Just another day on the farm. Ninety thousand more bank workers told to stay home. Trump suggests the election (that will likely defeat him) be delayed. The American economy contracts the most in, oh, 200 years. You don’t need to pay your income taxes now until the end of September. And a ten-year mortgage costs the same as a one-year term used to.
Nope, not even close to normal. And not changing soon.
On the surface, there’s lots to scare people. And scared, they are. Surveys show a majority don’t want the Canada-US border opened. They embrace masks, even where there is no virus. They won’t fly. Most are avoiding restaurants and jumping off the sidewalk when another human approaches. Small businesses are dying on the vine (a new survey shows one in seven will go bust soon – that’s 160,000 enterprises in Canada.)
Of course, the gloom is overdone. That’s what financial markets have been saying for a while now, and investors with decent portfolios have skated through this whole Covid mess. In fact the virus-induced plop back in March now looks (in hindsight) like a generational opportunity. Since then the S&P 500 has gained almost 50%, the Nasdaq has exploded higher and even laggard Bay Street is ahead more than 40%. Year/year the US markets has gained 9%, which would be a crackerjack annual return even without the worst global pandemic/crisis/mess/crapstorm in modern history.
And look at oil. Forty bucks now, compared with negative thirty-seven in April. WCS (the Alberta stuff) is worth thirty, and three months ago you couldn’t give it away. For people who don’t panic easily, with the serene confidence that pandemics are temporary and most folks are flaky, this has been a good year. Plus you got to stay home and play with the dog for the last four months. She’s happy, too.
Through this mess, the balanced and diversified portfolio approach has worked again. When stocks plunged by 30%, the portfolio declined by less than half that amount, and regained ground steadily thereafter. As stock values fell, bond prices rose. REITs kept pumping out distributions. Preferreds kept on paying a 5-6% return. As equity markets rebounded, so did the global component of the B&D accounts. So volatility was smoothed, income was maintained and the recovery time shortened. This is why people who have the twin goals of capital preservation and steady returns should invest this way. Not all stocks. Not GICs. It worked in 2020, just as in 2008-9. And Nine Eleven. The dot-com bust. Y2K. The US debt ceiling crisis. And every other storm we’ve gone through. Sixty/forty rocks. But ensure the weightings are correct.
Invest it. Set it. Fuggedaboutit.
Now, as stated, we’re not out of this weirdness yet. TD Bank just told 89,600 employees they won’t be going back to their offices until sometime next year and those who are working (in branches that remain open, for example) must be masked and pass a daily app health test. Such a thing would have been unthinkable twelve months ago. (RBC just joined in.) The American economy contracted 32.9% in the April-June period, which sure beat both 2008 and 1932 by a long shot. But it was better than anticipated (the consensus estimate had been a drop of 35%), and the next quarter’s expected to show a dramatic reversal.
President Trump is praying this is so, but already playing defense. He promised 3% annual growth, but the virus has changed the green arrows into red and thrown 25 million people out of work. No wondered that moments after the GDP stats were released Thursday he was suggesting the election in November be delayed, mail-in balloting would give a fraudulent result and that America needs to wait until physical voting is safe. In a year, maybe? (But only Congress can change an election date, thus it ain’t happening.)
So things you can count on include economic, market and political upheaval. Structural unemployment, more scared people leaping out of your way, especially if you have a naked nose, and more opportunity.
Like cheap money. So long as Covid hangs around, central banks will keep interest rates in the ditch. The Fed said as much this week, and the Bank of Canada’s already hinted the next rate move up might not be for three years. Wow.
So here are two thoughts. First, lock in this rate foolishness since it’s unlikely mortgages this low will come again in your lifetime. Do not choose variable, and think long. Five-year money is available for 2% or a little less from the major banks (if you’re very nice to [email protected] and compliment her mask choice), which is basically free. All this government spending will deliver more inflation in the future. Borrow at this level and you will look like a genius in 2025. Even moreso, in 2030.
Ten-year loans are now down to the 2.5% range, posing an historic opportunity to stabilize your loan costs for an entire decade. It’s a certainty rates then will be substantially higher, Covid will be a memory and you will be a lot older. Just make sure you don’t try to get out of a 10-year during the first half of its life, since the prepayment penalty will be gross.
By the way, if you borrow cheap money for investment purposes, the interest is all tax-deductible. Plus no CRA payment until the autumn. Thanks, bug.
176 comments ↓
I am up for mortgage renewal in September 2021. Trying to figure out what would be best.
My current mortgage is 2.49%, so I don’t think refinancing now before Sep 2021 makes sense … or does it, Garth?
Prior post Garth was awesome too.
Yup I’ve done pretty much what you said for years. We are sitting like kings. The Govs are in a heap and so are most of the peeps and theirs no way out. We setup for the worst and we are doing better cause of covid. Got essential service commercial renters ect. ZERO debt…I tried to warn all I could but they think you are chicken little. Now i smell barbecue and it ain’t me.
Lesson learned this Pandemic, reverse stock splits suck. Another reason to stay out of individual company stocks :)
“must be masked and pass a daily app health test. ”
This is it folks. The New System. A.I. is running the show. All compassion is removed; as have the rights of an individual. The globalists got us in a double bind: You are no longer allowed to get sick; BUT you have no method of proving your health.
Only the A.I. app can give you the go ahead.
Bet that info will be shared with travel authorities soon – airlines (a new No fly list), and borders.
This is what it’s all about: controlling our travel, feeding and breeding. We are like animals in a pen on a tax farm. Nothing more.
How long until new 5G enabled sensors dot your streets. Toronto Star newspaper already wrote about this.
Anyone leaving home with a slight temp. will appear to the heat reading cameras on the street. Your phone will alert you, as will the authorities. Why they dug up our streets for 5g cabling as soon as the lockdown took place. I saw it.
Do you have any recommendations or ballpark figures how much one should be investing into the specific types of bond markets?
Nope, not even close to normal. And not changing soon.
…………………………………………………………….
Your correct about the bank rates and mortgages which will be cheap for the couple of years. Lock in your renewal now long term cause it will go up. Most likley so will homes, Condos are going to suffer though. They will all be turned into rentals. So glad oil has come back as the west doesn’t need to suffer any more of the crap dished out by T2 towards them. Just remember Wheaties go out and vote next time and get rid of The Eastern Menace T2.
Are you ready to rumble!!! Committee meeting of the year happening at 3 o clock E.S.T.
Be wise with drinking game rules. Like no, er ummmm, or point of order, you will be hospitalized.
I periodically consider a cash-out mortgage to take advantage of low rates, but my innate laziness always wins. And we don’t need it, so why bother with more logistics for the sole purpose of making money… there is such a thing as ‘enough’.
Thanks for the post Garth.
I think the house-horniness in the household has cooled having watched numerous homes go for 5%-10% over asking. We’ll see what fall brings. Sounds like the low mortgage rates will be around for a bit unless banks start to up rates against potential loan risk.
And since June, it’s been doubly good. Stocks and bonds rising (can’t last though).
That the central banks don’t see needing to raise interest rates in the next three years says everything about the rate of inflation. Or shall we say disinflation. All you out there comparing Canada to Argentina need to tighten the screws in the ol’ flux capacitor.
Almost the long weekend y’all. Have a good one.
So, you shut down the economy for several months, watch the GDP sink like a stone, send money you don’t have to people who have no jobs and the stock market just cruise forward to new highs.
People have called COVID a “black swan” event; but the real black swan is the seeming suspension of the economic laws of physics. Who would have guessed that an unlimited supply of liquidity could keep all the balls in the air.
I suspect I am not the only person who thinks this may be too good to be true.
It’s been about 2 months since restaurants opened in BC.
Slowly first, but now most of them are open.
We have been dining out regularly in our favorite restaurants (mostly Japanese, Chinese).
Gotta say, love the extra space.
Many restaurants have now installed barriers between tables, which cuts down on the chatter and clutter.
So, All good in the Best Place on Earth.
Not so sure about the good ole USA.
This mess will take a little longer than a few quarters to clean up, no matter what the Prez says.
I’d hedge my bets.
And, the NHL is back. About 4 games a day.
Gotta love it. Cherry would say.
Have to say I just shook my head at Trump’s ‘suggestion’. Not surprised though. If he doesn’t win in November, I’ve no doubt he’ll claim the election results are false. Getting him to vacate the WH premises is going to be one unpleasant task.
Wearing a mask, especially a cloth mask, for this virus is like hiding under a desk during a nuclear bomb attack. But I guess it’s better than nothing.
I locked into a 5 year fixed last October at 2.8%. If only we all had a crystal ball…
“By the way, if you borrow cheap money for investment purposes, the interest is all tax-deductible. Plus no CRA payment until the autumn. Thanks, bug.”
Please clarify as this is a tad ambiguous.
Do you mean to say that Interest when borrowing to invest (in a balanced portfolio) is tax deductible?
Or do you mean that borrowing to “invest” in a home is tax deductible?
Or do you mean something else?
Context is a little confusing.
I wish I could eat money.
What is the max percentage of one’s portfolio that you recommend be “margined” at these historically low rates?
Thanks!
Real estate continues to baffle me. Looking at a starter cottage 3+ hours from Toronto. $430k for a shack in a swamp. 10 acres of undevelopable land (Greenbelt) with a 1970s vintage house 60km from Toronto for $2mill…I guess everybody’s rich except me. Is the average family wage in the GTA north of $300k these days?
Keep up the good work Garth. You’re a voice of sanity in a world gone mad.
There is no connection between real world jobs and economy to get fake Trading Systems…economy in tailspin and stocks roar.
How to invest your money….do the opposite of common sense
re: #46 OK, Doomer on 07.29.20 at 4:55 pm
…
…
Nobody forced people to buy houses they could not actually afford. – Garth
Au contraire, GT! :
The mythical “Mother in Law” (MIL) kept harassing her daughter and SIL to buy before it was too late! I made hundreds of thousands already on my house, so why are you wasting time and your money throwing it away on rent going to that no-good landlord! Hurry up, buy a house and get working on those grandchildren! All the immigrants come to the big city and they need somewhere to live, so that’ll drive up house prices forever! You don’t want to be one of those losers living in a rental ! Get moving! Here’s a hundred grand to get you started!
and on and on until a house is purchased with all the extras like granite countertops…
Small businesses are dying on the vine (a new survey shows one in seven will go bust soon – that’s 160,000 enterprises in Canada.)
