Not there yet

The Royal Bank of Scotland has told its 50,000 employees not to bother coming back to work. Until sometime in 2021.

Hmm, so it’s Scotland, not Canada. But this is definitely a trend. Not just working remotely, but the conclusion of major corporations that the virus will rage for a long time. A long, long time. Despite the news weekly about vaccine trials or Covid treatments.

It’s now been over 100 days since we got whacked. Six months have passed since the bug started earning serious headlines out of China, where authorities actually welded apartment doors shut to contain it. (Just try that in Texas.) Globally there have been almost 15 million cases and 600,000 deaths. The States has seen four million infections and almost 145,000 fatalities. Public health officials forecast 200,000 by the autumn, and it seems about right. By the time the November presidential election comes around, it will be one hell of a body count.

But this is not a virus blog (I wish). Instead we’re interested in what the little bugger is doing to the economy, finances and investments. So the RBS decision, bolstered by those of airline officials (these companies are essentially being dismantled) delivers this verdict: we’ll be in a virus-dominated world until the winter. Or maybe the spring. The pandemic, in other words, will be about a year in length. (The Spanish Flu pandemic, which sprang out of WW1, raged from 1918 until the early 1920s. Today we have a vaccine against this, which we call the H1N1. But people still get it.)

Can we last a year? Are markets pricing that in?

First, government money – the CERB, wage subsidies, enhanced child pogey, student cash, OAS bonus etc. – has pumped about $80 billion into personal bank accounts over the last four months. Historic. Meanwhile a million households haven’t been making mortgage payments. An unknown number of renters are living for free since evictions have been halted and landlord/tenant boards are shut. Millions are working from home with no commuting costs, no daycare to pay, no eyeliner or drycleaning.

The result has been an improvement in personal finances because of the virus, believe it or not. That’s what the latest MNP poll found. When Covid hit these guys told us that 49% of Canadians feared imminent bankruptcy, which caused journalistic apoplexy and a real estate plop. Today’s it’s a different story. Respondents say(mirabile dictu) they can now pay their bills! Four in ten state they have no debt regrets and a quarter believe they’re better off than a year ago. The number who report they are $200 or less each month from insolvency has dropped to 43% (in Canada, that’s a win).

The question is, what happens when the CERB ends, mortgages have to be serviced and tenants start being tossed for non-payment? And there is no answer. We don’t know. But it’s probably not good.

As for markets and financial assets in general, investors were punished in 2020 then largely restored. There’s no mystery as to some of the reasons why. Pandemics are temporary, of course, so no reason for investors to turtle for long. Beyond that, massive government fiscal stimulus and central bank monetary stimulus have filled in the economic crater that Covid caused. Now CBs say rates will stay low until 2023, which pretty much guarantees price inflation.

And don’t underplay the impact of speculation. As reported here, trades in Tesla alone hit 10,000 per hour recently on just one platform – Robinhood. That’s helped the stock climb more than 200% to obese levels. Apparently Millennials and first-time investors have fallen in love with equities.

Google searches for ‘how to invest in the stock market’ rose 83% as the virus hit and markets swooned. The year/year gain, says Investing.com, is 328% while searches for ‘stocks to buy’ have jumped over 400%. This is not investing, of course. It’s speculating. But this onslaught of money – much of it coming directly from government benefits and deferred mortgage payments – has been partially responsible for 40%+ market gains since the end of March.

As for real estate, you know the story. The virus crushed listings and squished demand. Reopening has spiked the number of buyers who are competing for limited listings and financed with 2% mortgages. So sales and prices have jumped. FOMO has returned. Multiple bids are happening in major centres (but not Alberta) across the nation.

None of this is normal. Understand that. In a way we’re living in a delusional time, walking through cities emptied of commerce and profits, amid the detritus of failed businesses with Depression-era joblessness, yet people have money and confidence. They’re buying houses, taking on new debt, speculating and looking for all the world like grasshoppers.

You may know how that ends.

About the picture: “Saw this tonight in Vancouver,” Mike says, “Hope it gives you a chuckle.”

124 comments ↓

#1 conan on 07.20.20 at 3:57 pm

The short term answer is the continuation of the CERB, but it is reduced to a 1000 and you can earn 2000 a month before it is clawed back at 50 cents on the dollar.

#2 El Presidente says wear a mask! on 07.20.20 at 3:58 pm

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
12m
We are United in our effort to defeat the Invisible China Virus, and many people say that it is Patriotic to wear a face mask when you can’t socially distance. There is nobody more Patriotic than me, your favorite President!

..
He must know he’s losing!!.. .. the dude can pivot….deplorable heads just exploded everywhere… but he snuck in a shot to China’s ribs

#3 Dolce Vita on 07.20.20 at 3:59 pm

“You may know how that ends.”

1929 – 1933.

——————-

541 – 549 (Mother Nature’s version of how it ends).

#4 Apocalypse2020 on 07.20.20 at 4:01 pm

“You may know how that ends.”

And the end is nigh.

War with China and Russia and Iran and Korea.

Total global catastrophe and a US civil war.

PREPARE

#5 DoggoneIt on 07.20.20 at 4:02 pm

Tried to reserve a campsite near Prince George, BC.
As of today, they are only accepting reservations from people from northern BC, NWT and Yukon.

I guess all of us from the rest of BC are virus infested.
Could be worse… At least I’m not from Ontario!

#6 Dean on 07.20.20 at 4:07 pm

First!

#7 FreeBird on 07.20.20 at 4:07 pm

Maybe virus was final push to leave GTA?

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en_ca/article/nexjkq/the-very-strong-case-for-moving-the-hell-out-of-toronto

https://globalnews.ca/news/7062983/coronavirus-canadians-leaving-city/amp/

#8 espressobob on 07.20.20 at 4:13 pm

Tough timing the markets at the best of times. Funny how things work out even when the worry worts are parked in cash since they realized losses.

Investing can be a real bitch.

The glass ain’t half empty.

#9 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.20.20 at 4:14 pm

You always take the most flak when you’re right over the target.

#10 Dougie on 07.20.20 at 4:20 pm

When Joe Kennedy began to receive stock tips from the shoe-shine boy, he exited the stock market. This was 1929, shortly before the market collapse. Today, we have Robin Hood rather than the shoe-shine boy. Predictions anyone?

#11 Steve on 07.20.20 at 4:20 pm

I’m glad I found this blog and understood because of you what real investing means. Thanks again! Good luck to the Robinhood guys though…

#12 Tripp on 07.20.20 at 4:23 pm

As fiscal conservatives, my family and I lived within our means, bought an affordable house, paid it in 15 years, travelled with common sense in mind, drive used cars and therefore have no debt. Two incomes in the family, not great but steady and so far, recession-proof. The investments are doing relatively well, not accounting for the unforeseen risks generated by the market feeding frenzy, a virus that we cannot control yet and the inevitable social adjustments it will bring.

Seeing and reading how many Canadians are in financial trouble, I cannot help myself assuming we are in the category that will be the first in line when it comes to paying for the gargantuan national debt.

To paraphrase today’s post final question, how will this end for people that live responsibly?

M52ON

#13 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.20.20 at 4:30 pm

Ontario has had 37740 total cases. 33513 resolved with 2752 deaths. That leaves 1475 remaining cases. In a population of 14 million, at the height of all this, 99.7 percent of the population was unaffected. This is on par with an average flu season. A flu vaccine is 40 percent effective at best, if a vaccine ever comes. Tell me again where the emergency is.

Oh, BTW, this Ontario, the butt of several jokes on how “bad’ this “pandemic” is.

Stop being so irrational. That’s not an insult. Based on the numbers, that’s a fact.

https://covid-19.ontario.ca

#14 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.20.20 at 4:33 pm

Out of the Canadian population of 37 million, 8,800 deaths puts mortality at 0.02%. A.K.A. Your chance of not dying at 99.98%.

#15 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 07.20.20 at 4:36 pm

“Pandemics are temporary”

Define “Temporary”

#16 Ed on 07.20.20 at 4:45 pm

I’m curious which countries are doing the best job fiscally of dealing with COVID so far? (striking a balance between economic support, fiscal sanity and avoiding creating incentives that incentivize people to not work)

#17 Sail Away on 07.20.20 at 4:50 pm

Haha, yep. I wouldn’t necessarily be buying TSLA at this level, but I’ll dang sure stay on the rocket. Cowboy up!

#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.20.20 at 4:56 pm

@#222 Easily Offended karen
“CEF, I love how you make assumptions and miss the point entirely.”

++++

Not DELETED this time.
Impressive.

#19 Rocky Mountain on 07.20.20 at 4:57 pm

What is stopping T2 from deferring the deferrals again in January to lets say for another 4 months to save the spring market?
It wouldn’t cost government a single dollar (what does he care about whining banks) while winning millions of votes (1 million deferral should be around 3 million votes)
Specially so if there is an election coming spring.

