Are you ready?

  By Guest Blogger Sinan Terzioglu

.

A recent bank poll found a third of Canadians, 45-54, have no retirement savings. About 20% have under $50,000.  On average Canadians have saved around $200,000, but most estimate they’ll need $750,000 to fund a comfortable retirement.  Depending on lifestyle and years of retirement to fund, $750,000 may not be nearly enough.  As life spans increase, more and more Canadians will be living their later years with health conditions, continual inflation, and personal debt that continues to build.  They’re heading towards a retirement crisis. Are you?

Everyone’s goals and circumstances are different, so retirement planning is not a one-size-fits-all scenario.  The same bank poll found more than half of Canadians didn’t know if they’d have enough savings for retirement. This is a huge risk we’re not taking seriously enough.

Most have no employer pension plan to force savings, so they must create and consistently contribute to their own pension-like portfolio. This should begin with setting aside (ideally through automatic direct deposits) at least 10-15% of income into tax advantaged accounts like RRSPs and TFSAs. When those are full, funds should be directed towards non-registered accounts.  While these accounts don’t have initial tax advantages they can form an important part of your retirement income plan.  Withdrawing from non-registered accounts first allows the funds in tax deferred RRSPs to continue to grow, pushing out the tax burden.  It also maximizes the tax advantage of TFSAs.

Many believe real estate is the only retirement plan required.  Housing in many Canadian markets has done very well over the last 30+ years, leading to believe that will continue.  But this ignores valuation and personal/family balance sheet risks which could be financially very destructive.  Only a generation ago, housing costs were recommended to be no more than three times your income. In Toronto today, a house costs over 10 times the average family after-tax income.  In fact, Canada has the highest median home price to median income ratio in the world.

I recently had a discussion with a couple in their mid-30s about their retirement goals.  They were thinking of purchasing a house, and planned for this to be a large part of their retirement savings.  They were trying to identify an upper price range that would allow them to be comfortable day to day, and still allow saving for retirement.  They have a young child with another on the way so they would like more space and a yard.

Their net worth is $500,000 with $250,000 in RRSPs, $25,000 in TFSAs and the rest in cash ready for a down payment.  Their jobs are stable but they don’t expect significant income growth throughout their careers. They collectively earn $200,000 and have no employer pension plans. Houses in their desired area are in the $1,000,000 to $1,250,000 with rents of similar properties at $3,000-$4,000 a month.  Taking an investor view, this would work out to a cap rate of 3-4%, barely ahead of inflation and significantly lower than historic real estate returns.

This couple’s parents had bought homes 30 years ago for $300,000 which are now valued around $1,300,000.  This works out to a compound annual return of 5%.  They, like many, have come to believe these historical returns are an expected outcome of real estate ownership.  Property has risen traditionally by the rate of inflation, which in North America has been 2-3% over the last number of decades.  I explained it is very unlikely residential real estate would again outpace inflation by such a wide margin. If values were to stagnate or contract that would result in significant lost opportunity costs for their family.

Assuming they paid $1,000,000 and put down 20%, amortized over 25 years at 2.65% their monthly payment would be $3,650.  Add to that property taxes, insurance, maintenance and the monthly outlay reaches $4,500-$5,000 plus the significant land transfer tax they would have to pay.  While their after-tax income would comfortably cover monthly costs they’d be taking on a significant financial risk.  First, because the valuation is so high there’s little margin of safety.  If real estate prices contract by 10-20% (very possible) the value of the property would drop by $200,000, wiping out their equity and cutting their net worth by half.  If they continue renting, invest the $200,000 plus the additional savings from lower rental costs and achieved a 6% annual rate of return this would grow to between $400,000 and $500,000 in 10 years.

After much discussion about their lifestyle, comfort and retirement goals, my advice for this couple was to hold off on the purchase, or consider less expensive options.  We spoke about more affordable areas where they might find the space and yard at a price that was manageable for them.  This is becoming increasingly possible with remote work options today.  If they decided they must be in their desired area, we discussed renting for 5-10 additional years to build up their net worth before purchasing.  By delaying an expensive housing purchase they would be able to prioritize early retirement contributions, giving the funds more time to grow over their working years instead of trying to play catch-up closer to retirement.  By building up their assets first they would have more flexibility, lower financial risks and importantly for them, less stress and worry when buying later.  It would also allow them to comfortably fund their children’s educational savings early on.

When thinking about your long term retirement goals, first understand what you will require on an after-tax basis, indexed to 3% inflation.  Work backwards to develop a savings plan allowing those goals to become a reality.  Understanding retirement cash flow requirements will make prioritizing savings much easier.  As Garth says, you can always rent a roof over your head but you cannot rent cash flow.  Ensure you are always on track to build up enough liquid assets so that your money works for you so one day you no longer need to work for money.

When you have enough in liquid financial assets that consistently produces monthly cash flow to cover fixed and variable expenses you’ll have achieved financial independence.  This will give freedom and choices.  The pandemic has proven just how important financial risk management is.  There is no such thing as job security now.  Costs will continue to rise. Financial savings should be your number one priority.  After that, if you can afford to purchase real estate, go for it. But never, ever make the mistake of thinking it is the only retirement plan you need.

Sinan Terzioglu, CFA, CIM, is a financial advisor with Turner Investments, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.   

 

92 comments ↓

#1 KNOW IT ALL on 07.05.20 at 10:33 am

It’s the Real Estate mindset in CANADA that thwarts your ideology on renting vs. saving.

First issue – it’s just not socially acceptable in Canada for grown adults with good paying jobs to be RENTING.

Second issue – Not many people have the intestinal fortitude to save money.

Answer – Buy a house no matter the cost, you look COOL and you are forced to save by making mortgage payments.

IT’S THE CULTURE THAT MUST CHANGE – IT ALWAYS IS.

#2 Keyboard Smasher on 07.05.20 at 11:04 am

“As life spans increase”

Well, luckily, life expectancy has been going down in North America once again thanks to over-consumption of highly engineered and processed products of the US food industry.

Given the option of dying early due to obesity and various cardio-vascular complications, OR eating better quality, less processed food in moderation, most people will knowingly accelerate their demise.

This is why libertarian ideology fails badly and why society flirts with authoritarianism every few decades: most humans are in fact worthless slaves.

#3 Suburban Bob on 07.05.20 at 11:11 am

As life spans increase, more and more Canadians will be living their later years with health conditions, continual inflation, and personal debt that continues to build.

_________

No prob, Sinan!

I’m in quarantine at home eating lots of chocolate and chips and drinking two cases of beer weekly plus some other faves. Too dangerous to go out to exercise or see the doc.

My life span is actually shrinking, so I won’t be running out of money any time soon.

Anyone else with me?

