The thin line

So Trump wore a mask. True, he was touring a hospital. But it still happened. Could be a turning point, and a wise political move. Mr. Market will like it.

The virus is romping in the Sunbelt, ripping through red states the prez needs to be re-elected. (More on that from an eyewitness blog dog below.) The strategy of ignoring Covid and focusing on reopening was incorrect, evidently. Daily cases have been rising rapidly (over 15,000 yesterday in Florida) and deaths have started to increase. By turning a blind eye, Trump looks callous when folks are fearful. By donning a mask, he appears concerned. Strong leaders can also be empathetic. A lesson worth learning.

Well, this allows financial assets to continue their ascent. The pandemic will pass. Life will go on. Companies will make money and the public health emergency will be contained if Americans do what we did. Trump is signalling that may happen.

Here’s where we are: from the terrified lows of late March, the S&P 500 has rocketed higher by 45%. Astonishing. The one-year gain is currently 8% – which means if you went to sleep last summer and woke up now, rubbing your chin and saying ‘Huh? What virus?,’ you’d be pleasantly surprised at your portfolio growth. The index sits just a few percentage points below the all-time peak achieved last winter, pre-crisis.

What now?

It gets better, that’s what. The next corporate earnings season kicks off this week as about three dozen big American companies report. The numbers will be awful. Down 40% or so from year-ago levels. That will spike the earnings-per-share to an elevated level,  suggesting stocks are overvalued. But Mr. Market will love it.

That’s because the bottom will be in. Q2, 2020, will go down in history as the Covid quarter, that period of time when Depression-era GDP shrinkage and jobless inflation took place in the wake of a 30% stock market plunge. But it’s over. Because markets are forward-looking investors will be intent on what the second half of the year and 2021 hold in store. Expected earnings growth will bring that P/E right back to historic norms, likely allowing even higher valuations.

   Despite what’s happening in Florida, Arizona, parts of California and Texas, the US economy has rebounded, based on consumer spending. That, after all, accounts for about 70% of all American economic activity. Home sales have jumped dramatically, commodity prices have restored (oil has gone from negative $37 to plus $40) and this pace will continue, even if Covid slams into the southern states. Even if Trump tumbles in November.

     Meanwhile the Nasdaq is at record levels, Bay Street is up 40% from March and Canadian bank stocks – harbingers of the wider economy – have jumped 30%. Our nation has suffered over 8,000 virus-related deaths, but stands in excellent shape now for a broad and meaningful reopening of all sectors of society as the year grinds on. Just keep washing your hands and shunning sneezy people.

Now, let’s go to Texas, and an update from Chris. This is interesting:

I live in Houston and read your blog more often than I probably should.  Nonetheless, I’m always back for more every couple of days : ) I’ve noticed over the last couple of months that many people have been using the small percentage of the population that has been affected by COVID 19 to question whether social distancing and the related economic consequences are really worthwhile. When I run the numbers for Harris County (the county containing Houston) and compare them to Canada the following is what I see.

Approximately 0.8% of the Harris County population has tested positive for COVID 19 and approximately 0.5% of the population is still currently positive (not recovered yet). In Canada, approximately 0.3% of the population have tested positive and 0.1% are currently positive (not recovered yet).

At first blush, all of these numbers are very small.  But if you block out the politicians and actually listen to the people running the hospitals, you realize that the slightly less small numbers in Houston are big enough to have people in the know worried that all available surge capacity ICU beds in Houston will be full in the next 2 to 3 weeks if nothing changes….. and that’s not considering their bigger problem, which is whether or not they can find anyone to staff the extra beds.

At the same time, in Canada, it sounds like a number of hospitals are underutilized…… not much happening because there aren’t that many COVID 19 cases (relatively speaking), and people who don’t have COVID are avoiding the hospital unless they absolutely need to be there.

Two vastly different situations separated by a few tenths of a percent.

Obviously, this is a very simplistic and flawed comparison… the testing rate in Houston vs Canada has been ignored for example, as has the number of ICU beds per 100,000 and demographic data.  All of these, and many other factors could significantly affect the comparison, but at a high level, it seems reasonable to conclude that only a very small portion of a population needs to be COVID 19 positive before hospitals are in danger of being overrun.

Why bother you with this?

Firstly, I’ve had a front row seat to the sideshow down here and have watched a governor squander an opportunity to reopen the economy with proper safeguards in place due to political pressure, while many individual citizens seem to be unable to look past their own constitutional rights to make an effort for the common good (and their own collective economic wellbeing).  Sadly, “United we stand” appears to be an antiquated sentiment.

Secondly, I’m worried that a lot of people look at headlines from Texas and Florida and get the impression from the media that the portion of the COVID 19 positive population in those places is significantly larger than that of the place where they live.  The reality is that they’re only a few tenths of a percentage point apart, and this fine line is something that is worth keeping in mind.

Finally, I have the feeling that the current lack of catastrophe in Canada will start to turn sentiment against social distancing, mask wearing, etc. as things drag on, and I’m hearing anecdotal evidence that that may already have started.  The economy definitely needs to reopen, hopefully sooner than later, but the Texas example has shown that if the proper safeguards aren’t in place as the economy reopens, and more importantly, if citizens don’t actively support these safeguards, you can pretty quickly end up in a place that is much worse than where you started.  Hopefully Canadians can learn from mistakes made South of the border and keep the puck on the right side of the blue line.

My apologies if this is way too far off Greater Fool topic to be of interest.

Assuming you made it this far without falling asleep, I just wanted to say thanks for sticking with the blog, despite your frustrations.  Hopefully if it ever gets to the point where you are actually going to shut it down, you might consider just shutting down the comments and enjoy writing the blog?  Not as interactive as the current model, but probably better for the blood pressure… and you would still be reaching people.

 

173 comments ↓

#1 Cliff on 07.12.20 at 12:31 pm

I too kept running the numbers and wondering why such a monstrous reaction to something that seems so miniscule on a population wide basis. I agree that the health care system just wasn’t ready for it and that’s why they had to slow things down. In BC we appear to have gotten ahead of the curve but we went to draconian measures to get beds from mainstream to do so – and then didn’t need them. We are also now seeing people behave like it never happened. Another wave coming?

#2 TurnerNation on 07.12.20 at 12:35 pm

What could 2021 bring?
Fact: The World Economic Forum is openly planning a reset. I’ll post the concrete words from their web site. (WE forum. Like WE Charity and ‘WE are all in this together’. Brilliant global marketing)

My opinion is that the lockdowns must continue well into 2021 to keep us beaten down.
It was a masterful rollout globally: communities destroyed with snitches and vandalized cars.
Families, friends lost over beliefs in the new CV religion. Yesterday I saw a young guy wearing a full face mask respirator like you’d use in an industrial spray paint booth. Game set and match. It’s over.
Open air prison lineups with people standing masked muzzled and silent, 6-6-6 apart awaiting their rationed goods. Wait until the bitter cold hits. Those lineups will be like death marches. History repeats.
Totally dependent upon the big box stores allowed open. If you wanted total global control could you think of a better method?

Animals are training using fear: sheep herding dogs bite. Electric fences and prods. Shock collars and invisible fences.
Humans are trained using fear: virtual border walls. Shocking “news” articles on their smart phones. (Covid toes anyone? )
Fear of bylaw fines and business being shut down.
The online cancel culture, #metoo campaigns? Fear – to keep us in line.

Notice the laws your town or city is passing overnight are all global laws. Same as everywhere else. There’s no local representation. This weblog even laments the lack of opposition parties. So obvious…but many still cling to the Old System.
Again my take is that in September- Harvest season – once handouts cease the bankers will be harvesting our assets.
We were taken over and dismantled from the inside.

To the facts – read their plan if you dare:

https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/

“As we enter a unique window of opportunity to shape the recovery, this initiative will offer insights to help inform all those determining the future state of global relations, the direction of national economies, the priorities of societies, the nature of business models and the management of a global commons. Drawing from the vision and vast expertise of the leaders engaged across the Forum’s communities, the Great Reset initiative has a set of dimensions to build a new social contract that honours the dignity of every human being”

#3 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.12.20 at 12:39 pm

Alas, even Garth has succumbed. This is now a fearmongering virus blog.

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.12.20 at 12:41 pm

Interesting observations from Texas.
Just a few percentage points between “we’re handling it” to “We’re overwhelmed”….

Doesnt take much to fill the intensive care unit of a hospital.

#5 TurnerNation on 07.12.20 at 12:53 pm

Get ready for Christmastime guys. Your family Zoom holiday dinner. (Wave to Grandfather – still locked down in the old folks home. Thank you for your service in WW2 gramps!).
Schools will select a few children to deliver heartfelt renderings of traditional carols via streaming online. Their voices softly echoing off their living room walls. Such merriment and cheer.
Loving the new normal. A disease so deadly you don’t know you have it until you get tested.

#6 Kevin on 07.12.20 at 12:58 pm

“Hopefully if it ever gets to the point where you are actually going to shut it down, you might consider just shutting down the comments and enjoy writing the blog? Not as interactive as the current model, but probably better for the blood pressure… and you would still be reaching people.”

Seconded! Thanks Chris for the write up.

#7 Sail Away on 07.12.20 at 1:02 pm

Nice to have Chris’s take. That’s what I’m hearing from friends and family in the states as well.

No cause to light any hair on fire.

#8 Looking up on 07.12.20 at 1:06 pm

#2 TurnerNation on 07.12.20 at 12:35 pm

————-

If I may make a suggestion, take all the money you’ve been spending on meth and put it into low cost diversified etf’s and you’ll be just fine. Clearly you’ve been using illicit narcotics when you write your posts.

#9 Faron on 07.12.20 at 1:10 pm

#174 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.12.20 at 12:20 pm
#171 Faron on 07.12.20 at 11:42 am
#162 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.12.20 at 10:37 am
#148 Doug Rowat on 07.12.20 at 9:10 am
#140 Future Expatriate on 07.12.20 at 12:03 am

“Sure, they locked it down quickly and that avoided a real disaster, and a real hit to the economy. Of course, even during WWII there was “some” economy in Germany.”

Ponz, we agree for the most part and we are probably equally appalled by the situation in the US right now. The salient point of Doug’s is confirmed in your above statement though. There was an economy in WWII and what followed WWII (in the US anyway) was an insanely strong period of econ expansion. This will happen again after COVID. The less COVID is ignored, the faster it will happen.

“Stop nitpicking.”

I can’t. That would be akin to asking a shark to stop swimming.

#10 UmiouiuS on 07.12.20 at 1:10 pm

Garth,
to-day’s post sent me scurrying to check the calendar and review some of the stats.

I thought that maybe I’d done the Van Winkle. But no, the 2nd Q Numbers aren’t out yet.

Do much love your sudden burst of enthusiasm ..

maybe its ’cause Trump Don-ned a mask, finally?

Or that you got hold of some hydroxychloroquine?

Regardless, a nice jolt of optimism, .. but, but, but, .. surely I won’t be the only one playing ‘straight man’.

