Are you sure?

The realtors are at it again. Listing low. Holding off on accepting offers. Stoking bidding wars and blind auctions in which the vendor (and her agent) hold every single card. And those CCs are back. That’s code on a listing cut for certified cheques which must accompany offers. The standard amount in Toronto is currently $100,000.

In other words, a house comes to market. You’re interested. You have to muster a hundred grand, pay for a certified cheque made out to the listing brokerage (and hope it doesn’t get lost), then staple it to an offer which is certainly for a greater amount than the sellers are asking. The offer goes on a pile with others, then the vendors go through them, in private.

You have no idea how many people you’re bidding against. You don’t know what money’s on the table. You can’t risk making an offer conditional upon anything, like an inspection or financing – since this is a competitive game. And if you’re really lucky your bid may be selected to be ‘sweetened’. Then you pony up every dollar you can and hope you squeak through as the ‘winner’ of a property which probably just set a record for the street. The next day you call the mortgage broker and pray to Dog you didn’t just commit to pay more than the appraised value. If you did, crisis.

That’s situation now. It’s insane. This is 2017 all over again. Briefly. Do not fall victim to it.

The reasons for FOMO during a pandemic – as weird as that sounds – have been documented here. Pent-up demand (there was no spring market) clashing with low inventory in an age of cheapo 2% mortgages. So sales have risen and prices plumped. And once again Canadians are demonstrating they have (a) no fear of debt and (b) no concept of risk. Plus, we’re a nation of financial illiterates. And the finance minister is a cheat. Oy.

Anyway, here’s some of what should keep house-lusty folks up at night.

Covid’s not done. Statistically, you probably won’t get sick. But your income might. The economy of North America took bold first steps to reopen after the pandemic hit in March, but much of that progress is now in doubt. Canada has an enviable virus scorecard, but the US is blowing it. Infections are rising – 70,000 more again yesterday, plus yet another day with over 1,100 people dying. About 40 states are affected. Trump had to call off his big party convention in Florida. Now 22% of Americans say they can’t make the next rent or mortgage payment. Over 12 million face eviction within four months. Fully a third did not make their July payments.

“You’d have to go back to the Great Depression to find the kind of numbers we’re looking at right now,” reported Bloomberg on Friday. “There’s almost no precedent for this, which is why it’s so scary.”

Yes, this is America, not Canada. But if Trump continues to blow the handling of the pandemic, thinking the world’s biggest economy can reopen before infections are found, traced and halted, the consequences will be global. The New York Times this week called on Congress to do a very un-American thing: impose a national moratorium on evictions and foreclosures, “and then to give people who have lost their jobs the money required for rent or mortgage payments.” Wow. Infections in the US took 100 days to hit a million, but just 16 days to rise from three to four million. Now UK prime minister says Covid will still be a pandemic 12 months from now, with a winter wave expected.

So what does this mean to someone bidding for a Toronto house in a blind auction, and paying an historic price?

Well, just everything. That’s all.

The CERB cash will run out. Ottawa does not have the financial capacity to finance eight million people through another wave of the virus. Our credit rate would be hit, forcing interest rates higher at the worst possible time, impacting bond yields and mortgage rates. Ouch. All those loan deferrals will also end. Maybe this autumn. Maybe Christmas. But an end is nigh as the banks cannot forego the interest on $180 billion in debt much longer. That means three-quarters of a million households will once again have to find monthly cash – not an easy thing if unemployment stays elevated all year. So, listings go up. A lot. This is a virtual certainty.

Did you hear the jobless numbers in the US have started to spike again? It’s the worst possible news for a president fighting a national health crisis, an economic decline and widespread social unrest. So, yes, count on a mess of volatility – with negative financial implications – between now and the end of 2020.

Finally, do people buying $2 million properties (the new entry point for ‘middle-class’ digs in Toronto or Vancouver) realize how small the universe of potential buyers may be in the future? Every year that ticks by, and every increase in housing costs, erodes it.

Toronto insolvency experts Fong & Partners estimate an income of between $168,000 and $195,000 is now required for a couple to afford one child, a car, a $1 million house (good luck finding that) and put enough away for a retirement income of $40,000 (which is quasi-poverty).

If this is the new ‘middle class’, it’s beyond the means of 90% of the Canadian population. The median family income in Toronto, StatsCan says, was $83,000 in 2017. CMHC estimates the average was $109,480, pre-Covid. Sure, there will always be wealthy folk. But enough of them to sustain an average detached house price of $1.4 million in Toronto or $1.5 million in Vancouver? Seems a stretch.

If you love risk, get your financial advice from mom or work for Re/Max, go ahead. Join a bidding war during a pandemic. Otherwise bide your time. We’re not there yet.

140 comments ↓

#1 Rick Fast on 07.24.20 at 3:33 pm

The GTA housing market will finally burst. Expect a 30 to 50 percent decline in the next 24 months. Real estate agents will be at the foodbank.

#2 Doug t on 07.24.20 at 3:34 pm

imagine if you will, an entire country so ignorant that the people willfully give billions of dollars in order to elect rich criminals to rule over their lives and steal more of their money –

Welcome to the Twilight Zone

#3 Sarah on 07.24.20 at 3:35 pm

This has nothing to do with finances or real estate, but just a suggestion. If you want to say “god” in the blog, go ahead and say it, what’s the point of saying it backwards?

#4 Chaddywack on 07.24.20 at 3:38 pm

Just don’t play the game.

As soon as I saw multiples or got asked to “sweeten” an offer I would walk away and be happy with how much house I get relative to the rent I pay.

#5 australian_numbers on 07.24.20 at 3:39 pm

This is how its always been in Australia, and its terrible. Back in 2008 I looked at an apartment in Sydney listed for 560K. While the realtor was showing me the garage, he smiled and said “The magic number is 615K” *wink wink. I didn’t place a bid, partly out of disgust. Guess what it sold for? 610K.

#6 TurnerNation on 07.24.20 at 3:44 pm

One thing’s certain, the cure for a ‘public health crisis’ is Communism being rolled out. Yup. Proven.

Score: Bankers 3. People O.

Back in April 5th I called it – this isn’t about being right it’s about seeing what’s going on then arming yourself with knowledge, as today’s blog states.

-#95 TurnerNation on 04.05.20 at 3:02 pm
The numbers on the tele-screen are prescripted and desired to get the following reaction.
Sports have been ended this is all the masses have.

Live-Dead-Recovered. Win-Lose-Tie.

The reaction? Iran just applied for IMF loans. That’s the long game.
One you see the numbers as being a tool and focus on the long game it all makes sense. Our tele-screens rule our lives and freedom now. Our elites are scolding us for playing outside in the sun. Thus, the numbers must be increased, and the lock down continues.

#7 Skeptic on 07.24.20 at 3:45 pm

As much of a problem house prices are, I don’t think they’re going anywhere but up.
Our boy Tiff came out and asked all Canadian households to snort even higher levels of cheap debt during the worst pandemic. And that’s exactly what people are doing.
The government has supported households and house prices in this pandemic – there’s no reason to think they will stop doing this in the future.
A decline in housing prices can snowball into a wave of insolvencies as everyone is stretched to the hilt. It’s in the best interest of the government to keep house prices afloat.
What do you say Garth?

#8 Timmy on 07.24.20 at 3:46 pm

When is Morneau going to do the right thing and resign?

#9 Dave on 07.24.20 at 3:48 pm

“Toronto insolvency experts Fong & Partners estimate an income of between $168,000 and $195,000 is now required for a couple to afford one child, a car, a $1 million house (good luck finding that) and put enough away for a retirement income of $40,000 (which is quasi-poverty).”

40K is quasi poverty? Maybe for a family of four but as a single I’ve lived on about 45K for years and I’ve been to Europe 6 times and golf regularly in the summer.

You live in a culvert, right? Certainly not in Toronto. – Garth

#10 James on 07.24.20 at 3:50 pm

What happened to 3x gross annual household for measuring mortgage prudence?

#11 Dave on 07.24.20 at 3:53 pm

“Sure, there will always be wealthy folk. But enough of them to sustain an average detached house price of $1.4 million in Toronto or $1.5 million in Vancouver? Seems a stretch”

Hmmm, do you think it just might have something to do with those offshore folks parking their money in Canada? I know you continually deny this but what other signs would make you change your mind?

Statistics. There are none to support that thesis. Just prejudice and urban myth. – Garth

#12 bob on 07.24.20 at 3:53 pm

What’s your opinion about the 300K Hong Kong Canadians who may be coming back to Canada?

Assuming an average family of four, and only 10% come here, that’s still 300K / 4 / 10 = 750 house purchases in the next year… and probably in GVA and GTA.

Is that enough demand, both pent up and external to get us to a vaccine and economic recovery?

#13 Ejy on 07.24.20 at 3:56 pm

Sage advice; I need to buy but can continue waiting for about a year and will have to see what the pandemic brings, as Canada has not really even been hit with a first wave. I imagine what will happen over the next 12-18 months will be continued backing up and going forward a little (no open borders likely anytime soon), just to back up, until herd immunity occurs, which, even if a vaccine becomes available in early 2021 will take many months to accomplish, maybe over a year. Several billion vaccines cannot be procured without significant time and resources. Just try getting some pool floaties (or even a pool) now–they are taking orders for 2021 late summer delivery.

#14 Lambchop on 07.24.20 at 3:56 pm

#10 James on 07.24.20 at 3:50 pm
What happened to 3x gross annual household for measuring mortgage prudence?

_________

Hahahaha prudence!
You’re funny!

#15 FreeBird on 07.24.20 at 3:56 pm

This is disturbing. Not really surprising given US medical system? Wonder if or how it’s effecting how cases are reported.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/medicare-hospitals-covid-patients/

#16 Nita Graves on 07.24.20 at 3:56 pm

For someone who routinely eschews panic, is today’s
blog just a bit panicky?

