Infectious

So how do you like 2020 so far?

The fastest descent into a bear stock market ever as the virus hit. Then the quickest recovery. From full employment in the US to over 30 million jobless. Our federal deficit swelled a dozen times larger than planned. Mortgages plunged below 2%. And while eight million people went on government support with almost a million unable to pay their loans, real estate took off again. Airlines cratered. Retail was crushed. And two-thirds of people are too scared to go back to work. But the S&P is up 17% from last August and grew 50% since March. Now we’re thirteen weeks from a US election the results of which could be transformative.

  And Covid? Almost 20 million cases across the world, big troubles for America and Canadians have been told to mask up for a second wave. Maybe. So far 0.03% of us have tested positive for the virus and it was only five months ago that federal health minister Patty Hajdu (remember her?) had this terrifying statement:

“I would say that it is safe to assume that it could be between 30 per cent of the population that acquire COVID-19 and 70 per cent of the population.”

Was that totally irresponsible? Or just uninformed? In fact no country on earth has experienced that rate of infection. In Canada alone it would have meant 15 million to 26 million people with Covid. As it turned out, 120,000 souls got it. Of those 111,000 have recovered.

However, we turned off the economy, made public finances circle the drained, destroyed a number of industries, ensured higher future taxes, created structural unemployment, turned downtowns into ghost towns and scared the stuffing out of a majority of the population.

Seems Mr. Market has decided a few things.

  • The pandemic can be contained, controlled and conquered. It’s temporary. It will end.
  • 2021 will likely be a catch-up year of rampant growth, recovery and the restoration of profits.
  • Politicians screwed things up so monumentally that excessive spending will continue in order to paper over consequences.
  • Interest rates will be in the ditch until 2023 with bonds and savings paying nothing, pushing more dollars into equities.
  • There will be a vaccine. Or at least a good treatment. It will change everything overnight.
  • Trump is done. Biden is a centrist. Trade wars will fade.
  • And the virus episode brought new opportunity (the stay-at-home sector) while pumping up tech (the FAANG boys) and creating value (airlines – people will fly again).

There are many lessons for you, me and those who want a secure life.

Don’t be afraid of volatility, because we’re now into years of it. Markets will move more violently up and down. Ignore it. If 2020 has taught us anything it’s that those who react to short-term fluctuations end up as road kill.

Society will take time to heal from the damage done by the fearmongering and missteps of politicians. The virus may not be done, but so far the government and financial response has been overkill. The economy cannot function with social distancing in place, masks, no large gatherings and two-thirds of employees afraid of their workplaces. It’s not different this time.

The year so far has been a complete validation of investing in a balanced and diversified fashion. When the market crashed in March, equity losses were tempered by bond gains. When CBs crushed rates, fixed income assets jumped. When stock markets recovered, so did the growth portion of portfolios. As in 2008-9, a balanced portfolio fell less, reduced volatility and regained ground quickly. Sixty per cent growth, forty per cent fixed wins again. Set it, and forget it.

Time to get serious about tax avoidance. Governments can’t drop the hammer just yet because of a fragile economic recovery, but they will. In Canada we may see a new tax bracket created for higher income-earners, an increase in the capital gains inclusion rate, maybe even a financial transaction tax, another assault on professional corps or a real estate speculation levy. Whatever. Taxes are going up, not down. Act accordingly.

Fill your TFSA to the top. Use RRSPs and registered education plans for your kids, harvesting tax deductions and free grant money. Take advantage of the cheap prescribed interest rate (1%) to make a spousal loan and income-split. Open a retirement plan for your lower-income partner. Invest to earn cap gains and dividends rather than rent or income.

As for real estate, don’t fall for the run-to-the-burbs meme. It’s temporary. Downtowns will repopulate in time. People will commute again and want urban locations. Condos will take longer to recover in proportion to height, so buy low-rise. Lock in your mortgage – five years at under 2%. It’s a once-in-a-lifetime gift. And wait to purchase (if you can truly afford it) until the mortgage deferral cliff arrives.

Remember this year. Especially what’s to come.

 

186 comments ↓

#1 KNOW IT ALL on 08.09.20 at 12:18 pm

And PRIORITY #1

Take care of your health.

Without it you got nothing!

#2 TurnerNation on 08.09.20 at 12:18 pm

The oldsters need to get out more. Toronto party strips and sidewalks and patios and indoor/outdoor spaces and parks are absolutely full with people as they always were. Much late night partying. (This must be hard for the Branch Covidians to see. Free people)
All normal and happy healthy people. Oh I forgot….mucho deaths coming. In two week’s time. Always two more weeks…….
It’s over. It never was. The only horror is on the telescreens.

…..
Next up:

More info on the New System being rolled out.
Everything has been inverted.
– Savers are to be punished and discouraged.
– Spendthrifts, layabouts and cheats are to be rewarded by endless government handouts.
– That healthy smiling people are abnormal.
– Children are no longer to be protected and cherished. No at school they must be subject to new prison-type protocols. NO fun, no playtime, no extra curricular events. Just straight up indoctrination.
– Prisoners in USA still being released – possibly to cause mayhem around election time. .

Hey you can’t inDoctrinate without a doctor.
(To “doctor” something means to alter its nature)
They are really ramping up the germ and mask fear on radio and telescreens.

I overhead some CV religion adherents breathlessly discussing the latest revelation and tribulation their telescreen beamed to them. That one person affected…wait for it… 800 people. Where? At a church naturally – the very thing they want banned in the New System. Never at a Liquor store or Weed processing plant.

Like have you ever heard of such a thing before of a flu-like ?
However this thing is so deadly you must be tested to know you have it. No symptoms (healthy) = sickness and lockdown.

You didn’t really want your old rights back and way of life right? Stay safe and comply comply comply with you new CV religion directives

#3 SoggyShorts on 08.09.20 at 12:23 pm

#60 The other Doug, in London on 08.08.20 at 10:47 pm

As a matter of fact, I DID sell bond funds back in March
*******************
Ok but… you did have bonds to sell, and now you’re saying people should not have bonds. So what should they have instead?

(in before Turn Nation hits refresh?)

As I see it the 2 best ways to make money with your PF are
1. Buy the stuff that goes up the most (equities)
2. Buy low, sell high (rebalancing)

If you go all in on #1 you have no room for #2, so your PF needs bonds or something else that doesn’t move with equities

#4 Leftover on 08.09.20 at 12:36 pm

The year ain’t over until Biden gets elected. Then happy days are here again, save for the pesky inflation problem that lurks in the wings.

If governments can’t or won’t turn of the fear-mongering tap along with the printing press then 2021 is going to be a different ride as CB’s run out of room.

Remember stagflation?

#5 Felix on 08.09.20 at 12:39 pm

What an…umm….interesting looking canine….likely quite attractive to dogawful low IQ mutt owners.

Dogs and their humans = gene pool meets cesspool

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArpuB62uEHI

#6 Rick Fast on 08.09.20 at 12:42 pm

GTA bubble will burst late 2020 early 2021. Expect 30% off.

#7 Ben Hur on 08.09.20 at 12:44 pm

First!

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.20 at 12:53 pm

Garth, over the years you have consistently recommended to small business owners to avoid taking dividends and take any business profits as salary or as a bonus income.
Why would a small business owner increase their annual income via bonuses ( thus moving into a higher tax bracket) when they can pay themselves dividends at a lower tax rate OR leave the money in the small business to take at a later date? ( when your annual income or salary drops due to retirement).

#9 FreeBird on 08.09.20 at 12:53 pm

FANG CEOs grilled by US lawmakers/congress on business practices (not first time):

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/07/29/technology/tech-ceos-hearing-testimony.amp.html

Yet stocks rose…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/07/30/amazon-apple-facebook-google-earnings/?outputType=amp

Same cos in charge of personal/private info for contact tracing (part of larger digital tracking pgm in other countries.) Data often held in massive server farms (offshore):

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/15/covid-safe-app-australia-how-download-does-it-work-australian-government-covidsafe-covid19-tracking-downloads

Legalities of contact tracing:
https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/d7a9a296/contact-tracing-apps-a-new-world-for-data-privacy

This will further divide socially responsible who say any price is worth cost (or collateral damage) and resistant who will see as yet further erosion of freedoms. Maybe we need to ask more whys and require more/solid studies to back up more changes to privacy/freedom? Like those who are all for replacing all money w/digital currency…Be careful what you ask for and agree to. Just a suggestion.

Great dog picture also good see people out enjoying life on Garth’s new IG pic. Prob irked our govt (and stay the hell away guy)

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.20 at 12:54 pm

@#5 Felix.

Busy yesterday ?
Celebrating International Cat Day with your buddies?

#11 Doug t on 08.09.20 at 12:57 pm

Lol – Biden is a poor replacement for Trump. Remember all the “HOPE” surrounding Obama’s election and then the sad lack of anything besides endless deaths in countries all over the world due to his policies – it doesn’t matter who wins – the country is crumbling before our eyes

#12 MF on 08.09.20 at 1:07 pm

Different tone today.

Hate to nit-picky but:

-I thought rates were going to rise at some point, and that the “emergency”, once-in-a-lifetime low rates were temporary and poised to increase already? Here we are again at 0%. Great :/ there’s always a excuse to lower.

-Of course downtown living will always be attractive. It will be tempered though. Work from home is here to stay. Some will opt for driveways and backwards further away, but..unlike what some on this blog think..that doesn’t mean miles and miles from the city core. Think the suburbs like Vaughan as an example.

-The tax situation is far from a Canada only worry. Pretty much everyone spent big during this disaster. If taxes go up, and I actually don’t think they will (heard it here too many times already), then it will be because they have gone up everywhere else.

But get rid of the principle residence capital gains exemption. It has created a monster. It needs to go.

MF

#13 Indigirl on 08.09.20 at 1:07 pm

You are right about downtowns repopulating. Suburbs look great and are comfortable now because so much downtown is still shut down: no live theatre, no sports, no concerts, no symphony, etc. Once those all resume people will remember why they want to work and live downtown.

#14 forgotmyusername on 08.09.20 at 1:08 pm

Well, respectfully, I have to challenge one of your assumptions: “Trump is done.”

Speaking as someone who understands US politics better than I understand Canadian politics, methinks Mr. Turner dismisses Mr. Trump too swiftly.

If the Dems had nominated a real centrist who didn’t have so much baggage — and was under 70 — then, yes, I too would predict a Trump loss in 2020.

But Biden? He’s got issues. To put it mildly. Also, he doesn’t generate much voter enthusiasm, other than he’s not Trump. Low voter enthusiasm has not worked out for the Dems in past elections (Think Dukakis, Kerry, etc.)

Next, Biden has swung left to the extent that either he is no longer a centrist, or he has no core beliefs. Either one opens him up to much criticism.

Meanwhile, Republicans and Trump supporters (who are not necessarily the same two groups) think if the Dems win then society will be destroyed. And they will all be ‘cancelled’ for the crime of having supported Trump. Let’s just say they are motivated.

I think you’d rather not make this a Covid or US politics blog, and that’s pretty smart! So, I apologize for injecting politics into this.

But like many (most?) Canadians, you dismiss Trump’s chances too quickly and easily. Could be he will surprise everyone yet again. And the US will get 4 more years of the most vicious and unconstructive infighting imaginable. The GOP is accustomed to minority status but the Dems are super poor losers. If Trump wins a 2nd term, expect rioting on a massive and prolonged scale. THAT will be a problem.

Myself, I wish both parties were running baggage-free, able centrists, of any gender, under 70 years of age. Instead we have yet another election where either choice ….stinks! (I am a dual national and I still vote in US elections at the federal level.)

I know “under 70” sounds like age bias. But it’s a really, really hard job that lasts 4 years and seems to put 20 years on any office holder’s looks and vigor. So these two nominees are already too old, in my opinion. It’s a shame, really. A country that big and those two miserable choices are what voters have to swallow.

I love how Canada is not limited to a 2-party trap!

#15 conan on 08.09.20 at 1:23 pm

I do not think we would have gone into total economic lock down for a .03 infection rate. I believer the other theory. 20 % plus had Covid when we we went into shut down. And that is why they did it.

#16 Joe on 08.09.20 at 1:53 pm

Buy low rise in the urban centres? Garth not everyone has $2 million for a tiny shack in GTA.

The reference was to low-rise condos. – Garth

#17 Oakville Rocks! on 08.09.20 at 1:53 pm

What would a financial transaction tax look like?

And, where are you getting this from Garth? I have not read anything about such a tax.

#18 Bonobo on 08.09.20 at 1:55 pm

Biden a centrist. That’s a good one. He’s been taken over by BernyBros and AOC. Trump will win on November 3rd.

#19 SoggyShorts on 08.09.20 at 1:56 pm

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.20 at 12:53 pm
Garth, over the years you have consistently recommended to small business owners to avoid taking dividends and take any business profits as salary or as a bonus income.
Why would a small business owner increase their annual income via bonuses ( thus moving into a higher tax bracket) when they can pay themselves dividends at a lower tax rate OR leave the money in the small business to take at a later date? ( when your annual income or salary drops due to retirement).

*************************
Because this government is spending out of control and will need money eventually. They already took a swing at small businesses once, and will likely do so again.

You may end up forced to take money out of your corp at a much much higher rate in the future.

