Face-melter

DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

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Every once in a while, usually accidentally, Donald Trump makes perfect sense.

Trump so regularly says and does things that are callous and self-serving that it’s easy to reflexively dismiss him, but when he tweeted in reference to the coronavirus crisis that “we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself”, I was, after some consideration, in full agreement.

Oddly, his tweet reminded me of Brad Pitt’s casino speech from The Big Short. Pitt, who plays a character loosely based on a former Wall Street trader who bet big against the US housing market during the financial crisis, reprimands two of his young protégés who are enthusiastically cheering for the downfall of the US economy. Says Pitt’s character: “If we’re right, people lose jobs, people lose homes, people lose retirement savings, people lose pensions…. Here’s a number: for every 1% that unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die.”

Now, I don’t actually know if those numbers are accurate, but they certainly sound reasonable in light of the poverty, despair, homelessness and loss of health care insurance that accompanies every severe economic downturn. However, the point is this: economic hardship costs lives also.

Has the US reopened its economy in a prudent and systematic manner? Of course not. Has the President contributed to the US’s divisiveness and the spike in new cases? Of course he has. But at the same time, can the US economy remain in lock-down indefinitely? Absolutely not.

As we become fixated on the rise in new cases and the number of deaths, consider the troubling numbers on the other side of the ledger. Bankruptcies are skyrocketing, and will soon rival—and likely surpass—the levels seen during the 2008–09 financial crisis. The list of prominent corporations that have filed for Chapter 11 protection grows every week. Thus far, it’s become a who’s who of the oil & gas and consumer discretionary sectors (recently Chesapeake Energy and Neiman Marcus, for example), but these sectors are likely just the canaries in the coal mine.

Bankruptcies will inevitably spread widely across all industries.

And while we cheer the rise of technology stocks and the nearly full recovery of the S&P 500 in recent months, consider the flip side: the still-massive decline of the S&P 500 Banking Index. And this is no minor index. It contains all of the largest financial institutions in the US—JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, US Bancorp and Citigroup to name but a few.

We also know that these banks didn’t fare particularly well in the US Federal Reserve’s recent stress tests, which resulted in the Fed suspending dividends and share buybacks for the entire group. The stress tests were followed immediately by a Wells Fargo dividend cut with almost certainly more to come (the options market suggests that the top seven banks will cut their dividends by at least 30% in the coming year).

And the failure of the US banking sector to participate in any meaningful way in the overall recovery of the US equity market should be concerning to all of us. If you need the perfect example of a ‘red flag’, this might be it:

Y-t-d performance disparity between the S&P 500 Banking Index (white line) and the Nasdaq (yellow) and S&P 500 (orange)

Source: Bloomberg

A recent article in The Atlantic nicely summarizes the dangers faced by the US banking sector as well as the dangers of focusing solely on our health at the expense of the economy:

…health risks and economic risks must be considered together. In calculating the risks of reopening the economy, we must understand the true costs of remaining closed. At some point, they will become more than the country can bear.

The financial sector isn’t like other sectors. If it fails, fundamental aspects of modern life could fail with it. We could lose the ability to get loans to buy a house or car, or to pay for college. Without reliable credit, many Americans might struggle to pay for their daily needs. This is why, in 2008, then–Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson went so far as to get down on one knee to beg Nancy Pelosi for her help sparing the system. He understood the alternative.

So, as much as some might worship Dr. Fauci or brand those who reopen their businesses (or solicit these businesses) as fools, locking ourselves in our basements for the next year is also not a solution. A middle ground is required.

I believe that the US will eventually achieve a successful balance of a reopened economy and a controlled infection rate—it is, after all, the wealthiest and most powerful nation in the world. But achieving this balance is by no means a certainty.

The global economy is also fragile and probably can’t handle another major crisis. What a second crisis might look like is, of course, unknown. It could be something familiar and foreseeable, such as a further escalation of the US’s trade war with China or a second wave of coronavirus. But it might also come from out of left field. Deutsche Bank, incredibly, has actually cited volcanic eruptions and solar flares as cause for concern. (True story. You can read about it here.)

But, again, the point is this: there are ample and unforeseeable risks facing the US and world economies at the moment. And risks, by the way, are almost always unforeseeable. Was a crippling global pandemic on your radar back in January? While we can’t know the extent of America’s insistence on civil liberties over basic common sense, predict future trade relations with China or anticipate acts of God, what we can do is control our own portfolios.

What this means is having a mix of many asset classes, across many geographies and across many sectors. Balance and diversification. Defense and offense. Safety and growth.

If the world works out as we hope, you’ll still benefit greatly by owning a balanced portfolio. However, if solar flares shoot from Trump’s eyes and volcanos erupt behind him melting people’s faces like Major Toht from Raiders of the Lost Ark and cause markets to take another nosedive, your portfolio will still be ready and your downside significantly minimized.

And don’t laugh. Anything’s possible this year.

Easing the pain: hypothetical balanced portfolio (green line) vs Cdn equity market (blue line) during past bear markets

Click to enlarge. Source: Ontario Securities Commission. Sample balanced portfolio (50% Canadian bonds, 16% Canadian equities, 18% US equities and 16% international equities) versus 100% Canadian equities. Total return. 
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Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

185 comments ↓

#1 Ace Goodheart on 07.11.20 at 10:27 am

Re: “Me to We” comments:

I wonder about several things here:

Did the Trudeau government give taxpayer money to “We” during years when “We” paid Trudeau family members as speakers?

If so, were the speaking engagement fees kick backs?

Ie: Did Trudeau family members receive tax payer money as a kick back in exchange for Liberal government financial support of “We”?

Would anyone actually pay to hear Trudeau family members speak?

Who has ever heard of Trudeau’s family members? Other than his wife, did anyone even know these people existed?

Does Trudeau’s mother regularly get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars as a speaker? Or just for “We” events?

To me, the speaker fees look a lot like a kick back arrangement.

I may be wrong. But this should be investigated

#2 Mauro Rizzardo on 07.11.20 at 10:31 am

The last time I checked every Canadian Covid-19 death has cost taxpayers 38 million dollars!

#3 Exilled on 07.11.20 at 10:42 am

Mr Doug Rowat:

Could you please recolour the final graphs. I’m colour Blind as is a good proportion of the male species. And thank you for all that you and the team do for us.

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.11.20 at 10:43 am

Yep,
We cant shut down the country indefinitely.

I commented to a co worker back in March when this all started that Trudeau was handing out CERB too soon.
He should have waited a few weeks to let people know that “free” money wasnt immediately raining from the skies…make people sweat a bit before starting the handouts instead of immediately shovelling cash out the door.
It sends the wrong signal. Gubmint always to the rescue

“People NEED that money!”
“Well, what happens in the winter if the govt is broke and round two cranks up? People need to realize THEY need to take financial responsibility for their own future. What happens the next time and the time after that? The govt isnt always going to be there to bail everyone out. Its unsustainable.”

#5 Ace Goodheart on 07.11.20 at 10:50 am

On this blog yesterday, a person posted to the effect that if people like me, who have second residences in places like Muskoka, go to their residences, they and their families and children do so at risk of physical assault, damage to their property, and “micro chip” tracking of their vehicles.

Yesterday in Toronto a person decided to film a portion of a street where other people were enjoying time on an out door patio. He was physically assaulted and his cell phone camera was damaged.

I am now required to force my two year old to wear a face mask when he goes to pre school. He will be forcibly ejected from the facility, and banned from returning, and I will be called to immediately pick him up, if he takes the mask off.

We have broken society.

There is no way to fix it.

We are now a bunch of violent, intolerant vigilantes he’ll bent on preserving ourselves by attacking everyone else’s freedoms.

#6 haylor_taylor on 07.11.20 at 10:53 am

Anyone want to share (simple) portfolios?

I set-it-and-forget it with 40% ZAG, 40% XAW and 20% VCN, re-balancing at least twice a year.

I keep looking if there’s a better option for the small-pile crowd, but nothing I’ve seen so far seems worth the extra effort.

#7 if you can't tell on 07.11.20 at 11:15 am

i don’t see an issue. the FED and other central banks will just print more money. isn’t that the solution to every problem??

…like instead of putting bankers in Jail for the 2008 disaster? or corporate executives in Jail for borrowing money to buy stock bank and pay themselves big bonuses, while leaving their companies financially bankrupt? …

#8 KNOW IT ALL on 07.11.20 at 11:19 am

CASH IS KING!

MAKE sure you have a STOCKPILE ready.

This DISEASE is causing people to LOSE THEIR LIMBS AND THEIR LUNGS.

IF your not a MEDICAL PROFESSIONAL don’t downplay this.

#9 Rocuronium on 07.11.20 at 11:21 am

haylor_taylor:
My/spouse portfolio with 200K:
25% VSB
15% CPD
18% VCN
2% ZRE
40% VXC

I started with 3, then added CPD and the REIT.

#10 YouKnowWho on 07.11.20 at 11:24 am

Yes, I saw it coming. Cancelled my vacation for 3rd week of January. Then watched people travel for March Break 2 months later to spots that bring people of many nations to mingle.

Went to Center Island few days back. Lined up for ferry and girl behind me complained that she got bit on the plane yesterday. I thought…yesterday? Where did you come from? Germany. And here you are in line with 200 people getting onto a confined ferry?

So when such things are possible, such exceptions allowed, so tell me again how a mask helps. Can’t have it both ways. Can’t have these exceptions to some. At that point, might as well just toss it up and let it run.

#11 Don Guillermo on 07.11.20 at 11:30 am

NDP member Marlin Schmidt speaking in the Alberta legislature the other day.

“Just let me say I am no fan of Margaret Thatcher.” Fine and dandy.

“If nothing else goes right for me in a day, I can at least count on enjoying the fact that Margaret Thatcher is still dead.”

“The only thing I regret about Margaret Thatcher’s death is that it happened probably 30 years too late.”

This from a self described progressive political party member with crickets coming from the NDP leader Notley.

#12 NSNG on 07.11.20 at 11:37 am

Apparently, one of the new fads among the kids is electric bikes. I’m starting to see them more and more everywhere (even the homeless people are driving them. It beats me how they charge them. Maybe charging stations). I was wondering how they became so popular all of a sudden. Then I realized…..CERB

#13 YouKnowWho on 07.11.20 at 11:39 am

#1 Ace Goodheart

Oh stop it. Every president gets million dollar speeches to clean his bribes after he leaves office and no one says a thing about it. Book deals for tens of millions. We’re complacent and politicians know it. Here is some CERB, pacify yourselves.

Super PACs? I mean…WOW!

President of NFL gets $40m annual salary. President of the “Free World” gets what…$425,000? Think about that.

The perversions are so significant, is there any wonder that the moral authority to export “democracy” have been received with such resistance in the world?

Tears for Fears Mad World? Yeah. That’s the song.

#14 TurnerNation on 07.11.20 at 11:54 am

Circling back to yesterday’s comments – who is insane, me or them? Yesterday I was TRYING to enjoy a nice sunny patio in the 705 area code but the table near me was talking about the CV score. The numbers in for… wait for it…Quatar. A place I cannot even pin on a map. UAE I think. Really? A beautiful sunny patio day we got good food, beer and they are polluting the air talking about testing rates? What is wrong with people.
Then the server came by to collect Contact Tracing information.
Just another day in the New System, the new world order.

By the way collecting contact tracing info by paper seems so old school and backward right? Tracking bracelets are being tested today. (Don’t leave home without it). GOOG, AAPL wasted no time in a tracking apps too.

https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2020/07/02/facedrive-s-covid-19-tracescan-app-receives-support-of-ontario-government

Facedrive’s COVID-19 TraceSCAN App Receives Support of Ontario Government
Facedrive is confident that TraceSCAN increases the reach of the government’s “COVID Alert” systems to at-risk demographics who may not carry smart phones – such as senior citizens, children, and low-income individuals. According to Statista.com, more than 16% of Canadians don’t have smartphones — making TraceSCAN’s wearable technology potentially valuable in the fight against COVID-19 for construction workers, healthcare professionals, farmers and other industry professionals for whom carrying a smartphone presents clear challenges.

——– Here’s more predictive programming from my “news” feed yesterday:
“In particular, the committee was told that “better diagnostic testing and contact tracing are required for effective containment of new cases.””

—- A sucessful small business owner told me Hunger Games movie is the goal. He expects to be forced out of business too. Where’d he get that from?
Masked genderless workerbees staring at their tracking devices aka smart phones – comply or else. We are in the
Compliance phase at the moment.

#15 YouKnowWho on 07.11.20 at 11:57 am

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz

Dude…you just noticed this? Are you new on the planet?

What is Garth talking about all the time? How working harder and smarter doesn’t pay off because they tax you more for your hard work. You earn more – give us more!

You married? That marriage license probably costs you $20k a year. Little piece of paper. Who’s the fool – you for leading a “clean life” or the guy living with two amazons enjoying the mange – marriage license free? Gay marriage – I wonder why they wanted it to be honest.

Latch onto the government teat already and suckle darn it!

You look at those suckling and wonder – how could they?
They look at you and wonder – why do you bother? Come suckle!

You can have Rogers full internet and phone for $15 a month in a government housing building you silly fool! I think even with TV channels!

#16 Cheekmonster on 07.11.20 at 12:00 pm

Has the Left also contributed to the US’s divisiveness and the spike in new cases? Of course they have!

#17 Gold ETF on 07.11.20 at 12:09 pm

Thank you for the post today Doug
I am worried about Canadian Banks, while not failing but huge stress, like deferred mortgages as pointed out yesterday and huge bankruptcies today. I bought ZEB and ZWB. Anyway let’s cross our fingers the dividends keep flowing.
I have a question, I know Garth does not like gold and I am pretty sure it’s bullion. But in a diversified portfolio for your clients do you have a percentage in Gold ETFs? I know Larry Berman Recommends two or three Like ZGD and ZJG and ZMT.
Thanks

#18 Sail Away on 07.11.20 at 12:20 pm

#137 BillyBob on 07.11.20 at 7:37 am
#36 Sail Away on 07.10.20 at 2:57 pm

I always feel so left out when the topics are mortgages, renters and debt. Sigh…

——————-

I hear ya man.

If you save and invest hard with a mindset that life may not always be rainbows and unicorns it really is possible to survive a lot of rainy days.

Or a super typhoon in this case.

——————

Yes. I would add that one should work as hard at investing as any other job. In my case, after deciding to go self-directed, I spent around a full year studying, researching, and tracking before doing anything, and continue to read and learn as much as possible. Any term or procedure I don’t understand gets researched in great detail. Buffett, Graham, Dodd, Thorp, Munger… many books read and indexed, I often recheck them.

And now? Two 30-baggers so far: SOM.L and APT, several 5-8 baggers, and I believe TSLA may end up being my KO (Buffett ref). Somero and Tesla within my circle of competence, APT not so much.

Interestingly, Munger started a separate financial firm in his mid-40’s while partner in a law firm. Buffett turned a textile company into his vehicle. Both interesting options.

Learn, then act. Powerful combination. Oh, and ignore emotion.

#19 Brian Ripley on 07.11.20 at 12:24 pm

“If we’re right, people lose jobs, people lose homes, people lose retirement savings, people lose pensions…” Brad Pitt via Doug

My charts with June data are up for:
the Plunge-O-Meter
http://www.chpc.biz/plunge-o-meter.html
and Employment Rates
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html#Rate

Notice that in the Employment Rate section of that page I include a table of data from StatCan showing the Y/Y change in employment sectors (public-private-professional, goods and service etal) and every sector is negative except for one… the FIRE sector.

