Moral hazard

As goes 416, so goes Van. The latest housing stats from YVR echo those in Toronto, where sales have jumped more than 20% from last July, despite the fact last summer there was (a) no pandemic, (b) no CERB, (c) no mortgage deferrals, (d) eight million people still had jobs, (e) your office was still open, (f) nobody wore a mask, (g) only a crazy person would believe the federal deficit would be $450 billion and (h) you didn’t know what what a “WE’ was.

Wow. So many changes. So much to go wrong. Nine thousand Covid deaths in Canada, Lockdowns. Airlines grounded. No tourism. Depression-era unemployment stats. A recession. And, yup, FOMO – driving house sales nuts form Halifax to Victoria.

Once again we’re reminded of a truism on this blog from years ago: there’s an inverse relationship between interest rates and real estate. When one goes down, the other one goes crazy. This year, especially, when the contrast between an orgy of buying and the economic destruction the pandemic has caused is acute.

Well, there’s more coming. A significant national lender has now broken the 2% barrier for an advertised five-year fixed mortgage rate. Quietly the major banks have been handing out such loans at around 1.98% (or a little less), while their official posted rates remain higher. But Tangerine has dipped to 1.99% (although it’s a collateral mortgage). As mentioned here the other day, 10-year money has also been eroding in cost, with a decade-long mortgage now available at a little over 2.5%.

So does this make variable-rate mortgages unwanted?

Mostly, yeah, it does. VRMs might be had for a couple of basis points less, but why bother? A fiver at these prices means your loan rate will almost certainly be lower than inflation in the years ahead. That’s akin to free money. So this generational, virus-induced collapse in the cost of home loans is exactly why we have a real estate boom in the middle of a health crisis. That, plus the fact the spring market was pushed into July.

Not only are fixed-term rates equal or less than the cost of a variable-rate loan but (a) they are likely to drop further (a little) as central banks pump out stimulus and drive bond yields lower, and (b) this won’t last. When Covid fades as vaccines arrive, those CBs will be raising rates again to offset the ridiculous accumulation of debt they’re causing. Borrow today at 1.9% and look like a Nobel economics laureate in 2024. Easy to get dates then.

So will this boomlet last?

   In a blog post this week, then in a Toronto magazine article, my answer was ‘no.’ Of course not. Cheap mortgages combined with pent-up demand and low inventory is realtor catnip, but we continue to face strong economic headwinds. Unemployment will still be double-digits by Christmas. Mortgage deferrals will come to an end. CERB is turning into EI – which has a negative footprint on credit/employment histories. The airlines, tourism, entertainment, hotels, sports, live entertainment, bars, conventions and trade shows – all these sectors have been hobbled and will remain so as long as social distancing is in place and pandemic fears rage. It was interesting some industry rockstars attacked me for saying such things. Moral hazard, I guess.

So what about a second wave?

No idea if it’s out there, or just media fiction. But we do know most Canadians are freaked out about Covid, unwilling to see the border open, suspicious of eating out and terrified of flying. The masks everyone now sports are visible symbols of a surrender to fear.

In this environment, the sales and price stats bursting out of the major centres (except those in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, NB and the Rock) look like aberrations. Buyers are certainly embracing risk. And it’s not over yet. As infections spread in the US and the gong-show presidential election approaches, bond yields could fall further taking mortgage costs with them. Not a lot. But enough to hook more buyers and jack up values.

Amazing. A 13% unemployment rate and record property prices. Something has to give.

By the way, a recent Edward Jones survey found the pandemic is sinking retirement plans for a lot of folks in their 50s and 60s. They’re diverting income to supporting their Millennial offspring, and lack enough savings – since most net worth is in real estate. The median nestegg among members of this cohort without a corporate pension plan is… wait for it… just $3,000.

That’s what real estate does. The illusion of security.

185 comments ↓

#1 Rick Fast on 08.05.20 at 3:27 pm

Let the housing correction begin….. GTA to go down by 30 percent over 2 years

#2 TurnerNation on 08.05.20 at 3:32 pm

On the topic of housing:

What to bet that meat plants will be the first to go? This article is all over the UK mainstream papers:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8593993/Councils-BULLDOZE-contaminated-homes-resort-stop-second-wave-coronavirus.html

(Would the Crown Bankers use the Crown Virus to flatten then reposess your house – taking back the Crown Land? Hmmm)

As predited many times — down to the letter – last year:

#91 TurnerNation on 12.17.19 at 8:06 am
For years now I’ve stated a time will come whereby armed government men destroy perfectly good food stuffs while desperately hungry people look on. Maybe the WHO says there is a virus, or maybe the correct ‘carbon permit’ was not obtained beforehand

#49 TurnerNation on 09.10.19 at 8:54 pm
I beleive in my lifetime good foodstuffs will be trashed as armed men look on and people are starving. Maybe the correct karbon permit was not applied for, or the WHO claims dread disease and we comply. Trees have more rights than yourself.

TurnerNation on 05.28.20 at 9:07 pmyeah the spoils of this War are already being divided up. Meet the shadow govt.
I’ve posted may times for years on here they I expect soon perfectly good foodstuffs forced into waste as we hunger, or wailing families kicked to the curb, all by armed govt men. The reason? Oh it will be along the lines of home Energy Audits failed, or Carbon Permits not obtained. Add a dose of food inflation and insurance company gouging.
I can cook up a number of oppressive themes. They surely will. All under the guise of Green movement. Green as in dollar bills.
The goal is simply to turn 1st world countries into 2nd

#3 Don on 08.05.20 at 3:36 pm

Hi Garth, can you post a link to the Edward Jones survey? I cannot find it.

Cheers

#4 Stone on 08.05.20 at 3:37 pm

Garth, can you post a picture of you wearing your mask on your instagram? Does it have an O Canada flag on it to match the one on your BeeMO branch? Or better yet, does it have a mugshot of Bandit on it?

I just grew one. – Garth

#5 Peter McLean on 08.05.20 at 3:37 pm

I spent my life savings on lysol wipes, hand sanitizer, and toilet paper.

#6 Bill on 08.05.20 at 3:38 pm

People are nuts Garth…..way too much debt and no cash flow from your home…
Here’s a great piece from Bob on the SCAMDEMIC ….. stupid Govs all around..
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty080520.html

#7 Rainman on 08.05.20 at 3:41 pm

At some point you have to sell of course and then boom, your rich.

#8 devore on 08.05.20 at 3:41 pm

#49 Dolce Vita

So, one of the TOP 15 EPIDEMICS OF ALL TIME…no biggie, it’s all good, right?

Ok, now adjust for population. Something lots of industries forget to do when comparing numbers across more than 10 years. Like real estate shills.

#9 Lefty on 08.05.20 at 3:54 pm

“The median nestegg among members of this cohort without a corporate pension plan is… wait for it… just $3,000.”

Oh to have inlaws with that much cash!

#10 John Lefevre on 08.05.20 at 3:55 pm

#trudeau will extend CERB for another 6 months and raise the amount to $3000/month which will save Canada

#11 Linda on 08.05.20 at 3:55 pm

A $3K ‘retirement’ nest egg at age 50 plus? Seriously? The plan must be to sell the RE in order to retire (presuming they DO have some), or these folks are depending on a sizable lottery win to occur. Good luck with that:)

#12 Alex on 08.05.20 at 3:57 pm

People cannot help themselves with these low rates… I guess more to come if the rates drop even lower (somehow) this fall.

Big sigh!

#13 Howard on 08.05.20 at 3:58 pm

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/05/us-crude-oil-production-plunged-most-ever-natural-gas-followed-the-great-american-oil-gas-bust-phase-2/

“US crude oil production in May plunged by 1.99 million barrels per day, from 12 million b/d in April to 10 million b/d, the largest monthly drop since at least 1980, and the sixth monthly drop in a row, according to the EIA.”

Alberta-haters are going to have to eat plenty of crow in a couple years when oil is back over $100/barrel. And unlike during the previous oil bull market, Alberta likely won’t silently send its wealth east (and west) to provinces that tried to destroy it.

#14 Jimmy Zhao on 08.05.20 at 4:00 pm

It seems that with all of these ethics violations, the only thing that sticks to Trudeau is blackface paint.

#15 FreeBird on 08.05.20 at 4:06 pm

In Pbo houses seem to sell fast in our area but doesn’t translate to an entire city. We’re (or were) a commuter city and few new big SFH, townhome and new high end condos planned for next year on top of existing. New trend to incl % of higher end rental units with new builds. Not sure whose going to buy them.

#16 Millennial 1%er on 08.05.20 at 4:06 pm

Beat inflation with this one simple trick: take out loans with interest lower than inflation. Who would have thought it would be so simple?

#17 blogshark on 08.05.20 at 4:09 pm

” The median nestegg among members of this cohort without a corporate pension plan is… wait for it… just $3,000.”

And all of us outside that cohort should expect to be soaked to pay for it.

Canada does not reward success.

#18 MF on 08.05.20 at 4:14 pm

#13 Howard on 08.05.20 at 3:58 pm

I’ve never met an “Alberta hater” in my life.

Who are you talking to? Who are any of these people talking to?

MF

#19 The Wet One on 08.05.20 at 4:17 pm

“The masks everyone now sports are visible symbols of a surrender to fear.”

Really Garth?

Stupidity like this is making you sound like a member of the Raving Looney Party.

It’s not a good look.

Do better.

Or whatever. Burn your own house down and call it good. Me, I’ll keep my gas in a gas can and my matches separate and apart from my gas. You might call it fear, I suppose but I’d call it prudence.

Fear of infection. You wear a mask for any other purpose? – Garth

#20 Sail Away on 08.05.20 at 4:21 pm

Speaking of security, have you ever experienced the security features of a Tesla? Phenomenal to say the least. I can safely sip organic water while seated in my Tesla and parked in any Walmart lot I feel inclined.

I like to live the high life I deserve. However, I’m also frugal and see no point in supporting local small business when I can save a dollar.

#21 Overheardyou on 08.05.20 at 4:23 pm

It’s times like these that make me wonder what good is a 800+ point credit score when anyone can borrow as much as they want with no repercussions, because big bro will always be there for you

#22 Leichendiener on 08.05.20 at 4:24 pm

According to the City of Toronto website, the last COVID related death was July 22nd. According to Tony Heller on YouTube, COVID19 may die out before a vaccine is administered. Who is Tony Heller? Just a mathematics/engineer with a dog named Toto who isn’t into panic porn.

#23 FreeBird on 08.05.20 at 4:25 pm

In Peterborough (and many cities Im sure) home care is still being hurt and leaving many with limited to NO much needed care/support services (incl palliative and Alzheimers patients – in some cases both spouses). Key front line nurses and PSWs have been left without child care options. These are often dedicated caring staff who pre ‘emergency’ worked mult jobs to make up FT hrs but also to help local agencies/LTC centers in need of staff. Many would work days off or nights to help reg clients to ensure they had care. Damage being done by this lockdown of fear goes much further than money. Just ask CCAC care coordinators who struggle to find care for clients/patients and or smaller private agencies whose quality of care is above and beyond bigger names. Not giving a name out of respect to this blog and agency who’re already in high demand and working hard to help new/existing clients. It’s truly heartbreaking the trickle down effect esp based on the stats.

