The crash

– Ksuksa Raykova photo

“We’re doing a story about the potential for a residential real estate crash,” the email from glitzy mag Toronto Life read. “The premise is basically that prices have held steady for the past few months, despite crippling economic conditions, so does that mean the bottom will inevitably fall out?”

A follow-up phone call materialized from the editor (I explained no crash was near). Then another note arrived. Housing is a hot thing these days. Apparently, even bigger than the virus and glory holes. ‘Okay,” I relented. ‘Send me the questions.’

“Has anything surprised you about how the market reacted during the pandemic? Pls explain.”

The current market sucks. Bidding wars. Blind auctions. Bully bids. Multiple offers. Prices rising double-digits. Many are incredulous how this could take place in the midst of a global pandemic with the downtown core a ghost city and a withering 13% unemployment rate in the GTA. Eight million Canadians have been on government pogey for four months, and the GDP has crashed the most on record. Yet when it comes to real estate, we’re partying like it’s 2017 again.

The reasons are profound, and temporary. There was no spring market in 2020, since we were all going to die of Covid, and stayed home in our underwear. Hence a big pent-up demand once it appeared life was going to carry on. What normally happens in April this year took place in June.

Second, lots of demand was unleashed on scant inventory. Available listings shrank faster than a dude in the Humber when the virus arrived. Live showings halted. Owners were totally unwilling to have anyone view their homes. The choices for buyers once public fears started to dissipate were thin. Good properties were immediate objects of desire and competition. Prices popped.

Third, money’s cheap. Ridiculously cheap. The major lenders are quietly giving mortgages for less than 2% on a five-year term. Even decade-long loans are 2.5%. As central banks rushed to rescue the economy from the pandemic, rates were slashed and billions thrown at buying up mortgage securities. Liquidity is sloshing over the gunnels. As mortgage costs decline, of course, people can borrow more money on the same income. So they are. The fact we no longer have any fear of excessive debt is driving real estate higher, unwisely.

But these things are temporary. The demand surge will temper. More properties will hit the MLS. Unemployment will stay elevated. Any economic or public health reversal now could make those who overpaid in June regret things in November.

“You mentioned the likelihood of a potential residential real estate crash is “basically zero.” Can you flesh out how you came to that conclusion?”

Sure. If this were Calgary or Kelowna or Windsor, a protracted period of decline would be no surprise. Lots of places in Canada will have many problems for the next couple of years. But the GTA will fare better, because of a highly diversified local economy, the financial core, migration and the synergy of a six-million-strong market.

No, no crash – which we’d define as a 20% price correction. But this does not mean a rosy market, either. There are several worrisome trends.

“You mentioned there might be a flatlining in the 416. What factors do you think would contribute to that? How long would you expect that to last before prices recover?”

After this little boomlet, it reasonable to expect a far different market to emerge. As mentioned, swollen unemployment is not going to shrink anytime soon. It will be well in 2021 before we get back to the levels of February. Second, a serious number of people deferred mortgage payments,  ending in the next few months. An unknown number will still be without work and forced to sell, so more listings. Also many coming up for renewal may be unpleasantly surprised at the reception they get from lenders who were just denied six months of payments.

And big troubles with condos. Airbnb has collapsed. Pre-virus, the GTA had over 21,000 short-term rental properties. Hundreds of those have been hitting the market lately, with thousands more to come. Add to this the 15,000 units coming available as new construction is completed over the next two years. Supply will overwhelm demand. This is why condo prices and rents will decline, pulling the entire market back.

Finally, the virus. It freaked out millions. No surprise that detached sales in 416 have actually declined while those in the boring, soulless expanse of 905 have jumped. People want backyards. Front doors to the street. No elevators or garbage rooms, corridors or parking garages. Besides, Covid showed that a lot of companies can function perfectly well with employees working remotely. So no need to spend three hours a day on the QEW and Gardiner Expressway. The burbs are suddenly sexy. The clogged Kingdom of 416 is tarnished.

“How do you think it would impact the market if there was a much-dreaded second wave of coronavirus?”

Like an asteroid. Combine that with joblessness, more shutdowns, the condo plop, mortgage deferral cliff, CMHC rule tightening (no more HELOCs to finance rental props) and more risk-averse lenders and the market would be a smoky hole in the ground for at least a year. Until the vaccine.

But why would this happen? We’re all wearing masks now. Leaping off the sidewalks from each other. Lining up like ducks at the grocery store. Washing hands all day and bathing in sanitizer. This is not March. The authorities are not going to lock down society or turn off the economy again. If infections rise and hotspots develop, so be it. The virus risk ain’t going to zero. It never will. And it will be a long, long time before the herd is dosed and social distancing ends.

The best time is to buy a house is when you need it and can truly afford it. And the worst time to do that would probably be now.

146 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 08.02.20 at 11:42 am

The deck has been stacked against us.
Local cities are overrun.
Why the blazing push toward socializing losses?
In my big-city council a long standing dare I say lifetime elite member has their own Wikipedia entry.
It states they served five years as a provincial leader of the Communist Party of Canada.
You can’t make up this stuff.

It’s here folks. This crisis gives all levels of government unlimited unchecked powers.
Just watch them.

A Certificate of vaccination ID (Covid) will be required to get back to any semblance of freedom. Travel, assembly, commerce etc.
This is the New System. A global slave system whereby *everything* becomes reward-based. For your compliance. Or else

#2 Chris on 08.02.20 at 11:52 am

Only thing stopping a ‘crash’ of 20% more is the Bank of Canada openly stating they will continue to protect the ‘too big to fail’ homeowners who are over leveraged. Almost encouraging them to keep going with their stupidity.

The economic ramifications of the pandemic have yet to fully reverberate through the economy.

My large employer is laying off people making $80k -$100k all over the place and they tell me they are totally panicked about paying mortgages they couldn’t afford before. I’m hearing this is merely starting to happen at other large employers from friends and family too.

The amount of debt is a tinder box waiting to catch fire.

#3 Tom on 08.02.20 at 11:58 am

It’s here folks. This crisis gives all levels of government unlimited unchecked powers.
Just watch them.

——-

You read too many conspiracy theories. The system isn’t out to get you. Sit back, crack a beer, and enjoy the weather. Sheesh..

#4 Sail Away on 08.02.20 at 12:06 pm

Don’t miss the live Crew Dragon splashdown at 2:48 EDT today.

If successful, expect all thing Elon to go hyperbolic.

#5 Flop... on 08.02.20 at 12:11 pm

Just got back from the hospital.

A few observations from the trip.

The hospital wasn’t busy, but that’s no surprise for 8 am on a Sunday.

I thought all staff would be wearing masks, some were, some weren’t.

I went by the homeless encampments in Strathcona Park.

Wowee!

Hundreds and hundreds of tents, and motor homes parked where you would park if you had to drive to take your mutt for park playtime.

Don’t see that ending well.

Also through Chinatown saw a giant ‘Wanted’ poster of Mark Zuckerberg that a couple of weeks ago I perhaps would have ignored.

Similar to this one.

Friends Of Canadian Broadcasting.

https://mobile.twitter.com/friendscb/status/1268256245229764609

I went looking for an image and stumbled on their Twitter page.

“We’ve plastered the country with these giant posters. Now it’s your turn: tell PM
@JustinTrudeau
to legislate Facebook and stop this thievery.”

For those unaware, Australia has just completed framework to force the tech giants pay for news content.

I used to go camping on long weekends, now I hang out at hospitals during pandemics…

M46BC

#6 Phylis on 08.02.20 at 12:13 pm

Awww, you could have given the keep your rent guy a plug.

#7 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.02.20 at 12:27 pm

The crash is definitely on the way!

Enjoy it, SHYSTERS!

#8 Tom from Mississauga on 08.02.20 at 12:33 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/morneau-sells-morneau-shepell-shares-1.4410729

Yah, “Wild Bill” needs to go Garth. Finally a CBC story worth reading, from Nov 2017.

#9 Ronaldo on 08.02.20 at 12:35 pm

#1 Turner Nation

A Certificate of vaccination ID (Covid) will be required to get back to any semblance of freedom. Travel, assembly, commerce etc.
This is the New System. A global slave system whereby *everything* becomes reward-based. For your compliance. Or else
—————————————————————-
I don’t think your too far off on that one. That could very well be what we are facing because many people will not be wanting to be vaccinated especially if there is an alternative.

Trudy is now pushing the App for tracking those who have been infected. This required people to download the App and if they happen to get tested and find that they are infected with Covid, they would indicate that on their I Phone.

Here is where this makes no sense. If a person is found to be infected they will be either be hospitalized or sent home to isolate. Once they are free of the virus why on earth would they need to indicate this on their I Phone.

It’s not like they are told that they have the virus and they are going to go around freely advertizing to people who come near them that they are infected. Some things just make no bloody sense.

#10 zee on 08.02.20 at 12:44 pm

Crazy, how no one wants to ask how are people passing the stress test when a few months ago at lower prices they could not and everyone in the real estate industry was complaining.
no one even talks about it and this was a election issue just 6 months ago.
are lenders not enforcing it because they are desperate for business and if so what are the consequences from the federal agency.

#11 Keen Reader on 08.02.20 at 12:48 pm

Gotta love “follow-up calls, indeed! Mine yesterday:
Nurse: so you were exposed to COVID a week ago…
Me: yes, a pilot I flew with got tested the day after and was positive.
Nurse: you now need to quarantine for 14 days.
Me: I got tested four days later, negative, and you cleared me; what changed?
Nurse: the test only covers the period up to the test, not subsequent exposures.
Me: oh, really… (Pause, no bite… ) But I had no exposure since that flight.
Nurse: we’ve reassessed and decided you need to isolate…
Me: Do I need a second test, to “really” clear it up this time?
Nurse: no, you have no symptoms and tested negative, so you’re not at risk.
Me: WTF

Can’t wait for TurnerNation to explain how she’s a cog in the machine, not merely a snowflake!

#12 Bill on 08.02.20 at 12:57 pm

I agree Garth and Turner Nation bang on.
Thank god i bailed from Van city eons ago.
2 min to the ocean or many lakes with drinkable water. Osters clams crabs prawns with near nobody. I might be able survive communism here. Thats T2s and the rests plan.. not Trump. Most have everything backwards. I have undeniable proof, Im rich and most have a loan on their car granite and bed. Just do the opposite of the heard. Thats what Garth teaches.

#13 TurnerNation on 08.02.20 at 1:10 pm

#3 Tom wait till next year’s tax bill. Then tell me.

Pouring rain and I see long lines of masked people outside grocery store. Is this any way to live, an open air prison camp? Wait until frigid temps hit.
Some say ‘Distancing’ was used against POWs to drive them nuts. I’d say it’s working – the masks only re enforce fear and keep the herd docile.

