Blather

Blog dog Dan has way too much time on his hands.  Must be a teacher. “With the help of a javascript and a perl script,” he writes, “I extracted these stats from the comment section of greaterfool for the entire month of June, 2020. Yep, it includes every posted comment for the entire 30 days. It never ceases to amaze me the amount of blather you must weed though daily.”

So last month, Dan discovered, there were 5,366 comments posted on this pathetic blog by 1,204 unique users. (Consistently about 1% of visitors leave comments. The rest know better.) That chewed up just under 3 million bytes (and hours of my life, gone forever). Here are the top 10 posters, by number of comments:

235, Sail Away
165, crowdedelevatorfartz
127, IHCTD9
121, TurnerNation
117, Faron
95, Ponzius Pilatus
78, Nonplused
65, Howard
65, Flop…
58, Wrk.dover

And by the amount of space consumed, the wordiest five (byte count): Sail Away (117,261), Crowdedelevatorfartz (93,243) IHCTD9 (73,431), TurnerNation (71,430) and Ponzius Pilatus (63,922).

Okay, so now we have a better idea of the readers who jobless, unemployable, retired, socially shunned or whose family moved out in disgust. As mentioned here last week, before I went on strike for the weekend, this site’s steerage section has been a cacophonous swamp in recent months, a condition rendered worse by that damn bug.

And that segues into the latest set of predictions. Six of them. These appear to be the defining characteristics of the period lying ahead which, it now appears, could be a lot longer than any of us thought when the snow was still around.

Jobs are easier to erase than create.
It will take years, a decade maybe, before employment returns to the level of February, 2020. Standard and Poors says Canada’s economy will be considerably reduced even after Covid is gone (if that ever happens). In the US, a key Washington agency states unemployment will stay elevated into the 2030s. Yeah, ten years. This blog estimated weeks ago the rate would be above 10% at Christmas. That may be optimistic. The implications for housing are very real. Ditto for Trump.

Rates will be in the ditch for ages.
The big banks have five-year mortgage rates down to barely above 2% now. But inflation keeps falling and the economy shrank 12% in a single month (the decline in 1931 was 10%). It now appears US rates will not rise about their current near-zero level for five years Maybe six. Our guys won’t dare change the cost of money here before the Americans do. So while house loans stay cheap (but credit will be tighter), this crushes savers. HISA accounts, GICs and bond yields will pay nothing, so risk-averse people better hope they already have a huge pile of dough or risk running out of it.

The virus has legs.
Comparatively speaking, Canada has done well. But reopening is slow, cautious, tentative and far too slow to gas the economy or restore small business. Social distancing is becoming the norm. Mandatory face coverings are coming into effect in major cities like Toronto and Ottawa. When my corporate partner announced in early April that its Toronto bank tower offices would not reopen until May 31 it looked extreme. Now it’s July. Still empty. Getting half the people back by September seems a stretch. And what if the schools stay shut? Globally Covid is getting worse, not better. The economic cooling is unprecedented. This is the time to stay liquid and flexible. Above all, eschew debt.

Trump’s toast.
So the latest surveys suggest. As the virus rips through red states, the president’s approval rating declines. His weird, hellfire, us-vs-them speeches surrounding July 4 didn’t help much. Now his son’s GF is infected. A Pew poll found people in counties (Florida, Texas, Arizona – Republican fortresses) where the virus is spreading are 50% less like to vote for Trump. Older voters, 65+, are the same, saying by a wide margin Washington should prioritize protecting people instead of reopening the economy. That’s the opposite of what Trump’s been doing. So as the virus leaves big blue cities (NY, Boston, Chicago) and assaults the Sunbelt and rural US, it’s bad news for the president. Can he survive the triple threats of a public health, record jobless numbers and civil unrest? Unlikely. But it’s four months until election day. Things change.

Real estate is for greater fools.
Low mortgage rates fuel real estate. Unemployment kills it. This is the battle to be waged over the coming months. Big banks have deferred $180 billion in mortgages, but that will end and listings increase. Credit is being tightened. CERB money will peter out. Realtors will coo over surging sales, but this is in comparison to the disaster that was April. In reality, things are more dire. Accepted offers last month in Vancouver were the lowest in 15 years at just 560. Contrast that to over 800 last June, or 1,500 the same month four years ago. “Into 2021 a whole new kind of methodology will prevail,” says analyst Dane Eitel, “the fear of overpaying for a depreciating asset.”

Money’s pumping into financials.
How can stock markets jump more than 40% from March when the virus-whacked economy sucks? This mystifies many people who point to lower corporate earnings, laid-off workers, weak export demand and soggy consumer spending. But it continues. The principal reason is simple: money is flowing where it has the best chance of a return. With interest rates in the ditch, and likely staying there for half a decade, fixed income assets pay diddly. But the pandemic will eventually subside, economic activity will rebound and traditional growth assets will grow again. It seems like a safe bet, despite inevitable volatility. Massive government and CB stimulus will continue. Trump will do anything to win. If you don’t have enough put away to retire on, saving won’t get you there with 0% rates. What choice, but to invest in the financial markets? More gains ahead.

Well, there you go. The future in 730 words. No need to blather. It’s a lock.

About the picture: “Hi Garth. I saw this today as I drove down the street in Burnaby. If you can use it in your blog…..feel free. If you use it, please mark me as an avid fan…. Anonymous :)”

179 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 07.06.20 at 12:59 pm

Well well well.

With each passing day more and more people will flee the CV cult. Just turn off your telescreen. That they got taken (again!) this time by a “Plandemic”
Put it this way, how many still believe that there’s people sitting around overseas, plotting to ‘come over here and get us’. Because, wait for it, they hate our freedoms! ROTFLOL look around. Now what freedoms. The same people pulling the strings sold us hard – via media.

As I always say take what our elite rulers tell us and flip it 180deg. Who really hated our freedoms and way of life, and who just destroyed that ?

#2 ronh on 07.06.20 at 1:02 pm

How can stock markets jump more than 40% from March when the virus-whacked economy sucks?

The FED

As stated, fiscal and monetary stimulus play a role. But there is much more. – Garth

#3 akashic record on 07.06.20 at 1:06 pm

Blog dog Dan has way too much time on his hands. Must be a teacher. “With the help of a javascript and a perl script,” he writes, “I extracted these stats from the comment section of greaterfool for the entire month of June, 2020. Yep, it includes every posted comment for the entire 30 days. It never ceases to amaze me the amount of blather you must weed though daily.”

Dan is unlikely a teacher and he doesn’t need to have much time at all in his hands. Perl will do it for him the whole month faster than you can go through half a day worth of comments from one of the top 5.

#4 Sail away on 07.06.20 at 1:07 pm

First! Haha. You lucky people, you.

#5 JacqueShellacque on 07.06.20 at 1:11 pm

Those who are predicting unemployment rates into the 2030s should also report what they had predicted for unemployment rates in years that have already passed. Most likely they were wrong, yet for some reason they continue to try to predict.

Tighter credit inevitably means interest rates will rise, doesn’t it? This will crush those seeking return in inflated equities, and if so the run for the exits will be brutal.

Are the same people who predicted the demise of His Orangeness the same ones who predicted he wouldn’t win the nomination and be elected in the first place? Because they should also be reporting what they predicted then as well.

Predictions are about being right or wrong, but life is about not being a chump.

Credit can easily tighten in a low-rate environment. It’s already happening. Your Trump love is blinding you, methinks. – Garth

#6 Yukon Elvis on 07.06.20 at 1:36 pm

#2 ronh on 07.06.20 at 1:02 pm
How can stock markets jump more than 40% from March when the virus-whacked economy sucks?

The FED
………………………………………

Money has nowhere else to go. Forget bonds and gics, no returns there. Overseas economies are in worse shape than ours. We are one of the cleanest shirts in the laundry basket.

#7 Blair on 07.06.20 at 1:48 pm

Garth, why don’t you close down the comment section? Most of the feedback is dreadful and not worth reading. It is often mean spirited, sometimes vicious, rarely rational or informed, and lacking in respect. In short, it epitomizes the low we have reached in civic discourse these days.

#8 Drew Ng on 07.06.20 at 1:49 pm

I agree that housing will take at least a year to start seeing prices really start to decline. People will be hard pressed to sell for a loss.
If the economy and jobless numbers persist over the next decade, people who have too much mortgage/credit debt, will have no choice but to sell their properties.

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.20 at 1:55 pm

I used to be #1….
The King is dead.
Long live King Sail Away.

#10 Alberta Boy on 07.06.20 at 2:12 pm

1. Never close the comment section; it is one of the few places I can actually find both sides of the argument these days.
2. Sail Away is awesome.

#11 Penny Henny on 07.06.20 at 2:17 pm

Well, there you go. The future in 730 words.-GT

That’s almost as long as one of Nonplused’s comments.

#12 Mehling on 07.06.20 at 2:22 pm

Hi Garth, do you think that dividend income from Canadian preferred shares or Canadian equities will be taxed more punitively in the next budget / future in the scramble for revenues? Seems that appeasing the younger folk is all that matters for votes. Thanks for your wonderful blog.

PS – Sail Away, I enjoy your comments. Especially the hidden fishing gems, etc in BC.

#13 Buy? Curious? on 07.06.20 at 2:35 pm

Haha! Old people have waaaaay too much time on their hands!

#14 IHCTD9 on 07.06.20 at 2:41 pm

Ahh, always the bronze medal. I was 3rd the last time some blog dog did this too.

In other news, the kids applied to a few job ads late last week, both are now employed lol!

Funny how a pandemic creates all kinds of minimum wage jobs eh?

Or was was it CERB…?

#15 Don Guillermo on 07.06.20 at 2:42 pm

#10 Alberta Boy on 07.06.20 at 2:12 pm
1. Never close the comment section; it is one of the few places I can actually find both sides of the argument these days.
2. Sail Away is awesome
*****************************************
I have to agree. The top two are my favorite posters. Makes sense as I agree with most of their comments. It also makes sense that the typical cancel culture crowd want to cancel the comment section.

#16 Alex on 07.06.20 at 2:44 pm

So, the Quebec real estate board published a notice (no June stats yet) about downtown Montreal condo listings surging by over 80%. AirBnB casualties for sure, but still… It is something. Baby steps I guess. Next step is price, and based on what I see on the market, there is no action at all right now. I see listings twice these days: once at posting, then a week or two later as a price drop. But the drops are minuscule at this point.
Stau tuned!

#17 TurnerNation on 07.06.20 at 2:44 pm

This blog even details some contradictions: if ‘distancing’ is the key then why order masks?
I tell you the goal is (continued) destruction of our way of life.

Someone else asked if CV is ‘so’ contagious why must a swab be jammed up your nose and rotated x times. Wouldn’t a drop of saliva suffice it? (This is the reason for the masks we are told, saliva droplets spreading it rights?) Cannot have it both ways.

A small business owner opined to me that he will be run out of business, big changes coming into 2030 non stop.
AMZN stock his new high today. The New System for the win.

#18 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 07.06.20 at 2:44 pm

On July 5 their were 10 deaths attributed to covid19 in Canada. Through much of April and May the death toll was over 100 per day. Deaths peaked on May 31 at 222.

While every death is a tragedy getting the daily death toll down to 10 is a public health victory.

At some point the economic and social costs of this shutdown will exceed the declining cost of Covid19 in human lives. I cannot put a number on this because that is something for us as a society to figure out. However, I think Canada is pretty close to that point.

#19 bob on 07.06.20 at 2:44 pm

How big of a decline in real-estate prices do you think we’ll see Garth? The unemployment is mostly concentrated in lower-income folks to start with, and these are the very people already renting.

Meanwhile, those who have kept their jobs and working from home may want to upgrade, non?

And all that money being printed… and all those who want to shun condos… do you really think single-detached will go into the dumpster?

#20 BoredBear on 07.06.20 at 2:54 pm

#10 AlbertaBoy, You must be kidding. Either that or you are SailAway.

