The temptation

What did the nation’s housing agency mean when it warned about a ‘deferral cliff’? (Because it appears most people think this is a nothingburger.)

Housing Armageddon, apparently. After all, about 750,000 households are currently withholding payments on $180 billion in mortgage debt, blaming the virus. One third of the Canadian workforce is unemployed (despite this week’s stats). According to the feds, the jobless rate will still be 10% by the end of the year and 8% (at least) well into 2021. And what if there’s a second Covid wave? Or a busload of germy Arizonians sneak across the border and wipe out, say, Windsor or White Rock?

Mortgage deferrals were for six months only, and that ends in September. CMHC’s point is simple: thousands – maybe tens of thousands – of people with houses won’t be abe to resume making payments because they lack employment. That would trigger a wave of defaults, foreclosures, powers of sale and oodles of new listings. It’s one reason the agency warned Canadians that real estate values could fall over the next year by 18%.

So why were sales in the GTA up over 80% pushing prices 12% year/year? Don’t people know what might be coming? Don’t they care? Why would you buy when there’s a cliff ahead? Are they listening to their moms instead of reading this pathetic blog and preparing?

Here’ the current thinking: next month the federal Liberals will announce a mortgage deferral extension. Four more months, maybe, to January. So almost a year’s worth of unpaid interest will be heaped on the backs of borrowers, but spare them from making monthly payments. It’s not a holiday from debt, but a giant exercise in kicking the can down the road and hoping for an economic miracle, come 2021. What a gamble. And it’s a fair bet most of the deferral folks have no idea how damaging this could be.

First, deferrals will not be automatic this time. The banks will extend them only to people in need. In other words, to qualify you’ll have to prove the virus stole your income, materially affected your ability to finance your debts and that you are without the resources to meet your contractual obligation. That, in itself, is a problem. Credit will be damaged in the eyes of the lender as you’re flagged a future credit risk. How could it be otherwise? Common sense.

Similar extensions have been announced in Britain and also house-horny Australia, Banks are being allowed to offer the deferrals – which impact their cash flow and asset base performance – without having to pony up new capital to offset the losses. Ottawa will do the same. But unless you 100% cannot pay your mortgage after Labour Day, don’t even apply.

The following words from a mortgage industry publication might be helpful in explaining the obvious, which is that mortgage deferrals will always be noticed, noted and could have credit consequences. The journal reports discussions with brokers on the misinformation most borrowers have about deferrals:

The broker explains that a customer showed them the most recent credit report he had received from his Big Six lender. Prominently featured multiple times was the phrase “Mortgage Deferred Payment Plan”.

“This is the first time we’ve seen this on a credit report,” the broker says.

Alerting other lenders to a client’s inability to pay a mortgage is neither new nor nefarious. But it’s worth asking: How many homeowners who opted to defer their mortgages did so under the assumption that their situations would be looked at differently because COVID-19 was the sole reason behind their inability to pay? There could be thousands of homeowners now facing the prospect of dragging their damaged credit reports, which they assumed would remain healthy even after deferring their payments, to lenders who will now have far less interest in working with them.

As reported here previously, credit bureaus (we have but two) aren’t listing deferred payments as missed ones, eroding credit scores, but lenders certainly are internally. Says another broker: “Our theory was that if you go and defer a bunch of payments with, let’s say, Scotiabank, and then you go to Scotia for a refinance, that’s probably not going to look good.”

Besides bruising credit, deferrals cost money. Debt totals rise and future payments will increase as a result. Those who skipped them to buy hot tubs, build decks, put in new kitchen counters or flow the cash into their TFSAs might regret it. Ironically people deferring would be better off to save the cash then make a lump sum payment against their home loan. But that wouldn’t feel like sticking it to the bank. Would it?

In conclusion, mortgage deferrals will be extended. The prime minister will stare at you with moist eyes and make you feel like he’s personally paying it for you. If you have no job, no income and no money to feed your family and pay your debt, defer. Then sell the damn house. Before the next crisis.

About the picture: “Long time reader of your blog every morning.  Coffee time would just not be the same without it,” says Mac. “My daughter caught a cool photo of her husband and Cache, a young Blue Heeler, racing for a stick at One Island Lake near Dawson Creek, BC. Thank you kindly for your time and efforts in producing a financial blog which benefits many Canadians.  I wish even more of us read it.”

155 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 07.10.20 at 1:20 pm

Working on my new book: “How to talk to a Branch Covidian – if you must.”
I did today. A fascinating study into the mind control methods that were applied to us.

Let me give you concrete examples. The methods of programming, re-programming minds have been perfected, for decades.

1.An acceptable method of programming is the Military. As I understand it new recruits are separated from family, friends, routines. Confined to barracks for a few weeks they learn and are inspected on new small routines and rituals – which must be daily performed.
New haircuts and titles and ranks are given. Uniforms and combat equipment is issued including masks, gloves, shields.
The recruit is completely dependent upon their new system, for food, clothing, shelter.
Stressful and even traumatic situations and training taked place. The person learns to fit it and work as a team. “They are all in this together” (you see where I’m going with this). Ultimately they learn and grow.

2.What happened in March, the start of WW3?
We were separated from our friends, family and routines. Confined to homes. We were given new rituals and daily routines. In stores, people with clipboards inspected and corrected us on these routines. Stand on your mark please.
New, long hair was taking place (not a problem for myself but..).
Supply chains became disrupted (this is what occurs during wartime) and we were wholly dependent upon the global companies like Zoom, Amazon, Apple, Walmart.
We were given new titles and ranks like Essential, Non-Essential, Asymptomatic, Spreader, Super Spreader, Karen.
New uniforms were given: masks, gloves, face shields. These are combat items – to be used against our fellow mankind (the enemy).
People also snitched on their new enemies, reporting them to authorities.
We were destroyed.

Military terms were used daily:.
– You know a tracer bullet. Now we got contact tracers.
– As per Wikipedia ‘Distancing’ is combat term and premise.
– We were called disease vectors.

Conclusion: this will be a usual multi year global battle and will end only once we surrender – our rights. Especially travel rights.
This has always been a biggie to our rulers.
#stayhome they told us on Day one right?

#2 Alex on 07.10.20 at 1:27 pm

Another thing seems an easy bet: most with a subprime mortgage will be toast. As will subprime lenders – they have too much bad debt.

#3 Just in True dough on 07.10.20 at 1:29 pm

Good point and it’s completely common sense, like the law of action and reaction. Still, after talking to a coworker about the topic, I realized that probably most of the people think their mortgage deferral will have no impact on their credit score, since it had government ‘blessing’…

#4 Alex on 07.10.20 at 1:46 pm

@#2 hey, I’m Alex!

Anyway, this whole thing just makes me sad… Can’t we just allow a market correction and be done with it? Why does Trudeau need to cuddle everyone? And of course, why do responsible people need to pay for the ones who borrowed too much? So frustrating, this thing.

I hope the banks defer the deferrals…

#5 MF on 07.10.20 at 1:50 pm

1 TurnerNation on 07.10.20 at 1:20 pm

Hey TurnerNation,

Watch the following video:

https://youtu.be/clscC120ZQM

Cliffs:

-Famous youtuber (2 million followers) named “Bald and Bankrupt” goes on vacation and films his experiences.
-Doesn’t take Covid seriously. Probably thought it was all made up by “muh elites”
-Continues travelling and ignoring all safety precautions.
-absent for a month.
-Finally posts that he contracted Covid. Tried to ignore it. Ended up in hospital. Saw others pass on. Now trying to tell everyone how serious it can be.

I guess the shadowy elites got to him /sarcasm

Stay safe everyone.

MF

#6 Doubtful on 07.10.20 at 1:50 pm

It’s all common sense. All the data point to trouble for the housing market due to over-extended credit, and now Covid. So, why do I feel in a years time we’ll be watching the market rising again? We’ve been talking about an unhealthy housing market for a dozen years, and yet here we are. We don’t own a home and have zero debt with a healthy investment account, however, I wish I had bought a few years ago. Eighteen percent loss, so what? That only takes us back a coupe years in home values.

#7 the Jaguar on 07.10.20 at 1:56 pm

Can’t believe we were not advised who got to the stick first, Cache the Blue Heeler or the husband who looks very fit with good dive off stance.

So if the perps ( yeah, I said it ) who want more mortgage deferrals approach their Bank for extensions of mercy and they are not going to be ‘automatic’ it sounds like a ‘full disclosure’ request. All people on title ( that means you mom & dad ) will need to provide that full disclosure. That means how much and what are the sources of household income, including CERB. Remember CRA can audit those files any time they feel inclined to do so.
Deferrals would be acknowledged in writing by borrowers, so the permanent record would be there regardless of any credit bureau failures.
The person asking the questions might also want to ask how many other household members are also receiving CERB funds which contribute to household expenses, but they won’t be able to do that. They’ll just sit back, smile, and make their guess based on all the electronic data they have in front of them. It’s quite a lot. Hiding from your Bank is like hiding in plain sight to the trained eye.
People who ‘game the system’ are morally bankrupt and the evidence is generally everywhere. I vote ‘no’ for throwing them a lifeline when they can get their sorry ass back to work.

#8 Alex on 07.10.20 at 1:59 pm

Couldn’t they arrange for the mortgages to become interest payment only? Or something in between full pay and zero pay?
Can’t people, for once, be held responsible for their poor decisions?
I feel like I am going mad.

#9 Alex on 07.10.20 at 2:03 pm

@ Turner Nation

I hope you find peace, mister. I hope you realize not everyone is out to get you. I hope you listen to doctors and experts. They are 100% unanimous and fact-based. Mask wearing is not a big deal when compared to what is going on in hospitals around the world. Check out Texas and Florida nowadays.

#10 Ejy on 07.10.20 at 2:03 pm

I am hearing several people say they are deferring mortgage payments just because they can, to buy a swimming pool etc., thinking they are saving cash. I wonder what percentage of deferrals are those of the “it’s free money so take it” crowd?

#11 Scott on 07.10.20 at 2:05 pm

Well said sir .
Maybe Mr. Turdeau can pay some people to speak at one of his functions for some cash and they can avoid this whole kick the can B.S. .

#12 Paully on 07.10.20 at 2:06 pm

Great picture today!!

#13 Doug t on 07.10.20 at 2:07 pm

I’m with TurnerNation- things are so crazy in the world that “crazy” ideas are actually the reality that is shaping up around us

#14 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 2:11 pm

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/bill-morneau-has-family-ties-to-we-charity-did-not-steer-clear-of-cabinet-discussion-of-contract/ar-BB16AouT?ocid=msedgntp

Is anyone shocked anymore?