#4 Dr V on 07.05.20 at 11:14 am

Is $750k enough? Well, depending on your preferred
retirement lifestyle, your savings will never feel like
enough, Unless you love your job so much you keep
working. Which isn’t retirement anyways.

Retirement is calling me, constantly now. Get out while I still have my health and wits because it can all go in an instant.

The pandemic has been good training as it has showed us how cheaply we can live if we have to.

In the meantime living quietly among the masses…..

#5 Sail Away on 07.05.20 at 11:17 am

Check this out. Good analysis of a perfect case study on the roadmap to full Lord of the Flies anarchy.

Did anyone honestly and truly expect anything different? If you happen to be one of those people who felt this bold experiment would succeed, you should embrace this as a learning experience. Use similar prudence investing and you’ll do better

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/05/us/chop-seattle-police-protesters-public-safety/index.html

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.20 at 11:18 am

Interesting article Sinan and a great reminder to blog dogs to keep putting money aside for a rainy day/retirement ( the same thing in the Lowerbrainland).

I’d say the 50% estimate for most 45-54 year old’s having less than 50k set aside for retirement is low.
Judging from my co-workers and friends….its probably 75%.
But some of them are leveraged to the hilt with rental/vacation ppty’s and mortgaged homes. ( one guy has two Okanagan rentals AND a house in the lower brainland ALL mortgaged and his renewals come due this Fall and early next Spring.
He wont even entertain the idea that a market correction is in the wind…..and he’s thinking of leasing/owning a 50k boat this Summer because, “we cant go anywhere”………).
Two others are 65 and still working. Zero savings, renting, but lots of vacation photos and rusting toys.

With the crazy market swings ….I’m shooting for 2 million set aside for a worry free retirement …

#7 Do we have all the facts on 07.05.20 at 11:31 am

Basing investment returns at a compounded rate of 6.0% per annum seems a bit optimistic to me.

The reason the value real estate will probably decline in spite of very low interest rates is the projected decline in disposable income as a result of higher unemployment.

Given that the North American economies are closely tied to domestic spending it seems probable to me that the profits earned by many companies could decline over the next year or two. Even if the economy fully recovers the average annual wage increases over the past 10 years were well below 4.0% per year and show little signs of improving in the near future.

A 6.0% annual return on investment at a time when inflation is well below 2.0% per annum and wage increases are well below 4.0% per annum seems out of line with historical ratios. What am I missing?

#8 REVERSE MORTGAGES AND UBI WILL SAVE CANADA! on 07.05.20 at 11:42 am

Sinan, may I just chip in with my two cents?

We’ve got this. No problems ahead. Don’t worry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6Sxv-sUYtM

#9 Sail Away on 07.05.20 at 11:42 am

Continuing with the ‘imprudent people’ theme: how many folks with kids do you know who fail to take advantage of the RESP, or, if they do use it, keep it as a savings account?

The vast vast majority of people need help with their money decisions. Don’t be one of those people, because, honestly, many wealth managers will drive you into the ground.

If you are one of those people, Garth’s group seems fairly safe. Know thyself.

#10 As all the "old" guys at work said ... on 07.05.20 at 11:51 am

Get out as soon as you can. Best advice they ever gave me. Retirement rocks if you are ready. No bling here …

#11 Damifino on 07.05.20 at 12:10 pm

Ensure you are always on track to build up enough liquid assets so that your money works for you so one day you no longer need to work for money.
——————————–

Words to live by. I did exactly that and retired at 56. I’m now 69 and haven’t looked back for a single day.

It’s also important to develop strong interests well beyond work-a-day life. There will come a time when you become quite redundant around the office. You should be in control of your finances and your future when that time arrives. And I guarantee you, it will arrive.

Make hay while the sun shines, young puppies.

#12 FreeBird on 07.05.20 at 12:18 pm

This works out to a compound annual return of 5%.
——————
Another post to pass on as needed. I think it was Garth (could be wrong) who in a TV interview (TVO?) many moons ago said houses incr in value by ~4% per yr so this is close. It stuck with me whenever the subject of houses came up. For many I’ve met who’re younger a savings plan was for DP on a house and 10 yr plan was to add hardwood or redo kitchen – so spending vs financial plan. If you mention retirement often eyes glaze over but if you show them magic of compounding interest often gets their attn. Make it fast and use a shiny screen. Kidding…sort of. Tough to take saving for when your 60+ in your 20s but so worth it. Ditto w/life insurance. Much cheaper when young and (hopefully) healthy.

#13 Shawn on 07.05.20 at 12:30 pm

We’re likely entering a decade of higher than anticipated global stock market returns similar to the Obama and Clinton eras. 15% annualized for the S&P500 is very likely. BUYden.

Real estate and bonds likely provide poor returns for the next decade.

#14 Always learning on 07.05.20 at 12:38 pm

Thank you Sinan for running through these scenarios. Very informative.

#15 Handsome Ned on 07.05.20 at 1:05 pm

When there are more grasshoppers than ants, the ants have a big problem. Grasshoppers numbers are growing and they vote.

#16 Axehead on 07.05.20 at 1:10 pm

Good article Sinan.

“The times they are a’changing,” Robert Zimmerman.

In my time (past) you could buy a house for 3.5 times your salary. Not any more. Lest you move to Saskatchewan.

#17 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.20 at 1:16 pm

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN2460J0

Reading between the lines……

CERB part deux will be the Liberal agenda moving forward…….

#18 Nottawa Housing Bust on 07.05.20 at 1:22 pm

Just to put things in perspective about how desperately people want in the market read this article.

https://torontolife.com/real-estate/a-new-baby-a-pandemic-a-personalized-letter-a-pre-emptive-bid-then-their-pre-approved-mortgage-got-pulled/

This couole both work in the resto industry and purchased a home for 1.1 million. Then the had “trouble” attaining financing. If your really think about this there is a good probability (say 30-50%) one of them will be unemployed soon since most restos are deep in the hole or closing, and that’s in prime patio season, not dead of winter.

So somehow they manage financing at a 3rd party lender and purchase home. Article mentions parental help so let’s be generous and say they placed 25% down on this home (250 k). That leaves around 750k in mortgage that may have to be covered on one income. And oh yeah they have a 5 month old.

Let this sink in. First Nat loaned these people at least half million to 750k on the possibility of job loss! Since the entire food service industry is effectively being wiped out. And the fact they have a small child (childcare anyone?).

This is where the market is at. I stand by my statement a major financial institution will fail Garth. No bailout. There is not enough money printing out there to fix this mess.

#lackofmoralhazard

#19 Ace Goodheart on 07.05.20 at 1:42 pm

Here’s what the kids are doing:

https://torontolife.com/real-estate/the-pandemic-delayed-our-home-purchase-now-were-stuck-in-our-parents-basement/

Her: 28, Health care account supervisor
Him: 29, Law Clerk

The purchase: A $924,000 home in need of renovations, purchased in an estate sale, with a $750,000 mortgage.