#21 Linda on 07.06.20 at 2:58 pm

‘But inflation keeps falling’ which makes me wonder just exactly when deflation might come into play. Or if it already is & CB economic stimulus is simply covering up that reality. The official inflation number for May did show as a negative number. Does anyone know what must occur before deflation is declared to be an official state of being? Is there some kind of formula or checklist of economic indicators that would determine if deflation is a happening thing? Also, who makes that call?

#22 Faron on 07.06.20 at 3:02 pm

Looks like I owe you a bottle of your favourite scotch Garth.

Dan and I had the same idea. I went sailing this weekend. He, obviously, didn’t.

Perl? Really? I though the snake ate all the Perls :-).

And because I’m a pedant’s pedant (of Penzance) it would technically be a javascript script

The idea of “true world theories” speaks to me of late.

“God is dead. God remains dead. And we have killed him. How shall we comfort ourselves, the murderers of all murderers?”

–Nietzsche

#23 Sail Away on 07.06.20 at 3:03 pm

“Okay, so now we have a better idea of the readers who jobless, unemployable, retired, socially shunned or whose family moved out in disgust.”

————–

That’s sort of mean.

Let the record show that if you would like to make amends with a small gift, I am prepared to accept it.

#24 Howard on 07.06.20 at 3:12 pm

Toronto condo rented out in mid June at 2013 pricing.

https://twitter.com/xelan_gta/status/1277249128095985666

My own little tracker of downtown condos for rent on condos.ca shows another surge of listings in the past few days. I looked to be plateauing but I guess that was just end-of-month/Canada Day lull.

Let’s hope the government allows at least this part of the market to find an equilibrium on its own without intervention.

Oh and about all those students in September, here’s what one UofT faculty is stating on its Covid FAQ page:

Will I have to live in Toronto to complete my courses?

No. Nearly all Fall 2020 courses will have an online option.

https://www.artsci.utoronto.ca/covid19-artsci-student-faqs

#25 Deplorable Dude on 07.06.20 at 3:21 pm

“The virus has legs.”

———————————

“Coronavirus deaths in the country have nearly reached a level where the virus will cease to qualify as an epidemic under CDC rules, the federal agency reported on Friday.”

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/covid-19-close-losing-its-epidemic-status-us-according-cdc

#26 islander on 07.06.20 at 3:26 pm

https://www.eitelinsights.com/marketupdateblog

“June sales (Vancouver) increased along with the average price, major win for the bulls?
Not even close, the headlines can be deceiving. Once you take deeper dive the recent data is very bleak. The accepted offers in June 2020 are the lowest June in the past 15 years.”

Worth a look….

#27 Covid-18 infrctefd Lobster on 07.06.20 at 3:27 pm

DANG, I did not make the list.

FREE HONGKONG!

#28 JB on 07.06.20 at 3:31 pm

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.20 at 1:55 pm

I used to be #1….
The King is dead.
Long live King Sail Away.
…………………………………………………………………..
Remember The once great apostolic Smoking Man! I believe he would still have the record for deletes as well.

#29 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.06.20 at 3:34 pm

To those calling for the closure of the comments section I would like to point out that you are under no obligation to click on that link and read them.It is your choice to make. For a lot of us it is 50% of the reason why we are on this blog at lunch time or after dinner. Of course the main 50% (sic) is the commentary from our gracious host. Here in Canada freedom of choice is real, in all aspects of life…and it starts with small decisions. I am not saying I agree with all points of view here but I respect the right of each individual to have an opinion, how else would we know how and what our fellow humans think ? Besides you might get enraged by a diverging opinion which will make you think and realize that people are diverse and it is actually AOK.

#30 Borden Renter on 07.06.20 at 3:38 pm

Well, so much for a V shaped recovery, I suppose.

I come for Garth’s posts, and stay for crowded elevator gas’s commentary. Smelly and awkward as it is.

As for the US, it’s hard to beat a virus when one side calls you racist for wanting to shut down travel from China, and the other calls you an oppressor and refuses to wear masks or distance themselves from one another because a virus is now a political issue for some reason.

Humans confuse me.

#31 Dougie on 07.06.20 at 3:47 pm

I would suggest that you black-ball every one of the time-wasting blatherers named in today’s post, who spend too much of their time chatting with one another via your blog, or enjoy the sight of their own posts so much that they run off at the fingers. Except, they would no doubt rejoin under another fake name and email address. Don’t know how you fix this without shutting comments, at least for some months. The time-wasters would then perhaps find other outlets for their grievances/political posturings/wild conspiracy theories et al.

#32 mnpr on 07.06.20 at 3:56 pm

#11 Penny Henny

Yeah….can’t believe that nonplussed was not #1 in total word count.

Having said that, I enjoy his thoughtful comments very much.

And Sail Away… certainly no troll… instead a voice of reason. Enjoy the give and take between him and others.

There is gold amongst the dross in this comment section. Keep it going Garth. And thank-you, again for this great blog and forum.

#33 Classical Liberal Millennial on 07.06.20 at 3:59 pm

I rarely comment, but read most of them. Are Sail Awat and Faron somewhat recent commenters? Such as the past year sometime?

#34 Dolce Vita on 07.06.20 at 4:03 pm

The future in 730 words.-GT

(his word limit is 800 words).

PS: Nicely done Blog dog Dan and thanks for the info Garth.

———————–

Top 5 pretty much sums it up, how I see exactly.

“Jobs are easier to erase than create.”

That also speaks volumes about GDP. Lag time between job creation and GDP back in the black, at least 1 year. With all the debt we have now and its “drag” on GDP, make that more than 1 year. The only wrench that will make the Top 5 WORSE will ba 2nd wave, apart from the 1st wave revisited in the US.

Let’s hope Canada is prepared for that.

Though I wonder. Nice 2:34 min video, report by NBC on Coronavirus parallels to the 1918 Spanish Flu, economic and medical.

History a good teacher. Few pupils. Do we ever learn?

https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/examining-how-states-reopened-amid-the-spanish-flu-86929989719

#35 My Name is Caleb on 07.06.20 at 4:14 pm

Garth, I would have hoped that your analysis of Covid would not side with those who publish sensational stats.

Yes, Covid numbers are going up…..however, as it turns out, deaths from Covid have flatlined and are even going down. Plus over 80% of all deaths in Canada have occurred in Senior’s care centres and many of the other unfortunate deaths have occurred with those who have had pre-existing conditions.

From the CDC web site: Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.0% during week 25 to 5.9% during week 26, representing the tenth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC.

By the way….my money is on Trump.

#36 Dolce Vita on 07.06.20 at 4:23 pm

Read this article today by CBC titled:

“How fashion retailers are surviving COVID-19 on the long road back to normalcy”

To me the key words words were “back to normalcy”.

Well after today’s Top 5 a snowballs hope in Hades that will happen. Not the only one with that thought, others after some key US historical events:

“Back to Normalcy?” -The New Yorker, Aug. 22, 1931.

“There is no such thing as normalcy, we are constantly in a process of change.” -Melvin Price, Mar. 24, 1947.

———————–

Incidentally CBC, I would rather commit Seppeku than see Saddle Oxfords make a come back. And in that image those shoes are screaming out loud for some Bobby Socks (why you should let Italia do fashion CBC):

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/retail-covid-fashion-1.5636953?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar

Apologies to any of you that wore Poodle Skirts as well (and actually liked them).

#37 Freedom First on 07.06.20 at 4:32 pm

It is very hard to make predictions. Especially about the future.-Yogi Berra

Being diversified, balanced, liquid, and debt free since the beginning, has given me a wonderful life. It takes knowledge, thinking, flexibility, and creativity, but the satisfaction and rewards have been priceless in every way.

Freedom First

#38 Sail Away on 07.06.20 at 4:36 pm

To Faron:

“God is dead” –Nietzsche

“Nietzsche is dead” -God

#39 Faron on 07.06.20 at 4:40 pm

#15 Don Guillermo on 07.06.20 at 2:42 pm

“It also makes sense that the typical cancel culture crowd want to cancel the comment section”

and

#29 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.06.20 at 3:34 pm

No. We and others are concerned that, having to choose between something of value — Garth’s Blog — and something of negative value — the comments section, mine included — it’s best to opt for the thing of value. There are a billion crappy open forums on the net full of deplorables and snowflakes but there’s only one Garth. Plus, the hours spent posting comments here could probably have gone a long ways to solving world hunger by now.

#40 Grand Puba on 07.06.20 at 4:41 pm

#7 Blair on 07.06.20 at 1:48 pm
Garth, why don’t you close down the comment section? Most of the feedback is dreadful and not worth reading. It is often mean spirited, sometimes vicious, rarely rational or informed, and lacking in respect. In short, it epitomizes the low we have reached in civic discourse these days.
XxxxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxxxx

I Agree. Close Down the comments section. The majority of the comments have No Reality.

How about it Garth? Close it Down for 10 days and go from there.

#41 ImGonnaBeSick on 07.06.20 at 4:43 pm

I get a kick out of the comments from that group.. except for two of them… :D

#42 Oakville Sucks on 07.06.20 at 4:45 pm

1. Stock Markets are going up because the FED et al. are buying up and artificially inflating them. It’s all smoke and mirrors. I pulled everything out…everything… it’s no mystery to many of us.

2. Trump will win again by starting a war…it’s the oldest trick in the book.

3. CBC = Leftist Propaganda

#43 BlorgDorg on 07.06.20 at 4:46 pm

> With interest rates in the ditch, and likely staying there for half a decade, fixed income assets pay diddly.

Preferred shares are currently paying about 6%. The 20% gain since March when they were under $7 doesn’t hurt either.

Indeed. Prefs are a hybrid – equity with bond characteristics. – Garth

#44 S.Bby on 07.06.20 at 4:49 pm

well now there’s this:

https://globalnews.ca/news/7142138/coronavirus-airborne-scientists-who/

#45 S.Bby on 07.06.20 at 4:51 pm

Then there is this:

https://globalnews.ca/news/7144280/spain-immunity-study-coronavirus/

Bad news for “herd immunity”…

#46 Brian Ripley on 07.06.20 at 4:51 pm

regarding:

“…do you really think single-detached will go into the dumpster?” #19 bob on 07.06.20 at 2:44 pm

My Calgary housing chart (June data) may provide an answer, although it may only reflect resource dominated jurisdictions:
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

Average Condo prices lead the way down 24.4% below their June 2014 peak keeping them at MAY 2006 price levels.

Average single family detached prices continued to find buyer support as total residential sales moved up to the highs of the last 5 years. The ratio of total listings to total sales in Calgary is now only 3.6.

The employed in Alberta enjoy the highest average employment earnings at $64,544/yr (April 2020 print, 2 month lag) which includes the government shutdown subsidy and are now in total 12% above Canada’s national average. But in Canada, only 20% of households have a net worth greater than $1,000,000 (see my post “Household Net Worth” of June 2020).

#47 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.06.20 at 4:53 pm

Not top ten? I’m pissed.

#48 YouKnowWho on 07.06.20 at 4:56 pm

Garth, here is something I read that I didn’t think about until I read it.

Virus will accelerate use of automation, robotics, AI, Watson, etc. to replace workers. Obviously.

Sunshine and Mermicorns, eh? You don’t know what a Mermicorn is Garth? Neither did I, until I saw the float as the beach. It’s real!

#49 Flanneur on 07.06.20 at 5:00 pm

Blair, … yet you read them.

#50 TurnerNation on 07.06.20 at 5:08 pm

#36 Dolce on Queen St West in TO I saw a long line ups today outside a fashion store. Must have been quite the sale.


In General..I somehow went on and on about this stuff in Q1. Well before the shut down. How’d I know? I didn’t exactly; only that our global rulers were tightening the noose. It’s all here:
….

…………
#6 TurnerNation on 12.02.19 at 3:28 pm
As yourself what is the “economic justice” they speak of, what does this mean to your homes and capital gains. It is moving SO fast now into 2020-2021. Don’t listen to me just watch

#9 TurnerNation on 12.30.19 at 4:56 pm
2020-2021 we will face food shortages and rationing. Due to the government/UN’s actions. Remember from history that famines are always man-made

#6 TurnerNation on 01.12.20 at 2:20 pm
Things will speed up SO fast in 2020-2021 to roll out the plans. Nobody will come to your door and take away your property no. They’ll just take 5-10% of its value away in Tax each year, and empty home tax, land transfer tax, capital gains on sales taxes (stay tuned!), carbon taxes. In a down market this would prove fatal.

