Elections and the markets

RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

.

In the very immediate future, the US presidential election is about to kick-in to high gear and will be a focal point for investors and the markets. Currently, investor focus is on COVID and new infection rates, the reopening of the US/global economy, the unrest in the US, and all the government stimulus announcements. However, soon investors and the markets will be turning their attention to the US election and what the outcome could portend for the economy and equity markets. In this week’s post I examine the historical impact of presidents on the US equity markets and review the key policies that could impact the US economy, equity markets and Canada.

Currently, Trump is on his back heels with Biden being the clear front runner based on numerous polls and betting websites. Below are the current odds of winning the Electoral College from The Economist. Based on their models they have Biden winning 341 electoral votes to Trump’s 197 votes, and have Biden at an 85% probability of winning the Electoral College and becoming the 46th US president.

Now a lot can change from now till then, and as we saw in the 2017 election, polls don’t always get it right. But given these current readings and Trump’s recent setbacks (e.g., handling of the pandemic, the ongoing recession, and his response to the recent protests), I believe Trump faces an uphill battle to securing a second term. This is not a political statement, rather my current assessment of the US presidential race.

What are the implications of a Biden win (if I’m right) or a Trump win (if I’m wrong)?

Chance of Winning the Electoral College

Source: The Economist

There is a commonly held view that the US equity markets perform better under republican control given the party’s focus on lower taxes, deregulations, and overall being more business friendly. Well the facts don’t support this thesis, as based on my analysis, the equity markets have performed better under democratic presidents.

Below is a great chart that illustrates this. I calculated the average performance of the S&P 500 over the four-year president term since 1945 under both democratic and republican presidents. The results are surprising. On average, the S&P 500 has gained 56% (price return only) under a democratic president versus 27% under a republican president.

Now it’s important to stress that luck and circumstances also plays a role in these returns. For example, President Obama took over after a terrible bear market under Bush II, and saw great returns over his 8-year term in office. But even with this, given the numbers we’re dealing with (8 democratic and 9 republican presidents) this is a decent sample size, and I believe has some investment merit.

Key point here is, don’t jump to conclusions and think that if Biden pulls out the win and becomes the next US President that the stock market and economy are going to go into the crapper. In fact, this analysis shows quite the opposite.

S&P 500 Performance under Different US Presidents

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments. Based on S&P 500 data from 1945 to present

The most significant impact to the equity markets, should Biden win in November could be with corporate tax rates and their impact on corporate earnings. Biden proposes raising the US corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, reversing some of the huge Trump tax cuts that went into effect in 2018 (Trump and the republicans cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%).

If Biden wins and is able to pass this legislation then this will surely impact corporate profitability, which is a key long-term driver of equity returns.

Expectations for S&P 500 earnings next year are $162/share, which equates to a 29 Y/Y growth rate, based on 2020 estimates of $125/share. If Biden hikes tax rates then this could shave off 5% or $9-10/share in earnings next year. Basically, this could cut potential earnings growth from 29% Y/Y to 22% next year, which doesn’t help stock prices.

The upside of these tax cuts (assuming he doesn’t just redirect all the higher tax revenue to increased spending) would help to cut their massive deficit, which is a big concern of mine.

All else equal, a Biden corporate tax hike would be negative for US stocks, if enacted.

Next up is China, which is critically important as it appears that a cold war is brewing between these two competing, hegemonic nations. Trump has taken a very hardline approach (some of it I agree with) with China through aggressive trade policies and tariff increases. I do see some long-term benefits of these aggressive moves (e.g., onshoring manufacturing, having more control over supply lines) but Trump’s strongman approach brings some negative reactions as well as there is greater uncertainty, and global tensions, which is never good for the economy and stock markets. We saw numerous market declines over Trump’s first term, which were a byproduct of his aggressive moves with China.

While I don’t see Biden as a pushover, I think he would take a less hostile and combative approach than Trump with China, which I see as a positive for the US/global economy and equity markets.

Lastly, a Biden win would be bad for our already battered energy sector, as he’s been very direct about his opposition to TC Energy’s (TransCanada) Keystone pipeline, a position shared by his old boss President Obama. Biden recently stated “I’ve been against Keystone from the beginning. It is tarsands that we don’t need — that in fact is very, very high pollutant,” in an interview with CNBC. It wouldn’t be a death blow to our energy sector, especially with TransMountain gearing up, but it definitely wouldn’t help it either.

I see pros and cons for both Biden and Trump on the economy and markets (my focus on this blog is finance and investments and I try to leave my political opinions/biases aside), and I see the US election playing a bigger role in the media and markets in the coming months. A lot’s at stake in this upcoming election so it’s going to be interesting. Buckle up!

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

132 comments ↓

#1 conan on 06.20.20 at 10:04 am

Pretty sure we are 100 % locked in on the Trumpenberg scenario.

#2 jal on 06.20.20 at 10:09 am

I think that the biggest reason for the market being up is the printing press. (The MMT that is happening)

#3 Danny Partridge on 06.20.20 at 10:20 am

First. I must be first…..

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.20 at 10:21 am

Interesting insights.
I would take a Biden Presidency over the Toxic Trump any day of the week.
Trump speaks and protests erupt.
He needs to be voted out and sent packing back to his tv shows. A horrible man.
Canada will suffer either way but hopefully Trudeau will be sent packing as well.

Good analysis Ryan, now go back to the pool and turn up the A/C.

#5 David McDonald on 06.20.20 at 10:22 am

Thank you for the reasonable and balanced analysis. A couple days ago Garth said money had no place to go but equities and now you are saying the election is no big risk. I should be confident my investments are safe but I still am gripped by fear that we are headed into a deep recession.

#6 NFN_NLN on 06.20.20 at 10:29 am

Are you sure about those polling numbers Garth?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Hillary 85% – Trump 15%, lol

#7 NFN_NLN on 06.20.20 at 10:32 am

> There is a commonly held view that the US equity markets perform better under republican control

Are you sure about that? The leftist seems to be creating a vibrant new community in the Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone. Perhaps we can bring this model to Canada:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhdLK0Bu1iI

We could eliminate poverty through looting.

#8 NFN_NLN on 06.20.20 at 10:38 am

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.20 at 10:21 am

Trump speaks and protests erupt.

Translation: Democrats burn and loot their own cities as antifa hijacks protests.

Never stop your enemy when they are making a mistake. These looters and rioters are creating new republican voters in former democratic strongholds.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5uSQxbNzPo&

#9 the Jaguar on 06.20.20 at 10:39 am

I must respectfully disagree. Not with your financial analysis. I accede to your expertise in that matter. However, Sleepy Old Joe will not be winning the election in November. Why?

1-Blowback. The silent majority who crave law and order will show up at the polls, and you don’t have to be a genius to figure out which political party has fanned the flames of looting, burning, statue toppling, and other mayhem we’ve all borne witness to recently. A lot of Americans favour Trumps policies on immigration, holding China accountable, and bringing jobs and supply chains back to North America. Covid 19 only reinforced those feelings. Polls be damned.
2-Biden is unfit to govern and as the final campaign months ramp up this will be evident to all. Biden and his son Hunter are also corrupt and Trump has the dossiers ready to expose them at the appropriate moment. Dossiers are on standby in the tall grass.
3-Durham Report is going to come out very soon and will expose the coup d’ etat and all those complicit. The Dem’s are going to look worse than ever.
4-Americans love a winner. That’s Trumps brand. Biden doesn’t have a brand other than career politician known primarily for pretty much nothing.

Orange Man by a landslide.

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.20 at 10:39 am

@#3 Danny Partridge
“First. I must be first…..”
++++

Sorry Danny, your brother Keith was always first…

#11 dogman01 on 06.20.20 at 10:41 am

Not sure if anyone posted this link yesterday on this wide ranging blog:

https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/the-nova-scotia-shooter-case-has-hallmarks-of-an-undercover-operation/

$475,000 Cash in black duffel picked up at Brinks…by the Nova Scotia shooter…..wow.

#12 Prairieboy43 on 06.20.20 at 10:45 am

My $$$ on Trump. Therefore no change in Markets. Do you think if Biden wins, there won’t be protests and Marches. This fight won’t be fought by words. Democrats have shown the American population what are acceptable guidelines (24/7/365 protest,anti conservative). Trumpians won’t forget. Stamp it.
PB43

#13 Edmonton Dave on 06.20.20 at 10:59 am

Hi Ryan, remember the polls that said Hilary was going to clean Trump big time ??? Reliable, eh ???
Anyone who actually believes Hiding Joe Biden can beat Trump is lapping up propaganda, plain and simple. Biden is too far left leaning for average Americans and has unpopular opinions. Defund the Police anyone ??? Green New Deal, etc. Throw in some cognitive decline and Hiding Biden will be the biggest embarrassment ever when he tries to debate Trump. Want to see the markets crash, elect Democrats.
I believe my American relatives when they say that they don’t like Trump on a personal basis, but love his economic results of the last three plus years. Covid 19 awakened the “made in the USA”, formerly known as patriotism. They get Trump’s message loud and clear.