———
Let’s get real here. Those 160,000 “zombie” enterprises were already teetering before covid. They would have fallen over eventually one way or another. Let’s not make excuses for poor business decisions.
Hi Garth
“The American economy contracted 32.9% in the April-June period”
The 32.9% was the annualized figure. Actual contraction during those months was 9.5%.
It’s always annualized. – Garth
Garth can you answer Captain uppa? I’m in the same boat
Just ask the lender what the early payment penalty would be then calculate the savings from getting a lower rate over the next five years. Choose the best path. Rates are unlikely to move much in the next 12 months. – Garth
#13 Trojan House on 07.30.20 at 3:32 pm
Better analogy is dropping a torque wrench onto the fuel tanks of an ICBM… blows up in your face in the silo. Does nothing to the target but make them giggle.
And what about BMO bank? Their employees are bug resistant?
I agree that the media has had a general field day with the coronavirus coverage – reporting relatively small numbers of deaths with sensationalism, for example; which can in turn frighten people (never a good thing).
But generally, the pandemic *does* seem to be a rather serious worldwide event which warrants a rather serious reaction. Asking people to get on board with wearing masks (even if it doesn’t filter everything out, even if no one around you is sick, even if it’s not going to kill you if you get sick, even if you feel stupid wearing it, even if, even if….) seems to be such a ridiculously small ask in comparison to everything going on.
On the other hand, your comments to date (and especially at the beginning) seem to indicate that you do NOT believe the reaction is warranted.
I admit that I am (small c) conservative by nature, but what am I missing?
Or put another way: what could possibly be the motivation behind most governments and scientists taking this seriously? (and no — please not the Big Brother theory, we opened ourselves up the moment we all signed up for smartphones)
How much, prime minister? How much? A dollar figure.
Garth, can you help me run the numbers on this? I just want to make sure I understand your implications in the last 2 paragraphs correctly.
In this scenario lets make the following assumptions.
1. I live in AB
2. I’m making over $97000 but under $135000. This puts me at the AB 10% tax rate and the federal rate of 26% – 36% marginal total.
If I take out an RRSP loan of $50,000 over a 10 year period at 2.5% I’ll be paying $2,678.58 in interest over the lifetime of the loan.
Now you say that interest is tax deductible, so would the most prudent course of action be to deduct the tax payed (for each year – roughly $267.85, though obviously more up front and less at the end) and then deduct however much more of that $50,000 I have to each year in order to bring my income back down under $97000 and into the next lowest tax bracket? Carrying forward the remainder of the loan for the next years deductions until it runs out?
So if I was making say $105,000 I would deduct my $267.85 in interest, and then deduct an additional $7732.15 to bring me down to the next tax bracket at 97,000? Carrying forward the additional contributions of $42267.85 for next year to continue on.
Do I understand this concept correctly? I know this is what your investment firm does professionally and it’s not good business to give away your expertise for free, but hey, you do run this entirely free blog…
Loans taken for registered accounts do not provide tax-deductible interest. – Garth
TurnerNation on 07.30.20 at 2:39 pm
How long until new 5G enabled sensors dot your streets. Toronto Star newspaper already wrote about this.
Anyone leaving home with a slight temp. will appear to the heat reading cameras on the street. Your phone will alert you, as will the authorities.
Why they dug up our streets for 5g cabling as soon as the lockdown took place. I saw it.
========================
What’s with this part about digging up the streets for 5G?
I thought it is a wireless network.
How hard can it be not to put in wires?
Cheers, R
Toronto city council planning a thinly-disguised taxpayer-funded bailout of struggling short-term rental landlords.
https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1288157747469524992
For those of us old enough to remember mortgage rates over 20%, the present time is more than surreal. Ozzy Jurock is the real estate spokesman on Michael Campbell’s financial talk show on the CORUS network. Some years ago ten year money was on offer at 4.9%, and he said it was well worth considering. It’s so tough for people who remember the high rates to believe that they could ever get so very low.
Sail Away:
ASR.TO has dropped nearly 8% since your recommendation. Is now a good entry point? :-)
I hope you take this as gentle ribbing. Furthermore, I am prepared to be wrong in a month or three should it pick back up.
#4 TurnerNation on 07.30.20 at 2:39 pm
“must be masked and pass a daily app health test. ”
This is it folks. The New System. A.I. is running the show. All compassion is removed; as have the rights of an individual. The globalists got us in a double bind: You are no longer allowed to get sick; BUT you have no method of proving your health.
Only the A.I. app can give you the go ahead.
Bet that info will be shared with travel authorities soon – airlines (a new No fly list), and borders.
This is what it’s all about: controlling our travel, feeding and breeding. We are like animals in a pen on a tax farm. Nothing more.
How long until new 5G enabled sensors dot your streets. Toronto Star newspaper already wrote about this.
Anyone leaving home with a slight temp. will appear to the heat reading cameras on the street. Your phone will alert you, as will the authorities. Why they dug up our streets for 5g cabling as soon as the lockdown took place. I saw it.
…..
Hope you don’t have a smart meter dude…. Soros knows what you are up to
Re: #4 TurnerNation on 07.30.20 at 2:39 pm
From what I have seen from the 20 year olds who are behind all the computer programming and newfangled equipment, they are not all that good at making things actually work.
If the goofballs who are going to try to put together this “brave new world” of virus surveillance, had the intelligence to do it, I would be a bit worried.
From previous attempts to automate my life (from the “self driving” cars that drive into the side of semi trucks, or drive full speed up off ramps, trying to follow the lines on the road, to the “roomba” vacuum systems that get stuck in corners and wear holes in your carpets, vacuuming nothing, to computer “apps” that were supposed to help me do things, but ended up being like working with a stubborn eight year old who couldn’t think outside of their very small box) I can say that I am not all that worried about virus tracking and contract tracing and the like.
None of it will work, anyway.
I always find myself outside of the electronic “systems”, working them to my own advantage, rather than for their intended purposes.
I now have a “beep” on my car, that goes off whenever I start it, saying I have to get it “inspected”.
I took it to the dealer. There was a guy there who apparently knew how to reset this. He came out in the parking lot and played around with it.
About 1/2 hour later, he emerged from my car, looking quite overheated, sweat dripping down his face. He announced that he could not re-set the system.
Yeah, I am so worried about these kids and their electronics. They can’t even fix their own stuff.
#25 akashic record on 07.30.20 at 4:10 pm
How much, prime minister? How much? A dollar figure.
——————————–
Mr. Speaker… Canadians from coast to coast to coast have been enduring difficult times over the past several months as a result of this unprecedented situation…………………………………………………………………
knowing in full confidence that the party they elected has been there for them in their time of need thru such programs as the….
Mr. Trudeau… Your time is up.
#12 Linda on 07.30.20 at 3:24 pm
Have to say I just shook my head at Trump’s ‘suggestion’. Not surprised though. If he doesn’t win in November, I’ve no doubt he’ll claim the election results are false. Getting him to vacate the WH premises is going to be one unpleasant task.
————————————————————————————————
Getting him to vacate the WH premises is going to be one unpleasant task?
It may be unpleasant for his supporters,but if he is voted out he will leave and that will be that.
#26 akashic record on 07.30.20 at 4:10 pm
How much, prime minister? How much? A dollar figure.
_____________
It’s really too bad that Mr. Poilievre doesn’t want to lead the party.
#24 Marco on 07.30.20 at 4:02 pm
And what about BMO bank? Their employees are bug resistant?
———
BeeMO lives matter?
They are just playing with us how; seeing how much we will swallow – and another test of compliance.
Let’s see MF run out and grab full face respirator. Camp Doctor’s orders comrade!
Ja Ja.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dr-fauci-recommends-wearing-goggles-to-prevent-catching-the-coronavirus-2020-07-29?mod=home-page
Once the bug part two hits this fall all heck will break loose on the stock market floor again for a short while; buy then, for sure there will be a dip.
As for the house lustres – again, get your ducks in a row now (pre approval, rate hold etc) and buy when everyone is afraid to go out again in the fall when Mr. Covid comes back to town.
#20 Stone on 07.30.20 at 3:48 pm
We were at near zero growth late last year. The death dart was on the way. I pulled out of the markets early Feb as there was record bullish sentiment and there was info out there a crash was imminent. Many business run on the margin because we are taxed to death so peeps like T2 and BB can throw money around like drunken sailors, bribe companies for votes special privileges and line their families pockets. Their answer “I didn’t know or I’m sorry” should = jail as it would for be for us.
I don’t t think I’m even a little off base.
#20 Stone on 07.30.20 at 3:48 pm
Small businesses are dying on the vine (a new survey shows one in seven will go bust soon – that’s 160,000 enterprises in Canada.)
————
Let’s get real here. Those 160,000 “zombie” enterprises were already teetering before covid. They would have fallen over eventually one way or another. Let’s not make excuses for poor business decisions.
————
Oh, ok. All of them, eh?
So if someone’s business fails, it is perfectly acceptable to blame them for doing a bad job?
You crankshaft.
#29 Howard on 07.30.20 at 4:17 pm
Toronto city council planning a thinly-disguised taxpayer-funded bailout of struggling short-term rental landlords.
https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1288157747469524992
………………………………………
Fools must be bailed out. Or the system fails. Property taxes dont get paid and the city suffers. Banks and cmhc get hurt. Everybody up and down the chain of debt gets hurt. The chain reaction would be catastrophic. Bailout is a must to avoid economic collapse. There is no other way.
@28 Russ;
Wireless has *tons* of wired infrastructure; 5G even more so.
The higher the frequency, the more the radio waves are point to point, kind of like a flashlight, while the old 900Mhz bands of GSM were like fog – the signals flowed around things.
For carrying more data per second, you need higher frequencies.
Think about how you’d get a flashlight beam everywhere anyone’d want a 5G high datarate signal, and you’ll get an idea of the infrastructure costs.
(yeah, generalizations above for non-techies, but hopefully you’ll get the idea)
“and jumping off the sidewalk when another human approaches. ”
=====================================
LMFAO. So true. When you have fake news outlets like CNN spreading fear 24/7, this will sadly continue.
