, regardless how “good a wife” (or husband) one is.

Google ” Trump triggers divorce” for more insight.

#99 Sail Away on 08.20.20 at 7:52 pm

#82 westcoaster on 08.20.20 at 6:46 pm

I could have paid for a Tesla if I just had… invested $10,000 in TSLA back when it was just under $400/share.

————

Haha, that’s funny…

On May 6, 2018, I texted a friend ‘I’d suggest putting $10,000 into Tesla and let it ride… it all depends on Elon’.

It was around $285.

He texted back: ‘I would rather buy another new guitar’.

#100 Nonplused on 08.20.20 at 7:56 pm

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 5:58 pm

“And I quote, “He’s a malignant narcissist. He’s a liar. He’s a despicable human being and the worst president in American history – it’s not even close,”

————————————–

My, my. So insulting someone has become political discourse these days? Oh wait I suppose it always was.

“He’s a malignant narcissist.” What does that mean? Does it mean anything that can’t be applied to any politician?

“He’s a liar.” Well he is in politics so I suppose that is a given.

“He’s a despicable human being” Probably but what do non-despicable human beings look like? The antifa rioters?

“and the worst president in American history – it’s not even close,” Possibly but saying it doesn’t make it so. He was doing pretty good on his campaign promises until covid and no he did not sabotage the postal service or put kids in cages or call the KKK “fine people”.

I’m paraphrasing (too lazy to look up quotes) but he knocked it out of the park when asked by a reporter what he thought of the Qanon conspiracy theory that he was here to save the world from Satanists and pedophiles (don’t know why they always get grouped together, they are different things) but anyway his reply was classic stand up comedy when dealing with a heckler, “I don’t know about that, but are you saying that would be a bad thing?” (again, paraphrased)

(And note that one by one the pedophiles and rapists are finding themselves in jail, probably what started the conspiracy theory but I don’t know that Trump had much if anything to do with it other than he wasn’t closely associated with any of them. Clinton sure was though.)

#101 yvr_lurker on 08.20.20 at 7:57 pm

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz
—————————-
Although we have differences on the relative merits of those on the Gov’t payroll, I agree fully with your sentiment on Trump. Absolute worst type of personality that a president could have for a crisis like this. Divisive, selfish, ignorant and mistrusting of science, compulsive liar, and the list goes on and on. I haven’t been to the US since 2016 since my family initiated its self-imposed quarantine. If Elmer Fudd was running for president against Trump I know where I would cast my ballot (if I was american).

#102 Trump loves on 08.20.20 at 8:00 pm

the uneducated… he said so himself

#103 Paul on 08.20.20 at 8:04 pm

#76 Sail Away on 08.20.20 at 6:15 pm
#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 5:58 pm

And I quote, “He’s a malignant narcissist. He’s a liar. He’s a despicable human being and the worst president in American history – it’s not even close,”

I have said it before and I will say it again,
Trump. Absolutely the worst President at the worst time in modern US history.

—————

Believe nothing that you hear and only half of what you see.

I think Trump’s doing a decent job. And I’m by no means in the minority, regardless of media messages.
————————————————————————————————
Who else would do better? Biden, Kamala? Can’t be to hard on Joe as he is showing his age but really he’s not campaigning plus they want him to dodge the debates and stay off the talk shows.

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 8:05 pm

@#100 Nonplused = minus

Wow!
You Trump fanatics get really pumped up when someone calls a pig….. a….. pig.

I can only imagine how upset you’ll (yall?) be when he gets his ass handed to him Nov 3rd.

On another political pig note…

Looks like Putin has just dealt with another popular adversary……

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-politics-navalny/putin-critic-navalny-fights-for-life-aides-suspect-poisoning-idUSKBN25G0F9

Is it me or does poisoning seem so …sneaky and gutless…..
Well, one can only expect, eventually, Putin expires by the same “sword”.

#105 Nonplused on 08.20.20 at 8:07 pm

#68 Not 1st on 08.20.20 at 6:06 pm
35 baloney Sandwitch on 08.20.20

Ever try to ask the bank for a loan to buy REITs?

Bank won’t even lend money to buy their own stock but they will use your deposits to do so.

—————————————

Hmmm if you don’t even know what a margin account is I suggest you should let Garth manage all your money.

#106 not 1st on 08.20.20 at 8:14 pm

#101 yvr_lurker on 08.20.20 at 7:57 pm

You banned yourself from the US because Trump is president? That’s quite petty don’t you think. I for one cant wait to travel there again.

Covid is nothing compared to the real fight trump is going after.

Sorry trump hurts your feelings. Next time we will get Greta or something for you after this is all fixed, but for right now, for this fight, for these times, he is exactly the perfect guy for the job at hand.

#107 joblo on 08.20.20 at 8:17 pm

So do the Lieberals think the 2nd Wuhan wave is gonna be a shirt show?

#108 Sigmund Freud on 08.20.20 at 8:24 pm

100 Nonplused on 08.20.20 at 7:56 pm
#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 5:58 pm

“And I quote, “He’s a malignant narcissist. He’s a liar. He’s a despicable human being and the worst president in American history – it’s not even close,”
—————————————————————–

Have you read Mary Trump’s book on uncle Donald? She has a PhD in psychology and combines her analysis with some rather startling dysfunctional family history…

#109 Boomer Bill on 08.20.20 at 8:29 pm

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 7:31 pm
@#72 Definitely Not 1st
“Ever been on a farm before crowded? ”
+++++

Uhhhh, yep.
Grandparents owned a dairy farm and I was their indentured slave every summer from June 30th to Aug 31.
After the chores were done I was either lent out to other relatives that needed free labor to cut pulp or whatever crappy job they didnt want to do.
—————————————————————

Good for you Fartzy! Gramps taught you many solid life lessons with all that farm work that has served you well in life. I also grew up on a farm and am eternally grateful for it. As the late, great John Kenneth Galbraith used to tell his Harvard colleagues, “the problem with you my friend is you never grew up on a farm. You don’t know what work is until you spend time working on a farm…”

#110 Timmy on 08.20.20 at 8:45 pm

RE #4 Calgarian:

only a fool would buy a house in Calgary now. Ground zero for a housing melt. Right wing nut bar Premier who is betting the farm on a dying industry. Many houses coming on the market and no catalyst to prop up the housing market.