Using this https://simpletax.ca/calculator
100K withdrawals:
If you dividend out 100K you are paying $16.5K in tax
vs
If you paid yourself 100K salary minus 18K RRSP and minus the 11K small business write-off then the government gets $11,500 (and you get a max CPP year)

50K withdrawals:
If you dividend out 50k you are paying $4.5K in tax
vs
If you paid yourself 50K salary minus 9K RRSP and minus the 5.5K small business write-off then the government gets $4,500 (and you get a solid CPP year)

Eventually, you do have to drain that RRSP though so there is some more tax to be paid later in the salary scenarios.

Really, I don’t see any advantage in paying yourself dividends, and I actually think I’ve made a mistake in doing so.

#20 BC Doc on 08.09.20 at 1:57 pm

“The year so far has been a complete validation of investing in a balanced and diversified fashion. When the market crashed in March, equity losses were tempered by bond gains.”

Hi Garth,
Bonds were hammered too— no zigging when stocks zagged, both went down. VAB-T and VSB-T failed me when stocks were getting pummelled…. The smart guys I listened to on Bloomberg said it likely represented lack of liquidity on the bond side, concerns over credit quality, and mis-pricing in the bond market (no spot exchange). The Fed fixed the rout by buying up fixed income.

BC Doc

#21 Joe on 08.09.20 at 1:57 pm

Garth! Who’s building low rise condos in GTA??? I think there may be a couple near sheppard and Bathurst due to downsview airport close by. Otherwise maybe in Barrie I think there’s low rise.

#22 jess on 08.09.20 at 2:01 pm

portland housing history
gentrification

https://www.tvo.org/video/documentaries/priced-out

#23 Midwestern Fan on 08.09.20 at 2:02 pm

Long time reader, first post. Steerage requests Oxford comma.

“And Covid? Almost 20 million cases across the world, big troubles for America and Canadians have been told to mask up for a second wave.”

#24 Millennial Realist on 08.09.20 at 2:05 pm

“….maybe even a financial transaction tax…”

Glad to see you’re coming around, Garth :)

Transactional taxes make enormous good sense. Much fairer, and less government needed to administer.

Everyone should support this. One of your regular posters here, Brian R has spoken of this.

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/apt

Comments from Brian or others?

#25 SoggyShorts on 08.09.20 at 2:06 pm

#19 SoggyShorts on 08.09.20 at 1:56 pm
#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.20 at 12:53 pm

EDIT: Retaining the money in your corp is better than salary if you plan to take minimal amounts out in retirement like ~25K where you pay 300 tax vs 3,000 if you took 2500 salary

FOR NOW. Rules could change.

#26 Specuskeptic on 08.09.20 at 2:15 pm

“I would say that it is safe to assume that it could be between 30 per cent of the population that acquire COVID-19 and 70 per cent of the population.”

Officials across the world were saying this (or similar) at the time in the context of persuading citizens that mitigation efforts are urgent and necessary. Many in the science/reality-based community anticipated the reaction you seem to have wherein, after measures work, folks hostile to those measures respond, “See? They ruined the economy for no reason.”

New Zealand is a wonderful study where the intensity of the bitching and moaning was high, but the results are impossible to argue with: 100 days without a positive test and normalcy to the extant that it can exist. Yes – I get it – fairly isolated island nation, small population, etc. etc. but it illustrates my point.

Science makes predictions and its conclusions change with new data. It’s not like politics where if a position changes, it’s “flip flopping” or “hypocrisy”.

So, in answer to your question, “Was that totally irresponsible? Or just uninformed?”, it was uninformed – but without the judgements that tend to go with that.

#27 SoggyShorts on 08.09.20 at 2:23 pm

#20 BC Doc on 08.09.20 at 1:57 pm
Hi Garth,
Bonds were hammered too— no zigging when stocks zagged, both went down.

***********************
US 7-10y Treasury bonds did significantly better
https://tinyurl.com/y4vxmsfc

The more I learn the fewer things I like about investing in Maple…

#28 Deplorable Dude on 08.09.20 at 2:28 pm

Just to point out Canada has 120,000 confirmed cases. Epidemiologists generally assume confirmed cases are a gross undercount of actual infections. E.g off by a factor of 8.

As example this Epidemiologist estimates upto 20% of Florida may have been infected.

Also interesting observations that herd immunity maybe around 20%.

Also with that many infections the IFR (infection fatality ratio) is getting awfully close to that of Flu, although if course it is way more infectious.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860659118804992?s=21

#29 Stone on 08.09.20 at 2:34 pm

#15 conan on 08.09.20 at 1:23 pm
I do not think we would have gone into total economic lock down for a .03 infection rate. I believer the other theory. 20 % plus had Covid when we we went into shut down. And that is why they did it.

———

I agree with your hypothesis, conan.

And for Garth. You mentioned Patty Hajdu. I think that was brilliant of her. In this world of oversaturated media and most everyone having the attention span of a fruit fly or goldfish, her message punched through and got everyone’s attention. Maybe it’s because of her that we don’t look like the U.S. of A.

Case in point: You’re still talking about Patty Hajdu and it’s August. Irony?

I had to Google ‘health minister’ to recall her name. Yup. Ironic. – Garth

#30 VicPaul on 08.09.20 at 2:37 pm

#81 Sail Away on 08.09.20 at 11:36 am
#77 VicPaul on 08.09.20 at 11:12 am

I’m waiting for the teachers in BC to walk out due to “Covid Class Size”

They are kicking around 15 students max in the classroom for social distancing.

—————

Or we could do as Sweden did and just let the kids go to school normally.

Weird how none of the Swedish kids died and, actually, nobody in Sweden is dying from Covid anymore.

But that would involve applied logic.

*********

You attributed Crowd’s comment to me – read more carefully, smart guy.

M56BC

#31 kingston boy on 08.09.20 at 2:39 pm

@#21 Joe on 08.09.20 at 1:57 pm
Garth! Who’s building low rise condos in GTA??? I think there may be a couple near sheppard and Bathurst due to downsview airport close by. Otherwise maybe in Barrie I think there’s low rise.
————————————————

tons of lowrise going up in the west end Toronto.
between humber/kipling – queensway/burnhamthorpe

#32 Stone on 08.09.20 at 2:50 pm

#29 Stone on 08.09.20 at 2:34 pm
#15 conan on 08.09.20 at 1:23 pm
I do not think we would have gone into total economic lock down for a .03 infection rate. I believer the other theory. 20 % plus had Covid when we we went into shut down. And that is why they did it.

———

I agree with your hypothesis, conan.

And for Garth. You mentioned Patty Hajdu. I think that was brilliant of her. In this world of oversaturated media and most everyone having the attention span of a fruit fly or goldfish, her message punched through and got everyone’s attention. Maybe it’s because of her that we don’t look like the U.S. of A.

Case in point: You’re still talking about Patty Hajdu and it’s August. Irony?

I had to Google ‘health minister’ to recall her name. Yup. Ironic. – Garth

———

Irrelevant. It’s not her name that matters. It’s what she did and that’s what stuck with you. I still think it was brilliant.

In the private sector she would be toast for such a basic miscalculation. – Garth

#33 Captain Uppa on 08.09.20 at 2:51 pm

I am not sure about the return of city centres, at least not to pre-Covid levels.

Companies are realizing that they can save a ton of money and maintain a business status quo without big crammed towers.

I was listening to the head of Red Fin real estate in the US state they are not likely to renew the lease on their downtown Seattle office building.

In New York, Governor Cuomo is begging Manhattanites to come back because of lost revenue. No dice as the big city exodus was happening in the US well before Covid.

#34 Dave on 08.09.20 at 2:59 pm

When is the mortgage deferral cliff???? Sept or December??

#35 joblo on 08.09.20 at 3:06 pm

“federal health minister Patty Hajdu (remember her?) had this terrifying statement:”

“I would say that it is safe to assume that it could be between 30 per cent of the population that acquire COVID-19 and 70 per cent of the population.”

Does Patti Hairdo go to Terroresa Tam for Graphic Design advise?

#36 SoggyShorts on 08.09.20 at 3:14 pm

#24 Millennial Realist on 08.09.20 at 2:05 pm
“….maybe even a financial transaction tax…”
Glad to see you’re coming around, Garth :)
Transactional taxes make enormous good sense. Much fairer, and less government needed to administer.
Everyone should support this. One of your regular posters here, Brian R has spoken of this.
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/apt
Comments from Brian or others?

************************
How would that impact trading? I imagine HFT would be impossible which might level the playing field a bit, but everything else would get hit too, and even a small fee makes buying or selling stocks expensive.

#37 Dolce Vita on 08.09.20 at 3:19 pm

“There will be a vaccine. Or at least a good treatment. It will change everything overnight.”

I’ll take both.

Suspect only the latter will be true.

Just like AIDS, no vaccine, but a good treatment changed everything AND it did (the AIDS cocktail).

#38 blenzguy on 08.09.20 at 3:20 pm

The worldwide response to the pandemic is not an over reaction by our politicians and health officials but an intentional criminal act . …the collateral damage that has already been done will seem insignificant to what is coming …it’s amazing how the serb payments have turned us all into complacent sheep …this is not going to end well !https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbEHEzEEHJ8

#39 Stone on 08.09.20 at 3:22 pm

#32 Stone on 08.09.20 at 2:50 pm
#29 Stone on 08.09.20 at 2:34 pm
#15 conan on 08.09.20 at 1:23 pm
I do not think we would have gone into total economic lock down for a .03 infection rate. I believer the other theory. 20 % plus had Covid when we we went into shut down. And that is why they did it.

———

I agree with your hypothesis, conan.

And for Garth. You mentioned Patty Hajdu. I think that was brilliant of her. In this world of oversaturated media and most everyone having the attention span of a fruit fly or goldfish, her message punched through and got everyone’s attention. Maybe it’s because of her that we don’t look like the U.S. of A.

Case in point: You’re still talking about Patty Hajdu and it’s August. Irony?

I had to Google ‘health minister’ to recall her name. Yup. Ironic. – Garth

———

Irrelevant. It’s not her name that matters. It’s what she did and that’s what stuck with you. I still think it was brilliant.

In the private sector she would be toast for such a basic miscalculation. – Garth

———

A related private sector example would be nice. Dr. Google doesn’t seem to provide one.

#40 The Woosh on 08.09.20 at 3:25 pm

#32 Stone on 08.09.20 at 2:50 pm
#29 Stone on 08.09.20 at 2:34 pm
#15 conan on 08.09.20 at 1:23 pm
I do not think we would have gone into total economic lock down for a .03 infection rate. I believer the other theory. 20 % plus had Covid when we we went into shut down. And that is why they did it.

———

I agree with your hypothesis, conan.

And for Garth. You mentioned Patty Hajdu. I think that was brilliant of her. In this world of oversaturated media and most everyone having the attention span of a fruit fly or goldfish, her message punched through and got everyone’s attention. Maybe it’s because of her that we don’t look like the U.S. of A.

Case in point: You’re still talking about Patty Hajdu and it’s August. Irony?

I had to Google ‘health minister’ to recall her name. Yup. Ironic. – Garth

———

Irrelevant. It’s not her name that matters. It’s what she did and that’s what stuck with you. I still think it was brilliant.

In the private sector she would be toast for such a basic miscalculation. – Garth

—————————————————

More likely promoted!!! Come on Garth…since when is incompetence in the private sector punished. Hide it all away with a promotion.

#41 Sail Away on 08.09.20 at 3:38 pm

#77 VicPaul on 08.09.20 at 11:12 am

You attributed Crowd’s comment to me – read more carefully, smart guy.

M56BC

——————

Whoops

#42 will on 08.09.20 at 3:41 pm

re: patty hajdu

well maybe she’s right. maybe 30-70% have the virus already. i’ve probably got it. it’s just that there are no symptoms, no problem. why would anyone want to get tested if they have no symptoms, no ill feeling whatsoever, and feel as healthy and normal as ever? i think all people carry viruses all of the time. but you’d never know it.

The issue is not the virus. The response to it. Proportionate and responsible, hysterical and extreme – or just right? – Garth

#43 I Love Volatility on 08.09.20 at 3:47 pm

Tough economic times have been a good time to “climb the property ladder”! Picked up our forever home/property after it was listed for 2.3 million in Feb 2020. Thanks to COVID it was “vulched” in July for 1.9! Great time to trade up if you don’t mind taking some risk! I figure with a light kitchen Reno and $7K of fresh paint it will be worth 2.1 in no time however planning to stay there for the next 30 plus years. 2008 was the last time we moved. Thanks volatility!!

#44 Steven Nicolle on 08.09.20 at 3:51 pm

A hopeful post. We have good numbers and low infection rates because we locked down. Not because of the mildness of the virus. It’s because of that we are able to open up safely. Unlike the U.S. That ‘s like saying the reason we have more infections is because we do more testing! Listen I think Americans are stupid and will vote Trump again. Then watch the riots when that happens. It will be epic!

#45 VicPaul on 08.09.20 at 3:51 pm

#79 VicPaul on 08.09.20 at 11:12 am
#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.08.20 at 6:26 pm
@#32 MF.

I’m waiting for the teachers in BC to walk out due to “Covid Class Size”
They are kicking around 15 students max in the classroom for social distancing.
“Hire hundreds of more teachers” ( From where is anyone’s guess…)….Cost? Several hundred million $$$$

*********

Yes, fair comment/concern…and even if we spent 60 million on 1000 new teachers, or 300 million on 5000 new teachers, where would we put them? Schools are crowded as it is…there are no “extra” classrooms just sitting empty. Outdoor classrooms – yeah, like there aren’t enough ways/reasons for kids to be off-task, without the wind/sun/shadow/cold/heat/rain and other sensory distractions bothering a six year old practicing their decoding strategies.

