Polars

Another few points heaped on the Dow Thursday, going into a historic July 4th weekend. Stocks have confounded the Debbie Downers, Karens and Chicken Littles among us by flipping a bird to the virus and romping higher. Since the March low the S&P 500 is up 43%. Even poor Bay Street has swelled 40%.

Despite the best efforts of public health officials to scare the crap out of investors, the gains have held. Looks like they will, too. If you were waiting for a new low, big fail.

Now, did you catch the latest US jobs stats? In June the American economy recaptured 4.8 million lost positions, with the unemployment rate tumbling to 11%. Big win. Analysts had predicted more than a million fewer new hires and a 12% jobless level. That’s why markets shot higher at the opening bell, and why the American president immediately hit social media with this message:

So it’s four months today that Americans are scheduled to choose the next president or keep the existing one. Never before has an incumbent faced double-digit unemployment, a broad-based social protest movement or a public health emergency which has (so far) killed over 132,000 citizens. Trump’s approval numbers, naturally, have been tanking. People are pissed. That’s why many are marching in the streets and a whole lot more are afraid for their health and angry the pandemic has gripped their country (as opposed to, say, Canada).

The jobs rebound still leaves millions out of work

Source: New York Times

It remains a possibility there will be no election. Not if a second wave hits, physical voting is deemed too dangerous and mail-in balloting too wonky and untested. Is that why Trump refuses to be masked? Some people wonder. But that’s as irresponsible a question as asking it Joe Biden has dementia. In the next 120 days, expect political circus and the clash of polar opposite views.

Speaking of Biden, he’s 10 or 14 points ahead in most polls, and strong in states with big weightings in the Electoral College. That gives him 85% odds of winning and explains his recent low profile. Politics 101 says, “if the guy you’re running against is imploding, just shut up.”

Mr. Market is now ruminating on the chances of a triple-header, with Democrats winning the House, the Senate and The White House. What might that mean?

Higher corporate taxes, as the Democrats roll back a part of Trump’s big cut of a few years ago. That’s estimated to dampen profitability about 5%. Ouch, but not fatal. Biden’s also expected to spend a ton of money on infrastructure programs, and the market likes that. It means big government stimulus in an area that creates a boodle of employment moving dirt and pouring concrete.

Biden’s viewed as more predictable than Trump, which is not hard. Markets like a steady hand on the tiller, since it allows for long-term tax and strategic planning. Death-by-Tweet would be a thing of the past.

The unknown is this, however: would Biden embrace or ignore the wild-eyed radicals on the Democratic left, like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren or the dreaded (if fetching) AOC? After all, implementation of the Green New Deal would be a huge negative for investors, while medicare-for-all would send shock waves through the mammoth medical and insurance complex.

And, meanwhile, how will Trump fight and claw his way towards reelection? Will it be constructively through a big stimulus bill that helps deal with a second wave of Covid, or destructively by inciting civil war with BLM and its growing supporters, shredding and defaming Biden or even seeking a vote delay?

Beats me.

But the virus. Maybe it has a plan.

There were 50,000 new infections in the US in a single day this week. A record. A dozen or more states have paused or reversed reopening steps. That makes some people think the giant jobs gain in June may well be just a snapshot in time, not a harbinger.

In short, we have no idea what lies between Independence Day and Election Day. And while the markets are likely to be choppier, more volatile and sometimes just weird, investors get this: (a) pandemics are temporary. They pass. (b) The US central bank has the market’s back, ready to pull out every stop necessary to prevent disaster. Downside is limited. (c) We know Trump already. But same with Biden. No shocks there. (d) The worst of the virus, in terms of economic destruction, is over. (e) Never bet against America.

In other words, stay invested. You will feel jolly and fat, come Christmas.

 

144 comments ↓

#1 Howard on 07.02.20 at 3:40 pm

A few days ago YouTube did a massive purge of the accounts of anti-marxist thinkers and commentators, all of them non-violent so far as I can see. This modern day book burning is gaining steam at a frightening pace. It’s as if ANTIFA has taken over the reins of both government and corporate boards.

Conservative and classically liberal politicians throughout the developed world who, out of cowardly conflict avoidance, don’t vigorously protest this Soviet style censorship, are a big part of the problem.

#2 Tater on 07.02.20 at 3:41 pm

#181 Lambchop on 07.02.20 at 3:11 pm
#180 Tater on 07.02.20 at 2:55 pm

$100 to the charity of your choice if you can produce a study published by Stanford University, on June 6th of this year, that studied the 100 largest counties in the US on the fatality rate of COVID-19.

___________________

It’s really not that hard to find, and the one you referenced isn’t it.

Fingers crossed for a dog charity
————————————————————

Claim the bounty then, sport.

#3 JB on 07.02.20 at 3:41 pm

On e could only wish that Trump just disappears like the corona virus. Oh shit that didn’t happen. Well all you damn Yankees better get out there and vote. Please vote for sanity as we have not had any sanity from this administration for the last three and a half years.

BTW Yes I can believe they ripped off the Nazi symbol.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7130932/trump-nazi-eagle-logo-america-first/

#4 TurnerNation on 07.02.20 at 3:46 pm

When the #s out of the US bear no resemblance to any other’s country’s, not even to reality, at what point does one know they are fake?
The #s on the telescreen will be used to rule our live and achieve goals. It’s that simple. How to steal an election 101.
(Last time, they used “Hanging chads” and “Pregnant Chads”. Remember those? Some people will believe anything. Just teach us a new word/phrase and repeat it 10x daily. Like training dogs.

#5 Dogman01 on 07.02.20 at 3:50 pm

And Never before has an incumbent faced: a MSM on a concerted campaign to help take down a sitting president.

Untrue. – Garth

#6 Rex on 07.02.20 at 3:53 pm

First (?)

#7 jal on 07.02.20 at 3:54 pm

Have you seen this?
….. painless free stuff from government.

https://mises.org/power-market/mmt-not-modern-not-monetary-not-theory
Stephanie Kelton, economics professor at SUNY Stony Brook, is the author of The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy. Professor Kelton was an advisor to the Bernie Sanders presidential campaigns, and her ideas increasingly find purchase with left progressives. It is certainly possible that she has a future either in a Biden administration or even on the Federal Reserve Board, which is a testament to how quickly our political and cultural landscape has shifted toward left progressivism.
And left progressivism requires a “New Economics” to provide intellectual cover for what is essentially a political argument for painless free stuff from government.

#8 Red_falcon on 07.02.20 at 3:55 pm

Best thing to do is invest in dividend growth stocks!! Buy when cheap to prosper in an ever changing world!!!

And… first!!!

#9 Attrition on 07.02.20 at 3:59 pm

Ah, the virus (blog).

I have only one question: How can the # of new infections reported mean anything at all if the # of tests administered is not also reported?

If 100 tests were given and showed 1 positive, that would be a 1% infection rate. If 1000 tests were given and showed 2 positives, that would be a .1% infection rate.

But all that’s being reported, essentially, is the so-called surge in case, the doubling from 1 to 2, rather than the decreasing overall infection, hospitalization or death rate.

This isn’t an oversight, error or omission, it’s intentional obfuscation.

My question is: why?

They ain’t showing us how many tests are performed every day, the margin of error for each type of test kit, and the net new infections adjusted for the +/- MoE.

The numbers you see on every news channel and website are utter garbage.

Garth knows this–it’s simple analytics and statistics–but again, why?

Because sick people are sick people. And we are finding a lot more of them. – Garth

#10 Faron on 07.02.20 at 4:02 pm

Tater, Bytor, Lambo, for the love of Corona, here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2

It’s not the article you are citing, but reviews what is known as of mid-June. 0.6 % IFR overall, 5.0 % if you are a boomer+. That is the current status of knowledge and that will change.

Bytor, Lamb — if you want to pretend to have objectivity and that you apply rational thinking you have to be open with information, accept more than one viewpoint and question “articles” that are pre-prints. Your “neener-neener, I know something you don’t know” approach is childish.

Tater, don’t take the bait.

#11 John on 07.02.20 at 4:13 pm

Garth, I respectively disagree with two points at the end of this post. Yes pandemics are “temporary”, but they can return quickly, and more virulently (1918 influenza a case in point), and they can mutate and become less dangerous – or more (we still don’t know that much about this virus and are discovering new symptoms, as it has only been a few months since it appeared; it claimed an 11 year old in the US so sad). Secondly, to say “the worst of the virus, in terms of economic destruction, is over” assumes a rational approach to addressing it. This US President actively denies the facts of science, causing thousands of needless deaths as people follow his “advice” (watch for death counts to go up later this month, following case counts), so it will get worse. But if it returns more virulently, after the economy has re-opened and people relax, travel starts up…the economy will suffer more hardship. Yes this too shall pass but the other shoe has not yet dropped. So let’s assume a vaccine for COVID-19 is found January, it would take months for everyone to get vaccinated…so we’re talking mid-2021. The stock market does not seem to be factoring four more quarters of economic impact. Then there is the new swine flu that appeared in China…

#12 David mac on 07.02.20 at 4:15 pm

In its latest report, the US health authority CDC reduced the Covid19 lethality (IFR) to 0.26% (best estimate). Even this value may still be seen as an upper limit, since the CDC conservatively assumes 35% asymptomatic cases, while most studies indicate 50 to 80% asymptomatic cases.

This whole thing is the single biggest case of mass hysteria ever forced up on the public. Every politician supporting the ongoing charade should hang their heads in shame for being stupid

#13 Dirty Dan on 07.02.20 at 4:21 pm

#9 Attrition on 07.02.20 at 3:59 pm

Because sick people are sick people. And we are finding a lot more of them. – Garth

They should do a door-to-door test on fitness. Every day they go to a house and find someone that can’t do 10 push-ups and 10 chin-ups then label them as unhealthy.

If people ate right and exercised they wouldn’t be taken down so easily.

#14 Timmy on 07.02.20 at 4:26 pm

James Carville thinks Trump will drop out

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/505656-carville-repeats-prediction-that-trump-will-drop-out-of-race

#15 Brian Ripley on 07.02.20 at 4:28 pm

My Calgary Housing (June stats) is up:
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

Calgary housing prices (SFDs, T-Houses & Condos) were all bid up but sales levels are near the highs from the last 5 years on middling inventory levels.

And my employment earnings charts as well (April data, 2 month lag):
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

Big spike in employment earnings in every province. (Gov’t assistance)

#16 Dogs R Us on 07.02.20 at 4:28 pm

“The unknown is this, however: would Biden embrace or ignore the wild-eyed radicals on the Democratic left, like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren or the dreaded (if fetching) AOC?”

———————————-

When you say “fetching”, do you mean like when I throw my Rottweiler a bone?

#17 Nick on 07.02.20 at 4:37 pm

.
Garth – Never bet against America
Me – Never bet against Lower Brainland real estate prices!!

#18 Jenn on 07.02.20 at 4:43 pm

#9 Attrition
“I have only one question: How can the # of new infections reported mean anything at all if the # of tests administered is not also reported?”
**************************
Answer: It’s very simple, look at the world Covid tracker and you will clearly see how the number of tests are absolutely being tracked. Trump saying that they are testing more than any other country is blatantly false.

