The burden of fear

When the virus came, the Vix spiked and markets tanked, fear seized Jason. He’d given me a couple of hundred grand in an RRSP to invest for his retirement in a decade. “But wait,” he said. “There’s no way I’m investing now.”

When the spring arrived, volatility had crumbled and markets were higher by a third. Things were starting to open again and jobs trickling back. “All of this is just because of fake stimulus money from the government,” Jason told me. “It won’t last. Keep me in cash.” So we waited.

When the summer came, volatility had shrunk and markets had gained over 40%. Values were near record levels again as investors looked to a robust 2021. Unemployment was down. A vaccine was closer.

“But the virus has come back,” Jason said this week. “All over the US. Things went up too fast. They could crash again.” So we still wait. When the cost of growth assets is 50% higher than a few months ago, he’ll probably ask me to invest his money – buying far less with the same bucks.

Jason’s score: Emotion, 1. Brain, 0.

Here’s the latest: The S&P 500 (the Holy Grail) opened Wednesday 46% higher than it closed on March 23rd. And it’s still rising. The one-year return is 8% – which means if you lost consciousness last July and just awoke, you’d be happy. The Dow is also up 46% and Bay Street has gained 42%. Both are flat year/year. Balanced portfolios are up from last summer. Zero virus impact, in other words.

This week the Bank of Canada’s new boss, Tiff, reaffirmed interest rates are going nowhere and the central bank will continue to snorfle up government bonds at the rate of $5 billion a week (or more). Ditto for the Fed in the US, which indicated Tuesday it would do whatever it takes to support markets and fuel economic recovery. In other words, the guys with all the money have made it clear they have investors’ backs. Thinking financial markets could fall 40% with this assurance is, well, nuts. Don’t fight the Fed. You’ll lose.

Chasing the money: liquidity surges, assets follow

And did you hear the vaccine news?

Airlines, cruise lines and hotels all saw their shares jump along with those of Moderna. That company’s new drug seems to be working in preventing the virus from infecting its test subjects. It’s early going, there are some side effects, and producing hundreds of millions of doses will take a long time. But markets are forward-looking, and there was never much doubt therapies, if not cures and vaccines, would emerge in time.

Speaking of time, The Tiffer says it’ll take two years for Canada to heal. A 15% hole in the economy in 2020 will be replaced with significant growth next year and into 2022. During that time, government deficits will be ugly, the jobless rate stay elevated, small businesses will be whacked, real estate will grow swampy, tax pressure will grow, money will stay cheap and, yes, the sun will come out.

None of this should surprise. The crisis of 2020 was not the same as that in 2008. No banks are keeling over. Credit is flowing like the mighty Fraser. Governments and CBs immediately reacted. And pandemics, by their nature, pass. They do not bring structural change – it’s like a giant windstorm that tears off the vulnerable, over-extended branches. Not an earthquake ripping out roots. New shoots emerge. The tree lives and thrives.

Here is the message this pathetic blog carried four months ago. On the day markets bottomed, the following was published here:

Governments and bankers are going nuts trying to mitigate this. They have only started. There is absolutely no fiscal or monetary discipline at play here. Society will be awash in liquidity, complete with unprecedented corporate bailouts and social support payments. Remember that the US president is up for election and our guy leads a minority government. Expect no brakes.

Second, pent-up demand will be stunning…

Third, pandemics pass. So do oil wars. You know this. We all know it.

Finally, we are nearing capitulation. Just read the comments on this blog over the last few days. The number of people forecasting millions of bodies and years of 1930s-style depression is stunning. The bottom comes when most folks shed hope. It seems we’re not far off.

And we weren’t. But it has taken 120 days for that to start sinking in. During this time fear trumped reason. The media had a cow. Many people made bad choices. My client, Jason, was one. The Coronavirus Broadcasting Corporation and all the esteemed epidemiologists and infectious disease control experts in the steerage section got to him. He melted down. Jason forgot that you reach goals through buying low and selling high. Ignoring headlines. Investing when you have money. Focusing on the long game. Not being a market timer. Not thinking the stock market is the only financial asset.

Doubtless more bumps lie ahead. The virus. Trump and the election. Lousy corporate profits. Public debts. Civil unrest. China. There’s always something to fret about, especially in an age when everybody looks like a bandit and you have to social distance to buy hooch. But bad times beget better days.

So just man up. (Can I still say that?)

148 comments ↓

#1 YouKnowWho on 07.15.20 at 3:43 pm

Humans not able to touch each other? It is the reality of our Covid-19 world.

In our continued series about lack of human touch, it is time to reach for that knob with an ungloved hand, turn it and open The Doors who declare “Come on, come on, come on, come on, Now TOUCH ME, babe! Can’t you see that I am not afraid?”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCQ-zml9rfc

#2 YouKnowWho on 07.15.20 at 3:43 pm

#143 JB on 07.15.20 at 1:54 pm

Personally, I’m wearing a cotton mask myself as mandated, because I have to when entering a store or public areas.

According to scientific studies conducted on other particles and non-Covid viruses, such cotton masks, which the vast majority of public are currently wearing, are effective at blocking an “amazing” 2% of the particles, letting another 98% in/out of course. If you get fancy and go to 4-layers of cotton (and can move air through it in this humid heat) you can get that 2% filtering efficiency all the way to incredible 13%! WOW.

You can see the scientific paper on this here:
https://aaqr.org/articles/aaqr-13-06-oa-0201

So next time you see those cotton masks on people, “protecting them”, just remember those are as good as -(N98) masks. Or N02 if you so prefer. All the way up to amazing -(N87), or N13.

Now, Duck and Cover!

#3 espressobob on 07.15.20 at 3:52 pm

It pays to develop a game face for those who wrestle with Mr. Market. Most capitulate when the opposite action proves most profitable. This is going nowhere.

I’m good with that.

#4 Sail Away on 07.15.20 at 3:56 pm

Jason, Jason, Jason…

You should have read my steerage comments only and blocked out the rest during that highly emotional time.

You would now be with me and a handful of others chortling from our ivory tower. Unfortunately, at this point we’re chortling at you. Don’t take it personally.

#5 physicist on 07.15.20 at 3:59 pm

RE: #2 YouKnowWho on 07.15.20 at 3:43 pm

I have been doing mask testing in response to Covid-19 for a while now. My company offers a made-in-Canada solution for surgical and non-medical mask qualification.

The particular test used this study is very conservative as it tests at a very high flow rate of 85 litres per minute. Typical human respiration is normally in the range 5-30 litres/min.

We have found most 2 or 3-ply cloth masks filter about 60-70% of 0.1 micron sized particulate when challenged at a flow rate of 10 litres/minute.

#6 Sail Away on 07.15.20 at 4:04 pm

As backup… my post from March 16:

—————

#210 Sail Away on 03.16.20 at 10:45 am

Oh, exciting times.

If markets drop to -40%, Warren and I may very well take over the world.

—————

Strangely, Warren did not join me in the buyback for reasons of his own. But I am cruising down the path to world domination.

#7 Air Canada lover and hater simultaneously on 07.15.20 at 4:05 pm

Made 10K off of AC stocks and got stock about a month… it is going up again :) Put Emotions Aside and Invest

#8 Brian Ripley on 07.15.20 at 4:07 pm

My Bitcoin plot vs Gold and Toronto and Vancouver SF Detached houses all denominated in USD is up:
http://www.chpc.biz/bitcoin-gold–re.html

​In June 2020 Vancouver and Toronto Single Family Detached average prices pressed higher towards their recent highs. Gold bullion prices continued their tentative crawl up the wall of worry as did Bitcoin’s average monthly price.

Apparently fundamentals are a non issue for “investors” in a ZIRP & NIRP economy.

#9 James on 07.15.20 at 4:08 pm

Long time reader of this blog but I rarely comment. Since the pandemic Turner has conducted an all out assault on government spending but when Harper racked up 160 billion dollars in debt from 2009 to 2013 he said nothing. The current crisis is much worse then 2008 and the only way there would be some semblance of an economy left was for the government to intervene. I’ll be honest what Canada did was not perfect but it was never going to be, there were far to many unknowns with this Virus.

So Garth, what mechanisms would a Sheer government done to lessen the blow? I can give you a couple of there solutions because they are the same every time. 1. They would have cut corporate taxes which would have destroyed government revenues.
2. They would have probably given upwards of 50 billion dollars to backstop the O/G sector which would have done nothing to increase economic activity as the Alberta economy was always based around construction.
3. They would have given a tax cut to wealthiest Canadians, If you want to see how that game ends look south of the border.
4. They would have issued a stimulus check to all Canadians whether they needed it or not.

In conclusion…on 2nd thought there is no conclusion because this story is to be continued because this pandemic is far from over.

That was a partisan rant. The worst Harper deficit was $56 billion (credit crisis) and he ended his time with a surplus. T2 has been in deficit every year of his administration and this year hit $343 billion (pandemic). Conclusions seem obvious enough. – Garth

#10 Sail Away on 07.15.20 at 4:10 pm

Sure hope our family gets to be Starlink Beta testers. After initial signup a few weeks ago, they just requested home address info.

#11 Dave on 07.15.20 at 4:13 pm

So for Real Estate in Vancouver who will win???

Job loss or Low interest rates?

#12 Smartalox on 07.15.20 at 4:16 pm

The one bit of investing advice that was gifted to me, was that “building wealth is less about maximizing gains, than it is about minimizing losses” it’s why a balanced and diversified portfolio of high quality investments is a great long-term strategy, and why low-cost index funds do so well (fees = losses).

#13 Ds on 07.15.20 at 4:17 pm

Hehe, now we need the babyboom – the future financial obligations for the youngsters have already been locked in.

#14 truefacts on 07.15.20 at 4:24 pm

And even if a vaccine never comes, this whole thing has proven to be not that serious if you’re not at the wrinkly stage of life. Look at the demographics of how Covid affects people by age:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

We need to improve protocols for long-term care homes, let seniors and health-compromised people get the first hour every day in stores to avoid transmission.

Otherwise, life should return to normal and kids should be allowed to head back to school in the fall – kids have about as much chance of dying from Covid as getting dementia…

#15 Overheardyou on 07.15.20 at 4:27 pm

The more I think, as the days go by…come the deferral cliff and CERB end. Our government will just pay for all those mortgaged to the hilt.

#16 Flanneur on 07.15.20 at 4:28 pm

I did what was suggested:) bought as much stock as I could. Cleaned out all my account balances. And used my deferred tax payments. Bought every time I could find cash.

It worked out pretty good.