They keep ratcheting it down. First it was limiting of capacity and distancing. Then they added masks.
Why would you still require then the first two?
Pure collective punishment and to prevent any protesting of the New System.

The mind control being employed is perfection.
“Even if you are totally healthy you might be sick”.
The double bind. You have not right to sickness nor any method of proving your health.

#14 Rico on 08.02.20 at 1:13 pm

Interesting. Why do you think there will be a protracted decline in Kelowna?
Demographics, escapees from YVR, climate all favor more, not less migration to the Okanagan.

#15 WE MIGHT AS WELL CLEAN THIS UP on 08.02.20 at 1:18 pm

EXPECT RUN ON MINI WAREHOUSE / STORAGE LOCKER SPACES ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS THE BANKERS AND LENDERS START PREPARING FORECLOSURE ACTIONS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. PEOPLE ARE GOING TO NEED PLACES TO STOW ALL THE CRAP THEY HAVE BEEN BUYING AND COLLECTING OVER THE YEARS

#16 Bill on 08.02.20 at 1:21 pm

How do you control the people?
Gov wants a dumb down highly indebted or poor popullation.
Canadians are some of the most passive ignorant people. Didnt say they werent nice. Check out the govs debt add your CC, mortgage ect ect ect and do some math.You are broke…you see when a crissis happens you have no dry powder available to get yourselves through. They prefer and thats T2, the communist, that you are dependant on the state. Thats how they takeover of your freedoms and rights. Sooooooo foolish. Accept Turner Nation has got it figuered out. Anyone else? Welcome to scocialism and debt slavery. I bet 1 in a thou owns any gold or silver…thay cant print that YET. Yes the stock market went up in Zimbabwe for a reason. Currecey debasement..Wake up suckers

#17 conan on 08.02.20 at 1:23 pm

It could be anytime, but probably several more months.
The crash will commence soon after the sale of “starter homes” peters out. That is the grease that makes the engine of real estate run.

#18 Bill on 08.02.20 at 1:27 pm

#12 TurnerNation on 08.02.20 at 1:10 pm
We should get a beer but you have to come here. Ive got deer bear cougers (not old women looking for a lad) seafood galore and zero issues with covid. I call it Heaven

#19 Deplorable Dude on 08.02.20 at 1:27 pm

Sooo…if the Chinese develop a vaccine, would you take it?

Sure. TikTok is good. – Garth

#20 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.02.20 at 1:37 pm

4 Sail Away on 08.02.20 at 12:06 pm
Don’t miss the live Crew Dragon splashdown at 2:48 EDT today.

If successful, expect all thing Elon to go hyperbolic.
————————————-
Thanks for the heads up. But, as you probably heard, the NHL is back, and there is a hockey game on at that time.
Jeez, it’s a tough choice, but I’m gonna watch the game, same as 99 % of my com-patriots.
Go Habs, Canucks, Leafs, Oilers, Flames, Jets, Go.

#21 Tom on 08.02.20 at 1:38 pm

#12 Turnernation re $
#3 Tom wait till next year’s tax bill. Then tell me.

You indicated the crisis would give the government new unchecked powers. Last I checked, taxation is a power they’ve always had. What exactly is your argument here?

Re: “First it was limiting of capacity and distancing. Then they added masks.
Why would you still require then the first two?”

Are you really that dense? If your parents told you not to run with scissors and then later told you not to run with knives, did you argue you could now run with scissors again? Your argument is akin to that level of logical fallacy and nonsense. Distancing and capacity restrictions reduce risk. So do masks. They are *cumulative* risk reductions, not replacements for each other. If two independent risk-reducing actions each reduces risk by 50%, the cumulative reduction is 75%, not 50%.

You need to go back and retake your remedial math classes, and maybe one in common sense as well, as you seem to be sorely lacking in both departments.

#22 Bill on 08.02.20 at 1:40 pm

“The system isnt out to get you”
Really!? It already did. My kid and partner both need to work and could barrly afford to have have kids. Wages stagnate for years while groceries housing taxes and insurance go up and up for 2 decades. There are more hidden taxes, env fees, tariffs not to mention carbon tax….
Kids are pays ng ICBC $3000 insurance a year to drive a $4000 car.
Wait till what comes next. I called the 2009 crash and this one…I know what comes next. Just working on the timing. Yes my $800k cash at 2.5% did well while markets crashed. It was like making 25 points over night. Then i loaded up On PM stocks now up 150%. The sysyem got you not me. Heres an email if you need proof [email protected]. net worth 8mil no debt. I did that being a cell tech not a Dr. The systems a joke.

#23 Know of a guy ... on 08.02.20 at 1:48 pm

#15 WE MIGHT AS WELL CLEAN THIS UP on 08.02.20 at 1:18 pm

EXPECT RUN ON MINI WAREHOUSE / STORAGE LOCKER SPACES ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS THE BANKERS AND LENDERS START PREPARING FORECLOSURE ACTIONS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. PEOPLE ARE GOING TO NEED PLACES TO STOW ALL THE CRAP THEY HAVE BEEN BUYING AND COLLECTING OVER THE YEARS
——————————————————–
who was living in a rented storage locker. A friend who was renting space there used to see him shaving in the morning before heading out.
Came back from a trip last Thursday morning from the interior of BC and saw a huge line of RV’s heading east on the freeway … getting a jump on the long weekend I guess.

#24 John on 08.02.20 at 1:50 pm

What if you desperately need a house but can’t afford it?

#25 it cant happen here! on 08.02.20 at 1:51 pm

Yesterday some politician was ‘begging’ Ontarians to download some app. I always keep my androids at home..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=562&v=HkHvKWr41kA&feature=emb_logo

#26 Atlas on 08.02.20 at 1:53 pm

Garth…you’ve been predicting a crash in 416 real estate for 10 years. I’ve been waiting with lots of cash. Sounds like you have given up and now figure a “flattening” is the downside? You should have sent me the memo! Any room in Nova Scotia?
Cheers

Wrong. The blog has consistently suggested no crash in 416, no matter how much some people want one. The reasons are as stated. – Garth

#27 Ace Goodheart on 08.02.20 at 1:57 pm

It is actually already required, that a person vaccinate themselves prior to travelling to large parts of the world.

The disease? Yellow fever. Endemic throughout tropical South and Central America.

Mandatory vaccination for travel is not new.

I used to know a jogger. She got up at 5am every day and ran for kilometers. I thought she was nuts. She looked awful. All that jogging was not good for her.

Eventually she had to give it up. After many “sports surgeries” her doctor finally gave her the bad news. Her knees were wrecked. If she jogged another day, she would end up in a wheel chair?

Moral of the story? Human beings descended from monkeys. Monkeys live in trees. Our bodies are not designed for long distance running. We are not leopards or cheetahs. Running is best accomplished on all fours. Our back bones are not made for that. Two legged running is horribly inefficient and the weak spot is the human knee, which is not built to take that kind of stress.

What does this have to do with a pandemic?

Well, people are also, by nature, socially distanced.

Our bodies are not built for mass socialization. We are too vulnerable to airborne pathogens.

In the last 100 years or so, human beings, creatures that have always existed in a state of social distancing, have suddenly all mixed together. Air travel has made us one big connected group.

We have not had a chance to evolve better defence mechanisms to deal with this sudden change.

Historically, when populations have suddenly mixed, the results have not been good. Native North and South Americans died in the millions when Europeans introduced their viruses and diseases into the populations.

We have received a warning shot from nature in the form of COVID. We are not sufficiently evolved to do what we are doing.

#28 Bill on 08.02.20 at 1:58 pm

Fauci agrees ” The sysem is not out to get you”
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/tyler-o-neil/2020/07/31/dr-fauci-theres-no-inconsistency-in-banning-church-and-business-but-allowing-mass-protests-n737783

#29 Tripp on 08.02.20 at 2:10 pm

We live in Ottawa’s Leslie Park, a west-end low(mid?)-range neighbourhood.

There is a mix of townhomes (~$400k), semis (~$450k) and singles (~500-700k). All are built 40-50 years ago, mostly by Campeau, with 2×4 walls and uninsulated basements, low Q shingles and siding. We’ve been to few open houses recently, without exception, all basements had a musty smell; the furnaces are due to be replaced 2nd time, the yards need work, some of the major; some roofs need urgent replacement and so does the vinyl siding.

Bottom line, everything doubled in the past 15 years, and the houses are only getting older. We wouldn’t pay today’s price for our place, it’s just not worth it. Nonetheless, very few are on the market for more than 2-3 weeks. It’s unreasonable, unrealistic and the fundamentals are not supporting this. Pandemic aside, the times are asking for a correction.

#30 NoOneOfConsequence on 08.02.20 at 2:17 pm

Some of the expressed viewpoints are…exhausting…in their stupidity and extremism. Thank goodness I have the luxury of skipping over the names I recognize as being idiots who write stupid stuff. How their family puts up with these attitudes, one will never know.

Thanks again for keeping at the blog Garth…I have learned a lot, applied it, and passed on your principles to my friends, family and children(those that listen anyways!).

I really appreciate all you put up with to keep this site going. Your hard work and dedication is inspiring.

#31 Stan Brooks on 08.02.20 at 2:18 pm

Hm,

20 % correction for GTA is return to 2017-2018 close to peak bubble levels.

I have been hearing from this blog predictions about real estate correction since 2010 when prices in GTA were 1/3 from the current.

Apparently melt up of 250 % from those levels is ‘correction’.

With the above logic Mexico city, the capital of the largest US trading partner with 20 millions population should experience shacks selling for 5 millions +. BTW the weather there is much nicer.

I would qualify the statement that in a place with average before taxes household income of 75 k ever depreciating currency a detached home in the city proper and some suburbs, i.e Vaughan and Mississauga are ‘worth’ 1.5-1.7 millions while shitty condos with maintenance and taxes comparable to rent are ‘worth’ 800k – 1.2 millions as the very definition of insanity.

Keep looking for working debt slaves to pay those prices folks, keep looking, I am sure if you wait long enough they will come.

Cheers,

#32 MF on 08.02.20 at 2:20 pm

#16 Bill on 08.02.20 at 1:21 pm

This entire blog is about eschewing debt and investing properly for the future. It’s a philosophy many of us live by.

So who are you talking to?

By the way, nobody forced anyone to take on debt. People make bad choices. Man lands on moon.

MF

#33 Tulips on 08.02.20 at 2:21 pm

The best time is to buy a house is when you need it and can truly afford it. And the worst time to do that would probably be now.

—————————————————————–

Looking back, now is the worst time, yes. Prices and debt higher than ever, and unemployment too. But with artificially suppressed interest rates and a bond market driven by central bank hoovering, I’m guessing this is probably the best time to buy a property in the next decade as inflation will drive asset prices through the roof. Can’t wait forever, and it will only be the worst time for a little while until an even worse time comes around the corner.

