The surprise

Have you ever noticed the way media covers financial stuff?

Never fails. When the market loses 2% in a day, it ‘plunges’ as ‘investors stampede the exits.’ This is big news. Pay attention and be terrified. However, when stocks add hundreds of points in a day, the story is buried, and preceded with, ‘Markets moved higher. Here’s Karen with the details, and the weather. Looks like a nice weekend…’

Well, here at GreaterFool we don’t mess with the news. It’s all unvarnished. When the world’s going nose-first into the kitty litter, we report it faithfully. When the tide turns, you get that straight. These days investors should be grinning. Covid may have made a mess of a lot of things, but it also handed over a generational opportunity.

The S&P 500 (the only index you should watch, but not on BNN) is ahead 12% year/year. It’s even up overall in 2020, which is astonishing after a trip into bear market territory in March. In fact since the 23rd of that month, the index is ahead 49%. This year brought the swiftest-ever descent, and the fastest-ever recovery. It you sold when the virus hit, you got a spanking (not the good kind). If you backed up the truck and bought, you’ve made a pile. If you had a B&D portfolio and yawned right through it, Covid’s ended up a dud.

But that’s history. What’s next?

More.

Here’s why.

Stimulus from governments and CBs will to continue. Forever, apparently. The latest evidence came from the EU Tuesday – a package worth about one trillion C$ to finance European recovery. Stocks on that continent have outperformed those in the US for a couple of months now – so I trust your portfolio is global and has exposure there. If not, get some.

Second, a vaccine’s coming. Inevitably. The latest news is one will be approved in Europe in 2020 – and that might be beaten in the US if the Moderna juice continues to look promising. Remember all this is being financed by governments, willing to spend billions on quickly producing hundreds of millions of doses. Even if vaccines are less than miraculous, therapies for Covid are being tested and implemented routinely. The day one of these things is stamped as safe and effective, stand back. Your portfolio will have an eruption.

Third, Trump just wore a mask. He tweeted and used Insta Monday to say this was the “patriotic” thing to do. Amazing. So a river’s been crossed. All the anti-vaxers, socons and F150 AR-15 deplorables just got punked by their grand poohbah. The guy may have done the correct thing, but he’s political toast as a result. He lost the centre long ago. Now he’s ratted on the right. Markets like certainty. They just got it.

Next, look at the retail sales. In Canada they zoomed higher by 19% in May month/month and it looks like June delivered a 25% gain. Car sales soared 66%. Impressive and probably fueled by a heady mix of pent-up demand, deferred mortgage money and CERB cash. If people are dumb enough to live this way, the stock market is happy to profit from their profligacy. Up she goes.

Also coming is a giant new stimulus package in the States, to replace an income support program which is about to expire. Now just a few months from the pivotal election, it’s in nobody’s political interests to make voters suffer. Central banks, for their part, will continue to buy up gobs of assets and keep rates in the ditch. Expect mortgage rates, for example, to be in the 2% range in Canada for the next three years.

Those low rates not only suck and cajole people into fat debts and unearned home ownership, they also fuel stocks. After all, when cash, CICs and bonds pay next to nothing, where else will money go to earn a decent return? If you don’t have enough to retire on in ten or 15 years, there’s little choice but to have equity exposure. GICs are safe, but you’ll have to develop a taste for KD and Canadian wine.

We must face facts. The world is upside down. In a normal recession people lose jobs, deplete their savings, suffer a big income drop and are forced to sell their homes, which decline in value. In this downturn almost nobody’s working, savings are rising, incomes are going up, debt anxieties falling and real estate is plumping. Oh yeah, and the stock market just gained 49%.

More evidence you should never get your investment advice from the media. Or the comment section. Especially that.

 

186 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.20 at 2:32 pm

Karen’s a meteorologist ?

#2 AnotherGuy on 07.21.20 at 2:38 pm

Isn’t this all just propped up by government handouts? What happens when those dry up and we have to face the reality of a historic unemployment rate? It doesn’t seem likely that all jobs that were eliminated will return.

#3 nicklabixa on 07.21.20 at 2:38 pm

first, been awhile, just talked to a close friend, shopping at the outlet, apparently not much people.

#4 Bartman on 07.21.20 at 2:39 pm

Sounds like a house of cards to me!

#5 Jesus on 07.21.20 at 2:41 pm

First

#6 Jerome The Printing Press Powell on 07.21.20 at 2:41 pm

I will keep printing and warping.

Fundamentals mean zero and the markets are a casino.

Enjoy.

#7 Karen on 07.21.20 at 2:44 pm

The Stall Out: Why the Post-COVID Economic Recovery Will Be Troubled

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WZRcdFTqmM&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2b-Xii61Jbs45z9IHyW2mATokjOVyBmwWrInBKVU50LWMacnAUhD0De5s

#8 NotLegalAdvice on 07.21.20 at 2:47 pm

What y’all think about 10 year mortgage at 2.8% (10 year) vs. 2.12% (5 year)? Which is better? Will rates go up after 3 years??

#9 Faron on 07.21.20 at 2:53 pm

3 of 2

…All the anti-vaxers, socons and F150 AR-15 deplorables just got punked by their grand poohbah.

…you’ll have to develop a taste for KD and Canadian wine.

Ha, those are classic lines Garth.

Climate change should take care of the Canadian wine problem. Maybe we should roll back that carbon tax after all?

#10 TurnerNation on 07.21.20 at 2:53 pm

There always will be something dangled over our heads no – freedom ain’t coming back without a new price.
Overseas wars seem passé. If you don’t realise this WW3 is being fought hand-to-hand on our streets, on social media people report being yelled at – still – in our local towns. As was our forum host.

So it goes like this: Just 2 more weeks guys. Two more weeks of shutting down your business, given up on rights of assembly and travel, and we can flatten that curve!! Hang in there. And look into the Infrared thermometer with facial recognition. Smile.

https://www.biometricupdate.com/202002/telpo-launches-contactless-facial-biometric-thermometer-solution-for-disease-control

Say I wonder what Musk’s stellites are doing up there, do you think they’d let your or I launch satellites and rockets over everyones’ sensitive airspace? What is his global internet grid to be tracking, we already have blazing fast internet with blanket coverage? Two more weeks – so that hospitals won’t be overwhelmed, remember.

#11 Ace Goodheart on 07.21.20 at 2:56 pm

I guess we have to think outside of the box in the current situation.

We are used to thinking, when we want to buy something, how much money do I need? And then you just save up.

That appears to no longer be the case.

The new situation is “how much can I borrow” and that amount increases all the time.

What we have, is a situation where something other than money is becoming “currency”. How much money you have, is becoming meaningless. You can’t afford anything, anyway.

We are entering into a “social credit” system of purchasing power.

If you want a house, for example, and you earn say 150K per year, and you have saved up say 200K, you head out to participate in a bidding war on an aged Toronto three bedder being sold by an estate. Asking price is 1.2 million. It will go for 1.6 easily, probably more.

None of the bidders have any actual money. No one has 1.6 million dollars. It doesn’t matter. How much you have is not important.

What is important, is your social credit. How much can you borrow? The borrowed amount doesn’t matter either, because you will never pay it back. Interest on it is so negligible, that it makes no difference. You will hardly notice it.

The winning bidder will be the person who is able to borrow the most, based on their “social credit” score. This is kind of scary.

This means, where you work, and your career, are very important for developing enough “credit” to own a house. Self employed? Forget it. You will never qualify for enough mortgage to win a bidding war.

Employed in an industry vulnerable to pandemics? Again, go away. You will not qualify.

Are you a government employee? Six credit points! Good for you. Your pension will always pay, and you likely cannot be easily fired.

Work in a government department that is not susceptible to the winds of political change? Another ten points for you!

This is the system we are developing.

This is the “new currency”.

How much social credit do you have? That determines how big a mortgage you can get, and will allow you to be the high bidder on a house.

This is literally happening right now, in Toronto. Money means nothing anymore. It is all about how much you are able to borrow.

#12 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.21.20 at 2:59 pm

I guess the quintessential question is what do we believe is the most likely to protect us against the ongoing inflation , stock gains or real estate. I get that our gracious host believes there will be no significant inflation ,however my personal experience is a bit different ( food prices have gone insane at least here in the GVA and I’m told in GTA as well) .Clearly the cost of owning a home will go up to finance the cash flow of governments, if HST is raised it will drive more of the economy underground a.s.o. Given that home ownership and food are the biggest ticket items in a working person’s budget I fail to see how that will not be inflationary, maybe not rampant but definitely I would guess a minimum 5% . Decision time on what to do with the investment money (discretionary income ) buy more stock or get a newer home.

#13 The West on 07.21.20 at 3:00 pm

Main street is dying, Wall Street is thriving.

Good to see the pensioners have saved themselves on the backs of the citizen economy.

It promises to end well.

#14 Millennial 1%er on 07.21.20 at 3:02 pm

#18 NotLegalAdvice

>What y’all think about 10 year mortgage at 2.8% (10 year) vs. 2.12% (5 year)? Which is better? Will rates go up after 3 years??

Wait, you’re not planning to pay off your mortgage in 5 years?

#15 Mr. Merlin The Wizard on 07.21.20 at 3:17 pm

Garth, what do you mean by “unearned home ownership”? Can you explain what earned home ownership would be? How would someone in Toronto making the median family household income buy a house in an “earned” fashion these days? Is inheritance earned? What about winning the genetic lottery, having your parents buy a high SAT score and get you into Harvard, and then off to Google where you make $250k a year? Is that an earned income? I’m struggling to see what the difference is these days between earned and unearned. Maybe you can help the wizard.

Sure. When you can afford a home without indenturing yourself and putting your family at financial risk, you have earned the right to proceed. – Garth

#16 Love_The_Cottage on 07.21.20 at 3:21 pm

#8 NotLegalAdvice on 07.21.20 at 2:47 pm
10 year mortgage at 2.8% (10 year) vs. 2.12% (5 year)?
_______
Don’t pay either one. Assuming you have a decent amount of equity built in your home (and if you visit this site you should) then negotiate HARD with the banks. Shop around. Check multiple places. Don’t take the first offer. Don’t take the second. The banks need your business, my nephew got the rate down a lot.

#17 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.21.20 at 3:26 pm

14 Millennial 1%er on 07.21.20 at 3:02 pm
Wait, you’re not planning to pay off your mortgage in 5 years?
=====
That was funny.
Personally still looking forward to the generational mortgage ( 50 -100 years) ..I mean my millenial children need to inherit something,right ? Nothing better than a mortgage to bind the family ties!

#18 Dolce Vita on 07.21.20 at 3:28 pm

“Next, look at the retail sales. In Canada they zoomed higher…”

In which Universe or Time Continuum did THAT happen?

Apples to apples and not seasonal m/m gains:

Retail Trade May 2020 vs. May 2019:

-18.4%

————————

“Car sales soared 66%.”

“Car sales” May 2020 vs. May 2019:

Motor vehicle and parts dealers -39.3% (overall)

and its Sub Sectors…

New car dealers -44.4%
Used car dealers -34.5
Other motor vehicle dealers -13.9
Automotive parts, accessories and tire stores -6.2%

YET another BIG hole to dig out from under Canada.

————————

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200721/t002a-eng.htm

#19 Dolce Vita on 07.21.20 at 3:40 pm

THE ONLY THING that did indeed ZOOM HIGHER in Retail Trade was, drum roll:

Cannabis Stores May 2020 vs. May 2019:

+116.3%

Oh, and Convenience Stores did OK too (as Cdns. do “duck and cover” not far from home to pick up comfort food & the other slathered in grease/fat/sugar offerings that they have):

Convenience stores May 2020 vs. May 2019:

+22.1%

——————————

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200721/t002a-eng.htm

#20 jerry on 07.21.20 at 3:40 pm

Why is the S&P the gold standard to pay attention to rather than the djia or tsx?

Broadness and depth. Like me. – Garth

#21 Faron on 07.21.20 at 3:43 pm

If anyone feels like laughing at the stock market right now, look up hipster_trader on twitter.