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing is doing just fine… that’s the Canadian economy in June.

The StatCan text on the June employment data includes this:

Less than 1 in 4 of those working at a location other than home had a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared with 6 in 10 of those who worked from home.

Going forward, invest in your education and work from home.

#20 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.11.20 at 12:24 pm

Good post Doug. Just one problem. To The Fearful it is ONLY about The Virus 24/7/365. There is nothing else.

Unfortunately for us Normies it appears they outnumber us by about 2:1. Therefore “The Cure” will continue until the patient is dead.

Garth how’s bout a poll?

#21 HugeBeast on 07.11.20 at 12:26 pm

I am avoiding spending money at small businesses. It makes me laugh and smile and I am happy they aren’t getting my money Let them whine and moan and live off govt handouts

#22 MF on 07.11.20 at 12:32 pm

5 Ace Goodheart on 07.11.20 at 10:50

We are a bunch of “violent vigilantes”?

Hyperbole much? Actually, not even hyperbole, straight up bull crap.

We get it. You are upset about wearing a mask and being responsible. No one else is excited about this, but if the mask reduces the transmission even by 1%, then it’s worth it if we can get our economy up and running faster and stronger.

That’s why people are wearing masks. Not because of some societal flaw that you erroneously believe.

MF

#23 forgotmyusername on 07.11.20 at 12:33 pm

Hey Doug,

Thanks for a balanced & useful guest column.

No, society and economies cannot shut down forever!! Life is complicated. Inevitably, living includes risks, of various degrees.

I saw a US news article the other day, from some ‘don’t-re-open-schools’ faction. The click bait headline screamed “I don’t want to die!”

Is that what all this is about? “I don’t want to die?”

Newsflash, cupcakes. EVERYONE DIES. Full stop, period. There is no escape from dying. Nothing you can do will spare you that eventual fate.

And Doug is absolutely right to remind readers that economic hardships cause death too. Big time.

So gather your courage. Build a good life. Take responsibility for your own well-being. Sustain strong countries. Maintain functional economies. All while understanding that, in the end, we all die.

Sheesh. It’s so basic and yet somehow people missed that memo!

#24 Stoph on 07.11.20 at 12:36 pm

#6 haylor_taylor on 07.11.20 at 10:53 am

Anyone want to share (simple) portfolios?

I set-it-and-forget it with 40% ZAG, 40% XAW and 20% VCN, re-balancing at least twice a year.

I keep looking if there’s a better option for the small-pile crowd, but nothing I’ve seen so far seems worth the extra effort.

—————————————————————–

Here’s a blog post from a few years back describing portfolio weightings. No specific ETFs, but those are easy to find.

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/05/15/the-millennial-portfolio/

#25 haylor_taylor on 07.11.20 at 12:39 pm

#9 Rocuronium

My/spouse portfolio with 200K:
25% VSB
15% CPD
18% VCN
2% ZRE
40% VXC

—————————–

Thanks for sharing! Check out this comparison:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2005&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=2&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=ZAG.TO&allocation1_1=40&allocation1_3=40&symbol2=XAW.TO&allocation2_1=40&symbol3=VCN.TO&allocation3_1=20&allocation3_2=18&symbol4=VCB.TO&allocation4_2=25&symbol5=CPD.TO&allocation5_2=15&symbol6=ZRE.TO&allocation6_2=2&allocation6_3=5&symbol7=VXC.TO&allocation7_2=40&symbol8=XPF.TO&allocation8_3=10&symbol9=XIC.TO&allocation9_3=10&symbol10=VUN.TO&allocation10_3=20&symbol11=XEF.TO&allocation11_3=10&symbol12=XEC.TO&allocation12_3=5

(I’d hyperlink it if I knew how). The third portfolio is my attempt from a couple years ago to glean the wisdom of Turner Investments through comments Garth let fall over the years.

My take-away is that simple rules. Maybe this is b/c of the time period? If you can sub in something equivalent for VCB we might see more…

#26 ain't life rand on 07.11.20 at 12:40 pm

@#14 TurnerNation on 07.11.20 at 11:54 am
Circling back to yesterday’s comments – who is insane, me or them?

you are, no question. lol.

#27 Row Bear on 07.11.20 at 12:44 pm

#11 Guillermo

Do you remember that the BBC had to take measures to prevent Ding Dong the Witch is Dead from becoming the number one song in the UK in 2013?

#28 MF on 07.11.20 at 12:46 pm

18 Sail Away on 07.11.20 at 12:20

You spent a whole year learning how to invest? These days it’s pretty easy. Some stock and bond etf’s divided into percentages. 1x/year rebalance. Investing is one of these weird things where the more you know the worse you usually do.

What you describe with stock picking is different. That’s speculating and gambling. Pretty easy to for the last 12 years during the manipulated bull market so I wouldn’t be so smug. Every stock has almost the same chart pattern post 2008 since bond prices have been manipulated beyond recognition. In the past, when bond prices were allowed to function normally, you, myself, and 99.9% of all retail investors would have been obliterated in the blink of an eye.

MF

#29 TurnerNation on 07.11.20 at 12:48 pm

#5 Ace Goodheart. I’ve been posting here for almost three months that all Compassion has been removed in the New System.
Serious suggestion. Write the word HOAX onto mask for daycare. Make a statement. And they will not be able to remove that mask yes.

#30 Flop... on 07.11.20 at 12:49 pm

Construction workers were deemed essential, so I continued to go to work.

For 3 months earlier in the year, I worked on an extensive renovation on a Westside detached.

Masks were a common sight.

The main company had a sign-in book, in case someone was found to be sick later on, and door knobs were sanitized daily.

Daily conversations on how to keep everyone safe, including distancing protocol.

Now I am working on a different house, in a more densely packed part of town.

No masks.

No signs.

No mention of a virus.

The unrealistic deadlines and associated stress are the real killers…

M46BC

#31 Devil Anse on 07.11.20 at 12:53 pm

Mauro Rizzardo on 07.11.20 at 10:31 am
The last time I checked every Canadian Covid-19 death has cost taxpayers 38 million dollars!

—————————————-

We actually do not know what the long term affects of COVID are. Speaking to a friend in the UK recently who had it, he told me three months later and he still feels it (45 years old and healthier lifestyle than most). He has colleagues suffering from COVID sequelae- lung fibrosis, heart problems. We still don’t know enough to be so flippant.

See:
Persistent Symptoms in Patients After Acute COVID-19

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768351

#32 mike from mtl on 07.11.20 at 1:03 pm

Well you can thank the FAANG group for the sp500 not flatlining as every other index.

Blind application of the CCP/WHO lockdowns will prove to be the stupidest actions since the war. And no small part to the media in most everywhere doing a bang up job instilling fear and mistrust – unless that was the goal?

It is quite disheartening reading comments by fellow Canadians who support closing not only the national border but provincial, even down to specific areas.

Waiting for a vaccine is unrealistic, could be years if ever. Waiting for zero cases and deaths is unrealistic. Do we track every heart attack, car crash, suicide, cancer, flu on a daily basis? But in the mean time what are we supposed to do?

Yes this is far worse than 9/11 or 08 financial crisis – the mass bankruptcies are at bay, for now.

#33 Flop... on 07.11.20 at 1:04 pm

Generally, I like being alive.

Which is why I won’t be dragging Mrs Flop off to buy any of these dire properties in Australia, available for under a hundred grand.

I paid 54k for my house way back in the mid 90’s and it was a nice red brick number with aluminum windows.

I’ll stay renting in Vancouver for the foreseeable future.

Any day above ground is a good day…

M46BC

https://www.domain.com.au/news/the-properties-that-100000-can-buy-you-around-the-country-964775/?utm_campaign=strap-masthead&utm_source=acm&utm_medium=link&utm_content=pos5

#34 FreeBird on 07.11.20 at 1:15 pm

Deutsche Bank also fined $150M. Look up why.

#35 Camille on 07.11.20 at 1:19 pm

Interesting post, thank you. Please clarify (if I’m correct), bank dividends are not “suspended”, but rather capped.
End graphs are interesting but note only assets performing to date this year, more or less, are treasury bonds, gold, gold miners, and gold derivatives. Interest rates are near zero, so this time may be different. There’s so little gas left in the interest rate tank!
Dividends are important because without them there’s no great reason to hold banks. But low rates make banks utilities. Fintech and slow Cdn gov’t bank adoption of Fintech helps banks, so that’s good for banks. Utilities are utilities, and the energy sector will be utilities due to inumerable restrictions and green change. What’s left?
Portfolios move solely based on their percent holdinds of stocks. Banks scrapped insolvency in 2008 so it’s not different based on that, let’s be hopeful. And especially let’s hope the virus goes before more damage is done. It’s a long road back I fear.

#36 Ronaldo on 07.11.20 at 1:23 pm

#6 haylor_taylor on 07.11.20 at 10:53 am
Anyone want to share (simple) portfolios?

I set-it-and-forget it with 40% ZAG, 40% XAW and 20% VCN, re-balancing at least twice a year.

I keep looking if there’s a better option for the small-pile crowd, but nothing I’ve seen so far seems worth the extra effort.
—————————————————————-
Absolutely. The simpler the better imo. VBAL for example now even ytd. PHN Balanced which I own up 1.1% ytd. Buy and forget about it. Let the fund manager rebalance it for you. Works for me.

By the way, great post Doug. Someone with good common sense. Something hard to find in these times.

#37 Don Guillermo on 07.11.20 at 1:26 pm

#151 BillyBob on 07.11.20 at 11:39 am

If you want to see how Vietnam handled things, and still is, here’s a story that might give some insight.

Your assertion that Vietnam “lacks technology and rigor” is utter condescending garbage.

This is not some stranger, this is a former colleague of mine who left the UK in February to start flying for Vietnam Airlines.

Absolutely crazy story. It’s hard to kill a Scotsman!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53196009

**************************************
Good story with a great ending!

I find this condescending attitude towards developing countries very common and sad.

#38 Ronaldo on 07.11.20 at 1:28 pm

#13 YouKnowWho

President of NFL gets $40m annual salary. President of the “Free World” gets what…$425,000? Think about that.
——————————————————————–Yep, and he donates it every quarter. Who else do you know does that?

#39 Rick Dimanis on 07.11.20 at 1:32 pm

I am sick and tired of people that irresponsible blaming everyone else. If you bought a house, car, went to school, student loans, credit cards, personal etc. etc. and you were not prudent and careful or even did it on purpose never with the intention of paying it back, you should suffer the consequences.

The propping up of everything with a program for this and a program for that makes things worse. You don’t reward misguided, reckless, irresponsible, bad decisions and behaviour because you just get more of it. Like my teachers used to say to me all the time, garbage in, garbage out. Wake up people.

#40 Penny Henny on 07.11.20 at 1:35 pm

#137 BillyBob on 07.11.20 at 7:37 am

Partner and I crunched some numbers. We calculated that based on monthly living costs in Prague we can only survive living there on our liquid savings for roughly the next 108 years.

///////////

What is the typical amount for monthly living expenses in Prague?

#41 Ronaldo on 07.11.20 at 1:36 pm

#20 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.11.20 at 12:24 pm
Good post Doug. Just one problem. To The Fearful it is ONLY about The Virus 24/7/365. There is nothing else.

Unfortunately for us Normies it appears they outnumber us by about 2:1. Therefore “The Cure” will continue until the patient is dead.

Garth how’s bout a poll?
—————————————————————
Bytor, I totally agree with you but I think that the ratio of Fearful to normie is even higher than the 2:1 given the fear amongst the group that I hang out with it is probably 8:1. I would not want to have any of them in the foxhole with me if we were ordered to attack. I’ve not come close to being fearful of this thing from day 1. Just do the numbers.

#42 Faron on 07.11.20 at 1:38 pm

#138 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.11.20 at 8:18 am

Pointing out your hypocrisy is not deflectionism. Pointing out the oil and gas subsidies is relevant because it also illustrates why you can’t wrap your brain around any alternative. Green power is subsidized because that’s the direction we have to go. Oil is subsidized because cheap oil is a massive tailwind for the economy (not saying that’s a bad thing) and because, by being the default player for a century the industry has massive lobbying and financial heft. Unbridled capitalism ignores externalities until they are in our face, then adjusts. That’s not an option with CO2. Hence renewable power has to be subsidized and hence you have no argument as usual. Only bluster.

#43 MF on 07.11.20 at 1:43 pm

#20 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.11.20 at 12:24 pm

“Us normies” ?

I haven’t read a post of yours that didn’t contain some insult in months, if ever.

I hate to break it to you, but people don’t operate like that.

Pro tip: want anyone to take your point of view serious, stop the personal attacks.

MF

#44 baloney Sandwitch on 07.11.20 at 1:44 pm

Maybe tech is in a bubble and the banks are reflecting reality.
You can argue that Canada did too much and the US did too little, but it’s hard to know for sure. It does not seem like it to me. I am glad I am here now and not in Florida or Texas.

#45 Don Guillermo on 07.11.20 at 1:47 pm

#27 Row Bear on 07.11.20 at 12:44 pm
#11 Guillermo

Do you remember that the BBC had to take measures to prevent Ding Dong the Witch is Dead from becoming the number one song in the UK in 2013?
*****************************************
not the point

#46 MF on 07.11.20 at 1:52 pm

6 ain’t life rand on 07.11.20 at 12:40 pm
@#14 TurnerNation on 07.11.20 at 11:54 am
“Circling back to yesterday’s comments – who is insane, me or them?

you are, no question. lol.”

-HahahahahahaHahahahahahahahah

Oh man that’s great. :)

ain’t life rand might have the comment of the decade.

There’s hope here after all.

MF

#47 Derek Sandowski on 07.11.20 at 1:52 pm

Doug, I am sorry, but for over 25 years I have heard that dropping and crashing interest rates to very low levels, some negative, below zero what a concept and getting maybe 80%-90% of all businesses, governments, corporations, consumers etc. in deep, deeper, deepest debt ever in history was good, great stimulus for the economy but it really is a bunch of BS.

It was okay to steal from people’s hard work, savings, time, money with giving them little to no interest and actual losses after taxes, inflation while mostly everyone binging over and over more and more on debt, real estate, leverage investing.

Now, we should be concerned about the economies, banks, financial institutions, banking, financial system, debts etc. of the world. Give me a break, this was all planned many years, decades in advance and many took advantage of this and created this problem, crisis, turmoil, whatever you want to call it.

#48 Sail Away on 07.11.20 at 2:12 pm

#28 MF on 07.11.20 at 12:46 pm
18 Sail Away on 07.11.20 at 12:20

You spent a whole year learning how to invest? These days it’s pretty easy. Some stock and bond etf’s divided into percentages. 1x/year rebalance. Investing is one of these weird things where the more you know the worse you usually do.

What you describe with stock picking is different. That’s speculating and gambling. Pretty easy to for the last 12 years during the manipulated bull market so I wouldn’t be so smug. Every stock has almost the same chart pattern post 2008 since bond prices have been manipulated beyond recognition. In the past, when bond prices were allowed to function normally, you, myself, and 99.9% of all retail investors would have been obliterated in the blink of an eye.

MF

——————-

Oh, ok. Thanks for the insight.

#49 Looking up on 07.11.20 at 2:15 pm

TurnerNation on 07.11.20 at 12:48 pm
#5 Ace Goodheart. I’ve been posting here for almost three months that all Compassion has been removed in the New System.
Serious suggestion. Write the word HOAX onto mask for daycare. Make a statement. And they will not be able to remove that mask yes.

