Going hyper

Chris worries a lot. These days it’s about the guys running this joint.

“My hubby and I are in our late-50s,” she tells me.  “We’ve worked hard, bought a house for half of what [email protected] told us we could afford, went without fancy cars and vacations, so that we could make double payments to pay off the mortgage fast. And despite setbacks over the last few years, we’ve managed to set aside money for a rainy day and for a reasonable retirement.”

Okay, all good. Frugal. Industrious. Prudent. Ace savers and planners. So what’s to sweat over?

Our biggest nightmare is that we save, save, save, only to have our retirement turn from reasonable to eating dogfood, all because our government is not being as fiscally responsible as we have been. Inflation is bad enough, but with our current national debt projecting to be over a trillion this year, we worry about whether hyperinflation is a very real possibility.

Would you be kind enough to cover hyperinflation in one of your upcoming blogs? I’ve been reading about Germany in the 20’s to try to understand this topic better but I know you could help with our understanding much more than books can. Is there fair warning or ‘signs’ before Hyperinflation hits? How long does this usually take (days, weeks, or months?) Would you recommend a different investment strategy (acquiring hard assets maybe?) if you suspected that hyperinflation was coming?

Thanks very much Garth. Your knowledge has helped us immeasurably over the years and is very much appreciated!

It’s true we’ve never had debt like this before, and certainly without a war to fight. Ottawa will spend about $350 billion more this year than it collects. That will be added to the debt, which will indeed climb to over $1 trillion. That equals 50% of the economy, but when provincial red ink is added the public debt climbs to 90% of total GDP. Globally, we’re already in the top 20 of wretchedly indebted lands. And it will take years now to climb out of this hole. If ever.

Yabbut, so what?, the voters cry. A poll this week found a majority think Mr. Socks should keep the spigot open rather than focus on getting the books in better shape. We like our CERB. And the NDP is making a lot of noise over there on the left flank calling for a wealth tax to Hoover the 1%ers in order to pay for the Covid billions, plus pushing for a universal income. CERB forever.

In any case, Chris, three things seem certain: there will be years and years of more deficits ahead. The beast is out. Second, taxes will have to increase at all levels, from property levies to a new bracket for income, to user fees and maybe more HST. Every level of government has been whacked. Third, public services will shrink – from garbage collection to the size of the armed forces. Along the way interest rates will stay depressed and savers penalized. Unemployment will be elevated for several years until pre-virus levers are hit. The economy will take a long time to restore, and a 97% year/year decline in passenger traffic at the country’s biggest airport clearly indicates such. (Pearson this week punted a third of its staff.)

Does this sound like a recipe for inflation? Actually, no. We’ll see under-utilization in the economy for a while – idled workers, lost businesses, reduced output and profits, downward pressure on real estate and lower consumer spending. In fact, Chris, all of this massive government spending has been in place to prevent deflation. Maybe even a viral depression. This explains 0% rates, asset purchases by CBs and overwhelming government spending as politicians scrabble back from the precipice.

But, I hear you mutter, what about those hundreds of billions just created? Don’t they water down the currency, make dollars worth less and ignite a wage-price spiral? Won’t inflation spike housing, for example, igniting FOMO as real estate gets more expensive every month and buyers panic?

Anything’s possible and, in fact, a bit of this is happening in some areas, to some commodities. Like Toronto housing, where pent-up demand is boosting prices. That’s not because of inflation expectations or devalued cash, however, but by demand exceeding supply and money costing next to nothing. Hyperinflation can start like this, but it would have to be on a much broader, wider scale – unlikely in Canada where people are already pickled in debt. So an outbreak of hyperinflation here would have to come through excessive money printing, drastically increasing the supply of currency.

That would crash the dollar, send the price of imports surging and lead to insatiable wage demands. Hyperinflation typically happens when prices jump by about 50% a month for a period of time – which is a far cry from the Bank of Canada’s current target of 2% per year. In fact, the latest monthly report came in at -0.4% which is, yes, disinflation. And look at the loonie. It’s worth about the same as it was five years ago, despite our national debt doubling in that period of time. Mr. Market, in other words, does not see the hyper hounds unleashed.

Inflation will not eat your wealth, Chris. Deflation, in fact, is a worse threat. Far scarier. And closer.

You are right, however, to look to Parliament Hill and despair – over the PM’s mom, brother, wife and the judgement of an entire family.

148 comments ↓

#1 YouKnowWho on 07.14.20 at 3:14 pm

Humans not able to touch each other, because of a virus so deadly you need to get tested to know you have it.(credit: TurnerNation)

It is the reality. In our continued series about humans not being able to touch each other, Soft Cell remind us “Once I ran to you. Now I’ll run from you.”

Tainted Love (Don’t Touch Me Please – Covid-19 Remix?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCTBuOheUpE

#2 NoOneOfConsequence on 07.14.20 at 3:21 pm

I think it’s instructive to take a look at Venezula if you want to learn a bit about hyperinflation.

Inflation has been running out of control there for quite some time.

It’s a more recent place to look if you wish to gain deeper insights.

#3 BlogDog123 on 07.14.20 at 3:36 pm

I’ve had enough of Trudeau’s smarmy fake apology face…

If he didn’t have nice hair would the electorate see him for the spendy-WesternAlienationy-reckless-feckless-blackface-brownface-arrogant-power-hungry-airhead that he is?

#4 Jimmy Zhao on 07.14.20 at 3:44 pm

DELETED

#5 cto on 07.14.20 at 3:50 pm

Deflation Huh…
In this strange world called canada,
all that matters to everyone/anyone is real estate.
That’s it! That’s all! It’s the only show in town…
Do you really think this… “deflation”, that you speak of will ever, ever, ever show up there?????
Just askin….

#6 rockinror on 07.14.20 at 3:50 pm

add some pet rocks
to your FANG stocks
due to profligate socks

#7 Dominoes Lining Up on 07.14.20 at 3:53 pm

Agreed, Garth.

And we seem to be hitting a first big bump in the expected ‘recovery’ already, with more layoffs happening or coming up soon.

As you mentioned, YYZ has just laid off 500 more people. I thought this was supposed to be getting better already?

https://globalnews.ca/news/7174106/greater-toronto-airport-authority-cutting-jobs-pearson/

And then there’s this.

The city of Toronto says there will be massive layoffs as well as 60% property tax increases, within just weeks, without major bailouts quickly.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/07/14/we-dont-have-the-luxury-of-time-toronto-to-make-drastic-cuts-to-services-within-weeks-without-help-from-queens-park-or-ottawa-mayor-warns.html

On a $1 million assessed slanty semi, a Toronto 60% increase would mean taxes go from about about $6,000 to $10,000 annually. (A little more than 2x assessed value is the norm for sales prices in Toronto lately) How many could afford that extra burden now?

That city has already put some 9,980 staff on emergency unpaid leave, more than a third of them all. And all cities have a legal bind – they can’t run deficits, by law, so they are stuck. They need the provinces and feds to pull out the credit cards.

Will they? Across the country this would probably add another $100 billion to the current COVID debt splurge.

And that’s just for 2020, already half over. What about next year, and after?

It is not far off when we may be seeing, perhaps starting in just weeks, as you said “…public services will shrink…”. The government-employee haters may smile, but we could be seeing tens of thousands of government workers laid off or taking early retirement packages, not to be replaced.

Hate ’em or love ’em, govt. employees in Canada are large in number and unlike int he US, are more central to our economic foundations and consumer buying power, including real estate. Municipal services are probably more essential in the lives of regular folks than other levels.

The feds and provinces have so far shrugged off requests from cities. This looks like it will be coming to a head very soon. I don’t like the looks of what may become a summer downturn just as re-openings are being attempted.

(correction made re: assessed values and prices)

#8 Andrewski on 07.14.20 at 3:54 pm

Hopefully this housing prediction does not bear out:

https://www.fool.ca/2020/07/12/canadas-housing-market-could-collapse-by-2021/

#9 Woker Jokers on 07.14.20 at 4:04 pm

And more people are forced out of their jobs by the Woke Gangsters:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bari-weiss-quits-new-york-times-slams-paper-abari-weiss-quits-new-york-times-excoriates

I especially like the following paragraph. Apparently it’s OK to bully, shun and badger people out of a job all in the name of “Inclusivity”. I don’t think anyone has explained to the Woker Jokers that doing that actually makes them worse than the people they think they are “Re-educating”. Her story:

“My own forays into Wrongthink have made me the subject of constant bullying by colleagues who disagree with my views. They have called me a Nazi and a racist; I have learned to brush off comments about how I’m “writing about the Jews again.” Several colleagues perceived to be friendly with me were badgered by coworkers. My work and my character are openly demeaned on company-wide Slack channels where masthead editors regularly weigh in. There, some coworkers insist I need to be rooted out if this company is to be a truly “inclusive” one, while others post ax emojis next to my name. Still other New York Times employees publicly smear me as a liar and a bigot on Twitter with no fear that harassing me will be met with appropriate action. They never are.” -Bari Weiss”

#10 More Ron on 07.14.20 at 4:04 pm

“Would you recommend a different investment strategy (acquiring hard assets maybe?)”

Actually Chris, you should focus on soft assets. When in doubt, follow the flight to safety.

Toilet paper!

#11 baloney Sandwitch on 07.14.20 at 4:06 pm

Hyperinflation is possible if there is high public debt (and money printing) but low private debt. Fortunately for us both sides are competing for the title of “most pickled”. Add in higher taxes and we are screwed. Recipe for demand destruction. I was thinking of replacing my 11 year old Honda Civic, but now I think I will drive it for 4 more years.

#12 tbone on 07.14.20 at 4:08 pm

Justin would rather beg for forgiveness than ask for
permission . Arrogant prick to say the least .
He should slide into another term without too much trouble .

#13 Ace on 07.14.20 at 4:08 pm

“CERB forever” sounds like a good name for my new band. THANKS! Been practicing guitar while not working and collecting CERB.

#14 the Jaguar on 07.14.20 at 4:11 pm

The blowback has begun. Not a moment too soon:

https://www.bariweiss.com/resignation-letter

Excerpt:
‘Instead, a new consensus has emerged in the press, but perhaps especially at this paper: that truth isn’t a process of collective discovery, but an orthodoxy already known to an enlightened few whose job is to inform everyone else.’

And that is exactly what is also at the root of the issue with our political leadership that Garth points out with this comment ‘You are right, however, to look to Parliament Hill and despair – over the PM’s mom, brother, wife and the judgement of an entire family.’

Depair is exactly the right word.

#15 Danger Dan on 07.14.20 at 4:20 pm

A good topic today.

I’m certainly suspicious of inflation figures. What good is it to know the cost of a loaf of bread when more and more the bread is comprised of cellulose filler?

