Various

A few things we should get on the record…

Bill vs Mark

This week the prime minister said he had full confidence in Bill Morneau as finance minister. Really?

This came on the heels of two big developments. Fist, Bill royally screwed up by accepting gifts (travel and accommodations) from the creepy WE brothers, then forgetting to pay until being forced to face a Parliamentary inquiry. Worse, he let WE employ his daughter. Even worse, his billionaire wife is a big WE contributor. Worse still, he personally approved giving millions to the charity in the form of a grant. And worst of all, he didn’t recuse himself when Cabinet approved a $900 million contract for student volunteerism that WE would oversee (and profit from).

Bad, Bill. Very bad.

Second, Mark Carney came back to town after serving as the Governor of the Bank of England – a job he took after heading up Canada’s central bank. In fact, he’s the only dude in the world to have been tapped to run two of the planet’s major CBs. Plus, he has experience as a senior guy at Goldman Sachs, along with bone fides as a climate change warrior and, apparently, has a social conscience. Finally, he looks chiseled, cool and unflappable. Never sweats. Makes the stud finders at Home Depot light up.

Prediction: Carney will win a seat as MP in the upcoming Toronto by-election and, by this time next year, be the finance minister. Canada will be better for it. Then he will go on to be prime minister, by the way. Morneau will go back to his $6 million house in Bennington Heights. (I used to own a shack down the street.)

Gold does it again

The bullion-lickers were out in force a few days ago when I dissed the yellow rocks, saying a gold position was wholly inappropriate for most people. The metal soon topped two thousand dollars an ounce before crashing more than a hundred dollars on Tuesday, then rebounding a bit in the next 24 hours. All this proves my point. PMs are intensely volatile, emotional, unpredictable and flaky. They pay no interest and no regular dividends. This makes bullion completely speculative, in the same category as junior resource stocks or the Covid vaccine company your BIL started in his basement. Normal people do not own gold. For good reason.

Gold bugs buy and never sell. They usually refuse to harvest gains, thinking more are coming. Greed is the enemy of investing, of course. It creates gamblers, most of whom fail. As for the metal’s future, it’s as murky as always. Fluctuations are certain but in the absence of runaway inflation, currency collapse or the pandemic wiping out a billion people, the old pattern will continue. Gold is bling. Not money.

How not to fight a bug

Did the countries locking down to fight the virus, thereby idling millions of people and cratering their economies, get it right? Was Covid backed off more than in places which took a different tack?

Nope, no evidence of that, says Prem Gururajan, the CEO of tech startup RideCo and a regular blog dog. “I have read in your recent posts that the social costs/damage caused by the lockdowns outweighs any benefits,” he says. “I agree with your assessment. I have been analyzing the outcomes in lockdown countries vs. countries that did not implement a lockdown – Japan, Sweden, S. Korea, and Taiwan.”

The conclusion: lockdowns don’t work. Masks and hand-washing (and common sense) do. Governments that turn off the economy end up feeding suicide, poverty, depression and economic despair. It’s a failed strategy. In fact, unemployment will kill more people than the virus. By a long shot.

Prem has penned an interesting article on this topic. Read it here. In it he points out how governments wildly, perhaps irresponsibly, inflated the potential mortality of Covid. That was referenced here days ago in reminding you our health minister said between 30% and 70% of Canadians would get sick. So far it is 0.3%.

Click to enlarge

Housing’s dark underbelly

He’s at it again. CMHC boss Evan Siddall is a unique public servant. He says what he thinks, regardless of what his overlords want to hear. And he’s passionate. We need more.

Siddall has warned that the dream of homeownership has the potential for turning nightmarish for those who buy when they actually can’t afford it. His views of the economic future are dark, brooding and cautionary. He thinks we’re a nation of debt junkies, that real estate has turned into a casino and lenders are rapacious. What’s not to love?

So now Siddall has written to bankers and brokers imploring them to stop handing out big mortgages to households that are seriously leveraged as a result. High-risk borrowers should be denied, he maintains, because 5% down mortgages are just feeding potential negative equity. And the current mid-pandemic housing boom is doomed. Later this year prices will retreat when the CERB money evaporates, structural unemployment takes hold and the mortgage deferral cliff arrives.

“We would hope you would reconsider highly leveraged household lending. Please put our country’s long-term outlook ahead of short-term profitability,” he tells the lenders, adding, “there is a dark economic underbelly in this business that I want to expose.”

If Minister Mark doesn’t happen, let it be Evan.

245 comments ↓

#1 Nat on 08.12.20 at 10:47 am

Great stuff Garth. Your unique perspective is a shining light in these times.

#2 low rates 4ever on 08.12.20 at 11:11 am

Interest rates will remain low for decades, because they cannot possibly rise more than a few bps before people (and government and corps) get into deep trouble.

At the first sign of trouble, rates will be lowered again, as we have seen several times already.

Rates have been declining since the 80’s people, about time you caught onto the trend.

Going long is wrong.

#3 Captain Uppa on 08.12.20 at 11:13 am

Always liked Carney.

As for Siddall, you have to respect his courage. There are a lot of slugs in RE, I just hope they don’t wind up taking good people down with them; unlikely.

#4 Lefty on 08.12.20 at 11:16 am

PM Carney (and the ejection of the T2/Butts/Morneau show) would be a real win for our wonderful country. Plus, our ethics commissioner could finally take a vacation.

#5 the Jaguar on 08.12.20 at 11:16 am

My heart soars when I read Evan Siddall’s words. How often does that happen these days?

In a perfect world we would have a dream team with people like Mark Carney, Evan Siddall, Nigel Wright, and maybe we’ll throw Peter MacKay a bone leading this nation in non partisan unity. Jaguar would work their security detail for free.

The article by Prem Gururajan echos a similar one I read by social critic Heather MacDonald.
Dolce Vita might find the small excerpt below interesting as it references his beloved Italia.:

By mid-March, two weeks before the Imperial College model was published, Italian health data showed that the coronavirus was terribly lethal to a very small subset of the population—the elderly infirm—and a minor health problem to nearly everyone else who was not already severely ill. The median age of coronavirus decedents in Italy was 80, and they died with a median of nearly three comorbidities, such as heart disease and diabetes. The lead author of the Imperial College model has admitted that up to two-thirds of all coronavirus fatalities would have died from their comorbidities by the end of 2020 anyway.

#6 willworkforpickles on 08.12.20 at 11:19 am

Evan to the rescue. I’m for that.

#7 joblo on 08.12.20 at 11:21 am

Mark, good luck.
Kanada is done, but good luck.

#8 Felix on 08.12.20 at 11:24 am

What a dogawful photo.

That is what Hell looks like.

#9 DjHashBrown on 08.12.20 at 11:25 am

Siddall is the guy who should have direct action capabilities. IMHO ,his tag team with Carney would be as good as Hulk and Machos tag team , indestructible. Also we need them to get Canada back on track before the rails fall off. Mr Garth you 2 centss??????????

#10 David Pylyp on 08.12.20 at 11:27 am

I was out last night on a Multiple offer

$1,050k
My Buyer Bid $1,128K

$100,000 bank draft with offer.

25 other offers were on the table.
Last 6 months are no comp sales in that Toronto GRID that support that value. ( Real Estate is local )

Someone stepped up at $ 1.6MM

24 people are consoling their clients and didn’t make a sale. I am hiding under my blanket and watching other sales to see if this is indeed the new Market Price.

The New Normal is a Brave new World.
What happens post #CERB?

Toronto
David Pylyp

#11 ronh on 08.12.20 at 11:28 am

Gold is bling. Not money. I agree with you that gold is not an investment. Never in 5000 years has it been.
J P Morgan, the man himself said Gold is Money, everything else is credit. CRA treats it as an investment.

#12 Dirty Dan on 08.12.20 at 11:29 am

> Did the countries locking down to fight the virus, thereby idling millions of people and cratering their economies, get it right?

Governments can attribute deaths to COVID-19 that would otherwise be caused by general flu or pneumonia. Or they can outright lie and count a motorcycle death as COVID-19 related. Maybe the virus did accelerate some deaths by pulling them forward.

One thing a country (first world) can’t really lie about is the total number of deaths. At the end of 2020 we can match the TOTAL NUMBER of deaths against 2019, 2018, … and there won’t be any hiding it. If there isn’t a significant spike in deaths then this was a sham.

Hopefully they tax the sale of primary residences to pay for all of this. :)

#13 Howard on 08.12.20 at 11:29 am

Garth, for someone who has decried the housing bubble for a decade, you sure have a lot of admiration for the guy that inflated it (with an assist from the Plozzer).

Actually Carney warned often about excessive household debt. I would fault the Harper government more than the CB for kicking things off. – Garth

#14 Dirty Dan on 08.12.20 at 11:34 am

TAIWAN – the model for COVID-19 handling… ???

If you follow the link Garth provided it shows Taiwan merely swapped COVID-19 deaths for general flu/pnumonia

https://miro.medium.com/max/1000/1*BKL5URX94l2bVDC_NanLPQ.jpeg

In fact they had more OVERALL deaths from virus (COVID-19 and flu) than other countries!

#15 MF on 08.12.20 at 11:35 am

Who is Prem?

Just some guy? Or qualified professional on the matter?

“Lockdown” was carried out in various forms all around the world and is not a singular event. Some countries had people unable to leave their house certain times of the day, some were more watered down.

Our “lockdown” was tame in comparison.

Culture is important too. Sweden (who fared worse than other Scandinavian countries that locked down btw) did better than Western Europe did. Why? Culture. People listened to the advice of the government. Would we do the same? Possibly. Who knows. Not Prem though.

Conclusion: too early to tell. Some post by an unknown is just that. An opinion piece (they can cite stats too). Would Canada have fared worse or better without a lockdown? Too early to tell.

MF

#16 blogshark on 08.12.20 at 11:36 am

And yet Bill will be our finance minister until he decides not to be. And Trudeau will be delivered a majority and a mandate to govern the likest of which have not been seen since the 80s.

Corruption does not matter in politics anymore, Trudeau is bulletproof, and has the media on his side 100%. Paul Martin must be kicking himself.

#17 Stan Brooks on 08.12.20 at 11:37 am


Actually Carney warned often about excessive household debt. I would fault the Harper government more than the CB for kicking things off. – Garth

Yep, I am hearing drug dealers these days choose to warn their customers about the danger from their ‘products’.

No that it is in the law, but just to cya,

#18 FreeBird on 08.12.20 at 11:39 am

Royal immigrants (refugees?) Duke/Duchess and friends of JT involved in WE. Ironically have their own charity issues. Interesting. Long list of big names tied to WE.

https://www.we.org/en-CA/about-we/our-founders/

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en_us/article/pkyqwb/justin-trudeau-billion-dollar-we-charity-scandal-is-a-story-of-power-branding-and-kielburger-charity

#19 SeeB on 08.12.20 at 11:47 am

Always interesting stuff:

“Did the countries locking down to fight the virus, thereby idling millions of people and cratering their economies, get it right?”

Yes and no.

No. The shutdowns have gone on way too long. We know what works now (masks and handwashing) and we ought to be getting back to business with those protections in place. However, you go anywhere in Canada now and people are barely wear masks indoors, and people that already didn’t wash their hands after going to the bathroom aren’t going to modify their behaviour…

Yes. At the beginning, the experts really didn’t know how different populations were going to be affected with the virus. Way too much history of populations in the past getting swamped by diseases “novel” to them.

Yes. They rightly predicted how hard it was going to be to get people to follow simple instructions – Don’t gather in large groups, wash your hands, wear a mask, don’t stand so close you’re breathing on each other – has proven too complicated for 50% or more of the population to follow, so lock-downs persist.

Yes. We still don’t know the long term effects of surviving the virus. Stories of people losing limbs to blood clots, permanent impairment to breathing, permanent damage to all organs due to viral assault and oxygen deprivation (brain included)… and these are the scars we know about.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/survivors-severe-covid-19-beating-virus-just-beginning

People playing arm-chair quarterback and calling the entire endeavor bunk after the lock-down scenario has already unfolded is not wisdom. It’s like anyone coming here with some obvious stock picks that’d make you rich “if you’d only bought them last year”.

It’s like you say all the time Garth, it’s about managing risk. Leaders and experts have clearly overshot the estimate, and MUST correct. The constant stream of fear has only made this harder for everyone.

#20 Sam on 08.12.20 at 11:47 am

> If Minister Mark doesn’t happen, let it be Evan.

Why would you think Carney would be a better politician (or less of a flash in the pan) than Michael Ignatieff

#21 Damifino on 08.12.20 at 11:56 am

#8 Felix

What a dogawful photo. That is what Hell looks like.
——————————-

Not at all. That’s just a preview of the next cabinet. And a confident looking troupe they are. We expect much.

#22 kingston boy on 08.12.20 at 11:56 am

@#13 Howard on 08.12.20 at 11:29 am
Garth, for someone who has decried the housing bubble for a decade, you sure have a lot of admiration for the guy that inflated it (with an assist from the Plozzer).

Actually Carney warned often about excessive household debt. I would fault the Harper government more than the CB for kicking things off. – Garth
//////////////////////////

yup.
harper/flaherty initiated all this nonsense.

#23 IHCTD9 on 08.12.20 at 11:57 am

#155 Montana Bob on 08.12.20 at 9:57 am
113 IHCTD9 on 08.11.20 at 10:03 pm
I think there is disconnect somewhere there.
If risky loans are backed by private insurers, why is CMHC on hook ? CMHC can decline insurance for those and it will be bank issue. CMHC can make their own policy and insure what passes their own regulation. Obviously CMHC did not do their homework properly and they were insuring everything. And now they are afraid that they have to cover a lots of defaults. How come circumvented risky loans are still insured by CMHC ?
I guess CMHC has more information and data and they know much more than what they publicly say.
To me this looks like perfect storm.
___

I don’t think it matters in the event of a Mortgage market meltdown if a bank has private mortgage insurance on this or that house.

If a large crapload of mortgage defaults happen such that the banking system starts to fail (private insurers might pay out a few claims – but go broke quick in a GFC type scenario) – I believe the CMHC would still be on the hook to save the banks. Their concern is the system – not this or that house.

They don’t care about a risky loan here or there – but they do care about the entire banking sector carrying on with risky mortgage loans via private insurance while knowing the CMHC is still there to bail them all out if it blows up (like it did in the US).

#24 CERB out on 08.12.20 at 11:57 am

Just when we thought someone may put the big panties on and make a decision, BC has once again decided to delay schools returning.

Leadership has become laughable. No one dare make a decision as they risk being cancelled.

With CERB done, us parents need more life rings to survive so many months at home with the little ones.

Less cat doors and more CERB, please.

#25 VBNB on 08.12.20 at 11:59 am

Sweden has the highest death rate among Nordic countries. Taiwan had a lock-down and quarantined a lot of people and cities. Japan was trying to keep the Olympics going and once that is postponed, immediately went into lockdown of several major cities. South Korea had massive quarantine and lockdowns.

As well, people in Asia follow protocols like oh I don’t know wearing masks?! Social distancing, putting up barriers in stores, contact tracing, etc! Quarantine as in literally not able to leave the house.

The kind of quarantine / shutdown we had in Canada would be considered a joke in most of East Asia. That’s why the death rate in East Asia is so low. Heck, Canada with the population of Shanghai / Beijing has more cases and deaths than Entire CHINA of 1.4 BILLION people already!

Also, I would hate to be volunteered by sacrificed for the sake of economy by someone like Prem so they can keep rolling in the $$$. I consider my life to be a little bit more precious than a few hundred thousand $$$. Gosh…and we say life is in cheap in Asia. Seems like rich people would like it to be even cheaper here.

#26 Madcat on 08.12.20 at 12:03 pm

Carney (along with his pals David Dodge and Jim Flaherty) were the people in charge at the beginning of this mess. They did nothing to prevent the situation we are in today and with 100% certainty they knew what the consequences of their decisions would be…

Back in 2005 mortgage lending rules should have been tightened as they eased rates (higher down payment requirements, shorter amortization periods, stricter income to loan ratio etc) …. Housing should never have been taken out of the basket of goods used to measure inflation.

My vote would be with Evan.

#27 Danforth on 08.12.20 at 12:09 pm

Hi Garth,

For which party do you anticipate Mark Carney to:
– take an MP seat in a byelection
– serve as Minister of Finance
– serve as Prime Minister

Liberal or Conservative?

#28 Take note on 08.12.20 at 12:11 pm

Hopefully Bill(shame), Mark and Evan have respectfully noted.

#29 willworkforpickles on 08.12.20 at 12:15 pm

#57 willworkforpickles – from yesterday’s thread (today)
Insured mortgages have been steadily declining since 2015. According to CMHC about 160000 (20%) of deferrals that are uninsured could be headed for default after the monthly deferral payment holiday ends.
#58 willworkforpickles – from yesterday’s thread (today)
160000 distressed uninsured sellers hitting the market all at once? (2021)
Wouldn’t that be a smash hit. Million dollar homes in the mix that didn’t qualify for default insurance maybe back on the market at half price.
The non greater fool birds of prey with cash money are circling giddy with glee.