Here’s the site: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?isci=010702

US Total Cases = 2.816M. Deaths: 131,332. Total Cases per 1M pop 8,509. Total tests per 1 M pop 106,749

UK Total Cases = 313,483. Deaths: 43,906. Total Cases per 1M pop 4,618. Total tests per 1 M pop 142,325.

Canada Total Cases = 104,643. Deaths: 8,637. Total Cases per 1M pop 2,773. Total tests per 1 M pop 73,396.

The US has the highest by far number of cases and deaths and is #27 in terms of countries doing the most tests. The UK is in 16th place and Canada does lag now at #38 but we have very few cases/deaths.

It’s pure and simple a failure of leadership and the lack of universal healthcare for the US. And of course making mask wearing somehow political and a question of one’s freedom. I used to admire the US and now I pity it and worry about my friends there. Biden may not be perfect but he’s the only hope the US has in regaining their place in the world stage.

#19 paul on 07.02.20 at 4:45 pm

3 JB on 07.02.20 at 3:41 pm

On e could only wish that Trump just disappears like the corona virus. Oh shit that didn’t happen. Well all you damn Yankees better get out there and vote. Please vote for sanity as we have not had any sanity from this administration for the last three and a half years.

BTW Yes I can believe they ripped off the Nazi symbol.
111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111
Like P.T.Barnum said one born every minuet. Global filling space,
Do you see K,K.K. at night when you arrange you pillow.

#20 Lisa on 07.02.20 at 4:46 pm

Well we are already fat(ter) due to the Covid 15! That just leaves the jolly part to work on! Or do you mean fat investment accounts? Hmmm

#21 Attrition on 07.02.20 at 5:05 pm


#19 Jenn on 07.02.20 at 4:43 pm

#9 Attrition
“I have only one question: How can the # of new infections reported mean anything at all if the # of tests administered is not also reported?”
**************************
Answer: It’s very simple, look at the world Covid tracker and you will clearly see how the number of tests are absolutely being tracked. Trump saying that they are testing more than any other country is blatantly false.

Jenn – the US is testing 1 in every 11 people, compared to #2 China testing 1 in every 15, according to the BBC.

Based on this, the US is out-testing every other nation. Trump is telling the truth, despite what your TDS implores you to want to believe.

Why does this even matter if the aggregate number of people discovered to be sick and infected is rising quickly? – Garth

#22 Sail Away on 07.02.20 at 5:14 pm

People will always act like people: irrational, easily panicked, and judgemental.

For example: 95% of the folks on this blog in regards to finance. Everybody knows when markets tank 10, 20, 30, 40%, you should invest as fast and hard as possible. And how many did it? I can count on one hand the number of people posting that they were buying. And some actually went to cash. Doh!

So, if the majority of hopefully financially educated people on this site alone voluntarily choose to miss one of the greatest investing opportunities, why would anyone ever expect the general populace to make prudent decisions about anything, ever?

If you want to be successful in life, do the same as the herd for most things, but do the exact opposite when it’s clear that emotions are driving decisions. Guess what drives all political ideologies? Yep- emotions. Don’t buy it. Examine hard actions not the glitter.

#23 rockinror on 07.02.20 at 5:16 pm

Agree with Garth to be invested and diversified. Having said that, the BLS needs to shorten its name to BS. Its a faulty fake news survey. The real data came out of the Labor Department, where number of new people receiving unemployment insurance surged by 1.3 million and the outrageous 31.5 million receiving continuing claims completely contradicts the BLS nonsense. Better to go with the Labor Department facts than the survey fiction.

#24 Dolce Vita on 07.02.20 at 5:22 pm

“Why does this even matter if the aggregate number of people discovered to be sick and infected is rising quickly? – Garth”

No kidding. Voice of reason.

You can test your butt off but if you DO NOT CONTACT TRACE it’s of no use.

If their testing was so great, why are cases on an exponential trajectory in the US?

-Numquam ponenda est pluralitas sine necessitate.

#25 Simon Sai on 07.02.20 at 5:24 pm

“ The US central bank has the market’s back, ready to pull out every stop necessary to prevent disaster. Downside is limited.”

Ofcourse and that’s the only reason why you can ride this market. If it wasn’t for the central banks, you, Garth, wouldn’t have a Clue of what to do.

You sound like a typical reat estate agent.

#26 Dolce Vita on 07.02.20 at 5:31 pm

The jobs and unemployment numbers for the US are VERY encouraging.

Bode’s well for Canada.

Some other good news from StatCan:

“…exports increased 6.7% in May. Meanwhile, imports decreased 3.9%. As a result, Canada’s merchandise trade deficit with the world narrowed from $4.3 billion in April to $677 million in May.”

May total exports = $34,610 million

$23,206.8 million to the US.

#27 Attrition on 07.02.20 at 5:44 pm


#22 Attrition on 07.02.20 at 5:05 pm
#19 Jenn on 07.02.20 at 4:43 pm
#9 Attrition
“I have only one question: How can the # of new infections reported mean anything at all if the # of tests administered is not also reported?”
**************************
Jenn – the US is testing 1 in every 11 people, compared to #2 China testing 1 in every 15, according to the BBC.
Based on this, the US is out-testing every other nation. Trump is telling the truth, despite what your TDS implores you to want to believe.

Why does this even matter if the aggregate number of people discovered to be sick and infected is rising quickly? – Garth

It may not, but it’s coming down to a big ol’ what if: what if, back when we weren’t testing anywhere near as much as we are today, there were just as many infected?

Only, they were undetected and not reported. And it still had little to no impact on rates of death. Surging tests, surging #’s of infected, but ultimately, same # of lost souls.

And what if zero testing = the exact same rates of infection and death? I know this prospect will make Dolce’s friendly-fire face fall off, but the value in all these numbers would be to see the increasing cases in proportion to the increasing # of administered tests charted historically.

Then we could easily ascertain past rates per test and extrapolate the trends with way more accuracy.

Or, maybe it would just be easier for my simple mind to understand–I admit, I might be missing the obvious pattern here.

More sick people is never good–who could argue with that. But I guess I’m stuck on what ‘more’ actually means.

#28 jess on 07.02.20 at 5:48 pm

2000 undocumented
… the people of ontario were assured by the premier that they would be tested and isolated beforehand ?

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1759552579758

Undocumented workers in Ontario fear getting tested
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/10/16/protesters-occupy-doug-fords-constituency-office-to-demand-stronger-protections-for-temp-workers.html

Ontario’s previous Liberal government initiated a measure that would have ensured all companies who use temps are liable for their injuries at the workers’ compensation board, which workers’ advocates have long argued is a key financial incentive to protecting temps.

But the Liberals did not create the regulations necessary to enforce the new law before being booted from power last year. The Ford government has not moved to implement the measure.

The government has also repealed several other temp worker protections, including the right to equal pay for doing the same work as permanent employees.

#29 Dave Mc on 07.02.20 at 5:48 pm

Mr dolce vita

For you
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

The whole track/trace/test is nonsense. More people have died from the panic caused and due to the catastrophic effects of shutting down the economy and health service than will ever actually die from this new cold virus.

#30 cramar on 07.02.20 at 5:59 pm

The question is, how many are again not paying their monthly rent because they don’t have the money?

#31 FAKE NEWS on 07.02.20 at 6:06 pm

The MR. MARKET got you fooled again.

JULY 4TH is going to create more COVID cases than you got hair on your back.

The only thing AMERICANS care about is their GUNS and their FREEDOM.

Prepare for the UNIMAGINABLE.

The

#32 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 07.02.20 at 6:13 pm

#7 jal on 07.02.20 at 3:54 pm
Have you seen this?
….. painless free stuff from government.

https://mises.org/power-market/mmt-not-modern-not-monetary-not-theory
——————————————————————
I like this quote from the link:
“MMT is for those who believe wealth simply exists, and will continue to exist, regardless of incentives.”
The reason communism always fails is because it removes incentives. I don’t see why MMT would be different.

#33 Westcdn on 07.02.20 at 6:14 pm

I don’t live in the US so my opinion matters little. I think Trump can pull it off as Biden is weak. Not my call but I watch with interest.

I am clawing my way from a hole. Not fun at all. Second guessing does not help. I am one of those guys that are a 100% in or zero. Drives women crazy but I am the one that suffers.

I am happy with my investments – I didn’t need the drawdown but it is what it is. Fortunately, I can wait.

My garden is not doing well judging by the community garden behind me. My potatoes and zucchini are doing well but my pea plants… It is unfortunate you have to wait a year to figure what you did wrong. I am still here and will get it right.

Same as investing. Still like luck on my side… Hail storms can be hell and I can’t control them – much like pandemics.

Life goes on and do learn. Everything is not going to be sunshine and unicorns farting skittles.

#34 Do we have all the facts on 07.02.20 at 6:17 pm

Just a point of clarification Garth testing positive for having the Covid 19 virus in your system does not equate to being sick.

Reporting the increasing number of people testing positive for Covid 19 is creating the impression that a second wave has emerged and that preventative measures must be continued.

We have no idea if those being tested are representative of the general population or whether the tests are weighted towards people who presented at hospitals or testing sites with symptoms.

If all we tested were residents in long term care facilities or people who visited the emergency department at hospital the infection rate would be off the chart and we would be hiding in our basements.

What we do know is that 3.5% of those tested in Canada so far tested positive for the a Covid 19 virus. The number of positive reports peaked in April and has steadily declined in spite of a significant increase in testing.

The mortality rate for 35,000 people 60 years of age or older who tested positive for the Covid 19 virus in Canada was 23.3%. This reflects the simple fact that 6,700 of the 8,591 deaths attributed to Covid 19 virus in Canada were associated with a long term care facility.

The mortality rate for the 67,721 people under the age of 60 who tested positive for the Covid 19 virus was only 0.003%.

The media are creating fear within the general population when the risk of death from the Covid 19 virus is extremely low.

Our governments should concentrate on protecting the most vulnerable not in fanning fear within the general population.

As far as the United States goes who knows how accurate anything coming out of that politically charged environment might be.

#35 John on 07.02.20 at 6:17 pm

David Mac said: “This whole thing is the single biggest case of mass hysteria ever forced up on the public. Every politician supporting the ongoing charade should hang their heads in shame for being stupid.”

David Mac, I encourage you to go speak to the families of the hundreds of thousands who have died from COVID-19, and just listen to them, before spouting such ignorant and thoughtless words.

#36 NoOneOfConsequence on 07.02.20 at 6:29 pm

After the last election, we suddenly believe that the pollsters have it right?

Trump win 2020 – because no one wants to admit they prefer him to the alternatives.

#37 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.02.20 at 6:33 pm

#13 David mac on 07.02.20 at 4:15 pm sez:

“In its latest report, the US health authority CDC reduced the Covid19 lethality (IFR) to 0.26% (best estimate). Even this value may still be seen as an upper limit, since the CDC conservatively assumes 35% asymptomatic cases, while most studies indicate 50 to 80% asymptomatic cases.