Hipster @Hipster_Trader 1h Kanye West should find a SPAC to take YEEZY public

Hipster @Hipster_Trader 4h This week’s Tesla 3500 calls only -4%. Value opportunity

Hipster @Hipster_Trader Jul 16 Investors buying the dip in anticipation of a vaccine headline

#22 NSNG on 07.21.20 at 3:47 pm

I’m wondering if the sudden urge to mandate mask wearing is because only about half the population was wearing masks and this sends a very strong visual signal from the non-mask wearers that they weren’t buying what the government was selling.

If the coach ‘loses the room’ as they say in sports, it will be the coach that is gone soon, not the players.

If you are not a mask wearer and you walk into a place where the majority are wearing masks, you can actually see the wheels turn as they scan you with their eyes

I had to dip into a hospital to drop something off. No mask. There was a guy waiting in the emergency area and he saw me and you could see the panic forming. He looked at me. Then he made a quick glance over to the security booth, and then back to me. You could tell he was calculating whether or not he was going to see his first live-action Karen apocalypse.

By the time he looked back at me I was already on the way out the door and enjoying a good chuckle

#23 Brian Ripley on 07.21.20 at 3:48 pm

“Those low rates not only suck and cajole people into fat debts and unearned home ownership…” Garth

In Canada total household debt and mortgage debt is dropping (or flattening out if you prefer) on 1Q 2020 data; chart here:

http://www.chpc.biz/household-debt.html

On the chart are plots as well for Net Trade, GDP and FDI (Foreign Direct Investment). GDP has crashed with Covid 19 and Net Trade and FDI remain chronically negative… the latter for over 20 years.

Judging from what is happening in the U.S. this summer I suspect school openings in Canada are going to be fraught with anxiety and some communities are not going to be able to keep their citizens out of the health care system.

I expect household debt levels to continue dropping as families set priorities and repair balance sheets… either quickly by debt liquidation or by the slow drip method of monthly payments if cash flow is present.

I expect savings accounts will be built up.

#24 Andrewski on 07.21.20 at 3:52 pm

Here’s a Canadian “Karen” for you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=n5kgNM_Fr4s&feature=emb_logo

#25 -=withwings=- on 07.21.20 at 3:54 pm

We are used to thinking, when we want to buy something, how much money do I need? And then you just save up.

That appears to no longer be the case.

That was never the case. banks, lending and leases have been around since at least egyptian times. every culture invents some sort of fiat money (wood circles, sea shells, papyrus paper, whatever) to use for leverage. My grandma bought a washing machine paid weekly that was over 50 years ago.

society, and status therein, has always been decided by borrowing capacity. its one of the hallmarks of a distinct society.

#26 the Jaguar on 07.21.20 at 3:54 pm

Rarely would the Jaguar disagree with Garth, and then only from a position of deep respect, but my own opinion differs on two points made in today’s post.

As much as it pains me to acknowledge any accomplishment of those who dwell west of the Rocky Mountain Range (BC) given their inclination towards piracy, swindling, and other forms of extortion and thievery, they do produce a few tasty wines in the BC Interior region. It’s a shame their character hasn’t been improved by that same application of hard work.

I would also have to disagree with this bit: ” The guy may have done the correct thing, but he’s political toast as a result.”
The tweets and highly biased media reports are one thing, but there is also a great deal hiding in plain sight that nobody is talking about. It’s a variation of the ‘shiny object syndrome’ where a distraction tactic often has an unforeseen outcome. Just a Jag opinion, of course. I’ll say no more as I would not wish to ‘bait’ those whose heads explode in rage at any reference to he who cannot be named.

That golden retriever trying to make eye contact with the photographer is classic behaviour of the breed. They are so needy. And never leave your hamburger unattended in their presence.

#27 DownToFinance on 07.21.20 at 3:56 pm

Bought a car on the weekend. The dealership, which looked like it didn’t have enough money to fix the almost caved in roof, gave me about an 18% discount on the purchase price of a 2 year old lease return. Get it while the gettin’s good.

#28 Leftover on 07.21.20 at 4:10 pm

Sure, free money will goose stock markets and house prices.

Until it doesn’t. The problem is, at least for mortgages & houses, these are term agreements that expire. Usually about 3 to 5 years from now. Guess what? 3 to 5 years from now things could look a lot different (just like they do today compared to 2016). The USA might be the only country that gets away with QE for any sustained period. Germany maybe but then there’s that pesky EU.

For a small country like Canada global competition for debt issuance is going to get intense in a couple of years and you know what that means, right? Higher interest rates.

And we all know what that means.

#29 Linda on 07.21.20 at 4:11 pm

Speaking of elections, whither Canada? We have a minority government whose pandemic largesse has added some $343 billion to our collective debt. No surprise that many voters currently see JT as their personal fairy godfather, so seems like an opportunity to turn the current minority government into a majority, non? So if a vaccine does become readily available, will an election follow shortly thereafter?

#30 MF on 07.21.20 at 4:14 pm

2 NSNG on 07.21.20 at 3:47 pm

If you were in a hospital you should be wearing a mask under the best of times. For all you know that gentlemen you mentioned might have been going through some sort of chemo therapy or radiation therapy. Those patients have every right to be worried about secondary infections. I put you in the wrong there. Stop politicizing a public heath recommendation, be responsible, and suck it up like the rest of us.

MF

#31 Dolce Vita on 07.21.20 at 4:20 pm

Actually Garth, the EU Recovery package centres on a €390bn programme of grants to member states hardest hit by the pandemic. Italy and Spain are expected to be the main recipients (not exactly a lot if you are Italy which has paid €200 billion into the fund already, and got €209 billion from the recovery package).

A further €360bn in low-interest loans will be available to members of the bloc. On that there is a threshold mark where reasons have to be provided for the extra money.

So NOT SO FAST on the CDN $1.2 Trillion EU largesse, NOT the same largesse as seen in Canada with CERB & other such programs where in general they are outright handouts of cash with little or no accountability thus far.

——————————

Throughout the negotiations the STRANGEST behaviour of all would be by what EU MSM call the “Frugal 5” that OPPOSED such large EU Recovery package numbers & that wanted to have a say how the money was spent by EU countries receiving the cash/loans (Team Leader of that cabal was PM Rutte from the Netherlands):

Sweden, Denmark, Austria, Finland & Holland (total population 40% of Italia).

Basically little dickwad EU countries that love the tariff free €€€ benefits of selling their stuff into large population countries like Italia, Germany, France and Spain BUT with NONE of the responsibility to other EU citizens that they sell to in times of crisis.

At one point listening to PM Rutte spin his BS frugal yarn at the negotiations, Pres. Macron slammed his fist on the conference room table in anger. I won’t bother to tell you what Hungary’s Orban or Poland’s PM said (not nice).

As for Deutschland’s thoughts, I think this photo says it all:

https://i.imgur.com/ZV4G7tj.jpg

(the sad sack tall black mask dude is PM Rutte consoled by Pres. of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, the other smiling black mask dude is Italia’s PM Conte).

I had to laugh when I saw Ursula consoling PM Rutte in the above photo ’cause minutes before there was this photo of her and President of the European Council Charles Michel (kudos to Michel, a Belgian, he put the deal together that got approved):

https://i.imgur.com/TmhricH.jpg

Good to know that France and Germany have Spain and Italia’s backs in times of crisis. Yes indeed, good to know.

LONG LIVE the European Union, save a few dickwad countries (all of which come to Italia’s beaches every Summer in the droves and insist on nude sunbathing…don’t blame them though, I mean look where they live).

#32 O caNnABis! on 07.21.20 at 4:20 pm

Its 420 duDES . pARTY!!!

#33 Your own analysis on 07.21.20 at 4:27 pm

Hey Garth thanks for your post today and past posts.
You forgot one very important piece, a person should stop Self analysing. Ha ha
Every day I say this cannot happen because……
So many things to worry about.
I am trying to stop thinking about the noise.
Stop worrying about Government debt, unemployment, vacant office towers, rising Covid, missed mortgages
Crazy Americans and crazy politics everywhere.
And of course all the doomers on here.
Huge market swings every day. And on and on to many to list.

Now Everyone go back and read this blog during the 2008 crisis and then ask did I worry about the future or stay invested?

So I raise my cup and say cheers to Garth for informing us about risks but keeping us invested.

Have a great day !

#34 april on 07.21.20 at 4:31 pm

According to Eitel anaylics and Ross Kay, real estate in Canada is going down and will continue into 2021/22 at least. Looking at about 30% drop overall before the bottom. Don’t be fooled by the jump in sales right now… apparently some people who qualified earlier in the yr are now closing.

#35 Jake on 07.21.20 at 4:35 pm

No gold bug here, but does gold and the S&P hitting highs make sense? Isn’t gold the hedge against a doomed economy?

The economy is not doomed and gold is not an appropriate asset for 99% of the population. Own the TSX in an index fund and you have all the PM exposure you need. – Garth

#36 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.21.20 at 4:36 pm

Good news on the European front, too.
After heart wrenching 5 days of negotiations, the EU has come up with an historic agreement to spend 2 trillion on rebuilding their Covid ravaged economies.
Italy and Spain are the main beneficiaries.
The EU’s “together we stand” philosophy is in sharp contrast to the “divide and conquer” politics of the United States, lead by a leader whose America First policies are isolating the US from the rest of the World.
Trudeau has a good relationship with Merkel and Macron, therefore a united and strong Europe bodes well for Canada’s exports.
Look at the picture of the “Leaders of the Free World”, huddling together, all wearing FACE MASKS.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/21/economy/eu-stimulus-coronavirus/index.html

#37 TurnerNation on 07.21.20 at 4:39 pm

#30 MF I dropped by two ERs in past few years. Middle of winter. Flu season. Not one doctor, nurse, employee or visitor was wearing a mask. Why when they see the worst of the worst in sick people – at the best of times as you said? A serious question to those in the medical field who might be able to answer it.

#38 Henry Makow on 07.21.20 at 4:40 pm

DELETED

#39 Looking up on 07.21.20 at 4:44 pm

“Debt anxieties falling” -don’t know about that.

Went to the family business gas station in Toronto suburbia to gas up today. I asked “how’s business”, she replied “horrible”. (I thought she was going to start crying). Then went to my dry cleaner same thing “how’s business” the reply “absolutely horrible”. And yet people are bidding insane amounts to buy junk houses in Toronto (maybe that’s the evaporating debt anxiety you’re talking about.)

We’ll see…..

Refer to yesterday’s post. – Garth

#40 Howard on 07.21.20 at 4:59 pm

Aaaaaaand….as expected.

The whining to grant amnesty to CERB frauds has already begun.

https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/ep45ze/cerb-repayments-could-cause-a-poverty-crisis-advocates-say

Many low-income or homeless Canadians applied and received the CERB benefit without qualifying. Advocates say the government should give them amnesty.

#41 MaggieB on 07.21.20 at 5:05 pm

#37 TurnerNation

Flu shots are mandatory for hospital employees.

#42 Dave on 07.21.20 at 5:07 pm

I have all my money in GICs right now. I cannot afford store bought KD or wine so I make all my KD and wine from scratch. I wish I had some cash on March 23 and I would have bought some stocks when everything went into the kitty litter bin. Oh well. Better safe than sorry. Got to go now and grind some wheat into flour to make the noodles.

#43 Renter on 07.21.20 at 5:12 pm

Garth sir, does that mean the House prices will not normalize as CMHC or this esteemed blog predicted. CB and Govt will keep plumping the real estate

Which market? – Garth

#44 paulo on 07.21.20 at 5:16 pm

Perfect Storm and the Perfect Time to Clean up the Real Estate Mess:
1)amend banking laws to permit 30 fixed rate loans.
2) adopt the us model for interest expense deduction on principal residence.
3) upon tabling the next federal budget Terminate the exemption on personal residence moving forward.
4) Grandfather rights to existing home owners with a one time choice to keep the exemption or play under the new deal to be decided when filing the annual federal tax return
5) The money/revenue stream to be applied against federal debt
6) should be sufficient to make any additional tax or other diddling around not required, we may actually keep a few doctors and entrepreneurs in the country
7) this would Ice the stupid real estate mess, terminate speculators and likely drop prices 20% out of the gate
and make housing a place to live not a gas bag ponzi game as it is now
8) and no the goverment pulling the trigger on this would likely win again by a landslide residential real estate owners actually only represent 1 in 5 votes………

#45 Dolce Vita on 07.21.20 at 5:19 pm

As much of the data I post by StatCan ends with me saying:

“Yet another big hole to dig our from under.”

