Simple

Over the last decade we’ve endured much.

Credit crisis recovery, US debt ceiling panic, oil price collapse, Trump, trade wars, protectionism, Brexit, Bitcoin, Hong Kong, record debt and now the first global pandemic in a century. Stock markets swooned in a serious way four times. Interest rates collapsed. GICs pay 1%. Houses are inflated. Wages got stuck. Lots of people did stupid things. Eight million on the dole and a million unable to pay their house loans when the Covid storm rolled in gave evidence of that.

Through it, this blog has told you the best path was to stay balanced, ignore what you cannot afford, eschew debt, avoid putting everything in one asset, try not to be a cowboy flipping stocks, chasing bullion or crypto, be diversified, reduce tax, stay invested and understand that real risk means running out of money, not losing it. Alas, few listened. Human nature almost always leads us astray. We chase houses. Think short-term. Borrow too much. Get investment advice from moms and brothers-in-law. And we’re complete slaves to emotion. Fear. Greed. Envy. Nesting. FOMO.

But if dogs were in charge of finances, they’d just do what works, and stay at it. Simple. Results are all that matter when you don’t have email and have to pee outside.

Why have I yammered at you for the past ten years about a balanced and diversified portfolio? Because despite all the turmoil and scary stuff we’ve been through, this has proven itself with an average annual return of just a little over 7%. That doesn’t mean seven points a year, every year since there have been times of decline (it lost 3% in 2018, for example). But net worth is built over time and, like dogs know, by doing proven things repeatedly.

Time for a refresher and an update on asset allocation.

First a B&D portfolio generally means 60% in growth stuff and 40% in safer things. The logic is that when stocks sell off in a sweat (like when the virus hit) that other assets will rise in value as money seeks refuge (like bonds). This is exactly what occurred in 2020.

But wait, you cry, interest rates have tanked and bonds pay nothing. Why on earth would you own any?

Because they go up in capital value when stocks fall, thereby slicing volatility. Nobody owns bonds any more to collect interest. That’s so 80s. They’re shock absorbers – with the added bonus that (as stated) when rates shrink the value of bonds plumps. And remember, a good portfolio doesn’t just contain pay-nothing government debt. It also has exposure to provincial and corporate bonds, adding some yield.

But the real payers in the fixed-income part of the portfolio are preferred shares, with a dividend now in the 5-6% range, plus reduced tax. Rate reset prefs are interest-sensitive, too, so when the cost of money falls, their value drops. These days they’re cheap to buy and still churn out that nice return. As central banks inevitably increase rates in future years, these will surely hand over a capital gain.

Growth assets mean equities (plus some real estate investment trusts). But not individual stocks, since most people can’t pick well nor stomach the volatility owning a handful of companies brings. Hubris, vanity and too much testosterone leads many people into thinking they’re smarter than Mr. Market and can pick a few ‘winners’. They can’t. It’s a guess. And guessing is gambling, which is not the same as investing. Don’t.

Better to own whole markets through broad-based equity ETFs – exchange-traded funds. They are cheap and liquid. Far superior to mutual funds. And don’t fall for home-country bias, keeping too much of your growth assets in Canada. Year/year the US market has delivered a 14% return while Bay Street is up just 3%. A good portfolio is a global one – North America, Europe, Asia, emerging markets.

There are other complexities, depending on how much you have to invest. Large and small corporate exposure, for example (small caps will likely lead the economic rebound, as usual). Sector exposure (like health care). US and Canadian-hedged funds (try to stay at least 20% US$-denominated). And don’t have too many positions. Fewer than 20, for sure, even if you have a couple of million in the can.

The current preferred weightings in a 60/40 portfolio are 26% in a variety of bond funds, 13% in preferreds, 20% in Canadian growth assets (including 5% in REITs), 22% in US equities and 18% in international stocks. Of course, try to move things around for tax-efficiency between a non-registered account (dividends and capital gains), an RRSP (sheltering bonds) and your TFSA (the hot stuff).

Finally, ignore the noise. Experts telling you to go gold or more equity exposure, for example. The US election. The virus. Government deficits, central bank policies or prime ministers with ethical blind spots. I mean, does your dog care about what was in the news on Thursday or how last year compared to the average period? Can she even spell MAGA or BLM?

Nope. Results. That’s all that matters. Woof.

141 comments ↓

#1 Flop... on 08.03.20 at 1:04 pm

Good little chart from howmuch capturing who’s progressing forward and who’s in decline.

Italy was the worlds 4th biggest economy in 1980 and still even in 1990, now off the chart and has stalled.

China comes from the clouds to take pole position.

India with a couple of slick moves down the outside goes from 9th to 3rd and likely to be there for a long time.

The U.S knocked back into second place, but constantly building a new engine.

Canada and Australia?

Waiting in pit-lane for one of the big boys to pull in and ask for their nuts to be tightened…

M46BC

“Ranking the World’s Biggest Economies Over the Last 40 Years.

The coronavirus recession is dramatically shrinking the global economy. According to the World Bank, we are currently in the worst recession since World War II. Exactly how this will impact the standing of the largest economies is unknown.

*2020 marks the start of the first decade where the U.S. does not have the largest economy in the world ($22.32T). First place belongs to China by a long shot ($29.47T).

*Before this decade, the U.S. consistently had the largest economy in the world for the last 40 years, growing from $2.86T in 1980 to a projected $23.18T next year.

*Over the last few decades, many Asian countries have seen their economies grow significantly, including China ($29.47T), India ($12.36T), Japan ($5.89T) and Indonesia ($4.01T).

*Asian countries reached the top of the rankings, and Western European countries declined. Italy is no longer in the top 10, and Germany, France and the U.K. have all fallen further down the ranking.”

Top 10 Biggest Economies in 2020

China: $29.47T
United States: $22.32T
India: $12.36T
Japan: $5.89T
Germany: $4.59T
Russia: $4.52T
Indonesia: $4.01T
Brazil: $3.60T
United Kingdom: $3.24T
France: $3.16T

https://howmuch.net/articles/worlds-biggest-economies-over-time

#2 TurnerNation on 08.03.20 at 1:09 pm

Is this all about public health, or banks and the new system?

Banks wasted no time
– They made tons in fees on the CERB and CEBA system
– The destroyed interest rates, intra-day even
– The Fed and Bank of Canada each retained Blackrock to do their bidding
– Banks and large insurance co’s in this company all announced new hiring and promotion quota based on one’s DNA or pigmentation.
What about all the immigrants coming here precisely to get away from the Caste systems – whereby people are bound to a social or economic level based on their
appearance or surname? Nope the old system of getting ahead has been dismantled. Everything we believed in is now wrong. Re-education time. “Stay safe”!”

– Allowing mortgage deferrals…giving people just enough rope to hang themselves?
Stay tuned for September: will the Crown Bankers use the Crown Virus to take back Crown land? (reposession of homes, businesses?)

Some hints this might have all been planned:
In April or early May the Toronto Transit lay down stickers 6 feet apart in their subway system and busses. Stickers of faces…with masks on. They knew.
– In first two weeks of March corporation began prepping work from home. How’d they know? Everyone was totally healthy.
– Then at once all medium-large corporations sent out the same ‘flatten the curve’ email – exact same language. Ditto for the Floyd emails.
Such coincidence. Public health they care about? Or showing that they are onside with the new system?
Basically going forward ‘case numbers’ will be used to keep us on the run while more of the New System is rolled out, via incrementalism. Into 2022. Want more preview?
Check your history books. Big Tech and Big Pharma will rule our lives.

(As a public health reminder you will only get CV if you go to the beach, a bar, or engage in protesting countering the narrative. And you will get it the very next day! Results at once. And then the media will broadcast your private medical records, and our leaders will TskTsk and lock you down longer. )

Look at this obedience and compliance! Lined up in the UK watching the telescreen: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EeamHR5WsAs1vpM?format=jpg&name=small
Well done in the New System people. Our global elites appreciate your adherencee to precise measurements in standing, else you will be locked down into your cells as
Down Under. Bottom line, if you do not stand on your Mark 6-6-6 feet apart you will lose your job and be unable to transact commerce. Got it?

#3 DM in C on 08.03.20 at 1:12 pm

Just got pre-approved for our next mortgage @ 1.9%. Gonna vultch some sweet sweet property in Calgary this fall or over the winter, once the post-CERB time sets in.

#4 Beetman on 08.03.20 at 1:19 pm

Proof is in the future and the future isn’t here yet!

#5 TurnerNation on 08.03.20 at 1:21 pm

Flop, from yesterday I think I have my answer for down under. A prison colony once again?!:

“Victoria is moving into stage 4 lockdown with nightly curfews. People must stay 5km from home, are allowed out to go to work, buy food or exercise.

Yesterday’s 7 deaths include 3 women in their 70s, 2 women in their 80s, 1 man in his 90s and 1 woman in her 90s. Spot a pattern?”

#6 LG on 08.03.20 at 1:25 pm

Trudeau’s ethical blind spot is his disregard to the power of the word, his choice to speak/babble on about anything but the matter at hand. Seems contagious, many in politics use this tactic, showing their true colours. Don’t they realize how foolish this behaviour is? Just because you 100% can’t call it lying, it doesn’t mean you are behaving properly.
It I not what they say, it is what they do.
Same is true about investing. Like Garth says, ignore the noise. Follow and trust what works in the long term.

#7 Felix on 08.03.20 at 1:26 pm

“But if dogs were in charge of finances, they’d just do what works, and stay at it. Simple. Results are all that matter when you don’t have email and have to pee outside.”

Dogawful canines are barely qualified to sniff human crotches and each others’ butts. Finances? Pfft!

Follow your cat’s advice. You know – that smart and self sufficient creature that barely needs you. Cats are independent and wealthy already thanks to brains.

Plus civilized. Cats can use email and already pee inside. (Some of the dog-owning posters here still pee on their neighbours’ lawns)

#8 Arun on 08.03.20 at 1:31 pm

Thanks again Garth, for the sane and sensible advice!

#9 Dr V on 08.03.20 at 1:33 pm

Garth – wondering if you change the allocation at all when retired? Old school thinking was that bond
exposure would increase, but perhaps now better to
increase the equities with good dividend payers? Thanks.

#10 All this INFO ... on 08.03.20 at 1:35 pm

for free by Garth … take a bow.