I wrote: “The next corporate earnings season kicks off this week as about three dozen big American companies report.” Don’t be a dick. – Garth

#11 Steven Nicolle on 07.12.20 at 1:12 pm

Good post and great stuff from guy in Houston. I think before like he says people start to backlash we should get to phase 3 and quickly. We have flattened the curve here well. Waiting for Ontario to get to under 100 cases (129 today ) is going to take forever. What are they not telling us? My wife is waiting to get back to work but without a job in restaurant industry because no Phase 3 yet they gotta start opening and trust the people. Are they waiting for schools to reopen, what gives? We have 14 million people who live here and 120 new cases. That is .00085 % or 8000 of 1%. I mean we can stay closed till their is a vaccine and pay us $2000 a month if they want but my wife wants to work and my son cannot get a job. It is time to open now. Europe opened up to us but no flights are coming here because of 2 week quarantine so my wife couldn’t go to sister’s wedding. Everyone gets tested upon arrival in Iceland. Not stopping tourists from arriving. So rather than do the same here people have to quarantine upon arrival for two weeks. So forget tourism here this summer which might have helped the tourist sector. Oh well we got hockey hub cities as mayor says to promote Toronto for some other time. What a mess!

#12 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.12.20 at 1:18 pm

Here is a question I haven’t heard anyone address yet. Do life insurance policies have a clause whereby they don’t have to pay out in the event of death resulting from a pandemic, just like they don’t have to pay out for deaths that result from acts of war or terrorism?
That could be another reason that they’re pushing so hard to have all deaths classified as being Covid deaths.

#13 Rocky Mountain on 07.12.20 at 1:39 pm

It really amazes me how few cases there are in BC considering how fast the economy is opening up.
Almost all small businesses seem to be open in north shore. Saw barber shop with people without masks etc.
Obviously it does give a sense of having defeated the Virus for now. If you have been hiking, shopping or at the beach, you will notice nobody is following social distancing, old and young alike.
What did we do different to be so successful at containing the virus?
Also I am starting to believe the real estate will do just fine and there will be no correction in BC. Just look at the job numbers. By the time 1 year mortgage holiday is finished, BC’s economy would have mostly restored. If we do equally well with the second wave ofcourse.

#14 Alex on 07.12.20 at 1:41 pm

I think social distancing should be advised/enforced more vs wearing masks for several reasons:
1. Too many people wear surgical masks that do not provide adequate level of protection (some manufacturers even state “no protection vs covid”on the packaging but somehow that does not get enough attention)
2. People in generally did not receive proper instructions on how to put, wear and discard masks. I’ve seen way too many people putting the same mask on and off using their hands. Some had gloves on and the ones I talked to were under impression that gloves protect them and wearing them they can do whatever they like, including touching the mask.
And for God’s sake, if you wear gloves in the store, take them off after unloading groceries in your car; they collect pathogens same as dirty hands so please do not grab your food, cellphone etc. with those gloves, as seen way to many times
3. Taking 1. and 2. into consideration a lot of people tend not to keep adequate social distance wearing protection that they think was designed to protect them, and it fact it does not. Unless the goal is let us make everyone feel safe, but feel only.
I am NOT saying “do not wear masks”, quite the opposite, but maintain social distancing and get a proper mask. This where the government should step up and EDUCATE people!
Garth, I apologize for being off the topic, but all in best intention. Thank you for your blogs

#15 604sam on 07.12.20 at 1:41 pm

Another vote for burning down the toxic comments section here, and salting the earth, so nothing could ever grow again.

Or maybe require that people create a profile before posting, and that their profile pic must be of their dog. And if they don’t own a dog, they are not allowed to post.

#16 McSteve on 07.12.20 at 1:47 pm

Turner Nation:

Or maybe, just maybe, it’s a health crisis worth paying attention to. I don’t see boogiemen everywhere. If I have to wear a mask to run and and out to get beer, groceries, etc. Who cares? I avoid the mall like the plague anyway. Anything I want comes to my door in a box. Awesome.

If there is a reset coming, it’s not planned. It would seem we are bumping up against natural limits on the carrying capacity of our planet, the amount of debt we can take on as individuals and as a society. If you feel like a prisoner, it’s because you are a prisoner of your mind. I’m having a beer in my backyard after a roadbike ride in the country. Life is good.

#17 DON on 07.12.20 at 1:47 pm

It makes perfect sense to keep social distancing in place for a while longer in the best interest of the common good while opening up the full economy.

Older folks and those with underlying medical conditions should take precautions and the rest of us need to respect those boundaries.

In BC the social distancing is fading a bit…it is summer and people want their summer. But wait till October flu season. Then the nasty looks will surge back.

Why is it so hard to abide by social distancing practices. I prefer that most humans stay at least 6 feet (or more) from me in the best of times.

I will do my part to keep others safe…no big deal. I do not consider this an erosion of my individual rights…it is a temporary measure…one that is likely to be invoked to deal with the next virus. There is a line in the sand though.

As for Trump to get reelected…he needs to show a certain amount of concern for both the economy and the people. Not sure what his political strategists are doing or why he is not listening to them – maybe they have been fired. Trump wearing a mask may be a turning point in his strategy. Most often the election is won in the final few weeks…when everybody starts paying attention Trump knows this. It is how he got elected. Looks like he is ramping up.

As for Trudeau…WE….charity??? Boldness or blind stupidity?

#18 Keith on 07.12.20 at 1:50 pm

The pandemic in B.C. has been so well handled, Dr. Bonnie Henry has been written up in the New York Times. This despite a highly active youth demographic, plenty of retirees, and Vancouver airport being a major gateway to China.

I live in the real world. We went to the island to visit my mother for her birthday. The repeated announcement at the ferry terminal was all passengers over the age of two were required, to wear a mask. Inside the ferry, I would guess compliance was roughly 50% amongst staff and passengers, with no enforcement.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, I’ve shopped grocery stores, played golf and socialized. Strict compliance with the guidelines? In a word, no. As an ex retailer I’m amazed that Covid 19 didn’t rip through the retail industry with unmasked customers walking all over the place.

I don’t know if anyone really knows what’s going with this virus – the scary stories out there are truly scary, and compliance for me is not a problem. I am lucky to not be affected economically nor in my family or circle of friends. We continue to live in interesting times.

#19 Mark on 07.12.20 at 1:54 pm

Astonishing the market bounced so quick? Really? The fed pumped trillions of fake money into it. Even that wasn’t astonishing. It’s become the norm.

What’s fake money? – Garth

#20 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.12.20 at 1:55 pm

There is a reason that they made sure that people were told that the elderly are the most at risk. With the next wave or the next ‘virus’ they’ll say “we did it wrong last time, so this time we need to round-up and isolate the 65+ crowd and let the rest get on with their lives”. People will think this is a great idea (they get to keep working, etc) , not knowing………..

#21 Not an idiot on 07.12.20 at 1:57 pm

Trump closed borders and other quickly much to the surprise of many. Do people honestly think the guy is such an idiot that he would only open the country to satisfy his ego. Well yeah, I think many do. I don’t. I think he will go down as one of the greatest American presidents ever. Other countries are operating with their schools open and based on science and now experience. In North America we are spraying gasoline at each other, at the media, the media the government and so on. It’s a mess. My mo is simply to ensure every day I invest – in my relationships, my family, my home, my actual investments, and more. If you are sitting around watching the LSM, then you are wasting time and opportunity.

#22 CJ on 07.12.20 at 1:57 pm

Plenty of problems comparing Houston to Canada. First, every jurisdiction is identifying a Covid-19 case differently. It has been well documented that in Texas, for instance, health authorities count a Covid-19 case as both someone who has tested positive for the virus and also the people who he/she came in contact with. Fact is, the numbers in the United States are skewed higher because of make-believe Covid-19 cases.

#23 G on 07.12.20 at 2:00 pm

I hope this doesn’t lead to trouble in the world down the road, (like in the fall.) Maybe just another thing to keep an eye on.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/494443-hagia-sophia-islamism-erdogan/

Doing thing to try and slow virus spread seems reasonable, so the medical system isn’t overwhelmed.
If you fall into the high risk group, use an N95 mask. I do.

Try and keep your immune system ready to work as well as possible, as designed. I added tonic water and zinc since there is evidence it can help inhibiter virus replication. Giving your immune system more time to react and clear it from your system.

Most people only get flu like systems and get better.
Having a very bad flu isn’t fun at all, but most people recover. We have never shut down in past years for the flu. Yes we first thought it was worse, and it might be without medical help, that has now had some time to find meds that seem to help the very sick.

Maybe the ‘season flu’ has something to do with people being inside more in the fall and winter and not getting enough vitamin D3 which is one of the thing that is known to helps the immune system work better.

I’m hoping I and everyone else only has a mild case when we contact it eventually.
I hope the medical system still has room for the small % that need extra help to get through it. Yes I might be one of them that need extra help, but odds are most will be ok.

So far, now that there has been some time to finding the medicines that seem to help the very sick and other measure. We have “flattened the curve”, to stay below medical system capacity in Canada.

We can’t stay close for ever. It will cause other bad things to happen to the many.
I believe a life worth living has always has a bit of risk attached to it. Sure trying to avoid the risks that might end it abruptly is a good thing to strive for.

We all wishes to live as long as possible.
But at some point it always seems to come to and end as far as I can see.
So try and make the most of your life, try finding what make you happy, if you can.
As far as we know we only have one shot at this life.
If you can help others find a bit of happiness along the way all the better for us all.

#24 Just perfect on 07.12.20 at 2:05 pm

Notwithstanding I don’t see what Garth filters on the back end of the comments, I think he has created one of the most influential and current blogs in the realm of personal finance. Like many others, I have been a follower, reader and learning for more than 10 years.

I (and clearly many others) think the comments section is superb and one of the best reads. If you don’t like it, go somewhere else. Stop trying to control what Garth has created so perfectly.

Yes, you 604sam. And all the rest of you that have been weighing in on shutting the comments section down.

#25 AGuyInVancouver on 07.12.20 at 2:06 pm

#3 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.12.20 at 12:39 pm
Alas, even Garth has succumbed. This is now a fearmongering virus blog.
_ _ _
Good, maybe now you’ll leave and take the other know-nothings with you.

#26 n1tro on 07.12.20 at 2:08 pm

#183 SoggyShorts on 07.12.20 at 1:46 pm
#115 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 8:08 pm

What exactly are the arguments against mask-wearing?
————————–
I have no argument against wearing a mask. Everyone who believe it is better than nothing despite the studies so far saying there is no significant difference in transmission can go right ahead. If mandatory rules for wearing a mask lets us open back the economy and schools, then let’s do it and do it fast.

My argument has always been that these measures put in place are not effective because they don’t consider the science (despite people claiming so) and are half measures with exemptions and no enforcements.

As for justification to do anything blindly because the effectiveness is more the 0%, that should be everyone’s choice as (so far) free citizens of Canada.

#27 rosie on 07.12.20 at 2:15 pm

There seems to be a movement towards herd immunity in some places. The novel coronavirus is indeed novel. It doesn’t appear to follow the rules we think it should. Is it like a flu? Is it like SAR’s? Is it like Dengue fever? It’s novel. It’s new and little understood. Lord Black of Blackharbor,in the National Post suggested herd immunity is needed to save the economy. Yesterdays post alluded to a similar solution. I’m no an epidemiologist but neither is anyone else here. Maybe it is better safe than dead or really sick, or chronically ill, or a burden on the system.

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983

#28 David McDonald on 07.12.20 at 2:24 pm

I am amazed by Garth’s optimism but then he and his team have a long track record of correctly predicting the mood of Mr. Market. As for Trump’s mask it is surely too late to change the perception that he has failed to protect the American people. By election time there will a quarter million deaths. It’s hard to mask that.

#29 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.12.20 at 2:28 pm

Irrational Assumption: ICU’s are full….of Covid Patients.

Reality: ICU’s are designed to be routinely run at 70 to 80% capacity as (in the States) if they don’t they won’t make money or (in Canada) it’s not cost effective. These ICU’s are now filling with their normal patients PLUS extra patients from deferred treatments whose conditions got worse PLUS Covid patients.