They figure they’ll borrow another $100,000 to do renos, so total owing will be $850,000 on a $924,000 house.

They are apparently fine with this.

Neither one of them will lose their jobs in the next 25 years. Interest rates will never go up.

I’m assuming they have no savings other than the home equity.

This is what people are doing, right now. No one seems to even consider how much money $850,000 actually is.

#20 Bartman on 07.05.20 at 2:05 pm

Hey Sail Away. What is the experiment. Please school me. Thanks

#21 FreeBird on 07.05.20 at 2:12 pm

#18 Ace Goodheart on 07.05.20 at 1:42 pm
Here’s what the kids are doing:

https://torontolife.com/real-estate/the-pandemic-delayed-our-home-purchase-now-were-stuck-in-our-parents-basement/
———————-
This says it all for me. Last line was the icing:

“We crunched the numbers and decided that with the down payment and renovations included, it would be smart to set a strict budget of $1,070,000. There was plenty of uncertainty at the beginning of the pandemic, and that number gave us some cushion in case either of us got laid off. So, we started house-hunting.”

They’ve each had their jobs since early 2019 and guessing they make good money. She might work for a large hospital (bit more secure). They still seem pretty confident money wise to take on a very large mortgage and renos – always over budget. Too many unknowns. Sounds like start of a financial house of cards esp if (oops) baby makes three but I’m older and no expert. I wish them luck and hope it’s not a very expensive lesson.

#22 Scott Cordier on 07.05.20 at 2:18 pm

Society is become a bunch of losers here in Canada especially. Canada will become a second maybe a third world country in due time.

#23 Flanneur on 07.05.20 at 2:24 pm

Great advice! I always enjoy reading financial management info that illustrates the importance of planning ahead.

Agree ‘know it all’

‘Keyboard smash’ do you really want the extend the entire populationS life span? Think about it.

#24 UmiouiuS on 07.05.20 at 2:26 pm

#5 Sail Away on 07.05.20 at 11:17 am
Check this out. Good analysis of a perfect case study on the roadmap to full ‘Lord of the Flies’ anarchy.
************************************

A sad but true reality read. Even bad leadership is better/safer than none at all. Otherwise chaos ensues and someone loses an eye.

Like most of us,
I thought the book ‘Lord of the Flies’ was fictional until seeing the movie ‘Soylent Green’ and realizing it was about “people” doing commerce in lieu of doing chaos.

#25 Looking up on 07.05.20 at 2:39 pm

Although the numbers make sense to not buy a house or buy a less expensive house and invest more in the stock market, considering what the housing market has done in the last 20 years you will have a tough time convincing People that housing isn’t the way to go.

20 years ago I bought my house and today it’s worth around 2 million. My brothers and friends did the same and their houses are all worth around that much. Whenever I bring up discussions that the stock market is also a great place to invest Or even better than housing in some ways they look at me like I have 3 heads. I’m more of a stock guy but I even sometimes wish that I had leveraged the crap out of myself and bought rental properties. 20 years ago.

It’s not surprising to me that people don’t have a lot of stock market investments because people see where the most money was made in the last 20 years ie. real estate and of course want to buy real estate. Also the fact that the stock market recently corrected gives them a further impression that housing is a safer investment than stocks. What I see now is so many people are waiting to buy if real estate dips. I’m guessing that any real estate dip will be shallow and short lived.

#26 Brian Ripley on 07.05.20 at 2:42 pm

My “real” interest rate charts are up with June data:
http://www.chpc.biz/real-interest-rates.html

I include the TSX Real Estate Index & a Household Savings Rate chart.

My AUG 2019 post “Japan Redux” suggests that: “The next part of the credit cycle (the bust) will include the return to savings as spent consumers work on repairing their balance sheets.”

As housing prices fall over long time spans, households have to make decisions about how they are going to turn the debt they acquired on the way up into equity.

There are two basic choices; get in front of the falling price curve and sell at a either a loss or gain depending on timing, or if the household has the income and positive cash flow, pay down the debt over time as a forced savings plan. The former allows for greater savings and re-investment and the latter is a suicidal prison term chained to a decaying asset.

In either case, households turn to saving and away from consumption.

#27 doomscroller on 07.05.20 at 2:45 pm

@#21 Scott Cordier on 07.05.20 at 2:18 pm
Society is become a bunch of losers here in Canada especially. Canada will become a second maybe a third world country in due time.
———————

lmao

#28 MF on 07.05.20 at 2:55 pm

Ace Goodheart on 07.05.20 at 1:42 pm

They are doing what everyone else is doing.

And they will be rewarded for their absolute recklessness and terrible decisions.

When interest rates are left at .25% for a decade this is what types of behaviour are encouraged and rewarded.

I don’t blame them.

MF

#29 MF on 07.05.20 at 2:57 pm

1 Scott Cordier on 07.05.20 at 2:18 pm

It’s systemic.

On all the american financial forums I visit these idiots are raving about their real estate purchases like it’s 2007 all over again.

MF

#30 Sail Away on 07.05.20 at 3:16 pm

#19 Bartman on 07.05.20 at 2:05 pm

Hey Sail Away. What is the experiment. Please school me. Thanks

—————

Sorry, B-man. If you can’t connect those large and well-defined dots on your own, my explanation wouldn’t help.

Sort of similar to that quote, and I paraphrase: ‘even if we spoke the same language as other animals, we wouldn’t understand each other’.

#31 earthboundmisfit on 07.05.20 at 3:23 pm

Well worth reading:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-there-will-be-no-v-shaped-recovery-but-heres-how-we-can-ensure-the/

#32 Triplenet on 07.05.20 at 3:36 pm

Please explain….

Taking an investor view, this would work out to a cap rate of 3-4%, barely ahead of inflation and significantly lower than historic real estate returns.

#33 No Pain No Gain on 07.05.20 at 3:43 pm

Don’t be a dummy – follow the money.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/hayleycuccinello/2020/03/17/billionaire-tracker-covid-19/#429054db7e69

#34 Maven Wealth on 07.05.20 at 4:03 pm

DELETED

#35 Habitt on 07.05.20 at 4:18 pm

Good read Sinan. Perhaps this blog could focus a bit more on average wage earners. Most do not have 500k equity by the time they are thirty. Most people need guidance and good advise. Especially regular working stiffs. Thank you for any consideration.

#36 mark on 07.05.20 at 5:15 pm

239 Experts With 1 Big Claim: The Coronavirus Is Airborne.

Not good news!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/239-experts-with-1-big-claim-the-coronavirus-is-airborne/ar-BB16l0RP?ocid=msedgdhp

#37 Spectacle on 07.05.20 at 5:24 pm

Great written summary !