#11 Armpit on 08.03.20 at 1:35 pm

Is there an ETF or combination ETF’s that meets that “balanced” criteria?

#12 Sail Away on 08.03.20 at 1:51 pm

A Tesla is wonderfully insulated against sound penetration. It makes is so easy to enjoy the sights of the lesser folk around me as autopilot takes me to my next destination.

Organic water, sometimes with a slice of organic lemon, is my drink or choice during these commutes.

How any of you are able to enjoy life with any less is beyond me.

#13 Bill on 08.03.20 at 1:54 pm

The power of fear propaganda….
Most haven’t connect the dots.” We are going to die” green movement was failing. That kid there were abusing to sell their message was not working. They don’t want you getting on planes trains autos. Your killing the planet!
So the bug was a gift (Maybe hand made) from heaven for the deep state. https://www.theburningplatform.com/2020/08/01/are-you-loving-your-servitude/

#14 Captain Uppa on 08.03.20 at 2:15 pm

“Better to own whole markets through broad-based equity ETFs – exchange-traded funds. They are cheap and liquid.”

Hey Garth, I totally believe in and have a 60/40 portfolio. However, some, like Michael Burry (famous Big Short guy), have called ETFs (index funds) to be in a bubble.

Is true?

#15 Pete from St. Cesaire on 08.03.20 at 2:24 pm

TurnerNation: You’re 100% spot-on. I’ve been warning people about what the future holds for decades now; right down to specifying this ‘plandemic’. Don’t think for a minute that you’re alone, millions of others know you’re correct but they’re hamstrung by the fact that even their own families are opposed to their telling of these truths.

#16 Phil on 08.03.20 at 2:25 pm

If dogs were in charge of finances, they would put all their money into kibble, take possession and eat it all in one sitting.
Yeah, I’ve owned dogs too!

#17 MF on 08.03.20 at 2:49 pm

The only conspiracy I can’t understand is how a certain poster is able to consistently get the top 3 post slots? Lol. Every blog entry, the second you click on the comments, there is a post like this plastered like fecal matter on the back of a public toilet seat for all to see. How off putting. Maybe he refreshes constantly, waiting for the perfect time, clicking refresh again and again. When the new post arrives who cares about reading it just squat and let it rip.

Lol. Just lol.

Anyways,

A good refresher. Our worst enemies for investing and making money? Emotions. The b and d portfolio eliminates (or reduces) that threat nicely.

MF

#18 majik on 08.03.20 at 2:55 pm

#2 TurnerNation on 08.03.20 at 1:09 pm

———————–

Don’t worry TurnerNation the tide is turning, people and businesses are fed up. Tens of thousands protested on the streets of Berlin yesterday. They were a rag tag group, ranging from civil liberties groups to far left and right political groups with a sprinkling of esoterics and those from the Reichsburger movement.

German politicians are divided on the protests, on one hand they want to see adherence to the current rules but at the same time as Germans want to uphold the democratic right to protest. Watching politicians perform the mental gymnastics on this today has been quite amusing.

Secondly businesses are fed up with arbitrary mandates and rules that act as defacto laws and regulations. None of these quarantine mandates and restrictions were put to a vote in parliaments around the world, they are Executive power law-making which is basically illegal in any democracy.

These mandates carry penal measures such as fines and imprisonment but note how governments have been loathe to enfore these mandates though? Because they know that a court challenge would see the legal basis for the mandates crumble.

Ryanair and Aer Lingus are now taking the Irish government to court over this. Their case rests on whether the government has the power to enact executive power mandates that severely impact their business and act as defacto laws and regulations without parliamentary approval. Opening arguments were this week, the judge said they have a case, proceedings are continuing.

#19 Learn2invesrkid.com on 08.03.20 at 2:55 pm

Great post Garth! I would like to add that having 5 to 10% of your portfolio in cash can really help your returns. Look what happened in March. If you had cash and a watch list of ETF’s (CPD) or blue chip stocks (BAM.A, BCE or ENB), you did very well. I bought then but looking back I wish I had 5 to 10% of my money in cash.

We keep a 1% cash position and put it into a high-yield security. Your action will decrease returns, not augment them. Plus it sounds like you’re a market timer. One more strike and you’re out. – Garth

#20 Flop... on 08.03.20 at 2:58 pm

#5 TurnerNation on 08.03.20 at 1:21 pm
Flop, from yesterday I think I have my answer for down under. A prison colony once again?!:

“Victoria is moving into stage 4 lockdown with nightly curfews. People must stay 5km from home, are allowed out to go to work, buy food or exercise.

Yesterday’s 7 deaths include 3 women in their 70s, 2 women in their 80s, 1 man in his 90s and 1 woman in her 90s. Spot a pattern?”

/////////////////////

Hey TN, I don’t know why they let me out of the colony, it certainly wasn’t because of good behaviour.

I told you guys before, I’m a construction worker not a quack, so I focus more on the economic side of things.

Do I see a pattern?

Yes, I do.

Small businesses are being crushed all over the planet.

I spoke to a girl from Melbourne this morning and she said her Mum works at a bowling alley and the business was only open for 16 days between shutdowns.

The lockdown is for six weeks, their version of OZ CERB is due to be wound back in late September.

What’s gonna happen now?

The money is being doled out federally but if state governments are shutting certain regions down then a more regional approach would make more sense.

As previously stated they have a hybrid EI/CERB type of thing happening, the payments are due to be slashed from around 2,150 to 1,650 in 8 weeks.

Youths, 16 to 24 living at home are due to be trimmed back around 800 bucks a month if memory serves me correct.

This is due to be run until the end of the year, with mucho price tag attached.

Remember, before all this mayhem kicked off, you had to work for the dole/self improve in some way, shape or form after the last layabout backlash in the late 90s.

They are find a way to slowly close the gap between the two slightly off- centre budget deficits.

I am also eligible to live in Fiji and New Zealand, maybe I should see if they require people to work for money.

I’ve already done a nuts joke today, so I won’t talk about coconuts…

M46BC

#21 MF on 08.03.20 at 3:00 pm

15 Pete from St. Cesaire on 08.03.20 at 2:24 pm

You’ve been “warning people” for decades??

Oh buoy, looks like we have a clairvoyant on our hands here.

You must be a billionaire since you can predict the future, and are all knowing.

Lol this reminds me of one of Garth’s responses to a post a while ago: “where are the normal people? Hello?”

MF

#22 Freedom First on 08.03.20 at 3:14 pm

#15 Pete from St. Cesaire

100% agree with your post. Perfectly said!

Freedom First

#23 Joseph R. on 08.03.20 at 3:19 pm

#15 Pete from St. Cesaire on 08.03.20 at 2:24 pm

Don’t think for a minute that you’re alone, millions of others know you’re correct but they’re hamstrung by the fact that even their own families are opposed to their telling of these truths.

—————————————————————–

When you end up choosing online conspiracy theories over your own family, your life has reached a new low. It’s time to log off and enjoy the company of those who love you.

#24 Stone on 08.03.20 at 3:19 pm

I really wonder what percentage of your readers (those who post comments versus those that do not) actually have balanced and globally diversified ETF portfolios. Might be a good survey to poll.

Based on the comments in the peanut gallery, I have a feeling most do not.

Which is why I keep at it. How about you? – Garth

#25 Spectacle on 08.03.20 at 3:21 pm

#12 Sail Away on 08.03.20 at 1:51 pm
A Tesla is wonderfully insulated against sound penetration*. It makes is so easy to enjoy the sights of the lesser folk around me as autopilot takes me to my next destination.

Organic water, ……..

How any of you

————-
Its 5am
1995 Porsche 993, 6 speed
Fabspeed exhaust
Whistler Hwy
Micro Brew beer at private Pub on arrival

*And whats wrong with a Loud, penetration on return home to her ……

#26 Barb on 08.03.20 at 3:23 pm

I appreciate the breakdown, Garth. Just rebalancing now. I do think 20% Canadian growth is too high. Canada is so small and Trudope is ruining our economy. I would make it 10-12% Canada and put the difference into US. Trump will win again.

Our 20% includes 5% REITs. So equity exposure is 15%. Canada could well outperform in the next year or two, as we reopen more fully, more quickly. – Garth

#27 Sask to AB on 08.03.20 at 3:29 pm

Superb post, Garth. Thanks!

#28 Sail Away on 08.03.20 at 3:29 pm

Garth, does that mean dogs are running your firm?

Six walks, breakfast, dinner, snack, chew bone…

Work? What?

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 3:32 pm

@#12 Sail Away’s doppelganger

If you actually want to be mistaken for Sail Away….

Ya might wanna use “Spell check” and “Grammar check”…..

Your illiteracy is glaringly obvious.

#30 stealth on 08.03.20 at 3:43 pm

Hi, question about how you view and define positions for same assets held in multiple accounts:

“And don’t have too many positions. Fewer than 20, for sure, even if you have a couple of million in the can.”

Say a person holds XYZ.TO etf in non-registered, tfsa and joint non-registered account.

Does it mean that the person has 3 positions or 1 position?

Thank you

One. – Garth

#31 Sail Away on 08.03.20 at 3:49 pm

#12 Sail Away on 08.03.20 at 1:51 pm

A Tesla is wonderfully insulated against sound penetration. It makes is so easy to enjoy the sights of the lesser folk around me as autopilot takes me to my next destination.

Organic water, sometimes with a slice of organic lemon, is my drink or choice during these commutes.

How any of you are able to enjoy life with any less is beyond me.

————–

Ok, fake Sail. You are now the fifth person to do this.

Knock yourself out, but, as always, please try to avoid spelling, punctuation or grammatical errors. That’s just uncivilized.

Poseurs. All so unique in the same way. And such trouble with written English.

#32 Grunt on 08.03.20 at 3:56 pm

Just had a strip torn off me by my financial guy of 30 years. Been a complete fool with a car lease back in 2016. Kept it from him. Played too much on my emotions and ended up over paying. Ordered to hand the damn thing back next March and walk away. Offered assistance with finding a used Toyota thereafter.

#33 JacqueShellacque on 08.03.20 at 3:57 pm

“That doesn’t mean seven points a year, every year since there have been times of decline (it lost 3% in 2018, for example).”