Alas one cannot find these numbers. But as I’ve posted here, facts don’t matter to the irrational anyway.

#30 FreeBird on 07.12.20 at 2:29 pm

US Roman Catholic Church lobbied for and gets $1.4B tax payer backed (virus) aid. Good to know. Kanye West’s biz, McEnany’s family got ‘relief’ too.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en_ca/article/akzjg8/catholic-dioceses-that-paid-huge-sex-abuse-settlements-managed-to-get-ppp-loans

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-01-08/the-catholic-church-s-strategy-to-limit-payouts-to-abuse-victims

#31 Devil Anse on 07.12.20 at 2:30 pm

…but stands in excellent shape now for a broad and meaningful reopening of all sectors of society as the year grinds on….

————————————

Not all sectors please. Indoor bars and clubs are rife with close-proximity moist talking. They should be closed and remain closed. Bars are not necessary and there have been several superspreader events in the Montreal burbs and at Vancouver strip clubs. Ditto large sporting events and concerts. Choirs and large religious gatherings should remain very limited and only occur with proper measures. I played hockey a few nights ago and I fear indoor rinks with sweaty men panting and puffing will become another hotbed of Covid sharing. While I enjoyed being on the ice with my friends again, this sort of thing too will
likely have to be rolled back until we understand more about how the virus is spread and Covid-19.

#32 I'm going to Disney world on 07.12.20 at 2:31 pm

Such fun… ‘murica

#33 oh yes you are on 07.12.20 at 2:36 pm

@#21 Not an idiot on 07.12.20 at 1:57 pm
Trump closed borders and other quickly much to the surprise of many. Do people honestly think the guy is such an idiot that he would only open the country to satisfy his ego. Well yeah, I think many do. I don’t. I think he will go down as one of the greatest American presidents ever.

lolololo

#34 Shawn on 07.12.20 at 2:37 pm

Trump will be the first president to lose re election with the stock market hitting ATHs. The market is pricing in a BUYden victory.

#35 Shawn on 07.12.20 at 2:40 pm

How cum no mention of TSLA anymore? It was the real thing after all wasn’t it…

#36 this just in on 07.12.20 at 2:42 pm

Constitution Lawyer Rocco Galati Files Claim Against Government for Covid-19 Unlawful Acts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CurxZ-LhJ1I

#37 Shawn on 07.12.20 at 2:45 pm

The TSX and ex-US equities continue to perform horribly due to their old world economy majority holdings. They will go up but will continue to underperform the S&P500 and especially the Nasdaq longer term.

Many Canadian portfolios will suffer as a result. The overwhelming majority of investment advisors in Canada are heavily deworsified.

Untrue. There is a strong home-country bias among Canadian advisors, and a lack of diversification. – Garth

#38 Shawn on 07.12.20 at 2:50 pm

DELETED

#39 Faron on 07.12.20 at 2:50 pm

#29 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.12.20 at 2:28 pm
“…Alas one cannot find these numbers…”

Then how, exactly, do you know the numbers o rational and wise one? Are you an ICU nurse in Houston? Ah, you made them up. A fox news fantasy. I see. Tucker Carlson is attractive.

Here are some numbers:

During an eight-day period in late June and early July, Houston’s 12 busiest emergency departments have neared or hit maximum capacity nearly three times as often compared to the same period a year earlier.

#40 Shawn on 07.12.20 at 2:54 pm

DELETED

Quota. – Garth

#41 Camille on 07.12.20 at 2:56 pm

Today’s post is very good, and giving me lots to think about. Gath you believe 2nd quarter is low point, if I read correctly (I’ll be thinking about it). So things get better from here on in.
My thought (based on others too of course), is that many companies, stores, restaurants, etc. are not viable in post pandemic world, with virus controlled but still a threat (i.e no vaccine era). And spending in chart is credit based. And many jobs and their income to disappear. And so on and on…
So you are a surprise to me here today!

#42 Shawn on 07.12.20 at 2:58 pm

Conversely, there is no shortage of Canadian bank ETFs, dividend ETFs, bond ETFs, themed fixed income ETFs, energy ETFs, commodity ETFs, international ETFs.

I will admit that there are a few basic S&P500 ETFs that are decent. But that’s basically it for US exposure. Very few US sector ETFs etc available on the TSX.

Telling.

#43 faron on 07.12.20 at 3:01 pm

#38 Shawn

Maybe check the numbers on that before making such claims.

Since mId April:

VCN: +4.3%
IXUS: +6.0%
ITOT: +3.8%

Not a cherry pick, just the numbers from a robo account I opened and funded on the 19th of April. Admittedly, could change in the blink of an eye, but the US isn’t running away with anything. Also IXUS isn’t as good a comparison as a euro-centric index.

#44 Dolce Vita on 07.12.20 at 3:03 pm

ONCE AND FOR ALL including the guest Blogger:

Your CALCULATIONS are BOGUS. Mathematically HOLD NO WATER.

Numbers are ALL based on POST lockdown and other measures to thwart COVID-19.

THUS, claims of it being innocuous are fantasy, faerie dust and riders of unicorns. Divination at its worst.

GET IT?

If there had been no lockdown, distancing, masks etc., and those were the numbers THEN correct BUT ALAS not correct for REASONS LOST ON THIS BLOGS SELF APPOINTED MATH WHIZZ’s (which you are not).

THUS you will NEVER KNOW THE TRUE NUMBERS.

Try taking a Math course all of you, about hypotheses, proofs and boundaries/restraints to a math problem and its calculation…then we can talk some more AND not before.

CLOWN CAR CALCULATIONS.

———————-

Want to know what went wrong in America for all its cases now, NBC told it best:

https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/what-the-u-s-can-learn-from-europe-s-coronavirus-strategy-87420997747

#45 Shawn on 07.12.20 at 3:04 pm

XIT – Canadian tech ETF had virtually no assets under management until recently. SHOP has only slightly increased its popularity very recently.

Still XIT only has $350M AUM compared to XIU & XIC at $15B+ in assets combined.

Bottom line – Canadians don’t invest in technology.

#46 the Jaguar on 07.12.20 at 3:05 pm

What a nice email to Garth from Chris in Houston. He must be from Alberta originally, workin’ in the Houston ‘patch’.
The Covid numbers as reported are a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.
The thing that’s missing is ‘context’. Context such as ‘why the numbers of cases and deaths are so much higher in some areas than others with similar sized population and density. Montreal – population approx. 1,780,000. Cases 27,603 with 3,423 deaths. ( note the total cases for all of Quebec population of 8,433,301. is 56,521 with 5627 deaths.)
All of British Columbia population approx. 5,020,302 . Cases 3053 with 187 deaths. Alberta population 4,345,737. Cases 8596 with 160 deaths. Even highly populated Ontario with the density of the GTA taken into account 14,446,515 population has 2719 deaths, significantly less than Montreal alone. Old folks homes aside, why do 1 in 10 die in Quebec?
Nova Scotia reports 1066 cases, but 63 deaths which seems high versus the number of cases.
And then there is the matter of testing. Some provinces have significantly out-tested others, so that has to have an impact on case numbers ( example BC-212,459 versus Alberta 514,970.
We know old folks homes were heavily impacted, especially at the beginning of the crisis. But with such inequality of statistics and provinces like Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and New Brunswick having such low case numbers, ( 815,325, and 166 respectively), doesn’t it show that full re-opening the economy and services in some areas of the country is reasonable?
The data provided to the public these past months (cases, hospitalizations, ICU, death, recoveries, number of tests) doesn’t really provide a complete picture.
I can’t shake the feeling that if the medical bureaucrats are given too much authority over business practices many will find themselves deep in the quick sand. We need to open up air travel, allow more seating in restaurants, and get people back to some semblance of normality.

#47 TurnerNation on 07.12.20 at 3:10 pm

May 2021: get ready to enroll your children into Virtual summer camp. Yay.

Download an app:
Alexa’ Cabin from Amazon.
Apple’s Summer Funner
Or Google’s Secret Summer Adventure app*
*also available as a plug-in in Google Classroom.

These global ruling tech giants will begin building their marketing database and psychological profile on your child. For a head start in life long marketing.

The latest A.I. coupled with game theory and positive/negative reward stimuli will ensure your child never puts down the app. The apps will answer all questions including ones which are so embarrassing to ask Mom and Dad.
I hear the cool kids at school
will hang out with Apple this year.

In short the global technocracy will know and raise your kids more than you.

^That is all fictional right?

#48 Shawn on 07.12.20 at 3:17 pm

QUOTA

#49 Flop... on 07.12.20 at 3:18 pm

Flop’s Extensive List Of Professions Unaffected By COVID-19.

Here is the total list of jobs that look the same as before the virus.

Bellydancing…

M46BC

#50 Felix on 07.12.20 at 3:19 pm

Another revealing photo today.

Three intelligent and caring felines licking up spilled milk to prevent a small child from drowning in it.

Compare that to just last month:

A dogawful mutt attempting to smother a child to death.

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/06/11/issues-2/

#51 Faron on 07.12.20 at 3:23 pm

#45 Dolce Vita on 07.12.20 at 3:03 pm

“Try taking a Math course”

Okay, but only if you take a course on HTML tags so we don’t have to wade through your ALL CAPS.

click here

With all due respect :-). They are a pain to type, but make things easier for all to read.

#52 Slim on 07.12.20 at 3:28 pm

Keep the comments section going! Some of us don’t have a life.

#53 Dolce Vita on 07.12.20 at 3:34 pm

“…public health emergency will be contained if Americans do what we did.”

Classic Cdn. SMUG and taking credit for nothing.

Go back and revisit ON, PQ and other Provinces at the onset of COVID-19 in Canada. Recall the PPE shortages? Recall the ventilator shortages? And all that with a few hundred cases per day. Some health care system. You know, breweries making hand disinfectant cause you didn’t have enough. Trudeau begging China for equipment since the Americans would give Canada none. I could go on.

SHORT MEMORY HUH CANADA?

What “you did” eventually, was adopt European measures and slowly, reluctantly, bit by bit, I would add. And only, BECAUSE CASES WERE SOARING (as usual thinking their rarified air and Orca’s were going to save them – ah, it didn’t).

How quickly Canadians forget and rewrite history to their liking.

Basically Canada closed its borders to the US, a no brainer back then and now and sorry to tell you this Canada but:

Geographically, you are “out of the way” like NZ and Oz, the latter much heralded yet geographically isolated (kind of like Antarctica or Mars).

Be grateful for your geographic isolation. Be grateful you learned from the European experience, although reluctant/challenged all of the way doing it.

And can the smugness Canada, it’s annoying to say the least.

————————

As for many that will remind me of Pariah Italia which is “not out of the way” (you know, Venice alone gets more tourists in a year than all of Canada, then there is Rome, there is Florence, there is…), got visited by far too many Asian tourists when the pandemic was raging in Asia but NOT REPORTED BY THE WHO, here are our stats today (just in case you want to run Italia down):

8/21 Regions 0 new cases.
17/21 Regions with ≤ 16 new cases.
Highest number of new cases is Lombardy at 77.

Because Italia is THE ONLY truly and totally open country in Europe with international travel and all, HALF of our +243 new cases due to foreigners visiting here and already infected (some on planes we’ve had to accept and hospitalize), short list of infected “visitors” that would not voluntarily quarantine (heaven forbid their dream vacation would be affected):

Bangladesh
Pakistan
Serbia
Bulgaria
N. Africans
…the list is long and have been banned as of yesterday to travel to Italia.