#33 TurnerNation on 01.26.20 at 5:54 pm
I’ve been pounding the table, that the 2020-2021 things will be moving SO fast. (I mean it’s not like there a global plan or something…I don’t leave even my breakfast to chance).

#11 TurnerNation on 02.25.20 at 5:08 pm
Been warning you guys, 2020-21 will be totally man made crises as we come fully under UN control.
There is a plan, a timeline and a masterful execution.

#38 TurnerNation on 03.08.20 at 5:14 pm
2020-21 utter chaos is planned.have I said to much…

#65 TurnerNation on 03.10.20 at 6:24 pm
Suspension of travel rights. Forced containment. Devestation of industry.
2020-21 I maintain there is a plan. Been rolling out since Jan.

#51 Long-Time Lurker on 07.06.20 at 5:23 pm

I don’t know how there isn’t going to be a political explosion in the U.S. in November. There is either going to be an election or there isn’t going to be an election (Wuhan-400); and whoever wins will have half the population going stark raving mad.

There’s a lot of stuff going on across the border. In sum: civil war groups forming, exodus from cities, pandemic increases, cold war with Red China, battered economy.

#52 Michael Bruce Chase on 07.06.20 at 5:26 pm

Well that’s a lot of “predictions”. Ever since this bug came to town there has been a lot of “experts” predicting things. So many of them have got things WRONG, that it basically isn’t worth listening to the “experts” any more. Sure a lot of predictions could come true, but maybe not. Who remembers the predictions that do not come to pass. I’m sure some other black swan event will come along to change the direction for investors. I’m just going to stick to a few dividend paying stocks to generate income to top up my meager pension income.

#53 Faron on 07.06.20 at 5:29 pm

#38 Sail Away on 07.06.20 at 4:36 pm

To Faron:

“God is dead” –Nietzsche

“Nietzsche is dead” -God

Ha, that’s funny.

Just curious: which god is your quote from? And, if a monotheistic god, did they give you authority to quote them outside one of the many consecrated texts from one of the numerous monotheistic religions? I gather you are christian, so please feel free to sub in “He” “Him” and “the bible” in the above.

I lean animistic if anything.

#54 Marco on 07.06.20 at 5:33 pm

Do not kill comments. They are real. PM Trudeau taking a knee is a fraud.
Bob Rae named ambassador to UN. Apparently , there is country for old men.

#55 Kevin on 07.06.20 at 5:37 pm

Blair:
“Garth, why don’t you close down the comment section? Most of the feedback is dreadful and not worth reading. It is often mean spirited, sometimes vicious, rarely rational or informed, and lacking in respect. In short, it epitomizes the low we have reached in civic discourse these days.”

Totally agree with Blair and Grand Puba. Time to kill this section, probably a lot of misinformation at work, and ultimately, will grate at your soul for reading through all this garbage. I only search for your responses anyways.

That, or provide a comments rating system to let the cream rise to the top, and the crap to sink.

Thanks as always.

#56 Don Guillermo on 07.06.20 at 5:44 pm

#39 Faron on 07.06.20 at 4:40 pm
#15 Don Guillermo on 07.06.20 at 2:42 pm

“It also makes sense that the typical cancel culture crowd want to cancel the comment section”

and

#29 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.06.20 at 3:34 pm

No. We and others are concerned that, having to choose between something of value — Garth’s Blog — and something of negative value — the comments section, mine included — it’s best to opt for the thing of value. There are a billion crappy open forums on the net full of deplorables and snowflakes but there’s only one Garth. Plus, the hours spent posting comments here could probably have gone a long ways to solving world hunger by now.
******************************************

You’re probably just upset I didn’t give you top billing :).

Actually we were well on our way to solving world hunger, then the left wing climate alarmists hijacked the agenda.

#57 The TRUMP Pandemic/Depression on 07.06.20 at 5:52 pm

As stated, fiscal and monetary stimulus play a role. But there is much more. – Garth ….

and so they will play a roll in continuing the housing drive and wait till Hong Kong gets here in the very near future… Yup,,, just like before it will be housing that continues to make the middle-class wealth…

It’s doing a great job at indebting the middle class. Do not forget that 20% of all mortgaged homeowners cannot currently pay their monthly. – Garth

#58 T on 07.06.20 at 5:52 pm

#7 Blair on 07.06.20 at 1:48 pm
Garth, why don’t you close down the comment section? Most of the feedback is dreadful and not worth reading. It is often mean spirited, sometimes vicious, rarely rational or informed, and lacking in respect. In short, it epitomizes the low we have reached in civic discourse these days.

——————

My wife has ‘Housewives of NY / LA’. I have Greater Fool comments. We both like drama and discourse. :)

#59 Now you've done it ... on 07.06.20 at 5:54 pm

I gotta hankerin’ fer bacon …

#60 JSquared on 07.06.20 at 5:57 pm

Here’s an idea…why not limit the top 10 posters per month to ONE post per day, for a month. Maybe that would start to encourage Quality vs. Quantity.
I mean really people, show a little more respect for Garth’s time! I’m sure he would much rather be spending his free time elsewhere, doing anything other than moderating some reader’s verbal diarrhea. He’s gracious enough to put the thought & effort into a blog, seven days a week, that thousands of people enjoy. It’s time for some posters to start hitting their own delete buttons.
If you feel your thoughts/opinions are so invaluable that they must be read by the masses, maybe take the time to create (and moderate) your own blog!

#61 Beetman on 07.06.20 at 5:58 pm

#51
I agree there’s too many experts that don’t know Jack.
We’ve never had so many experts in the history of the world and never had such a mess. The experts got it wrong on peak oil, man made global warming and their getting it wrong on the Covit 19. I know one thing if we had less lawyers, bankers and politicians and useless paper shufflers, the world would be better off. Further more if we want to get a real feeling of what’s going on talk José. https://images.app.goo.gl/KLU7WNp3Bh7pnGsq8

#62 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 07.06.20 at 6:02 pm

money is flowing where it has the best chance of a return.
—————————————————————-
Most people don’t understand the money flow theory of investing. It explains the high price of housing in Vancouver. Value measures like price to income and price to rent have been useless there for a long time. People complain about stock prices being too high, but they are not as overpriced as bonds and real estate. The price to earnings ratio for stocks is high by historical standards, but still lower than similar measures for bonds and real estate.

I used to skip the guest blog on the weekend but now it is my favourite. Anyone who didn’t read Ryan’s contribution on July 4th really missed out. In the comments section (#17) he posted a link to an article explaining why stocks are in a long term bull market and will go much higher over the next several years.

#63 David Pylyp on 07.06.20 at 6:04 pm

http://www.irasmithinc.com/blog/insolvencies-in-canada/?fbclid=IwAR0RRagxmWQz8JXSxXCMe-r9NvG5k9-Mr-RrxamQvrAp1QjDk5fAsGdnC_0

Great Explanation of Managing expectations for 2020

Ira Smith ( Trustee ) Talks about companies that are holding people in layoff mode to avoid Severance Packages to terminated employees. CERB and Lease subsidies for entrepreneurs are coming to an end. Managing expectations will be different.

Ontario Courts opened this week; so I expect a SURGE in Power of Sale Notices.

Sure credit is cheap… If you have a job.

David Pylyp
Toronto

#64 forgotmyusername on 07.06.20 at 6:07 pm

Well, for what it’s worth, I enjoy Sail Away’s input.

I wish comments would focus more on making some point than on picking a fight, or putting someone else down.

Garth, you may be under-estimating ‘silent support’ for Trump. In many places, or platforms, there is actual risk for saying anything that is pro-Orange Man.

Also, many seem inclined to forget/forgive that Biden, too, comes with baggage. Biden’s many (and significant) negatives will be highlighted at great length when the campaign heats up.

Some of us are old enough to recall that this is Biden’s 3rd run for the presidency.
https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/politics/2019/04/25/how-joe-biden-ran-for-president-the-first-two-times/3571822002/

He can hardly run as some new force for change after being in high office since ….1973!

IMO, the tragedy is that US voters (once again) have such a poor set of choices.

The Babylon Bee said it best:
https://babylonbee.com/news/search-for-the-two-best-possible-candidates-for-president-concludes

(quote) “I’m a little apprehensive for Election Day,” said Della Daniels, a teacher, echoing the sentiment of many voters. “How in the world am I supposed to decide between two such great individuals?”

“This is proof democracy doesn’t work,” said political analyst, Willard Bradley. “People are given this absolutely impossible choice and told they have to pick. I mean everyone loves Donald Trump, but we’re also in complete awe of Joe Biden. Yet we have to pick one. It’s like being asked to pick between sunshine and the laughter of babies.” (end quote)

Never forget how wrong polls can be. Or that Biden can (once again) win the popular vote, but lose the election in the Electoral College.

It doesn’t matter if people find that unfair. It is how that election gets decided. And the US Constitution would have to be amended to change that, which is a long, hard process.

#65 Sail Away on 07.06.20 at 6:13 pm

#52 Faron on 07.06.20 at 5:29 pm

Just curious: which god is your quote from?

I lean animistic if anything.

———–

Hey, same here. My god speaks through a squirrel in the yard. He’s usually bitching about the dogs and cat or his other squirrel problems, but sometimes has profound insights. All my stock picks come from the little fella.

#66 n1tro on 07.06.20 at 6:20 pm

#43 S.Bby on 07.06.20 at 4:49 pm
well now there’s this:

https://globalnews.ca/news/7142138/coronavirus-airborne-scientists-who/
———
Primer to justify making the sheep…err..I mean people have to wear masks 24/7 despite the low effectiveness of fabric masks.

#67 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.06.20 at 6:24 pm

The WHO does an about face on Covid, saying now that asymptomatic people aren’t spreading it and that distancing is pointless. This is making news throughout the world except in Canada where all of the radio talk show hosts, TV anchors and newspaper editors are in lockstep with the fear-mongering and with pushing the use of masks. https://lobservateur.info/coup-de-tonnerre-les-personnes-asymptomatiques-ne-transmettraient-pas-le-virus-oms/?fbclid=IwAR3pCNVAyVSm5mck1zsphhERo5K_4bQFKk1P0hCNuP4XyDPzsyFFw0_79BQ

#68 Do we have all the facts on 07.06.20 at 6:28 pm

In spite of assistance to businesses and individuals from the Government of Canada the six major banks have set aside over $10 billion in provisions for credit losses. This does not support claims that the Canadian economy is on the verge of recovery.

How long can assistance from the Government of Canada
continue before the cost of servicing additional debt becomes a problem?

Without continued assistance from the Government of Canada how large could the provisions for credit losses become? Would a substantial increase in the provisions for credit losses by major banks result in a tightening of credit and a slowing of economic growth?

Optimistic projections of economy recovery in Canada do not gel with what seems to be happening on the ground.
All signs point to a prolonged recovery that remains fully dependant on continued support from the Government of Canada.

It is hard to see how the profitability of a majority of Canadian companies can be maintained during this period of high unemployment and uncertainty.

The current stock markets are extrinsically driven by a belief that the economy is on the verge of improvement. The intrinsic values of most stocks, mutual funds or ETF’s are substantially lower than their current market value.

If the pace of economic recovery does not pick up soon the extrinsic value of most stocks, mutual funds and ETF’s
could shift towards their intrinsic value.

Timing of investment appears critical.

#69 Terry on 07.06.20 at 6:37 pm

Alternate future:

– Covid second wave returns more infectious and
deadlier than before. (Mutations).
– City by city, state by state the U.S. shuts down again.
– U.S. elections are deferred until further notice.
– No vaccine will ever be created for this virus because
there has never been a successful Corona virus
vaccine ever created……..and there never will be.
– World markets crash again collapsing down past the
March lows.
– The leftist anarchists rage with fury everywhere.
– The U.S. cracks down with deadly force on the rioters.

