When fear wins

If you’re a wuss, these are tough days.

Not only do you need to fret about being infected while shopping for prunes at Loblaws, but the whole financial world seems, well, nuts. The stock market might have jumped 48% since the end of March, rewarding risk, but savers and equity scaredycats have been seriously whacked by Covid.

In fact the decline in returns on guaranteed assets has been breathtaking. Especially at the banks.

Since the virus came to town and CBs responded with emergency rates, savers have seen their investments sink into negative territory. GIC rates have collapsed by about half – from levels that were already punishing to the prudent.

For example, the banks now pay roughly 1% to lock up money for five long years in a non-cashable GIC. There are a couple of outliers, like Tangerine, which still pay a little over 2%, but that’s unlikely to last. One-year rates have sunk to between 0.5% and 0.6% at the banks, while a cashable GIC (if you can find one) is down at 0.45% for a one-year term and 0.6% for three years. Ouch.

This is a disaster for the no-risk folks. The inflation rate, even in a pandemic with eight million people on the dole, is 0.7%. As the economy reopens and spending picks up, this will rise again – likely to the central bank’s target rate of 2%, then beyond. So anything paying less is underwater. Plus, if the GIC is not in a registered account like a TFSA or RSP (and what a tragic misallocation that is) the piteous dribble of interest is also fully taxable at your marginal rate. Even worse, on a multi-year GIC you must pay tax on interest you have not yet received. More ouch.

How long will this last?

Ages. The next central bank rate increase is widely expected in the first quarter or two of 2023, and that’s if we get a vaccine in 2021 with much of herd dosed within the following twelve months. This will allow the economy to more fully reopen, the airplanes to fly full, concerts, pro games, cruises, business meetings and conventions to resume, hotels to fill, malls to populate and the tourism industry to revive. Growth, along with higher rates and better yields, will return – but so will inflation. In fact, with governments spending bazillions of bucks now, you can be assured the cost of living will expand.

For savers this means a neverendum exercise in tail-chasing. Savings rates will eventually, slowly increase, but so will living costs (and likely taxes). Even if a GIC ends up returning a glorious 5% in 2025, the CPI will probably match it. The real return could be zero – which is an improvement over the negative yield savers are now receiving.

So, unless you have a few million to nibble your way through during two or three decades of retirement, you need to change. Stop fearing everything. Understand that by absolutely eschewing risk you’re also waiving off growth, opportunity and a more secure financial life. Don’t underestimate the amount of income you will need after you retire (never, ever believe this myth that retirees can exist on CPP, OAS and unbridled sex), or the number of years you’ll live. Retirement calculators abound, so use one. If you save little during your working years, you’ll probably need to replace almost all your income when you stop. From that deduct the government pogey and whatever corporate pension you might have (most people have none) to establish the shortfall that investment income must cover.

Now run the numbers. A nestegg in GICs paying less than inflation means your capital is exhausted even before your libido is. But a portfolio with a long-term return of 6% or 7% (the average for a balanced and diversified one over the past half century) could mean a forever income stream, a richer life, and some dough left for your ungrateful offspring.

There are lots of good alternatives to brain-dead guaranteed investment certificates. Shares in the big banks are sometimes clobbered by events (like Covid) but they always recover, pay a juicy dividend four times higher than a 5-year GIC, with lower taxes. By the way, our big six banks have never missed a payment. Preferred share values have also been whacked by lower interest rates, but they keep on turning out a 5-6% income stream for investors – and as rates rise in the future (they will – this is the bottom) so will capital values. Best to access these through a diversified pref ETF. Plus you pay less tax than with interest.

Over the past decade we’ve experienced everything but asteroid attacks and locust plagues (actually there are several infestations at the moment). A US debt ceiling crisis. Two oil price collapses. Trade wars. Brexit. Trump. Adele. Hong Kong. Impeachment. Extreme weather. Drake. And a global pandemic. Through it all, a B&D portfolio has returned just over 7%. Incredibly, there are lot of people who – freaked out by the 2008-9 market turmoil – have been in cash or near-cash assets for the past eleven years. They basically have the same money now that they did in 2010, while the guy with a balanced portfolio has doubled his.

Yesterday we talked about the bullion-lickers who buy gold because they believe the world’s ending, we’ll turn into Argentina, or markets are rigged. Many are blinded by their distorted world view. Ditto for the savers, the GIC-afflicted, the insanely risk-averse and those traumatized by headlines.

Don’t stay on the margins. Never let fear be your guide. Act to achieve a goal, not to avoid a threat. Don’t gamble. Do not recoil. Trust what’s coming.

In other words, live like your dog.

170 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 07.28.20 at 3:50 pm

Want a glimpse of the New System? Dancing and signing is banned. Work work work Comrade. Do not stop.

Yup our elites have locked down this planet real good. They told us to #stayhome and use Zoom. All humans are deadly bio-weapons and there is no redemption. Until…they dangle the pharma solution over us.
Nothing changes – in the camps in 1940s IBM (big tech) kept the lists and Bayer pumped out the chemicals.
Today Big Tech controls free speech and monitors our moves in this open air camp; Bayer-Monsanto makes the gunk spread onto our foods.

You no longer have individual rights; those are not part of the New System. We are reduced to children, kept in circles and Chaparoned at the high school dance by Big Brother. Distancing is the ultimate social and economic weapon deployed worldwide.
Prisons are built around Pods – as is our new life.
As with prison visits you get a two-hour window, see below:

WITH DANCE FLOORS VACANT, CANADA’S NIGHTCLUB LIFE FACES AN IDENTITY CRISIS
“Instead of crowds numbering in the hundreds, guests can reserve tickets for up to six of their friends on the patio. Together, they’ll congregate in their circle — or “pod” — for a two-hour window before making way for the next round of partiers. It’s regimented, but for Nahanee, at least it’s happening.”

“A province-wide ban on dance floors went into effect last week after a number of COVID-19 cases linked to bars and clubs raised concerns over close contact. The move dealt another blow to the crippled local club industry that’s struggled to reopen in the midst of the pandemic.”

“On the dance floor, various distancing measures could separate partiers, including circles on the floor that isolate dancers from each other and a double rope that keeps two metres separation from the seated area to prevent overspill.”

#2 Sail Away on 07.28.20 at 3:58 pm

You had me at unbridled sex

#3 Doug t on 07.28.20 at 3:59 pm

Lol if I lived like my dog I’d be eating everything on the sidewalk and rolling in dead things

#4 Oakville Sucks on 07.28.20 at 4:01 pm

So many coworkers including myself have cashed out of the markets about a month ago or so. The upside pressure has been so small at this point we’ve lost about 5% in gains. Downside pressure will erase all gains in the not too distant future. Time to realize gains!

With the economy opening, why would you sell now? Stop trying to be a timing genius. – Garth

#5 Pylot Project on 07.28.20 at 4:18 pm

I’m relatively new to this blog so forgive me if this question has been ask ad nauseum. Who/what do you consider to be a no-risk scardey-cat saver? I have an RSP that is Balanced and a TFSA that is Balanced Growth. Is that not enough risk, or are you referring to folks who simply won’t even put their paw in the water?

You pass. – Garth

#6 Dave on 07.28.20 at 4:19 pm

What next from the banks now that the 6 month mortgage deferral is coming to an end?

#7 O caNnABis! on 07.28.20 at 4:20 pm

DELETED. (Go away)

#8 Catalyst on 07.28.20 at 4:21 pm

Garth, we haven’t hit the recession yet. I don’t know if we will be allowed to experience a recession ever again.

Many companies right now are 20-30% below last years sales and are seeing huge profits. The reason? CEWS is a monster for labor intensive outfits. We are now paying just taking tax dollars and dumping it into the wealthy’s hands and asking them to hire people. It’s a really bad sign and it’s just the beginning as people the strat right now seems to be to curtail CERB and increase CEWS. I honestly don’t see a way out because as soon as CEWS is curtailed then companies will begin the layoffs.

It is a fallacy that a business person will hire workers (or not fire them) if you give them a wage subsidy. Instead they will reduce workers pro-rata and take the subsidy as profit. The only way to make a business hire is to see revenues increase in which case the money should go to consumers who drive demand.

#9 Adam Smith on 07.28.20 at 4:21 pm

Garth, as you’ve discussed, due to the outbreak the springtime house horniness pollen is blowing in the wind a bit later this year and houses in Victoria that were sitting in the market for a few weeks a month ago are now disappearing within hours.

I know we have not hit September and the end of deferrals yet, and I have a good cheap co-op lifestyle and want to play the long game, but is Victoria just legitimately different? Is it going to be kept at ridiculous prices by wealthy Trump-hating Americans and probably now some CPC-fleeing Hong Kongese? The wife is getting antsy, as they do, for something bigger and more importantly, something ours.

Victoria is not different. Why buy now during a little frenzy? – Garth

#10 Sail Away on 07.28.20 at 4:21 pm

#4 Oakville Sucks on 07.28.20 at 4:01 pm

So many coworkers including myself have cashed out of the markets about a month ago or so. The upside pressure has been so small at this point we’ve lost about 5% in gains. Downside pressure will erase all gains in the not too distant future. Time to realize gains!

—————

Sypris Solutions gained 123% today.

Cash gained… oh, zero.

#11 the Jaguar on 07.28.20 at 4:24 pm

Today’s National Post has a story on the upcoming deferral cliff and possible/likely extensions for cash strapped borrowers. Of interest is the comment regarding ‘qualification criteria’.

“The banks were so inundated with requests when the initial announcements were made that they had no operational options but to grant it to everyone,”. “I expect the qualification criteria will be much more stringent (read: there will actually be one) for requests come October.”
Here also is the ‘key’ to all of it. The Kremlin (OSFI) has said the following: “that payment deferrals granted during the initial six-month period should not lead to that loan being deemed as non-performing, or not being paid back. As a result, banks don’t have to hold more capital just because a loan’s payments have been deferred.”
Non performing loans are very untidy affairs for the Banks. Messy things that impact their impeachable track record and tennis whites. I’ve been giggling in recent days at the acronym chosen by a militant group in the USA making a few headlines these days, the “NFAC”. I think the Big Five should have grabbed that one for themselves.

The Bureaucrats at the Kremlin love to puff up their chests and talk like chicken hawks, but they couldn’t start a fire in a match factory without the sound counsel of the Banks.
Sadly this also reads like CERB extension and prolongation of the current economic malaise.

My intuition tells me something unexpected lies ahead that will put an end to all this nonsense. The earth tremors and convulsions ain’t over just yet.

#12 the Jaguar on 07.28.20 at 4:26 pm

crap, that was supposed to be ‘unimpeachable’…grrrr.

#13 Howard on 07.28.20 at 4:27 pm

But a portfolio with a long-term return of 6% or 7% (the average for a balanced and diversified one over the past half century)

————————————–

Your idea of diversified is 60/40, and your reference period is the past half century, of which the past 40 years have been in a non-stop bull market in both bonds and stocks propped up by central bank largesse.

If people want to bet that the next 40 years will be just like the previous 40 years, then sure, the 60/40 portfolio is the best option. They definitely shouldn’t look at stock and bond performance in the 40 years previous to 1980.

#14 YouKnowWho on 07.28.20 at 4:30 pm

#1 TurnerNation

Have you seen Twin Peaks Season 3?

Dr. Amp?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hh7tUfUrHQ

Seems like a nut, right?

How much truth is Dr. Amp laying down though?

Only $29.99! Get your shovel now!

#15 Peter Courtney on 07.28.20 at 4:31 pm

Garth, help me, what the hell is going on with Canadian dividend bluechip stocks? I am underwater on practically everything. After checking with TD and Vanguard ETF’s, I’m not alone!

#16 YouKnowWho on 07.28.20 at 4:33 pm

#1 TurnerNation

Dr. Amp really steps it up in Episode 12 though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXUn5jPNvYw

#17 Yukon Elvis on 07.28.20 at 4:35 pm

#6 Dave on 07.28.20 at 4:19 pm
What next from the banks now that the 6 month mortgage deferral is coming to an end?
……………………

CMHC insurance. Big shock absorber for the banks.

#18 AM in MN on 07.28.20 at 4:50 pm

Garth,

I was the one who made the point about Argentina, and keeping 10% in gold and some in Bitcoin… both to hold, not trade.

Couldn’t happen in Canada…

You mentioned a 5yr GIC paying nothing.

Let’s see where we are in 5 years on gold and bitcoin, and the C$ (& US$), and your balanced portfolio.

What’s different this time is that there is a significant move to the left going on politically in the western world, the opposite of the ’80s & ’90’s. It doesn’t bode well for wealth creation.

In the US, the party that may be running the whole show in a few weeks is cheering on the idea that it’s OK to burn down a federal courthouse and that it’s the police who are the problem. One of the new tourist sites in Minneapolis is the burned out 3rd Police Precinct. People are forming armed neighbourhood watches.

Without private property rights and the rule of law there is no wealth creation, just a fight over the redistribution.

The reference to Argentina comes from looking at different countries over the years and trying to find a parallel. Argentina was wealthier than Canada pre-WWII, they are largely European in ancestry, they have a federalist government system, every resource one could imagine…mineral, food, oceans… but then they turned to socialism.