This whole thing is the single biggest case of mass hysteria ever forced up on the public. Every politician supporting the ongoing charade should hang their heads in shame for being stupid”
———————————-
BBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMM!

#38 yorkville renter on 07.02.20 at 6:34 pm

Trump, and his supporters, are all snowflakes…

wah! the media reports my awful activities with some spin!
wah! no one is treating the President fair, ANTIFA ANTIFA!!!

Meanwhile, Trump is on record supporting saying: I have people that have been studying [Obama’s birth certificate] and they cannot believe what they’re finding,

…maybe Trump should not be a pathological liar

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/birtherism-and-trump/610978

#39 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.02.20 at 6:35 pm

Garth sez:

“Because sick people are sick people. And we are finding a lot more of them. – Garth”
———————————————-
Geez Garth. Infected people do not equal sick people. Come on man.

#40 The Woosh on 07.02.20 at 6:36 pm

Looks like July 2nd is Nutter Day in the comments section of this blog!

#41 Linda on 07.02.20 at 6:36 pm

‘It remains a possibility there will be no election.’ Well now that you mention it, I’d not be shocked if Trump uses the outbreak to extend his tenure. Especially if it appears that he would lose if the vote was held on the original schedule. Thing is, Americans really get upset if they perceive their rights are being withheld for any reason, so I don’t think not holding the vote would do anything positive for the current incumbent. For all Trump complains about unfair media coverage, the man just can’t keep away from the spotlight. So if he does try using the pandemic to stay in power, could be the catalyst for your classic mob scene with pitchforks & torches. Just saying.

#42 willworkforpickles on 07.02.20 at 6:42 pm

Those 4.8 million new US jobs are already firmly in smoke and mirrors territory.
As it turns out, the praise Trump heaps upon himself and his administration for the semi turn-around is rendered moot as that jobs report was prepared (finalized) the week of June 12th when covid-19 cases where totaling less than 25000 per day.
Moreover, half of those jobs were created in the service leisure and hospitality sectors where exists now real possible renewed shutdowns that could put many of those people out of work again as new cases are spiking daily over 50,000.
The new fear of it topping 100,000 cases daily before long.
Another little tidbit of information with regard to deferrals…In 2009 the US created a mortgage modification program to derail foreclosures. That failed exceeding monumental proportion…and will again.
Will it be different for Canadians in 2021….sure it will be…it has to be…it just has to.
Or…?

#43 BC Renovator on 07.02.20 at 6:43 pm

50,000 cases in a day, and our Borders are open why!? US plates all over the Sea to Sky Hwy, unreal.

#44 Faron on 07.02.20 at 6:43 pm

it’s both. part of the case increase is from enhanced transmission due to mobility and another part is from steadily rising test numbers.

importantly, states with abrupt spikes in numbers are seeing death rates starting to pick up. watch that space.

i speculate that there’s a seasonal effect here too. healthier folks in summer maybe leads to fewer severe cases? if so, winter will be ugly.

#45 -=withwings=- on 07.02.20 at 6:45 pm

@tater
In Academia the word ‘Published’ generally means peer reviewed. John Ioannidis (who works at Stanford but is not stanford) is a researcher researcher. IN other words, his only thing is to read other researchers work and try to find fault in them. He also likes to summarize other research with his own by comparing them. His working theory that he started on in May is this:

The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 can vary substantially across different locations and this may reflect differences in population age structure and case-mix of infected and deceased patients as well as multiple other factors. Estimates of infection fatality rates inferred from seroprevalence studies tend to be much lower than original speculations made in the early days of the pandemic.

This was holding up pretty well, but Brazil is putting the percentage back up again especially among the young

@DaveMC

For you
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

The whole track/trace/test is nonsense. More people have died from the panic caused and due to the catastrophic effects of shutting down the economy and health service than will ever actually die from this new cold virus.

This nonsense has been thoroughly debunked, even here. If you dont understand what an ICD code is, don’t post this type of thing, please.

@democracy is mob rule

I like this quote from the link:
“MMT is for those who believe wealth simply exists, and will continue to exist, regardless of incentives.”

Classic neo con argument: 1) make something up about something you are scared of 2) argue that the thing you just made up is bad (note that this is much simpler than discussing the thing you are actually scared of) 3) gain support from those who failed to notice that step 1 was fake. This is called a ‘straw man’ argument. It is extremely effective, as demonstrated in your link.

#46 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.02.20 at 6:49 pm

#36 “John” on 07.02.20 at 6:17 pm BAAAAHHHHHS:

“David Mac said: “This whole thing is the single biggest case of mass hysteria ever forced up on the public. Every politician supporting the ongoing charade should hang their heads in shame for being stupid.”

David Mac, I encourage you to go speak to the families of the hundreds of thousands who have died from COVID-19, and just listen to them, before spouting such ignorant and thoughtless words.”
————————————————————–
Ah, the ole appeal to emotion again. Typical shaming tactic designed as an emotional argument to “put people in their place”. If they care if they’re offended, of course.

These is where the left constantly fails. for our country’s sake we have to stop appeasing these types of people. Their um, “arguments” are grounded in emotion not logic.

Facts not feelz have to rule.

#47 john m on 07.02.20 at 7:00 pm

Just a matter of days ago Garth you were proclaiming the virus was over and we were back on track? Well the virus is not over as i stated one only has to check the numbers!This virus is far worse than we are being told and the future by the numbers pretty much confirms that this is the beginning ,god help us all for what the future brings.

Do not misquote me. Punishable by fire ants in shorts. – Garth

#48 Deplorable Dude on 07.02.20 at 7:05 pm

Here’s a stat to think about.

Over 8 million new guns sold in the US since March.

Who do you think those buyers will be voting for?

#49 Deplorable Dude on 07.02.20 at 7:09 pm

“There were 50,000 new infections in the US in a single day this week. A record”

And yet the 7 day moving average of US daily deaths continues to drop, now below 500.

# Cases vs # Deaths decoupled back in May.

What we appear to be witnessing is a ‘first wave’ hitting certain states that never saw the initial outbreak in March. We’re also seeing a younger infection demographic….which is good……far lower fatalities, and building herd immunity.

Yes, great news. You betcha. Atta boy. – Garth

#50 Tater on 07.02.20 at 7:16 pm

#46 -=withwings=- on 07.02.20 at 6:45 pm
@tater
In Academia the word ‘Published’ generally means peer reviewed. John Ioannidis (who works at Stanford but is not stanford) is a researcher researcher. IN other words, his only thing is to read other researchers work and try to find fault in them. He also likes to summarize other research with his own by comparing them. His working theory that he started on in May is this:

The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 can vary substantially across different locations and this may reflect differences in population age structure and case-mix of infected and deceased patients as well as multiple other factors. Estimates of infection fatality rates inferred from seroprevalence studies tend to be much lower than original speculations made in the early days of the pandemic.

This was holding up pretty well, but Brazil is putting the percentage back up again especially among the young
————————————————.
And? Bytor was being an ass, citing a study that doesn’t exist(and being very specific, published by Stanford, June 6, 100 biggest counties in the US), and then mocking me (in his mind, but in reality just making a giant ass of himself) for not being able to find this figment of his imagination. The only question left is whether Bytor is stupid or a liar, or, my bet, both.

As for Iannodis, his involvement in the Santa Clara study should be enough for anything he says on the topic to be taken with a higher grain of salt. His inclusion of that same Santa Clara study in his meta analysis (and inclusion of other problematic studies)makes it very hard to believe he isn’t desperately trying to fit data to his preconceived ideas.

#51 Sail away on 07.02.20 at 7:20 pm

#28 Attrition on 07.02.20 at 5:44 pm

More sick people is never good–who could argue with that. But I guess I’m stuck on what ‘more’ actually means.

—————–

Hey, Attrition: I’ve stopped paying attention to the theme/scheme of the day.

Humans love watching a train wreck. If one doesn’t happen, they turn to religion or war or scary stories to create one. This gives the adrenalin rush, dopamine hit, moral imperative, good vs. bad, rules for assimilation, and ultimately… catharsis.

So… this train wreck has gained momentum and we’re going to have it whether it’s real or not. My procedure has shifted from fruitless head banging to vultchy opportunism. People are so silly. Glad I’m not one of them.

#52 Oracle of Ottawa on 07.02.20 at 7:21 pm

There’s a lot of argument of fact vs fiction for covid. A Google search for the number of covid deaths worldwide indicates the US has 130,000 deaths. Almost twice that of the second worst country, Brazil. Someone mentioned the number of positive cases is higher in the US because more people get tested. Yeah, because if you suspect you came in contact with someone with covid, you get tested. Duh.

#53 Dirty Dan on 07.02.20 at 7:27 pm

#30 Dave Mc on 07.02.20 at 5:48 pm
Mr dolce vita

For you
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

Members of his government called this out as a farce back on April 25th and he still ignores it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYB0FrPthts

#54 Sail away on 07.02.20 at 7:30 pm

Hey Tater: Man, Tesla is rocking! 13-bagger now. You know that feeling when you wake up and see you’ve gained a half year’s salary overnight? Oh, sorry, just got carried away there.

What are your graphs and tables saying now? Hahaha

#55 Nonplused on 07.02.20 at 7:33 pm

I still can’t figure out why Canada fared so much better in terms of terms of infections than the US did. But the good news is that as the number of confirmed cases rises in the US the % that dies is dropping. Why that would be I am not quite sure but it might be “the nursing home affect”. The virus has already been there and done that so it may be the population now being infected isn’t as vulnerable.

The sad fact is that sooner or later nearly everybody is going to catch this thing no matter what we do. Just as nearly everyone has had a flu at some point in their lives. But it is encouraging that for a lot of people it is just that, a flu.

——————–

July 4th might be the only day this year I watch CNN. Well and Nov. 3. This year the “fireworks” will likely start around noon EST. I can’t wait to see what they will burn next.

If Garth is correct that the MSM is over-hyping covid for ratings purposes (and I agree they are, look at all the fuss they are making over Trump not wearing a mask), they are certainly over-hyping and stoking the flames of the riots as well. A peaceful protest is somewhat newsworthy, but when the looting and arson starts it makes headlines. And once it gets out there that the police are standing down, all the bad apples come out for an evening of fun and debauchery.

If you spend any time at all following alternative voices on the internet, it is quite clear that many people of color are horrified by the riots. They think it puts a stain on an otherwise worthy cause, and if anything hinders the cause. I think they are right. Most people don’t want to see their cities on fire and crime out of control. And if the statues have to come down, there are better ways to arrive at that consensus than for a mob to show up with ropes in the middle of the night. That is not democracy, it is mob rule by a small minority of vandals. And now they have their sights set on Mt. Rushmore. Good luck with that though, it’ll take more than a Molotov cocktail.

I mean now they want to take down Lincoln memorials, the man who did the most of anyone to end slavery. Sure, he was racist, but the man should be understood in his time. Ending slavery was a huge step forward in a backward time. He at least recognised the rights and freedoms enshrined in the constitution applied to all men, or “peoplekind” or whatever we are saying these days, even if he had other racist views. It was a giant leap forward and many union soldiers gave their lives to accomplish it.