—————

You should refrain from drinking adult beverages before posting.

#50 Habitt on 07.11.20 at 2:17 pm

Merci Doug. Awesome post. You folks explain things well so that even a Joe smuck like myself can follow the posts. Can’t thank you folks enough. Best wishes to Smoking Man. I haven’t read much from Millennial Realist for a bit. Don’t often agree with him but sure makes peoples think.

#51 G on 07.11.20 at 2:19 pm

Hi Doug,

Thanks for your team working hard for, Balance and diversification portfolios! The people that have work hard and saved all there life are hoping your successful.

#3 has a good point, please recolor the final graphs. I’m colour Blind.

Personally in Jan, I was leaving town due to the info I was hearing about the virus on the net. I’m back now and less worried because there are some things they have to help the very sick. Like HCQ with zinc and Z-pack, and other drugs.

I’ve added some zinc with toxic water to the vitamins I take like D3,C,multi,turmeric… Getting the old immunes system ready to deal with any virus can’t hurt.

The CCP is not the worlds friend, the people in china seem to also be in danger from there own government. Just ask the Canadians being held hostage by them now, and Hong Kong. Were is the PM T on this. ‘WE’ aren’t sure??? And he couldn’t even make it to the USMCA meeting last week. Taking a knee is not more important than working for Canadian jobs. Someone please take the Canadian credit card away from him, it’s not his, it’s ours. He’s not being left with the bill. And why can’t the Government print some money instead of borrowing it from a bank?

If there is any truth to ‘WE’ maybe the PM can be made to pay some back? We are still allowed to dream right.

Why are we investing with the CCP again.
Hopefully the 3 gorge dam holds up too.
Some places are getting to much rain, hopefully locally the farms get enough rain, personally I like to eat.

Just wondering what else might get out of a lab. Maybe it already has. Gate said he thought sometime else might happen and be worse next time. Less people flying at the moment might not be such a bad idea. If your job is connected to flying I assume you see it differently.

That Gates guy want to reduce world population using vaccines. He came right out and said so! Dr. Fauci is as flawed as any other human might be, and gates buddy. BTW both holds many drug patents. Fauci said mask don’t work at the beginning. But the MSM doesn’t have a good memory for some reason. Or just out right lies.

Heard that MSM TV news is categorized as entertainment. So hardly a neutral info source. Whom owns and controls them.

I have found it interesting over the years to watch thing like question period live, and then see the spine on the 6pm news. I was shocked the first time I noticed it years ago. They did an out of order 180 to spine it. I’ve noticed other example over the years.

Lately notice the same regarding both the T’s talks. And that internet ‘not main stream media’ sometime has interesting takes on things. Still need to think for yourself.
Or sometimes you can just watch the whole thing yourself though a down load, without the Mass media filter. I’m guessing the owners of MSN doesn’t want you doing that.
Thankfully we are still Free too at the moment, if it is reachable that is.
The large internet companies have been doing the equivalent of burning books lately. This can’t lead to a butter place.

Hopefully light can be shown into dark corners for the greater good. So things like T’s ‘WE’ can lead us all to a better place. If more are paying attention, there is still hope.

Also need to make sure we keep paper hand counted voting or why bother. It once took days to count all votes, no phones, no cars, only horses. Surely we can wait a few hours to hand count votes.

#52 Rocuronium on 07.11.20 at 2:23 pm

#9 Rocuronium

My/spouse portfolio with 200K:
25% VSB
15% CPD
18% VCN
2% ZRE
40% VXC

—————————–

Thanks for sharing! Check out this comparison:

(I’d hyperlink it if I knew how). The third portfolio is my attempt from a couple years ago to glean the wisdom of Turner Investments through comments Garth let fall over the years.

My take-away is that simple rules. Maybe this is b/c of the time period? If you can sub in something equivalent for VCB we might see more…
————————————————————–
Thanks for sharing this! I have VSB (not VCB) so perhaps a bit better result with that. I agree-simple is better. I only started adding preferred and REIT in the past year or two.

#53 Job#1 on 07.11.20 at 2:28 pm

Thanks Doug for reminding that there is another side of the ledger. A few internet searches will produce a wealth of empirical evidence, compiled in actuarial databases, regarding the known consequences of economic downturn, rise in unemployment, etc. The deleterious health effects (both physical and psychological) due to anxiety, distress and the inability to earn a living and provide for one’s needs, results in increased domestic abuse, child abuse and premature deaths. The lost person-years of life expectancy are only one of the many consequences of this economic/social suicide experiment. Anyone with an internet connection can verify these facts.

Other consequences include enormous backlogs for elective surgeries. Huge numbers of people are not showing up for pre-emptive cancer screenings, strokes, heart attacks, and on and on. The hospitals know fairly precisely how many people normally seek these procedures. Seems the media has done a good job of scaring people away.

The public health authorities seem to have tunnel vision and concern themselves only with covid, while ignoring the other side of the ledger. Groups of faceless, unelected public health bureaucrats, dictating policy, without the pesky tempering of measures by our elected leaders. The spineless politicians have abdicated their leadership responsibilities by deferring only to one set of “experts”. They were elected to deal with the tough choices and make decisions when faced with competing issues, in the interest of the public good. Neither public health nor elected leaders have my confidence any more. In my opinion, they have not acted in our collective best interests, and many unfortunates will be paying a far too hefty price for these policy failures.

I feel I could go on (and on…) to add more detail to the above, but in the interest of brevity, I will desist and leave the field open to other commenters.

#54 lifeisgood on 07.11.20 at 2:32 pm

“We also know that these banks didn’t fare particularly well in the US Federal Reserve’s recent stress tests, which resulted in the Fed suspending dividends and share buybacks for the entire group.”

Really ?
You are a money manager …a professionnal…right ?

Every banks suspend buybacks before the FED froze them and all major banks froze their dividends also meaning no growth in dividend for 2020. Dividends are not cut, yet , with all the major banks .

#55 Doug Rowat on 07.11.20 at 2:35 pm

#35 Camille on 07.11.20 at 1:19 pm

Interesting post, thank you. Please clarify (if I’m correct), bank dividends are not “suspended”, but rather capped.

Correct, capped, specifically for Q3. “Frozen” might have been a better word, though the Fed probably didn’t need to mandate this. It would have been one incredibly ballsy move for a bank to actually raise its dividend this quarter.

–Doug

#56 DON on 07.11.20 at 2:43 pm

I’m with Ronaldo…good common sense analysis…that will freak people out they sit around the camp fire telling scary stories.

That Big Short scene…raised an eye brow. I think the two lads were more wound up in their analysis and research being right…rather than the societal consequences of being right.

The reality is, their analysis and reasearch were right.

The whole careful what you wish for argument…is less of a downer than sticking your head in the sand and hoping for a better scenario.

Do we need to open up fully…not a question…but this time govs need to address what got us to our previrus economic slide.

The engine may fire up, but the vehicle will still be hard to drive if the tires are flat.

#57 ts on 07.11.20 at 2:46 pm

#39 Rick Dimanis on 07.11.20 at 1:32 pm

Spot on! Couldn’t agree more. People should take responsibility for their actions and suffer the consequences; how else will they learn? I’m sick of bailing out idiots who are in over their heads due their own reckless behavior.

#58 Marco on 07.11.20 at 3:01 pm

DELETED

#59 Dee on 07.11.20 at 3:11 pm

Great article Doug! It amazes me the self righteous, ignorant, arrogant attitudes of most Canadians right now, that is, according to our polls. It seems their attitudes are the opposite of your thoughts. They seem to think that by staying home forever and closing off our borders that we are somehow winning. Winning what? . I have 2 friends that need scans right now but can’t get them because of the backlog in our canadian system because of the shutdowns… but hey in Canada i guess the only life worth saving is a covid one?? The usa gets 50 million visitors a year because they have things like The Grand Canyon and DisneyLand and Florida and New Orleans and Nashville and Vegas and Golf in winter etc etc etc Maybe one day some of our Canadian arrogance will get thrown back in our face by the americans. Oh you want to come down here to your 2nd home do you, ahhhhh “NO”….and then how about places like the east coast of Canada who have shut down their borders to even people who own properties there. I mean what has Newfoundland and PEI and NEW Brunswick had for covid deaths, 5 in total ? I am in no way making the loss of life a small thing but how many people in those 3 provinces have now died from other things in the last 4 months? So while we close off our communities and our lives for the supposed greater good of “us canadians,” 165 million people will face starvation this year because of these lockdowns. Does anyone care about that? We are starting to see many CEO’s and Health experts coming out saying shutting things down is costing way more deaths and loss and it simply cannot continue going on and yet poll after poll here shows that Canadians want things shutdown. Pretty sad.

#60 majik on 07.11.20 at 3:13 pm

#5 MF on 07.10.20 at 1:50 pm

1 TurnerNation on 07.10.20 at 1:20 pm

Hey TurnerNation,

Watch the following video:

https://youtu.be/clscC120ZQM

Cliffs:

-Famous youtuber (2 million followers) named “Bald and Bankrupt” goes on vacation and films his experiences.
-Doesn’t take Covid seriously. Probably thought it was all made up by “muh elites”
-Continues travelling and ignoring all safety precautions.
-absent for a month.
-Finally posts that he contracted Covid. Tried to ignore it. Ended up in hospital. Saw others pass on. Now trying to tell everyone how serious it can be.

I guess the shadowy elites got to him /sarcasm

—————————

Bald caught pneumonia because he went hiking for hours through a forest in Belarus in the middle of a stormy day to meet his friend Kolya. This happened about 2 months ago. He travelled without proper rain gear or proper footwear, traversing swampy forest in little more than a pair of Converse canvas runners, he didn’t even have hood on his jacket as the rain thundered down. This can all be seen in an earlier video. While his immune system was compromised from this bout of pneumonia he also caught covid.

Bald’s videos are fun but his meteoric rise to stardom on youtube has defied the algorithm and some doubt his authenticity and motives. In mid 2019 he mysteriously gained hundreds of thousands of new follwers putting him in the 1m+ subs catgeory after less than 1 year. This is unprecedented. There is also much mystery surrounding his wealth or lack there off before his youtube stardom and we know very little about his background.

Oddly enough bald seems to find himself in locales where civil unrest often kicks off a couple weeks later, Bolivia, Serbia etc. A mild mannered Englishman who speaks fluent Russian and who spends a large portion of his time in Belarus, Russia and other contentious hotspots like, Bolivia, Serbia, Cuba, Chechnya?

#61 Doug Rowat on 07.11.20 at 3:16 pm

#54 lifeisgood on 07.11.20 at 2:32 pm

“We also know that these banks didn’t fare particularly well in the US Federal Reserve’s recent stress tests, which resulted in the Fed suspending dividends and share buybacks for the entire group.”

Really ?
You are a money manager …a professionnal…right ?

Yet here you are reading my post.

And you should count yourself lucky. Almost no money managers provide a forum for objections, sarcasm, venting of childhood anger issues, etc.

It’s only because Garth and this site allow it that you have a voice at all.

You’re welcome.

–Doug

#62 MANtra on 07.11.20 at 3:24 pm

The old adage….
“Life’s tough.. Then you die” appears to be lost on the new snowflake generation.
If you can’t handle a little turbulence, then you better make sure you’re not wearing your mask when it’s time for the “barf bag” !

#63 the Jaguar on 07.11.20 at 3:38 pm

Finished reading ‘The Splendid and the Vile’ earlier today. All about Churchill and the courage and defiance of the British people during the Blitz. We really haven’t got a clue what real suffering or solidarity of strength and purpose is all about. If there is a round two of Covid I can’t guarantee I will go quietly.

I’m grateful for good books to read while we pass the time in a summer of uncertainty.
It’s inspiring to look back to that generation and what life was like. What an amazing plane the Pan American Airways plane ‘Atlantic Clipper’ must have been. I wish I could have been a passenger.

#64 DON on 07.11.20 at 3:42 pm

@8:1 ratio.

What’s the age break down…if you dont mind me asking?

Definitively more fear than required given the lack of significant cases…but then again was/is the lack of significant cases (spread of virus) a result of initial fear and isolating.

As you know…the island is full all retirees with underlying conditions…but no large scale outbreaks. My sis is a pallative care nurse in the retirement mecca just north of you and has yet to alert me of any issues. Then again most of her patients were already in some form of lock down.

#65 DON on 07.11.20 at 3:44 pm

my previous comment @8:1 ratio was meant for Ronaldo.

cheers!

#66 Ace Goodheart on 07.11.20 at 3:56 pm

RE: #22 MF on 07.11.20 at 12:32 pm

5 Ace Goodheart on 07.11.20 at 10:50

We are a bunch of “violent vigilantes”?

Hyperbole much? Actually, not even hyperbole, straight up bull crap.

////////////////////////////////

I don’t know about that. The video I watched, with the violent vigilantes taking down and pummeling the guy with the video camera on King Street, looked pretty real.

The “cottager stay away guy” did just threaten me and my family with physical harm here yesterday, and also threatened to damage my car and put a micro chip on it.

I actually didn’t mention anything about my not wanting to wear a face mask. Where did you get that from?

I am noticing that people are increasingly resorting to violence and threats to deal with what they perceive to be “risks” associated with COVID-19.

Those risks include having to share space on the planet with people who they do not know.

In other words, if you do not know a person, it appears that it is now mainstream thought, that you can become physically violent with that person, in order to “remove them” from where you live. Even if where you live, you have decided, is an entire county or district of a Province (ie, get out of Muskoka, or we will physically assault you, your wife, and your children, and damage your car).

Again, no one said anything about a face mask. I always wear mine whenever I go out, out of respect for people who may fear this virus. I never leave my house unmasked.

#67 Freedom First on 07.11.20 at 3:57 pm

Doug Rowat. I absolutely loved reading your article today. Thank you for always sincere, valuable, and ability to adhere to nothing but the truth when sharing your insights. Well done!

Freedom First

#68 Faron on 07.11.20 at 3:58 pm

#25 haylor_taylor on 07.11.20 at 12:39 pm
#9 Rocuronium

Thanks for the useful discussion guys. While insuring your portfolio during non COVID times may be an unnecessary drag, doing so during COVID would have paid in a big way. Link below is same port 1 but with 3% global equities exchanged for 3% VIX futures ETF. Again, a huge drag when times are normal, but a huge buffer when volitility reigns as it does now. I continue to hold a couple percent. Obviously this strays far from simple or set it and forget it, but possibly worth considering?

With insurance

#69 lifeisgood on 07.11.20 at 4:06 pm

“Yet here you are reading my post.

And you should count yourself lucky. Almost no money managers provide a forum for objections, sarcasm, venting of childhood anger issues, etc.

It’s only because Garth and this site allow it that you have a voice at all.

You’re welcome.

–Doug”

I’m lucky that I knew that the big banks still had dividends and not selling them on your infos, but what about a reader here telling himself…”Well maybe I should sell my JPMorgan because Doug said the dividends were suspended and I sure need my dividends”. It might sound extreme but possible as most “investors” are kind of clueless and are “listening” to other “pros”.

My 2 cents.

#70 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.11.20 at 4:26 pm

“for every 1% that unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It’s an illogical statement, leaving too much info out for any sense to be made from it. After all, the death rate has remained the same all around the world and in every era: 1 death per person.