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 8:48 pm

@#108 Sigmund
“Have you read Mary Trump’s book on uncle Donald?”

++++

Its on the “to do” list.
When I have some spare time.
Been working 7 days/week for many months.
Barely have time to read The Economist while drinking 15 beer a night ( just kidding….its only 14 beer).
But I promise I will read it.

#112 Gen Z on 08.20.20 at 8:53 pm

Wishful thinking. You could earn C$38000 a year, and still get a topup of C$2000 a month thanks to Trudeau.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 8:53 pm

@#107 Joblo
“So do the Lieberals think the 2nd Wuhan wave is gonna be a shirt show?”

+++++

I think Justin is hoping for “shirtless” show…. kinda like this one in Wuhan…….parrrr-taaaaay like its Covid 99.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/china-defends-wuhan-pool-party-after-viral-video-prompts-outrage-1.5071825

#114 yvr_lurker on 08.20.20 at 8:55 pm

#106 not 1st

Essentially the only item I agree with on the Trump agenda is to stand up to China. The US is a maximally heterogeneous place, with opinions ranging from one extreme to the other. I have university friends down there generally on the progressive side of the spectrum. However, I have no interest in visiting at this stage. RV-ing, golfing in Palm Springs, the Smithsonian, or watching pro sports is not my thing: trouping around in the mountains or in the jungle, or visiting some remote (and cheap) beaches, with a backpack is more my style.

#115 IHCTD9 on 08.20.20 at 8:59 pm

oth.

#98 WifeOfTrumpAdmirer on 08.20.20 at 7:45 pm

Happy for you.

For me and my spouse, the disagreement regarding Trump is not just about an “insignificant different perspective” but is reflective of different values and ways of thinking, something that can be challenging to reconcile in a marriage, regardless how “good a wife” (or husband) one is.

Google ” Trump triggers divorce” for more insight.
—— —

Heh, I’m married to a card carrying NDP partisan. I’m a knuckle dragging Harper/Harris loving Neandercon. We make it work, but political discussions are always handled with a good dose of respect for the others’ world view, and a heaping pile of humour. Keeping it light. No point in arguing, both of us are thick skulled first born, and neither one of us is changing our mind on anything.

At the end of the day, political compatibility needs to sink down the list of life priorities if husband and wife don’t agree. Ms. IH and I absolutely do not agree, so I keep it light, hilarious, and look forward to many more years of cancelling each other’s vote out at the polling station! :D

PS, if you haven’t hit 40 yet, I suspect things will improve. 30’s are a real bastard for politics.

#116 Nonplused on 08.20.20 at 9:02 pm

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 8:05 pm
@#100 Nonplused = minus

Wow!
You Trump fanatics get really pumped up when someone calls a pig….. a….. pig.

——————————–

The problem is that when you call a person a pig you lose a lot of credibility, as it seems you can’t tell 4 legs from 2.

There are lots of bad things to be said about Trump and his policies. But ad hominem attacks mean you have already lost the argument and are desperate. Even when you do it to me. I am not a “Trump fanatic”. But the problem they face down south is nobody knows why on earth Joe Biden is running.

#117 SoggyShorts on 08.20.20 at 9:02 pm

#105 Nonplused on 08.20.20 at 8:07 pm
#68 Not 1st on 08.20.20 at 6:06 pm
35 baloney Sandwitch on 08.20.20

Ever try to ask the bank for a loan to buy REITs?

Bank won’t even lend money to buy their own stock but they will use your deposits to do so.

—————————————

Hmmm if you don’t even know what a margin account is I suggest you should let Garth manage all your money.
************************
And if you’re using a margin account at 7% interest to invest I suggest you should let Garth manage all your money.

#118 Nonplused on 08.20.20 at 9:07 pm

#108 Sigmund Freud on 08.20.20 at 8:24 pm
100 Nonplused on 08.20.20 at 7:56 pm
#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 5:58 pm

“And I quote, “He’s a malignant narcissist. He’s a liar. He’s a despicable human being and the worst president in American history – it’s not even close,”
—————————————————————–

Have you read Mary Trump’s book on uncle Donald? She has a PhD in psychology and combines her analysis with some rather startling dysfunctional family history…

———————————-

Yes, and we should totally discount the profit motive as well because there is no way this particular Mary Trump could be interested in that.

I am sure there is a lot of dysfunction in the Trump family. I don’t need a niece that thought she should have gotten more money from her grandfather’s estate to tell me that.

As always, you have to consider the source.

#119 Cici on 08.20.20 at 9:09 pm

Oh, oh… the generous T2 gang is back at it, and the money’s growing and flowing from the trees:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ottawa-extends-cerb-and-announces-three-new-covid-19-benefits-190619588.html

#120 Doug t on 08.20.20 at 9:13 pm

#100 Nopulse

Whaaaaaaaaat – seriously? – shnore

#121 Jeff on 08.20.20 at 9:16 pm

Things will get better. Next year should be robust (Mr. Market thinks so).

I love how economists refer to market forces with personification; problem is, humans run the market, strange things happen in the global and micro-markets, which economists cannot predict; the problem is greed Garth, pure and simple; keep hoping that things will return to normal; I suggest that people pack up their crap, we’re going bye bye

#122 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.20 at 9:16 pm

CEF,
“malignant” narcissist is a little over the line.
“plain” narcissist is just perfect, and so is the rest of the character profile.
CEF, where all pigs are slaughtered equally.

#123 WifeOfTrumpAdmirer on 08.20.20 at 9:19 pm

#92 “Or your wife just explained to you, and everyone else, why she keeps you around. ”

Funny, I was thinking the same, but was being “good” and kept quiet.