Hardly. Fact-based. Feel free to dispute any. – Garth

#17 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.24.20 at 4:00 pm

#143 Km on 07.23.20 at 9:58 pm
Perfect. Planning on being in Nova Scotia by next fall and will be out priced there too. Seems the housing bubble of Canada will never end.
—————
You may wanna reconsider.
50 acres in the hinterland may sound idyllic, until the Neo-Nazis, the Religious and the Satanic Cults become your neighbors.
And then, there really goes the neigbourhood.
But, I recon, some blog dogs here would just jump over the fence and join.
Would fit right in.

#18 binky barnes on 07.24.20 at 4:03 pm

Thanks for your continued words of wisdom and reason, Garth. I hope you–and all the bog dogs–enjoy the weekend.

BB

#19 binky barnes on 07.24.20 at 4:04 pm

Argh…..”blog” not “bog”.

Bog was good. – Garth

#20 Russ on 07.24.20 at 4:04 pm

Sarah on 07.24.20 at 3:35 pm
This has nothing to do with finances or real estate, but just a suggestion. If you want to say “god” in the blog, go ahead and say it, what’s the point of saying it backwards?
==================

Hi Sarah,

No real point in it other than this is a dogdamn Dog Blog which also discusses real estate, economic & political positions and occasionally car maintenance (brakes mostly).

Cheers, R

#21 Golden Trudeau on 07.24.20 at 4:05 pm

There are no good jobs, yet house prices are in a bidding wars?

#22 Linda on 07.24.20 at 4:08 pm

Have to agree with Dave here. $40K in retirement – I’m presuming this would be annual income for a single retiree, not all that was saved for it – isn’t quasi-poverty. Yes, we all know that house prices in the GTA & YVR regions are beyond reason, but despite the GTA is the centre of the universe meme there are many, many locales where housing prices are – reasonable, that is. Further, it is to be hoped that the retiree will not enter retirement with a steaming pile of debt plus mortgage. If they do, then I’d agree $40K would be a stretch. Otherwise, they should be able to live very well indeed. No culvert required:)

The 40k is (in the example given) for a couple in the GTA. As stated, quasi-poverty. Why would you choose it? – Garth

#23 Blair on 07.24.20 at 4:10 pm

I wonder why $40K was chosen for the retirement income.

#24 Heather on 07.24.20 at 4:11 pm

I find this all so mind boggling. I couldn’t understand how people afforded real estate before the pandemic never mind now. The media makes out that there are thousands and thousands just drooling to get their hands on a property. And I’m wondering where do they get the money. There’s a lot of costs in the process and I think a lot of people are just awful at money management. The down payment takes a long time to save. From what I understand just qualifying requires all your ducks in a row.

#25 3s on 07.24.20 at 4:16 pm

To the contrary, with each person overpaying and loading up on risk the chances of turning off the taps becomes even less, or they would have long ago. Even the person in the street understands too big to fail and systemically important now ;)

#26 Damifino on 07.24.20 at 4:17 pm

#3 Sarah

If you want to say “god” in the blog, go ahead and say it, what’s the point of saying it backwards?
——————————–

Because it’s kind of funny and it pays homage to those grey wolf descendants now deified here.

Old timers will remember when far fewer canine photos graced the top of this blog. On any given day, someone usually found a reason to be righteously indignant.

Experience showed, I believe, that very few complained about dogs. So… dogs it was. There’s already enough moaning here about everything else under the sun.

#27 Ace Goodheart on 07.24.20 at 4:22 pm

With all the silly nonsense that TREB went through to try to stop people from knowing a bit more about home listings, a person would think that the market for buying and selling homes would be a bit more regulated.

There is really nothing, at all, in terms of rules.

The Agent just makes it all up.

I was out this week looking at a house (that I did not want to buy) so I could do a bit of investigative reporting on how houses in “prime” neighbourhoods are being sold.

We brought the baby, the wife. We dressed up. We tried to look desperate. Told them we were staying with family. Our “backstory” included a large cash deposit from a home we had recently sold, a baby on the way (wife did an amazing job looking pregnant – she is not) and our two year old son in my arms.

So, here is how it went: The house is a piece of garbage. We knew that when we went to see it. Needs extensive renos, built in the 30s, no insulation, wiring is junk, weird Central AC system that lives in the attic (which is not a good place for an AC evaporator, as the attic is basically a sauna in the summertime). Dodgy renos everywhere. Doors made into windows. Windows made into doors. A room in the basement that is two steps higher than the rest of the basement. Bathrooms in the middle of rooms, for no reasons that anyone can fathom.

What a mess of a house.

They had 198 showings over the course of a week. The kitchen counter was overflowing with realtor cards.

So I start talking to the agent. I am like, we own another two houses (that is actually not a lie, but anyway) and we will be selling them. Want to put that in as a condition. Have a bunch of cash in the bank. Don’t need a mortgage. I am trying to warm this dude up.

He is not interested. Can you believe it? A cash buyer for cripes sake? The guy says, you have to make an offer with no conditions. If you need to sell two properties, just extend the closing date.

And if the two properties don’t sell? Then what? Go to Court and explain to a judge why I am a complete idiot?

He then tells us, we can use him as our buyer’s agent, and it will “save” us 2.5%, because then we can reduce our offer by that amount. If we use a buyer’s agent, then we have to add 2.5% to the final purchase amount.

That is illegal! They can’t do that. The seller pays the commission, not the buyer. But they are doing it.

Then we say, you know, this house is pretty dodgy. We want to send in a home inspector.

Nope. Not allowed. No inspections.

But they are selling it as a liveable property. They are not selling it “As is”.

Do they know, that if you don’t allow an inspection, you are screwing over your seller client? Because the house then has to be perfect, or if it isn’t, the buyer can sue the seller for any defect? The inspection protects the SELLER, not the BUYER.

These people are nuts.

So finally we say, OK, that is fine. I will make a cash offer. How much do you think will be enough? I am told, well, we can’t tell you what the sellers are looking for, but if you give me a number I’ll tell you if you are close. So I throw out some numbers. The higher I go, the happier he gets.

So I am like, OK, I am interested. How do I purchase this house?

I am told, well, you can’t right now. They will be doing a second showing for everyone who is very interested, and then they will be holding an “offer night” where you show up with your 100K certified cheque, and your best offer, unconditional, and you wait in your car for the sellers to review everything and select the person they want to sell to.

That is what is happening right now in Toronto.

What we need is regulation. There should be a regulated method for selling a house. That method should include rules about unconditional offers being made by people who are being told that they CANNOT make conditional offers (which is a load of crap, yes you can).

There should be a rule that an Agent cannot try to make a buyer pay the seller’s commission (or use the seller’s Agent, thus putting the buyer at risk, in order to get a 2.5% discount on the purchase price).

This stuff is just so incredibly dodgy and it just keeps happening.

Six months from now the Courts (if they ever reopen) will be full of these home sales as lawsuits for various reasons.

This profession needs regulation.

#28 Geoffrey Laudat on 07.24.20 at 4:22 pm

The content of your articles are really hitting home, very realistic in your outlook. The writing is on the wall and at every opportunity you have been sounding the alarms, only time will tell how many have listened and acted accordingly.

#29 Dave on 07.24.20 at 4:22 pm

Bill Monreau comes from one of the richest family dynasties in Canada…beyond wealthy.

He purposely shafted the tax payers over $42,000 for BS expenses.

What is a persons mindset when they do actions like this??? The rich stay rich by raping and piliging the poor. Keep the masses buried in debt so that the elite can continue their influence for generations to come. How much hate/evil do you have to have in your heart towards your fellow Canadians to do this?

Both Trudeau and Monreau should be going to trial for fraud i.e. for this and WE. God knows whats else is hidden

#30 Sara on 07.24.20 at 4:23 pm

#3 Sarah

Because this is a dog blog not a god blog.

#31 Leftover on 07.24.20 at 4:25 pm

I don’t live in the GTA and can’t begin to understand why people would behave that way.

In the small thriving city where I live here’s what’s happening – cheaper houses, under $700k, are selling right away, usually for asking price and with multiple bids. “Luxury” houses (>$1.2 million in this market) are a dead zone and listings are piling up, having increased more than 60% since April.

While the realtors are as breathless as ever, the truth is that people don’t have enough money to buy more expensive properties so they’re buying what they can get financing for. The banks have definitely put the brakes on large mortgages and are closely scrutinizing qualifying income.

Maybe there’s existing equity in Vancouver and Toronto that keeps prices up, but Garth’s comment about the small universe of potential $2 million home-buyers is true and that cohort is getting smaller by the day.

#32 not 1st on 07.24.20 at 4:30 pm

So FIRE, Construction and oil make up the bulk of Canadas GDP.

I would say Toronto housing is the least of our concerns.

You are staring square in the face of possibly 500B of our GDP vanishing for a number of years. All for the same deaths that the regular flue brings.

Good one Justin.

Hope the millennials enjoy their macbooks, they will be playing on them for a long time.

#33 Dolce Vita on 07.24.20 at 4:31 pm

It’s not just America that will/is in economic difficulty Garth. It’s all over the World.

Exports account for about 32% of Cdn GDP. May 2019 exports were US $52.5 billion, in May 2020 they were US $34.6 billion, a 34% drop. Ends up in fewer firms exporting.

I wonder if these firms that are no longer exporting are still even in business?

StatCan on Export Firms (y/y May 2020 vs. May 2019):

1. There were 17,576 goods-exporting enterprises, 21.2% less.

2. By Province (79% of the total decline): Ontario (-2,283), Quebec (-1,184) and British Columbia (-687).

3. Decline of Cdn. export firms by destination: United States (-3,833), United Kingdom (-413), France (-290), Germany (-262), China (-263), India (-240) and Japan (-187).

4. Decline of export firms by GDP Sector: Manufacturing (-1,676 firms), Wholesale Trade (-1,335) and Retail Trade (-553).

Yet another hole to dig out from under.

—————————-

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200723/dq200723b-eng.htm?HPA=1

—————————-

PS: doing my singular, miniscule part here in Italia to boost Cdn exports by an iota of an iota.