#71 Damned if you do.. on 07.11.20 at 4:42 pm

I’m so tired of people blaming Trump for what this virus is doing, it’s ridiculous.

There is no cure so what’s preventing it from spreading?
Certain precautions may slow it down but it’s still out there.

Either everyone stays at home and watches the worlds economy crumble, which won’t end the Virus, or accept the fact that almost everyone is eventually going to be exposed to the virus.

There’s no middle ground.

If your in Canada where the numbers are improving this will change once borders are opened and flights are resumed.

And then the dreaded second wave…,

Herd exposure it’s inevitable.

#72 EG on 07.11.20 at 4:43 pm

Good article. Just , why was Blackrock omitted ?

#73 SoggyShorts on 07.11.20 at 4:44 pm

#142 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 9:43 am
#122 SoggyShorts on 07.10.20 at 10:50 pm
#113 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 9:22 pm
#85 George S on 07.10.20 at 6:40 pm
****************************
But…how?
I mean how would this study be conducted?
———
Leave covid-19 out of the picture for a moment. You are telling me there can’t be basic studies of two groups (mask vs. no mask) with a sneeze machine to simulate transmission? Scientific study is not to explain the entire event of variables but break the event to it’s components and measure.

***********************
Why? Why would anyone conduct a study on such a completely proven fact of physics?
I told you, the simple test is to see if you can or cannot spit through your T-shirt.
Do you really think we need to create a sneeze machine to simulate this?

As for Vietnam, I was actually there, and yes, they beat the virus.
♦Banned flights from china February 1st.
♦The vast majority of Vietnamese already owned cloth masks before covid-19, and they are available on just about every street corner for under a buck.
♦Hand sanitizer was in the doorway to every single store(that was open)
♦All travelers to Vietnam (and therefore all original carriers) were tracked and traced. This sometimes meant quarantining hundreds of people for just one person. For example, In February after a handful of cases in Son Loi, north of Hanoi, more than 10,000 people living in the surrounding area were sealed off. The same would happen to 11,000 people in the Ha Loi commune near the capital, and to the staff and patients of a hospital.

If you saw footage of line-ups with thousands not wearing masks, THAT was the propaganda.

Other factors of varying significance
♦Vietnamese in general do not commute with many living working and recreationing in a very small area. Living upstairs from your shop isn’t just common, it’s the norm.
♦Hot temperatures: there may be lower transmission from surfaces in hotter climates

The thing is that Vietnam has close to 1/3 of America’s population and maybe 5% of its medical capacity. If they had USA levels of infection There’d be 1m+ deaths by now and you’d know about it- they have the internet.

#74 Phylis on 07.11.20 at 4:48 pm

#27 Row Bear on 07.11.20 at 12:44 pm
#11 Guillermo

Do you remember that the BBC had to take measures to prevent Ding Dong the Witch is Dead from becoming the number one song in the UK in 2013?

—————————-
Boaty McBoatface was fun too.
Rick Astley also Comes to mind.

#75 Linda on 07.11.20 at 4:53 pm

Seeing the rate of infection in the USA, it is clear that the steps taken to contain the outbreak in Canada were prudence personified. However, we are now cautiously reopening & as long as everyone acts sensibly – keeps on washing the hands, wearing masks, staying home if feeling unwell etc. we may be able to recover economically, though that is going to take years. To put the spending in perspective, if there are 18 million working Canadians every single one would have to fork over $19,000 just to pay off the deficit created by Covid related expenditures.

#76 Idiocy on 07.11.20 at 4:55 pm

to comment # 28 MF

“Pretty easy to do for the past 12 years during the manipulated bull market …”

Then why didn’t you do it ?

Sail Away makes a valid assertation and no, I’m not a fan of his.
But when he is right, he is right.

#77 Faron on 07.11.20 at 4:55 pm

Sail Away

Can Tater and I get you on the record saying that the TSLA stock price is currently not a bubble? If not, respectfully, why not?

My thought is that Elon tweeted that the stock was too high, IHO, because a bubble burst will just be crappy marketing for his vision for the company long term. Groupies are fun until they get in your way…

#78 Idiocy on 07.11.20 at 5:06 pm

further to comment # 28

Sail Away probably meant that he took a year to LEARN his investment style or the basics of investing.

Any ‘real’ investor who has clocked consistently superior / extraordinary returns over time will no doubt tell you that they continue to learn as it is an ongoing process.

Methinks your millennial inadequacies are rearing their ugly green head again.

Besides, why do you believe some guy posting on a website ?

I am pretty sure I can recall you chastising others here for “…believing what they read on the internet…”
TurnerNation is one that comes to mind.

#79 Grunt on 07.11.20 at 5:09 pm

W instead of V?

#80 Flop... on 07.11.20 at 5:10 pm

I’ve still got my old WordPress Blog with all the old information and polls I put up on here.

Used to be PollDaddy, but I just looked and it is now linked with Crowdsignal.

Haven’t touched it in over a year, just collecting blog dust.

I’ve forgotten how to do it, so hopefully it’s just like riding a bike.

I guess what I’m saying is that anyone that wants a poll done on here, I am o.k with volunteering to put it up via my account, if you want to get the pulse of something.

If the boss of this blog does one he gets more responses but a guy that can’t write and is allergic to three syllable words once somehow had one of the top real estate blogs in Vancouver.

Just write the exact question and options if you want multiple choice and I will put it up when I get a chance.

This is a standing offer.

Could be getting called up for surgery any day now, so I better brush up on my time wasting skills…

M46BC

#81 45north on 07.11.20 at 5:14 pm

Oddly, his tweet reminded me of Brad Pitt’s casino speech from The Big Short. Pitt, who plays a character loosely based on a former Wall Street trader who bet big against the US housing market during the financial crisis, reprimands two of his young protégés who are enthusiastically cheering for the downfall of the US economy. Says Pitt’s character: “If we’re right, people lose jobs, people lose homes, people lose retirement savings, people lose pensions…. Here’s a number: for every 1% that unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die.”

oddly I am watching the Big Short too

the movie is all about the the American mortgage market – in 2005, people stopped paying their mortgages. The movie shows that the value of financial instruments based on the mortgages collapsed – triggering widespread suffering. In the movie, the three characters Jamie, Charlie and Ben are leaving a casino in Las Vegas. The character Ben says If we’re right, people lose jobs, people lose homes, people lose retirement savings, people lose pensions…. Here’s a number: for every 1% that unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die

In Canada, the Covid crisis has revealed a mortgage crisis – 750,000 households have deferred their mortgages. The Canadian mortgage market in 2020 is in worse shape than the American mortgage market in 2005 but so far, there have been no consequences. What are the consequences?

#82 T on 07.11.20 at 5:25 pm

#22 MF on 07.11.20 at 12:32 pm
5 Ace Goodheart on 07.11.20 at 10:50

We are a bunch of “violent vigilantes”?

Hyperbole much? Actually, not even hyperbole, straight up bull crap.

We get it. You are upset about wearing a mask and being responsible. No one else is excited about this, but if the mask reduces the transmission even by 1%, then it’s worth it if we can get our economy up and running faster and stronger.

That’s why people are wearing masks. Not because of some societal flaw that you erroneously believe.

MF

————

This is exactly spot on.

Wear a mask people!

#83 SoggyShorts on 07.11.20 at 5:28 pm

#24 Stoph on 07.11.20 at 12:36 pm
#6 haylor_taylor on 07.11.20 at 10:53 am

Anyone want to share (simple) portfolios?

***************************
I’ve recently shifted from a homebrewed version of VBAL to an even simpler portfolio.
20% HTB
67% S&P 500*
13% XIU

*ZSP for the most part, with our RRSPs all in USD holding VOO to avoid foreign withholding taxes and to get 30% USD exposure.

My reasoning:
♦The S&P 500 contains a lot of diversity since the top companies are just headquartered in the USA- they are actually global. They will also continue to do well by being too big to compete with along with lobbying and pretty much rigging the game.
♦HTB is 7-10y US treasury bonds which is basically a bet that people think things will be better in 7-10 years. This is something a bunch of people believe in both good times and bad. Also, It gives you something to sell and rebalance when the markets turn sour while reducing volatility.
♦XIU Mostly I think I’m hanging on to Canadian companies because I like our banks and the P/E ratio is so much lower than in the S&P 500.

#84 conan on 07.11.20 at 5:28 pm

“we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself”,

Trump was was mostly wrong with this statement. It led him to the incorrect believe that ending the lock down “early” would save money etc.

Having to re lock down is ” very expensive.”

Fact is lock down was only part one of the equation, part two was getting the health care system up to size for the job.

Covid is here for the long term and we are likely to be sickened by it more than once. A vaccine is problematic since it would need to be rotated every 3 months. That is a lot of needles.

#85 AlMac on 07.11.20 at 5:35 pm

#18 Sail

Good list of references. I would also add Jack Bogle (deceased) from Vanguard. He had a great set of videos. Garth’s blog inspired my move to DIY; best move ever.

#86 Idiocy on 07.11.20 at 5:36 pm

to comment # 75 Linda

You forgot to add the /sarc tag to your post.

“Prudence personified … ”

How can you be so ill informed ?

1) sending our PPE inventory to China in February
2) not restricting inbound flights from China, Iran, Italy , etc. early on
3) Dr. Tam’s mask flip flop
4) The carnage at old age / long term care facilities
5) No real time statistics reports for months
6) The retention of the Health Minister clearly out of her depths
7) The lack of valid dated PPE inventory
8) The indiscriminate CERB roll out

need I go on ?

Hope you will be happy to pay the toll for all of this “prudence”.

#87 SoggyShorts on 07.11.20 at 5:36 pm

#78 Idiocy on 07.11.20 at 5:06 pm
further to comment # 28

Besides, why do you believe some guy posting on a website ?

*************
To be fair, Sail Away posts some of his buys and sells on here when he does them and only really discusses those wins and losses so there’s not much room for faking it.

#88 Ronaldo on 07.11.20 at 5:48 pm

#53 Job#1

Good post. I agree with most that you have posted. I just wonder how history will record this.

#89 Frustrated Kiwi on 07.11.20 at 5:52 pm

The problem with “the cure can’t be worse than the disease” is it encourages a no-uncertainty perspective on this disease, whereas what is needed is risk management because there are some very big downside and a lot of unknowns. NZ locked down at only 200 cases with a super strict lockdown, eliminating spread, and now everything is open here except the borders. At the time we weren’t sure of R or fatality rate so this was a risk adverse play that has worked out. Now it’s looking likely that immunity is short lived, which was always a possibility, making the herd-immunity strategy not work well. A risk-based approach would have ruled out going for herd immunity until it was clear it was possible. So much mismanagement, but particularly in the US.

#90 SoggyShorts on 07.11.20 at 5:55 pm

#71 Damned if you do.. on 07.11.20 at 4:42 pm
I’m so tired of people blaming Trump for what this virus is doing, it’s ridiculous.
There is no cure so what’s preventing it from spreading?
Certain precautions may slow it down but it’s still out there.
Either everyone stays at home and watches the worlds economy crumble, which won’t end the Virus, or accept the fact that almost everyone is eventually going to be exposed to the virus.
There’s no middle ground.
If your in Canada where the numbers are improving this will change once borders are opened and flights are resumed.
And then the dreaded second wave…,
Herd exposure it’s inevitable

**********************
There’s a bit to unpack there, but I’ll give it a go:
1. People blame Trump because his messages are unclear, divisive, and generally unhelpful while sounding very ignorant despite access to any information he could want.
2. There’s no cure(yet) so social distancing, hygiene, and masks are in place to slow the rate of infection until either a cure, a vaccine, or better treatments can be found.
3. Of course, there’s a middle ground– opening with caution. Stop listening to extremists from either side.
4. Herd immunity isn’t a given with moderate infection rates and the possibility of mutations or low antibody life. e.g. you are only immune to the common cold for about a year or SARS for about 4 years after getting it. If SARS-CoV-2 only gives immunity for months or a year we may never hit the estimated 70% required.

#91 Ronaldo on 07.11.20 at 6:02 pm

#65 DON on 07.11.20 at 3:44 pm
my previous comment @8:1 ratio was meant for Ronaldo.

cheers!
——————————————————————–
Don, I am 74 and the age group would be 68 to 80.

#92 YouKnowWho on 07.11.20 at 6:15 pm

Masks?

Best article with deep dive into data I’ve seen on it, back in April. For all you discussing it.

Face masks for COVID-19: A deep dive into the data
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/should-you-wear-a-face-mask-heres-all-the-data-we-have/?amp=1

#93 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 6:34 pm

#37 Don Guillermo on 07.11.20 at 1:26 pm
#151 BillyBob on 07.11.20 at 11:39 am

If you want to see how Vietnam handled things, and still is, here’s a story that might give some insight.

Your assertion that Vietnam “lacks technology and rigor” is utter condescending garbage.

This is not some stranger, this is a former colleague of mine who left the UK in February to start flying for Vietnam Airlines.

Absolutely crazy story. It’s hard to kill a Scotsman!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53196009

**************************************
Good story with a great ending!

I find this condescending attitude towards developing countries very common and sad.
———–
Oh wow…more people talking out of their butts using a news story at a fancy PRIVATE hospital in Saigon that treats a white guy which has the money or the insurance that can cover the cost. Do you think the average viet has access to that kind of healthcare? Have you ever visited Vietnam or lived there for an extended period of time and used the regular “hospitals” that the government provides for it’s people?? No? Then I suggest people shut your mouths.

In Vietnam, you are more likely to die on the way to the hospital (private or government ones) because of the traffic. It’s so dense that the ambulances can’t get through the traffic, especially during rush hours. Once you get to the hospital, you are left in the hallway, when you admitted so get a filthy bed which is sometimes shared with someone else. When the doctor comes around to check on you and diagnose, you are given the cost of whatever procedure that you may need. If you don’t pay them there and then, you are allowed to lay in the bed for a bit longer but eventually sent home.

How do I know this? This is exactly what happen with my father in law when he had a heart attack at home in Saigon. It took him 30 mins to get to the hospital a few kilometers away. He had to get two bypasses and it costed 200M VND which I paid for.

Wife’s cousin a few years back in Da Nang ate dinner and went to bed. Dude didn’t wake up. No prior complaints of symptoms or illness. Dude just died in his sleep. Mid 30s. No one came to investigate, no questions asked. Buried the dude and burn some incense on the anniversary of his death.

So stop admiring a communist country and the propaganda it shows to make people think it is a first world country. It isn’t unless you got money. So ~300 cases covid cases confirmed and zero deaths?? It’s called “NOT REPORTING”.

#94 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.11.20 at 6:43 pm

#43 MF on 07.11.20 at 1:43 pm whines:
“#20 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.11.20 at 12:24 pm

“Us normies” ?

I haven’t read a post of yours that didn’t contain some insult in months, if ever.

I hate to break it to you, but people don’t operate like that.

Pro tip: want anyone to take your point of view serious, stop the personal attacks.

MF”
—————————————————————–
Pointing out that irrational people are irrationally afraid of facts is not a personal attack.

Nice try though.

#95 Long-Time Lurker on 07.11.20 at 6:43 pm

Was a crippling global pandemic on your radar back in January?

—–

#111 Long-Time Lurker on 02.06.20 at 11:15 pm
>For the record. Health Canada, you might want to take this pandemic scenario more seriously.

WORLD NEWS FEBRUARY 6, 2020 / 4:48 PM / UPDATED 3 HOURS AGO

‘Ghost city’: Commute through China’s deserted capital amid coronavirus.