#124 Jeff on 08.20.20 at 9:22 pm

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 7:31 pm
@#72 Definitely Not 1st
“Ever been on a farm before crowded? ”
+++++

yeah, Ive worked on farms, and the only reason farmers are wealthy is because they exploit their family’s labour and the temp foreign workers; most farmers, btw, inherited their property…yeah, they worked, but without free inherited land they’d be working in the city

#125 DON on 08.20.20 at 9:24 pm

48 Victorian on 08.20.20 at 5:08 pm
RE: CALGARIAN ditto for Victorian..I was one of the greatest fools who read and followed this blog untill purchasing in 2012. Thank god I did.

I read this pathetic blog on and off for 10 years now. I see that predictions are the same, so are the results of the housing market. Greatest fools who believe this blog keep renting and house prices keep going up. Interestingly, still there are predictions of 20% price drop, which has not happened until now and does not look like will happen anytime soon. Meanwhile, believers of this blog have lost opportunity to build equity of hundreds of thousands of dollars at the very least. Keep believing greatest fools.

****************
blank stare..

Yes it is no longer 2010…things are much worse in 2020. How much money do you think first time home owners have at their disposal.

#126 IHCTD9 on 08.20.20 at 9:27 pm

#90 Nonplused on 08.20.20 at 7:15 pm
#5 Cheese on 08.20.20 at 2:20 pm
“You will never own a home or raise a family. You were simply born too late.”

I know that feel, and it hurts.

——————————

Having done both, I suggest you could also chose see it as a blessing. How does that old song go, “freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose”? In retrospect I might have opted for freedom but I didn’t really think about things, I just did what was expected of me by family, church and state. It worked out ok, but I often wonder what life would have been like if I didn’t have to mow the lawn every weekend and all the other things. Don’t get me wrong, my kids turned out great, but once the baby arrives you get about 4 hours a week to yourself if that. Plus there is a lot of heartache especially when the lawyers get involved. And guess what happens to the house? Chances are it gets sold because neither spouse can afford to keep it. 38% chance of that happening. If you stay single the odds are 0%.

But the grass is always greener on the other side, I suppose.
—- —

Yep, family, church, and state. I almost had a bloody heart attack when my first born was plopped in my arms for the first time.

No thought was given, and yet things have been very good. This is not the case for everyone. For every happy family, there is another towing a truckload of regret. You can’t plan life out like that, you gotta play the hand you’re dealt. You have next to zero control of how things turn out.

Cheese, you’ve got a decent nest egg for your age, the house you never bought might have been the worst financial decision you ever made. The family you never had may have been the one you wished you never had. By the time you hit 50, none of these things are going to matter. Keep doing what you’re doing, you’re on the right track.

#127 Pete on 08.20.20 at 9:30 pm

In the present, though, investors are making a fortune on buying and selling real estate.

Hardly. Nobody is making big money flipping, given acquisition and selling costs. – Garth

#128 Canuck on 08.20.20 at 9:43 pm

We’ve never lived through a global pandemic? How about the Asian flu in 1957? How about the Hong Kong flu in 1968… you know, during woodstock? How about H1N1 in 2009?

The only difference this time is we bought the media hype and shut down the economy.
The virus is real. The response is ridiculous.

#129 Steven Rowlandson on 08.20.20 at 9:46 pm

A 20% drop does not correct 50+ years of price inflation and no real increase in incomes. Better get used to the idea of something far more severe like 90% or more.
Banks, realtors and all manner of home owner or investors need a real reality check…. They are out of touch with the consequences of the labor market…

#130 jess on 08.20.20 at 9:52 pm

New York federal prosecutors on Thursday charged President Donald Trump’s former adviser Steve Bannon and three others with defrauding donors of hundreds of thousands of dollars as part of a fundraising campaign purportedly aimed at supporting Trump’s border wall.
Bannon, 66, was arrested at 7:30 a.m. Thursday near Westbrook, Connecticut, on the yacht of exiled Chinese dissident Guo Wengui, according to two law enforcement officials. Federal agents, officials from the United States Postal Inspection Service and the United States Coast Guard, assisted, officials said.

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 9:53 pm

Gee, not a great day for the Prez.

First. “The Wall” .
Former Trump aide and election strategist Steve Bannon has been charged with Mail Fraud for …… allegedly…….. stealing money donated to….build…… The Wall.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/steve-bannon-charged-with-defrauding-we-build-the-wall-crowdfunding-campaign

Then, in New York State….. a judge disagrees with Trumps’ lawyers…… we will …… finally …… get to see if The Donald is a billionaire as he claims……..

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-must-turn-over-tax-returns-ny-prosecutors-judge-rules-n1237451

Karma.

:)

#132 Pete from St. Cesaire on 08.20.20 at 9:55 pm

#106 nonplussed
But the problem they face down south is nobody knows why on earth Joe Biden is running.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Joe is running because the powers-that-be want Trump to get his 2nd term, and they control both parties. The powers-that-be need for Trump’s win to be believable. Who could doubt Trump will win when his opponent is…….well……Biden.
The powers-that-be desire a long drawn out period of civil strife but they want the Trump supporters to be victorious in the end so as to provide the groundwork for their new monetary system to thrive.

Please say that was satire. – Garth

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 9:58 pm

@#116 Nonplused = minus

“The problem is that when you call a person a pig you lose a lot of credibility, as it seems you can’t tell 4 legs from 2.”

+++++

Ok ok.
He’s not a groping, grasping, materialistic, narcissistic liar….
He’s a jack-ass.
I’ll leave it up to you to determine if I believe he has 2 legs or 4

#134 The Woosh on 08.20.20 at 10:32 pm

#127 Pete on 08.20.20 at 9:30 pm
In the present, though, investors are making a fortune on buying and selling real estate.

Hardly. Nobody is making big money flipping, given acquisition and selling costs. – Garth

——————————————————

Not if you live in Quebec. Folks who decide to sell or buy using DuProprio instead of a real estate agent don’t have huge acquisition or selling costs. Real estate agents charge huge commissions but do they really offer that much value. Got to wonder why the rest of the country hasn’t caught on to this!