Before the pandemic I went around to all the usual shops looking for good clothes and was surprised that Chinese industrial polyester garbage has taken over all the product lines.

What good is it knowing how much a jacket costs when there’s not an ounce of natural fibre going into them anymore?

So on top of an already sliding standard of living the government is going to ask us to pay more taxes, to cover debts that many of us saw dubious, if any, benefit from?

I can see why they want to push digital currency, sure as hell a lot of Canadians are going to want to go CASH ONLY in the near future…

#16 Linda on 07.14.20 at 4:21 pm

Today’s blog photo. Holy doodle, that is one portly pup! I’m very impressed that the human is able to lift & carry:)

About deflation. Doesn’t that allow those with actual cash more purchasing power? Of course, lots of folks these days eschew cash so may not be any possible advantage there.

#17 Lambchop on 07.14.20 at 4:29 pm

#151 Stone on 07.14.20 at 2:37 pm
#110 Lambchop on 07.13.20 at 10:53 pm
I pay my favourite local businesses with cash. My mechanic, my feed dealer, my produce store.
I pay them with cash because I like them and want them to succeed.
Unlike credit or debit cards, with cash there are no fees for anyone and 100% of my bill goes to the business.

Not a fan of the idea of cashless. Too much room for abuse of power and a total lack of privacy. Many people are already cashless, so why even bother with a forced crypto?

———

So what you’re saying is that all these companies you pay cash to would not survive if they had to actually pay income taxes on their earnings?

If so, I look forward to the elimination of cash and these zombie companies. Apparently, the cash/underground economy is what’s holding all of us back from the true economic powerhouse we could become.

_______________

Sometimes I swear, you only read half the words and infer the rest. I’m not paying cash with no receipt, it’s not under the table. These are not zombie companies, just local businesses.
If you pay a retailer with a credit card, they have to pay Visa or Mastercard 5% of the transaction, for the privilege. American Express is 10%!
Debit costs the retailer 2.5%.

Cash costs them nothing, so when I pay my legitimate, on the books, tax included, reportable and traceable invoice, the business gets 100% of the invoice, rather than giving over a percentage to a bank or credit card company.

Learn to read words, and deduce their meanings with logic, not inference. Get a dictionary if necessary.

#18 Wloshjo on 07.14.20 at 4:32 pm

Deflation and hyperinflation (or currency collapse) are both possible. We might even get both where we have a deflationary collapse followed by a hyperinflation as the central bank tries to print its way out of the problem.

To protect against deflation, hold cash in a chequing account at a big 5 bank under the CDIC limit and federal government bonds.

To protect against hyperinflation, hold gold bullion, foreign stocks, and foreign currencies.

To protect against both, hold all of the above. Easy.

That was funny. – Garth

#19 Smartalox on 07.14.20 at 4:32 pm

So DEFLATION is when interest rates go up, and people who are in debt see a greater portion of their mortgage payments go to interest instead of paying down the principal, while the value of the assets related to the debts (i.e.: the value of the house bought with the monster mortgage) declines in value at the same time.

What is DISINFLATION?

#20 Howard on 07.14.20 at 4:34 pm

Deflation, in fact, is a worse threat. Far scarier.

———————————

Not if you’re debt-free.

Oh yes it is. – Garth

#21 looking up on 07.14.20 at 4:35 pm

#8 Andrewski on 07.14.20 at 3:54 pm
Hopefully this housing prediction does not bear out:

———————

Be Leary of the Motley Fool. They have about 200 independent writers that they contract out. A lot of the time one Motley Fool writer will contradict the other and usually there’s no real research just a culmination of news articles that anybody can get. “Don’t buy Air Canada” the next week different writer(I kid you not) Buy Air Canada, it’s a billionaire maker stock it’s once in a lifetime bargain”

A month from now if real estate doesn’t correct another Fool writer will crow “cheap money, fundamentals are great, buy all the real estate you can.”

Ironically when the 2 brothers started their motley fool blog they we’re pretty honest. “It’s impossible to beat the market so just buy low cost index funds.” They discovered one day that peddling stock predictions via newsletters and email services was far more lucrative than suggesting you buy index funds.

Great marketers but that’s about it.

#22 TurnerNation on 07.14.20 at 4:43 pm

#1 YouKnowWho congrats on pole position. That is not my quote but a good one eh?

I’ve been calling for a Fall Harvest in real estate – that the Crown bankers reap what they’ve sown.
60% hike in prop tax might do it. Strangely the city of Toronto is humming along fine. Maybe we didn’t require so many government employees…

#23 Oracle of Ottawa on 07.14.20 at 4:49 pm

Another good day in the stock market thanks to JP Morgan. All this paralyzing hype we’re hearing is just a smoke screen. Believe it or not, it was worse during the financial crises 12 years ago. Always keep a bit of gold for insurance and you’ll be fine.

#24 Howard on 07.14.20 at 4:52 pm

Condo rental listings still piling up in Toronto. 5800 up for rent downtown as per Condos.ca. In late May it was 3900.

Negative cashflow landlords must be anxiously counting the days until the return of students in August/September, but the usual flood of students will likely be a mere trickle this year. Most university courses will be offered online, with only science and engineering students required to be on campus for the lab component of their programmes.

I’m hearing that homelessness and hooliganism (random fights, violence) have spiked in downtown Toronto. Garth’s prediction of a flight to the affluent suburbs over the next few years seems increasingly likely.

#25 NoName on 07.14.20 at 4:54 pm

#149 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 07.14.20 at 2:12 pm
“CBDC should continue to work even during electrical power and network outages.”

Is that even possible?

how old are you, remember this?

https://www.ebay.ca/itm/Model-4850-Credit-Card-Imprinter/153895046617?hash=item23d4dc0dd9:g:1m0AAOSwSvNekj00

#26 Bob in Hamilton on 07.14.20 at 4:55 pm

“You are right, however, to look to Parliament Hill and despair – over the PM’s mom, brother, wife and the judgement of an entire family.”

Said it before and will say it again…..you get what you vote for folks.

#27 Dolce Vita on 07.14.20 at 4:56 pm

That was good Garth.

Bad ending photo though. Trudeau soon to be 3 times breaking Ethics but Canadians still want their CERB gravy train to continue so they won’t care.

Greed >> Morals

The “New Canada”:

Keep shoving money for nothing down my throat and you can near axe murder and it’s all good.

———————–

StatCan (Mom) wanting to know how Cdns and their kids were doing a few days ago. New hat for StatCan (Immigrant Shrink):

“Mental Health Status of Canadian Immigrants During the COVID-19 Pandemic”

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2020001/article/00050-eng.htm

They’re not doing well, imagine that?

———————–

More down their alley:

“Canadian Survey on Business Conditions: Impact of COVID-19 on businesses in Canada, May 2020”

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200714/dq200714a-eng.htm?HPA=1

Not as many Teleworking or working remotely as I would have thought. Businesses still hanging on, reads resilient to me…and THAT is a GOOD thing.

#28 Faron on 07.14.20 at 4:59 pm

2/1

Wild times out there. Globally, the COVID19 toll is the equivalent of thirtythree 737s crashing and killing all aboard per day (this in excess of normal human death rates). In the us, a mere five 737s full of people going down per day. No biggie ;-).

Yield on the US 10 year trending down since June flirting with 0.6% where it’s been, more or less since the ploparooney.

Yield down 2.5 basis points today.

My credit union is out with a 2.29% 5 year mortgage.

S&P up 1.4% today after a 3% peak to trough skid from yesterday to this morning.

10,000 Robinhood accounts added TSLA per hour on Monday, right before it gave back 13%.

#STONKS

Talk amongst yourselves.

Stay balanced dogs.

#29 Mike in Alberta on 07.14.20 at 5:02 pm

Perhaps the question should be “Will increased taxes eat away your retirement savings to pay for the debt and unending CERB?”

#30 Bob in Hamilton on 07.14.20 at 5:04 pm

“You are right, however, to look to Parliament Hill and despair – over the PM’s mom, brother, wife and the judgement of an entire family.”

Actually, upon reflection (without a glib I told you so comment) I think the word “despair” is the right one to use when looking at Canada these days…and it is not going to get better, if at all.

#31 Dolce Vita on 07.14.20 at 5:04 pm

OK, I fibbed a bit about business resiliency in this report:

“Canadian Survey on Business Conditions: Impact of COVID-19 on businesses in Canada, May 2020”

This table from the report is disheartening to say the least:

“Percentage of businesses that reported layoffs due to the COVID-19 pandemic, amounting to 50% or more of their workforce, by sector, Canada, May 2020”

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200714/t001a-eng.htm

——————–

It makes you wonder how accurate the Labour Force Survey is after looking at that table.

Garth probably correct a few days ago, 1/3 out of work and not 12% or so. They just don’t show up in the “official” Labour Force Survey categories.

#32 Do we have all the facts on 07.14.20 at 5:05 pm

In the response to Chris’s fear of inflation there was a prediction of higher income taxes, higher property taxes, higher user fees, an increase in HST, the possibility that the cost of imported goods could increase, higher costs to travel by air, etc. These increased costs will be difficult to meet if wages levels continue to increase by only 2.0% per annum. I wonder what the average wage increase will be in 2020 and 2021?

By the way have you shopped for groceries lately? Disrupted supply chains have certainly not lowered prices in my neck of the woods.

Low interest rates may have kept debt servicing costs low for many but those savings are now baked in. Every bill I pay increases at a rate well beyond the CPI each year. The price of gasoline has already climbed back over $1.00 per litre and seems headed nowhere but up.

In short we will experience considerable inflation in our day to day life for many years to come and if for some reason the rate of return on our investment portfolios declines due to an economic slowdown or if the fickle finger of fate decides to surprise us with another treat our future is bound to change.

My spin on the CPI is that it was constructed to support a political agenda and is no longer based of a realistic basket of the goods and services the general population of Canada requires to survive. Income taxes, HST and EI premiums gobble up a good portion of our gross income each year and provide the Government of Canada with over 80% of their revenue each year. Repayment of an additional $350 billion over 30 years excluding any interest will require an additional $11.67 billion revenue every year. Any guesses who will end up paying this?

If wages or pension income do not keep pace with actual inflation in 2020 and 2021 I see a very rocky road in our future. Buckle up!

#33 belly rubs on 07.14.20 at 5:06 pm

I’m paying slug pickers a nickel a slug. That’s mighty inflated. I’d like to get that down to 3 cents per slug as more people begin to experience cash flow issues. Few have cash and those with cash should dress down for occaisions. Regarding Chris, the Gov can print money all it wants, but supply and demand set price. I expect more acurate price discovery in coming months. Specific shortages might inflate some prices a little. One thing I have learned: it’s easier to make a million bucks in a year of high flying than over a lifetime of servitude.