Despite this, Beijing would typically be thronged with morning traffic and tourists heading to Tiananmen Square, the Great Hall of the People and the Forbidden City.

Instead, Reuters Greater China Chief video producer Mark Chisholm has spent the last 10 days commuting through a “ghost city” to work amid an extension of the Lunar New Year holidays due to the coronavirus outbreak.

“You see empty walkways, empty streets with very little cars, bicycles or motorbikes,” Chisholm said….

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/02/06/audreys-world/#comment-686633

#96 Long-Time Lurker on 07.11.20 at 6:44 pm

>So, Jair Bolsonaro caught the Covid. I read he’s on hydroxychloroquine. Let’s see how well he’s going to do. Boris Johnson almost died of the Covid. From what I’ve read, Bolsonaro should be close to back to normal by next Friday.

Video calls, separate bedrooms: Bolsonaro’s first COVID week
Associated Press
DANIEL CARVALHO
Associated Press•July 11, 2020

Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro, second right, ascends a flight of steps inside the official residence Alvorada Palace, in Brasilia, Brazil, Friday, July 10, 2020. Bolsonaro, 65, announced that he is infected with the new coronavirus on Tuesday and is using it to publicly extol hydroxychloroquine, the unproven malaria drug that he’s been promoting as a treatment for COVID-19, and now takes himself. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)

BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) — After months in which Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro downplayed COVID-19 by flouting social distancing recommendations and mostly shunning masks, both coronavirus precautions became part of his cloistered life this week at the official residence in capital Brasilia.

Bolsonaro, 65, announced on Tuesday that he tested positive for the virus and had experienced fever, aches and malaise. He scrapped a trip he had planned to northeastern Piauí state, and all his meetings for the week were converted to video calls…

…Bolsonaro took hydroxychloroquine pills for five days, Monday through Friday, according to a member of the presidential medical team who asked to not be identified, citing patient confidentiality and because the person isn’t authorized to speak publicly. The drug has no proven effect on the treatment of COVID-19 and can cause side effects such as cardiac arrhythmia, according to medical studies. As a result, Bolsonaro was subjected to electrocardiograms and blood tests, the person said….

https://news.yahoo.com/video-calls-separate-bedrooms-bolsonaro-183012292.html

#97 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.11.20 at 6:48 pm

#29 TurnerNation on 07.11.20 at 12:48 pm sez:

“#5 Ace Goodheart. I’ve been posting here for almost three months that all Compassion has been removed in the New System.
Serious suggestion. Write the word HOAX onto mask for daycare. Make a statement. And they will not be able to remove that mask yes.”
——————————————-
Sorry man but even though much of what you say gives us much food for thought this one’s over the line. Ace shouldn’t weaponize his kid instead he should take personal responsibility and pull his kid out of day care and look after said kid himself.

Deprive the system of money and it will fail.

#98 R on 07.11.20 at 6:49 pm

Tesla will be included into the S&P 500 with a positive Q2 announced April 22/20. Te ETFs and Mutual Funds that track the S&P 500 will then have to purchase Tesla ,and at sufficient volume that it is represented by weight of capitalization. Tesla is in the top 40, of the 500, by capitalization, so the fund purchases will by large. I believe the recent run up of the stock price , about $150 gain Friday, is due to the realization Tesla’s Q2 will be positive, and the fund managers are starting to accumulate Tesla in anticipation. Elon Musk hinted a positive Q2 with the sales of bright red ” Short Shorts”. He is laughing at the Tesla short sellers. This is a epic, ” Buckle Up, Buttercup”, the ride is going to get bouncy.

#99 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.11.20 at 6:50 pm

#42 Faron on 07.11.20 at 1:38 pm makes a funny:

“#138 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.11.20 at 8:18 am

Pointing out your hypocrisy is not deflectionism. Pointing out the oil and gas subsidies is relevant because it also illustrates why you can’t wrap your brain around any alternative. Green power is subsidized because that’s the direction we have to go. Oil is subsidized because cheap oil is a massive tailwind for the economy (not saying that’s a bad thing) and because, by being the default player for a century the industry has massive lobbying and financial heft. Unbridled capitalism ignores externalities until they are in our face, then adjusts. That’s not an option with CO2. Hence renewable power has to be subsidized and hence you have no argument as usual. Only bluster.”
———————————————
LOL. I was gonna respond to this post then I decided that your whole worldview is based on a lie so I didn’t.

#100 Sail Away on 07.11.20 at 6:51 pm

#77 Faron on 07.11.20 at 4:55 pm
Sail Away

Can Tater and I get you on the record saying that the TSLA stock price is currently not a bubble? If not, respectfully, why not?

My thought is that Elon tweeted that the stock was too high, IHO, because a bubble burst will just be crappy marketing for his vision for the company long term. Groupies are fun until they get in your way…

——————-

Um, respectfully, I’m not day trading.

Let’s just say it is highly improbable that 1800% gains will disappear.

It’s a lot of fun watching you and Dill-o miss the mark again and again, though.

#101 TurnerNation on 07.11.20 at 7:02 pm

Reading the posts here the message from some is the same as *4 months ago*
“If you all just accept the social and economic devastation and loss of rights a little bit longer, then we will not be like Italy….err Venezuela…err no I mean USA”.
Look you’ve been “quarantining” for over 100 days.
And nobody is sick. Get over yourself.
If you are happy being presumed sick until proven innocent then stop celebrating Rememberance Day.
It’s over. We just lost.
Oncr again this about controlling our minds.
2 more weeks guys we must flatten the curve!
(Do people still use that term?)
Just about 2 week

This control grid that’s been set up is not going.

#102 Job#1 on 07.11.20 at 7:20 pm

#88 Ronaldo

Thanks for the mention. I just wish that I could believe what I said was untrue.

#103 Idiocy on 07.11.20 at 7:27 pm

to comment # *7 Soggy Shorts

You missed the point completely.
Not arguing about the veracity of Sail Away’s claims.

Pointing out to MF that he tells others to not believe everything they see on the internet then goes and believes that things posted here are factual.

Besides, anyone can say I bought Tesla shares (or whatever) today – does that make it so ?

#104 OK, Doomer on 07.11.20 at 7:31 pm

And now it looks like someone reading your mind is enough to get you fired:

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bronsonstocking/2020/07/11/cancel-culture-targets-professors-who-like-the-wrong-things-on-social-media-n2572319

#105 Yukon Elvis on 07.11.20 at 7:34 pm

#93 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 6:34 pm

(private or government ones) because of the traffic. It’s so dense that the ambulances can’t get through the traffic, especially during rush hours. Once you get to the hospital, you are left in the hallway, when you admitted so get a filthy bed which is sometimes shared with someone else. When the doctor comes around to check on you and diagnose, you are given the cost of whatever procedure that you may need. If you don’t pay them there and then, you are allowed to lay in the bed for a bit longer but eventually sent home.
……………………………………………………

Right you are. Seen this scenario many times in my Asian travels. The rich can afford “almost up to western standard health care.” The hospital conditions for the poor are appalling. The call goes out to family members for cash for treatment and even drugs. Then a family member has to go search for a pharmacy. If family does not bring food the patient doesn’t get fed. We don’t appreciate how good we have it here in the Western world.

#106 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 7:35 pm

#73 SoggyShorts on 07.11.20 at 4:44 pm

Why? Why would anyone conduct a study on such a completely proven fact of physics?
———–
I can’t explain why some studies are done over others despite it being “common knowledge” as you put it.
If not for the fart studies, how would the rest of us know to stay clear of @crowdedelevatorfartz in these unprecedented times?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/04/27/can-farts-transmit-covid-19-coronavirus-here-is-what-is-being-said/#31ccd751310f

So perhaps when you mandate something that everyone has to comply to, a bit more insight and less back and forth about using masks is warranted? Remember, people were wearing masks from the start and then were told to NOT wear them because they were ineffective, then are told masks “can” help prevent the spread. But now it is seems it is scientific fact our fabric masks are going to make the difference? Ok, so how effective are they to airborne covid-19? Do you see a need for any studies now or is it obvious of what the results are??

Banned flights from China Feb 1? Too bad the epicenter at that time was Europe and covid was still getting in.

https://thoibao.de/blog/2020/03/11/vietnam-closes-its-borders-what-do-people-eat/

Viets already own masks? Sure the ones they use day in and day out, maybe washing them once a week for when riding to work to lessen inhaling soot from exhaust emissions. Propaganda to make the government look bad? Maybe or just people reporting what they see like in this youtube video of a street pharmacy. People need to understand to street pharmacies over there arent like the shoppers drugmart here but more like Tim Hortons when it comes to locations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mx9QhcRmaBE

I will admit producing their own hand sanitizer and auto quarantining people getting off flights did help things but my point was there isn’t consistent testing being done like it is in other countries due to infrastructure and logistics so the true number of covid-19 infected in a population of 90M is more than 300.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing
Vietnam daily testing: No data

#107 Doug t on 07.11.20 at 7:36 pm

#5 Ace

SPOT ON – civilization has stopped being civil

#108 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 7:41 pm

#77 Faron on 07.11.20 at 4:55 pm
Sail Away

Can Tater and I get you on the record saying that the TSLA stock price is currently not a bubble? If not, respectfully, why not?
——————–
What does it matter if it is in a bubble or not? If you willing to take the risk, you reap the reward. Isn’t that what Canadians have been doing with housing? It isn’t for everyone but one thing is certain, no matter how much you lose year over year, as long as you can convince people to pour money into your company, you’ll be fine and eventually you should make some money. Look at AMZN. 20+ years of losing money.

#109 Steerage on 07.11.20 at 7:44 pm

#101 TurnerNation on 07.11.20 at 7:02 pm
Reading the posts here the message from some is the same as *4 months ago*
“If you all just accept the social and economic devastation and loss of rights a little bit longer, then we will not be like Italy….err Venezuela…err no I mean USA”.
Look you’ve been “quarantining” for over 100 days.
And nobody is sick. Get over yourself.
If you are happy being presumed sick until proven innocent then stop celebrating Rememberance Day.
It’s over. We just lost.
Oncr again this about controlling our minds.
2 more weeks guys we must flatten the curve!
(Do people still use that term?)
Just about 2 week

This control grid that’s been set up is not going.

I’m doing great dude…. you’re the one who’s being controlled… you’ve gone stark raving bonkers… oh well have fun lost in your mind… the echoes of your mind

#110 Slim on 07.11.20 at 7:50 pm

I’m always reminded of the start of WWI, when the general population were thinking it would be all over by Christmas, 1914. It ended up being a four year grind.

We could be due for another world wide conflict again. WWII followed the great depression. Then we have Pakistan, India and China on the top of the world, ready to go at each other.

One day at a time. That’s all I’m asking for.

#111 El presidente no more on 07.11.20 at 7:51 pm

#101 TurnerNation on 07.11.20 at 7:02 pm
Reading the posts here the message from some is the same as *4 months ago*
“If you all just accept the social and economic devastation and loss of rights a little bit longer, then we will not be like Italy….err Venezuela…err no I mean USA”.

Well donnie is now wearing a mask …. they got to him as well… the last remaining hope for mankind’s freedom…. hope has been extinguished

#112 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.11.20 at 7:59 pm

n1tro: So ~300 cases covid cases confirmed and zero deaths?? It’s called “NOT REPORTING”.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hong Kong, which as nearly as many people as the whole of Ontario all living on top of each other has had only 7 deaths. Would you like to say that Hong Kong is in the same boat as Vietnam?

#113 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.11.20 at 8:02 pm

#101 TurnerNation

I hear you and you’re spot-on.

#114 Do we have all the facts on 07.11.20 at 8:06 pm

Based on well established mortality rates it is anticipated that an average of 710 Canadian citizens 65 years or older will die every day in 2020.

In the 124 days since the first death in Canada was attributed to the Covid 19 virus we could have anticipated the death of 88,000 citizens 65 years of age or older.

This is a verifiable fact that has been totally ignored by mainstream in their Covid 19 headlines.

The question that should have been asked by those in decision making positions is what percentage of the 8,790 deaths in Canada coded under UO7.1 Covid 19 since March 9, 2020 would have fallen within the 88,000 deaths anticipated over last 124 days and would have been recorded under a different code in 2019.

In Peterborough where I live a total of two deaths have been coded UO7.1 Covid 19 and one of those deaths was a 90 year old lady that was placed in palliative care in January and died in April. A laboratory test confirmed the presence of the Covid 19 virus in her system but it seems probable that other health factors actually caused her death.

7,100 of the 8,790 deaths attributed to the Covid 19 virus involved an occupant of one of the 235,000 long term care beds in Canada. The average life expectancy of a resident entering a long term care facility in Canada is less than 18 months. Over 95% of all deaths recorded under UO7.1 in Canada in 2020 had one or more serious pre-existing health conditions that compromised there natural immunity.

Our governments did a very poor job of protecting our most vulnerable citizens once the Covid 19 virus was detected and the virus spread to many residents of a long term care facility. All deaths where the Covid 19 virus was detected began to be recorded under UO7.1 Covid 19 in 2020 and it seems probable that hundreds, if not thousands of deaths in long term care facilities would probably have been recorded under a different code in 2019.

An unbiased evaluation of the impact of the Covid 19 virus on established mortality rates in Canada is certainly overdue. What are we hiding and why?

#115 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 8:08 pm

#92 YouKnowWho on 07.11.20 at 6:15 pm
Masks?

Best article with deep dive into data I’ve seen on it, back in April. For all you discussing it.

Face masks for COVID-19: A deep dive into the data
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/should-you-wear-a-face-mask-heres-all-the-data-we-have/?amp=1
—————-
Thank you!

Nuggets of information for majority of people who won’t read it and keep passing the narrative…

——
They found that the N95 equivalent mask blocked more than 95 percent of all particles, as expected. The surgical mask was around 40 percent effective, with the dental masks coming in at around 60 percent. Cotton masks were around 30 percent effective and cotton handkerchiefs ranged from 2 percent (one layer) to 13 percent (four layers).

Masks on health workers which can be conflated to how it works for regular population in a hotspot…

Overall, both masked groups had fewer respiratory symptoms, influenza-like illnesses, and confirmed viral infections than the control group. The rates of illness were approximately double in those who wore surgical masks compared with those who wore N95 respirators, though. For instance, about 9 percent of non-mask wearers reported respiratory symptoms compared with about 7 percent of surgical mask wearers and 4 percent of N95 wearers.

But with such small infection rates overall, there was limited power to detect differences, and the authors note that the findings may not hold up in other settings.

READ THE FOLLOWING SLOWLY TO UNDERSTAND WHAT I HAVE BEEN QUESTIONING THE LAST FEW DAYS….

Masks on everyone…

With the new recommendations, everyone may be wearing masks, which has also been examined in a number of studies.

In 2008, a randomized controlled trial led by researchers in Hong Kong looked at the effect of blanket mask wearing on the spread of flu within households. They started with 198 households with one confirmed case at the beginning. Of those households, 127 were told that all household members should wear masks around each other. In 35 households, members were instructed to adhere to hand hygiene protocols and the remaining 36 households were controls.The researchers found little difference in infection spread among all three groups.

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In 2009, researchers led by a group in Australia followed up with a similar randomized controlled study. The group looked at the spread of influenza-like illness to 286 adults in 143 households with a sick child. Participants were either assorted into a control group, a surgical mask group, or a more protective mask. Overall, they detected no difference in infection rates among the three groups. They noted that at least half of masked participants didn’t adhere to wearing the mask.