#15 wheretonow on 07.10.20 at 2:12 pm

Ya really wonder if Trudeau and gang will keep paying for everyone’s mistakes forever. Yes people are in over their heads in monster houses, over their head in luxury vehicle payments, over their head in luxury vacation payments. It seems a little pain in loosing some of their “entitlements” will help them learn a few lessons and be smarter in the future. The people who became new Canadians in the 1950’s started with nothing, received nothing from the government and went on to become smart business owners. They saved for what they wanted and worked hard. Trudeau’s hand outs are making people on CERB soft with not much work ethic…….. Guess the income tax rates are going to sky rocket in the near future to pay for peoples greed and inability to control their spending and learn to save for a rainy day. Duh…save… Duh what does that word mean ??

#16 Montana Bob on 07.10.20 at 2:14 pm

Well, it won’t be so simple to stop deferrals. Banks look for their own business. Every case will be reviewed separately. Banks don’t want to lose anything. So, if they see that people have equity in the house, they could extend the deferral for a year. Why not ? If you hold large mortgage and large equity, accrued interest will be not very high, compared to principal.
The least things bank need is a large quantity of foreclosed houses in same time, so they will avoid that.
Also, people who lost jobs have severance packages, unemployment, credit cards, lines of credit… I don’t believe it will get very ugly in October, not even in March. For those things, more time will be needed to evaporate.
Income from rents what landlords are getting will slowly go down. Someone will pay, someone will defer. But, it will take some time to feel the pain.
What I believe, is we will experience slow process of correction, won’t be sudden. I expect prices to drop slowly, in a period of 5 to 7 years, if not more. Similar to Japan cycle.
Cheers

#17 Comrade on 07.10.20 at 2:15 pm

Stories like this make me think that saving, financial responsibility is thing of past.

Mainly because governments will do everything in their power to save indebted nation and keep real estate afloat as that where majority of voters are.

The question is how long you can keep kicking the can down the road, as the bad news doesn’t age well.

#18 Brian Ripley on 07.10.20 at 2:16 pm

My 6 biggest Canadian cities housing chart is up:

http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

​In June 2020 Montreal and Ottawa single family detached prices hit new highs as buyers bid up prices in Toronto as well in their SF detached prices.

There was not as much moxie in Vancouver where the absorption rate is 21% vs Toronto at 62%.

The animal spirits are inflamed with desire. Perhaps their hard bets on real estate are a result of the sky high stock markets which require its equity sellers to liquidate to furnish new stock price highs and perhaps those same sellers are moving cash from “paper” assets to physical housing despite the potential for a housing “correction”.

Clearly there are still many who don’t view widespread negative rental returns in the housing sector as a risk or impediment to owning a physical asset that depreciates over time especially if one lives in it and can afford it.

Perhaps this “cliff risk” is just a reflection of the wealth gap.

We know from the PBO (parliamentary budget office) that 80% of Canadian households have less than $100,000 of net worth, charts here:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/household-net-worth

Maybe it’s the top 20% of households that are bidding up prices.

#19 Lambchop on 07.10.20 at 2:16 pm

#242 kingston boy on 07.10.20 at 1:47 pm
@#241 Lambchop on 07.10.20 at 1:39 pm
Well, Bloc leader Blanchet has called for Trudeau to step down from office during the WE investigation, saying “he cannot be considered to be qualified to do the job”

https://thepostmillennial.com/bloc-leader-trudeau-step-aside

Sooo, if Jagmeet gets on board, does Trudeau have to step aside? Would be hard for Jagmeet to bite the hand that feeds though.

Interesting times.
It seems like Canadians may actually have had enough of him. Lots of hate on twitter, which means nothing to me but seems to hold sway with public opinion.

—–

love to see freeland take over

__________

At this point, my dog would do a better job. At least she has the ability to follow rules, and can apply a singular focus to an objective.
She also never lies to me and even when she occasionally steals from me, she always brings it back undamaged a week later.

#20 YouKnowWho on 07.10.20 at 2:17 pm

Garth,

Landlords are getting the shaft. Tenants aren’t paying. Government is saying on official sites “You Don’t Have to Pay Rent.” Housing is a human right. Yesterday you noted how the couple can’t sell because they can’t get rid of the tenant who’s not paying.

Extrapolate further.
Banks are landlords. Mortgage holders who are residents are tenants. If they stop paying can they be evicted? Housing is a human right remember. Worse case, what if you sign a lease agreement with yourself as an extra layer of protection?

I see a lot of parallels here Garth. Banks are landlords.

#21 Dave on 07.10.20 at 2:18 pm

You said previously No more defers after 6 months….sounded like a guarantee from Garth!!!

If the government can defer 4 more months….then why not 4 after that until this virus goes away.

#22 Piano_Man87 on 07.10.20 at 2:21 pm

#6 Doubtful on 07.10.20 at 1:50 pm
It’s all common sense. All the data point to trouble for the housing market due to over-extended credit, and now Covid. So, why do I feel in a years time we’ll be watching the market rising again? We’ve been talking about an unhealthy housing market for a dozen years, and yet here we are.

“Markets can remain irrational far longer than you or I can remain solvent” – John Maynard Keynes.

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.10.20 at 2:26 pm

“Kicking the mortgage can down the road….”

++++

Well the Realtors out here in the lower brainland will pull the “wave of 300,000 Dual citizen Hong Kong buyers” out of a hat….to send the FOMO crowd into paroxysms of panic buying.

Lets see how many FOMO’s qualify for a mortgage in a few more months…..

#24 IHCTD9 on 07.10.20 at 2:28 pm

#227 Keen Reader on 07.10.20 at 11:17 am
@ 219 IHCTD9

I paid my fair share, plus lost out on the higher private sector wages and reduced RRSP contribution room. My team members and I have contributed lifetimes-worth to this country, so I have no shame whatsoever reaping my benefits. Especially considering my dozens of friends and coworkers who died in operations… Signing-off now, got more contributing to do :o)
——

Buddy, your “fair share” in funding your retirement is 100%.

Your entire post reeks of entitlement.

#25 Attrition on 07.10.20 at 2:30 pm

It is a nothingburger Garth, and you know it.


Mortgage deferrals were for six months only, and that ends in September. CMHC’s point is simple: thousands – maybe tens of thousands – of people with houses won’t be abe to resume making payments because they lack employment. That would trigger a wave of defaults, foreclosures, powers of sale and oodles of new listings…

So all those little beavers who deferred payments for 6 or so months, come Sept, won’t even be able to scratch together a single payment? So that’s it – straight to housing Armageddon?

It’s not like all the deferred payments are due come Sept. It’s one bleeding mortgage payment man, come on. I know you’re generally down on RE Garth, but you’re also better than this.

And this tells me you may hold average non-elite Canadians in rather low esteem. Plenty of people deferred payments because they could, not because they had to. Smart move when things are volatile.

Yet some unelected snivel servants or arms-length crown corp bureaucrats can make dire predictions easily enough and possibly even for nefarious reasons–but isn’t it sort of your role to temper the noise for your flock?

Nothingburger folks.

Anyone want to take a guess at the sheer number of real estate investors–individuals and institutional–who are chomping at the bit, as they sit on piles of cash, just waiting to buy up every hard asset if and when they go on sale?

Oh, no, right, cause that never happens every single time. My bad.

Eyes open folks–minds too if you please.

#26 Eco Capitalist on 07.10.20 at 2:33 pm

@#5 MF,

THE shadowy elite reaps everyone in the end. Being anywhere near his waiting room has been known to change people’s paradigms.

#27 IHCTD9 on 07.10.20 at 2:33 pm

“…but a giant exercise in kicking the can down the road and hoping for an economic miracle“
— –

We need a Canadian Wirtschaftswunder, right Ponzi?

#28 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 2:34 pm

#5 MF on 07.10.20 at 1:50 pm
1 TurnerNation on 07.10.20 at 1:20 pm

Hey TurnerNation,

Watch the following video:

https://youtu.be/clscC120ZQM
—————-
Seriously? You are going to put up 1 example of a guy who caught covid with severe symptoms as your justification for the hysteria that is going on?

For every 1 example of someone suffering severely with covid-19, there are 99 examples of people that will get through it just fine and you know it.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

No one wants to catch covid-19. But if you do catch it, statistically you should be ok. Yeah, yeah, yeah…tell that to the ones that have died. People die. Can’t control it no matter how well intentioned you are.

#29 binky barnes on 07.10.20 at 2:38 pm

Our PM is the perfect leader for this ‘mommy/daddy look after me forever’ group of Canadians that seems to be getting larger and larger. Hugs and cuddles for everybody, and nobody has to grow up and assume any financial responsibility.

BB

#30 T on 07.10.20 at 2:41 pm

#171 n1tro on 07.09.20 at 10:15 pm
#149 T on 07.09.20 at 8:21 pm

The whole point of wearing masks is to trap virus laden phlegm and saliva leaving one’s mouth, preventing it from becoming airborne and contaminating surfaces.

Masks are very effective at this and helping to prevent the spread. This is why we should all wear them while in public spaces.
————-
Effective? Says who? Even the WHO won’t even say this outright. Read their website carefully and look at all the CYA (cover your ass) words they have around masks.

Ever watch the movie Outbreak (1995)? The scene where they realize that the one infected patient in an isolated room somehow infected another in a separate room through the air ducts? If that doesn’t tell you why a simple masks won’t do squat when it comes to airborne viruses, I don’t know how to explain this anymore clearly.

If you want prevent of an airborne virus, think of a physical bubble around everyone that is infected with the air being filtered 24/7 until they recover.

For faster results, gather all the infected in their bubbles and put them somewhere remote and call in a F-14 to drop a fuel air bomb.

—————

Too much nonsense here to even debate.

Using a movie as evidence, WHO verbiage as it relates to self protection and not addressing community transmission, and mass killing.

Wow. Just ridiculous.

#31 jess on 07.10.20 at 2:45 pm

the headline doesn’t seem to match the outcome
https://www.canadalandshow.com/crime-and-fraud-at-we-charity-in-kenya/

March 19, 2018 — eight months after Marc Kielburger says he recorded, at the request of the Kenyan police, Ruhiu recounting what he had described as “criminal offences.”
“Clear protocols were followed”

According to Howard Winkler, counsel for WE Charity, the investigation into Peter Ruhiu was a success for WE and the integrity of the organization was restored.

Read Winkler’s full response below.
Email statement and attachments from Howard Winkler, counsel to WE Charity:
Ruhiu was terminated and charged by Kenyan police with a variety of crimes, to which he signed a witnessed confession.
=====================
WE’s links to child labour reverse social progress | The Journal
http://www.queensjournal.ca › story › editorials › wes-use-of-…
Oct 19, 2018 – An organization that built its name on the back of abolishing child … October 19, 2018. Canadaland’s investigation incorrectly included Kellogg’s as a partner of the WE … It is not and the article’s reference to the brand has been removed. … This article incorrectly stated that ME to WE made $47 million off …

“This story has been updated with the WE organization’s response(link is external) to Canadaland’s claims.