…just wanted to add to that…

The non greater fools (not fools) with cash money laying in wait are not of the reckless greater fool variety needlessly overspending buying real estate currently.
In fact they are the exact opposite. Laying in wait knowing they will pick up distressed real estate for much lower than today’s gasbag prices in the coming correction.
After many of the now dwindling qualified garden variety greater fool has left the building or are few and far between. (A number of them will become non greater fools as history repeats)…. those with cash money will gradually dominate purchases as tighter lending restrictions come into effect.
These are the buyers to come, amongst whom bidding wars are not, have never been, nor ever will be a part of their vocabulary’s. Those of which who don’t get what they want for the price they want simply walk away.
After-all, they’re all loaded. They buy low and buy low always. Who among them really need to pay more?
A long…long….long forgotten term often used so very long ago called – a buyers market – rules the day with this cash money non greater fool crowd.

#30 Notwithstanding on 08.12.20 at 12:16 pm

There’s no doubt homes have become unaffordable. But let’s face it, it truly is the only way to get the majority to save part of their pay cheque each month.

The days of one’s primary residence not being a retirement plan are done. Downsizing in your 70s to free up cash or taking a reverse mortgage are sound strategies. The former is tax free. And sooner than later it will also force golden oldies to free up the larger homes to families.

I have 1,850 sq ft divided by 5 occupants. Most in my neighborhood are in their 70s with homes over 2,500 sq divided by 2 occupants.

#31 JB on 08.12.20 at 12:18 pm

Second, Mark Carney came back to town after serving as the Governor of the Bank of England – a job he took after heading up Canada’s central bank. In fact, he’s the only dude in the world to have been tapped to run two of the planet’s major CBs. Plus, he has experience as a senior guy at Goldman Sachs, along with bone fides as a climate change warrior and, apparently, has a social conscience. Finally, he looks chiseled, cool and unflappable. Never sweats. Makes the stud finders at Home Depot light up.

Prediction: Carney will win a seat as MP in the upcoming Toronto by-election and, by this time next year, be the finance minister. Canada will be better for it. Then he will go on to be prime minister, by the way. Morneau will go back to his $6 million house in Bennington Heights. (I used to own a shack down the street.)
………………………………………………………………
One could only hope and pray for this to come to fruition. Brooming T2 would be wonderful, seeing him and his whole family have to go out and make an honest living on the streets like the rest of us. Oh sorry I forgot Daddy left him oodles of cash.

#32 cto on 08.12.20 at 12:19 pm

Siddall had to plead with these people? Just words…
Where is policy??? Where is regulation???
He should be the cop! not the sniveling little wuss nobody listens to.
I say this with all due respect to the man, because he does have guts which must be pissing off his over-lords who are primed and ready to throw in the “YES” man/woman as soon as he’s out!!!

#33 Danforth on 08.12.20 at 12:30 pm

I’m seeing that the riding Garth is alluding to is York Centre.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By-elections_to_the_43rd_Canadian_Parliament

The incumbent is a liberal, who resigned to pursue work outside of elected office. Last day in office is Sept 1st, 2020.

York Centre went Liberal last election with 50% of the vote.
The conservative candidate scored 37% of the vote.

#34 JB on 08.12.20 at 12:35 pm

#30 Notwithstanding on 08.12.20 at 12:16 pm

There’s no doubt homes have become unaffordable. But let’s face it, it truly is the only way to get the majority to save part of their pay cheque each month.

The days of one’s primary residence not being a retirement plan are done. Downsizing in your 70s to free up cash or taking a reverse mortgage are sound strategies. The former is tax free. And sooner than later it will also force golden oldies to free up the larger homes to families.

I have 1,850 sq ft divided by 5 occupants. Most in my neighborhood are in their 70s with homes over 2,500 sq divided by 2 occupants.
………………………………………………………………….
Downsizing too early is a killer for most empty nesters. They don’t think through all of the pitfalls of the smaller space and end up eating each other. Just put two goldfish in a very small bowl and watch the carnage happen. People need space.

#35 disappointed guy on 08.12.20 at 12:35 pm

I blame the clickbait fear selling media cycle for the over-reaction of the virus. It’s hard to have a measured response when everyone is panicking.

The clickbait business model of online news has to end and be heavily regulated. It encourages the spread of misinformation and fear which has proved to be extremely damaging.

#36 Carney? on 08.12.20 at 12:40 pm

Actually Carney warned often about excessive household debt. I would fault the Harper government more than the CB for kicking things off. – Garth

———————————————————–

Yes but incessantly warning people about excessive debt and interest rate hikes that never happened while he kept them in the ditch and dumping copious liquidity into our beloved and mortgage loving banks the whole time while he was governor, isn’t really saying or doing much is it? He did the exact same thing in England. Sorry if many of us are not terribly impressed.

#37 Canadarm 2 on 08.12.20 at 12:41 pm

I amortized my mortgage with 20% down payment for 10 years back in 2002 and the math proved that the bank made MOST of its’ interest in the first 5 years.

I would say the gold bugs aren’t the only segment of society driven by greed. The major difference is that the banks are insured against loss by CMHC, which is actually YOU, the taxpayer. For banks, it’s win-win. Unlikely they will EVER show restraint towards mortgage-seekers until such time that they are culpable for their own losses. Let’s see if Carney can influence THAT. I hope he can.

#38 dr talc on 08.12.20 at 12:42 pm

And some here call TurnerNation a conspiracy theorist??
Folks, the We scandal is a B-Movie script. Just re read Garths list of M’s missteps- it’s not possible, not credible, not even plausible that That sequence of mistakes could go hand in hand with 2’s ‘errors in judgement’.
Ask yourself, does T2 have a handler? of course he does.

#39 Do we have all the facts on 08.12.20 at 12:44 pm

The rules governing the mortgage backed securities market in Canada seem to be expanding. In March CMHC announced that uninsured mortgages could be pooled into a NHA MBS and used to back a Canada Mortgage Bond.

Is it possible that mortgages being issued by smaller financial institutions and insured by private companies that are not strictly committed to established stress tests could be eventually by included in a NHA MBS if the number of qualified buyers shrinks and housing prices begin to fall.

The housing crisis in the US occurred because the Government got addicted to housing and allowed sketchy practices to become entrenched. Eric Siddall seems to be warning that our addiction to a perpetual increase in house prices may be clouding the judgement of all those involved.

If we begin pooling toxic mortgages in NHA MBS and using the NHA MBS to support Canada Mortgage Bonds that end up being purchased by the Bank of a Canada the risk of default will end up with Canadian taxpayers. I would like to think that this scenario is impossible but actions of our Federal government over the past five months have given me cause for concern.

Stress tests mean nothing if they are not strictly enforced.

#40 Russian COVID Vaccine Developer on 08.12.20 at 12:51 pm

Dear Comrade Turner,

Thank you for releasing to us the personal contact information for all the deplorables in this comments section.

They will be an important part of our vaccine testing process beginning today. Anal and oral insertions of the virus and vaccine will begin at 9 pm Moscow time today.

If any of your readers experience discomfort (if you care) we recommend Smirnoff in 6 oz servings.

X

#41 Tom on 08.12.20 at 12:57 pm

Evan is losing major market share and revenue to private insurers. His latest plee for lenders to pull back on risk reeks of desperation.

If CMHC loses its marketplace clout, the foxes take over the henhouse. Siddall is correct to fight against greed, avarice and myopia. – Garth

#42 IHCTD9 on 08.12.20 at 1:00 pm

Every time RE buyers in the GTA lose their minds and start bidding up these steaming crap pile dump houses, I head straight for the local MLS website.

I always find what I’m looking for – home owners with a line in the water jigging for GTA escapees. These listings are always a hoot if you know the local market.

The best tall-tale on there right now is only a 5 minute drive from the IHCTD9 bunker facility. Nice rural subdivision with 500-600K homes on an acre or two – dead end road with a treed cul-de-sac and quite nice all around.

Pretty much all the houses are souped up High Ranches, bungalows, and Colorados with the requisite backyard pools, hot tubs, decks, 2 car garages, nice landscaping etc…

All except for one – the nicest home on the road. 1 acre featureless lot, but beautiful house inside and out. All the fancy stuff is there too, like an upstairs master bedroom with twin walk-in closets, beautiful ensuite, a fireplace and a timber framed second story walk out deck that is covered by the main roof and complete with an outside hot tub and glass deck railings. Price? 950K. The house next door is a 500K max high ranch.

I know a couple who live on the road, and all the home owners are waiting with bated breath to see what goes down – the sale, or the listing haha. It’s likely high by 200K minimum.

Usually these expeditions fail with the house simply being taken off the market, because they never needed to sell. But, it only takes 1 or 2 6-700K houses to get bid up near a million per year to have everyone find out, and keep the dream alive lol!

#43 Don Guillermo on 08.12.20 at 1:04 pm

Blanchet says he will try to trigger a fall election if the 3 bandits don’t resign.

#44 FreeBird on 08.12.20 at 1:16 pm

Yesterday commenter here linked info on S Dak Gov. Noem whose choice to go against lock down protocol has been controversial. Her approach seems to be in empowering residents with info and guidelines as/when avail (also accused of ignoring some) to residents and allowing them to act accordingly by choice vs heavy handed or fear based. She also seems to be one of very few officials resisting opportunity for greater reach of power. It seems to be working (infection rates kept low) but they may still regret it but plenty of debate right now. Reportedly she’s already deflecting future POTUS aspirations.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/coronavirus-south-dakota-governor-kristi-noem-disparages-masks-students/

https://m.facebook.com/govnoem/

Current POTUS wanted Mt Rushmore head? No comment.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.azfamily.com/news/us_world_news/white-house-reached-out-to-south-dakota-governor-about-adding-trump-to-mount-rushmore-nyt/article_80dd4ab0-343d-5ce7-895a-41721d18e2a7.amp.html

#45 MaxtheTax on 08.12.20 at 1:18 pm

REITs in trouble on the mall front:

“There’s no way to candy coat it,” he said. “I think that we potentially are heading toward a commercial real estate crisis, particularly as it affects regional malls.”

HBC CrappyTire toast?

Most REITs do not hold at-risk retail. In any case, leases have to be honoured. – Garth

#46 Danforth on 08.12.20 at 1:27 pm

The idea of Mark Carney running for MP in the York Centre by election – as a Liberal – is also well documented in this article of two days ago:

https://nationalpost.com/news/wheres-mark-carney-with-no-suitable-vacancy-in-ottawa-hell-be-serving-the-country-as-advisor-on-economic-recovery

We could very well be in for:
– a mid-term resignation by T2
– a party convention to anoint a new Liberal party leader, and therefore new PM
– New PM (Carney?) running for re-election with the benefit of incumbency

This is also the story of Kim Campbell.

#47 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.12.20 at 1:29 pm

Are the adults returning to government to start cleaning up the mess?

I have to say, Evan has been right on, and here I thought he was just another connected liberal lackey since he’s so close to Scott Brison.

Blanchet has called on Morneau, Trudeau and Telford to resign immediately or face a no confidence. I guess he didn’t appreciate the me-too assassination attempt. Honestly there’s very little that these 3 have done well for the country and I’d be glad to see new management take over.

I agree with some of the pundits that it’s pretty low class of Trudeau to skip question period today since it will be Andrew Scheer’s last as leader. Sunny ways.

#48 SoggyShorts on 08.12.20 at 1:30 pm

#117 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 08.11.20 at 10:22 pm
#102 Sail Away on 08.11.20 at 9:08 pm

If SpaceX is privately held, how do you profit?

By owning over-priced TSLA, which magically allows Elon’s musk to rub off on you?
+++++++++++++++++++++++
#124 Ace Goodheart on 08.11.20 at 10:57 pm
Tesla share holders:
Space-X is a private company.
Space-x is not owned by Tesla.
Tesla share holders have no interest in Space-X
Repeat after me………….

******************
If you think Elon’s actions outside of TESLA don’t have an effect on share price, I think you’re missing something.

#49 Joseph R. on 08.12.20 at 1:42 pm

#43 Don Guillermo on 08.12.20 at 1:04 pm
Blanchet says he will try to trigger a fall election if the 3 bandits don’t resign.

———————————————-

Call for a surprise election during a pandemic. That’s going to teach Trudeau.

#50 Inequity on 08.12.20 at 1:48 pm

#2 low rates 4ever

what is it about this blog that attracts the bandwidth trolls?
Always with new names, offering their opinion with no history or credibility… as if anyone would listen.

#51 Bill on 08.12.20 at 1:50 pm

Garth you are bang on all points I beielieve.
Mark C will gives me some optimism about our future.
T2 and Bill scary the hell out of me. How stupid can one be?

I sent out a warning to friends 3 days prior to the Gold silver wacking.
You are correct most should stay away unless you completely understand that market. I sold all my stuff 2010-11 silver at 49 buks.
We hit $2,750 CND fell 200 plus here. Far to volitile for most but im still up $1000 in 2 yrs on my core. Im not a G bug.

Housing…..Ive got cash to buy another house but not planning to do so unless it pulls way back. House madness is happening but will a messy world Kanada could have lots of buyer swing in….

#52 Don Guillermo on 08.12.20 at 1:54 pm

#49 Joseph R. on 08.12.20 at 1:42 pm
#43 Don Guillermo on 08.12.20 at 1:04 pm
Blanchet says he will try to trigger a fall election if the 3 bandits don’t resign.

———————————————-

Call for a surprise election during a pandemic. That’s going to teach Trudeau

**************************************
Nothing will ever teach Trudeau. It’s been blatantly obvious he’s unteachable. Do you have trouble voting with your mask on?

#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.12.20 at 2:01 pm

Prem is a regular dog on this post?
Who could he be?
I hope he comes out of the closet, and face the blog dogs for a friendly exchange of ideas.

#54 Ronaldo on 08.12.20 at 2:02 pm

We need more Evans in government. Voice of reason and common sense. Something that is severly lacking nowadays.

#55 Ace Goodheart on 08.12.20 at 2:06 pm

Problem you have in Canada is on one side of things, you have Trudeau and Morneau, two trust fund babies with limited real life experience, and on the other, you have a leaderless zombie party with no policy or platform, that everyone equates to “dirty oil interests” from Alberta.

In between the two you have a left wing socialist playing king maker, and a separatist party that supports no one and has it’s own private, province specific agenda.

It’s a recipe for disaster and it’s playing out right now like a never ending, slow motion train wreck.

#56 Linda on 08.12.20 at 2:13 pm

Normal people do buy gold – jewelry, that is:) Owning bars of the stuff may be fun, but I’m flashing on Gollum & ‘my precious’.

So is the idea Carney will replace the invisible man Scheer as leader of the PC party? Or is he meant to replace JT as the leader of the Liberals? Guess it doesn’t matter as long as he becomes the next PM (prime minister, not precious metals) as predicted.

#57 Piano_Man87 on 08.12.20 at 2:14 pm

Maybe lockdowns don’t work.

Masks also don’t work if you can’t get people to wear them. We still can’t. Go into a store in rural Saskatchewan and people will openly mock you for wearing one.

Part of public health is that it is more than just science. You need the public to buy in to the measures or they are pointless.

I wouldn’t expect a guy trying to sell a transit app to get that.

Want to know why Taiwan had almost no cases? Universal mask wearing almost immediately. If you had the virus and were quarantining at home, the government tracked your location via your smartphone. If your phone even merely lost power, cops would be knocking at your door in an hour.

I think the data actually shows that it is not lockdown vs no lockdown that predicted outcomes, it is social cooperation vs no social cooperation in conjunction with a well educated and informed public.

#58 Mehling on 08.12.20 at 2:18 pm

Thanks Garth – Canadians would be extremely fortunate to have Mr.Carney as FM or PM…one can dream.

PS – I really enjoyed the estate planning / executor post last week. Noted, pay the 4%. Appreciated.

#59 MF on 08.12.20 at 2:31 pm

#10 David Pylyp on 08.12.20 at 11

Lol at this realtor propaganda.

Maybe they will drop interest rates to -10% and give another “mortgage deferral” to this joke of an industry.

MF

#60 Ronaldo on 08.12.20 at 2:40 pm

#12 Dirty Dan

Hopefully they tax the sale of primary residences to pay for all of this. :)
——————————————————————Good one Dan. Or, maybe they can claw back the old age pensions from people making over $22000. That would sure shake up a lot of geezers like me wouldn’t it? Even those with incomes of $75000.

#61 Ace Goodheart on 08.12.20 at 2:40 pm

#48 soggy shorts:

I think Elon’s activities outside of Tesla DO effect Tesla’s share price. That is one of the things that worries me the most about Tesla.

You have a company whose price to earnings ratio could be used to measure the distance from the Earth to the Moon and when people like me point this out, one of the responses I get is: but Space-X is getting lots of government contracts!!!!

So what? Space-X isn’t Tesla.

Re: lock downs: when this whole COVID thing started, I said that lock downs made no sense, because COVID mostly kills old people.

With a few exceptions, most old people are pretty locked down anyway (when was the last time your grandma went to a big Toronto night club?).

I got destroyed on online comments forums.

People said horrible things. I began to fear for my safety.

So I just gave up. I got thrown out of my job, sent home, forgotten about. I took it as a vacation. I am independently wealthy. I don’t need to work anyway.

Sometimes I had to avoid bylaw officers in parks, who were handing out $800.00 fines for walking on the grass (illegal during the COVID lock down). One time I had to explain to two nice officers why I was out of my house with my two year old on a walk. I feared i might get arrested and have my child end up in foster care as i was an irresponsible parent out getting fresh air during a pandemic lock down. I lied to get out of it. Told them we were walking to go stand in the social distance lines to get groceries.