Anyway the flames of social unrest are burning now and I don’t expect it to let up between now and Nov. 3. And CNN will be there handing out flame throwers.

#56 yvr_lurker on 07.02.20 at 7:42 pm

Must admit that I don’t understand all those who do not see the impending train wreck with Covid that will soon implode in Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California where in the next few weeks positive tests will lead to ever increasing deaths. The whistle is blowing, train is running full speed, and people are still debating whether to wear a mask, questioning authority, and looking for whatever BS they can extract out of the numbers to “rationalize” a pre-specified point of view. Even if the death rate soars in these states, there will still be some that will call it fake news and CNN propaganda.
I do think from Garth’s Canada day message that he appreciates the seriousness of this virus much more so than blog posts in April and that he is giving some credit to the Canadian politicians and population who have by and large handled this crisis well. Not to say that there will not be an epic amount of debt to repay, but the ramifications of doing nothing and keeping everything open will be playing out in the US in the next month. Am certainly glad I am up here.

#57 jess on 07.02.20 at 7:44 pm

Melbourne coronavirus outbreak should give Aussies a jolt that pandemic is not over, top doctor says
https://9now.nine.com.au/a-current-affair/coronavirus-melbourne-residents-caught-flouting-stay-at-home-orders-amid-second-wave-of-covid19/cb6aa63e-d48d-41e6-8af6-1afbf43f55cd

Police will use drones as part of patrols in Melbourne, as checks ramp up across 36 locked-down suburbs amid the ongoing debacle over hotel quarantine.
Opposition leaders have called for the state’s health minister to be sacked over the debacle, after a contracted security guard claimed he was only given five minutes of training on how to look after isolated travellers.

The hundreds of new coronavirus cases in the city – including another 77 yesterday – have been linked back to quarantine workers taking the virus out of hotels.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-melbourne-police-patrols-restrictions-hotel-quarantine-lock-down-suburbs/ed0bb050-2ffa-4ae4-995c-b180b79cf44a

#58 cuke and tomato picker on 07.02.20 at 7:48 pm

My wife and I plan to pay the $300,00 tax free from T2
forward.T2 said he was going to give people over 75 a 10
per cent increase on there OAS. Is this still going to
happen?

#59 Covid 1984 on 07.02.20 at 7:54 pm

50000 new infections…is not 50000 new deaths..it’s news for the lemmings…

#60 Honest Realtor on 07.02.20 at 8:03 pm

Respectfully, Mr Turner, the facts are once again proving the real estate naysayers wrong.

It has been common to read here that people think vacation properties will depreciate faster than urban ones.

Wrong.

Cottage sales are now soaring, up over 25%!

https://www.thestar.com/business/2020/07/02/covid-brings-surging-interest-in-cottage-real-estate.html

With working from home now possible for many, rural properties have extra appeal. This will push up sales and prices for years to come.

This will be accompanied, as I detailed yesterday, by a soon-to-be massive influx of immigration just like Britain is offering Hong Kong refugees.

Canada is near the top of the list for most in the world to come to.

We will gift them freedom and life in this wonderful country, and they will bring money to buy property and incomes with taxes to help pay off our COVID-19 debts.

There will be a brief lull in real estate this summer. But then a burst of energy will develop and then explode by 2021-22, pushing up prices again all over Canada.

There will be no “crash”. Nothing even close.

There will be a brief buying opportunity for those with savvy.

Then another decade of wonderful investment gains in real estate.

It’s summer. Cottage prices inflate in the good weather. Do people pay you for these insights? – Garth

#61 Faron on 07.02.20 at 8:04 pm

#50 Deplorable Dude on 07.02.20 at 7:09 pm

“7 day moving average of US daily deaths… now below 500.”

Uh, by “…below 500” you mean “…is at about 560” right? (Assuming we are all looking at the mysterious worldometers)

The rate could keep dropping and that would be a plus, but a M.A. is retrospective (unless it’s centred which this isn’t) and deaths lag infection growth by a couple of weeks. Mean time to death is in the 10 – 18 day range. Cases started to climb again some time around the middle of June say the 18th.

So, if any part of those increased case loads are occurring in the susceptible, you should see deaths start to climb again in the next few days. June 18th + 14 days (time to death) + 3.5 days (centres the MA) gives July 5th.

I’d give 3 to 2 odds that by next Thursday the backward looking 7-day MA will be on the rise again. I’ll further venture that the US has bought itself a continued increase for at least another 3 weeks after that, so into August unless people shelter or states lock down again ASAP…

#62 Deplorable Dude on 07.02.20 at 8:30 pm

#63 Faron “Uh, by “…below 500” you mean “…is at about 560” right? (Assuming we are all looking at the mysterious worldometers)”

No I use the Covid Tracking Project site.

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1278809676801470464?s=20

As you say we’ll know pretty soon. But I’ve seen several reports that even though hospitalizations have risen, it’s a younger demographic and they are being discharged in much larger numbers than in the past.

#63 Subtle rebuttal on 07.02.20 at 8:31 pm

#19 Jenn on 07.02.20 at 4:43 pm
—————————————-
Oh Jenn, sweetheart. You make me laugh with your comments. You really must be Canadian, eh?

Yes, US has tested more than any country by far. (If you believe anything from China, you ard more dense than your comments would suggest) He didn’t say per capita, you made that up to suit your “Trump hating” narrative. Feel free to hate as you will; just don’t try to rationalize your beliefs.

Secondly, it is funny that you didn’t mention that UK death rate is 60% greater than that of US. Wouldn’t death rate be more important than testing rate? Infection rate?

Finally, since you are so smart and smug, please inform me as to why testing is so important? Nobody has yet. Does it prevent anything? Deaths? Infections? Or is it just fear-mongering rhetoric?

Hoisted on your own pitard, perhaps? At least you have your mask to protect you!

#64 Leigh on 07.02.20 at 8:31 pm

Attrition on 07.02.20 at 3:59 pm
Ah, the virus (blog).

I have only one question: How can the # of new infections reported mean anything at all if the # of tests administered is not also reported?

If 100 tests were given and showed 1 positive, that would be a 1% infection rate. If 1000 tests were given and showed 2 positives, that would be a .1% infection rate.

But all that’s being reported, essentially, is the so-called surge in case, the doubling from 1 to 2, rather than the decreasing overall infection, hospitalization or death rate.

This isn’t an oversight, error or omission, it’s intentional obfuscation.

My question is: why?

They ain’t showing us how many tests are performed every day, the margin of error for each type of test kit, and the net new infections adjusted for the +/- MoE.

The numbers you see on every news channel and website are utter garbage.

Garth knows this–it’s simple analytics and statistics–but again, why?

Because sick people are sick people. And we are finding a lot more of them. – Garth
_________________________________________
Really Garth? You know better than that, a positive Covid test does not mean being sick from the virus. It’s been already proved many people could have had it without knowing it or being sick.

People usually seek testing when they are ill, not healthy. That would be my course of action. How about you? – Garth

#65 Orange Man....Orange on 07.02.20 at 8:43 pm

If you like the chaos is the streets, then your choice is easy… Vote Biden.

Biden will be unable/unwilling to reel the leftists in, so get ready for more fun!

#66 JG on 07.02.20 at 8:45 pm

Anyone who truly believes Biden is ahead needs their head examined IMHO. This is a Psyop by certain persons to remove Trump from office. Period. Its funny how the mainstream media has the same talking points and their words are repeated verbatim. Gotta stick to the narrative.

Trump has done well under such pressure

Remember Hillary was way ahead in the polls. She didnt think she was gunna lose.

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.02.20 at 8:47 pm

@#31 cramar
“The question is, how many are again not paying their monthly rent because they don’t have the money?”

++++

Well, June 30th I went in to the rental office to hand over 6 months worth of post dated cheques and the landlady was dealing with 3 separate groups of 20 somethings with no money giving their reasons why they weren’t paying July’s rent.
Landlady was shocked when I handed her 6 months worth of post dated cheques.
I’d say being a building owner with a huge mortgage on an apartment building right now…….sux.

@#44 BC Reno’s
“50,000 cases in a day, and our Borders are open why!? US plates all over the Sea to Sky Hwy, unreal.’

++++
Well , we cant block access to Alaska because the US built the Highway we use through BC to the Yukon to Alaska AND they spend hundreds of millions on maintaining it (Canada included) every year.

So, until the BC and Federal politicians grow spines and actually DO something….ban “holiday” junkets to BC from the lower 48 ie: no hotels allowed, no meals, no camping. Just gas and groceries for Alaskans and or their relatives driving through with a Canada Customs stamped visa good for 3 days…
Anyone that violates those conditions.
$5000 fine, seizures and deportation

That was easy.
Too bad govts need touchy feely consensus and complete agreement before making a quick decision.

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.02.20 at 8:50 pm

@#49 Deplorable
“Over 8 million new guns sold in the US since March.
Who do you think those buyers will be voting for?

+++++

Ronald Regan?

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.02.20 at 8:55 pm

@#62 Honest Realtor
“Cottage sales are now soaring, up over 25%!”
+++

Its Summer AND some people are fleeing the big cities with higher infection / lockdown rates.
Just curious.
When our sun eventually goes supernova will realtors be telling people its a good time to buy?

#70 Steven Nicolle on 07.02.20 at 9:04 pm

We have done a great job of keeping our cases low but now phase 3 is coming. Indoor dining, bars, gyms, larger gatherings are coming. Bet you this week long of hot temperatures beaches will be full. Toronto a hub city for hockey bars will be full. Everyone cheering at wide screen tv spreading the Covid. Backyard gatherings full. Travelling by air in crowded plane and airports. Then soon it will be school. Lots of young people will now get infected. Then you guys who say this is just a senior’s problem will shut up. Just saying….watch and don’t forget wash your hands.

#71 Idiocy on 07.02.20 at 9:23 pm

Funny thing is Mr. Turner is that you are arguing that the US and Canadian economies are going to suck for a some time while saying that ‘ the US central bank has the economy’s back’ and that ‘downside is thereby limited’.

So basically you are saying to invest anyway, despite the fundamentals because a central bank construct will save the day.

So, earnings, economic activity, dividend cuts, debt and mass unemployment levels (fundamentals) don’t matter and that people should buy into a market that is even MORE overvalued ( 150 % of LAST year’s GDP) than pre CV19.

But, somehow Cdn RE prices will drop dramatically based on those same fundamentals.

I think what you are really saying is that all this money printing will make real assets inflate to reflect the devaluation of currency.

Please do correct me if I have misinterpreted your thesis.

You have. I said CBs are limiting financial market risk. That is obvious. And nowhere have I said housing will decline dramatically. CMHC did that. Go fight with them. – Garth

#72 Idiocy on 07.02.20 at 9:34 pm

Just back from Rome’s biggest international airport. Talked to a few well informed tourism executives and saw with my own eyes;

1) 85 % reduction in air travel tourists
2) 85 % vacancy rate in city hotels
3) only 2 / 9 restaurants in the airport departure lounge open with severely reduced menus and staffing

This is at the ‘HEIGHT’ of the tourist season in the 2nd most tourist visited city in the EU after travel restrictions have been lifted !