They rejected the concept of responsible government, that is that the level of government that does the spending should do the taxing. The feds did the taxing (and printing) and gave it to lower levels of government that did the spending, but could never supply enough to fill the appetite as local politicians dreamed up more and more ways for the government to become everyone’s daddy.

Smart people went to work for the government, knowing where the getting was good, and eschewing risk in the dreaded private sector. It didn’t turn around after a few failed years like many thought it might, it got worse as it became accepted over the generations.

The one main difference is that they didn’t border the US, which acts as a damper on the left in Canada because people can leave…remember the “brain drain” debates of the late ’90s!

If you don’t think leftist thinking can take root in Canada and sink the economy over decades, then no worries about investing in real estate for example, or starting a business. Just keep thinking happy thoughts.

Extremist drivel. It has no place in making solid long-term investment decisions. – Garth

#19 JSS on 07.28.20 at 4:58 pm

I just got a mortgage renewal from the green bank…2.14% five year fixed. And I dressed up in my black hoodie and black sabbath ‘master of reality’ T-shirt, when i went to the bank! They still gave me an awesome rate. OMG im so happy!

#20 Nick on 07.28.20 at 5:02 pm

Don’t buy Gold.

Buy a home in lower brainland BC, you will be handsomely rewarded.

#21 Faron on 07.28.20 at 5:06 pm

#15 Peter Courtney on 07.28.20 at 4:31 pm

I am underwater on practically everything. After checking with TD and Vanguard ETF’s, I’m not alone!

Give it a few more months. They are boring so have resisted the stonkmarket bubble. There’s a lot of upside here.

#22 Linda on 07.28.20 at 5:08 pm

Regarding hotels etc. Just how long can they remain closed or without significant clientele before that ‘temporarily closed’ sign becomes ‘permanent’? Like other service based industries, the lack of clients doesn’t stop the cost of operating the building completely. If the building was used as a temporary quarantine facility I don’t know that anyone would be willing to stay in it, vaccine or no vaccine.

#23 Faron on 07.28.20 at 5:10 pm

Here’s a great take on current econ state from Paul Krugman

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/07/28/paul-krugman-policy-makers-reopened-too-soon.html

#24 Yukon Elvis on 07.28.20 at 5:17 pm

#15 Peter Courtney on 07.28.20 at 4:31 pm
Garth, help me, what the hell is going on with Canadian dividend bluechip stocks? I am underwater on practically everything. After checking with TD and Vanguard ETF’s, I’m not alone!
………………………

Check out the longer term charts for the Big Five banks . They took a beating in 08/09 and continued to pay the 6% dividends. From the trough in 09 to the trough today three of them have doubled and two have tripled in value, all the while paying the juicy dividends. I started buying them during the 09 dip and I buy more every 3 months when the dividends roll in. I am buying again at the end of this month when the divs get deposited in my accounts. Think long term, this will pass.

#25 WhackoNation on 07.28.20 at 5:20 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 07.28.20 at 3:50 pm
Want a glimpse of the New System? Dancing and signing is banned. Work work work Comrade. Do not stop.
….

Ya might want to get a job dude….you ain’t gonna make it out of that CV rabbit hole

#26 MF on 07.28.20 at 5:23 pm

AM in MN on 07.28.20 at 4:50 pm

Someone has been exposed to the clown world that is social media a little too much. Every issue is black and white online. It’s a world of sickos.

Lol @ that US comment though. The american left has always been much more extreme than the Canadian left, and the gap is accelerating. Canadians are actually centrist, generally.

MF

#27 SunShowers on 07.28.20 at 5:34 pm

Prudent advice, but very unlike you to explicitly call a bottom (or top, for that matter)!

Not trying to be a doomer, but with the relaxed restrictions in Canada and Europe, a second wave is possible…and with the US going to hell in a handbasket with their own pandemic woes and eviction moratorium ending. They’re anticipating 30 million people being made homeless, triple the number of 2008.

#28 Howard on 07.28.20 at 5:38 pm

#23 Faron on 07.28.20 at 5:10 pm
Here’s a great take on current econ state from Paul Krugman

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/07/28/paul-krugman-policy-makers-reopened-too-soon.html

——————————

Since when does any serious person listen to the Keynesian statist quack Krugman?

“Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.” – P. Krugman, 2002

#29 Westcdn on 07.28.20 at 5:40 pm

Interesting views. I don’t agree with the lot. I will take my chances standing out from the herd. Yeah, I could die but I am not afraid. How I die is another question.

I just don’t want to be burden on anyone.

I have to speak to Dolce Vita. I like my bread tough and eat my hard tack with onions and Cdn cheddar. I don’t need easy carbs to absorb as Italian food is great. I don’t eat much pasta. The Saskatchewan farmers I know ship a lot of durum wheat to Italy. Some of the best people I have met – both my parents were from there. Dirty 30’s and all that.

I don’t mean to be disrespectful as Italians have always treated me well.

#30 Stone on 07.28.20 at 5:51 pm

Over the past decade we’ve experienced everything but asteroid attacks and locust plagues (actually there are several infestations at the moment).

———

Great! Go ahead and paint the devil on the wall. Now, let’s just wait for the MSM to tell us of the impending locust infested asteroid attack (aka Starship Troopers).

#31 KNOW IT ALL on 07.28.20 at 5:52 pm

What makes us think we will go back to the way life was before Covid?

The TECHNOLOGY infrastructure is being developed at a massive rate so we no longer need to leave our homes to enjoy life.

Change is already here and turning on strong.

Work from home, get everything delivered, etc.

We finally have realized what’s important in life and much of what is getting killed off was already in the pits before Covid.

Be prepared for a monumental shift in the evolution
of the human lifestyle

Unless you think were going back to riding a horse and carriage and straws are still being made from plastic.

#32 Bill on 07.28.20 at 5:57 pm

And why are we so worried? I never was. Math doesn’t lie just the media.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/press/youtube-is-engaged-in-sedition-to-overthrow-the-government/

#33 yvr_lurker on 07.28.20 at 6:07 pm

With an RESP that will have a likely big 25K withdrawal in 2 years I put all the funds into a 1-year GIC at 1.4% when the TSX was around 15500. My bet is that when the second and third waves hit this fall and when Trudeau has no more cash to throw out that the TSX will be a good deal lower by next June 1st. Time will tell, but I am not so optimistic. Long term though with other funds it is just best to stay the course, and I will throw more $$ in when the next dip happens.

#34 Coho on 07.28.20 at 6:14 pm

Trusting the establishment “experts” that vaccines will turn the clock back to 2019 and get us back to “normal” is akin to believing that an injection of heroin will get you through a rough spot in life…but this “little helper” will take over your life. Early full dose vaccines trials have a 100% side effect rate. They’re bypassing animal trials and using humans as guinea pigs. Let’s wake the hell up!

Remember the two week holiday to “flatten the curve”? And that was when 2 million US Covid deaths were forecast. We’re less than one-tenth that and tyranny abounds. Why would anyone still put their blind trust in government when corruption is being exposed every day?

Things don’t always bounce back to what they were, rather they often remain forever changed. Back in 2008-2009 most of us thought low mortgage rates would return to the typical 8% and quickly. There were countless reasons why the economy could not sustain low interest rates. Hasn’t happened. Why? Because the very dark force behind world affairs devises schemes that are so intellectually advanced and complicated they stump even the smartest among the experts.

Things stay the same until they become different. Yes, this too shall pass but it doesn’t mean sunshine is on the other side especially in this increasingly Godless world. Maybe there are certain investments people can still rely on to behave as they have and keep their wealth. However, the ruling elite are very good at devising ways of separating average people from their money. The middle class is destroyed creating a haves and have nots situation birthing the one percenter mentality which causes turmoil. They’ve been doing it for a long time.

The anger/resentment to the one percenters is misdirected because by and large it is they that grow large businesses and employ people. It is the low profile 0.0001 percenters that pull the manipulative strings, however, they too, have their masters.

A prosperous, employed, self sufficient, educated, able, honest and free society ensures a bright future, however this is not the direction society is heading. Sadly, we’re headed in the opposite direction.

#35 Faron on 07.28.20 at 6:16 pm

Interesting to me and maybe a tad overly simplistic ;-): US 10 year down to 0.58%. That’s right. Loan the US gov’t money for ten years and you get a touch over a half a percent annual interest. This is a deep negative rate relative to inflation. Yields are starting to scrape lows last seen when oil futures went negative back in April. Despite tons of supply, there’s no lack of demand who, essentially, are paying the US to safely hold their money for them. Maybe those people have notions about deflation that others do not?

Curiously, yields climbed from April 21 through about June 22nd maybe indicating a gradual roll away from safety into equities as the economy opened, a positive jobs report came in and COVID cases dropped in the US. But they started back down riiight about when COVID cases started to build back up. Hmmmmmm. The entire yield curve is less steep than it was back in April too. The bond market seems fearful. The gold market shows fear. Vix is about as low as its been since this whole thing started, but still elevated relative to the before times. Equities are at blissful levels. I’d wager some turbulence is on the way. On the upside, the new case rate in the US seems to be plateauing at a mere 65,000 cases a day. Hopefully death rates will plateau in coming weeks.

Of course, for long term investing, none of this matters. In three years, this will all be a fading memory to your portfolio. In the mean time, be brave (telling myself that).

#36 Joe on 07.28.20 at 6:25 pm

The last decade also included unprecedented money printing in the trillions that was injected into stocks and real estate. You never mention this though!

#37 SoggyShorts on 07.28.20 at 6:40 pm

#13 Howard on 07.28.20 at 4:27 pm

If people want to bet that the next 40 years will be just like the previous 40 years, then sure, the 60/40 portfolio is the best option. They definitely shouldn’t look at stock and bond performance in the 40 years previous to 1980

************************
I’ll bite, what was the average return for 1940-1980? Looks like 11%+ for the S&P 500(unless I’m misreading the charts?) , not sure about bonds though.

#38 Do we have all the facts on 07.28.20 at 6:47 pm

The theory behind investing in a balanced and diversified portfolio is that over time economies, and the financial activities that support economies, will increase in value.
The average annual increases will vary from year to year but as a general rule economic growth always exceeds the rate of inflation.

This theory makes sense when you consider that with the exception of 2009 the GDP of countries where the majority of profit oriented companies are located has always grown. All governments in the world are committed to economic growth so investing in a broad range of activities that are closely tied to economic growth has limited risk.

The current infatuation with investments related to gold or bitcoins poses a greater level of risk for all investors. This risk arises because these assets have virtually no connection to economic growth. Their value is based a belief that the performance of major economies will decline and that the decline in performance will increase the price of gold or the value of a bitcoin.

Based on history betting against economic growth in the long run is not a sound investment. It is important to remember the collective global forces tied to economic growth when choosing where to invest for retirement.

Who wants to live in, or even imagine, a chaotic world where the economy declines year after year. Better to invest in development of a much rosier future than that.

#39 SoggyShorts on 07.28.20 at 6:55 pm

Retirement calculators abound, so use one. – Garth

My favourite retirement math is what I call the
“10K-dollar-a-day”

With a withdrawal rate of 3.65%* you can spend $1 per day for every $10K you have saved-forever.
Adjusting for inflation each year, of course.

*The “4% rule” failure rate goes up from 5% to over 50% when applied to 40,50, and 60 year long retirements. 3.65% was about where I landed due to a total lack of pension and minimal CPP contributions. See the links below to find your historically safe withdrawal rate.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-series/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QGrMm6XSGWBVLI8I_DOAeJV5whoCnSdmaR8toQB2Jz8/edit?usp=sharing

#40 MF on 07.28.20 at 7:01 pm

32 Bill on 07.28.20 at 5:57 pm

Well it’s clear they have white coats on so they must be experts on things health.

Hey TurnerNation what are the odds these people are paid actors given a script and told to a wear white coat while doing it?

Gotta say though, this conspiracy theory stuff is so easy. Just pick any topic you disagree with and blame it on someone invisible.

Anyways,

YouTube is being used to millions of entrepreneurs around the world to make money. There are tons of channels that actually teach people and are a positive contribution to mankind. My girlfriend watches videos on plants. Myself exercises and gym routines as examples. Not everything has to be politicized. YouTube was right to remove that type of trash video. Oh, and they should shutter the comments too.

MF

#41 fishman on 07.28.20 at 7:01 pm

I agree with AM in MN in that Canada is similar to Argentina. I had a long talk with an Argentinian that went through the “troubles”. Military Junta. Air force loading communist students into transports & “dropping them off” out over the south Atlantic. You survived in the city. You started hustling at daybreak. Spent the day getting around acquiring necessities to survive. Back in the apartment before dark. Isolated in hinterland no go. Very dangerous. Roving bandit gangs of young men. Highest quality was smaller towns,SFH, small acreages with neighbours. Everyone with a barking dog & shotgun. People specialized & traded. Decent life.
Goes without saying if you had access to $U.S. & spoke Spanish then Buenos Aries: great weather, beautiful women,gorgeous architecture,food, wine,tango bars. Holidays seaside in Montevideo. Invest wisely,be rich, live good.