Biden offers higher taxes, fewer police, and green initiatives that kill jobs.

Americans vote with their wallets and purses, and realize Trump is their best choice. They get it too. Trump 2020.

#14 Ace Goodheart on 06.20.20 at 11:04 am

Biden has connections to the green energy billionaires.

If he wins economies around the world will suffer.

Here’s why:

Historically rich folk have gotten that way by controlling a product consumed by the masses, and selling it in individual quantities for more than it cost them to produce it/purchase it in bulk.

This includes IPOs of companies. Stock is worth more in individual units than the company is worth as a whole.

Enter the green energy billionaires. They have a new idea. Why bother obtaining the product before you sell it? Who cares who owns it? You can make billions off of something than no one owns. Something that no one (other than plants) actually wants.

What is that something?

Carbon dioxide.

Convince the lefties that we are in an environmental emergency. Convince them the world will end if we don’t do something. This is remarkably easy to do. Lefties love to protest. It doesn’t matter what. Any cause will do.

Take control of a left wing global organization. The UN will do fine.

Then sell something you don’t own. Carbon dioxide permission slips.

If you want to put CO2 into the atmosphere, you have to buy a permission. From the UN. Which is controlled by the green energy billionaires.

And voila. The biggest business coup d’etat ever. Done by left wing billionaires. Re-writing the book on business.

Sell something you don’t even own.

All you need are left wing governments. Like Trudeau’s band of enviro lefties.

Or Joe Biden……

#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.20 at 11:08 am

@#11 dogman1

Wow!

I read the article and then the one below it.

Wow!

#16 Yukon Elvis on 06.20.20 at 11:09 am

#8 NFN_NLN on 06.20.20 at 10:38 am
Translation: Democrats burn and loot their own cities as antifa hijacks protests.
Never stop your enemy when they are making a mistake. These looters and rioters are creating new republican voters in former democratic strongholds.

#9 the Jaguar on 06.20.20 at 10:39 am
1-Blowback. The silent majority who crave law and order will show up at the polls, and you don’t have to be a genius to figure out which political party has fanned the flames of looting, burning, statue toppling, and other mayhem we’ve all borne witness to recently.
……………………………………

Give these guys a cigar.

#17 JacqueShellacque on 06.20.20 at 11:12 am

I think rather than predicting who might win and trying to judge what will happen to equities from that (based on probably spurious ‘correlations’ from the past), it might be better to consider more general scenarios that would result in volatility and drops and try to protect against that.

It will probably matter less who wins than how it plays out. Recount battles and weeks without a president-elect (very plausible, and possibly with violence added in as well this time unlike 2000) would wreak havoc on equities. I think it would be very prudent to consider this possibility and hedge against it – keeping contributions made between now and election day (and possibly beyond) in cash, or if you’re daring puts against NASDAQ or S&P 500 that expire sometime after election day. Conversely, a convincing win for either candidate would probably be looked on by markets as favorable (other things equal of course).

One thing that seems likely is that Biden will be less and less visible as election day draws near. It’s clear he’s just a name on the ballot and the hope is simply that enough voters in swing states will move away from Trump to deny him the electoral college (keep in mind he the electoral college by getting wins in WI, PA, and MI by a combined 70,000 votes). So one must consider another possible source of volatility associated with a Biden win – in-term succession to VP. That’s why predictions are bad – they represent only what someone thinks will be the state at a given point in the future, ignoring what that state might imply.

#18 Felix on 06.20.20 at 11:17 am

Hello Furriends

It’s Caturday! All day!

https://twitter.com/hashtag/caturday

#19 Damifino on 06.20.20 at 11:18 am

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz

Canada will suffer either way but hopefully Trudeau will be sent packing as well.
——————————–

Amen to that, brother.

We need some adults in the room more than ever.

#20 IHCTD9 on 06.20.20 at 11:36 am

Those that like to read about guys roughing it out in the wilderness might find this interesting

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/into-the-wild-bus-alaska-helicopter-1.5618746

Too many rescues required and people dead trying to reach the “magic bus” where McCandless died of starvation after 114 days trying to live off the land in the Alaska back country.

I’m sure Sail Away knows this guy’s story. This one is only slightly less horrifying than the Timothy Treadwell story…

#21 Sail Away on 06.20.20 at 11:52 am

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.20 at 10:39 am
@#3 Danny Partridge

“First. I must be first…..”

——————

Sorry Danny, your brother Keith was always first…

——————

But if you sit in a pear tree, you’ll always be first in the song.

#22 Cdn Mom on 06.20.20 at 12:03 pm

DELETED

#23 Flop... on 06.20.20 at 12:07 pm

Markets?

Ah, whatever happens, happens.

I’m going to lobby all my family down there in the U.S to vote for the guy that will allow me to visit the country 3 times a year.

2020 is looking like a bust, travel wise.

Let Flop In 2021, lawn signs now available…

M46BC

#24 Sail Away on 06.20.20 at 12:17 pm

#20 IHCTD9 on 06.20.20 at 11:36 am
Those that like to read about guys roughing it out in the wilderness might find this interesting

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/into-the-wild-bus-alaska-helicopter-1.5618746

Too many rescues required and people dead trying to reach the “magic bus” where McCandless died of starvation after 114 days trying to live off the land in the Alaska back country.

I’m sure Sail Away knows this guy’s story. This one is only slightly less horrifying than the Timothy Treadwell story…

—————–

Yep, young ideological guy (18) tries to live off the land without skill or preparation. Brings .22, shoots baby moose, most of it rots due to lack of knowledge. Gets continually weaker during most productive time of the year, eats wrong plant, river too high to cross, dies in bus probably combo of starvation and plant toxins.

A book was written and he was romanticized a bit so people hike out to the old bus. The river crossing is temperamental and sometimes kills tourists.

Lots of these type stories in Alaska. Often they involve fools, damn fools, and idealists. Treadwell as a case in point.

#25 Dirty Dan on 06.20.20 at 12:19 pm

#11 dogman01 on 06.20.20 at 10:41 am
Not sure if anyone posted this link yesterday on this wide ranging blog:

https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/the-nova-scotia-shooter-case-has-hallmarks-of-an-undercover-operation/

====

Excellent find dogman01, more people need to see this.

Absolutely appalling.

Is Trudeau going to backtrack the firearms confiscation built on this lie?

If only the people would wake up to what is happening in Canada.

#26 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.20.20 at 12:25 pm

#14 Ace Goodheart on 06.20.20 at 11:04 am

Then sell something you don’t own. Carbon dioxide permission slips.

===================================
Another Fraud that we all pay for, however much smaller, it costs the world billions per year at the cash register.

UPC Bar code numbers. From the GS1 organization.

Businesses have to pay thousands per year to keep their right to use their bar code number.

There are GS1 agencies in 115 countries milking businesses for something that is essentially free and costs almost nothing to administer.

I believe that whoever gets the rights in each country to perpetrate this fraud must have to kick back plenty to the government in power at the time.

In Canada the book bar codes which are called ISBN are administered by one person in the Canadian government and a nice lady answers the phone and asks you how many ISBN numbers do you need? Then you get them for free. Anyone who has written a book must do this. It is easy to get and totally free.

How do they justify the fraud of billing thousands every year to businesses for something that is free?

#27 Don Guillermo on 06.20.20 at 12:32 pm

#9 the Jaguar on 06.20.20 at 10:39 am
I must respectfully disagree. Not with your financial analysis. I accede to your expertise in that matter. However, Sleepy Old Joe will not be winning the election in November. Why?

4-Americans love a winner. That’s Trumps brand. Biden doesn’t have a brand other than career politician known primarily for pretty much nothing.
Orange Man by a landslide.

*************************************
I watched Larry Elder on the Rubin Report link you provided yesterday. At one point he says many in Americas black culture love Trumps swagger and winning attitude as well. Great interview, Thanks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFqVNPwsLNo

#28 UmiouiuS on 06.20.20 at 12:57 pm

Wow..!!
As its been pointed out to me, if a Covid-19 outbreak occurs 14 days after to-day’s Oklahoma Trump rally, casualties will begin to tally on July 4th..!! Yikes..!!

https://youtu.be/VhunFfuB4y4

#29 Linda on 06.20.20 at 1:00 pm

I have to agree that a Biden win would be a blow to the energy sector IF Biden does indeed pull the plug on Keystone. For Alberta, it would be yet another black mark for the current government, as Premier Kenney & crew have allocated $6 billion in taxpayer funds to support Keystone construction. Given that Covid has had a negative impact on the economy due to dropping energy prices from lower demand this means they will not be able to deliver the promised ponies & rainbows to the electorate.