#135 Sail Away on 08.20.20 at 10:34 pm

#123 WifeOfTrumpAdmirer on 08.20.20 at 9:19 pm
#92 “Or your wife just explained to you, and everyone else, why she keeps you around. ”

————–

Funny, I was thinking the same, but was being “good” and kept quiet.

————–

Heh heh… sometimes it comes out when she drinks too much… then all the ladies laugh when I walk in.

I sort of enjoy being objectified to be honest

#136 DON on 08.20.20 at 10:41 pm

Like Trump or hate him…all the Dems can come up with is Biden. Of all the good and deserving Americans, Biden was their leading choice. For the people by the People.

Nice that Biden’s wife needed to come out in is defense…where was Mr. Biden?

Seems odd…no?

#137 45north on 08.20.20 at 10:48 pm

better off homeless

Wouldn’t we start seeing a flood of listings right now if there was a deferral cliff?

We would but we aren’t. 2020 July sales are up over 2019 July sales. We’ve shut down the economy but there have been no consequences. Evan Siddall head of CMHC warns of a 20% drop in house prices but there’s been no drop.

The key word is cliff – a very steep, vertical or overhanging face of rock, earth or ice. It’s a cliff in a plain – the plain is mostly flat with gentle hills. The analogy is with the housing market. The plain is the slow gentle way that the housing market has moved over the last 50 years. What’s different is that never before have 800,000 households deferred their mortgages. At a time when people have record levels of debt and when they have so much of their net worth in a single leveraged asset. (phrase stolen from Garth). So to follow the analogy, we have been moving across a gentle plain but we’re coming up to a cliff.

And to make it more interesting, it’s not just a real estate cliff, we’re also headed towards a political cliff. Both here and in the United States.

#138 Drinking on 08.20.20 at 10:51 pm

#50 Honest Realtor

Interesting analogy besides the ones calling fowl in the incredibly lucky hot spots.

If one is a gambler then I have no issues with your statement; if not, then who the hell really knows what is going to happen. Perhaps you represent a certain few that can easily afford it but it would be irresponsible to direct this to all out there. We are all suppose to be in this togehter; what a hyperbole! Just be careful and have some sort of conscience on what you are pushing!

#139 DON on 08.20.20 at 10:53 pm

Nonplused #148

“I don’t know about that. The pandemic part that is. But it is certainly the most amount of debt at all levels and the first time we shut everything down.

I guess the part to be resolved is whether covid was nothing more than a pin to a bubble in search of popping. The debt levels were unsustainable. The question I am asking is if it wasn’t covid, would it have just been something else at a later date? And if so, what does that mean for the prospects of a recovery?

Another question; If so many people are 1 paycheck away from not paying the bills, why were the airlines not already in trouble? Who was buying all those all-inclusive vacations in Mexico and with what money? Now that they have had a taste of insolvency, will the first thing they do when they do get a job back is book a trip? How much of the previous economy was frivolous and thus not likely to rebound?

And what happens when the deferrals and eviction moratoriums end? If “Keep your rent” still hasn’t found a job where does he go when the locks finally get changed? And if there is a mass of listings when the deferrals end, who is going to buy these houses?”

**************************

Any blog realtors or house pumpers wanna take a shot at answering these logical questions?

#140 DON on 08.20.20 at 10:57 pm

Jobless claims unexpectantly jumped back over 1 million again. via bloomberg.

#141 Drinking on 08.20.20 at 10:59 pm

#128 Canuck

Perhaps you are right or not! What is wrong on waiting to see what happens this winter when the kiddies return to school, flu and cold season hits along with the Covid virus? We all know (well, most of us) that this is a (man made) virus not to play around with; this winter will tell the true tale!!!

#142 Drinking on 08.20.20 at 11:16 pm

Interesting article; now is dating back 150 yrs where they had no where near the current medical expertise as we have now. Still think Covid is a hoax?

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/sweden-records-highest-death-tally-in-150-years-in-first-six-months-of-2020/wcm/bccb5aa9-8896-4ee5-9d28-862c399e8aba/

#143 AM in MN on 08.20.20 at 11:35 pm

#64 CEF, My significant other (I was young and lacking in self esteem) thinks Trump is awesome which has spawned many futile debates/arguments between us.
—————————————————-

Try this next time the subject comes up. Get on google and download a few stories of housewives in places like Venezuela, or even Argentina, and lately Lebanon, and have her read them to you.

Places where people (incl. women) had reasonable middle class lives and full store shelves for the necessities, and then the currency blew up and dropped by 70%.

Now imagine you had to go into a voting booth and pick between economic and cultural marxism, and someone you’ve been told to hate, but since you don’t have to have dinner with him, doesn’t actually make any difference to your real life, just your feelings.

Lucky to be married to someone who will be voting Trump because they want to keep their freedoms, especially the right to religious freedom. Suburban wife, educated and able to see through the fog. You should have discussed these issues before marriage…

BTW, lumber prices through the roof. BC can’t export enough. The economy has changed, with massive suburban (lumber!) building and renos, and going to be that wat for a while. The money and time previously spent travelling or entertaining is now being put to use helping people escape the downtown war zones…

#144 Don Guillermo on 08.20.20 at 11:47 pm

#70 Ronaldo on 08.20.20 at 6:10 pm
#4 Calgarian on 08.20.20 at 2:13 pm
I read this pathetic blog on and off for 10 years now. I see that predictions are the same, so are the results of the housing market. Greatest fools who believe this blog keep renting and house prices keep going up. Interestingly, still there are predictions of 20% price drop, which has not happened until now and does not look like will happen anytime soon. Meanwhile, believers of this blog have lost opportunity to build equity of hundreds of thousands of dollars at the very least. Keep believing greatest fools.
—————————————————————–
Looking at the charts below for real estate in central Alberta, it has done basically nothing. No big drop, no big gain. Where home owners have gained though over those years is the huge savings in interest because of the low interest rates. My son as an example is currently paying 1.25% on a just renewed 5 year variable prime minus 1.2. Paying less in interest monthly than he would for condo fees and living in a nice comfortable home, large lot and detached garage. Laughing all the way to the bank. I suspect that prices in Calgary have not done much better either over the past 10 years.

https://www.homescope.ca/a-look-at-average-sale-price-in-central-alberta-over-the-last-10-years/

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The folks I know in Calgary make money on hard work , saving and investing. Housing not so much. Maybe the ROC should give hard work a go. Doubt it though.