Sequence matters though Garth. A little back-of-the-envelope calculations shows that 2 different 10 year periods both with 7% ‘average’ annual growth can lead to quite divergent end values:

(-3)% 10% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
100k will be 183k after 10 years.

but if you have
7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
100k will be 196k in 10 years.

13% of the original capital seems a pretty big difference from just one (-3)% in a single year.

Extending that logic to the last 20 years of S&P 500 returns, you get an average of almost exactly 8% since 2000, which ‘sounds’ like it should be 466k on 100k invested at the outset according to a compound interest calculator, but going year by year you only end up with 321k – effectively 2 points off the advertised annual growth rate, a pretty heavy hit over the long run.

Doesn’t that highlight the limitations of the passive 60/40? Perhaps it’s more a creature of a specific time and environment?

Of course it’s not passive. What do you think you pay the advisor for? – Garth

#34 Learn2investkid.com on 08.03.20 at 4:04 pm

Thanks for responding Garth! Huge fan. I am not a market timer or day trader. I buy and hardly ever sell. Just want my dividends and some capital appreciation. I have held most of my stocks and ETF’s for 10+ years. I am very lazy. Learned a long time ago that motion does not equal progress.

#35 db on 08.03.20 at 4:04 pm

#1 Flop… on 08.03.20 at 1:04 pm
“Good little chart from howmuch capturing who’s progressing forward and who’s in decline..”

Better little chart would actually label axis (remember why/when that was still a thing?) and graph properly.

Competent chart would address things like:
-what dollars when (USD, USD’s from what year)
-what GDP (Nominal, PPP)
-relation of trend to population/demographics
-the ‘sources’ link doesn’t actually point to the data set

But thanks for quoting someone else’s half-assed efforts as a comment unrelated to today’s post.

….
Garth,
Thanks for the timely recap on asset allocation, I noticed the tally is 99% (39% fixed, 60% risk) so I assume there is still a cash balance on the side.
Also, I don’t recall if you ever talked about DRIP and their role in re-investing dividends automatically.
Best Regards

Cash 1%, invested. DRIPs only increase exposure to the same securities. – Garth

#36 Dirty Dan on 08.03.20 at 4:07 pm

> But if dogs were in charge of finances, they’d just do what works, and stay at it.

Unfortunately, nothing would change.

The government would be in the same legal quagmire for having sterilized generations of dogs without their consent. Some would claim it was eugenics and systemic breedism and ask for reparations.

The Huskies and German Shepards would be pulling their weight while the Chihuahuas and Poodles yapped away about rent prices not being fair.

Pit Bulls would be barking mad for being labelled “the most dangerous breed”, even though they account for the most attacks weighted by proportion.

I guess Pets.com might still be around.

#37 Dolce Vita on 08.03.20 at 4:08 pm

“Italy was the worlds 4th biggest economy in 1980 and still even in 1990, now off the chart and has stalled.”

SO TRUE Flop.

ALL because they adopted the € and other EU bull dung back in 1993. Floundered ever since. And the EU has become the France-Germany show, I mean even the UK got fed up and left (and I don’t blame them).

For their economic sake, they should do an ITALEXIT.

And when COVID-19 hit Italia, she got no help from the rest of the EU, in fact, EU borders where closed on Italia at the outset, Germany/France did not send PPE’s or Ventilators to help when asked to do so (they hoarded theirs).

Luckily Italia had plants that produce that and were able to ramp but still had to go on the World market and buy the shortfalls in the beginning (and low and behold, the SMUG GERMANS with few cases then were buying everything in sight making it difficult for Italia to meet her shortfalls, but she did).

Italia, if she exits and I am ALL FOR IT, will bounce back without the ridiculous EU telling her what she can and can’t do (e.g., recent COVID money with strings attached, Italia puts in €200 billion over a decade and she gets back €205 billion – I think GARTH could have earned her more than €5 billion on €200 billion over 10 years…hell, your pet cat would have done better than that).

Pretty sure if an ITALEXIT, that will be the END of the EU.

Then Angela and Macron can rule what is left and all the little bottom feeder, dick wad nations that it is comprised of that like the access to a larger market and its consumers but when those consumers need help, ah, no can do (Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Sweden).

Pretty sure Italia will get a HUZZAH from the UK if she leaves.

PS: at the peak of COVID-19 in Italia, exasperated with NO HELP FROM THE EU, pollsters asked Italians if they would VOTE YES to ITALEXIT, drum roll, the YES results were:

56%

First time since Maastricht.

#38 MF on 08.03.20 at 4:08 pm

#18 majik on 08.03.20 at 2:55 pm

“People are waking up”

-Sorry bud, people “woke up” in April. Just no one told you.

The people protesting in the streets, like the ones who are advocating for total lock down again, are on the extremes here.

“Normal” people, which account for I’d say 99.5% of the population, were initially worried, realized the threat wasn’t as bad as once thought, and are now going about their business as best they can. Toronto just entered stage 3. Everyone who wants to be is out and about. Everyone who wants to stay in is in.

Isn’t that what the sensible thing to do is??

In conclusion, your post should be dated April 15th 2020.

MF

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 4:09 pm

@#24 Stone.

I have a B&D portfolio .
For the last 7.5 years.

#40 wallflower on 08.03.20 at 4:13 pm

Re
#24 Stone on 08.03.20 at 3:19 pm
I really wonder…

Occasional poster …
Keep a more or less balanced PF
Sold half my bonds in March to buy US Index – just sold US index – back to bondish stuff (yet to be determined)
Did what Garth would say, do not do … market timing.

Keeping ~5 years living money now in uber conservative bondish stuff (just retired; 60).
Maybe that is my last market timing gig.

Five years of cash? What the heck are you expecting? – Garth

#41 Victor V on 08.03.20 at 4:26 pm

Botox, pot, booze: This 28-year-old spent almost half of her CERB in a single week. With no plans to settle, she needs to pay $16K in debt and wants to travel again

https://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2020/07/27/botox-pot-booze-this-28-year-old-spent-almost-half-of-her-cerb-in-a-single-week-with-no-plans-to-settle-she-needs-to-pay-16k-in-debt-and-wants-to-travel-again.html

#42 Don Guillermo on 08.03.20 at 4:31 pm

#25 Spectacle on 08.03.20 at 3:21 pm

Its 5am
1995 Porsche 993, 6 speed
Fabspeed exhaust
Whistler Hwy
Micro Brew beer at private Pub on arrival
*****************************************
Beauty!!!

*************************************
#75 kingston boy on 08.02.20 at 6:23 pm
@#58 Don Guillermo on 08.02.20 at 4:32 pm
#31 Stan Brooks on 08.02.20 at 2:18 pm

With the above logic Mexico city, the capital of the largest US trading partner with 20 millions population should experience shacks selling for 5 millions +. BTW the weather there is much nicer.

*****************************************
So are the restaurants!!
****************************************
So are the gangs!!

****************************************
The gangs are incredible. They’re Yuge!!!

Best gangs in the world

#43 Dolce Vita on 08.03.20 at 4:38 pm

I ‘dunno why all this concern for OZ, they’ve had their dung together on COVID since the start. Today they’ve had all of, new cases:

395

By comparison:

-Canada had 3 days ago 513 new cases and you didn’t see the World’s Press descending on them like they are on OZ.

And today new cases:

-The Mighty Fatherland = 696 (down from there usual 900-1000 or so for the past few days to a week AND of course no one ever dies from COVID in Deutschland ’cause they’re special or can’t or won’t count…Occam’s Razor)

-Macronville = 556 (down from their 1,500 or so the past week)

-Poor España = 3044 (2 day total, getting worse)

-Rule Britannia = 928 (also getting worse)

-ITALIA (former pariah and all of the above were smug towards) = 159 a good chunk of are infected African “Migrants” ferried over to Italia by body traffickers and their good buddies the NGO “ferry line”.

Almost forgot:

All the way USA = ∞ (32077, close enough)

——————–

Cut OZ some slack World MSM they’re doing fine and in general, geographically like Canada, ‘outta the way. They’ll be good soon enough.

——————–

Besides feeling bad for OZ and España it ought to be clear that

The Little Pandemic That Could

isn’t going anywhere away soon, so, Garth’s advice the best I’ve read so far from anybody.

#44 Risk....question?? on 08.03.20 at 4:42 pm

I was wondering what risks is there in a balanced ETF if the portion that makes up the bond holdings experiences negative interest rates going forward.

How would this impact the unit price of the ETF. Especially when the buffer between it’s equities held in the ETF would be exposed similar to proper pricing of holdings of individual stocks? Wouldn’t the protective diversification of bonds expose any investors to the same volatility and risks as individual share holders?

Rates are not going negative. The rest of your question is not clear. – Garth

#45 DON on 08.03.20 at 4:44 pm

“The study of history is important because it allows one to make more sense of the current world. One can look at past economic and cultural trends and be able to offer reasonable predictions of what will happen next in today’s world. One can also understand why some rules exist in the modern world.”
https://www.enotes.com › why-impo…
Importance Of History

History and sociology are often over looked in many peoples analysis. Our tools have advanced, our human nature…not so much. Besides it’s easier to argue about stuff then to get down to work and attempt in good faith to address things. I had the opportunity to study how the Soviet Union transitioned into some form of dictatorship from another form of dictatorship, the same for China. Change is incremental.

Study the history of Greece with respect to democracy, socialism, oligarchy etc

Science aided by new technologies are redefining possibilities for the future. History is happening right now, but how many people are noticing?

#46 akashic record on 08.03.20 at 4:48 pm

Nobody got billionaire with this recipe.

Yeah, that’s a great yardstick. You add so much to this site. – Garth

#47 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 4:54 pm

@#40 Victor V
“This 28-year-old spent almost half of her CERB in a single week. With no plans to settle, she needs to pay $16K in debt and wants to travel again”

++++

Trudeau doesnt care about tax payers money being squandered…… CERB is about “buying” votes….. nothing more.

#48 Don Guillermo on 08.03.20 at 4:58 pm

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 4:54 pm

Trudeau doesnt care about tax payers money being squandered…… CERB is about “buying” votes….. nothing more.
******************************************
Same as the WE scandals … buying votes and indoctrinating youth.

#49 Oracle of Ottawa on 08.03.20 at 5:03 pm

Good advice as always…well mostly good. For those that don’t know, BMO, Blackrock and Vanguard have an etf that will balance itself and you only need to own one etf. For example…VGRO, XGRO and ZGRO are etf’s with a 20% bond weighting. But there’s others with all equity or 40/60 split.