#20 IHCTD9 on 07.20.20 at 4:58 pm

#7 FreeBird on 07.20.20 at 4:07 pm
Maybe virus was final push to leave GTA?

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en_ca/article/nexjkq/the-very-strong-case-for-moving-the-hell-out-of-toronto

https://globalnews.ca/news/7062983/coronavirus-canadians-leaving-city/amp/
————

Notice how they’re all young?

If I were a young single dude in 2020, I’d totally be Robbie from the Vice article.

I’d have an old house on a 100 acres of forest, some antique heavy equipment, heat with wood, have a gasified wood burning truck, wood powered genset and a few solar panels, a garden, I’d take up hunting – no end to the fun!

I could live so cheap it might be illegal…

#21 Marco on 07.20.20 at 5:12 pm

#12

To paraphrase today’s post final question, how will this end for people that live responsibly?
—————————————————————

They woke one morning surrounded with BLM crowd, shouting: We are in your house!

#22 What’s the point on 07.20.20 at 5:14 pm

Ya, ya, live within your means. . .who cares. Debt is the new normal globally. Live off others’ dime and enjoy the ride. All the savers are getting punished anyway and living boring lives.

#23 Overheardyou on 07.20.20 at 5:16 pm

Unfortunately it seems the responsibility ship sailed long ago, to quote The Big Short: https://youtu.be/AUoy8YkBhwA?t=207

#24 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.20.20 at 5:16 pm

Garth,
Ryan’s picture of Trudeau as Satan really got the blogdogs worked up.
Maybe it’s better sticking with cute doggie pictures.
I can understand the emotions. These are anxious times. People are hunkered down in their musty basements. Chill pills are in short supply. Some maybe drink too much. And it all adds up.
And you gotta blame somebody. It’s only human.
Thanks for keeping the blog going.

#25 The West on 07.20.20 at 5:16 pm

I won’t post links.

Google: Operation Red Flag, Chinese Aircraft Carriers, Iran China Alliance

…there’s a war brewing here….

#26 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.20.20 at 5:27 pm

The result has been an improvement in personal finances because of the virus, believe it or not.
————–
Does not surprise me at all.
As I posted a few days ago, my family will be saving about 47k this year, mostly because of not going on our usual trips overseas.
Putting one car in storage also saves about 6k, going out for dinner about 3k.
And that’s all after tax.

#27 Stan Brooks on 07.20.20 at 5:33 pm

People have no money, just debt.

#12 Tripp on 07.20.20 at 4:23 pm
You the man/to pay for the monetary stupidities. Congrats.

Robin-hood-ers will not be allowed to fail/as the ‘housing market in Canada is not allowed to fail’.

I suggest CHMC to start ‘insuring’ Robin-hood traded stocks. They are very experienced in insuring junk and record ‘profits’ on top of that.

Cheers,

#28 dr talc on 07.20.20 at 5:43 pm

Kids leaving 416? Try Hungary. Make four babies- pay no income tax for life. Victor Orban gets vilified in all MSM, but he immensely popular. People have said that he could run for President of Poland and win. He doesn’t speak Polish

#29 Millennial 1%er on 07.20.20 at 5:55 pm

@whatsThePoint

>Ya, ya, live within your means. . .who cares. Debt is the new normal globally. Live off others’ dime and enjoy the ride. All the savers are getting punished anyway and living boring lives.

I can see my future.. after saving 20% down (because I know how to use a spreadsheet and don’t want to be in debt for 30 years) I hit the housing market. I then realize I’m competing with kids who got loans from the bank of mama & papa, who are putting 5% down and absolutely creaming me in bids. They’ll come into the house with the home inspector on their first visit; and put in an offer on 20% over asking price & drive away in their teslas (which are on car payments ofc). Awesome, can’t wait.

#30 Karen on 07.20.20 at 5:59 pm

#18, I’ve noticed that one can insult, malign and use ad hominems here until their fingers bleed, but never, ever type ‘fartz’ without the ‘z’. Lesson learned.

#31 VicPaul on 07.20.20 at 6:00 pm

Regarding the picture – I flew to Thunder Bay last Monday and drove Dad’s old SUV across the country last week –
T. Bay to Winnipeg, Win to Regina (hey, QueenCityKid, I listened to “Friday, I’m in love” on rotation), Regina to Banff, and Banff/home.
Hands were washed, masks (N95’s) were worn, distance kept/limited interaction with locals and only when I was turning into the Lodge in Banff for the night did someone yell out, “go home Ontario!” – I smiled and said to myself, “you bet!”.

M56BC

#32 Faron on 07.20.20 at 6:15 pm

#27 Stan Brooks on 07.20.20 at 5:33 pm

“I suggest CHMC to start ‘insuring’ Robin-hood traded stocks

Ha! That’s good. We laugh now, but I hate to think. The fed’s corp bond buying is doing a fair bit to insure the NYSE/NASDAQ. So maybe CMHC can just outsource that job?

#33 SeeB on 07.20.20 at 6:31 pm

#25 The West on 07.20.20 at 5:16 pm

I won’t post links.

Google: Operation Red Flag, Chinese Aircraft Carriers, Iran China Alliance

…there’s a war brewing here….

——————————————————-

I tried to replicate your “research”. I really don’t get how anyone would speculate on such matters and be too afraid to post their “research”.

This is what I found. If you disagree, then provide your own links:

“Operation Red Flag”

From the Nellis Airfoce Base Website (2012)

https://www.nellis.af.mil/Home/Flying-Operations/

“Red Flag is the U.S. Air Force’s premier air-to-air combat training exercise. Participants often include both United States and allied nations’ combat air forces.”

So basically a military air exercise that’s been going on for decades.

——————————————

“Chinese Aircraft Carriers”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/07/02/chinese-navys-missing-aircraft-carrier-found-in-shanghai/#5a7fe00baf2d

“As the name ‘Type-003’ suggests this will bring the Chinese Navy’s aircraft carrier fleet to three. And more are expected, possibly progressing to nuclear power from the 4th hull on. These will be escorted by modern air defense destroyers and cruisers, many of which are being built nearby in Shanghai. They will also benefit from a new generation of nuclear powered attack submarine. The first of these Type-095 Tang Class submarines is expected to be launched soon.”

So basically, this is China about to finish their 3rd Aircraft Carrier. The two active ones are an older Russian Design, and this 3rd one the first of their new line.

The United States has 12 active carriers, 10 Nimitz Class, 2 Gerald Ford class, with 1 Gerald Ford class under construction (~2027) and 2 more on order. (~2030 and ~2037)

How do the new Chinese Carriers stack with the Gerald Fords?

https://www.naval-technology.com/features/future-aircraft-carriers-us-china/

China is going to need to spend hundreds of billions more in order to catch up on that front. We’ll see how quickly they can get these carriers off the line The US has already had that amount of money set aside in their military budget for 70+ years, though clearly their designs are much more expensive than what China is reported to be spending (take that with a grain of salt).

—————————————————

“China Iran Alliance”

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/iran-isnt-the-only-middle-eastern-country-in-a-unique-partnership-with-china/

“Most important is that Iran is not unique in this type of partnership with China. Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have comprehensive strategic partnership agreements and the parameters of these are being negotiated through committees co-chaired by senior officials on all sides. The China-Saudi partnership is being negotiated by a High Level Joint Committee co-chaired by Vice Premier Han Zheng and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The UAE is represented by the country’s first Special Presidential Envoy to China, Khaldoon al Mubarak. His counterpart is Yang Jiechi, one of the Communist Party of China’s (CCP’s) highest-ranking officials. He is a member of the twenty-five-person Politburo, which oversees the CCP, as well as the director of the Office of Foreign Affairs, was a former foreign minister, and is now also special representative to the UAE. That these men have been chosen to steer the bilateral relationships is a clear sign that they are serious partnerships for Beijing and that China is not going to cast them aside for whatever benefits a stronger relationship with Iran would offer.”

Well, it’s not surprising that China would look to vultch deals with a world pariah. Look at North Korea. China is literally the only country left that can do any significant deals with Iran, and I wouldn’t doubt if the terms are heavily against Iran. We’ll see in a few years how much they enjoy Chinese Hegemony over the US or Russia.

#34 Steven Rowlandson on 07.20.20 at 6:38 pm

Just a cover story for mass bankruptcy of the worlds governments and banks. The party and the world as you have known it is over. The mess is real and needs to be cleaned up.

#35 Westcdn on 07.20.20 at 6:43 pm

I fished a lot. I grew up on a salmon spawning ground. That is how fed my Dalmatian when my father said no. There were lots of smoke houses about – the ones on a hill with the fire pit at the bottom. They could run hundreds of feet – I still remember their smell.