#24 Sail Away on 08.05.20 at 4:25 pm

$3,000? Wow. They should buy 2 Tesla shares.

I bet most blogdogs have 2 or 3x that. Living large!

#25 crazed and a little confused on 08.05.20 at 4:26 pm

hi garth,

it doesnt matter . real estate is CAN life blood. with this % rate. people will borrow as much as they can and that mean SIngle family houses is the goal.. not so much with condos because it is a covid magnet

whether they can keep this up. they will borrow , sell stuff it order to keep it .

you dont understand the lust , love and desire to own it

#26 BlogDog123 on 08.05.20 at 4:27 pm

$3000 ?
Are they chronically underemployed or deep in debt saving a nest egg average of $3000 ?

Keep working until you’re dead, I guess…

#27 ZEB ZWB ZWC on 08.05.20 at 4:29 pm

Hi Garth thanks for the continued blog posts.
Before I ask my question a comment
I fully understand all the information about high unemployment. So what begs the question how are people getting mortgages with CERB? Lenders are not stupid. So based on this simple analysis people who are working are buying homes and high unemployment is mainly limited to minimum wage workers and self employed. That’s my guess. In conclusion high unemployment is not going to affect housing.

My question to bloggers
A few days ago I posted a comment that I was surprised that the cash distribution for the BMO Z ETFs was interest. Someone posted and said I was wrong. So again I looked it up.
So please do not just go to BMO site and post a link and say see it’s dividends, same goes for any website.
Before answering please do what I did log onto your account and look At the past few months activity in your account. And guess what all those monthly deposits are labeled interest.
So is this the same for everyone?
Thanks for answering
Have a great day.

#28 Brian Ripley on 08.05.20 at 4:34 pm

My Calgary Housing Chart is up:
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

SF Detached are still in high demand as the buy-side picks through a dearth of listings.

Res-Listings down 51% from JUN 2010 high
Res-Sales down 44% from MAY 2013 high
Current Monthly Absorption Rate = 28%
Current Months of Inventory = 4

Calgary SF Detached Price
Down 6.3% from MAY 2017 peak
Up 17% in last 10 years

Calgary Town House Price
Down 29.5% from MAR 2018 peak
T-Houses are priced at 56% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.8 Townhouses

Calgary Condo Price
Down 25.5% from JUN 2014 peak
Condos are priced at 48% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 2.1 Condos

#29 Dolce Vita on 08.05.20 at 4:34 pm

Good take on all things Garth. 2nd wave, worry about it when it comes, or not.

On the vaccine, don’t hold your breath (literally), all data so far says it isn’t going to happen. I would be putting my money into therapies that prevent deaths from the damn virus and/or alleviate sickness.

———————————-

Looked at StatCan’s “Canadian international merchandise trade, June 2020” and mixed results.

Trade Balance -$3.916 million

StatCan saying up 17.1% which is m/m, June vs. May. Thinking positive that’s good.

A little reality though on Exports:

June 2019 $49,604 million
June 2020 $39,707 million

-20%

About 60% of that $10,000 or so million y/y drop:

Energy -62.9% ($9,613 million –> $3,564)

So good news a 17.1% m/m rebound in Exports, bad news still -20% from a year ago and Energy, getting slaughtered.

Most of it due to the US not importing as much from us, about -26% from a year ago:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200805/t001a-eng.htm

———————-

Yet another hole to dig out from under, BUT, we are digging AND that’s the GOOD news.

#30 Bill on 08.05.20 at 4:36 pm

#14 Jimmy Zhao on 08.05.20 at 4:00 pm
It seems that with all of these ethics violations, the only thing that sticks to Trudeau is blackface paint.

Proving democracy is dead. T2 is an arrogant crook.

#31 Captain Uppa on 08.05.20 at 4:43 pm

I am very fortunate with timing to renew my mortgage. I will be refinancing for at least 5 years fixed and maybe 10. I will take equity out of my home and use the money to fund my 60/40.

That’s right, fund my 60/40. Not buy a Dodge Ram or a jet ski.

#32 Bill on 08.05.20 at 4:44 pm

The lock down is BS. My Wife is a Flip and we were going to buy RE on the ocean in Philippines. Not anymore.

Tom Woods
Doomers really are determined to pretend Japan doesn’t exist.
When they thought Japan would suffer badly after refusing to lock down, they couldn’t talk about Japan enough.
When Japan did fine, they temporarily lost interest.
That is, until they thought they could use the example of Japan on behalf of mask wearing.
Japan did well because they wore masks, became the conventional wisdom.
Well, here’s the problem there: right now Japan is having a bigger outbreak of cases than at any time during the pandemic, despite the mask wearing.
So the Doomers have gone back to pretending Japan doesn’t exist.
Here’s a typical blue check on Twitter with nearly half a million followers:

See what I mean?
Japan had neither a national lockdown nor mass testing. Its results have been fine (and will continue to be fine despite the current surge in “cases”).
Therefore, it no longer exists in the Doomer consciousness.
Meanwhile, the Philippines had one of the toughest lockdowns of any country in the world, and were threatened with on-the-spot execution for violations. A recent survey, moreover, found them to be the most consistent mask wearers in the world.
Result:
Another spike.
Government response:
Another lockdown of a poor country.
The vast majority of people there, as anywhere, are at trivial to zero risk from COVID. Therefore, let’s lock down and impoverish absolutely everyone.
So apparently the plan is simply to keep locking countries down. For all our vaunted “science,” this wreckage of whole societies is the best these geniuses can come up with.
Meanwhile, if you take the data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker index and plot it against health outcomes — in other words, if you look to see if there’s any apparent connection between severity of lockdowns and success against the virus — you find no connection at all. The distribution is entirely random.
As future ages look back on the 21st century, our “public health” establishment will be a laughingstock: dressed in white coats and holding clipboards, but prescribing leeches and rain dances and human sacrifice and calling it “science.”

Tom Woods

#33 Timmy on 08.05.20 at 4:45 pm

Come on, median nest egg 3K? YOu can’t live a month on that. This is BS.

The data came from “Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP), Seniors and Poverty: Canada’s Next Crisis? August 2017” and here. Now apologize for the outburst. – Garth

#34 Attrition on 08.05.20 at 4:47 pm


#8 devore on 08.05.20 at 3:41 pm

#49 Dolce Vita

So, one of the TOP 15 EPIDEMICS OF ALL TIME…no biggie, it’s all good, right?

Ok, now adjust for population. Something lots of industries forget to do when comparing numbers across more than 10 years. Like real estate shills.

Crickets and tumbleweeds from lap dog Dolce.

How about it Dolce – a retort?

#35 crossbordershopper on 08.05.20 at 4:52 pm

CB will lower rates to zero, they have stated here and in the US, that effectively they are never going to raise rates again.
we should see 5 year mortgages below 1% next year on its way to zero. yes zero, and cdn 5 year bond yields first drift to zero from its current .50 on its way to flash negative.
when you have trillions In debt, what do you think govt bonds are going back to 5% there wont be enough tax revenue to cover the interest, it wont happen.
its basically every home will cost a million , equal to 3000 rent plus utilities with zero rates over 25 years. this is the new math the world lives on now.
money has no real purchasing power moving forward. and marginal rates will go to 60% and the threshold will be non indexed so almost everyone above minimum wage will pay crazy taxes on a regular income.
just my 2 cents

Mortgages are not going to zero and rates will of course rise as GDP growth resumes. – Garth

#36 Leigh on 08.05.20 at 4:56 pm

New COVID-19 cases in Sweden vs. Europe in past 14 days
Source: World Health Organization (as of August 2)

• Sweden: Down 46 percent
• The Netherlands: Up 205 percent
• Belgium: Up 150 percent
• Spain: Up 113 percent
• France: Up 72 percent
• Germany: Up 59 percent
• Finland: Up 160 percent
• Denmark: Up 81 percent
• Norway: Up 61 percent
• U.K.: Up three percent
https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-covid-19-death-rate-lower-spain-italy-uk-despite-never-having-lockdown-1522306

#37 mike from mtl on 08.05.20 at 4:59 pm

#27 ZEB ZWB ZWC on 08.05.20 at 4:29 pm
…..

My question to bloggers
A few days ago I posted a comment that I was surprised that the cash distribution for the BMO Z ETFs was interest.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

I can’t speak to those three, but ZPR for sure is eligible dividends and some ROC. ZRE is mostly ROC, some cap gains and little eligible dividends.

If held in RRSP/TFSA/LIRA then none of this makes any difference.

Check your T3.

#38 Dolce Vita on 08.05.20 at 5:00 pm

Today Gov Canada giving $TBD for #TBD doses to Pfizer and Moderna.

You know, same Moderna that since the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak still can’t come up with a vaccine for that coronavirus, or that other coronavirus MERS [don’t touch or send your camel to bed even if it’s Midnight at the Oasis, if so use Lysol].

BUT, they’re going to find one for COVID-19. Logic, “A” being success in coronavirus vaccine development thus far:

If SARS ≠ A
Or MERS ≠ A
Or Common Cold ≠ A
Therefore, COVID-19 = A.

Ya, makes a lot of sense to me. It does to everyone else it seems.

Well, World Govs have to be seen to do something to make The Little Pandemic that Could “gone, gone”.

4th time lucky?

And ya, just to be on the safe side (lest the locals rebel about not getting their pound of flesh), Gov Canada pumping $56 million in Canada to bolster vaccine development.

—————————-

HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL. DOWN BUT NOT OUT. HANGING BY A STRING.

Meanwhile World Govs being fleeced by Pharma.

…welcome to Humanity and Planet Earth.

#39 Billy Buoy on 08.05.20 at 5:00 pm

I read today the FED estimates 4 RATE INCREASES in a GENERATION. Aka 20-30 YEARS… 1 every 7 YEARS roughly.

Rates are going LOWER.

And NEVER say they can’t or won’t go negative after what we have experienced this year….

The CB are OUT OF CHOICES. PERIOD.

Negative rates are unlikely, and what you read is historically inaccurate. – Garth

#40 Yukon Elvis on 08.05.20 at 5:04 pm

Amazing. A 13% unemployment rate and record property prices. Something has to give.
…………………….

Yup. T2 government will continue to give. CERB morphs into EI morphs into UBI to infinity……or we have social unrest. Six guys with a picnic table and a case of beer on the railroad track would shut this place down again in a matter of days.

No lender is giving mortgage money based on CERB or UI income. – Garth

#41 Dirty Dan on 08.05.20 at 5:05 pm

The X-factor of the Corona Virus. A guide to determine when to social distance and when it’s safe to gather:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpbrvWe3xFk

#42 aW on 08.05.20 at 5:05 pm

$3,000 Jesus…

“Fear of infection. You wear a mask for any other purpose? – Garth”

I wear a mask because it is mandated where I live.