As for Preferred Shares, don’t they periodically reset at a lower rate now that interest rates are near zero. Thus, their pay out rate will get lower and lower over time.

20% sovereign bonds is way too much. Be careful. As for prefs, we are at the bottom of the rate curve. What a great time to take a position. – Garth

#50 Dolce Vita on 08.03.20 at 5:04 pm

It’s going to be a World hampered economically by COVID-19 for years to come.

I mean “superstar” Moderna a leader in vaccine development not doing so well with another coronavirus vaccine, SARS.

Basically, when you dose the herd even more, well expand Figure 1 and see what happens (pain, an more pain not to be outdone by the ever ubiquitous “Any local symptom”):

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022483

Ya, there still working on it…good luck Moderna (US $955 billion from Gov USA, so far) with that other coronavirus vaccine for pesky COVID-19.

PS: the SARS vaccine did OK with lab animals too. Not reading so good to me with the humans.

—————————–

The World will have to figure out how to increase wealth and commerce with the Little Pandemic that Could breathing down its neck ’cause a vaccine is probably not going to happen or not be fully effective.

Maybe we’ll all just all have to learn how to do with less…or Garth will find a way around that (as usual).

#51 Do we have all the facts on 08.03.20 at 5:06 pm

Canada exists in a global economy and our economic performance is measured against other countries.

The International Monetary Fund has determined the GDP of major countries around the world expressed in US dollars since 1980. Over the past ten years Canada’s economic performance has steadily declined when measured against other countries.

Between 1980 and 2019 the GDP of the United States increased by an average of 5.3% per annum.

Between 1990 and 2019 an average of 4.0% per annum
Between 2000 and 2019 an average of 4.0% per annum
Between 2010 and 2019 an average of 4.0% per annum

Between 1980 and 2019 the GDP of Canada increased by an average of 4.85% per annum.

Between 1990 and 2019 an average of 3.75% per annum
Between 2000 and 2019 an average of 4.60% per annum
Between 2010 and 2019 an average of 1.00% per annum

From a global perspective our economic performance over the past ten years has declined against many other countries and the Covid 19 lockdown has done nothing to improve this performance in 2020.

Measuring growth of our GDP in Canadian dollars is not an accurate reflection of how Canada is faring in the Global competition for increased business. In my opinion Canada has become complacent and seems content with an economy driven by domestic consumption and increasing government debt.

Once again I am asking our Federal government to shift their focus to the stimulation of true economic growth.

#52 Bill Grable on 08.03.20 at 5:09 pm

Mr. Turner – Greaterfool.ca is always a ‘must read’ – including weekends.

Lately, I have been noticing more and more stuff that makes me go….”HUH?.”

How you wade through this stuff and write such an amazing column, is a testament to your patience.

I would be siccing Bandit on some of these people.

#53 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 08.03.20 at 5:11 pm

I don’t suppose that you would share the SD of your B and D portfolio?

#54 Deplorable Dude on 08.03.20 at 5:17 pm

#TurnerNation “Flop, from yesterday I think I have my answer for down under. A prison colony once again?!:

“Victoria is moving into stage 4 lockdown with nightly curfews. People must stay 5km from home, are allowed out to go to work, buy food or exercise.

Yesterday’s 7 deaths include 3 women in their 70s, 2 women in their 80s, 1 man in his 90s and 1 woman in her 90s. Spot a pattern?”

———

Remember that feeling you got when the 2nd plane hit the WTC and you realised what was happening?

You should have that feeling now…..

#55 Bob in Hamilton on 08.03.20 at 5:22 pm

Garth Turner for Prime Minister.

We can dream, can’t we?

#56 Markets? on 08.03.20 at 5:23 pm

Fully invested and made out like a bandit on US equities since March but, these markets are irrational, manipulated and rigged.

Reality has to set in at some point.

#57 Howard on 08.03.20 at 5:28 pm

Because they go up in capital value when stocks fall

————————

Always? Real returns for the 60/40 or 50/50 portfolios were negative adjusted for inflation between 1965-1980.

Gee, is this 1972 again? Let me check my bellbottoms. – Garth

#58 tkid on 08.03.20 at 5:37 pm

Fear is my biggie right now. I may get forcibly retired next year with a pittance for a pension, plus both the Welland Mall and the Eaton’s Centre have much in common. No shoppers and stores closing.

How am I supposed to keep the faith?

#59 The real Kip (Ret) on 08.03.20 at 5:49 pm

Yea, or you could just pay off the house and sleep like a baby.

Fine, if you have a steady, lifelong income stream. Not everyone has a DB pension. In fact, most don’t. – Garth

#60 crossbordershopper on 08.03.20 at 5:55 pm

i guess when you talk to millionaires every day you think everyone is one. and you talk what people with money talk about, money, taxes etc, when you talk to little people you talk about sports and girls and cars and work. Thats basically what i have observed.

#61 Nonplused on 08.03.20 at 5:55 pm

#12 Sail Away on 08.03.20 at 1:51 pm
“A Tesla is wonderfully insulated against sound penetration. It makes is so easy to enjoy the sights of the lesser folk around me as autopilot takes me to my next destination.”

——————————

As long as you are going to destination F…ed I suppose. I wouldn’t trust the autopilot beyond 50 km/h they run into too many things. Full autopilot is not yet here and even when they finally figure it out there is no guarantee older Teslas have the sensors they will need. Right now they rely on sensors that could not be considered the equivalent of sight, and GPS.

#62 damien on 08.03.20 at 6:00 pm

Thank you for this.
I’m sure you’ve maybe covered it at length in the past, but what part of the above allocation should I hold in my TFSA ? Does this change after I max out both tfsa and rrsp? That is, is there a more optimal allocation over rrsp and tfsa before unregistered which changes once you’ve maxed both and introduce unregistered?

Thank you

#63 Camille on 08.03.20 at 6:33 pm

Thank you for the specific asset class and allocation information.
For those interested, I hold ZMI (BMO monthly income fund), bought end of 2019, and some covered call equity ETFs.
They performed poorly in the 2020 drawdown, and are struggling to recover.
I chased returns and am struggling to correct this. An unforced error.

#64 MF on 08.03.20 at 6:38 pm

#50 Do we have all the facts on 08.03.20 at 5:06 pm

This poster again?

Since no source was posted (as expected/like usual), I did my own search for the invisible phantom data that was cited.

The closest I could find was this:

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/[email protected]/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

Title: “Real GDP Growth. Annual percent changes”

The data goes back to exactly 1980, so it fits the bill.

“From a global perspective our economic performance over the past ten years has declined against many other countries and the Covid 19 lockdown has done nothing to improve this performance in 2020.”

-There is a chart on the link I posted above with a world map. Countries are coloured according to GDP levels, so they can be compared.

All it takes is about 1 second to compare Canada’s GDP performance over the past ten years to see it is:

-Always in the same 2 categories as every other developed country on earth (0-3% or 3-6%)
-At times we are above the US (2010, 2011, 2017), our closest comparible economy, and the one you cited in your comparison. COVID 19 has decimated the entire world economy, not just ours (see the 2020 picture).

Conclusion: Wrong. Canada’s GDP matches, and even a few times exceeded, comparable countries over the past ten years. Everyone’s economy is depressed right now.

“In my opinion Canada has become complacent and seems content with an economy driven by domestic consumption and increasing government debt.”

-When comparing debt levels of every other developed country, Canada is in the middle of the pack. The US, which you again cited in your post, is actually above us in terms of national debt, as are many comparible developed economies.

Conclusion: Somewhat wrong. Debt is a worry, but it is hardly a Canadian story. If you are going to mention Canadian debt it has to be taken in context (which you didn’t do).

-Finally, you also compared Canada’s GDP against other countries (like the US) over the past 4 decades. Again, a 5 second scroll through 1980-present shows the GDP of ALL developed countries fell comparatively over the past few decades against developing countries. No surprises there. The developed countries seem to trade spots, with Canadian results outshining it’s comparables one year, and other years being outshined.

Conclusion: Wrong. Canada’s economy is clearly following the same trends as other developed economies around the world. Actually, we seem to be doing better recently and improving in comparison (look at the past decade).

MF

#65 SJP on 08.03.20 at 6:47 pm

I think it may be prudent to hold bonds in a taxable account due to the low yield these days and equities in the RRSP.

Is it ever a bad thing to retire with too big of an RRSP?

If you have a DB pension, yup. – Garth

#66 Nonplused on 08.03.20 at 6:48 pm

Well for me, the subject dejure this weekend was not “what do you do with a balanced portfolio” but more “how do you come up with the money for a balanced portfolio”. (Kids came for a visit socially distanced on the deck, excellent weather.)

What surprised me most about the conversation is how totally pessimistic they both are about their futures. One is in STEM and the other is finishing up a teaching degree, so good employment prospects for both in above average paying jobs. Sure things look pretty bleak right now, housing seems unattainable and they have student loans and the economy sucks and they have no money. That much is true.

But what struck me is that they seemed to be unaware that that is how I started off too. And my father before me. And his father lived through WWII and immigrated here after also with nothing but 5 kids in tow. So did my mother’s father (well less kids in tow). My kids’ other grandparents also came from very modest beginnings but did well. It seems to be lost on them that the folks who went before them may have nice houses now but times weren’t always that easy. In fact WWII was downright shitty, my grandparents wouldn’t even talk about most of it. Both sides never got rich in Canada but they did alright for immigrants who didn’t speak the language. And their kids all did alright too. Nobody is on welfare.

But my kids and their generation figure you need to be born with a trust fund to get anywhere these days. They seem to have no concept that pretty much all the older people they see in their houses and on their boats and in their RV’s started out with nothing too. They seem to not be aware that the life cycle has always been the same for most people; you start with nothing. If you can you get a decent education in STEM or the trades, or dentistry. Then you make yourself useful to an employer. Eventually you move up the ranks or maybe start a business if you have the backbone for that. You spend less than you earn and pay down debt. You save. You live through the hard times and in good times make hay while the sun is shining. You never look at your neighbor with envy (this is a top 10 sin along with murder and adultery). You live below your means. I know this all sounds boring but it works. Every. Single. Time.