#145 Where's My Money Going Gweedeau? Going Big To Switzerland???? on 08.20.20 at 11:52 pm

Re: #130 jess on 08.20.20 at 9:52 pm
New York federal prosecutors on Thursday charged President Donald Trump’s former adviser Steve Bannon and three others with defrauding donors of hundreds of thousands of dollars as part of a fundraising campaign purportedly aimed at supporting Trump’s border wall.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
And yet the Clinton Crime Familia get to walk out billions in Clinton Foundation money to Switzerland just before the 2016 election.
https://hangthebankers.com/clinton-corruption-10-facts-clinton-foundation/
Money earmarked for Haiti:
https://atlantablackstar.com/2018/01/24/really-happened-clinton-foundation-haiti/
No wonder Gweedeau started up his foundation.

#146 nice on 08.21.20 at 12:42 am

cant find anything wrong with this one. classic garth doom. thats why i come here!

#147 the Jaguar on 08.21.20 at 1:15 am

Jaguar likes this:

“Sometimes we happily debate politics if we don’t have important things to discuss. Neither of us has any need to change the other’s opinion and wouldn’t dream of letting something as insignificant as different perspective affect our relationship.”

-Sounds like two people who are still engaged with one
another. We can always agree to disagree but still love and respect one another……..’

#148 TurnerNation on 08.21.20 at 1:17 am

Just for fun, some text allegedly from the fellow who in late 60’s leaked out his knowledge of the New System (decades, planned).
Check and check?:

“Privately owned housing would become a thing of the past. The cost of housing and financing housing would gradually be made so high that most people couldn’t afford it. People who already owned their houses would be allowed to keep them but as years go by it would be more and more difficult for young people to buy a house.

Young people would more and more become renters, particularly in apartments or condominiums. More and more unsold houses would stand vacant. People just
couldn’t buy them. But the cost of housing would not come down. You’d right away think, well, the vacant house – the price would come down and the people would buy it. But there was some statement to the effect that the price would be held high, even though there were many available, so that free market prices would not operate. People would not be able to buy these and gradually more and more of the population
would be forced into small apartments … small apartments which would not accommodate very many children. Then as the number of real home-owners
diminished they would become a minority. “

#149 Bill on 08.21.20 at 1:29 am

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz

And your fixated on Trump why?
Maybe you would have prefered Hilary….

Worry about your own house first….there plenty to be concerend about.
1st up T2 is by means no leader at all.

#150 Nonplused on 08.21.20 at 1:54 am

#117 SoggyShorts on 08.20.20 at 9:02 pm
#105 Nonplused on 08.20.20 at 8:07 pm
#68 Not 1st on 08.20.20 at 6:06 pm
35 baloney Sandwitch on 08.20.20

Ever try to ask the bank for a loan to buy REITs?

Bank won’t even lend money to buy their own stock but they will use your deposits to do so.

—————————————

Hmmm if you don’t even know what a margin account is I suggest you should let Garth manage all your money.
************************
And if you’re using a margin account at 7% interest to invest I suggest you should let Garth manage all your money.

———————————–

Where did I say I was doing that? I am just saying that if you want to borrow money to buy stocks, you can do that. In and out in the same day if you want. But the interest rate and the stop out terms will reflect what the bank/brokerage thinks are appropriate given the risks.

Or wait, maybe you are saying banks/brokerages should be obligated to lend money to speculators and the Robinhood crew at the same rate they lend to home buyers? I’m trying to compute that but I keep getting a #NUM error.

#151 Nonplused on 08.21.20 at 2:01 am

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.20 at 9:58 pm
@#116 Nonplused = minus

“The problem is that when you call a person a pig you lose a lot of credibility, as it seems you can’t tell 4 legs from 2.”

+++++

Ok ok.
He’s not a groping, grasping, materialistic, narcissistic liar….
He’s a jack-ass.
I’ll leave it up to you to determine if I believe he has 2 legs or 4

—————————

I’ve never met Trump, so I can’t say. But I can tell you at least one person in this comment section would describe you the same way you describe him. That’s the problem with name calling. It doesn’t mean anything and it is a juvenile response. If you want to make a difference talk policies not what socks someone wears. (Yes Garth I am learning, no deletes lately.)

#152 short horses on 08.21.20 at 5:05 am

Hey Garth- are Landlord Tenant Boards (LTBs) staffed by people who should be fired, or is it the LTB legislation that sticks landlords with the Catch-22?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/gta-landlords-struggle-to-evict-man-from-11-luxury-homes-he-s-rented-out-as-rooming-houses-1.5692637

A bit of both, maybe?

#153 Diplomat on 08.21.20 at 6:46 am

Would the 20% decline be weighted towards condos rather than detached? Me thinks so. My hypothesis is that the folks who overextend themselves on real estate are typically buying “the idea of ownership” at the cheapest possible price. Enter condos. For a mere half-a-mil you can tell your friends you’re a homeowner and point your nose up at those unfortunate renters. Then go back to your 400 sq ft germ closet and wonder why you are suffering from chronic insomnia.

#154 MF on 08.21.20 at 7:31 am

139 DON on 08.20.20 at 10:53

Hey Don,

I’m not a realtor or house pumper but this question is fairly easy to answer, I believe.

When you believe your house is gaining thousands of dollars of value every month you are more likely to spend on vacations, renos, and all kinds of junk.

This is the mindset of most people. Doesn’t matter what math Garth and others present to the contrary (where things like expenses and maintenance are taken into account).

This is actually what the “strategy” of the policy makers and central banks is at the core. Keep interest rates at zero, have people borrow more and more, blow up the bubble further, and keep people believing that 1.2 million of debt on a 1.3 million dollar house while working at McDonald’s means you are worth 1.3 million. This is why they are spending billions buying bonds so interest rates are depressed.