Time is almost up everyone. There is no going back to
a civilized world this time. You better bet against the U.S. and get to safety because America and law and
order are breaking down fast. When America goes down so does the world. Prepare.

Told-Ya-So.

#70 Wrk.dover on 07.06.20 at 6:50 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 07.06.20 at 12:59 pm

As I always say take what our elite rulers tell us and flip it 180deg.

————————————————-

And my name really should be “Charmed”.

I’m embarrassed that I have made 58 comments here, but I really had nothing to prove. I need to go back to talking to myself exclusively.

He is so readily impressed by me!

#71 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.06.20 at 6:54 pm

#31 Dougie on 07.06.20 at 3:47 pm Snidely remarks:

“I would suggest that you black-ball every one of the time-wasting blatherers named in today’s post, who spend too much of their time chatting with one another via your blog, or enjoy the sight of their own posts so much that they run off at the fingers. Except, they would no doubt rejoin under another fake name and email address. Don’t know how you fix this without shutting comments, at least for some months. The time-wasters would then perhaps find other outlets for their grievances/political posturings/wild conspiracy theories et al.”

————————————————
I suggest your blackball “Dougie” and her ilk.

#72 Mattl on 07.06.20 at 6:59 pm

It’s doing a great job at indebting the middle class. Do not forget that 20% of all mortgaged homeowners cannot currently pay their monthly. – Garth

———————-

Aren’t paying and cannot pay are not the same thing. No one knows what the actual number is on people that can’t pay.

What I do know is collectables, boats, RV’s and other high ticket items are selling like gangbusters. I suspect a significant amount of mortgage deferral moola is making its way into other areas of the economy. And that a significant amount of that 20% can pay but is taking a mortgage holiday. Because this recession is a strange one – every consumer item I track is up, in some cases significantly.

We considered taking it and investing- who really cares about the deferral of money at 2% – but couldn’t be bothered.

#73 Bobby Bittman on 07.06.20 at 7:07 pm

Any interest in having a popularity vote on the top ten commenters? Oh wait a minute….that’s not very inclusive of me. Virtual participant ribbons for all…lol

#74 CJohnC on 07.06.20 at 7:19 pm

Before the virus comments used to average about 120/day. Post virus they go from about 250 to 300+ per day. As #31 says, time-wasting blatherers named in today’s post, who spend too much of their time chatting with one another via your blog, or enjoy the sight of their own posts so much that they run off at the fingers.

The solution of course is to go back to limiting posters to 3 posts like the old days. Many a poster got caught with that when they started to blather.

It worked, but since Garth seems to have given up on that rule, he must be a sucker for punishment.

#75 april on 07.06.20 at 7:27 pm

From what we’ve heard the real estate “crash” has been ” delayed” due to CERB and mortgage deferrals for at least another 6months….???

No prediction of a crash here. Housing will just go limp. Price erosion takes time. – Garth

#76 april on 07.06.20 at 7:29 pm

#67- Could we have that link expressed in English?

#77 Nonplused on 07.06.20 at 7:30 pm

Those stats, like most, are misleading. I only usually post one comment in response to the daily post and the rest are usually replies to other comments. Still adds up I suppose. There is a bit of a conversation that goes on in the comments section which is one of the things that attracts people to it. You can’t do that over at Zerohedge. If you think this comment section is a mess… whew. It’s pretty tame. For the most part it is reflective of a higher class of readers and comments than you find most places on “the internets”.

Anyway as to your predictions, pretty hard to argue with them except the “Trump’s toast” one. Going into the last election people were saying Hillary had a 90% chance of winning. The folks at CNN were literally in disbelief come election day, some even crying. So of the predictions I think this one is the hardest one to make and will be right up until Nov. 3.

You make a good case that covid and the economy will be major factors but I think most people are coming to realise that it is state governors who are primarily responsible for their covid response, not Trump. And he’s been pretty responsive to Dr. Fauci, more so than the Trump haters would like to admit.

But I think the real wildcard will be the riots, looting and arson. I think the number of people taking to these activities is probably pretty small compared to the number of people who are aghast at them. Same thing with the statue vandals. So far the democrats including Biden have been extremely reluctant to condemn the violence. Some states including California have banned singing in church but not screaming at protests. This will factor into the poll results. Remember last time it was only Fox news that gave Trump any chance of winning at all. Personally I don’t know why Trump would even want another 4 years but the election remains Trump vs. Not Trump which is why the democrats aren’t even bothering to find a decent candidate. But I guess you could say the last election was Clinton vs. Not Clinton too. Anyway I’ll be on the couch with a big bowl of popcorn Nov. 3.

#78 FreeBird on 07.06.20 at 7:31 pm

#67 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.06.20 at 6:24 pm
The WHO does an about face on Covid, saying now that asymptomatic people aren’t spreading it and that distancing is pointless. This is making news throughout the world except in Canada where all of the radio talk show hosts, TV anchors and newspaper editors are in lockstep with the fear-mongering and with pushing the use of masks. https://lobservateur.info/coup-de-tonnerre-les-personnes-asymptomatiques-ne-transmettraient-pas-le-virus-oms/?fbclid=IwAR3pCNVAyVSm5mck1zsphhERo5K_4bQFKk1P0hCNuP4XyDPzsyFFw0_79BQ
—————————
Interesting to see where the balance of credible evidence lands.

No studies for social distancing of asymptomatic healthcare workers and family members by Evidence Service Team Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences University of Oxford

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/are-interventions-such-as-social-distancing-effective-at-reducing-the-risk-of-asymptomatic-healthcare-workers-transmitting-covid-19-infection-to-other-household-members/

#79 Nonplused on 07.06.20 at 7:41 pm

PS. I can’t remember if it was Doug or Ryan that commented once that their posts didn’t get as many comments as Garth’s do so I try and think of something to say to encourage them, because I do enjoy their posts (and Sinan’s too). It was a good add to throw in the extra contributors. You don’t have a “like” button. Uh oh that’s 2 comments today and I haven’t even got to reading the comments.

#80 baloney Sandwitch on 07.06.20 at 7:42 pm

The principal reason is simple: money is flowing where it has the best chance of a return. – well stupid money is flowing into overpriced financial assets. The real bargains are in commodities. Here is chart of commodities plotted against the S&P 500 – its just bounding off 25 year lows.
http://schrts.co/QDPCZzsQ

#81 Nonplused on 07.06.20 at 7:46 pm

#11 Penny Henny on 07.06.20 at 2:17 pm

Well, there you go. The future in 730 words.-GT

That’s almost as long as one of Nonplused’s comments.

———————————

Hey… I resemble that statement. Anyway there is a scroll wheel right in the middle of your mouse.

#82 AGuyInVancouver on 07.06.20 at 7:49 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 07.06.20 at 12:59 pm
Well well well.

With each passing day more and more people will flee the CV cult. Just turn off your telescreen. That they got taken (again!) this time by a “Plandemic”
Put it this way, how many still believe that there’s people sitting around overseas, plotting to ‘come over here and get us’. Because, wait for it, they hate our freedoms! ROTFLOL look around. Now what freedoms. The same people pulling the strings sold us hard – via media.

As I always say take what our elite rulers tell us and flip it 180deg. Who really hated our freedoms and way of life, and who just destroyed that ?
_ _ _
Well, there you go. Apparently Garth’s name and shame went right over Turner Nation’s head. He had to chime in first with one his trademark loony conspiracy theory ramblings.

#83 AM in MN on 07.06.20 at 7:52 pm

#5 JacqueShellacque

“Tighter credit inevitably means interest rates will rise, doesn’t it? ”

This misconception is one of the underlying reasons why Trump won in 2016… and will again.

The FED (& global CB’s all tied to it) run a game where they print money and lend it to friends and insiders at near 0%, but make the conditions such that average people don’t qualify, even at higher rates.

These unelected masters and controllers of the economy do this through things like Central Bank “stress tests”, for which elites in the back room, who really don’t care who wins the election, decide who gets loans and who don’t. The Soviet Central Planning Commissions were small fish compared to this cartel.

The solution is to move to a free market economy… or else, eventually, war and revolution to re-balance the ownership of assets. The present system helps make the 1% more asset rich as they can buy assets (like your mortgage) with near free money, the printing of which is essentially a wealth tax on everyone, and only works because they have the guns, police, courts and prisons to enforce it all… until they don’t.

There was a good book written by (I forget his name), former head of BB&T Bank and then the Cato Institute, of which I took issue with a lot of his points, and written annoyingly in the feminine, explained the stress test scam and it’s central planning characteristics well.

For example, they had a client who owned a used car lot and financed the cars they sold. A lot of their clients were illegal immigrants, and they charged interest of 2%/month, which they had borrowed at 5-6%/year. Very good re-payment rates as these cars were critical to the clients ability to get to work. The FED came in on a stress test and ordered the loan book shut down… or else the bank gets a lower bond rating. They wanted, for instance, them to lend more money to government workers for overpriced residential real estate… in order to get a “good” bond rating.

Never mind what the market was telling them and where their profits were coming from.

For the lower 90% of the population, you cannot win in this rigged game. One day there will be a re-balancing. Gold (physical) and Bitcoin will be good safe harbours during this process.

#84 Nonplused on 07.06.20 at 7:55 pm

#32 mnpr on 07.06.20 at 3:56 pm
#11 Penny Henny

Yeah….can’t believe that nonplussed was not #1 in total word count.

Having said that, I enjoy his thoughtful comments very much.

—————————-

I’ll take that as a complement. I have been trying to shorten it up but that takes a lot of time. And sometimes there just isn’t a way to say things without some elaboration to make sure people have the context. Or at least I’m not good at it anyway.

#85 GrumpyPanda on 07.06.20 at 8:03 pm

Suppose Kanye West ran as a 3rd party candidate? Could he steal enough Democratic votes for Trump to win again? It seems impossible but then I never thought Trump could win the candidacy never mind the election.

#86 Nonplused on 07.06.20 at 8:12 pm

#71 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.06.20 at 6:54 pm
#31 Dougie on 07.06.20 at 3:47 pm Snidely remarks:

“I would suggest that you black-ball every one of the time-wasting blatherers named in today’s post, who spend too much of their time chatting with one another via your blog, or enjoy the sight of their own posts so much that they run off at the fingers. Except, they would no doubt rejoin under another fake name and email address. Don’t know how you fix this without shutting comments, at least for some months. The time-wasters would then perhaps find other outlets for their grievances/political posturings/wild conspiracy theories et al.”

————————————————
I suggest your blackball “Dougie” and her ilk.

———————————-

I mean, I feel for Garth having to spend so much time moderating this comment section, but the fact is some of us (myself included) like it. And it’s there, so why not use it? It is a better forum than most. “Dougie” seems like the type that wouldn’t let her kids use the playground because “it is a waste of time”. And I don’t understand why there are people here in the comments section saying Garth should get rid of the comments section. They don’t have to click the link or read them.

To all the Nonplused haters out there I have some simple advice: I won’t know if you scroll over my comments any more than I would know if you “unfriend” me on Facebook.

#87 Yukon Elvis on 07.06.20 at 8:18 pm

#77 Nonplused on 07.06.20 at 7:30 pm

But I think the real wildcard will be the riots, looting and arson. I think the number of people taking to these activities is probably pretty small compared to the number of people who are aghast at them.
…………………………………

And Kanye West. He might pull enough black support away from Biden to give Trump the win.

#88 KNOW IT ALL on 07.06.20 at 8:19 pm

What WE are witnessing right now are the DISINTEGRATION of the DEMOcratic and REPUblican parties.

The BEST things that move society forward are INCENTIVES……think about it.

Those are best designed by people who are experts at policy NOT politics.

But the PENDULUM will continue to swing from one extreme to another until the earth is rid of all it’s sadness and poverty.

and It will once again be a planet of JOY!!