Question :: who would purchase any form of real estate at this point in economic time!

On a more positive economic note, trudeau returned this round of $900,000,000. that he just tried to embezzel from Canada ! Just how non transparent his entitlement really is. Knows his days are numbered now.

#38 Stone on 07.05.20 at 5:28 pm

#17 Nottawa Housing Bust on 07.05.20 at 1:22 pm
Just to put things in perspective about how desperately people want in the market read this article.

https://torontolife.com/real-estate/a-new-baby-a-pandemic-a-personalized-letter-a-pre-emptive-bid-then-their-pre-approved-mortgage-got-pulled/

———

I wonder when they get separated/divorced?

#39 Sinan Terzioglu on 07.05.20 at 5:34 pm

#7 Do we have all the facts

Basing investment returns at a compounded rate of 6.0% per annum seems a bit optimistic to me.

The reason the value real estate will probably decline in spite of very low interest rates is the projected decline in disposable income as a result of higher unemployment.

Given that the North American economies are closely tied to domestic spending it seems probable to me that the profits earned by many companies could decline over the next year or two. Even if the economy fully recovers the average annual wage increases over the past 10 years were well below 4.0% per year and show little signs of improving in the near future.

A 6.0% annual return on investment at a time when inflation is well below 2.0% per annum and wage increases are well below 4.0% per annum seems out of line with historical ratios. What am I missing?

– Thanks for your comments. Consumer spending makes up approximately 2/3rd’s of the North American economy so high unemployment would certainly hurt spending and the economy. That said, it is encouraging that the last two US employment reports were much stronger than expected. Currently, most major equity markets have dividend yields of 2-4% and with growth eventually returning we believe earning a compound annual growth rate of 6% is attainable. Some markets have higher exposure to the technology sector and will earn higher rates so it is very important to be diversified and ensure you have exposure to them – Sinan

#40 Doug t on 07.05.20 at 5:42 pm

Born a slave – was told to chase dollars and forgot there was another way – died a slave – after chasing dollars till my final days

#41 Sinan Terzioglu on 07.05.20 at 5:46 pm

#17 Nottawa Housing Bust – Thank you for sharing the Toronto Life article about the young couple that purchased a house and had trouble attaining financing. As you noted, they are both working in an industry that is very challenged right now so their situation is even riskier. Buyers with FOMO have only seen real estate go up in value and don’t understand the consequences of real estate going down especially when over leveraged. After the US housing crash many learned this lesson the hard way. The debt doesn’t go away. Add to that employment loss and things can quickly spin out of control – Sinan

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.20 at 5:46 pm

@#34 Habitt
“Most do not have 500k equity by the time they are thirty.”

++++

I had zero savings by my 30th birthday. Nothing.
Living pay cheque to pay cheque.
Someone gave me the Wealthy Barber to read.
Light bulb finally went off in my head.
Sat down and was shocked at where my monthly expenses were going.
Tim’s every day. eat out every day. Beers with the guys after work, on and on and on.
Bleeding money on frivolous crap.
Brown bagged it. Brought my own coffee, etc etc etc.
I started maxing my RRSP’s, borrowed to max out on the unused RRSP’s until all my unused portion was invested.
Also invested in non registered accounts.
Had an opportunity to go in on part ownership (mortgage) on a house ( because I had built up equity in investments).

I sold my portion of the property a few years ago after 20 years and invested that money.
I Still rent.
No shame in that with the ridiculous prices out there.
I keep maxing my RRSP’s, TFSA’s non registered, and had an opportunity to buy into a private company…..
29 years later I have over 1 mil invested and I will easily retire at 65 in 5 more years with a substantial sum in the retirement fund.
The company is booming.
All that with a High School education.
It can be done. With discipline. Slow and steady.
Anyone can do it.

#43 Sinan Terzioglu on 07.05.20 at 6:03 pm

#31 Triplenet

Please explain….

Taking an investor view, this would work out to a cap rate of 3-4%, barely ahead of inflation and significantly lower than historic real estate returns.

– The cap rate for real estate is calculated as follows: net annual rental income / market value of property. It assumes there is no financing on the property so the net annual rental income would be total rent collected minus costs such as property tax, maintenance, insurance. Cap rates of 6-7%+ have historically been considered decent rates of return – Sinan

#44 TheDood on 07.05.20 at 6:05 pm

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.20 at 11:18 am
Interesting article Sinan and a great reminder to blog dogs to keep putting money aside for a rainy day/retirement ( the same thing in the Lowerbrainland).

I’d say the 50% estimate for most 45-54 year old’s having less than 50k set aside for retirement is low.
Judging from my co-workers and friends….its probably 75%.
But some of them are leveraged to the hilt with rental/vacation ppty’s and mortgaged homes. ( one guy has two Okanagan rentals AND a house in the lower brainland ALL mortgaged and his renewals come due this Fall and early next Spring.
He wont even entertain the idea that a market correction is in the wind…..and he’s thinking of leasing/owning a 50k boat this Summer because, “we cant go anywhere”………).
Two others are 65 and still working. Zero savings, renting, but lots of vacation photos and rusting toys.

With the crazy market swings ….I’m shooting for 2 million set aside for a worry free retirement …
_______________________________________________

It’s stunning, and you are probably correct in that the numbers are quite a bit higher than 50%. They’re all planning on ‘retiring on their house’. There is zero realization that a paid for house doesn’t pay income, or that it is in fact a liability. They blindly go about their daily business like the debt mountain doesn’t exist because they can sell it all tomorrow, pay off the debt and collect the profits. Just amazing.

#45 Steven Rowlandson on 07.05.20 at 6:08 pm

Adequate income and job security? No such thing! And yet they expect guys like me to spend incredible sums of money for a roof over my head and live like my parents on an income that is 60 years out of date. Some one is out of their minds and it isn’t me. This real life game of monopoly has to end.

#46 paul on 07.05.20 at 6:09 pm

Doomed,

https://globalnews.ca/news/7137013/coronavirus-fiscal-snapshot-canada

#47 CL on 07.05.20 at 6:24 pm

There will be no crisis. We are in a crisis now and I see more traffic on the roads than before this debacle. Many are new campers with trailers, quads, bikes, etc. as a start. Between trucks, trailers, and all that goes with it, there is easily over a hundred grand travelling down the highway. Add kids, gas, insurance, high campground fees etc etc etc where is the money coming from? and that is just one example. I really don’t know if people understand what is coming for the economy.

I am in AB. I have been in oil and gas for 30 years and have had a good run but my best days are behind me after this pandemic there’s no doubt. Thank God I saved. I have had an elevated role in the industry, signed all invoices and know what contractors and people are making. I made more money than they did and I always questioned how they could do it. I still do.

