The death of oil?

RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

.

Contrary to what Green Party leader, Elizabeth May recently said, oil is not dead! Mrs. May was quite frank in her outlook for oil and the Canadian energy sector, recently stating, “My heart bleeds for people who believe the sector is going to come back. It’s not.” And in her view, “Oil is dead.”

This flippant and in my opinion, silly thing to say, shows little compassion and support to the nearly 300,000 Canadians directly employed within the sector and the countless more indirectly benefitting. Nor does it recognize that oil and gas (O&G) represents our largest export at $132 billion (2018), that it contributes 10% to our total GDP and the $14 billion in annual revenues to the Canadian government. May’s comments really struck a chord with me, so today I provide my rebuttal to this doomsday view of oil and why Canada should continue to develop our estimated 170 billion barrels of oil reserves rather than letting the sector wither and die as May proposes.

Let me preface today’s blog post by stating that I am believer in climate change, that human activity through the consumption of fossil fuels is contributing to global warming, and that we should try to minimize the impacts of O&G exploration on our environment and planet through government regulations and new technologies. While this may seem incongruent with my earlier statements, at the end of the day I’m a pragmatist and realist, so I believe there should be a balance to both energy production and the environment. Let me explain.

First, I believe May and other environmentalists focus too much on supply (i.e., production) and not enough on demand. The simple fact is the world consumes roughly 95 million barrels per day (bls/day) of oil alone and this is forecasted to rise to 105 mln bls/day by 2030, according to the IEA. Yes the IEA then expects oil consumption to plateau around that time and then decline, but it will be gradual, likely taking decades.

Whether we like it or not, oil and other petroleum products are an integral part of our lives and economy. This includes transportation fuels like gasoline and jet fuel, heating oil and electricity generation, the petrochemical industry where petroleum is used as a raw material for thousands of different household products like clothing, electronics, and agricultural products. To get off oil quickly would have devastating impacts on our economy, our standard of living and overall way of life.

Not sure about you but I like traveling, the freedom from driving my car (Note: not a Porsche!), ripping golf balls down the fairway, buying some new duds and upgrading to the latest iPhone so I can more quickly respond to blog comments. Well, the last part’s a lie but you get my drift.

Oil and petroleum products are ubiquitous and an absolute necessity in our daily lives. This is critically why the death of oil has been greatly exaggerated by May and other environmentalists.

Global Oil Demand Continues to Rise

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Second, May and others believe that oil and fossil fuels will be replaced by renewables like solar, wind and geo-thermal. While these areas will continue to see robust growth and over time will play a bigger role in our energy consumption, it will likely take decades before oil is largely replaced by these new energy sources.

British Petroleum (BP) publishes an annual report on world energy trends and it’s clear from this report how prominent fossil fuels are in meeting our global energy needs. Currently, fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) make up 85% of our total energy consumption, with nuclear, hydroelectric and renewables making up 4%, 6.5%, and 5%, respectively. So renewables make up only 11% of our total energy consumption. Looking at just wind and solar, they represent a paltry 2% and 0.7%, respectively.

I’m from Windsor, ON and when I drive home to see the folks I see hundreds of wind turbines across Essex County, which personally I think is a great thing (despite the way it was handled by our previous Ontario governments). But it’s clear from these statistics that renewable sources make up a small percentage of our energy consumption and while these areas will see the highest growth, it will still take decades before these sources replace fossil fuels.

World Energy Consumption by Fuel Type

Source: BP 2018 Statistical Review of World Energy 2018

What about electric vehicles (EV)?

While Tesla shares continue to rally to new dizzying heights, electric vehicles currently make up a minuscule amount of global car sales. Last year global electric vehicle sales rose to 2.1 million units, which represents just 2.6% of global auto sales. There are a number of different forecasts for EV sales but even the most aggressive ones have EV sales at 20% of global auto sales by 2030. Sure the growth is phenomenal, but EV sales will continue to represent a small fraction of global sales in large part due to their higher upfront costs (EVs average selling price is $55,000 versus $36,000 for a regular gas powered car).

The other huge obstacle to EVs and them getting a wider adoption are the batteries, which requires massive mining of nickel, cobalt and lithium. While EVs cut carbon emissions, they are not without other environmental consequences. For example, it is estimated that for every ton of lithium produced, an equivalent ton of carbon dioxide is created. And nickel is ranked as the eight worst metal to mine in terms of pollution and global warming.

Lastly, a huge reason why we’ve become a fossil fueled planet, which will likely continue for some years to come, is the high energy density of oil and natural gas relative to other energy sources. Energy density measures the amount of energy that can be stored in a given mass or volume, and is one way to compare different energy sources output.

Below is an interesting table that puts different energy sources like oil, natural gas, solar and wind on a comparable scale and it shows how much more energy you get from oil or natural gas compared to solar or wind. Essentially, oil and natural gas provide a “bigger bang for your buck” versus other renewable sources at present.

Energy Density

Source: Bradley Layton, A Comparison of Energy Densities

When you put it all together – future oil demand, a low percentage of renewables and electric vehicles, the higher energy density of oil and gas – I fail to see how oil and other fossil fuels will quickly be replaced by renewables and most certainly that oil is far from dead, as May recently proclaimed.

If Canada tomorrow where to put a moratorium on oil production to help combat climate change, the US, OPEC or Russia would just step in and replace those 4 to 5 million barrels. In this case, nothing would change for oil demand and consumption and all we would do is destroy Alberta and our overall economy while doing nothing for addressing climate change. Given all this we should continue to treat that resource as the crown jewel that it is.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

184 comments ↓

#1 Stone on 08.15.20 at 11:13 am

Not sure about you but I like traveling, the freedom from driving my car (Note: not a Porsche!)

———

Well duh! We all know you drive a hot pink lambo.

#2 SCOOBY DOO on 08.15.20 at 11:16 am

Please support Canadian Oil n Gas.

Get this waste of a government and our tax dollars out of office.

They better not come with their hands out looking for royalty cheques from this industry.

#3 Steve on 08.15.20 at 11:21 am

Great article. We need to get our leaders to be more pragmatic, solar and wind will not save us. We need technology to capture CO2, we need to invest in newest nuclear power( molten salt reactor and small modular reactors). Hopefully someone develops the technology and we will buy it.

#4 Sail Away on 08.15.20 at 11:24 am

Good article.

Sometimes, when chillaxing amongst the woke, I enjoy saying things like, ‘Yes, well, I drive an electric.’

While also holding Suncor, Occidental, Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell, etc. And tobacco companies. It pays, it stays.

#5 trex on 08.15.20 at 11:24 am

The reality that we continue to import oil into Eastern Canada from corupt and despotic foreign countries instead of simply building an eastern bound pipeline from Alberta boggles the mind. Why on earth we we not provide those oilpatch jobs to local, tax paying Canadians? Canada has some of the strictist environmental and saftey regulations on the planet.
Nigeria, Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia……not so much.

#6 Yukon Elvis on 08.15.20 at 11:27 am

Nailed it.

#7 TurnerNation on 08.15.20 at 11:27 am

Licence plate seen on a Tesla in ON: PastGas
(nice double entendre?)

……..
Again the biggest risk of buying property now is the real specter of looming global communism. They seem poised to shut down the USA for a spell in the Fall.
Harvest season: they are coming for our assets.
(When the World Trade Centres fell did this marks the end of USA as the center of world trade?)

People forget: This year the global government via local reps shut down capitalism; then took away the property rights of landlords to evict tenants; why? Because they took over the economy. Cuba much?
-It’s in their buzz words: Income Equality really means all in poverty: UBI. Happy now? We are to be serfs.
-Employment Equality means: hire and pay people regardless of their qualifications or even output. All gets jobs under communism.

How could this play out – As predicted in January:

#6 TurnerNation on 01.12.20 at 2:20 pm
Things will speed up SO fast in 2020-2021 to roll out the plans. Nobody will come to your door and take away your property no. They’ll just take 5-10% of its value away in Tax each year, and empty home tax, land transfer tax, capital gains on sales taxes (stay tuned!), carbon taxes. In a down market this would prove fatal.

…….
Weekend bonus – by the way, to stay sane realize that every ‘news’ story of 2020 is fake…makes so much more sense this way.

Why all the non-sensical rules: Masks to de-humanize and remove smiles; yet still 6 feet away, line up as if in kindergarten; and limited capacity in stores; and stand on your Mark on the floor in order to transact commerce. To break us into the New System. Submit, do not ask questions:

“Political correctness is communist propaganda writ small. In my study of communist societies, I came to the conclusion that the purpose of communist propaganda was not to persuade or convince, not to inform, ***but to humiliate***; and therefore, the less it corresponded to reality the better. When people are forced to remain silent when they are being told the most obvious lies, or even worse when they are forced to repeat the lies themselves, they lose once and for all their sense of probity. To assent to obvious lies is in some small way to become evil oneself. One’s standing to resist anything is thus eroded, and even destroyed. A society of emasculated liars is easy to control. I think if you examine political correctness, it has the same effect and is intended to.”
― Theodore Dalrymple
[emphasis added]

#8 WhereToNow on 08.15.20 at 11:34 am

Yes my research agrees with your post today. I would love for the “Green” energy folks to see a time lapse drone footage of the environmental devastation and fossil fuel usage happening at the Site C dam on the Peace River. The amount of lost habitat and flooding of land to occur just never seems to register with the Green folks, they just see an electrical plug in and a cord and think all is well in Hydro electricity ???

#9 jal on 08.15.20 at 11:48 am

Keep the oil home.
Refine the oil home.
Manufacture products from oil home.
Export the finished products.

#10 Dave on 08.15.20 at 11:51 am

Trudeau know this but spins a bs line for not building a pipeline.

Millions suffer because of his politics.

#11 brad mcdougall on 08.15.20 at 11:52 am

Great post. May should do a little research before she voices her opinions. Canadians do need to realize any oil production cuts in Canada result in production increases in the US and other countries. Some having poor environmental track records.

#12 Millennial 1%er on 08.15.20 at 11:54 am

“Don’t build the pipelines!” says Margaret Shinkelbottoms, an arts major graduate who drove to the protest, wears clothes woven with plastic products, and who ate delivery for lunch.

#13 scifoodguy on 08.15.20 at 11:57 am

You want to know the best part? Climate cycles and cycles turn down as well as up. We’re doing that now and look forward to several decades of colder temperatures and more extreme weather in terms of snowfalls, shorter grow seasons, short summers, longer winters etc. Hope Ms. May has a good broom to brush off her solar panels and the blades on her windmill (oh, the vision!). Best internet documentation at the moment for countering the “we’re gonna fry” alarmists is: https://electroverse.net Give it a look.

#14 John on 08.15.20 at 12:01 pm

Ryan, you make some good arguments. Unfortunately, you’re only talking about one side of the argument. First you say that you’re “a believer in climate change.” Then you say “To get off oil quickly would have devastating impacts on our economy, our standard of living and overall way of life.” The problem with these two statements is that climate change is happening, and according to the thousands of scientists who support the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the impacts of rapidly increasing climate change will dwarf the “devastating” impacts of switching off oil suddenly. Both facts needs to be considered in this discussion. I don’t disagree with you, I just wish those who bring up this topic speak to both sides of the discussion. Thanks for all your otherwise helpful advice.

John in Vancouver

#15 Mike on 08.15.20 at 12:06 pm

The entire premise of the elite is a “Green New Deal”, meaning that with COVID, they want to restart the global economy only under the auspices of green energy. The statements by Gates, Soros, et. al are on board with destroying the world economy to achieve their utopia.

Claus Schwab, founder and CEO of the World Economic Forum, stated the following:

“The pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, re-imagine and reset our world”

COVID has now become a political tool instead of a medical challenge. The damage these fools have done to the economy has yet to be fully realized.

#16 Divv on 08.15.20 at 12:08 pm

Well written, Ryan. It’s refreshing to read a well researched article that focuses on fact-based research, with science/supply/demand all getting their moment.

It seems that folks in Canada are awful quick to position O+G as a supply-side problem, but the driver is global demand [which they are a part of]. At the end of the day, supply will continue to meet demand for non-renewables, and it is heartbreaking that so many Canadians are dumb enough to believe that a moratorium on oil production [to help combat climate change] is somehow Canada’s cross to bear. It would be well advised for everyone to take note of their own efforts, and begin to make a difference by reducing their own demand/O+G intake – walk or bike to buy groceries, take transit to get around, use only candles at nighttime, utilize sleeping bags so you don’t need heat, walk around naked because you now understand how clothing is made etc. [jokes y’all]. In all seriousness, thanks for creating a discussion that is rooted in fact and science. Good weekend, all.

#17 Post on 08.15.20 at 12:17 pm

“ While EVs cut carbon emissions, they are not without other environmental consequences”
———————
Let’s not forget that the casing of the batteries are plastic. The interiors are mostly plastic. The steel production. The shipping of the parts and finished cars. And most of the electricity used to charge the batteries are from….

But the story sounds great right?

#18 Keith on 08.15.20 at 12:20 pm

Oil and gas, is reckoned to be 5.9% of GDP according to energy.ca. I’ve never seen 10%, all forms of energy including hydro are about 8%. I wonder where your number comes from.

The people who call for an end to oil and gas are wrong, global demand has increased about 1.1% per year over the last thirty years and alternatives have serious issues to overcome, viable large scale or widely distributed storage for a start. It’s interesting to note that Berkshire Hathaway has an energy company that has achieved self sufficiency in wind energy in Idaho, at a lower price than any of its competitors, which means that green energy will be viable – some day. You can’t stop progress.

I find the arguments on both sides tend to depart from reality. I’m surprised to see a number of only 14 billion in federal revenue, I think that that number is pretty low. The loss of revenue during industry downturns has to be a lot higher than that. I do take issue with industry cheerleaders who claim that every hospital, every school and indeed every social program in Canada is financed by oil and gas revenue. It’s a core industry, but there are others. What is the timeline on alternatives? One side says build it now, the other says 75 years minimum. Unsolvable debate.

We might as well make the most of this resource, as long as we can, in the most responsible way possible while investing heavily in alternatives. We are lucky to have a wealth of energy in our back yard, sad that politics gets in the way.

https://energynow.ca/2020/04/fueling-canadas-economy-how-canadas-oil-and-gas-industry-compares-to-other-major-sectors-cec/

#19 technical analysis? on 08.15.20 at 12:27 pm

too bad Canada is run by a bunch of idiots. Norway had some brains. set up a fund with their oil revenues and now they are technically debt free. $1 Trillion.. there to grow and be used to fund the future of Norway. in canada, we just flushed it down a toilet.