I remain confident in Canada and its economy rebounding after COVID.

Throughout the many years on this planet I have read over and over again about how this and that is going to affect Canada in the worst way.

And yet, like the The Little Engine That Could, Canada keeps chugging along despite the naysayers, prophets of doom and keep posting impressive GDP gains even vs. other developed nations, year after year.

Have faith Canada, Andrà Tutto Bene.*

—————————

*Of course he says that fully expecting a deadly 2nd wave pandemic that will kill everyone and everything (as do most Cdns) making the Justinian Plague look like a walk in the park, a family barbecue, one of Sail Away’s Au Naturel picnics.

-Debbie Downer + Chicken Little.

#46 Oracle of Ottawa on 07.21.20 at 5:26 pm

Allow me to throw in my 2 cents on this gold rally. There are 3 main points.
1) Many feel this rally is baseless and the shit is going to hit the fan in the next quarter or two;
2) The U.S. treasury has extended themselves financially to the point where the U.S. dollar is headed to peso territory; and
3) To pay for all the stimulus, the Gov’t will have to print more money or raise taxes. Gold is a hedge against inflation.

Gold is an emotional, speculative buy, not a rational one. How many times do we have to watch this same movie play out? People buy, they never sell. Most regret it. – Garth

#47 Ignoramus on 07.21.20 at 5:29 pm

“develop a taste for KD and Canadian wine.”

———————————————————
Doesn’t the cheese curdle when you pour in the wine?

#48 Masks really do save lives on 07.21.20 at 5:38 pm

#30 MF on 07.21.20 at 4:14 pm
2 NSNG on 07.21.20 at 3:47 pm

If you were in a hospital you should be wearing a mask under the best of times. For all you know that gentlemen you mentioned might have been going through some sort of chemo therapy or radiation therapy. Those patients have every right to be worried about secondary infections. I put you in the wrong there. Stop politicizing a public heath recommendation, be responsible, and suck it up like the rest of us.

MF

///////////

Don’t lower yourself to engage the Qognoscenti. They’ve tapped into something tooooooo big to share with smaller, less tuned-in minds.

#49 Faron on 07.21.20 at 5:38 pm

#39 Looking up on 07.21.20 at 4:44 pm

“Debt anxieties falling” -don’t know about that.

Went to the family business gas station in Toronto suburbia to gas up today. I asked “how’s business”, she replied “horrible”. (I thought she was going to start crying). Then went to my dry cleaner same thing “how’s business” the reply “absolutely horrible”. And yet people are bidding insane amounts to buy junk houses in Toronto (maybe that’s the evaporating debt anxiety you’re talking about.)

We’ll see…..

Refer to yesterday’s post. – Garth

I think it’s easy to forget that Canada’s RE market isn’t big enough to have a meaningful effect on the US or other non/CDN equity markets especially insofar as CDN banks are capitalized well enough to handle a plop in house prices.

Plus, the stock market does not equal the economy and vice versa. You can have the major bounce in equities that we’ve seen and still watch mom and pop business suffer for a couple years.

Finally, maybe the business owners are sweating it because they live in TO and overpaid for a pile of sticks — uh, I mean their house. If their business model includes a large enough income to make payments on a $1,000,000 mortgage, their margins were probably slim to begin with.

#50 yvr_lurker on 07.21.20 at 5:39 pm

#40

Aaaaaaand….as expected.

The whining to grant amnesty to CERB frauds has already begun.

https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/ep45ze/cerb-repayments-could-cause-a-poverty-crisis-advocates-say

Many low-income or homeless Canadians applied and received the CERB benefit without qualifying. Advocates say the government should give them amnesty.

—————————————————-
Indeed a problem, but all the while the Gov’t effectively gave amnesty to the airline industry and their shareholders by not forcing them to issue full refunds to the vast number of people who are holding essentially worthless travel vouchers. Looks like social welfare for the corporate class here.

#51 Renter on 07.21.20 at 5:40 pm

#43 Renter on 07.21.20 at 5:12 pm

Which market? – Garth

Sorry did not mention. I was curious and on the sidelines for years in GTA. Northern suburbs specifically. Waited for long for the rule of 90 to apply

#52 Dolce Vita on 07.21.20 at 5:41 pm

“Many low-income or homeless Canadians applied and received the CERB benefit without qualifying. Advocates say the government should give them amnesty.” -Garth

Agree with the Advocates.

The disadvantaged or have nots, for whatever reason they are or have become that, should NOT be allowed to fall victim to what COVID has done to Canada. They are the least equipped to weather that storm.

If we deny them that simple mercy, act of kindness as a wealthy nation, then we have no heart caring only about money, and become a give no quarter people to its most vulnerable rather than giving thanks for what we have been given and/or have achieved/fought hard for in life and sharing just a bit of that.

Not everyone gets a fair shake in life no matter how hard they try.

Time to see charity thru.

#53 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 07.21.20 at 5:46 pm

Why is the price of gold going up? The same reason as why the price of Tesla stock or Vancouver houses goes up. More buyers than sellers.

#54 Cto on 07.21.20 at 5:51 pm

#11 Ace Goodheart

Economy truly based on what you can borrow.
Debt is the new currency!!!!

100% bang on Ace!!!!
Garth, you should read Aces post a couple more times…

This clearly is the basis of this economy and financial system. It is different this time, or it has been different since 2009. Those that have realized this 10 years ago ha ve benefited immensely!

#55 Piano_Man87 on 07.21.20 at 5:54 pm

“develop a taste for KD and Canadian wine.”

———————————————————
Doesn’t the cheese curdle when you pour in the wine?

—————————————

There’s real cheese in KD?

#56 cramar on 07.21.20 at 6:02 pm

“The world is upside down. In a normal recession people lose jobs, deplete their savings, suffer a big income drop and are forced to sell their homes, which decline in value. In this downturn almost nobody’s working, savings are rising, incomes are going up, debt anxieties falling and real estate is plumping. Oh yeah, and the stock market just gained 49%.”

Yes, short term! But going forward 2021 & 22, the chickens should come home to roost. Normal will return. Not all jobs will come back. People will have even less savings. Incomes for many will drop (supply and demand), people with even more debt than 2019, housing will finally match reality (defaults and forclosures, condo crash), and lo and behold reality will finally hit the stock market. If market valuation depends on profitability, then most companies will be less profitable in a recessionary economy for the foreseeable future.

#57 Blacksheep on 07.21.20 at 6:04 pm

Paulo,

8) and no the goverment pulling the trigger on this would likely win again by a landslide residential real estate owners actually only represent 1 in 5 votes………
——————————————–
I have always read, well over 60% of pop. own RE in Canada and I’m thinking most of these people vote.

That is why your suggestions, 1-7, are dead in the water…

#58 Orange Man....Orange on 07.21.20 at 6:09 pm

Third, Trump just wore a mask. He tweeted and used Insta Monday to say this was the “patriotic” thing to do. Amazing. So a river’s been crossed. All the anti-vaxers, socons and F150 AR-15 deplorables just got punked by their grand poohbah. The guy may have done the correct thing, but he’s political toast as a result. He lost the centre long ago. Now he’s ratted on the right.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Sorry Garth, Trump probably picked up support from the Dems. Classic high ground manuever. His base understands how he plays the game, get it and laugh at everyone who doesn’t get him. No votes lost on the right.

Once you understand that Trump’s persuasion game is about pacing, high ground manuevers, contrast and visual imagery you’ll realize that he’s very, very good.

Contrast that with the Dems whose persuasion game is game is intimidation and bullying.

Trump in a landslide.

#59 Wrk.dover on 07.21.20 at 6:09 pm

Those low rates not only suck and cajole people into fat debts and unearned home ownership, they also fuel stocks.

———————————

So I will buy stock in the company that has borrowed the most money and plans to borrow yet more!

Kind of hard to pin point that target, but when I do maybe I should use borrowed money, so if it tanks, I can stiff the same system.

This keeps getting more and more realistic. Realistic Brand…is Radio Shack still a thing?

#60 MF on 07.21.20 at 6:13 pm

37 TurnerNation on 07.21.20 at 4:39 pm

Are there any cardiovascular surgeons who smoke?

Do all GI specialists all eat 6-8 servings of fruits and vegetables every day and avoid red meat?

Do all orthopaedic surgeons workout?

There’s your answer. Not hard to figure out.

MF

#61 CERBNation on 07.21.20 at 6:15 pm

37 TurnerNation on 07.21.20 at 4:39 pm
#30 MF I dropped by two ERs in past few years. Middle of winter. Flu season. Not one doctor, nurse, employee or visitor was wearing a mask. Why when they see the worst of the worst in sick people – at the best of times as you said? A serious question to those in the medical field who might be able to answer it..
…..
Because they’ve been vaccinated……. keep digging that rabbit hole of paranoia

#62 CL on 07.21.20 at 6:20 pm

“Next, look at the retail sales. In Canada they zoomed higher by 19% in May month/month and it looks like June delivered a 25% gain. Car sales soared 66%. Impressive and probably fueled by a heady mix of pent-up demand, deferred mortgage money and CERB cash. If people are dumb enough to live this way, the stock market is happy to profit from their profligacy. Up she goes.”

What a sad state of affairs when people are rewarded for bad behavior. There is no point in saving or doing the right things such as not swallowing debt that you can’t afford to carry. Governments will reward this. If this didn’t stop the real estate and spending stupidity then nothing!! ever will. Period.

#63 Penny Henny on 07.21.20 at 6:22 pm

#34 april on 07.21.20 at 4:31 pm
According to Eitel anaylics and Ross Kay, real estate in Canada is going down and will continue into 2021/22 at least.-
//////////////

Ross Kay has been wrong for so many years even the “Real Mark’ stop believing him.
Ross Kay called the bottom in the GTA some day in May 2013.

#64 Drake 2.0 on 07.21.20 at 6:28 pm

Virus Outbreak Recipe:

1. Start with Protest Marches and Gatherings
2. Add 2 weeks
3. combine pre-symptomaic with Canada Day holiday activities
4. wait 3 weeks

#65 Dolce Vita on 07.21.20 at 6:29 pm

#36 Ponzius Pilatus

It was good news, agreed (CDN $1.2 Trillion, not 2).

The masks, besides setting an example, there was good reason for them (summit held in Brussels), July 20 new COVID cases:

*also includes July 19 new cases.

Spain 4581*
France 2080*
Sweden 767
Germany 642
United Kingdom 580 (lower than July 19ths, 726)
Belgium 388
Italy 190

It’s not over yet and Italia for example, has an economy fully open since June 3rd save very large gatherings (e.g., Serie A football matches, damn, no San Siro for me this year).

Have a care with the reopenings Canada. Do like Italia did, step by step. It took us from April 14th to June 3rd to FULLY reopen INCL. Int’l travel.

Patience Canada.

And for the Love of God, do not open yourselves up to International Travel. That Italian number of 190 above, 40% of that due to International “visitors”, this in the last week or so in Italia:

– 28/70 “+Pakistan migrants” at a Calabrian port.
– 2 +Serbs infect many in FVG & Veneto regions.
– 48 NGO “+migrants/refugees” in Jesolo Beach.
– 36 +Bangladeshis plane f/Dhaka in Rome, +200 aboard in forced quarantine.

etc.

Keep your borders closed Canada. You will end up hospitalizing and/or quarantining them all as Italia has had to do and that can/will cause spread.

#66 greg on 07.21.20 at 6:35 pm

You have always maintained that the real estate market was being fuelled by domestic buyers. I do not believe that domestic buyers are shelling out the 2 million dollars on average that sellers are getting in the most popular areas of Toronto. I know you don’t want to hear it but I suspect with the uncertain state of affairs in Hong Kong, the Chinese are looking for a safe place to park their money.