#30 Cdn Mom on 06.20.20 at 1:04 pm

#22 … DELETED? Wow

Which were so atrocious?
Fast and Furious?
A political candidate that clearly has some “communication issues”?
Political coverups?
Corruption in politics?

When you accuse a public figure of having a medical condition (with no proof) you earn a quick delete. – Garth

#31 Sail Away on 06.20.20 at 1:12 pm

#12 Prairieboy43 on 06.20.20 at 10:45 am

Do you think if Biden wins, there won’t be protests and Marches.

—————-

No, no there won’t. Because the right is not batshit crazy. When aligning myself with ideologies, I try to choose the one that offers the least attraction or encouragement to sensationalism.

#32 NFN_NLN on 06.20.20 at 1:32 pm

#30 Cdn Mom on 06.20.20 at 1:04 pm

When you accuse a public figure of having a medical condition (with no proof) you earn a quick delete. – Garth

Don’t worry Cdn mom, we have your back.

The below statements are factually true and in the context of current activities are undeniably relevant.

If Black Lives Matter then people should be aware that “Joe Biden didn’t just compromise with segregationists. He fought for their cause in schools, experts say.
Joe Biden helped give America the language that is still used to oppose school integration today, legislative and education history experts say.”

Not my words, but a direct quote from experts in an NBC News piece linked below.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/joe-biden-didn-t-just-compromise-segregationists-he-fought-their-n1021626

I could also bring up a DIRECT broadcast quote from BIDEN himself in an interview with Charlemange that demonstrates his views have NOT changed. Unfortunately, the statement is so outrageous other social media sites ban it, further proving how damaging his views really are.

You don’t need to agree with Trump, but you shouldn’t agree with what the left has become both in the US and Canada.

#33 Gravy Train on 06.20.20 at 1:34 pm

#6 NFN_NLN on 06.20.20 at 10:29 am
“Are you sure about those polling numbers Garth?
Hillary 85% – Trump 15%, lol” Those are about the same chances as surviving one game of Russian roulette (83.3% vs. 16.7%). I still wouldn’t ever play the game—even with five-to-one odds in my favour! :P

#34 hoy boy on 06.20.20 at 1:51 pm

#167 SoggyShorts on 06.13.20 at 11:53 am
#155 Willie the WASP on 06.13.20 at 9:03 am
#71 IHCTD9 on 06.12.20 at 5:16 pm
Give me an example of Canadian white privilege.
Something solid please.
————————————————————–
Two questions for you. Are you using the term white syonymously with the term WASP? Second, if you are, are you stating that WASP privilige has never existed in Canada?
******************************
“Never existed”? Irrelevant to the conversation. The issue is whether there is a current problem.
If there is a current problem it should be addressed.

At some point, the past needs to be left in the past since most people aren’t super interested in paying for the sins of our ancestors.

Also, Canada being such a land of immigrants poses a huge problem for ideas like reparations since no one is interested in paying for the sins of other peoples ancestors.
E.G.
♦My grandparents were forced off their lands and out of Yugoslavia and had to walk to Austria.
♦Later they got on a boat and came to Canada.
♦Much later I was born in Canada.

Now I (through taxes) should pay money to the descendants of native Canadians because other Canadian settlers did things before anyone of my bloodline even got here?

Perhaps a better way forward is to take race out of the equation and simply help those less fortunate based on current circumstances regardless of ancestry.
It might turn out to be the same people getting help, but it’s certainly an easier pill for me to swallow if I’m not being blamed for something I didn’t do.

—————————————–

Why should native people not have their land because your ancestors gained it?

#35 The Woosh on 06.20.20 at 2:08 pm

#9 the Jaguar

——————————————

Have an original thought. Stop being a parrot please.

#36 Ryan Lewenza on 06.20.20 at 2:18 pm

Edmonton Dave “Hi Ryan, remember the polls that said Hilary was going to clean Trump big time ??? Reliable, eh ??? Anyone who actually believes Hiding Joe Biden can beat Trump is lapping up propaganda, plain and simple. Biden is too far left leaning for average Americans and has unpopular opinions. Defund the Police anyone ??? Green New Deal, etc. Throw in some cognitive decline and Hiding Biden will be the biggest embarrassment ever when he tries to debate Trump. Want to see the markets crash, elect Democrats.”

Yes I remember the polls from the last election and referenced them in my post. I don’t think it’s a lock that Biden will win, but I definitely don’t think it’s a lock that Trump will win either. There are a number of counterpoints to your argument like 1) we could see a higher turnout from liberals/democrats due to the racial tensions/protests that you believe will just bring out voters for “law and order”, 2) Biden is leading in key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania etc, 3) Trumps approval rating among women is the lowest level over his presidency, 4) the economy is in the tank right now, 5) his handling of COVID has hurt him (as evidenced by his declining approval ratings) and 6) I believe the protests and unrest hurt him more than they help him. Again I’m just looking at the different poll numbers and observing that the last few months have not been good for Trump and making a call based on that. I’m trying to leave my own personal views aside in making the call that the odds are stacked against Trump come Nov. And just think, if I’m wrong you get the opportunity to highlight this and say I missed it again. – Ryan L

#37 Kang and Kodos Johnson on 06.20.20 at 2:52 pm

As usual, predictions are a waste of time, especially if your choice is between Kang or Kodos. Trump in one year has spent more than Obama in 8. He will add 10T in New debt this year. And you’re worried about who is next in office. Who cares. The FED will eventually resort to yield curve control to limit government expenditures on interest. And they will continue to blow up their balance sheet to 15?20?trillion+? Inflation will skyrocket with all the liquidity pushed into the economy. Nobody cares who the clown in charge is going to be …

#38 The Great White North on 06.20.20 at 3:14 pm

MARK my words, TRUMPY WILL WIN AGAIN.

So the pandemic will last four more years.

For all the phoney “liberals” you will eat your heart out…

The best psy-ops in modern history, in one clean swoop CHINA destroyed the WEST with the help of WHO, idiotic govts, a corrupted western political class, Democrats and last but not least the reviled MSM – main stream media…

What a motley crew of dunces…to induce a WW depression for the big nothing.

To put people in hospitals with no symptoms, ORWELLIAN, they are playing the BOOMERS’ mind, tell them that they will die and they will eat out of your palm… You make them your silly putty…lol

#39 Flop... on 06.20.20 at 3:15 pm

Hey Rhino, I found this line interesting.

“Currently, Trump is on his back heels.”

How many heels do you have?

What about Robax?

After seeing Doug Rowat’s legs last week I’m wondering if Garth has a hiring fetish.

Is that from too much desk time?

I can see his autobiography now.

‘The Man With No Calves’….How Doug Rowat made it to the top of Bay Street, despite getting the 2 for 1 leg deal.

I’ve got some messed up legs, so maybe I can get a job shredding documents or something…

M46BC

#40 Yukon Elvis on 06.20.20 at 3:31 pm

#35 hoy boy on 06.20.20 at 1:51 pm

Why should native people not have their land because your ancestors gained it?
………………………………..

Their ancestors were immigrants same as ours. They walked over from Asia. We came in ships. Nobody cares when. Lose the victim viewpoint/mentality and build for the future.

#41 IHCTD9 on 06.20.20 at 3:36 pm

#24 Sail Away on 06.20.20 at 12:17 pm
#20 IHCTD9 on 06.20.20 at 11:36 am
Those that like to read about guys roughing it out in the wilderness might find this interesting

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/into-the-wild-bus-alaska-helicopter-1.5618746

Too many rescues required and people dead trying to reach the “magic bus” where McCandless died of starvation after 114 days trying to live off the land in the Alaska back country.

I’m sure Sail Away knows this guy’s story. This one is only slightly less horrifying than the Timothy Treadwell story…

—————–

Yep, young ideological guy (18) tries to live off the land without skill or preparation. Brings .22, shoots baby moose, most of it rots due to lack of knowledge. Gets continually weaker during most productive time of the year, eats wrong plant, river too high to cross, dies in bus probably combo of starvation and plant toxins.

A book was written and he was romanticized a bit so people hike out to the old bus. The river crossing is temperamental and sometimes kills tourists.