———————–

When I see you doing what we are doing now in Italia (fully open economy, international travel) and still with very few new cases, then you can get smug Canada and BUT NOT BEFORE.

#54 baloney Sandwitch on 07.12.20 at 3:45 pm

I think covid has really destoyed the small “mom & pop” business. Once the dust settles there will be shortages as lot of baby boomer entrepreneurs would be gone. It will be a while before a new set of millennials can fill their shoes.

#55 Steven Nicolle on 07.12.20 at 3:59 pm

Okay so I posted earlier and I guess Doug Ford heard me. This just out
https://www.cp24.com/1.5021120

#56 Linda on 07.12.20 at 4:07 pm

Another photo showing the Donald wearing a mask, with his staff also in masks. Separate photo from the VA hospital, so presumably his re-election advisors have finally gotten the message across. As long as it encourages the faithful to follow suit.

Meanwhile, may all Canadians stay vigilant. Keep up the hand washing & mask wearing. As for the germaphobic crowd, be happy that your fellow citizens are at least wearing a mask. If all that does is prevent any cough or sneeze from catapulting their saliva in all directions take it as a win. Seriously, I swear some folks would still complain if we all went around in full on hazmat gear.

#57 Italian Steerage on 07.12.20 at 4:11 pm

#54 Dolce Vita on 07.12.20 at 3:34 pm


Why is there some random dude from Italy screaming on a Canadian RE blog …

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.12.20 at 4:12 pm

My my.
Judging by the snarky paranoid rebuttals to Garth’s daily comment.

Apparently the planet earth has orbited too close to the comet’s tail…… and there was something in the vaporous gas…….

I’m immune to unexplained gaseous clouds, dog help the rest of you.

#59 Cici on 07.12.20 at 4:13 pm

Great Post!

Thanks Chris and thanks Garth. The sane and lucid have finally spoken!

#60 Damifino on 07.12.20 at 4:28 pm

#1 Cliff

In BC we appear to have gotten ahead of the curve [….] We are also now seeing people behave like it never happened. Another wave coming?
—————————-

I hope not, but probably.

I live in Vancouver and it seems to me most folks are still distancing and many are wearing masks. Myself for one, at least whenever I go in a grocery store. I don’t feel the need to wear one in my car or on the street, although I tend to avoid getting to close to people even then.

What’s dramatic is the increase in traffic. In April Granville Street and 4th Avenue were deserted. It was plain spooky. Now traffic is as thick as it ever was.

I see lots of young people still distancing and wearing masks in most places. But not so much on Kitsilano Beach. I think it’s a different set of rules in effect there. But the virus wasn’t informed.

Of course, one thing that never stopped was condo construction. Covid didn’t have the slightest effect.

#61 Mooshinga on 07.12.20 at 4:42 pm

Too many food places in Canada. Time for a lot to go out of business

#62 JM on 07.12.20 at 4:48 pm

Just an observation…

So basically all assets based on “funny money” go to the moon. These markets do not represent capitalism work…it’s all a big scam. Governments basically come in to rescue failing businesses and do it under the “greater good” banner. No different than all the kids getting participation badges for winning absolutely nothing.

How does this all end?

As stated, markets are forward-looking, and they see that economic recovery is inevitable. Maybe you should look up, too. – Garth

#63 Seriously...? on 07.12.20 at 5:01 pm

Nasdaq is a massive bubble.

Consumer spending driven by stimulus expiring July and the “stick it to my landlord and blow rent on consumer goods” stimulus, which will also end at some point.

Permanent unemployment will stay elevated as all these struggling restaurants, bars and tourism venues reopen for a few months then close again.

30% of US GDP is about to shut down again.

You have it completely backwards. Canada will fare better than the USA. Watch the market correction come in the next two months.

#64 MaggieB on 07.12.20 at 5:02 pm

Just curious Dolce Vita, where were you born? Are you truly Italian, or just Italian descent?

#65 Terri on 07.12.20 at 5:12 pm

“By turning a blind eye, Trump looks callous when folks are fearful. By donning a mask, he appears concerned. Strong leaders can also be empathetic. A lesson worth learning.” He is Clown with no identity! “Strong Leader”, what are you smoking?

#66 neo on 07.12.20 at 5:26 pm

What’s fake money? – Garth

Money printed out of thin air with no economic origin from goods or services or taxes. Fake is a poor choice of words but to be honest it isn’t even printed. It’s a digital transfer out of nothing.

Money is backed by the power to tax. There will never again be a commodity-based currency. Find something else to worry about. – Garth

#67 Sail Away on 07.12.20 at 5:30 pm

#9 Faron on 07.12.20 at 1:10 pm

“Stop nitpicking.”

I can’t. That would be akin to asking a shark to stop swimming.

—————-

Actually… when swimming with sharks in the Galapagos, it was common to see black- and whitetip reef sharks laying on the bottom or in rocky grottos for hours at a time.

So you can do it!

#68 TRON on 07.12.20 at 5:35 pm

#2 TurnerNation on 07.12.20 at 12:35 pm

That excerpt from their site is some serious 1984 shit.

Defund WE now…who’s in?

#69 Sail Away on 07.12.20 at 5:41 pm

Here’s backup:

https://www.amnh.org/explore/news-blogs/education-posts/sharks-rays-myths#:~:text=Myth%20%231%3A%20Sharks%20Must%20Swim,sea%20floor%20and%20still%20breathe.

#70 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.12.20 at 5:41 pm

#40 Faron on 07.12.20 at 2:50 pm shreaks:
“#29 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.12.20 at 2:28 pm
“…Alas one cannot find these numbers…”

Then how, exactly, do you know the numbers o rational and wise one? Are you an ICU nurse in Houston? Ah, you made them up. A fox news fantasy. I see. Tucker Carlson is attractive.

Here are some numbers:

During an eight-day period in late June and early July, Houston’s 12 busiest emergency departments have neared or hit maximum capacity nearly three times as often compared to the same period a year earlier.”
——————————————–
Numbers of each type of case? But you knew that you’re just emotional again.

#71 SoggyShorts on 07.12.20 at 5:49 pm

#63 JM on 07.12.20 at 4:48 pm
Just an observation…

So basically all assets based on “funny money” go to the moon. These markets do not represent capitalism work…it’s all a big scam. Governments basically come in to rescue failing businesses and do it under the “greater good” banner. No different than all the kids getting participation badges for winning absolutely nothing.

How does this all end?
**********************
Jump on board! You’re exactly right that the game is rigged.
Big corporations spend millions lobbying, are too big to fail, get tax cuts and incentives, are basically monopolies, etc etc
The “market” is the best example of “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em”

#72 cuke and tomato picker on 07.12.20 at 5:56 pm

There is a reason why BC has handled the covid 19 so well.It would be bragging if to say why.

#73 AM in MN on 07.12.20 at 5:58 pm

It isn’t just an issue of broad market numbers, there are big changes going on that will last a long time, and you need to get on the right side of these.

It will be a long time before people want to cram into airplanes or cruise ships the way they used to, unless a requirement for work or an emergency, people are staying close to home and driving their cars.

Check out the numbers on RV’s, camping equipment, or house construction in the outer suburbs. Try and find skilled workers!

Also, my take on the Covid uptick. I think a lot of it has to do with air conditioning systems, especially now down south where no one goes outside. Recirculated, unfiltered air in small places, like small restaurants or subway cars (airplanes?), are a big problem. It costs money to bring in outside air and cool it vs. recirculating the inside air.

This used to be known as sick building syndrome and it isn’t rocket science. A modern hospital room will flow 3x as much air as a standard hotel room for this very reason. Operating room s are like 20x.

Stay outside with a bit of distance and you’ll be fine. Canada will have an issue when the cold returns. Check out the numbers in BC where there’s very little air conditioning.

In 1918 there was no air conditioning. 2 years of problems, and then 8 years of growth!

This will take a while to work through, plan accordingly.

In the winter, people in TX and FL and AZ will go back outside and things will be better. Needs schools that can open the windows!

#74 KAC on 07.12.20 at 6:01 pm

Given the constant application of 20/20 hindsight in the relentless media and political criticism of Trump’s response to Coronavirus, it might be worth remembering how many of today’s critics initially downplayed the seriousness of the virus and claimed it was “just another flu”.

Remember the media and political outrage over Trump’s restrictions on travel from China? Xenophobic! Racist! Was the common response. “Carry on living as usual” came the advice from New York politicians, and Pelosi urged crowds to “come to Chinatown”.

In March the head of the WHO praised Trump’s actions:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/who-chief-praises-trumps-leadership-in-handling-coronavirus-pandemic/

WHO chief praises Trump’s coronavirus ‘leadership’ in responding to the virus.

The director-general of the World Health Organization praised President Trump’s “political commitment” to preventing the spread of coronavirus as the global community works to “suppress and control” the pandemic.
Asked about Trump’s handling of the pandemic during a press conference Wednesday, WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the crisis needed “leadership.”
“And that’s exactly what he is doing, which we appreciate. Because fighting this pandemic needs political commitment and commitment at the highest level possible,” Tedros said.
“But not only the whole-of-government approach, but the other [things] like expanding testing and the other recommendations we are making are also in play, and he takes that seriously and that is what we see.”

—————————————————————-

How quickly we forget.

#75 Mark on 07.12.20 at 6:03 pm

@neo and @garth

So you’re going to print fake money into the system that goes into bidding up assets to save the stock market versus creating actual economic growth and then tax the Disappearing middle class for it afterward? So then why should they invest In fake markets if they have to pay it back in taxes after?

#76 1255 on 07.12.20 at 6:16 pm

Funny how you fail to mention the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet – the greatest in the history of history. You can come up with any number of justifications but without that $7 trillion we’d be sitting at March lows. The market is not forward looking – it is being artificially inflated!

Let’s see what happens when they try to reduce that balance sheet. They tried a little experiment previously and quickly did an about face! Remember that December when everything came crashing down? Yeah – that had nothing to do with China trade.

#77 WE are in control on 07.12.20 at 6:20 pm

#2 TurnerNation on 07.12.20 at 12:35 pm
What could 2021 bring?
Fact: The World Economic Forum is openly planning a reset. I’ll post the concrete words from their web site. (WE forum. Like WE Charity and ‘WE are all in this together’. Brilliant global marketing)

My opinion is that the lockdowns must continue well into 2021 to keep us beaten down.
….

The metal strip in the face masks are a 5G antenna.. no need to microchip us ..dont wear one or they will know when you leave your rabbit hole

#78 n1tro on 07.12.20 at 6:32 pm

#69 TRON on 07.12.20 at 5:35 pm
#2 TurnerNation on 07.12.20 at 12:35 pm

That excerpt from their site is some serious 1984 shit.
——-
Have you read the BLM manifesto? Yikes!

#79 Marco on 07.12.20 at 6:34 pm

#58 Italian Steerage
———————————-

Random dude is Canadian pensioner who can choose where to live (can you?). I guess in his years in Canada he meet a lot of idiots and still have need to educate them. Throwing pearls in front of swines,
Something like that.

#80 Billy Buoy on 07.12.20 at 6:44 pm

Please save yourself some time and write a post and that reads:

As long as the FED and other Central Banks back markets, they will rise.

Nothing else matters.

Rinse and repeat continuously til it doesn’t.

Simple, sweet and appropriate.

It would be inaccurate. However, fiscal and monetary stimulus will continue to make investors happy. Obviously that doesn’t include you. – Garth

#81 Statsfreak on 07.12.20 at 6:44 pm

I completely agree with Chris in his last paragraph! Very well expressed and spot on!!!