#34 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.02.20 at 2:22 pm

#11 Keen Reader on 08.02.20 at 12:48 pm sez:

“Gotta love “follow-up calls, indeed! Mine yesterday:
Nurse: so you were exposed to COVID a week ago…
Me: yes, a pilot I flew with got tested the day after and was positive.
Nurse: you now need to quarantine for 14 days.
Me: I got tested four days later, negative, and you cleared me; what changed?
Nurse: the test only covers the period up to the test, not subsequent exposures.
Me: oh, really… (Pause, no bite… ) But I had no exposure since that flight.
Nurse: we’ve reassessed and decided you need to isolate…
Me: Do I need a second test, to “really” clear it up this time?
Nurse: no, you have no symptoms and tested negative, so you’re not at risk.
Me: WTF

Can’t wait for TurnerNation to explain how she’s a cog in the machine, not merely a snowflake!”
———————————————————-
Does no one else find this alarming?

#35 bob on 08.02.20 at 2:23 pm

Garth, I have nothing to gain from being right, so I hope I am wrong.

Reasons why we might get a second wave:

– kids going back to school == new vector for infections

– higher risk businesses opening (e.g. bars, restaurants, nail salons, gyms)

– increase limits on social gathering

– covid-fatigue, people thinking it is safe now and letting guard down

– sports. e.g. soccer is a non-contact sport, but it ain’t. heavy breathing, grabbing, body protecting the ball…. Now add in basketball, baseball, etc

– going back to work = public transportation = more crowding.

There’s been spikes everywhere that have opened up. So Garth, the better question is, why do you believe that we WON’T get a second wave?

I think this is all about risk acceptance. Governments are willing to open up… and open up to a certain threshold of infections.

Viral infections are not the biggest societal worry. It’s another lockdown. No way politicians will risk that again. Like I said, live with it. – Garth

#36 MF on 08.02.20 at 2:24 pm

1 Keen Reader on 08.02.20 at 12:48 p

You’ll have to get in line for that one.

We are still waiting for TurnerNation to explain how he blamed the “elite globalists” for shutting down borders, stopping immigration, reducing the flow of goods worldwide, and on-shoring manufacturing.

Crickets so far.

MF

#37 To the point. on 08.02.20 at 2:38 pm

Just finishing my avocado and day-dreaming over an amazing Vancouver view. Seems to me that some posts and some comments here just cannot see the other person’s perspective. In this case, here we have the umpteenth post about the supposed decline of condo living in Canada’s RE market. Well – don’t let the self-justifying and golden years nostalgia get in the way of reality.

IMO, condo towers may not be the perfect lifestyle choice for everyone but they are not going anywhere and the per square foot price is not falling. First of all, they don’t come with their own DIRT. You know, a weed-infested, doggie-doo yard surrounding a musty basement and maybe a not so perfect foundation. Do I have to work my way up from there to the leaky shingles and critters crawling in the walls?

I have lived in small-town Canada and appreciate the sameness, the so-called normalcy. God bless you if the neighbours are all kind and quiet. Good luck when they are not. They complain over the fence. They spy who comes and goes. Your business is their business.

Get my point? Condo anonymity can keep everyone civil. In my building, the gym may be closed but the pool is a nice alternative for relaxation. The strata council and admin even help match up those elderly and Covid-vulnerable to the young and active for assistance with grocery or pharmacy runs. Besides offering personal freedom (hey nothing beats a condo for security when you lock it up and just fly away on vacation), lots of financial flexibility whether calling it home or renting to others (no rent drops here), condos, like suburbs and small towns, are community too.

Van condo prices have fallen an average of $34 per foot, a recent survey found. – Garth

#38 Maxedout on 08.02.20 at 2:44 pm

Density density density… city councils and bureaucrats have been preaching it for years to fill their taxation coffers and satisfy property developers.600 sq ft rabbit hutches in 30 story + buildings .The dream which is now a nightmare.
Covid has changed this.Watch condo pricing in crowed cities depreciate and more politicians wanting to increase immigration to fill them.Bad news for all .

#39 Tripp on 08.02.20 at 2:47 pm

#34 bob on 08.02.20 at 2:23 pm

The reason we’ll get a second wave is that (according to Bonnie Henry) all the pandemics in recorded history had it, or even the 3rd and the 4th. No politics, just statistics. Whether we shutdown or not, we will have it(them).

And without a lockdown, they won’t matter (unless you succumb). – Garth

#40 Yuus bin Haad on 08.02.20 at 2:57 pm

So the WHO goes to all the trouble of coming up with a spiffy official name for the 2019 novel coronavirus and now it’s just “covid”. That says it all right there.

#41 Jean-Jacques-Beaujacques-des-Laurentides on 08.02.20 at 2:58 pm

Anyone else fed up with the fat old grey beards on their Harleys with modified mufflers making a God Damn racket as they drive through small rural towns? People live in these towns, own property, try to make a quiet life for themselves, and every weekend these flabby old men show up with their rumbling engines and their pathetic faux outlaw look. The only law they are breaking is disrupting the peace and quiet.

What peeves me most is that they leave their generic suburban smell holes to enjoy the countryside, a positive externality provided by people who choose to live here and protect the landscape and our quaint old villages that these losers then pollute with their noise machines from May to October.

Time to lobby our governments and tell them no more old men on their noise making Harleys who are compensating for their decreasing testosterone levels with loud modified mufflers.

Get a shave and a new wardrobe you old sad-sack men with your Harleys and leather vests.

#42 Dolce Vita on 08.02.20 at 3:05 pm

“..the herd is dosed.”

THAT was good.

and “sloshing over the gunnels”.

Onomatopoeia charms of the East.

-Thanks for gunnels Garth, used to use that word, forgot it and now it is back.

#43 willworkforpickles on 08.02.20 at 3:08 pm

Banks likely won’t let the/their cash cow real estate market falter to too great an extent in the coming months, but will likely allow for a correction/reset to the tune of 30 even 35% before stepping in with tactics used in the last recession. One such being the likes of a special reno tax credit stimulus the federal government provided the banks to offer homeowners to restart the economy. It was needed then…it will be needed again. What’s needed most is a little sanity within a current market that is anything but sane.
The banks win at any rate.

#44 Brian Ripley on 08.02.20 at 3:12 pm

“Third, money’s cheap. Ridiculously cheap.” Garth

Absurd eh? I see a rate of 1.84% on Ratehub for a 5 year fixed. Lenders outside of the CMHC mandate seem to be agnostic when it comes to risk. I suppose tax payers will be subsidizing this experiment at some point. One could argue that the middle class is already paying for it via reduced disposable income as more and more capital goes towards down payments, transfer taxes and rents.

Anyways not all is a rosy scenario. I have my 4 interest rate charts up now with the July data.

Here is the Yield Curve chart: http://www.chpc.biz/yield-curve.html

The 10yr less 2yr BoC bond inverted July 2019 for 8 months. Since then it’s been slightly positive for 5 prints, but those data points are tightly clustered and pointing down again.

The TSX Real Estate Index overlaid on the chart is clearly on a long term downtrend since 2004 when the 10yr-2yr plot also headed down into the March 2009 pit of gloom.

Are we setting up for 2 inversion periods?

Hey newbies… if you are buying real estate, consider the reliability of your cash flow… will it last as long as the first half of your amortization schedule where your payments are mostly going towards interest and much less towards principal?

#45 When the Whip Comes Down on 08.02.20 at 3:14 pm

When there is a second wave, I really don’t believe there will be any lockdown. Look at mandatory masks for certain and more distancing and another earnest efforts by all to adapt to more rigorous practices. I concede that I could have been more regular in physical distancing and I am sure many more folks than just me fall into this boat. Second wave, we’ll have learned a lot from the first. I am willing to do almost anything to avoid another lockdown and the economic consequences that go with it.

#46 Ignorance Is Bliss on 08.02.20 at 3:26 pm

Just renewed our mortgage, 5 yr. variable at 1.95%. Unlike Garth’s suggestion to lock in, I’ve found variable rates results in savings most of the time. And the penalties can be so HUGE for fixed rate terms, whereas you always know with variable that the penalty will just be 3 months’ interest. The banks can’t even tell you in any comprehensible way what your penalty will be when you go fixed rate.

Rates are unlikely to ever be lower. A variable will travel in only the one direction. And you saved 2 lousy basis points. Unwise choice. – Garth

#47 Flop... on 08.02.20 at 3:35 pm

Things are spiralling out of control down south.

The States?

No, keep heading south, and if you hit Antarctica you’ve probably gone to far.

Melbourne is about to go into lockdown for the third time.

8pm curfew, supermarkets shut at 7.45

5 km radius from your residence for exercising and shopping.

Just watched a game of Aussie Rules Football in faraway Perth, where they had fans back in the stadium with reduced capacity.

Melbourne might as well be on another planet.

Victoria has its borders shut with people trying to sneak around the crossings.

Construction is being urged to continue though.

Now, why would that be…

M46BC

“Stage four will mean the end for many businesses, with thousands more jobs set to be lost. Business will take a further hit with employees now also having to supervise school-age children at home again, and childcare centres closed for the first time,” he said. “Victorian businesses are going to need cash to survive these six weeks … then we’ll need certainty to build a runway so we can come out of this.”

#48 Dolce Vita on 08.02.20 at 3:40 pm

Posted it a few days ago late…GRIM 2nd Qtr 2020 GDP growth rates in EU and UK:

UK -19.1%
EU -11.9% (-15% vs. 2nd Qtr 2019)
Eurozone -12.1% (-14.4% vs. 2nd Qtr 2019)
Top 4 EU GDP growth rates by country:

Germany -10.1%
France -13.8%
Italy -12.4%
Spain -18.5%

Brothers Grimm.

—————————-

USA -32.9%
Gov Japan declared recession 3 days ago.

32.13% of Canadian GDP is Exports, 58.1% Consumer Spending.

HUGE holes for everyone to dig out from under nor does that bode well for 1/3 of the Cdn. economy (mercifully, only 8% of Cdn. workforce engaged in export industries).

#49 James Rath on 08.02.20 at 3:44 pm

Hey Ace

Exact opposite. We are built for long distance chases. An almost unique and powerful evolutionary advantage. These anatomical changes were so monumental that they spawned an entirely new genus called Homo. (Bill Bryson-The Body)

#50 Captain Uppa on 08.02.20 at 3:48 pm

I wish you wouldn’t broad brush paint the entire 905 as “the boring, soulless expanse…”.

There are many beautiful mature neighbourhoods with great main streets many wonderful amenities and small businesses.

I would much rather live in some of the 905 than the some of the 416. This coming from someone who was born and raised in the 416.