Nobody has learned anything and, quite frankly, nobody will. I once had my Romanian barber tell me until Canadians are standing in breadlines for a slice of bread we will never learn. That stuck with me. I believe it to be true from what I am seeing and have seen.

I just don’t see the stresses in the economy or people’s lives and I am looking all the time just for my own curiosity.

It’ll be a sad day when I have to leave my home country when socialism really takes hold. Sadly, every single country that has gone through the process said the same things without fail…”it’ll never happen here”. As both Trudeau’s have said ” Just watch me”.

#48 akashic record on 07.05.20 at 6:30 pm

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz

Hifive!

#49 Daaf on 07.05.20 at 6:41 pm

Great read today Sinan! We’re on a similar path to what you’re suggesting but it’s great to get good reminders every now and then.

#50 Tim123 on 07.05.20 at 6:41 pm

Most people in Canada have invested their whole net worth in real estate because it is so expensive. They assumed that it will keep going up and can never go down because it has not happened in a long time. I have a feeling a lot of people may see in the next couple years that real estate can go down. I kind of wonder why more people don’t invest more in the equity markets because the amounts that you can make will far exceed GICs. The S&P 500 was up 27% last year and it was not hard to beat the benchmark because alot of things were going up. I managed 45% last year across all of my equity portfolios. This year the volatility is really good for traders so it should be another great year.

#51 Idiocy on 07.05.20 at 6:45 pm

to comment # 40 crowdedelevatorfartz

key phrase in your post;

“With discipline.”

Not a lot of that about these days – fiscally speaking.

Sincere congrats on your success story !

#52 Stone on 07.05.20 at 6:46 pm

A guy like Sinan posts a blog and strangely, all the crazies disappear in the comments section. Interesting.

I definitely want more Sinan. It would be nice if he posted at least weekly going forward.

#53 Marco on 07.05.20 at 6:53 pm

I recently had a discussion with a couple in their mid-30s about their retirement goals.
Well, we should start to talk to kids. Life is what?
Preparation for retirement. Save, brownbag, do not waste your time on life. It is always somewhere else.

#54 Wrk.dover on 07.05.20 at 7:04 pm

I hope G. Turner is invested in flannel sheets and homemade quilts, it’s mighty cold on the E Coast tonight! 12 Degrees..

#55 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.05.20 at 7:26 pm

#51 Stone on 07.05.20 at 6:46 pm spurts:

“A guy like Sinan posts a blog and strangely, all the crazies disappear in the comments section. Interesting.”
———————————————————-
You posted.

#56 BillinBC on 07.05.20 at 7:37 pm

53 Wrk.drover
I hope G. Turner is invested in flannel sheets and homemade quilts, it’s mighty cold on the E Coast tonight! 12 Degrees..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Ha, can top that: was 10C in Victoria last night. The banana belt of Canada. Where’s global warming when we need it?

#57 Fran on 07.05.20 at 7:49 pm

@#54 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.05.20 at 7:26 pm
#51 Stone on 07.05.20 at 6:46 pm spurts:

“A guy like Sinan posts a blog and strangely, all the crazies disappear in the comments section. Interesting.”
———————————————————-
You posted.

pot meet kettle

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.20 at 7:53 pm

@#50 Idiocy
““With discipline.”

Not a lot of that about these days – fiscally speaking.’
++++

True enough.
And I appreciate the congrats.

I just needed the kick in the ass to do it and the Wealthy Barber was easy to read, humorous and finally ( thank god) got me to realize ….

If I didnt change my finances …. I…. was…. screwed.
I see people( friends & co workers) now in their 60’s with nothing and I just shake my head.
Sad.
Basically doomed to work at something until they die.

Some of my friends say, “Oh you’re just lucky!”
Hmmm.
Luck? I didnt see any of them standing next to me when I was called in at 2am during Christmas for a massive flood ( the elevators in the lobby opened and a waterfall greeted me….the leak was on the 16th floor….millions in damage) and I was the “go to” guy for determining ;what water to shut off, the flood damage mitigation and the endless insurance repairs….Merry Christmas…

Or yesterday when I had to run over to Victoria on the first sailing (up at 4:30am to make the 7am sailing) for 6 hours to deal with a job issue.
And then today doing a few hours of paperwork and planning for this week coming up.
Yeah “lucky”……
Nope.
People have to look long and hard in the mirror and make a decision.
Do I wanna work til I die or maybe grind out a financial plan and ……stick…. to…. it…..
It wasn’t easy.
And if it means a few sacrifices along the way……well, you’ll appreciate the retirement ….That YOU earned….. that much better.
The first ten years… 150g’s (saved and growth).
The next ten got easier ( the original 150 growing plus additional money invested and growing), and the next nine years……..even better.

ANYONE ……can…… do….. it.
Or ….
People can pray Trudeau still has money left for Universal Basic Income ( aka welfare).

Time for another beer.
:)

#59 TalkingPie on 07.05.20 at 7:57 pm

Maybe I’m just a naive Quebecois, but my house doesn’t figure into my retirement plans, other than the fact that I may not have to pay rent once it’s paid off. To me a house is like a car in that buying one means that I have it to use and don’t have to pay to rent one. Yes, I hope that the house won’t depreciate (and will hopefully appreciate a bit) unlike my cars will. It will be maintained and possibly modified to suit my and my spouse’s tastes, assuming we can pay for those modifications in cash.

A primary residence isn’t an investment; it’s a place to live. Even in places where people hope that speculation will make for magic price appreciation, where do you plan on living once you cash out? Either you’ll buy something else, which will have likewise appreciated, you’ll rent something whose lease will be commensurate with house prices, or you’ll move away. But then where do you move to? And what happens if your million dollar shack loses value?

My station in life may be humble – especially now that I’m currently unemployed – but my house isn’t a piggy bank; it’s a possession whose use I enjoy. Anything more is an unwelcome added stresser and source of risk to my life, even if it would be financially advantageous. I have no more sympathy for those who roll the dice in the real estate gambling lotto and lose than I do for those who bet it all on red.

#60 Nonplused on 07.05.20 at 8:17 pm

Sinan,

Real estate does rise at faster than inflation, but that is due to the location factor. As cities grow in size and the commute gets longer the properties closer to the core become more valuable. But if we limit the discussion to new-builds in the suburbs then I would agree prices should more closely reflect inflation.

When our parents and grandparents were buying their first homes they were buying in what was then considered the suburbs. Those communities are considered inner-city now. That is why they bought for $300,000 in 1970 and now think it is worth $1.3 million. But Matamy is building new, nicer homes in the burbs for $600,000 or so, which more closely reflects inflation. It just takes a while to get there. Sure, they are made of glue and sawdust, but as long as the water seals hold structurally they are solid, have better appliances and furnaces, and don’t need 50 years worth of cumulative maintenance. At least not out of the gate.