I liked jigging for rock cod. 200 pound test line as I often snacked mother earth. There is nothing cute about hooking rock cod – they will eat anything that is smaller than their mouth.

Their heads were 50% of the bodies. So I used them as crab bait. I set multiple traps. I released the females and the small males. One managed to bite me despite my gathering from the backend – hurt like hell.

I boiled them in a burning barrel and smoked my cod from the bark I collected on the beach. Mighty fine eating.

Yeah, I got a pretty goose with preferreds. Other things are working well for me – think gold and silver.

#36 cto on 07.20.20 at 6:44 pm

Don’t know how this ends.
in 2010 it ended with a real estate boom!
didn’t make a lick of sense,…but nothing does anymore when governments and CBs are committed to manipulating all markets though bubble economics.
I think the only way this will end is the hard working Canadian tax payer will feel cheated,…once again.

#37 Linda on 07.20.20 at 6:48 pm

Child care costs might not actually have gone away. I’ve read any number of news articles where parents are paying their childcare providers even though their child isn’t attending the facility in order to ‘hold their spot’. Many of the news articles stated parents were paying full price to boot!

As far as the economy goes, if people are taking CERB regardless of whether they qualify; getting paid under the table; not paying their rent, mortgage or other bills then yes, I can certainly see how that might improve household finances. The fact that will be at the expense of other peoples household finances – oh, well, they are able to afford it. Plus everyone else is doing it, so may as well join the party.

No surprise that Covid may be influencing things for quite a while yet. As per headlines the USA is finally beginning to understand that this is SERIOUS. The loss of enough population to fill a good sized city has begun to sink in, as has the fact that if you have other life threatening health issues – heart attack, stroke, serious injury – getting help may be an issue. No room in the ICU & those health care professionals you expect to be there for you are just a tad busy taking care of the long line of Covid patients that are filling the beds you need. Surprise!

#38 SeeB on 07.20.20 at 6:55 pm

#14 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.20.20 at 4:33 pm

Out of the Canadian population of 37 million, 8,800 deaths puts mortality at 0.02%. A.K.A. Your chance of not dying at 99.98%.

———————————————————-

I hope no one you know is among the 8800 :(

Also, coronavirus comes with a host of other problems, some of which may be worse than death…

https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/4-hour-erection-coronavirus

#39 Ace Goodheart on 07.20.20 at 7:08 pm

Interesting take on the Toronto real estate market upturn:

Last year, 1.3 million in this area would get you a respectable, renovated, slightly overdone trophy house. Your friends and family would think you had “made it”. You could show off the kitchen. The backyard, full of perennials and fountains, would be ideal for an issue of “Better Homes and Gardens”. The upstairs bathroom could be featured on an episode of “Cribs”.

This year, 1.3 million gets you this:

https://www.bungol.ca/map/43.657875&-79.481986&16?listing=497-willard-avenue-toronto-w4830156-4175265

I think it’s haunted. Is that the face of a ghost peeking out behind the curtains, in the back upstairs window, on the left hand side?

Who knows. Prospective buyers were not allowed inside. They could only walk the lot (and only with an appointment).

That didn’t stop the successful bidder on offer night. I guess they had champagne on the sidewalk out side (you might fall through the rotten front porch if you tried to crack a bottle of bubbly there to celebrate “winning” this house). .

#40 Nonplused on 07.20.20 at 7:09 pm

Well, the Spanish flu was followed immediately by the roaring 20’s, so who knows what will happen. But all the thought experiments I have done lead me to conclude things are going to get worse before they get better. Paying people $80 billion not to work has to be inflationary.

In any case the wildcard to me seems to be Nov 3rd. Trump has finally relented and will cancel his rallies until “covid is under control”, but I don’t think it will stop Antifa from rioting outside every single polling station. It could be a very violent election. No matter who wins half the country will not accept the results, but if Trump wins the cities will burn. So enjoy the rest of the summer and use the time to stock up on your toilet paper, canned food, pasta, soda pop, and PPE.

And I don’t get Tesla. It has to be a bubble. At least RIM had a corner on the market when they went to the moon, and look how that turned out. If electric cars ever go mainstream, Tesla will not be the largest producer. It’ll probably be Toyota. The eCorolla. They probably already have a prototype. Makes more sense if you want to be able to charge at home to keep the vehicle small and light rather than building a race car that can do 0-60 in 3.2 seconds and then promptly crash into a parked police car and set itself on fire.

#41 willworkforpickles on 07.20.20 at 7:26 pm

Ours is an economy held together with spit and paste building on lies and deception. There’s this great false smoke and mirrors perception that a glut of cash floats around looking for a new home. With that in essence comes a fear driven FOMO state of mind with regard to real estate and the markets, all the while adding on to today’s inflation with out of control government’s and their spending busy working to creating tomorrow’s hyper-inflation.
So many FOMO’s… Greater Fools and Town Cabbages not seeing the big lie in the picture for what it is but instead believing this will all work itself out somehow and a gasbag monster doesn’t exist or isn’t forming.
The fallout to today’s government largesse is about a year away and has yet to reveal any of it’s real and true nature when all of today’s lies become striped away and cut to the bone.
So it all works and it works… until it doesn’t.

#42 Nonplused on 07.20.20 at 7:27 pm

#5 DoggoneIt on 07.20.20 at 4:02 pm
Tried to reserve a campsite near Prince George, BC.
As of today, they are only accepting reservations from people from northern BC, NWT and Yukon.

I guess all of us from the rest of BC are virus infested.
Could be worse… At least I’m not from Ontario!

———————

Was that a private campground? BC Parks is refusing out-of-province campers, and although if you book a reservation on their system they will accept and keep your money (no refunds) but they will reject the reservation. I would have liked to be on the call when they came up with that policy. I would consider that theft or fraud. Either accept the reservation or don’t, but you can’t take the money and also deny service.
Private campgrounds seem to be open as are hotels and golf courses.

Anyway the locals in BC were growing increasingly hostile to outsiders, especially Albertans, long before covid. I guess they would rather we spend our money elsewhere.

#43 Tim123 on 07.20.20 at 7:29 pm

It seems like things are way out of control in the markets so I am making a contrarian call and raising cash and buying some S&P 500 puts just in case. August and September are high volatility times in the markets so I hope I am right with my call. There is chasing the stocks to an extent and I think it is a bit overdone.

#44 Flop... on 07.20.20 at 7:32 pm

Been trying to use Straya as a yardstick to see if Captain Showbag is out of control or not.

The tale of the tape so far, due to be updated on Thursday ( Wednesday Creepy Coast Time) is that for the 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 Australian fiscal years the current measurement is 285 billion, contrasting the 343 billion one year deficit deficit for Justin Beaverland.

Is CERB out of control?

I thought so originally, but my research showed apparently the Australia was putting more emphasis on this with a tiered system that takes into account who you are shacked up with and if you have any offspring.

CERB version in Australia is slightly more and with a max closer to $2700 a month, but likely the bulk would be receiving around $2,120.

When I originally looked into the Australian version it was meant to be shutting down in late September, Prime Minister Scott Morrison apparently issued a statement yesterday that said it would be continued in light of what is happening in Victoria.

So the whole country is going to get CERB, or Jobseeker, with a Covid-19 enhancement because of goings on in one state?

The Prime Minister of this country recently said the Liberals would use “best international practices” so maybe because the Aussies have gone down to Bondi Beach and jumped the shark, it is now probably a forgone conclusion that is what’s going to happen here.

If you look at the timing of certain announcements, they are looking and planning 2 months out.

One more hiccup, and this thing goes into next year.

Belch…

M46BC

#45 Nonplused on 07.20.20 at 7:37 pm

#14 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.20.20 at 4:33 pm
Out of the Canadian population of 37 million, 8,800 deaths puts mortality at 0.02%. A.K.A. Your chance of not dying at 99.98%.

———————-

Forest fires start small too. Sometimes just a cigarette tossed out the car window.

We are only 100 days in. All you folks out there saying it isn’t all that bad based on total population are not looking at it right. Most of the population hasn’t caught it yet, but they will. What you need to look at is what it does to people who have caught it, and from that perspective it ain’t no seasonal flu.

#46 Nurses on Parade on 07.20.20 at 7:44 pm

Can’t stop, won’t stop, the party that is.

This virus is raging.

It is like a spark in a dry Okanagan forest. One minute, no cases, the next minute full on waves of sick people and it goes exponential.

BC might be getting its first dose of massive uptick.

Active case trend line going straight up.

Pretty obvious all of this goes hand in hand with reopening.

Political decisions: if we go to next stage reopening, X number of people with die, X number of people will get infected and X number of economic activity will be generated.