So, what’s the answer for sixty+ y/o teachers who are in a higher risk category and are fearful of return?

Retire.

Why not encourage older teachers to retire and fortify the T.O.C list (teacher on call) with experienced mentors to substitute, and give thousands of young teachers full-time, career-building placements so they can hone their craft and begin funding their new families, becoming the next waves of consumers to drive our product/service economy. Out with a bunch of oldies making 80+k/yr, in with a bunch of young, vibrant, enthusiastic professionals pulling down 60+k… easier on government coffers.

I would volunteer…with some incentive.

M56BC

*********

For your edification, Sails.

M56BC

#46 KNOW IT ALL on 08.09.20 at 3:57 pm

There is long list of diseases with NO cure:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incurable_diseases#:~:text=HIV%2FAIDS%20%E2%80%93%20No%20cure%20exists,this%20(physical)neurological%20disorder.

Hope cures nothing. Market assumptions based off of false hopes sooner or later creates both gains and LOSSES of epic proportions.

Cash-out while your still ahead.

#47 Lee on 08.09.20 at 4:06 pm

Trump is nowhere close to finished. In fact at this point I’d say he’s a lock to win at least 304 again. Maybe no more, but at least 304.

You might wish to read this before posting again. – Garth

#48 willworkforpickles on 08.09.20 at 4:09 pm

So – this Fall…Covid virus cases are expected to spike in the U.S. and to minimize in Canada. The borders are expected to remain closed. So good. Henceforth, mortgage deferrals should likewise be ended and of those swimming naked we may soon see.
All in all – a mini bubble of its own now forms through a growing ponderance of investor anticipation waiting for the trigger for real estate prices to correct.
Investors in wait of the kind with money to invest but not of the greater fool variety. Always making their way buying low. In this case, purchasing real estate at lower/much lower than today’s over inflated prices. These are experienced investors who know nothing goes up forever without there being a correction or series of corrections at some point. All it takes is a catalyst to set it off.
Could it be the end of mortgage deferrals for a country soon to be considered clear/clear enough of the covid-19 woods?
Ideally so.
Under a sane system it would make perfect sense.
…but lies greed and stupidity are the trump cards in today’s game standing like a wall that badly needs knocking over.

#49 the Jaguar on 08.09.20 at 4:12 pm

I am very grateful for the distraction the political theatre south of our border has offered during the painful confinement we have been forced to endure during lockdown. It helps take my mind off the complete nonsense of it all ( our government’s over reaction), as well as the devastating impact it will have on our economy and many innocent lives. Those lives will include many who never come into contact with the virus.

I won’t mention ‘He who cannot be named’ to avoid the usual TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome). Oooops, I did it again. Cue the Brittany Spears number one hit. Seriously though, can it get more fun than Kanye West announcing he will run for President? Talk about the Art of the Deal! This is more fun than a barrel of monkeys! Or maybe more like a political version of the shower scene in Psycho, but you’ll have to be on your toes to figure out who is in the shower. Here’s a hint: watch this clip of the ‘Centrist’ beaking off about what a chicken hawk he is….oh me! Rule one in politics: always watch what you say, especially if you feel you are ‘among friends’ and can do otherwise. Even Obama, who was all style and no substance wouldn’t have made a mistake like that. Well, maybe he did once when he referred to his grandmother thusly ‘ She is a typical white person’.

The next few weeks will be very entertaining. Unless I miss my guess the eggs that have been under very close guard are about to be hatched, and no one will care that the World Series may not be played this fall. All eyes will be on the drama unfolding in the land of American Exceptionalism.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXA–dj2-CY

#50 devore on 08.09.20 at 4:20 pm

The problem with Biden is that nobody’s voting for Biden. Shortly after he takes office, he will step down for health reasons, so it doesn’t matter how centrist he is.

Is Biden too ill to hold office? Link? – Garth

#51 CEW9 on 08.09.20 at 4:24 pm

#24 Millennial Realist on 08.09.20 at 2:05 pm

“….maybe even a financial transaction tax…”

Glad to see you’re coming around, Garth :)

Transactional taxes make enormous good sense. Much fairer, and less government needed to administer.

Everyone should support this. One of your regular posters here, Brian R has spoken of this.

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/apt

Comments from Brian or others?

———————————————–

My only comment is this:

If you think this will ‘replace’ any other income, sales or value-added tax, you are kidding yourself. It will be tax upon tax upon tax. They know no other way.

If we could write it into the Canadian Constitution, I would gladly trade a large sales tax in return for a guaranteed zero percent income tax in perpetuity.

This will never happen. What will happen is governments will continue to chip away at our hard earned money, ad infinitum & ad nauseam.

#52 mike from mtl on 08.09.20 at 4:24 pm

Small word of advice, NEVER purchase or rent a low-rise that is made from wood construction. The isolation are always terrible and you’ll be enjoying your neighbours’ sounds and smells!

SFD is okay if you’re the only occupants but duplex/triplex/MDU just no. Cement high-rise generally are much more tolerable – plus being high up there’s no street noise. With less ‘co-owners’ good luck with strata fees and insurance claims.

Why in North America we stick with wood, even in MDU is so stupid.

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.20 at 4:35 pm

@#25 Soggy
“Retaining the money in your corp is better than salary if you plan to take minimal amounts out in retirement like ~25K where you pay 300 tax vs 3,000 if you took 2500 salary

FOR NOW. Rules could change.”

++++

Thanks for the info.
My salary + bonus are in the 6 figures and then I look at taking dividends from the company on top of that ……. ugh…..bumps me into an obscene tax bracket.

But if I take it as an even larger cash bonus …. I cringe at the taxes I would paying.
That being said.
I dont mind paying my fair share in taxes but then to watch the govt urinate it against the wall…….. kinda hard to take.

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.20 at 4:36 pm

@#41 Sail Away

I have that effect on people.

#55 Jay Currie on 08.09.20 at 4:40 pm

I pay some attention to US politics and Biden is fading. He was a pretty lame candidate to begin with but between the riots – which he has not condemned – the unpopularity of lockdowns and mandatory masks, Pelosi’s holding unemployment benefits hostage until Trump made his Executive Order unfreezing them, the Democrats and Biden are not gaining traction. The enthusiasm chasm is getting deeper.

Covid is fading and it is not obvious that there will be an electorally significant second wave. The US economy is bouncing back. By the time people are really paying attention, after Labour Day, there should be more optimism in the swing states.

There will also be a good deal of bewildered anger at Governors and mayors who let Antifa and BLM run riot. Those Governors and mayors are all Democrats and Antifa and BLM can be and are seen as the shock troops of the Democratic Party.

Biden is looking and sounding old. Not good for a Presidential candidate. I would hedge against a Biden “victory”.

What polls reflect this? – Garth

#56 Buck Turgeson on 08.09.20 at 4:51 pm

I’m with Millenial Realist on this one . Transaction tax would be a sound way to go .

Are you aware it could extend to you – on every investment or TFSA/RRSP transaction? – Garth

#57 gary on 08.09.20 at 4:53 pm

What did Garth say earlier about Employment Insurance recipients being reported on their Credit Reports/Scores?

I don’t think EI shows up on your credit?

#58 MF on 08.09.20 at 5:00 pm

“ In the private sector she would be toast for such a basic miscalculation. – Garth”

I have to disagree with this.

On 2008, the main car companies were ran into the ground by poor management and what happened? Bonuses and raises. They were called “golden parachutes” if I remember correctly.

This is just one example of many.

She did good. Like you’ve said many times, we’ll know if this was all worth it in time. That time hasn’t come yet. Too premature. But so far it’s looking good.

MF

She ‘did good’ by making a groundless statement, stating hypothesis as fact and engendering an environment of fear? We now know it was in error. How is this ‘doing good’ for a public official? – Garth

#59 Grunt on 08.09.20 at 5:05 pm

Time to oust the monarchy in Canada. And I don’t mean specifically the royals.

Time to get rid of the GG and a dozen? LGs flushing taxpayer money.
And I don’t believe the waffle from the constitutional lawyers. It can be done.

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.09.20 at 5:06 pm

Went grocery shopping with my partner.
Stayed outside, no use both of us getting infected.
Bored, so started counting masks.
Results:
Women shoppers: 90% mask positive.
Beer bellied, F-150 driving white males: 10% mask positive.
Conclusion: White male Canadians and Americans are going the way of the Dinos.
Suggestion: Don’t be a Dino. Wear a mask!

#61 devore on 08.09.20 at 5:07 pm

#14 forgotmyusername

I think Garth tends to dismiss things Trump too easily and glibly. Like his recent dismissal of the efforts to enforce section 203 (or is it 302? Can’t look things up easily right now…) saying Trump is after tik tok. It’s been clear for years to pretty much all informed observers that a test of these protections would come sooner or later, we’re just waiting for a suitable case. Social media platforms have been very censorious for a long time, picking content, selecting content to promote and selecting content to suppress. They are now even outright editorializing content! This is significantly outside the rules for platform protections, these companies are publishers, not platforms, and don’t deserve these protections. They can pick and choose the content they PUBLISH, and open themselves to being sued like a book publisher or a newspaper, or they can act like a platform and let users post legal content.

Don’t use TikTok much, do you? – Garth

#62 Yuus bin Haad on 08.09.20 at 5:07 pm

Trump is done. This time for sure?

#63 april on 08.09.20 at 5:09 pm

#44 – We know people who live in high-rises and they can hear their neighbors all around them – each side… above and below…. no guarantee you won’t be subjected to your neighbors noises no matter what condo building you live in. Condo living is restrictive and depressing but most have to make do with it if they can’t afford a house.

#64 Cristian on 08.09.20 at 5:12 pm

“had this terrifying statement:

“I would say that it is safe to assume that it could be between 30 per cent of the population that acquire COVID-19 and 70 per cent of the population.”

Was that totally irresponsible? Or just uninformed?”

Neither. In healthcare we are trained to prepare for the worst first. And hope for the better, second.
This is a new disease, about there was no information really at the time other than it seemed to spread silently and rapidly, so this was actually a responsible statement from a strictly medical perspective. And she said “assume”.
Lots of things have changed since then, there is new information, medical information and knowledge is fluid and it adjusts permanently. What seemed then irresponsible to you was based on the facts available at the time.
So don’t rush to judge if you’re not a trained medical professional.

Actually she is a cabinet minister, speaking on behalf of the government. No responsible public official should make this kind of statement based on vapours. It was extreme, but served well to facilitate an economic shutdown. – Garth

#65 Figmund Sreud on 08.09.20 at 5:20 pm

And Covid? Almost 20 million cases across the world, big troubles for America and Canadians have been told to mask up for a second wave. Maybe.
________________________________

Well, Covid, … or more correctly, SARS-CoV-2!

I, for one, have no idea about machinations with this pesky bug. But one of my cyber-acquaintances has an interesting observation (… him, and his two children, all three a front-line docs, in Texas – him in Austin, kids in Houston). His recent message – Aug. 8 – to his friends reads as follows, I quote:

“I am seeing more patients with ongoing, persistent symptoms, especially fatigue, shortness of breath nd muscle aches, after “recovering” from novel-coronavirus infections. Te best I can tell, we have no way to ascertain if there are low level, persistent infections causing this. Most viral infected cells in hman bodies present a membrane-protein marker, which T-cells in the immune system recognize, and target, to destroy the cells making virus. Like HIV, SARS-CoV-2 has a special feature to block the production of the marker protein. The cells producing viral particles are stealthy, hidden. We know that HIV produces chronic infection, which can be treated, after hundreds of billions of dollars and 35 years of research, but not eradicated. Where are we on what timeline with this virus?” FWIW.

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#66 MF on 08.09.20 at 5:23 pm

She ‘did good’ by making a groundless statement, stating hypothesis as fact and engendering an environment of fear? We now know it was in error. How is this ‘doing good’ for a public official

-Because the results are positive, so far. Again it’s too early to judge but this is fact.

There is a chance that if she hadn’t said that statement, no one would taken any of this seriously, the infection rate would have been much higher, the economy would have been hit harder, and we would be even more in the hole with a harder chance of coming out. Yes the infection rate might have hit 30%. It’s an unknown. To assume that percentage was far fetched after everything was done to prevent it from happening downplays all the effort.

Also, she isn’t an infectious disease expert herself. She gets her information from the experts. At the time, since this is a novel virus, nobody knew what we were dealing with. It’s always easy to look back at history and see who made wrong statements with 2020 vision. In 1950 smoking was healthy. In 2020 it’s not. Science takes time to work.

MF

Last comment: it is not the job of leaders to scare, exaggerate or mold public opinion by treating people as infants. It is a leader’s job to inform – fully, quickly and with transparency. Otherwise, trust is gone. Ms. Hadju is unlikely to be trusted again. – Garth

#67 Marie on 08.09.20 at 5:26 pm

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Aggregate_polls

Not even 1 polled had the orange Julius leading, not even 1

#68 Dolce Vita on 08.09.20 at 5:30 pm

Personal favorite Hajdu moments [some, there are many]. Have been following her since February 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic:

Mar 5, 2020

“Our health systems are prepared”

https://twitter.com/PattyHajdu/status/1235380553333030912

Mar 17, 2020

According to Perrin Beatty, your health systems are not prepared Patty.

https://twitter.com/PerrinBeatty/status/1239902239805841410

Mar 27, 2020

…10 days later, Red Deer Brewery to the rescue of Hajdu, Beatty & Canada [Alberta High Tech in the photo]

https://twitter.com/ctvedmonton/status/1243336652778594313

———————

Mar 13, 2020

“We’re asking Canadians to practice social distancing…”

https://twitter.com/PattyHajdu/status/1238587837676687360

AND the day before [or Patty demonstrates how to infect the ENTIRE Public Health Agency of Canada]:

https://twitter.com/PattyHajdu/status/1238202651134828544

———————

…ya, I could go on.