—————————–

It will be interesting to see what covid / the riots / work from home will do to living preferences and pricing pressure in the burbs, as Garth has mentioned several times. We could see upward pressure on the burbs and especially the 1 to 2 and even 4 acre plots just outside of town. But I don’t think it’ll be a crazy as what happened inner-city. If you take a city like Calgary for example, there is a lot of land just outside of town that is just being used for hay, (and a lot in town too), prime for subdivision. And it really isn’t that far from the core. Commutes are seldom more than an hour. And because as you move away from the core the amount of land available goes up exponentially (pie*r^2) the amount of potential lots goes up faster than the driving distance. Most of that land is already in the hands of Carma and other developers, but they stand to make a lot of money taking 140 acres they bought years ago for $350,000 and turning it into 280 city sized lots they can sell for $200,000 each. They have to pay for the roads and services but the math still works. The math isn’t quite as good for the 2-4 acre parcels just out of town, but they don’t have to put in sewer and a lot less roads and no sidewalks.

So for those fleeing the city what should you get? 1, 2, 4, or 20+acres? Well it depends what you want to do with it. You need 4 if you want horses but I personally don’t see any point in that. For the 2-3 times a year that I ride a horse I am happy to go to a dude ranch. The more land you have the more time you will spend on your garden tractor and money on arborists, so there is that to consider. I have 2 acres and the house, trees, decorative gardens, garage, shed, RV, boat, utility trailer, and septic field all fit on 1 acre (+/-). There is a whole other acre out back that all I do with it is mow and spray for thistles. The kids practice archery and fly drones. But if I wanted I could convert that arce into a SHTF garden that I think would be to big for me and the wife to manage. That’s a lot of potatoes and carrots for one family. And a lot of weeding. I’d need a rototiller and deer fencing. A lot of deer fencing. So anyway my point is for most people 2 acres is going to be more than you can utilize unless you want to get into tractor farming or horses.

#61 AACI Homedog on 07.05.20 at 8:20 pm

I some ways, my dividend yielding portfolio is like renting a cash flow. I was always self employed, & the dividends are a large part of what I am living off, now retired.

#62 MDQ on 07.05.20 at 8:24 pm

I am starting to believe that I live in an alternate reality, how do you explain this?

https://vancouversun.com/news/homebuyers-pulling-the-trigger-in-the-fraser-valley-and-beyond/wcm/0aff0241-5f7a-4df5-9bcc-b0d3cad519c6/

What goes through peoples heads when they up-bid properties in the middle of a pandemic? Why would anyone want to pay ‘more’ for a house?

I understand that interest rates went down, but are there no risk analysis at all here?

This does not make any sense to me, its like people are proud to be slaves for the next 25 years….

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.20 at 8:33 pm

@#61 MDQ
“What goes through peoples heads when they up-bid properties in the middle of a pandemic? Why would anyone want to pay ‘more’ for a house?”

++++

The short version?
They’re ignoring everything but their house lust.
Greater fools

#64 Monika Schaefer on 07.05.20 at 8:40 pm

DELETED

#65 Nonplused on 07.05.20 at 8:51 pm

#14 Handsome Ned on 07.05.20 at 1:05 pm

“When there are more grasshoppers than ants, the ants have a big problem. Grasshoppers numbers are growing and they vote.”

————————

Ya, I don’t know about that, or at least if it is different than before. The problem with all these “wealth statistics” like “the top 20% of the population has 80% of the wealth” is that they fail to take into account age.

Excepting the top 0.01% who have either inherited a fortune built by their father or founded Microsoft like Bill Gates, it is a fact of life that most people grow wealthier as they get older. Let’s follow the career path of a typical engineer (because I know something about it). He/she/they graduate from high school at 18 with nothing. Then he/she/they goes to university for between 4 and 5 years and graduates deeply in debt, but they get a job. Unfortunately the job does not pay well because they are inexperienced. They vote Liberal or NDP. But after 10 years or so on the job the student loan is paid off and they are banking some serious cash. Somewhere in there they managed to get married and buy a house so now there are 2 incomes paying off the mortgage (most of the time). Maybe they get a promotion or 2 and now they are banking some serious cash, so they start putting into RRSP’s. 25 years later the mortgage has been paid off and the house has nearly doubled in price. 10 years later the couple (assuming no divorce) has $1 million saved through saving and compound returns, plus a house with no mortgage. But they are now 65. They are solidly in the 1%. And then they inherit a stake in their parents estate. By this time they are voting conservative.

Folks, (for Flop again), we all start out naked and broke. How we end up depends on the effort put in, and some luck. But these numbers they kick around about wealth distribution are stupid if they don’t do it by age. There is a reason most of the people kicking around in A-class motorhomes and taking cruises are old, and the people living off student loans are young. The statistics, as they present them, do nothing to shine a light on a whole life.

The difference between a liberal and a conservative is a 30 year successful career.

#66 tbone on 07.05.20 at 9:30 pm

I was debt free at 29 . House was paid as we threw all our money at the mortgage . We had an open mortgage at 10 3/4 % held by the vendor .
Moved into a commissioned sales position and money started to roll in.
What was the old saying… the harder you work the luckier you get .
Invested the money in mutual funds and real estate .
Retired early and live off dividend income now .
The key is to start investing early .

#67 45north on 07.05.20 at 9:32 pm

I recently had a discussion with a couple in their mid-30s about their retirement goals.  They were thinking of purchasing a house, and planned for this to be a large part of their retirement savings.

by September, a million households will have deferred their mortgages but we haven’t seen the effects on the housing market yet.

they ( the couple ) have been given fair warning First, because the valuation is so high there’s little margin of safety.  If real estate prices contract by 10-20% the value of the property would drop by $200,000, wiping out their equity and cutting their net worth by half. 

which I think is a pretty serious risk

#68 Lalaji on 07.05.20 at 10:42 pm

“ This couple’s parents had bought homes 30 years ago for $300,000 which are now valued around $1,300,000. This works out to a compound annual return of 5%.”

– Does this factor in the fact that they lived in the house and raised a family in that house in 30 years as well- something that will be a bit hard to do inside a TFSA or RRSP or non-reg A/C

Also they could have generated an alternate stream of income from that house by possible basement rental. Now that income they could have used to either pay down fast or invest in index funds.

#69 Randy on 07.05.20 at 11:37 pm

DELETED

#70 Patrick Hat trick on 07.06.20 at 12:48 am

Sinan, does that $200,000 ‘saved’ include home equity? I assume it does seeing that a majority have million dollar mortgages. Wow, this is the new debtors prison on steroids.

$5000 a month net in after tax plus expenses to live in a house? That’s crazy !! It’s no wonder after school extra curricular programs are dying out. Who can afford such a decadence outlay like a hockey or gymnastics?