#42 Nonplused on 07.28.20 at 7:02 pm

“In other words, live like your dog.”

My dog does not have a portfolio that I am aware of.

Anyway, this post, as always, is bang on. You can’t survive in cash in an inflationary environment. And we are in an inflationary environment, no matter what the phony CPI numbers they give us are. You can’t have house prices rising 10%/y in the two largest cities in the land and have no inflation. The fact is they massage the heck out of the numbers with things like “hedonic adjustments” and “owner’s equivalent rent” and “substitution”.

“Hedonic adjustments” are best exemplified by cars and computers. Cars, for example, cost 10 times or more what they did in 1970, but they hardly move the inflation meter because now they have an airbag and anti-lock brakes (both of which are now mandatory). Computers subtract from the CPI because the processor is faster, but no adjustment is made for the fact that now you have to have one and it needs to be replaced every 5 years. Phones same thing. They monitor the cost of a land line but ignore the fact that now everyone in the family needs a smart phone and a “plan” and also has to replace it every 3-5 years.

“Owner’s equivalent rent” is the biggest joke out there because it is highly dependant on interest rates. So they are basically “financing” there way out of looking at what housing prices are doing.

“Substitution” is the idea that if steak gets too expensive people will eat ground beef instead, so they only really monitor the cheapest stuff that nobody wants. I am sure that is what happens in real life but it still indicates a loss of “lifestyle”. How long until the grocery component reflects the price of squirrel meat? Stake is not getting any cheaper, not even at Costco. It’s like $27/kg and that is for the cheap stuff. And Kirkland brand TP has gone from $14 a bag to $18 just this year alone. But I suppose you could substitute poplar leaves for it so the inflationary effect is negative. You can find them for free in the yard along with the squirrel meat.

So ya, saving sucks. Cash is for clowns. The CPI is directionally accurate but it by no means reflects what we are living through. The best inflation indicator there is the price of a McDonald’s hamburger. Yes, I am serious. The price of a McDonald’s hamburger represents the cost of food, labour, energy, transportation, real estate, taxes, capital goods (the kitchen), and even computers all in one lowest cost denominator with no further substitution available. In 1955 that burger was 15 cents. The CPI probably does match up pretty good with the price of a McDonald’s hamburger but who wants to eat there? Have you seen how they make those patties and processed cheese slices? Gross. Yummy, but gross.

#43 Ace Goodheart on 07.28.20 at 7:09 pm

Re: #1 TurnerNation on 07.28.20 at 3:50 pm

I kind of like the “new normal”.

No drunken Friday and Saturday night crowds wandering through my neighbourhood, peeing on everything (the hedge rows are doing much better this year, than they ever have done – no brown spots where people create communal, open air bathrooms).

No wild late night parties at the Legion.

No annoying little gangster boys and their muffler-less, backfiring crap box cars.

Peace, and quiet.

If I want a beer, I order some on my computer. A van stops out front of my house, a masked man rings the door bell (and this time he is not trying to rob me, he is actually bringing me something), and I end up with 24 craft beers, in tall cans, of my choosing, for just over $50.00.

I don’t even have to leave the house!

I can get groceries delivered. The services are blossoming like mushrooms on one of the public pee spots that have now disappeared on my street. They are getting cheaper. Maybe I’ll never go to a grocery store again. Wouldn’t that be wonderful. No more stinking, pushy people, bumping their carts into me in line, while their children try to climb my legs.

I am free to tend my garden, which looks better this year than it ever did before.

I can now do all of my meetings by “zoom”. As long as I am dressed on the top, I can wear whatever I like on the bottoms, and I don’t even need to shower.

COVID-19 life is very, very, very good. I am having a wonderful time.

Please do not come up with a vaccine, people. I don’t want to go back to how things were before. This “new normal” is much, much better.

#44 will on 07.28.20 at 7:15 pm

G&M reports today that the ECB is extending a ban on bank dividends til the end of the year. I didn’t even know they had banned them in the first place. Any thoughts Garth? Could that happen here?

Why would it? – Garth

#45 Faron on 07.28.20 at 7:16 pm

#183 Sail Away on 07.28.20 at 3:31 pm

#181 Faron on 07.28.20 at 2:53 pm

Horse, water, leading…

Full sentences please.

By that I mean: come at me with your thesis w/re ASMR.TO and I’ll have a look. Last time you crowed about a ticker it dropped 20% starting within hours of your call. Other times you called your buys when the ticker then stayed flat and missed the last three months of gains a less concentrated portfolio would have made.

I’ll go out on a limb and give you a quick glance at what I see having given it ten minutes of my time:

+low debt
+decent price to book
+likely gangbusters earnings call afoot as I write
+low P/E likely to go lower (if above is right)

-Highly exposed to the dalliances of Tayyip Erdogan
-Who knows when the gold bubble will pop and, when it does, if there will be a clear sign to get out. Probably not.
-They don’t produce anything useful.
-14pt short interval RSI is meh. Not a buy at the moment regardless of any positives.
-Bubbles are a hard no for me.
-Stock in single mines takes uncertainty in an equity and multiplies it by uncertainties in commodities and again by uncertainties in geotechnical modelling that can be very large for ore bodies. I’ve been a direct witness to the ups and downs of a copper mine in AZ. When good, it’s good. When bad, the whole thing just stops.

What’s your take?

#46 Long-Time Lurker on 07.28.20 at 7:18 pm

So, Twitter censored President Trump, today. I wonder what the fall-out is going to be?

#47 Long-Time Lurker on 07.28.20 at 7:18 pm

>Acres of Diamonds.

RBC agrees to buy electricity from new southern Alberta solar power farm project
BY THE CANADIAN PRESS

Posted Jul 28, 2020 8:21 am PDT Last Updated Jul 28, 2020 at 8:32 am PDT

CALGARY — The Royal Bank of Canada says it is the first Canadian bank to sign a long-term renewable energy power purchase agreement, a deal which will support development of a 39-megawatt, $70-million solar project in southern Alberta.

The bank has agreed with green energy retailer Bullfrog Power to buy the majority of the electricity produced by the project to be designed and built by BluEarth Renewables of Calgary.

The project is to provide enough power for over 6,400 homes and the panel installations will cover 120 hectares, the size of 170 soccer fields.

The solar installation is to be built in the County of Forty Mile, a hot spot for renewable power that was also chosen by Suncor Energy Inc. for its $300-million 200-MW wind power project (approved last year and then put on hold during the COVID-19 pandemic).

BluEarth says commercial operations at its Burdett and Yellow Lake Solar Project are expected to start up in April 2021.

It says the agreement shows that renewable energy can be cost-competitive in a deregulated electricity market like Alberta’s, adding the province has some of the best solar and wind resources in Canada.

“We’re proud to be the first Canadian bank to sign a long-term renewable energy power purchase agreement, demonstrating our commitment to clean, sustainable power,” said Scott Foster, senior vice-president and global head of corporate real estate at RBC….

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/07/28/rbc-agrees-to-buy-electricity-from-new-southern-alberta-solar-power-farm-project/

#48 Sail Away on 07.28.20 at 7:20 pm

Wow, I can’t even understand what people are writing about today

Maybe it’s because we started office brewskies at 3?

#49 Ace Goodheart on 07.28.20 at 7:23 pm

Here’s the rest of the story on that little million dollar house that everyone was up in arms about yesterday:

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2020/07/why-tiny-toronto-house-worth-1-million/

As those in the know were saying, this is really a building lot, not a house. The house is just something that is in the way and will have to be bull dozed before construction begins.

A 20 foot wide, 120 foot deep lot, with a detached house, and a two car garage at the back, accessed by a laneway, is a very nice thing in that neighbourhood.

You could probably even get a variance to build right up to the lot line, meaning your house could be 20 feet wide (the lot has access from the back, through the laneway, so usually you can get a variance to waive the two foot set back), if there is another way to get into the backyard.

The lot is actually priced low to generate a bidding war.

It is a lot sale, not a house sale. The house is just going to be put in a bin.

#50 Nonplused on 07.28.20 at 7:24 pm

PS, one more inflation example:

In 2011 I bought a brand new Ram 3500 that was MSRP $72,000 (I didn’t pay that there were big dealer incentives at the time, the main one being “diesel is free” which was worth $8,000 right there). The dealership keeps sending me promotions because they figure I am due for a new truck. Like for like, the new MSRP is $102,000. So far as I can see all they did was put in a larger touch screen. Does that sound like 2% inflation to you? A little Excel action indicates the new MSRP should be $83,000. Now, the Loonie cratered over that time but still, how is that not reflected in the inflation numbers? The same truck is 23% more expensive than 2% would indicate over just 9 years! And yes I don’t really “need” my truck, I just use it to tow my RV, but a lot of businesses really do need one. And they have to recover the cost through their cost of service.

#51 Investx on 07.28.20 at 7:24 pm

“Shares in the big banks are sometimes clobbered by events (like Covid) but they always recover, pay a juicy dividend four times higher than a 5-year GIC, with lower taxes. By the way, our big six banks have never missed a payment.”

How much of a threat to that record is the imminent mortgage deferral cliff?

Zero. – Garth

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.20 at 7:25 pm

@#42 nonplused

“Yummy but gross”
+++

I was in a Tim Hortons lineup a few years back.
We all watch silently as two little gals lifted a 5 gallon Bucket of pre mixed Ice coffee and poured it into a dispenser……scooping out the goop at the bottome with a ladle and glopping it into the counter dispenser……
The colors of the syrupy goo at the bottom of the 5 gallon pail were bizarre.
Everyone was trying not to gag.
I said, “THAT looks yummy!”
Everyone laughed.

#53 Camille on 07.28.20 at 7:25 pm

Great post, thank you. I was once in GICs, following David Trahair’s Enough Bull book. Missed the 2008 drawdown.
But I humbly cannot find any dispute with Garth’s straightforward driving post today, every bit of it.

#54 Old gringo on 07.28.20 at 7:27 pm

Well we do live in interesting times indeed!
I’m a believer we’re in for a world of hurt coming down the pipe.
Garth is very correct with balance in a portfolio and I’ve followed this advice and done well.
However, I’m done with the taxes and BS that goes with the Canada deal, so I’m booking out, back to the laid back good life.
Golfing, fishing and quality tequila, sometime that just don’t exist here.
Be safe amigos, will check in occasionally.
OG

#55 Dr. Freud on 07.28.20 at 7:31 pm

#1 Turner Nation

Your posts are the workings of a paranoid person. Get help cowboy! What a sad life you must lead…

#56 Bill on 07.28.20 at 7:32 pm

#40 MF on 07.28.20 at 7:01 pm
There are plenty of actors around portraying BS.
I guess you don’t know what big tech is up to? I spent 30 years building networks. Sure there lots of good things about YouTube, But its censorship city and is all around in a big way.
BTW One of the Doctors that spoke has 6 clinics in California…He’s one of the few I’ve seen make complete sense. I’ve seen his stuff taken down by SM a number of times.
I credit my early retirement age by not following the MS media.
52 and kicking it.
Vancouver OPOID DEATHS IN 6 MONTHS 731! COVID DEATHS 189!
Ya lets kill the economy!? I owned 4 business’s and we haven’t even seen the fallout of this, and its a lot more dangerous than Covid to many people health.
Cheers

#57 Bill on 07.28.20 at 7:35 pm

PS the debt will never be paid. Its way worse than we think. I have none :-)

#58 cuke and tomato picker on 07.28.20 at 7:36 pm

My wife and I just locked in $73837.31 for 5 years at 1.65
per cent. We have both have teaching degrees so we have pensions.Also we just got our first welfare cheque from the government and its TAX FREE, What a country and living the charmed life in VictOria BC.

#59 Nonplused on 07.28.20 at 7:38 pm

PPS, the reason the dealer is so horny to get me to trade in my old truck, besides the commissions, is because used trucks in good shape have detached from the usual depreciation curve for vehicles. My 9 year old truck is worth 50% of what I paid for it new, unheard of. Why? Because new trucks are simply unaffordable.

#60 Idiocy on 07.28.20 at 7:49 pm

to comment #23 Far gone Faron

Krugman is an idiot.

Check his famous quote about the internet circa 1998.
Google search “Paul Krugman internet quote”

There is an abundance of stupid ideas from this quack, just do a little due diligence before providing a link.

Try Nouriel Roubini or Shiller or Robert Schiller amongst others.

What were you saying 22 years ago? Pass the Huggies? – Garth

#61 Bill on 07.28.20 at 7:50 pm

#42 Nonplused on 07.28.20 at 7:02 pm
+1!
Yup still got my gold $325 and Silver $7. My PM juniors up many 100% the last year. I skipped the bear, their no fun..Its going to be a heck of a run.
I used the boom to pay down all my debts commercial RE ect rather then go deeper into it.
Tangibles….all they know how to do is print. Some paper is reps tangibles obviously….just need companies that survive.
Luck!

#62 Drinking on 07.28.20 at 8:00 pm

When Cerb ends and flu season arrives then we will see the real story; I am keeping a little in the market but selling as fast as I can.