The thing with COVID is it kills the 50+.

Those are the people in charge of our societies.

Old people fear death.

Young people do not. You are immortal until you hit around age 45 then the midlife crisis hits and you realize for the first time that it is 100% certain that you are going to die.

If COVID killed only people ages 20-25 there would have been no lock down. The old folks in charge would just have told those kids to quarantine and wait for a vaccine.

Geriocracy has its downfalls.

#62 Stone on 08.12.20 at 2:52 pm

#15 MF on 08.12.20 at 11:35 am
Who is Prem?

Just some guy? Or qualified professional on the matter?

“Lockdown” was carried out in various forms all around the world and is not a singular event. Some countries had people unable to leave their house certain times of the day, some were more watered down.

Our “lockdown” was tame in comparison.

Culture is important too. Sweden (who fared worse than other Scandinavian countries that locked down btw) did better than Western Europe did. Why? Culture. People listened to the advice of the government. Would we do the same? Possibly. Who knows. Not Prem though.

Conclusion: too early to tell. Some post by an unknown is just that. An opinion piece (they can cite stats too). Would Canada have fared worse or better without a lockdown? Too early to tell.

MF

———

I agree with MF. Anyone can print something on Medium. Also, a CEO never writes their own articles. They have a communication manager for that and then it gets parsed through multiple levels to ensure it doesn’t cause problems for the company. Lastly, think about the company Prem is employed by. Are they negatively impacted by the shutdowns that occurred? Methinks yes. Very much so.

I do like how all these “experts” are backwards looking trying to blame someone for their own ills instead of looking forward and seeing the opportunities that come up when things change.

Prem, you’re a CEO. Can’t you pivot the company to take advantage of the new world order? Isn’t that what they pay you the big bucks for?

Maybe you should critique the content, not diss the writer. Otherwise we are tempted to utterly dismiss you. – Garth

#63 Jay on 08.12.20 at 2:53 pm

Carney will take one look at the mess this government has left and run for the hills. Why would he want to fix the biggest fiscal mess ever created. The only way out is to either tax to death or cut, both unpopular paths.

The only thing Canada has to sell is natural resources, and we cant even develop that anymore either.

#64 Bill on 08.12.20 at 2:59 pm

For TurnerNation and others that are awake.
I personally called this stuff out since day one. I go by provable facts.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/new-add-depicts-2020-election-as-a-war/

#65 yvr_lurker on 08.12.20 at 3:02 pm

Seems rather biased to focus on the opinion of some CEO techie (with no detailed understanding of epidemics) and to essentially completely dismiss offhand the paper in the leading scientific journal Nature, which was linked yesterday, and written collectively by leading experts.

The only way we could have avoided a lockdown would have been to respond MUCH sooner than we did. Cut the international flights, close the borders, and try to reduce the numbers to where contact tracing can be done. This is step one. However, 5 months ago the effect of masks was unclear to us here, although Asian countries have had a long habit of wearing them in public. Step 2: once border are sealed (with monitored quarantine of new arrivals) in a way that contact tracing can be done on localized pockets, then one can open up businesses and get people back to work wearing masks and using good hand hygene. However, without step 1 you can never get to step 2 without flooding hospitals with the sick. Citizens also have to be sufficiently compliant to accept wearing masks, and to social distance, and not consider it an afront on their “civil liberties” that they would defend to their death. Witness all of the crazy stuff that is happening daily south of the border. Do you want to be there? They never made a concerted focus to complete step 1. Have a read from an article from Wade Davis

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/covid-19-end-of-american-era-wade-davis-1038206/

My view is that Austraiia, Canada, and New Zealand gauged the situation well (except that Austrailia was too lax in enforcing and monitoring quarantines and now Melbourne is paying the price).

I do agree that Canada has to find a way to encourage those who can to get back to work and to help small businesses survive this. Can’t continue to feed this debt, now that we are safely (for the most part) at step 2. However, there are industries (airlines, tourism, events, conventions, prop sports) etc.., that are going to be impacted for years until some type of effective Covid treatment comes online.

#66 the Jaguar on 08.12.20 at 3:04 pm

@#41 Tom on 08.12.20 at 12:57 pm
Evan is losing major market share and revenue to private insurers. His latest plea for lenders to pull back on risk reeks of desperation

If CMHC loses its marketplace clout, the foxes take over the henhouse. Siddall is correct to fight against greed, avarice and myopia. – Garth
+++++++++++++

Re: Public versus Private Insurers or those who may otherwise be referred to as ‘Foxes in the Henhouse….
It pays to know which Foxes one is climbing into bed with, because they may abandon the ship when it’s going down. Just like good old MICC did in Alberta back in the 1980’s. But ancient warrior Banks have memories like elephants. As if MICC didn’t know what the statutes of the Law of Property Act were when they got into the Henhouse in the first place. Weasels.

“Third, these events had quite a dramatic impact on the only private
guarantee company operating in Alberta, Mortgage Insurance Company of
Canada (“MICC”).
Quite apart from the huge financial losses to date, MICC has suffered a significant loss of
business goodwill. That company, in its contracts, has an option which
requires lenders to accept 25% of the loss on foreclosures and leave them
with the property. MICC has invoked this clause and has suggested that
had it not done so, the company’s losses would have amounted to more than
$800 million in Alberta alone.
In 1984, MICC decided to withdraw from the
Alberta market. In its opinion, “the withdrawal was necessary because it
was impossible to underwrite mortgage loans in a market where borrowers
were under no obligation to pay their mortgages and could deliberately
default anytime they felt it was in their financial interest to do so”

#67 Ronaldo on 08.12.20 at 3:17 pm

#34 JB

Downsizing too early is a killer for most empty nesters. They don’t think through all of the pitfalls of the smaller space and end up eating each other. Just put two goldfish in a very small bowl and watch the carnage happen. People need space.
————————————————————-
1250 s.f. each?? Dasalottaspace.

#68 Faron on 08.12.20 at 3:21 pm

Maybe you should critique the content…

Hold my beer…

#69 JB on 08.12.20 at 3:23 pm

#49 Joseph R. on 08.12.20 at 1:42 pm

#43 Don Guillermo on 08.12.20 at 1:04 pm
Blanchet says he will try to trigger a fall election if the 3 bandits don’t resign.

———————————————-

Call for a surprise election during a pandemic. That’s going to teach Trudeau.
……………………………………………………………………
Think he will come out of his cottage and cry?
Bad actor……………….

#70 Tom on 08.12.20 at 3:23 pm

Evan is losing major market share and revenue to private insurers. His latest plee for lenders to pull back on risk reeks of desperation.

If CMHC loses its marketplace clout, the foxes take over the henhouse. Siddall is correct to fight against greed, avarice and myopia. – Garth

——–

Which is why it was a myopic and naive move to change CMHC policies and expect private issuers to follow suit. Why not instead lobby for a policy that applies to all, rather than shoot yourself in the foot in the name of altruism all the while assuming that those who benefit from your grand gesture would follow you voluntarily. Evan should have known better. His intentions are noble, but his leadership needs a dose of reality.

#71 S.O on 08.12.20 at 3:28 pm

WE charity looks more like a shell company, especially when it has no assets, and too me it seems that Trudeau is using taxpayer money too set himself up and his family for the future.

#72 Oracle of Ottawa on 08.12.20 at 3:29 pm

You say lockdowns don’t work and we should had left people working. In which industry? Restaurants…the travel industry…oil and gas? The only thing doing well right now is online retailers. You cannot have full employment when employees are not needed.

#73 devore on 08.12.20 at 3:29 pm

#15 MF

I’d agree with Prem and Garth: far more people will die as a result of lockdowns and economic shutdown, than from covid directly ever would. Unfortunately, these deaths will never be attributed to covid, rather stress, other medical causes due to insufficient access to health care, suicides, etc. To mention nothing of the decreased standard of living due to reduced incomes, postponed retirements, broken relationships and marriages, destroyed education, science, development and career goals and aspirations. All for what, to have basically the same outcome as countries that just told their citizens to wear masks in public, wash their hands, and stay home if sick?

Anyways, I look forward to the spectacle that will unfold before year end, as our governments double down on the strategy and muddle the waters by counting all the upcoming flu deaths as covid related.

#74 Stone on 08.12.20 at 3:31 pm

#62 Stone on 08.12.20 at 2:52 pm
#15 MF on 08.12.20 at 11:35 am
Who is Prem?

Just some guy? Or qualified professional on the matter?

“Lockdown” was carried out in various forms all around the world and is not a singular event. Some countries had people unable to leave their house certain times of the day, some were more watered down.

Our “lockdown” was tame in comparison.

Culture is important too. Sweden (who fared worse than other Scandinavian countries that locked down btw) did better than Western Europe did. Why? Culture. People listened to the advice of the government. Would we do the same? Possibly. Who knows. Not Prem though.

Conclusion: too early to tell. Some post by an unknown is just that. An opinion piece (they can cite stats too). Would Canada have fared worse or better without a lockdown? Too early to tell.

MF

———

I agree with MF. Anyone can print something on Medium. Also, a CEO never writes their own articles. They have a communication manager for that and then it gets parsed through multiple levels to ensure it doesn’t cause problems for the company. Lastly, think about the company Prem is employed by. Are they negatively impacted by the shutdowns that occurred? Methinks yes. Very much so.

I do like how all these “experts” are backwards looking trying to blame someone for their own ills instead of looking forward and seeing the opportunities that come up when things change.

Prem, you’re a CEO. Can’t you pivot the company to take advantage of the new world order? Isn’t that what they pay you the big bucks for?

Maybe you should critique the content, not diss the writer. Otherwise we are tempted to utterly dismiss you. – Garth

———

Ok. Here goes. The article didn’t provide any firm concrete solutions other than fluffy generic stuff. Sorry. I see these type of watered down articles with fancy graphs all the time. They don’t hold people’s attention nor do they incite anyone taking action.

That’s why I like your blog. At least it provides concrete actionable steps to make your life better. I don’t always agree with all your points but, for the most part, it’s usable material and it influences (even if you sometimes like to be a bit inflammatory which is part of the fun). His article does none of the above.

#75 TurnerNation on 08.12.20 at 3:35 pm

#153 Flop… on 08.12.20 at 9:52 am

Good to know. Why are they keeping us behind normalcy here in NA? Maybe to roll out the banking system changes for the new system? See up top….

If anyone doubts children are the target in this New System, see what our elites are cooking up:

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/08/11/thinking-of-forming-a-learning-pod-heres-why-it-may-not-be-as-simple-as-you-think.html

#76 MF on 08.12.20 at 3:35 pm

Stone on 08.12.20 at 2:52 pm

Precisely. You always take into account the source, and any bias that may be present.

A similar situation occurred with Elon Musk recently. His car business was being impacted by the shutdown, and I’m assuming he was losing money. So, he started lashing out at governors and leaders who were implementing the policy on Twitter. Who cares if workers getting paid 15$/hour have to put their health at risk. What happened was his view was championed by anyone who already held that belief to begin with as gospel.

Is Elon Musk an incredible business entrepreneur who can teach us all about running a business? Absolutely.

Is Elon Musk someone who I trust to get a deeper insight into the health risks of going to work in a factory during a pandemic? No.

MF

#77 Dolce Vita on 08.12.20 at 3:39 pm

Housing’s dark underbelly

Read Sidalls letter too. He is sticking up for the mandate given to CMHC to insure home purchases.

He admits CMHC is LOSING MARKET SHARE, something you forgot to mention.

Sour grapes or wrapping oneself in the Canadian flag to protect Cdns. from themselves?

We’ll find out won’t we unless Trudeau legislates the “competition” out of existence.

The market need is there. CMHC is not meeting it. Either they change or let that segment of the market sort itself out.

There is enough mollycoddling going on in Canada (CERB, etc) it does not need anymore.

#78 DownToFinance on 08.12.20 at 3:40 pm

If CMHC loses its marketplace clout, the foxes take over the henhouse. Siddall is correct to fight against greed, avarice and myopia. – Garth

So who takes the fall if there’s a market crash and the foxes are at the helm? The homeowners? Sounds fair to me.

#79 bob on 08.12.20 at 3:43 pm

Why can’t it be you Garth?

And leave this high-paying blog? You jest. – Garth

#80 Comrade on 08.12.20 at 3:44 pm

#35 disappointed guy on 08.12.20 at 12:35 pm

I blame the clickbait fear selling media cycle for the over-reaction of the virus. It’s hard to have a measured response when everyone is panicking.

The clickbait business model of online news has to end and be heavily regulated. It encourages the spread of misinformation and fear which has proved to be extremely damaging
______________

I think you hit the nail on the head, I would add cancel culture to this and you have perfect storm scenario, majority people you talk they are scared, and yet chances of any us under 50 getting seriously sick are slim. But media takes huge responsibility for spreading, fear and panic.

Look at our politicians, they made announcement, social media goes crazy then they walk it back. i.e. BC schools opening on September, 8th. few tweets late, actually we are delaying start of school.

also, why media is covering Alyssa Milano with her covid symptoms every other day? (she tested 3 times negative, and one time positive for antibodies, and she concluded she has covid)

6 days ago:
https://people.com/tv/alyssa-milano-tests-positive-for-covid-19-antibodies-after-negative-coronavirus-results/

yesterday:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/11/entertainment/alyssa-milano-coronavirus-hair-loss-trnd/index.html

#81 fearologist on 08.12.20 at 3:51 pm

@#50 Inequity on 08.12.20 at 1:48 pm
#2 low rates 4ever

what is it about this blog that attracts the bandwidth trolls?
Always with new names, offering their opinion with no history or credibility… as if anyone would listen.

and who are you?

#82 MF on 08.12.20 at 4:05 pm

4 Stone on 08.12.20 at 3:31 pm

Agree again.

No solutions. No advice.

Just the luxery of 2020 hindsight to help guide an already present bias.

Bet you he was scared in March like the rest of us. Everyone had fear back then, even the e tough guys.

MF

#83 IHCTD9 on 08.12.20 at 4:08 pm

#78 DownToFinance on 08.12.20 at 3:40 pm
If CMHC loses its marketplace clout, the foxes take over the henhouse. Siddall is correct to fight against greed, avarice and myopia. – Garth

So who takes the fall if there’s a market crash and the foxes are at the helm? The homeowners? Sounds fair to me.
___

Anyone with money in a Canadian bank would pay with their savings if a mortgage market crash caused our banks to fail, and CMHC did not have the financial horsepower to stop it.

Home owner or not.

#84 Adam on 08.12.20 at 4:13 pm

Siddal’s full letter is worth a read. It is here:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cmhc-head-pleads-with-canadian-banks-to-avoid-risky-mortgages-1.1478723

#85 Stone on 08.12.20 at 4:13 pm

#76 MF on 08.12.20 at 3:35 pm
Stone on 08.12.20 at 2:52 pm

Precisely. You always take into account the source, and any bias that may be present.

A similar situation occurred with Elon Musk recently. His car business was being impacted by the shutdown, and I’m assuming he was losing money. So, he started lashing out at governors and leaders who were implementing the policy on Twitter. Who cares if workers getting paid 15$/hour have to put their health at risk. What happened was his view was championed by anyone who already held that belief to begin with as gospel.

Is Elon Musk an incredible business entrepreneur who can teach us all about running a business? Absolutely.

Is Elon Musk someone who I trust to get a deeper insight into the health risks of going to work in a factory during a pandemic? No.

MF

———

Agreed. Critical thinking is always underrated by those who don’t think critically. And those who have an agenda they don’t want you to figure out.

#86 45north on 08.12.20 at 4:14 pm

Randall Denley policing institutions in Canada do not have the leadership capacity to engage in the transformative change they may outwardly claim to embrace

https://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/denley-carleton-criminology-profs-want-to-end-student-internships-with-police-citing-colonialism-and-racial-bias/wcm/e03647a8-9242-4c2a-b1f0-5659aa9234e6/

This is about power. It’s kind of boring being a professor. You got a secure well paid job but you reach a dead end. To go beyond, you got to be a social justice warrior. On behalf of the down trodden you attack the police forces who deal with people. Bonus, is you get to be the beacon of hope, leading the oppressed masses from your position in the Ivory Tower.

The students suffer. On the one hand they’re told that they’re supposed to lead transformative change but on the other hand they’re expected to fit in with the practices of established police forces. Imagine the students’ frustration – they work hard in their university courses but then they don’t get hired.

#87 kappa on 08.12.20 at 4:14 pm

Reading Prem’s post, I would like to point a very common mistake in the data comparison. I’ve seen it in many places and is incredibly misleading. The flu+pneumonia historical numbers were gathered in normal times. The covid-19 numbers were captured in a NOT-normal world where we had: lock-downs, almost no air travel, no live events, no concerts, no sports with audience, no international travelling, almost no restaurant going, hospitality industry reduced by 90%.
So this covid-19 numbers vs flu numbers is not an apple to apple comparison.

What would the covid-19 numbers look like if no steps were taken ?

That being said, I believe there is a disproportionate amount of fear. Sometimes the fear is misplaced. Yes, we ought to protect the most vulnerable (older folks etc.). But we cannot sack the younger generation in the process. A balance needs to be found; many mistakes were made. Example: the lock-down in Ontario could have been shortened by 1-2 months if wearing a mask were made mandatory earlier (in indoor settings).
I have a sense that under 20’s cohort is disproportionately impacted by the measures taken. That’s where I agree with Prem’s points.