When I go to the supermarket (gowned up like ICU personnel) if I find anything Canadian, I BUY IT. Lots of Maple Syrup and Farina [flour] Manitoba at my place.

[they grow soft, lower protein flour in Italia, so when you need the extra protein punch, like for panettone, Italians buy Farina Manitoba from Canada, also good for home made bread slow leavened – they prefer high protein Red Spring Wheat from Manitoba…who knew?]

In case you don’t believe me, this is the exact brand I have sitting at home in my kitchen cupboard (Spadoni is the best Italian flour brand unless its for pizza, then you must buy Caputo [Farina Caputo blu Pizzeria], the latter NOT NEGOTIABLE, an affront to all of Italia if you use any other flour brand…an ITALIAN DIES when you use Robin Hood et. al. for making pizza dough and not Caputo):

https://i.imgur.com/p1Z3PIm.jpg

Oh ya, the other liquid gold stuff from La Belle Province (same exact brand also in my kitchen cupboard – I think they ship the best stuff to Italia, so yummy):

https://i.imgur.com/cZOtK8X.jpg

#34 FreeBird on 07.24.20 at 4:37 pm

“…put enough away for a retirement income of $40,000 (which is quasi-poverty).”

————-
Income tax on $40K is ~$9K so net ~$36K or ~$3K per month. Given cost of living in Toronto (or Vancouver) this isn’t much. When you add other/unexpected costs like health care, dental, car repairs or replacement, and child care ($1,400-$2,000 per mth – not cheap) etc. Possible and people do it if no choice but it would be tight maybe very.

https://simpletax.ca/calculator

#35 Sail Away on 07.24.20 at 4:37 pm

#19 binky barnes on 07.24.20 at 4:04 pm

Argh…..”blog” not “bog”.

“Bog was good. – Garth”

—————-

Speaking of bogs…

Man, the fun we used to have as kids during spring melt. The swamps would fill up to the brim and we spent hours upon hours, days really, building buoyancy-challenged rafts and rafting through the slop and slush and mud.

Kids, dogs, fires, swimming… Pure independence, no adults. And nobody died although Jon the coddled kid always seemed to hurt himself and stomp home bawling. 35 years later that’s my strongest memory of him. Wonder what he’s doing now?

‘Raft Away’ or ‘Poler’ also good blog names.

#36 Piano_Man87 on 07.24.20 at 4:39 pm

This week on house hunters, Toronto edition:

Husband: I’m a freelance hamster trainer
Wife: I tune harmonicas part time

Their budget: $1.5 Million

#37 tccontrarian on 07.24.20 at 4:41 pm

“And the finance minister is a cheat. Oy.” – GT

OY!!
I hope you have a good laywer Garth. The finance guy may not like the term ‘cheat’ (although I have little doubt you’re right).

tcc

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.24.20 at 4:43 pm

@#3 Sarah
“If you want to say “god” in the blog, go ahead and say it, what’s the point of saying it backwards?”
++++

He doesnt want to burn in LLEH?

#39 Marco on 07.24.20 at 4:46 pm

I never heard of bidding wars in Montreal. Turdonto is excess, it is disgusting example of terrible urban planning, less than average architecture and sewer of human intellectuality. In second largest country in the world to have Turdonto density tells a story of fall of us all. Only brilliant achievement in Turdonto is Toronto Public Library system and how long this will survive in environment like that?

#40 SeeB on 07.24.20 at 4:46 pm

Thank you for the great article today Garth! It was frank and direct but also perfectly objective.

It’s nauseating looking at that stat of how much it costs to be “middle-class” in Van/Tor, and it feels overwhelming to think how bad “income inequality” is in our country. But I also agree that going after small businesses, doctors, and other professionals who provide valuable societal services is wrong.

Basically, a societal income graph should have an ascending trend relative to the value that individual provides, but right now it looks like a severe asymptote rather than just a bent line.

What do we do? How do we proportionally reward leaders and innovators without stripping the cupboards bare for everyone else?

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.24.20 at 4:48 pm

@#17 Ponzie Pilot
Hmmm you seem to have a nose for ferreting out zee Germans.

Ok.

Here’s another Halifax Examiner story that blows the lid off the RCMP and the N.S. mass shooting.

https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/an-epic-failure-the-first-duty-of-police-is-to-preserve-life-through-the-nova-scotia-massacre-the-rcmp-saved-no-one/

An un….be….lievable story .

I understand now why Ottawa doesnt want a PUBLIC inquiry………

#42 SeeB on 07.24.20 at 4:49 pm

#22 Linda on 07.24.20 at 4:08 pm

Have to agree with Dave here. $40K in retirement – I’m presuming this would be annual income for a single retiree, not all that was saved for it – isn’t quasi-poverty.

—————————————————————–

Are you aware of any decent rentals within an hour and a half drive of the Van/Tor downtown cores that you could afford on $40K per year? Please let me know.

#43 Faron on 07.24.20 at 4:51 pm

Hmmm. You know when asset prices experiencing a bubble make that one, last steep climb that is so easy to pick out in hindsight? I wonder if this is that moment in detached RE?

Our Realtor in Vic, or the MLS autobot anyway, is sending out new listings at an alarming clip. The market seems to be starting to respond to the demand with supply — bigly. We’ll listen to the Realtor’s tone. If he starts to sound a bit clingy, we’ll know that’s the time to start lowballing.

Meanwhile equities are finally, maybe seeing things a bit more clearly. The robinhood crowd flooded in while the 10yr bond yield kept on dropping. Which of those pools is the smart money? Boring bonds or the shiny tappa tappas? Meanwhile, a rotation into “value” sees BRK.B up nicely of late as well as ETFs that avoid the FATNAGs.

More stuff if you wan to crassly laugh at the stock market:

thestonkmarket

#44 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 07.24.20 at 4:52 pm

So stay in the GTA and lust over your stupid real estate bubble this weekend. But don’t come up here.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#45 Wait There on 07.24.20 at 4:53 pm

Just realized that most of Canada started reopening weeks after the USA. When their numbers started to rise again, weeks ago we were so proud that we were wise, our number slow and they USA were stupid. Smug as heck we were.

Except…..our curve appears to begin an ascent as well. Were we too smug too early?

#46 Yukon Elvis on 07.24.20 at 4:53 pm

A retired debt free single with no rent or mortgage payments could live quite well in the Okanagan on 40k. I know quite a few. Travel a bit, ski, golf, fish, dine out etc…….far from semi poverty.Who would want to retire in Toronto anyway? (Gag!)

#47 Stone on 07.24.20 at 4:54 pm

#10 James on 07.24.20 at 3:50 pm
What happened to 3x gross annual household for measuring mortgage prudence?

———

Don’t worry. It’s coming back. It’s just people haven’t been made to suffer enough yet. When enough pain occurs, 3x household income will be the high-water mark.

In the meantime, I enjoy my landlord subsidizing my housing costs.

#48 Dolce Vita on 07.24.20 at 4:55 pm

REALLY Off topic:

Make your own pasta at home. Buy Italian flour (Spadoni the bet) at some local Italian store (recall it is softer flour, lower protein, ideal = 10%). Easy recipe, how we do it in Italia (pay not attention to Cdn or American cooking shows, they know nothing about La Cucina Italiana):

100 g Italian flour
1 medium egg

I just mix it quickly, usually 300 g + 3 eggs at a time in my food processor until it has a pea meal consistency. Spatula it out, form a flat square, wrap in saran, refrigerate for 20 min minimum (easier to roll out when slightly cold and lets the egg infiltrate the flour nicely).

If you like the”al dente” pasta in Italia, then you must use Italian flour. If you use Canadian flour (usually 13% protein) you can boil it for 1 hr and it will still be like chewing gum. Italian flour made pasta will boil “al dente” in 3 to 4 minutes, tops.

And please, use farm fresh eggs not some genetically engineered eggs where they inject all kinds of crap into them where the yolk looks a pale yellow, an orange yolk is how nature intended them to look and how they are here in Italia (no mass produced egg laying farms in Italia, Italians would not buy them).

Italians not obsessed if the eggs have Omega whatever, they care instead that they are from red hens, best for eggs like in pasta, and the eggs fresh and laid on the ground (i.e., the hens are free to roam around, not in cages and nest an egg on the ground):

https://i.imgur.com/Wp8tsQm.jpg

#49 Cto on 07.24.20 at 4:56 pm

after over a decade of proof, non or these facts mean anything anymore. If you are a debt junkie, don’t worry the governments got your back…

#50 april on 07.24.20 at 4:59 pm

According to Ross Kay what alot of you believe re realestate right now it’s not happening. A few foolish people may get involved in bids -conned by realtors – but the smart people are holding off. As Garth has said… this is brief….many will have awful regrets in a short time from now.

#51 Faron on 07.24.20 at 5:05 pm

#17 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.24.20 at 4:00 pm

“…until the Neo-Nazis, the Religious and the Satanic Cults become your neighbors.”

Simple, just don’t move to Idaho.

Thee is a a much less extreme take on that, maybe more relevant in the states where the political divide lines right up with the urban/rural divide. There may be some dilution of redness in the rural areas as all that blue diffuses out into the hinterlands.

Of course, the lefties will self-select to the towns with the most brewery/yoga-ey/multisporty/black lab friendly places. But there will be demographic shifts associated with a flight back to the land. Ah, the 70s all over again and maybe will the same levels of stagflation as 50 years ago?

#52 Paul on 07.24.20 at 5:06 pm

#1 Rick Fast on 07.24.20 at 3:33 pm
The GTA housing market will finally burst. Expect a 30 to 50 percent decline in the next 24 months. Real estate agents will be at the foodbank.
“““““““““““““““““““““““
Correction Some Agents, If you get in line first save me a spot>

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.24.20 at 5:08 pm

Today’s photo is a great one.