Lots of these type stories in Alaska. Often they involve fools, damn fools, and idealists. Treadwell as a case in point
—-

Crappy way to go, he got to see his end well before it happened. Amazing how he thought he could “backpack” out into the Alaskan backwoods and survive with almost no experience or planning.

A map would have saved his life, there was a ranger station only 7 miles away from his camp, and some kind of line for crossing the Teklanika just a mile from where he crossed.

#42 NoName on 06.20.20 at 3:38 pm

#35 hoy boy on 06.20.20 at 1:51 pm

You even dont know how lucky they were probably they are fist wave that left most likely before of may 45, because some time after 1st week I’m may very bad thing happened to thousands of people by commies. Not to go in detail to graphic. Unfortunate thing is that some allied (hint big Ben) troupes gather up people fleeting commies and sent them back. In some estimation 30-50k people were killed, some kids got lucky that were sent to orfaniges while others got executed or burrued alive with parents in few different mines.

No word of the lie here…

#43 Grunt on 06.20.20 at 3:45 pm

A president’s 2nd term is usually a disaster. So one wonders about that impact on the markets given Trump’s first term.

“.. the wave of crime and corruption in America today isn’t going to be the wave of the future. ”

Remember that one?

#44 Faron on 06.20.20 at 3:55 pm

Thanks for the post Ryan. It’s not at all surprising that democratic eras outperform Republican eras equity wise. Clinton and Obama oversaw 16 years of massive economic expansion including the Clinton era’s period of a balanced federal budget and rolling back of the deficit clock. Repubs like to claim to be deficit hawks, but the federal deficit has climbed under most of them because they can’t help themselves but cut taxes for all with an emphasis in making the tax code less progressive while boosting military spending.

#45 TrendIsYourFriend on 06.20.20 at 3:59 pm

OK, boys and girls – predict we can’t. Between now and then we need to make (or at least not lose, much) some money in this market.
I propose we go through our charts amd scanners to prepare for next week, quarter end, earnings season and what not. Everything else, especially the media, is just a noise.

#46 Sail Away on 06.20.20 at 4:04 pm

#42 IHCTD9 on 06.20.20 at 3:36 pm

Crappy way to go, he got to see his end well before it happened. Amazing how he thought he could “backpack” out into the Alaskan backwoods and survive with almost no experience or planning.

A map would have saved his life, there was a ranger station only 7 miles away from his camp, and some kind of line for crossing the Teklanika just a mile from where he crossed.

—————–

Actually, survival is very easy during Alaskan summer. Food is everywhere. A person would have to work at starving in order to do so. In Alaska, McCandless is universally viewed as a naive and inept amateur. Having spent lots of time in Alaska’s backcountry, I have no idea how he could starve in summer unless it was largely intentional.

#47 Faron on 06.20.20 at 4:06 pm

#32 Sail Away on 06.20.20 at 1:12 pm
#12 Prairieboy43 on 06.20.20 at 10:45 am

“No, no there won’t. Because the right is not batshit crazy”

Yeah, nothing BSC at all about showing up at your state capital building with rifles to protest a public health response. Makes total sense.

To your credit, maybe you’re getting your cognitive dissonance machine warmed up for when you have to explain the BS that’s about to go down in Tulsa and spin it so the righty dunces look like the good, smart guys just victims of the left. Victims. Ha. Bigly.

#48 Dave on 06.20.20 at 4:10 pm

If we get another four years of this unhinged, massively incompetent, divisive sociopath, then equity returns won’t matter. He’ll destroy more global institutions, weaken the US, and generally screw things up even more.

#49 Nosferatu on 06.20.20 at 4:15 pm

Ryan,

What would be your response to news like this that ostensibly skilled and “called it right before” hedge fund bears?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-17/grantham-says-sell-u-s-stocks-to-avoid-unprecedented-bubble

thanks

#50 Paul on 06.20.20 at 4:29 pm

#5 David McDonald on 06.20.20 at 10:22 am
Thank you for the reasonable and balanced analysis. A couple days ago Garth said money had no place to go but equities and now you are saying the election is no big risk. I should be confident my investments are safe but I still am gripped by fear that we are headed into a deep recession.
————————————————————————————————
It’s all ready stated, I think it will be vary clear in the rearview mirror in December if not sooner. The populous are broke private, refinancing is way up. Commercial mortgage commitments are evaporating 21 days prior to closing with 50 % down.

#51 Paul on 06.20.20 at 4:30 pm

#5 David McDonald on 06.20.20 at 10:22 am
Thank you for the reasonable and balanced analysis. A couple days ago Garth said money had no place to go but equities and now you are saying the election is no big risk. I should be confident my investments are safe but I still am gripped by fear that we are headed into a deep recession.
————————————————————————————————
It’s all ready started, I think it will be vary clear in the rearview mirror in December if not sooner. The populous are broke private, refinancing is way up. Commercial mortgage commitments are evaporating 21 days prior to closing with 50 % down.

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.20 at 4:39 pm

@#47 Sail Away
“I have no idea how he could starve in summer unless it was largely intentional.”
+++

Total agreement.
Berries, bugs, birds, snakes, snails, the odd rabbit, fish, whatever…. takes skill to starve with all that around you.

How about the man lost in the Australian outback for almost a month…… in 40c heat.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/man-survives-almost-a-month-stranded-in-outback-eating-ants/11910576#:~:text=It%20may%20not%20have%20been,Route%20for%20nearly%20a%20month.

#53 Brian Ripley on 06.20.20 at 4:47 pm

The Trump fanboys really got excited on this post Ryan.

It’s fascinating that a Canadian blog contains so many anonymous commenters that don’t appear to have any innate sense of revulsion towards a clearly racist and misogynist compulsive liar with a serious antisocial personality disorder.

Do these commenters value Trump so highly that they model the same behaviour in their own households for how their progeny should behave in the world.

I doubt it.

Why don’t people spot the telltale signs indicating Trump’s awareness of his own lies?

The answer appears to be that for Trump there is only one reality, one truth: Donald J. Trump is the world’s greatest genius and he, and only he, can solve the problems we face. Yes, that does sound crazy.

But that’s precisely the nature of narcissistic personalities; they have delusional beliefs about their own importance and greatness.

That was a quote from a leading psychologist explaining how Trump’s self-delusions make him stunningly effective at predatory deception.” APR 6, 2020 from RawStory.com my mashup here:
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/predator-trump

#54 Marco on 06.20.20 at 4:48 pm

DELETED

#55 kingston boy on 06.20.20 at 4:48 pm

@#32 Sail Away on 06.20.20 at 1:12 pm
#12 Prairieboy43 on 06.20.20 at 10:45 am

Do you think if Biden wins, there won’t be protests and Marches.

—————-

No, no there won’t. Because the right is not batshit crazy. When aligning myself with ideologies, I try to choose the one that offers the least attraction or encouragement to sensationalism.
—-

the far right is batshit crazy though and that is trumps wheelhouse.

#56 AGuyInVancouver on 06.20.20 at 4:49 pm

#6 NFN_NLN on 06.20.20 at 10:29 am
Are you sure about those polling numbers Garth?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Hillary 85% – Trump 15%, lol
_ _ _
Wow, three pro-Trump posts all in a row. That’s an impressive record of stupidity.

I hope it is a source of great pain to Garth that there are so many fans of the worst president of all time commenting on his blog.

#57 kingston boy on 06.20.20 at 4:49 pm

@#49 Dave on 06.20.20 at 4:10 pm
If we get another four years of this unhinged, massively incompetent, divisive sociopath, then equity returns won’t matter. He’ll destroy more global institutions, weaken the US, and generally screw things up even more.

——
well, lucky for you things aren’t looking too good for agent orange.

#58 the Jaguar on 06.20.20 at 5:03 pm

Attack the poster, but provide no rebuttal to the argument. – #36 The Woosh on 06.20.20 at 2:08 pm
#9 the Jaguar
——————————————
Have an original thought. Stop being a parrot please.

Reminds me of the scene between Gable and the bus driver in It happened One Night.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kAtlL7cZOg

#59 Randy on 06.20.20 at 5:03 pm

DELETED & BANNED

#60 Flop... on 06.20.20 at 5:13 pm

Since we are talking about odds, here is the real field for today’s Belmont Stakes with s few embellishments for jockeys and owners.

Good luck…

M46BC

2020 Belmont Stakes field.

Tiz the Law….Jockey, Flop…Owned by Washed Up Lawyer.

Sole Volante , Jockey, IHCTD9 ….Owned by Ponzi

Dr Post , jockey DrV ….Owned by B.C Doc.

Tap It to Win , jockey Faron, Owned by Sail Away.