#34 Jenn on 07.14.20 at 5:12 pm

I wish I could get excited about the We scandal, but I just can’t. I’m a Conservative and didn’t vote for Trudeau (although I honestly didn’t like Scheer but voted for my Conservative MP, Michael Chong) but I have liked how he has handled the pandemic, i.e. deferring to our top doctors, providing support to a myriad of affected individuals and businesses. And for not politicizing the pandemic like some other leaders to the South.

What I want the government to focus on now though is how they are going to turn off the spigot of free money. I am glad that, as a country, we helped and supported so many people, but we also somehow paid CERB to 17 year olds living at home (my son’s girlfriends apparently are on it). The free money has to end so people actually have incentive to get off the couch, don a mask and get back to work. And, we need a solid plan to manage and pay off the debt.

#35 mattbg on 07.14.20 at 5:14 pm

In terms of the power of your earnings, it sounds like taxes reducing your take-home pay are more a concern than inflation diluting it.

I’m not sure how significantly-increased taxation jibes with record household debt levels, but one way or another it has to. And we know that those taxes aren’t likely to go back down once COVID-19 recovery is complete.

You’d think seniors would be a protected group in that context, but I don’t see how it plays out that Millennials will shoulder the burden of recovery when so much of the COVID-19 fiscal incontinence was designed to save seniors’ lives. I think Millennials see “Boomers” rather than “Seniors”. How does that work politically?

It wouldn’t be funny if it actually happened, but I can’t help picture a populist, Trump-like figure from the Millennial generation coming out of nowhere and saying we’re just going to put Boomers that still haven’t made ends meet in a shopping cart with their belongings and push it out to the curb.

#36 Cristian on 07.14.20 at 5:15 pm

“PM’s mom, brother, wife and the judgement of an entire family”

What judgement? There’s no judgement there, just good old greed in its purest form.
Did any of them need the money? Of course not. But why decline it? Why not just take it even if you don’t need it and forget all about decency. Just get it and then get some more, and more and more, even if you don’t need it, just to satisfy that hunger for more.
Many have the hunger accumulate more and more, and for a few it reaches pathological levels where they cannot control themselves and don’t care about anything or anybody.
Such as the Trudeaus.

#37 Billy Buoy on 07.14.20 at 5:20 pm

Deflation on non essentials : Cars, dust collectors, etc.

Inflation on essentials: food, shelter, liquor.

Hyper inflation when demand exceeds supply mainly due to lack of producers as a result of going out of business.

According to depression era parents, on average rural people lived better vs. City folk mainly due to the abundance of affordable food/accommodation.

#38 YouKnowWho on 07.14.20 at 5:28 pm

#22 TurnerNation

Yeah, it’s a good one. But let me tell you, the one you punched out day later (bellow) made be laugh really loud at. very inappropriate time. Reminding me that greaterfool.ca does not have a place everywhere at all times.

“Zika – remember that nothingburger? We were shown one photo of a shrunken head.”

What a great selection of words. I wish it was one continuous sentence though, but that right there is entirely enjoyable.

I can pretty much hear Derringer on Q107 saying “that was Zika with their latest single Shrunken Head, from their new album Nothingburger.”

Oh damn it…I’m crying now.

#39 Stone on 07.14.20 at 5:35 pm

#17 Lambchop on 07.14.20 at 4:29 pm
#151 Stone on 07.14.20 at 2:37 pm
#110 Lambchop on 07.13.20 at 10:53 pm
I pay my favourite local businesses with cash. My mechanic, my feed dealer, my produce store.
I pay them with cash because I like them and want them to succeed.
Unlike credit or debit cards, with cash there are no fees for anyone and 100% of my bill goes to the business.

Not a fan of the idea of cashless. Too much room for abuse of power and a total lack of privacy. Many people are already cashless, so why even bother with a forced crypto?

———

So what you’re saying is that all these companies you pay cash to would not survive if they had to actually pay income taxes on their earnings?

If so, I look forward to the elimination of cash and these zombie companies. Apparently, the cash/underground economy is what’s holding all of us back from the true economic powerhouse we could become.

_______________

Sometimes I swear, you only read half the words and infer the rest. I’m not paying cash with no receipt, it’s not under the table. These are not zombie companies, just local businesses.
If you pay a retailer with a credit card, they have to pay Visa or Mastercard 5% of the transaction, for the privilege. American Express is 10%!
Debit costs the retailer 2.5%.

Cash costs them nothing, so when I pay my legitimate, on the books, tax included, reportable and traceable invoice, the business gets 100% of the invoice, rather than giving over a percentage to a bank or credit card company.

Learn to read words, and deduce their meanings with logic, not inference. Get a dictionary if necessary.

———

Aren’t we touchy. Triggered much? You must be an absolute pleasure to be around.

#40 Long-Time Lurker on 07.14.20 at 5:40 pm

Re: Hyperinflation. I’m not too worried about it. Justin Trudeau and Bill Morneau live here too: It’s also their problem.

#41 Sail Away on 07.14.20 at 5:41 pm

Bird dog training:

Every hunting dog should be willing to enter water to retrieve game. As with all introductions, plan carefully to avoid a traumatic situation for pup.

A good introduction is to run a group of pups together in the sun on a hot day for an hour or so, then herd them to a calm pond with an easy entry spot, and leave them to it. Before long, they’ll be cavorting like dolphins and will forever remember it as great fun.

If you don’t have a group of pups, then you’ll need to get in the water with your pup. What did you expect? It’s a team effort. You’re in this together.

#42 Long-Time Lurker on 07.14.20 at 5:41 pm

>Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro update:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8519495/Brazils-Bolsonaro-says-return-work-new-test-shows-COVID-19-free.html

Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro says he is feeling ‘very well’ after he announced he had coronavirus and vows to return to work tomorrow if he tests negative and is free of Covid-19

The President told the broadcaster CNN Brasil he has not felt out of breath…

By JOE MIDDLETON FOR MAILONLINE

PUBLISHED: 18:34 EDT, 13 July 2020 | UPDATED: 02:04 EDT, 14 July 2020

Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro said on Monday he is feeling ‘very good’ and will return to work if he tests negative for the new coronavirus on Tuesday, but that he will continue to isolate himself until he is free of the virus.

The right-wing president told broadcaster CNN Brasil he has not felt out of breath, nor has he lost his sense of taste.

‘I am very well,’ Bolsonaro said. ‘Tomorrow is scheduled – I don’t know if it’s confirmed – a new exam. And if everything is good, we’ll go back to work. Otherwise, we wait a few days.’

Bolsonaro tested positive for the novel coronavirus on Tuesday last week, after coming down with a fever…

…He scrapped a trip he had planned to northeastern Piaui state, and all his meetings for the week were converted to video calls.

One was with former congressman Roberto Jefferson, president of the conservative PTB party.

Jefferson said he went to the presidential Planalto Palace and sat in front of a large television where he could see Bolsonaro in a makeshift office at his residence.

‘I found the president well, flushed, willing. In very good health,’ Jefferson said Saturday. ‘I only saw him cough once, when I made a joke.’…

…By Wednesday, he said he was already doing very well, crediting his use of the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine – unproven for treating coronavirus – for his mild symptoms.

In the post on Wednesday he wrote: ‘To those who cheer against Hydroxychloroquine, but do not have alternatives, I regret to inform you that I am very well with its use and, with the grace of God, I will live for a long time to come.’….

https://news.yahoo.com/brazils-bolsonaro-fed-quarantine-virus-test-012124265.html

Brazil’s Bolsonaro fed up with quarantine, to take new virus test
AFP
July 13, 2020

…During his interview, Bolsonaro said that he feels “very well” and has no fever or problems breathing. He also has not lost his sense of taste, one of the most common symptoms of COVID-19.

“Tomorrow, I don’t know if the new test will confirm (the virus), but if everything is fine, I’ll go back to work. Of course, if it’s the other way around, I’ll wait a few more days,” said the 65-year-old, adding he hoped to resume his activities within a week at most.

“Otherwise everything is fine. We are working by videoconference all the time and we are doing our best not to let things accumulate,” he said.

Brazil is the second-worst hit country in the world, after the United States. As of Monday, 72,833 people had died out of 1.8 million confirmed cases.

During his weekly Facebook Live post last Thursday, Bolsonaro said that after feeling unwell, he had started taking one hydroxychloroquine tablet every day.

The drug, originally tested to fight malaria, has been pushed as a treatment for COVID-19 in many countries — but its effectiveness has not been formally proven and the issue is deeply dividing the global scientific community.

“I took (hydroxychloroquine) and it worked, and I’m fine, thank God. And let those who criticize it at least offer an alternative,” he said during the Facebook Live.

#43 Oakville Sucks on 07.14.20 at 5:43 pm

Does anyone believe the Bank of Canada or FED with respect to inflation? It’s a total fabrication!

The best way to prove this to you is by looking at your cost of living….Have you ever seen a 2% inflation year??? Doubt it!

The real number falls in the 5% to 7% range!

#44 Morty on 07.14.20 at 5:45 pm

#17 Lambchop on 07.14.20 at 4:29 pm
#151 Stone on 07.14.20 at 2:37 pm
#110 Lambchop on 07.13.20 at 10:53 pm
I pay my favourite local businesses with cash. My mechanic, my feed dealer, my produce store.
I pay them with cash because I like them and want them to succeed.
Unlike credit or debit cards, with cash there are no fees for anyone and 100% of my bill goes to the business.

Not a fan of the idea of cashless. Too much room for abuse of power and a total lack of privacy. Many people are already cashless, so why even bother with a forced crypto?

———

So what you’re saying is that all these companies you pay cash to would not survive if they had to actually pay income taxes on their earnings?

If so, I look forward to the elimination of cash and these zombie companies. Apparently, the cash/underground economy is what’s holding all of us back from the true economic powerhouse we could become.

_______________

Sometimes I swear, you only read half the words and infer the rest. I’m not paying cash with no receipt, it’s not under the table. These are not zombie companies, just local businesses.
If you pay a retailer with a credit card, they have to pay Visa or Mastercard 5% of the transaction, for the privilege. American Express is 10%!
Debit costs the retailer 2.5%.

Cash costs them nothing, so when I pay my legitimate, on the books, tax included, reportable and traceable invoice, the business gets 100% of the invoice, rather than giving over a percentage to a bank or credit card company.

—————————————————————

You processing rates are from the late 80s. Rates are no where near what you quote.

Closer to 2.50% effective on V/MC, Amex closer to 3%. Interac averages less then 10 cents a transaction.

And you don’t pay V/MC, you pay the acquirer with most of the rate going to the card issuer. V/MC take around 10bps.