Corrections
October 19, 2018

Canadaland’s investigation incorrectly included Kellogg’s as a partner of the WE organization. It is not and the article’s reference to the brand has been removed.

The Journal regrets the error.
October 19, 2018

This article incorrectly stated that ME to WE made $47 million off corporate partnerships. In fact, it was the charity, WE. ME to WE has also met its 50 per cent donation requirements to WE.

The Journal regrets the error.
October 20, 2018

The article has been ammended to reflect WE is not a business,

despite its social enterprise firm Me to We contributing revenue to the organization.

#32 G on 07.10.20 at 2:46 pm

With unemployment being so high, why wasn’t the PM T not at the meeting with out biggest trading partner the other day, with the Mexican President present?

#33 IHCTD9 on 07.10.20 at 2:46 pm

#14 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 2:11 pm
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/bill-morneau-has-family-ties-to-we-charity-did-not-steer-clear-of-cabinet-discussion-of-contract/ar-BB16AouT?ocid=msedgntp

Is anyone shocked anymore?
——

Unbelievable.

We’ll still vote ‘em back in again though.

Canada’s biggest problem… is Canadians.

#34 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 2:52 pm

#30 T on 07.10.20 at 2:41 pm
#171 n1tro on 07.09.20 at 10:15 pm
#149 T on 07.09.20 at 8:21 pm

Too much nonsense here to even debate.

Using a movie as evidence, WHO verbiage as it relates to self protection and not addressing community transmission, and mass killing.

Wow. Just ridiculous.
——————
So basically you have no counter and will dismiss everything as “ridiculous”? Got it.

I used the movie reference to dumb it down for you hoping you see the difference between how to prevent spread of a virus that is spread via droplets (wearing a mask) vs. airborne (full hazmat suit with filters).

Thanks for coming out and keep on wearing your mask!

#35 G on 07.10.20 at 2:54 pm

Some might be interested, or not.
I found this talk show last week that contains snippets of interesting info. Some might need to get there tinfoil out. And you’ll need the time to listen, which not everyone has. I think she posts on YouTube too.
https://redstatetalkradio.com/tore/

#36 Sail Away on 07.10.20 at 2:57 pm

I always feel so left out when the topics are mortgages, renters and debt. Sigh…

#37 Oracle of Ottawa on 07.10.20 at 2:57 pm

A deferral of payment on a credit report won’t stop the bank from offering them a renewal. They would rather have a client on shaky footing than no client at all. All the client would have to do is go to another bank or a “B” lender. If it wasn’t for the Gov’t stepping in, the banks would already be lending to this kind or worse.

Don’t be so sure. – Garth

#38 NoName on 07.10.20 at 2:59 pm

Did anyone sow lumber price lately?

Here is an interesting chart.

https://www.grufity.com/historical-data-chart-graph/GOLD.LUMBER/Gold-to-Lumber-Ratio

And note for hard asset people, skip a gold get hard wood it 2x better returns.

#39 Overheardyou on 07.10.20 at 3:08 pm

This really sounds like the revelation from The Big Short….when they found out the credit rating agencies were full of it and it really was a rigged game.

#40 Faron on 07.10.20 at 3:10 pm

#30 T on 07.10.20 at 2:41 pm
#171 n1tro on 07.09.20 at 10:15 pm
#149 T on 07.09.20 at 8:21 pm

“…think of a physical bubble around everyone.”

Tellin’ you, Zorbs are the wave of our COVID future. EZ rollin’ transit for all. Virus? Get outta town! Burning man 24/7/365!

#41 IHCTD9 on 07.10.20 at 3:10 pm

#36 Sail Away on 07.10.20 at 2:57 pm
I always feel so left out when the topics are mortgages, renters and debt. Sigh…
—-

We could always spark up an titillating discussion on mushrooms foraging, steelhead, and grayling fishing?

Or even better, a riveting debate on the merits of track layers over wheeled tractors (I might be a bit biased…).

High intellect discussions for the Canadian elite such as these would be welcome on this blog.

#42 Guelph Guru on 07.10.20 at 3:15 pm

In Guelph, house prices have shot up. Unaffordable homes become well, more unaffordable. For a long time, I wonder why would anyone want to buy a 1mil house in Guelph. But apparently a lot of folks are spending a mil. This year my friends have crowned me the Greatest fool for my opinions about Guelph real estate. Well I have been wrong for a long time. If housing market stays put inspite of the income losses we should all say “Things are different this time”. Where have I heard this before?

#43 Dolce Vita on 07.10.20 at 3:20 pm

Lipstick on a pig…

The June 2020 Labour Force Survey Infographic 1 states that June still short 443,000 in Labour Force size vs. February, ‘000’s:

Unemployed “Official” = 2452.6
MIA (COVID didn’t kill them) = 443
Actual Unemployed = 2,895.6
June Labour Force = 19,880.0

% Unemployment = 14.6% (12.3% “Official”)

———————–

…is still a pig.

#44 Yuus bin Haad on 07.10.20 at 3:21 pm

Retrieving a stick thrown from the dock is great sport – and I bet the dog thinks so too!

#45 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 07.10.20 at 3:30 pm

Stay in the GTA you southern hillbillies!

Don’t come up here. Got it? Good!

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/toronto-area-drivers-americans-being-threatened-in-ontario-s-cottage-country-1.4986572

(I hear that if you do come up, better invest in some scratch remover and a tire pump. Not my doing or endorsement, just a reality. Watch out for broken windows and microchip geotags being put on cars as well. People here are fed up with you.)

#46 IHCTD9 on 07.10.20 at 3:35 pm

BTW Sail, I saw this the other day and thought of you and your tesla:

https://www.caranddriver.com/gmc/hummer-ev

1000 hp, 0-60 in 3.0, 400 mile range, likely ~100k CAD.

GM needs a slap for that torque rating though. I’m not even going to print it here. What does GM think, we’re all a bunch of idiots?

Regardless, it’ll undoubtedly tow like a diesel. Pretty sweet.

This is the only EV that has ever stirred my loins, ‘course I loved the original H2’s too…

Tesla needs to have a good look at this unit, and then quietly get rid of that ice scraper thingie they’re calling a truck :).

#47 Sail Away on 07.10.20 at 3:39 pm

#41 IHCTD9 on 07.10.20 at 3:10 pm
#36 Sail Away on 07.10.20 at 2:57 pm

I always feel so left out when the topics are mortgages, renters and debt. Sigh…

————–

We could always spark up an titillating discussion on mushrooms foraging, steelhead, and grayling fishing?

Or even better, a riveting debate on the merits of track layers over wheeled tractors (I might be a bit biased…).

High intellect discussions for the Canadian elite such as these would be welcome on this blog.

————–

Whew! Speaking of that, when’s your BBQ? I’ve picked up a few 12t bottle jacks and have an appt with your tracked machine…

#48 NoName on 07.10.20 at 3:42 pm

Just came back from big smoke, drove from markham to steels than across to bayview than accross broadway to young and down to gardiner.

Noone in right mind would do that on friday afternoon, but in interest of people kind and benefit for the science i had to…

What bring me to the point 40-45 min and it would probably be faster if i new that they blocked young around somwhere between mid town and down town. I think i broke some kind of record or two and i wasn’t even speeding.

Didnt see MF or TN, actualy i sow very few people comparing it to what i remember before i see more people walking during a storms… yng/dun 5 people in a middle of square looking around confused…

#49 tkid on 07.10.20 at 3:42 pm

So if you deferred the mortgage payments, if you go to sell your current home and buy another, the banks may not approve the next mortgage? Or will they just add a percentage or two in interest?

This’ll put a crimp in trading up houses if true, but the first time home buyers will still buy. Won’t see the impact for a few years tho’.

#50 DownToFinance on 07.10.20 at 3:43 pm

More deferrals? Wow, housing crash cancelled. House prices really do only go up.

#51 tkid on 07.10.20 at 3:45 pm

Check your vaccination cards. If you received the tuberculosis BCG jab, you may have some immunity.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/07/07/2008410117

#52 T on 07.10.20 at 3:53 pm

#34 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 2:52 pm
#30 T on 07.10.20 at 2:41 pm
#171 n1tro on 07.09.20 at 10:15 pm
#149 T on 07.09.20 at 8:21 pm

Too much nonsense here to even debate.

Using a movie as evidence, WHO verbiage as it relates to self protection and not addressing community transmission, and mass killing.

Wow. Just ridiculous.
——————
So basically you have no counter and will dismiss everything as “ridiculous”? Got it.

I used the movie reference to dumb it down for you hoping you see the difference between how to prevent spread of a virus that is spread via droplets (wearing a mask) vs. airborne (full hazmat suit with filters).

Thanks for coming out and keep on wearing your mask!

————

You’re definitely dumbing things down. It certainly has nothing to do with me and certainly not your first or last post to do so.

#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.10.20 at 3:57 pm

#27 IHCTD9 on 07.10.20 at 2:33 pm
“…but a giant exercise in kicking the can down the road and hoping for an economic miracle“
— –

We need a Canadian Wirtschaftswunder, right Ponzi?
—————————-
Giving the circumstances, me thinks we’re doing ok.
The whole world is in the shits right now.
Everything is relative. I know most blog dogs hate our Prime Minister, but he’s doing what is prudent giving the circumstances.
Hate to live in the States right now. They are closing up again. Wait until you see July’s unemployment numbers.
Kudos to Trudeau to snub the Prez. He knows that there will be another body in the White House next year.

#54 bob on 07.10.20 at 3:57 pm

Two questions:

1) Thoughts on exodus of Hong Kong’s mobile and wealthy to Canada? And thereby, increasing housing demand?

2) Can landlords also affect renters credit history too if they don’t pay?

#55 TheDood on 07.10.20 at 4:02 pm

#25 Attrition on 07.10.20 at 2:30 pm
…..
And this tells me you may hold average non-elite Canadians in rather low esteem. Plenty of people deferred payments because they could, not because they had to. Smart move when things are volatile….
_________________________

Smart move when things are volatile?? Since when is kicking the debt can down the road a good idea? Especially if you have a job and income. Good lord! Any average non-elite Canadian doing this is an idiot.

#56 Faron on 07.10.20 at 4:04 pm

Love the picture today Garth. Human wins the race to the stick, blue heeler then proudly steals stick from human is my prediction. Regardless, looks like a nice taste of summer which is something that has not yet appeared here in SW BC.