Told you Canada:

1. Your lucky that geographically your ‘outta the way like Antarctica out of the way.

2. Lucky for you, no one in their right mind would travel to visit you in January, February, March, April… (unlike Italia that got 1/4 of all Chinese tourists in January during their Lunar New Year…1/4 of 7 million international trips).

3. Best thing you did do, was to close your borders to you know who (late to the table on that, Mar. 21 closure).

= BLIND.DUMB.LUCK

Glad for it Canada!

Who cares how you got there, you got there.

#69 Buck Turgeson on 08.09.20 at 5:30 pm

Re #44 and #63 …. I live in the heart of a busy centre in a nice condo . It’s a beautiful thing . Clean , quiet , owners only . That’s the secret , renters don’t give a s*** about the property. I created my garden area deck and spend many relaxing hours out there. No idiot neighbours which can certainly happen in ANY property you get into . Quit dissing condo life , I’m here to tell you it is so much better than some of you think . By the way hi to Flop from former yvrmc …

#70 Figmund Sreud on 08.09.20 at 5:54 pm

A plug for a tiny company called E25Bio, … and one more for one called Sherlock Biosciences! Enjoy, …

Failing the Coronavirus-Testing Test
https://harvardmagazine.com/2020/08/covid-19-test-for-public-health

Short snip:

“Current tests for active infection with SARS-CoV-2 are highly sensitive—but most are given to suspected COVID-19 patients long after the infected person has stopped transmitting the virus to others. That means the results are virtually useless for public-health efforts to contain the raging pandemic.”

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#71 Dirty Dan on 08.09.20 at 6:03 pm

#44 Steven Nicolle on 08.09.20 at 3:51 pm
Listen I think Americans are stupid and will vote Trump again. Then watch the riots when that happens. It will be epic!

+-+

Wait, why would the violent right wingers riot if their leader Trump is elected? Can someone please explain? :)

#72 Dolce Vita on 08.09.20 at 6:05 pm

Europe in last 2 weeks, not so good with that damn virus.

Italia, former COVID-19 Pariah, now surrounded by Typhoid Mary neighbors.

Graphic in Italian for European new cases* (last 2 weeks when things started to go awry):

Bar Chart on Left = Total New Cases last 14 days.
Map on Right = New Cases per 100,000 by country, last 14 days.

*for numbers in the thousands, they use a . when we use a , and vice versa.

https://i.imgur.com/ZltZ8St.jpg

…why I will not travel outside of the Italian border AND I am itching for a London trip to keep my English alive, but alas. They are issuing travel advisories, quarantine after coming home for France, Spain and Germany (and not Italia)…they should do a travel advisory on themselves instead.

—————————

PS:

Not only is Sweden a COVID-19 economic miracle (-8.6% GDP, their worst Qtr in 40 years or more…they are doing “less bad” than others, Que?) but also health wise, they are doing very well when compared to their neighbors Norway and Finland, ah not.

#73 Flop... on 08.09.20 at 6:08 pm

Buck Turgeson on 08.09.20 at 5:30 pm

“Quit dissing condo life , I’m here to tell you it is so much better than some of you think . By the way hi to Flop from former yvrmc …”

//////////////////

Hey Bucky (North Shore), I’m glad the next chapter appears to be going good.

Happy for ya brother.

Don’t know why, but seeing your post reminded me to follow up on another guy I used to swap information with.

Smartalox, you’re probably aware, but did you know that house in Edmonton you were asking me for a basic estimation to finish off is already off the market, possibly sold.

https://www.zolo.ca/edmonton-real-estate/447-wilkin-way-north-west

Question for the Edmonton people on the blog, how do you guys get sold prices in real time?

Is it possible to see what this house sold for?

O.k, last but not least, LP, I saw this morning that you posted that your mother died recently.

Was she in her late 90’s?

In Australia we say, that is a good innings.

May she have lived a full life…

M46BC

#74 NfwMF on 08.09.20 at 6:12 pm

#66 MF on 08.09.20 at 5:23 pm
Because the results are positive, so far…this is a fact.
***********
This is not a fact for the millions of unemployed.

————————
There is a chance that if she hadn’t said that statement, no one would taken any of this seriously.
************
You seem to imply that there was a need for everybody to take her seriously. Most did and that was clearly a mistake.

————————
In 1950 smoking was healthy. In 2020 it’s not. Science takes time to work.
************
The 1950’s belief that smoking was healthy was based on marketing lies not science. Just like today’s virus marketing. No need for 70 years to see she was wrong. Only took a few weeks.

#75 kommykim on 08.09.20 at 6:12 pm

RE: #20 BC Doc on 08.09.20 at 1:57 pm
Bonds were hammered too— no zigging when stocks zagged, both went down. VAB-T and VSB-T failed me when stocks were getting pummelled….

========================================

Yea, there was some illiquidity going on in the bond market at that time which caused bond ETFs to have very large tracking errors. At least as an ETF holder you still had the opportunity to trade vs an actual bond holder, though at a significant loss. The way I looked at it was, “My bond ETF may be 4% lower than it should be, but those juicy equities are down 30%” so I rebalanced anyway.

#76 n1tro on 08.09.20 at 6:18 pm

My marketing professor back in grad school use to say that anyone quoting you rounded figures is making stuff up and full of it because it is rare that any calculations comes out even.

“I would say that it is safe to assume that it could be between 30 per cent of the population that acquire COVID-19 and 70 per cent of the population.” – Patty Hajdu

Patty, my rear admiral turned professor of marketing is saying you are full of it. Please peddle your fake news elsewhere.

#77 Figmund Sreud on 08.09.20 at 6:19 pm

So how do you like 2020 so far?
____________________________

Well, … “Another One Bites the Dust” – Queen, 1980

Anyway, … mostly unnoticed:

Canada’s last fully intact Arctic ice shelf collapses

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-canada-idUSKCN2523JH

(Reuters) – The last fully intact ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic has collapsed, losing more than 40% of its area in just two days at the end of July, researchers said on Thursday.

The Milne Ice Shelf is at the fringe of Ellesmere Island, in the sparsely populated northern Canadian territory of Nunavut. …

F.S.

#78 Montana Bob on 08.09.20 at 6:20 pm

Regarding mortgage deferrals: I don’t believe there will be mortgage deferral cliff. Reason behind it is that banks could extend it for another 6 months, without any problem (like they did in Australia). Also, if assumed cliff will be after several months (to a year), people will accumulate some money in the meantime, for a buffer. Thus, nothing will go fast.
Patience is still virtue.
So, let’s say, year and a half from September ? Then the party could start.
We will see.
Cheers

#79 cuke and tomato picker on 08.09.20 at 6:20 pm

We are fortunate to live in Canada because so far we are doing just fine and in time all will be well.Living the
charmed life in Victoria BC today the weather was perfect.

#80 SoggyShorts on 08.09.20 at 6:21 pm

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.20 at 4:35 pm
@#25 Soggy

Thanks for the info.
My salary + bonus are in the 6 figures and then I look at taking dividends from the company on top of that ……. ugh…..bumps me into an obscene tax bracket.

****************
Yeah, higher up it’s pretty much the same story
$150K salary + 50K dividends = 57.5K tax(including 16.5k corp)
$200K salary = 55K tax

Much higher:
400K salary $147K tax
200K + 200K = $136K tax + 22K at the corp level
= $158K tax

Salary is better in each case, unless it’s about a much lower income in retirement or to smooth out some crazy income swings.
—————–
Personally, the wife and I can live very happily on under 60K per year, so we’ll pay ourselves dividends and pay 3% in taxes(plus the 11% we already paid at the corp level). Less actually, since it’ll be a blend of cap gains, eligible dividends, tfsa, and ineligible dividends.

#81 Dirty Dan on 08.09.20 at 6:22 pm

DELETED

#82 Flop... on 08.09.20 at 6:29 pm

Smartie, I think that house sold for 713k.

https://www.honestdoor.com/property/447-wilkin-way-nw-edmonton-ab

Asking 699k

Assessment 794k

HonestDoor price 837k

How honest is HonestDoor…

M46BC

#83 Canadarm 2 on 08.09.20 at 6:46 pm

Unless WFH is a new bragging point for corporate owner types, don’t be surprised if returns to office spaces become normalized again. As Garth often points out, humans are emotionally driven creatures and IMHO, Covid has changed nothing about this, nor would ANYTHING. Pandemics, world wars, recessions…society moves forward.

Corporate 1: So, where are your offices now?
Corporate 2: Everywhere! Everyone works from home!
Corporate 1: So, where do we meet for the new product launch?
Corporate 2: Zoom!
Corporate 1: Oh, So no need for fancy jets, yachts, hotel rentals to host meetings? We just…stay home?
Corporate 2: Ummm….(thinks for a second)…frak that!! SEE YOU IN VEGAS BABY!!!!

I submit that there indeed will be ASPECTS of business that will benefit from certain groups/depts of employees staying home, but in the long term, the deep seeded, instinctual need to socialize and show off will prevail. Towers weren’t built for efficiency. They are a show of power, vanity and pursuit of immortality. The most ordinary folk can hope for are tombstones as a marker for their existence on this planet- the Uber-rich build towers.

#84 Dolce Vita on 08.09.20 at 6:47 pm

#65 Figmund Sreud

On the “short snip”, so true.

My Berkeley Virologist Prof Twitter buddy, also Max Planck, says the same thing.

She doubts there will be an effective vaccine per the “short snip”, same words and months ago before that article. She agrees with me that it will take a treatment like they have for HIV, a drug cocktail or the like to keep it in check.

Thus, probably no vaccine any time soon but a treatment MOST LIKELY but timing, again. Took them 35 years to nip HIV in the bud, thus, they are not going to do THE SAME overnight for COVID-19.

Just like Moderna’s been trying for a SARS vaccine for the past 15 years or so and NADA.

There will be NO VACCINE miracles people no matter how much money they throw at the problem. Still I am hopeful but if I were World Gov’s I’d throw money at a TREATMENT instead.

Learn to live with it with some dignity intact.

Relying on a magical 100% “gone, gone” vaccine is not only mythical it is FOOLHARDY when making even a cursory review of the information out there.

#85 Howard on 08.09.20 at 6:48 pm

As for real estate, don’t fall for the run-to-the-burbs meme. It’s temporary. Downtowns will repopulate in time. People will commute again and want urban locations. Condos will take longer to recover in proportion to height, so buy low-rise. Lock in your mortgage – five years at under 2%. It’s a once-in-a-lifetime gift. And wait to purchase (if you can truly afford it) until the mortgage deferral cliff arrives.

——————————

You said, many times, that downtown highrises were dead and that the suburbs were coming back. Now you’re saying the exact opposite.

Read my words. Changes are relative not absolute, unlike in our world. – Garth

#86 KAC on 08.09.20 at 6:49 pm

Lots of references to the US Presidential polls today.

Some of us seem to have short memories, here’s a headline from immediately prior to Trump’s Electoral College landslide victory.

Survey finds Hillary Clinton has ‘more than 99% chance’ of winning election over Donald Trump.
The Princeton Election Consortium found Ms Clinton has a projected 312 electoral votes across the country and only 270 are needed to win.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html

#87 Howard on 08.09.20 at 6:51 pm

#13 Indigirl on 08.09.20 at 1:07 pm
You are right about downtowns repopulating. Suburbs look great and are comfortable now because so much downtown is still shut down: no live theatre, no sports, no concerts, no symphony, etc. Once those all resume people will remember why they want to work and live downtown.

————————————–

Not with crime in the city exploding the way it is. Look up Toronto’s crime stats for 2020 versus the past 10 years. It’s pretty shocking.

You don’t seem to understand why the affluent middle class (an obsolete notion these days) fled to the suburbs in the 70s and 80s. It’s wasn’t just for more space.

#88 JacqueShellacque on 08.09.20 at 6:53 pm

“Don’t be afraid of volatility, because we’re now into years of it.”

Doesn’t that suggest needing enhancements to the 60/40, Garth, in order to protect against this volatility? Sequence matters.

#89 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 08.09.20 at 6:56 pm

#47 Lee

To Garth,

No mention made, in that magazine epic, of Biden’s mental state. Some days he looks like a tapped-out space cadet. Other days he looks tired and worn out. Some of his “presentations” are scripted, while others are “ended” by a “producer” who says the interview is over.

He needs to get out on the hustings and he needs to get debating Trump. Will that happen?

His V-P choice to be announced tomorrow, apparently, will be a whole new factor but we don’t know exactly what kind.

Trump’s not done. The Democrat Party is in deep trouble and it’s sending out the message that the only way Biden can win is if the ballot boxes are stuffed in his favour which is why Nancy and Chuck want all ballots to be of the mail-in variety.

Utter chaos will ensue if that happens.

Then where will the American Empire and its lackey colonials, including us, be…eating Peking Duck during the 2021 Chinese New Year’s celebration at a recently opened re-education camp?

#90 Howard on 08.09.20 at 6:59 pm

#17 Oakville Rocks! on 08.09.20 at 1:53 pm
What would a financial transaction tax look like?

And, where are you getting this from Garth? I have not read anything about such a tax.