Where does the food budget come from? When I was a suburban denizen we had lots of families around us where the kids kept coming over to my house because they were hungry!! Some of these kids hadn’t eaten meat in memory. But there were two working parents and two cars in the drive. It made no sense to me. And talk about bitter, jealous envy from these people. The rat lines were burning up.

I had a drunk woman enter my house once. I hadn’t changed the locks yet. She had a set because she’d baby sat for the previous owner. I asked her why she felt like she had to break into my house and she said , I kid you not, ” I had to see your furniture”. Scary right ?

This was a long time ago, when things were only half as bad and half as expensive as they are now. I can’t imagine what those poor kids are eating, or not, now. There are some scary issues mushrooming behind closed doors in the ‘burbs. When you buy the biggest house on the block expect some kind of consequences.

We lived there for a short time, it was too weird for us. But I initially thought I was getting a great deal. I had located a hardship sale where the woman was being transferred immediately. I made an all cash offer closing that same week. $50,000 off asking. I realized later that this set off a firebomb of focused envy and greed by the neighbors who instantly hated me.

People are broke and getting ‘broker’. The credit line culture has people suffering anxieties experienced by any generation before them. I assume this might explain the dismal savings and the fact that Canada has the highest number incidents of road rage in the world. Oh, and the rat lines. People, seriously, rat lines?

#71 SoggyShorts on 07.06.20 at 1:14 am

#7 Do we have all the facts on 07.05.20 at 11:31 am
Basing investment returns at a compounded rate of 6.0% per annum seems a bit optimistic to me…….. What am I missing?
********************
It depends on what you are investing in.
I think that this pandemic will only serve to strengthen the top companies by killing Mom&Pop’s competition.
No one who promised to break up the big companies or even beat them up is running for president anymore, so
I think if anyone tries to do a new Warren Buffett Wager they’ll lose to the S&P500 over the next ten years again.

That’s what I’m betting on anyways.

#72 jane24 on 07.06.20 at 1:37 am

I am 66 and retired when I was 59. Missed that damn Freedom 55! All through my working life I was terrified by professional bank opinions that I needed millions to retire. Well you don’t. Retiring with a paid for house and paid for cars and no debt is amazingly cheap. One doesn’t need 75% of working income – what the hell would you spend on. A trip to Hawaii every month!

That is the key though, no debt. Do not enter retirement with big mortgages. Do not trade up to dream houses in your 50’s. Big houses are expensive to run. Move to areas with great life styles and cheap living when you retire. Kids will still visit if not with the new working from home concept, come with you. I know from personal experience that you can live like a king in small town Ontario, Southern Italy and Vietnam on very little.

Best thing we did was to buy a holiday home and then put it up on a holiday home swapping site. We travel the world for free staying in other folk’s holiday homes. Some of these are definitely the dream homes that we could have brought in our 50’s if we had been stupid. We use http://www.homeexchange.com

Don’t be frightened of your future just be sensible now.

#73 Wrk.dover on 07.06.20 at 6:57 am

We carry a paid for 900 sq ft house on 40 acres, twenty minutes from a small town, for a few hundred a month, according to my 39 years of record keeping in it.

Another $400/mo enhances it and other larger buildings, year in year out. It is my way of life.

Debt free full FIRE for me at 37 with nothing financial, followed by freedom 55 for wife with DBP. It was only then that we began saving money! Half of the DBP actually. All of it being saved now with air travel dicey now.

CDN paper millionaires are a bunch of lost lives not being lived. I saved a lot of time and money not working past 37 I’ll also point out here.

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.20 at 8:15 am

Gee.
I wonder what frothy mouthed invective the Chinese stat controlled media will spew forth because the US has the impertinence to sail two aircraft carrier strike forces in “their” Sea……

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-defence-nimitz/u-s-navy-carriers-conduct-south-china-sea-drills-as-chinese-ships-watch-idUSKBN2470UT

Things are heating up……

#75 Do we have all the facts on 07.06.20 at 8:21 am

#39 Sinan

Thank you for your confident comments. After the unemployment rate in the US hit 10% in 2009 it took over ten years to wrestle it back down to 3.5% in February 2020. A good portion of that decline was a result of a reduction in the employment participation rate from 66.0% in 2009 to 63.5 % in February 2020. Millions of Americans decided to drop out of the labour force resulting in a reduction in the unemployment rate without actually increasing disposable income.

It is also worth pointing out that over 50.0 % of the 4.8 million jobs created in the US in June 2020 were part time positions and that average wage levels declined by 5.66% in June 2020. It may take more than a few years to generate the same level of disposable income that existed before the Covid 19 disaster.

Historically the rate of return realized from investments always included an inflation component. It seems logical to me that a substantial decline in inflation, or the arrival of deflation, would result in a corresponding decline in the rate of return on investment.

My concern was that a combination of a smaller pool of disposable income combined with lower inflation should have an impact on the rate of return generated by investment over the next five years or so.

When the factors that generated higher rates of return on investments between 2009 and 2019 have substantially declined it seems probable that the rates of return on investment in the future will be affected.

Without an orbuculum all we can do is cross our fingers and hope for the best.

#76 Stone on 07.06.20 at 9:02 am

#57 Fran on 07.05.20 at 7:49 pm
@#54 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.05.20 at 7:26 pm
#51 Stone on 07.05.20 at 6:46 pm spurts:

“A guy like Sinan posts a blog and strangely, all the crazies disappear in the comments section. Interesting.”
———————————————————-
You posted.

pot meet kettle

———

Indeed.

#77 Dharma Bum on 07.06.20 at 9:15 am

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz

Hey Now!

Ummm…I don’t quite know how to say this but…I think you’re my brother from another mother.

The Wealthy Barber. It changed my life.
Set me on the right path a long, long time ago.

Now, I just smile and wave.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvePPARYewg

#78 Dharma Bum on 07.06.20 at 9:35 am

#66 tbone

The key is to start investing early .
——————————————————————–

When you’re young, time is on your side.

Those smart enough to take advantage of that fact will reap the benefits, financially and otherwise.

Others, well, they will just squander it.

When you’re old (i.e., “over 50”), the tables are turned.

Time is no longer on your side.

Ever notice how when you watch the sand flow through an hour glass, it seems to start flowing faster as it gets to the end?

That’s us.

Time. Use it wisely while you still can.