Pneumatic , jockey Crowdedelevatorfartz….Owned by Soggy Shorts.

Max Player, jockey Maxx…. Owned by No Name

Modernist , jockey Sunshowers,…owned by Tater.

Farmington Road (15-1) jockey Wrk. Dover….Owned by Cramer.

Fore Left …..Jockey Ryan Lewenza….Owned by Garth Turner

Jungle Runner , jockey The Jaguar,….owned by Billybob.

#61 Paul on 06.20.20 at 5:18 pm

First, Look to the right of “guest blogger” before calling out the wrong person.
Second, these are calculations based on party policies that could influence markets/economy and impact your portfolio. Nothing is 100% for sure.
Third, the bloggers provide insight to assist you in your financial decisions at no cost.

Garth I know you have discussed in the past about why you choose to have this open comment section. Some of us come here to benefit from your wisdom. Perhaps you should have a simple sign in option to leave comments in order to screen out the idiotic users that have nothing constructive to contribute.

#62 Ryan on 06.20.20 at 5:20 pm

Incredible all the goofs on here who think Biden is left wing.

#63 Ryan Lewenza on 06.20.20 at 5:28 pm

Nosferatu “Ryan, What would be your response to news like this that ostensibly skilled and “called it right before” hedge fund bears?”

My response would be that this is just his opinion and second he’s been bearish for a long time, in part due to concerns over valuations, and missed a lot of the great returns in this last cycle. I respect Grantham and read his research a lot but he’s not god and omniscient. – Ryan L

#64 CHRIS on 06.20.20 at 5:29 pm

Trump by a landslide . Stop watching CNN

#65 whiplash on 06.20.20 at 5:29 pm

Since this is a financial blog, Chinese company’s listed on the US stock/bond exchanges are not required to file comprehensive accounting/risk disclosure documents required by the Sarbane-Oxley Act 2002 which is law for all American corporations.
Preferential treatment for companies who are subservient to the CCP. Who would change a law that gives a communist country an edge like this?

VP Joe Biden 2013

#66 Ryan Lewenza on 06.20.20 at 5:36 pm

Ryan “Incredible all the goofs on here who think Biden is left wing.”

Agreed. He’s been a moderate for the 50+ years he’s been in politics. For some on the right, anyone that’s not “conservative” is a “leftie commie”. Growing up I always thought there was the left, the moderates and the right. Now there’s just left and right. And worse, the left won’t work with the right and vice versa. In my opinion, Washington is broken and Ottawa is not far behind.

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.20 at 5:39 pm

@#63 Paul.
“……leave comments in order to screen out the idiotic users that have nothing constructive to contribute.”
+++++

Apologies if we annoy you.
Garth is just being kind to us Covid shut-ins that cant afford cable tv……

#68 Ryan Lewenza on 06.20.20 at 5:46 pm

Chris “Trump by a landslide . Stop watching CNN”

I’ve always found it so strange that any critiques of Trump is immediately responded with “stop watching CNN and the mainstream media”. Moreover, Trump did not win by a landslide in the last election losing the popular vote and winning the key swing states by a slim margin. I put the odds of a Biden win at about 60% to Trump’s 40%, but I see it as remote that a Trump win will be a “landslide”. – Ryan L

#69 Flop... on 06.20.20 at 6:21 pm

In the United States, there is too much grass to be covered before the election to know who is going to win.

In Canada, there is too much grass…

M46BC

#70 NFN_NLN on 06.20.20 at 6:24 pm

> “But, but, b-b-but, but, b-b-b-b-but… Trump is a rich elite” the left shrieks.

(Part 2 was cut off. I’ll let people digest part 1.)

#71 Sail Away on 06.20.20 at 6:31 pm

#63 Paul on 06.20.20 at 5:18 pm

Garth I know you have discussed in the past about why you choose to have this open comment section. Some of us come here to benefit from your wisdom. Perhaps you should have a simple sign in option to leave comments in order to screen out the idiotic users that have nothing constructive to contribute.

——————-

Paul, I read your post three times, and maybe it’s me, but I saw nothing constructive.

Glass houses and all…

#72 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.20.20 at 6:36 pm

Ryan,
“In my opinion, Washington is broken and Ottawa is not far behind.
I agree about Washington, but I believe we Canadians are far less divided than the Americans.
Would like to hear what makes you say that.
Thanks

#73 Rowdie on 06.20.20 at 6:43 pm

DELETED

#74 Paul on 06.20.20 at 6:49 pm

#70 Ryan Lewenza on 06.20.20 at 5:46 pm

Chris “Trump by a landslide . Stop watching CNN”

I’ve always found it so strange that any critiques of Trump is immediately responded with “stop watching CNN and the mainstream media”. Moreover, Trump did not win by a landslide in the last election losing the popular vote and winning the key swing states by a slim margin. I put the odds of a Biden win at about 60% to Trump’s 40%, but I see it as remote that a Trump win will be a “landslide”. – Ryan L
““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““
If Trump wins by three votes that’s good enough for me.

#75 BobC on 06.20.20 at 6:53 pm

I’m asking the Trump haters to consider something. Notice all the riots are in cities and states that have been controlled by the democrats for years. Why do you think that is? After raising 6 kids it’s obvious to me. We’ve spent untold trillions since the ‘ 60s on 83 different income tested federal welfare programs, mostly matched by the states, food stamps, rent supplements, Section 8 housing, Pell grants, student loans, legal services, Medicaid, Earned Income Tax Credits and poverty programs all designed to bring the disadvantaged community into the mainstream. Governments, businesses and colleges have engaged in discrimination with affirmative action, contract set-asides and quotas, Churches, foundations, civic groups, schools and individuals all over America have donated their time and money to support soup kitchens, adult education, day care, retirement and nursing homes for the disadvantaged communities and what has changed? Nothing.
There’s 2 ways to make a slave.
Work him without pay or
Pay him without work.
Hopefully Trump will be elected again and he keeps trying to reverse the damage the left has done to our country.

#76 Covidpalooza on 06.20.20 at 6:54 pm

All the blog’s Trump fans should be in Tulsa, repping for Donnie. There’s certainly plenty of room. Live shot from BOK Center shows about half capacity crowd, and nobody outside.

Could Trump’s campaign manager have lied about the amount of enthusiasm for both Trump and Covid 19?

#77 NoName on 06.20.20 at 6:54 pm

#47 Sail Away on 06.20.20 at 4:04 pm

Starved in a summer…

It took fi e doctors of our very long time to diagnose my son with Graves disease, at age 7 he was eating multiple more than his fat father and constantly losing a weight, at some point only thing left were traces of muscles skin and bones…

That is how you can starve with plenty of food. Hyperthyroidism.

My best guess…

#78 Paul on 06.20.20 at 6:55 pm

DELETED

#79 Wrk.dover on 06.20.20 at 6:59 pm

15-1 didn’t pan out

#80 Dolce Vita on 06.20.20 at 7:06 pm

Good stuff Ryan.

On sample size, calculate the stock market returns for every President since 1792 and then sample size irrelevant since you will have the ENTIRE population.

The market on Wall Street opened May 17, 1792 on the corner of Wall Street and Broadway according to Google.

Of course, you’ll have to make some political stripe assumptions since George Washington had no party affiliation and there were Whigs, Federalists, etc. and not to mention what the indices were back then.

Less than fun project but at least you will have accounted for the entire population.

#81 Dolce Vita on 06.20.20 at 7:16 pm

As for Biden, I’d say he’s a bit “long in the tooth” – 77 years old (and no, 77 is not the new 60, all you have to do is go to a nursing home to figure that out).

If I had a vote, I’d consider his Vice Presidential running mate more than him (“Management of Succession” per the OB people).

I’d wait and see until then about passing economic judgement for a Dem President.

#82 Reximus on 06.20.20 at 7:22 pm

Trump’s campaign manager is gonna get killed…must have lied his a$$ off about the ticket requests to placate the orange man-child

Tulsa rally half-empty, and now they’ve just sent out an emergency text to try to sucker the rubes to come quickly

#83 Ace Goodheart on 06.20.20 at 7:24 pm

RE: #127 Apocalypse2020 on 06.19.20 at 10:05 pm
The virus is ramping up, dramatically.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/19/who-says-coronavirus-enters-new-and-dangerous-phase-as-daily-cases-hits-record.html

Most of you will be dead by 2022.

PREPARE

//////////////////////////////////

This virus is pretty predictable.

It peaks and then it dies away.

The media should start reporting the truth about this, as everyone has experienced it.

Every time it gets released in a new place, it behaves the same way.