In reality, undisciplined festival going Canadians are no match for the virus. Mandated policy or let it rage.

#47 trumptards on 07.20.20 at 7:51 pm

@ 14 face palm *did all 37 million get infected?
#14 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.20.20 at 4:33 pm
Out of the Canadian population of 37 million, 8,800 deaths puts mortality at 0.02%. A.K.A. Your chance of not dying at 99.98%.

#48 Tyberius on 07.20.20 at 7:54 pm

#15 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 07.20.20 at 4:36 pm

“Pandemics are temporary”

Define “Temporary”
++++++++++++++++++++++

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing! After all, “Income Tax” was ‘temporary’ too (to pay for WWI, so they claimed).

As far as I’m concerned, the concept of a Pandemic will not be ‘temporary’ – rather, it’s going to be the newest ‘tool’ for the elites to get the masses fearful, and thus obedient and compliant (as TN has frequently suggested).

Welcome to the ‘New World Order’!

#49 tccontrarian on 07.20.20 at 8:15 pm

“None of this is normal. Understand that. In a way we’re living in a delusional time, walking through cities emptied of commerce and profits, amid the detritus of failed businesses with Depression-era joblessness, yet people have money and confidence. They’re buying houses, taking on new debt, speculating and looking for all the world like grasshoppers.

You may know how that ends.” GT
////////////////////////////////////////

A rhetorical statement, if there ever was one!

Thanks to Robinhood ‘investors’, and other ‘newbies’ who thought to use CERB money in investing for the 1st time in their lives, along CBs supporting the ‘delusional’ valuations for as long as posible (or, the cynic in me thinks, till their family and friends have time to sell at the top???), I’d say it will end as a disaster for many.

Meanwhile, I’m happy to have the opportunity to be shorting the likes of Tesla at $1,650+ as fair value is probably <$300. There's a love-affair with Tech as 'hot'money seems to be going there these days.

Interesting times indeed!
TCC

#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.20.20 at 8:22 pm

@#30 Easily Offended karen
“Lesson learned.”

++++

You never stop learning.

#51 Cdn Mom on 07.20.20 at 8:23 pm

#7 FreeBird on 07.20.20 at 4:07 pm
Maybe virus was final push to leave GTA?
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en_ca/article/nexjkq/the-very-strong-case-for-moving-the-hell-out-of-toronto

………..
LOLOLOLOL. Thanks for that! All those community names in the article are a short drive, east of the Sault. I knew the first guy back around 89/90, before he headed west to Van.

I’ve posted here a few times how cheap it is to live up here in the Sault area. I’m right on Lake Superior, more than an acre, 20 minute drive to town (little traffic…pass maybe 3 cars), 45 minute flight to Billy Bishop in Toronto. Houses on my road, all waterfront, run usually around $250. (Acre lots start around $65.) We got ours 5 years ago at $155 cuz it needed work. Taxes about $800 annually. Great neighbours. Sunsets right in my window, over the water, about four months of the year.

I’ve lived downtown Toronto, Guelph, greater Van, Fraser Valley, north shore of Lakes Huron and Superior. This is the best I’ve found. And about the cheapest.

#52 Deplorable Dude on 07.20.20 at 8:29 pm

#15 Somethings up…”
“Pandemics are temporary”

Define “Temporary”

—————-

Well look back at this as ‘Pandemic Year 1……..‘

——————-

Random thoughts…..original CDC estimate was 2.2M dead. So Trump is on target for a 10th of that by year end.

The markets are completely fake. Valuations are nonsensical when the Fed is directly buying equities.

Liberal media are in full out panic porn mode now. Only thing that matters is rising case count…..never mind deaths/Hospitalizations are flat or dropping nationally.

Gotta scare the masses.

This all goes away instantly on Nov 3rd if Trump loses.

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.20.20 at 8:35 pm

@#33 SeeB
If you want a good insight to where the South China Sea and Chinese military doctrine is moving.
An excellent book written in 2015
The South China Sea ( The struggle for power in Asia) by Bill Haydon

or

Destined for War ( Can America and China escape Thucydides’s Trap?) by Graham Allison published in 2019.

Both books have very strong arguments with excellent facts to back up their assertion that, as China grows stronger, they cannot avoid a confrontation with the USA.
I suspect it will be over Taiwan.
Within the next 2-5 years.

#54 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.20.20 at 8:40 pm

#30 Karen on 07.20.20 at 5:59 pm
#18, I’ve noticed that one can insult, malign and use ad hominems here until their fingers bleed, but never, ever type ‘fartz’ without the ‘z’. Lesson learned

—–

I love it when people say they are being attacked ad hominem, in a way that makes ad hominem a return insult to the person rather than the argument… It just always makes chuckle… Some people are so oblivious to their own hypocrisy…

As if ad hominem isn’t a part of debate makes me laugh too..

#55 truefacts on 07.20.20 at 8:43 pm

@#13 Bytor the Snow Dog…let’s see all the stats:

2,752 “Covid” deaths in Ontario so far…
109,173 total deaths in 2019 in Ontario (pre-Covid)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/444895/number-of-deaths-in-canada-by-province/

Odds of dying by lightening:
** 1 in 161,856 **

https://www.nsc.org/work-safety/tools-resources/injury-facts/chart

Odds of dying from Covid in a place that did not shut down (Sweden) if you’re under 50 = 71/10,099,265

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

** or 1 in 142,243 **

SO THE ODDS of dying from Covid if they DON’T shut down if you’re under 50 is only slightly higher than getting struck by lightening according to the data.

Can we not just implement health protocols in long-term care facilities (where most Covid deaths have occurred), allow business to open 1 hour for seniors/health compromised people, and get on with our lives???

#56 Nonplused on 07.20.20 at 8:44 pm

#49 tccontrarian

“Meanwhile, I’m happy to have the opportunity to be shorting the likes of Tesla at $1,650+ as fair value is probably <$300."

More like fair value is probably <-$1650. (Note the minus sign). But you can't fight a bubble until everyone realizes they have more tulips than they know what to do with. That day is not today for Tesla, but it is coming. And remember, it is always better to panic early and avoid the crowds (but that does not include shorting, there is no evidence that people have stopped buying Tesla tulips). One day you are thinking "do I really need more toilet paper? Well my cart isn't full and it is on sale." The next day you are thinking "how on earth can there be no toilet paper?" Well, there will be plenty of toilet paper in the future if Tesla owners take delivery of their stocks.

#57 T on 07.20.20 at 8:44 pm

#13 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.20.20 at 4:30 pm
Ontario has had 37740 total cases. 33513 resolved with 2752 deaths. That leaves 1475 remaining cases. In a population of 14 million, at the height of all this, 99.7 percent of the population was unaffected. This is on par with an average flu season. A flu vaccine is 40 percent effective at best, if a vaccine ever comes. Tell me again where the emergency is.

Oh, BTW, this Ontario, the butt of several jokes on how “bad’ this “pandemic” is.

Stop being so irrational. That’s not an insult. Based on the numbers, that’s a fact.

https://covid-19.ontario.ca

#14 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.20.20 at 4:33 pm
Out of the Canadian population of 37 million, 8,800 deaths puts mortality at 0.02%. A.K.A. Your chance of not dying at 99.98%.

————

Ok, I’ll bite.

If Ontario didn’t go into full lockdown the infection numbers would be much higher. We don’t lockdown for an average flu season, yet the numbers are similar to an average flu season. Figure it out.

You don’t use the entire population to calculate a mortality rate, you use the total infected. Now, understandably there has been more infected than what we know but it still is only a fraction of the population thanks to the lockdowns.

#58 T on 07.20.20 at 8:47 pm

#54 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.20.20 at 8:40 pm
#30 Karen on 07.20.20 at 5:59 pm
#18, I’ve noticed that one can insult, malign and use ad hominems here until their fingers bleed, but never, ever type ‘fartz’ without the ‘z’. Lesson learned

—–

I love it when people say they are being attacked ad hominem, in a way that makes ad hominem a return insult to the person rather than the argument… It just always makes chuckle… Some people are so oblivious to their own hypocrisy…

As if ad hominem isn’t a part of debate makes me laugh too..

————

The commenter goes by ‘Karen’. Their comments are in line with a typical Karen and absolutely hilarious.

#59 Tripp on 07.20.20 at 8:59 pm

#27 Stan Brooks on 07.20.20 at 5:33 pm

Stan, I get the sarcasm, and enjoy it!

Seriously now, how is the middle class (whatever it means) going to preserve their status, help the country grow and bail-out the indebted? We can’t rely on the rich only, there are too few of them…

#60 Faron on 07.20.20 at 9:10 pm

#52 Deplorable Dude on 07.20.20 at 8:29 pm

..never mind deaths/Hospitalizations are flat or dropping nationally.