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.28.20 at 8:01 pm

Day traders and stock timers are like drug addicts.
Stock up- euphoria. Stock down – panic.
Get off the roller coaster, before you get a panic attack and end up in ER.

#64 Idiocy on 07.28.20 at 8:02 pm

to comment $ 40 MF

“Oh, and they should shutter the comments too”

Good old MF – always the advocate for free speech.
/ sarc

Yeah , as long as YouTube censors what you don’t like or agree with.

I guess you really, really want to stay inside your Toronto centric narrow little world – hint: not a sign of real intellect dude.

#65 Unbridled Rex on 07.28.20 at 8:03 pm

#3 Doug t on 07.28.20 at 3:59 pm

Lol if I lived like my dog I’d be eating everything on the sidewalk and rolling in dead things

————————————-

EXACTLY Garth’s point! Is your dog worrying about it or suffering any ill consequences?

Plus, we benefit by having cleaner sidewalks!

#66 WhackoNation on 07.28.20 at 8:04 pm

#29 Westcdn on 07.28.20 at 5:40 pm
Interesting views. I don’t agree with the lot. I will take my chances standing out from the herd. Yeah, I could die but I am not afraid. How I die is another question.

I just don’t want to be burden on anyone.

I have to speak to Dolce Vita. I like my bread tough and eat my hard tack with onions and Cdn cheddar. I don’t need easy carbs to absorb as Italian food is great. I don’t eat much pasta. The Saskatchewan farmers I know ship a lot of durum wheat to Italy. Some of the best people I have met – both my parents were from there. Dirty 30’s and all that.

I don’t mean to be disrespectful as Italians have always treated me well.
….

Way to catch a break….my BIL got whacked by some….then again there were signs… olive trade.

#67 Dave Says: on 07.28.20 at 8:05 pm

RE: Yesterday’s Gold Column…

Garth is right….You can’t buy gas with your gold coins…not yet, anyway.

True Story

Yes, I used to be a “Gold Bug”…. in the early 2000’s I had accumulated approximately 60 ounces of the shiny stuff, mostly Gold Maple Leafs, with a few five and ten ounce bars thrown in for good measure….Most accumulated in the $350-$450/ounce range.

In 2010, I needed to borrow about six figures to purchase a new truck for my trucking business. I walked into my bank with all of the shiny stuff tucked into a purple Crown Royale bag with the pretty gold braid tightly tied…(and yes, I leaned a bit to portside when walking…. that S*** is HEAVY!).

At that point I had known my banker for about ten years, and had a very affable relationship with both he and his branch. Knowing he was a bit of a closet gold bug himself, I thought he would be pleased that I was offering up all of my hard-earned shiny for part collateral against the loan.

As I’m dumping my little baggie of gold out onto his desk and watching his eyes light up in the process (after making sure his office door was closed!) and explaining what it was for, I was treated to this stunning revelation….

“WELL DAVE, THAT’S REALLY BEAUTIFUL STUFF, BUT WE CAN’T USE YOUR GOLD FOR COLLATERAL!”

After explaining about all the reasons and rules and banking regulations that prohibited such a thing, I incredulously asked him what he would propose as a solution. His answer was to liquidate the gold and buy bonds…. government bonds, bank bonds, provincial bonds, corporate bonds……and then he could accept THOSE as part-collateral for my loan!

Grrrrr…”You mean to say that you won’t accept 100% physical gold bullion as collateral, but you WILL accept pieces of ink-covered paper instead?”

“Yep” he says….. “I don’t make the rules, because if I did all that gold on my desk would be in my bank vault by now and you’d be signing on the bottom line for your new equipment”.

At that point, I realized that yes, I had my shiny, and yes, it had appreciated handsomely in the previous few years…… but what good was it when crunch time came and I needed to utilize the gains. I know bullion dealers would have taken it in a heartbeat, but I was trying to preserve some (so-called!) “liquid assets” without going that route.

As it turned out, my banker and I came to a solution that didn’t involve using the gold as collateral, and we all lived happily ever after…..except that I came to realize that this “store of value” could be quite an inconvenience if push came to shove.

I sold (almost) all of the gold off a couple of years later and invested in a “well diversified portfolio”…including a few gold miners, just to keep my hand in the game!

Evidently, as I understand things, under the new BASIL agreement of a year or two ago, gold can now be considered a bank asset. Can anyone verify if that came to pass and applies to bank branches in Canada, or just to the gold that Central Banks hold in their vaults? Thanks.

#68 Faron on 07.28.20 at 8:09 pm

#46 Long-Time Lurker on 07.28.20 at 7:18 pm

So, Twitter censored President Trump…

Like this blog’s comments section, Twitter is a private platform. It can choose to publish or not publish whatever it wants at risk of gaining or losing ad revenue in doing so. More so if its terms of service are violated.

In my opinion, Twitter, FB and ISP among others should all be treated and regulated as utilities. As such, censorship would be a problem. Until that happens, who cares. A decent leader has the self control to not lead with their thumbs.

And it boggles the mind that HCQ is still a thing when there are numerous other (cheap i.e. dexamethasone) treatments that can be more clearly shown to effectively treat COVID. The horse is dead. Stop flogging it.

#69 jess on 07.28.20 at 8:09 pm

Trump complains about Fauci’s high approval rating, wonders why his isn’t as high
============
This brings real fear to me!

Immanuel responded in her own way, declaring that Jesus Christ would destroy Facebook’s servers if her videos weren’t restored to the platform.

Dr. Stella Immanuel, who claimed that the controversial anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine was a “cure” for Covid-19 and that masks aren’t necessary, was pulled from the platforms for sharing misinformation about the disease.
Immanuel’s more bizarre previous medical claims. The Daily Beast reported Tuesday that Immanuel has claimed in the past that some gynecological ailments are caused by people having sex in a dream-world with demons, with the demonic semen as the origins of the afflictions.

Immanuel has also claimed that doctors used alien DNA in medical treatments, and that lizard-like “reptilian” aliens are involved in the United States government. Immanuel has also refused to provide proof of her claim that she’s cured hundreds of Covid-19 patients with hydroxychloroquine.

#70 Victor V on 07.28.20 at 8:14 pm

Nearly 100 units hit the market in one Yorkville condo

https://trnto.com/100-units-hit-market-in-yorkville-condo

#71 Let's be respectful on 07.28.20 at 8:14 pm

TurnerNation’s historical perspective is accurate. History repeats itself, watch Jane Burgermeister Wake Up Call videos,
and you’ll say ‘hey, I’ve seen that movie, same script writer’, except it’s ten years later.

#72 Idiocy on 07.28.20 at 8:16 pm

to comment # 45 Far gone Faron

Man, you just don’t get it.
Paul Krugman article and then this nonsense?

You may not be as savvy as you think you are.

Remember ” … a little knowledge can be dangerous…”

#73 NearSighted on 07.28.20 at 8:18 pm

#23 Faron on 07.28.20 at 5:10 pm
Here’s a great take on current econ state from Paul Krugman

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/07/28/paul-krugman-policy-makers-reopened-too-soon.html

——————————————————-

Hindsight is 20/20, unless you are investing in 2020, then it’s 60/40. Geesh….haven’t you been following this blog?

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.20 at 8:19 pm

@#55 Dr Freud

Ahhh, but what a case study Turner Nation would make if you cured him.
You’d be famous, books, lecture tours, possibly a Nobel Prize…..
Mein Gott Herr Doktor!
Dont delay.
And then there’s Ponzie…….

#75 Bill on 07.28.20 at 8:27 pm

Sorry all of BC!
There were 175 deaths due to illicit drugs in June in BC, up from previous high of 171 in May. 731 deaths since January. Total BC Covid death? 189!
Yup KILL the economy….
Dumb A$$es far as I’m concerned

#43 Ace Goodheart on 07.28.20 at 7:09 pm
How many RESTAURANTs like “the new normal” ??? Many will never make it so you like high unemployment figures?? I guess the gov can pay them to sit at home for ever? That will will come in a form of increased taxes for you. And who’s going to pay the city’s all those mega millions in land taxes? They wont have enough for budgets.
I’ve got one commercial tenant likely to go under. Shes a whiner anyway anyway. My Tax bill for one of my properties in Courtenay is $50,000.00. It keeps people in a lively hood.
So if you like to be a couch potato that’s your prerogative…You could move to a quiet place?

#76 Faron on 07.28.20 at 8:33 pm

#67 Idiocy on 07.28.20 at 8:16 pm

to comment # 45 Far gone Faron

Man, you just don’t get it.
Paul Krugman article and then this nonsense?

You may not be as savvy as you think you are.

Remember ” … a little knowledge can be dangerous…”

Excuse me? Would you care to tell me how you are better informed and have a better grasp on the present state of the (US) economy than Krugman? Would you care to fill me in on why investing in a single gold miner stock in the midst of a robinhood fueled bubble is a good idea? I’m open to you or SA pointing out the reasons why you see ASR as a strong choice. No? Present your ideas or STHU.

All we get from you are drive by hacks at anyone who expresses centrist or even moderately leftist views. Lots of hot air. Lots of bark. Zero substance. 100% troll.

#77 Idiocy on 07.28.20 at 8:35 pm

to comment # 50 nonplused

Car / truck prices have risen as a function of cheap financing and longer payment schedules ( 72, 84, even 96 months) that allow vastly larger profit margins that the buyer demand now supports, particularly on trucks.

Ford was estimated to be making 10 to 12 times the margin on pick-up trucks than on sedans.
When they realized that they no longer had to have a full product line of offerings, they discontinued all but the Mustang and the Focus lines and make chiefly trucks and SUVs and the like.

That said, $ 103,000 after tax dollars for a personal use TRUCK is simply nuts.

#78 Juve101 on 07.28.20 at 8:39 pm

“If you’re a wuss, these are tough days.”

Garth this is exactly the problem in this day and age isn’t it. It used to be you could be a wuss and still make 4-5% risk free. No more. Got to play the game, but even with a 50/50 portfolio you may experience a 20% drop and your guts turning to water. And it doesn’t get easier the second time around.

#79 MF on 07.28.20 at 8:41 pm

56 Bill on 07.28.20 at 7:32

I’m aware of big tech and their stance. I’m also aware of the other side of the story and their stance too. I visit some American forums that lean conservative, and everything is some conspiracy to them it’s pathetic. This is notwithstanding the rampant, and often implied tribalism.

So I try not to subscribe to any philosophy, look at each issue independently, and be skeptical of all sources.

History has shown doctors can use their name for some very nepharious purposes. In this case I will listen to the overwhelming majority of health care practitioners and experts over this tiny group wearing white coats for effect.

The lockdown is a mess, yes, but one can also argue that without any government intervention the economy would have suffered worse.

The rest of your points (retired, businesses) are anecdotal and moot.

MF

#80 Bill on 07.28.20 at 8:43 pm

Sorry all of BC!
There were 175 deaths due to illicit drugs in June in BC, up from previous high of 171 in May. 731 deaths since January. Total BC Covid death? 189!
Yup KILL the economy….
Dumb A$$es far as I’m concerned

#43 Ace Goodheart on 07.28.20 at 7:09 pm
How many RESTAURANTs like “the new normal” ??? Many will never make it so you like high unemployment figures?? I guess the gov can pay them to sit at home for ever? That will will come in a form of increased taxes for you. And who’s going to pay the city’s all those mega millions in land taxes? They wont have enough for budgets.
I’ve got one commercial tenant likely to go under. Shes a whiner anyway anyway. My Tax bill for one of my properties in Courtenay is $50,000.00. It keeps people in a lively hood and the wheels greased. Who makes up for the shortfall of all the biz failures? They print money? Likely inflationary so your cost of living goes flying up? OR they raise taxes? Because the powers that be (idiots) couldn’t run a bubble gum stand.
Lord if we had normalized int rates everything would blow SKY HIGH…So its print away and pray.
So if you like to be a couch potato that’s your prerogative…You could move to a quiet place?
Best to all in these crazy times…

#81 Idiocy on 07.28.20 at 8:46 pm

to comment # 60 Garth’s response

No Garth, 22 years ago I and others thought Krugman was a charlatan and he has proven us right.

Easy to find a lot of idiotic predictions / ideas from this statist tool if you look.

Roubini, Schiller and Shiller, not so much.

#82 Sail Away on 07.28.20 at 8:51 pm

To Faron,

In your short time here, I have shown you a 30x return on Alpha Protech, a 20x return on Tesla, and a 4x return on Alacer.

I can unequivocally state that my interest in your analysis is… nil. You, on the other hand, could possibly learn a thing or two. Or stick with the hubris. That’s fine too.

#83 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.28.20 at 9:00 pm

#18 AM in MN
What’s different this time is that there is a significant move to the left going on politically in the western world, the opposite of the ’80s & ’90’s. It doesn’t bode well for wealth creation.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wrong. Everything is moving to the hard right; it’s just that over the last little while things appear to be to the opposite because the Left are being given enough rope to hang themselves, to use an old expression.

#84 Cto on 07.28.20 at 9:02 pm

BOC injecting billions $$$ to slam a wedge into housing prices.
I knew they would. There is nothing stopping these guys.

Garth, where do you think they will stop?
1 trillion???