#54 Midnights on 07.24.20 at 5:08 pm

Trudeau strains to contain political scandal engulfing his family
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/24/trudeau-political-scandal-family-381002

#55 Cto on 07.24.20 at 5:11 pm

I’m starting to hear about Canadian Bank bail-ins….
No problem!!!! There are still people with actual money saved in Canada land! There is actually cash out there somewhere….
Go get it!

No major bank in Canada will fail in our lifetime, or that of your grandchildren. If it happened, we have far bigger things to worry about. – Garth

#56 KenR on 07.24.20 at 5:15 pm

@29 Dave.
They were elected, by the taxpayers. If you want to see the problem with this nation, people need to look in the mirror.

#57 Dolce Vita on 07.24.20 at 5:15 pm

I think you have it Garth on RE for the reasons you state.

Once the carpet is pulled out from under CERB and mortgage deferrals then the true state of Cdn household finances will reveal themselves.

With an unemployment rate of +13% that will probably stay at about 10% until the end of the year…well, you need only go back to the early 80’s to see what those levels of unemployment did to RE markets across Canada…prices dropped, a lot.

Until households, marginal, are kept afloat by CERB etc., people will not “see” any misery around them. They will “see” others carrying on as usual. Once CERB etc. gone, they will have to finance themselves out of savings which we know are abysmally low in Canada and FAR TOO MANY a month or so away from financial oblivion.

When that happens, RE prices will plummet BUT not before.

Also, Canada has some MAJOR holes to dig out from under in GDP and with a sick World economically thanks to that damn virus, there will be no wealth to spread around the country.

History a good teacher, few pupils.

#58 Toronto_CA on 07.24.20 at 5:16 pm

#191 BillyBob on 07.24.20 at 11:24 am

================================================

This London resident can’t quite compute what place could be 55 minutes train trip east of The City with an ocean view. Certainly not south. Care to elaborate without outing yourself? More likely the 55 min is a bit of an embellishment, always sounds better to keep it under an hour…
______________

It’s in Brighton. The express train is 52 minutes to Victoria and 55 minutes to London Bridge.

Work just confirmed we don’t have to come in at all until January 2021, and from then it will only be once a week (less if we feel uncomfortable about it).

Here’s my views
https://stanford-ackel.com/sites/default/files/styles/mrbright_slideshow_retina/public/school_images/roedean_2.jpg?itok=GaW_LsEi&timestamp=1426588705

#59 the Jaguar on 07.24.20 at 5:21 pm

What a ‘Summer of Love’. 1968 can’t even begin to touch it. Covid out the ying yang, armed insurrection south of the border, China clamping down here, there, and everywhere like a Paul McCartney lyric reminding the world what the real meaning of totalitarianism is and why it is non-negotiable. Mercy.

Meanwhile, back at the Rancho de Canadiense, we have the quintessenial Canadian scandal which involves ” no money, no sex and nothing illegal ” . Guess we’ll see about that, but I am always wary of organizations that come under scrutiny which involve the welfare of children, and I also hope that if there are any solid investigative journalists still out there they are doing the hard forensic work on the real estate holdings of WE Charity Foundation. Always follow the money. And maybe ask why our Prime Minister held one of the Kielburger brothers in such an extremely tight embrace on video clips. Focus too on Gerald Butts, not Morneau who married a McCain and has very deep pockets of his own. This might be one of those ‘look at the shiny thing here’ tactics to take attention away from more sensitive players. 41,000 is peanuts to someone like Morneau. And by the way….only half the amount that got Nigel Wright into hot water. ( I promised myself to stop crying myself to sleep every night over the treatment of Nigel who sits on the same pedestal that Evan Siddall is firmly placed upon, but I suffer the occasional relapse…)

The G&M broadsheet said the ‘big six’ have set aside loan loss provisions of approx. 11 billion for assets that may go sideways. If you ever wanted a little revenge (Venganza) on those mean old banks sit back and enjoy your little moment of Schadenfreude. But don’t drift off into slumber just yet. Always remember that revenge is a dish best served cold, those same ancient warrior Banks will never be taken alive as prisoners in this or any other campaign, and if you think you have taken the Government of Canada for a buggy ride over CERB, think again in your dealings with the Big Six. ( Five really, but we have to respect the feelings of Quebec). Decide whether you prefer the riding crop or the Luger.

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.24.20 at 5:25 pm

What a mess!
Could have been avoided if the Prez had listened to the FAUCI.
He’s lucky a sitting President cannot be sued.
They probably go after him after the election.

#61 Brian Ripley on 07.24.20 at 5:38 pm

“Covid’s not done. Statistically, you probably won’t get sick. But your income might.” Garth

It’s worth repeating:

Covid’s not done. (it’s a pandemic and this is the first wave)

Statistically, you probably won’t get sick. (if you follow safety protocols when in the company of other people)

But your income might. (it has already)

My charts and tables of employment rates are down double digit percentages measured against data of 10 years ago (not seasonally adjusted):

http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html#Rate

And on the same page, my “class of worker” table shows that the only sector that produced a Y/Y % positive change in June was the FIRE sector (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing).

Apparently this is a good time for drive-by bidding.

#62 Steven Nicolle on 07.24.20 at 5:44 pm

The WHO just announced a record for daily infections with over 286,000. Trudeau and Morneau may want to resign now and leave Freeland the mess. I think the worse will hit the fan when the schools reopen. Add in end of deferrals, eviction controls, high unemployment, debt and bills shortage of day care spaces for working parents. Then everyone getting antsy about physical distancing so just enjoy August while we can.

#63 jess on 07.24.20 at 5:50 pm

“God knows whats else is hidden”
Enlighten yourself Dave. Here is some extra reading you may find helpful to widen your pathway. Some other forms of creation. ….

OFFSHORE SECRECY
What is a tax haven? Offshore finance, explained
https://www.icij.org/investigations/panama-papers/what-is-a-tax-haven-offshore-finance-explained/
Four years after Panama Papers, why ICIJ continues to report on tax havens, and those who exploit them.

‘Unscrupulous’ firms targeting key workers with tax avoidance schemes (10 Jun 2020)

Olympic hero Sir Steve Redgrave used controversial ‘tax avoidance’ scheme that cost the taxpayer up to £5million

Scheme gave investors tax breaks for money put towards regeneration projects
However, some who contributed were able to claim greater relief than allowed
Rower’s involvement comes after HRMC won a tribunal over two Scottish firms
Dark Money Investigations: Investigation
Revealed: Nearly 400,000 British companies evade anti-money laundering checks

Exploring UK companies’ legal ownership chains to detect red flags and verify beneficial ownership information: Part 1
https://www.taxjustice.net/2020/07/06/exploring-uk-companies-legal-ownership-chains-to-detect-red-flags-and-verify-beneficial-ownership-information/

The Common Reporting Standard requires countries and jurisdictions to exchange financial account information from non-residents obtained from their financial institutions automatically on an annual basis, reducing the possibility for offshore tax evasion. Many developing countries have joined the process and more are expected to join in the coming years.

https://www.icij.org/
https://www.icij.org/inside-icij/2020/07/shining-a-light-on-a-secretive-country/

#64 the Jaguar on 07.24.20 at 5:52 pm

I like Dolce Vita’s frivolity on this friday afternoon/evening. Just what we need to forget all the nonsense. And he knows what he is talking about, too.
buon appetito! Grazzi.

#65 Wrk.dover on 07.24.20 at 5:54 pm

#200 Sail Away on 07.24.20 at 1:41 pm

Shroud /stay, what evs

#66 Reximus on 07.24.20 at 5:55 pm

There will likely be a vaccine before the end of the year… problem solved

#67 Faron on 07.24.20 at 5:57 pm

#48 Dolce Vita on 07.24.20 at 4:55 pm

Sounds good! I use bakers percent in my bread baking, so simple ratios work well for me.

Blogs here say high protein durum semolina is best for pasta. You say low. Maybe one with water and the other with egg would yield similar results? Regardless sounds like a good excuse for a pasta-off.

Have a good weekend.

#68 yvr_lurker on 07.24.20 at 5:59 pm

I agree here fully. It is batshit crazy to bid up to stratosphere any overpriced house in the major cities given the real risk of one losing their jobs or watching prices fall down a cliff when the stimulus money runs out. That being said, I also think that it is a large risk to being highly exposed in a market that seems completely oblivious to the economic carnage all around us in many segments of society. Ditto. However, I have resisted the urge, and have followed Garth and have not tinkered too much with our asset allocation in the market and our DC pension. Time will tell here.

However, there is one clear point that I disagree with. The runaway prices in high-end (2M +) properties in our major cities was fueled to a large extent by foreign buyers. There is much anecdotal evidence that the next such pool of nonlocal people are going to those emigrating from Hong Kong. It is not a “closed system” here in Canada and the number of local people who can pony up 2M + is not as relevant to the international pool of such people, who will have motation to come to Toronto and Vancouver.

#69 Keyboard Smasher on 07.24.20 at 6:04 pm

@Garth
> Ottawa does not have the financial capacity to finance eight million people through another wave of the virus.

Are you certain of this? Does anyone ACTUALLY know what our capacity to issue and service debt, really is with severely tapered federal revenues?

What is the primary source of funds for the Federal Government’s COVID response? Is it expanding the cash supply or debt issuance?

Has this been disclosed anywhere? I certainly didn’t hear about the break-down from Bill Chateau.

#70 Sail Away on 07.24.20 at 6:07 pm

#67 Wrk.dover on 07.24.20 at 5:54 pm
#200 Sail Away on 07.24.20 at 1:41 pm

Shroud /stay, what evs

————-

Agreed. All these silly and unimportant designations:

Brake/accelerator
Forward/reverse
Design load/ultimate failure
West/east
Bow/stern, port/starboard, fore/aft

etc…

#71 not 1st on 07.24.20 at 6:09 pm

What exactly is the economic plan to bring us out of this?

BNN is reporting 2/3s of businesses cannot get their workers to come back to work.