Nope. Seriously, look at the data right now out of the US. Deaths are up for two weeks straight now. The death count is accelerating and has been for two weeks now as have hospitalization. That’s over a whole country. More locally, conditions are worse.

#61 Wrk.dover on 07.20.20 at 9:16 pm

Can cash held within a self directed investment account crash over night and have a stop loss order in place forbidding the spending of it when the markets open?

It pays the same dividend as some stocks do, and will buy as many or more shares in most cases as it did in January.

I didn’t BTFD because D might have meant depression after ten years of Fed propping and NO interest increases.

#62 George S on 07.20.20 at 9:18 pm

Bytor, you may be misinterpreting the numbers that are reported by various public health agencies around the world and in Canada.
The only thing you can say from the death numbers is that quite a few people are dying. There is no way of knowing what the actual death rate is because the number of active cases is constantly changing and many people with few or no symptoms are not tested.
The other things that throws a wrench into the death and infection numbers is that every country on earth has declared a total lockdown to some degree. There is no way of knowing what the effects of these measures are.
In Canada the cases have yet to overload the ICUs which may or may not occur.
If the control measures were all suddenly lifted and everything was allowed to run its course you would likely see way more people die because in spite of what you are declaring the death rate of COVID-19 is substantially higher than the seasonal flu according to all legitimate medical professional sources.

If you look into other statistics about various ways of dying you will find that 40,000 people per year in Canada die of a random cardiac arrest, totally unpredictable, healthy people of every age, one every 14 minutes on average. Nobody even thinks about it because it is only about 1 out of 1000 people or roughly 0.1%. About the same number die of smoking related disease. People still smoke for some reason.

#63 cuke and tomato picker on 07.20.20 at 9:45 pm

BC has opened things and we have spiked by 102 new
covid 19 cases today which is very concerning. Also if you are interested goggle what the owner of the Brexit Pub owner in Penticton BC thinks of tourists.

#64 TurnerNation on 07.20.20 at 9:46 pm

Today’s picture say it all. This is War (WW3) . The enemy? Us. We were conquered in one week, back in March.
Only two news stories – and they are – are allowed these days: CV and White/Black.
This type of global control system is not going away; the lockdowns will be well into 2021. The numbers on the telescreens leading the way. People begging for their own enslavement.
Ontario is ready: our dictator already extended the fictional State of Emergency into 2021.
The numbers in USA will be held over our heads. People watching them on their telescreens, frightened by the shadows on the walls in their cave.
Ask your relatives in USA, what’s going on? It will be wall to wall healthy people.
What did you expect?

Here are the figures which rule our lives:

https://www.wtnh.com/news/health/coronavirus/state-public-health-lab-discovered-false-positive-covid-19-
test-results/

“The flaw led to 90 of 144 people tested between June 15- July 17 to receive a false positive COVID test report.”

#65 AM in MN on 07.20.20 at 9:57 pm

Linda –
“As per headlines the USA is finally beginning to understand that this is SERIOUS. The loss of enough population to fill a good sized city has begun to sink in”

The biggest difference here from a REAL pandemic (the numbers call for a downgrade to epidemic) is that we see it all in real time, in front of us 24/7.

200,000 dead out of 330 Million, a large portion of them in nursing homes (80% in MN), doesn’t put a dent in demand for things like food and housing.

What it does do is make a huge change to the economy. Hard to enjoy flying to Vegas for the weekend if you are scared of dying! Reality is less important than perception. Same with pro sports….it just doesn’t matter anymore. Having armies of government flunkies flying on junkets all over the place, now stopped, might be a good thing?

Losing a year of your kids education matters, but so many aren’t being taught what’s most important anyway. Parents worried that their kids are going to be behind in the 3 R’s might start to ask questions about why they spend so much time in school focusing on transgenderism and whiteness. Such questioning would be a good thing!

A re-orientation to the things that matter will be a good thing long term. This includes a focus on family.

#66 Gogo on 07.20.20 at 10:02 pm

We have CERB that cannot be stopped, rates that cannot go up, market that cannot go down. Welcome to socialism.

#67 CERBNation on 07.20.20 at 10:20 pm

#64 TurnerNation on 07.20.20 at 9:46 pm
Today’s picture say it all. This is War (WW3) . The enemy? Us. We were conquered in one week, back in March.
….
Well you were easy to conquer.. they own you..lost in the paranoid echo chambers of your mind

#68 Karen on 07.20.20 at 10:20 pm

#14 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.20.20 at 4:33 pm
Out of the Canadian population of 37 million, 8,800 deaths puts mortality at 0.02%. A.K.A. Your chance of not dying at 99.98%
————————————————————–
Too funny! I love this place.

#69 DrC on 07.20.20 at 10:27 pm

This grasshopper story will end differently. The government will print money until it won’t mean anything to the people. The ones with a lot of debt will be depressed for a while then everybody will understand that having an equity that you can actually touch means everything. The stocks will keep climbing until the central banks will keep printing. Then after a huge depression a new monetary system will be created where minimum 40% of the national currency will have to be backed by gold. So buying gold might not be such a bad idea after all. But not yet. Not until the stock market rises faster than the price of the gold.

#70 SoggyShorts on 07.20.20 at 10:28 pm

#55 truefacts on 07.20.20 at 8:43 pm
[Sweden vs Canada]
SO THE ODDS of dying from Covid if they DON’T shut down if you’re under 50 is only slightly higher than getting struck by lightening according to the data.

********************
You are mistakenly thinking that Canadians would have the same result.
E.G. On Easter weekend (a major skiing holiday in Sweden) the ski hills shut down. Not because they had to, but because it was the right thing to do.
Travel dropped by over 40%. Not because they had to, but because it was the right thing to do.
8 in 10 Swedes have been Social distancing. Not because they had to, but because it was the right thing to do.

It’s just a different society. Did you know that over 50% of homes in Sweden are single occupant?
There’s a whole list of reasons why Sweden has had “reasonable” results that wouldn’t be replicated elsewhere.

#71 ppsez on 07.20.20 at 10:29 pm

Has anybody seen a licence plate CERB? please take a picture & send it to Garth.

#72 Totalchaos on 07.20.20 at 10:33 pm

1) The Fraser Health Authority is using the assumption the pandemic will go on for 2 years. Plan accordingly.

2) The concern about covid is not that everyone will die, it’s that hospitals will be overwhelmed and people will die needlessly as a result. Making more ventilators or converting unused schools to hospitals isn’t the answer because you need well trained staff. Want this to end? Wear a mask, wash your hands, be kind and leave the epidemiology to the epidemiologists.

3) The BLM comments from the white affluent men on this blog both sadden and amuse me. If you have ever in your life said “I’m not racist, but…” you have contributed to the problem. You can make amends now by listening, believing and being kind.

#73 Long-Time Lurker on 07.20.20 at 10:54 pm

>Covid-19 Cure Comparison 1: Jair Bolsonaro with Hydroxychloroquine versus Boris Johnson without Hydroxychloroquine.

>1. Jair Bolsonaro was confirmed Covid-19 positive on July 7th. He takes hydroxychloroquine. He looks ill on July 15. On July 19th, which is 12 days later, Bolsonaro looks much healthier. Bolsonaro never requires hospitalization or invasive treatment.

Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro sways gently as he attends flag ceremony outside official residence after revealing he is still testing positive for coronavirus – but says symptoms are ‘nothing serious’

-He first announced he had been infected by the killer disease on July 7
-The median time from onset to clinical recovery is approximately two weeks

By DARREN BOYLE FOR MAILONLINE

PUBLISHED: 20:40 EDT, 15 July 2020 | UPDATED: 21:59 EDT, 15 July 2020

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said he has tested positive for the new coronavirus for a second time, following his July 7 announcement that he had COVID-19.

‘I did the test yesterday, and at night the result came back that I am still positive for coronavirus,’ Bolsonaro said.

‘I hope that in the coming days I will do another test and, God willing, everything will be all right to return soon to activity.’

The far-right leader said he hasn’t experienced serious symptoms of the disease as he isolates at the presidential residence in capital of Brasilia.

The poorly looking president was pictured attending a flag lowering ceremony at the Alvorada Palace in Brasilia last night…

He is treating his COVID-19 with the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine, although it has not been proven effective against the virus….

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8528081/Brazils-poorly-looking-president-Jair-Bolsonaro-attends-flag-lowering-ceremony.html

Bolsonaro Greets Supporters After Testing Positive for Covid-19
1,993 views•Jul 19, 2020

…Bolsonaro also said that he is feeling well, and defended the use of the anti-malarial medicine hydroxychloroquine to treat the coronavirus….