—————————–

Probably similar to the way the GST is applied to retail purchases, except that it would be applied to directly to sales of financial instruments. The broker would simply withhold it. Unsure whether it would be a flat tax or a percentage of the proceeds (regardless of whether the proceeds constitute a capital gain or loss). I suppose either option is possible.

If the choice is between higher income taxes and financial transaction tax, the latter is far preferable. I think the government has gone about as far as it can go in punishing work.

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.09.20 at 6:59 pm

Re: Public employees bashing.
Worked in the private sector (banking) for 35 years.
Worked with / for many incompetent staff/executives.
Executives were the worst.
Sure they got fired when they screwed up, but the Golden Parachutes were, well Golden.
And they quickly found another excecutive job quickly.
The good old boys look after themselves.

#92 MF on 08.09.20 at 7:02 pm

#74 NfwMF on 08.09.20 at 6:12 pm

You are clearly coming at this with some sort of bias.

I’m looking at this issue in a none partisan way.

-the millions of unemployed might have suffered worse with no lockdown and no restrictions. We might have a worse situation on our hands now than we do. Evidence: the better than expected improvement in jobs returning we saw last week + the lower viral case numbers we’ve seen recently.

-people took her seriously because, at the time, there was a lot of fear. I ignore the E tough guys who say they had no fear in March because they are lying. I work with the public and there was clearly a palpable fear. The public demanded action. It wasn’t a matter of the leaders just jumping to conclusions and dictating, like you are implying. No politician would have stayed idle in that situation. As a matter of fact, Tam (remember her) was trying to downplay it all in the beginning and she was taking heat from all over. Who wanted the lockdown? The people did.

-those few weeks were important. It’s still too early to judge, but when you compare us to our closest neighbour and the country we most look like, and think like down south, we have (so far) fared better. It IS fact.

MF

#93 Digger-the-Dog on 08.09.20 at 7:06 pm

Firstly, the number of “confirmed” cases of COVID-19 is not the total number of people infected. It should not be portrayed as such because we have no idea, and will never know the total number of people who were infected. Therefore, the percent of the population that was infected will be indeterminant.

Secondly, it’s not over.

#94 John on 08.09.20 at 7:08 pm

#20 BC Doc on 08.09.20 at 1:57 pm

“The year so far has been a complete validation of investing in a balanced and diversified fashion. When the market crashed in March, equity losses were tempered by bond gains.”

Hi Garth,
Bonds were hammered too— no zigging when stocks zagged, both went down. VAB-T and VSB-T failed me when stocks were getting pummelled…. The smart guys I listened to on Bloomberg said it likely represented lack of liquidity on the bond side, concerns over credit quality, and mis-pricing in the bond market (no spot exchange). The Fed fixed the rout by buying up fixed income.

BC Doc
———————————————————
Correct, but the drops in bonds was much less than the drops in equities.

#95 Dolce Vita on 08.09.20 at 7:09 pm

#46 KNOW IT ALL

Yup, so true.

Incidentally, on that Incurable Disease list (massive in its length) are the other 3 coronaviruses:

1.Common Cold

2. SARS (per NIH, stay away from those places)

3. MERS (buried in the list under COVID-19, your usual zoonotic talk about dromedary camels and civets…again per WHO, use Lysol after handling)

BUT there will be a 100% effective, “gone, gone” COVID-19 vaccine just in time for ski, hockey and curling season to start, you ‘betcha.

Faerie dust. Leprechauns. Unicorns.

Noose around your neck, hanging from a tree BUT alive. HOPE springs eternal.

Put money in a TREATMENT. Live with it. In dignity.

————————

PS:

List for “Vaccine preventable diseases” (all 23 of them), grazie Australia:

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/health-pubhlth-strateg-communic-vpd.htm

#96 Smartalox on 08.09.20 at 7:20 pm

Hi Flop,

Thanks for doing the legwork, but I understand anecdotally that the property sold for $14k (over asking) after multiple bids. Seller was also an interior designer, and was offering to complete floors and kitchen to suit the buyer’s tastes for $100k on top of the selling price.

Decided to let that one go, but still on the hunt!

#97 Nonplused on 08.09.20 at 7:28 pm

“Remember this year. Especially what’s to come.”

Like what? Locust? Murder hornets? Tornados? Hurricanes? Flooding? Riots? Looting? Wars? Scandals? TikTok? Mail in ballots? Oh wait…

I disagree that the “run-to-the-burbs” meme is going away, but it is certainly being over-hyped. There are only so many burbs out there to run to. A few of the listings in my area have sold in the last few weeks so there is interest, but the closing prices indicate that house prices in these burbs haven’t gone anywhere or maybe slightly down in the last 7-8 years. It is Calgary after all. And I agree that the cities will recover. The burbs are not for everyone. It’s a good place to raise a family or hide out during a pandemic but there is something to be said for being able to walk home from the pub (once it is open again) or ride your bike to work. Or send your kids to the movies on the bus. Or anywhere really just get them out of the house for a while.

And taxes? Well I agree they are going to try and raise them because they are politicians after all but I think economically it won’t do much good. We are at peak tax (in terms of receipts) already. I think MMT (modern monetary theory) is much more likely. It’s all the talk these days.

For those who don’t know, MMT, to summarize, is the theory that since the government issues the currency, there really isn’t a reason they can’t just print the money they need (or want). The only constraint is inflation. Politicians love it for obvious reasons. There are some other nuances, like the role of taxes in keeping demand for the currency high and for social control (booze and cig taxes, carbon taxes, etc.) and the role of the new money in spurring economic activity but that’s the jist of it. As long as inflation isn’t too high just print the money!

And since inflation is considered low right now, I think that is exactly what they are going to do. The printing presses are going to go “brrrr” all night long until we see us some inflation! Powell is even floating sound bubbles that rates are not going to go up until inflation “catches up”, meaning I think that +2% will be tolerated until all the years that were -2% are caught up.

So it is definitely time for some midnight gardening. Just remember to leave a note for your kids in case you get the covid and wake up dead.

#98 KAC on 08.09.20 at 7:28 pm

More interesting polling news today:

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump in the national popular vote has shrunk to just three points, according to the two most recent polls released by major polling firms.

The Hill-HarrisX poll released on Wednesday gave Biden a 43 percent to 40 percent lead in the national popular vote, while the Rasmussen Reports poll released on the same day gave Biden a 48 percent to 45 percent lead.

Biden’s lead is slightly beyond the margin of error in both polls.

The Hill HarrisX poll, “was conducted online within the United States from August 2-5, 2020 among 2,850 registered voters by HarrisX. The sampling margin of error of this poll is plus or minus 1.84 percentage points.”

The Rasmussen Reports poll “of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted July 29-30 and August 2-4, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.”

#99 Rent the Podium on 08.09.20 at 7:28 pm

Merkel came out with a similar warning/forecast. Seemed like she was just following best available data. Garth, you may have this upside down. It’s not that Public Health was overly cautious, it’s that they were so late to game potentially because they shutdown their pandemic early warning (GPHIN) months before.

#100 claude Belfer on 08.09.20 at 7:38 pm

Trump is done. With due respect to you I disagree

#101 Camille on 08.09.20 at 7:41 pm

Looked into it and wanted to note today, that the S&P500 performance from 2008 to date is vastly superior to that of the S&P/TSX, even more so from 2009 or 10 years back. 200% gain compared to 100% or so. Also, only outperforming bonds in the recent downturn were govermment bonds, basically all duration treasuries. All corporates followed stocks down but recovered well after government policy response.
So my point is using the S&P (and any bond mix) yields high yearly returns, regardless of most anything else, and especially if preferreds are in the bond mix.

#102 Flop... on 08.09.20 at 7:44 pm

#96 Smartalox on 08.09.20 at 7:20 pm
Hi Flop,

Thanks for doing the legwork, but I understand anecdotally that the property sold for $14k (over asking) after multiple bids. Seller was also an interior designer, and was offering to complete floors and kitchen to suit the buyer’s tastes for $100k on top of the selling price.

Decided to let that one go, but still on the hunt!

////////////////

Hey Smartie, no problem, sounds like the numbers at my post #82 are correct.

Also the 100k renovation price tag that the seller was quoting was the same number as
mine that I gave you, so that was good practice for me just looking at photos.

————–
“For the money you are spending on it as is, 700k, without knowing what trades charge in that region, I would budget 100k to concentrate mainly on the flooring, kitchen and master bath.”

————-
Speaking of Edmonton also, what happened to that Shawn Allen fella?

Isn’t he from out that way…

M46BC

#103 Nonplused on 08.09.20 at 7:45 pm

#12 MF on 08.09.20 at 1:07 pm

“But get rid of the principle residence capital gains exemption. It has created a monster. It needs to go.”

———————-

That isn’t as easy as it seems. As soon as a house becomes capital then all the deductions for interest, maintenance, etc. also apply. Houses are not money and a primary residence is not a business.

It somewhat reminds me of Bernie’s new plan for a “one time” (ya right) wealth tax on the billions billionaires have supposedly made since the start of covid. He literally wants it all! But even without trying to figure out who the tax would apply to (do Garth’s clients count too?), the question is where are they going to get the money? They didn’t actually bring in billions, all that happened was the Robinhood traders bid up the price of their stocks. That is “notional wealth”, it isn’t real money until the shares are sold.

A house (primary residence) is not money. It is a house. When you sell it and buy another one you probably didn’t make any money, because you still only have one house. If you have to pay a capital gains tax, that just goes on the mortgage for the new house. So your proposal is that every time someone has to move for whatever reason, they should have to take out a larger mortgage to pay a tax. Preposterous. Especially since much of the capital gain is just inflation.

#104 Doug t on 08.09.20 at 7:45 pm

79 duke and tomato

Hmmm I live in Victoria too – pandora is charming and downtown also becoming same – Housing costs through the rough – local politics a shambles – I guess if you put your head in the sand it is “charming”

#105 SoggyShorts on 08.09.20 at 7:52 pm

#76 n1tro on 08.09.20 at 6:18 pm
My marketing professor back in grad school use to say that anyone quoting you rounded figures is making stuff up and full of it because it is rare that any calculations comes out even.

“I would say that it is safe to assume that it could be between 30 per cent of the population that acquire COVID-19 and 70 per cent of the population.” – Patty Hajdu

Patty, my rear admiral turned professor of marketing is saying you are full of it. Please peddle your fake news elsewhere.
*********************
That makes no sense. Have you ever heard anyone give an estimate to 2 decimal places?
Can you even imagine her saying
“I think we can safely assume that between 29.74 and 69.42% of people will be infected”?
It was an estimate.
If I say that I’ll earn “between 130 and 160k” this year is that less believable than between “127 and 163”?

#106 Joe on 08.09.20 at 8:01 pm

This is what Hajdu actually said:

Between 30 per cent and 70 per cent of Canadians could become infected with the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19, federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu said Wednesday, but that number will depend on the scope and scale of the response to combat transmission.

(emphasis mine)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-between-30-and-70-per-cent-of-canadians-could-be-infected-with/

Keep in mind, this was back at the start of March, before any measures had been taken and were worst-case estimates based on the “do nothing” scenario. So no, it was neither ill-informed nor irresponsible.

So many government apologists here today. Interesting. – Garth

#107 akashic record on 08.09.20 at 8:10 pm

“it is not the job of leaders to scare, exaggerate or mold public opinion by treating people as infants. It is a leader’s job to inform – fully, quickly and with transparency. Otherwise, trust is gone. – Garth

Public trust in leaders by your definition has been gone for a long time in politics, academia, media, business, etc. globally.

Not on this blog. – Garth

#108 The Woosh on 08.09.20 at 8:23 pm

The Canadian dollar was up over 0.75 cents at the end of last week (it’s come down a little tonight). Overall, I’d say Canada did good in its “overhyped” response. I’d say that’s a vote of confidence from the rest of the world!

Our currency moves relative to the US$. – Garth

#109 cuke and tomato picker on 08.09.20 at 8:27 pm

Doug T I live in Central Saanich which is rural but my
mailing address is Victoria BC.

#110 akashic record on 08.09.20 at 8:27 pm

#106 Joe on 08.09.20 at 8:01 pm

This is what Hajdu actually said:

Between 30 per cent and 70 per cent of Canadians could become infected with the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19, federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu said Wednesday, but that number will depend on the scope and scale of the response to combat transmission.

(emphasis mine)

So many government apologists here today. Interesting. – Garth

Nice try…

How about using quotes in full context? In the spirit of transparency and other qualities.

#111 Joe on 08.09.20 at 8:30 pm

Here’s the original committee meeting yielding that 30 to 70 quote. Watch the whole thing and judge for yourself:

https://parlvu.parl.gc.ca/Harmony/en/PowerBrowser/PowerBrowserV2/20200311/-1/32866?Language=English&Stream=Video

And incidentally, we still might hit that 30% number. Flattening the curve just means it will take longer to get there.

#112 joe on 08.09.20 at 8:31 pm

So many government apologists here today. Interesting. – Garth

I am not defending the government. I’m speaking out against your quoting sound bytes from the media to try and prove a point.

She said it. We all lie and die in public by our words. – Garth

#113 Ballingsford on 08.09.20 at 8:38 pm

Monumental screwups on everything, economic being the big one.
Hadji and Tam also quite the pair.
No mask Tam is wearing one now! Who would’ve figured.She looks hotter now than she did before.

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.20 at 8:39 pm

@#92 Ponzie Patter
“Sure they got fired when they screwed up….”
+++

They didnt have a huge union to protect them.
‘Tis the rare public sector employee that is fired.