#79 Habitt on 07.06.20 at 9:55 am

#40/58 Fartzy Thanks for your posts. Bang on. Keep em coming. I suspect they won’t listen but again thanks for the dose of sense /reality

#80 TurnerNation on 07.06.20 at 10:27 am

#47 CL similar here in ON. I noticed the large flood of shiney new trucks and toys on the highways past few weeks.
Gas bills? New Ford F250 Superduty 4x4s used as grocery getters is the norm. (And I wince when putting a mere $30 into a tank. ) A 100k Mastercraft ski boat is the minimum these days. New bass boats with 250hp outboards everwhere,
More lifted and loud exhaust Ram trucks than I’ve ever seen north of Toronto.
In town is all new BMW and Mercedes
Local dealer is advertising a new 4-door Jeep Wrangler only $400/mo. Term? YOLO

#81 IHCTD9 on 07.06.20 at 10:40 am

The featured couple has a nice nest egg on the go. Kids are expensive. Jobs do tend to end unexpectedly. Life is short, mortgages are long. Ten years from now they will start looking forward to retirement, but will likely have a dependent (or two) still under their roof in their mid 50’s, and possibly be paying some big tuition bills at that time.

These two are likely urban dwellers with the same old urban problems. Decent incomes but of course stupid high house prices with a late start on life to boot. Time is important, they’d do well to not blow the good financial start they’ve managed thus far. There will be no making up for killing it without huge income increases later on.

They’ve got 3 realistic options IMHO:

1. Forget about owning a house
2. Forget about a comfy retirement
3. Move to an area where local incomes support the lifestyle and future they want

Delaying home purchase works too, but that goes up in smoke if their jobs get nuked, and let’s face it – if they work in the Private sector – they can expect it to happen at least once.

Every 10 years or so, it seems we have some kind of financial SHTF event. .COM meltdown/telecom bust/911 around 2000, GFC in 08/09, now CV-19 in 2000. This couple better bank on job loss and years to recover at some point. Maybe more than once.

I didn’t make it to 40 before I had to change careers and start over. There is a great chance I will end up in the same boat again before 65…

#82 joblo on 07.06.20 at 10:44 am

Where’s the blog for melting RRSP’s and TFSA’s? Anyone?
Exit stage left, Lieberals will be taxing it away.
Game over in Chinada.

#83 joblo on 07.06.20 at 11:05 am

“Reward work. Fund the Auditor. Tell the truth about the deficit.”

https://youtu.be/Q2EWEfoj29o

#84 Sail Away on 07.06.20 at 11:24 am

Anyone see Tesla today? Yep… another 1/2 year salary for my portfolio. Crazy.

Eventually this probably has to slow down.. What do you think, Dill-O?

#85 YVR Expat on 07.06.20 at 11:33 am

In what fantasy world can Canada afford CERB? We were in a recession pre-coronavirus, oil prices have been low and are forecast to be lower for longer, that means a weak loonie and higher prices for Canadians. We can’t compete with US or China. How will we ever pay off CERB? Is Canada destined for a G7 de-listing?

#86 JB on 07.06.20 at 11:56 am

#203 Steve French on 07.04.20 at 2:05 am

I hate to say it, but the comments section hasn’t been the same since Smoking Man retired.

Also, Garth didn’t respond to my question last week about whether i should sell my high yield bond etf.

Yep. Things sure aren’t like the old days…
…………………………………………………………………….
Sorry to say but me thinks Smoking Man has retired to the Shady Acres Retirement home for the Dyslexic permanently. Sad way to go. Brain Cancer is tragic as you slowly die whilst losing your marbles. Had an uncle who passed with this shitty disease.

Drowsiness/increased sleep 85%
Dysphagia (difficulty swallowing) 85%
Headache 36%
Epilepsy 30%
Agitation and delirium 15%.
Agonal breathing 12%

Other signs that could suggest that the disease is progressing towards include prolonged confusion, visual hallucinations, withdrawal from socializing, loss of appetite, slowing down of bladder function, a cooling of the skin, loss of vision, increased pain and involuntary movements.

#87 Wrk.dover on 07.06.20 at 12:00 pm

I’d be remiss not to mention I grew up in a family with a yacht at the club, a grandfather with a Florida beach house we flew to every Easter even back when planes still had props, a father with an expense account that would make Mike Duffy blush, I know what I’m (not) missing.

#88 JB on 07.06.20 at 12:03 pm

Guess who is going to have to pay for retrofitting hepa-filters, UV cleaning systems in all of these shiny glass condos. The owners! That is if it can be done at all. I will not go into a condo, apartment, hi-rise of any type. My wife’s hospital has been saying this for months now that they believed it is airborne in hi-density spaces. Hi-Density kills.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/scientists-warn-of-overlooked-danger-from-coronavirus-spreading-airborne-microdroplets-1.5012340

#89 John Bets on 07.06.20 at 12:47 pm

Agreed Sinan. Confident going forward no matter how ugly it looks now. Lots of us have been here before and a lot Robinhood Mills have no fear. It’s not a bad combo for the market, a strong floor and lots of dripping fresh meat. How far wrong can we go.

When I think about, it’s like the 80’s , deja by. Bottom line, things change. Trudeau will get dumped, Trump too, the market will go up and down, maybe the Spice Girls will do a reunion tour with Elvis. We just don’t know when and in what order change will unfold. We just know it will and the world will keep spinning.

Remember the 60’s, what was BLM called then? Oh yeah, Black Panthers, all history now. Focus people. The one constant across time is greed.

So, with that in mind, I bought July with both hands today, across the board. US & TSX . I have always found July to be a smart time to buy. It’s a trough month, not too hot not to cold, just right. I think we’ve got peak “cash on the sidelines” .

Sideways till November.

#90 akashic record on 07.06.20 at 12:50 pm

#84 Sail Away

You can short it for only $69.420.

#91 VicPaul on 07.07.20 at 12:28 pm

#87 Wrk.dover on 07.06.20 at 12:00 pm
I’d be remiss not to mention I grew up in a family with a yacht at the club, a grandfather with a Florida beach house we flew to every Easter even back when planes still had props, a father with an expense account that would make Mike Duffy blush, I know what I’m (not) missing.

*********

I know what you mean…weird isn’t it? I had an idyllic childhood – oodles of sports (hockey/skiing [snow and water]/golf/sailing – cedar A-frame (Dad-built) at the lake (not just any lake – sheltered Amethyst Harbour on Lake Superior)- fishing boat, ski-boat, Dad’s sailboat and uptown a great friends neighbourhood – funded by a coupla people (Electrician/Nurse) with a work ethic second-to-none. Thank you Pete and Chickie ).

It’s almost like a reaction to that lifestyle of (relative) excess (it was the Eighties, after all)- I have chosen to live much more simply – dramatically less “stuff”.
I think I’m happy enough.

M56BC

#92 lynn on 07.07.20 at 3:27 pm

Safety for a single women is very important. I have been living in a condo for over 40 years. I purchased in 1983. I did not feel safe living in a house where neighbors would know my exact schedule and I did not want to own a dog to keep people at bay. In a condo, I keep to myself and have less worry about break-ins, fixing a roof, battling everyday fixes. I like to make changes to it without asking a landlord. At one time when I rented, I could not even get the old carpet changed. This is another way of looking at owning one’s own condo.