No economy can withstand this level of business loss without serious consequences.

#73 McSteve on 07.02.20 at 9:39 pm

At what point does all this sovereign debt become an issue? Do we all party like it’s 1999 forever?

#74 Idiocy on 07.02.20 at 9:41 pm

Something to ponder for all of you optimists out there;

If even only 25 % of businesses fail and effectively have their capital / equity erased, from where will spring the pools of capital to replace them ( and the jobs they represent)?

#75 1255 on 07.02.20 at 9:46 pm

If you were waiting for a new low, big fail.
————————————————————————

That’s funny because you were saying that after we hit the low in March! Revisionist history?

I said markets could always drop, so expect volatility. Still true. But we are not likely now to see a 40% plop. As facts change, so should you. – Garth

#76 Idiocy on 07.02.20 at 9:47 pm

re: comment # 74

” Go fight with them.”

Not fighting with anybody, Mr. Turner.

Just looking for clarification.
And you have provided that in your own way.

But, I do hope you are correct on housing prices. I have rather a lot ( for me) riding on continued stratospheric Canadian residential RE prices.

#77 highlander101 on 07.02.20 at 9:49 pm

response to #48
Geez Garth you sure put up with a lot of shite within the comments section, glad you have fire ants to dispense at your disposal, you deserve such rights!!!! :) thx for all you do !!!

#78 Tater on 07.02.20 at 9:58 pm

#45 Faron on 07.02.20 at 6:43 pm
it’s both. part of the case increase is from enhanced transmission due to mobility and another part is from steadily rising test numbers.

importantly, states with abrupt spikes in numbers are seeing death rates starting to pick up. watch that space.

i speculate that there’s a seasonal effect here too. healthier folks in summer maybe leads to fewer severe cases? if so, winter will be ugly.

————————————-

One theory is that it takes a period of continuous exposure to become infected. Passing someone on the street isn’t enough, you need to spend time indoors in close proximity. As the southern US heats up, people spend more time indoors and cases go up. The opposite happens in the North.

Also helps to explain why there haven’t been spikes in cases after large outdoor gatherings like in Trinity Bellwoods.

#79 Doug in London on 07.02.20 at 10:00 pm

I have absolutely no idea who will win the U.S. election this year, not a clue. If you insist on getting an answer, then try flipping a coin. What I do know is anyone who went on a stock or equity ETF buying binge in mid March scooped up some awesome deals. If you missed that golden opportunity or still have some cash you want to put to work I have a hot tip for you. Some REITs are on sale now.

#80 WiseGuy on 07.02.20 at 10:48 pm

One of the prevailing questions surrounding the progress of COVID-19 is just how closely it’s going to cleave to the path hewn by its Spanish Flu ancestor. The first wave of the Spanish Flu, you’ll remember, differed little in terms of fatality rate than the seasonal flu while presenting with the same characteristics (cytokine storm, for example). The second wave was where the death-toll escalated, and the numbers owe not only to the disease itself, but the response to it, including the historical and circumstances of scientific advancement.

#81 Looking up on 07.02.20 at 10:50 pm

re: comment # 74

” Go fight with them.”

Not fighting with anybody, Mr. Turner.

Just looking for clarification.
And you have provided that in your own way.

But, I do hope you are correct on housing prices. I have rather a lot ( for me) riding on continued stratospheric Canadian residential RE prices.

——————

Garth, all you ever publish are negative predictions about real estate, CMHC etc. This is why we all naturally assume you are predicting a decline in real estate prices. You said yourself to unload real estate or at least not buy right now.

#82 G on 07.02.20 at 10:56 pm

I recall hearing the lock down wasn’t to keep people from catching the virus, but to slow the spread. So if the small % that needed extra medical help happened over a longer time they would not over whelm the medical system, so more could be helped. Most 80% have mild symptoms if any, and gain natural immunity.

Now that real Dr. have more experience treating people, there are some treatments that can help. Treating early is better, if needed at all.

Personally I’m drink some tonic water with a zinc each day, on top if other vitamins.

See interview below for more info on treatments that works if you need it at all, start early, only ~$20.

link is to Rudy W. Giuliani YouTube site, he’s Trump’s lawyer, so you know what his bias might be.
Interview starts at 1:27, 33min July 1, 2020.

Doctor Has 99.3% Survival Rate for COVID-19 Patients Urges America To Continue Reopening | Ep. 49
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFwjY0qe7ro&t=90s

Also on YouTube, the X22report seems to have an interesting take on current USA affairs, politically and financially. There is talk about some guy names Q too.
If interested check it out. But it might just be fictional.
https://www.youtube.com/user/X22Report/videos

One more thing, Hopefully Maxwell isn’t allowed to kill herself before talking, we will see I guess.

#83 Mike on 07.02.20 at 11:07 pm

The pandemic was seriously over-hyped. Politicans rhetorically saying that any life lost was morally wrong, and that we should accept any restrictions on our freedoms and rights to save 1 person. Which is laughable since we haven’t banned smoking or driving. Of all the people that have died of covid how many wefe actually healthy before the pandemic? And how many had cardiovascular disease, diabetes and other diseases?

#84 JPN on 07.03.20 at 12:09 am

Tater, I see your on a tear again tonight.. good for you. Why is it you criticize or have remarks for everyone else other than contribute ? A few posts back you insinuated I was a terrible employer and missed my point completely on why a can’t hire employees due to CERB ? Once again.. criticize this post as I am convinced you will.. but lighten up.. Really .. what’s your deal anyway ?

#85 rick on 07.03.20 at 12:37 am

cousin just bought a 1.9mil house in vaughan on a 100k yrly household income + 20k under the table cash yr.
asked him how, which bank?
answer-mortgage broker set them up with fake employment letters. wife works at st.michaels as a therapist making 160k

#86 VicPaul on 07.03.20 at 1:18 am

#66 Subtle rebuttal on 07.02.20 at 8:31 pm
#19 Jenn on 07.02.20 at 4:43 pm
—————————————-
Oh Jenn, sweetheart. You make me laugh with your comments. You really must be Canadian, eh?

Yes, US has tested more than any country by far. (If you believe anything from China, you ard more dense than your comments would suggest) He didn’t say per capita, you made that up to suit your “Trump hating” narrative. Feel free to hate as you will; just don’t try to rationalize your beliefs.

Secondly, it is funny that you didn’t mention that UK death rate is 60% greater than that of US. Wouldn’t death rate be more important than testing rate? Infection rate?

Finally, since you are so smart and smug, please inform me as to why testing is so important? Nobody has yet. Does it prevent anything? Deaths? Infections? Or is it just fear-mongering rhetoric?

Hoisted on your own pitard, perhaps?

*********

Hoisted…pitard – classic line from a favourite Waits tune.

https://www.google.com/search?q=purple+avenue+tom+waits&rlz=1C1GCEV_en&oq=purple+avenue&aqs=chrome.4.69i57j0l2j46j0l4.9224j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&safe=active&ssui=on

#87 crazyfox on 07.03.20 at 1:48 am

(a) pandemics are temporary. They pass.

That’s not what history tells us with the common cold of which Corona virus’s capture some 15% market share. Interestingly, Corona virus’s weren’t in the human gen pop 50 years ago. Who knew. Since then however, two Genus types (229E and OC43) have caused ongoing pandemics by way of common colds world wide since the 70’s. We aren’t aware, because the end result infections are as benign as “the common cold”. 229E mutates its surface antigens (antigenic drift) the same way influenza does explaining why a flu shot is only good for 6 months or so, and OC43 goes the way of antigenic shift meaning new strains and potentially a new genus of virus over time. Both Corona virus’s cause ongoing pandemics by re-infecting those with past immunity through either or. 229E fights the immune system re-infecting hosts through disguise, while OC43 generates new strains to re-infect hosts with old strain immunity (last year’s OC43 count was 29). Vaccines will need to react in kind. If Covid-19 tries to re-infect herd immunity through antigenic drift, a vaccine will be short lived or seasonal and if Cocid-19 tries to re-infect herd immunity through the generation of new strains (I think it will), vaccines will need to be updated depending on the number and concentration of new stains, every 2 years.

Should this pandemic go away? Ask China. Their lives are back to normalish, it can be done but look at the U.S. and their leadership and their group efforts to, well, any cause. We know the answers. Virus’s prey on the weak, not just the immune weak but the weak of mind. Strong immune systems for example, stop Covid-19 in its tracks. What do we need for that? To be disease free for one and to not be nutritionally deficient of what is stacking up to be Zinc, Vitamin D, Zinc Ionophores and Vitamin C as highest on the list. The latest study with Vitamin D for example, is that if you are subclinically deficient, you are 7x more likely to die and if you are fully deficient, 10x more likely. If I was an American heading into a second wave, I might just want to know that. But, in media, nary a peep. The “eat what I want, as much as I want, when I want and where I want crowd”, let them eat cake, theory of natural selection and all that although it doesn’t give much by way of comfort. The ignorant and arrogant are sometimes still loved, weak as they are. Y’know?

Pandemics end? Naw, we just find something new to talk about. This one may be around a while. Investors might just have to get used to the idea, yup. Maybe a new pandemic with similar mortality rates, just to rub it in.

https://study.com/academy/lesson/how-viruses-mutate-antigenic-drift-and-antigenic-shift.html

(b) The US central bank has the market’s back, ready to pull out every stop necessary to prevent disaster. Downside is limited.

Is that realistic though?

https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/countries-by-national-debt/#:~:text=Debt%20to%20GDP%20Ratio%20by%20Country%202020%20,%20%2010%2C423%2C054%20%2071%20more%20rows%20

The U.S. central bank can borrow to infinity without disrupting its currency, “downside is limited”? The U.S. just added another 20% public debt to GDP (through in state and municipal debt, and U.S. intergovernmental debt to GDP was around 125% before the pandemic) and is heading into chaos with a belief that Covid-19 was seasonal and, since there is no herd immunity surprise surprise, its not. So much for seasonality. y’know…. its July and numbers are up. Its not like governments haven’t had time to rethink it and make better choices. Look at the response with masks alone. Has the gen pop got them yet? Can we find cheap, available N-95’ers yet? Will they be here by Christmas? We’re going to wear cloth bandanas again, that’s the plan?

(c) We know Trump already. But same with Biden. No shocks there.

Biden will be better than Trump hands down. I don’t think anyone believes Biden will be an 8 term president but people do believe he has the experience and know how to help put the right people in charge.

The Green revolution thing… this climate change issue won’t go away. It’s definitely more serious than a Covid-19 pandemic, although you wouldn’t know it. If central bankers want to blow the wad, this is the hill you die on truth be told and we are failing across the globe in our reactions to it.

I’ve talked at length at what follows an Arctic ice free ocean. By the end of this year’s melt season, there may not be any ice in the entire East of the Arctic ocean from 140 degrees west to zero degrees East, or a 220 degree fan from the North pole. By the end of next year’s melt season, there likely won’t be any ice left at all. What follows environmentally, including the conversations and what to do, the policies and public reactions, the pains of trying to embrace a carbon neutral economy, the greed driven choices in a leadership vacuum environment laden with poor mental health, none of what comes next will be normal.