#57 A J on 07.10.20 at 4:05 pm

Lets be real, people will not do anything or change their lifestyle/behaviours because there is absolutely no consequences for anything at this point. People can do and act however they want because risk no longer exists in housing. The market keeps getting saved to save our economy. And those of us sitting on the sidelines remain there wondering if the savers will ever have their day. Or if reward for debt and overspending will continue as not to destroy our fragile and overleveraged economy.

#58 Frank on 07.10.20 at 4:22 pm

Garth – what is your projection for housing in the GTA with the deferral cliff being extended? We bought in the GTA in 2018 and are thinking of cashing out as our house it up about $200k. Transaction costs/maintenance costs eat up most of the profit, but we will get a lot of equity out that be used on a cheaper house outside of the GTA. Should we move fast or do you think we have some more time?

#59 MF on 07.10.20 at 4:32 pm

#28 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 2:34 pm

Yup. I am.

And by the way, it’s “one guy” with 2 million subscribers to his channel, which is all about him travelling.

It’s someone who has everything to lose by posting something like his story, and nothing to gain.

MF

#60 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.10.20 at 4:34 pm

#239 Faron on 07.10.20 at 1:34 pm gets caught on the line:

#234 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.10.20 at 12:06 pm
#205 Gravy Train on 07.10.20 at 9:24 am snarks, again:

“#107 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.09.20 at 6:38 pm

No subsidy, no green energy

You are killing it Bytor! As always. (Secret admirer here).

Good thing for your consistency’s sake that the Canadian government and the Alberta government haven’t bought pipelines. Would hate to think the government is supporting a trillion dollar, well entrenched and creakingly archaic industry like the burning of a limited reserve of reduced algae. It would be really silly if they were at all forward looking to the day when coal is only used for smelting and oil only for advanced composites and polymers. And the days ahead when gas is only occasionally burned when the climate change induced heat waves require excess air conditioning or when the flood control pumps have to work extra hard because Richmond is flooding again.”
—————————
I knew some clown would come up with this one. Why did those govt’s buy the pipelines? Hint: Trudeau and his Green Energy Crusade.

#61 3s on 07.10.20 at 4:47 pm

Oh please, when deferrals become the new normal and everyone has done it and have reduced credit ratings as a herd it will just be a new baseline and the banks will just have to keep lending to anyone that breathes until the next crisis lowers the bar to lending again.

Next is retail products that will defer debt to the next generation via multi genrational loans. (just like the tax system currently does)

#62 OK, Doomer on 07.10.20 at 4:47 pm

I’m not sure how Trudeau can say that “Canada is borrowing money so you don’t have to” and not be sent to jail for lying.

If Canadians re-elect that creep we deserve the economic Depression that he’s teeing up for us.

#63 SeeB on 07.10.20 at 4:49 pm

#25 Attrition on 07.10.20 at 2:30 pm

Anyone want to take a guess at the sheer number of real estate investors–individuals and institutional–who are chomping at the bit, as they sit on piles of cash, just waiting to buy up every hard asset if and when they go on sale?

Oh, no, right, cause that never happens every single time. My bad.

Eyes open folks–minds too if you please.

————————————————————

Bingo! Only you forgot to mention the international rental corporations like Blackstone who are ALWAYS ready to swoop in and buy mildly distressed properties.

Modern concepts of who is entitled to “ownership” really don’t account for the well being of locals in the bottom 80% of incomes. Sure our current level of home ownership is about 66ish%? But that will shrink with every major shock while the price of housing will continue to rise for some “strange” reason (*cough* wealthgap *cough*)

#64 Trojan House on 07.10.20 at 4:54 pm

#9 Alex on 07.10.20 at 2:03 pm

Sorry, Alex, 100% of doctors are not onboard. I posted a link yesterday. I’ll post again today:

http://balancedresponse.ca/open-letter/

#65 Faron on 07.10.20 at 4:56 pm

#60 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.10.20 at 4:34 pm

#239 Faron on 07.10.20 at 1:34 pm

Oh, sorry. I forgot that the current Alberta gov’t is Green. What was it? $7.5 billion? During a massive economic crisis? Who buys votes again?

Then there’s this:

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/05/how-much-does-world-subsidize-oil-coal-and-gas/589000/

#66 Trojan House on 07.10.20 at 4:57 pm

#9 Alex on 07.10.20 at 2:03 pm

Here’s another doctor that doesn’t agree:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf6yBeXmzCo&t=6s

#67 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 4:58 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/rowdy-tellez-update-1.5643536

Good news story on a dead beat renter who paid his landlord! I guess he found the money to pay from his multi million dollar signing bonus the year prior.

#68 Leigh on 07.10.20 at 5:01 pm

The banks also use receiving CERB payments against you when you apply for a mortgage. The fact that there was a pent up demand with buyers who were already approved for mortgages prior to lockdown could explain the sudden increase in sales, but that could vanish quickly.

#69 Billy Buoy on 07.10.20 at 5:28 pm

DownToFinance on 07.10.20 at 3:43 pm

More deferrals? Wow, housing crash cancelled. House prices really do only go up.

_________________________________

In today’s world HOUSES, STOCKS, BONDS ONLY have one direction and that is UP. ONLY UP.

The 4 letter word starting with a D __ __ N has been removed from the language.

#70 Billy Buoy on 07.10.20 at 5:35 pm

Is it just me or has the world totally turned into an alternate reality?

TSLA at $1544

Trudeau thinking he is the Tooth Fairy, Santa, Easter Bunny combined.

Money created like it will never end with zero intention of ever being paid back.

Next will be the Leafs winning the Cup.

Someone please wake me when this is over. Please.

#71 Reximus on 07.10.20 at 5:40 pm

#58 Frank on 07.10.20 at 4:22 pm

Frank, seriously…why on earth would even contemplate this? If you bought your place in 2018, werent you planning on spending some time there?

You seem to be suggesting that you can ‘cash out’ for exactly what you put in, before some imaginary big crash. And then you want to buy another, only to endure the same ‘crash’?

Houses arent short-term trading pieces unless you are playing monopoly.

#72 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 5:41 pm

#59 MF on 07.10.20 at 4:32 pm
#28 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 2:34 pm

Yup. I am.

And by the way, it’s “one guy” with 2 million subscribers to his channel, which is all about him travelling.

It’s someone who has everything to lose by posting something like his story, and nothing to gain.

MF
———-
Sorry I still don’t get your point. Dude was “Corona…whatever!” But ever since getting it and being hospitalized, dude is now “Corona…beware because this is what happened to me”. That still doesn’t change that 99% of the people who get infected experience mild symptoms.

As to why someone with 2M subs post anything on YouTube? This is a hard one but I will take a shot in the dark and guess….ad revenue?

#73 Deplorable Dude on 07.10.20 at 5:45 pm

“ It’s not a holiday from debt, but a giant exercise in kicking the can down the road and hoping for an economic miracle, come 2021. What a gamble.”

————-

Scary thoughts….governments have no idea how to get us out of this. Witness the constant state of panic everytime we get a new C19 cluster somewhere. Instant lockdown.

We can’t hide forever and hope it just goes away.

I think we’re all inside a massive bubble…no one will be able to escape the blood and guts when it pops….

The market has no idea what to do. Valuations are completely fake…propped up by massive Fed manipulation.

Are we approaching the ‘insolvency’ phase…..the ‘end of hope’ for the markets as reality hits, bankruptcies start escalating, maybe the end of this month as US employment aid ends, Or Sept when US mortgage referrals end..unless they get kicked down the road as well.

Just for a laugh I watch some of the prepper/doom & gloom gold licker youtube channels…more for the comments than anything. Interesting to get anecdotal tales of what’s happening on the ground.

Tales of meat shortages still happening in the US, and now reports of stores not having canned goods, or if they do they are sneaky and stack shelves only one row deep to make it look like a shelf is full. I checked out our local grocery store today…and was surprised to see them doing the same thing with a few items. Our meat prices are all over the place, nearly a 40% difference in one week for mince.

A forewarning, or just a one off?

The next 2 months are gonna be interesting for sure….

#74 Barb on 07.10.20 at 5:47 pm

So who got to the stick first?
Come on, Mac!

#75 WE on 07.10.20 at 6:01 pm

Hello Mr. Turner,

Would you be interested in performing a series of speaking engagements about personal finances for our youth audiences across Canada?

We can provide you with $200,000 for 15 events.

This will cover your costs, and also allow you enough extra revenue to pay your debt to Stormy Daniels , buy some treats for Bandit and make a large donation to the Liberal party.

Please send your confirmation to Chateau Bill.

#76 MF on 07.10.20 at 6:10 pm

72 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 5:41 pm

That youtuber is the every man. He’s someone who didn’t take it seriously, flirted with danger, thought he didn’t have to worry because he was young, and also thought “99% of people survive”. But he got infected and was one of the unlikely ones who had a rough go of it. Now he understands why people are scared. It can happen to anyone.

Hidden among the 99% survival rate are stories of pain and suffering from the survivors. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to be in the ICU for weeks.

Also, his story directly flies in the face of all these idiots who are using this health issue as a cover to push their conspiracy trash on social media.

MF

#77 Howard on 07.10.20 at 6:15 pm

Garth, I see you read my link about the Australian deferral extension. I agree with you that the Liberals will probably follow that same blueprint. Four months extra deferrals, but restrictive this time, rather than a free-for-all for any who ask for it. I disagree with you that deadbeat borrowers will face any consequences to their ability to secure future credit, but I guess we’ll never know what conversations will be had between a bank rep and his manager when they see a big “D” in the applicant’s history.

#78 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 07.10.20 at 6:16 pm

Sorry to state the obvious Garth but some delusional people need to read this.

The banks have a duty to their shareholders to not lend money to people who cannot or will not pay it back.

#79 Faron on 07.10.20 at 6:17 pm

#70 Billy Buoy on 07.10.20 at 5:35 pm
Is it just me or has the world totally turned into an alternate reality?

TSLA at $1544

Notice all the wannabe electric car makers showing up in headlines with massive one day gains? Seems the 1500 TESLA tag is getting a little high so people are delusionalky looking for alternatives. Getting bubbly out there… Retail investors are about to transfer some wealth.

Also, check out the bubble in the Shanghai index.

Oh, and it looks like the deep state is fiddling with the COVID numbers. Seems cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all accelerating like an Echo RS. Beware the murder hornets.

#80 Howard on 07.10.20 at 6:22 pm

#58 Frank on 07.10.20 at 4:22 pm
Garth – what is your projection for housing in the GTA with the deferral cliff being extended? We bought in the GTA in 2018 and are thinking of cashing out as our house it up about $200k. Transaction costs/maintenance costs eat up most of the profit, but we will get a lot of equity out that be used on a cheaper house outside of the GTA. Should we move fast or do you think we have some more time?