Bloomberg QuickTake News

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlVHeRaPtFo

#74 Long-Time Lurker on 07.20.20 at 10:58 pm

>Covid 19 Cure Comparison 2: Boris Johnson without Hydroxychloroquine versus Jair Bolsonaro with Hydroxychloroquine.

>2. Boris Johnson tested positive for Covid 19 on March 27th. He was admitted to St. Thomas’ Hospital’s intensive care unit on April 6th, which is 10 days later. He required ventilation of his lungs and constant monitoring in order to survive. On April 9th, Johnson is moved out of intensive care, which is 13 days later.

U.K.’s Boris Johnson Discharged From Hospital, But Isn’t Yet Ready to Govern

BY BILLY PERRIGO AND MADELINE ROACHE UPDATED: APRIL 12, 2020 11:34 AM EDT | ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: APRIL 6, 2020 12:11 PM EDT

…Johnson was the first world leader to test positive for the coronavirus on March 27. He was admitted to the hospital on April 5 and moved to intensive care the following day….

…Johnson also singled out two nurses — a woman from New Zealand and a man from Portugal — who stood by his bedside. “The reason in the end my body did start to get enough oxygen was because for every second of the night they were watching and they were thinking and they were caring and making the interventions I needed,” Johnson said….

…On April 9, Johnson was moved out of intensive care where he had already been receiving treatment for three days after being diagnosed with COVID-19, authorities said…

https://time.com/5816252/boris-johnson-hospitalized/

#75 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.20.20 at 11:03 pm

#57 T on 07.20.20 at 8:44 pm

Ok, I’ll bite.

If Ontario didn’t go into full lockdown the infection numbers would be much higher. We don’t lockdown for an average flu season, yet the numbers are similar to an average flu season. Figure it out.

The problem with this T, if we won’t allow these comparisons, you can’t compare to the flu either way then. Flu is only tested once admitted to hospital, so there are many walking around with the influenza flu that don’t get tested. Very difficult to know the true infection rate of seasonal influenza flu. People do die from complications with the flu every year, that is fact. The hospitals are overwhelmed every year with the flu, that is also fact. The seasonal flu rips through LTC homes, again, a fact. We do not shutdown everything for them, and most people never think twice about it. But where people get to be sticky is if they believe this virus is more deadly. Here the numbers point to yes, covid-19 appears to be more deadly than the seasonal flu, to a certain demographic.

Personally, I don’t think we’re going to have a full picture of this covid for years, ie actual incubation period, fatality rate, r0, whether or not asymptomatic carriers actually are source of any spread… I can honestly say, I am unsure what the correct response to this was, but I lean to the overplayed. However, I’m not a scofflaw, so I’m not breaking any rules because of my personal views of it.

There are some absolutely brilliant people working on this file, but it would seem that there’s just as many idiots working on it as well. This may become (likely already is) the most studied virus as a result, and that’s going to be a good thing, since the coronaviruses have been a bit hard to deal with in the past. I originally went to school for Microbiology, before switching to Engineering and my wife is in healthcare, so I’ve been absolutely amazed at the general lack of knowledge of viruses, and even just personal hygiene. So an increased awareness of these things will only be better in the long run.

I think we can all agree on the heavy politicization of this virus though…

#76 CalgaryCarGuy on 07.20.20 at 11:03 pm

Re #40 by Nonplused
Makes more sense if you want to be able to charge at home to keep the vehicle small and light rather than building a race car that can do 0-60 in 3.2 seconds and then promptly crash into a parked police car and set itself on fire.
——————————————————————
Hey Nonplused! It sounds like you have the same opinion of Tesla’s like I do. I refer to them as the new Pinto. A giant POS.

#77 Realist on 07.20.20 at 11:09 pm

I see a ever so slight shift in your narrative Garth….I guess its not a nothing burger after all. You know what I’m talking about.

#78 CalgaryCarGuy on 07.20.20 at 11:23 pm

Re #42 by Nonplused
Anyway the locals in BC were growing increasingly hostile to outsiders, especially Albertans, long before covid. I guess they would rather we spend our money elsewhere.
——————————————————-
Wow, two posts in a row by you that make me pipe up. Yes, B.C. locals have been bitching about Albertans in their province for decades. Never mind the fact that B.C. basically runs on Alberta money. It’s like when you go to Hawaii and find out the locals hate tourists. Go figure. Anyways, I have been hoping Albertans do stay away from B.C. this year…and maybe the year after that for good measure. I know the small business owners in B.C. are already pleading for Alberta tourists to return. I guess they should take that up with their ‘locals’. The ones who are keying cars with Alberta plates. This year seems to have lots of people tempting Karma in so many ways. Justin Trudeau, people not paying rent, B.C. slagging Albertans, heck the rest of Canada kicking Alberta when we’re down. Yup. Karma will come…just watch. Especially Trudeau…he is really ripe for a major fall. The only thing he hasn’t done yet is step on a rake as he comes out of his cottage. We can hope.

#79 Fran Freeman on 07.20.20 at 11:40 pm

Denmark dismantles “Vote Ghettos” while Trudeau reinforces them. Denmark is often cited by liberals as idyllic , but the Danes, as well as the EU , have stated that integration must replace a failed multicultural experiment imported by Pierre Trudeau as an election manipulation device. What do you think?

Do we allow Trudeau to stuff fractured GTA ridings with dependant ghetto votes or do we ask immigrants to instead take Canada to heart? Trudeau’s divisive tactics will only result in what Europe has already experienced, chaos, isolation and violence. Do we need to learn through failure? What a waste that would be.

CNN: Denmark is a liberal paradise for many people, but the reality is very different for immigrants.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/20/europe/denmark-ghetto-relocation-intl/index.html

#80 AisA on 07.20.20 at 11:48 pm

#196 AisA on 04.09.20 at 10:45 pm

For everyone thinking this is temporary, you should first answer the question “was the response in any way commensurate with the threat” if your answer is to the posed question is no, the answer is no.

There are some very serious issues that the relatively used to be free world needs to resolve ASAP and those questions are not even on the table thanks to the virus porn.

Not much has changed has it? Two weeks to flatten the curve remember….

#81 KleinRod on 07.21.20 at 12:01 am

The question shouldn’t be “what happens when the CERB ends?”… the question should be “what happens when people realize the CERB will never end?”.

#82 Km on 07.21.20 at 12:29 am

@nonplussed
Your right it isn’t like the seasonal flu, most people won’t even know they have had it.

#83 Buy? Curious? on 07.21.20 at 3:46 am

I love Garth! I respect him and I’m grateful to him for this blog. I make take the urine out some of his opinions and make fun of his fashion sense but it actually makes him cooler in a way. (I’m getting to my point) If any of you deluded Canadians ever read any of Aesop’s fables you know the story of the Grasshopper and the Ant. *SPOILER ALERT* the ant saves the grasshopper’s butt. Who cares how virtuous the ant is/was? In the end, Hoppers party, Ants work. Is that not the case today? Ask me how much money I have to my name! Go on, ask! I’ll tell you, it’s zero! Nadda. Zip. But does that stop me from doing anything? Heck, I writing this from my latest iPhone, a leather sofa, while watching my new puppy. (Second best advice from Garth that I acted on) I’m great, handsome, fit and healthy but also lazy and unambitious. Why? Because someone can work while I party! Who do you love? It’s me, that’s who!

https://youtu.be/mFT3yacQLeI

#84 Freedom First on 07.21.20 at 4:42 am

Yes, I do know how it ends. Great blog today with some really good comments too. Greater Fool is a national treasure.

Freedom First

#85 Howard on 07.21.20 at 6:46 am

#7 FreeBird on 07.20.20 at 4:07 pm
Maybe virus was final push to leave GTA?

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en_ca/article/nexjkq/the-very-strong-case-for-moving-the-hell-out-of-toronto

https://globalnews.ca/news/7062983/coronavirus-canadians-leaving-city/amp/

————————————

An added push factor to leave Toronto :

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/goldstein-politicians-silent-as-toronto-gun-crime-skyrockets

Last year, in what now passes for the “new normal” in Toronto, shootings and firearms discharges were up 88% (492) and the number of victims injured or killed up 32% (284) compared to 2005 — both at their highest levels in 16 years.

Despite the record levels of gun violence last year, shootings and firearms discharges so far this year are up 18% (234) compared to this time in 2019 (198). While the number of victims injured or killed is down 4% (107 vs 111), the number killed is up 33% (24 versus 18).

As alarming as these numbers are, they pale in comparison to what has happened on the streets of Toronto since 2014 when there were 177 shootings and firearms discharges and 103 victims injured or killed.

Last year, shootings and firearms discharges were up 178% (492) compared to 2014 (177) while the number of people injured or killed was up 176% (284) compared to 2014 (103).