#51 Captain Uppa on 08.02.20 at 3:51 pm

Forgive me for the poor grammar and sentence structure of my previous post (the defence of 905).

Too much left thumb and index.

#52 Bill on 08.02.20 at 3:51 pm

#11 Keen Reader on 08.02.20 at 12:48 pm sez:
+1!
Garth yes no #2 Lock…they realize they crush a pile of business and jobs. Markets climb wall of worry and fear. Buy the fear sell the greed.
And people listen to guys like this! My BS detector is top notch.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/07/18/now-we-have-proof-dr-fauci-is-full-of-crap-and-cant-be-trusted-n661149

#53 Captain Uppa on 08.02.20 at 3:59 pm

Rates are unlikely to ever be lower. A variable will travel in only the one direction. And you saved 2 lousy basis points. Unwise choice. – Garth

————————————-

I am a fan of fixed mortgages during this time, but people often tell me variable is the way to go because you can always lock into a fixed during a variable.

Is true?

Yes, usually. But for 2 basis points why on earth would you risk missing that moment? False logic. – Garth

#54 Abc123 on 08.02.20 at 4:16 pm

#26Atlas on 08.02.20 at 1:53 pm
Garth…you’ve been predicting a crash in 416 real estate for 10 years. I’ve been waiting with lots of cash. Sounds like you have given up and now figure a “flattening” is the downside? You should have sent me the memo! Any room in Nova Scotia?
Cheers

Wrong. The blog has consistently suggested no crash in 416, no matter how much some people want one. The reasons are as stated. – Garth
————

It’s disingenuous of you Garth to focus on the symantics of your language on this blog throughout the over 10 year period you have been writing it . It is clear to all who have been reading you that you have warned of a decline in real estate prices throughout the years , often times cataclysmically. All your readers have the correct impression that you have been a bear on RE and that you have been wrong.

Own up to it. Much more honour in that .

Learn to read, not just emote. My language has been careful and clear – not all markets are the same. Real estate is local. Some regions will do horribly in the next couple of years, some will skate through with no big changes. By the way, we did not have a global pandemic ten years ago nor 1.97% five-year mortgages and a $343 billion annual deficit. When facts change, my views change. – Garth

#55 Dolce Vita on 08.02.20 at 4:19 pm

“..the herd is dosed.”

Coronavirus types vs. vaccines and/or prevention/treatment.

1. Common Cold: No Vaccine. Chicken Soup?

2. SARS: No Vaccine, still in development. Per UK NHS: “Do not travel to areas of the world where there’s an uncontrolled SARS outbreak.”

3. MERS: No Vaccine, still in development. Per WHO (paraphrased) “Avoid touching camels and camel products, use hygiene if you do.”

4. COVID-19: FILL IN THE BLANKS on your own.

———————————

Sorry to rain on everyone’s vaccine parade BUT you know, the truth shall set you free…more so than false hope.

AND

The great fleecing of World Wide Govs by the Pharma Industry. I wonder if Govs get a money back guarantee?

#56 Stone on 08.02.20 at 4:24 pm

This is not March. The authorities are not going to lock down society or turn off the economy again.

———

Wanna bet?

Have you taken a look at Melbourne, Australia? 6 week lockdown just implemented (6 weeks – Shiiiiit). Only one member of a household can go out at one time. Nightly curfew (sounds more like marshal law). Do your groceries within 5 km of your home. Wear a mask at all times when in public (not just when inside or near others – All. The. Time.).

Just change Melbourne for Wuhan. Sounds like the same methods, just a different city.

The only thing missing is bolting the doors to people’s homes closed. How soon until that occurs?

And you think that can’t happen in a place like Toronto, Montreal, Calgary, or Vancouver? Or Lunenburg? Do you really think people are any less stupid in any of these wonderful cities?

Think again.

#57 Don Guillermo on 08.02.20 at 4:27 pm

#20 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.02.20 at 1:37 pm
4 Sail Away on 08.02.20 at 12:06 pm
Don’t miss the live Crew Dragon splashdown at 2:48 EDT today.

If successful, expect all thing Elon to go hyperbolic.
————————————-
Thanks for the heads up. But, as you probably heard, the NHL is back, and there is a hockey game on at that time.
Jeez, it’s a tough choice, but I’m gonna watch the game, same as 99 % of my com-patriots.
Go Habs, Canucks, Leafs, Oilers, Flames, Jets, Go.
*************************************
If the Oilers just had a few more McDavids and a couple of McDefensemen they could be a contender!

#58 State of Disaster on 08.02.20 at 4:32 pm

“Viral infections are not the biggest societal worry. It’s another lockdown. No way politicians will risk that again. Like I said, live with it.”
– Garth
————————————————————————
Keep telling yourself that, Garth…..

The premier of Victoria, (Australia) plunged the region into a “state of disaster” on Sunday, announcing even stricter lockdown measures, introducing a nightly curfew and banning virtually all trips outdoors after Australia’s second largest state recorded 671 new infections in a single day.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/australia-s-victoria-declares-state-of-disaster-locking-down-millions-in-melbourne-as-virus-cases-soar-1.5048662

Then, of course, you will REALLY wish you didn’t just buy a $2 million house in Toronto or Vancouver. – Garth

#59 Don Guillermo on 08.02.20 at 4:32 pm

#31 Stan Brooks on 08.02.20 at 2:18 pm

With the above logic Mexico city, the capital of the largest US trading partner with 20 millions population should experience shacks selling for 5 millions +. BTW the weather there is much nicer.

*****************************************
So are the restaurants!!

#60 Don Guillermo on 08.02.20 at 4:47 pm

No more bank of mom and dad coming here too?

“Nationwide, the UK’s second-biggest mortgage lender, will restrict the contributions made by the so-called Bank of Mum and Dad.” “Nationwide has announced that first-time home buyers will now need to prove at least 75 per cent of the money they put down for a mortgage has come from their own savings.”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8584933/Nationwide-cracks-mortgage-borrowers-relying-parents-deposit.html

#61 Captain Uppa on 08.02.20 at 5:13 pm

Yes, usually. But for 2 basis points why on earth would you risk missing that moment? False logic. – Garth

———————————

I see your point. A big bank is offering me a 10 year at 2.7%. Tempting. If I can get an option to port, I could very well take it.

#62 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.02.20 at 5:13 pm

Actually, given the history of price to income ratios and the upcoming joblessness in the gta, I suggest the following adjustments over the next 2-3 years:

Condos – Down 75-85%

Houses – Down 60-75%

Realtor SHYSTERS – Down from 40,000 to 2,000

The gta is overextended in ways most are not even aware of. Debt will explode and the economy there will crater.

HAPPY HOUSING CRASH EVERYONE!

#63 DON on 08.02.20 at 5:19 pm

“Learn to read, not just emote. My language has been careful and clear – not all markets are the same. Real estate is local. Some regions will do horribly in the next couple of years, some will skate through with no big changes. By the way, we did not have a global pandemic ten years ago nor 1.97% five-year mortgages and a $343 billion annual deficit. When facts change, my views change. – Garth”

hallelujah hallelujah…..

I thought everyone knew this already, now i am really concerned. Most seem to be stuck in recency thinking.

When the variables change…you revisit your original analysis.

@ Flop

a couple weeks back Australia was celebrating their resilence and mimimual infection.

@Dolce

Thanks for the continued stats etc.

#64 Ronaldo on 08.02.20 at 5:30 pm

#61 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.02.20 at 5:13 pm
Actually, given the history of price to income ratios and the upcoming joblessness in the gta, I suggest the following adjustments over the next 2-3 years:

Condos – Down 75-85%

Houses – Down 60-75%

Realtor SHYSTERS – Down from 40,000 to 2,000

The gta is overextended in ways most are not even aware of. Debt will explode and the economy there will crater.

HAPPY HOUSING CRASH EVERYONE!
—————————————————————–
Have you been on vacation or were you stuck in an elevator?

#65 Drinking on 08.02.20 at 5:33 pm

Of course there will be a second and third wave. Just look what is happening in the Southern Hemisphere and now back to Europe. Once the kiddies are back in school, flu season and god knows what else will be thrown at us this winter we must prepare. As I stated before, (and got ridiculed for it) good to keep some in the market but markets are higher now; people need to make the decision if it is worth waiting another 10 yrs after this winter?? I know what I have done and do not lose a wink of sleep over it!

#66 Abc123 on 08.02.20 at 5:35 pm

Abc123 on 08.02.20 at 4:16 pm
#26Atlas on 08.02.20 at 1:53 pm
Garth…you’ve been predicting a crash in 416 real estate for 10 years. I’ve been waiting with lots of cash. Sounds like you have given up and now figure a “flattening” is the downside? You should have sent me the memo! Any room in Nova Scotia?
Cheers

Wrong. The blog has consistently suggested no crash in 416, no matter how much some people want one. The reasons are as stated. – Garth
————

It’s disingenuous of you Garth to focus on the symantics of your language on this blog throughout the over 10 year period you have been writing it . It is clear to all who have been reading you that you have warned of a decline in real estate prices throughout the years , often times cataclysmically. All your readers have the correct impression that you have been a bear on RE and that you have been wrong.

Own up to it. Much more honour in that .

Learn to read, not just emote. My language has been careful and clear – not all markets are the same. Real estate is local. Some regions will do horribly in the next couple of years, some will skate through with no big changes. By the way, we did not have a global pandemic ten years ago nor 1.97% five-year mortgages and a $343 billion annual deficit. When facts change, my views change. – Garth

———-

My reading comprehension is impeccable and the majority group opinion on this blog, that is , that you more than insinuated an over valued GTA market ,over the past ten years , is irrefutable. This is the market most here are interested in.

As for facts and views changing , agreed but that only lends to the conclusion that RE markets as well as financial markets , are impossible to predict .

Perhaps it’s best to stop

I agree. You should. – Garth

#67 [email protected] on 08.02.20 at 5:41 pm

It is a bit confusing, with all the bad/good news to-date, GTA will go up or down? should a house buyer to live in wait it out for a year or so expecting lower prices? Forecasts should always be clear just like the weather predictions?

#68 TurnerNation on 08.02.20 at 5:50 pm

#46 Flop so here’s some questions. If they didn’t test would anyone know it? Like are people coughing their lungs out or what
Is the health system so stellar there that they can process thousands of tests with total accuracy and so quickly? Any testing done here takes days or weeks for results – as we know.

#69 Bill Grable on 08.02.20 at 5:52 pm

After spending quite awhile living in Mexico – the comment about Mexico City overlooks the fact that it is one of the most polluted places on the Planet. I spent as little time in “El D.F.” as I could.