See Garth some people listen. Thanks.

#17 nicely said on 07.15.20 at 4:37 pm

So just man up. (Can I still say that?)

or

cowboy up!

Many thanks for your voice of reason. The future is bright,

#18 YouKnowWho on 07.15.20 at 4:44 pm

#5 physicist

We have found most 2 or 3-ply cloth masks filter about 60-70% of 0.1 micron sized particulate when challenged at a flow rate of 10 litres/minute.

—-

You’ll have to forgive me if I don’t believe what you’re saying fully and completely.

Not because I don’t like you or anythings personal like that. We’re all friends here.

Simply when a study clearly tests cotton at various layers, and does the tests in an accepted test methodology as established by National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health NIOSH, the same methodology that is used for N95 masks…well, your revision of their methodology or flow rates is simply not acceptable and therefore I dismiss your claims.

#19 IMALWAYSRIGHT on 07.15.20 at 4:51 pm

It appears we are still bringing in Covid-19 on flights into Canada.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/at-least-26-flights-have-arrived-in-canada-with-covid-19-cases-in-last-two-weeks-1.5024278

Passenger counts in and out of Pearson are not far behind last year, April was an anomaly. 15 million in 2019 and not far behind YTD.
https://www.torontopearson.com/en/corporate/partnering-with-us/air-services/airport-and-market-facts

The GTAA says traffic is down 97%, and 500 workers were just laid off. – Garth

#20 Lee on 07.15.20 at 4:53 pm

Scott Addams says he plopped all his excess cash into Amazon after the crash in March. If so, he’s up about 80% in three months or so on that investment. So much for not betting on one stock. (I know, he can afford to lose it and lets see if he can do it consistently.)

That is gambling, not investing. Wholly wrong for most people. – Garth

#21 the Jaguar on 07.15.20 at 4:56 pm

My microscopic examination of Garth’s comments today revealed: ‘Third, pandemics pass. So do oil wars. ‘

Yes, it’s true OPEC and others are predicting a sharp increase in oil demand in 2021. And that Buffett character broke into his piggy bank to buy Dominion Pipeline assets. So maybe if the ‘oil biz’ could talk it might borrow the Mark Twain quote ‘The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated’.

From one moment to the next it’s impossible to know whether we’re living in a Weimar Republic remake or on the cusp of another Roaring Twenties. And the ‘main event’ is now only a little more than three months away. I feel light headed and giddy just thinking about it. What’s hiding in plain sight? The Hispanic vote, of course.

WestJet is opening up more overseas flights. Non stops to London and Paris. My escape plan on November 28th has all the appearances of a fait accompli. I close my eyes and can hear the sound of four Rolls-Royce Merlin engines. I know WestJet doesn’t fly Avro Lancasters. It’s just the hopeless romantic in me.

#22 Piano_Man87 on 07.15.20 at 5:00 pm

Thanks to Garth’s wonderful advice, my TFSA is so close to breaking the 6 figure mark. Thank you Garth!!!

#23 Apocalypse2020 on 07.15.20 at 5:10 pm

“Civil unrest. China.”

…..and Russia, unrest and civil war over USA elections, North Korea, record forest fire rampages, revolutions in South America, 2nd and 3rd waves of Covid19, earthquakes and comet strike.

But wait, there’s more…………

#24 physicist on 07.15.20 at 5:14 pm

@ YouKnowWho #17

What’s with the harsh language? Sheesh.

Surgical masks are tested to meet the ASTM F2299 standard which is the approved and required methodology for testing medical masks, and so happens methodology by which we have tried on cloth masks.

The required methodology for N95 respirators is the NIOSH method.

I only sought to point out the method used your referenced study uses an extremely conservative test which an important point to consider when interpreting the results.

(Garth, now I understand what you have to put up with on the comments section!)

#25 cramar on 07.15.20 at 5:15 pm

Garth, you’ve mentioned about how people get frightened by watching the ‘Corona Broadcasting Corporation’. If you think CBC is scaring people, you should watch the U.S. networks. The difference is CBC is saying “Boo!” vs watching Hitchcock’s “Psycho” on American Channels.

“I think I made a mistake.”

Said the 30s-year old Austin, TX, man who attended a “COVID party” a few weeks ago as first mentioned on American news. That was his last words before he died in ICU last week. He thought it was just a hoax. Psycho!

https://cbsaustin.com/news/coronavirus/i-thought-this-was-a-hoax-patient-in-their-30s-dies-after-attending-covid-party

#26 rockinror on 07.15.20 at 5:17 pm

Garth could have pointed out that those who have invested in the S&P 500 are reaping the benefit of a tech bubble, with 5 stocks accounting for the lion’s share of the gain, AAPL, MSFT, FB, AMZN, GOOG. The US market excluding these 5 has gone essentially nowhere for 2.5 years. These 5 names make up one fifth of the market. So much for diversification.

I have never suggested investing into one market. A globally balanced and diversified portfolio contains US, Canadian and International equities as well as REITs, bonds, preferreds and sector exposure (such as healthcare). I fail to understand the underlying aggression and challenge in many comments. Keep it up and you’ll be talking to your hand.- Garth

#27 Prussian on 07.15.20 at 5:22 pm

Dear Garth,

Thank you for your daily dose of advise. I have listened to your advice, and even sold some bonds to buy more equities at the bottom; when you said it was. My b&d portfolio has done well despite the pandemic.

The comments section is quite the entertainment, and as usual, the truth is somewhere in the middle. Please keep it going.

Learned something new yesterday: disinflation. It is actually a word/term. Today’s topic: fiat currency

For those worried about inflation/hyperinflation and fiat currency; i suppose owning stocks/etf/equities is as good as owning gold/real estate; as we are owning a piece of a business and the business’s assets (which can include real estate). Correct me if I am wrong, but won’t this be a hedge against inflation? I don’t see how owning gold miner shares would help; as it can be subject to the same forces other businesses are subject too. if one really wants to invest in gold, perhaps one should actually buy physical gold itself.

Anyways, slow and steady does it.

#28 Stone on 07.15.20 at 5:36 pm

#26 rockinror on 07.15.20 at 5:17 pm
Garth could have pointed out that those who have invested in the S&P 500 are reaping the benefit of a tech bubble, with 5 stocks accounting for the lion’s share of the gain, AAPL, MSFT, FB, AMZN, GOOG. The US market excluding these 5 has gone essentially nowhere for 2.5 years. These 5 names make up one fifth of the market. So much for diversification.

I have never suggested investing into one market. A globally balanced and diversified portfolio contains US, Canadian and International equities as well as REITs, bonds, preferreds and sector exposure (such as healthcare). I fail to understand the underlying aggression and challenge in many comments. Keep it up and you’ll be talking to your hand.- Garth

———

I understand where the aggression and challenge is coming from. They didn’t make any money throughout this current financial tempest. Worse yet, they lost money because they sold at the bottom and never went back in solidifying their loss.

Oh well. I think they just need a hug.

Hug!

#29 Abc123 on 07.15.20 at 5:39 pm

Once again , housing prices rise to new heights in Toronto despite what should have been a terminal event given the horrendous job losses and business closures Covid had brought.

Anyone still arguing that Toronto “isn’t different “when it comes to real estate is basically akin to a flat earthier.

The observational evidence is clear . Toronto is “ different” and now proven to be immune to any real estate price correction for residential RE

#30 YouKnowWho on 07.15.20 at 5:46 pm

#24 physicist

Not harsh, just facts.

If N95 masks blocked 95% of particles in the NIOSH test, and cotton at 1-layer blocked 2% and at 4-layers blocked 13%, then quite honestly I’m not interested in data from your revised lower quality test that boost the claimed particle blocking efficiency % for cotton masks, along with your claims not being published or reviewed.

It is exactly the introduction of that type of data points from someone anonymous on a comment section with a lowered bar for clearance that creates confusion among the masses.

And it is the reason why I included a direct link to the study using NIOSH standards to confirm what I was claiming with cotton masks in my comment is based on fact.

We have the NIOSH test.
It is the gold standard for mask tests.
It confirmed N95 masks at 95%.

It is the only test I care about and wish to hear the results of as it relates to masks.

I would think someone named physicist would understand that.

Garth is putting up with nothing from me, except the desire to present factual reviewed data on this site.

Hence I link the study that proves cotton at NIOSH standard is 2%-13% efficient at 1 to 4 layers.

#31 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 07.15.20 at 5:54 pm

Garth your words on world money thingies
And for speaking about being all around balanced
makes the sun come out

#32 Alice in Sunderland on 07.15.20 at 5:58 pm

By this time next year the worlds oldest profession will be the no1 employer in most western nations with the ubi as a supplement . Good luck with your investments folks .

#33 Dolce Vita on 07.15.20 at 5:59 pm

More well deserved “I told you so’s” today. Many more to come.

Manufacturing up over April, 10.7% to $40.2 billion in May following a record 27.9% decline in April.

Though that’s cyclical optimism.

May 2020 vs. May 2019 Manufacturing: -31.6%.

“Tiffer says it’ll take two years for Canada to heal.”

He and this Blogs Author will be probably correct, again.

————————–

StatCan The Daily on Manufacturing:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200715/dq200715a-eng.htm?HPA=1

Manufacturing Principal Statistics:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200715/t001a-eng.htm

Manufacturing sales by industry (only 2 of many slightly +):

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200715/t002a-eng.htm

#34 willworkforpickles on 07.15.20 at 6:06 pm

They could switch from handing out face masks at the big box stores to handing out rose colored glasses any day now.

#35 Shawn on 07.15.20 at 6:09 pm

Just make the comments section the blog and the blog the comments section. Comments are far more entertaining.

#36 Drinking on 07.15.20 at 6:10 pm

Dead cat bounce; wait till fall and winter when the real numbers come in and people start to default (sad), god forbid if there is a so called second wave; Cash is King!!

#37 David Martin on 07.15.20 at 6:23 pm

No. You can’t say that Garth. But you already knew that, didn’t you.

#38 Linda on 07.15.20 at 6:24 pm

Speaking of the USA & coronavirus they are on track to notch up 140,000 deaths to the disease by the end of today. As per a CNN headline, the WH has apparently commanded that information regarding infections/deaths must now go to them first & not to the CDC. Do I smell a coverup? Who wants to bet that once those numbers go to the WH that the infection & death tolls will drop dramatically? After all, it is all about winning the upcoming election & the Donald is not happy that this ‘fake news’ is making him look bad…..

#39 Doug t on 07.15.20 at 6:26 pm

Garth do you miss the ice cream parlour?