Can you do us all a favor and do a deep dive into this?
There ar a lot of people that worked very hard in this country all there lives to retire and deserve as much…

Now the BOC is throwing them under the bus…
For what???? Housing speculators!

#85 DON on 07.28.20 at 9:10 pm

@ the Jaguar

My intuition is saying the same thing.

I have been silent lately…just observing and reading up on history as human nature repeats.

Now we here stories about the recovery stalling world wide.

The economy wasn’t firing on all cylinders prior the virus. In March hopism ran rampant and a vaccine would be available in 9 – 12 months. Hell they told us that if we locked down for 6 weeks it would be all over…the Spanish Flu was around for what 2-3 years all they had to do is google. The only good thing is that every gov is throwing money to researchers…too bad that doesn’t happen in the case of cancer and other critical illnesses

It is obvious that no one really knows where we will end up. i hope for the best though…what a nasty hang over if not.

#86 El presidente's happy pills on 07.28.20 at 9:11 pm

Have we finally crossed the rubicon of insanity

Trump’s new HCQ happy pills doctor is actually crazier than him…stunner….

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8569147/Trump-promotes-Dr-Stella-Immanuel-homophobic-doctor-preacher-uses-alien-DNA-cure.html

#87 the Jaguar on 07.28.20 at 9:35 pm

@ #83 DON on 07.28.20 at 9:10 pm
Wondered where you had got to……figured you were enjoying the good life on Van Isle.
I agree with you completely. One has the feeling “they”, the ones who shutdown the world, are in a ‘fix’ because they don’t know how to exit their doomsday scenario now that we are knee deep in it.
Link below is an interesting podcast with a British medical person who thinks the lockdown while well intentioned went too far. Worth a listen if you are inclined.
https://delingpole.podbean.com/e/dr-john-lee/

Not for you Telsa/Elon Musk devotees. Nothing to see or hear here, just move along and get back to your braggadocio……

#88 the Jaguar on 07.28.20 at 9:36 pm

….these aren’t the droids you’re looking for………

#89 Idiocy on 07.28.20 at 9:37 pm

to # 74 Far gone Faron

You have a reading comprehension problem dude.

I did not offer any economic opinions / assessments, let alone compare them with those of Krugman or anyone else.

I simply provided you with some names of well regarded economists that are worthy of consulting on economic matters.

In providing those names, I gave an opportunity to seek out other sources to provide a more balanced view on the economy.
So , again you are incorrect as I have in fact offered some value here, contrary to your asertations to the contrary.

And as far as me ‘hacking’ at the “centrist or moderately left” views here , I simply don’t agree with your definitions of those terms , nor those views being espoused because they are generally faulty in a myriad of ways and reflect limited knowledge.

As to investing in a single mining stock, I wasn’t offering an opinion / assessment there either.

But I don’t opine on investments in public forums to strangers who I know nothing about nor their investment goals nor risk appetite.
But I guess you do.

#90 Riada on 07.28.20 at 9:46 pm

With these piddly savings rates offered by CU & banks…put your emergency/rainy day fund where then when looking for quick access to funds, modest rate of return and low to moderate risk?

#91 Idiocy on 07.28.20 at 9:49 pm

to comment # 80 Sail Away

ASR was 5 X for me – I must give credit to the Contra The Heard guys for that though.

APT was also a pick of theirs and I got to it a bit late, but still profited.

GEO I didn’t buy, high yielders often don’t work out well.

Anything else you like right now ?

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.20 at 9:52 pm

@#78 Bill$$$$$
“I’ve got one commercial tenant likely to go under. Shes a whiner anyway anyway. My Tax bill for one of my properties in Courtenay is $50,000.00. ”

++++

Yep.

I’m watching the apartment building I live in.
LOADS of youngsters not paying rent and one fella I talked to in the underground parking lot as he worked on his car ( no job, CERB, car insurance cancelled, dead battery) while he smoked a joint….
“Yeah, I’m so far behind in my rent I’ll never catch up.
When the rules change I’m gonna skip out on the back rent and pull a midnight move…….”

I’m sure he aint the only one thinking that………

These people have zero money. Go ahead and sue.

#93 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.28.20 at 9:57 pm

#34 Coho on 07.28.20 at 6:14 pm

The anger/resentment to the one percenters is misdirected because by and large it is they that grow large businesses and employ people. It is the low profile 0.0001 percenters that pull the manipulative strings, however, they too, have their masters.

—–

… And don’t leave us hanging… Who are the Masters of the Universe?

#94 Faron on 07.28.20 at 10:01 pm

#80 Sail Away on 07.28.20 at 8:51 pm

I’m learning a ton. Just not from you.

Cheers

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.20 at 10:02 pm

@#84 El Presidente’s Happy Pills.

“Trump’s new HCQ happy pills doctor is actually crazier than him…stunner….”

++++

Well.

Who ever Trumps’ “Handlers” are………They have earned every penny of their salary.

The man is certifiable.

It’ll be interesting to see how bad his vitriol ramps up when he loses the Nov election. and has 3 months before he’s booted from office.

#96 baloney Sandwitch on 07.28.20 at 10:02 pm

Analysts estimate Pfizer will make 15 Billion next year from the Covid Vaccine. They are only charging US$35 a pop. Nice 3.8% dividend as well (beat GIC). I like it – take some risk, do good, save the world and make some dough.

#97 Doug in London on 07.28.20 at 10:07 pm

Was I overcome by fear? Yes, definitely! Fear had overcome me in mid March when I realized that if I didn’t act quickly to buy DIRT CHEAP stocks and equity ETFs quickly I would miss out on the Black Friday and Boxing Day colossal blowout fire sale. Am I ever glad now that, being the pansy I am, that I gave in and reacted to my fear.

#98 TomMac on 07.28.20 at 10:14 pm

Parking some funds in quality (P2)preferred rate resets with minimum floor reset will yield 5% dividend-tax advantaged. No risk with falling interest rates due yo floor and upside if they rise. They are volatile but in the end should be fine for us “wusses”.

#99 Sail Away on 07.28.20 at 10:24 pm

#89 Idiocy on 07.28.20 at 9:49 pm
to comment # 80 Sail Away

ASR was 5 X for me – I must give credit to the Contra The Heard guys for that though.

APT was also a pick of theirs and I got to it a bit late, but still profited.

GEO I didn’t buy, high yielders often don’t work out well.

Anything else you like right now ?

—————–

Small world- I know Phil MacKellar who works as an analyst for Benj Gallander, and also have some Contra picks scattered throughout. I rarely use stop losses, but do when taking one of their picks…

I actually only like preferreds and Berkshire right now but am stockpiling cash in PSA and keeping a close eye on the watchlist.

You?

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.28.20 at 10:26 pm

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.20 at 8:19 pm
@#55 Dr Freud

Ahhh, but what a case study Turner Nation would make if you cured him.
You’d be famous, books, lecture tours, possibly a Nobel Prize…..
Mein Gott Herr Doktor!
Dont delay.
And then there’s Ponzie…….
————–__
If Sigi were alive today and asked to analyze the mental state of many posters here, he would just shake his head and exclaim in Yiddish “Meschugge”

#101 Robert B on 07.28.20 at 10:29 pm

“””Yesterday we talked about the bullion-lickers who buy gold because they believe the world’s ending, we’ll turn into Argentina, or markets are rigged””””

I know your comment is for me…lol
I respect you so your lucky …lol

Did you like the projection by Goldman? $2300 US to start by the end of 2021 . Goldman is conservative…

Garth not bullion lickers but rather when gold moves by 20% the gold stocks move by much much more.
And most of us do not hold or lick gold but rather by the stocks ….Nice 5 and 10 baggers there…

#102 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.28.20 at 10:38 pm

#80 Sail Away on 07.28.20 at 8:51 pm
To Faron,

In your short time here, I have shown you a 30x return on Alpha Protech, a 20x return on Tesla, and a 4x return on Alacer.

I can unequivocally state that my interest in your analysis is… nil. You, on the other hand, could possibly learn a thing or two. Or stick with the hubris. That’s fine too.
——————
Congrats.
Good for you.
Unfortunately, this does not make up for your shortcomings as a “Mensch”.

#103 Faron on 07.28.20 at 10:40 pm

#89 Idiocy on 07.28.20 at 9:49 pm

Well, now we know you are living up to your screen-name by shelling out almost $60 a month to an outfit that promotes returns worse than the NASDAQ. Nice! You could have just bought QQQ and had more time for trolling and more money depending on your commissions and the effective MER from the newsletter. If they are so good at stock picking they wouldn’t need a sucker’s subscription service would they?

And I certainly don’t have the reading comp prob. I asked for analysis and ideas to defend your calling me out (for some mysterious reason) for posting a Krugman video that I stumbled across and found helpful. I’m asking either you or SA to defend yourselves, your picks, or your ideas with substance not past returns. I’ll respond to information. I love to learn. Bluster just pisses me off.

Oh, and SA, while I have you. I didn’t see a TSLA call at the March bottom. If it was there, that would be the first time I saw any of your picks. And from there to here isn’t 20x. Still a generous 3x. Plus, your TSLA 20x lifetime call was at the precise peak. I’ll concede that you’ll get there, maybe tomorrow again, but you ain’t there anymore. Facts matter.

#104 mikey on 07.28.20 at 10:44 pm

Nice fear mongering Garth, really bad advice but typical of rich people like you! Moved to New brunswick with 200K in savings and paid cash for my house. Live like a king and will get 2000 a month from gis, oas, and cpp when I turn 65. Of course you will always need more!

#105 Bill on 07.28.20 at 10:46 pm

#83 DON on 07.28.20 at 9:10 pm
The recovery is BS.
We had near zero growth prior this goofy pandemic.
I was 90% Cash before this hit. We were approaching a recession anyway. Covid put the cherry on top.
Heavy debt is a massive burden on growth of course.

#106 Faron on 07.28.20 at 10:49 pm

And here’s Krugman’s take on his 1998 error:

I must have tossed it off quickly (at the time I was mainly focused on the Asian financial crisis!), then later conflated it in my memory with the NYT piece. Anyway, I was clearly trying to be provocative, and got it wrong, which happens to all of us sometimes.

i.e. guy has way bigger fish to fry. But spoken like a true laureate.

#107 Bill on 07.28.20 at 10:56 pm

#84 El presidente’s happy pills on 07.28.20 at 9:11 pm
Really?
Maybe you will like Biden? People are clueless.
Are you a Doc or a Prez? Have you owned a large corporation? I have…Well I tell you this….his taxation policies gave that country a HUGE boost. LOWER TAXES AND WHAT HAPPPENS??? Everyone else is hell bent of raising…Ya your not a business person are you….?

#108 DON on 07.28.20 at 10:57 pm

@Jag

Recently met a friend of a friend from Alberta. Very nice lady. I asked her how the drive was from Alberta to the Island. She said she packed food and a cooler and drove directly to the Island to avoid harrassment by all the nutbars threatening fellow Canadians from coming to BC. Another young mother with a child had her lug nuts loosened on her car while traveling through the interior of BC…makes my blood boil.

#109 Ace Goodheart on 07.28.20 at 11:04 pm

#78 Bill on 07.28.20 at 8:43 pm

“That will will come in a form of increased taxes for you.”

////////////////////////////

Taxes on what?

My income is minimal.

What I do earn is tax sheltered in many ways.

Driving down the highway yesterday, I read a curious piece of graffiti art on a building:

“Your mad society is failing you!”

Yup.

When people tell me that all the nutty stuff that was going on, before COVID, has to go on, otherwise we can’t survive.

I just wonder.

If that is an economy, we are all better off without one.

#110 AACI Homedog on 07.28.20 at 11:08 pm

Senior care home REITS have been hammered through this crisis. Hopefully, to improve in the long term.

#111 Bill on 07.28.20 at 11:55 pm

#77 MF on 07.28.20 at 8:41 pm
Theres zero privacy thx to big tech.
Apps on your phone good god Tim Hortons!?
2 thumbs up on:
So I try not to subscribe to any philosophy, look at each issue independently, and be skeptical of all sources.

Im sceptical of everything… People getting raises…the gov no lost wages.
2009 was an easy call and i try to warn my family they lost their homes in the US. They didnt believe me when I was warning. Same this time…yup gov intervention great kicks the can down the road….the cans worn out bind markets are fake…next one may be it.
The gov has no idea what the hell their doing.