(d) The worst of the virus, in terms of economic destruction, is over.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

That’s not what the numbers are saying. 11 million world wide currently infected. Are we headed for 50, 60, 70 by April of next year? There were 208,000 cases world wide yesterday, a new high. 250 days x 200,000 = 50,000,000. Is it so hard to envision now? Will central bankers continue to reward stupid government leaders and their woefully bad choices on how to handle this thing forever without consequence? Do we still believe in a “V” shaped recovery looking at these numbers “in July”, does anyone here think things will improve this fall and winter? “Unemployment is only 11%”, its lipstick on a pig. I get the importance of economic stability and the need to promote improvement, but we would be quite foolish to think it will last into next spring. “But we’ve priced it in!” Have we now?

(e) Never bet against America.

When they are at their best. The only thing they seem to be best at these days is highest and new cases of Corona virus. Their numbers are nothing short of fail and come with economic consequences and there’s no way to sugar coat it. The U.S. is swimming in the consequence of a leadership vacuum. The terrible choices that were made at the highest levels of government, this will not reverse until present leadership is replaced with flesh blood holding a clear eyed, reasonable plan. Dems controlling all 3 houses, could it be so bad?

I mean, here we are, debating whether or not there will be a U.S. presidential/mid term election, the likes of present leadership cashing in on its own failures ’cause that’s that it is. If it goes down that way, how will that end well? Square peg, round hole.

#88 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.03.20 at 2:10 am

People usually seek testing when they are ill, not healthy. That would be my course of action. How about you? – Garth
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Not true, Garth, I’m always driving past people lined up down the block at the CLSC’s (Quebec’s Public Health Clinics). None of them look ill or act sickly. They’re just standing around outside for hours waiting to get the test. They’re all wearing masks though, that’s because it’s the fearful, paranoid worry-warts who are going for the testing.

#89 Al on 07.03.20 at 2:20 am

I have to agree that just the number of infections (the only number the media keeps blabing about, I guess it gets them good ratings ) doesn’t really have give an accurate idea of what is happening on it’s own. As other have noted the death rate is still decreasing, however it is a somewhat lagging indicator. This should be evident for those familiar with numbers such as our esteemed host.

#90 fused on 07.03.20 at 2:56 am

#23 Sail Away
One would hope that posters here were trolling, sales that good and sitting in cash waiting for the reset. These will be the same people time and time again buying in near the top getting wiped out at the bottom and complaining about the game being rigged.
I am still picking up junior oil companies and waiting for covid to pass and then for oil to roar back, starting to pick at food supply and infrastructure now in anticipation of shortages this winter. Since people are freaked out of the covid on foreign workers and they themselves do not want to pick food it will be a lucrative feedback loop if one positions themselves properly.

#91 Janice Fortuen on 07.03.20 at 3:53 am

DELETED

#92 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.03.20 at 6:47 am

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.02.20 at 8:55 pm sez:
“@#62 Honest Realtor
“Cottage sales are now soaring, up over 25%!”
+++

Its Summer AND some people are fleeing the big cities with higher infection / lockdown rates.
Just curious.
When our sun eventually goes supernova will realtors be telling people its a good time to buy?”
——————————————————-
“Home sales in this area are hot hot hot”!

#93 Investx on 07.03.20 at 7:15 am

A spike in COVID cases after SJW protests?
Shocker!

#94 TurnerNation on 07.03.20 at 7:53 am

A curious announcement from banks this week. This country is run by bankers:

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that all five of Canada’s biggest banks are joining an international boycott of Facebook over concerns that the platform is complicit in promoting racism, violence and misinformation.”

– Here’s what’s going on. Every good marketing campaign requires ‘touchpoint’ – a set in stone concept that resonates with consumers. We can all agree that Ray Cism is bad.

Now they’re not going to outright tell you “Hey we’re launching a global totalitarian regime and all dissent online, all opinions different to the hive mind, will be deleted”.
No the will tell you ‘we must end free speech to combat Ray Cism’.
Alternate themes could be ‘think of the children’. Or ‘public health’. They already used ‘public health’ to remake society in March. We won’t fall for that again. Very quickly a month ago they pivoted to the Ray Cism campaign globally. Stunts with police kneeling, remember that?
The whole world is a stage. A handful of major media operating in tandem. This war is for your mind.

#95 Tater on 07.03.20 at 7:56 am

#183 Bytor the Lying Dog on 07.02.20 at 6:26 pm
@180 Tater:

I see you finally found what I was talking about and constructed your strawman. Just as predicted.

Nice job!
————————————————————–

Excellent, the liar has admitted his lie. You did not have a study from Stanford, released on Jun 6, that studied the largest 100 counties in the US. Thanks. Not sure why it took so long, but things are slow these days so watching you sh*t down your leg has provided quite a bit of entertainment.

#96 TurnerNation on 07.03.20 at 8:03 am

^ Forgot to add that this new global order is being run by the corporations (China commy-corp model). And our leader so love that system.
Like the one day all the big corps suddenly posted black squares on the their IG. A global co-ordinated campaign.
This ain’t grass roots. It is the New System flexing is muscle for your mind.
Why small business has to be destroyed via shut down.
Go ahead, post a dissenting opinion on social media. Your social credit score will go to 0 (you are deleted).
Welcome to the New System

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.20 at 8:23 am

@#89 rick
“answer-mortgage broker set them up with fake employment letters. wife works at st.michaels as a therapist making 160k”

++++

No job, no money, no problem…Ninja loans.
“Deals” like these should truly help in the eventual correction of housing that is coming with the economic spanking we will be experiencing.
When the greedy idiots that set this all up get burned…..they will blame everyone but themselves.

Torrential rain and 11c in the Lowerbrainland this am.
Its been a soggy May , June ( 8 weekends in a row of rain)and start of July.
Keep an eye out for major flood news in BC in the coming days and weeks.

#98 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.03.20 at 8:42 am

@99 Tater-

Not lying at all. The study exists and as a matter of fact has been up dated. You’re just a lazy denier.

#99 MF on 07.03.20 at 8:46 am

85 G on 07.02.20 at 10:56 pm

If you look, you’ll see social media lighting up with young Americans who have gotten Covid and are recovering. Some admit to being careless, others aren’t sure where they got it.

A lot of them say it’s really nasty, and takes weeks to months to fully feel normal again. It’s the intensity and the duration of the illness that make it unique. In addition to expected symptoms (fever, difficulty breathing and extreme fatigue) a lot of the symptoms can be bizarre. Some get delirium, brain fog or intestinal issues as examples. Some report not being able to do any physical activity or think properly for weeks after “recovering”.

It’s a crapshoot.

As we know some people are lucky to feel nothing, and other people are, as described, knocked out for weeks. Any health weaknesses are exposed if you happen to be someone who has a bad go of it. You just don’t know.

I’m not posting this to scare anyone, it’s that the focus on death rate alone is myopic. There are others who survived but who have had their bodies permanently damaged. What about them?

Society is opening. Finally. Complaining about the lockdown or the media is tiresome already. Just take the issue seriously, take all the precautions, and try to function -like the rest of us- in this world until this passes.

Oh yeah, I don’t think anyone cares about the Epstein story. No one ever did. No one buys any of the conspiracy theories attached to it either. He wasn’t a good guy and now he’s gone. Let’s move on already.

MF

#100 IHCTD9 on 07.03.20 at 8:46 am

#87 JPN on 07.03.20 at 12:09 am
Tater, I see your on a tear again tonight.. good for you. Why is it you criticize or have remarks for everyone else other than contribute ? A few posts back you insinuated I was a terrible employer and missed my point completely on why a can’t hire employees due to CERB ? Once again.. criticize this post as I am convinced you will.. but lighten up.. Really .. what’s your deal anyway ?
—-

I’m guessing anger control issues combined with a healthy case of small guy syndrome / Napoleon complex.

Haven’t seen Tater in a pleasant mood yet since he started posting – always seems to be looking for a fight.

#101 Wrk.dover on 07.03.20 at 9:02 am

While enjoying a just caught serving of haddock at an oceanfront restaurant with a stunning view from my table last night, I experienced something I had completely forgotten about since the pandemic began.

Buddy to the right of me said “look to your left, this is the new normal”

To my left were two impeccably groomed and well dressed twenty something couples at a round table. I had to look a second time and stare more carefully, because on the first short glance I had thought they were leaning into the center and praying!

All four of them were silently texting!

Oh, the sights we have been missing while under lock-down.

#102 Wrk.dover on 07.03.20 at 9:04 am

Maybe that should read “a serving of just caught”

Sorry, Sail Away

#103 jess on 07.03.20 at 9:14 am

..”Since people are freaked out of the covid on foreign workers and they themselves do not want to pick food”
==========

Could the real reason people are upset
be in learning how exploited temp. workers precarious work nature

https://www.thestar.com/news/investigations/2019/07/09/inspectors-visited-temp-agencies-supplying-fiera-foods-where-4-workers-have-died-since-1999-heres-what-they-found.html

#104 IHCTD9 on 07.03.20 at 9:20 am

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.20 at 8:23 am

Torrential rain and 11c in the Lowerbrainland this am.
Its been a soggy May , June ( 8 weekends in a row of rain)and start of July.
Keep an eye out for major flood news in BC in the coming days and weeks.
—-

Send some of it our way. 35C in the shade yesterday, the thermometer hit 30 at 9:00 this am. Pond is down two feet, and the grass is starting to die off. Barely any rain this month, and when it comes it’s a short deluge that mostly runs off.

We also seem to be having a plague of tent caterpillars too.

#105 Dharma Bum on 07.03.20 at 9:29 am

#32 Fake News

The only thing AMERICANS care about is their GUNS and their FREEDOM.
——————————————————————–
Freedom’s good. Guns are fun.

At least they’re passionate about SOMETHING!

Beats poutine and TV watching.

#106 TurnerNation on 07.03.20 at 9:30 am

This morning downtown Toronto is a hollowed out shell. The new UN Smart City. A few scared people masked and muzzled scurrying around. Small business are boarded up. Some patios might open in the evening.
Only big corporations prevail – the ones which posted a black square on their social media, playing the game in the New System.

This city like all others used this crisis to implement Agenda 21 (in time for 2021), that is shutting down streets and replacing with bike lanes. Trashed Queen St E, East of Broadview they removed the parking lane and made it planters. No parking. More pain for local business. ‘Distancing’ the ultimate silent weapon.

All fun has been removed in the New System. No more seeing your kids’ dance recital or school talent show. No birthday parties or even weddings. Can’t hug Granny in the old folks home. Travel and tourism is shut down.
Shopping in a drug store and a syrupy timed announcement comes on overhead. ‘Be aware of your surroundings. We are working hard to keep you safe.’ Yep in this WW3 even your local druggist is a War Zone. A Hot Zone.
Only government and business can ‘keep us safe’. (From t3rror!sts? Oh that is so 2000’s)

Bike lanes only…so how to leave the city? Transit service has been REDUCED. Airlines have been REDUCED. Not only here but globally. Ditto hotels. As they told us, Day 1 #stayhome.
This is about ending travel, setting 30% of the earth off limits to people (this is no secret).
Welcome to communism. You work. You go or stay home. End of story.