Seriously are there no big thinkers in our govt these days. We are in for a long run of bad times.

Why didn’t we take the $350B and put it in Trumps stock market. It would be $500B by now.

#72 Long-Time Lurker on 07.24.20 at 6:11 pm

>Jair Bolsonaro update. Just a quick video. I think he looks pretty healthy at this point in time — in that I can see little trace of Covid symptoms.

Bolsonaro greets supporters as he again tests positive for COVID-19 | AFP
Jul 23, 2020

AFP News Agency
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro greets supporters in front of the Alvorada Palace after he has again tested positive for COVID-19 and saying he would extend his two-week quarantine and suspend upcoming travel plans.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMZAOB1Nw88

#73 Sail Away on 07.24.20 at 6:12 pm

#69 Faron on 07.24.20 at 5:57 pm
#48 Dolce Vita on 07.24.20 at 4:55 pm

Sounds good! I use bakers percent in my bread baking, so simple ratios work well for me.

Blogs here say high protein durum semolina is best for pasta. You say low. Maybe one with water and the other with egg would yield similar results? Regardless sounds like a good excuse for a pasta-off.

————

Interesting.

My manna falls with the dew each morning and has the taste of honey wafers. Something about being amongst the ‘chosen’, whatever that means.

#74 EarlyMillenial on 07.24.20 at 6:15 pm

I am one of those who participated in one of these bidding wars two days and “won”! Before you all pounce on my here’s some more details
1. Interestingly, we fit the profile of the family mentioned on the blog today – family income of $195K, one kid, one car and the house we bought was for $975K. Although the bank approved us to buy a $1.4m home with 20% down after all the calculations we decided that we should buy something close to a $1M and no more
2. we’ve been renting for a while and waiting for the bubble to pop but only to realize that this will just stagnate and decline slowly over time. As a family with a 10 year old rentals have so many constraints that we had to get a place of our own.
3. we looked for a year and any house close to New West (where we live today) was $1.1 – $1.4M. houses on the lower end of this budget needed a lot of work. even if we could afford it I am not convinced that we would be able to weather the storm if one comes about
4. we bit the bullet and bid on a place in Pitt meadows (probably setting a record for that place). Longer commute but we get the space we need and there is always the potential for appreciation.
our approach is similar to Garth’s advice here – the pool of $1.5M+ budget buyers is very small. dont venture in there if you cannot survive the worst.

#75 Penny Henny on 07.24.20 at 6:15 pm

today’s picture- My Dog, doesn’t that dog know to hold the wheel at the 10 and 2 position?

#76 Chris L on 07.24.20 at 6:18 pm

Hi Garth,

Great post today. Many good points made.

Question. Given what may be coming, if one were going to purchase a significant amount (50-100k) of USD ETFs over the next 12 months, would there be any advantage to converting CDN dollars now?

Thanks

Chris

#77 Reximus on 07.24.20 at 6:19 pm

Funny thing people have been saying for years…how / why do people keep driving up prices of properties in GTA? It isnt that they want to or should get into bidding wars, they just do, and they have been doing it for years! It’s now normal here.

I bought my house 22 years ago in…a bidding war! (paid 4k over ask, wasnt even the high bid…did well, said realtor-lady)

The simple reason is these are the properties people want. Dont bother asking why, they just do. And apparently they can afford them. Because if they couldnt, they wouldnt be able to buy them. And of course, the prices wouldnt be so high. And there arent enough of them for sale. Apparently….for now.

When enough sellers finally decide to bail from this place (we’re very close to it) the buyers will finally get a break, I assume.

#78 Bobby Bittman on 07.24.20 at 6:19 pm

In every racket there is an enabler. Drug producers, runners and dealers enable drug addiction with their motive being money and to hell with the resulting human misery.

Policy makers ,Central Banks, Banks and bankers enable irresponsible lending to debt addicts. Their motive is also money. They don’t give a rats ass about the human cost. The only difference between these two enablers is the dress code.

#79 Stone on 07.24.20 at 6:26 pm

The 40k is (in the example given) for a couple in the GTA. As stated, quasi-poverty. Why would you choose it? – Garth

———

Because, for many (more likely most), $40k annually is aspirational (and the best they can do).

Life is about choices. Never forget that. – Garth

#80 Penny Henny on 07.24.20 at 6:36 pm

#27 Ace Goodheart on 07.24.20 at 4:22 pm
I was out this week looking at a house (that I did not want to buy) so I could do a bit of investigative reporting on how houses in “prime” neighbourhoods are being sold.

We brought the baby, the wife. We dressed up. We tried to look desperate. Told them we were staying with family. Our “backstory” included a large cash deposit from a home we had recently sold, a baby on the way (wife did an amazing job looking pregnant – she is not) and our two year old son in my arms.

////////

Ace either you are a frickin liar or you have gone off the deep end and hit your head in a pool with no water.

“(wife did an amazing job looking pregnant – she is not)”- maybe she got the covid 15 or you are nutso

#81 Sail Away on 07.24.20 at 6:38 pm

#67 Wrk.dover on 07.24.20 at 5:54 pm
#200 Sail Away on 07.24.20 at 1:41 pm

Shroud /stay, what evs

————

Actually, the most important question is:

Where do you put your gollywobbler??

#82 Nonplused on 07.24.20 at 6:40 pm

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.24.20 at 5:25 pm
“What a mess!
Could have been avoided if the Prez had listened to the FAUCI.”

What did Fauci recommend that Trump didn’t implement? And remember the response to health issues is a state by state one so other than the travel bans and border security there is only so much Trump can actually do. Whether to open up the bars or allow protests/riots is a state by state decision. I think it is provincial in Canada as well but I’m not sure.

It’s nice to think Trump is responsible for all that is evil in the world, but the powers of the executive branch are actually quite limited. To get anything serious done he has to have congress behind him, which is why not much has happened since the dems retook the house.

I mean look at how much trouble he had getting funding for his border wall! Something that already exists in many areas and was built by others before him. Even democrats funded it in previous years. Trump wants to finish it and suddenly it is evil and should be torn down.

Or how about the “Trump puts children in cages!” hysteria? The border agents are following the exact same policies and using the exact same facilities they did under Obama when detaining people crossing the border illegally. I’m not sure what the border agents are supposed to do. “Oh you have a child with you? Ok you can cross illegally.” Or how about “Oh you have a child with you? We’ll throw him in the prison with you and the other adults.” It is a tough thing to deal with. But TDS has otherwise reasonable adults think that Trump wrote a memo mandating to torture children. Nope. He wanted to build a wall so the problem would go away, or at least be much reduced. Nancy said “no”.

#83 Penny Henny on 07.24.20 at 6:53 pm

#58 Toronto_CA on 07.24.20 at 5:16 pm
#191 BillyBob on 07.24.20 at 11:24 am

================================================

This London resident can’t quite compute what place could be 55 minutes train trip east of The City with an ocean view. Certainly not south. Care to elaborate without outing yourself? More likely the 55 min is a bit of an embellishment, always sounds better to keep it under an hour…
______________

It’s in Brighton. The express train is 52 minutes to Victoria and 55 minutes to London Bridge.
////////////////

Billybob usually has good commentary but he can get all high and mighty at times.
Maybe it’s all the thin air he breaths.

#84 Trojan House on 07.24.20 at 6:53 pm

Here’s some things and questions to ponder:

You can have covid and be asymptomatic, however, you can still spread the disease. Therefore, do we not have to assume that EVERYONE has covid?

Because everyone could have it and be asymptomatic, we have been instructed to wear masks. However, if we all have it, as is presumed by being asymptomatic spreaders, then why do we have to wear a mask and social distance? There is no purpose to wearing a mask if we have the virus.

If I go and get tested and my test comes back negative, why do I have to wear a mask and social distance? I would not have the virus if I test negative. But I have heard that testing negative doesn’t matter because as soon as I leave the testing facility, I can get Covid. So then, what is the purpose of getting tested if I can get it anyway afterward? If that is the case, should I get tested daily, weekly, 3 times a day, 3 times a week, etc?

Just some things to ponder…

#85 Linda on 07.24.20 at 7:03 pm

#42 ‘SeeB’ – my post does state that GTA/YVR pricing is not reasonable. Have to ask why it is that only GTA/YVR or locales within reach of same are the only ones that will satisfy? There are other places to live in Canada. However, if one ‘must’ live in either locale, one would think the pandemic crushing of AirBnb rentals would have upped the market supply by a considerable amount, even as it lowered the price. Of course, given the ‘Keep Your Rent’ crowd, most people would rather not have to deal with a tenant who might refuse to pay once in. Yes, they’d still be losing cash, but at least they wouldn’t have the tenant doing who knows what to their depreciating asset at their expense.

#86 will on 07.24.20 at 7:04 pm

#6 TurnerNation

“Our tele-screens rule our lives and freedom now.”

Well speak for yourself. I don’t even have a tv.

#87 First Time Poster on 07.24.20 at 7:10 pm

It’s official everyone has gone bananas for house in suburbia!!! Am I the only one with access to Bungol or Housesigma? This place sold in 2018 for $1.25M. Sold today again for $1.415M a $165K over ask!! https://www.bungol.ca/map/43.818625&-79.623064&17?listing=167-lio-avenue-vaughan-n4838851-4183322
While I thin you are right that this party will eventually end it will last longer. My guess until January 2021.

#88 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.24.20 at 7:12 pm

The US is fiddling with the ‘Covid’ numbers to keep the fear going just like Canada did. Last week Quebec started to release numbers more accurately and the Canada-wide number of active cases fell by 80%. https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/active-coronavirus-cases-in-canada-plummet-as-quebec-changes-recovery-criteria-1.5028586?fbclid=IwAR3rPg6ifbEUSBddYNLmP3HbxLPYisSrq-O3uuhK2L4deI2_OmreL5BslG0

The more you Trump enthusiasts try to diminish the suffering and deaths of others the more repugnant I find you, – Garth

#89 Asterix1 on 07.24.20 at 7:26 pm

You have to be nuts to buy anything in Toronto at the moment. A termite infected, 150 years old home with leaky pipes and an unfinished basement is definitely not worth 1.3 Million$.