#82 Nonplused on 07.12.20 at 6:45 pm

Well, at least Chris’s advice on whether to shut down the comments section is based on Garth’s blood pressure and not on the advice of some person who comes to the comment section to complain about the comments section. Comments or no comments it should be based on Garth alone.

I don’t know why everyone makes such a big deal about Trump and his mask (or lack thereof). He’s mostly hiding out in the White House, when he is out and about no one who hasn’t been tested negative gets within 12 feet of him, and he’s on hydroxychloroquine. But I do agree it is good to see him in a mask when visiting a hospital where the most vulnerable are and he will presumably be closer to the patients. And it does send the appropriate message to his base. If your exalted freedom fighter in orange can wear a mask, you can too. He probably should have done so much earlier. Maybe they’d have less people getting into fights over it at this point.

I can make a report after going for a long cruize yesterday with a buddy through rural Alberta. Normally we have a rural pub as an end point for our ride and then have lunch but we decided to skip lunch out of caution and just have some beers at his place when we were done. But based on the number of pickup trucks and motorcycles that were in the parking lots the pubs and golf courses are back to near capacity crowds, no social distancing or masks. Reports are this is going on in town too. Get ready for wave 2.

We did break the distancing rules ourselves at one point. When passing through a small town we saw a woman trying unsuccessfully to get her husband back in his wheelchair, so we stopped and hoisted him back up. Covid or no, we couldn’t just leave him on the sidewalk. And actually we didn’t even think about it until after. So the rules are never going to work perfectly. We both had gloves on though so maybe it was no big deal.

#83 Optimistic on 07.12.20 at 6:48 pm

Thanks for the post!
You are optimistic
I agree and disagree but you have more experience!
I worry allot.
I have a serious question.
Are you not worried about $350 billion plus deficit?
I realize it’s only one year and then my question is are you not worried about one Trillion in debt?

Of course, as it will cause tax stress and keep interest rates below reasonable levels. All the more reason to maintain a balanced and globally diversified portfolio. – Garth

#84 Wrk.dover on 07.12.20 at 6:51 pm

#23 G on 07.12.20 at 2:00 pm
I hope this doesn’t lead to trouble in the world down the road, (like in the fall.) Maybe just another thing to keep an eye on.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/494443-hagia-sophia-islamism-erdogan/

Try and keep your immune system ready to work as well as possible, as designed. I added tonic water

—————————————-

I prefer death by covert virus over either gin or tonic.

#85 Trojan House on 07.12.20 at 6:55 pm

Well according to CDC and National Center for Health Statistics own numbers, in Texas there have been 89,692 deaths from all causes so far this year including 2,515 deaths from Covid so far. That is only 2.8% of all deaths in Texas.

The number of cases doesn’t matter. What matters is the number of deaths and that has been steadily decreasing in the USA since mid April. As reported on April 18th, there were 16,886 deaths. The most up to date is the last week of June where there were 1,024 deaths. So, yeah, the media is reporting on the case numbers and not the death numbers because they have been decreasing. It’s almost like herd immunity is being achieved or something.

#86 Nonplused on 07.12.20 at 7:03 pm

#2 TurnerNation on 07.12.20 at 12:35 pm

“Animals are training using fear: sheep herding dogs bite. Electric fences and prods. Shock collars and invisible fences.”

———————–

Actually if you’ve ever taken a dog to obedience school you’ll recall it’s all about the treats. There is no negative reinforcement at obedience school, just lots and lots of treats and encouragement. We have an invisible fence but it gives an audio warning before activating so our dog never zaps himself unless there is a coyote that has just pissed him off royally and he must pursue. But most times even when the battery goes dead or we forget to put on the collar he knows exactly where the boundary is and stays home. The alternative would be a leash and far less room. This way he has free range of about half an acre and he doesn’t get tangled up. And he was trained initially using flags and treats as to where the boundary was before he ever got zapped.

Sometimes lightning will set off the audio warning when he is in the house. That will make for one confused dog but the collar isn’t supposed to be on in those conditions so my bad. Sometimes when it isn’t on it’ll beep do to lightning and he jumps to his feet and goes and sits somewhere else even though the collar couldn’t possibly zap him, it isn’t on him. Smart, but not that smart.

#87 Flop... on 07.12.20 at 7:21 pm

Is Canada overdoing the CERB?

I check in on a Melbourne newspaper almost daily, mainly because of football, but I always think I might as well have a quick poke around to see what else is going on.

Things are going so great in Melbourne at the moment, lockdowns and all that, but I thought I saw the other day someone moaning about having trouble getting people back to work when they are getting $750 to sit on the couch.

Any truth to that?

CERB was caned for its simplicity but the Aussie one gave me a headache trying to work it all out as it appeared so contrived.

They have different levels depending on kids and care situations.

Best I could tell I was in Australia and had lost my job due to Coronavirus, I would be receiving a payment of 1,060 a fortnight or 2,120 a month.

So, more than here, but not 750 a week.

The closest I could see was I you were home schooling,( dunno if they mean just during the virus) or a few other options, you could be eligible for 1,340 a fortnight,or 2,680 a month.

Think it’s meant to expire in late September, but this is where the argument for regional control gains traction, as people in the state of Victoria are more likely to need it than in the island state of Tasmania.

Also perhaps of note, I have talked on here how my superannuation companies have been sending me emails to be eligible to strip 10k out of my retirement funds, along with my fellow Australians.

How is that working out?

Epic failure, camels nose is in the tent.

After intensive lobbying, they are letting people take another 10k out, so 20k gone out of say your RRSP or TFSA,never to be replaced for most, and undoubtedly a lot of that money will end up in real estate, just as things were starting to cool down.

They are doing their darn best to guarantee the next couple of generations are destitute donkeys saddled with debt, that will be handed on to the following generation at death.

It’s all gone wrong.

Unless you are a developer…

M46BC

https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/jobseeker-payment/how-much-you-can-get

#88 Rick on 07.12.20 at 7:26 pm

DELETED

#89 John in Mtl on 07.12.20 at 7:29 pm

A bit of wisdom for some of the blog dog conspirationists:

“We don’t see things as they are, we see things as WE are”

#90 Nonplused on 07.12.20 at 7:31 pm

#67 neo on 07.12.20 at 5:26 pm
What’s fake money? – Garth

Money printed out of thin air with no economic origin from goods or services or taxes. Fake is a poor choice of words but to be honest it isn’t even printed. It’s a digital transfer out of nothing.

Money is backed by the power to tax. There will never again be a commodity-based currency. Find something else to worry about. – Garth

——————-

I don’t agree totally with either premise. The ability to pay your taxes with government accepted money does give the government accepted money primary utility over any other currency that might be proposed. For example you can’t pay US taxes in Canadian dollars. I know. In the US most people have never even seen a Canadian dollar and it is only accepted in select areas near the border. Most US corporations don’t even have the ability to put Canadian dollars in the accounting system.

Money is a unit of measure, like an inch or an ounce, only money measures relative value.

“Fake” money does exist but it is counterfeit. Or something like bitcoin which is ultimately measured in real money, but is only worth what someone last bid for it.

But I think a lot of people use the word “fake” to describe what they perceive to be the over-issuance of currency by the central banks. I guess we are all experts here but I think we will only know in hindsight what the effects of the CERB and all the other programs are. Perhaps we will end up with too many “inches” and thus inflation. But a deflationary debt collapse might be worse. Time will tell.

Anyway I better stop commenting now that I see there is a quota. That is a rule I could live with.

#91 MF on 07.12.20 at 7:35 pm

#60 majik on 07.11.20 at 3:13 pm

That’s one of many conclusions that can be made.

You have to ask yourself how likely each scenario is though.

I look at it like the crop circle phenomenon. They could be made by aliens who travel millions of light years, land UFO’s in corn fields, then take off without anyone knowing. Or, they could just be made by humans.

Bald could be some fake englishman, traveling into areas with civil unrest under some fake guise, and being in cahoots with youtube’s executives in order to get fake subs. Or, he could just be some guy who didn’t take the situation seriously enough, got burned, and is now telling his story as a caution.

You decide which is more probable.

MF

#92 Flop... on 07.12.20 at 7:41 pm

You know the world is out of whack when I can write a longer post than Nonplused.

Good to see you back, Buddy.

People want to shut down the comments?

Just don’t look.

Do we need to unionize?

Blathering Lives Matter…

M46BC

#93 MF on 07.12.20 at 7:43 pm

QUOTA

#94 MF on 07.12.20 at 7:50 pm

#76 Idiocy on 07.11.20 at 4:55 pm

““Pretty easy to do for the past 12 years during the manipulated bull market …”

Then why didn’t you do it ?

Sail Away makes a valid assertation and no, I’m not a fan of his.
But when he is right, he is right.”

-First off I read Garth’s blog (mandatory suck up) and know that timing the market is a fool’s game.

Secondly, I just don’t have the time. I work 7 days a week and just don’t have the time to watch green and red candlesticks. Moreover, everything I’ve read has shown that most traders exaggerate their wins and downplay their losses. Sail Away may have killed it with TSLA, which is awesome, but he also may have some losses (I hope not). No one always wins in this game. A string a wins could be followed by a string of losses. To think that I can beat the pros and algo’s at their own game is foolish.

MF

#95 Idiocy on 07.12.20 at 7:53 pm

to comment # 127 by Conan on 07/12/20

The twisted logic you employed to attempt to refute my points denotes a lack of familiarity with the facts and, indeed, reality.

The ad hominem just underscored the weakness of your ‘rebuttal’.

#96 MF on 07.12.20 at 7:54 pm

#94 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.11.20 at 6:43 pm

“Pointing out that irrational people are irrationally afraid of facts is not a personal attack.

Nice try though.”

-If ad hominem were tallied like hits in baseball here, you’d be the Cal Ripken of this blog.

Congrats to the iron man.

MF

#97 MF on 07.12.20 at 7:57 pm

#137 SWL on 07.11.20 at 11:33 pm
@59 Dee Nailed it!

Nice to see not everyone has fallen for the hysteria. On another note I’ve often thought MF would make a great little commie swallowing what ever pill they are told, with their nose held high standing in line

-And just what did I say that makes me “a commie”?

I’ll wait.

Actually, while we are at it, please explain the chem trails in the sky to us all again like you used to here.

MF

#98 Shawn on 07.12.20 at 8:08 pm

QUOTA

#99 mike from mtl on 07.12.20 at 8:17 pm

#86 Trojan House on 07.12.20 at 6:55 pm

The number of cases doesn’t matter. What matters is the number of deaths and that has been steadily decreasing in the USA since mid April.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Same here, the death count has been low as march. Northeast in both countries graph are very similar. Again it’s going to blow away the easy targets either very quickly or eventually. Ignoring the problem will not make it go away.

As an aside, why is Toronto still so restricted? Even in MTL apart from specific Bars ‘outbreaks’ (big deal) we are doing pretty alright, all considered.

#100 Nonplused on 07.12.20 at 8:17 pm

#93 Flop… on 07.12.20 at 7:41 pm
“You know the world is out of whack when I can write a longer post than Nonplused.”

Hey…..

Anyway I am trying to cut down in respect of Garth’s workload, but I never really left. Anyway I am over quota now.

#101 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.12.20 at 8:22 pm

#58 Italian Steerage on 07.12.20 at 4:11 pm
#54 Dolce Vita on 07.12.20 at 3:34 pm


Why is there some random dude from Italy screaming on a Canadian RE blog …
————-
I wonder about that, too.
Pretend Italian, uses the “we”.
Strange.