It does feel like we’re on the cusp of another 1970s/80s flight to the suburbs.

#86 Sybu Mathew on 07.21.20 at 6:51 am

Yes, the Impact of virus on the market is high. But in every crisis there is an opportunity. You can stop or bypass. Its really a time to analyze our strengths & weaknesses.

#87 Do we have all the facts on 07.21.20 at 8:02 am

All we here about through the mainstream media is the growing number of people being infected in North America by the Covid 19 virus. The primary result from this negative focus is to fan the flames of fear and stall economic recovery of the Canadian economy.

With so much at stake for Canada this focus on negative information begs the question what the true objectives of our media and our governments really are,

3.8 million Canadians tested for the Covid 19 virus and
111,124, or less than 3.0%, tested Positive for the virus including tens of thousands of residents in long term care facilities. If those positive tests could be set aside the infection rate within the general population would fall below 2.0%.

Of the 111,124 citizens who tested positive for the virus only 4,792 are still being monitored by health authorities.
Think about that for a minute! Less than 0.3 of 1.0% of
the general population tested for the Covid 19 virus are being monitored by health authorities. That means that 99.75 % of those tested for the virus are A OK.

At what point do we decide to get back to normal. How long is our fear of a second or third wave of a virus that imposes a threat to less than 1/3 of one percent of those tested going to last.

Where is this fear coming from. We are not the United States, or Brazil, or any other hot spot. Why are we focussing on the infection rates in other Countries when there is clear evidence that the risk of serious illness or death within the general population of Canada is so low.
Remember that about 2.0% of the general population infected by the Covid 19 virus required monitoring by a health authority and 98% of those infected had no symptoms or fully recovered.

How low does the chance of serious illness or death from the Covid 19 virus within the general population have to get before we can get back to normal. We need to focus on a revival of the Canadian economy as quickly as possible and to demand that our media start focussing on the real problems facing Canadian citizens.

If we don’ take action soon it may result in consequences that will make the last four months look like a picnic!

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.21.20 at 8:19 am

@#68 Easily Offended karen
“Too funny! I love this place.”

++++

It may explain why you keep coming back.

#89 Victor V on 07.21.20 at 8:34 am

New rent repayment rules could lead to flood of evictions, advocates warn

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/07/20/new-rent-repayment-rules-could-lead-to-flood-of-evictions-advocates-warn.html

#90 Al on 07.21.20 at 8:35 am

Government offices like the Landlord & Tenant Board stay shut but the government staff are still getting paid while physically distancing in Muskoka and landlords get shafted by professional tenants. Welcome to Ford’s “for the taxpayer” government.

#91 Ejeff on 07.21.20 at 8:35 am

#62 George S

Sorry George, but “healthy people” don’t just suddenly die from cardiac arrest.

#92 Ramshackle on 07.21.20 at 8:39 am

#87 Do we have all the facts on 07.21.20 at 8:02 am

“All we here about through the mainstream media is the growing number of people being infected..”

—–

As soon as I saw the word “here” I knew your post would be weak minded. I was not disappointed.

Trump supporter?

#93 TurnerNation on 07.21.20 at 8:51 am

Did you know…in the global New System private property ownership is to be removed? This is why we are being distracted. Low interest rates are to suck everybody in. Classic shell game.
No-one will come to your front door and take your house, no. Then how?
Incrementalism. And it’s begun.

– Last evening a blog dog mentioned their home was re-zoned into mutli storey. If taxation becomes untenable, you will sell to developers.
– If the city takes 5% of your home’s value in taxation each year, and the market is flat or falling, how many years until you have Zero equity – and ownership of nothing?
– Add a 5-10% regular “home equity tax”. Now many shortened years till your equity is zip?

That’s how it’s done. The devil is in the details. Don’t take my word for it: World Economic Form
https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/

– In short, as I’ve been saying here for months: The Crown Bankers are using their Crown Virus to take back Crown Land. Get off.

#94 Karen on 07.21.20 at 9:07 am

#88 CF

Duh? Yeah, if people find the comments amusing, they come back. Aren’t you a genius for stating the obvious.

#95 Sail Away on 07.21.20 at 9:14 am

#91 Ejeff on 07.21.20 at 8:35 am
#62 George S

Sorry George, but “healthy people” don’t just suddenly die from cardiac arrest.

——————-

Except, of course, when they do:

https://www.medicalwesthospital.org/sudden-cardiac-death.php

#96 TurnerNation on 07.21.20 at 9:40 am

#87 Do we have all the facts – all those years we were told that the overseas Bogeyman ‘hated our way of life’.
Flip that statement and every one, 180 degrees to make sense, now you know who it really way. They dropped the MOAB – economic bom – onto us this year, along with destroying all our culture and way of life. They won’t be letting up soon. More and more rules and laws coming.
Q3-4 might bring Second Wave of Business bankruptcies, once patios close.
This is forced re-education, fear-based programming on a global scale.

#97 Dharma Bum on 07.21.20 at 9:41 am

COVID-19 is such a blessing.

It made grocery stores realize that their outdated system for cashier line ups was stupid. It forced them to adopt the same system that banks have used for decades. Same as the customs and security line ups at the airport.

One line. When you get to the front, you go to the next available cashier.

No decisions to make about which line to get in.

And, being a “senior”, I practically get the whole store to myself for an hour on any given day.

Thanks COVID, you are the BEST!

#98 Lambchop on 07.21.20 at 9:45 am

#92 Ramshackle on 07.21.20 at 8:39 am
#87 Do we have all the facts on 07.21.20 at 8:02 am

“All we here about through the mainstream media is the growing number of people being infected..”

—–

As soon as I saw the word “here” I knew your post would be weak minded. I was not disappointed.

Trump supporter

____________

And you are…?
One spelling mistake or autocorrect error does not negate an entire comment or poster’s credibility.

Your unnecessary attack and name calling however, speaks volumes about your character and personality.

#99 Ejeff on 07.21.20 at 9:49 am

#95 Sail Away

Did you read the link you provided? Did you happen to notice the risk factors?

Sure it is possible, but highly unlikely to die of sudden cardiac arrest. George implied it’s the norm.

In addition, if you go to the website you provided and look at the education tab, it’s quite hilarious. They talk about exercise being most important and then diet. At that point I know I would not take these doctors seriously.

#100 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.21.20 at 9:52 am

#92 Ramshackle on 07.21.20 at 8:39 am
#87 Do we have all the facts on 07.21.20 at 8:02 am

“All we here about through the mainstream media is the growing number of people being infected..”

—–

As soon as I saw the word “here” I knew your post would be weak minded. I was not disappointed.

Trump supporter?

—–

Don’t be pretentious… It’s more embarrassing to point out the spelling mistake than to make them in the world of autocorrect…

#101 Karen on 07.21.20 at 10:08 am

Bytor, please do more COVID-19 math for us today. I could use another good laugh.

#102 Phylis on 07.21.20 at 10:10 am

Hey Garth, how about officially designating a pedant for the comments? (Or two for backup)

#103 truefacts on 07.21.20 at 10:15 am

@#70 Soggyshorts…

I am not advocating no precautions. I did say:

“Can we not just implement health protocols in long-term care facilities (where most Covid deaths have occurred), allow business to open 1 hour for seniors/health compromised people, and get on with our lives???”

My concern is that the cure ends up being worse than the disease. Nothing is free or without consequence. The over $300 billion we’ve spent is not free. If we spent a portion of that to improve long-term health care, would that have saved more lives overall? If so, we that not be a better allocation of resources? What are the side costs of the shut down? What health effects will lost jobs, a ruined economy, etc have on people?

There is no free lunch and sometimes the cure can be worse than the disease…we have to be careful, imo.

#104 ain't life rand on 07.21.20 at 10:18 am

@#98 Lambchop on 07.21.20 at 9:45 am
#92 Ramshackle on 07.21.20 at 8:39 am
#87 Do we have all the facts on 07.21.20 at 8:02 am

“All we here about through the mainstream media is the growing number of people being infected..”

—–

As soon as I saw the word “here” I knew your post would be weak minded. I was not disappointed.

Trump supporter

____________

And you are…?
One spelling mistake or autocorrect error does not negate an entire comment or poster’s credibility.

Your unnecessary attack and name calling however, speaks volumes about your character and personality.

spelling nazis are the worst.
unless you don’t know the difference between lose and loose. that’s unacceptable lol

#105 ain't life rand on 07.21.20 at 10:20 am

@#94 Karen on 07.21.20 at 9:07 am
#88 CF

Duh? Yeah, if people find the comments amusing, they come back. Aren’t you a genius for stating the obvious.

actually, he’s our very stable genius.