#40 AACI Homedog on 07.15.20 at 6:27 pm

Isn’t the S&P 500 largely affected by the big 3, Amazon, Netflix & Facebook ? And that is where most of the gains are ?

#41 Classical Liberal Millennial on 07.15.20 at 6:37 pm

“James” isn’t a very smart fellow. Partisan rant indeed.

#42 paul on 07.15.20 at 6:39 pm

So just man up. (Can I still say that?)
“““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““
I don’t think so.

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/d4f2625c-4a49-4b47-891f-cc76fb194163

#43 Nonplused on 07.15.20 at 6:39 pm

New reports coming in that south of the border now they are short aluminum cans! It supposedly reflects the switch away from fountain drinks to soda cans. Supposedly Coke and Pepsi are trying to manage by focusing on their most popular brands so no Fanta for you! Also in short supply, not surprisingly, are canned foods, rice, and pasta of course especially in the hard hit states. So if you see some on sale in Walmart you might want to grab a case. There are no shortages in Canada that I am aware of (except Lysol wipes) but if the US experience becomes a preview of what to expect it wouldn’t hurt to get in front of it. Oh and don’t forget the dog!

#44 WTF on 07.15.20 at 6:39 pm

“So just man up. (Can I still say that?)”

A pox on you! In the vernacular of the Saint Justin our barely elected PM

Its people up…!

ok Boomer?

#45 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.15.20 at 6:59 pm

#2 YouKnowWho on 07.15.20 at 3:43 pm sez:
“#143 JB on 07.15.20 at 1:54 pm

Personally, I’m wearing a cotton mask myself as mandated, because I have to when entering a store or public areas.

According to scientific studies conducted on other particles and non-Covid viruses, such cotton masks, which the vast majority of public are currently wearing, are effective at blocking an “amazing” 2% of the particles, letting another 98% in/out of course. If you get fancy and go to 4-layers of cotton (and can move air through it in this humid heat) you can get that 2% filtering efficiency all the way to incredible 13%! WOW.

You can see the scientific paper on this here:
https://aaqr.org/articles/aaqr-13-06-oa-0201

So next time you see those cotton masks on people, “protecting them”, just remember those are as good as -(N98) masks. Or N02 if you so prefer. All the way up to amazing -(N87), or N13.

Now, Duck and Cover!”
———————————————
How dare you! How dare you use facts in an irrational emotional argument!

You….you….you… Granny Killer

#46 Nonplused on 07.15.20 at 7:01 pm

#5 physicist on 07.15.20 at 3:59 pm
RE: #2 YouKnowWho on 07.15.20 at 3:43 pm

I have been doing mask testing in response to Covid-19 for a while now. My company offers a made-in-Canada solution for surgical and non-medical mask qualification.

The particular test used this study is very conservative as it tests at a very high flow rate of 85 litres per minute. Typical human respiration is normally in the range 5-30 litres/min.

We have found most 2 or 3-ply cloth masks filter about 60-70% of 0.1 micron sized particulate when challenged at a flow rate of 10 litres/minute.

——————–

So if you are wearing a mask and it filters out 70% of the particles, and I am also wearing a mask that filters out 70% of the remaining particles, does that not result in 91% of the particles being filtered? Did I do that math right? Even so that means 9% get through so I am not sure what to think about that. Seems like it would only take one but then I’ve read other stuff that says it takes a certain number of viruses or the immune system just brushes it off. About that I do not know.

Anyway when there were still lineups at Costco (it’s actually pretty quiet there these days) I was standing in line to get in and a guy a couple carts in front of me took a big hit on a vape. Normally I wouldn’t have thought much of it because you can’t really smell vape but the cloud provided a pretty good visualization of how droplets move through the air. Based on what I saw I would say this whole “6 feet” thing is meaningless too. He gassed a bunch of us.

Hmm maybe somebody should blow some vape through a mask and see how effective it appears.

#47 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.15.20 at 7:02 pm

#5 physicist on 07.15.20 at 3:59 pm advertizes:
“RE: #2 YouKnowWho on 07.15.20 at 3:43 pm

I have been doing mask testing in response to Covid-19 for a while now. My company offers a made-in-Canada solution for surgical and non-medical mask qualification.

The particular test used this study is very conservative as it tests at a very high flow rate of 85 litres per minute. Typical human respiration is normally in the range 5-30 litres/min.

We have found most 2 or 3-ply cloth masks filter about 60-70% of 0.1 micron sized particulate when challenged at a flow rate of 10 litres/minute.”
——————————————
Geez, no vested interest here.

#48 kappa on 07.15.20 at 7:04 pm

I’ve read somewhere that equity markets are for optimists – an adage that aligns with Warren Buffet’s long-term positive view about stocks and American economy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index

According to wikipedia, since inception (year 1926), S&P 500 went up 9.8% per year in average (dividends included). Also “The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time”.

IMHO, this blog did a great job in constantly reminding people to stay invested and not to sell in a storm.

The fact that the market was able to recover so quickly from a once-in-a-generation event (like covid-19) which was compared with the Great Depression (in terms of high unemployment levels and GDP % drop) is simply jaw dropping.

I will take the advice in this blog any day: “Don’t fight the Fed. You’ll lose.” Near zero interest rates from Fed and central banks for a couple of years means: the equity markets are prone to go up significantly. That’s what happened during the QE put in place to counter the effects of the the 2008-2209 great financial crisis (with Ben Bernanke at the Fed’s helm).

#49 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.15.20 at 7:04 pm

#14 truefacts on 07.15.20 at 4:24 pm sez:

“And even if a vaccine never comes, this whole thing has proven to be not that serious if you’re not at the wrinkly stage of life. Look at the demographics of how Covid affects people by age:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

We need to improve protocols for long-term care homes, let seniors and health-compromised people get the first hour every day in stores to avoid transmission.

Otherwise, life should return to normal and kids should be allowed to head back to school in the fall – kids have about as much chance of dying from Covid as getting dementia…”
——————————————
Will you rational people stop it with the data? They might have to “cancel” you.

#50 Leftover on 07.15.20 at 7:05 pm

Fear will reign until November 4th, Biden is anointed, and then sunshine and lollipops (to the tune of “Ding Dong the Witch is Dead”). Talk about morning in America.

‘Til then media heads will explode on cue whenever a (the) crisis needs stoking. The market will reflect these outbursts, it always does.

#51 Drinking on 07.15.20 at 7:06 pm

Rex: https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-when-sorry-doesnt-cut-it-any-more/wcm/233147a2-be53-4dc0-b9e5-c08a0907ce4a/

Just do not know Garth; it is a guessing game for all of us; yep, certainly am playing the long game but much, much, less, there is no normalcy; cash out, buy those little things that can create a quick profit, it sure helps! Much better returns; just saying!! Of course you know!!

#52 Dirty Dan on 07.15.20 at 7:07 pm

Please, pretty please… Garth can you do us one favor.

Can you please let us know the day Jason decides to dump everything into the market again? I need to know when the top is so I can start balancing back into some cash.

Thanks in advance.

#53 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 07.15.20 at 7:08 pm

Did everyone hear the news today?

Then please, just stay away.

#54 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.15.20 at 7:09 pm

@ #30 YouKnowWho on 07.15.20 at 5:46 pm:

“Physicist” likes to test his masks on people who don’t breathe.

#55 Trimtab on 07.15.20 at 7:12 pm

Watch for all this to culminate with a new digital currency and new global governance body on or around JUNE 6 2022.
157th day of the calendar (adds up to 13)
6-6-6
BRAVE NEW WORLD

#56 Nonplused on 07.15.20 at 7:15 pm

#20 Lee on 07.15.20 at 4:53 pm
Scott Addams says he plopped all his excess cash into Amazon after the crash in March. If so, he’s up about 80% in three months or so on that investment. So much for not betting on one stock. (I know, he can afford to lose it and lets see if he can do it consistently.)

That is gambling, not investing. Wholly wrong for most people. – Garth

———————

Scott Adams has a net worth of $75 million, so he can afford the odd one stock gamble with his “excess cash”. I do not have $75 million and I do not have “excess cash” so I cannot. But many ETF’s have exposure to Amazon so it is possible to get your exposure without betting the farm on one stock. It’s the same as how you can get gold exposure without burying gold coins in the garden just by owning the TSE.

#57 Steven Nicolle on 07.15.20 at 7:26 pm

The premier of Manitoba wants the CERB to come to an end. Awesome then everyone who works in low paying jobs can expect an increase in their minimum wage. Great stuff. I saw on Stats Can that a full time job is considered to be 30 hours and Manitoba’s minimum wage is $11.65. Wow that is $349.50 a week then the tax. No wonder everyone wants the CERB rather than return to work. This is if your employer actually hires you full time. Oh boy here I go again my socialist side for the little guy side is coming out. No I just believe everyone should get a start in life then move up the income ladder. $11.65 is pathetic!

#58 Reximus on 07.15.20 at 7:27 pm

#53 Leftover on 07.15.20 at 7:05 pm

Trump didnt cause the pandemic, but he definitely made it worse and surely he will be held accountable. He is the worst possible human to have as president now.

He just keeps making it worse…every day

#59 YouKnowWho on 07.15.20 at 7:30 pm

#48 Bytor the Snow Dog

At this point I honestly just enjoy the fact avoidance dance.

UN-SAFETY DANCE!

#60 Forever12 on 07.15.20 at 7:35 pm

#3 espressobob on 07.15.20 at 3:52 pm

“It pays to develop a game face for those who wrestle with Mr. Market.”

True enough…. But my mask was covering my face and Mr. Market didn’t recognize me!

#61 RollerDerby on 07.15.20 at 7:40 pm

#61 Reximus on 07.15.20 at 7:27 pm
#53 Leftover on 07.15.20 at 7:05 pm

Trump didnt cause the pandemic, but he definitely made it worse and surely he will be held accountable. He is the worst possible human to have as president now.

He just keeps making it worse…every day

——————–

They say…..

Opinions are like A**ountants! Everybody has one!

#62 jess on 07.15.20 at 7:47 pm

5 physicist on 07.15.20 at 3:59 pm
masks along with distancing hand washing and for goodness sakes keep your kids home if there are sick!