#102 Billy Buoy on 07.12.20 at 8:32 pm

Please save yourself some time and write a post and that reads:

As long as the FED and other Central Banks back markets, they will rise.

Nothing else matters.

Rinse and repeat continuously til it doesn’t.

Simple, sweet and appropriate.

It would be inaccurate. However, fiscal and monetary stimulus will continue to make investors happy. Obviously that doesn’t include you. – Garth

________________________________________

It does include me.

But does it warm my heart and make me happy knowing TRILLIONS are spent to bail out mostly the 1% while likely 75% are scared to death of the future?

Does it make you happy knowing inflation is far higher than massaged government numbers? That wages for the past 20 plus years have basically been stagnant making it far harder for the average person to have shelter, eat properly, support a family?

I respect the fact that you are a bright, hard working man Mr. Turner and the TRILLIONS financially engineered have enhanced both of us. However, would you see it in your heart to think maybe about 1/2 of that money that was created to bail out the system that rewards taking huge risks, zombie companies was instead put towards affordable housing, proper senior citizen housing, etc that for the past 30 years governments knew would be a MASSIVE need solely based on demographics????

I’ll take 10-15% off my gains to help others, would you?

Would you ever ask some of the people you were in office with if they would even ever consider truly working for all the public vs the corps and huge patrons that support their advertising to run for office or is the system too far gone and gee, tough luck losers, some people have to win and some have to lose….that’s life.

So am I happy? Let’s say I’m content Mr. Turner. I have what I need, my family is secure.

I’d be happy if the system was a bit more level and actually worked for ALL instead of about 20% of us. And I know as long as the FED and other central banks work mostly for the 1% that will never happen but our digits will always be secure and covered at the expense of 90% of the world…Does that make you happy Mr. Turner?

I provide free and useful advice and guidance daily to help people achieve financial security and balance. Don’t lecture me. – Garth

#103 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.12.20 at 8:35 pm

Financially, Mr. Covid has been good to my family.
Before he showed up, we prepared a budget, and the following items will not be spent this year:
Trip to Europe: 15,000
Trip to China: 10,000
Son’s UBC residency: 12,000
Son’s car in storage: 6,000
Restaurants: 2,000
Clothes. 1,000
Miscell. 1,000

TOTAl. 47,000
All after tax $
Will put all this money in our rainy day fund.
Thank you Mr. Covid.

#104 Hairhead on 07.12.20 at 8:44 pm

Why all the fuss about a disease with a less than 1% mortality rate? There are two problems with this question:

1. It neglects the law of large numbers; and
2. It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine.

The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead.

Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.

The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right?

What about the people who survive?

For every one person who dies:

-19 more require hospitalization.
-18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
-10 will have permanent lung damage.
-3 will have strokes.
-2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.
-2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.

So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:

-3,282,000 people dead.
-62,358,000 hospitalized.
-59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.
-32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.
-9,846,000 people with strokes.
-6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.
-6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.

That’s the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get.

As the COVID era continues, the death rate falls because the medical profession is learning, by trial and error, moderately effective treatments. It is imperative that we not give up now, but continue isolate, reduce numbers infected, and come up with new treatments.

#105 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.12.20 at 8:46 pm

SAILO and FARON
This is not a blog about sharks.
Unless you talk about loansharks, go take a swim.
Oh forgot, you can’t swim.

#106 Pi in the sky on 07.12.20 at 8:49 pm

Everyone is so concerned with Garth’s well-being with respect to the comments section.
So why does Garth or anyone for that matter even need to editorialize and at times “censor” the comment section? If your concern is comments with vulgar language or certain specific keywords, that can be automated so that they are rejected before being published. For any other truly offending posts, there could be a mechanism to allow others to flag them.
He would save a few hours each day but wouldn’t have the gratification of sending snarky one-liners to those he disagrees with.
Just saying…

The internet is a cesspool of unfiltered drivel. Not here. – Garth

#107 James on 07.12.20 at 8:56 pm

Some scary stuff on CNN just now. Wolf B. interviewing Seth Harris, former Sec of Labor, about the jobs numbers and the economy.

In a nutshell, Harris says the employment rebound is now trending down. He describes how serious this is about to become in the months ahead. About 1.3 million weekly now applying for benefits, for many weeks now, a record level.

The phrase that stuck out in this conversation the most was the “jobs apocalypse” that could be ahead, especially with so many smaller operations never re-opening.

Not what I was expecting to hear.

#108 n1tro on 07.12.20 at 9:16 pm

QUOTA 🙄

#109 Steven Rowlandson on 07.12.20 at 9:16 pm

“Well, this allows financial assets to continue their ascent. The pandemic will pass. Life will go on. ”

For governments that love to borrow and spend wouldn’t it be a conflict of interest to have the pandemic go away any time soon? Permanent medical marshall law would be like nirvana for the super spenders. Think 353 billion dollar deficits or worse for Canada’s federal government ad infinitum…. Can you say hyperinflation Garth?

#110 Yuus bin Haad on 07.12.20 at 9:23 pm

Now, if we could get Joe to wear his …

#111 tbone on 07.12.20 at 9:29 pm

Stage 3 announcement scheduled for tomorrow .
Im hoping for fully open restaurants without masks .
Thats about all i really missed .

#112 OK, Doomer on 07.12.20 at 9:33 pm

If you’re a government and you print fiat money based on your ability to tax and the tax take is dropping is it a fraud or inflationary?

Past a certain point, higher taxes raise less government revenue. ECON 101.

If the ability to tax is illusionary, then the money printed is illusionary as well, therefore it is fake money and must be infaltionary as the currency is being debased.

Just ask Robert Mugabe. Or the Iranians. Or the Venezuelans or the on and on….

#113 1255 on 07.12.20 at 9:34 pm

Let’s take a look at Tesla – it is now valued more than Toyota with a fraction of the sales.

Tesla might never reach the amount of sales as Toyota and even if it did it would take 10 to 20 years to get there.

So the stock should not go any higher than it is now for another 10 years. And that is being very conservative!

This is the type of nonsense we are dealing with now in the stock market. I don’t see how that’s any different than buying a shoe box in the sky for $1 million.

So don’t buy Tesla. – Garth

#114 Canuck on 07.12.20 at 9:45 pm

While I appreciate the importance and severity of COVID19, I also see, the more I read, that this just isn’t about science. Take a few minutes to look at a couple of threads from this person’s account, who has been engaged by academics and medical professionals.

https://twitter.com/whelanh1

He’s done the math.. as have other who have contributed to these threads. The charts they post are not conspiracy theories. When will we wake up and get on with life? We’ve had worse pandemics and never shut down economies.

#115 YouKnowWho on 07.12.20 at 9:52 pm

TurnerNation,

I gotta give it to you, you’re like Carlin – 1 step out. But step back and you’re relatively on the money.

Today I enjoyed this most “ A disease so deadly you don’t know you have it until you get tested.”

#116 Doug t on 07.12.20 at 9:55 pm

#8 looking somewhere

Actually TN is more on track then you obviously understand

#117 NoName on 07.12.20 at 10:45 pm

#115 Canuck on 07.12.20 at 9:45 pm
While I appreciate the importance and severity of COVID19, I also see, the more I read, that this just isn’t about science. Take a few minutes to look at a couple of threads from this person’s account, who has been engaged by academics and medical professionals.

https://twitter.com/whelanh1

He’s done the math.. as have other who have contributed to these threads. The charts they post are not conspiracy theories. When will we wake up and get on with life? We’ve had worse pandemics and never shut down economies.

___

Just finished listening to the podcast dude sad thst just 6% that past away in us from covid were employed, recent podcast.

#118 akashic record on 07.12.20 at 11:18 pm

#103 Billy Buoy
However, fiscal and monetary stimulus will continue to make investors happy. Obviously that doesn’t include you. – Garth

Maybe this person is one those very few unfortunate people, who, after paying taxes for the money (backed by taxes) printed for fiscal and monetary stimulus (that make investors happy) doesn’t have funds left to invest?

#119 Bernand Trink on 07.12.20 at 11:24 pm

DELETED

#120 Andrew MacNeil on 07.12.20 at 11:39 pm

#12

I already checked my policy. My critical illness does not cover covid 19, as its considered like the flu. But I die, it pays out.

#121 Leo Trollstoy on 07.13.20 at 12:02 am

Obviously, this is a very simplistic and flawed comparison… the testing rate in Houston vs Canada has been ignored for example, as has the number of ICU beds per 100,000 and demographic data.

Those are 2 giant truck-sized blind spots

#122 Ronaldo on 07.13.20 at 12:22 am

#112 tbone on 07.12.20 at 9:29 pm
Stage 3 announcement scheduled for tomorrow .
Im hoping for fully open restaurants without masks .
Thats about all i really missed .
—————————————————————
I would think so. Pretty hard to eat with a mask on.

#123 Trumps fault no doubt... on 07.13.20 at 12:44 am

If we had the population of the US our Covid 19 numbers would be very similar.

Trying to compare our “success” is ridiculous.
As soon as borders open up and airports resume then the numbers will rise.

They have to, there’s no cure and we’re all still sharing the same planet.

I say we blame it all on Trump.

#124 Tim123 on 07.13.20 at 12:49 am

The overall trend of the markets is up but we are at the upper end of the range for the S&P500 so some caution is warranted. I am playing US banks into earnings for a trade, gold looks like it is going a lot higher. I expect volatility so it will be a good environment for traders.

#125 cuke and tomato picker on 07.13.20 at 1:10 am

To avoid COVID 19 – DON’T GO TO BARS.

#126 MoMoney on 07.13.20 at 2:17 am

Hey Garth,

Thanks for the post !
By the way, seems to me you’ve meant P/E multiple instead of EPS in the comparison with 2021..

#127 Carlo Haggard on 07.13.20 at 3:21 am

DELETED

#128 belly rubs on 07.13.20 at 3:29 am

The letter from Houston suggested the virus au jour could be lurking at any turn. Our jurisdiction uses contact tracing and testing, and they are getting quite good at it. Anyone exposed, or newly arriving, is advised to self isolate and they do. It’s a cooperative effort. This means we don’t expect to run into the virus. Busy times, events, or potential for crowds require precautions, but I don’t believe there are undetected particles lurking at the corner store. If anything, people are hyper vigilant—everywhere smells clinical. Obviously, if you interact with people and don’t know their getabouts, then you run a risk. So, lay low and slowly expand your sphere among people with a healthy track record. Don’t touch your face with unwashed hands, and if you are exposed to someone from out of town who sprays their words, please wear a mask–we thank you. Likewise, if you just finished two weeks prospecting in the bush, you’re probably good to go, but pack a mask just in case you need to get through doors.

#129 Gravy Train on 07.13.20 at 5:51 am

#123 Ronaldo on 07.13.20 at 12:22 am
“[…] Pretty hard to eat with a mask on.” Um, you wear the mask when the server serves you your food, and then you take it off when they leave. Duh! :P

#130 Steven Rowlandson on 07.13.20 at 6:30 am

You are at risk if you hang around people with diseases.

Schools, homeless shelters and hospitals would be some of the riskiest places to be.

#131 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.13.20 at 7:00 am

#115 Canuck on 07.12.20 at 9:45 pm sez:

“While I appreciate the importance and severity of COVID19, I also see, the more I read, that this just isn’t about science. Take a few minutes to look at a couple of threads from this person’s account, who has been engaged by academics and medical professionals.

https://twitter.com/whelanh1

He’s done the math.. as have other who have contributed to these threads. The charts they post are not conspiracy theories. When will we wake up and get on with life? We’ve had worse pandemics and never shut down economies.”
——————————————————-
Facts don’t matter in a “war” based on feelz. This is because our society has become feminized and irrationally risk averse.