But I am sad to say my kids seem to think they should have been born at the finish line. I thought I had done better than that. Being a parent brings sadness, unless you stick to furbabies. Dogs get jealous too, but over the simple things like toys, kibbles and attention. Never houses or portfolios. And cats couldn’t really care less about anything.

So Garth, I know you cater both at work and on this blog to people who have already gone through most of the stages and have some money to think about. And I know you don’t have kids other than the furry kind. But I think this is an important subject that maybe if you don’t feel comfortable doing it maybe you can find another guest blogger. Subject: How to talk to your kids about money, life, the universe, and everything. Afterall, for most people their kids are their largest investment.

I’d offer to do it but so far it seems like I don’t have the credentials to do so.

#67 Trumpocalypse2020 on 08.03.20 at 6:53 pm

THREE MONTHS UNTIL GLOBAL CATASTROPHE

The US election November 3 will be a fiasco of totalitarian denial.

War will quickly become a desperately needed distraction for Trump.

COVID 19 second wave will be epic.

Civil war will engulf the US as foreign attackers join in glee

Environmental calamities are waiting in the wings.

City living will collapse across the world.

PREPARE

#68 Stone on 08.03.20 at 6:57 pm

#24 Stone on 08.03.20 at 3:19 pm
I really wonder what percentage of your readers (those who post comments versus those that do not) actually have balanced and globally diversified ETF portfolios. Might be a good survey to poll.

Based on the comments in the peanut gallery, I have a feeling most do not.

Which is why I keep at it. How about you? – Garth

———

I submitted to the conversion about 4 years ago. Quite pleased. It freed up a lot of my time. My net worth has grown 50% since then. I could easily retire today at 44. And I have time to post here. Win win. Right?

That’s why I don’t get why you have so many trading cowboys, crypto junkies, and gold lickers here. It looks like they’re trying to convert you. Not a lot of middle of the road folks (at least in the comments section).

#69 Toronto_CA on 08.03.20 at 7:00 pm

Question for Garth and the blog dogs:

Is a Biden win priced into the markets? The polls show him so far ahead and I don’t think Trump has been in the lead since Biden won the Democratic nomination ages ago.

That would assume the markets have priced in the odds which show Biden with a huge lead, but I read an article today saying the markets could collapse if Trump loses. Colour me confused.

Of course it’s priced in. Stop reading Breitbart. – Garth

#70 Stoph on 08.03.20 at 7:03 pm

#24 Stone on 08.03.20 at 3:19 pm
I really wonder what percentage of your readers (those who post comments versus those that do not) actually have balanced and globally diversified ETF portfolios. Might be a good survey to poll.

Based on the comments in the peanut gallery, I have a feeling most do not.

Which is why I keep at it. How about you? – Garth

—————————————————————–

Alternatively you could ask people if they have a B&D portfolio and then have them spell out what’s actually in the portfolio. You’d have people saying they have a B&D portfolio, but yet don’t have any bonds, or no exposure to international markets.

#71 John on 08.03.20 at 7:08 pm

Thank you, Garth, for the portfolio allocation advise. My questions are:
1. Does your asset location take foreign withholding tax into consideration?
2. Do you buy individual preferred shares or a preferred share etf?

(1) No, it’s a piffle. (2) ETF. – Garth

#72 Macduff on 08.03.20 at 7:14 pm

My BDSM portfolio has been performing well lately, everything looking up. Oops sorry got distracted was thinking about something else.

#73 Pete from St. Cesaire on 08.03.20 at 7:26 pm

#21 MF on 08.03.20 at 3:00 pm
15 Pete from St. Cesaire on 08.03.20 at 2:24 pm
You’ve been “warning people” for decades??
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Yep, I’m one of those crazy ‘conspiracy theorists’ always preaching doom & gloom. And yes, for over 20 years I’ve been saying that a big ‘outbreak’ such as the smaller ones that they have been conditioning us with for decades is they way they’ll go when the time comes: WW3 would be too destructive, a fake asteroid collision would be too hard to fake and leave them looking stupid when it fails to materialize; but a virus outbreak would be something that would be easy to get people on-board with and no-one is ever allowed to question medical authorities.

#74 Shane Richardson on 08.03.20 at 7:35 pm

It does not matter what you do or how good you are. It does not matter the returns you get or you compound your money at higher rates than GIC’s, bonds etc. or reduce your taxes etc.

They are going to steal it all. Communists to liberals and stupid Canadians will ruin Canada like the fate from Argentina to Venezuela to Germany in the 1940’s to U.S.S.R. to Zimbabwe. They are going to steal it all.

#75 Sail Away on 08.03.20 at 7:39 pm

#59 crossbordershopper on 08.03.20 at 5:55 pm
i guess when you talk to millionaires every day you think everyone is one. and you talk what people with money talk about, money, taxes etc, when you talk to little people you talk about sports and girls and cars and work. Thats basically what i have observed.

————–

I can confirm your observations as true. I surround myself with privileged and affluent people. Our conversations are 90% money and taxes, 10% cars and women.

I like to brag about my lifestyle and cars. I come here to do that. My millionaire friends just aren’t easily impressed.

I wonder if they are even my friends. Maybe they are just acquaintances. I suppose we are all just acquaintances in life, aren’t we?

At least I have my Tesla. Time to go for a drive. I need to pickup more organic water.

#76 Dr V on 08.03.20 at 7:50 pm

64 SJP

“Is it ever a bad thing to retire with too big of an RRSP?”

I think these have been labelled “tax bombs” on this blog. All funds withdrawn are treated as income, so all that has happened is the tax has been deferred.

I have been advised NOT to contribute more to the RRSP unless there is a decisive tax advantage. There may be one for 2020.

So what you don’t want is to get stuck at age 71 with a huge RIFF that puts you into a higher tax bracket than when you were working.

At first I was going to make very effort to lower that RRSP before I turned 71. I also have TFSA, non-reg and a corporation that will have retained earnings and rental income to draw out. After discussion with my advisor who had some new software, it looks like a blended approach is actually more tax efficient.

#77 Nonplused on 08.03.20 at 7:55 pm

#75 Sail Away on 08.03.20 at 7:39 pm

My experience has been that most successful people don’t want to brag about it. They don’t need to. It would be like a band clapping at their own performance while the audience was silent. Stop throwing yourself flowers.

#78 Hanna Franks on 08.03.20 at 7:59 pm

EQ bank pays 2.7% for 10 years GIC much more than 1 %.

In a decade you should double your money, not give it away to inflation. Bad choice. – Garth

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.03.20 at 8:14 pm

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 4:09 pm
@#24 Stone.

I have a B&D portfolio .
For the last 7.5 years.
————-
Black&Decker.
Don’t you follow Garth’s advice to diversify?

#80 Cdn Mom on 08.03.20 at 8:20 pm

#65 Nonplused on 08.03.20 at 6:48 pm
Well for me, the subject dejure this weekend was not “what do you do with a balanced portfolio” but more “how do you come up with the money for a balanced portfolio”. (Kids came for a visit socially distanced on the deck, excellent weather.)
What surprised me most about the conversation is how totally pessimistic they both are about their futures.
…………

Maybe you missed the boat on educating them? I was maybe 10 years old, and my mother made sure I was aware of every bill my parents had (70s, so mostly utilities, food, gas), the amounts, how big their mortgage was, interest rate (really interesting when it hit 21% for 6 months), property tax, my father’s blue collar income and hourly rate, etc.

By observing, I learned that you could build your own house, have only a small mortgage because of that, and get more bang for your buck. I also learned what layoffs, and working out of town meant.

My kids were taught VERY young that we were broke, so no expensive extra-curriculars until income allowed. They also knew what our bills were.

No secrets leads to a financial education.

………

Turner Nation…lots of silents folks with you. Not a single person I’ve talked to in months has bought in to the “new lifestyle”.

#81 Bill on 08.03.20 at 8:37 pm

#78 Hanna Franks on 08.03.20 at 7:59 pm
EQ bank pays 2.7% for 10 years GIC much more than 1 %.

In a decade you should double your money, not give it away to inflation. Bad choice. – Garth

I would never tie up any amount of money for 10 years. I got 50% at Tangerine at 2.25% and thats acceptable because i take higher risk trading choices. The other 50% is up over 150% in 5 months so my performce over all is sweet. Ive still got dry powder for the never ending opportunities or crashes to scoop up fire sales.

Garth the plan works for me but Ive spent years on this stuff.
Just trying to share another point of view or options.

#82 espressobob on 08.03.20 at 8:41 pm

Global diversification allows an individual investor the luxury of being the benchmark others are trying to outperform.

Most never do.

#83 Sail Away on 08.03.20 at 8:56 pm

#77 Nonplused on 08.03.20 at 7:55 pm
#75 Sail Away on 08.03.20 at 7:39 pm

My experience has been that most successful people don’t want to brag about it. They don’t need to. It would be like a band clapping at their own performance while the audience was silent. Stop throwing yourself flowers.

————–

Not me, NP. Just a troll.

#84 Dr V on 08.03.20 at 9:00 pm

80 Cdn mom

“My kids were taught VERY young that we were broke”

That’s not the problem. Cant get blood from a stone.

The problem is when you are NOT broke.

#85 Suburban Bob on 08.03.20 at 9:04 pm

As a migrant from the Rock back in the day, I note there is a new Premier as of today.

With debt approaching $20 billion and oil projects in peril, declining younger populations and outmigration, NL looks to be in a very tricky spot. New Brunswick and Alberta may not be far behind.

What could provinces in this much trouble foretell for our national future? I wonder.

#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.03.20 at 9:05 pm

Reading the posts, I think what the ….?
Are all the loonie binners out on a day pass?
Then I glance at the calendar.
FULL MOON!

#87 TurnerNation on 08.03.20 at 9:13 pm

I appreciate your good words fellow Blog Dogs.( I’ve already made my own system, watching this one from the sidelines.)

The bankers chose BlackROCK and what about BlackStone?

There is/was some relation, but Blackstone later sold out their stake of Blackrock. Some people in common:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blackstone_Group
“Blackstone also ventured into other businesses, most notably investment management. In 1987 Blackstone entered into a 50–50 partnership with the founders of BlackRock, Larry Fink and Ralph Schlosstein’

….
Let’s see them as cogs both in the same machine shall we? Because:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2017/01/06/blackstones-big-bet-on-the-u-s-housing-recovery-files-to-go-public/#4ca4da33dba2

“When the credit crunch struck in 2008 and created a tidal wave of … Blackstone spent billions to buy nearly 50,000 homes nationwide, ..”