Protection from dust, allergens, and infectious aerosols with face masks and respirators is dependent on the aerosol concentration of the compound and the in-fectious or inhaled dose.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-0948_article
During the early 20th century, various types of cloth masks (made of cotton, gauze, and other fabrics) were used in US hospitals. Rates of respiratory infections among healthcare workers who used masks made of 2–3 layers of gauze were low (5). Cloth masks were also used to protect healthcare workers from diphtheria and scarlet fever. During the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic, masks made of various layers of cotton were widely used by healthcare workers and the general public. Gauze masks were used during the second Manchurian plague epidemic in 1920–1921 and a plague epidemic in Los Angeles in 1924; infection rates among healthcare workers who wore masks were low (6). During the 1930s and 1940s, gauze and cloth masks were also used by healthcare workers to protect themselves from tuberculosis (7). In the middle of the 20th century, after disposable medical masks had been developed, use of cloth masks decreased; however, cloth mask use is still widespread in many countries in Asia. During the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in China, cotton masks were widely used by healthcare workers and the general public, and observational studies found them to be effective (8).

apparently adding a nylon stocking overtop of the folded type see here
https://qz.com/1845741/diy-coronavirus-masks-more-protective-if-enhanced-with-pantyhose/
Figure 2.Facemask (Mask D) worn as designed (a)and with a nylon stocking layer (b) with tightly-sealed grommet positioned at the philtrum of the upperlip. The grommet is used to sample air from insidethe mask during testing

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069567v2.full.pdf

#63 Masks for Walmartians on 07.15.20 at 7:51 pm

Oh this should be good…..’murica

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.20 at 7:54 pm

I had to zip over to Vancouver Island today on the ferry.
The ticket booth attendant peppered me with all the usual questions:
Covid symptoms? No.
Mask? Yes.
Social distancing required. Ok.

Sit in the line up waiting to board…..
No staff wearing masks, gloves, etc.
No one(staff included) social distancing.
A few people wearing masks…..but the minority.
Boarded the ship.
Decided to use the elevator( sorry folks, its in my DNA).
Went up to the passenger deck with mask, gloves on.
I’d guess-timate that 75% we not observing ANY Covid protocols.

On my return trip the observations were similar with the added bonus that the sundeck was open on a rare, sunny day and………I got to watch two young kids trying to…….spit into the wind……..until their horrified parents rushed to stop them from covering everyone else with their spit.

Crowdiefartz Story over and out.

#65 baloney Sandwitch on 07.15.20 at 7:54 pm

Garth, Respectfully you may be declaring “mission accomplished” too soon. The worst of this recession is still to come. Govt stimulus will be wound down soon. As we emerge from the pandemic many small businesses will not reopen or close within months of reopening as consumers may have changed their behavior. This will cause unemployment to spike. I am grateful for your daily blog but sometimes I get the feeling that you may be a little too blase’ and dismissive of the virus. No its not the plague but its not the flu either. Plus, the vaccine is not here yet and if it comes may not be very effective.

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.20 at 7:58 pm

@#58 Trimtab
“6-6-6”

+++
I guess you already knew Jared Kushner’s office address in New Yawk.

666 5th Ave…..
yesssssss it’ssssss true!
Cue the Theme from The Exorcist

#67 jess on 07.15.20 at 8:01 pm

who is checking?
https://www.torontopearson.com/en/arrivals
============================
https://qz.com/india/1880747/ambanis-reliance-industries-sets-eyes-on-5g-backed-by-google/

#68 Ballingsford on 07.15.20 at 8:05 pm

Photo from the Bonnie and Clyde era didnt wear masks like that so the picture was photoshop’d.
In the olden days you’d probably be shot for wearing a wimpy mask.
Bandanas is what the real men and women wore.

How come theres no dogs in the picture? Probably to embarrassed to hang with this bunch.

1918 pandemic photo. – Garth

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.20 at 8:06 pm

@#45 WTF
“A pox on you! In the vernacular of the Saint Justin our barely elected PM
Its people up…!”

+++

Sooo ,
I instead of telling a flat chested gal to “man up” I can use the unisex observation about a persons inability to handle a difficult situation and tell her to “grow a pair” without getting slapped?

I’m starting to appreciate the intricate nuances of the pc world of insults.

#70 Sathia on 07.15.20 at 8:09 pm

I’m sure it’s not your intention Garth. But posts like today’s completely remove any desire that someone may have had to invest today. Yup, you were right this time, but to only gloat instead of offering a “what now” makes you look like many in your comments section – just looking for that pat on the back.

I’m not sure that it serves your purpose well as a financial advisor to be looking in the rear view mirror and not offering a forward view.

Well, the forward view I provided in March was correct. Did you act on it? Sounds as if you did not. My forward view now was contained in this post in four words. Of course you can always ask me for a refund. – Garth

#71 draper on 07.15.20 at 8:16 pm

@#42 Classical Liberal Millennial on 07.15.20 at 6:37 pm
“James” isn’t a very smart fellow.
——
pot calling the kettle black.

#72 Tim123 on 07.15.20 at 8:16 pm

There is a saying on Wall Street, “Don’t fight the fed”. This is something that traders know from experience. It does not mean there won’t be volatility it just means that the Fed will be supporting the economy and the market. I am trading the market, but as we are at the top of the range for the S&P 500 based on my review of the Wall Street strategists forecasts, I am raising cash and taking some profits. I am still in the markets but when the upside is less than my downside caution is warranted especially on a seasonal basis. Am I timing the market? Yes, I am playing the probabilities but it is not easy to do and you have to be fast on the trades. Anyways, we shall see whether I am correct with a pull back coming.

#73 jess on 07.15.20 at 8:28 pm

smoothing

Geithner about HAMP, — how the program was going to start helping home owners. In defense of the program, Geithner : ‘We estimate that they can handle ten million foreclosures, over time,’ referring to the banks. ‘This program will help foam the runway for them.’

=======================

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20200714a.htm

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard gave a speech via webcast to the National Association for Business Economics.

Brainard raised the caution that credit downgrades on bonds and corporate defaults are occurring at “a faster pace than in the initial months of the Global Financial Crisis.”

==================

Congressman Sean Casten of Illinois warned that “we are in a massive economic downturn,” adding this:

“Every single entity in our society is getting their cash constrained. Individuals who are losing their jobs are having to dip into savings or their retirement account; small businesses are having to chew through all their working capital; states and municipalities are having to spend through all their rainy-day funds. And those of us who have the ability to deficit spend are doing so on a fairly significant basis right now. To put it mildly.

“I mention that, because when this is all done, there’s gonna be a reckoning. Folks are gonna look out and say, in this moment, who stepped up and acted with ethics, to act with charity, and look out for those who were needy, and who decided to hoard their reserves. That is an ethical problem, it’s not a political problem. But as we saw after 2008, as we saw after the Great Depression, those ethical problems quickly become political problems. And we have to all think about that. We all have to be thinking about what we are doing in this moment to help those in need.”

================
job retention
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Unemployment_statistics
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Unemployment_statistics#Unemployment_in_the_EU_and_the_euro_area
Through May, France, Italy and Germany remained with their unemployment rates in single digit levels….”

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.15.20 at 8:32 pm

#49 Nonplused on 07.15.20 at 7:01 pm
#5 physicist on 07.15.20 at 3:59 pm
RE: #2 YouKnowWho on 07.15.20 at 3:43 pm

I have been doing mask testing in response to Covid-19 for a while now. My company offers a made-in-Canada solution for surgical and non-medical mask qualification.

The particular test used this study is very conservative as it tests at a very high flow rate of 85 litres per minute. Typical human respiration is normally in the range 5-30 litres/min.

We have found most 2 or 3-ply cloth masks filter about 60-70% of 0.1 micron sized particulate when challenged at a flow rate of 10 litres/minute.

——————–

So if you are wearing a mask and it filters out 70% of the particles, and I am also wearing a mask that filters out 70% of the remaining particles, does that not result in 91% of the particles being filtered? Did I do that math right? Even so that means 9% get through so I am not sure what to think about that. Seems like it would only take one but then I’ve read other stuff that says it takes a certain number of viruses or the immune system just brushes it off. About that I do not know.

Anyway when there were still lineups at Costco (it’s actually pretty quiet there these days) I was standing in line to get in and a guy a couple carts in front of me took a big hit on a vape. Normally I wouldn’t have thought much of it because you can’t really smell vape but the cloud provided a pretty good visualization of how droplets move through the air. Based on what I saw I would say this whole “6 feet” thing is meaningless too. He gassed a bunch of us.

Hmm maybe somebody should blow some vape through a mask and see how effective it appears.
————-
Nonplussed
Leave the science to FAUCI.

#75 Lambchop on 07.15.20 at 8:33 pm

#58 Trimtab on 07.15.20 at 7:12 pm
Watch for all this to culminate with a new digital currency and new global governance body on or around JUNE 6 2022.
157th day of the calendar (adds up to 13)
6-6-6
BRAVE NEW WORLD
____________________

Noted.
But why June 6? Why not January 13? The 13th day of the calendar year! So much more dramatic.
Oh, I get it! June 6 is 6th month, 6th day, and if you really stretch it, the three 2s in 2022 add up to the final 6.

Numbers.

Did you know that roughly 21 million people have the same birthday as you? Crazy.

In fact, a group of 23 people have a slightly over 50% probability of two of them sharing the same birthday.

Thank you Garth, for the eye-opening education you have provided to me and all of us over the many years of reading your blog. I have learned much, and am in an infinitely better position today than I was just 6 years ago, with my entire net worth tied to one address on one street.
Truly, thank you!

#76 The Woosh on 07.15.20 at 8:43 pm

#55 Dirty Dan
Please, pretty please… Garth can you do us one favor.

Can you please let us know the day Jason decides to dump everything into the market again? I need to know when the top is so I can start balancing back into some cash.

Thanks in advance.

———————————

Lmao!! That was good! Jason must be a doctor…or drives a taxi.

#77 Yukon Elvis on 07.15.20 at 8:45 pm

There have now been 17 cases of COVID-19 connected to an “exposure event” in downtown Kelowna over the past few weeks.
During Tuesday’s press conference, Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said the cluster of cases stemmed from a single group of people who attended several private parties and restaurants from June 25 to July 9.
“It was a group of people who knew each other who met up in Kelowna, some of whom were from Interior Health, some were from Alberta I understand, and some were from the Lower Mainland,” Dr. Henry said.
Interior Health has previously said seven people who visited Kelowna later tested positive for the virus.
While Interior Health said Tuesday morning 13 cases were connected to the Kelowna cluster, Dr. Henry said that number has now grown to 17.
“Not all of them are people who reside in Interior Health. There are some from Vancouver Coastal, some from Fraser Health as well,” she said.

https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/305232/Kelowna-linked-COVID-19-cluster-now-stands-at-17-positive-tests

https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/305291/Dr-Henry-urged-restaurant-goers-to-follow-the-COVID-19-rules

#78 Faron on 07.15.20 at 8:54 pm

#67 crowdidelevatorfarts

I thought i detected a certain musk in the air today.