#88 45north on 08.12.20 at 4:15 pm

Siddall has warned that the dream of homeownership has the potential for turning nightmarish for those who buy when they actually can’t afford it. His views of the economic future are dark, brooding and cautionary. He thinks we’re a nation of debt junkies, that real estate has turned into a casino and lenders are rapacious. What’s not to love

he said that if prices decline by 18% then households who have bought with 5% down will be underwater – I think he was talking about the households who bought this year. You said there were 750,000 households who have deferred their mortgages. Then you said 800,000.

There could be a double nightmare – households who are underwater and households who have deferred their mortgages but cannot resume payments.

A woman just came to my door selling chocolate bars to support her family. I bought one. What’s this country going to look like a year from now?

#89 Faron on 08.12.20 at 4:15 pm

as a start and posted elsewhere:

I appreciate the conclusion that the focus needs to be on sustainable strategies. I also agree that there are several severe co-morbidities that attend social distancing and lock-down and these need to be addressed. As well, your statement that the lives vs. GDP comparison is the incorrect one to make is right-minded.

Unfortunately, the highlight statistics you use are grossly misleading — good for your rhetoric, but extremely poor for establishing an objective baseline to work from. For one, you cherry pick the worst ILI/Pneumonia years out of the last five (that in some cases see infection rates in the 20-30% realm while COVID hovers around 1/100th of that). Although you claim like time-for-time ILI/Pneum:COVID comparison, your worldwide statistic is for an annual total, not the ~5 months of COVID. You are also failing to recognize excess death statistics that indicate much higher mortality due to COVID especially in nations where infection was highest. Correcting these mistakes would have still allowed you to make your point, but failing to do so reduces your credibility.

Finally, in a bit of hypocrisy, you proclaim the need for social supports, but decry the increases in Gov’t debt. You do not get one without the other.

As Stone and MF have established, the mutterings of a CEO with his business in mind do not and should not be reflective of public health policy for all no matter how well that person attempts to dress their arguments in egalitarianism.

#90 Sail Away on 08.12.20 at 4:16 pm

#76 MF on 08.12.20 at 3:35 pm

A similar situation occurred with Elon Musk recently. His car business was being impacted by the shutdown, and I’m assuming he was losing money. So, he started lashing out at governors and leaders who were implementing the policy on Twitter.

—————

Yep. It’s reassuring to know there are powerful people willing and able to resist ridiculous government mandates.

#91 mark wolovetz on 08.12.20 at 4:17 pm

Gold….
You can not argue the fact that of Steady Eddy portfolio, called Permanent Portfolio and its returns. Although the historical returns are not remarkable, it post very few losing years and a ultra low SD. Beats the pants off a saving account and GIC with only slightly more risk (i think it lost money only money a couple times in last fifty years.
For people who want stable returns more than 5 times the return on a current GIC why not?

25% Gold.
25% Long bonds.
25% Short term bonds.
25% Stock market(canadian etf, world etf, USA Total stock market etf whatever combo you want for your stock portion.)

#92 TurnerNation on 08.12.20 at 4:22 pm

#65 yvr_lurker said ” However, 5 months ago the effect of masks was unclear to us here”.

It’s 2020 man not 1820
You are funny guy! Here I can save anyone from 10 years in Med School below. They are playing us so hard …this is the New Global System. The slave system. Currently the government controls your every breath (masks; singing banned) your every step: Stand on your mark 6-6-6 feet away in order to transact commerce.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus
“SARS coronavirus, for example, infects via an aerosol route”

#93 Barb on 08.12.20 at 4:23 pm

As always, a great post Mr. T.

Did Carney do a good job for the UK?

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.12.20 at 4:32 pm

I dont think it really matters who Prem is.
And I’m not Prem.

The message is clear.
The “cure” was worse than the Covid.
And it aint over yet.
If you think people were losing it during the first major lockdown…just wait.

Covid Part Deux with another 2 month lockdown….
hooooooo boy.
Get ready for suicides and assaults to skyrocket

#95 Lorne on 08.12.20 at 4:35 pm

#24 CERB out on 08.12.20 at 11:57 am
Just when we thought someone may put the big panties on and make a decision, BC has once again decided to delay schools returning.

Leadership has become laughable. No one dare make a decision as they risk being cancelled.
……
So delaying 2 days to ensure the restart is done correctly is actually “making a decision”….a good one at that!

#96 Decel on 08.12.20 at 4:38 pm

I like the newsbrief version of this post. It should be a regular occurence; the hump-day format.

Re: “I agree with your assessment. I have been analyzing the outcomes in lockdown countries vs. countries that did not implement a lockdown – Japan, Sweden, S. Korea, and Taiwan.”

Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan went balls-in on tracing however, using methods that would (and did) have some people cry murder over privacy concerns.

In a nation with anti-mask rallies (I am ashamed that we’re talking about Canada here…), I don’t think we’re mature enough for social responsibility. This is basically the paradox of tolerance at play.

#97 Dolce Vita on 08.12.20 at 4:38 pm

#5 the Jaguar

A lot of elderly died in Italia, no secret, same almost everywhere else. We just have more of them (#2 WHO ranked healthcare system in the World, Canada in the #30’s, you would have collapsed Canada if what happened in Italia happened to you).

Imperial College forgot to mention that in January, Lunar New Year in China, 7 million travelled internationally…

25% of them came to Italia (and not to the UK who then were still convinced of herd immunity like their buddies in Sweden, where the Chinese tourists also did not go to)

The FIRST 3 cases of COVID-19 in Italia were Chinese tourists, 2 made well again at the Italia CDC in Rome the the other in a large Naples hospital.

Fact. Not fiction. Well documented in the Italian MSM, under scrutiny even by those looking to manufacture racism where it does not exist (so they can preen cultural superiority, little else).

———————–

And again Garth about “How not to fight a bug”

(ABOUT SWEDEN):

Per the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine:

“In Sweden the attempt to achieve herd immunity failed. Here more cases and more deaths”

They go on to say that what Sweden did is an abject failure and that on LOCKDOWNS

“It is clear that not only the rates of contagion, hospitalizations and mortality are much higher than neighboring countries – write the authors -, but also the trend of the epidemic is different, with infections and mortality higher than in the most critical periods seen. in Denmark, Finland and Norway “.

AND A MEA CULPA FROM THE UK AUTHORS, Re: LOCKDOWN Again

“We in the UK would do well to remember we nearly trod the same path as Sweden, as herd immunity was often discussed here in early March. Right now, despite strict (but tardy) lock-down in the UK, and the more measured Swedish response, both countries have seen high seven-day averaged Covid-19 death rates compared to other Scandinavian and European countries.”

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076820945282

And if your On-demand transit software & solutions CEO feels strongly that he is correct well simple solution:

Submit his online treatise to the Royal Society of Medicine for scrutiny and publishing or another reputable Medical Journals for the same.

PS: Same goes for all the other theorists Commenting here today. Send a reputable Medical Journal your thoughts, numbers and careful research for publishing and scrutiny.
—————————

Oh yes, Swedish economic performance:

2nd Qtr GDP -8.6%
Their worst in over 40 years (but less than others, Pyrrhic victory)

They messed up bad (their Chief Medical Officer admitted that about herd immunity, at least he was honest).

There are other damning articles in Europe about Sweden, then again N. America how would you know you have N. American MSM as your purveyor of biased content (NBC, Fox, CNN et. al. or CDN MSM bought by Trudeau).

————————————————————–

A very good people the Swedes, cannot say the same about their Gov. If you don’t believe me, ASK THE SWEDES THEMSELVES:

“Just 45% of Swedes now have confidence in the government’s ability to handle the pandemic, according to a Novus survey last month, down from 63% in April.”

-24 July 2020, Did Sweden’s coronavirus strategy succeed or fail?

I mean you know, WHAT WOULD THE SWEDES KNOW when they have Canadians that know so much more about them than themselves.

#98 YouKnowWho on 08.12.20 at 4:45 pm

No sale Garth.

Siddall it asking junkies not to use, while handing banks life insurance on their lives.

Junkies will use. And banks will take the insured low risk profits.

Time for talk, time for asking, time for letters…is long behind us. It’s time for CMHC to act not talk. Stop buying all this debt. Stop insuring it with our tax dollars. Tighten the rules on what you insure.

Sick and tired of all the talk. Smoke and mirrors.

#99 Dirty Dan on 08.12.20 at 4:45 pm

Have you changed your stance on Trump, Garth?

If your teen heart throb can’t swing your opinion, you might be lost:

“Scott Baio at the Walk Away Rally in LA.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-i7ih4XClsY&t=1m

#100 SeeB on 08.12.20 at 4:46 pm

#70 Tom on 08.12.20 at 3:23 pm

Evan is losing major market share and revenue to private insurers. His latest plee for lenders to pull back on risk reeks of desperation.

If CMHC loses its marketplace clout, the foxes take over the henhouse. Siddall is correct to fight against greed, avarice and myopia. – Garth

——–

Which is why it was a myopic and naive move to change CMHC policies and expect private issuers to follow suit. Why not instead lobby for a policy that applies to all, rather than shoot yourself in the foot in the name of altruism all the while assuming that those who benefit from your grand gesture would follow you voluntarily. Evan should have known better. His intentions are noble, but his leadership needs a dose of reality.
—————————————-

Probably so he can come out of this mess 2 years from now and say “I told you so.”

Besides, he’s only the head of CHMC, he can’t dictate policy, only the government can, and they’ve been too spineless and beholden to lobbyists to do anything about it:

https://financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/cmhcs-evan-siddall-prepares-what-could-be-his-final-acts-as-the-most-important-person-in-canadian-housing

“The big housing lobbies lament Siddall’s treatment of them, but they haven’t exactly struggled to get politicians’ attention. In March, the Trudeau government apologized for the stress test by increasing the maximum that can be withdrawn from RRSPs for a first home to $35,000 from $25,000. It also created a new sop, the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive, which allows households with less than $120,000 in annual income to apply for a shared-equity loan from CMHC to help with an initial downpayment.”

#101 Joseph R. on 08.12.20 at 4:46 pm

#52 Don Guillermo on 08.12.20 at 1:54 pm
#49 Joseph R. on 08.12.20 at 1:42 pm
#43 Don Guillermo on 08.12.20 at 1:04 pm
Blanchet says he will try to trigger a fall election if the 3 bandits don’t resign.

———————————————-

Call for a surprise election during a pandemic. That’s going to teach Trudeau

**************************************
Nothing will ever teach Trudeau. It’s been blatantly obvious he’s unteachable. Do you have trouble voting with your mask on?

—————————————————————

I don’t have a problem with it. The rest of the electorate might have a different opinion though.

#102 Smartalox on 08.12.20 at 5:01 pm

Blanchet is no fool: it was one thing to be quiet during the SNC Lavalin scandal when a lot of Quebec construction industry jobs hung in the balance.

But the WE charity has very little footprint in Quebec and when it does register in the collective consciousness, the founders come off like a couple of tone-deaf Anglo ‘square heads’ getting a billion dollar government handout, with little, apparently, in it for Quebec.

To get a sense of how bad it looks, even the PR firm hired by the WE organization to manage (read translate) the program offerings for Quebec, was run out of TORONTO.

Add to that the Conservative party being caught flat-footed with a newly minted leader (likely without a seat in Parliament), and zero momentum in Quebec, he had to figure that his chances weren’t going to get any better.

He could clear the province – especially since the Liberal government’s only front-rank ‘Quebecois’ who is a household name, is Trudeau himself.

#103 sscc on 08.12.20 at 5:03 pm

Carney will royally screw up Canada’s resource-based economy! People will suffer from poverty from the green czar long before toasted by CO2.

#104 from Vancouver on 08.12.20 at 5:08 pm

#4 – Lefty:
….

I agree that Carney would be a much better Prime Minister than Trudeau\Monreau team [hey, anyone would be better for Canada than these dangerous clowns… but the only worry I have is that Carney is also “green” oriented zealot who lives in La-La-Land with respect to preaching for a green economy and making a living with solar panels in the Canadian Arctic…

But he has the maturity, intelligence and also the integrity, which the curent PM and Co& completely seem to lack.

One way or another, the sooner we get rid of Trudeau, the sooner we can put an end to the damage he is laying in his wake. Maybe it’s not too late to save Canada.

If not, then BC and Alberta should separate from Canada and maybe even join US? No point in sticking around if Quebec and Ontario keep voting country destroyers to power.

Either we get a country builder and unifier or maybe we should let Quebec live with the results of enabling the “Trudeaus“ and liberals.

#105 Jimmy Zhao on 08.12.20 at 5:10 pm

“We would hope you would reconsider highly leveraged household lending. Please put our country’s long-term outlook ahead of short-term profitability,”

Ha Ha, that is a good one. Why would the banks care?
Their loans are backstopped by the good taxpayers of Canada.

#106 Dolce Vita on 08.12.20 at 5:16 pm

Off Topic.

Mood of a Nation?

Read this Tweet by PM Trudeau with an image of himself and his wife, endearing, highly relatable and upbeat to me about youth and some of the things PM Trudeau cares about:

https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1293546017737060355

Read the Comments, vitriol an understatement.

Many from our youth, well nowadays you never know on Twitter but sobering their thoughts, eye opening in some cases.

Few, if any supportive Comments that I could find.

Is it COVID-19 weariness prompting Cdns. to lash out at their PM in such a manner or is something afoot in Canada about the popularity of its Liberal Government that pollsters seem unable to capture?

—————-

My personal favorite Comment was from a young woman into cars (and Star Trek I would surmise per her profile):

“RESIGN….CORRUPTED *Clingon”

*Klingon.

Klingons, take no offense at the comparison. On that note “HIjol”.

#107 Dave on 08.12.20 at 5:17 pm

Morneau is a disgrace and should resign.

#108 Dave on 08.12.20 at 5:21 pm

Those dogs look so happy to be out with their master or mistress. Some of them even look like they are smiling or laughing. The dog photos are so nice to look at because dogs don’t need anything but food, love and a roof over their heads. Humans on the other hand are obsessed with bigger and better. Fido, Spot and Reexxie all want to tell their human family that a big house is nice but then so is a tent.

#109 Dolce Vita on 08.12.20 at 5:26 pm

Off Topic Even More

Good to see Calgarians have taken to wearing masks:

https://twitter.com/LisaLongball/status/1293177543516753922

He drops the ball but not the puck.

#110 PBrasseur on 08.12.20 at 5:29 pm

Bill & Mark, a tax and spend liberal against a print and spend liberal. What a great choice!!!!

#111 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.12.20 at 5:32 pm

Re: Carney.

All good except the climate change warrior part.

#112 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.12.20 at 5:56 pm

Dear Prem,

Please explain how putting masks on the over 99.5% of healthy people stop “The Virus” from spreading when said people don’t have and therefore can’t transit “The Virus”?

#113 John on 08.12.20 at 5:56 pm

I hope Mark Carney will be fiscally conservative and ethical in his dealings. We can’t afford any more long-term damage to Canada.

#114 Don Guillermo on 08.12.20 at 6:04 pm

#79 bob on 08.12.20 at 3:43 pm
Why can’t it be you Garth?

And leave this high-paying blog? You jest. – Garth
****************************************
You’re totally not factoring in the perks – island vacas, posh summer cottage, making fun of other leaders at world events, dancing in costumes … it goes on and on.

#115 Alberta Ed on 08.12.20 at 6:10 pm

Carney is apparently a big fan of juvenile “climate warrior” Greta, which calls into question his credibility on other issues.

#116 Devil Anse on 08.12.20 at 6:15 pm

15 MF on 08.12.20 at 11:35 am
Who is Prem?
Just some guy? Or qualified professional on the matter?

—————————————-

Agreed. Prem is just some guy with a big ego who thinks because he owns a tech company in Waterloo he is an expert in epidemiology and public health. I deal with these types all the time.

As for Sweden, I’ve spent some time there and agree social trust is an important factor, but they are also natural social distancers. And it is the only culture I know of that is completely devoid of any sort of humour.

#117 Camille on 08.12.20 at 6:17 pm

Unfortunately Mark Carney is probably not a good choice. Canada can do better. I would again unfortunately prefer the current minister faced with such a choice.
Mark Carney warned on debt so often, but did nothing to raise rates. His predecessor also did nothing to raise rates when housing was raging 2007-2008, and then the crash. They caused house price inflation. People see this, they buy homes, some refuse to see the obvious. That’s where I learned the stock market is king.
As far as his climate change warnings, and the way he does it, he wants climate change bonds, its self-serving as can be, for himself and those who employ him.

#118 Dave on 08.12.20 at 6:23 pm

Quick Dick Mcdick has a very good way of explaining in terms an Ottawa Politician could understand about the WE scandal. It is very provocative and thought provoking.

https://youtu.be/h_bbGm4dOZw

#119 AGuyInVancouver on 08.12.20 at 6:24 pm

Prem says “Coronavirus death rates are approximately the same in countries that did not lockdown, relative to countries that locked down”.

That isn’t true. Sweden’s death rate per million is far higher than other Scandinavian countries and Germany’s. Those are the closest comparables.

#120 Long-Time Lurker on 08.12.20 at 6:26 pm

>Reality Check #1.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/symptoms-causes/syc-20479963

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

…Complications
Although most people with COVID-19 have mild to moderate symptoms, the disease can cause severe medical complications and lead to death in some people. Older adults or people with existing chronic medical conditions are at greater risk of becoming seriously ill with COVID-19.