There is an effective block on foreign buying through the non-resident tax. Try again. – Garth

#67 Dave on 07.21.20 at 6:41 pm

Cold War with China is coming soon.

Canada will be hit hard and offer little offense.

#68 T on 07.21.20 at 6:42 pm

#22 NSNG on 07.21.20 at 3:47 pm
I’m wondering if the sudden urge to mandate mask wearing is because only about half the population was wearing masks and this sends a very strong visual signal from the non-mask wearers that they weren’t buying what the government was selling.

If the coach ‘loses the room’ as they say in sports, it will be the coach that is gone soon, not the players.

If you are not a mask wearer and you walk into a place where the majority are wearing masks, you can actually see the wheels turn as they scan you with their eyes

I had to dip into a hospital to drop something off. No mask. There was a guy waiting in the emergency area and he saw me and you could see the panic forming. He looked at me. Then he made a quick glance over to the security booth, and then back to me. You could tell he was calculating whether or not he was going to see his first live-action Karen apocalypse.

By the time he looked back at me I was already on the way out the door and enjoying a good chuckle

————

Very ignorant and disappointing story, true or not. Give your head a shake.

#69 Ed on 07.21.20 at 6:43 pm

Things will likely turn out ok, but it seems that’s already priced in. Is there any market valuation so high that you wouldn’t buy?

Buying at high valuations just hoping they ride even higher on a flood of dumb money seems more like speculation than sensible investing to me.

I’m much more concerned about the market now than at the March lows. Sadly, it’s probably early to exit given the momentum of the herd at the moment.

#70 T on 07.21.20 at 6:51 pm

#64 Penny Henny on 07.21.20 at 6:22 pm
#34 april on 07.21.20 at 4:31 pm
According to Eitel anaylics and Ross Kay, real estate in Canada is going down and will continue into 2021/22 at least.-
//////////////

Ross Kay has been wrong for so many years even the “Real Mark’ stop believing him.
Ross Kay called the bottom in the GTA some day in May 2013.

————

But Ross has all the secret sauce data proving 2013 was the peak across Canada… that no other organization has access to. But for a small fee you can join his program of him telling you it’s a bad time to buy a house, all the time.

Where is Real Mark anyways? I almost forgot about him. And where has smoking man been?

#71 Nonplused on 07.21.20 at 6:51 pm

Trump was in a VA hospital! Not even the POTUS gets in a VA hospital without a mask theses days! Also he is on Hydroxychloroquine which may or may work but it’s probably better than nothing.

Anyway it’ll be an interesting election for sure. If this Antifa stuff keeps going I’m guessing they will need the national guard to keep the polling stations open and accessible. People will die, some of them at the hands of armed republicans intent on voting and some at the hands of the police and many at the hands of Antifa. And I think people misunderestimate Trump’s chances. It could turn out that after a long summer of riots and looting that the voters will swing hard right. People are getting sick of this stuff. And trust me for every one person out there that thinks it’s a good idea to “defund the police” there are 99 that think that’s the dumbest idea they have ever heard. The media is just propagating all this idiocracy because it sells ads.

So my money is on Trump in what will be one of the most violent elections in US history. Grab the popcorn.

#72 Joe on 07.21.20 at 6:52 pm

Hi Garth, you forgot to mention real estate continues to increase in value and maintain strength. Positive all around blog today but you missed mentioning real estate. Not sure why but you did.

Read it again. – Garth

#73 Enoch on 07.21.20 at 6:55 pm

WAR it’s all that’s left to do.
It’s about time. Clean the slate and start fresh. Ahhh like a good old war. Kills viruses, creates rebuild projects, population control and resets the clock. Used occasionally in the past but can be over done abit. It’s a delicate balance, but if administered correctly does quite a good job. Everyone knows it but No one really wants to say it.
Everyone at 7 pm Singing “ keep on looking on the bright side of life” as nuclear bombs rain down. Now that would be show to watch.

#74 april on 07.21.20 at 7:02 pm

Penny Henny #64 – Ross Kay called the bottom in 2016… and houses, at least in the Lower Mainland, have been in decline since then.Condos a different story though those prices are too now in decline. Along the way % rates continue to be lowered which causes these brief upward bumps in sales and prices but still lower than the previous lows. We know people in West Van and Van who cannot sell now without a loss.

#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.21.20 at 7:02 pm

#53 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 07.21.20 at 5:46 pm
Why is the price of gold going up? The same reason as why the price of Tesla stock or Vancouver houses goes up. More buyers than sellers.
————-
I’d say: more Greater Fools.

#76 Rainman on 07.21.20 at 7:04 pm

Hey Garth – great post, but the one error was that there are some decent BC wines to drink. :) I can be a wine snob too and love the old world stuff, but just sayin…

#77 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.21.20 at 7:04 pm

Dear Karen:

Math is just math. Sorry if facts don’t square with your feelz.

#78 Steven Nicolle on 07.21.20 at 7:15 pm

This whole post was done for you by Trump I am sure. Retail sales up 18% but what did you expect when everything was closed. Car sales up 66% wow how amazing when everything was closed. I gotta take my son to the dentist but booked till end of August. Does that mean their business is booming. No there are people who have waited to go to dentist like others needed to buy shoes but had to try them on first. So the stock market is up well of course it is. Business is booming but do not set the bar so low as to get excited about it. Vaccine don’t get excited. We will get a second wave then have herd immunity before a vaccine is distributed.

The stats are Canadian. Trump is American. Does that help? – Garth

#79 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.21.20 at 7:16 pm

The guy on the bike is named Karen?

Who knew?

#80 TurnerNation on 07.21.20 at 7:16 pm

#11 Ace Goodheart – hang that comment on your fridge everyone. That’s what this is. We got economicly bom’d. Everything else is a distraction. A good hoax keeping people off balance.
We are money. We are current/currency. Pass the defibrillator.

Three classes were shrunk into two as of March. Lower/Middle/Upper turned into Lower and UPPPA. Yes the UPPA class plays by the bankers’ rules. They take the mark and transact commerce. Like pets they will be rewarded with trinkets and shlock, afforded by cheap credit.

What comes next, when two classes become only one? Don’t ask…
Until then it’s fun fun fun.

Score: Bankers 2. People O.

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.20 at 7:17 pm

@#36 Ponzie Preamble
“Look at the picture of the “Leaders of the Free World”, huddling together, all wearing FACE MASKS.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/21/economy/eu-stimulus-coronavirus/index.html

++++
Curious me.
I opened the photo expecting hockey goalie masks on the leaders of the EU countries.
Tres deception……

#82 Do we have all the facts on 07.21.20 at 7:18 pm

The S&P 500 is a bit of a mystery to me.

Average year over year revenues of all members from June 2019 to June 2020 was down by 10.5%

Average year over year earnings of all members was down 44%.

The average net profit for the second quarter of 2020 is projected at 7.1%, a decline from 10.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019.

In spite of this negative trend the S&P 500 index is at an all time high.

I understand that an economic recovery is anticipated at some point but to me the current metrics to not suggest that the S&P 500 should be at an all time high.

Where would the S&P 500 Index be today if the Covid 19 virus had not occurred? 3,600, 4,000?

Does anyone have a reasonable explanation of what has occurred within the S&P 500 over the past four months?

Fiscal and monetary stimulus. Government spending and CB asset purchases. Forward-facing profit expectations. Bond refugee funds. Tech surge as stay-at-home companies boom. Pandemics are temporary. Never much doubt the March decline would be erased. No sane person thinks the US economy will not chalk up big growth in 2021. – Garth

#83 Sail Away on 07.21.20 at 7:19 pm

Wait WE owns $50M in real estate?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nationalpost.com/news/property-brothers-kielburgers-facing-scrutiny-over-we-organizations-50m-real-estate-empire/wcm/d6edd301-fa00-4e7b-a2ba-57c1c1300a20/amp/

Ah, probably no big deal. After all, a nonprofit can use property to uplift the human spirit, right? Right?

#84 lifeisgood on 07.21.20 at 7:20 pm

Here’s an interesting chart cpmparing Euro stocks and SP500…

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-H-HdjJxGAlw/XwNs6EAlhXI/AAAAAAAAaNQ/Y5XlumkWsBcEPVU488x2uF6GWB8mbs84gCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/SP500%2Bvs%2BStoxx.jpg

Euro stocks has done nothing since 1999 ! SP500 was up more then 100%.

My statement was Euro markets have outperformed in the last couple of months. Every investor should have Canadian, US and International exposure, including Europe and emerging markets in the East. Even you have no idea what will happen. – Garth

#85 Nonplused on 07.21.20 at 7:25 pm

#44 paulo on 07.21.20 at 5:16 pm
“2) adopt the us model for interest expense deduction on principal residence_
3) upon tabling the next federal budget Terminate the exemption on personal residence moving forward.”

Most people pay 4 times in interest expenses on their mortgage than they pay for the house. So I am not sure your proposals would increase tax revenues. Also I don’t understand this hatred so many people seem to have against the elderly who have owned a home for many years and are relying on the equity to pay for their old age home, which has gone up in price at least as much as their house has. It seems we have entered a phase in our social discourse where if we can’t all be rich, we must all be poor. If we can’t all win, we must all lose. If we can’t all be pretty, we must all be ugly. If we can’t all be tall, we must all be short. If we can’t all be smart, we must all be stupid. It’s sad if you ask me. And pessimistic. Just because you are poor now when you are young doesn’t mean you will always be poor, so remember any advocacy for taxing “the rich” means you are advocating taxing your future self. Smart move.

#86 jsto on 07.21.20 at 7:28 pm

“Sure. When you can afford a home without indenturing yourself and putting your family at financial risk, you have earned the right to proceed. – Garth”

Very, very few people can attest to that!!! Are you out of your mind? People are risking all to get some real estate!

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.20 at 7:29 pm

@#61 MF
“Are there any cardiovascular surgeons who smoke?”

+++
Great topic!
Are there any………
Brain surgeons who drink excessively?
Jockeys who eat horse meat?
Politicians who tell the truth?
Lick spittles who eat popcorn?
Protesters who work?
CBC reporters that are conservative?
Conspiracy theorists NOT on the internet?
Trumps with compassion?
Russian voters with a choice?
Blockbuster video stores left?
Affordable houses in major Canadian cities?
Topics that don’t offend karen?
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.

#88 chris james on 07.21.20 at 7:32 pm

Markets like certainty. They just got it.
he did it to himself

#89 Flop... on 07.21.20 at 7:42 pm

Hey Jaguar, did you see what Evan Siddall tweety birded the other day…

M46BC

“We urge homebuyers to exercise caution and be prepared for possible house price declines — tracking unemployment levels especially. Real estate agents, lenders and mortgage brokers can all help their clients by advising against excessive borrowing to buy houses.”

#90 Nonplused on 07.21.20 at 7:42 pm

#52 Dolce Vita on 07.21.20 at 5:41 pm

“Time to see charity thru.”

Since when did the government taking my money and giving it to someone else become charity? I give to charity voluntarily. And if some of these homeless people want to come by my place I have a whole lot of trees and bushes that need to be trimmed and I will gladly pay them $15/h cash since I know they probably won’t owe any taxes anyway. But the model the liberals are proposing is that people get my money for nothing and I have to trim my own yard and shovel my own snow. That doesn’t seem right to me.

#91 lifeisgood on 07.21.20 at 7:55 pm

“My statement was Euro markets have outperformed in the last couple of months. Every investor should have Canadian, US and International exposure, including Europe and emerging markets in the East. Even you have no idea what will happen. – Garth”

Where did I say that you were misleading readers ?

Obviously nobody knows what will happen.

Actually everyone in the comment section does. – Garth

#92 Sara (no longer Karen) on 07.21.20 at 7:56 pm

#78 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.21.20 at 7:04 pm
Dear Karen:

Math is just math. Sorry if facts don’t square with your feelz.

====================================
Hey Bytor The SLOW Dog,

You must have reading comprehension problems. I wrote that I find your commentary amusing. “Feelz” has nothing to do with it unless you are referring to your own hurt feelings due to my pointing out your lack of intelligence.