#79 Nixter on 07.15.20 at 8:59 pm

Had a visit to my local ENT guy ,took almost a year for the damn appointment. Had to wear a mask, he’s in a hospital setting, no gloves permitted hand sanitizer only.
Tried to talk to him during the assessment and whipped off the mask telling him I can’t wear this stupid thing. He said speaking through his mask that’s OK, it’s all for show anyway. You know to make people feel better.

Nice to hear a doctor to speak the truth once in a while.

#80 Billy Buoy on 07.15.20 at 9:10 pm

Agreed, so far so good.

As long as the Stimulus continues, we will all look genius won’t me?

Better leave now before being accused of “lecturing” when daring to ask how this wealth distribution looks for the good of everyone….not just on us who have the cash/investments to ride the stimulus wave to glory.

#81 Dirty Dan on 07.15.20 at 9:10 pm

#60 Steven Nicolle on 07.15.20 at 7:26 pm
No I just believe everyone should get a start in life then move up the income ladder. $11.65 is pathetic!

As a business owner, Steven, you can decide to pay your employees more than minimum wage at any time. It is just the minimum, not the maximum. Also, why would you need to pay people a wage similar to Toronto or BC when the cost of living in Manitoba is so much less? You’re being FAR to generous with your staff. It’s important to save some of that money for yourself and to grow the business.

#82 Trump #1 on 07.15.20 at 9:12 pm

DELETED

#83 BC_Doc on 07.15.20 at 9:15 pm

Here’s the link to the New England Journal article on Moderna’s vaccine. Side effects in over 50% of takers at the middle dose of 100mcg. I don’t this is the Jesus vaccine:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022483?query=featured_home

Regarding equity market prices, when I buy a stock, I am purchasing an expected flow of future earnings. Thanks to CV-19, my expectations for earnings in coming quarters and years is much lower. The price I’m willing to pay for those same companies is now much lower than it was a year ago (I wouldn’t pay 8% more for the S and P 500) than I did a year ago— reduced cash flow and earnings mean it’s worth less. Garth, markets are manic. The greater fool rule applies to equities in addition to real estate— like another great cheeseburger eating value investor I am biding my time and guarding my cash. I’m-not falling for a bear market fake.

#84 Suzie Runner on 07.15.20 at 9:24 pm

Garth,

Still early days to declare victory as this could easily be a dead cat bounce, especially if the virus 2nd wave is big in the fall & winter months. Also, you always measure returns from the market bottom, but then contradict this by saying not to time the market.

In other news, it will no longer be necessary for the steerage denizens of this fine blog to drink out of a paper bag as Johnnie Walker is gonna give them a paper bottle!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/johnnie-walker-whisky-will-be-sold-in-paper-bottles-from-next-year.html

Of course, the next step will be to recycle this into some sort of wearable mask.

#85 DON on 07.15.20 at 9:43 pm

“So just man up”

hmmmm…yah…we’re gonna have to ask you to cease and desist Garth. Step away from the keyboatd. You are in violation of telling the truth. Too many feelings have been hurt over the last 24 hours.

Besides lack of reading comprehension…not many will listen until disaster is staring them down.

Been traveling throughout Vancouver Island and things are slow feels like the 80s…cut off jeans…no big hair though, so there is a silver lining.

Economies that are based on tourism and consumer spending…yikes. The main sreet recovery is the one i am watching.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.20 at 10:00 pm

@#81 faron.

“I thought i detected a certain musk in the air today.”

++++
My rebuttal to you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6PRtt_jLUE

#87 kappa on 07.15.20 at 10:12 pm

https://www.williamhaseltine.com/writings/

I would advise all of you to go thru this expert’s writings.
I am not falling for the vaccine news yet. It’s too early for a vaccine. There is a lot of research done in China, UK (Oxford) and the most extensive one in Spain which point that the neutralizing antibodies are declining rapidly in people infected with Covid-19.
That’s the fundamental issue with corona viruses in general: people get re-infected with the same strain repeatedly every year and sometimes several times a year. Corona viruses are known for 50+ years now. No effective vaccine was ever produced for corona viruses.

Here is my problem with Moderna’s vaccine: it produces neutralizing antibodies but it’s not clear how long those antibodies last and for how long that vaccine provides protection. They don’t know it either. But all data about corona viruses point to the same fact: antibodies decline in people infected. In one year only 16% of the initially infected person maintain sufficient level of antibodies to prevent infection.

I’m not looking for a vaccine yet. It’s too early for that. All I need to see is a covid-19 targeted antiviral – this is much easier to develop, much easier to test and certify, it’s safer and it actually can buy us time till we have a properly tested vaccine.

#88 Looking up on 07.15.20 at 10:32 pm

Tim123 on 07.15.20 at 8:16 pm
There is a saying on Wall Street, “Don’t fight the fed”. This is something that traders know from experience. It does not mean there won’t be volatility it just means that the Fed will be supporting the economy and the market. I am trading the market, but as we are at the top of the range for the S&P 500 based on my review of the Wall Street strategists forecasts, I am raising cash and taking some profits. I am still in the markets but when the upside is less than my downside caution is warranted especially on a seasonal basis. Am I timing the market? Yes, I am playing the probabilities but it is not easy to do and you have to be fast on the trades. Anyways, we shall see whether I am correct with a pull back coming.

————-

I have to agree with you. I think we’re going to see a bit of a pullback.

#89 Gregor Samsa on 07.15.20 at 10:39 pm

People that own stocks, corporations, and private jets are getting bailed out. As Garth points out, they were bailed out so successfully, that while the majority of people impacted by the economic shutdowns are still suffering, the wealthy have fully recovered the value of their portfolios.

The price that will be paid for this is that the cost of everything will go up, and keep going up, making you poorer in the process. Somehow the fact that a house that cost $100K 20 years ago is now costing $500K does not register on any “inflation meter.” Or how we pay 10x more for an ever shrinking quantity of food. And how the quality just gets worse and worse.

And they have so successfully rigged the game that most people cheer the politicians and policies that perform these “bailouts.” And not a single politician in the land would dare oppose them.

In related news, Bank of Canada announced today it was holding rates at their current artificial low levels and also continuing “quantitative easing” (aka giving money away to rich people).

Garth’s premise with this blog is that you can “ride the coattails” of the rich by jumping into their markets and maybe you won’t end up living under a bridge. Maybe. Or maybe we should be seeking a better system? (and don’t call this system “capitalism” because that’s not even close to what it is).

#90 SoggyShorts on 07.15.20 at 10:39 pm

#18 YouKnowWho on 07.15.20 at 4:44 pm
#5 physicist
I was under the impression that the virus travelled best in droplets, and that droplets are pretty easily blocked by any physical barrier.

#91 Flop... on 07.15.20 at 10:49 pm

Race to a million.

Hardly.

Skinny house in the Dunbar area for 1.44 will make someone happy.

Too narrow to be able to have any friends over during a pandemic, though…

M46BC

https://www.estateblock.com/vancouver-real-estate/3508-w-18th-ave-vancouver-bc-v6s-1b1-mls-r2475498-1

#92 Doug in London on 07.15.20 at 10:56 pm

I still don’t get it, and likely never will. I’ve seen a lot of people lining up in the cold (on TV of course, because I was still in bed) for Black Friday and Boxing Day sales, but someone like Jason refuses to invest when stocks are on sale. He should have had himself fired out of a cannon at mach 20 and DOVE RIGHT IN to the DIRT CHEAP sales at the time. It’s so simple, I don’t know why everyone doesn’t do so.

#93 n1tro on 07.15.20 at 11:04 pm

#26 rockinror on 07.15.20 at 5:17 pm

I fail to understand the underlying aggression and challenge in many comments. -Garth
——–
Not hard to understand. The aggression comes from missing the train of easy money. Not all of us made out like Sail Away on TSLA gamble but those who invested even if it was through biweekly contributions via payroll are still better off. Covid-19 like all the other recent pandemics are no big deal. People just fell for the fear mongering by the politicians and media.

#94 Steven Nicolle on 07.15.20 at 11:11 pm

#89 Dirty Dan

Point well taken DD. Not saying all business owners would pay the minimum but in this case with the CERB being the choice between getting or the $11.65 an hour the employee might keep their options open and be looking for another job as well that pays more. It is a catch 22. Yes a business owner should not be so generous perhaps with the wages and keep more for reinvestment but keeping or expecting staff to stay will always be difficult. May as well just be self employed rather than a business owner. I am sure you have read a copy of Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki that explains better than I just did on the difference. The cost of living comparison is fair but Winnipeg on $350 a week I don’t think that would cut it either. If you live in the boonies, single and live at home I can see it. But outside of the major cities where do people go to find work? Not Portage La Prairie for most.

#95 Radom thoughts on 07.15.20 at 11:19 pm

First thank you Garth!
Second man up is a saying.
Like mailman or giant leap for mankind.
Good thing the orange leader does not read the blog or he might say the R word. I had lots of respect for him in the beginning but he’s now playing a different fiddle.
To number 32 Alice and worlds oldest profession, I chatted with someone in that profession Yesterday (over coffee) and she said she never been so busy She guessed because of all the CERB money.
Not sure where the world is going but it’s sure interesting watching.
Glad for your words of advice Garth. Up 8 percent so far this year.

#96 willworkforpickles on 07.15.20 at 11:39 pm

World leading bio-tech covid-19 vaccine developer Moderna is bound by clinical trial protocol. If successful, could have a safe and effective vaccine about 26 months from now. Another 6 months afterwards, readily available supply levels could be reached to undergo mass vaccinations.
It could easily just as well crash and burn handing many an investor hopeful his arse in another epic pump and dump bio-tech fiasco.

#97 Cowtown Cowboy on 07.15.20 at 11:41 pm

Hey Garth,

With the boc guaranteeing that they have the consumers back with low interest for as long as necessary, I’m starting to think it’s a good time to load up in debt in the form of a vacation property, thoughts?