Complications can include:

Pneumonia and trouble breathing
Organ failure in several organs
Heart problems
A severe lung condition that causes a low amount of oxygen to go through your bloodstream to your organs (acute respiratory distress syndrome)
Blood clots
Acute kidney injury
Additional viral and bacterial infections

#121 akashic record on 08.12.20 at 6:28 pm

Whatever happened to last week’s Bill vs Female MF, soon to be PM star?

Has she lost her Home Depot creds already at the old boy’s privy council?

#122 fishman on 08.12.20 at 6:28 pm

Carney was more than just objective over Brexit. He was politically, solidly, vociferously behind a no Brexit. Way over the line for a Governor of B of E. The Liberal platform of maintaining power & dispensing privilege will fit perfectly with his globalist agenda & elitist personality. He’ll look down from the heights of power. Haughtily, like Obama. Resigned,tired disdain for the unwashed lumpen deplorables, crazed Wexiteers & heaven forbid, Populists. And when the job gets too tiresome : switch to french.

#123 Long-Time Lurker on 08.12.20 at 6:28 pm

>Reality Check #2. The San Quentin Prison Herd Immunity Experiment:

The LA Times

San Quentin coronavirus disaster exposes a dangerous road to ‘herd immunity’
Rong-Gong Lin II, Kim Christensen

For critics of aggressive stay-at-home orders, the solution seems clear: Reopen the economy and enough people will eventually become infected by the novel coronavirus to achieve “herd immunity” even before a vaccine is available.

The idea is that eventually, a sufficient percentage of the population will have survived COVID-19 and become immune, which in turn protects the rest of the uninfected population by interrupting the spread of the virus.

But the disastrous situation unfolding at San Quentin State Prison over the last two months has become the latest of several cautionary tales that show how any effort to achieve herd immunity before a vaccine is available would come with enormous costs in terms of illness and death.

COVID-19 spread unchecked across California’s oldest prison in ways that stunned public health experts, despite efforts to control the disease. As of Monday, there had been more than 2,200 cases and 25 deaths, among a population of more than 3,260 people. On Sunday, a guard became one of the latest to die.

That means more than two-thirds of the prison’s population has been infected, said Dr. George Rutherford, epidemiologist and infectious diseases expert at UC San Francisco.

And though new cases have slowed, they are still occurring — with 60 reported in the last two weeks — suggesting herd immunity has not yet been achieved.

San Quentin’s death toll translates to a mortality rate of about 767 people dying out of every 100,000 persons.

If that same rate occurred across California, that would translate to a staggering 300,000 deaths statewide — many times larger than California’s cumulative death toll of more than 10,400. Nationally, that would be equivalent to 2.5 million deaths; the current cumulative U.S. death toll is more than 163,000….

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/san-quentin-coronavirus-disaster-exposes-a-dangerous-road-to-herd-immunity/ar-BB17PojC

#124 Long-Time Lurker on 08.12.20 at 6:29 pm

>Jair Bolsonaro update. Bolsonaro is smiling and briefly singing in this video dated August 11, 2020. He looks to be in good health.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HE7nohcVE_w

Bolsonaro sings campaign slogan alongside artist
1,957 views•Aug 11, 2020

#125 Long-Time Lurker on 08.12.20 at 6:30 pm

>Louie Gohmert update.

COVID-positive Tyler Rep. Louie Gohmert postpones fundraiser but says he’s feeling ‘remarkably well’
By Paul Cobler

4:16 PM on Aug 11, 2020 CDT

WASHINGTON — Rep. Louie Gohmert, a Tyler Republican who was often spotted in the U.S. Capitol without a mask before contracting COVID-19 last month, has postponed a campaign fundraiser scheduled for next week but says he’s recovering “remarkably well” from the virus…

…Gohmert tested positive for COVID-19 on July 29 during White House pre-screening before a planned trip to Midland on Air Force One with President Donald Trump for a fundraiser…

…Gohmert told One America News Monday night that he’s nearly asymptomatic after dealing with body aches and a cough the week before. Gohmert credited his minor symptoms and fast recovery to hydroxychloroquine…

…Gohmert’s improved health comes after he told Tyler television station KLTV last Thursday that he was recovering from the virus at his home in Tyler, which he drove to from Washington, D.C. after testing positive. The congressman said he was still experiencing “minor” lingering symptoms from the virus but was doing “surprisingly well.”

“It’s a legitimate virus, and it has caused death — although it’s normally somebody whose system has been compromised by some other illness or age and illness. But it is a legitimate virus,” he said….

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/08/11/covid-positive-tyler-rep-louie-gohmert-postpones-fundraiser-but-says-hes-feeling-remarkably-well/

#126 Drinking on 08.12.20 at 6:39 pm

Great blog yesterday and today Garth. I understand that people have different perspectives on how to run a country but I just do not understand how people can support our current government? It is below any standards; past governments in different countries were thrown out due to people rebelling against it; it has just been completely absurd; more so due to our lack of rebelling against it; mind you the Bloc is getting fed up; could a separist party save Canada; well besides Alta and Sask and East side of B.C.???

#127 Dee on 08.12.20 at 6:47 pm

Great article Garth! Finally some people are starting to see the light on lockdowns. Too bad many people in Canada still don’t get it ????? Even worse when the people leading us don’t.

#128 Winter peg on 08.12.20 at 6:48 pm

What is the minimum amount down required now to avoid CMHC insurance? (I think it was 25% when I bought in 1994).
Wouldn’t raising the amount of a down payment to avoid CMHC insurance cause people to pause and think before diving in?
Are the lenders downplaying the costs of CMHC premiums when they sell mortgages?

#129 Nonplused on 08.12.20 at 6:49 pm

Carney for PM? That’s a bold prediction, but I think it makes a lot of sense. Much more than Trudeau ever did. Plus so far as I know Carney isn’t being followed by a swarm of scandals.

Don’t know what he thinks he’s going to do about the climate though. The climate will do what the climate will do. Always has, always will. And if you think covid was hard on the economy wait until you see the green new deal.

Oh and it is good to see so many governments taking decisive action to ban plastic straws. Like that is going to make any difference. I throw out way more k-cups than I do straws. And paper straws suck. You have to drink your soda really quickly or they melt. And they take up just as much room in the landfill and they do not biodegrade once buried. Nothing does. I suppose you could compost them but that seems like a pain to me.

Anyway I think I’ll make me a gin and tonic to help fight off covid. Wait, doesn’t the Sodastream run on carbon dioxide? That toxic poisonous globe destroyer? Funny how the utility of destroying the planet all depends on your perspective. “Cars bad. Sodastream good. Plastic straws bad. K-cups good. 5G bad. iPhone good.”

#130 Leftover on 08.12.20 at 6:52 pm

#39 Do We Have all the Facts

It was not the pooled mortgage debt that caused the GFC, it was the derivatives underpinning those securities, specifically the credit default swaps, that lit the dumpster on fire.

Lehman and AIG were the underwriters/long investors in those instruments. Once the RE market turned down it got whip-sawed.

#131 John on 08.12.20 at 6:53 pm

Would a photo of pigs at the trough too rude and risky?

#132 espressobob on 08.12.20 at 6:53 pm

As a retail investor over the years I can tell anyone playing commodities, are wasting their time.

Owning the miners/producers will prove way more profitable than the underlying asset.

Hell, owning the major indices that already have weightings across the board is the easiest bet going. And this course of action is investible over time instead of trying to pick entry and exit points.

Some get it while others?…

#133 Ronaldo on 08.12.20 at 6:57 pm

Get ready for the roundup.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRTw77Ioy-Y&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR1ps4QYgHf2iFd9-uIcZf56xx6VFcZnhybny4L8x6E1blSRKcjP7Zifv5A

The clip is 10 years old, taken out of context and you should be ashamed of yourself. – Garth

#134 Sail Away on 08.12.20 at 6:59 pm

Sweden can’t wait for the pandemic to pass so they can stop 2m distancing and resume normal 5m distancing.

#135 Faron on 08.12.20 at 6:59 pm

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.12.20 at 4:32 pm

…another 2 month lockdown…

I’d be surprised if it happens. NYT’s Donald McNeil, who nailed it back in late Feb and again discussing the so-called “Hammer and the Dance”. No more lock downs, but lots of whack-a-mole.

NZ is re-locking as we write, however. The change of the seasons will tell the story. This fall could be interesting…

Oh yeah, Prem, what about NZ? Locked down hard, came away mostly unscathed. Denmark? Norway? Same deal. How about Brazil? No lockdowns and fell hard on their face and continue to plow their virus ridden visages into the red Amazonian earth. That must be getting uncomfortable. Oh, you didn’t include them in your analysis? The polydimensionality of factors that lead to COVID outcome made it too complex for your narrative? Got it. Thanks for your insight.

#136 willworkforpickles on 08.12.20 at 7:03 pm

#165 willworkforpickles from yesterdays thread (today)
#163 Montana Bob
I’m leaning more towards the top end of the scale property owners than the actual CMHC stats i use just for reference.
Those with money to burn laying in wait to pick up discounts in the coming correction are focused mainly on million dollar homes with deferred mortgages headed for the cliff and distress as none are insured.
………………………………….,,,,,,,,,,,………………………………

I posted today 2 of my comments from yesterday’s thread numbers 57 & 58… they were actually numbers 157 & 158

….and in regard to the above response to Montana Bob from yesterday’s string, I could add…with most of the of greater fools out of the picture in the coming downturn as the like will have their little feeding frenzy more toward the bottom end of the property scale when lending regs tighten (as they do in downturns)…the cream of the crop top end properties that will come online in distress mode will see a little buying frenzy there.
By then likely clear of the remaining bidding war greater fools who won’t particularly qualify to buy at that point, top end of the scale property.
Likewise, The rich could be left alone to pick up bargains with cash money deals unfettered by the ultra annoying lower end greater fool class of insane bid-up buyers.
Personally…this is all i wait for anymore. All i come here for anymore but to gauge the progress toward this now as it is once in a lifetime soon to be open window opportunity that will soon close thereafter. The non greater fools with cash to buy top end real estate at a decent lower price without bidding wars will have their day in the sun.

#137 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.12.20 at 7:04 pm

#120 Long-Time Lurker on 08.12.20 at 6:26 pm fearmongers:
“>Reality Check #1.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/symptoms-causes/syc-20479963

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

…Complications
Although most people with COVID-19 have mild to moderate symptoms, the disease can cause severe medical complications and lead to death in some people. Older adults or people with existing chronic medical conditions are at greater risk of becoming seriously ill with COVID-19.

Complications can include:

Pneumonia and trouble breathing
Organ failure in several organs
Heart problems
A severe lung condition that causes a low amount of oxygen to go through your bloodstream to your organs (acute respiratory distress syndrome)
Blood clots
Acute kidney injury
Additional viral and bacterial infections”
—————————————————————-
Please provide the frequency of incidence stats for these symptoms, including demographic breakdowns and existence of exacerbating preconditions.

Is it 1 in 10?

1 in 100?

1 in 10,000?

1 in a million?

Do tell!

#138 conan on 08.12.20 at 7:15 pm

If I read your prediction right Garth, the Cons are not getting back in power for a while, and for some people, the definition for a while, is decades. Toast long term,
Sayonara.

#139 Nonplused on 08.12.20 at 7:21 pm

#12 Dirty Dan on 08.12.20 at 11:29 am

“Hopefully they tax the sale of primary residences to pay for all of this. :)”

Primary residences are already taxed. It is called property tax. In addition, primary residences are paid for with after tax income, so taxed again like everything else. New houses are also subject to HST. In addition some cities already have horrendous land transfer taxes. Oh I know, you are proposing a capital gains tax on houses. Except that houses are not a capital item (unless used to rent). When you sell one house and buy another typically you realize no gain until you are all done with houses and moving to the retirement home.

Houses are taxed to death already. In addition to the obvious property taxes and HST (on new houses), land transfer fees, and such, there is utilities (you pay HST and the utility pays all kinds of taxes which they embed in the price you pay), maintenance (you pay HST on that new roof or furnace and all the workers pay tax which gets embedded in your bill), insurance (tax embedded there too) and all the income tax you pay trying to raise money to pay the mortgage.

I don’t think, all things considered, anyone ever made any money owning their primary residence. At least not once adjusted for inflation. Bubble markets excepted but those gains won’t last forever.

I mean what’s next? A tax on ’67 Mustangs? Try buying one of those for the $3,800 it cost new. But I don’t know if people really make a lot of money on those either because 53 years worth of insurance and maintenance adds up and it has probably been through at least 1-2 very expensive restorations.

#140 Faron on 08.12.20 at 7:30 pm

#134 Sail Away on 08.12.20 at 6:59 pm

Sweden can’t wait for the pandemic to pass so they can stop 2m distancing and resume normal 5m distancing.

Ha!

#141 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.12.20 at 7:32 pm

The UK just reported a 20.4% drop in GDP, much worse than European countries which locked down much earlier.

#142 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.12.20 at 7:33 pm

Parody video!

Funny! And so true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONfvD8hbofo&app=desktop

Here’s the mask video I’m more concerned about. – Garth

#143 Don Guillermo on 08.12.20 at 7:34 pm

#129 Nonplused on 08.12.20 at 6:49 pm
Carney for PM? That’s a bold prediction, but I think it makes a lot of sense. Much more than Trudeau ever did. Plus so far as I know Carney isn’t being followed by a swarm of scandals.

Don’t know what he thinks he’s going to do about the climate though. The climate will do what the climate will do. Always has, always will. And if you think covid was hard on the economy wait until you see the green new deal.

Oh and it is good to see so many governments taking decisive action to ban plastic straws. Like that is going to make any difference. I throw out way more k-cups than I do straws. And paper straws suck. You have to drink your soda really quickly or they melt. And they take up just as much room in the landfill and they do not biodegrade once buried. Nothing does. I suppose you could compost them but that seems like a pain to me.

Anyway I think I’ll make me a gin and tonic to help fight off covid. Wait, doesn’t the Sodastream run on carbon dioxide? That toxic poisonous globe destroyer? Funny how the utility of destroying the planet all depends on your perspective. “Cars bad. Sodastream good. Plastic straws bad. K-cups good. 5G bad. iPhone good.

*******************************************
I saw a video clip from the people that found the one turtle with a straw up it’s nose (we’ve all seen it, terrible deal for that turtle no doubt ). After they uploaded it to YouTube the world immediately lost it. It’s quite funny watching the tourists in Mexico using these paper straws wilting away in the heat. They’re convinced they’re saving the planet.

#144 will on 08.12.20 at 7:36 pm

Yes. A big Yes to today’s post, and to the link.

#145 Nonplused on 08.12.20 at 7:37 pm

#67 Ronaldo on 08.12.20 at 3:17 pm

“1250 s.f. each?? Dasalottaspace.”

My garage is bigger than that and it is full.

#146 Bk on 08.12.20 at 7:51 pm

Great post Garth!

#147 Sail Away on 08.12.20 at 7:52 pm

#120 Long-Time Lurker on 08.12.20 at 6:26 pm fearmongers:

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

…Complications

Although most people with COVID-19 have mild to moderate symptoms, the disease can cause severe medical complications and lead to death

Complications can include:

Pneumonia and trouble breathing
Organ failure in several organs
Heart problems
A severe lung condition that causes a low amount of oxygen to go through your bloodstream to your organs (acute respiratory distress syndrome)
Blood clots
Acute kidney injury
Additional viral and bacterial infections”

—————–

It’s good you brought this up LTL. Covid, though, is not the only danger we face. Have you considered:

Experiences?

…Complications

Although most people are exposed to experiences at various times in their life, some can instill troublesome perspective and lead to independent thought.

To avoid such distressing situations, it is prudent to remain indoors at all times, avoid contact with other people, variable temperatures, controversial ideas, any food that could possibly cause an allergic reaction (steamed white rice is highly recommended), physical and/or mental stress, animals and children.

Complications can include:

Independence
Skepticism
Sunburn/windburn/callouses
Autonomy
Satisfaction

I think we can agree those aberrations do not fit into polite society!

#148 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.12.20 at 7:52 pm

#140 Faron on 08.12.20 at 7:30 pm
#134 Sail Away on 08.12.20 at 6:59 pm

Sweden can’t wait for the pandemic to pass so they can stop 2m distancing and resume normal 5m distancing.

Ha!
————–
Faron, you’re excused. You were on holiday.
Sailo is plagiarizing again.

#149 Frank Stammel on 08.12.20 at 7:53 pm

Nonplused, i agree completely. What should and never gets discussed is the over paid government pensions most public sector especially federal workers get are not taxed. What i mean is because they are in a pension plan they get special tax deferral on all those years plus we the taxpayers are paying 50% or more of their pensions.

Tax the pension value every year and get rid of their special pension contributions from taxpayers. No government worker should have a pension anyway. They can start an RRSP, TFSA and other non-registered accounts like the rest of us that have to live in the real world.

This is what happens when you get a bunch of entitled crybabies in a country like Canada that think they deserve everything they want. They attach to the host and suck it dry.

#150 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.12.20 at 7:56 pm

Garth,

Is there a TLDW version of that video? Ain’t watching 12 minutes unless it’s got a catchy tune.

#151 Drake 2.0 on 08.12.20 at 7:57 pm

CERB will morph into UBI.