#70 Nonplused on 08.02.20 at 6:07 pm

#15 WE MIGHT AS WELL CLEAN THIS UP on 08.02.20 at 1:18 pm
EXPECT RUN ON MINI WAREHOUSE / STORAGE LOCKER SPACES ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS THE BANKERS AND LENDERS START PREPARING FORECLOSURE ACTIONS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. PEOPLE ARE GOING TO NEED PLACES TO STOW ALL THE CRAP THEY HAVE BEEN BUYING AND COLLECTING OVER THE YEARS

——————————–

THE CAPS LOCK BUTTON IS RIGHT ABOVE THE SHIFT BUTTON – PRESS TO TURN ON AND AGAIN TO TURN OFF.

I don’t expect to see that huge of a run on storage lockers because you have to pay rent for those too, plus get the stuff there somehow. I did expect to see more garage sales than I have so far though. Those should be as safe as shopping at Costco so I am not sure why they aren’t on like Donkey Kong.

A lot of evictions end in a “trash out”, where people just leave anything they can’t carry for the landlord to deal with. Most of it isn’t worth the bother of trying to sell so in comes a crew with a dumpster. Then comes a cleaning crew, drywallers, and painters because evicted tenants can be quite spiteful. So if you have any painting you need done I’d get a crew in now, if they aren’t all on CERB already.

#71 TurnerNation on 08.02.20 at 6:07 pm

And do you know who has curfews?
Children. (And prisoners). Once again they are infantising us. Everyone knows that if you go outside at 10pm you might get sick even wearing a mask. But not at 7pm. It’s just basic science !!
New System logic.

#72 Billy Buoy on 08.02.20 at 6:08 pm

100% agree with Mr. Turner: “Live with it.”

We are all going to pass one day and the odds of passing with the virus are far less than 1%.

Enjoy life while you can..

#73 Flop... on 08.02.20 at 6:12 pm

#62 DON on 08.02.20 at 5:19 pm

When the variables change…you revisit your original analysis.

@ Flop

a couple weeks back Australia was celebrating their resilence and mimimual infection.

////////////////

Hey Donnie, I trust you’re well.

I could probably clear a couple of things up.

I saw someone link a ctv article stating that Victoria is Australia’s second largest state.

It is actually the second smallest, size wise.

It is Australia’s second most populous state behind NSW.

Australia’s largest state,by size, containing nearly 33% of the country’s mass is Western Australia, where as I wrote in an earlier post, in a stadium this morning I watched a game of football with reduced capacity, but still tens of thousands of people in attendance.

Melbourne, under lockdown, crying under their Doona.

Perth, out and about, spilling tomato sauce on their best game day garments.

All very uneven, but population density seems to be a determining factor in a lot of places.

Victoria, even when there was some premature celebration never seemed to have things totally under control, and as we are seeing in the U.S, you could easily argue that certain things were opened up too early.

NSW and Victoria hate each other, always have, always will, and before this needed no further reason to clobber each other, but throughout the year there seems to been a sense that Victoria’s population, in particular Melbourne, did not take things as seriously as the people in Sydney and are now paying the price.

Mr Syd Ney and Mrs Mel Bourne, should probably just get a divorce…

M46BC

#74 kingston boy on 08.02.20 at 6:22 pm

@#61 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.02.20 at 5:13 pm
Actually, given the history of price to income ratios and the upcoming joblessness in the gta, I suggest the following adjustments over the next 2-3 years:

Condos – Down 75-85%

Houses – Down 60-75%

Realtor SHYSTERS – Down from 40,000 to 2,000

The gta is overextended in ways most are not even aware of. Debt will explode and the economy there will crater.

HAPPY HOUSING CRASH EVERYONE!
——————–

hey you’re back!
does this mean I can head up to the cottage now??

go leafs.

#75 kingston boy on 08.02.20 at 6:23 pm

@#58 Don Guillermo on 08.02.20 at 4:32 pm
#31 Stan Brooks on 08.02.20 at 2:18 pm

With the above logic Mexico city, the capital of the largest US trading partner with 20 millions population should experience shacks selling for 5 millions +. BTW the weather there is much nicer.

*****************************************
So are the restaurants!!
****************************************
So are the gangs!!

#76 Nonplused on 08.02.20 at 6:44 pm

#27 Ace Goodheart on 08.02.20 at 1:57 pm

“Moral of the story? Human beings descended from monkeys. Monkeys live in trees. Our bodies are not designed for long distance running.”

———————-

That is actually incorrect on both counts. Running and walking were key to human survival back in the day it was you, your trusty spear, and a hungry lion. The real problem is that the human body did not evolve under circumstances where it was expected to keep functioning as long as we live now. You can most clearly see this by counting up the number of men over 40 playing professional sports. No matter how good they were, they can’t train hard enough to keep up with the younger crowd. That’s also why in amateur sports there is an “over 35” league and also usually an “over 45” league. The 45 year olds simply can’t keep up with the 22 year olds, so they get their own league.

You can also see it in menopause. Nature simply did not expect there would be that many women over 45 who were still around to have children. So we evolved to get the babies out of the womb early. Delaying childbirth to the mid to late 20’s or even early 30’s is a new thing driven by science and social change; it’s not how nature did it. Nature kicks the process off closer to 12-14, although we would consider that a family tragedy today.

And technically we did not “evolve from monkeys”, although we share a common ancestor. We are much more closely related to bonobos and chimpanzees but we didn’t evolve from those either. Again, we had a common ancestor but chimpanzees and humans “co-evolved” from that common ancestor as each group specialized to a certain environment.

Anyway my dad has 2 brand new titanium knees and I guarantee you he never jogged a day in his life unless he was late for a plane. So the wheelchair forecast was probably exaggerated. They can do hips too I understand. None of it is fun though, after watching my dad go through the knee surgeries I wonder why he bothered.

#77 Tripp on 08.02.20 at 6:51 pm

#38 Tripp on 08.02.20 at 2:47 pm

And without a lockdown, they won’t matter (unless you succumb). – Garth

———————————————————

Garth, you are absolutely right, but there is no guarantee the second wave will be milder, the Spanish Flu second wave was the deadliest. It may or may not happen the same, we just don’t know.

The medical authorities don’t really know either, we just need to look at the contradicting messages we got from them during the past months. If there is too much uncertainty, preparing for the worst is the cautious way to go.

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.02.20 at 6:56 pm

@#2 Chris
“The amount of debt is a tinder box waiting to catch fire.”

++++
A very apt decription.

@#40 Jean Jacques Beaujolais
“no more old men on their noise making Harleys who are compensating for their decreasing testosterone levels with loud modified mufflers.”

++++

Ok , next time we’ll send these bikers to your village.
There wont be a fat, old, gray bearded, man in sight……..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dykes_on_Bikes

@#63 Ronaldo
“Have you been on vacation or were you stuck in an elevator?”
+++++

Alas, not in my elevator.

#79 Nonplused on 08.02.20 at 6:57 pm

#28 Bill on 08.02.20 at 1:58 pm
Fauci agrees ” The sysem is not out to get you”
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/tyler-o-neil/2020/07/31/dr-fauci-theres-no-inconsistency-in-banning-church-and-business-but-allowing-mass-protests-n737783

—————————

I would consider it to be more of a tactic admission that TPTB realize they can’t do anything about the protests short of opening fire (with lethal weapons). The folks that are packing fireworks with nails and shooting them at courthouses are not going to social distance because you told them to, whereas the church ladies might.

And, incidentally, Antifa was lovin’ the masks long before covid. If you are going to bash someone over the head with a bike lock in public with the cameras rolling, you want a mask.

#80 Nonplused on 08.02.20 at 7:05 pm

#34 bob on 08.02.20 at 2:23 pm

“– sports. e.g. soccer is a non-contact sport, but it ain’t. heavy breathing, grabbing, body protecting the ball…. Now add in basketball, baseball, etc”

—————————

I’m being petty but soccer is considered a contact sport. It just doesn’t allow “charging” (“checking to you hockey fans”) or “tackling”. Some amount of body contact is inevitable. Actually a great deal of body contact is inevitable. Tennis and volleyball are good examples of “non-contact” sports. And golf, if that is a sport.

#81 Trojan House on 08.02.20 at 7:20 pm

“The authorities are not going to lock down society or turn off the economy again.”

I’m not so sure about that because it’s actually happening in England and Australia, especially in Victoria where the measures for lockdown 2.0 are even more draconian than the first time around.

I have two predictions – the first being they will board up schools again probably two weeks in, but no more than a month after school starts, when there are some “outbreaks.”

Second, the so-called second wave will close everything down again because it will this time be mixed with flu season and good luck trying to figure out which one is which because the symptoms are virtually the same. So it will be back to house arrest until it all gets sorted out.

#82 Sail Away on 08.02.20 at 7:20 pm

Sometimes I like to enjoy a glass of organic water while relaxing in my Tesla as autopilot gently guides me towards my destination.

It’s a feeling I wish I could share with all you peons. You have to earn it so I can’t give it to you. Not many are worthy of this level of life. Those of you on my level, the few, congratulations.

#83 Flop... on 08.02.20 at 7:22 pm

Hey TN, I went to Vic Gov website and got this.

What’s new?

As of 2 August 2020, the total number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in Victoria is 11,557 with 671 new cases diagnosed since yesterday.

The overall total has increased by 626 with 45 cases being reclassified.

Of the new cases, 73 are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and 598 are under investigation.

There are 1,962 cases that may indicate community transmission, an increase of 148 since yesterday’s report.

385 people are in hospital, including 38 patients in intensive care.

Sadly, there have been seven new deaths reported since yesterday. To date, 123 people have died from coronavirus (COVID-19) in Victoria.

There are 6,322 cases currently active in Victoria. 4,915 people have recovered.

More than 1,633,900 test results have been processed by the department since 1 January 2020.

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-update

Nationally what is going on?

Here have a look at this table.

https://www.health.gov.au/resources/total-covid-19-tests-conducted-and-results

Closing in on 4.5 million tests, with less than 1% positve results in all states and territories.

Victoria does actually have the highest percentage at 0.7 but still extremely low.

I didn’t mind doing this for you, as we don’t have to pay for Google yet…

M46BC

#84 akashic record on 08.02.20 at 7:23 pm

And without a lockdown, they won’t matter (unless you succumb). – Garth

It never mattered at the first wave. Waiting for the experts, the politicians to admit they were all wrong to implement the lockdown. Due to the enormous damage to mankind they should never again be involved in any public policy decision.

#85 Trojan House on 08.02.20 at 7:28 pm

#21 Tom on 08.02.20 at 1:38 pm

Actually Tom, if you read the fine print, they say to wear masks when physical distancing is not possible. So Turner is in a way correct when he or she says now they require all 3 which doesn’t make sense.