#98 millmech on 07.16.20 at 12:48 am

Interesting
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/14/it-starts-mortgage-delinquencies-suddenly-soar-at-record-pace/

#99 Robert Ash on 07.16.20 at 1:48 am

Hopeium Economystics and a group of folks, with no where to go, with their money, if they have any not encumbered. I would have to agree with the BC Doc, at the end of the day, if we are investing in companies, with the Profit Goal, as their key Mission statement, we should pay less, based on Fundamental performance trends negative. If there are no earnings, or life support type Policies, Private and Public, then Mr. Market will take off the Rose colored glasses, and get a shot of sunny reality. And it will start with Corporate Bonds, and Housing market capital depreciation. Now if we had Pipelines, Coast to Coast, we would be employing many more, and our National Income would be enhanced. We cannot continue to print money, while saying the Debt to GDP ratio is better than most G7 countries, ….factor in our Provincial Debt, and Danger is on the Horizon… just a matter of time…

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.16.20 at 2:25 am

#82 Nixter on 07.15.20 at 8:59 pm
Had a visit to my local ENT guy ,took almost a year for the damn appointment. Had to wear a mask, he’s in a hospital setting, no gloves permitted hand sanitizer only.
Tried to talk to him during the assessment and whipped off the mask telling him I can’t wear this stupid thing. He said speaking through his mask that’s OK, it’s all for show anyway. You know to make people feel better.

Nice to hear a doctor to speak the truth once in a while.
————–
Better ditch the Doc. Obviously a quack.
The debate is over. Masks work.
Here’s another example:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/health/coronavirus/how-two-hairstylists-with-covid-19-saw-139-clients-without-passing-on-the-virus-1.5023700

#101 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.16.20 at 2:37 am

#87 Suzie Runner on 07.15.20 at 9:24 pm
Garth,

Still early days to declare victory as this could easily be a dead cat bounce, especially if the virus 2nd wave is big in the fall & winter months. Also, you always measure returns from the market bottom, but then contradict this by saying not to time the market.

In other news, it will no longer be necessary for the steerage denizens of this fine blog to drink out of a paper bag as Johnnie Walker is gonna give them a paper bottle!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/johnnie-walker-whisky-will-be-sold-in-paper-bottles-from-next-year.html

Of course, the next step will be to recycle this into some sort of wearable mask.
————
Not sure if you are a new poster or just have a new moniker.
Pretty feisty, taking on the big cheese.
Also good sense of humor, so if you’re the former, I hope you stick around.
Of course, with the blessing of Mr. Garth.

#102 Sky on 07.16.20 at 3:41 am

The mask debate :

2015 – Vietnam – 1600 hospital healthcare workers – cloth masks vs medical masks :

This large study showed that cloth masks offer piss poor protection AND a probable INCREASED risk of infection. Of course real science won’t deter the fetishists and their mouth bandanas. All others – take heed!

“An analysis by mask use showed ILI (influenza-like illness ) …and laboratory-confirmed virus… were significantly higher in the cloth masks group compared with the medical masks group. Penetration of cloth masks by particles was almost 97% and medical masks 44%.”

“…the results caution against the use of cloth masks.”

” Moisture retention, reuse of cloth masks and poor filtration may result in increased risk of infection.”

“..as a precautionary measure, cloth masks should not be recommended for HCWs (health care workers), particularly in high-risk situations, and guidelines need to be updated.”

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/

#103 Wrk.dover on 07.16.20 at 6:53 am

Bre-ex execs oops, I mean Moderna execs bail at $4. on the $1. That is the company with the cure for the pandemic which makes all stocks float?

They couldn’t hang in long enough for $5, $6. ?

Happy trading day dogs.

#104 TurnerNation on 07.16.20 at 8:27 am

Comrades it will be a cold winter here in the UN tax slave kamp known as ‘Kanada’. Mnay small business kaput.
We are considered dirty, like animals, to be fed on the porch/patio like stray cats.
Such is the new system, all Compassion has been removed.
Some people still think that ‘selfish’ people (who still want individual rights) are ruining it for all of us, and we’d get our freedoms back – if only we all double down on mindless compliance.

Good old Stockholm Syndrome. Meanwhile our so called leaders granted themselves unlimited powers. Years ago I called out that opposition leader as always having a smirkish/game face on. I knew he knew it all was a game. Now we see it was.

Distancing: the greatest social an economic weapon ever unleashed. Some same it was orginally a tactic developed on prisoners of war, that it drove them crazy. How many do you know who’ve lost their minds lately? I can name dozens.

“FP/wire say SIR Royalty hears patios short-term answer
2020-07-15 07:29 ET – In the News

The Financial Post reports in its Wednesday edition that Canada’s restaurants are counting the days to the country’s notoriously cold and long winters, knowing that patio dining is only a short-term solution. A Reuters dispatch to the Post says that even after a bounceback in June, the food service industry has lost a third of its 1.2 million direct jobs due to lockdowns aimed at curbing the spread of the COVID-19 virus. It is on track to lose $44.8-billion in revenue in 2020 compared with last year, according to Restaurants Canada. As restaurants across the country slowly reopen, diners have been flocking to outdoor dining. Restaurants in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, recently opened their outdoor patios for service, with socially distanced indoor dining starting on Saturday in some parts of the province. Experts and economists are aware this is a short-term solution. “We in the north have a problem ahead, and it’s called winter,” Avery Shenfeld, managing director and chief economist of CIBC Capital Markets, said in a note last week. “Our warmer months will see restaurants more dependent on patio space, but the al fresco dining season lasts a lot longer in Miami than it does in Chicago or Toronto.”
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

#105 physicist on 07.16.20 at 8:37 am

The difference between N95 masks and surgical (or cloth face coverings we are advised to wear) is who they are meant to protect.

N95 respirators are designed to protect the wearer from external particulate…they seal to the face. Surigcal masks are meant to protect others from the mask wearer…they do not seal to the face.

For that reason N95 respirators are tested at very high air flow rates to ensure they filter whatever you throw at them. Surgical masks, are tested at lower air flow rates as they will generally see only what is expelled from the wearer.

You don’t have to take my word for it either, simply do a google search of accredited medical mask testing labs and you can confirm this.

#106 BillyBob on 07.16.20 at 8:51 am

The posters smugly self-congratulating their buying the crash in March have a bit of a logical blind spot: the crisis that precipitated the crash also caused massive unemployment. It’s a bit rash to plunge your savings into the market when your primary income disappears, particularly if it was a large one.

Of course one shouldn’t sell into a storm. I couldn’t put anything in, but I certainly didn’t take anything substantive out. Sure, it wasn’t fun watching my nominal net worth drop by 5 figures a day for weeks on end. But this ain’t my first rodeo either. Portfolio is still higher now than in January. And as I mentioned previously our cash reserves alone are enough to sustain us for a period of time longer than anyone’s lifespan. You gotta play your own hand, not someone else’s.

I do laugh at all the whining about “the billionaires being bailed out”. Markets are populated by everything from mom and pop to the 1%. Benefitting people who don’t even have a clue that they’re benefitting (pension funds, anyone)? Be careful what you wish for.

#107 TurnerNation on 07.16.20 at 8:59 am

#80 Yukon Elvis if you remember nothing else know what stories like these are designed simply to take away more of our rights – we are in the Compliance stage.
There’s never a problem at Liquor stores or Big Box stores. They only wish to kill socializing and small business.

#108 BillyBob on 07.16.20 at 9:09 am

#105 Sky on 07.16.20 at 3:41 am
The mask debate :

2015 – Vietnam – 1600 hospital healthcare workers – cloth masks vs medical masks :

This large study showed that cloth masks offer piss poor protection AND a probable INCREASED risk of infection. Of course real science won’t deter the fetishists and their mouth bandanas. All others – take heed!

“An analysis by mask use showed ILI (influenza-like illness ) …and laboratory-confirmed virus… were significantly higher in the cloth masks group compared with the medical masks group. Penetration of cloth masks by particles was almost 97% and medical masks 44%.”

“…the results caution against the use of cloth masks.”

” Moisture retention, reuse of cloth masks and poor filtration may result in increased risk of infection.”

“..as a precautionary measure, cloth masks should not be recommended for HCWs (health care workers), particularly in high-risk situations, and guidelines need to be updated.”

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/

===============================================

Maybe you should read it a little more closely? It compares medical masks to cloth coverings IN MEDICAL WORKERS. Stating that they should wear medical masks, not cloth coverings. Must it really be pointed out that medical workers work in an environment with a higher risk exposure level to Covid-19 than almost any other field?

Ok then. Now that we’ve managed to reach the stunning conclusion that medical workers should really wear medical masks instead of colourful bandannas (who knew?), how about the studies on any cloth covering versus no covering at all?

Or even more relevantly, given the fact regular medical masks are cheap and readily available to the public now, comparing the common surgical mask to no covering?

It is no secret that a regular surgical mask cannot filter out the same amount, or fine droplet size, that a N95 or higher-rated mask can. But the thing that many seem to forget is that virus particles do not travel solo but are attached to other, larger particles, typically aerosols of dust and exhaled moisture.

The probability of infection depends on the load of virus particles that you inhale. Or are exhaling, in the case of community protection, which is the foundation of prevention of infectious spread. Filtration on a surgical mask works by sending the air-flow through a maze of fibres, in which process much finer particles than the pore sizes hit and stick to those fibres and are retained.

I’ve said it many times now. Risk reduction is not an invalid goal just because risk elimination is not possible. Even as the debates rage as to the scope of effectiveness of masks – with most of the anti-crowd clinging to ideological arguments (“Muh freedom”), their debunked science claims aside – there isn’t any excuse to not adopt a cheap, easy preventative measure with no downside other than inconvenience.

#109 Idealistic Realistic on 07.16.20 at 9:18 am

#45 WTF on 07.15.20 at 6:39 pm

“So just man up. (Can I still say that?)”

Its people up…!

—————————-

It’s going to end up being something ridiculous like theyple/themple up!

#110 Brett in Calgary on 07.16.20 at 9:19 am

The intention was clear – fearing tomorrow and doing nothing is not a strategy.

Garth offers plenty of forward-looking advice, but you must act on it at the time at the time it is given. Realize it rarely feels good.

‘Buy when there’s blood in the streets’ — Rothchild.

‘Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful’ — Buffett.

=======================
#73 Sathia on 07.15.20 at 8:09 pm
I’m sure it’s not your intention Garth.

#111 Karen on 07.16.20 at 9:58 am

Preferred share etfs have been on a rampage the last couple days. ZPR up 4.9% and DXP up 3.64% today so far. Anyone know why that is?

#112 Sail Away on 07.16.20 at 10:00 am

#109 BillyBob on 07.16.20 at 8:51 am

The posters smugly self-congratulating their buying the crash in March have a bit of a logical blind spot: the crisis that precipitated the crash also caused massive unemployment. It’s a bit rash to plunge your savings into the market when your primary income disappears, particularly if it was a large one.