———————————————————-

This comment is indicative of the mass mental illness that has befallen Canadians.

This man wants to swing-trade his home like a penny stock.

#81 1255 on 07.10.20 at 6:33 pm

Shouldn’t people take responsibility for gorging on debt to buy houses they can’t really afford?

How is that fair to those that hard working and responsible with their finances?

#82 TurnerNation on 07.10.20 at 6:34 pm

#5 MF exactly so the battle is for my mind.
You lost your freedoms over that.
And they ain’t going to be returned.

#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.10.20 at 6:37 pm

#64 Trojan House on 07.10.20 at 4:54 pm
#9 Alex on 07.10.20 at 2:03 pm

Sorry, Alex, 100% of doctors are not onboard. I posted a link yesterday. I’ll post again today:

http://balancedresponse.ca/open-letter/
——————-
Just a bunch of academics, sitting on their ivory towers.
I trust the Doctors and nurses fighting in the trenches.

#84 Nonplused on 07.10.20 at 6:38 pm

So if deferring your mortgage goes on the credit report, how come “keeping your rent” doesn’t? Is it just because ameture landlords don’t know how to post it? Or maybe they can’t?

#85 George S on 07.10.20 at 6:40 pm

nItro, you may be misinterpreting the statistics about C19 that you see on the Worldometer site. What the statistics are saying is that at the current point in time 1% of the people that test positive for C19 are experiencing mild symptoms. That is true. But by the time the cases are resolved, meaning that the disease has run its course and the person now tests negative or is dead, 7% of the people that initially tested positive are dead and 93% have recovered with no information on the severity of their symptoms.
So, what that means is that C19 starts out with mild symptoms that get worse over time.
You have to be very careful interpreting medical statistics. Most people rely on medical professionals to do this for them to prevent making a mistake.

#86 Nonplused on 07.10.20 at 6:49 pm

#38 NoName

Not sure but I think you are reading that chart upside down. Lumber is up hard for sure but you can still buy more lumber with an ounce of gold than you could say on the left side of the chart.

#87 Country People Stay Away! on 07.10.20 at 6:52 pm

#45 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!

Don’t you be coming down here to shop at our Costco either!

#88 John in Mtl on 07.10.20 at 7:01 pm

@ 1 TurnerNation

Mister, you are out of line, way out of live. Do you realize you are helping the enemy by divulging secret information about our plans? Do you know what punishment that entails? Under UCMJ you are hereby relieved of duty and you will be courtmartialled. Report to the brigg at once.

Dis….missed.

#89 Sydneysider on 07.10.20 at 7:03 pm

#1. TurnerNation’s posts suggest madness, yet there is a method to them.

#90 Looking up on 07.10.20 at 7:04 pm

A lot of talk on this board about people not saving for retirement. A think a lot of people don’t because they feel they don’t have to. Mom and Dad or spouses parents have a million dollar house that they’re going to leave to them one day when they pass so why bother saving.

We’ve become a nation totally dependant on real estate for wealth and retirement. This would explain why I had so many financial planners banging on my door (pre Covid)bugging me to use their services.

Not as many people interested in non real estate investments any more.

#91 ain't life rand on 07.10.20 at 7:12 pm

@#73 Deplorable Dude on 07.10.20 at 5:45 pm
“ It’s not a holiday from debt, but a giant exercise in kicking the can down the road and hoping for an economic miracle, come 2021. What a gamble.”

————-

Scary thoughts….governments have no idea how to get us out of this. Witness the constant state of panic everytime we get a new C19 cluster somewhere. Instant lockdown.

We can’t hide forever and hope it just goes away.

I think we’re all inside a massive bubble…no one will be able to escape the blood and guts when it pops….

The market has no idea what to do. Valuations are completely fake…propped up by massive Fed manipulation.

Are we approaching the ‘insolvency’ phase…..the ‘end of hope’ for the markets as reality hits, bankruptcies start escalating, maybe the end of this month as US employment aid ends, Or Sept when US mortgage referrals end..unless they get kicked down the road as well.

Just for a laugh I watch some of the prepper/doom & gloom gold licker youtube channels…more for the comments than anything. Interesting to get anecdotal tales of what’s happening on the ground.

Tales of meat shortages still happening in the US, and now reports of stores not having canned goods, or if they do they are sneaky and stack shelves only one row deep to make it look like a shelf is full. I checked out our local grocery store today…and was surprised to see them doing the same thing with a few items. Our meat prices are all over the place, nearly a 40% difference in one week for mince.

A forewarning, or just a one off?

The next 2 months are gonna be interesting for sure….

meh, costco in etobicoke was fully stocked with everything as usual. even had ample toilet paper.
preppers gonna prep lol.

#92 NoName on 07.10.20 at 7:13 pm

It took a while but some one figured it out.

https://twitter.com/ShitFund/status/1281573888871153665?s=19

#93 kingston boy on 07.10.20 at 7:15 pm

@#70 Billy Buoy on 07.10.20 at 5:35 pm
Is it just me or has the world totally turned into an alternate reality?

TSLA at $1544

Trudeau thinking he is the Tooth Fairy, Santa, Easter Bunny combined.

Money created like it will never end with zero intention of ever being paid back.

Next will be the Leafs winning the Cup.

Someone please wake me when this is over. Please.
//////////////////////////////////////////////

the leafs winning the cup would be the cherry on top of a simply amazing year for me and my fam.

go leafs.

#94 Shirl Clarts on 07.10.20 at 7:18 pm

#58 Frank on 07.10.20 at 4:22 pm
Garth – what is your projection for housing in the GTA with the deferral cliff being extended? We bought in the GTA in 2018 and are thinking of cashing out as our house it up about $200k. Transaction costs/maintenance costs eat up most of the profit, but we will get a lot of equity out that be used on a cheaper house outside of the GTA. Should we move fast or do you think we have some more time?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Projections.. umm NOW?? Don’t wait for the pile of listings, and definitely don’t wait until Christmas.

Actually, do yourself a favour and write down all the transaction costs of selling then rebuying and ask yourself if it’s worth it.

#95 Sail Away on 07.10.20 at 7:23 pm

#79 Faron on 07.10.20 at 6:17 pm

TSLA at $1544

Notice all the wannabe electric car makers showing up in headlines with massive one day gains? Seems the 1500 TESLA tag is getting a little high so people are delusionalky looking for alternatives. Getting bubbly out there… Retail investors are about to transfer some wealth.

——————

All I’ll say is: 18-bagger baby!

#96 Sharon in Salmon Arm on 07.10.20 at 7:27 pm

No Name # 38…Where are you planning on keeping this lumber? Garth’s back yard? Try finding a bank where you can safely store 50 car loads of spruce in one of their safe deposit boxes.. If you’re not talking about the real thing, perhaps it’s futures you have in mind .As you may know, futures are paper contracts (possibly in part made of spruce) whether they be gold, lumber or any other commodity and in the event of force majeure, you’re going to be paid in paper dollars ( also possibly in part made of spruce), not the commodity. There goes your lumber..Maybe better to stick to a commodity which will be there when you need it…

#97 TurnerNation on 07.10.20 at 7:28 pm

#167 Millennial905er cool ,good stuff pleased to meet you.
Now more than ever this weblog is the top place in which to Share Sanity.
Very few will get through this reset in one piece.

#98 Ace Goodheart on 07.10.20 at 7:34 pm

Re: #45 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 07.10.20 at 3:30 pm

Stay in the GTA you southern hillbillies!

Don’t come up here. Got it? Good!

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/toronto-area-drivers-americans-being-threatened-in-ontario-s-cottage-country-1.4986572

(I hear that if you do come up, better invest in some scratch remover and a tire pump. Not my doing or endorsement, just a reality. Watch out for broken windows and microchip geotags being put on cars as well. People here are fed up with you.)

/////////////////////////////////

This is actually really funny.

The guy who owns the local craft brewery up where we are, had his car keyed last weekend. Brand new BMW. He was very pissed off about it.

He bought it in Brampton (he has a cousin down there who works at a dealership) so it has the Brampton dealer logo around the license plate.

They know who did it (the brewery has cameras) and they know where the person lives. They are just in the process of getting the police to view the videos, and then they are all going to go and pay him a visit.

Why would you put a micro chip on someone’s car? It is not illegal to travel from Toronto to Muskoka.

I was talking with a bunch of the local cottagers over the weekend. They were like “if someone tries to key any of the cars around here, they better be able to run fast, cause we are coming after them”.

Hope your northern rusted out hill billy pick up truck can go faster than the Porsche’s and Beamers that the cottagers drive………

#99 akashic record on 07.10.20 at 7:41 pm

The broker explains that a customer showed them the most recent credit report he had received from his Big Six lender. Prominently featured multiple times was the phrase “Mortgage Deferred Payment Plan”.

Big mistake. They will be sued for discrimination, human rights violation and as a state protected cartel they will bend their knees and pay, pay, pay.

#100 Franco Santos on 07.10.20 at 7:44 pm

1255, they did all this on purpose. They are encouraging financial irresponsibility and other types of irresponsibility. They want crisis, problems. Look what they did to interest rates. They were 5 year 7% to 8% mortgage rates just the beginning of 2000 now 2% to 2.20% 5 year mortgage rates in 2020, just 20 years later.

This is a 70% to 75% crash in interest rates. If this is not the biggest bailout for irresponsible real estate, debt junkies of all types then I don’t know what is. Now you got the freeloaders trying to get everything free because they are told they deserve it. You are not entitled and you don’t deserve anything except an equal opportunity to earn something and be responsible but not equal to the outcome.

#101 Steven Nicolle on 07.10.20 at 7:50 pm

I hope Trudeau does not extend this deferral because then he just went overboard. No one will do anything. He bought pipelines that cannot get finished. Has no real plan for restarting our economy. Scared of reopening. I don’t know what Ford is thinking. Open for business? Not really as more and more close everyday. We have no leadership nothing going on. Yes we have flattened the curve now what are you waiting for? 0 Cases. Impossible! Green economy, renewal? A plan for the 21st century or the early 1900’s? Now he has the WE charity scandal on top of it. It is a joke in the middle of a pandemic. I bet Trudeau will succumb to Trump and reopen the border before the end of August so by the time we get to phase 3 our second wave will hit. The worst is yet to come people. We are a bunch of scared cats. You know the CERB will last forever too and so I blogged about why this will be the case being in a low paying waiter job until I got cancer.
https://afterwaiterextraordinaire.blogspot.com/2020/07/go-back-to-work-or-collect-cerb.html

#102 Keen Reader on 07.10.20 at 7:51 pm

@24 ICHTD9

My pay and pension both came from the federal government. One was lower than equivalent private sector counterparts, the other is now higher. Same source, proprtions could have been different for similar outcome; why does the difference upset you so much? Also, the Feds swallowed pensions when convenient at the time, so let’s keep the big picture in mind, shall we?