It’s an unsustainable strategy. Everyone that counts has sounded the alarm before and pointed out that this never works (eventually circumstance change, the economy slows, interest rates have to rise, average debt becomes too expensive to service etc. Nothing new to us on this blog) and this thing collapses. But no…any whiff of trouble and we double down on low interest rates and bond buying again strategy. Maddening.

Bye, the keep your rent guy, the shift to more radical progressive policies, all of it is a symptom of the worsening inequality. House prices are a huge part of that. The longer we stay at zero interest rates the worse it will get. Interest rates need to rise. They needed to rise in 2014, actually. That’s the ultimate “deferral” here. Someone will have to deal with rising interest rates in the future. Can’t kick the can forever?

MF

#155 M. Towne on 08.21.20 at 8:15 am

So, about that increase in the capital gains rate…

I’ve got a bunch of stuff (mostly preferred ETFs) in my nonregistered account that is down by about $10k. I wasn’t planning to do anything about it–you hold the preferreds for their income–but now I’m wondering if I should sell it all, lock in the capital loss, and then buy it all right back. Then I can use the capital loss against future capital (re)gains.

What say you?

#156 Do we have all the facts on 08.21.20 at 8:19 am

As I see the current situation the Government of Canada is using intervention by the Bank of Canada to keep mortgage interest rates at ridiculously low levels in the hope of increasing demand and maintaining average house prices.

The purchase of $8 billion worth of Canada Mortgage Bonds by the Bank of Canada has definitely stimulated recent demand through lower interest rates. However this current increase in demand has been at the expense of future demand.

As I have pointed out several times in past contributions to this blog the demand for housing is limited by the price of housing and by the incomes of prospective first time buyers.

As average house prices increase due to short term demand based on low interest rates the pool of first time home buyers shrinks. In effect the a Government of Canada has deliberately borrowed from future demand hoping that future immigration will fill in the gap.

This is a gamble that is difficult to support since the immigration of 340,000 new citizens was already baked into the projected demand for housing in 2020. The majority of potential first time home buyers who qualified for a mortgage in 2020 have probably already entered the market.

Once the current mortgage deferral program ends and the 270,000 units currently under construction hit the market the supply of homes will exceed demand resulting in a decline in average prices.

The Government of Canada has run out of stimulus based tools in their tool box and must shift their focus to expanding the Canadian economy and increasing the incomes of potential first time home buyers.

Without future stimulus from the Government of Canada the hope that the average price of homes will continue to increase is very very faint.

#157 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.20 at 8:27 am

@#149 Bill
“And your fixated on Trump why?”

+++++

Actually I just provided a link to a story about a group of staunch , long term Republicans who are determined to get rid of Trump.
Trump , the man who has set the Republicans and their Party back decades.
The knives are out and Trump better watch his back.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN25G2C5

“He’s a despicable human being…….” was one of the better Republican observations in the Reuters article.

Have someone read it to you if you can’t get through seeing the ugly truth without having a stroke

Trump the guy who’s President….unlike Hillary who came in second….. 4 years ago.
Let’s focus on todays President, not what might have been.

All you Trump apologists and defenders came roaring in to defend an obviously deranged, unstable, narcissistic “Leader” (ahahahahaha) of the Free world.

But methinks you all protest too loudly.
Deep down you realize….. Trump is his own worst enemy….every time he opens his pie hole.

I cant wait to see what a gracious LOSER Trump is Nov 3 and the embarrassingly nasty vitriol he spews forth over the next 3 months before Inauguration Day in Jan.
He will blame everyone but himself for his downfall and prove to the world what a nasty, little man he really is.

Feb 1st. The investigations into him and his family will begin.
Count on it.

Kinda like Trudeau after he loses.

#158 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.20 at 8:35 am

@#151 Nonplused = minus
“But I can tell you at least one person in this comment section would describe you the same way you describe him. ”

++++
Re ; Jack-ass
Once again ( as your nom de plume clearly indicates) you can’t add.

I’m sure there about 30 people here who fall into that category.
Group loathing helps people come together in a common bond….dont you think?
It proves the validity of my unpopular observations.

#159 CERBian on 08.21.20 at 8:59 am

CERB will continue an extra month at a time for at least another year

#160 Data Science and Statistics on 08.21.20 at 9:27 am

Interesting article; now is dating back 150 yrs where they had no where near the current medical expertise as we have now. Still think Covid is a hoax?

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/sweden-records-highest-death-tally-in-150-years-in-first-six-months-of-2020/wcm/bccb5aa9-8896-4ee5-9d28-862c399e8aba/

=======================================
I call this article from National Post BS propaganda, it’s easily debunked by looking at official statistics sites, it’s hard for lemmings to do a search that’s a click away though..

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

By extrapolating, by the end of the year it’s going to be on par with 2018 which was a bad year for the good old flu (i.e. 92000-93000 deaths).

The rest is government propaganda and BS to show that Sweden failed, and no they didn’t.

Imbecile govts all over the world tried to prove that they did something, when in fact if they did what Sweden did, they would have achieved exactly the same results as Sweden.

Look at the IQ challenged leaders that lead Australia or New Zealand into disaster.

#161 TurnerNation on 08.21.20 at 9:28 am

#71 Pete from St. Cesaire that’s probably the point. All these non sensical rules all to destroy small business. Most bars, eateries will NOT survive winter. I know a couple already winding down; capacity and movement and mask limits inside. We lost WW3. The enemy controls our every step and breath. Fear did that.

The goal is global communism and dependence upon the State. The State owns our bodies now.

Notes in March, this is the soft kill – we are simply unfunded pension and health care liabilities in this post national state:

“#179 TurnerNation on 03.16.20 at 10:59 pm
GTA rents, prop taxes too high. Small business struggling
Expect empty storefronts and no sense of community.
This shut down could be on purpose. The big dogs will get bigger.
Remaining will be AAPL, UBER, GOOG, SBUX, NFLX, AMZN – everyone at home plugged in listing to the prop. Easy pickings. Well done elite rulers you’ve destroyed the family and now communities.
“Education” or what’s left of it also will go online.
Plugged in 18 hours of the day, radiation beaming. Pop will drop”

#162 Dharma Bum on 08.21.20 at 9:35 am

Home “ownership” is merely a state of mind.