And why is it mandated? What a dumb conversation. Bye. – Garth

#43 jess on 08.05.20 at 5:07 pm

bankruptcy brake

Leichendiener on 08.05.20 at 4:24 pm said:
COVID19 may die out before a vaccine is administered.
=======================
humans spread white nose fungus to bats
moratorium on caving activities in affected areas

circulating in animals—-> spread to humans ——->back to animals
bat virus, with a still-unidentified animal perhaps serving as an intermediate host, which could continue to be a reservoir for the virus.

tigers at the Bronx Zoo and
minks on Dutch farms seem to have caught COVID-19 from humans and, in the case of the minks, passed the virus back to humans who work on the farm.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/coronavirus-will-never-go-away/614860/

#44 Stan Brooks on 08.05.20 at 5:07 pm

A cheaper alternative for 1 bedroom all glass condo of 500 sq feet in GTA, located in Southern France.


https://www.green-acres.fr/en/properties/20516a-0867.htm

Reached by a long drive bordered by cedar trees this 19th century country property was renovated by an architect during the 1980s. The property is sold furnished. The house comprises a large living room of 66m² with modern central fireplace & picture windows overlooking the garden & countryside. Dining room, kitchen, 5 bedrooms including 3 on the ground floor, 2 bathrooms. Guest’s house in need of renovation with large basement garage. Large barn of metal construction (300m²). Landscaped garden with tennis court. Land of more than 7 hectares with 2 lakes. An attractive property in a secluded setting not far from Castéra-Verduzan.

Price: 380 k Euro.

But I am sure that 1 bedroom condo in GTA is a better investment.

Cheers,

#45 Trojan House on 08.05.20 at 5:08 pm

#19 The Wet One on 08.05.20 at 4:17 pm

Garth is absolutely correct – it’s a surrender to fear. It’s why 70% of Canadians said they would take a vaccine that was produced in a month with virtually no testing and no clinical trials. And then call anyone who is skeptical that it works, an “anti-vaxxer.” Since when have Canadians become kittens (for lack of a better word)? Those who took Vimy Ridge and died doing it would turn over in their graves.

#46 Sail Away on 08.05.20 at 5:09 pm

Walmarts offer free parking to RVers and overnight car campers. Nothing better than rolling up in the Tesla, stretching out in the back on the queensize foam mattress, setting climate control, watching a little Tesla-hotspot Netflix and drifting into beautiful dreamland- all while protected from evil by Elon.

Wake in the morning, have a few sips of organic water and head to the nearest gym for a workout, shower and shave. So good. Why doesn’t everyone travel this way?

Enough. – Garth

#47 Bill on 08.05.20 at 5:10 pm

#36 Leigh on 08.05.20 at 4:56 pm

Is there a point to listing these….You actually believe WHO, Fauci or your gov? Now stop with the fear-mongering and get back to work….The lock down is FAAAAAR more dangerous than Covid.

#48 Bill on 08.05.20 at 5:12 pm

I rest my case.
https://www.howestreet.com/2020/08/lockdown-pandemic-real-estate-home-sales-ross-kay/

#49 Dolce Vita on 08.05.20 at 5:14 pm

To all the fall upon their own sword:

“Adjust for population” Top 15 Epidemic of all time, non sequitur people

…then don’t worry about it.

Play stat games. Knock yourselves out.

If you are TRUE BELIEVERS OF YOUR STATS, then go ahead, get out there into crowded spaces, no mask, fondle the veggie and fruit produce with your bare hands, go to a local ICU and hand hold giving comfort to very sick or dying COVID-19 patients.

I DARE YOU. It’s no biggie to you, based on your “stats”.

Ask the 850 thousand or so that have already died what they think about your ever so cogent analysis…and probably the 1 million more that will die even without the mythical 2nd wave.

The point of it was to convey this pandemic is serious even when compared to epidemics of all time and to not make cavalier comments such as “we can all agree it has been overrated”.

Lost on yourselves.

Now, go crunch some more numbers. It’s your THING.

#50 Rico on 08.05.20 at 5:16 pm

You wear a mask because it is the smartest way to allow the economy to open up without overwhelming the health care system. It has nothing to do with fear.
Just wear a mask. It is literally the least we can do.

Was the health care system overwhelmed where you are last month when masks were not mandatory? – Garth

#51 Dolce Vita on 08.05.20 at 5:27 pm

#36 Leigh

Yup, it’s getting worse in Europe, % wise and I agree. Today’s numbers, new cases:

Spain 5760
France 3379
Germany 1024
UK 670
Netherlands 485
Sweden 169 (they bounce between that and near 400 day over day)

Bad day for Italia = 384, 190 yesterday.

Most of the Worldometer data a day old. Above from Italian MSM for the day.

——————————

I have been watching Europe closely for the past month, daily, and YES there is an upward trend.

1st wave flare-ups or 2nd wave…does it really matter?

Some people getting very sick (about 15% of the infected, 85% get mild to few symptoms) and 3.8% will die per the case fatality rate, CFR, from John Hopkins.

NOT GOOD FOR ECONOMIES. NOT GOOD FOR LIFE TO RESUME AS IT WAS.

Even I still hope for a vaccine though I have my doubts. Humanity needs it yesterday.

#52 Yuus bin Haad on 08.05.20 at 5:32 pm

Masks? I like the ones that look like muzzles.

#53 kommykim on 08.05.20 at 5:35 pm

RE: Fear of infection. You wear a mask for any other purpose? – Garth

========================================

Wearing a mask doesn’t protect the wearer. It protects others in case the wearer is infected. So wearing a mask isn’t a sign of fear, but rather a sign of respect and caring for your fellow man.

Because you’re afraid of infecting others. My statement stands. Masks = fear. – Garth

#54 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.05.20 at 5:35 pm

#27 ZEB ZWB ZWC on 08.05.20 at 4:29 pm

That was me, I have several BMO ETFs, including ZEB, across several accounts, all distributions are listed as dividends, not interest on statements.

Even ZAG, their aggregate bond, is dividend distribution.

Are you sure you’re not mistaking your interest received on any cash amounts you may have?

#55 Mark on 08.05.20 at 5:40 pm

why are people surprised? the government is doing EVERYTHING THEY CAN..backflipping cartwheels…to stimulate people to spend more during this recession. And when Canadians want to spend, they flock to housing and leverage. We know that well. So this is the result. shocking right?

#56 will on 08.05.20 at 5:41 pm

$3000? that a typo?

#57 Stone on 08.05.20 at 5:45 pm

#4 Stone on 08.05.20 at 3:37 pm
Garth, can you post a picture of you wearing your mask on your instagram? Does it have an O Canada flag on it to match the one on your BeeMO branch? Or better yet, does it have a mugshot of Bandit on it?

I just grew one. – Garth

———

Well, I guess you don’t buy the groceries. Some guy in my area tried that one. The 16 year old grocery store worker (all 120 lbs dripping wet) told him to bugger off…and he did…and came back with his mask…because he was hungry.

#58 The WOMBAT on 08.05.20 at 5:45 pm

Like Hannibal Lechter, I wear a mask for your protection, not mine.
How flat does the curve need to be? r=?

#59 Ken R on 08.05.20 at 5:48 pm

@Blogshark,

“Canada does not reward success.”

You hit the nail on the head with that one.

#60 Drinking on 08.05.20 at 5:54 pm

Was the health care system overwhelmed where you are last month when masks were not mandatory? – Garth

It would have been had we not been wearing masks and taking safety precautions, what the hell is the big deal???

Case loads in my Province has gone down every day since August 1st mask wearing bylaws were implemented. Does not take a brain surgeon to figure out why rates are going down. Christ oh mighty what is wrong in trying to protect our elders???

#61 T on 08.05.20 at 5:58 pm

Anything with dirt is demanding multiple offers and high prices.

Condos, especially in downtown Toronto, the exact opposite. Demand is waning and prices are falling fast. Is this the beginning of the end of the entire market or will it be contained to the boxes in the sky?

#62 Dolce Vita on 08.05.20 at 6:03 pm

#36 Leigh

That Newsweek article mostly statistical, % crap.

Sweden’s Chief Health Officer admitted a month ago they “messed up” thinking they could achieve herd immunity without a vaccine.

Newsweek needs to read the latest European GDP forecast, abysmal even for Sweden.

Sweden, like Canada, “outta of the way” geographically. A fairer comparison is how they did vs. their neighbors Norway and Finland…HIDEOUSLY bad vs. them.

Sweden has different forms of prevention in place, lost on Newsweek (typical know nothing Americani).

Comparing them to say Italia, where 1/4 of all Chinese tourists during their New Year celebrations and January came to visit vs. Sweden which like Canada is not exactly where they went for obvious reasons, colder than a witches papula or drenched.

Comparing a little dickwad country with the likes of Spain, Italia, UK, Germany and France…tourist havens and high travel based on GDP commerce is pretty STUPID if you ask me.

It’s like saying Antarctica is doing much better than the US, per capita with COVID. About that STUPID.

And honestly, Americani really KNOW NOTHING about what is actually happening in Europe, including the Canadians and their MSM.

American obsession at present:

Misery loves company.

#63 Bob in Hamilton on 08.05.20 at 6:06 pm

Trojan House on 08.05.20 at 5:08 pm

“Those who took Vimy Ridge and died doing it would turn over in their graves.”

Sir, that country you speak of from the past no longer exists but only in our dreams…

#64 espressobob on 08.05.20 at 6:18 pm

You wear a mask to protect others.

They wear them to protect you.

Nothing worse for the minority to have ones ass stuck up their ass.

#65 Drinking on 08.05.20 at 6:19 pm

#51 Dolce Vita

As I mentioned many times before there will never be a vaccine for a Corona or flu virus; they constantly mutate; that is natures way of taking out the weak. It is unfortunate, Corona (do not have a link to provide you right now) scientist are saying that there are 30 different strains of the common cold alone.

Right now, for the respect of those who have a weak immune system or have other health issues the least we can do is to wear a dam mask, wash our hands and follow proper distancing. What is the big deal; we can still go out and enjoy life.

#66 Stoph on 08.05.20 at 6:22 pm

Seeing how this is now also a mask blog, I think I’ll chime in.

I took a one day Biosafety course at a university last week that covered safety procedures when working biological samples. The instructor, who had been a manager for a level three biosafety lab, was asked by a student what’s a better way to protect yourself from covid-19, wearing gloves or a mask? The answer – washing your hands. The instructor didn’t say too much about masks other than that they have a limited useful life (90 minutes for an N95 mask) and I felt that due to the politicization of mask wearing that they couldn’t freely express their opinion more on the matter.

We also did an experiment and sprinkled a bit of glow in the dark powered on gloved hands and then checked our hands under a black light after rubbing our hands together. Guess what – the powder had made it’s way into the gloves and onto hands.

My takeaway was that gloves and masks work – if used correctly. But every time people touch their mask, they may as well have spat into their hands as far as spreading germs is concerned. I suppose my server’s oversized mask that he was constantly readjusting was probably spreading more germs than was keeping in.

#67 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.05.20 at 6:39 pm

I know this isn’t an anti-masker blog, but I do think that categorizing anyone who doesn’t want to wear a mask as an “anti-masker” is incorrect.

I haven’t seen anyone who says no one should wear a mask via personal choice. Have at ‘er.

I’ve seen plenty who’ve registered their objection to being forced to wear a mask. Myself included.