Entitlement – I chose my path and enjoyed it thoroughly, between testing cutting-edge aerospace technology and saving lives in the SAR world. My choices (helped by the invaluable info from Garth’s books and blogs) allowed me to fully retire at 48. And yeah, I do think this was a fair deal and hope to enjoy my inflation-adjusted pension for a long time!!

#103 Looking up on 07.10.20 at 7:53 pm

#25 Attrition on 07.10.20 at 2:30 pm
It is a nothingburger Garth, and you know it.

Mortgage deferrals were for six months only, and that ends in September. CMHC’s point is simple: thousands – maybe tens of thousands – of people with houses won’t be abe to resume making payments because they lack employment. That would trigger a wave of defaults, foreclosures, powers of sale and oodles of new listings…

So all those little beavers who deferred payments for 6 or so months, come Sept, won’t even be able to scratch together a single payment? So that’s it – straight to housing Armageddon?

It’s not like all the deferred payments are due come Sept. It’s one bleeding mortgage payment man, come on. I know you’re generally down on RE Garth, but you’re also better than this.

And this tells me you may hold average non-elite Canadians in rather low esteem. Plenty of people deferred payments because they could, not because they had to. Smart move when things are volatile.

Yet some unelected snivel servants or arms-length crown corp bureaucrats can make dire predictions easily enough and possibly even for nefarious reasons–but isn’t it sort of your role to temper the noise for your flock?

Nothingburger folks.

Anyone want to take a guess at the sheer number of real estate investors–individuals and institutional–who are chomping at the bit, as they sit on piles of cash, just waiting to buy up every hard asset if and when they go on sale?

Oh, no, right, cause that never happens every single time. My bad.

Eyes open folks–minds too if you please.

———————

Gotta agree for the most part. But I think the condo market will see a correction. Not enough big money to keep the condo prices up and too many coming on the market too fast me thinks.

#104 Flop... on 07.10.20 at 7:54 pm

The Federal government here uses ” best international practices” , which I equated the other week to, waiting for a foreign government to stuff it, and try something different.

Australia is doing a lot of the same things as here, with similar results.

Can’t get people back to work because they are getting 500 bucks a week here, could of swore I saw they were getting 750 a week there.

JobSeeker, or something like that, for people seeking not to work.

You don’t have to be the fastest horse, just don’t finish last, so everyone laughs at you.

These governments haven’t had an original thought since they decided to stick animals on their coins.

Stuffed if I return to Australia.

Stuffed if I stay here.

I always tell my wife, if I’m going to suffer, I might as well be warm while doing it.

How much does a house in Mogadishu cost…

M46BC

#105 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 8:08 pm

#76 MF on 07.10.20 at 6:10 pm
72 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 5:41 pm

Hidden among the 99% survival rate are stories of pain and suffering from the survivors. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to be in the ICU for weeks.

Also, his story directly flies in the face of all these idiots who are using this health issue as a cover to push their conspiracy trash on social media.
———
I think you mean the survival rate which is currently 92%. The 99% and 1% we are talking about is the people who experience mild vs serious symptoms. I’m not discounting the effects of covid-19 on the 1% with severe symptoms. The YouTube dude who disregarded common sense protocols like staying away from others is an idiot but don’t discount that if he was one of the 99% that had mild symptoms, he wouldn’t be on his channel saying “Corona…I had it, no biggie”.

As it relates to mandated mask wearing hysteria, I’m arguing that it is almost as bad as thinking that covid is not a big deal since proper use of masks are no where to be found. Here’s the point which people seem to miss…

Everyone is mandated to wear a mask indoors. Ok fine. But unless you put on that mask the moment you leave your house and keep it on until you get back home, you are not helping stop the spread. Here’s why…

Touching your mask, taking it off to hang it in the car rearview, removing it to talk on the phone, having it just cover your mouth while you nostrils are exposed, using loose fitting ones, not taking off the mask and treating it like it is Corona ridden and washing or throwing it away the moment you get home, etc….ALL keep the spread of the virus going.

Add in that the virus may now be airborne while indoors, I hope people can see that mandatory masks are wearing is effectively useless. Honestly ask yourself how many people doing the points I listed have you seen when outside??

There is no conspiracy. Just a bunch of people in government who aren’t any smarter than the average person, misinterpreting what the experts are saying and applying draconian measures in the hope it helps because “it’s better than doing nothing”.

A good example of this is the misinterpretation of the virus is the reaction of the virus being active on surfaces for a long time. We now got retailers like Costco spraying god knows what on their shopping carts before handing it to members while other retailers stop taking cash for fear of the virus being transmitted.

It is true the virus can survive an extended period of time on surfaces but what people missed from these studies is that the experiments were using virus quantities in magnitudes of order than is not found in real life. Media and idiots ran with this and we get useless measures to “save lives”.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-we-did-not-say-that-cash-was-transmitting-coronavirus-2020-03-06

#106 NoName on 07.10.20 at 8:14 pm

@ Sharon

Do you know anyone that used gold in time of distress recently or ever? And how you gonna get change for coin or bar, and what you gonna exchange it for?

I lived thru dicktatorship, oppressive govnoverment, civil unrest, occupation and civil war, so pay attention here, you just might learn something.

When I was experiencing g $#! 7 preferd middium of exchange was gasoline and Deutsche mark paper notes only, not Austrian shilling.

I honestly would have courage to walk in pawn shop or some sketchy people and try to sell my bullion, because farce measure.

Here won’t be any different gasoline will get you out of dodge and “some money” will buy you food. It’s only 3 currency here and I wouldn’t have any pesos, but that’s just me you can diversify…

As for lumber I recommend etfs cut and wood, hard or soft doest matter.

#107 NoName on 07.10.20 at 8:16 pm

Small correction for previous post.

I honestly would have courage to

Should

read would NOT

#108 Rocky Mountain on 07.10.20 at 8:38 pm

Not new news sadly. I posted few months ago that the deferrals will be extended. Canada can’t afford to harm real estate.
Never ever again will you be able to buy a livable house in Van or Northshore for under a million. That is so 2014. We missed the bus. But still I would rather rent here for life than buy in Alberta (lived there for several years and its not fun to work 60hrs a week just to keep the job, forget about getting a raise)

#109 Wicked as it seems on 07.10.20 at 8:42 pm

Got back from Vietnam after living there for 1.5 years, took 5 tries , now back on Van isle where the infection rate is same as Vietnam, we were the toast of Asia with 350 infections.
Lets get back to the post, renters paradise here now! All I have is cash and liquidity and look at friends owning and shudder, I stay in parks and trails with friends dog to keep away from whining people.

#110 Ballingsford on 07.10.20 at 9:02 pm

Mortgage deferrals aren’t good, the day of reckoning is coming. Either you can pay or you can’t.

Masks! There is so much debate on whether to wear them or not. In the old days, only bad guys wore masks. Went into a store today and got into the car by myself, drove off, and realized I still had my mask on.

How stupid was that of me?!?!

Felt like a bank robber.

#111 Mike in Airdrie on 07.10.20 at 9:05 pm

Mortgage deferral extension…how predictable. So where’s the cliff? If massive unemployment doesn’t correct the RE market nothing will.

#112 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.10.20 at 9:14 pm

Mr. Garth, you know the inner workings of federal government.
If you would share your opinion; how much trouble are Trudeau and Morneau in with the WE scandal? Is this much ado about nothing or will this sink him?

What do you think of Trudeau skipping the USMCA/CUSMA/MUSCA invite?

It seems like this one could be bad, but I thought that LAVScam was going to have Trudeau tossed and it didn’t even scuff his armour…

#113 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 9:22 pm

#85 George S on 07.10.20 at 6:40 pm
nItro, you may be misinterpreting the statistics about C19 that you see on the Worldometer site.
————
I don’t think I’m misinterpreting the numbers since we are both correct, we are just talking 2 different things. Current people that have it, the numbers have been consistently trending to most having mild symptom while the death rate has also dropped. I remember checking worldometer near the start and death rate was 20%. It is now around 7-8%. Still not good but it’s going down as the weak (unfortunately) are usually first to go.

As for interpreting the numbers, I trust statisticians over doctors any day. For the life of me, I haven’t found the numbers around how effective wearing a fabric mask is over nothing. I suspect the benefit is quite low or the WHO and media would be chirping about it 24/7. If anyone can provide a link to a study that has legit controls and is peered reviewed, it would be greatly appreciated.

#114 Future Expatriate on 07.10.20 at 9:43 pm

HAHAHAH!!!

The only germy “Arizonians” who will be crossing the border and wiping out White Rock are the returning Canadians who fled Canada for sunnier climes and cheap foreclosures during the crash and are now escaping the Trümplague.

#115 jal on 07.10.20 at 10:03 pm

Accountants will be involved in making sure that the landlords will be able to write missed rent as a deductible expense.

Income not received is not an expense. – Garth

#116 Faron on 07.10.20 at 10:03 pm

#95 Sail Away on 07.10.20 at 7:23 pm
#79 Faron on 07.10.20 at 6:17 pm

All I’ll say is: 18-bagger baby!

Sell you greedy idiot. Or, more aptly, the market is full of Tesla loving greater fools right now all hungry to give you $$$. Give them that pleasure.

Also, if you make any more money, that ego of yours is going to block out the sun here on VI. At least sell 7 shares and send me the $10k owing for your US COVID death rate acceleration gaff.

#117 CL on 07.10.20 at 10:23 pm

Sorry Garth. The gov’t will ALWAYS save people. That should be apparent by now. Borrow, get low interest rates at the expense of savers, spend spend spend and that’s it.

I am in Cowtown. I have been watching activity on the streets a well as residential rental markets for example and it just ain’t happening. I was just at a nearby retail development. I couldn’t find parking and nearby restaurants were packed!! Expensive restaurants. Traffic is heavy….maybe heavier than before the virus.

Layoffs almost every week by the thousands, oil in the toilet, the province with ~20B deficit, and I rent in a complex and while it sort of cleared out at the beginning they now have waiting lists for rentals and rents have not dropped at all.

Why save? why be responsible? why do anything that makes sense when it is clear the government will cover it all. There is zero responsibility or accountability so, why not?

It’s the weirdest thing and somewhat frustrating for some reason. Frustrating because there are some of us that save and pay bills and hunker down to survive yet the irresponsible are rewarded. More and more I talk to friends and they are looking to leave to a more sane country. Yes, all are in the same boat but, there are countries that will not reward bad behavior such as this.