#93 Ken on 07.21.20 at 7:57 pm

I guess we all should get dogs……

Common coronavirus offers some protection against COVID…. carried by dogs…

I hope I was exposed as a kid with four great dogs!

#94 Mackenzid on 07.21.20 at 7:58 pm

http://youtu.be/R3_wSU1JnTE

Fast forward to the last few minutes… but it’s all fascinating

#95 Glory Hole on 07.21.20 at 8:08 pm

Those radical leftist govt folks on the other side of the mountains (BC to those in Prince Albert) are now proscribing how to manage that most joyous of all physical pleasures.
All the details here
https://bit.ly/3jqQ0Oc
Yes, they did proscribe “glory holes.”
Don’t let the kids see this.
I’m shocked I tell you, I’m shocked

#96 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 07.21.20 at 8:18 pm

Face the FACTS……exactly.

And Nothing’s wrong with KD and CADwine, it makes hair grow where its supposed to.

#97 jess on 07.21.20 at 8:21 pm

Former Morgan Stanley financial adviser charged with stealing $6 million from clients

============================
why trump is sounding “nicer” He sure needs ohio!

ohio speaker of house criminal charges laid -60m …

quid pro quo?
Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder was arrested Tuesday morning by federal officials on charges relating to a $60 million public corruption racketeering conspiracy case.
four others were also arrested: former Ohio Republican Party Chairman Matt Borges, Householder adviser Jeffrey Longstreth, and lobbyists Neil Clark and Juan Cespedes.
Householder is charged with accepting payments from the dark money group Generation Now for his personal benefit and to help advance his political career, in exchange for securing the passage of House Bill 6.At a press conference Tuesday afternoon, U.S. Attorney David DeVillers called it “the largest bribery and money laundering scheme ever perpetrated against the people of the state of Ohio.”

#98 Steven Nicolle on 07.21.20 at 8:30 pm

I realize that it just you sounded like Trump talking about the great rebound in the economy and of course the numbers were great on the Dow today. Like he says the virus will just disappear (eventually) obviously.

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.20 at 8:31 pm

Wellll
In these pc times the Edmonton Eskimos have decided to rebrand themselves.

““This is a very important day in the history of our football club,” began the long-faced lawyer Agrios. “The Edmonton Eskimos Football Club will be discontinuing the use of the word Eskimos in it.”

The politcally correct CFL football team from Edmonton would like to keep the moniker “EE”.

May I be the first to suggest…

The Edmonton Erased?

Re-writing history one day at a time.

#100 Calgary retiree on 07.21.20 at 8:34 pm

#31 Dolce Vita on 07.21.20 at 4:20 pm
——————————————–

Ah yes, Italy the perpetual welfare case of Europe. As usual, Italy and others, want a free ride paid for by the Netherlands, Germany and others. These countries are expected to pay for the financial mismanagement of Italy et al.

The European recovery fund will be 750 billion euros. This will cost the Netherlands 330 billion euros per year. Most of the money will go to Italy – who will blow through it like shit through a goose – because responsible financial management is an unknown concept in Italy.

Instead of being grateful for the financial support from countries like the Netherlands, the Dutch premier is being attacked as Dr No. I suppose it does not jibe with La Dolce Vita.

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.20 at 8:38 pm

@#93 Sara-dipity (no longer Easily Offended karen)

Is that a legal name change or just a pseudonym to slow down the trolls?

I believe “Fartzy” and “Crowdie” and “Elevator” are still up for grabs if you’re interested………

Are you allowed to predict the weather as “Sara-dipity” the meteorologist?

#102 Stan Brooks on 07.21.20 at 8:45 pm

To put things in perspective: Europe’s package is 700 billion Euros of which 390 billion grants, 310 billion loans to member states, that is for population of 448 millions (12 times ours), i.e. their package is 1 trillion loonie, while our deficit this year alone is 343 billion loonies for population of 38 millions. over 4 times their package per capita in this year’s budget alone.

Our employment participation rate is 56 %, theirs 73 %. There were minimum employment cuts there and nothing like half of the labour force depending on government handouts just to survive as here. You give people money here and they spent it on stupidities while it seems choosing not to pay their rents and obligations.

Let’s see what the deficit will be next year but due to lack of revenue (as of the high unemployment which is not 13 % as we choose to lie ourselves to and practically shut down economy and as of the entitlement and dependency on handouts culture ) we could be looking at 100-150 billions minimum just so ‘sustain’ the economy, i.e minimum growth, not meaningful recovery from the slump.

We basically boost spending through gigantic injection of freshly minted cash with our velocity of money not declining as in EU, while we have no savings practically.

Let’s see what the M2 numbers will be for this year but it probably will be in double digits increase while (let’s not forget the official propaganda) the ‘inflation’ will be minimum, in fact we probably will ‘report’ deflation.

Our household savings rate is 2 %, that of EU: 12 %.
Plus they have much better safety net, pensions and definitely health care.

In simple words: most likely the currency is doomed in which case no valuations makes sense as you are measuring stuff in trash.

Retirees on CPP could get generous 1 % increase while inflation of necessities will most likely be 6-8 times that. No country implemented stupid plan like our CERB that is practically impossible to control, in US they mailed checks to everyone, in EU they were far more restrictive, but again these are places with less total debt (public and private per capita) than us despite what the propaganda here tells you (they like to quote the ‘federal’ debt skipping public and provincial, municipal debts.)

Keep in mind – these 343 billions deficit this year alone were just to keep churning profit for the owners of this place in the form of ‘sustained’ spending which we can not afford.

In normal places people use their savings at times of emergency or go to the bank for a minimum loan, so the needed help from the government is much less.

We have no savings, have record debt and have to go much further in debt than others just to survive.

I would be very, very worried about our currency with the incompetents in power (socks boy, the french villa guy, really?) and while we can choose to lie to ourselves again that ‘we are the most prudent’ as we did in 2010 with the purchase of super bad mortgages from the banks, the facts speak differently and the wakening from that ‘prudent’ dream (or lie) could be very, very rude.

Cheers,

#103 Dirty Dan on 07.21.20 at 8:49 pm

#91 Nonplused on 07.21.20 at 7:42 pm
#52 Dolce Vita on 07.21.20 at 5:41 pm

“Time to see charity thru.”

Since when did the government taking my money and giving it to someone else become charity? … But the model the liberals are proposing is that people get my money for nothing…

1. It isn’t for nothing. Your money is helping to buy liberal votes, if that makes you feel any better.

2. They also use your money to pay off influencers https://globalnews.ca/news/5416713/elections-canada-paid-influencers/

3. Greaterfool tip, skip Dolt Vita’s posts.

#104 Flop... on 07.21.20 at 9:05 pm

Forget PPE.

America is relying on PPP.

Paycheck Protection Plan…

M46BC

https://howmuch.net/articles/paycheck-protection-program-ppp-by-industry-2020

#105 Do we have all the facts on 07.21.20 at 9:09 pm

Garth

Thank you for a very clear explanation of why the recovery occurred but I still wonder how the Covid 19 virus triggered in an all time high for the S&P 500 and escalating house prices in certain markets.

Still watching the metrics through!

#106 Stan Brooks on 07.21.20 at 9:10 pm

Ah, and the increase of taxes on capital ‘gains’ from 50 to 75 % would be pretty bitter considering that the underlying currency that we measure the capital prices against is under long term stress due to the high debt levels and record deficits.

With the declining in real terms and even officially economy and roaring inflation we will most likely pay for ‘gains’ on somethings that declines in real value.

With that if things with the deficit and the debt get permanently out of control it is possible for house prices to keep ‘appreciating’. A shack in GTA might ‘fetch’ 10 millions of increasing worthless currency.
Can we go the way of the Mexican peso? And why not?

It seems the model of stuffing the debt slaves with record debt, than beat the crap out of them to pay it back (while ‘controlling’ inflation through ever higher taxes) has reached it’s limits (in my mind long time ago) but the intellectually limited elite and rulers here refuse to acknowledge it and keep applying the wrong medicine to wrongly identified illness.

You can not solve the debt problems with more debt while making it ‘cheaper’ by artificially suppressing rates. It causes people to save even less and go much further in debt just to survive, while we practically have no savings. With no savings there is no investments.

You just have to borrow more and more, and then more and more just to survive. In automation and outsourcing/jobs melting world. Now accelerated by the health crisis. While insisting on bringing new immigrants (to do what, depend on the budget for survival?) When the dust settles some ‘third world’ or ‘developing’ countries could suddenly look pretty good.

Cheers,

#107 the Jaguar on 07.21.20 at 9:10 pm

@ For Those About to Flop… on 07.21.20 at 7:42 pm
Hey Jaguar, did you see what Evan Siddall tweety birded the other day…
M46BC

I didn’t catch that. I confess I mostly read the newspapers, not Twitter or Instagram or any of the social media channels. How old fashioned, huh? Lots of reasons for it, but look no further than the recent ‘breach’ on Twitter accounts to gain insight into my feelings about it. As John Chen of BlackBerry said in 2018…
“I’m amazed how each and every one of us are willing to give up what’s most valuable that we have, which is our data, in exchange for convenience.””

In addition to being an Evan Siddall fan, I am a John Chen fan. He has shown great composure and courage under pressure, a characteristic of great leadership.

Siddall will be stepping down at end of this year, but he will go out on his shield and when he exits the chickens coming home to roost will be in full view for all to witness. Bless you Evan, and thank you for your service to this country.
From his retirement press notices…

‘Siddall had been at the forefront of efforts by Canadian policy makers in recent years to cool the nation’s real estate markets, slow record high household debt levels and reduce the exposure of taxpayers to housing, at a time of historically cheap lending. ‘

Amen.

#108 Wrk.dover on 07.21.20 at 9:14 pm

#68 Dave on 07.21.20 at 6:41 pm
Cold War with China is coming soon.

Canada will be hit hard and offer little offense.

———————————————

Which is why I am leery of investing in Walmart or CTC.
Other than their origin of supply chain, they would be a wonderful place to earn/glean divvies.

I figured on a consumer boycott by now, but nah, no scruples in the herd, just like CERB milkers not paying mortgages or rent.

If I could just learn to think immorally above the waist as well as I do below it, I too could embrace the new normal.

#109 Father’s Daughter on 07.21.20 at 9:25 pm

Am I missing something about the excitement of being first? Is there a prize? I don’t get it..

Thinking of moving to Burlington ON, but the houses have been flying off the market and it’s not a game we’re willing to play. Will keep renting in Toronto. No rush to buy though as we own a property in Niagara wine country that we Airbnb (gasp) to help pay the bills. Business is booming. Canadian wine is no Baby Duck, it’s come a long way. No LCBO lineups and free delivery too #roseallday

Love the blog Garth.

#110 Bobby Bittman on 07.21.20 at 9:29 pm

Dolce: No need to insult member nations who dare to disagree with glorious Italia. Surely there is an EU Ministry of Hurt Feelings where you could seek redress?

#111 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 07.21.20 at 9:33 pm

Announcing for the CFL’s newest team……………

THE EDMONTON MAPLE LEAFS!!!!

The best football franchise in Canada takes on a name shown total disrespect by the biggest sh*thole city in Canada, and turns it all around!!

This will be GREAT!!

#112 crazed and a little confused on 07.21.20 at 9:43 pm

well you are a little early garth to promote the ” V shaped recovery. oh i agree this will recover but lets not forget
mass evictions , mortgage deferred payments ,
the whole restaurant , cruise line, travel companies are on their knees looking for help.

once the govt bailout will end and it will . such economic upheaval will occur. that is the time to get back in.

now i rebought one of my sold stocks earlier this week because when its low enough i will still buy regardless of future speculation so im not really timing the market. Im just buy when the economic conditions give me a good deal. i missed the run up because i sold early; however i still made money . just be ready when the opportunity presents itself

yes you are right . just a little early.

#113 Alice in Sunderland on 07.21.20 at 9:58 pm

No where in today’s article does it mention a 6 month lockdown in the northern hemisphere this coming winter. Let’s see how everything goes after the guaranteed 2nd wave. Keep drinking the cool aid folks . Keep buying over priced real estate ,stocks that are not based on reality and non nationalized crypto currencies that is already essentially illegal in China and Russia.