And there is a cost to handle cash but you are so out to lunch on credit/debit costs I’m not sure it makes sense to lay those out for you. Most business that are cash heavy are indeed looking to minimize / reduce taxes.

No bone to pick with you but wanted to correct obviously bad info.

#45 Long-Time Lurker on 07.14.20 at 5:50 pm

“During his weekly Facebook Live post last Thursday, Bolsonaro said that after feeling unwell, he had started taking one hydroxychloroquine tablet every day.”

>I just looked over that second article. Bolsonaro’s dosage of one pill a day is below the recommended dosage as per the successful promoters. (Dr. Vladimir Zelenko. Henry Ford Health System.) He won’t have as beneficial effects as strong they described. It’ll probably take him longer to get to full health.

#46 Reality is stark on 07.14.20 at 5:52 pm

All this talk of the “rich” killing society. The Democrats would have you believe all the fault lies with the rich.
The truth is that public service socialist nepotism is far more likely to be the cause of your demise.
The ruling public servants don’t like the “rich” whether the rich were industrious and earned it doesn’t matter a tinker’s cuss.
There are probably 50,000 public service administrators in this country where you would have a difficult time trying to figure out exactly what the job description translates to in definable tasks.
At $100,000 a pop on average that’s a lot of money for very little value.
Socks is no different than the rest. Friends and family on the taxpayer dole. As Canadians we don’t mind being ripped off as long as we don’t support those lousy ambitious entrepreneurial “rich” meanies.
As I have been saying for years now the taxes are on the way, your disposable income will take a major hit, your lifestyle will suffer immensely but most Canadians will love every minute of it. Especially while you fund someone on pension for 35 years (who only worked for
28 years).

#47 GranddaddyPurple on 07.14.20 at 5:52 pm

Appreciate you taking time to write this daily blog Garth. Thank you

#48 What’s the point on 07.14.20 at 5:59 pm

The GTA real estate market seems to, once again, be on steroids. I realize there was pent up demand, but I think it seems more than that. People just keep buying. Every house that is listed in my area of Guelph, which I don’t even think is part of the GTA, days later – sold signs everywhere. Get this, I even had 2 separate people mail me a letter asking me if I wanted to sell. In my mailbox! What the heck? My house isn’t even that great? Maybe I should cash
out. . .but where to go. My kids are here, I mean their older but still. Where do I go? Up north? What do you think Garth, should I cash it all in and move out east?

#49 The Woosh on 07.14.20 at 6:00 pm

#17 Lambchop

#151 Stone on 07.14.20 at 2:37 pm
#110 Lambchop on 07.13.20 at 10:53 pm
I pay my favourite local businesses with cash. My mechanic, my feed dealer, my produce store.
I pay them with cash because I like them and want them to succeed.
Unlike credit or debit cards, with cash there are no fees for anyone and 100% of my bill goes to the business.

Not a fan of the idea of cashless. Too much room for abuse of power and a total lack of privacy. Many people are already cashless, so why even bother with a forced crypto?

———

So what you’re saying is that all these companies you pay cash to would not survive if they had to actually pay income taxes on their earnings?

If so, I look forward to the elimination of cash and these zombie companies. Apparently, the cash/underground economy is what’s holding all of us back from the true economic powerhouse we could become.

_______________

Sometimes I swear, you only read half the words and infer the rest. I’m not paying cash with no receipt, it’s not under the table. These are not zombie companies, just local businesses.
If you pay a retailer with a credit card, they have to pay Visa or Mastercard 5% of the transaction, for the privilege. American Express is 10%!
Debit costs the retailer 2.5%.

Cash costs them nothing, so when I pay my legitimate, on the books, tax included, reportable and traceable invoice, the business gets 100% of the invoice, rather than giving over a percentage to a bank or credit card company.

Learn to read words, and deduce their meanings with logic, not inference. Get a dictionary if necessary.

—————————————

Yeah right! They keep everything. The Bank charges fees when a business deposits cash. But wait…you’re right! They didn’t deposit the cash and saved the bank fees…and do you know why? Because they don’t want to declare and pay tax on it. Lol…you’re a funny little creature.

#50 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 07.14.20 at 6:05 pm

“You are right, however, to look to Parliament Hill and despair – over the PM’s mom, brother, wife and the judgement of an entire family.” — Garth

That “We little thingy” will not hurt Prime Minister Justin Trudeau politically at all. To his credit, Justin Trudeau was quite open during the previous two election campaigns about the sort of crimes, sins, and abominations that he supported. He did not try to hide his agenda like some politicians do. Those who voted for him did so because they wanted a bad character in charge. They will not care if he stuffs some money in his own pockets and in his family members’ pockets as long as he also stuffs some CERB/UBI money in their pockets too. With modern, high-tech, printing presses, there is plenty of money to go around. Lots of “boodle” for the politicians, and enough left over to buy votes with.

#51 Angela on 07.14.20 at 6:06 pm

I’m concerned how I’m going to get a good rate of return, like 1-3%, in my old age on the money I’ve spent a lifetime accumulating. $1M used to provide a pretty good income in retirement. I’ll need an $8-10M nest egg just to afford Depends and slippers if interest rates stay low.

#52 cuke and tomato picker on 07.14.20 at 6:11 pm

T plan to cut Trudeau some slack. Also when Trudeau ran in the last election he said he would give people 75 and older an extra 10 per cent on their OAS is that still on?

#53 jal on 07.14.20 at 6:13 pm

Recovery
the act or process of recovering. …the act or process of returning to a normal state after a period of difficulty. …. the return of something that has been lost, stolen, etc.

Recovery implies going back to the way it used to be before covid

Its a lie. Its misdirection to use the word “recovery”.
Why not tell the truth. We are never going back.

Its starting to look like that those who were in hospital with covid19 are not going to return to a normal state.

Yesterday is gone.

#54 Leo Trollstoy on 07.14.20 at 6:15 pm

DELETED

#55 Penny Henny on 07.14.20 at 6:20 pm

Chris worries a lot. These days it’s about the guys running this joint.

“My hubby and I are in our late-50s,” she tells me.-GT
///////////

How do you know Chris is a she?

The GreaterFool DNA test, of course. What are your pronouns? – Garth

#56 Lambchop on 07.14.20 at 6:23 pm

#39 Stone on 07.14.20 at 5:35

Aren’t we touchy. Triggered much? You must be an absolute pleasure to be around

____________

Triggered. Possibly the most idiotic fashionable term. Is it no longer possible to just be annoyed by something?

Anyway, I usually am an absolute pleasure to be around, you are correct.
However, today my tolerance levels have been affected by someone on my jobsite being crushed to death in an accident, so I apologize for my last statement to you, regarding dictionaries.

#57 EarlySpring on 07.14.20 at 6:24 pm

Hey Garth, and dawgs. I am a long time reader, about 8 years now, but haven’t commented much, usually just here to learn, not preach.
I value your insight and have put it to work.
But I can’t help to think that I should acquire some gold and silver, why is this such a poor idea? I can’t trust the government fully, they aren’t leading us down a prosperous path. Can you please address the bullion markets sometime again. All o know is you aren’t a fan.
I am just here to learn for my young family, I appreciate any input you or others here have.
Thanks, take care all.

Metals are 100% speculative, have heightened volatility and pay no interest or dividends. For almost everybody, PMs are a bad idea. – Garth

#58 willworkforpickles on 07.14.20 at 6:28 pm

If governments keep pumping out free charity at the rate they’ve been going, we’ll see inflation and deflation combined. Inflation on essentials…Deflation on non essentials. This kind of stagflation comes when money is constantly pumped into a largely non producing economy.
Were seeing signs of the two combined already.
As I said here 4 months ago, this tidbit of economic woe gradually this way cometh.

#59 willworkforpickles on 07.14.20 at 6:36 pm

Couple examples.
Look at vehicles for sale prices…Down 30%
Look at food prices…Up 30%

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.20 at 6:41 pm

@#39 Stone
“Aren’t we touchy. Triggered much?
“””””

Nah, yer just annoying.

#61 GRG on 07.14.20 at 6:52 pm

“…You are right, however, to look to Parliament Hill and despair – over the PM’s mom, brother, wife and the judgement of an entire family.”

Lack of judgement.
The PM and his family have no clue about the lives most Canadians live.
But our intellectual elites, including the MSM that keep coating him in Teflon, identify with him. And that’s all that counts in a country where all of the official oppositions have absented themselves from the national scene.

#62 Keith in Rio on 07.14.20 at 6:52 pm

Chris,

If you are reading the replies here, consider what I and thousands of others Canadians have done.

We sold everything, and LEFT PERMANENTLY, for a much warmer and more hospitable country, with a cost of living 1/4 that of Kanaduh.

Central America or South America are two great choices.

#63 Nonplused on 07.14.20 at 6:54 pm

Call me a skeptic but I still don’t think they can raise taxes by much, or at least not tax revenues. We are at peak tax already. Any increase in taxes in one area is just going to lead to less spending in another and thus economic contraction. The amount of dollars out there is finite and it must serve both taxes and economic activity. Doesn’t mean they won’t try though. It will end badly.

The US, I don’t know if I would say “fortunately” for them, has a relatively easy but politically unacceptable way to finance their new debt; reduce spending on the military. I don’t think that will happen until all other avenues have been exhausted but they could in theory and still have the world’s premier fighting force. Canada doesn’t really have that option, we don’t spend a lot in that area as it is. But we don’t really have any natural enemies on our borders either and if necessary we are defended like Switzerland (lots of people have a hunting rifle with a scope and they know how to use it). (The US doesn’t have enemies on its borders either, but they perceive themselves to have “interests” globally.)

There is an argument to be made that government debt is actually deflationary over the long term because all that debt is a drag on the economy. Not sure about that. I guess we shall see. But if we imagine a future day where tax rates are even more confiscatory in an effort to redeem all that debt I could see it putting a real brake on the economy.

#64 MF on 07.14.20 at 7:01 pm

62 Keith in Rio on 07.14.20 at 6:52 pm

…..And we are much better for it.

See you when the next revolution strikes.

MF

#65 MF on 07.14.20 at 7:08 pm

Isn’t there a safeguard against hyperinflation? Mainly the interest rate? If the dollar falls too much, we have lots of room to raise rates..that’s for sure.

Also, there still is demand for Canadian government bonds, keeping rates low. Same old story. We are in debt, but everyone else is in more debt. It’s the same story with stocks. Yeah it’s overvalued, but there is no alternative.

MF

#66 Faron on 07.14.20 at 7:13 pm

3/1 (I guess I wont be posting tomorrow, or this will get quota-ed)

#25 NoName on 07.14.20 at 4:54 pm
#149 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 07.14.20 at 2:12 pm
“CBDC should continue to work even during electrical power and network outages.”

Is that even possible?