Tell me what you want but COVID-19 is turning out to be:
The Little Pandemic that Could.
Keeps pushing it’s way up the List of Pandemics at Wikipedia (sort by Death Toll estimate for ranking):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics
———————————
Pandemics come in waves. America is screwed since they can’t even control the 1st wave, snowball’s hope in Hades they can control a 2nd wave.
-33% annualized GDP drop in the US will seem stellar if a 2nd wave hits them.
Vaccine, will see. Personally, I don’t think it will be anywhere near the level of protection people will want. I mean the bloody Common Cold is a coronavirus. The vaccine for that went well?
S. Korea and Japan this week declare recession. Exports to blame.
The World isn’t buying much Garth. Stock markets propped up by people trying to get a decent return even when the fundamentals are crap.
———————————
The Bug is going to be a plague on the World economies for years to come, especially if a 2nd wave comes, worse if it manages to mutate into something more sinister…and they have.
The Common Cold (a coronavirus) faithfully keeps coming back year after year (HEADS UP FOR ALL YOU IT’S TEMPORARY people) and its vaccine…sorry, there is none.
Let that sink in.
#29 Howard that’s it. I’ve mentioned here the large new tents filling city parks by the dozens. Appeared out of nowhere.
This local vlogger spotted them at city hall:
The tents are there for a reason. To push this new agenda the socialization of properties, slow incremental march toward ending property rights; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pav7znoMkVs
Every city has signed on to the plan and is wasting no time.
As to 5G I saw the endless dig with my own eyes in dozens of places downtown right after the lock down. Rogers contractors.
Hey it’s not like it was PLANNED right? How do you marshal so many men and machines..non essential.
https://www.cablinginstall.com/cable/article/14035163/clearfield-5g-trends-impacting-fiber-deployment
Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
CMHC Ponzi Scheme Wipes Out a Generation.
CMHC holds over 250,000 Equity Negative Mortgages.
https://www.howestreet.com/2020/07/cmhc-ponzi-scheme-real-estate-equity-negative-mortgages-ross-kay/
@#11 Ponzie’s Pastry’s
“We have been dining out regularly in our favorite restaurants (mostly Japanese, Chinese).”
++++
Tired of breaded Schnitzel and strudel for dessert?
since when did the policy of ‘flattening the curve’ so the health care system wouldn’t be overwhelmed turn into ruining our lives and wrecking the economy so nobody catches covid, ever?
Interesting…
The TSX hit an all time high during the day on February 20, 2020, reaching 17,970.50.
Today the TSX closed at 16,299.29, which represents a drop of about 9.3% from Feb 20 until now.
If you look at the TSX at the start of the year (January 2, 2020) the high for the day was 17,164.60 and given today’s close, that still represents a drop of 5.04% since the start of the year.
I am not sure how that jives with the statement “..and investors with decent portfolios have skated through this whole Covid mess.”
While balanced portfolios naturally could have done better than the TSX composite, I just don’t see how anyone could be dancing in the streets due to their “balanced portfolio…buy and hold” performance.
The TSX forms but one part (and a minority one) of a balanced and diversified global portfolio. Surely you understand that. The reality is prudent investors have so far survived Covid just fine. And where did I mention dancing? – Garth
Markets are priced for vaccine success: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/covid-19-vaccine-reality-check/614566/
#4 TurnerNation on 07.30.20 at 2:39 pm
“must be masked and pass a daily app health test. ”
This is it folks. The New System. A.I. is running the show….blah, blah, blah followed by tinfoil hat crap…”
—————————————————————
Get out of your mommy’s basement and stop watching YouTube tinfoil hat crap. You are a broken record, a very sick one at that. Now put your straightjacket back on, take your meds, shut off your computer and go take a nice nap in the rubber room…
“Loans taken for registered accounts do not provide tax-deductible interest. – Garth”
=====================================
Whelp that does change the calculation a little. Thanks Garth!
When the history books are written, the right honourable Garth Turner will go down as the lone voice of reason crying out in the financial wilderness of Canada. While many Canadians barely make ends meet, the wise ones have made small fortunes (in some cases large ones but I dare not brag) following his sagacious advice. Fellow blog dogs, let us unite in nominating Sir Garth for the Order of Canada! Any blog dogs support me?
#38 TurnerNation on 07.30.20 at 4:53 pm
#43 Another Deckchair on 07.30.20 at 5:03 pm
I built cell sites radios and fibre networks for Telus 25 years. No more macros just zillions of micro cells. I hung that gig up but it was the BEST cuz BC is big and beautiful. Thousands of chopper rides good fun..Here’s some 5G info for anyone interested.
https://www.cnet.com/news/smartphones-may-be-leaking-out-more-radiation-than-we-think-phones/
>There’s another public figure who’s caught Covid and is taking Hydroxychloroquine who we can watch to see what happens. It’s U.S. Representative Louie Gohmert of Texas. He tested positive on July 29, 2020.
—
Gohmert says he will take hydroxychloroquine as COVID-19 treatment
Rebecca Klar
The Hill
Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas) said Wednesday he will take an anti-malaria drug that experts have warned doesn’t treat the coronavirus after he tested positive for the virus.
“My doctor and I are all-in,” Gohmert said about hydroxychloroquine during a Wednesday evening interview with Fox News, according to Newsweek.
“I got a text before I came on from a friend doctor who just found out he had it, and he started the regimen too – zinc and hydroxychloroquine. And that will start in a day or two, so thank you,” the congressman added.
Congressional aides confirmed Wednesday that Gohmert, who has largely opted against wearing a mask around the Capitol, tested positive for COVID-19….
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gohmert-says-he-will-take-hydroxychloroquine-as-covid-19-treatment/ar-BB17lL28?OCID=ansmsnnews11
The TSX forms but one part (and a minority one) of a balanced and diversified global portfolio. Surely you understand that. The reality is prudent investors have so far survived Covid just fine. And where did I mention dancing? – Garth
Global portfolio thoughts, the economies of every country has been affected by Covid, some (like the USA) more so than Canada.
As for the dancing, you indeed did not mention dancing, you did however mention the direct Canadian equivalent…. Skating.
I guess what I am trying to say is that while a balanced global portfolio is obviously a necessity, I have serious doubts that many balanced global portfolios have recovered to their pre-covid states.
I figure for most (the ones who sat tight and didn’t “gamble”) are still down around 4% to maybe 8% at this particular point in time. And (hopefully) ‘skating’ down the road to full recovery at some point.
Does this generally jive with your observations, Mr. Turner?
“Trump suggests the election (that will likely defeat him) be delayed. ”
Not really. What he did was hand the Democrats a paintbrush to paint themselves into a corner. Their knee-jerk reaction will be (or already is) that the election cannot be delayed.
This means that it will be impossible for the Democrats to push through a “Cheat By Mail” proposal.
As usual, Trump is four steps ahead of the Democrats.
Maybe he just knows what’s coming. And, of course, the election cannot be delayed without Congressional approval. It will not be forthcoming. – Garth
#38 TurnerNation on 07.30.20 at 4:53 pm
Who is “they”?
Wait,
Weren’t you the poster who just told us the “globalists” were the ones who had closed borders, stopped immigration, and reduced the flow of goods around the world?
Does that sound like globalism to you?
Btw, didn’t fully read your mask comment. No point.
MF
#31 Faron on 07.30.20 at 4:22 pm
Sail Away:
ASR.TO has dropped nearly 8% since your recommendation. Is now a good entry point? :-)
I hope you take this as gentle ribbing. Furthermore, I am prepared to be wrong in a month or three should it pick back up.
——————–
Oh, I never recommended it be purchased now- I was noting that it had done very well up until now and was preparing to sell 50% of my position.
I personally spend a lot of time examining stocks that have done well and try to extrapolate commonalities to evaluate other companies… then I put them on the watchlist for a year or more before taking a position…
DELETED
By the way, if you borrow cheap money for investment purposes, the interest is all tax-deductible. Plus no CRA payment until the autumn. Thanks, bug.
——-
People are certainly taking advantage of the above , buying ever more real estate property ,for investment purposes ,at ever increasing prices ,in the GTA and surrounding areas .
Real estate in Toronto truly is an invincible asset class with zero vulnerabilities . No kryptonite for real estate .
There is no evidence of this. In fact the investment assets of choice until now – condos – seem to be in trouble. But nice pumping. – Garth
#59 Orange Man….Orange on 07.30.20 at 5:55 pm
“Trump suggests the election (that will likely defeat him) be delayed. ”
Not really. What he did was hand the Democrats a paintbrush to paint themselves into a corner. Their knee-jerk reaction will be (or already is) that the election cannot be delayed.
This means that it will be impossible for the Democrats to push through a “Cheat By Mail” proposal.
As usual, Trump is four steps ahead of the Democrats.
Maybe he just knows what’s coming. And, of course, the election cannot be delayed without Congressional approval. It will not be forthcoming. – Garth
++++++++++++++++++++
Exactly. You’re catching on. He’s giving away something valueless to force his opposition into an untenable position and kill the need for their best chance to cheat. If it’s safe enough to hold an election it’s impossible to turn around and argue that it’s too dangerous to vote in person.
#36 Lambchop on 07.30.20 at 4:40 pm
It’s really too bad that Mr. Poilievre doesn’t want to lead the party.
—
Definitely. He is sharp, dealt well with the smug PM and his similarly smug chief of staff.
These virtual hearings are not very useful, since handlers can communicate with the witnesses real time over their screens, while they are testifying. Occasionally you can see the witnesses to gaze.
#41 Sail Away on 07.30.20 at 4:59 pm
#20 Stone on 07.30.20 at 3:48 pm
Small businesses are dying on the vine (a new survey shows one in seven will go bust soon – that’s 160,000 enterprises in Canada.)
————
Let’s get real here. Those 160,000 “zombie” enterprises were already teetering before covid. They would have fallen over eventually one way or another. Let’s not make excuses for poor business decisions.
————
Oh, ok. All of them, eh?
So if someone’s business fails, it is perfectly acceptable to blame them for doing a bad job?
You crankshaft.
———
You’re the boss. You make the decisions. You wear the big boy pants. So yeah. It’s your fault as the owner. As you reap the benefits, you also reap The downfall.
There are many other companies out there doing just fine. They did good and are not at risk. Those 160,000 did not.