#152 Nonplused on 08.12.20 at 7:59 pm

#143 Don Guillermo on 08.12.20 at 7:34 pm

“I saw a video clip from the people that found the one turtle with a straw up it’s nose (we’ve all seen it, terrible deal for that turtle no doubt ). After they uploaded it to YouTube the world immediately lost it. It’s quite funny watching the tourists in Mexico using these paper straws wilting away in the heat. They’re convinced they’re saving the planet.”

————————–

The problem with the turtle is not the straw so much as that people can’t be trusted to land their garbage in the trash. Or New York, where they load the trash up on barges and dump it in the ocean. My straws all end up buried in the landfill, where they harm no turtles. Even when hiking I pack my trash out. I pee all over the place though…. But so do the deer so sue me.

I’ve been to Mexico and there was this island that was now closed because the tourists had left a foot of garbage over all the beach. It’s the old problem of people who throw cigarette butts out the window and start forest fires. The cigarette but isn’t particularly the problem, it will degrade, but starting forest fires because you are reckless is a problem. Why does the government even have to announce fire bans? Well, because people are idiots.

#153 Flop... on 08.12.20 at 8:03 pm

Carnage?

Oh sorry, you said Carney…

M46BC

“Visualizing Coronavirus Economic Impact on Major Corporates

COVID-19 continues to inflict massive damage on the global economy, but how are some of the most recognizable companies doing? We crunched the numbers for a handful of well known corporations from around the world to visualize just how bad the carnage has been in some corners of the corporate world for the first half of 2020.

* Two of the companies with the worst balance sheets in our visualization are the oil companies BP (-$21.2B) and Shell (-$18.1B).

* Our visualization illustrates the pain being felt by travel companies around the world, including airlines like Delta (-$6.3B), car manufacturers like Volkswagen (-$1.8B) and banks like Wells Fargo (-$1.7B).

* COVID-19 is also punishing companies that were already experiencing trouble, like Boeing, which has lost $3B in the first half of 2020 alone.”

1. BP -$21.2B
2. Shell -$18.1B
3. Santander -$12.7B
4. Renault -$8.6B
5.Delta -$6.3B
6. Chevron -$4.7B
7. American Airlines -$4.3B
8. DuPont -$3.1B
9. Air France-KLM -$3.1B
10. Boeing -$3.1B

#154 crossbordershopper on 08.12.20 at 8:09 pm

well, if someone would lend me couple million to buy a business that generates good income with only 5% down i would do it, so i dont criticize a couple of young kids just married with there 20K down and the rest when you catch me. why not,
yes as a society we all collective back stop it all but as a young person you take risks , we have to give young people a chance to blow there finances its just the way its suppost to be. We cant have 70 year old people still working is wrong too, they should be looked after long time ago, but circumstances.

#155 Sail Away on 08.12.20 at 8:09 pm

#148 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.12.20 at 7:52 pm
#140 Faron on 08.12.20 at 7:30 pm
#134 Sail Away on 08.12.20 at 6:59 pm

Sweden can’t wait for the pandemic to pass so they can stop 2m distancing and resume normal 5m distancing.

—————

Ha!

—————

Faron, you’re excused. You were on holiday.
Sailo is plagiarizing again.

—————

Nope, I’m The Creator.

It has gone sort of viral, though, like a lot of My material.

#156 the Jaguar on 08.12.20 at 8:14 pm

@ #97 Dolce Vita on 08.12.20 at 4:38 pm
#5 the Jaguar

Agree with what you posted. The paragraph from Heather MacDonald’s piece was simply about outcomes based on age/underlying conditions, not how the virus got to Italy. Given the many attractions the country has to offer it is no wonder international tourist traffic was a contributing factor to the terrible situation that played out in front of the world in the early months of Covid, and Italian courage in the face of desperation and death was a real inspiration to many.
What was the most astonishing to me was the lack of support from the European Union countries, with Russia sending vehicles, etc. to help in that time of crisis.
In times of crisis we find out who our real friends are, and I guess it’s the same with nations. Canada stepped up to help land and park planes and feed the people on them in September 2001. We can always feel proud of that.

#157 Sheesh on 08.12.20 at 8:14 pm

#57 Piano_Man87 on 08.12.20 at 2:14 pm
Maybe lockdowns don’t work.

Masks also don’t work if you can’t get people to wear them. We still can’t. Go into a store in rural Saskatchewan and people will openly mock you for wearing one.

Part of public health is that it is more than just science. You need the public to buy in to the measures or they are pointless.

I wouldn’t expect a guy trying to sell a transit app to get that.

Want to know why Taiwan had almost no cases? Universal mask wearing almost immediately. If you had the virus and were quarantining at home, the government tracked your location via your smartphone. If your phone even merely lost power, cops would be knocking at your door in an hour.

I think the data actually shows that it is not lockdown vs no lockdown that predicted outcomes, it is social cooperation vs no social cooperation in conjunction with a well educated and informed public.
….

I thought this comment was worth repeating, because it pretty much hits the nail on the head.

Hindsight is 20/20. Does the lockdown seem to be an overreaction? Maybe that’s because it was effective.

All you cavalier under 50s should be aware that death isn’t the only bad outcome from this virus, there is plenty of disability associated with it as well. Since there is much we don’t understand about how this virus affects the various organs and blood, a little caution seems smart.

Since our society (or at least this comment section) is so individualistic and full of people who believe they’re smarter than the experts, lockdown was pretty much the best option at the time.

#158 mark on 08.12.20 at 8:15 pm

What I love most about the gold thing is the absence of any sense of asset allocation in the process. I’ve heard the biggest promoter of all, Peter Schiff, say 10% of your portfolio in precious metals. That’s it, yet there’s people with most of their portfolio tied up in. Religion.

#159 Entrepreneur on 08.12.20 at 8:18 pm

Warning people of too much debt then giving them low-interest rates too long, how would most people react to this: people have to have a house to live in, multi investors took advantage, and so on and now a big tangle mess.

And along that a climate change mess.

A mother and her two children came home to their rented home to find the doors and windows removed. The landlord removed them because she was behind two months rent. The Rental Agreement? fixed it so she and her two kids can return.

Two months rents, really, to do that to a family. This is allowing investors to borrow money from the banks then expect renters to pay their mortgage, bad business practice. And ruining our communities. Plus those kids will a “off” attitude.

We need more people like Evan Siddal to speak up, the truth.

#160 Lorne on 08.12.20 at 8:19 pm

#139 Nonplused on 08.12.20 at 7:21 pm
#12 Dirty Dan on 08.12.20 at 11:29 am

“Hopefully they tax the sale of primary residences to pay for all of this. :)”

Primary residences are already taxed. It is called property tax. In addition, primary residences are paid for with after tax income, so taxed again like everything else. New houses are also subject to HST. In addition some cities already have horrendous land transfer taxes. Oh I know, you are proposing a capital gains tax on houses. Except that houses are not a capital item (unless used to rent). When you sell one house and buy another typically you realize no gain until you are all done with houses and moving to the retirement home.

Houses are taxed to death already. In addition to the obvious property taxes and HST (on new houses), land transfer fees, and such, there is utilities (you pay HST and the utility pays all kinds of taxes which they embed in the price you pay), maintenance (you pay HST on that new roof or furnace and all the workers pay tax which gets embedded in your bill), insurance (tax embedded there too) and all the income tax you pay trying to raise money to pay the mortgage.

I don’t think, all things considered, anyone ever made any money owning their primary residence. At least not once adjusted for inflation. Bubble markets excepted but those gains won’t last forever.

…………
Problem is, of course, there are many “primary residences” being sold….that are not “primary residences” and no tax being paid. We taxpayers would be far better off if the rules were actually being followed!

#161 Sheesh on 08.12.20 at 8:20 pm

#137 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.12.20 at 7:04 pm
#120 Long-Time Lurker on 08.12.20 at 6:26 pm fearmongers:

—————————————————————-
Please provide the frequency of incidence stats for these symptoms, including demographic breakdowns and existence of exacerbating preconditions.

Is it 1 in 10?

1 in 100?

1 in 10,000?

1 in a million?

Do tell!
….

We don’t know yet, that’s the point. New virus and all.

#162 Sail Away on 08.12.20 at 8:22 pm

#145 Nonplused on 08.12.20 at 7:37 pm
#67 Ronaldo on 08.12.20 at 3:17 pm

“1250 s.f. each?? Dasalottaspace.”

My garage is bigger than that and it is full.

————-

AirBNB fourplex? Smart man!

#163 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.12.20 at 8:25 pm

Long read but worth it:

https://www.aier.org/article/dont-live-your-life-in-a-bubble/

#164 Sail Away on 08.12.20 at 8:28 pm

#152 Nonplused on 08.12.20 at 7:59 pm

The problem with the turtle is not the straw so much as that people can’t be trusted to land their garbage in the trash.

Or New York, where they load the trash up on barges and dump it in the ocean.

————–

Pretty sure that stopped 20 years ago. Link?

#165 akashic record on 08.12.20 at 8:32 pm

Here’s the mask video I’m more concerned about. – Garth

This will take your concern away, like a breath of fresh air.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/peak-idiocy-wisconsin-government-agency-mandates-facemask-use-virtual-zoom-meetings

#166 MF on 08.12.20 at 8:38 pm

Sail Away on 08.12.20 at 4:16

No one is above the law. Not even a billionaire. What are you suggesting?

Do we live in some banana republic now or something?

Btw, after his little tirade against the government, he ended up having an argument with his wife on Twitter for the world to see. Pretty lame.

MF

#167 Ballingsford on 08.12.20 at 8:41 pm

Love the deaths by Covid graph. That says a lot. We have turned into a nation of paranoids.

And us who aren’t have to deal with them daily!

Seems.like everyone is walking around and scared they might get Ebola!

#168 Sydneysider on 08.12.20 at 8:42 pm

Even doctors can’t agree about the prophylactic efficacy (or otherwise) of masks away from clinical settings continues.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2005 and refs. therein

Here in BC we have a long running experiment in which old people are put into special homes away from their families, and are taken care of by people who wear masks all the time. So far it has not worked out well.

#169 MF on 08.12.20 at 8:42 pm

Re: Mark Carney and central banks.

Paul Volcker was “calm and cool”. Did the “mean”, ballsy, unpopular, thing and jacked up rates to save the dollar. There was pain but it was necessary.

Dropping rates is the easy, wimpy, safe, worry about it later move.

MF

#170 Ronaldo on 08.12.20 at 8:43 pm

#145 Nonplused on 08.12.20 at 7:37 pm
#67 Ronaldo on 08.12.20 at 3:17 pm

“1250 s.f. each?? Dasalottaspace.”

My garage is bigger than that and it is full.
—————————————————————-
I knew a hoarder with the same problem. lol

#171 DON on 08.12.20 at 8:44 pm

@ Nonplused

Peeing in nature…how uncivilized of you.

i am convinced that males buy houses so they can pee in the backyard. My dogs have so so much freedom I am truly jealous.

The part about the Mexican Island and tourists is not right and should be monitored. I was hiking the beaches/trails on the pristine North end of Vancouver Island and came accross tons of plastic water bottles with both local and foreign printing. The rangers are overwhelmed and they simply store the garbage in the bush. In some places a 50 ft section of the beach will net you 100 plastic bottles.

#172 Drinking on 08.12.20 at 8:52 pm

There are only two people that I really trust to tell the truth one is Garth and the other is Rex; whether the two agree or disagree is between the two of them, not so much business but ideologies; I do like this recent article by Rex and of course posts by Garth; although we butt heads once in awhile. Good to keep all ideas/ideals flowing!

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-the-bus-approaches-bill-morneau/wcm/659c0954-3999-4b8d-ba5c-e242e9257769/

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-the-bus-approaches-bill-morneau/wcm/659c0954-3999-4b8d-ba5c-e242e9257769/

#173 MF on 08.12.20 at 8:54 pm

142 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.12.20

“ Here’s the mask video I’m more concerned about. – Garth”

4:45 in that video. Old out of shape guy looks to get physical and start a fight over a joke video.

Lol I can’t stand wearing a mask (I do it anyways), but I definitely don’t want anything to with whatever group “sides” that type of unstable clown.

MF

#174 zee on 08.12.20 at 8:54 pm

Evan is the man, he knows exactly whats going on in the housing market.

This is what i have been saying all along, how can people pass the stress test today when they could not a few months ago at lower prices.

#175 Ballingsford on 08.12.20 at 8:55 pm

The old 25% rule to follow is probably forgotten by a lot of the new generations.

Take 100% of your net income(s) and 25 % goes for housing, 25 % for utilities, credit cards, loans, etc., 25% for groceries, and 25 % for savings.

#176 KNOW IT ALL on 08.12.20 at 8:55 pm

The more I read Garth’s words the richer I get.

#177 Jenna on 08.12.20 at 8:58 pm

Hello Garth,

My question this evening is unrelated to the current article.

In Ontario is there any way to get sales data for houses or farm property. Basically what did the properties sell for in the past…up to and including four years ago.

Thanks for all and any help on this matter.

#178 Figmund Sreud on 08.12.20 at 9:09 pm

Second, Mark Carney…
_________

You mean this Carney, … the man who recently led a frantic campaign for a green digital crypto-currency to replace the bankrupt US dollar?

Carney urges Libra-like reserve currency to end U.S. dollar dominance

Mark Carney laid out a radical proposal for an overhaul of the global financial system that would eventually replace the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency with a Libra-like virtual one. …

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/carney-urges-libra-like-reserve-currency-to-end-dollar-dominance-1.1306107

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#179 CalgaryCarGuy on 08.12.20 at 9:17 pm

Re #55 by Ace Goodheart
Problem you have in Canada is on one side of things, you have Trudeau and Morneau, two trust fund babies with limited real life experience, and on the other, you have a leaderless zombie party with no policy or platform, that everyone equates to “dirty oil interests” from Alberta.

In between the two you have a left wing socialist playing king maker, and a separatist party that supports no one and has it’s own private, province specific agenda.

It’s a recipe for disaster and it’s playing out right now like a never ending, slow motion train wreck.
—————————————————————-
I believe the next federal election is going to be a surprise for a lot of people. The days of the majority of western Canada voting Conservative are gone. The Conservatives can no longer count on those votes. The number of people in Alberta and Saskatchewan who will vote for the WEXIT party is going to be a shock for many. A great number of people in western Canada have finally woken up to the fact that it really doesn’t matter whether the Liberals or the Cons are in power. Both will pander to the larger voter base in the east like they have always done. Albertans are done with playing that game….just watch.

#180 Stone on 08.12.20 at 9:45 pm

Here’s the mask video I’m more concerned about. – Garth

———

Wow! I so thought that Americans had learned something after Rick Mercer’s Talking to Americans a few years back and how stupid they made themselves out to be. I guess not.

Dumb doesn’t even describe it.

I know there are intelligent Americans out there too. Where are they though? Canada?

#181 Dr V on 08.12.20 at 9:48 pm

Nonplused – “And paper straws suck”.

That is what all straws are supposed to do. You can blow in them too, but it looks kinda childish.

#182 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.12.20 at 10:02 pm

@IHCTD9

Live anywhere near the Red Lake fire?
Forests are drier than a popcorn fart…

#183 Ballingsford on 08.12.20 at 10:06 pm

#180 Dr V on 08.12.20 at 9:48 pm
Nonplused – “And paper straws suck”.

That is what all straws are supposed to do. You can blow in them too, but it looks kinda childish
——
Yah, paper straws suck, that’s why I stopped going to A&W.
Feels and tastes like fingernails on a chalkboard.

The garbage here lands in a landfill, not the.ocean, so overkill to save the turtles and other marine life.

#184 Drinking on 08.12.20 at 10:37 pm

#153 Flop…

To be completely expected; if you have time I would be interested to see the losses in the hotel/motel industries.

Mind you; I believe that it was you that posted on how well insurance companies were doing last week; if not you, then my appologies!

#185 TurnerNation on 08.12.20 at 10:50 pm

200th? Where’s ‘Follow the Money Greedo’???
What some are suggesting – yep another scam CV19.
Bankers and elites.

From a Twitter user, S.W. Ontario:

“The Deputy Mayor of my area told me when the first district declared emergency that it was not due to an actual emergency, it was to be first in line for the payouts when it came time for the funding”

Which leads to:

“City of Ottawa will receive $49,348,500 in the first round of municipal funding under the Safe Restart Agreement. For more read: https://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2020/08/ontario-providing-municipalities-with-up-to-16-billion-in-first-round-of-emergency-funding.html

“And the City of Ottawa will receive $ 74,980,842 for transit services under the Safe Restart Agreement. Read more here:”

#186 Phylis on 08.12.20 at 10:58 pm

Phew, so many concerns today. Freeze CMHC and watch the others squirm. Add popcorn and now you’ve gotta show.

#187 SOMETHINGS UP! on 08.12.20 at 11:04 pm

TO ALL YOU CERB COLLECTORS…..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WCFUGCOLLU

#188 Sail Away on 08.12.20 at 11:41 pm

#166 MF on 08.12.20 at 8:38 pm
Sail Away on 08.12.20 at 4:16

No one is above the law. Not even a billionaire. What are you suggesting?

Do we live in some banana republic now or something?

—————–

Sorry, MF, can’t talk right now. I’m on my way to blockade a railroad and the Trans Canada highway.