Can you locally produce or import enough idiots to keep these prices up. Probably not, once income dries up, and immigrants keep their distance.

Our economy is in massive trouble! (and that was already evident pre-Covid).

#90 YVR Renter on 07.24.20 at 7:30 pm

Um, $1.5 million for a house in Van? Where are you looking? The dredges of Burnaby…no, you cant even get a dump there for that? And that’s not Van. A moldy crackshack teardown you would never live in (rats included) starts at $2.5 mill.

The blog dog in Collingwood ON yesterday who said things were heating up is right. We’re planning to list for sale a vacant country acreage with glorious views of Georgian Bay, and the realtors, first salivate, then tell us stuff is on fire, especially stunning lots. One called it the ‘exodus from Toronto’. Hope our timing is right, for once!

Benchmark detached price in YVR was $1.46 million in June. – Garth

#91 cramar on 07.24.20 at 7:36 pm

Now 150 medical experts are urging Trump, Congress, and state governments to shut down the whole U.S. until this virus is under control. Wow!

#92 James on 07.24.20 at 7:37 pm

Garth said two days ago………….

“You will long remember 2020. Largely for what’s yet to happen”

I am thinking this will be so right.

Think ahead three months –

Trudeau
Morneau
Payette
Trump

All will be gone. And what a mess we’ll be in.

#93 Dave on 07.24.20 at 7:43 pm

Uk has NO pandemic.
The current charade is only the 8th worst winter flu season in the past 27 years.
https://hectordrummond.com/2020/07/17/another-jaw-dropping-graph/

Boris the bottler is simply doubling down in order to save face as he bankrupted the country for a dose of flu.

As for the uS. The current infections are not deaths and they have a huge scandal brewing over testing Centers with fake numbers.

Reports of 300 testing centres producing 100% false positives.
Trump apparently “fired” the cdc.. “So now that Trump has said hospitals need to report numbers to WH instead of the CDC, the CDC just came out & said they made another “mistake” in FL; And they’ve also been counting Pneumonia & Flu as Covid– dropping their # from approx 90,000 to 11,000.”
They were adding testing and antibody tests together and reporting them all as +ve cases.

#94 cuke and tomato picker on 07.24.20 at 7:47 pm

Bill Gates said on CNN last night that AT THE end of 2020 we will
improve our ability to treat the virus by 80 percent and by mid 2121 we will have a vaccine that will need a follow up vaccine later.

#95 Flop... on 07.24.20 at 7:47 pm

#203 Smartalox on 07.24.20 at 2:20 pm
@Flop #108:

Thanks for the suggestion, but we’re determined to move to Edmonton. My wife’s parents have been there for decades, are aging, and we’d like our son to get some grandparent time with them before it’s too late.

Besides, if you look at SFH in Edmonton on Zolo, you’ll quickly see that one can get 2x the house for 1/2 the price, a 4X increase in value.

I’ll admit that after window shopping for a few months, I can’t stand to look at my saved searches for the lower mainland without gagging or giggling. Mostly gagging.

Me and the Missus were looking at this listing, and I was thinking what it would take to finish the floors an install a new kitchen. Any estimate / professional opinion?

https://www.zolo.ca/edmonton-real-estate/447-wilkin-way-north-west

////////////////////////

Hey Smartie, I looked at all the photos, here is my conclusion.

The listing said newer roof, newer furnace, this is obviously a plus.

Back deck looks new too.

Looks like all the trim has been spray painted with all the built in shelves laid on the ground, causing the pattern on the floor.

For the money you are spending on it as is, 700k, without knowing what trades charge in that region, I would budget 100k to concentrate mainly on the flooring, kitchen and master bath.

It looks like they have made the decision for you by ripping up the old floors, if you smell blood, this could be used as a bargaining tool, not everyone wants to deal with this sort of detail.

On Monday, I will be working with what I regard as one of the best floor guys in Vancouver, so you have a couple of days to think of any questions you have for someone who specializes in this department.

It is a big investment for you and your family, I will gladly spend five minutes getting the information you desire.

Free renovation advice?

Yes, Greaterfool does that too…

M46BC

#96 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.24.20 at 7:51 pm

#56 KenR on 07.24.20 at 5:15 pm
@29 Dave.
They were elected, by the taxpayers. If you want to see the problem with this nation, people need to look in the mirror.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
To be fair you have to remember that all political parties are basically the same (the have the same hidden overlords). There is no place on the ballot to tick-off for selecting ‘disestablishment of government’. Those same hidden rulers forbid that.

#97 Faron on 07.24.20 at 7:59 pm

86 Trojan House on 07.24.20 at 6:53 pm

Here’s some things and questions to ponder:

Consider them pondered. Very M.C. Escher-esque things and questions of yours.

You can have covid and be asymptomatic, however, you can still spread the disease. Therefore, do we not have to assume that EVERYONE has covid?

No, who has had it can be measured. Currently in the US, best estimates are that anywhere from 10% to 20% have had it based on random serology screens. That’s not everyone. Very likely less people in Canada.

However, if we all have it,

We don’t, see your faulty premise above.

…as is presumed by being asymptomatic spreaders, then why do we have to wear a mask and social distance? There is no purpose to wearing a mask if we have the virus.

But, again, we don’t all have it nor do we all have antibodies. (this is where your water starts to flow uphill…)

If I go and get tested and my test comes back negative, why do I have to wear a mask and social distance? I would not have the virus if I test negative.

With high levels of prevalence, you could have it by the time you got home and finished picking your nose.

But I have heard that testing negative doesn’t matter because as soon as I leave the testing facility,

Oh, you got that. Cool.

…I can get Covid. So then, what is the purpose of getting tested if I can get it anyway afterward?

You test to achieve a difinitive positive, not a negative. You test so the spread can be understood. You test so you can stay the heck away from everyone if you are positive. You test so you can proudly proclaim to your friends/blog dogs that you got the virus but are healthy as a South American quasi dictator.

…If that is the case, should I get tested daily, weekly, 3 times a day, 3 times a week, etc?

Ideally, your phone would have an accessory with a sinuc probe that is capable of PCR gene sequencing and you could test yourself for fun as often as you like.

Just some things to ponder…

Done. Thanks! That was fun.

#98 will on 07.24.20 at 8:01 pm

#6 TurnerNation

Try saying out loud: “my television rules my life and freedom now.”

See how ridiculous it sounds? does your television really rule your life? if it does maybe you should consider cutting the cable. or don’t even own one like me.

#99 cramar on 07.24.20 at 8:09 pm

#84 Nonplused on 07.24.20 at 6:40 pm

What did Fauci recommend that Trump didn’t implement? And remember the response to health issues is a state by state one so other than the travel bans and border security there is only so much Trump can actually do. Whether to open up the bars or allow protests/riots is a state by state decision. I think it is provincial in Canada as well but I’m not sure.

It’s nice to think Trump is responsible for all that is evil in the world, but the powers of the executive branch are actually quite limited. To get anything serious done he has to have congress behind him, which is why not much has happened since the dems retook the house.

————————–
POTUS might have limited powers, but he still has power, authority, and responsibility. Remember it was a President who said, “The buck stops here!” In time of crisis people look to their leader for security, safety, and LEADERSHIP! An ideal leader would have:

1) Taken the threat seriously from the beginning.

2) Taken seriously recommendations of medical authorities

3) Taken a leadership roll in marshalling the country’s resources

4) Ensure all PPE is manufactured in the U.S. a.s.a.p.

5) Mobilized federal resources—PROPERLY!

6) SET THE EXAMPLE, by wearing a mask early and telling the entire population we can beat this if we ALL wear masks and avoid crowds.

7) Rally the American public, Congress, and Senate, behind the war cry of beating this virus. This is not a GOP vs liberal issue, but America against an enemy virus.

8) For anything not mentioned, see a)

#100 Dogman01 on 07.24.20 at 8:14 pm

Ok – I am trying not to let my evolutionary paranoia instinct run wild.

But I was watching Teresa Tam, and she used a really odd phrase, something to the effect of “shaping a generation” .

Anyway they seem to have young people as a target now but ignoring all the flights inbound for some reason.

I guess the globalist elite need to fly but the masses of us need to be in fear.

Like I said the more this does not add up the more parinoid I get.

#101 Trojan House on 07.24.20 at 8:20 pm

#94 Faron on 07.24.20 at 7:59 pm

Thanks for pondering my questions and I’m glad you thought it was fun! But here are some rebuttals to your answers:

I know that we can measure who has had it, however, that is not what I’m saying. What I’m saying is that politicians and public health officials have told us to wear a mask and practice social distancing because there is a possibility that we may have the virus but be asymptomatic. Being asymptomatic, we don’t know if we have the virus or not so unless we get tested, many times repeatedly in fact, then we have to assume we have it until we prove that we don’t.

Therefore, what again this means is that we have to assume that all people are asymptomatic spreaders of the virus. Isn’t that what everyone thinks when they call people out for not wearing a mask or standing too close? Don’t you try to avoid people at stores or when you are going on a walk because you think they may have the virus and will pass it to you when they sneeze as you walk by them?

The only way to disprove that people are not asymptomatic spreaders is to get tested, correct? So, once again, if I test negative do I have to wear a mask and social distance? Can I go for a walk and not veer 20 feet around someone or have them veer 20 feet around me? However, you are saying that I have to keep getting tested repeatedly until I either test positive and then stay home or test negative day after day until there is a vaccine or the virus goes away. So, if I do test negative day after day, should I still wear a mask and social distance? Afterall, I tested negative.

#102 Idiocy on 07.24.20 at 8:23 pm

to # 76 Early Millenial

” I am one of those who participated in one of those bidding wars and “won”.”

” … only to realize that this will stagnate and decline slowly over time.”

“… and there is always the potential for appreciation.”