Are you becoming a moisty moister all of a sudden? You can cry if you want to. Nobody cares.
Garth,
I am a DIY investor in ETFs; what is the best way to calculate yearly ROR? Is there a good free website or app? I use RBC direct invest but they don’t give me yearly return rates.
Thanks in adavance
“Trump suggests the election (that will likely defeat him) be delayed.” — Garth
Why even bother to have an election (that President Trump would win anyway)?
If other countries like Russia and China can have leaders for life, why cannot the USA have President Donald J. Trump for life?
Why not just leave President Trump alone to get the job done, instead of letting all sorts of political scoundrels and criminal types get in the way of all progress?
#58 Ramshackle on 07.30.20 at 5:53 pm
…what I am trying to say is that while a balanced global portfolio is obviously a necessity, I have serious doubts that many balanced global portfolios have recovered to their pre-covid states.
I figure for most (the ones who sat tight and didn’t “gamble”) are still down around 4% to maybe 8% at this particular point in time. And (hopefully) ‘skating’ down the road to full recovery at some point.
Does this generally jive with your observations, Mr. Turner?
—————
Give it a break, Ram. You don’t seem to understand the investment interest deduction per post #14 and are hammering away about ridiculously small considerations here.
Balanced 60/40 portfolios have recovered. Plus or minus 4% is a regular fluctuation, not a point to be debated.
Maybe you just want to argue?
This is an interesting analysis of the CNN/Trump conflict over COVID treatment. About 12 minutes long, but I watched it a 2X speed because I’m impatient.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCRGYtMgn4c
#28 Russ
How hard can it be not to put in wires!
In you neighborhood how many cell towers are there? With 4G transmission signals reach for miles but with 5G data is transferred at short distances so the telecom’s will need a “dense” concentration of small transmitter’s attached to power poles, street lamps, rooftops, behind walls etc. The capability for connections in a sq. mile increases from the present 10,000 to 3,000,000. With 6G a staggering 10,000,000. For example the CCP’s target today, a minimum of two devices for every one subject in that country or nearly 3B devices.
Coverage will be so concentrated that by stepping out your front door to get a cab all you will have to say is “Uber”.
#20 Stone on 07.30.20 at 3:48 pm
Small businesses are dying on the vine (a new survey shows one in seven will go bust soon – that’s 160,000 enterprises in Canada.)
———
Let’s get real here. Those 160,000 “zombie” enterprises were already teetering before covid. They would have fallen over eventually one way or another.
///////////////
Same could be said of the thousands who died of Covid in LTC homes
#59 Orange Man….Orange on 07.30.20 at 5:55 pm
This means that it will be impossible for the Democrats to push through a “Cheat By Mail” proposal
—————————————————————
What is the “Cheat By Mail ” proposal exactly? Any source to the said “plan”?
#58 Ramshackle on 07.30.20 at 5:53 pm
Don’t forget that bonds have killed it (for bonds) this year. Double digit percent growth. XBAL (I use this as a proxy for a non-tuned B+D portfolio. Tuned would be swapping in preferreds and REITs) broke even YTD in June and is now approaching +2% YTD NAV and yields a couple percent more annually. Call it +3%. It’s actually got a beat on the TSX since ’07 in terms of NAV. I think total return of TSX may edge it out. Obviously, S&P crushes XBAL since ’07.
#54 In Garth, Not God We Trust on 07.30.20 at 5:41 pm
Fellow blog dogs, let us unite in nominating Sir Garth for the Order of Canada! Any blog dogs support me?
————–
If you want to do it, just go ahead. It’s not hard and has to be done by a single nominator.
Just make sure to fill the form correctly or the Governor General will give you hell.
Hi Garth, this talk of cheap mortgages reminded me to ask you to elaborate on the rent or buy criteria that you had mentioned in a historic posting
RE: “They embrace masks, even where there is no virus.”
So tell me. Where is there NO virus in Canada?
You can try here. – Garth
COVID19 is 4EVA. So is suppression to zero a realistic goal? Is staying home a plan? Is waiting for a vaccine reasonable? We need to think long term and how to make the economy workable when the borders open up fully again.
Ramshackle on 07.30.20 at 5:53 pm
The TSX forms but one part (and a minority one) of a balanced and diversified global portfolio. Surely you understand that. The reality is prudent investors have so far survived Covid just fine. And where did I mention dancing? – Garth
Global portfolio thoughts, the economies of every country has been affected by Covid, some (like the USA) more so than Canada.
As for the dancing, you indeed did not mention dancing, you did however mention the direct Canadian equivalent…. Skating.
I guess what I am trying to say is that while a balanced global portfolio is obviously a necessity, I have serious doubts that many balanced global portfolios have recovered to their pre-covid states.
I figure for most (the ones who sat tight and didn’t “gamble”) are still down around 4% to maybe 8% at this particular point in time. And (hopefully) ‘skating’ down the road to full recovery at some point.
Does this generally jive with your observations, Mr. Turner?
….
Well I’m now up for the year…. so i guess it was balanced enough… crazy stuff!
The point many miss is that the 15%+ gains of 2019 were not erased by Covid. The B&D portfolio did exactly what it was intended to. Protect during declines. Party during growth. Like me. – Garth
whiplash on 07.30.20 at 6:44 pm
#28 Russ
How hard can it be not to put in wires!
In you neighborhood how many cell towers are there? With 4G transmission signals reach for miles but with ..===================
Hey Whip & others,
Thanks for taking me seriously but I should have put TIC or VBG or something like that in the message.
I wasn’t serious but I still believe that when talking about wireless net works and sarcastically throwing in
“…. how hard can it be not to run wires?” is pretty funny but it does present better live, it seems.
Sigh
#12 Linda on 07.30.20 at 3:24 pm
Have to say I just shook my head at Trump’s ‘suggestion’. Not surprised though. If he doesn’t win in November, I’ve no doubt he’ll claim the election results are false. Getting him to vacate the WH premises is going to be one unpleasant task.
——————
Oh stop. In the case of a contested election it will be decided by the courts, not Trump. Once the results are in he won’t have any choice but to comply because if he loses come inauguration day he will no longer be the president. It would take a military coup to resist the election results but I don’t think that is going to happen. Things are bad in the US right now but they aren’t that bad. The “he won’t leave” hysteria is just part of TDS. He won’t have a choice. Assuming he loses.
#20 Stone on 07.30.20 at 3:48 pm
Small businesses are dying on the vine (a new survey shows one in seven will go bust soon – that’s 160,000 enterprises in Canada.)
———
Let’s get real here. Those 160,000 “zombie” enterprises were already teetering before covid. They would have fallen over eventually one way or another. Let’s not make excuses for poor business decisions.
*******************************************
Garth keeps mentioning financially illiterate Canadians. The author of the above response would be Exhibit A.
RE: RE: “They embrace masks, even where there is no virus.”
So tell me. Where is there NO virus in Canada?
You can try here. – Garth
https://novascotia.ca/coronavirus/data/
========================================
If you deselect Cumulative confirmed cases” but leave “New confirmed cases” selected, you’ll see that there was a new case about two weeks ago on July 15. And those listed are only verified cases. No guarantee that the next untested guy to sneeze on you in the grocery store is COVID free. Hence the masks.
But it is impressive that Nova Scotia has kept their case load so low. Didn’t know that.
Zero active cases. Zero means, like, none. – Garth
By the way, if you borrow cheap money for investment purposes, the interest is all tax-deductible.
——
Careful on the above statement. That is only true in a non-registered account where you can earn dividends. You can’t buy Tesla in any account, or any investment at all in a TFSA or RRSP with these funds
Of course not. Interest deductibility on loans for registered accounts has been disallowed for decades. – Garth
#64 Orange Man….Orange on 07.30.20 at 6:13 pm
Exactly. You’re catching on. He’s giving away something valueless to force his opposition into an untenable position and kill the need for their best chance to cheat. If it’s safe enough to hold an election it’s impossible to turn around and argue that it’s too dangerous to vote in person.
———————–
Um, it does not seem that Trump’s opponents have had any trouble holding two or more contradictory opinions before….
CERB recipients lined up around the block at the local LCBO today….bang on par**tay – JT’s got our backs **no more work**no more rent**no more mortgage**no more bills**more booze more broads more cerb more fun oh boy.
Mrs Flop and I were supposed to go away for Spring Break.
Some unknown virus come along that I’ve never heard of and we got canceled.
The hotel coughed up a refund straight away.
Air Canada wanted to give us the standard 2 year voucher, but we decided to do a travel insurance claim to be made whole with AIG.
Finally got the cheque today, didn’t lose a penny.
Best trip I never had…
M46BC
“Visualized: The Top 25 Business Insurance Firms in the U.S.
Having the right insurance is a critical part of small business financial planning. It can provide much needed funds in case of a covered interruption to business. But what are the biggest brokerages selling policies today
*Marsh & McLennan is the top brokerage by revenue by a long shot. With $7.5B in annual revenue, Marsh & McLennan is the only brokerage to top $5B.
*Three other companies generate more than $3B in annual revenue, including Aon ($4.7B), Willis Towers Watson ($4B) and Arthur J. Gallagher ($3.6B).
*The business insurance brokerage industry is dominated by several smaller players. 12 out of the top 25 companies make less than $1B in annual revenue.
*There is substantial volatility in revenues year-over-year, with several companies entering and leaving the top 25 from one year to the next.”
Top 10 Largest Business Insurance Brokerages by Revenue.
Company Brokerage Revenue ($)
1. Marsh & McLennan Cos. Inc. $7.5B
2. Aon PLC $4.7B
3. Willis Towers Watson PLC $4B
4. Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. $3.6B
5. BB&T Insurance Holdings Inc. $2B
6. Brown & Brown Inc. $2B
7. Hub International Ltd. $1.7B
8. USI Insurance Services LLC $1.7B
9. Alliant Insurance Services Inc. $1.3B
10. Acrisure LLC
Re:
#22 Useless on 07.30.20 at 3:51 pm
Garth can you answer Captain uppa? I’m in the same boat
Just ask the lender what the early payment penalty would be then calculate the savings from getting a lower rate over the next five years. Choose the best path. Rates are unlikely to move much in the next 12 months. – Garth
One other option might be something like a blend of existing rate with current market rates along with an extension of your term. You wouldn’t be ‘breaking out” of your contract in that way, so would avoid a penalty. Depends on whether your Bank/credit union offers that feature.