^ so yeah, ready and able to scoop up foreclosures. Coming soon to a town near yours? This is the machine running our lives. Machines have rights too…look at our elites fawn over their creation, our new A.I. rulers:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophia_(robot)
Sophia is a social humanoid robot …
Sophia has been covered by media around the globe and has participated in many high-profile interviews. In October 2017, Sophia “became” a Saudi Arabian citizen, the first robot to receive citizenship of any country.[4][5] In November 2017, Sophia was named the United Nations Development Programme’s first ever Innovation Champion, and is the first non-human to be given any United Nation title.[6]”

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 9:21 pm

@#67 Trumpocalypse2020
“THREE MONTHS UNTIL GLOBAL CATASTROPHE”

++++
I hate to say it but when you joined us in 2018? 17? 16?
The doom and gloom was “just around the corner”….

I believe I copywrited Apocalypse2019 in Dec 2018.
So
I hereby Own Trumpocalypse2021, Apocalypse2021, Poxy2021, etc etc etc……
See ya in January :)

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 9:25 pm

@#79 Ponzie Preamble…

“Black&Decker.
Don’t you follow Garth’s advice to diversify?
++++

Aahahahaha.
Zee Austrian sed a funny!
Apparently abbreviations are way over his (jar)head.

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 9:29 pm

@#77 Nonplused

Faron has been noticeably absent while the fake “Sail Away” has been bragging about his wealth……….figure it out.

Or as Ponzie suggested….

ITS A FULL MOON

#91 Phylis on 08.03.20 at 9:35 pm

Well, that’s four now. Unless nonplused is just jumping on the fun pile.
People can read, comprehend and yet understanding is still challenging.

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 9:40 pm

Garth ,
Any comment on The Economist article that numerous govts may consider negative interest rates AFTER they get rid of cash?
Thus avoiding the average Mom and Pop “stuffing their matress” if the Banks start charging money for savings accounts.
The way govts are “blowing their budgets” all over the world seems to indicate they will do just about anything to keep their heads off the chopping block and ahead of the torches and pitchfork mobs.

#93 akashic record on 08.03.20 at 9:51 pm

#46 akashic record on 08.03.20 at 4:48 pm

Nobody got billionaire with this recipe.

Yeah, that’s a great yardstick. You add so much to this site. – Garth

The yardstick has changed. It has a big B on it now. Everybody knows, it’s everywhere. It is affecting everyone’s life. Do you want to write about it some day?

#94 AisA on 08.03.20 at 10:02 pm

#87 TurnerNation on 08.03.20 at 9:13 pm

” In November 2017, Sophia was named the United Nations Development Programme’s first ever Innovation Champion, and is the first non-human to be given any United Nation title.[6]”

Oh come on, you know good and well that the UN has given countless titles to non-humans.

#95 Lawrence on 08.03.20 at 10:05 pm

Good blog today!
Looks like hardly any deletions!
Unless maybe the deletions are Deleted…hmmm
This blog soon will have all followers and no contrarians.
So sad to see you are rooting for Biden. I’m afraid he is just a stuffed suit….but you already knew that…..however, he’s so far ahead now(or is he?), how can he lose?

Have a nice day….

#96 majik on 08.03.20 at 10:17 pm

#18 majik on 08.03.20 at 2:55 pm

“People are waking up”

-Sorry bud, people “woke up” in April. Just no one told you.
—————-

That’s not what I said, but keep keep working on the comprehension skills.

Smart people might have “woken up” as you say in April but we’re now getting to the point where “the rubber meets the road” with legal challenges and protests. These weren’t happening in April.

#97 Drake 2.0 on 08.03.20 at 10:33 pm

Listen, Russia has first Covid vaccine coming out for the general public August 14, 2020.

That is in 11 days.

These guys are way ahead. North America will be lucky to get one out by November.

And I am pretty sure China had one all along – look how their numbers stalled out below even that of Canada.

#98 Ronaldo on 08.03.20 at 10:38 pm

#143 David Pylyp on 08.03.20 at 9:37 pm

Flu season. 3 have the flu and dad taking no chances.

What we have to look forward to.

https://www.gettyimages.ca/detail/photo/family-on-sofa-three-has-the-flu-the-dad-isnt-royalty-free-image/1211318285?adppopup=true

#99 NoName on 08.03.20 at 10:42 pm

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 9:40 pm
Garth ,
Any comment on The Economist article that numerous govts may consider negative interest rates AFTER they get rid of cash?
Thus avoiding the average Mom and Pop “stuffing their matress” if the Banks start charging money for savings accounts.
The way govts are “blowing their budgets” all over the world seems to indicate they will do just about anything to keep their heads off the chopping block and ahead of the torches and pitchfork mobs.

Not quite same but very close.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/bank-ireland-now-imposing-negative-rates-cash-held-pensions

#100 Karlhungus on 08.03.20 at 11:27 pm

Your post is title simple, yet IMO your portfolio is too complex. Should be even simpler. Why REITs? no need. Cut them out. And at 5% its too small to even register anyway. Dont need to get specific with sectors either. Just stick with broad based index ETFS with Can, US, INT and emerging markets. More effective.

#101 NSNG on 08.04.20 at 12:32 am

The next election cycle worldwide should be very interesting entertainment.

The reaction to covid will cause the fall and rise of many

#102 Bob Dog on 08.04.20 at 1:11 am

Carl Sagan was one of my life mentors. He convinced nasa to turn the cameras of voyager back to earth to take a photo now known as the pale blue dot. He recoded a short speech to illustrate the importance of earth in the universe as the one and only place that can support life.

Apparently no Canadian has ever seen or heard of this. Canadians are happy to turn a quick buck selling their slice of the only planet in the know universe to anyone with a bag of cash.

The good news is covid will free up valuable land and housing that can be sold for a quick buck.

#103 Jane24 on 08.04.20 at 2:13 am

You know what guys, life doesn’t last forever. If you are over 65 stop chasing and worrying about the best return and start spending and enjoying your money. That is what it is for. This is why when you were younger you gave up the jam and managed with the bread. One never knows when that truck is coming with your name on it.

I have had a mixed career and used to be a funeral director and I never had surviving spouses say I wish we had worked harder for longer. They all said I wish when we had retired we had followed our dreams together. If you have enough bucks then just live your life and I mean really live your life. Enough bucks are simply enough bucks.

And yes where we have our holiday home in Southern Italy the locals are sick of the EU too.

#104 SoggyShorts on 08.04.20 at 2:14 am

#9 Dr V on 08.03.20 at 1:33 pm
Garth – wondering if you change the allocation at all when retired? Old school thinking was that bond
exposure would increase, but perhaps now better to
increase the equities with good dividend payers? Thanks.

***************************
Old school indeed, and only for short (30y) retirements.
Historically the failure rate for portfolios when you have a longer retirement (40-60y) is way too high with 60/40 and statistically retirees would have been much better off taking a glidepath from 60/40 to 80% or even 100% equities in retirement.

Source:https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/09/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-19-equity-glidepaths/

#105 Don Guillermo on 08.04.20 at 2:40 am

#66 Nonplused on 08.03.20 at 6:48 pm
Well for me, the subject dejure this weekend was not “what do you do with a balanced portfolio” but more “how do you come up with the money for a balanced portfolio”. (Kids came for a visit socially distanced on the deck, excellent weather.)

What surprised me most about the conversation is how totally pessimistic they both are about their futures. One is in STEM and the other is finishing up a teaching degree, so good employment prospects for both in above average paying jobs. Sure things look pretty bleak right now, housing seems unattainable and they have student loans and the economy sucks and they have no money. That much is true.

But what struck me is that they seemed to be unaware that that is how I started off too. And my father before me. And his father lived through WWII and immigrated here after also with nothing but 5 kids in tow. So did my mother’s father (well less kids in tow). My kids’ other grandparents also came from very modest beginnings but did well. It seems to be lost on them that the folks who went before them may have nice houses now but times weren’t always that easy. In fact WWII was downright shitty, my grandparents wouldn’t even talk about most of it. Both sides never got rich in Canada but they did alright for immigrants who didn’t speak the language. And their kids all did alright too. Nobody is on welfare.

But my kids and their generation figure you need to be born with a trust fund to get anywhere these days. They seem to have no concept that pretty much all the older people they see in their houses and on their boats and in their RV’s started out with nothing too. They seem to not be aware that the life cycle has always been the same for most people; you start with nothing. If you can you get a decent education in STEM or the trades, or dentistry. Then you make yourself useful to an employer. Eventually you move up the ranks or maybe start a business if you have the backbone for that. You spend less than you earn and pay down debt. You save. You live through the hard times and in good times make hay while the sun is shining. You never look at your neighbor with envy (this is a top 10 sin along with murder and adultery). You live below your means. I know this all sounds boring but it works. Every. Single. Time.

But I am sad to say my kids seem to think they should have been born at the finish line. I thought I had done better than that. Being a parent brings sadness, unless you stick to furbabies. Dogs get jealous too, but over the simple things like toys, kibbles and attention. Never houses or portfolios. And cats couldn’t really care less about anything.

So Garth, I know you cater both at work and on this blog to people who have already gone through most of the stages and have some money to think about. And I know you don’t have kids other than the furry kind. But I think this is an important subject that maybe if you don’t feel comfortable doing it maybe you can find another guest blogger. Subject: How to talk to your kids about money, life, the universe, and everything. Afterall, for most people their kids are their largest investment.

I’d offer to do it but so far it seems like I don’t have the credentials to do so.

****************************************

Very well said and impressive … not boring at all.

#106 ok boomer on 08.04.20 at 7:39 am

The boomer saying he started with nothing and had to work his way up and it’s no different today, are you senile?

You think the world is the same as it was 60 years ago?

Have you been outside lately?

Do you even know how much a house costs today? How much school costs? When’s the last time you had to look for a job?

I can’t believe anyone would be so ignorant and then look down on his own kids. But then again, boomers..