Another randomized controlled trial in 2009 followed people in 259 households in Hong Kong. Collectively, the households started with 407 household members with flu and 794 uninfected contacts. The households were randomly assorted to either all wear surgical masks, practice hand hygiene, or act as controls. Overall, the interventions didn’t lead to statistically significant differences in the spread of infections within the households. But when they looked at households that started using masks quickly (within 36 hours) after the onset of flu symptoms in a member, they did see a statistically significant reduction in infection spread.

Likewise, in a 2012 randomized controlled trial involving 84 households in Germany, RESEARCHERS AGAIN FOUND NO DIFFERENCE IN DISEASE SPREADING AMONG HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS THAT USED MASKS, MASK AND HAND HYGIENE, OR WERE THE CONTROL GROUP. However, when they did a separate analysis just looking at the HOUSEHOLD WHO FULLY IMPLEMENTED mask wearing or mask wearing and hygiene WITHIN 36 hours of onset of symptoms in their first case, they did note A LOWER CHANCE of transmission than what was seen in controls.

#116 Stoph on 07.11.20 at 8:14 pm

#83 SoggyShorts on 07.11.20 at 5:28 pm
#24 Stoph on 07.11.20 at 12:36 pm
#6 haylor_taylor on 07.11.20 at 10:53 am

Anyone want to share (simple) portfolios?
***************************
I’ve recently shifted from a homebrewed version of VBAL to an even simpler portfolio.
20% HTB
67% S&P 500*
13% XIU

*ZSP for the most part, with our RRSPs all in USD holding VOO to avoid foreign withholding taxes and to get 30% USD exposure.
—————————————————————–

Don’t forget to use Norbert’s Gambit when exchanging large amounts of CAD into USD or vice versa to save currency exchange fees. YouTube’s has some good how-to videos.

#117 Chris on 07.11.20 at 8:29 pm

See the NY Times article. “Pandemics depress the economy; public health interventions do not: evidence from the 1918 flu.” Interesting reading.

#118 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 07.11.20 at 8:30 pm

The biggest risk to the US is Joe Biden getting elected. He has already said he will raise corporate taxes which is exactly the wrong move when trying to restart the economy.

Trump may say things to deliberately upset woke people but he is a steady hand when it comes to the economy. Also Trump is not cheering the BLM and Antifa trouble makers and supports law and order. Public safety is essential to economic progress.

Many Democrats have the crazy idea that we should de-fund the police. That is completely nuts and will turn important US cities like New York and Chicago into battle zones! Middle and upper class whites, Hispanics and blacks will leave these cities. That will erode their tax base and lead to a decline like Detroit saw after it’s 1960s riots.

#119 Steven Nicolle on 07.11.20 at 8:31 pm

You cannot have a healthy economy if you have over 60000 new infections a day that we know of and up to a 1000 people dying a day. Put up with some inconvenience now to open up the economy safely. People lived worse through the World Wars lining up for rations. Toughen up people. Sorry about your investments going through highs and lows. Hold on though and see it through. Just hang in there and soon this will be over and then shortly after there will be another crisis.

#120 Lambchop on 07.11.20 at 8:34 pm

A study on efficacy of cloth masks versus medical masks versus no mask.

“Results: The rates of all infection outcomes were highest in the cloth mask arm, with the rate of ILI statistically significantly higher in the cloth mask arm (relative risk (RR)=13.00, 95% CI 1.69 to 100.07) compared with the medical mask arm. Cloth masks also had significantly higher rates of ILI compared with the control arm. An analysis by mask use showed ILI (RR=6.64, 95% CI 1.45 to 28.65) and laboratory- confirmed virus (RR=1.72, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.94) were significantly higher in the cloth masks group compared with the medical masks group. Penetration of cloth masks by particles was almost 97% and medical masks 44%.“

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/5/4/e006577.full.pdf

#121 Drinking on 07.11.20 at 8:36 pm

This is the best blog that I have read from you Doug; good job!

#122 Lambchop on 07.11.20 at 8:36 pm

Oops, I don’t think it included a no-mask control.

#123 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 8:51 pm

#112 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.11.20 at 7:59 pm
n1tro: So ~300 cases covid cases confirmed and zero deaths?? It’s called “NOT REPORTING”.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hong Kong, which as nearly as many people as the whole of Ontario all living on top of each other has had only 7 deaths. Would you like to say that Hong Kong is in the same boat as Vietnam?
————
No idea about Hong Kong. I just have experience with how Vietnam and it’s government works.

#124 kappa on 07.11.20 at 9:12 pm

I expect S&P 500 to go up 50% over the next 3 years.
The reason: a lot of pharma companies focus on developing an drug that cures covid-19; they have more financial resource than ever before and they are actually making great progress. Read here, for more details:
https://www.williamhaseltine.com/even-without-a-covid-19-vaccine-theres-reason-for-hope/

#125 Trojan House on 07.11.20 at 9:15 pm

Very well written and some very pertinent points. We can’t do this indefinitely. We have no leaders in this country willing to make tough decisions.

However, Vaccine Choice Canada (VCC) has launched a lawsuit in Ontario Superior Court against the federal government, Ontario’s government, the mayor of Toronto and various medical officers of health challenging the lockdowns, mask wearing etc. You can read about it here:

https://vaccinechoicecanada.com/media/press-release-legal-challenge-to-covid-19-measures-filed-in-ontario-superior-court/

Speaking of mask wearing – the nurses should know better. Why? Because in 2015 and 2018 the Ontario Nurses Association (ONA) grieved decisions by hospitals and health administrations to impose a ‘vaccination or mask’ (VOM) policy. They argued that there was no evidence to support that either getting a vaccination or wearing a mask would protect people they dealt with from getting the flu. They won both grievances. And before you say “it ain’t the flu, bro,” it is a “virus” so the same rules apply. You can read about it here:

https://www.ona.org/news-posts/ona-wins-vaccinate-or-mask-flu-policy/

And here is the decision by the arbitrator:

https://www.ona.org/wp-content/uploads/ona_kaplanarbitrationdecision_vaccinateormask_stmichaelsoha_20180906.pdf

#126 Franco on 07.11.20 at 9:19 pm

o.k. wiseguy, what do you do with all the people getting sick that need hospital care and that could be you and me and if you have any the people you love.

#127 conan on 07.11.20 at 9:24 pm

#86 Idiocy on 07.11.20 at 5:36 pm

How can you be so ill informed ?

1) sending our PPE inventory to China in February
2) not restricting inbound flights from China, Iran, Italy , etc. early on
3) Dr. Tam’s mask flip flop
4) The carnage at old age / long term care facilities
5) No real time statistics reports for months
6) The retention of the Health Minister clearly out of her depths
7) The lack of valid dated PPE inventory
8) The indiscriminate CERB roll out

need I go on ?

======

All of your answers are suspect

1) That is called being a good neighbor. China paid us back with their PPE.
2)That strands Canadians in other countries. The solution is lock down and quarantine, not screwing up people’s lives.
3) They did not want a run on PPE. Our medical personal did not have enough for themselves. Also read number 2 again.
4) That is a failure of private industry and the stats prove it.
5)No one has real time stats,
6)Everyone is out of their depths. It is a new corona virus.
7)No one, and I mean no one, thought we would get a pandemic all over the world, and that it would happen in a few months.
8). The need for a program in the immediate sense ruled out any early disqualifiers.

Linda is right and you sound like a noob.

#128 Yoyito on 07.11.20 at 9:32 pm

Trump is the best, doesn’t need money because he is rich, so his time in office is dedicated to the country, unlike others.

#129 TurnerNation on 07.11.20 at 9:51 pm

#97 Bytor fair point. I heard today the disease is so deadly that you need a test to indicate that you have it!

#130 Joseph R. on 07.11.20 at 9:54 pm

PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary

Also Trump is not cheering the BLM and Antifa trouble makers and supports law and order.

—————————————————————-

Trump believing in law and order?

Reads like such a joke.

#131 harold balcom on 07.11.20 at 9:58 pm

#7 if you can’t tell on 07.11.20 at 11:15 am

i don’t see an issue. the FED and other central banks will just print more money. isn’t that the solution to every problem??

…like instead of putting bankers in Jail for the 2008 disaster? or corporate executives in Jail for borrowing money to buy stock bank and pay themselves big bonuses, while leaving their companies financially bankrupt? …

Pretty much all you need to know

#132 Faron on 07.11.20 at 10:06 pm

#98 R on 07.11.20 at 6:49 pm

Thanks for your thoughts. Presuming that was a response to my query.

N1tro:

That’s a good question. I think asset bubbles (nasqaq, crypto, cdn housing, tulips) bother me because I’m too risk averse to jump into them yet I watch with envy as people reap many dollars for participating in them. They aren’t hard to spot but their longevity seems almost totally random. Thus, when spotted, they are too dangerous for me to shelve my fear of the risk involved. More importantly, bubbles also bother me because we are commonly told that markets are efficient, but it that were true bubbles wouldn’t form. One can conclude from that that markets have a huge autoregressive stochastic component and are thus much more risky than I’d like to believe and fundamentals much less important than I would like to be the case.

I accept Sail Away’s answer that he’s in for the long term, so even a 50% correction isn’t a concern. TESLA isn’t going away any time soon. But, were I in his shoes staring at a triple digit pct gain since March, I’d be taking money off the table, especially in this environment. That’s why I hold broad ETFs with small holdings in companies that appear badly undervalued.

#133 Dr V on 07.11.20 at 10:13 pm

Great number of posts for a Saturday Doug. Well done!

#134 Alberta Trapper on 07.11.20 at 10:17 pm

If you are concerned about the US election, I would be concerned about What comes after Trump.
My son in law a trucker in the USA will not pick up loads in cities that have defunded their police departments, or deliver them. This is going to get real ugly before the election especially with people who own guns.

#135 Sail Away on 07.11.20 at 10:17 pm

#85 AlMac on 07.11.20 at 5:35 pm
#18 Sail

Good list of references. I would also add Jack Bogle (deceased) from Vanguard. He had a great set of videos. Garth’s blog inspired my move to DIY; best move ever.

—————-

Oh, absolutely, the father of the index fund. And it all started with an idea, then thesis… the Vanguard. I browse the Bogleheads website frequently.

#136 Sail Away on 07.11.20 at 10:22 pm

#116 Stoph on 07.11.20 at 8:14 pm
#83 SoggyShorts on 07.11.20 at 5:28 pm
#24 Stoph on 07.11.20 at 12:36 pm
#6 haylor_taylor on 07.11.20 at 10:53 am

Anyone want to share (simple) portfolios?

—————–

I’ve recently shifted from a homebrewed version of VBAL to an even simpler portfolio.
20% HTB
67% S&P 500*
13% XIU

*ZSP for the most part, with our RRSPs all in USD holding VOO to avoid foreign withholding taxes and to get 30% USD exposure.

—————–

Don’t forget to use Norbert’s Gambit when exchanging large amounts of CAD into USD or vice versa to save currency exchange fees. YouTube’s has some good how-to videos.

—————–

Try Canadian Couch Potato and Bogleheads websites- lots of portfolios there. Also, I’ve moved to Transferwise for exchanging instead of Norbert’s. Nothing wrong with Norbert’s but it is a bit more cumbersome.

#137 SWL on 07.11.20 at 11:33 pm

@59 Dee Nailed it!

Nice to see not everyone has fallen for the hysteria. On another note I’ve often thought MF would make a great little commie swallowing what ever pill they are told, with their nose held high standing in line

#138 Dr V on 07.11.20 at 11:34 pm

Thanks to all bloggers who offered portfolio allocations.
I was an indexer before indexing was cool, but have recently used some actively managed funds for transitioning to retirement. I have one individual stock, and I could see maybe 2 more.

50% of my holdings are growth oriented, of which 3/4 are indexed. Most of the remainder is low volatility which I recently acquired to balance out the “dumb growth” of the indexes. The bit left is NA small/mid cap.

Almost 25% is what is best described as equity income – ie dividends. 3/4 is Canadian for the tax advan, the
rest US. Need to bolster the US, int’l and RE.

Just over 25% is fixed income, of which over 1/3 is
indexed. There is also some foreign exposure.

When I originally met with my advisor, she was quite happy with my allocation, both geographically and by
asset class. Though I am low FI, I still have cash reserves. She is helping me bolster the weak areas and fill in any holes.

#139 tkid on 07.11.20 at 11:53 pm

However, if solar flares shoot from Trump’s eyes and volcanos erupt behind him melting people’s faces like Major Toht from Raiders of the Lost Ark and cause markets to take another nosedive …

Dude. Don’t give 2020 any ideas.

#140 Future Expatriate on 07.12.20 at 12:03 am

Simple fact. If the virus is not stopped, there will be NO economy. Sorry if that cuts into cash flow, but the prudent better realize that mass death = no customers for the forseeable.

Cart comes AFTER the horse.

Always. And Darwin always wins.

#141 MaryEn on 07.12.20 at 1:29 am

Hi Doug,

Thanks for the great post as always. Do you guys still recommend to hold about 20% of bonds in the portfolio? During the market downturn I have been selling bonds and buying equities using dollar cost averaging. Thanks to this strategy, my portfolio has been recovering quickly.

Now I’m hesitant to sell equities and buy back bonds as they are pretty pricey and pay low yields. Could you please share your thoughts on buying back bonds in current market conditions? Would you suggest any other alternative? Thank you!

#142 Slow children playing on 07.12.20 at 1:41 am

#120 Lambchop on 07.11.20 at 8:34 pm
A study on efficacy of cloth masks versus medical masks versus no mask.

“Results: The rates of all infection outcomes were highest in the cloth mask arm, with the rate of ILI statistically significantly higher in the cloth mask arm (relative risk (RR)=13.00, 95% CI 1.69 to 100.07) compared with the medical mask arm. Cloth masks also had significantly higher rates of ILI compared with the control arm. An analysis by mask use showed ILI (RR=6.64, 95% CI 1.45 to 28.65) and laboratory- confirmed virus (RR=1.72, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.94) were significantly higher in the cloth masks group compared with the medical masks group. Penetration of cloth masks by particles was almost 97% and medical masks 44%.“

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/5/4/e006577.full.pdf

/////////////////

Nice try. This study examines mask use to prevent transmission to the wearer; cloth masks are worn to lower transmission from the wearer, and I’m pretty sure this is the 47th time someone has posted that distinction. I know we’re not supposed to mock the slow learners, but this is getting ridonculous.

#143 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 07.12.20 at 4:04 am

#5 Ace Goodheart on 07.11.20 at 10:50 am

I am now required to force my two year old to wear a face mask when he goes to pre school.

#22 MF on 07.11.20 at 12:32 pm
5 Ace Goodheart on 07.11.20 at 10:50

We get it. You are upset about wearing a mask and being responsible.

—————————————————————–

MF, I think you are reading something into Ace’s post that is not there. No where did he state he was upset at wearing a mask himself.

Anyone who has ever parented or babysat a 2-year old knows exactly what Ace is saying.

#144 BillyBob on 07.12.20 at 4:27 am

#93 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 6:34 pm

———–
Oh wow…more people talking out of their butts using a news story at a fancy PRIVATE hospital in Saigon that treats a white guy which has the money or the insurance that can cover the cost. Do you think the average viet has access to that kind of healthcare? Have you ever visited Vietnam or lived there for an extended period of time and used the regular “hospitals” that the government provides for it’s people?? No? Then I suggest people shut your mouths.