#84 Dolce Vita on 06.20.20 at 7:29 pm

#74 Sail Away

Yup on the Glass Houses.

There is always somebody that thinks they are the Class Monitor or Tattletale and/or self-appointed arbitrator of all that is good and just (typically, themselves).

Probably their peak lifetime experience, waxing and pinning for those better days via this Blog.

#85 no blog for old men on 06.20.20 at 7:31 pm

@#66 CHRIS on 06.20.20 at 5:29 pm
Trump by a landslide . Stop watching CNN

——-

ya that’s what they said about hillary.

#86 no blog for old men on 06.20.20 at 7:36 pm

@#63 Paul on 06.20.20 at 5:18 pm

Garth I know you have discussed in the past about why you choose to have this open comment section. Some of us come here to benefit from your wisdom. Perhaps you should have a simple sign in option to leave comments in order to screen out the idiotic users that have nothing constructive to contribute.
——–

Paul, you need to realize the comments section here is satire. kinda like reading ‘the onion’ or ‘the beaverton’ but not as funny.

#87 NoName on 06.20.20 at 7:44 pm

#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.20.20 at 6:36 pm

Funny that you say that…

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=washington+is+broken

#88 Genesis II on 06.20.20 at 7:49 pm

Biden vs Trump – such a binary (and boring) approach!

I’m guessing on a Black-Swan political event the coming few months with a totally unexpected scenario to unfold.

Such as (hypothetical scenarios, of course, with some more likely than others…):

– Covid19+1 ie. a 2nd wave so intense that Trump declares Martial Law, or something equivalent

– Another bout of ‘the Russians interfered’ – as in V.Putin lands his helicopter on the White House and wrestles the Donald to the ground…etc etc

– the markets take another serious dive, bigger than last March, and then the Donald declares himself the ‘saviour’ by endless MMT, or equivalent…

– Hil-liary makes a comeback, somehow?

– …

A few more I could include here, but I’m out of ‘juice’ and need to recharge my (over-active) imagination

#89 ain't life rand on 06.20.20 at 7:50 pm

@#73 NFN_NLN on 06.20.20 at 6:24 pm
> “But, but, b-b-but, but, b-b-b-b-but… Trump is a rich elite” the left shrieks.

(Part 2 was cut off. I’ll let people digest part 1.)
—————–

nobody reads your nonsense.

#90 NFN_NLN on 06.20.20 at 7:51 pm

#83 Dolce Vita on 06.20.20 at 7:06 pm
Good stuff Ryan.

On sample size, calculate the stock market returns for every President since 1792 and then sample size irrelevant since you will have the ENTIRE population.

Good stuff Dolce,

Next, can you compare the stock market returns based on solar flares?

I suspect all of these models will be as useful as the COVID-19 projections Dolce was hyping months ago.

#91 Shirl Clarts on 06.20.20 at 7:53 pm

#152 SoggyShorts on 06.20.20 at 2:50 am
#54 Shirl Clarts on 06.19.20 at 5:49 pm
#13 Don Guillermo on 06.19.20 at 2:42 pm
#252 SeeB on 06.19.20 at 1:40 pm
@#108 Don Guillermo on 06.18.20 at 6:19 pm
Now, JT does the ad game with Covid-19… Can we all please stop lionizing our own personal political tribe and look at some of the most egregious common factors shared by ALL Canadian parties?
***************************************
Discussing JT in the same breath as Harper, Chretien, Mulroney, Martin etc. is ludicrous. Nothing to do with political tribe. JT is the most incompetent underqualified PM ever in Canadian history. JT had a chance to surround himself with qualified people but instead chose to spin the wheel with people based on gender, sexual preference and/or ethnicity.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Don. Ok we get it. you don’t like JT. Yikes!

But are you saying that someone is not qualified to work in government if you are a visible minority, a member of the LGBTQ, or Female?
****************************
Shirly, what are the chances that the best person qualified for every single role in JT’s cabinet was also the same as his stated quota numbers?
So aside from removing “best person for the job” as a qualifier his mandate to include 50% women in his cabinet automatically rejects any man no matter how competent once the 50% man ceiling is reached, no?
Equality does not mean choosing one over another, does it?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Yes! He did exactly the right thing. it’s different. It’s government, not a for profit corporation.

Let the people decide. if enough people like you had issues with it then ok. but obviously there are very very few of your opinion.

#92 H3 on 06.20.20 at 8:12 pm

DELETED

#93 Pastor Pederast on 06.20.20 at 8:24 pm

DELETED

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.20 at 8:32 pm

@#94 Shirl Charts
“It’s government, not a for profit corporation….”
++++
Ahahahaha
Thank you for stating the painfully obvious.

#95 MAGAts death tour begins on 06.20.20 at 8:35 pm

Who needs koolaid… just grab some HCQ pills…

#96 Lambchop on 06.20.20 at 8:43 pm

#94 Shirl Clarts on 06.20.20 at 7:53 pm
#152 SoggyShorts on 06.20.20

Shirly, what are the chances that the best person qualified for every single role in JT’s cabinet was also the same as his stated quota numbers?
So aside from removing “best person for the job” as a qualifier his mandate to include 50% women in his cabinet automatically rejects any man no matter how competent once the 50% man ceiling is reached, no?
Equality does not mean choosing one over another, does it?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Yes! He did exactly the right thing. it’s different. It’s government, not a for profit corporation.

Let the people decide. if enough people like you had issues with it then ok. but obviously there are very very few of your opinion.

__________________

I think more people are of this same opinion than you realize. Most people don’t say anything because chances are they will be called sexist, misogynist, racist, or dog knows what.

I believe the best person for the job should get the job. Any preferential treatment based on race or gender is demeaning to everyone, including the person who gets the job on anything other than merit.

It’s like fire halls that have a separate, easier tryout test for women. I want to know that if I need rescuing, the person who risks their life to come get me will be able to carry me out. If you can’t do the job, you shouldn’t get hired for the job.

#97 NoName on 06.20.20 at 8:44 pm

@flop…

WRONG

Not that jock walmart thingy, good stuff only under ormoar in camouflage tight fit breatheble two. Camo Boxerjock 2.0 Boxer Briefs, it prevents odor bacteria you can wear it for few day before peaople around you aksed you, did you too catched that whif of something funny.
If you are not in to multicolours they also have same material single colour line.

I think iam done for a day, good night all.

#98 Ryan Lewenza on 06.20.20 at 8:54 pm

Ponzious Pilatus “Ryan, “In my opinion, Washington is broken and Ottawa is not far behind.
I agree about Washington, but I believe we Canadians are far less divided than the Americans.
Would like to hear what makes you say that.
Thanks“

Just that the parties do not work together any more. Everything is so partisan that no one compromises any more. It’s really bad in the US but common here as well. That’s what I meant. – Ryan L

#99 Steve Awesome on 06.20.20 at 8:54 pm

“Now a lot can change from now till then, and as we saw in the 2017 election, polls don’t always get it right.”
————————————————
Which election in 2017?

#100 NoName on 06.20.20 at 8:58 pm

Please press play, my favorite song, slightly improved version of it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0RV0kgdqJU

#101 Yukon Elvis on 06.20.20 at 9:03 pm

#64 Ryan on 06.20.20 at 5:20 pm
Incredible all the goofs on here who think Biden is left wing.
…………………………………..

If Biden were reading this he would think you were talking about chicken wings. He can’t answer questions, explain his positions, or finish a train of thought. He has diminished capacity. He babbles. If elected he will not be the real president, there will be someone behind the curtain making the decisions. The US is in a very dark place and it could get a lot darker. I don’t care for Trump but he might be the lesser of two evils.

#102 Nosferatu on 06.20.20 at 9:08 pm

#65 Ryan L –

Thanks so much for your reply hugely appreciated!!

#103 Phylis on 06.20.20 at 9:17 pm

Garth, #95 squeaked by you.

It did. Now gone. – Garth

#104 Al on 06.20.20 at 9:41 pm

“Are you sure about those polling numbers Garth…Hillary 85% – Trump 15%, lol”

Seems that you’ve mistaken 15% with 0%, for some reason this seems common among his disciples, which you may or may not be.

#105 45north on 06.20.20 at 10:04 pm

Ryan Lewenza

I believe Trump faces an uphill battle to securing a second term. This is not a political statement, rather my current assessment of the US presidential race.

I need to look up your assessment of the risk of a widespread pandemic. One year ago.

#106 ain't life rand on 06.20.20 at 10:20 pm

hehe

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/politics/tiktok-trump-tulsa-rally-trnd/index.html

#107 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 06.20.20 at 10:24 pm

This is just the beginning, you selfish southern hillbillies.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/toronto-area-drivers-americans-being-threatened-in-ontario-s-cottage-country-1.4986572

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#108 El Presidente Clorex on 06.20.20 at 10:43 pm

Slow down the testing….. you’re making me look bad….