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA !

That is some twisted rationalization bud.

Let me translate:

My wife gave me an ultimatum to buy a house and I said ‘yes dear’.

#103 Ace Goodheart on 07.24.20 at 8:34 pm

#82 Penny Henny:

Nope, everything I wrote is true and actually happened.

The house we visited was just down the street from ours in Bloor West Village.

We “punked” a realtor I guess.

Though I hardly think he noticed. There were two couples waiting outside in their cars while we did our showing.

I didn’t go to offer night (;

#104 Wrk.dover on 07.24.20 at 8:37 pm

#83 Sail Away on 07.24.20 at 6:38 pm
#67 Wrk.dover on 07.24.20 at 5:54 pm
#200 Sail Away on 07.24.20 at 1:41 pm

Shroud /stay, what evs

————

Actually, the most important question is:

Where do you put your gollywobbler??

————————

In B.C.

#105 Idiocy on 07.24.20 at 8:41 pm

to comment # 58 Toronto CA

Always makes me laugh when people talk about their ‘short commute time’.

Do you live in the train station in Brighton and is your office in London located in Victoria Station or London Bridge ?

And do the trains magically appear when get to the platform? And are they never delayed ?

52 and 55 minutes are the TRANSIT times IF the train is on schedule.

You have to get to Brighton station, wait for a train and disembark in London and get to your office – often through heavy pedestrian traffic.

That adds a lot of additional time so, no your commute is not, in reality, 52 / 55 minutes.

And yes, I lived in central London in Kensington, office in St James Square so I have a clue as to how long it takes to get around London.

#106 Rent the Podium on 07.24.20 at 8:50 pm

Morneau may have made a mistake, but imagine the Cons alternative: Poilievre. I think I’ll stick with Morneau.

#107 willworkforpickles on 07.24.20 at 8:52 pm

I thought in early 2017 before anyone was thinking it and I posted it here – that by late 2017 we will see the greatest fools of all time buying real estate in the GTA and that came true… until 2020 that is.
Who new then of an economic lockdown to come. Nobody could fathom such an outcome as now. So 2020 see’s a repeat transition of greatest fools of all time buying at peak as a result of pent-up demand for real estate and a FOMO amongst the dwindling pool of qualified greater fools soon to run dry.
This now in effect exonerates the fools of the last peak but only the ones who sell out. (very few likely will at any rate).
The town cabbages of the last peak holding on like the town cabbages buying now must think they can manage through thick and thin…after-all, having the HEAD, a fools ransom for today’s prices and the intestinal fortitude for it is all it takes.
…or so they think.
And Tomorrow??

#108 TurnerNation on 07.24.20 at 8:54 pm

No, I do not own a telescreen. But we are starting at a screen right now.
Matters not. The glowing screen is gospel to most
Our rulers know this . Where would T2 be without it?
Repeat after me: just two more weeks. Give up your rights and stand six feet apart and wear face diaper and shutter your business and we will flatten that curve ! Soon. 2 more weeks we will show that bat who is boss. I’m thinking two more years.
Our elites got us scared good. Totally under their thumb.
No in this slave system now we’ll have to earn everything. No free ride, no freedom.
We are in the Compliance phase.
Every message we are told is not about how to maintain personal health, eating, fitness. No it’s only , fear & comply. Or else you cannot transact commerce.
Gotta hand it to them. The world fell in one week in March.

#109 S.Bby on 07.24.20 at 8:56 pm

Over 150 Medical Experts Urge Trump, Congress and States to Shut U.S. Down Again Amid Virus Surge:

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-07-24/over-150-medical-experts-urge-trump-congress-and-states-to-shut-us-down-again-amid-coronavirus-surge

#110 Idiocy on 07.24.20 at 9:09 pm

to comment # 108

Pierre Poliviere is the only politician effectively examining Morneau’s “mistake” and revealing it to be anything but.

Poliviere isn’t the one being asked to resign – Morneau is, and with good reason.

Something is affecting your critical thinking abilities – Liberal supporter by chance ?

Get informed.

#111 Flop... on 07.24.20 at 9:21 pm

#92 YVR Renter on 07.24.20 at 7:30 pm
Um, $1.5 million for a house in Van? Where are you looking? The dredges of Burnaby…no, you cant even get a dump there for that? And that’s not Van. A moldy crackshack teardown you would never live in (rats included) starts at $2.5 mill.

/////////////////////////

What year is it on your calendar?

Perfectly liveable house in South Vancouver for under a million.

Probably would have gone for around 1.3, if on the market in 2016/2017.

The developers are still looking for deals but a larger percentage are sitting on their hands.

I’ve worked on two major renovations this year of hundred year old houses.

Both 4 year projects.

There is still a lot of building, but the major decisions were made years ago…

M46BC

https://www.rew.ca/properties/2629099/430-e-58th-avenue-vancouver-bc

#112 Trojan House on 07.24.20 at 9:24 pm

#101 cramar on 07.24.20 at 8:09 pm

According to public health officials, a person can be asymptomatic and spread the virus. What does that mean? Well, I think that means that we may have the virus, not even know and then spread it. If I’m wrong, please correct me.

Therefore, as everyone is acting right now, everyone must have the virus. Do you look at the next person and try to avoid them? Do you wear a mask? Yes? Why do you wear a mask? Because you’ve been told you could be an asymptomatic spreader. If that is the case, then I could be an asymptomatic spreader. Heck, even Garth could be an asymptomatic spreader! What we have been told is to wear a mask and social distance because we could spread a virus we don’t even know we have because we could be asymptomatic!

According to Faron, we need to test to see if we have it. Well, I’m saying we’ve already been told we have it because we’ve told to wear a mask because we may spread it and we’ve been told to social distance because we may spread it. Therefore, you, me, Garth and everyone else must already have it!

#113 Ballingsford on 07.24.20 at 9:27 pm

Bidding wars here in Ottawa. When do you think it’ll turn around? I’m looking.

#114 Living the high life on 07.24.20 at 9:35 pm

If you just did the math, you would know that amongst the highest paid Ontario government employees (those 166,977 people making over $100K in 2019), the average salary was $128K. That’s over $21 billion in salaries to feed the house horniness. And that’s only one income in a family.

The bigger and more troubling tragedy here is actually that these people are handsomely paid, most vastly overpaid and everyone is paying for their largeness… Not to mention the defined-benefit pensions that are paid out of taxpayer funds.

For this, I thank each of you as I stare out over the lake from my tax-payer funded McMansion!

#115 Faron on 07.24.20 at 9:49 pm

#103 Trojan House on 07.24.20 at 8:20 pm

#94 Faron on 07.24.20 at 7:59 pm

I apologize for snark factor 11 on the previous.

I think I see where you are coming from — that there may be a catch 22 of some kind that negates our efforts. But, I don’t think it works that way.

This is how I see it.

1a) We know that the minority (again, 10%-20%ish but variable by region) of people have the bug and are currently infectious or have had it, but for the most part we don’t know who those people are.

1b) We actually don’t know with any kind of certainty yet that antibodies last for any length of time.

2) We know that limiting contact between spreaders and those not infected slows the transmission. The more contact is limited, the slower the spread hence masks.

3) There are roughly two states that can be taken in limiting transmission. Hard isolation and social distancing measures, mask wearing and suchlike.

If we know 1a is true then, as you say, we have to assume that everyone has it including ourselves even though we know that not everyone has it. And if we get tested and it comes back negative, we may also know that we didn’t have it at the time of the test. Regardless, the distinction, is that we know statistical prevalence, but not definitive per person prevalence.

The only way to avoid using statistical prevalence to guide activity is if testing were continuous, results instantaneous and communication of those results were perfect. To freak out TurnerNation, how about a device that lives in your blood stream and communicates through bluetooth to a reader board on your forehead a giant “+” or “-” for all to see? Until that happens, we don’t know who’s got it and can infect and who hasn’t had it and can be infected. So, we have to take the lighter form of prevention that allows some mobility and some economy, but helps prevent spread.

So, why test? Basically to distinguish between requiring immediate, hard lock-down and being able to participate in what’s left of society. First, if you test and test positive then you know, for certain, that you need to take the couch alone for at least two weeks. Your test also tells epidemiologists that there are infections in a place with certainty (within test accuracy). The negative test tells you that, until you know otherwise, you get to carry on. Your negative doesn’t excuse you from wearing a mask because, as you noted, you could have been infected on the way home from the clinic. Your negative means you still have to assume you are infectious enough to warrant a mask and social distancing because your status isn’t definitive. Essentially, there can be no definitive negative for any length of time, but this doesn’t make tests useless or unneeded.

#116 Wake Up Neo on 07.24.20 at 9:53 pm

Condos May Be On The Way Out, Statistics Canada Predicts

Former Airbnb units are hitting the market at a time when buyers are looking further out of the city.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/condo-market-canada_ca_5f19a5c6c5b6296fbf3eef6b?ncid=other_trending_qeesnbnu0l8&utm_campaign=trending

#117 Nottawa Housing Bust on 07.24.20 at 10:25 pm

Garth, I understand your faith in our banks, but you have to admit in the last 6 months NOTHING HAS PROVED IMPOSSIBLE. I would not be surprised of there was some sort of “bank bail in” or rescue. It might already be happening with the amount of securities the BoC is purchasing.

It would be nice to know what equities they feel they need to purchase

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/07/bank-canada-announces-new-securities-repo-operations/

Something does not feel right about the BoC needing to have repo ops in securities. What is it that the market will not buy??? I was trying to find a link to the amount they have purchased already. Its astounding. This cannot go on forever.

#118 Trojan House on 07.24.20 at 10:27 pm

#117 Faron on 07.24.20 at 9:49 pm

I didn’t notice any snark factor so no apologies necessary!

However, I still don’t think you understand exactly what I mean, although I think you are getting closer.

Public health officials and politicians are telling us the best way to stop the spread of the virus is to wear a mask and social distance.