#20 PBrasseur on 08.15.20 at 12:27 pm

Canada killing its own oil industry is shameful beyond belief. And I don’t think it can be revived.

#21 Damifino on 08.15.20 at 12:28 pm

Absolutely brilliant Ryan. I can’t thank you enough for your courage in speaking factually to the air-headed Elizabeth May and her ilk. She is best suited to fire-walking on the solstice with Greta on Saltspring Island. Thankfully, she’s now fading into well earned obscurity.

I take issue with only a small part of your post. Realistically, solar and wind are not going to play any significant role going forward. Modern society will not maintain by a switch from higher to lower density forms of energy (the unreliables). I sense you paying lip service to that concept. It’s quite unnecessary.

Coal is great when it replaces wood and biomass but not when used instead of natural gas. Natural gas is great when it replaces coal but not when it replaces nuclear power.

We can’t go back to less dense forms of energy. All that does is hugely increase the area of the planet devoted to inefficient power production which in turn brings its own negative consequences.

It will be fossil fuels for decades yet while we find a way to undo the unfortunate historical criminalization of nuclear energy. Doing so will actually decrease the so-called ‘impact’ we humans are having.

I love Human Impact. Of course we’re having impact. Impact is what’s changed the world form a place that’s naturally dangerous and deficient to an unnaturally safe and plentiful home. Energy did that. Lots and lots of very dense energy harnessed by human ingenuity freed from the dictates of zealous anti-humanists.

It’s time for childish thinkers to grow up and accept facts. Self aggrandizing cultural pop heroes could never fly to exotic locales to be openly virtuous without the jet fuel and technology brought to them by copious use of dense energy. (I grow so weary of them).

We in the west wish for the third world to remain agrarian. We’d like to deny them a path to modern power grids we take for granted in advanced nations. We want them to chop wood and carry water and maybe power a single lamp at night with a solar cell and battery. It’s cynical beyond belief that we swim in nearly limitless fossil fueled power (and all the benefit and comfort it brings) while expecting the African continent, for example, to compensate for our so-called sins of excess.

Thankfully, physics will trump politics in the long run. That’s why I don’t worry much about people like Elizabeth May, David Suzuki and every other apocalyptic prognosticator building cottage industries from the religion of impending doom.

#22 mark on 08.15.20 at 12:33 pm

Ryan,
Good article thank you. What % of a B&D portfolio would you give to energy oil & gas sector, I caught you on BNN awhile ago and you seemed luke warm on energy stocks and ETF’s.
Can you clarify, have good weekend all.

#23 Calvin Quintal on 08.15.20 at 12:34 pm

I am disappointed Ryan that you did not look at the big picture. The environment and climate change is the multi decade tool of socialism, communism and the nanny state, leftists, globalists from the green party to liberals, democrats, left, UN etc. and total control over our lives.

The green in green party is about green, money and green envious of others and not about making the environment cleaner, better etc. This is going on from at least the 60’s, 70’s to today and going into the future.

#24 Don Guillermo on 08.15.20 at 12:34 pm

Great post Ryan.

“First, I believe May and other environmentalists focus too much on supply (i.e., production) and not enough on demand.”

Absolutely … the Well-to-wheels analogy supports this hands down.

A lady I know from Nanaimo is always lecturing on dirty Alberta oil and raves about her eMay. She just announced on Facebook she’s buying a motorhome.
***************************************
#72 drongo on 08.14.20 at 9:31 pm

It is a local story. similar scenarios playout across america on a daily basis. check out the ‘read more’ section at the end of the article. america is one F’d up country. We should keep the border closed permanently lol
———————————————————-
It WAS only considered a local story by MSM because of their racist agendas. If the race of the victim and the perp was reversed the riots, looting and violence across North America and Europe would have gone off the charts again and you know this.

As Sail Away says “Such intellectually dishonest reporting”.

******************************************
#80 the Jaguar on 08.14.20 at 11:34 pm
@#69 Don Guillermo on 08.14.20 at 9:21 pm

This is the tip of the iceberg. Unprecedented violence in the USA which mainstream media is not reporting on…look at the nightly death toll and looting and burning going on in Chicago as an example. Apparently BL don’t matter in Chicago. And yet Calgary on the financial ropes can find $120,000 to produce 4 BLM murals in the city. Nenshi says ‘“I couldn’t care less what you think about that mural..’. We are circling the drain. The storm clouds are bigger and darker than ever before
_________________________________________

Nenshi is so out of touch and way past his due date.

Jag … you should give Mazatlán a try. Most people are pleasantly surprised. Direct flights from YYC are scheduled to resume in early November. We’re booked.

Here’s a video of one my favorite local bands. They play every Thursday night on a beautiful colonial street corner nearby.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yttdlzK3GuY

#25 looking up on 08.15.20 at 12:40 pm

Hi Ryan,

Thanks for the post today. I know this is off topic but I’ve never gotten a definitive answer to this question and I know you’re very knowledgeable with REITS so I thought I’d ask.

The RIETS have corrected substantially and many are still 30% or so below their peak. However apartments, commercial real estate etc. haven’t corrected at all. If REITS are composed of commercial, apartments etc. why have REITS corrected and actual commercial real estate has not?

#26 ki on 08.15.20 at 12:45 pm

Well, you really are opening a can of worms! Let’s take apart (some, I don’t have all day) your arguments. Yes, fossils fuels supply most of the current energy and have been growing since the 19th century when we weened ourselves off whale oil as a liquid fuel for lamps. But as you and others from this blog know about confirmation bias -we all favour ideas that confirm to our existing beliefs and what we think we know, and of course the ‘what goes up always goes up” bias, which you have clearly displayed in your posting. There is another bias that very common in this global climate change debate, that of cherry picking data or sources of bias data. For example, your reference to the IEA and its statement that it “expects oil consumption to plateau around that time and then decline, but it will be gradual, likely taking decades.” I would like to point out one must be careful of the source of the data . Are you aware that the mission statement of the IEA in part states , “The IEA was created in 1974 to help co-ordinate a collective response to major disruptions in the supply of oil.“ It further states in its criteria for country membership in the IEA that, A candidate country to the IEA must be a member country of the OECD. In addition, it must demonstrate several requirements. These are: Crude oil and/or product reserves equivalent to 90 days of the previous year’s net imports, to which the government has immediate access (even if it does not own them directly) and could be used to address disruptions to global oil supply;” There are several other criteria all dealing with fossil fuels but no mention of renewable energy. In other words the IEA has a vested interest in fossil fuels and its promotion. Would you trust a doctor to give unbiased health advice if they are paid by the pharmacy?
You say, “To get off oil quickly would have devastating impacts on our economy, our standard of living and overall way of life.” I would agree and the most important word in your sentence is ‘quickly’. If we stopped tomorrow consuming all fossil fuels it would be very bad but that is not how it would happen, it will take time. Yes, decades but only a few at most, and the excuse we can’t move away from CO2 and methane producing energy sources because it would be bad would not follow if we move quickly to renewables. Remember the economy already says that coal is uneconomic in most cases. Wind and solar are low cost alternatives in many circumstances. Why spend billions for new oil pipelines (which has lifetimes of 50 years or more) and oil sands production where the energy extracted almost equals the energy cost in extraction and production of a finished product. Are we mad!
Your table of Energy Density is a total red herring. Wind and solar is producing energy each and day its not a container of some volume of energy. Apple and orange comparison!

#27 Blobby on 08.15.20 at 12:53 pm

@#10 Dave : “ Trudeau know this but spins a bs line for not building a pipeline.

Millions suffer because of his politics.”

Why do Albertans always do this? There’s a lot of flaws in
Trudeau, but last time I checked he bought the pipeline to make sure it got built to keep Albertans happy… but yet, cons somehow seem to want to twist this into him somehow blocking the pipeline?

W…T..A…F?

Selective memory? Lack of understanding? Too much fox?

#28 joblo on 08.15.20 at 12:54 pm

#5 trex on 08.15.20 at 11:24 am
Maybe this helps unboggle your mind.
Who knows what other deals? go on. Shipping contracts etc etc

https://nbmediacoop.org/2019/07/03/what-is-the-link-between-irving-oil-saudi-arms-and-the-war-in-yemen/

#29 drongo on 08.15.20 at 1:09 pm

@#19 technical analysis? on 08.15.20 at 12:27 pm
too bad Canada is run by a bunch of idiots. Norway had some brains. set up a fund with their oil revenues and now they are technically debt free. $1 Trillion.. there to grow and be used to fund the future of Norway. in canada, we just flushed it down a toilet.
—————————————————

good ole privatization strikes again.

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.15.20 at 1:11 pm

@#8 Where to
“I would love for the “Green” energy folks to see a time lapse drone footage of the environmental devastation and fossil fuel usage happening at the Site C dam on the Peace River. ”

+++

Yep.
Site “C” ( C is for Cash).
A massive earthen dam built on unsuitable clay soil that was rejected years ago. ( Never tell an engineer something is impossible).
In a seismically active area ( 6500 minor quakes in one year due to fracking)

https://thetyee.ca/News/2020/08/13/Quakes-Fracking-Site-C-Dam-Region/

Slope slide occuring all around it.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/slide-near-site-c-dam-cuts-road-prompts-limited-evacuation-1.4117260

Billions over budget.

https://thenarwhal.ca/bc-hydro-site-c-dam-covid-19-report-delay/

(Muskrat Falls and Newfoundland’s looming bankruptcy come to mind…..)
Original estimate to build $6.6 billion…..
Now rumors are kicking around numbers like $14 billion.

A “green”(cash) legacy if there ever was one.
The Liberals started it with a white wash sham of “environmental public hearings” that were so biased even the panel members quit out of disgusted embarrassment.
Next up the NDP, who neede those union votes just as much as the unions needed the Site C jobs…….

Everyone is to blame and they will all wear it.

#31 technical analysis? on 08.15.20 at 1:16 pm

isn’t it amazing that Buffett is buying a fairly large stake in Barrick? what do the naysayers have to say now?

#32 SoggyShorts on 08.15.20 at 1:20 pm

#14 John on 08.15.20 at 12:01 pm
the impacts of rapidly increasing climate change will dwarf the “devastating” impacts of switching off oil suddenly.
*******************************
The problem with this is that one has an answer while the other does not.
♦If we turn off oil we know exactly what we’ll lose- All of the things Ryan listed that are made from it(and more with a domino effect of job loss) in exchange for zero gain, because as Ryan said others will simply increase production to make up the difference.
The solution? Don’t turn off oil.
♦If we don’t turn off the oil the environment/climate will continue to change at an increased pace cause both known and unknown problems.
The solution? Other than fantasy scenarios where every nation makes the switch together on both consumption and production sides, there isn’t one. Slow and steady progress, fingers crossed for tech to outpace pollution.
Or
Snowpiercer.

#33 cewgr1 on 08.15.20 at 1:22 pm

While I agree with your thought regarding fossil fuel, I have to say that oil and gas investors in Canada have capitulated to the nutbar lefty’s.
Why would anyone invest in Canadian oil, the federal government is openly hostile to it, all of the resource is landlocked, and we cannot get infrastructure built.
As far as elizabeth may, I am always pleasantly surprised when she can put the jack down long enough to make a statement

#34 drongo on 08.15.20 at 1:33 pm

@#33 cewgr1 on 08.15.20 at 1:22 pm

Why would anyone invest in Canadian oil
—————

the world is awash in cheap oil.
extracting Canadian oil is too expensive.

#35 Don Guillermo on 08.15.20 at 1:33 pm

#27 Blobby on 08.15.20 at 12:53 pm
@#10 Dave : “ Trudeau know this but spins a bs line for not building a pipeline.

Millions suffer because of his politics.”

Why do Albertans always do this? There’s a lot of flaws in
Trudeau, but last time I checked he bought the pipeline to make sure it got built to keep Albertans happy… but yet, cons somehow seem to want to twist this into him somehow blocking the pipeline?

W…T..A…F?

Selective memory? Lack of understanding? Too much fox?
*****************************************

He bought the pipeline because the private company that was intending to build it with their own money (not yours) bolted out of Canada after lawless protests and never ending reviews and bureaucracy supported by this juvenile federal government. Terrible politics and at a huge costs to the Canadian taxpayer.

Selective memory? Lack of understanding? Too much CBC?

#36 Andrew on 08.15.20 at 1:39 pm

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-12-06/why-bitcoin-mining-is-being-touted-as-a-solution-to-gas-flaring

I’ll just drop this here

#37 mike from mtl on 08.15.20 at 1:44 pm

I agree totally, o&g are not going anywhere especially petrochemicals – due to c19 plastics and single-use are now trendy again.

Though nationally we need to have a real talk about our own o&g sector, seems like some sort of political collusion to keep the status quo of selling crude dirt cheap to the Americans and nothing outside that.

Oilberta was right, sending profits during the good times to welfare queen QC and newfie bums’ blackhole was incredibly short sighted. Now we’re all up the creek with no paddle.

To be fair our crude is expensive to extract to useable end products in the bast of times. Regardless of your thoughts on the ethical nature of KSA, their product is by far cheaper. Nobody will pay even a cent / L more given a choice and we all know that.

Exacting anything here or abroad is far from “carbon neutral”, wood, Al, Cu, Fe, Au, Ag, and so on. The greenies tend to ignore that.

If there was not such a political cloud surrounding o&g this would be a non-issue.

#38 S.O on 08.15.20 at 1:44 pm

There are over three thousand items that are made of oil that can’t be replaced, not to mention electric cars have a worse carbon foot print than a basic gas car when you take into account that batteries are hazardous waste, with some countries still using coal for hydro.

#39 Don Guillermo on 08.15.20 at 1:47 pm

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.15.20 at 1:11 pm

Billions over budget.

https://thenarwhal.ca/bc-hydro-site-c-dam-covid-19-report-delay/

(Muskrat Falls and Newfoundland’s looming bankruptcy come to mind…..)
Original estimate to build $6.6 billion…..
Now rumors are kicking around numbers like $14 billion
************************************

… and that’s when a Billion dollars was a lot of money. Since Trudeau pranced onto the scene you have to say Trillions before anybody blinks.