#114 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.21.20 at 10:03 pm

Dear Sara (No Longer Karen):

You mentioned my “Covid” math. It’s just math driven by Canadian Covid stats. Easy to reference for anyone.

Sorry you can’t understand it. Should I mansplain it to you?

#115 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.21.20 at 10:05 pm

Hey Flop:

Is your wife’s name “Sara”?

#116 kappa on 07.21.20 at 10:07 pm

“A Spanish study has cast doubt on the feasibility of herd immunity as a way of tackling the coronavirus pandemic. ”

The study published in medical journal the Lancet.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983

>>start quotation>>


Prof Danny Altmann, British Society for Immunology spokesperson and Professor of Immunology at Imperial College London, described the study as “sobering”.

“Findings such as this reinforce the idea that faced with a lethal infection that induces rather short-lived immunity, the challenge is to identify the best vaccine strategies able to overcome these problems and stimulate a large, sustained, optimal, immune response in the way the virus failed to do,” Prof Altmann said

>>end quotation>>

More sobering facts gathered by renowned epidemiologist – William Haseltine :

https://www.williamhaseltine.com/a-key-to-understanding-the-race-for-a-covid-19-vaccine/

Merk CEO (Merk discovered/developed 4 out of the 7 new vaccines that were successful in the past 25 years).

https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/merck-ceo-ken-frazier-speaks-about-a-covid-cure-racism-and-why-leaders-need-to-walk-the-talk

Here’s an excerpt:

“…when people tell the public that there’s going to be a vaccine by the end of 2020, for example, I think they do a grave disservice to the public. I think at the end of the day, we don’t want to rush the vaccine before we’ve done rigorous science. We’ve seen in the past, for example, with the swine flu, that that vaccine did more harm than good. We don’t have a great history of introducing vaccines quickly in the middle of a pandemic.”

Enjoy the read.

I’m very glad to see the stocks going up on vaccine news. Very optimistic on stocks; don’t care if valuations are high when interest rates are around 0% for years. But I wouldn’t run to take a vaccine that was rushed in by some political agenda, public pressure, pharma companies manipulation or anything like that. We need the science to lead the way.

#117 akashic record on 07.21.20 at 10:14 pm

An other they when it’s all good and peachy.

#118 akashic record on 07.21.20 at 10:15 pm

Day is sometimes they. Confusing times.

#119 Going viral on 07.21.20 at 10:32 pm

#67 greg
I agree with you.
How about residents buying for foreigners.
I think it’s naive not being aware of the vast amount of money laundering some banks have been caught and fined for.
And yes foreign money did ramp the market up.
That’s undisputed by RE agents and government stats.
Where there’s a will there’s a way, especially when money’s involved.

#120 Nonplused on 07.21.20 at 10:48 pm

#104 Dirty Dan on 07.21.20 at 8:49 pm

Thanks for making me feel better.

#121 TurnerNation on 07.21.20 at 10:48 pm

A friend say to me he cannot recall last time he saw an airplane in the sky. Yeah I said they just dialed us back 100 years.
(Friends are people you can count…on one hand. No more.)

I did not expect THIS of course. But I did expect this, look at the timestamps on my posts. This comments section is is a frightening tabula rasa, the ne plus ultra of its kind.
What is obiter dictum today becomes so tomorrow. (Or maybe I am mixing mets).
….
Jul 21, 2015 – As mentioned, the Bank of Canada rate cut seven days ago was an admission of troubles. … #1 TurnerNation on 07.21.15 at 6:15 pm … Me thinks get ready for life in an “agenda 21” 500 sq foot condo and on yer bike and rickshaws. …

#32 TurnerNation on 08.11.17 at 7:12 pm
No it’s all bikes and rickshaws. Fellow Komrades in this 2nd world country.

#53 TurnerNation on 08.17.14 at 7:54 pm
Closer to home: this weekend sections of Yonge St, Bloor St shut down to cars in favor of people, bikes, and, soon, Scooters and Rickshaws like 2nd World countries’. Expect road tolls, car bans, and in iron curtain to fist itself down upon Toronto’s core.
They recently closed a lane on Simcoe Street in favour of a bike lane downtown. Witness the rush hour traffic jams nightly as car idle and jockey for space. Madness.

#122 no blog for old men on 07.21.20 at 10:59 pm

@#114 Alice in Sunderland on 07.21.20 at 9:58 pm
No where in today’s article does it mention a 6 month lockdown in the northern hemisphere this coming winter. Let’s see how everything goes after the guaranteed 2nd wave. Keep drinking the cool aid folks . Keep buying over priced real estate ,stocks that are not based on reality and non nationalized crypto currencies that is already essentially illegal in China and Russia.
————-

guaranteed eh?

#123 no blog for old men on 07.21.20 at 11:00 pm

@#112 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 07.21.20 at 9:33 pm
—————–

you forget to take your meds again?

#124 Renter on 07.21.20 at 11:15 pm

#43 Renter on 07.21.20 at 5:12 pm

Garth sir, does that mean the House prices will not normalize as CMHC or this esteemed blog predicted. CB and Govt will keep plumping the real estate

Which market? – Garth

Residential in GTA

#125 baloney Sandwitch on 07.21.20 at 11:21 pm

“I would say the range of possibilities on the economic side are still extraordinarily wide… I don’t know the consequences of shutting down the American economy.” – Warren Buffett, May 2020.

#126 Dr V on 07.21.20 at 11:27 pm

Hmm…keep the EE…………..the Edmontonias??

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmontonia

or the elks…… eagles…….

#127 Shannon Mckenney on 07.22.20 at 12:08 am

Trump again zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz ? The default topic for dull minds. Trudeau wouldn’t have lasted ten minutes in any other country G7 or otherwise, after the repeated corruption scandals, incompetence and buffoonery. And we’re focused on Trump are we? Pathetic.

#128 Love in the time of COVID on 07.22.20 at 12:24 am

#96 Glory Hole on 07.21.20 at 8:08 pm
Those radical leftist govt folks on the other side of the mountains (BC to those in Prince Albert) are now proscribing how to manage that most joyous of all physical pleasures.
All the details here
https://bit.ly/3jqQ0Oc
Yes, they did proscribe “glory holes.”
Don’t let the kids see this.
I’m shocked I tell you, I’m shocked
….

Well there ya have it….. lotus land to the rescue!

#129 NSNG on 07.22.20 at 12:28 am

#30 MF on 07.21.20 at 4:14 pm

Wrong again, Karen

#130 Comrade on 07.22.20 at 12:40 am

BC is up for some interesting times, considering that our industry is heavily dependent on Real estate, tourism and services.

Here is the latest survey about the people confidence:

“What happened: Only 56% of British Columbians feel confident about their ability to cover their living expenses over the next year, while 43% say they are within $200 from financial insolvency at the end of the month.”
(ref. https://biv.com/article/2020/07/four-10-british-columbians-within-200-insolvency)

Add to that 17.63% of BC GDP is real estate, and 8.91% construction, which again is real estate driven. that is 1/4 of the economy is dependent on the real estate, and with majority of population $200 away from insolvency.

How will we recover? Since the cases started going up, and based on the recent news it is to be expected that some restrictions will be reimposed, and I wouldn’t exclude potential for full lockdowns in fall/winter. Will current 343 billion deficit look like just small dent in comparison to what’s coming in the next couple of years?

#131 Priapism on 07.22.20 at 1:07 am

What about the Edmonton Ruff Ryders?

The CFL can never have too many of those!

#132 Faron on 07.22.20 at 2:09 am

Hi Garth,

What’s your take on the growth of the S&P relative to the lower growth of an equal weight version of the index? The latter reduces the effect of the outsized gains of big tech and thus would seem to offer a better connection between the overall state of corporate health going forward and the equity market. An equal weight S&P is also still -8 % YTD while S&P is now ahead half a pct. So perhaps there’s better value in the equal weight index and thus better potential for returns?

Thanks for reading

#133 Howard on 07.22.20 at 3:34 am

#52 Dolce Vita on 07.21.20 at 5:41 pm
“Many low-income or homeless Canadians applied and received the CERB benefit without qualifying. Advocates say the government should give them amnesty.” -Garth

Agree with the Advocates.

The disadvantaged or have nots, for whatever reason they are or have become that, should NOT be allowed to fall victim to what COVID has done to Canada. They are the least equipped to weather that storm.

If we deny them that simple mercy, act of kindness as a wealthy nation, then we have no heart caring only about money, and become a give no quarter people to its most vulnerable rather than giving thanks for what we have been given and/or have achieved/fought hard for in life and sharing just a bit of that.

Not everyone gets a fair shake in life no matter how hard they try.

Time to see charity thru.

————————————–

It wasn’t Garth who typed that comment. I copied it from the linked article and therefore put it in italics.

But anyhow, in Canada there already exists a myriad of programmes to help “the poor”. And how does the CRA differentiate between an actual poor person and a student living at home playing video games? It matters not that Canada is a wealthy nation because it is the middle class that will pay for this, not the rich.

#134 BillyBob on 07.22.20 at 5:00 am

#84 Sail Away on 07.21.20 at 7:19 pm
Wait WE owns $50M in real estate?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nationalpost.com/news/property-brothers-kielburgers-facing-scrutiny-over-we-organizations-50m-real-estate-empire/wcm/d6edd301-fa00-4e7b-a2ba-57c1c1300a20/amp/

Ah, probably no big deal. After all, a nonprofit can use property to uplift the human spirit, right? Right?

==============================================

Absolutely everything about WE and their cozy connections with the Liberals and the Trudeau family is creepy and in dire need of close examination. Senior Kielburgers selling properties to their son’s charity. Sounds legit.

Where is the Opposition in Canada? It’s like they’ve disappeared from the face of the earth.

#135 Ted Fern on 07.22.20 at 5:59 am

Will the Mortgage Deferral Meltdown in September have any effect on the flatulence of unicorns? Rent-Viction is also scheduled to end as is CERB etc. Plus, even if Trudeau is found guilty again, how will that effect the price of Bud? Canadians are asking these important questions.

Is this a good time to have a cash pile or what?

#136 Sara on 07.22.20 at 8:02 am

#115/116

BytorTheSLOWDog, no need to “explain” your math. I get it. You’re not the brightest lightbulb. Haven’t got a clue that although you managed to multiply correctly, you didn’t apply the math meaningfully, thus your conclusion is wrong.

#137 Sara on 07.22.20 at 8:13 am

#102 CEF, My you are a sad little man. Not surprising you spend half your life writing useless comments on someone else’s blog.

You are the type who was probably still wetting the bed in grade school all the while chanting “red head peed the bed” to the cute little ginger haired girl who thought (correctly) you sucked.

BTW, I don’t find you offensive at all. Dull and juvenile definitely, but you’d have to try much harder to get a Karen-style offended reaction from me. You can’t even get that right, you’re so pathetic. LOL.

#138 Andrew on 07.22.20 at 8:13 am

This immediate health crisis has been really the covert means to forcing the climate change crisis people have wrongly assume is our fate. There are those who now advocate Modern Monetary Theory as the ONLY way out and point to six years of negative interest rates in Europe since 2014 with deflation. Their view of neoliberalism supported by Keynesian Economics has collapsed. Therefore, the solution is to cancel all physical money, eliminate cryptocurrencies, and force their vision of how to create this New Green World Order that they claim will produce FULL EMPLOYMENT, which is simply just another empty promise constructed upon theory.

#139 Orange Man....Orange on 07.22.20 at 9:07 am

Trump wears a mask. Why???

To create the space for everyone to wear masks and vote in person. This destroys the Democrats cheating vote-by-mail scheme.

Trump is so far ahead of the curve that most people can’t even see the curve.

#140 TurnerNation on 07.22.20 at 9:10 am

#19 Dolce Vita yup I see the uptick on the economically-bom’d out street in my prefecture. The only thing springing up is T2 Soma shops.
The shut down is an economic hit job. End of story.
Map of planned weed stores. They want in our heads alright. Head shop.