It really is disgusting and infuriating. The cockiness is still front and center. Arrogance. Complacency. Bad service everywhere. And again, it is rewarded. Nobody learns nor will they.

WTF are banks thinking by allowing deferrals??. Credit ratings won’t be affected. Lending will still occur because that’s what banks do. And with the feds backstopping…for now….until we hit a wall, it won’t change. The wall is likely years and years away if at all. So, on and on it goes.

While what you say makes sense and what should be happening certainly is not…not here anyway in the land of oil and gas which is worth almost nothing right now and layoffs abound but full restaurants, streets and pot shops.

#118 Trojan House on 07.10.20 at 10:29 pm

#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.10.20 at 6:37 pm

“Just a bunch of academics, sitting on their ivory towers. I trust the Doctors and nurses fighting in the trenches.”

Are you serious??? Did you see the amount of letters beside their names? I’m sure at one point a lot of those people were in the trenches. It is for people like you that this thing will never end. You’re incredible.

#119 CL on 07.10.20 at 10:31 pm

Interesting. I made a post before reading any of the comments. After making the post I started to read comments and wow!! We are almost all thinking the same thing. why be responsible. And the frustration is very apparent.

I’ve never seen the comment section in such alignment and all at once. The frustration from being responsible and being punished for it is palpable.

#120 binky barnes on 07.10.20 at 10:34 pm

Mr. Garth, you know the inner workings of federal government.
If you would share your opinion; how much trouble are Trudeau and Morneau in with the WE scandal? Is this much ado about nothing or will this sink him?

———————————————————

Nothing can harm King Justin, the teflon man. Nothing!

BB

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.10.20 at 10:44 pm

#113 nitro
As for interpreting the numbers, I trust statisticians over doctors any day. For the life of me, I haven’t found the numbers around how effective wearing a fabric mask is over nothing. I suspect the benefit is quite low or the WHO and media would be chirping about it 24/7. If anyone can provide a link to a study that has legit controls and is peered reviewed, it would be greatly appreciated.
————–
Where do the statisticians get the data?
If you need medical advise, do you go for a statistician ?
As for the effectiveness of masks, it’s not even a discussion anymore.
Why do you think Doctors and nurses are wearing them?
In Asia pretty much everyone wears masks in public, and hence the low numbers of infections and deaths.
And, btw, social distancing is also very effective.
So is washing your hands.
This post is not peer reviewed.
So you just have take my word for it.

#122 SoggyShorts on 07.10.20 at 10:50 pm

#113 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 9:22 pm
#85 George S on 07.10.20 at 6:40 pm
For the life of me, I haven’t found the numbers around how effective wearing a fabric mask is over nothing. I suspect the benefit is quite low or the WHO and media would be chirping about it 24/7. If anyone can provide a link to a study that has legit controls and is peered reviewed, it would be greatly appreciated.
****************************
But…how?
I mean how would this study be conducted?

We have a somewhat decent data set looking at how Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea have done vs other countries but I’m sure that wasn’t controlled enough, right?

So what would satisfy you?

Take 10,000 people with a random 200 infected and have them use just social distancing and then repeat with another set with social distancingand cloth masks? Conducting such a study doesn’t seem realistic, but I really doubt anything less would be acceptable to the anti-mask crowd.

Here’s a study you can do yourself: hold your hand in front of your face and spit on it. Now pull your shirt up over your nose and try again.
Now if you can honestly say that you have never ever in your life had a surprise cough or sneeze or spittle exit your mouth with anything less than 100% control, sure your mask isn’t needed. Except it’s a pretty awesome reminder to everyone who sees it that they should keep 6′ away, isn’t it?
Even if the ONLY thing that masks did was remind everyone to keep 6′ away that’d be something.

This debate is just so bizarre to me. I was in Vietnam when the virus broke out and when they made it a law that everyone must wear a mask no one even flinched, and it hit 40 degrees most days. It’s really not a big deal, and even if it helps just a little bit, the arguments against wearing one are pretty weak.

It’s crazy that a country as poor as Vietnam which shares a border with China completely beat the virus and yet doing so in Canada wasn’t even an option.

#123 whiplash on 07.10.20 at 11:04 pm

What else is happening this year? Oil & gas firms have $5 B in debt that has to be repaid. “Houston, we have a problem”?

#124 JPN on 07.10.20 at 11:21 pm

Soooo T is / was Tater then … ?

#125 Old Ron the Realtor on 07.10.20 at 11:30 pm

I don’t see housing Armageddon in the big Smoke. Too little housing for a population growing at 125,000 a year.

#126 Ebb Tide on 07.10.20 at 11:33 pm

Seriously people. What’s more important to the economy, paying a greedy bank or having summer fun with the two new dirt bikes I bought the kids? Hubbies paid off and brews his own. I won’t shave “down there” ever again. It’s a brave new world. Trudeau knows the economy will balance itself. We’ll just MMT the cash from our magic printing machine.

The whole idea of paying debt is nonsense. When Mr Trudeau took to photo ops cutting broccoli instead of attending USMCA with our largest trading partners he’s signaling the direction Canadians can expect to see our economy going. Follow him. He’s channeling our inner Castro. Let’s take to the fields.

I smell Banana bread! Yummy. And remember “ WE CAN DO IT”. Now please send your children to camp for indoctrination.

#127 Millennial 1%er on 07.10.20 at 11:39 pm

More deferrals? Future us will make good for it I guess. Looks like grabbing the deferral and renovating the bathroom was the winning move.

#128 Idiocy on 07.10.20 at 11:54 pm

a few predictions;

Until the next federal election is completed;

1) CERB (or equivalents) will be extended
2) mortgage deferrals will be extended
3) a CERB – like subsidy program will be introduced for ‘needs proven’ distressed mortgaged persons
4) UBI will be discussed / promised
5) moratorium on residential evictions will be extended
6) Bank of Canada will “buy” $ 250 – 400 Billion of bonds to monetize the debts thereby incurred.

Post election, taxpayers get to foot the bill and the currency may be significantly weakened should the WTI oil price not go above US $ 60.

#129 DON on 07.11.20 at 12:20 am

#78 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 07.10.20 at 6:16 pm

Sorry to state the obvious Garth but some delusional people need to read this.

The banks have a duty to their shareholders to not lend money to people who cannot or will not pay it back.
************

Posting it again…in the spirit of saying it a second time on one blog. If the delusional read it three times it may just sink in.

The richest country in the World did not save all American mortgage holders – indebted masses…and they have a printing press with a large military to back them up.

Anxiety is abound and delusion becomes hope. Who will be able to afford any condo or house if prices continue to rise. Our politicians have been kicking the can down the road for quite a while now, maybe we are running out of road. Back in 2007 there was talk of a retirement crisis, then came the housing bubble and people with no savings and no pensions (worst case scenario) sold their old houses to first time home buyers at inflated prices. Problem solved pension crisis averted and debt transferred to another generation.

Peak Debt, Peak Leverage, Peak Delusion.

The but but buts do not work anymore, the media no longer provides the facts and enables viewers to come to their own conclusions, they simply enable the sensationalism angle (DRAMA).

Did you hear today that Canada created the most jobs ever, it was a record. Of course it was a record, given all the job losses. All good new right!

All answers can be found in our history. Human nature has not evolved. The it is different this time crowd operates on a small time frame most have not even experienced a significant downturn. Canada went through the Great financial crisis unscathed for the most part. The World was using stimulus money to buy up commodities that they were stocking piling, hence why both the Aussie and Canuck economies continued to perform. But this time the World is in a funk and all central banks are spending. How and when do they turn off the taps.

Read a bloomberg article about building anxiety and a record amount of cash still sitting on the sidelines as amateur investors pile in to reap the liquidity the central bank is pumping in. Volatility is still a concern.

The really sad part…logic and reasoning has been replaced by herd mentality and the herd is easily spooked as knowledge is lacking.

#130 AB on 07.11.20 at 12:26 am

Garth,
A sincere thank you for all you do. Really good of you to help educate the masses on financial matters. It boggles the mind why folks gravitate to particular trendy overvalued real estate locations when we truly have a huge beautiful country from coast to coast with exceptional bargains to be had. Best to not be a sheeple.
Thanks again Garth.

#131 Al on 07.11.20 at 1:27 am

“Tesla needs to have a good look at this unit, and then quietly get rid of that ice scraper thingie they’re calling a truck :).”

Inferior specs for more money? Where do I sign? Lol
Cant say I’m surprised by another potentially poor showings by the incumbents. Sigh.

#132 BCWally on 07.11.20 at 1:37 am

I’m wondering why we aren’t discussing the effects of all this spending is having on the country itself. Ultimately the federal government can only do what the world investment community will allow. Credit will ultimately become much more expensive or unavailable as risk rises. Note how this is directly related to the Canadian banks responding to the mortgage deferrals, so too will foreign lenders to the country.
So here’s a question to everybody on the blog: At what interest rate would you buy a federal Canadian bond considering the risk of non-payment rising with each day of excessive spending? If you thought at least 5% this is where the housing market will truly collapse.

#133 NSNG on 07.11.20 at 3:00 am

It looks like we have a giant game of economic musical chairs forming. It will involve reckless borrowers, the banks, and the government.

I think savers will be shown to be very prudent to sit this one out as these clowns go to war for that last dollar. Then things go backward

The wheels of justice grind slowly but very, very fine!

#134 Wrk.dover on 07.11.20 at 5:59 am

3M N-95 has a convenient handle right in the middle.

It is the housing for the air release flap/valve.

Safe to touch and hold with dirty hand while re-installing mask on face and placing elastic behind head with the other dirty hand.

Yup! Hard truth. Accept it. (good morning moderator)

#135 willworkforpickles on 07.11.20 at 6:03 am

I guess I’ll come out of posting retirement for this one.
….regarding post #37 …”A deferral of payment on a credit report won’t stop the bank from offering them a renewal. They would rather have a client on shaky footing than no client at all.”
Dead Wrong.
The banks are going to make an example early of deferral cases needing renewal upping the ante as a deterrent and warning to mortgage holders everywhere and to those thinking they can default later and somehow get away with it indefinitely. They have no choice but to or face an avalanche of mortgage holders just doing whatever they please in numbers far greater than those who would default anyway regardless of threat of a life altering deterrent. The banks will take action contrary to your opinion or face going down hard.
The borrower always goes down first.

#136 willworkforpickles on 07.11.20 at 6:22 am

The banks aren’t going to be pushed around and dictated to by the borrowing masses. They set the bar as always.
Always have and always will.

#137 BillyBob on 07.11.20 at 7:37 am

#36 Sail Away on 07.10.20 at 2:57 pm
I always feel so left out when the topics are mortgages, renters and debt. Sigh…

=====================================================

I hear ya man. I’m currently paying the second item for my pied-à-terre I’ve maintained in London but even that expense will be gone in a few months.