Maybe we can discuss this written in stone rule of law thing later?

#189 SoggyShorts on 08.13.20 at 12:04 am

#112 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.12.20 at 5:56 pm
Dear Prem,

Please explain how putting masks on the over 99.5% of healthy people stop “The Virus” from spreading when said people don’t have and therefore can’t transit “The Virus”?

***************************
Unless we are able to instantly test 100% of the population at the same time with instant accurate results, how do we know who does and doesn’t have it?

Remember, you can feel perfectly healthy and still be both infected and contagious.

#190 Don Guillermo on 08.13.20 at 12:36 am

#152 Nonplused on 08.12.20 at 7:59 pm
#143 Don Guillermo on 08.12.20 at 7:34 pm

“I saw a video clip from the people that found the one turtle with a straw up it’s nose (we’ve all seen it, terrible deal for that turtle no doubt ). After they uploaded it to YouTube the world immediately lost it. It’s quite funny watching the tourists in Mexico using these paper straws wilting away in the heat. They’re convinced they’re saving the planet.”

————————–

The problem with the turtle is not the straw so much as that people can’t be trusted to land their garbage in the trash. Or New York, where they load the trash up on barges and dump it in the ocean. My straws all end up buried in the landfill, where they harm no turtles. Even when hiking I pack my trash out. I pee all over the place though…. But so do the deer so sue me.

I’ve been to Mexico and there was this island that was now closed because the tourists had left a foot of garbage over all the beach. It’s the old problem of people who throw cigarette butts out the window and start forest fires. The cigarette but isn’t particularly the problem, it will degrade, but starting forest fires because you are reckless is a problem. Why does the government even have to announce fire bans? Well, because people are idiots.
***************************************

I absolutely agree with you. Mexicans are behind the curve and slowly learning. Problems is the straws are a distraction. I love the planet and my whole life I’ve been a natural resource worker (oil & gas, mining smelting, power generation ) of the best kind. For years I’ve walk up and down my hometown Mexican street picking up trash and dog shit. I’ve seen Mexican neighbors looking out the windows at me like I’m a crazy old gringo. But recent years I’ve seen their children picking up trash. Maybe leading by example works. We can only hope.

#191 Midnights on 08.13.20 at 12:54 am

A Plea from a Member of the Italian Parliament – International Call to Action
I love Armstrong.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/a-plea-from-member-of-italian-parliament-international-call-to-action/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=RSS

The Great Plandemic.

#192 Don Guillermo on 08.13.20 at 1:01 am

#180 Stone on 08.12.20 at 9:45 pm
Here’s the mask video I’m more concerned about. – Garth

———

Wow! I so thought that Americans had learned something after Rick Mercer’s Talking to Americans a few years back and how stupid they made themselves out to be. I guess not.

Dumb doesn’t even describe it.

I know there are intelligent Americans out there too. Where are they though? Canada?
**********************************

Using a contrived TV show to make you feel intelligent and superior doesn’t say much. Canadians like you are too common and a huge embarrassment.

#193 Sue on 08.13.20 at 1:08 am

Who in their right mind would want to win the next election and clean up this mess? I dont think the conservatives want the win, still no new leader. Let the liberals do the dirty work for a change.
Existing liberals will have put in just enough time to collect a full gold plated pension and, more importantly, have no clue how to clean it up.
This government has ruined this country for generations, your kids kids will be paying for this. Hope all you ‘Middle Class’ liberal voters like taxes because there will be no wealthy people left. Money has wings and the middle class peoplekind will be stuck with the bill.

#194 BillyBob on 08.13.20 at 4:12 am

I observe in part-bemusement, part nausea, the mutual back-stroking of MF and Stone and a couple others.

Critical thinkers, yeah…sure. LOL

More like an echo chamber.

Of course the analysis is rearward looking. That’s how analysis works – it requires data (duh). This is not February 2020 anymore.

Nothing wrong with disagreeing with Prem’s article, but don’t even pretend you put up anything that remotely discredits it. Petty shots and sneering dismissals don’t count. At least his bona-fides are in the public domain – yours are…?

The point amply demonstrated in his article is that while of course some overreach was inevitable in the face of a threat of unknown proportions, the sheer magnitude of the response has been totally disproportionate to the threat. And very, very slow to adjust to new data.

I would have thought such great “logical, critical thinkers” would be able to see that lol.

#195 Andrew on 08.13.20 at 5:17 am

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200811005331/en/MicroStrategy-Adopts-Bitcoin-Primary-Treasury-Reserve-Asset

Tick tock…

#196 Arcticfox on 08.13.20 at 7:05 am

Yield curve control(ycc) will be announced by fed at September meeting or next. Last happened late 40’s early 50’s when debt/gdp was similar. No choice but to inflate debt away. Recent Bloomberg article discussing ycc was no coincidence. CPI symmetry will be other buzz word. Regarding au..2 times yearly ag production trading on Comex(unbacked paper)in one day..big money(shorts)aware of above & getting positioned me thinks !

#197 Mr Canada on 08.13.20 at 7:17 am

Everyone agrees Minister Morneau has to leave. The Bloc insists they will vote non-confidence unless everyone resigns (T2, Morneau, Telford, et al) that ain’t going to happen, especially with NDP Support. T2 won’t let Morneau go because he owns the creepy K bros scandal. Carney is the new shiny object Libs gush over, maybe a good finance minister but not PM material. People don’t like technocrats: Martin, Dion, Ignatieff, Astronaut Garneau etc.

#198 Do we have all the facts on 08.13.20 at 7:45 am

#191 Midnights

The concerns expressed by citizens in Italy are very similar to concerns I raised on this blog in March. I questioned why our governments did not solicit the support of actuaries and other professionals to determine accurate projections of the net impact that the Covid 19 virus was having on short term and long term mortality rates of Canadian citizens.

Actuaries analyze data to determine the risks associated with changing conditions and to estimate the financial consequences of each change. Canada relied on projections circulated by health care officials within the WHO, CDC and Health Canada and like many governments around the world quickly adopted a number of ‘better to be safe than sorry’ strategies.

I questioned the motives behind amending the International Classification of Diseases to include UO7.1 Covid 19 and instructing health authorities around the world to use UO7.1 as the primary cause of death if the Covid 19 virus was present and suspected of contributing to a death. I felt that the primary cause of death of many residents of a long term care facility might have been a serious pre-existing condition. Actuaries are trained to determine average life expectancies for a wide range of health issues.

Considering that over 80% of deaths attributed to the Covid 19 virus in Canada were residents of a long term care facility and over 90% were over the age of 65 I felt that an independent group of actuaries could evaluate the net impact of the Covid 19 on mortality rates in all age cohorts and for all citizens with and without serious pre-existing health issues.

Our governments have deliberately crippled the Canadian economy without bothering to evaluate the full extent of financial consequences for current and future generations. Their focus must expand before the damage becomes irreparable.

#199 Bezengy on 08.13.20 at 7:53 am

193 Sue on 08.13.20 at 1:08 am
Who in their right mind would want to win the next election and clean up this mess?

————

Agreed. T2’s legacy will be turning an entire country, or at least a generation into socialists, totally dependent on their governments for their well being. Mark Carney won’t be able to talk austerity or convince anyone in cabinet of the need for responsible financial management. This government just spent 350 b it doesn’t have, mostly to buy votes, wasting billions in the process. It’s time to stand back and let the socialists learn an important lesson. The damage is done.

#200 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.20 at 8:16 am

@#194 BillyBob
“I would have thought such great “logical, critical thinkers” would be able to see that …”

++++
Cant happen in an echo chamber, zero illumination.

#201 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.20 at 8:22 am

@#199 Bezengy & Sue
“This government just spent 350 b it doesn’t have, mostly to buy votes, wasting billions in the process. It’s time to stand back and let the socialists learn an important lesson. The damage is done.”
+++

Yep.
Why would anyone want to inherit this fiscal disaster AND the painful reconstruction.
All while enduring the wrath of the braying, CERB-less, voters that cant balance a cheque book much less understand who brought them to the edge……
The alternative?
4 more years of Trudeau ?
God help us all.

#202 Montana Bob on 08.13.20 at 9:02 am

23 IHCTD9 on 08.12.20 at 11:57 am
I don’t think it matters in the event of a Mortgage market meltdown if a bank has private mortgage insurance on this or that house.
If a large crapload of mortgage defaults happen such that the banking system starts to fail (private insurers might pay out a few claims – but go broke quick in a GFC type scenario) – I believe the CMHC would still be on the hook to save the banks. Their concern is the system – not this or that house.
They don’t care about a risky loan here or there – but they do care about the entire banking sector carrying on with risky mortgage loans via private insurance while knowing the CMHC is still there to bail them all out if it blows up (like it did in the US).

Well, CMHC is insuring mortgages. How does any insurance company work? People pay and there are few claims. If there are many claims, then insurance company could default.
If private mortgage insurers cannot cover mortgage defaults, let them fail. If CMHC cannot cover mortgage defaults, let them fail too. CMHC has no responsibility to bail banks, but to cover mortgage defaults they insure. If they insured mortgages they cannot cover, that is their responsibility. If CMHC fails, banks will take a hit. Similar thing happened in Iceland. Government refused to bail out banks. They let them fail.
If CMHC concern was the system, then why are they saying it right now? Housing bubble was inflating for last 25 years. And all of the sudden, CMHC is concerned? They are concerned only about their own existence, not about the wellbeing of average Canadian.
What happened in US was government bailed out banks, and in the meantime, greater fools were departed of their savings. And they had to start from a scratch.

#136 willworkforpickles on 08.12.20 at 7:03 pm
The cream of the crop top end properties that will come online in distress mode will see a little buying frenzy there.
You are correct, but, unfortunately I am not in that category to look for very high end property. That is above my paygrade. Percentage of those high end properties is low. I am more inclined to look for something modest, average and functional.

#203 Sue on 08.13.20 at 9:03 am

193 Sue on 08.13.20 at 1:08 am
Who in their right mind would want to win the next election and clean up this mess?

————

Agreed. T2’s legacy will be turning an entire country, or at least a generation into socialists, totally dependent on their governments for their well being. Mark Carney won’t be able to talk austerity or convince anyone in cabinet of the need for responsible financial management. This government just spent 350 b it doesn’t have, mostly to buy votes, wasting billions in the process. It’s time to stand back and let the socialists learn an important lesson. The damage is done.
..——————————————————————————————

Yup! Ive been telling all my acquaintances (Teachers/ gov workers) who were quite verbal on voting liberal last couple elections that im definitely going to vote liberal in the next election for the first time but just for fun so i can watch them try fix the mess. Of course they’ve gone silent now and look at me in horror. Keeps the political talk around the fire to a minimum which is nice. I can drink less now.

#204 Dharma Bum on 08.13.20 at 9:26 am

#91 Mark Wolovetz

For people who want stable returns more than 5 times the return on a current GIC why not?

25% Gold.
25% Long bonds.
25% Short term bonds.
25% Stock market(canadian etf, world etf, USA Total stock market etf whatever combo you want for your stock portion.)
——————————————————————-

This overlooks the many benefits of alternative income strategies, with low correlation to market volatility, that have been tremendously advantageous for investors in the past decades.

For example:

Private Equity
Private Debt
Bridge Financing
Risk Arbitrage
SPACs
Real Estate

These are currently available to the retail investor (formerly being exclusive to institutional investors) via specialized ETFs and funds administered by respectable financial management companies with solid track records.

25% in gold is way to high. If one is hell bent on holding gold for comfort, I would limit it to 5%-10% maximum, and diversify further (15%-20%) into alternative investments (split among the various types as noted above).

You’ll then see a long term annual return of 7-8 times a GIC, with only marginally more risk.

#205 Stone on 08.13.20 at 9:38 am

#192 Don Guillermo on 08.13.20 at 1:01 am
#180 Stone on 08.12.20 at 9:45 pm
Here’s the mask video I’m more concerned about. – Garth

———

Wow! I so thought that Americans had learned something after Rick Mercer’s Talking to Americans a few years back and how stupid they made themselves out to be. I guess not.

Dumb doesn’t even describe it.

I know there are intelligent Americans out there too. Where are they though? Canada?
**********************************

Using a contrived TV show to make you feel intelligent and superior doesn’t say much. Canadians like you are too common and a huge embarrassment.

———

I don’t think those Youtubers had to work really hard to get those clips. I think it was more about which pieces of the footage to use for the final cut and what to leave out. I suspect they have hours of that but at one point, viewers would become numb at the group insanity.

I’ve met and dealt with lots of Americans. Many are well balanced individuals. Unfortunately, there are as many who are insane.

Also, I don’t need a video to feel intelligent or superior. You should know by now I simply am. Don’t worry. I’ll wait for you to catch up.

#206 David Hawke on 08.13.20 at 9:42 am

Good quesrion, eh!

#115 Alberta Ed on 08.12.20 at 6:10 pm
Carney is apparently a big fan of juvenile “climate warrior” Greta, which calls into question his credibility on other issues.

#207 Flop... on 08.13.20 at 9:49 am

184 Drinking on 08.12.20 at 10:37 pm
#153 Flop…
To be completely expected; if you have time I would be interested to see the losses in the hotel/motel industries.
Mind you; I believe that it was you that posted on how well insurance companies were doing last week; if not you, then my appologies!

/////////////////////

Hey Drinkie, it lists Booking, which I took to be the travel company at 577 million loss for the first half of 2020

Didn’t see any hotel chains listed but maybe I’m blind, as well as dumb.

https://howmuch.net/articles/impact-covid19-major-corporations

Also here is the most recent insurance article, slightly different from the last…

M46BC

Visualizing the 50 Most Profitable Insurance Companies in the U.S.

https://howmuch.net/articles/top-50-most-profitable-us-insurance-companies-2020

#208 TurnerNation on 08.13.20 at 9:51 am

In this the Incrementalism leading to the new system of banking/money in 2022-2023? See BofC news below.

Also consider which “science based approach” your province is taking, the one where everyone is healthy no one is or was ever sick, is still keeping you in a “State of emergency” and restricting rights to travel, assemble, and how you may run your business. Why? To what end? Short answer is they are lock step, goosing the system as they are told to do. Timelines are key here.
As in WW2, this WW3 is using beaches (fun places) as a tool of war, battles splashed on the front pages.
And if all wars are bankers wars have I got something for you:

“FP says TD, rivals see BOC eye Interac e-transfers
The Financial Post reports in its Thursday, Aug. 13, edition that Interac Corp.’s e-transfer service is now so essential that a breakdown of the payment system could wound the economy and unnerve companies and consumers, the Bank of Canada says. The Post’s Geoff Zochodne writes that the digital- transaction service has become such a key way of paying for things that BOC Governor Tiff Macklem decided to use his limited regulatory powers to designate Interac e-transfer a “prominent payment system” as of Monday, a notice published in the Canada Gazette said. The new label means Interac’s e-transfer system will now be regulated by the BOC, and highlights the importance of digital payments to both people and businesses, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Interac is owned by Canadian banks, credit unions, payment processors and other shareholders. The Bank of Canada said in a news release: “Interac e-transfer has become central to the Canadian payments system. A disruption or failure of the Interac e-transfer system could cause a significant adverse effect on economic activity in Canada, potentially leading to a general loss of confidence in the overall Canadian payments system.”
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

#209 YVR Expat on 08.13.20 at 10:05 am

The COVID Karen’s are out in full force, pushing extreme public shame on those that aren’t wearing a mask while walking outside. Are we heretics for pointing this out? Couple that with social media and you have your new religion – public shame.

#210 TurnerNation on 08.13.20 at 10:20 am

WELL well well Incrementalism again. I’d posted here few months ago that I thought they are TRAINING us to be lined up outside supermarkets..why…for potential needle jab locations. (And why I think Sports arenas are being kept closed here)
What comes out today:

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that Loblaw’s Shoppers Drug Mart is opening medical clinics in Toronto where family physicians will be available to take on a roster of patients and accept appointments for walk-in services. A Canadian Press dispatch to The Globe reports that Shoppers’ first pilot clinic opened in the city’s midtown, with two more planned for the Greater Toronto Area over the next year, including one downtown. The clinic is open from 8:30 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Monday through Thursday, but closes at 2:30 p.m. on Fridays. It is closed on the weekend right now, but the clinic is planning to expand its hours in the fall. Two of the five physicians listed on its website are accepting new patients, for family medicine, primary care gynecology and sexually transmitted infection testing, although the clinic also said it wants to expand walk-in availability going forward. Shoppers has been expanding beyond traditional retail and says it has created a team of physicians to implement the health clinic business. Shoppers believes doctors will appreciate it taking on the “administrative burden and allowing them to spend all of their practising time dealing directly with patients.”
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

#211 drongo on 08.13.20 at 10:24 am

@#205 Stone on 08.13.20 at 9:38 am
#192 Don Guillermo on 08.13.20 at 1:01 am
#180 Stone on 08.12.20 at 9:45 pm
Here’s the mask video I’m more concerned about. – Garth

———

Wow! I so thought that Americans had learned something after Rick Mercer’s Talking to Americans a few years back and how stupid they made themselves out to be. I guess not.

Dumb doesn’t even describe it.

I know there are intelligent Americans out there too. Where are they though? Canada?
**********************************

Using a contrived TV show to make you feel intelligent and superior doesn’t say much. Canadians like you are too common and a huge embarrassment.