#40 Brian Ripley on 08.15.20 at 1:50 pm

“To assent to obvious lies is in some small way to become evil oneself.” #7 TurnerNation on 08.15.20 at 11:27 am quoting Theodore Dalrymple

This has certainly happened in the U.S. with ‘Moscow’ Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party who have swallowed Donald Trump whole. They are set on abandoning democracy as an ideal in favour of rule by a oligarchic minority.

In 2013 only 1.8% of Alberta employees earned minimum wage; by 1H 2019 9.2% did (StatCan item SEP 2019) from my Employment rate chart: http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html#Rate

#41 Dave From Fernie on 08.15.20 at 1:55 pm

Great article today, wish the rest of the global warmers could have such an objective perspective.

#42 ain't life rand on 08.15.20 at 1:55 pm

@#35 Don Guillermo on 08.15.20 at 1:33 pm
#27 Blobby on 08.15.20 at 12:53 pm
@#10 Dave : “ Trudeau know this but spins a bs line for not building a pipeline.

Millions suffer because of his politics.”

Why do Albertans always do this? There’s a lot of flaws in
Trudeau, but last time I checked he bought the pipeline to make sure it got built to keep Albertans happy… but yet, cons somehow seem to want to twist this into him somehow blocking the pipeline?

W…T..A…F?

Selective memory? Lack of understanding? Too much fox?
*****************************************

He bought the pipeline because the private company that was intending to build it with their own money (not yours) bolted out of Canada after lawless protests and never ending reviews and bureaucracy supported by this juvenile federal government. Terrible politics and at a huge costs to the Canadian taxpayer.

Selective memory? Lack of understanding? Too much CBC?

/////////////

lololo, both you dopes are so cemented in your own myopic views. its never as black and white as your ilk thinks it is.

#43 ain't life rand on 08.15.20 at 1:57 pm

@#31 technical analysis? on 08.15.20 at 1:16 pm
isn’t it amazing that Buffett is buying a fairly large stake in Barrick? what do the naysayers have to say now?

a good mining co, so what?

#44 EG on 08.15.20 at 1:57 pm

I guess few have heard of Tony Seba . Also Blowout by Rachel Maddow . Tony is right on the money and the electrification happening has nothing to do with oil/fossil methane (cute name) . It’s about efficiency. Rachel’s book is about the ins and outs of the oil industry . It’ll turn your stomach.

#45 Axehead on 08.15.20 at 1:58 pm

Right on the mark Ryan. I agree with #6 in that you nailed it.

However, I do not think fossil fuels will ever go away, as they are needed to develop renewables. Also, no empiracle scientific evidence supports man-made causation for climate change. Nature itself is far more suspect as casual.

#46 kommykim on 08.15.20 at 2:01 pm

RE: Nor does it recognize that oil and gas (O&G) represents our largest export at $132 billion (2018), that it contributes 10% to our total GDP and the $14 billion in annual revenues to the Canadian government.

========================================

The feds are only getting around 10.6% tax/royalties from this resource? (Not counting income taxes of employees) If that is so, then it really shows how poorly Canada has managed this resource sector.

#47 Don Guillermo on 08.15.20 at 2:01 pm

#32 SoggyShorts on 08.15.20 at 1:20 pm

The solution? Other than fantasy scenarios where every nation makes the switch together on both consumption and production sides, there isn’t one. Slow and steady progress, fingers crossed for tech to outpace pollution.
Or
Snowpiercer

******************************************

Snowpiercer, good one! Perfect example of how dangerous global cooling can be :)

#48 David McDonald on 08.15.20 at 2:02 pm

Thanks for the analysis. One other bottleneck preventing a transition away from fossil fuels has to be our electrical transmission system. Carrying capacity would have to increase by twenty times.

#49 Inequity on 08.15.20 at 2:20 pm

A little death of oil might be good for awareness…

Its pathetic that a resource that contributes so much to the GDP of the country gets so little support.

Over the years I have watch as difficulty after difficulty for the industry has been met with opposition even disdain instead of support… with even one province in particular (quebec) has outright blocked initiatives that would have helped. I’ve finally just adopted a mindset that they are the spoiled child of Canada, always with their hand out, but never helping anyone else.
Not part of Canada. Like they wanted…. separate and distinct.

So a nice 10% haircut for the GDP… perhaps a few years of that would help foster the kind of support that the industry needs… if its not too late by then.

#50 Gerry on 08.15.20 at 2:21 pm

Nature isn’t, by default, safe for human life. It needs to be made so by, among other things, the use of cheap, reliable, and plentiful energy. Fossil fuels have done more than any other energy source to promote human flourishing and lower climate related deaths. Energy thinker (and believer in climate change) Alex Epstein writes extensively about how this is so. He documents his case in The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels. He has condensed his (US centric) notes at: http://energytalkingpoints.com/

#51 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 08.15.20 at 2:31 pm

Great post. We need to be realistic about oil and gas. We are not going to replace it anytime soon especially for airplanes which require high energy density.

We also need coking coal for steel production even if we stop using thermal coal to generate electricity.

#52 MF on 08.15.20 at 2:33 pm

No question oil is mega important to our economy, and the oil sector needs to be heavily supported with all that we have.

I guess the only fear is what happens when (not if) oil reserves dwindle and run out? Oil is a finite resource, and at some point in the future (no one knows exactly when) this question will need to be answered. Oil is a huge money maker, but when it begins to run out whoever has a viable alternate source of energy will have even bigger money maker on their hands. This is something we need to think about too.

MF

#53 Joseph R. on 08.15.20 at 2:35 pm

#35 Don Guillermo on 08.15.20 at 1:33 pm
#27 Blobby on 08.15.20 at 12:53 pm
@#10 Dave : “ Trudeau know this but spins a bs line for not building a pipeline.

Millions suffer because of his politics.”

Why do Albertans always do this? There’s a lot of flaws in
Trudeau, but last time I checked he bought the pipeline to make sure it got built to keep Albertans happy… but yet, cons somehow seem to want to twist this into him somehow blocking the pipeline?

W…T..A…F?

Selective memory? Lack of understanding? Too much fox?
*****************************************

He bought the pipeline because the private company that was intending to build it with their own money (not yours) bolted out of Canada after lawless protests and never ending reviews and bureaucracy supported by this juvenile federal government. Terrible politics and at a huge costs to the Canadian taxpayer.

Selective memory? Lack of understanding? Too much CBC?

—————————————————————-

I don’t think you understand Blobby reply.
If Turdeau didn’t want the Trans Mountain pipeline to be twinned, then he wouldn’t bought it from KM.

He bought it, in order to make sure it gets built. Are you aware of the heat he is getting from the Greens and Quebec because of that purchase?

#54 Sail Away on 08.15.20 at 2:42 pm

Did you know around 60 million people die per year in this hurly burly world of ours?

#55 Okotoks Matt on 08.15.20 at 2:44 pm

Excellent article.
I challenge all green Canadians to ban import of oil on the East Coast and after this is completed then continue your attack on AB/Sask.
Most green Canadians love to jet around and voted to kill jobs and the economy of Canadians who live 3000km+ from them.

#56 Inequity on 08.15.20 at 2:45 pm

Its interesting that fingers always seem to be pointed at dirty Canadian Oil but they ignore how many trees there are in Canada pulling CO2 out of the air.

And then ignoring how many trees are being cut down not just in the Amazon, but around the world…

Either the climate movement is myopic and only looking at one side of the equation, or maybe it is like Kenny says and more about US funding those organizations to to keep the competition to a manageable size and the cheap oil flowing only south.

#57 fearologist on 08.15.20 at 2:49 pm

@#54 Sail Away on 08.15.20 at 2:42 pm
Did you know around 60 million people die per year in this hurly burly world of ours?

would you sail away from this blog already

#58 Joseph R. on 08.15.20 at 2:55 pm

#46 kommykim on 08.15.20 at 2:01 pm
RE: Nor does it recognize that oil and gas (O&G) represents our largest export at $132 billion (2018), that it contributes 10% to our total GDP and the $14 billion in annual revenues to the Canadian government.

========================================

The feds are only getting around 10.6% tax/royalties from this resource? (Not counting income taxes of employees) If that is so, then it really shows how poorly Canada has managed this resource sector.

—————————————————————-

It’s worst from the Albertan financial perceptive. Ralph Klein’s government put all the revenue eggs in the tar sand basket:

The term the “Alberta Advantage” was first coined during the 1993 Alberta Throne Speech when then Lieutenant-Governor of Alberta, Gordon Towers, announced on behalf of the majority Conservative government of Ralph Klein:

:Unlike some others, my government will not try to buy prosperity through higher taxes. Instead, it will build on Alberta’s existing advantage of low taxes and its free enterprise spirit to develop the most competitive economy in North America. The government will strengthen the Alberta Advantage and sell it aggressively around the globe.”

Source: https://docs.assembly.ab.ca/LADDAR_files/docs/hansards/han/legislature_23/session_1/19930831_1500_01_han.pdf page 9.

No provinvial sales taxes, no land transfer taxes since. Stemach also removed the payroll health premium of $44/single or $65/family in 2008.

#59 EG on 08.15.20 at 2:57 pm

@54 nine million die from starvation each year .

#60 Solar in prospective on 08.15.20 at 2:59 pm

Putting things in prospective, I have a gas hot water tank and gas furnace and spend maybe $100 a month in winter to heat my home. I use maybe $40 a month in electricity
Over a year as summer is cheaper I spent maybe $1,200 a year on energy let’s say $1,500 for arguments sake and easy math. A solar system would cost me over $25,000 and I would have to replace the batteries after 10 to 15 years. So that’s a 17 year break even without new batteries and another 8 years after new batteries. 25 years to break even. And BC hydro only gives future credits for excess energy you sell.

Surprised no one mention small nuclear reactors which are powerful enough to energize 1,000 homes. Still 15 years out for regularity approval but coming. And of course our pipe dream of cold fusion.
On another note I will not buy an electric car till the range is 1,000 km between charges. I currently drive a hybrid and get 1,000 km on 40 l tank.
Complicated issues oil and gas bottom line until consumers change their attitudes oil and gas are here for a long time.

#61 Dolce Vita on 08.15.20 at 3:12 pm

Nicely said Ryan.

Though on the 10% export thingy, it’s probably a lot less now (unfortunately).

You know, it’s the virus.

StatCan report on Mfg. yesterday:

Petroleum and coal product, June 2019 to June 2020:

-46.9%

And transportation, save Shipbuilding (not a clue, West/East Coasts planning to flee Canada?), June 2019 to June 2020:

Transportation equipment -23.8%

Subsectors:

Motor vehicle -25.5%
Motor vehicle body and trailer -26.9%
Motor vehicle parts -22.3%
Aerospace product and parts -22.9%
Railroad rolling stock -48.6%
Ship and boat building +29.6%

Maybe Sail Away can tell us why the last line item above is positive?

#62 Ronaldo on 08.15.20 at 3:15 pm

Great post Ryan. The voice of common sense and reason once again. Makes you wonder about the intelligence of people like May. If they had their way, they would have us go back to caveman days. They obviously don’t give a hoot about the poverty that would be created by their backwards way of thinking. Incredible.

#63 To Hell with Alberta on 08.15.20 at 3:15 pm

Albertans have made decades of stupid decisions, wasting away the potential of their now-decimated heritage fund while Norway has secured its future with a similar sized oil industry and is ready to face a new world reality with a heritage fund over $1 Trillion.

Alberta just daydreams about going back to the past.
That’s not a strategy. It’s a delusion.

No sympathy at all for those conservative-voting idiots.

Shut up. Do as we tell you to, Alberta. There is no escape.

America won’t take you and you cannot survive on your own.

#64 NoName on 08.15.20 at 3:24 pm

#52 MF on 08.15.20 at 2:33 pm
No question oil is mega important to our economy, and the oil sector needs to be heavily supported with all that we have.

I guess the only fear is what happens when (not if) oil reserves dwindle and run out? Oil is a finite resource, and at some point in the future (no one knows exactly when) this question will need to be answered. Oil is a huge money maker, but when it begins to run out whoever has a viable alternate source of energy will have even bigger money maker on their hands. This is something we need to think about too.

MF

You funny guy, books are written about peak oil… maybe they used same model as one used for climate change. Funnier thing is peak oil books came at same time as shale oil expansion.

We will eventually run out of cheap oil, but not of oil, because we can use technology and sheenthesize it, but biodiesel and ethanol are probably easier and cheaper to do.
(https://www.grida.no/resources/6187)

When they make an airplane that can cross atlantic on battery power that will be a day when oil will become terminally ill but it will live long past that point.

Billiy the Bob cat tell us about wind speed and fuel consumption, so battery airplane is long way to go.

Funny thing all this people that are flying horses around world, tell me how i have to get rid of my gasoline car/truck/minivan and reduce my carbon foot print. But truth is that in my life time i might produce same carbon footprint as they do in one year.

I am all for saving planet but lets be real, working stiff has reached point of diminishing returns on a green front. Even if i buy electric car for life of the car it will barely offset its own production foot print. But modular hybrid car looks promising, but noone is making those yet.

here is an interesting reads
Carbon-Offset Cowboys Let Their Grass Grow

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/carbon-cowboys/#:~:text=Soil%20Sequestration,released%20back%20into%20the%20atmosphere.

http://beautifulnativeplants.blogspot.com/2016/07/is-lawn-carbon-sink_9.html

and bonus read, this explains why electric car owner are always angry.
https://www.geotab.com/blog/range-anxiety/

#65 NoName on 08.15.20 at 3:32 pm

side note.

i dont sprey or water my lawn and mowe lawn rearly, so it is carbon sink.

#66 IHCTD9 on 08.15.20 at 3:33 pm

#46 kommykim on 08.15.20 at 2:01 pm
RE: Nor does it recognize that oil and gas (O&G) represents our largest export at $132 billion (2018), that it contributes 10% to our total GDP and the $14 billion in annual revenues to the Canadian government.

========================================

The feds are only getting around 10.6% tax/royalties from this resource? (Not counting income taxes of employees) If that is so, then it really shows how poorly Canada has managed this resource sector.
———-

They ain’t paying it, YOU are.

Careful what you wish for.

#67 Stoph on 08.15.20 at 3:34 pm

Anyone have info on SolarCity/Tesla solar roofs? Are they as good as advertised?

The idea of a dual purpose roof (protection for a house and energy generation) seems like a great way to bring down the cost of solar. Tesla advertises that the cost is similar to a traditional solar panel installation so essentially you buy solar panels and get a roof for free.