You don’t get rock bottom rate, but it does allow you to take advantage of current lows.
#61 Sail Away on 07.30.20 at 6:04 pm
Ha ha. Nice try.
You really should run for office; you are about as slippery as Garth.
Hope you sold that 50%.
#72 Penny Henny on 07.30.20 at 6:44 pm
#20 Stone on 07.30.20 at 3:48 pm
Small businesses are dying on the vine (a new survey shows one in seven will go bust soon – that’s 160,000 enterprises in Canada.)
———
Let’s get real here. Those 160,000 “zombie” enterprises were already teetering before covid. They would have fallen over eventually one way or another.
///////////////
Same could be said of the thousands who died of Covid in LTC homes.
———
Are you seriously telling me that the infirm in those LTCs are to be blamed for their own deaths? Those same infirm and/or their family members, who placed their trust in those LTCs to exercise a fiduciary responsibility which they failed to do because of incompetent management?
If I understood your point properly, that’s gross.
Garth, it is a joke that you consider Canada and the western world capitalist anymore. If they can just lie and cheat money out of thin air, central banks and banks in general, why would i want to depend on a dividend from a bank.
Banks are not working as banks anymore. They are lending money to people that were in bad financial shape for decades now.
Unfortunately investment money can’t be borrowed at 2.5%, it’s more like 5%?. Actual tax right off is what 20%or so depending on income??.
A HELOC can be taken at prime or prime plus a half. Interest is 100% deductible at your marginal rate. – Garth
#45 Dolce Vita on 07.30.20 at 5:04 pm
The Common Cold (a coronavirus) faithfully keeps coming back year after year (HEADS UP FOR ALL YOU IT’S TEMPORARY people) and its vaccine…sorry, there is none.
Let that sink in.
—-
There are 4 coronaviruses that are considered “common cold”, but the most “common” common cold is caused by the rhinovirus…
#82 GRG on 07.30.20 at 7:23 pm
#20 Stone on 07.30.20 at 3:48 pm
Small businesses are dying on the vine (a new survey shows one in seven will go bust soon – that’s 160,000 enterprises in Canada.)
———
Let’s get real here. Those 160,000 “zombie” enterprises were already teetering before covid. They would have fallen over eventually one way or another. Let’s not make excuses for poor business decisions.
*******************************************
Garth keeps mentioning financially illiterate Canadians. The author of the above response would be Exhibit A.
———
Far from illiterate. I’m very well versed in reading financial statements and financing businesses. I don’t invest in losers. Also, my B&D ETF portfolio is up 3% YTD. 6 figure income, 7 figure investment portfolio, $0 debt. I’m just calling a spade a spade.
Don’t be bitter about your poor choices and outcomes. You only have yourself to look at for that.
Re: vaccine hopefuls:
There has never been a successful vaccine for a corona virus.
There are seven corona viruses that infect humans.
Five cause the common cold. Three are deadly.
The one that causes COVID is one of the three deadly ones.
They are all RNA viruses. That means they mutate constantly.
Very hard to vaccinate against.
#38 Turner Nation
This should do the job.
https://www.israel21c.org/new-ventilator-mask-protects-entire-face-from-coronavirus/
@#52 Turner Nation’s Psychiatrist
“Now put your straightjacket back on, take your meds, shut off your computer and go take a nice nap in the rubber room…”
++++
I’m not going unless it has Air conditioning and Wi-Fi
#89 Faron on 07.30.20 at 7:40 pm
#61 Sail Away on 07.30.20 at 6:04 pm
Ha ha. Nice try.
You really should run for office; you are about as slippery as Garth.
Hope you sold that 50%.
—————–
I guess to be legit, I should’ve mentioned my plan to sell 50% during our initial conversation.
Oh, wait…
***********
“#175 Sail Away on 07.28.20 at 1:10 pm
ASR.TO. Purchased 2.21 in June 2014, currently 10.64. That’s… oh, I don’t know… pretty good.
I’ll sell 50% pretty soon but not until the frenzy subsides.”
************
And no, I haven’t yet sold. Plenty of upside remains. Do you take me for an emotional daytrader?
@#90 Stone.
“Those 160,000 “zombie” enterprises were already teetering before covid. They would have fallen over eventually one way or another.”
++++
Perhaps they would have failed…… since …..statisically……….most entrepreneurial endeavors fail within the first year.
But were not talking about “eventually one way or another”.
We have 160,000…(One Hundred and Sixty THOUSAND) small businesses that will probably fold in the next 12 Months……….because of the unexpected shut down of their jobs, businesses, rent…….. totally unexpected.
CERB and free rent ( while costing taxpayers HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS) were very nice……but they only delayed the inevitable.
This is going to go on and on and on……
A “crash” of small businesses …… all….within….a….12 month period.
Not Good.
Especially when you consider the majority of the Canadian economy IS small businesses.
This isnt over yet……not by a long shot.
A ladybug has less than 1/100th of 1% of the mass of an average canine, but an IQ that is 45% higher.
Some creatures are just dogawful wastes of space on this planet.
TurnerNation,
This one is for you. From one of the best albums ever made.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lt-udg9zQSE
“Surveys show a majority don’t want the Canada-US border opened.”
I’ve got that covered on two fronts. Having maintained dual citizenship since childhood, I own a pickup truck regd. in Ontario with Ontario plates i use just when crossing to Canada. I have a cottage there so the quarantine order wasn’t much of a problem staying put.
Cottage guy who hates us and GTAers doesn’t know me and i don’t know him. All other strangers just think I’m Canadian which i am, so no haters to deal with for the six week stay.
Been checking on a couple places owned by American cottagers i know here who have no way of entering the country. Two out of hundreds of places owned by American citizens unoccupied this summer. One bright spot in cottager’s stay away guys little world perhaps. The place is packed with people this summer otherwise. More than most years.
Australia has for a long time trying to be a good little boy, towing the globalization rope, waiting to get s pat on the head for a job well done my countries higher up the food chain.
While Canada has been quite on China, the convicts have been fighting back and even U.S Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo congratulated Australia the other day for taking up the fight.
Might have even suggested it was a good decision to allow Stephen Harper to sign off on allowing Mr Flop to live in exile in Canada.
Below is another fight they have picked with some of the corporate big boys, been watching this one rumble on for a while, looks like the framework has been finalized to get tech giants to pay for news content.
Could boomerang back and hit them in the back of the head…
M46BC
“Australia is on track to become the first country in the world to order Google and Facebook to pay for news content after a landmark code was unveiled this morning.
Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg revealed the ACCC’s news bargaining code in Canberra, saying it was designed to create a “level-playing field” for Australian media businesses that were forced to work with the powerful multibillion-dollar firms.
The code comes one year after the ACCC handed down the results of an 18-month investigation into digital platforms that recommended tech giants share revenue obtained “directly or indirectly” from news content on their platforms, which generate billions of dollars in advertising every year.
“It’s about a fair go for Australian news media businesses, it’s about ensuring that we have increased competition, increased consumer protection, and a sustainable media landscape,” Mr Frydenberg said.
“Nothing less than the future of the Australian media landscape is at stake with these changes.”
Just ask the lender what the early payment penalty would be then calculate the savings from getting a lower rate over the next five years. Choose the best path. Rates are unlikely to move much in the next 12 months. – Garth
——————————————-
Appreciated.
I just wonder if I do the refinance now, take more equity out of my home to put in my 60/40 portfolio to capitalize on the economic rebound.
By saying he thinks the election should be delayed Trump is calling out the Democrats bluff. The Democrats have been saying mail in voting is needed to keep this vote safe.
In truth the Democrats want mail in voting only because they think it will benefit them by making it easier for Biden’s unenthusiastic supporters to vote for him. Lack of enthusiasm does not seem to be a problem with Trump supporters.
Trump is losing it by the hour. He certainly is contradicting the advice Fauci gave yesterday that opening schools would be a huge risk given that kids 9+ can transmit covid to others like adults.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/trump-pushes-to-reopen-schools-says-closures-will-probably-cause-more-death.html
63 Abc123 on 07.30.20 at 6:13 pm
By the way, if you borrow cheap money for investment purposes, the interest is all tax-deductible. Plus no CRA payment until the autumn. Thanks, bug.
——-
People are certainly taking advantage of the above , buying ever more real estate property ,for investment purposes ,at ever increasing prices ,in the GTA and surrounding areas .
Real estate in Toronto truly is an invincible asset class with zero vulnerabilities . No kryptonite for real estate .
There is no evidence of this. In fact the investment assets of choice until now – condos – seem to be in trouble. But nice pumping. – Garth
———-
I am not pumping and I am not a realtor . I am simply stating what should be patently obvious to all at this point , including by your own admission , that prices have risen . Since immigration is a mute point , at this point in time, and in addition new home sales Condos or otherwise have been Brisk to say the least , it is fair to say that real estate has survived and Continues to thrive despite what should have been the death blow.
I stand by my Earlier comment .
I know some peeps dis TurnerNation BUT he’s sounding more on track then those that dis him
#108 Abc123 on 07.30.20 at 9:41 pm
immigration is a mute point…
————–
Is that a really quiet point?
#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.20 at 8:33 pm
@#90 Stone.
“Those 160,000 “zombie” enterprises were already teetering before covid. They would have fallen over eventually one way or another.”
++++
Perhaps they would have failed…… since …..statisically……….most entrepreneurial endeavors fail within the first year.
But were not talking about “eventually one way or another”.
We have 160,000…(One Hundred and Sixty THOUSAND) small businesses that will probably fold in the next 12 Months……….because of the unexpected shut down of their jobs, businesses, rent…….. totally unexpected.
CERB and free rent ( while costing taxpayers HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS) were very nice……but they only delayed the inevitable.
This is going to go on and on and on……
A “crash” of small businesses …… all….within….a….12 month period.
Not Good.
Especially when you consider the majority of the Canadian economy IS small businesses.
This isnt over yet……not by a long shot.
———
You are correct in regards to your comment about business failure stats and that it ain’t over yet.
I can see you think this is not good but I think it’s very good. I didn’t say it wouldn’t be painful for many. It will cleanse the weak businesses out and allow for the resources that were used inefficiently to be picked up by others who will hopefully use them more wisely which in turn will eventually allow for a stronger economy.