#107 Do we have all the facts on 07.03.20 at 9:30 am

#73 Steven Nicolle

In Canada 97% of the 8,640 deaths attributed to the Covid 19 virus fell within the 60 + age group and the majority of deaths involved individuals with one or more serious health concerns that had compromised their immune systems. Over 6,700 deaths attributed to the Covid 19 virus in Canada involved a long term care facility.

Tracking and reporting the number of people that tested positive for having the Covid 19 virus in their system only confirms what we have known from day one.

THE COVID 19 VIRUS IS EXTREMELY CONTAGIOUS

However the risk of death from the COVID 19 virus for healthy Canadians under 60 years of age is extremely low, as in less than 1.3 deaths per 10,000 people.

How low does a mortality rate have to be before the general population feels comfortable returning to a normal way of life.

There are far more effective ways of protecting our most vulnerable Citizens without destroying our economy and crushing the quality of life for those at low risk of death.

Focus on protecting our vulnerable citizens from further infection not on trying to stop the spread of a virus that infected only 3.4 % of the 2,850,000 Canadians tested to date.

If quality masks and social distancing will prevent the spread of Covid 19 to the most vulnerable then we should assure that they have access to the best masks possible and that the vulnerable maintain separation by avoiding large crowds until the Covid 19 virus runs its course.

Living four to a room in long term care facilities is not the best way of protecting the most vulnerable from Covid 19.

We need to do better!

#108 TurnerNation on 07.03.20 at 9:34 am

^ you must line up in this Communism . Always lines. Stand on your spot. No talking. No looking. Do not lookup from your smart phone. To transact commerce.
Your fellow human in the enemy, we have quotas and scarce supply now. Will they take your items ? Are they hoarding or having visitors over at home? Report them.
Only online group meetings are allowed in the New System. The big tech companies watching all of us and ‘keeping us safe’
In one week the world fell in WW3.

#109 Tater on 07.03.20 at 9:34 am

#87 JPN on 07.03.20 at 12:09 am
Tater, I see your on a tear again tonight.. good for you. Why is it you criticize or have remarks for everyone else other than contribute ? A few posts back you insinuated I was a terrible employer and missed my point completely on why a can’t hire employees due to CERB ? Once again.. criticize this post as I am convinced you will.. but lighten up.. Really .. what’s your deal anyway ?
————————————————————-

Faron and I had a pleasant exchange about the interplay between realized and implied volatility and the implications for the VIX, so that would be a contribution.

As for my insinuation that you’re a bad employer, you might be reading a bit too much into what I wrote. I said that CERB has exposed crappy employers. You could be in that category, but maybe not.

But I also asked some questions to see if you are, and you didn’t respond. So, to be clear, if you are trying to hire people and won’t guarantee them enough hours to out earn CERB, you might be a crappy employer.

If none of your employees will recommend to friends that they come work for you, you may be a crappy employer.

If you are bidding at $19 an hour and others are bidding higher, you’d be a crappy employer.

This blog is about markets and markets are about truths expressed via prices. The truth is, at $19 an hour, it’s not compelling for employees to work for you. You need to figure out why that is, and simply blaming CERB isn’t enough when the take home on working 37.5 hours a week for you should be 20% more than you’d get on CERB.

#110 Dharma Bum on 07.03.20 at 9:35 am

#103 MF

Society is opening. Finally. Complaining about the lockdown or the media is tiresome already. Just take the issue seriously, take all the precautions, and try to function -like the rest of us- in this world until this passes.
——————————————————————-

MF – please do not post reasonable and intelligent statements like this!

It makes it difficult for me to find fault with your posts and troll you when you write things that are true and that I agree with.

:-)

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.20 at 9:48 am

@#103 MF
“Oh yeah, I don’t think anyone cares about the Epstein story. No one ever did. No one buys any of the conspiracy theories attached to it either. He wasn’t a good guy and now he’s gone. Let’s move on already.”
+++

And you accuse me of having no empathy for my fellow man?

Epstein was an accused pedophile that killed himself in jail while under “24hr observation”….. no conspiracy there.
His “girlfriend” another extremely rich socialite in Epsteins circle of Princes and Presidents may be the next to fall.

I’m sure the US District Attorney is trying to hammer out a plea bargain with that jailbird….
“Decades in jail or names and dates….what’ll it be?”

#112 Looking up on 07.03.20 at 9:50 am

#103 MF

Society is opening. Finally. Complaining about the lockdown or the media is tiresome already. Just take the issue seriously, take all the precautions, and try to function -like the rest of us- in this world until this passes.

————————

Well said.

Just wear the damn masks and social distance and this will resolve fairly quickly. Just a small inconvenience.

The alternative is being stupidly defiant and having Covid keep coming back like what is going on in the us right now.

#113 Dharma Bum on 07.03.20 at 9:51 am

#77 Idiocy

Something to ponder for all of you optimists out there;

If even only 25 % of businesses fail and effectively have their capital / equity erased, from where will spring the pools of capital to replace them ( and the jobs they represent)?
——————————————————————-

There is plenty of capital waiting on the sidelines provided that the right opportunities with the right returns present themselves. In time, this capital will be deployed.

Businesses that failed during the pandemic were on the edge, as it is. The situation just nudged them over. They were not truly viable, long term. They were fooling themselves – living month to month – cheque to cheque – barely surviving. Zero staying power. Precariously existing.

New businesses will emerge in time to fill any voids that actually need filling. If they’re not missed, they were superfluous to begin with.

It’s the nature of business. Just follow the money.

#114 MF on 07.03.20 at 10:03 am

14 Dharma Bum on 07.03.20 at 9:35 am

Next time I’ll try harder I promise!

:)

MF

#115 Sail Away on 07.03.20 at 10:06 am

#106 Wrk.dover on 07.03.20 at 9:04 am

Maybe that should read “a serving of just caught”

Sorry, Sail Away

—————–

Not bad. I’d probably go with ‘a serving of freshly caught…’ for better flow, but you’re improving. Good to know I’m a positive influence.

#116 Sail Away on 07.03.20 at 10:08 am

#113 Tater on 07.03.20 at 9:34 am

—————–

Whoops! Haha

#117 TurnerNation on 07.03.20 at 10:18 am

I would not put too much stock in US social media accounts from ‘young people’. There are many many paid influencers. This is war for our minds this time, after all. They knew this back in 1928! 100 years to perfect it. His book:

“.In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.””
― Edward Bernays, Propaganda

—- The teachers – a fav topic in this comments section – wasted no time building a new palace:

“An application has recently been submitted to City planners seeking rezoning and Site Plan Approval to build a new 9,500 m2 office building for the Ontario Secondary School Teachers Federation (OSSTF).”

https://torontostoreys.com/new-osstf-office-building-proposed/

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.20 at 10:24 am

Boeing Chief steps down because someone today took offense to an article he wrote 33 years ago.

The politically correct thought police are digging back years to punish the transgressors.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN24334J

You’ve been warned.
To be safe.
Purge all articles/quotes/jokes/videos/ emails/ etc etc etc. you may have written/spoken or commented on over the last 50 years that may or may not be considered “non pc”.

#119 Sail Away on 07.03.20 at 10:32 am

#108 IHCTD9 on 07.03.20 at 9:20 am
#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.20 at 8:23 am

Torrential rain and 11c in the Lowerbrainland this am.
Its been a soggy May , June ( 8 weekends in a row of rain)and start of July.
Keep an eye out for major flood news in BC in the coming days and weeks.

——————

Send some of it our way. 35C in the shade yesterday, the thermometer hit 30 at 9:00 this am. Pond is down two feet, and the grass is starting to die off. Barely any rain this month, and when it comes it’s a short deluge that mostly runs off.

——————

Yep, never have I seen things grow like this year with all the summer rain. 10 years ago I planted a dozen Garry Oaks in our boulevard (because they’re protected trees and it would require an act of God for the city to ever remove them, haha). In March, they ranged from 6-8 feet tall. Now they’re all 10-14′.

#120 Sail Away on 07.03.20 at 10:53 am

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.20 at 10:24 am

Boeing Chief steps down because someone today took offense to an article he wrote 33 years ago.

——————

I continue to wait for the hero who refuses to apologize and refuses to step down even after the pitchforks appear.

Actually, there is one…

#121 whiplash on 07.03.20 at 10:56 am

The Houston Association of Realtors have eliminated the term “master bedroom/master bathroom” from their MLS listings. Hopefully when they do a showing no one left out the Aunt Jemima syrup!!

#122 Sail Away on 07.03.20 at 11:05 am

#94 fused on 07.03.20 at 2:56 am
#23 Sail Away

One would hope that posters here were trolling, sales that good and sitting in cash waiting for the reset. These will be the same people time and time again buying in near the top getting wiped out at the bottom and complaining about the game being rigged.
I am still picking up junior oil companies and waiting for covid to pass and then for oil to roar back, starting to pick at food supply and infrastructure now in anticipation of shortages this winter. Since people are freaked out of the covid on foreign workers and they themselves do not want to pick food it will be a lucrative feedback loop if one positions themselves properly.

——————

I continue to sit on my hands but am watching the 5G. Divvies are stockpiling.

#123 OK, Doomer on 07.03.20 at 11:13 am

There is always a story behind the story of who wants the land. Here’s an example about the Lakota’s claim to the Black Hills in South Dakota. It dovetails into the Democrats spittle-filled condemnation of Donald Trump attending a 4th of July celebration at Mount Rushmore.

And the Radical left’s desire to tear down Mt. Rushmore.

“Although some say they occupied that area in the year 1500 to 1530 AD, we do know that the Arikara Indian nation arrived there around 1100 AD. After reading about the Arikara, it is pretty much a given that they had the Black Hills first — and the longest. Long before everyone else. If there are people who want to give the Black Hills “back to the Indians” as the saying goes, then it should be to the right tribe. Yes, the right tribe.

The Arikara in the Black Hills was followed by the Crow, Pawnee, Kiowa, Cheyenne, Lakota, and then the United States. The Lakota arrived in the region after getting kicked out of Minnesota in the late 1770s by other tribes. The Lakota took over the region after they drove out the Cheyenne Indian nation. The Sioux forced the Cheyenne to move West. ”

http://www.americancowboychronicles.com/2015/04/the-last-tribe-to-get-black-hills.html

If anyone knows of a square inch of land anywhere on the planet (other than Antarctica) that was not fought over, stolen, or sold by multiple competing groups, tribes, clans, families, peoples, creeds, races or ethnicities, please post a link.

Otherwise, it can only be concluded that coveting thy neighbors land, by whatever means, is just a condition of the human race and that our ancestors we have all been on both sides of that coin.

#124 IHCTD9 on 07.03.20 at 11:14 am

#124 Sail Away on 07.03.20 at 10:53 am
#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.20 at 10:24 am

Boeing Chief steps down because someone today took offense to an article he wrote 33 years ago.