#112 Robert Ash on 07.29.20 at 12:31 am

I hope I am incorrect in my analysis, of future trends, and current emergency conditions, but I believe that the Fundamentals, of companies, their Earnings, and Profitability ultimately is impacted by Economic conditions. With most Modern Developed Economies, consumer based, and relying on Consumer Spending, how is potential future high Unemployment, going to influence consumer spending. Canada, has been moving to a Service Economy, and hobbling, our Old School, metrics, like the Dreaded Oil and Gas Energy Industries, and now we are faced with a significant impairment to the Service Sector and it’s supporting jobs. Does anyone think that Hotels, Retail, Tourism, Sports Venues, Restaurants, Office Towers, Malls, Small Business, are going to brush all this off, and viola, we are back to normal… The US Subprime housing market started to crash with 8-12% of Non Performing mortgages…. It only takes, two or three For Sale-By Bank Action, signs, in any market, to really impact the Housing Sector, but of course that isn’t oversold. So with all this uncertainty, what is so positive, about Risk Assets, going forward! We also have the Fixed Asset market decimated, and simple Historical Fundamentals, like the Counter Correlation, of Steady and Reasonable long term asset income is no longer a model… There is significant risk of Bond Interest rate changes, in the Bond Market, so how does, this affect the Model Balanced Portfolio…. I mention these issues, as a Student of Investing as I try to understand. It is not adding up, much to my regret. Finally in my experience as Assets can devalue, significantly, then Cash is pretty handy to scoop up some low or distressed assets, both Financial and Physical. If Deflation is a factor, then your $’s simply offer greater purchasing power. Once Credit is withdrawn, then Cash or Liquid assets are often the only vehicles, to well… make a deal.

#113 Bill on 07.29.20 at 12:32 am

@ #83 DON on 07.28.20 at 9:10 pm
Totally!
Just react and print and NEVER EVER admit you Fkd up. Thats your gov. Print pray and buy the voters. T2 never ending scandals…not smart enough to hide them.
2 Years ago a big bad renter figured their going to bail on me. Well they had no clue what Id do…”Oh he aint going to sue us”….not worth $60,000 in rent it will cost $50,000 for the suite. We had a cost of near $200,000 for costs all in to get the big T signed up…Telus. You know sink or swim for us. No Bombardier type bailout for us pea ons. We won and got our legals. It took 2 years.

T2…. “oh we down have the money to help out veterans” But now the green fire hose is turned on. Cause of this covid crap I’m asked to take a 25% hair cut in commercial rent and T2 throws in 50% of his freshly printed loonies my renter pays 25%!!!! Its a bloody joke. Good thing I only had one small renter ask.
Sand bag for the rainy day fools. Listen to Garth.
ANYONE that supports our gov policies can come talk to us….I can blow hole in all this crap.
The guys and IDIOT that’s T2. If you defend him you prolly getting a cheque from the biggest criminal org.
Oh…and we where never at risk of default. We don’t have any debt. Some should try it VS slavery. Always have a % of cash for when the poop hits the fan.
I haven’t been here for a while but there are some great views.

#114 Tim123 on 07.29.20 at 12:45 am

This was a good post. There are a lot of people who are scared to invest. I think it probably is because they do not understand investing. I was able to get 45% rate of return in 2019 (it helped that there was a correction in December 2018) so my returns were a bit larger than normal. It would be impossible for people investing in GICs to get those returns. I don’t imagine 2020 will be as good as 2019 but it will certainly be better than people solely investing in GICs. A tool that advanced investors can use are options to go either long or short with out risking huge amounts of money. Buying insurance via options is another strategy to use when volatility is low.

#115 Howard on 07.29.20 at 4:24 am

#37 SoggyShorts on 07.28.20 at 6:40 pm
#13 Howard on 07.28.20 at 4:27 pm

If people want to bet that the next 40 years will be just like the previous 40 years, then sure, the 60/40 portfolio is the best option. They definitely shouldn’t look at stock and bond performance in the 40 years previous to 1980
************************
I’ll bite, what was the average return for 1940-1980? Looks like 11%+ for the S&P 500(unless I’m misreading the charts?) , not sure about bonds though.

———————————————-

Bonds lost value in real terms (accounting for inflation) between 1940 and 1980, by some measures as much as 50%. Anyone holding 40-50% bonds in their portfolio during that time period would have done poorly.

The stock market did outperform inflation, as you noted, but not anywhere close to the performance of the 1980-2020 time period. And there were very long stretches in the 1940-1980 during which stocks underperformed inflation outright. From 1965 to 1979, the S&P underperformed inflation – 14 years of dead money in stocks. There was no such comparable period over the past 40 years.

#116 BillyBob on 07.29.20 at 5:10 am

#2 Sail Away on 07.28.20 at 3:58 pm

You had me at unbridled sex

=================================================

With all the bigotry and ugliness in the world these days it’s nice you can express your feelings for Garth so openly.

#117 maxx on 07.29.20 at 6:27 am

@ #22

Catastrophic. Check this out:

https://fortune.com/2020/06/18/coronavirus-cruises-carnival-losses/

The changes to tourism will turn a vacation into even more of an ordeal than it was pre-COVID.

I love cruising but won’t if the forecast changes such as short cruises only are the new norm. If I have to jump through umpteen hoops pre, during and post, it had better be a couple of months long or longer.

What a mangled mess.

#118 Sail Away on 07.29.20 at 7:04 am

#114 BillyBob on 07.29.20 at 5:10 am
#2 Sail Away on 07.28.20 at 3:58 pm

You had me at unbridled sex

—————-

With all the bigotry and ugliness in the world these days it’s nice you can express your feelings for Garth so openly

—————-

And there’s nothing wrong with that

#119 Idiocy on 07.29.20 at 7:34 am

to # 101 Far gone Faron

If you are referring to the “Contra The Heard” newsletter you should familiarize yourself with their investment philosophy ( buying deep value, often overlooked companies) and their returns over time ( 23 % / year over 15 years) before spouting off about them.
So they are very much a “value add” proposition.

The subscription has paid for itself about 100,000 times over of the modest total subscription cost.

The writers have columns in the Globe and Mail ocaisionally and appear on BNN – so I presume they are “value add” to others as well.

Like all good investors, I utilize of a variety of sources to generate investing ideas, not just them. But certainly not some guy named Faron flailing away in his hubris and ignorance on a free blog.

Agree with Sail Away on this one , “my interest in your analysis is … nil”.

Ah, did you just dis ‘a free blog’? The one you’re spending time on now? Feel free to pay me, if it makes you feel more wanted. – Garth

#120 Sail Away on 07.29.20 at 7:45 am

#101 Faron on 07.28.20 at 10:40 pm

Oh, and SA, while I have you. I didn’t see a TSLA call at the March bottom. If it was there, that would be the first time I saw any of your picks.

—————

Post #330 on March 24.

#121 Idiocy on 07.29.20 at 7:50 am

to comment # 97 Sail Away

1) Prefs, though concerned re any div tax treatment changes – floored resets like PPL.PF.A / T seem to be a steep discount to others like EMA’s.

2) PMs – rightly or wrongly have mostly exited, looking to possibly reload if there is a significant drawdown. They have to be making some good margins with gold above $ 1,500 for a while.

3) Biotechs – still have a few, some have been spectacular of late , now largely out though.

4) Energy – some small positions in select Cdn names

5 ) special situations / value like QTRH / T , ITP / T , APHA / T but modest positions

6) Cash – probably too much, waiting patiently

Please keep posting your ideas as you seem to have a good head for investing outside of the 60 / 40 and ETF mindset. I guess that is due to your entrepeneurial bent.

Unlike certain others here, I am open to more adventurous investment ideas.

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.29.20 at 8:27 am

@#98 Ponzie Prattle
“If Sigi were alive today and asked to analyze the mental state of many posters here, he would just shake his head and exclaim in Yiddish “Meschugge”
*******

I believe I saw “Putz” scrawled on your Siggy analysis file.

@#106 Don
“Another young mother with a child had her lug nuts loosened on her car while traveling through the interior of BC…makes my blood boil.”
++++
Sounds like a stupid kids prank gone bad.
Singular stories from a random few bad experiences + media hype.
I see endless cars with Alberta plates year round in the LowerBrainland…………. mostly workers here due to the years long recession in the oil patch.
No complaints from them other than the crappy BC drivers……

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.29.20 at 8:33 am

@#114 BillyBob
“With all the bigotry and ugliness in the world these days it’s nice you can express your feelings for Garth so openly.”

++++

I was just shocked that he was willing to go “unbridled”……

#124 Dharma Bum on 07.29.20 at 8:44 am

#48 Sail Away

Wow, I can’t even understand what people are writing about today

Maybe it’s because we started office brewskies at 3?
——————————————————————–

What’s a dinosaur?

Can I get one o’ them brewskies? Mmmmm…Labatt 50.

#125 Do we have all the facts on 07.29.20 at 8:52 am

Over the past 50 years the National Housing Act has undergone a series of tweaks designed to support all components of the Canadian housing market. The Government of Canada through CMHC has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the housing sector of the Canadian economy with amazing results.

The Canadian families that realized substantial tax exempt capital gains from home ownership over the past fifty years may not be aware that a substantial portion of their good fortune was a direct result of past investments made by the Government of Canada and each Provincial government.

One key move by the Government of Canada was the decision to guarantee the return on mortgage backed securities. This decision allowed financial institutions to offer a package residential mortgages to investors with a guaranteed rate of return. Recently both the Bank of Canada and CMHC increased their purchases of insured mortgage pools in an effort to stimulate growth of the Canadian economy with limited success.

Unfortunately the ability to stimulate the Canadian economy through support for the housing sector appears to have run its course. In spite of interest rates at an all time low the average housing price of $500,000 or more has placed home ownership beyond the reach of many potential first time homebuyers.

A clear sign that government stimulation of the housing sector of the Canadian economy may have run its course is the fact that monthly payments on over 720,000 mortgages representing over 15% of the $1.25 trillion in total mortgage debt in Canada are currently being deferred. This is not a sign of good health!

The Government of Canada has recognized that the housing sector of the Canadian economy has limited potential to stimulate growth of the Canadian economy in 2020 and beyond. The issue now is finding ways to increase employment and average disposable income to support an economy where 75% of GDP is driven by domestic consumption.

One obvious solution might be for the Government of Canada to guarantee investment in sectors of the Canadian economy that have the potential to create employment and taxation revenue. Guaranteed investment returns certainly worked for the housing sector so why not give other sectors of the economy the old college try?

Just a thought!

#126 Nottawa Housing Bust on 07.29.20 at 8:52 am

Hey Garth,

How about a blog post on the BoC buying spree. They are now purchasing MBS, which until I believe was not required until this point.

Which brings up a few interesting points:

1. If housing market is so strong why is the BoC buying these MBS? Shouldn’t their be an insatiable market for them.

2. If Banks are so well capitalized, why are they dumping these to the BoC?

3. How long can this go on. At some point a risk premium will be required ( especially if prices were to increases 20% you for 5 yrs). What then?

4. The scariest scenario to me. What if no one else BUT the BoC will purchase these? They will essentially be worthless then. Like owning a whole bunch of hockey pigs in 2020???

It’s time someone started digging into what is being purchased and why? All this seems like a covert bank bailout.

#127 Dharma Bum on 07.29.20 at 8:54 am

Paul Krugman…

Isn’t he the guy that played Oscar Madison on the Odd Couple TV series???

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEbd8fAZ4ws

No?

#128 Jenn on 07.29.20 at 9:01 am

Thank-you Garth for today’s post. It was direct, encouraging and your writing style is so darn fun to read. I have learned so much from you and look forward to your posts every morning with my cup of coffee.
I have been employed in software all through Covid and I still need to have a more positive lens on the markets. This post really reminded me to keep doing what I have been doing (continue investing in a balanced portfolio and sell winning funds when they become over weighted as I did last week). My flaw is that I don’t yet have a TFSA (everything is in RRSPS/LIRA) and I sure need to get that going. This post really got me thinking now is the time to act on that.

#129 cramar on 07.29.20 at 9:11 am

This trend in the U.S. is likely going to be the same in Canada.

Covid-19 is driving millennials out of cities and into first homes

Millennials are fleeing cities and waging bidding wars for suburban and even rural homes. It’s a big bet that the work-from-home lifestyle is here to stay.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2020/07/24/new-york-city-urban-exodus-housing-real-estate-suburb-connecticut-catskills-orig.cnn-business

#130 the Jaguar on 07.29.20 at 9:12 am

@#106 DON on 07.28.20 at 10:57 pm

The BC interior was settled by different folk than the prairies, and there are more or less two classes of people there. Those who have and those who have not. The big houses on the lakes and fancy cars are owned by people who came from elsewhere or live elsewhere and vacation there, including people from the lower mainland but also many from Alberta. If you are from Alberta you are targeted. This is not new. I was almost run off the road once for the sin of having Alberta plates. It’s a long simmering resentment despite many BC interior residents working in Alberta (especially construction trades) when times are good. Covid has only made this worse. I have been told the resentment of Albertans also exists in some areas of Van Island.
In Alberta almost everyone is from somewhere else because the common denominator is people come here for jobs. From all over the world. If you stopped 20 people on the street in Calgary you would be lucky to have one person tell you they were born in Alberta.
The financial contribution to BC interior from visitors from Alberta must have been measured at some point and I’m guessing is significant, but the small minded would rather ‘key cars’ with Alberta plates than think about that.
Here in Alberta we just want to work and improve our lot in life.

#131 the Jaguar on 07.29.20 at 9:24 am

@Don…..
Here an amusing article from 2011, so you can see the problem predates Covid..

https://www.kamloopsnews.ca/opinion/columnists/we-love-to-hate-albertans-don-t-we-1.1242499

#132 TurnerNation on 07.29.20 at 9:25 am

Gotta love the global agenda. It went from ‘2 weeks to flatten the curve guys!!’ now to ‘get a needle or you can’t get back to normal’. Look around, where are all the sick people, I’m out almost every day/night and all I see are healthy people trying to live their lives under the brutal New System.
How long can they keep this fear campaign going, we’re almost at month 5. Maybe we need another angle like more protests or an other Eternal Enemy from overseas, or what? How about an election cancel to rile people up.
Globalists, what you got planned for us?