#107 BillyBob on 08.04.20 at 7:41 am

#83 Sail Away on 08.03.20 at 8:56 pm
#77 Nonplused on 08.03.20 at 7:55 pm
#75 Sail Away on 08.03.20 at 7:39 pm

My experience has been that most successful people don’t want to brag about it. They don’t need to. It would be like a band clapping at their own performance while the audience was silent. Stop throwing yourself flowers.

————–

Not me, NP. Just a troll.

==============================================

In NP’s defense, it’s impossible to tell the difference.

#108 Steven Rowlandson on 08.04.20 at 7:44 am

Since dogs are normal most of the time and don’t know how to borrow money and accumulate debt they would be more qualified to run the government than those humans who are allowed on the ballot or to vote.

#109 Dharma Bum on 08.04.20 at 7:59 am

Garth is extremely generous with this free sound advice.
It’s very valuable.
Many rubes start up with a financial advisor of some sort, who spins a yarn and tries to make the clients feel helpless and dependant by spewing a lot of malarky and gobbledeegook.
Not Garth.
He is definitely a stand up guy, dispensing solid advice for the benefit of all who are willing to listen.
Thank you sir.
Unfortunately, many who hear this advice, do not listen.
They are like those lazy, obese, chronic overeaters of horrible foods. Those that sit around, sloth like, on their ratty couches, eating cheezies and reading one diet book after another, but never taking action or following the advice of eating properly and increasing their physical activity.
Here we have the nutcases that read the blog daily, but scoff, criticize, demean, contradict, rebut, and diminish the sage advice imparted by our esteemed mentor.
Pity.
If they would only listen and take action, they could be like Sail Away.
Rich, powerful, happy, and distinguished.
60/40 is the way to go.
Wu Wei.

#110 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 08.04.20 at 8:19 am

OMG!!!!!

THE MAKE BELIEVES HAVE LOST AGAIN!!!!!!!

2-0!

They didn’t even get a single shot on goal in the final six minutes! They don’t care, they don’t even try to please their delusional virtual fans!!

Hey – this has only been a ‘virtual’ team for decades anyway :)

Is TorontoHole going back to normal!!??

Is Covid over!!??

Even the friendly GTA murder attempts are going back to normal!

https://toronto.citynews.ca/video/2020/07/13/toronto-had-6-shootings-in-24-hours-but-what-can-be-done-about-gun-violence/

No wonder the real estate market is up in Toronto – everyone wants to come here to die, by suicidal sports misery or gunfire!!!

TORONTO ROCKS!!

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.04.20 at 8:21 am

@#103 Jane24
“And yes where we have our holiday home in Southern Italy the locals are sick of the EU too. ”

+++

I dont think its the EU the locals are sick of…….

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.04.20 at 8:25 am

@#109 Dharma Bum
“Those that sit around, sloth like, on their ratty couches, eating cheezies …”
++++

I wouldnt call my couch “ratty”.
“Frayed” might be a tad more apt.
What do you have against cheezies?

#113 Dharma Bum on 08.04.20 at 8:29 am

#97 Drake 2.0

Listen, Russia has first Covid vaccine coming out for the general public August 14, 2020.
——————————————————————–

Hah!

It’s just vodka in a syringe.

#114 TurnerNation on 08.04.20 at 8:41 am

#54 Deplorable Dude- actually, my moment was when they turned to dust.

Many famous WW2 battles were on beaches.
Today in WW3, beaches again. Going to a sunny beach is a high risk activity: beaches are closed like minefields.
(Whereas, going to liquor stores is low risk.)
If you go to a beach you will get CV the next day; the media will be alerted (front page news) your governor will TskTsk you and impose more lockdowns. We are in the Compliance stage.

By 2021 we might have some sort of global UN-based UBI system, whereby free money for all and First World countries are bled dry to pay . Watch for predictive chatter around this.

#115 maxx on 08.04.20 at 9:05 am

@ #84

That IS the problem – perhaps she’s smart enough to avoid consumer debt, which is what many Canuckleheads are drowning in.

She’s teaching her children well.

#116 Do we have all the facts on 08.04.20 at 9:08 am

#64 MF

You seem determined to make derogatory comments about opinions I express on this blog but might I request that you stop suggesting that my opinions are not based on factual information.

Exports contribute 20% to Canadian GDP and energy based and automotive products comprise 35% the value of our total exports. These two sectors are facing strong world wide competition and as a result the prospects for future growth seem limited.

The total value of exports declined between 2018 and 2019 in spite of a substantial decline in the value of the Canadian dollar. You are certainly entitled to accept the current economic performance of Canada as satisfactory but research completed by the International Monetary Fund indicates that many countries have performed much better than Canada over the past ten years.

I will not apologize for suggesting that Canada could do much better if we focussed on expansion of our economy instead of how fast a virus is spreading in other countries.

#117 maxx on 08.04.20 at 9:25 am

#106 ok boomer on 08.04.20 at 7:39 am

You’re eating yourself alive. How much of your life’s time will you pi$$ away seething? That’s a lot of energy which could be deployed on more productive means to future well-being.

My niece is at uni, working minimum wage jobs, yet is maxing out her TFSA and RRSP. If one job disappears, she finds another.

No self-pity here. None.

No worries about her, no matter the circumstances.

#118 Do we have all the facts on 08.04.20 at 9:56 am

#64 MF

One more real fact to chew on.

In 2010 the World Bank recorded Canadian GDP at $1.614 trillion. In 2019 the World Bank recorded Canadian GDP at $1.736 trillion. The average annual compounded rate of growth over this period was less than 1.0% per annum.

According to your perspective most countries in the world experienced similar rates of growth in their GDP.

If your perspective was actually true it would take a miracle for a balanced and diversified portfolio to generate average annual returns of 6.0% per annum over this same period. Clearly GDP growth of more than 1.0% per annum is required to maintain the current value of equities around the world.

Conclusion! Canada appears to be an under achiever!

#119 Dr V on 08.04.20 at 10:03 am

117 Maxx

Why would anyone with a minimum wage job(s) contribute to an rrsp?

#120 TurnerNation on 08.04.20 at 10:31 am

And it’s here folks. Medical martial law: you are no longer allowed to be sick; conversely you no longer can prove your health. The A.I. will be deciding whether or not you are allowed to leave the house – locked down or not.
This is the global control system our elites have been planning for decades. This is the rollout of the New System. Always with our travel rights. I’ve said this form day one. The lockdowns and curfews are conditioning tools, test runs to make it normal – the Compliance stage before the A.I. is installed:

“Gatekeeper Systems Inc
Symbol GSI
Gatekeeper releases temperature sensing tech for buses
2020-08-04 10:14 ET – News Release

Gatekeeper Systems Inc. has launched its intelligent temperature sensing system (ITSS), an intelligent infrared body temperature sensor system that incorporates a smart panel, thermal imaging and artificial intelligence to quickly and accurately measure the body temperature of passengers who board school buses and public transportation vehicles.

ITSS is a contactless system that can determine body temperature within 20 milliseconds using thermal cameras, artificial intelligence, and video analytics. Visual and audible alarms are triggered when temperature thresholds are exceeded. When passengers board a bus, the ITSS panel records body temperature within a range of 0.6-meters at an accuracy of +/- 0.5 degree Celsius.

The 7-inch ITSS panel is equipped with facial recognition capabilities to improve accuracy, and which also allows customers to pursue future applications such as intelligent passenger routing, contact tracing, passenger counting, or payment verification. The panel records images within 40 milliseconds and has storage capacity of 50,000 facial images.”

#121 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.04.20 at 11:13 am

#120 TurnerNation on 08.04.20 at 10:31 am

—-

I love it. I’ve said it before, reading your posts is like watching a sci-fi novel being written before our eyes. Don’t stop, it’s fascinating.

I know this seems like a troll but it isn’t (I’ll save that for Foron and MFer). I don’t believe in your theory, but I make a concerted effort to look for you posts.

My biggest issue with the material is what is the motive? What is the point of trying to enslave 7-8B people? Also, who is the villain, and who will be the hero? We need to be introduced to You-Know-Who eventually, as well as our protagonist(s).

#122 YouKnowWho on 08.04.20 at 11:35 am

You said something about a new lockdown a day or two back Garth?

Well, 70% of Canadians may own houses, but 70% also would support a new lockdown when the 2nd wave arrives.

Notice I said when, not if. How do I know for sure? First, my tea leaves told me so. Second, not that I’m bragging, but I’ve been right about many assessments on this virus, including some cold hard truths news media refuses to report – like the fact that we’ve become less active, less healthy, and easier to pick off. SO MUCH SCREEN TIME! My goodness…

Although I may have been wrong when I called it the BladeRunner Flu. It’s more of a Logan’s Run Flu.

Sandmen set the clock at 30. The virus seems to be more lenient and sets the clock at 60. Run Logan, Run!

DYK that the crude death rate of US is higher than Canada? Wonder why? Are they Americans ahead of us on obesity and diabetes?

#1 cause of dying is living. Crude death rate alone takes out 60m a year and increasing. Covid? A mere 1% of the crude rate, maybe with American determination and can-do attitude it will get to 2%.

>
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-strong-majority-of-canadians-signal-support-for-new-lockdown-if-covid/

#123 Sherry Quintal on 08.04.20 at 12:42 pm

maxx, I know what you mean. My younger sister is the same. She has been working since she is 16 years old.

She is 22 now and has already saved up $140,000. She has maximized her total annual contributions to her RRSP’s and TFSA’s and has the rest $25,000. She does not even own a car. She just rents one when she needs it.

#124 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.04.20 at 12:51 pm

#123 Sherry Quintal on 08.04.20 at 12:42 pm
maxx, I know what you mean. My younger sister is the same. She has been working since she is 16 years old.

She is 22 now and has already saved up $140,000. She has maximized her total annual contributions to her RRSP’s and TFSA’s and has the rest $25,000. She does not even own a car. She just rents one when she needs it.

—-

That’s awesome, but Dr. V makes a very astute point, but didn’t elaborate. Why would anyone earning minimum wage use their RSP room? They are receiving no tax benefit for doing so and will not be able to use this money for many years to come.

This money should have been invested in a personal investment account, the RSP room should have been saved for when they are receiving a salary that would benefit from RSP deduction. These kids, with such great potential, are getting bad advice somewhere.