#89 SoggyShorts on 07.06.20 at 8:31 pm

#65 Sail Away on 07.06.20 at 6:13 pm
#52 Faron on 07.06.20 at 5:29 pm

Just curious: which god is your quote from?
I lean animistic if anything.
———–

Hey, same here. My god speaks through a squirrel in the yard. He’s usually bitching about the dogs and cat or his other squirrel problems, but sometimes has profound insights. All my stock picks come from the little fella.
*****************************
https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/modeling

#90 Bezengy on 07.06.20 at 8:32 pm

“before I went on strike for the weekend”

How’s the Harley running?

#91 Deplorable Dude on 07.06.20 at 9:02 pm

#85 GrumpyPanda…” Suppose Kanye West ran as a 3rd party candidate? Could he steal enough Democratic votes for Trump to win again?”

Yep, if Kayne ran as an independent he could very conceivably siphon off a significant number of Dem black votes from Biden.

Biden could counter by choosing a black VP….my money is on Kamila Harris…..strange that he still hasn’t announced who his running mate is…..?

If he does run watch for the character assassination onslaught from the liberal media.

#92 Tim123 on 07.06.20 at 9:08 pm

I have to agree with most of the post. I think Trump is going to lose but if the Senate stays Republican then there will not be many changes. Interest rates will definitely stay low and savers will have trouble increasing their portfolios unless they enter the equity markets. Real Estate will definitely be dropping over the next few years, except the majority of people do not see it coming. They have been conditioned to think real estate can only go up. I view the markets as being at the top end of the range but can still be traded. Some strategic shorts for some stocks that have gotten ahead of themselves are always something that I look for. There is a lot of momentum in the markets so the direction will be up for now although there could be volatility.

#93 1255 on 07.06.20 at 9:10 pm

A German and a pig walk into a bar…

#94 Captain Uppa on 07.06.20 at 9:16 pm

Say what you want, ON real estate is hotter than lava right now.

So if the doomer prediction of a Fall free fall comes true, a TON of people are gonna be screwed.

Yeah, somehow I doubt that.

Who, exactly, predicted a free fall? – Garth

#95 WIN not lose on 07.06.20 at 9:31 pm

Maybe Dr. Garth could lighten up the comment section by allowing pictures and memes.
Would we see more dogs than cats?
More American than Canadian memes? (Canadians don’t quite have the skill of Americans)

#96 Dave on 07.06.20 at 9:52 pm

The S&P 500 is likely do a “Golden Cross” on Wednesday. This means the 50 day moving average crosses higher then the 200 day moving average. It’s the most reliable technical signal there is in the market. Only once in the past 40 years did a golden cross go negative…it’s a mega big deal for bulls. $$$$

#97 Drill Baby Drill on 07.06.20 at 9:53 pm

Ok I can see were someone would think that Trump is finished Nov 01/20. But look at the alternative.

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.20 at 9:55 pm

@#88 No it all
“But the PENDULUM will continue to swing from one extreme to another until the earth is rid of all it’s sadness and poverty……
and It will once again be a planet of JOY!!
+++++

And which planet would that be?
Or are you predicting Earth after Covid rids the population of all the sad and poverty stricken?
….on second thought………
haPPy CaNabIs dAy? iS tHaT YoO?

#99 Ah steerage......... on 07.06.20 at 9:56 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 07.06.20 at 12:59 pm

Well well well.

With each passing day more and more people will flee the CV cult. Just turn off your telescreen. That they got taken (again!) this time by a “Plandemic”
Put it this way, how many still believe that there’s people sitting around overseas, plotting to ‘come over here and get us’. Because, wait for it, they hate our freedoms! ROTFLOL look around. Now what freedoms. The same people pulling the strings sold us hard – via media.

As I always say take what our elite rulers tell us and flip it 180deg. Who really hated our freedoms and way of life, and who just destroyed that ?

….
yer completely nutz dude………….

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.20 at 9:57 pm

@#90 Drill Baby
“Ok I can see were someone would think that Trump is finished Nov 01/20.”

++++

Ummmm.
The election is Nov 4th…..
Are you telling us something before it happens?

#101 Trojan House on 07.06.20 at 10:02 pm

I do question and/or wonder what is going on with the continuation of all the lockdowns. I’m not sure if politicians have the cajones to make any decisions other than to continue what’s already in place. I used Ottawa as an example last week so I will use them again because as of today mask are “mandatory.” Here are the stats from the city’s own public health department:

https://www.ottawapublichealth.ca/en/reports-research-and-statistics/daily-covid19-dashboard.aspx

A quick snapshot for those that don’t want to click the link…total confirmed cases to date are 2118. Total deaths to date are 263. Currently there are 54 active cases with 3 in hospital and one in ICU. 1805 of those cases have been resolved (85%). Interestingly, healthcare workers made up 26% of cases or about 570. Probably because of the so-called “viral load.” Only 33% of ICU beds are occupied (from everyone in hospital not only Covid cases), and only 5% of ICU ventilator beds are occupied (from everyone in hospital).

Interestingly from the stats – 223 of the 263 deaths were at long term care homes!

Ottawa is a city of 1 million people (just on the Ontario side). Looking at the above numbers, is this a pandemic? This is more like a bad flu season and that is even questionable. Yet Ottawa remains at “orange alert” just below the vaulted red alert. And they want everyone to wear masks when all the graph lines are spiraling downward. Meanwhile, small businesses are going under and the city is projected to be in a budget deficit of $192 million. How many other cities are like this? Why are they continuing these lockdowns?

#102 Don on 07.06.20 at 10:04 pm

Kelowna waterfront house prices saw 9 sales in June, the same as 2017. The only difference is that prices are down 18%.

#103 Captain Uppa on 07.06.20 at 10:07 pm

#95 Captain Uppa on 07.06.20 at 9:16 pm
Say what you want, ON real estate is hotter than lava right now.

So if the doomer prediction of a Fall free fall comes true, a TON of people are gonna be screwed.

Yeah, somehow I doubt that.

Who, exactly, predicted a free fall? – Garth

———————————————-

I thought you read and kept track of the steerage section posts?

Oh and Evan Siddall in the 18% range (high end).

#104 april on 07.06.20 at 10:12 pm

#95 – someone seems to have a need to keep pumping real estate.

#105 Capt. Serious on 07.06.20 at 10:22 pm

People are going to have to deal with going for more equities, volatility and probably lower returns compared to the long run returns equities have delivered. A lot of people will mess it up as the margin between making something above inflation and losing shrinks. Careful if you were assuming something like 7% real return for equities. Probably not happening over the next 20 years.

Hardly. – Garth

#106 lifexprt on 07.06.20 at 10:25 pm

Just as you are not being forced to read the blog, reading the comments is up to the individual. Those advocating for shutting them down, why not just finish your nightly read before the comments section instead of projecting your views onto others who obviously find benefit with its existence, like myself for example.

#107 will on 07.06.20 at 10:42 pm

maybe the top ten should start their own blogs and take their fans with them

#108 Nothing Surprises on 07.06.20 at 10:44 pm

The top ten listed quantifies why I avoid the them!!

#109 mike from mtl on 07.06.20 at 10:44 pm

Well the peanut gallery was certainly right on two calls.

-Desirable RE will never appreciably be affordable.
-Interest rates will never raise & stay there.

In addition uncle Warren had the right call to sell off the airlines, free air travel as annoying as it was post 9/11 is basically dead for at least a few years. It is not that flying is inherently dangerous but governments have shown their hands that apparently the moving goal posts mean indefinite measures CAN be taken. It’s all a political numbers game.

I’d be honestly impressed if the next major global event, Olympics summer 2021, allow International travellers at this point.

#110 Gonkman on 07.06.20 at 11:03 pm

#102 Trojan House on 07.06.20 at 10:02 pm

******************************************

Stop talking sense. I live in Ottawa. As of tomorrow I refuse to spend another $ in any store except for groceries to keep my family fed.

When they stop the nonsense of mask wearing or make it optional again I will release my funds back into the economy.

I have stayed home/stayed away to “flatten the curve”. Gone out only to get groceries and few needed things. I have visited family only a few times.

Things got better. I think we are doing great…

Now they say that’s not good enough. Curve flattened.. cases going down daily.. Not good enough. Now you need a mask too.

By-Law to be put in place only July 15th. For how long? 1 month? 2 Months? 3 Months? 6 Months?

Restaurants and businesses in Ottawa are wailing about sales being down. This won’t help.

If I need to wear a mask with 54 cases in a city of 1,000,000 it must not be safe. So I will keep my self safe and my money safe as well and not spend anything except necessitates.

#111 Walter Safety on 07.06.20 at 11:16 pm

Never been a theme here but if people want a good rate of return they can just pay down debt or their kids debt.
It has to happen regardless ,we are in a balance sheet recession.
And it’s what people do when their frightened.

#112 Faron on 07.06.20 at 11:19 pm

#97 Dave on 07.06.20 at 9:52 pm

“The S&P 500 is likely do a ‘Golden Cross’ on Wednesday…a mega big deal for bulls. $$$$”

Does anyone really believe this technical trading mumbo jumbo? Seems like lipstick on a pig or, at best, a broken clock being right twice a day. In a type II chaotic system, the more you think you know the less you actually know.

I could see some group psychology leading to relevance in RSI and running means, but I’d be surprised if there was any statistical support for any technical trading ideas. If there was, everyone would do it and then the markets would adapt and it wouldn’t work anymore.

As was indicated by Ryan, I see rangebound indexes with the odd bubble until we are certain that the increases in cases are not being followed by increases in deaths and until a treatment comes along. If you want to trade, buy dips in high quality names and sell tops. Rinse and repeat.

#113 will on 07.06.20 at 11:23 pm

“As the virus rips through red states…. etc.”

I read today the opposite. Sorry Garth, I can’t provide a link as it is behind a pay wall. But I am willing to cut and paste a couple of sentences:

“According to the published statistics, the coronavirus tends to be far more infectious, and far more lethal, in Democrat-controlled states than in Republican-controlled ones—a clear sign that the statistics are bogus, since the viruses are just strands of RNA encased in a protein membrane and, as such, do not have exhibit political affiliations. If they appear to be politically affiliated, then that is indicative of them being used for propaganda purposes.

#114 fishman on 07.06.20 at 11:39 pm

I predict everyone is going to try to have an old fashioned, camping, swimming in the lake, barbecuing,cold beer, teenage fantasy , Canadian summer. Followed by a glorious Indian Summer. Cold nights, hot days,smorgasbord of fall Canadian colours, Good fishing, so,so hunting. No bugs. It’ll be our own phony war. Like autumn of 1939. No big moves till after the American election. Canuckleheads will tremble a little. Then carry on through gritted teeth for one last quiet, loving old fashioned Christmas. No squabbling. Family melodrama rendered insignificant by the world awaiting them in the New Year. The cold cruel Canadian winter on the other side of the door. Hard times on the front porch & nobody knocked. Times up. The books will be balanced,

#115 Canuck on 07.06.20 at 11:52 pm

Trump is toast, blah, blah, blah… but the election is 4 months away and anything can happen.

Is that really your version of a lock?

#116 forgotmyusername on 07.07.20 at 12:22 am

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.20 at 9:57 pm
@#90 Drill Baby
“Ok I can see were someone would think that Trump is finished Nov 01/20.”

++++

Ummmm.
The election is Nov 4th…..
Are you telling us something before it happens?

==========
Neither date is accurate. This year the election will be Nov 3rd.

(as per Wikipedia) “It is statutorily set as ‘the Tuesday next after the first Monday in the month of November’ or ‘the first Tuesday after November 1’.[1] The earliest possible date is November 2, and the latest possible date is November 8.”

And the current term runs until who ever wins takes the oath of office on Inauguration Day, which will be January 20, 2021.

#117 Old Ron the Realtor on 07.07.20 at 12:30 am

Good article Garth.

Your work as chief zoo keeper here in the comment section is appreciated. Although, I can’t imagine reading every single repetitive, contradictory, and occasionally deranged rant.

#118 Buck Turgeson on 07.07.20 at 12:36 am

No Flop today ? Anyone know what happened to Smoking Man ?