In Vietnam, you are more likely to die on the way to the hospital (private or government ones) because of the traffic. It’s so dense that the ambulances can’t get through the traffic, especially during rush hours. Once you get to the hospital, you are left in the hallway, when you admitted so get a filthy bed which is sometimes shared with someone else. When the doctor comes around to check on you and diagnose, you are given the cost of whatever procedure that you may need. If you don’t pay them there and then, you are allowed to lay in the bed for a bit longer but eventually sent home.

How do I know this? This is exactly what happen with my father in law when he had a heart attack at home in Saigon. It took him 30 mins to get to the hospital a few kilometers away. He had to get two bypasses and it costed 200M VND which I paid for.

Wife’s cousin a few years back in Da Nang ate dinner and went to bed. Dude didn’t wake up. No prior complaints of symptoms or illness. Dude just died in his sleep. Mid 30s. No one came to investigate, no questions asked. Buried the dude and burn some incense on the anniversary of his death.

So stop admiring a communist country and the propaganda it shows to make people think it is a first world country. It isn’t unless you got money. So ~300 cases covid cases confirmed and zero deaths?? It’s called “NOT REPORTING”.

=================================================

So, your opinion is highly coloured by personal bias based on your negative experiences. Noted.

My friend and former colleague isn’t “some story on the news” to me. Any more than your father in law is to you.

What you actually said originally was that Vietnam lacks “technology and rigor”. Which is patently false. If you wanted to debate ACCESS to said resources, you should have said so. Access to health care is highly uneven in our “first world” countries too. Nothing you’ve said about Vietnam is any less true in the US regarding the poor having less access to the best care. And if you think wealthy Canadians are the ones on waitlists for surgeries you’re delusional.

Simple fact is my friend would almost certainly be dead if he had been that ill in his “first world” home country. Admiring the tenacity of the doctors who saved him has nothing to do with communist propaganda so maybe you should pull your head out. You don’t have a monopoly on experience in that part of the world.

#145 Do we have all the facts on 07.12.20 at 8:00 am

I am having trouble understanding why our governments are continuing the six foot separation standard for the general population of Canada. After four months of tracking there is clear evidence that the Covid 19 virus poses an extremely low risk of serious illness or death to citizens under 65 whose immune systems have not been compromised.

The number of hospitalization and deaths attributed to the Covid 19 virus steadily declined from the peak in
April once the most vulnerable citizens began to receive the health care that should have been provided by our governments from day one.

It was not the practice of six foot separation within the general population that reduced serious illness and death rates within Canada. Once our governments improved the health care provided within long term care facilities the mortality rate attributed to Covid 19 began to decline.

Over 3,000,000 Canadians have been tested for the a Covid 19 virus and to date 3.4% were identified as having the virus in their system while 96.6% had no trace of the virus. What is the actual goal of our governments: 2.0%, 1.0%, O.O%?

What percentage of the total population do our governments plan to test: 20%, 50%, 100% before the current restrictions are relaxed or eliminated?

What is the actual risk of serious illness or death from the Covid 19 virus within the general population of Canada that will result in a return to normal life?

Citizens who are most vulnerable to the Covid 19 virus should continue preventative measures until the virus has run its course. Our governments should invest in improving health care for the most vulnerable not in compensating the general population following an imposition of restrictive measures that crippled our economy.

We deserve to know the point where restrictions be eased or removed. What are the targets that will result in change?

Is there actually a target other than arrival of a vaccine or an infection rate below 0.0%.

If the federal government can whip up $350 billion in compensation funds why are they so reluctant to invest additional funds to protect the lives of Canadian citizens who are actually at serious risk to all forms of viral and bacterial infections.

One inquiring mind would like an answer!!

#146 NoName on 07.12.20 at 8:38 am

#142 Slow children playing on 07.12.20 at 1:41 am
#120 Lambchop on 07.11.20 at 8:34 pm
A study on efficacy of cloth masks versus medical masks versus no mask.

“Results: The rates of all infection outcomes were highest in the cloth mask arm, with the rate of ILI statistically significantly higher in the cloth mask arm (relative risk (RR)=13.00, 95% CI 1.69 to 100.07) compared with the medical mask arm. Cloth masks also had significantly higher rates of ILI compared with the control arm. An analysis by mask use showed ILI (RR=6.64, 95% CI 1.45 to 28.65) and laboratory- confirmed virus (RR=1.72, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.94) were significantly higher in the cloth masks group compared with the medical masks group. Penetration of cloth masks by particles was almost 97% and medical masks 44%.“

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/5/4/e006577.full.pdf

/////////////////

Nice try. This study examines mask use to prevent transmission to the wearer; cloth masks are worn to lower transmission from the wearer, and I’m pretty sure this is the 47th time someone has posted that distinction. I know we’re not supposed to mock the slow learners, but this is getting ridonculous.

Funny guy…

I dont know for you, but when i put mask on it there to protect myself 1st, my family 2nd and everyone else 3rd, having it in that order look bit selfish, but i assure you its not. Re read your first sentence.

#147 Phylis on 07.12.20 at 9:01 am

142 Slow children playing on 07.12.20 at 1:41 am
#120 Lambchop on 07.11.20 at 8:34 pm
A study on efficacy of cloth masks versus medical masks versus no mask.

/////////////////

Nice try. This study examines mask use to prevent transmission to the wearer; cloth masks are worn to lower transmission from the wearer, and I’m pretty sure this is the 47th time someone has posted that distinction. I know we’re not supposed to mock the slow learners, but this is getting ridonculous.

/////////////////
What are your thoughts on the N95 masks with the relief valves?

#148 Doug Rowat on 07.12.20 at 9:10 am

#140 Future Expatriate on 07.12.20 at 12:03 am

Simple fact. If the virus is not stopped, there will be NO economy. Sorry if that cuts into cash flow, but the prudent better realize that mass death = no customers for the forseeable.

This virus isn’t stopped and there have already been mass deaths. So, when exactly do we transition into “NO economy”, whatever that means?

You haven’t provided a “simple fact”, only a simple prediction.

–Doug

#149 ain't life rand on 07.12.20 at 9:14 am

@#137 SWL on 07.11.20 at 11:33 pm
@59 Dee Nailed it!

Nice to see not everyone has fallen for the hysteria. On another note I’ve often thought MF would make a great little commie swallowing what ever pill they are told, with their nose held high standing in line
————————

i’m wondering if you’re an octogenarian.

#150 Ace Goodheart on 07.12.20 at 9:15 am

RE: #107 Doug t on 07.11.20 at 7:36 pm

#5 Ace

SPOT ON – civilization has stopped being civil

/////////////////////////////////

I was talking to a guy I know last night.

He thinks COVID-19 is a cold, and people have gone crazy being so frightened of the common cold. He believes climate change is a hoax. Thinks that racism is something that coloured folk came up with, to justify the crazy stuff that their kids were doing.

I was starting to disagree with him.

Then he tells me a story. He went to his favorite axe throwing venue, to toss axes at a wall. This is a thing apparently. He found the site being “protested”. Apparently, some people “felt” that they would not be “supported by staff” if they were to have discussions about racism and gender issues, while throwing axes.

They wanted emotional support. From the staff. Of an axe throwing joint. I guess they wanted staff to hold them, perhaps hug them? Tell them that everything was OK?

Several newspapers had their reporters there, and they were going to try to “shame” the venue into shutting down. Close up operations. Throw everyone out of work. Create empty commercial space. Bankrupt the owner. Because a group of people did not feel emotionally supported in their views.

I think that we have lost the “middle” ground of collective thought.

One one side of things, we have the fearmongerers. Everything is unsafe. People have to stay home. We have to shut everything down. The only way to live, is in constant fear, of everything. We have to spend our lives apologizing for things people did, before we were born. We have to demand the impossible from everyone, and “cancel culture” all who cannot deliver. The best way to live, is by constantly judging everyone else, using standards that you yourself could never meet, and then hiding in your house.

On the other side, we have the hard core disbelievers. Don’t trust the government, they are a bunch of sops. MSM is corrupt and works for the deep state. Everything you are told is a bunch of lies. Everyone has an agenda. Everything is a plot, a ploy to take away your rights and freedoms.

In the middle, we have, nothing anymore. There is no middle. The middle has retreated out of sight, perhaps afraid that it might be judged as being part of one extreme or the other?

People like the guy I was talking to, control the dialogue on one side of the conversation. On the other, there is nothing but fear, endless apologies, revisionist history, book burning, desecration of historical figures and a general desire to erase everything that came before us.

We need the middle back.

#151 Doug Rowat on 07.12.20 at 9:17 am

#51 G on 07.11.20 at 2:19 pm

Hi Doug,

Thanks for your team working hard for, Balance and diversification portfolios! The people that have work hard and saved all there life are hoping your successful.

#3 has a good point, please recolor the final graphs. I’m colour Blind.

Alas, they are a product of the Ontario Securities Commission. But, needless to say, the line that drops furthest isn’t the balanced portfolio.

–Doug

#152 Sail Away on 07.12.20 at 9:17 am

#132 Faron on 07.11.20 at 10:06 pm

I accept Sail Away’s answer that he’s in for the long term, so even a 50% correction isn’t a concern. TESLA isn’t going away any time soon. But, were I in his shoes staring at a triple digit pct gain since March, I’d be taking money off the table, especially in this environment.

—————–

Thanks Faron!

Your response is slightly helpful. I had a conversation with my deity/stock squirrel:

Squirrel: Has this person commented on TSLA before?
SA: Yes, repeatedly.

Sqirrel: Was he correct?
SA: No. Precisely the opposite.

Squirrel: Do you have more nuts?

#153 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.12.20 at 9:23 am

@#81 45 North
“In Canada, the Covid crisis has revealed a mortgage crisis – 750,000 households have deferred their mortgages. The Canadian mortgage market in 2020 is in worse shape than the American mortgage market in 2005 but so far, there have been no consequences. What are the consequences?”

+++

I’m sure there will be a spike in divorces and suicides.
“Til debt do us part”

The unpleasant side effects of severe or prolonged economic downturns.

#154 Sail Away on 07.12.20 at 9:24 am

#76 Idiocy on 07.11.20 at 4:55 pm
to comment # 28 MF

Sail Away makes a valid assertation and no, I’m not a fan of his.

—————-

You’ll get there.

#155 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.12.20 at 9:28 am

@#93 nitro

” regarding # 144 BillyBob’s reply”

+++++

When he’s right, he’s right.

#156 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.12.20 at 9:31 am

Just curious.
Is Trump holding that Bible upside down and backwards in the cheesy photo op?

#157 Flop... on 07.12.20 at 9:32 am

Forget Peter MacKay.

It’s secret weapon time.

I’m reaching for the Governor-General…

M46BC

” The 1975 Australian constitutional crisis, also known simply as the Dismissal, has been described as the greatest political and constitutional crisis in Australian history. It culminated on 11 November 1975 with the dismissal from office of the Prime Minister, Gough Whitlam of the Australian Labor Party (ALP), by Governor-General Sir John Kerr, who then commissioned the Leader of the Opposition, Malcolm Fraser of the Liberal Party, as caretaker Prime Minister.

Whitlam’s Labor government had been elected in 1972 with a small majority in the House of Representatives, but with the balance of power in the Senateheld by the Democratic Labor Party, who usually supported the Liberal-Country Opposition. The 1974 election resulted in little change. While the Whitlam Government introduced many new policies and programmes, it was also rocked by scandals and political miscalculations. In October 1975, the Opposition used its control of the Senate to defer passage of appropriation bills needed to finance government expenditure, which had already been passed by the House of Representatives. The Opposition stated that they would continue to block supply unless Whitlam called an election for the House of Representatives, and urged Kerr to dismiss Whitlam unless he agreed to their demand. Whitlam believed that Kerr would not dismiss him, and Kerr did nothing to disabuse Whitlam of this notion.

On 11 November 1975, Whitlam intended to call a half-Senate election in an attempt to break the deadlock. When he went to seek Kerr’s approval for the election, Kerr instead dismissed him as Prime Minister and shortly thereafter installed Fraser as caretaker Prime Minister. Acting quickly before all ALP parliamentarians became aware of the change of government, Fraser and his allies were able to secure passage of the appropriation bills, and Kerr dissolved Parliament for a double dissolution election. Fraser and his government were elected with a massive majority in the election held the following month.

The events of the Dismissal led to only minor constitutional change. The Senate retained its power to block supply, and the Governor-General the power to dismiss government ministers. However, these powers have not since been used to force a government from office. Kerr was widely criticised by Labor supporters for his actions, resigned early as Governor-General, and lived much of his remaining life abroad.”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Australian_constitutional_crisis

#158 Lambchop on 07.12.20 at 9:43 am

#142 Slow children playing on 07.12.20 at 1:41 a

Nice try. This study examines mask use to prevent transmission to the wearer; cloth masks are worn to lower transmission from the wearer, and I’m pretty sure this is the 47th time someone has posted that distinction. I know we’re not supposed to mock the slow learners, but this is getting ridonculous

____________________

Nice try at what, exactly? I presented the study purely as information, with no statement whatsoever as to my bias.
You added that, followed by insulting my intelligence.

Classic hallmarks of a master debater.

#159 Gravy Train on 07.12.20 at 10:08 am

#149 ain’t life rand on 07.12.20 at 9:14 am
“i’m wondering if you’re an octogenarian.” I’m betting that he isn’t! :P

#160 Dharma Bum on 07.12.20 at 10:19 am

If solar flares shoot from Trump’s eyes and volcanos erupt behind him melting people’s faces like Major Toht from Raiders of the Lost Ark…
——————————————————————–
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfQWz4gVcP8&list=PLix_VJy1pnGSpK0UeAPZx8nl8d1ty40w8&index=74

We’re the Raiders
Of the Lost Ark
Met a Nazi
Then, his face melted

#161 joblo on 07.12.20 at 10:34 am

Big SHOUT OUT to the voters in Papineau, Toronto Center, and St. John’s South, Khinada.

Pleez keep electing JT, BM, & S’OR.

Entertainment value for these “Unprecedented Times”.

Brilliant!

#162 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.12.20 at 10:37 am

#148 Doug Rowat on 07.12.20 at 9:10 am
#140 Future Expatriate on 07.12.20 at 12:03 am

Simple fact. If the virus is not stopped, there will be NO economy. Sorry if that cuts into cash flow, but the prudent better realize that mass death = no customers for the forseeable.

This virus isn’t stopped and there have already been mass deaths. So, when exactly do we transition into “NO economy”, whatever that means?

You haven’t provided a “simple fact”, only a simple prediction.

–Doug
————-
I’d assume if we had let the virus rip, i.e. Keep everything open incl. sports events, we’d really have mass deaths by now, and most people would be scared to hell and hunkered down.
Hence no economy.

#163 Sail Away on 07.12.20 at 10:51 am

#132 Faron on 07.11.20 at 10:06 pm

I hold broad ETFs with small holdings in companies that appear badly undervalued.

—————-

Pro tip: it is frequently the case that companies which appear to be badly undervalued to the retail investor are actually quite properly valued. You never have all the information.

If you are risk averse as you’ve stated, you should not be dabbling with contrarian investing.

#164 WE on 07.12.20 at 11:14 am

Good Morning Doug,

Thank you for your application to be a paid WE speaker at our upcoming events.

Unfortunately, our invitation was only for Garth, and you do not currently meet our standards for this position.

If you can spend more time working on your abs, and also get some arm candy like Dorothy, we could reconsider your application for the future.