It’s the great Canadian pacifier. That’s right. A soother for all the big babies out there who ignore the real numbers and the reality of over leveraging, just to get that comfy feeling of nesting in an abode that they believe they own.

It’s the ultimate succumbing to emotion. Endorphins vs logic.

The idea of asset diversification, balance, liquidity, and flexibility is too overwhelming for these serotonin addicts to grapple with, so they default to the opiate that is home “ownership” – at their peril.

They bite off way more than they can chew or digest, just to get the euphoric high of “buying” a house. They keep the high going by digging themselves deeper by decorating, renovating, landscaping, etc. They are entranced with the illusion of splendour that their acquisition has bestowed them with, while ignoring the financially fatal side effects that this artificial pleasure is causing them in reality.

Don’t believe me?

https://betterdwelling.com/canadians-are-deferring-mortgage-payments-at-2x-the-rate-of-americans/

Don’t get me wrong. Houses are fine. If you can pay for them. If not, then they are an anchor around your neck.

It’s better not to have all your eggs in one basket. Trite, but true.

Nobody listens.

Tears.

Pity.

#163 Dharma Bum on 08.21.20 at 9:41 am

#158 Crowdedelevatorfartz

Feb 1st. The investigations into him and his family will begin.
Count on it.
——————————————————————–

I agree.

However, it will all be in the form of a new reality TV show. He will cash in BIG by going back to being a network television star.

Think: “The Osbournes”.

Except, it’ll be “The Trumps”, with all the family’s dysfunctional glory laid bare for the tv addicted world to gawk at.

Can’t wait.

#164 JB CONDO DEATH on 08.21.20 at 9:42 am

#157 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.20 at 8:27 am

@#149 Bill
“And your fixated on Trump why?”

+++++

Actually I just provided a link to a story about a group of staunch , long term Republicans who are determined to get rid of Trump.
Trump , the man who has set the Republicans and their Party back decades.
The knives are out and Trump better watch his back.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN25G2C5

“He’s a despicable human being…….” was one of the better Republican observations in the Reuters article.

Have someone read it to you if you can’t get through seeing the ugly truth without having a stroke

Trump the guy who’s President….unlike Hillary who came in second….. 4 years ago.
Let’s focus on todays President, not what might have been.

All you Trump apologists and defenders came roaring in to defend an obviously deranged, unstable, narcissistic “Leader” (ahahahahaha) of the Free world.

But methinks you all protest too loudly.
Deep down you realize….. Trump is his own worst enemy….every time he opens his pie hole.

I cant wait to see what a gracious LOSER Trump is Nov 3 and the embarrassingly nasty vitriol he spews forth over the next 3 months before Inauguration Day in Jan.
He will blame everyone but himself for his downfall and prove to the world what a nasty, little man he really is.

Feb 1st. The investigations into him and his family will begin.
Count on it.

Kinda like Trudeau after he loses.
…………………………………………………………………..
Enough said Mr Smelly Lift! hundo P.

Now if smoking Man was here to add his rather astute views on Trump we could have some balance. Alas poor Smoky is now making peace with his God and I’m sure that trump is the last thing on his mind. Good luck Smoky go and love your family and friends with the time you have left.

#165 millmech on 08.21.20 at 9:45 am

#50
Airbnb shares, the next WeWork!

#166 Sue on 08.21.20 at 9:56 am

Trump is awesome! He is exactly what we need right now with China. Wouldnt marry him or want to be his friend, but im tired of watching China buy up all our resources and infrastructure while not allowing the same investment of their country.

#167 not 1st on 08.21.20 at 10:07 am

I hope crowded can afford a new cable package some day. Imagine getting all your information from CNN everyday. Driving your TDS into orbit.

#168 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.21.20 at 10:27 am

#158 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.20 at 8:35 am
@#151 Nonplused = minus
“But I can tell you at least one person in this comment section would describe you the same way you describe him. ”

++++
Re ; Jack-ass
Once again ( as your nom de plume clearly indicates) you can’t add.

I’m sure there about 30 people here who fall into that category.
Group loathing helps people come together in a common bond….dont you think?
It proves the validity of my unpopular observations.

—–

Nonplussed means to be unsure how to react to a situation… Which is how I feel right now with the conversation today… What a bizarre stance for either of you to fall on your sword for…

There are far worse and far better leaders than the doofus down south… There is an actual country that has concentration camps running, slave labour, forced sterilization and abortions, organ harvesting, and is currently expanding its borders into territories that don’t want them there… I think any real ire should be directed towards that government, and the 24/7 hatefest towards numbskull is a distraction of our own making.

The US did not implode in the last 4 years, in fact it did really well, partly because of the blowhard, but, more likely, regardless of him, and it will continue to do so.

#169 Bill on 08.21.20 at 11:03 am

#164 JB CONDO DEATH

And I bet you bet against Trump in the last?

Im working on dumping T2 and if didnt have Daddy’s name and trust fund Id have waaaaaaay more loot than him. My Dad gave me jack.
He couldn’t run a bubble gum stand.

#170 Westcdn on 08.21.20 at 11:15 am

You would thinks politicians would have figured it out by now. You change tax policy and people’s behavior will change too. Many economists get it wrong too.

#171 Bill on 08.21.20 at 11:17 am

As Ive said our PM is guided by the CCP policies.
It is disturbing the levels he will go to support them or not call them out. Same diff.
As in Huawei. I put in millions of dollars of the cell equipment in for the big Telcos…. Its called a backdoor. CCP fully spys and steals our technologies to further their adjenda….but T2 knows this or hes a bigger nitwit than I thought.
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/despite-the-warnings/

#172 JB CONDO DEATH on 08.21.20 at 11:21 am

#169 Bill on 08.21.20 at 11:03 am

#164 JB CONDO DEATH

And I bet you bet against Trump in the last?