——————

Unless they did it by rebalancing, of course. Then they’d just be smart.

#113 Dharma Bum on 07.16.20 at 10:03 am

Ding Dong, the witch is dead!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPIdRJlzERo

Time to go to the cottage and have mass gatherings on the lawn and dock.

You can no longer “keep your rent”. Time to pay up, all you deadbeats and freeloaders.

Excuse time is OVER.

#114 Sail Away on 07.16.20 at 10:26 am

Everybody knows about the swiss army knife. Ever hear about the french army knife?

It has 10 corkscrews.

#115 Brett in Calgary on 07.16.20 at 10:42 am

Case and point on Garth’s advice … preferred shares, possibly the ‘buy of the decade’ a couple months ago. I agreed so I bought more.

Check out ZPR this morning. Not only does it pay 5.5% divvies monthly, it’s currently up over 4% today. Even a US/CAD split as in XPF is paying handsomely (5.3% divvie) with a 1.5% increase. What’s not to like?

#116 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.16.20 at 10:48 am

TIME Magazine’s Man of the Year will be an easy choice:
Fauci: The mouse that sent the big orange elephant packing.

#117 Doug in London on 07.16.20 at 10:53 am

@BillyBob, post #109:
The reason why some of us were smugly buying in mid March is EXACTLY the same reason we bought at other times when stocks were on sale. The fact is there are no sales to be had when everything appeared rosy like in January of this year. Big buying opportunities only occur in times of trouble and uncertainty, just like in early 2009. That’s when you should take Warren Buffett’s advice and never let a crisis go to waste. Or to word it differently, look at what Brett in Calgary posted, which I’ll take the liberty of repeating:

‘Buy when there’s blood in the streets’ — Rothchild.

‘Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful’ — Buffett.

so, what about the massive unemployment? I’ve had periods of unemployment in the past and during those times the dividends and capital gains I made from buying stocks and ETFs that were on sale helped me out immensely. I could actually enjoy being unemployed rather than fear it. Also keep in mind the outrageous debt and deficit that will occur because of government relief programs. We’ll have to pay it back eventually, so get ready for higher taxes for many years to come. If you scooped up cheap stocks and ETFs earlier this year the dividends and capital gains will help you out with those higher taxes that are inevitably coming.

#118 Sail Away on 07.16.20 at 10:58 am

Whoop, just was notified by Starlink that in order to get the system for beta testing, we need to agree to a confidentiality/nondisclosure agreement.

So, sorry, won’t be able to share Elon’s genius with you. Luckily, I’ll be able to continue posting from the remote hunting tipi with full wifi.

What a guy, that Elon!

#119 Faron on 07.16.20 at 11:01 am

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.20 at 10:00 pm

@#81 faron.

“I thought i detected a certain musk in the air today.”

++++
My rebuttal to you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6PRtt_jLUE

Ha ha. Touche

#120 TurnerNation on 07.16.20 at 11:03 am

Prefs are going apesht today. Moon shot. What this does mean and why? Dunno.
Tag this #yieldhound

#121 Preferred Steerage Section on 07.16.20 at 11:13 am

#123 TurnerNation on 07.16.20 at 11:03 am

Prefs are going apesht today. Moon shot. What this does mean and why? Dunno.
Tag this #yieldhound
..

Garth just bought a few million again….

#122 Yukon Elvis on 07.16.20 at 11:27 am

Lots of traffic/tourists in Kelowna these days.

Castanet has received an image of a notice posted at a West Kelowna condo complex on Wednesday afternoon informing residents of reported COVID-19 exposure in the building.
A resident of Sundance Ridge in Shannon Lake says the flyer was posted on the bulletin board in the main lobby and on doors near one of the stairwells between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m.
The notice is dated July 15, 2020 and features the Pacific Quorum Okanagan Properties Inc. logo. It is addressed to owners and residents of the complex and signed off by the Strata Council.
“Council wishes to inform all Owners/Residents of KAS Sundance Ridge, that there is a reported COVID-19 exposure in the complex. These residents are currently self-isolating,” reads the notice.
“Council asks that all residents please be diligent in their own practices of personal protection, wearing masks, wearing gloves and washing hands and using sanitizing products.”
It also encourages residents to contact the Strata Manager if they have any queries.
Sundance Ridge consists of three separate buildings.
Castanet has reached out to Interior Health and the manager of the strata complex for further information.

https://www.castanet.net/news/West-Kelowna/305411/Castanet-receives-notice-to-strata-residents-of-virus-exposure#305411

#123 Sail Away on 07.16.20 at 11:29 am

#114 Karen on 07.16.20 at 9:58 am

Preferred share etfs have been on a rampage the last couple days. ZPR up 4.9% and DXP up 3.64% today so far. Anyone know why that is?

—————–

Yep. Prefs purchased last June mostly back to break-even and still paying those sweet, sweet divvies. This investing business is like owning a money printing machine!

#124 Faron on 07.16.20 at 11:55 am

1/2

Anecdotal real estate report from Victoria. (report that trails off into a dispirited rant about state of affairs)

I went to look at a house yesterday. My partner isn’t listening to my Garth-ese about leveraged buying of real estate in a pandemic. Probably doesn’t help that she knows I spend an inordinate amount of time here arguing against right-wing extremists…

Anyhow, in setting up the appointment, our agent indicates that the house (been on the market for less than a week) has 25 viewings that day so we could only get 15 minutes to have a look-see.

House is a mid-1990s infill. Has seen zero maintenance since build. 450 sq ft footprint over two floors plus a suite totalling just under 1500 sq ft. Awkward. No lot to speak of. In the shade of the other infills. Nice neighbourhood — Fernwood if you know Vic. Asking $690,000.

We meet our Realtor (for the first time). He’s really nice and honest. He jokes about the guys who drive Audis. He drives a Leaf. He makes crass jokes. We like him despite a strong anti realtor bias in both of us.

He informs us that he’s been selling properties at a fast clip, sight unseen, cash sales to out of towners (Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton, Seattle, Vancouver etc). People seem to be fleeing COVID for the clean, pure air of the Island. He guesses this place will go for $30k over asking. Maybe that’s hype to make a sale feel urgent, but the literal line forming in the street for subsequent viewings says he’s telling the truth and the trend is on for the time being.

None of us are impressed with the place. Mouldy soffits, ferns in the downspouts, total crap paint job on interior walls, exterior paint is flaking off and looks like it ever only got one coat no primer, carpet is a mess. Layout is okay, but the house gets in the way of itself. Suite is decent but a dark cave. Overall, a dismal place to borrow half a mil for.

Later, she and I talked it over at burger night on a sunny patio at a place looking over Cadboro Bay. I ranted that I can’t stand being the greater fool when things are so bubble-icious. I have family in Oregon who purchased nice little homes for $250k within easy commute of hot hot hot Portland. You can live a block from the ocean on beaches prettier than Tofino’s in Oregon for the same. Where’s the value here in Vic? She noted that we rent and those rental dollars may just as well go into a house and a suite will help pay into the equity. Stability of ownership. And babies not too far off. Sigh.

Meanwhile, the US breaks 1000 deaths over the day for the first time since early June. That’s another six or seven 737s worth of people dead in one day most of whom wouldn’t have died if the pandemic were controlled. The president of ‘murca hocks Goya products from the oval office — what once was the seat of global power. Indexes gyrate 1-3% in inter day action like it’s no biggie. Rates on 10-year bonds lie dead in the gutter. What the hell is happening?

#125 Masks really do save lives on 07.16.20 at 12:06 pm

Perhaps a steerage roll call is in order…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/fatal-haliburton-shooting-siu-1.5650761

#126 Don Guillermo on 07.16.20 at 12:12 pm

https://edmontonsun.com/news/world/completely-unacceptable-women-brawl-with-airline-staff-at-florida-airport-over-delay/wcm/807cc206-bdc3-4621-b064-6a63c20e63ed

If these were white women the media would call them Karens. What now … Aaliyahs? Probably not

#127 LP on 07.16.20 at 12:39 pm

#112 Idealistic Realistic on 07.16.20 at 9:18 am
#45 WTF on 07.15.20 at 6:39 pm

It’s going to end up being something ridiculous like theyple/themple up!

******************

That’s just mean! I’m temporarily without most of my upper teeth and I can’t say either of those words.

F73ON

#128 Faron on 07.16.20 at 12:47 pm

2/2 (assuming joking with crowdie doesn’t count)

#128 Masks really do save lives on 07.16.20 at 12:06 pm

Perhaps a steerage roll call is in order…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/fatal-haliburton-shooting-siu-1.5650761

I had the same thought. Also, not a peep here when the gunman who ranted essentially the same anti communist garbage on facebook that posters here rant went looking for Justin Trudeau a short while back. Then there’s the BC RCMPer Dustin Dahlman who “just has a different opinion” and apparently is too simpleminded to see that that “opinion” is in perfect alignment if thinly veiled racism.

These people are all intolerant trash in my and many others’ (the majority of Canadians and American) opinions. They likely hold the same beliefs about “cancel culture” and yet they get a voice here albeit small. I’m trying to keep to two posts here and to not weigh in on these things because it’s below the calibre of Garth, myself and probably many others. Frankly, it’s below the calibre of the potential humanity has in the world. It’s all radical, but not in the good way that stirs thought and debate, growth and progress in the community. It’s radical in the way jihadism, chinese oppressionism, bolsonarist nationalism and other isms are — they are harmful and need to be called out for the tripe that it is.

#129 Sail Away on 07.16.20 at 12:48 pm

#127 Faron on 07.16.20 at 11:55 am

I went to look at a house yesterday. My partner isn’t listening to my Garth-ese about leveraged buying of real estate in a pandemic. Probably doesn’t help that she knows I spend an inordinate amount of time here arguing against right-wing extremists…

—————-

…and against centrists, and good investing wisdom, and minorities as well, to be honest.

And you’re thinking kids at 42? Here’s more good advice: Don’t.

That decision is probably not yours, admittedly b

#130 ain't life rand on 07.16.20 at 12:52 pm

@#128 Masks really do save lives on 07.16.20 at 12:06 pm
Perhaps a steerage roll call is in order…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/fatal-haliburton-shooting-siu-1.5650761

bwahahaha

#131 Lambchop on 07.16.20 at 12:59 pm

#128 Masks really do save lives on 07.16.20 at 12:06 pm
Perhaps a steerage roll call is in order…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/fatal-haliburton-shooting-siu-1.5650761
_________________

It’s a sad day when someone is shot to death by police, who were called out because he refused to wear a mask.