Big difference.

#68 Leigh on 08.05.20 at 6:43 pm

Bill on 08.05.20 at 5:10 pm
#36 Leigh on 08.05.20 at 4:56 pm
Is there a point to listing these….You actually believe WHO, Fauci or your gov? Now stop with the fear-mongering and get back to work….The lock down is FAAAAAR more dangerous than Covid.
=================================
The point was Sweden didn’t do a strict lockdown yet their cases are going down vs. up for those who did!

#69 Trojan House on 08.05.20 at 6:54 pm

#60 Drinking on 08.05.20 at 5:54 pm
#64 espressobob on 08.05.20 at 6:18 pm

So I’m hearing that Japan, the poster country for mask wearing apparently, is experiencing a recent spike in cases.

Go ahead and think that way if you want to but don’t come crying to Garth, or myself, when you have to start showing your immunity or essential work papers or you can only leave your home to go grocery shopping (only one member of a household can shop) or you can’t travel more than 5 kms from your home or they can demolish your home because it was previously infected with Covid or enter your home without a warrant to arrest you for not self-quarantining, etc…

If you want to continue to wet the bed, go ahead. I think Garth is absolutely correct on this.

#70 Alberta on 08.05.20 at 6:56 pm

DELETED

#71 Trojan House on 08.05.20 at 6:56 pm

#53 kommykim on 08.05.20 at 5:35 pm

How’s that koolaid tasting kommykim? Although coming from you, I’m not surprised.

#72 Leigh on 08.05.20 at 6:59 pm

#62 Dolce Vita on 08.05.20 at 6:03 pm
#36 Leigh
That Newsweek article mostly statistical, % crap.
Sweden’s Chief Health Officer admitted a month ago they “messed up” thinking they could achieve herd immunity without a vaccine.
============================

Sweden’s chief health officer said they should have taken better care of nursing homes but we have to wait for another year or so to judge their actions vs. other countries.

This data clearly compares all the other Nordic countries and Sweden still fares better.

#73 Nonplused on 08.05.20 at 7:01 pm

“The masks everyone now sports are visible symbols of a surrender to fear.”

Or, at 50 cents a pop it could be just common sense. Even if they are only 50% effective at capturing the virus if both you and I wear one the chances we infect each other drops by 75%. That’s not zero, but locking your doors doesn’t reduce the chances of a burglary to zero either and you still do it. Think of all the time you could save over a lifetime if you just left the doors unlocked. Sure, you’d lose the odd TV, but time is your most valuable asset. And there isn’t anything good on TV anyway.

“The median nestegg among members of this cohort without a corporate pension plan is… wait for it… just $3,000.”

That is alarming. The good news is that Lotto Max is $10 million this week, so plan B looks good.

With the median retirement nestegg at only $3,000 I fail to see how there is much room to raise taxes. To me it is indicative that people don’t have any money left at the end of the month as it is. I suppose you could blame it all on bad choices but I don’t think that’s the whole answer. Life is too darn expensive. I suppose the burden will fall as it always does to the top 80% but we’ve done the math enough times on this blog to know there isn’t enough water there to float the boat. Wealth taxes won’t work because wealth is not money. Taxing houses won’t work because houses are not money (unless they are a rental business then you can tax the income as you would any other business). Any of these proposed taxes are going to have to come out of income just like property taxes do, so that will mean even less money at the end of the month for everybody.

Inflation is the only way out of it I see. We’ve been doing it since 1971 so why stop now? I think that is what gold at $2050 (US) is telling us. Gradually cutting the dollar by another 98% over the next 50 years should fix things. Afterall, they did it once, so they can do it again. So perhaps using a 2% fiver to buy a house isn’t such a bad idea. Now if only the inflation would start to show up in wages.

Next stop, the nickel joins the penny and the rounding is to the nearest $0.1.

#74 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.05.20 at 7:02 pm

If we’re ready for some stats again, ponder this. As of today there are around 15,000 active covid cases in Canada. (Google search for “active covid cases canada”).

Even if every single one of these people was in the contagious phase and was not isolating, then, using simple math, 0.042% of the people in Canada have “the Virus” and thus could “infect” someone else right now.

Just sayin’.

#75 Nonplused on 08.05.20 at 7:03 pm

*top 20%

#76 unbalanced on 08.05.20 at 7:05 pm

mask = fear = unknown. Thats why people wear them.

Maybe politicians who really cared about public health would ban smoking and vaping. Tobacco = 45,000 dead Canadians per year. Covid = 8,900 fatalities. – Garth

#77 conan on 08.05.20 at 7:07 pm

The fundamentals are broken and the “Black Rock game” can not go on forever. We are watching history here. Trump is worst president ever. That plus this WTF are we doing element of mass realization….. means a lot of things are over valued at the moment. Would not surprise me if the markets wake up to this obvious fact soon. To me, the time is now to get out of FANG, take some profits, and buy it back later.

#78 Nonplused on 08.05.20 at 7:09 pm

#20 Sail Away on 08.05.20 at 4:21 pm

“I can safely sip organic water”

“organic water” haha, ok you are overdoing it now.

#79 Sail Away on 08.05.20 at 7:09 pm

#64 espressobob on 08.05.20 at 6:18 pm

Nothing worse for the minority to have ones ass stuck up their ass.

—————

Yep, that does sound pretty bad. Improbable and uncomfortable for sure.

#80 MF on 08.05.20 at 7:13 pm

7 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.05.20 at 6:39

That’s called success. Let’s hope it stays that way.

Masks: how about “why can’t you wear a mask?”

(Yes Health issues like allergies aside).

MF

#81 Flop... on 08.05.20 at 7:13 pm

#97 kingston boy on 08.04.20 at 8:36 pm
@#88 Flop… on 08.04.20 at 7:59 pm
I need all you guys.

There, I said it.

Don’t want people walking off in haste. (Jaguar.)

Don’t want people being impersonated, so we lose the natural flow of dialogue. ( Sail Away.)

Not saying he doesn’t deserve some ribbing but not under his name, he claimed it, it’s his to write what he wants under it.

If you can’t think of an original name, you probably shouldn’t type anything else.

Guys I dont share many views with, I still want to hear what they have to say.( Faron and MF)
————-

you’re a strangely passive aggressive dude lol

////////////////

I don’t follow.

How is sticking up for a guy who shat on my dead friend, because I still believe he should be allowed to type his own words, passive aggressive…

M46BC

#82 MF on 08.05.20 at 7:18 pm

72 Leigh on 08.05.20 at 6:59 pm

Again with Sweden.

The results ARE in.

Sweden faired worse than other Scandinavian countries in terms of death, but better than Western European countries like the UK.

Reason? Culture. Swedes listened to their government and social distanced, wore masks etc.

That’s the Sweden story. Moving on.

MF

#83 Drinking on 08.05.20 at 7:22 pm

68 Leigh

This is not an anti or for wearing mask blog. I stated my opinion for wearing one for the fact that along with washing hands and just respecting your fellow scared citizens is just what we should do. Our cases are going downward for it.

Sweden’s case is bogus; they are not doing better then the rest of the world and there economy is suffering as much as the rest of us. They themselves have stated that!

This Virus is (my opinion) is not natural; our objective is to fight it, get our lives back to some normal state where one can purchase a house with a reasonable wage and raise a family, or invest in ETF’s or whatever other stock/pension funds that can provide us with a secure retirement. Right now just take whatever precautions one can take to survive the next two years.

Garth, although we do not see eye to eye but your blogs regarding preparing for the future is the right thing to do, I appreciate your blogs, you are doing a great service; we all appreciate it! Well, maybe not that crazy feline person “Felix”! :)

#84 Reality Bites on 08.05.20 at 7:23 pm

“Fear of infection. You wear a mask for any other purpose? – Garth”

Yes. Not wanting to get infected, spread infection, or end up with a community locked down to a non-functional level again.

If that’s an emotion at all, it’s desire.

Whatever the case, it is not out of fear that I wear a mask: it is out of logical necessity. A sizable volume of studies have shown that enough people wearing masks in a population help to reduce infections and mortality, and allow businesses to start functioning again.

But perhaps we enjoy seeing businesses shutter across Canada or the spectacle of our southern anti-mask neighbours, where >1,000 are dying daily now and FEMA trailers are needed to handle the overflow from the morgues.

If I feel an emotion that compels me to wear a mask with that context, then it is disgust.

(Side note to Tom Woods who thinks that Japan is seeing a rise in cases despite masks: read up on where the infections are occurring: largely at indoor events where people are not wearing masks.)

That sounded pretty fearful to me. – Garth

#85 Ottawan on 08.05.20 at 7:24 pm

Sorry G, but you’re wrong about masks.

Wearing a mask in indoor public spaces is being considerate.

Shaming another for not doing so is being fearful,

#86 Drinking on 08.05.20 at 7:26 pm

#69 Trojan House

Then do not wear one; I could care less! If you come down with it then I wish you the best, good-luck!!

#87 T on 08.05.20 at 7:29 pm

#74 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.05.20 at 7:02 pm
If we’re ready for some stats again, ponder this. As of today there are around 15,000 active covid cases in Canada. (Google search for “active covid cases canada”).

Even if every single one of these people was in the contagious phase and was not isolating, then, using simple math, 0.042% of the people in Canada have “the Virus” and thus could “infect” someone else right now.

Just sayin’.

————

What are you saying Bytor?

I think what you are really saying is you don’t understand exponential functions.

Your 0.042% (of known infections) can quickly climb if measures are not taken to contain it.

Now, I expect you would come back with some kind of comment about me being paranoid. When, in actuality, I just understand math – and have seen the effects of this virus first hand. So save it.

#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.05.20 at 7:32 pm

#74 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.05.20 at 7:02 pm
If we’re ready for some stats again, ponder this. As of today there are around 15,000 active covid cases in Canada. (Google search for “active covid cases canada”).

Even if every single one of these people was in the contagious phase and was not isolating, then, using simple math, 0.042% of the people in Canada have “the Virus” and thus could “infect” someone else right now.
——————
So, you gave us your analysis.
Let’s assume you are correct, what would you suggest our Leaders should do?
Open everything up again, schools, sports venues?
Just pretend there is no virus. No masks, no social distancing, no hand washing.
And just let the thing rip.

#89 Mint Julep on 08.05.20 at 7:39 pm

Thanks, Garth, for your advice over the years. In the midst of a pandemic and we’re loving life on our idyllic piece of property outside YYJ. Bought a small cabin with lake views a few years ago for a song. 500 square feet small but we make do! Housing prices back then, and today, continue to be INSANE.

We’re not FIRE followers, just minimalists who wisely and carefully save our money. $200K in the bank. No kids by choice. We will likely sell and go back to renting, as that seems to make the most sense financially.

No point to my post, other than to express my continued dismay and shock at those who think a house in the burbs for $750K is somehow a deal. I’m pretty sure wealth creation in real estate is in the rear-view mirror.

In the meantime, I’m on my own land, away from the crowds, can work from home..life’s grand.