They just hide, deflect, screw up, blame, stress leave, etc etc etc… year in and year out and at the end of 35-40 years….. (eating donuts and standing around the printer talking with other equally “stressed” employees )…… inflation indexed pension….
Win!

#115 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.09.20 at 8:40 pm

I hope I’m granted another post re: Polititians crying Virus.
Angela Merkel, PHD. Quantum Chemistry, Chancellor of
Germany said the following:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856
70% of Germans could be infected she said beginning of March.
And her popularity is going thru the roof.
And, she likes T2.

#116 n1tro on 08.09.20 at 8:44 pm

#105 SoggyShorts on 08.09.20 at 7:52 pm
#76 n1tro on 08.09.20 at 6:18 pm

*********************
That makes no sense. Have you ever heard anyone give an estimate to 2 decimal places?
—————
Yes, all the time. In financial forecasting. In scientific journals. It is the norm for people that actually strengthen their hypothesis by quantifying their opinions.

Real data come with things like correlation values which don’t end in zeros.

If you want some credence to what you are presenting even if the pandemic was just starting and there were a lot of unknowns, you would tell your audience where your numbers are coming from along with the key assumptions. Once your initial “doom and gloom” numbers don’t hit, you go back to your model and revise your stupid “put out of my butt” assumptions to be something more realistic. Repeat and revise until you get it within a reasonable margin of error or until the pandemic goes away. That is how real scientists do it.

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.20 at 8:45 pm

@#59 Grunt
“Time to get rid of the GG and a dozen? LGs flushing taxpayer money.”

+++

Why stop there?
The Senate is a rotten, festering lump of roadkill the taxpayers continue to pump hundreds of millions into so that they can rubber stamp whatever their Masters tell them to.

#118 The Woosh on 08.09.20 at 8:46 pm

#106 Joe on 08.09.20 at 8:01 pm
This is what Hajdu actually said:

Between 30 per cent and 70 per cent of Canadians could become infected with the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19, federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu said Wednesday, but that number will depend on the scope and scale of the response to combat transmission.

(emphasis mine)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-between-30-and-70-per-cent-of-canadians-could-be-infected-with/

Keep in mind, this was back at the start of March, before any measures had been taken and were worst-case estimates based on the “do nothing” scenario. So no, it was neither ill-informed nor irresponsible.

So many government apologists here today. Interesting. – Garth

———————————

Someone sounds defensive. Most times your points of view are on point. Not today. That’s how it goes. Just got to roll with it.

#119 Lee on 08.09.20 at 8:47 pm

#47,

Allan Lichtman calls a Trump win again. He’s all that matters. Don’t mind Biden as prez. If the Democrats let him stay on past November 3. Funny how your auto spell capitalizes Democrats but not republican, at least on my phone.

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.20 at 8:49 pm

@#60 Ponzie Potbelly

“Beer bellied, F-150 driving white males…”

++++

Moved to Nanaimo did you?

#121 Nonplused on 08.09.20 at 8:51 pm

One more comment and then I’ll stop, on 2 popular topics today:

First, Trump vs. Not Trump.

I’ve often said that this election is about Trump vs. Not Trump and the Dems know it or they would have came up with a candidate, which they have not bothered to do. Biden would be 85 (or so) by the end of his second term and he seems like he is losing it mentally already.

But, as they say, things are very difficult to predict, especially the future. That is why you have a balanced and diversified portfolio and a bunch of gold buried in the garden. And squirrel recipes.

I think the left has overplayed their hand. DTP (defund the police) and Antifa could turn out to be the deciding factors, as Trump has emerged as the “Law and Order” candidate. Despite what the MSM puts on TV, the “mostly peaceful” (read “not entirely peaceful”) protests are pissing a lot of people off, and uncle Joe has not come out against them. Remember, when polled over 80% of black respondents want the same or more policing in their communities. They are well aware of what happens if the gangs take over the streets. Without the police you have to take the law into your own hands. Not good. Even in the wild west every town had a sheriff.

Now on to covid on this “not a virus blog”.

The Spanish flu lasted over 2 years. Again, things are hard to predict, especially the future, but we are at best in the second or third inning. Do I think the government over-reacted? Yes. Do I think the government should have took it upon themselves to shut down schools and businesses instead of letting people decide? No, we are not children. Do I wear a mask when shopping? Yes, but I was doing that before mandated and anyway I do that every time I ski so it didn’t seem like a big deal to me. Do I socially distance? Well, it’s not possible to do 100%. Not 100% is 0% in cases like this. My fridge broke and I had to have a technician in my house. My neighbors keep passing around booze bottles at our 5:01 meetings (8:01 today). It doesn’t work.

Anyway we are 3-4 months into something that will go on for 2-3 years. Hajdu could turn out to be right. Just not yet. But I do agree with Garth that it will pass and it is not yet clear the economic damage caused by the government was worth it. Even the government admits that all they are really trying to do is save money on health care costs. Well, they spent a lot of money dropping dollars to pick up pennies. Is the cost of treating the odd patient who gets really sick so high that it is better to shut down the economy??? Well, that would mean there is probably a problem in the health care system.

#122 Dr V on 08.09.20 at 9:02 pm

80 soggy

“Personally, the wife and I can live very happily on under 60K per year, so we’ll pay ourselves dividends and pay 3% in taxes(plus the 11% we already paid at the corp level). Less actually, since it’ll be a blend of cap gains, eligible dividends, tfsa, and ineligible dividends.”

Hope to live on a little more, but I’m with you on the combo! Also RRSP!

#123 Polecat on 08.09.20 at 9:02 pm

#113 BALLINGSFORD

Thanks for the chuckle

#124 Dr V on 08.09.20 at 9:12 pm

90 Howard

If I work, and save some $$, then invest and get charged with a transaction tax, isn’t that still punishing working?

Regardless, many contries impose such a tax, but in most cases it is quite low – maybe a few tenths of 1%

I am not necessarily against it, as I believe they would just raise taxes somewhere else anyways.

#125 Jim on 08.09.20 at 9:15 pm

#106 Joe on 08.09.20 at 8:01 pm
This is what Hajdu actually said:

Between 30 per cent and 70 per cent of Canadians could become infected with the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19, federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu said Wednesday, but that number will depend on the scope and scale of the response to combat transmission.

(emphasis mine)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-between-30-and-70-per-cent-of-canadians-could-be-infected-with/

Keep in mind, this was back at the start of March, before any measures had been taken and were worst-case estimates based on the “do nothing” scenario. So no, it was neither ill-informed nor irresponsible.
******************
Joe, you are saying that these were worst-case estimates. both cannot be worse. The 70℅ was the worst estimate and the 30℅ was the best one. They were not based on the ‘do nothing scenario’, you just bolded the the part where they were dependent on scope of response. so 30% based based on ‘no response’ and 70% on the ‘full response’ .

Because none were close to the reality (0.03%), it makes them ill-informed and iresponsible. Not knowing the truth or listening to the guy who can’t prove what he’s saying does not absolve one of being guilty of misleading the public and propagating fear.

#126 Ballingsford on 08.09.20 at 9:36 pm

I like Tam wearing a mask now. I’ve always liked good-guy vs bad-guy shows.
Hadju is Clyde and Tam is Bonnie.

I like bad ass women!

#127 Keith on 08.09.20 at 9:38 pm

@Crowded elevatorfartz 08 07 20

@#63 Keith
“Generously estimating the cost per staffer at 100k per year, ignoring lost income tax revenue, increased EI costs and lost economic impact of those jobs, you just saved the taxpayer 5 billion per year.”

+++

Gee, you left out inflation indexed pensions.
Add another 5 billion per year….

See how easy it is?
All you have to do is pretend you’re in the private sector ( the real world) and fire the useless dead weight.
:)

——————————————————————–

So you believe the annual cost to the taxpayer, of providing a pension, costs as much as their annual salary and benefits combined. I hope with that kind of math you’re not working in the real world, in a competitive industry, being paid a living wage. If you are, you’re ripping off your employer or your clients.

#128 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 08.09.20 at 9:39 pm

MAKE BELIEVES GOING DOWN THE TOILET!!!!

WOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

TORONTHOLE SUCKS!!!!!

#129 Dogman01 on 08.09.20 at 9:54 pm

“The ability to misrepresent reality is a crucial – maybe the most crucial – leadership skill,” – Jeffrey Pfeffer

“When it becomes serious, you have to lie,”- Jean-Claude Juncker

#130 joe on 08.09.20 at 10:02 pm

Joe, you are saying that these were worst-case estimates. both cannot be worse. The 70℅ was the worst estimate and the 30℅ was the best one.

On the contrary, they can both be worst case estimates because they are based on different models of disease spread.

#131 Dr V on 08.09.20 at 10:14 pm

120 Fartz

“Moved to Nanaimo did you?”

Ouch……..

Perhaps we could just fill in the blanks.

(insert town)….(insert vehicle)…….

example “Port Alberni” and “F350s”
or “Vancouver’ and “BMWs” etc.

#132 Joe on 08.09.20 at 10:26 pm

She said it. We all lie and die in public by our words. – Garth

The statement in isolation is misleading. “30% could be infected” means 30% over the course of the entire pandemic. It does not mean 30% at the same time. This is a point Hajdu made most emphatically during the meeting I linked above, but it’s not a point I’ve seen in any of the media stories that reported on it.

If you want to blame someone for spreading fear and misinformation, blame the media. The current number of infected in no way disproves that 30% to 70% estimate.

#133 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 08.09.20 at 10:27 pm

CHOKE!

GASP!

MAKE BELIEVES ARE TOAST!

TORONTHOLE REVEALS ITS TRUTH YET AGAIN!

#134 BC Renovator on 08.09.20 at 10:29 pm

Excellent post Garth

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.20 at 10:29 pm

@#127 Keith
“So you believe the annual cost to the taxpayer, of providing a pension, costs as much as their annual salary and benefits combined.”

++++
Pffft.

No I was talking about inflation indexed pensioned retired govt employees.

I wasnt talking about the rest of us in the real world.

#136 Doug in London on 08.09.20 at 10:33 pm

@SoggyShorts, post #3:
I learned to read by the time I finished grade 1 in June of 1968 and you should learn to read also. I said, and I repeat, that during 2019 and even early 2020 when equities went way, way, way up and bond funds were down I cashed in some equities (for a profit) then bought bond funds when they were cheaper than now and maintained that mix. It was only when equities went on that Boxing Day and Black Friday combined BLOWOFF clear the inventory out RIGHT NOW fire sale that I sold the bond funds (at a profit, of course) and bought some of those DIRT CHEAP equities. I NEVER said not to buy bond funds, rather that you only buy them at the right time, for the same reason that the best time to buy a boat is in the fall, and the best time to buy skis or a snowmobile is in the spring when they are ON SALE. That time hasn’t come yet but it will and when it does I’ll reverse the flow and sell equities and buy bond funds. It’s like the tidal bore on the St. John River in New Brunswick or the Moose River in Ontario. The flow reverses and the river flows inland, but ONLY when the tide comes in and at no other time.

#137 Doug in London on 08.09.20 at 10:46 pm

First and foremost I like those predictions Mr. Market has made. There’s still some hope for the world after all. As for how the stock markets have been bouncing around I’m reminded of something I saw in Timmins back in the late 1980s. At the MacIntyre Mine there was a rock crusher, essentially a geared down motor driving a large set of mechanical jaws to break up the gold ore. The load ammeter was bouncing around in a chaotic pattern with no net increase or decrease. Every now and then it would get a big piece of rock and the ammeter would pin off the scale until the rock was shattered and come down again. That’s what the market is like now. What to do? There’s absolutely nothing wrong with parking your ass in the comfy cozy chair, putting your feet up, doing absolutely nothing, and let the dividends roll in. However, if you’re too impatient, during those days when the market is way up you can sell some covered call options to make a few extra sheckles while you wait out the storm.

#138 not 1st on 08.09.20 at 10:54 pm

Trump is done about as much as Justin has a super majority in sight. Not gonna happen.

When Biden can fill a gymnasium then we can think about it, until then its softball questions and rambling non coherent answers from the basement. Inspiring.

Trump takes about 1000 hard ball questions a day, has a press scrum every day and a daily briefing where he gets lambasted by the MSM. He is tough as nails. Biden rode a bike.

#139 Don Guillermo on 08.09.20 at 10:57 pm

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.20 at 8:49 pm
@#60 Ponzie Potbelly

“Beer bellied, F-150 driving white males…”

++++

Moved to Nanaimo did you?
*********************************

F-150 Hahaha, Also the vehicle of choice for those sophisticated Euro Quebecois types

#140 Ronaldo on 08.09.20 at 11:00 pm

#27 SoggyShorts on 08.09.20 at 2:23 pm
#20 BC Doc on 08.09.20 at 1:57 pm
Hi Garth,
Bonds were hammered too— no zigging when stocks zagged, both went down.
***********************
US 7-10y Treasury bonds did significantly better
https://tinyurl.com/y4vxmsfc

The more I learn the fewer things I like about investing in Maple…
—————————————————————–
Really? My maples are up 74% since beginning of the year and I have a tonne of them.

#141 Entrepreneur on 08.09.20 at 11:12 pm

I am hoping the U.S. will start their own W.H.O. and we join them. We think more like an American and Canadians go down to the States to see specialists.

As for our schools maybe start at 7:00 a.m. and end 7:00 p.m. but with three hour schedules throughout the day. Hear me out.

Only have three hour schedule like this: 7:00-10:00 for the early birds; 10:00-1:00 late mornings; 1:00-4:00 for afternoon; 4:00-7:00 for evenings.