#86 Bill on 08.02.20 at 7:35 pm

#78 Nonplused on 08.02.20 at 6:57 pm
LOL
My view is of TurnerNations….There is civil unrest globally. They had to get rid of the yellow jackets…Its started long time ago. Folks are fed up with the elites manipulating and stealing from the masses. The ANTIFA dog and pony is to bust up what is left of democracy. Now ANYTHING goes just wear a mask for the cameras! Trudeau and many other clowns have set it out loud… They like the communist model…You can stay in power for ever. Full speed ahead dam the torpedoes.
ON RE no crash for maybe 2 years but location location it wont matter to me.
The stock market could take a hit Sept Oct Id be careful there.
BUT is the market saying the economy all is clear? Don’t think so… OR is it a safe haven for debasing currency. GO WALL OF WORRY!
The loonie is a quarter and a C note is like a $20 to me.

#87 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 08.02.20 at 7:53 pm

#39 Yuus bin Haad on 08.02.20 at 2:57 pm
So the WHO goes to all the trouble of coming up with a spiffy official name for the 2019 novel coronavirus and now it’s just “covid”. That says it all right there.

/////////////////

I could explain it to you, but how about summoning a little intellectual curiosity and looking it up yourself?

I’ll even spot you the link.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it

#88 Craig on 08.02.20 at 7:53 pm

“No, no crash”

I like the double negative.

#89 devore on 08.02.20 at 7:53 pm

#62

When the variables change…you revisit your original analysis.

Unfortunately, we live in the current year, where everything is black and white, and everyone must be a dogmatic zealot with unchanging and unflinching views. No one is allowed to change, no one is allowed to be persuaded. You must simply listen and believe unconditionally, no dissent is allowed. Even if your position is provably, factually wrong, you must stick to it.

I don’t know how these people get through the day without their heads exploding. That’s why they constantly bring up things people said years, even decades ago, as if that gives them some kind of gotcha! victory. Hey, 10 years ago I was 10 years younger and things were different and I was a different person with a different life in a different world. Then things changed, and so did I. I am always ready to be persuaded with logic, reason and facts; bring them, and we’ll talk.

#90 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 08.02.20 at 8:03 pm

#81 Sail Away on 08.02.20 at 7:20 pm
Sometimes I like to enjoy a glass of organic water while relaxing in my Tesla as autopilot gently guides me towards my destination.

It’s a feeling I wish I could share with all you peons. You have to earn it so I can’t give it to you. Not many are worthy of this level of life. Those of you on my level, the few, congratulations.

//////////////

Red Alert! SA’s ego now threatens to expand in a fashion that surely violates Boyle’s law.

Come come, now. We know you’re not drinking water while on autopilot. You’re checking the current TSLA price and calculating your net worth (rounding UP) with your right hand, and with your left….

#91 MF on 08.02.20 at 8:13 pm

7 Ace Goodheart on 08.02.20 at 1:57
75 Nonplused on 08.02.20 at 6:44 pm

Ace I don’t know if you are correct.

Human beings need to be around others to become socialized and be productive members of a society. Any time personal contact with others is limited, development and independence is delayed. Natural social distancing would have produced descendants (us) that wanted no part with others. This is not the case.

Human beings and human societies function much better in groups, rather than alone. Evolutionarily speaking, hunting and child rearing is much more effective in groups. People everywhere seem to crave the company of others, even if they don’t know them personally. If you are strictly taking about the size of the group, the evidence is right in front of us. Look at the number of people living in massive cities worldwide. This is a reflection of those traits on a macro scale.

Your comment about natives and viruses requires some clarification too. It is true, the natives were decimated when novel diseases were introduced into their populations. However, evolutionary theory would state the survivors of the native population would be strong enough to still pass on their genes to their offspring, giving rise to children with stronger immune systems. Moreover, mixing disparate genetic populations clearly results in healthier offspring as the risk of recessive defects is reduced. Evolution says the opposite of what you say in that sense.

Nonplused,

You are correct, bodies break down in time. Reproductive capacity wains. But aging and ailments is very much a function of both lifestyle and genetics. Throw luck in there too. Not just genetics.

MF

#92 Damifino on 08.02.20 at 8:15 pm

#65 Abc123

I been reading this blog for ten years. I’ve found the real estate message to be quite consistent. Here’s what I’ve taken away…

Real Estate is one of many asset classes. It has no special status beyond the fact that, in the residential case, one may be able to inhabit it. Inhabiting it will, of course, involve many expenses that should be accounted when calculating gain but that is seldom done. Too much math.

RE is not very liquid. It can take a long time to sell and if it’s your principle residence it can be stressful if you’re in a hurry to relocate.

A large equity held for a long time is an opportunity cost. You haven’t made a dime until you sell. Then, after third parties have taken their cut you find yourself shopping for another ‘home/investment’ with reduced buying power unless you’re willing to downgrade.

A lot of real estate costs too much (thanks to exceedingly cheap money) and can’t possibly be cash flow positive. Potential capital gain is the only rationale to buy overpriced RE. That is what the namesake of this blog does (i.e the fool that follows). It’s terribly risky. This blog accepts that some risk is unavoidable but counsels readers in the sensible management of risk.

None of the above speaks to an imminent crash. It never has. Rather, it speaks to the foolishness of placing all one’s eggs in a single basket for poorly considered emotional reasons. Real wealth is more than real estate. In fact it need not involve real estate at all. And when it does it should be balanced against all other asset classes.

#93 Drinking on 08.02.20 at 8:18 pm

I just picked this up from the Financial Post; read if interested.

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/euro-area-plunges-into-a-deep-recession-that-may-take-years-to-recover-from/wcm/6d6ddd59-c612-4144-a601-c64f4023b7ee/

As I stated; whatever your beliefs are; just prepare; especially with human emotions and the damn bloody press.

#94 Bill on 08.02.20 at 8:25 pm

One needs to be vigilant or your kids could live under a tyrannical gov….just saying.
https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/the-trudeau-familys-love-of-tyrants/

#95 PBrasseur on 08.02.20 at 8:29 pm

No chance for a crash so long as cheap and easy credit is available. Easy credit is a given because backed by government. However interest rates can rise despite the efforts of the state, that is if and when investor lose confidence in the Canadian markets. This will happen eventually but predicting when is a futile exercise.

#96 Ronaldo on 08.02.20 at 8:33 pm

One of the better articles I’ve come across on pandemic.

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/04/01/what-if-covid-19-comes-in-waves-as-other-pandemics-have/

#97 Sail Away on 08.02.20 at 8:35 pm

#81 Sail Away on 08.02.20 at 7:20 pm

Sometimes I like to enjoy a glass of organic water while relaxing in my Tesla as autopilot gently guides me towards my destination.

It’s a feeling I wish I could share with all you peons. You have to earn it so I can’t give it to you. Not many are worthy of this level of life. Those of you on my level, the few, congratulations.

—————

Haha. You and me, pal. You and me.

Same name and everything!

The organic water is funny. I like New Zealand where you actually are allowed to drink and drive as long as you’re below the limit.

#98 Do we have all the facts on 08.02.20 at 8:38 pm

# 65 Abc123

The consistent theme on this blog is that devoting a disproportionate share of household income to the purchase and maintenance of a dwelling is not a sound investment. Each year the average price of housing increases the risk of a future decline in value also increases.

As more and more home owners began assuming debt through a HELOC the risk of getting in over ones head increased. Think about what it means when over 720,000 Canadian households are currently deferring monthly mortgage payments. Clearly the loss of employment created the kind of crisis Garth warned might happen.

The average Canadian household assumed debts that were 176% of their annual income and as a result their retirement plan became the future value of their dwelling.
All Garth could do was suggest that placing all their retirement eggs in a basket with one item that could possibly decline in value was short sighted.

Pretty sound advice when you consider the fallout caused by the Covid 19 lockdown.

based on the

close to 200 it means if of he risk of a future

#99 Ronaldo on 08.02.20 at 8:44 pm

#66 [email protected] on 08.02.20 at 5:41 pm
It is a bit confusing, with all the bad/good news to-date, GTA will go up or down? should a house buyer to live in wait it out for a year or so expecting lower prices? Forecasts should always be clear just like the weather predictions?
——————————————————————
Trying to predict what stockmarkets and housing prices are going to do is like trying to predict whether your marriage is going to last. You can’t, but you need to be prepared for it. I would think that that would be cause for concerns now with the pandemic lockdown. I hear from my daughter in law that there are many in her friends group where the marriage is falling apart and divorces on the way. Does not surprise me.

#100 The Woosh on 08.02.20 at 8:47 pm

#40 Jean-Jacques-Beaujacques-des-Laurentides on 08.02.20 at 2:58 pm
Anyone else fed up with the fat old grey beards on their Harleys with modified mufflers making a God Damn racket as they drive through small rural towns? People live in these towns, own property, try to make a quiet life for themselves, and every weekend these flabby old men show up with their rumbling engines and their pathetic faux outlaw look. The only law they are breaking is disrupting the peace and quiet.

What peeves me most is that they leave their generic suburban smell holes to enjoy the countryside, a positive externality provided by people who choose to live here and protect the landscape and our quaint old villages that these losers then pollute with their noise machines from May to October.

Time to lobby our governments and tell them no more old men on their noise making Harleys who are compensating for their decreasing testosterone levels with loud modified mufflers.

Get a shave and a new wardrobe you old sad-sack men with your Harleys and leather vests.

——————————————

I second the motion. The motion passes. LMAO when I read this. It’s so true. Like a plague of locusts.

#101 fishman on 08.02.20 at 8:57 pm

“liquidity sloshing over the gunnels”. The Garth is getting “maritimerized”. One time in the foolishness of youth we kept loading herring till we ran out of hold. Then calked the bottom of the dutch door with towels to keep the water out. I had to bring the boat up the Fraser almost to New West to pump out. Dare not slow down once I hit the fresh water. Already at near zero buoyancy in salt water. Had a crew waiting at the plant with heavy ropes & orders to throw the lines down quick once I stopped. Big price for herring. Liquidity was sloshing over the gunnels in more ways than one that morning.

#102 Christopher Dillon on 08.02.20 at 9:07 pm

The Philippine government introduced a two-week lockdown on Manila and surrounding provinces (population ~24 million) as the number of Covid-19 cases tops 100,000.

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1541438-20200803.htm

Stay safe!

#103 akashic record on 08.02.20 at 9:07 pm

Sooo…if the Chinese develop a vaccine, would you take it?
Sure. TikTok is good. – Garth

Haha… unshakable blind trust in totalitarianism. Tic-toc, human freedom…

#104 Dogman01 on 08.02.20 at 9:11 pm

When facts change my views change. – Garth

When my life experience changes my views change. It is called learning and thinking.

Without it I am a rock.

Our modern technology allows a record of our views to remain, but our thinking is not stagnant.