#132 Sky on 07.13.20 at 7:09 am

“SAN ANTONIO – The Texas Division of Emergency Management is advising residents to consider wearing a mask at all times, even in your own home.”

“We still need people to wear the mask out in public, we still need people to keep social distance and isolation…
the one thing I want to try to get across today is we need to do that when we’re in our homes also.”

https://news4sanantonio.com/news/local/tdem-you-should-consider-wearing-a-mask-even-when-youre-in-your-own-home

“AUSTIN, Texas — The Austin city council passed a resolution Thursday allowing for a fine of up to $2,000 for anyone violating a ‘health authority rule’ like not wearing mask.”

https://abc13.com/health/gov-abbott-signals-support-as-austin-weighs-face-mask-fines/6309128/

#133 Shannon Gordon on 07.13.20 at 7:47 am

DELETED, BANNED

You have attempted to post under five names already today. I have banned you at least three times in the past. Get a life. Go away. – Garth

#134 Dharma Bum on 07.13.20 at 7:54 am

#53 Slim

Keep the comments section going! Some of us don’t have a life.
——————————————————————–

Garth, look at it this way:

The blog is the main course.
The comments are dessert.

The blog is foreplay.
The comments are sex.

Please do not deny us blog dogs sex and dessert.
They’re the best part.

Yum yum.

#135 BillyBob on 07.13.20 at 8:44 am

#132 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.13.20 at 7:00 am
#115 Canuck on 07.12.20 at 9:45 pm sez:

“While I appreciate the importance and severity of COVID19, I also see, the more I read, that this just isn’t about science. Take a few minutes to look at a couple of threads from this person’s account, who has been engaged by academics and medical professionals.

https://twitter.com/whelanh1

He’s done the math.. as have other who have contributed to these threads. The charts they post are not conspiracy theories. When will we wake up and get on with life? We’ve had worse pandemics and never shut down economies.”
——————————————————-
Facts don’t matter in a “war” based on feelz. This is because our society has become feminized and irrationally risk averse.

===============================================

The whole “anyone who takes precautions against a highly infectious virus is irrational and feminized” schtick is way beyond old.

Personally I don’t really care what you think, as Smoking Man would say you can’t bend what you can’t offend. I just find extreme, simplistic positions and wilful ignorance to be really, really wearisome.

And characterizing risk management as “irrational” makes you just as extreme as any basement-huddler. I don’t expect you to be self-aware enough to see that though.

I don’t agree with either position, as in most things in life the truth will be found somewhere between them. Erring on the side of caution in the face of a new threat of unknown magnitude is prudent, not “feelz”. If conclusive new data emerges, of course we should alter our management of the threat.

As is happening.

#136 Sail Away on 07.13.20 at 9:12 am

#135 Dharma Bum on 07.13.20 at 7:54 am
#53 Slim

Keep the comments section going! Some of us don’t have a life.

——————-

Garth, look at it this way:

The blog is the main course.
The comments are dessert.

The blog is foreplay.
The comments are sex.

Please do not deny us blog dogs sex and dessert.
They’re the best part.

Yum yum.

——————–

Horrible, horrible analogy. Such images. Stop, I’m begging you.

#137 Job#1 on 07.13.20 at 9:34 am

Rising infection stats in Florida:

Looks to me like they might be cooking the books, not just FLA but other states as well. Have a look around and you decide…

#138 unbalanced on 07.13.20 at 9:42 am

BLATHER REPORT UPDATE……..It appears we have some individuals jockeying for 1st place in the blather report stats. Wouldn’t be me as I have some common sense and half a brain, (unbalanced) ya know.

#139 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.13.20 at 9:47 am

@136 Billy Bob-

Forcing EVERYONE is wear a mask when a) The science has not proven they actually do anything, and b) an infinitesimally small proportion of the population have the virus in the active “infectious” phase at any one time and c) said virus’ death rate is equivalent to a moderately severe flu year is not “rational” risk management.

And we haven’t even talked about all of the other even more draconian restrictions on travel, business etc.

All of this is an EXTREME over-reach.

#140 Trojan House on 07.13.20 at 9:50 am

#105 Hairhead on 07.12.20 at 8:44 pm

First of all, it is not a 1% mortality rate. It is between 0.02 to 0.05%. Second, the worst case scenario prediction which started these whole lockdowns was 2.2 million deaths in the USA. Right, now, at the rate of death that we are experiencing, to reach the worst case scenario prediction in the US would take about 5.5 years.

I’m not sure where you get all the rest of the numbers but you can look up and verify this one: If we don’t end lockdowns soon, up to 210,000,000 people will starve to death long before all those other people will die from any of those things you are talking about.

#141 Gonkman on 07.13.20 at 10:16 am

#29 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.12.20 at 2:28 pm
Irrational Assumption: ICU’s are full….of Covid Patients.

Reality: ICU’s are designed to be routinely run at 70 to 80% capacity as (in the States) if they don’t they won’t make money or (in Canada) it’s not cost effective. These ICU’s are now filling with their normal patients PLUS extra patients from deferred treatments whose conditions got worse PLUS Covid patients.

********************************************

Here in Ottawa. 2 COVID Patients total.. 0 in ICU.

They list the Acute Beds/ICU/ICU on Vent numbers on the OPH Website and they include ALL Patients (Not Just COVID)

https://www.ottawapublichealth.ca/en/reports-research-and-statistics/daily-covid19-dashboard.aspx

Acute Beds at 94%, ICU Beds at 35%, ICU Vent Beds 13% yet there are 0 Covid Patients in ICU.

0 Deaths Since June 24th.
3 New Cases yesterday (Average under 5 a day).

NOW we need Masks and new Mask By-Law come July 15th?

The most annoying thing about MSM or Political Leaders is them saying. “We don’t know what happened but cases spiked recently. We have no idea what caused it.” “It seems the average age of new cases is 31”

Seriously?? You mean the hordes of people in most US Major Cities protesting and/or rioting for BLM?

No… couldn’t be be all that screaming and not socially distancing or wearing masks.

No one had the guts to say it. They blame it on the opening up of the economy and people on the beach/parks which I am sure will cause some spread… but mass protests… this is fine.

#142 mmt on 07.13.20 at 10:17 am

Money is backed by the power to tax. There will never again be a commodity-based currency. Find something else to worry about. – Garth
_________________________________________

so, you advocate Modern Monetary Theory where government can simply print any amount of money for whatever purpose they need, is that correct?

Read my statement.It’s perfectly clear. – Garth

#143 the Jaguar on 07.13.20 at 10:36 am

This is the ‘context’ that is beginning to come out. Looks like another 4-8 weeks and we will have more information.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/genetic-detectives-begin-work-to-trace-spread-of-covid-19-in-canada-1.5020869

I feel confident they will beat any second wave before it gets out of the chute. Science always overcomes fear.

#144 Sail Away on 07.13.20 at 10:37 am

#123 Ronaldo on 07.13.20 at 12:22 am
#112 tbone on 07.12.20 at 9:29 pm

Stage 3 announcement scheduled for tomorrow .
Im hoping for fully open restaurants without masks .
Thats about all i really missed .

—————-

I would think so. Pretty hard to eat with a mask on.

—————-

Aha! Again, the need for my innovative feedbag mask. Ladle in the gruel and enjoy. Mmmmmm!

Coming soon!

#145 BillyBob on 07.13.20 at 11:01 am

#141 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.13.20 at 9:47 am
@136 Billy Bob-

Forcing EVERYONE is wear a mask when a) The science has not proven they actually do anything, and b) an infinitesimally small proportion of the population have the virus in the active “infectious” phase at any one time and c) said virus’ death rate is equivalent to a moderately severe flu year is not “rational” risk management.

And we haven’t even talked about all of the other even more draconian restrictions on travel, business etc.

All of this is an EXTREME over-reach.

=================================================

You do realize your blanket statements are only proving my point, right?

Wearing a mask as a possible way to reduce droplet spread is not required everywhere, all the time. No one is “forced” to wear one in any other sense than if you choose not to wear one, you may not be permitted in certain places. In your own home and your own space, do whatever you want, you rugged libertarian cowboy you.

a. “Science hasn’t proven they actually do anything”. Good grief. That is not the same thing as proving they do nothing! Why is it so inconceivable to you that a physical barrier to physical droplets may be helpful in preventing the spread of physical droplets? No one is claiming it’s a complete solution. I repeat, ad infinitum, it’s about management, not elimination. When a potential mitigation is as cheap and easy as a simple mask, it boggles the mind that there are those who fight it so vehemently against them. The risk/reward equation is so skewed towards wearing them that I have difficulty respecting those trying to attack them on the basis that “science hasn’t proven they do anything”.

b. a meaningless statement without context of geography and testing.

c. the whole “it’s less than the flu” trope has been debunked to death such that it’s hardly worth debating if you haven’t grasped it by now. The sentiment is asinine because again – it depends. There are no small amount of people for whom it is very much more than “risk of the flu”. Not sure if you understand how infectious diseases work?

As far as “draconian” measures, how exactly do propose to contain a pandemic? Of course there will be overreach in the beginning stages, that’s completely necessary and normal in the face of a new unknown threat. I believe I mentioned that the approach should be modified as the threat evolves.

Do you not see any difference in the world between today and April?

#146 Looking up on 07.13.20 at 11:06 am

#142 Trojan House on 07.13.20 at 9:50 am

—————-

Your information is wrong. The global mortality rate for Covid 19 is about 4.4 percent.

#147 Genesis II on 07.13.20 at 11:19 am

DELETED

#148 Sail Away on 07.13.20 at 11:31 am

TSLA – 20 bagger! I know you all want to hear it.

Faron, sorry, I didn’t take your advice to sell.

#149 Do we have all the facts on 07.13.20 at 11:34 am

We still have no idea how many deaths in Canada over the past 126 days were actual caused by the Covid 19 virus.

What we do know is that in the 126 days since the first death attributed to the Covid 19 virus was reported over 100,000 Canadians were projected to die from all causes.

The decision to add UO7.1 Covid 19 to the universal Classification of Diseases in 2020 enabled the world to focus on the number of deaths where the Covid 19 virus was the primary cause of death “or” where the Covid 19 virus was “suspected of contributing” to a death caused by a serious pre-existing condition.

Over 7,100 of the 8,785 deaths recorded under UO7.1 in Canada originated in a long term care facility. Nearly every one of the 235,000 residents in a long term care facility in Canada had at least one serious pre-existing condition.

It is not callous to seek a clarification of the number of deaths where the Covid 19 virus was the actual cause of death and the number of deaths where the Covid 19 virus may have contributed to a death caused by a serious pre-existing condition.

The average age of the 235,000 residents of long term care facilities in Canada is 86 years and the average mortality rate of this population group exceeds 90 deaths per 1,000 residents.

What this means is that in the 126 days since the first Covid 19 death was recorded in Canada a minimum of 7,300 deaths would have been anticipated in Canadian long term care facilities if the Covid 19 virus had never existed.

Given the extremely serious consequences of measures taken to reduce the impact of the Covid 19 virus in Canada it would seem prudent, certainly not callous, to present Canadian citizens with an accurate assessment of the risk of death that the Covid 19 virus presents.

After all the world wide reaction to the Covid 19 virus was triggered by statements that the virus would claim millions of lives over and above normal mortality rates.

Where is the professional analysis of the net impact of the Covid 19 virus on established mortality rates in Canada?