#125 whiplash on 08.04.20 at 1:11 pm

#129 TurnerNation

And here it is folks………

And the icing on the cake, add in facial recognition technology for people wearing masks. Hanwang Technology/Hanvon has developed such a product which is mainly used by the Ministry of Public Service/police/CCP in China. With an accuracy rate of 95% this app can identify up to 30 people in a second.

“It not only benefits Chinese people, but also, when technology is applied globally, it can benefit the world”. VP of the company!

#126 JB on 08.04.20 at 1:12 pm

#122 YouKnowWho on 08.04.20 at 11:35 am

You said something about a new lockdown a day or two back Garth?

Well, 70% of Canadians may own houses, but 70% also would support a new lockdown when the 2nd wave arrives.

Notice I said when, not if. How do I know for sure? First, my tea leaves told me so. Second, not that I’m bragging, but I’ve been right about many assessments on this virus, including some cold hard truths news media refuses to report – like the fact that we’ve become less active, less healthy, and easier to pick off. SO MUCH SCREEN TIME! My goodness…

Although I may have been wrong when I called it the BladeRunner Flu. It’s more of a Logan’s Run Flu.

Sandmen set the clock at 30. The virus seems to be more lenient and sets the clock at 60. Run Logan, Run!

DYK that the crude death rate of US is higher than Canada? Wonder why? Are they Americans ahead of us on obesity and diabetes?

#1 cause of dying is living. Crude death rate alone takes out 60m a year and increasing. Covid? A mere 1% of the crude rate, maybe with American determination and can-do attitude it will get to 2%.

>
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-strong-majority-of-canadians-signal-support-for-new-lockdown-if-covid/
……………………………………………………………
That 70% who own homes can afford to ride it out until the sun shines again. If ever! So no issues with another lock-down. The rest of the population will be on the streets.

Actually a fifth of homeowners, in distress, just had to defer their mortgage payments for 6 months. They’ll be unlikely to receive the same offer in another wave. Be careful what you state. – Garth

#127 Dawn Peters on 08.04.20 at 1:16 pm

I thought al you so called economists and advisors said there is no inflation. Inflation was crushed after the early 1990’s. Now you say that 30.5% total which is 2.7% compounded over 10 years just goes to inflation.

You can’t suck and blow at the same time. We all know that the whole financial and economic world is so manipulated and fake since the late 1990’s for at least 22 years now. They lie about interest rates need to be kept down to help boost the economy, they lie about inflation rates, they lie about real estate, it is all a bunch of BS.

#128 IGV on 08.04.20 at 1:59 pm

SQQQ

Nice and simple.

After all Buffets beloved shares of Berkshire consists of 40% Apple.

After his call with the airlines the Nasdaq that is basically 4 stocks should be a nice simple play for the next 6 months-as reality sinks in.

#129 IGV on 08.04.20 at 2:08 pm

Apple is adding the equivalent of an Exxon Mobil in market value about every 10 days.

Yet last time I played spot the electric car it took 20 min on the highway.

Things will correct sooner than most think. Swiftly and abruptly.

Till then short it-smile, and just nod as the crowd says its different this time.

Remember Nortel Garth?

#130 Bill on 08.04.20 at 2:09 pm

#127 Dawn Peters on 08.04.20 at 1:16 pm
The systems completely bankrupt. You can’t dig yourself out of a black hole. When to kill the #1 industry…energy. You can’t grow yourself out of this mess. Printing is inflationary. Gold and silver are the canary in the coal mine. They continue to rocket higher in all currencies…ZIRP policy everywhere. Negative bonds in Europe the list goes on. If they weren’t printing and buying bonds the world would blow sky high. Extend and pretend. It started years ago.
I would buy any RE even though I could buy for cash. I’ve got PM trades on at 200-400% returns…be careful its getting overheated!
https://www.howestreet.com/2020/07/cmhc-ponzi-scheme-real-estate-equity-negative-mortgages-ross-kay/

#131 Oakville to Burlington on 08.04.20 at 2:35 pm

Bought the dream home/property on COVID sale and now looking for the best Uninsured 5 Year fixed rate with 15-30% prepayment options.

Anyone have any advice on how/where to find a sub 2% rate? Hearing a lot of 2.09 or perhaps 2.04%

#132 Greg Frankiln on 08.04.20 at 2:35 pm

ImGonnaBeSick, I know from my long time work friend which we worked 35 years together until we both retired in 2015 contributed very early on in his RRSP.

He started contributing when he was only 15 years old from summer jobs to part-time work for about 4.5 years. This gave the ability to save him $25,000+$4,000 RRSP refund total $29,000 compounding in 5 year GIC’s early on and later equity mutual funds from the late 1980’s. The $29,000 grew quite a bit worth $477,000 in 36 years.

He never touched on the advice of his parents and grandfather. The whole point of the RRSP was for it to be a longer term tax shelter compounding for decades to be used for retirement and the earliest you start it the more benefit you will get from it. This one important financial and tax related advice allowed him to retire really much earlier at 56.5 years old. This gave him and his wife a big financial bridge to fill the big gap of $272,000 of income needed in 8.5 years before to get their full CPP OAS later at 65 years old.

He had no mortgage or anymore debts at 50 years old and the rest of his RRSP contribution done later were another $331,000 plus TFSA contributions and worth was a total of $39,000. The only other net worth he had was $25,000 savings account and the equity in the house was another $650,000.

#133 VicPaul on 08.04.20 at 2:36 pm

#64 MF on 08.03.20 at 6:38 pm
#50 Do we have all the facts on 08.03.20 at 5:06 pm

This poster again?

Since no source was posted (as expected/like usual), I did my own search for the invisible phantom data that was cited.

The closest I could find was this:

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/[email protected]/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

Title: “Real GDP Growth. Annual percent changes”

The data goes back to exactly 1980, so it fits the bill.

“From a global perspective our economic performance over the past ten years has declined against many other countries and the Covid 19 lockdown has done nothing to improve this performance in 2020.”

-There is a chart on the link I posted above with a world map. Countries are coloured according to GDP levels, so they can be compared.

All it takes is about 1 second to compare Canada’s GDP performance over the past ten years to see it is:

-Always in the same 2 categories as every other developed country on earth (0-3% or 3-6%)
-At times we are above the US (2010, 2011, 2017), our closest comparible economy, and the one you cited in your comparison. COVID 19 has decimated the entire world economy, not just ours (see the 2020 picture).

Conclusion: Wrong. Canada’s GDP matches, and even a few times exceeded, comparable countries over the past ten years. Everyone’s economy is depressed right now.

“In my opinion Canada has become complacent and seems content with an economy driven by domestic consumption and increasing government debt.”

-When comparing debt levels of every other developed country, Canada is in the middle of the pack. The US, which you again cited in your post, is actually above us in terms of national debt, as are many comparible developed economies.

Conclusion: Somewhat wrong. Debt is a worry, but it is hardly a Canadian story. If you are going to mention Canadian debt it has to be taken in context (which you didn’t do).

-Finally, you also compared Canada’s GDP against other countries (like the US) over the past 4 decades. Again, a 5 second scroll through 1980-present shows the GDP of ALL developed countries fell comparatively over the past few decades against developing countries. No surprises there. The developed countries seem to trade spots, with Canadian results outshining it’s comparables one year, and other years being outshined.

Conclusion: Wrong. Canada’s economy is clearly following the same trends as other developed economies around the world. Actually, we seem to be doing better recently and improving in comparison (look at the past decade).

MF

*********

Thanks MF, for deconstructing this willfully misleading info bile and gastric juice. This CPC mouthpiece may well be one of the myriad disinformation trolls that do the bidding of communist china and russia. I’ve called him out before and he slunk away like a flaccid d*ck in a foreskin.

Sadly, we allow this because of our freedom of expression – they would NEVER allow Canadian citizens to live in china or russia and blog/publicly post dissenting/critical views of the government…willfully lying in a vain attempt to destabilize the west; planting seeds of doubt and frustration. One only has to look at the US to see how effectively the post-modernist/marxists have cultivated dissension throughout our Universities over the last forty+ years -the last century’s class war is this century’s race war.
Then, offer up hope to the masses in the form of “fairness of outcome” regardless of the disparity of competence/levels of the inputs. These are the steps to socialism – and the democratic party in the US and the left media have been working overtime to fan these flames for years.

If you are at all surprised by what we’re seeing today, you have not been paying attention. This is textbook roll-out.

Let us be attentively guarded against this insidious threat.

M56BC

#134 milly on 08.04.20 at 2:45 pm

I mean all this is true.
Diversify your equity exposure. EXCEPT, when it comes to Tesla. BUY BUY BUY BUY

#135 Dawn Peters on 08.04.20 at 2:50 pm

Bill they are going to crash it all soon. Stock, real estate markets went up in Venezuela too but the money is worthless now anyway.

I never mentioned buying bonds. My point was it does not matter pointing to fake inflation and other inflation numbers.

#136 kingston boy on 08.04.20 at 2:57 pm

@#103 Jane24 on 08.04.20 at 2:13 am
You know what guys, life doesn’t last forever. If you are over 65 stop chasing and worrying about the best return and start spending and enjoying your money. That is what it is for. This is why when you were younger you gave up the jam and managed with the bread. One never knows when that truck is coming with your name on it.
———————

soooo true.
life is a crapshoot after 60.
If you’re not supremely healthy its probably closer to 50.

#137 Ben on 08.04.20 at 2:57 pm

Garth, can you share a 60/40 model portfolio showing which ETF classes you would suggest for each type of account (TFSA, RRSP, etc.)?

#138 Joe on 08.04.20 at 3:04 pm

Garth you had asked what “fake money” means as a reply to one of my posts here.
Fake money (from the printing press); real money (from providing goods and services). 67% now is fake money vs 90% in 1980s.
Hence why markets and real estate have been rising ever so.

#139 Bill on 08.04.20 at 3:19 pm

Like I said lock down is absolute BS. Here its free wake the hell up people.
http://wrongaboutlockdown.com

#140 Tyler Durden on 08.05.20 at 12:40 am

What about US Reits and US prefs? International REITs and international prefs?

#141 WTF on 08.05.20 at 3:29 pm

Im thinking no fall election…..T2 popularity sliiiding, this guy loathes T2 and he is a Liberal

warrenkinsella.com

Time for Butts, Telford and their pliable Boss to ramp up the ” bribe the electorate off with their own money and their kids and their grandkids……..”

Worked so well with the Wynne Govt. till it didnt.