#90 Zeb continued on 08.05.20 at 7:42 pm

Thanks for commenting to number 37 mike from Montreal
I have not owned the ETFs long enough to check my T3 and t5
to 54 I am going to be sick Thanks for commenting
Yes Iamgoimg to be sick I did check, when you made the comment A few days ago then I double checked then asked my neighbour and he had the same thing interest on the distribution date.
If you notice when BMO announcement every month they call it cash disbursement.
Anyway I wish I could post a picture.
No worries I hope I am wrong. Dividends are taxed better.

As for mask wearing very interesting comments
I personally feel the medical professionals and governments goofed big time by flip flopping on Mask wearing for safety. My opinion is that the government did not want to panic the citizens because we did not even have enough masks for our health care professionals.
I am not afraid of passing any germs but I firmly believe if everyone washed your hands, did not touch your face and keep six feet away and when you cannot stay six feet then wear a mask.
Remember that idiot from Alberta caused 1,000 people to self isolate and caused our number to spike in BC because he went to a bar knowing he was sick duh.
I also firmly believe the government totally goofed with all people entering Canada from last February should have been escorted to a government quarantine facility.
Then no one would have gotten sick. Very simple.
Have a great day!

#91 willworkforpickles on 08.05.20 at 7:46 pm

The cost of bullet-proof glass is the only thing that has gone up at an alarming rate down here in the last year.
North of the border – I still own one property. Any property in South Central Ontario and Muskoka’s is money and more money.
So for now just north of the D., 4 blocks across 8 mile the cost of living is very affordable. Property values don’t really appreciate much which is a plus. Other than with the ominous risk you could get your ass blown off pretty much any time of the day or night here it ain’t so bad.
I like Canada a lot though. It’s so friendly, I feel like I’m in a movie script when I’m there. Has a lot to do with why real estate is so expensive.

#92 PBrasseur on 08.05.20 at 7:47 pm

Same thing happened during the GFC: Easy and nearly free money trumps recession. This is the great Canadian economic mirage. Just keep on printing…

Works until it doesn’t.

#93 Flop... on 08.05.20 at 7:49 pm

More disruption in Melbourne construction being touted due to Covid, it mentions a migration west, meaning Adelaide and Perth, but Sydney and Brisbane seem more logical destinations to me.

It’s winter time there now, some parts got a dusting of snow yesterday, but at some construction sites in summer, it wasn’t unusual for them to be open 24 hours a day with 3 shifts to beat the heat, where permitted.

If this pandemic continues then the big developers will probably employ this tactic as soon as possible to get projects to the finish line.

Heap of work gets done with less people on site at one time.

Another reason that 24 hour projects can be efficient is that there is no wasted time locking up, turning everything off and such, just straight productivity.

Well, except for the hungover dude hiding in the cupboard.

I’ll translate the article, a Chippie in Australia is a carpenter, not someone who sells fish and chips…

M46BC

“Chippies, brickies and tilers are expected to abandon Melbourne and go west as Victoria’s 10-year building boom stalls over the next two years.

The state’s homebuilding economy growth will plunge from top of the nation to the bottom by 2022, according to the Housing Industry Association.”

#94 Stone on 08.05.20 at 7:51 pm

#53 kommykim on 08.05.20 at 5:35 pm
RE: Fear of infection. You wear a mask for any other purpose? – Garth

========================================

Wearing a mask doesn’t protect the wearer. It protects others in case the wearer is infected. So wearing a mask isn’t a sign of fear, but rather a sign of respect and caring for your fellow man.

Because you’re afraid of infecting others. My statement stands. Masks = fear. – Garth

———

I call it risk assessment, not fear. You do realize I get paid a lot of money to complete risk assessments. They don’t pay me 6 figures to be fearful. Just to use my noodle. If I made my assessments based on fear, I would have been fired eons ago.

Would you prefer we look like the US, India, Brazil? Yeah, definitely no fear (common sense) there. There was a time we drove cars without seat belts. Were seat belts introduced based on fear? No. They were introduced because they saved lives and reduced injuries. Does anyone gripe about that today?

People seem to like to use the word fear as a catch-all for other things (courtesy, common sense, assessing risk) when it’s just about having a loss of control. Thinking we’re in control of anything but ourselves is an illusion. Erring on the side of caution in the face of the unknown (yes, there’s plenty unknown about this virus/plague) helps you avoid a lot of problems. Just like a balanced and diversified ETF portfolio. +3.41% YTD.

#95 Macduff on 08.05.20 at 7:52 pm

Meanwhile, everyone who flunked high school science is a COVID-19 expert, while the true experts are considered charlatans. I grieve for the loss of rational thought by the human race.

#96 Cdn Mom on 08.05.20 at 7:54 pm

Mmmmhmmmm.

From WHO mask guidelines

“Masks made of cotton handkerchiefs alone should consist of at least 4 layers, but have achieved only 13% filtration efficiency.”

https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1279750/retrieve

13% filtration efficiency. Not effective enough to suffocate myself with 4 damned layers of fabric.

#97 Ed on 08.05.20 at 7:58 pm

I’m getting pretty tired of maskholes myself.

#98 Do we have all the facts on 08.05.20 at 8:01 pm

#27 ZEB

The average number of home sales in Canada during the last six months of 2019 was 41,135 sales per month.

Based on this activity the CREA projected home sales in 2020 to average 43,300 sales per month in 2020.

42,000 home sales were registered in January 2020 followed by 45,000 homes sales in February 2020.

Then the Covid 19 virus entered the picture and by April, 2020 homes sales dropped to 16,660.

Total homes sales registered in the first six months of 2020 were 211,425 sales, an average of 35,340 sales per month over the first six months of 2020.

The difference between a projection of 43,300 homes sales per month for 2020 and actual sales of 35,440 sales for the first six months of 2020 is 47,160 sales, or a potential of 84,000 fewer sales than originally projected for 2020.

This difference between actual home sales and projected home sales prior to Covid 19 is a clear indication that the lockdown had a significant impact on demand for housing that may increase by the end of the year.

Potential first time home buyers have definitely been affected by unemployment caused by the a Covid 19 lockdown and it is beginning to show.

#99 MF on 08.05.20 at 8:03 pm

#91 Macduff on 08.05.20 at 7:52 pm

-it’s easy to be a covid expert in 2020.

Course load: 1 grainy YouTube video from a quack author
Time commitment: 2 minutes 43 seconds.

Abra cadabra! You’re now a covid expert and are free to post all over social media your conspiracy theories!

MF

#100 espressobob on 08.05.20 at 8:03 pm

# 69 Trogan House

While I’m in agreement with herd emunity it stands to reason that a controlled burn is far better than a wildfire.

This is the problem no one can answer.

#101 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.05.20 at 8:05 pm

#81 Flop… on 08.05.20 at 7:13 pm
#97 kingston boy on 08.04.20 at 8:36 pm
@#88 Flop… on 08.04.20 at 7:59 pm

Guys I dont share many views with, I still want to hear what they have to say.( Faron and MF)
————-

you’re a strangely passive aggressive dude lol

////////////////

I don’t follow.

How is sticking up for a guy who shat on my dead friend, because I still believe he should be allowed to type his own words, passive aggressive…

M46BC

——

I prefer active aggressive responses. Just tell the next drongo to GFY…

#102 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.05.20 at 8:07 pm

@ 87 T:

I understand your irrational fear. Wear a mask, that’s fine. Just don’t make the rest of us wear it because you somehow think your going to run into on of the (quite substantially less) than the 15,000.

#103 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.05.20 at 8:09 pm

#82 MF on 08.05.20 at 7:18 pm
72 Leigh on 08.05.20 at 6:59 pm

Again with Sweden.

The results ARE in.

Sweden faired worse than other Scandinavian countries in terms of death, but better than Western European countries like the UK.

Reason? Culture. Swedes listened to their government and social distanced, wore masks etc.

That’s the Sweden story. Moving on

MF

——

Best not to make a call at half-time ol’ boy. Still lots of game left.

#104 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.05.20 at 8:10 pm

@#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.05.20 at 7:32 pm:

I am not in favour of any lockdown. That said, I can understand why it was done at the beginning. The stats are now in. We know who the vulnerable are. They or their guardians can protect them or they can protect themselves.

The rest of us need to get on with life.

#105 Abc123 on 08.05.20 at 8:17 pm

172 Abc123 on 08.05.20 at 3:43 pm
John pasallis calling you a ‘clown’ Garth On Twitter is rightfully overblown and unnecessarily insulting ,but your lack of response on your blog In defence is somewhat worriesome for you, especially viewed in the context of what seems to be an about face in your opinion of RE in the GTA.

Isn’t a strong rebuttal due ?

(a) I’ve said repeatedly 416 will not crash. (b) The realtor attack was childish and ad hominem. Unworthy of debate. – Garth
———

I totally agree with you about (b) . Totally on your side with regard and have no love for John or his self interested biases or his ilk.

However you have to admit that the tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of readers that have read this blog for over the many years have gathered the general notion that you were bearish on RE in
the two major city areas. You can’t hide your previous Blog posts over semantics or rationally argue against this simple observation.

Just saying

Conditions, facts and circumstances change. Only fools ignore these realities. For the last few years it has been obvious 416 would, as an entire market, not crash and I have said this repeatedly. Buy a house if you need one, and can afford it without gutting finances or imperilling your family’s future with debt. How is that remotely controversial or worthy of realtor scorn? – Garth

#106 Abc123 on 08.05.20 at 8:27 pm

#1 Rick Fast on 08.05.20 at 3:27 pm
Let the housing correction begin….. GTA to go down by 30 percent over 2 years
———-

Sure thing but only if covid kills two thirds of the worlds population.

50% down if the downtown core suffers a nuclear strike … but only 50

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.05.20 at 8:27 pm

@#88 Ponzie Possibilities
“And just let the thing rip.”
+++

Finally we have similar thought processes…

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.05.20 at 8:31 pm

@#102 I’m being sick
“I prefer active aggressive responses. Just tell the next drongo to GFY…”

+++
Drongo.
Geez havent heard that in a while.
Everytime I’d take the pizz out of my Aussie bud he’d call me a drongo baaassstaaaad.
It was well worth it.

#109 SoggyShorts on 08.05.20 at 8:35 pm

#96 Cdn Mom on 08.05.20 at 7:54 pm

13% filtration efficiency. Not effective enough to suffocate myself with 4 damned layers of fabric.

*******************
If wearing a mask “suffocates” you, you’re probably extremely weak and the virus would kill you so maybe you’re doomed either way.

https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/i1z89s/putting_on_10_masks_running_1_km_in_100f_heat/

#110 Leftover on 08.05.20 at 8:36 pm

Hate to be a downer, but doesn’t anyone understand the inequality engine that low rate mortgages represent?

It goes like this; decent job = approval for a big mortgage = bully bid for a house, etc, etc. The BoC is complicit and the Bank of Mom only makes it worse.

“So what” you say? Inequality is bad for everyone (read the Spirit Level) and it won’t end well, especially for anyone with accessible wealth. By accessible I mean accessible to CRA, buttressed by political expedience.

That house of yours that you thought was going to fund a comfy retirement is a sitting duck. Quack quack.