‘murica

#109 conan on 06.20.20 at 11:17 pm

Obviously that was Antifa, all dressed up like empty blue seats.

#110 mark on 06.20.20 at 11:22 pm

Does anyone here believe we are in a depression, words spoken by ray dalio in last several months? Makes some good points and a smart dude in general.

The game has changed, again!

M.

#111 Thomas on 06.20.20 at 11:39 pm

#35 hoy boy on 06.20.20 at 1:51 pm
#167 SoggyShorts on 06.13.20 at 11:53 am
#155 Willie the WASP on 06.13.20 at 9:03 am
#71 IHCTD9 on 06.12.20 at 5:16 pm

Why should native people not have their land because your ancestors gained it?

****************
You waited a whole week to respond and yet you didn’t even read what I wrote?

I said specifically that my ancestors lost their land in Europe, and that they had no part in anything involving North American Natives since we just got here recently, and we own no land.

The point is that if you look far enough back, all land everywhere in the world was taken from some one at some point, so how far back do you want to go?

Even among Natives themselves there have been wars and lands have been lost and won.
So you want to give a chunk of land or money to the Cree tribe because white folks took it from them? But before that, the Cree took it from the Blackfoots, so now who gets it? And so on and so on.

At some point, you have to just stop looking to the past, and just help out those in need now.

#112 Stan Brooks on 06.20.20 at 11:40 pm

Hm, Ray Dalio is predicting a coming lost decade in stocks with very little real returns.

Looking at Japan’s stock market within zero rates environment he could be right.

My gut feeling is that there is some upside left but some people who know what they are talking about warn of coming severe decline after that, something like SPX (currently at 3000) going to 4000, maybe even 5000 in the next 2-4 years and then declining to 1800-2000 after that.

Basically major risk combined with expected volatility, currency decline and very high likelihood of major stagflation. Or if the uncertainty persists inflationary depression in some places.

The biggest question is what will drive consumption with bankrupted and jobless consumers and governments already stretched with record deficits at zero rates and at which point will the currency stop to be elastic and brakes as inflation roars and gold skyrockets (according to Jeff Gunglah)?

My primary indicator of reality is the price of real food (not GMO crap) and that is not looking good lately.

It seems to me that some international diversification is needed and some customized portfolio in order for the investors to be able to stomach volatility as we clearly are in uncharted waters now and in the next decade.

With the jobs gone and the accelerating mass exodus from major metro ares the big cities will look very, very different in the future.

Cheers,

#113 SoggyShorts on 06.20.20 at 11:53 pm

#94 Shirl Clarts on 06.20.20 at 7:53 pm
#152 SoggyShorts on 06.20.20 at 2:50 am
#54 Shirl Clarts on 06.19.20 at 5:49 pm
#13 Don Guillermo on 06.19.20 at 2:42 pm
#252 SeeB on 06.19.20 at 1:40 pm
@#108 Don Guillermo on 06.18.20 at 6:19 pm

****************************
Shirly, what are the chances that the best person qualified for every single role in JT’s cabinet was also the same as his stated quota numbers?
So aside from removing “best person for the job” as a qualifier his mandate to include 50% women in his cabinet automatically rejects any man no matter how competent once the 50% man ceiling is reached, no?
Equality does not mean choosing one over another, does it?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Yes! He did exactly the right thing. it’s different. It’s government, not a for profit corporation.

Let the people decide. if enough people like you had issues with it then ok. but obviously there are very very few of your opinion.
**************************
“Obviously” how? I see no eveidence that people agree with hiring the second best or even worse based on what is in their pants.
Most Canadians did not vote Liberal, and I’ve also never spoken to anyone in real life who actually though that preventing the best person for doing a job from doing it was a good thing.

So why was it “the right thing”? Why is it better to have a group of 50/50 men and women who are “ok” at what they do instead of 60/40 or 70/30 but they are ALL the BEST at what they do?
Why do you want the people making important decisions about the lives of millions to be underqualified? Why don’t you want the best people doing this?

#114 Flail Away on 06.20.20 at 11:53 pm

Drudge Report proclaims MAGA LESS MEGA!

Trump fails to draw a crowd – the usual excuses and blame everybody else (Antifa, BLM, MSM) follows.

Maybe the crowd was made up of dark matter or the silent and clearly invisible majority.

Did Trump’s #1 FanBoy on the blog predict this result?

I think Sunday will be a fun day on Twitter.

#115 Dead Cat Bounce on 06.20.20 at 11:55 pm

Trump will win ! Polls are fake, always have been

M57BC

#116 Wisdom Spreaders on 06.21.20 at 12:17 am

Hey crowded fartz.. this one’s for you………….

https://twitter.com/RobertKlemko/status/1274352557956247556

#117 Al on 06.21.20 at 12:53 am

Tulsa LOL!… Seems like those polls may not be so far off, too bad the similarly senescent one is the other option. The plutocrats still have that country on leash. You may choose any flavor you want, as long as we like it.

#118 Jack Fulbear on 06.21.20 at 1:16 am

DELETED

#119 Sky on 06.21.20 at 5:16 am

I doubt Trump will pull off a win. Captain America First promised his people the wall, a crackdown on online censorship, the greatest economy ever, Hillary marched off to jail. Law and order.

But what did they get instead? Sanctuary cities. A ramp up in censorship, shadow banning and deplatforming. An enormous pile of debt. Trump’s impeachment. Riots, looting and the BLM/SJW occupied territory of Seattle.

And it wasn’t Xi Jinping who ordered the USA lockdown which put a bullet through the heart of many of his supporters – the small businesses. No. That was brought to you by the lies of Fauci and Birx who Trump easily ceded his leadership to.

It should be clear to everyone that presidents have limited power, at best. The USA Congress is a writhing snake pit of devious schemers and corrupt backstabbers. And I’m talking about BOTH Republicans and Democrats here. Good luck controlling that mess.

The TRUE power lies within the military, the courts, MSM, universities pumping out SJWs (our future), big tech, corporate lobbyists, intergenerational bureaucracies/agencies and of course – the Fed. Minus a few swap outs, most of these people were in place before Trump was elected. They were there during his presidency. And they’ll still be running the show long after he’s gone.

Trump was an utter fool not to recognize what he was up against and to chart a different path forward. Instead, he chose to run his mouth, his Twitter account and his fundraising rallies. Too bad. So sad. For all of us.

Nobody’s cheering harder for a Trump win than the media. Don’t buy their act. Trump’s their King Midas of TV ratings. And ratings are what they care most about.

Going forward, the media will be lost without 24/7 racist-sexist-white supremacist-Russian agent Trump hatred. What will they replace all that hyperbolic scorn with? Democrat tax policies, CO2 emissions and hurricane coverage? ZZZZZZZ.

And the market? The market doesn’t give a flying fart who wins as long as the Fed keeps backstopping it with QE to infinity. Which I imagine it will. So it looks like the market may be the only winner in the dark winter which lies ahead of us.

I sometimes refer to Trump as ” The Exorcist.” He’s called forth and exposed many evils. But he can’t control, let alone defeat, the demons he summoned. So what was the point? It’s resulted only in chaos. Trump didn’t drain the swamp. It drained him. That’s what happens to failed exorcists.

#120 Stop wasting our time on 06.21.20 at 6:25 am

Flop, stop wasting our time with your useless comments that have nothing to do with the subject. Filters on.

#121 Gravy Train on 06.21.20 at 6:42 am

#123 Sky on 06.21.20 at 5:16 am
“[…] Trump didn’t drain the swamp.[…]” You still don’t get it, do you? Trump IS the swamp! :P

“An insistent and defiant and proudly unteachable stupidity locks [Trumpism] all into place.” — David Roth

#122 NoName on 06.21.20 at 6:51 am

#123 Sky on 06.21.20 at 5:16 am
I doubt Trump will pull off a win. Captain America First promised his people the wall, a crackdown on online censorship, the greatest economy ever,…

Big tech antitrust it’s coming its probably closer than you think. And by the looks of it both sides are going after it.

Read here
https://mattstoller.substack.com/

#123 Sky on 06.21.20 at 8:26 am

# 125 Gravy Train :

“You still don’t get it, do you? Trump IS the swamp! ”

******************

His presidency is looking swampier all the time. I’ll give you that. But there could be any number of reasons for that, including blackmail and threats to his family.