#119 Janet Blakely on 07.07.20 at 1:14 am

DELETED

#120 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 07.07.20 at 1:41 am

Trump’s toast. — Garth

Talking about what he allegedly has for breakfast will not change the indisputable fact that President Donald J. Trump is utterly impossible to beat in the upcoming November 2020 presidential election. Taking into account all the known and unknown facts, that is clearly the only logical conclusion that a reasonable person could possibly come to.

Be warned that at a website called something like Facebunk, when everyone there had nothing better to do than blather away about what they had for breakfast, it soon degenerated into just another advertising website trying to sell stuff and nonsense to all the “useless eaters.”

#121 Howard on 07.07.20 at 3:28 am

#104 Captain Uppa on 07.06.20 at 10:07 pm
#95 Captain Uppa on 07.06.20 at 9:16 pm
Say what you want, ON real estate is hotter than lava right now.

So if the doomer prediction of a Fall free fall comes true, a TON of people are gonna be screwed.

Yeah, somehow I doubt that.

Who, exactly, predicted a free fall? – Garth

———————————————-

I thought you read and kept track of the steerage section posts?

Oh and Evan Siddall in the 18% range (high end).

—————————————–

18% down is not “free fall”. It’s a standard correction.

#122 VicPaul on 07.07.20 at 4:00 am

#85 Nonplused on 07.06.20 at 7:55 pm
#32 mnpr on 07.06.20 at 3:56 pm
#11 Penny Henny

Yeah….can’t believe that nonplussed was not #1 in total word count.

Having said that, I enjoy his thoughtful comments very much.

—————————-

I’ll take that as a complement. I have been trying to shorten it up but that takes a lot of time. And sometimes there just isn’t a way to say things without some elaboration to make sure people have the context. Or at least I’m not good at it anyway.

*********

I know what you mean. Some people have a way with words…others, no have way.

M56BC

#123 BillyBob on 07.07.20 at 5:11 am

#82 Nonplused on 07.06.20 at 7:46 pm
#11 Penny Henny on 07.06.20 at 2:17 pm

Well, there you go. The future in 730 words.-GT

That’s almost as long as one of Nonplused’s comments.

———————————

Hey… I resemble that statement. Anyway there is a scroll wheel right in the middle of your mouse.

===================================================

Stick to your guns Nonplused. There are many who enjoy detailed comments with some substance and thought put into them. I would assume that we are just quieter than the vocal minority of complainers with low IQ’s and attention spans that tend to make the most noise. It’s the same pattern everywhere. People just smart enough to be aware they’re stupid instinctively become defensive when faced with intelligence. It’s the intellectual manifestation of little man syndrome.

Setting aside that they’re publicly demonstrating they lack the mental development to handle thoughts expressed using more than three words…

…how lazy does one have to be, to want someone to desist from posting so they don’t have to strain their scrolling finger?

Wowsa.

I don’t claim some superior intellect. But if I don’t understand something I make the effort to learn. If I don’t agree with something I make the effort to form a coherent counterargument.

I don’t always succeed, but I can’t respect people too lazy to try.

#124 X RAY RAY on 07.07.20 at 5:40 am

You ain’t seen nothing yet. Even if it’s only the tsunami of cash the Feds been pouring out there’s every reason to see the next leg up being explosive. My bet, up up up, further and faster than any FOMO investor can catch. I’m buying now, getting paid to position. And as always, the TSX interlisteds will participate. Sally forth. I’m buying two fisted and building dividends income to turn into more more more.

Business Insider: ‘You’re going to get a rocket ship’: Veteran strategist Jeff Saut sees the S&P 500 breaking 4,000 in the …
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/sp-500-stocks-break-4000-12-months-strategist-jeff-saut-2020-7-1029369552

#125 Captain Uppa on 07.07.20 at 6:11 am

#123 Howard on 07.07.20 at 3:28 am
#104 Captain Uppa on 07.06.20 at 10:07 pm
#95 Captain Uppa on 07.06.20 at 9:16 pm
Say what you want, ON real estate is hotter than lava right now.

So if the doomer prediction of a Fall free fall comes true, a TON of people are gonna be screwed.

Yeah, somehow I doubt that.

Who, exactly, predicted a free fall? – Garth

———————————————-

I thought you read and kept track of the steerage section posts?

Oh and Evan Siddall in the 18% range (high end).

—————————————–

18% down is not “free fall”. It’s a standard correction.

—————————————————

I agree, but try telling that to the doom and gloom squad in the comment section.

Btw, average GTA home up almost 12% yoy. Multiple offers everywhere. Cottage country homes being sold like hot cakes. Pent up demand? Sure. But Evan Siddall is I’ll likely have to take the big loss on his prediction right out of the gate.

Fall won’t see a “correction”.

The June numbers are as predicted. Inventory down by 28% and coming out of 100 days of pandemic. If there was not a surge it would be a Depression. Nothing to see here. – Garth

#126 Stop the blather on 07.07.20 at 6:27 am

Blather: talk long-windedly without making very much sense.

Hey top 10, this was not a compliment.

#127 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.07.20 at 6:56 am

@111 Gonkman- Uh oh. Be prepared to be attacked by the irrational virtue signalers. I was. And right on! There needs to be more of us.

#128 XRay Ray on 07.07.20 at 7:09 am

Hong Kong is Dead, no matter what the China friendly media might report. You might not know the truth because Canadian media rarely reports anything that might interfere with ad revenue from China- Origin political interests.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-07/foreign-firms-give-up-hong-kong-office-space-lifting-vacancies?srnd=premium-asia

3 million people out of a 7.5 million population once- eligible to leave with passports of convieniance applied for over the years. The bulk of those applications are UK. Approx 500,000 Canadian passports have been granted to non resident dual resident Hong Kong citizens . Are those passports still valid? It’s questionable.

Big problem is that China doesn’t recognize dual citizenship. Will China let these people leave? This is why Hong Kong is being quietly hollowed out as international businesses have been steadily leaving in advance of the new China Security Legislative hammer. What business could stay under the condition that those companies employees were here held as prisoners?

“We burned the village to protect it” was a famous quote from the Vietnam era. I think it applies to Hong Kong. There is no way HK can remain an ” international financial center’.

China’s state apparatus is buying stocks and encouraging citizens to do the same. It’s a ruse. Foreign investments in China have slammed on the brakes. This is an ongoing dumpster fire. China is engaged in foot stamping diplomacy. You’d think the North Korean and Gerald Butts were advising them. Stay tuned.

#129 Steve French on 07.07.20 at 7:18 am

Who here remembers the good old days, when Smokey had Johhny Cash going on the buds, hiding bottles from his wifey in the backyard… writing his famous “novel”…

har har har….

Smoking Man teed me off sometimes with his pro-gun commentary, but otherwise he was alright…

#130 Stan Brooks on 07.07.20 at 7:47 am

#106 Capt. Serious on 07.06.20 at 10:22 pm
People are going to have to deal with going for more equities, volatility and probably lower returns compared to the long run returns equities have delivered. A lot of people will mess it up as the margin between making something above inflation and losing shrinks. Careful if you were assuming something like 7% real return for equities. Probably not happening over the next 20 years.

Considering that the real inflation (aka ‘cost of living’) is north of 7-8 %, the international equities can surely bring 7 % + yearly in the next 2 decades.

The current health situation will only exacerbate the problem with inflation, as people mostly consume without producing much.

Watch real food inflation.
Losing 60-70 % of the ‘standard of living’ through wage suppression due to automation and outsourcing, increasing real inflation and guaranteed zero rates is pretty much given.

To summarize: people will have and less money with which they will have to buy ever increasing in prices foods and necessities while heavily indebted and getting no practical return, but rather huge losses on savings.

Cheers,

#131 Dharma Bum on 07.07.20 at 8:29 am

#102 Trojan House

Why are they continuing these lockdowns?
——————————————————————–

Capital City.

The politicos would rather err on the side of caution.

They don’t give a crap about anyone but themselves.

Selfish losers, the lot of them.

#132 n1tro on 07.07.20 at 8:38 am

#114 Faron on 07.06.20 at 11:19 pm
#97 Dave on 07.06.20 at 9:52 pm

“The S&P 500 is likely do a ‘Golden Cross’ on Wednesday…a mega big deal for bulls. $$$$”

Does anyone really believe this technical trading mumbo jumbo? Seems like lipstick on a pig or, at best, a broken clock being right twice a day.
———————–
Stick to what you know and leave the “mumbo jumbo” to the rest. A lot of traders use technical indicators. They feed off each other and add it the odd news headline, drives buying and selling. The key thing to note in today’s world is that the algos are using technical indicators and twitter feeds to buy and sell. So if there is a huge resistance or support that will be broken, expect a lot of action around that price point.

#133 IHCTD9 on 07.07.20 at 8:52 am

Trudeau is an abomination to the financial well-being of every Canadian who needs a job to get by.

However, Canadians will nonetheless vote this guy in for round three.

Que sera sera… probably a destroyed economy.

#134 Penny Henny on 07.07.20 at 9:18 am

#11 Penny Henny on 07.06.20 at 2:17 pm
Well, there you go. The future in 730 words.-GT

That’s almost as long as one of Nonplused’s comments.
////////////////

Well quite the response from my simple comment.
I was labelled a hater, a person of low intellect and lazy to boot.
Yes or no, do Nonplussed’s comments tend to be very long at times? Does that observation make me a hater? dumb? lazy?
I think people read too much into things when there was nothing there to begin with.

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.20 at 9:31 am

“Third thing: where are the opposition politicians? – Garth”

++++

Silently sitting on their hands….like the media.

#136 Lambchop on 07.07.20 at 9:41 am

Third thing: where are the opposition politicians? – Garth

___________

Where indeed. I’ve been hoping you had some inside info to share with us, because it truly is baffling.

Could they be in hiding to avoid the off-chance that they inherit this financial fiasco?

#137 Howard on 07.07.20 at 9:42 am

#127 Captain Uppa on 07.07.20 at 6:11 am
#123 Howard on 07.07.20 at 3:28 am
#104 Captain Uppa on 07.06.20 at 10:07 pm
#95 Captain Uppa on 07.06.20 at 9:16 pm
Say what you want, ON real estate is hotter than lava right now.

So if the doomer prediction of a Fall free fall comes true, a TON of people are gonna be screwed.

Yeah, somehow I doubt that.

Who, exactly, predicted a free fall? – Garth

———————————————-

I thought you read and kept track of the steerage section posts?

Oh and Evan Siddall in the 18% range (high end).

—————————————–

18% down is not “free fall”. It’s a standard correction.

—————————————————

I agree, but try telling that to the doom and gloom squad in the comment section.

Btw, average GTA home up almost 12% yoy. Multiple offers everywhere. Cottage country homes being sold like hot cakes. Pent up demand? Sure. But Evan Siddall is I’ll likely have to take the big loss on his prediction right out of the gate.

Fall won’t see a “correction”.

—————————————–

You used Siddall’s modest 9-18% correction call as an example of someone predicting free fall.

So which is it? Is 18% a freefall or isn’t it?

There seems to have been a significant rotation out of condos and into detached homes, driving the average price up. Low inventory adding fuel to the fire. Now that interest rates are at zero, what else will the government do to prop up this market? Extend the mortgage holiday (the government can certainly banks to extend it)? Use taxpayer funds to start paying people’s mortgages for them? But do you really want to live in a country where deadbeats are continually bailed out at the expense of the prudent?

#138 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 07.07.20 at 10:01 am

#81 baloney Sandwitch on 07.06.20 at 7:42 pm
The real bargains are in commodities.
—————————————————————-
Commodity prices spend a lot of time going down or sideways. They are not due to start rising until 2030 according to the 30 year cycle. The top will be in 2040.

#139 Idealistic Realist on 07.07.20 at 10:04 am

#111 Gonkman on 07.06.20 at 11:03 pm

I’ve also opted out until this current phase of ‘reality’ passes. I’m equally afraid of people as I am of the virus. Such a fearful society. No thank you.