(If you have any familial links with the Trudeau family that you did not mention, please contact us at our private email address for review now.)

Best wishes in your future endeavours.

WE

#165 Faron on 07.12.20 at 11:21 am

#152 Sail Away on 07.12.20 at 9:17 am

Aw, poor squirrel, but I’m sure zhe has another source of nourishment. Maybe your wife has some of your nuts kept in reserve some place?

#166 IHCTD9 on 07.12.20 at 11:27 am

#143 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 07.12.20 at 4:04 am
#5 Ace Goodheart on 07.11.20 at 10:50 am

I am now required to force my two year old to wear a face mask when he goes to pre school.

#22 MF on 07.11.20 at 12:32 pm
5 Ace Goodheart on 07.11.20 at 10:50

We get it. You are upset about wearing a mask and being responsible.

—————————————————————–

MF, I think you are reading something into Ace’s post that is not there. No where did he state he was upset at wearing a mask himself.

Anyone who has ever parented or babysat a 2-year old knows exactly what Ace is saying.
—— —

This the MF calling card. It happens all the time.

He reads a post and totally misses the point.

I’m pretty much convinced that he must have some kind of learning or comprehension disability.

#167 IHCTD9 on 07.12.20 at 11:27 am

#143 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 07.12.20 at 4:04 am
#5 Ace Goodheart on 07.11.20 at 10:50 am

I am now required to force my two year old to wear a face mask when he goes to pre school.

#22 MF on 07.11.20 at 12:32 pm
5 Ace Goodheart on 07.11.20 at 10:50

We get it. You are upset about wearing a mask and being responsible.

—————————————————————–

MF, I think you are reading something into Ace’s post that is not there. No where did he state he was upset at wearing a mask himself.

Anyone who has ever parented or babysat a 2-year old knows exactly what Ace is saying.
—— —

This is the MF calling card. It happens all the time.

He reads a post and totally misses the point.

I’m pretty much convinced that he must have some kind of learning or comprehension disability.

#168 Liked posts on 07.12.20 at 11:30 am

To 114 do we have all the facts, agree
To 150 ace Goodheart I said the same thing a week ago or so
You wrote it better.
Today’s thought
In response to a women screaming at people saying it’s my right not to wear a mask I don’t care if you die.
I read the other day a funny response but very true
It said I have the right to close my eyes while driving, there is no law against it, but it’s my right, yes I may kill someone but who cares.
I believe it was on the CBC cannot find the link
Just putting in prospective for our dumb citizens.
What this virus taught me is exactly what good heart said we have become a nation of extremes. I guess we always had middle ground but no longer.
Thanks for the posts

#169 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.12.20 at 11:31 am

D#156 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.12.20 at 9:31 am
Just curious.
Is Trump holding that Bible upside down and backwards in the cheesy photo op?
—————
Yep, and it was not even his own.
Was properly ridiculed by media for this stunt.

#170 Faron on 07.12.20 at 11:32 am

#163 Sail Away on 07.12.20 at 10:51 am

You are correct. Thanks for the advice.

Pretty much just following the gospel of DDTG global global here. A little Hertz, some carnival, a few bankrupt retailers. Just the good stuff.

Seriously, in the name of honest reporting, I’ll let people here know how it goes, because we all need more fodder for time wastage here. Luckily, I seem to have a surplus of nuts to help fuel my posting of any losses or for just generally being transparent.

#171 Faron on 07.12.20 at 11:42 am

#162 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.12.20 at 10:37 am
#148 Doug Rowat on 07.12.20 at 9:10 am
#140 Future Expatriate on 07.12.20 at 12:03 am

Easy Ponzius. Doug is simply pointing out that extremes like “no economy” and “no customers” are ridiculous. During the very worst periods of the lockdown in NYC and when the death rates were highest, the economy was certainly smaller, but it still existed.

#172 Faron on 07.12.20 at 11:58 am

#168 Liked posts on 07.12.20 at 11:30 am
“To 114 do we have all the facts, agree
To 150 ace Goodheart I said the same thing a week ago or so
You wrote it better.
Today’s thought

…we always had middle ground but no longer.”

Ha ha! Sums it up perfectly. Or, in a nutshell, as it were.

Time to go outside.

#173 Doug Rowat on 07.12.20 at 12:20 pm

#162 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.12.20 at 10:37 am
#148 Doug Rowat on 07.12.20 at 9:10 am
#140 Future Expatriate on 07.12.20 at 12:03 am

Simple fact. If the virus is not stopped, there will be NO economy. Sorry if that cuts into cash flow, but the prudent better realize that mass death = no customers for the forseeable.

This virus isn’t stopped and there have already been mass deaths. So, when exactly do we transition into “NO economy”, whatever that means?

You haven’t provided a “simple fact”, only a simple prediction.

–Doug
————-
I’d assume if we had let the virus rip, i.e. Keep everything open incl. sports events, we’d really have mass deaths by now, and most people would be scared to hell and hunkered down.
Hence no economy.

“Really have mass deaths”. Well, if you put “really” in front of it then I know exactly what you mean.

Vagueness was the problem to begin with. Along with the certain outcome (“NO economy”).

Plenty of devastating viruses and diseases are never “stopped”, yet the global economy adjusts and moves along. We need to consider this possibility.

Pretending we definitively know outcomes is what leads to investing errors and why so many abandon balanced portfolios, usually to their detriment.

–Doug

#174 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.12.20 at 12:20 pm

#171 Faron on 07.12.20 at 11:42 am
#162 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.12.20 at 10:37 am
#148 Doug Rowat on 07.12.20 at 9:10 am
#140 Future Expatriate on 07.12.20 at 12:03 am

Easy Ponzius. Doug is simply pointing out that extremes like “no economy” and “no customers” are ridiculous. During the very worst periods of the lockdown in NYC and when the death rates were highest, the economy was certainly smaller, but it still existed.
————-
Sure, they locked it down quickly and that avoided a real disaster, and a real hit to the economy.
Of course, even during WWII there was “some” economy in Germany.
Stop nitpicking.

#175 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.12.20 at 12:25 pm

Faron,
Further more, are you Doug’s press secretary?

#176 Sail Away on 07.12.20 at 12:27 pm

#170 Faron on 07.12.20 at 11:32 am
#163 Sail Away on 07.12.20 at 10:51 am

…just following the gospel of DDTG global global here. A little Hertz, some carnival, a few bankrupt retailers. Just the good stuff.

Seriously, in the name of honest reporting, I’ll let people here know how it goes, because we all need more fodder for time wastage here.

——————

It is a major misconception that examining stocks and markets is wasted time, or that working a ‘real job’ is more important.

By constantly tracking, researching and learning finances and investing, it’s possible to make exponentially more from investing than working. I started earning more from investing than working 4 years ago and it’s gotten continuously more skewed.

Be diligent. Take it seriously. It is equally important as, if not more important than, work.

#177 Stoph on 07.12.20 at 12:36 pm

#136 Sail Away on 07.11.20 at 10:22 pm
#116 Stoph on 07.11.20 at 8:14 pm
#83 SoggyShorts on 07.11.20 at 5:28 pm
#24 Stoph on 07.11.20 at 12:36 pm
#6 haylor_taylor on 07.11.20 at 10:53 am

Anyone want to share (simple) portfolios?

—————–

I’ve recently shifted from a homebrewed version of VBAL to an even simpler portfolio.
20% HTB
67% S&P 500*
13% XIU

*ZSP for the most part, with our RRSPs all in USD holding VOO to avoid foreign withholding taxes and to get 30% USD exposure.

—————–

Don’t forget to use Norbert’s Gambit when exchanging large amounts of CAD into USD or vice versa to save currency exchange fees. YouTube’s has some good how-to videos.

—————–

Try Canadian Couch Potato and Bogleheads websites- lots of portfolios there. Also, I’ve moved to Transferwise for exchanging instead of Norbert’s. Nothing wrong with Norbert’s but it is a bit more cumbersome.

—————————————————————–

That works too – as long as you avoid excessive fees.

I had mentioned it as a reply to SoggyShorts as I was thinking that Norbert’s Gambit would be particularly useful for blog dogs who take SoggyShorts’ advice and end up moving their US exposure in their RRSPs from a CAD to a USD account.

#178 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.12.20 at 12:44 pm

#173
Doug, thank you for your response.
What really scares me to think if we had not locked down sports events and bars.
20,000 spectators cramped into a hockey arena, many of them drunk, sceaming and yelling their heads off.
Ditto for bars.

#179 Sail Away on 07.12.20 at 12:49 pm

#177 Stoph on 07.12.20 at 12:36 pm

I was thinking that Norbert’s Gambit would be particularly useful for blog dogs who take SoggyShorts’ advice and end up moving their US exposure in their RRSPs from a CAD to a USD account.

————-

Good point, and yes, if you’re doing it in a registered account, it should definitely be done with Norbert’s gambit.

#180 n1tro on 07.12.20 at 1:03 pm

#144 BillyBob on 07.12.20 at 4:27 am
#93 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 6:34 pm
———-
I’m glad your friend is alive and well because of the measures he received at the private hospital with their private equipment and private technologies.

Having said that, my bias is just the same as yours but let’s not be disingenuous and pretend my statement of Vietnam not having the “technology and rigor” to deal with covid-19 as to mean they have NO technology or are UNABLE to do tests.

Vietnam has 90M people, their infrastructure that is suppose to support its people during normal times is shameful compared to what we have in the west.

So let’s not suspend reality too much for readers who haven’t been to Vietnam to believe it has some sort of rigor like daily testing or enough ventilators for its 90M population.

The closest article I can find regarding Vietnam’s testing is seen here.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vietnam-fight-insi-idUSKBN22B34H

Things to note…as of end of April, 213K tests were supposedly performed. “Laboratories” increased from 3 to 112.

Sounds great until you think about it. 96M population according to article, 213K tests…. so 0.22% of the population tested.

3 labs to 112 to test those 213K tests….laboratories built from the ground up? That’s amazing if that were the case but did you notice that makeshift tent in the article with the lab techs doing the testing out in the open air? I’m going to bet the 109 new “laboratories” are those.

So why would Vietnam want to have the perception of being on top of the corona virus when modern countries are struggling?

Read the article a little further and maybe you can get a glimpse…

Vietnam is positioning itself as a safe place to do business.

Reuters could not independently verify the accuracy of the government’s testing data. The Vietnamese government did not reply to questions about its data and the extent of its awareness of virus-related cases. The two officials leading the country’s efforts against the virus were not made available for interviews to answer questions about their work. “

#181 SoggyShorts on 07.12.20 at 1:30 pm

#177 Stoph on 07.12.20 at 12:36 pm
#136 Sail Away on 07.11.20 at 10:22 pm
#116 Stoph on 07.11.20 at 8:14 pm
#83 SoggyShorts on 07.11.20 at 5:28 pm
#24 Stoph on 07.11.20 at 12:36 pm
#6 haylor_taylor on 07.11.20 at 10:53 am
—————–
Don’t forget to use Norbert’s Gambit when exchanging large amounts of CAD into USD or vice versa to save currency exchange fees. YouTube’s has some good how-to videos.
—————–
Try Canadian Couch Potato and Bogleheads websites- lots of portfolios there. Also, I’ve moved to Transferwise for exchanging instead of Norbert’s. Nothing wrong with Norbert’s but it is a bit more cumbersome.
************************
I use questrade and only need norbert’s about once per year- they seem to be pretty quick about it although I have nothing to compare it to.

What do you have for USD:CAD weighting? My 30% just kinda happened that way.

#182 SoggyShorts on 07.12.20 at 1:35 pm

#106 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 7:35 pm
#73 SoggyShorts on 07.11.20 at 4:44 pm

Remember, people were wearing masks from the start and then were told to NOT wear them because they were ineffective,

This is a combination of 2 major factors
1. They were worried about a lack of masks for hospital workers which, based on those pricks who bought up everything and tried to sell it on Ebay/Amazon seemed a bit justified
2. It was poorly explained that wearing a mask keeps others safer from your droplets.

then are told masks “can” help prevent the spread.
Yes. As the fear of running out of masks for front line workers was reduced and the understanding of how simple masks reduce the spread was better explained & understood changes in recommendations and policy were made

But now it is seems it is scientific fact our fabric masks are going to make the difference?
Perhaps not THE difference, but A difference most certainly.

Ok, so how effective are they to airborne covid-19?
Greater than zero.

Do you see a need for any studies now or is it obvious of what the results are??
Absolutely, in order to determine what masks are best, but I do not believe a study is required to determine if any mask> no mask, and the easy answer is to wear what you can while in public until such information is available.

#183 SoggyShorts on 07.12.20 at 1:46 pm

#115 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 8:08 pm
#92 YouKnowWho on 07.11.20 at 6:15 pm
Masks?
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/should-you-wear-a-face-mask-heres-all-the-data-we-have/?amp=1

They found that the N95 equivalent mask blocked more than 95 percent of all particles, as expected. The surgical mask was around 40 percent effective, with the dental masks coming in at around 60 percent. Cotton masks were around 30 percent effective and cotton handkerchiefs ranged from 2 percent (one layer) to 13 percent (four layers).

***********************
Seems to me like all of those numbers are greater than zero.

What exactly are the arguments against mask-wearing?
“it might only be somewhat effective at blocking transmission”
But better than nothing.
“It may cause people to have a false sense of security”
1. There’s no proof of this, and it is just as likely(if not more so) that seeing everyone wearing masks would have the opposite effect since it serves as a stark reminder of the virus and would, therefore, remind people to keep their distance.
2. It’s a bit of cognitive dissonance that people who “know” this problem don’t wear masks… I mean if you know the sense of security is false, then there’s no problem for you so why would this effect you wearing one?
“you might touch your face more”
Wearing a mask is something you can get used to like switching from contacts to glasses, and maybe we should- even if this epidemic isn’t so bad, there’s a real possibility that the next one will be. Note how those countries who were affected the most by SARS have dealt with COVID rather well.
“people wear their masks wrong, don’t clean/replace them enough etc”
Again, this is something that can be learned. Why do we think we can teach people to hand wash and keep 2m apart, but adding a 3rd thing is impossible?

#184 SoggyShorts on 07.12.20 at 1:53 pm

#93 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 6:34 pm
#37 Don Guillermo on 07.11.20 at 1:26 pm
#151 BillyBob on 07.11.20 at 11:39 am

So stop admiring a communist country and the propaganda it shows to make people think it is a first world country. It isn’t unless you got money. So ~300 cases covid cases confirmed and zero deaths?? It’s called “NOT REPORTING”.

*********************
This is just so crazy.
Here are the things you apparently believe:
1. The hospital system in Vietnam is utter trash for the average local.
2. They didn’t beat the virus (so presumably it’s spreading like other countries?)
3. There are real videos of people lining up to buy supplies which “prove” Vietnam’s incompetence at handling the virus …and yet:
4. It’s totally normal that there are no videos or news of any kind about the hundreds of thousands (millions?) of COVID deaths that must be happening if 1-3 above are true.

Have I got that right?

#185 Keyboard Smasher on 07.12.20 at 2:14 pm

” Has the President contributed to the US’s divisiveness and the spike in new cases?”

One hears the leftists claiming daily that Trump is “divisive.” I did my best to ignore that usage but it is so pervasive that I am forced to take note.

Doug, what you and your kind mean of course is that Trump and the conservatives do not accept the new dispensation of the gospel truth spread by the left. This automatically causes a division of opinion. This is clearly a very bad thing in your