Therefore, they have to be assuming that we all must have it, because, while some will develop clear symptoms (major or minor), some will be asymptomatic, meaning they don’t even know they have it and will continue to go about their daily business potentially infecting others.

Sure testing may tell us how many people have it or have had it, but as you say, a negative test still means that you may have it anyway because everyone still has to assume that they are infectious. So, what you are then essentially saying is that we all have it regardless of whether we test negative or not. And that is what the public health officials and politicians are saying and why they keep locking us down, order us to wear masks at all times in public and social distance.

So I wonder, why the pretending? Just admit that everyone has it and some will develop minor symptoms, some will get very sick, possibly even die (mostly the elderly) and some will show no symptoms at all. Once we admit this, we can admit lockdowns will not help the situation, either for the spread of the virus or for the economy.

#119 Trojan House on 07.24.20 at 10:31 pm

I meant to say, “just admit that everyone may potentially have it…” and those that don’t have it, won’t have any problems and those that actually have it will have either major or minor symptoms and some will have it but have no symptoms at all…

#120 The real Kip (Ret) on 07.24.20 at 10:47 pm

Wow, this truly is bad news. Should be good for at least a 5% rise in markets as The Fed goes all-in Monday. Let er rip Jerome!

#121 Boomer Bill on 07.24.20 at 10:59 pm

News from the ground folks. This sale took place last week across the street from a bud’s house. Decrepit bungalow, 5 minute walk to the subway in Etobicoke, listed for $1.1 million, sold for $1.35 million in 4 days. Obviously bought only for its lot value…

#122 Boomer Bill on 07.24.20 at 11:04 pm

#116 Living the high life on 07.24.20 at 9:35 pm
If you just did the math, you would know that amongst the highest paid Ontario government employees (those 166,977 people making over $100K in 2019), the average salary was $128K. That’s over $21 billion in salaries to feed the house horniness. And that’s only one income in a family.
————————————————————–

You hit the nail on the head. All this talk of foreign buyers bidding up prices in the GTA when the reality is the above in your post. Government workers who make good coin and have tenure are the banker’s best friends. Those who aren’t making money from the Keynesian system that is Canada are truly screwed. As long as you have an ever growing Sunshine list combined with low supply, prices have only one way to go…

#123 Colleen McDermit on 07.24.20 at 11:20 pm

DELETED

#124 Idealistic Realist on 07.24.20 at 11:27 pm

#42 SeeB on 07.24.20 at 4:49 pm

Apartments above stores in the Torono burbs generally go for $900 – $1,200. Look for ones that are planned for demolition in 5-10 years. Most are over 100 yo and look worse for wear on the outside. High ceilings, lots of space on the inside. No masks!! Recommend cameras for the exits for when the looting starts.

You usually have to know someone to get in. Homey discount deals. Maybe begin with finding out who the largest developer is in the area you’re interested in and give them a ring. Just remember to not ask for any superficial renos. You stay out of their way and they stay out of yours. That’s what I heard anyway ;)

#125 millmech on 07.25.20 at 12:22 am

All these people buying in the suburbs because WFH is the new norm, what happens in the 2021 when the economy takes a hit. I am noticing a lot of retailers are all going online and closing physical locations.
It will not be just the low paid sales people but all the people that service that economy that will be taking a hit as well. This will work its way up through the economy and when people get nervous and cut back on spending or can not spend anymore because of indebtedness watch what happens to the economy.
A prudent move would be to stay in cash until this blows over rather than being a bag holder for one to two million dollars in dead equity.

#126 Person woman man camera tv on 07.25.20 at 1:09 am

110 TurnerNation on 07.24.20 at 8:54 pm

Our elites got us scared good
…..

They sure got you…..they own you.

#127 NSNG on 07.25.20 at 1:14 am

So the big question becomes:

Why are banks lending these people money?

#128 Anti-masker Karen and her bags on 07.25.20 at 1:19 am

The world has become one endless stream of real time comedy… a date for TN?

https://twitter.com/notcapnamerica/status/1286138874742419456?s=19

#129 TRON on 07.25.20 at 1:48 am

My gold stocks have doubled in the last 3 months. I’m glad that gold gets no respect on this financial blog. There’s a better chance of CNN saying the peacefull protests in Portland are getting a little violent. Gold futures closed at $1900 today just $20.31 away from it’s all time high.

It’s easy to understand why people would scoff at gold given the price history but hard to deny that every so often it goes way up when money gets dumped into the economy.

Nobody can predict where the price will go but best guess based on historic, unprecedented, insane, trillions of dollars being helicoptered in from Neverland it will go higher??

Let’s check back in a year and in the meantime don’t look at gold because there is nothing to see here.

#130 Gregor Samsa on 07.25.20 at 1:52 am

I do wonder what will happen to Canadian society when the regular cold and flu season hits, supercharged with Covid. Hard to imagine it’s not going to go back under full lockdown by Christmas, unless there is a significant change of mindset towards the virus.

Garth says we can’t afford another bailout, but if you have a rouge Prime Minister hellbent on re-election at all costs and who doesn’t care about consequences (because he’s personally set for life no matter what), you’d be surprised what becomes affordable. CREB all the way until the next election?

#131 willworkforpickles on 07.25.20 at 2:01 am

2020…the year 75 % of North America went quietly insane.
2021…the year 75 % of North Americans get much louder as they become more openly insane.
2022…the year society explodes in almost every insane manner conceivable.

#132 Tim123 on 07.25.20 at 2:01 am

The financial knowledge of Canadians and Americans is quite low. That is the only explanation for people bidding up real estate prices in the middle of a pandemic. It doesn’t take someone with a PhD in economics to know there are major problems in the economy so I don’t know what people are thinking. I see some people on the blog talking about income inequality. I don’t see it that way, no one is forcing anyone to buy houses beyond their means.

#133 IHCTD9's Psychiatrist on 07.25.20 at 2:01 am

#113 kingston boy on 07.23.20 at 7:27 pm
#100 IHCTD9 on 07.23.20 at 6:55 pm

Toronto loses more of its Citizenry to other regions than any other city in Canada. The RE prices suck. The traffic sucks. The Leafs suck.
——————————–

I knew it. you’re the 50 YEARS OF LEAFS….. guy.
You the STAY AWAY guy as well.
—————————————————————–

Well done! Yep, one and the same idiot posting all his diatribes against Toronto. He is a total clown with his sweeping generalizations about Toronto. Funny, the blogmaster comments when folks make sweeping generalizations about small town Ontario but not when folks make the same generalizations about Toronto…

#134 Toronto_CA on 07.25.20 at 5:07 am

#107 Idiocy on 07.24.20 at 8:41 pm
to comment # 58 Toronto CA

Always makes me laugh when people talk about their ‘short commute time’.

Do you live in the train station in Brighton and is your office in London located in Victoria Station or London Bridge ?

________________

My office is about 2 minutes from London Bridge, and my new house is about a 10 minute walk to the station sure. But as Brighton is the first stop on the way to London, I’m guaranteed a seat and they have tables and WiFi if I want to do some work or surf (lately I’m a podcast addict – Garth do a weekly podcast please?)

Not really sure the point of my post hasn’t been found; that commuting into the office is really not needed anymore. I can handle a 1 hour-ish commute in my new digs once a week no problem. People have done a lot worse 5 days a week for decades.

#135 Under the radar on 07.25.20 at 5:38 am

My clients house closed yesterday to a buyer who mortgaged everything and then some , needed four extensions , and went through a couple of private lenders . He got the nicest house on the Scarborough Bluffs , overlooking Lake Ontario. He paid about 1million over any reasonable appraisal. People have lost their minds.
Another client paid over 2mil for a 30ft Leaside home , very nice all around. Parking is an issue .

#136 Captain Uppa on 07.25.20 at 7:21 am

I have always loved suburbia. Though not a huge fan of the soulless subdlvisions where every house looks the same, but I can see why some just like them.

Anyways, I do wonder though if working from home will last.

“ Months into a pandemic that rapidly reshaped how companies operate, an increasing number of executives now say that remote work, while necessary for safety much of this year, is not their preferred long-term solution once the coronavirus crisis passes.” – Wall Street Journal

Link: https://apple.news/AqmeJ_z7ZQUG8K9uIRHw9dw

#137 paulo on 07.25.20 at 7:41 am

Answer for #129:

Because the Tax Payer has the banks back……

#138 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.25.20 at 9:58 am

I hate talking about this stupid virus, but everyone needs to remember, that this is not an encapsulated virus like, say herpes. If you have it, you will be over it in 2 weeks or in the hospital with complications due to it, or dead. If you hole up for 2 weeks – and you’re still walking around after, you don’t have it. You don’t keep spreading it in perpetuity…

If you are so incredibly scared and worried, it’s not hard to buy 2 weeks of groceries and beer, grab a few books and take a staycation…

And if you’re not worriedly or not willing, stop griping about the whole thing and trying to control everyone – it’s a lesson on futility…

#139 D.D. Corkum on 07.25.20 at 10:07 am

#55 Cto on 07.24.20 at 5:11 pm

[…] Canadian Bank bail-ins […]

You don’t understand what you are talking about. Under Canadian law, a ‘bail in’ would affect investors holding certain kinds of preferred shares/debt where it states very clearly in the prospectus that the money is at risk.

This has NOTHING to do with deposits. Normal people putting money in a bank are perfectly safe.

The Canadian system is designed to guarantee that investors will feel pain long before either depositors or taxpayers. It assures that those investors will never fall into complacency, thus leading to perpetually resilient banks.

Bottom line: there is nothing to fear for our banks.

#140 Chris on 07.25.20 at 1:11 pm

Garth What Risk?

The Realtors, Banks, BOC and Government have made it all risk free – They have shifted all the risk to CHMC and taxpayers.

BOC comes out and says interest rates wills stay low indefinitely because ‘homes are too big to fail’

We don’t have a market – It’s manipulated and artificial.

Investors/savers are subsidizing home owners with low interest rates and have been for 15 years.