I recommend meal kit delivery services. Received my first delivery yesterday. A delicious meal without the threat of all the threats (virus, liberals, etc.)

See you on the other side!

#140 Sail Away on 07.07.20 at 10:22 am

Wow, Ivanka looks good dressed cowgirl! I didn’t read the words, but assume the article was favourable.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanityfair.com/style/2020/07/ivanka-trump-fourth-of-july-outfits/amp

#141 ain't life rand on 07.07.20 at 10:25 am

@#111 Gonkman on 07.06.20 at 11:03 pm
#102 Trojan House on 07.06.20 at 10:02 pm

******************************************

Stop talking sense. I live in Ottawa. As of tomorrow I refuse to spend another $ in any store except for groceries to keep my family fed.

When they stop the nonsense of mask wearing or make it optional again I will release my funds back into the economy.

I have stayed home/stayed away to “flatten the curve”. Gone out only to get groceries and few needed things. I have visited family only a few times.

Things got better. I think we are doing great…

Now they say that’s not good enough. Curve flattened.. cases going down daily.. Not good enough. Now you need a mask too.

By-Law to be put in place only July 15th. For how long? 1 month? 2 Months? 3 Months? 6 Months?

Restaurants and businesses in Ottawa are wailing about sales being down. This won’t help.

If I need to wear a mask with 54 cases in a city of 1,000,000 it must not be safe. So I will keep my self safe and my money safe as well and not spend anything except necessitates.
———–

boohoo

#142 RyYYZ on 07.07.20 at 10:28 am

Frequent reader, occasional poster here.

I say keep the comments, though if you decided to ditch them just because of the work involved in moderating them, I’d understand.

Over the years I’ve gotten some links to some really good information here. Recently, a couple of links to some really informative pages about COVID. Well-written factual stuff done by experts.

#143 Trojan House on 07.07.20 at 10:39 am

“Third thing: where are the opposition politicians? – Garth”

Obviously hiding in their basements wearing a mask.

#144 looking up on 07.07.20 at 10:42 am

Stop talking sense. I live in Ottawa. As of tomorrow I refuse to spend another $ in any store except for groceries to keep my family fed.

When they stop the nonsense of mask wearing or make it optional again I will release my funds back into the economy.

I have stayed home/stayed away to “flatten the curve”. Gone out only to get groceries and few needed things. I have visited family only a few times.

Things got better. I think we are doing great…

Now they say that’s not good enough. Curve flattened.. cases going down daily.. Not good enough. Now you need a mask too.

By-Law to be put in place only July 15th. For how long? 1 month? 2 Months? 3 Months? 6 Months?

Restaurants and businesses in Ottawa are wailing about sales being down. This won’t help.

If I need to wear a mask with 54 cases in a city of 1,000,000 it must not be safe. So I will keep my self safe and my money safe as well and not spend anything except necessitates.

————————

Look at what’s happening in the US because of hillbillies exercising their “constitutional right” not to wear a mask.

Just wear the Damn mask. Big deal….

#145 Job#1 on 07.07.20 at 10:45 am

#102 Trojan House, #111 Gonkman

Reductio ad Absurdum…

I thought I had plumbed the depths of local idiocy when barber shops opened coupla weeks ago. Went to 1 of 2 barbershops; sign sez mask must be worn, no beard/moustache trim, no shave etc. With my luxuriant locks of over 3 months growth, I couldn’t imagine how this would work with my mask on. Needless to say, I went to the other one where no such nonsense was required.

Yesterday I heard a radio interview with an Ottawa restaurateur. He was describing trying to formulate policy regarding problem diners refusing to don masks. This to me is truly absurd. How the #$LL does one eat/drink with a mask? As Scrooge famously said: “…I’ll retire to Bedlam.”

My vote re comments section; as long as comments comply with Garth’s stated guidelines, let ‘er rip. I will always choose freedom, abhor censorship. Besides, I like to know what my fellow inmates are thinking.

#146 MF on 07.07.20 at 10:58 am

1 Gonkman on 07.06.20 at 11:03

I can’t stand the mask but I wear it. We know it reduces the spread if two people have masks on sure, but what it also does it seems to calm people down.

We need the economy up and running and people feeling comfortable going out.

Just grin and bear it like the rest of us so we can keep this return to some normalcy going.

MF

#147 IHCTD9 on 07.07.20 at 11:09 am

#143 Sail Away on 07.07.20 at 10:22 am
Wow, Ivanka looks good dressed cowgirl! I didn’t read the words, but assume the article was favourable.
— –

She’s definitely easy on the eyes – no matter what she’s dressed up as!

I too assumed the article must be filled with glowing praise for the Tump family – without having read it…

#148 BillyBob on 07.07.20 at 11:22 am

#137 Penny Henny on 07.07.20 at 9:18 am
#11 Penny Henny on 07.06.20 at 2:17 pm
Well, there you go. The future in 730 words.-GT

That’s almost as long as one of Nonplused’s comments.
////////////////

Well quite the response from my simple comment.
I was labelled a hater, a person of low intellect and lazy to boot.
Yes or no, do Nonplussed’s comments tend to be very long at times? Does that observation make me a hater? dumb? lazy?
I think people read too much into things when there was nothing there to begin with.

================================================

As I said, defensive.

Kind of telling considering my comments were addressing a certain mentality, not you personally.

#149 Lee on 07.07.20 at 11:28 am

I wish people (not necessarily on this blog) would stop saying they are not watching the NFL this year as a personal protest against whatever. The second they kick the ball off for the first game, everyone will be watching. 142 million people watched the Super Bowl last year. I don’t think the NFL could care less if 10 Million suckers choose not to watch. What, Mahomes will have to take a 7% pay cut? (As an aside, can they afford receivers in KC now?)

#150 Flop... on 07.07.20 at 11:39 am

Was in a summer slumber, when I was awoken by Garth Turner poking me with a stick.

Haven’t even posted a comment in July yet, and am getting roasted for goings on in June.

I guess it’s cause I’m on an iPad, I’ve never clicked the link to the comments, it’s always just been there.

This blog helps me feel more connected to my adopted country.

If 65 comments a month is too much, what is a reasonable number?

I just write them and hit submit, what happens after that is someone else’s problem.

I enjoy the amount of content on this blog, it’s one of the best things about it, it’s constantly churning out new stuff.

I try to add to this content, as a way of contributing and giving back.

Sounds like I got it wrong…

M46BC

#151 IHCTD9 on 07.07.20 at 11:49 am

#142 Idealistic Realist on 07.07.20 at 10:04 am
#111 Gonkman on 07.06.20 at 11:03 pm

I’ve also opted out until this current phase of ‘reality’ passes. I’m equally afraid of people as I am of the virus. Such a fearful society. No thank you.

I recommend meal kit delivery services. Received my first delivery yesterday. A delicious meal without the threat of all the threats (virus, liberals, etc.)

See you on the other side!
——-

Welcome to the other side! I’ve been here since October 19, 2015 when our snowboarding ex-bouncer PM received a majority mandate from my fellow near sighted Canucks.

Not much I could do since, other than letting above said Canucks foot the bill through tax avoidance. And what a monstrous bill it has turned out to be! Way worse than I could ever have imagined. Glad to not be of service to that one. I’m afraid I won’t be supporting this kind of government.

Might as well make keeping your cash a permanent thing. He’s just going to give it away to a foreign country for some SJW crap anyway. Blowing it on hookers and crack would be a more productive use of your cash than what Trudeau will utilize it for.

#152 TurnerNation on 07.07.20 at 12:19 pm

You see people in this comment section already advocating and accepting the end of personal rights. Wear a mask ..or else. The delusion continues. Everyone is totally healthy, but for the social control.
Next up: wear a tracking bracelet or phone tracking.
Just do it. If you don’t then see USA etc etc.
Always their give us a straw man to point at – obey, or else you’ll get sick!
Even my Mom stopped believing the #s out of the US. An election year after all, or maybe the first year without one.
…….

What will this fall bring? It’s all right here on the web. No secret just look.
Once we lose our rights we never get tham back in the same way.
Our global elites rulers have a plan and here it is. Tracked like cattle.
You see, we are all unsafe. The world is not safe. Only more corporate and government control can make us safe again!
Your local city and town is like a war zone, playgrounds are taped off like minefields. Stores with big STOP signs on them.
If you simply submit to all of this you will become safe again

From FD.TO public news release

“In a recent announcement dated on July 2, 2020, the Ministry of Labour, Training and Skills Development identified that TraceSCAN can play an instrumental role in increasing the reach of the “COVID Alert” and especially valuable for Ontario-wide workplaces, including workers at sporting venues, corporate offices, healthcare and long-term care facilities and any public outdoor sites.

With the availability of TraceSCAN wearables next week, contact tracing will be made possible without smartphones among at-risk demographics, such as senior citizens, children, and low-income individuals. Wearables also are a viable alternative to contact tracing applications for workplaces with restricted mobile usage, such as construction workers, healthcare professionals, farmers and other industry professionals.

The wearable technology will be used for a pilot project taking place on a construction site made available to all workers. Facedrive Health will provide support in deploying the contact tracing solution, training staff and closely monitoring to ensure a successful adoption. The learnings from this pilot project will inform TraceSCAN’s deployment strategy across other various sectors.”

—- Globally we have this – look they have a mark:

https://id2020.org/

While the move to digital ID has had many positive effects, it has been accompanied by countless challenges and setbacks, including large-scale data breaches affecting millions of people. Most of the current tools are archaic, insecure, lack appropriate privacy protections and commoditize our data. But that’s about to change and ID2020 is leading the charge.

Steering the market towards good digital ID solutions through our Certification Mark.
Learn More

—Big corps on board:

https://id2020.org/alliance

#153 JB on 07.07.20 at 12:24 pm

#131 Steve French on 07.07.20 at 7:18 am

Who here remembers the good old days, when Smokey had Johhny Cash going on the buds, hiding bottles from his wifey in the backyard… writing his famous “novel”…

har har har….

Smoking Man teed me off sometimes with his pro-gun commentary, but otherwise he was alright…
……………………………………………………………………
Appeared to be a mellow sort of guy but his Pro-Trump and America policies were just insane. The kind of guy to have a beer with but never discuss Trump, Democrats, Hillery or Roger Waters. I didn’t even know who Roger Waters was until I heard heard his diss about him. :)

#154 Mattl on 07.07.20 at 12:32 pm

#103 Don on 07.06.20 at 10:04 pm
Kelowna waterfront house prices saw 9 sales in June, the same as 2017. The only difference is that prices are down 18%.

————————————————————-

The sample size on WF is way to small, and the price ranges (1.2MM – 20MM) way to broad to draw any conclusions from a single month.

Acreage with home is a much bigger sample and it shows a 26% increase YOY on median price. These were way under priced for years … a nice home just sold in 5 days, 1acre, great waterview, 50 yards to the beach for under 900K.

And overall SFH in Kelowa numbers are very strong and match my observations (everything properly priced in my area has sold in the past 30 days). Sales were actually up June YOY and prices are also ahead YOY.

#155 Sail Away on 07.07.20 at 12:35 pm

#149 MF on 07.07.20 at 10:58 am

I can’t stand the mask but I wear it.

…it seems to calm people down.

—————

Similar to a blanket over a parrot.

Cracker anyone?

#156 Flop... on 07.07.20 at 12:46 pm

Here goes blather number two.

So much moaning on here, so little time…

M46BC

“Charted: U.S. Unemployment Rates Over Time.

To say the coronavirus has taken a toll on the U.S. economy would be an understatement. At the end of 2019, the U.S. experienced the lowest unemployment levels in 50 years. But since COVID-19 swept the nation in mid-March, more than 47 million Americans have filed for unemployment and the country has entered a recession. How do today’s numbers compare to other major periods of unemployment? Our new visualization illustrates how unemployment rates have changed over time in relation to major events.

*The highest unemployment rate was 24.9% in 1933, during the Great Depression.

*The lowest unemployment rate was 1.2% in 1944.

*The most dramatic change in unemployment occurred between March 2020 and April 2020, representing a 10.3 percentage point increase at the outset of the COVID-19 outbreak.