Ah, for the love of Pete guys.

Here are some ideas I can think of off the top of my head for how this will work:

–NFC/RFID takes almost no energy relative to a Li ion battery.

–Your wallet will (continue to) be your phone or a cheap RFID FOB with a few coin cells in it and a fingerprint scanner. Likely both.

–FOB will be sealed, so 100% waterproof and very durable. Battery life of years is likely.

–Details on your account holdings will live in the cloud somewhere, so no biggie if you lose the FOB (unless you lose your finger with it). Thing is disposable and can be replaced for a nominal fee that will be high enough to keep people from losing the damn thing.

–There will be touchless NFC terminals associated with every ATM, park bench, cash register, cross walk, light post etc etc. They will be ubiquitous and free to use. (All working over the 5G network BTW)

–When grid power is off, transactions continue and are logged on the FOBs in both parties’ blockchain thus when the FOBs are re-synced, it will be clear if someone conveniently “lost” their FOB trying to avoid the transaction.

–Like all crypto, it will be decentralized, so extremely difficult to hack because a near infinite set of copies of the truth are everywhere. The only threat will be the rise of quantum computing that will make encryption more burdensome for non-quantum use until quantum tech is common.

–EMPs will become a worry, or more of a worry I should say. And solar flares too. Both could then do serious harm no matter from Trump’s arse or from the fireball in the sky.

–Catastrophic volcanism can’t be hedged against. If it happens, just make sure you enjoy the sunsets until it gets too cold out.

The above is pure speculation on my part, but all of the tech is there and will get cheaper and cheaper with each passing year. I give it a decade.

#67 Stone on 07.14.20 at 7:15 pm

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.20 at 6:41 pm
@#39 Stone
“Aren’t we touchy. Triggered much?
“””””

Nah, yer just annoying.

———

I’m just trying to catch up to you but youuuuuuu’re so far ahead.

#68 Still Tired on 07.14.20 at 7:27 pm

I’m so tired
I’ve been eating too much
collecting CERB,
bored.

My kid smoked up,
Ended up in the hospital.
Lonely.
I should probably go for a walk.

#69 Kilt on 07.14.20 at 7:29 pm

Deflation, in fact, is a worse threat. Far scarier.

———————————

Not if you’re debt-free.

Oh yes it is. – Garth

———————————

This one is debatable. I lived through Japan’s deflation and as someone who didn’t have debt or solid assets, I actually enjoyed it. On the down side was no pay raises, and often an increase in what you had to do for the same pay. Businesses also suffered, mainly because they went from an environment of making stupid amounts of money just being open to actually requiring a decent product to attract people.
But for me it was great, food/drink prices never increased, rents got cheaper, and you always had cash in your wallet at the end of the month.
The only way Canada can prevent deflation is to 1) keep shoveling money to the masses or 2) keep the doors open to immigration. With Covid, door #1 seems like the only option to go with.

Hyperinflation won’t happen. Weakening Canadian dollar makes us far too competitive and strengthens the economy due to increase in dollars received for our natural resources. $40 per barrel oil isn’t that bad if the $CAN = $0.50US

Chris – you could always cash out of the home and look for a warmer climate to retire in.

Kilt.

#70 Leftover on 07.14.20 at 7:30 pm

I’m not as sanguine about interest rates. If Biden gets elected, raises taxes, and at least slows down the printing press in the USA, then we have to respond.

We don’t have the capacity to raise taxes because we don’t have enough rich people. That means we’ll have to compete in the bond market against USD and EUR, and that won’t go too well. A small country with massive private debt isn’t such a great thing when the masters of the universe price our bonds. Prices down, yields up, rising mortgages.

Even a couple of hundred basis points could be catastrophic.

#71 Yukon Elvis on 07.14.20 at 7:30 pm

#61 GRG on 07.14.20 at 6:52 pm
“…You are right, however, to look to Parliament Hill and despair – over the PM’s mom, brother, wife and the judgement of an entire family.”

Lack of judgement.
The PM and his family have no clue about the lives most Canadians live.
But our intellectual elites, including the MSM that keep coating him in Teflon, identify with him. And that’s all that counts in a country where all of the official oppositions have absented themselves from the national scene.?
………………………………

Give this man a cigar.

#72 Yukon Elvis on 07.14.20 at 7:32 pm

#65 MF on 07.14.20 at 7:08 pm
Isn’t there a safeguard against hyperinflation? Mainly the interest rate? If the dollar falls too much, we have lots of room to raise rates..that’s for sure.

Also, there still is demand for Canadian government bonds, keeping rates low. Same old story. We are in debt, but everyone else is in more debt. It’s the same story with stocks. Yeah it’s overvalued, but there is no alternative.

MF
………………………………..

You get a cigar too.

#73 Gary on 07.14.20 at 7:33 pm

Garth how about a real blog on inflation as it varies for each person or family.
My inflation in the past 12 months
Rent 2.6%
Car insurance 7.5
Gas 0%
Tenant policy 8%
Food 8%
Hydro 5%
Personal health services 10%
Really not noticing much difference in clothing as I usually find a discount here and there.
Also I guess I am a lucky one as I got a 2% raise this year.
Most are seeing inflation regardless of what stats Canada says

#74 Rowdie on 07.14.20 at 7:40 pm

One wonders if we are going to have a decent, law abiding PM in this country. Like one of the comments “you get what you vote for”. Really sad, and terrifying what lays ahead for Canada. The government is so corrupt, and so far left it is beyond explanation. I suppose some of us who see through the fog, will have to manage somehow. Feel the virus is diminishing, seems life is getting back to a somewhat normal pace.

Cheers!

#75 Drinking on 07.14.20 at 7:55 pm

Cash is King but T2 really needs to do the honorable thing and resign; his policies will decimate this country, the guy just is not Prime Minister material and the sad part is that he knows it and refuses to do anything about it. How many more scandals can one get away with?? And people on this blog are incredibly harsh on Trump even though 99% of them do not live in his country??? Canadians, look the horse in the mouth right here at home, never mind Trump, we have our own issues!!!!

#76 Steve French on 07.14.20 at 8:02 pm

Sir Garth:

I know how you always rage against bullion lickers…

But I have kept 5% of my B & D, liquid and highly sexy portfolio in the gold miner ETF “GDX” , and to be honest it has been my best performer over the last 4 years. Even better that the S & P 500 index fund.

GDX has played a crucial role in buffering the losses in my portfolio since January.

So what do you make of that?

Take profits. – Garth

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.14.20 at 8:12 pm

#74 Rowdie on 07.14.20 at 7:40 pm
One wonders if we are going to have a decent, law abiding PM in this country. Like one of the comments “you get what you vote for”. Really sad, and terrifying what lays ahead for Canada. The government is so corrupt, and so far left it is beyond explanation.
——————-
I guess you’ll join Keith in Rio, Brazil where the Government is so corrupt, and so far right it is beyond explanation.
Take a shovel with you.
Grave diggers are in high demand.

#78 Tyberius on 07.14.20 at 8:15 pm

PreCovid Now Change% change

Haircut $15.00 $20.00 $5.00 33.3%
Platter for 2 $48.00 $58.00 $10.00 20.8%

Gold (USD)YTD $1,550 $1,810 $260 20.7%

Here’s what I’ve seen so far in terms of pricing. If it’s true that gold signals inflation down the road, then it’s surely pricing it in already.
Having said this, oil has plunged this year from ~$60 to $40 ish now.
Sure feels like there’s an inflation vs deflation war going on currently (at more extreme levels than usual). The slowing of the economy certainly deflationary overall; defecit spending and expanding the money supply obviously being inflationary.
Throw in currency wars and trade wars and we have a recipe for volatility everywhere. Let’s hope they won’t lead to dropping real bombs!

Interesting times indeed – and scary if you think about it.

#79 IHCTD9 on 07.14.20 at 8:19 pm

#20 Howard on 07.14.20 at 4:34 pm
Deflation, in fact, is a worse threat. Far scarier.

———————————

Not if you’re debt-free.

Oh yes it is. – Garth

————-

Deflation might be a good topic for a blog too someday, I don’t hear it talked about near as much as inflation – and it does seem like we’re headed for it.

#80 Vancouver and Alberta Super Spreaders Descend on Kelowna on 07.14.20 at 8:20 pm

Major outbreak in Kelowna. Hotels were reporting 80-90% capacity.

You knew it was coming. Stage 3 reopening, everyone acting like life is back to normal.

Where did the super spreaders go? Where didn’t they go? All over downtown, restaurants, gym, 1200 per night air bnb a flight out to YVR and eventually back to Vancouver and Alberta where they reside.

So, basically exposing the entire community. And active cases are not popping up locally. Can’t throw away Summer vacation because of a pandemic, eh.

In the wake is now a massive quarantine effort which basically extends to anyone who has been out in Kelowna for the past few weeks.

This is gonna be a problem.

#81 Wrk.dover on 07.14.20 at 8:26 pm

Wanna see a person going all giddy while receiving more money from charity per minute than I have ever earned in a day from honest work?

well click on this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSv4egteiSE&t=37s

#82 Airport Specialist on 07.14.20 at 8:27 pm

All the airport authorities have cut back. Unprecedented cuts to real good paying jobs. I mean real good management jobs.

But the bigger story is the airport activity: most airports from YVR to YYZ are reporting 95-98% drop in business.

That is insane!!!!!! You want to talk about worst case scenerio – just happened bro.

I know all the IAAEs throughout Canada. No living memory of a downturn this bad.

#83 Airline PR and BC Budget on 07.14.20 at 8:40 pm

5 flights from or to Regina, Saskatoon carried passengers with coronavirus. Airlines are toast with this virus kicking around.

BC was forecasting a balanced budget for 2020. Now we are facing a 12.5 billion dollar deficit for 2020. Um, say what?

#84 Steven Rowlandson on 07.14.20 at 8:44 pm

“Inflation will not eat your wealth, Chris. Deflation, in fact, is a worse threat. Far scarier. And closer.”

Inflation to the point of hyperinflation always ends in deflation like 3 to 9 zeroes off the currency supply.
There is no real escape from disaster except to quit going into debt and quit the excessive spending and use proper money instead.

#85 October Forecast on Target for Vaccine on 07.14.20 at 8:49 pm

Moderna says all patients produced neutralizing antibodies in vaccine trial.

Robust immune response in the patients.

Moderna shares soar.

I was thinking W shape recovery but no longer think that. This is V shaped. Its over. March madness was the dip.

The stock market already knows this.

#86 Tim123 on 07.14.20 at 9:06 pm

It is probable that interest rates will be low so savers who do not invest in equity markets will not make enough to retire on. I hope the couple in question are familiar with ETFs because they are a low cost of investing assuming you choose the right sectors. It is definitely different times and it could really get difficult for people if real estate crashes, as most people have their whole net worth in there. Anyways, good luck to all the investors out there, think about having some diversification across your portfolio and take advantage of the volatility in the equity markets.