Partner and I crunched some numbers. We calculated that based on monthly living costs in Prague we can only survive living there on our liquid savings for roughly the next 108 years. (Yes, years.) I mean, y’know, give or take depending on if we splash out on a few niceties along the way.

After that though I’d have to start selling some of the portfolio. Or *gasp* get a job. lol

If you save and invest hard with a mindset that life may not always be rainbows and unicorns it really is possible to survive a lot of rainy days.

Or a super typhoon in this case.

#138 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.11.20 at 8:18 am

#65 Faron on 07.10.20 at 4:56 pm blurts:
“#60 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.10.20 at 4:34 pm

#239 Faron on 07.10.20 at 1:34 pm

Oh, sorry. I forgot that the current Alberta gov’t is Green. What was it? $7.5 billion? During a massive economic crisis? Who buys votes again?

Then there’s this:

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/05/how-much-does-world-subsidize-oil-coal-and-gas/589000/
——————————————————————-
Again, typical argument tactic of the left: “Look over there, a squirrel” aka whataboutism aka deflection.

We were talking about “green” power not Alberta Oil, that Trudeau and the Greenie Movement essentially drive out of business with their policies and regulations.

#139 Dharma Bum on 07.11.20 at 9:15 am

Deferrals simply prolong the agony. The financial pain will simply continue for longer. Undisciplined people tend to defer everything.
I’ll start exercising next month.
I’ll lose weight starting Monday.
I’ll start saving money next year.
I’ll get a medical check up later.
I’ll start studying tomorrow.
I’ll do those chores another time.

In the meantime, they get further and further behind.

Procrastination and deferrals are indicative of a character flaw. These traits will come back and bite you in the keester.

On another note, I was originally against mandatory masks, but now I kind of like it. I realize that I am much better looking with a mask on! I notice that hot chicks now stop to take a second look at me. I’m much more attractive when my face is covered up. I shoulda though of doing this decades ago.

Also, have you noticed that all the zombies walking around with facemasks are a bunch of frightened looking shifty-eyed creeps?

We’re living in a horror movie.

#140 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 9:20 am

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.10.20 at 10:44 pm
#113 nitro
Where do the statisticians get the data?
———
The question is not if the methods are effective. It is a matter of how effective. If doctors/scientists are conducting studies properly, the stats will let you decide if it’s worth the effort.

A ridiculous example is this….

If we wrap our kids in bubblepack, this will reduce the injuries when they eventually fall. There is no question that a layer of protection will provide this. So now do we all go and stock up on bubblewrap or would you first like to see the effectiveness of bubblewrap on the severity of injuries sustained in a fall vs group without the bubblewrap?

#141 Last of the Boomers on 07.11.20 at 9:37 am

I bet Mothers Day is a hoot at Garth’s house.

#142 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 9:43 am

#122 SoggyShorts on 07.10.20 at 10:50 pm
#113 n1tro on 07.10.20 at 9:22 pm
#85 George S on 07.10.20 at 6:40 pm
****************************
But…how?
I mean how would this study be conducted?
———
Leave covid-19 out of the picture for a moment. You are telling me there can’t be basic studies of two groups (mask vs. no mask) with a sneeze machine to simulate transmission? Scientific study is not to explain the entire event of variables but break the event to it’s components and measure.

As for Asian countries, I can only speak as it relates to Vietnam as I’m not familiar for the other countries. Take Vietnam’s numbers with a huge helping of salt. Why?

There’s a reason Vietnam doesn’t have shows like “CSI Saigon” on their local channels. It’s because that level of technology and rigor does not exist in the country. So ask yourself how a country with 90M in one of the mostly dense parts of the world only got 300 or so cases and zero deaths when countries like Canada were struggling to get test results back within a week after sending it to the 1 lab in Winnipeg at the same time?

Taiwan is a success story because they made it mandatory for masks everywhere while providing hand sanitizer in public spaces and locking down flights coming in at the start of the wuhan outbreak.

Vietnam on the other hand did no such thing. No govt issued masks, let alone hand sanitizers. There are pictures of crowds of thousands lined up at pharmacies in Vietnam waiting to be gouged for the few hundred available China made medical masks. Then you read stories of scammers selling reused medical masks to cash in on people’s fears. I know there was a CNN stories exclaiming Vietnam’s while bashing Trump’s response to the outbreak but it lacked a lot of investigation but rather just printed what the government said was done.

#143 NoName on 07.11.20 at 10:00 am

#86 Nonplused on 07.10.20 at 6:49 pm
#38 NoName

Not sure but I think you are reading that chart upside down. Lumber is up hard for sure but you can still buy more lumber with an ounce of gold than you could say on the left side of the chart.

How am i reading it wrong, you get less wood for same amount of gold comparing it to march or april this year, or multiple less compering it to 10 yrs ago, dont be picky. We all know march or apr was perfect time to enter anything.

#144 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.11.20 at 10:06 am

@#90 Looking up
“Not as many people interested in non real estate investments any more.”

++++

And you come to a financial blog why?

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.11.20 at 10:12 am

@#109 Wicked
“Got back from Vietnam after living there for 1.5 years”
++++

I read somewhere you can shoot a cow with an RPG for $500 in Vietnam…… True or false.

#146 jal on 07.11.20 at 10:19 am

Income not received is not an expense. – Garth
—–
Wait for the changes that the lawyers will make to save themselves and their landlord bosses.

You need help. – Garth

#147 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.11.20 at 10:20 am

#118 Trojan House on 07.10.20 at 10:29 pm
#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.10.20 at 6:37 pm

“Just a bunch of academics, sitting on their ivory towers. I trust the Doctors and nurses fighting in the trenches.”

Are you serious??? Did you see the amount of letters beside their names? I’m sure at one point a lot of those people were in the trenches. It is for people like you that this thing will never end. You’re incredible.
————–
I’ll see all your experts and raise you Fauci.

#148 Sail Away on 07.11.20 at 10:51 am

#116 Faron on 07.10.20 at 10:03 pm
#95 Sail Away on 07.10.20 at 7:23 pm

Re: TSLA

All I’ll say is: 18-bagger baby!

————–

Sell you greedy idiot.

————–

You know how it is when an acquaintance says something so monumentally ignorant that you just can’t believe it? Yep.

#149 jal on 07.11.20 at 11:12 am

You need help. – Garth
——–
Thanks to your blog, I got help.
I wanted to learn who would be the winner, renter, landlord, or lender.
The bank lenders will win.

#150 BillyBob on 07.11.20 at 11:33 am

#80 Howard on 07.10.20 at 6:22 pm
#58 Frank on 07.10.20 at 4:22 pm
Garth – what is your projection for housing in the GTA with the deferral cliff being extended? We bought in the GTA in 2018 and are thinking of cashing out as our house it up about $200k. Transaction costs/maintenance costs eat up most of the profit, but we will get a lot of equity out that be used on a cheaper house outside of the GTA. Should we move fast or do you think we have some more time?

———————————————————-

This comment is indicative of the mass mental illness that has befallen Canadians.

This man wants to swing-trade his home like a penny stock.

==================================================

Or maybe it has to do with the fact that the world’s economic situation has changed slightly since 2018, particularly in oh…the last six months?

Nah, couldn’t have anything to do with anything.

#151 BillyBob on 07.11.20 at 11:39 am

#142 n1tro on 07.11.20 at 9:43 am

———
Leave covid-19 out of the picture for a moment. You are telling me there can’t be basic studies of two groups (mask vs. no mask) with a sneeze machine to simulate transmission? Scientific study is not to explain the entire event of variables but break the event to it’s components and measure.

As for Asian countries, I can only speak as it relates to Vietnam as I’m not familiar for the other countries. Take Vietnam’s numbers with a huge helping of salt. Why?

There’s a reason Vietnam doesn’t have shows like “CSI Saigon” on their local channels. It’s because that level of technology and rigor does not exist in the country. So ask yourself how a country with 90M in one of the mostly dense parts of the world only got 300 or so cases and zero deaths when countries like Canada were struggling to get test results back within a week after sending it to the 1 lab in Winnipeg at the same time?

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If you want to see how Vietnam handled things, and still is, here’s a story that might give some insight.

Your assertion that Vietnam “lacks technology and rigor” is utter condescending garbage.

This is not some stranger, this is a former colleague of mine who left the UK in February to start flying for Vietnam Airlines.

Absolutely crazy story. It’s hard to kill a Scotsman!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53196009

#152 45north on 07.11.20 at 11:50 am

Housing Armageddon, apparently. After all, about 750,000 households are currently withholding payments on $180 billion in mortgage debt, blaming the virus. One third of the Canadian workforce is unemployed (despite this week’s stats). According to the feds, the jobless rate will still be 10% by the end of the year and 8% (at least) well into 2021.

I was watching the Big Short. The message is the housing market is stupid. Which is putting it politely. The whole premise of the movie is that if mortgages defaults go from 4% to 8%, the market will collapse. Which it did. If you apply the premise to Canada’s housing market right now, the market has collapsed. Like right now.

Garth repeats the message in his own way. Lunenburg Nova Scotia, is the message. About as far away from the housing market that you can get.

There are a lot of people that know this. Garth, the banks, CMHC, Bill Morneau. They’re all looking for a place to hide.

#153 ain't life rand on 07.11.20 at 11:52 am

@#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.11.20 at 10:12 am
@#109 Wicked
“Got back from Vietnam after living there for 1.5 years”
++++

I read somewhere you can shoot a cow with an RPG for $500 in Vietnam…… True or false.

that’s orlando. many billboards around disney promoting this.

#154 P.Ooched on 07.11.20 at 1:18 pm

| In conclusion, mortgage deferrals will be extended.

I am sure that there are some good solid upstanding Canadian citizens that this prediction will come as a relief to.

Many who comment here (reference #1) suggest/imply that the majority of people using this ‘financial option’ are doing so to ‘spend unnecessarily’ on swimming pools, dirt bikes, etc. And while I don’t doubt that there are cases where that is true, I would suggest that in the majority of cases where mortgages have been deferred, this is the exception and not the rule.

I would also suggest that in the majority of cases where people have deferred their mortgages it is because they have lost a significant portion of their household income, due to an ‘unpredictable event’ that has had a ‘severe impact’ on our national economy.

Perhaps cutting them a little slack is in order.

reference

[#1] – comments # 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 15, 17 ( sample selection from the first 20 comments in response to todays post )

#155 KNOW IT ALL on 07.12.20 at 1:25 am

So the GOVERNMENT shuts the economy down, your put of work now, they support and direct the Banksters to defer your mortgage payments and THATS A STAIN ON YOUR RECORD!!!

KINDA B.S. IS THAT?