The obvious technical downside is that solar only generates power when the sun shines, but in the case of distributed solar, it also helps solve the electrical transmission/distribution maximum load problem.

#68 Dolce Vita on 08.15.20 at 3:34 pm

About the:

World Energy Consumption by Fuel Type

chart.

Used to teach a University course, “The Role of Engineering in Business and the Economy” (to 4th yr Engrg & B. Comm students).

One of the lectures was about how much of fossil fuels could reasonably be replaced by Green technologies (course in mid 90’s), the number calculated then was:

15%.

Eyeballing the chart, I get 2/14 “Green Tech” or about:

14%.

Ya, Go Liz Go. You’re Green Tech bandwagon has not progressed much in the past 25 year or so has it?

I have always said the public has been fleeced by the Green Tech people, self-evident and it still is.

Marketing still rules the day though, just ask Elon.

————————–

PS:

” see hundreds of wind turbines across Essex County, which personally I think is a great thing”

I don’t.

Ask the birds that impale themselves on it how they feel (felt):

Cornell Univ. Researchers estimate that 140,000 to 328,000 birds are killed every year in collisions with the turbines’ spinning rotor blades and support towers (for the USA, 50,000 wind turbines; therefore, 2.8 to 6.6 birds snuff it per turbine).

Most killed at night.

Next drive to Essex, count the turbines and multiply by 2.8 to 6.6 for the yearly Essex bird Seppuku count. Probably not many bird watchers left in Essex?

Give the birds IR goggles, motion detector modules, really small ones glued to their heads I say.

#69 Inequity on 08.15.20 at 3:36 pm

#63 To Hell with Alberta

why you troll’n on Alberta… did you see an Alberta licence plate out in cottage land? Crazy hillbilly lol

#70 IHCTD9 on 08.15.20 at 3:39 pm

#62 Ronaldo on 08.15.20 at 3:15 pm
Great post Ryan. The voice of common sense and reason once again. Makes you wonder about the intelligence of people like May. If they had their way, they would have us go back to caveman days. They obviously don’t give a hoot about the poverty that would be created by their backwards way of thinking. Incredible.
— – —

Yep, that’s the first thing that popped into my head, she can’t be too smart. How could a person ever end up thinking like this if they looked at the actual numbers? Jag does not appear to be much smarter. Then we have Trudeau and his mouth breathing caucus. Bit of a trend here eh?

#71 Linda on 08.15.20 at 3:40 pm

Excellent post, Ryan. What a lot of people forget when condemning oil & gas is that those products are used to manufacture the ‘good’ green alternatives, not to mention transporting them to market. Not saying we shouldn’t continue to reduce the environmental impact of using oil & gas; just saying most people don’t realize just how much of the lifestyle we enjoy depends on it.

#72 Flop... on 08.15.20 at 3:42 pm

Someone mentioned countries still using coal.

I remember posting this article a few years ago.

It tallied the States by energy usage and cost.

Coal was the cheapest.

51 was the number including D.C

The breakdown of each states major energy source.

Natural Gas 20

Coal 19

Nuclear 5

Hydroelectric 5

Petroleum Liquids

Other renewable sources 1

This Map Shows How Your Energy Source is Driving Your Electricity Bill.

https://howmuch.net/articles/electric-bill-cost-by-state

Also someone else talked about how much oil is left.

Canada gets on the podium.

Bananas are creeping up in price, maybe we chuck in a bunch of bananas with each barrel of oil…

M46BC

Biggest Crude Oil Reserves – Top 10 Countries

1. Venezuela: 300.9 Gbbl
2. Saudi Arabia: 266.5 Gbbl
3. Canada: 169.7 Gbbl
4. Iran: 158.4 Gbbl
5. Iraq: 142.5 Gbbl
6. Kuwait: 101.5 Gbbl
7. UAE: 97.8 Gbbl
8. Russia: 80 Gbbl
9. Libya: 48.4 Gbbl
10. U.S.: 36.5 Gbbl

https://howmuch.net/articles/worlds-biggest-crude-oil-reserves-by-country

#73 Double-D on 08.15.20 at 3:48 pm

Very good post overall. I have a hard time believing anyone would enjoy the sight of wind turbines on the horizon, let alone buy into the economics of their contribution to Ontario’s electrical grid.

#74 TurnerNation on 08.15.20 at 3:51 pm

Ha. “I am believer in climate change”.
So is this all about beliefs or (settled) science. I think we know the answer.

Speaking of I grilled another Branch Covidian today. Same story I was told. Wait until September much sickness and doom coming. Slip the question in, do they or anyone they’ve met or know actually know or heard of anybody that’s actually sick?
I think you know the answer. CV right now is a media tool.
Yeah I’ll get old and even maybe die of flu-like . The risk of being alive is that you die.
Death and taxes and all.
Ps. Avenge my estate.

#75 Alberta Ed on 08.15.20 at 3:53 pm

Alternate energy schemes like wind and solar sound good on paper. In real life, they can’t meet current or future energy needs. Small modular nuclear power plants are still decades away, and we’ll need fossil fuels for the Harleys for a long time to come.

#76 Where's My Money Going Gweedeau? To another "donor" Blackstone Group!!! on 08.15.20 at 3:54 pm

Another kick for housing affordability in Canuckistan, Big Money buying up all rentals….
Big money bets big on B.C. rental: ‘Good news’ for investors, ‘worst fears’ for residents: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/finance/topstories/big-money-bets-big-on-bc-rental-good-news-for-investors-worst-fears-for-residents/ar-BB17ZF27

#77 Flop... on 08.15.20 at 3:58 pm

Hey TN, did you see the news article last night about Major League Baseball getting fans back in the stands, but only with masks on using technology to see if you are wearing a mask?

Anyway my team in Australia, Carlton, won a game in Perth, Western Australia last night.

It was a scrappy game, definitely not a classic, but fans were in attendance and I haven’t seen any mask usage at games the last month or so.

The numbers that matter.

Optus Stadium capacity =60,000

Fans at last night’s reduced capacity game = 24,000

Here is a highlight package, forget the players on the field, just have a quick look at the fans in the stands having fun again…

M46BC

https://www.afl.com.au/video/486257/highlights-fremantle-v-carlton?videoId=486257&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1597496464001

P.S Who ate all the pies?

Crowdie, I don’t know about any pie shop on Kingsway.

Mrs Flop would probably prefer it stay that way…

M46BC

#78 ever after on 08.15.20 at 4:00 pm

good article .. . oil is here to stay for a long time

however I wish you had mentioned more about climate change . we may be a long way from using non polluting energy ..

but we should still act for the good of all and future generations to USE less energy

i got rid of my car . . not all can i know.. i live near downtown Victoria . lucky me .

and i bike only now .. its a pain at times in the rain but we all need to do our bit .

I love travel and will fly less .. . (my family is overseas )

Consume less .. please

#79 I’m stupid on 08.15.20 at 4:18 pm

A few points today.

1. https://www.google.ca/amp/s/beta.ctvnews.ca/national/sci-tech/2020/8/12/1_5061045.html

Might be a better option.

2. The real problem with EVS is refuelling. This problem could be solved but it brings me to point 3

3. Co-operation Tesla and all new companies are full of bs. They all claim to want to do good for our planet and that they’re the only ones that can save the world. That their predecessors are the devil. The range issue could be solved if all Ev’s used interchangeable batteries so an owner of an Ev could simply pull into a station and switch dead batteries for fully charged ones. But then who gets the royalty money?

Amazon is much more terrible than Walmart ever was.

Google sells your info for gains.

Facebook well you get the point.

#80 Sail Away on 08.15.20 at 4:22 pm

#57 fearologist on 08.15.20 at 2:49 pm
@#54 Sail Away on 08.15.20 at 2:42 pm

Did you know around 60 million people die per year in this hurly burly world of ours?

————-

would you sail away from this blog already

————-

Of all my posts, THAT’s the one that triggers you?

Haha

#81 JacqueShellacque on 08.15.20 at 4:27 pm

Only the naive or overly intellectualized would think you could put up graphs of carbon consumption and global “temperatures” (as if there were such a thing) next to each other over an exceedingly short period of time and determine that one causes the other. “Climate change” is nothing more than a collection of nonsense theories based on corrupt pseodoscience peddled by hucksters and ideologues for whom humanity is an abstraction. We have reason enough to be cautious in what we pump into and onto our planet – the effects take decades to manifest. This is certainly a problem for us to deal with, but can never be fixed under false premises and behind hidden agendas. Turning primordial sludge into a society so advanced that anyone born 150 years ago would scarcely believe it possible could be as close to alchemy as our species will get. Otherwise people who say they believe in ‘climate change’ are poseurs (does Elizabeth May bike everywhere?). True virtue requires a downside. You can’t decry the evils of oil while benefitting from living in a society where it is literally as essential as the blood that flows through one’s own veins. There are plenty of places where one can live a petroleum-free lifestyle, all Green party voters feel free to move first.

#82 IHCTD9 on 08.15.20 at 4:31 pm

#37 mike from mtl on 08.15.20 at 1:44 pm

Exacting anything here or abroad is far from “carbon neutral”, wood, Al, Cu, Fe, Au, Ag, and so on. The greenies tend to ignore that.
—-

One carbon neutral fuel is wood. Trees exist in the living carbon cycle, where they consume carbon to grow, and release only the same carbon when they die. A natural tree life and death is actually carbon negative since most of the dead tree ends up under the sod one way or another.

You can run your car on wood via a gasifier, and it’s carbon neutral, if you bury the spent char and ash after gasification is complete, it’s carbon negative.

The greenies are the single most quixotic group out there. You can’t be a tree hugger if logic, reason, facts, and reality ever enter your head. I’m sure they’d have a spaz attack if I pulled up in a wood fuelled 3/4 ton – just because I’ve got a tree in the gas tank. They wouldn’t be interested to learn that i’m driving a vehicle powered by a fully renewable resource, and that it’s carbon negative.

If O+G ended globally tomorrow, half the human population would be dead before Christmas. If oil had never happened, the planet would still be running mostly on animal and water power, and the global population would be about 1 billion.

What’s likely the biggest carbon producer on the planet? Probably International immigration from poor countries to rich ones. A typical Canadian uses 33x more energy resources than an Indian/Chinese. Never read about it though…

#83 R on 08.15.20 at 4:33 pm

I believe Electric Battery Vehicles (BEV), will become increasingly more prevalent . I believe by 2030, te BEV annual sales will approach 20 million. I also believe the total automobile annual sales by 2030 may only be in the 30 million range. The reason I Eliete auto sales will be much lower in 2030 is no one will want to own one. By 2030, Mobility as a Service will be the preferred method of getting around. People will summon a ride service on their phone, an autonomous BEV will arrive and take you where you asked it to go. You pay $.10 /mi through your phone , and you are done. There will always be some demand for oil, but not enough for crude to be worth more than $25-$30 / barrel. Any high cost producer will be ignored by the market and die on the vine

#84 Earlybird on 08.15.20 at 4:36 pm

Crazy May is right…Canadian oil is dead unfortunantely. Our economy and high quality living depends on planet pillage, pollution and fossil fuels. One day change will be forced upon us, as we are experiencing right now. We need a worldwide effort from the best of the best to shoot above our potential in fusion/fission energy to transform industry, manufacturing, aviation and transport. Team the world up! If we keep messing with nature, she will wipe us out. After that, we need to tackle Agriculture as well…just as guilty as fossil fuels emission wise. Great write up and absolutely agree…these energy sources will always be needed, lets hope we survive the transition.

#85 Balmuto on 08.15.20 at 4:41 pm

Problem with Alberta is that it’s a high-cost producer at the mercy of price manipulation by low-cost producers. If OPEC + Russia decide they want to keep the price at a level where only they can make money, there’s nothing anyone else can do. And whereas the frackers can easily turn the switch on or off, it’s much more expensive for oil sands producers to do so. Not a great business model, IMO.

#86 Sail Away on 08.15.20 at 4:53 pm

#79 I’m stupid on 08.15.20 at 4:18 pm

Tesla and all new companies are full of bs. They all claim to want to do good for our planet

————-

Heck, who cares about all that? I got my Tesla mostly for Dog Mode.

But the other stuff is cool too. Like blowing away a Porsche then cranking fart driving mode at the next light.

#87 VicPaul on 08.15.20 at 4:54 pm

#9 jal on 08.15.20 at 11:48 am
Keep the oil home.
Refine the oil home.
Manufacture products from oil home.
Export the finished products.

*********

Word.

Well, ramp up a little and increase market share a few %….you know, developed in a regulated, ESG way – good for workers, economy, country. Taking market share from Nigeria’s “sulfur oil” would be helping the global biosphere.

M56BC

#88 Ryan Lewenza on 08.15.20 at 4:54 pm

John “Ryan, you make some good arguments. Unfortunately, you’re only talking about one side of the argument. First you say that you’re “a believer in climate change.” Then you say “To get off oil quickly would have devastating impacts on our economy, our standard of living and overall way of life.” The problem with these two statements is that climate change is happening, and according to the thousands of scientists who support the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the impacts of rapidly increasing climate change will dwarf the “devastating” impacts of switching off oil suddenly. Both facts needs to be considered in this discussion. I don’t disagree with you, I just wish those who bring up this topic speak to both sides of the discussion. Thanks for all your otherwise helpful advice.”

It’s about balance. We should be investing in renewables while supporting our O&G sector. There’s too much at stake for our economy and as I said, if we cut our production then someone else will just fill in and we’ll be no better off in combating climate change. – Ryan L

#89 Dee on 08.15.20 at 5:01 pm

Excellent article Ryan! If you and Garth are ever bored, check out Michael Moore’s movie that’s on the internet entitled “Planet of Humans”…. it is an eye opening look at what you are talking about! I think you would enjoy it

#90 Ryan Lewenza on 08.15.20 at 5:04 pm

cewgr1 “While I agree with your thought regarding fossil fuel, I have to say that oil and gas investors in Canada have capitulated to the nutbar lefty’s. Why would anyone invest in Canadian oil, the federal government is openly hostile to it, all of the resource is While I agree with your thought regarding fossil fuel, I have to say that oil and gas investors in Canada have capitulated to the nutbar lefty’s. Why would anyone invest in Canadian oil, the federal government is openly hostile to it, all of the resource is landlocked, and we cannot get infrastructure built. As far as elizabeth may, I am always pleasantly surprised when she can put the jack down long enough to make a statemen landlocked, and we cannot get infrastructure built. As far as elizabeth may, I am always pleasantly surprised when she can put the jack down long enough to make a statement.”