I realize something more occurred when the police confronted him, but the police would not have confronted him had he not been refused entry to the grocery store for refusing to wear a mask.

That’s just not a valid reason to be slaughtered.

I don’t understand this world anymore.

#132 BillyBob on 07.16.20 at 1:05 pm

It’s gratifying that the smug folk at least recognize who they are.

@Sail Away

Of course I rebalanced, it’s why I’m ahead now. But depleting cash reserves – which I keep at a modest level in the best of times – are more critical when unemployed and the market is volatile. I bumped my reserves slightly and rebalanced. Basic risk management.

If one’s situation requires placing their living capital at risk, my condolences. If one’s situation doesn’t require risking it and they do anyway, my contempt.

Either way I’m fine.

@Doug

Yep, you missed the point too. I didn’t say it wasn’t a great opportunity, just that those with less fresh capital to risk were less able to take advantage of it. Hope that was easier to understand. Moving some from cash instruments to equities still worked out very well.

Some kind of recovery was obvious but pretending one knew the Fed would pump as hard and as much as they did is hubris. Give it a rest.

#133 preferred shares on 07.16.20 at 1:37 pm

preferred shares … tummy rub. thank you Garth.

#134 Faron on 07.16.20 at 1:51 pm

DELETED

#135 Sail Away on 07.16.20 at 1:58 pm

#131 Faron on 07.16.20 at 12:47 pm

These people are all intolerant trash in my and many others’ (the majority of Canadians and American) opinions. They likely hold the same beliefs about “cancel culture” and yet they get a voice here albeit small.

————–

So extreme, you nutbar. It is nice that Garth allows you a voice, but you so easily veer off into crazyland. Like driving on a banana peel surrounded by crazy on each side.

You must realize that people have different opinions, right? And that only nutbars demonize all who have different opinions than the nutbar?

#136 Masks really do save lives on 07.16.20 at 1:59 pm

#134 Lambchop on 07.16.20 at 12:59 pm
#128 Masks really do save lives on 07.16.20 at 12:06 pm
Perhaps a steerage roll call is in order…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/fatal-haliburton-shooting-siu-1.5650761
_________________

It’s a sad day when someone is shot to death by police, who were called out because he refused to wear a mask.

I realize something more occurred when the police confronted him, but the police would not have confronted him had he not been refused entry to the grocery store for refusing to wear a mask.

That’s just not a valid reason to be slaughtered.

I don’t understand this world anymore.

//////////////////////

If you read the article, you’ll see that a pistol and semi-auto rifle were recovered from the scene, in addition to the police officers’ weapons. Furthermore both responding officers fired their weapons, indicating consensus on the level of threat and amount of force required.

The police were called out because he allegedly assaulted a store employee, not because he wouldn’t wear a mask, (duh)! He further endangered the public by ramming his truck into the store.

https://kawarthanow.com/2020/07/15/man-shot-and-killed-by-police-in-haliburton-following-mask-related-incident-at-minden-grocery-store/

Who’s to say that he wasn’t about to return to the store, heavily armed, when the police confronted and fatally shot him? He had ample opportunity to survive his initial poor judgement; he chose not to take advantage of his options.

But muh rights! You have no ‘right’ to enter any business or private establishment if you refuse to adhere to their required conditions – no shirt, no shoes, no service!

If only eradicating this type of stupidity was as easy as getting rid of Trump.

#137 Russ on 07.16.20 at 2:01 pm

137 @ Far on

DELETED
===========================
Thank you Garth.

This is agood reminder that it is Garth’s forum.

Take note a few others who can too personal and annoying.

Cheers, R

#138 Faron on 07.16.20 at 2:07 pm

4/2

#132 Sail Away on 07.16.20 at 12:48 pm

That decision is probably not yours, admittedly b

You are right, it’s not. I have a loving relationship in which decisions like those are shared equally and given the respect their gravity deserves.

You are slime. By all evidence, sociopathic slime to put a fine point on it.

I’m drawn to fight with you because you are the very embodiment of an intelligent person with roughly zero ethical compunction. You ooze greed to the extent that you foolishly call out “20 bagger” the very instant your beloved TSLA hiccups a double digit percentage back down the valueless hole it came from. You display zero empathy to anyone other than your poor wounded Andy Ngo. You provide next to zero useful insight here and, last I checked, arguing with a minority (who claims the minority card iff it’s convenient for them) is fully above board.

I hope for the love of all that is good that this gets me banned from here so I am less compelled to read the drivel from the likes of you.

#139 Doghouse Dweller on 07.16.20 at 2:09 pm

Bearded bank owner explains investing.

https://youtu.be/Hk23s4hh8M8

#140 Doug in London on 07.16.20 at 2:31 pm

@Billy Bob, post #135:
I didn’t know the Fed would pump so much money into the economy with such a spending blitz either, but from 30 years of investing I know that when stocks take a big drop it’s time to buy if you’re one of that small minority that invests for the long term. It’s that Ockham’s Razor idea of looking for the simplest answer to a problem.

#141 Entrepreneur on 07.16.20 at 2:47 pm

I have to agree with Premier Brian Pallister on ending the CERB and getting people back to work. Isn’t that what and how our economy is made, people working.

On the scroll news the other day a quick mention of bringing in immigration to uphold the economy because we are not breeding for various reasons. I have trouble with that, ever heard “let it fall for it to correct.” To correct not only in the economy section but in the environmental which is more important right now.

Another point: Singh says that taxes do not to be raised but corporations pay higher taxes or something similar.
Now is that investing corporations on our “natural resources” like in our oil, gas, water, trees. Are we putting ourselves in more of a pickle when holding a big deficit then asking investors to come in? Are our leaders not concerned about the environment? UN?

Should we start to forget the old ways and start, like real soon, to work towards renewable energy. And when I say start like about 50 years ago, Hello!

I suggest watching channel 115 APTN, watch the news and learn, uplifting which gives hope.

#142 Sold Out on 07.16.20 at 2:51 pm

#141 Faron on 07.16.20 at 2:07 pm
4/2

#132 Sail Away on 07.16.20 at 12:48 pm

That decision is probably not yours, admittedly b

You are right, it’s not. I have a loving relationship in which decisions like those are shared equally and given the respect their gravity deserves.

You are slime. By all evidence, sociopathic slime to put a fine point on it.

I’m drawn to fight with you because you are the very embodiment of an intelligent person with roughly zero ethical compunction. You ooze greed to the extent that you foolishly call out “20 bagger” the very instant your beloved TSLA hiccups a double digit percentage back down the valueless hole it came from. You display zero empathy to anyone other than your poor wounded Andy Ngo. You provide next to zero useful insight here and, last I checked, arguing with a minority (who claims the minority card iff it’s convenient for them) is fully above board.

I hope for the love of all that is good that this gets me banned from here so I am less compelled to read the drivel from the likes of you.

///////////////

Too right – sadly, intelligence is wasted on those with zero insight, which is clearly not an issue for Faron.

Anosognosia. Anosognosia, also called “lack of insight,” is a symptom of severe mental illness experienced by some that impairs a person’s ability to understand and perceive his or her illness.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4904750/

It’s not just a telling symptom of psychopathology, it’s also a coping strategy. Just like bragging about one’s superior skills and winning attributes on an anonymous blog. Anonymity will soon start to chafe, though; he’ll want his name and face known, too.

People with personality disorders can rarely see their own emotional deformity.

#143 Sail Away on 07.16.20 at 3:15 pm

#145 Sold Out on 07.16.20 at 2:51 pm
#141 Faron on 07.16.20 at 2:07 pm
#132 Sail Away on 07.16.20 at 12:48 pm

That decision is probably not yours, admittedly

————-

You are slime. By all evidence, sociopathic slime to put a fine point on it.

I’m drawn to fight with you because you are the very embodiment of an intelligent person with roughly zero ethical compunction. You ooze greed…

You display zero empathy to anyone other than your poor wounded Andy Ngo. You provide next to zero useful insight here and, last I checked, arguing with a minority… is fully above board.

————-

Anosognosia. Anosognosia, also called “lack of insight,” is a symptom of severe mental illness experienced by some that impairs a person’s ability to understand and perceive his or her illness.

It’s not just a telling symptom of psychopathology, it’s also a coping strategy. Just like bragging about one’s superior skills and winning attributes on an anonymous blog. Anonymity will soon start to chafe, though; he’ll want his name and face known, too.

People with personality disorders can rarely see their own emotional deformity.

————-

SO: obviously, if it’s a mental illness, Faron can’t help himself.

Far be it from me to criticize, but your post seems a bit insensitive to the poor, sick fellow.

Faron, I hope you’re getting the help you need.

#144 RyYYZ on 07.16.20 at 5:13 pm

#109 BillyBob on 07.16.20 at 8:51 am

I could have written this post.
No, I didn’t have the guts to put all my reserves into the market in the downturn. But I didn’t pull any out, either. Still have a job, and enough reserves to get by for a while. Glad to see my portfolio recover. I might need that money more than ever in the future.

#145 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.16.20 at 7:54 pm

Faron- Get your T checked. You’re far too emotional.

But you knew that.

#146 Drinking on 07.16.20 at 9:33 pm

I just do not understand for those who claim to read Garth’s blog, all the warnings, Covid creeping back up, just wait until this flu season, that they just do not get it?? Seriously????? By all means, buy that house, condo, mortgage yourselves to the the extreme only to have it all fall down. No, I do not wish people to do that; if you can seriously and not fret about the future then to each there own but if you cannot and just desire a purchase; now is not the time, save up!!! Cash is King!!

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.16.20 at 10:51 pm

@#127 Faron
” I have family in Oregon who purchased nice little homes for $250k within easy commute of hot hot hot Portland.”
+++

I have a friend who moved to Portland ( he was a refrigeration mechanic, she was a nurse).
They had jobs immediately.
He used to torture us with photos of his pay cheque with the almost non existent tax deductions as he tee’d off on a Friday nooner game.
They love it there.
As BillyBob has implied, Dont get stuck in the home country if other opportunities exist elsewhere.
Especially if you’re young.
You can always move back.

As for purchasing NOW in Victoria……..?
Why not wait 6 months.
You’ll be glad you did.

#148 meslippery on 07.17.20 at 12:16 pm

I have been a employee never a employer so I can only speak as such.
This just came across my screen on BNN headline.
Employers can’t compete with “CERD”.
Is it not only 2k a month ? Rent in most places would eat 50 plus percent of your pay or more leaving $250.00 or less a week to live on. Wow I guess with free trade and offshoring all kinds of good paying jobs this is what happens.