(Who is ‘they’? Look who runs or is on the boards of these weed companies. A former Prime Minister. Several former Police chiefs. The power structure…maintains power always)

https://www.agco.ca/sites/default/files/map/ONT_CN_ST_E.html

— Today’s weblog and some blog dogs lament, nothing makes sense. It does. Just flip everything you hear on the telescreen 180 deg.

Being healthy = Abnormal. You must act sick. Stayhome and cover your face. You cannot prove your health. You are Sick. Until the government corporations tell you otherwise.

Paying rent = needless behavior.

Saving = for suckers. All wealth will be taxed away. That’s the point of this economic hit. 101 new taxes coming.

#141 TurnerNation on 07.22.20 at 9:26 am

It’s great to know what doctors/hospital rely wholly upon a flu shot that covers only a few strains, not accounting for the *new* strains each year; and not accounting for **any other disease ** that might spread from the sickest of the sick who visit ER. Geez guys did you turn your brains off today? Or are you in attack mode. Good soldiers in the New System.

– To my last post, don’t be perplexed. The system has been turned against us, realized this in April.
This says it the best:

“#109 TurnerNation on 04.04.20 at 8:31 pm
Inverse ETFs? Naw this is the great Inversion our rulers have planned.

– healthy people are presumed sick
– law abiding people and laid off people are being arrested and fined for socalizing
– criminals are being freed and not held in jail as courts are closed.
– police stopped enforcement of traffic laws and minor offences. So much for serve and protect our communities. And they are enjoying full pay for little work. Our heroes are they?
– Thrifty savers are punished over and over again by surprise interest rate cuts.
– thriftless uhh spendthrifts also are rewarded with the government handouts.
– small business and job creators are being destroyed.
– the means of capital are being seized by lenders, government.
Everything was turned upside down for the new system coming. Hang on.”

#142 Ace Goodheart on 07.22.20 at 9:37 am

Re: #135 BillyBob on 07.22.20 at 5:00 am

Absolutely everything about WE and their cozy connections with the Liberals and the Trudeau family is creepy and in dire need of close examination. Senior Kielburgers selling properties to their son’s charity. Sounds legit.

Where is the Opposition in Canada? It’s like they’ve disappeared from the face of the earth.

//////////////////////////////////////

This is going to blow up. It is already happening.

The big difference between this latest Liberal scandal and the two previous ones, is that the Libs do not control the committees anymore.

So they are just hoping that either the NDP or the Bloc will assist them in burying and covering up all of the bad stuff here.

Problem is, no one is playing ball. The NDP are not assisting them to bury or cover up anything, the Bloc could care less, but are not co-operating, and the Cons are just like hungry wolves that have found an opening in the door and are clawing their way in.

Notice that T2 is basically staying home from work. He is taking a lot of personal days and is not responding to media inquiries. He is acting like a person who has gone into hiding.

I honestly think he is a tragic figure. He is a stoner kid, trust fund baby, and the way he sees things, it is fine and perfectly OK to do what he has done. I don’t think he honestly sees anything wrong with it. The ways of the ultra wealthy are very different than the ways of you and me. He probably has no idea.

I give T2 until the end of August to resign. He will then get scooped up by some international organization, likely connected to the UN, and he will be off to start a new career as special envoy to this or that, leaving this current mess behind him. I don’t think he will be very much hurt by this. But I believe his career in politics will shortly be over.

The Kielburgers are another story. They have spent many years successfully fending off media attacks on their empire. They have made some enemies while doing this. They engage in “SLAPP” litigation, where it is allowed and they have a legal team working to protect them from any perceived attacks on their “brand”.

The media are now surrounding them, and basically looking for blood. I don’t think that those two are going to come out of this OK. They are in full fledged flight mode right now, hiding and ducking. They are in a lot of trouble I think. Once you get the kind of media attention those two are getting, focused on a charity that has spent a lot of time accumulating a real estate empire that rivals that which was owned by the Mirvish family, the press is going to find something on them.

And they are not very good at keeping their act together. They have already made a number of mistakes and it appears they will make more.

I think they are in trouble. They are getting the kind of media attention usually reserved for people who have really done something awful.

And they didn’t actually do all that much.

This situation is quite juicy and very interesting to watch.

#143 Flop... on 07.22.20 at 9:44 am

#116 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.21.20 at 10:05 pm
Hey Flop:

Is your wife’s name “Sara”?

//////////////

Why, because as normal, last week some of you guys decide to say some stupid stuff and someone decided to troll you guys right back?

You wanna be a little twerp on here daily, fine, just leave me out of it.

My wife is too busy to waste her time on you.

Plus this is Canada.

I can only afford one wife…

M46BC

#144 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.22.20 at 9:44 am

@#138 Sara(aka Easily Offended karen)
“Dull and juvenile definitely, but you’d have to try much harder to get a Karen-style offended reaction from me. ”
+++++

…..and yet you still respond, like the same neighborhood dog barking at the same mailman, walking the same route, at the same time, day after day after day….. :)

#145 Mithan on 07.22.20 at 9:46 am

My guess is Trudeau announces a good $100billion in stimulus for the country at some point in the next 6-12 months.

#146 YVR Expat on 07.22.20 at 9:47 am

David Portnoy was right all along, “stocks only go up!”

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.22.20 at 9:51 am

@#143 Ace Goodheart
“Notice that T2 is basically staying home from work. He is taking a lot of personal days and is not responding to media inquiries. He is acting like a person who has gone into hiding.”

++++

Well,
On the bright side.
It has spared us from his daily “pressers” where he wheezes,
“ummm, errrrr, aaaaahhh, We are announcing, ahhhhhh, we are announcing, ummmm. We have decided that, ahhhhh, the easily offfended , errrrr, the easily offended will be recieving a one time grant of ahhhhhhh, $500 and ahhhhhh that will cost $10 billion dollars……”

He hasnt spent us further in the hole in at least a fricken week.

#148 Sail Away on 07.22.20 at 10:39 am

Re: WE charity foundation

With recent revelations, the only option I see for Justin is to throw WE under the bus.

We shall see. As Ace says, it’s juicy.

#149 ts on 07.22.20 at 10:45 am

“it’s a ball of confusion…that’s what the world is today… and the band played on..”

#150 BillyBob on 07.22.20 at 11:08 am

#143 Ace Goodheart on 07.22.20 at 9:37 am
Re: #135 BillyBob on 07.22.20 at 5:00 am

Absolutely everything about WE and their cozy connections with the Liberals and the Trudeau family is creepy and in dire need of close examination. Senior Kielburgers selling properties to their son’s charity. Sounds legit.

Where is the Opposition in Canada? It’s like they’ve disappeared from the face of the earth.

//////////////////////////////////////

I think they are in trouble. They are getting the kind of media attention usually reserved for people who have really done something awful.

———————————————————————————-

Thanks for the reply Ace, agreed on all points.

I’m glad to see the media digging in but as I said I don’t understand why the Conservatives/NDP/Greens aren’t going to town on such a potential scandal.

I don’t even live in Canada and I can smell the stench from here.

#151 Lambchop on 07.22.20 at 11:09 am

Turns out Trudeau even lied about who he was handing our tax dollars to.

“Both a government and charity official confirmed the controversial Canada Student Service Grant contract was not with WE Charity, as Trudeau announced.

Rather, the government gave the contract to the WE Charity Foundation, which is a distinct charity with no track record.

The WE Charity Foundation was incorporated as recently as January 2018. It was described by WE as inactive in August 2018 and only became a federally registered charity in April 2019.

Its stated purpose was to hold tens of millions worth of WE Charity real estate.”

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/7203337/trudeau-we-charity-foundation-real-estate-holding-company/amp/

#152 Sail Away on 07.22.20 at 11:09 am

Re: WE charity foundation

In any case, this will stop the free, unsupervised govt money hemmorhaging. It’s about time.

#153 Don Guillermo on 07.22.20 at 11:20 am

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.20 at 8:31 pm
Wellll
In these pc times the Edmonton Eskimos have decided to rebrand themselves.

““This is a very important day in the history of our football club,” began the long-faced lawyer Agrios. “The Edmonton Eskimos Football Club will be discontinuing the use of the word Eskimos in it.”

The politcally correct CFL football team from Edmonton would like to keep the moniker “EE”.

May I be the first to suggest…

The Edmonton Erased?

Re-writing history one day at a time
***************************************
Edmonton Exkimos … and just heard the Oilers were changing to the Edmonton Solar Panels. As usual Redmonton leads the way.

#154 CERBNation on 07.22.20 at 11:33 am

142 TurnerNation on 07.22.20 at 9:26 am

My scroll finger is getting arthritis….. they own you.

#155 Stoph on 07.22.20 at 11:39 am

#149 Sail Away on 07.22.20 at 10:39 am
Re: WE charity foundation

With recent revelations, the only option I see for Justin is to throw WE under the bus.

We shall see. As Ace says, it’s juicy.

—————————————————————-

Really? I thought that WE is a Liberal farm team.

https://vimeo.com/223164192

#156 LP on 07.22.20 at 11:41 am

The tragedy of the whole WE mess is that my 3 oldest grandchildren are going to be disillusioned about their heros. For a number of years, the oldest of them was granted the privilege of attending WE rallies in Toronto along with thousands of other kids her age. Her brother, younger by 3 years, saw and wanted to be like his sister in working out the attributes of the whole WE philosophy. The next in line, younger by 5 years, saw her mother (a teacher) propound the WE credo and work in her classroom to encourage her students to also emulate the WE philosophy. In short, they were believers!

Now, as they see and listen to the news they will see their heroes come crashing down, dragged through the gutter rightly or wrongly. They have feet of clay – just like the rest of us. I’m sorry that this lesson will be learned by kids so young. But my question remains: how was a ‘charitable’ organization allowed to amass a real estate holding of such magnitude without someone noticing before this?

#157 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 07.22.20 at 12:24 pm

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.22.20 at 9:44 am
@#138 Sara(aka Easily Offended karen)
“Dull and juvenile definitely, but you’d have to try much harder to get a Karen-style offended reaction from me. ”
+++++

…..and yet you still respond, like the same neighborhood dog barking at the same mailman, walking the same route, at the same time, day after day after day….. :)

//////////////

She responds because the alternative is letting bitter incels, such as yourself, run women off the blog comments.

#158 tccontrarian on 07.22.20 at 12:27 pm

“The S&P 500 … is even up overall in 2020, which is astonishing after a trip into bear market territory in March.”

Maybe true (albeit just marginally so), but it has not regained the February highs.
The Naz on the other hand has blasted to new highs, while the Russell 2000 is actually down YTD.
So, not all peaches and cream…

tcc

#159 Sara on 07.22.20 at 12:37 pm

#158 Right on! :)

#160 mike from mtl on 07.22.20 at 12:48 pm

#133 Faron on 07.22.20 at 2:09 am
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

The sp500 minus FAANG has gone nowhere the last few years as did basically every other index. So makes you think of what is properly valued?

Passive investing is great and all but be aware of the hype and hyperbole, quoting the sp500 then ignoring all the other flat (or negative) holdings. Last I checked the only metric of value is total return.

Thing is indexes are supposed to be like that, boom and bust cycles – the only glaring exception is sp500. It’s been sugar high on Fed ZIRP and buybacks since 08-09.

#161 Sail Away on 07.22.20 at 12:49 pm

#157 LP on 07.22.20 at 11:41 am

The tragedy of the whole WE mess is that my 3 oldest grandchildren are going to be disillusioned about their heros.

—————-

Disillusionment is good training for a life working with people.

Dogs don’t lie or cheat. Why do you think retired politicians like their dogs so much?

#162 Ace Goodheart on 07.22.20 at 1:00 pm

A recession is when your neighbour loses their job

A depression is when you lose your job

A recovery is when Justin Trudeau loses HIS job

PierrePoilievre

#163 Sara on 07.22.20 at 1:00 pm

#145 @#138 Sara(aka Easily Offended karen)
“Dull and juvenile definitely, but you’d have to try much harder to get a Karen-style offended reaction from me. ”
+++++

…..and yet you still respond, like the same neighborhood dog barking at the same mailman, walking the
same route, at the same time, day after day after day….. :)
====================================

Your mailman analogy is quite appropriate in that you visit Garth’s blog every single day — multiple times/day and even weekends (such a keener) — delivering the same junk messages nobody wants to read.