Energy is very cheaply valued. One day this value will surface. – Ryan L

#91 TrendIsYourFriend on 08.15.20 at 5:04 pm

Agree Ryan.
These Greens should play the game that’s at max of their understanding how real life works – like planting trees, cleaning up shores etc.

Have they actually done any calculations on how many turbines (which btw affect birds) we need, or solar panels, to replace the carbon?

How about the environmental impacts of Li batteries through their life cycle?

Do they know that one volcano spews more CO2 than human can ever try?

Do they know how photosynthesis works? That CO2 is “inhaled” by plants and for every mol of it one mol of O2 is spewed back in the atmosphere.
That would take us back to my 1st paragraph, let the Greenies (led by that brainwashed kid Greta) plant trees if they are worried about CO2.
Oh and pray that we don’t get another volcanic eruption, they won’t have enough seeds to neutralize it.

#92 Dirty Dan on 08.15.20 at 5:05 pm

ALA.TO (alta gas)
IMO.TO (imperial oil)

Well established business models that aren’t going away, pay dividends and thanks to the recent hits, also have growth potential.

#93 Sydneysider on 08.15.20 at 5:06 pm

The numbers in Layton’s table are misleading, by orders of magnitude.

Power densities carefully compared for different technologies in a meaningful way show a very different picture:

https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0301421518305512-gr2_lrg.jpg

which is Fig. 2 of:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518305512

#94 IHCTD9 on 08.15.20 at 5:07 pm

#67 Stoph on 08.15.20 at 3:34 pm
Anyone have info on SolarCity/Tesla solar roofs? Are they as good as advertised?
——

You are in for a lot of careful research if you want a real answer on this.

Your roof may not face directly south, it probably doesn’t track the sun across the sky, it may become partially shaded throughout the day, you may be located at a high latitude where solar irritation is low, you may live in an area where days of sunshine are low, you may have a low slope roof where snow will just sit, or one flat enough that the winter sun height will significantly drop output.

There are so many factors to consider that will affect your output. From what little I know about solar, fixed panels at fixed pitches require a ton more area to make up for the losses compared to adjustable pitch sun tracking set ups.

#95 Mr Canada on 08.15.20 at 5:07 pm

People think carbon is just a car thing. We have created over 6,000+ products using oil as the main ingredient that we rely on every day. Elizabeth May and her hypocrite protest friends rely on oil just as much as everyone else, including those pesky protest signs.

#96 45north on 08.15.20 at 5:09 pm

Whether we like it or not, oil and other petroleum products are an integral part of our lives and economy. This includes transportation fuels like gasoline and jet fuel, heating oil and electricity generation, the petrochemical industry where petroleum is used as a raw material for thousands of different household products like clothing, electronics, and agricultural products. To get off oil quickly would have devastating impacts on our economy, our standard of living and overall way of life.

peak oil is the idea that the cheapest, best oil has already been found.

Matthew Simmons wrote a book “Twilight in the Desert” in which he predicted a global oil crisis. He was wrong. New technology allowed the United States to produce more oil by fracking. But the underlying thesis is correct – there is a limited supply of oil.

Canada should invest in oil, in Canada – production facilities, pipelines, refineries. To have a reliable source of petroleum products for Canada. To put Canadians to work.

We need the right investment decisions. We’re in the middle of a pandemic and wondering how to get the economy going. It used to be investment was a no-brainer – railways, farm machinery, roads, St Laurence Seaway, grain elevators, subways. I remember 1967 – the huge expansion of Highway 401 in Toronto – construction as far as the eye could see. The investments paid off – they led to an improvement in people’s lives.

Investment in oil and the petro chemical industry will pay off. It will get our economy going. It will maintain our standard of living and overall way of life.

Let me preface today’s blog post by stating that I am a believer in climate change, that human activity through the consumption of fossil fuels is contributing to global warming

Me too, I’m a believer in climate change and increased carbon dioxide is having an effect on climate but there is an element of doubt. 22,000 years ago Canada was covered by glaciers. It’s a fact. It could be that increased carbon dioxide balances the decrease in solar radiation. Nobody knows. Even if it exactly balances, there is still is going to be climate change.

#97 Stone on 08.15.20 at 5:14 pm

#86 Sail Away on 08.15.20 at 4:53 pm
#79 I’m stupid on 08.15.20 at 4:18 pm

Tesla and all new companies are full of bs. They all claim to want to do good for our planet

————-

Heck, who cares about all that? I got my Tesla mostly for Dog Mode.

But the other stuff is cool too. Like blowing away a Porsche then cranking fart driving mode at the next light.

———

I somehow have trouble believing that. How can you be out enjoying your Tesla and your organic water when you spend so much of your time here? Wonder. Wonder.

Or, is it to stand by the Tesla in the grocery store parking lot when you buy your organic water and yell out to other shoppers “Hey, look at me! And my Tesla!”?

Wanna make a statement? Buy a hot pink lambo.

#98 TrendIsYourFriend on 08.15.20 at 5:18 pm

We should ask greenies to focus ther efforts and knowledge (sic!) at stopping volcanoes, but not with my money.
My money just went into an Audi turbo, lease return from a realtor. Bought it on a recent dip :)

#99 TrendIsYourFriend on 08.15.20 at 5:27 pm

Took an electric car for a spin, out of curiosity. Yea, as expected, electric motors produce torque that ICE engines can only dream about.
But the sound of my turbo engine after “pedal to the metal” – priceless.
At least for us, hairy, real men.

#100 SWL on 08.15.20 at 5:29 pm

Great blog post Ryan. When I hear our ‘leaders’ or protestors of oil speak of it being dead it just goes to show their complete ignorance and lack of understanding of our modern world

Crushing Canadian oil and gas is literally biting the hand that feeds, but try telling that to those with their hands out blocking railway tracks. I spent 5 years working it the thick of Canadian oil and gas and it amazed me at the amount of inovation that was created through trying to be more efficient and produce cleaner energy. If the green party really want to make a difference this is where their focus should lie

This new global communism in the name of covid reality sucks. For those who don’t yet see it and believe that our current federal government has our best interest in mind… Enjoy your fleeing moments of bliss as this is all being rolled out way faster than I ever thought possible.

Covid now trumps logic every time and you literally can’t argue with that

#101 Sail Away on 08.15.20 at 5:30 pm

Ok, let’s get techie:

Mass and energy can be neither created nor destroyed. It’s a law.

Ergo: all bound carbon was once free.

And who are we to imprison carbon? Release it! Are you an oppressor or a liberator?

Let my carbon go

#102 Ronaldo on 08.15.20 at 5:32 pm

#31 technical analysis? on 08.15.20 at 1:16 pm
isn’t it amazing that Buffett is buying a fairly large stake in Barrick? what do the naysayers have to say now?
——————————————————————
Not a naysayer, just the opposite. Investing in Ag for many years and those who are active in the pm space will remember that back in 2006 Warren purchased 129,710,000 oz. of silver for $680,000,000 or around $5.24 per oz. By 2006 he had sold off his entire stash at around $7.50 per oz. for a nice 43% or $292,000,000 gain. This was at the same time that SLV started trading on the exchange.

Had he held onto his hoard until today, his stash would be worth $3,460,000,000.

If you compare Birkshire stock from 1998 to date, gold has gained 658% vs Birshire stock 419%.

Warren obviously sees Barrick stock as a good long term buy given what is going on with the money creation today.

For long term investors, not day traders or speculators, the pm sector has been very profitable.

#103 Sail Away on 08.15.20 at 5:34 pm

#97 Stone on 08.15.20 at 5:14 pm

How can you be out enjoying your Tesla and your organic water when you spend so much of your time here? Wonder. Wonder.

Or, is it to stand by the Tesla in the grocery store parking lot when you buy your organic water and yell out to other shoppers “Hey, look at me! And my Tesla!”?

—————

Wonder no more, silly: Autopilot Mode.

But yes, I do the grocery store thing too.

#104 Ronaldo on 08.15.20 at 5:34 pm

Prvious post should have read ‘back in 1997’ not 2006.

#105 IHCTD9 on 08.15.20 at 5:35 pm

Matthew Simmons wrote a book “Twilight in the Desert” in which he predicted a global oil crisis. He was wrong. New technology allowed the United States to produce more oil by fracking. But the underlying thesis is correct – there is a limited supply of oil.
— –

I read that too- great book. Most of his prediction was based on Saudi depletion, and fake reserve numbers posted by OPEC nations (they had a quota system where their maximum sales were tied to their depletion rates, so many OPEC nations began lying about their reserves to increase revenues). US tight Oil wasn’t a thing – but now, the USA is the number 1 Oil producer in the world. No one would have guessed that back then. “Necessity is the mother of invention” eh?

There’s likely a lot of other tight Oil formations that were pumped to their economic feasibility out there too. Like the old wells that were big in the 1900’s. A lot of oil still in these old fields, they just need a time where demand, technology, and oil prices align enough to make extraction possible, and profitable.

Then there’s deep sea and arctic fields yet to be discovered and/or exploited.

I don’t see a time where oil goes bonkers in price again like the run up to 2008 any time soon – there’s too much available. That pretty much means any kind of renewables will need to become vastly cheaper and more efficient than they are now if they’re ever going to stand on their own two feet sometime soon.

#106 TrendIsYourFriend on 08.15.20 at 5:37 pm

“Let me preface today’s blog post by stating that I am a believer in climate change, that human activity through the consumption of fossil fuels is contributing to global warming

Me too, I’m a believer in climate change and increased carbon dioxide is having an effect on climate but there is an element of doubt. 22,000 years ago Canada was covered by glaciers. It’s a fact. It could be that increased carbon dioxide balances the decrease in solar radiation. Nobody knows. Even if it exactly balances, there is still is going to be climate change.”

Two of you guys have never lit up a camp fire? Sat around one?
The closer you sit to it, the hotter it gets, right?
Now, how about sitting at the same distance but adding more dry wood, or some gasoline for fun.
Nobody (not the mainstream media) wants to discuss the Sun, cycles and what not. Because it’s not easy to measure and sell to uneducated crowd.
And you can’t tax it, you know, it’s Sun. What can we do about it. But we can certainly blame that turbo driving nut for global temperatures.

#107 David l tindall on 08.15.20 at 5:43 pm

First. The big big picture. Fossil fuels are a rapidly depleting resource. Producing them does not create revenue or wealth. It is simply a withdrawal from our resource pantry. Once it is gone, it is gone.
Second. There is much more energy in the wind than we could ever use . Building thousands of windmills is probably the stupidist and most expensive way to harness it. One day people will figure out a far more efficient way to utilize it.
Third. It amazes me how crazy we are to move millions of 2 ton pieces of metal every day just to get a 150 lb person to work. Moving weightless electrons is much cheaper yet.
Fourth. So we spend billions of dollars every year to cut grass when we could be growing vegetables and raising chickens to feed us. But no! We are too sophisticated to do anything sensible like that. We would rather whine that the world is not unfolding as we would like.
Fifth. If we don’t do something dramatic, we will all be toast much sooner than we realize as the climate changes. Thinking we can just continue with minor tweaks here and there is not a long-term option.

#108 other guy in Vancovuer on 08.15.20 at 5:45 pm

CBC says many thousands of CRA accounts have been hacked. CRA reportedly “recommends that anyone affected by the breach update their passwords immediately”. Good advice, except I am finding the CRA website logins are currently entirely disabled.

#109 the Jaguar on 08.15.20 at 5:45 pm

@#24 Don Guillermo on 08.15.20 at 12:34 pm – Thanks for the link to the trio. I may give Mazatlan a try one day. One of the places I never got to in Mexico and what you said about it being the only colonial city of the coast intrigued me greatly.

@#96 45north on 08.15.20 at 5:09 pm

Matthew Simmons was wicked smart, may he rest in peace. The documentary ‘The End of Suburbia’ is as timely now as it was then, despite a 10+ year interlude of tight oil. Many of those companies going bankrupt these days, and the thing about tight oil is that it isn’t good for most things unless you mix it with heavier oil.

Ryan is correct when he says ‘Energy is very cheaply valued. One day this value will surface. – Ryan L’.
Most don’t see what’s ahead, but that is true of all things. Electrical grid issues should also be on people’s radar but are not.

#110 TrendIsYourFriend on 08.15.20 at 5:47 pm

Aaaand, btw, if your TSLA stock (those who are long) breaks out to mew highs, it will most likely do it on a negative RSI and MACD divergence. Trade carefully

#111 Trump Golfers on 08.15.20 at 5:48 pm

the freedom from driving my car (Note: not a Porsche!)

Lemme guess? A Rolls Royce? A Lambo?

There is demand for cars because more people are working because of equality and human rights. The carbon footprint is increasing because we are getting richer. If countries like India or China had our standard of living oil demand will skyrocket to 500 million bbl of oil daily.

#112 Boomer Bill on 08.15.20 at 5:58 pm

#97 Dharma Bum on 08.15.20 at 10:43 am
—————————————————————–

The gem you carefully avoided mentioning by name is the beautiful Bruce Penninsula and its 100s of kilometres of coastline and the most gorgeous sunsets on the planet. I bought a 200 acre farm just north of you on Manitoulin Island. I fly there out of Brampton airport to avoid the 6 hour car drive. Another undiscovered gem, the largest fresh water island in the world, Manitoulin.

#113 Penny Henny on 08.15.20 at 6:13 pm

And nickel is ranked as the eight worst metal to mine in terms of pollution and global warming.-Ryan
//////////////

Time to get rid of the nickel.
First it was the penny (no pun intended) and now the nickel

#114 fearologist on 08.15.20 at 6:22 pm

@#78 ever after on 08.15.20 at 4:00 pm
good article .. . oil is here to stay for a long time

however I wish you had mentioned more about climate change . we may be a long way from using non polluting energy ..

Consume less .. please

but what will all the losers do with their CERB cheques?

#115 Stoph on 08.15.20 at 6:23 pm

Thanks Ryan for a great post.

When looking at political parties, I’d say that the Liberals are the only party that have some sort of balance between O&G extraction and reduction of CO2. The conservatives think it’s the 1950s (a home retrofit tax credit to combat climate change frankly doesn’t cut it) and the NDP/Greens think its 2200 not 2020. That being said, I’m not impressed by the Liberals performance so far.