All that creative destruction will eventually flow up until it plumps up my ETFs and their distributions.
Hooray!
#104 Flop…
Interesting, will follow up on that, thanks for the info!
Bloomberg headlines…
‘US GDP’s Crash was expected but Rising Jobless Claims Weren’t’
‘Bank of Japan outlook crashes down to earth with more realistic forecast’
Back to reality…and then an expected second wave.
When hope crashes down to earth that’s reality. Not a good time to be heavily indebted.
@#111 Stone
“All that creative destruction will eventually flow up until it plumps up my ETFs and their distributions.
Hooray!”
++++
I’ll “see” your comment and “play”.
I manage a small business.
About 6-10 employees depending on how busy we are.
We had an excellent year in 2019.
The other owners wanted juicy dividend payments in early 2020.
I advised we pay 50% of the dividends they wanted and then wait to see what Covid and CERB brings……..
Trudeau jumped in with his “Billions of Dollars Baby” (apologies to Alice Cooper) cash give away….. I was horrified at the future tax implications…..
I have no idea what the next 12 months will bring but we have lots of cash, my inventory is building, and lucrative contracts are still moving forward….for now.
My other partners have grudgingly agreed that it was ….(and still is)….wise to wait with the remaining dividend payments.
#110 Sail Away on 07.30.20 at 9:57 pm
#108 Abc123 on 07.30.20 at 9:41 pm
immigration is a mute point…
————–
Is that a really quiet point?
—
A point emphatically made by mimes.
If you have any gift cards for these places better use them up.
Here is a list of closures in 2020:
Victoria’s Secret – 13 of the Canadian stores
Old Navy – Some of their stores in Canada closing
Banana Republic – Some of their stores in Canada closing
La Senza – 30 of their 100 stores in Canada closing
Sail – 6 of their stores (2 in ON) closing
Aldo Shoes – 40% of stores across Canada closing
Thyme Maternity – 54 stores closing
Nygard – All 169 stores closing
Moore’s Men’s Wear – Some of their stores closing
Le Chateau – All stores closing throughout 2020
Bootlegger – Some closing
Addition Elle – All 77 stores closing
Ricki’s – Some stores closing
Cleo – Some stores closing
The Gap – 130 stores closing
The Gap Kids – All stores
Children’s Place – 200 of their stores closing
Justice – All Canadian stores
Mendocino – 28 Stores across Canada closing
Bench 24 Canadian stores closing
Forever 21 – Any remaining stores
David’s Tea – 124 of 210 locations Canada-wide closing
GNC – All locations in Canada closing
People’s Jewellers – Some of their stores closing
Scholar’s Choice – 13 of 16 stores closing
Starbucks – many locations across Canada closing
Hallmark Cards – All locations closing
Bath & Body Works – 1 store, not sure where
Bed, Bath & Beyond – Any remaining stores open
Pier 1 – Any last remaining stores
Carleton Cards – All 76 stores closing
Things Engraved – All locations
I will reiterate myself. Ive been in 5 successful businesses in 38 yrs had my first biz restaurant 38 years ago. T2 is a massive crooked clown…
His ignorance scares the hell of me and if i went into politics id be like Ralf Klein. Very politically incorect but efficiant as hell.
If Trump goes watch the market get crushed Mr B wants to jack taxes to the moon. They go we go. WAKE THE HELL UP all you Trump haters. Hes far from perf but he is an aniti scocialist bless that you communists…GO FREE MARKET AND FREEDOMs.. Yes business people are far more acute than employees thats why they are more successful…
#74 Joseph R. on 07.30.20 at 6:45 pm
#59 Orange Man….Orange on 07.30.20 at 5:55 pm
This means that it will be impossible for the Democrats to push through a “Cheat By Mail” proposal
—————————————————————
What is the “Cheat By Mail ” proposal exactly? Any source to the said “plan”?
++++++++++++++++++++++
I’d tell you to Google “Cheat by Mail Voting” but the top 1000 results on Google would be articles by CNN telling you that “Cheat By Mail Voting” is the kindest, gentlest, fairest system in all the land.
#64 – don’t know where you are but here in the LowerMainland condos sitting for months…. have a look at
my realty check.
dont buy the 6 to 7 percent annual return hypothesis, its too low, if your not making or at least trying to make real money then put it under a mattress or GIC or something.
Canadian investors generally expect too little when it comes to returns, they talk about dividends etc. Americans talk about growth as an example.
It all starts with access to capital, and in Canada its much harder, then less opportunities, then higher taxes , etc.
im sorry too low,
@TurnerNation
“must be masked and pass a daily app health test. ”
How long until new 5G enabled sensors dot your streets. Toronto Star newspaper already wrote about this. Anyone leaving home with a slight temp. will appear to the heat reading cameras on the street. Your phone will alert you, as will the authorities. Why they dug up our streets for 5g cabling as soon as the lockdown took place. I saw it.
—————–
That’s heavy. It’s crazy how things are actually lining up, and seeing things that are clearly hidden in plane site. I like a quote you said a while ago that i often use now myself
The truth is no longer hidden from us, we hide from the truth
#91 Stone on 07.30.20 at 7:41 pm
#72 Penny Henny on 07.30.20 at 6:44 pm
#20 Stone on 07.30.20 at 3:48 pm
(and others, popular subject)
Small businesses are dying on the vine (a new survey shows one in seven will go bust soon – that’s 160,000 enterprises in Canada.)
——————————-
Small businesses get created and then die all the time, that is true. But usually the “birth rate” and “death rate” are about the same, so employees just move from a failed business to one that is still operating or even expanding. What is happening here is that businesses that should have had a 5, 10 or even 20 year run are all dying all at once with next to no new businesses being formed. It is a disaster.
Never had a mortgage, saving and investing has been enough to pay cash for our place. And another 1 or 2 if required, but there are far better investments. Debt-free since 2007 and intend to be for the rest of my life.
I do understand the practicalities of offering advice as to how to utilize the crazy-low rates, since that is the majority. Use what you got.
But I wonder if we’ll ever move past cheering for “cheap” money and consider the advantages of “free” money – the kind you possess before you spend it?
I know, I know…heresy.
#115 Faron on 07.30.20 at 10:43 pm
#110 Sail Away on 07.30.20 at 9:57 pm
#108 Abc123 on 07.30.20 at 9:41 pm
immigration is a mute point…
————-
Is that a really quiet point?
————-
A point emphatically made by mimes.
————-
A point conveyed entirely by signs
The Mute Point
A point emphatically made by mimes
A point entirely conveyed by signs
A point to read
A point to write
A point to be gathered by touch or sight
@#116 The Watcher.
The common denominator in the majority of stores you listed?
Expensive, superfluous, overpriced, unnecessary crap that can be bought cheaper at Costco, WalMart, etc.
Watcher- Sixth Post: You have multiple errors in that list. I work in retail tech and most of your list are my clients. Sbux: actually opening stores
Things Engraved: decision was made long before COVID
Carleton Cards: You’re kidding me- they started closing in 2017
Children’s Place: Ditto
Oh and you conveniently listed Reitmans banners separately. I could go on, sir, but you are intellectually dishonest and do not deserve to be listened to and I dare say deserve no respect.
This is what happened in New Jeresy re: mail in voting
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/07/23/new_jerseys_all-mail_vote_debacle_is_a_warning_for_november_143781.html
@#119 April
Stubborn sellers and the new reality……
I have noticed the same houses for sale on my daily commute for over a year.
Not once have I seen, “price reduced” on any of them.
Some have de-listed.
Moving forward?
We shall see
@#123 BillyBob
“But I wonder if we’ll ever move past cheering for “cheap” money and consider the advantages of “free” money – the kind you possess before you spend it?”
++++
Blasphemer!
How dare you suggest people actually save up the full amount before purchasing?
Easily available credit is a Right.
Where would all the mortgage brokers go for work?
Something about the mismatch in the DOF of the image makes me think the photo was shopped. Leg could have been folded so counting them isn’t deterministic.
DELETED
What!!!! No virus. I guess Trump is right…Fake News. All the so called deaths in North America are mirages.
#131 unbalanced on 07.31.20 at 9:09 am
What!!!! No virus. I guess Trump is right…Fake News. All the so called deaths in North America are mirages.
—–
Wow.. you’re dumb. Go read the article again. If you need help with the big words, let us know.
Do you recommend 60/40 for all ages, even under 30?
If you live in a different world, no, of course not. – Garth
OK, different topic. Question: How much do real people think they’ll need to retire? The advisor industry is all over the map. Most of us have to save and self create, so how much really? Some people live in cities some in remote bergs, so mention that. Personally I don’t think a million is even close. That’s presented most often as a target. However most advisors don’t account for investment income as a primary source of income. I think if you’ve got a few million in dividends you’ll never need to touch the principal.
#108 Abc123 on 07.30.20 at 9:41 pm
63 Abc123 on 07.30.20 at 6:13 pm
By the way, if you borrow cheap money for investment purposes, the interest is all tax-deductible. Plus no CRA payment until the autumn. Thanks, bug.
——-
People are certainly taking advantage of the above , buying ever more real estate property ,for investment purposes ,at ever increasing prices ,in the GTA and surrounding areas .
Real estate in Toronto truly is an invincible asset class with zero vulnerabilities . No kryptonite for real estate .
There is no evidence of this. In fact the investment assets of choice until now – condos – seem to be in trouble. But nice pumping. – Garth
———-
I am not pumping and I am not a realtor . I am simply stating what should be patently obvious to all at this point , including by your own admission , that prices have risen . Since immigration is a mute point , at this point in time, and in addition new home sales Condos or otherwise have been Brisk to say the least , it is fair to say that real estate has survived and Continues to thrive despite what should have been the death blow.
I stand by my Earlier comment .
………………………………………………………………………
Ha, Condos are not homes they are incubators and petri dishes and the bug loves them. Especially in the hallways, common areas and lifts. People are fleeing from hi-density. Toronto real estate may be immune but Condos are suffering.
#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.31.20 at 8:25 am
@#119 April
Stubborn sellers and the new reality……
I have noticed the same houses for sale on my daily commute for over a year.
Not once have I seen, “price reduced” on any of them.