——————

I continue to wait for the hero who refuses to apologize and refuses to step down even after the pitchforks appear.

Actually, there is one…
—-

Looks only like a single individual complaint too.

Hopefully his contract allows for a tasty payout…

#125 A bud in the Cariboo ... on 07.03.20 at 11:23 am

#123 Sail Away on 07.03.20 at 10:32 am
Yep, never have I seen things grow like this year with all the summer rain.
———————————————-
say’s he has never seen a crop of hay like this one but he hopes it doesn’t freeze before it dries out. Hope the rancher’s get it in this year …

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.20 at 11:27 am

How does one say “eating crow” in french?

https://vancouversun.com/news/canada/trudeau-government-drops-912-million-contract-with-we-charity/wcm/f495721a-44a6-4b5d-9146-58eb45f9a6b9/

#127 Faron on 07.03.20 at 11:38 am

#124 Sail Away

Maduso? Xi? Un? Putin? Trump? The sherrif of Klickitat county? Soumds like you are looking for a big, strong man to scratch that itch no one else can.

#128 Sail Away on 07.03.20 at 11:56 am

#90 VicPaul on 07.03.20 at 1:18 am

Hoisted on your own pitard, perhaps?

————

It’s ‘petard’ you ritard.

#129 Attrition on 07.03.20 at 12:13 pm


#52 Sail away on 07.02.20 at 7:20 pm

#28 Attrition on 07.02.20 at 5:44 pm

More sick people is never good–who could argue with that. But I guess I’m stuck on what ‘more’ actually means.

—————–

Hey, Attrition: I’ve stopped paying attention to the theme/scheme of the day.

Humans love watching a train wreck. If one doesn’t happen, they turn to religion or war or scary stories to create one. This gives the adrenalin rush, dopamine hit, moral imperative, good vs. bad, rules for assimilation, and ultimately… catharsis.

So… this train wreck has gained momentum and we’re going to have it whether it’s real or not. My procedure has shifted from fruitless head banging to vultchy opportunism. People are so silly. Glad I’m not one of them.

Wise words Sail. Ya, every once in a while I have to remember to stop caring about the wrong things. Not because there is no hope, but because having hope is pointless.

Climate change can be proven a lie and a hoax, Covid can be proven a massive over reaction and power grab, the Russia hoax can be proven a hoax, and on and on and on, and the % of people willing or able to change their thinking in the face of new evidence remains unchanged.

On the plus side, I guess that puts a few of us in the true 1% club.

#130 jess on 07.03.20 at 12:15 pm

Boeing’s CEO steps down, and shares go up
golden parachute. Dec 23, 2019

Boeing’s CEO is resigning ? or fired what no severance what an outrage!
-$62 million US in compensation and pension benefits

Boeing, 1985-2019
Dennis Muilenburg joined Boeing in 1985. He served as president from December 2013 to December 2019, as CEO from July 2015 to December 2019, and as chairman of the board from March 2016 to October 2019

Boeing CEO Dennis A. Muilenburg was fired Monday, a week after the company announced it planned to suspend production of its troubled 737 Max airplanes, which were grounded after two crashes killed 346 people.Dec 23, 2019
===========

The Long-Forgotten Flight That Sent Boeing Off Course

A company once driven by engineers became driven by finance.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/how-boeing-lost-its-bearings/602188/

#131 BoredBear on 07.03.20 at 12:20 pm

@SailAway #124 “I continue to wait for the hero who refuses to apologize and refuses to step down even after the pitchforks appear.

Actually, there is one… ”

And who might your hero be? Do tell.

#132 Ace Goodheart on 07.03.20 at 12:29 pm

Trudeau just got his hand slapped, big time.

Will “Me to We” be the scandal that finally brings down the teflon boy wonder?

Me thinks that this is just getting started.

Was Trudeau really told by Canada’s public service, that they could not run the grant program and that no one other than “We” would be able to do it?

What is really in that contract that they are trying so hard not to release.

Juicy, juicy, juicy.

This could get very interesting…..

#133 Blog Bunny on 07.03.20 at 12:36 pm

God bless President Trump!

My last message on social media/blogs here. I am joining a religious order for my own sanity. No watching news allowed. No more crooked Hilary, slow Joe or Occasional Cortex. Now I am going to get lost on some amazing hikes and climbs in the Rocky Mountains. People pray for me.

#134 TurnerNation on 07.03.20 at 12:37 pm

I was told this first hand today: someone’s family member in Europe, not young, quite overweight and in poor health/heart issues. In 40c weather passed out and passed away inside a hot building. The cause of death was noted as, you guessed it. CV.
Again this was told to me by someone I trust

#135 Damifino on 07.03.20 at 12:54 pm

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz

Boeing Chief steps down because someone today took offense to an article he wrote 33 years ago.
——————————–

The Boeing Chief’s stance had a historic rationale. All other things being equal, it made more sense to send men into battle (I’m talking hand-to-hand combat here) simply because men are more expendable than women from an evolutionary perceptive.

Most able-bodied young women can birth only a single child at a time while most men (able bodied or not) can sire many children at once. Which did it therefore make more sense to risk in battle? Which strategy put a victorious society in a superior position to recover after the carnage of war? That was certainly what a well-known 20th century war monger believed.

The Boeing guy’s problem was twofold. He was: 1. Out of touch, and… 2. Out of time… and, 3. He became the unwitting victim of a SJW researcher.

He thought (33 years ago) that men had the exclusive right to combat roles because it somehow made them feel important. A dumb reason, but hey, who can blame men after centuries as the exclusive source of cannon fodder?

It’s all moot now since most would agree a women can trudge trough a desert, slash through a jungle or operate an automatic weapon as effectively as a men. Nor do most warring nations have much trouble on the population front these days.

Thus, all those brave, able-bodied Jacks and Jills alike should be welcomed into the forces to do whatever their commending officer tells them. Who, by the way, might be either male or female.

#136 Sail Away on 07.03.20 at 1:03 pm

#137 Blog Bunny on 07.03.20 at 12:36 pm

I am joining a religious order for my own sanity.

—————

Never have I ever seen a more discordant sentence.

#137 Penny Henny on 07.03.20 at 1:06 pm

Since this is a dog blog I have a short story to relate to you all.
Just over a month ago a friend of mine started to notice that his dog was starting to act in the most peculiar way. Every time my friend would lie down his dog would start licking his head.
Now my friend took the upmost care of any dog he ever owed so he booked an appointment to take the dog to the vet to get checked.
Before the appointment came my friend collapsed and was taken to the hospital. He died there two weeks later. It was diagnosed that he had four tumors in his brain.

#138 G on 07.03.20 at 2:52 pm

Hi #103 MF,

I guess I didn’t mention in that post that I do think the CCP virus (I mean COVID-19) is real, very bad and deadly for some. I do not wise it upon anyone. As you mentioned you don’t know if/when you catch it what the outcome will be. For small % it’s bad and deadly.

I wear a mask when out shopping to do my bit. I had a couple N95 masks for doing things before, so I use them now to shop.
I do what I can to boost my immune system, hoping my case is one of the mild ones when I get it.
I’ve shared links I thought might help others, YouTube MedCram is one.

Believe me, I was freaking out about the virus in Jan before the MSN was on it. Since learning about things like tonic water with zinc, and other vitamins and the 3 Meds combo talked about in first link in #85, I stopped freaking out as much. I’m still worried, so do what I can to not catch it, but odds are at some point I’ll come in contact with it. With luck my immune system will be ready to deal with it naturally. And if need be there will still be available medical help for anyone needing some. I thought that was the whole point of the shutdown, slowing the spread, to flatten the curve, was so the medical system wouldn’t be overwhelmed, so there would be as few deaths as possible, if you were in the % of the really sick. Flattening the curve doesn’t mean people wouldn’t get it, just not all at once. Thankfully most people don’t die. The fact it causes long term damage to some people is concerning and unfortunate. I hope they can recover much of their lost health, sooner than later. Sound like some won’t be 100% for a long time, if ever. Seems early treatment with the 3 drug combo $20. helps most a lot, see link in #85.

Re: Epstein. Since the arrest just happened I mentioned, I hope Maxwell “doesn’t kill herself”.
I didn’t mention Epstein. But don’t they and their accusers/alleged victims deserve their day in court too. I thought we all did, but some think there are more equal than others it seems.

I heard Bill Bar say something in an interview last week, something like, about trying to serve equal justice for all, and he didn’t think that has always been the case the last few year.
I’m hopeful, that sounds good, but I’m not holding my breath.

Your, “No one buys any of the conspiracy theories”.
Let them have their day in court and see where the facts lead. You said yourself, “He wasn’t a good guy”. If someone was saying the same about you, wouldn’t you want your day in court to set the record straight? I would. Why would you kill yourself before your day in court if you did nothing wrong. Is it the old saying, dead men tell know tails in play. If the allegations are true, whom else befits from his death. Not the victims who wanted their day in court.
Maybe the people that know them had no idea about what was allegedly taking place? So let’s clear the air in a court of law, under oath. I’m sure the innocent would agree. I wonder what happened to all the alleged tapes that were on the island. Any copies with the police, I wonder.

You might not be, but some throw out the term “conspiracy theories” as a way to shut down thought. And it seems to work most of the time. Who really has the time to check? I thought the press checked, but the older I get the less I am sure that is always happening.

#139 The Watcher ... Fourth Post on 07.03.20 at 3:57 pm

#141 Penny Henny

Since this is a dog blog I have a short story to relate to you all.
Just over a month ago a friend of mine started to notice that his dog was starting to act in the most peculiar way. Every time my friend would lie down his dog would start licking his head.
Now my friend took the upmost care of any dog he ever owed so he booked an appointment to take the dog to the vet to get checked.
Before the appointment came my friend collapsed and was taken to the hospital. He died there two weeks later. It was diagnosed that he had four tumors in his brain.

——————————————————————

Did they count it as a Covid 19 death ?

#140 Looking up on 07.03.20 at 5:51 pm

#112 TurnerNation on 07.03.20 at 9:34 am
^ you must line up in this Communism . Always lines. Stand on your spot. No talking. No looking. Do not lookup from your smart phone. To transact commerce.
Your fellow human in the enemy, we have quotas and scarce supply now. Will they take your items ? Are they hoarding or having visitors over at home? Report them.
Only online group meetings are allowed in the New System. The big tech companies watching all of us and ‘keeping us safe’
In one week the world fell in WW3.

———————-

Wow. Just wow.

#141 Midnights on 07.03.20 at 7:47 pm

The polls are skewed; they asked more Democrat’s in the polls compared to Republicans.

Maybe there are more of them. – Garth

#142 Midnights on 07.03.20 at 8:11 pm

Lmbo, one always believes what one wants lol. They inevitably get more air time.

#143 Midnights on 07.03.20 at 8:15 pm

Lol.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/03/opinion/dukakis-has-some-advice-biden-dont-take-those-polls-seriously/

#144 Mark on 07.03.20 at 11:25 pm

We are in a global depression.