#116 Repurchase Disagreement on 08.15.20 at 6:26 pm

Disappointed to see the phraseology “I believe in…”, which is essentially a proclamation of faith and not science. This has been a frustrating topic for me, as a scientist, as I have long known CO2 as greenhouse gas, but have also been deeply aware it’s impact as a climate driver has been wildly overstated. It’s impact will be minimal, and any adaptation costs are, in the long run, far far less than the impact from abandoning oil.

It seems to a honest environmentalist has recently owned up on this:

https://environmentalprogress.org/big-news/2020/6/29/on-behalf-of-environmentalists-i-apologize-for-the-climate-scare

I’ve long been dismayed we have spent so much time and effort on trying to effect the temperature of the planet (we can’t), while we could have been focused on clean water in the 3rd world. Or maybe sustained Pandemic preparedness, as Pandemics are actually relatively common. Sad to see both you and Garth wed so hard to this.

#117 Ronaldo on 08.15.20 at 6:30 pm

#81 JacqueShellacque on 08.15.20 at 4:27 pm

There are plenty of places where one can live a petroleum-free lifestyle, all Green party voters feel free to move first.

====================================
Where would be a good place to send them? Easter Island?

#118 Ronaldo on 08.15.20 at 6:35 pm

Perfect solution for Elizabeth May

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bennett_buggy#/media/File:35bennettbuggy.jpg

#119 Pete from St. Cesaire on 08.15.20 at 6:38 pm

You can’t talk much about oil until you’ve read The Energy Non-Crisis by Lindsey Williams. (available here in PDF form):
http://www.globalistagenda.org/download/TheEnergyNon-Crisis.pdf

#120 Duh on 08.15.20 at 6:43 pm

There is a difference between oil operations (current production capacity bring product to market) and oil capital investment (infrastructure to increase production capacity).

May’s comments, as inflammatory as they may be, are describing the well documented divestment from Canadian oil sands by the large multinationals that drove the most recent boom. They’re leaving because they shot their shot in terms of growing production capacity here and have realized the returns aren’t going to be there given the high cost of extraction in relation to other global reserves. May’s comments are a call for Canadian tax payers to stop voting for policies that subsidize an industry where the majority of jobs are in capital projects and the future of capital projects is bleak.

Maybe stick with baseball cards and value stocks.

#121 Sean Melvin on 08.15.20 at 6:51 pm

my o my what a bunch of nutters you commentators are….garth et al are only trying to help in their own way based upon their education and life experiences – yes they might be old and full of old ideas but what are you all trying to do by commenting?? give your head a shake – you obviously have way too much involved in business as usual….

#122 Faron on 08.15.20 at 6:55 pm

#101 Sail Away on 08.15.20 at 5:30 pm

Ok, let’s get techie:

Mass and energy can be neither created nor destroyed. It’s a law.

Ergo: all bound carbon was once free.

And who are we to imprison carbon? Release it! Are you an oppressor or a liberator?

Let my carbon go

SA’s drunk. If not drunk, is incoherent for some other reason. Too much sun? TSLA back above $1600?

#123 Donewithoil on 08.15.20 at 6:57 pm

The world is moving quickly away from fossil fuels, especially in the big cities. Get on board or get left behind. If it isn’t zero emission its dying soon.

#124 Axehead on 08.15.20 at 7:09 pm

#119 Duh. Your handle is appropriate. The renewables depend on subsidies foe existence. As Ryan pointed out Oil and Gas is Canada’s #1 export, contributing billions to the economy. Duh, indeed.

#125 espressobob on 08.15.20 at 7:15 pm

We as a civilization are masters of our own demise. This won’t change.

Investors are a greedy bunch interested in making profit from resources we treat as a commodity with no regard for the consequences.

We took the wrong step a long time ago.

#126 Coopoiler on 08.15.20 at 7:15 pm

Great article. All good points. The one area that greens complain about is the Vast amount ofsubsidies that oil gets from government. This I can never understand, yes royalties are waved until a projects costs are covered before royalties kick in but royalties do kick in. Oil companies pay fees to government just for the right to search for oil. Oil pays road taxes at both federal and provincial levels. Renewables pay for none of this and in fact receive subsidies from both federal and provincial governments. I have a hard time grasping the logic employed by die hard environmentalist. Unless you want return to medieval times this country Had best keep pumping oil

#127 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.15.20 at 7:21 pm

#57 fearologist on 08.15.20 at 2:49 pm
@#54 Sail Away on 08.15.20 at 2:42 pm
Did you know around 60 million people die per year in this hurly burly world of ours?

would you sail away from this blog already

—–

Right, and leave the comments section to you bunch of Debbie Downers? I guess if you wanted to kill steerage section, getting rid of one of the few entertaining voices here could do it.

#128 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.15.20 at 7:22 pm

Easy solution for the demand problem.
Slap a 30% gas guzzler tax on all F-150s.
Problem solved.

#129 kingston boy on 08.15.20 at 7:30 pm

@#119 Duh on 08.15.20 at 6:43 pm
There is a difference between oil operations (current production capacity bring product to market) and oil capital investment (infrastructure to increase production capacity).

May’s comments, as inflammatory as they may be, are describing the well documented divestment from Canadian oil sands by the large multinationals that drove the most recent boom. They’re leaving because they shot their shot in terms of growing production capacity here and have realized the returns aren’t going to be there given the high cost of extraction in relation to other global reserves. May’s comments are a call for Canadian tax payers to stop voting for policies that subsidize an industry where the majority of jobs are in capital projects and the future of capital projects is bleak.

Maybe stick with baseball cards and value stocks.

—–

ssshhhhh.
doesn’t fit the narrative with the local yokels on here.

#130 Nonplused on 08.15.20 at 7:34 pm

Well obviously this post is going to generate a storm of comments.

First, Ryan, I would like to say I think you did a terrific job in describing the predicament in layman’s terms and avoiding the crayon colored solutions many of our political leaders give us. But anyway;

Elizabeth May doesn’t care about Alberta oil and gas because where she lives most of the oil comes from Norway and Saudi Arabia. For some reason out east they think buying oil from a tyrannical regime in the middle east and shipping it by boat is a better idea than safe, clean Canadian oil shipped by pipeline. I’d like to see a forensic audit of where her political contributions come from because I highly suspect it comes from vested interests. There is simply no logical explanation except for the legacy fact there isn’t a west-east oil pipeline in Canada, they all go south.

Part of the reason for that is that the major population centers in the east were importing oil long before Alberta became a major production center. They had ports and boats and Alberta is a long way away. That’s how Irving Oil got to be the behemoth it is even though they don’t actually have any oil. They have boats and ports and refineries though.

And the hypocrisy in BC is astounding. They have depended on Alberta refined products for years, but now that the situation makes an expansion of the pipeline economic they would rather source the required additional supply by barge from the US. It is insane. More forensic auditing should be done. Somebody is in somebody’s pocket.

Down south the opposition to Keystone is simply an effort to support the US shale industry. They let the parts they wanted be built. It’s just the last bit that gets to Alberta they don’t want. That will pass after shale oil is acknowledged to be the scam that it is.

As for climate change, well, yes, I suppose any change you make to the atmosphere must have some affect but I am not sure a couple degrees of warming negates the benefits plants and agriculture receive from some extra CO2. Most people don’t realize it because our education system is so bad, but most of what we eat has 2 main components: CO2 and water both from the air. Fertilizers help because other chemicals are needed but CO2 and water are the main ingredients of a happy plant.

Also lost in the discussion is that all renewable sources just don’t scale. Just to replace the forecast “growth” in energy demand every year would require an area the size of Scotland to be covered in windmills every single year. That just isn’t going to happen. The only thing we have that might scale is nuclear, but try and get one of those built these days.

And electric cars are just dumb. They run on the same energy mix as shown in the BP graph. In other words 85% oil, gas, and coal. But from coal mine to charging station they are less efficient than just putting the gasoline in the tank, so CO2 emissions are actually higher. Whenever you read about the amazing energy efficiency of an electric car remember they are calculating it based on having a fully charged battery. They don’t get into the messy details of charging that battery, which aren’t pretty. And as for zero emissions, they are again measuring the car not where the electrons came from. It is a scam.

A far more pressing problem than global warming is that, although nobody knows exactly how long they will last, at some point the fossil fuels will run out (and they will do that before they cause runaway global destruction, that much is certain). If we haven’t moved to a truly nuclear age by then, it seems certain our children, those of them that survive that is, will be herding goats and living in a tent.

#131 Where's My Money Going Grease-dough? More to NWO, nothing to Oil??? on 08.15.20 at 7:37 pm

Re: #49 Inequity on 08.15.20 at 2:20 pm
A little death of oil might be good for awareness…

Its pathetic that a resource that contributes so much to the GDP of the country gets so little support.

Over the years I have watch as difficulty after difficulty for the industry has been met with opposition even disdain instead of support… with even one province in particular (quebec) has outright blocked initiatives that would have helped. I’ve finally just adopted a mindset that they are the spoiled child of Canada, always with their hand out, but never helping anyone else.
Not part of Canada. Like they wanted…. separate and distinct.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
You just have to look at the “distinct” quality of the Desmarais family (Power Financial) and how influential they have been in putting their own into the PM’s chair.
Just look back to the 70’s where they embedded Gweedeau Sr. and their cohort Maurice Strong, the godfather of Climate Change and NWO/UN.
https://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/the-web-of-paul-desmarais
https://medium.com/@christopherrichardwadedettling/the-corrupt-legacy-of-paul-desmarais-2c30cab0cf36
Here’s a little piece on Strong written right after he died in 2015:
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2015/12/discovering-maurice-strong/

#132 Sailing Away's Psychiatrist on 08.15.20 at 7:47 pm

#121 Faron on 08.15.20 at 6:55 pm

SA’s drunk. If not drunk, is incoherent for some other reason. Too much sun? TSLA back above $1600″
—————————————————————–
Close. He’s now joined Stanley Brooks in a padded room. They are becoming bosom buddies. Stanley showed him his inflation charts and Sail Away showed Stanley photos of his Tesla and a photo shopped photo of him and Elon Musk… Crazy would be the apt adjective…

#133 Kevin on 08.15.20 at 7:50 pm

Great post, Ryan. Your writing is really improving! I agree with your points. I didn’t see much mention of hydrogen, but it has a relatively low energy density (I believe that it is effectively 10% of gasoline) and difficult and dangerous to transport.

#134 Boomer Bill on 08.15.20 at 7:53 pm

#102 Ronaldo on 08.15.20 at 5:32 pm

For long term investors, not day traders or speculators, the pm sector has been very profitable.
——————————————————————-
Tell me about it. I scooped up 20,000 shares when Barrick cratered to below $20 in March and rode it to $40 and dumped.

#135 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.15.20 at 7:57 pm

#107 David l tindall on 08.15.20 at 5:43 pm

—–

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ecowatch.com/amp/netflix-bad-for-environment-2639174138

Hmmm. Internet use accounts for 4% of global carbon emissions…

Canada accounts for >2%…

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions.html

Keep looking darling.

#136 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.15.20 at 8:03 pm

#122 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.15.20 at 7:57 pm
#107 David l tindall on 08.15.20 at 5:43 pm

—–

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ecowatch.com/amp/netflix-bad-for-environment-2639174138

Hmmm. Internet use accounts for 4% of global carbon emissions…

Canada accounts for >2%…

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions.html

Keep looking darling

—-

Dangit.. less than 2%… Point still stands..

#137 Financial Freedom at Forty on 08.15.20 at 8:05 pm

No ESG pumping millennials follow this blog? Ah right they must all over at Wealthsimple…

I see the AltaGas and Imperial oil reco above – values do look attractive. Been quite satisfied with various plays on BEP, NPI, AGN, NEE, BLX etc since 2015.

Not all the “lefty nutbars” are financially suffering

#138 Karlhungus on 08.15.20 at 8:08 pm

#63 to hell with Alberta

What are you on son ? You ever hear of transfer payments? Norway = country, Alberta = province. Think about this fact long and hard

#139 Nonplused on 08.15.20 at 8:09 pm

#27 Blobby on 08.15.20 at 12:53 pm
@#10 Dave : “ Trudeau know this but spins a bs line for not building a pipeline.

Millions suffer because of his politics.”

Why do Albertans always do this? There’s a lot of flaws in
Trudeau, but last time I checked he bought the pipeline to make sure it got built to keep Albertans happy… but yet, cons somehow seem to want to twist this into him somehow blocking the pipeline?

W…T..A…F?

Selective memory? Lack of understanding? Too much fox?

————————–

Trudeau bought the pipeline because his lawyers told him, quite rightly, that if he didn’t Kinder Morgan was going to sue his ass off and win. (Well, our asses technically.) They’d already spent billions on the thing assuming (rightly) the pipeline was green lighted.

This episode will probably have long ranging implications for investment in Canada, both for foreigners and for locals. Canada will no longer be looked at as a safe place to do business. The lesson here is that even after you get all your approvals and spend a whole lot of money, a few protesters can cause a total loss of your investment.

I mean, you just have to look at the natives along the proposed trans-mountain pipeline. They are overwhelmingly in favor. They are much more worried about the old one failing than the new one. They liked the jobs. The new pipeline promised annual revenues. They had a say about safety and construction quality. The small group that was opposed did not represent the majority. No elected officials opposed it, once their terms were met. And that’s all fine, I think the natives should be entitled to negotiate rent for their land, and even job opportunities. But once the deal was made Trudeau stopped it anyway. He didn’t buy it out to assure completion, he bought it out because he had to. I personally don’t think it’ll ever be built no matter how much government money is spent on it. Trudeau bought it to kill it. It wasn’t his money, after all.

#140 Kilt on 08.15.20 at 8:13 pm

Think you missed the point of her comment. Oil is at $40. Most companies are not making money. Many are overleveraged. Few are planning new projects. Capital spending was cut by 350 billion?
Sure, Covid presented a buying opportunity, but long term investing in Canadian oil is like investing in blackberry.
There is just so many other places to put your money.

Kilt.

#141 Ace Goodheart on 08.15.20 at 8:25 pm

Dead on. Hit the nail on the head

#142 Nonplused on 08.15.20 at 8:26 pm

#34 drongo on 08.15.20 at 1:33 pm
@#33 cewgr1 on 08.15.20 at 1:22 pm

Why would anyone invest in Canadian oil
—————

the world is awash in cheap oil.
extracting Canadian oil is too expensive.

—————–

Where, exactly, is this cheap oil of which you speak? Deep offshore? Alaska? Shale? Saudi still has some left but most of it is gone.