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.05.20 at 8:36 pm

#104 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.05.20 at 8:10 pm
@#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.05.20 at 7:32 pm:

I am not in favour of any lockdown. That said, I can understand why it was done at the beginning. The stats are now in. We know who the vulnerable are. They or their guardians can protect them or they can protect themselves.

The rest of us need to get on with life.
—————–
Again you’re evading my question.
What would you do if you were the Prime Minister?

#112 Teetime on 08.05.20 at 8:40 pm

#73 & #75 Nonplused
I found so much sound logic in your comment today, good take on the big financial picture, tax impacts and how it plays out over time.

Ditto on the mask comment. To add to this I worked for a Japanese sub and every so often the ex pats would wear masks to work, then I knew there was a flu or cold in their family and it was out of consideration. That’s how I look at wearing a mask, and feel no fear. Also fortunate to have golf as a pastime and a dog to walk sans masks.

#113 Flop... on 08.05.20 at 8:44 pm

The thing I find curious about the Pasalis rant on Twitter, is he doesn’t seem to take into account the second part of the transaction.

He talks about people selling houses and renting well before the peak, but doesn’t take into account people investing any sort of windfall from the sale of the property.

Of course if you took that money and let it sit in the bank for 13 years, then yes, you have been punished, but I’ve never seen that advice offered here…

M46BC

#114 Rico on 08.05.20 at 8:44 pm

“Was the health care system overwhelmed where you are last month when masks were not mandatory? – Garth”

Were you locked down last month (either by mandate or self isolating)?
Have you looked at Florida?

#115 willworkforpickles on 08.05.20 at 8:55 pm

#99 MF
…you refer to #91 in your last post…you must be mistaken. You talkin to me ?

#116 tbone on 08.05.20 at 9:03 pm

Re ZEB and ZWB

I used to own ZWB , but i sold it a while ago and just bought CM instead when it was 78.00 . Pays same dividend and i dont have to pay the MER .
I now own 5 bank stocks rather than the etf when i added CM to my portfolio .

#117 Ejy on 08.05.20 at 9:07 pm

When people say you “should wear a mask” and cite circular reasoning, and become emotional about it, you are dealing with religion, not objective scientific reasoning backed by study, and, yes, there are many scientists who are promoting religion.

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.05.20 at 9:29 pm

@#111 Ponzie Politics
“What would you do if you were the Prime Minister?”

++++

I’d only talk out of one side of my face.

#119 T on 08.05.20 at 9:31 pm

#102 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.05.20 at 8:07 pm
@ 87 T:

I understand your irrational fear. Wear a mask, that’s fine. Just don’t make the rest of us wear it because you somehow think your going to run into on of the (quite substantially less) than the 15,000.

—————

I’m far from irrational. All it takes is a few spreaders to quickly get the numbers moving well into the wrong direction and negate everything Canada has accomplished in controlling this thus far.

#120 Tudval on 08.05.20 at 9:43 pm

The detached homes in Toronto are undervalued. Last 5 years, gold went up, stocks up, bonds up, condo prices up but SFD prices were flat and in some areas down. You know everybody should want one and they do – I see huge number of cars driving by the house for sale across the street. Yet buyers are still tentative… I suppose builders and renovators still feeling the sting from government intervention three years ago. Regulators drove investors to the easy proposition of buying a condo and renting it out, no headaches. But tables are turning as we speak. At first slowly, then faster and faster. No more intervention for years to come as the economy recovers and guaranteed scarcity. 13% unemployment is meaningless in this segment, these people are not in the market for a SFD, though they may
add insignificantly to the supply. The decoupling of condos and SFD in Toronto happened about 10 years ago – it went in both directions and is reversing polarity again.

#121 Freedom First on 08.05.20 at 9:46 pm

Thank you Garth, for your unwavering dedication & strength to continue to continue writing your Blog based on facts, truth, and no fear.

Also, I have a great appreciation for the blog dogs who aspire to follow Garth’s example he steadfastly maintains. You know who you are.

Freedom First

#122 Joe on 08.05.20 at 9:47 pm

I even wear a face mask in my house that appreciated 500% since 2005.

#123 Drinking on 08.05.20 at 9:49 pm

#117 Ejy
Huh?? Personally I am just watching the stats; so far seems to be working for those areas that wear them. Check out certain parts of Europe, Florida, California, hell the rest of the world especially middle east and the southern hemisphere and trust Garth’s logic on preparing for hard times.

#124 Stephen on 08.05.20 at 10:00 pm

Masks are just a security blanket for people who need that sort of thing.

#125 Stone on 08.05.20 at 10:01 pm

#124 Stone on 08.05.20 at 9:57 pm
#94 Stone on 08.05.20 at 7:51 pm
#53 kommykim on 08.05.20 at 5:35 pm
RE: Fear of infection. You wear a mask for any other purpose? – Garth

========================================

Wearing a mask doesn’t protect the wearer. It protects others in case the wearer is infected. So wearing a mask isn’t a sign of fear, but rather a sign of respect and caring for your fellow man.

Because you’re afraid of infecting others. My statement stands. Masks = fear. – Garth

———

I call it risk assessment, not fear. You do realize I get paid a lot of money to complete risk assessments. They don’t pay me 6 figures to be fearful. Just to use my noodle. If I made my assessments based on fear, I would have been fired eons ago.

Would you prefer we look like the US, India, Brazil? Yeah, definitely no fear (common sense) there. There was a time we drove cars without seat belts. Were seat belts introduced based on fear? No. They were introduced because they saved lives and reduced injuries. Does anyone gripe about that today?

People seem to like to use the word fear as a catch-all for other things (courtesy, common sense, assessing risk) when it’s just about having a loss of control. Thinking we’re in control of anything but ourselves is an illusion. Erring on the side of caution in the face of the unknown (yes, there’s plenty unknown about this virus/plague) helps you avoid a lot of problems. Just like a balanced and diversified ETF portfolio. +3.41% YTD.

———

I forgot to add one thing (the anti-maskers will love this to the point their heads explode):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxaZxpNTm8A

Oh Yoda, you’re the best!!!

———

Oop, wrong Youtube video. It skipped to the next one when I copied it. Here’s the right one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFnFr-DOPf8

#126 Trojan House on 08.05.20 at 10:06 pm

#94 Stone on 08.05.20 at 7:51 pm

“Were seat belts introduced based on fear? No. They were introduced because they saved lives and reduced injuries.”

Yes, but do they save every life and prevent injuries to everyone? No they don’t, so here’s the analogy: Wearing a seat belt is not 100% effective at preventing death, therefore, wearing a mask will not be 100% effective at preventing death. But here’s the rub – studies have actually shown that, while they may not prevent every death, seat belts can potentially save a life depending on a lot of circumstances (for example, they prevent you from going the through the windshield), however, all the studies up until this whole Covid started showed that cloth and surgical masks were not effective at preventing the spread of a virus (in the case of the studies, a flu virus).

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/commentary-masks-all-covid-19-not-based-sound-data

That being said, even though seat belts can save lives, the fact still remains that people still die even when wearing one and you don’t see governments banning us from driving cars, but on the other hand, governments are now trying their hardest from preventing everyone from getting infected from the virus by locking us in our homes and closing everything down. How is this even logical?

#127 A reasonable explanation, I'm sure... on 08.05.20 at 10:07 pm

Hey TurnerNation, I’m sure this is old news, but I was forwarded this today;

https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/about

#128 kommykim on 08.05.20 at 10:09 pm

RE:#71 Trojan House on 08.05.20 at 6:56 pm
#53 kommykim on 08.05.20 at 5:35 pm
How’s that koolaid tasting kommykim? Although coming from you, I’m not surprised.

========================================

Looks like you were triggered by my tongue in cheek alias. Must be a Trumper.

#129 Stone on 08.05.20 at 10:11 pm

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.05.20 at 9:29 pm
@#111 Ponzie Politics
“What would you do if you were the Prime Minister?”

++++

I’d only talk out of one side of my face.

———

Sorry to drop the bombshell but that’s impossible. The only way is to talk out of your ass.

It’s in the training manual. I swear.

#130 Investx on 08.05.20 at 10:15 pm

“Maybe politicians who really cared about public health would ban smoking and vaping. Tobacco = 45,000 dead Canadians per year. Covid = 8,900 fatalities. – Garth”

Lung cancer is not infectious.

Second hand smoke? Anyway I thought part of this discussion was about not overwhelming the health care system. Lots of sucking and blowing going on here today. – Garth

#131 Ryan H on 08.05.20 at 10:20 pm

“Fear of infection. You wear a mask for any other purpose? – Garth“

Dig deeper, double down, Garth.

BCCDC survey showed most people wear masks to protect other high risk members of their community, not due to selfishness or personal fear.

#132 Midnights on 08.05.20 at 10:33 pm

DELETED

#133 Midnights on 08.05.20 at 10:40 pm

Councils can BULLDOZE contaminated homes and as a last resort to stop second wave of coronavirus

https://www.trendswide.com/councils-can-bulldoze-contaminated-homes-and-as-a-last-resort-to-stop-second-wave-of-coronavirus/

#134 MF on 08.05.20 at 10:42 pm

“Maybe politicians who really cared about public health would ban smoking and vaping. Tobacco = 45,000 dead Canadians per year. Covid = 8,900 fatalities. – Garth”

-I don’t know if that’s such a great analogy.

Politicians did ban smoking indoors in public places, so people didn’t have to be needlessly exposed. It was a good move.

Also, by your logic, we should ban sugar and saturated fats from foods. The risks are similar to smoking. They are both bad health decisions that accumulate over time. Fault lies with the individual for choosing to smoke or eat junk continuously, for a long time (decades), and risk their health. Everyone accepts the idea that those that suffer from smoking or junk food related illnesses made a conscious decision and knew the risks.

When has a cigarette killed someone in 2 weeks like Covid? Never. When has someone passed away just by being in a room with someone who just smoked or ate junk food? Never. Has anyone ever consciously decided to get sick? Never (unless tomorrow is Monday but that’s different).

MF

#135 Midnights on 08.05.20 at 10:45 pm

DELETED

#136 Michael in-north-york on 08.05.20 at 10:55 pm

Wearing a mask is not surrending to fear, it is a simple and relatively low-hassle precaution. More people with masks = lower transmission rate = lesser risk of another surge = lesser risk of a new lockdown.

A second wave might happen but that’s not a given. Many countries manage to keep their infection rate low. UK is actually doing fine right now, Germany sees a mild increase. Full-scale second wave is happening in Spain, Israel, and in one province of Australia. France is at risk but not quite there yet.

U.S. is not in the second wave. They are still in their first wave that they never extinguished, their recent spike is a part of that first wave. Same can be said about Brazil and India.

A vaccine will help even if it is not 100% effective, and even if every vaccine batch only works for a few months. Again, lower transmission rate = lesser risk of a spike = less damage to the GDP.

#137 Papa Wilson on 08.05.20 at 11:11 pm

Sometimes I wonder how we even lived in 1990. I was at the kitchen table with my granddaughter this afternoon playing Candy Land and she asked me how developers updated games if nobody was online. I told her they didn’t. If the game sucked, it sucked forever.