Im working on dumping T2 and if didnt have Daddy’s name and trust fund Id have waaaaaaay more loot than him. My Dad gave me jack.
He couldn’t run a bubble gum stand.
………………………………………………………………..
I don’t bet but I never thought that America was that whacked and desperate that they would elect a fraud.

#173 Ronaldo on 08.21.20 at 11:40 am

#144 Don G.

The folks I know in Calgary make money on hard work , saving and investing. Housing not so much. Maybe the ROC should give hard work a go. Doubt it though.
—————————————————————-
Funny you say that because my sons work takes him to Calgary where the bulk of his earnings are made. And he works really hard as do his employees. Real estate is by no means how he’s made his fortune. It’s been based on good old fashioned hard work. I remember visiting with him on the job a couple years back and he introduced me to one of his youger employees as, “this is the man that taught me what hard work is all about”. They were taught at a young age that in this world there is no free lunch. But again, that was before Cerb.

#174 Bill on 08.21.20 at 11:40 am

#172 JB CONDO DEATH

And who isn’t?
The bushes?
Clinton crimnal Foundation?
Obama….he was the WORST for Kanada.
I made my millions by NOT following the maistream. 95% bunk.
I have other sources that are worthy.

#175 DON on 08.21.20 at 1:05 pm

167 not 1st on 08.21.20 at 10:07 am
I hope crowded can afford a new cable package some day. Imagine getting all your information from CNN everyday.

***********

Untrue statement:

Go back and look at the links he has posted….from various news sources over the years. And he vets his sources.

@crowded and nonplused
it hurts me deeply to see two likeminded chaps bicker over the small stuff.

@MF
Good answers.

All those RVs, boats, quads, vacations etc are most likely being purchased with home equity loans and perhaps pooled CERB among some families.

like ‘Do we have all the facts’ states, demand is being pulled forward on a bunch of products especially personal computing devices. What does that leave for future purchases.

@JB
Haven’t heard from Smoking Man in a while.

Shout out to Smoking Man

How you doing?

#176 Lorne on 08.21.20 at 1:43 pm

#136 DON on 08.20.20 at 10:41 pm
Like Trump or hate him…all the Dems can come up with is Biden. Of all the good and deserving Americans, Biden was their leading choice. For the people by the People.

Nice that Biden’s wife needed to come out in is defense…where was Mr. Biden?

Seems odd…no?
……..
Well, yes I do hate Trump, but to parrot you “all the GOP can come up with is Trump’?

#177 John Doe on 08.21.20 at 3:43 pm

Zero confidence that JT & Freeland (or any of the opposition) will level the playing field anytime soon.

They all understand that 75% of “voters” own homes. Ergo… nobody is going to do anything that will harm homeowners.

I see mortgage amortizations “built to fit” for any stressed homeowner, if they agree to not sell.

Anyone who agrees will hand their home to their lender should they change their minds or be forced to sell. They will also eat any loss to the bank, plus all the costs lenders face to get the home ready to sell (and they add up quickly).

Homes will then be sold when the lender sees fit. Meaning… there will be no flood of houses hitting the market. No major price erosion. They will do literally anything to save home owners.

Other than this little negative, you will be able to “negotiate” any length of term to suit your cash flow. Be that massive debt, just a crappy job, unemployment or welfare. 50 or 60 year mortgages with super low payments could be yours!

So… get out there and buy that 5% down monster house with JT taking a 10% stake on the backs of Canadian taxpayers.

Good times are here to stay!!!

Nobody will touch homeowners as they are the voting block everyone covets. Power to the people!!! LOL

#178 DON on 08.21.20 at 4:47 pm

#176 Lorne on 08.21.20 at 1:43 pm
#136 DON on 08.20.20 at 10:41 pm
Like Trump or hate him…all the Dems can come up with is Biden. Of all the good and deserving Americans, Biden was their leading choice. For the people by the People.

Nice that Biden’s wife needed to come out in is defense…where was Mr. Biden?

Seems odd…no?
……..
Well, yes I do hate Trump, but to parrot you “all the GOP can come up with is Trump’?
**************

You are correct, it does work both ways. I have no skin in the game of US Politics other than how it affects the world and Canada. Logic and common good over partisanship

But if i remember correctly in the last election Trump wasn’t the GOP first, second or third pick. Someone must have voted for him. I would note fot Trump or Biden. In the US politics has been Hollywoodized and it’s all about perception.

The US campaign is starting to get nasty and is involving people in the background on both sides. The mud slinging and political voodo are starting to take off and they are playing a game that Trump excels at. Right now the DEMs and GOPs are sitting in congress bickering over how they can help main street America…Trump extends benefits. Its all about perception 90 days before the election, especially in the US.

Just trying to figure it all out.

#179 VicPaul on 08.22.20 at 1:59 am

#176 Lorne on 08.21.20 at 1:43 pm
#136 DON on 08.20.20 at 10:41 pm
Like Trump or hate him…all the Dems can come up with is Biden. Of all the good and deserving Americans, Biden was their leading choice. For the people by the People.

Nice that Biden’s wife needed to come out in is defense…where was Mr. Biden?

Seems odd…no?
……..
Well, yes I do hate Trump, but to parrot you “all the GOP can come up with is Trump’?

*********

Uh, yeah Lorne – he’s the incumbent.

Only once, ever, did an elected incumbent not get his party’s nomination – it was a Democrat in 1852 – Franklin Pierce was such a strong supporter of slavery that the progressive people of America of 1852 demanded a new candidate – James Buchanan. Apparently, this social situation was a motivation for the formation of the Republican party.

1852 Democratic President Pierce – screaming racist.
In direct response, the Republican Party is created by the anti-slavery sentiment of Northerners.

Oh, the irony – you can’t make this stuff up.

M56BC

#180 Truth on 08.22.20 at 2:48 am

Blog Dogs

Obviously we need to inundate whoever awards the order of Canada.