#87 Stealth on 07.14.20 at 9:06 pm

Hyperinflation is a non event.
To trigger it you need more factors involved on top of economic collapse and pandemics. Specifically war plus sanctions plus political instability usually caused and done by other nations onto yours.
Then I would say sure there is a good chance of hyperinflation.

Even then people were fine. Drive less, eat more potatoes etc. It passes, year or two.
Cool thing is that you can be multi trillionaire and number of zeros occupy the entire note.

But still no problem. You either win or get occupied and it goes away.
So…..

Also everyone gets cheap alcohol and smokes which could be a plus for some plus free public transportation, and everyone gets healthier and loses weight.

Check out Yugoslavia in the 90s.

#88 TurnerNation on 07.14.20 at 9:12 pm

#38 YouKnowWho it appears I’m up to 4 fans, shy of Smoking man’s record. Miss Q107’s Psychedelic Sundays. ( This is a boomer music blog afterall.)
Life is funny sometimes, heading back from Bymark patio this week I found myself smiling. All I had to do was say to myself: We are living the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on mankind.
The sense is nothing we’ve seen before.

#89 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.14.20 at 9:41 pm

#26 Bob in Hamilton on 07.14.20 at 4:55 pm
“You are right, however, to look to Parliament Hill and despair – over the PM’s mom, brother, wife and the judgement of an entire family.”

Said it before and will say it again…..you get what you vote for folks.

—–

I didn’t… I got what Toronto and Montreal voted for..

#90 CL on 07.14.20 at 9:42 pm

Pandemic? What pandemic?

“Airbnb bookings pick up, cross one million mark on a single day”

https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/airbnb-bookings-pick-up-crosses-one-million-mark-on-a-single-day-2194590

#91 Looking up on 07.14.20 at 9:46 pm

62 Keith in Rio on 07.14.20 at 6:52 pm
Chris,

If you are reading the replies here, consider what I and thousands of others Canadians have done.

We sold everything, and LEFT PERMANENTLY, for a much warmer and more hospitable country, with a cost of living 1/4 that of Kanaduh.

Central America or South America are two great choices.

_____________

My job has taken me all over the world. After you’ve visited enough countries you realize that there are very few countries as good as Canada.

Believe me the grass is always greener…..

South America really dude ????????????

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.14.20 at 9:55 pm

@#68 Still tired
“My kid smoked up,
Ended up in the hospital.
Lonely.
I should probably go for a walk.”

++++

Take your hospitalized kid Doritos and chocolate coffee beans.
Take him for an elevator ride.
You’ll still be lonely but you’ll be very amused.

Elevators.
Where strangers become ……. stranger.

#93 Chaddywack on 07.14.20 at 10:00 pm

Deflation sounds good for me. Prices dropping every month and savers being rewarded for being prudent when the value of their cash effectively buys them more and more as time goes on.

Savers have been punished the last decade as real estate values soared. Maybe it’s time to restore the balance?

#94 kingston boy on 07.14.20 at 10:01 pm

@#91 Looking up on 07.14.20 at 9:46 pm
62 Keith in Rio on 07.14.20 at 6:52 pm
Chris,

If you are reading the replies here, consider what I and thousands of others Canadians have done.

We sold everything, and LEFT PERMANENTLY, for a much warmer and more hospitable country, with a cost of living 1/4 that of Kanaduh.

Central America or South America are two great choices.

_____________

My job has taken me all over the world. After you’ve visited enough countries you realize that there are very few countries as good as Canada.

Believe me the grass is always greener…..

South America really dude ????????????
—–

ya, the folks who leave for their alleged utopias are usually the most negative and curmudgeonly.
hope they don’t come back

#95 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.14.20 at 10:04 pm

#61 GRG on 07.14.20 at 6:52 pm
“…You are right, however, to look to Parliament Hill and despair – over the PM’s mom, brother, wife and the judgement of an entire family.”

Lack of judgement.
The PM and his family have no clue about the lives most Canadians live.
But our intellectual elites, including the MSM that keep coating him in Teflon, identify with him. And that’s all that counts in a country where all of the official oppositions have absented themselves from the national scene.

—–

I don’t know.. I read this a lot. Remember, Trudeau and Jagmeet shut down Parliament… So of course there’s no opposition. MSM doesn’t give them much coverage either, but Pollievre and Scheer have let loose some pretty good zingers in the few press conferences they receive. You really need to search out alternative sources to find what the Opposition has to say right now. Liberals sure are a diabolical bunch, and they’re a couple steps ahead of everyone else right now…

#96 Glenn on 07.14.20 at 10:17 pm

‘…Deflation, in fact, is a worse threat. Far scarier. And closer.’

That is simply incorrect. Deflation increases purchasing power for those with a job or money. Deflation lowers the cost of living.

It’s the irrational fear of deflation that has led to our current problems, causing government to bailout every recession and lower rates to ridiculously low levels in pursuit of inflation which had led to all kinds of malinvestment.

By never letting the deadwood burn, all we’ve done is store up bigger fires for the future.

#97 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.14.20 at 10:26 pm

#85 October Forecast on Target for Vaccine on 07.14.20 at 8:49 pm
Moderna says all patients produced neutralizing antibodies in vaccine trial.

Robust immune response in the patients.

Moderna shares soar.

I was thinking W shape recovery but no longer think that. This is V shaped. Its over. March madness was the dip.

The stock market already knows this.
————–
Ok load up on Moderna shares.
Keep us posted.

#98 Nonplused on 07.14.20 at 10:28 pm

Here is an idea: Controlled inflation is a central bank phenomena. Hyper-inflation is a political phenomena. So we will only get hyper-inflation once the politicians take over the printing press and start setting monetary policy. MMT for example might do it. As long as the central banks are in control, they have every interest in maintaining only enough inflation to ward of deflation, least the very thing they produce at a profit (dollars) be destroyed either through too much inflation or a debt collapse. (They don’t actually produce dollars at a profit, but they use the dollars they print to buy bonds and such on which they do earn a profit. Not much profit right now but it is better than a debt collapse in which case they may not get paid back at all.)

#99 Bill on 07.14.20 at 10:33 pm

Trump is not the enemy. The whole news industry is corrupt and has been hijacked by the left.
As a successful business person in BC T2 is the scariest person I’ve ever seen. Zero clue. I don’t need any of the free money from their fire hose. Welcome to communism.

#100 Linda on 07.14.20 at 10:34 pm

#7 ‘Dominoes’ – yes the municipal cutbacks are surely coming. Ditto the increase in property taxes. In our city, the estimated hit from Covid related revenue shortfalls is $300 million by year end; the loss of business tax revenue is estimated to add another $300 million to that shortfall so $600 million altogether. Just to cover the shortfall property taxes will need to be increased 40%. This presumes only residential property taxes are increased, because I can’t see how they can increase business taxes given current circumstances. Not if they want those businesses to continue to exist.

Like a number of cities, municipal workers have already been laid off here. Since recreation facilities & libraries were closed due to Covid, most of the staff in those areas were laid off. Transit use decreased sharply due to people staying home; therefore transit staff were laid off & hours of operation were reduced. Pickup of garbage, recycling & organics was reduced to once every two weeks & due to Covid being detected in a recycling employee suspended for a couple of weeks. However, the fees charged for pickup of garbage etc. did not get reduced in the slightest. Further the closure of libraries & recreation facilities didn’t mean the costs to operate them ended. Reduced, maybe. Ended, no. That is a lot of very expensive infrastructure not being utilized & more importantly from the municipal government standpoint, not generating revenues to offset the cost of running them.

#101 Nonplused on 07.14.20 at 10:38 pm

PS and at the risk of quota here, central banks can “print money from thin air”, but that is a gross simplification of what they are doing. They buy bonds and other financial instruments, usually of the highest quality, which means that every dollar they conjure up is backed by repayment and time value. Thus the new dollars maintain a claim on future goods and services. I think it is only when politicians start printing up money with no solid backing that you get hyper-inflation. That could come in the form of a government defaulting on its debt, but why would any sane central bank lend money to the government if it doesn’t think the debt will be serviced? Only if forced to by the politicians.

#102 n1tro on 07.14.20 at 10:39 pm

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/mobile/you-don-t-need-to-wear-a-mask-while-exercising-at-the-gym-dr-etches-1.5023275

Yahooo! No mask while exercising despite people huffing and puffing after months of getting fat. 🤔

#103 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.14.20 at 10:44 pm

Have you been golfing lately?
Fees have gone up. Pitch and Put is 20 bucks.
And the courses are full.
Restaurants with patios are doing brisk business.
All meals cost about 10% more, so are drinks.
Went to Whistler. Parking in the hotel was $35.
Gas prices are back up to 1.36. Lowest was 87 cents in March.

#104 Dr V on 07.14.20 at 10:49 pm

Ah yes, deflation.

Read an article in a business/economics mag years ago during the GFC. At the time there was also concern about all the “money printing” triggering inflation, even hyperinflation.

Of the several analysts/economists interviewed, one response sticks with me:

“what happens if inflation is triggered?”

answer:

“Well we know how to deal with that”

what they all feared was not deflation per se, but the “deflationary spiral” of falling prices that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as people delay purchases knowing the item will be cheaper in the future.

Extremely hard to reverse. You basically need a war.
Something for the economy to focus on and force
activity.

#105 SoggyShorts on 07.14.20 at 10:54 pm

#73 Gary on 07.14.20 at 7:33 pm
Garth how about a real blog on inflation as it varies for each person or family.
My inflation in the past 12 months
Rent 2.6% (-10%)
Car insurance 7.5
(0%)
Gas 0% (-12%%)
Tenant policy 8% (0%)
Food 8% (10%)
Hydro 5% (0%)
Personal health services 10% (0%/NA)
Really not noticing much difference in clothing as I usually find a discount here and there.
Also I guess I am a lucky one as I got a 2% raise this year.
Most are seeing inflation regardless of what stats Canada says

************************
I added my numbers in bold to your post. The drop in rent and gas covers the increase in food so I’ve got zero or lower inflation out here in AB

#106 Ronaldo on 07.14.20 at 11:37 pm

#81 Wrk.dover on 07.14.20 at 8:26 pm
Wanna see a person going all giddy while receiving more money from charity per minute than I have ever earned in a day from honest work?

well click on this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSv4egteiSE&t=37s
—————————————————————–
OMG

#107 Graeme on 07.15.20 at 12:05 am

“Stagflation”– Low growth due to the carrying cost of debt, government, increasing taxes and deadbeats on UBI. High inflation due to easy money (to gnaw at the debt and finance the aforementioned) but also now supply side disruptions in trade wars, covid, unrest and who knows what next! This could go on for years until we right the ship I think.. and ultra low rates are part and parcel with this scenario as they try to keep the service cost of debt low basically forever. Oh and without accurate pricing of risk (in rates) expect more financial accidents along the way. Happy fun times! Set-it-and-forget it passive investing has to be pooched going forward no???