#143 Drinking on 08.15.20 at 8:31 pm

Finally someone out East besides Rex telling the truth and echoing what most Albertans have been saying for decades. Lousy governments both here in AB and Ottawa does not help the situation. May is May just like Suzuki is Suzuki; both hypocrites!

#144 Nonplused on 08.15.20 at 8:36 pm

#46 kommykim on 08.15.20 at 2:01 pm

“The feds are only getting around 10.6% tax/royalties from this resource? (Not counting income taxes of employees) If that is so, then it really shows how poorly Canada has managed this resource sector.”

——————————-

Um, it costs a lot to drill an oil well. Even more to mine oil sands. You can’t tax money that isn’t there. Believe me they are taking every penny they can, and then squeezing it even harder.

#145 Stone on 08.15.20 at 8:38 pm

#139 Kilt on 08.15.20 at 8:13 pm
Think you missed the point of her comment. Oil is at $40. Most companies are not making money. Many are overleveraged. Few are planning new projects. Capital spending was cut by 350 billion?
Sure, Covid presented a buying opportunity, but long term investing in Canadian oil is like investing in blackberry.
There is just so many other places to put your money.

Kilt.

———

And that is the most compelling argument of all. You can try to put lipstick on a pig but ultimately, it’s just a pig.

#146 Ronaldo on 08.15.20 at 8:39 pm

#115 Repurchase Disagreement on 08.15.20 at 6:26 pm

I’ve long been dismayed we have spent so much time and effort on trying to effect the temperature of the planet (we can’t), while we could have been focused on clean water in the 3rd world. Or maybe sustained Pandemic preparedness, as Pandemics are actually relatively common. Sad to see both you and Garth wed so hard to this.
—————————————————————–
Ain”t that the truth. When you consider that the sun is so large that it can occupy all of the planets in our solar system with room to spare, that maybe, just maybe, it may have a bit more to do with things on earth than what we are being led to believe. We are a mere speck compared to it.

#147 Nonplused on 08.15.20 at 8:45 pm

#63 To Hell with Alberta on 08.15.20 at 3:15 pm

“Shut up. Do as we tell you to, Alberta. There is no escape.

America won’t take you and you cannot survive on your own.”

————————-

Um, America has already taken Alberta, except for the taxes part. If I were you I would not expect those 2 tiny railroads and that single lane highway to keep it that way for long. America is well aware how much oil there is in Alberta, they just aren’t sure when they want it. But they have always made sure it didn’t go to Ontario.

#148 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.15.20 at 8:57 pm

Mentioning Liz May on this blog is like waving a red flag in front of an Albertan Bull.

#149 WTF on 08.15.20 at 9:08 pm

I Too think we need to do what we can to reduce emissions, and we are and have been for decades. It is still ongoing. Typically it is economically driven but also public awareness created by sound data. Most people are reasonable and want to help reduce consumption.

Here on the Left Coast we get to be demonized by the SJW’s who camp out, hang in trees, howl, stomp their feet, burn logs, and sing kum bye ya at the foot of Burnaby Mountain (pissing off the local residents.) All to halt the oil pipeline of which there is already one of. Based on what I see many protesters seem to able to do this for weeks which presumably means they are not contributing members of society.

Meanwhile the Coal train rumbles down to Roberts Bank daily disgorging mountains of the worst (by far) carbon polluter unfettered by any critical response from the guardians of outrage. The Hypocrisy is stunning. China and India get a pass, Meanwhile Canada self flagellates wears a hair shirt and does penance to satisfy the screaming my way or the highway do it yesterday nutbars.

It will never be enough for those folks.

#150 kingston boy on 08.15.20 at 9:20 pm

@#136 Financial Freedom at Forty on 08.15.20 at 8:05 pm
No ESG pumping millennials follow this blog? Ah right they must all over at Wealthsimple…

I see the AltaGas and Imperial oil reco above – values do look attractive. Been quite satisfied with various plays on BEP, NPI, AGN, NEE, BLX etc since 2015.

Not all the “lefty nutbars” are financially suffering

definitely smug though

#151 kingston boy on 08.15.20 at 9:23 pm

@#131 Sailing Away’s Psychiatrist on 08.15.20 at 7:47 pm
#121 Faron on 08.15.20 at 6:55 pm

SA’s drunk. If not drunk, is incoherent for some other reason. Too much sun? TSLA back above $1600″
—————————————————————–
Close. He’s now joined Stanley Brooks in a padded room. They are becoming bosom buddies. Stanley showed him his inflation charts and Sail Away showed Stanley photos of his Tesla and a photo shopped photo of him and Elon Musk… Crazy would be the apt adjective…

————————

always figured stan and sail were the same poster

#152 Ryan Lewenza on 08.15.20 at 9:28 pm

mark “Ryan, Good article thank you. What % of a B&D portfolio would you give to energy oil & gas sector, I caught you on BNN awhile ago and you seemed luke warm on energy stocks and ETF’s. Can you clarify, have good weekend all.”

I’m still lukewarm on energy stocks but I believe the massive underperformance will create a great buying opportunity. Right now our energy sector weight is very low but when the long-term technicals improve, then we’ll look at adding to the sector. – Ryan L

#153 Grunt on 08.15.20 at 9:36 pm

If the oil agenda wasn’t so green it would roll over and just play dead. Not smart exposure.

#154 the Jaguar on 08.15.20 at 9:37 pm

RE: #129 Nonplused on 08.15.20 at 7:34 pm

Every so often a HOME RUN is hit on this pathetic blog. Nonplused just hit one in the above post.

Thank you for your thoughtful and accurate analysis.

It’s a long game this business of energy and how it looks going forward. Never was there a subject that exposed the weak minds of so many in full astonishment of the thoughtful and knowledgeable minds of the few. The cold dish of revenge sometimes takes a while to prepare, but never does that detract from the satisfaction of its excellent flavour and impact. We had a small appetizer of what is to come a few months ago when propane shortages caused the government of Quebec to sh_t the bed, but that is but a small glimpse of what lies ahead. As always, those who have vision will benefit from keeping their powder dry.
Not much happens in the dog days of August as the major players are relaxing on their chaise lounge chairs lakeside in Huntsville and its environs……….
But the Dem convention is only one week out. Conrad Black had something to say today about the chances of he who cannot be named, and unless I miss my guess the planets are aligning for the biggest slug fest since the Cassius Clay Sonny Liston fight. It is only with the heart that one can see rightly…..what is essential is invisible to the eye. Mercy.

#155 David Code on 08.15.20 at 10:50 pm

Quebec gets 95% of oil from USA and Canada, 5% from Norway , Algeria and one of the Stan countries. NB still has to depend on foreign oil but a tanker recently delivered Alberta oil via tanker thru Panama canal .

#156 SoggyShorts on 08.15.20 at 11:18 pm

#127 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.15.20 at 7:22 pm
Easy solution for the demand problem.
Slap a 30% gas guzzler tax on all F-150s.
Problem solved.

****************
You know that F-150s are the small trucks, right? Like the bare minimum if your work involves anything near construction.
Also, anyone driving less than an F-150 4×4 in one of the provinces that often has 6 months of snow is crazy IMO.

M40AB

#157 William R Drury on 08.15.20 at 11:20 pm

Congrats well written article

#158 AisA on 08.15.20 at 11:36 pm

The Covid hysteria that we have witnessed and are still living through codified in my mind how religions and cults came into being.

There is an invisible threat, it will kill you or the ones you love, unless you do exactly as we say…. If you don’t buy into the fear porn immediately, there is a prescribed set of punishments that must be administered in order to keep the true believers from straying from the narrow path.

It’s so old hat, the fact that it has worked is depressing beyond belief.

That being said, my portfolio is currently at around 85% hydrocarbons. See you all in Valhalla or whatever.

#159 KNOW IT ALL on 08.15.20 at 11:54 pm

Any insight on the Canadian dollar relative to other currencies?

A basic 101 on the topic would be helpful.

#160 Robert Ash on 08.16.20 at 12:21 am

I started in the Oil and Gas business, in the late 70’s. I was lucky to find a place to use my Education, and prosper. I find it extremely hard to understand, how the World, does not realize that we need all forms, of Energy, to fuel our future. In the end it will be Nuclear, that wins, the long term bet, IMO. In the near term, we just need the consumption, forecasts, to refute Dizzy Lizzies comments.
It is interesting that all the Climate Alarmist, are Non Science folks, who for the life of them couldn’t balance a Hydrocarbon Combustion RX. The world, needs and will depend on all sources of Energy, as the Population continues to expand… Population is the root problem, especially considering the Waste each human generates, but we Need Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Nat Gas, Coal, etc… We simply have to commit to continuous improvement.
The sad part is Canadians, are really leaders in the area… Possibly Japan, has a leg up on a few processes, but we do it better than most other world participants.
Our Leaders, are mostly Non Scientific based participants, and can only Deny and Criticize, even without any real understanding.
There is a lot of Research still needed to address GHG, and as a Scientist, I am concerned about the Peer to Peer review of the IPCC findings, the IPCC also won’t share any of the Climate models, used… So this warrants, further study, and from a Canadian Perspective not a European one… At any rate, if you Fly, Travel, live in a Modern Society, we use FF’s. It seems, to me, if we all collaborate, to agree on Continuous Process Improvement, Demand Management, and Pollution awareness, we can move forward and actually help the world, while ensuring Energy Independence, in a Cold Northern Climate.

#161 AM in MN on 08.16.20 at 12:53 am

So many issues…

Common sense people can’t come to workable solutions and improvements until “leaders” who consider themselves sensible stop pandering to the world is coming to an end crowd.

I recall the predictions of global warming from the Earth Summit in Rio in ’92, and the Kyoto negotiations in ’97. None of what they predicted came true…absolutely nothing and not even close, so let’s deal with that reality first.

Let’s make the Ms. May’s and Bernie Bros own this ongoing fraud of predictions. Whether some of it might come true in 100 years, we’ll see, but the hard fact is everything they have predicted is wrong, all of it!

This can cost real money if you drink the green kool-aid. Remember the idiots from Denver who bought the Port of Churchill thinking that the arctic sea ice was melting? The port is open for 3 months of the year, and that hasn’t changed for 100 years, idiots, and it isn’t going to change in anyone here’s lifetime!

Yesterday CalISO (the power grid operator in California) put 2M people in the dark for 5hr because it was hot (40C) and wind wasn’t blowing and sun had gone down. The future of the green kool-aid drinkers includes these steps back into the pre-industrial ages from time to time as they take that which worked well for many years and shut it down. 2 peaking gas turbines (500MW ea.) that each take up about a football field in size would have saved them.

I am involved in selling electrical equipment for large grid battery systems. There are more huge projects in the queue than we can keep track of. I live the economics of these, and their complex integration and control systems. This market will continue to grow, without much government involvement, because big operators of data centers (you know who they are!) want wind and solar power, and they’re getting it. I’m also deeply involved in operations and economics of natural gas power generation, both large and small scale, and again the significant grid operational challenges as the grid transitions away from large steam turbines, coal and nuke.

Some of the small natural gas plants are used to power greenhouses, which grow vegetables when it’s -30C. The engines also provide heat, an the exhaust is stripped of CO2 which is fed into the greenhouses, where they run levels of 1000ppm+, where people work all day. It’s a complex ecosystem, and the hard science and engineering matter.

When you design (or re-design, because the old design worked well) the power grid and transportation systems based on feelings and fraud, well then you get to enjoy living in a high rise that goes to 48C when the power goes out in a heat wave.

I don’t want to live in that world and there is no reason anyone should, other than it makes them feel morally superior. People vote with their feet though, and will move to places that are functional, clean and safe.

Remember from Grade 9 science, energy cannot be created or destroyed, there cannot be an energy shortage.

#162 Nonplused on 08.16.20 at 1:33 am

#153 the Jaguar on 08.15.20 at 9:37 pm
RE: #129 Nonplused on 08.15.20 at 7:34 pm

Every so often a HOME RUN is hit on this pathetic blog. Nonplused just hit one in the above post.

——————–

Thanks. But I have been in the industry a long time doing mostly analytics so I’m sort of like the illegal ringer at a little league game. Plus Ryan threw me a soft pitch. No offense to Ryan, I think he did a great job, and it is a topic that needs more discussion by people who aren’t still using crayons to express their ideas. Hopefully he dives into it deeper in coming posts.

You can trust me when I say that every major energy company out there has a whole floor of people studying this stuff, and making stacks of paper for the executive to read so they don’t get their asses sued off. BP is the most public with their findings which is why they get quoted so often. But I worked there for a while too and I can assure you they take it very seriously, probably even more so than the EIA. The energy companies have studied it, and the conclusion is simple: They aren’t going away. Sure they put up a few solar panels and windmills, but I call that “greenwashing”. They know their deep sea drilling platforms are still good investments.

#163 Gerhard Greenberg on 08.16.20 at 1:45 am

Sad fact, few know the facts as stated above, including our politicians. Trudeau and May among them and soon the Idiot King Marc Carney, will continue to fight to kill those hundreds of thousands of jobs and hundreds of billions in revenue so they can posture. Obama killed KXL, dating he knew there was no scientific basis for his decision, but he wanted to make a gesture. Gestures don’t put food on the table. As long as you’re prepared to straddle the fence because you simply can’t take a rational position based on science, then you deserve the energy poverty and skyrocketing tax regime that’s sweeping western economies. My advice, grow up, get off the fence. Climate is always changing. 97% of scientists who had their peer review status threatened fell on their swords for self interest, not a belief in climate change. You literally can’t have it both ways. Green carpet baggers are no less voracious than railway barons of previous centuries.

#164 Ha ha on 08.16.20 at 2:02 am

What happens when 1000’s of bikers confront 10 police officers in Sturgis? Well, no looting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mm0DX_-23aE

Trump in a landslide Nov 3.

I think the bikers were actually on the side of the police.

#165 stage1dave on 08.16.20 at 2:22 am

#9 jal

Nailed it!

#63 to hell with Alberta

I get that too, but don’t take it too personally cause I’m from Ontario…with stops in MN, SK, AB (3 times now) and lengthy stops in CA, UT, and IA…guess 2 outta 3 ain’t bad

Gonna generalize a bit here, as happens when discussing large groups of people.