This relieves anxiety as less students in each three-hour schedule with less of the other issues. Would have to leave before the end time to avoid incoming traffic.

And, there is more, lol, another thought maybe align the parent’s work schedule to the school three-hour schedule, partnership.

Pierre Poilievre is good, you have to be an honest person coming up against him. If you do not come up with an answer right away, well, what can I say, lol, won’t give any clues.

As for the UN trying to save as many green space for the planet I find they are contradicting themselves by allowing upheavals and other pollutants of our earth orchestrated by globalist leaders. And then allowing them to pay into the group. Unequal equation there.

#142 Anon on 08.09.20 at 11:32 pm

In committee, an opposition member repeatedly pressed for an estimate how many would get COVID.

The Minister replied, “[…] we have no certainty of what the numbers are, but we are planning, […] for the worst-case scenario. I think it’s irresponsible to give you [an exact] number because we don’t know, because the science is not clear and because there are a range of numbers that have happened in various countries. There are a range of estimates, but I would say that it’s safe to assume that it could be between 30% of the population that acquires COVID-19 and 70% of the population.”

This is the context in which the “30 to 70” remark was made. It wasn’t a press release; it was answering a question and admitting significant unknowns.

https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentViewer/en/43-1/HESA/meeting-8/evidence

#143 drongo on 08.09.20 at 11:39 pm

@#106 Joe on 08.09.20 at 8:01 pm
This is what Hajdu actually said:

Between 30 per cent and 70 per cent of Canadians could become infected with the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19, federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu said Wednesday, but that number will depend on the scope and scale of the response to combat transmission.

(emphasis mine)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-between-30-and-70-per-cent-of-canadians-could-be-infected-with/

Keep in mind, this was back at the start of March, before any measures had been taken and were worst-case estimates based on the “do nothing” scenario. So no, it was neither ill-informed nor irresponsible.

So many government apologists here today. Interesting. – Garth

////////////////

bipolar blogdogs

#144 millmech on 08.09.20 at 11:41 pm

Lots of fraudulent CERB checks going out due to possible CRA accounts being hacked, check your online account with CRA, make sure password/banking info has not been changed recently.

#145 Ronaldo on 08.10.20 at 12:00 am

#47 Lee

Here’s what the polls were saying back in November 2016. I suspect the results will be similar this time.

https://www.newsweek.com/polls-2016-presidential-election-trump-clinton-518280

#146 Drake 2.0 on 08.10.20 at 12:30 am

Why would people return to downtown cores when work from home is here to stay?

I went from thinking about a fuel efficient economic vehicle, to thinking about an electric vehicle as the future to realizing I don’t even need a vehicle anymore.

Insurance? Maintenance? Commuting? Screw that.

Awesome home in the burbs, lots of room, yard, eveything delivered push of a button. I don’t need to go to grocery stores, banks, hardware stores. They come to me. And shopping online is way more efficient. What is running around a grocery looking for product?

No thanks, would rather be spending it with family and dog.

Go back to a downtown office? Yeah right. The game is changing.

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.10.20 at 12:39 am

@#129 Dogma
“The ability to misrepresent reality is a crucial – maybe the most crucial – leadership skill…”

“”””””””

“Skilled Labour isn’t cheap. Cheap labour isn’t skilled.”

Spotted that on a T-shirt in a pub last week while I was “social” distancing……

:)

#148 Millenial CTO on 08.10.20 at 1:23 am

With all due respect, Nonplused, your argument is preposterous. Like many who defend capital gain exemptions on housing, you’ve forgotten about mobility between renters and owners, which is beneficial because it allows individuals to optimize their housing selection based on their particular needs at the time.

People in defence of capital gain exemptions on housing argue it is key to labour mobility. IE, if I get a better job somewhere else, I can sell the house and put the (larger) amount than paid toward a house in a new location, which has presumably also gone up in price. They argue if capital gains taxes needed to be paid, I couldn’t afford to move. This may be correct if all else were equal, but it is not.

A capital gains tax on housing, equal to capital gains taxes on other assets, would redirect investment from housing toward the most productive parts of the economy. Therefore, it would reduce gains in housing markets over time, so that the capital gains tax would be affordable if a move were needed.

Furthermore, it would mean that gains in housing and other assets would be more balanced, increasing flexibility for investors. If my move is not permanent, I can rent and invest elsewhere, without falling behind the housing market which currently receives a massive advantage in the form of capital gains exemptions. A new equilibrium would be reached which would be more fair between renters and owners.

It appears to me the main beneficiary of capital gains exemptions toward housing are realtors.

#103 Nonplused on 08.09.20 at 7:45 pm
#12 MF on 08.09.20 at 1:07 pm

“But get rid of the principle residence capital gains exemption. It has created a monster. It needs to go.”

———————-

That isn’t as easy as it seems. As soon as a house becomes capital then all the deductions for interest, maintenance, etc. also apply. Houses are not money and a primary residence is not a business.

It somewhat reminds me of Bernie’s new plan for a “one time” (ya right) wealth tax on the billions billionaires have supposedly made since the start of covid. He literally wants it all! But even without trying to figure out who the tax would apply to (do Garth’s clients count too?), the question is where are they going to get the money? They didn’t actually bring in billions, all that happened was the Robinhood traders bid up the price of their stocks. That is “notional wealth”, it isn’t real money until the shares are sold.

A house (primary residence) is not money. It is a house. When you sell it and buy another one you probably didn’t make any money, because you still only have one house. If you have to pay a capital gains tax, that just goes on the mortgage for the new house. So your proposal is that every time someone has to move for whatever reason, they should have to take out a larger mortgage to pay a tax. Preposterous. Especially since much of the capital gain is just inflation.

#149 SoggyShorts on 08.10.20 at 1:48 am

#116 n1tro on 08.09.20 at 8:44 pm
#105 SoggyShorts on 08.09.20 at 7:52 pm
#76 n1tro on 08.09.20 at 6:18 pm

That’s just not realistic. If you are estimating something to within 2 decimals, it’s not really an estimate, is it?
Don’t get me wrong, I think it was a bad estimate, but absolutely no one gave any estimates on it using decimals.

#150 SoggyShorts on 08.10.20 at 1:57 am

SoggyShorts on 08.10.20 at 1:48 am
#116 n1tro on 08.09.20 at 8:44 pm
#105 SoggyShorts on 08.09.20 at 7:52 pm
#76 n1tro on 08.09.20 at 6:18 pm
It’s also not how people talk in general.
When I see a price tag of $19.97 and my wife asks how much it is I say $20. It’s inaccurate, but close enough for the purpose

#151 Deplorable Dude on 08.10.20 at 1:58 am

And for anyone using New Zealand as a great example of pandemic control…..that country is a ticking timebomb.

They locked down so hard they have no herd immunity (unlike say Sweden). Should be interesting when they Open their borders again.

#152 SoggyShorts on 08.10.20 at 2:07 am

#122 Dr V on 08.09.20 at 9:02 pm
80 soggy

“Personally, the wife and I can live very happily on under 60K per year, so we’ll pay ourselves dividends and pay 3% in taxes(plus the 11% we already paid at the corp level). Less actually, since it’ll be a blend of cap gains, eligible dividends, tfsa, and ineligible dividends.”

Hope to live on a little more, but I’m with you on the combo! Also RRSP

****************
Yeah, more would be nice but I’m planning to do it in SEA so it’s kinda like 90k?

I’m not actually sure about the withdrawal combo and what mix I’ll be using. I have a 5y structured buyout first and then I’m pretty sure that we’ll drain the corporate investments since those are the most likely target for tax increases, but after that?
It’ll be a changing formula I assume based on how taxes work then. Maybe just take the RRSP out before 71 and keep the TFSAs for rainy days?
Our whole plan was to retire in 2021 and travel the world for a few years before settling but flipping it will be fine too.

#153 Jane24 on 08.10.20 at 2:28 am

Valid predictions except for people returning to work and living in city cores. The latest survey from the RE Surveyors Association here is that 30% of respondents are actively looking to get out of London and into their dream locations with a garden and an at-home office. Who cares where you live now as the chain to London has been broken by home working. And I am talking about the City of London, England here. One of the real world class cities, not a fake Canadian world class city. London which along with NYC is one of the two financial centers of the world. Currently both are empty and I believe doomed to remain so.

Major retailers are leaving Oxford St one of the premium shopping areas of the world for an online life. This road literally has boarded up building for the first time in my 66 years. Hate to be a commercial RE investor.

My daughter with a major job commented that it is so much easier to stay in contact with her global offices in different time zones from home. She will be returning to her Soho office one day a week.

An in-law cannot sell her lovely 2 bed town condo as there is no market. All buyers want to dig a little deeper to afford a townhouse with dirt and extra room for home working.

Another in-law has 2 final months of work closing down the chain clothes shop in a major Canadian mall where she worked.

Very very different times are coming, with totally different rules.

#154 crazyfox on 08.10.20 at 2:35 am

Was that totally irresponsible? Or just uninformed? In fact no country on earth has experienced that rate of infection. – Garth

Over a 5 year timeline, it might. I believe that was the timeline used with this projection 5 months back. 5.2 million confirmed cases in the U.S. now, or 1.5%. How many cases confirmed/unconfirmed… 4%? This projection is not unreasonable over a 5 year timeline, put in the right context.

Agree with you concerning the government overreaction. Of course, the governments that didn’t react paid the price or are doing so now. Governments in Europe, the U.S. and Brazil come quick to mind as examples. There were far less expensive choices that could and should have been made. Ignoring the problem wasn’t one of them. Would love to offer my 2 cents more but that’s all I have time for, cheers.

#155 BillyBob on 08.10.20 at 3:50 am

#92 MF on 08.09.20 at 7:02 pm
#74 NfwMF on 08.09.20 at 6:12 pm

You are clearly coming at this with some sort of bias.

I’m looking at this issue in a none partisan way.

===============================================

Sure ya are. LOL Biggest public worker defender on the site, worship your parent’s devotion to the public system, but you’re just an impartial observer. Right. Sell us another load.

Garth is correct. Hadju (and Tam and others) have been outrageously irresponsible at times in their wild rhetoric. Zero accountability. It’s amusing how obvious it is a nerve has been struck. The defensiveness of the public sector is blatantly obvious today. Stands to reason though…all these months of full pay to do nothing leaves a lot of time on one’s hands to get on the computer.

As to suburban flight, screw that. I am thoroughly enjoying the new place in Praha, just too damn hot at the moment. Beautiful in the evenings down on the Vltava, the beer boats are out and the tourist numbers are down just enough to make it pleasantly uncrowded – extremely unusual in mid-summer and doubtful if it will be repeated next year.

Biggest challenge of the day so far is tweaking the new cleats in my clipless cycling shoes. It’s like the summers of my childhood – except I’m doing it without having to suckle on any government teat.

#156 Sail Away on 08.10.20 at 6:33 am

#144 Ronaldo on 08.10.20 at 12:00 am

Here’s what the polls were saying back in November 2016. I suspect the results will be similar this time.

https://www.newsweek.com/polls-2016-presidential-election-trump-clinton-518280

—————-

Ronaldo, I think the accepted strategy is to completely disregard 2016’s dog’s breakfast of polling history, because, you know, this time is different.

This time, not last time, but this time, Democratic (or at least anti-Donald) hopium will prevail.

How’s this for a rallying cry:

‘Feel free to ignore history because there’s no possible way the exact same thing that happened in 2016 will happen again.’

#157 Dennis on 08.10.20 at 6:36 am

DELETED

#158 unbalanced on 08.10.20 at 6:40 am

I love it when politicians talk out both sides of their mouths. Should I zig or should I zag??? That is the question.

#159 maxx on 08.10.20 at 7:37 am

#14 forgotmyusername

“Well, respectfully, I have to challenge one of your assumptions: “Trump is done.”

Speaking as someone who understands US politics better than I understand Canadian politics, methinks Mr. Turner dismisses Mr. Trump too swiftly.

If the Dems had nominated a real centrist who didn’t have so much baggage — and was under 70…..”

On the point of age, I completely disagree. Just look at what is running this country. It’s like kindergarten took over the principal’s office.

No, age has very, very little to do with competence – quite the opposite.

#160 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.10.20 at 8:13 am

@#154 Billybob
“The defensiveness of the public sector is blatantly obvious today. Stands to reason though…all these months of full pay to do nothing leaves a lot of time on one’s hands to get on the computer.”

++++

God forbid you suggest that union protected, public “servants” are a group of molly coddled lay abouts….
Hell hath no fury like a public “worker” scorned.

Hopefully Trudeau’s “Bonfire of the Billions” will force changes sooner rather than later….but I wont hold my breath.

I’m noticing more daily flights into YVR , not a great many, but definitely an increase.
Saw an EVA (Taiwan) jet yesterday on final approach.
A rare bird these days.

#161 Captain Uppa on 08.10.20 at 8:38 am

Another reason people are fleeing urban cores is the rising wave of homelessness. It’s getting closer and closer to the wealthy and they don’t like it.

Even Trump tweeted about his pledge to the suburban loving well to do not having to deal with rental housing and shelters bringing down their property values.

Everyone is a bleeding heart until they see it close to them.

While interest in suburban properties has increased, there is no statistical of people ‘fleeing’ urban centres in large numbers. Be careful about using a Trump tweet as a definitive source. – Garth

#162 Dharma Bum on 08.10.20 at 9:14 am

#78 Montana Bob

Regarding mortgage deferrals: I don’t believe there will be a mortgage deferral cliff.
——————————————————————–

You’re probably right.