#108 Gregor Samsa on 07.15.20 at 1:26 am

Canada is quickly becoming a country where everyone is on the take from the government. When you count up federal, provincial, municipal, education, and health jobs, you have a massive % of the population directly working off taxpayer funds. Public sector unions have gotten so powerful that there are no standards anymore and soft corruption (everyone milking the system and barely working) is rampant. Any government that dares to cut faces their wrath become demons (think Kenny and Ford).

Then you have the masses on CREB. Maybe the media will discuss this? Oh right, they are in on the take too. Then you have all the construction jobs, jobs grants, diversification efforts, etc. I was discussing with a friend who runs a medium size company and he says all they are doing at the moment is gaming the system to take advantage of as much government money as possible under various “programs” (because all other income has dried up). Think about that and it should scare you.

I think Garth and most here are underplaying how bad things could get in Canada, and how fast.

#109 Howard on 07.15.20 at 4:46 am

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2020/07/toronto-rent-prices-just-dropped-again-fourth-month-row/

The freshly-released July 2020 National Rent Report from rentals.ca and Bullpen Research & Consulting puts the average monthly price of a one-bedroom apartment in Toronto at just $2,063 — down 9.3 per cent, year over year, and 1.9 per cent from the month previous.

Two-bedroom rents, meanwhile, fell 4.4 per cent over the past year but actually increased month over month by 1.3 per cent to hit an average of $2,684 in the city.

#110 Howard on 07.15.20 at 4:57 am

#62 Keith in Rio on 07.14.20 at 6:52 pm
Chris,

If you are reading the replies here, consider what I and thousands of others Canadians have done.

We sold everything, and LEFT PERMANENTLY, for a much warmer and more hospitable country, with a cost of living 1/4 that of Kanaduh.

Central America or South America are two great choices.

———————————-

I agree, but I don’t I’d choose Brazil. I think Uruguay or even Colombia (Medellin in particular) would be better choices.

#111 Howard on 07.15.20 at 6:17 am

On February 17, 2011, Justin Trudeau tweeted that Bev Oda should resign over a $16 glass of orange juice.

https://twitter.com/justintrudeau/status/38301757515763712?lang=en

#112 akashic record on 07.15.20 at 7:47 am

#85 October Forecast on Target for Vaccine

You may have missed the research that the antibody of previously infected patients disappeared in 2-3 months.

#113 Steven Rowlandson on 07.15.20 at 7:52 am

Hyperinflation happens when there is too much currency created through too much debt creation of all types especially government debt.. Creation of debt is the sole means for creating currency and credit in this world since a pure gold and silver money system was repudiated in the 19th and 20th centuries. To cover their butts the politicians and bankers have blamed inflation on the butcher, the baker and the candle stick maker instead of the true culprits which happen to be themselves. The truth hurts doesn’t it Garth.

Not when you understand politicians are chosen by citizens – and usually succumb to their desires. This is how public budgets are destroyed, because of the financial illiteracy of the electorate. Yes, that hurts. – Garth

#114 Dominoes Lining Up on 07.15.20 at 7:58 am

#100 Linda

Thanks for the feedback about your city. It does seem that cities are the next thing that may crumble, unless higher governments stop delaying. Hard to imagine they won’t do something, given how many Canadians are urban now, but the deadline has already passed as you noted, with services cut and layoffs mounting.

In Toronto, there was acctually a boost in land transfer tax revenues in the first quarter due to an up market, briefly. But now they are forecasting a loss of $249 million in land transfer tax revenues just for 2020. Probably much worse afterwards when prices drop.

Sadly, the mayor and council there have been spineless about recognizing this. Three years ago they were warned by city managers that the city was deferring important budget decisions because of their addiction to the land transfer tax revenues during the real estate bubble, giving them the illusion they could just carry on spending on that virtual credit card.

Hopefully after the coming crash the voters there will get rid of Tory and his reckless supporters on council and have a stabilizing fiscal reality check.

But that won’t stop the enormous pain that appears to be on the horizon for larger cities everywhere, starting with the GTA. A real estate/condo crash seems inevitable.

#115 David Hawke on 07.15.20 at 8:41 am

TurnerNation #88 truer words were never spoken!

#62 Keith in Rio on 07.14.20 at 6:52 pm
Chris,

If you are reading the replies here, consider what I and thousands of others Canadians have done.

We sold everything, and LEFT PERMANENTLY, for a much warmer and more hospitable country, with a cost of living 1/4 that of Kanaduh.

Central America or South America are two great choices.

Spot-on! I’m also living the dream in the tropics. :)

#116 Redskin Name Change on 07.15.20 at 8:46 am

The new Washington Redskins name and logo will be announced shortly. It is rumored to honour both the military and Native Americans.

$10 bucks sez that once it’s announced it will be met by massive cries of offence and racism anyway.

Because that’s how the Wokesters roll.

#117 NSNG on 07.15.20 at 8:55 am

We do have a war to fight, Garth.

It’s a war on prosperity.

AND WE’RE WINNING!

General Justin will lead us to victory!

#118 Jager on 07.15.20 at 9:07 am

It is common knowledge that most governments are unofficially insolvent when off balance sheet (unfunded) liabilities are noted in the calculus.

Both public and private debt are enormous. From this record levels of insolvencies are to be expected.

My concern for the markets in the near term (12 months) is another Bear Sterns moment. i.e. a bank with global ties sinking and severely shaking world markets.

Further, interest rate suppression by CB’s could likely end in a shock and awe scenario.

Keep your eyes on the canary in the coal mine…

False worry. This is not a credit crisis. It’s a pandemic. Will pass. – Garth

#119 Do we have all the facts on 07.15.20 at 9:15 am

I am waiting to see if the Bank of Canada will shift their focus from stabilizing the financial markets through the purchase of short term assets such as Treasury bills and Canada bonds with a 3 year term or lower to the purchase of assets with a term of 5 years or longer in the secondary market with the objective of stimulating economic growth.

Between February and July 2020 the Bank of Canada increased their holdings of short term assets by $350 billion to assure that the 115 member institutions had the funds necessary for normal operations. This was referred to by the Bank of Canada as “large scale asset purchases”

In order to generate the funds necessary to stimulate growth of the Canadian economy the Bank of Canada could begin to increase their purchases of assets with a term of 5 years or higher.

The interest rate of Canadian bonds with a term of 5 years or longer is closely tied to the international market. At present interest rates are below 1.0% per annum but it remains to be seen what might happen to bond rates as the competition for the financing of economic recovery around the world shakes out.

When the Bank of Canada buys a long term bond in the secondary market through an increase in the money supply there is no guarantee that the purchase will actually stimulate economic growth within Canada.

To those not that familiar with monetary policy it would seem far more logical for Canada to raise the capital necessary for stimulation of the Canadian economy through an increase in the sale of Canadian bonds to external buyers in the primary market.

I would interpret the printing of money by the Bank of Canada to purchase assets in the secondary market as a sign that the overall demand for Canadian bonds might be weakening.

Would this assumption be wrong?

#120 TurnerNation on 07.15.20 at 9:17 am

Here it comes. And this is not only here it is global. Now you know the reason of this global reset/plandemic (as some wags quip)
It is forced poverty and communism and UBI.

Thing thing with the New System is, always more sacrifices are demanded. And you are in the line of pyre.
You might have given up your business after the global government shut you down; given us your travel rights; your rights to assembly; your lifestyle you worked hard for; your career might be permanently gone if you work in certain industries. You were forced to raise children at home, under house arrest. NOT good enough!
The New System demands even more: the new signs say “Do your part; wear a mask”. So now you give up your freedom to breathe freely? Unclean unclean.
As the spraypaintedp psy-ops sign on Queen W in TO say: “I Can’t breathe”. Welcome to the New System; a global boot on your throat at all times.

“The federal government should consider creating a guaranteed basic income, reforming the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and restoring Parliamentary oversight of spending to combat the economic effects of the Covid-19 outbreak, a Senate committee report says.”

#121 JB on 07.15.20 at 9:19 am

#24 Howard on 07.14.20 at 4:52 pm

Condo rental listings still piling up in Toronto. 5800 up for rent downtown as per Condosca. In late May it was 3900.

Negative cash-flow landlords must be anxiously counting the days until the return of students in August/September, but the usual flood of students will likely be a mere trickle this year. Most university courses will be offered online, with only science and engineering students required to be on campus for the lab component of their programmes.
…………………………………………………………………….
A real estate condo crash seems inevitable for sure. Too many, too many get rich quick schemes and now the suburban flight out of the city proper. Who wants to purchase a Condo when you are essentially one of the few owners that actually lives there. Renters will not take care of the building in the same way or care about your rights as an owner. Might as well just rent with the rest of them!
I’m hearing that homelessness and hooliganism (random fights, violence) have spiked in downtown Toronto. Garth’s prediction of a flight to the affluent suburbs over the next few years seems increasingly likely.

#122 NSNG on 07.15.20 at 9:21 am

DELETED

#123 JB on 07.15.20 at 9:22 am

#111 Howard on 07.15.20 at 6:17 am

On February 17, 2011, Justin Trudeau tweeted that Bev Oda should resign over a $16 glass of orange juice.

https://twitter.com/justintrudeau/status/38301757515763712?lang=en
…………………………………………………………………..
What? Now who is calling the kettle black? Oh it make sense Mr Socks of course.

#124 Dharma Bum on 07.15.20 at 9:27 am

Drove up to the Bruce peninsula a couple of days ago. All the little motels along the way, and the small resort style joints up north were FULL.
Tons of cars parked out front.
This was Monday and Tuesday.
Cottaging is BACK!

Buh-Bye, staythehellaway guy!

#125 ain't life rand on 07.15.20 at 9:31 am

@#112 akashic record on 07.15.20 at 7:47 am
#85 October Forecast on Target for Vaccine

You may have missed the research that the antibody of previously infected patients disappeared in 2-3 months.

Dr. Isaac Bogoch says the idea one can be infected with COVID-19 twice is hype that has not been seen in any study.

#126 YouKnowWho on 07.15.20 at 10:02 am

#88 TurnerNation

It appears I’m up to 4 fans,

—-

Now the pressure is on to really deliver!