#150 Ramshackle on 07.13.20 at 11:36 am

The callousness with which people on this blog, mostly right-winger Trump-lovers, treat the deaths and suffering of others is remarkable. We have fallen. – Garth

Mr. Turner, please do not let the great unwashed get to you. You are providing a service of great worth to many of us in operating your blog. Especially in troubling times such as this.

On behalf of many who post and many many more who lurk here, THANK YOU Mr. Turner!

#151 Job#1 on 07.13.20 at 12:05 pm

Garth, …the link I posted?

Tough. – Garth

#152 Faron on 07.13.20 at 12:07 pm

#143 Ramshackle on 07.13.20 at 11:36 am

“On behalf of many who post and many many more who
lurk here, THANK YOU Mr. Turner!”

I second that. Hear! hear!

MSU: This forum is a rarefied space in which an extremely skilled and competent person (Garth) whose time should be considered a rare commodity, Is willing to wade through everyone’s garbage to maintain a diverse set of ideas and opinions and allow them to be pinned below that person’s (Garth and the suspender snappers) own thoughts, ideas and opinions. The more garbage we spew, the smaller that pool of will becomes. And, once again, the tragedy of the commons will unfold.

Finally, Garth, you may set my quota as you wish, but I ask that it be no higher than two per day in the name of your and my potentially wasted time.

Thanks.

#153 Ace Goodheart on 07.13.20 at 12:12 pm

RE: #144 mmt on 07.13.20 at 10:17 am

Money is backed by the power to tax. There will never again be a commodity-based currency. Find something else to worry about. – Garth
_________________________________________

so, you advocate Modern Monetary Theory where government can simply print any amount of money for whatever purpose they need, is that correct?

Read my statement.It’s perfectly clear. – Garth

////////////////////////////////

The value of a currency is linked to the country’s financial numbers.

It is similar to the value of a person’s ability to borrow.

Ie, if you can show that you have the ability to pay a certain amount of debt and interest every year, you can borrow a certain amount.

For a currency, you look at the various financial indicators of the country, to determine how much the government can collect in tax to service the debt.

Sometimes, as in the situation that recently took place in Greece, it becomes obvious that the government cannot collect enough taxes to service the debt. In that case, the government usually just prints enough money to pay down the debt, in its own currency, and allows its currency to be devalued, by whatever amount is necessary in order to balance things out. Greece of course chose not to do that, as it would have meant abandoning the Euro, which is really the only thing that keeps the country solvent right now (ie, they could go back to printing Drachma, but it would be worthless toilet paper money that you could not give away).

What is concerning about what the Canadian government has done, is not that they have borrowed too much, or that their currency is not valued based on a physical object (like Gold for example).

What is concerning is that our government is now borrowing directly from our Central bank. So the Bank of Canada “creates” Canadian dollars, “loans” them to the government, at interest, and the government then gives this money, for free, to Canadian citizens.

This is basically flooding the market with Canadian dollars.

What seems to be happening, due to COVID, is that most, if not all, of this money is being spent domestically, which means that much of it just goes right back to the government again in taxes and fees and surcharges and the like.

The big concern would be if these Canadian dollars were flowing out of the country. If they are just being spent by Canadians here, then it might make sense to increase the money supply like this, as we are not really increasing Federal debt (because the government owes the money to its own Central bank).

We are kind of playing a little trick with the way we are doing this.

#154 Sail Away on 07.13.20 at 12:27 pm

I request a quota of 12. It’ll be tough cutting down to that, but probably achievable.

#155 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.13.20 at 12:51 pm

#154 Faron rambles on 07.13.20 at 12:07 pm

….

Finally, Garth, you may set my quota as you wish, but I ask that it be no higher than two per day in the name of your and my potentially wasted time.

Thanks.

——

Says Faron after his fifth post…

#156 Ronaldo on 07.13.20 at 1:09 pm

#146 Sail Away on 07.13.20 at 10:37 am
#123 Ronaldo on 07.13.20 at 12:22 am
#112 tbone on 07.12.20 at 9:29 pm

Stage 3 announcement scheduled for tomorrow .
Im hoping for fully open restaurants without masks .
Thats about all i really missed .

—————-

I would think so. Pretty hard to eat with a mask on.

—————-

Aha! Again, the need for my innovative feedbag mask. Ladle in the gruel and enjoy. Mmmmmm!

Coming soon!
————————————————————–
It’s here Sail Away, it’s here. The human feedbag. Finally we can go out and enjoy and nice meal at our favorite restaurant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw_1CIwwEIA

#157 Suburban coyote and pup on 07.13.20 at 1:17 pm

To Do we have all the facts #151
Thank you for all of your logical and well written posts. It gives me hope that there are others out there questioning the hyperbole and ever shifting narratives from MSM and governments.

#158 Useless on 07.13.20 at 1:20 pm

Garth do you think inflation will run away at some point? Low interests rates forever…it seems as though the government will inflate the debt away and everyone should have borrowed as much as possible. I think once the economy begins to recover you will see house price increases like 2017.

#159 Stan Brooks on 07.13.20 at 1:24 pm

Federal wage subsidy to be extended to December, Trudeau says

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-press-newsalert-federal-wage-154127364.html

Socks boy spending money we don’t have. The biggest ‘stimulus’ program per GDP from all countries in the world.

Why when we are ‘rich’/’wealthy’/G7/country/ whatever bull-crap you can come up with?

In the meantime socks boy is giving 900 millions of tax payers money to a ‘charity’ that his mom and bro are getting ‘speakers’ fee from. And he is (sincerely) ‘sorry’. That’s it folks, he will get approval rating of 80 % +. Try that when CRA comes for ‘their’ taxes/subject to interpretations and unclear rules like ‘reasonable expenses’.

Whatever is reasonable for socks boy and the french villa guy is surely unreasonable for you.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-covid19-canada-latest-updates-190048955.html

Only in this mental institution.

Enjoy his ‘wisdom’ folks.

Cheers,

#160 akashic record on 07.13.20 at 1:35 pm

#144 mmt

Money is backed by the power to tax. There will never again be a commodity-based currency. Find something else to worry about. – Garth

Commodity based money can put restriction on the amount of money issued.

“Power to tax”-based money does not have this restriction.

When tax payers want control, they can go pond sand and advised free of charge to “find something else to worry about”.

It’s perfectly clear.

There is lot you can do in your life to make it better. Changing the monetary system is not one of them. And, yes, we will never see a currency backed by a commodity. – Garth

#161 Stone on 07.13.20 at 2:22 pm

#156 Sail Away on 07.13.20 at 12:27 pm
I request a quota of 12. It’ll be tough cutting down to that, but probably achievable.

———

I request a quota of 0 on your behalf for 1 week from Garth. If/When you come back, let us all know when the tremors stopped. I think cold turkey is the only way for you.

#162 IGV on 07.13.20 at 2:55 pm

Totally love this post today Garth.

Reminds me that fundamentals don’t matter anymore.

Employment numbers. Earnings. Business forecasts. Even actual business models are irrelevant.

Confirms we are one day closer to the reset.

You will die waiting for it. – Garth

#163 Sail Away on 07.13.20 at 3:03 pm

#158 Ronaldo on 07.13.20 at 1:09 pm
#146 Sail Away on 07.13.20 at 10:37 am

Aha! Again, the need for my innovative feedbag mask. Ladle in the gruel and enjoy. Mmmmmm!

Coming soon!

—————

It’s here Sail Away, it’s here. The human feedbag. Finally we can go out and enjoy and nice meal at our favorite restaurant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw_1CIwwEIA

—————

Wow. Efficient AND classy!

#164 Stan Brooks on 07.13.20 at 3:09 pm

Confirms we are one day closer to the reset.
You will die waiting for it. – Garth

IMHO we are already in it. Just the sheeple does not see it yet, which is normal. When the smoke clears and it/the sheeple is left hungry in the cold, it will become suddenly evident and logical but it will be too late/same old over and over.

Here it is from IMF:

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/06/03/sp060320-remarks-to-world-economic-forum-the-great-reset

Cheers,

#165 akashic record on 07.13.20 at 3:10 pm

#162 akashic record on 07.13.20 at 1:35 pm

There is lot you can do in your life to make it better. Changing the monetary system is not one of them. And, yes, we will never see a currency backed by a commodity. – Garth

Who cares if the currency is commodity based or not.

The issue is whether the public, which pays the tax that backs the existence of the currency, has any say, any control over it.

You state it is none of the tax payers business. A weird declaration. Considering that in other areas of making life better the general rule of thumb is “he who pays the piper calls the tune”.

Strangely, it is not supposed to apply to money itself.

#166 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 07.13.20 at 3:13 pm

DELETED

#167 Colin on 07.13.20 at 4:34 pm

Does anyone ever get tired of the “panic paddlers” and “moral narcissists” in media, politics and public health pushing their “sky is falling” alarm bells? They remind me of the climate change fatalists and BLM thugs (my bet is that they are all the same people with a common and primary interest in pushing socialism while hiding behind inflated and “engineered” causes).

Thank God there is a leader with the intelligence, spine and composure of President Trump to slice through the pseudo events being spun out there. It’s too bad our feckless “woke-obsessed” PM is too ignorant and cowardly to tear a few pages from the Trump play-book.

This is utterly political, useless, inflammatory and divisive. Post in the spirit of this blog or be gone. I am losing my patience with all of you. – Garth

#168 Idiocy on 07.13.20 at 6:35 pm

to comment # 95 MF

You just contradicted your original comment that “It was easy…” by writing a paragraph describing the work and time commitment involved in getting those better returns.

In your own post you have demonstrated that it was not “easy”.

Are you always this obtuse ?

#169 Some good comments on 07.13.20 at 7:49 pm

Sorry a small correction to my post I said many moons ago we had a discussion on cash…. then I said most people use cash or credit. I meant to say debit and credit.

To 151 do we have all the facts.
You should look up the statistics on how many people died of the flu during Covid. When I looked up BC numbers almost zero.
To 155 Ace Good heart. I wrote the same thing a few weeks ago, the BOC is making a journal entry on the books and creating money out of thin air. It’s totally weird. Even during the second war the government borrowed money from the people with victory bonds, and England borrowed from the US and I believe in 1995 they paid off the last war time bond.
Maybe the bank will float all the debt into the market but it sure makes for weird accounting.
Thanks again Garth
Hang onto your hat it’s a wild ride of comments today.

#170 Joe on 07.14.20 at 12:46 am

Hi Garth. Thanks for your great blog. Please keep writing! I never read the comments because I don’t care what anyone else thinks. Maybe you should turn off the comments! Keep up the awesome posts!

#171 Shaggy Lane on 07.14.20 at 3:26 am

RE: 134 …. Well, actually…I have a life…it consists of straightening out bent nails. I’m not not posting for your few respondents. I’m influencing you,by bothering you, and every other Canadian ‘mouthpiece’ who refuses to stand up for Canada. Don’t assume you’re that important. It takes three seconds a day to keep my words alive in your head. Did I drop 15 seconds on you yesterday, even better.

#172 Concerned Reader on 07.14.20 at 8:24 am

Dear Mr. Turner, I second getting rid of the comments if it saves the blog. Thanks so much for writing it and I hope you still have fun doing it.

#173 G on 07.14.20 at 8:03 pm

For the people that might be interested.
It reinforced why I wear an N95 mask to go shopping.
From MedCram 27min. Some may also find some of the comments below the YouTube interesting. I keep telling myself, so not to panic, most people do recover and they have found treatments that seem to help if very sick.

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 95: Widespread Clotting on Autopsy; New COVID-19 Prognostic Data
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPDVzt79UMU