———

I don’t think those Youtubers had to work really hard to get those clips. I think it was more about which pieces of the footage to use for the final cut and what to leave out. I suspect they have hours of that but at one point, viewers would become numb at the group insanity.

I’ve met and dealt with lots of Americans. Many are well balanced individuals. Unfortunately, there are as many who are insane.
————————

go easy on guillermo. he’s not the sharpest tool in the toolbox lol

#212 kc on 08.13.20 at 10:30 am

183 Ballingsford on 08.12.20 at 10:06 pm

——
Yah, paper straws suck, that’s why I stopped going to A&W.
Feels and tastes like fingernails on a chalkboard.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Yes I stopped also… don’t ever order a milkshake from A&W … i bet you 100 bucks the straw will fall apart and you feel like a fool trying ro suck icecream up a paper roll…..

on a different note, first time in ages I listened to CKNW for an hour this morning… 100% Cororna virus propaganda non stop… I can’t believe how long they been pushing this….

No wondering I haven’t watched TV and news in 7 weeks now…. it is all over the top.

cheers

ps, I watched your vid from california garth after the mask parody,

makes me ask, you pro mask or are you with the ppl telling the 2 dudes to F.O. when offered a free mask??

#213 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.20 at 10:34 am

@#203 Sue
“…..im definitely going to vote liberal in the next election for the first time but just for fun so i can watch them try fix the mess. Of course they’ve gone silent now and look at me in horror….”
++++

Yep.

As much as I loathe the thought of Trudeau stuttering through another 4 years of “pressers”….it actually might be amusing watching the CERB mob turn on him.

I’ll have to wait and see who eventually becomes the Leader of the Cons.

#214 DLee on 08.13.20 at 10:40 am

#177 Jenna on 08.12.20 at 8:58 pm
——————————————–

Not sure about farms but certainly Ontario residential real estate purchase history can be looked up here:

https://www.onland.ca/ui/

#215 Big Bozo on 08.13.20 at 10:57 am

Uh oh !! Credit scores are not invulnerable .

https://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=13mon01&mobile=false

With the head of CMHC telling you that the low hanging fruit are getting grabbed up by vultures can yo imagine how many if these deferrals are going into the goon file instead of sheltering under the CMHC umbrella? The public lender of last resort has rules, some humanity when it comes to foreclose, not the goon squad who’ll foreclose as fast as snakebite.

Oh oh spagetti-o’s. Shit- Hit-fan- splat.

#216 Sail Away on 08.13.20 at 10:59 am

#209 YVR Expat on 08.13.20 at 10:05 am

The COVID Karen’s are out in full force, pushing extreme public shame on those that aren’t wearing a mask while walking outside. Are we heretics for pointing this out? Couple that with social media and you have your new religion – public shame.

—————

Yep, the volunteer police will always be with us.

I consider them the ‘fad’ people. This pill, that diet, this challenge, that headline. Always gullibly being led about by the nose.

Religion used to be their bailiwick.

#217 IHCTD9 on 08.13.20 at 11:02 am

#203 Sue on 08.13.20 at 9:03 am

Yup! Ive been telling all my acquaintances (Teachers/ gov workers) who were quite verbal on voting liberal last couple elections that im definitely going to vote liberal in the next election for the first time but just for fun so i can watch them try fix the mess. Of course they’ve gone silent now and look at me in horror. Keeps the political talk around the fire to a minimum which is nice. I can drink less now.
___

What good would getting the Cons/NDP/whoever in if they don’t get like 20 years worth of consecutive majorities anyway? I won’t live to see 10% of this debt paid off – not a chance!

This is Canada – the second any politician tries to fix a financial mess – they get booted. Harper cut the post GFC deficits down every year, it was less than a billion in 2015 – and look what we did.

I think I’ll vote Lib too – they might as well wear it. I’ll exit the currency if I have to, but I’ll stay here in Canada for the show.

#218 Do we have all the facts on 08.13.20 at 11:10 am

#163 Bytor

Thank you for the link to a most informative article.

The author captures my sentiments about the refusal of many governments to base their response to the Covid 19 virus on actual facts. Surely the primary role of the fifth estate is to focus on the truth not to fall into line with the hysteria driven by fallacious predictions of death within the general population. We have been let down by institutions that should have protected us from such hysteria.

I remember the Hong Kong flu in 1968 and that it might have been responsible for as many as 4,000,000 deaths worldwide. Without a separate classification it was estimated that the Hong Kong flu was the primary cause of death of 4,000 Canadians. It was a serious threat to our health but the media and our governments never considered any form of lockdown and the crisis passed.

When will the truth about the Covid 19 virus emerge from the plethora of paranoia clouding our judgement.

#219 Damifino on 08.13.20 at 11:31 am

#115 Alberta Ed

Carney is apparently a big fan of juvenile “climate warrior” Greta, which calls into question his credibility on other issues.
————————————

I desperately hope this is not true, or at the very least, an exaggeration. It’s as bad as finding out Warren Buffet chooses his investments by examining goat entrails and consulting Nostradamus.

From Michael Schellenberger’s Apocalypse Never:

… when we hear activists journalists, IPCC scientists and others claim climate change will be apocalyptic unless we make immediate radical changes, including massive reductions in energy consumption, we might consider whether they are motivated by love for humanity or something closer to its opposite.

#220 Penny Henny on 08.13.20 at 11:48 am

#59 MF on 08.12.20 at 2:31 pm
#10 David Pylyp on 08.12.20 at 11

Lol at this realtor propaganda.

Maybe they will drop interest rates to -10% and give another “mortgage deferral” to this joke of an industry.

MF
////////////////

Propaganda?

You sure you’re not in denial?

#221 IHCTD9 on 08.13.20 at 11:55 am

#174 zee on 08.12.20 at 8:54 pm

This is what i have been saying all along, how can people pass the stress test today when they could not a few months ago at lower prices.
___

Stress test percentage level has been lowered. The interest rates are lower too – so overall the passing % is lower now than it was before. Move up buyers bringing more fresh cash to the table when the market moves up also.

All these things make it easier to borrow more. If folks had big problems getting a mortgage, we’d see some of that on the lower end of the RE market. But it looks more like the the low end is where the insanity is.

A 120K earning couple who liquidated their condo and put their proceeds AND savings (all of it) towards a SFD purchase might only have a 3000 mortgage payment. That is perfectly doable on two 60K incomes

I can easily see loads of folks like the above who can get a mortgage and afford a 1-1.5 Mil house. There are probably more couples like this available than there are houses for sale under 1.5 Million in the GTA.

Yeah, if you’re single with no equity or savings and aren’t a 1%er – you’re screwed. Cashing out the equity earned in the recent GTA RE market moves mountains when it comes to buying another house. Not having any is where all the issues begin with affordability.

#222 Dirty Dan on 08.13.20 at 12:00 pm

#213 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.20 at 10:34 am

As much as I loathe the thought of Trudeau stuttering through another 4 years of “pressers”….it actually might be amusing watching the CERB mob turn on him.

Remember when the mob turned on Mommar Gadhafi?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGm492qVEzA

#223 MF on 08.13.20 at 12:05 pm

220 Penny Henny on 08.13.20 at 11

Yes I’m sure.

This system is a house or cards. Mortgage deferrals are a joke and is a policy that just further erodes personal responsibility. Can’t pay your mortgage? Shouldn’t be so leveraged.

And interest rates are a too low. Too low for too long.

Yes I’m sure.

MF

#224 yana on 08.13.20 at 12:08 pm

Hi Garth,
I live in Ottawa, and the house prices here have been growing out of control for a few years now, mainly because inventory has been shrinking. I don’t think that much will change when the CERB payments are stopped. Since people buying these houses now are not the ones that are receiving CERB payments. There may be a few cases where current homeowners that lost their jobs during the pandemic and are relying on CERB payments may need to sell but I don’t think it will be that much of a market changer. People that lost jobs belong to a different work sector, and are usually not the one’s that drive the housing market.

#225 MF on 08.13.20 at 12:09 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israel-uae-reach-historic-deal-diplomatic-relations-1.5684905

Trump helped broker historic peace initiative in the Mideast !

Normalized relations between the UAE and Israel. Incredible. Great news.

We knew it was coming, relations have been improving under the radar between Israel and her Arab neighbours for over a decade. Big development that will bode well during the election for the Republicans.

MF

#226 Bill on 08.13.20 at 12:16 pm

#201 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.20 at 8:22 am
——————-
+1
they trained my nieces they can quit their jobs a stay home to smoke dope…..and get paid….dum asses

#227 Bill on 08.13.20 at 12:22 pm

DELETED

#228 Sue on 08.13.20 at 12:48 pm

#213 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.20 at 10:34 am

Havent we all been waiting to hear who the Con leader is? Getting ridiculous really. I was disappointed Pierre Pollievre wasnt in the race. Hes a pitbull at question period.
Luckily im in Alberta and hoping it wont be our problem next election. Alberta has gone quiet and not in a good way, people are fed up. Maybe Stephen Harper could lead us ‘middle’ provinces outta here. Fingers crossed

#229 Don Guillermo on 08.13.20 at 12:48 pm

@#205 Stone on 08.13.20 at 9:38 am
#192 Don Guillermo on 08.13.20 at 1:01 am
#180 Stone on 08.12.20 at 9:45 pm
Here’s the mask video I’m more concerned about. – Garth

———

Wow! I so thought that Americans had learned something after Rick Mercer’s Talking to Americans a few years back and how stupid they made themselves out to be. I guess not.

Dumb doesn’t even describe it.

I know there are intelligent Americans out there too. Where are they though? Canada?
**********************************

Using a contrived TV show to make you feel intelligent and superior doesn’t say much. Canadians like you are too common and a huge embarrassment.

———

I don’t think those Youtubers had to work really hard to get those clips. I think it was more about which pieces of the footage to use for the final cut and what to leave out. I suspect they have hours of that but at one point, viewers would become numb at the group insanity.

I’ve met and dealt with lots of Americans. Many are well balanced individuals. Unfortunately, there are as many who are insane.
****************************************

Americans could easily put together something similar to Mercer filming around Canadian cities (with much better quality). They just don’t.

#230 TurnerNation on 08.13.20 at 12:55 pm

Ah yes I plumbed the Greaterfool archives – the boneyard littered with rusting Harley parts.
Here is the prediction – and today Shoppers Drug Mart and Loblaws announced they are opening up medical clinics in-store…things that make you go hmm.
………….

#262 TurnerNation on 04.10.20 at 11:10 am
Hey are they conditioning us to wait in long lines outside of supermarkets (with pharmacies inside) and the Drug Stores?
T2 just told us. No one may buy or sell with normalcy unless they get a jab.
How to get that miracle needle? The same places currently offering flu shots.
….you’ll have to wait in long lineups outside supermarkets with pharmacies, and drug stores.

We are like animals to our rulers. Training us well. Shock and awe.

#231 Sue on 08.13.20 at 1:00 pm

#217 IHCTD9 on 08.13.20 at 11:02 am
I agree with you, one party pays down the debt. The next spends like a drunken sailor. Perhaps we need to screen a little more in politics. Say a questionnaire…
Ill start…
1. Can you balance a cheque book?
2. Did you pass grade 5 math?
3. Do you have a conscience?..

But seriously,
Its time we set the bar a little higher

#232 Faron on 08.13.20 at 1:44 pm

Observation of the day:

The correlation could be spurious, but one of the drivers of the 10 year yield seems to be US coronavirus infection rate. After the feb/march liquidity madness settled down, yields rose as cases dropped into early-June and then reversed as cases rose into July. Yields climbing again now that US cases are falling. Canadian 10 year seems to more or less follow.

US yield has climbed 20 basis points from 0.51 to 0.71 over the past week. Canadian 14 basis as of yesterday.

Garth informs us that these yields drive mortgage rates. May want to lock in now if you are in the market.

#233 Sail Away on 08.13.20 at 1:44 pm

#229 Don Guillermo on 08.13.20 at 12:48 pm
@#205 Stone on 08.13.20 at 9:38 am

Americans could easily put together something similar to Mercer filming around Canadian cities (with much better quality). They just don’t.

—————-

Mostly because it’s not the overriding American passion to continually prove smug superiority over Canada.

Mercer could also have done it in Toronto… but nobody would watch it. Call it Trump’s America, though, and you’re off to the races with Canadians gleefully snickering up their sleeves.

Childish, but that’s to be expected from TV. Gotta appeal to those who watch. Looking at you, Stone.

#234 Faron on 08.13.20 at 1:57 pm

#229 Don Guillermo on 08.13.20 at 12:48 pm

Americans could easily put together something similar to Mercer filming around Canadian cities (with much better quality). They just don’t.

Differences of style. IMO Conan does it best.

#235 MF on 08.13.20 at 2:22 pm

235 Sail Away on 08.13.20 at 1:44

Yeah no. I’m going to disagree with this one too.

I’m on a lot of American forums and all they do is talk about how great they are in comparison to everyone else.

Wrong.

On Mercer, Some of the questions they asked Americans were pretty far flung. “Do canadians live in igloos?” And such.

Of course there was editing involved to eliminate the smart segments of Americans, but I don’t think It would just be the same thing in reverse.

Wrong again.

Your comment about Toronto is just laughable. So wrongfor a third time.

MF

#236 Penny Henny on 08.13.20 at 2:35 pm

#223 MF on 08.13.20 at 12:05 pm
220 Penny Henny on 08.13.20 at 11

Yes I’m sure.

This system is a house or cards. Mortgage deferrals are a joke and is a policy that just further erodes personal responsibility. Can’t pay your mortgage? Shouldn’t be so leveraged.

And interest rates are a too low. Too low for too long.

Yes I’m sure.

MF
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I was refering to the part about real estate propaganda

#237 maxx on 08.13.20 at 2:40 pm

@ #37

They are culpable, just not accountale.

#238 Entrepreneur on 08.13.20 at 2:57 pm

Sue, Bezengy are so wrong on letting the Federal Liberals wear it. BC voted Provincial Liberals for 20 years thinking the same thing, let them wear it.

But it just got worse and worse like a horrific nightmare!!!

As for IHCTDQ, I would be careful how and why you would vote. Not a good quality for a reason to vote in this economic mess.

I think the election will be more between the Conservatives and Wexit, the West has had enough.

I agree with #202 Montana Bob…let it fall, let it all fall.

If a regular business makes many mistakes, they correct the mistake from the beginning or they fall, simple as that.

These group leaders that keep this up are destroying our citizens as a nation and our environment (hard for some to understand.)

#239 Barb on 08.13.20 at 3:07 pm

Seems B.C. teachers need another 2 days to figure things out (because 5 months off have not been enough), so school reopens September 10th.

Perhaps someone should tell our Teachers’ Minister (oops, Education Minister), that Alberta schools are reopening BEFORE the Labour Day weekend.

Well done, Alberta!

#240 Don Guillermo on 08.13.20 at 3:12 pm

#237 MF on 08.13.20 at 2:22 pm
235 Sail Away on 08.13.20 at 1:44

Yeah no. I’m going to disagree with this one too.

I’m on a lot of American forums and all they do is talk about how great they are in comparison to everyone else
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Kinda like what you’re doing now?

#241 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.13.20 at 3:25 pm

#237 MF on 08.13.20 at 2:22 pm
235 Sail Away on 08.13.20 at 1:44

Yeah no. I’m going to disagree with this one too.

I’m on a lot of American forums and all they do is talk about how great they are in comparison to everyone else.

Wrong.

On Mercer, Some of the questions they asked Americans were pretty far flung. “Do canadians live in igloos?” And such.

Of course there was editing involved to eliminate the smart segments of Americans, but I don’t think It would just be the same thing in reverse.

Wrong again.

Your comment about Toronto is just laughable. So wrongfor a third time.

MF

What would we ever do without this MFer correcting our personal opinions or experiences? Thank you super genius!

#242 IHCTD9 on 08.13.20 at 3:37 pm

#229 Don Guillermo on 08.13.20 at 12:48 pm

Americans could easily put together something similar to Mercer filming around Canadian cities (with much better quality). They just don’t.
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Yep. I could make a few phone calls to some Canadians I know, and present you with a recording of a guy who can’t name our current Prime Minister, doesn’t know what a hockey puck is, never heard of Farley Mowat, and really did think a lot Canadians lived in igloos. I could nail all that down in 15 minutes or less.

Guys like our resident Lord “Stone” would definitely think they’re all dumb as rocks of course. He probably laughs at physically disabled folks too, they’re all dumb, quite unlike his Majesty.

#243 Bill on 08.13.20 at 4:39 pm

DELETED

#244 Drinking on 08.13.20 at 8:15 pm

#207 Flop…

Wow, thanks for the links; they are an eye opener!

#245 Robert Ash on 08.13.20 at 9:58 pm

It is kind of a symptom of Canada’s prospects today, only Real Estate, seems, to be the game… I think CMHC’s Sidall, is correct in his comments, and warnings. It is terrible to think many young inexperienced couples, can get sucked into an Asset bubble, based on the current, Politics. These are life changing debts, in some cases… This whole RE, is the only game offers an indictment, for our Leaders and Government. Limit and Hobble our one Big Export…. Auto’s in trouble, Forrest Products – Mill closures, Cannabis Misallocation of Capital, all sadly indications, Canada, is in Decline. This is all we can come up with in the second largest most sparsely populated country, in the world, with likely the most Natural Resources… The Mills are getting a lot of poor advice, and guidance.