The weaponazation of old opinion is dangerous to the freedom to think. It stifles all discussion.

#105 San on 08.02.20 at 9:17 pm

My theory on why the market is so hot. Condo flee-ers have to live somewhere and they are choosing to live in houses. They’ve just spent the last 4 months being reminded why they shouldn’t be in a condo. So they are running for the hills and buying houses before their condo neighbors get them first. It isn’t pent up demand, it’s a realization of the increasingly limited supply of detached houses available to condo dwellers. If such attitudes prevail, detached house prices may prove robust.

#106 Gravy Train on 08.02.20 at 9:23 pm

#81 Sail Away on 08.02.20 at 7:20 pm
“[…] Not many are worthy of this level of life. Those of you on my level, the few, congratulations.” Your comments reminded me of the poem Ozymandias by Percy Bysshe Shelley. :P
https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/46565/ozymandias

#107 Alphonse Kehaulic on 08.02.20 at 9:36 pm

Always amusing to see commenters dissing what TurnerNation opines. They aren’t conspiracy theories. Just open your eyes a little, start using your 5 senses a little, and for god’s sakes turn off your damned TVs.
Can’t handle the truth of what’s here/coming or are you just naive?
Don’t worry, Ontario will open back up for business as usual in 2 weeks. Just 2 more weeks, promise…

#108 Stone on 08.02.20 at 9:38 pm

#19 Deplorable Dude on 08.02.20 at 1:27 pm
Sooo…if the Chinese develop a vaccine, would you take it?

Sure. TikTok is good. – Garth

———

Good of you to volunteer. I’ll just stand here observing behind the safety glass with my hand on the laboratory lock-down and incineration button.

#109 Ronaldo on 08.02.20 at 9:44 pm

#71 Billy Buoy on 08.02.20 at 6:08 pm
100% agree with Mr. Turner: “Live with it.”

We are all going to pass one day and the odds of passing with the virus are far less than 1%.

Enjoy life while you can..
—————————————————————–
Agree. You are more likely to die from taking a drug as prescribed than you are of this virus which according to some doctors is a wimp compared to say the Spanish Flu which killed an estimated 70 million people.

It is estimated that 128000 people die each year in the USA from taking drugs as prescribed. We don’t hear about that do we? Read this:

https://health.usnews.com/health-news/patient-advice/articles/2016-09-27/the-danger-in-taking-prescribed-medications

#110 FYI on 08.02.20 at 9:49 pm

@#105 Alphonse Kehaulic on 08.02.20 at 9:36 pm
Always amusing to see commenters dissing what TurnerNation opines. They aren’t conspiracy theories. Just open your eyes a little, start using your 5 senses a little, and for god’s sakes turn off your damned TVs.
Can’t handle the truth of what’s here/coming or are you just naive?
Don’t worry, Ontario will open back up for business as usual in 2 weeks. Just 2 more weeks, promise…
——–

tinfoil hats on sale at walmart.

#111 R on 08.02.20 at 9:49 pm

#40 Jean-Jacques-Beaujacques-des-Laurentides on 08.02.20 at 2:58 pm
Anyone else fed up with the fat old grey beards on their Harleys with modified mufflers making a God Damn racket as they drive through small rural towns? People live in these towns, own property, try to make a quiet life for themselves, and every weekend these flabby old men show up with their rumbling engines and their pathetic faux outlaw look. The only law they are breaking is disrupting the peace and quiet…..
—-
Goldwing owners feel your pain. True power is quiet.

#112 Bill on 08.02.20 at 9:51 pm

#94 PBrasseur on 08.02.20 at 8:29 pm
Harder to predict way out but doable when is gets close. Like this one was early Feb. Just watch people the masses pile aboard at the top.

#96 Sail Away on 08.02.20 at 8:35 pm
And me too..Only a Tesla LOL my CASE 580SM cost way more but its pretty slow but I can dig a hell of a hole.

To get to easy street by say 50 It takes a crap load of discipline understanding of the system hard work some luck but this peons in good shape. And boy I pulled a screwup along the way…Sold my large mini and RV storage I developed…CASH COW. Never sell RE just keep accumulating.
I love crashes everything goes on sale. You can capitalize big time on others foolishness and panic. Kinda sad but true. Cash is gold in crashes.
That’s where you can grab some huge returns… Typically make in a few months what takes year to make. Awesome.

#113 Dirty Dan on 08.02.20 at 10:02 pm

#33 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.02.20 at 2:22 pm
#11 Keen Reader on 08.02.20 at 12:48 pm sez:

Me: Do I need a second test, to “really” clear it up this time?
Nurse: no, you have no symptoms and tested negative, so you’re not at risk.
Me: WTF

Can’t wait for TurnerNation to explain how she’s a cog in the machine, not merely a snowflake!”
———————————————————-
Does no one else find this alarming?

///

It’s always amusing seeing someone get red pilled, even if it is late in the game.

Go back and review Bill’s post regarding Faucci. This spectacle is 0.2% virus and 99.8% political manipulation.

It’s hard to take the actual, but small number, of deaths seriously when Faucci is out ‘throwing’ opening pitches while wearing a #19 jersey. The whole thing is an inside joke to the poli…. sorry, someone is knocking at my doo

#114 Sail Away on 08.02.20 at 10:13 pm

#99 fishman on 08.02.20 at 8:57 pm

“liquidity sloshing over the gunnels”. The Garth is getting “maritimerized”. One time in the foolishness of youth we kept loading herring till we ran out of hold. Then calked the bottom of the dutch door with towels to keep the water out. I had to bring the boat up the Fraser almost to New West to pump out. Dare not slow down once I hit the fresh water.

Already at near zero buoyancy in salt water.

—————–

Yes! Statements like this prove legit experience.

A historical but little-known longterm scam was to load quarry rock in the Fraser freshwater, take the barge draft measurements, then head out to the saltwater destination with the load and submit draft measurements as payment backup without identifying them as freshwater measurements.

The 2.6% density difference was pure gravy. Millions of dollars were (and still occasionally are) scammed this way. I was quality control on a BC Ferries project a few years back where the contractor was trying to pull this. Over $50k fraudulent billing. The contractor claimed he ‘forgot’.

#115 45north on 08.02.20 at 10:27 pm

Maxed out

Density density density… city councils and bureaucrats have been preaching it for years to fill their taxation coffers and satisfy property developers.

I’m on the community association in Ottawa. Giving people a place to stay is also a consideration.

#116 45north on 08.02.20 at 10:28 pm

Jean-Jacques-Beaujacques-des-Laurentides

c’est drôle ça

#117 Sail Away on 08.02.20 at 10:30 pm

#104 Gravy Train on 08.02.20 at 9:23 pm
#81 Sail Away on 08.02.20 at 7:20 pm

“[…] Not many are worthy of this level of life. Those of you on my level, the few, congratulations.”

————–

Your comments reminded me of the poem Ozymandias by Percy Bysshe Shelley. :P

https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/46565/ozymandias

————–

Good poem, but the post was from my doppelganger and not myself.

I may be arrogant but try to deliver messages of superiority with a touch more subtlety.

#118 Bill on 08.02.20 at 10:41 pm

Good for review we have an IDIOT and a liar at the helm. Worth another laugh. Sad this country could be great.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nC9Oq_PirTQ

#98 Ronaldo on 08.02.20 at 8:44 pm
Your DEAD wrong or I wouldn’t be retired at 50 and my wife has squat cause shes a spender and clueless on invests. Maybe you should study human psychology. Thats what drives everything. Cashes you buy spikes and geed you sell…
When people lineup to buy buy for FOMO run like hell.
Me I wouldn’t buy any RE now (unless a distressed sale) But I’m on the BC water front and there would be minimal carnage in a correction. Stock markets too hot and the PM complex too but not selling those.

My prayer would be answered if NWT BC ALT SKAT MAN would separate. We have it all. Been to TO it stinks freezes lakes super polluted….GROSS MAN
Fishing hunting LOVING every day… oh and drinking…

#119 Harley Pinto on 08.02.20 at 10:50 pm

You forgot to mention the Eviction Tsunami that’s due just about now. And there’s that nasty Deferral Cliff.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/bonokoski-beware-the-virus-hurricane-of-flying-luggage-and-evicted-tenants

#120 SoggyShorts on 08.02.20 at 11:01 pm

#27 Ace Goodheart on 08.02.20 at 1:57 pm

Moral of the story? Human beings descended from monkeys. Monkeys live in trees. Our bodies are not designed for long distance running.

*************************
Do people not fact-check themselves before posting?

“Humans are the best long distance runners in the animal kingdom … One study found on a hot day a human could even outrun a horse over a 26.2 marathon.”

#121 Ace Goodheart on 08.02.20 at 11:23 pm

#90 MF:

I think the problem is the scale.

We went from zero to a billion very quickly.

From a world that did not interact between societies, to a world where a virus can spread, by air craft, to every corner of the planet, in a matter of months.

The justification for spreading this virus around the planet, was racism and virtue signaling.

We had to keep air travel open and free, and we had to let the virus in. Otherwise we would be regarded as racists.

For closing borders to a deadly virus.

Now borders are all closed anyway.

And the virus is slowly burning itself out in Canada.

What will cause the second wave?

When the Libs lose power, the cons step in and open the borders back up again.

That process is happening right now.

When that happens good luck to all of us. We will need all the luck we can get. It is busily mutating into something far worse south of the border.

#122 AisA on 08.02.20 at 11:24 pm

#61 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.02.20 at 5:13 pm

So it is written, so let it be done!

#123 AisA on 08.02.20 at 11:36 pm

Are there people out there nutz enough to take an experimental vaccine for an infection kills less than car accidents, that doesn’t have a test that is more than 50% accurate yet to be invented? Y’all are fruitloops coo-coo-cachu bloody bonkers.

#124 Where's My Money Going Gweedeau? To We Private Properties!!! on 08.02.20 at 11:38 pm

Anyone tried to cash out their Crappy Tire (Canadian Tire) cash lately? Well they won’t take it, but they will let you give them cash for your purchase, and not give you any CT cash back because well, covid!!!!
So now thy are ripping you off 2x. And that’s with WE taxpayers paying 75% of their rent…..
Eff-uck them!

#125 Paul S on 08.03.20 at 12:06 am

#81.”Sometimes I like to enjoy a glass of organic water while relaxing in my Tesla as autopilot gently guides me towards my destination.

It’s a feeling I wish I could share with all you peons. You have to earn it so I can’t give it to you. Not many are worthy of this level of life. Those of you on my level, the few, congratulations.”

Garth, I assume these types of posts remain for entertainment purposes? Regardless, I learned at a young age that the truly wealthy in life never have the need or desire to show it to others.