A single tear rolled down her cheek. She got up and said she didn’t want to play anymore. She’s three.

#138 april on 08.05.20 at 11:14 pm

#111 – Now the reports are saying young people between 20 and 40 are getting infected and many being hospitalized….so don’t think your safe just because your under 60.

#139 whiplash on 08.05.20 at 11:25 pm

So, you wear a mask? Around your neck, like an arm band, on top of your head, carry it, if it’s on your face does it just cover your mouth, do you wash your hands or sanitize before/after taking it off, do you touch the outside of the mask and adjust it fifty time without washing/sanitizing. Congratulations, chances are it’s contaminated with something and it may not be Covid-19. If one is convinced this is the way to go pretend it’s a condom, put it on a and leave it alone, chances are your not going to pick up anything that is nasty!

#140 Michael in-north-york on 08.05.20 at 11:25 pm

#110 Leftover on 08.05.20 at 8:36 pm

Hate to be a downer, but doesn’t anyone understand the inequality engine that low rate mortgages represent?

It goes like this; decent job = approval for a big mortgage = bully bid for a house, etc, etc. The BoC is complicit and the Bank of Mom only makes it worse.

“So what” you say? Inequality is bad for everyone (read the Spirit Level) and it won’t end well, especially for anyone with accessible wealth. By accessible I mean accessible to CRA, buttressed by political expedience.

That house of yours that you thought was going to fund a comfy retirement is a sitting duck. Quack quack.

—–

My next statement will be unpopular here but I will make it anyway.

Inequality cannot be eliminated in the human society made of individuals who retain their free will.

Elimination of the inequality based on monetary wealth would shutter the position of many individuals / families / groups who are at the top of the ladder today. That would be quickly replaced by a new hierarchy, based on the administrative power.

People / families / groups who control the new administration and can downplay the book price of the stuff they actually own, avoid registering it altogether, or secure personal use of stuff that’s technically owned by the state or by non-profits, would become new top dogs.

Through the human history, systems of that kind are much older and much more prevalent than the modern capitalism.

#141 NSNG on 08.05.20 at 11:46 pm

#170 MF on 08.05.20 at 3:14 pm

154 NSNG on 08.05.20 at 10:56

So no proof other than some hopes and dreams. Basically nothing.

Got it.

MF

==================================

Ha! Ha!

A hardcore leftist demanding stats. How ironic.

We do know many municipalities are starving for cash. They also have many workers sitting home collecting full pay thanks to the federal government. I wonder how many of them expect they will come back to a job? I also wonder how many of them can’t possibly envision government going bankrupt?

Sooner or later the stats will show up as to who is doing the buying.

Don’t bother answering. This conversation is over

#142 TurnerNation on 08.05.20 at 11:52 pm

Save this post. I will.
Toronto’s sports stadiums will remain closed until 2021. Hey they’ve banished the Blue Jays team from the country even. In 2021 they will re-open as Mass needle centers.
People will be lined up, masked and 6-6-6 feet apart.
By then they will have had 1.5 year of training and compliance in this. Second nature. Filthy unclean animals we are. No longer safe.

It will be a Mass alright. Baptism by plunge – the needle plunging into their arm. At the end of the tunnel they will cast awary their sodden face masks. Free again. Clensed for ever with the sacrament. Eternal life.
But what to do with the others, the unclean and the non believers? It will start with a social media post. Who liked it/who did not. Then casual inquiries of friends, family.
Emboldened it will turn to demands on IG:
#houseparty tonight. Do not show up of you are not #vaxxed. #wine. #blessed.

The unclean will be a new Caste. This is Kanada, home of the Caste systems. Yep the elites dialed us back 100 years.

#143 buy-curious on 08.05.20 at 11:53 pm

That’s what real estate (and offspring) does. The illusion of security.

#144 Sheesh on 08.05.20 at 11:56 pm

I wear a mask because it seems to be the responsible thing to do given the current evidence. And also because it’s NOT A BIG FREAKIN’ DEAL, but I digress.

It’s a shame that many posters here have no idea how science actually works. Seriously people, do some research about science and the scientific method before you dismiss expert advice because ‘they don’t know what they’re talking about’. Or remain ignorant, if that feels safer.

#145 TurnerNation on 08.06.20 at 12:00 am

#51 Dolce Vita you are in the heart of things. How many sick/dead/recovered people do you and your friends, family know?

#146 Tim123 on 08.06.20 at 12:50 am

I am going to go out on a limb and predict a major correction in housing. The big variable for how big the correction is going to be is dependent on the time to discover a vaccine, manufacture it and then distribute it to the population.
I think most people don’t think about retirement just paying off their house. I suppose they can sell their homes and move into an apartment.

#147 Han Pritcher on 08.06.20 at 1:06 am

When the average home price reaches 11 times the average family income, it time to start burning your politicians and bankers along with their families.

Where are the so called military heros in our time of need?

Usless tools in uniform.

#148 Bob Dog on 08.06.20 at 1:33 am

DELETED

#149 Jane24 on 08.06.20 at 2:08 am

Well time for an update on my AirBnB on the south coast of England. This is a detached 3 bed bungalow with a private garden that we use to live in but since we had no reason to sell it we listed it with AirBnB.

As Garth said crickets from March to June due to lockdown but now very busy from July to Sept with staycations. What will happen after that I have no idea.

The big news is the govt support grants that we have received for our AirBnB. They total £12,200 or $21,000 Cdn. I am very grateful for the support but this amount is far in excess of what I have lost. I guess it goes into perspective once we know what the Fall and Winter brings as maybe the answer will be nothing again.

So Canada is not the only country sloshing the money around and if you are going to run a AirBnB make sure it is fully detached in the suburbs with private outside space and 4 car parking!

#150 Nonplused on 08.06.20 at 3:11 am

“Maybe politicians who really cared about public health would ban smoking and vaping. Tobacco = 45,000 dead Canadians per year. Covid = 8,900 fatalities. – Garth”

Cheese and crackers Garth vaping is not smoking and is a good tool for reducing smoking. Maybe there will be negative associated affects discovered with vaping at some point but so far all the anecdotal evidence I’ve heard and read is that the lungs clear right up in about a year when someone switches to vaping.

Remember, the enemy of the good is the perfect.

Also stop quoting covid stats that haven’t been annualized, and remember we are still in the 2nd inning. I can’t verify all the data just yet, but supposedly I am getting a power point tomorrow that shows when adjusted for population Quebec leads the world in covid deaths behind only New York. Canada as a whole is somewhat larger than Texas population wise and has about as many deaths. I can’t confirm these numbers today so I will eat crow tomorrow if they turn out to not be true. I trust the source, but I haven’t seen the data. But using Google I can confirm:

Total covid deaths Texas: 8149
Total covid deaths Canada: 8962
Total population Texas: 29 million
Total population Canada: 37.6 million

If we are doing better, it ain’t by much.

#151 Nonplused on 08.06.20 at 3:19 am

#112 Teetime

Thanks. And enjoy your tee time. Non-contact sport after all.

#152 Nonplused on 08.06.20 at 3:24 am

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.05.20 at 9:29 pm
@#111 Ponzie Politics
“What would you do if you were the Prime Minister?”

++++

I’d only talk out of one side of my face.

——————-

I think it is horrible to make fun of a disability even if you disagree politically. But that man you allude to is probably the prime minister. Pulling the strings like the Wizard of Oz.

#153 conan on 08.06.20 at 5:10 am

I think wearing masks are just as much about economics as they are about helping to contain the disease. We just went 350 billion in the hole this year, and even if masks are just one percent effective, then that’s a saving of 3.5 billion dollars.

I put it to you here that masks are more than one percent effective, and the savings to the economy are huge.

#154 Dr Tory on 08.06.20 at 6:49 am

Thanks to all bylaw observers here. Remember to put your used masks in the bio hazard waste bins I have provided.

#155 Sail Away on 08.06.20 at 7:07 am

#144 Han Pritcher on 08.06.20 at 1:06 am

Where are the so called military heros in our time of need?

—————-

They were deployed but couldn’t find the Covids.

#156 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.06.20 at 7:13 am

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.05.20 at 8:36 pm snorts:

“#104 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.05.20 at 8:10 pm
@#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.05.20 at 7:32 pm:

I am not in favour of any lockdown. That said, I can understand why it was done at the beginning. The stats are now in. We know who the vulnerable are. They or their guardians can protect them or they can protect themselves.

The rest of us need to get on with life.
—————–
Again you’re evading my question.
What would you do if you were the Prime Minister?”

————————————————————

I’m not, nor will I ever be Prime Minister so your question is a non-sequitur. My opinion as to what we should do now, in the present is stated above.

I’m not a policy maker and the only policy I’m interested in setting is one I set for myself. You know, personal responsibility.

#157 Sail Away on 08.06.20 at 7:13 am

#149 Nonplused on 08.06.20 at 3:24 am
#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.05.20 at 9:29 pm
@#111 Ponzie Politics

“What would you do if you were the Prime Minister?”

————-

I’d only talk out of one side of my face.

————-

I think it is horrible to make fun of a disability even if you disagree politically. But that man you allude to is probably the prime minister. Pulling the strings like the Wizard of Oz.

————-

It’s perfectly fine, encouraged even, to mock moral and ethical disabilities.

Our hero DJT called it long ago:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/6252883/trump-trudeau-two-faced-nato-gossip/amp/

#158 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.06.20 at 7:21 am

#130 Ryan H on 08.05.20 at 10:20 pm sez, smugly:

“Fear of infection. You wear a mask for any other purpose? – Garth“

Dig deeper, double down, Garth.

BCCDC survey showed most people wear masks to protect other high risk members of their community, not due to selfishness or personal fear.”
————————————————————-
What are they protecting other high risk people from?

Less than 0.042% of people have the active virus in Canada right now. Less than 15,000 people country wide.

If you don’t have the virus, you are “protecting” no one. It’s all about fear and feelz.

#159 torontorocks on 08.06.20 at 8:19 am

What boggles my mind over this whole plandemic is the response to it. I don’t know if this is because you’ve got a democratic surge to try and topple trump in the white house (2020 is an election year) and all these people getting in line with who knows what kind of fatalistic response to a virus. Where was the similar response during our last pandemic, Swine Flu in 2009? I don’t remember lock down or moving through the decimation of total lives and big government (ala the democrats and fiberals) like this? or was it because Obama was president?

#160 Sara on 08.06.20 at 8:30 am

#130 “Maybe politicians who really cared about public health would ban smoking and vaping. Tobacco = 45,000 dead Canadians per year. Covid = 8,900 fatalities. – Garth”

Lung cancer is not infectious.

Second hand smoke? Anyway I thought part of this discussion was about not overwhelming the health care system. Lots of sucking and blowing going on here today. – Garth
————————————————————–

Garth, you still do not get it. COVID has the potential to overwhelm the healthcare system if too many come down with it AT THE SAME TIME. How does that compare to the health effects of smoking whether first or second hand? Answer: it does not because health issues related to smoking are spread out over time, much like what we are trying to do with COVID by wearing masks and social distancing.