#133 TurnerNation on 07.29.20 at 9:34 am

Live like your dog? YES wear a collar tax slave. Your neck will be yanked back hard if you step out of line.

Here is comes. The real reason of this global rollout.
Moving from Compliance phase into Tracking phase:

“TraceScan Wearables, Facedrive Health’s COVID-19 contact tracing wearable solution, is launching a pilot project with the partner of TraceScan, Labourers’ International Union of North America (LiUNA), in early August. Facedrive Health is a Facedrive Inc. subsidiary.

The pilot project will take place at a work site in Hamilton, ON, where every employee is assigned a dedicated wearable device for COVID-19 contact tracing. TraceSCAN has developed a custom deployment process to ensure that contact tracing is done completely independent of phone use. As part of the pilot setup, there is a designated station for employees to upload contact history through Bluetooth at the end of each work day. Facedrive Health will provide support in deploying the contact tracing solution, training staff and closely monitoring to ensure a successful adoption.”

#134 Andy on 07.29.20 at 9:35 am

#32 Bill :-)

More and more people are discovering our present day Einstein/Tesla/Socrates!

Fact Based News Reporting (whith a twist of AI) You Must Read! The Most Relevant Site for the awakened Investor!
And this site of course!

#135 Sam on 07.29.20 at 9:38 am

Documents how the economic situation is completely a-historical vis-a-vis interest rates. And THEN … then

> But a portfolio with a long-term return of 6% or 7% (

then tells people to rely on historical returns.

Self-awareness much?

Long-term performance doesn’t guarantee future returns. But history is a guide since, believe it or not, you’re not the person in history to live through volatile times. – Garth

#136 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.29.20 at 9:50 am

I like to read Faron’s screen name as Foron…

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.29.20 at 9:50 am

Only one more day until we get to watch Trudeau sittin’ on the hot seat ‘splainin his reasons for gifting $912 MILLION dollars to his mom’s and brother’s employers.

WE can do it!
Yes WE can!

Its a shame a Lawyer like Jody Wilson Raybould isnt there to ask the questions……….

#138 VicPaul on 07.29.20 at 10:30 am

#74 Faron on 07.28.20 at 8:33 pm
#67 Idiocy on 07.28.20 at 8:16 pm

to comment # 45 Far gone Faron

Man, you just don’t get it.
Paul Krugman article and then this nonsense?

You may not be as savvy as you think you are.

Remember ” … a little knowledge can be dangerous…”

Excuse me? Would you care to tell me how you are better informed and have a better grasp on the present state of the (US) economy than Krugman? Would you care to fill me in on why investing in a single gold miner stock in the midst of a robinhood fueled bubble is a good idea? I’m open to you or SA pointing out the reasons why you see ASR as a strong choice. No? Present your ideas or STHU.

All we get from you are drive by hacks at anyone who expresses centrist or even moderately leftist views. Lots of hot air. Lots of bark. Zero substance. 100% troll.

*********

…and there it is…the predictable weak-lefty response to being called out on their arrogant “Look at me, I’m the most virtuous/smartest/most compassionate” mirror-gazing…ad hominem attacks – I guess you’d get good at that if all you do is watch your heroes (lemon/Anderson/Maddow) for the last 3+ years.

Faron – try and recognize when your self-professed pedantic nature is getting away from you – as it does weekly.

We don’t need to hear your narrow-minded shite five times a day, everyday.

M56BC

#139 Bill on 07.29.20 at 10:33 am

#107 Ace Goodheart on 07.28.20 at 11:04 pm
Lol perfect. Thats the key low income if you can aford it.
I was happy to finally shut down my telecom company.
My tax rate is almost zero as I leave my rental in my company at a low corp rate running any expenses I can through. Cars fuel ect.
When one has low debt or zero in my case its amazing how little income you need. Personal tax rate zero. 3 yrs ago I was paying $$100,000 tax or more. Far as Im concerned the gov massively missmanage our tax dollars. Covid did some good things for us but I feel for others that were ill prepaired or live off the margin.

#140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.29.20 at 10:59 am

Hmmmm,

Could a well spoken, black woman be the surprise winner of the Con Leadership race???????

https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-leslyn-lewis-leadership-bid-kory-teneycke-1.5665584

Be great to see Trudeau stuttering, stumbling in a debate with Leslyn Lewis because ……its 2021…….

#141 Sail Away on 07.29.20 at 11:14 am

#119 Idiocy on 07.29.20 at 7:50 am
to comment # 97 Sail Away

1) Prefs, though concerned re any div tax treatment changes – floored resets like PPL.PF.A / T seem to be a steep discount to others like EMA’s.

2) PMs – rightly or wrongly have mostly exited, looking to possibly reload if there is a significant drawdown. They have to be making some good margins with gold above $ 1,500 for a while.

3) Biotechs – still have a few, some have been spectacular of late , now largely out though.

4) Energy – some small positions in select Cdn names

5 ) special situations / value like QTRH / T , ITP / T , APHA / T but modest positions

6) Cash – probably too much, waiting patiently

Please keep posting your ideas as you seem to have a good head for investing outside of the 60 / 40 and ETF mindset. I guess that is due to your entrepeneurial bent.

Unlike certain others here, I am open to more adventurous investment ideas.

—————–

Thanks!

Tax-loss selling should be exciting in the OG sector. I’m planning to vultch the spoils come December/January. That’s always Christmas 2.

#142 Faron on 07.29.20 at 11:17 am

#117 Idiocy on 07.29.20 at 7:34 am

to # 101 Far gone Faron

“Contra The Heard” …their returns over time ( 23 % / year over 15 years)

Pull your head out! They advertise 15.5% and 14.5% for returns over last year (and a deep negative for 2018 BTW). Given that they are probably all equity and contrarian, I’m going to guess that those gains/losses came with a ton of volatility. Not impressive given that 2019 was gangbusters and the same results could have been had by dumping funds in XBAL and taking a snooze. They then advertise their 10 year and 20 year returns. Their ten year is worse than the NASDAQ! Nice.

The subscription has paid for itself about 100,000 times over of the modest total subscription cost.

Yeah, you still made money, but you could have made more without the scrip and by owning a cheap ETF or three.

The writers have columns in the Globe and Mail ocaisionally[sic] and appear on BNN – so I presume they are “value add” to others as well.

That explains the “buy these five stonks…” headlined crap I get in my google news feed. Talking heads are a dime a dozen in financial media. How many of them are ever right? And you take jabs at Krugman who has probably done more good thinking on the toilet than you have in your life in-total. And done more educating than you would in 1000 lifetimes.

“my interest in your analysis is … nil”.

I couldn’t care less. And, you need to work on your understanding of context. I gave a 5 minute glance worth of “analysis” of a stock that SA — who to me is some random internet stranger — recommended to me out of the blue and with zero support. To try to get any hint as to why I should invest in ASR, I offered my take and requested his. I got crickets from him and irrelevant bashing from you.

As for investing philosophies, the most salient take I’ve seen is a distribution of fund managers’ returns relative to some index. They have good years, they have bad. The mean of the distribution lies at the fund returns. Very very very few beat the market. I’m not going to pay money for a scrip to return a net zero benefit.

Again, your guys, if they were crushing it in investing, wouldn’t need to charge for their advice. I’m sure they have found that the only real way to beat the market is to sell to people their “market beating strategies”. I put asset managers like Garth/Turner Investments in a totally different category BTW. They give financial advice and earn their keep by giving holistic, big picture advice and, probably most importantly, preventing people from doing stupid things (like arguing with a guy on the internet who calls himself Idiocy…). If I’m going to pay anyone for help with this or take anyone’s advice, it will be his or someone like him. In the mean time, shove it.

Have a good day.

#143 Ace Goodheart on 07.29.20 at 11:28 am

RE: #137 Bill on 07.29.20 at 10:33 am

#107 Ace Goodheart on 07.28.20 at 11:04 pm
Lol perfect. Thats the key low income if you can aford it.
I was happy to finally shut down my telecom company.
My tax rate is almost zero as I leave my rental in my company at a low corp rate running any expenses I can through. Cars fuel ect.
When one has low debt or zero in my case its amazing how little income you need. Personal tax rate zero. 3 yrs ago I was paying $$100,000 tax or more. Far as Im concerned the gov massively missmanage our tax dollars. Covid did some good things for us but I feel for others that were ill prepaired or live off the margin.

////////////////////////////////////////

This is so true.

When I got rid of our mortgage back in 2013, all of a sudden my main expenses each month are, not surprisingly, taxes.

Property tax, tax on fuel, carbon tax on everything. HST, excise tax, tax on beer (craft beers).

If you took away the taxes I could almost live for free.

My income now comes from dividends for the most part and much of that is sheltered in two TFSAs.

Dividends are great because I get the fat tax credit on them each year. So I initially pay about 20% tax on them, but then I get some of that refunded in the dividend tax credit.

If you do the math, on a $75,000 per year dividend income, I am actually paying a little under $2500.00 per year in income tax, after the dividend credit refund.

if I was working and earning $75,000 per year, I would be paying a little under $19,000.00 per year in income tax!

The difference is quite incredible for dividends.

That is what I mean when I say, my income is sheltered and minimal.

When you look at all the taxes including income tax and every other tax, probably someone who earns $75,000 per year as an employee, is paying more than 1/2 their income in various taxes.

#144 Cto on 07.29.20 at 11:36 am

Seems like there are a lot of dogs on this blog asking about the BOC covert buying spree of mortgages.
We want to know, because this can’t be good for savers, pensions, people that work hard and pay taxes.
WE SHOULD NOT BE SUPPORTING THE OVER LEVERGED.

You should do a blog on this…

#145 Ace Goodheart on 07.29.20 at 11:39 am

RE: #131 TurnerNation on 07.29.20 at 9:34 am

I’m trying to reconcile all this stuff we’re hearing about, with my daily life experience.

To date, the only thing I have ever been asked to do, in relation to COVID, is wear a mask indoors.

Which is fine with me. I wouldn’t go indoors without a mask right now anyway. I would feel unsafe.

The whole social distancing thing was a flop. We couldn’t do it in Toronto. Not enough room. They gave up on it and just said “everyone wear a mask” so now when I go out, I wear a mask.

Other than that, they shut down the all night party bars, so as I said in another post, the hedge rows on my street don’t smell like pee anymore.

It is very quiet on Friday and Saturday nights.

And I think that indoor restaurants are still closed (though they are reopening on Friday as Toronto is going into stage three of the reopening).

The rest of this virus stuff has been good for me. I like the enhanced sanitation. I like masks on everyone. I like that people actually care whether or not other people get sick.

And the total shut down of Toronto’s weekly drunken debauched Friday and Saturday nights, put on each week so a small group of politically connected people can make six figures per night off of badly managed, overcrowded and unsafe public watering holes, is just fine with me. That was the one thing I did not like about Toronto, the late night drinking establishments.

“Dancing” in one of these places just means pushing your way onto an alcohol soaked floor and being shoved around by a drunken mob and blasted with deafening music, as you try to survive in the intense heat, while people fall over on top of you and you are literally crushed half to death.

If those places are gone permanently, it could not have happened too soon.

#146 Faron on 07.29.20 at 11:41 am

#136 VicPaul on 07.29.20 at 10:30 am

*********

VicPaul, you are free to scroll past my posts as I generally do yours, TurnerNation’s and many others. I post under the same handle day in, day out.

Seems my failing yesterday was to post a link to a video that I stumbled across that seemed like a good assessment of the economy. I didn’t realize that that the wackos here take anything Krugman as a call to war. You guys are sensitive. Kind of reminds me of the cucumber trick you can play on cats. Google it for some funny videos. In short, place something innocent near a critter who is overly sensitive and they leap 5 feet into the air, crash around the house and make a rapid exit scene left.

#147 YouKnowWho on 07.29.20 at 12:04 pm

#131 TurnerNation

You can’t just throw the frog into boiling water TN.

You bring it up to boiling point slowly from a nice comfy level. If you’re really good with the potentiometer, you bring it up to just below boiling point, and HOLD!

#148 Westcdn on 07.29.20 at 12:10 pm

My father said he wasn’t afraid to send me into a minefield because I would come out alive – geez, thanks pop.

The investment hole that nearly swallowed me is getting smaller. The losses have stopped and I am getting decent daily gains with the occasional hiccup. Hopefully in a few months I will back to square. CHR is my biggest headache. It will be years before that puppy deliveries me more fish, if ever…

#149 Stan Brooks on 07.29.20 at 12:12 pm

Retiring in Canada is a dream.

People save 2 % of their income, only part of that goes to investments.

High spending rate and open credit spigot means high cost of living/wrongly called ‘high standard’.

CPP and OAS benefits are a joke. The taxes for CPP and income taxes subsidizing OAS are not a joke.