All the “cliffs” that have ever been predicted over the years were simply fodder for mainstream news junkies and paranoiacs. Remember the “so-called-fiscal-cliff” ramblings in the Obama days? All a bunch of crap.

They like to fear monger, but they always back off with an extension or bail out.

Our government is too chicken to throw the deadbeats of our society (and there are a TON of them) to the wolves, and let capitalist nature take its course.

At the end of the day, there really are no serious financial consequences in Canada for debt pigs and defaulters. The taxpayer will save your sorry tushes.

#163 Captain Uppa on 08.10.20 at 9:19 am

While interest in suburban properties has increased, there is no statistical of people ‘fleeing’ urban centers in large numbers. Be careful about using a Trump tweet as a definitive source. – Garth

———————————————

Yes, I would be careful with Trump in terms of anything he says. But I was just pointing out the general sentiment out there as espoused by Trump in his tweet.

As for the city exodus narrative, there are definitely trends of migration to the suburbs, especially in the United States. With Covid, that has trend is accelerating.

Is it a complete hollowing out? The data does not show that, however the trend is in that direction. Will there ever be a complete hollowing out? Probably not. But the interesting part is who is leaving. It used to just be those who couldn’t afford the city, but the now the wealthy are leaving.

You can see Mr. Cuomo in NY about that problem, though the main narrative of this is due to “high taxation”.

#164 TurnerNation on 08.10.20 at 9:25 am

Ahh I see on Bandit’s Insta-gram he’s posted some fun and frivolity. Hope the LCBO will not get wind of this.

Funny stuff all the Milennials gunning for a Home Capital Gains and also “wealth” taxes. You just reduced your potential inheritence by 30%. Well done. T2 will take that money and send it overseas and hand it out to local drug addicts, pimps and layabouts in the form of permanent UBI.
A FOOL and his money soon are parted eh. Same old it never changes

#165 Howard on 08.10.20 at 9:45 am

#124 Dr V on 08.09.20 at 9:12 pm
90 Howard

If I work, and save some $$, then invest and get charged with a transaction tax, isn’t that still punishing working?

——————————-

By that logic, virtually every tax on the planet could argued to be one that punishes work, except perhaps inheritance and lottery taxes.

I think we can agree that income tax is the most DIRECT punishment for work and should be therefore discouraged in favour of other means to generate revenue when/if necessary.

#166 Dr V on 08.10.20 at 10:11 am

151 good morning soggy

Yes definitely have to keep an eye on the changing tax rules. At first I thought I would do a quick drawdown on the rrsp but my advisors new software showed a more efficient combo. It surprised her too.

I also figured that our after tax income in retirement would be equivalent to s single wage of around $90-95k. That made me feel better.

#167 Hal Stan on 08.10.20 at 10:53 am

Not usually interested in US elections, but “transformative”? Think about it. Would you vote for a party that have sent their foot soldiers into the street to burn loot murder? Though it may seem that the TV shows are overflowing the chaos, journalist-politicians are in the minority . Television chaos really doesn’t have as much impact as TV journalists would like you to believe. The Democrat Party announced they resistance’ 19 minutes after Trumps inauguration. Since then it’s been a big tizzy . Think, the collusion, the pee scandal, the this , the that, the big big eyes of Shiff , it’s all a show. Americans in the majority, of every color and class know that the burning and looting is being done by a few small agitator groups organized by the globalists and Silly Party crazies. You never voted RHINO. Why would a majority of Americans.

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.10.20 at 10:56 am

Well well well
Communist China has just thrown down the gauntlet.
Seems they will not tolerate any dissent in Hong Kong.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN25600L

When the rich and powerful in HK are being rounded up…. no one is safe.
Prepare for the exodus.

How many dual Canadian citizens live in HK?
300,000 ? 400,000?

#169 Mattl on 08.10.20 at 11:00 am

The issue is not the virus. The response to it. Proportionate and responsible, hysterical and extreme – or just right? – Garth

I think it depends on the province. For all that I dislike about the NDP, their approach to this in BC was brilliant. No fear mongering, daily briefs, and fairly reasonable business accommodations. Where I live most business stayed open – even retail wasn’t forced to close – and there is no mask hysteria. We have not been hiding at home, and masks to no masks is probably 1/10.

#170 Do we have all the facts on 08.10.20 at 11:29 am

The better to be safe than sorry mentality looks reasonable until the social and economic costs of the measures taken to reduce the risk of infection become evident.

The majority of Canadians believe that infection from Covid 19 comes with a risk of death. This belief remains in spite of clear evidence that the risk of death from Covid 19 for healthy Canadians under 60 years of age is extremely low.

For elderly Canadians and individuals whose immune systems have been compromised the wearing of masks and social distancing is prudent until the virus has run its course. Shutting down major components of the Canadian economy to protect the population most vulnerable to possible infection was certainly the most expensive solution possible.

Surely contacting every citizen whose circumstances made them vulnerable to infection from Covid 19, informing them that protective measures were necessary, reducing the possibility of viral concentration and closely monitoring their health would have been far more cost effective than shutting down the economy and forcing millions of healthy citizens into financial distress.

In Canada well over 90% of all deaths attributed to the Covid 19 virus involved individuals living or working in environments where the virus became concentrated. Over 80% of all deaths involved residents of long term care facilities whose natural immune systems had been compromised.

We have the facts necessary to implement more practical solutions to protecting the health of our citizens. Why are we continuing with solutions that contribute to economic chaos and unnecessary fear.

Time to focus on actual risks that the Covid 19 virus poses for Canadian citizens and to get our economy back to normal as quickly as possible.

#171 Attrition on 08.10.20 at 11:31 am

Frightening prospect: that Mr. Market has ‘decided’ that Trump won’t win in November; that he’s done.

I wonder how voters–those people yet to cast their ballots in November–feel about that.

Also, how does Mr. Market know how people are going to vote in the future?

The polls and media sure didn’t last time around…

And if the Market already things it a Biden presidency…what happens to the markets if it’s wrong?

#172 jess on 08.10.20 at 11:43 am

another kind of infection? the language behind the “hug”

https://pressprogress.ca/meet-the-strange-and-mysterious-group-organizing-anti-lockdown-protests-across-canada/

https://www.antihate.ca/canadian_hate_groups_threatening_black_protests

#173 JB on 08.10.20 at 11:44 am

#63 april on 08.09.20 at 5:09 pm

#44 – We know people who live in high-rises and they can hear their neighbors all around them – each side… above and below…. no guarantee you won’t be subjected to your neighbors noises no matter what condo building you live in. Condo living is restrictive and depressing but most have to make do with it if they can’t afford a house.
…………………………………………………………………
Agreed if you dont want to smell the neighbors and hear their noises then stay the hell away from a CONDO. There isn’t a damn thing you can do about it once your in one believe me. CONDO life sucks.

#174 Captain Uppa on 08.10.20 at 11:52 am

Downtown Vancouver condo sales down 18% YOY in July. House sales in Fraser Valley up 56%.

This according to GVA realtor guru, Steve Saretsky:

https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1292841854099025921

#175 JB on 08.10.20 at 11:53 am

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.10.20 at 10:56 am

Well well well
Communist China has just thrown down the gauntlet.
Seems they will not tolerate any dissent in Hong Kong.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN25600L

When the rich and powerful in HK are being rounded up…. no one is safe.
Prepare for the exodus.

How many dual Canadian citizens live in HK?
300,000 ? 400,000?
……………………………………………………………………
I guess our immigration needs will be met shortly. Or should I say our dual citizens will come home to roost.
To bad they don’t like living in the big smoke here vs left coast.

#176 JB on 08.10.20 at 12:02 pm

People will commute again and want urban locations. Condos will take longer to recover in proportion to height, so buy low-rise. Lock in your mortgage – five years at under 2%. It’s a once-in-a-lifetime gift. And wait to purchase (if you can truly afford it) until the mortgage deferral cliff arrives.
………………………………………………………………
My one neighbor just listed for a market value and said if he doesn’t get what he wants then he is going to wait out the deferral cliff as he doesn’t need to sell but will if he gets the correct value for his home. He is lucky and owns his property outright. So he will list then in two and see what he can get. He says in two years property values will increase anyway here in the city.
As they usually do, still can figure that one out when you see what your dollar does in the burbs.

#177 'Hey mister, wanna buy a brick'? on 08.10.20 at 12:10 pm

Why are you people worried about how T2 should repay his new loans that no one asked him to take? The lenders will just take the natural resources. If you are hell bent of creative new ways to empty your own pockets, how about a job security tax? you know all government employees pay extra. see how stupid things can get?

Remember the oldest joke in the world?

‘Hey mister, wanna buy a brick’?

#178 Calgary Claudia on 08.10.20 at 12:17 pm

If you divide 45 million by 120,000 and then round up you get 0.003. This is the FRACTION of the population that has tested positive. To be expressed as a PERCENTAGE you have to multiply by 100… resulting in 0.3%.

#179 Calgary Claudia on 08.10.20 at 12:24 pm

Meant to say 120,000 divided by 45 million… we all make mistakes.

The population is 37.7 million. – Garth

#180 IHCTD9 on 08.10.20 at 12:31 pm

#174 Captain Uppa on 08.10.20 at 11:52 am
Downtown Vancouver condo sales down 18% YOY in July. House sales in Fraser Valley up 56%.

This according to GVA realtor guru, Steve Saretsky:

https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1292841854099025921
____

Toronto loses more of its citizenry to surrounding areas than any other city in Canada – I believe Vancouver is #2 on the list. While it’s already been a couple years since big city folks started the exodus out of Canadian Metros, Covid has only now pushed the trend even harder.

Canadian Metros are actually late to the party – New York, Chicago, and L.A. have been bleeding Citizens for years now, too expensive, too dangerous, too crowded, and now in 2020 – add in too risky.

All they’ve got now is foreign immigration for population growth, without it – they’d all actually be shrinking. Western born Canadian Citizens (foreign or domestic) quit having kids a long time ago, and now they’re moving out. Frankly – the kids of today’s new arrivals will likely be of the low fertility persuasion as well. Can’t blame them either with million dollar family crap shacks and 2k day care staring them in the face.

Maybe if those HK folks decide to bail – they will buy up all those empty Van condos…

#181 Honest Realtor on 08.10.20 at 12:47 pm

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.10.20 at 10:56 am

Well well well
Communist China has just thrown down the gauntlet.
Seems they will not tolerate any dissent in Hong Kong.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN25600L

When the rich and powerful in HK are being rounded up…. no one is safe.
Prepare for the exodus.

How many dual Canadian citizens live in HK?
300,000 ? 400,000?

________________________________________

EXACTLY what I said to watch out for recently on this blog.

There will be a massive influx of immigrants starting this fall and extending for years. The world is in too much chaos, and Canada just looks so good in comparison.

The federal government will happily, gleefully open the doors, in desperate need of more taxpayers to reduce our Covid 19 debt.

China, Europe, Middle East, USA, South America and more. Plus climate change effects will push more to the north.

Millions more will become Canadians very soon. Our population will likely double by 2050-2060. 150 million by 2100 looks probable.

Real estate? Use your imagination.

Treat this moment as if it were March 2020 in the stock markets and you followed Garth’s advice. You’ll never look back.

This time of opportunity will be gone too soon.

#182 WTF on 08.10.20 at 12:49 pm

#139 Moved to Nanaimo did you?
*********************************

F-150 Hahaha, Also the vehicle of choice for those sophisticated Euro Quebecois types
————————————————————–

Wow!

Got a friend moved from Nanaimo area to Que with his wife and F150……and He was born in Scotland…..uncanny !

#183 jess on 08.10.20 at 12:54 pm

Millennial Realist
transactional tax? what about “The prosecutors dubbed this scheme “transaction laundering.”

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20308209/prosecutors-response-to-akhavan-and-weigland.pdf

What is transaction laundering and what is the Industry doing about it?

Transaction laundering — also previously known as “undisclosed aggregation” or “factoring” — occurs when a merchant processes unknown transactions on behalf of another business.

https://www.paymentscardsandmobile.com/what-is-transaction-laundering-and-what-is-the-industry-doing-about-it/
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Once a darling of the fintech scene, the payments provider filed for insolvency last month after being forced to admit that €1.9 billion (S$3 billion) missing from its accounts likely did not exist.

Wirecard Under Criminal Scrutiny by US Authorities as Part of …
http://www.wsj.com › articles › wirecard-under-criminal-scrutin…
Jul 8, 2020 – The Justice Department is examining whether scandal-plagued German … with executives at the marijuana marketplace—Eaze Technologies …

#184 Lone Star on 08.10.20 at 3:02 pm

More details on fraudulent CERBs through hacked accounts:

https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/b-c-woman-caught-cerb-100000537.html

#185 Calgary Claudia on 08.10.20 at 7:17 pm

OK so the population is 37,700,000.

120,000 confirmed cases gives 0.3183% not the 0.03% you used to introduce the health minister’s remarks.

We don’t know how many undetected cases there are but it could be 10 or 20 times the number of confirmed cases. That would mean 3% or 6% of the population infected WITH the shutdown in place.

I do agree that her “safe to say” at least 30% will be infected statement was excessive. A good example of them reducing their credibilty by treating the people like infants.

#186 50 grey hairs on 08.11.20 at 12:06 pm

Trump is the Law and Order choice in the US election. Similar rioting and looting happened in the sixties. In the 1968 election Nixon unexpectedly one 50 of the 51 states with the promise of Law and Order.