According to the Federal Reserve, the “natural rate of unemployment” (which accounts for the frictional, structural, and surplus unemployment that occurs in a healthy economy) is estimated to be between 3.5% – 4.5%. There will always be some unemployment because people are in-between jobs, or they are upskilling for new jobs because their old jobs are obsolete. However, the graph shows several noticeable periods when unemployment rates were much higher than the natural rate of unemployment. Not surprisingly, unemployment rates experienced a spike during depressions, recessions, and other major economic events such as the OPEC oil embargo in 1973, the Dotcom bubble in 2000, and most recently, the coronavirus outbreak in 2020.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/timeline-united-states-unemployment-history

#157 n1tro on 07.07.20 at 12:49 pm

https://imgur.com/a/IbWq4y2

Not sure the source of the chart so take it with a grain of salt. I bet there is a strong correlation between the politicians (and their ages) which drives a lot of the current policies meant for save “all of us”.

#158 cmj on 07.07.20 at 1:21 pm

I appreciate each of Garth’s post. It gives a good perspective for what is happening nationally & globally. The comments are diverse and this adds to the content, more food for thought.
What I don’t appreciate are bloggers who attack others and not address the issues. Often it is not backed up with source. It’s a rant!
I just skip certain people’s comments. My choice, but Garth has to read each one to decide whether it’s posted or deleted.
I think all bloggers value the Greater Fool blog. Be constructive with your comments so it will be here for us and others in the future. Where else can we get these insights and then an opportunity to respond?

#159 Faron on 07.07.20 at 1:23 pm

#135 n1tro on 07.07.20 at 8:38 am

#114 Faron on 07.06.20 at 11:19 pm
#97 Dave on 07.06.20 at 9:52 pm

“The S&P 500 is likely do a ‘Golden Cross’ on Wednesday…a mega big deal for bulls. $$$$”

People were a little worked up about the so-called “death cross” back at the end of March. What did markets do? Rally 40%. Given the market’s overall bias for moving upward with 54% upward days vs 46% down (due to economic expansion, improved efficiency, higher tolerance for large PE etc.) the golden cross probably will be followed by net gains, but correlation != causation.

#160 Faron on 07.07.20 at 1:28 pm

I’ll add that until proven otherwise, I hypothesize that technical trading advice is the snake oil (“I’ve got a system maaaannnn”) that makes dodgy financial advisors, authors and hucksters rich off of book sales and membership fees. I bet the ones that have made money are good at business and probably invest in their retirement dollars in a BDP.

See also DDTG Global. Stonks always go up is the null hypothesis (and maybe better overall than any other system because over the long run a diverse portfolio does always go up).

Learn about technical and fundamental analysis before further embarrassing yourself. One deals with economics and the other human nature. Together these forces move markets. – Garth

#161 MF on 07.07.20 at 1:52 pm

158 Sail Away on 07.07.20 at 12:35

More like a ninja

;)

MF

#162 MF on 07.07.20 at 1:59 pm

#160 n1tro on 07.07.20 at 12:49

Mentioned that many times already.

Remember all that talk about the greying of the population and the effects it would have? Well this is one of them.

Huge swaths of our population are baby boomers who feel vulnerable (and they are).

They are wealthy and powerful.

The people mindlessly droning on about elites and all kinds of other trash conveniently ignore this fact.

MF

#163 billinbc on 07.07.20 at 2:01 pm

#163 Faron
I’ll add that until proven otherwise, I hypothesize that technical trading advice is the snake oil (“I’ve got a system maaaannnn”) that makes dodgy financial advisors, authors and hucksters rich off of book sales and membership fees. I bet the ones that have made money are good at business and probably invest in their retirement dollars in a BDP.

See also DDTG Global. Stonks always go up is the null hypothesis (and maybe better overall than any other system because over the long run a diverse portfolio does always go up).

Learn about technical and fundamental analysis before further embarrassing yourself. One deals with economics and the other human nature. Together these forces move markets. – Garth
——————————————————————
It will also help if our exalted leader did not toss off little zingers like “before further embarrassing yourself”. These are totally uncalled for and subtly provide licence to other posters to snap back at fellow posters.

Actually this statement: “technical trading advice is the snake oil that makes dodgy financial advisors, authors and hucksters rich off of book sales and membership fees,” should heave earned him a heftier rebuke. I was thinking of covering him in Skippy and unleashing Bandit. – Garth

#164 Stone on 07.07.20 at 2:07 pm

#164 MF on 07.07.20 at 1:52 pm
158 Sail Away on 07.07.20 at 12:35

More like a ninja

;)

MF

———

Definitely a ninja.

#165 zee on 07.07.20 at 2:07 pm

Hi Garth

Help us understand the GTA record housing month in the pandemic with so much uncertainty.

it makes no sense

Granted that rates are low but how people getting pass the stress test in place. And if going to B lender, where rates are 5%, how can afford it.

None of this makes any sense!

#166 Sail Away on 07.07.20 at 2:15 pm

“Learn about technical and fundamental analysis before further embarrassing yourself. One deals with economics and the other human nature. Together these forces move markets. – Garth”

———–

If only acting on technical analysis didn’t feel so… sleazy.

That said, I do occasionally fleece the marks when emotions are running high. Especially fear.

Opportunists gonna opportune. A long hot shower afterward helps. Well, that and looking over the ocean from the deck.

#167 Stone on 07.07.20 at 2:23 pm

How nice. Regions in the GTHA are falling in line making wearing a mask/face covering mandatory if you enter a store or office building. Should be in place for all the regions within the GTHA by next week or so.

I’m really happy with that. Finally, common sense prevails.

For those who don’t want to wear a mask, I’ll wave to you through the window from inside the store. Looking forward to catching one of you losers on camera when you decide to have a fit. It’ll be so easy to identify you because…you won’t be wearing a mask.

Hey all you Karen’s, feeling triggered yet?

#168 The Woosh on 07.07.20 at 2:43 pm

Third thing: where are the opposition politicians? – Garth

——————————————————————

Agreed. Where are those useless meatbags? Time for a new political party that’s fiscally responsible with our money.

#169 Stealth on 07.07.20 at 2:46 pm

I thought that All Comments Mattered and not just comments from the top 10 contributors.

For example will this comment matter?

#170 The Woosh on 07.07.20 at 2:52 pm

#168 zee

Help us understand the GTA record housing month in the pandemic with so much uncertainty.

it makes no sense

Granted that rates are low but how people getting pass the stress test in place. And if going to B lender, where rates are 5%, how can afford it.

None of this makes any sense!

———————————————-

They’re going to the Big 5 banks and getting approved stress test or not. I was approved for an enormous amount that was way beyond what I would normally be approved for. It’s like they’re so desperate for business that they’re ignoring the stress test. I know how to calculate a TDSR and I can confirm that this was the case. And the rate I was locked-in for was just over 2%. Craziness everywhere!!!

#171 Faron on 07.07.20 at 2:55 pm

#166 billinbc on 07.07.20 at 2:01 pm
#163 Faron

” I was thinking of covering him in Skippy and unleashing Bandit. – Garth”

That just sounds gross. Plus, that’s a long trip for you and Bandit to make.

I’m challenging people here, so instead of a rebuke, how about some education and statistics to prove me wrong? I’m open minded to data.

First off, of course do fundamental analysis. That’s what I’m arguing for. Identify strong corps/sectors based on fundamentals and look for bargains. I obviously wasn’t clear in my inflammatory rant above. I’m also not saying that the work that you, Garth, and your team do falls in this category. You clearly do good for your clients and almost everyone, myself included, could use your services.

Here’s where I’m coming from. What I’ve read is that very few professional, active managers beat the indexes. That’s why hedge funds are falling out of vogue (or were until revently). In fact, the majority don’t. Again, that’s what I’ve read. I then go look at whatever financial web site google points me toward and I am flooded with ads where experts claim to do such and such and in only ten easy payments of $99.99. Sure, you can get lucky and win big and be among the minority, but technical trading sounds like garbage. It sounds like humans applying their faulty pattern recognizing brains in search of relationships that just don’t exist.

I’ll give you that the markets are partly driven by human psychology and as such, there are consistent elements gleanable by understanding herd mentality such as markets being oversold etc.

Finally, if it were possible to beat the market consistently through technical trading, as soon as such patterns/relationships were identified the market would respond and make the method worthless. If that weren’t the cast, then the market wouldn’t work.

Technical analysis is not for beating the market through alpha-drenched stock picks (as with fundamental analysis), but rather for understanding market sentiment, which comes from investor actions (volume, breadth etc.). Totally different animals. – Garth

#172 BlogDog123 on 07.07.20 at 2:59 pm

re:
Third thing: where are the opposition politicians? – Garth

1. Scheer too busy pulling knives out of his back, so he’s busy…
2. Other opp parties just want to have a summer break.
3. Jagmeet Singh once again proves he’s got actual marbles rattling around in his empty cranium if he thinks his ‘dealmaking’ with Trudeau will win him votes/favours/whatever..

#173 Gravy Train on 07.07.20 at 3:29 pm

#9 CEF on 07.06.20 at 1:55 pm
“I used to be #1…. The King is dead. Long live King Sail Away.” I guess that makes Sail Away the new king of blather. You’ve been dethroned, CEF. Tough break and better luck next time, old bean. :P

#174 Don Guillermo on 07.07.20 at 3:33 pm

#175 BlogDog123 on 07.07.20 at 2:59 pm
re:
Third thing: where are the opposition politicians? – Garth

1. Scheer too busy pulling knives out of his back, so he’s busy…
2. Other opp parties just want to have a summer break.
3. Jagmeet Singh once again proves he’s got actual marbles rattling around in his empty cranium if he thinks his ‘dealmaking’ with Trudeau will win him votes/favours/whatever..

*****************************************
Couple that with Main State Media diminishing or ignoring almost everything that doesn’t align with Liberal narratives.

#175 Gonkman on 07.07.20 at 3:39 pm

#149 MF on 07.07.20 at 10:58 am
We need the economy up and running and people feeling comfortable going out.

Just grin and bear it like the rest of us so we can keep this return to some normalcy going.

MF

*****************************************

If you need a mask to “feel” comfortable go for it. It is anything but comfortable.

I haven’t been to a restaurant in 4 months. I won’t be going anytime soon. Even take out.

One thing you learn or should learn being in lockdown is how to cook. I can make food that is 10X better than almost all the garbage coming out restaurants and I control the ingredients.

Charcoal + Meat + Skill = Excellence.

Besides it obviously is not SAFE if we need to wear masks right? Better to not risk it. I will just stay home and keep my money.

Besides they are already grabbing their powers for a year now it looks like..

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-july-7-emergency-orders-1.5640163

I won’t be giving any sales tax to this Gov. Luckily food is still tax free for now..

#176 Faron on 07.07.20 at 3:49 pm

“Technical analysis is not for beating the market through alpha-drenched stock picks (as with fundamental analysis), but rather for understanding market sentiment, which comes from investor actions (volume, breadth etc.). Totally different animals. – Garth”

Thanks and noted. Enough blather from me. Thanks for your time Garth.

#177 BlogDog123 on 07.07.20 at 4:03 pm

re:
#177 Don Guillermo on 07.07.20 at 3:33 pm

The media knows who’s paying their bills… And the CBC are the biggest Liberal Elite cheerleaders as they don’t want their funding cut…

Trud’oh and his nice hair have the electorate under a spell. Who cares about those pesky ethics violations unless it’s Scheer’s team doing it, then crucify him.

#178 Thesecondcomingofjohngalt on 07.07.20 at 5:24 pm

I always found Flop’s comments/input to be the most informative, as it appears he goes to great lengths to collect/research data mainly focusing on the real estate market in Vancouver. One of the main reasons I read this blog pretty much every morning is to sift through the comment section to find thought provoking information that directly impacts our daily lives, keep up the good work Garth.

#179 Terry Wolf on 07.08.20 at 12:35 pm

This is surreal. Who is “WE”?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcasDQeWoAA1RDO?format=jpg&name=900×900