Having the cost of living increasing by 8-10 % yearly while laughable ‘pension indexing’ of 1 % is basically a theft that will become even more aggressive as the idiots in power (the ethically challenged french villa/sponsor my daughter horse face guy and fancy socks triple ethically challenged/speaking fees guy) start claiming that there is actually a ‘deflation’ and refuse to index pensions.

BTW the list of bullion lickers currently includes Jeff Gundlach, Stan Druckenmiller and as of lately Goldman Sacks.

Cheers,

#150 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 07.29.20 at 12:21 pm

Anyone have moribund Eastman Kodak (the developer of the first digital camera but too stupid to capitalize on it) up 1900% in 2 days on their 2020 bingo card?

Chapter 11 in 2012, but now Trump’s throwing them $765 mil to transform themselves into a pharmaceutical company. WTF?

#151 MF on 07.29.20 at 12:29 pm

#101 Faron on 07.28.20 at 10:40 pm

My man Faron taking out the trash today.

Some savage replies. Awesome.

MF

#152 BillyBob on 07.29.20 at 12:32 pm

#130 TurnerNation on 07.29.20 at 9:25 am
Gotta love the global agenda. It went from ‘2 weeks to flatten the curve guys!!’ now to ‘get a needle or you can’t get back to normal’. Look around, where are all the sick people, I’m out almost every day/night and all I see are healthy people trying to live their lives under the brutal New System.

=====================================

You have one perspective, that is for sure.

Went and got my first post-lockdown haircut today at my usual place in South London. (Didn’t even try to get in the first mad rush, the place is too popular). Chatting a bit with the young guy who trims the lid, asked how things were going. Lost his gran and an aunt to Covid-19. That darn conspiracy-driven flu eh?

He had your British counterpart in his chair at one point. When the guy started spewing his wise theories from YouTube or wherever and loud opinions of how “overblown it all is” my barber confided it was hard not to punch him in the face.

It’s so much safer to spout bullsh$t on the internet, isn’t it?

#153 Bill on 07.29.20 at 12:39 pm

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.29.20 at 9:50 am
+1
There should be no toarance for this crap. Like SNC “da I didnt know it was this bad” SNC banned from 90 countries.
Its no differrnt than robbing a bank…If I pulled ANY of this id be in jail for years.
My account missed declairing a T5 Div for only $5k. CRA cjarhed me $2500 penalty. I wrote the #@# holes and explained and Im NEVER late on corp tax personal Gst pst and land taxes! And thats was a grand total on about $300,000 a year..lit is too bad so sad for me…im done paying any major taxes. I shuttered most biz. I despise these crooks. Ive emailed both the finace minister and T2. Telling them to resign. Zero accountability or understanding what a trillion in debt will be. A down grade is coming for Canada means higher borrowing costs. Hell whats a billion amongst friends!!!? Leave me out of this mess….

#154 Faron on 07.29.20 at 12:42 pm

#118 Sail Away on 07.29.20 at 7:45 am

#101 Faron on 07.28.20 at 10:40 pm

Oh, and SA, while I have you. I didn’t see a TSLA call at the March bottom. If it was there, that would be the first time I saw any of your picks.

—————

Post #330 on March 24.

My bad. Noted.

#155 JB on 07.29.20 at 12:50 pm

#69 Victor V on 07.28.20 at 8:14 pm

Nearly 100 units hit the market in one Yorkville condo

https://trnto.com/100-units-hit-market-in-yorkville-condo
……………………………………………………………………
That’s the massive problem with CONDOS investors rent them and then dump them when the going gets tough! It really depreciates the value of the property.

#156 Bill on 07.29.20 at 12:54 pm

T2 = oops I did it again….
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/more-than-a-little-fishy/

#157 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.29.20 at 1:08 pm

#144 Foron whined on 07.29.20 at 11:41 am
#136 VicPaul on 07.29.20 at 10:30 am

*********
… … …. You guys are sensitive.

———-

Ha ha ha! Pot, meet Kettle. Off to the bench with you again, take MFer with you.

#158 Faron on 07.29.20 at 1:16 pm

I want to return to this because it’s psychologically interesting and quite telling:

#175 Sail Away on 07.28.20 at 1:10 pm

For Faron: as you are yet a neophyte investor, I’ll try to help you out. Add this to your dbag portfolio…

…You’re welcome.

So, you were doing some kind of stock analysis and were looking at your gold mining holdings and you actually thought of me? I would love to have been a fly on the inner wall of your cranium to have been able to hear that inner dialogue. And you thought of me to the extent that you carried that thought to the internet and posted it here? That tells me that I occupy an inordinate amount of space in that brain of yours which is strange, but maybe also common with the power of screens and the internet.

I can admit to having the same issue, maybe to a lesser degree and more because I’m actually curious to hear about your experiences sailing. Regardless, that space in your brain that my online persona takes up (and vice versa I will add) is completely wasted space. Utterly wasted space in a brain that we get to occupy for a brief human life span. Strange, no?

We would both be best served to scour out that crud in any way possible and replace it with something useful. Learn a musical instrument. Take up another language. Learn to knit. Who cares, just make it anything else and offline would be best.

I guess after a binge yesterday induced by @Idiocy, I’m having a moment of clarity.

Good day to you all here. I’ve already wasted far too much of Garth’s and my time today.

#159 jess on 07.29.20 at 1:44 pm

El presidente’s happy pills on 07.28.20 at 9:11 pm
and one of those white coats photo op was dr. gold!
the leader of that petition of 400 names for opening the economy + claimed covid is less harmful than the flu and that malaria drug was the cure! Using a study from 15 years ago that was using monkey cells in a petri dish
=======

HB6
Federal agents arrested on Tuesday Larry Householder, the Speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives, as well as several lobbyists, on charges that the group used $60 million of funds provided by the monopoly utility FirstEnergy Corp. in exchange for passing a law that bailed out that company’s nuclear and coal plants.

Ohioans may be thinking twice as the truth unravels with regard to the republican speaker of the house!
https://www.desmogblog.com/2020/07/26/firstenergy-scandal-latest-example-utility-corruption-deceit

#160 Re-Cowtown on 07.29.20 at 1:49 pm

I’m still bothered by the Hipster poster of a couple of days ago who said that TSLA was doing great because it’s high share price allowed it to borrow more money.

It kind of sounds like Penn West’s stab at success: Keep borrowing money until you can’t anymore and then go bankrupt.

I must be missing something but it bothers me that having math skills, business experience and accounting skills somehow disqualifies me from seeing Musk’s masterplan. To me, it kind of looks like Bernie Madoff’s masterplan, which looked like Nortel’s masterplan, which looked like Bre-X’s masterplan.

#161 Sail Away on 07.29.20 at 1:50 pm

#156 Faron on 07.29.20 at 1:16 pm

So, you were doing some kind of stock analysis and were looking at your gold mining holdings and you actually thought of me?

—————–

Yes, correct. And it wasn’t necessarily a call to arms.

You mentioned everybody was talking about gold, so I tried to point out that broad diversification across sectors, including gold, can be profitable.

As Garth noted regarding technical analysis: people move markets. And we know people buy PM at certain times… ergo: when the sector is out of favour, find a company with Buffett-esque qualities and hold, hold, hold until the sector is again in favour. I’m not recommending any purchase right now, and will be taking profits myself on ASR soon.

But the strategy is the point. Things happen slowly. When choosing contrarian, you might need to hold on for years and years, so it’s important the company have solid fundamentals- particularly little debt.

It’s a strategy. I have your best interests in mind, my friend. Patience good, reactionary bad.

#162 Bill on 07.29.20 at 2:06 pm

Thanks for the platform Garth!
Like I said in the above and this just out minutes ago.
Max Bernie gets it I get it…do you?! You should have gold in your portfolio but I would NOT buy it today as its had a HUGE run. I bought years ago.
T2 = scary…
Max says:
“The Trudeau Liberals recently announced that this year’s budget deficit will reach the astronomical sum of $343 billion. Where does the money come from?
It’s simple. The Bank of Canada is just printing it.
We’re going to pay for all this government debt one way of another.
If not with taxes, then through inflation.
Since March, central banks around the world have printed trillions of dollars, euros, yen and other currencies.
And they’ve driven interest rates down to zero.
This massive debasement of currencies is the single most destructive economic policy in the world today.
It allows governments to spend without limits; zombie companies to continue to waste resources even though they’re bankrupt.
It encourages everyone to borrow and spend even when they cannot afford it.
This week, the price of gold surpassed its all-time record high of 2011.
Investors are flocking to gold as the only real money and safe haven in this crazy world.
Nobody in Canada is talking about this.
The whole political, financial and media establishment is just blind to this reality.
What will Canada do if paper money collapses or if inflation speeds up?
What will Canada do if gold replaces the US dollar as the world’s reserve monetary asset?
We’re the only major country that has no gold reserve at all.
We need someone in Ottawa to raise these issues.

#163 Howard on 07.29.20 at 2:11 pm

#143 Ace Goodheart on 07.29.20 at 11:39 am

“Dancing” in one of these places just means pushing your way onto an alcohol soaked floor and being shoved around by a drunken mob and blasted with deafening music, as you try to survive in the intense heat, while people fall over on top of you and you are literally crushed half to death.

If those places are gone permanently, it could not have happened too soon.

————————————-

Ace, were you aged over 50 right out of the womb?

Seems like nightlife and partying is yet ANOTHER perk that Boomers wish to deny the young (that they themselves enjoyed to the fullest in the 70s and 80s). The list keeps getting longer.

#164 Sail Away on 07.29.20 at 2:14 pm

And I don’t have a 50′ sailboat, rather a bluewater 30-footer that’s easy to singlehand.

In 2014, a friend and I sailed to San Fran where the motor quit for the duration, then on to Hawaii, and I eventually singlehanded back to Ucluelet engineless. The night sail into spring Cove in dense fog following foghorn, bell buoy and whistle buoy on magnetic azimuth was… interesting. I had been becalmed about 50 mi offshore for two full days waiting for wind to get in. Caught and released many springs on buzz bomb 15-20′ deep in those two days (50 mi from shore, 3000′ of water- go figure!) and had a fairly agressive sea lion launch and hang out on the foredeck. Fabricated my own servo pendulum windvane for $100 in materials that still works like a charm after 10,000 plus miles now.

Anyway, this was a momentous trip from an investing standpoint since I took 6 unpaid months off from work and returned to a portfolio 30% higher… so realized then that investing can be a way of life.

#165 TurnerNation on 07.29.20 at 2:26 pm

#150 BillyBob your barber sounds like a violent, intolerant and unstable person.
By rights those two people should have infected hundreds, no thousands – this thing is so deadly right?
The fact you posted that here tells me you are weighing all of this in your mind. Good. Was losing your rights, livelihood worth it?
Look I accept my risks – any there are many – of stepping outside. A small handful would weep over me. A Martyr I will not be. If you chose to worship those, in this New System, so be it

#166 Sail Away on 07.29.20 at 2:33 pm

#158 Re-Cowtown on 07.29.20 at 1:49 pm

Re: Tesla

I must be missing something but it bothers me that having math skills, business experience and accounting skills somehow disqualifies me from seeing Musk’s masterplan.

—————–

Genius can be incomprehensible. Elon is 10 steps ahead at all times.

#167 Bill on 07.29.20 at 2:46 pm

#163 TurnerNation on 07.29.20 at 2:26 pm
+1!

#168 Faron on 07.29.20 at 2:50 pm

#159 Sail Away on 07.29.20 at 1:50 pm

Yes, correct. And it wasn’t necessarily a call to arms.

Thanks Sail Away and I really appreciate your constructive post. I actually didn’t take your pick of ASR as a call to arms despite my stridence until Idiocy piped.

I initially declined because, as I’ve said, when a stock pick comes out of the relative blue, I mostly ignore it. To use your horse to water analogy — if I were thirsty while walking along a sidewalk downtown and someone I don’t know and don’t trust walked up to me offering water from his cup, I would be highly skeptical. There’s a decent chance it actually would be just water in the cup. Most people in this world aren’t out to poison others. But, I’d be much more likely to drink of the water if I were given more information. Who is this person? What does the stuff smell like? Is there chewed up hot dog floating in the cup? etc. I gave you my reasoning because I actually wanted to up the information content from “no” to “no, and here’s why from my quick-glance point of view”. I did that hoping that you would do the same.

I rescind my claim that I’ve learned nothing from you. That was untrue. The importance of technical analysis being one of those things. As a person who uses statistics a lot and who has seen a lot of claims about timeseries that are just human confirmation bias, I’m very skeptical. But, you are right that the market moves to that bias and it’s foolish to think otherwise.

In the future, if you want to offer a stock pick to me (or anyone here) follow it up with reasoning rather than past performance. I don’t chase past results, but I will always be open to unbiased description of fundamentals. For stonks anyway. In all other instances, I’m just an emotional snowflake.

#169 UVIC ELEC on 07.29.20 at 2:52 pm

Exited WEED & MMEN.

Bought more BMO.

PBUG (Praise Be Unto Garth)

#170 Buford Wilson on 07.30.20 at 1:16 am

I hear that Harjit, not Chrystia, will take over at finance.