If Trump (as a 2016 candidate) was part of the swamp club to begin with… then why did the most powerful Republicans and big tech meet in secret in the spring of 2016 and plot to stop him? Given his popularity with the voters, wouldn’t they just have invited him into their den of power and corruption with open arms?

Explain this to us please:

“Billionaires, tech CEOs and top members of the Republican establishment flew to a private island resort off the coast of Georgia this weekend for the American Enterprise Institute’s annual World Forum…”

“The main topic at the closed-to-the-press confab? How to stop Republican front-runner Donald Trump ”

“Apple CEO Tim Cook, Google co-founder Larry Page, Napster creator and Facebook investor Sean Parker, and Tesla Motors and SpaceX honcho Elon Musk all attended. So did Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), political guru Karl Rove, House Speaker Paul Ryan, GOP Sens. Tom Cotton (Ark.), Cory Gardner (Colo.), Tim Scott (S.C.), Rob Portman (Ohio) and Ben Sasse (Neb.), who recently made news by saying he “cannot support Donald Trump.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/aei-world-forum-donald-trump_n_56ddbd38e4b0ffe6f8ea125d?ri18n=true&guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANDaYVWv6xwqLx71RROAfzWTboVizDFUraNeaXRcdGrt3geibpSorhAs2uHEIsqtC3QRSBE0Qk9BM1PCGEu0C83a2iu_Dq62dUAi8CWJdRDHG6ufWQiRwFvKxOygx3VDeeLKFoK8Byniz04kUSM15dwZoTFqAibspTzzWKtWvfb8

(what a ghastly link)

#124 Do we have all the facts on 06.21.20 at 8:36 am

When the underlying assets that support the marketing of “securities” are seriously leaking oil I find it curious that the general public have no trouble believing that all companies that were profitable in past will become profitable again in the future.

Would you buy a car that had a number of serious mechanical problems without a professional assessment of the cost of resolving the problems.

Would you trust the person selling a car if he told you that mechanical problems were nothing to worry about. Probably not!

What I am hearing from individuals involved in the selling of “securities” and “real” estate is that the value of their products has always recovered from temporary losses and that past performance is the best way to predict future performance.

The full impact of the impulsive decision to lockdown the World economy to slow the spread of Covid 19 remains to be seen. The massive increase in money supply around the world through the assumption of debt may have mitigated the impact of the lockdown but the true extent of the damage is yet to emerge from the smoke and mirrors.

The whole world is acting like the printing of trillions of dollars out of thin air has no long term consequences. This confidence is based on an assumption that once the a Covid 19 crisis is over the global economy will continue to expand and that economic growth will cover additional debt servicing costs.

Past growth within the Canadian economy was achieved through;

– domestic consumption, supported by one of the highest household debt to income ratios in the world,

– the development / sale of CO2 generating hydrocarbons

– a robust housing industry driven by immigration, low interest rates and and attractive monetary policies,

80% of the Canadian economy is driven by the service sectors and 20 % by the production of goods.

We have arrived at the threshold of household debt. No growth potential there.

Worldwide Hydrocarbon supply exceeds demand and fears about global warming will reduce demand in the future. No growth potential there.

Unemployment levels have increased and employment participation rates have decreased to the point where 8,000,000 Canadians required Government support. Disposal income to support Domestic consumption is shrinking. No immediate potential for growth there

Interest rates at historic lows with little room to go any lower. Little or no room to stimulate economic growth there.

Debt levels of all governments have escalated to the point where bond ratings are under scrutiny. The ability to stimulate growth of our economy through additional debt has been reduced. Attempts to raise additional revenue through taxation will reduce domestic consumption and slow economic growth. Limited potential for economic growth there.

In short we are looking a potential economic crisis in the eye and it may be time to ask for unbiased opinions of what the future might hold.

Confidence can only take us so far

minor and who told you in the buying into the premise that if it was ticking on all cylinders yesterday it will

#125 Dharma Bum on 06.21.20 at 9:53 am

Predictions:

No matter who wins the presidential election, the stock market will continue its upward rise well into the future.

Regardless of a Republican or Democrat controlled house, senate, or office, the U.S. will continue to become evermore steeped in systemic racism, notwithstanding temporary outrage and protests. It’s just what the U.S. is.

#126 Tik tok tik tok on 06.21.20 at 10:26 am

Score one for the zoomers…… donnie is gonna be pissed… is there anyone left he can fire?

Biden just don’t pick a commie for VP…

#127 Gravy Train on 06.21.20 at 10:49 am

#127 Sky on 06.21.20 at 8:26 am
“His presidency is looking swampier all the time. I’ll give you that.” Duh! :P

“But there could be any number of reasons for that, including blackmail and threats to his family.” WTF?

“If Trump (as a 2016 candidate) was part of the swamp club to begin with…” I never said he was part of the existing political establishment, but that he is his own swamp with his own swamp creatures (e.g., Michael Flynn, Scott Pruitt, Tom Price, Michael Cohen, Lev Parnas, etc., etc.).

“[…] then why did the most powerful Republicans and big tech meet in secret in the spring of 2016 and plot to stop him?” Sorry, but Mitch McConnell is now his most ardent supporter. Facebook hasn’t screened out any of his inane and insane posts based on its own content review policies and guidelines. Twitter only just recently started to put warning labels on his tweets.

“Given his popularity with the voters, wouldn’t they just have invited him into their den of power and corruption with open arms?” Were you asleep during his impeachment trial? The Senate Republicans didn’t admit any testimony into evidence (didn’t want to hear it)! I began to think he could’ve shot someone on Fifth Avenue and got away with it! :P

“Explain this to us please […].” Two SCOTUS cases involving Trump—a criminal case and his tax returns—will be decided this month. I was pleased with how SCOTUS decided many other cases this month. Maybe the trend will continue. :P

“The arc of the moral universe is long, but bends towards justice.” — Martin Luther King, Jr.

#128 Fused on 06.21.20 at 10:53 am

/www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/condo-insurance-canada_ca_5de813a3e4b0913e6f8a235c

#129 Shirl Clarts on 06.21.20 at 11:22 am

#117 SoggyShorts on 06.20.20 at 11:53 pm
#94 Shirl Clarts on 06.20.20 at 7:53 pm
#152 SoggyShorts on 06.20.20 at 2:50 am
#54 Shirl Clarts on 06.19.20 at 5:49 pm
#13 Don Guillermo on 06.19.20 at 2:42 pm
#252 SeeB on 06.19.20 at 1:40 pm
@#108 Don Guillermo on 06.18.20 at 6:19 pm

****************************
Shirly, what are the chances that the best person qualified for every single role in JT’s cabinet was also the same as his stated quota numbers?
So aside from removing “best person for the job” as a qualifier his mandate to include 50% women in his cabinet automatically rejects any man no matter how competent once the 50% man ceiling is reached, no?
Equality does not mean choosing one over another, does it?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Yes! He did exactly the right thing. it’s different. It’s government, not a for profit corporation.

Let the people decide. if enough people like you had issues with it then ok. but obviously there are very very few of your opinion.
**************************
“Obviously” how? I see no eveidence that people agree with hiring the second best or even worse based on what is in their pants.
Most Canadians did not vote Liberal, and I’ve also never spoken to anyone in real life who actually though that preventing the best person for doing a job from doing it was a good thing.

So why was it “the right thing”? Why is it better to have a group of 50/50 men and women who are “ok” at what they do instead of 60/40 or 70/30 but they are ALL the BEST at what they do?
Why do you want the people making important decisions about the lives of millions to be underqualified? Why don’t you want the best people doing this?

^^^^^^^^
99% of the time members of parliament form cabinet. Chosen by the people. mic drop.

See Selection and Structure
Cabinet of Canada – Wikipedia
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Canada

#130 Terry on 06.21.20 at 4:09 pm

Trump has this election all wrapped up! Democrats/Liberals/Socialists are mostly damaged goods everywhere you go. Everyone can see that now. You got the helm again Mr. Trump. 4 more years…………..Good Job! Keep up the great work! America forever!

#131 Sydneysider on 06.21.20 at 6:32 pm

” In fact, this was the largest mass gathering on the planet since the pandemic arrived”

The Vancouver march 2 weeks ago (can’t remember what that one was about) is also estimated to have drawn 10,000 people. About 6000 turned out for last week’s racism march.

People here march a lot.

#132 Ramshackle on 06.22.20 at 9:16 am

According to the forecast its going to be great summer weekend.

We’ve invited four couples to stay at our cottage for the weekend. PARTY TIME!

BBQ Beer and Wine.

Maybe even a bikini or three!

We’ll shop local of course…spread the good cheer and support the local economy!

I wish we could invite every blog dog (well, almost) to come play.

Enjoy!