Anyway, what I’ve noticed out here in central AB is a real bunker mentality; combined with a pervasive distrust/suspicion/dislike of easterners in general, Ontarions in particular, and an outright hatred of anything liberal…especially if its federal. (Sometimes methinks Ottawa is a cuss word in these parts)

Lots of water under the bridge, and the currents are still real strong. I can tell from my daily FB feed and frequent conversations with customers that rational discussion & debate isn’t really wanted or welcomed.

Short version: Everything just needs to go back to the way it was (whatever that wasn’t…haha) and the feds need to get lost…period. Getting past O & G & Ag is difficult; any suggestion that a more enlightened and longer-term approach to both industries is required makes people’s eyes glaze over.

As does a mention of BB Aberhardt, long ago bond defaults, or Ernest Manning…tho everyone seems to remember Lougheed. Getty? Didn’t he used to play in the CFL? Klein is practically canonized…Trudeau senior is despised even by people who weren’t even born when he finally retired, and his energy minister ( Mark Lalonde) scarcely remembered. Strange, a very select remembrance of history…

On several occasions, I have brought up the US Justice Dept. civil case against big oil (under Truman) in 1952 I believe; and the reasons for it…more blank stares. (I mention this only to illustrate that AB’s situation is not unique; O & G -and many extractive industries- have a long history of functioning solely for their own benefit, sometimes to the detriment of the local population…or their customers, as in the above mentioned action)

One would think that the current economic circumstances might somehow be laid at the feet of a political party that had been in power for most of the last 50 years, and that voters might have sniffed this out. But nope, it’s the damned feds and those GD’d Dippers that f’d everything up! (Certainly, lots of truth here with the NEP and the feds that engineered it…almost 40 years ago!)

Shortly after Notley’s election, the wife and I encountered a school friend of hers in WalMart that was recently laid off from the patch…after a short tirade against dippers, socialists, and eco-freaks who (apparently) cost him his job, he said NOBODY was going to invest a dime in this province as long as these idiots were running it.

He had (unknowingly, I’m sure) absorbed the first lesson of citizenship in any country that’s fiddling around with the idea of local control over certain resources, and certainly one that any intelligent member of a second or third world country learned long ago…electing governments with certain priorities has economic (and the resulting social) consequences. And sometimes a whole bunch more…almost every country in Central/South America has had some experience with this, or several in the mid east, or…

Certainly, there are lots of peeps out here who I consider more enlightened in general, but most of ’em are bound together by having no solutions in particular. That’s just as bad in my opinion, and as several posters have noted most people are somewhat ignorant of the oil industries contribution to a mechanized society. And just how convenient it makes everything…like, um…I won’t be using solar power in my Surburban to get to work in the morning.

To summarize: tax the resource at the wellhead the way St. Peter did, and get a govt in power that will use the revenues effectively for both the short and long term benefit of people living in Alberta in particular, and the country in general. Maybe try building a refinery to get this WCS ready for the pump and sell a bunch to the rest of the world? There’s a worthwhile PPP…

Such a govt that incentivized a manufacturing structure to produce a finished product might stay busy enuff with that, there wouldn’t be any time to pick fights with doctors, carry on sabotaging the healthcare system, or pushing a continual paranoia about offstage actors (national or international) destroying our economy.

I think we’ve done great job of that all by ourselves…not enuff of us were paying attention (myself included…sometimes) and the people involved with dealing with these transnational corporations were willing to accept payback by way of the resulting tax bite on hundreds of thousands of direct (and indirect) oil related jobs (while foregoing any meaningful tax bite on the resource itself) with apparently no thought as to what might happen when the rigs went silent…and the payroll taxes stopped…because the jobs disappeared.

Ideology must be it’s own reward, apparently…

As always, another great analysis, Mr. Lewenza…wish I could chart some of the intangibles I’ve described above, but not sure if I (or anyone else) would know what to make of them!

#166 technical analysis? on 08.16.20 at 7:57 am

#43 ain’t life rand on 08.15.20 at 1:57 pm
a good mining co, so what?
___________________________________

ounces in the ground is what he bought. and something he has berated, dismissed and ridiculed for decades. barrick is a horribly run mining company.

#167 Another Deckchair on 08.16.20 at 8:08 am

@Nonplussed:

I’d like to see your thoughts on:

1) reference the Old Hubbard peak energy graph, focus on the past the peak downside slope;

2) Figuring out the hysteresis w.r.t. stopping human births, to actual population decline;

3) Taking into account how much Oil is used in food production and distribution;

Q: What would happen w.r.t feeding people if Hubbard’s graph had been right?

I don’t think it would be pretty; what do you think?

Hope you get to read this… Dekkie.

#168 Cto on 08.16.20 at 8:58 am

Why waste your time worrying about all this crap !!?
oil extraction, minerals and Manufacturing are unnecessarily complicated and expensive when you have housing to save the day!
Government, and BOC have given up on those useless industries…
But will take extraordinary measures to save housing speculators.

#169 Do we have all the facts on 08.16.20 at 9:31 am

Oil is a commodity that seems very sensitive to changes in supply and changes in demand.

April 1980. $126.00 per barrel

March 1986. $. 25.00

September 1990. $. 77.00

December 1993. $. 25.00

December 1996. $. 42.00

November 1998. $. 18.00

November 2000. $. 50.00

January 2002. $. 28.00

June 2008. $.166.00

January 2009. $. 51.00

May 2011. $118.00

March 2016. $. 42.00

June 2018. $. 76.00

April 2020. $. 19.00

August 2020 $. 42.00

One can certainly see the logic in predicting an increase in the price of oil as demand increases but questions remain;

Will demand for oil products return to pre Covid levels?

Will the supply of oil continue to be curtailed to maintain a higher price?

Will implementation of the Paris accord have an impact on the demand for oil products?

Will technology improve efficiency and reduce the demand for oil products in the future?

Far to many variables to feel overly confident that the price of oil will reach $60.00 a barrel in the foreseeable
future.

#170 Ryan Lewenza on 08.16.20 at 9:42 am

KNOW IT ALL “Any insight on the Canadian dollar relative to other currencies? A basic 101 on the topic would be helpful.”

I did a blog post on this a while back. The main drivers of the Canadian dollar vs USD are oil prices and the interest rate differential between our two country’s interest rates. I’ll need to update my models for a more precise price target but given my expectations for higher oil prices later this year and into 2021 I see the CAD slowly moving higher. I could see high 70s / low 80s over the next year. – Ryan L

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/01/20/the-dollar-2/

#171 Dharma Bum on 08.16.20 at 9:46 am

#111 Boomer Bill

The gem you carefully avoided mentioning by name is the beautiful Bruce Penninsula and its 100s of kilometres of coastline and the most gorgeous sunsets on the planet.
——————————————————————–

Haha. I figured that anyone who clicked the link and saw the land for sale ad would realize where the area is.
You’re right, though. It sure is nice around there. I was thinking of getting a pilot’s license and also flying up there. Wiarton airport is right around the corner.

#172 MF on 08.16.20 at 9:46 am

#52 MF on 08.15.20 at 2:33 pm
#64 NoName on 08.15.20 at 3:24 pm

NoName,

I’ll just repeat this. It’s the same idea that I was getting at:

#88 Ryan Lewenza on 08.15.20 at 4:54 pm

“It’s about balance. We should be investing in renewables while supporting our O&G sector. There’s too much at stake for our economy and as I said, if we cut our production then someone else will just fill in and we’ll be no better off in combating climate change. – Ryan L”

MF

#173 Dharma Bum on 08.16.20 at 9:53 am

Oil and gas are here to stay.

At least for your lifetime, your children’s lifetimes, your grandchildren’s lifetimes, and your grandchildren’s grandchildren’s lifetimes.

Elizabeth May is a deluded environmentalist whose judgement is clouded by wishful thinking and her devotion to a religious-like cause. Greenism. She is propelled and motivated by “beliefs” and not facts. (She studied Theology after getting a law degree.)

Anyhow, it’s well known that she’s a little dopey and is there to agitate, like all the lefties.

#174 Dharma Bum on 08.16.20 at 9:55 am

Oil and gas are here to stay.

At least for your lifetime, your children’s lifetimes, your grandchildren’s lifetimes, and your grandchildren’s grandchildren’s lifetimes.

Elizabeth May is a deluded environmentalist whose judgement is clouded by wishful thinking and her devotion to a religious-like cause. Greenism. She is propelled and motivated by “beliefs” and not facts. (She studied Theology after getting a law degree.)

Anyhow, it’s well known that she’s a little dopey loves to agitate, like all the nutty lefties.

#175 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.16.20 at 9:56 am

@#76 Where’s My money Gweedo?

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/finance/topstories/big-money-bets-big-on-bc-rental-good-news-for-investors-worst-fears-for-residents/ar-BB17ZF27

=======
Yep
Excellent article.

I live in a 40 year old rental property that was purchased last year by a commercial REIT from Ontario.
The result?
Non stop reno-victions. Jack hammering and sawing Sat and Sun at 8am.
Revolving door resident managers that last a few months and quit due to the confrontations with tenants.
New CERB tenants that sleep all day and scream/party/fight all night.

The landlords tried a rent increase (illegal during Covid).
Rentals on renovated apartments jacked 60% for new tenants.
Parking stalls jacked 100% for new tenants.
But they have lost some very financially stable, quiet, long term renters and the building is going down hill fast.
Lots of empty suites.
The rental office is open on Sundays to attract new tenants.
Crickets.
The internet works both ways and the existing tenants are warning everyone about these overpriced, sub standard, money grubbing “a-holes”….

#176 Ryan2 on 08.16.20 at 10:03 am

Ryan, you spoke a lot of sense today, starting to sound like a Trump supporter?

#177 Don Guillermo on 08.16.20 at 12:23 pm

#9 jal on 08.15.20 at 11:48 am
Keep the oil home.
Refine the oil home.
Manufacture products from oil home.
Export the finished products

*****************************************

I hope you don’t mind Nonplused. I pulled one of your pre covid posts for this. You answer it better than I can.
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I sometime say it would be similar to telling prairie farmers that if you grow wheat – sell it as bread, if you grow canola – sell it as little bottles of oil and if you grow oats – sell cookies.

Although there is a great craft brewery in Strathmore named Origins owned and operated by a barley farming family.

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#28 Nonplused on 12.27.19 at 8:17 pm
#4 Dogman01
“I have always wondered in Alberta, why our local leaders are content to ship the lowest value add product instead of creating an industry and jobs here. (shoving diluted bitumen in a pipe instead of refining the stuff??).”
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It’s because the refining centers and distribution networks already existed in the US before they started importing Canadian oil. Refineries almost always go near the market centers, not near the oil producing regions. (Texas is an exception but that is because it is both a producing and consuming region, and has sea access so it can ship products by barge. And many other exceptions exist like Denver.) You’ll see the same sort of thing with electric power stations, they go near or often in the cities, not thousands of miles away. They need less high voltage transmission lines that way.
There is also a second reason and that involves products. People assume that if we could refine the dilbit in Alberta and ship straight gasoline to the US we would be ahead, but gasoline isn’t the only thing that comes out of the distillation tower. Even after cracking you get tar out of the bottom of the tower, which is used to make roads, asphalt shingles, sealants, paraffins, etc. This stuff can’t be put in pipelines so we would have to ship it (probably by rail) to Texas and other points US.

#178 John on 08.16.20 at 2:54 pm

Elizabeth May needs to tell us where we would get the money to pay for increased welfare demand should we shut down oil production totally and suddenly. Ideology needs to be moderated by reality.

#179 Michael in-north-york on 08.16.20 at 3:04 pm

Nickel, cobalt and lithium that go into the EV batteries, can be recycled after the battery life ends. The eco impact of recycling those metals is a lot less than of mining them.

#180 WHere's My Money Going Gweedeau? To RE Purchases By Corrupt Foreigners!!! on 08.16.20 at 6:20 pm

If it’s not crime gangs it’s corrupt foreigtn officials contributing to Vancouver and in turn, Canada wide explosion of real estate, with shadow flipping etc.:
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/tycoon-slain-in-west-vancouver-linked-to-china-bribery-scandal/
What amount of taxes do these people pay in Canada, if any?

#181 Where's My Money Going Gweedeau? To RE Purchases By Corrupt Foreigners!!! Pt 2 on 08.16.20 at 6:25 pm

And why is the fed/prov civil forfeiture office NOT trying to appropriate these properties bought with illicit monies, like they re always trying to with local criminals/gangs.
Some story behind that I’m sure.
Maybe our esteemed? PM/Premiers can answer that, or does it come too close to the wholesale sell-out of everything Canada.

#182 Where's My Money Going Gweedeau? To RE Purchases By Corrupt Foreigners!!! Pt 3 on 08.16.20 at 6:58 pm

Old-ish story, but more proof of international money laundering (sorry if it has been covered prior, just an addendum to my other 2 posts).
https://globalnews.ca/news/7055099/ontario-bc-crime-group-laundering/

#183 B on 08.16.20 at 10:38 pm

Ryan – have you read any of the IPCC reports? If not, then you are being disingenuous in your argument. Of course oil looks like the best technical and economic solution if you don’t account for any of the catastrophic environmental consequences of it’s continued use. I’m not defending May as I believe her arguments are poorly presented, but you are not fairly addressing the full range of concerns she’s raising.

Examine the underlying causes of the Syrian crisis (for example) and you will see that water shortages exacerbated by climate change are a significant factor. Extrapolate business as usual out another thirty years and just try to wrap your mind around how serious a situation the world could be in if severe water shortages are chronic in most Equatorial parts of the world, notwithstanding all the other extreme weather. At that point it will be too late to pivot to a clean economy – our would could easily descend into choas with such environmental disruption and could easily see widespread warfare, well within my children’s lifetime, and likely within many of your clients investment horizons as well. This is a near certainty unless we change course. I just don’t understand how anybody can justify short term gain in this context – what exactly do people think will be available to buy if these Science-based projections come true?

May is not saying oil isn’t valuable – she’s saying we need to do everything we can within our power to accelerate a transition to cleaner sources. I think deep down everybody knows this, but folks (especially in this comment section) are in various stages of denial.

P.S. Look at recent cost curves for solar, wind, and batteries – all are beating incumbent industries in unsubsidized bases. Lucid EV recently released with an 800 km range. Inflection points approach, incumbent industries and skeptical investment advisors beware.

#184 Piano_Man87 on 08.17.20 at 12:12 pm

No, oil isn’t dead.

We will burn every last recoverable molecule of it because our economic system is dependent on it, and destroy global civilization in the process.

But hey, I guess we can profit off it for now. Silver lining, amirite?