#127 IHCTD9 on 07.15.20 at 10:04 am

#103 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.14.20 at 10:44 pm
Have you been golfing lately?
Fees have gone up. Pitch and Put is 20 bucks.
And the courses are full.
Restaurants with patios are doing brisk business.
All meals cost about 10% more, so are drinks.
Went to Whistler. Parking in the hotel was $35.
Gas prices are back up to 1.36. Lowest was 87 cents in March.
— —

Ponzie, you must be rich to be able to afford living in BC.

Gas is a buck here right now, lowest was mid .60’s.

What’s your hydro bill like?

#128 Dr V on 07.15.20 at 10:10 am

96 Glenn – the problem is wages g et dragged down with prices either by job loss due to lowered demand, reduced hours, or reduced business revenue.

Even savings are threatened as debt is not repaid.

The concern is not irrational.

#129 BillyBob on 07.15.20 at 10:24 am

LOL MF and his ilk getting’ testy at the expats. Things MUST be getting back to normal. Stubborn narrowmind hats…ON!

=========

“My job has taken me all over the world. After you’ve visited enough countries you realize that there are very few countries as good as Canada.

Believe me the grass is always greener…..

South America really dude ????????????”

==

It takes a special kind of stupid to consider South America as one singular place.

Or to think that because Canada is a great country it must be the best for everyone.

lol

#130 BillyBob on 07.15.20 at 10:32 am

#17 Lambchop on 07.14.20 at 4:29 pm

Sometimes I swear, you only read half the words and infer the rest. I’m not paying cash with no receipt, it’s not under the table. These are not zombie companies, just local businesses.
If you pay a retailer with a credit card, they have to pay Visa or Mastercard 5% of the transaction, for the privilege. American Express is 10%!
Debit costs the retailer 2.5%.

Cash costs them nothing, so when I pay my legitimate, on the books, tax included, reportable and traceable invoice, the business gets 100% of the invoice, rather than giving over a percentage to a bank or credit card company.

Learn to read words, and deduce their meanings with logic, not inference. Get a dictionary if necessary.

==========================================

I’m sorry you experienced trauma re: your co-worker and I completely agree with your approach to cash to save a business the card merchant fees.

Unfortunately you’re undermining your argument a bit in the details: those percentages you quoted are much higher than in reality. There’s no way any merchant could stay in business if they had to cut a credit card company 5 or 10% of every transaction. More like .5 – 3% for Visa and M/C, higher for Amex. Massive companies like Walmart and Costco negotiate the better rates. Debit is even less I believe. Also it should be noted that cash is not cost-neutral to businesses in their handling of it and the increased theft risks.

Still, your point stands as to the rapacious fees. People love to defend their use of credit cards because “why not, it’s free, and I get points!”.

It’s not free. The fees are passed along one way or another.

#131 akashic record on 07.15.20 at 10:57 am

Not when you understand politicians are chosen by citizens – and usually succumb to their desires. This is how public budgets are destroyed, because of the financial illiteracy of the electorate. Yes, that hurts. – Garth

Is it the financial illiteracy of the public that made the income growth of the electorate depressed for over how long now? Who’s desire is satisfied by stagnant wages?

#132 MF on 07.15.20 at 11:08 am

129 BillyBob on 07.15.20 at 10:24 am

Narrow minded?

Actually the complete opposite. It takes a good worldview to be positive, and to not complain and blame the country for your own personal failures. Narrow minded people are not positive.

You’ve got it wrong.

MF

#133 looking up on 07.15.20 at 11:12 am

#129 BillyBob on 07.15.20 at 10:24 am
LOL MF and his ilk getting’ testy at the expats. Things MUST be getting back to normal. Stubborn narrowmind hats…ON!

=========

“My job has taken me all over the world. After you’ve visited enough countries you realize that there are very few countries as good as Canada.

Believe me the grass is always greener…..

South America really dude ????????????”

==

It takes a special kind of stupid to consider South America as one singular place.

Or to think that because Canada is a great country it must be the best for everyone.

lol

—————

Been to South America many times. Not all of it but enough of it. If by great place you mean somewhere where girls are hitting on you all the time because they want to escape to anywhere else (and yes they have great food as well) then you’re correct. Other than that no reason whatsoever to go live there.

I’m guessing you’re not living there because you we’re laid off from NASA lol.

#134 LOL on 07.15.20 at 11:23 am

@#129 BillyBob on 07.15.20 at 10:24 am
LOL MF and his ilk getting’ testy at the expats. Things MUST be getting back to normal. Stubborn narrowmind hats…ON!

=========

“My job has taken me all over the world. After you’ve visited enough countries you realize that there are very few countries as good as Canada.

Believe me the grass is always greener…..

South America really dude ????????????”

==

It takes a special kind of stupid to consider South America as one singular place.

Or to think that because Canada is a great country it must be the best for everyone.

lol
//////

takes a special kind of stupid to argue and belittle each other like children, over the internet. all. damn. day.
lmao. you crusty old buggers.

#135 Editrix on 07.15.20 at 11:57 am

With the coming tax grabs, don’t be surprised if there will be a capital gains tax on a primary residence.

#136 Looking up on 07.15.20 at 12:01 pm

#134 Lol
takes a special kind of stupid to argue and belittle each other like children, over the internet. all. damn. day.
lmao. you crusty old buggers.

—————-

Touché Lol

#137 Yukon Elvis on 07.15.20 at 12:22 pm

#133 looking up on 07.15.20 at 11:12 am

Been to South America many times. Not all of it but enough of it. If by great place you mean somewhere where girls are hitting on you all the time because they want to escape to anywhere else (and yes they have great food as well) then you’re correct.
…………………………………..

It’s called living the dream. Do u have any recommendations ?

#138 P.Ooched on 07.15.20 at 12:39 pm

#48 What’s the point on 07.14.20 at 5:59 pm

> Guelph, which I don’t even think is part of the GTA,

– Guelph – its part of ‘The ‘New GTA'(TNGTA) which will keep expanding due to ripple effect

– the ripple effect ] your ‘not great TO house’ sells for 1.5M, ] you buy a better house for 1M in Oshawa,Oshawa house prices rise ] Oshawa owner buys a better house in Peterbororo for 750, Petorboro prices rise ] Peterboro owner buys a better house in Belleville for 600K Belleville prices rise, ] …

– Congratulations Cornwall, your now part of TNGTA

#139 Looking up on 07.15.20 at 12:42 pm

#133 Yukon Elvis

I knew I nuked my argument when I mentioned “girls hitting on you”

Brazil and Columbia make you feel like Brad Pitt for a day but of course it’s not real.

Lol

#140 P.Ooched on 07.15.20 at 1:05 pm

#48 What’s the point on 07.14.20 at 5:59 pm

> Maybe I should cash out. . .but where to go.

Maybe, what do you mean maybe?

There’s tens of small cities across this fine land where you can still buy a ‘not that great house’ for likely in the ballpark of what you paid for your ‘not that great house in Guelph 10 or more years ago

None of them are in the GTA, the GVA, TNGTA or TNGVA

Invest that half a million you will pocket on your RE swap in a balanced/diversified portfolio and you should be pulling down 35k income annually before you even get out of bed in the AM to turn on the coffee pot

Better yet, rent a place in your new non GTA locale and bump up your investment portfolio a couple more notches and you can ring your landlord when the hot water tank starts leaking, instead of heading out to Home depot and breaking out your toolbox

You’ll be living large in , the talk of the coffee shop …

#141 Penny Henny on 07.15.20 at 1:13 pm

#138 Penny Henny on 07.15.20 at 1:11 pm
#137 Yukon Elvis on 07.15.20 at 12:22 pm
#133 looking up on 07.15.20 at 11:12 am

Been to South America many times. Not all of it but enough of it. If by great place you mean somewhere where girls are hitting on you all the time because they want to escape to anywhere else (and yes they have great food as well) then you’re correct.
…………………………………..

It’s called living the dream. Do u have any recommendations ?
//////////

WELLAND!

////////////

Every time I ask someone how they’re doin the all say
“you know, just living the dream”

#142 jess on 07.15.20 at 1:29 pm

devaluation of currencies “galloping devaluation” would be bad
https://finbenefit.com/define-devaluation.html
===================
who pays ….does this not drive up rates….> inflation
Violation Tracker Industry Summary Page
Industry:
financial services
Penalty Total since 2000:
$323,889,987,491
Number of Records:
5,839

https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/jpmorgan-chase

rigging 2015

Rigging of Foreign Exchange Market Makes
http://www.latimes.com › business › la-fi-banks-criminal-fine…
May 20, 2015 – … into the manipulation of currency markets, announced a $5.7-billion settlement that included rare criminal charges against five global banks, …

#143 JB on 07.15.20 at 1:54 pm

#88 TurnerNation on 07.14.20 at 9:12 pm

#38 YouKnowWho it appears I’m up to 4 fans, shy of Smoking man’s record. Miss Q107’s Psychedelic Sundays. ( This is a boomer music blog afterall.)
Life is funny sometimes, heading back from Bymark patio this week I found myself smiling. All I had to do was say to myself: We are living the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on mankind.
The sense is nothing we’ve seen before.
………………………………………………………………
Does that mean you are or are not wearing a mask? Either way I’m OK with you wearing or not wearing :)

#144 Felix on 07.15.20 at 2:06 pm

Morbidly obese mutts are just dogawful.

#145 Lambchop on 07.15.20 at 3:39 pm

#130 BillyBob on 07.15.20 at 10:32 am

I’m sorry you experienced trauma re: your co-worker and I completely agree with your approach to cash to save a business the card merchant fees.

Unfortunately you’re undermining your argument a bit in the details: those percentages you quoted are much higher than in reality. There’s no way any merchant could stay in business if they had to cut a credit card company 5 or 10% of every transaction. More like .5 – 3% for Visa and M/C, higher for Amex. Massive companies like Walmart and Costco negotiate the better rates. Debit is even less I believe. Also it should be noted that cash is not cost-neutral to businesses in their handling of it and the increased theft risks.

Still, your point stands as to the rapacious fees. People love to defend their use of credit cards because “why not, it’s free, and I get points!”.

It’s not free. The fees are passed along one way or another

____________

I realize my numbers were incorrect, my fault for not checking first and going with what used to be the norm.
Not everyone needs to have a cut of every transaction I make, bad enough that the gov’t has their sticky little digits everywhere.
Anyway, thanks for being reasonable.

#146 The West on 07.15.20 at 3:40 pm

No new post today – did the commies send you to the gulag for posting against dear leader???

#147 Jeff on 07.15.20 at 3:59 pm

Personally, I am losing confidence in cash or bonds. Cash is trash those days. I do not expect hyperinflation, but high inflation is very likely imo. I would not be surprised to see 8-10% inflation per year after 2022 (once economy really restart).

#148 Chris on 07.15.20 at 5:24 pm

Thank you Garth!