You seem to be unaware how pathetic and idiotic you sound in your never ending diatribes. Sad really. I feel for your better half.

#164 Faron on 07.22.20 at 1:01 pm

#160 Sara on 07.22.20 at 12:37 pm

#158 Right on! :)

BAM! Nice!

#165 JB Condos are going down on 07.22.20 at 1:01 pm

#57 cramar on 07.21.20 at 6:02 pm

“The world is upside down. In a normal recession people lose jobs, deplete their savings, suffer a big income drop and are forced to sell their homes, which decline in value. In this downturn almost nobody’s working, savings are rising, incomes are going up, debt anxieties falling and real estate is plumping. Oh yeah, and the stock market just gained 49%.”

Yes, short term! But going forward 2021 & 22, the chickens should come home to roost. Normal will return. Not all jobs will come back. People will have even less savings. Incomes for many will drop (supply and demand), people with even more debt than 2019, housing will finally match reality (defaults and forclosures, condo crash), and lo and behold reality will finally hit the stock market. If market valuation depends on profitability, then most companies will be less profitable in a recessionary economy for the foreseeable future.
………………………………………………………………….
Rule # 1 Don’t purchase a CONDO
Rule # 2 Purchase one and your investment will decline
Rule # 3 Skip the the purchase a CONDO and your investments will rise.

#166 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.22.20 at 1:02 pm

#15 Mr. Merlin The Wizard on 07.21.20 at 3:17 pm
Garth, what do you mean by “unearned home ownership”? Can you explain what earned home ownership would be? How would someone in Toronto making the median family household income buy a house in an “earned” fashion these days? Is inheritance earned? What about winning the genetic lottery, having your parents buy a high SAT score and get you into Harvard, and then off to Google where you make $250k a year? Is that an earned income? I’m struggling to see what the difference is these days between earned and unearned. Maybe you can help the wizard.

Sure. When you can afford a home without indenturing yourself and putting your family at financial risk, you have earned the right to proceed. – Garth

————————————————————–
The value of the dollar and all currencies is declining. There are significant lag times in the devaluation process.
It’s inflationary effect will likely appear in Assets of any kind. Stocks, Real estate.
Over time the inflationary effect will be unstoppable, notwithstanding the usual ups and downs of the markets.
Knowing that we need a currency to trade without carrying items to barter, we will tolerate over time massive assaults on the value of currency through Money printing, electronic or real.
It seems to be the new normal.
Savers will always be raped and borrowers will benefit.

#167 JB on 07.22.20 at 1:04 pm

#71 T on 07.21.20 at 6:51 pm

#64 Penny Henny on 07.21.20 at 6:22 pm
#34 april on 07.21.20 at 4:31 pm
According to Eitel anaylics and Ross Kay, real estate in Canada is going down and will continue into 2021/22 at least.-
//////////////

Ross Kay has been wrong for so many years even the “Real Mark’ stop believing him.
Ross Kay called the bottom in the GTA some day in May 2013.

————

But Ross has all the secret sauce data proving 2013 was the peak across Canada… that no other organization has access to. But for a small fee you can join his program of him telling you it’s a bad time to buy a house, all the time.

Where is Real Mark anyways? I almost forgot about him. And where has smoking man been?
………………………………………………………………
Good didn’t care for Real Mark, Smoking Man is on borrowed time at Happy Acres spending time with his family. Well wishes to Smoky.

#168 LP on 07.22.20 at 1:10 pm

#162 Sail Away on 07.22.20 at 12:49 pm
#157 LP on 07.22.20 at 11:41 am

Dogs don’t lie or cheat. Why do you think retired politicians like their dogs so much?
****************************

Maybe because, knowing they were politicians, they love them anyway.

#169 Overheardyou on 07.22.20 at 1:13 pm

#67 greg on 07.21.20 at 6:35 pm

You have always maintained that the real estate market was being fuelled by domestic buyers. I do not believe that domestic buyers are shelling out the 2 million dollars on average that sellers are getting in the most popular areas of Toronto. I know you don’t want to hear it but I suspect with the uncertain state of affairs in Hong Kong, the Chinese are looking for a safe place to park their money.

There is an effective block on foreign buying through the non-resident tax. Try again. – Garth

—————————

Hope this helps: https://wowa.ca/calculators/land-transfer-tax The tax on a $2M property would be $372,950 CAD. Not including other fees and upkeep.

That looks like a poor investment for gains or capital preservation

#170 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.22.20 at 1:24 pm

@#158 Masks make you more attractive
“She responds because the alternative is letting bitter incels….”
++++

Ahahahaha, I’m going up in the world……faster than a fart in an elevator…….silly me, and here I thought I was an offending itch she just had to scratch……

#171 Tyberius on 07.22.20 at 1:47 pm

DELETED

#172 crazyfox on 07.22.20 at 1:58 pm

“My statement was Euro markets have outperformed in the last couple of months. Every investor should have Canadian, US and International exposure, including Europe and emerging markets in the East. Even you have no idea what will happen. – Garth”

Purely from a currency perspective, investors want more exposure to the Euro and less so, the American dollar. This is a medium and long term perspective, potentially short as well. The fiscal side of the dollar is a mess and will get worse going forward, it makes sense and made better sense a couple months ago, but try to time it. The U.S. markets in my view are bloated at least, historically:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

The only thing propping it up is CB’s and government bailouts. No other reason outside of government manipulation is logical in an age of double digit unemployment and tanking incomes.

To your point though, about portfolio’s taking a pop with an announcement of a vaccine, it’ll be a flash in the pan. The market will then have to ask the difficult question, “will the government pull back on its market manipulation? What if there really is an election and the adults take over?” It’s not earnings driving this market. I’ve been too busy to follow, but logic dictates other than some techs, it won’t be good and won’t be for at least3 or 4 more quarters:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/market-heads-into-worst-earnings-season-in-12-years-amid-worries-virus-is-slowing-recovery.html

If governments pull back spending, say, for no other reason than the pandemic is over, will earnings magically reappear stronger than ever? Will the jobs come back? Or will something darker set in… is this what the market is hoping for now, endless government bailouts to all our problems and currencies won’t adjust to so called free money going forward because we can just print away and owe ourselves? Money is just a human construct after all so why not right? See how easy it is to disconnect from reality? Welcome to the zombie market, everyone:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-18/march-of-zombie-companies-just-gets-louder-in-the-stock-market

#173 Sail Away on 07.22.20 at 2:01 pm

#169 LP on 07.22.20 at 1:10 pm
#162 Sail Away on 07.22.20 at 12:49 pm
#157 LP on 07.22.20 at 11:41 am

Dogs don’t lie or cheat. Why do you think retired politicians like their dogs so much?

————-

Maybe because, knowing they were politicians, they love them anyway.

————-

Haha

#174 Trojan House on 07.22.20 at 2:10 pm

I just deactivated my Facebook account and I already feel so much better. I would suggest everyone do it for their own piece of mind.

#175 Yuus bin Haad on 07.22.20 at 2:30 pm

I feel much better since Trump donned his mask. Now, if we can only get Twinkletoes to stop touching his face.

#176 Sara on 07.22.20 at 2:33 pm

#165 Thanks! Trolling the trolls is fun! I love this blog!

#177 NotLegalAdvice on 07.22.20 at 2:34 pm

#16 Love_The_Cottage on 07.21.20 at 3:21 pm

Don’t pay either one. Assuming you have a decent amount of equity built in your home (and if you visit this site you should) then negotiate HARD with the banks. Shop around. Check multiple places. Don’t take the first offer. Don’t take the second. The banks need your business, my nephew got the rate down a lot.

_______________________________________

I have been shopping around and one of the big 6 banks have offered me 1.99 on a 5 year fixed 25 year OR 2.04% on a 5 year fixed 30 year.

NOT BAD. Another bank is offering me 3 grand free to join them. Banks are looking out for us first time home buyers like hawks.

I don’t know how much more I can negotiate. 25%/25% lump sum payments per payment/ annually.

#178 Don Guillermo on 07.22.20 at 2:40 pm

#175 Trojan House on 07.22.20 at 2:10 pm
I just deactivated my Facebook account and I already feel so much better. I would suggest everyone do it for their own piece of mind.
*************************************
I deactivated mine Oct 21st 2019 right after the NFLD election results came in.

#179 Idealistic Realist on 07.22.20 at 2:48 pm

#158 Masks really do make some people more attractive on 07.22.20 at 12:24 pm

Please do not assume all women are like Easily Offended Karen. What an insult.

#180 Faron on 07.22.20 at 3:20 pm

#177 Sara on 07.22.20 at 2:33 pm

#165 Thanks! Trolling the trolls is fun! I love this blog!

As much as I like seeing the ignorami get eviscerated here, consider my words of caution:

It’s fun for a while… You seem sharp, thus the time spent here is probably not well spent considering your capabilities. The trolls appear much larger and their thoughts and opinions much more impactful on the internet than they are in reality. That’s why they come here, because they are weak IRL. I speak from examining my own behaviour here as well as others’.

Regardless, have fun.

#181 JB on 07.22.20 at 3:56 pm

Second, a vaccine’s coming. Inevitably. The latest news is one will be approved in Europe in 2020 – and that might be beaten in the US if the Moderna juice continues to look promising. Remember all this is being financed by governments, willing to spend billions on quickly producing hundreds of millions of doses. Even if vaccines are less than miraculous, therapies for Covid are being tested and implemented routinely. The day one of these things is stamped as safe and effective, stand back. Your portfolio will have an eruption.
…………………………………………………………..
Oh that last statement is getting me hot!
Now on the bright side my small Au portfolio has made some gains and its time to pack it up. I am now at the one year dump. Made some $ now getting out.
Bought Pfizer in March at a low and I think Im going to put some Au money into more of it. It goes against my gut right now but I think they are on to something re Covid. Have to see how the larger phase 2b/3 trials go. Time will tell.

#182 Sail Away on 07.22.20 at 4:31 pm

#181 Faron on 07.22.20 at 3:20 pm
#177 Sara on 07.22.20 at 2:33 pm

#165 Thanks! Trolling the trolls is fun! I love this blog!

————–

As much as I like seeing the ignorami get eviscerated here, consider my words of caution:

It’s fun for a while… You seem sharp, thus the time spent here is probably not well spent considering your capabilities.

————–

Sharp? Are you kidding?

I’ve only seen disrespectful insults as the theme so far.

Let’s just say if one was peer-reviewing their blog commentary, an unbiased conclusion would definitely not support ‘sharp’, or for that matter: ‘respectful and wide-ranging’.

Blinded by bias, F?

#183 Faron on 07.22.20 at 7:46 pm

#184 Sail Away on 07.22.20 at 4:31 pm

Blinded by bias, F?

Well, sharp enough to parlay fartzie who strikes me as fairly clever and to recognize within a few days here that Bytor is an easily picked apart buffoon which I think is objectively clear.

But, I’ll give you that my bias is almost inescapable as is true for almost everyone. We all have an umwelt (that’s for you Ponzie; one of those great German words that has no translation) and parting from it requires transcendence that many can’t achieve.

While I have you, sincere congratulations on your TSLA stoicism BTW. Results transcended analysts’ bias…

#184 Trojan House on 07.22.20 at 10:19 pm

Apparently now California has surpassed NYC as the Covid capital of the US of A. Interesting that another democratic state is leading the way when it comes to the virus.

#185 Sail Away on 07.23.20 at 1:00 am

#185 Faron on 07.22.20 at 7:46 pm

While I have you, sincere congratulations on your TSLA stoicism BTW. Results transcended analysts’ bias…

————–

Duh. Probably another 7-8% tomorrow.

Win some… win some more, it seems. Don’t forget to update your dbag portfolio.

#186 alex on 07.23.20 at 2:59 pm

garth, when trump wins in november, will you agree to stop making US political predictions?

I made none. The polls, however, are. – Garth