#106 Lambchop on 07.21.20 at 10:50 am

#104 ain’t life rand on 07.21.20 at 10:18 am
@

spelling nazis are the worst.
unless you don’t know the difference between lose and loose. that’s unacceptable lol

__________

Haha, agreed!

Right up there with advice and advise.
Still, not worthy of name calling.

#107 Do we have all the facts on 07.21.20 at 10:57 am

I just finished reading all of the responses to Ryan’s blog on the weekend and was amazed how many people still seem oblivious to the role that Pierre Trudeau played in pumping up Government of Canada debt between 1968 and 1984. During his 16 years as Prime Minister the Government of Canada generated one operating surplus in 1972/74 and 15 operating deficits totalling more than $88 billion.

The interest on GOC debt increased from $1.4 billion per year in 1968 to more than $14.0 billion per year in 1984. The combination of operating deficits and rising interest costs inflated the total debt owed by the GOC to more than $210 billion by the time Brian Mulroney became Prime Minister. By 1985 the annual cost of servicing GOC debt was spiralling out of control and by 1997 total debt of the GOC had ballooned to $650 billion.

From 1997 to 2009 expenditures of the Government of Canada were $450 billion less than revenues and as a result the total debt of the GOC was reduced by $190 billion to $460 billion.

After 2009 however a series of global events resulted in the escalation of GOC debt to more than 700 billion by March 2020.

Ryan’s point, and it was a very good one, is that governments led by both Trudeaus had no trouble spending much more than they received in revenues and Canadian taxpayers must suffer the consequences.

Canadians have a habit of criticizing the governments who reined in spending and praising governments that generate annual deficits. Two chickens in every pot rule the day it seems.

This is not a healthy trait for economic survival.

#108 Faron on 07.21.20 at 11:02 am

#99 Ejeff on 07.21.20 at 9:49 am

Actually, for heart health, I’m pretty sure exercise is more important. We’ve been told otherwise by “experts” because there’s a heck of a lot more money to be made selling food (hi fat, low fat, gluten free, low sugar, high fiber, free range, organic etc. etc.) than in telling people to go for a long walk 5x a week and take the stairs when they can. Work in a few minutes of anything that gets the heart rate up and you are solid.

Diet is important. Namely keep simple carbs to a minimum and avoid processed meat. Eat your veg. And, of course, if you eat donuts and McDonald’s you are going to feel a heck of a lot less motivated for the walk…

#109 kingston boy on 07.21.20 at 11:23 am

@#108 Faron on 07.21.20 at 11:02 am
#99 Ejeff on 07.21.20 at 9:49 am

Actually, for heart health, I’m pretty sure exercise is more important. We’ve been told otherwise by “experts” because there’s a heck of a lot more money to be made selling food (hi fat, low fat, gluten free, low sugar, high fiber, free range, organic etc. etc.) than in telling people to go for a long walk 5x a week and take the stairs when they can. Work in a few minutes of anything that gets the heart rate up and you are solid.

Diet is important. Namely keep simple carbs to a minimum and avoid processed meat. Eat your veg. And, of course, if you eat donuts and McDonald’s you are going to feel a heck of a lot less motivated for the walk…
——–

Diet still trumps exercise. if you have any heart issues you should avoid meat all together.

#110 Sail Away on 07.21.20 at 11:24 am

Ok folks, it’s that time again: Rebalancing

Get to it. Don’t procrastinate. Get ready for the next fluctuation.

Don’t procrastinate! Almost everyone does. And almost everyone hurts their future because of it.

#111 Faron on 07.21.20 at 11:44 am

2 of 2

Question: Is there anything to be learned from the spread among short/mid term (up to 2 year) treasury yields as they vary on a daily or weekly basis?

My assumption is that, during uncertain times like these, their yields will be indicative of risk at various timescales. For example, when the yield curve is linearly increasing, there’s little foretetold chaos. And when there are shoulders or even inversions, chaos is viewed as a possibility at the timescale where the peak deviation in the curve lies.

Looking at yesterday’s yields, the “curve” is linear and increasing, so there’s no signal. Other days or weeks, there is a persistent depression in the yield curve around the one year or two year.

Regardless, all told, yields are around late May levels while the market has continued its rampage.

#112 Sail Away on 07.21.20 at 11:55 am

Re: Tesla

Just because it’s frothy right now, don’t be misled into believing the company is unsound.

But be patient. Never buy at a high.

I’m a huge fan of Elon. Owning and operating an engineering firm myself, I look at his accomplishments with SpaceX and Tesla, and absolutely can’t believe it. Bet on winners. Elon Musk is a winner.

#113 Ramshackle on 07.21.20 at 12:01 pm

“spelling nazis are the worst.”

“One spelling mistake or autocorrect error does not negate an entire comment or poster’s credibility.”

“Don’t be pretentious…

Trump Supporters UNTIE!

#114 it cant happen here! on 07.21.20 at 12:31 pm

Looks like we are under UN rule.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8pfsai_nKQ

#115 TurnerNation on 07.21.20 at 12:33 pm

#48 Tyberius along those lines a 25 second video test out of USA, Walmart in-store camera flag non-masked faces. This is not going away folks. I expect into 2022-23 until a new monetary system is maybe rolled out. Who knows but seems a likely plan.
Bank of Canada has E-currency ready to roll.
During the shutdown what happened? Bank of Canada and the Fed each hired Blackrock to do their new bidding. Then crushed interest rates.
Nothing to see here folks. Score: Bankers 1. People o.

Real?:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2Qy0pGfTUw&feature=emb_logo

#116 maxx on 07.21.20 at 12:33 pm

@ #20

Just don’t get sick or injured – getting an ambulance or medical help in “paradise” is a complete and utter disaster.

#117 George S on 07.21.20 at 12:49 pm

#87 Do we have all the facts on 07.21.20 at 8:02 am:

You forgot to include the 8858 people who died in your calculations. I guess technically though they don’t feel anything which could be interpreted as feeling fine.

I another comment I saw a comparison of two cases where someone used chloroquine and someone didn’t. It is an improper comparison because you also have to include people that do various other things to treat their C19 and compare the outcomes. There may be someone who kisses their dog daily and has a better or worse outcome than someone who doesn’t.
You can treat diseases with anything, doesn’t mean it has an effect on the progression of the disease. The only way you can prove that a treatment is a cure is to do a properly controlled clinical study so that you can know for sure that it is effective. Stories are just that. They are not data.

#118 maxx on 07.21.20 at 12:53 pm

@ #26

Ditto. Travel’s our big spend too. Can’t wait for it to resume, but in the mean time, it’s great to explore all of the free (gee, I love that word) activities available. I see so many people getting out in the fresh air, moving and taking great care of themselves.

Saving’s never been easier. Load up that RRSP and TFSA dawgs!

#119 T on 07.21.20 at 1:02 pm

#75 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.20.20 at 11:03 pm

I agree with all your points.

Covid can’t be properly compared with a flu when we haven’t let Covid rip through the population like we do a flu. Except, when you look at the data coming out of the US you get a better view of things.

Being immersed in the southern US myself, I can tell you first hand I have seen people experiencing symptoms and being rushed to a hospital on several occasions. I’ve never seen a flu cause so many to suddenly start coughing and gasping for air. One minute fine, next minute major challenges breathing. It’s nuts.

#120 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.21.20 at 2:16 pm

#113 Ramshackle on 07.21.20 at 12:01 pm
“spelling nazis are the worst.”

“One spelling mistake or autocorrect error does not negate an entire comment or poster’s credibility.”

“Don’t be pretentious…

Trump Supporters UNTIE!

—–

Sure, double down on being an idiot… We live in Canada dumb-dumb…

#121 Love_The_Cottage on 07.21.20 at 2:29 pm

#110 Sail Away on 07.21.20 at 11:24 am
Ok folks, it’s that time again: Rebalancing

Get to it. Don’t procrastinate. Get ready for the next fluctuation.

Don’t procrastinate! Almost everyone does. And almost everyone hurts their future because of it.
__________
Wow, an investing post.

This is an old article but still relevant I believe:

https://canadiancouchpotato.com/2011/02/24/how-often-should-you-rebalance/

I use 1 and 3, I re-balance once per year in January and will make minor adjustments throughout the year as I’m making additional contributions. I find this works best for me, I wouldn’t suggest everyone needs to use the same method.

#122 Buford Wilson on 07.21.20 at 5:39 pm

The turning point. Trump wore a mask.

He’ll be re-elected.

#123 WTF on 07.22.20 at 11:39 am

Weee…… Thanks T2!

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/young-canadians-flock-to-tiktok-to-thank-daddy-trudeau-for-cerb-spending-sprees-1.1469011

#124 Faron on 07.22.20 at 1:58 pm

Go home NASDAQ, you’re drunk!

US 10yr is down close to it’s all time low yield.

Viva UPPA!