Some have de-listed.
Moving forward?
We shall see
………………………………………………………………..
Not in my area they are moving quickly. I’m east of Greenwood Coxwell and homes and the towns are moving.
#34 Ace Goodheart
He announced that he could not re-set the system.
——————————————————————–
Like my 2018 Subaru Outback.
The automatic function on the passenger side window malfunctions such that when engaged, the window hits the top then “bounces” back down.
They can’t seem to figure out how to fix it properly.
And, electric, self-driving cars are just around the corner.
Hah! Yah right!
#51 Ramshackle
While balanced portfolios naturally could have done better than the TSX composite, I just don’t see how anyone could be dancing in the streets due to their “balanced portfolio…buy and hold” performance.
——————————————————————-
It assumes that not everyone started investing on January 2, 2020, and only in the TSX.
Balanced and Diversified. NOT just 1 index. Get it?
Also, if you’ve been balanced and diversified (multiple sectors, classes, types, etc., etc.) over a long period of time, the period between January and July of 2020 is an insignificant blip on the chart.
Have you not ever seen a chart/graph that illustrates the performance of investments over a long period of time (i.e. decades)? You know, the ones that look like a jagged mountain range reaching ever higher as you pan right?
What are you? NEW?
121 SWL on 07.31.20 at 1:43 am
@TurnerNation
“must be masked and pass a daily app health test. ”
How long until new 5G enabled sensors dot your streets. Toronto Star newspaper already wrote about this. Anyone leaving home with a slight temp. will appear to the heat reading cameras on the street. Your phone will alert you, as will the authorities. Why they dug up our streets for 5g cabling as soon as the lockdown took place. I saw it.
—————–
That’s heavy. It’s crazy how things are actually lining up, and seeing things that are clearly hidden in plane site. I like a quote you said a while ago that i often use now myself
The truth is no longer hidden from us, we hide from the truth
…
Aint that the truth… planes essentially grounded… but the chemtrails dont stop…. nope, they just keep flying spraying us like rats
On Monday you kicked off the week with a dissertation on PM. Enjoyed the article, but all the arguments for retail buyers [pro and con] are well worn. The curious part about PMs is what countries are buying and who is not buying.
The USA holds the largest store of bullion in the world [more than 2x Germany’s store]. Following Germany is Italy, then France, then Russia, and China. China, Russia, and Turkey have all recently increased their purchases of gold. Note: Canada appears to have zero gold reserve. Why would China, Russia, and Turkey be anxious to spend money buying gold at this time?
They are looking for alternative holdings to the US$. – Garth
#136 Vancouver Vanguard on 07.31.20 at 9:54 am
OK, different topic. Question: How much do real people think they’ll need to retire? The advisor industry is all over the map. Most of us have to save and self create, so how much really? Some people live in cities some in remote bergs, so mention that. Personally I don’t think a million is even close. That’s presented most often as a target. However most advisors don’t account for investment income as a primary source of income. I think if you’ve got a few million in dividends you’ll never need to touch the principal
—–
Try to replace 70-100% of your working income. Read about the Yale endowment method for withdrawals… Don’t be so afraid about drawing down principal in a methodical way… if you’ve managed to have a few million in dividends (stocks), you likely want to use some of money to enjoy yourself or treat your family members while you’re alive.
Now if you’re receiving a few million in dividends… that’s a big flex and I’m not sure what you are worried about… Maybe reduce your cost of living??
#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.20 at 10:39 pm
@#111 Stone
“All that creative destruction will eventually flow up until it plumps up my ETFs and their distributions.
Hooray!”
++++
I’ll “see” your comment and “play”.
I manage a small business.
About 6-10 employees depending on how busy we are.
We had an excellent year in 2019.
The other owners wanted juicy dividend payments in early 2020.
I advised we pay 50% of the dividends they wanted and then wait to see what Covid and CERB brings……..
Trudeau jumped in with his “Billions of Dollars Baby” (apologies to Alice Cooper) cash give away….. I was horrified at the future tax implications…..
I have no idea what the next 12 months will bring but we have lots of cash, my inventory is building, and lucrative contracts are still moving forward….for now.
My other partners have grudgingly agreed that it was ….(and still is)….wise to wait with the remaining dividend payments.
———
My ETFs and their distributions thank you for your foresight.
You reinforce my point. When business owners adapt to situations, they survive and thrive. If they don’t, well, I don’t want my money in them. At the same time, customers speak with their wallets.
I threw a comment out this morning and landed the biggest fish in only 18 mins. Thats a Master in my books.
#122 Nonplused on 07.31.20 at 2:20 am
#91 Stone on 07.30.20 at 7:41 pm
#72 Penny Henny on 07.30.20 at 6:44 pm
#20 Stone on 07.30.20 at 3:48 pm
(and others, popular subject)
Small businesses are dying on the vine (a new survey shows one in seven will go bust soon – that’s 160,000 enterprises in Canada.)
——————————-
Small businesses get created and then die all the time, that is true. But usually the “birth rate” and “death rate” are about the same, so employees just move from a failed business to one that is still operating or even expanding. What is happening here is that businesses that should have had a 5, 10 or even 20 year run are all dying all at once with next to no new businesses being formed. It is a disaster.
———
I don’t expect a business to have a de facto 5, 10, or even 20 year run. You can hope for that (like sand passing through your fingers) but it’s silly to expect it.
Businesses that adapt to meet and solve a problem for a price people are willing to pay is all that matters. Don’t do that, don’t expect to survive.
Hi Garth – Are you aware of any reason why Canada couldn’t use existing FSWEP (Federal Student Work Experience Program) to administer “volunteer” jobs for young people? It already exists and unlike WE charity, doesn’t need a $900M bribe. Er, I mean, alleged bribe. Thanks for this blog. It is great!!
#145 unbalanced on 07.31.20 at 11:01 am
I threw a comment out this morning and landed the biggest fish in only 18 mins. Thats a Master in my books.
—-
You truly are a master of your craft…
DELETED
It is absolutely mind-blowing how banks and the rulers treat ‘money’.
Zero nominal rates, highly negative real rates, high banking fees, excessive money printing, fraudulent inflation reporting. They are basically openly screwing with labour, savers, retirees.
Let’s see for how long it can go before breaking the trust in currencies.
I personally have zero trust in it and the first thing I do with my income streams is to convert currencies to liquid assets/the most ‘liquid’ being quality Whiskey.
Cheers,
To Stone,
You have a lot of strong opinions about business. Do you have one yourself? What are your bona fides?
DELETED
DELETED (Now go away.)
#12 Linda on 07.30.20 at 3:24 pm
Have to say I just shook my head at Trump’s ‘suggestion’. Not surprised though. If he doesn’t win in November, I’ve no doubt he’ll claim the election results are false. Getting him to vacate the WH premises is going to be one unpleasant task.
—
Not too hard. Wait till January 20, then disconnect the electricity and running water and he will vacate the premises.
The ideal outcome is Trump losing, but the Republicans gaining in the Congress and at the states level. Won’t happen, the Republicans can’t distance themselves from Trump quickly enough, some are trying but it’s too late. The Democrats aren’t prepared to stand up to the left radicals, the next problem after Trump goes.
#128 paul on 07.31.20 at 8:21 am
First of all. Do we agree (insofar as anyone here actually cares about US elections) that it should be the aim of holding an election that as many people as possible who are registered to vote are made able to vote? I think we can agree on that. Voting should be easy to do for anyone qualified. Correct? Okay.
Mail in voting has worked in Oregon for decades now. As far as I can tell, nobody on either party complains although they may be now that it’s the party line of the right to do so. Remember the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity? Yeah, it crapped out completely because the little there was had no systemic impact. Those running it refused to disclose their results. Hmmmm. Maybe there was hardly any fraud?
Everyone knows that a fully enfranchised US will vote heavily Democrat as the demographics aren’t there for the right if everyone votes. Thus, non-democrats have to do everything in their power to put up barriers to esp. minority voters or to prevent any act that removes barriers.
The US voting system is idiotic in many ways. One of those ways is, in a country where there is no requirement to give time off to vote and where corps limit workers rights wherever possible, holding the vote on a Tuesday. The result is that the people with the most fragile finances either have to take an unpaid day off or cram into the polling stations in the two hours between quitting time and poll closing. In-person voting on a Tuesday acts as a very effective filter against low income people who are predominantly democrat voting.
Under COVID, low income and minority voters are the most likely to have been inordinately exposed to the virus in their workplace and have the least ability to afford being sick. They will shun polls at a higher rate because of the added risk of an in-person vote. The republicans know all of this. These are simply facts that each party is operating from.
The pandemic has been here for six months already and people knew from the get-go that there would be conflict between social distancing and the vote. Why the hell hasn’t anyone started working on this sooner? Sure, if there were problems with mail-in in NJ, given 8 months and with the expertise of states who have run mail-in votes since roughly the dawn of time, those problems could easily be solved.
The republican hand wringing about mail-in voting has nothing to do with voting integrity and everything to do with trying to maintain every legal and semi-legal structurally disenfranchising force that existed before COVID and that has arisen because of COVID.
Well i pulled thd trigger and bought 1 stock again today and it went down 1 %. It kinda related to covid because you need those supplies to peforn the expt. The other one i bought last week for fuji heavy equipment. Its down 10% after i bought it. . 10.50
This is rebuy when i sold it a 12.45.
I know garth tells not to time the market. But i do try to buy and hold for year. However the volatility is wild and you have to ride it as opposed to just sustained slow growth . Its unprecedented times.
So im not buying any more till the market settles. It looks the wind of change are happening to real estate to. A good time to buy next year.. using my cap gains to buy a home. Condo maybe . I need a home and there is lots and lots out there
Why do you buy individual stocks and greatly augment your risk? – Garth
#108 Abc123 on 07.30.20 at 9:41 pm
immigration is a mute point…
————————————————
Is that a really quiet point?
A point emphatically made by mimes.
A point conveyed entirely by signs
Sail Away on 07.31.20 at 7:24 am
The Mute Point
A point emphatically made by mimes
A point entirely conveyed by signs
A point to read
A point to write
A point to be gathered by touch or sight
————————————————————-
And lastly, “There are no words…”
Cheers, R
#154 Faron on 07.31.20 at 12:26 pm
————
…and you call me slippery…
I see no less than six caveats in your post.