#126 Canuck on 08.03.20 at 12:53 am

I am a fan of fixed mortgages during this time, but people often tell me variable is the way to go because you can always lock into a fixed during a variable.

Is true?

Yes, usually. But for 2 basis points why on earth would you risk missing that moment? False logic. – Garth
_____________________________________________

Because you and others in the industry and media say that rates aren’t expected to rise for 3 years. When that happens, I can lock in for 5 years. A .25% increase doesn’t beat the prime -.30 rate I’m getting now. I’m happy to have more of my payment go to principal for the next 3 years.
I’m okay with that logic.

#127 Nonplused on 08.03.20 at 2:01 am

#90 MF on 08.02.20 at 8:13 pm
7 Ace Goodheart on 08.02.20 at 1:57
75 Nonplused on 08.02.20 at 6:44 pm

Nonplused,

You are correct, bodies break down in time. Reproductive capacity wains. But aging and ailments is very much a function of both lifestyle and genetics. Throw luck in there too. Not just genetics.

———————–

“The bulb that burns twice as bright burns half as long.” Well I think that made more sense when we all knew what an incandescent bulb was but I think you can still get it.

It’s funny watching old sci-fi movies. That phrase was used by a replicant in Blade Runner what would have been some 50 years after LEDs hit the market. Nobody then or now knows what it means. Or if you dare watch the original “Total Recall”. Brain implants and CRT TV’s. Robocop is good for that too. They envisioned a future that did not include flat screen LEDs. Well guess what? That is how we all envision the future. Our foresight is pretty much limited to our hindsight.

#128 Janice McFeel on 08.03.20 at 4:32 am

With money this cheap and a Forever CERB everything is going boom. Boat sales go crazy

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-boat-dealers-report-record-breaking-sales-amid-covid-19-restrictions-1.5593838

#129 Under the radar on 08.03.20 at 6:12 am

My escape from the City was in the planning stages for about three years before I found what I was looking for. My list included ,
Significant piece of land – bought 50 acres
Plentiful water – pristine from large aquifer
Part of the land be used for farming or Managed forest – property taxes are 25-31 percent of residential assessment on acreage.
Must have great views with portions of forest and trails
Main house and outbuildings
Pond or pool
Proximity to hospital and towns
agricultural base with restrictions against small severances .
walk score zero

#130 Phylis on 08.03.20 at 9:27 am

The troll has caught three people already, even with two posts explaining the trap. Let’s see how many more fall in.

#131 Dharma Bum on 08.03.20 at 9:41 am

#24 John

What if you desperately need a house but can’t afford it?
——————————————————————–

Voila!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG4kJrhjzaY

Where there’s a will, there’s a way!

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 10:05 am

@#112 Sail Away
” I was quality control on a BC Ferries project a few years back where the contractor was trying to pull this.”

+++++

Worked for SNC Lavalin did we?

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 10:34 am

@#112 Harley Pinto
“You forgot to mention the Eviction Tsunami that’s due just about now.”

+++

After talking to one neighbor in the underground parking lot.
No work.
CERB.
Hasnt paid rent since Apr.1st.
Owes landlord thousands of dollars.
Has no intention of repaying.

It wont be a Tsunami of evictions.
It’ll be a Hurricane of midnight moves…

And with the next wave of Covid coming down the pipe…
CERB drawing to a close….
Who will the landlords rent to?

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 10:39 am

@#128 Janice McFeel
“With money this cheap and a Forever CERB everything is going boom. Boat sales go crazy…”
++++

I’d say the majority of those boat “sales” were financed and there will be a boom in Boat “repo’s” in the Spring of 2021

#135 Stone on 08.03.20 at 10:59 am

#125 Paul S on 08.03.20 at 12:06 am
#81.”Sometimes I like to enjoy a glass of organic water while relaxing in my Tesla as autopilot gently guides me towards my destination.

It’s a feeling I wish I could share with all you peons. You have to earn it so I can’t give it to you. Not many are worthy of this level of life. Those of you on my level, the few, congratulations.”

Garth, I assume these types of posts remain for entertainment purposes? Regardless, I learned at a young age that the truly wealthy in life never have the need or desire to show it to others.

———

Is that why the wealthy like to have their names added to buildings, like universities, hospitals, sports venues, parks, park benches, trees, the list goes on, and on, and on. Look at Garth’s instagram.

Yeah, they’re not wealthy…ha ha ha ha!

I learned at a young age…that things are not binary.

#136 Sail Away on 08.03.20 at 11:06 am

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 10:05 am
@#112 Sail Away

” I was quality control on a BC Ferries project a few years back where the contractor was trying to pull this.”

—————

Worked for SNC Lavalin did we?

—————

Haha- close. SNC had the overall PM role for all BCF terminals, but my firm was contracted for design directly with BCF.

Strangely, the BCF CEO and the SNC project manager had the same last name. Even more coincidentally, they were father and son! Weird. Probably nothing untoward.

#137 Happy holiday on 08.03.20 at 11:15 am

sup today?
avacado toast…smoke (line ups wayyyy better)…maskup (u maskadaisical maskholes)… atm spits cash(trudo bro), hole foods kale…score
cheatos…basement…smoke…gaming…done.

#138 Dr V on 08.03.20 at 12:01 pm

129 under the radar – if you are in BC properties like this can come with so many restrictions it boggles the mind. ALR, managed forest, local government, insurance, wildfire covenants….Hope you did your research. good luck!

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 12:51 pm

@#136 Sail Away.
“Strangely, the BCF CEO and the SNC project manager had the same last name. Even more coincidentally, they were father and son! Weird. Probably nothing untoward.”

++++

“and I have swampland in Florida for sale……”

I worked for SNC for one year after they purchased a company I worked for..
Dreadful experience.
Bureaucratic, mindless buffoons that had reached their levels of incompetency and were too arrogant to admit it…

A few years after I,( and many other long term employees) left…..they lost the contract we had held for over 20 years with an excellent reputation.
The SNC management staff were send to other projects that they screwed up on….on to another govt project…..on and on and on.

That was just before all the corruption allegations and lawsuits started.

I found most of the key people at SNC seemed to be former govt employees that had bridged over to SNC after they retired from govt agencies that SNC managed ( no conflict there).

It makes one wonder if SNC bureaucrats can actually do a better job on govt contracts…….
How bad were govt bureaucrats at the job?
I’m wondering when the SNC “brand” will be so toxic they will be forced to change their name.

#140 Don Guillermo on 08.03.20 at 1:13 pm

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.20 at 12:51 pm
@#136 Sail Away.
“Strangely, the BCF CEO and the SNC project manager had the same last name. Even more coincidentally, they were father and son! Weird. Probably nothing untoward.”

++++

“and I have swampland in Florida for sale……”

I worked for SNC for one year after they purchased a company I worked for..
Dreadful experience.
Bureaucratic, mindless buffoons that had reached their levels of incompetency and were too arrogant to admit it…

A few years after I,( and many other long term employees) left…..they lost the contract we had held for over 20 years with an excellent reputation.
The SNC management staff were send to other projects that they screwed up on….on to another govt project…..on and on and on.

That was just before all the corruption allegations and lawsuits started.

I found most of the key people at SNC seemed to be former govt employees that had bridged over to SNC after they retired from govt agencies that SNC managed ( no conflict there).

It makes one wonder if SNC bureaucrats can actually do a better job on govt contracts…….
How bad were govt bureaucrats at the job?
I’m wondering when the SNC “brand” will be so toxic they will be forced to change their name
***************************************

Similar experience with SNC. I worked for Lavalin when SNC bought them out in the early 90’s. Changed from the best company I ever worked for to the worst almost immediately. Some years later I went on two overseas jobs with them (Trinidad and later Venezuela), this time as a contractor. They were totally bent. They would constantly try to slide employees in without proper work visas. Lots of bribery as well. Hated them but they paid us well.

#141 Montana Bob on 08.03.20 at 1:31 pm

@ Happy Housing Crash Everyone!,
Just wondering, on which parameters do you base you prediction for houses price drop of 60-75% ?
Also, realtor shysters, from 40k to 2k ?
I agree that this condition is unsustainable. But, just wondered if you can share some more insight.
Thank you in advance.

#142 Buck Turgeson on 08.03.20 at 8:12 pm

Holy Crap !! HHCE has come back , let the festivities begin !!

#143 David Pylyp on 08.03.20 at 9:37 pm

The demand is strong; More people arrive to Toronto. The bank of Mom and Dad consolidates the debt.

1990 to 1995 saw the market slide at 1% to 2% per month. Every Listing was death by ($ thousand) reductions.

Everyone I speak to this year feels a correction is coming and think it will FLIP like a light switch, like it did in 2008 (economic lockout) but those reason were different.

I think with the employment outlook and a lack of CERB / Mortgage deferral … even those who have never experienced financial hardship may feel economic pain.

Store fronts in Toronto are papered over. Sitting in the PARKING LANE for dinner or have a beer will not bring everyone out.

Interesting Times.

Touchless 3D Virtual Tours are the NEW NORMAL for OPEN HOUSES for the masses.
We will all look like Dr Kildare with Masks Gowns and Gloves.

David Pylyp
Toronto

#144 Janice McFeel on 08.04.20 at 12:22 am

#134 Crowded, yeah, that’s obvious. Tongue in cheek, and not for the right reasons. But for how long? Who buys anything anymore? Everything just gets slapped on the ass end of a life long mortgage. Now with 10 years at 2.49 and less the thrill to own and ‘drive away without paying’ is like crack for a civil servant sitting at home with full pay, no work and a lifetime of diamond studded pensions to blow on crap with your neighbours starve. Isn’t Canada grand? Can you imagine if civil servants could borrow 25 year terms? It would be like an orgy. “Let them eat cake” they scream from the poop deck.

#145 Bob Dog on 08.04.20 at 12:52 am

Young Canadians will never see affordable housing. Your government along with its chartered banks is corrupt to the core.

If The Royal Bank of Canada, otherwise known as the user friendly handle RBC, can outsource IT systems, your personal financial info, to India, then perhaps banks should be treated as any other corporation.

Open the finance industry to American banks and German banks and others. Can you imagine a system where Canadians could only use software from Canadian tech companies?

Canadian banks have been issued a license to steel from your own disgusting government.

#146 milly on 08.04.20 at 10:29 am

Hi Garth,

I am curious why you don’t think the VGA and GTA will have a crash in the housing market. On one hand, it seems the government and banks won’t let it fail (we will probably see 0% down and 50year amort before it does) and extremely low rates, but on the other hand we have a huge debt load and likely a big recession coming, lowering rents, lower immigration which cannot keep propping up housing bidding wars, above asking prices and crazy increases. It’s hard to tell what will happen, but curious as to why you don’t think any crash (20% lower) will happen at all.