But the virus is not overwhelming the system. Less than one half of one per cent of Canadians are infected, which is a great achievement. Covid will eventually recede or be dosed. And 45,00 people will still die every year because we condone tobacco. Society is hypocritical, and currently permeated by irrational fear. We don’t care so much when others perish, but when we’re potentially at risk, we freak out. Humans, 0. Dogs, 1. – Garth

#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.06.20 at 8:31 am

@#149 Jane24
“Well time for an update on my AirBnB on the south coast of England. This is a detached 3 bed bungalow with a private garden that we use to live in but since we had no reason to sell it we listed it with AirBnB.”
+++

Oh goddy.
We get another update of the Lifestyles of the Rich and Boorish.
Since you’re not staying in rainy old Blighty this Summer which of the other Estates are you deigning to occupy with your exalted presence?
The Italian Villa( er sorry the pallazzo/palace….how gouache of me.)?
Or the Newest acquisition?
The French Villa you were hinting at acquiring a month or so ago..
We cant keep up with the endless Lifestyles of the Rich and Boorish.
So confusing.
Please update our info .
We breathlessly await the latest bragging from the south of Europe.

#162 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.06.20 at 8:34 am

@#152 Nonplused
“But that man you allude to is probably the prime minister.”
++++

Jean Chretien has returned to politics?
Well at least he hired a competent Finance Minister……

#163 Sara on 08.06.20 at 8:34 am

Bytor, you have no idea how dumb you come across in your posts do you? Not surprising though I guess.

#164 Dharma Bum on 08.06.20 at 8:37 am

Stock markets were up yesterday.

Yayyyyy! Yippee! Woohoo!

And now, back to mask talk.

Here’s mine (I wore it while making a bank withdrawal):

https://shop.rapbay.com/images/products/316025.jpg

#165 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.06.20 at 8:47 am

@162 Sara- Care to refute the stats or are you here to whine and complain?

#166 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.06.20 at 8:50 am

@#149 JaneTwofer

gauche not gouache

Spellcheck…..

A song just for Jane.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0g4GAN54og

#167 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.06.20 at 8:54 am

#152 Nonplused on 08.06.20 at 3:24 am
#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.05.20 at 9:29 pm
@#111 Ponzie Politics
“What would you do if you were the Prime Minister?”

++++

I’d only talk out of one side of my face.

——————-

I think it is horrible to make fun of a disability even if you disagree politically. But that man you allude to is probably the prime minister. Pulling the strings like the Wizard of Oz.

——

I really don’t think crowdie was referencing Chretien… At least my mind didn’t go there until you wrote this. I believe he was talking about the idiom of talking out of both sides of your mouth… meaning to say different and contradictory things to different people, so that people are left unsure or confused.

#168 Sara on 08.06.20 at 9:01 am

#159, Garth, so, it makes sense to compare the potential of COVID-19 to overwhelm hospitals with the potential of smoking to overwhelm hospitals? No, it does not, so why do you do it?

Are our hospitals overwhelmed with Covid cases? – Garth

#169 KNOW IT ALL on 08.06.20 at 9:02 am

1 Million DEAD worldwide by end of month!

The survivors are left with crippling side-effects. (Lungs torn apart, heart problems, sensory issues, missing limbs)

Don’t take COVID lightly.

Your health and the health if your family and friends should be your main priority in life.

Money is useless without your health.

Stay safe!!

#170 Sail Away on 08.06.20 at 9:06 am

#162 Sara on 08.06.20 at 8:34 am

Bytor, you have no idea how dumb you come across in your posts do you? Not surprising though I guess.

————–

Sara, can you speak, or is your mouth adapted purely for spewing venom?

#171 Not! on 08.06.20 at 9:10 am

“The masks everyone now sports are visible symbols of a surrender to fear”

That statement is inaccurate on a number of levels.

#172 David Hawke on 08.06.20 at 9:17 am

#144 Sheesh on 08.05.20 at 11:56 pm
I wear a mask because it seems to be the responsible thing to do given the current evidence. And also because it’s NOT A BIG FREAKIN’ DEAL, but I digress.

It’s a shame that many posters here have no idea how science actually works. Seriously people, do some research about science and the scientific method before you dismiss expert advice because ‘they don’t know what they’re talking about’. Or remain ignorant, if that feels safer.

Actually, I do, scientific reports are biased towards the views of those paying for the report!!!

#173 Between genX and millennials on 08.06.20 at 9:19 am

Geez Garth, #19 comment?

I’m wearing a mask all the time. It’s not because of fear. It’s an attempt at “we’re all in this together”.

Masks don’t protect me from others. They protect others from me.

one of the funniest things about this pandemic is watching people deal with masks. The further right your politics are, the more you resent pandemic control measures like masks. Hilarious. All us snorting little piggies have encountered the first problem in our lifetime that you can’t solve with individualism, only with collective action. Makes right wingers go insane.

#174 IHCTD9 on 08.06.20 at 9:21 am

#150 Nonplused on 08.06.20 at 3:11 am
Cheese and crackers Garth vaping is not smoking and is a good tool for reducing smoking. Maybe there will be negative associated affects discovered with vaping at some point but so far all the anecdotal evidence I’ve heard and read is that the lungs clear right up in about a year when someone switches to vaping.

———-

Years ago, I had developed a persistent congestion and cough and decided it was time to quit the ciggies. The vapes were new at the time, and a guy in the office quit via an e-cig, so I got one too.

Cough/congestion was 100% gone in 2 weeks, all the things a guy who goes cold turkey off cigs is expected to experience transpired while I used the e-cig, less the withdrawal symptoms.

IMHO, these things are a miracle for smokers who want to quit, Trudeau should be handing them out for free like CERB money. Vaping likely isn’t as safe as not vaping, but they are 110% safer than tobacco, and getting off the vape is a lot easier for most than going CT off cigs right off the bat.

If any dogs here want to quit, this is the way to go. Seriously, a miracle. After a month or two, the memory of smoking fades, and the psychological attachment goes with it. All you’ll have to deal with is the cravings when you quit the vape, and that’s over in about a week.

#175 Captain Uppa on 08.06.20 at 9:24 am

What I am really interested in now and following daily is the great exodus out of major city centers.

This was reported today:

“The number of signed contracts for co-ops and condos in Manhattan dropped 57% in July compared with a year ago, according to a report from Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman.”

“The number of unsold apartments is now at the highest level in almost a decade, according to Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel.”

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/manhattan-apartment-deals-plunge-57percent-suburban-real-estate-surges.html

#176 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.06.20 at 9:35 am

More $ Billions for struggling jobs in La Belle Province I suppose…..

https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN2521GR

#177 Oakville to Burlington on 08.06.20 at 9:52 am

Garth- Any idea if this Tangerine rate includes purchases over 1 million and uninsured?

#178 Sail Away on 08.06.20 at 10:02 am

#173 IHCTD9 on 08.06.20 at 9:21 am

If any dogs here want to quit, this is the way to go. Seriously, a miracle. After a month or two, the memory of smoking fades, and the psychological attachment goes with it. All you’ll have to deal with is the cravings when you quit the vape, and that’s over in about a week.

—————

But the memories! Ah, those are yours forever.

Nothing like a cigar by the campfire.

#179 Papabear on 08.06.20 at 10:16 am

I hate to say it, but this comment section is likely more hazardous to your health than covid or smoking. I’m going to get an ulcer from all the stressful arguing and posturing. Advice to you all, stop reading this trash and enjoy the summer or find a good book. Maybe even stop reading the blog for a little while too, it won’t hurt you to leave the divisiveness for a few weeks.

While I appreciate some of the rationale posts here, it pains me to see my fellow countrymen so laisse-faire about a public health crisis. I’m seeing the trend to a more American view on issues, where “If it doesn’t solve the problem 100% then why bother” attitude. Even Garth’s arguable word choice today, seemingly written to bait people in the comments is upsetting. Whether pro mask or not, I would suggest now is a good time for everyone to improve their own hygiene since it’s a good practice in general. And it’s a wonderful thing to teach the younger generations too.

It also seems that half of the commenters, regular posters or not, seem to be skewing 60+ years old based on their grammar, use of ellipsis, odd sentence structure and growing senility in ideas (TurnerNation, DolceVita, etc). Maybe those people need to stop posting so much and read some varied news sources or interesting books. Fear mongering or prodding at people who aren’t in as fortunate a situation as you doesn’t make you look smart.

Anyway, my point:
A. Encourage good hygiene in yourself and your kids.
B. Take some time away from this comment section and even this blog, for your own mental health.
C. We’re Canadians, act like it.

#180 drongo on 08.06.20 at 11:18 am

@#178 Papabear on 08.06.20 at 10:16 am
I hate to say it, but this comment section is likely more hazardous to your health than covid or smoking. I’m going to get an ulcer from all the stressful arguing and posturing. Advice to you all, stop reading this trash and enjoy the summer or find a good book. Maybe even stop reading the blog for a little while too, it won’t hurt you to leave the divisiveness for a few weeks.

While I appreciate some of the rationale posts here, it pains me to see my fellow countrymen so laisse-faire about a public health crisis. I’m seeing the trend to a more American view on issues, where “If it doesn’t solve the problem 100% then why bother” attitude. Even Garth’s arguable word choice today, seemingly written to bait people in the comments is upsetting. Whether pro mask or not, I would suggest now is a good time for everyone to improve their own hygiene since it’s a good practice in general. And it’s a wonderful thing to teach the younger generations too.

It also seems that half of the commenters, regular posters or not, seem to be skewing 60+ years old based on their grammar, use of ellipsis, odd sentence structure and growing senility in ideas (TurnerNation, DolceVita, etc). Maybe those people need to stop posting so much and read some varied news sources or interesting books. Fear mongering or prodding at people who aren’t in as fortunate a situation as you doesn’t make you look smart.
————————
good points.
when i’m feeling to good about life i come here to the comments section. brings me down a notch.

#181 unbalanced on 08.06.20 at 11:18 am

Government don’t care. Cigs and booze bring in revenue. Plain and simple. Look at the taxes they bring in. Canabis is a flop so far, but wait. The older you get is just a burden to the health care system. Why is the government so concerned about casinos on native land. They want their revenue…plain and simple. 2nd hand that

#182 Oakville to Burlington on 08.06.20 at 12:59 pm

Tangerine update! Called in today and was offered 1.94% 5 year fixed on an uninsured first mortgage with 25% prepayment options! Free money with 2% inflation!! Where do I sign?!

#183 MaskArade on 08.06.20 at 3:32 pm

The mask police is out in full force, wear one or else…., just like the guy driving 99km/hr in the left lane, everyone needs to slow down because the speed limit is 100, I’m selfrecognized policeman….loony toons

#184 Numbers on 08.06.20 at 4:10 pm

Have you compared July 2020 stats to a monthly average for 2019 spring sale season? Would be interesting to compare.

#185 MDQ on 08.06.20 at 10:48 pm

Ah! The luxury of complaining about freedom and having superiority about wearing a mask.

That is the paradox of this bug, you have to suffer to respect it.

You should consider yourself lucky to live in a place that is under control such as NS.

Im sure you’ll feel very different if you were a carioca or ecuatoriano.

Just wear the damn thing, not a big deal… Or is it?
.