You know what they call a tendered bid that includes if-then conditions? Yep, noncompliant.
Now all we have to wait for is your post-election post: ‘…as mentioned before, the Democrats would definitely have won, except… yada yada yada’
Tiresome. MSM has already been saying it continuously for 4 years.
Found out about a 10 year big bank mortgage for under 3%.
What a time to be alive!
…and I’m not positional in my stance on the US election although I would prefer Trump to win.
Have you noticed a middle-of-the-road stance is completely ignored by almost everyone if you express even the slightest approval for anything Trump does?
It’s amusing. Telling, sad, intolerant, and small-minded, yes, but also amusing.
#154 Michael in-north-york on 07.31.20 at 12:23 pm
Not too hard. Wait till January 20, then disconnect the electricity and running water and he will vacate the premises.
—
Ha ha ha. That’s hilarious. Maybe Trump and KEEP YER RENT guy should hang out. I mean, Trump took time to give an interview to Dave Portnoy. Seems he has time on his hands these days in which so little is going on in the world.
#107 Jake on 07.30.20 at 9:16 pm
Trump is losing it by the hour. He certainly is contradicting the advice Fauci gave yesterday that opening schools would be a huge risk given that kids 9+ can transmit covid to others like adults.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/trump-pushes-to-reopen-schools-says-closures-will-probably-cause-more-death.html
—————————————————————
If Fauci had his way he would have us all wearing full hazmat suits. I would say he is the one that’s losing it.
Why do you delete comments? Unless they swear or promote rascism, Leave them on. It shows your huge bias against Trump and is infact censorship. I’m not a huge fan of some of Trump’s actions, but free speech is free speech.
Political comments should be limited to their impact on economic and financial matters. – Garth
#151 Sail Away on 07.31.20 at 11:47 am
To Stone,
You have a lot of strong opinions about business. Do you have one yourself? What are your bona fides?
———
I did. And then I saw the light.
Now, I’m the poster-child of what our host preaches. Living the dream. And having strong opinions that I’m fully entitled to.
Many times I regret posting any form of comment on this site or any other. Investing is a long term activity that requires the investor to look over the horizon.
Most don’t.
#160 Sail Away on 07.31.20 at 1:04 pm
Do we agree that the goal of any democratic electoral system should be to maximize participation of all those who are legally allowed to vote? I’ll go on the record saying yes, that should be the goal.
Given that goal, how do we achieve it without altering the constitution? Here are some ideas that don’t include mail in voting:
–Make it a legal requirement that workers are allowed a minimum of three hours unpaid leave to go to the polls.
–Further to that, allow any lost wages to be taken as a fully refundable tax credit so that workers whose shifts fall on Tuesdays aren’t unduly affected.
–Extend voting hours to as long as is feasible. 24 hours if need be.
–Minimize exit polling coverage until the polls are closed nationwide. (that construes leftward given that the pacific time zone has a lot of weight and runs democrat. fair enough)
Can you agree that some of those are, at least, okay ideas? If not, what are your ideas for maximizing the vote? Or would you prefer the vote not be maximized?
Regardless, Why is it that republicans show ZERO interest in any policies along those lines? What is the alternative explanation for that stance or, to be generous, lack of effort? I’m listening.
Mail-in voting works and has worked. My points stand that attempts to block it are motivated by partisan self-protection and only nominally by claims of potential fraud.
w/re Trump:
With all due respect, your sentence is self-contradictory. A preference is a position.
I’ll start with something I agree with Trump on: infrastructure. This new stimulus bill should have a large infrastructure component. He pushed for this a couple months ago, but I haven’t heard much since. Another one, even though I didn’t like it at the time, he was right to cut travel between the US and China and US and Europe back in March.
Aside from that, it’s very hard not to jump all over a guy who started his campaign by descending an escalator to then call illegal Mexican immigrants rapists and then followed that with an ongoing torrent of insanities. Sure, there may be some good ideas in there, but when confronted with crazy (injecting disinfectant for instance…) those ideas aren’t easy to perceive.
I hate politics….but its time to stand up. Its not capitalism thats bad its greed and corruption and it runs deep in politics.
Trump bashers dont get whats going on.
TurnerNation is right globslism and scocialism is the plan. Closing the boards is irrelavant. If you study communism and how its implimented you may have a clue whats happening. If you dont you are your own worst enemy’s.
Read Ezra Levans book on T2 based on what he has done not speculation. They had it removed from Amazon ect. That ZIS SENSOSHIP. T2 scares me. Surving and gowing 4 business’s an succeding teaches SURVIVAL skills. Its hard as hell to do but we are setup big time now. It DISSCUSSED me how easy T2 handout MY tax dollars ILLEGALLY with no consequences. Ya thats $300,000. Yr of my tax dollars. I shut down and retired im done feeding those pigs. Sorry Garth im just sooo fed up with stupid can kicking policies that delay the inevitable. Cheers and wake up people. None of this is sustainable. Ps stay away from gov bonds.
#164 Stone on 07.31.20 at 1:49 pm
#151 Sail Away on 07.31.20 at 11:47 am
To Stone,
You have a lot of strong opinions about business. Do you have one yourself? What are your bona fides?
———
I did. And then I saw the light.
Now, I’m the poster-child of what our host preaches. Living the dream. And having strong opinions that I’m fully entitled to.
——
Failed lemonade stands don’t count, unless you had RC, RP, RT accounts associated with it…
#160 Sail Away on 07.31.20 at 1:04 pm
Can we agree to limit the overly simplistic name-calling? I’ll do the same. I like to think that you have a sophisticated, even nuanced, view that the above only demeans. Likewise with your use of MSM. We agree that the media landscape is a mess and clear views are not prevalent on any of the major platforms, but “MSM” is a Q-anon trope that is below your intelligence or at least aligns you somewhat with the contrailers.
Sorry for wasting your time today again, Garth.
Like I said the Debt market can blow up. Print and pray is the game.
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/the-most-important-financial-questions-in-your-lifetime/
Justin, We! Are ashamed of you.
Sorry had to say it :)
If you have a mortgage you are still a financial loser. You did drink the kool aid of 3% or lower mortgage rates. You can’t justify that being in debt is a financial win.
#143 ImGSick
Thx for the input. No, not collecting millions in five. Hah, I wish. But have millions collecting divs. Comfortable six figure income. I agree that some could be used without affecting principal. Yale Endowment. I’ll look at it. As a cash multi millionaire without highschool I’d love to hear what they have to say.
Yup. Agree with Jay Currie who posted: “People have called COVID a “black swan” event; but the real black swan is the seeming suspension of the economic laws of physics. Who would have guessed that an unlimited supply of liquidity could keep all the balls in the air.
I suspect I am not the only person who thinks this may be too good to be true.”
—
I also agree Jay. It’s too good to be true. Economists are saying the stock market may be headed for a bubble. The US stock market is buoyed because the feds have been printing money and spending it in stimulus as well as other ways.
The Spanish flu came in 3 waves. The incredible spending of the Trump administration means the USA is in incredible debt. Trillions. Much larger than any administration in American history. Trump’s “keeping the stock markets up” is all flash and show. When the curtain is drawn, the stock markets likely will drop.
The markets are not connected right now to reality of what is happening in the US economy. Small businesses are going under and never will reopen. American cities are in massive debt. School districts are in debt. The States are in debt. Meanwhile… Trump says “feed them cake if they have no bread.” and his tone deaf wife is doing the same.
It will not be a pretty picture when reality catches up with the US stock markets.
You do not understand what drives capital markets, clearly. Volatility is a certain, but collapse is not going to happen. – Garth
to Vancouver Vanguard:
You asked how much is required to retire comfortably? Honestly?
Back in 2015, I emailed Garth and asked him if 3 million would be enough to retire “comfortably”.. and by that I mean just living life normally. Replacing a car every 5-8 years, and going on regular vacations, and dealing with health care costs and issues and etc etc.
But now fast forward to 2020, and I think 3 million may not be enough to retire. Think about it. American (and likely Canada) are printing money like crazy right now thanks to Pandemic. That means the dollar value will decrease and inflation will happen and likely recession.
3 million (that I thought would be enough in 2015) now in 2020.. does not seem sufficient.
And if one wants to leave an inheritance for one’s children and grandchildren… well… I think one needs a more than just 3 million in assets to live off of, and also live comfortably and also leave an inheritance.
I feel it is important to point out that the largest contributor to the GDP of Canada is the real estate, rental and leasing sector (RERL) at 12.5% of total GDP.
Contrary to the rosy predictions of many contributors to this blog the Covid 19 virus will result in a substantial decrease in the total number of real estate transactions completed in 2020 and 2021.
In January the CREA was predicting 520,000 home sales in 2020. In the first six months of 2020 less than 215,000 home sales were completed and estimates for the remaining six months have been lowered to between 200,000 and 210,000 sales. A decline of 20% from the January forecast.
Activity related to new office space or retail space leases has taken a big hit in recent months as the impact of the Covid 19 lockdown sinks in. Vacancy rates will definitely increase and the completion of leases in new space will face strong competition from the assumption of leases in existing buildings.
The full economic impact of changing circumstances in the RERL sector of the Canadian economy has yet to be determined. It seems certain that it the contribution of the RERL sector to GDP in 2020 and 2021 will decline, not increase.
One could analyze the impact of the Covid 19 lockdown on each sector of the Canadian economy but there is a limit to how much bad news one can tolerate.
The Canadian economy was limping along at the end of 2019 and unlike the stock market Covid 19 did nothing to improve our prospects for the future.
It may be difficult to swallow but we must accept the fact that every sector of the Canadian economy that contributes more than 5.0% of our GDP is currently shrinking, not expanding, and faces a number of challenges in the years to come.
Our governments remain focussed in controlling the spread of a virus that poses minimum risk to the general population while the health of our economy is declining every day.
Look up the major contributors to the GDP of Canada and assess whether they are healthy or showing signs of distress. We cannot recover by pretending all sectors of our economy will heal without appropriate care and planning. Highlighting improvements from the previous month seems encouraging but tends to mask the need for a more comprehensive approach to recovery.
The Canadian economy is in distress and cannot heal itself. The Emperor is naked and it is time we took off our rose coloured glasses and bought him some clothes.